Key Facts CertiK announced the launch of CertiK Hunt on 1 July 2026, an invite-only platform connecting vetted security researchers with Web3 projects. Projects can launch bug bounty programs, audit competitions and AI challenges through the platform, with more features planned. The invite-only model is designed to combat spam and low-quality submissions; researchers are vetted on technical expertise, track record and reputation, and projects are reviewed before launching programs. CertiK independently reproduces and rates every finding, setting severity itself rather than leaving it to the protocol, to prevent disputed or downgraded payouts. Quoted are Margarita Kadochnikova, Head of Communications, and Hudson Jameson, Head of Ecosystem at CertiK; the firm reports having secured 5,181 projects and assessed over $500 billion since 2018. CertiK has launched CertiK Hunt, an invite-only platform connecting elite security researchers with Web3 projects, the firm announced on 1 July 2026. Through the platform, projects can run bug bounty programs, audit competitions and AI challenges — with the gating mechanism, vetted researchers and independent CertiK triage all designed to solve a problem that has dogged bug bounties for years: too much noise, too little signal.
Why invite-only The defining feature of CertiK Hunt is its exclusivity. Only approved security researchers can participate, evaluated on technical expertise, previous findings, track record and reputation within the security community. Projects joining the platform are also reviewed before launching programs, creating a vetted environment on both sides of the marketplace.
The rationale is to combat one of the biggest challenges facing bug bounty programs: the large volumes of spam and low-quality submissions that flood open platforms. For project security teams, sifting genuine vulnerabilities from noise is a significant operational drain. By restricting participation to vetted researchers, CertiK is betting that a smaller, higher-quality pool produces more impactful findings and far less wasted triage effort — a network, as the company frames it, defined by signal rather than volume.
Independent triage to prevent payout disputes The second structural feature addresses a long-running source of friction in bug bounties: disputes over severity and payouts. On CertiK Hunt, every submission is independently reviewed by CertiK, which reproduces and rates each finding and sets the severity assessment itself — not the protocol. Accepted findings are then paid out under responsible disclosure.
That independent-arbiter role is the point. Margarita Kadochnikova, Head of Communications at CertiK, framed it around fairness to researchers. “We’ve seen too many cases across the industry where security researchers submit valid vulnerabilities only to face disputes or delayed payouts,” she said. “CertiK Hunt is built to create a trusted environment where high-quality researchers can focus on finding impactful vulnerabilities, projects receive meaningful security insights, and both sides know the rules will be applied fairly.”
By placing severity assessment with a neutral third party rather than the project paying the bounty, CertiK removes the structural incentive for a protocol to quietly negotiate a finding’s severity down to reduce its payout — one of the most common complaints researchers raise about self-run bounty programs.
Continuous security over one-time audits The launch reflects a broader industry shift from one-time audits toward continuous security. Hudson Jameson, Head of Ecosystem at CertiK, positioned the platform within that transition. “CertiK Hunt is the next step in our mission to secure the Web3 ecosystem,” he said. “By building a network defined by signal and quality rather than volume, we are creating a platform where the best researchers can do their most impactful work, while giving projects greater confidence in the security of their code.”
CertiK Hunt extends the traditional security audit by providing continuous, researcher-driven testing throughout an application’s lifecycle. By combining formal audits with ongoing bug bounty programs, audit competitions and AI-powered security initiatives, the platform is designed to help projects strengthen their security posture long after code is deployed — addressing the reality that a point-in-time audit cannot catch vulnerabilities introduced by later code changes or surfaced by novel attack techniques.
The timing: a rising cost of undiscovered bugs The launch comes after another year in which billions of dollars were lost to exploits across the Web3 ecosystem. As digital asset markets mature, regulatory scrutiny increases, and protocols grow more complex, the cost of undiscovered vulnerabilities continues to rise — making continuous, high-quality security testing more valuable than ever.
CertiK’s own research has documented the shifting threat landscape driving that cost. Its 2026 Skynet stablecoin threat report found wallet compromise overtaking code vulnerabilities as the dominant exploit vector, while its earlier regulatory report found infrastructure compromises drove 76% of 2025 on-chain losses by value. CertiK Hunt fits a wider expansion of CertiK’s product suite beyond audits — including its recent Skill Scanner for AI agents — as the firm builds out continuous, lifecycle-spanning security infrastructure.
FAQ What is CertiK Hunt?
CertiK Hunt is an invite-only Web3 security platform, launched on 1 July 2026, that connects vetted security researchers with Web3 projects. Projects can run bug bounty programs, audit competitions and AI challenges, with every submission independently reproduced and severity-rated by CertiK before reaching the project team.
Why is CertiK Hunt invite-only?
The invite-only model is designed to combat the spam and low-quality submissions that flood open bug bounty platforms. Researchers are vetted on technical expertise, previous findings, track record and reputation, and participating projects are also reviewed — creating a trusted environment focused on high-quality, impactful findings rather than submission volume.
How does CertiK Hunt handle payout disputes?
CertiK independently reviews every submission, reproducing each finding and setting its severity assessment rather than leaving that to the protocol paying the bounty. Accepted findings are paid out under responsible disclosure. This neutral-arbiter approach is designed to prevent the severity downgrades and payout disputes that researchers commonly encounter on self-run programs.
CertiK Hunt reflects a maturing view of Web3 security: that protecting protocols handling billions in value requires continuous, vetted, researcher-driven testing rather than a single pre-launch audit. Whether the invite-only model can scale enough researcher supply to meet project demand — without sacrificing the exclusivity that defines it — will be the key question as the platform grows. This article is informational and does not constitute investment or security advice.
Credit Agricole has entered the euro-pegged stablecoin market. (Kwami Fattah Al Sissi/Unsplash)Summary
Crédit Agricole introduced the EURO eXchange Token (EURXT), a euro-pegged, MiCA-compliant stablecoin issued on Ethereum by its asset-servicing arm, Caceis.EURXT debuted with 20 million tokens in circulation, backed 1:1 by euro reserves at Caceis Bank, according to data on the project's website.The token joins a market already populated by SocGen's EURCV and Circle's EURC and targeted by a group of 37 banks working together as Qivalis.Crédit Agricole (ACA), France's second-largest bank by assets, unveiled a euro-pegged stablecoin, a rival to offerings from smaller peer Société Générale (GLE) and Circle Internet (CRCL) in a market that's also targeted by Qivalis, a group of 37 European banks that plans to introduce its own contender later this year.
The coin, EURO eXchange Token (EURXT), is pegged 1:1 to the euro and complies with the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, according to a post on the website of its asset servicing unit, Caceis Bank, which is issuing the token. It has already been used to settle a subscription into a tokenized Amundi money market fund.
There are 20 million EURXT in circulation on Ethereum, backed 1:1 by euro reserves held by Caceis Bank. The compares with about 378 million of Circle's EURC and 124 million of SocGen's EURCV.
The euro stablecoin market has grown substantially since MiCA rules governing the tokens took effect a year ago, with market capitalization more than doubling in 12 months, according to a DECTA study. Even so, the market is tiny compared with the U.S. dollar-pegged token arena dominated by Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC, at just 0.5% of market share.
Amundi is one of the region's largest asset managers, with 2.4 trillion euros ($2.73 trillion) in assets under management. The firm debuted a tokenized share class for its flagship euro cash fund on Ethereum last year.
Crédit Agricole said the token fits into its ACT 2028 plan, which includes a broader push into tokenized finance.
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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Jun 30, 2026
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Why it matters:
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
While plenty of investors spent June nervously watching screens, Cathie Wood was shopping. ARK Invest purchased cryptocurrency-related shares during the month, with approximately $44 million of that going into Coinbase — though this aggregate figure remains unconfirmed by the underlying trade disclosures.
Inside the buying spree ARK’s daily trade disclosures paint a picture of methodical accumulation rather than a single dramatic move. In mid-June, the firm scooped up approximately 111,799 shares of Coinbase worth around $18.4 million.
Then, on June 25-26, ARK went back for seconds. The firm added another 77,380 Coinbase shares valued at roughly $11.5 million across those two trading days.
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Earlier in the month, smaller transactions had already started the buying campaign. Those included a purchase of 30,763 shares, with various trades during that stretch valued between $6.7 million and $10.2 million.
Coinbase wasn’t the only target either. ARK also added to its position in Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin that trades under the ticker CRCL. Across all crypto-related names, ARK added approximately $43 million within just a span of three trading days alone.
The Cathie Wood playbook ARK has historically maintained a sizeable position in Coinbase, treating the exchange as a core bet on crypto infrastructure. The firm has adjusted its Coinbase position during volatile stretches before, sometimes trimming during rallies and adding during sell-offs. June’s activity fits neatly into that pattern.
ARK first established a significant position in Coinbase around its direct listing in 2021 and has continued to show commitment to the company through various market fluctuations in 2025 and 2026.
What this means for investors ARK’s daily trade transparency, which is relatively unusual among active managers, means that every purchase becomes a public statement of conviction.
The Circle position also deserves attention. Stablecoin infrastructure has become one of the fastest-growing segments of the digital asset economy, and Circle’s public listing gave traditional investors a direct way to gain exposure. ARK adding to that name alongside Coinbase suggests the firm is constructing a broader portfolio thesis around crypto financial infrastructure.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bull Case Intact Despite Slowing Capital EfficiencyBitcoin's ($BTC) long-term bull thesis remains intact, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, even as the market grapples with declining capital efficiency and sustained selling pressure from early holders.
Ki argues that the current distribution phase is not a sign of structural failure, but rather a broad transfer of supply from long-term Bitcoin holders and miners to US financial institutions and spot ETFs. Ki Young Ju has described Bitcoin's current distribution phase as a major transfer of supply from old market participants to US financial institutions, ETFs, and new long-term holders, arguing that selling by Bitcoin OGs and long-time miners is part of a broad change of hands rather than evidence that the asset has exhausted its cycle.
The scale of institutional absorption underpins his confidence. Since January 2023, Strategy has bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, while ETFs absorbed a further 509,102 BTC between March 2024 and mid-2025, bringing combined absorption to roughly 1,240,808 BTC, yet price returned to near the same level.
Institutional Depth, Not Retail Demand, Is the Key TriggerFor Ki, the next major rally will not be driven by the same retail-led ETF demand that characterized earlier phases of the current cycle. Instead, he argues that the composition of holders matters more than the raw volume of capital entering the market.
If the new owners are institutions capable of attracting larger pools of liquidity over time, he argues, the transition could ultimately support another upward cycle, noting that "for any asset, what ultimately matters is who holds it."
Ki estimates that Bitcoin could enter another parabolic phase if it absorbs more than $1 trillion in realized capital. That threshold has already been approached. Bitcoin's realized capitalization reached an all-time high of $1.125 trillion as of late 2025, a metric that values each bitcoin at the price it last moved, highlighting actual capital inflows rather than speculative price action.
Ki also pointed to gold's roughly $27 trillion market value as a long-run benchmark, suggesting significant room remains for Bitcoin to grow if institutional adoption deepens. As Bitcoin matures, its price behavior is diverging from previous cycles, with the asset reaching an all-time high market cap of approximately $2.5 trillion as of October 2025, making it significantly larger in scale and more liquid than before.
The picture is not without risk. CryptoQuant data shows overall Bitcoin demand, including speculative and spot demand, contracting at a monthly pace of roughly 232,000 BTC, with analysts arguing the correction is tied directly to demand conditions rather than equities or broader macro indicators. Ki himself has warned that a prolonged sideways market, rather than a sharp crash, could prove the harder test for the current cycle's structural supports.
Sources
Bitcoin's Great Wealth Transfer May Fuel Next Rally, Says CryptoQuant CEO (NewsBTC via TradingView)
Bitcoin's Realized Cap Holds at Record High Over $1 Trillion (CoinDesk)
Is Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Over? (Fidelity Digital Assets)
Key Takeaways INTC shares declined nearly 2% in Wednesday’s premarket session, retreating from levels near its 52-week peak of $142.35 The chipmaker posted a remarkable 216% gain in Q2 2026, boosting its market capitalization by approximately $480 billion amid AI infrastructure demand CNBC’s Jim Cramer highlighted Intel as his top technology performer for the quarter, praising CEO Lip-Bu Tan and identifying three crucial growth catalysts The company reports Q2 results on July 23; Wall Street projects EPS of $0.19 compared to a $0.10 loss last year, with revenue forecasted at $14.40 billion Analyst consensus sits at Hold with a mean price target of $93.93, significantly beneath current price levels Intel (INTC) shares changed hands at $137.44 during Wednesday’s premarket trading, declining 1.57%, as market participants secured profits following an extraordinary rally in the semiconductor space.
Intel Corp., INTC
The retreat follows INTC’s spectacular 216% advance in Q2 2026, which added approximately $480 billion to its market valuation. Such powerful moves typically trigger profit-taking activity, particularly when broader market indicators show weakness.
Nasdaq futures declined 0.54% while S&P 500 futures dropped 0.31%, creating headwinds for technology shares ahead of the opening bell.
Intel’s ascent wasn’t a solo performance. Micron and AMD also more than tripled throughout the quarter, with the trio collectively generating nearly $2 trillion in added market value. These companies now hold positions as the 10th, 11th, and 12th largest U.S. technology firms by valuation.
What sparked the surge? A significant capital rotation away from AI hyperscalers toward companies manufacturing the underlying infrastructure — hardware manufacturers, chip packaging operations, and foundry businesses.
Barclays analyst Anshul Gupta explained to CNBC that capital flowed into hardware suppliers essential for AI infrastructure development. This trend favored Intel along with Marvell, Arm Holdings, AMD, and Micron.
Cramer Names Intel His Top Choice CNBC’s Jim Cramer designated Intel as the premier technology winner of Q2, highlighting three distinct catalysts: the company’s CPU dominance in AI agents, its profitable chip packaging division, and expanding foundry capabilities.
Cramer attributed the turnaround to CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s leadership and categorized Intel alongside Sandisk, Micron, Marvell, and AMD as essential suppliers benefiting from widespread semiconductor demand.
He characterized Intel as “a national treasure,” emphasizing its potential contribution to resolving the industry’s memory supply constraints.
Intel’s latest quarterly performance supported this optimism. The company delivered Q1 EPS of $0.29, substantially exceeding the $0.01 consensus forecast. Revenue reached $13.58 billion, surpassing the $12.32 billion estimate and representing a 7.4% year-over-year increase.
Q2 Results Expected July 23 The upcoming critical milestone is Q2 earnings scheduled for July 23. Wall Street anticipates EPS of $0.19, contrasting with a $0.10 loss in the same quarter last year. Revenue is estimated at $14.40 billion, up from $12.86 billion in the comparable prior-year quarter.
From a technical perspective, shares are trading roughly 13% above the 20-day moving average of $121.79 and approximately 132% above the 200-day moving average of $59.34. The MACD indicator stays above its signal line, indicating sustained momentum despite the recent pullback.
Market participants are monitoring resistance around $141.50. Clearing that threshold would bring the 52-week high of $142.35 into focus.
Analyst perspectives appear more reserved than price performance implies. The consensus stands at Hold, with a mean price target of $93.93 — substantially below current trading prices.
Recent target adjustments paint a contrasting picture: Bank of America lifted its target to $160 with a Buy rating on June 23, Goldman Sachs initiated coverage at $150 Neutral on June 25, and Cantor Fitzgerald elevated its target to $150 Neutral on June 29.
Walker Asset Management revealed a fresh $235,000 position in Intel during Q1, while institutional investors collectively control 64.53% of outstanding shares.
Morpho (MORPHO) price is up by 13% today, July 1, to trade at $2.11 at the time of writing. The gains come after Standard Chartered forecast that Morpho could reach $60 by 2030.
Standard Chartered’s forecast has also led to Morpho’s open interest rising by 33% to $40 million at press time, per Coinglass data, while derivatives trading volumes had jumped by 155%.
Standard Chartered Initiates Morpho Coverage with $60 Price Target Analyst Geoff Kendrick from Standard says that the price of Morpho will rise by 2,900% and reach $60 by 2030.
In a note to clients, Kendrick opined that Morpho is well positioned to dominate two fast-rising sectors in Web3: decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenization.
“Given its status as one of the largest DeFi lending protocols and its comfortable financial position, we think Morpho can scale to meet the expanding base of assets deployed in DeFi,” Kendrick said.
Data from DeFiLlama shows that Morpho currently ranks as the third-largest DeFi protocol after Lido and Aave, with a total value locked (TVL) of $6.52 billion.
DeFi Protocols by Ranking Kendrick says that this TVL could increase by 37 times by 2030 from the current $6.52 billion and reach $241 billion by 2030. The analyst had earlier said that Ethereum would also outperform Bitcoin because of the growth of the DeFi industry.
Standard Chartered’s bullish outlook towards Morpho price comes as Wall Street banks slash their targets towards Bitcoin and Ethereum.
CoinGape reported that Citigroup forecasts that Bitcoin price slashed its target on Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000, while Ethereum’s target was slashed from $3,175 to $2,240.
What to Expect From Morpho Price in the Near Term As Standard Chartered forecasts that the price of Morpho will reach $60, the short-term outlook also paints a bullish picture because the token has created a double-bottom pattern.
Morpho price created the first bottom on June 6 when it dropped to $1.58. It tested this support of $1.58 again on June 23 and created a second bottom.
The neckline resistance of this double bottom pattern is at $2.17, and the price of Morpho tested this obstacle on July 1 after the bullish forecast by Standard Chartered.
If Morpho can move above $2.17 and make three straight daily closes above this line, it could rise by 37% and reach $2.98.
The RSI reading at 63 suggests that the momentum is favoring bulls. That could draw in more buyers that might push the price to the target of the double bottom pattern at $2.98.
Morpho Price Chart However, the ADX line that is dropping suggests that the upward trend that saw MORPHO price reach the double bottom’s neckline resistance of $2.17 is weak, and the move to $2.98 might not happen in the near term if buying pressure weakens.
Still, Morpho continues to benefit from new exchange listings after CoinGape reported that Upbit listed MORPHO on June 29, with such listings increasing the token’s volumes that may in turn aid a strong uptrend.
Morpho Token Derivatives Market Analysis Data from Coinglass shows that the demand for Morpho by derivatives traders has increased because the open interest has increased by 33% to $40 million. This open interest stood at $28 million on June 24.
Morpho Derivatives Data However, the long/short ratio of 0.97 shows that there are still more short sellers than long buyers, suggesting that traders are skeptical that the buy-side pressure that has emerged after Standard Chartered forecast that Morpho price will reach $60 will last.
A Substantial Crypto StakeThe Executive Branch Personnel Public Financial Disclosure Report (OGE Form 278e) covering the 2025 calendar year was officially received by the OGE on June 29, 2026, after the Vice President was “granted a 45-day extension to file.”
This substantial holding explicitly links a top executive branch official to the digital currency market.
Broader Financial ManeuversBeyond his cryptocurrency stash, the Vice President‘s disclosure outlines a series of traditional market transactions executed throughout 2025.
While Vance held his crypto assets, he actively deployed capital into large blocks of index funds and sold off specific venture capital interests.
Most notably, on a single day—June 27, 2025—Vance executed purchases across major exchange-traded funds that exceeded $1.25 million in combined minimum value.
Key 2025 TransactionsThe following table outlines the most significant non-crypto trades disclosed in the Vice President’s filing.
These purchases demonstrate that while the Vice President maintains a footprint in the digital asset space with Bitcoin, the volume of his recent transactional portfolio remains heavily anchored in mainstream, diversified index funds.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Each and every story begins with a memorable scene or a unique setting.
For Web3 gaming in the Philippines, that scene played out in countless Filipino homes during the pandemic: students and workers, confined by lockdowns, discovered they could earn and build value together.
What started as a curious blend of gaming and crypto would later explode into a cultural phenomenon.
But this was just the proverbial testing ground. Fast forward to late 2024, the scene has matured far beyond those early play-to-earn days.
While the initial gold rush may have cooled, something more substantial has taken root. The Philippines, which served as ground zero for this experiment in digital economies of scale, has maintained its position as the world's most engaged market for Web3 gaming for three consecutive years.
Pioneers through the yearsNow, Yield Guild Games (YGG), which pioneered the guild model that mobilized thousands of gamers into communities, is scaling its vision beyond gaming.
In an exclusive interview with Decrypt, Yield Guild Games’ Founder Gabby Dizon spoke with the easy confidence of someone who's watched a wild idea grow into a movement.
"We've always had guild communities as part of YGG since day one," explains Gabby Dizon. "First we started with Axie [with] the scholarship program, then we expanded to other games and added questing and reputation on top of that."
It is with this early model that YGG conceptualized Onchain Guilds, a platform that enables collectives to build and manage their reputation through verifiable records of their work and achievements on the blockchain.
Whether you're a gaming team, an artist, or a group of content creators, the platform provides tools to track contributions, manage shared assets, and access opportunities across YGG's network of partners.
Think of it like LinkedIn meets Discord, but with actual proofs of what you've achieved.
"The reputation is onchain for everyone to see," Dizon notes, explaining how groups can now build trackable histories of their accomplishments. "It's inscribed in your wallet, so you own it, not a social network or any other platform."
Home baseThe Web3 guild protocol announced today at the YGG Play Summit that its Onchain Guilds platform will launch on Base, Coinbase's Ethereum Layer-2 network.
Designed to enhance transaction speed and reduce costs while maintaining the security and decentralization of Ethereum, Base was developed using the Optimism Stack.
The L2 enables developers to deploy decentralized applications more efficiently while allowing users to interact with the Ethereum ecosystem at a significantly lower cost.
This matters particularly in the Philippines, where Web3 gaming isn't just a hobby—it's a serious economic force and a life source for those earning an average yearly income between $3,000 and $12,000.
The country has been at the top of global rankings for web3 gaming interest for three years, with a staggering 96% crypto awareness rate, according to research from ConsenSys. Through YGG Pilipinas alone, the community counts 1.2 million members across social platforms.
And this is growing fast because YGG's vision extends beyond gaming, it told Decrypt. Earlier this year, YGG launched its Future of Work division, exploring how these same tools could help freelancers, content creators, and even AI data labeling teams organize and build reputation collectively.
"People are starting to do things like data labeling for AI companies, contributing data for deep end networks that will allow them to earn money," he explains. "I think that a lot of the transactions online will eventually move onchain."
Base's decision to wrap up its global tour in Manila—after stops across Latin America, Africa, and India-–showcases the Philippines' role as a Web3 frontier market. The platform's “buildathons” have been creating a buzz in emerging economies, where digital ownership and verifiable credentials are touted as game changers.
Digital sportsFor community members actively participating in its popular Guild Advancement Program, YGG offers staking as a way to boost questing rewards, with plans for broader participation mechanisms tied to casual gaming by early 2025, Decrypt was told.
Reputation, Dizon notes, is a core feature of human interactions. Whether back in Web2 or even offline, when one speaks of or interacts with a person or a group, how they come to be known, based on what they do or have done, often opens how others perceive them.
Drawing an analogy to traditional sports teams, Dizon explains how reputation works for Onchain Guilds.
"If you think of the L.A. Lakers, they have a certain reputation. They've had different members over the decades, but the team itself maintains its reputation: they've won championships, they have a win-lose record collectively."
In a way, the launch of Onchain Guilds on Base feels less like a product release and more like a coming-of-age moment for Web3 communities. As Dizon aptly puts it, with the characteristic optimism of someone who's seen the future arrive ahead of schedule: "This is just a natural evolution of our mission."
This, Dizon believes, is what YGG's Onchain Guilds is building for digital communities—a platform where they could earn and build value together leveraging blockchain technology.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
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The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, recorded a weekly candlestick below its critical 200-week moving average (WMA) for the first time since October 2023.
According to market experts, the 200-week moving average is historically considered the ultimate “line” separating bull and bear markets. Therefore, when Bitcoin falls below this level, it is accepted that there will be a change in the long-term trend, and it is predicted that this break could determine Bitcoin’s next price movement.
Furthermore, Bitcoin also recorded its worst monthly close since June 2022. Despite Bitcoin falling by approximately 20% in June (its worst monthly performance since June 2022), the risk of further decline does not appear to be over.
Market analyst Omkar Godbole argues in his latest analysis that despite Bitcoin experiencing a 20% drop in June, a strong bearish Marubozu pattern has formed on its chart.
According to the analyst, the Marubozu pattern is a full candlestick with almost no wick, indicating that the market was controlled by sellers throughout June.
Therefore, in the market, this formation is generally seen as a signal that a strong downtrend will continue.
Due to this technical formation, the analyst predicts that BTC could experience one more drop to between $48,000 and $55,000, which could form a potential bottom.
*This is not investment advice.
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Bitcoin continues to experience sharp declines, falling below $58,000 for the first time in a long time. These declines are attributed to rising inflation concerns, a more hawkish Fed, and a strengthening dollar in recent weeks.
At this point, the situation for Bitcoin is worsening, and this is reflected in the options market. According to the data, there is an increase in bets in the options market on BTC falling to $50,000.
According to analyst Omkar Godbole’s analysis, investors in the Bitcoin derivatives market are taking positions expecting a further decline in price rather than an increase.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin, after recently falling to as low as $57,700, has partially recovered to around $58,800, while open positions have risen to 768,000 BTC.
At this point, the analyst noted that put options, which are bets on a price decrease in the options market, are priced higher than call options across all expiry dates. According to Paradigm trading desk data, demand for the $50,000 Bitcoin put option with a September expiry date has increased.
In conclusion, according to the analyst, this positioning indicates that investors have increased the likelihood of BTC falling below $50,000 by the end of the third quarter.
Investors Have Started Accumulating, But Bitcoin Could Fall Again! As talk of Bitcoin reaching $50,000 continues to intensify, Glassnode reports that long-term investors have resumed buying BTC. However, despite these purchases, the risk of eventual capitulation remains.
According to Glassnode analysts, institutional exits and increasing put positions in the options market are negatively impacting investor sentiment, but long-term holders have begun accumulating again, and many wallet groups are increasing their BTC holdings. Additionally, spot order books on Binance and Coinbase are showing a trend towards buy orders.
This signals a shift from a selling to an accumulation trend, with BTC trading below $60,000.
Despite this positive signal, analysts say investor fear remains high, and the amount of BTC losing money is greater than the amount of BTC making a profit.
In this context, Glassnode noted that risks persist due to high demand for put options in the options market and the increase in leveraged long positions, which could lead to further long liquidations and a decline in demand.
Glassnode analysts recently stated that another sharp price drop is still possible before the market bottom is definitively formed.
*This is not investment advice.
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Jim Cramer has named the 5 stocks he believes are best positioned to benefit from the artificial intelligence (AI) spending cycle, pointing to several chip suppliers as the market’s current winners.
Cramer argued that Wall Street is rewarding companies that supply the AI boom while punishing the Big Tech giants that fund it.
The Stocks Cramer Says Will WinCramer described Micron Technology (MU), Sandisk (SNDK), Intel (INTC), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as the quarter’s biggest gainers.
According to him, “supply-demand imbalance” has boosted earnings growth, leading analysts to issue a wave of upgrades and lift price targets for companies across the group.
The numbers behind the memory names are extreme. Micron reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $41.5 billion. Furthermore, it briefly topped Meta in market cap at $1.4 trillion. Bank of America has also lifted its Micron target to $1,500 from $950.
Meanwhile, other firms have also experienced notable growth. The company posted $5.95 billion in fiscal third-quarter revenue, up 97% from the prior quarter.
The stock has rallied roughly 4,800% over 12 months on AI-driven NAND demand. Citi set a $2,500 price target with a Buy rating.
Intel follows with steadier numbers, reporting first-quarter revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year over year. Cramer named it his new favorite.
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Why Suppliers Are Beating Big TechCramer explained that demand for compute has outrun supply, driving up the cost of memory chips and networking gear. That dynamic has rewarded the sellers rather than the hyperscalers writing the checks.
“Wall Street’s now rewarding tech companies with products in high demand and punishing their customers,” he said.
The pressure shows in the tape. The Magnificent 7 shed roughly $2.3 trillion in market value during June. The drop came as investors questioned whether record AI spending would generate enough profit to justify it.
Even Nvidia (NVDA), a core supplier of AI compute, has lagged the rally. Cramer attributed the drag to concerns that custom chip competition would eat into its dominance.
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The digital asset market is attracting new attention following the publication of a US financial disclosure linked to Donald Trump’s interests. The document reveals the scale of revenues from crypto, with a significant focus on cryptocurrencies, token sales, and blockchain-related projects. Among the declared assets are Bitcoin and Ethereum, two major sector references. This publication comes as the links between politics, regulation, and the crypto industry are gaining increasing importance in the United States.
In brief TRUMP declares a crypto portfolio exceeding $1.1 billion, notably composed of Bitcoin, Ethereum, tokens and memecoins. Digital assets represent a major source of income, with hundreds of millions of dollars generated by his crypto-related activities. World Liberty Financial plays a central role in his crypto ecosystem, thanks to token sales associated with the platform. The memecoin $TRUMP constitutes one of the main declared revenues, illustrating the growing importance of community tokens in the crypto market. This disclosure rekindles the debate on regulation and transparency, as the links between politics and the cryptocurrency industry attract more attention. The latest financial disclosure filed with the United States Office of Government Ethics provides a detailed overview of TRUMP’s economic interests in the digital asset sector. The document highlights several sources of income related to cryptocurrencies, decentralized platforms, and projects based on blockchain technology.
Here are the main figures from the disclosure that show the financial importance of these activities:
1.4 billion dollars: total declared income by TRUMP for fiscal year 2025. More than 100 million dollars: value of assets declared in Bitcoin and Ethereum. More than 500 million dollars: income generated by World Liberty Financial, the crypto company co-founded by TRUMP with his sons, thanks to token sales. Approximately 635 million dollars: income from the sale of the memecoin $TRUMP. More than 80 million dollars: income from settlements with media companies. 2.3 billion dollars: estimated profits generated by the TRUMP family crypto companies from investors since his return to the presidency, according to earlier Reuters estimates. These amounts show that digital activities now represent a significant element in the overall economic interests declared by TRUMP. His exposure covers multiple market sectors, ranging from major cryptocurrencies to decentralized finance projects and community tokens.
World Liberty Financial holds a special place in this ecosystem. This decentralized finance platform, developed with support from TRUMP family members who hold about 38% of its shares and business partners, fits into a trend aiming to offer new financial services based on blockchain. The activities related to this platform’s tokens are among the main crypto revenue sources mentioned in the disclosure.
The disclosure also presents other income sources from activities outside the digital sector. Agreements with media companies thus complement the various financial sources recorded in the official document.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Strengthen Trump’s Exposure to Digital Assets The presence of Bitcoin in the financial disclosure highlights the role of major cryptocurrencies in TRUMP’s digital portfolio. Alongside Ethereum, these assets represent a significant part of his direct exposure to the crypto market. Their inclusion shows that major digital currencies now occupy a place in the financial strategies of some public figures.
Bitcoin remains one of the most followed assets in the crypto ecosystem thanks to its historic role in the sector’s development. Ethereum keeps a major position due to its use in smart contracts and decentralized applications. These two networks are references for many investors and market companies.
The inclusion of these assets in a presidential disclosure also draws attention to the evolving relationship between the traditional economy and digital finance. Cryptocurrencies are no longer only associated with specialized investors but have become a topic followed by institutions and public officials.
This situation occurs in a context marked by institutional changes in the United States. The publication of the financial disclosure came shortly after a decision by the US Supreme Court concerning the Trump v. Slaughter case and presidential authority over certain independent federal agencies.
The ruling, adopted 6 to 3, overturned the 91-year-old Humphrey’s Executor precedent, which protected these agencies from the White House. According to legal analysts, this concerns the SEC and the CFTC, the main crypto regulators.
This timing heightened questions about Trump’s dual role as both a political decision-maker and a crypto investor. This development could influence how organizations overseeing different economic sectors operate.
Crypto Activities Fuel the Regulation Debate Trump’s digital activities continue to attract attention as the United States seeks to define its approach regarding the crypto industry. Revenues from tokens, memecoins, and digital investments now place virtual assets at the center of economic and political discussions.
In this context, the World Liberty Financial case raises particular concerns. In May 2025, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, MGX, made a $2 billion investment through the company’s USD1 stablecoin, via the Binance platform.
This financial arrangement allegedly allowed funds from a foreign government to be routed through a token that the president’s family helps control. Several Democratic senators have called for hearings on this initiative, citing risks related to foreign influence and governance of such transactions.
The White House has denied any agreement that could have influenced the company, while some lawmakers advocate banning federal officials from participating in such crypto operations.
This situation also reignites debates around financial transparency and potential conflicts of interest. The rapid growth of the crypto sector compels institutions to consider new rules adapted to economic models related to digital assets.
Companies associated with the TRUMP family have experienced significant development in this environment. Previous estimates regarding their financial performance from investors bolster interest in upcoming political and regulatory decisions.
Thus, this financial disclosure marks a new stage in the visibility of cryptocurrencies within economic and political spheres. It shows how digital assets, from Bitcoin and Ethereum to memecoins and decentralized finance, now hold an important place in new financial models. The sector’s future evolution will mainly depend on institutional decisions, actor transparency, and authorities’ capacity to govern digital innovation while maintaining an adapted regulatory framework.
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Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.
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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Jupiter (JUP) edges higher by 6% at press time on Wednesday, testing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) breakout at $0.2192. A fresh spark in monthly revenue and fees, reaching a three-month high, reflects renewed user demand on the network, backed by a near-term rise in retail confidence as Open Interest jumps 11% in 24 hours.
The technical outlook for Jupiter is mixed, with a short-term recovery poised to test the breakout of the overhead resistance zone near $0.2400.
Jupiter’s network activity and retail support pick upJupiter, a Solana-based Decentralized Exchange (DEX), regains network demand after three months of steady decline. DeFiLlama data show that user fees and revenue have surged to 261,909 SOL and 76,257 SOL, respectively, despite broader market risk-off sentiment. The fresh surge reaffirms Jupiter’s dominance in the DeFi industry, which could boost demand for its JUP token.
Jupiter network data. Source: DeFiLlamaOn the derivatives front, CoinGlass data show JUP Open Interest (OI) rising 11% over 24 hours to $58.71 million, suggesting a surge in leverage-driven positional setups. In addition, the funding rates of 0.0021% reflect near-term bullish sentiment among traders, who are willing to take long positions at a premium.
JUP derivatives data. Source: CoinGlassTechnical outlook: Will JUP price break above its prevailing downtrend trendline?Jupiter shows a bullish recovery attempt, heading to challenge a declining resistance trendline near $0.2325. At the time of writing, JUP is roughly 6% on Wednesday, with intraday gains crossing above the 200-day EMA at $0.2192.
From a technical perspective, the DeFi token is heading toward a confluence of resistance at the declining trendline and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2372, measured from the upswing from $0.1350 to $0.2766. A decisive close above this zone could confirm a more decisive bullish extension, targeting the previous swing high near $0.2766, followed by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level at $0.3361.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 59 on the daily chart remains above the midline, as buyers retain control. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is close to its signal line, while the histograms contract, suggesting easing upside momentum.
JUP/USDT daily price chart.On the downside, initial support aligns with the 50-day EMA at $0.1971, near the 50% retracement at $0.1932, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $0.1599.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Jupiter has surged more than 15% after a sharp rebound in June protocol revenue revived bullish sentiment despite persistent risk-off conditions across the crypto market.
Summary
Jupiter jumped more than 15% after June protocol revenue climbed to a three-month high. Technical indicators show JUP has reclaimed its 200-day EMA as open interest and funding rates strengthened. Bulls now target the $0.24-$0.26 range, while losing $0.218 support could revive selling pressure. According to data from crypto.news, Jupiter (JUP) traded around $0.233 at the time of writing after briefly touching an intraday high near $0.238, extending its weekly gain to almost 30%.
The token’s rally followed a sharp improvement in protocol activity during June. Data from DeFiLlama showed Jupiter generated 261,909 SOL in user fees and 76,257 SOL in protocol revenue during the month, reversing three consecutive months of weakening network activity.
Because a portion of protocol revenue feeds Jupiter’s staking and governance model, the jump in cash flow quickly translated into renewed demand for the token.
The move also arrived while risk appetite across digital assets remained subdued. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has continued to hover in Extreme Fear territory near 11 as macro uncertainty and tighter liquidity conditions keep investors selective toward altcoins. Jupiter nevertheless outperformed most large-cap tokens, suggesting traders have prioritized protocol-specific fundamentals over macro headwinds.
Derivatives traders joined the advance rather than fading it. Open interest climbed roughly 11% to $58.7 million, while funding rates stayed positive near 0.0021%, showing leveraged traders have continued paying a premium to maintain long exposure instead of aggressively hedging the rally. That combination generally supports sustained momentum as long as fresh buying continues to absorb profit-taking.
Bulls have reclaimed the long-term trend while momentum targets higher resistance The daily chart shows JUP has reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average around $0.219, a level that repeatedly rejected advances during the previous decline. Price has also remained comfortably above the daily Supertrend indicator near $0.169, preserving the bullish structure established after June’s recovery.
Jupiter daily price chart — July 1 | Source: crypto.news Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers. The daily MACD remains above its signal line despite a modest slowdown in histogram expansion, suggesting upside momentum has eased but has not reversed. On the four-hour chart, RSI has climbed to about 63 without entering overbought territory, while the MACD has completed another bullish crossover as price pushes back toward the recent swing high.
The 4-hour structure also shows JUP trading above an ascending trendline that has supported higher lows since early June. Fibonacci retracement levels place immediate resistance near $0.238, followed by the psychological $0.24 region. A decisive close above that zone could expose the May peak around $0.26, while the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $0.218 now serves as the first important support during any pullback.
Jupiter 4-hour price chart — July 1 | Source: crypto.news CoinGlass liquidation data reinforces those technical levels. The largest concentration of short liquidations sits between roughly $0.238 and $0.245, creating a potential liquidity pocket if buyers force another breakout. Below the market, notable long liquidation clusters have formed around $0.22 and $0.21, areas that could attract buyers if price retraces before attempting another advance.
Jupiter liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass Failure to hold support could revive the previous bearish trend The bullish outlook would weaken if JUP loses the ascending trendline and falls back below the former breakout zone around $0.218. Such a move would place the 200-day EMA under pressure again and increase the probability of a decline toward the $0.20-$0.19 region, where the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement aligns with previous consolidation.
Macro risks also remain in place despite Jupiter’s strong fundamentals. Persistent risk-off sentiment, reduced liquidity across crypto markets, or renewed weakness in Solana ecosystem tokens could limit follow-through buying. Without continued growth in protocol revenue and sustained derivatives participation, the latest breakout could lose momentum before challenging the next major resistance zone above $0.24.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
President Trump just reported huge earnings from cryptocurrency ventures, totaling some $1.4 billion.
New financial disclosures detail $635 million in royalties from his memecoin business and more than $715 million from World Liberty Financial token sales, equity sales, and wallet income.
The Trump family memecoins Trump Coin and Melania Coin have fallen sharply since their all-time highs.
Trump Coin (Official Trump) is down approximately 98% from its January 2025 peak above $73 and Melania Coin (Official Melania Meme) is down 99.4% from its peak near $13.70.
Company disclosures (including its token offering documents) state that Trump-family entities are entitled to 75% of net proceeds from certain token sales after expenses.
World Liberty Financial was co-founded by Trump’s sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump along with associates. Trump and affiliated entities maintain an ownership stake.
Trump also reported cryptocurrency holdings through affiliated entities (including DT Marks Defi LLC and CIC Digital LLC), including more than $50 million each in Bitcoin and Ethereum, plus smaller positions in USDC and other digital assets.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) pushed for stronger legislation to bar President Donald Trump and his family from profiting off cryptocurrency, after new disclosures on Tuesday revealed income in excess of $1 billion in 2025.
Warren Demands Improved Crypto BillWarren said that the cryptocurrency legislation, i.e., the Clarity Act, eligible for a full floor vote in the Senate, must have provisions to stop Trump and his family from making money from cryptocurrency ventures.
Steve Rattner, a well-known Wall Street financier, weighed in on the financial benefits of the “Trump family’s White House self-dealing.”
‘Not A Good Look’Lawrence Lepard, an investment manager and Austrian economist, said that the disclosure didn’t give a “good look” and could spark political backlash against cryptocurrency if Democrats regain power.
Former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb was sharply critical of Trump’s cryptocurrency fortune, deeming it as “greatest onslaught of corruption in the history of mankind.”
Trump Made A Bomb With CryptoAccording to financial disclosure released on Tuesday, Trump’s cryptocurrency ventures netted him roughly $1.2 billion in 2025, the very first year of his presidency.
The windfall included over $520 million from the sale of tokens issued by World Liberty Financial and more than $635 million in royalties collected from the Official Trump (CRYPTO: TRUMP) memecoin.
The White House didn’t immediately return Benzinga’s request for comment.
Photo courtesy: Sheila Fitzgerald on Shutterstock.com
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
The disclosure shows $635 million in memecoin royalties and more than $500 million from World Liberty Financial token sales, filed as Democrats push for an ethics clause in the Clarity Act.
Posted July 1, 2026 at 6:27 am EST.
President Donald Trump earned more than $1 billion from cryptocurrency last year, according to financial disclosures released Tuesday by the Office of Government Ethics.
Trump collected $635 million in royalties from his $TRUMP token memecoin business, which launched days before his inauguration on January 2025, according to the disclosure. He also received more than $500 million from token sales connected to World Liberty Financial, the DeFi project backed by he and his family.
This story is an excerpt from the Unchained Daily newsletter.
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Trump also disclosed holding more than $50 million in ether, more than $50 million in bitcoin, and up to $250,000 in USD through DT Marks Defi LLC, a Trump Organization-affiliated entity with a stake in World Liberty Financial.
Through CIC Digital LLC, a second Trump Organization entity that co-owns the memecoin business, the president held an additional $25 million in ether, $25 million in USDC, more than $50 million in bitcoin, and an equity stake in Coreweave, the bitcoin miner that pivoted to AI infrastructure.
Trump through a third entity DT Marks SC LLC holds a stake in a “stablecoin holdco” that generated well over $196 million in revenue in 2025, tied to a reported investment from Abu Dhabi Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Trump also disclosed 6 million from an NFT licensing agreement.
Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance disclosed between $100,000 and $500,000 in bitcoin held through a Coinbase account.
The disclosures arrive as bitcoin trades roughly 50% below the all-time high it set last October, and as the broader crypto market has struggled through a third consecutive quarterly loss. It also sharpens a conflict-of-interest debate that has dogged the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act throughout Senate negotiations.
Multiple Democratic senators, along with some Republicans, have said they will not vote for the bill without a provision barring senior government officials from holding personal stakes in crypto businesses. Trump’s White House has pushed back against earlier versions of the language. With the August recess roughly five weeks away and the bill still short of the 60 votes it needs for passage, the financial disclosures are likely to intensify that pressure at the worst possible moment for the bill’s timeline.
Related Listen: Bits + Bips: How the Dimon vs. Armstrong Clash Reveals Crypto at Peak Political Power
AI-assisted content: This article was produced with the assistance of AI tools and was reviewed, edited, and fact-checked by a member of the Unchained editorial team before publication.
TL;DR The industry lost $75.87 million across 40 major crypto hacks in June, down 7.13% from May. Humanity Protocol suffered the largest exploit of the month, with losses totaling $31 million. PeckShield found that the Humanity Protocol attacker laundered stolen funds across multiple blockchain networks. Private key compromises continue to drive a significant share of crypto theft despite secure blockchain infrastructure. The cryptocurrency sector lost $75.87 million to 40 major security breaches in June 2026, marking a 7.13% decline from the $81.7 million stolen in May, according to blockchain security firm PeckShield. Although total losses eased month over month, attackers continued to target decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, bridges, and protocols, with the Humanity Protocol exploit accounting for the largest single incident.
#PeckShieldAlert In June 2026, the crypto space experienced 40 major hacks, resulting in total losses of $75.87M — a 7.13% month-over-month decrease from May ($81.7M).
Both #Aztec Bridge & #Aztec Connect were targeted within the same month, with combined losses of ~$4M.
The… pic.twitter.com/C9Na7EN422
— PeckShieldAlert (@PeckShieldAlert) July 1, 2026
PeckShield reported that the Humanity Protocol hack resulted in approximately $31 million in losses, followed by the Syscoin Bridge exploit at $10 million and the JaredFromSubway.eth MEV bot incident, which caused $7.5 million in damages. Other notable attacks affected Secret Network, Polymarket users, SecondFi, TESSERA, Aztec Bridge, Aztec Connect, Taiko Bridge, Token of Power, Raydium, and LABUBU/OLPC.
The security firm also revealed that the Humanity Protocol exploiter has actively laundered stolen assets across multiple blockchain networks, including Bitcoin, Solana, Hyperliquid, and BNB Chain.
Humanity Protocol Exploiter Linked to Multiple Blockchain Networks According to PeckShield, investigators observed the Humanity Protocol attacker moving stolen funds across several blockchain ecosystems in an apparent effort to obscure their origin. The firm added that the laundered assets were commingled with funds associated with the KelpDAO exploit, suggesting a possible connection between the actors behind the two incidents.
June also saw both Aztec Bridge and Aztec Connect targeted in separate attacks during the same month. Together, the two exploits resulted in roughly $4 million in losses, adding to a growing list of bridge-related security incidents.
While June’s total losses were lower than those recorded in May, the number of major attacks highlights the continued security challenges facing the crypto industry.
Private Key Compromises Remain a Major Security Threat The latest wave of attacks comes as industry data continues to show that compromised private keys remain one of the leading causes of crypto-related theft. According to DeFiLlama data, blockchain projects have collectively lost $16.69 billion to hacks, bridge exploits, and other security incidents over the years, with roughly 40% of those losses linked to stolen or compromised private keys rather than flaws in blockchain infrastructure or smart contracts.
Hack Data | Source: DeFiLlama Private keys function as the credentials that grant access to cryptocurrency wallets and digital assets. As a result, attackers who obtain these keys can gain control of funds even when the underlying blockchain technology remains secure.
The June figures underscore that while overall monthly losses declined, security threats continue to evolve as attackers increasingly exploit operational weaknesses and move stolen assets across multiple blockchain networks in an effort to complicate recovery efforts.
Phantom has hired three Ventuals creators after the Hyperliquid-based project shut down its OpenAI and Anthropic perpetual futures markets.
Summary
Phantom has hired Ventuals creators Alvin Hsia, Emily Hsia and Aris Samad for its trading and data teams. Ventuals recently shut down its OpenAI and Anthropic perpetual futures markets on Hyperliquid. Phantom said the hires will support its deeper push into perpetual futures and Hyperliquid-based trading products. Phantom CEO Brandon Millman said Alvin Hsia, Emily Hsia and Aris Samad, who created Ventuals, have joined the company’s trading and data teams.
The move brings one of Hyperliquid’s closely watched private-company market experiments into Phantom’s growing trading business.
Ventuals had earlier announced that it was winding down and joining another project within the Hyperliquid ecosystem. The project had gained attention for offering perpetual futures tied to private-company valuations, including markets linked to OpenAI and Anthropic, before those products were closed.
Perpetual futures allow traders to take positions on price movements without a contract expiry date. Unlike traditional futures, these contracts can remain open as long as margin conditions are met, making them one of the most used derivative products in crypto markets.
Their constant availability, deep liquidity, and flexible market design have also made them useful for trading assets beyond listed cryptocurrencies.
Phantom deepens focus on Hyperliquid trading For Phantom, the hires come as the self-custody wallet continues adding trading-focused features to its core wallet business. The company is best known as a crypto wallet provider, but it has expanded into swaps, staking and derivatives as wallets compete to become more active financial platforms for users.
Millman said Phantom has become the largest distribution partner in the Hyperliquid ecosystem and plans to keep building around perpetual futures. He said open markets had become a major focus for the company and added that Phantom had gone deep into perps and planned to go further.
In the same statement, Millman described Hyperliquid as one of the strongest examples of what open markets can enable, citing its global liquidity and transparent onchain infrastructure. According to him, adding the Ventuals team will help Phantom move faster in developing trading products linked to the ecosystem.
The development also comes as perpetual futures gain attention outside crypto-native exchanges. Kalshi launched its own perpetual futures business last month after receiving regulatory approval, adding another example of trading platforms testing always-on derivatives beyond traditional crypto markets.
U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance holds a "fair amount of" Bitcoin.
U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance recently disclosed holding Bitcoin (BTC) valued between $250,001 and $500,000.
As per the recently released certified annual financial disclosure report (OGE Form 278e), Vance holds Bitcoin in a Coinbase account and the holding generated no income or less than $201 in income during the reporting period.
The form doesn't shed more light on when Vance bought Bitcoin or the exact number of coins he holds.
The disclosure isn't surprising, given that as a Senate candidate in 2022, he reported holding Bitcoin worth $100,001-$250,000, and the position increased to $250,000-$500,000 when he filed the disclosure as a vice presidential nominee in 2024.
Trending on TheStreet RoundtableExclusive: Arthur Hayes says AI's biggest problem could be Bitcoin's gainAI firm tied to bankrupt crypto lender files for Nasdaq listingWall Street's Bitcoin funds just logged their worst stretch in monthsVance remains bullish on Bitcoin At the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas in May last year, Vance reaffirmed that he still owns "a fair amount" of Bitcoin. During the conference, he slammed the Joe Biden government's crypto policy and hailed the crypto industry for getting involved in crypto.
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After Donald Trump won the presidential election for the second time in November 2024, Bitcoin's price began to hit new record highs. The vice president was hardly subtle about the transforming change taking place in the U.S.
"Crypto finally has a champion and an ally in the White House."
Bitcoin hit the all-time high (ATH) of $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025. But the flash crash on Oct. 10 led to all the gains vanishing, and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are yet to recover.
Trump's tariff threats and the U.S.-Iran war are among the primary macroeconomic reasons behind the ongoing crypto winter.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $58,505.11 at the time of writing.
Analysts expect AI, Federal Reserve policy and shifting market structure to drive crypto and equity markets through the second half of the year.Former Credit Suisse executive Mark Connors says AI is creating a widening divide between companies that benefit from the technology and those at risk of disruption.Hyperion Decimus' Chris Sullivan argues bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact and believes the market is nearing a point where "it's so bearish it's bullish."The first half of the year was defined by the AI trade. The second half may be defined by a tougher question: Which companies and assets actually stand to benefit from it?
The contrast between crypto and equities has been one of this year's defining market stories. AI enthusiasm propelled technology stocks to record highs, while bitcoin BTC$59,720.20 has tumbled 46% to $58,300 on Tuesday.
Market analysts say investors are entering a period where AI, monetary policy and changing market structure could drive sharp swings across equities and cryptocurrencies, even as the broader economy remains resilient.
Former Credit Suisse global head of portfolio and Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors argued AI is no longer lifting the technology sector indiscriminately. Instead, it is separating companies building AI infrastructure from businesses whose products or services could be disrupted by large language models and AI agents.
"The market is being cleaved in two," he said in an interview with CoinDesk, pointing to Accenture's recent selloff as evidence that investors are reassessing consulting firms as generative AI automates more knowledge work. He also cited weakness in software companies, including Autodesk and Intuit, saying it suggests pressure on traditional software firms could continue.
At the same time, he expects macroeconomic uncertainty to remain the dominant force across financial markets. Correlations among stocks, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies have risen in recent months, according to Kestrel data, suggesting investors are responding more to policy developments than to company-specific fundamentals.
"The rest of the year is going to be messy," he said, arguing uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and Treasury financing could keep markets volatile before financial conditions eventually improve.
Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus, sees a similar backdrop of elevated uncertainty but believes investors are paying too much attention to market narratives and not enough to market mechanics.
He argued that structural changes following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), combined with institutional hedging activity in derivatives markets, have changed how bitcoin trades and weakened many of its historical relationships with broader macro indicators.
Bitcoin’s recent downturn has also challenged the idea that bitcoin had outgrown its traditional four-year cycle. Following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, some market participants argued institutional capital would smooth out bitcoin's volatility and bring an end to its familiar boom-and-bust pattern. Sullivan disagrees, saying the current decline still fits within historical market cycles and that he is waiting for a final bottoming pattern before declaring the bear market over.
"We are nearing the point of where it's so bearish it's bullish" from a risk-reward perspective, he said. Sullivan continues to expect bitcoin to establish a bear-market bottom in the $54,000 to $58,000 range, arguing that improving on-chain fundamentals and historically depressed investor sentiment could provide an attractive setup for long-term investors once the current period of uncertainty passes.
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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Jun 30, 2026
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Why it matters:
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
A new Bitcoin improvement discussion is putting one of the network’s most divisive questions back in the spotlight: what should Bitcoin block space be used for? BIP-110, a proposal under developer discussion, aims to limit transaction types to payments and peer-to-peer transfers, a move that could affect inscription-heavy activity such as Ordinals and Runes.
TL;DR Bitcoin developers are discussing BIP-110. The proposal would aim to filter transaction types viewed as on-chain spam. Ordinals and Runes traffic sit at the center of the debate. BIP-110 is a proposal, not an active or scheduled hard fork. The debate is not new. Since Ordinals brought inscription-style activity to Bitcoin, users have argued over whether that demand is a healthy fee market or a misuse of the chain. Supporters say Bitcoin is a permissionless network and users should be free to pay for block space. Critics argue that non-payment data clogs the network and moves Bitcoin away from its original monetary purpose.
The payment purist argument The case behind BIP-110 is rooted in a simple view of Bitcoin: the network should prioritize payments and value transfer. From that perspective, transactions that carry inscription data are treated as a distraction from Bitcoin’s core function. If the network becomes too congested with non-payment traffic, regular users may face higher fees and slower confirmation times.
That argument has gained renewed attention because Ordinals and Runes reportedly account for a large share of current Bitcoin network traffic. Some estimates place inscription-related activity at more than two-thirds of traffic. Even if that figure changes over time, it explains why the issue keeps returning. Block space is scarce, and everyone using Bitcoin is competing for it.
The open block-space argument The other side sees the proposal very differently. For Ordinals and Runes supporters, the point of Bitcoin is that users can broadcast valid transactions without asking permission. If someone pays the fee and follows consensus rules, they argue the network should not decide whether the transaction is morally or culturally acceptable.
There is also an economic argument. More activity means more fees. As Bitcoin’s block subsidy continues to decline over time, transaction fees become increasingly important for miner revenue. From that view, inscriptions may be messy, speculative, or even annoying, but they also help build the fee market that Bitcoin eventually needs.
Proposal, not policy The most important caveat is that BIP-110 is not a scheduled hard fork and should not be reported as one. It is an active proposal and debate. Bitcoin’s development process is deliberately slow, conservative, and difficult to force through. A technical idea can create a lot of noise without ever becoming network policy.
Still, the conversation matters because it shows Bitcoin’s identity debate is far from settled. Is Bitcoin only money, or is it a settlement layer where any valid transaction can compete? BIP-110 may or may not advance, but the argument around it will continue to shape how users, miners, and developers think about the network’s future.
For readers, the next few sessions matter because Bitcoin often needs confirmation from several places at once: spot demand, exchange flows, derivatives positioning, and the broader macro mood. One signal can start the conversation, but the stronger read comes when those signals begin lining up.
This report is based on information from Bitcoin BIPs GitHub Repository.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States have faced a sharp wave of outflows over the past two months. Data shared by the crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant indicates a total withdrawal of 100,000 BTC from these funds. This development stands out as the largest decline seen since the ETFs were launched in January 2024.
Outflows hit record-breaking levelsAccording to recent data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a significant drop in cumulative net inflows. The removal of 100,000 BTC signals the largest wave of sales on record, with the total outflow now exceeding $11 billion. This trend is also connected to institutional investors exercising greater caution before opening new positions.
Quick definition: A spot Bitcoin ETF is an investment fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin directly and is traded on exchanges like a regular stock. CryptoQuant is a widely recognized crypto analytics platform specializing in on-chain data and exchange flows.
CryptoQuant’s data reveals that cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have sharply decreased, with outflows totaling 100,000 BTC.
This outflow exceeding $11 billion marks the steepest weekly drop recorded since spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading. The accelerating withdrawals point to a dampened investor appetite and a notable slowdown in risk-taking behavior throughout the crypto market.
Early enthusiasm gives way to cautionAt their launch, spot Bitcoin ETFs were hailed as a milestone for the digital asset industry, drawing significant interest from a broad range of investors. These products provided institutional and retail investors with streamlined access to Bitcoin via established financial markets, fueling billions of dollars in inflows within weeks.
The current scenario, however, tells a markedly different story. Investor caution has spread, leading to steady daily outflows across nearly every trading day of the past two months. This period represents the longest recorded stretch of back-to-back daily outflows in the short history of spot Bitcoin ETF trading.
Over the past two months, ETFs saw capital drain on nearly every day of the week, setting a new record for the longest series of consecutive daily outflows.
Renewed questions about market interestThe persistent outflows from these funds have reignited discussion around the influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs on the market and whether investor interest will rebound. A growing “wait and see” sentiment among institutional players signals that the brisk inflows seen earlier this year have slowed to a more measured pace.
Current data underscores that spot Bitcoin ETFs still serve as a key indicator for the broader crypto market, though the past two months have clearly seen a reversal in capital flows. The extent and duration of these outflows continue to fuel debate about what this means for Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Bitcoin sits near $58,000 to $60,000 with the Fear and Greed Index buried in extreme fear. History says washed-out sentiment often precedes bottoms, but fear is a signal, not a floor. Here are the gauges traders are actually watching.
Summary
Bitcoin trades near $58,000 to $60,000 as of July 1, 2026, down about 53% from its October 2025 record of $126,198, after back-to-back quarterly losses to open the year. The Fear and Greed Index sits around 12 to 16, deep in extreme fear, a zone that has historically appeared near local bottoms but is not a timing tool on its own. Bullish positioning signals are stacking up: open interest has collapsed from over $90 billion to about $44.5 billion, leverage is flushed, and coins are leaving exchanges in a pattern that suggests accumulation. The bearish counterweight is real: spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a record $4.5 billion of outflows in June, the Fed is hawkish with a likely December rate hike priced in, and one cycle model points to a bottom only around mid-October. The signals that would confirm a turn are concrete: reclaiming the 20-day and longer moving averages, a flip back to ETF inflows, open interest rebuilding alongside price, and the fear gauge lifting off its extremes. Extreme fear is one of the most misread conditions in markets. When the Fear and Greed Index drops into the low teens, the crowd reads it as a reason to run, and the contrarian reads it as a reason to buy. Both are oversimplifying. Sentiment this low tells you that positioning is stretched and conviction is gone, which is often the raw material of a bottom, but “often” is not “now,” and fear can always get more extreme before it breaks.
The useful move is not to treat the fear gauge as a signal by itself, but to read it alongside the harder data on positioning, flows, and price. This piece walks through the signals traders are watching, lays out the bullish and bearish readings of each, and identifies what would actually confirm that the turn has arrived. The key point is simple: fear tells traders to pay attention, not to assume the bottom is already in.
What the Fear and Greed Index is saying Start with the gauge everyone quotes. The Fear and Greed Index compresses several inputs, volatility, momentum, volume, and social signals, into a single 0 to 100 reading, and the latest chart still shows the market deep in extreme fear. Historically, readings this low have clustered near local bottoms, because they mark the point where sellers have largely exhausted themselves and the marginal holder is fearful rather than greedy. That is the contrarian appeal: when nobody wants the asset, much of the selling may already be done.
Source: CoinMarketCap The caution is that the index is a description of the present, not a prediction of the future. Extreme fear can persist for weeks, and it can deepen. During genuine downtrends, the gauge has sat in fear for long stretches while price kept falling, so treating a low reading as an automatic buy signal has burned plenty of traders. The right way to use it is as context: it tells you the emotional backdrop is washed out, which raises the odds that other bottoming signals are meaningful, without confirming anything on its own.
That is why how the index works matters before using it as a trading signal. The number is useful because it summarizes the market mood, but it is not a floor under price. For confirmation, traders still need price levels, ETF flows, leverage data, and macro conditions to line up.
Signal one: positioning has reset The most constructive signal under the surface is what happened to leverage. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has collapsed from above $90 billion to roughly $44.5 billion over recent weeks, less than half its peak. That drop reflects long liquidations, profit-taking, and traders reducing speculative exposure. In plain terms, the leverage that builds up in a rally and makes a market fragile has been flushed out.
Why this matters for a turn is mechanical. A market loaded with leveraged longs is vulnerable, because small drops trigger liquidations that cascade into larger drops. A market where that leverage has been cleared is sturdier, because the forced-selling fuel is gone. Resets like this often precede bottoms, since they remove the overhang that drags price lower and leave room for fresh positioning to push the other way.
The bearish reading is that falling open interest also signals fading demand and cautious participation, not just healthy deleveraging. Traders stepping back can mean they see no reason to buy, and a market with thin conviction can drift lower on light volume. The reset is a necessary condition for a durable bottom, but it is not sufficient by itself, because clean positioning can still sit under a price that keeps grinding down.
Signal two: exchange flows and accumulation The second signal comes from where the coins are moving. Through the drawdown, Bitcoin has seen exchange outflows exceed inflows, meaning more coins are leaving exchanges than arriving. That pattern is typically read as accumulation: holders pulling coins into self-custody or long-term storage rather than keeping them on exchanges ready to sell. When supply leaves the venues where selling happens, it thins the pool of coins available to hit the market.
The bullish interpretation is that long-term holders are quietly buying weakness while short-term traders panic, a divergence that has marked accumulation phases before. Steady outflows during extreme fear suggest conviction underneath the fear, the kind of hands that absorb selling and set the base for a recovery. That is the constructive version of the on-chain story, and it fits with the broader idea that the market is moving from forced selling toward accumulation.
The counterpoint is that exchange flows are noisy and can reflect custody shifts, institutional plumbing, or one-off moves rather than genuine accumulation. Outflows are encouraging, but they are a soft signal, easily overstated. On their own they confirm that some holders are unbothered, not that the bottom is in. They matter most when they line up with stronger evidence from ETF flows and price.
Signal three: the ETF bid The third signal is the one cutting against the bulls, and it is the most important on the bearish side. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $4.5 billion of net outflows in June 2026, their worst month since launching, removing the steady institutional bid that had cushioned earlier declines. The funds that were supposed to represent durable, price-insensitive demand instead became a source of selling, and their flows have tracked the drawdown closely.
This matters because the ETF bid was a structural change in how Bitcoin traded. When it was flowing in, it provided a floor of consistent demand. When it reverses, that floor becomes a headwind, and the market has to find other buyers to absorb the redemptions. For sentiment to turn convincingly, this is the signal that most needs to flip.
A return to sustained ETF inflows would tell the market that institutions are stepping back in, which would validate the bullish reading of the other signals. Continued outflows would keep the pressure on regardless of how washed out the fear gauge looks. That is why the ETF bid that reversed deserves more weight than a sentiment reading alone. In this cycle, flows are not a side detail; they are one of the main channels moving the market.
Signal four: oversold technicals The fourth signal is on the chart. The relative strength index has dropped near 30, the oversold threshold, indicating that momentum has fallen far and fast and that the move may be stretched to the downside. Price sits near support in the $58,000 area, below the 20-day exponential moving average around $62,450, and well beneath the longer-term moving averages, the 200-day near $65,200 and the 50-month near $65,600, that mark the bull-bear boundaries.
The bullish read is that oversold conditions at support are where reversals begin, and a bounce off the high $50,000s that reclaims the moving averages would signal the downtrend is weakening. The bearish read is that oversold can stay oversold in a strong downtrend. Until price actually reclaims those moving averages, the path of least resistance points lower, with a break below support opening the door toward the mid-$50,000s. The technicals frame the levels, but they do not resolve the direction until price picks one.
That is why the level-based bottom question matters alongside sentiment. Bitcoin does not bottom because the index is low; it bottoms when buyers defend levels, reclaim resistance, and force trend-followers to change position. The fear gauge tells traders the market is stretched. The chart tells them whether the stretch is becoming a reversal.
The bull read: capitulation precedes bottoms Put the constructive signals together and a coherent bottoming case emerges. Extreme fear, flushed leverage, steady accumulation, and oversold momentum are the classic ingredients of capitulation, the moment when the last weak hands sell and stronger hands absorb the supply. In prior cycles, this combination has marked the exhaustion of a downtrend, the point where selling pressure runs out because everyone inclined to sell already has. In this reading, the current setup looks less like the start of a new collapse and more like the late stage of a forced reset.
The bull case also treats the record ETF outflows as a lagging sign of the same capitulation instead of a fresh catastrophe. Institutions derisked into weakness, leverage was cleared, and sentiment collapsed into extreme fear. If that selling has already happened, the market may be closer to a base than the headline fear suggests. The reset positioning and the accumulation on-chain suggest a foundation is forming under the panic.
If that is right, the setup favors a recovery once a catalyst arrives to flip sentiment, and the extreme fear reading becomes, in hindsight, the marker of the low. This is the contrarian thesis, and the data gives it real support. The key caveat is timing: a market can be in a bottoming zone before the actual bottom is printed. Bulls still need confirmation before calling the turn.
The bear read: fear can deepen The opposing case is equally grounded, and it starts with the fact that Bitcoin is down about 53% from its high with back-to-back quarterly losses, a genuine bear market instead of a shallow dip. Deep drawdowns can extend, and washed-out sentiment can get more washed out. The macro backdrop offers no relief: the Fed is hawkish under its current chair, markets are pricing a strong chance of a December rate hike as inflation drifts back toward 4%, and a key jobs report looms, all of which pressure risk assets like Bitcoin, which trades as high-beta risk far more than as a haven.
There is also a timing argument. One cycle model notes that bear-market corrections have averaged about 12 months, which, measured from the October 2025 record, points to a bottom only around mid-October 2026. By that reading, the current fear could be a stop along the way instead of the destination, with more downside and more time required before a durable low. The record ETF outflows, in this frame, are an active headwind, not a capitulation tail.
Fear is a signal, not a floor, and it can persist far longer than the impatient expect. The chart can stay oversold, ETF flows can stay negative, and macro can keep forcing risk assets lower. That does not invalidate the bottoming signals; it simply means they are conditions, not confirmations. The bear case is strongest as long as price remains below the key moving averages and the ETF bid stays absent.
What would confirm a turn The way to cut through the debate is to watch for confirmation instead of guessing at the bottom. Four signals would mark a genuine turn. The first is price reclaiming the 20-day EMA near $62,450 and then the heavier resistance around $64,000, which would break the pattern of lower highs and put buyers back in control. The second is ETF flows flipping from outflows back to sustained inflows, the clearest sign the institutional bid has returned.
The third is open interest rebuilding alongside a rising price, which would show fresh capital coming in with conviction instead of a low-volume drift. The fourth is the Fear and Greed Index lifting off its extremes, confirming that the emotional backdrop is normalizing. Until several of those align, the constructive signals remain a setup instead of a trigger. Extreme fear, reset leverage, and accumulation describe a market that could turn, not one that has.
The discipline is to treat washed-out sentiment as a reason to watch closely, while waiting for price and flows to confirm before concluding the low is in. That is how experienced traders use a reading in extreme fear: not as a buy button, but as a cue to track the signals that actually mark the turn. The lower the fear gauge falls, the more important confirmation becomes, because the emotional temptation to act early grows stronger.
How this fear compares with past bottoms Extreme fear is not new, and prior episodes offer a rough guide to how it tends to resolve, with a large caveat. In earlier cycles, the deepest fear readings have often clustered near major lows, appearing when a drawdown was closer to its end than its beginning, precisely because fear peaks when selling has run far. The pattern that has marked durable bottoms combines washed-out sentiment with flushed leverage and steady accumulation by long-term holders, the same three ingredients visible now. On that template, the current setup rhymes with past bottoming conditions.
The caveat is that the template has failed often enough to demand humility. Extreme fear has also appeared in the middle of downtrends, not just at their ends, and readers who bought every low reading in a bear market bought too early more than once. The difference between a fear reading that marks a bottom and one that marks a pause is usually not visible in the sentiment gauge itself. It shows up later, in whether price reclaims key levels and whether the institutional bid returns.
There is also a structural change that makes the comparison imperfect. The presence of spot ETFs has altered how Bitcoin trades, adding a large, flow-driven institutional participant that did not exist in earlier cycles. That means past bottoming patterns, built in a market without ETFs, may not map cleanly onto this one. The ETF flows can amplify moves in both directions, which is why the record June outflows matter so much and why this cycle’s bottom may look different from the ones the historical template describes.
The macro calendar that matters Because Bitcoin is trading as a high-beta risk asset, the signals most likely to flip or deepen sentiment are macroeconomic, and the calendar is crowded. The nearest is the monthly jobs report, a read on labor-market strength that feeds directly into rate expectations: a hot number would reinforce the case for the Fed staying tight, pressuring risk assets, while a soft number could revive hopes for easier policy and lift them. Traders watching for a sentiment turn are watching that print closely. It is not a crypto-native signal, but it can decide whether crypto-native bottoming signals actually matter.
Further out sits the Fed itself. With markets pricing a meaningful chance of a December rate hike as inflation drifts back toward 4%, each inflation report and each Fed meeting becomes a potential catalyst. A hawkish surprise would deepen the risk-off mood that has weighed on Bitcoin, while any sign the tightening is ending could mark the macro turn that a sentiment-driven bottom needs. The path of rates, more than any crypto-native signal, is the backdrop against which the fear gauge will either normalize or sink further.
The practical point is that a durable turn in Bitcoin sentiment probably requires a shift in the macro wind, not just an oversold chart. The internal signals, reset leverage, accumulation, extreme fear, describe a market primed to respond, but the trigger is likely to come from outside crypto: a softer labor market, a friendlier inflation path, or a Fed that signals the end of tightening. Until the macro calendar delivers one of those, the constructive crypto signals remain a coiled setup waiting for a catalyst, which is why traders track the economic data as closely as the order book right now.
The one signal that matters most With so many gauges flashing at once, it helps to rank them, and in this cycle one signal outranks the rest: the ETF bid. Before spot Bitcoin funds existed, a bottom was mostly a story about on-chain holders, leverage, and sentiment, the classic signals. Those still matter, but the arrival of ETFs added a large, flow-driven institutional participant whose buying and selling now sets much of the marginal price. When that participant is buying, it provides a steady floor. When it is selling, as it was through the record June outflows, it becomes a persistent drag that the other signals cannot easily overcome.
That is why the ETF flow number deserves more weight than the fear gauge or the RSI. Extreme fear can mark a bottom, reset leverage can prime one, and accumulation can build a base, but none of them forces the institutional bid to return. The flows do that directly. A market can sit at extreme fear with clean positioning and still grind lower if the funds keep redeeming, because the redemptions are real selling that has to be absorbed.
Conversely, a decisive flip back to sustained inflows would validate every other constructive signal at once, confirming that the capitulation the other gauges describe has actually ended. The practical takeaway is a hierarchy. Treat the ETF flows as the primary confirmation, the signal that most reliably separates a real turn from a false one. Treat reset leverage and on-chain accumulation as supporting evidence that the setup is favorable. Treat extreme fear and oversold technicals as context that raises the odds without confirming anything.
The macro calendar is the likely trigger that moves the flows one way or the other. Reading the signals in that order, flows first, positioning second, sentiment last, is how to avoid the classic trap of buying extreme fear too early. The gauge in extreme fear tells you the market is primed. The ETF flows will tell you when it has actually turned.
Frequently asked questions What does a Fear and Greed reading near 16 mean? It means the index sits deep in extreme fear, its lowest zone, reflecting washed-out sentiment across volatility, momentum, volume, and social signals. Historically, readings this low have appeared near local bottoms because much of the selling may be exhausted. But it is a description of the present, not a prediction, and extreme fear can persist or deepen during a real downtrend.
Is extreme fear a reliable buy signal? Not on its own. Low readings raise the odds that a bottom is near, but sentiment can stay fearful for weeks while price keeps falling. It is best used as context alongside harder data on positioning, flows, and price, instead of as a standalone trigger. Treating a low reading as an automatic buy has repeatedly caught traders too early.
Why does falling open interest matter? Open interest dropping from over $90 billion to about $44.5 billion means leverage has been flushed out through liquidations and derisking. That makes the market sturdier, because the forced-selling fuel that drives cascading drops is gone, which often precedes bottoms. The caveat is that falling open interest can also signal fading demand, so it is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a turn.
What are exchange outflows telling us? More Bitcoin has been leaving exchanges than arriving, a pattern typically read as accumulation, with holders moving coins into storage instead of keeping them ready to sell. It suggests conviction underneath the fear. But exchange flows are noisy and can reflect custody or institutional shifts, so they are a soft signal that some holders are unbothered, not proof the bottom is in.
Why are the ETF outflows so important? Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a record $4.5 billion of outflows in June 2026, turning the steady institutional bid that once cushioned drops into a headwind. Because that bid was a structural support, its reversal is the signal that most needs to flip for a convincing turn. A return to sustained inflows would validate the bullish case, while continued outflows keep pressure on regardless of sentiment.
Where is Bitcoin’s key support and resistance? Support sits near the $58,000 area, and reclaiming the 20-day EMA around $62,450 is the first upside test, followed by heavier resistance near $64,000 and the longer-term moving averages around $65,200 to $65,600. RSI near 30 shows oversold momentum. A break below support opens the door toward the mid-$50,000s, while reclaiming the moving averages would signal the downtrend is weakening.
Could Bitcoin fall further from here? Yes. Bitcoin is down about 53% from its record with back-to-back quarterly losses, and deep drawdowns can extend. A hawkish Fed, a likely December rate hike, and looming jobs data pressure risk assets, and one cycle model points to a bottom only around mid-October 2026. Extreme fear is a signal, not a floor, and it can persist longer than expected.
What would confirm that Bitcoin has turned? Four signals: price reclaiming the 20-day EMA near $62,450 and then resistance around $64,000, ETF flows flipping back to sustained inflows, open interest rebuilding alongside a rising price, and the Fear and Greed Index lifting off its extremes. Until several align, the constructive signals describe a market that could turn instead of one that has, so confirmation should come before conviction.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and technical and sentiment analysis is speculative and may not predict actual movements. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Figures are accurate as of July 1, 2026, and will change.
TLDR; Bitcoin ETF Outflows reached a record $4.5 billion in June, marking the largest monthly withdrawal since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. BlackRock IBIT accounted for nearly 79% of all June withdrawals after investors pulled about $3.55 billion from the fund during the month. Total US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings continued to decline, with CryptoQuant reporting assets below 1.25 million BTC despite positive lifetime inflows. The scale of ETF selling exceeded Strategy’s planned $1.25 billion Bitcoin financing program, highlighting weaker institutional demand across the market. US Bitcoin ETF Outflows climbed to a record level in June after investors withdrew approximately $4.5 billion from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. The monthly decline became the largest since the products launched in January 2024 and extended a broader trend of institutional selling.
According to SoSoValue, the heavy withdrawals pushed year-to-date net flows for 2026 deeper into negative territory while reducing cumulative net inflows since launch. The decline also coincided with softer Bitcoin prices and growing investor interest in artificial intelligence stocks and new public offerings.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reach Historic Monthly High June marked the weakest month ever recorded for US spot Bitcoin ETFs. SoSoValue data showed total monthly withdrawals reached roughly $4.51 billion, surpassing the previous monthly record set in early 2025.
BlackRock’s IBIT experienced the largest share of the selling. Investors withdrew about $3.55 billion during June, representing nearly four-fifths of total Bitcoin ETF Outflows. Over the past two months alone, IBIT has recorded almost $5 billion in net withdrawals.
IBIT monthly flow. Source: SoSoValue Fidelity’s FBTC also ended June with net outflows of roughly $456.6 million. Its second-quarter withdrawals approached $903 million as institutional investors continued reducing exposure.
The two-month selling wave has now removed almost $7 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Total ETF assets declined from about $94 billion in May to nearly $71 billion by the end of June.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reflect Softer Institutional Demand CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said US Bitcoin ETF holdings are now lower than they were at the same time last year. Total holdings have fallen below 1.25 million BTC despite lifetime net inflows remaining above $51 billion.
The difference between cumulative inflows and actual holdings suggests demand has weakened. Redemptions and changing fund positions have reduced Bitcoin exposure across the ETF sector even as historical inflow totals remain positive.
Analysts also pointed to changing investor preferences. Strong performance in artificial intelligence companies and growing interest in high-profile initial public offerings attracted capital away from digital assets during June.
The latest Bitcoin ETF Outflows also overshadowed Strategy’s newly announced authorization to raise up to $1.25 billion through its Bitcoin monetization program. While the corporate financing plan aims to support its capital structure, June’s ETF withdrawals were more than three times larger.
Bitcoin traded around $58,640 after falling more than 19% over the previous month. Even so, market observers noted continued whale accumulation around key support levels. Investors will now monitor whether Bitcoin ETF Outflows begin to stabilize during July or continue pressuring institutional Bitcoin demand.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
@World_xyz has officially launched as a @Solana-native, self-custodial prediction market, integrating directly into the @Phantom mobile and desktop applications. The debut marks a notable shift in how Phantom's prediction market infrastructure operates, replacing a previous setup that routed trades through a centralized intermediary.
A Direct, On-Chain Experience for 20 Million Users The platform gives Phantom's 20M+ user base access to binary contracts on $BTC price action and the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, all without moving funds to centralized wrappers. Phantom's own disclosure describes World as "a non-custodial prediction markets protocol" that "provides order routing to liquidity providers on the Solana blockchain."
When a user opens a prediction market position through Phantom, that position is represented as an SPL token, a standard Solana token, that settles on-chain. Each contract is priced between $0 and $1 based on implied probability. Every position uses $CASH as the primary settlement stablecoin, enabling instant, automatic redemptions once a market concludes.
The automatic settlement is a material improvement over how Phantom's prediction markets previously worked. Before June 1, the infrastructure was provided by DFlow, operating through a Kalshi integration, where expired positions required manual redemption. Under World, payouts are redeemed automatically when an event ends.
Chainlink Replaces Slow, Human-Governed Oracle Resolution The oracle layer is a defining element of the architecture. World's backend relies on @Chainlink Data Streams and the Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE) to resolve markets without manual intervention. The CRE provides developers the workflow execution environment required to repeatedly establish, resolve, and settle markets continuously, even on a minute-by-minute basis, all without manual intervention.
Chainlink's approach to prediction market resolutions significantly reduces payout times, often cutting them from one to two hours with legacy providers to under five minutes. Many prediction markets still rely on human-operated optimistic oracles, where someone proposes an outcome that is accepted as true unless another participant disputes it within a set time window. If no one objects, the proposed result stands and payouts are distributed accordingly. World's integration with Chainlink is designed to remove that dependency entirely.
The timing aligns with broader momentum around on-chain event markets. Monthly prediction market volume grew from $1.2 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion in January 2026, with more than 840,000 unique wallets now participating every month. With the FIFA World Cup underway and $BTC volatility keeping crypto price markets active, World is entering a high-demand window for the product it is offering.
Sources:
Solana Compass: Phantom's Disclosure Names World Prediction Markets as Infrastructure Provider
Phantom Help Center: Trade Prediction Markets in Phantom
Chainlink Blog: The DeFi Moment for Prediction Markets
Bitcoin’s price fell by 14.1% in the second quarter of 2026, continuing its downward trajectory with a third consecutive quarterly decline. This development has led to a year-to-date decrease of over 30%, with Bitcoin closing the quarter at approximately $60,000. The cryptocurrency has dropped more than 50% from its all-time high in late 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market such as liquidity constraints and reduced investor participation. Market indicators suggest that these trends may persist, aligning with analyst forecasts that expect further declines before a potential stabilization later in the year.
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Key Takeaways Market activity suggests participants are adjusting to Bitcoin’s continued price drops, with recent declines consistent with pricing supportive of NO on near-term recovery. Bitcoin’s fall from its 2025 peak indicates sustained pressure and potential challenges in reversing the current trend. The market’s current pricing implies a cautious stance, with low probabilities assigned to substantial price recoveries in the short term. What to Watch Watch for any shifts in liquidity or investor sentiment that could alter Bitcoin’s trajectory. Key indicators include ETF flows and macroeconomic developments such as Federal Reserve policy announcements. Any significant changes in these areas could influence market pricing and expectations for Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months. Developments around the July 2 market resolution, where current pricing reflects a 50% probability, may provide further insights into market sentiment.
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Bitcoin’s battle around the $60K region is entering a decisive phase after sellers are forcing a breakdown below this major support area. With momentum still favoring the sellers, traders are now watching whether demand can prevent a deeper correction toward the mid-$50K region.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, BTC has extended its bearish trend after losing several major support zones. The recent rejection by the 200-day moving average around $80K and the breakdown of the 100-day moving average near $ 74 K have reinforced the longer-term downtrend, with both moving averages now sloping lower and acting as dynamic resistance.
The price is currently trading around $58.7K after breaking slightly below the $60K demand zone. This indicates that buyers have struggled to defend one of the market’s most important psychological levels. The next significant support lies around the $55K region, while a deeper correction could expose the broader demand area near $52K.
On the upside, Bitcoin would first need to reclaim the $60K level quickly before challenging the $66K to $68K resistance zone. Beyond that, the $72K to $74K area remains the primary barrier, as it coincides with the long-term moving averages. The broader bearish structure would only begin to improve if BTC manages to reclaim this region.
Source: TradingView BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart The lower timeframe presents a similarly bearish picture. Bitcoin continues to trade inside a descending structure, respecting both the upper and lower boundaries throughout the recent decline. Every recovery attempt has produced another lower high, confirming that sellers remain in control.
The latest rejection from the $66K to $68K supply zone pushed BTC back toward the lower boundary of the channel. Price is now hovering around $58.7K, slightly beneath the $60K support area, increasing the probability of another test of lower liquidity and a breakdown of the channel structure.
Meanwhile, the RSI has formed a modest bullish divergence, with momentum making slightly higher lows while price printed fresh lows. Although this divergence could trigger a short-term relief bounce, it has yet to receive confirmation through a decisive breakout above nearby resistance.
Source: TradingView On-Chain Analysis Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has fallen sharply to approximately 0.09, placing the metric deep within the low-profit region shown on the chart.
NUPL measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss held across the Bitcoin network. Higher readings generally reflect widespread investor optimism and elevated profitability, while lower values indicate shrinking profits and deteriorating market sentiment.
The current reading suggests that the majority of holders have seen a significant reduction in unrealized gains compared to previous months. Historically, such depressed NUPL levels have been associated with periods of capitulation or late-stage bear market conditions, when weak hands are gradually flushed out of the market.
While this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, it indicates that much of the speculative excess has already been removed. If selling pressure begins to ease and long-term investors continue accumulating, these historically depressed profitability levels could eventually provide the foundation for a broader recovery. Until price reclaims key resistance zones, however, the technical structure continues to favor the sellers.
The transition from Bitcoin [BTC] mining to AI is emerging as a growing risk as the market heads into Q3.
In a recent post, On-chain Lens reported that Riot Platforms sold around 500 BTC worth approximately $30 million, highlighting this pivot in real time. This move is notable in terms of timing, as Bitcoin has broken below $57k for the first time since early Q4 2025. Typically, such weakness would weigh on RIOT’s stock, yet price action has diverged.
Notably, RIOT closed Q2 up 120%, marking its strongest quarterly performance since Q2 2023. Despite Bitcoin’s 15% correction during Q2, RIOT has significantly outperformed, highlighting a clear decoupling between miner equities and spot BTC.
Source: TradingView (RIOT/USD) This divergence gains relevance in the context of Riot’s capital allocation.
The company sold 3,778 BTC for approximately $289.5 million last quarter, while mining only 1,473 BTC. This means it sold more Bitcoin than it produced, reducing its treasury instead of building it. As a result, holdings fell to around 15,680 BTC, down about 18% year over year.
The recent 500 BTC sale fits into this pattern. It suggests the Bitcoin treasury strategy is flattening, with a growing shift toward AI-related expansion. In this setup, BTC is increasingly being used as a cash reserve to fund data-center and compute investments. Naturally, the question is whether this transition introduces a potential risk factor for Bitcoin heading into H2 2026.
Bitcoin miner stress builds as AI shift accelerates Miner capitulation is becoming a normal feature of bear cycles.
In H1, Bitcoin saw notable miner stress as it closed two consecutive quarters in the red. This was significant because estimated production costs were around $78k, while the spot price has dropped below $58k. In simple terms, miners are now producing Bitcoin at a higher cost than its market price, which puts sustained pressure on profitability.
Amid this backdrop, the Bitcoin hashrate rebounded in June, rising sharply and moving back toward late May highs. This suggests a short-term recovery in network activity and miner participation, even as miner economics remain under pressure. Put simply, the move highlights a divergence between near-term network strength and underlying cost stress.
Source: Blockchain Taken together, if this trend continues through Q3, miner rewards will likely come under pressure as higher hashrate increases competition and raises mining difficulty, reducing earnings per unit of hashpower.
At the same time, this environment can speed up strategic shifts. For larger miners, continued margin pressure increases the need to diversify, including a gradual move into AI and high-performance computing.
As a result, Bitcoin holdings may increasingly be used as cash to fund these investments rather than being held long term, signaling a structural shift in miner behavior through H2. Riot Platforms’s recent sale of 500 BTC, in this context, may be an early sign of this broader trend as Bitcoin heads into Q3.
Final Summary Miners are under pressure because Bitcoin is now cheaper than the cost to mine it. Some miners are selling BTC and shifting toward AI to fund their business.
Alt season is the phase when altcoins outrun Bitcoin and portfolios go vertical. Traders have waited more than 260 days for the latest one. Here is what it is, how to measure it, and why it keeps failing to show up.
Summary
Alt season, or altcoin season, is a sustained period when most altcoins outperform Bitcoin, often producing the largest percentage gains of a market cycle. It is measured by the Altcoin Season Index, which tracks how many of the top 100 altcoins beat Bitcoin over 90 days; above 75 is alt season, below 25 is Bitcoin season, and the index sits near 43 in mid-2026. The classic pattern is a rotation: Bitcoin rises first, then consolidates, and capital flows out into large-cap alts, then mid-caps, then small-caps. The reason alt season keeps not arriving in 2026 is a mix of a bearish Bitcoin far below its record, high Bitcoin dominance, and the ETF wall, where institutional money is locked into Bitcoin through regulated funds instead of rotating into alts. The index is reactionary, confirming an alt season only after it has begun, which is why chasing it late and rotating prematurely are the two most common and costly mistakes. Table of Contents
What alt season isThe Altcoin Season IndexBitcoin dominance and the rotationThe four phases of the cycleWhy alt season keeps not arriving in 2026Historical alt seasonsThe conditions that would trigger oneThe traps to avoidWhere the money rotates firstFrequently Asked Questions Alt season is the crypto market’s most anticipated and most argued-about phase. It is the stretch of a cycle when the thousands of coins that are not Bitcoin suddenly outrun it, and portfolios that spent months going nowhere go vertical. Traders wait for it, debate whether it has started, and often miss it. As of mid-2026, the wait has stretched past 260 days since the last confirmed alt season, long enough that some question whether the phenomenon still works the way it used to. This guide explains what alt season actually is, how it is measured, the rotation that drives it, and, most usefully right now, why it keeps failing to arrive.
An altcoin is any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, from large names like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP down to thousands of small tokens. Alt season is the phase of a market cycle when these altcoins, as a group, significantly outperform Bitcoin over a sustained stretch, typically weeks to a few months. During one, it is common for many altcoins to double or triple while Bitcoin moves sideways or rises more slowly, and the best-performing names can post gains of several hundred percent.
The defining feature is relative performance, not just rising prices. Altcoins can go up while Bitcoin also goes up; what makes it an alt season is that they go up more. Capital that had concentrated in Bitcoin spreads outward into the rest of the market, lifting a broad range of tokens and shifting attention, liquidity, and speculation toward new narratives and projects. It is the part of the cycle that produces the outsized returns crypto is famous for, and also the sharpest reversals when it ends.
Alt season is the counterpart to Bitcoin season, the phase when Bitcoin leads and altcoins lag. The market cycles between the two, and knowing which phase you are in is one of the most useful pieces of context a crypto participant can have, because the same portfolio behaves very differently depending on which is in force.
The Altcoin Season Index The most-cited way to judge the phase is the Altcoin Season Index, a tool that turns the question into a single number. It measures how many of the top 100 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, have outperformed Bitcoin over the previous 90 days, and expresses that as a score from 0 to 100. The thresholds are simple: a reading above 75 signals a confirmed alt season, meaning at least three quarters of the leading altcoins beat Bitcoin over the window. A reading below 25 signals Bitcoin season, where altcoins are broadly lagging. Anything between 25 and 75 is a mixed or neutral market where no clear rotation has taken hold.
As of mid-2026, the index sits around 43, up sharply from June lows near 11 to 12 but still well short of the 75 needed to confirm rotation. That reading tells a precise story: altcoins have gained some strength off the bottom, with more of them starting to beat Bitcoin, but the market remains in neutral territory, leaning toward Bitcoin, not in an alt season. The jump from the low teens to the low 40s shows early signs of life without confirmation.
The index has one important weakness that every user should understand. It is built on a trailing 90-day window, which makes it a lagging, reactionary measure. By the time it climbs above 75 and confirms an alt season, much of the move has already happened, so the confirmation arrives after the best entry points have passed. The index is excellent for describing where the market has been and poor at predicting where it is going next.
Bitcoin dominance and the rotation The companion metric is Bitcoin dominance, often written BTC.D, which is Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization. When dominance is high, Bitcoin holds most of the market’s value; when it falls, value is shifting into altcoins. Traders watch dominance closely because a sustained decline is one of the clearest signs that capital is rotating out of Bitcoin and into the rest of the market, the essence of an alt season.
In mid-2026, Bitcoin dominance sits in the mid-to-high 50s, and analysts have flagged a sustained break below 55%, and ideally lower, as the threshold that would signal a real, broad rotation. Above that level, Bitcoin is still absorbing the market’s capital, and altcoins struggle to get sustained traction. The mechanism links dominance to the index: falling dominance means altcoins are gaining share, which shows up as more of them outperforming Bitcoin, which lifts the Altcoin Season Index. The two metrics describe the same rotation from different angles.
The reason dominance matters so much is that it captures the flow of money, not just price. An altcoin can rise in dollar terms while Bitcoin rises faster, in which case dominance climbs and it is still Bitcoin season despite green candles everywhere. Only when altcoins outpace Bitcoin does dominance fall and rotation begin. That is why seasoned traders watch dominance alongside price: it strips out the illusion that a rising market is automatically an alt season.
The four phases of the cycle Alt season does not appear at random; it tends to arrive at a specific point in a repeating cycle with four rough phases. The first is accumulation, when prices stabilize near the bottom of a downturn and early buyers quietly build positions while sentiment is still poor. The second is the Bitcoin-led rally, when fresh capital enters the market and flows first into Bitcoin, the primary on-ramp, pushing it up and often to new highs while altcoins lag.
The third phase is where alt season lives. After Bitcoin rallies hard and then consolidates, moving sideways, holders who have made gains start looking for higher returns elsewhere and rotate capital into altcoins. This rotation is usually sequential instead of simultaneous: money moves first into large-cap alts like Ethereum, then into mid-caps, and finally into small-cap and speculative tokens as risk appetite grows. The fourth phase is the top and unwind, when euphoria peaks, the last speculative money piles into the smallest and riskiest coins, and the cycle eventually reverses into a downturn.
Understanding this sequence explains why alt season has a prerequisite that is often missed: it typically follows a Bitcoin rally to new highs and a consolidation. Without Bitcoin first leading and then pausing, there is no pool of Bitcoin gains to rotate, and no stable backdrop for capital to move out along the risk curve. The phase is not just a mood; it is a specific stage that depends on what came before it.
Why alt season keeps not arriving in 2026 This is the question on every trader’s mind, and the answer is a convergence of factors instead of a single cause. The first is the most basic: alt season usually follows a Bitcoin rally to new highs and a consolidation, and in 2026 Bitcoin has done the opposite. It sits far below its record, in a bearish, drawn-out drawdown, so the precondition of a fresh Bitcoin high that seeds rotation has simply not been met. There are no large Bitcoin gains sitting around waiting to rotate into alts when Bitcoin itself is down.
The second factor is dominance. Bitcoin dominance has stayed elevated in the mid-to-high 50s, above the threshold analysts see as necessary for broad rotation, which means capital keeps concentrating in Bitcoin instead of spreading out. The third, and the most structurally interesting, is the ETF wall. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have pulled enormous institutional capital into Bitcoin through regulated products, but that money is largely confined to Bitcoin. Unlike the retail flows of past cycles, which moved freely from Bitcoin into thousands of altcoins, institutional capital that enters through a Bitcoin ETF tends to stay in Bitcoin, because those investors gain crypto exposure through the fund and do not rotate down the risk curve into individual tokens. The channel that once carried money from Bitcoin into alts is partly blocked.
There is a fourth factor: selectivity. Even where rotation is happening, it is narrative-driven and concentrated instead of broad. Institutional participation has made the market more discerning, so money managers favor altcoins with clear fundamentals, regulatory standing, and liquidity, while thousands of microcap tokens with no product and no revenue are left behind. The result is that even partial rotations lift a handful of sectors, real-world assets, AI infrastructure, blue-chip DeFi, instead of the whole market. A rising tide that once floated every boat now floats a chosen few, which is why the broad, everything-pumps alt season of past cycles keeps failing to materialize.
Historical alt seasons The past shows what a real alt season looks like, and how the forces behind them change. The first major one ran through 2017 and into early 2018, driven by the initial coin offering boom. Hundreds of new projects raised money by issuing tokens directly to retail investors, flooding the market with new assets and speculators, and Bitcoin dominance collapsed from around 86% in late 2017 to under 40% at the start of 2018 as money poured into altcoins. It ended in a deep, prolonged bear market that erased most of the gains.
The second ran through 2020 and 2021, powered by different narratives: decentralized finance protocols, non-fungible tokens, new layer-one blockchains, and eventually meme coins. Capital rotated from Bitcoin into DeFi, then NFTs, then competing smart-contract chains, producing enormous gains across sectors. Institutional investors began entering crypto during this cycle, making the market larger but also beginning the shift toward the selectivity now visible in 2026.
The contrast between those cycles and the present is the whole lesson. Both past alt seasons ran on free-flowing retail capital that moved easily from Bitcoin into a wide field of tokens. The 2026 market has more institutional money, more regulation, and the ETF wall, all of which channel capital differently. The historical pattern is not broken, but the plumbing has changed, which is why the same triggers produce a weaker and more selective response than they once did.
The conditions that would trigger one If alt season is late instead of dead, what would actually bring it? Analysts point to a set of conditions that, when several align, have historically preceded rotation within a quarter. The first and most important is Bitcoin making a new high and then consolidating, which creates both the gains and the stable backdrop that seed rotation. Until Bitcoin recovers and leads, the sequence cannot begin.
The second is a sustained break in Bitcoin dominance below the mid-50s, confirming that capital is genuinely leaving Bitcoin for alts instead of just lifting the whole market together. The third is expanding liquidity, often from central-bank rate cuts, because looser financial conditions push investors toward higher-risk, higher-beta assets, and altcoins are the highest-beta assets in crypto. The fourth is the Altcoin Season Index sustaining a move above roughly 40 to 50 with momentum, showing that outperformance is broadening instead of flickering.
The practical approach that follows from this is to watch the conditions converge instead of guessing a date. When three or more are present at once, the odds of rotation rise sharply. Until then, the index sitting in neutral is telling you plainly that this is not yet alt season, and the traders who override that signal to get in early are usually the ones left holding underperforming tokens while Bitcoin does the work.
The traps to avoid Alt season is where fortunes are made and lost, and the losses usually come from two predictable mistakes. The first is chasing it late. Because the index is reactionary, by the time it confirms an alt season above 75, the largest and easiest gains have already happened, and entering then means buying near the top of a fast-moving, overextended market. The window is typically two to five months, and the last stretch is the most dangerous, when the smallest and riskiest coins spike and then collapse hardest.
The second mistake is rotating prematurely, moving fully into altcoins before Bitcoin has confirmed a new high and led the cycle. Every past alt season was preceded by Bitcoin leading first, so rotating early means holding depreciating altcoins while Bitcoin outperforms, the opposite of the intended trade. The index sitting in Bitcoin season or neutral is an explicit signal that the rotation has not started, and ignoring it to position early is a common and expensive error.
The deeper trap is treating alt season as a guaranteed event rather than a probability. It is not an on-off switch that must flip in every cycle; it is a phase that depends on conditions, and those conditions can fail to line up, as 2026 shows. The disciplined approach is to track the index and dominance daily, watch for the trigger conditions to converge, and add altcoin exposure selectively and gradually once the signals confirm, instead of betting the portfolio on a rotation that the data has not yet endorsed.
Where the money rotates first If a rotation does begin, it does not lift every token at once, and knowing the order helps separate a real broadening from a narrow bounce. The sequence tends to follow the risk curve. Capital leaves Bitcoin first for the largest, most liquid altcoin, historically Ethereum, because it is the safest step out along the curve and the easiest for large money to enter. A sustained move in the ETH/BTC ratio is often read as the opening signal that rotation has started at the top of the market.
From there, money tends to move down the size ladder. After large-caps like Ethereum absorb the first wave, capital flows into mid-cap tokens with proven products and liquidity, then finally into small-cap and speculative names as risk appetite grows and traders chase higher percentage gains. This is why the late stage of an alt season is the wildest: the smallest and least proven coins move last and hardest, which is also why they fall the fastest when the phase ends. The order is a rough gauge of how far a rotation has traveled.
Sector leadership matters as much as size. In any given cycle, rotation concentrates in a few narratives instead of spreading evenly, and the leading sectors change from cycle to cycle. In 2026 the candidates most often cited include layer-two scaling networks, real-world asset tokenization, blockchain infrastructure for artificial intelligence, and blue-chip decentralized finance. Meme coins typically peak last and crash hardest, which makes their surge a late-stage signal more than an early one. Watching which sectors lead tells you what the market is actually rewarding, not just that alts are moving.
The selectivity point returns here with force. Because institutional capital favors tokens with fundamentals, liquidity, and regulatory standing, a modern rotation can lift a handful of quality names while thousands of microcaps stay flat, which looks nothing like the everything-pumps seasons of the past. A trader watching only a favorite microcap might conclude alt season never came, while large-cap and sector leaders quietly outperformed. Judging rotation by the leaders and the index, not by one held bag, gives a truer read.
The practical use of all this is sequencing your own attention. Track the ETH/BTC ratio for the first sign that money is stepping out of Bitcoin, watch whether strength broadens from large-caps into mid-caps as confirmation, and treat a frenzy in the smallest coins as a late-cycle warning instead of an invitation. Rotation is a process with an order, and reading that order is more useful than waiting for a single index number to flip.
Frequently Asked Questions What is alt season in crypto? Alt season, or altcoin season, is a sustained phase of the market cycle when most altcoins, meaning cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, significantly outperform Bitcoin. During one, many altcoins can double or triple while Bitcoin moves sideways or rises more slowly. It is defined by relative performance, altcoins gaining more than Bitcoin, and it produces some of the largest percentage returns of a cycle.
How is alt season measured? The main tool is the Altcoin Season Index, which tracks how many of the top 100 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, outperformed Bitcoin over the previous 90 days, scored from 0 to 100. Above 75 confirms an alt season, below 25 signals Bitcoin season, and 25 to 75 is neutral. Traders also watch Bitcoin dominance, since a sustained decline signals capital rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins.
What is Bitcoin dominance and why does it matter? Bitcoin dominance is Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization. High dominance means Bitcoin holds most of the market’s value; a falling reading means capital is shifting into altcoins. A sustained break below the mid-50s is often flagged as the threshold for a real, broad rotation. Dominance captures the flow of money, so it can reveal Bitcoin season even when altcoin prices are rising.
Why has alt season not arrived in 2026? Several factors have converged. Bitcoin is far below its record in a bearish drawdown, so the usual precondition of a fresh Bitcoin high has not been met. Dominance has stayed elevated. And the ETF wall keeps institutional money locked in Bitcoin through regulated funds instead of rotating into alts. Rotation that does occur is selective and narrative-driven instead of broad.
What is the ETF wall? The ETF wall describes how spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pull large institutional capital into Bitcoin but largely keep it there. Unlike past cycles where retail money moved freely from Bitcoin into thousands of altcoins, investors who gain exposure through a Bitcoin ETF tend to stay in Bitcoin rather than rotating into individual tokens. This partly blocks the channel that historically carried money into alts.
What would trigger an alt season? Analysts point to a set of conditions that, when several align, have preceded rotation: Bitcoin making a new high and consolidating, a sustained break in Bitcoin dominance below the mid-50s, expanding liquidity such as from rate cuts, and the Altcoin Season Index sustaining above roughly 40 to 50 with momentum. When three or more appear together, the odds of rotation within a quarter rise sharply.
Is the Altcoin Season Index a good timing tool? Only partly. The index is built on a trailing 90-day window, which makes it reactionary. By the time it confirms an alt season above 75, much of the move has already happened, so it describes where the market has been better than where it is going. It is useful for context, but relying on it to time entries usually means arriving late, after the easiest gains have passed.
What mistakes do traders make around alt season? The two most common are chasing it late, buying after the index confirms and the biggest gains are gone, and rotating prematurely, moving into altcoins before Bitcoin has led and confirmed a new high, which leaves them holding underperforming tokens while Bitcoin rises. A third is treating alt season as guaranteed rather than a conditional phase that can fail to arrive, as 2026 has shown.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and market cycles are unpredictable. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Figures such as the Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin dominance are accurate as of July 1, 2026, and will change.
While Bitcoin experienced sharp declines in 2026, Jimmy Song, a Bitcoin Core developer and known maximalist, made important statements about BTC and altcoins.
At this point, Jimmy Song argued in his latest interview that Bitcoin is a better currency, not technology, and described all altcoins as scams.
Jimmy Song states that the biggest misconception about Bitcoin is viewing it simply as a technology.
He argues that Bitcoin should be understood not as a better technology, but as a better form of money.
Song, while having unwavering faith in Bitcoin, is vehemently critical of altcoins. He cites Ethereum and Solana as examples, expressing surprise at investors’ indifference to cyberattacks on projects like ETH and SOL. He argues that this attitude shows investors prefer gambling to making money.
Therefore, he claims that all altcoins, including ETH and SOL, are scams.
Despite the declines in Bitcoin, Song states that he still believes it has outperformed altcoins, and that BTC’s ultimate triumph will only be achieved when it becomes the world’s reserve currency.
Song also drew a parallel between the current state of artificial intelligence and Bitcoin’s GPU mining era between 2010 and 2012.
Song argues that the emergence of specialized chips similar to ASICs will significantly increase AI efficiency, and claims that the resources and capital currently concentrated in AI will eventually return to Bitcoin as the most reliable asset.
*This is not investment advice.
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Taiwan passed its first comprehensive crypto law, creating a licensing regime for virtual asset firms, establishing stablecoin rules, and imposing penalties of up to seven years in prison for unlicensed operations, as the island moves to formalize and expand its digital asset industry.
Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan approved the Virtual Asset Service Act in its third reading on Tuesday, the island’s first comprehensive framework for the crypto sector. Lawmakers sent the bill to President Lai Ching-te, who is expected to sign it into law within ten days.
The act establishes a licensing regime for all virtual asset service providers in Taiwan and hands broad oversight to the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC). Under the law, crypto businesses must secure FSC approval before operating in Taiwan. The framework covers seven categories of providers, including exchanges, trading platforms, transfer firms, custodians, underwriters and lending services.
The legislation creates Taiwan’s first stablecoin framework. Issuers must win approval from both the central bank and the FSC before releasing tokens. The law requires them to hold full reserves, place those reserves in trust, and submit to routine audits and public disclosures.
Domestic stablecoin issuance is restricted to banks, a measure that ties the emerging asset class to the country’s established financial institutions.
JUST IN: 🇹🇼 Taiwan's legislature passes law establishing a regulatory framework for the Bitcoin and crypto industry.
"We're officially entering a new era of digital finance." 🚀
pic.twitter.com/wWH0n2I4cH
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 1, 2026 7 years in prison for breaking the rules Penalties for breaking the rules are steep. Operating an unlicensed virtual asset service, or issuing a stablecoin without approval, can bring up to seven years in prison and fines that reach NT$100 million ($3.14 million).
Fraud and market manipulation carry sentences of three to ten years and fines between NT$10 million and NT$200 million ($314,000 to $6.28 million).
To ease the shift, the FSC set a transition window for firms that completed anti-money laundering registration before the law takes effect. Those companies get twelve months to file license applications and up to twenty-one months to obtain full approval. The FSC said it can extend the window by three months, a one-time option.
The vote positions Taiwan among a growing list of jurisdictions moving from patchwork guidance to a single statute. Kenya and Ghana signed virtual asset laws in recent months, and lawmakers across Asia continue to draft rules for exchanges and stablecoin issuers.
Taiwan’s approach pairs an open door for licensed operators with some of the region’s harsher criminal penalties, a balance regulators framed as a bid to protect investors without stifling the industry.
Taiwan’s embrace of bitcoin and crypto The passage builds on a broader shift in Taiwan’s stance toward digital assets. The government has disclosed holdings of 210 bitcoin valued near $18 million, and officials have floated plans to launch a strategic bitcoin reserve and study broader BTC regulation.
The new act gives that ambition a legal foundation, defining who may operate, under what conditions, and with what consequences for those who ignore the rules.
Micah Zimmerman
Micah first discovered Bitcoin in 2018 but remained a skeptic on the sidelines for too long. Since 2021, he has covered crypto and business and now works as a news reporter for Bitcoin Magazine, based in North Carolina.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that for Bitcoin’s price to stage a lasting recovery and firmly return to positive territory, more than $1 trillion in fresh institutional capital would be required. In his July 1 analysis, Ju shared on-chain data highlighting how the amount of capital needed to generate meaningful returns in each Bitcoin cycle has significantly increased over time.
Rising capital requirementsAccording to Ju’s data, a net inflow of $2.7 billion in 2011 coincided with a staggering 55,436% surge in Bitcoin’s price. In the current cycle, a capital influx of $697 billion has corresponded with a 689% price increase. To double Bitcoin’s price from current levels, approximately $101 billion in net inflow is now necessary—dramatically higher than the $5 million needed back in 2011.
Ki Young Ju emphasized that the next parabolic rally will require even deeper allocations to institutional portfolios, arguing that Bitcoin must establish itself as a core macro asset, rather than being relegated to ETF trading alone.
Ju added that if more than $1 trillion in new capital is injected into Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization, another major bull run remains possible. For context, he pointed out that gold’s market capitalization stands at around $27 trillion.
Glossary: “Realized market capitalization” refers to the total value of coins in circulation, calculated based on the price at which each coin last moved. This metric is frequently used to better understand the market’s aggregate cost basis.
PeriodNet inflowPrice increase2011$2.7 billion55,436%Current cycle$697 billion689%Net inflow required to double price today$101 billion2x price targetCapital flows shift toward AIFor now, the institutional capital that Ju deems necessary has not shifted toward Bitcoin. In recent weeks, as gold, silver, and Bitcoin all declined simultaneously, funds moving out of hedge positions have instead gravitated toward artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Some Bitcoin miners have also redirected computing power to AI hosting services, which offer more predictable revenue than the volatile mining business.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $58,800, over 45% below its October peak above $120,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen consistent outflows in recent weeks. According to SoSoValue data, total outflows on June 30 reached $222.64 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone registering $212.45 million in redemptions.
On-chain signals show mounting sell pressureOn-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr noted in his July 1 report that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges has climbed to 122,000 BTC—52% higher than the roughly 80,000 BTC registered in February. The annual baseline stands at 82,000 BTC, with current values nearing the upper standard deviation band at 131,000 BTC.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which tracks whether coins are being moved at a profit or a loss, has been below the 1.0 breakeven mark on 37 out of the past 61 days. Adler pointed out that while February also saw similar loss-driven selling, exchange inflows were considerably lower at the time. This correction, he warned, features both higher volumes and more persistent stop-loss selling, amplifying downward pressure.
Axel Adler Jr. observed that the current downturn is more severe than February’s, as the market faces both heightened selling pressure and sustained loss-driven exits simultaneously.
Potential new buyer groupsAccording to Grayscale Research’s Zach Pandl, digital asset treasury companies have been the primary drivers of institutional demand in this cycle. For the next phase, he sees two additional groups as potential major buyers. Grayscale is a leading crypto asset management firm known for its digital asset investment products.
Pandl noted that the first group could be new investors who inherit a portion of the $110 trillion controlled by baby boomers and the silent generation in the coming decades. If just 2% of that wealth flows into crypto assets, it could create $2.2 trillion in new demand. The second group involves corporate treasuries outside the crypto ecosystem—Pandl cited SpaceX, whose 18,712 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $1.4 billion, could serve as a catalyst if the company goes public.
Despite this, there is currently no sign that either of these groups is buying at scale. With AI infrastructure continuing to attract record levels of capital allocation, the trillion-dollar influx that Bitcoin needs appears, for now, to be headed elsewhere.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Small Transfers Dominate Litecoin Network ActivityNew on-chain data shows retail participants are driving a significant portion of activity on the Litecoin network. According to figures shared by Litecoin and tracked by ForceXHQ, transactions between 1 and 5 $LTC accounted for a quarter of all transfers recorded on the blockchain over the past 30 days, totalling 1.32 million transactions in that range alone.
The second most common bracket was transfers between 0.1 and 0.5 $LTC, another segment firmly in retail territory. Together, the two size categories made up more than 42% of all Litecoin transactions during the period, suggesting the network is being used predominantly by everyday participants rather than large holders or institutional desks moving significant sums.
A Network Built Around Low-Cost, Everyday PaymentsThe data aligns with Litecoin's longstanding positioning as a payments-focused blockchain. BitInfoCharts tracks average transaction fees and network statistics for Litecoin, which is known for keeping costs well below a cent on most transfers. Litecoin also carries a block time of roughly 2.5 minutes, making it well suited to everyday commerce and point-of-sale payments.
On the institutional side, Canary Capital launched the Canary Litecoin ETF (Nasdaq: LTCC) in 2025, becoming the first U.S. spot Litecoin ETF to have its shares registered with the SEC. Although assets under management remain modest, the product gives institutions and retail brokerage clients regulated exposure to Litecoin for the first time.
Taken together, the transaction size data from ForceXHQ and the broader on-chain metrics point to a network where retail participation remains the foundation, even as institutional interest begins to build around it.
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Ripple President Monica Long recently shared a vision for the future of digital payments. "The future of payments will be multichain, interoperable, and built on institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure," said the Ripple President.
The future of payments will be multichain, interoperable, and built on institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure.
Our focus is simple: continue making the XRPL the leading blockchain for institutional payments – and a natural home for the next generation of key regulated… https://t.co/8Pc5Yleskr
— Monica Long (@MonicaLongSF) June 30, 2026 Long was reacting to recent developments, including Ripple joining the Open USD stablecoin as a day-one integration partner, highlighting the company's commitment to open, multichain infrastructure that supports institutional adoption across the digital asset ecosystem.
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Open USD, a dollar-pegged stablecoin, was launched by a consortium of more than 140 financial and technology companies, including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe and Coinbase, on Tuesday.
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The roll call of backers resembles a cross-section of Wall Street and Silicon Valley. Ripple, BlackRock, BNY, Standard Chartered, Google and Shopify are all listed as founding partners.
With financial institutions showing growing interest in blockchain-based settlement and regulated stablecoins, Ripple President Long highlights the company's long-term strategy for expanding the role of the XRP Ledger, XRP and RLUSD in institutional finance.
XRP, XRPL and RLUSD vision outlinedAccording to Long, Ripple's focus remains simple: to continue making the XRP Ledger the leading blockchain for institutional payments. This demonstrates that Ripple is positioning the XRP Ledger as infrastructure for institutions seeking blockchain-based settlement solutions.
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Ripple is also concentrating its efforts to make the XRP Ledger a natural home for the next generation of key regulated stablecoins while growing the utility and adoption of RLUSD and XRP globally.
Long's comments show Ripple's commitment to enhancing the real-world utility and adoption of XRP alongside RLUSD as institutional demand continues.
Ripple Prime processes over $3 trillion annually on behalf of over 300 institutional clients, according to Mike Higgins. During a recent discussion, the Ripple Prime CEO shared where the infrastructure is headed next in an effort to bring the prime brokerage and clearing layer directly onto the XRP Ledger.
In a major XRP news today, a key on-chain whale indicator flipped negative for Ripple’s native crypto asset XRP. The on-chain metric now flashes a sell signal for the first time since February. Will XRP price witness further selling pressure and drop below $1 in the coming days amid growing headwinds?
Ripple Whale Flow Turns Negative for the First Time in 4 Months The XRP Whale Flow 30-DMA metric has now flipped negative, according to CryptoQuant on-chain data. This marks the first time the key Ripple whale indicator signaled selling pressure among whales after nearly 4 months.
XRP faced renewed distribution pressure over the past few weeks despite XRP Ledger upgrades, with Ripple whales liquidating their holdings. XRP price top in mid-May coincided with sustained whale distribution and a subsequent correction.
As CoinGape warned earlier, XRP whale activity has kept declining since early May. The whale accumulation dropped from 9-13 million daily whale activity to nearly 4 million XRP per day.
On Tuesday, whale flow dropped to 1.24 million. This indicates a shift in whale behavior amid rising uncertainty and a broader crypto market crash.
Ripple executive chairman Chris Larsen’s wallet addresses also became active again during this period. However, the transfers were significantly lower to shake XRP price.
XRP Whale Flow. Source: CryptoQuant XRP Funding Rates on Binance Hit 3-Month Low As XRP price failed to build upside momentum, funding rates for XRP perpetual contracts on Binance continued to fall. This indicates increasing selling pressure for Ripple’s native crypto asset in the derivatives market.
According to the latest funding rates data, the funding rate has fallen to almost -0.0139, the lowest level in more than three months. This means a shift in trader sentiment toward short positions.
Funding rates have fluctuated between positive and negative values over the past few months, triggering rising XRP prices and increased demand for long positions. However, this balance gradually shifted as bullish momentum weakened.
While persistently negative funding rates reflect weak market sentiment, reaching extremely low levels can sometimes trigger a short squeeze.
XRP Funding Rates. Source: CryptoQuant Will Price Fall amid Bearish XRP News? XRP price fell to a 24-hour low of $1.02 in the past 24 hours. But the price has since rebounded to $1.04, with a 24-hour high of $1.05. Moreover, trading volume has remained low in the past few days, indicating a decline in interest among traders.
Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that XRP price could find support at $0.90. He highlighted that the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) on-chain data showed $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51 as key support levels to watch.
Moreover, XRP futures open interest fell nearly 2% to $2.28 billion as the Clarity Act passing odds tanked. The total open interest dropped more than 0.50% on CME and more than 2.30% on Binance.
Moreover, spot XRP ETFs recorded $2.83 million in net outflows on Tuesday, with Bitwise XRP ETF recording $5.82 million in redemptions. Also, Canary’s XRPC saw $2.99 million in inflows.
JPMorgan has voiced its support for the CLARITY Act, a legislative proposal designed to bring clearer rules to digital assets in the United States. Arguing that a transparent and consistent regulatory framework is vital for the growth of the crypto sector, the bank also cautioned that regulation should not be rushed.
Cautious optimism alongside support for regulationIn a joint opinion piece, JPMorgan executives Umar Farooq and Peter Muriungi stated that digital assets have moved beyond the realm of experimentation and are now becoming core elements of modern finance. The pair highlighted the growing use of digital assets in payment systems, trading, settlement, and cross-border transactions.
Umar Farooq and Peter Muriungi emphasized that digital assets have left behind their experimental phase, and are now a visible part of the financial infrastructure, from payments to international transfers.
According to the executives, the next frontier in financial innovation will be tokenization and programmable money. By moving real-world assets onto blockchain networks and automating transactions through smart contracts, processes such as settlement can be accelerated, costs lowered, and global payments made more efficient.
Glossary: Tokenization refers to creating a digital representation of real-world assets—such as stocks, bonds, or real estate—on a blockchain. Programmable money describes digital currencies that can transfer automatically when certain conditions are met.
Still, JPMorgan stressed that innovation should be matched by robust safeguards. The bank argued that an effective legal framework must clearly define consumer protections, market integrity, and the responsibilities of regulatory bodies. Without these, there is a risk that vulnerabilities will shift to less well-supervised areas.
Why this matters for Ripple and XRPThis approach carries particular significance for XRP and Ripple. Ripple has long grappled with regulatory uncertainty in the US. Its high-profile legal battle with the SEC concluded in August of last year. Despite some notable court victories for Ripple, a comprehensive framework governing the oversight of digital assets remains unresolved.
The CLARITY Act is designed to reduce this uncertainty and distribute regulatory responsibilities more clearly. With more defined rules, banks, fintechs, developers, and institutional investors could be expected to place greater trust in blockchain-based financial products.
Potential boost for institutional adoptionClearer regulation could provide a favorable environment for Ripple, which aims to enable faster and lower-cost cross-border payments. As the legal landscape becomes more defined, financial institutions may be more inclined to integrate Ripple’s payment technology and use XRP as an on-demand liquidity bridge asset.
JPMorgan’s support highlights a growing shift toward blockchain-backed financial infrastructure on a broader scale. Should the CLARITY Act become law, it is expected to reduce at least part of the regulatory uncertainty seen as a major obstacle to institutional participation.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The monthly XRP Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has dropped to its lowest level in six years, closing way below the -100 baseline in June.
The decline came amid a weak close in June, when the indicator stood at -134.61 following a nearly 22% drop in XRP’s price for the month. This made June the asset’s worst monthly performance since February 2025.
XRP Commodity Channel Index Hits 6-Year Low While XRP has opened July with a small rebound, rising 0.61% to trade at $1.04487, the CCI has collapsed further this new month, currently sitting at -137.30.
For context, when the CCI falls below -100, it usually points to oversold conditions. At -137.30, XRP now sits far below its 20-period average, suggesting that the current level of selling may not last for long.
The last time XRP’s CCI reached a similar level was in March 2020, during the COVID-19 market crash, when the price dropped below $0.20. During this period, the Commodity Channel Index crashed to -140.67, marking XRP’s bottom for that downturn.
After the crash, XRP’s price recovered considerably and climbed to around $1.96 within the following year. While it is important to consider this historical context, it does not necessarily mean the same kind of recovery will happen again.
How the Current Decline Compares to 2020 The 1-month chart shows a similarity between the CCI low in March 2020 and the one recorded in June 2026, as both sit at nearly the same depth below the oversold level.
However, the reasons behind the two drops are different. In 2020, the market fell quickly due to an external shock and then recovered just as fast. This time, XRP has been moving down gradually since Q4 2025 within a falling channel.
The CCI also shows a secondary signal line at -3.69, as the main CCI remains at -137.30. The gap between these two lines creates room for a possible crossover, which traders often see as an early sign of recovery.
However, for now, no crossover has happened, so the oversold reading alone does not confirm a reversal. The price still needs to show clear signs of strength before any change in direction could emerge.
XRP Monthly CCI XRP Ichimoku Cloud Confirms Bearish Trend Meanwhile, the monthly Ichimoku Cloud confirms the extent of the ongoing bearish trend, as all four main components remain above XRP’s current price of $1.04487.
Specifically, the Tenkan-sen stands at $1.79398, while the Kijun-sen sits higher at $2.02423, placing it about 94% above the current price. Since the Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen, the chart confirms a bearish crossover, showing that short-term movement still follows the broader downtrend.
Further, Senkou Span A is at $1.90910, and Senkou Span B is at $1.97650, forming a bearish cloud where Span B stays above Span A. This presents a strong resistance zone between $1.90910 and $2.02423, meaning XRP must push through a tight range of about $0.12 before the structure can turn neutral.
The only slightly positive signal comes from the Chikou Span, which compares the current price of $1.04487 with past price action from May 2024, when XRP traded below $1.00. The position gives a mild bullish signal but has little weight since the rest of the indicators remain clearly bearish.
XRP Falling Channel and Key Price Levels Also, XRP has moved within a falling channel since October 2025, forming a downward pattern across nine monthly candles. The upper boundary of this channel now sits between $1.40 and $1.60, while the lower boundary points to a range between $0.85 and $0.90. This lower area lines up with a key support level at $0.87493.
At the moment, XRP trades at $1.04487, just $0.04487 above the important $1.00 level. If the price closes below $1.00 on the monthly chart, it would break a key level that supported the early stages of the 2024 rally.
If this happens, the next support comes in at $0.87493, followed by $0.66158, a level last seen in early 2023 and about 37% below the current price.
On the upside, XRP faces multiple resistance levels. It must first move past $1.20, then break above the channel’s upper boundary between $1.40 and $1.60.
After that, it would need to clear the Tenkan-sen at $1.79398, the cloud between $1.90910 and $1.97650, and finally the Kijun-sen at $2.02423. Only a strong move above all these levels would shift the overall trend from bearish to neutral.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
Ripple has released 1 billion XRP into the market squarely on schedule.
Executed in the early hours of July 1, the release follows a predetermined, mathematically enforced cryptographic schedule that has governed the asset's supply since 2017.
According to on-chain tracker Whale Alert, the 1 billion tokens (valued at approximately $1.04 billion) were released across three separate tranches.
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On-chain data logged the transactions taking place at approximately 07:30 AM, confirming the exact 1 billion token figure. The funds were released from Ripple's escrow accounts in three distinct instalments.
Ensuring predicability The mechanism behind this massive monthly release is fully automated and hardcoded into the ledger. In December 2017, Ripple sought to eliminate fears of a sudden market dump by placing 55 billion XRP into a series of smart-contract-based escrows on the XRP Ledger. The system is programmed to release a maximum of 1 billion tokens on the first day of every month.
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A billion tokens unlocked does not mean a billion tokens flood the open retail market. Historically, Ripple returns a significant majority (often between 600 million and 800 million XRP) back into new escrow contracts shortly after the unlock, keeping only a fraction for operational expenses and institutional sales.
The primary metric the market watches is not the unlock itself, but rather the subsequent "re-escrow" transactions that typically follow within 24 to 48 hours. Those secondary transactions dictate the net new supply actually entering circulation for the month.
As reported by U.Today, CTO Emeritus David Schwartz addressed speculation that Ripple's XRP escrow could run dry by 2035. He stated that pinpointing an exact year is impossible because it depends entirely on Ripple's future operational needs and how much of the monthly 1 billion unlocked XRP gets returned to escrow.
In the meantime, crypto commentator Bill Morgan recently urged Ripple to speed up the release of its escrowed XRP tokens instead of continuously re-locking them. He argues that getting the circulating supply to 100% faster would allow XRP to quickly become "the best hard money."
Current estimates suggest it will take another nine years (around 2035) for Ripple’s remaining stash of roughly 38.15 billion XRP to be completely emptied.
As investments flow out of bitcoin, ether, sol ETFs, XRP and HYPE flows stand strong. (Tarik Haiga/Unsplash)Summary
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
XRP and Hyperliquid’s HYPE have emerged as notable bright spots amid record outflows from U.S. spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
XRP-linked ETFs added $59.4 million in June, a third straight month of net inflows, albeit at a slower pace than during the previous two months, according to SoSoValue data. HYPE funds notched up $161 million in net inflows during the month.
In contrast, bitcoin BTC$59,720.20 ETFs suffered record outflows of more than $4 billion, ether (ETH) ETFs saw $528.99 million in outflows and solana (SOL) ETFs shed $786,000.
The positive flows into both XRP and HYPE funds signal potential for significant spot price appreciation, particularly if bitcoin and the broader market stabilize.
HYPE also has support at the fundamentals level. Its parent, the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, generated just over $80 million in fees over the past 30 days, according to DefiLlama. This places it third among all protocols and behind only stablecoin giants Tether ($486.9 million) and Circle Internet ($184.07 million).
Speaking of potential for market stability, July offers hope. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at the FxPro, July tends to be a positive month for the largest cryptocurrency.
"Over the past 15 years, bitcoin has ended the month higher on ten occasions and lower on five. The average gain was 19%, while the average decline was 7.8%," he said in an email.
Still, history is no guide to future performance and seasonality alone may not be enough and strong inflows into spot ETFs may be needed to lift BTC. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trendingBitcoin’s 20% June crash looks even deadlier on the charts. Here’s why (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s June candlestick looks like a solid red brick with virtually no wicks, a clear sign of uninterrupted bear dominance throughout the month and a warning that more losses could happen in the weeks ahead.World shares ease, yields rise as yen hits 40-year low (Reuters): Equities around the world started the quarter cautiously ahead of key U.S. jobs data, as uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations remained and traders watched for possible Japanese intervention in forex markets after the yen hit a 40-year-lows.Gold prices fall further after worst quarter in 13 years as interest rate fears hit bullion (CNBC): Gold prices fell further, after the precious metal closed its worst quarter in 13 years. Gold futures slipped 1.24% to $3,989.00.Trump pocketed more than $1 billion from crypto ties as industry headed toward slump (CoinDesk): President Donald Trump earned more than $1 billion from crypto sales and royalties last year while living in the White House and pursuing pro-crypto policies in his administration.Today’s signalThe SPDR gold shares ETF is slipping into a death cross. (TradingView)Need evidence of just how unpopular store-of-value assets are right now? Check out the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the largest in the world.
Its price is slipping into a death cross, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day average. This indicator is widely viewed as a signal of long-term pain.
BlackRock's bitcoin ETF (IBIT) slipped into its own death cross in December and has since fallen by 35%.
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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Jun 30, 2026
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Why it matters:
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
TLDR XRP price shows mixed signals as bullish patterns emerge while whale selling continues. Technical indicators suggest a short-term rebound may develop after recent selling pressure. Network activity has increased significantly, indicating stronger usage on the XRP Ledger. Whale transactions show continued selling, which may limit upward price movement. The $1.06 level remains a key support that could determine the next direction. XRP price approaches a decisive level as technical signals and on-chain data show conflicting trends. Recent indicators point to a possible rebound, yet large holders continue selling tokens. As a result, XRP price now trades near key support that may define its short-term direction.
Bullish Signals Suggest Short-Term XRP Price Rebound Technical indicators show early signs that XRP price may attempt a short-term recovery. The Tom DeMark Sequential indicator recently printed a “9” candlestick on the daily chart. This pattern often signals trend exhaustion and suggests a brief rebound may follow selling pressure.
At the same time, XRP price formed a Morning Star Doji pattern across three sessions. This formation often indicates fading bearish momentum and a possible local bottom. Therefore, traders may see this structure as an early signal of price stabilization.
If buying volume increases, XRP price could move toward the $1.27 resistance level. A stronger push may extend gains toward the $1.35 region. However, price strength depends on sustained demand and reduced selling pressure.
Rising Network Activity Supports XRP Price Outlook On-chain data shows a notable rise in XRP Ledger activity during recent weeks. Santiment reported that daily active addresses increased from 23,000 to nearly 40,000. This change reflects a sharp rise of about 50% within a short period.
Higher network activity often signals stronger engagement and growing transaction demand. Increased participation can support XRP price by improving liquidity conditions. Therefore, the recent surge may strengthen the broader market structure.
However, Santiment stated that “address growth may partly reflect internal movements rather than new demand.”
This comment suggests that activity alone may not confirm strong market demand. As a result, XRP price may still face pressure despite higher usage levels.
✍️ TL;DR: XRP’s massive new wallet creations & FOMO emerge in midst of price threatening to drop below $1
📊 Metrics used: Network Growth, Pos/Neg Social Ratio
🔗 Link to chart: https://t.co/0WJTZI6VSS
📉 $XRP is still hanging on to the $1.00 support zone, trading around ~$1.04… pic.twitter.com/41bd8NqCQJ
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) June 30, 2026
Whale Selling and Key Support Define XRP Price Path Large holders continue to reduce exposure, which adds pressure on XRP price movement. Santiment reported that whales sold more than 30 million XRP within five days. This selling activity may weaken bullish signals and limit upside potential.
Glassnode data identifies $1.06 as a critical support level for XRP price stability. More than 830 million XRP previously traded at this level, making it a strong demand zone. If price holds above this area, buyers may attempt a recovery.
A break below $1.06 could push XRP price toward lower support levels. Key areas include $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51, where past trading activity remains high. Therefore, XRP price now faces a make-or-break moment as signals remain divided.
The assumption is simple: Ripple goes public, XRP moons. The reality is that Ripple equity and the XRP token are different assets, and the channels connecting them are weaker than the hype suggests.
Summary
Ripple remains private with no S-1 on file, but a $750 million buyback fixed its valuation near $50 billion and private secondary shares have surged to about $136.90, keeping IPO speculation loud. Ripple equity and the XRP token are legally separate: owning XRP gives no claim on the company, and a public listing would not hand shareholders or token holders any automatic link between the two. The plausible transmission channels are sentiment, Ripple’s escrow and sell behavior, institutional validation, and value accrual, and each is weaker or more two-sided than the “IPO equals XRP moon” story assumes. There is a real counter-case that an IPO could pull capital away from XRP, by giving investors who want Ripple exposure a way to buy the stock instead of the token. The evidence so far is mixed: XRP briefly re-coupled to Ripple’s rising private valuation, yet the token is still down about 26% on the year, which points to weak, not strong, transmission. The reflex in the XRP community is automatic. Ripple goes public, the story goes, and XRP rockets alongside it. The logic feels obvious, because Ripple and XRP are wrapped together in the same brand, the same headlines, and the same decade of shared history. But an initial public offering sells shares in a company, and XRP is a token that confers no ownership of that company.
JUST IN: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says the company processed $13T in payments last year with no immediate IPO plans pic.twitter.com/f9bd80FPsX
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) May 5, 2026 Whether a Ripple listing would actually move the token is not a matter of sentiment or loyalty. It is a question of mechanism: through what channels, if any, would value flow from a Ripple equity event into the XRP price? This piece examines those channels one by one, and finds them thinner than the hype implies. The XRP holder payout question has already become a separate community obsession, but the XRP holder payout question is not the same as a price-transmission mechanism.
The starting point: Ripple equity and XRP are different assets Everything begins with a distinction the excitement tends to blur. Ripple Labs is a private company. XRP is a digital asset that trades on public exchanges. There is no mechanism that entitles an XRP holder to Ripple shares, dividends, or any slice of the company’s profits, and a public listing would not create one.
If Ripple lists tomorrow, an XRP holder owns exactly what they owned the day before: a token, not a piece of the business. The one concrete link runs the other direction. Ripple is itself one of the largest holders of XRP, with tens of billions of tokens held in escrow that it releases on a schedule and uses, in part, to fund operations. So the company’s relationship to the token is that of a giant holder and periodic seller, not a value conduit that passes equity gains down to token holders.
Ripple has no specific IPO timeline amid recent $500M raise
Ripple says it has no IPO timeline as fresh funding and acquisitions reduce the need for public markets.
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) January 7, 2026 That asymmetry matters for the whole analysis. When people say an IPO would help XRP, they are really claiming that something about Ripple becoming public would change demand for, or supply of, the token. The rest of this piece tests each version of that claim. Until then, Ripple equity and XRP should be treated as related but legally separate assets, not two versions of the same exposure.
Channel one: sentiment and attention The first and most immediate channel is psychological. An IPO would be a media event, a wave of coverage, analyst notes, and credibility that reframes Ripple from a litigation-scarred crypto firm into a public company vetted by underwriters and public markets. In a market where attention is a real driver of price, that halo could spill onto XRP, lifting the token on narrative even without any mechanical connection. That is the channel the community understands instinctively, because XRP has always traded partly on Ripple headlines.
There is some evidence this channel is live. When Ripple’s private secondary shares surged, one analysis linked the move to XRP briefly re-coupling with the company’s rising valuation, as the market started treating the private-share price near $136.90 as a fundamental signal for the token. That is the sentiment channel working in real time: a Ripple equity data point moving XRP through association rather than mechanics. It is also why where XRP could go from here depends partly on whether traders treat corporate news as a catalyst or just another temporary headline.
The limit is that sentiment is fickle and shallow. It can lift a token into an event and drop it just as fast afterward, and it does not build the sustained demand that holds a price up. A narrative bump around an IPO is plausible. A durable re-rating on sentiment alone is not, which is why this channel, while real, is the weakest foundation for a lasting move.
Channel two: Ripple’s escrow and sell behavior The most underappreciated channel runs through Ripple’s own balance sheet. Because Ripple holds a vast XRP escrow and sells tokens to help fund itself, anything that changes the company’s need to sell XRP changes the supply hitting the market. This is where an IPO could actually matter mechanically. A successful listing would raise cash and give Ripple a public currency, its own stock, to fund acquisitions and operations.
A cash-rich, publicly funded Ripple might lean less on programmatic XRP sales, easing a source of sell pressure that has weighed on the token for years. That is a genuine, if indirect, bullish path. Less selling from the single largest holder is a supply-side positive that does not depend on sentiment. It is the most concrete way an IPO could help XRP.
The two-sided catch is disclosure. Going public subjects Ripple to far heavier reporting requirements, which means the escrow, the sales, and the token’s role in Ripple’s finances would face new scrutiny from public-market investors and regulators. Greater transparency could reassure the market, or it could surface uncomfortable details about how much the company depends on token sales, which would cut the other way. The escrow channel is the strongest mechanical link, but its direction is not guaranteed.
Channel three: institutional access and validation The third channel is legitimacy. A public Ripple would sit inside the regulated financial system in a way it does not today, and that validation could radiate outward to the whole XRP ecosystem. The backdrop already leans this way: XRP was recognized as a commodity in March, and seven spot XRP exchange-traded funds are trading with roughly $1.43 billion in cumulative inflows. A high-profile Ripple listing would add another layer of institutional acceptance, potentially making allocators more comfortable holding XRP through regulated products.
The argument is that validation compounds. Each step that moves XRP from contested asset toward accepted infrastructure lowers the barrier for the next institution, and a Ripple IPO would be a large step. In a world where the token already has ETF access, a public parent company strengthens the case that the ecosystem is durable. That is also why XRP’s regulatory status matters more than the IPO hype itself: institutions care less about community excitement than about whether the asset can be held cleanly under durable rules.
The weakness is that validation of the company is not the same as demand for the token. Institutions can conclude that Ripple is a fine investment and express that view by buying the stock, which does nothing for XRP. Legitimacy is a soft tailwind, helpful at the margin, but it does not force anyone to buy the token. For a durable move, validation has to become measurable token demand, not just a better story around the issuer.
Channel four: the value-accrual problem This is the channel that breaks the simple story, and it is the most important. For an IPO to lift XRP durably, Ripple’s commercial success has to translate into demand for the token. But Ripple’s business and XRP’s value are only loosely coupled. Many of Ripple’s bank and payment partners use its software without touching XRP at all, and the company earns revenue from services, licensing, and acquisitions that do not route through the token.
Ripple can thrive as a company while XRP stagnates, because the token’s value depends on settlement usage and demand for XRP itself, instead of on Ripple’s profit and loss. This value-accrual gap explained is the reason a Ripple IPO is not the guaranteed catalyst holders imagine. An IPO rewards equity holders for the company’s success. It does not, by itself, create the on-chain demand that would lift the token.
Unless a listing changes how much XRP is actually used to move value, the mechanical link from Ripple’s public-market performance to the XRP price is faint. The token needs its own demand story, and the IPO does not write one. It may make Ripple more visible, more credible, and more valuable. None of that automatically makes XRP more scarce or more necessary.
The counter-case: an IPO could hurt XRP The overlooked possibility is that a Ripple listing works against the token. For years, buying XRP was one of the only ways for a public investor to express a view on Ripple’s success. An IPO removes that constraint by offering the pure play: if you want exposure to Ripple, you buy the stock, which actually owns the business, the revenue, and the growth. The token, which owns none of that, becomes the inferior vehicle for a Ripple bet.
That substitution could siphon capital and attention away from XRP toward the equity. Some of the speculative demand that flowed into the token as a Ripple proxy would rationally rotate into shares once shares exist. In this reading, the IPO does not transmit value to XRP at all. It competes with it.
The very event the community treats as the catalyst could turn out to be a drain, redirecting the Ripple trade into a security that leaves the token behind. That does not mean XRP must fall on a Ripple IPO. It means the direction is not obvious, because the listing creates both a halo effect and a substitute asset. The market would have to decide whether XRP remains the best way to trade Ripple’s ecosystem once Ripple stock exists.
What the evidence shows so far The cleanest test available is how XRP has behaved as Ripple’s private valuation has climbed. The answer is telling. Ripple’s secondary shares surged to about $136.90 and its valuation was fixed near $50 billion, and while XRP did briefly re-couple to that move on sentiment, the token still trades near $1, down roughly 26% on the year. If the transmission were strong, a 376% surge in Ripple’s private-share price should have dragged XRP sharply higher.
It did not. The token acknowledged the news and kept falling with the broader market. That is the empirical verdict: transmission exists, but it is weak. Ripple getting more valuable has not made XRP more valuable in any durable way, which is exactly what the value-accrual analysis predicts.
An actual IPO would be a bigger event than a private-share revaluation, so the sentiment bump could be larger. But the underlying mechanics that limited the private-market spillover would still apply to a public one. The stock would price Ripple’s business, while XRP would still need regulatory clarity, ETF flows, settlement usage, and broader market support. The link is real enough for traders to chase, but not strong enough to treat as automatic.
If the IPO is a weak lever, what is a strong one? The catalysts that genuinely drive XRP are the ones that change token demand or supply directly. Regulatory outcomes rank first: whether crypto market-structure legislation codifies XRP’s status cleanly, which affects how freely institutions can hold it. ETF flows rank second, because sustained inflows into the seven XRP funds are real, measurable demand for the token.
Settlement usage ranks third: whether XRP is actually used to move value at scale, against the escrow supply that keeps entering the market. That is where XRP fits in settlement becomes more important than the IPO narrative. XRP needs recurring use as a bridge asset or liquidity tool, not just Ripple’s name in public-market headlines. And the direction of Bitcoin and the broader market ranks alongside all of them, since XRP rarely fights the tape.
Against those, a Ripple IPO sits at the edge of the picture. It could add a sentiment bump, it could ease Ripple’s XRP selling, and it could burnish the ecosystem’s legitimacy. Each is a real but modest channel, and at least one plausible effect points the wrong way. The honest conclusion is that a Ripple IPO would be a meaningful corporate event that most likely moves XRP far less than the community expects, and possibly not in the direction they assume.
The Coinbase and Circle precedent The clearest way to test the transmission question is to look at crypto-adjacent companies that already trade publicly, because they show what happens when a company and the tokens around it are separated on public markets. Coinbase is the obvious case. Its stock gives investors exposure to the exchange’s revenue, which rises and falls with trading volume, but owning the stock is not the same as owning the assets that trade on it. When crypto rallies, Coinbase revenue tends to rise, so there is a loose correlation, yet the stock and the broader token market frequently move apart, because the equity is priced on the business and the tokens are priced on their own supply and demand.
Circle offers a sharper version of the lesson. Circle issues the USDC stablecoin, but USDC is a dollar-pegged token that does not float, so Circle equity captures the value of the issuing business, the reserves, the yield, the growth, while the token itself is designed to stay at a dollar. The company can be worth a great deal while the token it issues, by construction, accrues none of that equity value. That is the extreme illustration of the point: a token and its issuer’s stock can be almost entirely decoupled.
Congrats to @Bullish on a successful IPO! 👏
A portion of the IPO proceeds were settled in $RLUSD, minted on the XRP Ledger. This is the first public listing to bring the settlement process onchain and sets a precedent for how stablecoins can shape future listings. https://t.co/AD4AkpPnLD
— Ripple (@Ripple) August 19, 2025 XRP sits somewhere between these cases. It is not a dollar peg, so it can appreciate, but it is also not an equity claim on Ripple, so it does not capture the company’s growth the way shares would. Even when Ripple-linked infrastructure appears in real capital-markets events, such as stablecoin settlement using RLUSD on the XRP Ledger, the immediate value still tends to accrue to the rails, the issuer, or the company before it accrues to XRP itself. The precedent from public crypto companies is that the market prices the business and the token separately, and a listing that rewards the equity does not automatically reward the associated token.
A Ripple IPO would most likely follow the same script, with the stock absorbing the value of the business while XRP continues to trade on its own drivers. That does not make the IPO irrelevant. It makes it indirect. The market would finally have a clean way to buy Ripple, and that could clarify how much demand for XRP was really token demand versus company-proxy demand all along.
What a realistic IPO scenario looks like for XRP It helps to walk through how an actual Ripple listing would probably play out for the token, stage by stage, because the timeline reveals where the modest effects concentrate. In the announcement phase, when Ripple confirms an S-1 or a date, expect a sentiment spike: headlines, community excitement, and a short-term bid in XRP as traders position for the event. This is the sentiment channel firing, and it could produce a sharp but shallow move that fades as the news is absorbed.
In the run-up to the listing, attention would build, and XRP could trade with elevated volatility as speculation swings between the “IPO lifts XRP” and “IPO competes with XRP” theses. Some capital that had been using XRP as a Ripple proxy might already begin rotating toward the anticipated equity, capping the token’s upside even amid the excitement. The listing itself would be an equity event: shares price, the stock trades, and the value of Ripple’s business gets marked by the market. XRP would react mostly to the tone, a strong debut lifting sentiment, a weak one dampening it, rather than to any mechanical flow.
In the aftermath, the durable question resurfaces: does anything about a public Ripple change token demand or supply? If a cash-rich Ripple eases its XRP selling, that supply relief could support the token over time, the most concrete lasting benefit. If investors conclude the stock is the better Ripple bet, capital could keep rotating out of XRP into shares. The realistic net is a sentiment-driven spike around the event that mostly fades, a possible modest supply-side benefit if Ripple sells less XRP, and an ongoing competitive pull from the equity.
That is a meaningful corporate story with a muted and two-sided token effect, which is a long way from the moonshot the community pictures. The IPO could matter. It just would not erase the legal separation between the company and the token. XRP would still need its own demand engine.
Frequently asked questions Does owning XRP give you a stake in Ripple? No. XRP is a digital token that trades on public exchanges and confers no ownership of Ripple Labs, no shares, no dividends, and no claim on the company’s profits. Ripple the company and XRP the token are legally separate. A Ripple IPO would sell shares in the business, and holding XRP would give you no automatic right to those shares or their gains.
Has Ripple actually filed to go public? Not as of late June 2026. Ripple remains private with no S-1 on file and no confirmed date, and executives have repeatedly downplayed the urgency of a listing. The speculation is driven by signals such as a $750 million share buyback that fixed the valuation near $50 billion and a surge in private secondary shares to about $136.90, not by an official filing. That distinction matters because IPO speculation can move sentiment long before any legal filing exists.
Could a Ripple IPO raise the XRP price? It could, through weak and indirect channels. A listing could lift XRP on sentiment, could ease sell pressure if a cash-rich public Ripple relies less on XRP sales, and could add legitimacy to the ecosystem. None of these is a mechanical guarantee, and the evidence so far shows only faint transmission from Ripple’s rising valuation to the token. The stronger catalysts are still regulatory clarity, ETF flows, and actual XRP settlement usage.
How could an IPO hurt XRP? By offering a substitute. An IPO would let investors who want Ripple exposure buy the stock, which actually owns the business, instead of the token, which does not. Some speculative capital that flowed into XRP as a Ripple proxy could rotate into the equity once it exists, redirecting demand away from the token rather than toward it. That is why a Ripple IPO is not automatically bullish for XRP.
What is the value-accrual problem? It is the gap between Ripple’s success and XRP’s value. Many Ripple partners use its software without touching XRP, and much of its revenue does not route through the token. So Ripple can prosper as a company while XRP stagnates, because the token’s value depends on settlement usage and its own demand, not on Ripple’s profit and loss. This is why an IPO is not a guaranteed catalyst.
Did XRP move when Ripple’s private valuation rose? Briefly and weakly. When Ripple’s secondary shares surged to about $136.90, one analysis linked it to XRP re-coupling with the valuation on sentiment. But XRP still trades near $1, down about 26% on the year, so a large rise in Ripple’s private-share price did not drag the token durably higher. That points to weak transmission between the two.
What actually drives the XRP price? The strongest drivers are regulatory clarity on XRP’s status, sustained ETF inflows into the seven spot XRP funds, real settlement usage against the escrow supply, and the direction of Bitcoin and the broader market. These change token demand or supply directly. A Ripple IPO sits at the edge of that list, a modest and two-sided factor instead of a primary catalyst. The event may affect attention, but attention is not the same as recurring demand.
Would Ripple sell more or less XRP after an IPO? Possibly less, which would be the most concrete bullish channel. A listing would raise cash and give Ripple a public stock to fund operations and deals, potentially reducing its need to sell XRP from escrow. The offsetting risk is that going public brings heavier disclosure of the escrow and token sales, which could reassure or unsettle the market depending on what it reveals. The direction depends on what the filings show and whether Ripple actually changes its sell behavior.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and corporate plans such as an IPO are speculative and can change. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Figures are accurate as of July 1, 2026, and will change.
