Optimism’s grand experiment in Layer 2 economics has always rested on a simple premise: if you build on our stack, you pay rent. The OP Stack’s revenue-sharing framework, known as the Law of Chains, requires participating Superchain members to contribute the greater of 2.5% of their sequencer revenue or 15% of net sequencer profits to the Optimism Collective.
That model has historically generated an estimated $4.5 million annually for the Collective’s treasury, with the lion’s share coming from one chain in particular: Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2 juggernaut. But cracks in the arrangement are starting to show, and the implications for the OP token could be significant.
How the royalty machine works The Law of Chains was introduced in July 2023 to standardize how Superchain members share revenue with the broader Optimism ecosystem. The structure is straightforward but clever in its design. Chains pay whichever amount is larger: 2.5% of gross sequencer revenue or 15% of net sequencer profit.
For chains running lean operations with tight margins, the 15% net profit threshold kicks in. For those printing money on transaction fees, the 2.5% gross revenue floor ensures Optimism always gets its cut.
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OP Mainnet itself operates differently, contributing 100% of its net sequencer revenue to the Collective. That distinction matters because it positions the flagship chain as the ecosystem’s largest benefactor, not just another tenant.
The funds flow into two primary channels. First, they support Retroactive Public Goods Funding, or RPGF, which is Optimism’s signature initiative for rewarding builders who create value for the ecosystem after the fact. Second, governance has begun directing portions of revenue toward OP token buybacks starting in 2026.
Base’s complicated relationship with the Collective Base has been the Superchain’s revenue engine. Historical estimates pegged Base’s annual contribution to the Optimism treasury at roughly $4.5 million alone. In Q1 2026, Base’s contribution to the Collective came in at approximately $1.4 million, distributed specifically through RPGF.
That Q1 figure, annualized, would suggest around $5.6 million per year. But the context around Base’s anticipated exit from revenue sharing complicates that projection considerably. If Base moves toward greater independence from the Superchain’s financial obligations, the revenue base supporting Optimism’s public goods funding and token buyback programs shrinks materially.
The OP token and market implications For OP holders, the revenue-sharing framework creates a direct link between Superchain adoption and token value. More chains building on the OP Stack means more sequencer revenue flowing to the Collective, which in turn funds buybacks and ecosystem development.
The governance decision to begin directing revenues toward OP token buybacks in 2026 is particularly notable. The Law of Chains isn’t enforced by smart contracts at the protocol level. It’s a governance framework, which means compliance is ultimately a function of incentive alignment rather than immutable code.
Investors watching this space should track two metrics closely. First, the number of new chains joining the Superchain and their aggregate sequencer revenue growth. Second, whether existing large contributors like Base maintain their financial commitments or negotiate alternative arrangements.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
In brief Andy Konwinski, who cofounded Databricks and Perplexity AI, argued this week that concentrating AI power is a safety risk in itself. The essay followed Open Frontier, a working meeting of roughly 100 researchers in San Francisco on June 30. Turing Award winner Yann LeCun replied directly on X, comparing today's closed-lab AI moment to "medieval obscurantism akin to the Ottoman empire banning the use of the printing press for 200 years." Perplexity AI and Databricks co-founder Andy Konwinski thinks the AI safety conversation has a problem: It's being used to concentrate power, not prevent harm. Earlier this week, he published an essay making his case, with Anthropic as the star witness.
The case he builds starts with a decision Anthropic reversed in 48 hours. When Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5 on June 9, a paragraph buried in its 319-page system card disclosed that the model would silently degrade its own responses for anyone it suspected of training a competing AI.
Researchers found it. The internet did not take it well.
Anthropic walked it back, but for Konwinski this makes no difference when analyzing the bigger picture. "The problem isn't that Anthropic made a bad decision," he wrote. "The problem is that they assumed the decision was theirs to make."
His essay, titled "Concentration of power in AI is a risk, not a solution," followed Open Frontier, a working meeting he convened through his nonprofit Laude Institute at San Francisco's Exploratorium on June 30. About 100 researchers showed up.
UC Berkeley dean Jennifer Chayes, who runs the College of Computing, Data Science, and Society, told a funding panel that Berkeley researchers are "all building on Chinese models because we don't have a Western open frontier model"—and that the safety messaging from OpenAI and Anthropic ahead of their IPOs amounted to a "very effective fear campaign."
Konwinski's argument is that centralizing access doesn't neutralize risk; it creates a different one. AI is foundational infrastructure—in the same category as railroads, electricity, and the internet. Those technologies reorganized society around whoever controlled the underlying layer. The same is coming for AI. His alternative: a research commons with frontier-scale compute that lets top researchers reach the frontier without needing permission from a private lab to do it.
LeCun: It's the Ottoman empire banning the printing pressYann LeCun, Meta’s former chief scientist, replied to Konwinski's essay on X with no ambiguity. "I've been disseminating a similar message for years,” he replied on Konwinski’s post. “The concentration of power in AI and the desire for control is by far the biggest danger of AI."
Exactly. I've been disseminating a similar message for years.
The concentration of power in AI and the desire for control is by far the biggest danger of AI. It could lead to a few private companies and/or countries being in control of access to information, access to…
— Yann LeCun (@ylecun) July 3, 2026
He also had a historical comparison ready. "It's a kind of medieval obscurantism akin to the Ottoman empire banning the use of the printing press for 200 years, in part to keep control of the dogma, but also to protect the corporation of the calligraphers and scribes," LeCun wrote.
LeCun’s prediction for where this ends: "Infrastructure wants to be open. Foundation models are becoming an infrastructure and will inevitably become commoditized. Long term, the money is in the application layer."
LeCun left Meta in late 2025 and launched AMI Labs in Paris with $1.03 billion in seed funding in March 2026—his own answer to the question. The company runs on world models and his JEPA architecture, plans to open-source its research, and has no commercial product expected for years.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
In brief Andy Konwinski, who cofounded Databricks and Perplexity AI, argued this week that concentrating AI power is a safety risk in itself. The essay followed Open Frontier, a working meeting of roughly 100 researchers in San Francisco on June 30. Turing Award winner Yann LeCun replied directly on X, comparing today's closed-lab AI moment to "medieval obscurantism akin to the Ottoman empire banning the use of the printing press for 200 years." Perplexity AI and Databricks co-founder Andy Konwinski thinks the AI safety conversation has a problem: It's being used to concentrate power, not prevent harm. Earlier this week, he published an essay making his case, with Anthropic as the star witness.
The case he builds starts with a decision Anthropic reversed in 48 hours. When Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5 on June 9, a paragraph buried in its 319-page system card disclosed that the model would silently degrade its own responses for anyone it suspected of training a competing AI.
Researchers found it. The internet did not take it well.
Anthropic walked it back, but for Konwinski this makes no difference when analyzing the bigger picture. "The problem isn't that Anthropic made a bad decision," he wrote. "The problem is that they assumed the decision was theirs to make."
His essay, titled "Concentration of power in AI is a risk, not a solution," followed Open Frontier, a working meeting he convened through his nonprofit Laude Institute at San Francisco's Exploratorium on June 30. About 100 researchers showed up.
UC Berkeley dean Jennifer Chayes, who runs the College of Computing, Data Science, and Society, told a funding panel that Berkeley researchers are "all building on Chinese models because we don't have a Western open frontier model"—and that the safety messaging from OpenAI and Anthropic ahead of their IPOs amounted to a "very effective fear campaign."
Konwinski's argument is that centralizing access doesn't neutralize risk; it creates a different one. AI is foundational infrastructure—in the same category as railroads, electricity, and the internet. Those technologies reorganized society around whoever controlled the underlying layer. The same is coming for AI. His alternative: a research commons with frontier-scale compute that lets top researchers reach the frontier without needing permission from a private lab to do it.
LeCun: It's the Ottoman empire banning the printing pressYann LeCun, Meta’s former chief scientist, replied to Konwinski's essay on X with no ambiguity. "I've been disseminating a similar message for years,” he replied on Konwinski’s post. “The concentration of power in AI and the desire for control is by far the biggest danger of AI."
Exactly. I've been disseminating a similar message for years.
The concentration of power in AI and the desire for control is by far the biggest danger of AI. It could lead to a few private companies and/or countries being in control of access to information, access to…
— Yann LeCun (@ylecun) July 3, 2026
He also had a historical comparison ready. "It's a kind of medieval obscurantism akin to the Ottoman empire banning the use of the printing press for 200 years, in part to keep control of the dogma, but also to protect the corporation of the calligraphers and scribes," LeCun wrote.
LeCun’s prediction for where this ends: "Infrastructure wants to be open. Foundation models are becoming an infrastructure and will inevitably become commoditized. Long term, the money is in the application layer."
LeCun left Meta in late 2025 and launched AMI Labs in Paris with $1.03 billion in seed funding in March 2026—his own answer to the question. The company runs on world models and his JEPA architecture, plans to open-source its research, and has no commercial product expected for years.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Ethical hackers from security firm Hexens discovered a flaw in the Aptos blockchain that was patched but could have put up to $70 billion in digital assets at systemic risk, including stablecoins and cross-chain bridges.Researchers simulated the attack with a over-90% success rate under real network conditions, using a well-provisioned server setup that cost just $3,000 to simulate about 1/3 of the validator network, and the attack required no insider access or special permissions.The vulnerability was reported through emergency security channels on Feb. 25, and a patch was deployed within days to prevent any funds from being lost.A $3,000 server was enough for a blockchain security researcher to simulate an attack path they say could have put as much as $70 billion in crypto infrastructure at risk.
At the center of the disclosure was a flaw in Aptos, a layer-1 blockchain built on Move, the smart contract language used by Aptos and Sui, that stems from Facebook’s shelved Diem project.
In late February, researchers at the blockchain security firm Hexens reported a critical vulnerability in the Aptos Move virtual machine, the execution environment that processes smart contracts on the chain, to the project’s development team. Hexens identified what it described as a "stale-cache bug" leading to a type-confusion vulnerability, a condition in which software can be tricked into treating one type of onchain resource as another.The
Aptos team did patch the vulnerability when it was flagged, and no funds were lost.
“Aptos Labs was notified of a potential issue through our bug bounty program on February 25 that was already being triaged internally at the time," an Aptos spokesperson told CoinDesk. "A fix was developed, tested, and deployed to mainnet within hours of discovery. No users or funds were impacted at any point."
The Aptos spokesperson also disputed the practical exploitability of the bug to CoinDesk. "Our analysis determined the bug would have extremely low exploitability in real world conditions."
However, the details of what researchers found offer a sobering look at how close the ecosystem came to a potentially industry-altering event.
The sensitivity of this class of bug comes down to how the Move language handles authority. Protocol permissions in Move, including the right to mint a stablecoin, control a bridge, or administer a lending market, are often stored directly as onchain resources. If those resources are compromised, the damage does not stop at one protocol. It extends to everything that trusts them.
Hexens' researchers offered a practical analogy to the bug: it is roughly comparable to a bug on an Ethereum-style chain that would allow attacker-controlled code to write into storage belonging to other contracts, bypassing the type-system guarantees that Move was specifically designed to uphold.
Mudit Gupta, CTO at Polygon, independently reviewed the proof-of-concept materials and said the exploit held up. "It ran as claimed, and the exploit made sense," he told CoinDesk. "It required a few conditions to be met, which it seems like they did on the mainnet."
Meanwhile, Grego AI, which independently verified Hexens' proof-of-concept, calculated that approximately $250 million in Aptos-native TVL was directly at risk based on the near-90% success rate, separate from broader cross-chain exposure.
The $70 billion riskThe vulnerability, discovered by Vahe Karapetyan, CTO and co-founder of Hexens, could, if left unchecked, have exposed a far larger systemic risk surface across bridges, stablecoins, DeFi protocols and centralized exchanges, costing billions and creating a crisis far beyond Aptos itself.
And all it would've taken was a few thousand dollars' worth of servers.
The total cost to spin up the infrastructure needed to run this experiment was approximately $3,000 for a server that simulated an environment designed to approximate Aptos mainnet conditions. Although if a malicious attacker were to actually go through the exploit, it would have required considerably less, without requiring validator access, insider knowledge or privileged protocol permissions.
The team ran the exploit path roughly 20 times in a simulated environment and succeeded 17 or 18 times. The two or three failed attempts didn't stop the network, meaning the attacker could have simply had another window to try again.
The simulation was built to closely approximate real network conditions, using a cluster of more than 30 validator nodes, a mainnet-shaped stake distribution, organic transaction traffic and heavy execution contention. The Hexens team also tested what they call "non-armed calibration techniques": dry runs that measured mempool and block-construction conditions before committing to an armed attempt. The firm said those steps materially reduced the uncertainty introduced by the exploit's probabilistic elements, making the attack path more reliable in practice.
Based on public data collected at the time of reporting, Hexens assessed direct and first-order protocol exposure on Aptos, covering DeFi protocols, tokenized assets, stablecoin infrastructure and liquid-staking systems, at low single-digit billions.
In such exploits, however, the broader risk could've been greater, as blockchain-level compromises rarely stop at the affected chain.
Hexens assessed that the broader first-order systemic risk was approximately $70 billion — a huge number that includes value accessible through bridges, cross-chain messaging systems, stablecoin administration flows and centralized exchanges.
Grego AI noted that the exploit could also be used to steal protocol capabilities, including those held by LayerZero, Wormhole and USDC's CCTP. "If malicious actors had access to this bug, they would have been able to take all [the] TVL that they want[ed]," said Justus Hanna, CEO at Grego AI.
The simulation shows the industry remains vulnerable to hidden bugs in the blockchain technology.
If an attacker had actually found and exploited the bug, in theory, it could have easily dwarfed the massive $1.5 billion stolen in a Bybit hack last year. Most recently, in June, Zcash (ZEC) plummeted 38% after developers revealed a critical bug that had lurked undetected in its privacy pool for four years, one that could have allowed an attacker to print unlimited counterfeit tokens without anyone knowing. Before that, nine-figure bridge hacks and protocol exploits drained liquidity pools and rattled confidence in the infrastructure underpinning the broader market.
It’s worth noting that $70 billion is an estimate based on minting a mammoth amount of USDC stablecoin and using Circle's Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) to move it across chains. If a malicious attacker did this, and given how large the number is, it’s also likely a company like Circle would halt USDC transfers, although that has come under scrutiny recently as the stablecoin issuer said it doesn't freeze assets without legal authorization. So, in theory, if everyone stepped in, the entire $70 billion figure likely wouldn't be achieved—but it would still have rocked the industry nonetheless.
What this proof-of-concept testing demonstrated was access to the kinds of authority that sit at the top of cross-chain systems: bridge capabilities, signer capabilities, master-minter roles and protocol accounting state. Researchers said they validated a takeover of a master-minter-style role and demonstrated the use of a legitimate administration path, stopping short of actually minting tokens but showing why such roles belong in the threat model. The dominant vector into the broader surface runs through centralized exchanges, specifically the Aptos bridge pathways that connect onchain activity to exchange deposit crediting.
Response and disclosureThe same day Hexens filed its report, a "SEAL911" emergency warroom was opened to coordinate the response. SEAL911 is a volunteer security group that has become a key first-responder layer across the crypto ecosystem.
The vendor was notified hours after the warroom opened, and four major downstream projects were alerted that afternoon, each receiving local-runnable proof-of-concept material and analysis of relevant authority patterns.
A public pull request reflecting the patch became available on February 27. Aptos stated that a private-validator patch had been deployed before the public commit.
Hexens, meanwhile, says it has not received a technical rebuttal or evidence-based argument disputing the demonstrated impact classes. The firm claims that the main concern relayed back to the researchers involved the probabilistic aspects of the exploit, precisely what the team's calibration work was designed to address.
While no funds were stolen, the simulation showed that in a blockchain-level compromise, rate limits, issuer freezes, bridge controls, exchange monitoring and validator patches are not secondary safeguards. They can become the boundary between a contained bug and a market-wide exploit.
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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Jun 30, 2026
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Why it matters:
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
A claim is making the rounds: Sui’s public mainnet hit over 6 million transactions per second. That’s a number worth pausing on, because context is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.
The 6M+ TPS figure has circulated on social media, but verified benchmarks from the Sui Network itself and credible on-chain data tell a more complicated story.
What the benchmarks actually show Sui’s mainnet launched on May 3, 2023. Since then, its real-world throughput has averaged in the low hundreds of TPS daily, with occasional spikes approaching 900 to 1,000 TPS under peak load conditions.
A December 2025 benchmark conducted on the mainnet recorded approximately 103,435 certificate-per-second (CPS) performance under controlled testing conditions.
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Historical testnet figures are even more eye-catching. Across various workloads with 100 validators, Sui’s testnet benchmarks ranged from roughly 10,871 TPS on the low end to 297,000 TPS at peak, with a time to finality around 480 milliseconds.
The 6 million TPS figure itself has surfaced in a different context entirely. That number is more closely associated with Solana’s Firedancer client during its testing phase, not Sui’s mainnet.
No announcement from the Sui Network’s official channels, and no report from credible outlets, has confirmed a 6M+ TPS result on Sui’s public mainnet.
Why TPS claims keep getting weaponized Sui’s underlying architecture does have genuine technical ambition. The network uses an object-centric data model and has pursued consensus improvements through its Mysticeti upgrade, which targets lower latency.
Sui competes for developer attention and liquidity against Solana, Aptos, and a field of Ethereum Layer 2 networks. In that context, a 6 million TPS headline, even an inaccurate one, functions as positioning.
What this means for investors watching Sui Investors drawn to Sui because of performance narratives should do one thing first: locate the primary source. If a throughput claim doesn’t trace back to an official Sui benchmark or a named, verifiable third-party audit, treat it as unconfirmed.
Sui has attracted developer activity in decentralized finance and gaming applications. The Mysticeti consensus upgrade represents a credible engineering effort to close the gap between theoretical and practical performance.
A chain that processes 103,000 transactions per second in a controlled test but sees real-world peaks near 1,000 TPS is a chain with headroom, not a chain that has demonstrated demand at scale.
Watch developer adoption metrics, total value locked in Sui-native DeFi protocols, and any official network performance disclosures as the leading indicators that matter here.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
TLDR ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, accumulated more than 349,000 shares of SOFI between June 29 and July 2 via the ARKK ETF SoFi shares have tumbled over 30% this year, trading near $18.24 Analyst consensus remains at Hold, with average price targets between $20.69 and $22.56 First quarter fiscal 2026 revenue hit $1.09 billion, representing 42.6% growth year-over-year and surpassing forecasts CEO Anthony Noto purchased 15,545 shares at $16.00 in May, while the company’s CTO executed a share sale in June Cathie Wood’s investment firm, ARK Invest, has been steadily accumulating shares of SoFi Technologies (SOFI) in recent trading sessions. The firm’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) acquired 54,838 shares on July 2, representing approximately $1 million in value. This transaction came after earlier purchases of 202,095 shares on June 30 and another 92,999 shares on June 29, bringing the three-day total to over 349,000 shares.
SoFi Technologies, Inc., SOFI
Shares of SOFI started trading Friday at $18.24, a significant discount from the stock’s 52-week peak of $32.73. The fintech company has experienced a sharp decline of more than 30% since the beginning of the year. Technical indicators show the 50-day moving average currently stands at $16.88, compared to the 200-day moving average of $19.77.
While ARK’s buying spree signals confidence, the broader analyst community remains cautious. Out of 21 analysts tracking the stock, the consensus lands at Hold, with a breakdown of 10 Hold ratings, six to seven Buy ratings, and three Sell ratings, varying by data source. Price target averages span from $20.69 to $22.56, suggesting limited upside potential from current trading levels.
What the Analysts Are Saying Moshe Orenbuch from TD Cowen maintained his Hold rating alongside an $18 price target. His analysis highlighted concerns about rising delinquencies in SoFi’s May 2026 personal loan trust data, though he observed that the cumulative loss rate has begun decelerating. Orenbuch also pointed out that SoFi lagged behind industry peers on delinquency metrics, potentially due to prepayment dynamics.
Matthew Coad of Truist retained his Hold position but reduced his price target from $20 down to $17. His revision stems from lowered Q2 revenue projections, reflecting weaker expectations for both the loan platform and technology platform divisions.
Among the more bullish voices, William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey continues to rate the stock as a Buy. Following discussions with CEO Anthony Noto, Jeffrey acknowledged the absence of significant near-term catalysts but believes downside risk is limited. His forecast includes EBITDA CAGR exceeding 30% with gradual multiple expansion anticipated.
Citigroup maintains a Buy rating with a $30 price target. Stephens assigns an Overweight rating at $25. Both Barclays and Wells Fargo sit at Equal Weight, each targeting $18. The most pessimistic outlook comes from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods with an Underperform rating and $17 target.
Institutional and Insider Activity Institutional interest in SoFi has been widespread. Portman Square Capital initiated a new position during Q1, acquiring 37,753 shares valued at approximately $600,000. Norges Bank established a fresh stake worth more than $321 million in Q4. Vanguard expanded its holdings by 3.6%, bringing its total position to over 111 million shares. Morgan Stanley boosted its stake by 33.6%. Collectively, institutional investors control roughly 38.43% of outstanding SOFI shares.
Insider transactions paint a nuanced picture. In May, CEO Anthony Noto purchased 15,545 shares at $16.00 apiece, totaling $248,720. Conversely, CTO Jeremy Rishel divested 102,123 shares in June at $17.78 per share through a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 trading plan, mainly to satisfy tax liabilities associated with vesting equity compensation.
SoFi delivered Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.09 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.05 billion and marking a 42.6% increase from the prior year. Earnings per share came in at $0.12, meeting analyst expectations. For the full fiscal year 2026, management has issued EPS guidance of $0.60, while the Street anticipates $0.59.
Chinese crypto analyst Murphy stated that the current recovery in Bitcoin should be considered a “weak rebound,” and that the short-term target range is between $64,000 and $68,000. According to the analyst, the $70,000 level stands out as the ceiling for a short-term rebound within a bear market.
According to Murphy’s assessment, the average cost for current short-term Bitcoin investors is concentrated in the $64,000-$68,000 range, especially among those holding BTC for less than a month and less than three months. Therefore, the Bitcoin price needs to make repeated attempts to break through this region.
The analyst stated that each time the price approaches this cost range, some weak investors might sell as their unrealized losses turn into profit. Murphy noted that this creates a cycle of “breakout, resistance, pullback, and another breakout attempt,” arguing that this cycle is necessary for the formation of a bottom consensus.
Murphy divided the expected recovery into three main levels. Accordingly, the $64,000 and $68,000 levels are being watched as critical resistances related to the cost zone for short-term investors, while the $70,000 level corresponds to the realized price (STH-RP) of short-term investors.
In on-chain analysis, STH-RP is considered the bull-bear dividing line in terms of market sentiment. According to Murphy, every trend reversal usually begins with a sustained breakout above this line.
The analyst stated that in his baseline scenario, he expects a weak recovery in Bitcoin, with the price potentially rising to the $64,000-$68,000 range. However, he noted that a surprise surge above $70,000 could be considered a strong rebound.
Options market data also supports the levels highlighted by the analyst. Accordingly, the fact that market makers are in a positive Gamma position around $62,000 may lead to volatility being suppressed in this region through hedging transactions. Following a possible upward breakout, the next positive Gamma zone is located in the $66,000-$68,000 range, indicating that this region could also act as a significant resistance line.
*This is not investment advice.
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President Donald Trump’s official memecoin has generated a reported $636 million payout for him while nearly one million investors collectively lost $3.81 billion, according to newly analyzed blockchain data and financial disclosures.
Trump Memecoin Generated Millions Despite Investor Losses According to a report by The New York Times and blockchain analytics firm Nansen, the number of wallets that had lost a total of $3.81 billion in Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin holdings as of the end of June stood at 988,905. This figure also reflects realized losses by investors who’ve already sold their tokens as well as unrealized losses for investors who haven’t sold their tokens yet.
The findings came after Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure, where he was found to have received a $636 million payout tied to the TRUMP memecoin. The filing also revealed at least $1.4 billion in crypto-related income over the reporting period, mostly from World Liberty Financial (WLFI) licensing agreements related to the memecoin and token sales promoted by Trump.
The reports say that Trump made money from any kind of trading activity, whether there was a price change or not. However, there have been recent reports of Trump denying certain crypto earnings. In January, he was promoting the memecoin on Truth Social and urging people to purchase it to gain access to his community.
The token has been down since it was released three days before Trump’s swearing-in ceremony. Nansen closed at about $1.76 Friday, down about 97% from its high of $75.35.
Retail Investors Suffered While Early Traders Profited He discovered that about two-thirds of the buyers of TRUMP tokens lost money, and fewer than 500,000 wallets made a total of approximately $4 billion in combined profits, primarily by capturing and retaining gains by the early investors and seasoned traders who sold when the price of TRUMP was appreciating.
One investor who spoke to The New York Times, Nicholas Pinto, who voted for Trump in 2024, said he put in some $500,000 in the TRUMP token and estimated that he had sunk about half that sum. Buyers had come to trust Trump’s public stance, Pinto said, and it was “almost a legal scam.”
In the meantime, Nansen revealed that 85% of its 26,663 WLFI wallets were underwater as well, with losses estimated at an aggregate of $83 million, versus approximately $23 million in profits.
WSJ: “Nansen’s analysis of 26,663 wallets shows that 85% of World Liberty’s $WLFI token buyers in the secondary market are underwater.”
Trump cares so much about his supporters. That’s the secret to his appeal. The regular guy who was left behind finally feels heard pic.twitter.com/8W0ITEaGcn
— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) July 2, 2026
The financial disclosures are stirring up political debate in Washington. While Congress is considering the CLARITY Act, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand called for a prohibition on the creation and promotion of cryptocurrency memecoins by government officials and their spouses. Trump, on the other hand, backed up his crypto businesses, stating that there’s nothing wrong with making money off digital assets.
Check the upcoming airdrops calendar so you never miss a claim window.
PI Posts Worst Weekly Return in CMC Top 100@PiCoreTeam's native token $PI has emerged as the weakest performer across CoinMarketCap's top-100 assets over the past seven days, shedding approximately 9% during the period. The decline extends a painful run for the token: Pi Network reached an all-time high of $2.99 and is now trading roughly 96% below that peak. The price has been testing key support near $0.12 amid heavy token unlocks.
A persistent supply overhang is a central concern. Over 127 million PI tokens are set to unlock within 30 days, creating significant sell-pressure risk, and technicals remain bearish with price below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. The backdrop is notable given that the @PiCoreTeam launched three new products on June 28 during its annual Pi2Day event. The launches, branded PiVerify, Pi Sign-in, and SoloHost, are intended to pivot the project toward AI and identity infrastructure. PiVerify opens the network's KYC system, used to verify over 18 million users, to external businesses that must pay for the service in PI tokens. Despite the product announcements, the token failed to find buying support, with price continuing to drift lower through the week.
JTO and CC Round Out the Weekly Laggards@jito_sol's $JTO and @CantonNetwork's $CC followed PI as the next worst performers on CMC's top-100 list over the same period. Jito is a liquid staking and maximum extractable value (MEV) protocol for the Solana network, designed to help decentralize Solana by spreading stake across the network. JTO serves as the governance token of the Jito protocol, putting decision-making in the hands of the community. The token faces its own structural headwinds: network stress events on Solana can weigh on sentiment and TVL across Solana DeFi, directly hurting Jito's fee income, while ongoing token unlocks continue to add sell-side pressure.
The broader picture reflects a difficult stretch for mid and large-cap altcoins, with token unlock schedules and weak demand compounding downside pressure across several projects in the top 100.
Sources
CoinMarketCap: Latest Pi Network Updates
CoinGecko: Pi Network (PI) Price and Market Data
CoinMarketCap: Jito (JTO) Price and Market Data
The Hamster Kombat, PEPE, and BONK rally has put meme coins back in focus as traders rotate into higher-risk tokens.
The top meme coin market cap reached $28 billion today, rising 2.4% in 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the wider crypto market gained 0.83% to $2.17 trillion. Bitcoin price also surged beyond $62,000, which is risk-appetite.
Hamster Kombat Price Soars 82% as HMSTR Targets $0.00045 Hamster Kombat price jumped 82.35% to $0.000361 in the last 24 hours. The action was timed with new speculative demand being attracted to gaming and meme coins.
HMSTR outperformed a mostly flat crypto market, showing strong short-term trader interest. Hamster Kompats are widely regarded as one of the most popular tap-to-earn crypto games on Telegram. Its token contributes to the broader Web3 gaming growth of the Open Network.
Why is hamster kombat $HMSTR up ~84% today??
Is it TON season again 👀 pic.twitter.com/1bBP6UJOfr
— Aisar (@aisarcore) July 4, 2026
The traders are currently observing $0.00030 as the major support zone. A firm hold could lift HMSTR toward the $0.00040 to $0.00045 range. Nevertheless, any withdrawal of that support can lead to a more acute retreat to $0.00020. In the meantime, the momentum remains with active buyers among exchanges.
PEPE Price Gains 6% as Meme Coin Rotation Boosts Trading Activity Pepe coin price surged 6.39% to $0.00000268 over 24 hours, as meme coin demand strengthened. The gain of 0.90% in Bitcoin also contributed toward a broader market sentiment, providing traders with greater confidence in risk assets. There were more active derivatives, as PEPE volume increased by 77% to a total of $662.87 million.
Open interest also increased by 7.18% to $167.84 million indicating new positions were taken into the marketplace.
Source: Coinglass data Traders are now watching the $0.00000255 support level for direction. A firm hold could open another test of $0.000003 resistance. A drop under support could however subject PEPE to more pullback down to $0.000002. This retains short-term momentum pegged on buyer strength.
BONK Price Eyes $0.00000520 as MACD Confirms Bullish Momentum As of the time of writing, the BONK price surged to $0.00000494 on Binance’s four-hour chart. The token was accelerated when the buyers drove the price above the $0.00000480 zone.
The RSI was around 67, which is a good indication of momentum, though it is approaching overbought. The MACD also stayed positive, with the blue line above the signal line.
Source: Tradingview A clean move above $0.00000500 could open a retest of $0.00000520. However, failure to hold $0.00000480 may trigger weakness toward $0.00000460. Deeper selling could expose $0.00000440 as the next support. Short-term momentum is still controlled by bulls.
What’s Next for These Memecoins: Hamster Kombat, PEPE, and BONK Until then, Hamster Kompact, PEPE, and BONK will be pegged to market risk appetite. The majority of supports can maintain upside targets. However, the drop in volume or the pressure of Bitcoin could soon reverse the profits and traders might want to seek confirmation before adding new positions.
4 July 2026 | 18:11 Meme coins posted broad weekly gains led by MemeCore's 86% surge, reviving the debate over whether the sector is permanent market infrastructure or recurring speculative froth.
Key Takeaways Meme sector market cap stands near $26 billion. MemeCore gained 86% over the past week. SPX6900 rose 29%, BONK added 15.5%. Sector remains roughly 80% below early-2025 peak. Where the Sector Stands The total meme coin market capitalization sits at $25.96 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, a fraction of the roughly $137 billion peak reached in early 2025 during the memecoin mania that followed the U.S. election cycle. The drawdown of roughly 80% is deeper than Bitcoin’s decline from its own high, a reminder that the sector amplifies whatever the broader market does, in both directions.
Historical market capitalization chart of memecoins. The past week showed the amplification working upward. Among the ten largest meme tokens by market cap, MemeCore led with an 86% gain to a $1.96 billion market cap at the time of writing, followed by SPX6900 at 29% and BONK at 15.5%. Pepe added 11.8%, Pudgy Penguins 7.7%, and FLOKI 7.49%. The two largest names moved least: Dogecoin, still the sector anchor at $13.22 billion, gained 2.3%, while Shiba Inu rose 3.24% to $2.6 billion. That distribution, small caps sprinting while majors crawl, is the classic signature of speculative capital returning down the risk curve after a period of caution.
Why Meme Coins Persist The durability argument rests on the fact that meme coins compete on a different axis than utility projects. They do not need superior technology or real-world use cases; they need attention, community, and liquidity. Strong online communities sustain engagement between cycles, low nominal prices attract retail investors seeking asymmetric bets, and the sector’s extreme volatility is itself a product that professional trading firms actively consume.
Meme coins also serve a rotational function within crypto. When risk appetite rises, capital typically flows from Bitcoin and Ethereum toward more speculative assets, and meme coins are among the first beneficiaries, as this week’s small-cap-led rally illustrates. They generate trading activity, onboard new users to networks such as Solana, and act as a real-time sentiment gauge for retail participation.
A newer development strengthens the persistence case: the crossover into traditional finance. BONK core contributor Nom noted at Consensus Miami that Nasdaq-listed Bonk Holdings holds roughly 2.7% of BONK’s circulating supply and is targeting $115 million in token holdings by year-end, one of a handful of meme projects with exchange listings, ETF filings, or public-company structures behind them. Tokens with those anchors have institutional distribution channels that pure hype cycles never had.
Why the Skepticism Is Also Justified The same Consensus panel produced the sector’s sharpest self-criticism. Nom warned that new meme coin trades increasingly resemble long-shot sports parlays, and that most teams lack the staying power to reach regulated channels, distinguishing durable tokens from those that “rinse retail.”
The structural problems are real. Thousands of new tokens launch regularly, diluting liquidity and attention across an ever-expanding field where the overwhelming majority go to zero. Prices remain tied to sentiment rather than fundamentals, which makes the sector the most volatile corner of an already volatile asset class: the same tokens posting double-digit weekly gains now routinely lose 70% or more when risk appetite fades, as MemeCore itself demonstrated with a 75% crash earlier this year before the current rebound. Regulation adds a further layer: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has stated that memecoins fall outside investor protection frameworks, meaning holders have effectively no recourse when projects fail or founders exit.
The honest answer to whether meme coins have a future is that they already survived the test that was supposed to kill them. An 80% sector drawdown eliminated most projects but not the category, and capital returned to the survivors within the first week of improved sentiment. That behavior looks less like a passing fad and more like a permanent, cyclical asset class driven by market psychology rather than utility, closer to lottery-style retail speculation than to venture-style technology investment.
What that means in practice: meme coins can deliver gains during risk-on windows, and the past week’s numbers show it, but they remain arguably the most volatile segment of the crypto market, dependent on sentiment that can reverse without warning. Their trajectory probably will continue to track broader crypto conditions, retail risk appetite, and community strength rather than the merits of any individual token. The sector’s future looks secure for now; the future of almost any specific coin in it is not.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Meme coins are among the most volatile and speculative digital assets. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Author
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets. His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream. He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines. During his career, he has authored more than 5,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
Key Takeaways President Trump revealed $1.4 billion in cryptocurrency-related income during 2025 while serving in office Revenue sources included his Official Trump memecoin ($636M), World Liberty Financial ($594M), and stablecoin projects ($197M) In a CNBC interview, Trump maintained the earnings were entirely lawful and without impropriety Ethics watchdogs contend he’s monetizing the presidency while his government shapes cryptocurrency regulations Digital asset companies have poured $189 million into 2026 campaign financing to date President Donald Trump stood by his cryptocurrency earnings following federal filings that revealed he generated no less than $1.4 billion from blockchain-based ventures throughout 2025. His remarks came during a Thursday White House conversation with CNBC reporters.
🇺🇸 NEW: TRUMP ON HIS MASSIVE $1.4BILLION INCOME FROM CRYPTO
"There’s nothing illegal, there’s nothing wrong with it"
He adds: "I've made a tremendous amount of money, and I let people invest it. I don't even speak to them” https://t.co/xxdmUOTBIS pic.twitter.com/Z2NNiXm2fl
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) July 3, 2026
During the interview, Trump asserted there was “nothing wrong” or “nothing illegal” regarding the compensation. He further claimed incomplete knowledge of his portfolio’s full scope, stating to CNBC: “I could know about it. I didn’t.”
The financial disclosure originated from the US Office of Government Ethics. The figures positioned Trump as the highest-earning cryptocurrency participant in American governmental circles.
Revenue Stream Analysis The financial breakdown revealed approximately $636 million connected to his Official Trump memecoin, which debuted one day prior to his inauguration. Nearly $594 million originated from World Liberty Financial, a digital currency enterprise he established alongside his sons. An additional stablecoin operation contributed almost $197 million to the total.
Trump transferred operational management of his commercial interests to his two adult sons upon assuming presidential duties. However, he retained ownership of these assets.
Altogether, Trump documented exceeding $2 billion in earnings from various business activities and investment portfolios in 2025. Cryptocurrency ventures represented the lion’s share of that amount.
Ethical Concerns Emerge Watchdog organizations have characterized the income as exploitative profiteering. Their argument centers on Trump simultaneously influencing cryptocurrency policy frameworks while collecting substantial industry profits.
His current administration participates actively in deliberations surrounding the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Proposed legislation prohibiting central bank digital currencies also awaits his executive approval.
Mary Trump, the president’s family member, remarked during a CNN appearance: “Donald is once again pushing the envelope and nobody is putting the brakes on it.”
She expressed concern that individuals who invested in Trump-affiliated projects may have experienced genuine monetary losses.
These revelations surface as Bitcoin has plummeted approximately 50% from its peak valuation exceeding $126,000 reached in October. The wider cryptocurrency marketplace experienced significant downward pressure during the initial months of 2026.
Industry’s Escalating Campaign Contributions The cryptocurrency sector has significantly amplified its political expenditures. Following an estimated $170 million directed toward 2024 electoral contests, blockchain-affiliated organizations have donated $189 million toward 2026 races through June, based on Public Citizen consumer advocacy data.
That sum constitutes the majority of $294 million deployed by cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, technology corporations, and digital gambling enterprises during this electoral period.
The entire 435-member House of Representatives and 35 Senate positions face voters in 2026. Trump’s presidential tenure extends through January 2029.
Trump previously labeled Bitcoin a “scam” following his initial presidential term. He subsequently reversed this stance before the 2024 election, cultivating relationships with prominent cryptocurrency industry leaders.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
President Donald Trump’s memecoin has generated a reported $636 million payout for him while nearly 1 million buyers have collectively lost $3.81 billion, according to newly analyzed blockchain data and financial disclosures.
Summary
Nansen said nearly 989,000 TRUMP memecoin wallets lost a combined $3.81 billion by the end of June. Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure reported a $636 million payout from the TRUMP memecoin and at least $1.4 billion in crypto-related income. The disclosure has renewed political scrutiny, with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand pushing for stricter ethics rules in pending crypto legislation. According to a report by The New York Times, citing blockchain analytics firm Nansen, 988,905 wallets that bought the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin had recorded cumulative losses of $3.81 billion through the end of June. Nansen said the figure includes both realized losses and paper losses held by investors who have not yet sold their tokens.
The analysis followed the release of Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure, which showed he received a $636 million payout tied to the TRUMP memecoin. The filing also disclosed at least $1.4 billion in crypto-related income during the reporting period, largely connected to licensing agreements linked to the memecoin and token sales by Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI).
Unlike retail buyers, Trump benefited from trading activity regardless of whether the token price rose or fell because the venture generated revenue from transactions, The New York Times reported. During the token’s launch, Trump repeatedly promoted the memecoin on Truth Social, encouraging supporters to purchase it.
Three days before his January inauguration, Trump introduced the TRUMP memecoin, describing it on social media as a way for supporters to join his community. Since then, the token has fallen sharply from its peak. Nansen said the memecoin traded at about $1.76 on Friday, roughly 97% below its all-time high of $75.35.
Retail investors absorbed most of the losses According to Nansen, roughly two out of every three wallets that purchased the TRUMP token have lost money. The firm also found that fewer than 500,000 wallets generated about $4 billion in combined profits, with gains concentrated among a relatively small group of early participants who entered before the price surged.
The report said automated traders and experienced crypto investors typically capitalize on the rapid price swings common in memecoins by buying early and selling into retail demand. Nansen concluded that most profits were captured by this smaller group, while later buyers accounted for the majority of losses.
One investor interviewed by The New York Times, Nicholas Pinto, said he invested roughly $500,000 in the TRUMP token after supporting Trump in the 2024 election and estimated he had lost about half of that investment. Pinto argued that Trump’s public position encouraged confidence among buyers and described the project as “almost a legal scam.”
Responding to criticism, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told The New York Times that Trump had made the United States the “crypto capital of the world” and said his actions were taken in the interests of the American people.
Crypto earnings continue to draw political scrutiny In a recent CNBC interview, Trump said he was unaware that his crypto ventures had generated at least $1.4 billion, adding that he could know the exact amount if he wanted to and insisting there was nothing improper about earning money from digital assets. He also said he had no plans to distance himself or his family from their crypto businesses.
World Liberty Financial has also faced losses among investors. According to Nansen, 85% of the 26,663 WLFI wallets it tracked were underwater, recording combined losses of about $83 million compared with roughly $23 million in profits. The firm noted that the actual losses are likely much larger because many secondary-market transactions on exchanges cannot be traced publicly.
The financial disclosure has also intensified political debate in Washington. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand recently renewed her call for ethics rules that would prohibit government officials and their spouses from creating or promoting crypto memecoins while Congress considers the CLARITY Act.
According to Gillibrand, Senate negotiations are also examining stablecoin yields, anti-money laundering safeguards, and ethics provisions before lawmakers move the legislation forward.
CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Young Ju says that Bitcoin may still have another parabolic cycle ahead, but it will likely require a considerable amount of institutional-scale capital inflows.
Bitcoin might still enter another major bull cycle, but the amount of money needed to fuel it has grown dramatically compared to previous bull markets, according to the CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju.
In a recent thread, he argued that the cryptocurrency’s capital efficiency has declined considerably as the asset has matured.
In 2011, he said, roughly $2.7 billion in net capital inflows was enough to drive a rally of more than 55,000%. In the current cycle, however, around $697 billion in inflows produced a return of slightly less than 700%.
The main takeaway is quite simple: Bitcoin is much larger now compared to before, and moving its price requires far more capital.
Bitcoin’s Next Parabolic Move May Need Trillions Market cycles are interesting, and all of them, despite some similarities, are quite different.
According to Ju, in 2011, only $5 million in net inflows was enough to double BTC’s price. In this cycle, that figure increased to roughly $101 billion. He believes that the next parabolic run would likely require trillions of dollars in net capital inflows.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that upside is impossible; it just suggests that the asset may need a deeper institutional bid than in the previous cycle.
You may also like: Bitcoin (BTC) Flashes 3 Bullish Signals: $65K Incoming? Bitcoin Reclaims $60K as SOL, BCH Lead Alts Higher (Market Watch) Why Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Thinks Strategy’s Bitcoin Era Is Fading The analyst also framed the issue in terms of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. This is a metric that values each coin based on the price at which it last moved on-chain rather than simply mutliplying the current spot price by its circulating supply.
Ju said that if Bitcoin can absorb upwards of $1 trillion in realized cap, another parabolic rally remains possible. In practical terms, though, this would require the cryptocurrency to move beyond a retail-led ETF trade and become an established macro allocation for funds, corporations, institutions, and possibly even sovereign entities.
He noted that this shift is still early and hasn’t been invalidated yet.
Gold Comparisons: The Size of the Opportunity? The comparison with gold remains central to Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis. The current market cap of the precious metal, according to popular estimates, is $29 trillion, although keep in mind that this figure can vary depending on the assumed above-ground supply.
By contrast, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.25 trillion, at the time of this writing.
This gap remains the reason some analysts still see significant room for Bitcoin to grow as institutional adoption expands. Of course, it also highlights the challenge – every new cycle will likely require considerably larger pools of capital than the last.
Why Is Bitcoin’s Realized P&L Ratio Drawing Attention? Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio has fallen to a 43-month low of -0.35, placing the market in one of its deepest realized-loss phases since the collapse of FTX in late 2022.
The realized P&L ratio measures the net share of bitcoin supply being moved in profit or loss compared with total supply. A deeply negative reading means a larger part of the market is realizing losses, often during periods when weak holders are selling into stress rather than strength.
The latest reading is significant because the indicator has not fallen this low since December 2022, shortly after FTX collapsed and bitcoin traded below $16,000. Similar readings below -0.35 also appeared around major cycle lows in 2015 and 2019 before subsequent price recoveries.
CryptoQuant said the indicator has historically marked bitcoin bottoms with strong accuracy. “Historically the indicator has marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” the analytics firm said.
Does Extreme Loss-Taking Point to a Market Bottom? The data does not confirm that bitcoin has already bottomed, but it shows that market-wide stress has reached levels normally associated with late-stage capitulation. In previous cycles, deeply negative realized profit and loss readings appeared when selling pressure had already forced many investors to exit at a loss.
That dynamic can matter because realized-loss phases often remove excess risk from the market. When investors who bought higher are forced out, the remaining holder base may become less sensitive to short-term price weakness. That can create better conditions for a recovery if new demand returns.
Bitcoin recently fell to a near 2-year low of $58,190 on June 25 after a roughly 50% drawdown from its October high of $126,080. Since then, the asset has recovered more than 7%, while sentiment has improved cautiously from depressed levels.
The decline was partly blamed by several analysts on concerns around Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, after its Stretch preferred stock offering fell below its $100 par value to under $75. The move raised questions about the sustainability of its dividend structure and added pressure to an already weak bitcoin market.
Investor Takeaway The realized P&L ratio shows bitcoin is trading through a severe loss-taking phase. Historically, those conditions have appeared close to major bottoms, but the indicator is better viewed as a stress signal than a timing tool.
How Are Analysts Reading the Latest Drawdown? Some market analysts argue that the latest sell-off may have cleared excess leverage and brought bitcoin closer to a durable low. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the Strategy-related stress helped remove risk from the market.
“As the market continues to sort things out, I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever — and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall,” Hougan said.
That view matches the broader interpretation of realized-loss data. When investors are selling at a loss after a deep drawdown, the market is often moving from panic selling toward exhaustion. The key question is whether demand can return quickly enough to absorb supply from remaining sellers.
Bitcoin’s current relationship to realized price also supports the idea that the market is in a historically discounted zone. Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston said bitcoin is trading only 16% above realized price, the network’s aggregate on-chain cost basis. He noted that similar levels have historically been followed by strong forward returns of 41% over 6 months and 81% over 12 months.
What Are the Risks for Bitcoin From Here? The main risk is that bottom signals can appear before the final low is fully in place. A deeply negative realized P&L ratio shows heavy market stress, but it does not prevent another wave of selling if macro conditions worsen, leverage returns too quickly, or confidence in large bitcoin treasury holders weakens further.
That makes the current setup more useful for long-term investors than short-term traders. The data suggests bitcoin is no longer priced like a euphoric market, but it does not remove volatility risk. A recovery would still need confirmation from stronger spot demand, improving liquidity, and stabilization in broader risk assets.
Livingston argued that waiting for a perfect entry can be costly because bottoms are rarely obvious in real time. “Waiting for ‘the bottom’ is a wonderful plan with one flaw. The bottom never announces itself,” he said.
For investors, the message is not that bitcoin has no further downside. It is that the market has entered a zone where realized losses, sentiment damage, and reduced leverage are beginning to resemble prior late-cycle washouts. Whether that becomes a durable bottom depends on whether new demand can turn stress into accumulation.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged more than $2 billion in net outflows across a two-week stretch in late May and early June, part of a broader 13-day redemption streak that ultimately drained approximately $4.4 billion from the products.
BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by assets, was the primary source of the bleeding. The fund saw $1.3 billion in outflows in a single week, with multiple individual trading days exceeding $500 million in redemptions.
What triggered the exodus The outflows didn’t happen in a vacuum. Bitcoin’s price declined from early-year highs above $80,000 to a range between $60,000 and $73,500 during the same period.
Analytics firms including SoSoValue, CoinShares, and Glassnode tracked the selling in real time. The consensus explanation involves a cocktail of factors: shifting market sentiment, geopolitical tensions, rising Treasury yields, and recalibrated expectations around interest rate cuts.
Post-rally profit-taking played a role too. Bitcoin had a strong run earlier in the year, and a portion of the selling likely reflects investors simply locking in gains rather than making a broader bearish call on the asset class.
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Ethereum ETFs weren’t spared either. Those products faced their own extended outflow period, though Bitcoin funds dominated the overall redemption numbers by a wide margin.
Context matters more than the headline number Total assets under management across spot Bitcoin ETFs sat near $100 billion to $103 billion before the May pullback began. That means the two-week outflow represented roughly 2% of total AUM. The broader 13-day streak, at $4.4 billion, still only accounted for about 4% to 4.5% of the total pie.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts made a similar observation. With nearly $100 billion still parked in these products, the vast majority of investors held firm. The outflows, in their view, amounted to constrained noise rather than a structural shift in demand.
Cumulative inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs since their January 2024 launch had reached approximately $58 billion by April 2026. Even after the May-June selling, the products remained firmly in net-positive territory on a lifetime basis.
Signs of a floor emerging By early July, the selling pressure showed signs of exhaustion. After ten consecutive days of outflows, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a modest net inflow of roughly $221 million to $222 million.
What this means for investors The outflow episode highlights a tension that will define Bitcoin ETFs going forward. These products make it extraordinarily easy to buy Bitcoin exposure. They also make it extraordinarily easy to sell.
Traditional Bitcoin holders who custody their own assets face friction when selling: transfers, exchange deposits, withdrawal limits. ETF holders can redeem with a single click during market hours. That convenience cuts both ways, and it means ETF flow data will increasingly serve as a real-time sentiment gauge for institutional Bitcoin appetite.
The competitive landscape among ETF issuers also matters here. BlackRock’s IBIT bore the brunt of the outflows in part because it holds the most assets. When large institutional investors rebalance or de-risk, they sell what they own the most of.
For investors watching from the sidelines, the key metric to track isn’t any single day’s flow number. It’s the cumulative inflow trend over rolling three-month and six-month windows. At $58 billion in lifetime inflows, the structural bull case for Bitcoin ETF demand has significant cushion.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
PANews July 4 news, according to Bitcoin News, the latest data from the U.S. Federal Reserve shows that seasonally adjusted broad money supply (M2) rose to $23.05 trillion in May, breaking the $23 trillion mark for the first time and hitting a record high. M2 increased from $22.80 trillion in April to $23.05 trillion that month, a single-month gain of about $247.8 billion; it has risen for five consecutive months since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative expansion of roughly $623 billion, indicating a continued recovery of liquidity in the U.S. financial system.
This change has sparked market debate over the direction of monetary policy. Some critics argue that the Fed may be releasing liquidity again through a form of “stealth easing”; but mainstream economists note that money supply typically grows naturally with the size of the economy, and part of the current upturn also reflects a mean reversion after the previous contraction.
At the asset level, the market is once again focusing on the “currency devaluation trade” logic. Because Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins, it is viewed by some investors as a hedge against fiat expansion, and this narrative has been reinforced again as M2 hits new highs. At the same time, global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, further strengthening market demand for “fiat credit hedge assets.” Data shows that the multi-year gold purchasing trend among central banks is still ongoing.
The next M2 data release is scheduled for late July. The market will watch whether liquidity expansion continues and whether the Fed’s policy path will shift toward a looser cycle.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has delivered nearly identical returns under President Donald Trump’s second term and former President Joe Biden’s administration, suggesting macroeconomic conditions, not politics, have been the dominant force.
BTC Strongest During Obama Second TermIn a podcast on June 30, analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin’s price action across recent U.S. presidential administrations and found that the current cycle is tracking Biden’s term far more closely than many investors may expect.
After 524 days in office, Bitcoin was down 43.8% during Biden’s presidency.
At the same point in Trump’s second term, the cryptocurrency was down 41.1%, a remarkably similar trajectory despite vastly different political environments.
By comparison, Bitcoin’s strongest presidential-cycle performances came during Barack Obama’s second term and Trump’s first administration.
However, Cowen noted those gains coincided with Bitcoin’s much smaller market capitalization.
Macro Shift Changed The CycleCowen argued the primary difference between earlier Bitcoin bull markets and the current cycle has been the broader macroeconomic backdrop.
Unlike previous cycles, investors have had to contend with persistent inflation, higher unemployment concerns and tighter financial conditions, all of which have weighed on risk assets.
Rather than attributing Bitcoin’s weakness to politics, Cowen said macroeconomic conditions have largely dictated market performance.
Cowen also highlighted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as an important macro indicator.
He noted that the dollar’s recent recovery closely resembles its behavior during Trump’s first administration, when it initially weakened after inauguration before recovering and acting as a headwind for risk assets.
Based on that historical comparison, Cowen expects the dollar could continue strengthening toward the 105-106 range, potentially creating additional pressure for cryptocurrencies through the remainder of the year.
History Suggests Bottom Could Come Later This YearDespite the prolonged correction, Cowen pointed to similarities with the previous market cycle.
During Biden’s presidency, Bitcoin experienced a brief counter-trend rally in late summer before making one final decline that ultimately marked the cycle bottom ahead of the next bull market.
If the current cycle continues following that historical pattern, Cowen believes Bitcoin could establish its bottom later this year before beginning a new expansion phase in 2027.
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The technical outlook for Bitcoin has drawn renewed attention, with prominent analyst John Bollinger signaling a possible shift in trend for the BTC/USD pair. Bollinger, the creator of the widely used Bollinger Bands indicator, noted that a key W-shaped reversal pattern is taking shape in Bitcoin’s price. He suggests that if this pattern completes, it could mark the end of the downtrend that has persisted since October 2025.
W formation stands out in technical analysisFamed for developing the Bollinger Bands, John Bollinger underscored in a post on X that although Bitcoin has recently failed to maintain several bullish signals, strengthening the case for the prevailing downtrend, its current price structure aligns with a W reversal pattern resembling a double bottom.
John Bollinger observed that previous bullish structures in Bitcoin have broken down, reflecting the strength of the bear trend, yet he indicated the emerging W formation could signal a trend reversal.
Typically, the W pattern is validated after two bottom formations and a subsequent breakout above an intermediate resistance level. Bollinger’s shared chart illustrates that Bitcoin’s daily price movements are tracking along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. He further explained that the pattern is fractal in nature, observing similar smaller-scale top and bottom formations within the same structure, and identified the W pattern on the weekly chart as well.
Bollinger has maintained an optimistic view on Bitcoin in recent months. Early in May, he disclosed that he had opened a new long position in a Bitcoin investment vehicle.
Market signals and expectations divergeSeveral price indicators have begun to emit signals not seen since the last bear market in 2022. However, a broad segment of market participants believes that the ultimate market bottom has yet to be formed on a macro scale. According to this view, a definitive bottom may not emerge until the third quarter or later.
ETF inflows and the $60,000 support area under watchOn-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant emphasized the importance of renewed interest from institutional buyers. Last Friday, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs registered their first net inflow in ten days, interpreted as an early sign that selling pressure on the institutional side could be abating.
Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin is now in the late stages of its bear cycle but noted that the ETF sector has shown an initial indication that outflows are slowing. The net inflow reached $220 million. While not a huge amount in absolute terms, this was seen as a supportive factor for Bitcoin’s price direction.
Daan Crypto Trades remarked that although the $220 million inflow is not overwhelmingly large, it could provide crucial support, adding that Bitcoin’s resilience around the $60,000 level, despite significant outflows, signals a strong absorption phase.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the significance of the $60,000 mark. According to him, if Bitcoin posts a stronger reaction in the coming week, this level could become a major support area where substantial selling is being absorbed. The simultaneous rebound in institutional demand and the emergence of the W pattern has led investors to focus closely on these levels in the short term.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Strategy’s new $1.25B Bitcoin sale plan continues to elicit mixed reactions. Galaxy Research is the latest to weigh in on the monetization framework that the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury firm released earlier this week.
According to Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s Head of Research, the markets “like” the new plan, but cautioned that it does not eliminate the underlying “structural risks.”
This was a smart move by Strategy, but it may not resolve structural issues forever. Strategy still has a large preferred stack, and it still has large recurring obligations.
As part of the plan, Strategy raised $1 billion in cash and formalized a 12-month cash reserve buffer. That effectively provided about 17 months of coverage for its obligations.
Additionally, it approved selling up to $1.25B in BTC to fund the interest obligations.
MSTR rallied from $82.5 to $100, while preferred stock STRC jumped 26% from a record low of $71 to $90. Although STRC remained below its $100 peg, Galaxy said the rebound reflected positive market sentiment toward Strategy’s plan.
Source: STRC, TradingView But Galaxy’s Thorn added that Strategy’s obligations will increase in the next two years as $6.7B in convertibles will be due. He warned that Strategy’s BTC sales would effectively exacerbate MSTR and STRC weakness.
Galaxy’s ‘middle ground’ proposal to Strategy For Thorn, apart from cash reserves, MSTR and BTC sales, there is a fourth option that can address Strategy’s cash-flow concern.
A company with 847,363 BTC should not let a temporary cash-flow concern become an existential narrative crisis. Strategy should explore generating income from the BTC stack without necessarily selling spot BTC.
Thorn said this could be in the form of BTC lending or options strategies on a limited amount of BTC. This would reduce other issues like counterparty risk. In fact, Metapanet has leveraged options strategies for cash flow and BTC accumulation.
The analyst concluded that this was a ‘middle ground’ that does not dilute MSTR holders and sell BTC, which should also be considered.
This was different from JPMorgan analysts, who recommended increasing the cash reserve buffer from 17 months to 2 or 3 years by selling more MSTR, not its BTC holdings.
Galaxy’s proposal seemed apt because it’s been tested by Metaplanet. And it would not affect MSTR and BTC holders. It would also raise more cash flow to cover Strategy’s obligations if the risks are well managed.
Final Summary Galaxy urged Strategy to consider using a limited amount of its BTC for cash income generation instead of selling BTC or MSTR dilution. However, JPMorgan proposed increasing the cash buffer up to 2-3 years by selling more MSTR, but not its BTC stash
Why Did Draper Deny Moving Bitcoin? Billionaire investor and longtime Bitcoin bull Tim Draper denied moving his Bitcoin after blockchain analysts linked him to a large transfer of BTC to Coinbase Prime.
“Haven’t touched my BTC,” Draper said Friday, adding that he still expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 within one year.
The denial followed a report from blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, which said a wallet “possibly linked” to Draper had transferred 1,000 Bitcoin, worth about $62 million, to Coinbase Prime. The claim was based on data from Arkham, which labels the wallet as “Tim Draper?” through its AI-powered entity prediction feature.
The case shows how quickly large blockchain movements can affect market narratives, especially when a well-known investor is attached to the wallet. It also shows the limits of on-chain attribution. A blockchain transfer can be verified, but wallet ownership often depends on labels, historical patterns, exchange interactions, and probability-based analysis rather than direct confirmation from the person involved.
What Does The Wallet Attribution Issue Show? Arkham’s label used a question mark, reflecting a lower-confidence attribution rather than a confirmed identity. That distinction matters because investor behavior can be misread when analytics tools attach a public figure or institution to a wallet that has not been definitively verified.
The wallet involved in the transfer has interacted with Coinbase Prime several times over the past year. Its history includes a 1,000 Bitcoin transfer from Coinbase Prime on July 9, 2025, when BTC traded around $115,880 per coin. Those connections may support an analytics-based attribution, but they do not prove that Draper controlled the wallet or approved the latest movement.
For the market, the difference is important. A confirmed transfer by Draper could be read as a change in posture from one of Bitcoin’s most visible early backers. An uncertain wallet label creates a weaker conclusion: a large holder moved coins to an institutional custody or trading venue, but the identity and intent remain unconfirmed.
That gap is central to blockchain analytics. Public ledgers make transfers transparent, but transparency does not automatically produce certainty. Exchange deposit addresses, custody structures, institutional accounts, and delegated asset management can make ownership harder to establish from the outside.
Investor Takeaway Large wallet movements can influence sentiment, but attribution risk is high when labels are probability-based. Investors should separate confirmed transaction data from unverified claims about who controls a wallet or why assets moved.
Why Does Draper’s Bitcoin History Matter? Draper remains one of Bitcoin’s best-known early institutional-era supporters. In 2014, he won a U.S. Marshals Service auction for nearly 30,000 Bitcoin seized by U.S. authorities from Silk Road-related holdings.
He paid about $18.7 million for the BTC, equal to roughly $632 per Bitcoin. At the values cited in the source material, those holdings would now be worth about $1.9 billion. That history makes any wallet activity linked to Draper market-sensitive because traders associate him with long-term conviction rather than short-term trading.
The latest denial therefore reduces the immediate significance of the reported transfer. If Draper’s statement is accurate, the movement should not be treated as evidence that he is selling or reducing exposure. It instead becomes a case study in the risk of relying too heavily on wallet labels when interpreting institutional or whale behavior.
Coinbase Prime’s role also complicates the reading. Transfers to institutional platforms can serve several purposes, including custody changes, collateral management, settlement preparation, or trading. Without direct confirmation, a deposit to a prime brokerage venue does not automatically mean a sale is imminent.
How Does This Fit Draper’s $250,000 Forecast? Draper also repeated his long-running view that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 within one year. The target has become closely associated with him, although earlier timelines have not been met.
He has held the $250,000 forecast since at least 2018, initially expecting Bitcoin to reach that level by late 2022 or early 2023. Bitcoin’s highest recorded price cited in the source material was $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025, while it was trading around $62,530 at publication time.
The gap between Draper’s forecast and current pricing keeps his prediction in the high-conviction bull camp. Other Bitcoin supporters have also argued for much higher long-term levels, with some targets ranging from $500,000 to $1 million. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has said Bitcoin could reach as high as $700,000 if institutional adoption rises significantly. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has taken the opposite view, repeatedly arguing that the asset lacks intrinsic value and could fall to zero.
Prediction market pricing is more conservative. Polymarket’s Bitcoin price market for 2026 showed traders clustering around the $65,000 to $70,000 range, with bets concentrated near $68,000.
The result is a familiar split in Bitcoin sentiment. High-profile bulls continue to argue that institutional adoption and supply dynamics can drive another major repricing. Market-based expectations, however, remain closer to current levels. Draper’s denial of the reported transfer helps preserve his public long-term stance, but the episode also shows that in a transparent market, even uncertain wallet labels can quickly become part of the trading narrative.
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 mark following a sudden shift in investor sentiment. This price recovery has also reached the spot Bitcoin ETF market, which had been experiencing sustained outflows in recent weeks.
First net inflow in the ETF market after two weeksAccording to data from SosoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $221 million on the last trading day of June 2, 2026. This marked the end of a 10-day period during which funds experienced uninterrupted capital outflows.
The recent surge comes after a period of pronounced volatility, during which investors aggressively withdrew funds from Bitcoin ETFs. With this latest inflow, the funds have attracted fresh capital for the first time in nearly two weeks.
The $221 million that flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs on June 2 ended a 10-day net outflow streak, signaling renewed demand in the market.
Bitcoin price rallies above $60,000This turnaround in ETF flows coincided with a strong rebound in the price of Bitcoin. After trending downward for an extended period, the asset has recently staged a recovery from local lows, now stabilizing above the $60,000 threshold.
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin has climbed approximately 7% over the past three days and was trading at $62,536 at the time of writing. This rebound comes after steep daily losses that were seen in previous weeks.
Rising nearly 7% in just three days, Bitcoin reached $62,536 and reversed the downward trend of recent weeks.
Institutional interest could be returningThe return of capital to ETFs is seen as an indicator that institutional investor confidence may be recovering. The improved outlook in the market supports expectations of stronger price action in the weeks ahead.
Analysts suggest that if the current upward momentum continues, Bitcoin could make another attempt to reclaim the $63,000 level. Sustained demand may even pave the way for a move toward previous record highs.
SosoValue, a data platform tracking digital asset fund flows, compiles daily inflows and outflows in the ETF market. As a result, the platform’s data is closely watched by investors seeking to gauge the direction of institutional demand.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
PANews July 4 news – David Bailey, Chairman of Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto and Chairman of Bitcoin Magazine, stated that the failure of the long-contested “BIP-110” incident is, in terms of outcome, “extremely bullish” for Bitcoin, and believes it further validates the network’s resistance to attacks and splits.
David Bailey said the incident is regarded as a multi-year “governance-layer conflict attempt,” involving multiple battles such as mining pool competition, client fork proposals, UASF (User Activated Soft Fork) mobilization, disputes over node consensus manipulation, and large-scale information warfare across social media and developer communities. Even under a highly complex coordination and communication environment, the relevant camp still failed to gain significant hashrate support, accounting for “not even 1%,” showing that miners and economic participants did not deviate from mainstream social consensus.
David Bailey stated that this process validated the core feature of Bitcoin’s governance structure: final consensus is jointly formed by users, miners, developers, and industry participants, rather than dominated by a single group. At the same time, he emphasized that historically similar events (such as BIP148) have already proven that miners find it difficult to break away from social consensus, and this incident further strengthens that conclusion. However, he also pointed out that the incident exposed information coordination fragility within Bitcoin’s core development collaboration layer, which currently relies excessively on social media and public communication mechanisms, making it susceptible to information manipulation and the “amplification effect of AI-generated content,” thus significantly raising community collaboration costs.
David Bailey also mentioned that the controversy consumed a large amount of community time and attention resources, and called on the industry to participate more actively in the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) governance process to avoid being stuck in inefficient debates for prolonged periods. The Bitcoin network demonstrated strong resistance to splits in this incident, and he emphasized that “technical rationality will ultimately prevail.”
Jordi Visser, an experienced macro investor with over 30 years of experience and author of VisserLabs Substack, made groundbreaking statements about developments in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, the Fed’s monetary policies, and the future of the cryptocurrency market in his latest broadcast.
Visser argued that investors were greatly mistaken about Bitcoin, stating, “Everyone gave up on Bitcoin at exactly the wrong time.”
Visser stated that the recent stagnation and downward trend in the cryptocurrency markets has led to a significant loss of confidence among investors, summarizing the current market situation as follows:
“If you asked 100 people who have never invested in Bitcoin, all 100 would say ‘I’m not interested.’ Of those who are in the market, at least 60% to 70% are questioning their investment. ‘Losing hope’ is an understatement to describe the situation. However, on the technical side, we are finally starting to see positive divergences.”
Visser argued that while Bitcoin’s price has fallen below its February lows, it has managed to hold there. However, he emphasized that investors should not rush to judgment, advocating for caution until the price breaks above the 200-day moving average (currently above $70,000). He predicted that a new era in cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence would begin after this breakout.
The experienced investor, describing the current state of technology and AI stocks as a “mid-cycle slowdown,” noted that the aggressive upward trend in infrastructure and chip manufacturers (Micron, Nvidia, etc.) has now entered a more volatile consolidation phase.
Visser stated that the “easy profit” period achieved during the first wave of AI is over, and that holding technology stocks in portfolios for the long term will become difficult for institutional investors due to high volatility. He argued that this situation could turn into a major advantage for Bitcoin, whose volatility is relatively lower compared to technology indices, and that capital could shift back to crypto assets.
On the macroeconomic front, Jordi Visser, who also evaluated the Fed’s policies, believes that the market has overreacted to the hawkish statements of Fed officials. Stating that there has been a tremendous increase in productivity with the integration of artificial intelligence agents into the business world, Visser claims that traditional macro analysts have underestimated the deflationary effect of AI.
According to Visser, the cost reductions and efficiencies provided by artificial intelligence will bring down inflation, especially in established sectors such as insurance and healthcare. This will allow the Fed to keep interest rates stable or lower them for longer than market expectations.
*This is not investment advice.
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Iran just turned one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints into a geopolitical loyalty program. And it takes Bitcoin.
Iran’s ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, announced during the World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 4 that China and other allied nations will receive reduced transit fees for navigating the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway has become what Tehran now classifies as a matter of “national security” following a four-month conflict involving the United States and Israel.
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The toll booth at the center of global trade Tehran is reportedly considering imposing tolls on vessels traversing the strait, with fees rumored to reach up to $2 million per ship. Iran has signaled it will accept payments in Bitcoin and USDT, the Tether stablecoin. The fee reductions for China and allied nations function as a tiered pricing system. Iran plans to collaborate with Oman to ensure smooth transit operations under the new arrangement.
Why crypto fits Iran’s playbook Iran has operated under heavy US and international sanctions for years, which severely restrict its access to the traditional banking system. Bitcoin and USDT allow value transfer without relying on intermediary banks that might freeze or flag transactions. Stablecoins like USDT offer dollar-equivalent value without actually touching the US banking system.
Earlier in 2026, Tehran allowed selective transit of Chinese vessels through the strait during a period of broader blockades, illustrating the deepening bilateral relationship between the two countries. Iran has also been mining Bitcoin domestically for years, using its subsidized energy to power mining operations.
What this means for crypto investors No significant price movements in either Bitcoin or USDT were reported in direct response to the announcement.
The risk side is equally important. US regulators and Treasury officials have been cracking down on sanctions evasion through crypto. Tether, which has previously cooperated with law enforcement to freeze wallets, could find itself in an uncomfortable position between compliance and its largest growth markets.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Recent technical and on-chain data suggest that the selling pressure on Bitcoin may be easing. Analysts are noting that signals seen ahead of previous strong recoveries are now reappearing, increasing optimism among investors that a rebound could be on the horizon.
Noticeable changes in technical indicatorsBitcoin is currently trading at $62,502. Over the past 24 hours, its price has risen by 1.26%, with daily trading volume at $25.47 billion and a market capitalization standing at $1.25 trillion. The world’s largest cryptocurrency commands a market dominance of 57.99%.
Technical analyst Ali Martinez reports that three rarely-seen bullish signals have emerged simultaneously on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart. Martinez believes these indicators are being closely watched by the market to gauge Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
Ali Martinez observes that three strong technical signals appearing at once on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart point to a loss of momentum in the most recent selling wave.
The Tom DeMark Sequential (TD Sequential) indicator has generated a buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is displaying a bullish divergence. This divergence suggests that although prices have continued to move down, underlying momentum is starting to build. Additionally, a reversal in the SuperTrend indicator toward a bullish direction further supports a potential short-term recovery.
Mini glossary: The TD Sequential is a technical indicator designed to identify potential turning points in the market. The SuperTrend indicator uses price and volatility data to track short-term trend changes.
Should these positive signals be confirmed by sustained buying in the spot market, analysts identify $65,400 as the next significant target. This level also coincides with a resistance line highlighted by the TD Sequential indicator.
On-chain data points to a potential bottomOn-chain metrics are painting a similar picture alongside technical analysis. Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports that the realized profit and loss ratio for Bitcoin has dropped to minus 0.35—its lowest level in the past 43 months.
CryptoQuant notes that, historically, a sharp decline in this indicator has typically occurred near long-term price bottoms, after which Bitcoin has staged recoveries. The company cautions, however, that while this is a notable historical signal, it should not be interpreted as a definitive confirmation of a market reversal.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that steep drops in the realized profit and loss ratio have previously appeared near long-term bottoming periods for Bitcoin.
The convergence of multiple technical indicators with historically important on-chain signals is bolstering expectations of a market rebound. Nonetheless, analysts warn that no single indicator offers absolute certainty regarding market direction.
If Bitcoin breaks above the nearby resistance with strong buying activity, the $65,400 level is likely to become a focal point in the market. Conversely, if current support fails to hold, the price may remain range-bound and any recovery could face further delays.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Litecoin has once again entered the spotlight, but this time, it is not a dramatic price surge capturing attention. Instead, the regulatory landscape is at center stage. The Litecoin Foundation announced that Litecoin is now officially compliant with the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regulation. As the EU rolls out its comprehensive crypto asset framework, this move could strengthen Litecoin’s standing within regulated markets.
MiCA compliance takes priority over price actionAccording to the Litecoin Foundation, Litecoin is now recognized under a legitimate legal framework in the EU and meets MiCA’s requirements. The Foundation, established in 2017, is recognized as a core supporter of the Litecoin ecosystem’s development.
Glossary: MiCA is the EU’s unified regulatory framework for crypto asset issuers and service providers. Its aim is to standardize rules across member states while strengthening investor protection.
The Litecoin Foundation characterized this step as a significant signal of credibility, stronger consumer protection, and increased regulatory clarity.
Despite the major regulatory milestone, market reaction remained muted. At the time the announcement was published, Litecoin was trading at $42.56, marking a 0.35% decline over the past 24 hours. While the news sparked community interest, there was no noticeable upward momentum in the price.
A look at technical charts shows Litecoin consolidating around the $42 range. The cryptocurrency is struggling to push past resistance at $45.12, as investors remain cautious amid broader market conditions. For now, the news alone has not triggered a decisive shift in price action.
Key technical levels shape the outlookFollowing a sharp drop in June, Litecoin’s daily chart reveals a sideways trend. Technical indicators such as On Balance Volume have begun turning upward after recent lows, signaling a possible easing of selling pressure. This suggests a gradual return of buyer appetite could be on the horizon.
Yet, the technical picture has not produced a clear breakout. If Litecoin’s price can surpass and hold above $45.12, a recovery toward higher resistance levels becomes more likely. On the other hand, a dip below the $42 support zone, especially alongside negative overall sentiment, could spark renewed selling pressure.
Derivatives and on chain data confirm cautionMarket analytics reveal that investors have not rushed to reprice Litecoin following the regulatory news; instead, most are maintaining existing positions. According to data from Coinglass, the total open interest in Litecoin futures has remained flat at around $290 million, indicating that new leveraged bets have not entered the market.
IndicatorLevelInterpretationPrice$42.56Trading in a narrow rangeResistance$45.12Critical upside thresholdSupport$42Key level to monitor on the downsideOpen InterestAround $290 millionLimited appetite for new riskLiquidation data from the past 24 hours also reveals no clear dominance between buyers and sellers. DefiLlama figures show active address counts have stayed close to recent averages, suggesting that user engagement on the network remains steady even as prices trade sideways.
Overall, market indicators highlight that investors in Litecoin are seeking stronger confirmation signals before making major moves.
Greater regulatory clarity could support Litecoin’s long term outlook. Still, for any short term price direction to emerge, investors are likely waiting for higher trading volumes and a convincing move above key resistance levels.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
TLDR; XRP price prediction now depends on whether bulls can defend the $1.13 area and push the token through the $1.28 to $1.29 neckline. XRP has formed two major lows near $1.05 and $1.0092, with weaker selling volume on the second drop suggesting pressure may be fading. CoinGlass data shows XRP futures volume above $2 billion and open interest near $2.54 billion, keeping volatility risk high. XRP-linked ETFs added $59.4 million in June, while the Clarity Act debate still shapes sentiment around crypto market rules. XRP price prediction has moved back into focus after the token reclaimed the $1.13 area and tested early signs of a bullish reversal. XRP is trading near $1.145, up by 4% over 24 hours, with spot volume near $477.5 million and futures volume above $2.19 billion. Open interest stood around $2.54 billion, showing traders still hold large leveraged positions.
The rebound comes after months of pressure across the XRP price chart. Buyers now need a clear move above the $1.29 neckline to confirm the developing double bottom. Without that breakout, the current bounce still sits inside a wider bearish structure.
Source: Coingecko XRP Price Prediction Turns on $1.29 Neckline Breakout XRP first lost the $1.28 to $1.30 support zone in late May. That move pushed the token toward $1.05 in early June, where sellers drove heavy volume. The first drop came with stronger trading activity, showing aggressive exits.
The second low came on June 26, when XRP touched $1.0092. This low moved slightly under the first bottom, which can mark a bear trap. Sellers broke support, yet they failed to hold price under that level.
Volume also gives the pattern more weight. The second drop came with lower selling volume than the early June move. That shift often suggests sellers are losing control, even as price prints a lower low.
The XRP price prediction now centers on the neckline at $1.28 to $1.29. A daily close above that range would confirm the double bottom and open a possible move toward $1.57. That target comes from adding the pattern depth to the neckline.
Source:TradingView Before that, XRP faces resistance near $1.17 and $1.18. The 44-day moving average sits in this zone, while Fibonacci data also points to selling pressure nearby. Holder data shows large XRP clusters between $1.18 and $1.22, which may slow any rally.
ETF Flows and Clarity Act Keep XRP Price in Focus XRP price prediction also depends on whether fund flows keep supporting the market. XRP-linked ETFs added $59.4 million in June, marking a third straight month of inflows, according to SoSoValue data.
Those flows stand out as Bitcoin and Ether funds faced heavier pressure. ETF demand can reduce available supply over time, especially when exchange outflows rise. Still, daily inflows alone rarely move price unless broader market sentiment improves.
Regulation adds another layer to the setup. The Major County Sheriffs of America shifted its stance on the Clarity Act to neutral after concerns around Section 604 were partly addressed. Section 604 relates to protections for non-custodial developers under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
The group still wants changes tied to state and local law enforcement resources. That keeps the bill in focus for crypto traders, as market structure rules can affect long-term XRP sentiment.
For now, support sits near $1.00 to $1.13. Resistance stands at $1.40, followed by $1.88 if buyers clear the neckline first. Weekly chart projections point to higher zones near $3.27, $8.17, and $17.16, but those levels need a sustained breakout above recent highs.
XRP activity on Binance recorded an important directional change in June, as wallet behavior moved more toward withdrawals.
Specifically, the Binance exchange’s 7-day net depositing and withdrawing wallet count fell from +26,200 on June 7 to -6,210 on June 30, according to on-chain data sourced by market resource CryptoQuant.
For context, this represents a 32,410-wallet swing over 23 days, which pushes Binance from a period where deposits dominated into one where more wallets are taking XRP off the exchange than sending it in.
XRP Exchange Net Wallets | CryptoQuant Notably, June 30 marks the first negative reading since July 9, 2025, when the figure only dropped to -1,350. The current level of -6,210 is about 4.6x deeper, indicating a much stronger move toward withdrawals than previously seen.
Across other exchanges, withdrawals now appear to outweigh deposits as well, suggesting that fewer participants are moving XRP onto trading platforms. However, Binance still stands out, as the platform remains the only major exchange with a deeply negative net-wallet reading.
What the Data Can and Cannot Confirm Despite the shift in net wallet flow on Binance toward negative readings, the metric has its limits. It tracks the number of wallets moving XRP, not the amount being transferred. As a result, it cannot confirm whether large holders are accumulating.
For instance, a few wallets moving large amounts of XRP would appear similar to many wallets moving smaller amounts. This means the idea of accumulation remains possible, but the data does not directly prove it.
What the data does clearly show is a change in Binance’s flow structure. Essentially, fewer wallets are sending XRP to the exchange, while more are taking it off.
XRP Eyes July Recovery After 22% Drop in June This change in wallet flows happened alongside a decline in price, followed by a modest recovery. XRP began June around $1.30 but dropped by about 22% during the month, reaching a low of $1.01 in late June before stabilizing.
At the start of July, XRP traded between $1.04 and $1.09, placing it near its lowest level since early 2025. Interestingly, since then, the price has improved slightly, rising to $1.13 at press time and recording three straight intraday gains in July.
Amid the rebound push, the $1.00 level continues to act as an important support zone. This area has backing from a strong cost-basis cluster, where about 830 million XRP last changed hands between $1.00 and $1.06. Buyers have continued to defend this range, helping to hold the price above this level.
Binance XRP Reserves Fall to March Lows Meanwhile, the change in wallet behavior matches a decline in Binance’s XRP reserves. The exchange’s holdings dropped from around 2.78 billion XRP on May 12 to about 2.61 billion by July 2, a reduction of roughly 170 million tokens, or close to 6%.
This drop brings Binance’s reserves to their lowest level since March 2026, and shows a gradual reduction in the amount of XRP available for trading on the largest exchange by volume. This sort of decline often comes from steady withdrawals, not short-term changes.
A similar pattern appears on Upbit, though on a smaller scale. Specifically, XRP reserves there fell from about 6.515 billion tokens on May 30 to 6.457 billion by July 2, a decrease of roughly 58 million XRP. Together, Binance and Upbit have seen a combined drop of about 228 million XRP.
Whale-Sized Withdrawals on Coinbase While Binance shows strong overall outflows, Coinbase data reveals who is driving the withdrawals, as larger holders have started to enter the conversation.
Specifically, transactions above one million XRP made up about 10% of total outflow value on June 16, but this share increased to 25.7% by July 1.
The change took place over about two weeks and showed that bigger wallets have become more active in moving XRP off the exchange.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
XRP has regained the $1.13 price level, becoming the focus of short-term market direction after a period of volatility. The token rose nearly 4% in 24 hours to hover around $1.145, with spot trading volume at $477.5 million and derivatives volume surpassing $2.19 billion. Open interest remains elevated at $2.54 billion, highlighting an ongoing appetite for leveraged positions and persistent volatility risk.
Key resistance emerges at $1.29 on technical chartsXRP’s latest recovery attempt follows months of bearish pressure and is seen as a potential turning point on the charts. For buyers to confirm a forming double bottom pattern, the price must establish itself clearly above the neckline in the $1.28–$1.29 range. Until this level is convincingly broken, any upward movement could still be part of a broader downward trend.
After losing support at $1.28–$1.30 at the end of May, XRP fell to $1.05 in early June amid a spike in trading volume that signaled strong selling pressure. The second dip formed on June 26 at $1.0092. Although the price briefly dropped below the previous low, this move did not hold, raising the possibility of a technical bear trap.
A lower sales volume during the second decline suggests that while the price dipped further, selling pressure may be weakening.
Volume data reinforces this perspective: compared with the sharp sell-off at the start of June, the intensity of selling during the second retreat was more contained. In technical analysis, such divergences can indicate a gradual shift in control from sellers to buyers. If XRP rises decisively above the neckline, the double bottom pattern could target a move toward $1.57.
Immediately ahead, the $1.17–$1.18 zone acts as the first resistance, coinciding with the 44-day moving average and suggesting a cluster of selling interest, as also indicated by Fibonacci levels. On-chain holding data implies that significant XRP holdings concentrated between $1.18 and $1.22 might slow further gains.
ETF inflows and regulatory developments shape the outlookETP products tied to XRP drew $59.4 million in inflows during June, marking the third consecutive month of gains, according to SoSoValue data. This comes at a time when Bitcoin and Ether funds are experiencing more pronounced outflows, highlighting comparatively strong investor interest in XRP. While ongoing ETF demand could gradually reduce circulating supply, daily inflows alone may not sustain price momentum in the short term.
Glossary: SoSoValue is a market tracking platform that aggregates data on crypto asset funds and ETF flows. Open interest refers to the total size of outstanding contracts in futures trading and, when high, may increase price volatility.
On the regulatory front, discussions around the Clarity Act are being closely watched. The Major County Sheriffs of America shifted their stance to neutral on the bill after some concerns about Section 604 were partially addressed. This section is linked to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act and aims to offer protections for developers who do not provide custody services.
The Major County Sheriffs of America maintains requests for changes to state and local law enforcement resources, despite some reservations being resolved.
The organization’s continued focus on state and local enforcement resources underlines the ongoing importance of the legislation for the crypto sector. In the near term, XRP’s support zone is closely watched in the $1.00–$1.13 range. A decisive breakout above the neckline could bring $1.40 and then $1.88 into play as resistance levels. Meanwhile, longer-term projections highlight $3.27, $8.17, and $17.16 as potential upside targets, though achieving these would require XRP to break and hold above its most recent highs.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returned to positive territory on July 2 after a brief pullback, with Bitwise XRP ETF leading the day’s inflows.
Data from SoSoValue confirmed that July has started with net positive flows. Although inflows have slowed from the record levels seen late last year, institutional interest remains steady.
Bitwise Leads Daily XRP ETF Inflows Specifically, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $6.55 million in net inflows on July 2. Bitwise’s XRP ETF was the only fund to attract fresh capital during the session, bringing in the full $6.55 million. Its cumulative historical inflows have now reached approximately $501 million.
The latest inflow lifted total assets across all U.S. spot XRP ETFs to $988 million. Meanwhile, cumulative net inflows across all issuers also rose to $1.487 billion. The rebound came just one day after the market posted modest outflows.
Franklin’s Gains Couldn’t Offset Bitwise Redemptions On July 1, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.86 million in net outflows. Franklin’s XRP ETF (XRPZ) attracted $2.88 million in fresh capital. However, Bitwise’s XRP ETF saw $4.75 million in redemptions, pushing the overall market into negative territory.
Following that session, total XRP ETF assets stood at approximately $961 million. Historical cumulative net inflows reached $1.480 billion.
The return to positive inflows the next day suggests institutional demand remains resilient despite short-term fluctuations.
Monthly XRP ETF Inflows Remain Positive SoSoValue’s monthly data shows XRP ETF inflows have slowed compared with the strong finish to 2025. Even so, funds have continued to attract net positive capital in most months.
Monthly net flows:
November 2025: +$666.61 million December 2025: +$499.91 million January 2026: +$15.59 million February 2026: +$58.09 million March 2026: -$31.16 million (the only monthly net outflow so far) April 2026: +$81.59 million May 2026: +$131.94 million June 2026: +$59.46 million July 2026 (month-to-date): +$4.68 million July has started on a positive note after June’s $59.46 million in net inflows. However, current monthly totals remain well below the record buying seen during the ETFs’ first months.
Even with slower inflows, cumulative net investment has continued to rise. That points to sustained institutional participation.
XRP ETF Monthly Inflow Data | SoSoValue Institutional Demand Persists Despite Derivatives Slowdown The ETF data comes as XRP derivatives markets have cooled. Open interest has dropped sharply from around $1.3 billion to below $150 million. The decline signals a significant reduction in leveraged trading activity.
At the same time, on-chain activity has strengthened. Daily active XRP addresses are up roughly 72% from mid-June, suggesting network usage continues to improve even as speculative trading eases.
Institutional demand has also remained steady. Before the latest July inflows, U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted $15.34 million on June 29. The trend suggests long-term investors continue adding XRP exposure through regulated investment products despite weaker derivatives activity.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
XRP is climbing while the open interest declines. This suggests that short-covering is driving the move.
XRP seems to be showing one of the more interesting derivatives setups amongst the large-cap altcoins at the moment. On the surface, the price is climbing slowly, while the open interest is falling.
Normally, this would suggest that traders are stepping away from the market. But when this happens alongside a rising net position delta, it might be time to pay attention.
XRP is Rising, Here’s the Bullish Signal to Watch For The current uptrend from the past few days seems to be driven more by the closing of short positions rather than by aggressive new buying, according to an analyst. Put in simple terms, bearish traders seem to be exiting the market, and that short-covering pressure is helping push XRP’s price higher.
This can definitely support a steady move upward, but it is far from being enough for a sustained rally. A true acceleration usually tends to happen when new buyers begin entering the market with conviction.
This is why open interest matters a lot. A decreasing open interest suggests that leverage is being reduced – not added – which is typically a sign of waning conviction.
The daily outlook also supports a cautious bullish bias. XRP closed bullish during yesterday’s trading session, but it still needs to hold it to avoid slipping back into weaker territory. This is why a move toward the resistance at $1.13 remains very important, while stronger momentum could help push it even higher.
Shorts Getting Squeezed That said, the real trigger that traders should watch is the simultaneous increase in both open interest and net position delta. This would suggest that the market is shifting from a state where the increase is driven by closing short positions to one where longs are opening.
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Intraday, the cryptocurrency remains relatively volatile and stuck in a range. If it manages to push above and hold $1.18, this could offer an opportunity for buyers to return with force.
For now, the signal remains rather clear. The bears appear to be loosening their grip, but the bulls have not yet stepped in convincingly.
Ripple (XRP) price is up by 3.37% today, July 4, to trade at $1.13 at the time of writing. These gains come after an investment made by Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen into the American Perpetuals Exchange Corporation (APEC), founded by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s son, comes back into the spotlight
Ripple’s Chris Larsen Invests in APEC Exchange A previous report by CoinGape noted that Ripple’s co-founder has made an investment in the APEC exchange. However, he has not disclosed the amount of investment that he made.
Larsen’s investment is drawing attention because the founder of the APEC exchange, known as Theodore Gillibrand, is the son of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.
Senator Gillibrand recently said that Senators need to ensure that CLARITY Act passes with strong ethics rules to prevent President Trump from profiting off of crypto again after Trump made $1.4 billion in profits from the crypto market in 2025.
According to former FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, Gillibrand is now facing scrutiny for pushing to have ethics rules while her son is launching a derivatives exchange that might create a conflict of interest.
Ethics concerns have been one of the reasons that have made the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to drop to 40% on Kalshi.
XRP Price Outlook as Bullish Pattern Emerges The price of XRP has created a bullish double-bottom pattern after the price moved from the support level of $1.02 on June 30 to $1.13 today, July 4.
This bottom pattern has a depth of 25%, and that is how high the price of XRP could rise if it moves above the June 15 high of $1.29.
The AO bars that are green and shrinking in length suggest that bears are losing their grip. This could create room for buyers to come back, who could push XRP price to $1.29.
XRP price has also moved above the middle Bollinger band of $1.22. It now needs to confirm two more daily closes above $1.22 to confirm that bulls have a good grip.
XRP Price Chart However, if the price moves below the middle Bollinger band of $1.22, XRP might drop to the lower band of $0.99.
Futures Data Shows an Ongoing Short Squeeze as ETF Inflows Return Data from Coinglass shows that $7 million in XRP short positions were closed between July 2 and July 4, and the resulting buying pressure saw the price of XRP move from $1.04 to $1.13.
However, the long/short ratio that is at 0.91 per Coinglass data suggests that there are still more short positions than long positions.
XRP Derivatives Data If more short sellers face liquidation, the price of XRP could reach $1.29 like the double pattern suggests.
The $6.55 million in inflows to spot XRP ETFs also supports a bullish long-term XRP price outlook after inflows reached $6.55 million on July 2 after two straight days of outflows.
TLDR XRP gained approximately 3% to reach an intraday peak of $1.11 on July 3 following a rebound from $1.02 recorded on July 1 The Supertrend indicator generated its first buy signal since mid-June, with the previous signal leading to a 14% price surge Exchange-traded fund inflows for XRP restarted Thursday with approximately $7 million following a two-day withdrawal period Ripple initiated payment operations across Europe utilizing MiCA’s provisional CASP authorization structure Critical resistance levels positioned between $1.11–$1.15, while Supertrend support established around $1.05 XRP has successfully reclaimed the $1.10 threshold following a challenging beginning to July. The digital asset reached an intraday peak of $1.11 on July 3, representing approximately 3% growth from the $1.02 bottom established just 48 hours earlier.
XRP price The upward movement coincides with multiple favorable catalysts converging simultaneously — revived institutional buying through ETFs, an encouraging technical development, and additional enthusiasm from Ripple’s geographic expansion efforts.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared on X on July 3 that the Supertrend technical tool had generated a buy signal for XRP for the first time since mid-June. His observation stated: “The last buy signal preceded a 14% rally.” Martinez additionally highlighted that this same indicator accurately forecasted the previous 19% and 16% downturns, lending weight to the current signal’s reliability.
XRP: BUY SIGNAL
The SuperTrend indicator has just flashed a buy signal on $XRP for the first time since mid-June.
The last buy signal preceded a 14% rally.
It has also done an excellent job identifying trend reversals, catching the last two major declines of 19% and 16%. pic.twitter.com/tftPM7EaLC
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 2, 2026
Institutional investment flows through ETFs have resumed following a temporary interruption. Following two back-to-back days of capital withdrawals, United States-based XRP exchange-traded funds recorded nearly $7 million in fresh inflows on Thursday. Aggregate inflows have reached $1.49 billion, advancing from $1.43 billion registered on June 1. Combined assets under management average $988 million.
Source: SoSoValue Ripple’s entry into European territories contributed additional optimism to market sentiment. Ripple Payments initiated operations under provisional Crypto-Asset Service Provider authorization through the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework. This development arrived as certain competing platforms reduced their European service offerings to satisfy MiCA compliance standards.
Market participants predominantly dismissed worries regarding Ripple’s monthly release of 1 billion XRP from escrow, acknowledging that historically the majority of unlocked tokens are returned to escrow rather than distributed into circulation.
Technical Picture Points Higher Examining the daily chart reveals XRP has breached above a downward-sloping trendline that had contained every upward movement since late May. This breakout has recaptured the $1.10 threshold and directed attention toward the $1.12 resistance area.
Source: TradingView The MACD indicator displays a bullish intersection with widening positive histogram readings. The RSI registers in the mid-60s range — demonstrating strength while remaining below overbought territory.
XRP currently trades above both its 50-day EMA positioned at $1.07 and 100-day EMA located at $1.09. The upper Bollinger Band approaching $1.11 represents the immediate resistance barrier, while the 200-day EMA stands at $1.14.
Short Squeeze Potential Builds CoinGlass liquidation information reveals a concentrated grouping of short positions positioned directly above the current trading range, between $1.11 and $1.12. XRP has already started penetrating this zone.
An additional concentration of leveraged short positions exists near $1.14. Should purchasing momentum persist, mandatory short liquidations could propel prices higher toward that threshold.
Futures Open Interest registers at 2.2 billion XRP on Friday, modestly elevated from 2.18 billion recorded the previous day, remaining beneath the June maximum of 2.28 billion XRP.
Blockchain data from Santiment indicates XRP’s average trading returns have declined to their lowest level in approximately 12 years, positioning numerous holders in unrealized loss territory.
Ripple's CTO Emeritus, David Schwartz, has joined in on a fresh debate about crypto network fees after an old XRP discussion resurfaced, sparking reactions across the XRP community.
The debate was triggered by a fresh post from the same X user who issued the 2024 XRP commentary that referenced a Forbes article discussing Ripple's and XRP's early vision to offer low-cost payment solutions.
David discusses crypto network feesThe post, which looked back at Ripple's growth journey, pointed at how early blockchain leaders Jed McCaleb, Arthur Britto, and David Schwartz envisioned XRP as part of a new financial system focused on speed and low transaction costs.
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Moreover, it questioned whether XRP had delivered enough real-world value, arguing that its market value looked high compared with network fees and activity.
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While the post had also discussed crypto network fees while briefly criticizing XRP's utility, it reignited the common debate about whether expensive networks are stronger because users are willing to pay more to use them.
This triggered reactions from Ripple's CTO Emeritus, who argued that the idea that higher network fees are somehow better for the health of the crypto ecosystem is "truly bizarre".
XRP's utility questionedAlthough the post did not directly criticize XRP, it indirectly criticized XRP's utility, questioning whether XRP is generating enough utility and value.
Also, the Forbes article appears to have been warmly received by critics pushing the narrative that higher activity often generates higher fees.
While low fees are part of XRP's original design philosophy, the post tends to negatively influence how XRP is viewed, marking it as a weakness for the asset.
Schwartz has asserted that XRP's low network fees should be regarded as a strength, not a weakness, and that high fees should not be treated as a sign of a healthier ecosystem.
Nine Consecutive Weeks of Net InflowsUS spot $XRP ETFs have logged another week of positive flows, absorbing $17.19M in net inflows over the period according to SoSoValue data cited by @BSCNews. The result extends the streak to nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, a run that has played out even as the broader token price has faced headwinds.
Notably, the weekly total held up despite two individual days of net outflows within the same period, pointing to resilient baseline demand from investors using the ETF wrapper to gain exposure to $XRP.
Context: A Persistent Inflow Trend XRP spot ETFs have drawn net inflows for several straight weeks, pushing the cumulative total past $1.47 billion since their November 2025 launch. The products launched to strong early demand, and the inflow run has continued even through periods of price weakness for the underlying token.
Spot XRP ETFs absorbed net inflows for consecutive weeks while the token fell, which is the opposite of the reflexive "price up, flows up" loop that usually drives these products. Consecutive weekly inflows during a price drawdown point to accumulation rather than momentum chasing, since allocators are adding on weakness instead of buying strength.
The five US-listed spot XRP ETFs have seen Franklin Templeton's XRPZ, Bitwise's XRP, and Grayscale's GXRP among the leading contributors to inflows in recent weeks, according to SoSoValue data. Retail investors account for 84% of XRP ETF inflows, while larger institutional capital remains a key variable to watch.
The latest weekly figure of $17.19M is modest relative to the peak weeks earlier in 2026. XRP ETFs posted a 2026 weekly record of $60.5 million in inflows during the week ending May 15, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum saw significant outflows in the same period. The current pace is more measured, but the unbroken streak of positive weekly flows remains the headline for the asset class.
Sources:
XRP's ETF Inflow Streak: 24/7 Wall St.
Spot XRP ETFs Attract Biggest Inflows Since January: CoinDesk
Will XRP Break Its Downtrend in July 2026: Phemex
XRP has rebounded above the $1.10 threshold following a sluggish start to July. The cryptocurrency climbed from its intraday low of $1.02 on July 1 to reach as high as $1.11 during trading on July 3, logging an approximate 3% gain over two days.
Technical signals and institutional flows drive momentumSeveral factors fueled this upward movement in XRP. Renewed institutional demand through ETFs, optimistic technical indicators, and Ripple’s launch of payment operations in Europe combined to strengthen market sentiment.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted on July 3 that the Supertrend indicator flashed a buy signal for XRP for the first time since mid-June. He noted that the previous buy signal from this tool preceded a 14% rally, and the Supertrend indicator had accurately signaled the last two major corrections of 19% and 16%, respectively.
Ali Martinez stated that the Supertrend indicator on XRP gave its first buy signal since mid-June, and the last such signal came before a 14% increase.
The Supertrend is a technical analysis tool that tracks price trends and potential reversals. It produces buy or sell zones based on whether the price crosses above or below a defined volatility band.
Mini glossary: The Supertrend is an indicator used to monitor price direction and potential trend breaks. It typically operates with an ATR-based calculation and highlights support and resistance levels during periods of heightened volatility.
After two days of outflows, US-based XRP ETFs recorded a net inflow of roughly $7 million on Thursday. Total ETF inflows have risen from $1.43 billion on June 1 to $1.49 billion, with average assets under management currently standing at $988 million.
IndicatorLevelJuly 3 intraday high$1.11July 1 low$1.02Thursday ETF inflowApprox. $7 millionTotal ETF inflows$1.49 billionRipple’s European move and key price levelsRipple has launched its Ripple Payments operations across Europe after receiving a temporary Crypto Asset Service Provider authorization under the European Union’s MiCA regulatory framework. Known for its cross-border payments infrastructure, Ripple expanded in a period when some competitors contracted services in response to MiCA compliance demands.
With the temporary MiCA authorization, Ripple began payment operations in Europe, further boosting optimism in the market.
Concerns surrounding Ripple’s scheduled unlocking of 1 billion XRP each month remained limited. Most investors have noted that the majority of these released tokens are typically returned to escrow accounts, reducing the risk to the broader market.
On the daily chart, XRP managed to break above the downward trendline that had capped gains since late May. The $1.10 level has been reclaimed, with $1.12 now serving as a nearby resistance. MACD is showing a bullish crossover, while RSI sits in the mid-60s, signaling that XRP has not yet entered overbought territory.
Short position pressure in the spotlightXRP is trading above both its 50-day exponential moving average ($1.07) and 100-day EMA ($1.09). The upper Bollinger band approaching $1.11 highlights the primary resistance area, while the 200-day EMA hovers at $1.14.
Data from CoinGlass shows a significant accumulation of short positions between $1.11 and $1.12, with additional short clustering around $1.14. If buying momentum persists, forced short covering could propel XRP’s price toward these levels.
In futures markets, open interest measured 2.2 billion XRP on Friday, slightly above the 2.18 billion seen the day before but still below the June peak of 2.28 billion XRP. According to Santiment data, average realized returns in XRP are now at their lowest point in roughly 12 years, indicating that a substantial number of investors are holding paper losses.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The crypto industry has been debating the prospect of quantum computing for months now. This debate intensified as XRP Ledger engineer J. Ayo Akinyele said that quantum computing could start to pose a serious threat to blockchain security before many realize.
XRP Ledger Engineer On Quantum Risks Against Crypto In a recent interview with CoinGape’s CEO Sunil Sharma on the Voice of Web3 podcast, Akinyele revealed that he had to adjust the quantum computing timeline to account for recent advancements in AI.
“The thing that has changed my perspective on that is the introduction of AI to help with building quantum computing hardware that is reliable. Nvidia released their open source models in this direction that I think really didn’t get a lot of attention. But, I think in the coming months and years, we’ll see the fruits of the investment that they’re making on that side. That may speed up that possibility,” he said.
The XRP Ledger engineer’s remarks follow the signing of two executive orders by U.S. President Donald Trump. The orders call for Federal agencies to speed up the nation’s ability to develop quantum computers. It also aims to enhance cybersecurity protections against future attacks from quantum computers.
It is believed that certain computational tasks will be much faster on quantum computers, compared to the conventional ones. Although still in development, the technology could, in the future, degrade the cryptographic algorithms used to secure internet infrastructure, such as blockchain networks, digital wallets, and more.
Also, the field is advancing rapidly, says Akinyele, because of enhancements in the research of software, making earlier estimates less definitive.
“With the research that’s ongoing, I think my timeline has shifted from 2035 or 2030 to, you know, it could be 2029. It could be 2028,” the XRP Ledger engineer noted.
He believes it hinges on how the research progresses. It’s just really dependent on the progress that’s being made on the research side. I’m more on the pessimistic side that we may see this happening sooner than we’d like,” Akinyele noted.
A Look Into The AI Factor Although many researchers believe that the road to the practical quantum computer is still years away, Akinyele pointed out that AI might speed up the process even more.
“I’m just a little more pessimistic in the sense that I’m betting that there may be more progress because of AI than we would like that could change how quickly this can happen. Because of that assumption, I would prefer to be proactive in dealing with the threat rather than wait to find out,” the XRP Ledger engineer added.
His comments come as part of a crypto stakeholders demanding that the digital asset industry adapt to the future when it comes to quantum computing threats. These include repeated warnings from Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, who has urged Bitcoin developers to prepare for future quantum risks.
The Capriole founder remarked, “Quantum Computing is probably the most undervalued asset class in the world by orders of magnitude.”
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David Schwartz, Ripple’s longtime CTO now serving as CTO Emeritus, has stepped into a revived debate burning through the XRP community about the network’s transaction fees. Sparked by the resurfacing of an old assessment of XRP, the discussion is now focused on whether low transaction costs are an advantage or a potential weakness for a cryptocurrency ecosystem.
The classic XRP fee debate reignitedThe controversy traces back to a comment about XRP posted earlier in 2024. That post referenced a Forbes article analyzing Ripple’s early vision and foundational goals for XRP. The article reminded followers that XRP was created as part of a broader ambition to deliver fast, low-cost payment solutions for the modern financial system.
The discussion further highlighted Ripple’s growth story. Early developers Jed McCaleb, Arthur Britto, and David Schwartz were credited with building XRP around a core philosophy of speed and minimal transaction costs. Yet the same commentary questioned whether, even with these features, XRP’s real-world market value was matched by tangible utility and network activity.
XRP’s low transaction fees should be seen not as a weakness but as a clear strength. It’s genuinely strange to view high fees as a sign of a healthier ecosystem.
Schwartz stands up for low fee philosophySchwartz took a direct stand against the popular argument that costly blockchain fees signal a stronger crypto network. Having served as Ripple’s technical lead for years, Schwartz emphasized that low fees are a foundational part of XRP’s design philosophy—and this should be seen as a positive feature, not a drawback.
This position brings to the surface a recurring divide within crypto circles. Some commentators believe that networks where users are willing to pay higher fees are a sign of higher demand and, by extension, a healthier ecosystem. On the other hand, advocates of low-cost networks argue that affordable transactions enable greater adoption and usability, positioning the chain as more effective for daily use.
Ripple, widely recognized for cross-border payment infrastructure and institutional finance solutions, developed XRP with a clear focus on rapid settlement and minimal transaction costs. The current debate zeroes in on whether this design decision is viewed by markets as a benefit or a detriment—and how that perception shapes value.
Is utility or value at the center of criticism?While the revived post didn’t attack XRP directly, it opened the door to questions about the relationship between practical use cases and the token’s market capitalization. In particular, the fact that XRP’s network activities and fee revenues remain relatively low has led some in the industry to question whether the asset delivers genuine utility.
Countering this, Schwartz argued that high fees alone cannot meaningfully indicate either network strength or quality. In his view, a blockchain that is efficient, fast, and affordable provides a much sturdier foundation for serving users’ needs.
The presence of higher fees simply because network activity increases does not mean those fees are inherently a positive outcome.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
XRP has made its way into Australia’s financial parliamentary record. In the Australian Parliament’s Register of Members’ Interests, Labor MP Sally Sitou indicated her only cryptocurrency holding is XRP with local exchange CoinSpot.
Australian MP Lists XRP The filing identifies the digital currency as “Cryptocurrency (Ripple).” No Bitcoin and no Ether. Only XRP, included in the financial records of one of the world’s 15 largest economies.
The filing also shows that Sitou has physical gold through ABC Bullion and holds a wide-ranging portfolio of Australian and U.S. equities like the Commonwealth Bank, BHP, Meta Platforms and Costco. XRP is currently the sole listed digital asset.
Australian MP XRP Filing This disclosure sits inside a broader shift in how Australia treats crypto. The country’s Digital Assets Framework Bill Passed Parliament in April 2026, requiring exchanges and tokenized custody providers to obtain an Australian Financial Services License. Ripple is already pursuing that license, an early sign of its intent to entrench itself in the country’s regulated market.
Australia’s approach to regulation has changed significantly. In under a year, the nation moved from years of legislative silence to a well-organized licensing system for crypto firms.
The shift provides Ripple, the company behind XRP, an obligation as well as an opportunity. The moved has drawn wide attention on X, citing a continuation in adoption.
🚨🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA MAKES XRP OFFICIAL 🇦🇺🚨
Australia has officially disclosed XRP holdings in a Member of Parliament’s Register of Interests.
XRP is now publicly listed as part of a lawmaker’s financial assets in one of the world’s largest economies.
Adoption continues. 👀 pic.twitter.com/gJmALhkHYE
— John Squire 🇺🇸 (@TheCryptoSquire) July 4, 2026
White House Official’s XRP Filing & XRP’s Track Record Sitou’s revelation was not the only one capturing attention. Ian Kelley, who serves as the War Room Director at the White House and is also a Special Assistant to the President, reported XRP in a public financial filing after his appointment in January 2025.
His filing places the holding in a Coinbase wallet, valued between $1,001 and $15,000. Unlike Sitou, Kelley holds a broader crypto portfolio, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, and Cardano all appear alongside XRP.
Each asset in Kelley’s portfolio falls within the same $1,001 to $15,000 disclosure range. Neither filing reveals the exact number of tokens held. But both put XRP on the record in two separate governments on two separate continents.
Political financial disclosures carry weight. They are sworn documents. When a lawmaker or White House official lists an asset, it signals more than personal preference, it normalizes that asset within the official financial order.
For XRP, appearing in two such filings in a single week adds to a growing pattern of political legitimacy. The company’s pursuit of an Australian Financial Services License shows it is tracking the regulatory door as it opens.
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Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Attorney and XRP enthusiast Bill Morgan reveals what he thinks is XRP's biggest strength: its escrow.
Morgan says users only need to understand its escrow to know why XRP will continue to be a successful asset, with all other amendments and capabilities just adding more value. He added that the escrow set up by Ripple on the XRP Ledger is a great example of how it was used to stabilize the price and reassure the market that Ripple would act responsibly in distributing its vast holdings of XRP.
According to XRPScan, 32,444,984,760 XRP is currently in escrow, with 67,526,296,210 XRP now in circulating supply.
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In a separate post, Morgan highlighted the decline in XRP escrow as Ripple continues its 1 billion token unlock every month. He noted that about a year ago, the amount of XRP in escrow was just under 36%.
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Currently, it is below 32.5% (out of a total of 99,985,640,485 XRP available), which is not surprising given that Ripple does not re-lock about 300 million XRP per month. Morgan predicts that if this trend continues, there will be less than 29% in escrow by next July.
In a recent milestone, nearly a million agent transactions have settled through the XRP Ledger x402 facilitator.
40% to go for XRP Ledger fix upgradeThe fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment, which bundles bug fixes affecting Single Asset Vaults, the Lending Protocol, the permissioned DEX, Multi-Purpose Tokens, and permissioned domains, is currently in voting and has reached 40% consensus according to recent XRPScan data. This means that it still needs another 40% to attain the 80% threshold and achieve the majority required to enter the activation period.
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Version 3.2.0 of xrpld, a cleanup and maintenance release, introduces the fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment, which is a collection of fixes for various features.
The fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment adds precision and rounding fixes for Single Asset Vaults and the Lending Protocol. It fixes the 'ValidPermissionedDEX' invariant firing on a valid offer deletion, validates non-canonical Multi-Purpose Token amounts, and adds a zero DomainID check for permissioned domains. The amendment also adds the invariant 'AccountRootsDeletedClean,' which checks that a deleted account does not leave any directly accessible artifacts behind.
Here's what the company announced on the 250th birthday of the US.
As the world’s most powerful economy and the widely regarded leader of the free world celebrates its 250th Independence Day, various initiatives are emerging to contribute in some way, including one from Ripple.
The company behind the popular XRP altcoin announced that it has joined a nonprofit helping unemployed veterans to get high-quality jobs after their military service.
The organization, called Call of Duty Endowment, said it has already funded over 165,000 veterans, but explained that there’s still a high unemployment rate among the younger generation, which means that there’s “still more work to do.”
It wants to find jobs for 200,000 veterans by 2030, and Ripple has joined the special initiative for the 250th birthday of the US, called Giving4th.
The idea is to make Independence Day a national day of charitable giving. The company said it will match donations made to the Call of Duty Endowment of up to $10,000.
People who want to participate can use cash, stock, or cryptocurrencies, including Ripple’s two native tokens, XRP and RLUSD.
Ripple is joining #Giving4th — @America250‘s new movement to make Independence Day a national day of charitable giving.
We’re matching donations to @CODE4Vets up to $10K. CODE funds the most effective organizations helping veterans get back to work, preparing them for the job…
— Ripple (@Ripple) July 4, 2026
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About the author
Jordan got into crypto in 2016 by trading and investing. He began writing about blockchain technology in 2017 and now serves as CryptoPotato's Assistant Editor-in-Chief. He has managed numerous crypto-related projects and is passionate about all things blockchain.
Not many assets can post an 8% rally while a record share of holders sit deep in the red. That was the picture for XRP on Saturday, as a bounce pushed the token higher even as on-chain data showed losses had stretched to extremes never before recorded. According to the original report, the 30-day and 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios for XRP hovered near -45% and -47%, thresholds that analytics firm Santiment noted the token had never breached. For a portion of the market, those levels looked less like a warning and more like an invitation.
The Signal That Caught Traders’ Attention MVRV is a fixture in the on-chain analyst’s toolkit. It compares an asset’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization, effectively measuring whether the average holder is in profit or loss at current prices. Deeply negative readings mean that a broad swath of the market is underwater, and historically, extremes in either direction have carried meaning. Sky-high MVRV can signal overheating; deeply negative MVRV can reflect exhaustion and a potential floor. What made the latest XRP print stand out was its unprecedented scale. A 365-day MVRV near -47% is not simply a dip into the red. It is a signal that the average buyer over the past year is sitting on losses far in excess of what previous cycles produced, even during the token’s most punishing drawdowns.
Traders who lean on contrarian models often treat such stretches as a cue that risk-reward has tilted in favor of buyers. The logic is straightforward: if the bulk of the market is already at a severe loss, incremental selling pressure may fade, leaving room for a short-squeeze-like bounce even without a fundamental catalyst. That dynamic appeared to play out as XRP’s 8% climb outpaced many altcoins in a quiet weekend session.
Why This Time Could Be Different—or Not Relying on a single metric, no matter how historically powerful, carries obvious risk. XRP’s market structure includes an overhang that pure on-chain data does not capture. The token’s multi-year entanglement with U.S. securities regulators, intermittent exchange delistings in certain jurisdictions, and a retail base that can be quick to rotate out have all meant that oversold readings do not always resolve into sustained uptrends. Liquidity remains thin compared to top-tier layer‑1 assets, so moves can fizzle just as fast as they ignite. The record MVRV lows tell us where the pain sits, but not when—or whether—it will lift.
What the data does make clear is that previous XRP dips stopped before reaching this degree of holder loss. Whether that becomes a floor or a new baseline depends on broader risk appetite and the flow of speculative capital back into altcoins. For now, buyers who stepped in are betting that the most stretched downside in the token’s history leaves more room for price to recover than to fall.
On-Chain Data Gains Weight in Altcoin Trading The XRP move fits into a wider shift. Traders who once relied mostly on price charts and exchange order books now routinely pull MVRV, dormant supply, and wallet cohort data into their decision-making. Santiment’s work on XRP is part of a trend where on-chain signals increasingly drive short-term positioning, especially in large-cap altcoins where holder behavior can be tracked with reasonable accuracy. XRP’s 8% jump placed it among the notable altcoin movers this week, a list that also included TON and SIREN according to recent gainers data.
Whether the bounce sticks will come down to follow-through volume and whether the record MVRV lows attract more than just the nimblest traders. A signal this loud has never fired for XRP before, and for a token long accustomed to polarizing market narratives, that alone is enough to keep the tape busy.
AUTHOR
Brenda is a writer with three years of experience specializing in cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies. She graduated from the University of Mombasa with a degree in Psychology. She has worked at Cryptopolitan and Blockchain Reporter.
Securitize, one of Ripple’s strategic partners, has made headlines by becoming the first tokenization company to go public on Wall Street. This pivotal milestone is widely seen as a crucial step forward in bridging blockchain-based financial infrastructure with traditional capital markets.
A turning point for institutional finance and blockchainAccording to market analyst Diana, the listing of Securitize on a public exchange marks a defining moment for the tokenization of real-world assets. She notes that this event highlights the growing confidence institutional investors are placing in blockchain-based financial systems, as tokenization moves beyond its trial phase and cements itself in mainstream finance.
Securitize’s public offering demonstrates that institutional trust in real-world asset tokenization is rising, showing that this space has moved past its experimental stage.
Securitize has emerged as a leading platform for issuing, managing, and trading traditional financial assets on the blockchain. With its infrastructure that creates digital representations of securities, the company is gaining prominence among institutional product providers.
The platform is already powering major institutional products, including BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and VanEck’s tokenized US Treasury bill fund VBILL. This development further strengthens Securitize’s position at the heart of the sector.
InstitutionProductAreaBlackRockBUIDLTokenized fund infrastructureVanEckVBILLTokenized US Treasury bill fundRipple partnership becomes more prominentSecuritize’s relationship with Ripple has also drawn more attention lately. After Ripple acquired Hidden Road for $1.25 billion, Securitize began participating in tokenized collateral initiatives linked to the deal.
Simultaneously, Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD has started gaining traction in institutional settlement operations. The XRP Ledger is expanding its use cases as a blockchain network specifically developed to support tokenized assets and institutional-grade financial applications.
Glossary: Tokenization refers to the digital representation of traditional assets—such as bonds, fund units, or real estate—on the blockchain. RLUSD is a US dollar-indexed stablecoin developed by Ripple for use in institutional payments and settlement processes.
Diana emphasizes that as banks, asset managers, and financial institutions increasingly embrace tokenization, trillions of dollars’ worth of assets—from government bonds and private credit to money market funds, equities, and real estate—could eventually migrate to blockchain infrastructure.
Institutional interest continues to growDiana believes these developments are not isolated events, but part of a broader transformation reshaping global finance. In her view, platforms like Securitize and infrastructure providers such as Ripple and the XRP Ledger could take on central roles in the new era of digital capital markets.
Momentum among institutional players appears to be accelerating. Leading global financial institutions are actively exploring tokenization models to make asset issuance, settlement, and management more efficient.
JPMorgan also recently described tokenization as one of the most promising trends in modern finance. The XRP Ledger is increasingly being mentioned as a blockchain network considered for institutional tokenization initiatives.
These developments are steadily accelerating the transformation of blockchain from a nascent technology into a core pillar of global financial infrastructure.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
XRP jumped more than 8% as the crypto market showed some real catch-up energy heading into the July 4th weekend.
According to Santiment, most cryptocurrencies are no longer just watching equities hold up while they lag behind. After weeks of fear, ETF outflows, whale hesitation, and weak sentiment, buyers are finally stepping back in near key support. Most cryptocurrencies, including XRP, are trading higher on July 4.
XRP rose from the $1.02 low on July 1 after being stuck in a range between $1.00 and $1.07 for several days, marking the fourth straight day of gains since that date.
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Profitability indicators forecasted the current XRP rise, with all-time lows recorded for XRP average returns, hinting at a relief rally.
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XRP's 30-day and 365-day MVRV fell to about -45% and -47%, respectively, meaning that both short- and long-term investors are well underwater.
Santiment mentioned that, when taken together, XRP has never seen lower average returns in these timeframes in its more than 12-year trading history, indicating extreme fear. In the last seven days, XRP is up more than 8% as traders interpreted stretched losses as a contrarian signal.
XRP forms golden cross against BitcoinThe recent price increase has allowed XRP to gain strength against Bitcoin, with a golden cross setup appearing on the 2-hour BTC chart.
XRP/BTC 2-Hour Chart, Image By TradingViewThe 2-hour 50 MA has risen above the 200 MA, resulting in a short-term golden cross signal even as bullish momentum increases. XRP saw a sharp spike against Bitcoin in the July 4 session, reversing a downtrend from mid-June. The price remains in the $1 range, trading at $1.14 after hitting a 19-month low of $1.01 back on June 25.
Price disappointment hasn't reduced interest in XRP, on-chain data suggests. This week, the XRP Ledger saw 4,941 new wallets created in one day, the strongest network growth spike in over three months, indicating new users are stepping in despite sluggish price action.
The $1.00–$1.05 range is taken to be a likely dip-buy area, with sentiment reaching a 3-month high in FOMO.
Bitcoin rebounded near $62,000 after recovering from last week's lows, supported by optimism over Federal Reserve policy. Ethereum and major altcoins also gained, though investors remain cautious amid inflation, geopolitical tensions, energy prices and mixed ETF investment flows.
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AgenciesBitcoin climbed toward $62,000 while Ethereum and major altcoins advanced as easing Fed expectations improved sentiment despite persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Bitcoin is trading close to the $62,000 mark, recovering from around $58,000 a week ago. Despite the rebound, investors remain cautious as inflation, Middle East geopolitical tensions, energy prices and ETF flows continue to shape market sentiment.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin was up 1.37% and Ethereum was up 2.30% to trade at $1,754 mark. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin and Cardano gained upto 6.83%.
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Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX said the prospect of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy helped improve sentiment across risk assets, allowing Bitcoin to recover above the $60,000 mark, while Ethereum also benefited from renewed institutional interest as spot ETFs recorded fresh inflows.
Shetty further said that from a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to hold the $60,000-$61,000 support zone, with $63,000-$64,000 emerging as the next key resistance. For Ethereum, traders are watching $1,650-$1,680 as immediate support, while $1,750-$1,800 remains the next major resistance area.
In the past week, Bitcoin and Ethereum were up 3.62% and 11.05%. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin and Cardano rallied upto 19.16%.
Harish Vatnani, Head of Trade, ZebPay said Bitcoin rebounded after finding support at its recent double-bottom formation near $58,000 last week. Despite the recovery, the daily RSI remains below the 50 level, indicating that the broader momentum is still negative.
“Ethereum found support at its double-bottom formation near the $1,505 level and has rebounded sharply. The daily RSI has crossed above the 50 mark, reflecting improving bullish momentum”
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Vatnani further said that Ethereum and Solana investment products continued to attract inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of more than $290 million, reflecting a shift in institutional investor sentiment.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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