Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Key Takeaways Even the strongest bull markets can move too far, too fast.Climax tops are marked by vertical price moves and exhaustion gaps. Select AI giants are in the crosshairs. Is There Such a Thing as Too Much of a Good Thing?When a child gets given a giant bowl of ice cream after a full day of activity, its hard for them to imagine anything better. However, while the first few bites are almost always filled with pure joy, eating too fast or too much can trigger a brain freeze, sugar crash, or stomachache. Similarly, water is a critical component of life. Humans cannot survive more than a handful of days without it. That said, drinking too much water in a short period of time can actually be fatal. The point is, virtually everything (including the stock market) operates on a curve. In moderation, most things like exercise or sunlight can be beneficial. Nevertheless, if you cross the threshold into excess, it can cause problems. The stock market is no different.

AI Stocks: Too Far Too Fast?The stock market is a forward-looking mechanism, a game of expectations that tends to climb the proverbial “Wall of worry.” For instance, at the beginning of 2026, investors were skeptical about AI spending, profitability, and the credit market. However, once AI-related stocks began delivering real profits and raised forward guidance, their stocks rose, bucking geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. However, with the S&P 500 Index up 9 straight weeks for just the 14th time in the past century and many AI stocks up triple digits year-to-date, it may finally be time for a breather.  

What is a Climax Top?Currently, things could not be better in Wall Street’s hottest industry – artificial intelligence. Earnings are rising, CAPEX spending is increasing, and the Agentic AI revolution is upon us. That said, the technical action in numerous AI stocks has transformed from bullish to frothy, parabolic, and potentially climactic.

Popularized by legendary growth investor William O’Neil, a climax top is a technical pattern that signals the end of a multi-month advance in a leading growth stock. Below are the characteristics of a climax top:

·       Roaring Uptrend: The stock must have already advanced significantly (100 or more over the past few months).

·       Accelerated Trend: Next, the stock’s advance turns from an uptrend to a parabolic/vertical move.

·       Largest Point Spread: The stock registers its largest daily point gain (not %).

·       Blowout Volume: Volume simultaneously soars to well above average, signaling “churning” action.

·       Exhaustion Gaps Appear: Euphoria reaches a fever pitch as the stock gaps up overnight (maybe several times), signaling exhaustion.

·       Moving Average Extension: Stocks that are 200% or more above the 200-day moving average are considered very extended.

Potential Climax MovesBelow are some potential climax moves that are setting up.

Dell ((DELL - Free Report) )

Image Source: TradingView

Arm Holdings ((ARM - Free Report) )

Image Source: TradingView

Micron ((MU - Free Report) )

Image Source: TradingView

SanDisk ((SNDK - Free Report) ), which is in Micron’s industry, is also worth watching as a potential climax top.

Bottom Line

While the fundamental story driving the AI revolution remains undeniably robust, select AI stocks are setting up potential climax top patterns. Keep a close eye on the extended charts of tech giants like Dell, Arm, and Micron.

Arm Holdings ARM may reach its $15 billion sales target for its own chips sooner than expected, as demand from the AI boom continues to run ahead of the company's earlier assumptions. CEO Rene Haas told Bloomberg Television he remains very confident Arm can hit that target by the previously stated end-of-decade timeline, while also saying at Computex that stronger-than-anticipated demand could possibly pull the milestone forward. Haas said demand has been stronger than Arm anticipated and described customer interest as fantastic, reflecting the pressure across the tech industry to build more data centers and AI services.

The move is a major strategic shift for Arm, a company long known for licensing chip technology to semiconductor makers rather than selling its own components. In March, Arm announced plans to sell its own chips for the first time and laid out aggressive targets for the coming years, including the $15 billion sales projection. The company expects revenue from this new chip business to eventually surpass its current operations, which are centered on selling intellectual property.

Meta Platforms META will be the first major customer for Arm's AGI CPU, a chip expected to carry as many as 136 cores and draw 300 watts of electricity. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. TSM will produce the chip, which is designed to work alongside accelerators from companies such as Nvidia NVDA . For investors, the bigger story could be that Arm is moving beyond its licensing roots and into a more direct role in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Haas saying customers asked for the product and demand has been stronger than expected.

If you have a decade-long retirement horizon and one slot left for an AI semiconductor name, the choice between Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM | ARM Price Prediction) and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is the question that matters right now. Both ride the same AI buildout. Both were just repriced violently after NVIDIA’s blockbuster May quarter. Only one belongs in a portfolio designed to fund withdrawals.

Arm has been the louder trade. The stock is up 271% year-to-date through June 1, including a 94% gain in May alone, as investors repriced its royalty model after NVIDIA’s print. NVIDIA, by contrast, has done nearly 20% year to date and more than 64% over the past year. The setup matters, because retirement capital cares more about what you pay than what just happened.

Dimension 1: On Valuation, NVIDIA Wins This isn’t close. Arm trades at a trailing P/E of 475 and a forward P/E of 161, on a price-to-sales ratio of 89. NVIDIA trades at a trailing P/E of 34 and a forward P/E of 26, with a PEG ratio of 0.69. NVIDIA is the larger, faster-growing, more profitable business, and it trades at a fraction of Arm’s multiple. For a 10-year hold where the starting price determines a meaningful share of total return, that gap is the single most important number in this article.

Dimension 2: On Capital Return and Yield, NVIDIA Wins Arm pays no dividend and runs no buyback. NVIDIA just raised its quarterly dividend to 25 cents from 1 cent, with an ex-dividend date of June 4, and payment on June 26. The board also authorized an additional $80 billion in buybacks in May, after returning roughly $20 billion in Q1 alone. The yield is still tiny, but the direction of travel is unambiguous: NVIDIA is now returning capital at scale. Retirement portfolios reward that signal. Arm’s cash is being plowed into R&D, with non-GAAP R&D up 43% year over year to $1.91 billion.

Dimension 3: On Volatility and Earnings Reliability, NVIDIA Wins. Arm’s beta is 3.41 while NVIDIA’s is 2.24, making the former more volatile. Arm’s 52-week range runs from $100.02 to $421.69, a swing that should make any retiree uneasy. Arm also posted an EPS miss of roughly 49% in Q3 FY26, while NVIDIA delivered four consecutive quarterly beats, including Q1 FY27 revenue of $81.61 billion, up 85% year over year, with data center revenue of $75.25 billion (+92% YoY). Add in SoftBank’s controlling stake and active Qualcomm litigation, and Arm carries governance and legal overhangs NVIDIA doesn’t.

The Verdict NVIDIA wins this matchup outright for a retirement-focused 10-year portfolio. You get the cheaper multiple, the dividend that just stepped up 25x, an $80 billion buyback behind the share count, a 63% net margin, and the most consistent earnings cadence in megacap tech. CEO Jensen Huang’s framing that the “buildout of AI factories is the largest infrastructure expansion in human history” is now backed by hard numbers.

Arm is the better stock only for one specific investor: the aggressive growth buyer who wants pure IP-licensing exposure to every AI chip shipped, including NVIDIA’s own Arm-based Vera CPU in the Rubin platform, and is willing to pay 31x price-to-sales versus NVIDIA’s 16x for 35% forecast EPS growth in fiscal 2027 against a $50 billion AI inference chip market in 2026. For the retirement portfolio that has to last 10 years and pay you along the way, NVIDIA is the position.

While SpaceX’s anticipated public debut has Wall Street salivating over what could be the most consequential IPO in a decade, the historical record offers a sobering warning. The company filed its S-1 in May, outlining three business segments: Space (Falcon and Starship launch services), Connectivity (the Starlink broadband network), and AI (X and Grok subscriptions). SpaceX’s first-quarter 2026 revenue rose 15% year over year (YoY), an increase of $627 million, driven almost entirely by Starlink subscriber growth while the Space segment actually contracted on fewer launch missions.

The headline numbers are real, and so is the corporate structure that investors would inherit. SpaceX intends to list under a dual-class arrangement with Class A carrying one vote per share, Class B carrying ten votes, and Class C carrying none. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) CEO Elon Musk will serve as Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technical Officer, and Chairman, with control over director elections under NASDAQ’s “controlled company” rules.

However, the most important data point for anyone buying the IPO sits outside of the SpaceX S-1 entirely. It lives in a Truist study cataloguing what tends to happen to marquee public debuts in their first 12 months.

The 55% Number Wall Street Should Be Watching As reported by an X post from Josh Schafer, Truist’s Keith Lerner studied 30 major IPOs, and the standout figure is the average maximum first-year drawdown of -55%. The best-case maximum drawdown in the study was -20%. The worst was -90%, and they apply to some of the most celebrated names of the past decade.

The interim path is just as instructive. Across the group, the average return was +4% after one week, +4% after one month, +20% after three months, +1% after six months, and +14% after 12 months. That 12-month average looks respectable on its own.

The median, however, was -9%, meaning a typical major IPO lost value over its first year. The positive average was carried by a handful of outsized winners, and that gap between mean and median is where the cautionary tale lives.

Arm Holdings: The Outlier That Proves the Rule The +14% 12-month average was led by names like Zoom Communications (NASDAQ:ZOOM), Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR), MongoDB, and Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM). Arm is the most recent example, and its post-IPO chart is exactly the volatility study a SpaceX buyer should review. The stock was priced in September 2023, vaulted on AI hype, and has since rewarded patient holders with a five-year return of 533% from its IPO close.

The journey has been anything but linear. ARM stock changed hands at $165.84 on November 5, 2025, then fell to $97.05 by February 4, 2026, a peak-to-trough swing of 41% in three months. It then rallied back to $222.12 by May 6, after prior 24/7 Wall St. coverage of the February earnings reaction caught the lower end of that range.

That round trip happened to a company posting Q4 FY2026 revenue of $1.49 billion, up 20% YoY, with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.60 and full-year free cash flow of $882 million. The valuation gut-check is the punchline: Arm carries a P/E ratio of 474x and a price-to-sales ratio of 87x, against an analyst target price of $241.19. Even dominant franchises can absorb brutal drawdowns when the multiple races ahead of the fundamentals.

Why SpaceX’s First-Year Volatility Could Be Amplified Several SpaceX-specific factors could make the historical pattern more pronounced rather than less. The S-1 discloses that the company does not insure its in-orbit satellites and warns that investors could lose all or part of their investment in the Class A common stock. SpaceX’s AI segment generated revenue of $818 million in Q1 2026 but posted a loss from operations of $2.47 billion, with research and development expenses up 126% YoY as the company expanded its data center footprint.

Yet, the bull case is worth considering. SpaceX’s Connectivity segment delivered $11.39 billion in 2025 revenue with 50% YoY growth and segment adjusted EBITDA of $7.17 billion. The Space segment has been adjusted EBITDA positive on a sustained basis since 2018, the company has raised over $9 billion in equity capital since its 2002 founding, and a five-for-one stock split was approved in May.

The Long Memory Takeaway Lerner’s data offers a realistic framework rather than a doomsday call. The average major IPO buyer endured a 55% drawdown at some point in year one, and the typical IPO actually lost value over 12 months. Even Arm Holdings, one of the study’s biggest winners, gave back 41% in three months on its way to a 533% multi-year gain.

Long term, Wall Street has typically historically rewarded patient owners of dominant franchises, and SpaceX may eventually join that list. The path there, however, tends to be far more volatile than launch-day headlines suggest. Investors who want exposure can consider sizing their positions to survive a drawdown closer to the study’s average than its best case.

That framework matters more than any single price target. History doesn’t promise a 55% drop in SpaceX stock, but it does suggest that such a drawdown would be entirely normal.

Listen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).

After repeated failures and a fortune lost on the floor of the ocean, Cyrus Field pulled off the impossible, laying a working telegraph cable across the Atlantic. Suddenly, Queen Victoria and President Buchanan could trade greetings in mere minutes instead of prolonged weeks of no news. Naturally, Field became an instant national hero… but three weeks later, the cable went cold.

The backlash was brutal. The same newspapers that had cheered him began trading in ideas that Field’s entire operation had been a swindle from the start… a scheme to pump a worthless stock and dump it on a gullible public.

A few even insisted the messages had been faked. So, what am I getting at here? It’s simple: Field had run headlong into what I call “the reality wall.”

SpaceX’s Reality Wall The Reality Wall is the moment the hype runs out of road and the hard, unforgiving truth of the engineering catches up.

Most ventures die at that wall. But Field’s did not.

He spent eight more years chasing it (going broke in the process); and in 1866, he finally laid a cable that worked. Once it held, it went from being an experiment and borderline scam, to becoming the nervous system of global finance, commerce, and news for the next hundred years.

I’ve been thinking about Cyrus Field all week, because the SpaceX IPO just hit its reality wall. The $2 trillion hype trade that had been carrying every space stock higher slammed into its first real valuation and governance gut-check. The financial commentators came out swinging – “the number is absurd,” they said, “the index fast-tracking is a grift on retail,” “this is a dump on your 401k.” The whispers have started. So, is the parade is over?

Here’s the question that actually matters, the one that separates the initial public offerings that mint fortunes from the ones that vaporize them: does this trade burst through the reality wall, or die at it?

“Everyone else is 10, 15, 20 years behind.”

Every IPO has hype. Every IPO eventually meets the wall. GoPro (GPRO) met it and never recovered. Fitbit (FIT) met it and faded. Facebook (META) met it too… a brutal drawdown in its first couple of years… and then bulldozed straight through and became one of the most valuable companies on earth. The difference is never the hype. It’s what’s standing behind the hype.

What’s Behind the SpaceX IPO Behind SpaceX is the hardest business on the planet. They literally call it rocket science.

Just how hard it is became apparent this past week, when Blue Origin’s rocket exploded before it even cleared the ground. This is Jeff Bezos we’re talking about – one of the great business minds of our era, with effectively unlimited capital – and his rocket blew up on the pad.

Only two companies on earth have turned rocket science into a reliable, repeatable commercial machine: SpaceX and Rocket Lab (RKLB). That technical moat is enormous, and in an age where most moats are eroding, this one is getting wider.

Everyone else is 10, 15, 20 years behind.

Now layer on what that moat unlocks – orbital computing, satellite intelligence, geospatial observation, national defense, eventually point-to-point travel that gets you from Los Angeles to Beijing in about an hour. Does that last one sound like science fiction? Of course it does. So did a mainstream $30,000 electric car when Tesla (TSLA) went public in 2010, and people laughed at that, too.

Sixteen years later, Tesla is the most valuable automaker in the world. This is a founder who has turned science fiction into reality before – more than once, with the most ambitious projects imaginable.

If I’m betting on anyone to break through the wall, it’s the man with the longest track record of doing exactly that, a fresh IPO war chest of roughly $75 billion, and Tesla’s balance sheet behind him.

And that “grift on your 401(k)” accusation? Take the emotion out and it falls apart. You want the indices to own a $2 trillion company.

Picture an index fund that doesn’t hold one of the four or five most valuable businesses on earth – that isn’t protecting you, it’s handing you a broken, inefficient portfolio. The fast-tracking is the market scrambling to build a sensible index for a wave of trillion-dollar IPOs the rules were never written for.

“Knowing which is which is the whole game.”

Here’s where it gets interesting for your portfolio, though, because the reality wall isn’t only a space story. The same pattern is flashing across the entire AI Boom.

The AI Signal Under the Noise Take Nvidia’s (NVDA) move into the PC chip market for the first time in its history – a market Intel has owned for decades. Read past the headline and it tells you two things.

First, the smartest company in AI is now betting heavily on Physical AI – pushing intelligence out of the cloud and onto the device, which puts names like Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) squarely in the path of the next leg of this buildout. Second, that new chip is built on ARM (ARM) architecture.

All roads lead back to the foundry when it comes to printing chips. All roads lead back to ARM when it comes to running them. Every one of those chips sold sends a royalty back to ARM. That’s a quiet toll booth on the entire AI economy.

Then there’s the software bounce, where I’ll do something most analysts won’t: admit I got it wrong. I called this a dead-cat bounce. It wasn’t. A 45% rally off the lows, a clean bounce off the 200-week moving average – that’s real technical strength, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise.

But strength in the tape doesn’t resolve the long-term risk that AI eventually collapses demand for ordinary software. The market is finally getting selective. The names that own proprietary data and live inside a workflow AI can’t easily replace – the nervous-system businesses – deserve their bounce. The pure-function names riding the same tide don’t.

Knowing which is which is the whole game.

And watch the drones. They went red-hot before the Iran War, then ice-cold the moment the thesis got validated and everyone sold the news. Now an unexpected jolt of good news out of the White House looks like it could reawaken the trade.

We’ve seen this exact movie with quantum stocks a few weeks ago: red-hot, ice-cold, a policy catalyst, then liftoff. The drone names – AeroVironment (AVAV), Kratos (KTOS), Red Cat (RCAT) – look to be a few weeks behind that same blueprint.

Pull it all together and the signal underneath the noise is the one we’ve been pounding the table on for months. Seven, eight, nine of the 11 sectors can close red while tech rips 2% to 3% higher.

That isn’t random.

That’s the cleanest expression yet of an economy being weighed down by stagflation while the AI train refuses to slow.

We are in the later innings here. Not the ninth but not the fourth, either. The music is still playing, and you stay on the floor as long as it does. The trade is simple, and it hasn’t changed: own AI, and forget almost everything else.

In this week’s episode of Being Exponential With Luke Lango, we walk through exactly where these reality-wall setups sit on the charts… the technical support levels worth watching across space, chips, and drones, and the specific names we think burst through rather than break against the wall.

Watch the full episode here. Also, be sure to subscribe to Being Exponential on X (formerly Twitter) for more exclusive content.

Could the AI trade be starting to lose its edge—or is it just primed for a break?

Listen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).

Tom Yeung here with your Sunday Digest. 

When people talk about the year “1999,” most investors will immediately tense up. That year was the start of a terrible stretch for the value-focused buy-and-hold crowd. The dot-com bubble burst meant that anyone who bought the Nasdaq Composite in January that year would have been in the red until 2006… just in time for the global financial crisis two years later. 

Experienced growth investors will also shudder at the thought of 1999. Many internet companies saw their share prices peak early that year, including Lycos (March), Priceline (April), and TheStreet.com (May). In fact, many smaller dot-coms were already on their way out by the time 1999 began. 

That means when Louis Navellier says he thinks today’s market looks a lot like 1999, he’s really saying two things: 

Bullish. Much like the internet, AI is justifying more gains to come. Consumers and companies are paying handsomely for the best AI models, and industry leaders are generating record profits as a result. Anthropic, an AI startup that lost roughly $5.2 billion last year, expects to swing to an operating profit this quarter.  Bearish. However, high valuations today make for an extremely fragile bull market. Smaller AI laggards are already fading away, and indebted ones like Oracle Corp. (ORCL) are showing cracks in their balance sheets. Louis forecasts a highly volatile summer and the possibility of a meaningful pullback.  After all, if so many AI stocks are starting to look like hockey-stick charts like the one from Intel Corp. (INTC) below, it’s easy to see how ugly a selloff can get. 

INTC stock price 

Source: LSEG 

To navigate this increasingly brittle rally, Louis has become far more selective in the stocks he’s recommending. And to do that, he’s partnered with TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan to build a new AI-driven investing system that combines his Stock Grader research with TradeSmith’s market-timing technology. 

The result is a new Tactical Profits Portfolio that selects the best AI-focused companies with strong fundamentals that can withstand drawdowns. It also helps flag weaker players at risk of losing ground. 

On Thursday, June 10, Louis will sit down with Keith and explain the work they’ve done with their system and how their stock-selection tools have helped investors navigate past volatility. 

You can sign up for their presentation here.

Today, I’d like to give a sample of five stocks that pass this threshold, and another three that fail it. And if you’re worried about the stocks in your own portfolio, you can register for their event and use their free ticker tool for a limited time to check their short-term health.

Five High-Quality Names for a Volatile Summer  Readers will immediately notice that the five companies in this list are wide-moat firms trading at surprisingly reasonable prices. All run like quasi-monopolies, giving them the strength to outlast a market selloff. And all were recently ranked well by both Louis’ Stock Grader and TradeSmith’s market-timing system. 

1. Nvidia Corp. (NVDA). The “king of AI” continues to expand its domain. Last week, at Computex 2026, CEO Jensen Huang revealed that the chipmaker plans to move into personal computers (PCs) with a new chip called the RTX Spark that combines AI and traditional computing power. 

His rationale is straightforward: PCs are looking much like the “dumb phones” from the 1990s. Their purpose has not changed in decades, even though technology has marched ahead. Today, smartphones are used for everything except making calls. Why can’t the same happen for a reinvented laptop? 

In addition, Nvidia continues to surprise even its greatest fans. Last month, the company announced its 14th consecutive earnings beat. Earnings per share grew 95% to $1.87, surpassing consensus by 6%. The company has expanded its supply chain faster than Wall Street expected and kept its lead in AI chips. At Computex 2026, the company additionally announced that its next-gen Vera Rubin AI supercomputer is already ramping into full production – delivering on a promise Nvidia made in 2024. 

By my calculations, that means Nvidia’s fair value is closer to $300 per share today, up 40% from its current  share price. The firm is dominating its industry, and its solid “B” rating in Louis’ Stock Grader suggests it’s an excellent company to buy, even after its multiyear run. 

2. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL). Meanwhile, Google’s parent company is the only major hyperscale AI data center firm expected to remain cashflow positive in every quarter this year. Analysts expect net cash inflows of $18 billion in 2026 (despite $185 billion in data center spending). That’s thanks to a combination of: 

A dominant search business. Search revenue growth hit 19% growth last quarter, and the remainder of 2026 should see a windfall from record political ad spending for the midterm elections.  Efficient data center chips. Alphabet began building custom “TPU” chips as early as 2013 to handle its voice-to-text system on Android phones. These purpose-built chips have allowed the firm to run its AI models far more efficiently than rivals’. Studies show Alphabet’s TPUs delivering between 1.6X and 4X more performance per dollar than general-purpose GPUs.  A winning AI model. Google’s Gemini 3.5 AI model has proven exceptionally capable, and it’s beginning to steal consumer market share from OpenAI. Betting markets expect Google to have the second-ranked model behind Anthropic by the end of 2026.  That suggests Alphabet’s fair value is somewhere in the mid-$400s range, according to my math. The company’s vertical integration is proving to be a durable competitive advantage, and the advantage looks set to expand over time. Louis’ and TradeSmith’s system both agree. 

3. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD). Over the past several years, AMD has capitalized on Intel’s stumbles to establish itself in the CPU market. It has gone from less than 10% market share to about a third overall – and provides nearly half of all server CPUs. Its evolution from near-bankrupt company to world-beater got CEO Lisa Su named Time magazine’s CEO of the Year 2024. 

Markets might still be underestimating AMD’s potential. 

In a recent earnings call, Su noted that the CPU-to-GPU ratio should move from a 1-4 or 1-8 ratio today to 1-1 in the coming years. She joins the bosses of Intel and Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) in predicting the return of the CPU. 

I believe they’re right (even though they’re all CEOs of CPU companies). 

That’s because AI is shifting from mostly training and simple inference to agentic inference. This new type of AI requires far more “thinking,” where AI models will plan, call tools, run code, inspect results, and sometimes run in circles before asking for help. GPUs are still needed to run AI models, but CPUs are then used to orchestrate and analyze results. 

That should put AMD on a far faster growth track than people expect. Analysts are currently expecting growth to taper off by the end of 2027, but I expect demand could last through 2030. Louis’ and Keith’s systems both agree, awarding AMD their top bullish scores. 

4. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM). Taiwan Semi (also known as TSMC) is the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer. The firm controls roughly 70% of the market and is the only chipmaker capable of manufacturing the advanced 2-nanometer process at profitable scale. It is now working on the A16 and A13 nodes. 

Expectations for the company are surprisingly modest. TSMC trades at just 28X forward earnings and 21X forward cash flows – well below less established firms like Intel and China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC). Investors have become conditioned by years of boom-bust cycles in the chip “fab” business and typically view incumbents with skepticism. (Upstarts typically get a free pass during boom times.) 

Yet, skeptics will ignore the Taiwanese firm at their own risk. Like Nvidia, TSMC has been able to raise prices thanks to insatiable AI demand. The company expects capacity to rise just 7% in 2026, meaning that over two-thirds of its 31% revenue growth is coming from price increases. Its monopolistic position means further price increases are likely. 

Consolidation among semiconductor companies has also created demand for more complex chips. Larger firms like Nvidia and AMD are combining GPUs, CPUs, and memory components into integrated products, and these complicated chips require the type of leading-edge nodes that TSMC produces. Though Taiwan Semi is more of a “grind higher” company because of its capital investment needs, it’s still a solid enough company that should weather a selloff. The company earns top marks in Louis’ and Keith’s system. 

5. Analog Devices Inc. (ADI). Finally, we have Analog Devices, one of the world’s largest analog and mixed-signals chipmakers. The company has a particularly wide lead in high-performance signal processing chips – the devices that convert real-world information (light, sound, temperature, voltages) into the usable “0s” and “1s” that digital chips need. 

Profits are high thanks to years of investments and high customer switching costs. Operating margins have hovered around 40% since 2020. Growth is also quite reasonable, thanks to the rise of electric vehicles, robotics, and “internet of things” devices. Analysts expect revenues to increase 34% this year. 

The AI boom now offers three new paths for growth. 

Advanced robotics. The most established way for Analog Devices to grow is through providing chips for AI-powered devices. Every AI-enabled phone, car, camera, robot, and wearable device must convert analog data into digital information.  Chip power systems. High-end GPUs pull hundreds of watts, and their inconsistent demands create voltage spikes that power systems must smooth out. According to a report from Deloitte, power systems cost between 5% to 10% of a typical AI server rack. That benefits Analog greatly – data center product revenues rose 76% in the most recent quarter).  Analog AI computations. Researchers are now exploring analog AI chips that can store more than binary 0s and 1s. Though commercialization of this technology is years away, this could provide Analog Devices with a powerful growth engine down the road.   Together, that makes Analog one of my top long-term companies to buy. The company has a durable moat in analog chips, and its strong quantitative scores from Louis and Keith suggest there’s still time to get in on this high-quality firm. 

Knowing When to Sell  Louis’ and Keith’s systems also make it clear that some AI stocks are off the table. These include: 

Accenture Plc (ACN)  Adobe Inc. (ADBE)  Intuit Inc. (INTU)  Not only are the fundamentals at these firms deteriorating – often from AI competition – but short-term momentum is also turning decidedly negative. That’s a highly bearish sign in this returns-chasing market. No retail investor wants to hold a sinking stock. 

These are not the only companies at risk. 

In their upcoming presentation, Louis and Keith caution why the months ahead could be much more volatile than many investors expect… and why comparisons to 1999 are both an encouragement and a warning for investors today. 

You can register for their presentation here.

I’ll be out of town next week, so I’ll see you back here in two weeks 

Regards, 

Thomas Yeung, CFA 

Market Analyst, InvestorPlace 

Thomas Yeung is a market analyst and portfolio manager of the Omnia Portfolio, the highest-tier subscription at InvestorPlace. He is the former editor of Tom Yeung’s Profit & Protection, a free e-letter about investing to profit in good times and protecting gains during the bad.

© Sundry Photography / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Arm (NASDAQ: ARM | ARM Price Prediction) has been one of the most explosive AI infrastructure trades of 2026, with shares rocketing 197.19% year to date as the chip designer cements its position at the center of the agentic AI buildout. After a 52.32% surge over the past month, the stock is consolidating.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Arm is $359.98, implying roughly 10.81% additional upside from current levels by year-end 2026. We rate shares a buy with high confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $324.86 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $359.98 Upside 10.81% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% From $109 to $324: How Arm Got Here Arm entered 2026 at $109.31 and now trades just off a 52-week high of $427.99, though shares pulled back 19.33% over the past week.

The catalyst was the May 6, 2026 Q4 FY2026 report. Revenue hit $1.49 billion, up 20.1% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.60 beating the $0.5793 consensus.

Data center royalty revenue more than doubled, and CEO Rene Haas said “demand for Arm AGI CPU, Arm’s first data center chip, has exceeded expectations.” Management cited more than $2 billion in customer demand for AGI CPU across FY2027 and FY2028.

The Case for $437+ The bull scenario points to $437.55, a 34.69% total return. Arm holds roughly 50% CPU compute share among top hyperscalers, with Meta co-developing a multi-generation AGI CPU roadmap, Google replacing x86 with custom Arm-based Axion in next-gen TPUs, NVIDIA building its Vera CPU on Arm, and Microsoft expanding Cobalt across Azure.

CSS royalty rates climbed from roughly 5% of ASP on Armv9 to north of 10% on next-generation deals. With the data center CPU TAM projected at more than $100 billion by 2030, royalty take rates that doubled represent powerful operating leverage.

What Could Go Wrong The bear case lands at $278.99, a 14.12% drawdown. Valuation is the obvious overhang. A trailing P/E of 399 and forward P/E of 179 leave no room for slippage.

Wall Street consensus target of $247.41 sits well below current levels. RPO fell 7% YoY, non-GAAP operating margin compressed from 52.8% to 49.1%, and R&D spending jumped 43% to $1.911 billion.

Bulls counter that margin compression reflects deliberate investment in the AGI CPU silicon ramp, which has $2B in committed demand. The Qualcomm/Nuvia trial scheduled for Q4 calendar 2026 and 25% US tariffs on semi imports create catalysts for a multiple reset.

Arm Price Prediction 2026-2030 My 24/7 Wall St. price target of $359.98 and buy rating reflect 90% confidence that the AGI CPU ramp and CSS royalty rate expansion drive numbers higher into FY2027. The tipping factor is visibility: $2B in booked AGI CPU demand and 50% hyperscaler share gives this story unusual conviction at a high-beta name.

Risk/reward improves on any pullback toward the 50-day moving average near $214.92. The thesis weakens if Q1 FY2027 revenue comes in below the $1.26 billion guide or if Qualcomm litigation breaks against Arm.

Here is where our model projects Arm could trade, assuming current growth trajectories and royalty rate expansion hold.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $359.98 2027 $385 2028 $415 2029 $445 2030 $469.95 These projections assume Arm executes on the AGI CPU roadmap and CSS adoption keeps royalty rates climbing. Significant upside or downside could come from the Qualcomm trial outcome or a sharper-than-expected AI capex pullback.

© Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Shares of Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM | QCOM Price Prediction) are down 6% to $193 and change in midday trading Wednesday, while Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) stock is off 5% to $309.75. The moves come as mobile and edge-compute chip names lag the broader semiconductor tape.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) is down by 2.3% on the session, signaling that the weakness extends well beyond Qualcomm and Arm. QCOM stock and ARM stock are simply at the sharp end of a multi-day chip selloff.

Mobile-Chip Pair Caught in the Downturn Qualcomm and Arm are tightly linked. Qualcomm’s mobile processors are built on Arm’s instruction-set architecture, and Arm collects royalties across the mobile ecosystem, so weakness in one tends to track the other. The pair also has a history of licensing tension and litigation, which makes their linkage in a selloff worth flagging.

There isn’t one clean catalyst for today’s mobile-chip moves. Traders point to a broad risk-off tone in high-valuation chip names, profit-taking after big year-to-date runs, rate concerns, and the lingering fallout from Broadcom‘s (NASDAQ:AVGO) recent weak AI guidance Broadcom’s recent weak AI guidance.

The macro backdrop isn’t helping. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX sits at 19.87, up 26% over the past week, and the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.56%, near the upper end of its 12-month range.

QCOM: A Familiar Air Pocket Qualcomm’s most recent quarter, Q2 FY2026, beat on both lines with revenue of $10.6B and non-GAAP EPS of $2.65. However, Qualcomm’s handset revenue fell 13% to $6.02B on memory supply constraints and softness from Chinese handset OEMs, a setup that leaves QCOM stock sensitive to any mobile-demand wobble.

The stock carries a forward P/E ratio of 20x and a beta of 1.6, with an analyst target price of $180. Even after today’s pullback, Qualcomm stock is still up 11.6% year to date (YTD), leaving room for further profit-taking.

ARM: High Beta Meets a High Bar Arm’s most recent quarter showed revenue of $1.49B, up 20% year over year (YoY), with license revenue jumping 29% and data center royalties more than doubling. CEO Rene Haas highlighted the launch of an Arm AGI CPU and over $2B in customer demand across FY27-FY28, with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) as lead partner.

However, ARM stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 399x and a forward P/E ratio of 179x, with a beta of 3.8. The analyst target price stands at $247, well below today’s quote, and the stock is still up 181% YTD even after the recent slide.

That valuation profile makes Arm a natural pressure point when risk sentiment turns. ARM stock’s 52-week range of $100 to $428 tells you how much air is in the move both ways.

What to Watch Into the Close For Qualcomm, the next event on the calendar is the June 24 Investor Day, focused on data center and physical AI updates, which could reframe the narrative beyond handsets. For Arm, traders can track how the stock behaves around its 50-day moving average near $215 if the selloff deepens.

Reddit chatter on QCOM remains in neutral territory with low activity, suggesting retail isn’t capitulating yet. With the VIX elevated and yields firm, investors weighing their exposure to mobile-chip names may want to consider their position sizing and entry points rather than chase intraday lows.

Both the Qualcomm and Arm share-price moves are intraday and can shift in the coming sessions. Any late-day commentary from sector analysts could set the tone into Thursday’s open.

The move is also lining up with strength in Technology (XLK) as the Nasdaq (QQQ) pushes higher.

Shares are catching a bid after BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya maintained a Neutral rating while raising its price forecast to $335.00, adding to a cluster of recent forecast hikes. The analyst sees stronger long-term chiplet potential as agentic AI expands the server CPU opportunity.

Arya said agentic AI is "a powerful demand accelerant" for CPUs, including ARM challengers, because orchestration and decision-making workloads are better suited for CPUs than accelerators.

In the same recent set of updates, Mizuho reiterated its Outperform rating and raised its forecast to $500.00, while Barclays reiterated its Overweight rating and raised its forecast to $360.00.

With markets open, the tape is supportive: the Nasdaq is up 0.94%, and Technology is up 0.97%, while market breadth is firmly positive with 10 sectors advancing versus 1 declining. That kind of backdrop tends to reward high-momentum leaders, and Arm is acting like one today.

Technical AnalysisArm is still in a powerful, longer-term uptrend, trading above all major moving averages, including the 20-day SMA ($310.48) and the 200-day SMA ($160.04). The golden cross that triggered in April (50-day SMA moving above the 200-day SMA) continues to reinforce the "trend is up" message on pullbacks.

From a levels perspective, the stock is well off its February 52-week low ($100.02) and below the June 52-week high ($427.99), leaving room for volatility inside that wide range. The most recent swing high in June and swing low in March help frame the current structure as "high and choppy," rather than a clean, low-volatility grind.

Earnings & Analyst OutlookLooking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 29, 2026 (estimated) earnings report.

EPS Estimate: 36 cents (Up from 35 cents YoY) Revenue Estimate: $1.27 Billion (Up from $1.05 Billion YoY) Valuation: P/E of 361.7x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $255.85. Recent analyst moves include:

B of A Securities: Neutral (Raises Target to $335.00) (June 11) Mizuho: Outperform (Raises Target to $500.00) (June 4) Barclays: Overweight (Raises Target to $360.00) (June 1) Top ETF ExposureSignificance: Because ARM carries significant weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock.

Price ActionARM Stock Price Activity: ARM Holdings shares were up 6.52% at $327.46 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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Urban Edge Properties trades at 79% of NAV and 17.6x AFFO, entering value territory amid strong shopping center fundamentals. UE benefits from densely populated, high-income Northeastern markets, boasting 96.7% occupancy and aggressive lease spreads, but growth is rate-driven due to full occupancy. High anchor space limits leasing economics but offers redevelopment potential, with SNO leases providing visibility into future NOI growth.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Urban Edge Properties (NYSE: UE) announced today that it will release its first quarter earnings prior to the market open on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The Company will host an earnings conference call and audio webcast on April 29, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.

All interested parties can access the earnings call by dialing 1-877-407-9716 (Toll Free) or 1-201-493-6779 (Toll/International) using conference ID 13759141 or by using the following link for instant telephone access to the event: Call Me. The call will also be webcast and available in listen-only mode at this link: UE First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call, or on the investors page of our website: www.uedge.com.

If you are unable to participate in the live call, a replay will be available at the webcast link above, or on the investors page of our website for one year following the conclusion of the call. A telephonic replay of the call will also be available starting Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM ET through Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET by dialing 1-844-512-2921 (Toll Free) or 1-412-317-6671 (Toll/International) using conference ID 13759141.

ABOUT URBAN EDGE PROPERTIES

Urban Edge Properties is a NYSE listed real estate investment trust focused on owning, managing, acquiring, developing, and redeveloping retail real estate in urban communities, primarily in the Washington, D.C. to Boston corridor. Urban Edge owns 73 properties totaling 17.2 million square feet of gross leasable area.

Getting big returns from financial portfolios, whether through stocks, bonds, ETFs, other securities, or a combination of all, is an investor's dream. However, when you're an income investor, your primary focus is generating consistent cash flow from each of your liquid investments.

While cash flow can come from bond interest or interest from other types of investments, income investors hone in on dividends. A dividend is the distribution of a company's earnings paid out to shareholders; it's often viewed by its dividend yield, a metric that measures a dividend as a percent of the current stock price. Many academic studies show that dividends make up large portions of long-term returns, and in many cases, dividend contributions surpass one-third of total returns.

Urban Edge Properties (UE - Free Report) is headquartered in New York, and is in the Finance sector. The stock has seen a price change of 3.65% since the start of the year. The real estate investment trust that owns and manages shopping centers is paying out a dividend of $0.21 per share at the moment, with a dividend yield of 4.22% compared to the REIT and Equity Trust - Retail industry's yield of 4.24% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.47%.

Looking at dividend growth, the company's current annualized dividend of $0.84 is up 10.5% from last year. Over the last 5 years, Urban Edge Properties has increased its dividend 4 times on a year-over-year basis for an average annual increase of 11.53%. Looking ahead, future dividend growth will be dependent on earnings growth and payout ratio, which is the proportion of a company's annual earnings per share that it pays out as a dividend. Urban Edge Properties's current payout ratio is 53%, meaning it paid out 53% of its trailing 12-month EPS as dividend.

Looking at this fiscal year, UE expects solid earnings growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 is $1.49 per share, representing a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 4.20%.

From greatly improving stock investing profits and reducing overall portfolio risk to providing tax advantages, investors like dividends for a variety of different reasons. It's important to keep in mind that not all companies provide a quarterly payout.

Big, established firms that have more secure profits are often seen as the best dividend options, but it's fairly uncommon to see high-growth businesses or tech start-ups offer their stockholders a dividend. Income investors must be conscious of the fact that high-yielding stocks tend to struggle during periods of rising interest rates. With that in mind, UE is a compelling investment opportunity. Not only is it a strong dividend play, but the stock currently sits at a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Urban Edge Properties Reports First Quarter 2026 Results.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Urban Edge Properties Declares a Quarterly Common Dividend of $0.21 per Share.

Urban Edge Properties is a shopping center REIT focused on densely populated Northeast U.S. markets with limited new supply. UE is driven by strong leasing fundamentals and a robust signed-not-open pipeline. Management guides for 5% FFO per share growth in 2026, supported by embedded rent escalators and redevelopment opportunities.

, /PRNewswire/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. ("Harley-Davidson," "HDI," or the "Company") (NYSE: HOG) today reported first quarter 2026 results.

"We're pleased with our first quarter results, which reflect actions we've taken to drive demand and improve dealer health. We saw a 14% increase in retail performance in North America, which drove global retail sales growth of 8%, and achieved a 22% year-over-year reduction in global dealer inventories, as we continue to prioritize aligning wholesale with retail demand. We are energized by the positive early reception to our new RIDE marketing platform, and excited to activate against our new growth strategy, Back to the Bricks," said Artie Starrs, President and CEO, Harley-Davidson.

First Quarter 2026 Highlights and Results

North American retail motorcycle sales of 23,803 units, up 14% vs. prior year Global retail motorcycle sales of 33,507 units, up 8% vs. prior year Global dealer inventory levels of new motorcycles ended Q1 '26 down 22% vs. end Q1 '25 HDMC global motorcycle shipments of 37,295, down 3% vs. prior year HDMC revenue of $1.1 billion, down 2% vs. prior year HDFS operating income margin of 19.9% Delivered diluted EPS of $0.22 Repurchased $128 million of shares (6.6 million shares) on a discretionary basis Incurred $15 million of costs related to strategic changes, including termination benefits and other restructuring charges First Quarter 2026 Results

Harley-Davidson, Inc. Consolidated Financial Results 

$ in millions (except EPS)

1st quarter

2026

2025

Change

Revenue

$1,173

$1,329

-12 %

Operating Income

$23

$160

-85 %

Net Income Attributable to HDI

$25

$133

-81 %

Diluted EPS

$0.22

$1.07

-79 %

Consolidated revenue in the first quarter was down 12 percent, driven largely by an HDFS revenue decrease of 54 percent.

Consolidated operating income in the first quarter was down 85 percent, driven by a decline of 84 percent at HDMC and a decline of 65 percent at HDFS. At the LiveWire segment, the operating loss improved by $2 million or 11 percent lower than the prior year's loss. Consolidated operating income margin in the first quarter was 2 percent relative to 12.1 percent in the first quarter a year ago.

Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) – Results

$ in millions

1st quarter

2026

2025

Change

Motorcycle Shipments (thousands)

37.3

38.6

-3 %

Revenue

$1,055

$1,082

-2 %

   Motorcycles

$836

$864

-3 %

   Parts & Accessories

$142

$143

-1 %

   Apparel

$57

$57

0 %

   Licensing

$6

$3

98 %

   Other

$14

$14

-2 %

Gross Margin

25.3 %

29.1 %

-3.9 pts.

Operating Income

$19

$116

-84 %

Operating Margin

1.8 %

10.8 %

-9.0 pts.

First quarter global motorcycle shipments decreased 3 percent, in-line with the Company's  expectations. Revenue was down 2 percent, driven by the decrease in wholesale shipments and the unfavorable net effect of global pricing and sales incentives, partially offset by favorable foreign currency. Parts & Accessories revenue was down 1 percent and Apparel revenue was flat.

First quarter gross margin was down 3.9 points due to the cost of new or increased tariffs, the net effect of global pricing and sales incentives, and unfavorable product mix. These factors were partially offset by a favorable court judgement resulting in a tariff refund in the EU and favorable foreign currency. First quarter operating income margin was down 9.0 points due to the factors above, while operating expense was $49 million higher than a year ago, including restructuring expense of $15 million in the quarter.

Harley-Davidson Retail Motorcycle Sales

Motorcycles (thousands)

1st quarter

2026

2025

Change

North America

23.8

20.9

14 %

EMEA

5.0

5.2

-3 %

Asia Pacific

4.0

4.4

-9 %

Latin America

0.7

0.6

21 %

Worldwide Total

33.5

31.0

8 %

Global retail motorcycle sales in the first quarter were up 8 percent versus the prior year, reflecting strong year-over-year results in North America and soft International results. North America retail experienced 16 percent growth in the US, driven by strength in the Touring category and a positive response to the new '26 motorcycle line-up. EMEA retail performance, down 3 percent, was characterized by modest growth in France, the Benelux region and the UK, while the German region experienced a decline. APAC retail performance, down 9 percent, saw declines in most major countries. Latin America retail was characterized by strong gains in Brazil and Mexico.

Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) – Results

$ in millions

1st quarter

2026

2025

Change

Revenue

$112

$245

-54 %

Operating Income

$22

$64

-65 %

In the first quarter, HDFS revenue was down 54 percent from prior year, driven by lower retail and wholesale finance receivables at lower yields. The decline in retail receivables was due to the sale of loan assets as part of the HDFS transaction, which took place in the second half of 2025. Other income within HDFS revenue was favorable year-over-year due to new servicing fees, investment income, and new gains on third party loan sales.

HDFS' operating income decreased by $42 million in the first quarter or 65 percent. On the expense side, both interest expense and the provision for credit loss expense were significantly lower, which was due to the decreased size of the retail loan portfolio and related debt on a year-over-year basis. Operating expenses decreased by $1 million versus prior year. Total quarter-end net finance receivables, including both retail and wholesale loans, were $2.4 billion, a 67 percent decline over the prior year primarily due to the HDFS transaction.

LiveWire – Results

$ in millions

1st quarter

2026

2025

Change

Revenue

$5

$3

87 %

Operating Loss

($18)

($20)

-11 %

LiveWire revenue for the first quarter increased by 87 percent. The revenue increase was due to higher electric motorcycle unit sales and higher STACYC electric bike sales. LiveWire's operating loss of $18 million in the first quarter compared to a loss of $20 million in the prior year period.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. Other Results – First Quarter 2026

Net cash use of $228 million from operating activities Effective tax rate was 43% Paid cash dividends of $22 million Repurchased $128 million of shares (6.6 million shares) on a discretionary basis, which included 3.1 million shares (valued at $65 million based on share price at delivery) pursuant to the accelerated share repurchase agreement entered into in Q4 '25 with no additional cash outflow in Q1 '26 and 3.5 million shares repurchased on a discretionary basis with an associated cash outflow of $63 million in Q1 '26 Cash and cash equivalents of $1.8 billion at the end of the quarter 2026 Financial Outlook
For the full year 2026, the Company reaffirms its guidance and continues to expect:

HDMC global motorcycle retail sales of 130,000 to 135,000 units HDMC global motorcycle wholesale shipments of 130,000 to 135,000 units HDMC operating income of a $40 million loss to a $10 million profit HDFS operating income of $45 to $60 million LiveWire operating loss of $70 to $80 million Harley-Davidson, Inc. capital investments of $175 to $200 million Company Background
Since 1903, Harley-Davidson has defined motorcycle culture by delivering a motorcycle lifestyle with distinctive and customizable motorcycles, parts & accessories, experiences, riding gear and apparel. What We Make: The World's Best Motorcycles. Period. Who We Serve: Motorcycle Riders Worldwide. Why We Do It: To Protect and Grow Motorcycle Culture. What We Stand For: Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness. Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and has a controlling interest in Harley-Davidson Financial Services and LiveWire Group, Inc. Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides financing, insurance and other programs to help get riders on the road. LiveWire is committed to developing the technology of the future and investing in the capabilities needed to lead the transformation of motorsports. Learn more at harley-davidson.com. 

Webcast
Harley-Davidson will discuss its financial results and outlook on an audio webcast at 8:00 a.m. CDT today. The webcast login and supporting slides can be accessed at http://investor.harley-davidson.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentations. The audio replay will be available by approximately 10:00 a.m. CDT.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
The Company intends that certain matters discussed in this press release are "forward-looking statements" intended to qualify for the safe harbor from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can generally be identified as such by reference to this footnote or because the context of the statement will include words such as the Company "believes," "anticipates," "expects," "plans," "projects," "may," "will," "estimates," "targets," "intends," "forecasts," "seeks," "sees," "should," "feels," "commits," "assumes," "envisions,"  or words of similar meaning. Similarly, statements that describe or refer to future expectations, future plans, strategies, objectives, outlooks, targets, guidance, commitments or goals are also forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, unfavorably or favorably, from those anticipated as of the date of this press release. Certain of such risks and uncertainties are described below. Shareholders, potential investors, and other readers are urged to consider these factors in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this press release are only made as of the date of this press release, and the Company disclaims any obligation to publicly update such forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.

Important factors that could affect future results and cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements include, among others, the Company's ability to: (a) execute its business plans and strategies, including the Company's new strategic plan announced in the second quarter of 2026, successfully execute its approach to a full enterprise economic model, and strengthen its existing businesses while allowing for growth; (b) manage supply chain and logistics issues, including without limitation quality issues, unexpected interruptions or price increases caused by supplier volatility, raw material shortages, inflation, war or other hostilities, including the conflict in Iran, or natural disasters and longer shipping times and increased logistics costs; (c) manage and predict the impact that new, reinstated or adjusted tariffs may have on the Company's ability to sell products domestically and internationally, and the cost of raw materials and components, including tariffs recently imposed or that may be imposed by the U.S. on foreign goods or rebalancing or other tariffs recently imposed or that may be imposed by foreign countries on U.S. goods; (d) accurately analyze, predict and react to changing market conditions, interest rates, and geopolitical environments, and successfully adjust to shifting global consumer needs and interests, including successfully realigning its product portfolio, which encompasses re-introducing the Sportster; (e) accurately predict the margins of its segments in light of, among other things, tariffs, rebalancing trade measures, inflation, foreign currency exchange rates, the cost associated with product development initiatives and the Company's complex global supply chain; (f) maintain and enhance the value of the Harley-Davidson brand, including detecting and mitigating or remediating the impact of activist collective actions, such as calls for boycotts and other brand-damaging behaviors that could harm the Company's brand or business; (g) manage through changes in general economic and business conditions, including changing capital, credit and retail markets, and the changing domestic and international political environments, including as a result of the conflict in Iran; (h) successfully access the capital and/or credit markets on terms that are acceptable to the Company and within its expectations; (i) successfully carry out its global manufacturing and assembly operations; (j) develop and introduce products, services and experiences on a timely basis that the market accepts, that enable the Company to generate desired sales levels and that provide the desired financial returns, including successfully implementing and executing plans to shift to a rider-centric portfolio that includes a focus on accessibility and customization and growing its Parts & Accessories and Motor Clothes and apparel businesses; (k) perform in a manner that enables the Company to benefit from market opportunities while competing against existing and new competitors; (l) successfully manage and reduce costs throughout the business; (m) manage the impact that prices for and supply of used motorcycles may have on its business, including on retail sales of new motorcycles; (n) prevent, detect and remediate any issues with its motorcycles or any issues associated with the design, manufacturing, or assembly processes to avoid delays in new model launches, recall campaigns, regulatory agency investigations, increased warranty costs or litigation and adverse effects on its reputation and brand strength, and carry out any product programs or recalls within expected costs and timing; (o) successfully manage and reduce costs throughout the business; (p) continue to develop the capabilities of its distributors and dealers, effectively implement changes relating to its  full enterprise economic model, and manage the risks that its dealers may have difficulty obtaining capital and managing through changing economic conditions and consumer demand; (q) realize the desired business benefits from LiveWire operating as a separate public company, which may be affected by, among other things: (i) the ability of LiveWire to execute its plans to develop, produce, market and sell its electric vehicles; (ii) the demand for and consumer willingness to adopt two- and three-wheeled electric vehicles; (iii) the ability of LiveWire to obtain sufficient funding from sources other than the Company to sustain its operations; and (iv) other risks and uncertainties indicated in documents filed with the SEC by the Company or LiveWire Group, Inc., including those risks and uncertainties noted in Risk Factors under Item 1.A of LiveWire Group Inc.'s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K; (r) manage the quality and regulatory non-compliance issues relating to the brake hose assemblies provided to the Company by Proterial Cable America, Inc. in a manner that avoids future quality or non-compliance issues and additional costs or recall expenses that are material; (s) maintain a productive relationship with Hero MotoCorp as a distributor and licensee of the Harley-Davidson brand name; (t) successfully maintain or achieve a manner in which to sell motorcycles in Europe, China, and the Company's Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries that does not subject its motorcycles to incremental tariffs; (u) manage its Thailand corporate and manufacturing operation in a manner that allows the Company to avail itself of preferential free trade agreements and duty rates, and sufficiently lower prices of its motorcycles in certain markets; (v) retain and attract talented employees and leadership and qualified and experienced independent directors for its Board of Directors, eliminate personnel duplication, inefficiencies and complexity throughout the organization, and successfully complete transitions of executives, and effectively manage the return to on-site work of Milwaukee-based corporate employees at specified Company facilities; (w) accurately estimate and adjust to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices; (x) manage the credit quality, the loan servicing and collection activities, and the recovery rates of Harley-Davidson Financial Services' loan portfolio; (y) prevent a ransomware attack or cybersecurity incidents and data privacy breaches and respond to related evolving regulatory requirements; (z) adjust to tax reform, healthcare inflation and reform and pension reform, and successfully estimate the impact of any such reform on the Company's business; (aa) manage through the effects inconsistent and unpredictable weather patterns may have on retail sales of motorcycles; (bb) implement and manage enterprise-wide information technology systems, including systems at its manufacturing facilities; (cc) manage changes, prepare for, and respond to evolving requirements in legislative and regulatory environments related to its products, services and operations, including increased environmental, safety, emissions or other regulations; (dd) manage its exposure to product liability claims in a manner that avoids or successfully mitigates the impact of substantial jury verdicts and manage exposure in commercial or contractual disputes; (ee) continue to manage the relationships and agreements that the Company has with its labor unions to help drive long-term competitiveness; (ff) realize the desired business benefits from KKR's and PIMCO's investments in Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc.; (gg) manage risks related to functions the Company outsources and the use of artificial intelligence by the Company and its vendors and suppliers; (hh) achieve anticipated results with respect to the Company's preowned motorcycle program, Harley-Davidson Certified, the Company's H-D1 Marketplace, and Apparel and Licensing; (ii) optimize capital allocation in light of the Company's capital allocation priorities; (jj) manage the Company's share repurchase strategy; (kk) manage issues related to climate change and related regulations; and (ll) realize the expected effects of the anticipated increase in Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc.'s retail finance receivable base on Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc.'s operating income.

The Company's ability to sell its motorcycles and related products and services and to meet its financial expectations also depends on the ability of the Company's dealers to sell its motorcycles and related products and services to retail customers. The Company depends on the capability and financial capacity of its dealers to develop and implement effective retail sales plans to create demand for the motorcycles and related products and services they purchase from the Company. In addition, the Company's dealers and distributors may experience difficulties in operating their businesses and selling Harley-Davidson motorcycles and related products and services as a result of weather, economic conditions, or other factors.

Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc.'s retail credit losses will continue to change over time due to changing consumer credit behavior, macroeconomic conditions including the impact of inflation and Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc.'s efforts to increase prudently structured loan approvals to sub-prime borrowers. In addition, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc.'s efforts to adjust underwriting criteria based on market and economic conditions, and actions that the Company has taken and could take that impact motorcycle values, may impact Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc.'s retail credit losses.

The Company's operations, demand for its products, and its liquidity could be adversely impacted by changes in tariffs, inflation, work stoppages, facility closures, strikes, natural causes, widespread infectious disease, terrorism, war or other hostilities, including the conflict in Iran, or other factors. Refer to "Risk Factors" under Item 1.A of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the SEC on February 26, 2026, for a discussion of additional risk factors and a more complete discussion of some of the cautionary statements noted above.

### (HOG-Earnings)

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations

(In thousands, except per share amounts)

(Unaudited)

Three months ended

March 31,

March 31,

2026

2025

HDMC revenue

$    1,055,471

$     1,081,505

Gross profit

266,989

315,244

Selling, administrative and engineering expense

248,064

198,972

  Operating income from HDMC

18,925

116,272

LiveWire revenue

5,116

2,743

Gross loss

(535)

(1,781)

Selling, administrative and engineering expense

17,136

18,028

  Operating loss from Livewire

(17,671)

(19,809)

HDFS revenue

111,944

244,961

HDFS expense

89,704

180,925

  Operating income from HDFS

22,240

64,036

Operating income

23,494

160,499

Other income, net

13,477

16,273

Investment income

8,696

8,941

Interest expense

(3,570)

(7,686)

Income before income taxes

42,097

178,027

Income tax provision

17,974

47,230

Net income

$         24,123

$        130,797

Less: Loss attributable to noncontrolling interests

650

2,307

Net income attributable to Harley-Davidson, Inc. 

$         24,773

$        133,104

Earnings per share:

  Basic

$              0.23

$               1.07

  Diluted

$              0.22

$               1.07

Weighted-average shares:

  Basic

110,016

123,947

  Diluted

110,768

124,724

Cash dividends per share:

$         0.1875

$           0.1800

LiveWire results presented in the Company's financial statements represent the LiveWire reportable segment as determined in accordance with Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 280 Segment Reporting which may differ from LiveWire Group, Inc. results.

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets

(In thousands)

(Unaudited)

(Unaudited)

March 31,

December 31,

March 31,

2026

2025

2025

ASSETS

Current assets:

    Cash and cash equivalents

1,805,068

3,091,744

1,931,175

    Accounts receivable, net

285,786

225,760

313,334

    Finance receivables held for sale, net

426,792

264,238

-

    Finance receivables held for investment, net

1,187,550

981,926

2,286,672

    Inventories, net

622,189

730,898

712,312

    Restricted cash

-

-

150,132

    Other current assets

415,301

292,383

253,687

4,742,686

5,586,949

5,647,312

Finance receivables held for investment, net

827,061

719,060

5,112,935

Other long-term assets

1,675,914

1,738,806

1,622,134

$     7,245,661

$    8,044,815

$   12,382,381

LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY

Current liabilities:

    Accounts payable and accrued liabilities

$     1,232,554

$    1,061,194

$     1,105,802

    Short-term deposits, net

248,642

280,095

178,376

    Short-term debt

498,685

497,776

498,500

    Current portion of long-term debt, net

498,246

819,629

1,839,100

2,478,127

2,658,694

3,621,778

Long-term debt, net

1,134,865

1,649,612

4,963,261

Other long-term liabilities

552,534

579,659

623,652

Shareholders' equity

3,080,135

3,156,850

3,173,690

$     7,245,661

$    8,044,815

$   12,382,381

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows

 (In thousands)

(Unaudited)

Three months ended

March 31,

March 31,

2026

2025

Net cash (used) provided by operating activities

$      (228,021)

$        141,534

Cash flows from investing activities:

  Capital expenditures

(31,792)

(29,973)

  Finance receivables held for investment, net

(122,138)

91,197

  Collection from retained securitization beneficial interests

10,261

-

  Proceeds from derivative instruments

51,574

-

  Other investing activities

91

171

Net cash (used) provided by investing activities

(92,004)

61,395

Cash flows from financing activities:

  Proceeds from issuance of medium-term notes

-

647,088

  Repayments of medium-term notes

(810,950)

-

  Repayments of securitization debt

-

(292,671)

  Net increase (decrease) in unsecured commercial paper

2,364

(140,778)

  Borrowings of asset-backed commercial paper

-

155,000

  Repayments of asset-backed commercial paper

-

(65,004)

  Net decrease in deposits

(59,193)

(37,439)

  Dividends paid

(21,540)

(22,921)

  Repurchase of common stock

(70,018)

(93,095)

  Other financing activities

-

5

Net cash (used) provided by financing activities

(959,337)

150,185

Effect of exchange rate changes on cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash

(7,314)

3,299

Net (decrease) increase in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash

$  (1,286,676)

$        356,413

Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash:

Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, beginning of period

$    3,091,744

$     1,740,854

Net (decrease) increase in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash

(1,286,676)

356,413

Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, end of period

$    1,805,068

$     2,097,267

Reconciliation of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash on the Consolidated balance sheets to the Consolidated statements of cash flows: 

  Cash and cash equivalents

$    1,805,068

$     1,931,175

  Restricted cash

-

150,132

  Restricted cash included in Other long-term assets

-

15,960

  Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash per the Consolidated statements of cash flows

$    1,805,068

$     2,097,267

HDMC Revenue and Motorcycle Shipment Data

(Unaudited)

Three months ended

March 31,

March 31,

2026

2025

HDMC REVENUE (in thousands)

  Motorcycles

$       836,294

$        863,863

  Parts and accessories

142,243

143,433

  Apparel

57,313

57,322

  Licensing

6,048

3,058

  Other

13,573

13,829

$    1,055,471

$     1,081,505

HDMC U.S. MOTORCYCLE SHIPMENTS

23,884

24,865

HDMC WORLDWIDE MOTORCYCLE SHIPMENTS

    Grand American Touring(a)

21,520

23,678

    Cruiser

10,659

11,860

    Sport and Lightweight

3,731

2,108

    Adventure Touring

1,385

955

37,295

38,601

(a) Includes Trike

LiveWire Motorcycle Shipments

91

33

HDMC Gross Profit

(Unaudited)

The estimated impact of significant factors affecting the comparability of gross profit from the first quarter of 2025 to the
first quarter of 2026 were as follows (in millions):

2025 gross profit

$               315

Volume

(10)

Price and sales incentives

(22)

Foreign currency exchange rates and hedging

14

Shipment mix

(21)

Raw material prices

1

Manufacturing and other costs

(10)

(48)

2026 gross profit

$               267

HDFS Finance Receivables Allowance for Credit Losses

(Unaudited)

Three months ended

March 31,

March 31,

2026

2025

Balance, beginning of period

$            2,235

$        401,183

Provision for credit losses

13,153

53,334

Charge-offs, net of recoveries

6,208

(61,339)

Balance, end of period

$         21,596

$        393,178

Worldwide Retail Sales of Harley-Davidson Motorcycles(a)

(Unaudited)

Three months ended

March 31,

March 31,

2026

2025

United States

22,245

19,207

Canada

1,558

1,685

Total North America

23,803

20,892

EMEA

5,034

5,175

Asia Pacific

3,967

4,362

Latin America

703

581

      Total worldwide retail sales

33,507

31,010

(a) Data source for retail sales figures shown above is new sales warranty and registration information provided by dealers and compiled by the Company. The Company must rely on information that its dealers supply concerning new retail sales, and the Company does not regularly verify the information that its dealers supply. This information is subject to revision.

SOURCE Harley-Davidson, Inc.

The motorcycle company's new chief executive, Artie Starrs, hopes to increase sales with lower-priced bikes.

The motorcycle maker reported earnings per share of 22 cents from sales of $1.2 billion. Wall Street was looking for earnings per share of 22 cents from sales of $1 billion.

Key Takeaways HOG Q1 EPS fell to 22 cents, missing estimates as operating margin slid to 2% from 12.1%.Harley-Davidson says new or higher tariffs, incentives and mix drove HDMC margin drop to 1.8%.HOG reaffirmed 2026 outlook. Retail and shipments expected to be 130k-135k & HDMC op income -$40M to $10M. Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of 22 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents by 36.1%. Earnings also dropped 79% from $1.07 a year ago.

Profitability deteriorated sharply despite the revenue beat. Harley-Davidson posted consolidated operating income of $23 million versus $160 million in the year-ago quarter, pushing operating margin down to 2% from 12.1%. Net income attributable to the company fell to $25 million from $133 million, reflecting pressure across key segments.

Revenues at Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) came in at $1,055 million, which declined 2% year over year but topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $958 million by 10.7%. The quarter featured a 22% year-over-year reduction in global dealer inventory of new motorcycles, underscoring the company’s push to better align wholesale with retail demand.

HOG currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Harley-Davidson Sees Retail Growth Across Key MarketsDemand indicators were better than the income statement suggests. Global retail motorcycle sales rose 8% year over year to 33,507 units, led by North America, where retail sales increased 14% to 23,803 units. The company cited strength in the United States, particularly in the Touring category, along with a favorable response to the 2026 motorcycle lineup.

Outside North America, results were softer. EMEA retail sales declined 3% year over year, while Asia Pacific fell 9%. Latin America was a bright spot, with retail up 21%, supported by gains in Brazil and Mexico. Management also pointed to encouraging early reception of its new RIDE marketing platform and said it is preparing to activate its “Back to the Bricks” growth strategy.

HOG’s HDMC Margin Hit by Tariffs and IncentivesRevenues from HDMC decreased 2% to $1,055 million as global motorcycle shipments slipped 3% to 37,295 units. Within HDMC, motorcycle revenues fell 3% to $836 million, parts and accessories dipped 1% to $142 million, and apparel was flat at $57 million, reflecting a mixed top-line backdrop.

The bigger issue was margin compression. HDMC's gross margin declined to 25.3% from 29.1% and its operating margin dropped to 1.8% from 10.8% a year earlier. The company attributed the deterioration to the cost of new or increased tariffs, the net effect of global pricing actions and sales incentives, and unfavorable product mix, partially offset by favorable foreign currency and an EU-related tariff refund tied to a favorable court judgment. Operating expenses rose $49 million year over year, including the $15 million restructuring expense recorded during the quarter.

Harley-Davidson Financial Services Revenues DropHDFS posted revenues of $112 million, down 54% year over year, while operating income declined 65% to $22 million.

The company linked the revenue decline to lower retail and wholesale finance receivables at lower yields. It also noted that the reduction in retail receivables reflected loan-asset sales tied to the HDFS transaction completed in the second half of 2025. Offsetting items included improved “other income” from new servicing fees, investment income and gains on third-party loan sales. Total quarter-end net finance receivables (retail plus wholesale) were $2.4 billion, down 67% from the prior year.

HOG’s LiveWire Sees Improved ResultsIn the quarter under review, LiveWire revenues rose to $5 million from $3 million, an 87% increase, driven by higher electric motorcycle unit sales and increased STACYC electric balance bike sales.

LiveWire’s operating loss narrowed to $18 million from $20 million a year ago, reflecting better gross margin on higher revenues and lower selling, administrative and engineering expenses.

HOG’s Financial Position & Capital ReturnsIn the first quarter, selling, general and administrative expenses from the HDMC unit increased to $248.1 million from $199 million in the year-ago quarter. Harley-Davidson had cash and cash equivalents of $1.8 billion as of March 31, 2026. The long-term debt decreased to $1.13 billion from $1.65 million recorded as of Dec. 31, 2025. Net cash used in operating activities was $228 million.

The company paid dividends of 22 million and repurchased $128 million worth of shares on a discretionary basis in the first quarter of 2025.

HOG Reaffirms 2026 GuidanceFor full-year 2026, Harley-Davidson reaffirmed expectations for HDMC global motorcycle retail sales of 130,000-135,000 units and wholesale shipments of 130,000-135,000 units. It continues to project HDMC operating income ranging from a $40 million loss to a $10 million profit, HDFS operating income of $45-$60 million and LiveWire operating loss of $70-$80 million, with capital investments of $175-$200 million.

Key Releases From the Auto SpaceGeneral Motors (GM - Free Report) delivered first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.70 per share, which rose 33% year over year and topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.61. Revenues of $43.62 billion slipped 0.9% year over year and missed the consensus mark of $43.94 billion by 0.7%. Management increased full-year 2026 EBIT-adjusted guidance to $13.5-$15.5 billion (versus $13-$15 billion guided earlier) and lifted its adjusted earnings outlook to $11.50-$13.50 per share (compared with the prior forecast of $11-$13 per share). General Motors now expects gross tariff costs of $2.5-$3.5 billion in 2026, down from the prior forecast of $3-$4 billion, while maintaining its adjusted automotive free cash flow target of $9-$11 billion. 

Ford (F - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of 66 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents and increased from 14 cents in the prior-year quarter. Ford’s total automotive revenues rose 6.4% year over year to $39.82 billion, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $39.34 billion by 1.21%. The company’s consolidated first-quarter revenues came in at $43.3 billion, up 6.4% year over year. Ford raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5-$10.5 billion, up from $8-$10 billion. It reiterated its adjusted free cash flow outlook at $5-$6 billion.

Harley Davidson (HOG) is at a pivotal turnaround moment, with operational synergies and cultural resurgence driving a bullish long-term outlook. HOG's Q1 showed real demand growth, dealer network revitalization, and a shift toward a rider-first, culture-centric strategy to reclaim relevance and profitability. The equity is moderately undervalued, with a bull-case 2-year CAGR of 35–40% and a 12-month price target of $31.50, but downside risk remains significant.

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MILWAUKEE, June 2, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (the "Company") (NYSE: HOG) announced today that it will present at Baird 2026 Global Consumer, Technology & Services Conference at the InterContinental New York Barclay in New York, New York on Wednesday, June 3, 2026. President and Chief Executive Officer Artie Starrs and Head of Investor Relations Shawn Collins will present in one-on-one and group sessions and answer questions about the Company.

Company Background 
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. 

### (HOG-OTHER)

SOURCE Harley-Davidson, Inc.

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Harley-Davidson (HOG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Harley-Davidson due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Harley-Davidson, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

HOG Q1 Earnings Miss EstimatesHarley-Davidson reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of 22 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents by 36.1%. Earnings also dropped 79% from $1.07 a year ago.

Profitability deteriorated sharply despite the revenue beat. Harley-Davidson posted consolidated operating income of $23 million versus $160 million in the year-ago quarter, pushing operating margin down to 2% from 12.1%. Net income attributable to the company fell to $25 million from $133 million, reflecting pressure across key segments.

Revenues at Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) came in at $1,055 million, which declined 2% year over year but topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $958 million by 10.7%. The quarter featured a 22% year-over-year reduction in global dealer inventory of new motorcycles, underscoring the company’s push to better align wholesale with retail demand.

Harley-Davidson Sees Retail Growth Across Key MarketsDemand indicators were better than the income statement suggests. Global retail motorcycle sales rose 8% year over year to 33,507 units, led by North America, where retail sales increased 14% to 23,803 units. The company cited strength in the United States, particularly in the Touring category, along with a favorable response to the 2026 motorcycle lineup.

Outside North America, results were softer. EMEA retail sales declined 3% year over year, while Asia Pacific fell 9%. Latin America was a bright spot, with retail up 21%, supported by gains in Brazil and Mexico. Management also pointed to encouraging early reception of its new RIDE marketing platform and said it is preparing to activate its “Back to the Bricks” growth strategy.

HOG’s HDMC Margin Hit by Tariffs and IncentivesRevenues from HDMC decreased 2% to $1,055 million as global motorcycle shipments slipped 3% to 37,295 units. Within HDMC, motorcycle revenues fell 3% to $836 million, parts and accessories dipped 1% to $142 million, and apparel was flat at $57 million, reflecting a mixed top-line backdrop.

The bigger issue was margin compression. HDMC's gross margin declined to 25.3% from 29.1% and its operating margin dropped to 1.8% from 10.8% a year earlier. The company attributed the deterioration to the cost of new or increased tariffs, the net effect of global pricing actions and sales incentives, and unfavorable product mix, partially offset by favorable foreign currency and an EU-related tariff refund tied to a favorable court judgment. Operating expenses rose $49 million year over year, including the $15 million restructuring expense recorded during the quarter.

Harley-Davidson Financial Services Revenues DropHDFS posted revenues of $112 million, down 54% year over year, while operating income declined 65% to $22 million.

The company linked the revenue decline to lower retail and wholesale finance receivables at lower yields. It also noted that the reduction in retail receivables reflected loan-asset sales tied to the HDFS transaction completed in the second half of 2025. Offsetting items included improved “other income” from new servicing fees, investment income and gains on third-party loan sales. Total quarter-end net finance receivables (retail plus wholesale) were $2.4 billion, down 67% from the prior year.

HOG’s LiveWire Sees Improved ResultsIn the quarter under review, LiveWire revenues rose to $5 million from $3 million, an 87% increase, driven by higher electric motorcycle unit sales and increased STACYC electric balance bike sales.

LiveWire’s operating loss narrowed to $18 million from $20 million a year ago, reflecting better gross margin on higher revenues and lower selling, administrative and engineering expenses.

HOG’s Financial Position & Capital ReturnsIn the first quarter, selling, general and administrative expenses from the HDMC unit increased to $248.1 million from $199 million in the year-ago quarter. Harley-Davidson had cash and cash equivalents of $1.8 billion as of March 31, 2026. The long-term debt decreased to $1.13 billion from $1.65 million recorded as of Dec. 31, 2025. Net cash used in operating activities was $228 million.

The company paid dividends of 22 million and repurchased $128 million worth of shares on a discretionary basis in the first quarter of 2025.

HOG Reaffirms 2026 GuidanceFor full-year 2026, Harley-Davidson reaffirmed expectations for HDMC global motorcycle retail sales of 130,000-135,000 units and wholesale shipments of 130,000-135,000 units. It continues to project HDMC operating income ranging from a $40 million loss to a $10 million profit, HDFS operating income of $45-$60 million and LiveWire operating loss of $70-$80 million, with capital investments of $175-$200 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -16.23% due to these changes.

VGM ScoresAt this time, Harley-Davidson has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Harley-Davidson has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry PlayerHarley-Davidson belongs to the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry. Another stock from the same industry, General Motors (GM - Free Report) , has gained 3.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2026.

General Motors reported revenues of $43.62 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.9%. EPS of $3.70 for the same period compares with $2.78 a year ago.

General Motors is expected to post earnings of $3.12 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +23.3%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.7%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for General Motors. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.

On June 8, 2026, wealth manager Pine Valley Investments Ltd Liability Co disclosed a buy of 1,133,505 Harley-Davidson shares, an estimated $22.22 million trade based on quarterly average pricing.

What happenedAccording to a June 8, 2026 SEC filing, Pine Valley Investments increased its position in Harley-Davidson (HOG +5.41%) by 1,133,505 shares. The estimated transaction value is $22.22 million, calculated using the average closing price during the first quarter of 2026. The quarter-end value of the stake rose by $22.61 million, which includes the impact of share purchases and price changes.

What else to knowPine Valley’s buy brought its Harley-Davidson stake to 2.11% of 13F assets under management as of March 31, 2026.Top five holdings after the filing:NYSEMKT:SPY: $92.51 million (4.5% of AUM)NASDAQ:AAPL: $65.52 million (3.2% of AUM)NASDAQ:NVDA: $60.82 million (3.0% of AUM)NASDAQ:GOOGL: $55.57 million (2.7% of AUM)As of June 5, 2026, Harley-Davidson shares were priced at $24.30, up 3.6% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 20.7 percentage points.Company/Etf overviewMetricValueRevenue (TTM)$4.47 billionNet income (TTM)$338.74 millionDividend yield2.93%Price (as of market close 6/5/26)$24.30Company/Etf snapshotManufactures and sells motorcycles, motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related financial services.Generates revenue through sales of motorcycles and related products, as well as financing and insurance services offered to dealers and retail customers.Serves retail customers globally through a network of independent dealers and e-commerce channels, with a primary focus on the United States and international expansion.Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles and related products, supported by a global dealer network and diversified revenue streams from both product sales and financial services. The company leverages its iconic brand and extensive distribution to maintain a strong presence in the recreational vehicle market.

What this transaction means for investorsWealth manager Pine Valley made a major investment in motorcycle manufacturer Harley Davidson. There is typically nothing quiet about a Harley Davidson, but on the stock markets, it has quietly generated outstanding returns in a choppy market.

Harley Davidson stock is up some 23% year-to-date, fueled by its “Back to the Bricks” growth strategy which involves reducing costs, strengthening its relationship with dealers, focusing on core strengths, regaining market share, and generating $350 million in EBITDA in 2027 for HDMC, its motorcycle division.

In fiscal 2026, HDMC is anticipating operating income of -$40 million to +$10 million, so $350 million in EBITDA is an ambitious goal for the company and new CEO Artie Starr, who came over last year from Topgolf.

The stock is cheap, trading at 12 times earnings, but the tepid outlook for this fiscal year leves the forward P/E ratio high at 76. Wall Street is not particularly bullish on it with a median price target of $26 per share, which would indicate about 4% upside.

The management at Pine Valley, however, may be looking down the road and likes what it sees with the turnaround plan. Investors may want to move cautiously.

Dave Kovaleski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Harley-Davidson. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.