Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold – Chart Despite pulling back to the upper boundary of a rising channel $4,633, gold is holding above the 50-EMA at $4,569 and the 100-EMA at $4,493 on the 2-hour chart. This shows that the correction does not threaten the overall bullish structure. Bears have been unable to push price below $4,619 and $4,567 thus far. This further supports the bullish structure. A rejection at the level of $4,696 signifies that the bears have returned, but this is likely to be a short-term setback as buyers defend the higher-low structure.

The RSI, currently sitting at 55, reflects that price momentum has shifted from being overbought and is now in a neutral range. Price may trade around support at $4,619 and below, at $4,567, $4,508 and $4,448. If previous support is broken price may continue to fall. Resistance levels may be found at $4,696 and above at $4,756, $4,812.

According to my analysis, there is a bullish trend as long as gold holds $4,619. A break above $4,696 may be followed by further buying up to the levels of $4,756 to $4,812. Conversely, if price breaks below $4,567, a deeper consolidation may happen around $4,508.

The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.3640 during the European trading session on Tuesday, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) edges up, indicating strength in the British currency.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 99.10.

The Pound Sterling gains despite market experts seeing the Bank of England (BoE) holding interest rates steady in the near term.

UK inflation surprise limited as BoE pricing eases

Analysts at Danske Bank note that UK inflation data for July were broadly in line with expectations, with headline CPI rising to "2.9% y/y (cons: 2.9%, prior: 2.6%), mainly driven by the 13% increase in the Ofgem energy price cap from 1 July." They highlight that "core inflation was slightly higher than expected at 2.6% y/y (cons: 2.5%, prior: 2.6%)," while "services eased in line with expectations to 3.4% y/y (cons: 3.4%, prior: 3.6%)." According to Danske, the combination of this inflation print and "yesterday's weak labour market data" has "taken the top off BoE pricing for the remainder of the year."

Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades higher against its other peers as investors fear that fresh United States (US) sanctions on Iran could lift oil prices higher and eventually US Treasury Yields.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD trades at 1.3640, maintaining a bullish near-term bias, with price holding above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3531, which reinforces an underlying supportive structure after the recent advance.

The Relative Strength Index (14) near 69 suggests strong upside momentum, though it is flirting with overbought territory, hinting that gains could become more gradual if buyers pause ahead of fresh catalysts.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 1.3530, where a break would expose a deeper correction toward prior lows not visible in the current indicator set. As long as GBP/USD remains above this moving average, the broader constructive tone is likely to persist, with any shallow pullbacks viewed as corrective within the ongoing uptrend.

Strategists at Scotiabank describe the current technical backdrop for GBP/USD as "solidly bullish," noting that after a period of range trading and "two tests of 1.3150 (April and June)," the pair now appears better poised to advance. They argue that "a sustained push above 1.3650/60 implies potential for an extension towards the 1.41 zone over the balance of the year," underscoring their view that the underlying trend dynamics continue to favour further Pound appreciation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart highlight that Gold’s recent strength alongside USD weakness and higher US yields has not historically confirmed a debasement story. They find that in past episodes, Gold often corrected as DXY stabilised, but if US yields were to fall materially, history points to a regime where Gold rallies further and sustained Dollar softness becomes more likely.

Yield dynamics key for Gold outlookOur analysis examines similar previous episodes of USD weakness, gold strength and rising Treasury yields testing whether subsequent market behaviour validates the debasement narrative. The historical evidence suggests it does not.

"Across prior episodes, extreme readings in the signal were not followed by persistent USD weakness. Instead, DXY typically stabilised, while gold frequently corrected over the subsequent one to three months."

"If that backdrop were to change and yields began falling materially, history points to a different regime."

"In previous episodes where USD weakness and gold strength coincided with declining yields, gold continued to rally and sustained USD softness became more likely."

"A move from rising to falling yields represents an important signal that the market is transitioning from a fiscal and term-premium story towards an easing-driven USD bearish environment."

"As long as yields remain elevated, the more likely outcome is dollar stabilisation, gold consolidation and selective outperformance in carry-sensitive FX rather than a sustained debasement."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Platinum has taken a unique path within the broader precious metals market. It’s rarer than gold and enjoys a strong demand due to its broad industrial use, which sometimes pushes its market value even above that of gold. Yet, for much of the past decade, platinum has traded well below the price of gold and palladium. 

The long-standing price difference may now be on the verge of reversing as the next commodity cycle takes hold. With platinum supply remaining limited and its demand continuing to grow, it’s likely to be the new ‘value metal.’

Let’s look closer at the mechanics at play.  

There’s a persistent guaranteed supply problemOne of platinum’s key strengths is that its supply cannot be expanded quickly. The World Platinum investment Council (WPIC) forecasts that the platinum supply will remain in deficit for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, with demand projected to exceed supply by about 297,000 ounces. Global platinum inventories held above ground are expected to decline to roughly 1.747 million ounces, which would leave the platinum market with less than three months of global demand in available inventories.

Tight inventories like these tend to amplify price movements, making commodity prices vulnerable to sudden shifts in demand.

Moreover, platinum production only happens in a handful of countries. Adding to this supply would be a long-term undertaking requiring significant capital and as long as eight to 12 years to reach full output. Hence, even a sustained price increase may not produce an immediate supply response.

A broader industrial demand could sustain Platinum pricesInvestors have traditionally valued gold as a monetary asset with the ability to preserve wealth over time. Although platinum shares some of gold’s investment appeal, its industrial applications add another dimension to its value

Platinum’s role in the automotive industry is especially significant because it’s used in catalytic converters to control harmful exhaust emissions. Although the growing adoption of electric vehicles could weigh on the demand for platinum over time, the transition has yet to eliminate the metal’s broader sources of consumption.

Industrial consumption could also play a larger role in platinum’s demand outlook. Industrial demand is predicted to increase by 9% in 2026. Hydrogen technology is also another potential demand growth area for platinum as it is used in fuel cells and electrolyzers.

All of these current and growing industrial uses point to platinum’s sustained long-term demand.

Investment demand is also growingPlatinum’s relatively discounted price may also give it added appeal for investors seeking diversification within the precious metals sector. Gold’s strong price gains have prompted some investors to look toward other precious metals with greater exposure to industrial demand and constrained supply.

WPIC predicts a significant increase in physical platinum investment in 2026, with demand for bars and coins expected to reach about 718,000 ounces, which would be a six-year high.

The introduction of platinum and palladium derivatives in China could further influence the market. Trading in futures and options began on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in late 2025, and it may help broaden local participation and improve price formation. This market is likely to increase investor participation.

The risks to considerWhile sustained demand and the possibility of higher prices is appealing to investors, it’s worth noting that platinum is not without risks.

Firstly, because industrial use accounts for a larger share of platinum demand, a slowdown in the global economy could reduce its demand. For example, the continued shift toward battery-electric vehicles is likely to gradually reduce automotive demand, which has previously been a significant platinum supporter.

Secondly, rising platinum prices could make recycling more attractive, increasing the amount of platinum returning to the market from secondary sources. Thirdly, investor demand could also fluctuate, especially when investors sell to lock in profits after strong price gains.

The combination of these factors suggest that platinum should not be treated as a guaranteed substitute for gold or as a sure path to higher prices.

Several factors are increasingly coming together to strengthen platinum’s potential as the next value metal, from constrained production to growing industrial demand and renewed investor interest. If the next commodity cycle combines stronger industrial activity with sustained demand, platinum could see a meaningful upward revaluation. 

For investors considering platinum bullion, understanding platinum’s supply, demand, and market dynamics may help with predicting where prices will move in the near term. But for now, platinum remains a volatile asset with significant price swings driven by changes in industrial demand, investor behavior, available supply, and the economy as a whole.

As with any precious metal, investors should consider their financial objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity, premiums, and storage considerations before purchasing physical platinum.

Daily gold chart showing the correction from the $5,602 high to the $3,942 low, followed by a rebound to $4,640. Source: TradingView In the commodities complex, oil benchmarks were on the ropes yesterday, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s speech adding little volatility. Spot gold versus the USD, on the other hand, reached a high of US$4,696 – its highest level since mid-May. This rally is largely underpinned by planned US Treasury bond buybacks and an overall lower USD.

‘Operation Outcast’ Yesterday, the focus was largely on Bessent. Under President Trump’s direction, Bessent launched ‘Operation Economic Outcast’, described as an ‘economic onslaught’. The objective is to ‘sever’ every economic lifeline until ‘Tehran stands alone’, targeting five sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping.

Bessent warned that any country doing business with Tehran would be cut off from the US dollar system. No countries were named, and he neither confirmed nor denied whether China would be in their crosshairs – for context, Beijing imports around 80% of Iran’s exported oil. Bessent also emphasised that no one is above US sanctions and noted that Trump would personally call countries to ensure compliance.

While I could be wrong, I feel we have seen this movie several times during this 6-month conflict between the US and Iran. The specifics of the sanctions were few and far between, and this could be the Trump administration – despite their hyperbole – effectively running out of runway.

Until we know the weight behind these sanctions and how they will apply economic pressure on Iran to get it back to the negotiating table, this is far from a ‘D-Day’ scenario; it is more of a ‘warning shot’ to entities doing business with Iran. Furthermore, I am not sure how much effect this will even have on the Iranian regime; Tehran has weathered sanctions for years, and its approach has remained the same.

Once again, more questions than answers.

Earlier this month, you will recall that the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting. The latest bank forecasts showed a downward revision to the cash rate to 4.4%, with the YY trimmed-mean inflation forecast also revised lower to 3.3% by year-end, to 3% by June 2027, and is expected to reach the mid-point of the 2-3% target range by late 2027 or mid-2028.

Essentially, the latest forecasts signalled to traders that the central bank does not see the need to hike rates to bring inflation down. However, what caught many off guard was that, in her press conference, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock struck a hawkish tone, noting that inflation risks remain to the upside and that a rate hike was discussed at the meeting. This reversed the immediate downside in the AUD.

Earlier this month, the July Australian employment report was released, showing job growth fell by nearly 16,000 (from an upwardly revised 80,000 in June) and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5% from 4.4%. On the face of it, this was a poor report, and the AUD sold off as a result. Nevertheless, the drop in employment was largely due to a fall in part-time jobs – full-time employment actually jumped by around 16,000. Layer this in with the 4.5% unemployment reading lining up with the RBA’s end-of-year forecast, and this helps explain the lack of oomph in the immediate move lower and only a modest dovish repricing in cash rate expectations.

The overall tone remains hawkish heading into tomorrow’s print, reinforced again on 19 August by RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who said rates may need to rise again if inflation does not cool and that policy needs to actively suppress demand. Year-end market pricing implies about a 50% chance that the RBA hikes rates.

If inflation comes in softer than expected, this would – given the recent jobs print – help build the case for the RBA to remain on hold this year. On the back of this, I would expect STIR futures to rise as traders price out tightening bets for September and perhaps even November, and the AUD to take a hit. If CPI surprises to the upside despite a loosening labour market, it would put the RBA in an awkward spot – squeezed between persistent inflation and weakening employment. Although this could see some AUD upside, I feel it could be a tricky one to trade. A broad miss would offer the cleaner read, I believe.

Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst, Aaron Hill 

The Pound-Canadian Dollar exchange rate could extend its recent gains if US-Canada trade tensions deepen, although firmer oil prices may offer the Loonie some support. The Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate rose sharply on Monday, hitting its highest level in 17 days, as a trade war erupted between the US and Canada.

At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8855, up 0.4% on the day and at its highest level in over two weeks.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.888718 (+0.55%)

Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.615651 (+0.50%)

Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.38566 (+0.65%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faced heavy selling pressure on Monday as markets reacted to a breakdown in US-Canada trade talks.

Negotiations collapsed on Friday, with Washington imposing 50% tariffs on $20bn worth of Canadian goods. Canada retaliated, plunging the North American countries into a trade war.

Concerns about how this could impact the Canadian economy weighed heavily on CAD on Monday, as the US is Canada’s largest trading partner.

Meanwhile, a drop in oil prices also put pressure on the crude-linked ‘Loonie’.

Turning to the Pound (GBP), Sterling was muted on Monday amid a lack of UK economic data.

This left the British currency to trade without a clear overall direction, with Sterling facing mixed movement against its peers.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: US-Canada Trade War to Weigh on the ‘Loonie’? Looking forward, the only economic data due Tuesday is Canada’s preliminary wholesale sales for July. A forecast 1.3% slump in sales growth could pressure the ‘Loonie’.

However, CAD investors may be focused on US-Canada trade tensions and oil price dynamics. Concerns about an escalating trade war could pile pressure on the Canadian Dollar, while CAD could find some cushioning if oil prices rise amid the conflict in the Middle East.

As for the Pound, UK economic data is in short supply. As a result, movement in Sterling may be limited.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a constructive stance on EUR/USD despite recent consolidation around 1.1660. They still see room for upside toward 1.1725 in the coming weeks as long as support at 1.1630 holds. On a 1–3 month horizon, they highlight a decisive technical break and positive weekly MACD, pointing to targets at 1.1800 and 1.1850.

Constructive bias with higher targets"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR rose to 1.1711 last Friday and then eased to close largely unchanged at 1.1679 (+0.01%). When EUR was at 1.1675 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that EUR “could ease further, but any decline should stay within a range of 1.1645/1.1700.” EUR subsequently traded between 1.1655 and 1.1687. EUR closed modestly lower by 0.15% at 1.1662. The price action provides no fresh clues, and further range-trading appears likely, expected to be between 1.1650 and 1.1685."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Tracking our positive EUR view from early last week, we highlighted on Thursday (20 Aug, spot at 1.1675) that “there is room for further upside in EUR toward 1.1725.” EUR subsequently tested the 1.1710 level twice, but it has since eased. That said, we will continue to hold the same view as long as EUR holds above 1.1630 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1615)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 558.48 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 561.61 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,514.01 per tola from SAR 6,550.50 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

558.48

10 Grams

5,584.81

Tola

6,514.01

Troy Ounce

17,370.72

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 41,247.40 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 41,489.53 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to PKR 481,096.90 per tola from PKR 483,925.70 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

41,247.40

10 Grams

412,470.00

Tola

481,096.90

Troy Ounce

1,282,853.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 14,243.41 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 14,315.82 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 166,130.60 per tola from INR 166,976.90 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

14,243.41

10 Grams

142,435.40

Tola

166,130.60

Troy Ounce

443,015.30

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

EUR/JPY appreciates after two days of gains, trading around 185.80 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross remains within the ascending channel pattern, signaling an ongoing bullish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bullish near-term tone as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.45 stays in positive territory, suggesting firm but not overstretched upside momentum.

The EUR/JPY cross may explore the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.70, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may test the immediate support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 185.50, followed by the nine-day EMA of 185.07 and the 50-day EMA at 184.70. A break below this confluence support zone may cause the bearish reversal, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.

Yen focus shifts from intervention to BoJ fundamentalsStrategists at Scotiabank observe that the recent Yen narrative is evolving, with markets moving away from the summer’s emphasis on official action. They note that “the market narrative appears to be shifting from the official intervention that dominated through much of the summer,” with participants “now tightening their focus on fundamentals into the September 18 BoJ meeting.” This refocusing on underlying drivers, rather than headline intervention risk, is increasingly shaping positioning in JPY ahead of the policy decision.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.04%0.14%0.09%0.02%0.02%0.16%EUR-0.06%-0.02%0.11%0.03%-0.04%-0.07%0.10%GBP-0.04%0.02%0.13%0.05%-0.01%-0.04%0.12%JPY-0.14%-0.11%-0.13%-0.07%-0.14%-0.17%0.00%CAD-0.09%-0.03%-0.05%0.07%-0.07%-0.09%0.07%AUD-0.02%0.04%0.00%0.14%0.07%-0.02%0.10%NZD-0.02%0.07%0.04%0.17%0.09%0.02%0.16%CHF-0.16%-0.10%-0.12%-0.00%-0.07%-0.10%-0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Bitcoin jumps above US$80K for the first time in 3 monthsJapan to weigh tax incentives for retail JGB investors, Katayama saysGold has been slammed down $50 and oil has jumpedOil is still quietly crossing Hormuz, TotalEnergies CEO saysRBA minutes reveal live debate over a pre-emptive August hikeChina leans hardest against yuan gains in six months, AUD softensCiti lifts near-term gold target to $4,800, JPMorgan flags $5kBank of Korea rate call a coin toss as economists split on August hikePBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7852 (vs. estimate at 6.7219)Asian equites shunted lower at opening, South Korea and Japan both downGold holds near three-month high as debasement trade returnsLegendary investor Druckenmiller says Treasury is suppressing the bond market's warning signalMUFG sees yen risk skewed weaker despite 80% BOJ hike oddsTanker struck by projectile off Oman, UKMTO saysWaking up? Catch up time! Bessent softens Iran sanctions tone as Treasury's yield fix unravelsDollar slips to lowest since May as Treasury doubles bond buybacks, what's next?BOJ likely to hike next month and again in January, says ex-board memberIts the Toothless vs. the Clueless. SEC to investigate Situational Awareness near collapse.Oil slips over $2 as traders shrug off fresh US sanctions on IranICYMI - Morgan Stanley lifts Brent forecast to $100 as oil market tightensBroader US stocks close lower with Chip/AI stocks under pressureinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Trump and Canada trade threatsSummary:

A tanker was struck by a projectile off Oman while transiting a US-protected lane, according to UKMTO, even as Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi reported significant progress in talks with Iranian leadership; oil eked out a small gain on the sessionGold pushed above $4,690, approaching resistance near the $4,700 round number, before dropping sharply to below $4,640 with no clear catalyst identified for the reversalStanley Druckenmiller, described as a mentor to both Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, wrote in the Wall Street Journal criticising Treasury's recent bond buyback push to suppress long-term yieldsThe RBA minutes confirmed the board held rates unanimously at 4.35% in August, judging policy already restrictive enough for now while flagging upside inflation risks and readiness to hike again if neededFormer BOJ board member Seiji Adachi told Bloomberg the BOJ will likely hike next month and again as early as January, warning a hold could reignite yen weakness and faster import-driven inflationMUFG said September BOJ hike odds have climbed to around 80% without generating yen buying, arguing the move reflects market pressure on the BOJ rather than its own guidanceThe PBOC set its yuan midpoint 633 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate, the largest weak side deviation since February 27, with the Australian dollar among the currencies to weaken in responseCanadian government ministers are due to announce a response to US tariffs at 1100 US Eastern time, 1500 GMT, on Tuesday Oil edged marginally higher on the session, supported by a mix of geopolitical developments that offered no clear net direction. UKMTO reported a tanker had been struck by a projectile off Oman while transiting a US-protected lane, keeping shipping security risk in focus. Offsetting that, Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said talks with Iranian leadership had made significant progress, a development that, if it holds, would point toward de-escalation rather than further disruption.

Gold had a volatile session, briefly pushing above $4,690 an ounce and approaching resistance at the $4,700 round number before reversing sharply to trade below $4,640, with no clear catalyst identified for the move. The broader rally that has taken gold to its highest level since mid-May remains intact, with the metal continuing to draw support from renewed fiscal sustainability concerns following the apparent failure of the Treasury's bond market intervention to durably lower yields, a dynamic that has reinforced demand for bullion as an alternative store of value even as the day's price action showed how quickly sentiment can swing without an obvious trigger.

That fiscal debate found a prominent voice in Stanley Druckenmiller, who wrote in the Wall Street Journal criticising the Treasury's recent moves to suppress long-term bond yields. Druckenmiller, who has mentored both Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, argued the approach amounted to price management rather than genuine liquidity support. His view reflects a broader institutional debate over whether such intervention is sustainable, with proponents of that reading arguing it points toward a continuation of the dollar debasement trade and further upward pressure on yields should Treasury persist with the strategy.

Central bank developments were a significant feature of the session. Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's August meeting confirmed the board held the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, judging that policy already sat at a sufficiently restrictive level while explicitly flagging that risks to the inflation outlook remain skewed to the upside and that it stands ready to hike further if those risks materialise.

In Japan, former Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi told Bloomberg he expects the BOJ to raise rates next month and again as early as January, warning that a decision to hold steady could reignite yen weakness and add to import-driven inflation pressure. MUFG offered a related but distinct read, noting that market pricing for a September hike has climbed to around 80% without generating corresponding yen buying, a disconnect the bank said suggests the shift reflects pressure on the BOJ from the market rather than a result of the central bank's own communication, leaving near-term yen risk skewed to the downside.

Elsewhere in Asia, the People's Bank of China set its yuan midpoint 633 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate, the largest weak side deviation from market expectations since February 27. The Australian dollar was among the currencies to weaken in reaction, consistent with its tendency to trade as a proxy for shifts in Chinese currency and growth sentiment.

Looking ahead, attention turns to Canada, where government ministers are scheduled to announce a response to US tariffs at 1100 US Eastern time, or 1500 GMT, on Tuesday, a development likely to add a fresh trade policy dimension to the session ahead.

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Key Highlights

GBP/USD started a steady increase and climbed above 1.3650. A bullish trend line is forming with support near 1.3580 on the 4-hour chart. Gold surged and broke the $4,620 resistance zone. Bitcoin remained elevated, and the bulls could aim for a close above $80,000. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound found support near 1.3450 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started another increase above the 1.3580 resistance zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 1.3600, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair climbed above 1.3650 and traded as high as 1.3675 on TitanFX before it started a consolidation phase.

On the downside, an immediate support could be near 1.3600 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3524 swing low to the 1.3675 high.

The first major support could be near 1.3580. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3580. The next major support could be near 1.3525 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

The main support might be 1.3450 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.3450 might send the pair toward 1.3320. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.3250.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.3675 level. The next major resistance might be 1.3720. A close above 1.3720 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3800. Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.3865.

Looking at Gold, the bulls seem to be back, and they might aim for a move above the $4,720 resistance level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

US Housing Price Index for June 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.3% previous. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for June 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +1.7%, versus +1.6% previous. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August 2026 – Forecast 7.0, versus 5.0 previous.

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Gold (XAU/USD) touched a fresh high since May 14, during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it struggled to capitalize on the move and failed to break the $4,700 mark. The initial downward push on US bond yields due to the Treasury Department's expanded buyback strategy turned out to be short-lived amid concerns over the growing US national debt, which crossed $40 trillion. This has revived what traders call the "debasement trade" and underpinned demand for bullion as an alternative store of value.

Yields on long-dated US Treasuries initially fell after the US Treasury Department announced last Wednesday that it would double buyback operations for long-dated government debt from September. The relief from that intervention has since fully unwound, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbing back above their pre-announcement levels. The US Dollar (USD), however, has not mirrored the reversal amid receding bets for an immediate policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Tamer July US inflation data shifted market expectations toward a policy hold at the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting. This keeps a lid on the attempted US Dollar (USD) recovery from an over three-month low and turns out to be another factor supporting the non-yielding Gold. Nevertheless, traders are still pricing in around a 75% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid inflation risks stemming from volatile crude oil prices and escalating US-Iran tensions.

In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Monday that the US is launching a campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy. Bessent also warned that any country conducting business with Iran risks facing US sanctions. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, had said that the Islamic Republic would halt all oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and anywhere else in the Persian Gulf if economic war continues.

This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, lending some support to crude oil prices and the safe-haven Greenback. This, in turn, caps the upside for gold as traders now look forward to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Wednesday. Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote address at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday will be scrutinized for more interest rate cues, which will influence the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the Gold price.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical AnalysisThe recent breakout through a confluence hurdle near the $4,500 psychological mark – comprising a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June decline – favors XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays positive above the zero line, hinting that buying pressure is still dominant even as conditions look stretched.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in overbought territory near 71 and fails to assist the Gold price in building on intraday gains beyond the 50% retracement level. Nevertheless, momentum indicators remain constructive, suggesting that any corrective slide is more likely to be bought into and remain limited. Initial support is seen at the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% retracement confluence, ahead of $4,500, while a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% Fibo. level around $4,294 as a more distant floor.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement around $4,680.86, with additional hurdles at the 61.8% retracement near $4,853.70 and then the 78.6% level at about $5,099.77 ahead of the prior swing high around $5,413.22.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

The GBP/JPY consolidates near familiar levels around 217.00 on Monday, as risk aversion dominates markets, with flows moving into haven assets like the US Dollar and Gold amid uncertainty over the Middle East conflict.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookPrice action remains horizontal, while momentum has shifted bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI): After bouncing at the 50-neutral level, the RSI aimed higher but stalled at the 60 reading over the last two days.

For a bullish continuation, the GBP/JPY must clear 217.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be a downslope resistance trendline at around the 217.20-30 range, followed by the 218.00 mark and the July 30 high at 218.69. Above the next stop would be 219.00.

On the downside, the first support for GBP/JPY would be the 216.00 psychological level. Below the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.68, followed by 215.00. A decisive push by the bears, opens the door to challenge the 100-day SMA at 214.93.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.13%0.09%0.06%0.59%0.30%0.27%0.16%EUR-0.13%-0.01%-0.02%0.49%0.20%0.22%0.05%GBP-0.09%0.00%0.00%0.51%0.21%0.23%0.05%JPY-0.06%0.02%0.00%0.56%0.15%0.21%0.05%CAD-0.59%-0.49%-0.51%-0.56%-0.37%-0.24%-0.44%AUD-0.30%-0.20%-0.21%-0.15%0.37%0.03%-0.14%NZD-0.27%-0.22%-0.23%-0.21%0.24%-0.03%-0.19%CHF-0.16%-0.05%-0.05%-0.05%0.44%0.14%0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Gold and silver have pushed decisively higher, but veteran precious metals analyst David Morgan believes the bigger story goes far beyond the latest price move.

Speaking with Money Metals podcast host Mike Maharrey, Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report, argued that investors are witnessing a growing contest between precious metals and the credit-based monetary system. With gold trading above $4,500 per ounce and silver approaching $69 at the time of the interview, Morgan said the market is increasingly signaling a loss of confidence in government debt and fiat currency.

Gold and Silver have broken outMorgan believes both metals have already broken through important technical levels.

For silver, he had previously argued that prices below $60 wouldn't last long. Once silver established itself above $60 and held that level, Morgan viewed it as a legitimate breakout rather than a temporary move.

Gold told a similar story. Morgan had been watching the $4,000 level, but with the metal reaching roughly $4,500, gold had moved more than 10 percent above that threshold in only a matter of weeks.

Morgan hasn't completely ruled out a sharp correction. A bond-market disruption, interest-rate shock, or other unexpected event could produce what he called a sudden "spike low."

However, the strength of the metals during August, traditionally a seasonally weak period, caused Morgan to revise his expectations. He no longer believes such a selloff would necessarily push gold back to $4,000 or silver below $60. He suggested a sudden drop might instead take gold from around $4,500 to roughly $4,200, while silver could potentially retreat toward $62.50.

Building wealth one coin at a timeMorgan cautioned investors against becoming obsessed with daily price fluctuations.

His preferred strategy remains dollar-cost averaging. Instead of attempting to perfectly time every rally and correction, investors can consistently accumulate physical metal and remove some of the emotion from the process.

Morgan described the approach simply as building wealth "a coin at a time."

The point isn't to get rich overnight. It's to preserve purchasing power and gradually accumulate wealth with money that required real work to earn. Morgan noted that plenty of people who become rich quickly ultimately lose their fortunes just as quickly.

A battle between Gold and government debtMaharrey pointed out that geopolitical headlines, including developments surrounding Iran, have produced short-term volatility in gold and silver. But underneath those daily moves, he argued, the fundamental forces supporting precious metals remain intact.

Morgan took that argument further.

He believes the world may be approaching a tipping point in a much larger battle over which assets deserve monetary trust.

For decades, U.S. Treasuries and other sovereign debt instruments have been treated as among the safest assets in the financial system. Morgan believes gold is increasingly challenging that assumption.

In his view, the choice is becoming one between gold and a promise to receive currency sometime in the future.

A $1,000 bond may eventually return its principal, but Morgan noted that there is no guarantee the dollars received five, 10, 20, or 30 years later will possess the same purchasing power. Gold, by contrast, carries no counterparty promise.

Morgan pointed to central-bank reserve holdings as evidence that this transition is already underway, arguing that gold has overtaken credit instruments as the leading reserve asset held by central banks.

Mining stocks could provide confirmationMorgan believes one important confirmation of this monetary shift could come from institutional investment in major precious metals mining companies.

He specifically pointed toward companies such as Newmont, Barrick, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Franco-Nevada.

If large institutions begin moving substantial amounts of capital into the major mining companies, Morgan said it could signal that sophisticated investors increasingly recognize the same shift toward precious metals.

After studying the silver market for more than four decades, Morgan acknowledged his natural bias toward precious metals. But he believes the market itself is increasingly providing evidence for his thesis.

Treasury buybacks and the $40 trillion debt problemThe conversation turned to the Treasury Department's decision to double its buybacks of longer-term government debt.

Maharrey characterized the move as an attempt to suppress troublesome long-term interest rates. Morgan largely agreed.

Morgan explained that Treasury auctions ordinarily allow investors to determine the yield required to compensate them for inflation and other risks. If investors aren't willing to buy a long-term bond at a given yield, yields rise until buyers emerge.

As yields rise, existing bond prices fall.

Morgan argued that government intervention through increased buybacks interferes with that price-discovery process. In his view, it amounts to an effort to control the yield curve rather than allowing the market to determine the true cost of borrowing.

The stakes are enormous.

Maharrey noted that the federal government is carrying roughly $40 trillion in debt and already faces annual interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion. Higher yields would make financing that debt increasingly expensive.

Could Silver reach $100?Turning specifically to silver, Maharrey asked Morgan whether $100 silver could become a reality before the end of the year.

Morgan said it was possible, but it isn't his base-case forecast.

He has generally expected silver to reach somewhere around $78 to $82. At the same time, Morgan warned that silver has a long history of surprising even experienced analysts.

The critical variable is monetary demand.

Industrial demand has grown dramatically over the past quarter-century, rising from approximately 35 percent of total silver demand to around 60 percent. But Morgan explained that industrial demand generally doesn't fluctuate enough from one year to the next to create explosive short-term price moves.

Investment and monetary demand can.

When industrial users and investors simultaneously compete for the same available 1,000-ounce silver bars, the market can move rapidly. Morgan believes that dynamic helped drive the dramatic silver moves seen during the latter months of the previous year and the first month of 2026.

Morgan expects silver to continue grinding higher through the remainder of the year, although sharp corrections could periodically shake investors out of the market.

He doesn't believe the ultimate highs are in.

Morgan expects new record highs in both gold and silver, but he sees the bigger move potentially unfolding in 2027 or 2028.

Silver's industrial demand keeps growingHigher silver prices inevitably raise questions about substitution.

Solar manufacturers and other industrial users have an incentive to reduce silver consumption or replace it with cheaper metals such as copper. Morgan has been studying the issue and believes copper could reduce silver usage in solar panels, but he doesn't think it eliminates the need for silver entirely.

Durability could also become an issue.

If a cheaper copper-heavy solar panel lasted only five years compared with 25 years for a silver-intensive alternative, the apparent savings could disappear when measured across the product's full life cycle.

Even if technological improvements dramatically reduce solar-sector silver consumption, Morgan believes emerging technologies could absorb the difference.

He pointed to batteries, semiconductors, artificial intelligence infrastructure, electrical expansion, and robotics as potential sources of additional demand.

Could robots become a major source of silver demand?Robotics could eventually become an especially interesting source of silver consumption.

Morgan said his ongoing research suggests robots could contain roughly 20 to 30 grams of silver apiece.

Thirty grams is approximately one troy ounce.

That creates some striking theoretical numbers.

If global production someday reached 100 million robots annually and each contained roughly one ounce of silver, robotics alone could theoretically require approximately 100 million ounces of silver every year.

Morgan emphasized that he isn't predicting 100 million robots will necessarily be produced annually. The numbers remain speculative, and the industry isn't yet large enough to provide certainty.

The broader point is that robotics represents an emerging source of silver demand that barely exists today.

What's really behind Asian Silver premiums?Maharrey also asked Morgan about reports of unusually large silver premiums in Asia.

Morgan cautioned against interpreting the entire difference between Asian and Western prices as a true physical-metal premium.

Several additional costs can become embedded in the final Asian price.

Tariffs can add expenses. Currency fluctuations between the Chinese renminbi and U.S. dollar create hedging costs. Shipping physical silver across the world isn't free. Trust and other market considerations can add further expenses.

Once those factors are included, what appears to be a multi-dollar premium could actually consist of several different costs, with perhaps only around $1 representing the true premium on the metal itself.

That distinction matters because arbitrage isn't effortless. Shipping multiple 1,000-ounce silver bars across the ocean to capture a relatively small price difference may not make economic sense when silver itself can move dramatically while the metal is in transit.

What if the stock market doesn't crash?Morgan also offered a provocative reassessment of the U.S. stock market.

He has long considered American equities extremely overvalued and once viewed a major correction as virtually inevitable.

He still considers a correction the most likely outcome, but no longer sees it as inevitable.

Why?

Inflation can distort nominal asset prices.

Morgan pointed to countries such as Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Argentina, where stock markets can continue climbing in nominal currency terms even as the underlying currency depreciates faster than stocks appreciate.

In that environment, an investor's brokerage account can show a larger number while the investor simultaneously becomes poorer in real purchasing-power terms.

Morgan stressed that he does not expect the U.S. dollar to enter hyperinflation. But he pointed to a reported 9 percent monthly increase in beef prices as an example of the kinds of acute price pressures consumers can experience even without economy-wide hyperinflation.

Inflation can ultimately end in deflationMorgan then raised another idea that may seem counterintuitive.

"All inflations end in deflation," he argued.

The monetary system can continue inflating as confidence deteriorates, but Morgan believes some form of reset eventually becomes necessary.

He speculated that a future monetary structure could involve digital units, blockchain technology, or even a universal basic income. As a hypothetical example, he imagined a system providing people with 2,000 digital units per month.

But the number of currency units somebody possesses isn't the same thing as wealth.

The important question is what those units can actually buy.

Wealth is about choices, not digitsMorgan argued that living standards ultimately provide a better measurement of wealth than bank-account balances.

Real wealth means having choices.

Can you afford transportation? Housing? Food? Entertainment? Can you purchase the products you want when you want them?

A person can possess more nominal dollars while simultaneously experiencing a declining standard of living if goods become more expensive, scarcer, or unavailable.

Morgan pointed to food as an increasingly obvious example. If higher grocery costs force a middle-class household to sacrifice entertainment or other discretionary spending simply to maintain its diet, its real standard of living has fallen even if its nominal income has increased.

Maharrey expanded on the point by noting that inflation doesn't only manifest itself through consumer prices.

Monetary inflation can flow into stocks, real estate, and other assets, creating what appears to be greater wealth on paper. But if the amount of goods and services that wealth can command hasn't increased accordingly, much of that prosperity can be an illusion.

Ultimately, Maharrey argued, an economy isn't about paper units or digits in an account. It's about real goods and services.

Physical Gold and Silver as monetary insuranceMorgan closed the interview by returning to the fundamental reason he believes people should own precious metals.

Investors don't need to predict the exact date when the monetary system will change.

They need to be positioned before confidence changes.

Morgan believes that change in confidence is already occurring and accelerating.

His framework is straightforward. Gold provides monetary insurance. Silver provides monetary insurance combined with industrial leverage.

For investors interested in precious metals equities, Morgan believes carefully selected mining companies can provide additional opportunities. But equities also introduce additional risk.

That's why his preferred starting point remains physical metal.

"The least risk take is physical metal," Morgan said, describing it as the foundation of his approach to precious metals investing.

For Morgan, the surge in gold and silver isn't simply another commodity rally. It reflects a deeper question increasingly confronting investors, institutions, and central banks alike.

When confidence in promises to pay begins to erode, what constitutes real money?

Morgan believes the market is increasingly providing its answer.

The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium arrives at a pivotal moment. The U.S economy faces record debt, elevated borrowing costs, a weaker dollar and renewed momentum across hard assets. 

For The Gold & Silver Club, the backdrop increasingly validates its early-year call: “2026 will be the Year of Hard Assets.” 

Across global markets, that thesis is broadening. Copper is trading near record territory. Tin has emerged as one of 2026’s standout metals. Oil remains structurally elevated and Agricultural Commodities are now at their highest level in a decade.

“This is no longer simply a Gold story,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “The common denominator is scarcity. Traders are beginning to price how policymakers may respond as multiple macro forces collide.”

That makes Jackson Hole one of the most consequential macro catalysts of 2026 and potentially the trigger for the hard-asset rally’s next major phase.

The symposium runs from August 27–29, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to deliver his debut Jackson Hole keynote. U.S debt has crossed $40 trillion, long-dated Treasury yields have approached two-decade highs and inflation remains above target.

Federal debt has more than doubled since 2017. Interest payments have reached almost $1.2 trillion so far, this fiscal year, while the budget deficit is running above 6% of GDP. The 30-year Treasury yield recently touched 5.34% – it’s highest since 2007.

On August 19, the Treasury doubled liquidity-support buybacks for 10 to 30-year securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

“This is not quantitative easing,” says Hansen. “But markets rarely wait for policy labels. If borrowing costs keep rising while debt compounds, traders will question how long policymakers can tolerate restrictive conditions.” 

Gold surged to $4,680 on Monday, while Silver traded around $68.70. Gold-backed ETFs attracted 46.7 tonnes – approximately $6.4 billion – in one week, their strongest inflow in ten months. 

Gold has rebounded from below $4,000, while Silver has climbed from around $54 – roughly 29% from its recent low.

“The market is moving before policymakers do,” Hansen says. “That is often how the largest macro trades begin.”

The Fed faces a brutal policy equation. U.S nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while May and June employment was revised down by a combined 103,000. Yet inflation remains stubborn and three FOMC members dissented at July’s meeting in favour of a quarter-point rate increase.

Jackson Hole has history here. After Jerome Powell’s 2022 speech, the S&P 500 fell 3.4%, the Nasdaq dropped 3.9% and the Dow lost more than 1,000 points in a single session.

“Markets will dissect every sentence,” Hansen says. “If Warsh signals greater sensitivity to bond-market stress, Gold and Silver could react before the rest of the market has finished interpreting the speech.”

A decisive move through $4,700 Gold and $75 Silver would put $5,000 and $100 firmly back into focus.

“The greatest secular moves are rarely captured by traders waiting for perfect certainty,” Hansen says. “They are captured while the evidence is mounting and everyone else is still debating.”

If Jackson Hole convinces markets that America’s $40 trillion debt burden is restricting the Fed’s room for manoeuvre, the next hard-asset phase could unfold rapidly. Once Gold clears $4,700 and Silver breaks $75, hesitation could rapidly turn into capitulation buying as institutional capital, momentum traders and late-arriving investors chase the breakout.

By then, today’s prices may already be history. The opportunity rarely exists at maximum comfort – it exists while the evidence is building and the crowd is still hesitating.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

EUR/USD inches higher after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1670 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair finds support as rising oil prices, elevated bond yields, and escalating Middle East tensions drive Eurozone inflation concerns. These factors have boosted expectations for a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB), which is widely anticipated to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike in September following its June tightening.

Meanwhile, sovereign yields on longer-maturity Eurozone securities remain near multi-decade highs. They are tracking US yield movements driven by worries over Washington’s deficit spending and fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be taking a complacent approach to persistent inflation.

Strategists at Scotiabank note that the flow of macro news has been relatively light, with "fundamental releases have been limited" ahead of what they describe as this week’s key event: "the German IFO business sentiment figures scheduled for Tuesday." They add that shifting rate dynamics are weighing modestly on the single currency, as "yield spreads have pulled back slightly, eroding some of the EUR’s support as US Treasury yields have climbed over the past week or so."

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure after the US Treasury decided to double its buyback operations for longer-dated bonds. Reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could utilize nearly $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to fund these operations. Tensions are also escalating geopolitically, as the US expands secondary sanctions against entities doing business with Iran. Secretary Bessent warned that a major financial institution could face sanctions this week, explicitly noting that China will not be exempt.

Looking ahead, market participants are focused on key US economic events scheduled for this week. Consumer confidence data will be released on Tuesday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Wednesday. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver a speech on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, which could offer further direction for the Greenback.

Strategists at Scotiabank highlight that the “calendar and event risk this week is significant,” noting that the combination of key data releases and policy signals is encouraging investors to reassess exposures. In their view, this backdrop creates “the potential for some moderate gains in the USD broadly in the short run” as market participants “pare back positioning,” with the Dollar benefiting from a more cautious stance ahead of the upcoming risk events.

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Falling US Treasury yields, weakness in energy prices, and avoidance of a worst-case scenario when it came to the so-called economic D-Day sanctions on Iran implemented by the United States sounds like a toxic mix for the US dollar. But it proved to be anything but on Monday, with the DXY managing to rally.

“This is no longer simply a Gold story,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “The common denominator is scarcity. Traders are beginning to price how policymakers may respond as multiple macro forces collide.”

That makes Jackson Hole one of the most consequential macro catalysts of 2026 and potentially the trigger for the hard-asset rally’s next major phase.

A $40 Trillion Debt Problem Meets a 5% Bond Market The symposium runs from August 27–29, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to deliver his debut Jackson Hole keynote. U.S debt has crossed $40 trillion, long-dated Treasury yields have approached two-decade highs and inflation remains above target.

Federal debt has more than doubled since 2017. Interest payments have reached almost $1.2 trillion so far, this fiscal year, while the budget deficit is running above 6% of GDP. The 30-year Treasury yield recently touched 5.34% – it’s highest since 2007.

On August 19, the Treasury doubled liquidity-support buybacks for 10 to 30-year securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

“This is not quantitative easing,” says Hansen. “But markets rarely wait for policy labels. If borrowing costs keep rising while debt compounds, traders will question how long policymakers can tolerate restrictive conditions.”

“Markets will dissect every sentence,” Hansen says. “If Warsh signals greater sensitivity to bond-market stress, Gold and Silver could react before the rest of the market has finished interpreting the speech.”

The Breakout That Could Trigger a Stampede A decisive move through $4,700 Gold and $75 Silver would put $5,000 and $100 firmly back into focus.

“The greatest secular moves are rarely captured by traders waiting for perfect certainty,” Hansen says. “They are captured while the evidence is mounting and everyone else is still debating.”

If Jackson Hole convinces markets that America’s $40 trillion debt burden is restricting the Fed’s room for manoeuvre, the next hard-asset phase could unfold rapidly. Once Gold clears $4,700 and Silver breaks $75, hesitation could rapidly turn into capitulation buying as institutional capital, momentum traders and late-arriving investors chase the breakout.

By then, today’s prices may already be history. The opportunity rarely exists at maximum comfort – it exists while the evidence is building and the crowd is still hesitating.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

Despite the selling pressure that has dominated USD/MXN price action in recent weeks, a period during which the pair has declined roughly 0.6% over the last four trading sessions, today's session has been marked by a modest recovery in favor of the U.S. dollar. This move has begun to limit the recent gains of the Mexican peso, even after the release of Mexico's preliminary inflation figures, which so far have not been strong enough to trigger a significant positive reaction in the currency.

The dual intervention last month is fading as USD/JPY buyers get more and more aggressive, bidding dips at higher lows as we.

Bessent left the door open for even larger amounts. That is not the kind of statement that cools off a rally.

Yields are confirming it. The 10-year fell more than 3 basis points Monday to near 4.70%. The 30-year dropped about 4 basis points to near 5.24%. Neither move is dramatic on its own. Together with last week’s action, they extend a trend that gold is riding hard.

Real Money Moved In After the 200-Day Breakout Gold ETF demand last week was the kind of number that makes you pay attention. Gold-backed funds added 46.7 metric tons, worth about $6.4 billion. That was the strongest weekly inflow in ten months. North American and European funds drove the buying. This was not retail money chasing a headline. These are allocators making a positioning call after the 200-day moving average broke. The momentum crowd followed them in and the basing pattern is done. The breakout is getting chased.

The dollar has not helped the bears. The greenback dropped to multi-month lows last week on the buyback news. It has sat there since. No bounce. No attempt at recovery. Dollar bulls need something to grab onto. There is nothing in front of them that changes the picture.

The Calendar Has Three Chances to Shake This Trade Loose Wednesday’s PCE report and Friday’s Warsh keynote both point at the same thing. Yields. The inflation data arrives with income, spending, and a GDP revision all at once. A hot print gives the bears something to work with for the first time in a week. Warsh follows two days later with his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair. He has not given traders anything concrete on rates. He does not need to. One comment about inflation or debt supply is enough to move the long end. Everything gold has done in the last five sessions depends on the rate picture holding together.

Bessent’s Iran sanctions package lands before either of those events. The headline matters less than whether China is part of the enforcement. Tighter crude keeps the inflation pressure alive heading into Wednesday’s PCE. The three events are not separate risks. They all run through the same trade gold is sitting on.

What to Watch The buyback trade is the dominant force in gold. The dollar has not bounced. Yields keep drifting lower and institutional money is already positioned. That is a lot of support pointing the same direction. PCE Wednesday is the first event that can disrupt it. Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday is the second. Bessent’s sanctions package today adds risk through the oil side of the inflation picture.

The chart is clean above the 200-day moving average with no overhead resistance until the long-term retracement zone. The breakout is confirmed by the scale of last week’s ETF buying. Gold does not need fresh catalysts to keep running. It just needs the current setup to hold.

XAU/USD Current price: $4,657The breakdown in US-Canada trade talks spurred fresh concerns.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to announce measures to financially choke Iran. XAU/USD gains bullish traction and aims to test sellers´determination around $4,700. Spot Gold briefly traded above $4,680 a troy ounce on Monday, reaching its highest since mid-May. The XAU/USD holds on to most of its intraday gains in the American afternoon, as the US Dollar (USD) continues to trade lower against most major rivals amid turmoil in the world’s largest economy.

United States (US) President Donald Trump is dealing with two open fronts. On the one hand, Trump has threatened neighboring Canada with massive tariffs, mostly on steel and the automotive industry, after trade talks collapsed last week. According to Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump made disproportionate demands at the last minute.

On the other hand, US Secretary Scott Bessent will hold a press conference to provide details on sanctions against countries or companies that trade with Iran. US President Trump announced last week the next move in the Middle East war will be choking Iran financially.

US President Trump’s threats have lost their weight in financial markets, as has been the case ever since he took office, only to chicken out at the last minute. However, his recent remarks are having a negative impact on the Greenback, with market participants anticipating adverse economic consequences for the country.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, and according to the four-hour chart, XAU/USD has a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,573.09 and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $4,350.49 and $4,204.36, respectively. The alignment of these underlying averages reinforces a strong uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at 76, far from signaling upward exhaustion. The Momentum indicator, in the meantime, turned marginally lower alongside the latest retracement, but remains well above its midline.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD extends its advance well above the main moving averages and keeps a clear bullish near-term bias. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $4,379.83 and $4,516.97, respectively, sit comfortably below spot, suggesting a solid underlying trend structure, while the 20-day SMA at $4,307.69 underscores how far the latest push has stretched from the short-term mean. Technical indicators maintain their upward trajectory well above their midlines, suggesting the uptrend remains strong.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the $4,573.09 area where the 20-period SMA converges, followed by the $4,500 threshold. A deeper structural cushion comes at the 100-period SMA at $4,350.49 and the 200-period SMA at $4,204.36 if corrective forces intensify. Immediate resistance comes at $4,700, followed by peaks in the $4,730 price zone. Once above the latter, the path towards $4,800 becomes clearer.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.