Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

WSJ: TAO Synergies Appoints Bittensor Investor and Author Mark Jeffrey as Advisor

Key Highlights Ondo Finance debuts Ondo Perps, pioneering the use of tokenized equities as collateral for perpetual futures contracts International traders gain access to 20x leverage on equities, ETFs, and commodities with round-the-clock availability Collateral options include tokenized versions of Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Micron, precious metals, and energy commodities Ondo Global Markets surpassed $1 billion in total value locked following its September 2025 debut First-week participants eligible for $150,000 USDC reward distribution Ondo Finance has unveiled a groundbreaking perpetual futures exchange that enables the unprecedented use of tokenized equities as trading collateral. Named Ondo Perps, this innovative platform has officially opened its doors to pre-alpha participants located outside U.S. territory.

LATEST: ⚡️ Ondo Finance says its Ondo Perps platform now lets pre-alpha traders use tokenized stocks as collateral for perpetual futures on commodities and stocks. pic.twitter.com/oXXPtVRbiy

— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) July 8, 2026

The exchange operates continuously around the clock, seven days weekly. Qualified international users can engage with the platform at their convenience, liberated from conventional market trading windows.

Ondo Perps facilitates perpetual futures contracts spanning U.S. equities, exchange-traded funds, and commodity markets. The available asset roster encompasses Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Micron, S&P 500 exposure through SPCX, QQQ, along with gold and silver commodities.

Users can directly deploy their tokenized equity holdings as trading collateral. This innovation eliminates the necessity for maintaining separate cash deposits across multiple platforms.

Leverage capabilities extend up to 20x multipliers. This functionality enables traders to establish positions valued at twenty times their initial collateral commitment.

Platform Mechanics and Infrastructure Ondo Perps draws its liquidity from established traditional financial market sources. According to the company, this approach delivers spreads and market depth rivaling those found on traditional derivatives platforms.

The system processes order routing, margin adjustments, and liquidation procedures instantaneously. Ondo maintains that execution velocity equals the fastest centralized cryptocurrency exchanges while preserving decentralized architecture.

Stablecoin deposits also qualify as acceptable collateral forms, supplementing tokenized securities and ETFs. Users retain flexibility in selecting their preferred margin posting method.

Ian De Bode, serving as President of Ondo Finance, characterized the platform as representing “the first time a permissionless equity perps platform has been built with the infrastructure required to unlock liquidity, speed, and capital efficiency comparable to traditional derivatives markets.”

Market Development and Advancement Ondo Global Markets, the tokenized equity infrastructure powering this platform, has maintained approximately 5% weekly growth since its September 2025 introduction. Current total value locked has climbed beyond the $1 billion threshold.

Ondo recently incorporated tokenized representations of BlackRock’s iShares Core S&P 500 ETF alongside Micron equity shares mere days prior to this platform debut. These additions followed a custodial framework the SEC delineated in January.

Previously, Ondo extended access to more than 100 U.S. stocks and ETFs via blockchain technology to investors throughout Asia-Pacific regions, Europe, Africa, and Latin America.

Ondo Perps remains unavailable to residents of the United States, Panama, and additional restricted territories. Ondo Global Panama Inc. manages platform operations.

As an incentive for inaugural participants, Ondo has allocated $150,000 in USDC rewards tied to trading volume during the opening week.

This debut positions Ondo Perps as a competitive alternative to established crypto derivatives venues including Ostium and Hyperliquid.

Tokenized equities have predominantly served as passive on-chain holdings until now. Ondo’s innovation transforms them into functional collateral within an active derivatives trading ecosystem.

Liverpool FC has made exploratory contact with Club Tijuana over a potential transfer for Gilberto Mora, the 17-year-old attacking midfielder who became one of the breakout stories of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The teenager helped Mexico advance to the knockout stage, and now half of Europe’s elite clubs are circling.

Mora’s release clause sits at approximately $20 million following a contract extension with Tijuana through 2029.

The transfer race and what Liverpool is up against Liverpool isn’t alone at the table. Real Madrid, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea have all reportedly shown interest in the Mexican teenager.

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No agreement has been finalized between Liverpool and Tijuana. The contact remains exploratory. Given the competition from clubs with equally deep pockets, Liverpool will need to move with conviction if they want to land Mora.

Tijuana appear to have played the contract situation well. Extending Mora’s deal through 2029 and setting a $20 million release clause gives them significant leverage. Any buying club now has to meet that threshold or negotiate a fee that satisfies a selling club under no pressure to sell.

What this means for the broader market The competition for Mora also signals something about Liga MX’s rising profile as a talent pipeline. Mexican football has traditionally been undervalued by European scouts compared to South American leagues like Brazil’s Serie A or Argentina’s Primera División. A $20 million release clause for a teenager suggests that gap is closing.

For Liverpool specifically, landing Mora would represent a statement of intent about the club’s long-term squad planning. The Reds have built recent success on a model of developing young talent rather than exclusively buying proven commodities.

The risk for Liverpool is straightforward: wait too long and Real Madrid or Manchester City could swoop in with a more attractive package. Given that five of Europe’s biggest clubs are all looking at the same player, whoever moves first with a compelling offer to both Tijuana and Mora’s camp will likely win the race.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) slips below $70 on Wednesday, extending a steady decline so far this week. A broader market risk-off sentiment weighs down on the retail support for HYPE despite steady institutional demand, with $4.32 million in inflows on Tuesday. 

Technically, HYPE is poised for a steeper decline toward a support trendline near $64.75, reinforced by the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.36.

HYPE loses retail strength despite firm ETF inflowsHyperliquid is losing retail demand as broader crypto market risk-off sentiment persists. CoinGlass data shows the HYPE futures Open Interest (OI) is down over 2% in the last 24 hours to $2.79 billion, implying that traders are either reducing leverage or closing positions. The positional easing aligns with $7.18 million in total liquidations in the same period, led by $6.31 million in long liquidations, reaffirming sell-side dominance. 

However, the funding rate remains stable in the positive range of 0.0078%, reflecting residual bullish sentiment, with some hoping for a rebound. 

On the institutional side, demand holds steady with HYPE ETFs recording $4.32 million in inflows on Tuesday, after $8.43 million on Monday. This divergence in institutional and retail activity reflects short-term weakness but long-term upside potential.

HYPE ETFs data. Source: Sosovalue

HYPE derivatives data. Source: CoinGlassCould HYPE extend losses below $60?Hyperliquid trades around $68 at press time on Wednesday, maintaining a broader bullish bias as price holds above the 50-day EMA at $62.36, which sits well above the 200-day EMA at $48.40. HYPE shows a mild short-term weakness with the third consecutive day of losses so far this week, capped by a local resistance trendline near $72.75 on Monday.

From a technical perspective, the pullback suggests a steeper correction toward a rising support trendline near $64.75, backed by the 50-day EMA at $62.36.

Momentum is constructive, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) modestly above its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 shows mild bullish momentum easing toward a neutral range.

HYPE/USD daily price chart.On the topside, the key hurdle is the downtrend resistance line break zone at $72.73, where a decisive daily close above could reinforce the bullish bias and open the way toward the R1 and R2 Pivot Points at $77.09 and $89.14, respectively.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

https://99bitcoins.com/cryptocurrency/hyperliquid-review/

Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual futures exchange, has burned 16% of its HYPE token supply in under two years as US stock perpetuals emerge as a key driver of volume on the platform. Notably, stock-linked perpetuals now rank among the most traded pairs, trailing only Bitcoin and HYPE itself. This activity highlights the crypto market’s expansion and ability to capture volume traditionally dominated by conventional finance. The platform’s unique structure allows for continuous activity, even on weekends, when traditional markets are closed, offering leverage and synthetic exposure to equities like Nvidia (NVDA).

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Key Takeaways Hyperliquid’s token burn and volume growth suggest increased platform activity and engagement. The rise of US stock perpetuals on Hyperliquid indicates a shift towards crypto derivatives capturing traditional finance volume. Market pricing appears supportive of Hyperliquid reaching its price targets by the end of 2026, with December 31 odds currently at 38.5% YES. What to Watch Monitor Hyperliquid’s continued ability to capture weekend volume as a potential indicator for further price movement. Developments such as major partnerships or technological innovations could influence market sentiment and pricing. Additionally, any changes in regulatory landscapes or security incidents might impact market confidence and Hyperliquid’s competitive position.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.

Term Structure

Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 38.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.9% — — View market → January 1 2027 71.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.1% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.5% — — View market →

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World Liberty Financial’s USD1 has gone from a March 2025 launch announcement to the fourth-largest stablecoin in the world in roughly fifteen months, overtaking PayPal’s PYUSD and Sky’s DAI along the way. Its rise has been driven less by retail adoption than by a handful of enormous institutional deals — most notably a $2 billion settlement between Abu Dhabi-based MGX and Binance that was paid entirely in USD1 — and by the fact that the project sits inside a company co-founded by the Trump family. Here’s what USD1 actually is, how it works, and what to weigh before using it.

Key Takeaways USD1 is a US dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and custodied by BitGo Trust Company under a South Dakota trust charter Reserves consist of cash, short-term US Treasury bills, and government money market funds, verified through monthly AICPA-standard attestations and a live Chainlink-powered proof-of-reserves dashboard Circulating supply has grown from about $3.3 billion at year-end 2025 to roughly $4.5 billion by mid-2026, making USD1 the fourth-largest stablecoin behind USDT, USDC, and Sky’s USDS, according to DefiLlama’s stablecoin tracker USD1 runs natively on around ten blockchains, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, Tron, Solana, Aptos, and the Stripe-backed Tempo L1 World Liberty Financial is majority-owned by a Trump family business entity, which is entitled to a share of token sale proceeds and stablecoin profits — a fact worth knowing before treating USD1 as a neutral financial product USD1 Price Today MetricValuePrice~$0.9987Market Cap~$4.45B24h Volume~$775MCirculating Supply~4.46B USD1Holders~617KRank#4 stablecoin by market cap Live price and supply data via CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap.

Note: as a stablecoin, USD1’s price is designed to stay near $1.00 — deviations of more than a fraction of a cent typically signal peg stress rather than “price movement” in the way a normal crypto asset would show it. For how USD1 fits into the broader market, see today’s crypto market overview.

What Is USD1? USD1 is a fiat-collateralized stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, the same company behind the WLFI governance token. Each USD1 is intended to be backed 1:1 by a corresponding dollar held in cash, short-duration US Treasury bills, and other cash equivalents through government money market funds. The stablecoin launched on Ethereum and BNB Chain in March 2025 and was designed from the outset for institutional settlement rather than retail spending — WLFI co-founder Zach Witkoff pitched it at launch as combining “the power of DeFi” with “the credibility and safeguards of the most respected names in traditional finance.”

That institutional framing has largely held up in practice. USD1’s fastest growth has come from large counterparty deals rather than organic retail demand — Forbes reported that Binance-linked wallets held roughly 87% of USD1 supply at one point, and Binance has run multiple liquidity-seeding campaigns, including a booster program that briefly offered up to 20% APR on USD1 deposits before being cut to 8%.

USD1 uses a standard mint-and-burn mechanism: new tokens are created only when an equivalent dollar amount is deposited with the custodian, and tokens are destroyed when holders redeem. BitGo Trust Company — which operates under a South Dakota trust charter — holds the reserves and processes institutional redemptions, typically within one to two business days. Retail holders generally don’t redeem directly with BitGo; instead, they convert USD1 to other stablecoins or fiat through exchanges and DEXs.

Two transparency mechanisms back the peg claim. A monthly attestation report, prepared by an independent accounting firm under 2025 AICPA criteria for asset-backed fiat-pegged tokens, confirms that USD1 tokens outstanding are matched or exceeded by reserve assets. A separate real-time proof-of-reserves dashboard, powered by a Chainlink oracle on Ethereum, shows total reserves, the collateralization ratio, and supply by network on an ongoing basis. World Liberty Financial introduced the live dashboard in February 2026, shortly after a brief depeg incident (more on that below).

It’s also worth knowing where the yield goes: interest earned on the underlying reserve assets accrues to BitGo and World Liberty Financial-affiliated entities — including a Trump-affiliated entity, DT Marks DEFI LLC — rather than to USD1 holders themselves. That’s standard practice across most fiat-backed stablecoins, including USDT and USDC, but it means holding USD1 doesn’t generate yield on its own; any return comes from separately supplying it to a lending protocol.

Which Blockchains Support USD1 USD1 launched on just two networks and has expanded aggressively since:

Ethereum and BNB Chain — the original launch networks and still the deepest liquidity venues Tron — where dollar-stablecoin transfer volume is heavily concentrated Solana — added as USD1 pushed into high-throughput DeFi Aptos, AB Core, Mantle, Monad, Plume, Morph — newer integrations added through 2025 and 2026 Tempo — the Stripe-backed layer-1, where USD1 launched natively in May 2026 as an early TIP-20 token Cross-chain transfers run on Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) rather than a proprietary bridge — a deliberate choice, since Circle’s competing CCTP standard is USDC-specific and unavailable to other issuers.

USD1 and World Liberty Financial USD1 can’t really be separated from the company behind it. World Liberty Financial was founded in late 2024 by Zachary Folkman, Chase Herro, and Zach and Donald Trump Jr., alongside other Trump family members, and describes Donald Trump as its “chief crypto advocate.” A Trump family business entity owns 60% of World Liberty Financial and is entitled to 75% of net proceeds from WLFI token sales as well as a share of stablecoin-related profits; by December 2025, the family had reportedly profited around $1 billion from token proceeds alone.

The project has also drawn foreign investment at a scale unusual for a young crypto company. A firm tied to the Abu Dhabi royal family purchased $2 billion of USD1 in 2025, and reporting from the New York Times indicated Abu Dhabi-linked interests separately agreed to acquire a 49% stake in WLFI. These ties, combined with the Trump family’s direct financial stake, have made USD1 a recurring subject of conflict-of-interest reporting rather than a purely technical stablecoin story — worth factoring in alongside the reserve and custody details above.

On the regulatory side, USD1’s structure is built to align with the GENIUS Act, the federal stablecoin law signed in July 2025 that requires full reserve backing, monthly public disclosure, and licensed-issuer status for payment stablecoins. Implementation is still ongoing through 2026, and in January 2026 a World Liberty trust entity applied for a US national banking charter, which — if granted — would give the issuer direct bank-grade infrastructure instead of relying solely on BitGo as custodian.

USD1 vs. USDT vs. USDC USD1USDTUSDCIssuerWorld Liberty FinancialTetherCircleMarket cap (mid-2026)~$4.5B~$170B+~$73BCustodianBitGo TrustTether InternationalRegulated banking partnersReserve attestationMonthly (AICPA standard)QuarterlyMonthlyChains~10, incl. Ethereum, BNB Chain, Tron, Solana15+20+Primary use caseInstitutional settlement, DeFi collateralTrading pairs, EM remittanceRegulated payments, DeFi USD1 is far smaller than the two incumbents and has no realistic path to displacing either in the near term. Its differentiation is regulatory positioning and political access rather than scale: it launched compliance-first under a framework built toward the GENIUS Act, and its sponsors have secured settlement deals — like the MGX-Binance transaction — that smaller or newer stablecoins typically can’t access.

Risks Worth Knowing USD1 briefly depegged to around $0.994 in February 2026, an incident WLFI attributed to a coordinated attack on co-founders’ social media accounts — a claim that hasn’t been independently verified. The peg recovered within roughly 30 minutes and reserves were confirmed intact, but the episode prompted the launch of the real-time proof-of-reserves dashboard described above.

Supply concentration is a separate concern: with the bulk of USD1 historically held in Binance-linked wallets, the token’s liquidity and price stability depend heavily on a small number of large holders rather than a broad, diversified base. World Liberty Financial’s own risk disclosures also note that USD1 is not legal tender and not deposit-insured, and that BitGo or WLFI-affiliated parties retain the ability to freeze or block specific addresses — a level of centralized control that’s common among regulated stablecoins but worth being aware of before treating USD1 as equivalent to holding cash.

Finally, USD1 is young and its issuer is young: World Liberty Financial has faced congressional scrutiny over conflicts of interest and, separately, a defamation lawsuit tied to public criticism of the project. None of this affects whether current reserves back current supply, but it’s relevant to how much institutional trust the project can sustain if political or legal pressure increases.

Where to Buy USD1 USD1 is listed on most major centralized exchanges as well as several DEXs:

Binance — deepest liquidity, multiple pairs including USD1/USDT and BTC/USD1 Coinbase — added USD1 support as part of WLFI’s push for mainstream accessibility Kraken, OKX, Bybit, Gate, MEXC, Bitget Raydium and PancakeSwap for on-chain swaps via Solana and BNB Chain respectively Self-custody wallets that support USD1’s underlying networks (MetaMask, Phantom, and similar) can hold the token directly using its contract address once added manually or through an exchange’s “add to wallet” integration.

Frequently Asked Questions What is USD1 stablecoin? USD1 is a US dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, a company co-founded by members of the Trump family. It's backed 1:1 by cash and short-term US Treasury securities held through custodian BitGo Trust, with monthly reserve attestations and a real-time proof-of-reserves dashboard.

How do I buy USD1 stablecoin? USD1 trades on major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, and Bybit, as well as decentralized exchanges like Raydium and PancakeSwap. Create an account on a supported exchange, deposit funds, and trade for USD1 directly or swap another stablecoin like USDT or USDC for it.

Who owns USD1 stablecoin? USD1 is issued by World Liberty Financial, which is majority-owned by a Trump family business entity entitled to 75% of net token sale proceeds and a share of stablecoin profits. Reserves backing USD1 are held by custodian BitGo Trust Company, not by World Liberty Financial directly.

Which blockchain is USD1 on? USD1 runs natively on roughly ten blockchains, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, Tron, Solana, Aptos, and the Stripe-backed Tempo network. Cross-chain transfers use Chainlink's CCIP protocol rather than a single native chain.

Is USD1 safe? USD1 is backed by cash and short-term US Treasuries held with a regulated custodian and publishes monthly attestations, similar to USDC's model. It briefly depegged in February 2026 but recovered within 30 minutes with reserves confirmed intact. As with any stablecoin, it isn't deposit-insured or legal tender, and holders should weigh custodial and issuer-concentration risk before use.

Cover image via depositphotos.com Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Amid active debates over the sale of part of its Bitcoin holdings for operational needs, Strategy's leadership is trying to seize the initiative from critics. CEO Phong Le defended the company's new corporate strategy by publishing strong financial results for the past three months.

From April 6 to July 6, the company increased its Bitcoin reserves by 10% and now holds a record 843,775 BTC, Le said.

For the 3 months April 6 to July 6, 2026, we increased our Bitcoin holdings 10% to 843,775 Bitcoin, increased our USD reserve 13% to $2.55B, and more than doubled YTD BTC Yield from 3.7% to 7.8%. $MSTR $BTC https://t.co/3SqgyK5mwu

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— Phong Le (@phongle) July 8, 2026 These figures came at a moment when the market began to question whether the course of the largest institutional Bitcoin investor remains unchanged. The 10% increase announced by Strategy's CEO is meant to prove that the net inflow of coins continues, while the company's operational resilience has improved. 

Strategy's dollar cash cushion increased by 13% to $2.55 billion, while the internal yield of its Bitcoin strategy since the start of the year more than doubled, rising from 3.7% to 7.8%.

Can Strategy's new Bitcoin framework save the firm's slumping debt?Company founder Michael Saylor quickly moved to clarify the logic behind this large-scale shift. He said that Strategy has finally outgrown the format of a passive accumulation wallet and now divides its assets into three different financial instruments.

In the new architecture, Bitcoin itself is defined as Digital Capital. The STRC token, whose obligations triggered the sales, serves as Digital Credit, while MSTR shares remain equity capital.

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Strategy's financial vehicles performance year-to-date 2026, Source: TradingView"Different instruments for different investors. But one strategy," Saylor said, explaining that targeted sales are part of balance sheet management.

Whether the record report will help protect the company's new flexible model in the eyes of investors remains an open question. 

So far, the stock market's reaction has been mixed: over the first eight days of July, the price of MSTR common shares rose by 9.4%, while debt instruments are under clear pressure, with instruments such as STRC and STRD trading significantly below their $100 par value, at $86.56 and $61.68, respectively.

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Retail traders have changed their minds four times in a single month, and the latest swing is raising eyebrows. Bitcoin’s bounce from $58.1K to the $64.1K area has flipped the crowd’s mood to “higher” again, according to the Santiment update. The speed of the reversal is the story, not the price level itself. In early June participants were calling for lower prices. Mid-June flipped to bullish. Late June turned fearful after the dip. Now they are back to expecting upside.

Chart watchers will note that every time the crowd got loud about direction this month, the market did something else. That is the mechanic Santiment is pointing toward—a counter-signal tendency where strongly unanimous social expectations tend to precede reversals or stalls. It does not promise a top, but it does suggest the herd is arriving late to the move.

Why the “Lower vs. Higher” Chart Matters Right Now The social trends query plots how aggressively the crowd is calling for “lower” or “higher” prices. When the ratio swings sharply into bullish territory after a quick price recovery, it often indicates that latecomers have rushed in. Bitcoin’s move back toward $64.1K has not been accompanied by a structural shift in liquidity or a major catalyst. Instead, the bid appears reactive, driven partly by relief that the sub-$60K break did not cascade.

That reaction matters for positioning. If buyers were not loading up during the panic, but only after the 10% bounce, the rally is drawing from thin fuel. In this light, the crowd’s bullishness is less a confirmation and more a flag for potential heat. Crypto rarely runs on consensus.

Short-Term Bullishness and the Altcoin Echo The same sentiment tracker shows that altcoins are getting caught up in the mood shift. Enthusiasm around smaller caps has ticked up alongside Bitcoin’s recovery, consistent with the risk-on reflex that takes hold after a scare subsides. This mirrors patterns seen earlier in the cycle where altcoin sentiment lagged BTC’s move by days, then amplified when the crowd grew comfortable.

But the very reactivity of retail mood—from fearful to optimistic in a week—underscores how fragile conviction remains. Participants are reacting to price, not fundamentals. That reactive posture is why Santiment’s chart functions as a market-mechanics signal rather than a belief survey. It tracks what people are shouting, and historically, shouting is not how sustained legs higher begin.

Traders watching the same data will likely look for a flush in open interest or a brief stabilization under resistance before trusting a continuation. The absence of a spot-led breakout and the rapid sentiment bounce reinforce the idea that the market needs a period of sideways digestion. For altcoins, that means the bounce in names that recently suffered sharp drawdowns may be a scalper’s trade rather than a genuine rotation.

What the Signal Leaves Unanswered Santiment does not assign a directional forecast. The data simply highlights that the crowd is leaning heavily in one direction, and that leaning tends to be wrong at extremes. What remains uncertain is whether this is an extreme or just a short-term emotional spike that will cool without a major correction. Macro flows, ETF demand, and regulatory developments all sit outside this dataset.

The broader environment still carries unresolved variables. Legislative wrangling continues around key policy bills—something that can shift institutional posture even as retail sentiment dances. The retail mood meter captures one layer of the market. On-chain flows, exchange reserves, and derivative positioning paint a fuller picture that may confirm or conflict with the social signal. For now, the crowd pendulum has swung back to “higher,” and as Santiment’s historical pattern suggests, that is when bulls should keep one foot near the door.

AUTHOR

Brenda is a writer with three years of experience specializing in cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies. She graduated from the University of Mombasa with a degree in Psychology. She has worked at Cryptopolitan and Blockchain Reporter.

Bitcoin’s June 2026 low near $58,000 does not meet the on-chain conditions that marked prior cycle bottoms. The floor sits below realized price, near $54,000, over a horizon that extends into Q4 2026.

Sentiment has reached extreme fear, while valuation and on-chain metrics sit above the levels recorded at the 2015, 2018, and 2022 lows. Every prior cycle bottomed below realized price. A move under roughly $54,000 is the minimum condition. The cycle bottom requires financial conditions to stop tightening: falling real yields, a weaker dollar, and receding Fed hike expectations. Bitcoin fell to roughly $57,950 on July 1, 2026, its lowest level in about 21 months, and closed June down near 20%. The decline places price roughly 50% below the October 2025 peak.

Late June also produced the first weekly close below the 200-week moving average. the average of the last 200 weekly closes, since 2023. The mood is bearish enough to feel like a bottom. The data says the bottom conditions are not in place.

The Technical Floor Sits Below Current Price Three levels sit below current price: drawdown from the cycle high, the 200-week moving average, and realized price. None has reached its prior-bottom reading.

The first is drawdown from the cycle high, the percentage decline from the peak. The current decline of roughly 50% is shallow against prior cycle lows of 77% to 85%.

The second is the 200-week moving average, a long-term trend line that has historically acted as cycle bottom zone. This level marked the bottom at the 2015, 2018, and 2022 lows, and currently is in the $62K-$63K range. Price closed below it first time in late June 2026.

The 2015 and 2018 breaches were reatively brief. The 2022 cycle was the exception: price spent roughly 16 months below the line, from June 2022 to October 2023. The FTX collapse in November 2022 prolonged that stay, forcing sustained selling and turning the 200-week average into a resistance. This cycle carries no comparable credit event, so a breach of similar length is unlikely. But still, the break below 200W moving average will still extend beyond a single week.

The third is realized price, the aggregate cost basis of the network, or the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain, which sits near $54,000 as of early July 2026. The metric matters because it converts price into a measure of aggregate profitability: when spot trades below realized price, the average coin is held at an unrealized loss, the condition of maximum holder stress that has historically exhausted forced selling and formed the base of each cycle.

Price has not yet touched this range. At every prior cycle bottom, it closed well below realized price. This is why many Bitcoin analysts have been flagging this level as a cycle-bottom target. The base case is a low that touches or modestly breaches the $53,000–$54,000 range, a shallow undercut in the low-$50,000s. That would be far milder than the 15%-28% realized price breaches seen in prior cycles. A deeper move toward the mid-$40,000s would require a forced-seller event on the 2022 FTX collapse scale. (We view this as a tail risk rather than the base case. The clearest candidate would be Strategy: if it were forced to liquidate Bitcoin to meet its debt, preferred equity, or other financing obligations, the resulting supply shock could produce a capitulation comparable to the 2022 FTX-driven selloff)

The Macro Floor Depends on Easing Financial Conditions Price levels alone do not set the low. Macro conditions also matter, especially for non-yielding assets. Just like gold, bitcoin is also a non-yielding asset, which is both highly affected by the real interest rate. When real yield rises, the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yield asset rises. Both assets moved a similar path in the first half of 2026, gold posted its worst quarter since 2013 as real yield climbed, and bitcoin sold off alongside.

Real yields, measured by inflation-adjusted Treasury yields, remained restrictive through the first half of 2026. The 5-year TIPS yield rose from around 1.3% in early May to 1.98% in early July. The dollar index (DXY) held firm over the same period. Fed hike expectations turned restrictive: at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair on June 17, 2026, the committee held at 3.50–3.75% while the dot plot lifted the median year-end rate projection to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, and the market began pricing a hike by year-end.

The sharp drop in Bitcoin coincided with the rise in real rates since May.

However, we view the dot plot’s shift reflects an energy shock rather than broad price pressure. The 2026 Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude above $120 at its spring peak and lifted May CPI to 4.2% year-on-year. That shock is now reversing: a US–Iran ceasefire has restored Strait shipping toward pre-war volumes, and Brent has fallen back near $70 as of early July 2026, close to its late-February level.

As the energy impulse fades through the second half of 2026, the rate-hike expectation embedded in the dot plot should fade with it.

Bottom Line Bitcoin’s June low near $58,000 does not meet the conditions that marked prior cycle bottoms. The minimum condition is a close below realized price, in the $53,000–$54,000 range, and history shows price can hold below that level for months. The timing of the bottom price will likely align with the Q4 2026 window and requires financial conditions to stop tightening.

In the near-term, real yields and rate-hike fears remain elevated, ETF flows are negative, and the on-chain indicators reset is incomplete. That combination points to a final leg of weakness that carries price below the $53,000–$54,000 realized-price range, and reset all on-chain indicators.

As the energy-driven inflation impulse fades through the second half of 2026, rate-hike expectations recede, the dollar softens, the debasement bid will returns to Bitcoin and gold.

Disclaimer: The information provided herein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and should not be treated as such. All content set out below is for informational purposes only.

Two Iranian drones targeted the ADNOC-affiliated crude oil tanker Barakah as it transited the Strait of Hormuz on May 4, marking the latest escalation in a Gulf shipping crisis that now touches both traditional energy markets and crypto. Oil prices jumped roughly 3.4% to around $112 per barrel on the news.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs wasted no time, calling the incident a “terrorist attack” and an act of “piracy” that violated international law. No crew members were injured, and no cargo was lost, but the diplomatic damage was immediate and significant.

What happened in the Strait The attack involved two drones striking the Barakah during its passage through one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints. Roughly 20% of globally traded petroleum passes through the Strait of Hormuz on any given day, which makes every incident there a market-moving event.

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This wasn’t an isolated episode. The strike came amid a broader pattern of escalating hostility in the Gulf, including US-Iran naval standoffs and multiple attacks on commercial shipping vessels. Oil prices had already exceeded $100 per barrel due to persistent disruptions before this latest incident pushed them higher.

The UAE’s response framed the attack as a direct threat to regional stability and freedom of navigation. Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council also condemned the attack, reflecting a unified regional stance against Iranian aggression.

Iran’s Bitcoin transit toll Reports indicate that Iran began imposing a Bitcoin-denominated transit fee on tankers passing through contested waters, reportedly around $1 per barrel, starting in April 2026. Bitcoin doesn’t route through correspondent banks in New York and isn’t subject to SWIFT bans, giving a sanctions-hit nation a currency that’s harder to freeze than dollars or euros.

Whether this toll is actually being enforced consistently, or whether it’s more of a symbolic provocation, remains an open question. But the mere fact that a state actor is linking petroleum transit to cryptocurrency payments represents a genuinely novel development in both energy geopolitics and crypto adoption.

What this means for markets Brent crude at $112 per barrel means higher energy costs rippling through every economy on the planet. Oil was trading below $80 as recently as late 2024.

If Iran continues collecting Bitcoin transit fees from tankers, that creates a small but persistent source of BTC demand tied directly to oil volumes. It also creates regulatory headaches for any shipping company that complies, since paying fees to a sanctioned nation in any currency, including crypto, likely violates Western sanctions regimes.

Traders should watch for whether other Gulf states or the US respond with countermeasures that specifically target crypto payment channels, whether Bitcoin’s correlation with oil prices tightens in coming weeks, and whether the attack prompts shipping insurance premiums to spike, which historically compounds the oil price impact of Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden has stated that Bitcoin is experiencing its lowest level of investor confidence so far in the current market cycle. Renowned for her research on Bitcoin, Alden emphasized that the long-term success of the asset should not depend on external support, but rather on its own core characteristics.

Investor sentiment weakens, cautious expectations dominateSpeaking in an interview with Natalie Brunell, Alden remarked that she does not expect any new external catalysts to propel Bitcoin higher at this stage. According to her, Bitcoin’s resilience will depend on its structural features—liquidity, permissionless use, and its function as a store and transfer of value.

Lyn Alden underscored that she sees no external factor on the horizon that can “rescue” Bitcoin, stressing that the asset should rely on its own inherent strengths to endure.

She went on to note that the recent downturn feels noticeably different from when Bitcoin dropped to $16,000 in 2022. At that time, she observed that investor interest remained more robust, whereas today, weakened narratives, a more sharply defined market structure dominated by companies, and widespread investor frustration have come to the forefront.

Given this context, Alden’s main scenario for the year does not foresee Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high. However, she did not completely rule out the possibility of a sharp upward move, given Bitcoin’s volatile nature. In the short term, the absence of new lows and a technical outlook that turns sideways or gradually upward are regarded as positive developments.

Pressure mounts on Strategy’s approachWith institutional adoption and corporate treasury strategies involving Bitcoin becoming significant themes in this cycle, attention has once again turned to companies like Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Earlier this week, Strategy disclosed that it had sold 3,588 BTC, amounting to a total value of $216 million.

Alden highlighted that, during downtrends, investors are scrutinizing the company’s Bitcoin-backed capital structure and preferential share products more carefully. She observes that, for investors seeking indirect exposure to the company’s Bitcoin strategy without holding BTC directly, instruments like STRC offer a specific function.

Glossary: STRC is one of Strategy’s preferred share products. Preferred shares often provide different returns and privileges compared to common stock and can give investors indirect access to certain strategies without having to hold the underlying asset directly.

While warning that higher-yield, BTC-linked products might encourage additional leverage among investors, Alden points out that the long-term performance of these instruments remains fundamentally tied to the price of Bitcoin.

She also commented that the company’s recent measures to enhance collateral structures and introduce further safeguards are reasonable. However, she cautioned that the effectiveness of these protective steps will ultimately depend on Bitcoin’s future price movements.

HeadlineDetailsStrategy’s sale3,588 BTCTotal sale value$216 millionAlden’s main scenarioNo new all-time high expected this yearDebate over Bitcoin protocol changes met with cautionAlden also touched on the discussions regarding Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110, or BIP 110. This proposal aims to limit high-data-volume transactions—including those used for visual storage—reducing undue congestion on the Bitcoin network.

Glossary: BIP stands for Bitcoin Improvement Proposal, the official process for introducing technical changes to the Bitcoin network. Such proposals undergo rigorous technical evaluation by developers, users, and ecosystem participants before implementation; they are not adopted automatically.

Alden explained that she generally approaches rapid changes to Bitcoin’s rules with caution. Some proposals, she notes, could make the network more complex or impact existing security mechanisms. She advocates for careful analysis of both the technical arguments for and against any protocol modification.

She also expressed criticism about how some proposals are publicly presented. Alden believes framing protocol changes as existential threats for Bitcoin may overstate their significance and does not provide the right perspective for public debate.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

COINTELEGRAPH: BTC speculators in focus as analysis says 'textbook Bitcoin bottom' is underway

Key Highlights Dow futures declined 1.08% while S&P 500 futures retreated 0.86% during premarket hours Alibaba stock surged 10% following positive updates on instant-commerce losses and robust AI cloud performance MasTec shares climbed 2% on news of its $1.65 billion Superior Group acquisition FuelCell Energy tumbled 18% following announcement of dilutive stock offering priced at $21.00 Bitcoin decreased 2.71% to $62,031 as Brent crude jumped 5.61% on geopolitical concerns Wednesday morning saw U.S. equity futures under pressure as escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran raised concerns about regional stability and oil supply routes through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Dow Jones futures retreated 1.08%, while S&P 500 futures declined 0.86%. Cboe Volatility Index futures advanced 2.03%, signaling heightened market uncertainty.

Traders were also anticipating the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes scheduled for afternoon release, contributing to the defensive positioning across markets.

The 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 4.574%, maintaining pressure on equities as borrowing costs remain elevated.

Alibaba Dominates Winners List Alibaba emerged as Wednesday’s top performer, with shares climbing approximately 10% during early market action.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, BABA

Company briefings revealed that its instant-commerce division saw losses shrink during the June quarter while maintaining overall profitability. This development alleviated investor concerns ahead of the scheduled August 28 earnings announcement.

Additional reports highlighted accelerating growth in Alibaba Cloud’s artificial intelligence operations, with the company moving to integrate its AI agent capabilities into a unified platform.

The tech giant also maintained its ongoing share repurchase initiative. The stock’s advance was accompanied by broader strength in Hong Kong-listed Chinese technology names, as capital flowed back into the sector on improving earnings projections.

MasTec advanced 2% following its announcement of a Superior Group acquisition valued at approximately $1.65 billion. The transaction structure includes $475 million in equity and $1.175 billion in cash.

Superior Group brings specialized capabilities in electrical infrastructure and building systems for data center facilities. MasTec anticipates the deal will immediately contribute positively to revenue, adjusted EBITDA, earnings per share, and operating cash generation.

Management forecasts Superior will produce revenue between $2.2 billion and $2.5 billion during fiscal 2027.

Losses Led by FuelCell and Kura Sushi FuelCell Energy experienced the session’s steepest decline, plummeting 18% after announcing a public equity offering of 10.71 million shares priced at $21.00 per share. The offering generated $225 million in gross proceeds, exceeding the initially targeted $200 million.

The underwriting syndicate received an additional option to purchase 1.61 million shares. The capital raised will fund manufacturing facility expansion and working capital requirements.

Kura Sushi declined approximately 5% after revising its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast downward to a range of $330.5 million to $331.5 million, falling short of the $334.1 million analyst consensus estimate.

Second-quarter revenue increased 16% on a year-over-year basis, though tariff-related pressures on food and beverage input costs negatively impacted forward guidance. Management noted that enhanced labor productivity helped boost restaurant-level operating margins to 19.1%.

Cryptocurrency and Commodity Markets Bitcoin declined 2.71% to trade at $62,031. Brent crude oil futures surged 5.61% on supply disruption concerns stemming from the Strait of Hormuz situation.

Gold futures retreated 2.30%. Asian equity markets also closed lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping 2.11% and China’s Shanghai Composite declining 0.49%.

Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham flags an $88 test transaction as the first on-chain activity from a tagged SpaceX address since early 2026.

A dormant SpaceX Bitcoin wallet just moved for the first time in six months, and the crypto market is paying close attention to what comes next.

In an X post, blockchain intelligence firm Arkham flagged the transaction on Wednesday, noting that a tagged SpaceX address made a test transfer of approximately $88 worth of Bitcoin to a second SpaceX-linked wallet.

The move, negligible in dollar terms, carries outsized significance for a different reason entirely, test transactions of this kind typically precede larger transfers.

Why this transaction is worth watchingIn an on-chain activity, small test transactions are rarely about the amount. They serve a specific purpose: verifying that a wallet address is operational and that funds can move cleanly before a larger transfer is executed.

The pattern is well established among institutional holders and large-scale Bitcoin owners who routinely run low-value test sends before committing significant sums.

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Arkham's tagging of the address as SpaceX means the firm's intelligence layer has identified the wallet as belonging to Elon Musk's aerospace company with reasonable confidence, based on on-chain clustering and other identification methods.

What SpaceX actually holdsSpaceX is among a small group of publicly known corporate Bitcoin holders, though the company has never disclosed the full size of its holdings.

Earlier reports have indicated SpaceX holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet, a position consistent with Musk's personal advocacy for the asset and his company's broader appetite for unconventional treasury management.

The six-month period of dormancy preceding the test transaction adds weight to the speculation. Wallets that sit untouched for extended periods before suddenly moving tend to generate significant market interest, particularly when they belong to entities of SpaceX's profile.

Whether this test precedes a larger move, a transfer to an exchange, a consolidation, or something else entirely, remains unknown. For now, the wallet has woken up. What it does next and what it means for the investors, is the only question that matters.

Published Wed, Jul 8, 2026 · 09:16 PM

[NEW YORK] Bitcoin tumbled as renewed geopolitical tensions rattled digital asset markets, eclipsing what had been a muted reaction to Strategy Inc’s latest sale of the token earlier in the week.

The largest cryptocurrency fell more than 3 per cent to around US$61,691 on Wednesday (Jul 8) as tensions flared up once more between the US and Iran. The selloff picked up steam after US President Donald Trump said the tentative ceasefire with Iran was over, raising the prospect of renewed military conflict between the two countries. Other cryptocurrencies, including Ether and Solana, also fell.

Bitcoin later pared some of its losses and was trading at around US$62,100 in early morning New York.

“Bitcoin took a quick dive after Trump’s comments, as the market frets about further fuel-linked inflation and potential rate hikes to counter it,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets. “We expect some support around US$61,500, but the market is likely to remain volatile as the geopolitical and macro situations develop.”

Brent crude advanced nearly 6 per cent to US$78.55 a barrel. Stocks extended declines, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping as much as 1 per cent and India’s Nifty 50 Index sliding 1.5 per cent. S&P 500 futures slid 1 per cent.

Trump’s comments came after the US carried out strikes on Iran, which followed attacks on commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides accused the other of violating the ceasefire.

Bitcoin had been looking stronger in July after a 20 per cent drop in June, its worst month in four years. The token is up about 5.5 per cent so far this month.

The cryptocurrency had been relatively resilient after Strategy – the Michael Saylor-founded company that has become the token’s largest corporate buyer – disclosed a US$216 million Bitcoin sale on Monday. Markets barely reacted to the news, a far cry from last month, when Strategy’s disclosure of its first Bitcoin sale since 2022 precipitated a selloff.

“A forced seller of that size not denting the market is a real signal worth noting,” said Sean Rose, an account executive at market intelligence firm Glassnode.

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Some long-term Bitcoin holders had also resumed buying before the latest Middle East flare-up, adding as many as 31,800 tokens per day to their holdings from June 20 to July 6, according to Glassnode. 

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, meanwhile, have added more than US$500 million in three consecutive days of inflows. Investors had pulled more than US$4.5 billion from the funds in June, their worst month since launching in early 2024.

Still, Bitcoin remains down more than 50 per cent since reaching a high above US$126,000 last October. The upside, however, may be lower risk. Glassnode’s Bitcoin Risk Index fell to 0.56 on July 6 from its maximum reading of 1 at the start of the month, which Rose said is “a real de-risking signal.”

Another sign is emerging. Bitcoin has been shaken in recent months by long-term holders taking profit when the token starts to recover, but there are signs that opportunities to do so may be drying up. Net unrealised profit/loss now sits at 0.17, according to a report from Bitrue Research Institute, suggesting most Bitcoin holders have little profit left to take.

As for Strategy, traders may no longer be viewing its decisions with the same apprehension, after having withstood two recent sales. The company has also announced structural changes, which give it broader authority to preserve liquidity and sell Bitcoin when issuing new stock becomes less attractive. It also greenlit the repurchase of US$1 billion of its preferred securities and an additional US$1 billion of common stock.

By reorganising its balance sheet, Strategy “may have finally gotten out of its own way,” Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, wrote in a report published on Monday.

The question remains whether Bitcoin’s brittle recovery this month can hold, particularly as geopolitical tensions continue to unsettle global markets. Financial institutions that have been drawn to digital assets are now increasingly looking at stablecoins and other uses of blockchain as ways of growing their presence in the sector instead.

“Institutions are not necessarily looking to take more directional exposure to tokens right now, but they are increasingly interested in using blockchain rails to make financial markets more efficient, programmable, and globally accessible,” said Boris Alergant, an executive at Babylon Labs. BLOOMBERG

https://u.today/xrp-ledger-nears-historic-1-million-ai-transactions-milestone-can-it-push-xrp-to-130

The XRP Ledger’s recent v3.2.0 upgrade has been adopted by 89% of its trusted validators, yet only 43% of all active nodes have followed suit, according to a report from CoinDesk. The upgrade, which includes infrastructure improvements and a rebranding of the core server software to “xrpld,” requires an 80% quorum of trusted validators to activate. Meanwhile, a bundled security amendment remains in the voting phase, needing 80% UNL support to proceed. This situation suggests a gradual yet incomplete transition to the upgraded network, raising questions about potential operational risks for nodes and exchanges that have not yet updated.

Market participants appear to view the partial adoption of the upgrade as consistent with positive momentum for XRP, suggesting potential impacts on price predictions. The current market data indicates a mixed outlook for XRP reaching its target prices in July, with only a small percentage of market pricing reflecting the likelihood of achieving notable price milestones. The market’s interpretation of these developments will likely shape future pricing scenarios in the coming weeks.

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The XRP price prediction market for July shows varied confidence levels in reaching different price points. For instance, the probability of XRP reaching $3.00 remains low at 0%, while a potential move to $1.40 is priced at 8% YES. This disparity reflects the current uncertainty and market participants’ cautious stance towards significant price jumps in the short term.

Key Takeaways The adoption of the XRP Ledger’s v3.2.0 upgrade appears consistent with supportive indicators for XRP, yet full activation remains pending. Market pricing suggests a low likelihood of XRP reaching the $3.00 target in July, with higher confidence in lower price targets. The ongoing security amendment vote could indicate significant changes in market sentiment once resolved. What to Watch Watch for the completion of the security amendment vote, as achieving the necessary 80% UNL support could influence market perceptions and pricing. Additionally, attention should be given to any announcements from key Ripple figures or analysts that might affect confidence levels in XRP’s ability to reach its target prices. The evolving adoption rate among active nodes will also be crucial in assessing potential operational risks and network stability.

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Term Structure

Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h August 1 2026 0.4% — — View market → August 1 2026 2.6% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.9% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.2% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.4% — — View market → August 1 2026 8% — — View market →

The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp selloff on Wednesday after tensions over geopolitical matters escalated. The uncertainty comes as U.S. President Donald Trump said that the memorandum of understanding with Iran is now “over.” With this, Bitcoin fell below the $62,000 mark, leading the crypto market downturn. This causing nearly $450 million worth of leveraged liquidations in the market.

Crypto Market Liquidations Surge Amid US-Iran War Data from CoinGlass shows that over the last 24 hours, 145,221 traders were liquidated, totaling $449.63 million in liquidations. The losses at $343.43 million were mainly on the long side with $106.20 million being on the short side. Binance had the largest liquidation, with a $7.24 million ETHUSDT position being liquidated.

The most liquidated cryptocurrencies were Bitcoin with $99.90 million and Ethereum with $90.67 million. Other cryptocurrencies experienced a collective $60.83 million in liquidations, and Solana had $24.19 million in liquidations. Selling activity also was widespread throughout the market, with XRP seeing more than $9 million in liquidated positions.

This plunge in the market followed a sign that the diplomatic agreement between Washington and Tehran has failed. Speaking at the NATO summit, Trump said, “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore.” He also described further negotiations as “just a waste of time dealing with them.”

Trump repeated that Iran would never get a nuclear weapon, but said that the negotiators were still eager to talk but “they have to come back” to me.

BTC Under Pressure With Fresh US-Iran Strikes Trump’s comments came on the heels of a new escalation in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s tough force, has announced it had responded to a series of U.S. strikes, ratcheted up sanctions on Iran’s export of oil and reacted to attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by launching its own attacks on Washington’s military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Geopolitical risks continued to drive oil prices up and weighed on risk assets such as crypto. Hence, Bitcoin price fell below $62,000 amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

In separate news, Israel’s Ynet news reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had cancelled his trip to Israel when tensions were ratcheting up in the region. This also led to a negative sentiment in the crypto market as geopolitical tensions continue.

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SBI VC Trade reported rising institutional demand for BTC and XRP as Japanese firms adjust treasury strategies amid continued yen weakness.

Corporate demand for Bitcoin and XRP is increasing in Japan as a weaker yen prompts companies to diversify their treasury holdings, according to crypto exchange SBI VC Trade.

The crypto arm of Tokyo-based SBI Holdings said that this trend has driven demand for its corporate-focused services.

Corporate Crypto Demand SBI VC Trade announced that its total registered accounts surpassed 2 million as of July 6, 2026, having doubled from more than 1 million in 2025. The figure includes users across both its VCTRADE and BITPOINT services following the merger with fellow SBI Group company Bitpoint Japan in April 2026, which the exchange said further strengthened its service infrastructure.

It attributed its continued growth to several factors, including its focus on secure and regulated trading services, an expanded range of crypto investment products, and efforts to improve accessibility for both retail and institutional users. Beyond retail products, the company also observed growing interest from corporate clients through its “SBIVC for Prime” service, which was designed for businesses and large-scale investors.

SBI VC Trade said the service has gained particular traction as Japanese firms adjust their treasury strategies in response to the weaker yen by incorporating crypto assets into their reserves. It also reported increased adoption among companies using Bitcoin and XRP as part of shareholder benefit programs.

Meanwhile, stablecoins have also become a major part of the exchange’s expansion strategy. After becoming the first exchange in Japan to support USDC in March 2025, it added the yen-denominated trust-type stablecoin JPYSC and Ripple’s US dollar-pegged RLUSD in June 2026.

Funding Round SBI Holdings has remained one of Japan’s most active financial players in the crypto sector. It recently led a $76 million Series C funding round in US-based institutional crypto exchange EDX Markets.

You may also like: SpaceX Bitcoin Wallet Wakes Up With a Tiny Transaction: What’s Next? Oil Soars, Bitcoin Plunges as Trump Declares Iran MoU ‘Is Over’ Rapid Retail Mood Swings Signal Caution as BTC Retreats Amid Iran Strikes The latter said it will use the capital to expand internationally and develop new products for its institution-only trading platform, which separates trading, custody, and settlement to reduce counterparty risk.

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XRP has slipped below a key short-term support near $1.10, with sellers regaining control as traders lock in profits after Ripple’s latest European regulatory win and macro risk sentiment weakens across global markets.

Summary

XRP has dropped below key support near $1.10 as profit-taking and long liquidations push the token toward $1. A descending channel, weakening RSI, bearish MACD setup, and dense liquidation zones reinforce downside risks. Ripple’s MiCA license and $4 billion in XRPL tokenized RWAs highlight long-term adoption despite near-term weakness. The token traded around $1.08 on Tuesday after falling from an intraday high near $1.18. The decline came shortly after Ripple secured a full Crypto-Asset Service Provider license from Luxembourg’s Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework. Instead of extending the rally, the announcement triggered a classic sell-the-news reaction as traders booked gains following the regulatory milestone.

Fresh geopolitical tensions added pressure across risk assets. Reports of a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. airstrikes on Iran, and the removal of Iranian oil sales waivers pushed crude oil prices more than 2.5% higher.

The move lifted Treasury yields and weighed on equities, particularly technology stocks, dragging major cryptocurrencies lower alongside traditional markets.

At the same time, derivatives positioning amplified the decline. CoinGlass liquidation data shows dense leverage clusters above $1.10 and another major concentration near $1.14, while the latest three-day liquidation heatmap now reveals comparatively thinner liquidity below the market.

XRP liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass As long positions were forced out during Tuesday’s decline, XRP quickly slid toward the next support zone around $1.08, leaving the psychological $1.00 level as the next major downside magnet if sellers remain in control.

A separate on-chain development has highlighted continued institutional interest in the XRP Ledger despite the token’s weak price action. According to crypto commentator Whale Factor, tokenized real-world assets on the network have surpassed $4 billion after standing near $150 million a year ago.

“The crypto as a toy narrative is dead. Tokenized RWAs on the XRP Ledger just smashed through the $4 BILLION mark,” Whale Factor wrote on X.

The growth underscores expanding enterprise adoption of the network, although investors have largely treated it as a long-term fundamental story rather than a catalyst for immediate token demand.

Technical breakdown has exposed the $1 psychological support The daily chart shows XRP trading inside a descending channel that has capped every recovery attempt since May. The latest rejection occurred after the token failed to hold above the channel’s upper boundary before falling back toward the lower half of the pattern.

XRP daily price chart — July 8 | Source: crypto.news Momentum indicators have also weakened. The daily Relative Strength Index has slipped to around 42 after failing to reclaim the neutral 50 level, while the MACD histogram has begun printing smaller positive bars as the MACD line curls toward a bearish crossover. Together, those indicators suggest buying momentum has faded after last week’s rebound.

The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the May high to the June low also places XRP below the 78.6% retracement level near $1.13. Immediate support sits around $1.01-$1.02 near the channel floor, with a decisive break opening the door to a test of the psychological $1.00 level. 

On the upside, bulls would first need to reclaim $1.13 before challenging resistance around $1.21, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level and previous supply zone converge.

The 4-hour chart presents a similar picture. Aroon Down has climbed to 100 while Aroon Up has retreated sharply, showing sellers currently dominate the short-term trend. Meanwhile, Chaikin Money Flow has remained only marginally above zero, suggesting capital inflows have weakened despite avoiding outright distribution.

XRP 4-hour price chart — July 8 | Source: crypto.news Macro risks could extend losses while a recovery requires reclaiming $1.13 Muted institutional participation has added another headwind. Spot XRP ETF flows have remained largely flat over recent sessions, while uncertainty surrounding the timing of the U.S. CLARITY Act continues to delay a key regulatory catalyst that many investors view as important for broader institutional adoption.

Further weakness in global equity markets or another spike in energy prices could accelerate risk aversion and increase pressure on altcoins. A daily close below the $1.01-$1.02 support area would strengthen the bearish case for a move toward $1.00 and potentially below it.

The downside outlook would weaken if buyers reclaim the $1.13 resistance zone and push XRP back above the descending channel’s upper trendline. Such a move would force short sellers to reassess positions and could shift attention toward the $1.21 resistance area, where the next major supply cluster remains concentrated.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Ripple (XRP) continues to trade under heavy selling, trading below $1.10 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The remittance token marks four consecutive days of declines,  weighed down by geopolitical tensions and significantly low risk appetite.

Capital outflows, weak on-chain activity keep XRP under pressureXRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) activity remained muted on Tuesday and Monday, with no flows recorded, according to SoSoValue data. This muted activity suggests a withdrawal of demand rather than a complete loss of conviction in the digital asset. However, capital inflows remain pivotal in absorbing selling pressure and sustaining recoveries.

Cumulative inflows total $1.49 billion, with net assets under management at $1.02 billion, reinforcing investor long-term conviction in XRP.

XRP ETF flows | Source : SoSoValueOn-chain activity is weakening, according to Santiment’s data, showing active addresses at 14,500 on Wednesday, down from roughly 31,000 the day before. A wider scope cements the decline, given that network users sending and receiving assets on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) peaked at 43,000 on June 30. If sustained, the low on-chain activity would continue to weigh on demand, further limiting XRP’s upside.

XRP Active Addresses | Source: SantimentRetail demand for XRP is similarly suppressed, as futures Open Interest (OI) steadies at 213 billion XRP on Wednesday, up only marginally from 2.12 billion XRP the previous day. Nonetheless, CoinGlass data shows a gradual but sustained drop from 2.38 billion XRP on June 23, undermining investor appetite.

XRP Futures OI | Source: CoinGlassPrice analysis: XRP eyes short-term support at $1.05XRP trades at $1.08, extending a corrective phase below its key Exponential Moving Averages. The 50-day EMA at $1.18, together with the 100-day EMA at $1.28 and the 200-day EMA at $1.49, sits overhead and suggests a capped, bearish near-term bias while price remains under this layered resistance zone.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator edges in positive territory and hints at modest bullish momentum that has yet to challenge the dominant overhead structure on the daily chart. At the same time, Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 reinforces a consolidative tone rather than an immediate recovery.

XRP/USDT daily chartOn the topside, initial resistance lies at the 50-day EMA around $1.18, and a sustained move above this level would expose the next barrier at the 100-day EMA near $1.28 before the broader bearish framework defined by the 200-day EMA at $1.49 comes into view. Looking down, the first notable support emerges at the Parabolic SAR level around $1.02, where a break lower would likely revive selling pressure and open the door to further declines. On the other hand, a defensive hold above this marker would allow bulls to keep probing the clustered EMA resistance overhead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Open Interest, funding rate FAQs Higher Open Interest is associated with higher liquidity and new capital inflow to the market. This is considered the equivalent of increase in efficiency and the ongoing trend continues. When Open Interest decreases, it is considered a sign of liquidation in the market, investors are leaving and the overall demand for an asset is on a decline, fueling a bearish sentiment among investors.

Funding fees bridge the difference between spot prices and prices of futures contracts of an asset by increasing liquidation risks faced by traders. A consistently high and positive funding rate implies there is a bullish sentiment among market participants and there is an expectation of a price hike. A consistently negative funding rate for an asset implies a bearish sentiment, indicating that traders expect the cryptocurrency’s price to fall and a bearish trend reversal is likely to occur.

XRP's logo will appear on countless jerseys in the US.

‘History on a jersey patch.’ That’s how Ripple’s team on X described the new partnership between the company and the Kansas Jayhawks.

Mostly referred to as simply KU or Kansas, the Jayhawks are the athletic teams representing the University of Kansas. KU athletic teams have won 15 national championships, including 12 NCAA Division I titles. Now, they will carry XRP’s logo.

The Jayhawks’ X account noted that this partnership is a “shared commitment to innovation and excellence,” as the token’s logo will appear on all of their uniforms. Ripple said this is the first-ever crypto sponsorship of a major college athletics program.

The FAQs shared by both parties shed more light on the collaboration. It will start in the fall of this year, and the patch color will ‘match’ the “overall color scheme of Kansas athletics and corresponding uniforms.” The XRP patch will be either Crimson, Blue, or White.

The logo of the cryptocurrency will appear only on game jerseys and not on practice, travel, or sideline gear.

The team also warned that officially licensed Adidas game jerseys for sale at retail stores will not be emblazoned with the XRP patch. On the other hand, if fans purchase an official game jersey at the Kansas Athletics’ official team store called Jayhawk Outfitters, the patch can be added at the time of the transaction.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also commented on the move, calling it a “rare moment where my professional and personal worlds collide.” Born and raised in Kansas, he holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the University of Kansas before getting an MBA from Harvard Business School.

You may also like: Ripple (XRP) Scores Major European Win With Full MiCA License Ripple’s OpenUSD Move: Payment Infrastructure Push or XRP Value Catalyst? What is OpenUSD (OUSD)? Visa, BlackRock, Coinbase, and 140+ Firms Fuel Buzz Around New Stablecoin Rare moment where my professional and personal worlds collide: XRP is now the first crypto on the jersey of a major college athletics program, at my alma mater.

XRP Family, meet the Jayhawks. Rock Chalk! https://t.co/F6uAL0kMNS

— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) July 8, 2026

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Exchange reserves have fallen to a seven-year low of about 1.6 billion XRP, half what they were at the October 2025 peak. ETFs have absorbed nearly a billion tokens. Ripple still holds roughly 36 billion in escrow. This is the full map of where XRP’s supply actually sits in mid-2026, what moved, what it means, and why a shrinking float has so far failed to move the price.

Summary

XRP exchange reserves have fallen to a seven year low while spot ETFs have accumulated nearly one billion tokens and long term holders continue moving coins into private wallets. Ripple still controls about 36 billion XRP in escrow, but steady monthly releases and relocks have not stopped exchange balances from shrinking to multi year lows. The report says tighter supply alone has not lifted XRP’s price, with weak market demand continuing to outweigh the effects of a declining tradable float. Something unusual is happening to XRP’s supply, and it is happening quietly, underneath a price chart that has spent 2026 telling a story of decline. Exchange reserves, the pool of tokens sitting on trading venues ready to be sold, have fallen to roughly 1.6 billion XRP, the lowest level in seven years and down about 50% from the October 2025 peak of 3.76 billion. On Binance alone, the largest venue for the asset, reserves have dropped 20% since November 2024 to about 2.6 billion tokens across its wallets, pushing a metric called the Scarcity Index to its highest reading in more than two years. Meanwhile the seven US spot ETFs have quietly accumulated more than 970 million XRP, locked in custody on behalf of fund holders, after nine consecutive weeks of net inflows.

Tokens are leaving the places where they can be sold and accumulating in the places where they tend to sit still. In most assets, that migration is the textbook setup for a supply squeeze. In XRP, the price has fallen anyway, trading near $1.13, down roughly 70% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65, through the entire period in which the float was tightening.

That contradiction is the story. This piece maps the full distribution of XRP’s supply as of mid-2026: what sits on exchanges, what the ETFs hold, what Ripple controls in escrow and operational wallets, and what the remaining tens of billions in private hands are doing. It then works through why a halving of exchange reserves has not produced the price response the squeeze thesis predicts, the competing explanations for the gap, and the specific conditions under which a tight float starts to matter. The supply side of XRP has rarely been this interesting; the demand side is the reason nobody has noticed.

The map: 100 billion tokens, five buckets XRP’s supply structure is unlike any other major asset, and the map has to start from its founding fact: all 100 billion tokens were created at launch in 2012. There is no mining, no issuance schedule, no future supply beyond what already exists. About 14 million XRP have been permanently destroyed as transaction fees since then, a rounding error, leaving total supply just below 100 billion. Everything else is a question of where the existing tokens sit, and in mid-2026 they sit in five buckets.

The first bucket is Ripple’s escrow, the largest single concentration of XRP in existence at roughly 36 billion tokens, about 36% of total supply. These are time-locked on-chain contracts releasing one billion XRP on the first of each month, of which Ripple typically relocks 600 to 800 million and keeps a net 200 to 300 million for operations, a mechanism this publication has explained in full. In July, Ripple relocked about 70% of the monthly billion, releasing 300 million into circulation. The escrow is the structural overhang critics cite and the transparency mechanism defenders praise, and either way it is the slowest-moving bucket: at current net-release rates, depletion is roughly nine years out.

The second bucket is circulating supply proper, about 62 billion tokens, and the remaining buckets are subdivisions of it. Exchange reserves, the third bucket, are the sellable edge of the market: roughly 1.6 billion tokens across venues, the seven-year low. The fourth bucket is the ETF complex: seven US spot funds holding a combined 970 million or so tokens, a bit over $1 billion in assets, tokens held by custodians and effectively removed from trading circulation for as long as fund investors stay put. The fifth bucket, by far the largest slice of circulating supply, is everything else: private wallets, corporate treasuries, whale cold storage, and long-term holders, somewhere near 59 billion tokens whose owners have, on the evidence of on-chain data, been net withdrawers from exchanges for over a year.

Two things stand out from the map. First, the actively tradable float, the exchange reserves, is now under 3% of circulating supply and under 2% of total supply, remarkably thin for a top-six asset by market value. Second, the two fastest-growing buckets, ETF custody and private cold storage, are both one-way doors in the short term: tokens flow in easily and come back out only when holders make an affirmative decision to sell.

What moved, and why The reshaping of the map over the past eighteen months has three drivers, each visible on-chain.

The first driver is the ETF complex, which did not exist before November 2025. Since the first spot XRP fund launched, the products have absorbed roughly $1.5 billion in cumulative inflows, and because they hold the underlying token, every dollar of inflow is a market purchase moved into custody. The funds have now recorded nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, adding $17 million in the latest week even as Bitcoin and Ethereum funds bled, a rotation this publication has tracked. Nearly a billion tokens now sit in ETF custody, and the mechanism only reverses if fund investors redeem at scale, which, so far, they have done on exactly one notable day, the quarter-end outflow of June 30.

The second driver is whale and institutional withdrawal. CryptoQuant data shows the Binance drawdown accelerating recently, from about 2.8 billion tokens in May to 2.6 billion in early July, exactly the window in which the Scarcity Index broke out to 0.77. Large-holder activity has strengthened while retail stays cautious, new-wallet creation hit a three-month high, and Korean venues have recorded repeated multi-million-token outflows. The pattern, tokens moving from hot exchange wallets to cold private ones, is the classic signature of accumulation by holders with no near-term intention to sell.

Notably, this is the reverse of December 2024, when the Scarcity Index collapsed because holders were depositing XRP onto Binance in bulk to sell the rally to $3; today’s flows run the other way, out of the venues, into storage, at prices two-thirds lower.

The third driver is the escrow’s steady arithmetic. Ripple’s net release of 200 to 300 million tokens a month adds roughly 4-6% to circulating supply annually, a bounded, scheduled inflation the market can model years ahead. In 2026 the company has if anything leaned conservative, relocking 70% in recent months, and part of what it does release goes to institutional counterparties off-exchange, never touching the tradable float at all. The escrow is a source of supply, but it is a metered one, and its pace has not changed while the exchange drawdown accelerated, which means the drawdown is demand-side behavior, not a supply-side trick.

The puzzle: a tightening float and a falling price Here is where the story stops being simple. Every element above, reserves halved, ETFs absorbing, whales withdrawing, metered issuance, belongs to the standard playbook of a supply squeeze, the setup in which shrinking availability meets steady demand and the price ratchets upward because sellers become scarce. XRP has instead spent 2026 falling, from $2.41 in January to near $1 in late June, before the modest recovery to $1.13. The float tightened; the price halved. Any honest supply analysis has to explain that, and there are three serious explanations, not mutually exclusive.

The first is that scarcity on exchanges measures potential, not pressure. A thin order book amplifies whatever demand arrives; it does not create demand. Through 2026, demand has been the missing side: derivatives open interest collapsed from last year’s highs, retail participation stayed weak, funding rates flipped decisively negative as price approached $1, and ETF inflows, while persistent, ran at a pace of tens of millions per week, roughly the same order of magnitude as Ripple’s monthly net escrow release in dollar terms. Australian lawyer and longtime XRP commentator Bill Morgan has made the sharper version of this point: neither the supply-squeeze thesis nor the older escrow-dump fear explains XRP’s price well, because the dominant variable is simply Bitcoin, which fell through the same months and dragged the whole market with it. On this reading, the tight float is dry tinder, and 2026 has been a year without a spark.

The second explanation is that the headline reserve numbers may overstate the tightness. Skeptics of the squeeze thesis note that measured exchange reserves depend on which wallets analysts attribute to which venues, that internal transfers can masquerade as outflows, and that estimates of total platform-held XRP across all venues and custodians run far higher than the headline 1.6 billion, with some placing 14 to 16 billion tokens within fast reach of order books. The February-March episode in which roughly 350 million XRP dipped and rebounded on Binance, likely internal wallet reshuffling rather than organic flow, illustrates how noisy the data is. If the true sellable supply is several multiples of the visible reserve, the squeeze is further away than the dashboards suggest.

The third explanation is structural: the sellers who matter are not on exchanges yet. Millions of tokens were accumulated between $1.50 and $1.90 during the spring’s failed rallies, and holders underwater at those levels represent a standing wall of supply that will migrate back onto exchanges precisely when price approaches their break-even. Add Ripple’s monthly release and the possibility of ETF redemptions in a risk-off shock, and the tight float is best understood as tight at current prices, with reinforcements waiting at higher ones. Santiment’s MVRV data showing holders at their deepest unrealized losses in the token’s history cuts both ways: it signals capitulation-grade sentiment, and it also marks exactly where the exit orders cluster.

How to read the metrics without fooling yourself Because the supply story runs on a handful of dashboards, and because those dashboards are routinely misread in both directions, a short field guide to the metrics is worth the space.

Exchange reserves are an attribution exercise, not an audit. Analytics firms tag wallets they believe belong to venues and sum the balances, which means the headline number moves when tagging improves, when exchanges reorganize custody, and when internal transfers cross the tagged perimeter, none of which involves a single token changing owners. The 350 million XRP that appeared to leave and re-enter Binance across February and March was almost certainly internal wallet management, and any single week’s reserve print should be read with that episode in mind. The signal is in the trend across months and across independent data providers, and on that standard the 2026 drawdown is robust: the direction has been consistent since late 2024, it appears in CryptoQuant, exchange-published data, and third-party trackers alike, and it has accelerated instead of mean-reverting.

The Scarcity Index is a ratio, and ratios have two moving parts. The index compares available supply on Binance against demand conditions, so it can rise because tokens leave, because buying absorbs, or both, and it can whipsaw, as it did on the round trip from 0.80 in spring to 0.34 in June to 0.77 in July, without the underlying reserve base moving anywhere near as violently. Its historical extremes are more informative than its level: the deeply negative readings of December 2024 marked holders flooding coins onto the venue to sell a top, and the current two-year high marks the opposite regime, coins leaving into weakness. As a regime indicator it has value; as a timing tool it has embarrassed everyone who used it as one this year.

ETF holdings are the cleanest series in the entire picture, because fund custodians disclose and the products file, which is why the roughly 970 million tokens across the seven funds is the number this piece leans on hardest. Even here, one habit matters: distinguish flows from assets. Net assets fall when the price falls even while inflows continue, which is exactly what happened through the spring, deposits arriving as valuations shrank, and reading the AUM decline as investor exit inverted the truth. Flow data, positive for nine consecutive weeks, is the demand signal; asset data is mostly a price echo.

Escrow figures, finally, come with the strongest health warning of all, because the number that matters is not the billion that unlocks but the net that stays out, and the net is only knowable after the relock lands days later. Ripple’s own quarterly reports, the on-chain escrow contracts, and the monthly relock transactions are all public, and the discipline is to compute the net against the trailing 200-to-300-million average before drawing any conclusion. A month in which the net spikes above the band is a genuine signal about the company’s cash needs; a month of headlines about a billion-token unlock that ends in a 70% relock, like this July’s, is a signal about headlines. Every metric in this story is public, which is XRP’s genuine advantage as an object of analysis, and every one of them rewards the reader who checks the denominator before repeating the numerator.

What history says about tightening floats The squeeze thesis is not being invented for XRP in 2026; it has a track record in this asset and others, and the record is worth consulting because it cuts both ways.

The supportive precedent is 2024. Exchange outflows through that year preceded the powerful multi-month rally that carried XRP from under a dollar to its January 2025 highs above $3, with Korean regional demand and shrinking sell-side reserves amplifying the move once the SEC settlement and ETF approvals supplied the demand spark. The structure of that episode maps closely onto today’s: months of quiet withdrawal, a scarcity metric stretching to extremes, skeptics dismissing the data, and then a catalyst arriving into a market with far fewer sellers than buyers expected. Holders who lived through it read the current seven-year-low reserves as the same picture at an earlier frame.

The cautionary precedents are just as instructive. The Scarcity Index itself has whipsawed within 2026: it climbed to nearly 0.80 in the spring, sagged to 0.34 by late June amid heavy long liquidations, then broke out to 0.77 in the first week of July, and the price fell through the entire sequence. A metric that can round-trip that violently inside one quarter is measuring flow conditions, not destiny, and the June reading arrived alongside more than $13 million in single-day long liquidations, a reminder that leverage positioning can overwhelm spot scarcity on any given week. December 2024 offers the mirror lesson: reserves ballooned precisely at the top, as holders raced to deposit and sell the $3 rally, which is to say the metric is at its most bullish after prices have already fallen and its most bearish after they have already risen, a lagging emotional gauge as much as a leading structural one.

The broader crypto record adds a final nuance. Bitcoin’s great supply-squeeze narratives, the 2020-21 exchange exodus, the post-ETF custody absorption of 2024, each eventually mattered, and each mattered on the demand side’s schedule, not the supply side’s. Assets have sat at multi-year reserve lows for quarters while prices drifted, and then repriced in weeks once flows arrived, because a thin float does nothing until someone leans on it, at which point it does everything at once. That asymmetry, long stretches of irrelevance punctuated by sudden amplification, is the honest historical summary, and it is why the traders who take the supply map seriously express the view through patience and position sizing, the same execution discipline any thin market demands, rather than through timing calls the data cannot support.

There is one more structural actor worth watching that previous cycles lacked: the corporate and fund treasuries. Beyond the seven ETFs, a growing roster of listed companies has adopted XRP treasury strategies, and the ETF custodian wallets themselves have become the single most legible accumulation channel in the asset’s history, absorbing roughly 750 million tokens in their first two months alone. Treasury demand is slower and stickier than trader demand, it neither chases rallies nor panics in drawdowns on the same timescale, and its growth quietly raises the floor beneath the float. Whether it grows fast enough to matter against escrow issuance is, like everything in this story, a race whose lap times are published monthly.

What would make the float matter The supply map becomes decisive only when demand shows up, so the forward-looking question is what could supply the spark, and the candidates are concrete.

The nearest is legal. The CLARITY Act’s commodity classification for XRP, if enacted, is the gate behind which the large conditional forecasts sit: JPMorgan and Standard Chartered have each projected $4 to $8.4 billion in first-year ETF inflows under passage, an order of magnitude above the current run rate.

Flows of that size, arriving into a float of under two billion exchange-held tokens, are the scenario in which the scarcity math stops being academic; the Senate’s three-week window is therefore as much a supply-side story as a regulatory one. The second candidate is institutional adoption converting to token demand through collateral and settlement use, the slow path whose honest accounting runs through Ripple Prime, and the third is simply the market cycle: XRP has historically fallen harder than Bitcoin in downturns and snapped back harder in recoveries, and a thin float mechanically steepens the snapback.

Against these, the checkable risks: a CLARITY failure pushing institutional flows past 2027, ETF inflows decelerating or reversing for consecutive weeks, or reserves rebuilding as underwater holders redeposit into any rally. The dashboard for all of it is public. Exchange reserves, the Scarcity Index, weekly ETF flows, and the monthly escrow relock are each published within days, and together they will show the squeeze forming, or failing, in close to real time.

The conclusion the map supports is narrower than either camp’s slogan. XRP’s tradable supply has genuinely, measurably contracted to multi-year lows while long-horizon buckets absorbed the difference, and that contraction has been irrelevant to price for a year because demand collapsed faster than the float did. Scarcity is not a catalyst; it is a multiplier waiting for one. The honest position is that XRP enters the second half of 2026 with the most squeeze-prone supply structure it has had since at least 2019 and no evidence yet of the demand that would trigger it, which makes the supply map neither bullish nor bearish on its own, but the single best lens for judging how violently the price will move when the demand question, one way or the other, finally resolves.

One final frame is worth carrying away, because it reconciles everything above into a single sentence: XRP in mid-2026 is an asset whose company is accumulating credentials, whose long-horizon holders are accumulating tokens, and whose traders have spent a year accumulating losses, and the supply map is the ledger on which all three behaviors are legible at once. The reserves data records the holders’ conviction, the ETF flows record the institutions’ patient entry, the escrow relocks record the company’s restraint, and the price records the absence, so far, of anyone forced to compete for a shrinking float. Markets in this configuration tend to resolve abruptly rather than gracefully, because thin floats do not permit gradual repricing in either direction: the same scarcity that would turbocharge an inflow shock also means a demand collapse finds few bids on the way down, which is the double edge the squeeze narratives rarely mention. The map says the stage is set. It has never claimed to know the play.

For readers who want to run the numbers themselves, the recipe is short. Take the circulating supply of roughly 62 billion, subtract the ETF custody balance published in the funds’ daily disclosures, subtract the aggregated exchange reserves from at least two independent trackers, and treat the remainder as the private-holder bucket whose behavior the withdrawal trends describe. Cross-check the month’s escrow arithmetic against the on-chain relock, and note the week’s ETF flow direction. Fifteen minutes of public data, repeated monthly, reproduces every structural claim in this piece and will catch the turn, whichever way it breaks, well before the headlines do.

The last variable, as always with this asset, is the one no dashboard tracks: how much of the withdrawn supply belongs to hands that will actually hold through the next stress test. Cold-storage balances built at $1.10 by buyers who watched the token at $3.65 carry a different resolve than balances built chasing a rally, and the 2026 drawdown has, if nothing else, transferred an unusual share of the float to owners who bought weakness deliberately. That is not a prediction. It is the one qualitative fact the quantitative map quietly implies, and the one that will decide whether the next demand shock meets a wall of break-even sellers or an empty room.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset markets are volatile and you can lose your entire investment. On-chain and market figures are estimates current as of July 8, 2026, and may change. Always do your own research.

Synopsis

Crypto futures trading in India saw significant growth from smaller cities. Women traders showed lower leverage and preferred specific digital assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum comprised a smaller portion of futures volume. Tamil Nadu led regional participation in crypto futures trading. Traders demonstrated tactical approaches and risk awareness in leveraged products.

ET OnlineWomen investors accounted for over 13% of crypto futures traders and their average leverage remained lower than that of male traders, according to a release by Giottus analysing its 1.3-million-strong customer base during the September 2025-May 2026 period.

The release further said that women traders also showed a stronger preference for XRP, Bitcoin, and gold-linked assets.

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Nearly half of the country’s crypto futures participation now comes from tier-2 cities even as futures trading has overtaken spot volumes. Crypto Futures contributed 57.22% of total platform trading volume, ahead of spot at 42.78%. At the same time, 48% of futures participants came from tier-2 cities, compared with 31% from tier-1 locations, and 21% from other locations.

The figures point to a broader shift in Indian crypto trading behaviour. Leveraged products (like futures) are no longer driven mainly by metro traders. The smaller-city participation is now emerging as a major force in crypto derivatives activity.

The report also showed strong acceleration in user growth during 2026. Futures participation grew 42.5% in February. It rose another 28.5% in March. April recorded 35.3% growth. In May, it was 30.3%.

Futures users currently account for only 24% of Giottus’ active user base. The data suggests there is still considerable expansion headroom within existing platform users.

“India’s crypto participation story is becoming geographically broader. We are seeing increasing engagement from smaller cities in products that were once viewed as niche or high-complexity,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.

The dataset further showed unusually high engagement intensity among active traders. Average trades per active user peaked at 330 trades in January 2026. Even after moderation in April, users still averaged more than 51 trades a month. The figure was 45 in May.

Another major behavioural trend emerged in trading preferences. Bitcoin and Ethereum together accounted for only 15.35% of total Futures volume during the review period.

Ethereum accounted for 7.07% of the traded Futures volume. Solana accounted for 5.76% and XRP contributed 5.24%.

The figures suggest Indian retail traders are increasingly moving beyond Bitcoin exposure into higher-volatility altcoin opportunities. Trading behaviour appears to be becoming more tactical and event-driven.

Also Read | Smallcap funds deliver 22% average return in 3 months. Is it time to invest, hold or rebalance?

Tamil Nadu emerged as the dominant regional market in the dataset. The state contributed 46.6% of all futures traders. It also accounted for 59.26% of the platform’s total Futures trading volume. Kerala contributed 10.23% of the total trading volume.

The report also showed relatively balanced market positioning among traders. Long positions accounted for 52.79% of trades and short positions accounted for 47.21%.

Average leverage among Giottus Futures traders stood at 10x. More than 30% of trades used leverage above 10x. Despite that, monthly liquidation ratios ranged between 0.55% and 2.52% during the review period.

“The liquidation trends are important because they suggest participation is not entirely speculative or reckless. Users are showing greater awareness around position sizing and risk management while using leveraged products,” Vikram said.

The report further showed that Indian retail traders were most active between 7 pm and 10 pm. The lowest trading activity was recorded between 3 am and 6 am. The pattern reflects post-work retail participation and overlap with US market hours.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have again dropped more than 2% today after U.S. President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran was “over.” This came after the U.S. launched strikes in response to Iran’s attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following this news, as oil jumped 6%, Bitcoin fell to $61,700, and Ethereum slipped below $1,740.

Speaking at the NATO summit, U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire agreement with Iran was now finished.

“To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. Dealing with Tehran is a waste of time.”

According to the U.S. military, more than 80 targets were hit after Iran attacked three commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including ships linked to Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Iran quickly responded by accusing the U.S. of violating the agreement. Parliament Speaker Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf said the U.S. had broken the ceasefire agreement by launching fresh attacks, bringing back oil sanctions, and continuing military action in the region.

Major MOU Violations by the US:

Violating Iranian adjustments in the Strait

Persistent threats of further strikes

Reinstating oil sanctions

Attacks on southern Iran

Continued Zionist aggression on🇱🇧

The era of bullying and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) July 8, 2026 Also Read : Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2026, 2027 – 2030

Stablecoin Supply Adds More PressureThe U.S.-Iran conflict is not the only reason behind the Bitcoin price drop. Stablecoins, which are often called the cash of the crypto market, have seen a shrink in the cash flow. 

Since 2020, Bitcoin has gained an average of 5.2% in 30 days and 18.9% in 90 days when the stablecoin supply was growing. But when the supply shrank, those gains dropped to 1.1% and 8.4%

Since its $321 billion peak, stablecoin supply has fallen about 4.4%. During the 2022-23 bear market, stablecoin supply dropped 34%, while Bitcoin lost 43%.

For now, the drop is much smaller than in 2022, and trading is slowly improving. But if stablecoin supply keeps falling, Bitcoin could see more selling and further price declines.

Bitcoin Will Drop To $56.5KAnalyzing the recent market conditions, well-known crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin is still trading inside a descending channel on the four-hour chart after facing rejection near the upper resistance around $63,600.

He says that, if selling pressure continues, “Bitcoin could trigger a pullback toward $59,700, with $56,550 as the next downside target.”

Bitcoin $BTC is getting rejected at the top of its channel.

This could trigger a pullback toward $59,700, with $56,550 as the next downside target. pic.twitter.com/GvI9fMFQbD

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 8, 2026 However, if Bitcoin reclaims $63,600 with strong buying volume, it could invalidate the bearish setup and signal the start of a bullish move.

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