ING’s Chris Turner says EUR/USD remains well supported by broad Dollar softness. Expected mild eurozone growth in the August PMIs and elevated inflation expectations keep the case for another European Central Bank (ECB) hike alive. EUR/USD is seen consolidating in the 1.1670-1.1710 range before potentially edging higher, although high natural gas prices remain a risk.
Euro supported by soft Dollar story"EUR/USD remains well supported, and, as above, we favour the kind of benign decline in the dollar that tends to float all boats. Not that anyone is expecting it, but should some true US fiscal consolidation emerge, the combination of tighter fiscal policy and looser monetary policy would be dollar-negative."
"Fiscal consolidation seems unlikely though, with Washington wanting to spread its pro-growth mindset to the entire G20 when finance ministers and central bank governors meet later this month."
"Today's eurozone data calendar focuses on the August PMIs. For the eurozone as a whole, these are expected to indicate a continued mild expansion and one which supports another European Central Bank hike in September. "
"There will also be focus on the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey, where three-year inflation expectations reached 3.0% in March and are expected to remain elevated at 2.8%."
"EUR/USD can consolidate in a tight 1.1670-1.1710 range today, before potentially edging higher."
"With emerging market currencies performing well, we prefer a continued gentle rise in EUR/USD. High natural gas prices remain a concern, but since the eurozone economy seems to be coping with these better now, EUR/USD can focus on the soft dollar story."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
NZDUSD regains confidence The Kiwi took a slight breather after moving over 100 pips higher as the bullish influence remains. A rally towards the mid-0.5900 area has prompted sellers to trim their exposure.
Silver (XAG/USD) rallies for the third consecutive day on Friday, hitting fresh two-month highs above $69.00 in the early European session. The precious metal is on track for a 6.6% weekly rally, as investors run away from the US Dollar following the US Treasury’s announcement of a plan to boost buybacks of long-term securities.
Commerzbank analysts affirm that the US Treasury's plan reveals that “if faced with the choice between accepting higher interest rates or a weaker US dollar, the Treasury would rather see a weak USD.” In their view, this stance adds a structural headwind for the Dollar as investors reassess the balance between rate containment and currency strength.
Technical Analysis: The 200-day SMA, at $72.05, comes into focus
XAG/USD trades firm, at $69.02, holding a bullish structure, with momentum indicators on the daily chart endorsing the upside view. The Relative Strength Index (14) near 65 suggests strong but maturing bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory, hinting that upside attempts could persist.
Bulls are likely to meet some resistance at the $70.00 psychological level, although key resistance lies in the area between the mid-June highs, at $ 71.56, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.05.
On the downside, the previous resistance area around $67.20 (June 22 high) is likely to porvide some support in case of a bearish reversal. Below here, the next targets would be the August 18 low, in the $63.20 area, and the August 5 and 6 lows around $61.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The AUD/USD pair regains positive traction following the previous day's dismal Aussie jobs data-led modest fall and climbs to a fresh high since early June during the first half of the European session. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-0.7100s, up nearly 0.50% for the day, and remain on track to register gains for the seventh week in a row amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.
The US Dollar (USD) languishes near a three-month low, touched on Thursday, amid receding bets for an immediate rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor supporting the AUD/USD pair. Bulls, meanwhile, seem rather unaffected by geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.
From a technical perspective, the latest leg up confirms a fresh breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June decline. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (14) near 67 suggests stretched but still constructive momentum and is backed by a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading above zero. The set-up, in turn, further validates the near-term positive outlook for the AUD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 0.7188, which might cap the advance for now. A sustained move beyond the said hurdle is needed to open the way toward higher recovery targets. On the downside, initial support is located at the 61.8% retracement at 0.7119, ahead of a stronger structural floor formed by the 50.0% retracement at 0.7070 and the nearby 100-day SMA at 0.7069. A break below this cluster would likely trigger a deeper pullback toward the 38.2% level at 0.7021 and the 23.6% retracement at 0.6961, if selling accelerates.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-1.12%-0.91%-0.25%-0.80%-0.81%-1.27%-1.48%EUR1.12%0.36%0.87%0.32%0.27%-0.16%-0.36%GBP0.91%-0.36%0.59%-0.01%-0.09%-0.52%-0.77%JPY0.25%-0.87%-0.59%-0.53%-0.61%-1.03%-1.25%CAD0.80%-0.32%0.01%0.53%-0.07%-0.50%-0.74%AUD0.81%-0.27%0.09%0.61%0.07%-0.43%-0.68%NZD1.27%0.16%0.52%1.03%0.50%0.43%-0.26%CHF1.48%0.36%0.77%1.25%0.74%0.68%0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
On 19 August, the US Treasury announced that it would double the volume of long-term government bond buybacks. The measure led to a noticeable decline in yields at the longer end of the curve and forms part of the Treasury’s broader efforts to contain pressure on long-term borrowing costs. These efforts include market interventions and calls for the Federal Reserve to expand the limits of the FIMA repo facility.
Lower Treasury yields improve the relative appeal of precious metals, which do not generate interest income, providing direct support for silver. Industrial demand is another important factor. Chinese imports of silver-containing ores rose 62.5% year-on-year in June amid expanding production of solar panels and power-grid equipment.
Technical Analysis of Silver
Since 17 July, XAG/USD has been moving within a pronounced uptrend on the four-hour chart. In the upper portion of this advance, a pattern resembling a broadening triangle emerged in mid-August. Unlike a conventional triangle, its boundaries widened rather than converged, reflecting increasing volatility during the consolidation phase.
On 20 August, the price broke above the formation and continued to hold above the current market profile. The breakout candle was accompanied by a noticeable increase in vertical volume compared with the preceding consolidation bars, adding some confirmation to the move.
Following the breakout, silver moved above the profile’s upper boundary at $66.58. If the bullish momentum persists, the next major upside reference is the red resistance level at $69.74.
A return inside the profile would shift attention to the cluster of two important levels: the Point of Control (POC) at $65.165 and the lower profile boundary at $64.345. Their proximity makes this area particularly important for the short-term outlook. If sellers push the price through this cluster, the next potential support could be found around the green level at $62.700.
The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 66, 56 and 56. The oscillator is trading above the neutral zone, while both moving averages remain below its upper boundary and are only beginning to approach a potential breakout.
Key Takeaways The breakout above the broadening triangle on increased volume initially points towards further upside, but maintaining prices above the market profile will require additional confirmation.
The $66.58 level is therefore likely to remain important in the near term: holding above it would favour continuation towards $69.74, while a return below the profile could bring the 65.165–64.345 area back into focus.
The broader outlook will also remain sensitive to the direction of US Treasury yields. A continued decline in yields could provide further support for silver, while a renewed rise in long-term yields could limit the metal’s upside.
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Gold price (XAU/USD) is up 0.65% at around $4,550 during the early European trading session on Friday, the highest level seen in over 11 weeks. The precious metal capitalizes on a weak US Dollar (USD), which has been hit hard, as the Treasury’s decision to double down on long-term debt buybacks has amplified market concerns over escalating borrowing costs and the growing fiscal strain from the government’s ballooning debt.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower at around 98.73. The USD Index is closer to its three-month low of 98.55 posted on Thursday.
A lower US Dollar makes the Gold price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
The announcement of faster US debt-repayment plans led to a sharp plunge in US bond yields and the US Dollar. However, there has been a strong recovery in Treasury yields, but the Greenback continues to face the heat.
Financial markets doubt that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s aggressive bond-buyback plan is enough to contain higher borrowing costs, but seem confident that to be vulnerable for the US Dollar.
US Treasury buybacks seen risking confidence in Dollar assetsAnalysts at MUFG argue that if, as Scott Bessent suggests, policymakers are serious about addressing market concerns, then the US Treasury “could play a key role here by of course addressing the ever-expending fiscal deficit with fiscal consolidation.”
However, they add that “we all know that’s not going to happen,” and warn that the latest buyback announcement, combined with the “FIMA report comment to Japan following intervention,” risks proving “counter-productive” by leading to “reduced appetite for either holding US assets (UST bond sales) or reduced appetite for exposure to the US dollar (dollar selling) or both.” MUFG concludes that “even if the Treasury buy-back plan does contain yields, the US dollar now remains more vulnerable to the downside on the fact that yields are potentially lower.”
Gold’s next move largely relies on Fed’s policy actionsStrategists at GoldSilver Central have said that “Gold's upward trajectory would be determined by what the Federal Reserve (Fed) decides to do next and how those policies impact market rate expectations”, Reuters reports.
This shifts all focus to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is scheduled for August 27-29.
However, history shows that the Fed Chairman is not a fan of delivering so-called “forward guidance” on the monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed is anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the September policy meeting.
Gold Technical Forecast
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at around $4,550, extending its advance well above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,325.64 and reinforcing a bullish near-term bias. The distance between spot and the EMA suggests a strong upside extension rather than a balanced trend, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 68.39 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that bullish momentum remains firm but increasingly stretched.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA around $4,325.64, which should act as the first dynamic floor on any corrective pullback. Looking up, the precious metal could extend its advance towards the May 29 high at $4,595.34.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights EUR/USD at 1.1685 holding recent gains, with intraday trading likely between 1.1655 and 1.1715. Over a 1–3 week horizon, he sees room for further upside toward 1.1725, while warning that a break below 1.1615 would signal that the upward pressure seen since early week has faded.
Uptrend intact with nearby supports"24-HOUR VIEW: Following the sharp rally to 1.1679 two days ago, we highlighted yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1675, that “the rally in EUR has scope to extend.” However, we held the view that “any advance could stay within a 1.1635/1.1700 range.” EUR subsequently rose to 1.1710 before easing to close marginally higher by 0.01% at 1.1678. While upward momentum has slowed somewhat, it is too early to expect a significant pullback. Today, we expect EUR to range-trade, most likely between 1.1655 and 1.1715."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (20 Aug, spot at 1.1675) still stands. As highlighted, “there is room for further upside in EUR toward 1.1725.” On the downside, if EUR breaks below 1.1615 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1600 yesterday), it would indicate that the upward pressure that started early this week has faded. Looking ahead, the significant resistance above 1.1725 is 1.1790."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-Dollar can hold above $1.36 if pressure on the US Dollar from fiscal concerns and softer Fed bets offsets any drag from weaker UK retail sales and PMI data. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate maintained a positive trajectory on Thursday, with the pairing being propelled to its best levels since mid-February.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3646. Up around 0.3% from Thursday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.362643 (+0.20%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.167162 (-0.02%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 159.0647 (+0.51%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure on Thursday, slipping to fresh multi-month lows as concerns over the US fiscal outlook continued to weigh on sentiment towards the ‘Greenback’.
The latest warning sign came as America’s national debt surpassed the $40tn mark for the first time, reinforcing concerns over the sustainability of the country’s finances and the growing cost of servicing its debt.
The milestone came alongside ongoing volatility in the US bond market, where long-term borrowing costs had climbed sharply, forcing the US Treasury to step in and announce it would at least double the size of its planned buybacks of longer-dated government debt.
The Pound (GBP) traded with modest support on Thursday, firming on the back of the Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) latest industrial trends orders index.
The index printed at -25 this month, marking a continued contraction in order books, but a marked improvement from the -45 recorded in July and striking its best levels since late 2024.
The data points to surprising resilience in the UK manufacturing sector, despite headwinds posed by the war in the Middle East and rising energy prices.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK retail sales and PMIs could test Sterling strength Turning to Friday's session, the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may be pressured by the final UK economic releases of the week.
Friday's European session opens with the release of the UK's latest retail sales data, which is forecast to report a contraction in consumer spending and sap Sterling sentiment.
The subsequent publication of the UK's latest PMIs could then drag the Pound even lower, as economists forecast that growth in the UK's dominant services sector is likely to have slowed this month.
Closing out the session will be the publication of the latest US S&P PMIs. While not as influential as the ISM indexes, they could still lend the US Dollar support if they point to further resilience in the US private sector.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Pound-Australian Dollar could struggle to hold gains if UK retail sales and PMI data disappoint, although softer Australian business surveys may limit AUD support.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate appreciated on Thursday in response to a weaker-than-expected Australian jobs report.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.9134. Up around 0.2% from the start of Thursday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.915687 (+0.33%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.362765 (+0.21%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell through Thursday’s Asian trading session after Australia’s latest employment figures pointed to a sharper-than-expected cooling in the labour market.
Australia’s labour market unexpectedly shed 15,800 jobs in July, contrasting with forecasts for an increase of around 15,000. The deterioration was accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, up from 4.4% in June and its highest level since late 2021.
The unexpectedly soft data prompted some AUD investors to adjust their expectations for further monetary tightening from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with another rate hike later in the year now seen more as a lineball call.
While able to edge higher against the Australian Dollar, the Pound (GBP) traded sideways against most of its other peers on Thursday, with GBP investors taking a breather following recent high-tier data.
There's been a mixed response to this week's data so far, with the UK's latest inflation and employment figures failing to shift expectations for a potential interest rate hike from the Bank of England’s (BoE) later in the year.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Weak Retail Sales and PMI Data to Sap Sterling?
Looking ahead, the Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate may come under pressure on Friday, with the final UK economic releases of the week.
Up first is the UK's latest retail sales data, which is expected to report a contraction in consumer spending in July.
This will be followed by August's preliminary PMIs, which could further undermine Sterling if they point to a slowdown in UK private sector activity this month.
In the meantime, Australia's own PMIs could pile more pressure on the 'Aussie' as economists forecast a moderation in Australia's private sector this month.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold – Chart Gold is now $4,543 on the 4 hour chart after a break of the long standing descending trendline and is also trading above the 50 and 100 EMA at $4,406 and $4,325 respectively. The structure is also bullish. The break above $4,446 levels considered a strong level of support for a potential pullback and holds upside momentum for gold with RSI at 68. Resistance is located at $4,595, $4,671, and $4,778. Support levels are $4,447, $4,320, and $4,228.
For the bullish case, holding above $4,447 maintains the overall bullish sentiment for gold. Meanwhile, breaking above $4,595 could open $4,671 and $4,778 for further gains. A breakdown back below $4,447 officialy resets the bullish sentiment and opens the potential for further losses that target $4,320.
TL;DR: Japan’s data is strengthening and Australia’s is weakening, yet AUD/JPY keeps rising — because the cross is trading on the global yield backdrop and carry differential, not on either country’s local fundamentals.
Domestic Data Point Clearly Lower for AUD/JPY AUD/JPY has rebounded strongly even though this week’s data from both sides of the cross argue for the opposite move. Japan delivered firmer inflation and stronger business activity. Australia produced a weak jobs report and softer PMIs. On domestic fundamentals alone, that combination should favor the Yen over the Aussie.
Japan’s July core CPI rose from 1.6% to 1.8% y/y, while core-core CPI accelerated from 1.7% to 1.9% — a broadening that ActionForex covered in detail here, noting firmer services inflation and renewed energy pressure ahead of the BoJ’s September meeting. August PMIs strengthened as well: PMI Manufacturing rose from 54.5 to 55.1, while PMI Services climbed from 51.2 to 52.3 — part of a broader acceleration where overseas demand posted its strongest growth in more than eight-and-a-half years, led by semiconductor and AI-related industries. Those readings reinforce expectations the BoJ could raise rates again at its September meeting.
Australia moved in the opposite direction. Employment fell -15.8K in July, against expectations for an increase, while unemployment rose from 4.4% to 4.5%. August PMI Composite Output then eased from 53.2 to 52.5, while PMI Services Business Activity fell from 53.6 to 52.9. PMI Manufacturing Output slipped from 50.3 to 49.7, moving back into contraction, even as manufacturing orders improved and cost pressures accelerated.
Global Yields Are Overriding Local Fundamentals That AUD/JPY is rising anyway is the more important signal. The cross is currently trading less on Australian and Japanese data than on the global yield backdrop.
The Yen briefly benefited after the US Treasury’s August 19 buyback announcement drove long-dated US yields sharply lower. That compressed yield differentials globally and temporarily reduced pressure on low-yield funding currencies. But the move didn’t last — US yields rebounded quickly on Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield returning toward 4.70% and the 30-year yield moving back above 5.20%. Other major sovereign yields also rose. As carry conditions improved again, the Yen returned to underperformance.
That mechanism matters more for AUD/JPY than the latest local data. When global yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a low-yielding currency such as the Yen increases. Carry demand then tends to favor currencies offering substantially higher policy rates, including the Aussie.
BoJ Hike Bets Are Rising, But the Carry Gap Is Still Wide Japan’s stronger CPI and PMI data still matter because they reinforce September BoJ hike expectations. But even another 25bp increase wouldn’t transform the relative-rate picture.
The RBA cash rate stands at 4.35%, compared with the BoJ policy rate at 1.00% — a gap of roughly 335bp. A BoJ hike to 1.25% would narrow it to around 310bp, still a substantial spread.
That helps explain why the Yen can weaken even as BoJ normalization expectations strengthen. Markets may be becoming more confident that Japan will hike, but the expected adjustment is still small relative to the existing carry advantage. Australia’s softer data could eventually narrow that gap from the other side if markets become convinced the RBA’s tightening bias won’t survive. But this week’s releases haven’t been enough to overpower the global yield move.
ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/JPY Technically, the current rebound supports the view that the correction from 114.91 completed with three waves down to 109.25. That decline held above 108.77, the bottom of wave four of a lesser degree. Support from the 55-day EMA also strengthens the bullish interpretation.
The near-term outlook stays bullish while 112.21 support holds. The next target is the 114.65–114.91 resistance zone.
A decisive break of 114.91 would be much more important. It would confirm resumption of the larger uptrend from 86.03, the 2025 low. The next upside target would then be the 38.2% projection of 86.03 to 114.91 from 109.25, at 120.28, putting the psychological 120 level directly into focus.
A move below 112.21 would delay the bullish case and suggest the correction from 114.91 is still unfolding, with another near-term decline possible before the broader uptrend resumes.
AUD/JPY Is Sending a Global, Not Domestic, Signal The key takeaway isn’t that Australian fundamentals suddenly improved or that Japanese data failed to matter. It’s that both local stories are being overwhelmed by a larger market force. Japan is getting stronger. Australia is getting softer. Yet AUD/JPY is rising because global yields have reasserted the carry advantage over the Yen.
That makes the next move in US and global bond yields more important for this cross than another small change in local data. As long as carry pressure stays elevated and 112.21 holds, AUD/JPY can keep pressing toward 114.91 despite a domestic macro backdrop that, on paper, argues for the opposite.
Key Takeaways Japan’s core-core CPI accelerated to 1.9% and PMIs strengthened broadly, while Australia’s jobs report contracted and PMIs softened — a combination that should favor Yen, not Aussie. AUD/JPY’s rise despite this divergence signals the cross is trading on global yields and carry conditions, not local fundamentals, right now. The RBA-BoJ rate gap stands at roughly 335bp; even a September BoJ hike to 1.25% would only narrow it to around 310bp, preserving a substantial carry advantage for AUD. US yields briefly fell on the Treasury buyback announcement but rebounded quickly, restoring carry pressure on the Yen within days. AUD/JPY holds a bullish bias above 112.21 support, targeting 114.65-114.91; a break above 114.91 would open a path toward 120.28.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,027.99 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,972.21 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 105,300.90 per tola from PHP 104,650.10 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
9,027.99
10 Grams
90,280.06
Tola
105,300.90
Troy Ounce
280,803.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 549.03 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 545.56 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,403.91 per tola from SAR 6,363.25 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
549.03
10 Grams
5,490.39
Tola
6,403.91
Troy Ounce
17,076.85
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 536.88 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 533.60 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 6,262.03 per tola from AED 6,223.77 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
536.88
10 Grams
5,368.80
Tola
6,262.03
Troy Ounce
16,698.82
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 40,612.71 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 40,362.94 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 473,700.80 per tola from PKR 470,785.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
40,612.71
10 Grams
406,128.90
Tola
473,700.80
Troy Ounce
1,263,188.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 113.55 during the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) despite the cooling labor market. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meetings will be released next Tuesday.
Australia's Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.5% in July from 4.4% in June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. Meanwhile, employment unexpectedly fell by 15,800 jobs in July, versus a rise of 80,200 prior, worse than the market expectations of a 15,000 growth. The weaker jobs data has led markets to scale back expectations for further aggressive interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
“The rise in unemployment marginally strengthens the case for the RBA to hold, particularly given broader signs of weakness in the economy,” said Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee.
Ashwin Binwani, Alpha Binwani Capital’s founder, said institutional investors remained positioned in carry trades against a basket of G10 currencies, led by the AUD. There are also signs that some traders are rebuilding bearish bets on the JPY, as the impact of the intervention has faded.
Standard Chartered pulls forward BoJ hike call to SeptemberAnalysts at Standard Chartered have brought forward their expectations for the Bank of Japan’s next policy move, now projecting that the BoJ will “hike by 25bps on 18 September from October previously.” This revision marks a shift in the bank’s anticipated timing of Japan’s rate normalisation, underscoring a slightly more front-loaded tightening profile than previously assumed.
Technical Analysis: The bullish tone of AUD/JPY remains intactIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ middle line, suggesting underlying demand on dips after the latest pullback from recent highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.12 stays in positive territory but below overbought levels, hinting at steady bullish momentum without signs of exhaustion yet.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the July 22 high of 114.40, en route to the upper Bollinger Band near 114.75. The next hurdle to watch is the 115.00 psychological level, where buyers could face profit-taking and short-term supply.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 113.10, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 112.45. A deeper setback would expose the August 10 low of 111.63, and then the lower Bollinger Band as a more distant support level around 110.15.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 591.02 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 587.79 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,893.78 per tola from MYR 6,855.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
591.02
10 Grams
5,910.40
Tola
6,893.78
Troy Ounce
18,382.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,985.11 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,904.04 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 163,119.60 per tola from INR 162,174.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,985.11
10 Grams
139,851.10
Tola
163,119.60
Troy Ounce
434,984.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
EUR/JPY remains stronger for the second successive day, trading around 186.00 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of a daily chart indicates that the spot is moving higher within the ascending channel pattern, signaling a persistent bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60.85 suggests constructive upside momentum rather than overbought conditions.
The primary resistance lies at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.00. A break above the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around its all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may find the primary support around the nine-day EMA of 184.79, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.64 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 184.70. A break below this confluence support zone would revive the bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.
US Treasury move doubles buybacks and flattens the long endCommerzbank’s FX Research team highlights the impact of the latest US Treasury announcement on the rates complex, noting that, effective 9 September, “the US Treasury will double the size of liquidity support buyback operations to at least USD4bn.” They add that the decision immediately rippled through the long end of the curve, as “the 30Y yield fell 10bp following the announcement, and the curve flattened,” reinforcing the bull-flattening move that has underpinned recent Dollar weakness and Yen strength.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.13%-0.09%-0.05%-0.18%-0.40%-0.43%-0.10%EUR0.13%0.03%0.07%-0.08%-0.28%-0.29%0.03%GBP0.09%-0.03%0.04%-0.11%-0.31%-0.33%0.00%JPY0.05%-0.07%-0.04%-0.14%-0.36%-0.40%-0.05%CAD0.18%0.08%0.11%0.14%-0.22%-0.24%0.08%AUD0.40%0.28%0.31%0.36%0.22%-0.04%0.30%NZD0.43%0.29%0.33%0.40%0.24%0.04%0.35%CHF0.10%-0.03%-0.01%0.05%-0.08%-0.30%-0.35% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) hits a fresh high since early June, around the $4,544 region, during the Asian session on Friday and looks to build on the momentum above a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Traders scaled back their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after the latest US inflation data released last week pointed to signs of cooling price pressures. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed near its lowest level in over three months, touched on Thursday, and turns out to be a key factor supporting the non-yielding bullion.
Investors, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices, bolstered by the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militant group claimed to have targeted eight oil tankers since declaring a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping in late July, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict and lifting oil prices to a three-week high on Thursday. This, to a large extent, overshadows the US Treasury Department's plan to double the size of some long-dated debt buyback operations and remains supportive of elevated US bond yields.
Meanwhile, Minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that Fed officials indicated the need to raise interest rates soon unless there was more progress on bringing down inflation. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are still pricing in around a 68% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the year-end. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, could help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven buck and hold back bullish traders from positioning for any further appreciating move for gold.
In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US will launch the "most crushing economic operation" against Iran. Furthermore, Trump threatened to impose severe penalties on any nation that helps Tehran evade sanctions or does business with Iran. Adding to this, Vice President JD Vance said that economic pressure is the most effective tool against Iran. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, backing the case for the emergence of some USD buying at lower levels, which, in turn, might keep a lid on the Gold price.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisThe XAU/USD pair seems to have found acceptance above the 200-day SMA, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June decline before placing fresh bets. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, reinforcing the upward bias. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.70 flirts with overbought territory, hinting at strong but potentially stretched bullish momentum.
Nevertheless, the broader technical setup suggests a constructive near-term tone. Hence, sustained strength above the 61.8% Fibo. at $4,529 should pave the way for additional gains to the 78.6% retracement at $4,687, ahead of the cycle high at $4,889. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 61.8% retracement at $4,529.03, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,514.16 and then the 50% retracement near $4,417. Deeper floors emerge at the 38.2% level at $4,306.50, the 23.6% retracement around $4,168, and the structural low anchored near $3,946.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.14%-0.11%0.00%-0.18%-0.38%-0.39%-0.10%EUR0.14%0.03%0.11%-0.08%-0.26%-0.24%0.03%GBP0.11%-0.03%0.09%-0.09%-0.27%-0.26%-0.00%JPY0.00%-0.11%-0.09%-0.18%-0.38%-0.40%-0.11%CAD0.18%0.08%0.09%0.18%-0.20%-0.20%0.07%AUD0.38%0.26%0.27%0.38%0.20%-0.02%0.26%NZD0.39%0.24%0.26%0.40%0.20%0.02%0.29%CHF0.10%-0.03%0.00%0.11%-0.07%-0.26%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades in a limited range at around 159.00 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Friday. The pair consolidates, while both the JPY and the USD are underperforming against their other currency peers.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.14%-0.11%-0.06%-0.19%-0.41%-0.45%-0.12%EUR0.14%0.03%0.07%-0.08%-0.27%-0.29%0.03%GBP0.11%-0.03%0.04%-0.10%-0.28%-0.33%-0.00%JPY0.06%-0.07%-0.04%-0.12%-0.34%-0.39%-0.05%CAD0.19%0.08%0.10%0.12%-0.22%-0.25%0.07%AUD0.41%0.27%0.28%0.34%0.22%-0.05%0.29%NZD0.45%0.29%0.33%0.39%0.25%0.05%0.34%CHF0.12%-0.03%0.00%0.05%-0.07%-0.29%-0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
However, financial market experts are of the view that the Japanese currency could outperform the US Dollar as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to remain on a tight monetary policy path. Also, the United States (US) Treasury Department’s plans to double down on its debt-repayment plans, in an effort to curb higher borrowing costs, would keep the US Dollar under pressure.
Dollar pullback eases pressure on USD/JPY as BoJ rate path eyed
Rabobank’s FX team notes that the recent move lower in the Dollar, following news of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s buyback plans, has helped relieve some of the immediate strain on the pair, with “USD/JPY … steered a little further away from the psychologically important 160 level.”
Looking ahead, the bank anchors its outlook on the expectation that the BoJ will quicken the pace of tightening, stating that “on the assumption that the BoJ will accelerate the pace of rate hikes, we maintain a 3-month USD/JPY forecast of 158,” while cautioning that they “cannot rule out the possibility of further attempts at the upside in the near-term.”
Meanwhile, higher-than-expected Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July has reinforced BoJ interest rate hike expectations.
Earlier in the day, the Statistics Bureau of Japan reported that the CPI ex. Fresh Food grew at a faster pace of 1.8% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected, faster than 1.6% in June.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.98, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 159.59. Price action remains capped by this dynamic resistance, suggesting upside attempts are likely to struggle while the pair trades below the short-term trend metric.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.50 stays in neutral territory, hinting at modest bearish pressure rather than oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 159.59, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias and allow for a stronger recovery phase. Looking down, the August 20 low near 158.00 is the key supply level, followed by the August 7 low at 156.68.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around $68.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. Silver prices rise as investors turn to safe-haven metals amid heightened volatility across global currency and bond markets.
Silver price is up nearly 6% this week after the US Treasury Department announced plans to at least double its long-term debt buybacks. This move aimed to contain borrowing costs, driving Treasury yields and the dollar sharply lower. Silver continued its upward momentum even after yields reversed Wednesday’s decline, fueled by concerns that government efforts to rein in long-term borrowing costs may only offer a temporary fix.
US yields rebound as Dollar slide extends after Treasury buyback moveBrown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad observes that “US long-term Treasury yields have retraced most of Wednesday's drop triggered by the US Treasury’s buyback announcement, while USD has extended its decline.” He frames the buyback initiative as a debt-management exercise that has largely unwound the initial move in longer-dated yields even as the Dollar continues to soften, underscoring lingering market unease around the policy signal embedded in the Treasury’s action.
However, further gains for non-yielding Silver could be capped by rising oil prices, which continue to highlight persistent inflationary risks and boost expectations for interest rate hikes. These energy market pressures stem from escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran over control of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Oil supply fears persist as Iran tensions keep crude flows tightAccording to TD Securities, the backdrop for crude remains constrained, with “negotiations on hold for weeks and a shift toward economic pressure” reinforcing the view that “crude flows in the market will remain critically tight.” The bank also warns that “Iranian aggression in the Oman lane will likely remain the norm,” underscoring ongoing geopolitical risks that continue to support a structurally tight oil market.
Washington is preparing to severely restrict Iran's economy in an initiative labeled an "economic D-day," with formal details expected on Monday. The proposed US measures seek to sever Tehran's access to global commercial and financial networks by targeting banks, shipping registries, cash transfers, and smuggling operations to force negotiations over its nuclear program and regional transit.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
EUR/USD remains stronger for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.1680 during the Asian hours on Friday. The Euro (EUR) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD), bolstered by strong economic fundamentals across the region. Markets are closely watching the upcoming HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Germany and the broader Eurozone for further directional cues.
Adding to this strength, soaring European natural gas prices, driven by supply shortages in the Middle East, are keeping inflationary risks elevated. These ongoing price pressures will likely compel the European Central Bank to continue raising interest rates throughout the year.
The central bank's hawkish stance is further supported by robust German economic figures, highlighted by July producer prices rising 3.0% year-on-year. Exceeding market expectations of 2.7%, this marked the fastest annual increase since April 2023. Coupled with a sharp 1.1% monthly rebound, the data underscores persistent inflationary momentum across the Eurozone.
However, upside potential for the EUR/USD pair may remain capped as the Greenback finds renewed strength. Despite attempts by the US Treasury to restrain elevated yields through a long-end bond buyback program, US Treasury yields have resumed their upward trajectory, offering underlying support to the Dollar.
Fed’s Musalem flags upside inflation risks, keeps Dollar bulls alert despite neutral stanceFed’s Musalem delivers a speech broadly in line with the established baseline, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7/10 matching the historical average but masking a notably hawkish tilt on inflation risks. Musalem underscores that monetary policy is “neutral or accommodative” and financial conditions are “pretty accommodative,” yet stresses that underlying inflation at 2.5%-3% is “too high,” warns that a Super El Niño could be the next supply shock, and argues that hiking rates now could avert more aggressive action later, a combination that leans hawkish for the Dollar and front-end yields. The emphasis on Fed credibility, policy independence from fiscal authorities, and the need to get inflation back to 2% reinforces a bias toward tighter policy if inflation fails to decelerate, even as Musalem refuses to prejudge the September FOMC outcome.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.34 points to 132.42, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness relative to recent communications while remaining firmly above the 100 neutral line. This configuration signals that, despite the slight softening captured by the FXS Fed Sentiment Index, the overall stance is still clearly hawkish in aggregate, consistent with the 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score and supportive of Dollar resilience on persistent inflation concerns.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7817 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7808 and 6.7262 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Treasury intervention raises questions over dollar haven status
Swiss franc outperforms as safe-haven demand builds
Switzerland’s balance sheet reinforces haven case
USD/CHF technicals favour bearish bias
Swiss franc’s haven credentials strengthened
The Swiss franc’s credentials as the last true bastion of safe-haven status in the FX universe have been reinforced by events this week.
On Wednesday, the franc was the best-performing G10 currency by some distance following the US Treasury’s announcement that it would double the size of long-dated Treasury buybacks.
While USD/CHF bounced modestly on Thursday as we saw a retracement in the move in long-end Treasury yields, the broader message is pretty obvious. If policymakers in the US are becoming more willing to actively combat market forces when it doesn’t politically suit, the franc stands out as the one true developed-market currency haven given its fundamental strength.
Looking at the charts, the question is whether more interventionist policies like these could provide the catalyst for a broader resumption of the bearish USD/CHF trend seen over recent decades.
Treasury intervention risks grow
This week’s developments suggest tinkering at the long end of the Treasury curve by Treasury may evolve into something far more significant, potentially the tsunami of interventionist activity I described in a separate analysis piece yesterday.
After announcing that long-dated Treasury buybacks would be doubled to at least $4 billion per operation a day earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went further on Thursday, saying purchases could be increased beyond that level.
More importantly, Bessent was explicit that part of the objective was signalling that long-bond yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals. That is an extraordinary statement given the US fiscal position. It effectively amounts to Bessent saying he knows better than the market and is prepared to actively combat bearish forces when yields move to levels the government finds politically or fiscally uncomfortable.
Given the market reaction to the statement was to sell the long end, what was pitched as an operation to improve liquidity risks becoming something far more consequential for the US dollar. If Treasury is seen to be developing a broader suite of measures designed to push long-dated yields lower whenever market forces drive them higher, it risks eroding confidence in the dollar’s safe-haven credentials.
With US government debt already enormous and the cost of servicing it rising rapidly, the incentive to keep long-term borrowing costs contained is obvious.
Haven flows take over
Given the risk of more interventionist policies being used to artificially suppress bond yields, it is only natural that the investment community would seek out alternatives to the US dollar. Based on what we saw earlier this week, the Swiss franc was clearly among them.
Looking at the correlation matrix below, the five-day window suggests what had been a modestly positive relationship between USD/CHF, yield differentials and US Treasury yield movements has abruptly shifted over the past week.
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
Instead, USD/CHF has maintained a strong inverse relationship with other safe havens such as gold, while its relationship with volatility measures such as VIX futures has strengthened sharply. That points to a market increasingly trading the pair through the lens of safe-haven demand rather than relative rates alone.
You could argue that the initial reaction suggests the franc could be a significant beneficiary if the dollar debasement narrative heard earlier this year, and through parts of 2025, begins to manifest itself again.
Fundamentals back the franc
The Swiss franc’s appeal is not just about reputation. The country’s underlying finances are simply a lot stronger than those of the US.
Switzerland is a major net creditor to the rest of the world, with its net international investment position sitting at around 111% of GDP in 2025. In simple terms, the Swiss own far more assets overseas than foreigners own in Switzerland.
Source: FRED, SNB, SECO, FOREX.com
The US is the complete opposite, with a net international investment position of roughly -71% of GDP. So while the dollar has the benefit of being the world’s reserve currency, the US still relies heavily on foreign investors to fund its debt. Countries such as Switzerland, with large pools of savings and overseas assets, are effectively on the other side of that trade.
Source: FRED, FOREX.com
The government debt numbers tell a similar story. Central government debt in Switzerland stood at just 22.3% of GDP in 2024, compared with 115.8% in the US.
That divide is key in the safe haven debate. Switzerland has low government debt, an extremely strong international investment position and the kind of savings base that naturally supports lower borrowing costs. Relative to the States, it’s like chalk and cheese.
USD/CHF bearish bias remains
Source: TradingView
You can clearly see the reaction to Treasury’s announcement on Wednesday with a mammoth bearish bar breaking the minor uptrend that had been in place since early July, along with horizontal support at 0.8013.
The move stalled just shy of uptrend support running from the January low before reversing on Thursday, reclaiming the 100-day moving average in the process before moving back towards former support at 0.8013.
Despite the recovery, until proven otherwise, the rebound looks something akin to a dead-cat bounce.
0.8013 is the immediate focal point overhead. If the price remains beneath that level, it could be used to initiate fresh shorts with a stop above for protection, targeting a retest of 0.7950, where the pair reversed from on Thursday.
Just beneath that sits the January uptrend, along with the key 200-day moving average and horizontal support at 0.7925, making the area from the uptrend down to 0.7925 the key support zone to watch underneath where the pair trades.
If we were to see a sustained break beneath the lower end of that zone, it could open the path for a much more pronounced bearish unwind, putting levels such as 0.7796 and 0.7750 in play initially.
Of course, if the pair were to extend its rebound back above 0.8013 and hold there, the option is there to initiate longs with a tight stop beneath 0.8013 for protection. Initial targets would be 0.8050, where the price bounced on numerous occasions over recent months prior to the breakdown, followed by former uptrend support around 0.8065 today.
The message from the oscillators favours selling into strength rather than buying dips. RSI (14) continues to set lower highs and lower lows and sits beneath the neutral 50 level at 39. That message is confirmed by MACD, which has crossed beneath its signal line, flipped negative and continues to trend lower.
Given the fundamental backdrop and technical picture, shorts are favoured over longs in the near term.
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to around $4,530 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal rebounds after earlier falling following the US President Donald Trump administration’s unexpected decision to boost repurchases of longer-dated bonds.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the Treasury could increase bond buybacks beyond $4 billion, partly to signal that current yields do not reflect underlying economic fundamentals. He stressed that interest rates have nothing to do with the buyback decision.
On Wednesday. the US Treasury Department said it will buy back more of its longer-term bonds, in an effort to curb a sharp increase in borrowing costs, per Bloomberg.
However, the potential upside for the yellow metal might be limited amid energy-driven inflation pressures, which raises the prospect of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes in the coming months. Markets are now pricing a 36.2% chance of a Fed rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, down from 47% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Gold underpinned as US policy backdrop supports longer endAccording to TD Securities, recent policy signals from Washington are helping to shore up bullion in the near term. The bank highlights that “the signal of the Treasury looking to support the longer end, alongside a Fed willing to look past higher energy prices, should be enough to support the yellow metal in the near-term,” suggesting that the current US rates and policy backdrop remains broadly constructive for Gold despite the latest move higher in yields.
Technical Analysis: Gold maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is stretching toward the upper Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.54 suggests strong upside momentum edging toward overbought conditions, hinting that the current advance could be vulnerable to consolidation once the topside band is tested.
On the downside, immediate support is seen near the recent pivot around $4,528, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,380 and the Bollinger middle band close to $4,252, where buyers may attempt to defend the prevailing uptrend; deeper pullbacks would expose the lower Bollinger band near $3,915 as a more distant structural floor. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the upper Bollinger band around $4,585, and a sustained break above this ceiling would open the path for a continuation of the gold rally toward fresh record territory.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The GBP/JPY advanced over 0.72%, refreshing a 14-day high of 216.90, with buyers eyeing a breakout above 217.00, which could open the door to a retest of the yearly highs hit in mid-July. The pair trades at 216.73 after bouncing off the daily low of 215.04.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe technical picture seems more constructive, with GBP/JPY clearing the previous week's high of 216.22, opening the door to further upside. Momentum finally edged higher, as seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remained flatlined during the last two trading sessions.
Upwards, the first resistance is the 217.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the July 10 high of 218.69, ahead of the July 15 high at 219.61.
Conversely, if GBP/JPY slides below 216.00, this paves the way to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.60. Below lies the 100-day SMA at 214.81, followed by the 200-day SMA at 212.51.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The USD/JPY exchange rate climbed back above 159.00 on Thursday as renewed weakness in the Japanese yen combined with a recovery in the US dollar.As of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 159.03, according to the latest chart, after recovering sharply from the August selloff that briefly pushed the pair below 157.00.
The rebound comes as US Treasury yields move higher again following their initial decline after the Treasury Department announced plans to increase buybacks of longer-dated government debt. The US dollar index also recovered toward 98.90 after earlier touching its weakest level since May.
The question for traders now is whether USD/JPY has enough momentum to reclaim 160.00, or whether the current recovery is simply another bounce within the correction from this month’s highs.
Strong US Jobless Claims Support the DollarThursday’s US labor market data provided another reason for traders to buy the dollar. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 in the week ended August 15, down from an upwardly revised 212,000 the previous week and below the 210,000 economists had expected. The figures suggest that layoffs remain relatively contained despite concerns following July’s weak payroll report.
That matters for USD/JPY because a resilient US labor market gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility to keep interest rates elevated, particularly as policymakers continue to monitor inflation pressures
Long-term Treasury yields have also resumed their rise. The US 10-year yield climbed toward 4.7% on Thursday, while the 30-year yield moved back above 5.2%. Higher US yields tend to support USD/JPY by increasing the yield advantage of dollar-denominated assets relative to the yen.
Oil Prices Add Pressure on the Japanese Yen The other side of the USD/JPY rally is renewed weakness in the yen. Japan remains heavily dependent on imported energy, making the recent surge in oil prices particularly important for the currency. Brent crude climbed above $93 per barrel on Thursday as geopolitical tensions continued to disrupt energy markets.
Japan’s latest trade figures highlight the pressure. Imports jumped 27.8% year over year in July, while exports increased 23.2%. The country nevertheless recorded a ¥634.5 billion trade deficit. Higher energy import costs can worsen Japan’s terms of trade and increase demand for foreign currencies to pay for imports, creating another headwind for the yen.
The situation leaves USD/JPY caught between two powerful themes: rising US yields supporting the dollar and expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening supporting the yen over the medium term.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: 159.70 Is the Level to Watch The daily chart shows USD/JPY attempting to stabilize following the sharp reversal from above 164 earlier this month. The pair currently trades around 159.03, slightly below the Bollinger Band midpoint at approximately 159.46.
That places 159.46 to 159.70 as the first important resistance area. A daily break above 159.70 would strengthen the recovery and could put the psychological 160.00 level back in focus. Above 160.00, the next major resistance visible on the chart sits around 161.85. Reclaiming that level would represent a much stronger technical signal and could reopen the path toward 163.00.
The downside is equally important.
Initial support sits around 157.50, which has repeatedly attracted buyers during the recent volatility. A decisive break below this level could expose the August lows around 156.00.
There is one encouraging signal for USD/JPY bulls. The MACD histogram has moved marginally positive, while the MACD line is beginning to recover above its signal line. However, both remain below zero, suggesting the rebound has improved short-term momentum without fully reversing the recent bearish structure.
USD/JPY Forecast: Can the Dollar Break 160? The immediate USD/JPY forecast depends heavily on whether buyers can push the pair through the 159.70 to 160.00 resistance zone. A confirmed move above 160.00 could shift attention toward 161.85, while failure at current levels would keep the pair vulnerable to another test of 157.50.
Friday’s Japanese inflation data could provide the next catalyst. Markets will be watching for evidence that inflation remains strong enough to support further Bank of Japan tightening. Preliminary PMI figures from Japan and the US will also provide fresh information on economic activity.
For now, 159.70 is the key upside level for USD/JPY, while 157.50 remains the level bulls need to defend. With Treasury yields, oil prices and central-bank expectations all pulling on the pair, volatility around the 160.00 psychological level could remain elevated.
Why is USD/JPY rising today?
USD/JPY is rising as the Japanese yen weakens while the US dollar receives support from recovering Treasury yields and stronger-than-expected US jobless claims. Higher oil prices are also creating pressure on the yen because Japan is a major energy importer.
What is the USD/JPY forecast?
USD/JPY is testing an important technical area around 159.00. A break above 159.70 and 160.00 could open the door toward 161.85, while rejection from this area could send the pair back toward support around 157.50.
Will the Bank of Japan raise interest rates?
Expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening remain an important factor for the yen. Upcoming Japanese CPI data will be closely watched for clues about whether inflation is strong enough to support another rate increase.
The Euro remains steady below 1.1700 after failing to hold gains above it, despite hitting a three-month high. Broad US Dollar strength kept EUR/USD from ending Thursday’s session above the 1.1700 mark, with the pair finishing at around familiar levels, unchanged from Thursday’s opening price.
EUR/USD stalls as stronger yields support Dollar before Flash PMIsThe Greenback’s recovery was sparked by the rise in US Treasury yields, erasing some of Wednesday’s losses, following the US Treasury's announcement that it would increase buybacks of long-dated bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the advance of the Dollar against a basket of six peers, is up 0.10% at 98.84. The move capped the shared currency’s advance past 1.1700, which could’ve opened the door to challenge the 1.1800 figure, a level last seen on April 17.
US jobs data showed the labour market remains solid, despite the dismal US NFP report in July. Jobless claims for the week ending August 15 were better than expected at 206K, below forecasts for a 210K jump and the previous print of 212K.
Fed officials Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed and Mary Daly of the San Francisco Regional Bank crossed the wires. The former said they supported a rate hike at the July meeting, though they adopted an open-minded approach at the September meeting. On the contrary, Daly said that monetary policy is appropriate and that the US central bank's credibility remains firm.
Minutes from the Fed's July meeting showed concern about inflation deepened, with several policymakers ready to raise rates and many saying a hike would be needed if inflation doesn't decline toward 2%.
The swaps market had priced in a 35% chance of a rate hike in September. Meanwhile, the odds for December stay close to 64% according to Prime Terminal.
In the Eurozone, Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose from -0.3% to 1.1% MoM, while for an annual basis, it expanded fron 1.8% to 3%, exceeding forecasts of 2.7%.
Attention now turns to tomorrow's Flash PMIs data for France, Germany, the Eurozone and the United States.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
EUR/USD daily chartIn the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1681, extending its advance above the cluster of reclaimed supports around the former trend-line break at 1.1456 and the triple simple moving average (50, 100, 200) now tracking near 1.1472. This positioning above key underlying demand suggests a bullish near-term bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 73.13 signals overbought conditions that could temper further upside and favor periods of consolidation or shallow corrective pullbacks.
On the topside, the next notable resistance is the horizontal barrier at 1.1849, which caps the immediate bullish scope unless buyers can secure a daily close above it. On the downside, initial support is located at the current price region around 1.1681, with deeper protection seen at the broken descending trend line near 1.1456 and the grouped triple simple moving average around 1.1472, where any retreat would be expected to attract renewed buying interest while the broader constructive structure remains intact.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-1.01%-0.82%-0.21%-0.66%-0.37%-0.90%-1.47%EUR1.01%0.35%0.80%0.36%0.60%0.09%-0.47%GBP0.82%-0.35%0.54%0.02%0.26%-0.24%-0.85%JPY0.21%-0.80%-0.54%-0.45%-0.23%-0.70%-1.30%CAD0.66%-0.36%-0.02%0.45%0.23%-0.25%-0.87%AUD0.37%-0.60%-0.26%0.23%-0.23%-0.48%-1.10%NZD0.90%-0.09%0.24%0.70%0.25%0.48%-0.63%CHF1.47%0.47%0.85%1.30%0.87%1.10%0.63% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The Gold price held above $4,500 after a Treasury-led rally, while Morgan Stanley and UBS see scope for prices to climb above $5,000 in 2027. The Gold price consolidated above $4,500 on Thursday after this week's sharp fall in US Treasury yields revived demand for the precious metal.
The Gold to US Dollar (XAU/USD) price traded around $4,518, up 0.14% on the day and 3.66% higher over five sessions.
Gold has gained 12.72% over the past month, although it remains below the January record highs.
The latest advance followed Washington's decision to double some long-dated Treasury buyback operations, a move that initially pulled bond yields and the US Dollar sharply lower.
As covered in our gold and silver market update, the announcement produced an immediate rush back into non-yielding assets.
XAU/USD Prediction: Morgan Stanley Sees Gold Above $5,000 Morgan Stanley has turned more constructive after gold reached its fourth-quarter objective earlier than expected.
Analyst Amy Gower said: “Gold has reached our Q4 forecast of $4,450/oz faster than expected,” adding that the bank sees “a path to >$5,000/oz in 2027 but with scope for volatility too.”
The bank highlighted renewed ETF demand, continued central-bank buying and a lower implied probability of further Federal Reserve rate increases as the main supports.
UBS is even more bullish over a similar horizon.
The bank's Chief Investment Office said: “we expect gold to move toward USD 5,200/oz over the next 12 months,” with slower growth, eventual Fed easing and renewed Dollar weakness expected to support the metal.
That view is consistent with UBS's $5,200 gold forecast published earlier this month.
ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey also remains constructive on the broader trend.
She expects gold to average $4,325 an ounce in 2026 and argues that “any weakness will likely attract renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers.”
Gold Forecast: $4,545 Break Could Unlock Fresh Upside The immediate technical barrier is the June high around $4,545.
A sustained break above that level would reinforce the recovery and shift attention towards $4,700-$4,800 before the psychologically important $5,000 area.
The bullish case is not without risks.
The Federal Reserve's July minutes retained a hawkish bias, while higher oil prices linked to the US-Iran conflict could keep inflation and long-term yields elevated.
Robert Gottlieb, former head of precious metals at Koch Supply and Trading, nevertheless described the Treasury move as “totally unexpected” and “very bullish for gold” because of its impact on long-term yields and the Dollar.
In our view, the latest rebound strengthens the medium-term case for another challenge of $5,000, but a clear break above the June highs is still needed before that target becomes the dominant near-term scenario.
Pennant Breakout Gains Traction Continued signs of strength follow the breakout of a bullish pennant pattern on Wednesday. The breakout ended with buyers in control, as gold closed near the top of the session’s range. Although this bullish pattern is contained within a larger downtrend structure, the sharp advance that preceded the short consolidation pattern suggests that momentum may be sufficient to challenge the broader bearish structure. If demand remains strong, gold could recover the downtrend line and continue toward higher initial targets.
Upside Targets Take Shape A simple measured move objective from the pattern shows a possible conservative target near $4,654. In addition, there is a confluence of two Fibonacci retracement levels at $4,689. Together, these levels establish a potential resistance zone from $4,654 to $4,689. The standard measuring objective, however, points to $4,779 as a potential upside target, providing a higher target if bullish momentum continues to strengthen following the breakout.
Long-Term Confirmation Still Needed Despite the potential for upside, additional signs of strength are needed. Most importantly, a sustained reclaim of the 200-day moving average would signal a meaningful change in character and provide further confirmation that buyers are gaining control. Gold has traded below the 200-day moving average since June 5, making the current test particularly significant. A decisive move above the average would strengthen the bullish case and support continued gains toward the pattern’s higher price targets.
ING expects the silver price to average $68 in Q3 and $74 in Q4 as persistent supply deficits offset softer industrial demand. The Silver price in US Dollars (XAG/USD) price stood near $68.11 on Thursday, up 1.7% on the day and already close to ING's third-quarter average forecast.
ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey wrote: "We now expect silver to average $68/oz in the third quarter of 2026 and $74/oz in the fourth quarter."
That profile implies limited room above current levels during Q3, followed by scope for an advance of roughly 8.6% towards the fourth-quarter average.
The bank has nevertheless cut both estimates from $79 and $84 respectively, reflecting higher yields, a firmer Dollar and weaker investor demand.
Deficit supports the longer-term silver outlook The Silver Institute said: "The silver market is expected to remain in deficit (total supply less demand) for a sixth consecutive year in 2026."
Its February outlook estimated the shortfall at 67 million ounces, even as total supply was projected to reach a decade high.
A later World Silver Survey update offered a smaller deficit estimate but the same direction, stating: "These trends point to another silver-market deficit of 46.3Moz. This would be the sixth in a row."
The Institute subsequently added: "With mine production stable this year, we expect the structural market deficit to widen to 46.3 Moz."
That tightening helps explain why prices can remain supported despite slower photovoltaic demand and substitution reducing the quantity of silver used in each solar panel.
BlackRock described a market where "the surge has reflected strong investor and industrial demand as well as a less liquid market."
Liquidity cuts both ways, leaving silver more vulnerable than gold to sharp reversals when yields rise or investors reduce leveraged exposure.
The principal upside case is therefore continued investment demand meeting constrained mine supply, while the main risks are renewed Dollar strength, higher real yields and a deeper slowdown in industrial consumption.
ING's $74 fourth-quarter average remains constructive from current levels, but the downgrade signals that the path is likely to stay volatile rather than move steadily higher through the final months of this year for investors and industrial buyers.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Silver price extended its gains on Thursday, up more than 1.70%, even as US yields recovered some ground and then resumed their rise following the US Treasury bond buyback announcement. The XAG/USD trades at $68.18 at the time of writing.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe uptrend remains intact in the short-term, with the white metal approaching the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $68.51. Momentum remains bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is above its 50-neutral level and approaching overbought territory.
To cement the bullish bias, XAG/USD must reclaim the 100-day SMA. Once done, the next resistance is the $70.00 milestone, ahead of the 200-day SMA, which is seen as the next ceiling level at $71.97. If buyers clear that level, the psychologically significant $75.00 level becomes the next area of interest.
On the flip side, the XAG/USD first support is the low of the day (LOD) at $65.64. Below, the next support is the August 19 swing low of $62.19, followed by the 50-day SMA at $61.35.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
British Pound climbs as UK inflation keeps BoE hike bets aliveThe Pound Sterling (GBP) advances on Thursday during the North American session, up 0.25% after US economic data showed that the labor market remains solid, despite a weaker Nonfarm Payrolls in July. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3639 after reaching a daily high of 1.3659, its highest level since February.
The Greenback has recovered some ground after posting losses, following the US Department of the Treasury's announcement of a bond buyback program. The Treasury’s goal is to provide liquidity for the long end of the curve, but markets interpreted the move as a form of Yield Curve Control (YCC). Read more...
British Pound: Sustained break above 1.3650 may open 1.41 – ScotiabankScotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that GBP/USD gains into the mid-1.36s are driven more by US Dollar (USD) weakness than intrinsic British Pound (GBP) strength, though United Kingdom (UK) survey data show improving manufacturing orders and pricing power. Technically, Cable has met the near-term objective of retesting the May peak, and a sustained move above 1.3650/60 is seen implying scope for an extension towards 1.41 this year.
"Sterling gains to the mid-1.36s largely reflect our general outlook for the pound but the story is clearly more about USD weakness than GBP strength at the moment." Read more...
British Pound gains as US Dollar softens on Treasury bond buybacksGBP/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.3630 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges, driven by the decision of the US Treasury Department to stabilize domestic bond markets.
US Treasury announced plans to curb surging yields and alleviate market liquidity concerns by doubling its buyback operations for long-dated securities maturing in 10 to 30 years. This increased intervention aims to cap long-term borrowing costs and enhance overall global US Dollar liquidity, which could ultimately exert downside pressure on the currency moving forward. Read more...
Sterling is attempting to extend its recent winning streak after yesterday's weekly opening-range break accelerated the advance to fresh three-month highs. Momentum continues to strengthen alongside the move, reinforcing the constructive medium-term technical backdrop even as the risk of near-term exhaustion begins to rise.
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats about 0.33% on Thursday as US Treasury yields trim some of their Wednesday losses, weighing on bullion, which is also pressured by the recovery of the US Dollar. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,509, after hitting a daily high of $4,540.
XAU/USD holds above $4,500 as solid claims revive Fed cautionThe yellow metal remains bullish-biased, despite the Greenback’s advance. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against six other currencies, is up 0.14% at 98.91, exerting downward pressure on XAU.
On Wednesday, the US Treasury Department announced an adjustment to its bond buyback program, focusing on the long end of the tenors, from 10- to 30-year bonds. The Treasury wrote that the objective is to provide liquidity in the 10- to 30-year bond market. Nevertheless, traders see this as some form of Yield Curve Control (YCC) aimed at impeding a jump in the 30-year yield.
Amid this backdrop, Gold soared sharply by over 4.35% and reclaimed the $4,500 figure. Still, solid US jobs data and higher US Treasury yields exacerbated the pullback towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,512.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 15 came in lower than anticipated at 206K, down from 212K and below the expected 210K. Meanwhile, the 4-week moving average rose by 5K, climbing from 199.75K to 204K.
Meanwhile, Fed officials hit the wires. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the bond market is being affected by robust growth and capital expenditure. He further noted that although he favored rate hikes in July, he maintains an open mind regarding the upcoming September meeting.
San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly said rising long-term bond yields are a global concern, reducing their effectiveness as an indicator. She believes Fed credibility remains intact and that the short-term market mainly reacts to recent data.
On Wednesday, the Fed’s last meeting minutes revealed that some participants remained concerned about inflation, indicating that other policymakers besides Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan are open to raising interest rates if inflation remains high.
Money markets priced in a 68% chance that the Fed will hold rates unchanged at the September meeting, with odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike remaining near 32%, according to Prime Terminal.
Source: Prime TerminalOn Friday, the US economic schedule will feature S&P Global Flash PMIs amid a sparse calendar.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold meanders near the 200-day SMA, above $4,500From a technical perspective, Gold remains upward-biased after reclaiming the 200-day SMA. Worth noting that on its way north, XAU/USD broke a five-month-old downward resistance trendline, drawn from all-time highs near $5,600, which could open the door for higher prices.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, though dipping modestly, indicating that traders are booking some profits before the uptrend resumes.
If Gold ends on a daily basis above $4,500, buyers could expect a test of May’s 20 daily high of $4,595 ahead of the psychological $4,600. The next area of interest is $4,700, with the May 12 daily high at $4,735, surrounded by a cluster of six candles.
Downwards, the first support is $4,500. A breach of the latter would expose the 100-day SMA at $4,380, ahead of $4,300. Below this area, the next support is the 50-day SMA at $4,164.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Gold was lower on the session after profit-taking hit a 4% rally. Silver kept running. The two metals are not trading the same story right now.
Gold made its move Wednesday and ran into the 200-day moving average. Traders took profits as yields recovered. Silver was still working through its own breakout, pressing above Wednesday’s high at $67.02 and reaching $68.99 before pulling back. The session low at $65.64 attracted buyers early and the market never looked back.
Silver has two sources of demand working at the same time. It trades with precious metals when yields and the dollar move in its favor. It also trades on industrial consumption from electronics, electric vehicles, solar manufacturing and AI data centers. Gold only has the first one. Silver having both is why it held Thursday when gold could not.
The Supply Deficit Is the Floor Under Every Rally The silver market is heading for its sixth consecutive annual deficit. Industry forecasts point to a shortfall of about 46.3 million ounces in 2026.
Mine supply has not responded to higher prices because most silver comes out of the ground as a byproduct of copper, lead and zinc production. A mine operator does not change a development plan because silver moved higher. Recycling brings some metal back. It does not fill the gap.
A single use of silver is on track to consume roughly as much metal each year as Chile pulls out of the ground.
It’s not solar, and it’s not jewellery. It’s data centres, and the number comes from the World Silver Survey 2026, produced by Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, where it has been in print since April. I didn’t read it closely enough at the time, and two weeks ago I published an estimate of data centre silver demand that understated it. This article is the correction, and the corrected figure is more interesting than the one I had.
Silver trades at $67.00 today against gold at $4,495.94, putting the gold-silver ratio at 67.1. The metal rose 5.8% on Wednesday to an eight-week high as long-dated Treasury yields fell back from the levels they reached earlier in the week, which still leaves it about 45% below its January 29 intraday high and up roughly 77% on a year ago. Silver's industrial demand is forecast to fall this year, and photovoltaics are the reason. That is accurate on the totals and incomplete on the composition underneath them, and page 51 is where the missing part sits. Golden Meadow publishes the fuller analysis this article draws on.
What the survey actually saysPage 51 of the World Silver Survey 2026, in a focus box titled "Novel Applications in New & Established Fields," states that Metals Focus and the Silver Institute expect silver offtake from data centres alone to exceed 10% of electrical and electronics demand. On the 2026 forecast base of 422.9 million ounces that is more than 42.3 million ounces.
The box identifies where the metal goes: chip packaging, connectors and power modules, silver-based pastes that preserve signal integrity, and thermal interface materials that fill the microscopic gaps between chips and heat sinks. It also flags silver as a neutron absorber in nuclear reactor control rods, driven by the power demands of hyper-scale facilities, with small modular reactor expansion and plant life extension named as additional drivers.
One note on timing, because it changes how the figure should be quoted. The survey was published in April 2026 and says the threshold is expected to be exceeded next year, which on that publication date means 2027. Its demand forecasts run only to 2026, so there is no published 2027 electrical and electronics base to apply the 10% to. I have used the 2026 base of 422.9 million ounces as the nearest available reference. That makes 42.3 million ounces a scale estimate for a threshold the survey expects to be crossed in 2027, rather than a 2026 figure, and the distinction matters for the date rather than for the order of magnitude that the comparisons below rest on.
Now put 42.3 million ounces next to the things a reader already knows. Chile, the sixth-largest silver producing country, mined 42.7 million ounces across the whole of 2025, just ahead of Poland at 42.6 million. One application inside electronics is running at roughly the scale of a national mining industry. It is 83% of all brazing alloys and solders at 51.0 million ounces, an established industrial use that is still growing. It is 28% of the photovoltaic sector at 151.0 million ounces and 91% of the size of the 46.3 million ounce deficit the same organisations forecast for this year. And it is 15.6% of the derived non-photovoltaic electronics figure of 271.9 million ounces, so data centres take roughly one ounce in every six of the electronics silver that does not go into solar panels.
The correction, and the trap inside itTwo weeks ago I compared the net 9.0 million ounce gain in non-photovoltaic electronics against the 35.6 million ounces solar sheds, and concluded that the build-out replaces about a quarter of the loss. That set a net change against a gross change and understated the size of the customer. But the fix is not to set 42.3 million ounces against 35.6 million ounces either, because one is a level of annual consumption and the other is a year-on-year decline. Those do not net.
What the survey figure establishes is different and more useful. Data centres are not a promising new application at the edge of the electronics segment. They are already 15.6% of it outside solar, which is a far larger installed customer than I credited. The segment nonetheless nets only 9.0 million ounces of growth this year, because other uses inside it are shrinking. The survey's India chapter gives one illustration of the mechanism: it reports that persistently high prices are likely to sustain thrifting, and that industry interactions there already point toward 5% to 7% lower silver content in electrical contacts. That finding is specific to India, but it makes the general point that thrifting is not confined to solar panels. It runs through contacts and connectors too, just far more slowly.
Two guardrails so this does not get oversold. The Semiconductor Industry Association reported second-quarter chip sales of $403.3 billion on August 6, up 35.1% on the quarter, with June sales of $134.5 billion up 123.6% year over year. That is a memory-pricing event before it is anything else. TrendForce records conventional DRAM contract prices rising roughly 93% to 98% quarter on quarter in the first quarter, lifting whole-industry memory revenue 81% in a single quarter to $97 billion, with a further 58% to 63% expected in the second and the pace then slowing to 13% to 18% in the third. Silver consumption tracks wafer starts, package counts and paste volumes rather than dollars per bit, so if bit shipments are broadly flat, a memory market that doubles in value consumes broadly the same silver. The second guardrail: 42.3 million ounces, is a level rather than a growth rate, and nothing in the survey tells us how fast it is rising.
Sources: Metals Focus and the Silver Institute: Silver Supply and Demand | SIA: Global Semiconductor Sales Increase 35.1% from Q1 to Q2 2026 | TrendForce: 1Q26 DRAM Industry Revenue Up 81% QoQ on Contract Prices | TrendForce: 3Q26 Memory Contract Price Outlook
What this means to Silver investorsThe horizon here is two to three years and the direction is positive. It puts a number on a demand source the industrial case had until now been describing without one.
State its status carefully, though. The survey prints the 10% statement and the 422.9 million ounce base, both primary. The 42.3 million ounces is my multiplication of the two, a derived estimate resting on primary inputs rather than a number the survey publishes. Anyone quoting it should quote it that way.
It does not rescue 2026. Total industrial demand still falls from 657.4 million ounces to 639.6 million ounces this year and total demand still falls from 1,130.6 million ounces to 1,112.6 million ounces. What has changed is the composition underneath those totals, which is tilting toward a customer thrifting at 5% to 7% and away from one thrifting several times faster. That rotation is the demand half of the argument in Silver Rising. Solar manufacturers have a funded, industrial-scale engineering effort aimed at using less silver per panel, and the 35.6 million ounce fall forecast for this year is what it looks like when that effort works. The survey describes silver's role in data centres in the opposite terms, as essential to chip packaging, connectors and power modules, managing extreme thermal loads and high-frequency signals, and says that role will become more critical as computing demand grows through 2030.
So, the honest reading is that the bearish story about industrial demand is correct for this year and the bullish story is correct for the years after it, and the crossover depends on which of those two thrifting rates holds. That crossover looks nearer than it did two weeks ago. It is still not 2026. Set against a market running into its sixth consecutive annual deficit, forecast at 46.3 million ounces, a demand line 91% the size of the shortfall is a material part of the longer-term case.
Key Points:GBP/USD moved higher as rally continued. USD/CAD pulled back as traders reacted to the rally in the oil markets. USD/JPY rebounded towards 159.00 as traders focused on rising Treasury yields.
EUR/USD
0.00%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
+0.22%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
-0.14%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
+0.46%
USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Traders Buy The Dip
DXY 200826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index attempts to rebound after the strong sell-off, which was triggered by Treasury’s decision to boost buybacks of long-dated bonds.
Today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Treasury could increase buybacks to more than $4 billion per issue.
Traders also focused on the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 206,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 210,000.
U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle below the support level at 98.60 – 98.75 and is moving towards the 99.00 level. In case U.S. Dollar Index climbs above 99.00, it will head towards the nearest resistance at 99.25 – 99.40. A move above 99.40 will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the 50 MA at 99.58.
EUR/USD Is Mostly Flat Amid Profit-Taking EUR/USD 200826 4h Chart EUR/USD is mostly flat as traders take some profits off the table and react to Germany’s PPI report. The report indicated that PPI increased by +3% year-over-year, compared to analyst forecast of +2.7%.
From the technical point of view, EUR/USD attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700. If EUR/USD moves above the 1.1700 level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1775 – 1.1790.
GBP/USD Tests Resistance At 1.3635 – 1.3650 GBP/USD 200826 4h Chart GBP/USD tested new highs as rally continued. Traders bet that Treasury’s bond buybacks will put additional pressure on the American currency.
Currently, GBP/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3635 – 1.3650. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3720 – 1.3735 range.
USD/CAD Tests New Lows
USD/CAD 200826 4h Chart USD/CAD remains under pressure as traders focus on rising oil prices. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.
In Canada, traders focus on the New Housing Price Index report. The report showed that new housing prices decreased by -0.1% month-over-month in July, compared to analsyt forecast of 0%.
The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.3735 – 1.3750. A successful test of this level will push USD/CAD towards the support level at 1.3635 – 1.3650.
On the upside, a move above the 1.3800 level will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.3825 – 1.3840. RSI has recently moved out of the oversold territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 200826 4h Chart USD/JPY rebounds as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.20% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasrueis settled above 4.70%. Treasury yields are moving higher despite Bessent’s efforts to push them lower as bond traders remain worried about long-term rate outlook.
If USD/JPY climbs above the 50 MA at 159.18, it will move towards the nearest resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. A move above 160.00 will push USD/JPY towards the 162.00 level. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to intervene in case USD/JPY climbs above the psychologically important 160.00 level.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
USD/CHF regains ground on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) stabilises following the previous day’s broad weakness, which pushed the pair below the 0.8000 psychological mark and to its lowest level since June 17, weakening the near-term bullish structure. At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.7998 after bouncing from an intraday low of 0.7949.
The pair lost 1.83% on Wednesday and slipped below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8085 for the first time since June 2. However, buyers re-emerged after a brief dip below the 100-day SMA at 0.7975, helping the pair regain ground.
USD/CHF is hovering just below the 0.8000 horizontal barrier. Momentum remains fragile, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.2 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding below zero, suggesting that recovery attempts could struggle against nearby resistance.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 0.8000 mark, followed by the support-turned-resistance zone near 0.8050 and the 50-day SMA at 0.8085. On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 0.7975 offers immediate support, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 0.7933. A deeper decline could expose the horizontal floor at 0.7850.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.03%-0.23%0.44%-0.22%0.05%-0.24%0.29%EUR0.03%-0.21%0.48%-0.18%0.06%-0.23%0.31%GBP0.23%0.21%0.69%0.01%0.27%-0.01%0.51%JPY-0.44%-0.48%-0.69%-0.66%-0.39%-0.70%-0.16%CAD0.22%0.18%-0.01%0.66%0.28%-0.02%0.50%AUD-0.05%-0.06%-0.27%0.39%-0.28%-0.28%0.23%NZD0.24%0.23%0.00%0.70%0.02%0.28%0.55%CHF-0.29%-0.31%-0.51%0.16%-0.50%-0.23%-0.55% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Ultimately, this is a market that has been consolidating for quite some time after a recent breakout, and now it looks as if we are trying to do what we can to continue going higher. The momentum is driven at the moment by Treasury buybacks, and the falling US dollar; rates rising is a bit counterintuitive, but stress could have positive effects as well.
Rounding Bottom Pattern The $70 level above will attract a lot of attention as a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that’s been important a couple of times in the past. With that, it’s likely that traders are eyeing this market quite interestingly and closely right now, as there is so much going on at the same time.
The technical pattern looks like a rounding bottom. I remain bullish of this market, despite the fact that rates are jumping, because rates are jumping as an anti-U.S. dollar type of trade, which can be fruitful for silver. This market currently is noisy, but the buyers have made a strong statement.
Short-term pullbacks interest me, at least until we break down below the 50-day EMA. At that point in time, I will be looking to see if support holds near $65. This is an area that if it gets broken, could send the market reeling.
EUR/GBP trades near the 0.8560s zone, having drifted steadily lower from near the 0.8585 area after failing to hold its push higher. The cross is down 0.15% in Thursday's American session with traders squaring up ahead of a data-heavy Friday.
The wider backdrop stays tense after United States (US) President Donald Trump announced what he billed as the "most crushing economic operation ever" against Iran, warning of consequences for any country providing Tehran a financial lifeline. The read-through to a Euro-Sterling cross is limited; however, both currencies sit on the same side of any energy shock, so the story reads more as an Oil and broad risk-sentiment event than a direct catalyst for this pair.
The immediate focus is Friday's flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) releases. Eurozone surveys are expected to hold in expansion, with the bloc's composite forecast around 51.7, keeping the near-term growth story firmer on the Euro side and giving the single currency a modest underlying bid.
For Sterling, the United Kingdom (UK) schedule looks softer. Retail Sales are expected to slip in July, and the S&P Global UK Composite PMI is seen easing from the prior month, a combination that could keep the Pound on the back foot if the numbers print as feared, and that argues for EUR/GBP holding its recent range floor rather than breaking lower.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8567, holding a mildly bullish near-term bias as price remains above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.8561 and 0.8560 respectively. The pair is also trading over the horizontal support at 0.8563, suggesting a constructive underlying tone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 stays in neutral territory with a slight positive tilt, hinting that buying pressure still outweighs selling interest without reaching overbought extremes.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.8572, followed closely by additional barriers at 0.8575 and 0.8577, forming a tight cap that bulls must clear to extend the recovery. On the downside, support is layered at 0.8563, with the short-term 20-period SMA at 0.8561 and the 100-period SMA at 0.8560 reinforcing a nearby demand zone, and as long as EUR/GBP holds above these levels, the risk favors a continued grind higher toward the overhead cluster.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The pullback is probably not a huge surprise considering that interest rates in America are rising during the session again, which can hurt non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. Ultimately, the 50-day EMA is reaching towards the 200-day EMA, trying to cross over and kick off the so-called golden cross. That might be something worth watching.
Geopolitical Deadlock and Rate Headwinds But this is a market that, unfortunately, is held hostage by the same thing most markets are: the Middle East. The nonsense in the Middle East continues with leaders of both the United States and Iran trading social media barbs but not really making any progress.
So, in this environment, everything’s just kind of locked up, and I think you’re seeing that in gold. With lack of clarity comes a lack of momentum in most markets, and this is no different.
The longer-term outlook for gold is possibly good, but central banks are tight at the moment in a couple of major countries, and that is causing a little bit of an issue as well. If rates start dropping, then non-yielding assets become a little bit more interesting, and I think at this point, there’s a huge disconnect between what should be and what is. And I also believe that there are so many questions right now; a lot of traders might just be stuck.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that EUR/USD gains are being driven mainly by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness, with front-end spreads narrowing since late June and supporting Euro (EUR) fundamentals. Short-term technicals are described as bullish, with a clear break above 1.1625/50 reinforcing prospects for a push into the mid-to-upper 1.17s, and key resistance seen near the 1.1793 retracement level.
Euro advance supported by narrowing spreads"Solid gains in the EUR this week largely reflect a broadly lower USD. Front-end spreads have narrowed considerably since the end of June, supporting the fundamental improvement in the EUR in recent weeks."
"But that is not the story of the past 24 hours as investors react negatively to US policy decisions. German PPI rose a stronger than expected 1.1% in July."
"Bullish—EUR secured a clear extension through the 1.1625/50 zone which has strengthened the prospect of gains pushing on to the mid/upper-1.17s in the short run."
"The 61.8% retracement of the EUR H1 decline sits at 1.1793. Trend dynamics are EUR-bullish. Support is 1.1600/25."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Ryan McKay and Bart Melek at TD Securities say Gold and broader precious metals are likely to remain comfortable in a higher trading range. While systematic and ETF inflows have slowed and rates ticked up, Treasury support for the long end and a Fed tolerant of higher energy costs underpin near-term Gold. However, further upside may wait on clearer Fed-on-hold conviction.
Precious metals consolidate elevated band"While the barrage of recent flows from systematic funds, macro discretionary funds, Asian speculators, and ETFs has notably slowed, and interest rates have moved higher again after yesterday's liquidity measures, gold and precious metals are likely to find comfort in this higher range."
"The signal of the Treasury looking to support the longer end, alongside a Fed willing to look past higher energy prices, should be enough to support the yellow metal in the near-term."
"However, with the market still pricing in hikes for 2027, the next leg higher for gold is unlikely to materialize before the broader market becomes more convinced that the Fed remains on hold."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD trims part of its earlier gains on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) stabilises following the previous day’s sharp selloff. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1686 after touching an intraday high of 1.1710, its highest level since May 14.
The Greenback finds support as US Treasury yields rebound following Wednesday’s steep pullback, which was triggered by the US Treasury Department’s announcement of larger liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government securities.
DBS Group Research strategist Chang Wei Liang acknowledges the recent bout of Dollar weakness but cautions against extrapolating further downside from the latest US Treasury move. He argues that, “given that the additional buybacks are very small and there is also no change in monetary policy, the USD is more likely to consolidate today rather than track lower,” suggesting the currency may pause rather than extend its recent slide.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.76, recovering from an intraday low of 98.56.
Meanwhile, the latest US labour market data provide additional support to the Greenback. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 206K in the week ending August 15, below market expectations of 210K and the upwardly revised previous reading of 212K.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) are expected to take different paths at their meetings next month. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while the ECB is seen raising rates for the second time this year.
These differing policy expectations come amid heightened energy-driven inflation risks as the US-Iran stalemate keeps shipping through the Strait of Hormuz restricted.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday that “rising bond yields don’t give a signal for policy” and that Fed policy “is in a good place.” She added that “short-term yields show markets understand the Fed’s reaction function,” while stressing that the central bank “really has to focus on achieving its inflation target.”
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.25%0.29%-0.26%0.08%-0.36%0.13%EUR0.08%-0.17%0.39%-0.18%0.15%-0.29%0.21%GBP0.25%0.17%0.56%-0.02%0.32%-0.11%0.37%JPY-0.29%-0.39%-0.56%-0.56%-0.22%-0.67%-0.18%CAD0.26%0.18%0.02%0.56%0.35%-0.09%0.39%AUD-0.08%-0.15%-0.32%0.22%-0.35%-0.43%0.05%NZD0.36%0.29%0.11%0.67%0.09%0.43%0.51%CHF-0.13%-0.21%-0.37%0.18%-0.39%-0.05%-0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The New Zealand Dollar strengthened above 0.5950 as China kept lending rates unchanged and a softer US Dollar supported higher-beta currencies. The New Zealand Dollar extended its recovery on Thursday, pushing above 0.5950 against the US Dollar and towards its strongest level of August.
The New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZD/USD) exchange rate traded around 0.5955, up 0.34% on the day and 1.74% higher over five sessions.
China's one-year loan prime rate was left at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for a fifteenth consecutive month, matching market expectations.
Image: NZD crosses today China Stability Supports Kiwi Sentiment The decision offered some reassurance for currencies exposed to Chinese demand, including the New Zealand Dollar.
Barclays said the People's Bank of China “remains in no rush to cut policy rates or the reserve requirement ratio,” with Beijing currently favouring fiscal measures and targeted support.
The Kiwi has also benefited from broader US Dollar weakness after Washington's larger Treasury buyback plan pulled long-term US yields lower.
ING strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole expect that theme to remain supportive, saying: “We expect NZD/USD to be lifted in the coming months by lower front-end USD rates”.
The bank forecasts NZD/USD around 0.60 over three to six months and 0.61 over 12 months.
Image: ERUK's NZD/USD sentiment survey results August 2026 The immediate hurdle is the 0.6000 area, followed by the 2026 high around 0.6093.
A failure to hold 0.5900 would weaken the latest breakout, but the combination of steady Chinese policy and softer US rate expectations currently favours further upside pressure.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Canadian Dollar strengthened as oil prices extended their advance and renewed pressure on the US Dollar pushed USD/CAD towards fresh August lows. The Canadian Dollar gained further ground on Thursday, with firmer crude prices and a softer US currency reinforcing a move that has gathered pace over the past week.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate traded around 1.3776, down 0.25% on the day and 1.09% lower over five sessions.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.880004 (+0.10%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.610518 (-0.11%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.37752 (-0.26%)
WTI crude was also up more than 1% near $85.58 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz standoff kept supply risks elevated.
Oil Prices and Fed Expectations Support the Loonie The Canadian currency has benefited from the combination of higher energy prices and fading expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver another near-term rate increase.
Reuters market commentary highlighted both themes as supportive for the Loonie, while Wednesday's US Treasury decision to increase long-dated bond buybacks also pulled US yields lower and weighed on the Dollar.
The move leaves USD/CAD testing an important area around 1.3770 after falling more than 2% over the past month.
ING strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole remain cautiously constructive on the Canadian Dollar, saying that “broader USD weakness can still drive USD/CAD down to 1.38 by year-end.”
MUFG's latest projections similarly envisage USD/CAD easing from 1.41 in the third quarter towards 1.39 by year-end and 1.36 by the second quarter of 2027.
The immediate Canadian Dollar outlook will remain closely tied to oil and US rate expectations. A sustained break below 1.3770 would strengthen the case for a deeper USD/CAD retreat, while renewed Treasury-yield pressure would threaten the latest gains.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
While much of the world likes to equate Bitcoin and Gold as being anti-dollar competitors, the reality is timing in the two markets is often quite different. I highlighted this on Monday, how there's been a tendency for gold to lead the way higher and then for Bitcoin to take over on more than one occasion.
