The price of Gold has recovered from June's sharp sell-off, and HSBC believes the precious metal can continue to rebound even as a hawkish Federal Reserve keeps US yields elevated.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded near $4,165 on Friday, up almost 1% on the day after rebounding more than 3% since the start of July.
The recovery follows an almost 12% decline in June, when prices briefly slipped below $4,000.
Image: Gold price in US Dollars - 2 day chart HSBC says the stronger US Dollar and higher real interest rates remain near-term headwinds, but argues that the recent correction has already priced in much of the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift.
The bank believes gold's longer-term fundamentals remain favourable despite the tougher macro backdrop, pointing to continued central-bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over rising government debt.
HSBC argues that even if the Fed keeps interest rates higher for longer, structural demand should continue to underpin bullion.
Image: XAU/USD 6 month historical chart
The bank also expects official-sector buying to remain an important source of support, while investors are likely to rebuild positions once confidence grows that US yields have peaked.
Although HSBC acknowledges further volatility is likely in the near term, it believes gold should continue to "shine through" the current hawkish environment rather than enter a prolonged bear market.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has slipped back towards 1.1415 as investors continue to favour the US Dollar following resilient US economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
HSBC believes EUR/USD is likely to face renewed downside pressure as markets shift their focus back to interest-rate differentials.
The bank notes that geopolitical concerns in the Middle East have eased, reducing one source of support for the Dollar. However, it argues that renewed disruption to shipping routes could quickly restore safe-haven demand for the US currency.
According to HSBC, firm US labour market conditions and sticky inflation continue to justify a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, keeping longer-term yield support firmly behind the Dollar.
The bank also highlights that Eurozone inflation has cooled, but underlying price pressures remain elevated, leaving the European Central Bank in a difficult position.
HSBC argues that "the EUR loses out on fundamentals", with interest-rate differentials now re-emerging as the dominant driver of EUR/USD.
The bank adds that the outlook could deteriorate further if energy prices rise again, warning that renewed disruption in the Middle East would increase stagflation risks for the Eurozone and add fresh pressure on the single currency.
Silver price retreats on Friday during the North American session, edging down by 0.54%, weighed by high US Treasury yields and a sudden shift in market sentiment, after US President Trump revealed that the ceasefire is “over.” At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $59.66.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookSilver is downward biased, as the market structure continues to respect the series of lower highs and lower lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, below its 50-neutral level and aiming towards oversold territory. Given the reasons mentioned above and geopolitical uncertainty, the XAG/USD’s path of least resistance is downwards.
For a bearish resumption, traders must clear the July 8 daily low of $57.22. Below is the year-to-date (YTD) low of 55.63, set on June 22, as the white metal dropped below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) since mid-June. A breach of those two levels opens the door to a move towards the November 13, 2025, high-turned-support at $54.30.
On the flip side, Silver can shift neutral if buyers reclaim a downslope resistance trendline drawn from around June highs within the $62.25-$62.50 area. Once hurdled, this opens the door to challenge the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, each at $69.94 and $70.31.
XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Spot gold weekly chart shows long-term bull trend structure at risk. Source: TradingView Otherwise, a decline below $3,886 would signal a continuation of the bearish correction and confirm a failure of support at the long-term uptrend line. That line has been in place for over two years, defining dynamic trend support. The other significant long-term trend support indicator, the 200-day moving average, failed as support in early June. That suggests that the trendline is vulnerable to failure as well. A breakdown from this area would therefore represent a significant deterioration in gold’s broader technical outlook.
Lower High Keeps Short-Term Pressure Intact This week produced a new lower swing high for gold at $4,203, which is now a key component of the near-term bearish trend structure. By itself, that is a bearish indication since it suggests a potential continuation of the declining trend. However, since gold has already corrected by around 29.6% from the $5,597 peak and it remains in a potentially significant support zone, signs of strength could lead to a reclaim of the 20-day moving average and a bullish continuation signal above $4,203. Therefore, the next move will likely depend on whether buyers can defend support and reverse the developing sequence of lower highs.
Bullish Confirmation Requires Key Breakout A decisive advance above the three-day high of $4,138 will confirm a higher swing low from Wednesday at $4,021 and a reclaim of the 20-day moving average near $4,129. Further signs of strength should follow leading to a continuation signal above $4,203. That would put gold on track to test higher targets, starting around the 50-day moving average at $4,352. Until then, the key question remains whether current support can hold long enough to allow the recovery scenario outlined at the beginning of this analysis to develop.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats on Friday during the North American session, pressured by US President Donald Trump's comments allowing the resumption of US-Iran talks, but reiterating that the ceasefire is “over.” The XAU/USD pair trades at around $4,103, down 0.48%.
XAU/USD falls as renewed war risks lift yields and DollarThe yellow metal seems poised to end the week down 0.51%, driven by the escalation of the conflict. The Greenback erased its earlier losses, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value against six currencies, holds firm at 100.94, unchanged.
In his Truth Social account, President Trump posted, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue 'talks.' We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
After the post, US Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year T-note up 2 basis points to 4.569%, amid fears that energy prices could rise, fueling fears of higher interest rates if hostilities continued.
Money markets have priced in an 80% chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase at the September meeting. Odds for the July 29 meeting suggest that the central bank will hold rates, with the chances for a hike being shy of 34%, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalThe US economic docket was light this week, with the release of the FOMC's last meeting minutes, which were closely scrutinised for the absence of forward guidance. The minutes showed that officials are concerned about inflation, with a “few participants” seeing the case for a rate hike.
On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below estimates of 218K and the previous reading of 217K, an indication that the labor market is stable.
Now eyes turn to next week's economic docket, with investors eyeing the release of US inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before the US Congress.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains bearish below the 200-day SMAGold’s downtrend remains in play, as the market structure of a successive series of lower highs and lower lows is intact. Alongside this, momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is declining and is now in bearish territory, and XAU’s spot price is below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,493.
With all three of those reasons in play, Bullion prices might continue to edge lower, so any leg-up could be an opportunity for sellers.
XAU/USD first support would be the July 8 swing low of $4,021. Beneath lies the June 30 swing low of $3,941, followed by the October 28, 2025, swing low of $3,886.
Going upwards, if Gold surpasses a downslope resistance trendline near $4,200, it opens the door for challenging the $4,300 milestone. Above this area, the next ceiling level is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,493.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels EUR/USD is holding above a key support zone as with the July opening range carved just above. The broader April downtrend remains vulnerable while above support – risk for price inflection ahead. A break below support would reinforce the bearish outlook while a topside breakout would strengthen the case that a more significant low is in place. U.S. CPI and PPI data next week could provide the catalyst for the next directional move. Resistance 1.1483/92 (key), 1.1576/78, 1.1646/49- Support 1.1355/60 (key), 1.1276, 1.1214 EUR/USD continues to trade within an increasingly compressed range, with both the weekly and monthly opening ranges developing just above a major support zone. The repeated failure to break lower has left the April downtrend vulnerable near-term, while buyers still need a decisive breakout to suggest a more durable low is in place. With key U.S. inflation data due next week, the stage is set for a move that could determine the pair's next directional trend. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD had rebounded nearly 1% off the June low and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1675 IF EUR/USD is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the weekly open needed to threaten another test of the monthly lows.” Euro broke sharply lower later that day with the decline extending more than 2.9% off the June high before rebounding off confluent support into the close of the month. The July opening range has been carved just above, and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead with the April downtrend vulnerable while above this pivotal support zone.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD holding a tight range this week, just below the median line. Key support rests with the yearly low-day close (LDC) and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance at 1.1355/60. A break / daily close below this threshold would mark a break of the monthly opening range and threaten resumption of the May downtrend toward subsequent support objectives at the 2023 high at 1.1275 and the 2024 high at 1.1214- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Resistance is eyed at 1.1483/92- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the April decline and the November low-day close (LDC). Noe that channel resistance extending off the May high (red) converges on this level early next week and a breach / daily close above would be needed to validate a breakout of the July opening range and a suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the May / January lows at 1.1576/78 and the 200-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the April decline at 1.1646/49.
Bottom line: The weekly opening range is preserved within the broader monthly opening range, just above support. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1492 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.
The focus next week shifts to the release of June U.S. inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. Following Chair Warsh's renewed commitment to restoring inflation to the Fed's 2% target, the reports will be closely watched for clues on the future path of U.S. monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce expectations for additional Fed tightening, supporting Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar while increasing downside risks for EUR/USD. Conversely, softer inflation data could temper expectations for further policy tightening, weighing on the greenback and providing scope for a broader recovery in the euro. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Euro Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.
Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Stalls at 2024 High as Intervention Risk Builds US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Targets Next Major Resistance British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Rebound Challenges Bear Trend --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Overall, both inflation indicators remain above the official Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target of 2.0%. This uncomfortable reality has forced market participants to reconsider their monetary policy expectations. Many concluded that interest rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future and even started to factor in the possibility of further monetary tightening. As a result, gold (XAUUSD) dropped sharply on the day the May inflation report came out, dropping by 3.57% and touching a critical 4,100 mark.
Gold Reaction It seems counterintuitive that gold would sell off in the face of climbing inflation. After all, gold is supposed to act as an inflation hedge, is it not? The reality is more complicated. While the narrative that gold is an inflation hedge is valid, it is true only in the long term. In the short term, gold behaves more like a currency proxy and a zero-coupon bond.
Here’s a quick schematic explanation.
High inflation (hot CPI) ➡️ Hawkish Fed (tighter monetary policy/higher interest rates)️ ➡️ Capital flows into USD ➡️️ Stronger Dollar ➡️️ Less affordable gold + higher opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals ➡️ Gold is sold and price drops
The immediate reaction of a hot CPI print is that investors begin to expect higher interest rates. Therefore, the yields on U.S. government bonds (which, incidentally, compete with gold for safe-haven capital) rise. When nominal yields rise above near-term inflation expectations, real yields turn positive.
Subsequently, when a trader can get a virtually guaranteed, low-free real return in the U.S. debt market, holding a non-yielding asset like physical gold becomes costly and unwise. In other words, the opportunity cost of holding gold goes up. Thus, capital shifts out of metals markets and into bond markets. Additionally, hawkish repricing of the Fed usually pushes the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) up—in other words, the greenback appreciates vis-à-vis other currencies. A stronger dollar automatically makes bullion less affordable for holders of other currencies, exerting downward pressure on gold and compounding the sell-off.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm on Friday during the North American session as risk appetite deteriorated after US President Donald Trump posted on social media that the ceasefire with Iran is over, even though negotiations continue. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3406, unchanged, after reaching an almost one-month high of 1.3451 earlier in the day. Read More...
British Pound surrenders early gains as US Dollar regains groundThe British Pound (GBP) gives back its early gains and turns almost flat around 1.3410 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair falls back as the US Dollar regains ground amid fears that the restart of the war between the United States (US) and Iran would last long. Read More...
British Pound gains traction above 1.3400 as markets bet on BoE rate hikesThe GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3430 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on the UK government leadership transition and growing expectations of further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes. Read More...
AUD/USD advances toward the 0.6960 area on Friday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) and renewed strength in the Chinese Yuan (CNY). The pair continues to recover on the four-hour chart, although escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are limiting broader risk appetite.
US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Iran had requested further negotiations and that Washington had agreed to continue talks. However, Trump warned that the ceasefire was “over,” raising concerns that hostilities could intensify despite diplomatic channels remaining open.
Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan strengthened to a one-week high against the US Dollar, offering additional support to the Australian Dollar given Australia’s close trade ties with China. The move followed a stronger fixing from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which set the USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7989, below the key 6.8000 level.
The latest price action also points to improving momentum in AUD/USD. The pair is trading above its short and medium-term moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in positive territory without signaling overbought conditions.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a restrictive policy stance, supporting the USD and limiting further gains in AUD/USD. Softer inflation, by contrast, could weigh on the Greenback and help the pair extend its advance.
In Australia, attention will turn to Consumer Inflation Expectations. The report will offer fresh insight into how households expect prices to develop over the coming year and could influence expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6956, retaining a mildly bullish tone as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6938 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6934. The clustering of short and medium-term SMAs beneath price suggests a supportive backdrop, while the RSI around 58 indicates constructive but not overextended bullish momentum, leaving room for further upside provided immediate overhead barriers are challenged.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 0.6958, ahead of a tighter cap at 0.6961, with a more notable barrier emerging at 0.6970, where buying pressure could start to fade if momentum cools. On the downside, first support is seen at 0.6949, followed by the 20-period SMA at 0.6938 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6934, where a break back below these levels would undermine the current constructive bias and hint at a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD remains on the front foot on Friday and is heading for a second consecutive weekly gain after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday and signaled that further policy tightening may be needed, boosting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.5771 after hitting an intraday high of 0.5794, its highest level since June 18.
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has been recovering after bottoming at 0.5626 in late June, its lowest level since November 2025. The latest leg higher pushed NZD/USD above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5717, reinforcing the bullish near-term outlook.
Momentum has also improved, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above the neutral 50 threshold after recovering from near-oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting bearish momentum is fading rather than confirming a sustained bullish reversal, as NZD/USD continues to trade below a cluster of key moving averages.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the psychological 0.5800 mark, closely aligning with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5815, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.5820 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5838.
A decisive break above these levels could pave the way for a move toward the horizontal resistance levels at 0.5900 and 0.6000.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the 21-day SMA at 0.5718. A move back below this level would weaken the near-term bullish bias and bring the late-June low of 0.5626 back into focus.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.09%-0.66%-0.24%-0.26%-0.30%-0.06%EUR0.06%-0.03%-0.55%-0.18%-0.21%-0.25%0.00%GBP0.09%0.03%-0.54%-0.15%-0.18%-0.21%0.02%JPY0.66%0.55%0.54%0.41%0.39%0.32%0.57%CAD0.24%0.18%0.15%-0.41%-0.03%-0.07%0.17%AUD0.26%0.21%0.18%-0.39%0.03%-0.05%0.17%NZD0.30%0.25%0.21%-0.32%0.07%0.05%0.23%CHF0.06%-0.01%-0.02%-0.57%-0.17%-0.17%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Silver (XAG/USD) trades slightly lower on Friday, hovering around $59.90 at the time of writing, down a modest 0.08% on the day. The white metal is struggling to extend its rebound as renewed tensions in the Middle East fuel concerns about persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates.
The resumption of hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran has revived concerns over energy supplies, lifting Oil prices and strengthening expectations of persistent inflation. This backdrop keeps expectations for monetary tightening alive and weighs on non-yielding assets such as Silver.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a high chance of at least one interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook is also supporting the US Dollar (USD), whose rebound is limiting the appeal of USD-denominated precious metals.
Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor the latest diplomatic developments between Washington and Tehran. Media reports indicate that technical talks are continuing despite the military clashes, raising hopes of a de-escalation that could ease tensions in energy markets.
Attention now turns to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. The inflation report could shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path and provide the next major catalyst for Silver prices.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
GBP/USD 100726 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving higher as traders bet that the situation in the Middle East will calm down. In absence of economic reports, geopolitical developments serve as the key catalyst for GBP/USD. In case U.S. and Iran restart negotiations and do not attack each other, demand for risk assets will increase, providing additional support to the British pound.
The nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3450 – 1.3465 range. If GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3465 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.3535 – 1.3550 range.
On the support side, GBP/USD needs to settle below the 1.3400 level to have a chance to gain downside momentum in the near term. A move below 1.3400 will push GBP/USD towards the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350.
If we break down below the $3,900 level, it’s very likely that we go looking to the $3,500 level, an area that I think would be very important based on previous resistance and an ascending triangle that formed there. To the upside, if we can break above the 50-week EMA right around the $4,250 level, then it could be a sensible place to assume that there’s a recovery in the gold market.
US Dollar and Higher Bond Yields Create Structural Obstacles The biggest problem that gold has, of course, is interest rates in the United States and the stronger US dollar. As long as the US dollar remains somewhat strong against the backdrop of other currencies around the world and in the backdrop of higher-than-usual rates, it’s difficult to imagine that gold takes off.
I think that a lot of what’s going on is the noise around the Middle East has people concerned about inflation, and that inflation has people driving rates higher, which means that larger money can get a return with a bond instead of going into non-yielding assets like gold. It’s just basic portfolio construction, I think, that is a big problem for gold at the moment.
Fundamental Pressures and Technical Boundaries If we get over the 50-week EMA at $64.20, then maybe we have a little bit of a move to the upside, maybe $70 waiting to happen, but as things stand right now from a fundamental standpoint, it makes no sense to put money in a non-yielding asset if you can get elevated rates out of a bond, for example. It’s a risk-free trade or as close to risk-free as it gets.
That being said, in the longer term, I do think that the demand for silver will be part of the story again, but we have to get past the inflation concerns. After all, rates are rising because of inflation, and although some people would expect that to drive the price of silver up, it’s a different type of inflation. It’s not a massive demand; it’s a supply-side problem, not in silver as much as everything. We’re still worried about that stagflation-type issue.
British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels GBP/USD has nearly erased the latest decline after rebounding sharply from key support at the yearly low. The recovery is once again approaching the same resistance zone that rejected Sterling last month - the near-term advance remains vulnerable while below. A sustained breakout would invalidate the recent downtrend and strengthen the case for a larger trend reversal while failure would keep the broader range intact. U.S. inflation data next week could provide the catalyst for the next major move in Sterling. Resistance 1.3460/74 (key), 1.3591, 1.3648/85- Support 1.3326, 1.3194/99 (key), 1.3092 The battle for control of GBP/USD is shifting back to a familiar battleground. After recovering sharply from support at the yearly lows, Sterling is once again confronting the yearly open and a major Fibonacci resistance zone that rejected price just weeks ago. The coming sessions should help determine whether buyers can finally force a meaningful breakout or if this latest recovery proves to be another counter-trend rally within the broader range. With U.S. inflation data looming next week, the macro backdrop may provide the catalyst for the next major move. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that the Sterling recovery had stretched into pivotal resistance at the 2026 yearly open, “and marks the first test for the bulls.” GBP/USD reversed sharply off resistance later that week with the decline extending more than 2.5% off the June highs. Price rebounded into the close of the month off lateral support at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance with a two-week rally nearly erasing the entire decline. Sterling is once again trading into pivotal resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the May decline and the objective yearly open at 1.3460/73. The focus is on possible inflection off this threshold with the multi-week advance vulnerable while below.
Initial weekly support rests with the May low close at 1.3326 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement and the 2026 low-week close (LWC) at 1.3194/99. Note that a break / weekly close below this threshold would constitute a breakout of the yearly opening range and threaten the next major leg of the decline. Subsequent support rests with the 2026 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3092.
A breach / weekly close above this key pivot zone would invalidate the May downtrend and fuel a larger recovery within the yearly range. The next technical considerations beyond this level are eyed with the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 1.3591 and the 2025 & 2026 high week closes (HWC) at 1.3648/84- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: The Sterling rally is now approaching pivotal Fibonacci resistance into the yearly open- risk for price inflection into this zone in the weeks ahead. Watch the weekly close today with respect to the 52-week moving average (currently ~1.3406) for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 1.3326-1.3474 range for guidance with the near-term long-bias vulnerable below the yearly open.
The UK economic docket is rather light over the next few days with the U.S. June CPI & PPI data highlighting event risk next week. Stay nimble into the releases and respect the weekly close. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
GBP/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
GBP/JPY trades under pressure on Friday after comments from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama boosted the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 217.10, down 0.30% on the day.
Katayama said the government would encourage domestic pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to increase their holdings of Japanese financial assets.
However, the remarks did little to reverse the Yen's broad-based weakness, leaving GBP/JPY pinned near levels last seen in 2008 and on track for a third consecutive weekly gain.
Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) remains the strongest-performing G10 currency in recent weeks, supported by Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets and easing political uncertainty in the United Kingdom.
From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY maintains a bullish bias on the daily chart, holding above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), reinforcing the broader uptrend.
The cross also remains above the horizontal support at 216.50, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62.54, remaining in bullish territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in positive territory at 0.33, suggesting upside momentum remains constructive.
On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 218.00 horizontal barrier. A sustained break above this level could pave the way for an extension of the broader uptrend.
Initial support is seen at 216.50, followed by the 50-day SMA at 214.31 and the 100-day SMA at 213.51. The 200-day SMA at 210.57 provides the next major support if a deeper corrective pullback unfolds.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%-0.07%-0.36%-0.15%-0.09%-0.20%0.05%EUR-0.03%-0.11%-0.39%-0.18%-0.13%-0.26%0.02%GBP0.07%0.11%-0.28%-0.07%-0.03%-0.15%0.11%JPY0.36%0.39%0.28%0.21%0.27%0.11%0.39%CAD0.15%0.18%0.07%-0.21%0.05%-0.09%0.18%AUD0.09%0.13%0.03%-0.27%-0.05%-0.13%0.11%NZD0.20%0.26%0.15%-0.11%0.09%0.13%0.26%CHF-0.05%-0.02%-0.11%-0.39%-0.18%-0.11%-0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
That being said, in the longer term, I do like silver in the sense that there is a major lack of supply for the demand that is still out there. As long as interest rates and inflation concerns are still out there, people jumping in and taking advantage of those higher yields in the bond market, a non-yielding asset like silver is going to struggle. This is especially true with the US dollar strengthening, but when you look at silver against other currencies, it is doing better, which makes a certain amount of sense.
So ultimately, I think we just bounce around here, pay attention to $57. If we break down through there, then it is likely that we really start to sell off. Rallies I do not trust, but if we were to break above the 200-day EMA, then obviously something will have changed, as we can reevaluate the market itself.
Gold is treading water above 4,000 support, with its moving averages capping the upside. Source: TradingView The gold market has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Friday, and what I find interesting is that every time we rally, there is a little bit of hesitation. Furthermore, we have the 50-day EMA breaking down below the 200-day EMA, which opens up the possibility of the so-called Death Cross kicking off, and longer-term traders will possibly be paying attention to it.
Key Technical Overhead and Dollar Strength Cap Upside Potential The $4,000 level underneath is significant support, and I do think that a lot of people will watch that. If we were to break down below the $4,000 level, I think once you get below $3,900, then you start to see a significant drop, perhaps down to the $3,500 level. This is a market are that I think a lot of value hunters will be willing to take advantage of.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surrenders its early gains and slides 0.73% to near $59.50 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal turns negative amid fears that the next monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be on the upside.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year is almost 80%.
Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Hawkish Fed prospects remain firm amid fears of a prolonged United States (US)-Iran war, a scenario that will keep the energy supply disrupted. According to the Iranian state media, the US forces struck several more locations in coastal Iran.
The longer the aggression between the US and Iran continues, the more likely it is that oil prices will remain higher.
In the last few months, the Silver price underperformed as higher oil prices de-anchored global inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, a sharp recovery in the US Dollar is also hurting the Silver price. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 100.87. The DXY recovered after revisiting the three-week low of 100.60.
Going forward, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes EUR/USD has rebounded after forming an interim low near 1.1325 and moved back into its prior range, signalling limited follow-through on the earlier breakdown. The bank stresses that resistance at 1.1475/1.1500 must be cleared to extend the bounce, while a drop below 1.1390 would risk resuming the broader downtrend.
Bounce capped by 1.1500 barrier"EUR/USD has staged a modest rebound after carving out an interim low around 1.1325. The pair has re-integrated within previous range, indicating a lack of follow-through after the recent breakdown."
"However, clear signals of a large up move are not yet visible. The recent pivot high at 1.1475/1.1500 is the first layer of resistance. Overcoming this will be crucial for signalling an extension of the bounce."
"Conversely, there could be a risk of a continuation of the downtrend if the pair breaches the recent pivot low at 1.1390."
"Euro bid for second day as dust settles around oil prices. Support 1.1390, resistance 1.1500. Massive option expiries at 1.1370-85 (€1.3bn), 1.1400-50 (€6.5bn). US CPI, PPI, Warsh semi-annual testimony next week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Friday, struggling to build on the previous day's gains and heading for a weekly loss as renewed hostilities in the Middle East have revived fears of energy-driven inflation and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,098, down 0.60% on the day.
The metal, however, lacks follow-through selling as traders reassess US-Iran tensions following reports that technical talks are continuing despite the military clashes, prompting a pullback in crude Oil prices.
Can Gold stage a sustained recovery?While Gold has staged a modest rebound from $3,941, its lowest level since November 2025, the metal is struggling to attract meaningful buying interest.
Since the US-Iran war broke out in February, Gold has behaved less like a traditional safe-haven asset and more like a rate-sensitive instrument, with price action largely driven by the hawkish repricing of Fed interest rates.
As a result, Gold posted its worst quarterly performance in thirteen years, while traders also booked profits following an exceptional two-year rally that pushed prices to a record high near $5,600 in January.
The near-term outlook is still tilted to the downside. The situation in the Middle East remains fragile, keeping the risk of energy-driven inflation at the forefront.
Even if geopolitical tensions ease and lower crude Oil prices help reduce inflation concerns, the Fed is expected to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance as policymakers continue to signal the central bank's commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target.
Gold is therefore unlikely to stage a sustained recovery as expectations for a Fed interest rate hike later this year continue to support the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 58% chance of a rate increase at the September meeting. Attention now turns to next week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due on Tuesday, which could shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path in the coming months.
On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains within a downward channel and is holding below the 50-day, 200-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which collectively cap the upside and reinforce a bearish bias.
Momentum is subdued, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 hovering below the neutral 50 line, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 37 points to a still-firm trend, suggesting that selling pressure remains dominant as Gold struggles to reclaim broken levels.
On the upside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier near $4,200, ahead of the 50-day SMA around $4,352. A stronger resistance zone lies around the 200-day SMA at $4,493, with the upper boundary of the descending channel near the 100-day SMA at $4,593 likely to cap any recovery attempts.
On the downside, the next notable support sits at the horizontal level around $3,950, and a clear break below this floor would open the door to a deeper slide within the prevailing bearish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The USD/CAD crosses below the critical level of 1.4200, heading towards 1.4164 on a three-day consecutive basis due to the declining US dollar The drop in interest rates expectations and a geopolitical surge in the price of crude oil contribute to the Canadian dollar’s gains. The lingering concerns over divergent inflation trends and the delayed renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement pose substantial counterparty risks in the long run For much of the past week, USD/CAD had been stuck around the 1.4200 level, unable to decide on a direction. But that indecision’s now broken to the downside. The pair has spent three straight sessions, including today’s intraday trade, below that mark, dropping from the 1.4210-1.4220 area into the 1.4130s.
Anyone tracking the loonie has to wonder if this marks a true trend change, or just a pause in the dollar’s longer uptrend.
Shifting Central Bank Math and the Energy Boost The USD/CAD pair had been trading in a relatively narrow range near 1.4200, reflecting a period where US dollar and Canadian loonie forces were balanced. Breaking below this mark is a technical move that might signal shifting momentum. Such moves often grab the attention of traders who watch key psychological levels. They can influence price action and where traders place their bets.
On one side, the US dollar has been weakening significantly this week. It kept falling even when US jobless claims came in better than expected, because people were paying more attention to the overall mood rather than just one piece of data.
Meanwhile, in Canada, the swap markets have quietly adjusted, now putting the chances of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates this year at about 60%, up from around 40% just a few days ago. This change is helping the Canadian dollar gain strength. Earlier this summer, market players were strongly expecting the US Federal Reserve to raise rates multiple times, especially with a new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh.
However, pricing for a cumulative Fed rate increase by December has dropped notably. It’s now around 26 basis points, down from the 38 basis points expected just last week. This cooling trend was reinforced by the latest Fed minutes. They showed that while inflation concerns remain, the broader enthusiasm for immediate, consecutive hikes has started to recede.
At the same time, the Canadian dollar, which is closely tied to commodities, is getting a significant boost from the global energy sector. New geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with recent military clashes near important global shipping routes, have driven up international crude oil prices. Since Canada is a major exporter of crude oil, higher energy prices naturally benefit the Canadian dollar.
Navigating the 1.4100 Support Zone With the USD/CAD pair breaking its multi-week trading range, currency allocators and macro investors should rethink their short-term positioning. Chasing this downward breakout with aggressive, large-scale short USD positions at current levels carries notable risks. The pair is quickly nearing its next major technical support zone around 1.4100.
There are also trade policy issues to keep an eye on. The failure to immediately renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) after its July deadline creates long-term structural uncertainty. Any strong protectionist talk or threats of tariffs from Washington would immediately dampen business confidence and slow down the Canadian dollar’s gains.
Why did the USD/CAD pair break below 1.4200?
Shifting momentum from US dollar dynamics, commodity influences, and policy expectations favoured the Canadian dollar recently.
How significant is this technical breakdown?
It signals potential bearish momentum for the pair, though sustainability depends on confirmation from economic data and volume.
How should forex traders reposition?
They should consider favouring CAD strength with defined risk levels, while monitoring resistance for possible reversals.
Gold (XAU/USD) nurses minor losses with price action contained within Thursday’s trading range, around the $4,100 level, set for 1.6% weekly depreciation. Precious metals struggled this week as the resumption of hostilities in Iran boosted Oil prices, pressuring central banks to hike interest rates.
Markets are looking for direction on Friday amid a tense calm, and rumours that mediators are working to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table. Axios cited a US official affirming on Friday that the US is still committed to finding a resolution and that technical talks to reach a nuclear deal continue.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of six peers, has bounced from levels near three-week highs amid a cautious market mood, and is drawing closer to the 101.00 level, which keeps Gold upside attempts limited.
Technical Analysis: Hints of a reversal within the broader bearish trend
XAU/USD trades at $4,110, holding just below the trendline resistance from early March lows, although the higher low seen earlier this week suggests that bears might be losing momentum. Indicators in the daily chart are also showing a weakening bearish momentum, yet with no clear sign of a trend shift on the horizon so far.
The Relative Strength Index (14) has picked up towards neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive with its latest reading at 19.09, hinting at improving momentum.
Price action, however, needs to overcome structural resistance first at the mentioned trendline, now around $4,175, and then at the July 6 just above $4,200 and June 17 highs in the area of $4,380. On the downside, the precious metal has a cluster of supports between Thursday's low in the $4,020 area and the late October 2025 lows near $3,885.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has edged higher to around 1.1450, extending its recovery from this week's lows as the US Dollar softened modestly.
UOB believes the Euro retains a mild upside bias in the near term, although it expects gains to be capped around the 1.1450 level.
The bank notes that upward momentum has improved slightly after EUR/USD rebounded from 1.1390 earlier this week.
According to UOB, "EUR may retest 1.1450", but it cautions that "a continued rise above this level is unlikely."
Looking beyond the next 24 hours, UOB believes the pair has returned to a range-trading phase after failing to generate stronger bullish momentum.
The bank expects EUR/USD to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450 over the coming one to three weeks, adding that even a break above resistance would probably lead to a broader trading range rather than a sustained rally.
UOB continues to monitor the 1.1390-1.1410 support zone closely. The bank maintains that if this area eventually gives way, the next medium-term downside target remains 1.1210.
USD/JPY fell to 161.67 on Friday, with the yen fully recovering its losses from the beginning of the week. Market participants are once again increasing expectations of possible intervention by Japanese authorities, following the national currency’s recent move to nearly 40-year lows.
Investors are also awaiting the release of official intervention data later this month to determine whether the Bank of Japan’s actions were behind the yen’s sharp – though brief – gains in recent weeks.
Fresh macroeconomic data has attracted additional attention. Japan’s producer prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, marking the fastest pace since March 2023. Cost pressures remain elevated due to the Middle East conflict and the significant weakening of the yen.
At the same time, the Japanese currency found support from lower oil prices following reports that the US and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations despite the recent escalation. The decline in oil prices prompted a retreat in both the dollar and US Treasury yields, while also easing concerns about rising import costs for Japan, which remains one of the largest buyers of Middle Eastern oil.
Technical Analysis On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 161.57 level, currently extending up to 162.62. A decline towards 161.30 is expected today, followed by a rebound to 162.62, with scope for the trend to extend to 164.15. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 161.20, with a possible extension to 161.16. A move higher towards 162.62 is expected. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation towards 164.15. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 20 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating increasing short-term upside momentum.
Conclusion The yen has fully recovered its losses from the start of the week, supported by renewed expectations of potential Japanese intervention and lower oil prices following signs of US–Iran peace negotiations. Producer prices in Japan rose at their fastest pace since March 2023, reflecting persistent cost pressures from the Middle East conflict and currency weakness. However, falling oil prices eased concerns over Japan’s energy import costs and contributed to a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields. Technically, USD/JPY may see further downside towards 161.30 in the near term, but the broader uptrend remains intact, with potential for a rebound towards 162.62 and beyond. The market’s focus now turns to official intervention data for confirmation of recent central bank activity.
RoboForex Ltdhttps://www.roboforex.com/
RoboForex Ltd is a reputable financial brokerage company that has been operating since 2009. It provides reliable access to the largest financial markets with competitive conditions.
Oil is back in the driver’s seat, and both the pound and the aussie are feeling its grip. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in June, but with UK inflation at 2.8% and crude oil climbing on renewed Middle East tensions, markets now lean towards a hike before year-end. Down under, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.35% after three straight increases, with core inflation stuck at 3.6%, keeping the door open for further tightening. Two hawkish central banks, one shared inflationary culprit—yet it’s the existing 60-basis-point rate gap in Australia’s favour that is giving GBP/AUD its current shape, with the pair holding firm near the 1.93 handle as traders watch which bank blinks first.
Technical Outlook
GBP/AUD pits two currencies backed by hawkish central banks against each other. After a sharp downtrend, the pair found a floor in May 2026 and has since reversed into a medium-term uptrend as sterling claws back ground against the aussie. Price is now testing a key resistance zone that has previously capped upside attempts, making the coming sessions pivotal.
Bullish Scenario
Several sessions of strong bullish momentum have kept sterling supported. The pair is testing a crucial resistance zone at 1.9350–1.9400, which has rejected price before.
A confirmed break above could open the path towards the next resistance at 1.9520–1.9550.
Such a breakout would likely require fundamental support, such as further escalation in the Middle East or an even more hawkish BoE.
Bearish Scenario
Price could reject the resistance zone once again, reinforcing it as a key barrier.
A bearish RSI divergence on the 4H chart adds weight to this scenario, with price posting higher highs while the RSI prints lower highs—a sign of fading momentum.
The ascending trendline is now the nearest relevant support; a break below could expose the intermediate zone at 1.9080–1.9120, where price may pause and consolidate.
Should tensions ease or fresh UK political developments emerge, sterling could lose ground, breaking below this zone to test the next support at 1.8780–1.8820.
Ultimately, GBP/AUD’s next move will hinge on geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, alongside these key technical levels. Which of the two currencies will show greater strength in the sessions ahead?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOpenhttps://www.fxopen.com/
FXOpen is a global Forex and CFD Broker, founded in 2005 by a group of traders. With over 16 years of experience, the company has gained an excellent reputation a major brokerage that continues to expand rapidly. The broker offers a choice of platforms, including the popular MT4 and MT5 platforms, with a wide range of trading instruments with spreads from 0.0 pips: 600+ FX, index, share, commodity and cryptocurrency CFDs. FXOpen also provides its own PAMM technology, allowing clients to benefit from the strategies of experienced traders with a proven track record of successful trading and guarantees automatic distribution of profit and loss between the strategy provider and the strategy followers. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money. PAMM is only available in certain jurisdictions. Cryptocurrency CFDs are not available to Retail clients at FXOpen UK.
OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight that Gold has rebounded as Oil prices eased, reducing inflation and Fed tightening concerns, while a softer US Dollar also supported the move. However, ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, suggesting the recovery is more relief-driven than a decisive return of investor demand. Near term, Gold could trade with a better tone if Oil and yields stay contained.
Relief-driven recovery in Gold"Gold. Tentative stabilisation on oil relief. Gold rebounded as oil prices eased from their recent spike, taking some pressure off inflation expectations, yields and Fed tightening concerns. A softer USD also helped the recovery, after the recent selloff across the precious metals complex."
"But ETF flows have yet to confirm a broader investor rebuild. Bloomberg data show total known gold ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, even though holdings have stabilised slightly in recent days. This suggests the move is still mainly about relief from oil and yield pressures, rather than a decisive return of investor demand."
"That said, the structural support remains intact. Central banks continue to add to gold reserves, with Poland standing out as a notable buyer this year. Governor Glapinski said that Poland has bought 82t of gold this year and now holds 632.4t."
"The target is to accumulate 700t of gold. Near term, gold can trade with a better tone if oil stays contained and yields remain capped, but stronger follow-through likely requires softer US data or a further easing in Fed tightening concerns. Gold last seen at 4125 levels."
"Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Risks skewed to the upside for now. Resistance at 4140 (21 DMA), 4200 levels. Support at 4021 (week’s low), 3943 (year’s low)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that European Central Bank (ECB) minutes added little new information but confirmed openness to another rate hike, consistent with MUFG’s call for a 25bp move in September. Despite the Euro being July’s weakest G10 currency, a turning 2-year yield spread and potential US yield declines could support renewed EUR/USD upside in coming weeks.
ECB stance and yields guide Euro outlook"The ECB will be certainly less concerned over longer-term inflation expectations becoming un-anchored with the 5y5y inflation swap rate having declined since the initial ceasefire was agreed."
"If crude oil and/or natural gas prices were to rebound sharply then risks will rise of course but at this point longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored."
"In that context we see continued risks of the ECB acting again consistent with our current forecast of another 25bp hike in September."
"The euro is currently the worst performing G10 currency in July but the 2-year yield spread has started to turn in favour of some moderate EUR/USD recovery."
"We continue to see risks of US yields turning lower that should reinforce renewed upward momentum for EUR/USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.47 per troy ounce, down 0.86% from the $59.98 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 16.34% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.90 on Friday, up from 68.75 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The US Dollar (USD) holds losses below 161.75 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday following a 100-pip reversal earlier on the day. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama announced a plan to boost pension funds’ investment in domestic assets, which sent the Yen surging across the board during the Asian trading session.
Katayama said on Friday that the government wants the giant Japanese pension funds, which manage more than USD 1.8 trillion in assets, to redirect their investment into the domestic market. The market has seen this plan as more effective than interventions to support the Yen, and the immediate reaction was a strong JPY recovery.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains moderately soft, amid rumours that Qatar and Pakistan are working to bring US and Iran back to the negotiating table. Beyond that, the release of the minutes of June’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, released on Wednesday, showed a split committee on interest rates, which cast doubt over the timing of the next hike, and added pressure on the USD.
Technical Analysis: Dollar bears are gaining momentum
USD/JPY trades at 161.70, with bulls capped below a previous support area at 161.75 so far. The loss of momentum is evident following Friday's reversal, with the four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) slipping toward the low-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turning slightly negative.
Downside attempts, so far, have been contained near 161.30, which keeps the key 160.50 support area (July 2 low) out of sight for now. On the topside, bulls would need to breach the mentioned resistance area around 161.75 and Thursday's lows at 162.30 to look at the 40-year high, at 162.84, again.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.02%-0.03%-0.47%-0.00%-0.02%-0.18%-0.07%EUR0.02%-0.01%-0.46%0.02%-0.02%-0.17%-0.05%GBP0.03%0.01%-0.46%0.03%-0.01%-0.16%-0.05%JPY0.47%0.46%0.46%0.48%0.46%0.27%0.39%CAD0.00%-0.02%-0.03%-0.48%-0.03%-0.19%-0.08%AUD0.02%0.02%0.01%-0.46%0.03%-0.16%-0.07%NZD0.18%0.17%0.16%-0.27%0.19%0.16%0.10%CHF0.07%0.05%0.05%-0.39%0.08%0.07%-0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has edged lower towards 1.4160 this week as the Canadian Dollar modestly outperformed most of its major peers.
Scotiabank believes the outlook for the Canadian Dollar is beginning to improve as interest-rate spreads stabilise and economic data become less negative.
The bank notes that recent Canadian data have consistently come in slightly ahead of expectations, helping narrow the gap between US and Canadian economic surprises.
According to Scotiabank, "a lot of bad news is already factored into the CAD at current pricing", leaving "little or no room for additional losses."
The bank also points to softer demand for US Dollar upside protection, suggesting investor sentiment has become less bearish towards the Canadian Dollar.
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank believes USD/CAD remains in a consolidation phase. While the US Dollar is still heavily overbought, the bank expects the 1.4250-1.4300 region to provide firm resistance.
A break below 1.4150 would strengthen the case for a deeper pullback towards the important 1.4075-1.4080 support zone.
Scotiabank believes stabilising interest-rate differentials and improving domestic data should provide a firmer foundation for the Canadian Dollar after a difficult first half of the year.
The USD/CAD pair stages a modest intraday recovery from the 1.4135 area, or a three-week low touched this Friday, and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the early European session. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.4160 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders now look forward to Canadian monthly employment details for a fresh impetus.
In the meantime, a weaker tone around Crude Oil prices undermines the commodity-linked Loonie. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, bounces off over a one-week low amid prospects of at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 and concerns about a fresh escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This, in turn, assists the USD/CAD pair in attracting some buyers at lower levels.
From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, an intraday break below the lower boundary of a three-week-old trading range, near the 1.4150 area, could be seen as a key trigger for the USD/CAD pair. However, the lack of follow-through warrants caution before positioning for further losses.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 line near 43. Momentum indicators together hint at subdued upside momentum and leaving the path of least resistance tilted to the downside. Hence, any further recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and is more likely to fizzle out rather quickly.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 100-period SMA around 1.4190. A clear break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and allow a recovery toward the trading range resistance, near mid-1.4200s, or the highest level since April 2025, touched last month. On the downside, 1.4100 now could act as an immediate support ahead of 1.4025 and the 1.4000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate, released by Statistics Canada, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force as a percentage. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market and a weakening of the Canadian economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Let’s dial it back a notch and talk about the trend. The trend is down according to my swing chart and the moving averages so traders are still in “sell the rally” mode. The last completed swing down was $71.56 to $55.60. The rally to $63.28 stopped just short of its 50% level at $63.58. Three days of selling pressure this week turned $63.28 into a new swing top.
The last completed swing up is $55.60 to $63.28. Its retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53 is currently being tested. This is our battle ground. Aggressive counter-trend traders may be trying to establish a secondary higher bottom inside this zone. They aren’t trying to pick a bottom. They are trying to establish a new long position because they have a lean or an exit under $55.60, in case they are wrong. At the same time, aggressive trend traders are trying to overcome the buyers and push the market lower in an effort to continue the downtrend under the swing bottom at $55.60.
Our entire focus on Friday will be on the price action and order flow around $59.44 to $58.53. It is going to tell us if the buyers or sellers are winning the battle. If the buyers come out ahead then look for new money and shorts to push the market higher through 50% of the all-time high at $60.83, and eventually the swing top at $63.28 and the 50% level at $63.58. If successful, this could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the 50-day MA at $69.95 and the 200-day MA at $70.19.
The bullish scenario will likely fail if sellers regain control and drive the market through $57.22. In this case, momentum will increase to the downside and $55.60 will hit the radar.
The key is the volume. Trend traders don’t really need big volume to continue the move, but counter-trend buyers do.
What to Watch The July 28-29 FOMC meeting is still three weeks away and the market has already priced in a hold. The real fight is September and next week’s CPI is going to tell traders whether the hike probability is justified or overcooked. Treasury yields and the dollar are not coming down unless the inflation data give the committee a reason to stand pat. The rate trade is running silver right now and the bulls are waiting for a catalyst that has not shown up.
The retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53 is the battleground. A higher bottom inside that zone keeps the door open to the all-time 50% level at $60.83 and eventually the swing top at $63.28. Losing $57.22 breaks the structure and puts $55.60 back in play.
The euro has also been struggling to navigate mixed economic activity throughout the Eurozone, and in addition, the ECB is trying to achieve price stability. As countries continue to have varying fiscal positions and inflation rates, they are impacting the way that monetary policy affects each country differently. For the euro, that translates into being vulnerable to data releases on economic activity and wage increases.
Sterling faces the same challenge of balancing between the Bank of England’s concerns over services inflation and the economy’s slowing pace. In the UK, there continues to be domestic fiscal policy and labor markets that will remain important factors in the pound’s performance. On top of that, policy decisions of the other two central banks will impact the currency pair prices.
These currencies’ fundamentals reflect that their divergence is going to remain intact for some time to come. Inflation levels, fiscal policy choices, and economic growth vary from country to country in terms of pace and resilience. As a result, two-way risks remain prevalent in these currencies and will persist. These countries’ differences will play out in the currencies’ trade balances and capital movements, in addition to the central banks’ capabilities to stabilize growth.
USDJPY (The yen) bounced against the dollar after finding resistance at the 162.75 level.
• The latest move above 162.50 has prompted some buyers to cover and could pave the way for a bearish continuation.
• A move below 162.00 would confirm the downward skew and attract more bears in the hope of a further extension.
• 161.60 is the next target lower, which could again test the firm double bottom at 160.80.
NZDUSD propels higher
The New Zealand dollar kept its composure after jumping over 100 pips in yesterday’s session.
• The pair moved higher as the recent greenback sell-off signalled an ongoing rhetoric that the Fed will cut rates soon.
• 0.5700 is the closest support to see if there is any renewed interest in the greenback.
• On the flip side, a break above 0.5780 would give the Kiwi an extension, for a charge towards the recent peak at 0.5860.
US30 finds support
The Dow remains buoyant as prices attempt to recover as many losses as possible.
• Since a confirmation bounce around 52200, a slight increase in value followed by stiff consolidation has seen a top at 52600.
• A move past the said price will provide the next bullish signal as buyers hope for a test back towards 53000.
• On the downside, 52200 is firm support, and 52000 is the bulls’ second layer of defence.
Trading the forex market requires extensive research, and that’s what we do best
OPEN LIVE ACCOUNT
Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
Gold – Chart Gold Spot is $4,114 on the 4h chart. Gold is trading above support at the triple bottom of 3,959, as mixed red and green candles broke out through the symmetrical triangle resistance trend line near 4,091. The candle formation shows buyers are stepping in at key support. RSI was near 51, which signals a neutral market. Volume profile shows that most trades have been near 4,000 to 4,091, which forms a base for buyers. Support now is near 4,115 on EMA 50.
The trend remains neutral-to-bullish as Gold holds at key support. Support from Fibonacci confluence areas should provide stability to the precious metals for now as the 4h candlestick formation prints out higher lows.
Trade Idea: Buy gold at 4,114; stop 4,091, target 4,140.
ING’s Francesco Pesole writes that Middle East tensions have modestly re-tightened EUR/USD short-term swap rate differentials by around 10bp, though the spread remains wider than pre-war levels. While this supports expectations for a potential September European Central Bank (ECB) hike, Pesole argues the path for a stronger EUR/USD is limited and warns of downside risks, including a possible retest of 1.140.
Rate spreads support but risks linger"We expect stabilisation today – with markets potentially wanting to wait for weekend clarity – but risks are of a retest of 1.140."
"While all this is injecting new confidence into previously dwindling expectations for a September ECB hike, the path for EUR/USD to come out stronger from this re-escalation is quite narrow."
"The Middle East military re-escalation has prompted a moderate re-tightening in EUR/USD short-term swap rate differentials. In the two-year tenor (often the best correlated with FX moves), that has been worth roughly 10bp."
"That spread is still 50bp wider than its April peak, when markets bet heavily on ECB tightening but not on the Fed’s, but only 15bp wider than before the war."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
According to UOB’s Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD’s sharp rebound has left scope to test major resistance at 1.3445, though a clear break is seen as unlikely in the near term. Short-term support lies at 1.3390 and 1.3360. Over one to three weeks, strengthened momentum could open 1.3480 if 1.3445 gives way, while broader ranges dominate over months.
Pound testing key resistance band"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP fell to 1.3315 on Wednesday and then rebounded strongly. When GBP was at 1.3390 in the early Asian session yesterday, we highlighted that “the sharp rebound appears to be overdone, but there is a chance for GBP to test 1.3420 before the risk of a pullback increases.” We added, “the major resistance at 1.3445 is unlikely to come into view.” GBP then rose to 1.3430, pulled back to 1.3381 before moving back up to close at 1.3409 (+0.14%). While there has been no clear increase in upward momentum, there is a chance for GBP to test the major resistance at 1.3445. A clear break above this level is unlikely. Support is at 1.3390."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Tracking our positive GBP view from late last month, we highlighted yesterday (09 Jul, spot at 1.3390) that “while the risk remains on the upside, given that there has been no further increase in upward momentum, it is left to be seen if GBP can reach 1.3445.” GBP subsequently rose to a high of 1.3430. Upward momentum has strengthened somewhat, and should GBP break above 1.3445, the next level to watch is 1.3480. On the downside, a breach of 1.3360 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3315 yesterday) would indicate that GBP is not advancing further."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded around 1.3431 on Friday, extending its recovery to fresh one-year highs as Sterling continued to outperform while the US Dollar remained under pressure.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.343026 (+0.13%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.144055 (+0.07%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 161.53132 (-0.52%)
DAILY RECAP:
GBP/USD climbed for a third consecutive session, with the pair moving above 1.34 after briefly dipping below 1.3350 earlier in the week.
Sterling has continued to benefit from a combination of easing political uncertainty and expectations that the Bank of England will remain cautious over the pace of future rate cuts.
Recent UK data has been mixed, but inflation remains above target and investors continue to believe policymakers will be reluctant to ease policy aggressively.
In its latest FX briefing, ING argued that Sterling is increasingly taking its direction from domestic developments rather than simply following moves in global bond markets.
The US Dollar, meanwhile, has struggled to regain momentum.
Although the Federal Reserve minutes showed policymakers remain divided over the outlook for interest rates, investors have become less convinced that US rates will move materially higher this year. Broader risk appetite has also improved following a tentative easing in Middle East tensions, reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
MUFG said in its latest market commentary that the Dollar remains vulnerable while positioning continues to unwind and investors rotate back into higher-beta currencies.
Scotiabank also highlighted that recent Dollar weakness has been driven more by changing market positioning than by any fundamental deterioration in the US economy.
With Sterling finding domestic support and the Dollar losing some of its defensive appeal, GBP/USD has reached its highest levels since last summer.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Activity Data and Fed Speakers in Focus For Pound Sterling, with nothing on the calendar for Friday, attention will turn to next Tuesday's final first-quarter UK GDP estimate, together with manufacturing production, industrial production and trade balance figures.
Investors will also be listening closely to comments from Bank of England policymakers for any fresh clues on the timing of future rate cuts.
For the US Dollar, markets will focus on Federal Reserve speakers, including policymakers due to speak after the release of the latest FOMC minutes, alongside US CPI inflation expectations and consumer sentiment updates later in the week.
Investors will also continue to monitor developments in the Middle East after the recent ceasefire reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium.
If UK economic data remains resilient while the Dollar stays under pressure, GBP/USD could extend towards "dense resistance ahead of 1.3500."
However, stronger US data or a renewed flight to safety could pull the pair back towards 1.3300.
According to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, "the GBP’s recovery is looking even more entrenched as it stages its first meaningful attempt at breaking above recent resistance around 1.3400 and levels that roughly correspond to the 50 and 200 day MA’s.
"The offers dense resistance ahead of 1.3500.
"We note the continued recovery in the RSI, climbing to the upper 50s.
"We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450."
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate edged higher to 1.9015 on Friday as investors looked ahead to Canada's latest Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, with the labour market report expected to set the tone for the Canadian Dollar into next week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.901572 (+0.07%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.619926 (+0.01%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41623 (-0.04%)
DAILY RECAP:
GBP/CAD held close to one-week highs ahead of Canada's June labour market report.
The pair has risen steadily since the start of July, with Sterling benefiting from a softer US Dollar backdrop and resilient expectations for Bank of England policy.
Although UK business surveys have pointed to slower economic activity, inflation remains above target and markets continue to expect the Bank of England to proceed cautiously with any further interest-rate cuts.
In its latest FX briefing, ING noted that Sterling continues to find support from domestic fundamentals, even as the pace of gains has moderated.
The Canadian Dollar has been more cautious.
Oil prices remain supportive, but investors have been reluctant to take fresh positions ahead of today's employment report.
Canada's labour market surprised strongly in May, with employment increasing by almost 88,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 6.6%, comfortably beating expectations. Markets will now be watching to see whether that strength was sustained into June or whether hiring has begun to cool.
In recent client commentary, Scotiabank said negative sentiment towards the Canadian Dollar has eased, while MUFG highlighted that incoming domestic data will be critical in determining whether markets continue to price another Bank of Canada rate increase later this year.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Canada's Jobs Report Takes Centre Stage For Pound Sterling, there are no major UK economic releases due today, leaving broader market sentiment and expectations for Bank of England policy to drive direction.
The spotlight falls firmly on Canada.
Canada's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are due later today and are widely expected to be the week's key driver for the Canadian Dollar after May's unexpectedly strong labour market report.
A second consecutive month of robust job creation and another low unemployment reading would strengthen the case for the Bank of Canada to remain cautious about easing policy, supporting the Canadian Dollar.
Conversely, a weaker employment report could revive expectations of policy easing and lift GBP/CAD back towards recent highs.
Oil prices will remain another important influence after this week's geopolitical volatility, with further gains in crude likely to underpin the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 0.4% higher to near $60.22 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) continues to remain under pressure amid hopes that the restart of the war between the United States (US) and Iran won’t long last.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.17% lower to near 100.76. The DXY fell further during the day to near its three-week low at around 100.60.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
Earlier in the day, a US official confirmed that technical talks with Iran remained continued, despite President Donald Trump declaring that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Tehran is over.
Late Wednesday, US President Trump said that he had a conversation with Iran, adding that the nation wants the deal badly. However, he doesn’t believe that Iran would honor the deal.
Meanwhile, a steep correction in oil prices after significant gains earlier this week has also supported the Silver price. The WTI Crude Oil price holds onto Thursday’s losses near $72.00.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released next week.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5775 during the early European session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gathers strength to its strongest level in three weeks against the US Dollar (USD) on a hawkish rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
On Wednesday, the RBNZ raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% and signaled the potential for more hikes this year. RBNZ govorner Anna Breman said that the geopolitical environment is still highly uncertain, but the domestic economy has shown a lot of resilience in the past few months despite the fuel shock.
Traders are fully pricing two additional, quarter-point rate hikes from the New Zealand central bank through December, according to Bloomberg. That’s up from pricing a 36% chance the day before RBNZ’s meeting, the data showed.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, NZD/USD maintains a capped tone as it holds below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the upper Bollinger Band. The pair, however, trades above the Bollinger middle band around 0.5712, suggesting nearby downside support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 hints that the latest bounce carries modest positive momentum but not yet enough to overturn the broader downside bias.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band around 0.5825, with the 100-day SMA just above at 0.5840 forming a tight supply cluster that would need to be reclaimed to ease bearish pressure. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the recent price pivot around 0.5770, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 0.5712 and then the lower band around 0.5601, where a break would expose a deeper extension of the prevailing downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights a modest uptick in EUR/USD momentum, with scope to retest 1.1450 but limited prospects for a sustained break higher. Intraday support is seen at 1.1420 and 1.1405. For the coming one to three weeks, the pair is viewed in a 1.1360–1.1450 range, while a break of 1.1390/1.1410 could expose 1.1210 longer term.
Euro capped near recent highs"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR declined to 1.1390 two days ago before recovering to close largely unchanged at 1.1414 (+0.03%). Yesterday, we noted that “momentum indicators are turning flat,” and we held the view that EUR “is likely to range-trade between 1.1395 and 1.1440.” EUR subsequently traded within a higher range of 1.1412/1.1449, closing at 1.1428 (+0.12%). The slight increase in upward momentum suggests EUR may retest 1.1450. A continued rise above this level is unlikely. Support is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1405 would mean that the prevailing mild upward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (09 Jul, spot at 1.1420), we highlighted that EUR “has likely moved back into a range-trading phase,” and we expected it “to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450.” Although EUR subsequently rose to 1.1449, there has been no clear increase in upward momentum. Looking ahead, with momentum remaining flat, a break above 1.1450 is likely to result in a broader trading range rather than a sustained move higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,752.75 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,800.86 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 428,676.90 per tola from PKR 429,238.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,752.75
10 Grams
367,526.60
Tola
428,676.90
Troy Ounce
1,143,139.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 486.34 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 486.88 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,672.58 per tola from AED 5,678.88 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
486.34
10 Grams
4,863.28
Tola
5,672.58
Troy Ounce
15,126.90
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
