Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The British currency has also been grappling with services inflation pressures and slower growth rates that the Bank of England has had to consider. Domestic budget spending and employment developments are crucial to the performance of the pound along with relative policy settings that can affect cross-rates with the U.S. and Europe.

Other factors, such as differential inflation paths, fiscal policies, economic growth levels, trade balances, and capital flows, can continue to drive currency valuations. As central banks respond to inflation pressures, their approaches will shape future developments in the FX markets. For now, the FOMC minutes released today, along with the upcoming data, provide additional market intelligence and could be a determining factor in shaping the trend that currencies are expected to move over the short term.

DXY Holds $100.85 – Fibonacci 0.618 Retest on 1D

Silver price (XAG/USD) is up over 1% to near $59.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure despite multiple tailwinds.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 100.80.

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.24%-0.28%-0.18%-0.10%-0.18%-0.58%-0.33%EUR0.24%-0.04%0.04%0.13%0.09%-0.31%-0.09%GBP0.28%0.04%0.07%0.17%0.12%-0.27%-0.04%JPY0.18%-0.04%-0.07%0.07%0.05%-0.38%-0.13%CAD0.10%-0.13%-0.17%-0.07%-0.04%-0.44%-0.21%AUD0.18%-0.09%-0.12%-0.05%0.04%-0.39%-0.17%NZD0.58%0.31%0.27%0.38%0.44%0.39%0.23%CHF0.33%0.09%0.04%0.13%0.21%0.17%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.

The US Dollar struggles to get support despite renewed high United States (US) inflation concerns amid the restart of the war in the Middle East.

Rising oil prices due to the exchange of attacks between the US and Iran, and strikes on Iranian infrastructure have refreshed global upside inflation risks.

In the FOMC minutes of the June policy meeting, released on Wednesday, the bottom line was that policymakers see inflation as dominant risk and favored monetary tightening moving ahead.

Going forward, the next major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Tuesday.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades higher at around $59; however, it retains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $62.38. The downside tilt is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 37, which stays below the neutral 50 line but above oversold territory, suggesting persistent selling pressure without capitulation.

On the topside, initial resistance is the round-level of $60.00, followed by the 20-day EMA at $62.38. Looking down, the Silver price could enter a fresh downside leg if it declines below the June 24 low at $55.63.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

BNY Mellon’s Geoff Yu notes that reduced Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations are not undermining the British Pound (GBP). He argues that BoE flexibility around its mandate and reluctance to overreact to supply shocks is not hurting GBP, with consistent domestic Gilt demand and positive real rates offset by international concerns about United Kingdom (UK) growth and politics.

Rate repricing leaves Pound resilient"In the U.K. and GBP’s case, whether rates are the dominant driver is questionable, given the volume of political noise still weighing on the economy. Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey has credited market rate moves with “doing the tightening for the BOE” and appears clearly skeptical of using further hikes to address a supply shock."

"Compared with the ECB, we believe the BOE’s flexibility around its price stability mandate is a deliberate choice that isn’t currently damaging the currency."

"The Monetary Policy Committee can’t fix the U.K.’s structural issues, but it can avoid making them worse. Asset allocation to the U.K.’s equity market differs greatly from the Eurozone due to global exposures."

"Energy-driven supply shocks could even prove beneficial to GBP on the margins. Gilt yields also matter, but our flow data show that domestic purchases have been highly consistent due to positive real rates."

"It’s the international component that’s currently limiting GBP’s potential, mostly due to concerns over potential growth and politics."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged lower on Wednesday as renewed tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3350, having rebounded from an earlier low of $1.3322 but remaining modestly lower on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.337215 (+0.20%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.140248 (+0.02%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.64579 (+0.18%)

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) ticked higher on Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate.

Following attacks on shipping vessels in the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week, the US launched retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Tehran also directed attacks at US allies in the region.

Amid these latest clashes, US President Donald Trump said that he considers the memorandum of understanding with Iran ‘over’. However, he also indicated that negotiations could continue.

While an anxious mood prevailed, thereby providing the safe-haven US Dollar with support, lingering hopes that the two sides could continue to pursue peace limited risk aversion.

Meanwhile, the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound (GBP) struggled amid the souring market mood, although losses were limited as investors remained hopeful that the latest tit-for-tat strikes between Washington and Tehran were just a bump in the road.

In addition, the recent fading of political risk in the UK continued to underpin Sterling.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Minutes in Focus Looking forward, the Federal Reserve will publish its June meeting minutes on Wednesday evening, with USD investors eager for any hints from policymakers about the likelihood and potential timing of interest rate hikes.

If Fed officials struck a broadly hawkish tone at last month’s meeting, the ‘Greenback’ could enjoy support.

On Thursday, the attention shifts to the latest US initial jobless claims figure. A forecast rise in unemployment claims could dent USD.

As for the Pound, nominations for the Labour leadership open on Thursday. If frontrunner Andy Burnham looks likely to be the only one standing, Sterling could enjoy support.

Finally, risk appetite may remain a key factor for GBP/USD, with events in the Middle East potentially driving volatility.

The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3405 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Fading political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK) provides some support to the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD).

Following the resignation of Keir Starmer in late June, UK political risk has eased significantly. The formal race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer begins on July 9. Frontrunner Andy Burnham is widely expected to become Prime Minister by July 20.

Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as price sits above the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The pair is pressing the upper half of the recent range, with the Bollinger Bands (20, 2) still widening modestly, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 57.6 suggests constructive but not overextended upside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band at 1.3470, where buyers could hesitate. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the Bollinger middle band near 1.3300, while a deeper pullback would likely be contained by the Bollinger lower band around 1.3130.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD momentum has flattened, with the Euro expected to trade between 1.1395 and 1.1440 intraday. Over 1–3 weeks, the pair is seen in a broader 1.1360–1.1450 range-trading phase. On a 1–3 month view, a break of the 1.1390/1.1410 support zone would target 1.1210.

Euro-Dollar locked in range phase"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR fell to a low of 1.1407 on Tuesday. Yesterday, we highlighted the following: “Despite the relatively sharp decline, downward momentum has not increased much. However, there is scope for EUR to dip below 1.1390. The major support at 1.1360 is unlikely to come into view. Resistance is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1430 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased.” EUR subsequently declined and printed a low of 1.1390 before recovering to close largely unchanged at 1.1414 (+0.03%). Momentum indicators are turning flat, and today, we expect range-trading, most likely between 1.1395 and 1.1440."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Friday (03 Jul, spot at 1.1430), we highlighted that “the bias for EUR is tilted to the upside.” After EUR fell sharply two days ago, we highlighted yesterday (08 Jul, spot at 1.1405) that “upward momentum has largely faded, and EUR has likely moved back into a rangetrading phase, and we expect it to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450 for now.” There is no change in our view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold – Chart Gold Spot is currently positioned at $4,075 on the 2H chart. Following a defensive move off the triple bottom support near $3,959, a mixed group of green and red candles pushed to the edge of the symmetrical triangle resistance near $4,091. Bullish wicks combined with higher lows indicate demand is holding support. RSI remains around 44, showing a neutral bias.

Volume profile shows a strong accumulation region from $4,000 through $4,091. The 50 EMA (50-period Exponential Moving Average) sits just overhead near $4,103. Chart structure continues neutral-to-bullish on the breakout attempt from the symmetrical triangle at $4,091 in the down channel context from the $4,597 highs. Fibonacci confluence supports a short term bottom formation as a higher lows set up continues to develop.

Trade Idea: Buy $4,075 for $4,140, stop $4,091.

Silver Spot Holds $58.27 – Fibonacci 0.236 Defense on 2h

Hello traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of  GOLD commodity  published in members area of the website. As our members know, GOLD is shoing incomplete bearish sequences in the daily cycle and we have been calling for a decline in the commodity. As expected, the correction unfolded in a clear three-wave structure before sellers stepped back in. In this discussion, we will break down the Elliott Wave forecast.

GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour  Chart 07.03.2026 The current view suggests that GOLD is forming a recovery against the 4385.35 peak. The price structure indicates that another short-term high could still develop to complete the correction before the next leg lower begins.

The 4385.35 level remains the key pivot, and as long as the price stays below this area, the proposed bearish view remains valid.

Did you know ?  90% of traders fail because they don’t understand market patterns. Are you in the top 10%? Test yourself with this advanced Elliott Wave Test

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour  Chart 07.03.2026 The commodity has reached another short-term high and completed the wave (B) recovery at the 4201 peak. From there, the price has started to show signs of weakness. As long as the commodity remains below this key resistance level, we expect the downside pressure to persist and would like to see further weakness before a larger recovery can take place.

A break below the wave (B) blue low would provide additional confirmation that the bearish sequence is unfolding and that the next leg lower is underway.

Keep in mind that the market is dynamic, and the proposed view may have changed in the meantime. Our member chat rooms are open 24/7 and provide ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members are encouraged to ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time

Elliott Wave Forecasthttps://elliottwave-forecast.com

ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.

British Pound strengthens to near 1.3400 as UK political risk fadesThe GBP/USD pair gathers strength near 1.3395 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, bolstered by fading domestic political uncertainty. However, hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and renewed tensions between the US and Iran might support the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the major pair.

Following the resignation of Keir Starmer in late June, UK political risk has eased significantly, lifting the Cable. The formal race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer begins on July 9. Frontrunner Andy Burnham is widely expected to become Prime Minister by July 20. Read more...

British Pound Sterling wins the day and stays stuck in the same trapGBP/USD trades just below 1.3400 on Wednesday, up around a quarter of a percent and once again leaning on the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) that has repelled every advance since the pair clawed back from its mid-June washout. Cable has recovered roughly two big figures from the 1.3150 area in under two weeks, and the reward for the effort is a ceiling it cannot break and a floor it refuses to leave.

The Pound's bid is not homegrown: Fresh US strikes on Iran sent Crude Oil surging more than 6% and dragged Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations up with it. Markets now fully price a 25-basis-point hike by year-end, up from roughly three-quarters odds before President Trump declared the Versailles ceasefire over, and a November move trades better than even. The June hold at 3.75% already carried two dissenters voting for 4.00%, so the hawkish bloc only needs the energy shock to persist, and the Strait of Hormuz is supplying persistence daily. Read more...

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 491.16 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 492.03 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,728.56 per tola from SAR 5,738.97 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

491.16

10 Grams

4,911.40

Tola

5,728.56

Troy Ounce

15,276.77

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.62 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid escalating tensions in the Middle East after US President Donald Trump said an interim agreement to end the war with Iran was “over.”

Traders are also on high alert for possible intervention from Japanese officials. “The yen’s current weakness is excessive and fails to reflect the strong fundamentals of the Japanese economy, a misalignment that could prompt major central banks to launch coordinated intervention,” said Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset and overlay at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.

Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which together suggest a constructive bullish bias after the recent pullback. Price also remains comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, while the upper band marks the next upside objective as the pair grinds higher; the Relative Strength Index (14) near 50 keeps momentum neutral, hinting at consolidation rather than exhaustion for now.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day MA at 112.55, followed by the Bollinger midline around 112.42 and then the lower band at 111.15, where buyers would likely defend the broader uptrend. On the other hand, the first upside barrier emerges at the June 16 high of 113.55. The next hurdle is seen at the upper Bollinger band at 113.70, en route to the May 13 high of 114.74.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 532.34 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 534.58 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,209.12 per tola from MYR 6,235.27 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

532.34

10 Grams

5,323.41

Tola

6,209.12

Troy Ounce

16,557.55

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $4,020 area, or a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot in the absence of a notable hawkish shift in the FOMC Minutes and acts as a tailwind for the bullion. However, renewed US-Iran hostilities revive inflation fears and bolster bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase in 2026. This helps limit the downside for the USD and continues to undermine the non-yielding yellow metal.

The Minutes from the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers were divided with regard to the direction of interest rates. The minutes further stated that many participants indicated the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. This comes on top of last Thursday's soft US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and does little to alter Fed hike bets. Fed officials, however, noted that the upside risk to inflation remains elevated and indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2%.

Moreover, traders are still pricing in around a 70% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September. This, along with a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, holds back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets. In the latest development, the US military unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by continuously targeting US military installations and assets across Bahrain and Kuwait. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran was now over.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls, suggesting that any recovery attempt in the Gold price is more likely to be sold into and remain limited. Traders now look forward to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US, which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand. The focus, however, will remain glued to the Middle East saga, which might continue to infuse volatility in global financial markets and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the precious metal.

XAU/USD daily chart

Gold bears have the upper hand below 200-day SMA and within descending channelFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and within a downward parallel channel. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.26, having recovered only modestly from oversold territory. This hints that any rebound would face strong resistance at the channel top near $4,247.94.

A sustained break above the channel barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure, ahead of a more robust barrier at the 200-day SMA around $4,492.08. On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel at $3,811.93 emerges as the next significant support, where bulls would be expected to defend the broader uptrend if the ongoing correction extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

EUR/JPY pares steadies after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 185.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the moving averages, with a nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) moving above a 50-day EMA, suggesting a bullish shift in momentum.

The EUR/JPY cross also sits over the session Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, hinting that buyers retain control as long as these supports are defended.

Daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross is positioned on the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.60, signaling an imminent bullish breakout. It shows that buyers are aggressively pushing the price up, testing a breakout. A decisive close above this line confirms the breakout, typically triggering a sharp rally toward the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the VWAP at 185.28, followed by the nine-day EMA at 185.13 and the 50-day EMA at 184.99. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.05%-0.08%-0.07%-0.04%-0.40%-0.14%EUR0.08%0.03%-0.02%0.01%0.06%-0.29%-0.05%GBP0.05%-0.03%-0.04%-0.02%0.03%-0.32%-0.08%JPY0.08%0.02%0.04%0.00%0.08%-0.30%-0.04%CAD0.07%-0.01%0.02%-0.00%0.06%-0.30%-0.06%AUD0.04%-0.06%-0.03%-0.08%-0.06%-0.35%-0.11%NZD0.40%0.29%0.32%0.30%0.30%0.35%0.24%CHF0.14%0.05%0.08%0.04%0.06%0.11%-0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.8036 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8077 and 6.7978 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

Fresh US strikes reignite Hormuz disruption fears Europe's energy vulnerability back in focus Euro and European cyclicals resume underperforming Bearish wedge points to renewed downside risk Back to pricing energy risk The US has resumed strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect that markets may once again have to price the risk of prolonged disruption to one of the world's most important energy chokepoints.

As Donald Trump declares the memorandum of understanding signed only weeks ago between the US and Iran "over", so too may be the brief respite for the euro, reviving simmering fears over energy security.

While it's too early to know whether the Strait will face prolonged disruption, the prospect alone is enough to remind investors that the region remains far more exposed to Middle Eastern energy shocks than the United States.

Even if higher energy prices increase the odds of another ECB rate hike later this month, the potential hit to growth may prove the more important driver, tilting the balance of risks for the euro and European assets to the downside, as shown in the chart below.

Europe left behind

Source: TradingView

The left-hand panel tracks EUR/USD since the Friday before the initial US strikes on Iran in late February. Alongside it is the performance of Euro Stoxx 600 futures relative to Russell 2000 futures over the same period. The latter were chosen because both are broader, more cyclical equity benchmarks, avoiding the outsized influence that mega-cap tch companies exert on US indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Since the conflict began, the euro has weakened while European equities have generally underperformed comparable US peers. To be sure, geopolitics is far from the only driver behind that divergence, but Europe's greater reliance on imported energy makes it far more vulnerable, impacting economic sentiment and capital flows. 

However, while Trump's declaration that the MOU is "over" has revived geopolitical risk, traders are unlikely to price in the worst case scenario immediately. Throughout the conflict, markets have repeatedly lurched between reports of imminent de-escalation and renewed hostilities, whether from Trump himself or sources familiar with the negotiations.

The prolonged whipsawing may temper any immediate knee-jerk reaction, with trader instead likely to demand clearer evidence that the latest escalation will have a lasting impact on energy supplies and European economy. Rather than a single sharp move, EUR/USD may instead be vulnerable to a gradual grind lower, punctuated by bouts of volatility as markets once again find themselves playing headline hockey.

Technicals and fundamentals align

Source: TradingView

When you zoom out, the price action continues to favour the bears with EUR/USD carving out a series of lower highs and lower lows. It also remains beneath its key medium and longer-term moving averages, all of which are now starting to roll over and carry a negative slope.

And when you zoom in, the price appears to be sitting in what resembles a rising wedge, a pattern typically associated with bearish continuation. Admittedly, the structure isn't the cleanest, but a sustained break beneath wedge support would increase the risk of a retest of the lows set in June, and potentially an extension of the broader bearish trend.

If that scenario were to unfold, the first level to watch is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025 advance at 1.1355, followed by the June 24 swing low at 1.1325. Should that latter level give way, there's not a lot of meaningful technical support to speak of until 1.1200, an area that repeatedly influenced price action following the Liberation Day tariff announcement in April 2025.

On the topside, the pair has repeatedly struggled above 1.1450, with another minor resistance zone sitting around 1.1480. Above there, 1.1500 and 1.1566 are the levels to watch.

The story from the oscillators is one of diminishing downside strength, not building upside momentum. RSI has lifted from oversold territory but, at around 42, remains below the midpoint and looks close to breaking the very shallow uptrend it's been sitting in over recent weeks. MACD has crossed above its signal line, but that merely suggests downside momentum has eased rather than been eradicated altogether. For now, that continues to favour selling into strength.

At the end of June, I outlined the potential for gold to bounce from the $4,000 level. While there was, of course, the obligatory noise around that key support, bulls eventually gained some traction, with gold rising 6.6% from last week's low to Friday's high. Although prices have since pulled back, XAU/USD continues to hold above its recent cycle lows, leaving bulls to ponder whether another leg higher could still unfold.

View related analysis:

Gold Price Rebound? Futures Positioning Signals Support Above 4,000 AUD/USD Outlook 2026: Key Drivers for the Australian Dollar in Q3 FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar, EUR, GBP, JPY | COT Report Crude Oil Finds Support at Its Pre-War Close, Gold Bounces and USD Retreats Why Gold Bulls May Still Have the Upper Hand Gold Finds Support as Oil Rebounds and US Dollar Rally Fades It was encouraging to see WTI crude oil prices also bounce from the support level I highlighted last week. Oil prices had fallen 44% from their post-war spike, printed their smallest bearish weekly candle in more than four months, yet consistently held above their pre-war close with near perfection. Crude oil prices have risen by as much as 13% from last week's low as President Trump once again verbally attacks Iran, making it easy work for bulls after an extended selloff into a key support level.

Gold's price action is more nuanced for bulls, but they may still have a case for a cheeky bounce higher, at least over the near term.

Net-long exposure to the US dollar may be nearing a sentiment extreme, which I outlined again in my weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. Bulls have also lost a little momentum on the US dollar index rally, which is helping gold hold above 4,000 for now.

Source: NYMEX, ICE, IMM, CFTC (COT)

Gold Seasonality Favors Bulls in July and August July tends to offer a slight seasonal advantage for bulls, with data since 2000 showing average and median returns of around 1% and a 56% win rate. Among those bullish Julys, the average gain has been 3.8%. August seasonality is even stronger, with a 64% win rate, average and median returns of around 2%, and an average gain of 4.3% during bullish months.

Source: LSEG

Gold's Daily July Seasonality Points to a Bullish Window Seasonal patterns may not provide a roadmap for the future, but they can highlight tendencies in price action during quieter periods that are not overshadowed by major economic or geopolitical drivers. With volatility seemingly lower for now and markets seeking a fresh catalyst, perhaps seasonality can play out in the weeks ahead. On that note, gold's daily returns during July also show that 8–13 July tend to deliver positive average returns alongside mostly favourable win rates. Extra caution is warranted when interpreting daily seasonality data, but the pattern is at least worth highlighting.

Source: LSEG

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis Daily Chart: Gold Bulls Eye a C-Wave Recovery The daily chart shows that while gold remains in a downtrend, it has staged a countertrend rally. The question now is whether bulls have enough fuel in the tank for another leg higher as part of a potential ABC correction. The 20-day EMA continues to cap prices as resistance and momentum has turned lower, yet Wednesday's wide-legged doji suggests bears may already be losing their grip. The fact that this has occurred above 4,000, while gold has entered a period of the month with a slight bullish seasonal tailwind, adds weight to the case for another move higher over the near term as part of the 'C' wave of an ABC correction.

1-Hour Chart: Volume Still Needs to Confirm the Bounce The 1-hour chart shows Wednesday's low respected last week's volume point of control (VPOC), adding further weight to the case for a potential swing low. That said, volumes during the recent bounce from those lows have declined, suggesting a lack of bullish participation. Bulls may therefore want to remain on guard for a pullback within yesterday's range today.

Source: LSEG

My near-term bias remains bullish while gold holds above the recent swing lows, and with Wednesday's doji forming above 4,000, bulls may be preparing to make their next move. A bullish divergence formed on the daily RSI (14) heading into the swing lows, suggesting the mature bearish trend has been losing momentum. Note that the 200-day and 50-day EMAs sit near the June volume point of control (VPOC), just above the 4,300 handle. A 100% projection of Wave A from the assumed Wave B low lands near the 4,300 handle. With a notable cluster of resistance between 4,300 and 4,340, bears may also be lurking to capitalise on any such bounce with a view to taking gold back below 4,000. View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

The USD/CHF pair recoils after reaching a five-day high of 0.8108 on Wednesday, edging down some 0.02% as risk appetite deteriorates due to US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of an end to the ceasefire, as Iran attacked ships on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8078, following a false breakout above 0.8100.

After forming a ‘morning star’ at the beginning of the week and testing 0.8100, the USD/CHF pair is now retreating below that level. Nevertheless, bullish momentum remains intact, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but shows signs of fading.

For a bullish continuation, USD/CHF needs to clear the high of the day at 0.8108, followed by the July 1 peak at 0.8120. On further strength, the next area of interest would be 0.8200, followed by the June 4, 2025, daily high at 0.8250. Above this level lies 0.8300.

On the flip side, if USD/CHF tumbles below the 0.8000 psychological figure, it could exacerbate a move towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7934 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 0.7915. Below is the 0.7900 figure.

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The new short-term range is $55.60 to $63.28. Inside this range is the $59.44 to $58.53 retracement zone. Holding this zone will indicate that aggressive counter-trend buyers are trying to establish support. If they fail, we’re likely to see a test of the main bottom at $55.60. If they are successful, then buyers will make another run at $63.28. Take out this level and the short-term trend changes to up with the focus shifting to the 200-day moving average at $70.06 and the 50-day moving average at $70.53.

The longer-term picture is all about value. But this is mostly for the silver investor, not the silver trader. Long-term investors see a major value zone at $60.83 to $46.48. It’s a wide range, but that’s what you get when your all-time high is $120.67. The longer-term investor has the time to build a position inside the support zone.

The problem is, he’s playing against the short-term trader. If the short-term trader can establish a new support base like I wrote about earlier, then with the help of the long-term investor, there’s hope for an upside breakout over $63.28.

From both the short-term trader and the long-term investor, the 200-day MA at $70.06 and the 50-day MA at $70.53 could be a problem. Not only are they potential resistance, but also a major barrier to the uptrend. This area has to be cleared to get the institutional bullish traders on the same side as the retail bull and the long-term investor.

The real test is whether all three groups line up. The long-term investor is buying value. The short-term trader is looking for a base. Institutional money needs both of them to clear the moving averages before it commits. Until that happens, Spot Silver consolidates between $55.60 and $63.28.

What to Watch Brent above $79 is the number that matters for Spot Silver right now. The Iran ceasefire is dead, the Strait is getting worse, and every dollar crude adds from here feeds the inflation repricing that crushed the post-payrolls longs on Wednesday. A pullback in oil gives silver room to breathe but the June FOMC minutes already told traders the committee is closer to hiking than cutting. That does not expire with one quiet day in the Persian Gulf.

The $59.44 to $58.53 retracement zone is where the bulls either prove they have real money or give it up. Hold it and $63.28 comes back into play. Lose it and the next stop is $55.60.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Silver prices collapse nearly 2.50% on Wednesday as risk aversion drives traders towards buying the US Dollar, to the detriment of precious metals. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $58.41 after waking at around $61.03.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver is still downward biased, extending the series of successive lower highs and lower lows, besides its trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.19.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearishly biased as the index approaches oversold territory.

For a bearish continuation, if XAG/USD dives below the June 30 daily low of $56.61, this clears the path towards $55.79, the June 26 swing low. Below this level, the next area of interest is the November 13, 2025, daily low-turned-support at $54.39, ahead of the $50.00 figure.

On the upside, buyers must clear the latest cycle high of $63.28, the July 6 high, followed by the June 22 daily peak at $67.17, ahead of the $70.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Chart - Daily

Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Treasury yields moved higher as bond traders bet that rising tensions in the Middle East would trigger inflationary risks. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.22% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.58%. Rising Treasury yields put material pressure on gold that pays no interest.

FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 32.6% chance that Fed would raise rates at the meeting at the end of July. The probability of a first rate hike in September has increased to 51.3%. The hawkish changes in Fed policy outlook may put additional pressure on gold prices in the upcoming trading sessions.

U.S. dollar was swinging between gains and losses against a broad basket of currencies despite rising Treasury yields. Dynamics of the American currency did not have a material impact on gold prices today.

Currently, gold is trying to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the next support, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

Silver Dives Amid Worries About Hawkish Fed

Gold is starting to face difficult trading sessions. Over the last 2 trading sessions, XAU/USD has shown a renewed weakness bias, with a decline of just over 3.00%.

This selling pressure has held as new tensions in the Middle East appear to be reactivating the appeal of relevant substitute assets for gold, such as the bond market and the U.S. dollar. If this dynamic continues, the current selling pressure could become even more relevant in gold price movements over the next few trading sessions.

Is the Middle East becoming a concern again? Although there had been a potential temporary agreement to reduce the conflict in the Middle East and normalize the passage of ships around the Strait of Hormuz, an attack on 3 commercial vessels was recently reported. This event led the United States to launch new military actions against Iran and revoke the permit that allowed Iran to sell oil openly to the global market.

In fact, the renewed tensions have reached a point where comments from President Trump suggested that the ceasefire with Iran was over, making the possibility of reaching formal negotiations even more complicated.

The impact on risk perception has started to become important. Once again, the risk premium around the conflict has increased, while the WTI oil barrel has risen close to 10% over the last 2 sessions. This could be reviving fears of inflationary pressures for 2026 and once again reflecting the possibility of more aggressive central banks to control these additional pressures.

This effect has not been entirely favorable for gold. Although gold is usually considered the safe-haven asset par excellence, the conflict in the Middle East has given more weight, for months, to other substitute safe-haven markets such as bonds and the dollar.

In fact, looking at the recent behavior of the 10-year U.S. bond market, a new increase in interest rates stands out, with yields now approaching the 4.6% area. In addition, the market maintains an aggressive upward slope in the short term, showing greater potential appeal in this substitute market for gold, which appears to be reacting more strongly to the increase in tensions in the Middle East.

Source: TradingEconomics

The increase in the appeal of the bond market could also be generating greater demand for the U.S. dollar. The currency could be benefiting both from international capital inflows into the bond market and from the escalation of the conflict, as the dollar usually acts as a liquidity safe-haven currency during episodes of higher tension in the Middle East.

This renewed demand is already reflected in the recent movements of the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers. Since the new escalation of the conflict and amid solid interest rates in the bond market, the indicator has continued to move above the 101-point area, maintaining a relevant upward slope. This indicates that demand for the U.S. dollar remains important.

Source: TradingEconomics

All of this is crucial for gold, because a more attractive bond market and a stronger dollar can create a difficult scenario for the metal to regain strength. At the moment, gold is not being viewed as a liquidity safe-haven asset as attractive as the dollar, and it also does not pay interest like bonds.

This could be generating a loss of demand, as the market seeks exposure to substitute assets for gold. If the appeal of these markets continues to strengthen due to the reactivation of the conflict in the Middle East, gold could remain in a difficult position to recover ground in the short term. As a result, selling pressure on XAU/USD could remain relevant over the next few trading sessions.

Technical outlook for Gold

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Bearish trend line comes back into play: Despite gold’s recovery attempts in previous weeks, the most relevant technical event on the daily chart continues to be the long bearish trend line that has dominated the market for months. Given the lack of relevant bullish moves, this structure remains the most important dominant pattern to watch. If selling pressure manages to stabilize in the short term, a potential extension of this bearish trend line could remain relevant in the average movements of XAU/USD over the coming trading weeks.
  RSI: Now, the RSI indicator line maintains a bearish slope below the neutral 50 line. This indicates that the average selling impulse of the last 14 sessions remains relevant in the chart’s movements. If this behavior continues, a significant selling bias could remain important over the next trading sessions.
  TRIX: The TRIX indicator line continues to show downward movements below the neutral 0 level. This suggests that the average strength of long-term exponential moving averages remains in bearish territory. For now, this reading shows that, in the broader chart outlook, there is still a relevant selling bias to consider over the next few sessions.
  Key levels to watch:

4,345 USD – Crucial resistance: This level corresponds to relevant highs that align with the major bearish trend line and coincides with the barrier marked by the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements returning to this level could put the current bearish trend line at risk and open room for a more relevant buying bias over the coming weeks.
  4,182 USD – Near-term barrier: This recent neutral zone coincides with important retracements from recent weeks. If price remains too close to this level, a phase of indecision could be reinforced, potentially opening room for a short-term sideways range.
  3,886 USD – Critical support: This level is associated with relevant lows from October 2025 and is considered the next most important bearish barrier. Movements toward this zone could once again highlight a clearer selling bias and extend the bearish trend line as the dominant technical structure over the following weeks.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that the Euro’s relationship with energy prices has evolved, with recent Oil and Gas gains again weighing on EUR/USD. Earlier in the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices hurt the Euro (EUR), but later the pair became more driven by Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. She now sees EUR/USD guided by central bank expectations, yield spreads and Eurozone energy risks.

Euro sensitivity returns to energy moves"At the start of the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices weighed on the euro against the US dollar. During the conflict, however, EUR/USD became less sensitive to energy prices and more sensitive to expectations for the Fed and the ECB."

"When a Memorandum of Understanding was announced, energy prices fell sharply, but the euro gained little against the US dollar because markets were focused on expectations of Fed rate hikes."

"As a result, oil and gas prices rose strongly, supporting the currencies of energy exporters such as the Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar and US dollar. At the same time, currencies of energy importers weakened."

"The euro again declined against the US dollar as energy prices rose."

"Going forward, the direction in EUR/USD will depend on expectations for the Fed and the ECB, inflation expectations, changes in nominal and real yield spreads between the US and Europe, and perceptions of possible energy shortages in the eurozone."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

EUR/USD forecast remains uncertain as renewed US-Iran tensions sends oil higher FOMC minutes coming up but market’s attention is on developments in the Middle East again EUR/USD selling contained relative as it holds inside bear flag Oil returns to the forefront of currency markets The EUR/USD edged only slightly lower, showing surprising resilience for now while European equity markets took the brunt of the sell-off, as tensions in the Middle East made an unwelcome return with renewed intensity. A sharp rebound in crude oil prices has quickly become the dominant market theme again, overshadowing economic data and forcing investors back into defensive positions.

Will tensions de-escalate quicker this time? Well, it is tough to say. Already, Trump has announced they will probably strike Iran again tonight. There will be retaliation from Tehran and things could get quite messy very quickly. Trump’s latest comments certainly don’t point to any de-escalation after he effectively dashed hopes that recent diplomatic progress could continue, reviving concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

Whether events develop into a prolonged confrontation remains uncertain. There is still scope for political rhetoric to soften over the coming days, but for now traders are once again having to price in geopolitical risk. That naturally favours the US dollar while simultaneously weighing on risk-sensitive assets, including European equities and the euro. Europe also relies heavily on energy imports, which makes the euro even more vulnerable.

The prospect of renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz also keeps stagflation risks firmly on investors’ radar. Higher energy prices would complicate the outlook for central banks at a time when many had been preparing for a more benign inflation environment.

EUR/USD forecast: US rates expectations remain supportive for dollar Against this backdrop, the publication of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes may struggle to attract its usual level of attention. Markets already have a fairly clear understanding of the Fed’s position, with policymakers remaining cautious about inflation risks.

If oil prices remain elevated, inflation expectations could become more persistent, giving the Fed more reason to keep policy restrictive for longer, and deliver some rate hikes later this year. That view continues to support US Treasury yields, maintaining one of the dollar’s strongest advantages over its major counterparts. This explains why, despite relatively resilient European economic data, investors have continued to favour the greenback lately.

EUR/USD technical analysis: bear flagging From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD forecast continues to point lower, even if we haven’t seen an immediate drop amid the geopolitical uncertainty yet. But with the pair showing a potential bear flag in the making, the pressure remains.

Source: TradingView.com The 1.1400 area remains an important near-term support level to watch on the daily EUR/USD chart. A decisive break beneath that zone would expose the 1.1300 handle.

On the upside, resistance around 1.1450 continues to cap advances. A sustained move above that level would shift attention towards the psychological 1.1500 mark, with 1.1575 representing the next significant upside objective.

In summary  For the time being, however, the fundamental backdrop offers little justification for a sustained recovery. Unless incoming US economic data begins to weaken convincingly or expectations surrounding Fed policy changes materially, say as a result of significantly weaker oil prices (again, unlikely), the dollar’s combination of higher yields and safe-haven demand is likely to keep rallies in EUR/USD relatively limited. That leaves the broader EUR/USD forecast cautiously bearish over the near term.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Wednesday and trades around $58.45 at the time of writing. The white metal remains under pressure after comments from US President Donald Trump revived concerns about renewed conflict in the Middle East, supporting the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields.

Donald Trump said that the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict with Iran is now "over," adding that he no longer wants to negotiate with Tehran. He also stated on Wednesday that the United States (US) could launch new strikes against Iran as early as tonight, saying a deal is not necessary and raising the possibility of targeting strategic infrastructure, including the country's electricity grid, water treatment facilities and Kharg Island, Iran's main Oil export terminal.

This renewed escalation has increased concerns about disruptions to global Oil supplies, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining at the center of market attention. Higher energy prices are reviving inflation expectations, which could increase the Federal Reserve's (Fed) room to tighten monetary policy and therefore weigh on non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Investors are now turning their attention to the release of the Fed June meeting Minutes, which could provide fresh guidance on the monetary policy outlook. Markets will assess whether policymakers remain willing to cut interest rates despite the risk that higher energy prices could sustain inflationary pressures.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.