Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,155.94 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,165.15 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 95,129.52 per tola from PHP 95,236.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,155.94
10 Grams
81,559.41
Tola
95,129.52
Troy Ounce
253,678.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 497.03 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 497.70 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,797.23 per tola from SAR 5,805.06 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
497.03
10 Grams
4,970.27
Tola
5,797.23
Troy Ounce
15,459.55
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3430 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The UK government leadership transition and growing expectations of further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes underpin the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD).
Andy Burnham’s path to becoming the next UK prime minister looks certain after a vast majority of Labour MPs formally nominated him to be the next party leader. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that 322 of 403 Labour members of Parliament voted for Burnham at the end of the first day of the party’s leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer. Burnham is expected to formally become Prime Minister on July 20.
Traders have ramped up bets on the BoE interest rate hikes amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) BoE rate increase by year-end, most likely in December, according to Reuters.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a modest bullish bias as it sits above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA. The pair is edging higher toward the upper Bollinger band, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers just below the 60 mark, suggesting firm but not overstretched upside momentum as price grinds higher within the broader range.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the upper Bollinger band near 1.3475, and a daily close above this cap would open the way for the April 15 high of 1.3579. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 1.3405. A deeper pullback would expose the Bollinger midline near 1.3305, while the lower band around 1.3130 marks a more distant floor guarding the broader uptrend structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold (XAU/USD) reverses a modest Asian session dip to the $4,109-$4,108 region on Friday, though it lacks bullish conviction. The US Dollar (USD) selling remains unabated for the third consecutive day in the wake of Wednesday's less hawkish FOMC Minutes and offers some support to the commodity. However, prospects of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in 2026 remain active. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, could limit USD losses, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of the recovery from a one-week low set on Wednesday.
The minutes from the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers were divided over the direction of interest rates. The minutes further stated that many participants indicated the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. Fed officials, however, indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted as the upside risk to inflation remains elevated. Moreover, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool suggests that traders are still pricing in a nearly 85% probability of at least one Fed rate hike by the year-end.
Meanwhile, a fresh escalation of tensions between the US and Iran brings the spotlight back on oil prices and what it could mean for inflation and the global rates outlook. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that it carried out airstrikes on Thursday, hitting 90 Iranian military targets – including air defense systems, missile sites and naval logistics infrastructure along Iran's coastline. Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at US military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait, and also warned that further American attacks would trigger a wider regional response, significantly complicating diplomatic efforts.
The market anxiety, however, subsided after US President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran had called to make a deal with the US. Adding to this, a White House official signaled that the US is still committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran. The mixed signals keep investors on edge, suggesting that a strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the Gold price has formed a near-term bottom. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register modest weekly losses as the market focus remains glued to further developments surrounding the US-Iran saga.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold seems vulnerable while below 200-day SMA and descending channel resistanceThe precious metal holds within a broader downward parallel channel and below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps the near-term bias bearish despite improving momentum. The channel’s upper boundary near $4,156.03 is the first structural barrier ahead of the 200-day SMA currently around $4,493.66, reinforcing a cap above spot.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive, and the MACD line has pushed above the signal line, hinting at a corrective rebound within the broader downtrend. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45 still reflects only modest demand rather than a decisive bullish shift.
On the downside, the current day’s swing low, around $4,109-$4,108, acts as a nearby pivot, with stronger support aligned with the channel floor around $3,758.88, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if the bearish pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.18%-0.24%-0.57%-0.16%-0.28%-0.51%-0.38%EUR0.18%-0.06%-0.37%0.03%-0.11%-0.34%-0.20%GBP0.24%0.06%-0.33%0.09%-0.05%-0.27%-0.15%JPY0.57%0.37%0.33%0.41%0.28%0.03%0.16%CAD0.16%-0.03%-0.09%-0.41%-0.13%-0.37%-0.24%AUD0.28%0.11%0.05%-0.28%0.13%-0.23%-0.13%NZD0.51%0.34%0.27%-0.03%0.37%0.23%0.12%CHF0.38%0.20%0.15%-0.16%0.24%0.13%-0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 538.41 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 539.29 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,279.84 per tola from MYR 6,290.15 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
538.41
10 Grams
5,384.51
Tola
6,279.84
Troy Ounce
16,746.26
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers for the third consecutive day and touches a fresh weekly high, around the 1.1460 area, during the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) is seen prolonging the less hawkish FOMC Minutes-inspired slide and turning out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the currency pair. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit further USD losses and cap spot prices.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to find acceptance or build on its strength beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. Moreover, the recovery from the year-to-date low has been along an upward-sloping channel, which now seems to constitute the formation of a bearish flag pattern, leaving the recent gains capped within the broader corrective structure.
Momentum indicators, however, remain constructive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index is hovering just below 60, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is above zero and showing a modestly positive histogram. This suggests downside pressure is limited while the EUR/USD pair stays supported by the trend-channel support, currently pegged near the 1.1400 mark, which should act as a pivotal point.
A convincing breakdown below the said handle would expose the deeper structural supports clustered near 1.1327–1.1323. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period EMA at 1.1491, followed closely by the channel top at 1.1494. A sustained strength and acceptance above this zone would open the way toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.1524 and the 50.0% level around 1.1586, if the bullish momentum extends further.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,617.90 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,633.71 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 147,173.10 per tola from INR 147,357.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,617.90
10 Grams
126,178.70
Tola
147,173.10
Troy Ounce
392,461.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The immediate resistance remains at the $4,200 to $4,280 area. However, a break above $4,280 will push the price towards the $4,370 and $4,500 areas on 4-hour chart. The short term price action also shows that a break above $4,500 will likely open the door for a rally towards $5,000.
Silver Price Forecast: XAGUSD Breakout Eyes $72 XAGUSD Daily Chart Shows Strong Rebound From $55 The daily chart for spot silver also shows a strong rebound from $55. The price is consolidating between $55 and $64. A break of these levels will likely define the next move. Due to the importance of the $55 support zone, the price may break the $64 level and push towards $72. The $72 level is the key resistance level and a break above this level will likely open the door for a rally towards the $89 region.
GPIF proposal sparks capital repatriation hopes Long-dated JGBs lead powerful relief rally Imported inflation strengthens BOJ normalisation case USD/JPY nears trendline support Japanese assets rally on GPIF proposal Japanese assets are rallying after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government wants to encourage Japan's GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, to invest substantially more domestically.
The reason markets are reacting so strongly is because this isn't just any pension fund. The GPIF manages almost ¥300 trillion, or around US$1.8 trillion. If even a small portion of that portfolio is redirected towards domestic assets, you're potentially talking about a meaningful shift in global capital flows, with money coming back into Japan to buy yen-denominated investments.
Katayama's comments come after a bruising week for Japan's debt markets, with long-dated government bond yields surging to multi-decade highs. At the same time, the yen fell to its weakest levels in decades on a trade-weighted basis, underscoring the broad-based nature of its decline. If the GPIF were to increase its allocation to domestic assets, it could help support both the bond market and yen.
And that's exactly where the market reacted first.
JGB long-end yields tumble
Source: TradingView
Long-dated Japanese government bonds are leading the rally, particularly in the 10 to 20-year sector, which had borne the brunt of this week's sell-off. The subsequent flattening of the curve reflects not only the prospect of stronger domestic demand, but also stronger-than-expected Japanese producer price data. Prices rose 7.1% from a year earlier in June, beating expectations. Import prices within the report also surged 29.7%, reinforcing the inflationary impact of the weaker yen and adding to the case for the Bank of Japan to continue gradually normalising monetary policy.
While today's developments are supportive for Japanese bonds, they don't alter the broader fundamental backdrop. Much of the upward pressure on Japanese yields has reflected global forces, particularly the rise in US real yields. Even after the recent backup in nominal yields, Japanese real yields remain negative, limiting their appeal relative to overseas bond markets. That's why today's GPIF announcement is important, but it doesn't completely offset the broader forces that have been weighing on the market.
Nuance needed for Nikkei 225
Source: TradingView
At first glance, the prospect of the GPIF increasing its allocation to domestic assets looks supportive for Japanese equities. However, there's an important caveat. If the announcement is accompanied by a sustained appreciation in the yen, it could create headwinds for Japan's export-oriented companies, tempering some of the positive impact from stronger domestic institutional demand.
Looking at the chart, the Nikkei continues to coil within what appears to be a falling wedge, a bullish continuation pattern that points to the potential for an upside breakout.
Earlier this week, the index completed a dragonfly doji after a false break beneath wedge support before rebounding strongly from the intersection of the 50-day moving average with 66,000, the latter a level that acted as both support and resistance in June. That failed breakdown leaves the focus on the topside.
A break above wedge resistance would strengthen the bullish case, bringing a retest of the record high at 73,520 into view. On the way, 72,000 may provide resistance, having capped gains on two occasions in June.
The oscillators paint a more neutral picture. RSI is sitting around the 50 level after posting a series of lower highs, while MACD remains in positive territory but has flattened noticeably. Together, they suggest upside momentum has moderated, although not sufficiently to undermine the broader bullish technical setup.
USD/JPY unwind gathers pace
Source: TradingView
The final leg of the story is the yen. If Japanese institutions begin reallocating capital back home, that naturally creates demand for the currency, helping explain why USD/JPY has pulled back from this week's highs.
Positioning may also be amplifying the move. Speculative investors are already carrying one of the largest net short yen positions in more than a decade, according to the latest Commitment of Traders data. That leaves the market vulnerable to bouts of short covering whenever positive yen catalysts emerge.
Looking at the chart, USD/JPY has slipped beneath not only the 2024 high at 161.95, but also 161.50, a level that acted as both resistance and support earlier this year. The pair is now approaching uptrend support dating back to the middle of May, which comes in around 161 today.
A break below would expose 160.73, the former 2026 high set in late April and successfully defended on two occasions in early July, making it an important support zone to watch. A move below that area, and particularly beneath 160.50, would open the door for a test of the 50-day moving average, located around 160.
Momentum indicators are also beginning to soften. RSI has rolled over after posting a series of lower highs and is now back around the neutral 50 level. MACD has produced a bearish crossover while remaining in positive territory, suggesting upside momentum is not only fading but could be on the cusp of shifting in favour of the bears.
USD/JPY started a fresh increase but struggled near 162.80. A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 161.60 on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin could gain bullish momentum if it settles above $65,000. WTI Crude Oil prices recovered some losses before the bears appeared near $76.20. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar gained bullish momentum after it settled above $160.80 against the US Dollar. USD/JPY even climbed above 162.00 before it faced rejection.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair again struggled to surpass the 162.70 and 162.80 levels. It is now correcting some gains and might dip toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from the 160.49 swing low to the 162.70 high.
If there are more losses, the pair might find support near 161.60. Besides, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 161.60, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
The first major support could be near 160.80 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 160.80 might send the pair toward 160.00. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 158.80.
On the upside, the bears might remain active near 162.80. The next major resistance might be 163.40. A close above 163.40 could spark a sharp increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 165.00.
Looking at Bitcoin, the price could start a fresh increase, but a close above $65,000 is important for upside continuation.
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NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the long-term support level 0.5600 (which stopped the strong downtrend d in November) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone started the active medium-term impulse sequence (3).
NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.5780 (former support from the start of June).
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On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7989 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8036 and 6.7931 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Manufacturing survey delivers blockbuster upside surprise RBNZ tightening cycle gains fresh credibility RBA rate expectations continue to unwind AUD/NZD technical breakdown gains momentum NZD/USD breakout shifts focus higher New Zealand may be on holiday, but the Kiwi dollar certainly wasn't on Thursday. It topped the G10 FX leaderboard after strong data reinforced the RBNZ's message from earlier this week that further rate hikes are likely.
Factory floor fires up The catalyst for the outperformance was a blockbuster BNZ PMI. The headline index surged to 59.7 in June, its highest reading since July 2021. Excluding the pandemic rebound, it was the strongest result since May 2017, underpinned by a sharp lift in new orders, production, deliveries and employment. Respondents reported stronger sales, growing order books and renewed confidence, outweighing concerns about Middle East tensions and cost-of-living pressures.
A hawkish roadmap The survey's release was timely, arriving just days after the RBNZ lifted its cash rate to 2.5%, the first increase of a new tightening cycle. Policymakers retained a hawkish bias, saying "some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required" to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target midpoint.
Speaking after the decision, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said they were "feeling our way" as they sought to identify New Zealand's neutral cash rate, the level where it is neither stimulatory nor restrictive on economic activity. She suggested it may sit somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5%, implying 3% may be the Bank's initial destination for policy.
Mind the gap That’s important because relative rate expectations have long been one of the key macro drivers for AUD/NZD, making recent shifts in pricing on either side of the Tasman particularly important.
Source: Bloomberg
While the RBNZ has just embarked on a fresh tightening cycle, the RBA is likely much closer to the end of its own, or perhaps already there, after lifting its cash rate three times, unwinding the easing conducted in 2025. Although it has left the door open to further increases, softer domestic economic data and easing energy prices have seen markets scale back expectations for additional tightening. Just a few months ago, traders were flirting with the idea that the cash rate may need to near 5%. Today, there's only around an even chance of another 25 basis point increase to 4.60%.
Source: Tradingview
Thursday's data saw the Australia-New Zealand two-year yield spread compress by 14 basis points, the largest one-day decline since March 9. While the catalyst was New Zealand's stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI, the broader narrowing in spreads has been driven just as much by the steady unwinding of hawkish RBA pricing over recent months.
Connecting the dots The rates relationship is evident in the correlation matrix below, with Australia-New Zealand two-year yield spreads maintaining a consistently positive correlation with AUD/NZD across the past week, month and quarter.
Source: Tradingview
Energy prices have also been somewhat influential. While both Australia and New Zealand are heavily reliant on imported petroleum, Australia is also one of the world's largest LNG exporters. It's perhaps no surprise then that AUD/NZD has also maintained a strong positive correlation with LNG prices over the past month, particularly over the past week, reflecting the terms of trade impact of fluctuations in gas prices on the Australian dollar.
AUD/NZD trendline snaps
Source: Tradingview
It's not only fundamentals that are pointing to the risk of Kiwi outperformance against the Australian dollar, with the technical picture increasingly aligning with that view. Thursday saw AUD/NZD break below its June 2025 uptrend, doing so emphatically while also slicing through the 100-day moving average, a level it had remained above since July last year.
The breakdown follows the formation of a series of lower highs and the completion of what resembles an evening star bearish reversal after the pair spent several sessions flirting with the 50-day moving average earlier this week. The question now is whether Thursday's breakdown attracts another wave of selling on Friday.
The immediate focus is the June 10 low at 1.2053. Should that give way, attention shifts to 1.2000, a level that's repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent months, followed by 1.1950. Below that sits the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May 2025-June 2026 bull move, a level the pair also spent considerable time trading around back in March. The 200-day moving average at 1.1813, sitting just above the former breakout level at 1.1797, shapes as a more ambitious downside target.
Overhead, the broken June 2025 uptrend and 100-day moving average, located just below 1.2100, combine with horizontal resistance at 1.2115 to create an important resistance zone should buyers attempt to regain control.
Momentum indicators continue to favour the bears. RSI (14) is trending lower below 50 without yet reaching oversold territory, while MACD has crossed below its signal line and continues to diverge in negative territory, favouring selling into strength and downside breaks.
NZD/USD triangle delivers
Source: Tradingview
There are also signs the improving backdrop is beginning to spill over into NZD/USD. As noted yesterday, the pair was threatening to break higher from an ascending triangle, a move that's since played out through the European and North American sessions.
The breakout shifts the focus to 0.5774, a level that's repeatedly acted as both support and resistance this year. A sustained move above there would bring a cluster of key moving averages into view, starting with the 50-day moving average at 0.5815. While the 50-day moving average has recently crossed below the 200-day moving average, completing a death cross, that signal is being overridden by the improving fundamental backdrop and recent price action. Should that view prove misplaced and a retracement unfold, the former breakout level at 0.5724 is the first area to watch for support.
Momentum indicators point to the potential for further gains. RSI (14) continues to trend higher and has reclaimed the neutral 50 level, while MACD has completed a bullish crossover. Although it remains below zero, it's continuing to push higher, suggesting the bearish momentum that dragged NZD/USD to fresh 2026 lows in late June has dissipated and may be in the early stages of reversing, pointing to the potential for an extension of Thursday's breakout.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to around $4,120 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as traders weigh a resumption of war in the Middle East.
The White House signaled that it is still committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran, even though US President Donald Trump’s declared earlier this week that the framework deal to end the Iran war was “over” after Tehran carried out strikes against vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and against neighboring countries.
However, uncertainty remains high as Trump said that strikes would “get much worse” if Tehran again attacked ships in the strait. On Thursday, the Islamic Republic targeted US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Jordan intercepted eight Iran-launched missiles, according to Axios.
Escalating tensions between the US and Iran could drive crude oil prices higher, stoking inflation fears and forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance.
The release of minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, which was Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first, reflected a divided central bank not sure how to proceed on rates without more information on inflation.
The minutes said that “many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year,” while also saying that “many other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range.”
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The British Pound advances some 0.50% against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, as risk appetite improves after US President Donald Trump said that Iran had reached out and that it wants to make a deal badly. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades at 217.76, near year-to-date (YTD) highs.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY has reached 18-year highs, last seen in February 2008, opening the door to challenging the January 2008 monthly peak levels.
Price action shows the market is respecting a series of higher highs and higher lows, an indication of further upside. Momentum favours buyers, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and about to enter overbought territory, indicating further upside.
The first resistance for GBP/JPY is 218.00. Once cleared, it opens the door to challenge key psychological levels like 219.00, 220.00 and the January 2008 high at 222.76.
Conversely, a potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange markets could open the door for a deeper pullback, with the first support level seen at the July 7 daily low of 216.38. Below this area, the next support is the 216.00 mark. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be a downslope resistance trendline that turns into support around the 214.70-215.00 area.
GBP/JPY Price Chart — Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%-0.46%0.65%-0.17%-0.08%-0.82%0.44%EUR-0.06%-0.54%0.58%-0.24%-0.10%-0.91%0.34%GBP0.46%0.54%1.02%0.29%0.42%-0.36%0.88%JPY-0.65%-0.58%-1.02%-0.84%-0.61%-1.45%-0.24%CAD0.17%0.24%-0.29%0.84%0.21%-0.61%0.58%AUD0.08%0.10%-0.42%0.61%-0.21%-0.81%0.43%NZD0.82%0.91%0.36%1.45%0.61%0.81%1.25%CHF-0.44%-0.34%-0.88%0.24%-0.58%-0.43%-1.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Silver price surged by over 2.70% on Thursday, climbing near $60.00 as US Treasury yields retreated and the US Dollar dove by over 0.12%. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $59.94, after bouncing off daily lows of $57.59.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe downtrend remains intact, with the structure of lower highs and lower lows intact, even though the white metal has bounced off weekly lows below $58.00.
In the short term, momentum favours buyers, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but it remains below the 50-neutral level, suggesting a potential resumption of the downtrend.
If XAG/USD decisively clears the $60.00 figure, a move towards the July 6 swing high is on the cards. Once breached, buyers could challenge a downslope resistance trendline at around $64.70, before launching a strong attack on the confluence of the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $70.25
On the flip side, and also the path of least resistance, if Silver drops below the current week’s low of 57.22, it paves the way to test the June 24 cycle low of $55.63. Below this level, the next area of interest would be the November 12, 2025, daily high turned support at $54.39.
XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Spot gold weekly chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Resistance Levels Define the Next Breakout Test Another sign of strength would be indicated by a rise above Tuesday’s high of $4,181. That would put gold more clearly above both the 20-day average and the long-term trendline, which is currently positioned nearby. A close above Tuesday’s high would confirm strength by reclaiming both trend indicators. Next, a decisive breakout above $4,203 would be needed to trigger a bullish continuation, with the first primary target anchored by the falling 50-day moving average, currently at $4,362. Both the 50% retracement at $4,358 and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection for a small rising ABCD pattern near $4,354 provide additional confluence.
Bullish Setup Faces a Critical Support Test Conversely, if dynamic trend resistance continues to hold, the recent bullish reversal attempt could fail. A drop below Thursday’s low of $4,054 and Wednesday’s low of $4,021 would weaken the developing higher swing low structure. That could lead to another test of support near the corrective low of $3,942 or a decline toward the next lower support target zone of $3,886. Therefore, the ability of gold to reclaim nearby resistance levels will likely determine whether the recent bounce evolves into a broader recovery or another leg lower within the correction.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
The Mexican peso continues to face difficult trading sessions. Over the last 3 trading sessions, average USD/MXN movements have posted a gain of more than 1.00% in favor of the U.S. dollar, which continues to reflect weakness around the peso.
This scenario did not fully change after the release of Mexico’s inflation data, which showed a significant decline. This new reading could start to affect expectations for higher interest rates for longer, which in turn could limit the strength of the Mexican peso. In this context, USD/MXN could continue to show a phase of indecision or even more relevant buying pressure over the next few sessions.
Inflation day for Mexico During today’s session, Mexico’s annual average inflation data was released. Initially, the consensus expected a reading near 3.52%, but the official figure surprised to the downside and came in at 3.37%, below expectations and at its lowest level in the last 5 years.
This data is relevant because it marks a significant decline compared to previous months. It also confirms a downward trend in the consumer price index, which has been falling from this year’s high near 4.59%. With this new release, inflation is moving increasingly closer to the central bank’s target of around 3.00%.
Source: TradingEconomics
This scenario could be important for the Mexican peso’s movements, as one of its main advantages against the U.S. dollar has been the wide rate differential between both central banks. While the Bank of Mexico keeps its interest rate around 6.5%, the Federal Reserve maintains a benchmark rate near 3.75%.
For months, this differential has positioned the bond market and Mexican peso-denominated investments as potentially more attractive options compared to dollar-denominated investments. To some extent, this has helped sustain demand for the Mexican peso.
Source: TradingEconomics
However, the outlook could start to change. The latest inflation release marks an important shift in the price dynamic and could reduce the need for additional interest rate increases in Mexico. It could even gradually open room for rate cuts from the current 6.5% level over the coming months.
For this reason, the latest data could point to a calmer Bank of Mexico, with no need to deliver significant additional interest rate increases.
When comparing this potential dynamic with the Federal Reserve, the scenario is different. In the United States, inflation has not shown such significant declines, and CME Group’s probability table still points to a probability above 51.00% that, at the September 16 decision, the interest rate could move from the current 3.75% level toward a new 4.00% reference.
This suggests that the Federal Reserve could still maintain an aggressive stance over the coming months.
Source: CMEGROUP
This point is key because an important difference between both central banks is starting to emerge. While the market could begin to price in a calmer Banxico, the Federal Reserve remains close to a more aggressive scenario.
This combination could reduce the rate differential that has supported the Mexican peso over the last few months. For that reason, rather than strengthening the peso, the latest inflation data could suggest that, over time, peso-denominated investments may become less attractive compared to U.S. dollar-denominated investments.
If this central bank dynamic continues, the peso could struggle to recover ground consistently in the medium term. This could reflect not only a phase of indecision in USD/MXN, but also more relevant buying pressure over the coming trading weeks.
Technical outlook for USD/MXN
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Sideways range stronger than ever: Since February 2026, USD/MXN has not managed to define a clear direction or consolidate a more structured trend line. This has led to the formation of a relevant sideways range, with resistance near 17.92 and support around 17.10. As long as the pair fails to break out of these barriers, it will be difficult to confirm a firmer trend. For this reason, indecision could remain the dominant technical pattern over the coming trading weeks.
RSI: movements do not show significant short-term strength and remain close to the neutral 50 area. This suggests a balance between buying and selling impulses in the market, reinforcing the importance of the current indecision phase.
MACD: shows a similar reading, with the histogram remaining close to the 0 level. This reflects balance in the strength of short-term moving averages and confirms that indecision is still present in average USD/MXN movements. If this behavior persists, neutrality could remain relevant over the next few sessions. Key levels:
17.90 – Main resistance: This recent high zone remains the main bullish barrier above the 200-period simple moving average. Sustained moves toward this zone could mark the beginning of a more consistent buying bias and open room for the possible formation of a bullish trend line over the coming weeks.
17.52 – Current barrier: This is a relevant retracement level from recent weeks and an important neutral zone to watch. If price fails to move away from this level, the indecision phase could be reinforced, and the sideways range could extend as the dominant chart structure in the medium term.
17.10 – Relevant support: This zone corresponds to the 2026 lows and is currently the main bearish barrier. Moves toward this level could bring the selling bias back into focus and give continuity to the descending channel that remained the dominant structure months ago.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
The West Rebuilds While the East Pays Up Start with the number that spooks people. Silver held in COMEX warehouses that is actually pledged to settle futures contracts, the category exchanges call “registered,” climbed to about 93.0 million ounces on the July 6 report, against 233.0 million ounces of “eligible” metal (stored in the same vaults but not offered for delivery) for a combined 326.0 million ounces. Registered stock was near 82 million ounces in mid-June, so the deliverable pool has climbed by about 11 million ounces in three weeks. Read on its own, a rising deliverable pile looks like loosening.
It is not fresh metal arriving from mines. It is repositioning inside the system ahead of the active July delivery month, with eligible metal being reclassified into registered so it can settle contracts. The pool that traders watch is expanding on paper, and that is the part the West sees.
The East sees something else. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, silver traded at a premium of high single digits over the international price at the June 30 benchmark fixes, and that gap widened to roughly 11% by early July. A premium that large is a standing incentive to pull metal toward China, though it has to be read net of local taxes, currency, and import costs rather than treated as pure scarcity. Even discounted for those, a double-digit premium is the market’s clearest live signal of where physical silver is genuinely tight.
The two pictures are not contradictory. They describe one market with two speeds. Western holders are comfortable letting metal move into deliverable inventory because their own demand is soft: the largest silver exchange-traded fund, SLV, saw net outflows of about $606 million over the past month, roughly 10 million ounces of investment selling at current prices, and US retail stayed quiet, with 2026 American Silver Eagle premiums down around $5 to $8 a coin.
Chinese buyers, meanwhile, are paying up to secure the physical metal. Layer on Beijing’s July 1 move to enforce strategic-mineral export controls, under which silver is reportedly licensed, and the direction of travel sharpens: metal is being kept inside China while the West treats it as ample.
British Pound: Recovery tests key resistance against US Dollar – ScotiabankScotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is fractionally higher versus the US Dollar (USD), with sentiment improving after PM Starmer’s resignation announcement. They see support from a repriced Bank of England (BoE) rate path following the latest Oil rally and describe GBP/USD’s recovery as increasingly entrenched as it attempts to break above 1.3400 and trades within a 1.3350–1.3450 range.
"The pound is up fractionally vs. the USD and is a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as we head into Thursday’s NA session with focus still largely centered on broader developments in the absence of high-level domestic releases." Read more...
British Pound elevates despite firm US claimsGBP/USD trades higher near the 1.3400 area on Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) fails to find support from stronger-than-expected United States (US) jobless claims data and hawkish signals in the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below expectations of 218K and the previous revised 217K, while the four-week average eased to 218.75K from 222.5K. However, Continuing Jobless Claims rose slightly to 1.814 million from 1.806 million, suggesting that while layoffs remain limited, workers are still taking longer to find new jobs. Read more...
British Pound hits fresh three-week highs past 1.3400 as US Dollar pulls backThe British Pound (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, to hit fresh three–week highs right above 1.3400. The Greenback's pullback following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes and rumours about the resumption of the US-Iran negotiations are keeping the pair buoyed.
The US and Iran traded attacks for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but risk aversion remains contained so far, with markets hopeful that the negotiations will continue. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Thursday that Tehran “wants to make a deal so badly,” which suggests that the peace talks might resume soon. Read more...
Gold (XAU/USD) price advances during the North American session on Thursday, up over 1.30% as the US Dollar (USD) retreats due to falling Oil prices amid easing tensions in the Middle East. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,132 after bouncing off weekly lows of around $4,021 hit on Wednesday.
XAU/USD rises as Middle East tensions ease, pressuring DollarThe US-Iran conflict grabbed the headlines during the last two days as both parties exchanged attacks, threatening to derail negotiations that had been scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Saturday before the last escalation. Oil prices jumped, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, reclaiming the $ 75.00-per-barrel barrier, but retreated on Thursday.
The jump in energy prices grew speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise borrowing costs to tame already high inflation near 4.2% as reported in May. Now eyes turn to next week, with the release of inflation data on the consumer and producer sides, along with the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance at the US Congress.
Fed expected to rise in SeptemberWorth noting that the Fed’s last meeting minutes showed a slightly hawkish central bank, as most officials see a scenario for a rate hike, but chose to hold interest rates. As of writing, money markets are pricing in a 62% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalNew York Fed President John Williams stated that inflation is still "far too high" and emphasized the importance of considering energy prices when shaping monetary policy. He reaffirmed the central bank’s goal to bring inflation down to 2%, underlining that policy decisions "must remain” guided by data.
Bullion buyers are capitalizing on falling US Treasury yields, as the 10-year T-note is down five basis points at 4.529%. This is weighing on the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is down 0.21%.
The DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is at 100.85, near weekly lows of 100.78.
The drop in US yields is a consequence of the dip in Oil prices. An escalation of the Middle East conflict could trigger a recovery and weigh on Gold prices, which, despite benefiting from inflationary scenarios, tend to edge lower amid high-interest-rate environments.
Next week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), jobless claims and housing data.
HSBC reduces Gold price forecastOn Thursday, HSBC lowered its average Gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $4,560 and $4,925, from previous estimates of $4,864 and $5,000.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold recovers $4,100, eyes on $4,300Gold remains bearishly biased, despite posting a two-day peak at $4,138. In the short term, momentum has turned bullish, but if buyers want more reassurance that the downtrend has finished, they must push bullion prices past a downsloping resistance trendline at around $4,190-$4,215.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), although bearish, is closing to the 50-neutral level, which, once pierced, would show that buyers are gaining traction.
If XAU/USD clears $4,200, the next resistance is at $ 4,300. On further strength, the next stop is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,362. Above is the 50-day SMA at $4,492 ahead of $4,500.
Downwards, Gold must drop below the July 8 swing low of $4,021. Beneath lies the June 30 swing low of $3,941, followed by the October 28, 2025, swing low of $3,886.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold 090726 Daily Chart Gold rebounds as traders focus on the strong pullback in the oil markets. Oil prices are down by -4% as traders react to recent events in the Middle East.
According to recent reports, Iran sent oil tankers carrying 11 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. has continued to attack targets in Iran but did not impose a naval blockade of the country’s ports, so Iran rushed to sell its oil.
Iran has also attacked targets in the region in response to U.S. attacks, which were triggered by Iran’s attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent reports suggest that Qatar and Pakistan are ready to get back to their roles as mediators in order to facilitate negotiations between U.S. and Iran.
Falling oil prices provided support to gold prices as Treasury yields fell. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.16% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.53%. Lower yields are bullish for gold that pays no interest.
U.S. dollar pulled back against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders focused on falling Treasury yields. Weaker dollar provided additional support to gold markets.
The nearest resistance level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the $4180 – $4200 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at $4360 – $4380.
Silver Attempts To Settle Above The $60.00 Level Silver 090726 Daily Chart Silver rallied as gold/silver ratio pulled back towards the 68.50 level. Gold/silver ratio is moving lower when the appetite for risk is rising. In case gold/silver ratio settles below 68.50, it will head towards recent lows near the 66.00 level, which will be bullish for silver.
Currently, silver is trying to settle above the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00. If silver manages to settle above the $62.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance at $65.00 – $66.00.
On the support side, a move below the $60.00 level will open the way to the test of the support at $56.00 – $57.00. A move below the $56.00 level will show that silver markets are ready to gain additional downside momentum.
Platinum 090726 Daily Chart Platinum has also managed to gain upside momentum amid rising demand for precious metals. Palladium markets were up by +2.6%, providing additional support to platinum.
From the technical point of view, platinum attempts to settle above the resistance level at $1600 – $1620. If platinum manages to settle above the $1620 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the $1680 – $1700 range.
On the support side, platinum needs to settle back below the $1560 level to gain downside momentum in the near term. A move below the $1560 level will open the way to the test of the nearest support at $1500 – $1520. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
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Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is fractionally higher versus the US Dollar (USD), with sentiment improving after PM Starmer’s resignation announcement. They see support from a repriced Bank of England (BoE) rate path following the latest Oil rally and describe GBP/USD’s recovery as increasingly entrenched as it attempts to break above 1.3400 and trades within a 1.3350–1.3450 range.
Pound sentiment improves on policy repricing"The pound is up fractionally vs. the USD and is a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as we head into Thursday’s NA session with focus still largely centered on broader developments in the absence of high-level domestic releases."
"The recent recovery in sentiment remains important, signaling market confidence in the aftermath of PM Starmer’s June 22 resignation announcement."
"Fundamentally, the outlook for relative central bank policy is providing additional support as markets reprice the BoE’s rate path in light of the latest rally in oil prices."
"Neutral/bullish—the GBP’s recovery is looking even more entrenched as it stages its first meaningful attempt at breaking above recent resistance around 1.3400 and levels that roughly correspond to the 50 and 200 day MA’s."
"We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Since the final days of June, the Canadian dollar has been unable to build relevant strength against the U.S. dollar. Now, average USD/CAD movements remain close to 0.2% in the short term, showing a neutral bias that has become evident again in the behavior of both currencies.
For now, CAD has not managed to regain confidence ahead of the employment data release. An additional slowdown in this indicator could keep the Bank of Canada on a neutral policy path, limiting the support from higher rates and making it harder for the Canadian dollar to regain appeal in the short term.
In addition, new updates around the conflict in the Middle East could be key for USD strength. Together, these events could continue to highlight a phase of indecision, or even relevant buying pressure, around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
What to expect from employment in Canada? Tomorrow’s session is expected to bring the release of Canada’s employment change data. So far, expectations point to a significant decline from the previous reading, with the creation of around 11.2 thousand jobs in June. This figure would come in well below the May reading, which stood near 87.8 thousand jobs created.
Looking at the broader behavior of employment in Canada over the last few months, the data shows a mixed dynamic, with consistent signs of weakness. May was the only month that managed to post a solid figure, but overall, employment data has shown fragility. This trend could be confirmed with tomorrow’s release, especially if the result comes in below expectations, as it would reaffirm a relevant labor market problem in Canada compared to other countries where the slowdown is not as significant.
Source: TradingEconomics
This outlook could be relevant for the Bank of Canada, as weaker employment, or even a reading below expectations, could reduce the need to raise the interest rate, which currently remains around 2.25%. This could lead the central bank to maintain a wait-and-see stance before considering meaningful changes to monetary policy.
In fact, so far, the probability table shows an 88% chance that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the July 15 decision. For the September decision, a probability above 70% has also started to emerge that this dynamic will persist.
Source: Bankofcanadaodds
The employment data release is key. If the report confirms a sharper-than-expected slowdown, expectations for a neutral monetary policy stance from the Bank of Canada could be reinforced over the coming months.
This would limit the appeal of rates in Canada, especially compared to a Federal Reserve that is still approaching scenarios of potential rate hikes. In this context, the differential against the 3.75% rate in the United States could continue to favor USD-denominated investments over those denominated in CAD.
For this reason, a significant decline in employment change could maintain a phase of indecision or even relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
Does the Middle East matter? Another important event to consider is the situation in the Middle East. The latest updates have shown that the United States would be willing to sit down for negotiations, while Trump’s comments continue to point toward maintaining a diplomatic path.
However, an environment of confusion has developed, as during the last 2 sessions a new escalation of the conflict seemed inevitable amid fresh attacks. This has increased doubts over whether a potential peace agreement can take place in the short term.
In this scenario, the behavior of the U.S. dollar is key. The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength, showed a relevant increase above the 101-point area in previous sessions as new attacks returned. During the latest session, however, it weakened again amid the relative calm generated by additional comments from the United States.
Source: TradingEconomics
This point is important because, for months, the dollar has been considered a liquidity safe-haven currency during repeated escalations of the conflict. This could become relevant again if no concrete negotiations are seen in the short term.
In that scenario, additional safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar could appear, making it harder for the Canadian dollar to recover ground in the short term. This could also open the door to relevant buying pressure around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
Technical outlook for USD/CAD
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Bullish trend continues to dominate: Since the first days of May, USD/CAD has maintained a relevant bullish trend line. This structure has marked an important buying bias, also reinforced by the bullish crossover of the 50-period moving average above the 200-period moving average, signaling a shift from a bearish structure to a more relevant bullish structure. For now, there is no bearish correction strong enough to put this technical pattern at risk, which is why it remains the most important structure to watch and could continue to dominate movements over the next few sessions.
RSI: The RSI remains above the 50 level, suggesting that buying momentum has remained relevant over the last 14 sessions. If the indicator continues to hold above the neutral area, this could continue to reflect an important buying bias over the next few sessions.
TRIX: The TRIX line maintains a bullish slope above its neutral zone, reinforcing the presence of buying strength in long-term exponential moving averages and highlighting the importance of a broad buying bias. However, the curve has also started to flatten steadily, which may be signaling exhaustion in buying strength. This could reflect a relevant phase of indecision over the next few sessions or a possible pause in the buying bias seen in previous weeks.
Key levels:
1.42604 – Relevant resistance: This important high has not been seen consistently since April 2025 and represents the main short-term bullish barrier. Moves toward this zone would reinforce the current buying bias and could open room for an extension of the bullish trend line over the next few sessions.
1.41982 – Near-term barrier: This is the most relevant neutral and retracement zone from recent trading sessions. Price movements too close to this level could highlight consistent neutrality and even open room for a possible short-term sideways range.
1.40813 – Crucial support: This bearish barrier coincides with the area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Price movements that begin to approach this level could end the bullish trend line and open room for a more dominant selling bias over the coming trading weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Declines
DXY 090726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing some ground as traders react to the Initial Jobless Claims report and focus on the pullback in the oil markets.
The Initial Jobless Claims report indicated that 215,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 218,000.
Today, traders also focused on the Existing Home Sales report. The report showed that Existing Home Sales decreased by -2.4% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst consensus of +0.7%.
Oil prices pulled back by -4% despite escalation in the Middle East. Falling oil prices put pressure on the American currency as demand for safe-haven assets declined.
In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below the 100.80 level, it will head towards the support at 100.50 – 100.65. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 101.80 – 101.95.
EUR/USD Tests Resistance At 1.1420 – 1.1435 EUR/USD 090726 4h Chart EUR/USD gained some ground as traders focused on Germany’s Exports report. The report indicated that Exports increased by +0.9% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of -0.3%.
If EUR/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.1500 – 1.1515. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Tests Multi-Week Highs GBP/USD 090726 4h Chart GBP/USD continues to move higher as traders focus on general weakness of the U.S. dollar and monitor dynamics of the oil markets.
If GBP/USD stays above the 1.3400 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465. On the support side, a move below the support at 1.3335 – 1.3350 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
USD/CAD 090726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving lower as traders react to the strong rebound in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.
The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.4010 – 1.4025.
USD/JPY Moves Lower As Treasury Yields Fall USD/JPY 090726 4h Chart USD/JPY is losing some ground as traders react to the pullback in Treasury yields, which was triggered by falling oil prices. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 4.53% level.
There are no signs of interventions from the Bank of Japan, and it looks that BoJ is not ready to provide additional support to the Japanese yen at current levels.
If USD/JPY pulls back below the support at 161.50 – 162.00, it will head towards recent lows near the 160.50 level. On the upside, a move above 162.80 will push USD/JPY towards the 165.00 level. It should be noted that USD/JPY has not traded at 165.00 since June 1986.
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The pound has ben strengthening all week, and despite a renewed flare-up in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, the cable has barely flinched. But if the situation deteriorates, and oil prices remain elevated for longer, this will prompt investors to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy, which, in turn, could negatively impact the GBP/USD forecast. For now, side-ways trading is likely to dominate the agenda, with the US dollar likely to find dip buyers ahead of US CPI next week.
While the reaction in foreign exchange has so far been relatively restrained compared with moves in energy markets, the implications for monetary policy are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Higher oil prices threaten to slow the disinflation process that has underpinned expectations for easier central bank policy this year. If energy prices remain elevated, the Federal Reserve may find itself keeping interest rates higher for longer, and perhaps deliver some rate hikes later this year.
That remains supportive for the US dollar, particularly against currencies where domestic fundamentals are becoming less convincing.
Not much for US dollar until CPI release next week With little fresh guidance from the minutes of the FOMC’s June meeting, attention now shifts to next week’s US CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress. Both events have the potential to reshape expectations for the remainder of the year. Against a backdrop of firmer energy prices, the balance of risks arguably favours a more hawkish interpretation of incoming inflation data, which should continue to provide underlying support for the greenback. Today’s US jobless claims data pointed to a healthy jobs market.
GBP/USD forecast: Political uncertainty could cap sterling’s recovery Sterling has been one of the stronger-performing major currencies in recent weeks, helped in part by the immediate reduction of uncertainty about Keir Starmer after he stepped down. But this doesn’t mean political uncertainty is over. Far from it. Attention is gradually shifting towards the expected change in UK leadership later this month. Investors will be watching closely for the appointment of the next Chancellor, particularly given growing speculation that fiscal policy could take a more expansionary direction.
The challenge for any incoming government is that public finances remain under considerable strain. With limited room for additional spending without raising taxes, expectations for meaningful fiscal stimulus may ultimately prove difficult to deliver.
At the same time, markets are no longer expecting the Bank of England to tighten policy further this year. That leaves sterling increasingly reliant on external factors, particularly oil prices and developments in the US dollar, rather than domestic monetary support.
Technical GBP/USD forecast: Cable reaches 200-day MA Source: TradingView.com From a technical analysis perspective, the GBP/USD forecast continues to favour the downside despite the impressive gains it has made in the last couple of weeks. If we see a sharp reversal around the point of origin of the last breakdown from around the 1.3400 region, where we also have the 200-day average converging, resulting in the breakdown of the short-term bullish trend line, then a return to support at 1.3270ish could be on the way. Otherwise, a slow drift towards 1.3500 could be the outcome if oil falls back.
Looking ahead, a stronger-than-expected US inflation report next week could accelerate downside momentum by reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance. Conversely, any easing in Middle East tensions or signs that inflation pressures are once again moderating could allow sterling to recover some lost ground. For now, however, the path of least resistance appears to favour a firmer dollar, leaving the near-term GBP/USD forecast tilted modestly to the downside.
Silver (XAG/USD) snaps a three-day losing streak on Thursday as a mildly weaker US Dollar (USD) and a pullback in US Treasury yields lend support to the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $60.30, up 3.38% on the day.
Despite the intraday rebound, XAG/USD maintains a bearish structure, with a series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-May. The metal also trades below its key moving averages and is about 50% below its record high near $121 set in January.
The metal is struggling to stage a sustained recovery as macroeconomic headwinds cap the upside. Renewed hostilities in the Middle East have revived concerns over energy-driven inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates.
Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on non-yielding metals because they become less attractive relative to interest-bearing investments.
Hawkish Fed expectations and heightened geopolitical tensions are expected to keep downside pressure on the US Dollar limited. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.94 after touching an intraday low of 100.79.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, XAG/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as price holds within a downward parallel channel and below both the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.25 and the 100-day SMA at $74.32.
The pair trades just under the channel top at $63.50, suggesting upside attempts remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 points to subdued momentum even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns positive, hinting at only a modest recovery attempt within a broader corrective structure.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the channel upper boundary near $63.50. A sustained break above this would be needed to challenge the 200-day SMA at $70.25 and the 100-day SMA at $74.32.
On the downside, first support emerges at the horizontal line around $55, with the channel floor near $45 expected to act as a stronger demand area if bearish pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Chinese investors sharply trimmed their Gold ETF holdings in June, exacerbating global outflows for the month, as local investor risk appetite continued to improve amid equity market gains and a weaker Gold price, data from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows.
Physically-backed Gold ETFs in mainland China posted outflows of $2.22 billion in June, the highest monthly figure on record, according to data released on Wednesday. Over the month, Gold prices fell by more than 11%, similar to the pullback seen in January, as the US-Iran conflict continued to fuel inflation fears and central banks continued to signal potential interest-rate increases ahead.
“This anticipation contributed to rising real yields and a strengthening US Dollar, pushing up investors’ opportunity costs of holding gold,” the WGC said.
The pullback by Chinese investors is significant, as the country is the world’s largest market for the precious metal. The ETF facing the most outflows was Huaan Yifu Gold ETF with more than $1.1 billion.
Globally, Gold ETFs saw outflows of $8.9 billion in June, driven by Chinese investors’ pullback but also by those in the United States, with withdrawals of more than $5.3 billion.
US and Chinese investors led outflows from Gold ETFs in June, followed by France, Germany and Japan. Source: World Gold Council.Looking beyond June, data from the WGC shows that global Gold ETFs flows remained positive during the first semester at around $8 billion. Asia dominated global inflows (the region posted the strongest H1 on record), Europe also registered gains, while North America was the only region that recorded outflows.
Global Gold ETFs posted inflows in the first semester, but these were lower than those seen during 2025. Source: World Gold Council.Looking ahead, the WGC projects that Gold ETF flows could stabilize due to the relatively steady outlook for the precious metal for the second half of the year.
“Uncertainties surrounding geopolitics, economic growth and financial markets linger. This backdrop may continue to support investor demand for portfolio protection and sustain interest in gold ETFs as a strategic safe-haven allocation,” the report said.
Exchange Rates UK Research's latest July 2026 survey of leading investment banks suggests the euro is likely to recover some ground against the pound over the next 18 months.
With EUR/GBP currently trading near 0.8534—its lowest levels in around a year—the majority of institutions expect the pair to climb back into the 0.87-0.89 range through 2027.
Only a handful of banks forecast Pound Sterling maintaining its recent outperformance.
Image: EUR/GBP exchange rate forecasts chart- survey results July 2026 Latest Survey Suggests Pound Strength May Be Peaking The latest Exchange Rates UK Research poll points to a relatively clear consensus that sterling's recent gains against the euro will become harder to sustain.
Banks including Danske Bank, Goldman Sachs, ING, MUFG, SEB, Scotiabank, CIBC, JP Morgan and Rabobank all expect EUR/GBP to trade between 0.88 and 0.90 during 2027.
At the other end of the spectrum, Bank of America is the most bullish on sterling, forecasting EUR/GBP around 0.83-0.84, while Credit Agricole and Pantheon Macro also expect the euro to remain relatively weak.
Overall, however, the survey average points towards a modest recovery in EUR/GBP from current exchange rate levels rather than a continuation of Pound Sterling's strong rally.
That reflects recent market action.
EUR/GBP has fallen steadily over recent months, dropping from above 0.87 in the spring to around 0.853, its weakest level since mid-2025.
The move has been driven by broad sterling strength, with the pound outperforming most major currencies during June and early July.
ECB and Bank of England Outlooks Remain Central The differing forecasts largely reflect uncertainty over how monetary policy will evolve on either side of the Channel.
Pound Sterling has been supported by expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates relatively restrictive as inflation remains elevated, while political uncertainty has eased following recent developments in UK domestic politics.
Meanwhile, the euro continues to receive support from expectations that the European Central Bank could tighten policy further if energy-driven inflation proves more persistent, although policymakers have stressed that future decisions remain highly data dependent.
The result is that many banks now expect the interest-rate gap between the UK and Eurozone to narrow gradually, limiting sterling's ability to extend recent gains.
EUR/GBP Outlook: Survey Points to Euro Recovery, Not Reversal The latest Exchange Rates UK Research survey suggests EUR/GBP is more likely to recover gradually than stage a sharp rebound.
Most institutions continue to expect the exchange rate to remain below the long-term averages seen before the inflation shock of 2022, but equally believe current levels underestimate the euro's medium-term prospects.
For businesses and travellers, the survey implies that today's favourable pound-to-euro exchange rate may not be available indefinitely.
If the consensus proves correct, Pound Sterling could surrender part of its recent gains as monetary policy expectations converge and the euro area economy gradually stabilises.
The Australian Dollar has steadied near 0.6940 against the US Dollar after giving back part of this week's gains following a sharp rally at the start of July.
UOB believes the recent pullback is likely to prove temporary, with upside momentum continuing to build for the Australian Dollar.
The bank expects AUD/USD to remain range-bound between 0.6900 and 0.6950 over the next 24 hours, arguing that any further weakness should be limited.
According to UOB, "upward momentum is building tentatively, and the risk of AUD breaking above 0.6980 is increasing."
The bank believes this positive bias will remain intact provided AUD/USD holds above the key support level at 0.6900.
While UOB continues to expect further gains over the coming weeks, it remains cautious over the longer-term outlook. The bank maintains its one-to-three-month bearish view, warning that if AUD/USD falls below 0.6835, the next downside target would be the 2025 high around 0.6707.
For now, UOB expects the Aussie to consolidate before making another attempt to challenge resistance around the 0.6980 level.
Technical Indicators and Support Boundaries A breakdown below $3,900, I think, opens up a floor down to the $3,500 level in this market, and I think that’s probably pretty likely. Anytime this market rallies it seems to struggle, and with a reasonably strong US dollar, that’s going to continue to be a problem. Ultimately, I like the idea of perhaps fading short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, but really, at this point in time, I’m not overly aggressive.
I think gold is going to remain very noisy and that will probably be the way this market plays out for some time. With this, I like the idea of fading the first signs of exhaustion. I’m not really a big fan of jumping in with both feet, but I do recognize that if we break down, that could get ugly really quickly. If that’s going to be the case, then I anticipate that traders will continue to push and push, probably with a US dollar that’s rising at the same time.
Interest Rates and Inflationary Headwinds But really, at this point, I think you have to watch very closely the interest rate markets in the United States. If they continue to rally, I think that ends up being the death of silver, at least in the short term. The $50 level should continue to be important; going back decades, it’s been important, and I don’t see why that would be any different. This could be an excellent entry for longer-term traders, but we will have to wait and see if that opportunity arises.
I would be very interested in buying near that level, assuming that we stabilize. In the short term, though, it just looks like a market that can’t pick up its feet. There are concerns about inflation, and therefore there are concerns about interest rates rising, which works against the value of silver, especially when the US dollar rises in conjunction, which is exactly the play that we’ve seen. I continue to look at any rally in silver with suspicion.
The Euro (EUR) retreats to near 1.1425 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair falls back as the US Dollar claws back a majority of its early losses, with the appeal of safe-haven assets improving in the wake of renewed geopolitical risks.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower around 101.00 after rebounding from the day’s low of 100.80.
The exchange of attacks between the United States (US) and Iran, following confirmation from President Donald Trump that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran is over, has lifted the safe-haven demand.
The US military forces have also attacked Iranian infrastructure, which suggests that tensions could remain prolonged.
Higher oil prices due to diminished traffic near the Strait of Hormuz have de-anchored inflation expectations again, a scenario that could discourage Federal Reserve (Fed) officials further from reducing interest rates this year.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the June policy meeting, released on Wednesday, also showed that policymakers continue to see “inflation as the dominant risk”, and several officials still believe further tightening could become necessary.
Meanwhile, traders have raised hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) as oil prices have increased significantly after the US-Iran went back to square.
According to a Reuters report, traders have priced in another 30 basis points (bps) increase in policy rates this year. In June, the ECB raised its key rates by 25 bps.
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
The British Pound (GBP) is pulling lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, after hitting a fresh all-time high at 218.01 earlier on the day. The pair has returned to the mid-range of the 217.00s at the time of writing, yet with the bullish trend in place, holding comfortably above the previous highs, in the 217.20 area.
Risks of an intervention by the Japanese authorities remain high, but the wide divergence between the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rates and those of the major central banks poses a heavy weight on the JPY. More so with Oil prices bouncing up and pressuring global central banks to tighten their borrowing costs.
Technical Analysis: RSI divergence hints at a potential correction
GBP/JPY trades at 217.60, with Elliott Wave analysis suggesting that the pair might be on the fifth and last wave of a bullish cycle. The Pound has pulled back from the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the fourth wave, at 218.00, and the bearish divergence in the four-hour Relative Strength Index suggests that some consolidation or a corrective reversal might follow from here.
Bears, however, should break the July 7 lows, at 216.35, to confirm that the bullish cycle has completed. In that case, the early July trading floor, near 214.65, would emerge as the next target.
The broader bias, on the other hand, remains positive, and bulls might attempt a further rally, heading for the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the mentioned rally, at 218.90. Furter appreciation seems off the cards right now.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.00%-0.08%0.05%-0.05%-0.59%-0.12%EUR0.08%0.08%0.00%0.12%0.05%-0.49%-0.03%GBP0.00%-0.08%-0.09%0.05%-0.03%-0.56%-0.11%JPY0.08%0.00%0.09%0.11%0.06%-0.51%-0.04%CAD-0.05%-0.12%-0.05%-0.11%-0.07%-0.61%-0.15%AUD0.05%-0.05%0.03%-0.06%0.07%-0.53%-0.08%NZD0.59%0.49%0.56%0.51%0.61%0.53%0.46%CHF0.12%0.03%0.11%0.04%0.15%0.08%-0.46% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how Euro sentiment has cooled after optimism around Germany’s debt brake, with political risks and structural headwinds weighing on the currency. The bank notes EUR/USD is already priced for another ECB hike and expects sideways trading near current levels in the coming months, with only a modest upward bias further out.
Euro sentiment cools after 2025 surge"While higher short-term interest rates are currency supportive, the market is already fully priced for another ECB rate hike this year, suggesting that one more policy move is unlikely to offer much support for the EUR. On balance, we expect EUR/USD to trade sideways close to current levels on a 1-to-3-month view."
"Irrespective of this, it is worth noting that the EUR was the second best performing G10 currency in Q2 2025 after the safe haven CHF. This highlights the part the EUR played in emphasising the sharp rise in the EUR/USD in that period."
"The EUR now appears to have lost that momentum and that has clear implications for the outlook for EUR/USD."
"In our view, the market is likely to be reluctant to rebuild large, long positions in the EUR in the months ahead. That said, while the USD has benefited from a resilient US economy, it is RaboResearch’s view that hawkish bets on the Fed are overdone."
"We expect sideways trading in EUR/USD on a 3-month view and a modest upward bias to emerge in the currency pair on a 3-to-6-month view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EURGBP holds within narrow consolidation on Thursday after hitting new over one year low in strong bearish acceleration in past couple of sessions.
The pair is also on track for the third consecutive strong weekly loss, as Sterling continues to benefit from calmer political situation after resignation of PM Starmer (although still with a lot of uncertainty about potential new PM Burnham’s policies and cabinet members).
Strongly oversold conditions on daily chart suggest that bears may pause for consolidation / limited correction, as larger bears remain firmly in play.
Initial resistance lays at 0.8543 (broken Fibo 50% retracement of 0.8222/0.8865) and 0.8553 (broken 100WMA / weekly cloud base) with weekly close below these levels to reinforce broader bearish structure.
Stronger upticks, on the other hand, should stay capped under 0.8600 zone (falling 20DMA / former higher base) to provide better selling levels for fresh push lower.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates modest gains on Thursday, although upside remains limited as renewed hostilities in the Middle East revive concerns over energy-driven inflation and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,102, up 0.66% on the day.
The United States (US) and Iran exchanged another round of attacks overnight. US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social, "This is in retribution for yesterday's bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!"
On Wednesday, Iran reiterated its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz if fresh attacks occur, raising concerns that global Oil flows could once again be disrupted after improving following last month's interim peace agreement.
The latest escalation has weakened hopes for a permanent peace agreement, hurting risk sentiment and keeping safe-haven demand intact for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.00 after touching an intraday low of 100.79.
Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations are providing additional support to the USD. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 63% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on Gold because the metal does not offer yield.
Analysts at OCBC Bank noted, "While geopolitics would normally offer some support for gold, the latest move has worked more through the oil, inflation and rates channel." They added, "Near term, unless oil stabilises or Fed/rates concerns ease, rallies in gold and silver may still struggle to sustain."
Minutes of the Fed's June 16-17 meeting showed officials remained divided on the interest rate outlook, although some saw a case for higher rates if inflation remains elevated.
Technical analysis: Sellers retain control below the Bollinger middle band
On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias, with price sitting below the 20-day Simple Bollinger middle band at $4,135. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.12 remains below the neutral 50 mark, hinting at subdued upside momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 37 suggests a reasonably strong prevailing trend despite the latest consolidation.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band around $4,135, followed by the horizontal barrier at $4,200 and then the Bollinger upper band near $4,326.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $4,000 handle, ahead of the lower Bollinger band clustered around $3,944, where buyers could attempt to slow the current corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Chinese Yuan has remained resilient against the US Dollar despite a stronger Greenback, with USD/CNY holding close to 6.80 as investors weigh China's domestic policy support against robust US economic data.
Goldman Sachs believes the Yuan's resilience reflects structural changes within China's economy rather than short-term market dynamics.
The bank notes that while a stronger Dollar has created headwinds for many Asian currencies, the Yuan has held up comparatively well thanks to Beijing's continued focus on financial self-reliance and currency internationalisation.
According to Goldman Sachs, "resilient CNY" reflects the increasing importance of domestic drivers, even as global markets continue to favour the US Dollar.
The bank argues that China's push to expand cross-border use of the Renminbi, together with steady capital account reforms and continued policy support, should help underpin the currency over the medium term.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that weaker domestic growth has kept Chinese interest rates low, limiting the Yuan's yield advantage relative to the Dollar.
While US monetary policy is likely to remain the dominant short-term driver of USD/CNY, Goldman Sachs expects China's structural reforms and continued internationalisation of the Renminbi to help keep the Yuan relatively resilient despite broader Dollar strength.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has steadied near 1.1425 after recovering from June's lows, although Rabobank believes the single currency has lost much of the momentum that drove its rally earlier this year.
The bank expects EUR/USD to trade broadly sideways over the next one to three months before regaining a modest upward bias later in the year.
Rabobank argues that optimism surrounding Germany's decision to loosen its debt brake has faded as investors refocus on weaker Eurozone growth, higher energy costs and lingering competitiveness challenges.
According to the bank, last year's fiscal shift in Germany "was no panacea", with structural reforms still needed to tackle sluggish productivity and weak long-term growth.
Rabobank also notes that markets are already fully priced for another European Central Bank rate increase this year, limiting the Euro's ability to gain further support from monetary policy.
While the US Dollar continues to benefit from a resilient economy, the bank believes expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening have become excessive and should gradually unwind.
Even so, Rabobank expects investors to remain reluctant to rebuild large long Euro positions in the coming months after the currency's strong performance over the past year.
The bank believes investors will remain cautious in the near term. According to Rabobank, "the market is likely to be reluctant to rebuild large, long positions in the EUR in the months ahead."
However, it also argues that expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening have become excessive. As the bank puts it, "we expect sideways trading in EUR/USD on a 3-month view and a modest upward bias to emerge in the currency pair on a 3-to-6-month view."
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.8% higher to near $4,110 during the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) is down despite a slight improvement in expectations that the next monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be on the upside.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.95 even after recovering over half of its early losses.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates at least once this year have increased to 83.4% from almost 78% recorded a week back.
Hawkish Fed prospects have increased as oil prices have bounced back strongly due to renewed Middle East tensions.
Technically, higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Investors worry that renewed Middle East hostilities will likely be prolonged, as the US military forces have attacked Iranian infrastructure. Earlier in the day, Iranian state media reported that multiple US artillery shells struck a railway bridge west of Aghala in Golestan, triggering several explosions.
On Wednesday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit that our military forces might hit Iran again and would also attack the power and water infrastructure of the nation, if needed.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades higher at around $4,110, but maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,153.16. The metal has been unable to reclaim this dynamic barrier, keeping the broader recovery attempts capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.30 remains below neutral, hinting at subdued bullish momentum rather than a decisive rebound.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,153.16, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive bias. Further, the yellow metal could advance to near $4,200.
Looking down, the precious metal could slide to the October 28 low at $3,886.62 if it slides below the June low at $3,941.76.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
“A jump in oil prices could bring forward the timing of a Fed hike,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
President Trump said Iran reached out seeking an agreement, which cooled the immediate panic, but yields didn’t come back down. The bond market already repriced and gold is stuck with the result.
HSBC Trimmed but Sees a Floor HSBC cut its 2026 gold forecast to $4,560 from $4,864 and dropped the 2027 number to $4,925 from $5,000. The bank expects a $3,800 to $4,700 range for the rest of this year with gold finishing around $4,750. Their reasoning is straightforward: monetary policy repriced, the dollar repriced, and gold corrected from the January record high as a result.
Central bank buying slowed down and ETF money left in the first half. HSBC thinks both reverse later this year. Their bigger call is that the rate and dollar damage is already in the price, and that deficit spending and sovereign debt loads keep a floor under gold from here.
Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis Two short-term ranges are currently controlling the price action.
The first range is $4382.62 to $3942.10. Its retracement zone at $4162.36 to $4214.34 stopped the rally at $4202.71 on July 6. The second range is $3942.10 to $4202.71. Its retracement zone $4072.40 to $4041.75 is currently being tested.
Trader reaction to $4072.40 to $4041.65 is the area to watch today.
Bullish traders are trying to establish a secondary higher bottom. A sustained move over $4072.40 will indicate the presence of buyers. Their job is to create the momentum needed to overcome $4202.71 and change the main trend to up.
Bearish traders are going to try to drive the market under $4041.65. This could be the catalyst that sets up a test of the support area at $3942.10 to $3886.46.
What to Watch Next week is the whole trade for gold. CPI drops first and Warsh testifies after. The sequence matters. A cool inflation print takes September off the table before Warsh even sits down, and gold rallies on the repricing alone. A hot number does the opposite, and Warsh walks into Congress with no reason to push back on 63% hike odds. The bond market is already positioned for it with the 30-year above 5%.
Bulls need the $4,072 to $4,041 zone to hold. That’s the secondary higher bottom. Above $4,202 changes the trend. Below $4,041 and gold drops back to $3,942.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trimming losses on Thursday, and hitting session highs just above $59.00 after bouncing from $57.22 lows on Wednesday. US Dollar’s pullback has given some oxygen to the battered precious metals, although Silver’s broader trend remains bearish, after having lost more than $3 so far this week.
The White metal is drawing some support from a weaker US Dollar following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes. The central bank maintained its commitment to fight inflationary pressures, but a split market committee has left investors pondering the timing of the next interest rate hikes.
Furthermore, Iran and the US have exchanged attacks for the second consecutive day, but comments from US President Donald Trump affirming that Iran “wants to make a deal so badly” suggest that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the $62.50 area
XAG/USD trades at $59.13, retaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds halfway through the last two weeks' range, following a nearly 35% sell-off in less than two months. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) at 45.32 sits in neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, hinting that downside momentum is still in play.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the June 24 and 26 lows, at the $55.60-$55.70 area. Further down, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late June drop, at $51.40, and the late November 2025 lows at $48.64 emerge as the next targets.
On the topside, bulls would need to reclaim Wednesday's highs at $61.00 and the July 6 high in the $62.50 area to ease immediate pressure. In that case, the mid-June highs near $71.75 will come into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.17 per troy ounce, up 1.45% from the $58.32 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 16.76% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.44 on Thursday, down from 69.89 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
GBP/CAD climbed to its highest level in a decade this week, reflecting an increasingly powerful divergence between a Pound supported by fading domestic political risks and a Canadian Dollar facing mounting structural headwinds. Sterling continues to benefit from the unwinding of sizeable speculative short positions built ahead of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, while Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has effectively ruled out near-term rate cuts. With Bank Rate holding at 3.75% versus the Bank of Canada’s 2.25%, the existing yield advantage remains firmly intact. More recently, however, the rally has found an additional and arguably more durable driver: rising uncertainty over Canada’s trade outlook.
The turning point came on July 1, when the Trump administration declined to extend the USMCA at its mandatory trilateral review. Although the agreement remains in force under an annual review mechanism for up to another decade, the decision marks a meaningful increase in long-term policy uncertainty rather than an immediate disruption to trade. Instead of securing another 16-year extension, businesses now face the prospect of recurring negotiations and periodic reviews. That uncertainty could weigh on investment and growth over coming years, reducing the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will need to tighten policy further.
The BoC has already downplayed the inflationary impact of higher energy prices, arguing there is limited evidence that rising oil costs are feeding into broader price pressures. Together, the trade outlook and the central bank’s cautious stance point to a policy bias that is becoming increasingly less supportive for the Canadian Dollar.
Market positioning reinforces that narrative. Speculative bearish bets against the Canadian Dollar have climbed to their highest level since December, while Canada’s two-year yield trades more than 140 basis points below its US counterpart, the widest gap since last May.
Attention now turns to June employment data from Canada due tomorrow, which could determine whether markets further strengthen expectations ahead of the Bank of Canada’s July 15 meeting. Consensus looks for employment to rise by around 10,000 after May’s outsized 88,000 gain, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.6%.
The risks appear asymmetric. A weaker-than-expected report would reinforce the existing bearish narrative by strengthening expectations that the BoC remains firmly on hold or even shifts toward easing eventually. By contrast, an in-line or even moderately stronger report may offer only temporary relief while the broader uncertainty surrounding USMCA continues to overshadow Canada’s medium-term outlook.
Technically, further rise is expected in GBP/CAD as long as 1.8875 support holds. Immediate focus is on medium term rising channel resistance (now at 1.9049). Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 138.2% projection of 1.8017 to 1.8694 from 1.8299 at 1.9235. Break of 1.8875 will delay the bullish case, and bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, GBP/CAD is extending the whole up trend from 1.4069 (2022 low). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.6355 to 1.8912 from 1.8017 at 1.9597.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
DAX Rebounds as AI Optimism Returns Despite Middle East Tensions The DAX, along with its European peers, is recovering on Thursday after Wednesday's sharp sell-off. A rebound in semiconductor stocks, together with a modest pullback in oil prices, has helped stabilise sentiment, although concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to linger.
European equities fell sharply yesterday after renewed tensions in the Middle East sent oil prices surging, fuelling concerns over inflation and weighing on risk appetite.
President Trump's declaration at the NATO summit that the Iran ceasefire was effectively over raised fears of renewed conflict and further disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, despite reports of further U.S. strikes overnight, markets have remained relatively resilient today. This suggests investors continue to view the latest escalation as another setback rather than the beginning of a prolonged conflict. Throughout the crisis, market sentiment has repeatedly swung between optimism over diplomacy and fears of escalation, and investors still appear to expect negotiations to resume eventually.
The improvement in sentiment has also been supported by a recovery in AI-related stocks after reports that China could allow domestic AI firms to access Nvidia's H200 chips. The news has helped revive the AI trade after recent profit-taking, although investors remain increasingly selective ahead of earnings season as questions persist over valuations and the pace of returns on AI investment.
The economic calendar is relatively quiet today. Attention will turn to U.S. weekly jobless claims and existing home sales later in the session before German inflation data on Friday.
DAX Forecast – Technical Analysis
The DAX has rallied from the 2026 low of 21,860 to a record high of 25,920 before pulling back sharply towards 25,000.
The index is currently testing support at its rising trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the 2026 low.
While the price remains above this support zone, the broader uptrend remains intact. Buyers will look for a recovery towards 25,500 before targeting the record high around 25,920.
On the downside, a break below 25,000 would expose the 50-day SMA near 24,750. Below there, attention would turn to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 24,360, which also coincides with the 200-day SMA.
Dip buying and a divided Fed lift gold, but gains could be capped Gold is edging higher on Thursday as bargain hunters return following three consecutive sessions of declines.
The U.S. dollar has eased modestly after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting proved slightly less hawkish than some investors had feared. However, renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to underpin oil prices and inflation expectations, limiting the upside for the non-yielding precious metal.
The minutes revealed a divided Federal Reserve, with policymakers split evenly over whether further tightening would be required. Nine members projected at least one additional rate hike before the end of the year, while the remaining nine expected policy to remain unchanged.
Although the minutes did not materially strengthen the hawkish case, they also offered little support for expectations of rate cuts, leaving markets focused on incoming economic data.
Markets continue to price around a 65% probability of a September rate hike, while renewed geopolitical tensions could keep energy prices elevated and complicate the inflation outlook.
Taken together, that suggests real yields and the U.S. dollar are unlikely to weaken significantly in the near term, limiting the scope for a sustained recovery in gold.
Attention now turns to U.S. weekly initial jobless claims and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, which could provide further clues over the outlook for monetary policy. Developments in the Middle East will also remain closely watched, with any further rise in oil prices likely to reinforce inflation concerns and weigh on gold.
Gold Forecast – Technical Analysis
Gold broke below its symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-day SMA before falling to a low near 3,940, its weakest level since October last year.
Although prices have stabilised, gold continues to trade below its falling trendline as well as both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, leaving the broader technical outlook bearish.
Sellers will look for a break below 3,940 to create a fresh lower low and expose the 3,800 support level.
Any recovery would first need to reclaim 4,100 before bringing 4,200 into focus, where the falling trendline converges with resistance. Above there, 4,370 comes into view, followed by the 50-day SMA near 4,500.
The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency.
Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing Iran to implement the MoU agreement and contain the escalation feeds hopes of a negotiated end to the war and is keeping the Euro from dropping further.
Technical Analysis: Potential bearish flag formation
EUR/USD trades at 1.1435, holding within an upward channel, yet with momentum indicators reflecting a lack of a clear bias. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) keeps wavering around the 50 midline, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flat near zero, altogether hinting at a hesitant market.
Bulls would need to break the top of the last few weeks' trading range, at the 1.1480 area and preferably the channel top, now around 1.1500, to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus towards the mid-June highs near 1.1620.
A break below Wednesday's lows, at the 1.1390 area, would highlight a bearish flag formation that would be confirmed below the June 24 low in the 1.1330 area. The flag's measured target is a few pips below the late May 2025 lows, at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The story was corrected on July 9 at 08:22 GMT to change the title to EUR/USD Price forecast from the previously written EUR/GBP.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.21%-0.16%0.03%-0.14%-0.63%-0.28%EUR0.16%-0.05%-0.02%0.18%0.06%-0.43%-0.11%GBP0.21%0.05%0.02%0.24%0.10%-0.39%-0.05%JPY0.16%0.02%-0.02%0.18%0.06%-0.46%-0.11%CAD-0.03%-0.18%-0.24%-0.18%-0.14%-0.63%-0.30%AUD0.14%-0.06%-0.10%-0.06%0.14%-0.48%-0.13%NZD0.63%0.43%0.39%0.46%0.63%0.48%0.34%CHF0.28%0.11%0.05%0.11%0.30%0.13%-0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive.
Resilience questioned as Fed dominates"On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets."
"EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the view that the ECB is more likely to pull the trigger on another hike in September."
"However, we think the Fed story will be a more dominant theme and can easily see EUR/USD handing back early gains today and sending the euro back below the 1.14 level."
"Could some of the EUR/USD resilience be down to President Trump mentioning Greenland again at the NATO conference? Remember that his threats back in January sparked a backlash against US asset markets from European investors. This link looks tenuous at best."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 09.07.2026 Nasdaq continues selling off
Intraday analysis covering EURUSD(The euro) , AUDUSD , and NAS 100, highlighting recent price movements, key technical levels, and short-term momentum shifts across major markets.
EURUSD remains undecided
EURUSD(The euro) took a break from moving towards more multi-week highs but remains bullish.
The pair has been inching higher and lower since last Friday’s NFP data, which saw a decline in job numbers. 1.1430 is the first hurdle for bulls on the path higher. As the RSI ventures away from the overbought area, the recent bottom could serve as firm support at 1.1340. 1.1550 is the next key level should a bullish extension ensue. AUDUSD stays congested
The US dollar continues to gain traction across the board as risk appetite remains heightened.
The current rebound from the 0.6960 top has kept momentum to the downside. Now that buyers are seemingly out of the picture, the path is mostly clear for a move lower towards 0.6865. However, a push above the latest resistance could lead to another rally, with 0.7000 becoming a psychological resistance. NAS 100 hits another low
The Nasdaq remained pressured after global indices fell lower with fresh attacks in the Middle East.
On the chart, the price is moving towards 28400 as bearish momentum attracts sellers. However, a bullish RSI divergence could indicate a deceleration in the downward spiral and might lead to a pullback if traders begin to close positions. 30000 is the closest resistance at the recent gap, and its breach would send the index towards 30800 to claim another record.
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Gold fell to 4,032 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking its second consecutive day of decline. Pressure on the market intensified amid fears that a new escalation of conflict in the Middle East could disrupt energy supplies and accelerate inflation.
The US military confirmed that it has been striking targets in Iran for the second consecutive day, seeking to limit Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran has announced preparations for a large-scale operation against American military bases in the region.
US President Donald Trump stated that, in his view, the ceasefire has effectively come to an end. He also warned of the possibility of further strikes against Iran and the imposition of an additional naval blockade.
Additional investor attention has been drawn to the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. They showed that only a small proportion of the regulator’s representatives advocated a rate hike as early as June, with most participants remaining concerned about inflation risks.
The market continues to price in at least one Fed interest rate increase before the end of 2026, which limits gold’s upside potential despite ongoing demand for safe-haven assets.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,090 USD level. A decline to 4,018 USD and a subsequent rise to 4,088 USD have been completed. A further move lower towards 3,930 USD is expected, followed by a potential rebound to 4,055 USD, with scope for an extension to 4,150 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,090 USD level and is moving lower towards 3,977 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming around 4,090 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below the 50 level and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating continued downside pressure.
Conclusion Gold continues to decline as renewed Middle East conflict intensifies fears of energy supply disruptions and rising inflation. US strikes on Iran and Tehran’s threat of retaliation have escalated tensions, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire effectively over. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes revealed a cautious central bank, with only a minority advocating an immediate rate hike, while most members remain vigilant about inflation risks. Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike before year-end, limiting gold’s appeal despite safe-haven demand. Technically, further downside towards 3,930 USD appears likely, with any recovery likely to be capped by ongoing geopolitical and monetary policy headwinds.
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