Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Platinum technical chart shows the breakout above 1900 after the 1810-1836 bullish gap held, with 1927-1930 as the next upside target. Source: GoldPriceForecast.com.

Let’s begin with yesterday’s roadmap:

“(…) as long as platinum does not produce a daily close below 1798, bulls remain in control and continuation higher remains the path of least resistance.

The first area to watch is around 1874 – the minimum upside target based on the height of the earlier orange consolidation. Beyond that, the psychological 1900 level remains firmly on the radar. (…)”

Now look at what happened next.

Despite bears’ attack the bullish gap at 1810-1836 remained intact, confirming that buyers were still defending the move. As a result, today’s Asian session then opened higher at 1835-1840, and bulls continued marching north.

The result? Platinum broke above 1900, completing the bullish scenario we originally mapped out in our August 10 update.

And yes – congratulations to everyone who had enough patience to let this one develop. Consolidations can be frustrating while they’re happening, but this is exactly why we map the trigger and wait for the market to confirm it.

What comes next? With the original bullish roadmap now completed, the next upside target sits around 1927-1930.

What Invalidates the Bullish Scenario? A daily close below 1810.

Takeaway: Watch 1900 as the immediate battleground. Holding above 1900 → keeps buyers in control and opens the way toward 1927-1930. Daily close below 1810 → invalidates the current bullish scenario.

Quick Levels – Friday Cheat Sheet U.S. Dollar (DX.F)
Watch 98.72 / 99.
→ Daily close below 98.72: bears target 98.30-98.45.
→ Close today’s gap + daily close above 99: bearish scenario invalidated.

Platinum (PL.F)
Watch 1900.
→ Holding above 1900: next target 1927-1930.
→ Daily close below 1810: bullish scenario invalidated.

Friday Bottom Line Precious metals enter Friday with buyers firmly in the game, but several markets are now approaching the exact levels where confirmation matters. Silver has 7000, platinum is testing 1900, palladium is fighting 1373, and gold still has 4654-4685 ahead.

Meanwhile, the dollar remains vulnerable below 99, while copper has just given bulls something they didn’t have yesterday: a successful reclaim of its rising channel.

Don’t chase the move. Watch the levels, wait for the close, and let the market tell you which breakout deserves to survive the weekend.

Anna

What analysts at The Gold & Silver Club formally declared in the opening months of the year – “2026 will be the Year of Hard Assets” – has now crystallized into the defining macro theme of the year.

Across global markets, capital is rotating towards scarce, tangible assets at a speed few traders anticipated. Gold has surged from below $4,000 an ounce to around $4,600, while Silver has rocketed from approximately $54 to almost $70 in just weeks.

Copper is challenging record territory. Tin has emerged as one of 2026’s standout metals. Oil remains structurally elevated. Across the Commodity complex, the message is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore:

The hard-asset repricing is accelerating and the next phase could be far more explosive.

The latest catalyst has emerged from the U.S government bond market.

With long-dated Treasury yields reaching levels not seen for almost two decades, the U.S Treasury has moved to expand its liquidity-support buyback programme for longer-duration government debt – effectively increasing its ability to remove bonds from the market when liquidity becomes strained.

This is not quantitative easing. It is not formal yield-curve control.

But markets rarely wait for policy labels.

“The significance is the direction of travel,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “The Treasury is signalling that disorderly increases in long-term borrowing costs are becoming increasingly uncomfortable. Gold understands exactly what that potentially means.”

America’s federal debt has now crossed the historic $40 trillion threshold, while the cost of servicing that debt continues to rise.

At the same time, major foreign holders have been reducing their exposure to U.S Treasuries.

That combination creates an increasingly difficult policy dilemma: rising debt, weaker marginal demand and borrowing costs that cannot remain elevated indefinitely without consequences.

The critical question is what happens if long-term yields continue climbing.

Treasury buybacks can improve liquidity. They cannot impose permanent control over the yield curve. Only the Federal Reserve has the balance-sheet capacity to do that on a meaningful scale.

And that is where the Gold market becomes particularly interesting.

“If policymakers are eventually forced towards renewed liquidity creation, financial repression or some form of yield suppression, the implications for Gold and Silver could be enormous,” Hansen says. “The market does not need QE4 to be announced. It only needs to believe the probability is rising.”

That probability is increasingly being reflected in price.

Silver’s recent performance may be the clearest warning that market psychology is changing.

Its move from roughly $54 to almost $70 represents a gain approaching 30% from its recent low – dramatically outperforming most major asset classes.

Because Silver’s investable market is considerably smaller than Gold’s, even modest institutional rotation can create lightning-fast upside acceleration.

“Gold tends to validate the macro regime; Silver monetizes the excitement,” Hansen says. “If Gold clears $4,700 and Silver breaks decisively above $75 – that’s when $100 Silver and $5,000 Gold may stop looking like distant targets and start becoming the market’s next psychological milestones.

Over the past 15 years, The Gold & Silver Club has built a reputation as one of the industry’s most accurate forecasters of major precious metal price trends, a record well documented across leading financial publications and institutional research reports.

The firm’s proprietary models have consistently pinpointed major turning points in both Gold and Silver – earning GSC recognition as a trusted authority among institutional investors and private wealth clients alike.

“The largest gains in secular bull markets are rarely captured by traders who wait until everyone agrees,” Hansen says. “They are captured while the evidence is mounting, but the crowd is still hesitating.”

That may be exactly where Gold and Silver stand today.

The debt burden is accelerating. Bond markets are flashing warnings. Capital is rotating into hard assets. And the next major technical trigger is now within striking distance.

If the breakout arrives, today’s prices could quickly become the levels traders wish they had acted on earlier.

The window to position before the next leg higher will not remain open indefinitely. Once momentum accelerates, hesitation can rapidly turn into chasing.

The question now is no longer whether FOMO will arrive if Gold and Silver break higher. It is whether traders choose to act before it does – or find themselves chasing the market at significantly higher prices.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

Crude oil is the other side of the trade. Brent remains elevated after the Iran conflict restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is preparing new sanctions against Tehran. Higher energy costs are keeping inflation concerns in front of the Fed and the bond market. Crude staying elevated can rebuild the rate-hike argument fast enough to push yields and the dollar higher again. Silver is running on the rate relief. Oil is the force that can take it away.

The Physical Market and the Futures Market Are Both Saying the Same Thing The silver market is heading for a sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026. The projected shortfall is about 46 million ounces. Global mine output has not kept pace with demand. Most of the world’s silver comes out of the ground as a byproduct of copper, lead, zinc and gold mining. Industrial consumption from electronics and advanced manufacturing continues to pull metal into production lines. The demand is broad and it is steady.

Open interest rose more than 3,000 contracts to about 115,000 through mid-August. Managed-money traders are net long roughly 11,000 contracts. Smaller traders are also long. Commercial hedging increased on the other side as prices moved higher. That is new money entering the trade, not the same summer positions getting recycled.

What to Watch The price cluster at the 200-day moving average near $71.95 and the 50% level at $72.08 is where the rally gets its next test. Gold cleared its own 200-day Friday and is at a three-month high. Silver is approaching the same level with momentum from the physical side. The trailing 50% level at $66.29 is where the market finds out whether pullbacks are still attracting buyers.

Next week’s PCE inflation report and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will move yields and the dollar. Those two forces started the silver rally and they can stop it. Crude above $93 Brent is the wildcard that can shift the rate debate back toward tightening before the data even lands. Silver has the deficit, expanding open interest and a dollar at three-month lows heading into the weekend. The bond market decides whether those conditions hold on Monday.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Silver prices rally for the third straight day, up more than 2% and, for the week, gains over 7.40%, as a firm US Dollar is not an excuse for precious metals buyers, who are choosing flight-to-quality over haven demand due to the difficult US fiscal stance. The XAG/USD trades at $69.50, after reaching a high of $70.02.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookFrom a technical perspective, Silver’s uptrend remains in place, with traders eyeing a breakout above $70.00. Once achieved, they will set their sight on the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.05. A breach of it would expose the psychologically significant $75.00 level, which becomes the next area of interest.

Momentum stays positive, evidenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) staying above 50 and nearing overbought levels.

On the downside, XAG/USD's first support is the 100-day SMA at $68.47. Below lies the August 20 low of $65.64, ahead of challenging the August 19 swing low of $62.19, followed by the 50-day SMA at $61.35.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold hits three-month peak above $4,600 as Middle East risks fuel rally

U.S. Dollar Moves Away From Session Lows

DXY 210826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to rebound as traders react to PMI reports. Manufacturing PMI declined from 53.9 in July to 53.2 in August, compared to analyst forecast of 53.9. Services PMI improved from 54.6 to 56.8, compared to analyst consensus of 54. Numbers above 50 show expansion. The reports indicated that U.S. economy remained in good shape.

In case U.S. Dollar Index stays above the support at 98.60 – 98.75, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range. On the support side, a move below the 98.60 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the support at 97.85 – 98.00.

EUR/USD Remains Stuck Near 1.1700

EUR/USD 210826 4h Chart EUR/USD was mostly flat as traders focused on Euro Area PMI data. Manufacturing PMI improved from 51.9 in July to 52.8 in August, compared to analyst consensus of 51.8. Services PMI remained unchanged at 51.7, while analysts expected that it would decline to 51.5. The reports indicated that the European economy expanded despite high oil prices.

Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1700 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1775 – 1.1790 range. RSI has recently moved into oversold territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

GBP/USD Gained Some Ground As Traders Focused On PMI Data GBP/USD 210826 4h Chart GBP/USD moved higher as UK Services PMI exceeded analyst expectations. The report showed that UK Services PMI improved from 52.1 in July to 52.8 in August, compared to analyst forecast of 51.8.

From the technical point of view, GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3635 – 1.3650. If GBP/USD climbs above the 1.3650 level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.3720 – 1.3735.

USD/CAD Tested New Lows USD/CAD 210826 4h Chart USD/CAD remains under pressure as traders focus on the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed above the $4600 level, while silver moved above $69.00. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.

A successful test of the support level at 1.3735 – 1.3750 will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3635 – 1.3650. On the upside, a move above the 1.3775 level will open the way to the test of the 1.3800 level. In case USD/CAD climbs above 1.3800, it will head towards the resistance at 1.3825 – 1.3840.

USD/JPY Moved Lower As Japan’s Inflation Rate Exceeded Estimates

USD/JPY 210826 4h Chart USD/JPY pulled back despite rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.23% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.73%. Treasury yields are rising despite Bessent’s attempts to push them lower via verbal interventions.

Traders also focus on inflation data from Japan. Inflation Rate increased from 1.6% in June to 1.9% in July, compared to analyst forecast of 1.7%. Core Inflation Rate grew from 1.6% to 1.8%, in line with analyst estimates.

The nearest support level for USD/JPY is located in the 157.50 – 158.00 range. If USD/JPY declines below 157.50, it will head towards the next support at 155.00 – 155.50. On the upside, a move above the 50 MA at 159.15 will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00.

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Technical Resistance and Macro Drivers The US dollar has an inverse correlation to silver most of the time, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would be watching the greenback at the same time, but also interest rates, because they’re all tied together, obviously, and this could continue to be the story going forward.

Silver’s a little bit different than gold in this type of environment. Gold had at one point in time been falling to interest rates as well, but it now appears that the safety trade is starting to come back into vogue, as well as punishing the US for bond buybacks. We’ll see if that same thing plays through here in silver, as the two assets can heavily influence each other from time to time.

So far it has, but in all fairness, since that announcement, this is the first real challenge of significant technical resistance. It does look bullish, but $70, more likely than not, will end up being important, so I’ll be watching that level for some kind of confirmation, be it bullish or bearish.

The US Dollar (USD) collapsed this week, helping EUR/USD reach a fresh three-month high just above the 1.1700 mark, heading into the weekly close a handful of pips below that level but still firmly up.

Unexpected boost to US liquidityThe USD sell-off was triggered by the United States (US) Department of the Treasury, which announced on Wednesday that it will increase the government debt repurchase size by at least double. According to the press release, the current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation, and the change will become effective September 9.

The announcement, while aimed at taming long-term bond yields, was also a signal that the Treasury is sensitive to yield volatility. The Treasury made its move after the 30-year bond yield climbed to 5.327% on Tuesday, its highest level since June 2007, immediately falling afterward by roughly 9 basis points.

There are, however, a couple of things that are worth understanding. First, buybacks are just a rearrangement of the maturity schedule, as the Treasury will have to issue fresh bonds to replace those that it plans to buy back. Government debt and fiscal deficits will remain the same.

Second, the decision has an impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy decisions. Given that the US Treasury will have to issue more bills to finance the planned removal, this would likely ease financial conditions, which would increase the odds of a tighter monetary policy.

The future looks cloudy for the USD, with precious metals likely to outpace the Greenback in a risk-averse environment. Neither Treasury buybacks nor higher rates will address the root of the problem, which is the fiscal deficit.

In any case, that means further USD weakness in a risk-averse environment. The Middle East war is in a stalemate, and neither side is willing to budge. Oil prices have already picked up a bullish pace, and it won’t take much longer until energy prices become embedded inflation.

Financial warMeanwhile, the Middle East war adds pressure on financial markets. Tensions between the US and Iran remain in place, with neither willing to give in to the other party´s demands. Fire exchange around the Strait of Hormuz remains paused, as well as talks aimed at ending the conflict.

Market participants are clearly seeing a long-standing conflict ahead, and generally speaking, they are getting used to the idea. However, Oil prices have been picking up lately, reviving inflation-related concerns and also hinting at central banks opting for tighter monetary policies.

US President Donald Trump, however, is unwilling to give up. Trump posted on Truth Social that the next move is choking Tehran's economy by levying major penalties against any country that provides “any type of lifeline” to Iran, calling it an “Economic D-Day.”

His comments were reinforced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who noted on Thursday that President Trump's plan to crush Iran’s economy will likely negate the need for major US military operations against the Islamic Republic.

Bessent also had some comments on the Treasury buyback. He declared that the Treasury could increase bond buybacks beyond $4 billion, partly to signal that current yields do not reflect underlying economic fundamentals.

ECB Lagarde worried about Europe growthEuropean Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hit the wires on Wednesday and expressed concerns about Europe facing an erosion of the conditions that have historically driven the continent’s growth at the World Economic Forum’s International Business Council in Geneva, Switzerland. Growth rested on three pillars, according to Lagarde: expanding global trade, manufacturing supported by access to cheap energy, and “a stable, rules-based global order, underpinned by a US security umbrella.”

“Today, that global order is under pressure. Geopolitical tensions are bringing critical dependencies and choke points into sharper focus, while Europe faces growing security threats on its doorstep,” Lagarde added. Her speech aimed to warn about Europe's ability to compete in the age of AI, but her comments about the US did not pass unnoticed. War, physical or financial, poses a major risk and no one can ignore it.

Macroeconomic cluesThe macroeconomic calendar had little to offer in the last few days. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the Minutes of the July meeting, which brought nothing of substance. Officials remain concerned about inflation, and support rate hikes would be required if price pressures persist. A note of color was added by Chair Kevin Warsh, as he proposed reducing annual meetings from the current eight to six, to allow collecting more data in between meetings. This year’s schedule, however, remains the same.

Other than that, the focus was on the S&P Global and local banks’ Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) released on Friday. The August flash estimates showed that Eurozone business activity expanded more than anticipated, as the Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.8 from 51.9 in July, against expectations of 51.8. Services output remained unchanged at 51.7, beating the expected slowdown to 51.5. Finally, the Composite PMI printed at 52.1, better than the expected 51.7 and the previous 52.

US PMIs also showed encouraging results, despite the Manufacturing PMI ticking lower to 53.2 from 53.9 in July. The Services index jumped to 56.8 from 54.6, pushing the Composite PMI to 56 from 54.5 in July, surpassing the expected 54. The figures help the USD recover some modest ground, though it is still sharply down for the week.

In the upcoming days, the macroeconomic calendar will include the German Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The US will also publish the second estimate of its Q2 GDP.

Additionally, investors will keep an eye on this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Fed Bank of Kansas. This year's theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Policymakers from around the globe will discuss the main topic and may provide hints on the future of monetary policy.

Finally, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the annual Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Benchmark Revisions on Friday, a revision of labor statistics for the twelve months to March.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook:From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is bullish. The pair extends its advance well above the short- and medium-term moving averages, with the shorter one clearly bullish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1542, the 100-day SMA at 1.1573 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1631 all sit below spot, reinforcing a supportive backdrop as price pushes further into higher ground. The outlook stays constructive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) consolidating at 71 and the 14-period Momentum indicator also holding above its midline, hinting that buyers still dominate in the near term even as conditions look stretched.

On the weekly chart, EUR/USD holds a constructive bullish bias and trades above bullish moving averages. The 20-week SMA stands at 1.1576, while the 100-week SMA is at 1.1326 and the 200-week SMA is at 1.1059, reinforcing a broader underlying support structure. Weekly momentum is building up, as technical indicators head firmly north after crossing their midlines into positive ground.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 200-day SMA around 1.1631, followed by the 100-day SMA and the 20-week SMA, which converge in the 1.1570 price zone, forming a strong dynamic support area. Further slides could see EUR/USD dropping towards 1.1470 before relevant buying interest reappears. Recent highs around 1.1710 establish the first resistance area ahead of the 1.1800 mark. Additional gains should lead to a test of the April monthly peak at 1.1850.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Risk sentiment FAQs In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

The EUR/CHF rate could be set to return to 0.9400 as low volatility favours franc-funded carry trades, while its quarterly path points to 0.93. The Euro to Swiss Franc (EUR/CHF) exchange rate held close to 0.9350 on Friday as ING argued that subdued volatility could renew demand for franc-funded carry trades.

The pair traded at 0.9349 in the afternoon, little changed on the day after gaining 0.9% over the preceding month.

EUR/CHF one-month exchange rate performance to 21 August 2026.

ING's latest FX Daily treated 0.9400 as a tactical destination rather than a dated quarter-end target.

Chris Turner, the bank's global head of markets and regional head of research for the UK and CEE, said the franc could become the market's "preferred funding currency", sending EUR/CHF back to 0.9400.

That level is a retest only around 0.5% above Friday's 0.9349 reference, not a distant or dated destination.

The argument rests on low volatility and a risk-friendly backdrop sustaining demand for higher-yielding assets financed in francs.

That would leave the yen less attractive as the market's main funding currency; OCBC separately linked the shift to potential Japanese intervention risk.

Tactical EUR/CHF Level Differs From Quarterly Path ING's current forecast table, updated separately on 11 August, places EUR/CHF at 0.93 for both the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

It then points to 0.92 at the ends of the first and second quarters of 2027, before a recovery to 0.94 by late 2027.

The distinction matters: Friday's analysis identifies a tradable move towards 0.9400, while the maintained quarterly path implies that any rebound may not be sustained into year-end.

OCBC offered a firmer medium-term comparison on 13 August, placing its year-end target at 0.94 against ING's 0.93 fourth-quarter level.

Strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said the franc had moved "closer to our year-end EUR/CHF target of 0.94" and described it as a "preferred funding currency for carry trades."

Policy settings reinforce the funding case.

The Swiss National Bank kept its rate at 0% in June and said: "If necessary, we have an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We thereby counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the franc."

The European Central Bank meanwhile held its deposit rate at 2.25% in July, preserving a positive euro-franc rate gap.

That rate gap favours the euro, but ING's 0.92 levels for the first half of 2027 show that the tactical carry argument is not the same as a lasting bearish-franc call.

For EUR/CHF, 0.9400 is therefore the immediate test, with 0.93 remaining ING's separate quarter-end reference.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The Euro (EUR) is falling against the British Pound (GBP). EUR/GBP held the mid-0.8500s on Friday, hovering just below the 0.8570 area, even after a strong round of August flash Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) on both sides of the cross. The reaction was muted for a simple reason: the data was good for both currencies.

The Eurozone composite PMI rose to a nine-month high, with Manufacturing the standout. German factory activity hit its highest level in more than four years. The soft spot was German Services, which slipped back below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction, keeping the Euro's read mixed. In the UK, the composite also beat, driven by Services, while Manufacturing eased broadly in line. Weaker-than-expected UK Retail Sales did little to dent Sterling.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Friday that Iran wants to end its conflict with the US now, "from a position of strength", with the world acknowledging "its victory". Speaking at the Islamic Medical Association's assembly, he said those who "sit across the border and invite the enemy to invade" the country are "not Iranians". The tone points to de-escalation, and it is the Middle East risk backdrop, more than the growth surveys, that has kept European currencies on a tight leash this week.

Technical analysis:In the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8563, capped by the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8566 and a dense band of nearby resistance, which keeps the short-term bias slightly bearish despite the pair holding just above the 100-period SMA at 0.8559. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) around 49 suggests neutral momentum, reinforcing the view of a capped market rather than a directional breakout.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at 0.8565 and the 20-period SMA at 0.8566, followed by higher hurdles at 0.8571 and 0.8576. On the downside, the horizontal line at 0.8563 acts as a pivotal level currently being tested, with the 100-period SMA at 0.8559 providing the next layer of support if sellers regain control.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bond Buybacks and Market Catalysts Volume will probably start to drop off late in the day, and interest rates will have their part to play. Interest rates are still high, despite the fact that silver has rallied over the last several days, but they are starting to turn lower, so we’ll see if that plays out over the next day or two.

This is also a reaction to the US dollar being sold off, as the US Treasury is going to do double the bond buyback purchases next month. And that has people thinking quantitative easing. So far, they’re not willing to admit that, so we’ll have to see how that plays out in the future, but the possibility of the market “jumping the gun” is real.

Of course, silver is not necessarily a safety asset, so it’s not going to have all of the same variables as gold. But gold has broken above a major resistance barrier, so we’ll see if that translates over here in the silver market.

Following the previous week’s choppy action, Gold (XA/USD) gathered bullish momentum and advanced to its highest level since late May and touched $4,600. While XAU/USD’s technical outlook highlights buyers’ dominance in the near term, next week will feature key events that could ramp up market volatility. 

Gold surges after US Treasury Department’s unexpected bond buyback announcementThe US Dollar (USD) started the week under bearish pressure and Gold rose nearly 1% on Monday as investors continued to scale back bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September following the previous week’s disappointing economic data releases.

With tensions in the Middle East coming back under the spotlight on Tuesday, Gold lost its bullish momentum and closed the day deep in negative territory. US President Donald Trump said late that the US administration is not seeking an extension of the Memorandum of Understanding. Additionally, Trump reportedly told Fox News that they will bomb Oman if it gets in the way of his administration's negotiations with Iran. 

In the meantime, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported early Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an "unknown projectile" while attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. In the meantime, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades as investors reacted to heightened uncertainty surrounding the crisis in the Middle East.

In the second half of the day on Wednesday, the USD sold off sharply as the US Treasury Department unexpectedly announced that it will double the size of some long-dated debt buyback operations to support market liquidity. With US Treasury bond yields correcting sharply lower, Gold broke out of its range and climbed above $4,500 for the first time since early June.

According to TD Securities, the announcement that the US Treasury is increasing the size of liquidity-support buyback operations has "given metals a jolt of life," providing a fresh catalyst for precious metals. The firm notes that "while the fierce bid has faded in recent days, the flows could quickly return amid Treasury liquidity support, a Fed willing to look through an energy shock, and a growing stagflation narrative, which should all ultimately see lower real rates." In their view, this combination of policy support and macro concerns sets the stage for renewed upside in Gold and the broader metals complex. 

Following Wednesday’s volatile action, Gold entered a consolidation phase on Thursday and closed flat. US President Trump announced late Wednesday that they will launch an unprecedented "crushing economic operation" against Iran and warned that any countries offering support to Tehran will also face severe financial retaliation, causing investors to adopt a cautious stance and capping XAU/USD’s upside for the time being.

As the USD failed to stage a meaningful recovery early Friday, Gold regained its traction and extended its rally to a fresh 12-week high above $4,600. Heading into the weekend, the USD managed to limit its losses after the preliminary August Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys highlighted healthy business activity in the private sector and capped Gold’s upside.

Gold investors to look for clarity on Fed policy outlook, Middle East crisisUS Treasury chief Scott Bessent said that the US will impose "the toughest sanctions in history" on Iran and added that he will share more details at a press conference on Monday. A sharp increase in Crude Oil prices in response to this announcement could weigh on Gold with the initial reaction. Conversely, a pullback in energy prices could have a positive impact on the precious metal’s action.

On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish its second estimate of the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the second quarter and release Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures for July. 

On a monthly basis, investors expect the core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, to increase by 0.2%. A stronger increase could cause investors to have second thoughts about a Fed policy hold in September and open the door to a downward correction in Gold. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in about a 35% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike next month. On the other hand, a softer-than-forecast monthly core PCE inflation print could help XAU/USD stretch higher.

Source: CME GroupFed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Since replacing Jerome Powell, Warsh made it clear that he is against forward guidance. Hence, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Warsh refrains from delivering any comments on the policy outlook. Still, markets are eager to know whether Warsh will be able to do what is necessary to tame inflation. If Warsh reaffirms that they are uncomfortable with current inflation dynamics and downplays the latest signs of a cooldown in the labor market, the USD could hold its ground heading into the weekend and cap XAU/USD’s upside.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (non-voter) delivered a hawkish speech on Thursday, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 7/10. The emphasis on strong growth, accommodative financial conditions, underlying inflation stuck around 2.5%-3%, and the notion that hiking rates now could avert more aggressive action later underscored a bias toward pre-emptive tightening even as Fed credibility and policy independence are reaffirmed. References to potential supply shocks from a “super El Nino,” high input costs, and some credit crowding out reinforced an inflation-focused narrative, while the refusal to prejudge the September FOMC kept near-term rate expectations data-dependent.

Analysts at BNY Mellon argue that recent US Treasury actions have succeeded in stabilising the bond market, but they also warn that “bond markets have calmed, which is meaningful, but the next test is whether managing the yield curve begins to conflict with monetary-policy objectives.”

In their view, if Treasury measures effectively “loosen conditions while inflation remains above target, the Fed may eventually need to offset some of that impulse,” a tension that is already being reflected in alternative assets, with “Gold pushing through $4,500/oz. and Bitcoin briefly touching $70,000” suggesting “markets don’t view the move as costless.” 

FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bulls retain controlGold broke above the key $4,500 resistance, which was reinforced by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the March-August downtrend. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbed toward 70, highlighting a buildup in bullish momentum. 

While Gold holds above $4,500, technical buyers could remain interested. On the upside, $4,675-$4,700 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, round level) aligns as the next resistance area before $4,850 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).

If Gold drops back below $4,500 and fails to reclaim that level, buyers could move to the sidelines and pave the way for an extended downward correction. Looking south, next support levels could be spotted at $4,410-$4,400 (static level, round level) and $4,300-$4,280 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 20-day SMA).

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

British Pound holds gains against a weak US Dollar despite downbeat UK Retail SalesThe British Pound (GBP) trades firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the GBP/USD pair pushing against six-month highs in the 1.3660 area at the time of writing, on track for a 0.8% weekly rally. UK Retail Sales confirmed that consumption fell in July, but the pair maintains its bullish tone intact, as the US Dollar remains on its back foot, hammered by the Treasury’s bond buyback plans.

Data released by National Statistics on Friday revealed that retail consumption contracted 0.5% in the UK in July, in line with market expectations, following a  0.7% increase in June. Year-over-year, sales increased at a 1.6% pace, down from 3.8% in June and below the consensus 2.2%. Read more...

British Pound edges higher to near 1.3650, UK Retail Sales data loomsThe GBP/USD pair gathers strength near 1.3645 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the British Pound (GBP) amid fading Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations. Traders brace for the UK Retail Sales data for July, which will be published later on Friday. 

Softer US economic data and uncertainty over Fed policy exert some selling pressure on the Greenback. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said that higher Treasury yields do not necessarily underpin the USD if investors believe the increase reflects fiscal risk, heavier government borrowing or persistent inflation, rather than stronger US growth or tighter monetary policy. Read more...

GBP/USD at three-month high: Outlook hinges on economic dataGBP/USD surged to 1.3613 on Wednesday, reaching a three-month high. Investors are digesting fresh UK inflation and labour market data.

Consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% in June and in line with forecasts. Core inflation held steady at 2.6%. Following the release, markets slightly scaled back expectations of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end. Read more...

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold has surged, breaking above USD 4,500 per troy ounce as safe‑haven demand rises on US debt concerns and a weaker Dollar. The US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement triggered the sharpest daily Gold rally in six and a half months, with strong ETF inflows, though upside momentum may slow if US inflation data stays elevated.

Debt concerns boost safe haven"The gold price jumped by more than 4% or around USD 180 on Wednesday, marking its sharpest daily rise in six and a half months. The price also surpassed the USD 4,500 per troy ounce mark for the first time since early June."

"This was triggered by the US Treasury’s announcement that it intended to more than double the volume of buybacks of long-term US government bonds with maturities of 10 to 30 years. This move comes against the backdrop of a sharp rise in bond yields in the preceding days."

"This measure calmed the bond market and led to a decline in yields. At the same time, the US dollar depreciated significantly. Confidence in the US dollar as a safe haven appears to be eroding, as investors are demanding higher yields for US government bonds and the Treasury is having to step in."

"The main beneficiary of this is gold, as evidenced by strong inflows into gold ETFs. Holdings in the gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg recorded their strongest daily increase since September 2025 yesterday, at 18 tons."

"On the gold market, the US Treasury’s announcement was seen as a sign of stress. The sharp rise in US bond yields in the preceding days was not, in fact, due to a change in Fed interest rate expectations, but rather to long-term inflation risks and growing concerns about debt levels."

"This is consistent with the news that public debt in the US broke through the USD 40 trillion (USD 40,000,000,000,000) barrier for the first time this week. It is barely four and a half years since the debt level exceeded the USD 30 trillion mark. Interest payments are expected to amount to USD 1.1 trillion this fiscal year, which represents a threefold increase within five years."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Silver prices surged through $69 as the Dollar weakened and precious metals extended their breakout, taking XAG/USD more than 18% higher over one month. The Silver price broke decisively above $69 on Friday as the latest Dollar sell-off added fuel to a precious-metals rally that has gathered pace throughout the week.

The Silver to US Dollar (XAG/USD) price traded around $69.44, up 1.78% on the day and 7.35% higher over five sessions.

The metal has now gained just over 18% in one month, a dramatic recovery from July's lows below $55.

The immediate macro driver remains the weaker Dollar, alongside the market's reassessment of US Treasury policy after Washington increased long-dated bond buybacks.

Brian Lan, Managing Director at GoldSilver Central, said the Dollar decline had supported “not just gold but all precious metals”, while also highlighting the large shift in yields.

Silver Breakout Puts $72 in Focus Silver has now cleared the $66.80-$67 resistance area that capped the market earlier in the week, leaving $70 as the first psychological hurdle and $72 as the next more meaningful technical test.

The metal's tendency to amplify moves in gold remains a central feature of the rally.

Alexander Zumpfe of Heraeus Metals Germany expects that volatility to persist, saying: “Silver is expected to remain one of the most volatile precious metals in 2026”.

His LBMA forecast range for 2026 is exceptionally wide at $55-$105, with a $75 average, reflecting both the strength of investment demand and the risk that high prices erode industrial consumption.

For now, momentum remains firmly positive while XAG/USD holds above $67.

A sustained break through $70-$72 would strengthen the case for another leg higher, while a fall back beneath $66.80 would suggest the latest breakout has failed.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Pound Sterling jumped to $1.3675 after UK services activity unexpectedly accelerated, adding to signs that the economy is holding up better than feared. The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate surged to an intraday high of 1.3675 on Friday after a much stronger-than-expected UK services survey delivered a fresh positive surprise for Sterling.

The S&P Global flash PMI survey showed the UK Services PMI rising to 52.8 in August from 52.1 in July, its strongest reading for six months and well above the 51.8 consensus in a Reuters poll.

The composite PMI also strengthened to 52.5 from 52.2, compared with expectations for 51.6, while manufacturing eased to 51.5 from 51.9.

GBP/USD later eased back to around 1.3656 by late morning, still 0.09% higher on the day and 0.91% stronger over the previous five sessions.

Pound Sterling reaction around the 09:30 BST UK Services PMI release, showing GBP/USD and GBP/EUR. Services Surprise Strengthens the UK Resilience Story S&P Global said the survey was consistent with UK GDP growth of around 0.3% in the third quarter, with services benefiting from better domestic conditions, favourable weather and technology investment.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The expansion is being helped by sunny weather and tech investment”.

There were still reasons for the Bank of England to remain cautious. Employment continued to fall and price pressures picked up again as higher energy costs fed into business expenses.

The combination leaves the BoE facing stronger activity alongside persistent inflation risks, reducing the urgency for any near-term policy easing.

For GBP/USD, the fresh 1.3675 high is now the immediate resistance point. A sustained break above that area would put the 1.3700 level in focus, while a retreat below 1.3600 would suggest the post-PMI momentum is beginning to fade.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its advance on Friday and trades around $69.75 at the time of writing, up 2.41% on the day. The white metal reaches its highest level in two months and is on track for a weekly gain of more than 7%, mainly supported by persistent weakness in the US Dollar (USD).

The main catalyst behind Silver’s rally this week is the United States (US) Department of the Treasury’s surprise announcement of its debt buyback program. The Treasury plans to at least double its purchases of longer-dated government securities in an effort to contain borrowing costs. The decision initially triggered a sharp decline in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, mechanically increasing the appeal of Dollar-denominated precious metals.

US Treasury yields have since recovered some of their losses, but the rebound has not been enough to halt Silver’s advance. Investors appear more concerned about the longer-term implications of US fiscal policy, including rising government debt, large budget deficits and the possibility that authorities may favor looser financial conditions at the expense of the US currency.

Commerzbank argues that the Treasury’s announcement suggests that US authorities may prefer a weaker Dollar rather than accepting persistently higher long-term interest rates. This perception adds a headwind for the Greenback and continues to support Silver.

The monetary policy outlook provides additional support. Recent US employment and inflation data have reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Lower interest rates tend to benefit Silver, which offers no yield, while potentially adding further pressure on the US Dollar.

Investors now turn their attention to the preliminary August S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs). The market consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to ease slightly to 53.8 from 53.9 in July, while the Services PMI is forecast to decline to 54 from 54.6. Weaker-than-expected figures could increase pressure on the US Dollar and provide further support to Silver.

However, inflation risks remain present. Rising Oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could keep US inflation elevated and reignite speculation about a Fed rate rise, bolstering the USD. A sustained rebound in US Treasury yields could also become a headwind for precious metals following their strong recent gains.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $69.83, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the upward-sloping trend-line support around $68.03 and comfortably above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $66.02 and the 200-period SMA at $65.56. The clustering of underlying levels at $67.75 and $66.60 reinforces a constructive structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.05 hints at mildly overbought conditions that could slow the advance rather than immediately reverse it.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the psychological $70.00 handle, where a sustained break would open the way for further gains in the short term. On the downside, the first meaningful support emerges at the reclaimed trend-line zone near $68.03, followed by horizontal support at $67.75 and $66.60, with the 100-period SMA at $66.02 and the 200-period SMA at $65.56 providing deeper trend support if corrective pressure extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Nomura strategists see greater fiscal vulnerabilities in the United Kingdom (UK) than in the Euro area. Strong foreign inflows into Euro area bonds and comparatively better debt dynamics support its view that Euro (EUR) should outperform British Pound (GBP), US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY).

Euro area fiscal resilience supports EUR outlook"For much of Europe, we see fewer downside risks from potential political uncertainty than in the past. In the past, the biggest risk/uncertainty factor associated with populist right-wing governments in Europe was the risk of a country leaving the euro area or the EU. However, the likes of RN in France and AfD in Germany, while still eurosceptic, no longer propose such extreme measures."

"Overall, we see GBP as facing the biggest risks in this regard in Europe. The Labour government in the UK under new PM Andy Burnham is trying balance improving growth without causing inflation, while maintaining fiscal credibility and delivering on spending commitments. With much higher debt-to-GDP than the euro area aggregate, which has risen at a faster rate, and with rising net interest payments in the years ahead, fiscal vulnerabilities seem unlikely to disappear any time soon."

"For the euro area as a whole, there is much less risk, in our view. For all of France’s concerns, these can be offset from a currency perspective by the much better positions of the likes of Germany and Spain, as noted earlier. For the Big 4, rising government interest payments may become more of a concern in the years ahead, but they should remain comfortably below the UK and US."

"Foreign inflows into euro area debt have surged in recent months, suggesting that overseas investors see the higher yields on offer as being more than enough reward for the relative risk being taken on. Indeed, we are currently looking for EUR to outperform both USD and JPY where fiscal dynamics look much more challenging."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Last week, we were watching one relationship in particular for gold: the spread between the U.S. 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields.

Our thesis was simple. When the 2-year rises faster than the 30-year, the spread moves higher and near-term Fed pressure becomes more restrictive. Gold has historically struggled in that environment.

When the spread trends lower, conditions tend to become more supportive.

The 2Y–30Y spread remains below its 20-day EMA band while gold has continued higher.Earlier this month, the spread broke below its 20-day EMA trend band, measured with Bollinger Bands set at one standard deviation. Gold subsequently rallied towards $4,560, while silver climbed towards $70.

So the signal worked. The question now is whether it is still valid after Treasury stepped into the long end.

Treasury has entered the pictureAfter the 30-year yield reached roughly 5.3%, Treasury announced that long-end liquidity-support buybacks would increase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9.

Yields initially fell, but much of that move was quickly recovered. The 30-year dropped sharply on Wednesday, then bounced back on Thursday and is still grinding around its rising 20-day EMA band.

For context, the 30Y yield was 5.30% during the intervention. Now it’s back at 5.248%.

US30Y: the announcement caused a sharp reaction, but the rising trend band has not been broken.The 10-year is telling a similar story. The 20-day EMA band is still acting as trend support, with roughly 4.60% as the lower shelf and 4.75–4.80% as the important area above.

US10Y: 4.60% remains the key floor; 4.75–4.80% is the next major test.That means Treasury has changed the reaction, but not yet the underlying trend.

There is one important nuance for gold. If Treasury buying pulls the 30-year yield down faster than the 2-year, the 2Y–30Y spread will rise mechanically. That is a warning that the relationship we are tracking is changing, but it is not automatically bearish for gold.

The driver matters. A spread reversal led by a rising 2-year would be much more negative because it points to renewed Fed tightening pressure, higher short real yields and typically a firmer dollar. A reversal caused mainly by the 30-year falling can still leave gold supported through lower long-term yields.

So the cleaner invalidation is not simply a higher spread. It is the spread reclaiming its EMA band while the 2-year and dollar are also strengthening.

Gold and Silver still have the trendGold remains above its own daily 20-EMA band and is testing the 4,513–4,586 high-volume node area. Above that sits the larger 4,638–4,773 zone.

Gold: 4,513–4,586 is the first resistance zone; 4,638–4,773 is the larger target area.Momentum is overbought, so a pullback would not be surprising. The trend weakens more meaningfully if gold loses its EMA band, which would bring 4,350–4,430 back into focus.

Silver is following almost the same setup, testing 69–71.20 with 74.49–77.00 above. The first major pullback area sits around 65.75–66.30.

Silver: the rally is testing 69–71.20 while the daily EMA band remains supportive.The Dollar is still helpingDXY has broken lower towards 98.6, adding another tailwind for precious metals. Momentum is stretched, so a short-term dollar rebound remains possible.

DXY: the dollar has broken another support area and remains below its 20-day EMA band.For now, the original thesis remains valid: the spread is below its trend band, gold and silver remain above theirs, and the dollar is weak. The clearest warning would be a spread reversal led by the 2-year, alongside a recovering dollar.

The Euro (EUR) trades 0.21% higher at around 1.1710 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday, the highest level seen in over three months. The major currency pair climbs higher as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms due to multiple headwinds, notably United States (US) Treasury Department’s decision to double down on its bond-buying operations and receded hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.17% to near 98.67. The USD Index attracts slight bids after revisiting the fresh three-month low at 98.56 posted the previous day.

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.20%-0.13%-0.19%-0.35%-0.66%-0.55%-0.16%EUR0.20%0.07%-0.02%-0.18%-0.47%-0.34%0.04%GBP0.13%-0.07%-0.09%-0.24%-0.51%-0.42%-0.02%JPY0.19%0.02%0.09%-0.15%-0.46%-0.37%0.04%CAD0.35%0.18%0.24%0.15%-0.31%-0.19%0.19%AUD0.66%0.47%0.51%0.46%0.31%0.10%0.50%NZD0.55%0.34%0.42%0.37%0.19%-0.10%0.41%CHF0.16%-0.04%0.02%-0.04%-0.19%-0.50%-0.41% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Euro support builds as ING flags benign Dollar declineAnalysts at ING observe that EUR/USD "remains well supported," with the pair benefiting from what they describe as a "benign decline in the Dollar that tends to float all boats." They add that, while "not that anyone is expecting it," any move toward "true US fiscal consolidation" would matter for the currency outlook, as "the combination of tighter fiscal policy and looser monetary policy would be Dollar-negative."

Dollar seen vulnerable as Fed faces pressure to cut rates in 2027Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the Dollar is likely to come under renewed pressure once the war with Iran ends, as they do not expect the Fed to deliver the rate hikes currently priced by markets. Instead, they foresee the Fed "embark on pronounced and ultimately excessive interest rate cuts again in 2027, also because of the political pressure." Commerzbank adds that the Dollar is "vulnerable because it is significantly overvalued based on purchasing power parity," reinforcing their view that the currency will face downside risks over the medium term.

While comments from financial markets suggest that hopes of a prolong Fed’s wait mode to keep the US Dollar under pressure, firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates in September is strengthening the Euro.

Analysts at DBS highlight that EUR has been the “prime beneficiary of USD weakness,” with EUR/USD having “rallied towards 1.17” as the Dollar remains under pressure. They note that the latest inflation data have reinforced the Euro’s appeal, with the Eurozone’s July CPI “coming in line with expectations,” as both “headline and core inflation matched consensus of 2.9% y/y and 2.5% y/y respectively.”

DBS argues that this inflation backdrop “has entrenched expectations of an ECB rate hike for Sep,” pointing out that “markets [are] pricing in a 26bps hike with over 90% probability.” By contrast, they see the policy outlook across the Atlantic as opaquer: “on the other hand, the Fed’s next rate move is less clear given recent economic data softness, and upcoming mid-term elections in November,” leaving the Dollar on a weaker footing against the Euro.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1703, extending its advance well above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1561 and reinforcing a bullish near-term bias as price holds above this dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 74.8 pushes deeper into overbought territory, suggesting that while buyers remain in control, upside momentum could be prone to pauses or brief corrective pullbacks.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the recent pivot around 1.1703, followed by the 20-period EMA near 1.1561, which should act as a structural floor on a deeper retracement. Looking up, EUR/USD could extend its upside towards the May high near 1.1800.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Daily Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is sharply higher early Friday after recovering above the bear-market threshold at $4481.78 and decisively crossing to the strong side of the 200-day moving average at $4514.13. Bullish traders are hoping the latter leads to more institutional investment.

The market has also entered the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone of the rally from $3886.46 to $5602.23. The first sign of strength was the crossing of the Fibonacci level at $4541.88. If the bulls can build a solid support base over this level, the next move could be to the 50% level at $4744.34. Additionally, all the previous tops ahead of this upside target have been pierced, giving traders room to test this objective if buying volume persists.

What to Watch The dollar below 99 is carrying this trade. Gold’s rally holds if the currency stays under pressure and September hike odds keep fading. Treasury’s buyback interrupted the rise in long yields but the 30-year at 5.25% has not stopped being a risk. The metal cleared the 200-day moving average and entered the retracement zone that has been the target since the June bottom. The previous tops between here and the 50% level have all been taken out. Buying volume and a cooperative dollar decide whether the market can reach it.

Crude near $93 Brent is the force that can turn the Fed conversation back toward tightening. Gold and oil are running on different catalysts this week. They do not have to stay on the same side. Central-bank buying and investment demand are holding the floor underneath the market. The dollar and the rate outlook are providing the momentum above it. Oil is the reason the path is not as clear as the price action suggests.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains on Friday, with bulls aiming for a retest of the $4,600 resistance area, the top of the last six months' trading range. Precious metals are gaining momentum, favoured by a sharp US Dollar selloff, following the announcement of a US Treasury plan to boost liquidity to repurchase long-term securities.

Rabobank analysts observe that “normally, lower Treasury yields weaken the currency through the interest-rate channel,” but this episode appears different. “This time, gold and crypto also rallied, suggesting concern about fiscal credibility and the perceived management of borrowing costs,” says the bank. Against that backdrop, the experts wonder whether “the end-result will be unchanged long-term yields, but a weaker dollar,” underscoring a potential shift in how markets are pricing US risks.

Technical Analysis: Bullish momentum improves above the 200-day SMA

XAU/USD trades at $4,582, retaining a bullish near-term bias although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching overbought levels in most timeframes. The precious metal has breached the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a very popular indicator among traders, but the daily chart shows RSI right at the 70 level, which hints at a stretched rally.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, with the histogram printing wider green bars, which suggests that dips are likely to be bought.

Bulls are focused on the horizontal cap near $4,590 (May 29 highs). Above here, the $4700 psychological level and May's top at $4.4773 emerge as the next targets, although a bit far away for today.

On the downside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,514 defends the bullish structure. A bearish reaction below that level would expose the previous top, at $4,450, and the August 14 low, near $4,310.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $69.94 per troy ounce, up 2.67% from the $68.12 it cost on Thursday.

Silver prices have decreased by 1.61% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 65.71 on Friday, down from 66.35 on Thursday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

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EUR/USD has broken above its 200-day average as Goldman Sachs argues Treasury support may force the Dollar to absorb more of the adjustment. The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate traded around 1.1700 on Friday morning, up 0.11% on the day and 1.12% higher over the previous five sessions.

The pair has gained 2.61% over the past month, with the latest leg higher following Washington's decision to increase long-dated Treasury buybacks.

Goldman Sachs believes the policy shift matters more for the Dollar than for the underlying rates outlook.

The Treasury said it would at least double liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated bonds to $4bn per operation, a move that initially drove the 30-year yield almost 10 basis points lower and knocked around 0.7% from the Dollar index.

Goldman's Treasury desk estimates the larger programme could amount to at least $18bn of additional long-end purchases per quarter, or $72bn annualised, with total long-end buybacks potentially reaching around $144bn a year.

Supporting Bonds Could Shift the Pressure into FX Goldman Sachs G10 FX options trader Praneet Shah argued that the move should not be read simply as a rates story.

“I do however think this is more meaningful for the USD,” Shah wrote, noting that Washington had shown it was willing to become more inventive when supporting the long end of the Treasury market.

The key risk for the currency is that policy support for bonds changes where the adjustment takes place.

“Supporting bonds may come at the expense of letting the USD become the adjustment valve,” Shah said, framing the trade-off as one between restraining yields and allowing more of the pressure to show up through the exchange rate.

That interpretation is important because the bond-market move itself may not be large enough to generate a lasting decline in yields.

Goldman's rates team expects buybacks to help cap the long end rather than drive a major repricing lower, while fiscal deficits and heavy supply remain persistent upward pressures.

For foreign exchange, however, a credible perception that the Treasury is willing to lean against long-end stress could be enough to keep the Dollar under pressure even if yields stop falling.

The EUR/USD technical picture has also shifted.

Goldman's 20 August chart showed EUR/USD around 1.1693 against a 200-day moving average near 1.1630, leaving the pair clearly above that long-term trend measure.

Shah said the break was “interesting” and highlighted the possibility of a sustained move if positioning and low volatility continue to support the Euro.

Image: ERUK's EUR/USD sentiment survey poll results for next 4 quarters 2026, into 2027 The Exchange Rates UK Research Currency Forecast Sentiment Survey currently places the median EUR/USD forecast at 1.1650 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 1.18 for the first quarter of 2027.

That means spot is already trading above the near-term consensus median.

In our view, holding above the 1.1630-1.1650 area would keep the Goldman technical signal intact, while a clean move through 1.1710 would strengthen the case for a further advance towards the upper 1.17s.

The wider implication is more significant than a single technical break: if the Treasury increasingly tries to suppress stress in the bond market, the Dollar itself may become the release valve.