Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests 177.50 barrier near nine-day EMA

India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) prices rose in early Asian trading on Friday as the US dollar dropped to 102 and Treasury yields eased. Gold gained over 0.9% to around $4,175 an ounce while silver climbed over 1% to $60. A soft US dollar makes both metals cheaper for overseas buyers.

However, the market still expects the 82% chance of a rate hike by the Fed in December. This keeps the recovery in gold and silver vulnerable to fresh inflation concerns.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday that further hikes in interest rates would be needed to bring inflation back to 2%. He left the October decision open. His comments suggest that the pause in the interest rates in October would not remove the risk of further tightening.

Meanwhile, President Trump described the talks with Iran as productive and ruled out US attacks before the elections in November. In my view, the drop in tensions between the US and Iran could ease energy inflation and reduce pressure for higher rates. But they could also weaken demand for gold as a safe haven and leave the outlook mixed in the near term.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,330 Breakout Could Target $4,530 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been trading within a triangle pattern in 2026. The price formed a low at $4,066 on October 7, 2026, and initiated a rebound toward the $4,175 area.

The price must break at least the $4,330 level to open the way for a rally towards the $4,530 area. A break above $4,530 will likely confirm a breakout and push gold prices towards the $5,000 area. As long as the gold price remains between $4,000 and $4,500, the possibility of consolidation remains high.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows strong consolidation between $4,100 and $4,300. A break of either of these levels will likely define the next move in the gold market. However, if the price remains below $4,300, the formation of bearish price patterns may limit the rallies in the gold market.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts

Silver Price Forecast: $65 Breakout Could Put $72 in View The daily chart for spot silver also shows strong consolidation in the short term within the triangle pattern. The support of the triangle lies between $55 and $56, while the resistance remains at the $65 area. A break above $65 will likely open the way for a rally towards the 200-day SMA at the $72 level.

A break above $72 is required to open the way for a strong rally in the silver market. However, a break below $55 will likely push the price towards $50.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows strong consolidation within the wedge pattern. The immediate resistance remains at $62. A break above $62 will likely open the way for a rally towards the $72 area. The short-term price action shows that a break below $55 will likely open the way for a drop towards the $50 area.

What to Watch Next Traders will watch the US dollar, Treasury yields and fresh comments by the Fed for the next move in gold and silver prices. A further drop in the dollar and yields could support a recovery in both metals. But renewed concerns about inflation may strengthen the expectations for another rate hike.

The developments in the relationship between the US and Iran may shift the oil prices and demand for gold as a safe haven. Gold needs to break above $4,330 to target $4,530. Silver must clear $65 to bring $72 into view. On the other hand, the key support for gold remains at $4,000, while a break below $55 in silver could trigger a drop towards $50.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks to regain $4,200 amid pre-US CPI repositioning

PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7330 vs. 6.7367 previous

Gold gains ground to near $4,150 as traders weigh Fed rate path

Gold bears are approaching major support around $4,000, where diminishing bearish momentum could attract buyers ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, USD/CHF has printed a bearish reversal around resistance, raising the prospect of a pullback alongside a potential recovery in gold. Renewed Middle East tensions and rising oil prices add another layer of uncertainty for traders.

View related analysis:

Gold Price Outlook: Bears Target 4,000 Before a Potential Rebound
Crude Oil Outlook: WTI Holds Support as Brent Shows Strength
Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Meets 200-Day SMA, AUD/JPY Hints at Swing High
USD/CAD Knocked from Its Perch as US Dollar Rally Pauses for Breath

Gold Approaches $4,000 Support, USD/CHF Reversal Signals Emerge
Renewed tensions between the US and Iran have seen crude oil regain a bid, with inflation concerns and tighter monetary policy expectations returning. This is seeing Brent and WTI crude oil curl higher from the recent support zones I highlighted, and weighing on Wall Street sentiment accordingly. And unless we get the appropriate headlines to convince traders that tensions in the Middle East are de-escalating, then the potential for upside gap risk for oil prices over the weekend seems apparent.

Yet we’re also at the stage where risk-off sentiment has meant that gold has suffered – presumably as funds are forced to liquidate the supposed safe-haven asset to fund losses on the stock market. But with the potential need to hedge over the weekend and the Swiss franc making a comeback as a safety play, perhaps gold can regain its footing around support.

And with a near-term bearish reversal signal on USD/CHF, perhaps that too can pull back as part of a suspected third wave of an ABC correction.

Daily Market Performance: US Dollar Stalls as WTI Oil Rallies
The US dollar rally continues to show signs of exhaustion, with the DXY struggling to retest Monday’s high and allowing minor gains for its FX major peers.
The Nasdaq 100 led the S&P 500 lower as Wall Street fell for a second day, though the Dow Jones was effectively flat.
Metals came under pressure during the risk-off session, despite the slightly softer US dollar.
Brent and WTI crude oil rallied from support levels as traders repriced Middle East risks.

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis
On Tuesday, I outlined a case for bears to target the 4,000 area ahead of a potential bounce. It is a massive level to break, and irrespective of one's personal view of gold and its fundamentals – there always seem to be some buyers around such big levels. Besides, many were writing off gold back in June when it repeatedly failed to break below 4,000 ahead of its rally – which I was also on guard for.

I also highlighted 4,082 as a potential support level, as it marks the high-volume node (HVN) from the congestion zone back in June. This effectively means it was the most traded price by volume during that period.

So while Thursday printed a bearish outside day, over a third of the day's range was a lower wick – which shows a slight loss of control from bears at that support area. And with the weekend looming and a potential desire to hedge, perhaps gold can hold its own.

If prices do break lower, I still suspect that buyers lurk around the June low or 4,000 area. But at the very least, bears may want to tread with caution around these levels. Especially since volume so far this week has been the lowest in three months and at current prices, gold is on track for a narrow-ranged spinning top doji.

Source: ICE, TradingView

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Swiss Franc
The daily chart shows a bearish outside day formed on Thursday around the December 2023 low. This is quite convenient for my outlook, which assumes another leg lower as part of an ABC correction.

Also note that USD/CHF shares a strong inverse correlation with gold, with its 20-day correlation at -0.85. This means if gold rises, USD/CHF tends to fall and vice versa. And that means traders of either market may also want to keep an eye on the other.

Out of the two, I prefer the Swiss franc as its price action is cleaner and less prone to the volatile emotions of gold. However, if gold does bottom, it builds a stronger case for a decent pullback on USD/CHF over the near term.

That said, I will also keep an eye on a potential swing low on the USD/CHF daily chart around 0.820, given its established uptrend within its trend channel.

Source: ICE, TradingView

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Struggles at 209.00 as bearish-engulfing looms

Recent trading sessions continue to present a challenging environment for the euro in the short term. This can be seen in the performance of EUR/USD, which has declined by approximately 0.5%, reflecting another loss of ground for the European currency and highlighting the continued strength of the U.S. dollar.

For now, selling pressure remains supported by two key factors. On one side, the dollar continues to display resilience across recent trading sessions. On the other, growing concerns surrounding France's fiscal situation are beginning to attract more attention, creating a broader sense of caution across the eurozone. As long as these factors remain in place, selling pressure around EUR/USD could continue to play an important role in the sessions ahead.

Is a Debt Problem Emerging in France?
Over recent weeks, concerns surrounding France's fiscal position have become increasingly evident. The country's fiscal deficit currently stands near 5.4% of GDP, a level that reflects government spending continuing to outpace revenues and that remains well above the European Union's 3.0% fiscal deficit threshold.

At the same time, public debt has already surpassed €3.6 trillion, representing more than 100% of GDP and marking a significant increase compared with previous years. These figures have raised concerns because they point to a fiscal trajectory that is becoming increasingly challenging for one of the eurozone's largest economies.

This situation is also being reflected in the bond market. French government bonds have begun offering significantly higher yields relative to safer markets such as Germany. Currently, 10-year French government bonds yield around 4.8%, while equivalent German bonds remain near 3.4%.

The widening spread is particularly important because it shows that investors are demanding a growing risk premium to maintain exposure to French debt. In other words, markets are perceiving a higher level of risk than they did months ago and require greater compensation to justify holding French government bonds. Furthermore, this dynamic could become an additional challenge for public finances, as persistently higher borrowing costs increase debt-servicing expenses and make fiscal stabilization more difficult.

Source: TradingEconomics

This situation extends beyond France itself. It is also beginning to create concerns about the broader financial stability of the eurozone by increasing fears of potential financial fragmentation within the bloc.

As a result, some investors may begin reducing exposure to euro-denominated assets due to a higher perception of risk surrounding one of the region's largest economies. This could encourage a shift toward markets viewed as more stable and limit the euro's ability to attract consistent demand. If concerns surrounding France's fiscal outlook continue to intensify, confidence in the common currency could deteriorate further and continue supporting downside pressure on EUR/USD.

Is the Dollar Still a Threat?
It is also important to monitor the dynamics surrounding the U.S. dollar. Following the release of the latest Federal Reserve minutes, markets continue to expect that another rate hike could take place before the end of 2026.

This outlook continues to support the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets and helps explain the resilience that the U.S. currency has maintained in the short term. The situation can be observed through the DXY, the index that measures the dollar's performance against its major counterparts, which continues to trade around the 102-point area, highlighting that demand for the dollar remains relatively stable.

Source: TradingEconomics

This dynamic remains important because it limits the euro's ability to recover. As long as the dollar continues benefiting from relatively supportive U.S. monetary policy expectations and maintains its current strength, EUR/USD may continue facing difficulties in regaining momentum during the coming sessions.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

The major bearish trendline is regaining relevance: Since January 2026, a long-term bearish trendline has been developing on the EUR/USD daily chart. Although this technical structure lost some relevance during the more neutral market conditions seen in previous months, the recent weakness in the euro has begun to restore the importance of the bearish bias. As long as this dynamic remains in place, the downtrend could continue developing as the dominant technical structure in the weeks ahead.

 
MACD: The MACD histogram continues to trade below the 0 neutral line, a reading that suggests short-term moving-average momentum remains tilted to the downside. As long as this condition persists, selling pressure could continue dominating price action.

 
RSI: A similar picture can be observed in the RSI, which remains below the 50 neutral level, reinforcing the relevance of bearish momentum across the market. However, it is also important to note that the indicator is already trading below the 30 oversold threshold, a situation that could signal excessive selling pressure and create room for short-term corrective rebounds.

 
Key Levels:

1.13703 – Key Resistance: This level coincides with an important support zone that was broken in recent weeks and now acts as the most relevant upside barrier on the chart. Price action returning toward this area could begin to weaken the recent bearish momentum and support a more neutral trading environment.

 
1.12602 – Near-Term Barrier: A level that aligns with an important retracement zone observed over recent weeks and could become the primary reference to monitor in the event of short-term bullish corrections.

 
1.11275 – Major Support: A level not seen since May 2025 that remains the most important downside reference on the chart. Sustained moves toward this zone could reinforce the dominant bearish bias and open the door to a more aggressive extension of the current downtrend in the weeks ahead.

 
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

Despite the recovery attempt seen at the start of the week, a renewed phase of weakness has become increasingly evident around the Mexican peso in the short term. This can be observed in recent USD/MXN price action, with the pair gaining more than 1.2% during today's session, reflecting a stronger U.S. dollar and a renewed loss of ground for the peso.

For now, buying pressure remains relevant around the pair even after the release of Mexico's inflation figures. This reaction suggests that markets still do not see enough room for a significantly more aggressive Bank of Mexico in the near term. As long as expectations remain centered on a cautious central bank, part of the relative appeal that the peso has maintained through its interest-rate advantage over other currencies may continue to fade, a dynamic that could keep supporting USD/MXN strength in the sessions ahead.

What Happened with Mexico's Inflation Data?
Mexico released its latest inflation figures during today's session. Annual inflation came in at 3.45%, slightly below the 3.47% expected by the market. However, the reading increased from the 3.12% observed in July and the 3.26% reported in August, reflecting a moderate acceleration compared with previous months.

Even so, the most important point is that inflation remains within the Bank of Mexico's target range and continues to trade below the upper limit of 4.00%, meaning that the recent increase remains relatively contained.

In addition, much of the increase came from more volatile components, mainly food prices, while core inflation continued to moderate for an eighth consecutive month, reaching 3.75%, its lowest level since 2025. This is particularly important because it suggests that the rebound in headline inflation is being driven by isolated factors rather than a broad-based acceleration in inflationary pressures. As a result, the data does not currently appear to represent a significant threat to the cautious policy approach that the Bank of Mexico has maintained in recent months.

Source: TradingEconomics

This remains important because the latest inflation figures do not appear strong enough to alter current expectations regarding Mexican monetary policy. For now, markets continue to price in a benchmark rate close to 6.50% by the end of 2026, assuming inflationary pressures do not deteriorate more significantly over the coming months.

This outlook is also reflected in the bond market. Yields on 10-year Mexican government bonds had already been moderating before the inflation release and continue to trade around the 9.3% area, moving further away from the highs observed earlier this year. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields continue to display a different dynamic, holding near 5.2% and reflecting far greater stability in recent market activity.

The difference is important because, while Mexican bonds have gradually begun to lose some of their appeal, U.S. Treasuries continue to offer relatively attractive yields, a situation that could keep supporting capital flows toward dollar-denominated assets.

Source: TradingEconomics

Taking all of this into account, expectations of a more cautious Bank of Mexico have begun to reduce part of the relative appeal of the Mexican fixed-income market, while U.S. yields continue to show greater stability. This environment could continue limiting the attractiveness of peso-denominated investments and support demand for dollar-denominated assets. As long as these conditions remain in place, the Mexican peso may continue to struggle to recover ground consistently, leaving room for continued buying pressure around USD/MXN in the sessions ahead.

USD/MXN Technical Forecast

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

The aggressive uptrend continues to gain relevance: Over recent weeks, USD/MXN has been developing a pattern of higher highs, allowing a relevant bullish trendline to emerge in the short term. This structure remains the dominant technical pattern on the chart and, as long as buying pressure remains intact, the trend could continue consolidating as the market's primary technical reference in the weeks ahead.

 
MACD: The MACD histogram continues to trade above the 0 neutral line, reflecting that short-term moving-average momentum continues to favor a relevant bullish bias. This reading supports the importance that buying pressure continues to have within the pair's recent price action.

 
RSI: A similar picture can be observed in the RSI, which remains above the 50 neutral level, supporting the strength of the recent bullish momentum. However, the indicator has also moved above the 70 overbought threshold, a development that highlights the speed of the recent rally and could leave room for short-term corrective pullbacks.

 
Key Levels:

18.50 – Major Resistance: A zone of significant highs observed in previous months that currently stands as the most important upside barrier on the chart. Price action that manages to consolidate above this level could reaffirm the dominance of buying pressure, reinforce the development of higher highs, and support a more established bullish structure over the coming weeks.

 
18.00 – Current Barrier: A level that aligns with recent retracement zones and an important psychological reference for the market. This area could become the primary level to watch in the event of short-term corrective declines.

 
17.70 – Key Support: A zone of important lows observed in previous weeks that remains the most relevant downside barrier on the chart. Price action returning toward this area could place the current bullish trendline at risk and begin to reflect a more evident loss of direction, potentially favoring a broader phase of neutrality in the short term.

 
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

At 16:05 GMT, spot gold is trading at $4,107.44, down $3.90 or -0.09%. It opened at $4,112.73, reached $4,143.43 and bottomed at $4,103.45.

The Fed Still Has Another Hike in the Market The September Fed minutes did not give gold traders much room to buy. Officials agreed on the quarter-point increase, but not all for the same reason. Some were focused on energy and other price shocks. Others were worried inflation was spreading through demand.

Either way, officials still think inflation is too high. They aren’t ready to let long-term yields carry the tightening.

Governor Christopher Waller said more hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation down, though not necessarily back to back.

FedWatch puts the odds of a hold at the October 28 meeting at 80.6%, with a 19.4% chance of another quarter-point increase. December is a different trade. The market puts 86.3% odds on at least one increase by the December 9 meeting.

December is the date gold has to carry.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecastsDaily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield The 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.30% Thursday after reaching 5.354% Wednesday, its highest level since 2002. The 30-year was near 5.65% after trading just under a 24-year high the day before.

The 10-year auction Wednesday drew strong central-bank demand, but it still cleared at the highest yield since November 2000. Buyers showed up. They demanded a lot of yield to do it.

Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday. That is the next test for a market that has been questioning who will own long-dated U.S. debt as deficits grow and oil climbs.

Those same deficit worries are part of why gold has a floor under it. With yields over 5%, nobody’s in a hurry to chase it.

Hormuz Risk Is Supporting Gold, Not Lifting It The Strait of Hormuz is still a risk for the metal. Tanker operators are dealing with more threats and intimidation after Iran warned it could block routes it has not authorized.

That keeps a geopolitical bid under gold. It also helps explain why the market did not collapse after Wednesday’s selloff.

It hasn’t turned the trend, though. Traders are looking at Treasury yields, the dollar and December before they look at the tankers.

Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold is trading lower Thursday after failing to extend the early rally. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main top at $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. A move through the main bottom at $4,066.54 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The minor trend is down. Wednesday’s high at $4,184.38 is the new minor top. A trade through this level will turn the minor trend up and show that buyers are doing more than reacting to the low.

The first resistance is the long-term 61.8% level at $4,230.51. Above it, resistance comes in at $4,315.81, followed by the 50-day moving average at $4,331.62.

A break through $4,066.54 would expose the main bottoms at $3,996.06, $3,959.80 and $3,942.10. The 61.8% retracement level at $3,886.46 is the deeper downside target.

What to Watch The 30-year Treasury auction is the next live test for gold. The 10-year sale found buyers Wednesday, and the yield still stayed high. The long end and the dollar haven’t backed off, and Thursday’s early buying didn’t survive that.

Spot gold topped at $4,143.43 early Thursday and slipped back toward $4,103.45 by midday in New York. The bias is to the downside while the main and minor trends are down, gold remains under $4,230.51 and the market trades below the 50-day moving average. Buyers need to take out $4,184.38 first. Sellers need $4,066.54 to resume the downtrend.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Historic Gold rush reprices global debt [Video]

Gold Talking Points:
Last week started with a descending triangle breakdown and yesterday showed the same. But the response to each has been different and this raises the prospect of change.
The prior descending triangle saw prices break down and then range with support at the 4100 zone. The more recent item saw a fast snap back, and prices are in the same 4100 zone that was in-play before the move.
Bigger picture, it’s the $4k level that looms large but ideally for bulls, support would show above that, illustrating a degree of bullish anticipation.
Gold prices have had a rough six-week stretch following the failure at 4700. While the Fed avoiding rate hikes in July and then the Treasury buyback announcement a couple weeks later helped to fuel a rally in gold, the backdrop has been considerably less friendly since, with Treasury yields flying and odds around the FOMC expecting more of a hawkish tilt.

But from the big picture, it’s still not terrible as the moderation earlier in the year simply took some of the fuel out of an overbought market that had spent much of the prior two years in an aggressive rally.

Gold Weekly Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

The $4k level was big a year ago as it came in as support over a five week stretch in October, and as the Fed leaned into more cuts the rally took on another life of its own, with prices jumping up to and through the $5k level, eventually topping at just under $5600/oz. This certainly seemed to qualify as a ‘mania’ and the fundamental justification for such made sense given the backdrop.

With the Fed cutting in a second cycle, even with inflation remaining above their 2% target, there was even less attraction in holding reserves in US Dollars. Those rate cuts, combined with still-too-high inflation spelled for dilution of fiat currencies and because fiat currencies can really only be measured against other fiat currencies, this is something that wouldn’t necessarily show up against the Euro or the Yen or the British Pound.

But in an asset with finite supply, measured against something that’s essentially being diluted, that difference shows in a stark manner.

As a case in point, the $2k level was hard resistance for gold for three-and-a-half years, all the way until the Fed walked into a dovish posture in early-2024, eventually driving a breakout that continued to stretch for most of the next two years.

But the change-in-pace showed up earlier this year, in the form of a less controllable variable of higher oil prices, which have an expansive effect on economies as oil is in more than just transportation. This helps to explain the snap back move in gold back in March, followed by the continued drawdown as inflation levels moved higher earlier in the year.

Through much of that, however, the $4k level remained unfettered as buyers continued to show up early. But after Kevin Warsh’s first appearance at the Fed, when he took markets by surprise in sounding far more hawkish than what many expected President Trump’s hand chosen successor as the Chair of the FOMC to sound, and gold finally got down for that $4k re-test.

This took place over a seven-week period, all the way until just after the July FOMC meeting. But, from this, we can see clear evidence of buyers coming in for a perceived value whenever spot gold traded below the massive psychological level.

Gold Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold Sellers Are Still Driving
I talked about capitulation in the Tuesday webinar and another way of considering the topic is a liquidity sweep. When sellers have an open door to push for the breakdown, but, instead, pullback and fail to run with the sell-off, we have what could be the early stages of reversal. This kind of observation is indicative of a heavily oversold market when there’s simply few sellers left on the sidelines and, instead, profit taking after the fresh low leads into the bounce.

Yesterday was one of those scenarios, where bears had even open door to run with the break as another descending triangle had filled in. But they didn’t cease the opportunity and, instead, prices pulled back to a familiar level of $4135.

At this point, an absence of negatives doesn’t necessarily spell a positive – but it could be a novel first step.

What would be required for that scenario at this point would be a press from bulls to establish a higher-high, illustrating an increased willingness from buyers to continue to drive. We don’t have that yet, as that same $4135 level has so far proven resistant. But a higher-low support hold at $4100 – or even if a higher-low shows above yesterday’s swing low of 4066 – could begin setting the table for such.  

The clear zone of resistance overhead runs from 4200-4235 and once that is taken out, there will be a more attractive bullish theme to work with. That’s quite far away, however, so, at this stage, looking for a break and re-test of higher-low support at $4135 could be an attractive early-stage illustration of that scenario.

And from the weekly bar – if it does finish the week in the green – even if it’s just a doji – that capitulation theme gains another item of confidence.

Gold Four-Hour Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Multi-Timeframe Analysis
The USD/CAD rally has reached five straight weekly gains, stalling at the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 decline as a tight trading range forms. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through USD/CAD on the weekly, daily and four hour charts and sets out the data calendar ahead. Only three of the last 21 sessions have closed lower, and momentum remains overbought inside an ascending pitchfork, with a break of trendline support marking the risk of a larger correction. Fed funds futures have priced out a Federal Reserve rate hike this month while still pricing roughly 86% odds of another increase in December. Canadian employment data, the University of Michigan consumer survey and the U.S. consumer price index are next for the Canadian dollar.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Key USD/CAD Economic Data Releases

Active Short-term Technical Video Updates
Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Selloff Tests Critical Support
Swiss Franc Technical Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Attempt to Regroup After Sharp Reversal
US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY Bulls Meet Resistance at Yearly Highs
British Pound Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Rebound Challenges September Downtrend
Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Seven-Day Rally Tests Major Resistance
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Breakdown Threatens Deeper Correction
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is trading sharply lower Thursday after failing to hold the long-term 50% level at $60.835. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.

The move through last Friday’s low at $59.69 signals a resumption of the downtrend. A trade through the main top at $67.55 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is down. A trade through the minor top at $62.09 will turn the minor trend up.

The first resistance is $60.835, followed by $61.04 and the minor top at $62.09. The 50-day moving average at $64.21 remains well overhead.

The break below $59.69 puts the swing bottoms at $56.56 and $54.78 in play. The long-term value area extends from $60.835 down to the 61.8% retracement level at $46.48.

What to Watch The 30-year auction is the next test for silver. The Fed has left a December hike in the price, the dollar is close to Monday’s high and the 10-year remains near a 24-year high. Sellers have control going into the sale.

Spot silver reached $60.61 early Thursday, then broke below $59.69 on the way to $58.50. The bias is to the downside while the main trend and minor trend are down, price remains below the long-term midpoint and the market trades under the 50-day moving average. The next swing bottom is $56.56.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The silver market finds itself on the back foot early on Thursday, as we are looking at rates continuing to climb overall. With the negative correlation in effect, the drop in price isn’t a surprise.

Silver Technical Analysis

Daily chart of Silver Futures (SI1!) on TradingView with price at 59.045 near the 55.000–60.000 support zone. The silver market has been a bit negative in the early part of the trading session on Thursday, and we are breaking below the $60 level. This is the first sign of potential problems in this asset.

It is interesting to think that traders will continue to see this play out in the sense that rising interest rates in the United States continue to climb while pricing pressure in silver continues to drop. Keep in mind, this is a market that is very highly sensitive to interest rates and, by extension, the U.S. dollar.

Demand Zone Being Tested at the Moment Between $60 and $55 levels, there is a massive amount of demand based on technical analysis. Silver has a massive amount of demand attached to it, but this is where I am watching for some type of bounce. We will see if that holds. Quite frankly, we need rates to drop to make that more likely than not.

Rates are rising for a whole plethora of things, not the least of which would be oil, which took off today on renewed Middle East fears. So it all connects from the Persian Gulf into the bond markets and now into the silver pits.

I am bullish on silver long term, but I need to see some life in this market before I start buying it. I certainly do not want to short into a major demand zone. This area is worth watching at the moment, but trading it remains a bit difficult without a little help from the bond markets.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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Gold traded around 4,130 USD per ounce on Thursday, remaining near its lowest levels since early August, although it is currently making a strong attempt to rebound. Pressure on the metal intensified following the release of the Fed minutes, which kept the prospect of another US rate hike before year-end alive. Elevated oil prices remain an additional factor, keeping inflation risks elevated.

Minutes from the September meeting showed that all 19 FOMC members supported the rate hike. In addition, most participants considered another rate hike before year-end likely to be appropriate.

At the same time, markets largely expect a pause at the October meeting. The probability of a rate hike in December is estimated at around 78%, which continues to limit demand for gold.
Oil, meanwhile, is rising following reports that the Donald Trump administration has asked the Pentagon to prepare options for strikes against Iran, potentially before the mid-term elections. Risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also remain high, despite estimates that Middle East oil supplies have already recovered to pre-war levels.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, gold remains in a downtrend. After forming a corrective range around 4,143 USD, the market attempted to move higher but failed to establish a foothold above resistance. Another downward move is currently developing, with the prospect of testing support at 4,104 USD. A break below this level would open the way for a further decline towards 4,066 USD, with 4,027 USD remaining the main target for sellers. At the same time, a preliminary corrective rise towards 4,215 USD is possible. The MACD indicator confirms that the bearish scenario remains intact: the signal line is below zero, while the histogram remains in negative territory, indicating that sellers continue to dominate.

On the H1 chart, the market completed its local downward move with a test of the 4,066 USD area, after which an upward correction developed. Buyers managed to push the price back above 4,104 USD and test resistance at 4,143 USD. A local consolidation range between 4,126 USD and 4,143 USD is now forming. A rejection from the upper boundary would signal a resumption of the downward move, initially targeting 4,104 USD. A break below this support would open the way for a further decline towards 4,066 USD and then 4,027 USD. The alternative scenario envisages consolidation above 4,143 USD, followed by a corrective move towards 4,171 USD. The Stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone near 80 and is showing signs of turning downwards. This increases the likelihood that the current correction will end and renewed downward momentum will develop during the upcoming trading session. Selling remains the priority once a reversal from resistance is confirmed.

Conclusion Gold is attempting to rebound but remains under pressure near its early-August lows, weighed down by hawkish Fed minutes and elevated oil prices that are keeping inflation risks elevated. While all 19 FOMC members supported the September rate hike, markets largely expect a pause in October, with the probability of a December rate hike at around 78%. Rising oil prices, amid reports of potential US strikes on Iran, are adding further uncertainty. Technically, gold remains in a downtrend, with support at 4,104 USD and downside targets at 4,066 USD and 4,027 USD if the decline resumes. A corrective rise towards 4,171 USD is possible if the price consolidates above 4,143 USD, but the overbought Stochastic suggests the correction may be nearing its end. The near-term outlook remains bearish unless resistance is decisively broken.

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