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Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD dips to $59.00 amid high yields, geopolitical tensions

EUR/USD continental collision: 7th-order institutional demand slab meets -23.0° downward rail at 1.1190

TL;DR: Gold fell to 4,066.21 before recovering toward 4,120, and while the near-term bias stays bearish below 4,227.85–4,245.68, fading downside momentum, a stalling 10-year yield near 5.3%, and a rising Gold/Silver ratio suggest a break below 4,000 may struggle to extend much past the 3,937–3,942 support cluster.

Why This Matters Gold’s selloff is approaching a potentially important test below 4,000. The metal fell to 4,066.21 on Wednesday before recovering toward 4,120, while the near-term bias remains bearish below the 4,227.85–4,245.68 resistance zone.

But the setup is becoming less one-sided. The US 10-year yield has started to meet strong demand around 5.3% and is approaching a major resistance area of its own, raising the possibility of a corrective pullback in yields. At the same time, the Gold/Silver ratio is turning higher, suggesting that selling pressure within precious metals is increasingly shifting toward Silver rather than Gold.

Neither development is enough to call a Gold bottom. But together with fading downside momentum on Gold’s 4-hour chart, they raise the possibility that a break below 4,000 may prove harder to extend than the headline level suggests. The real technical test lies slightly lower at 3,937–3,942, where the current decline reaches a major projection target and the July low.

Real Yields Remain the Main Macro Headwind The US 10-year yield’s recent surge toward 5.36% has therefore been more important for Gold than the inflation-hedge narrative.

Fed officials still see inflation risks tilted to the upside, with higher energy costs, AI-related investment and potential further tariff increases all identified as possible sources of persistent price pressure. Most participants nevertheless left the timing of the next hike open, saying another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end rather than committing specifically to October.

That leaves Gold sensitive not only to Fed expectations but also to what happens at the long end. The 10-year yield has started to meet stronger buying demand around 5.3%, while technically approaching a major 5.413–5.420% resistance cluster. If the yield begins a deeper retreat toward 5.04% or 4.92%, one of Gold’s strongest macro headwinds would ease.

The opposite remains equally important. A decisive break above 5.420% would argue that the yield surge still has further to run, keeping downward pressure on non-yielding Gold.

Dollar Strength Is the Second Gatekeeper A pullback in Treasury yields alone may not be enough to trigger a durable Gold rebound.

The Dollar remains near an 18-month high, supported partly by continued Euro weakness. That leaves Gold facing two simultaneous headwinds: elevated real yields and a firm Dollar.

The distinction matters for any recovery scenario: lower yields alone could slow or stop the decline in Gold, while lower yields combined with a weaker Dollar would provide a much stronger foundation for a rebound. As long as Dollar strength persists, Gold may continue to struggle even if the Treasury market begins to stabilize.

Gold/Silver Ratio Shows Pressure Is Shifting Toward Silver The Gold/Silver ratio provides another sign that the character of the precious-metals selloff may be changing.

The ratio has risen to around 69.48, pushing above the previous 69.06 area after its latest pullback held around 67.18. The 55-day EMA near 67.32 also held, while the ratio has moved above the 68.63 resistance area.

A sustained daily close above 68.63 would strengthen the case that the pullback from 72.554 has ended and put that high back into focus. The near-term bullish ratio structure remains intact while 67.18 holds.

That doesn’t provide a direct Gold buy signal. It instead suggests that selling pressure is increasingly concentrated in Silver, which could help explain why Gold’s downside momentum is beginning to fade even though the broader metals backdrop remains weak.

ActionForex’s Technical View: 3,937–3,942 Is the Real Decision Zone Technically, Gold’s decline from 4,697.07 can be treated as a corrective three-wave structure. The first leg fell to 4,234.68, followed by a rebound to 4,399.58. The current decline forms the third leg, with the 100% equality projection at 3,937.19.

That projection almost exactly overlaps the 3,942.43 July low, creating a narrow and technically significant support cluster at 3,937–3,942. This is more meaningful than the psychological 4,000 level itself—a move below 4,000 would not automatically signal an acceleration in the broader downtrend if Gold stabilizes around the 3,937–3,942 cluster.

Momentum is also beginning to warn that the decline may be entering a late stage. On the 4-hour chart, Gold has made lower lows while MACD has made higher lows, producing bullish divergence. That indicates fading downside momentum, although it does not yet confirm that a bottom has formed.

4,227–4,246 Still Keeps Bears in Control The immediate technical bias remains bearish while Gold stays below 4,227.85–4,245.68. The first obstacle on any rebound is the 4-hour 55 EMA near 4,171.58, followed by the descending trendline—but clearing those levels would only improve short-term momentum.

A sustained break above 4,245.68 would provide the first stronger indication that the current C-wave decline may have completed. Above there, 4,399.58 becomes the critical invalidation level for the present bearish count. Until those levels are reclaimed, rebounds should still be treated as corrective.

Below 3,937 Would Change the Story The potential exhaustion zone around 3,937–3,942 only matters if it actually holds. If Gold falls into that region, loses downside momentum and then recovers above 4,245.68, the case for completion of the C-wave would strengthen considerably.

But a sustained break below 3,937.19, together with a failure of the 3,942.43 July low, would instead indicate that the current decline is extending. A sustained break of 3,942.43 would also signal resumption of the broader decline from the 5,598.75 record high.

For now, Gold remains under pressure from real yields and the Dollar. But with downside momentum fading and a major technical cluster approaching just below 4,000, the selloff is entering an area where the balance between continuation and exhaustion could change quickly.

The key question is not simply whether Gold can break 4,000. It is whether the decline can still generate enough momentum to break through 3,937–3,942 once it gets there.

Key Takeaways Gold fell to 4,066.21 before recovering toward 4,120, with the near-term bias staying bearish below the 4,227.85–4,245.68 resistance zone. Rising real yields and dollar strength remain Gold’s two main headwinds, but the 10-year yield meeting demand near 5.3% and approaching its own 5.413–5.420% resistance raises the chance of a corrective pullback in yields. The Gold/Silver ratio’s rise above 68.63 suggests selling pressure within precious metals is shifting toward Silver, helping explain Gold’s fading downside momentum. The real technical decision zone is 3,937–3,942—not the psychological 4,000 level—where the current decline’s 100% equality projection overlaps the July low. A sustained break below 3,942.43 would signal resumption of the broader decline from the 5,598.75 record high, while a reclaim of 4,245.68 would strengthen the case that the C-wave decline has completed.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: 20-day EMA provides cushion near 157.55

Euro: Downside risks persist toward 1.1140 against US Dollar - UOB

The Pound-Dollar could rebound if Bank of England policymakers turn more hawkish, while softer US jobless claims may limit support for the Dollar. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate retreated in mid-week trade as a bearish market mood underpinned demand for safe-haven assets like the 'Greenback'.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3227. Down roughly 0.4% from Wednesday’s opening levels.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.320999 (-0.43%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.119145 (-0.55%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.08577 (-0.14%)

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) caught fresh bids on Wednesday as a more cautious mood underpinned demand for the safe-haven currency.

Sentiment deteriorated amid a fresh rise in oil prices, with Brent crude climbing back above $100 a barrel amid renewed concerns over global energy supplies following escalating tensions in the Middle East and a storm threatening US production.

Investors also erred on the side of caution as they awaited the publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting.

The minutes could offer important insight into the debate among policymakers over the future path of interest rates, particularly given the more cautious tone adopted by several officials following recent weaker-than-expected inflation and employment data.

Any indication that policymakers remain concerned about persistent price pressures could revive expectations for further tightening and provide additional support for USD.

The Pound (GBP) was subdued on Wednesday as a lull in notable UK economic data left the currency exposed to trends in the UK bond market.

A gentle upward drift in sovereign borrowing costs added a modest headwind for Sterling. Escalating gilt yields revived concerns over the UK's strained public balance sheet, threatening to shrink Chancellor John Healey's already tight fiscal buffer just weeks before the Autumn Budget.

Even so, deeper losses were held in check as GBP investors continued to price in an increased likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) lifting interest rates at its November meeting.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Trump-Xi Meeting in the Spotlight As we head into the second half of the week, we are likely to see the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate take direction from a series of speeches by BoE policymakers

The lineup features Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members Megan Greene and Huw Pill -both of whom broke ranks to vote for a 25-basis-point rate increase last month - alongside Governor Andrew Bailey.

Should Bailey align his rhetoric with the hawkish camp and warn that persistent price pressures warrant a hike next month, Sterling is likely to rally.

Meanwhile, the latest initial jobless claims data from the US could apply some modest pressure to the US Dollar on Thursday if unemployment claims ticked higher last week.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, June 16, 2026. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

SummaryFed policymakers divided over rate-hike logic in Sept: minutesIMF chief warns energy shock, debt and AI risks threaten growthPlatinum gains more than 2%Oct 8 (Reuters) - Gold prices climbed on Thursday as the dollar eased from an ‌18-month peak, helping bullion recover from a two-month low, while traders weighed the prospect of another US Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,141.09 per ounce by ​0140 GMT. On Wednesday, bullion prices touched their lowest level since August 5 ​as a firmer dollar and higher US Treasury yields weighed on ⁠the market.

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US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.6% to $4,165.10.

The pullback in dollar ​makes greenback-denominated gold less expensive for holders of other currencies.

"The short-term investment case for ​gold remains challenged... We would need to see a break above $4,275 to become more constructive on the near-term upside," said Chris Weston, head of research, Pepperstone.

"If markets begin treating rising long-end yields ​as a reflection of sovereign credit and fiscal risk rather than stronger economic ​fundamentals, gold could start to diverge positively from bond yields and the debasement trade could return ‌with ⁠greater force."

Fed policymakers were divided last month over the rationale for raising interest rates, with "some participants" seeing a hike as needed to keep the impact of energy and other price shocks at bay, but a more hawkish core viewing it as ​necessary to guard against ​emerging demand-driven inflation, minutes ⁠showed.

Traders see only an 18% chance of a rate hike later this month, but are pricing in an 80% likelihood ​of an increase in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Higher ​rates diminish ⁠the appeal of non-yielding gold.

The global economy is under threat from persistently high energy prices, record public debt and risks from the AI investment boom, International Monetary Fund Managing ⁠Director Kristalina ​Georgieva warned, urging governments to implement protective fiscal ​and monetary policy measures.

Among other metals, spot silver steadied at $60.18, platinum added 2.1% to $1,665.00 and palladium climbed ​1.6% to $1,142.86.

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Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Sherry Jacob-Phillips

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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds to near $60.50 despite soaring bond yields

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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD cracks $60 as bears eye $56

Gold slides below $4,100 as FOMC Minutes signal further Fed hikes

Gold Tests New Lows As Dollar Climbs Towards Yearly Highs

Gold 071026 Daily Chart Gold is losing ground as traders focus on strong dollar and react to the sell-off in global debt markets.

U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies amid rising demand for safe-haven assets. Traders are worried about the sell-off in European debt markets. The yield of French 10-year bonds climbed above the 4.85% level, while the yield of UK’s 10-year bonds tested the 5.50% level. It remains to be seen whether bond markets will calm down in the near term.

Rising yields are bearish for gold that pays no interest. Even more importantly, the sell-off in bond markets may force some investors to raise cash elsewhere, which could put additional pressure on gold and other precious metals.

In the U.S., bond yields pulled back from highs after a successful auction of 10-year Treasuries. The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion bonds at 5.3%, below the market yield at the time of the auction. The auction showed that high yields have started to attract investors. The auction provided some support to the price of gold, which moved away from session lows.

Gold settled below the support level at $4160 – $4180 and made an attempt to settle below the $4100 level. If gold settles below $4100, it will head towards the next support level, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range.

Silver Tests The $60.00 Level As Gold/Silver Ratio Moves Above 68.50

Silver 071026 Daily Chart Silver pulled back as gold/silver ratio climbed above the 68.50 level. If gold/silver ratio manages to settle above 69.00, it will head towards the psychologically important 70.00 level, which will be bearish for silver.

Currently, silver is trying to settle below the $60.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, silver will head towards the next support, which is located in the $56.00 – $57.00 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the upside, a move above the $62.00 level will push silver towards the 50 MA at $64.21. If silver climbs above the 50 MA, it will head towards the resistance level at $65.00 – $66.00.

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Platinum 071026 Daily Chart Platinum failed to settle above the resistance level at $1700 – $1720 and suffered a strong sell-off. Palladium markets were down by -3.8% in today’s trading session, which was bearish for platinum.

From the technical point of view, platinum attempts to settle below the support level at $1600 – $1620. If platinum manages to settle below the $1600 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $1520 – $1540 range. A move below the $1520 level will open the way to the test of the $1450 level.

On the upside, platinum needs to settle above the resistance at $1700 – $1720 to gain sustainable upside momentum in the near term. In this case, platinum will move towards the 50 MA at $1760.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Canadian Dollar buying could fuel a rebound against the US Dollar, but JPMorgan's trading desk doubts the recovery has lasting economic support. JPMorgan's trading desk has spotted a shift towards Canadian Dollar buying, but remains unconvinced that a rebound would develop into sustained strength against the US Dollar.

Its 6 October commentary describes clients selling USD/CAD across all customer categories, a change from the persistent selling of the Canadian currency seen recently.

By Wednesday afternoon, however, USD/CAD had risen to 1.4259, reversing most of Tuesday's decline and leaving the Loonie's recovery looking fragile.

The desk writes: "While positioning has become increasingly stretched and leaves room for a squeeze lower in USDCAD, I still struggle to find a compelling fundamental catalyst for sustained CAD outperformance."

When investors have accumulated bets against the Canadian Dollar, even a modest improvement in sentiment can prompt them to buy it back to close those positions.

That buying can push USD/CAD lower without a corresponding improvement in Canada's growth prospects or expected investment returns.

The breadth of the change across JPMorgan's clients makes it worth watching, although these are the desk's own flows rather than evidence that the whole market has changed direction.

Oil price support is beginning to fade JPMorgan writes: "With oil gradually pulling back from its highs and traffic through the Middle East normalising somewhat, some of the recent support for the loonie is starting to fade."

For an energy exporter such as Canada, higher oil prices can improve export revenues and support the currency.

An easing of the supply disruption can therefore have mixed consequences for the Loonie, helping global confidence while reducing the energy-price advantage enjoyed by Canadian producers.

The desk consequently still sees USD/CAD risks tilted upwards, even while allowing for a temporary fall as crowded positions unwind.

That caution offers a nearer-term counterpoint to the sustained recovery envisaged in our coverage of Crédit Agricole's Canadian Dollar outlook, where eventual relief from US rates supports the currency further ahead.

Canada's recovery still needs to withstand trade pressures In its September policy decision, the Bank of Canada described a broadening economic recovery, with stronger consumption and gains in exports and business investment.

But it also warned that new US tariffs and threats of further action put the sustainability of that recovery at risk, while subdued labour demand pointed to spare capacity in the economy.

The central bank held its policy rate at 2.25%, balancing a more uncertain growth outlook against the danger that elevated energy costs would spread into other prices.

For the currency, stronger Canadian activity would offer a firmer basis for fresh investment than the closing of existing bearish bets.

The Bank of Canada's next decision and updated economic projections on 28 October will assess whether the rebound is holding up as those trade risks feed through.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Pair consolidates below key moving averages

EUR/USD Talking Points:
The US Dollar is overbought and EUR/USD is oversold, and while those markers don’t demand definite reversal, it does raise the stakes for continuation.
So far, buyers have only been able to pose a minor bounce and as looked at in the webinar yesterday, there’s not yet evidence that there’s enough motivation to produce a reversal move.
I looked into this coming into the week, highlighting EUR/USD in the top five charts for the week ahead, and that theme remains of interest as the pair has pushed down to a fresh yearly low.

In yesterday’s webinar, there was a bounce in-play but as I said then, there wasn’t yet enough evidence to substantiate whether that bounce was just an oversold pullback or the start of something larger. At this stage, it seems it was more of the former than the latter, but there’s still potential given that price hasn’t yet taken out the Monday low.

For that to work and for a bounce to set up in the back-half of the week, bulls will need to show up and hold the low above 1.1161, which, so far, they have by 3.4 pips.

EUR/USD 30-Minute Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/USD Most Oversold in a Decade
As I often say in webinars, RSI isn’t a great timing indicator as a market can often get more oversold or overbought. And any oscillator, RSI included, is a lagging indicator on an already lagging variable (price), so it’s a bit like looking at the world through rose-colored glasses.

This isn’t to say that the indicator is completely worthless, however, as it can provide some good information. And perhaps more important than using it to get into trades is using it to stay out of markets in an extreme state of stress.

At a close below 20 last week, EUR/USD was more oversold than it had been since 2015. That prior instance was an extreme period of stress, but the sub-20 RSI read showed around a significant low, after which the pair was rangebound for much of the next two years.

EUR/USD Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/USD with Perspective
The daily chart highlights the theme well and RSI remains in oversold territory. But, given the prior element of divergence with the Monday low in price producing a higher-low via RSI, it illustrates just how stretched the move has become.

This is a deduction, however, and not quite a thesis that builds into a bullish backdrop: It simply sets the stage for which buyers can make a move and, at this point it’s still quite early to forecast a trend change.

There is, however, the possibility for reversal strategies if (and it’s a big ‘if’) that low can hold on the above shorter-term chart.

EUR/USD Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Gold: Dip buying case builds into 2027 – TD Securities

A stronger dollar, a rally in Treasury yields and oil’s reluctance to fall are creating headwinds for gold. Central banks are taking advantage of gold’s dip to boost their reserves. Gold has been unable to recover following a disappointing September, when the price fell by 6% against the backdrop of a Fed rate hike, a strengthening US dollar and a surge in long-term Treasury yields to 24-year highs. Other factors weighing on gold include oil’s stubborn refusal to fall, despite reports of a resumption of exports from the Middle East.

High energy prices suggest that inflationary pressures remain, forcing the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, which works against gold. The resumption of attacks by Iran on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and by Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure has pushed the price of Brent back above $100 per barrel, triggering another wave of sell-offs in risky assets across the markets. According to Kpler, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from 91% to 74% of pre-war levels.

This is all the more so as investors remain uncertain whether the Fed will tighten policy in October or postpone the move until December. CME futures put the probability of a rate rise in three weeks at 22% for October and 85% for December; however, FOMC officials are expressing conflicting views. Consequently, investors are playing it safe ahead of the publication of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, hoping for clarification on the central bank’s stance.

While everyone is selling, a great opportunity to buy is emerging. In September, China increased its gold reserves by a further 740,000 ounces, marking the 23rd consecutive month of accumulation. Meanwhile, according to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), central bank activity, coupled with mounting fiscal challenges and persistently high geopolitical risks, will drive gold prices to $5,013 per ounce within 12 months.

The LBMA noted that the energy crisis, persistent inflation, and rising bond yields to 24-year highs are creating a strong headwind for precious metals. The fact that the price of an ounce of gold has remained above $4,000 so far is evidence of strong demand for the physical asset.

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Gold keeps struggling against the tide

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Gold price support is under test after a 12.6% slide from the August high, as rising Treasury yields add fresh pressure on the precious metal. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through gold's weekly, daily and four-hour charts and the opening ranges that frame its next breakout. Gold's key support sits where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance off the yearly low meets a trendline in place since 2024. The weekly opening range above that zone sets the breakout trigger, while climbing Treasury yields and upcoming Federal Reserve minutes shape the macro backdrop.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Active Short-term Technical Video Updates
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

Silver continues to test support as rates rise. This is a market that will continue to suffer as long as rates are elevated, something that seems to be a fact of life at the moment.

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GBPUSD fell toward 1.3180 as market support remains at 1.3140-60. As long as the market holds above the support zone of 1.3140-60, a rebound towards the 1.3350-1.3400 zone is likely.