EUR/USD gains ground after posting losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1440 during the European hours on Monday. The currency pair holds just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped by the 50-day EMA, keeping the near-term tone cautiously bearish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that rebounds lack strong momentum even as price stabilizes slightly off recent lows. The daily chart technical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair is remaining slightly above the descending channel pattern, suggesting that while a bearish bias persists, immediate downside momentum is pausing as buyers defend the channel's upper boundary.
A successful break below the nine-day EMA of 1.1425 could pull EUR/USD back toward the descending channel and target the 13-month low of 1.1322, which was recorded on June 24. A break below this level could put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the area around the lower boundary of the descending channel at 1.1060.
On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the three-week high of 1.1472, reached on July 2, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.1521.
EUR/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.15%0.07%0.23%-0.10%0.19%-0.33%-0.02%EUR0.15%0.22%0.39%0.05%0.35%-0.14%0.15%GBP-0.07%-0.22%0.17%-0.17%0.15%-0.34%-0.04%JPY-0.23%-0.39%-0.17%-0.34%-0.04%-0.52%-0.20%CAD0.10%-0.05%0.17%0.34%0.31%-0.16%0.14%AUD-0.19%-0.35%-0.15%0.04%-0.31%-0.45%-0.14%NZD0.33%0.14%0.34%0.52%0.16%0.45%0.31%CHF0.02%-0.15%0.04%0.20%-0.14%0.14%-0.31% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.72 per troy ounce, down 1.92% from the $59.87 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.40% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.39 on Monday, up from 68.82 on Friday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate opens the new week around 2.3239 after slipping to its lowest level in almost two weeks, with the New Zealand Dollar continuing to outperform as markets respond to a more hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.323928 (-0.10%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.979635 (-0.06%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.576117 (-0.03%)
WEEKLY RECAP:
GBP/NZD drifted lower through the second half of last week after failing to hold above the 2.35 level.
Sterling remained broadly supported.
Markets continue to expect the Bank of England to proceed cautiously on interest rates despite signs that UK growth has moderated.
Recent UK inflation data remains above target, helping to underpin the Pound even as business surveys point to a softer economy.
In its latest FX briefing, ING noted that Sterling continues to trade primarily on domestic economic and political developments rather than broad US Dollar moves.
The New Zealand Dollar has strengthened.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets last week by raising the Official Cash Rate and signalling that inflation risks linked to the Middle East energy shock and a stronger domestic economy warranted a tighter policy stance.
Governor Anna Breman also highlighted evidence that the economic recovery is gathering momentum, supported by exports, tourism and improving business confidence.
MUFG said in its latest weekly outlook that New Zealand interest-rate expectations have shifted materially higher, with investors continuing to price additional tightening before year-end.
The improving outlook for the Kiwi Dollar has coincided with a broader recovery in global risk appetite, encouraging demand for higher-yielding currencies.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: China GDP and New Zealand Business Confidence in Focus For Pound Sterling, attention this week turns to Thursday's UK monthly GDP estimate for May, together with industrial production, manufacturing production and trade balance figures.
Stronger-than-expected data would reinforce confidence that the UK economy is proving more resilient than recent business surveys suggest.
For the New Zealand Dollar, the focus will be on Wednesday's Q2 NZIER Survey of Business Opinion, retail card spending, house price data and remarks from the RBNZ's Chief Economist.
Investors will also pay close attention to China's second-quarter GDP, industrial production and retail sales, given China's importance as New Zealand's largest export market.
A stronger Chinese growth report and another improvement in New Zealand business confidence would likely provide further support for the Kiwi Dollar.
However, if UK GDP surprises to the upside while Chinese data disappoints, GBP/NZD could rebound towards 2.35.
Weekly Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Last week, XAUUSD settled at $4,120.67, down $55.02 or -1.32%. This was one week after a closing price reversal bottom at $3,942.10 that didn’t pay off for bullish counter-trend buyers. The weak close last week could bring in the sellers this week.
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The nearest swing top is $4,891.54. Buyers would have to take out this level to change the trend to up. This is too far at this time and highly unlikely so we’re waiting for a tighter “W” pattern to form at lower levels to give us a better entry. A trade through $3,942.10 will negate the potentially bullish reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.
Some traders may prefer to use the 52-week moving average as their trend indicator, which is perfectly fine. It comes in at $4,286.02 at the start of the new week. At this time, XAUUSD is on the weak side of this indicator.
I haven’t seen a lot of traders taking offers lately, which is causing an upside momentum issue. They seem to be content with bidding or buying dips. They are searching for value.
One long-term range I’m watching is $2,536.85 from November 2024 to $5,602.23 from January 2026. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $4,069.54 to $3,707.82. In fact, the recent low at $3,942.10 fell inside this zone. Could the current consolidation around the 50% level at $4,069.54 mean that investors are recognizing value? The only way we’ll know is if buyers can recapture and sustain a rally over the 50-day MA, in my opinion.
I don’t think it’s that important to pick the exact bottom. Let the big-monied bidders do that, all you need to do is catch the turn at the right time.
Gold’s Rate Bid Lives or Dies With CPI The FOMC minutes killed upside momentum and CPI has to undo the damage or the selling resumes. June CPI reports Tuesday morning with every economist’s forecast well above 2%, and Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee that same afternoon. The Q&A starts while desks are still positioning off the CPI number. Gold needs a miss to the downside big enough that Warsh cannot dismiss it on live television. If inflation prints at consensus or hotter, he has the data behind him to stay hawkish. Slower growth, stickier inflation, a labor market refusing to crack. Nothing in that combination gives him a reason to open the door and gold loses the rate trade for the rest of July.
Crude running higher on the Hormuz closure compounds the problem independently. Iran closed the Strait, and every dollar oil adds while the Strait stays restricted resets inflation expectations forward regardless of what last month’s CPI showed. The fear money from the Middle East escalation is flowing into the dollar and the 10-year, not into gold. The conflict that would normally attract safe-haven buying into the metal is instead strengthening the two instruments working against it. That tells you the rate trade is running this market completely.
What to Watch The way I see it, gold’s week comes down to one afternoon. CPI prints Tuesday morning and Warsh testifies that same day. If the inflation number comes in soft and Warsh does not immediately push back in the Q&A, the rate bid comes back fast because the market is already positioned for the worst case. But if CPI prints at consensus or hotter, Warsh has no reason to give ground and gold loses the rate argument for the rest of the month.
Oil is the variable nobody can model. The Hormuz closure is repricing energy costs forward in real time and that math works against gold no matter what CPI says. A soft inflation print Tuesday morning means less if crude is $5 higher by Wednesday because the next print already has a problem built in.
EUR/USD opens the week around 1.1433. Investors continue to assess the situation in the Middle East, where uncertainty remains high. Oil prices corrected lower following a sharp rise at the start of the week, after reports that the United States and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations.
At the same time, fresh mutual strikes between the parties have heightened fears that the conflict could once again enter an escalation phase, leaving the prospects for maintaining the ceasefire uncertain.
Renewed hostilities have brought fears of a new inflation wave back to the market, supporting expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Markets currently estimate the probability of a rate hike in September at approximately 62%, up from 58% a week earlier, though this figure exceeded 70% mid-week.
Additional attention has been drawn to comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who noted that one of the key drivers of inflationary pressure in the United States remains demand growth, linked to developments in artificial intelligence technology.
The main event of the week will be the release of the US June consumer price index (CPI). Higher-than-expected figures would reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a tight policy stance, potentially supporting the dollar. Conversely, weaker-than-forecast CPI data would increase pressure on the US currency, as markets would begin to price in a softer monetary policy trajectory once again
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1410 level, currently extending down to 1.1388 and up to 1.1410. A consolidation range around this level is practically complete. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective wave developing to 1.1450, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open potential for a downward wave to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is above zero but pointing strictly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the trend to continue lower.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed the next growth wave to the 1.1412 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a range expansion down to 1.1366 and up to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above 50 and pointing strictly up to 80, before a subsequent decline to 20.
Conclusion EUR/USD is treading water at the start of the week as markets await key US inflation data that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East remains elevated, with conflicting signals-renewed peace talks on one hand and fresh military strikes on the other-keeping investors cautious. Inflation expectations have been reinforced by escalating tensions, pushing September rate hike probabilities higher despite a mid-week dip. Comments from NY Fed’s Williams on AI-driven demand as an inflation factor have added another dimension to the debate. All eyes are now on Wednesday’s CPI release: a stronger print could boost the dollar, while a weaker outcome would ease pressure on the euro. Technically, the bearish outlook for EUR/USD remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term.
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The US Dollar posts moderate gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday, yet with price action contained within the last two weeks’ trading range, and with the 0.8100 level capping bulls for now. The long wicks in the daily chart highlight a hesitant market, as investors ponder the impact of the latest US-Iran hostilities on the peace process.
US and Iran ramped up their reciprocal attacks over the weekend, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending Oil prices higher and pressuring global central banks to tighten their monetary policies. The US Dollar, however, is failing to draw support from the risk-off market mood so far.
Investors might be reluctant to place large USD longs ahead of the release of June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. This report is expected to frame the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh’s testimony to Congress, also due this week, which will provide further insight into the central bank's monetary policy plans.
USD/CHF trades at 0.8077, holding a mildly bullish near-term tone although it remains trapped within the last three weeks' range. The four-hour Relative Strength Index, around 52, and a slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint at modest upward momentum, although bulls are struggling to find acceptance above 0.8100.
Above that level, the year-to-date high, at 0.8134, and the August 2025 high, just above 0.8170, would be the next targets. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June rally, at 0.8000, would anticipate a deeper correction toward the June 18 low, and the 50% retracement in the 0.7980-0.7970 area ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, at 0.7925.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.20%0.02%0.26%-0.13%0.18%-0.35%-0.10%EUR0.20%0.23%0.46%0.07%0.39%-0.11%0.12%GBP-0.02%-0.23%0.26%-0.16%0.18%-0.32%-0.07%JPY-0.26%-0.46%-0.26%-0.40%-0.08%-0.58%-0.30%CAD0.13%-0.07%0.16%0.40%0.33%-0.15%0.10%AUD-0.18%-0.39%-0.18%0.08%-0.33%-0.46%-0.20%NZD0.35%0.11%0.32%0.58%0.15%0.46%0.26%CHF0.10%-0.12%0.07%0.30%-0.10%0.20%-0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD has slipped as renewed US-Iran tensions strengthened safe-haven demand for the US dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher. A break below 1.1370 could expose the pair to 1.1350 and 1.1300, while recovery attempts remain capped near the 1.1475 to 1.1500 area. US inflation data is the next major catalyst, with a hotter CPI reading likely to reinforce dollar strength and increase pressure on the euro. EUR/USD came under renewed selling pressure on Monday as fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran revived demand for the US dollar and lifted global energy prices.
The pair struggled to build on last week’s recovery and moved back toward the lower end of its recent range as investors prepared for the latest US Consumer Price Index report. Higher crude oil prices have added to inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates restrictive for longer.
The Dollar Index has recovered toward the 101.00 area after ending the previous week lower. For EUR/USD, the stronger greenback has brought the 1.1370 support level back into focus, with traders assessing whether the pair can stabilize or extend its decline toward 1.1350 and 1.1300.
Why Is EUR/USD Falling Today? The latest weakness in EUR/USD reflects a combination of geopolitical risk, higher oil prices and rising US bond yields.
Fresh attacks between the US and Iran over the weekend raised concerns about the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said the key waterway had been closed again, while Washington maintained that commercial traffic could continue.
The conflicting claims sent crude oil prices sharply higher and revived concerns that another energy shock could keep global inflation elevated.
Higher oil prices tend to support the US dollar during periods of market stress. They can also place additional pressure on the euro because the Eurozone relies heavily on imported energy, leaving the region more exposed to rising fuel costs.
US CPI Could Decide the Dollar’s Next Move The US inflation report is likely to become the most important driver for EUR/USD in the near term.
A stronger-than-expected CPI reading would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates or consider additional tightening later this year. That outcome would likely push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, increasing the risk of EUR/USD falling through its current support zone.
A softer inflation report would create a different setup. It could reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further and allow EUR/USD to recover some of its recent losses.
However, the impact of softer inflation could be limited if oil prices continue rising or geopolitical tensions worsen.
Euro Recovery Struggles Near 1.1500 EUR/USD recently recovered from lows around 1.1325 and moved above 1.1420, but the advance stalled before the pair could establish a sustained move through the 1.1475 to 1.1500 region.
That failure suggests sellers remain active whenever the euro approaches higher levels.
The pair now faces an important test around 1.1370. A clear move below that level would increase the likelihood of a decline toward 1.1350, followed by the June low near 1.1325. If selling pressure persists, the psychological 1.1300 level could become the next target.
On the upside, EUR/USD would need to recover above 1.1450 before challenging 1.1475 and 1.1500 again. A sustained break through 1.1500 would weaken the immediate bearish outlook and could support a broader recovery toward 1.1580.
ECB and Fed Policy Expectations Remain Divided Interest-rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic continue to shape the EUR/USD outlook.
The Federal Reserve remains focused on inflation after stronger energy prices complicated the outlook for consumer prices. Recent weakness in US employment reduced expectations of immediate tightening, but the latest geopolitical escalation has prevented markets from fully dismissing the possibility of another rate increase.
In Europe, softer core inflation has reduced expectations of further European Central Bank tightening. That leaves the euro with less policy support, particularly if US inflation remains elevated and Treasury yields continue climbing.
Comments from Federal Reserve and ECB officials will therefore remain important as traders look for any change in the policy outlook.
EUR/USD Outlook The near-term EUR/USD price forecast remains cautious as the pair struggles to hold its recent recovery.
The US dollar is benefiting from safe-haven demand, rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields, while the euro faces renewed pressure from Europe’s exposure to imported energy costs.
A break below 1.1370 would put 1.1350 and 1.1300 within reach. However, softer US inflation or an easing of Middle East tensions could weaken the dollar and help EUR/USD return toward 1.1450 and 1.1500.
For now, US CPI and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are likely to determine whether the pair stabilizes or begins another leg lower.
Why is EUR/USD falling today?
EUR/USD is falling as renewed US-Iran tensions increase safe-haven demand for the US dollar. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields have also strengthened expectations that US interest rates may remain elevated.
What are the key EUR/USD levels to watch?
The main support levels are 1.1370, 1.1350 and 1.1300. Resistance is located near 1.1450, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500.
How could US CPI affect EUR/USD?
A hotter US CPI reading could strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD lower by increasing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Softer inflation could weaken the greenback and support a euro recovery.
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is edging lower early Monday. The price action suggests sellers are eyeing the July 8 main bottom at $57.22 and the June 24 main bottom at $55.60. A trade through these levels will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through the last swing top at $63.28.
Looking at the bigger picture, XAG/USD is currently trading at the upper end of a long-term value zone at $60.835 to $46.48. The short-term retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53 is currently being tested.
With the main trend down, aggressive counter-trend traders have been trying for two weeks to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom. The last attempt is $57.22. If it fails then $55.60 could be retested.
The set-up is pretty simple according to the daily chart formation. Aggressive counter-trend traders have to come in strong enough to form a secondary higher bottom and strong enough to create the upside momentum needed to take out the swing top at $63.28. If they fail to do so then the market becomes vulnerable under $57.22 and $55.60.
Long-term investors may recognize this area as value so we may see stair-step selling instead of sharp plunges.
What to Watch The Middle East escalation is doing the damage indirectly. The oil rally is doing the damage and nothing on the calendar this week fixes it. CPI and PPI both report into a market where crude is already repricing inflation expectations forward, so even a cool number gets discounted before the ink dries. The dollar and yields are both running higher off the Middle East escalation and silver needs at least one of those to reverse. I don’t see where that reversal comes from while the Strait of Hormuz is closed and U.S. strikes continue.
The secondary higher bottom at $57.22 is the counter-trend play that matters. Holding it keeps $63.28 as the trigger for a trend change. Losing it opens $55.60 and the long-term value zone below, where the selling probably slows but the buying has to come from portfolios willing to sit through the rate pressure.
DAX opens lower amid tech weakness & renewed US-Iran tensions The DAX, along with its European peers, is opening lower as investors weigh a tech sell-off alongside a fresh escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which has pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns over inflation and the outlook for interest rates.
Technology stocks are under pressure following weakness across Asian chipmakers, with SK Hynix leading losses despite another strong set of sales figures from TSMC.
SK Hynix slumped 14% in Seoul trading after a strong Nasdaq debut on Friday, when its ADRs rose almost 13%. The reversal appears to reflect profit-taking after the recent rally and renewed concerns that AI-related valuations have become stretched.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) fell despite reporting another impressive quarter, with second-quarter revenue rising 36% year-on-year. June revenue alone jumped almost 68%, reinforcing the view that demand for AI chips remains exceptionally strong ahead of the company's earnings release.
The selloff in chip stocks highlights growing nerves surrounding the AI trade. Investors are no longer questioning AI demand but are becoming increasingly worried over the huge capex spending by major tech firms and that cloud companies could be over-investing in AI infrastructure before consumer or enterprise usage catches up. This could lead to a sudden reduction in future orders for chipmakers. The entire chip sector has been on a rollercoaster in recent weeks.
The Eurozone and German economic calendars are quiet today. Attention will turn to Germany's wholesale price index tomorrow, alongside the start of the U.S. earnings season and U.S. inflation data, both of which could drive market sentiment.
DAX forecast – technical analysis
The DAX has extended its recovery from the 21,860 low to a record high of 25,920 before easing back. The index continues to trade above its rising trendline, the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA, keeping the broader trend firmly bullish.
Should the rising trendline and the 25,000 psychological level continue to hold, buyers will look for a move towards 25,500 before targeting the record high at 25,920 and fresh highs beyond.
On the downside, a break below the 24,800 support zone, where the 50 SMA coincides with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 21,860–25,920 rally, could open the door towards the 200 SMA at 24,340. Below there, attention turns to the 24,000 support zone, which also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Gold falls amid hawkish Fed concerns & a stronger USD Gold is extending losses on Monday after posting a second consecutive weekly decline, as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes over the weekend lifted oil prices and revived concerns over inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer.
The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, with tensions in the Middle East escalating further. Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until further notice, sending oil prices around 4% higher on renewed supply concerns.
The prospect of higher energy prices has raised fears of another inflation shock, strengthening the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Higher Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar continue to reduce the appeal of non-yielding, U.S. dollar-denominated assets such as gold.
Attention now turns to tomorrow's U.S. CPI report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony, both of which could provide further clues on the outlook for interest rates and, in turn, gold. Hot inflation and hawkish commentary could pull Gold lower, espcially if oil continues to rise.
Gold forecast – technical analysis
Gold broke down from its symmetrical triangle pattern and fell below the 200 SMA before finding support around 3,940.
The price continues to trade below the 200 SMA and the falling trendline resistance, while the RSI remains below 50, keeping the technical outlook tilted to the downside.
Sellers will look for a break below 3,940 to expose 3,800, followed by the psychological 3,500 level.
Any recovery would first need to reclaim 4,200, where the July high meets the falling trendline resistance. A move above this level would bring 4,300, where the 50 SMA and horizontal resistance converge, into focus before attention turns to the 4,500 level and the 200 SMA.
Fragile rebounds across precious metals and major FX pairs face renewed risks from the latest developments around the Strait of Hormuz and this week's US CPI report. Key technical levels remain in focus to determine the next directional breakout.
Iran and the US exchanged strikes following the disruption of the ceasefire framework. The US launched strikes against Iran's key Hormuz gateway and military infrastructure. Iran launched strikes against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, including oil and LNG vessels. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is expected to testify on Wednesday following Tuesday's US CPI report. US CPI is expected to decline from 4.2% to 3.8%, in line with the more than 40% decline in crude oil prices from their yearly highs. Crude oil prices continue to hold a fragile bullish rebound following the latest strikes, within a broader selloff driven by oversupply risks, rising OPEC+ production quotas, and recovering Gulf production and exports. Latest analysis: Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Oversupply Risks Challenge WTI & Brent Despite Hormuz Tensions EUR/USD and gold are also holding fragile rebounds despite persistent US dollar strength, supported by lingering inflationary pressures stemming from the US-Iran conflict, reinforcing expectations for a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds above 101: EUR/USD continues to face bearish pressure below 1.1470. Gold continues to face bearish pressure below 4,200. EUR/USD Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Key points from this chart:
EUR/USD's monthly price action continues to test the multi-year resistance-turned-support zone between 1.1280 and 1.1300. This area aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2025-January 2026 advance. A breakdown below 1.1280 would expose the 1.1130-1.1000 region, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement converges with the upper boundary of the 2008-2025 descending channel, creating another potential major rebound zone. On the upside, a sustained move back above 1.1470, followed by 1.1600, would reinforce bullish continuation toward the key 1.1730-1.1800 resistance area. This zone could either trigger another major pullback or open the door for a rally toward levels last seen in 2021 and 2018 near 1.2300. These scenarios largely depend on whether the US dollar pulls back or breaks above its major resistance zone, as discussed in this video. USD/JPY Bulls Prepare for Major Move Higher?
Gold Price Outlook: Six-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Key points from the six-month chart:
Gold is testing a breakdown below the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 advance. A close below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near the 3,500-3,460 zone, which served as a five-month resistance area throughout 2025. Price action is also aligned with the trendline connecting consecutive highs between 2016 and 2025, a major resistance-turned-support level. This high-time-frame confluence zone could determine whether gold stages a major reversal or experiences a deeper decline. Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Key points from this chart:
Despite the high-time-frame support confluence, gold's daily price action remains capped below a descending trendline connecting lower highs since March 2026, maintaining an overall bearish bias. Price action is currently holding a fragile rebound, testing the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July decline. A move above 4,200 would shift focus toward: 4,300: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. 4,420: 50% Fibonacci retracement, which would mark a sustained bullish shift from the current bearish bias. As long as DXY strength persists, as discussed in this video, downside risks remain elevated across both EUR/USD and gold unless a change in monetary policy direction is confirmed and/or key resistance levels are reclaimed.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate opens the new week around 1.9271 after holding close to five-month highs, with Sterling remaining well supported while the Australian Dollar faces another busy week of domestic data and renewed scrutiny over China's economic outlook.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.927065 (-0.05%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.339 (-0.12%)
Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.694839 (-0.07%)
WEEKLY RECAP:
GBP/AUD spent much of last week consolidating just below the 1.93 level after a strong rally through June.
The Pound continued to outperform despite evidence that the UK economy is slowing.
Markets remain reluctant to price aggressive Bank of England easing while inflation stays above target, helping Sterling retain a yield advantage over several major currencies.
In its latest monthly outlook, MUFG said the Pound was among the strongest-performing G10 currencies through June, supported by resilient investor confidence and the fading inflation shock as oil prices retreated.
The Australian Dollar struggled to generate sustained demand.
Although global risk sentiment has improved following the easing of Middle East tensions, investors remain cautious over China's economic outlook, a key driver for Australian exports.
Reuters has reported that attention is now turning to China's second-quarter GDP and June activity data, with markets expecting slower growth after softer domestic demand and weaker investment. Those figures are likely to have an important bearing on the Australian Dollar this week.
In a recent client note, ING highlighted that Sterling is increasingly being driven by domestic developments, while commodity-linked currencies remain more exposed to changes in global growth expectations.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: China GDP and UK GDP in Focus For Pound Sterling, investors will watch Thursday's monthly UK GDP estimate for May, together with industrial production and trade balance figures. Stronger-than-expected data would reinforce the view that the UK economy has remained resilient despite softer business surveys.
For the Australian Dollar, the spotlight falls on China's second-quarter GDP, June retail sales and industrial production, all due on Wednesday. Stronger Chinese data would likely support the Australian Dollar by improving confidence in Australia's export outlook, while weaker figures could renew pressure on the currency.
Markets will also continue to monitor developments in commodity markets following the recent decline in oil prices and any fresh guidance from Reserve Bank of Australia officials after last week's policy decision.
If UK GDP surprises to the upside while Chinese growth data disappoints, GBP/AUD could retest resistance around 1.94.
However, stronger Chinese activity data and firmer commodity prices could allow the Australian Dollar to recover, pulling the pair back towards 1.90.
Gold – Chart The precious metal is currently trading around $4,059 on the 4-H chart. Alternating green and red bars tried to push through the symmetrical triangle’s resistance at roughly $4,091 while standing above the triple-bottom support near $3,959. On this chart, the bullish rejection wicks and rising lows reflect the absorption by buyers.
The 50-period EMA in blue, near $4,107, remains a major resistance to the upside. At a $4,059 price level, momentum is slightly on the neutral side, as signaled by the 40 reading on the RSI. The volume profile is also a great measure, with $4,000 to $4,091 being a very dense accumulation range.
The price range from the previous $4,597 highs is forming a downtrend channel, and the price is testing the $4,091 resistance point of the breakout. However, the price is also forming a higher lows pattern, and the Fibonacci’s confluence level also supports the short-term price.
Based on this technical outlook, I would consider a long position around $4,059, targeting $4,140, while placing a stop below $4,091.
Based on this technical outlook, I would consider a long position around $4,059, targeting $4,140, while placing a stop below $4,091.
Currencies Reflect Divergent Monetary Policies and Economic Fundamentals On July 13, the dollar, euro and pound will keep being defined by competing central bank stances and economic fundamentals. Latest FOMC meeting minutes saw a hint of a shift towards the hawkish side with some officials thinking rates might well be firmed up on the back of core inflation being too sticky, while risks from energy price volatility, and demand from artificial intelligence. The dollar is thus supported by the prospect of relatively restrictive monetary policy being sustained for a period of time. Strong underlying domestic demand and a status quo as a global reserve currency are key structural positives for the dollar.
Economy-wide growth across the euro zone is currently uneven, and is likely to remain so in the months following the ECB’s June rate increase to 2.25%. Different fiscal positions at the country level and heterogeneous inflation dynamics are key factors influencing monetary policy transmission in the euro zone. The euro currency remains susceptible to activity and wage data.
Sterling is facing a similar dilemma, as policymakers at the Bank of England juggle elevated service-sector inflation risks against signs of softer economic growth. Domestic fiscal and labour market policies are likely to continue playing a key role in the currency’s outlook as relative policy stances with the Fed and the ECB impact on exchange rates.
Key economic fundamentals remain divergent, with different paths in inflation dynamics, fiscal settings and underlying growth resilience, all of which will sustain two-way market risks for the three major currencies. External trade flows and capital movements will further differentiate the currency markets depending on which central bank can most easily maintain stability and growth.
DXY Holds $101.07 – Fib 0.618 Retest on 4h Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The USD index (DXY) was up slightly at $101.07 on the 4h timeframe chart. We can see from the 4h DXY chart that the mixed candles had just tested 0.618 Fib level near 100.31 after a strong breakout from the swing low at 97.67.
The bullish bodies with higher highs are confirming the buyer’s control, while still maintaining respect for the 4h chart 50-EMA near 101.02. We can also observe that the RSI sits near 55. Meanwhile, the volume profile identifies 100.59-101.06 as a significant breakout point.
Fib retracement implies the next resistance will come around 103.09 in the next few weeks. In short, the market remains decisively bullish in the 4h chart above 100.59 inside a well-defined ascending channel, confirming a higher high and a higher low formation to keep the buyers firmly in control.
Based on this technical outlook, I would consider a long position around $101.07, targeting $103.09, while placing a stop below $100.59.
GBP/USD Holds $1.3388 – EMA 50 Defense on 4h
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The British pound was trading near $1.3388 on the 4h timeframe chart. The mixed candles defending the 4h chart 50-EMA near 1.3360 were kicked off near the red MA around 1.337, according to the 4h GBP/USD price chart.
The bullish wicks represent buyers’ absorption around support levels, confirming higher lows are still in tact. The RSI sits near 51. The volume profile identifies 1.331-1.338 as a reliable pivot. We note that the resistance is located around 1.345-1.350.
The GBP/USD is maintaining a neutral-to-bearish structure at the 4h 1.345 EMA-50 as the price oscillates inside a sideways trading range. The higher lows indicate that the buyers remain on the sidelines, looking to buy at any pullback.
Based on the current technical outlook, I would consider a long position around 1.3388, targeting 1.345, with a stop below 1.325.
EUR/USD Holds $1.1440 – EMA 50 Defense on 4h EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The euro (EURUSD) was trading near $1.1440 on the 4h timeframe chart. The 4h EUR/USD chart shows that the mixed candles are defending the 4h chart 50-EMA near $1.1423 after the bears were kicked off near the $1.162 red MA. We see that the bullish wicks represent buyers’ absorption near support levels while the higher lows are being held on the 4h EUR/USD.
The RSI sits near 43. The volume profile confirms a reliable pivot around 1.140-1.150. The next resistance is located around 1.155-1.162. The EUR/USD price action remains neutral-bearish near the 1.150 EMA-50 on the 4h timeframe chart as the price trades inside the long-term downtrend. Higher lows keep the buyers engaged, as they enter at any dips in this zone.
Based on the current technical outlook, I would consider a long position around 1.1440, targeting 1.155, with a stop below 1.140.
The Euro (EUR) is trading practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after dropping about 2% over the past three weeks. Euro bulls remain subdued amid the risk-averse mood, but sellers are struggling to find acceptance below 0.8500.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are weighing heavily on the Euro, as higher Oil prices are pressuring the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike rates further in the context of sluggish economic growth.
The British Pound, by contrast, is showing resilience amid the US-Iran conflict and the political impasse in the UK. Investors have granted the benefit of the doubt to Andrew Burnham, who is expected to be nominated leader of the Labour Party on Friday and Prime Minister on July 20.
Technical Analysis: Bears are showing signs of exhaustion
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8520, trading within a descending wedge, yet with momentum indicators hinting at a fading bearish impulse and the four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) showing a bullish divergence as it trends toward the 50 midline. Beyond that, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line, in the same timeframe, hovers slightly above zero, adding to the case for a potential bullish correction.
On the downside, immediate support is located at Friday's low in the 0.8510 area, ahead of the wedge bottom, now around 0.8500. Below these levels, there is no clear support area ahead of the early June 2025 lows, in the area of 0.8420.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the descending trendline barrier, now around 0.8530, followed closely by a previous support-turned-resistance in the 0.8535 area. A confirmation above these levels would ease bearish pressure and shift the focus to the July 2, 3, and 6 highs, around 0.8570.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.08%0.12%0.34%0.05%0.32%-0.04%0.03%EUR-0.08%0.05%0.24%-0.03%0.25%-0.09%-0.04%GBP-0.12%-0.05%0.22%-0.08%0.22%-0.12%-0.04%JPY-0.34%-0.24%-0.22%-0.29%-0.01%-0.34%-0.25%CAD-0.05%0.03%0.08%0.29%0.29%-0.02%0.04%AUD-0.32%-0.25%-0.22%0.01%-0.29%-0.30%-0.25%NZD0.04%0.09%0.12%0.34%0.02%0.30%0.08%CHF-0.03%0.04%0.04%0.25%-0.04%0.25%-0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD gapped lower after briefly breaking above 1.3445, with momentum turning down and risks of a test below 1.3360, though 1.3320 is seen as distant for now. They judge that the advance from late last month has ended and expects a 1.3320–1.3445 range in coming weeks, with broader 1.3210–1.3655 levels on a 1–3 month view.
Pound advance seen losing steam"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, when GBP was at 1.3410, we indicated that “there is a chance for GBP to test the major resistance at 1.3445.” However, we were of the view that “a clear break above this level is unlikely.” We added, “support is at 1.3390.” While GBP rose more than expected to 1.3452, it then staged a sharp retreat to 1.3392 before closing largely unchanged at 1.3402 (-0.05%). Today, GBP gapped lower on the open. The rapid increase in momentum suggests GBP could break below 1.3360. The next support at 1.3320 is likely out of reach. Resistance is at 1.3390; a breach of 1.3410 would mean the immediate downward pressure has faded."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a positive GBP view since late last month (see annotations in the chart below). Last Thursday (09 Jul, spot at 1.3390), we highlighted that “while the risk remains on the upside, given that there has been no further increase in upward momentum, it is left to be seen if GBP can reach 1.3445.” After GBP rose to 1.3430, we highlighted on Friday (10 Jul, spot at 1.3410) that “upward momentum has strengthened somewhat, and should GBP break above 1.3445, the next level to watch is 1.3480.” The subsequent price movements did not quite turn out as expected. GBP broke above 1.3445 and printed a high of 1.3452 before dropping sharply. It continued to decline today. Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.3360 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely faded. To put it another way, the GBP advance from late last month has ended, and for the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range between 1.3320 and 1.3445."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
XAG/USD struggles for the second consecutive day, trading around $58.20 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the spot price is remaining within the descending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bearish bias.
The XAG/USD pair is extending a bearish near-term bias as price holds below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of shorter- and longer-term EMAs above spot suggests rallies remain capped, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 37 stays in bearish territory, hinting that downside pressure persists despite the recent bounce from the mid-$50s.
The price of the white metal could find immediate support at the seven-month low of $55.63, which was recorded on June 24. Further declines would put downward pressure on the XAG/USD pair to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel around $47.90.
On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of $59.80, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around $60.50. A break above the channel would support the XAG/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at $67.00.
XAG/USD: Daily Price(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades firmly against its major currency peers, but is flat at around 1.4160 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.
The Loonie outperforms as Oil prices have increased significantly, following the announcement that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of the global energy supply, again. As of writing, the WTI Oil price is up 3.75%, above $74.00. Given that Canada is a net energy exporter, higher oil prices bode well for the Canadian Dollar.
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.14%0.32%0.06%0.34%0.01%0.03%EUR-0.09%0.06%0.22%-0.03%0.26%-0.04%-0.04%GBP-0.14%-0.06%0.17%-0.10%0.22%-0.08%-0.06%JPY-0.32%-0.22%-0.17%-0.27%0.03%-0.27%-0.23%CAD-0.06%0.03%0.10%0.27%0.30%0.02%0.04%AUD-0.34%-0.26%-0.22%-0.03%-0.30%-0.26%-0.24%NZD-0.01%0.04%0.08%0.27%-0.02%0.26%0.03%CHF-0.03%0.04%0.06%0.23%-0.04%0.24%-0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Over the weekend, Iran announced that the Hormuz would now be closed “until further notice”, as part of retaliation against several attacks from United States (US) military forces on various regions in Iran.
While the Canadian currency outperforms its major peers, it trades sideways against the US Dollar, as the safe-haven demand for the latter has improved amid renewed aggression in the Middle East. In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% higher to near 101.10.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy announcement.
USD/CAD technical analysis
USD/CAD trades at 1.4163, holding a constructive near-term bias as it trades above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4139. The pair is consolidating near recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 62 has eased out of overbought territory on the daily chart, suggesting the latest pause is more a cooldown than a clear reversal at this stage.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 1.4139, which coincides with the November 2025 high that used to be a major resistance for the pair earlier; below that, the June 18 low at 1.4095 is the key support zone. On the upside, the pair could revisit its yearly high at 1.4248 if it breaks above 1.4200.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate climbed over the past week, briefly reaching a three-week high as Sterling remained well supported despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3417, up around 0.5% on the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.338855 (-0.13%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.140619 (-0.08%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 161.71495 (+0.01%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) traded unevenly last week as renewed tensions in the Middle East created periods of safe-haven demand, although the currency struggled to hold onto its gains for long.
The 'Greenback' opened the week on a mixed footing, briefly finding support as US markets reopened after the Independence Day holiday before retreating as improving risk appetite reduced demand for the safe-haven currency.
Fresh attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz then boosted USD on Tuesday, as fears of a wider regional conflict prompted investors to seek safer assets.
However, the US Dollar lost momentum in the second half of the week. Despite escalating US-Iran tensions, resilient market sentiment limited demand for the safe-haven currency, while the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes offered little fresh policy guidance.
USD briefly fell to a three-week low against the Pound on Friday, although it recovered some ground before the close as trading remained volatile.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) continued to strengthen over the past week as traders further reduced the political risk premium attached to Sterling following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation three weeks ago.
Sterling’s strong performance highlights the extent to which prolonged political uncertainty had been holding back the UK currency. With Andy Burnham now widely expected to replace Starmer through a smooth transition of power, confidence in the UK’s political outlook has continued to improve, providing additional support for the Pound.
The Pound also benefited from rising expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will increase interest rates. Escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, leading markets to price in a greater chance of another BoE rate hike.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK GDP and US CPI in Focus Looking ahead, the spotlight for Pound investors this week will be Thursday’s UK GDP release. Economists expect the British economy to have returned to growth in May, with a modest 0.1% expansion forecast, which may provide Sterling with some support.
That said, the GDP figures are only likely to trigger a more pronounced reaction if they come in notably above or below expectations, potentially prompting sharp moves in the Pound.
Politics may also remain on investors’ radar. Andy Burnham could be officially confirmed as Labour leader on Friday if no other valid candidates enter the race. A smooth and orderly handover is likely to be viewed positively by markets, which could offer additional support to Sterling.
Meanwhile, the focus for USD investors will be the latest US consumer price index on Tuesday. If inflation cooled in June, as expected, the ‘Greenback’ could drop.
That said, fresh tensions in the Middle East could sour the market mood and lift USD.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has slipped after testing 1.1460, with increasing downward momentum but major support at 1.1360 seen as difficult to reach near term. For the coming 1–3 weeks, they expect EUR/USD to remain in a 1.1360–1.1450 range. On a multi‑week view, a break of the 1.1390/1.1410 support zone would target 1.1210.
Euro seen confined in set band"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR rose to a high of 1.1449 last Thursday. When it was at 1.1430 on Friday, we highlighted the following: “The slight increase in upward momentum suggests EUR may retest 1.1450. A continued rise above this level is unlikely. Support is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1405 would mean that the prevailing mild upward pressure has eased.” We were not wrong, as EUR rose to 1.1460 and then dropped back down to 1.1410. EUR closed at 1.1413, but it opened with a slight gap down this morning. While the increasing downward momentum suggests EUR could decline further, the major support at 1.1360 could be out of reach. Note that there is another support level at 1.1375. To sustain the downward momentum, EUR must hold below 1.1420, with minor resistance at 1.1405."
"Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (09 Jul, spot at 1.1420), when we highlighted that EUR “has likely moved back into a range-trading phase, expected to be between 1.1360 and 1.1450.” After EUR rose to 1.1449, we highlighted on Friday that “although EUR subsequently rose to 1.1449, there has been no clear increase in upward momentum.” We also highlighted that “looking ahead, with momentum remaining flat, a break above 1.1450 is likely to result in a broader trading range rather than a sustained move higher.” Although EUR subsequently rose above 1.1450 with a high of 1.1460, it retreated from the high. The price action still appears to be part of a range-trading phase, and for the time being, we continue to expect EUR to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate extended its recent rally last week, with Sterling repeatedly climbing to fresh one-year highs as fading UK political uncertainty and diverging central bank expectations continued to favour the Pound.
At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1741, close to its highest level since June 2025 and up around 0.6% on the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.173789 (-0.05%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.339 (-0.12%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.14075 (-0.06%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) extended its recent bullish run last week, as markets continued to unwind the political risk premium in GBP following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer three weeks ago.
Sterling’s impressive gains show just how heavily months of political uncertainty had been weighing on the UK currency. With it now looking almost certain that Andy Burnham will succeed Starmer with an orderly transition of power, renewed confidence has continued to lift the Pound.
GBP also drew support from growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates. Fresh tensions in the Middle East triggered a spike in oil prices, which in turn prompted a rise in BoE rate hike bets.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) found itself exposed to losses through the first half of the week, as the common currency suffered from its strong negative correlation with the rising US Dollar (USD).
This outweighed some positive German economic data, with factory orders and industrial production in the Eurozone’s largest economy both exceeding forecasts in May.
The Euro tried to put up a fight on Thursday, with a softening US Dollar providing EUR with fleeting support.
However, the single currency continued to refresh one-year lows against the Pound throughout the week.
Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: UK GDP in Focus Looking forward, the focus for GBP investors this week will be the UK’s latest GDP figures on Thursday. Markets expect the British economy to have recovered by 0.1% in May, which could offer GBP modest support.
However, more notable movement in Sterling is only likely if the GDP data beats or misses forecasts, in which case we could see big swings in the Pound.
Meanwhile, UK politics could continue to influence the currency. Andy Burnham could be formally confirmed as Labour leader on Friday, if no other valid candidates are nominated. This could underpin the Pound, if markets welcome the smooth, swift transition of power.
As for the Euro, an expected rise in Eurozone industrial production in May could support the single currency on Wednesday.
EUR could then face some pressure on Friday, if the Eurozone’s final consumer price index confirms that inflation cooled in June.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,042.01 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,164.10 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,800.48 per tola from PHP 95,224.48 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,042.01
10 Grams
80,420.83
Tola
93,800.48
Troy Ounce
250,134.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 489.84 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 497.35 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,713.50 per tola from SAR 5,801.03 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
489.84
10 Grams
4,898.52
Tola
5,713.50
Troy Ounce
15,235.74
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 532.01 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 540.62 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,204.98 per tola from MYR 6,305.65 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
532.01
10 Grams
5,319.86
Tola
6,204.98
Troy Ounce
16,547.35
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,486.07 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,683.20 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,633.80 per tola from INR 147,934.30 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,486.07
10 Grams
124,863.60
Tola
145,633.80
Troy Ounce
388,366.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.25 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid a renewed push by Japanese authorities for the nation’s massive public pension funds to increase allocations to domestic assets.
"The pension funds are pretty large in size (and) currently, 50 per cent is allocated to foreign investments in their strategic allocation, (so) a shift in that would definitely create a lot more inflows for domestic assets," said Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG. "That's supportive of the currency and at the same time, also supportive of equities and bonds,” Yip added.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a mildly bearish bias as it slips under the Bollinger middle band and consolidates just above the lower half of the recent range. The 20-day Bollinger envelope now caps price action, while the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) around 112.59 remains an underlying trend reference, suggesting that recent weakness is still occurring within a broader uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (14) has eased to about 47, hinting at fading upside momentum without yet indicating oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band near 112.35, with further upside barriers seen at the upper Bollinger band around 113.52. On the downside, a move below the recent band floor near 111.15 would expose deeper corrective risk, with the broader trend still anchored by the longer-term 100-day SMA acting as an important demand area on pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,361.68 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,948.56 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 424,117.10 per tola from PKR 430,960.80 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,361.68
10 Grams
363,619.90
Tola
424,117.10
Troy Ounce
1,130,976.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
USD/JPY gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 162.00 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency pair is keeping a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
Additionally, the daily technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY pair is remaining within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bullish bias. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back toward the mid-50s, suggesting the latest consolidation is working off previous overbought conditions without yet undermining the broader uptrend.
The USD/JPY pair could find initial resistance at the 40-year high of 162.84, which was reached on July 1, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 164.00.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 161.98, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 160.80, followed by the 50-day EMA at 160.58. A break below the channel would expose the four-month low of 155.04, recorded on May 6.
USD/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.10%0.14%0.18%0.00%0.31%0.06%0.04%EUR-0.10%0.03%0.07%-0.10%0.22%-0.00%-0.04%GBP-0.14%-0.03%0.07%-0.14%0.20%-0.03%-0.03%JPY-0.18%-0.07%-0.07%-0.18%0.14%-0.08%-0.08%CAD-0.01%0.10%0.14%0.18%0.32%0.12%0.11%AUD-0.31%-0.22%-0.20%-0.14%-0.32%-0.18%-0.19%NZD-0.06%0.00%0.03%0.08%-0.12%0.18%-0.01%CHF-0.04%0.04%0.03%0.08%-0.11%0.19%0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 478.83 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 486.56 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,584.80 per tola from AED 5,675.10 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
478.83
10 Grams
4,788.16
Tola
5,584.80
Troy Ounce
14,893.21
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) opens with a modest bearish gap at the start of a new week and slides back closer to the $4,050 level during the Asian session. A further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, lifts crude oil prices and revives inflation fears. This, in turn, bolsters expectations of elevated interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which benefits the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and drives flows away from the bullion.
The US unleashed a major round of strikes on Iran over the weekend, while Iran responded with missile attacks on US military bases in the Gulf. Adding to this, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired at another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and announced the closure of the critical waterway. This adds a layer of uncertainty to global energy markets and triggers a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices, fueling concerns about energy-driven inflationary pressures and reaffirming bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a Fed rate hike by the end of this year. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, assisting the buck to build on its bounce from over a one-week low, touched on Friday, and exerting downward pressure on the non-yielding Gold. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for more cues about the US central bank's policy path. Hence, the focus will be on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony later this week.
Furthermore, traders will take cues from the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), due on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The crucial inflation figures will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of the XAU/USD bears, suggesting that any move higher is more likely to be sold into and remain capped.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold’s bearish technical setup backs the case for a further depreciationFrom a technical perspective, the commodity remains well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and maintains a bearish bias within a downward-sloping parallel. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 40, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, although it has eased from recent highs, is mildly positive. This suggests only a modest downside momentum.
In the meantime, the first notable support is aligned with the $4,000 psychological mark ahead of the year-to-date low, around the $3,942 region. A convincing break below would expose the channel’s lower boundary, currently around $3,782.83, where buyers could attempt to stabilize the decline if selling pressure intensifies. On the topside, immediate resistance comes at the channel top near $4,291.51, with a break above this barrier needed to ease the current bearish tone. However, the 200-day SMA at roughly $4,494.65 stands as a more formidable resistance zone that would need to be reclaimed to signal a more durable bullish reversal.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
USD/JPY and the U.S. Dollar Index are approaching critical technical levels. Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, explains why the Dollar Index holding above 100 could fuel a major USD/JPY breakout toward 170 and beyond, while identifying the key support levels that could instead trigger a bearish reversal for both the dollar and the yen.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 184.65 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency.
Furthermore, speculation over domestic asset shifts could underpin the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR). Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the government is pursuing measures that would include the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) to make "substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets. Analysts said this move could offer greater support to the battered currency than intervention.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a mildly bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle line. The pair is drifting in the lower half of the recent volatility envelope, with the lower Bollinger band acting as the next downside reference, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.6 hovers just under the neutral 50 line, hinting at subdued, consolidative downside pressure rather than a strong trend.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges in the 184.80-184.85 zone, representing the Bollinger 20-day middle band and the 100-day SMA. A daily close above this clustered band would be needed to ease the current downside bias and expose the upper Bollinger band near 186.12. On the downside, the first notable support is the lower Bollinger band at 183.53, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline; a break below this level would reinforce the bearish bias and open the door to a deeper corrective slide.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The Euro (EUR) holds opening losses at around 1.1390 against the US Dollar (USD) during the mid-Asian trading session on Monday. The major currency pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar starts the week on a strong note due to an increase in the appeal of safe-haven assets.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 101.15.
Escalating military actions between the United States (US) and Iran over Tehran showing dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, have forced investors to shift to the safe-haven fleet and have de-anchored inflation expectations.
To get cues regarding the current status of US inflation, investors will pay close attention to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Tuesday.
This week, investors will also focus on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s two-day testimony before Congress starting on Tuesday.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1390, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1443 and a breakdown of the Bearish Flag formation.
The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 38, hinting at persistent but not extreme downside momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the lower boundary of the parallel channel near 1.1424, followed by the 20-period EMA at 1.1443, with the channel top around 1.1530 acting as a stronger cap if a rebound extends. On the downside, major support levels are the June 24 low at 1.1324, followed by 1.1300.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Risk sentiment FAQs In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Crude oil prices rose at the start of the week after President Trump said the ceasefire was over and fighting had started again. Stock markets fell, while USD/JPY moved back toward recent highs. Later in the week, the U.S. agreed to continue talks with Iran, which caused oil prices to fall again.
There was little major economic data during the week, so markets focused on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The minutes showed that a few officials thought interest rates could be raised, but they still supported keeping rates unchanged. This was close to what markets expected, so the reaction was limited.
In Japan, Finance Minister Katayama said the government may encourage the GPIF and other pension funds to invest more in Japanese assets. She also spoke about gradual interest rate rises and more government bond products for households. These comments supported the yen and Japanese stocks, while higher-than-expected producer prices showed that inflation remains a concern.
Markets This Week U.S. Stocks The Dow fell from record highs early in the week as oil prices rose after fighting restarted in the Middle East. However, the uptrend stayed in place as the U.S. and Iran continued talks, helping the index close above its 10-day moving average. Buying short-term dips may remain the easier strategy, although higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data could create a chance to sell this week. Resistance levels are at 53,000, 53,500 and 54,000. Support is seen at 52,000, 51,000, 50,000, 49,500 and 49,000.
Japanese Stocks The Nikkei continued to move lower as investors took profits and higher oil prices worried the market. However, the index recovered late in the week after Finance Minister Katayama encouraged more investment in Japanese stocks. With selling pressure still strong near 70,000, range trading may remain the best approach this week. Resistance is seen at 70,000, 71,000, 72,000, 73,000, 74,000 and 75,000, while support is at 67,500, 66,500 and 65,000.
USD/JPY USD/JPY tested recent highs early in the week as oil prices moved higher. The pair then fell after the Japanese government called for pension funds to invest more in domestic assets, raising the possibility of less investment overseas. The close below the 10-day moving average is bearish, but higher U.S. interest rates should continue to support the pair unless Japanese authorities intervene. Range trading still appears to offer the best opportunities in the short and medium term. Resistance is at 162.00, 162.50, 163.00 and 165.00, while support is seen at 161.00, 160.50, 160.00, 159.00, 158.00, 157.00, 156.00, 155.50 and 155.00.
Gold Gold struggled to move higher early in the week as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the market. Prices later returned to the 10-day moving average, which provided support. With U.S. inflation data due this week, gold may stay volatile, creating range-trading opportunities between $4,000 and $4,200. Resistance is at $4,200, $4,300, $4,400, $4,500, $4,600 and $4,665, while support is at $4,100, $4,050, $4,000, $3,900, and $3,800.
Crude Oil Oil rose quickly after President Trump announced renewed fighting with Iran, but the market still expects a positive result from negotiations. Resistance held near $75, and although the recent downtrend has ended, large gains still look unlikely. Range trading between $67.50 and $75 may be the best short-term strategy. Resistance is at $75, $80, $85, $90, $95 and $100, while support is at $67.50, $65, and $60.
Bitcoin Bitcoin continued its recent recovery as buyers returned to the market. Resistance held near $65,000 and volatility remained low, but with the 10-day moving average now rising, buying on weakness may be a better strategy than range trading this week. Resistance is at $65,000, $75,000, $80,000, $85,000, and $90,000, while support is at $60,000, $55,000 and $50,000.
This Week’s Focus Monday: U.S. OPEC Meeting Tuesday: Australia NAB Business Confidence, Japan Industrial Production, China Trade Balance, U.S. CPI Wednesday: Japan Reuters Tankan Index, China GDP, Industrial Production and Chinese Unemployment Rate, E.U. Industrial Production, U.S. PPI and Beige Book Thursday: U.K. GDP and Industrial Production, E.U. Trade Balance, U.S. Retail Sales and Pending Home Sales Friday: E.U. Current Account and CPI, U.S. Housing Starts, Industrial Production and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Several important U.S. reports are due this week, including CPI, PPI, retail sales and consumer confidence. Traders will watch them for clues about when U.S. interest rates may rise. News about talks between the U.S. and Iran will also be important for oil and other markets, while traders will watch for more action from Japan to support the yen.
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EUR/USD started a recovery wave and climbed to test 1.1450. A rising channel or a possible bearish pennant is forming with resistance at 1.1500 on the 4-hour chart. GBP/USD recovered and tested the 1.3450 resistance. WTI Crude Oil prices struggled to stay above $75.00 and trimmed gains. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro recovered some losses and climbed above 1.1420 against the US Dollar. However, EUR/USD seems to be facing hurdles near 1.1475 and 1.1500.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair failed to clear the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1622 swing high to the 1.1324 low. It also struggled to settle above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and remained well below the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find support near 1.1380. The first major support could be near 1.1350. A downside break and close below 1.1350 might send the pair toward 1.1325. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1280.
On the upside, the bears might remain active near 1.1475. The next major resistance might be 1.1500. There is also a rising channel or a possible bearish pennant forming with resistance at 1.1500.
A close above the channel resistance could decrease selling pressure. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1580.
Looking at GBP/USD, the pair recovered some losses, tested the 1.3450 resistance, and now shows some signs of consolidation.
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Cable moves within a narrow-range sideways mode for the second consecutive day, after 1% advance last week that completed reversal pattern on weekly chart (after the downleg from 1.3869 was contained by ascending trendline, drawn off 1.0348, 2022 low) and generated positive signal on close above weekly Ichimoku cloud top (1.3335).
On the other side, the picture on daily chart is not that optimistic (14-d momentum remains in negative territory and turns south, stochastic is emerging from overbought territory) as long upper shadows on last two daily candles point to strong headwinds from very significant 1.3400 resistance zone (consisting of converged 200/100/55DMAs / 50% retracement of 1.3653/1.3140 / daily cloud base).
The second consecutive daily Doji candle signals strong indecision and risk of further hesitation and possible recovery stall on approach to pivotal 1.3400 resistance zone.
More likely scenario in the near term would be dips towards 1.3300 zone (psychological / 20DMA) which needs to contain dips and keep in play hopes for fresh acceleration higher and possible attack at 1.3400 zone barriers.
Conversely, firm break of 1.3300 handle would further weaken near-term structure and risk deeper drop.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The AUD/USD pair builds on its modest weekly bearish gap opening and retreats further from a two-and-a-half-week top, near the 0.6970 region, touched on Friday. Spot prices drop to the 0.6930-0.6925 area during the Asian session as escalating US-Iran tensions underpin the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).
Furthermore, a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices revives inflationary concerns and bolsters US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which provide an additional boost to the Greenback. However, a bullish technical setup warrants caution before confirming that the AUD/USD pair's recent recovery from a multi-month low, touched in June, has run out of steam.
From a technical perspective, the currency pair stays above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains marginally positive, hinting at a mild recovery and validating the positive outlook.
That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 still reflects only a tentative improvement from recently weak momentum. Furthermore, the recent repeated failures to break through the 38.2% Fibo. The level warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair as the market focus shifts to the latest US inflation figures this week.
In the meantime, immediate support is reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 0.6878, ahead of the 50.0% retracement level at 0.6849. A deeper protection emerges at the 61.8% Fibo. level around 0.6747, where buyers would be expected to reassert themselves on a more meaningful pullback.
On the flip side, a sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6951 is needed to back the case for additional gains towards the 23.6% retracement near 0.7077, which, if cleared, would give way to unlock a more decisive advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%0.16%0.23%0.07%0.26%-0.07%0.16%EUR-0.18%-0.01%0.04%-0.11%0.09%-0.21%-0.00%GBP-0.16%0.01%0.07%-0.10%0.14%-0.18%0.05%JPY-0.23%-0.04%-0.07%-0.16%0.04%-0.26%-0.01%CAD-0.07%0.11%0.10%0.16%0.20%-0.08%0.15%AUD-0.26%-0.09%-0.14%-0.04%-0.20%-0.26%-0.03%NZD0.07%0.21%0.18%0.26%0.08%0.26%0.24%CHF-0.16%0.00%-0.05%0.01%-0.15%0.03%-0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $4,070 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends its decline amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Traders will take more cues from the release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due on Tuesday.
The US military said that it launched additional strikes against Iran on Sunday aimed at further weakening the Islamic Republic’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a social media post that the strikes were designed to limit Iran’s ability to attack civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ongoing missile strikes between Washington and Tehran have boosted energy costs, triggering fresh inflation concerns and forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
The US CPI inflation data will take center stage on Tuesday. Analysts expect the headline CPI to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. If the report shows a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the US dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7972 compared to Friday's fix of 6.7989 and 6.7850 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $59.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. The price of the non-yielding white metal falls as escalating United States (US)-Iran missile strikes push oil higher, sparking fears of inflation and higher interest rates.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched additional strikes on Sunday evening, aimed at weakening Iran's capability to target civilian vessels navigating the waterway. US forces have hit more than 300 Iranian targets over a three-night span, including 140 on Saturday alone, while Washington and Tehran issued conflicting declarations regarding whether the strait remains open to maritime traffic.
This latest surge in hostilities has effectively reversed a portion of the market losses recorded last week, which had been driven by an interim US-Iran peace agreement that initially fueled expectations of increased Middle Eastern energy supplies. The sudden military escalation has also severely dampened hopes for continued diplomacy. Tehran is now digging in, insisting that Washington must fully honor its previous commitments regarding shipping transit and the normalization of Iranian oil exports before any further negotiations can resume.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be published later on Tuesday for further clues on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook. The headline CPI is expected to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period.
Markets are currently positioning for the Federal Reserve to deliver one more interest-rate increase before the year concludes. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as he makes his first official appearance before the US Congress this Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The EUR/USD pair edges lower to around 1.1400 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank Governor Christopher Waller and European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Isabel Schnabel are set to speak later in the day.
The US military said that it launched another round of strikes at Iran over the weekend, per CNN. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) then launched retaliatory drone and missile assaults on US allies across the Middle East, including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned US military attacks on Iran, accusing Washington of violating international law and warning neighboring countries not to assist any military action against the country. Another escalation in the diplomatic breakdown between the US and Iran could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.
Traders have ramped up their bets on ECB hikes again in recent days on signs that an agreement between Washington and Tehran to end the war is in jeopardy. The ECB raised the interest rates at the June policy meeting and markets expect it to do so twice more over the next year to contain the fallout from the Iran war on energy prices.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be published later on Tuesday. The headline CPI is expected to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. Any signs of softening inflation in the US could reduce pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates, weighing on the USD.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The EUR/USD ended the week on the back foot, surrendering its earlier poise during Friday’s session. From mid-week until that point, the pair had displayed a rather unexpected degree of composure, even as tensions in the Middle East flared up again. A sharp rebound in crude oil swiftly changed the market narrative by mid-week, herding investors back into cautious, defensive trades. By the final stages, however, the mood had darkened.
All eyes on US-Iran tensions again At the weekend, there was further escalation of tensions. The US initiated a new series of airstrikes in Iran after the IRGC forces targeted a vessel navigating the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway, crucial for global oil shipments, has now been declared closed by IRGC until further notice, and launched attacks on American military bases and their regional allies.
Retaliation from Tehran was inevitable, and one can easily imagine the situation spiralling quite rapidly. Of course, rhetoric can soften. We’ve seen that movie before.
But for now, traders are forced to assume the worst. That means the dollar continues to benefit from its dual role as both a high-yielder and a safe harbour, while the euro—particularly vulnerable given Europe’s energy import dependency—remains on the back foot. Stagflation fears, never far from the surface, are once again creeping back into the conversation.
CPI and Warsh Take Centre Stage Geopolitics aside, this week’s calendar is anything but quiet. All eyes turn to Wednesday’s US CPI release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony. With energy prices now firmly elevated, the inflation data takes on added significance. The risk skew is clearly tilted toward a hotter print, which would reinforce the narrative that the Fed may need to keep rates restrictive for longer—or even hike again later this year.
If that scenario plays out, expect US Treasury yields to push higher, further widening the interest rate differential that has been one of the dollar’s strongest pillars.
Technical EUR/USD outlook and levels to watch On the charts, the picture remains cautious. EUR/USD is carving out what looks increasingly like a bear flag on the daily timeframe—a continuation pattern that suggests the recent consolidation is just a pause before another leg lower.
Key levels to watch: Support: The 1.1400 zone remains the immediate line in the sand. A clean break below could open the door to 1.1300 fairly quickly. Resistance: On the upside, 1.1450 continues to cap rallies. A move above that would shift focus to 1.1500, with 1.1575 as the next meaningful hurdle. For now, the path of least resistance still points south.
The Bottom Line Unless we see a meaningful shift in the fundamental landscape—be it a sharp drop in oil prices, or a string of weak US data—the dollar’s yield advantage and safe-haven status are likely to keep any EUR/USD rallies well-contained. The near-term bias remains cautiously bearish, with geopolitics and inflation data set to dictate the next move.
The Australian dollar enters the week on uncertain footing after its recent recovery began to lose momentum. Australian consumer and business sentiment will be monitored, but the spotlight falls on Tuesday's US CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony. While CPI is likely to drive markets, traders will also be listening for any fresh policy signals from Warsh. Futures positioning, options markets and yield spreads point to growing downside risks, although a stronger US dollar may still be needed to trigger a meaningful move lower in AUD/USD.
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Australian Business or Consumer Sentiment Unlikely to Shift the RBA I see a lot of data points, but only one or two with real substance. Australian consumer and business sentiment will be worth monitoring, but unless they deteriorate sharply, they are unlikely to be enough for the RBA to abandon its hawkish bias. While business confidence plunged back in March after the RBA’s tightening cycle began, negativity has eased across all industries and the headline figure has recouped around half of its losses from -29 to -14.
The main focus will, of course, be Tuesday's US inflation report. With inflation already expected to rise, the key question is whether the pace of the increase slows. ISM Services Prices Paid edged higher from already elevated levels, and a similar trend has emerged in recent CPI and PPI data. Producer prices and retail sales are also released on Wednesday and Thursday, although their impact will likely depend on whether Tuesday's CPI delivers any surprises.
US CPI Headlines a Busy Week for the US Dollar Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress will also be on traders' radar, although it may struggle to compete with US CPI for market attention. As this is one of his first major appearances as Fed chair, markets will be listening for clues on his policy stance and communication style. Unless he signals a meaningful shift in the Fed's outlook for inflation or interest rates, his remarks are unlikely to trigger a sustained move in the US dollar.
China's data dump, alongside Q2 GDP on Tuesday, also warrants a look. However, these releases have had little meaningful impact on global markets or the Australian dollar for some time.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report Net-short exposure continued to rise for a fourth consecutive week, although the move was driven primarily by a reduction in long positions rather than a surge in fresh short selling. The 7k increase in net-short exposure among large speculators lifted their bearish positioning to a 30-week high of 25.2k contracts. Asset managers, meanwhile, reduced their net-short exposure by 1.9k contracts.
While neither group is positioned near a sentiment extreme, neither appears especially bearish either. AUD/USD posted another modest bullish week following its extended selloff, and with markets entering one of the quieter periods of the year, volatility is likely to remain subdued unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.
AUD/USD Correlations
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Risk Reversals Turn Bearish as Yield Spread Weakens The downtrend on the daily chart remains intact, and bulls already appear to be losing momentum after a modest bounce from just below the 69c handle. Friday's bearish shooting star candle fell short of both the June 11 low (0.6979) and the monthly pivot point (0.6990), suggesting AUD/USD may be nearing the end of a three-wave countertrend bounce around its 20-day EMA.
Risk reversals have begun to turn lower, indicating that demand for puts is rising relative to calls. While they remain elevated relative to AUD/USD prices, the move points to a subtle shift in sentiment among options traders against the Aussie. More importantly, the AU-US two-year yield spread has turned lower and appears on the brink of breaking to a new cycle low. This could prove significant, as the spread led the top in AUD/USD by a couple of weeks.
While this paints a more bearish near-term picture for AUD/USD, a fresh catalyst and a notable rise in the US dollar may still be required before assuming a break below the 200-day EMA (0.6875), which sits near the lower one-week implied volatility band.
The US Dollar Index formed an inside week and a spinning top doji above the March high as prices consolidated around the 200-week EMA. If the index can hold above 100.50, the odds of renewed downside for AUD/USD remain elevated this week.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Australian Dollar Performance Across Major Currency Pairs It was another mixed week for the Australian dollar, and a clear game of two halves against its commodity FX peers. This ties in with my suspicion that moves in AUD/USD could remain limited, as the bigger macro trends tend to unfold when a currency's direction is broad-based.
The Aussie was effectively flat against the Canadian dollar, with AUD/CAD mostly trading between 0.98 and 0.99 within a sideways range, despite an otherwise solid uptrend. Yet the Aussie weakened against the New Zealand dollar for a second consecutive week, sending AUD/NZD to a five-week low after the RBNZ meeting, with bears now eyeing a potential break below 1.20.
AUD/EUR rose for a second week as the Aussie gained traction against the euro, and I suspect this could be an early signal for a slightly more bullish AUD/GBP after its third consecutive weekly decline posted a particularly narrow range.
A modest recovery in risk sentiment helped the Australian dollar rise against the safe havens. A weaker yen on Friday also provided support after the Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced that large institutions are being encouraged to buy domestic assets. While the policy is supportive of the yen over the longer term, it was not an intervention. A broadly weaker Swiss franc also helped AUD/CHF climb 0.9% for its best weekly performance in three months.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is holding close to 1.1415, despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that would normally be expected to support the US Dollar.
UniCredit believes the Dollar's muted response reflects a combination of higher global bond yields, resilient equity markets and fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase.
The bank identifies rising long-term yields outside the United States as the most important factor supporting the Euro.
According to UniCredit, higher German Bund and Japanese government bond yields are providing a "parachute" for other major currencies, reducing the Dollar's traditional safe-haven advantage during periods of geopolitical stress.
The bank also notes that minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting remained cautious on inflation but stopped short of signalling an imminent interest-rate hike, while global equity markets have remained remarkably resilient.
UniCredit adds that investors have become increasingly accustomed to shifts in President Trump's rhetoric, making markets less likely to react aggressively to geopolitical headlines alone.
Even so, the bank does not expect a sustained Dollar sell-off until diplomatic progress resumes.
According to UniCredit, "a rapid move back above 1.15 in EUR-USD... appears unlikely" while negotiations between the US and Iran remain stalled. At the same time, the risk of EUR/USD slipping back towards the year's low near 1.1325 "has therefore not disappeared" if tensions escalate further.
The first important range is $4382.62 to $3942.10. Its retracement zone at $4162.36 to $4214.34 is resistance. It stopped a rally on July 6 at $4202.71. Taking out this swing top will change the main trend to up.
The second range on my radar is $3942.10 to $4202.71. Its retracement zone at $4072.40 to $4041.65 was tested successfully last week although the market dipped to $4021.81 before rebounding to $4138.06.
Bearish traders are going to try to press prices through $4041.65, in an effort to pull-away from the $4202.71 swing top, aiming for a retest of $3942.10 and beyond.
Bullish traders are trying to create a secondary higher bottom at $4021.81, which is the normal precursor to a potential change in trend. To put it another way, $3942.10 to $4202.71, the first rally, was short-covering. The second rally is usually a combination of new buyers and lingering shorts. Counter-trend buyers are also trying to create the upside momentum needed to take out $4202.71, and change the main trend to up.
That’s our early focus for next week, resume the downtrend under $4021.81 or change the trend over $4202.71.
Until the market changes the trend to up, we’re not too concerned about the moving averages although they are trending lower.
Key Points:Rising producer prices, import costs and bond yields keep another BOJ rate hike in focus.USDJPY remains bullish above 160.30, with a break above 163.70 opening the door toward 175.GBPJPY may target 220, while EURJPY could extend toward 190.50 if key support levels hold.
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The interest rate outlook for Japan remains uncertain as inflationary pressure continues to build. The producer prices are rising, import costs remain high and government bond yields have moved to multi-decade highs. These trends support the case for another Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike later this year. But the BOJ may still wait for stronger wage growth and increase in consumer inflation. This leaves the yen sensitive to policy signals, while USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remain technically strong.
BOJ Rate Hike Outlook Strengthens as Japan Inflation Rises Japan’s producer price index (PPI) increased by 7.1% YoY in June. This beat the market expectation of 6.8% and exceeded the upwardly revised 6.6% gain in May. The increase indicates that businesses are passing their increased input costs to customers faster than in the past. The trend could increase the consumer inflation and lead the BOJ to tighten again.
According to the data, the fuel prices increased by 22.8% while non-ferrous metal prices jumped by 39.2%. Energy prices were pushed up by the Middle East conflict while the AI material demand has lifted the metal prices. These pressures may remain high if tensions continue and supply conditions remain tight. This suggests that the BOJ may hike the interest rate in October.
A low yen is putting on a new layer of inflation. The import prices continued to rise as weak yen and higher energy costs raised the cost of imported goods. The chart below shows that Japan’s imports increased 12.5% to JPY 9,890.2 billion in May 2026. Now the BOJ must decide whether the higher import prices will spread into wages and consumer prices or remain at the wholesale level.
Japan Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs on Inflation Fears Japanese government bond yields are also pointing toward a higher interest rate environment. The 10-year JGB bond yield rose to a 2.90%, the highest rate since September 1996. It rose during nine consecutive sessions since 26 June, in response to rising oil prices, higher inflation and concerns about Japan’s fiscal health.
The strong drop in yields on Friday does not change the bullish trend. Rising yields suggest that the bond investors want greater compensation for the long term inflation risks.
The long term bond yields have increased with bigger momentum. The 20-year yield rose to 3.89%, while the 30-year yield reached 4.03%. The 40-year yield advanced to 4.055%. These moves indicate that investors are worried about the big government spending plans and that the policy may stay too loose and inflation will continue to rise.
But the shorter end of the yield curve is sending a more cautious signal. The 2-year yield reached to 1.445% and the 5-year yield reached to 1.99%. The yield gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields has increased significantly as seen in the chart below.
The steepening reflects a greater sense of inflation risk in the long end, and less confidence that the BOJ will hike soon. This suggests that BOJ may wait for stronger consumer prices and wages to increase its policy rate from 1% to 1.25%.
USDJPY Forecast: BOJ Rate Hike Risk Challenges Dollar Strength US–Japan Yield Gap Narrows as Japanese Yields Rise The interest rate outlook creates mixed environment for USDJPY. The yen should find support with higher Japanese yields and the prospect of another BOJ rate hike. A more hawkish BOJ could reduce the yield gap between Japan and the U.S. This would detract from any yen funded carry trades and may potentially lead to a lower USDJPY.
The chart below shows that the Japanese yields have increased much faster since 2022. But the U.S. yields have remained relatively high. As a result, the yield gap between the two countries has narrowed. This trend reduces the interest rate advantage of holding dollars over the yen. This may provide support for the Japanese currency. But the U.S. yields remain higher so the dollar still retains an important yield advantage.
But the low yen value still plays a crucial role in Japan’s inflation issues. As energy import prices go up, the demand for foreign currencies and the pressure on the yen increase. This might keep USDJPY high until the BOJ gives more clear indication of what it will do next. Any delay of the next rate hike would be positive for USDJPY while guidance of an October increase could trigger an import yen recovery.
USDJPY Break Above 163.70 Opens the Door to 175 From technical perspective, USDJPY is consolidating at the pivotal area of 160 to 162. The price is compressing within this region before an upside breakout. A break above this zone would likely open the door for strong surge in USDJPY toward the 175 target. This target is defined by the ascending channel pattern that extends from the 2023 lows.
The consolidation around this important region is also visible on the short term 4-hour chart. It shows that the pair is now consolidating between 160.30 and 163.70. The range is widening and prices are compressing within an ascending broadening wedge pattern. A break above 163.70 would indicate a stronger rally in USDJPY toward 166. But 160.30 remains strong support in the short term. Any correction is considered a buying opportunity for traders to push the pair higher.
GBPJPY Forecast: 218 Breakout Opens the Door to 220 Higher Japan rate expectations may also put pressure on GBPJPY. The very large interest rate differential between the United Kingdom and Japan has been good for the pound. But this advantage may weaken if the BOJ hikes the rates again to 1.25%. The higher Japanese bond yields could encourage investors to reduce carry trades and move capital back to yen.
But the pair may still be supported if Bank of England maintains higher rates or takes a conservative approach to rate cuts. Thus, GBPJPY will be reliant on both central banks’ relative directionality. The most bearish risk would be a hawkish BOJ and a softer Bank of England outlook.
GBPJPY also shows strong positive price action. This positive price action is reflected in the formation of inverted head and shoulders pattern from January 2026 to April 2026.
This bullish consolidation pattern broke higher in April 2026. After the breakout, the pair continued to rally on the strength of the pound and the weakness of the Japanese yen. The pair has already broken 216.30 and is now dropping back toward support to attract buyers. The 215.60 to 216.30 area remains strong support. A break above the 218 level would likely push the pair to further highs.
EURJPY Forecast: Bullish Trend Targets 190.50 Eurozone rate expectations are not that aggressive. Therefore, EURJPY could be more responsive to BOJ communication. If the European Central Bank pivots towards easier policy ahead of the BOJ’s next rate increase, the interest rate spread between Europe and Japan will narrow. This would provide support for the yen and increase the risk of a drop in EURJPY.
The outlook also depends on the global risk sentiments. The escalation in the conflict in the Middle East would drive up energy costs for Japan and Europe. But imported fuel needs could exert pressure on the yen in the near term for Japan. The EURJPY could hold steady ahead of the BOJ. But a clear sign that the bank will hike rates in October or at year’s end could generate a deeper pullback.
EURJPY also remains strong and is consolidating within rising trend lines. The immediate support remains at 183.50. The pair is also supported by the 200-day SMA at 182.80. If EURJPY continues higher, the immediate target remains 190.50. As long as the 180 level holds in EURJPY, the next move in the pair will likely be higher. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs are rising which indicates that any correction may attract new buyers.
Final Words The interest rate outlook in Japan remains tilted towards further tightening. The producer prices are high, import costs are increasing and bond yields are rising. These factors suggest another BOJ rate hike. But the central bank might still wait for the clear signals from wages and consumer inflation. A rate hike from 1% to 1.25% could be on the cards later this year if energy prices remain elevated and the yen remains weak.
If BOJ hints at a rate hike in October or at the end of the year, the yen could get some support. But the technical picture of USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remains bullish. A break above 163.70 in USDJPY would open the door for a rally to 175. GBPJPY might push higher towards 220 and EURJPY could head to 190.50.
Read more: Weak Jobs Data Hits Fed Hike Odds as Dollar Tests Support
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Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has eased back to around 1.4160 after retreating from June's highs above 1.42, with the Canadian Dollar finding support from firmer oil prices and improving risk sentiment.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41574 (-0.07%)
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.897869 (-0.13%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.616046 (-0.23%)
ING believes the Canadian Dollar can remain relatively well supported in the near term, although it does not expect USD/CAD to fall back below the key 1.40 level over the next couple of months.
The bank notes that higher oil prices and a modest repricing of Bank of Canada expectations have helped the Loonie outperform the US Dollar this week.
However, ING argues that the bar for a more hawkish Bank of Canada remains high. Unless oil prices return to the elevated levels seen during April and May, inflation pressures should remain sufficiently contained for policymakers to stay cautious.
According to ING, uncertainty surrounding the future of the USMCA trade agreement is likely to keep a risk premium embedded in the Canadian Dollar during the third quarter.
The bank says that while recent support for the Loonie is encouraging, "we still think USMCA-related risk premium can be added throughout 3Q and don't expect a return below 1.40 in the next couple of months."
ING expects next week's Bank of Canada meeting to deliver no major policy surprises, with attention remaining focused on employment, inflation and developments in North American trade negotiations.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD +0.19%-0.41%+0.21%-0.30%-0.18%-0.85%+0.61%EUR-0.19% -0.59%+0.03%-0.49%-0.37%-1.04%+0.43%GBP+0.41%+0.59% +0.62%+0.10%+0.22%-0.45%+1.02%JPY-0.21%-0.03%-0.62% -0.51%-0.39%-1.06%+0.40%CAD+0.30%+0.49%-0.10%+0.52% +0.12%-0.55%+0.92%AUD+0.18%+0.37%-0.22%+0.40%-0.12% -0.67%+0.80%NZD+0.86%+1.05%+0.45%+1.07%+0.55%+0.67% +1.48%CHF-0.61%-0.42%-1.01%-0.40%-0.91%-0.79%-1.46% The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Swiss Franc, where Canadian Dollar made its strongest advance. Data comparing prices today (11/07/2026 19:16 UTC) and daily close on 04/07/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
The US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) exchange rate is trading around 6.78 after retreating steadily through 2026, with the Yuan continuing to outperform many major currencies.
Westpac expects the Renminbi to strengthen further over the next two years, forecasting USD/CNY will fall to 6.75 by September, 6.70 by year-end and eventually reach 6.30 by the end of 2028.
The bank argues that China's long-term currency outlook is becoming increasingly favourable as the country expands its influence over global trade and investment.
According to Westpac, China’s “greatest opportunity” is a sustained recovery in domestic consumption, which would help balance growth away from exports and support broader confidence in the economy.
The bank believes stronger household demand, together with continued investment in advanced manufacturing and technology, should reinforce the structural case for a stronger Renminbi.
Westpac also expects China's growing role in global trade and financial markets to underpin the currency over time.
According to the bank, the Renminbi is forecast to “sustainably appreciate back to 2022 and 2018's… highs against the US dollar, circa CNY6.30,” adding that a move beyond that level is possible once the currency's expanding role in international trade and capital flows becomes more widely recognised.
Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels Gold has spent five consecutive weeks defending a pivotal support zone near the yearly lows. Repeated attempts to force a sustained breakdown have failed, raising the risk of a larger price inflection. The July opening range is forming just above support, increasing the importance of the next directional break. U.S. CPI and PPI data next week could provide the catalyst that resolves the current stalemate. Resistance 4319, 4492-4540 (key), 4894- Support 4074-4112 (key), 3887, 3570 For more than a month, sellers have repeatedly pressed the same technical floor without securing a decisive weekly breakdown. That resilience has left XAU/USD locked in an increasingly important consolidation as the July opening range develops and the broader March decline begins to lose momentum. With U.S. inflation data due next week, the next move could determine whether Gold is building a durable base or merely pausing before another leg lower. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was trading into pivotal support and that, “From a trend standpoint, the threat rises for an exhaustion low in the weeks ahead… From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4074 IF price is heading for a larger recovery with a breach above 4540 needed to suggest a more meaningful reversal is underway.” Despite multiple intraweek attempts, the bears have been unable to mark a weekly close below this key support barrier with the July opening range now taking shape just above. We will be looking for the breakout for guidance here with the March downtrend vulnerable while above this pivot zone.
Initial weekly resistance is eyed at the 52-week moving average (currently near ~4272) and is backed closely by medium-term bearish invalidation at the objective yearly open at 4319. Note that channel resistance converges on this level into the close of month. Key resistance remains unchanged at 4493-4540- a region defined by the March low-week close (LWC), the 38.2% retracement of the of the March decline, and the 2025 high-close. A breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.
Weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the March decline, the March low, and the October high-week reversal close (HWC) at 4074-4112. Price has been testing this support barrier for five-weeks now and a break / close below this level could fuel another bout of accelerate losses towards subsequent support objectives at the October swing low at 3887 backed by the trendline confluence near 3700 and the 100% extension at 3570. Both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Bottom line: Gold is testing pivotal support with price carving the Jul opening-range just above. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, this support would need to hold IF price is heading for a larger recovery here with a breach / weekly close above the yearly open needed to invalidate the March downtrend.
Highlighting the economic calendar next week will be the release of key U.S. inflation data, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Tuesday followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. After Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% target, markets will be closely scrutinizing the data for clues on the future path of monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would likely reinforce expectations for additional Fed tightening, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while weighing on gold prices. Conversely, softer inflation data could temper rate-hike expectations, easing pressure on bullion and allowing gold to further stabilize above this pivotal support zone. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts British Pound (GBP/USD) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading around 1.1415 after losing more than 2% during June and struggling to build a sustained recovery in July.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its six- and 12-month EUR/USD forecasts to 1.12, compared with previous targets of 1.18 and 1.20 respectively.
The bank expects a divided US Dollar environment, with the Greenback likely to strengthen further against lower-yielding currencies such as the Euro while losing ground against selected higher-carry currencies.
According to Goldman Sachs, the forecast revisions reflect an “ongoing divided Dollar environment” rather than an expectation of uniform Dollar gains across the foreign exchange market.
The bank expects US interest rates to remain at 3.50-3.75% for the rest of 2026, while resilient economic growth and persistent inflation should keep US yields relatively attractive.
Goldman Sachs forecasts US growth of 2.0% in 2026 and expects core PCE inflation to end the year at 3.0%, reducing the case for rapid Federal Reserve easing.
These conditions should continue to favour the Dollar against the Euro, with Goldman Sachs now expecting EUR/USD to fall towards 1.12 over both the six- and 12-month horizons.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has retreated to around 1.4160 after reaching highs above 1.42 earlier this month, with the Canadian Dollar showing signs of stabilising following its steep May and June losses.
Scotiabank believes the CAD sell-off may have run its course as short-term US-Canada interest-rate spreads reverse some of their earlier widening.
The bank expects Canada's June labour-market report to be an important near-term test. Economists forecast a 10,000 increase in employment, unchanged unemployment at 6.6% and a modest rebound in wage growth.
Scotiabank notes that May delivered an unusually strong 87,800 rise in employment, driven by large full-time job gains and an increase in hours worked.
According to the bank, "decent job gains, firm wages and more gains in hours worked would be positive for the CAD", potentially allowing USD/CAD to make another attempt below 1.4150.
A more substantial Canadian Dollar recovery would still require a clearer narrowing in US-Canada rate spreads. Scotiabank believes that could become more likely if upcoming US inflation data are softer than expected.
From a technical perspective, the bank says price action supports the view that the US Dollar rally has peaked, although bullish momentum has not yet been decisively broken.
A sustained move below 1.4150 would open the way towards 1.4075-1.4080, while Scotiabank remains confident that the 1.4250-1.4300 region will cap renewed USD gains.
