The calendar is loaded. PCE inflation data Wednesday, Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday, and fresh sanctions details from Bessent today all have the potential to move the dollar and yields, which is what silver is really trading right now.
At 15:23 GMT, Spot Silver (XAGUSD) was trading at $69.02, up $0.05, or 0.07%. The market traded as high as $69.92 and as low as $68.42.
Silver’s Bid Is Borrowed From the Dollar and the Long Bond Silver is riding the macro trade Monday. The metal is not generating its own story. CNBC reported that Treasury could tap its General Account, which holds roughly $950 billion, to help fund expanded purchases of longer-dated government bonds. Treasury already said it would at least double purchases of older long-term debt from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. Bessent said the amount could be larger.
The first buyback announcement pushed yields lower for a session. Then the market pushed back. The 30-year yield moved above 5.30% last week and reached levels not seen since 2007. Monday’s General Account report gives Treasury more ammunition. The 10-year yield was near 4.70% Monday after falling more than 3 basis points. The 30-year was near 5.24%, down about 4 basis points. The dollar is hovering near multi-month lows after last week’s slide.
This week's Jackson-Hole symposium and the US Treasury's bond buyback program are the defining factors for this week's EUR/USD forecasts. Current Setup and Live Chart The EUR/USD enters the new week with a moderately bullish bias due to last week’s developments in the US Treasury market.
The previous week began with US long-term Treasury yields spiking to levels not seen in decades. The 30-year Treasury Note hit a 19-year high, and the 10-year Treasury Note also topped 4.24%, a high not seen in a long while. The sharp spike in bond yields caused an accelerated selloff in the US bond market, forcing the US Treasury Department to double its bond-buying program to $4 billion per operation to stabilize the market. The corresponding drop in bond yields reduced the appeal of the US Dollar and USD-denominated assets, weighing on the greenback vs. its peers.
The FX implication of doubling the bond-buying program is that the US Treasury is trying to set a floor under the bond market. This is creating an unusual dynamic:
Treasury buys long-term (10-yr and 30-yr) bonds → drop in long-term yields → Narrowing of US yield advantage → USD loses appeal → EUR/USD gains.
Simultaneously, geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain relevant to price action on USD pairs. Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of stiffer US sanctions against Iran keep geopolitical risks elevated. This means that oil prices will remain high, which brings on inflationary pressures. This is a risk-off event that generates some USD safe-haven appeal. This is the factor limiting the upside in the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD is therefore trading amid the interaction of US fiscal policy (Treasury-market intervention), geopolitics, and central bank expectations, which will come back under the spotlight at this week’s annual Jackson-Hole Symposium.
Macro Drivers for EUR/USD Forecasts 1) The Treasury Buyback Program
The US Treasury announced last Tuesday that it will double the maximum size of its long-end liquidity support operations from two billion dollars to at least four billion dollars per operational cycle. This bond buyback program will cover the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year bond yields. The program is due to commence on 9th of September. However, this is not the same as quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve. This distinction matters because Treasury buybacks primarily aim to boost liquidity by removing less-liquid bonds from the market. In other words, the Treasury is effectively redefining the maturity profile of US government debt and is not creating new money. The US Treasury documentation describing this new initiative explicitly calls them liquidity-support buybacks. For FX market traders, the policy is clear: It aims to contain long-term borrowing costs and reduce the US Dollar’s yield advantage, making USD and USD-dominated assets less appealing. The move has sent the US dollar lower, where it is now trading at multi-month lows versus the euro and many of its other G10 currency pairs.
2) US Fiscal Concerns
Concerns about the US fiscal position are growing. The US Treasury’s intervention reflects these concerns. The surge in the 30-year Treasury yield above 5% indicates investors want higher premiums to buy and hold US government debt for longer. The sentiment is that investors increasingly see attempts to suppress long-term yields as artificial, which indicates that the US government is now uncomfortable with rising borrowing costs. The latter sentiment reduces fiscal credibility and ultimately scares investors away from US government bonds to other destinations. The decline in the US Dollar is evidence of this sentiment currently.
3) Geopolitical Risk Premium Still Generates USD Appeal
The US-Iran conflict is a risk-off event that still generates demand for the USD via safe-haven appeal. If there is severe geopolitical escalation beyond the current situation, safe-haven demand for the dollar will rise, curtailing EUR/USD upside. Furthermore, the Eurozone is an energy-import-dependent region. Higher oil prices will create imported Eurozone inflation, which could stifle Eurozone growth (a key ECB concern). The ECB is likely to turn dovish if Eurozone growth is suppressed.
EUR/USD Price Catalysts This Week 1) Jackson Hole and Fed expectations: This week’s annual Jackson-Hole Symposium is the most important catalyst for price action this week on monetary policy. The market will look for clues on the direction of Fed policy and how ECB policymakers handle the battle between imported inflation and growth.
2) Treasury yields: the intervention of the US Treasury in the bond market has made the direction of the 10-year and 30-year bond yields of prime importance. Typically, rising bond yields are USD-supportive, while falling bond yields are USD-negative, which favors a EUR/USD upside.
3) US-Iran developments and oil prices: A further deterioration in the conflict raises the geopolitical premium and introduces risk-off sentiment, which favors the USD via safe-haven appeal. However, US fiscal concerns and lower US bond yields will reduce USD demand and further weaken the USD. The energy shock also introduces Eurozone inflationary pressures and stifles growth prospects, limiting the Euro’s upside. View the geopolitical situation as fluid, as the dominant factor will determine which way the pair swings.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook The presence of the two pinbar candles at the 1.1671 resistance is indicative of a stall in the uptrend. If the price declines from this resistance, the 15 June high at 1.1621 becomes the immediate downside pivot. If this pivot fails to hold, 1.1577 (19 January and 21 May lows) forms the next downside target. Further below, the double bottom’s neckline at 1.1506 assumes importance.
Fig 1: EUR/USD daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot: 24 August 2026) On the flip side, if 1.1671 holds firm against downward pressure, we could see a bounce targeting 1.1813 resistance as the major upside target. Before then, there is the potential for a pit stop at 1.1743, which served as the 19 February support level.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that the British Pound (GBP) is flat versus the Dollar but outperforming G10 peers despite broad USD strength. With data light, attention turns to PM Burnham’s visit to Kiev and the October 28 budget. Improved sentiment is visible in options markets, and they see scope for GBP/USD to advance toward the 2026 high in the upper‑1.38s.
Pound outperforms on crosses"The pound is entering Monday’s NA session nearly unchanged vs. the USD while outperforming all of the G10 currencies in an environment of broadbased USD strength. The release calendar remains empty and near-term focus appears to be centered on PM Burnham’s visit to Kiev."
"Fiscal developments have been limited but media are already tightening their focus on the autumn budget scheduled for October 28. Measures of sentiment have revealed a material improvement in the market’s mood toward the GBP, with steady gains observed in risk reversals as the options market has faded the premium for protection against downside risk. We see scope for further gains toward the 2026 high in the upper1.38s."
"Bullish – as with EUR, the GBP’s RSI is hovering around the overbought threshold at 70 and just off last week’s peak."
"Recent price action has revealed resistance above 1.3650 and we see limited additional resistance between current spot and the 2026 peak in the upper-1.38s."
"We see near-term support at 1.3600 and 1.3550."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
AUDUSD consolidates just under new 2 ½ month high on Monday after last Friday’s 0.8% gain completed uninterrupted eight-week rally.
Bulls cracked a double Fibo barrier at 0.7180 (Fibo 76.4% retracement of 0.7277/0.6865 / Fibo 161.8% expansion of the third wave of five-wave cycle from 0.6865, June 30 low) where stronger headwinds could be expected, as daily studies are overbought.
However, larger bulls remain firmly in play (bullish daily studies / favorable fundamentals) with consolidation / limited dips likely to precede fresh push higher.
Firm break of barriers at 0.7180 /0.7200 zone (Fibo / May 29 lower top) to signal bullish continuation and expose key barrier at 0.7277 (May 6 peak, the highest in four years).
Rising 10DMA and broken Fibo 61.8% (0.7100/20) should contain dips to keep larger bulls intact.
Traders focus on releases of RBA minutes (Tuesday), Australia’s July CPI / US July PCE (Wednesday) for fresh signals.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Cable trades near 6 ½ month peak (1.3675, hit on Friday) and moving in more quiet mode on Monday, as traders reduce speed ahead of this week’s key events – release of US PCE Index and the speech of Fed’s Warsh in Jackson Hole symposium, which is expected to provide the latest inflation update as well as potential signal about the US central bank’s steps in coming months.
Negatively diverging 14-d momentum, overbought RSI and long upper shadows on Thu/Fri daily candles, warn that bulls may start losing traction.
Larger bullish structure remains firm and suggests that corrective dips should be shallow (ideally to be contained by rising 10DMA at 1.3559, with deeper pullback to find footstep above 1.3520 – Fibo 38.2% of 1.3273/1.3675 upleg) and keep bulls in play for potential acceleration towards 2026 peak at 1.3869.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold has started the week on the front foot, climbing to a high so far of $4680 per ounce. This comes after the precious metal extended its winning streak to three consecutive weeks with another strong advance Friday.
AUD/CAD is approaching an interesting technical decision point, with price pushing back towards the upper boundary of a multi-month triangle near 0.9920–0.9940.
The pair has spent much of the summer consolidating after the strong rally seen earlier this year. Since June, AUD/CAD has effectively compressed between falling resistance around 0.9940 and rising support from roughly 0.9750. That tightening range suggests volatility is being stored, with the latest move putting the upper boundary back under pressure.
From a technical perspective, a daily close above roughly 0.9940 would be the cleaner bullish confirmation. That would break the sequence of lower highs within the consolidation and potentially reopen the path towards the previous highs around 0.9950, followed by the psychological 1.0000 area.
Failure to break, however, would keep the triangle intact and leave AUD/CAD vulnerable to another rotation back towards the middle and lower end of the range.
Fundamentals offer some support to the Australian DollarThe macro backdrop also provides an interesting relative story.
The Reserve Bank of Australia currently holds its cash rate at 4.35%, after raising rates three times earlier this year. Inflation remains above target and the RBA continues to describe price pressures as too high, meaning Australian monetary policy is likely to remain comparatively restrictive.
There is a caveat. Australia’s labour market has started to cool: unemployment increased to 4.5% in July, while employment unexpectedly declined. That reduces the urgency for additional RBA tightening and represents the main risk to the bullish AUD side of the story.
The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, faces a more idiosyncratic headwind. US–Canada trade tensions have escalated sharply, with negotiations breaking down and Canada preparing retaliatory tariffs. The Canadian dollar weakened following the latest escalation, while preliminary data also suggests Canadian factory sales slipped in July.
Canadian trade uncertainty → growth risks increase → CAD pressure.
What to watchFor now, the macro backdrop supports the bullish technical setup, but price still needs to confirm it.
Bullish trigger: daily close above 0.9940.
Key resistance: 0.9950, then 1.0000.
Bearish invalidation: rejection from resistance followed by a move back through the recent 0.9830–0.9850 area.
The triangle is therefore the key battleground. A confirmed breakout would suggest the Australian dollar is beginning to translate its relative macro advantage into price.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD show signs of exhaustion as the US Dollar rebounds, while USD/CAD rises from 1.3750 support amid US-Canada trade tensions.
EUR/USD
-0.15%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
-0.13%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
+0.33%
USD/CAD Forecast
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades at 1.1668 near the 50-period EMA, retreating from 1.1700 with the 200-period EMA near 1.1620 below. Source: TradingView The Euro has been slightly negative during early trading here on Monday.
I find this interesting because, according to the daily charts, we have formed two shooting stars in a row, and we are starting to break a little bit lower. Is 1.17 a bridge too far? Is the market starting to perhaps think about that situation with the Treasury doubling its buyback purchases of the 30-year bond?
After all, all they did was go from $2 billion to $4 billion, which is the same as every other duration. In other words, they’re just equalizing out the market. Now, there would have been a whole host of reasons to do it, but maybe this doesn’t mean what the initial reaction suggested. We’ll just have to wait and see, but this is a market that I’m watching very closely, and I am looking to get bearish on it.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis GBP/USD trades at 1.3639 near the 50-period EMA, showing signs of exhaustion below 1.3700 with 1.3550 as support. Source: TradingView The British Pound is a little bit different, but it is also, on the daily chart, starting to show signs of exhaustion right here at a swing high. So, if we stay in the same range that we’ve been in, one would think that the sellers probably would have to show up sooner or later.
The market for me right now is somewhat neutral, but I am leaning a little bit bearish. We’ll just have to see how that plays out. This is my least favorite currency to buy the US Dollar against at the moment, so definitely something to think about.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis USD/CAD bounces to 1.3845 above the 200-period EMA, rallying from 1.3750 support with 1.3950 and 1.4000 overhead. Source: TradingView The US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar is a long that I actually had initiated a couple of days ago. And now that the trade negotiation has broken down completely between the United States and Canada—in fact, PM Mark Carney suggested that they were in an economic war with the United States in Canada—that’s not going to bode well for the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian economy is highly dependent on the United States, and even if they chose not to be, it’s not something that can be changed overnight.
So when we look at the Dollar against the Canadian Dollar on the longer term, perhaps the daily chart, we can see that we just bounced from a technically significant support level in the form of 1.3750 on Friday and had also bounced from there on Thursday, and now we find ourselves 100 pips higher than that.
Now, I don’t know that I would say this is an extraordinarily bullish chart. I think it’s more or less range-bound on the daily chart, but in the short term, it certainly looks like the headlines are driving it higher, and the interest rate differential could come into play as well. I still like going long here; I don’t have any qualms doing so. Short-term pullbacks look attractive to me.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.
US PCE and Tokyo CPI – USD/JPYEven though Kevin Warsh has argued against traditional inflation tracking, characterizing the central bank’s closely watched core PCE index as a "rough swag," investors will remain focused on upcoming releases. This includes July’s reading, due on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, at least until the Fed officially clarifies its data-dependent framework.
Expectations point to a steady 3.3% y/y headline, with monthly growth nudging up to 0.2%. Despite recent CPI softness, July's FOMC minutes confirmed policymakers are keeping a hawk's eye on tariff risks, with markets pricing in a 25bps rate hike before year-end. An upside PCE surprise could fast-track those rate hike bets, offering USD/JPY the momentum needed to reclaim its 20-day EMA and challenge 159.50. Downside cushion remains firm above the 200-day EMA at 157.90, with 158.50 offering immediate support.
To spark a sustained USD/JPY sell-off, a hawkish shift from the Bank of Japan is essential. This puts Friday’s Tokyo CPI release, which is expected to cool to 1.7% y/y from 1.9%, firmly in the spotlight. Stronger-than-expected readings would bolster the case for a September BoJ rate hike, pushing the pair back down to test the pivotal 157.00–157.90 support zone, where a clean breakdown opens the door toward 155.00.
Jackson Hole symposium – GoldMarket attention shifts to the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday, headlined by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday. Warsh is expected to avoid explicit policy commitments, choosing instead to deemphasize forward guidance and speak more about AI-driven productivity gains.
Still, any commentary on the ballooning fiscal debt, Treasury-Fed dynamics, and the Fed’s balance sheet could take center stage after the US Treasury department’s bond intervention last week.
Overall, any shift in bond yield volatility is expected to directly feed into precious metals momentum. Technically, Gold’s recent rally cleared its 200-day SMA and 4,570 resistance, putting April’s high near 4,770 in sight. While overbought indicators hint at near-term consolidation, a clean breakout above 4,770 opens a blue-sky path toward 5,000. Adding fuel to the fire, potential new US sanctions on Iran keep geopolitical risk premiums bid.
Nvidia Q2 earnings – US100The last full week of August could be particularly important for global stock markets, with Nvidia’s Q2 earnings due on Wednesday after the market close. The AI giant is expected to report a staggering 97% increase in revenue to $91.7 billion, with data centers accounting for the bulk of sales. Earnings per share could also nearly double year-on-year to $2.08.
Investors will keep a close eye on Nvidia’s guidance after the company signed an important partnership with six major financial giants, including BlackRock, aimed at unlocking more than $500 billion in third-party private capital. Meanwhile, reports that China has eased restrictions on Nvidia’s H200 chips have also boosted optimism over the company’s performance in Asia.
Still, the key question is whether strong results will be good enough to ease concerns over the returns on mounting AI investment, echoed by Nvidia’s hyperscale partners such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon and trigger a new rally in the US100. The index, which failed to follow its US peers to fresh all-time highs, is currently seeking support near its 29,000 round level after its recent recovery stalled around 30,150.
Sellers have been in-control on USD/CAD for the since the breakdown at 1.4150 support in mid-July, and this pushed the pair into oversold territory on daily RSI for the first time since January, which was followed by a strong bullish push that eventually led to the break back-above the 1.4000 handle. This comes after a dramatic weekend of headlines around tariffs between the U.S. and Canada, with the Canadian Dollar being punished on the prospect of more trade restrictions.
The week of August 17–21 was a game changer for Gold and Bitcoin, and the trigger was the Treasury bonds market as Scott Bessent had tried to stop a long-end selloff that had already pushed the Nasdaq through five red sessions.
The core of the week was simple. After the 30-year yield touched a 19-year high near 5.34%, the Treasury said it would at least double liquidity-support buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt — from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, starting September 9. In response, the 30-year yield dropped about 10 basis points toward 5.19% immediately weakening the US dollar and lifting Gold.
The absolute winner of the week was Bitcoin which had grown to $79000, soaring for 20% to 25% within a single week.
Equities were slower to join: they needed Friday’s rebound to stop the Nasdaq bleed.
The Bessent put, and why yields still matterBessent framed the move as market-making in a thin August’s market, not as real quantitative easing. The extra buybacks are small versus the stock of outstanding debt. The market did not care about the size. It cared about the signal: if the long end yields rise again, the Treasury is willing to lean against it. A day later Bessent told CNBC the operations “could be more than $4 billion per issue.” That is what traders started calling a “Bessent put.”
US Treasury yields around the Bessent buyback announcement. Source: Bloomberg / ReutersDespite the initial sharp decline of yields of long-end bonds, they have retraced back on Thursday and Friday.
The market is still concerned about the situation in the Hormuz strait and the sticky inflation. Probabilities of interest rate change in September and October haven’t changed significantly throughout the week.
Global stocksUS stocks rose on Friday, attempting to trim losses in a shaky week as the bond market remained jumpy and continued to exert pressure on risk assets. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% to 7,674 — marking only its second positive session in six days since hitting the August 13 record. The Dow jumped 518 points (+1%) to 53,277, while the Nasdaq added 0.4% to 26,180, finally snapping its five-day slump. Market breadth was positive across the board, though it wasn't enough to save the weekly performance.
Upcoming catalysts put market consolidation to the testWeekend futures opened little changed to slightly lower, reflecting a market that has managed to stop the bleeding but hasn't yet found a strong bullish bid. The setup now shifts toward a dense cluster of high-impact events: July PCE and Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, Marvell on Thursday, and Warsh speaking at Jackson Hole.
Nvidia price hikes and capex dynamicsAs Bloomberg reported over the weekend, Nvidia has informed clients that servers featuring Vera Rubin and Blackwell chips will see price increases of over 15% for early-2027 shipments, driven by surging memory costs.
This development presents two potential scenarios into the earnings print:
The bullish take: Strong pricing power that protects corporate margins.The bearish take: Elevated costs for hyperscalers that could slow the broader capex cycle.Either way, equities have moved past last week’s CPI calm. Markets are now hyper-focused on whether Bessent can prevent the long end of the yield curve from driving equity price action.
News in focus this weekAugust 26: Nvidia earnings — first real test of whether the Nasdaq rebound can last.
August 27–29: Jackson Hole — Warsh’s first symposium speech as chair. Still no forward guidance.
Now let’s shift to potential scenarios and trading ideas for the week ahead.
XAU/USDXAU/USD has emerged from the sideways range and reached the 200-day moving average from below. The Bessent announcement broke it higher, and the metal is now working the $4,500–4,600 area after a three-month high. From the historical studies, we know that after acceptance of the area above 200-day moving average, Gold tends to sustain momentum for several days, after which it may retrace back to the area and start rotating.
Given the changing narrative in the bond market and a short-term paradigm shift for metals, we may expect Gold to continue climbing higher until reaching $4800-4900, after which it may rebound to $4550 area.
The risk is that Jackson Hole or a rebound in the 30-year back above 5.30% fades the “Treasury backstop” trade. In that case gold can slip back toward $4,400–4,450, last week’s ceiling and this week’s first support.
XAU/USD, daily chart. Source: Exness.comNatural GasXNG/USD is consolidating in a very narrow range, having shown the bottom for historical volatility: daily ATR(14) has declined towards the low of 2024, showing the possible end of a low volatility cycle. Commodity markets and natural gas in particular have repeatable cycles of decline and growth. As Crude oil was in a spotlight due to the situation in the Hormuz Strait, Natural gas has moved out of the scope of attention of energy traders, and the situation might flip in the near futures.
First off, the net position of commercial traders from COT reports has reached a new peak pointing to a possible start of a new bullish cycle. From seasonal studies we know that the end of August often corresponds to a beginning of seasonal trends for Natural gas futures.
If the price breaks the short-term bracket, it may escalate the move towards the area of $3 - 3.5.
That being said, though, not being already long on gold, it’s probably a bit of a conundrum for traders at the moment. I know that I certainly don’t feel like chasing the market, but any pullback at this point in time, one would have to assume that there will be some people out there looking to get involved.
Technical Outlook The $4,500 level looks to me, at least, as an area that might be a place to find value. Either way, I have no interest in shorting this market.
And despite the fact that interest rates are somewhat elevated, I think we’re starting to move on the principle that the Federal Reserve probably doesn’t raise rates this year. Although we are hearing from some of the members that they still think rates are on the table, which could, of course, cause a lot of volatility in this market.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro (EUR) is softer against the Dollar (USD) after an almost 3% rally from late July, with price action turning defensive. German IFO data and rising political risks, including widening Bund–BTP spreads and French budget talks, are in focus. Technically, EUR/USD remains bullish, with resistance above 1.1700 and support around 1.1580/1.1600.
Euro soft after August surge"The EUR is soft and entering Monday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% decline vs. the USD. Price action is somewhat defensive and notable in the aftermath of the EUR’s impressive near-3% rally from late July, opening up the possibility of a more meaningful reversal."
"Fundamental releases have been limited and this week’s highlight will be the German IFO business sentiment figures scheduled for Tuesday. Yield spreads have pulled back slightly, eroding some of the EUR’s support as US Treasury yields have climbed over the past week or so."
"Political risk appears to be rising as we note the renewed widening in intra-euro area government bond yields with a blowout in the bundBTP spread. Market participants are eyeing this week’s French budget negotiations as well as polls showing solid potential results for far right candidate Marine Le Pen."
"Bullish – the RSI is bullish and hovering around the overbought threshold at 70, pulling back slightly from last week’s peaks around 73."
"Recent price action has revealed clear near-term resistance above 1.1700 following a notable break above the 200 day MA (1.1631). We see limited additional resistance ahead of 1.1800 and see near-term support in the 1.1580/1.1600 area. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.
Highlights of the week: RBA meeting minutes, US PCE and GDP, Canadian GDPTuesdayRBA meeting minutes at 01:30 AM GMT. These are published 2 weeks after the interest rate decision. They give full detail of the discussions and the different views, and record the votes of the members of the committee. This could spark some volatility on the Australian dollar and the instruments traded against it.
WednesdayUS core PCE, expected to be released at 12:30 PM GMT, is anticipated to increase by 0.1% for July. The PCE index shows the changes in the price of goods and services bought by consumers for consumption, and it excludes food and energy. The PCE reading is one of the vital components the Federal Reserve considers when deciding on its monetary policy, and an increase in the Index could prompt a more hawkish stance at the Fed's next meeting.
US GDP growth 2nd estimate for the second quarter of 2026 is expected to decline to 1.5% against the previous figure of 2.1%. If these rather pessimistic expectations are met, then it might create some minor losses for the Dollar while supporting many of its instruments traded against it.
FridayThe Canadian GDP growth rate for the second quarter is at 13:30 GMT. The yearly figure is expected to increase from -0.1% to 3.4% while the quarter-over-quarter is expected to also increase from 0% to 0.8%. If these data are confirmed, then the loonie could gain in the short term against its pairs.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a keynote speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming on Friday, at 14:00 GMT. Markets will be closely watching his remarks for clues on U.S. inflation, bond market risks, and the future direction of interest rates.
USOil, daily
Oil prices fell after two weeks of gains as traders awaited details of the US plan to economically isolate Iran. The market has gained more than 50% this year as the US-Iran war disrupts global crude and refined-product supplies, though uncertainty remains over how far Washington can escalate pressure without triggering further disruptions. Higher prices are also weighing on demand, with China’s Sinopec reporting an almost 8% drop in gasoline consumption and a 12% decline in diesel use in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, while disruptions around the Bab el-Mandeb are forcing Saudi Arabia to use longer routes. In Russia, uncertainty over diesel exports and ongoing tensions around Black Sea shipping add further pressure to an already disrupted energy market.
From a technical perspective, crude oil remains in a short-term bullish trend, with price trading above both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, while currently testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $85. The Stochastic oscillator is in overbought territory, suggesting the recent rally may be losing momentum and could be vulnerable to a short-term pullback. Price is also approaching the upper Bollinger Band around $88, indicating that the market is becoming increasingly stretched. A decisive break above $85 could open the way toward the $88–90 area, while a rejection could bring prices back toward the $82 and $79 Fibonacci support levels. Overall, the technical bias remains bullish, but overbought conditions point to an elevated risk of consolidation or a corrective move.
Gold-Dollar, daily
Gold climbed to its highest level in more than three months, rising above $4,650 an ounce as US Treasury intervention in the bond market pushed yields and the dollar lower. The move revived concerns over currency debasement and encouraged investors to seek alternatives such as gold. Gold-backed ETFs also recorded their strongest weekly inflows since January, signalling broader investor participation. Meanwhile, Ray Dalio urged investors to reduce bond exposure and allocate as much as 15% to gold as a hedge against the risk of a US debt crisis. However, a renewed rise in US real yields or the dollar remains a key near-term risk for the metal.
From a technical point of view, gold has strengthened significantly, breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,488 and now testing the 50% level around $4,649, which is the key resistance area. Price is trading well above both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, confirming a strong bullish trend, while the widening Bollinger Bands reflect increasing volatility. However, the Stochastic oscillator is deeply overbought, suggesting the rally is becoming stretched and could face a short-term correction or consolidation. A decisive break above $4,649 could open the way toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $4,810, while a rejection could bring the price back toward $4,490. Overall, the technical outlook remains bullish, although overbought conditions warrant caution around current levels.
Gold prices rose at the start of the week, extending the positive momentum from the previous week. Ongoing concerns over US fiscal sustainability have been supporting the precious metal, while stabilising Treasury yields and a softer dollar, following the US Treasury’s decision to increase its purchases of longer-dated bonds, have provided further impetus to the rally. The result has been a sharp rise in gold prices, with the precious metal moving above $4,600, a level not seen since May. Against this backdrop, investors will pay close attention to the release of US PCE inflation data later this week. PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and can influence market expectations regarding the central bank’s interest rate path. The Jackson Hole Symposium, organised by the Federal Reserve, will be another highlight of the week. Traders will pay close attention to Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech for clues about the outlook for monetary policy. Any shift in expectations for further rate hikes could have a significant impact on the dollar and, consequently, gold prices. Gold traders will also remain focused on developments surrounding the US-Iran war. The conflict continues to disrupt oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf, keeping energy prices elevated and adding to inflationary pressures, a dynamic that could limit the upside for gold.
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Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes EUR/USD has retraced half of its drop from above 1.20 to 1.1325 and is now stuck in a range as markets await fresh US data. He highlights that 2026 US growth forecasts have been revised down to 2.1%, while Eurozone forecasts were raised to 0.8%, with relative rates tracking relative growth expectations.
Growth and rate differentials steer pair"After retracing 50% of the fall from January’s high above 1.20 to the low at 1.1325, EUR/USD is leaving me humming nursery rhymes – the dollar is neither up nor down, waiting to find out whether soft US July employment and retail sales data will be repeated."
"We have already seen US consensus growth forecasts for 2026 revised back down a touch (to 2.1%) and Eurozone forecasts revised up (to 0.8% from 0.5% just a few weeks ago)."
"This has told a consistent story since the Spring: Relative rates are tracking relative growth forecasts, and the exchange rate is following."
"The bad news is that unless we see US growth expectations deteriorate further, we will see EUR/USD settle into the current range, unless something new comes along."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold keeps firm tone and holds near four-month high on Monday, following almost 5% advance last week, with surprise US Treasury’s buyback being mainly behind the latest rally.
Traders also look for more cues about the US monetary policy outlook in coming months, with focus on Wednesday’s release of US PCE Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and speech of Fed Chair Warsh in the Jackson Hole symposium (starts on Thursday) as key economic events of the week.
Multiple MA bull-crosses and strong positive momentum contribute to increasingly bullish structure on daily chart, although overbought conditions warn that bulls may take a breather.
Limited dips should find ground above broken 200DMA ($4516, which reverted to solid support) to keep larger bulls intact and provide better buying levels.
Bulls pressure immediate target bat $4666 (Fibo 76.4% retracement of $4889/$3942), violation of which to open way towards $4773 (May 12 high) and unmask $4889 (Apr 17 peak).
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold Daily Chart Courtesy www.skcharting.comGold remains in a constructive medium- and long-term bullish structure, with the latest recovery taking spot prices back above the $4,600 psychological level. The weekly, daily and H4 charts all show improving price structure, while the major moving averages remain positively aligned for a meaningful bullish continuation.
The immediate challenge is that the H4 and D1 RSI are around/above 70, indicating strong momentum but also an increasingly stretched short-term condition. Consequently, the highest-probability and a cautious approach is to look for controlled retracements toward support followed by bullish confirmation, rather than aggressively buying at current elevated levels.
A sustained break above $4680–$4720 would provide the next major bullish confirmation and expose $4770 followed by $4820
1. Current market structureDaily — Bullish Breakout Structure.
The daily chart is particularly important because price has moved aggressively through the $4,400–$4,500 resistance cluster.
Price is now trading above several key moving averages, especially 100, 200 and 250 Moving Averages and has pushed toward the upper portion of the recent range.
However, D1 RSI is around 72, which signals strong momentum but also warns that the market is vulnerable to a temporary consolidation or profit-taking phase.
Therefore:
Overbought does not automatically mean bearish. In a strong trend, RSI can remain above 70 for an extended period.
2. Key technical levels$4680–4720 - Major breakout resistance.
$4770 - First upside expansion target and 50% Fibonacci Zone.
The $4575–$4550 region is particularly important for determining whether the current advance is developing into a sustained breakout or merely a short-term exhaustion move.
The key question is whether price can consolidate above the former breakout region rather than whether RSI immediately falls below 70.
3. Fundamental driversWeaker US DollarThe latest gold advance has been supported by renewed dollar weakness. According to Fxstreet data, spot gold reached a more than three-month high around $4670 on August 24, with dollar weakness an important driver.
A sustained decline in the dollar would remain structurally supportive for spot Gold.
Federal Reserve expectationsThe Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% at its July meeting, while several policymakers dissented in favour of a 25-basis-point hike. Markets are therefore highly sensitive to incoming inflation and labour-market data.
The current gold rally is particularly sensitive to whether markets continue reducing expectations for additional tightening.
Markets have been pricing approximately a 36% probability of a September rate hike, while investors are awaiting the upcoming PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
Treasury yields and fiscal concernsUS Treasury buyback expectations and willingness to go beyond $4 Billion have contributed to dollar weakness and helped improve gold's relative attractiveness. Reuters noted that gold's more than 5% gain during the previous week was supported by the Treasury buyback plan and associated pressure on the dollar.
Gold remains sensitive to real yields, however. A renewed sharp rise in Treasury yields could temporarily cap the rally.
Central bank demandOfficial-sector demand remains a significant structural pillar for gold. Reuters recently highlighted persistent central-bank demand and renewed investor interest as important supports for gold's role as an inflation, currency and geopolitical hedge.
This provides a longer-term fundamental cushion beneath significant corrections.
Geopolitical riskContinued geopolitical uncertainty, including tensions surrounding Iran and broader trade-related risks, is maintaining demand for defensive assets. Reuters also noted renewed geopolitical concerns alongside the current gold advance.
Intraday outlookMain trend remains bullish as long as price maintains stability above 38.2% Fibonacci zone $4575
A strong and consolidated breakout above immediate resistance $4680 followed by decisive breakout and acceptance above $4720 will open the way to next 50% Fibonacci zone $4770
Next major resistance sits at $4820
If selling extends below $4575-$4545, a deeper retracement can not be ruled out exposing $4450
Note: These are author's personal observations and readings based on price action and not to be treated as trading advice.
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, Euro / U.S. Dollar is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Neutral-Bearish
Preferred Scenario
Potential Rejection / Decline Toward Next Support Arc
Primary Target Zone
1.1642
Scenario Invalidation
Sustained close above 1.1692
Current Arc Level
Resistance Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status
Testing Resistance Arc
Arc Integrity
Strong
Market outlookThe 0.618 Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.
If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward 1.1642 price becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 4h close above 1.1692 would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the next Resistance Arc at the 0.786 Arc level.
Silver (XAG/USD) is little changed on Monday, fluctuating between modest gains and losses near its highest level since mid-June, with buyers struggling to clear the $70 psychological mark.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $69.17, holding firm after last week’s strong rally, although Gold (XAU/USD) is outperforming the white metal at the start of the week, up nearly 1% on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) is also firmer on Monday, limiting some of Silver’s upside. Still, the broader backdrop remains supportive after the sharp rally in precious metals following the US Treasury’s buyback announcement and fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. However, the interest rate outlook remains uncertain as tensions in the Middle East keep energy-driven inflation risks elevated.
Later this week, attention turns to key US data, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due on Wednesday, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday will also be closely watched for fresh signals on the interest-rate outlook.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, XAG/USD retains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the 100-day Moving Average (MA) at $68 and the Bollinger middle band at roughly $63.
The pair is advancing toward the upper Bollinger band at $70.86, while the 200-day MA at $72.13 looms as a next hurdle. Momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 65 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) positive, although the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 24 hints at a moderate trend strength rather than an aggressive breakout.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the upper Bollinger band at $70, followed by the longer-term barrier at the 200-day MA near $72. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day MA around $68, ahead of secondary demand at the Bollinger middle band near $63, with the lower Bollinger band down at $55 marking a more distant structural floor should a deeper correction unfold.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.13%0.08%0.08%0.60%0.14%0.28%0.18%EUR-0.13%-0.03%0.00%0.47%0.03%0.20%0.06%GBP-0.08%0.03%0.04%0.52%0.06%0.25%0.10%JPY-0.08%0.00%-0.04%0.55%-0.03%0.18%0.07%CAD-0.60%-0.47%-0.52%-0.55%-0.53%-0.26%-0.41%AUD-0.14%-0.03%-0.06%0.03%0.53%0.18%0.05%NZD-0.28%-0.20%-0.25%-0.18%0.26%-0.18%-0.14%CHF-0.18%-0.06%-0.10%-0.07%0.41%-0.05%0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Societe Generale analysts highlight that Gold has broken out of a small base formation, reclaimed its 200‑DMA and is enjoying an extended rebound. The move is framed within broader Dollar debasement concerns and rising term premium. The bank flags successive upside hurdles at $4,730/$4,770 and the April peak at $4,890, with the 200‑DMA near $4,510 seen as key support.
Key hurdles and moving average"Gold broke out of a small base formation earlier this month and has now reclaimed the 200-DMA, resulting in an extended rebound."
"A cross above this longer-term moving average denotes a resurgence of upward momentum."
"Defence of the moving average, now near $4,510, will be crucial for the persistence of this phase of rebound."
"For Gold, the next potential hurdles could be located at $4,730/$4,770 before the April peak at $4,890."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Chris Turner highlights futures data showing asset managers and leveraged funds adding Euro exposure, leaving speculators underweight. He notes recovering German IFO and Eurozone PMIs, and sees limited need for EUR/USD to drop sharply below 1.1660/70 unless risk assets suffer. ING keeps forecasts of EUR/USD at 1.17 for end-September and 1.18 for year-end under review.
Speculative underweight favours Euro upside"Latest positioning data from the futures market in Chicago points to asset managers and leveraged funds buying euro contracts."
"The amounts are not particularly large and the data does predate last Wednesday's jump in EUR/USD, but this does serve as a reminder that speculators look quite underweight the euro. This was the same conclusion we drew when looking at the EUR/USD hedging data."
"On the calendar this week is the release of the August German IFO tomorrow. Like the Eurozone PMIs, this is expected to continue its recovery after the sharp drop witnessed in March and April."
"We do not really see the need for EUR/USD to come back sharply under support at 1.1660/70 today, but last week's break-out area would be the risk if risk assets started to suffer."
"At present, we are happy with our current forecasts for EUR/USD at 1.17 end September and 1.18 for end year - but will be reviewing those this week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its advance on Monday, building on the strong rally seen last week following the US Treasury’s buyback announcement. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,644, up nearly 0.90% on the day, at levels last seen on May 15.
The Treasury’s decision to increase its liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government bonds weighed heavily on the Greenback, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) plunging to a three-month low. Gold received a double boost from the move, benefiting from a weaker USD while also attracting safe-haven demand as investors focused on concerns surrounding US fiscal policy and rising government debt.
Strategists at OCBC highlight that “USD debasement has re-emerged as a market theme” after the US Treasury unexpectedly expanded its long-end buyback programme, a move they say signals “discomfort with the recent rise in long-dated yields.” They add that the “resulting unwind of US steepener positions has likely reinforced other debasement trades, including a weaker USD, a rebound in gold and higher US inflation breakevens.”
However, long-term US Treasury yields remain elevated despite the buyback announcement, which could put the brakes on Gold’s advance. The 30-year Treasury yield trades around 5.24%, close to its recent 19-year high of 5.33%. Higher yields can weigh on the non-yielding metal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding Gold.
The US Dollar is also firmer on Monday after last week’s sharp decline. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.98, up about 0.13% on the day.
Market attention now turns to key US event risks later this week, with the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due on Wednesday before Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
Investors will watch the PCE report closely to assess whether the recent moderation in inflation is enough for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged again at its September meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 38% probability of a rate hike.
Still, energy-driven inflation risks remain in focus as tensions in the Middle East keep shipping through the Strait of Hormuz restricted. The United States is preparing to announce fresh sanctions against Iran on Monday, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent due to unveil what he has described as “economic D-Day” measures against Tehran at 18:00 GMT.
Technical analysis: Buyers hold the upper hand as RSI turns overbought
XAU/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above both the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA. The metal is advancing within a strong uptrend, supported by a moderately firm Average Directional Index at 33.67, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 71 has entered overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is stretched but still dominant.
A positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reinforces the constructive tone, with the broader structure favoring further gains as long as price stays above the key moving averages and upper Fibonacci supports.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,685, followed by the cycle high anchor near the 100.0% retracement at $4,886. On the downside, first support is seen at the 61.8% retracement at $4,528, closely backed by the 200-day SMA at $4,516, forming a nearby demand cluster.
Deeper support levels emerge at the 50.0% retracement at $4,417 and the 100-day SMA at $4,379, with additional structural floors at the 38.2% retracement at $4,307 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,170, where buyers would likely attempt to defend the broader bullish trend if a corrective pullback unfolds.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) ticks lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, but maintains its broader bullish tone, with the AUD/USD pair trading at 0.7164, a few pips shy of the 12-week high of 0.7180 hit last Friday. A mild risk-averse market mood is weighing on the Aussie, but the US Treasury’s plan to repurchase long-term securities keeps weighing on USD bulls.
Beyond that, economists at Wells Fargo see the Aussie supported as investors await next week's Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) to confirm whether “ the inflation relief seen in June can be sustained.”
Wells Fargo experts forecast “headline inflation to rise 1.0% in July, leading the year-over-year rate down to 3.4%, while trimmed mean inflation remains at 3.6% year over year.” Against that backdrop, “a September or Q4 rate hike remains in play if inflation remains elevated and demand conditions continue to prove resilient,” say the bank strategists in a note.
Technical Analysis: A moderate bearish correction looks likely
AUD/USD trades at 0.7165, holding a bullish near-term bias yet with technical indicators showing signs of exhaustion. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) highlights a bearish divergence as it pulls back from oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned lower and attempts to cross the Signal line, which is considered a bearish sign.
Bears are likely to be challenged at a previous resistance area near 0.7130 (August 17, 20 highs) ahead of the August 19 low, just below 0.7070. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 0.7200 area, which capped gains in late May and early June. Above here, the next target is the year-to-date high, near 0.7280.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.14%0.13%0.13%0.53%0.15%0.20%0.19%EUR-0.14%0.00%0.02%0.39%0.02%0.12%0.06%GBP-0.13%-0.01%0.02%0.40%0.01%0.12%0.06%JPY-0.13%-0.02%-0.02%0.44%-0.07%0.06%0.03%CAD-0.53%-0.39%-0.40%-0.44%-0.46%-0.26%-0.34%AUD-0.15%-0.02%-0.01%0.07%0.46%0.11%0.06%NZD-0.20%-0.12%-0.12%-0.06%0.26%-0.11%-0.06%CHF-0.19%-0.06%-0.06%-0.03%0.34%-0.06%0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a bullish bias on Monday and trades near its highest levels since mid-May. The precious metal remains supported by fading expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lower US Treasury bond yields, which boost the appeal of non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran sustain demand for safe-haven assets but also support the US Dollar (USD), limiting Gold’s upside potential.
In the daily chart below, XAU/USD trades at $4,647.02, extending its advance well above the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,379.73 and $4,516.92, respectively, which reinforces a bullish near-term bias. The reclaim of the broken downward trendline currently around $4,389.60 further underpins the constructive tone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 72.03 shows overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly vulnerable to a corrective pause rather than a trend reversal at this stage.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier near $4,773.00, followed by a higher cap around $4,890.00. On the downside, immediate support emerges from the 200-day SMA at $4,516.92, with the former trend-line region at $4,389.60 and the 100-day SMA at $4,379.73 forming a deeper demand zone ahead of the more distant horizontal floor near $4,003.29.
In the one-hour chart below, XAU/USD trades at $4,649.38, extending its advance firmly above the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,492.92 and $4,440.88, respectively, which underpins a clear bullish near-term bias. The pair also sits above the ascending trend-line around $4,641.28, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 68 suggests strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum as price hovers just below the overbought band.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the trendline level around $4,641.28, ahead of the more substantive horizontal floor at $4,530.00. Below that, the 100-period SMA at $4,492.92 and the $4,450.00 horizontal level line up over the 200-period SMA at $4,440.88, forming a deeper demand area that would come into play on a more pronounced correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $68.80 per troy ounce, down 0.25% from the $68.98 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 3.21% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.46 on Monday, up from 66.74 on Friday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Pound-Canadian Dollar rate could remain under pressure if Canadian GDP rebounds strongly and lifts Bank of Canada rate hike expectations. The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate ticked lower last week as a fresh rise in oil prices bolstered the 'Loonie'.
At the time of writing, the GBP/CAD exchange rate traded at CA$1.8754. Down around 0.2% from the start of last week’s session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.878441 (-0.10%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.607534 (-0.20%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.3767 (-0.11%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Canadian dollar (CAD) edged higher last week with the commodity-linked currency drawing support from a renewed surge in oil prices.
Brent crude rose to around $94 a barrel last week as the 60-day memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran expired without a final peace deal or an agreed extension, reinforcing concerns that the disruption to energy supplies could persist.
In terms of domestic data, the Canadian Dollar was seemingly unfazed by a stronger-than-expected inflation print and sizable contraction in Canadian retail sales.
The Pound (GBP) put in a mixed performance last week, with the currency fluctuating against most of its rivals amid a flurry of high-impact UK economic data.
A mixed batch of releases left investors struggling to gauge the next move from the Bank of England (BoE). Weaker employment figures followed by an unexpected acceleration in inflation weighed on Sterling during the first half of the week, as the conflicting signals complicated the outlook for interest rates.
The Pound then attempted to regain ground, only for the recovery to falter after a sharp decline in UK retail sales and a shock rise in UK government borrowing last month.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Rebound in Canadian GDP to Boost the 'Loonie'? Looking to the week ahead, the primary catalyst of movement for the Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate is likely to be the publication of Canada's latest GDP data.
Consensus estimates predict Canadian GDP will have rebounded strongly in the second quarter, lifting the country out of the technical recession it slipped into in the first quarter of the year.
This in turn could improve the odds of the Bank of Canada (BoC) delivering an interest rate hike later in the year, boosting the appeal of the 'Loonie'.
Meanwhile, a relatively quiet UK economic calendar should leave Sterling largely dependent on wider risk appetite and developments across global markets.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold’s price reaches new three-month highGold’s price continued its upward motion as the week began, reaching a new three-month high. A weakening USD seems to be benefiting the precious metal’s price, and for the time being, the negative correlation of the two trading instruments seems to remain in place. Market attention is shifting towards the release of the US PCE rates for July on Wednesday and a possibly cooler-than-expected report could aid gold’s price further. Near the end of the week, we also highlight the speech of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium, and a possibly less hawkish tone may also provide support for gold’s price.
Bitcoin seems to remain stable for nowBitcoin’s rally over the past week seems to have calmed down over the weekend as the crypto king’s price seems to stabilise near $78k. The rally was instigated by US finance minister Bessent’s buyback intentions in the bond market, ETF inflows for the crypto market, and US President Trump’s pressure on US legislators to move ahead with the Clarity Act, which is to be a framework for cryptocurrencies. Overall, if confidence in the crypto market is renewed, we may see further bullish movements.
Other highlights for todayNo major financial releases are expected today, yet in tomorrow’s Asian session, we note the release of Japan’s Chain Store sales for July, while RBA is to release the minutes of the August meeting.
As for the rest of the weekOn Tuesday we get Germany’s Ifo indicators for August and on Wednesday we note the release of Australia’s CPI rates for July, the UK’s distributive trades for August, the US PCE rates for July, the durable goods orders also for July and the 2nd estimate of the US GDP rates for Q2. On Thursday we get Australia’s capital expenditure for Q2, Norway’s GDP rates for Q2, the weekly initial jobless claims figure and Canada’s current account balance for Q2. On Friday we get from Japan Tokyo’s CPI rates for August, Sweden’s final GDP rates for Q2, France’s preliminary HICP rates for August, Switzerland’s KOF indicator for August, Euro Zone’s economic sentiment for August, Canada’s GDP rates for Q2 and the final US UoM Consumer Sentiment for August, while Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Charts to keep an eye outXAU/USD’s rally seems to continue as the precious metal’s price has reached a new three-month high. We intend to maintain a bullish outlook for gold’s price as long as the upward trendline guiding it remains intact, yet note that the RSI indicator has surpassed the reading of 70 implying that gold may have reached overbought levels and is ripe for a correction lower. Should the bulls maintain control, we may see XAU/USD aiming for the 4890 (R1) resistance line. Should the bears take over we may see gold’s price breaking initially the 4550 (S1) support line continue to break also the prementioned upward trendline, in a first signal that the upward motion has been interrupted and continue to reach if not breach the 4275 (S2) support level.
BTC/USD seems to stabilise just below the 78170 (R1) resistance line over the weekend. Given the upward motion of the crypto, we maintain our bullish outlook for Bitcoin yet note its stabilisation tendencies. The RSI remains well above the reading of 70, which highlights the bullish market sentiment for the crypto-king yet at the same time also implies that it has reached overbought levels and could correct lower any given moment. Should the bulls continue to lead Bitcoin’s price, we may see it breaking the 78170 (R1) resistance base and set as the next possible target for the bulls the 82900 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see the cryptocurrency aiming if not breaking the 74200 (S1) support line.
EUR/USD has regained ground in recent sessions, with the pair trading near 1.17 as broad-based weakness in the US dollar continues to dominate the foreign-exchange market. The main driver remains the changing monetary-policy outlook, with investors focused on whether the Federal Reserve can maintain a restrictive stance while the US economy shows signs of slowing.
The dollar faces a key test this week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to deliver his first speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Persistent inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields could encourage a hawkish tone, particularly if Warsh signals that rate cuts in September are far from guaranteed. Conversely, weaker US growth or softer inflation data would reinforce expectations of easier monetary policy and could extend the dollar’s decline.
In Europe, euro-area inflation rose to 2.9% in July, keeping price pressures above the ECB’s 2% target. The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since June, but higher energy prices and renewed inflation risks could limit the scope for further easing.
With EUR/USD trading near multi-month highs, the Jackson Hole symposium and upcoming US PCE inflation data could determine whether the euro can extend its advance or whether a hawkish Fed response triggers a renewed recovery in the dollar.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
As the daily EUR/USD chart shows, the pair has broken decisively above the descending trendline that had capped price action since the February highs, marking a significant shift in the medium-term structure.
The pair is now trading around 1.1665, comfortably above both the 100-period EMA at 1.1546 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.1579. The breakout has also lifted EUR/USD away from the 1.1537–1.1495 support area, leaving the 1.1714 Fibonacci resistance level as the next major test.
Bullish Scenario If buyers can maintain control above the 1.1579 Fibonacci level and the 100-period EMA, the bullish structure remains intact.
A break above 1.1714 would open the way towards the 1.1775–1.1800 resistance zone, where previous price action has repeatedly stalled. A sustained move above this area would strengthen the case for a broader recovery and suggest that the longer-term downtrend may have been decisively reversed.
Bearish Scenario Conversely, a rejection at 1.1714 followed by a break below 1.1579 would weaken the current setup and expose the 100-period EMA around 1.1546, which is closely aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.1537.
A deeper decline through this confluence would bring the 0.618 retracement at 1.1495 into focus, followed by 1.1435 and the 0.786 Fibonacci level as the next downside references.
With EUR/USD testing major Fibonacci resistance after breaking above its descending trendline, the key question is whether buyers can turn the breakout into a sustained advance towards 1.1800, or whether resistance will once again send the pair back towards its key support zone.
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EUR/USD begins the week at 1.1700 – its highest level since May.
The euro is being supported by improving European economic data and dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s decision to expand its bond buyback program.
Business activity in the eurozone continued to expand in August, with Germany’s industrial sector showing the most notable improvement. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations edged slightly lower, with the one-year outlook easing to 2.9% from 3.0%. However, inflation remains above the ECB’s target, keeping expectations of further policy tightening intact.
This week, market attention will focus on economic data from both Europe and the US.
On Tuesday, Germany will release the Ifo business climate index, while Friday brings preliminary inflation figures from France. The main event will be Wednesday’s US data releases: core PCE, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending.
On Friday, markets will also assess the preliminary annual revision to nonfarm payrolls. Weak US data would increase pressure on the dollar and support EUR/USD, while strong inflation data and other robust readings could help the US currency recover some of its lost ground. The underlying fundamentals for EUR/USD remain moderately positive.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market continues to trade within a consolidation range around the 1.1668 level, which is nearing completion. An upside breakout would open the way for a corrective move towards 1.1811, followed by a decline to 1.1581. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.1455, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1400. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but trending downward, reflecting continued bearish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has moved higher to 1.1710. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. A move lower towards 1.1622 is expected, with scope for a further decline to 1.1611. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion EUR/USD has climbed to its highest level since May, supported by improving European data and dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement. Eurozone business activity, particularly in Germany’s industrial sector, continues to expand, while consumer inflation expectations have moderated slightly, though they remain above the ECB’s target. Markets now face a busy week of economic data, including US PCE, GDP, durable goods orders, and the annual nonfarm payrolls revision, which will provide important signals on the relative strength of the two economies. Technically, an upside breakout could open the way towards 1.1811 before a potential pullback to 1.1581. However, a direct downside breakout would expose 1.1455 and potentially 1.1400. The near-term direction will depend on upcoming data releases and central bank signals.
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TL;DR: Gold’s Jackson Hole test on Friday isn’t really about rate signals — it’s about whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh draws a clear line between monetary policy and Treasury’s efforts to influence long-end bond markets, with only one of three likely outcomes genuinely threatening the rally.
Gold’s Jackson Hole Test Is Bigger Than Rates Gold is heading into Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Aug. 28, with investors focused on far more than whether he nudges expectations for another rate hike. September tightening odds are already relatively low, leaving limited room for a conventional rates signal alone to redefine the rally. Bigger question is institutional: how firmly Warsh separates monetary policy from Treasury’s increasingly active efforts to influence conditions at long end of bond market.
That matters because Gold’s latest advance looked like a fiscal-credibility trade first and a rate-cycle trade second. Rally accelerated around Treasury’s Aug. 19–20 decision to double minimum long-duration buybacks from $2bn to at least $4bn per operation. But skepticism quickly centered on what buybacks cannot do: they can improve liquidity and redistribute duration pressure, but they do not reduce underlying borrowing requirement or repair fiscal arithmetic. Real yields and Dollar can reinforce that trade, but concern over longer-run fiscal credibility has become an important driver in its own right. A fuller discussion of that mechanism is available in Dollar Index Faces Structural Breakdown Toward 90, EUR/USD Eyes 1.20 Breakout.
Why Warsh Matters More Than September Hike Odds Jackson Hole therefore becomes a test of how Warsh defines boundary between Fed and Treasury. Greater reliance on short-term bill issuance leaves government interest costs more sensitive to changes in Fed policy. That does not mean fiscal costs will determine Warsh’s reaction function. Rather, it makes his answer more consequential: markets need to know whether Treasury financing pressure is something Fed should explicitly ignore when setting policy, or whether closer Treasury-Fed coordination becomes part of framework.
Warsh’s own history prevents an easy assumption that a Trump-appointed Fed Chair will automatically lean toward accommodation. He has long criticized an oversized Fed balance sheet and large-scale asset purchases, and his recent remarks at ECB’s Sintra forum emphasized price stability and defense of 2% inflation target. That tension is precisely why Friday matters. Warsh could validate concern about fiscal dominance, reject it directly, or leave markets with much the same ambiguity they have today.
Three Ways Friday Could Go 1. Treasury-Fed Accommodation (most bullish for Gold) Most bullish outcome for Gold would be a speech that leans into Warsh’s “New Treasury-Fed Accord” in a way investors interpret as Fed becoming more sensitive to government financing or bond-market pressures.
That would reinforce concern that line between monetary policy and fiscal financing is becoming less distinct. Gold would not need a dovish rate signal for that interpretation to matter. A perceived willingness by Fed to accommodate fiscal stress would directly strengthen the fiscal-credibility, or “debasement,” thesis behind part of current rally.
2. Monetary Independence and Market Discipline (most bearish for Gold) Most bearish outcome would be Warsh drawing a clear line in opposite direction. He could reassert his anti-QE instincts, emphasize that Treasury financing considerations should not determine monetary policy, and frame balance-sheet restraint as a way of forcing government debt back onto private markets rather than allowing Fed to absorb fiscal pressure.
Crucially, Warsh would not need to promise a September hike to hurt Gold. A forceful defense of monetary independence could weaken one of rally’s central assumptions: that persistent fiscal pressure will eventually constrain Fed or encourage renewed balance-sheet accommodation.
3. Strategic Ambiguity (the simplest outcome) Third possibility is also simplest: Warsh discusses Treasury-Fed coordination in broad terms but avoids defining what it means operationally. He could emphasize price stability, institutional cooperation and financial-market functioning without resolving where monetary policy ends and Treasury debt management begins.
That would leave Gold’s underlying thesis largely untouched. Fiscal deficits, rising debt-service costs and Treasury’s maturity-management challenge would still exist after speech. In that sense, ambiguity is not neutral for an established trend: it allows incumbent fiscal-credibility trade to continue without fresh contradiction.
Why Only One Scenario Really Threatens the Thesis That creates an important asymmetry. Gold does not need Warsh to endorse fiscal-credibility trade for it to survive. Treasury-Fed accommodation would reinforce it, while an ambiguous speech would leave its foundations in place. Only a clear market-discipline message directly challenges expectation that Fed may eventually be drawn into accommodating fiscal pressure.
Even that would not erase broader fiscal problem. A strong independence speech could weaken monetary-accommodation leg of Gold thesis, but it would not reduce deficits, lower debt stock or change Treasury’s financing requirement. That makes a bearish Warsh outcome potentially powerful for price without necessarily destroying longer-term argument.
Short-term price reaction is another matter. Gold is already technically stretched, which means thesis asymmetry and price asymmetry are not the same thing. Even a fundamentally bullish speech could trigger profit-taking if investors use Jackson Hole to lock in gains. Conversely, a bearish interpretation could produce a sharp correction that proves larger than underlying change in fiscal thesis.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold Technical development remains consistent with correction from 5,598.75 having completed at 3,942.43. Further rise is favored, but overbought conditions on daily RSI could cap first attempt through 4,770.73–4,966.14, representing 50% and 61.8% retracements of decline from 5,598.75 to 3,942.43.
Near-term outlook stays bullish while 55-day EMA, now at 4,296.69, holds on any retreat. Firm break of 4,966.14 would strengthen case for retest of 5,598.75 high.
In bigger picture, long-term uptrend also remains intact after Gold defended 4,076.92, the 38.2% retracement of 1,614.92 to 5,598.75, and quickly recovered above 55-week EMA. It is still too early to conclude that long-term uptrend is ready to resume. But if that is eventually confirmed, tentative medium-term objective would be 6,404.71, the 61.8% projection of 1,614.92 to 5,598.75 from 3,942.43.
Friday’s real tell is therefore not simply whether Warsh sounds hawkish or dovish. Gold traders should listen for whether Fed Chair explicitly defends monetary independence from Treasury financing pressures. Two of three broad outcomes leave current fiscal-credibility thesis intact. Only one directly challenges it—and with Gold already overbought, even that distinction may matter more for durability of rally than for size of Friday’s first move.
Key Takeaways Gold’s rally is a fiscal-credibility trade first and a rate-cycle trade second, meaning September hike odds alone won’t determine Friday’s reaction. Two of three likely Jackson Hole outcomes — accommodation and strategic ambiguity — would leave the fiscal-credibility thesis behind Gold’s rally intact. Only a forceful defense of monetary independence from Treasury financing pressure would genuinely threaten the rally’s foundation, without erasing the underlying fiscal problem. Gold is already technically overbought, so even a fundamentally bullish speech could trigger profit-taking regardless of what Warsh actually says. Gold faces resistance at 4,770.73-4,966.14; a break would strengthen the case for a retest of the 5,598.75 high, with 6,404.71 as a tentative longer-term objective.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes that Gold has rallied sharply as recent U.S. Dollar weakness and concerns over Fed credibility and Treasury bond-market intervention drive fresh long positioning. Worries about America’s fiscal situation are reviving the USD debasement trade and may continue to support Gold, although a move toward TD Securities’ $5,350/oz target is still considered premature.
Fresh longs chase debasement trade"Traders added to gold exposure as the recent U.S. Dollar weakness, Fed Credibility and Treasury Bond Intervention concerns come into focus."
"Worries about America's fiscal situation are once again resurrecting the USD debasement narrative, which, in turn, is energizing gold bugs."
"Based on Treasury Dept statements, market participants believe the government bond market interference may get even more aggressive. At this stage, gold may continue to respond to the weaker USD."
"A move to our $5,350/oz target is a little premature for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
USD/CAD is recovering from a multi-month low, moving towards 1.3820 on Monday as the Canadian dollar weakens after US-Canada trade talks broke down over the weekend.
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Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses as the British Pound (GBP) seems to be coping better with the moderate risk-off mood amid growing tensions between the US and Iran, as Washington pledged an “economic D-Day” on the Islamic Republic. The EUR/GBP dives for the third consecutive day on Monday, trading at 0.8555 at the time of writing, about 0.3% below last week’s highs.
The calendar is thin on Monday, and data released on Friday showed fairly strong economic activity in both the UK and the Eurozone, while the UK's Retail Sales disappointed in July.
Analysts at ING highlight that, in the current "low volatility environment, sterling is probably still enjoying some carry demand given it is one of the highest, volatility-adjusted currencies in G10." Against that backdrop, they judge that "EUR/GBP can probably hang around these 0.8550 levels for the time being," with the cross expected to remain broadly steady as investors continue to favour the Pound’s carry profile.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at 0.8530
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8556, halfway through the last four weeks' range, between 0.8530 and 0.8585. The immediate bias, however, has turned bearish and momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart are modestly soft. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is drifting toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turned slightly negative, which hints at waning upside pressure while keeping the cross in a range-bound configuration.
Bears are likely to be tested at the August 19 low, at the 0.8550 area. Further down, a breach of the July 24 and August 12 lows, at the 0.8530 area, would confirm a Double Top formation at 0.8585, whose measured target lies a few pips below the late July lows, at 0.8483.
On the topside, immediate resistance appears at Friday's top of 0.8575, followed by the top of July and August's trading range, at the mentioned 0.8585 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.13%0.09%0.16%0.52%0.11%0.16%0.15%EUR-0.13%-0.02%0.06%0.40%-0.01%0.09%0.03%GBP-0.09%0.02%0.09%0.45%0.00%0.12%0.05%JPY-0.16%-0.06%-0.09%0.40%-0.13%-0.00%-0.04%CAD-0.52%-0.40%-0.45%-0.40%-0.49%-0.29%-0.37%AUD-0.11%0.00%-0.01%0.13%0.49%0.11%0.06%NZD-0.16%-0.09%-0.12%0.00%0.29%-0.11%-0.07%CHF-0.15%-0.03%-0.05%0.04%0.37%-0.06%0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains stronger for the fourth successive day, trading around $69.00 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday. Silver price rises as concerns over United States (US) debt management and fiscal sustainability persist.
This market reaction follows the US Treasury Department's pledge to at least double its buybacks of longer-dated government debt to curb surging bond yields. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated these buybacks could exceed $4 billion, signaling a strategic effort to demonstrate that elevated yields fail to accurately reflect underlying economic fundamentals.
However, non-yielding Silver could face potential headwinds if energy prices trend upward, which could limit the scope for upcoming interest-rate cuts. Secretary Bessent announced plans to impose unprecedentedly tough sanctions as part of an economic isolation campaign designed to force Iran and its trade partners into compliance. This policy shift threatens further constraints on global energy markets, especially as Iranian oil shipments experience severe disruptions and offers to Chinese buyers fall off amid an ongoing US naval blockade.
Tehran has dismissed the impending sanctions as an ineffective attempt to exert economic pressure, emphasizing decades of experience navigating blockades and building economic resilience. Meanwhile, geopolitical friction around the Strait of Hormuz remains acute, with vessel transit through the critical oil corridor staying well below historical averages.
Fed watchers eye Warsh’s Jackson Hole focus on AI and task forcesAccording to Deutsche Bank, their US economists have published a preview of Fed Chair Warsh’s upcoming Jackson Hole appearance, highlighting the potential for a more thematic address. They note that if Warsh opts for a “big-picture” speech, “then his options include a discussion of the Fed’s task forces he set up, or possibly a speech on AI’s impact on the economy and his thinking,” framing the event as a key opportunity for insight into his broader policy approach.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Pound-Australian Dollar could remain under pressure if RBA minutes revive rate hike bets, while a quiet UK calendar leaves Sterling reliant on wider market trends. The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate traded in a wide range last week amid uneven UK economic data and a shifting market mood.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.9067. Down roughly 0.2% from the start of last week’s session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.90266 (-0.72%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.36445 (+0.01%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) traded in a wide range this week as a barrage of UK economic releases delivered a mixed picture of the domestic economy, leaving investors uncertain over the outlook for Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy.
The week began with softer-than-expected employment data, which showed unemployment holding at 4.9% while wage growth also slowed, with private sector pay increasing at its weakest pace since late 2020.
Sterling remained muted with the subsequent release of the UK's consumer price index, as an uptick in inflation failed to lift expectations for a BoE rate hike later in the year.
Attempts by the Pound to recover in the latter half of the week then proved short-lived, with GBP exchange rates being undermined by a sharp contraction in retail sales, and struggling to benefit from positive PMIs.
The Australian dollar (AUD) got off to a positive start last week, with the currency benefitting from positive risk flows and a surprise improvement in domestic consumer confidence.
The 'Aussie' then faced notable headwinds in the middle of the week, initially giving up ground in response to weak domestic wage data.
The AUD selloff then gathered pace with the publication of Australia's latest jobs report as a shock contraction in the labour market last month tempered bets for another Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike later in the year.
However, the Australian Dollar was then about to bounce back again at the very end of the week as widespread weakness in the US Dollar helped to bolster market risk appetite.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Hawkish RBA Minutes to Lift the 'Aussie'? Looking to the week ahead, a quiet data calendar will see the minutes from the RBA's latest policy meeting act as the main catalyst of movement for the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate.
If the minutes strike a hawkish tone and signal that policymakers are likely to support further tightening, it could help to revive RBA rate hike bets and lift the 'Aussie'.
Meanwhile, UK economic releases are in short supply this week, likely leaving movement in the Pound to be dictated by wider market trends.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview For the U.S. Dollar Index, the 4-hour chart shows a price currently at $98.89 after breaking the $99.38 support. The price is below the 50, and 100, period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) confirming a bearish sentiment. The price has been attempting to stabilize in the range of $98.55 to $98.82, and has broken some support, but no major resistances have been established.
The USD Index Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is at 44. It has improved from the oversold area but remains under neutral. The first resistance is at $98.99, and the subsequent resistances are at $99.13, $99.27, and $99.38. The targets after that are $99.71, and $100.03. The first support is at $98.55, and after that are $98.24, and $97.89.
While the price of the DXY remains below $99.38, the overall sentiment remains bearish. Recovery of the price above $99.38 would change some of the sentiment, but consistent rejection of the price below the EMA cluster would keep the sentiment bearish and may test $98.55 again.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Tests Triple-Top Resistance Near $1.3656 as RSI Turns Overbought
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD remains in a short-term consolidation, with price action confined between 1.3620 and 1.3665 after an overbought push to 1.3675. Their 1–3 week view stays positive, looking for a move toward 1.3700 unless the pair falls through strong support at 1.3585, while longer-term signals still favor broader range trading.
Short term consolidation, medium term upside"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP rose to a high of 1.3661 last Thursday and then eased. When it was at 1.3640 on Friday, we highlighted that “further GBP strength is not ruled out, but deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance could be contained within a 1.3605/1.3670 range.” We added, “even if GBP breaks above 1.3670, it is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.3700.” GBP subsequently rose to 1.3675 and then pulled back to close little changed at 1.3644 (+0.09%). The price movements still appear to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3620 and 1.3665."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.3540). On Friday (21 Aug, spot at 1.3640), we indicated that GBP “could continue to rise to 1.3700.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, if GBP breaks below 1.3585 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3575 last Friday), it would mean that 1.3700 is out of reach."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
On 19 August, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser adopted a more hawkish tone, warning that another rate increase could become necessary if the inflation risks highlighted by the central bank — including the conflict in the Middle East, a surge in demand from the AI sector and weak productivity — begin to materialise.
His comments came one week after the RBA decided on 11 August to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting.
For the Canadian dollar, oil prices remain a more important driver. Crude has continued to rise this week amid heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over potential supply disruptions. Higher oil prices can traditionally support the Canadian dollar given the country’s significant commodity exports.
Technical Analysis of AUD/CAD
On the four-hour AUD/CAD chart, a medium-term sideways range has been developing since April. Within this range, the price has formed a broadening triangle, characterised by trendlines that diverge rather than converge and reflecting progressively wider price swings.
On Monday, 24 August, trading opened with a gap above the upper boundary of the formation. If the bullish impulse continues to develop, the next significant obstacle could be the red resistance level at 0.9925.
A failed breakout and subsequent reversal lower would bring several key levels within the current market profile into focus. These include the upper profile boundary at 0.9850, the Point of Control (POC) at 0.9832 and the lower profile boundary at 0.9815.
Below the profile’s main area of concentration, near the base of the triangle, lies the green support zone around 0.9785.
The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 71, 48 and 50. The oscillator is approaching overbought territory, while both moving averages remain around the middle of the neutral zone, providing little confirmation of the strength of the current move.
Key Takeaways The elevated RSI reading and neutral moving averages are yet to produce a coordinated signal, leaving the sustainability of the gap and the attempted breakout uncertain.
The fundamental backdrop is also sending mixed signals. The RBA’s increasingly hawkish rhetoric provides support for the Australian dollar, while higher oil prices could strengthen the Canadian dollar. The balance between these two forces may prove decisive for the next move in AUD/CAD.
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Gold – Chart Gold is trading near $4,647 in a rising channel on the 4-hour chart. Prices for Gold are well above the 50-EMA at $4,453, and the 100-EMA at $4,359, supporting the short-term bullish sentiment for Gold. The prices of Gold are touching the upper boundary of the channel, indicating the rising buyers, however, the prices are nearing a point where the price of Gold will not be able to move upward easily.
Gold’s RSI is almost touching 73, indicating the price of Gold is in an overbought zone, and is likely to consolidate or retract. The immediate resistance is at $4,661 then at $4,729, $4,794 and $4,859. The supports zones for Gold are at $4,567, $4,508 and $4,448.
I believe Gold is in a bullish zone above $4,567. I also believe the prices for Gold will break the resistance at $4,661 and go to the bullish zone of $4,729 to $4,794. The RSI indicates the price of Gold is overbought, thus a consolidation in the bullish zone at $4,567 will not affect the bullish sentiment for Gold.
Gold has been a major beneficiary of the latest dollar-debasement narrative, hitting fresh multi-month highs in Asian trade on Monday. But tentative signs the US dollar may be trying to bottom ahead of an expected fiscal update from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provide a warning for bullion bulls that near-term reversal risks may be growing.
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ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey highlights that Gold has rebounded from its July lows near $4,000/oz to around $4,600/oz, supported by renewed investment demand, a weaker Dollar and mounting concerns over the US fiscal outlook. She notes recovering ETF and central bank demand, but stresses that persistent US inflation and potential further Fed tightening remain key headwinds for Gold.
Fiscal concerns and demand support prices"Gold has climbed from around $4,000/oz in mid-July to around $4,600/oz, returning to levels last seen in May."
"In our view, gold's resilience suggests that the rally is not simply a response to lower yields. The prospect of larger Treasury buybacks has refocused attention on government borrowing and fiscal credibility. It has also revived concerns about currency debasement, reinforcing gold's appeal as a store of value."
"A weaker dollar and lower short-term yields have helped gold rebound after prices found support around $4,000/oz in mid-July. Softer US data have also revived expectations that the Fed could begin easing policy in 2027."
"The improvement in ETF demand is another positive signal. Global gold-backed ETFs attracted $3bn in July, lifting their holdings by 23 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council."
"Central banks also remain a significant source of demand. Reported net purchases reached 51 tonnes in June, taking the first-half total to 102 tonnes, with Poland and China leading the buying. We expect official-sector buying to continue supporting the market, but further gains will increasingly depend on whether Western investors maintain their renewed interest in gold."
"Our forecast of $4,150/oz for the fourth quarter (average price) assumes that persistent inflation keeps US monetary policy restrictive and prevents a sustained fall in yields. However, renewed ETF buying, a weaker dollar and mounting fiscal concerns are creating increasingly clear upside risks to our outlook."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-Dollar could extend its six-month high if Jackson Hole fails to revive Fed tightening bets and US payroll revisions deepen labour market concerns. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate stormed higher last week as markets were spooked by US debt concerns.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3661. Up around 0.9% from the start of last week’s session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.36445 (+0.01%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.16767 (-0.09%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.98453 (+0.05%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) came under heavy selling pressure this week, with the ‘Greenback’ nosediving as growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook undermined confidence in the currency.
This was sparked by warning signs from the US Treasury market, where elevated long-term borrowing costs prompted the Treasury to announce a significant expansion of its bond buyback programme.
Concerns over the US fiscal outlook were compounded by reports that America’s national debt had reached a new record high of $40tn.
While able to soar to new multi-month highs against the US Dollar, the Pound (GBP) performance against its other peers proved more turbulent amid a deluge of UK economic releases.
The data made for mixed reading, with a weak jobs report and rise in inflation leaving Sterling to struggle in the first half of the week as it clouded the outlook for the Bank of England (BoE).
Attempts to rebound in the latter half of the week also quickly ran out of steam as a sharp slump in retail sales dragged on the Pound, leaving it unable to capitalise on an otherwise encouraging set of flash PMI figures.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Jackson Hole and Payrolls Revision in the Spotlight Turning to the week ahead, there are a couple of key events which could infuse volatility into the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate next week.
First up is the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium.
Jackson Hole has traditionally been used by Fed Chairs to outline how the bank may shape monetary policy in the coming months, however, under Kevin Warsh, the Fed has moved to limit guidance, which may come as a disappointment to USD investors.
The other focus will be on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics annual revision to non-farm payrolls, which could place significant pressure on the 'Greenback' if the US labour market added fewer jobs than expected over the past twelve months.
Back in the UK, a lull in domestic releases means Sterling will likely take its cues from broader risk appetite and global market sentiment.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
