United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that EUR/USD slid to 1.1377 and closed at 1.1381, a two‑week low, as the Dollar strengthened ahead of United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI). While short‑term momentum has turned lower, they see limited scope for sustained losses, with 1.1360 and 1.1325 as key supports and range‑trading between 1.1360 and 1.1450 still the base case.
Euro pressured within defined range"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR opened with a slight gap down yesterday. When it was at 1.1395, we indicated that “while the increasing downward momentum suggests EUR could decline further, the major support at 1.1360 could be out of reach.” We noted that “there is another support level at 1.1375.” We added, “to sustain the downward momentum, EUR must hold below 1.1420.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. EUR popped to a high of 1.1445 before plummeting to a low of 1.1377. EUR closed on a soft note at 1.1381 (- 0.28%). While the bias remains on the downside today, downward momentum is not particularly strong after the rise to 1.1445. Overall, as long as EUR holds below 1.1415 (minor resistance is at 1.1400), there is a chance for EUR to drop below 1.1360. That said, a continued drop below this level appears unlikely. The major support at 1.1325 is also unlikely to come into view."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (09 Jul, spot at 1.1420), when we highlighted that EUR “has likely moved back into a range-trading phase, expected to be between 1.1360 and 1.1450.” Yesterday, EUR fell to a low of 1.1377. The slight increase in downward momentum is insufficient to indicate a sustained decline. EUR must close below 1.1360 before a move to 1.1325 can be expected. The likelihood of EUR closing below 1.1360 will remain intact as long as EUR holds below 1.1445."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EURUSD maintains an incomplete bearish sequence from the January 27, 2026 peak, leaving room for further downside. The projected target zone is defined by the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the January 27 high, which falls between 1.076 and 1.117. This extension range provides a precise technical framework for anticipating the next leg lower. In the near term, the cycle from the July 2, 2026 high has unfolded into a five‑swing decline, reinforcing the bearish bias and signaling additional weakness.
From the July 2 high, wave ((i)) concluded at 1.139 as a diagonal structure. A corrective rally in wave ((ii)) terminated at 1.146, after which the pair resumed its downward trajectory in wave ((iii)). The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) is unfolding as another five‑wave impulse. Within this structure, wave (i) ended at 1.138, while wave (ii) retraced to 1.145. These developments confirm that the decline remains active and incomplete. As long as the pivot at 1.147 holds, rally should fail in 3 or 7 swing and EURUSD is expected to continue pressing lower. A decisive break below the June 24 low at 1.1324 is required to eliminate the possibility of a double correction.
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British Pound strengthens above 1.3350 ahead of US CPI dataThe GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3360 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid fears of an escalating US-Iran conflict. The US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will take center stage later on Tuesday.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Washington was reinstating a naval blockade on Tehran and would ensure the Strait of Hormuz remained open for a fee following fresh exchanges of missile and drone strikes, per Reuters. The US military said that US forces completed new strikes on Iranian military targets, adding that more than 50,000 US service members are currently deployed across the Middle East. Read more...
British Pound Sterling buckles as Trump builds the Hormuz toll booth he swore would never existThe British Pound Sterling is spending Monday learning the difference between a recovery and a reprieve. GBP/USD opened the week flush against its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), probed the 1.3400 area through the Asian hours, and has been sold methodically ever since; the pair now changes hands at 1.3349, leaning on the 1.3350 shelf with the session low a few pips beneath.
Little of the damage is native to Sterling, because the Dollar is being bought against the entire major-currency board on two stories that landed within hours of each other. The first turns the world's most important Crude Oil chokepoint into a toll plaza; the second comes from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official who spent last year arguing for cuts and now warns about hikes. Read more...
The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to near 112.55 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some sellers against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after Reuters reported on Monday that Tokyo had no immediate plans to alter the asset allocation of its state pension funds, reducing expectations of near-term support for domestic assets.
Nonetheless, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the country’s massive pension fund would adjust its holdings if necessary, while also proposing the inclusion of government bonds in a tax-free investment program for individual investors.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a mildly bearish bias as it holds just beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price remains above the Bollinger middle band, suggesting some near-term demand, but the proximity of the upper band and the capping 100-day SMA reinforces a topside-constrained tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.81 sits near neutral, hinting at consolidative momentum rather than a clear directional drive.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.60, with a break exposing the Bollinger upper band near 113.40 as the next barrier. On the downside, initial support aligns with the Bollinger middle band at 112.30, ahead of a deeper cushion at the lower band around 111.25, where stronger buyers could attempt to reassert control if the current drift extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The NZD/USD pair catches aggressive bids during the Asian session on Tuesday and jumps to a nearly four-week top in the last hour amid a combination of supporting factors.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens as hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway raised the prospect of further interest rate hikes. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, pauses a two-day rally as bulls opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony. This, in turn, provides a goodish lift to the NZD/USD pair and backs the case for additional gains.
From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive with the line advancing above zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 57, hinting at improving momentum. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 0.5810-0.5820 confluence before placing fresh bullish bets.
The said area comprises the 50% retracement level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), above which the NZD/USD pair could aim to test the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.5853. The latter reinforces a broader cap ahead of 0.5914 and 0.5992. On the flip side, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 0.5767, ahead of the 23.6% level at 0.5714, while a deeper pullback would expose the recent swing low area near the 0.5628 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%-0.10%-0.10%-0.18%-0.19%-0.64%-0.12%EUR0.09%-0.01%0.00%-0.09%-0.11%-0.54%-0.03%GBP0.10%0.01%0.02%-0.06%-0.08%-0.53%-0.02%JPY0.10%0.00%-0.02%-0.08%-0.12%-0.56%-0.05%CAD0.18%0.09%0.06%0.08%-0.03%-0.46%0.05%AUD0.19%0.11%0.08%0.12%0.03%-0.43%0.09%NZD0.64%0.54%0.53%0.56%0.46%0.43%0.51%CHF0.12%0.03%0.02%0.05%-0.05%-0.09%-0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 474.62 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 472.49 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,535.82 per tola from AED 5,511.03 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
474.62
10 Grams
4,746.15
Tola
5,535.82
Troy Ounce
14,762.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,969.35 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,934.04 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,956.75 per tola from PHP 92,541.06 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,969.35
10 Grams
79,699.64
Tola
92,956.75
Troy Ounce
247,865.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 485.54 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 483.12 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,663.16 per tola from SAR 5,634.98 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
485.54
10 Grams
4,855.32
Tola
5,663.16
Troy Ounce
15,102.19
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold is finding itself squeezed by two markets moving in the same direction. Oil is rebuilding inflation fears, while the Federal Reserve is becoming more willing to tighten policy again if price pressures refuse to ease. Together, those forces have left the metal on the defensive, with the psychologically important $4,000 level looking increasingly fragile as investors await another pivotal US inflation report.
The latest catalyst came from both geopolitics and monetary policy. Brent crude briefly climbed above $85 after US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose shipping fees on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz and restore a blockade of Iranian ports, raising the prospect of higher energy costs and renewed supply disruptions. For Gold, the significance lies less in the conflict itself than in its impact on inflation expectations. Rising oil prices increase the risk that inflation remains elevated, making it harder for the Fed to justify keeping policy unchanged.
That concern was reinforced by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, whose comments represented a notable shift from one of the Committee’s more dovish voices. Waller said that “if we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term,” adding that another strong inflation reading would be “signal, not noise.” His remarks accelerated the repricing already underway in interest-rate markets. Fed funds futures now imply better than a 40% chance of a July rate hike, compared with roughly one-in-four a week ago, while the probability of a September increase has climbed to about 76%, up from 57%.
Even with those headwinds, Gold sellers have stopped short of forcing a decisive breakdown before today’s key events. Markets remain focused on the June CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony, which together could either validate or challenge the increasingly hawkish policy outlook. If inflation again surprises on the upside, the combination of stronger oil prices and a more hawkish Fed would present an even more difficult backdrop for precious metals.
The technical picture reflects that growing pressure. Gold continues to trade comfortably within a well-defined near term falling channel, leaving the decline from the record high of 5,598.38 firmly intact. The 4,000 psychological level has become the market’s immediate battleground.
Firm break of 3,942.23 low would resume the whole down trend from 5,598.38 record high. Next target will be 50% retracement of 1,614.60 (2022 low) to 5,598.38 at 3,606.49. Any recovery, meanwhile, is likely to be viewed as corrective while prices remain below 4,202.87.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview DXY holds $101.20, with the daily chart showing mixed candlestick retesting of the Fibonacci 0.618 level at $100.31 after a strong breakout from the $97.67 swing low. Bullish candles are making higher highs with the price staying above the 50-period EMA at $100.21, signaling buyers’ control.
The RSI, though still near neutral at 60, is biased to the upside. The volume profile is also showing $101.00 to 101.50 as the breakout zone. In the coming weeks, the technical analysis suggests a target near $103.09.
Since the price is holding above $100.31, the technical structure remains strongly bullish. As the chart is in an uptrend, the price is making higher highs and higher lows in a channel. My plan is to buy above $101.20 targeting $103.09, with a stop loss at $100.31.
Gold – Chart Gold is trading at $4,021 on the 4-hour timeframe. Green/red candles are attempting to re-test symmetrical triangle resistance around $4,091, while holding support near $3,959. That support represents a triple bottom formation. We’re seeing bullish rejection with longer wicks, as well as a series of higher lows, suggesting buyers are accumulating. RSI sits at 39 (neutral).
On the volume profile, there is a sizeable amount of buying activity from $4,000 to $4,091 as price continues to bounce within that zone. The 50-period EMA (in blue) is currently placed at $4,087 and is currently acting as resistance.
Price is neutral/bullish as we test the $4,091 level to try and set up higher lows. The overall downtrend is still present from $4,021 until $4,597. There is a confluence on the Fibonacci that provides support in the near-term. I would be interested in a long near $4,021 targeting $4,140. A stop will be placed below $4,091.
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 526.60 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 524.66 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,142.11 per tola from MYR 6,119.53 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
526.60
10 Grams
5,265.78
Tola
6,142.11
Troy Ounce
16,379.12
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,426.38 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,365.80 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 144,944.60 per tola from INR 144,232.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,426.38
10 Grams
124,268.30
Tola
144,944.60
Troy Ounce
386,504.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 184.90 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) after reports that Japanese officials had no imminent plans to change the asset allocations of their state pension funds, tempering expectations of near-term support for domestic assets.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government may consider a pension asset allocation tweak if the environment changes. Traders remain on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period middle line, which together underpin a modest bullish bias. Price is also well above the lower Bollinger band, while the upper band at 185.89 caps the immediate topside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.62 sits close to neutral, hinting at a consolidative tone with a slight upward tilt rather than strong directional momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the upper Bollinger band around 185.90, where a clear break would open the way for the June 17 high of 186.32, en route to the April 29 high of 187.42.
On the downside, nearby support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 184.85, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 184.75, with the lower band down at 183.65 acting as a more distant structural floor should corrective pressure deepen.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,092.99 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,915.95 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 420,996.20 per tola from PKR 418,916.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,092.99
10 Grams
360,941.10
Tola
420,996.20
Troy Ounce
1,122,616.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
AUD/USD edges higher after posting 0.5% losses in the previous day, trading around 0.6930 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair remaining within the descending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bearish bias.
The AUD/USD pair is holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains under both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is attempting to stabilise after recent losses, but the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 suggests only modest recovery momentum, hinting that any rebound may stay capped while price trades below these clustered moving-average barriers.
The AUD/USD pair may fall toward a nearly six-month low of 0.6833, recorded on March 30. Further declines would expose the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.6770.
On the upside, the AUD/USD is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6932, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around 0.6960. A break above the channel would cause a bullish emergence and support the pair to test the 50-day EMA of 0.7011.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.10%-0.13%-0.18%-0.17%-0.75%-0.16%EUR0.11%0.00%0.00%-0.07%-0.07%-0.63%-0.05%GBP0.10%-0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.05%-0.64%-0.05%JPY0.13%0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.07%-0.65%-0.07%CAD0.18%0.07%0.06%0.06%-0.01%-0.57%0.01%AUD0.17%0.07%0.05%0.07%0.00%-0.57%0.03%NZD0.75%0.63%0.64%0.65%0.57%0.57%0.59%CHF0.16%0.05%0.05%0.07%-0.01%-0.03%-0.59% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from a nearly two-week low, touched during the Asian session on Tuesday, and climbs back above the $4,000 psychological mark, though the upside potential seems limited. The US Dollar (USD) pauses following a strong two-day rally as bulls turn cautious ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor offering some support to the bullion. However, escalating US-Iran tensions, along with firming Fed rate-hike expectations, back the case for a further near-term USD appreciation and should cap the yellow metal.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be published later today and is expected to show a fall in the headline number amid a significant decline in gasoline prices during June. Meanwhile, the focus will be on the core CPI figures, which act as a primary gauge to track the underlying inflation trend. Furthermore, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's inaugural semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee will influence rate-hike bets. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding Gold.
In the meantime, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating US-Iran tensions lift Crude Oil prices to a nearly one-month high, reigniting inflation fears and raising prospects of higher-for-longer US interest rates. The US military launched a third straight night of strikes against Iran on Monday after US President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted US facilities in the region, while two UAE tankers were hit by Iranian cruise missiles in the strait. Traders were quick to price in geopolitical risk premiums, which favors the USD bulls.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Hence, any subsequent recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. The XAU/USD pair seems vulnerable to decline further toward retesting the year-to-date low, around the $3,943-$3,942 region, touched on June 30.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold’s bearish technical setup backs the case for the emergence of fresh sellersFrom a technical perspective, the precious metal stays well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and keeps the broader tone bearish within a descending channel. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally positive, hinting at fading downside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 remains below the neutral line and reinforces a still fragile recovery rather than a confirmed bullish turn.
Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to be sold into and remain capped near the $4,100 mark. A sustained strength above could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the Gold price to the channel resistance, around $4,221. Some follow-through buying should expose the 200-day SMA pivotal resistance around $4,495.01, which, if cleared, would negate the bearish bias. On the downside, key support sits around $3,761.01 at the parallel channel boundary, and a decisive move back toward that zone would reopen the path for a deeper slide.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver price (XAG/USD) loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around $57.60 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The price of the non-yielding white metal faces challenges as escalating Middle East tensions drive oil higher, stoking fears that energy-driven inflation will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates elevated.
Market expectations have shifted rapidly in response, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 51% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, compared to just a 23% chance that rates will stay on hold.
US President Donald Trump has reinstated a naval blockade targeting Iranian vessels and customers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously announcing that all other commercial cargo passing through the strategic waterway will be subject to a 20% reimbursement fee.
Market participants are awaiting two massive macroeconomic catalysts scheduled for Tuesday. The US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, where analysts anticipate a divergence between a 0.1% month-on-month decline in headline inflation and a sticky 0.3% increase in the core reading.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver highly anticipated congressional testimony, a session that traders will dissect word-by-word for hints on whether the central bank will validate the market's growing hawkishness.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.7990 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7972 and 6.7927 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure near $3,995 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends its downside as renewed US-Iran tensions keep inflationary pressures high. Traders await the release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh testifies later on Tuesday.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% reimbursement on all other cargo shipped through the waterway. Trump added that the US would keep up attacks on Iran, saying that “we’re going to hit them very hard tonight, and we’re going to hit them hard tomorrow.”
A reinstatement of the blockade on Iranian ports may prompt Tehran to step up attacks on ships seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could trigger energy-driven inflation concerns and force the Fed to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
The US CPI inflation data will be in the spotlight later in the day. Analysts expect the headline CPI to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. In case of a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The shared currency begins the week on a lower note, down 0.31% as risk aversion fueled flows towards the US Dollar amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. Also, hawkish comments by a Fed official underpinned US Treasury yields, suggesting markets expect the US central bank to raise rates. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1379 after reaching a high of 1.1445.
EUR/USD falls as Oil shock revives Fed tightening fearsThe strength of the US Dollar is the main reason the Euro is being battered. The positive correlation between the Greenback and Oil prices suggests that a rally in crude prices triggers a flight to safety in the foreign exchange market. Why? Because high energy prices fuel speculation that major central banks — including the Federal Reserve- might need to raise interest rates.
Alongside the challenging geopolitical environment, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that a high core inflation reading would prompt immediate consideration of a rate hike. Although he maintains a hawkish stance, he believes it's plausible inflation could hit the 2% target without increasing rates and mentioned that the labor market is nearer to the Fed’s maximum employment objective.
This triggered a jump in US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year T-note surging 6 basis points to 4.624%, indicating that investors are preparing for an imminent rate hike by the Fed.
Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the American currency against six other currencies, is up 0.32% at 101.28.
Money markets are pricing in nearly 42 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalBreaking news revealed that US CENTCOM announced at 16:45 ET that it began launching a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran. Iranian media reported that explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas and revealed that Iran’s army targeted US military facilities in Kuwait and a “hostile” US vessel with cruise missiles.
The US economic docket will feature the release of crucial US inflation data and the testimony of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh before the US Congress. Across the pond, the Eurozone schedule ill feature a speech by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
EUR/USD daily chartIn the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1385, keeping a bearish near-term bias as the pair holds beneath the clustered 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.1554 and within a downward parallel channel. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 37 stays in bearish territory, suggesting downside pressure persists while the price remains capped by the channel structure and the descending trend-line that was previously broken near 1.1600.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen near 1.1422, where the lower boundary of the current downward channel now sits above spot, followed by the grouped daily SMAs around 1.1554, which reinforce the broader cap. Further up, the channel top near 1.1596 and the prior trend-line break area at 1.1600 form a dense resistance band ahead of the horizontal barrier at 1.1849, while the absence of clearly defined support below the market leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to further weakness if selling resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Japanese yen volatility has returned as traders unwind record short positions ahead of US CPI. With USD/JPY testing major resistance below 163 and intervention risks lingering, futures positioning suggests gains may become harder to come by. Here are the key USD/JPY and AUD/JPY trade setups to watch.
View related analysis:
Yen Bears Capitulate, US Dollar Nearing Sentiment Extreme? | COT report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bounce Losing Steam Ahead of US CPI Gold Price Outlook: Bulls Weigh the Odds of Another Bounce Above $4,000 How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment Japanese Yen Short Covering Puts USD/JPY at a Critical Juncture Japanese Yen Volatility Returns Ahead of US CPI Volatility has perked up for the Japanese yen over the past few weeks, and it has cut both ways. A market-led selloff heading into the 2 July non-farm payrolls (NFP) report saw USD/JPY fall by as much as 200 pips before recouping those losses over the following four days. On Friday, USD/JPY fell more than 100 pips on reports that Japan's largest pension fund had been instructed to purchase domestic assets.
This is quite a significant development because it suggests Japan is exploring alternative ways of supporting the yen besides traditional currency intervention. It could prove a shrewd approach, allowing policymakers to avoid swimming against the tide while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance and US economic data continues to outperform.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Yen Gains May Be Harder to Come By I think the bigger takeaway is that easy gains on USD/JPY may be harder to come by, but that is not the same as saying the pair cannot move higher. The combination of traders remaining wary of potential intervention, alongside efforts to support the yen without directly intervening, could allow USD/JPY to grind higher while keeping volatility elevated. Put another way, the broader uptrend may remain intact, but traders should expect more frequent bouts of two-way price action.
With USD/JPY testing resistance ahead of today's US inflation report, traders are on high alert for either a bullish breakout or a sharp reversal. Markets continue to price in a hawkish Fed, so it may not take much of a downside CPI surprise to shake the market from these elevated levels, particularly as Japanese yen bears continue to capitulate in the futures market.
Japanese Yen Futures Positioning: USD/JPY COT Report I have been warning for several weeks about the potential sentiment extreme in Japanese yen futures. Gross short positions had climbed to record highs among both asset managers and large speculators, while long positions also edged higher despite the yen's persistent downtrend (USD/JPY uptrend). That pushed net-short exposure close to two-year highs for both groups of traders.
However, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed a clear reduction in bearish positioning last week. Gross short exposure was cut by a combined 48.8k contracts across both trader groups, falling 11.6% among large speculators and 12.7% among asset managers. Long positions increased only marginally, making this a story of short covering rather than fresh bullish conviction.
The conditions are not yet in place for a sustained yen rally, but if bearish traders continue heading for the exit, gains on USD/JPY may become harder to come by than they have been over recent months.
Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen The 1-hour chart shows a decent uptrend from Monday's low. Prices are testing the weekly R1 pivot point while remaining above their daily, weekly and monthly VWAPs. We could see an early breakout attempt during today's session towards the cycle highs, although traders should note the July VPOC at 162.69, which aligns with last week's high and could provide resistance.
Bulls may also want to tread carefully around the cycle highs and take note of the pre-NFP price action, as it could trigger another pre-emptive pullback. Even so, several support levels are clustered around 162, including the 2024 high, the weekly pivot point and Monday's VPOC.
It could then come down to the US inflation report to determine whether we see a meaningful breakout or a deeper pullback. While a hot CPI report could tempt bulls to push above 163, I suspect the bigger move may come from a softer-than-expected print. That could see USD/JPY rotate lower within its recent choppy range between 160 and 162.50.
Ultimately, I suspect CPI will need to surprise decisively to the upside for any breakout above 163 to prove sustainable.
Source: ICE, TradingView
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com
AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen Compared with USD/JPY, volatility remains lower on AUD/JPY. Yet it has caught my attention because it presents several clusters of support and resistance that could provide attractive trading setups. It also partially removes some of the event risk associated with the US inflation report.
The daily chart shows prices oscillating between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. Momentum has turned slightly lower from last week's high and monthly pivot point, while Monday's shooting star signals a failed attempt to retest Friday's doji high.
Even if prices spike above last week's high, the June VPOC sits at 113.09 and could provide resistance, followed by the May VPOC at 113.48. While 112 may offer initial support, a break below that level brings the 100-day EMA into focus, near the Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervention low.
Key Points:Gold’s safe-haven appeal remains weak as the Middle East conflict drives oil and inflation expectations higher, reinforcing tighter Federal Reserve policy expectations.Gold, silver, and mining stocks have resumed their decline after Friday’s corrective bounce, with silver showing particular weakness.A break below gold’s rising support line could accelerate losses toward new 2026 lows, especially while the U.S. dollar holds above its key breakout level.
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Gold, silver, and mining stocks declined once again in tune with my previous analyses.
The war reached its loudest point yet over the weekend, and gold fell into it once more. That much is now familiar. What matters today sits underneath the headlines, in the rate market, where the one thing that lifted gold last week is quietly being taken away.
Oil Spike Crushes Safe-Haven Narrative Go back ten days. A soft jobs report, 57,000 against more than a hundred thousand expected, pulled the odds of a September rate hike down toward half and handed gold its bounce off the lows. That was the whole of the rally. It was never about the war, and it was never about safe-haven demand. It was a rate story, a brief window where the market thought the Federal Reserve had room to ease. That window is closing.
The oil spike out of the Strait has pushed inflation expectations back up, and the market has priced a September hike back toward two thirds. The way one analyst framed it captures the shift: the weak payrolls number drained the rate-hike bets out of the market, and the re-closing of the Strait is putting them back. The reprieve that lifted gold is being revoked, and the metals are turning lower again.
Look at what the oil is doing to gold, because it cuts twice. Over the weekend, the United States struck Iran across three nights, hitting more than three hundred targets in a week, and Iran hit back at American bases in five Gulf states. Iran then declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. A year ago, that combination would have sent gold vertical. Instead, gold sold off, because the market no longer reads the Gulf as a reason to buy the metal. It reads it as a reason to buy oil, and higher oil means higher inflation, a firmer Fed, and a stronger dollar, which is the exact chain that has driven this decline. So the same conflict that denies gold a safe-haven bid also produces the oil that takes back its rally. The war works against gold from both ends now.
The price is doing what that backdrop demands. Gold has given back Friday’s bounce, silver is leading the way down, and the whole sector is rolling over together. Friday’s move up, when physical buyers stepped into the selloff and the mining stocks, and FCX reached the levels I had flagged, was the corrective pause I described it as. Today, the trend reasserts.
Please note that gold futures are holding at their rising support line based on July lows. Once this level is taken out, the decline is likely to accelerate. And then even more so once gold breaks to new 2026 lows, which could happen as early as this week (no promises, though).
In silver’s case, we see something similar, and the implications are the same.
The dollar sits where it has sat through all of this, on its breakout above 100, and it does not need to do much. It is holding while the metals break, and every failed rally in gold is one more confirmation of it. As long as the dollar holds that line, the pressure on the sector stays in place.
Please note that USD’s rising support line is below the current price and it wasn’t touched. It wouldn’t be odd if we saw a move back to it before another bigger rally starts – similarly to what we saw in the first half of June.
All in all, it looks like our profits are going to increase once again shortly.
As always, I will keep my subscribers informed.
Thank you for reading today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses – sign up for our free gold newsletter now.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
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Being passionately curious about the market’s behavior, PR uses his statistical and financial background to question the common views and profit on the misconceptions.
Spot silver weekly chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView A drop below Friday’s low of $57.22 would indicate continued weakness toward that next support zone, where traders will look for signs of support to emerge. Nonetheless, there remains the possibility that support could fail in that price zone as well. If that occurs and silver records a decisive decline below $54.23, the lower target would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $48.29.
Resistance Must Break to Shift Momentum Key near-term resistance is defined by a range from around $60.77 to $61.34, with the higher level represented by the falling 20-day moving average. Before there is a chance for higher prices, the 20-day moving average must first be reclaimed, followed by further signs of strength. Until then, the bearish trend remains in control, leaving the support levels discussed above as the market’s primary focus.
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Silver price remains below $60.00 as the week begins, diving nearly 4% on Monday amid tensions in the Middle East. Hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller underpin the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is up by over 0.28%. The XAG/USD trades at $57.50.
XAG/USD price forecast: Technical outlookThe downtrend in Silver seems poised to continue as the market structure of successive lower highs and lower lows is respected. Also, the XAG/USD is about to breach the July 8 daily low of $57.22, which if achieved would open the path to test the November 13, 2025 high, which has since turned support at $54.39. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the $50.00 milestone.
Conversely, for a bullish resumption, XAG/USD must clear a key resistance trendline at around $62.25-$62.50, before interrupting the downward market structure if bulls clear the July 6 high at $63.28. If hurdled, this clears the way to challenge $65.00. Once surpassed, Silver could aim toward the $70.00 region.
XAG/USD Price Chart - Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The New Zealand Dollar recoiled during Monday’s North American session, down 0.12%, as the Greenback posted gains versus most G8 FX currencies amid rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish comments from a Fed Governor. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5754, down from daily highs of 0.5789.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Kiwi Dollar remains downward biased, with the pair standing below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5819, for the twenty-fifth consecutive trading day. This is despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising rates and opening the door to further tightening.
Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests that buyers are in charge, though, as of writing, it signals further consolidation ahead.
For a bearish continuation, the NZD/USD must drop below the psychological 0.5700 figure. Below this area lies the July 8 low of 0.5672, followed by 0.5650. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 0.5600 milestone.
Upwards, the first resistance is the July 10 daily high at 0.5794, ahead of 0.5800. Above this level lies the confluence of the 50- and 200-day SMAs at around 0.5812-0.5819, respectively, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.5835 and by the 0.5850 mark.
NZD/USD Price Chart - Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.25%0.33%0.42%-0.00%0.47%0.13%0.66%EUR-0.25%0.08%0.17%-0.26%0.25%-0.09%0.42%GBP-0.33%-0.08%0.09%-0.34%0.17%-0.15%0.38%JPY-0.42%-0.17%-0.09%-0.43%0.05%-0.25%0.28%CAD0.00%0.26%0.34%0.43%0.50%0.21%0.73%AUD-0.47%-0.25%-0.17%-0.05%-0.50%-0.28%0.25%NZD-0.13%0.09%0.15%0.25%-0.21%0.28%0.53%CHF-0.66%-0.42%-0.38%-0.28%-0.73%-0.25%-0.53% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
USD/JPY Talking Points: USD/JPY has broken above and held above the 160 level and of late it’s been the 161.95 level that’s been of contention. USD/JPY has been one of the more attractive majors for USD-strength and I retain that view as we trade into the second half of the year. For this week it’s all about CPI, and a hot reading here could stoke rate hike potential in the US which could further prod USD-strength and, in turn, USD/JPY gains. For a while now my favored major pair for USD-strength is USD/JPY, and that remains in force as we trade into the second half of the year. At this point USD/JPY is on the verge of fresh 40-year highs and the next obvious waypoint along the way is the 165.00 handle that was last in-play back in 1986.
USD/JPY Monthly Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview As inflation forces have continued to uptick in the US the disparity between American and Japanese monetary policy keep that as a major theme, and I think there’s quite a bit of misunderstanding amongst retail traders around the background for such a move. Even this morning on social media I had someone remark that Japanese policymakers wouldn’t allow for the USD/JPY spot rate to push past 163, for a few different reasons.
But what I think is often missed is the fact that it’s a free market and that’s not entirely up to just one or two decision makers, and the going price is the going price as that’s what’s determined by the market with known facts at a given point in time. Yes, those facts can change, but the true reason for the trend and the rationale for why price is above 160.00 is the disparity between rate regimes of the two nations.
Japan has been hesitant to hike rates too quickly as that threatens to not only choke off growth, but to invite back the disinflation or even deflationary symptoms that have plagued the nation for much of the past thirty-plus years. So while they could effectively hike rates to strengthen the Yen, there’s consequences that they likely don’t want to deal with of that avenue.
If US rates are at 3.5% and Japanese rates at 1.0%, there’s opportunity there, as a hedge fund can go to a Japanese bank and borrow at a low rate and then invest that capital elsewhere at a higher rate, pocketing the spread. The only problem at that point is they’re essentially long Yen which risks whatever spread might exist.
The types of market players to exploit this disparity aren’t usually the type that just sit in a hedge, so they’ll try to be pragmatic about it, looking to buy dips or bid support rather than just chasing breakouts to offset the risk of a weakening Yen. This rate disparity invites a reason for demand to stick around, through short-term market cycles, such as we’ve seen for the past few years.
Well, Why Don’t They Just Intervene? This is where I think a lot of the retail confusion comes from, as interventions can obviously bring counter-trend moves such as we’ve seen multiple times in the past few years. But they are far from a panacea, and really, they’re a contortion of logic and financial drive.
As noted above as long as there’s disparity investors are being incentivized to borrow cheaply from Japan and then invest elsewhere to pocket the spread. USD/JPY is just more of a representation of that as an investor doesn’t want to take on the currency risk so they offset that with a hedge.
For those investors, intervention can be a desirable thing, as it makes the hedge cheaper and allows for the longer-term trend to continue from a more advantageous entry point. But for the intervening nation, that stop run amounts to burning finite capital reserves to produce a pullback that didn’t last.
So, perhaps the primary hope for intervention, considering that Japanese policymakers likely want to avoid up-ending their growth projections by aggressively hiking rates, is that US inflation calms or slows down to the point where that rate differential can narrow with US rate cuts, or at the least, slower US rate hikes.
This is what happened back in 2022. It is not what is happening right now.
USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Tactical Strategy and Short-Term Dynamics The benefit of longer-term charts such as the monthly and weekly varieties shown above is they have a tendency to downplay or mute much of the noise that’s ever-present on shorter-term charts.
Oftentimes there can appear a disconnect between the two, but if reconsidered from a different perspective this can also be seen as possible opportunity, similar to how a hedge fund holding a hedge position in USD/JPY for a carry trade might look at the matter. The big item around the US Dollar this week is an incoming CPI print. If this comes out hot, logically, odds can build for a possible rate cut from the Fed this year, which has helped the USD to stay relatively strong.
That CPI print is unpredictable, just as price is; but – if it does come out below expectations and we see odds for a rate hike temper a bit, that could create a pullback, and this pullback is where the opportunity may show for a trader looking at the big picture. There’s a few contingencies that must be considered, however, as even the reaction to that unpredictable CPI print is also unpredictable.
On a big picture basis the prior resistance zone of 158.88-160.00 would be an attractive area for support to show from prior resistance. That’s quite far from price, however, and there’s already been a couple of higher-lows above that area, so if it does come into play we’d probably need to see a slow CPI print and perhaps even some Fed-speak talking up rate cut potential. While this might seem like an outlier, we have to keep in mind that Kevin Warsh was just nominated by President Trump with a keen eye on rate cuts ahead of mid-terms. So, it’s a possibility that must be considered.
Above that, at 160.73, we have a spot of prior resistance that’s already shown as support. For a deeper pullback scenario, this would be the ideal spot for bulls to step in, disallowing for a re-test of the big figure at 160.00. This would illustrate some optimism from buyers in responding to a dip if they don’t even allow for prices to drop all the way to the psychological level.
And on that note, 161.95 should be considered, as this was the high back in 2024 and it’s since come in as resistance which bulls are still battling with today. This would be a nearby and shorter-term area of support, but if the trend remains strong and those ‘big picture’ bulls remain on the sidelines looking to take advantage of short-term weakness to bid long-term strength, that’s a spot of support potential that could possibly be worked with.
USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
The Pound Sterling begins the week on a lower note, as over-the-weekend developments in the Middle East fueled inflationary pressures due to the rise in Oil prices. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3369, down over 0.20%. Read More...
British Pound remains subdued as US-Iran tensions lift US DollarGBP/USD remains in negative territory after paring daily losses, trading around 1.3390 during the early European hours on Monday. The pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground on rising safe-haven demand amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East. Read More...
British Pound remains depressed below 1.3400 as escalating US-Iran tensions underpin USDThe GBP/USD pair finds some support near 1.3370 after a modest gap-down opening on Monday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below 1.3400. Nevertheless, spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled the pullback from a nearly four-week high, around the 1.3450 area, touched on Friday amid mixed fundamental cues. Read More...
Gold price (XAU/USD) plunges on Monday after remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who revealed that if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises this week, the Fed should consider interest rate hikes. The XAU/USD drops nearly 3% below $4,000 as traders eye a retest of the yearly low near $3,900.
XAU/USD dives as Waller ties CPI upside to rate hikes.Governor Waller stated that a high reading in core inflation “would force near-term consideration of a rate hike.” Despite being hawkish, he still sees it as credible that inflation could reach the 2% goal without higher rates and stated that the labour market is closer to the Fed’s maximum-employment goal.
In the meantime, geopolitics continued to drive Gold prices. The US and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend despite signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that intended to keep the ceasefire going.
Tehran’s attacks on shipping vessels prompted retaliation from the US. US CENTCOM confirmed the attacks on more than 100 military targets, aimed at dismantling Iran’s forces near the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran then attacked gulf region nations that host US bases. Tehran said over the weekend that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic. Energy prices have jumped since the resumption of hostilities amid fears of a supply disruption, with the US crude Oil benchmark, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), rising nearly 6% on Monday to $75.70.
Given the backdrop, investors had priced in 33 basis points of Fed tightening toward the end of the year, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalCatalysts for the Gold priceAhead this week, the release of US inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony in front of the US Congress could be the main drivers of XAU’s price action. A rise in inflation and a hawkish Warsh could set the table for a rate hike, sooner rather than later.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold drops below $4,000 on Fed's hawkish tiltPrice action shows that the series of successive lower highs and lower lows is being respected, with Gold poised to continue its downtrend. Bears continued to gather momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is approaching oversold territory.
All that said, XAU/USD first support would be the year-to-date (YTD) low of $3,941. A breach of the latter will expose the October 28, 2025 swing low of $3,886 ahead of dropping toward the $3,500 mark.
For a bullish continuation, Gold must surpass the $4,000 figure, followed by a downslope resistance trendline at around $4,170. Above the latter, the $4,200 psychological level looms.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Anyway, it is clear that the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated quickly. Most likely, Iran would respond by attacking vessels that did not receive approval for passage. Iran’s allies Houthis may also try to attack ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Treasury yields moved higher as bond traders reacted to rising geopolitical tensions. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.26% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.61%. Rising Treasury yields put material pressure on gold markets in today’s trading session.
Not surprisingly, U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders bet on hawkish Fed. Strong dollar is bearish for gold and other dollar-denominated commodities as it makes them more expensive for buyers who have other currencies.
Currently, gold is trying to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the next support, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.
On the upside, gold needs to settle back above the $4050 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum. In this case, gold will head towards the resistance at $4180 – $4200.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has eased towards 1.4140 after the Canadian Dollar extended last week's gains following another resilient domestic labour market report.
Scotiabank believes the May-June decline in the Canadian Dollar has now likely run its course, with improving economic data helping stabilise sentiment towards the Loonie.
The bank notes that June's employment report was broadly supportive despite job growth being concentrated in part-time positions. An unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, stronger wage growth and another increase in hours worked all point to firmer economic momentum after a sluggish start to the year.
According to Scotiabank, "the May/June trend decline does appear to have bottomed out."
The bank cautions that the Canadian Dollar may struggle to strengthen significantly further unless expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening begin to fade.
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank believes the US Dollar's strong rally is losing momentum, although a decisive bearish reversal has yet to develop.
The bank says a sustained break below the 1.4140-1.4150 support zone would strengthen the case for a move towards 1.4075-1.4085, while resistance around 1.4250 should continue to cap any renewed USD gains.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD +0.30%-0.19%+0.55%-0.46%-0.01%-1.25%+1.00%EUR-0.30% -0.48%+0.26%-0.75%-0.31%-1.54%+0.70%GBP+0.19%+0.48% +0.74%-0.27%+0.17%-1.06%+1.19%JPY-0.55%-0.26%-0.74% -1.00%-0.56%-1.79%+0.45%CAD+0.46%+0.76%+0.27%+1.01% +0.45%-0.80%+1.47%AUD+0.01%+0.31%-0.17%+0.57%-0.44% -1.24%+1.02%NZD+1.26%+1.56%+1.08%+1.82%+0.80%+1.25% +2.28%CHF-0.99%-0.70%-1.18%-0.45%-1.45%-1.01%-2.23%
The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Swiss Franc, where Canadian Dollar made its strongest advance. Data comparing prices today (13/07/2026 15:08 UTC) and daily close on 06/07/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders reacted to the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/CAD was mostly flat as traders focused on the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY climbed towards the 162.50 level amid rising Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Oil Prices Rally
DXY 130726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on geopolitical developments. President Trump said that U.S. will impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports. He added that U.S. will become a “guardian” in the Strait of Hormuz and would charge fees at a rate of 20% on all cargo shipped.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range.
EUR/USD Retreats As Traders Bet On Hawkish Fed
EUR/USD 130726 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. Brent oil gained 5% as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would drop after U.S. decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran. Most likely, Iran will try to attack vessels passing through the Strait without the country’s permission.
EUR/USD failed to settle above the resistance at 1.1420 – 1.1435 and pulled back towards the 1.1400 level. If EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1400 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Pulls Back Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions GBP/USD 130726 4h Chart GBP/USD moved lower as traders worried that rising oil prices will force the Fed to raise rates sooner rather than later, which would be bullish for the American currency.
In case GBP/USD declines below the 50 MA at 1.3366, it will get to the test of the support at 1.3335 – 1.3350. A move below the 1.3335 level will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
USD/CAD Remains Stuck Near Support At 1.4125 – 1.4140 USD/CAD 130726 4h Chart USD/CAD continued its attempts to settle below the support at 1.4125 – 1.4140 despite the strong pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined towards the psychologically important $4000 level, while silver pulled back below $58.00. Other commodity-related currencies were mixed in today’s trading session.
If USD/CAD settles below the 1.4125 level, it will move towards the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025. On the upside, USD/CAD needs to stay above the 1.4140 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/CAD will head towards the 50 MA at 1.4185. A move above the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the resistance at 1.4225 – 1.4240.
USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rise
USD/JPY 130726 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.60%.
If USD/JPY stays above the support level at 161.50 – 162.00, it will move towards recent highs near the 162.80 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 162.80, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 165.00 level. It remains to be seen whether Bank of Japan is ready to provide support to the Japanese yen.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The euro is forecast to come under renewed pressure against the US dollar this month as rising energy prices reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer, according to ING. ING believes the deteriorating situation in the Gulf is proving more supportive for the US dollar than the euro, with higher oil and natural gas prices creating a particularly difficult backdrop for energy-importing Europe while simultaneously keeping US inflation concerns alive.
Why Higher Energy Prices Favour the US Dollar According to ING, two themes are dominating currency markets: rising energy prices and strong demand for higher-yielding currencies.
The bank argues that renewed disruption risks in the Gulf are strengthening the US dollar because higher energy costs could keep Federal Reserve tightening expectations alive.
At the same time, Europe remains more vulnerable to higher energy prices, with natural gas costs beginning to climb again at a time when inventories remain relatively low.
That combination leaves the euro at a disadvantage against the dollar in the near term.
Why the Euro Is Losing Momentum ING says last week's corrective rebound in EUR/USD has already started to lose momentum.
The bank notes that higher gas prices have capped the euro's recovery, while a relatively quiet Eurozone economic calendar means energy markets are likely to have a greater influence on short-term price action than comments from European Central Bank officials.
EUR/USD was trading close to 1.1414 on Monday afternoon after remaining largely unchanged over the past week, having already fallen more than 2% during June.
The Federal Reserve Holds the Key ING believes upcoming US inflation data and testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be the biggest catalysts for EUR/USD this week.
Although headline inflation may soften, the bank expects rising energy prices and resilient core inflation to keep the prospect of another Fed rate increase firmly on the table.
If markets continue to believe US interest rates could remain higher for longer, the dollar is likely to stay well supported against lower-yielding currencies such as the euro.
What's the Forecast for the Euro versus the US Dollar? ING expects EUR/USD to drift lower in the near term outlook.
The bank believes the exchange rate can easily fall towards 1.1360 and says a test of the 1.1300-1.1325 area is possible later this month if energy prices continue rising and markets maintain expectations for tighter US monetary policy.
Even so, ING does not expect that area to give way easily, suggesting it is likely to provide an important floor for EUR/USD during the summer unless the macroeconomic backdrop deteriorates further.
EUR/USD Forecast FAQWhy does ING expect EUR/USD to weaken?
ING believes higher oil and natural gas prices favour the US dollar by keeping expectations for Federal Reserve tightening alive while simultaneously weighing on the euro through higher European energy costs.
What is ING's near-term EUR/USD target?
ING believes EUR/USD can fall towards 1.1360 initially, with scope to test the 1.1300-1.1325 area later this month.
Why are natural gas prices important for the euro?
Europe remains heavily exposed to imported energy. Rising gas prices increase inflation risks and can weaken the region's growth outlook, making the euro less attractive.
What could stop EUR/USD falling?
A decline in energy prices or signs that the Federal Reserve no longer needs to consider another interest rate increase would reduce support for the US dollar and could help stabilise EUR/USD.
Gold prices have rebounded from June's sharp correction, but RBC Capital Markets believes investors should be prepared for further volatility before the precious metal resumes its longer-term advance.
Gold (XAU/USD) traded around $4,165 after recovering more than 3% in July, following an almost 12% decline in June that briefly pushed prices below $4,000.
Image: Gold price in US dollars - 1 day chart Gold Outlook: Short-Term Risks Remain RBC says investors should not assume the recent rebound marks the start of a sustained rally.
"While we remain of the view that gold's upside story is not over, there remains the risk of near-term weakness."
The bank believes higher US interest rates and a stronger Dollar could continue weighing on bullion in the short run.
However, RBC argues much of the current macro outlook has already been priced into gold.
"We think risk is skewed to the upside in the medium term, especially towards year end."
The bank expects several potential catalysts—including renewed geopolitical uncertainty, softer US Dollar sentiment and changing expectations for bond yields—to help gold regain momentum.
"We think it's a mistake to hinge our view on the current consensus views being baked into gold prices."
RBC also believes structural demand remains intact, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold while investors are unlikely to remain underweight indefinitely.
"We think central banks remain supportive and that investors will not sit on the sidelines indefinitely."
Image: XAU/USD 6 month chart Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: RBC Says Volatility Should Give Way to Higher Prices Although RBC expects further short-term weakness cannot be ruled out, the bank continues to believe the broader bull market remains intact.
It argues that once current concerns over higher interest rates and Dollar strength begin to fade, long-term drivers such as government debt, reserve diversification and geopolitical uncertainty should once again support higher gold prices into year-end.
At the time of writing, gold was down about 1.5% and was looking quite bleak amid the strength in USD and bond yields. The yellow metal closed in the red last week, unable to build onto the small gains from the week before. The underlying trend remains bearish. While gold may still be up a tiny bit this month, it had fallen more than 11% in June, which was its fourth consecutive losing month. Thus, the path of least resistance and the gold outlook remain to the downside and I am still expecting a breakdown below the $4,000 level soon.
Gold outlook: It is all about oil prices again The renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher again at the start of this week. This has weighed on equity markets. Under normal circumstances, you might expect gold to perform better in that environment because of increased demand for safe-haven assets. However, as I’ve mentioned before, gold has increasingly traded in line with the S&P 500 over recent years, with investors treating it more as a risk asset than a traditional safe haven.
If oil prices continue to push higher, that will only reinforce expectations that the Fed could remain more hawkish over the coming months. If that happens, I think the outlook for gold remains tilted to the downside.
Dollar likely to remain supported on oil On top of that, the stronger US dollar is adding further pressure. Given that the Fed’s new chairman has made it clear that he wants to keep inflation under control, another spike in oil prices is likely to reinforce expectations that US interest rates will stay higher for longer. Even if some of the near-term economic data softens, persistently high energy prices would make it difficult for the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance.
That is one of the reasons why we’re seeing the US dollar regain momentum, particularly against currencies whose economies are heavily reliant on imported energy, such as the euro and the Japanese yen.
CPI and Fed testimony among key highlights As oil and natural gas prices climb, investors are becoming increasingly reluctant to price out further Fed tightening, providing the greenback with another tailwind and this is weighing on gold’s appeal. From a data point of view, the focus now turns to a busy week for US economic data and Federal Reserve officials. Tuesday’s inflation report will be closely watched, with headline CPI expected to ease on a monthly basis. However, firmer energy prices and sticky core inflation, still hovering around 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, suggest it remains premature to rule out another rate increase before the end of the year.
Markets will also hear from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as he begins two days of testimony before Congress. Investors will be looking for any clues on the policy outlook. The calendar also includes producer and import price data and retail sales.
Technical gold outlook and key levels to watch Turning to the charts, the technical gold outlook also remains bearish. The metal has struggled in recent days to climb back above the $4,100 level, and instead it has remained below both the bearish trend line and the 21-day exponential average. Price is now approaching the $4,000 level ahead of the release of US CPI on Tuesday.
Source: TradingView.com For that reason, I’m looking for a break below the $4,000 level. If we get a daily close beneath it, then the next downside targets come in around $3,900, followed by $3,800 on the daily chart of XAUUSD.
Resistance above the $4100 area comes in around $4,136 initially, followed by $4,200 and then at $4275.
With energy prices firming and little evidence that the US economy is slowing enough to offset inflation risks, the fundamental backdrop continues to favour the dollar. That leaves zero- and low-yielding assets like the yen, franc and gold particularly vulnerable.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts sellers on Monday after renewed fighting between the United States (US) and Iran over the weekend revived energy-driven inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $58.30, down more than 2% on the day.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 71% chance of a rate hike in September, up from 57% a week earlier. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on non-yielding assets such as Silver.
The US economic calendar is light on Monday, leaving traders focused on geopolitical headlines. Attention then turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, which could shape near-term interest rate expectations and drive the next move in XAG/USD.
On the daily chart, XAG/USD remains largely range-bound between $55.50 and $62.50, a structure in place since late June. Silver holds well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.37 and the 100-day SMA at $73.87, keeping the broader bias tilted to the downside.
Momentum remains weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 37 staying below the neutral 50 level. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers slightly in positive territory, pointing to a modest loss of selling momentum but falling short of confirming a recovery.
On the upside, initial resistance stands at the upper boundary of the range around $62.50. A clear break above this level could open the door toward the 200-day SMA at $70.37, followed by the 100-day SMA at $73.87.
On the downside, the $55.50 level remains the key support. A decisive break below this floor would end the current consolidation phase and expose Silver to another leg lower.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Death Cross and Macro Factors Intensify Downside Pressures The $4000 level, I think, extends down to the $3900 level, and if that is going to be the case, then I suspect we could see this market drop down to $3500 before it’s all said and done. If we do get a little bit of a rally from here, then I think it should be viewed through the prism of selling signs of exhaustion. I just don’t have any interest in buying gold at the moment.
I think rates and the US dollar are both working against the value of gold long-term. Long term I like it, but we would have to get the situation in the Middle East sorted out, and I just don’t think we’re anywhere near that at the moment, so I think gold continues to slump in this environment. This is a market that is a situation that remains very fluid, and I think bearish in general. I would make it a point to be a trader who uses a small position size, as the headlines continue to see a lot of volatility in risk appetite.
Silver is trading under the $60 level, with support at $57 and $50 marked below. Source: TradingView. The silver market has shown itself to be a little bit negative during the early part of the trading session on Monday, as the attacks in the Middle East, of course, are causing some concerns out there when it comes to risk appetite. Keep in mind, though, from a longer-term standpoint, silver most certainly has a lot of demand out there and not enough supply. So, with that being said, I think you’ve got to look at this as a situation where traders are going to look at a lot of concerns in the form of the US dollar and higher rates.
Macro Headwinds Threaten Key Technical Support Boundaries And as long as both of those are strong markets, the rates and the US dollar, that puts a little bit of downward pressure here. If we break down below the $57 level, I suspect it opens up a drop down to the $50 level. If we rally from here, I think those who are looking a little more short-term at the markets will interpret rallies that show signs of exhaustion as selling opportunities.
EUR/USD trades with a mild positive bias on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) gives back its earlier gains. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1424 after recovering from an intraday low of 1.1384.
The Greenback opened the week higher after the United States (US) and Iran exchanged missile and drone attacks over the weekend. Washington struck targets in southern Iran, while Tehran targeted US military facilities across the Gulf. Iran also claimed that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz.
In an interview with Fox News on Monday, US President Donald Trump said the United States would be the “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and added, “We had a deal, and they broke it.”
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slips back below 101.00 after touching an intraday high of 101.22.
The US Dollar has failed to benefit from the latest hostilities as markets see little chance of the fighting turning into a full-blown war, while diplomatic efforts continue.
However, the US Dollar’s downside appears limited, as the situation remains fluid and energy-driven inflation concerns return to the forefront. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil is up more than 3% on Monday, trading around $74.00 per barrel.
ING analysts noted, “With energy prices turning bid again and no signs of an imminent slowdown in US activity to take the sting out of higher prices, (keeping Fed tightening prospects alive), the Dollar should hold onto its gains.” They added that the Greenback is likely to remain favoured against low-yielding energy importers such as the Euro and the Japanese Yen.
Traders are increasingly pricing in a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike by year-end, while also expecting another rate increase from the European Central Bank (ECB).
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday and the Eurozone’s final inflation figures on Friday will be closely watched for fresh clues about the monetary policy outlook on both sides of the Atlantic.
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.09%0.29%-0.10%0.19%-0.29%0.17%EUR0.08%0.17%0.35%-0.03%0.28%-0.16%0.26%GBP-0.09%-0.17%0.22%-0.20%0.12%-0.32%0.14%JPY-0.29%-0.35%-0.22%-0.41%-0.11%-0.55%-0.07%CAD0.10%0.03%0.20%0.41%0.31%-0.12%0.34%AUD-0.19%-0.28%-0.12%0.11%-0.31%-0.40%0.06%NZD0.29%0.16%0.32%0.55%0.12%0.40%0.47%CHF-0.17%-0.26%-0.14%0.07%-0.34%-0.06%-0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bounces back to near 1.3400 as US Dollar turns upside downThe British Pound (GBP) recovers its early losses and flattens around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair bounces back as the US Dollar surrenders its opening gains and turns negative amid hopes that renewed hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran won’t be prolonged.
In the late European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower at around 100.85. Read more...
British Pound remains subdued as US-Iran tensions lift US DollarGBP/USD remains in negative territory after paring daily losses, trading around 1.3390 during the early European hours on Monday. The pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground on rising safe-haven demand amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched additional airstrikes on Sunday evening, following striking more than 300 Iranian targets over a three-night span, including 140 on Saturday. The purpose is to neutralize Iran's capability to target civilian vessels navigating critical waterways. This military escalation has left Washington and Tehran issuing conflicting declarations regarding whether the strategic strait remains open to maritime traffic. Read more...
British Pound remains depressed below 1.3400 as escalating US-Iran tensions underpin USDThe GBP/USD pair finds some support near 1.3370 after a modest gap-down opening on Monday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below 1.3400. Nevertheless, spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled the pullback from a nearly four-week high, around the 1.3450 area, touched on Friday amid mixed fundamental cues.
Former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham secured the support of the vast majority of Labour MPs to replace Keir Starmer and become Britain's next prime minister, calming concerns about political instability. This, along with bets for at least one 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate hike from the Bank of England by the end of 2026, lends some support to the British Pound (GBP). However, escalating US-Iran tensions benefit the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and might keep a lid on any further upside for the GBP/USD pair. Read more...
Energy prices are once again setting the tone for currency markets, with the renewed tensions in the Middle East reinforcing the dollar’s appeal while weighing on low-yielding and energy-importing currencies. As oil and natural gas prices climb, investors are becoming increasingly reluctant to price out further Fed tightening, providing the greenback with another tailwind. This is keeping the near-term EUR/USD forecast tilted to the downside.
Dollar remains bid as oil climbs on fresh escalation At the weekend, the US launched fresh strikes on dozens of Iranian military targets after Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Targets reportedly included air-defense systems, radar installations, missile and drone capabilities, and naval assets. In retaliation, Iran said it targeted US military bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, as well as radar systems in Oman.
The latest exchanges mark a significant intensification of tensions between Washington and Tehran. Last week, US President Donald Trump declared that the US-Iran ceasefire was “over” and sharply criticized Iran’s leadership. What it means for the markets is that the re-escalation has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. No commercial vessels have transited the waterway since Sunday evening, according to reports tracking shipping data. In turn, oil prices have surged higher again.
With crude oil rising once again, the obvious question is: what does this mean for the US dollar?
Given that the Fed’s new chairman has made it clear that he wants to keep inflation under control, another spike in oil prices is likely to reinforce expectations that US interest rates will stay higher for longer. Even if some of the near-term economic data softens, persistently high energy prices would make it difficult for the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance.
That is one of the reasons why we’re seeing the US dollar regain momentum, particularly against currencies whose economies are heavily reliant on imported energy, such as the euro and the Japanese yen.
Should Iran succeed in disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for al lengthy period of time once again, the US is likely to be viewed as relatively insulated thanks to its energy independence. At the same time, higher oil prices would add to inflationary pressures, making it harder for the Fed not to signal intentions of policy tightening.
US CPI and Warsh testimony in focus The focus now turns to a busy week for US economic data and Federal Reserve officials. Tuesday’s inflation report will be closely watched, with headline CPI expected to ease 0.1% on a monthly basis, lowering the year-over-year rate to 3.8% from 4.2%. However, firmer energy prices and sticky core inflation, still hovering around 2.9% year-on-year, suggest it remains premature to rule out at least one rate increase before the end of the year.
Markets will also hear from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as he begins two days of testimony before Congress. Investors will be looking for any clues on the policy outlook. With energy prices firming and little evidence that the US economy is slowing enough to offset inflation risks, Warsh is unlikely to sound dovish at all. So, the fundamental backdrop continues to favour the dollar.
That leaves low-yielding, energy-dependent currencies such as the euro and the yen particularly vulnerable, meaning that the EUR/USD forecast is tilted to the downside. Of particular concern for Europe is the renewed strength in natural gas prices, especially with inventories still relatively low and demand rising (for air cooling systems) amid elevated summer temperatures.
Technical EUR/USD forecast and key levels to watch That combination leaves the euro exposed. In the near term, the EUR/USD could drift back towards the 1.1350 region, with a follow-up move into the 1.1300 area looking increasingly plausible over the coming days and weeks.
Source: TradingView.com There is also a bearish flag pattern to consider, too. If there EUR/USD breaks below the support trend of the pattern, which is what I expect, then at the very least I’d anticipate a retest of the recent lows around 1.1324.
Below that the 1.1300 area would come into focus. This level also lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the major advance we saw between March and April. Given what’s happening in the oil market, together with the prospect of a more hawkish Fed, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD still appears to be to the downside.
Resistance is seen around 1.1450, followed by the 1.1480-1.1500 region.
Meanwhile, the European data calendar is relatively quiet this week, meaning short-term moves in the euro are likely to be driven more by developments in energy markets and shifts in US rate expectations than by domestic fundamentals.
The British Pound (GBP) recovers its early losses and flattens around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair bounces back as the US Dollar surrenders its opening gains and turns negative amid hopes that renewed hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran won’t be prolonged.
In the late European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower at around 100.85.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.10%0.09%0.26%-0.16%0.14%-0.34%0.07%EUR0.10%0.20%0.35%-0.06%0.25%-0.20%0.19%GBP-0.09%-0.20%0.17%-0.25%0.08%-0.38%0.04%JPY-0.26%-0.35%-0.17%-0.43%-0.13%-0.58%-0.14%CAD0.16%0.06%0.25%0.43%0.31%-0.12%0.29%AUD-0.14%-0.25%-0.08%0.13%-0.31%-0.41%0.00%NZD0.34%0.20%0.38%0.58%0.12%0.41%0.43%CHF-0.07%-0.19%-0.04%0.14%-0.29%-0.01%-0.43% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
During the day, a spokesperson from the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that efforts from Qatar, Oman and Pakistan to mediate tensions with the United States (US) are continuing, while accusing Washington of violating the memorandum of understanding (MoU) terms.
Meanwhile, military aggression between the US and Iran continues as Iran's Mehr News Agency stated during the European trade that several explosions were heard around Iran's Bandar Abbas and Qeshm island. However, the news has not been confirmed by major media outlets.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June and the United Kingdom (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for May, which are scheduled for Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades calmly near 1.3400. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as spot trades above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3344, but the overall trend appears sideways amid the Descending Triangle formation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 55 leans to the topside but remains shy of overbought territory, hinting at constructive yet not overstretched momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the downward resistance trend line break price near 1.3528, and a daily close above this barrier would open the way for a more sustained advance. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 1.3344, and a drop back below this moving average would ease the current bullish tone and expose deeper pullbacks toward the June 30 low at 1.3212.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (MoM) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends losses on Monday, with price action drifting below the $4,100 line, amid a risk-off market mood, as tensions between the US and Iran flare. From a wider perspective, however, the precious metal remains within previous ranges, with momentum indicators hinting at fading bearish pressure.
The Yellow metal came under renewed pressure at the week's opening as US and Iran ramped up their hostilities over the weekend. Beyond that, Tehran announced the closure of the key Strait of Hormuz, sending Oil prices higher and pressuring global central banks to hike interest rates further. This boosts treasury yields and weighs on the yieldless Gold.
The US Dollar (USD), however, has failed to draw support from the risk-averse market. The USD Index, which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of peers, nurses mild losses as investors await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Tuesday, and the testimony of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh to Congress, to confirm market expectations of upcoming rate hikes.
Technical Analysis: Bullish divergence on RSI studies
XAU/USD trades at $4,061, keeping a capped bias as it holds below the downward resistance trendline yet with a bullish divergence on the daily RSI, which is trending towards neutral levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also turning positive, suggesting that bears might have lost steam.
Bulls, however, should break above the trendline resistance, now at $4,150 and last week's trading top, at the $4,200 area, to invalidate the descending wedge pattern and aim for mid-June highs around $4,380 and late May highs around $4,600.
On the downside, the pair has a cluster of supports between the July 9 low in the $4,020 area and the late October 2025 lows near $3,885. Further down, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the late-June downleg is at the $3,835 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.12%0.06%0.24%-0.18%0.08%-0.40%0.03%EUR0.12%0.18%0.35%-0.06%0.21%-0.25%0.16%GBP-0.06%-0.18%0.20%-0.25%0.05%-0.41%0.02%JPY-0.24%-0.35%-0.20%-0.43%-0.16%-0.61%-0.17%CAD0.18%0.06%0.25%0.43%0.28%-0.16%0.27%AUD-0.08%-0.21%-0.05%0.16%-0.28%-0.42%0.01%NZD0.40%0.25%0.41%0.61%0.16%0.42%0.44%CHF-0.03%-0.16%-0.02%0.17%-0.27%-0.01%-0.44% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on the back foot as renewed tensions in the Middle East lift Oil prices and bring inflation concerns back into focus, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,061, down 1.44% on the day after touching an intraday low of $4,045.
The US and Iran exchanged missile and drone attacks over the weekend. Washington struck southern Iran, while Tehran targeted US military facilities across the Gulf.
Tehran claimed it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, the US maintains that the waterway remains open and says it is escorting vessels.
The US Dollar (USD) and crude Oil prices opened the week higher, putting pressure on the precious metal, although both have since given back some of their earlier gains.
WTI trades around $73.75, up nearly 3.25% on the day but below its intraday high of $74.96. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, slips back below 101.00 after touching an intraday high of 101.22.
Gold is struggling to recover as the prospect of higher interest rates remains a key headwind. “Stabilizing US labor market conditions and sticky inflation will keep Fed funds rate pricing hawkish,” analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) said.
BBH added that markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike by year-end and nearly 50 bps of tightening over the next twelve months.
Higher borrowing costs generally weigh on Gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
With the economic calendar largely empty on Monday, traders now turn their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Tuesday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony will also be closely watched for fresh clues about the central bank’s interest rate outlook.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD stays under pressure with $4,000 in focus
On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias, trading below the 20-day Bollinger Band middle line near $4,118.50. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 40, remaining below the neutral 50 threshold and reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 37 indicates that the broader downtrend remains well defined, suggesting recovery attempts could remain limited unless Gold reclaims the Bollinger mid-band.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 20-day Bollinger SMA around $4,118.50, followed by a horizontal cap at $4,200 and then the upper Bollinger band near $4,288.50, with a stronger barrier at $4,400.
On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the $4,000 horizontal floor, ahead of the lower Bollinger band clustering around $3,948.50, where a break would open the door to a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The GBP/USD pair retreated from a multi-week peak of 1.3452 toward following a sudden flare-up of US-Iran conflict The escalating geopolitical risk revived global safe-haven demand for the US dollar and pushed crude oil prices sharply higher While near-term technicals point to range-bound consolidation, the medium-term path remains tied to UK GDP growth and central bank divergence. The GBP/USD pair reached a high of approximately 1.3452 last week, its strongest performance since mid-June, driven by increased economic optimism in the UK. However, this upward trend paused at the start of the new trading week.
Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, specifically concerning shipping lanes in the Middle East, caused a significant market reaction. This led to a decline in the GBP/USD pair, bringing it back to around 1.3383 and raising concerns about the durability of sterling’s recent gains.
How Did We Get Here? Sterling’s upward movement last week was primarily influenced by expectations regarding the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Market participants have factored in at least one interest rate increase anticipated for later in 2026, with a possibility of a second, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns. Additionally, political transitions, including the recent resignation of Keir Starmer and the expected leadership of Andy Burnham, contributed to a more stable market sentiment.
However, market sentiment has recently shifted. The weekend saw significant missile and drone exchanges between US and Iranian forces. Reports indicate that Iran launched attacks on American installations in the Gulf and potentially closed the Strait of Hormuz.
This development led to a jump in Brent crude prices of around 3-4% as trading commenced in Asia. According to Reuters, this combination of rising oil prices and inflation fears, coupled with a move towards safe-haven assets, strengthened the US dollar globally.
During periods of heightened military tension, the US dollar typically serves as a primary safe-haven asset. This often prompts institutional investors and corporate treasuries to quickly reallocate capital away from riskier assets and into more liquid U.S. Treasury securities.
The Dollar Has The Upper Hand In The Near-Term In the near term, the GBP/USD exchange rate will probably see some selling, and the pair will likely be range-bound. While the geopolitical situation is causing some choppiness now, it probably won’t change the overall direction for the long term. Typically, during these kinds of crises, investors flock to the dollar for safety. However, this effect usually doesn’t last if tensions ease or talks begin again.
Looking further ahead, though, this conflict probably won’t drastically change the bigger economic picture. The British pound is in a stronger position than it was in past years. The UK economy has shown consistently positive surprises in its data, and the upcoming GDP numbers are expected to show a good recovery.
How Should Investors Position Themselves? Investors should be careful right now. If you hold British pound assets, you might want to consider protecting yourself against the dollar getting stronger, perhaps by using options or spreading out your currency holdings.
For traders, a more sensible move is to see dips as opportunities to buy rather than signs of a major downturn. While at it, be sure to pay close attention to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report coming out on Tuesday. Also, keep an eye out for any indications that the Strait of Hormuz might be disrupted for a long time, as that would be a real threat to this outlook.
After several strongly positive weeks, USD/CAD has stalled over the past few sessions, entering a phase of uncertainty.
On the dollar side, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a firm tone, reaffirming the 2% inflation target and pushing back against political pressure to cut rates, while sticky PCE inflation near 4% keeps hike odds alive for September. Yet June payrolls came in softer and speculative USD positioning looks stretched, raising doubts on how much further the rally can extend. Markets will also watch upcoming US CPI and PPI releases closely, as either gauge could reinforce the Fed hike case or, if softer, cap dollar strength.
The loonie’s story is similarly mixed. Canada’s June jobs report beat expectations, reducing the odds of a BoC cut, yet the currency remains capped by falling oil prices, subdued inflation, and unresolved CUSMA trade uncertainty. Two currencies face both genuine support and headwinds, leaving USD/CAD hostage to this week’s BoC decision and incoming US data—a backdrop that aligns well with what the chart itself is showing.
USD/CAD Technical analysis
As the 4H chart shows, USD/CAD has traded within a well-defined ascending channel since May’s lows, and is now consolidating just below recent swing highs. The Fibonacci retracement drawn from that low to the July high offers a useful reference for the levels ahead.
Bullish Scenario
As long as price holds above the ascending trendline and defends the former resistance, now turned support, in the 1.4100 area, the broader uptrend structure remains firmly intact, and this pause looks far more like healthy consolidation than an early reversal signal. A confirmed bounce off the trendline, followed by a decisive push back above the recent swing high near the 1.4250 area, would validate continued bullish control and open the way for USD/CAD to extend its rally into fresh highs for the move, keeping the dollar’s medium-term strength against the loonie firmly in place.
Bearish Scenario
A clean, sustained break below the ascending trendline would mark the first real technical warning sign, shifting near-term momentum decisively lower. In that case, the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels would become the first meaningful support tests, coinciding with the psychological 1.3900-1.4000 range. Losing these levels could expose a deeper slide towards the 0.618 retracement—an area that would confirm a genuine correction of the entire May-to-July rally rather than a simple pullback, and would put the pair’s medium-term bullish structure into serious question.
With price sitting right on the ascending trendline, the coming sessions could prove decisive in determining where USD/CAD heads next.
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Gold edged lower after opening with $20 gap lower on Monday, following the latest escalation in the Middle East that fueled inflationary risk and added to expectations that the Fed will keep higher interest rates or possibly opt for rate hikes, providing support to US dollar.
Markets also focus on this week’s key economic data – release of US June inflation report and Fed Chair Warsh’s semiannual testimony on economy, inflation and monetary policy that will add fresh details on overall outlook.
Technical studies on daily chart remain in mainly bearish configuration, following several death-crosses formed during June (20; 30; 55 / 200DMAs), 14-d momentum holding in negative zone and RSI below 50).
Fresh weakness after recent recovery stall, shifts near-term focus to the downside, with initial requirement on weekly close below Fibo support at $4076 (where bears were rejected four times) guarding key supports at $4000/$3950 (psychological / recent spikes below $4K), with firm break here (after a multiple failure) to generate bearish continuation signal of larger downtrend from new historical high.
At the upside, falling 20DMA marks first significant resistance ($4118), ahead of pivotal barrier at $4203 (July 6 recovery peak).
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The USD/INR has resumed its upside move, taking tout a critical resistance as Iran announces a new closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Current Setup and Live Chart The USD/INR is trading higher this Monday after renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran took a new turn, with Iran announcing it would close the Strait of Hormuz once more on Sunday evening. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already affected oil prices, with Brent crude spiking to near $79 per barrel. The situation threatens to restart the oil-shock risk premium, which could significantly increase India’s energy import bills. India is a net energy importer, with most of its oil imports coming through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. This makes the rupee sensitive to the blockade and the attendant increase in oil prices.
A sustained increase in Brent crude prices means India has to pay more rupees for higher oil (priced in US Dollars), widening the current account deficit. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) typically acts to smooth volatility amid the rupee’s weakness, but the momentum has decidedly shifted back towards the US Dollar.
USD/INR Macro Drivers 1) Rising oil prices
Oil prices are up 2.84% this Monday, taking the rupee to 1-month lows as the renewed geopolitical escalation brings back the threat of elevated oil prices. Brent crude may not be close to $100 yet, but it could be if the blockage persists. Elevated oil prices increase the Indian government’s import payments for this product. Because oil is priced in US Dollars, higher oil prices mean more rupees are required to pay for higher USD-priced crude oil. There is also a higher risk of imported inflation and a wider current account deficit. Companies listed on the Indian exchange also face greater pressure on margins from higher fuel costs. This is how rising oil prices impact the USD/INR pair.
2) Safe-haven Demand
The escalation introduces global economic uncertainty. This leads to a flow of capital away from risk-associated assets and into defensive and safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar. The US Dollar gains from safe-haven demand and is a global liquidity currency of preference. During this time, there is reduced appetite for emerging-market FX, which includes the rupee.
3) RBI intervention
The Reserve Bank of India typically intervenes to smooth price movements when volatility is excessive. Interventionist moves by the RBI include sales of more dollars from the country’s forex reserves, open market operations, and liquidity management measures. Interventions do not lead to trend reversals; they only cause retracements to support levels at best, or make uptrend moves more gradual rather than sharply overextended.
This Week’s Price Catalysts for the USD/INR 1) Developments in the Strait of Hormuz: For this week, this is the primary price catalyst for the USD/INR. The markets will be looking out for the state of oil shipping activity, the level of export disruptions, and developments on the military and diplomatic front. In other words, headlines around the Strait of Hormuz will be significant price catalysts for the pair. The rupee will benefit from greater diplomatic engagement, military de-escalation, and a lower scale of disruption to oil shipping than previously feared.
2) Brent crude prices: the day-to-day changes in oil prices will directly impact the rupee and the level of risk aversion in the global markets (the driver of safe-haven demand for the US Dollar). If oil prices keep rising, risk aversion will increase, leading to more capital outflows from Indian stocks, which will put more pressure on the rupee.
3) RBI communication and foreign portfolio flows: The markets will watch out for any interventions by the RBI that match the scale of the previous major intervention of three weeks ago, additional commentary from the apex bank, and data around the flows of foreign portfolio funds into and out of Indian equities and bonds.
USD/INR Weekly Forecast Scenarios Base case: a bullish USD/INR, triggered by elevated crude oil prices, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and stronger-than-expected safe-haven demand for the greenback. RBI intervention is expected to moderate the pair’s uptick.
Bull case: strong bullishness on USD/INR will result from an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, to the point that oil prices start heading towards the $100 mark. This scenario will also see increased dollar demand as portfolio funds exit the Indian market and seek reconversion to the US Dollar as it seeks new destinations. We would also see a sharp rise in India’s energy import bills, requiring more rupees to pay for higher-priced, USD-denominated energy imports. This scenario also generates sustained risk aversion, which supports the US Dollar and harms emerging-market FX. A price of USD/INR 96.00 cannot be ruled out in this case.
Bear case: an unwinding of the risk premium via a rapid de-escalation of the conflict, the reopening of the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, and an accompanying oil price decline allow India’s import bills to drop. Furthermore, investor confidence in emerging-market currencies will be boosted, leading to a retracement in USD/INR towards recent support levels.
Takeaway The USD/INR has shown itself to be one of the currency pairs that have direct exposure to the geopolitical conflict and the energy price complex. The pair’s direction is directly correlated with the escalation of the conflict and with oil prices.
USD/INR Technical Outlook The double bottom on the trendline and the 94.04 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 8 April – 20 May uptick led to a breach of the 95.24 resistance and former high of 30 March and 5 May. The break of this barrier has unlocked the pathway towards a reclaim of the 20 May high at 96.99. If this all-time high is exceeded, the uptrend is confirmed and the 98.23 resistance formed by the 27% Fibonacci extension level comes into view.
Fig 1: USD/INR daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 13 July 2026) However, a breakdown of the 95.24 price level that now acts as a role-reversed support and the trendline confirms the retracement move, targeting a retest of the 94.04 support initially. If the bulls fail to defend this support, the 93.25 price mark and neckline of the 8 April/17 April double bottom comes into view. If the bears degrade this support, a new pivot lines up at 92.24, the 100% retracement and 8 April low.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) posts marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as the pair's reversal from Friday's 0.6970 highs found support above 0.6120. Rising tensions in Iran have hammered risk appetite, but the US Dollar’s weakness is keeping the Aussie from retreating further.
US and Iran escalated hostilities over the weekend, and Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting Crude prices. This adds pressure to central banks to hike interest rates in order to contain inflation, in a context of sluggish global growth.
The Aussie, however, is drawing some support from the US dollar’s weakness. Risk aversion has failed to support the Greenback on Monday, as investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, due on Tuesday, and the testimony of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh to the US Congress.
Technical Analysis: Aussie breaks the descending trendline
AUD/USD trades at 0.6941, holding a constructive near-term bias after breaking and confirming above the trendline resistance from early June highs. The four-hour Relative Strength Index is trading back and forth around 50, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers near the zero line, highlighting a lack of a clear bias.
On the topside, Bulls need to break Friday's highs, in the 0.6970 area and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June selloff, at 0.7020, to confirm a bullish reversal and target the Mid June highs around 0.7085. On the downside, session lows at 0.6923 are likely to provide some support ahead of the broken trendline, at 0.6880 and the June 30 low at 0.6865.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
