Momentum investing is essentially an exception to the idea of "buying low and selling high." Investors following this style of investing are usually not interested in betting on cheap stocks and waiting long for them to recover. Instead, they believe that "buying high and selling higher" is the way to make far more money in lesser time.
Everyone likes betting on fast-moving trending stocks, but it isn't easy to determine the right entry point. These stocks often lose momentum when their future growth potential fails to justify their swelled-up valuation. In that phase, investors find themselves invested in shares that have limited to no upside or even a downside. So, betting on a stock just by looking at the traditional momentum parameters could be risky at times.
It could be safer to invest in bargain stocks that have been witnessing price momentum recently. While the Zacks Momentum Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to trends in a stock's price or earnings, is pretty useful in identifying great momentum stocks, our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen comes handy in spotting fast-moving stocks that are still attractively priced.
There are several stocks that currently pass through the screen and ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC - Free Report) is one of them. Here are the key reasons why this stock is a great candidate.
A dash of recent price momentum reflects growing interest of investors in a stock. With a four-week price change of 13.3%, the stock of this company is certainly well-positioned in this regard.
While any stock can see a spike in price for a short period, it takes a real momentum player to deliver positive returns for a longer time frame. ACDC meets this criterion too, as the stock gained 21.8% over the past 12 weeks.
Moreover, the momentum for ACDC is fast paced, as the stock currently has a beta of 1.51. This indicates that the stock moves 51% higher than the market in either direction.
Given this price performance, it is no surprise that ACDC has a Momentum Score of A, which indicates that this is the right time to enter the stock to take advantage of the momentum with the highest probability of success.
In addition to a favorable Momentum Score, an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has helped ACDC earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Our research shows that the momentum-effect is quite strong among Zacks Rank #1 and #2 stocks. That's because as covering analysts raise their earnings estimates for a stock, more and more investors take an interest in it, helping its price race to keep up. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Most importantly, despite possessing fast-paced momentum features, ACDC is trading at a reasonable valuation. In terms of Price-to-Sales ratio, which is considered as one of the best valuation metrics, the stock looks quite cheap now. ACDC is currently trading at 0.67 times its sales. In other words, investors need to pay only 67 cents for each dollar of sales.
So, ACDC appears to have plenty of room to run, and that too at a fast pace.
In addition to ACDC, there are several other stocks that currently pass through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen. You may consider investing in them and start looking for the newest stocks that fit these criteria.
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After more than a decade of disciplined budgeting and limited capital expenditure, oil and gas companies are opening their wallets again. The commodity supercycle of the mid-2000s left the industry overextended, with bloated deepwater projects, uneconomic oil sands expansions, and Arctic ventures that never panned out. When crude collapsed in 2014, the resulting hangover ushered in a structural shift toward capital restraint, shareholder returns, and ESG-driven caution that persisted for the better part of a decade.
That era appears to be ending. With oil prices hovering near $100 and no near-term catalyst for a meaningful pullback, producers are doing something they haven't done in years, investing aggressively in new production. And the biggest beneficiaries aren't the producers themselves, but the companies that supply the rigs, the frac crews, and the subsea equipment that make drilling possible.
Among this group, Valaris ((VAL - Free Report) ), ProFrac Holding Corp. ((ACDC - Free Report) ) andHelix Energy Solutions Group ((HLX - Free Report) ) stand out for strong momentum, earnings upgrades and considerable industry tailwinds.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Capex Cycle Is Turning and Oil Services Stocks LeadThe parallel to the technology sector is hard to ignore. After a brief discipline phase in 2022-2023 marked by layoffs and "year of efficiency" mantras, Big Tech found its permission slip in artificial intelligence and began spending at record levels. The Mag 7 are collectively guiding for over $680 billion in capex for 2026, up from roughly $400 billion in 2025, funding data centers, GPU clusters and AI infrastructure at a pace that would have been unthinkable two years ago.
To put that in perspective, total global oil and gas capital expenditure across all segments, upstream, midstream, and downstream is estimated at roughly $680 billion in 2026. Seven technology companies are now spending as much on AI infrastructure as the entire global energy industry spends to find, produce, transport, and refine the commodity that powers the physical economy. But we could see that already sizable energy capex rise, which would have a significant ripple effect on adjacent industries.
Oil and gas is getting its own version of a permission slip, not from a technological paradigm shift, but from geopolitics and supply scarcity. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026 and the subsequent regional escalation involving Gulf states has effectively removed roughly 20 million barrels per day of transit capacity from global markets. WTI crude surged from the mid-$50s at the start of the year to well above $100, and the disruption shows no signs of resolving quickly.
The response from producers has been swift. Diamondback Energy, the third-largest Permian operator, abandoned its capital discipline framework and began adding rigs and frac crews. ConocoPhillips raised capex guidance. Continental Resources reversed a planned 20% spending cut and instead increased caped 15% to 20%. These represent a potential strategic shift in how management teams are thinking about reinvestment.
Why Services and Drilling Stocks are Beating ProducersThe VanEck Oil Services ETF ((OIH - Free Report) ) is up nearly 60% year-to-date, almost doubling the return of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ((XLE - Free Report) ) at around 36%. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ((XOP - Free Report) ) sits in between at approximately 40%. This dispersion tells an important story about where the real leverage sits in a capex upcycle.
XLE is dominated by integrated majors, ExxonMobil and Chevron alone account for over 40% of the portfolio. These companies benefit from higher oil prices, but their earnings are diversified across refining, chemicals, and midstream operations. That diversification dampens their sensitivity to the upstream drilling cycle. XOP captures purer E&P exposure, but producers are price-takers and their fortunes rise and fall with the commodity itself.
Oil services companies operate differently. They get paid when producers drill, and they benefit from pricing power when capacity gets tight. SLB, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes, the core holdings of OIH, are picks-and-shovels plays on the drilling cycle. When every E&P in the Permian is scrambling to add rigs simultaneously, the companies that own those rigs and frac fleets can command premium pricing.
The Zacks Rank data confirms this dynamic from the bottom up. Scanning the Oils-Energy sector, the strongest momentum and earnings revision trends are concentrated in services and drilling names, such as Patterson-UTI, Valaris, Nabors, ProFrac, KLX Energy, and Helix Energy Solutions are all clustered near the top of the momentum rankings. The E&P companies sit in the middle tier, while the integrated majors, the names that dominate XLE, are near the bottom.
This isn't coincidental. It's the anatomy of a capex upcycle: the picks-and-shovels names lead on earnings revisions, the producers follow, and the diversified giants lag because their other business segments dilute the upstream signal.
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The Capacity Bottleneck Is RealWhat makes this cycle particularly compelling for services investors is the degree to which a decade of underinvestment has constrained supply-side capacity. Halliburton's CEO noted on the Q1 earnings call that "white space" in the frac calendar is "all but gone" for Q2, with an uptick in inbound calls for spot work. Transocean booked $1.6 billion in new contracts at roughly $410,000 average day rates, the highest in over a decade.
This is the natural consequence of years of capital starvation. Rig counts were slashed, fleets were cold-stacked, and equipment was decommissioned. Rebuilding that capacity takes time and capital, which means the companies that maintained their fleets through the downturn are now in a position to dictate terms.
The offshore market is telling a similar story. Deepwater commitments in Brazil's Santos Basin, Guyana's Stabroek block, and West Africa are not short-cycle spending decisions that can be reversed if oil pulls back. These are multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects with production timelines stretching decades. SLB's Production Systems segment grew 23% year-over-year in Q1, reflecting the durability of these long-cycle commitments.
ProFrac Holding Corp Shares Push New HighsProFrac is a pure-play completions company focused on hydraulic fracturing, proppant production, and related oilfield services. If there is a single company that captures the domestic land-based capex acceleration story, it's ACDC.
When US producers decide to drill more wells, they need frac crews to complete them, and ProFrac controls meaningful capacity in that market. The company has been through a difficult stretch with Q1 2026 revenue of $450 million was down meaningfully from the prior year, and the company posted a net loss of $83.5 million. But the quarter was marred by approximately $9 million in weather-related EBITDA headwinds, and importantly, the trajectory shifted meaningfully in late February as operator sentiment improved and activity levels accelerated.
CEO Ladd Wilkes made a point on the earnings call that should catch investors' attention, noting that current pricing remains at roughly 60% of where it was in 2022, indicating substantial room for price improvement as demand catches up to capacity. The company's frac calendar has continued to tighten from Q1 levels, with significant spot work converting to dedicated programs, particularly among private operators.
Despite the mixed results, the stock is up roughly 63% year-to-date and pushing new YTD highs today, reflecting the market's anticipation of the capex inflection and strong price momentum. But if pricing power continues to build as frac capacity tightens further, there is still meaningful earnings revision upside ahead. In the last 60 days, current year estimates are up 10% and next year 33%, giving the stock a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating.
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Valaris Stock Breaks OutValaris is one of the world's largest offshore contract drillers, operating a fleet of drillships, semisubmersibles, and modern jackups across deepwater and international markets. The company represents the long-cycle, offshore side of the capex thesis, a fundamentally different dynamic than the short-cycle shale plays that dominate domestic services.
The story here begins with the post-bankruptcy transformation. Valaris emerged from Chapter 11 in 2021 with a clean balance sheet, and the current offshore upcycle has placed the company squarely in the path of rising demand. Day rates have surged to decade-plus highs as deepwater operators in Brazil, Guyana, and West Africa commit to multi-year drilling programs that cannot be easily unwound.
Q1 2026 results showed revenue of $465 million, a top-line beat versus consensus expectations of $446 million, though revenue was down 25% year-over-year due to fewer operating days and the sale of several units. The EPS miss (-$0.24 versus expectations of -$0.12) reflected merger-related integration costs and elevated war-risk insurance expenses tied to the Middle East conflict. Revenue efficiency remained strong at 98%, indicating that when rigs are working, they're performing reliably. The company ended Q1 with $578 million in cash and a contract backlog of $4.9 billion.
The transformative catalyst for Valaris is the pending all-stock merger with Transocean, announced in February 2026. The combined entity will operate a fleet of 73 rigs, including 33 ultra-deepwater drillships, nine semisubmersibles, and 31 modern jackups, with a pro forma enterprise value of approximately $17 billion and a combined backlog approaching $11 billion, making the combined group the world's largest offshore drilling contractor by fleet size.
For investors, the Transocean combination creates a dominant offshore drilling platform positioned for a multi-year deepwater capex cycle. The combined fleet will have unmatched reach across the world's most attractive offshore basins, and the scale advantages should improve cash flow and accelerate deleveraging.
Earnings estimates have risen across the board, with current quarter forecasts jumping 37% in the last month and next quarter by 22% in the same period, giving it a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating. The stock also just broke out from a bullish consolidation, making it a worthy candidate for buying shares on a pullback.
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Helix Energy Solutions Group Approaches Breakout LevelHelix Energy Solutions occupies a unique niche in the offshore services value chain. While companies like Valaris drill the wells, Helix handles what comes after — well intervention, subsea robotics, and decommissioning services. It's the maintenance and lifecycle management side of offshore energy, which provides a more durable revenue stream than pure drilling activity.
The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $288 million, beating consensus estimates by a meaningful margin ($24 million above expectations). The quarter reflected expected seasonality, winter weather impacts the North Sea and Gulf of America shelf operations, and included costs from the successful workover of the company's Thunder Hawk field. Despite a net loss of $13 million, Helix generated $59 million in free cash flow and ended the quarter with $501 million in cash and $612 million in total liquidity against just $310 million in funded debt. That's a notably strong balance sheet for a company of this size.
Full-year 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $1.2-$1.4 billion and EBITDA of $230-$290 million, with the second and third quarters expected to be the most active. CEO Owen Kratz noted that recent commodity price increases have generated improved demand for the company's services, and government actions in the North Sea have provided a regulatory catalyst for decommissioning activity.
The strategic catalyst for Helix is the recently announced all-stock merger with Hornbeck Offshore Services, expected to close in the second half of 2026. The combination creates what both companies describe as a "premier integrated offshore services company," merging Helix's well intervention assets and subsea robotics with Hornbeck's high-specification offshore support vessel fleet. The combined entity will operate under the Hornbeck Offshore Services name (ticker: HOS) and is expected to generate $75 million or more in annual revenue and cost synergies within three years. Hornbeck shareholders will own approximately 55% of the combined company, with Helix shareholders holding 45%.
What makes Helix particularly interesting in the current environment is the diversification of its end markets. Beyond traditional oil and gas, the combined company will serve defense, renewables, and scientific research applications, providing some insulation from crude price volatility that pure drillers don't have.
Helix group has seen earnings estimates rise across timeframes, earning it a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating, while the stock simultaneously approaches a major breakout level.
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What Could Derail the ThesisThe bull case for oil services rests on the durability of the capex cycle. If crude prices remain elevated and producers continue to invest, services companies will continue to see strong demand and improving pricing power. But this thesis is not without risk.
The most obvious risk is a resolution to the Hormuz crisis. A ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough that reopens the Strait could take $20-30 off crude relatively quickly. The memory of $57 oil at the start of the year is fresh, and the Dallas Fed's latest energy survey showed plenty of E&P executives still skeptical that current prices will hold long enough to justify major investment commitments. If crude falls sharply, the capex acceleration could stall as quickly as it started, and services companies would give back their outperformance faster than XLE, given the same operating leverage that drove them higher.
The counterpoint is that a resolution doesn't necessarily mean immediate normalization. Oil analysts have estimated that for every day the Strait is closed, it takes roughly a week for the market to normalize when accounting for tanker fleet dislocations, port backlogs, insurance repricing, and the restart of shut-in production. The Strait has been effectively closed for 78 days, which points to approximately 78 weeks of normalization, stretching into November 2027. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser reinforced this on his Q1 earnings call, warning that even if Hormuz opened today, it would take months to rebalance, and if the reopening is delayed further, normalization extends well into 2027.
There's also a historical precedent worth noting: OIH's 10-year return is actually negative. The oil services sector has been one of the most brutal areas of the market over the past decade, and investors who overstayed their welcome in the 2014 cycle paid dearly for it. This is a sector where timing and discipline matter enormously.
That said, the structural underinvestment argument supports elevated prices even without the geopolitical premium. The world has not built enough production capacity to meet demand growth, and the capex required to close that gap flows directly through the services companies that sit at the center of this article.
It's also worth noting that two of the three companies profiled above. These aren't defensive consolidation plays to survive a downturn. These are deals structured around the belief that the demand environment has legs and that deepwater programs, well intervention backlogs, and offshore activity levels justify building larger, more capable platforms to capture multi-year revenue streams. When management teams and boards are betting their corporate structure on a cycle, that tells you something about their confidence in its durability.
For now, the earnings revision cycle is pointing clearly in one direction, and the Zacks Rank data is confirming it across the services and drilling complex. The tech sector found its reason to spend. Oil and gas may have found its own.
J.M. Smucker guided for sales to decline in the coming year as it leans away from price increases, looking instead to drive volume growth in key areas and improve profitability.
SJM Surges 9%, But Hostess Weakness Clouds OutlookJ. M. Smucker NYSE: SJM executives said the company is entering fiscal 2027 with momentum across key brands, while cautioning that commodity costs, tariffs and consumer behavior remain important variables in its outlook.
During the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings question-and-answer session, Chief Executive Officer Mark Smucker said the company had “a great quarter and a solid outlook” for the new fiscal year. He pointed to what he described as a complementary portfolio spanning coffee, frozen handhelds and spreads, pet foods and sweet baked snacks.
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5 Under-the-Radar Consumer Staples Stocks With Pricing PowerChief Financial Officer Tucker Marshall said the company’s full-year outlook includes mid-single-digit percentage deflation, driven largely by green coffee. Excluding green coffee and tariffs, Smucker expects low-single-digit cost inflation across the rest of its portfolio, primarily in packaging, ingredients and transportation.
Marshall said the outlook reflects the company’s current best estimate, while noting that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could affect cost assumptions depending on their duration. He said Smucker expects to manage additional inflation through procurement, hedging, productivity savings and pricing “when and where appropriate.”
Coffee Deflation Expected to Support Profit Recovery The 4 Dividend Stocks Smart Money Is Grabbing Right NowCoffee was a major focus of the call, as executives discussed the expected impact of lower green coffee costs. Smucker said the coffee category remains attractive and that the company continues to lead across segments and the value spectrum. He highlighted Café Bustelo as “a very significant growth brand” with more than $500 million in sales.
Smucker said the company expects profit improvement in coffee as the commodity environment moderates. However, he said the company is being prudent in forecasting volume response to lower prices because consumers remain cautious.
“Coffee is a pass-through category,” Smucker said, adding that the company passes costs through to customers and consumers “up and down” in a measured way. He said the company is currently focused more on trade spending, and that list price reductions would depend on when Smucker takes physical inventory of lower-cost coffee.
Marshall said the company expects its first quarter to be roughly flat from a net sales perspective, with green coffee deflation beginning to affect results more meaningfully in the second quarter and beyond. He also confirmed that the expected improvement in retail coffee margins into the high-20% range is largely a second-through-fourth-quarter event.
Uncrustables Remains a Growth Driver Executives said the Uncrustables brand remains one of Smucker’s strongest growth platforms. Mark Smucker said the brand has reached $1 billion in sales and continues to benefit from its position in the frozen category, new formats, new occasions and innovation such as higher-protein morning offerings and “fridge-friendly” products.
Smucker said Uncrustables is not expected to continue growing at a double-digit rate, but the company still sees runway through distribution, household penetration, innovation and brand-building investments.
Marshall said Smucker expects mid-single-digit growth for Uncrustables in fiscal 2027, driven by volume and mix momentum and partially offset by strategic investments. He said roughly 75% of Uncrustables sales go through traditional U.S. retail, with the remaining 25% through away-from-home channels, where growth is expected to be slightly faster due to the smaller base and additional opportunities.
On the brand’s fridge-friendly format, Smucker said customer and consumer reception has been strong. He said all Uncrustables sandwiches are being transitioned to the fridge-friendly format, with the full portfolio expected to be converted around mid-summer.
Spreads, Pet and Sweet Baked Snacks Face Mixed Trends Smucker said the company is seeing some pressure in spreads, but framed the frozen handheld and spreads segment as a broader “peanut butter and jelly story.” He said the company chose not to repeat some prior promotional activity and is not seeing unusual competitive behavior in the category.
In peanut butter, Smucker said recent softness was partly tied to weather events and stock-up activity, rather than structural category weakness. He said the company remains well positioned with leadership in stabilized peanut butter and several leading natural and organic peanut butter brands. He also cited the launch of Jif Simply, a limited-ingredient stabilized peanut butter product.
In pet, Marshall said the company continues to see volume momentum across Meow Mix and Milk-Bone, but segment profit is expected to be pressured by inflation and marketing investments.
For Sweet Baked Snacks, executives said the focus remains on stabilizing the Hostess business and improving profitability. Smucker said the company has strengthened the portfolio through SKU rationalization and noted that donuts grew 13% and now represent about 40% of the portfolio. He said the breakfast occasion for Hostess continues to perform well.
Smucker also said the company completed its manufacturing footprint consolidation and recovered more quickly than expected from a fire in the prior quarter. He said it will take time for the business to return to top-line growth.
Marshall said Sweet Baked Snacks segment profit is expected to rise about 30% year over year, helped by cost control, trade execution and a list price increase across parts of the donuts portfolio.
Marketing, Tariffs and Cost Savings Marshall said Smucker remains committed to supporting its brands through marketing, with spending expected to be about 5.7% of net sales in the upcoming fiscal year. He said that represents an increase of about $30 million year over year and nearly $500 million in total spending, with investments expected to be fairly balanced throughout the year.
On tariffs, Marshall said Smucker experienced tariffs in fiscal 2026 and is assuming a 10% tariff level in its fiscal 2027 outlook. He said the company is pursuing refunds for previously paid tariffs, but the scope and timing remain uncertain, so no benefit has been included in guidance.
Marshall also discussed the company’s transformation office, saying Smucker targets gross cost savings equal to a couple points of revenue each fiscal year. He said future efforts will focus on supply chain areas he described as “buy, make, and move,” as well as the use of technology to improve the company’s cost structure.
Debt Reduction Remains a Priority Marshall said Smucker generated $1.2 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2026, allowing the company to repay more than $700 million of debt and pay just over $450 million in dividends. For fiscal 2027, he said the company remains committed to generating at least $1 billion in free cash flow, with capital expenditures expected to be roughly flat at $325 million.
The company plans to pay down an additional $500 million of debt, which Marshall said would support reducing leverage to around 3 times by the end of the fiscal year, down from about 3.8 times at the end of fiscal 2026.
Marshall said that as Smucker approaches its leverage objectives, it could consider additional cash deployment options, including potential share repurchases. However, he noted that the company’s current guidance does not include share repurchases.
In closing remarks, Mark Smucker said the company’s priorities are driving focused organic volume growth, improving profitability and earnings growth, and maintaining discipline in capital deployment.
About J. M. Smucker NYSE: SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company is a diversified food and beverage manufacturer and marketer known for a portfolio of well-established consumer brands. The company's main business activities include the production and distribution of fruit spreads, peanut butter, coffee and coffee filters, as well as pet food and pet snacks. Smucker's core product lines serve both retail and foodservice customers through grocery chains, mass merchandisers, club stores, convenience outlets and e-commerce channels.
Among its leading brands are Smucker's® fruit spreads, Jif® peanut butter, Folgers® and Dunkin'® coffees, and Café Bustelo® coffee.
This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
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Smucker (SJM - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.77 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.31 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +4.60%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this food maker would post earnings of $2.27 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.38, delivering a surprise of +4.85%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.
Smucker, which belongs to the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry, posted revenues of $2.27 billion for the quarter ended April 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.12%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $2.14 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Smucker shares have added about 4.1% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.2%.
What's Next for Smucker?While Smucker has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Smucker was unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $2.11 on $2.17 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $9.68 on $9.16 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Food - Miscellaneous is currently in the bottom 16% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
One other stock from the same industry, McCormick (MKC - Free Report) , is yet to report results for the quarter ended May 2026. The results are expected to be released on June 25.
This spices and seasonings company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.71 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +2.9%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
McCormick's revenues are expected to be $1.9 billion, up 14.5% from the year-ago quarter.
The The J. M. Smucker Company delivered strong Q4 results, beating EPS and revenue estimates, and reaffirmed a Buy rating based on valuation and technicals. SJM offers a high free cash flow yield (9%) and a 4.3% dividend, with shares trading over 20% below fair value using a conservative 13x P/E. FY 2027 guidance projects adjusted EPS of $9.75–$10.25 and $1.0 billion in free cash flow, despite a 3–4% expected sales dip.
Smucker (SJM - Free Report) reported $2.27 billion in revenue for the quarter ended April 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.8%. EPS of $2.77 for the same period compares to $2.31 a year ago.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of -0.12% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.27 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $2.65, the EPS surprise was +4.6%.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how Smucker performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Net Sales- Sweet Baked Snacks: $237.2 million compared to the $220.34 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of -5.5% year over year.Net Sales- U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads: $454.1 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $462.06 million.Net Sales- U.S. Retail Pet Foods: $401.7 million versus $394.41 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +1.6% change.Net Sales- International and Away From Home: $344.5 million versus $344.46 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +11.5% change.Net Sales- U.S. Retail Coffee: $830.6 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $848.73 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +12.5%.Segment Profit- Sweet Baked Snacks: $29 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $30.11 million.Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads: $124.7 million versus $99.03 million estimated by three analysts on average.Corporate administrative expenses: $-87.1 million compared to the $-78.67 million average estimate based on three analysts.Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Pet Foods: $125.7 million versus $115.04 million estimated by three analysts on average.Segment Profit- International and Away From Home: $75.8 million compared to the $77.92 million average estimate based on three analysts.Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Coffee: $214 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $211.29 million.View all Key Company Metrics for Smucker here>>>
Shares of Smucker have returned +2.6% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.2% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), indicating that it could underperform the broader market in the near term.
J M Smucker Co (NYSE:SJM) reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results on Tuesday, with its coffee business leading a broad earnings beat that sent shares up roughly 12%.
The Orrville, Ohio-based packaged food company posted net sales of $2.27 billion for the three months ended April 30, 2026, a 6% increase from the same period a year earlier and ahead of analyst estimates.
Adjusted earnings per share of $2.77 topped consensus by approximately 5% and marked a nearly 20% improvement year-over-year.
The US Retail Coffee segment was the standout performer, generating $830.6 million in sales, up 12% from the prior-year period, with Dunkin', Folgers and Cafe Bustelo all contributing to the gain. The Frozen Handheld and Spreads segment posted sales of $454.1 million, up 1% year-over-year, while segment profit surged 37%.
The company's Sweet Baked Snacks unit also surprised to the upside, with organic sales declining approximately 4% against analyst expectations of a roughly 12% decline.
Looking ahead, management guided fiscal 2027 net sales down 3% to 4%, citing green coffee deflation as a headwind to the Coffee segment. Gross margin is expected to expand approximately 300 basis points, and the company set a full-year adjusted EPS range of $9.75 to $10.25, with the midpoint of $10 above the prior consensus estimate of $9.86.
The company also said it expects to maintain its quarterly dividend of $1.10 per share and generate free cash flow of approximately $875 million in the coming fiscal year.
JM Smucker (SJM) shares moved sharply higher after the packaged food company delivered a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter and set its 2027 full-year profit
J. M. Smucker (SJM) shares have surged following the release of its Q4 (April) earnings report. The company exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations, wit
Key Takeaways SJM beat Q4 earnings expectations, but revenues came in light as volume/mix declined. SJM leaned on price hikes and lower marketing spend, even as tariffs and costs weighed on coffee. SJM guides FY27 sales lower on coffee resets, while Uncrustables, Cafe Bustelo and Meow Mix target growth. The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, wherein earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while net sales missed the same. The company delivered year-over-year growth in both top and bottom lines, supported by pricing actions, lower marketing expenses and broad-based segment profit growth. However, unfavorable volume/mix, mainly in coffee and sweet baked goods, remained a drag.
Management highlighted continued momentum across key growth platforms, including Uncrustables, Cafe Bustelo and Meow Mix. As the operating environment remains dynamic, the company is focused on driving organic volume growth, improving profitability, accelerating earnings growth and maintaining disciplined capital allocation.
SJM’s Quarterly Performance: Key Metrics & InsightsAdjusted earnings were $2.77 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65. Earnings increased 20% from the prior-year quarter, driven by higher pricing, increased adjusted gross profit, favorable SD&A expenses and lower interest expense.
Net sales were $2,268.1 million, up 6% year over year. However, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,271 million.
Comparable net sales, excluding prior-year divestiture-related sales and favorable foreign currency exchange, increased 6%. Comparable net sales growth reflected a 10-percentage-point benefit from net price realization, mainly driven by higher pricing for coffee and sweet baked goods. This was partly offset by a 4-percentage-point decline in volume/mix, primarily due to decreases in coffee and sweet baked goods, partially mitigated by growth in Uncrustables sandwiches.
Adjusted gross profit increased 4% year over year to $835.3 million. The upside reflected higher net price realization, partially offset by increased costs, including commodity costs and tariffs, along with unfavorable volume/mix. The company incurred approximately $23 million in tariff expenses in the quarter, mainly impacting the U.S. Retail Coffee segment.
Adjusted operating income rose 14% to $482.1 million, reflecting increased adjusted gross profit and favorable SD&A expenses. Lower marketing spend and distribution costs more than offset higher general and administrative expenses.
Decoding SJM’s Q4 Segmental PerformanceU.S. Retail Coffee: Net sales increased 12% to $830.6 million, driven by higher pricing across the portfolio. Net price realization contributed 21 percentage points, while volume/mix declined 8 percentage points due to decreases in Dunkin’ and Folgers, partly offset by growth in Café Bustelo. Segment profit increased 1% to $214 million, as pricing gains and lower marketing spend mostly offset higher costs, including commodity costs and tariffs, and unfavorable volume/mix.
U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads: Net sales rose 1% to $454.1 million. Net price realization added 2 percentage points, led by higher pricing for Uncrustables sandwiches and lower trade spend for Jif peanut butter. Volume/mix declined 2 percentage points, reflecting lower sales of Jif peanut butter and Smucker’s fruit spreads, partly offset by growth in Uncrustables. Segment profit surged 37% to $124.7 million, aided by lower marketing spend, higher pricing, lower costs, lapping equipment write-off charges and lower pre-production expenses tied to the new Uncrustables manufacturing facility.
U.S. Retail Pet Foods: Net sales increased 2% to $401.7 million. Pricing contributed 3 percentage points, driven by cat food and dog snacks, while volume/mix declined 2 percentage points due to weakness in dog snacks and the lapping of contract manufacturing sales related to divested pet food brands. Segment profit advanced 18% to $125.7 million, supported by higher pricing and lower marketing spend.
Sweet Baked Snacks: Net sales decreased 5% to $237.2 million. Excluding noncomparable sales related to the divestiture of certain Sweet Baked Snacks value brands, net sales declined 4%. Volume/mix reduced sales by 12 percentage points, mainly due to softness in snack cakes and breakfast products, partly offset by growth in donuts. Higher pricing contributed 8 percentage points. Segment profit rose 45% to $29 million, reflecting higher pricing and lower marketing expenses, partly offset by unfavorable volume/mix and higher costs. Management noted that the segment’s fourth-quarter sales exceeded expectations, aided by a faster-than-anticipated return to production following the February fire at its Emporia, KS, facility. Hostess Donettes grew net sales 13% in the quarter.
Away From Home: Net sales increased 15% to $228.3 million. Excluding favorable currency movements, sales rose 14%. Net price realization added 8 percentage points, mainly due to higher coffee pricing, while volume/mix contributed 6 percentage points, driven by increases in Uncrustables sandwiches, fruit spreads and coffee. Segment profit climbed 21% to $55.3 million, benefiting from higher pricing and favorable volume/mix, partly offset by higher costs. The company also began presenting Away From Home as a reportable segment, reflecting the business’s increased scale and strength.
SJM’s Financial Health SnapshotThe company ended fiscal 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $58.6 million and long-term debt, excluding the current portion, of roughly $6.4 billion. Total shareholders’ equity was $5.5 billion.
Cash provided by operating activities totaled $579.2 million in the quarter. Free cash flow was $483.9 million.
For fiscal 2026, free cash flow totaled about $1.16 billion. The company returned $464.7 million to shareholders through dividends and repaid $720 million of debt during the year.
What to Expect From SJM in FY27?Smucker issued its fiscal 2027 outlook. The company expects net sales to decline 3% to 4% year over year, primarily due to lower net price realization and unfavorable volume/mix. Management noted that the sales decline mainly reflects expectations for green coffee deflation, as the company plans to pass lower costs to consumers through pricing.
Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the band of $9.75-$10.25, implying year-over-year growth of 7-12%. The guidance assumes an adjusted gross profit margin of approximately 38%, SD&A expenses rising about 5%, net interest expense of nearly $345 million, an adjusted effective tax rate of 24.3% and weighted-average shares outstanding of 107 million.
Free cash flow is projected to be approximately $1 billion, with capital expenditures of $325 million. Management expects to pay down about $500 million of debt in fiscal 2027 and move toward a leverage ratio of around 3.0 net debt to adjusted EBITDA by the end of the fiscal year.
The company expects volume/mix growth across its key platforms — Uncrustables, Cafe Bustelo, Meow Mix and Milk-Bone — in fiscal 2027.
Shares of this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company have tumbled 6.2% over the past three months compared with the industry’s decline of 8.4%.
Better-Ranked Stocks to ConsiderThe Chef's Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF - Free Report) , a specialty food distributor serving restaurants, hotels and hospitality customers, carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Chef's Warehouse’s current financial-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 8.3% and 24.7%, respectively, from the prior-year reported levels. CHEF delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28.9%, on average.
B&G Foods (BGS - Free Report) is a branded packaged-food company that manufactures, markets and distributes a portfolio of shelf-stable and frozen food products. BGS carries a Zacks Rank #2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B&G Foods’ current and next financial-year earnings calls for year-over-year growth of 11.8% and 15.8%, respectively.
Nomad Foods (NOMD - Free Report) , a leading frozen-food company that owns brands such as Birds Eye, iglo and Findus, and sells frozen fish, vegetables, ready meals and other frozen foods across Europe, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. NOMD delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.6%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nomad Foods’ current fiscal-year sales and earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of almost 1% and 8%, respectively, though the consensus mark for the next fiscal-year sales and EPS indicates respective growth of 1.6% and 6.9%.
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52-Week Range$88.25▼
$119.39Dividend Yield3.80%
Price Target$121.13
The J.M. Smucker Company NYSE: SJM may not pay the highest-yielding dividend among S&P 500 companies, but it still offers a sweet payout and is on track for annual increases alongside share price appreciation. The net result will be a double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the subsequent few years, a tidy return for buy-and-hold investors.
While business is expected to contract in fiscal year 2027 (FY2027), worse than analysts expected, the company is in the midst of a transition that will lead to sustainable growth and wider margins. As it stands, earnings are expected to grow in FY2027, good news for the dividend and dividend investors.
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Smucker’s Business Transition Gains TractionSmuckers is undergoing a transformation focused on business rationalization, improved efficiency, and reinvigorated growth. Activist investor Elliott Management is assisting with guidance, information, and strategy planning.
The critical factor is the company's product portfolio, which is a hodgepodge of disparate categories, although most produced growth in fiscal Q4 2026 and strong, double-digit margins.
The primary culprits of underperformance are the Hostess brand and the Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which are contracting and dragging down overall growth. Margins have improved, but remain the weakest among the major segments. While no plans have been announced, investors should not be surprised to hear news that the company will divest the brand. Elliott Management is well-known for board shakeups, debt reduction, and divesting underperforming assets; so far, J.M. Smucker Co. has added two new board seats and is focusing on debt; a divestiture is a likely next move on Elliott’s agenda.
Smucker’s Reduces Debt: Improves Dividend ReliabilitySmucker’s is not out of the weeds, but it is making progress on its transition. The recent earnings results included significant balance sheet improvements, with highlights reflecting the impact of previous divestitures, improving cash flow, and debt reduction. Cash was flat compared to the prior year. Debt fell about 10%, and is expected to continue falling as cash flow improvements persist.
The dividend is reliable, at approximately 45% of the FY2027 earnings forecast, and offers a high yield near 4%. In the future, the company is likely to keep increasing the payout by mid-single digits, as it has over the trailing 5-year period, but there is an opportunity for accelerated growth. Improving operational quality and reinvigorated top-line growth are a recipe for accelerated distribution growth and buybacks. Buybacks are not a significant part of the thesis today, but they offset dilution and keep the share count steady, which is good enough for now.
SJM Stock Accumulated by Analysts and Institutions in 2026Analyst and institutional trends highlight the value and yield opportunity presented by SJM’s 2026 share price pullback. MarketBeat tracks 21 analysts rating the stock as a Hold with a 52% Buy-side bias. The group sees SJM as fairly valued in mid-June 2026, which aligns with two exponential moving averages (EMAs). Assuming the market sustains support at this level, the indication is that short- and medium-term traders will enter the mix, driving a bullish outlook for the stock.
Institutions, which collectively own more than 80% of the stock, are accumulating it. MarketBeat data reveal this group has been buying on balance for more than 12 consecutive quarters, at a pace of $1.6 to $1 on a trailing 12-month basis, and the trend continues into early Q2 2026. The likely outcome is that institutions will limit downside in the event of price corrections and underpin any rallies as they form.
Looking ahead, institutions may begin distributing shares when SJM reaches the top of its trading range, but that risk is diminished in FY2027. Improving business trends and an outlook for resumed growth suggest SJM’s market will reverse over time, potentially reaching a fresh long-term high in calendar 2027, if not by the end of this year.
The post-release price action looked favorable, with SJM stock rising by more than 10% in trading the day after the release. The MACD and stochastic suggest the rebound has only begun and has ample room to advance. The first target for price resistance is in the $110 to $112.50 range, aligning with a prior high and the long-term EMA. A move above it would signal a complete market reversal.
Should You Invest $1,000 in J. M. Smucker Right Now?Before you consider J. M. Smucker, you'll want to hear this.
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Shares of J.M. Smucker (SJM 1.00%) rose on Tuesday after the jam and jelly purveyor's profits topped Wall Street's forecast.
Image source: Getty Images.
Price hikes drove Smucker's earnings higher Smucker's net sales grew 6% year over year to $2.3 billion in its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter, which ended on April 30.
Price increases helped offset volume declines in Smucker's spreads and coffee segments, boosting the company's profit margins.
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Smucker's adjusted operating income jumped 14% to $59.7 million, as its margin improved to 21.3% from 19.7% in the prior-year quarter.
In turn, the maker of Jif peanut butter and Folgers coffee saw its adjusted earnings per share surge 20% to $2.77. That bested Wall Street's estimates, which had called for per-share profits of $2.64.
Better still, Smucker's cash generation continued to strengthen. Its free cash flow soared 42% to $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026. That enabled the company to pay $465 in dividends while also paying down $720 million in debt.
A sizable dividend yield for shareowners Smucker's sees its full-year adjusted earnings per share rising by 7% to 12% to between $9.75 and $10.25 in fiscal 2027.
"Looking ahead, our strategic priorities for the fiscal year are to drive focused organic volume growth across our key platforms, improve profitability and accelerate earnings growth, and maintain a disciplined approach to capital deployment," CEO Mark Smucker said.
Investors can count on that capital deployment to include sizable cash payments to shareholders. Even after today's gains, Smucker's stock yields a solid 3.9%.
Joe Tenebruso has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends J.M. Smucker. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Key Takeaways SJM guides fiscal 2027 net sales down 3%-4%, while adjusted EPS rises to $9.75-$10.25.SJM expects mid-single-digit declines in green coffee costs, with the biggest retail profit lift starting Q2.SJM: Uncrustables hit $1B sales; Sweet Baked Snacks profit rose 45% on pricing and lower ad spend. The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM - Free Report) used its fourth-quarter call to make a forward-looking case rather than dwell on headline results. Management pointed to stronger quarterly execution, but the main message was that fiscal 2027 will hinge on coffee cost relief, tighter portfolio management and disciplined capital deployment.
That framing mattered because Smucker is guiding to lower sales, even as adjusted earnings per share rise. Executives spent much of the call explaining why margin improvement, not top-line acceleration, is the clearest near-term objective.
SJM Sets a Margin-Led 2027 AgendaCEO Mark Smucker said the company enters fiscal 2027 with momentum, but he also laid out a narrow set of priorities: organic volume growth on key platforms, better profitability and disciplined capital deployment.
That backdrop helps explain the outlook. Smucker expects fiscal 2027 net sales to decline 3% to 4%, while adjusted earnings per share are projected at $9.75 to $10.25, above fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $9.15.
The company’s fourth quarter supported that message, with net sales up 6% to $2,268.1 million and adjusted EPS up 20% to $2.77. Adjusted EPS topped the $2.65 estimate by 4.5%. However, revenues marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,270.9 million, with a negative surprise of 0.10%.
Smucker Sees Coffee Turning From Drag to SupportCoffee was the clearest source of optimism on the call. Management said green coffee costs should decline at a mid-single-digit rate in fiscal 2027, creating room for profit recovery after a volatile inflationary stretch.
CFO Tucker Marshall said retail coffee profit should improve as moderating commodity costs flow through the business, with the largest benefit starting in the second quarter. Management also expects list price reductions to phase in only after lower-cost inventory reaches the system.
Analysts pressed on whether lower pricing should drive a stronger volume response. Mark Smucker answered with a notably cautious tone, saying the company is assuming prudent elasticities because consumers remain careful even as prices ease.
SJM Keeps Uncrustables at the CenterUncrustables remained the company’s standout growth platform. Management said the brand reached $1 billion in annual sales and should post mid-single-digit growth in fiscal 2027, led primarily by volume and mix.
Executives also highlighted the transition to a fridge-friendly format across the full Uncrustables lineup by mid-summer. Mark Smucker said retailer response has been strong, while Marshall noted that away-from-home channels, now about one-quarter of the business, should grow faster than U.S. retail from a smaller base.
That helps offset weaker trends elsewhere in frozen handheld and spreads. On the call, management acknowledged pressure in spreads and said the total segment will be down year over year as Uncrustables’ strength is weighed against softer peanut butter and fruit spreads.
Hostess Gives SJM a Profit TestSweet Baked Snacks was another focal point because investors remain focused on the Hostess integration and turnaround path. The quarter showed a 5% sales decline for the segment, but profit rose 45% as pricing and lower marketing spend helped margins recover.
Marshall said fiscal 2027 segment profit should grow about 30%, supported by improved costs, SKU rationalization, and selective pricing, especially in donuts. Mark Smucker said the business has been stabilized operationally, though it will take time before top-line growth returns.
That exchange stood out in Q&A because management did not overpromise on demand. Instead, executives emphasized better visibility, cleaner execution in trade and production, and a continued focus on profit before renewed sales expansion.
Smucker Balances Pet Pressure and Cost WorkPet food was a more mixed story. The fourth quarter delivered a 2% sales increase and an 18% profit increase, but management said inflation and higher brand spending will pressure profitability in fiscal 2027 despite volume momentum in Meow Mix and Milk-Bone.
Marshall described low-single-digit inflation outside coffee and tariffs, with pressure coming from packaging, ingredients, and transportation. He added that geopolitical tension in the Middle East remains part of the cost backdrop embedded in guidance.
To offset those costs, the company is leaning on its transformation office. Marshall said Smucker continues to target gross savings worth a couple of points of revenues annually, with current work centered on supply chain efficiency and technology.
SJM Sticks to Debt ReductionCapital allocation was another important call theme. Smucker generated $1.16 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2026 and expects about $1.0 billion in fiscal 2027, while capital spending is projected at $325 million.
Marshall said the first call on that cash remains debt reduction. The company plans another $500 million of paydown this year to move leverage to roughly 3 times by year-end, after finishing fiscal 2026 near 3.8 times.
Management also said tariff refunds are being pursued but were excluded from guidance because the timing and scope remain uncertain. That left the overall tone disciplined and conservative, even as quarterly performance improved.
Smucker Leaves Investors With a Narrow PlaybookBy the end of the call, management had drawn a clear map for fiscal 2027: let coffee margins recover, keep Uncrustables growing, improve Hostess profitability, and preserve balance-sheet flexibility. The emphasis was on control and sequencing rather than broad-based demand strength.
That posture made the call less about a single strong quarter and more about whether Smucker can convert cost relief and portfolio actions into steadier earnings growth while working through soft sales expectations.
Zacks Signals on SJMSJM currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), with Value, Growth, and VGM Score of B and a Momentum Score of C. Under the Zacks framework, Style Scores are most useful when paired with top-ranked stocks, while a Rank #4 points to weaker estimate revision trends despite respectable style characteristics.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
That makes the current setup mixed rather than outright supportive. The Style Scores suggest some favorable underlying traits, but the Zacks Rank remains the primary signal and can change as earnings estimate revisions move after the quarter.
The J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE:SJM) reported upbeat fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday.
Adjusted earnings came in at $2.77 per share, ahead of analysts' estimates of $2.64 per share. Net sales increased 6% year over year to $2.268 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $2.260 billion.
J.M. Smucker expects fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings of $9.75 to $10.25 per share, compared with analysts' estimates of $9.79 per share. The company forecast full-year sales of $8.689 billion to $8.779 billion, below the Wall Street consensus estimate of $9.107 billion.
Management expects net sales to decline 3% to 4% in fiscal 2027, citing lower pricing benefits and weaker volume and mix trends. The company also plans to reduce leverage to about three times EBITDA by fiscal 2027 through roughly $500 million in debt repayments. Management said future share repurchases could follow as leverage declines.
Smucker shares rose 0.1% to $112.50 in pre-market trading.
These analysts made changes to their price targets on Smucker following earnings announcement.
B of A Securities analyst Bryan Spillane maintained the stock with a Buy and raised the price target from $130 to $132. Morgan Stanley analyst Megan Alexander maintained the stock with an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price target from $106 to $110. Considering buying SJM stock? Here’s what analysts think:
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The J. M. Smucker Company remains a Buy after a strong earnings report, with a sustainable 4% dividend yield paid to wait for a potential recovery. SJM is working on its turnaround, targeting net debt/EBITDA of ~3x by fiscal year-end and maintaining robust free cash flow to support dividends and potential buybacks in the future. Management guides FY27 net sales to decline 3–4% but expects Adj. EPS of $9.75–$10.25, with $1B in free cash flow after $325M in CAPEX.
J. M. Smucker delivered a Q4 earnings beat, driving a sharp rebound from recent lows, but guidance for FY'27 is muted. SJM expects FY'27 revenues to decline 3-4% and FCF to drop by $200M, with flat EPS versus FY'25, reflecting limited growth prospects. Recent outperformance was driven by the coffee segment; underlying brand momentum remains relatively weak.
‘Sell at former tops' is an old Wall Street saying. It's not fiction. It refers to a common market dynamic.
Stocks tend to hit resistance when they reach levels that had previously been tops or peaks. As you can see on the chart, J.M. Smucker hit resistance yesterday around the $117 level.
Smucker’s Buyer's Remorse?There are people who bought shares around $117 who regretted their decision to do so when the price fell after. A number of them decided to hold onto their losing position.
Some of them also decided that if they could eventually do so, they would exit their positions at breakeven. So when the stock rallied back to around $117 yesterday, they placed sell orders. These orders formed resistance at the level again.
J.M. Smucker, also known as Smucker’s, is also overbought. This means the stock is above its typical trading range.
This dynamic will draw sellers into the market. They will be anticipating a reversal and move lower back into the range.
Their selling could put downward pressure on the shares.
Sometimes stocks reverse and head lower after they reach resistance. This happens when some of the sellers who created the resistance become impatient.
They are concerned that other sellers will undercut their prices. As a result, they reduce their offer prices. Other impatient sellers see this and reduce their prices as well. It results in a snowball effect that forces the shares into a downtrend.
Being overbought while at resistance can be a bearish dynamic. The rally in J.M. Smucker may be over.
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SG Americas Securities LLC boosted its position in Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG – Free Report) by 499.9% in the fourth quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 421,809 shares of the company’s stock after buying an additional 351,490 shares during the quarter. SG Americas Securities LLC owned approximately 0.43% of Northern Oil and Gas worth $9,056,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Several other hedge funds have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. AQR Capital Management LLC lifted its position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas by 55.1% during the 1st quarter. AQR Capital Management LLC now owns 40,781 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,233,000 after buying an additional 14,492 shares during the last quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. grew its stake in shares of Northern Oil and Gas by 3.3% during the 1st quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 58,334 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,763,000 after acquiring an additional 1,865 shares during the period. Jones Financial Companies Lllp increased its holdings in Northern Oil and Gas by 181.0% in the 1st quarter. Jones Financial Companies Lllp now owns 1,107 shares of the company’s stock worth $33,000 after acquiring an additional 713 shares during the last quarter. Empowered Funds LLC raised its stake in Northern Oil and Gas by 5.0% in the 1st quarter. Empowered Funds LLC now owns 65,217 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,972,000 after acquiring an additional 3,124 shares during the period. Finally, Intech Investment Management LLC raised its stake in Northern Oil and Gas by 41.8% in the 1st quarter. Intech Investment Management LLC now owns 46,453 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,404,000 after acquiring an additional 13,690 shares during the period. 98.80% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In A number of brokerages have weighed in on NOG. Morgan Stanley set a $24.00 target price on shares of Northern Oil and Gas and gave the stock an “underweight” rating in a research report on Friday, January 23rd. Bank of America boosted their price target on shares of Northern Oil and Gas from $27.00 to $32.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, March 24th. Piper Sandler upped their price target on shares of Northern Oil and Gas from $27.00 to $32.00 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a research note on Thursday, March 12th. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c-)” rating on shares of Northern Oil and Gas in a report on Thursday, January 22nd. Finally, Mizuho set a $29.00 price objective on shares of Northern Oil and Gas in a research note on Wednesday, January 21st. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, three have given a Buy rating, four have given a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $31.00.
Read Our Latest Research Report on Northern Oil and Gas
Northern Oil and Gas Stock Performance Northern Oil and Gas stock opened at $30.81 on Monday. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. has a 1-year low of $19.88 and a 1-year high of $32.62. The company has a current ratio of 1.09, a quick ratio of 1.09 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.13. The firm has a market capitalization of $3.00 billion, a PE ratio of 93.37 and a beta of 0.96. The firm’s 50 day simple moving average is $26.58 and its 200 day simple moving average is $24.17.
Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, February 25th. The company reported $0.83 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.71 by $0.12. The firm had revenue of $610.18 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $524.98 million. Northern Oil and Gas had a net margin of 1.57% and a return on equity of 19.74%. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 18.5% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the firm earned $1.11 EPS. As a group, analysts expect that Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. will post 5.18 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Northern Oil and Gas Announces Dividend The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, April 30th. Investors of record on Monday, March 30th will be given a dividend of $0.45 per share. This represents a $1.80 annualized dividend and a yield of 5.8%. The ex-dividend date is Monday, March 30th. Northern Oil and Gas’s payout ratio is presently 545.45%.
Northern Oil and Gas Company Profile (Free Report)
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc is a publicly traded independent energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. The company’s primary operations are concentrated in the Williston Basin, where it secures acreage positions and partners with drilling operators to advance upstream projects. Through strategic leasehold acquisitions and joint ventures, Northern Oil and Gas seeks to expand its footprint in both conventional and unconventional reservoirs.
Northern Oil and Gas employs horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies to develop unconventional resource plays, particularly in the Bakken, Three Forks and Red River formations of North Dakota and Montana.
Featured Articles Five stocks we like better than Northern Oil and Gas Want to see what other hedge funds are holding NOG? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG – Free Report).
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Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG – Get Free Report) and Universal Energy (OTCMKTS:UVSE – Get Free Report) are both energy companies, but which is the superior business? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their institutional ownership, valuation, profitability, risk, dividends, earnings and analyst recommendations.
Valuation & Earnings This table compares Northern Oil and Gas and Universal Energy”s gross revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and valuation.
Gross Revenue Price/Sales Ratio Net Income Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings Ratio Northern Oil and Gas $2.48 billion 1.11 $38.76 million $0.33 85.66 Universal Energy N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Northern Oil and Gas has higher revenue and earnings than Universal Energy.
Analyst Ratings This is a summary of current ratings and price targets for Northern Oil and Gas and Universal Energy, as provided by MarketBeat.
Sell Ratings Hold Ratings Buy Ratings Strong Buy Ratings Rating Score Northern Oil and Gas 1 4 3 1 2.44 Universal Energy 0 0 0 0 0.00 Northern Oil and Gas presently has a consensus target price of $31.71, suggesting a potential upside of 12.19%. Given Northern Oil and Gas’ stronger consensus rating and higher possible upside, equities analysts plainly believe Northern Oil and Gas is more favorable than Universal Energy.
Profitability This table compares Northern Oil and Gas and Universal Energy’s net margins, return on equity and return on assets.
Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets Northern Oil and Gas 1.57% 19.74% 8.14% Universal Energy N/A N/A N/A Institutional & Insider Ownership 98.8% of Northern Oil and Gas shares are held by institutional investors. 2.9% of Northern Oil and Gas shares are held by company insiders. Comparatively, 0.2% of Universal Energy shares are held by company insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that large money managers, endowments and hedge funds believe a company is poised for long-term growth.
Volatility and Risk Northern Oil and Gas has a beta of 0.94, suggesting that its share price is 6% less volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, Universal Energy has a beta of 0.36, suggesting that its share price is 64% less volatile than the S&P 500.
Summary Northern Oil and Gas beats Universal Energy on 11 of the 11 factors compared between the two stocks.
About Northern Oil and Gas (Get Free Report)
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. It primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
About Universal Energy (Get Free Report)
Universal Energy Corp., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States and Canada. It has 13 oil and gas lease projects. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Lake Mary, Florida.
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Biloxi Marsh Lands (OTCMKTS:BLMC – Get Free Report) and Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG – Get Free Report) are both energy companies, but which is the better stock? We will contrast the two companies based on the strength of their earnings, institutional ownership, valuation, risk, dividends, profitability and analyst recommendations.
Profitability This table compares Biloxi Marsh Lands and Northern Oil and Gas’ net margins, return on equity and return on assets.
Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets Biloxi Marsh Lands N/A N/A N/A Northern Oil and Gas 1.57% 19.74% 8.14% Valuation and Earnings This table compares Biloxi Marsh Lands and Northern Oil and Gas”s top-line revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and valuation.
Gross Revenue Price/Sales Ratio Net Income Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings Ratio Biloxi Marsh Lands N/A N/A $100,000.00 ($0.56) -4.64 Northern Oil and Gas $2.48 billion 1.16 $38.76 million $0.33 89.35 Northern Oil and Gas has higher revenue and earnings than Biloxi Marsh Lands. Biloxi Marsh Lands is trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than Northern Oil and Gas, indicating that it is currently the more affordable of the two stocks.
Institutional & Insider Ownership 98.8% of Northern Oil and Gas shares are held by institutional investors. 2.9% of Northern Oil and Gas shares are held by company insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that hedge funds, large money managers and endowments believe a stock is poised for long-term growth.
Dividends Biloxi Marsh Lands pays an annual dividend of $0.10 per share and has a dividend yield of 3.8%. Northern Oil and Gas pays an annual dividend of $1.80 per share and has a dividend yield of 6.1%. Biloxi Marsh Lands pays out -17.9% of its earnings in the form of a dividend. Northern Oil and Gas pays out 545.5% of its earnings in the form of a dividend, suggesting it may not have sufficient earnings to cover its dividend payment in the future. Northern Oil and Gas has increased its dividend for 4 consecutive years. Northern Oil and Gas is clearly the better dividend stock, given its higher yield and longer track record of dividend growth.
Analyst Recommendations This is a summary of recent ratings and recommmendations for Biloxi Marsh Lands and Northern Oil and Gas, as reported by MarketBeat.
Sell Ratings Hold Ratings Buy Ratings Strong Buy Ratings Rating Score Biloxi Marsh Lands 0 0 0 0 0.00 Northern Oil and Gas 1 4 3 1 2.44 Northern Oil and Gas has a consensus target price of $31.71, indicating a potential upside of 7.56%. Given Northern Oil and Gas’ stronger consensus rating and higher probable upside, analysts clearly believe Northern Oil and Gas is more favorable than Biloxi Marsh Lands.
Volatility and Risk Biloxi Marsh Lands has a beta of -1.86, suggesting that its share price is 286% less volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, Northern Oil and Gas has a beta of 0.94, suggesting that its share price is 6% less volatile than the S&P 500.
Summary Northern Oil and Gas beats Biloxi Marsh Lands on 16 of the 17 factors compared between the two stocks.
About Biloxi Marsh Lands (Get Free Report)
Biloxi Marsh Lands Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties. It owns approximately 90,000 acres of surface, subsurface, and minerals in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. The company was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Metairie, Louisiana.
About Northern Oil and Gas (Get Free Report)
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. It primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
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Harbor Capital Advisors Inc. lessened its holdings in shares of Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG – Free Report) by 97.2% during the fourth quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 1,353 shares of the company’s stock after selling 46,824 shares during the quarter. Harbor Capital Advisors Inc.’s holdings in Northern Oil and Gas were worth $29,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
Other institutional investors have also recently bought and sold shares of the company. First Horizon Corp acquired a new position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas in the third quarter valued at approximately $27,000. Jones Financial Companies Lllp grew its position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas by 181.0% in the first quarter. Jones Financial Companies Lllp now owns 1,107 shares of the company’s stock valued at $33,000 after purchasing an additional 713 shares during the last quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC grew its position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas by 429.4% in the second quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 1,514 shares of the company’s stock valued at $43,000 after purchasing an additional 1,228 shares during the last quarter. Smartleaf Asset Management LLC grew its position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas by 85.7% in the second quarter. Smartleaf Asset Management LLC now owns 1,521 shares of the company’s stock valued at $44,000 after purchasing an additional 702 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Strs Ohio acquired a new position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas in the first quarter valued at approximately $88,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 98.80% of the company’s stock.
Northern Oil and Gas Stock Down 5.1% NYSE NOG opened at $28.06 on Thursday. The business has a fifty day moving average price of $27.43 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $24.35. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.13, a current ratio of 1.09 and a quick ratio of 1.09. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. has a fifty-two week low of $19.88 and a fifty-two week high of $32.62. The stock has a market capitalization of $2.73 billion, a PE ratio of 85.02 and a beta of 0.94.
Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, February 25th. The company reported $0.83 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.71 by $0.12. The company had revenue of $610.18 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $524.98 million. Northern Oil and Gas had a net margin of 1.57% and a return on equity of 19.74%. The firm’s revenue was up 18.5% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm posted $1.11 EPS. Equities analysts expect that Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. will post 5.18 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Northern Oil and Gas Dividend Announcement The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, April 30th. Investors of record on Monday, March 30th will be given a dividend of $0.45 per share. This represents a $1.80 annualized dividend and a yield of 6.4%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Monday, March 30th. Northern Oil and Gas’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 545.45%.
Analysts Set New Price Targets A number of brokerages recently issued reports on NOG. Weiss Ratings reissued a “hold (c-)” rating on shares of Northern Oil and Gas in a research report on Thursday, January 22nd. Mizuho set a $29.00 price target on Northern Oil and Gas in a research report on Wednesday, January 21st. Citigroup increased their price target on Northern Oil and Gas from $34.00 to $39.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, March 31st. Royal Bank Of Canada reduced their price target on Northern Oil and Gas from $33.00 to $30.00 and set a “sector perform” rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, January 20th. Finally, Morgan Stanley set a $24.00 price target on Northern Oil and Gas and gave the stock an “underweight” rating in a research report on Friday, January 23rd. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, three have given a Buy rating, four have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $31.71.
View Our Latest Report on Northern Oil and Gas
Northern Oil and Gas Profile (Free Report)
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc is a publicly traded independent energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. The company’s primary operations are concentrated in the Williston Basin, where it secures acreage positions and partners with drilling operators to advance upstream projects. Through strategic leasehold acquisitions and joint ventures, Northern Oil and Gas seeks to expand its footprint in both conventional and unconventional reservoirs.
Northern Oil and Gas employs horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies to develop unconventional resource plays, particularly in the Bakken, Three Forks and Red River formations of North Dakota and Montana.
Read More Five stocks we like better than Northern Oil and Gas Want to see what other hedge funds are holding NOG? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG – Free Report).
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MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) (“NOG” or the “Company”) announced today that it published its Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) Report for the year ended December 31, 2025. The report is available on the Company’s website under the Sustainability section, in addition to prior year reports.
Highlights from the 2025 Report include an independent third‑party assessment of our cybersecurity program against the NIST 2.0 framework, and a climate hazard risk analysis for each of our well sites. Importantly, in 2025, NOG also purchased and retired 250 tonnes of CO2e, offsetting more than 100% of its Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions through a diversified portfolio of U.S. based offset projects. The purchase of these carbon offsets fulfills and exceeds the Company’s commitment to reducing emissions under our direct control as stated in our 2022 ESG report.
NOG’s ESG disclosure framework relies on the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) Oil & Gas – Exploration & Production standard as well as the SASB Asset Management and Custody Activities standard. The Company believes that providing disclosures across these two standards best captures NOG’s business model of owning and managing non-operated minority working and mineral interests.
ABOUT NOG
NOG is a real asset company with a primary strategy of acquiring and investing in non-operated minority working and mineral interests in the premier hydrocarbon producing basins within the contiguous United States. More information about NOG can be found at www.noginc.com.
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) (“NOG” or the “Company”) announced today that it plans to issue its first quarter 2026 financial and operating results on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, after the market closes.
In connection with its earnings release, NOG will host a conference call and webcast to discuss its financial results at 8:00 a.m. Central Time on Wednesday, April 29, 2026.
Those wishing to listen to the conference call may do so via phone or the Company’s webcast.
Conference Call and Webcast Details:
Date:
April 29, 2026
Time:
8:00 a.m. Central Time
Dial-In:
(800) 715-9871
International Dial-In:
(646) 307-1963
Conference ID:
4503139
Webcast:
First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call
Replay Information:
A replay of the conference call will be available through May 13, 2026, by dialing:
Dial-In:
(800) 770-2030
International Dial-In:
(647) 362-9199
Conference ID:
4503139
An archive of the conference call webcast will also be available on NOG’s website through April 28, 2027.
ABOUT NOG
NOG is a real asset company with a primary strategy of acquiring and investing in non-operated minority working and mineral interests in the premier hydrocarbon producing basins within the contiguous United States. More information about NOG can be found at www.noginc.com.
Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when Northern Oil and Gas (NOG - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on April 28, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis independent oil and gas company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.80 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -39.9%.
Revenues are expected to be $523.52 million, down 9.3% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 24.8% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Northern Oil and Gas?For Northern Oil and Gas, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Northern Oil and Gas will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Northern Oil and Gas would post earnings of $0.71 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.83, delivering a surprise of +16.90%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Northern Oil and Gas doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Key Takeaways NOG to report Q1 on April 28 with estimated EPS of 80 cents and $523.5M in revenues, both down YoY.Northern Oil and Gas faces weak prices, deferrals, rising costs and wider differentials, squeezing margins.NOG may see upside from gas output growth, lower well costs, hedging and a 2.6% rise in volumes. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 80 cents per share, and that for revenues is pinned at $523.5 million.
Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced this oil and gas exploration and production company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. But first, it is worth taking a look at NOG’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of NOG’s Q4 EarningsIn the last reported quarter, this Minnetonka, MN-based independent energy company’s earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by strong production, with total output beating the consensus mark by 4.2%. It reported adjusted earnings per share of 83 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. However, revenues of $447.7 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $515 million.
The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, resulting in an average surprise of 29.7%.
This is depicted in the graph below:
NOG’s Trend in Estimate RevisionThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has witnessed four upward and two downward movements in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 39.9% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a 9.3% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider for NOG’s Q1 PerformanceNorthern Oil and Gas faces near-term pressure from weak commodity prices and operator-driven activity deferrals, which are already impacting production visibility. Management highlighted a typical first-quarter downtick due to weather, curtailments and lower activity. Rising gas exposure comes with weaker realizations, and widening oil differentials further compress margins. Additionally, ongoing non-cash impairments tied to lower oil prices and higher maintenance costs signal underlying stress, while the uncertain timing of deferred wells and inconsistent operator behavior add volatility to near-term earnings outcomes. The increase in NOG’s costs might have dented its to-be-reported bottom line. According to our model prediction, the company’s first-quarter total operating expenses are likely to total $636.2 million, which is up 70.6% from the year-ago quarter’s level.
Despite headwinds, strong gas production growth, lower well costs and high-grading of drilling locations could support upside. Front-loaded capital deployment and ground game success may drive better-than-expected volumes, while hedging and cost discipline help sustain margins, positioning the company for a potential earnings beat. According to our model, NOG's total average daily production volume is expected to increase 2.6% year over year, reaching 138.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d).
What Does Our Model Predict for NOG?Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Northern Oil and Gas this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
NOG currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to ConsiderHere are some firms from the other space that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
ARC Resources Ltd. (AETUF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.55% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 28. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ARC Resources is engaged in the exploration, acquisition and development of oil and natural gas properties in western Canada. AETUF’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, beat the same in two and were in line in one of the quarters, delivering an average surprise of 2.2%.
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 28.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPD’s 2026 EPS indicates 7.5% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $79.8 billion, EPD’s shares have gained 21.3% in a year.
Antero Resources Corporation (AR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.46% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 29.
Antero Resources is an independent exploration and production company focused on the development of natural gas, NGLs and oil resources primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS indicates 137.4% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $11.3 billion, AR’s shares have risen 13.3% in a year.
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.74 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.71 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.33 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +4.23%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this independent oil and gas company would post earnings of $0.71 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.83, delivering a surprise of +16.9%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
Northern Oil and Gas, which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, posted revenues of $539.86 million for the quarter ended March 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.57%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $576.95 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Northern Oil and Gas shares have added about 25.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 4.8%.
What's Next for Northern Oil and Gas?While Northern Oil and Gas has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Northern Oil and Gas was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.73 on $538.33 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $3.04 on $2.14 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is currently in the top 4% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, Ring Energy (REI - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2026.
This independent oil and gas company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.03 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -40%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Ring Energy's revenues are expected to be $70.9 million, down 10.4% from the year-ago quarter.
Key Takeaways NOG Q1 EPS of 74 cents beat estimates on strong output, but fell from $1.33 a year ago.Revenues of $539.9M beat estimates but declined Y/Y due to lower oil and gas sales.Production rose 10% to 148,303 Boe/d, while operating expenses surged 77% to $660M. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of 74 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. The outperformance reflects strong production. However, the bottom line declined from the year-ago adjusted profit of $1.33 due to weaker natural gas prices and a 77% increase in operating expenses.
The Minnetonka, MN-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported oil and gas sales of $539.9 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $511 million, supported by higher crude oil realizations. However, the top line decreased from the year-ago figure of $576.9 million. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to lower oil and gas sales during this quarter.
In February, NOG closed the joint Ohio Utica acquisition of upstream and midstream assets with an adjusted ownership split of 40% for $464.6 million, including the previously paid $58.8 million deposit.
In March, NOG completed a common stock offering of 8.3 million shares of common stock, generating net proceeds of $227.9 million. Funds raised in the offering were applied to the outstanding borrowings on the company’s revolving credit facility.
NOG’s Q1 Production DetailsThe first-quarter production increased 10% year over year to 148,303 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d). Additionally, the figure beat our estimate of 141,049 Boe/d.
While oil volume totaled 73,567 Bod (a 6% decrease year over year), natural gas (and natural gas liquids) amounted to 448,444 thousand cubic feet per day (a 33% increase). Our model estimate for oil volume and natural gas production was pegged at 70,000 Bod and 411,400 thousand cubic feet per day, respectively.
The average sales price for crude was $66.32 per barrel, indicating a 2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s level of $64.92. Moreover, the figure beat our expectation of $52.51 per barrel.
The average realized natural gas price was $2.50 per thousand cubic feet compared with $3.86 in the year-earlier period. Our model estimate for the same was pinned at $4.58 per thousand cubic feet.
NOG’s Costs & ExpensesTotal operating expenses in the quarter rose to $660 million from $372.8 million in the year-ago period. This was mainly on account of a surge in production expenses, general and administrative expenses, impairment of oil and gas assets, and other expenses. The metric came above our estimate of $636.2 million.
Capital Expenditures of NOGThe company reported capital expenditures of $270.1 million for the first quarter, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other unplanned items. Of this total, $226.5 million was dedicated to drilling and completion activities on organic assets, while $43.6 million was allocated to Ground Game efforts, including associated development costs.
During the first quarter, NOG placed 17.1 net wells into production.
NOG’s Financial PositionThis Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s free cash flow for the quarter totaled $30.4 million.
As of March 31, 2026, Northern Oil had $37 million in cash and cash equivalents. The company had a long-term debt of $2.6 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 58.8%.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Important Energy Earnings at a GlanceWhile we have discussed NOG’s first-quarter results in detail, let us take a look at three other key reports in the energy space.
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN - Free Report) reported a first-quarter 2026 adjusted net loss of 6 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 10-cent loss. However, the bottom line decreased from the year-ago quarter's breakeven result due to a decrease in operating income in its Drilling Services, Completion Services and Drilling Products segments.
Total revenues of $1.1 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.1%. This was driven by higher-than-expected revenues from the Drilling Services and Completion Services segments. The Drilling Services and Completion Services segments reported revenues of $351.7 million and $679.6 million, which beat the consensus mark of $350 million and $37.1 million, respectively. However, the top line decreased about 12.8% year over year. This underperformance can be attributed to the decrease in year-over-year segment revenues.
As of March 31, 2026, the company had cash and cash equivalents worth $337.2 million and long-term debt of $1.2 billion. Its debt-to-capitalization was 27.8%.
NOV Inc. (NOV - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 15 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 17 cents. The bottom line also decreased 21% from the year-ago quarter’s 19 cents.
The oil and gas equipment and services company’s total revenues of $2.05 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $2 million but fell 2.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $2.1 billion.
The lower-than-expected quarterly earnings of the company were primarily attributable to conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted logistics, delayed deliveries and increased operational costs.
As of March 31, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $1.3 billion and long-term debt of $1.7 billion with a debt-to-capitalization of 21.2%. NOV had $1.5 billion available on its primary revolving credit facility during the same time.
Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR - Free Report) reported a first-quarter 2026 adjusted loss of $1.54 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $2.39. Additionally, the metric is significantly above the prior-year quarter’s reported loss of $7.5 per share. This outperformance was mainly driven by higher adjusted operating income from its International Drilling segment.
The oil and gas drilling company’s operating revenues of $783.5 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $779 million. The top line also increased from the year-ago quarter’s $736.2 million, primarily supported by higher contributions from the U.S. Drilling, International Drilling and Drilling Solutions segments.
As of March 31, 2026, Nabors had $500.9 million in cash and short-term investments. Long-term debt was about $2.1 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 78.8%.
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) receives a 'Hold' rating with a $16/share price target, citing excessive volatility and complex financials. NOG's non-operator model, heavy hedging, and reliance on M&A introduce significant risks, limiting upside from high oil prices. Despite record production and a high yield, negative GAAP earnings, dilution, and high leverage undermine the investment case.
For the quarter ended March 2026, Northern Oil and Gas (NOG - Free Report) reported revenue of $539.86 million, down 6.4% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.74, compared to $1.33 in the year-ago quarter.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of +5.57% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $511.4 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.71, the EPS surprise was +4.23%.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how Northern Oil and Gas performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Average Daily Production - Total: 148,303.00 BOE/D versus the five-analyst average estimate of 141,049.30 BOE/D.Average Daily Production - Oil: 73,567.00 BBL/D versus the five-analyst average estimate of 71,669.23 BBL/D.Average Daily Production - Natural Gas and NGLs: 448,444.00 Mcf/D versus 416,720.50 Mcf/D estimated by five analysts on average.Average Sales Prices - Natural Gas and NGLs Net of Settled Natural Gas Derivatives: $2.77 compared to the $3.26 average estimate based on four analysts.Average Sales Prices - Oil Net of Settled Oil Derivatives: $62.00 compared to the $62.19 average estimate based on four analysts.Net Production - Natural Gas and NGLs: 40,360.00 Mcf compared to the 37,818.07 Mcf average estimate based on three analysts.Net Production - Oil: 6,621.00 KBBL versus 6,427.38 KBBL estimated by three analysts on average.Net Production - Total: 13,347.00 KBOE compared to the 12,730.40 KBOE average estimate based on three analysts.Average Sales Prices - Oil: $66.32 versus the two-analyst average estimate of $59.35.Net Sales- Oil and Gas Sales: $539.86 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $514.84 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -6.4%.Net Sales- Oil Sales: $439.08 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $375.33 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -4.5%.Net Sales- Natural Gas and NGL Sales: $100.77 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $122.85 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -14.1%.View all Key Company Metrics for Northern Oil and Gas here>>>
Shares of Northern Oil and Gas have returned -11.7% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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Published in earnings earnings-estimates-revisions earnings-surprise
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) (“NOG” or the “Company”) today announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend on the Company's common stock. DIVIDEND DECLARATION NOG's Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend in the amount of $0.45 per share, representing an equal amount to the prior quarterly dividend. The dividend is payable on July 31, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 29, 2026. ABOUT NOG NOG is.
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) (“NOG”) today announced that it has agreed to purchase an undivided 25% interest in the Light-Oil Duvernay Assets owned and operated by Parallax Energy Operating Inc. (“Parallax” or the “Seller”).
MANAGEMENT COMMENTS
"Quality oil inventory is becoming increasingly scarce, and NOG's scaled non-operated model positions us to access opportunities that most in our sector cannot. Our ability to structure creative, accretive transactions with best-in-class operators is what sets NOG apart. The Duvernay is one of North America's premier light oil resources — high-quality, low-cost, long-life inventory with meaningful upside that remains largely untapped. Parallax is led by a team with a demonstrated track record of developing Duvernay assets, backed by Carnelian Energy Capital, one of North America’s leading energy investors. The decision to incorporate equity consideration aligns mutual interests while enhancing our per-share metrics and balance sheet. This transaction is the result of disciplined evaluation of the meaningful opportunities we see in Canada, and a direct reflection of our ability to identify and convert high-quality assets into long-term value for shareholders."
LIGHT-OIL DUVERNAY ACQUISITION
The Assets are comprised of an undivided non-operated interest which includes, net to NOG, ~4,000 Boe per day of production and ~75,000 acres in the Light-Oil Duvernay Shale at an initial unadjusted purchase price of CA$350 million (~US$259 million), subject to typical closing adjustments. The initial unadjusted purchase price will be funded with CA$113 million (~US$83.5) million of NOG common stock issued to the Seller at closing, with the remaining consideration sourced from cash on hand, operating free cash flow and borrowings under NOG’s revolving credit facility.
In addition, NOG has agreed to additional contingent consideration of CA$25 million (~US$18.5 million), payable in cash or common stock (at NOG’s election) in the first quarter of 2028 if certain average oil prices are achieved through the end of 2027.
The acquired Assets include over 500 gross high-quality, low breakeven locations. Substantially all the Assets are operated by Parallax, with NOG participating in development pursuant to a long-term Joint Development Agreement with multi-year drilling commitments entered into in connection with the acquisition.
NOG expects average production for the properties for full year 2027 of ~4,000 Boe per day (2-stream, ~80% oil). Operating costs are expected to be less than $7.50 per Boe/d, below NOG’s corporate average. NOG expects to incur up to US$40 - $45 million in capital expenditures on the assets post-closing in 2026, and US$45 - $50 million in 2027.
In connection with the transaction, NOG intends to enter into derivatives transactions to hedge currency fluctuations related to operating costs on a multi-year basis. Depending on market conditions, NOG may also repurchase a portion of the stock consideration in the open market.
The effective date for the transaction is April 1, 2026, and NOG expects to close the transaction late in the second quarter of 2026. As part of the transaction, NOG has formed a wholly-owned Canadian subsidiary, NOG Energy Canada, Ltd.
ADVISORS
Citigroup Global Markets acted as exclusive advisor to NOG on the transaction. Kirkland & Ellis LLP and Blakes, Cassels & Graydon LLP are serving as Northern’s legal advisors.
National Bank Capital Markets and RBC Capital Markets acted as financial advisors to Parallax on the transaction. Stikeman Elliot LLP served as Parallax's legal advisor.
UPDATED COMPANY GUIDANCE
NOG is providing updated company guidance proforma for the light-oil Duvernay acquisition in line with the “high-end” of the former low activity range; consistent with commentary on our first quarter 2026 earnings call.
Prior FY2026 Low Activity Guidance
Revised FY2026 Annual Guidance
Annual Production (2-stream, Boe/day)
139,000 – 143,000
143,000 – 148,000
Annual Oil Production
68,000 – 72,000
71,500 – 73,500
Net Wells Turned - in- Line (TILs)
68.0 – 72.0
74.0 – 76.0
Total Budgeted Capital Expenditures ($MM)
$850 – $900
$850 – $900
LOE/Production Expenses (per Boe)
$9.65 - $10.10
$9.70 - $9.90
Cash G&A (ex-transaction costs) (per Boe)
$0.81 - $0.86
$0.83 - $0.86
Non-Cash G&A (per Boe)
$0.25 - $0.30
$0.25 - $0.30
Production Taxes (as a % of Oil & Gas Sales)
7% - 8%
7.5% – 8.0%
Oil Differential to NYMEX WTI (per Bbl)
($5.35) – ($6.00)
($5.25 - $5.60)
Gas Realization as a % of Henry Hub/MCF
70% - 75%
70.0% – 72.5%
DD&A Rate per BOE
$15.00 – $16.00
$15.00 - $15.50
Updates to guidance are comprised of:
As described on Q1 call, stand-alone oil production update consistent with “high-end of the low case” from prior guidance Gas volume increase driven by better well performance and timing Minor contribution from pending Duvernay acquisition (late 2Q assumed closing) Capital expenditures, even inclusive of Duvernay transaction, remain unchanged, driven primarily by cost efficiencies LOE guidance updated toward low end of previous guidance Material improvement to oil differentials for the year, driven primarily by Williston pricing Overall gas differentials slightly lower, driven by Waha, mostly offset by Appalachian NGL pricing ABOUT NOG
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) is the largest publicly traded dedicated non-operator in the United States, built on a differentiated strategy of acquiring non-operated minority working interests and mineral rights across the premier basins of North America. By combining deep industry relationships with disciplined capital allocation, NOG has built a scaled, diversified portfolio that generates durable production and strong cash flow for its shareholders. More information about NOG can be found at www.noginc.com.
ABOUT PARALLAX ENERGY OPERATING INC.
Parallax Energy Operating Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company based in Calgary, Alberta, formed in partnership with funds managed by Carnelian Energy Capital Management, L.P., is focused on leasing, developing and operating oil and gas properties throughout Western Canada. For more information, please visit www.parallaxenergy.ca.
SAFE HARBOR
This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and future results that are subject to the safe harbors created under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”). All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this release regarding NOG’s financial position, common stock dividends, including any increases thereto, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations and industry conditions are forward-looking statements. When used in this release, forward-looking statements are generally accompanied by terms or phrases such as “estimate,” “project,” “predict,” “believe,” “expect,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “target,” “could,” “plan,” “intend,” “seek,” “goal,” “will,” “should,” “may” or other words and similar expressions that convey the uncertainty of future events or outcomes. Items contemplating or making assumptions about actual or potential future sales, market size, collaborations, and trends or operating results also constitute such forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and important factors (many of which are beyond NOG’s control) that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements, including the following: changes in crude oil and natural gas prices, the pace of drilling and completions activity on NOG’s properties and properties pending acquisition, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic slowdown, NOG’s ability to acquire additional development opportunities, changes in NOG’s reserves estimates or the value thereof, general economic or industry conditions, nationally and/or in the communities in which NOG conducts business, changes in the interest rate environment, legislation or regulatory requirements, conditions of the securities markets, NOG’s ability to consummate any pending acquisition transactions (including the transactions described herein), other risks and uncertainties related to the closing of pending acquisition transactions (including the transactions described herein), NOG’s ability to raise or access capital, changes in accounting principles, policies or guidelines, financial or political instability, acts of war or terrorism, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technical factors affecting NOG’s operations, products, services and prices.
NOG has based these forward-looking statements on its current expectations and assumptions about future events. While management considers these expectations and assumptions to be reasonable, they are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, regulatory and other risks, contingencies and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond NOG’s control. NOG does not undertake any duty to update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as may be required by the federal securities laws.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Northern Oil and Gas (NOG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 23.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Northern Oil and Gas due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Northern Oil Q1 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Down Y/YNorthern Oil and Gas reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of 74 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. The outperformance reflects strong production. However, the bottom line declined from the year-ago adjusted profit of $1.33 due to weaker natural gas prices and a 77% increase in operating expenses.
The Minnetonka, MN-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported oil and gas sales of $539.9 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $511 million, supported by higher crude oil realizations. However, the top line decreased from the year-ago figure of $576.9 million. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to lower oil and gas sales during this quarter.
In February, NOG closed the joint Ohio Utica acquisition of upstream and midstream assets with an adjusted ownership split of 40% for $464.6 million, including the previously paid $58.8 million deposit.
In March, NOG completed a common stock offering of 8.3 million shares of common stock, generating net proceeds of $227.9 million. Funds raised in the offering were applied to the outstanding borrowings on the company’s revolving credit facility.
Q1 Production DetailsThe first-quarter production increased 10% year over year to 148,303 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d). Additionally, the figure beat our estimate of 141,049 Boe/d.
While oil volume totaled 73,567 Bod (a 6% decrease year over year), natural gas (and natural gas liquids) amounted to 448,444 thousand cubic feet per day (a 33% increase). Our model estimate for oil volume and natural gas production was pegged at 70,000 Bod and 411,400 thousand cubic feet per day, respectively.
The average sales price for crude was $66.32 per barrel, indicating a 2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s level of $64.92. Moreover, the figure beat our expectation of $52.51 per barrel.
The average realized natural gas price was $2.50 per thousand cubic feet compared with $3.86 in the year-earlier period. Our model estimate for the same was pinned at $4.58 per thousand cubic feet.
Costs & ExpensesTotal operating expenses in the quarter rose to $660 million from $372.8 million in the year-ago period. This was mainly on account of a surge in production expenses, general and administrative expenses, impairment of oil and gas assets, and other expenses. The metric came above our estimate of $636.2 million.
Capital ExpendituresThe company reported capital expenditures of $270.1 million for the first quarter, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other unplanned items. Of this total, $226.5 million was dedicated to drilling and completion activities on organic assets, while $43.6 million was allocated to Ground Game efforts, including associated development costs.
During the first quarter, NOG placed 17.1 net wells into production.
Financial PositionThe company’s free cash flow for the quarter totaled $30.4 million.
As of March 31, 2026, Northern Oil had $37 million in cash and cash equivalents. The company had a long-term debt of $2.6 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 58.8%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 10.35% due to these changes.
VGM ScoresCurrently, Northern Oil and Gas has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Northern Oil and Gas has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Deutsche Bank just delivered one of the most aggressive analyst upgrades of 2026 on Humana (NYSE:HUM | HUM Price Prediction), lifting the managed care giant to Buy from Hold while nearly doubling its price target to $441 from $235. The move signals that one of Wall Street’s more cautious voices now sees a fundamental reset in the Humana franchise.
Adding to the bullish chorus, Mizuho raised its Humana price target to $335 from $290 and kept an Outperform rating, citing a reduced likelihood of negative medical loss ratio shifts through 2026. For prudent investors weighing a healthcare rebound trade, the upgrade reframes Humana stock as a recovery story rather than a falling knife.
Ticker Company Firm Action Old Rating New Rating Old Target New Target HUM Humana Deutsche Bank Upgrade Hold Buy $235 $441 The Analyst’s Case Deutsche Bank’s thesis rests on a stabilizing managed care market and an expectation that Humana’s Medicare star ratings will recover. Star ratings drive bonus payments, premium positioning, and enrollee plan selection during Annual Election Period shopping.
The firm also frames 2026 as the earnings bottom and a rebasing year, depending on the stars results in October. With Humana having already affirmed FY2026 adjusted EPS of at least $9 against the prior year’s $17.14, the reset narrative has data behind it.
Company Snapshot Humana is a Louisville-based managed care leader anchored by Individual Medicare Advantage, CenterWell Primary Care, and CenterWell Pharmacy Solutions. Q1 2026 results beat on both lines, with adjusted EPS of $10.31 on revenue of $39.65 billion, up 24% year over year.
Individual Medicare Advantage membership climbed 22% year to date, and the insurance segment benefit ratio came in at 89%, slightly favorable to guidance. Humana CEO Jim Rechtin noted, “We’ve had a solid start to the year and feel good about how our operating execution and transformation initiatives are setting us up for the future.”
Why the Move Matters Now HUM stock has staged a sharp comeback, rising 51% over the past month through May 19 and 22% year to date. Deutsche Bank’s upgrade serves as sell-side validation of that rally, particularly given the prior consensus average target of $246.83.
At a P/E ratio of 33x on trailing earnings and a forward P/E ratio of 30x, Humana stock isn’t cheap on near-term numbers. The Deutsche Bank call argues that depressed 2026 earnings normalize materially higher as stars and rates improve.
What It Means for Your Portfolio The bull case is straightforward: star ratings recovery, a friendlier Medicare Advantage rate cycle, completed valuation rebase, and dominant MA exposure that gives Humana upside leverage as conditions improve. The Mizuho raise reinforces that the operating backdrop is stabilizing.
However, the risks remain real. October’s stars results are still a binary catalyst, MA reimbursement remains politically sensitive, and a securities fraud lawsuit tied to Medicare Advantage utilization disclosures was partially allowed to proceed on May 19.
For long-term investors, Humana stock now sits at the intersection of a credible recovery thesis and a stock that has already moved sharply. Sizing positions modestly and watching for whether October’s star ratings confirm the Deutsche Bank thesis could be the more prudent path than chasing the upgrade.
According to Kiplinger, the Congressional Joint Economic Committee found Medicare Advantage is overpaying insurers by $212 per enrollee. The figure looks small until you scale it.
The data, scaled Multiply $212 against roughly 33 million Medicare Advantage enrollees and the system is leaking about $7 billion a year in excess payments to private insurers. Medicare Advantage now covers more than half of all Medicare beneficiaries, which puts the overpayment in the middle of the program rather than at its edges.
Where does the $7 billion go? Some flows into insurer margins, helping explain why publicly traded MA carriers rank among the largest U.S. healthcare companies. The rest funds supplemental benefits that drive MA marketing: dental, vision, hearing, gym memberships, and grocery cards traditional Medicare excludes.
The overpayment is structural. It originates in three mechanics: risk adjustment coding incentives that reward plans for documenting more diagnoses, the benchmark methodology CMS uses to set county-level payment rates, and upcoding, where plans capture diagnoses traditional fee-for-service claims would never have generated.
The context Kiplinger does not provide Industry data confirms the pattern. Modern Healthcare reported $33 billion in extra payments to Medicare Advantage plans tied to coding intensity, with UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH | UNH Price Prediction) and Humana (NYSE:HUM) the primary beneficiaries. CMS has been tightening risk adjustment audits, and several major insurers have faced DOJ investigations over coding practices. A Leerink report indicates UnitedHealth faces the largest RADV audit exposure, with 60 contracts covering 92% of its 2020 Medicare Advantage membership under review.
The political response cuts the other way. CMS announced a 2.48% average increase in Medicare Advantage payments for 2027, sending $13 billion in additional funding to private insurers, well above the 0.09% rate originally proposed in January 2026 that briefly knocked Humana down more than 20%.
How to act on it For a healthy 68-year-old in a mid-cost metro area, the choice between a $0-premium MA plan and traditional Medicare paired with Plan G Medigap and Part D depends on health trajectory and network flexibility.
Moderate use: The $0-premium MA plan typically wins on annual cash outlay. Premiums are nil, primary care copays run low, and dental and vision are bundled. Annual out-of-pocket commonly lands in the low four figures. Major health event: Plan G Medigap caps exposure near the Part B deductible. MA enrollees face prior authorization and a maximum out-of-pocket that often runs $5,000 to $9,000 in-network, with higher exposure out-of-network. Healthy retirees who stay in-network and value the extras tend to come out ahead in MA. Retirees with chronic conditions, frequent travelers, and those who want unrestricted specialist access generally do better with traditional Medicare and Medigap, despite higher monthly premiums.
The takeaway The $212 figure represents the hidden subsidy behind your neighbor’s free dental coverage. As CMS audits tighten and DOJ scrutiny continues, expect supplemental benefits to thin and marketing to soften. If your plan choice hinges on those extras, price the alternative now, before the subsidy that funds them gets reformed.
CenterWell Pharmacy® mail order hub creates jobs, utilizes state-of-the-art equipment to help meet growing demand for reliable medication access
ORLANDO, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM), one of the nation’s leading health and well-being companies, today announced the start of full operations of its newest CenterWell Pharmacy® mail order distribution center, in Orlando, Florida. The $83 million, state-of-the-art facility bolsters capacity for prescription medication delivery across Florida and the country and reinforces Humana’s longstanding commitment to providing members and patients across the Sunshine State with a simpler, more coordinated care experience.
“This economic investment is testament to both our talent pool and the supportive business environment here in Central Florida,” said U.S. Rep. Darren Soto (FL-09). “The CenterWell distribution center strengthens our local economy. It’s important as well to have health care infrastructure right here in Orlando that supports access to critical medication that people need.”
Enhancing Reliable, Direct Medication Access
CenterWell Pharmacy® serves as a mail-order pharmacy for many Humana members and also provides payer-agnostic fulfillment services, most recently through an emerging line of business involving Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) and Direct-to-Employer (DTE) medication access partnerships.
“This new CenterWell Pharmacy reflects both our excitement for growth and our deep commitment to delivering better outcomes for patients,” said Bethanie Stein, Pharm.D., President of Pharmacy at Humana, including CenterWell Pharmacy®. “As demand continues to grow, we are expanding our capacity with modern, high‑performing pharmacies like Orlando, ensuring more people can access their medications safely, reliably, and in a way that supports long‑term adherence and health.”
Celebrating Job Creation and Enhanced Capabilities
The 162,000 square-foot Orlando distribution center can process and dispense up to 64,000 prescriptions per day. The facility employs more than 165 people – including pharmacists, pharmacy technicians, engineers, and software specialists – with plans to hire more to support pharmacy growth. To mark the site’s full operational status, CenterWell® is holding a ribbon-cutting celebration today, to be attended by local dignitaries.
In addition to industry-leading equipment, the facility also boasts operational efficiencies that streamline the safe handling and delivery of both specialty and traditional medication. Nationwide, CenterWell Pharmacy® boasts a dispensing accuracy rate of 99.9992% and has earned a number of accreditations and awards for customer satisfaction and commitment to patient care. The Orlando location is CenterWell Pharmacy’s third U.S. mail-order facility, with others in Arizona and Ohio.
“This distribution center gives us expanded capacity to meet increased demand for timely, reliable medication access, closing the distance when delivering to patients here in Florida and throughout the southeast United States,” said Guillermo Sollberger, Chief Operating Officer for CenterWell Pharmacy®, which includes specialty and traditional mail-order pharmacy, as well as retail pharmacy locations. “The facility also gives us access to a talented workforce in Greater Orlando, an area known for its specialty pharmacy ecosystem.”
Humana’s Patient-Centered Care Commitment in Florida
Humana serves Floridians through an integrated approach. It is the state’s leading Medicare Advantage provider, with more than 1.1 million Florida members; manages Medicaid benefits for more than 540,000 Floridians through Humana Healthy Horizons®; and serves more than 770,000 military service members, retirees, and their families across the state as a TRICARE provider.
Humana’s CenterWell® care delivery organization in Florida employs more than 6,500 people, who staff more than 200 CenterWell®, Conviva®, and MaxHealth Primary Care locations and nearly 50 CenterWell® and Trilogy Home Health branches, and provide pharmacy services across the state.
“As Florida’s senior population continues to grow, CenterWell’s integrated care model offers improved health and simplified care for those we serve. This critical expansion of pharmacy services deepens our commitment to our patients in Florida and to the entire community, including thousands of local teammates," said Sanjay Shetty, M.D., President of CenterWell®. "We are eager to further our mission to address whole health needs by personalizing care that leads to healthier and more fulfilling lives.”
Workforce Training and Career Opportunities
As part of Humana’s commitment to advancing career opportunities and providing an inclusive environment, CenterWell Pharmacy® invests in training programs and resources for those with no pharmacy experience or those transitioning into the industry. Individuals interested in working at the Orlando distribution center can be trained for pharmacy technician licensing at no charge. Current job openings are listed on the CenterWell Pharmacy careers website.
About Humana
Humana (NYSE:HUM) is a leading U.S. healthcare company. Through our Humana insurance services and our CenterWell® healthcare services, we make it easier for the millions of people we serve to achieve their best health – delivering the care and service they need, when they need it. These efforts are leading to a better quality of life for people with Medicare and Medicaid, families, individuals, military service personnel, and communities at large. Learn more about what we offer at Humana.com and at CenterWell.com.
About CenterWell
CenterWell® is a leading health care services business focused on creating integrated and differentiated experiences that put our patients at the center of everything we do. The result is high quality health care that is accessible, comprehensive, and, most of all, personalized. As the largest provider of senior-focused primary care, one of the leading providers of home health care, and a leading integrated home delivery, specialty, hospice, and retail pharmacy, CenterWell® is focused on whole health and addressing the physical, emotional and social wellness of our patients. CenterWell® is part of Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM). Learn more about what we offer at CenterWell.com.
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Humana (HUM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 30.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Humana due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Humana Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Humana Beats Q1 Earnings Estimates on Increasing Premiums
Humana reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $10.31 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.5%. However, the bottom line fell 11% year over year.
Revenues improved 23.5% year over year to $39.6 billion. The top line surpassed the consensus mark by 0.5%.
The quarterly results benefited on the back of premium gains and a robust performance from the CenterWell segment, which saw a revenue jump supported by its primary care business. A rise in overall medical membership also contributed to the upside. However, the upside was partly offset by escalating operating expenses and a deteriorating benefit ratio.
HUM’s Q1 Operational UpdateHumana’s premiums totaled $37.7 billion, which advanced 23.6% year over year, and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $37.3 billion and our estimate of $36.6 billion. Services revenues rose 25.7% year over year to $1.7 billion, beating the consensus mark of $1.6 billion. Investment income of $262 million fell 0.8% year over year in the quarter under review. However, the metric beat the consensus mark of $230 million and our estimate of $235.7 million.
The benefit ratio came in at 89.4%, which deteriorated 240 basis points (bps) year over year. Total operating expenses increased 25.9% year over year to $37.9 billion, higher than our estimate of $36.6 billion. The year-over-year increase was due to higher benefits and operating costs. The adjusted operating cost ratio of 10% improved 50 bps year over year.
HUM’s net income declined 4.7% year over year to $1.2 billion but beat our estimate of $1.1 billion.
Q1 Segmental Update of HUMInsuranceThe segment’s revenues rose 23% year over year to $38.1 billion in the first quarter on the back of improved per-member premiums derived from HUM’s Medicare and stand-alone PDP businesses, supported by improved Medicare Advantage benchmark funding from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and a higher Part D direct subsidy tied to the IRA.
Adjusted operating income dropped 8.8% year over year to $1.4 billion. The benefit ratio deteriorated 200 bps year over year to 89.4%. The operating cost ratio of 7.3% improved 90 bps year over year.
Total medical membership of the segment was 17.7 million as of March 31, 2026, which rose 19.4% year over year. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 16.7 million and our estimate of 15.7 million.
CenterWellThe unit recorded revenues of $6.1 billion in the quarter under review, which improved 19.7% year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.8 billion. The metric benefited from higher revenues stemming from the company’s primary care business.
Adjusted operating income dropped 25.1% year over year to $338 million. The operating cost ratio of 94.5% deteriorated 340 bps year over year due to the ongoing implementation of the v28 risk model update within the company’s primary care business and higher volumes in CenterWell Specialty Pharmacy.
Humana’s Financial Update (As of March 31, 2026)Humana exited the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $5 billion, which rose 17.9% from the 2025-end level. Total assets of $55.3 billion increased 13% from the figure at 2025-end.
Long-term debt amounted to $12.3 billion, down 0.8% from the figure as of Dec. 31, 2025. Debt to capitalization deteriorated 190 bps year over year to 43% at the first-quarter end.
Total stockholders’ equity of $18.6 billion advanced 5.2% from the 2025-end figure.
HUM generated net cash from operations of $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026, which increased nearly fourfold year over year.
HUM’s Capital Deployment UpdateHumana bought back shares worth $107 million in the first quarter of 2026. It also paid dividends of $107 million during the same quarter.
2026 View by HUMRevenues are still projected to be a minimum of $160 billion, which implies a 23.4% increase from the 2025 reported figure. The Insurance segment’s revenues are expected to continue to be forecasted at a minimum of $155 billion. Revenues of the CenterWell segment are still expected to be at a minimum of $25 billion.
Adjusted EPS is still projected to be at least $9.00, which indicates a 47.5% decline from the 2025 figure. GAAP EPS is now projected to be at least $8.36, down from the previously expected guidance of at least $8.89.
Management still anticipates Individual Medicare Advantage membership to witness growth of around 25% in 2026. Group Medicare Advantage membership is still expected to record an increase of roughly 150,000.
Membership from the Individual Medicare stand-alone PDP is still expected to increase around 1,000,000 this year. State-based contracts are still anticipated to witness membership growth within 25,000-100,000.
The GAAP benefit ratio for the Insurance segment is still likely to be 92.75%, with a variability margin of plus or minus 25 basis points. The GAAP consolidated adjusted operating cost ratio is still expected to be at 10%, with a variability margin of plus or minus 25 basis points.
GAAP cash flow from operations is still estimated within $2.5-$2.9 billion. Meanwhile, capital expenditures are still projected to be roughly $650 million. The adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be around 25.5%, while the weighted average share count is anticipated at around 121 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 38.73% due to these changes.
VGM ScoresCurrently, Humana has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Humana has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry PlayerHumana is part of the Zacks Medical - HMOs industry. Over the past month, UnitedHealth Group (UNH - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 3.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.
UnitedHealth reported revenues of $111.72 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2%. EPS of $7.23 for the same period compares with $7.20 a year ago.
UnitedHealth is expected to post earnings of $4.84 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +18.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.2%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for UnitedHealth. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Former Attorney General of Louisiana, Charles C. Foti, Jr., Esq., a partner at the law firm of Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC ("KSF"), announces that KSF continues its investigation into Humana Inc. ("Humana" or "the Company") (NYSE: HUM).
On January 18, 2024, the Company announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023, disclosing that its benefits expense ratio increased to approximately 91.4% for the fourth quarter of 2023 and approximately 88% for the full year 2023, resulting in 2023 adjusted EPS of only $26.09 per share, or more than $2 per share less than what the Company had predicted in November 2023. Then, on January 25, 2024, the Company further disclosed a loss for the fourth quarter of 2023 and expected that higher level of medical costs would persist for all of 2024, resulting in expected 2024 adjusted EPS of only $16 per share, a $10 per share decrease from 2023, well below analysts' expectations of $29 per share.
Thereafter, the Company and certain of its executives were sued in a securities class action lawsuit, charging them with failing to disclose material information during the Class Period in violation of federal securities laws. Recently, the Court presiding over the case denied the Company's motion to dismiss the case in part, allowing the case to move forward.
KSF's investigation is focusing on whether Humana's officers and/or directors breached their fiduciary duties to its shareholders or otherwise violated state or federal laws.
If you have information that would assist KSF in its investigation, or have been a long-term holder of Humana shares and would like to discuss your legal rights, you may, without obligation or cost to you, call toll-free at 1-833-938-0905 or email KSF Managing Partner Lewis Kahn ([email protected]), or visit https://www.ksfcounsel.com/cases/nyse-hum/ to learn more.
About Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC
KSF, whose partners include former Louisiana Attorney General Charles C. Foti, Jr., is one of the nation's premier boutique securities litigation law firms. This past year, KSF was ranked by SCAS among the top 10 firms nationally based upon total settlement value. KSF serves a variety of clients, including public and private institutional investors, and retail investors - in seeking recoveries for investment losses emanating from corporate fraud or malfeasance by publicly traded companies. KSF has offices in New York, Delaware, California, Louisiana, Chicago, New Jersey, and a representative office in Luxembourg.
TOP 10 Plaintiff Law Firms - According to ISS Securities Class Action Services
To learn more about KSF, you may visit www.ksfcounsel.com.
Contact:
Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC
Lewis Kahn, Managing Partner
[email protected]
1-877-515-1850
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The U.S. health insurance industry, commonly referred to as the Health Maintenance Organization (HMO), benefits from a set of diversified, cost-effective plans that generate steady premium income and secure contract renewals. However, regulatory changes could tighten Medicaid eligibility and reduce ACA enrollment, affecting membership and reimbursements. Demand for Medicare products should remain strong as the U.S. population ages, supporting enrollment and premium growth. Investments in telehealth, AI, cloud computing and data analytics are improving efficiency, patient engagement and long-term revenue prospects despite increasing near-term costs. HMOs are also pursuing strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to expand market presence and diversify operations. Industry leaders such as UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) , The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) , Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) , Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) and Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) are well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable growth dynamics.
About the Industry The Zacks HMO industry consists of entities (either private or public) that take care of subscribers’ basic and supplemental health services. Players in this space primarily assume risks and assign health and medical insurance policy premiums. Industry participants also provide administrative and managed-care services for self-funded insurance. Services are generally offered via a network of approved care providers (called in-network), which include primary care physicians, clinical facilities, hospitals and specialists. However, out-of-network exceptions are made during emergencies or when medically necessary. Health insurance plans can be availed through private purchases, social insurance or social welfare programs.
4 Trends Shaping the Future of the HMO Industry Diversified Offerings Support Enrolment Stability: Health insurers continue to strengthen their membership base by offering diversified, cost-effective plans with enhanced benefits. These offerings support steady enrollment growth, generate consistent premium income and often lead to contract wins and renewals from federal and state agencies. However, gains from diversified products are expected to only partly offset the expected Medicaid membership declines resulting from growing regulatory challenges following the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The legislation introduced stricter Medicaid eligibility checks, work requirements and reduced federal funding. These measures, coupled with the absence of ACA subsidy extensions, are likely to reduce enrollment and pressure margins, prompting insurers to focus more on higher-margin commercial plans, while anticipated Medicare Advantage reimbursement rate increases in 2026 may provide some support.
An Aging U.S. Population: Medicare plans are specifically designed to meet the healthcare needs of individuals aged 65 and older, and an aging U.S. population is expected to drive sustained demand for these products. As the baby boomer generation enters retirement and life expectancy continues to increase, health insurers are well-positioned to benefit and generate higher premium revenues. To effectively serve this demographic, insurers maintain broad networks of healthcare providers, including physicians, hospitals, pharmacies and ancillary care organizations, while some also operate dedicated senior-focused care centers that deliver personalized, high-quality services tailored to the unique medical and wellness needs of older adults.
Digital Transformation and Technological Innovation: The HMO industry continues to strengthen its investment in virtual healthcare solutions, or telehealth services, as digital transformation reshapes the healthcare landscape. Technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered chatbots, voice assistants, mobile health applications, robotics, cloud computing and advanced data analytics are revolutionizing the way healthcare services are delivered, allowing patients to receive timely care from the comfort of their homes. This shift not only eases the strain on the U.S. healthcare system by reducing hospital visits and admissions but also enhances patient experience and care accessibility. While the adoption of advanced technologies may initially increase costs for health insurers, the resulting gains are expected to support stronger and more sustainable revenue growth over the long term.
Strategic Expansion Via Mergers and Acquisitions: In addition to embracing technological advancements, HMOs frequently engage in M&A to expand their capabilities, penetrate new markets, strengthen their foothold in existing regions, grow their membership base and enhance their nationwide reach. These strategic transactions also promote business diversification, enabling companies to maintain a competitive edge within the industry. Following the Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2025, borrowing conditions have become more favorable. Lower financing costs are expected to encourage greater M&A activity.
Zacks Industry Rank Instills Optimism The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates bright near-term prospects. The Zacks Medical-HMOs industry, which is housed within the broader Zacks Medical sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #27, which places it in the top 11% of 246 Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than two to one.
The industry’s positioning in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a positive earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate.
Before we present a few stocks that you may want to buy or retain in your portfolio, let’s look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Underperforms S&P 500, Outperforms Sector The Zacks Medical-HMO industry has gained 17.3% in the past year compared with the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s 31.3% growth. The Zacks Medical sector rallied 2.8% in the same time frame.
One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Industry's Current Valuation Based on the forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is commonly used for valuing medical stocks, the industry trades at 16.66X compared with the S&P 500’s 22.17X and the sector’s 19.33X.
Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 19.57X and as low as 11.58X, with the median being at 16.14X, as the chart below shows.
Forward 12-Month Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
5 Stocks to Keep a Close Eye On We present five stocks from the space, either carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold). Considering the current industry scenario, it might be prudent for investors to buy or retain these stocks in their portfolio, as these are well-placed to generate growth in the long haul.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Centene: Based in Missouri, Centene continues to benefit from strong momentum in its Medicare and Medicaid businesses, supported by numerous contract awards and steady membership expansion. The growing aging population in the United States remains a key driver of demand for Medicare Advantage plans, reinforcing the strength of Centene’s Medicare segment. This Zacks Rank #1 company also pursues strategic growth through acquisitions and provider partnerships. Management projects premium and service revenues within $171-$175 billion for 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centene’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.47 per share, which indicates a 66.8% rise from the year-ago figure. CNC’s earnings outpaced estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark once, the average being 74.90%.
Price & Consensus: CNC
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Molina Healthcare: This California-based health insurer develops affordable Medicare and Medicaid plans, enriched with extensive benefits, which have consistently led to contract wins. These contracts have contributed to a steadily growing customer base for the Zacks Rank #2 company. Management expects the 2026 premium revenue outlook to be approximately $42 billion. The company continues to strengthen its market position through acquisitions, including ConnectiCare in 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $5.23 per share. The consensus mark for MOH’s 2026 earnings has moved 0.4% north over the past 30 days. MOH’s earnings beat estimates in one of the last four quarters and missed the mark thrice.
Price & Consensus: MOH
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
UnitedHealth Group: Minnesota-based UnitedHealth Group continues to deliver solid revenue growth, driven by the strong performance of its UnitedHealthcare and Optum segments. UnitedHealthcare benefits from enhanced Medicare and Medicaid offerings that combine affordability with attractive benefits. Optum remains a key growth engine, leveraging strategic acquisitions, advanced technology and data-driven healthcare solutions to enhance care delivery and operational efficiency. Additionally, continued focus on mergers and acquisitions, coupled with expanding telehealth capabilities, strengthens the nationwide footprint of this Zacks Rank #3 company.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealth Group’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $18.29 per share, which implies 11.9% growth from the year-ago figure. UNH’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 0.84%.
Price & Consensus: UNH
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Cigna: Based in Connecticut, the company continues to demonstrate strong growth, supported by the robust performance of its two key business segments—Evernorth and Cigna Healthcare. Evernorth benefits from its comprehensive portfolio of specialty pharmacy services, while Cigna Healthcare leverages its broad customer base across both the U.S. Government and U.S. Commercial markets. This Zacks Rank #3 company further enhances its market position and growth prospects through strategic acquisitions and partnerships with leading healthcare organizations, while continuously expanding its product offerings.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $30.38 per share, indicating 1.8% growth from the prior-year figure. CI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 1.86%.
Price & Consensus: CI
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Humana: Headquartered in Kentucky, Humana has delivered steady growth, driven by increasing premium income and a strong membership base across its Medicare and Medicaid segments. The strong execution of these programs has enabled this Zacks Rank #3 company to win new contracts and successfully renew existing agreements with federal and state government agencies. Through its CenterWell platform, Humana continues to focus on meeting the evolving healthcare needs of the nation’s growing senior population. Additionally, strategic acquisitions such as Family Physicians Group, iCare and Inclusa have strengthened the company’s business diversification efforts and expanded its geographic reach.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $9.01 per share. The consensus mark for 2025 revenues implies 25.3% growth from the year-ago actual. HUM’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 3.80%.
Price & Consensus: HUM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Health insurers are running higher in Thursday afternoon trading after a wave of bullish Wall Street analyst notes on the managed-care sector, centered on UnitedHealth, citing softer medical cost and utilization trends plus potential AI efficiency upside. Humana (NYSE:HUM | HUM Price Prediction) stock is leading the move, up 6% to $348, with UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) stock up 5% to $396 and Cigna (NYSE:CI) stock up 4% to $282.
The catalyst is a fresh cluster of analyst actions framing managed care as a margin-recovery story. The thesis: utilization is moderating, medical loss ratios are improving, and artificial intelligence could unlock meaningful efficiency gains across the group.
Healthcare more broadly is participating. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV) is up 3% on the session, signaling the rally is concentrated in managed care but spilling into adjacent groups.
Analyst Upgrades Center on UnitedHealth [stock_chart symbol=”NYSE:UNH”]
Morgan Stanley’s Erin Wright raised UnitedHealth’s price target to $453 from $395 and maintained an Overweight rating. Wright noted that managed care stocks have been “grinding higher” on emerging signs of softer utilization trends, and estimated that AI-driven efficiencies could deliver 45% average earnings-per-share upside for managed care organizations as efficiency scales.
Bank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck upgraded UnitedHealth stock to Buy from Neutral and raised his price target to $450 from $420, citing improving medical cost trends and a favorable Q2 2026 earnings setup. Fischbeck stated that UnitedHealth should lead a broader rally of managed care organizations if utilization trends continue to moderate.
Truist raised its UnitedHealth share-price target to $440 from $395 and kept a Buy rating, citing favorable Q1 medical cost trends versus consensus and embedded earnings potential tied to margin recovery in the government businesses. A separate Morgan Stanley note framed UnitedHealth, CVS Health (NYSE:CVS), and Cigna as managed-care companies that could benefit from utilization trends and AI upside.
Sector-Wide Lift Pulls Peers Along The optimism is reaching beyond UnitedHealth. CVS Health is benefiting from the same softer-cost narrative, with its Q1 2026 medical benefit ratio improving to 85% from 87% and Health Care Benefits adjusted operating income surging 53% to $3.04 billion.
Humana’s recent strength stands out among the three names. Humana stock is up 37% over the past month and 28% year-to-date, supported by Q1 2026 results showing an insurance segment benefit ratio of 89% and medical and pharmacy cost trends slightly better than expectations across new and existing membership.
However, Cigna is a different story. The stock is down 2% year-to-date and down 10% over the past year, so today’s bid is more of a recovery bounce than a continuation. Cigna’s Q1 2026 medical care ratio still improved to 80% from 82% prior year, and management raised its full-year 2026 adjusted income from operations outlook to at least $30.35 per share.
UnitedHealth’s Supporting Signals UnitedHealth has additional tailwinds beyond the analyst notes. On June 3, UnitedHealth’s board authorized a dividend of $2.32 per share, payable June 23. The company’s Q1 2026 revenue came in at $111.7 billion, with adjusted earnings of $7.23 per share, surpassing the $6.61 estimate.
The medical cost ratio (MCR) improvement is the centerpiece. UnitedHealth’s MCR improved 90 basis points to 84%, a meaningful inflection after a difficult 2025. According to Koyfin data cited in reporting, 22 of 28 analysts rate UnitedHealth stock as a Buy or higher, five rate it as a Hold, and one rates it as a Sell.
Retail sentiment is firming up, as well. Sentiment surrounding UNH stock on Stocktwits improved to neutral from bearish over the prior 24 hours, consistent with the bid showing up in the tape today.
What to Watch Now The key question is whether utilization trends keep moderating into the second quarter. The Q2 2026 earnings setup that Bank of America flagged could be the next major test for the thesis, and investors can size their positions accordingly while the data evolves.
For Humana shareholders, the question is whether the month-long run can hold after such a strong move. Meanwhile, for Cigna shareholders, today’s bounce may signal the start of mean reversion, but the year-to-date laggard status means traders may stay selective until momentum builds.
The UnitedHealth dividend will be paid on June 23, giving income-focused holders a near-term catalyst. Watch for whether the broader managed-care rally has legs, or whether today’s lift fades into the close as profit-takers trim their exposure.
On June 04, 2026, Humana Inc (HUM) shares rose 6.8% to a current price of $349.80. The stock has seen significant price performance recently, with a 52-week ran
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, /PRNewswire/ -- Halper Sadeh LLC, an investor rights law firm, is investigating whether certain officers and directors of Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) breached their fiduciary duties to shareholders.
If you currently own Humana stock and are a long-term shareholder, you may be able to seek corporate governance reforms, the return of funds back to the company, a court-approved financial incentive award, or other relief and benefits. Please click here to learn more about your legal rights and options or contact Daniel Sadeh or Zachary Halper at (212) 763-0060 or [email protected] or [email protected].
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