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Phantom has hired three Ventuals creators after the Hyperliquid-based project shut down its OpenAI and Anthropic perpetual futures markets.

Summary

Phantom has hired Ventuals creators Alvin Hsia, Emily Hsia and Aris Samad for its trading and data teams. Ventuals recently shut down its OpenAI and Anthropic perpetual futures markets on Hyperliquid. Phantom said the hires will support its deeper push into perpetual futures and Hyperliquid-based trading products. Phantom CEO Brandon Millman said Alvin Hsia, Emily Hsia and Aris Samad, who created Ventuals, have joined the company’s trading and data teams.

The move brings one of Hyperliquid’s closely watched private-company market experiments into Phantom’s growing trading business.

Ventuals had earlier announced that it was winding down and joining another project within the Hyperliquid ecosystem. The project had gained attention for offering perpetual futures tied to private-company valuations, including markets linked to OpenAI and Anthropic, before those products were closed.

Perpetual futures allow traders to take positions on price movements without a contract expiry date. Unlike traditional futures, these contracts can remain open as long as margin conditions are met, making them one of the most used derivative products in crypto markets. 

Their constant availability, deep liquidity, and flexible market design have also made them useful for trading assets beyond listed cryptocurrencies.

Phantom deepens focus on Hyperliquid trading For Phantom, the hires come as the self-custody wallet continues adding trading-focused features to its core wallet business. The company is best known as a crypto wallet provider, but it has expanded into swaps, staking and derivatives as wallets compete to become more active financial platforms for users.

Millman said Phantom has become the largest distribution partner in the Hyperliquid ecosystem and plans to keep building around perpetual futures. He said open markets had become a major focus for the company and added that Phantom had gone deep into perps and planned to go further.

In the same statement, Millman described Hyperliquid as one of the strongest examples of what open markets can enable, citing its global liquidity and transparent onchain infrastructure. According to him, adding the Ventuals team will help Phantom move faster in developing trading products linked to the ecosystem.

The development also comes as perpetual futures gain attention outside crypto-native exchanges. Kalshi launched its own perpetual futures business last month after receiving regulatory approval, adding another example of trading platforms testing always-on derivatives beyond traditional crypto markets.

DEARBORN, Mich.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ford Motor Company and Ford Motor Credit Company will release second-quarter 2026 financial results at 4:05 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 28.

The Ford Motor Company has initiated a massive recall of more than 740,000 vehicles. The issue with the affected automobiles is a defect that could cause them to roll away while parked, potentially damaging property or injuring people. Here’s what you need to know about the Ford recall.

What’s happened?The U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has published a report submitted by the Ford Motor Company to the agency on June 24.

The report provided the details of a recall that Ford initiated after finding an alarming issue with the transmission parking pawl in affected vehicles.

“Affected vehicles may experience temporary engagement of their transmission parking pawl while the vehicle is in motion when certain shifts are commanded by the transmission, potentially damaging park system components,” the report states.

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The company states that if the park system components are damaged, “the ability of the transmission park feature to hold the vehicle if the parking brake is not applied may be affected.”

In other words, vehicles that have this damage may suddenly roll away while parked. This unexpected vehicle motion can damage the vehicle itself and surrounding property, and cause injury to bystanders who happen to be in its path.

What vehicles are included in the recall?Ford says the total number of vehicles potentially covered under the recall is 741,195, with the estimated percentage of vehicles affected at 1%.

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Goldman Sachs logo appears in this illustration taken December 1, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesJuly 1 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' (GS.N), opens new tab private credit fund said on Wednesday that investors sought to repurchase roughly 3.24% of its total shares in ​the second quarter, extending its streak of lower redemptions ‌compared to most of the other players of the private credit industry.

The bank's fund, GS Credit, once again outperformed the sector that has been grappling with ​elevated redemption requests, driven by investor fears that AI could ​weaken the earnings of software companies and their ability ⁠to repay loans.

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Here are some details:

Goldman said second-quarter repurchase requests ​were below its 5% quarterly repurchase cap and were fulfilled in ​full.

Business development companies (BDCs) typically channel investor capital into private loans, making them a key part of the private credit industry.

"Across the largest non-traded BDC managers ​reporting second quarter activity to date, peer repurchase requests have ​generally ranged from approximately 10% to nearly 17% of shares outstanding," Goldman said ‌in ⁠a letter to shareholders.

The Goldman fund generated roughly $275 million of gross inflows during the second quarter, it said.

Several analysts and technology companies have argued that concerns about AI's impact on the software sector are ​overblown, saying established ​companies have businesses, ⁠proprietary data and customer relationships that will be difficult to displace.

"We continue to believe that incumbency ​moats — mission-critical workflows, proprietary data, deep domain expertise, ​regulatory complexity, ⁠and customer trust — remain powerful sources of defensibility," Goldman said.

Reuters reported in April, citing a source, that a large share of the ⁠fund's ​investors came through Goldman's private wealth channels, ​where clients have been long-term investors in private credit and are better positioned to ​endure illiquidity.

Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Royal Caribbean (RCL - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.

Over the past month, shares of this cruise operator have returned +9.2%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.8% change. During this period, the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry, which Royal Caribbean falls in, has gained 7.4%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?

Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.

Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.

We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

Royal Caribbean is expected to post earnings of $3.91 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -10.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $17.27 points to a change of +10.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $19.86 indicates a change of +15% from what Royal Caribbean is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.

Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Royal Caribbean is rated Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.

In the case of Royal Caribbean, the consensus sales estimate of $4.81 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +6%. The $19.63 billion and $21.06 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +9.4% and +7.3%, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryRoyal Caribbean reported revenues of $4.45 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +11.3%. EPS of $3.6 for the same period compares with $2.71 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.45 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.14%. The EPS surprise was +12.5%.

Over the last four quarters, Royal Caribbean surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.

ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.

While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Royal Caribbean is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Royal Caribbean. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.

Accelerating performance across regenerative agriculture, restorative and protective practices, sustainable sourcing, and livelihoods ambitions worldwide

, /PRNewswire/ -- PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) today announced progress against its 2030 Positive Agriculture (pep+) goals, highlighting gains in scaling regenerative agriculture, restorative and protective practices, advancing sustainable sourcing in accordance with its guidelines1, and improvements in livelihoods through dedicated programs.

PepsiCo today announced progress against its 2030 Positive Agriculture (pep+) goals, highlighting gains in scaling regenerative agriculture, restorative and protective practices, advancing sustainable sourcing.

PepsiCo launched Supporting Trusted Engagement and Partnership, (STEP) Up for Agriculture, a collaboration with several other large food and beverage companies and retailer customers to help strengthen farmer-facing organizations. The initiative aims to build capabilities, advance regenerative practices, provide technical assistance, and support more sustainable supply chains.

PepsiCo has expanded regenerative, restorative, and protective practices to 4.7 million acres globally, representing significant progress toward its goal to reach 10 million acres by 2030. "As we continue work to help advance toward a more resilient and sustainable food system, I'm proud of the notable progress we're making—particularly in scaling regenerative agriculture, restorative or protective practices and expanding opportunities that help strengthen livelihoods," said Jim Andrew, Chief Sustainability Officer and Executive Vice President, PepsiCo. "Our Positive Agriculture agenda is delivering impact for both people and the planet. While there is more work ahead, this momentum underscores what's possible through strong collaboration and continuous innovation."

Scaling Regenerative, Restorative, and Protective Agriculture

PepsiCo has expanded regenerative, restorative, and protective practices to 4.7 million acres globally, representing significant progress toward its goal to reach 10 million acres by 2030.2

Momentum in 2025 was driven by enhanced farmer engagement and landscape-level innovation, powered by deep, on-the-ground collaboration with farmer-focused partners. Together, PepsiCo and these partners co-designed locally relevant programs, aligned incentives to both environmental and economic outcomes, and supported adoption through technical assistance, peer networks, and data-driven insights. PepsiCo launched Supporting Trusted Engagement and Partnership, (STEP) Up for Agriculture, a collaboration with Unilever and several other large food and beverage companies and retailer customers to help strengthen farmer-facing organizations. Through tailored advisory support and a train-the-trainer model, the initiative aims to build capabilities, advance regenerative practices and support more sustainable supply chains.

Advancing Sustainable Sourcing

PepsiCo continues to make steady progress toward its goal to sustainably source 90% of its key ingredients and progress volumes (10% or less) that face systemic barriers towards being sustainably sourced in accordance with its guidelines by 2030. Progress toward this goal covers in-scope ingredients and materials greater than 0.01% of annual volume-based supply, for use in wholly owned manufacturing facilities, as well as PepsiCo's direct purchases on behalf of contract manufacturers and co-packers.3 Progress does not include purchases by joint ventures, franchise bottlers, contract manufacturers and co-packers or unplanned spot purchases. As of 2025:4

70% of key ingredients are now sustainably sourced Additionally, ~2% of volumes are actively progressing toward more sustainable practices under the company's "Engaged" pathway  These efforts are supported by PepsiCo's Sustainable Sourcing Guidelines and its Sustainable Farming Program, designed to help farmers adopt practices that can strengthen environmental performance and long-term agricultural resilience. 

Livelihoods

Since 2021, PepsiCo has supported approximately 224,000 people across its agricultural supply chains and communities with dedicated programing designed to improve economic prosperity and farmer and farm worker security—nearing its goal to positively impact more than 250,000 livelihoods by 2030.5

Key programs contributing to this progress include:

She Feeds the World (with CARE): Expanding food security, nutrition and income opportunities for smallholder farmers Collaborative Farming Program (India): End-to-end farmer support through demonstration farms, advantaged seed varieties and leadership engagement. The program provides agronomic advisory on best practices, showcases advanced technologies, and builds capabilities in regenerative and sustainable farming ultimately helping to strengthen market access and increase farm productivity and profitability. Agrovita (with Proforest): Supporting smallholders in Mexico to adopt sustainable practices and form rural cooperatives 1,000 Farmers Endless Prosperity (Türkiye): Supporting farmers in Türkiye through personalized advisory support and digital tools that improve irrigation, fertilizer use and crop health These initiatives are guided by PepsiCo's Livelihoods Implementation Framework for Engagement (LIFE), which measures outcomes across economic, social, and empowerment indicators. 

Strengthening Collaboration and Innovation

PepsiCo continues to expand strategic collaborations globally in an effort to accelerate impact at scale. Collaborations with organizations such as Practical Farmers of Iowa, Cool Soils, Rimba Collective, and Milhão are supporting the adoption of regenerative, restorative and protective practices across millions of additional acres while driving greenhouse gas reductions. 

The company is also investing in innovation—from precision agriculture tools to climate resilience platforms and lower-carbon inputs—to help enable farmers to adapt to climate change and enhance productivity. PepsiCo supported more than 15 global innovation projects in 2025 through its Positive Agriculture Outcome (PAO) Accelerator and reached over 1,100 farmers through demonstration farms, trials and training programs.

Looking Ahead

Five years into its pep+ strategy, PepsiCo sees an opportunity to deepen positive impact in farming communities. Through 2030, PepsiCo plans to focus on:

Building farmer, community, soil and climate resilience as well as biodiversity and watershed resilience through collaboration with stakeholders in its supply chain; Embedding impact across positive agriculture initiatives to help drive sustained, scalable outcomes; and Supporting transformation of farming ecosystems in key sourcing landscapes In 2025, PepsiCo continued working to enhance traceability, leverage technology and strengthen collaborations. Deforestation remains a core aspect of the company's Positive Agriculture agenda, and performance towards related goals will be reported later in 2026.

PepsiCo will continue to report on progress toward these ambitions as part of its pep+ reporting. More details can be found on our Agriculture ESG Topics A-Z page, as well as our Performance Metrics and Calculation Methodology file.

This disclosure contains statements reflecting our views about our future performance that constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are generally identified through the inclusion of words such as "aim," "anticipate," "believe," "drive," "estimate," "expect," "goal," "intend," "may," "plan," "project," "strategy," "strive," "target" and "will" or similar statements or variations of such terms and other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties. For information on certain factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from our expectations, please see PepsiCo's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. PepsiCo undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

About PepsiCo

PepsiCo products are enjoyed by consumers more than one billion times a day in more than 200 countries and territories around the world. PepsiCo generated nearly $94 billion in net revenue in 2025, driven by a complementary beverage and convenient foods portfolio that includes Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Gatorade, Pepsi-Cola, Mountain Dew, Quaker, and SodaStream. PepsiCo's product portfolio includes a wide range of enjoyable foods and beverages, including many iconic brands that generate more than $1 billion each in estimated annual retail sales.

Guiding PepsiCo is our vision to Be the Global Leader in Beverages and Convenient Foods by Winning with pep+ (PepsiCo Positive). pep+ is our strategic end-to-end transformation that puts sustainability and human capital at the center of how we will create value and growth by operating within planetary boundaries and inspiring positive change for planet and people. For more information, visit www.pepsico.com, and follow on X (Twitter), Instagram, Facebook, and LinkedIn @PepsiCo.

Media Contact:

Rachel Kent
[email protected]

_______________________________________

1 Sustainably sourced refers to in-scope ingredient volumes that meet the established criteria outlined in PepsiCo's Sustainable Sourcing Guidelines. Sustainable sourcing practices can help manage risks, but challenges like deforestation or social issues can persist in some regions

2 See Calculation Methodology for detail on how we measure progress on this metric. Metric published July 1, 2026

3 Key ingredients and materials in scope for this goal include potatoes, high fructose corn syrup, whole corn, whole oats, virgin fiber and more. For a full list, see our Sustainable Sourcing Guidelines

4 See Calculation Methodology for detail on how we measure progress on this metric. Metric published July 1, 2026

5 See Calculation Methodology for detail on how we measure progress on this metric. Metric published July 1, 2026

SOURCE PepsiCo, Inc.

LOS ANGELES, July 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Schall Law Firm, a national shareholder rights litigation firm, announces that it is investigating claims on behalf of investors of Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (“Hertz” or “the Company”) (NASDAQ: HTZ) for violations of the securities laws.

The investigation focuses on whether the Company issued false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose information pertinent to investors. Hertz announced on June 24, 2026, that its “wholly-owned indirect subsidiary, The Hertz Corporation ('Hertz Corp.'), intends to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $300 million in aggregate principal amount of Exchangeable Senior First-Lien Secured PIK Notes due 2030 (the 'Notes') in a private offering to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers." The Company added, "Hertz Corp. intends to use the net proceeds received from the offering of the Notes for general corporate purposes, which may include the repayment of outstanding indebtedness." Based on this news, shares of Hertz fell by more than 40.7% on the same day.

If you are a shareholder who suffered a loss, click here to participate.

We also encourage you to contact Brian Schall of the Schall Law Firm, 2049 Century Park East, Suite 2460, Los Angeles, CA 90067, at 310-301-3335, to discuss your rights free of charge. You can also reach us through the firm's website at www.schallfirm.com, or by email at [email protected].

The Schall Law Firm represents investors around the world and specializes in securities class action lawsuits and shareholder rights litigation.

This press release may be considered Attorney Advertising in some jurisdictions under the applicable law and rules of ethics.

CONTACT:

The Schall Law Firm 
Brian Schall, Esq. 
310-301-3335
[email protected]

www.schallfirm.com

Comparing Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD +0.57%) and Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM +0.27%) reveals two low-cost income powerhouses with distinct approaches to portfolio concentration and yield.

Income investors often gravitate toward these two funds for their rock-bottom fees and focus on seasoned, dividend-paying companies. While both seek to provide steady cash flow, they differ in how they screen for quality and how many individual stocks they ultimately hold.

Snapshot (cost & size)MetricVYMSCHDIssuerVanguardSchwabShare price (as of June 26, 2026)$158.22$32.09Expense ratio0.04%0.06%1-yr return (as of June 26, 2026)22.7%26%Dividend yield2.2%3.3%Beta0.720.67AUM$96.1 billion$96.4 billionBeta measures price volatility relative to the S&P 500; beta is calculated from five-year monthly returns. The 1-yr return represents total return over the trailing 12 months. Dividend yield is the trailing-12-month distribution yield.

The funds have pretty comparable expense ratios. However, Schwab’s ETF currently offers a higher payout, with a yield gap of 1.1 percentage points.

Performance & risk comparisonMetricVYMSCHDMax drawdown (5 yr)(15.8%)(16.8%)Growth of $1,000 over 5 years (total return)$1,744$1,524What's insideThe Schwab ETF focuses on 103 holdings, creating a more concentrated portfolio than many of its peers. Its largest positions include UnitedHealth Group (UNH +1.17%) at 4.5%, Merck (MRK 2.12%) at 4.45%, and Home Depot (HD +0.82%) at 4.42%. The fund is primarily weighted toward technology (19%), consumer defensive (18%), and healthcare (18%). It was launched in 2011. The ETF has paid $1.05 per share over the trailing 12 months.

Vanguard’s fund offers broader diversification through 605 holdings. Its largest positions include Broadcom (AVGO 1.22%) at 8.52%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM +1.23%) at 3.15%, and ExxonMobil (XOM 0.30%) at 2.53%. The portfolio spans technology (20%), financial services (20%), and healthcare (12%). It was launched in 2006. The Vanguard ETF has paid $3.63 per share over the trailing 12 months.

For more guidance on ETF investing, check out the full guide at this link.

What this means for investorsThese two dividend specialists share some commonalities. Assets under management are almost identical, and their expense ratios are very close. (I am not going to quibble about a 2-basis-point difference.)

Where they diverge in a significant way is their number of holdings. VYM has more than 600 positions, while SCHD has 103. However, I like that none of the stocks in SCHD exceed a 5% weighting. (Admittedly, in Vanguard's ETF, only one stock goes above that threshold.)

Finally, the Schwab fund yields more and has better recent returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but investors seeking income may find SCHD an appealing option.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Erin Kennedy has positions in Home Depot, Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, and Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Broadcom, Home Depot, JPMorgan Chase, Merck, and Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF. The Motley Fool recommends UnitedHealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Michael Burry published an update on his short positions. Astrid Stawiarz/Getty Images Michael Burry has placed fresh bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, Nvidia, Applied Materials, and an index of microchip stocks.

The investor of "The Big Short" fame, best known for predicting and profiting from the collapse of the mid-2000s housing bubble, revealed his latest shorts in a Substack post on Tuesday afternoon.

Burry said he refreshed his wager against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), purchasing bearish put options expiring in March 2027 instead of January 2027, with strike prices in the low-to-mid $400s rather than the low-to-mid $300s.

If the ETF falls below that price level, Burry's options will be "in the money," meaning he can profit by either selling the puts or exercising them to sell shares of the index at a premium to the market price.

SOXX — which includes Micron, AMD, Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel, and Applied Materials — has roughly quadrupled from its low last April, surging from around $160 to $640. It has doubled in value these past six months as investors have bet the AI boom will keep fueling insatiable demand for microchips.

Burry published a chart showing the index that SOXX tracks, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, is the most extended it's been relative to its 200-day moving average since the dot-com bubble.

"The SOXX itself is a pure form of overvaluation in an index, a form that is rarely seen and never so easily recognized as such," he wrote.

Burry said that he maintained his QQQ puts — wagers against the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 — and shorted Tesla, Caterpillar, Nvidia, and Applied Materials.

None of the companies Burry said he is shorting immediately responded to requests for comment from Business Insider.

Tesla shares have rallied 22% from their April low to around $420. Burry, who's previously shorted Elon Musk's automaker, said he was "happy it jumped back to this level."

Burry said he's never shorted Caterpillar before, and owning shares of the maker of construction and mining equipment has "always done great" for him in the past.

"I am a bit shocked I am short CAT but this is just not anywhere near supported by the actual business," he wrote in a comment on his Substack.

Caterpillar stock jumped by 86% in the first half of this year, and 167% over the past 12 months, partly because the company is seen as a major beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout.

Burry poured cold water on Tuesday's rebound in chip stocks, writing in another comment that big spending announcements by Samsung and SK Hynix would catapult the "already parabolic" semiconductor equipment stocks even higher, and his "friends in that space are just shaking their heads and laughing."

Michael Burry answers subscribers' questions on Substack.  Substack He said that thanks to his recent bets, he's increasingly positioned against the market. "I keep outright shorts small, but this has grown now to a substantial size," he wrote.

Burry pivoted from running a hedge fund to writing on Substack about his personal investments late last year. He's warned there's a speculative bubble around AI, and Big Tech companies are overinvesting in microchips from Nvidia and its peers that will quickly become outdated.

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Theron Mohamed You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.

Theron Mohamed is a London-based correspondent on the Trending team at Business Insider. His coverage spans finance, investing, wealth, markets, and the economy.Theron joined BI in 2019 as a reporter at Markets Insider and rose to the rank of correspondent before moving to the Trending team in 2024. He previously covered tech, media, and telecom stocks for Investors Chronicle magazine and had a brief stint on the Financial Times' Data team. He interned at the Wall Street Journal in New York where he primarily wrote for Heard on the Street.Theron has freelanced for The Independent, The Telegraph, WIRED, and several smaller publications. He holds an undergraduate degree in geography from the London School of Economics, and a master's degree in journalism from Columbia University.Theron often covers Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham and other top-flight investors. He also writes about the world's wealthiest people and shares financial advice from all manner of rich and successful people.Email Theron at [email protected] and follow him on X @theron_mohamed.Expertise

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Finance Stocks Investing More AI Tesla Tech stocks

Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci raises his rating on Salesforce to Buy from Hold with a $228 price target.

Deep in the summer trading season, the question is what the second half of 2026 will bring. While fundamental factors suggest upside, the stage also appears set for a correction in the S&P 500 that could shave 20% off its price.

Macroeconomic headwinds and fears of AI spending can keep money on the sidelines, which is about all it will take in the absence of other catalysts.

Get SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust alerts:

Market Simmers, Fear Index Poised for a SpikeThe Chicago Board of Options Exchange S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is the first chart for investors to watch. Otherwise known as the Fear Index, the VIX is trading near long-term lows. The critical factor, however, is that VIX is set up for a bullish swing that would have bearish implications for the S&P 500. An increase in the VIX, which measures the price of options relative to the underlying index, tends to accompany a decline in the S&P 500.

The best-case scenario is that the VIX forms a run-of-the-mill spike, associated with smaller, near-term corrective actions in the S&P 500, and quickly subsides. The worst-case scenario is that this index spikes, retreats, and spikes again, forecasting a major market reversal. As it stands, a major market reversal is not expected. The more likely outcome is that the index forms a run-of-the-mill correction and quickly subsides, allowing the S&P 500 to advance freely.

The S&P 500 Is at a Turning Point—Rally On, or Reversal Ahead?The S&P 500 is the 2nd chart for investors to closely watch this summer. The index has advanced by nearly 18% since April and now needs corrective action. May and June trading has reflected consolidation, but overbought conditions remain in place. The caveat is that overbought conditions can persist indefinitely, given bullish market conditions, and higher highs are still possible—investors can capture them with the S&P 500 ETF NYSEARCA: SPY.

Factors suggesting the market can continue higher include the MACD, which reflects a strong market, and the stochastic, which shows a trend-following buying signal despite its elevated nature. Other factors include the price action, which aligns with a Bullish Flag Pattern. In this scenario, the market needs only a catalyst to advance, and there are catalysts ahead.

Earnings are what drive the S&P 500 today and over the long-term. When earnings growth is present, the index tends to rise, and when it isn’t, it doesn’t. Centered in tech and the AI trade, the earnings outlook is robust, providing a triple-strength tailwind as of mid-2026. Forecasts expect broad market earnings growth this year and next, with acceleration from Q1 to Q2 and from Q2 to Q3, then holding steady at a high double-digit pace in Q4—and estimates continue rising.

Even so, based on Q1 2026 results that outperformed expectations by more than 1,000 basis points, the market still underestimates the AI trade. That sets the stage for the index to outperform in upcoming quarters and for the revision trend to remain positive.

Critical levels for the S&P include the top and bottom of its existing consolidation range. They represent minimum and maximum levels ahead of the expected catalyst, with a break to either side possible. Assuming no change in the earnings outlook, the index will likely advance, moving above 7,600 on its way to 8,000. Technical targets equate to the magnitude of the April-June rally, approximately 1,150 points from the critical breakout point, setting a year-end target of 8,750.

Oil Price Volatility Threatens AI MarketThe biggest risk for the S&P 500 is oil, the 3rd chart for investors to watch. WTI is down as of early July but may not stay down long. Although the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, critical infrastructure remains out of service amid declining global stockpiles. Capacity will ramp, but the timing is uncertain, leaving WTI’s price in the balance.

Oil price charts indicate an oversold market; but with a catalyst, it could rebound sharply. In this scenario, high oil prices keep inflation at unwanted levels for longer, increasing the risk of FOMC intervention.

Higher interest rates threaten the AI rally. Rising rates increase the cost of debt, and the AI boom is fueled by debt. Oracle NYSE: ORCL is the poster child, raising its long-term debt to over $120 billion, as of Q3 indications. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch Tool reflects an 80% chance for at least one 25 basis point hike by year’s end, and the odds have been rising. The risk is that rising rates slow the pace of new investment and impair what, for some, are already strained cash flows, leading the S&P 500 into a more sustained, potentially long-lasting, correction.

Should You Invest $1,000 in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Right Now?Before you consider SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust wasn't on the list.

While SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.

View The Five Stocks Here

Click the link to see MarketBeat's guide to investing in 5G and which 5G stocks show the most promise.

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Not long ago, the Federal Reserve completed its stress tests on the country’s largest banks, with many firms announcing large dividend increases afterward. The Fed’s stress tests look at how capable these large financial institutions are of weathering a recession. The tests were a reaction to the Great Financial Crisis, which made it clear that bank failures could have systemic negative effects on the overall economy.

The Fed’s 2026 stress tests analyzed the effects that a severe hypothetical recession would have on 32 banks. All 32 passed the test, showing that their assets would be sufficient to cover loan losses in a severe recession. On this basis, several banks went ahead with dividend increases, as they had extra capital to distribute to shareholders.

Get GS alerts:

The common equity tier 1 capital ratio (CET1) is the key metric tested. The ratio needs to stay above a minimum requirement of 4.5% to pass the test. In doing so, the bank shows it has the capital required to absorb large loan losses.

After passing the tests, these three banking giants plan to add juice to their dividends.

Goldman Plans to Continue Strong Dividend GrowthFirst up is The Goldman Sachs Group NYSE: GS. During the forecast period, Goldman’s CET1 ratio started at 14.3% and dropped as low as 11.4%, easily passing the 4.5% bar.

The Goldman Sachs Group Today

GS

The Goldman Sachs Group

$1,020.25 +8.88 (+0.88%)

As of 10:20 AM Eastern

This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.

52-Week Range$691.30▼

$1,125.00Dividend Yield1.76%

P/E Ratio18.65

Price Target$974.18

In response, the company said it “intends" to increase its common dividend from $4.50 to $5 per share. It says "intends" because the increase isn't formal until approved at the Board of Directors' next meeting—but with stress test results already in hand, that approval is largely a formality. Since the dividend isn't yet official, the record and payment dates are still unknown.

Currently, Goldman’s yield sits near 1.8%. After the planned increase, the stock’s indicated yield would move up to around 2%. Excluding this planned increase, Goldman has grown its dividend by a very strong 22.87% annually during the past five years.

Overall, Goldman has demonstrated its ability to hold up during a recession while also offering a solid and rapidly growing dividend to investors.

Wells Fargo Plans Over 10% Dividend Increase Upon Passing Fed’s TestWells Fargo & Company NYSE: WFC also demonstrated its ability to withstand a severe economic downturn during the Fed’s stress tests. During the test, the firm’s CET1 ratio started at 10.6% and dropped to 9.2%, staying well above the required hurdle.

Wells Fargo & Company Today

WFC

Wells Fargo & Company

$84.79 +2.15 (+2.60%)

As of 10:20 AM Eastern

This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.

52-Week Range$72.78▼

$97.76Dividend Yield2.12%

P/E Ratio13.08

Price Target$98.34

Similar to Goldman, Wells Fargo announced that it “expects” to increase its dividend. During Q3 2026, the company plans to boost its dividend from 45 cents to 50 cents per share, or an 11% increase.

Currently, Wells Fargo’s indicated yield is approximately 2.15%. After the expected increase, that figure would move up significantly to just below 2.4%.

Excluding this planned increase, its five-year annualized dividend growth rate is 6.86%. This figure is somewhat underwhelming, given the firm's significant 2020 dividend cut to 10 cents. Since then, however, its dividend has increased dramatically.

According to the Fed’s testing, Wells Fargo is in a solid position to weather the worst of a recession. Meanwhile, the company offers a meaningful dividend yield, combined with recovering dividend growth.

Citigroup Plans Sizeable Dividend Increase, Yield to Approach 2%Last up is Citigroup NYSE: C. The company began the stress test period with a CET1 ratio of 13.2%. During the test, its ratio fell to 10.3%, solidly surpassing the 4.5% minimum. Now, Citigroup plans to increase its dividend by 12% from 60 cents per share to 67 cents per share.

Citigroup Today

C

Citigroup

$140.10 +0.14 (+0.10%)

As of 10:19 AM Eastern

This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.

52-Week Range$85.46▼

$147.96Dividend Yield1.71%

P/E Ratio17.36

Price Target$139.62

Currently, the firm has an annualized dividend of $2.40, equating to a yield of just under 1.7%. The company’s planned dividend increase would bring the figure to just under 1.9%.

Notably, Citi has grown its dividend at a very slow rate over recent years. The company’s five-year dividend growth rate is only 2.61%, excluding this planned increase. This comes as during an over four-year period from 2019 to 2023, Citi did not increase its dividend at all. However, Citi has been turning around its business, with the firm posting record revenues across all of its five main divisions in 2025.

This has allowed the company to get back to dividend increases more recently.

Citi’s strong performance during the Fed's stress test demonstrates a level of financial resilience, giving it the ability to continue returning significant capital.

Analysts Forecast Gains in Wells Fargo After Meager PerformanceOverall, Goldman, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all easily passed the Fed’s stress test, staying well above the minimum requirement. Aside from capital returns, Wall Street analysts are forecasting the most upside in Wells Fargo among this group. The MarketBeat consensus price target on Wells Fargo sits near $98, implying gains of more than 15%.

This comes partially because Wells Fargo has underperformed, while Goldman and Citigroup have already gone on strong runs. Since the beginning of 2025, Citigroup is up more than 100%, Goldman is up more than 75%, and Wells Fargo’s return is less than 30%.

Should You Invest $1,000 in The Goldman Sachs Group Right Now?Before you consider The Goldman Sachs Group, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and The Goldman Sachs Group wasn't on the list.

While The Goldman Sachs Group currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.

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With the proliferation of data centers and electric vehicles, the electric grid will only get more strained. Download this report to learn how energy stocks can play a role in your portfolio as the global demand for energy continues to grow.

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WHIPPANY, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MetLife Investment Management (MIM), the institutional asset management business of MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET), today announced that Chris Aiken has been appointed head of Real Estate Equity Strategies, effective immediately. He will report to Andrea Drasites, global head of Real Estate and Agricultural Finance.

“Chris is an integral part of our real estate platform and has consistently demonstrated strong leadership skills, deep market expertise and a commitment to delivering value for our clients,” said Brian Funk, president of MIM. “His experience across acquisitions, development and portfolio strategy, combined with his collaborative style, positions him well to lead our Real Estate Equity Strategies business as we continue to advance the platform.”

As head of Real Estate Equity Strategies, Aiken will lead MIM’s direct property investment platform and oversee investing activities on behalf of MetLife’s general account and third-party institutional investors across core, core-plus, build-to-core, value-add and opportunistic strategies.

MIM’s real estate portfolio represented $106.2 billion in assets under management as of March 31, 2026.1 The announcement follows the appointment of Andrea Drasites as global head of Real Estate and Agricultural Finance, reflecting the firm’s continued investment in its real estate capabilities and leadership team as it expands its global platform.

Prior to assuming this role, Aiken served as head of Acquisitions for MIM’s Real Estate Equity Strategies Group. Before joining MIM, he was a Managing Director at Safanad, where he led all aspects of the investment lifecycle across multiple real estate strategies. He also held real estate investment roles at BlackRock and Salomon Smith Barney.

Aiken earned an M.S. in Real Estate Finance from New York University and a B.A. in Business Administration from Morehouse College. He is a member and co-chair of the Membership Committee for the Real Estate Executive Council and a member of the Urban Land Institute’s Urban Development Mixed-Use Council.

About MetLife Investment Management

MetLife Investment Management, the institutional asset management business of MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET), provides tailored investment management solutions to institutional investors worldwide. MetLife Investment Management has long-established global expertise in public fixed income, private fixed income, real estate, equity, alternatives, multi-asset, and insurance solutions and provides public and private pension plans, insurance companies, endowments, funds and other institutional clients with a range of bespoke investment solutions that seek to meet a range of long-term investment objectives and risk-adjusted returns over time. MetLife Investment Management has over 150 years of investment experience and, as of March 31, 2026, had $736.3 billion in total assets under management. For more information, see MetLife Investment Management’s Total Assets Under Management fact sheet for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 available on MetLife’s Investor Relations web page (https://investor.metlife.com).

About MetLife

MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET), through its subsidiaries and affiliates (“MetLife”), is one of the world’s leading financial services companies, providing insurance, annuities, employee benefits and asset management to help individual and institutional customers build a more confident future. Founded in 1868, MetLife has operations in more than 40 markets globally and holds leading positions in the United States, Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East. For more information, visit https://www.metlife.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

The forward-looking statements in this news release, using words such as “continue,” “positions,” “seek” and “will,” are based on assumptions and expectations that involve risks and uncertainties, including the “Risk Factors” MetLife, Inc. describes in its U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings. MetLife’s future results could differ, and it does not undertake any obligation to publicly correct or update any of these statements.

1 At estimated fair value. Mortgage loans, real estate and real estate joint ventures are included at net asset value, net of deduction for encumbering debt and have been adjusted from carrying value to estimated fair value.

U.S. stocks traded lower this morning, with the Dow Jones index falling over 200 points on Wednesday.

Following the market opening Wednesday, the Dow traded down 0.41% to 52,106.03 while the NASDAQ fell 0.67% to 26,037.18. The S&P 500 also fell, dropping, 0.48% to 7,463.10.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

Communication services shares jumped by 2% on Wednesday.

In trading on Wednesday, information technology stocks fell by 1.9%.

Top Headline

General Mills (NYSE:GIS) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results.

General Mills reported quarterly earnings of 95 cents per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 80 cents per share. The company reported quarterly sales of $4.610 billion which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $4.595 billion.

Equities Trading UP
           

Equities Trading DOWN

Commodities

In commodity news, oil traded down 0.5% to $69.16 while gold traded down 0.1% at $4,036.60.

Silver traded down 1.3% to $59.160 on Wednesday, while copper fell 1.5% to $6.1625.

Euro zone

European shares were lower today. The eurozone’s STOXX 600 declined 0.5%, while Spain’s IBEX 35 Index fell 0.7%. London’s FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, Germany’s DAX slipped 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 dipped 0.9%.

Asia Pacific Markets

Asian markets closed higher on Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 0.59%, China’s Shanghai Composite rising 0.44% and India’s BSE Sensex gaining 0.58%.

Economics

U.S. private businesses added 98,000 jobs in June, down from 122,000 in May and market estimates of 113,000. U.S. volume of mortgage applications came in unchanged from the previous week during the last week of June. Photo via Shutterstock

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PlayStation will soon end physical disc production for all new games released on its consoles, the company announced Wednesday morning.

Starting January 2028, new games released on the Sony-owned legacy console will be sold either through the PlayStation Store or through retailers in digital formats, a move that comes as consumers deepen their pivot to digital media to access games, stream music and more.

The move was a "natural direction" to adapt as consumers' digital game preference "significantly outpaces physical discs," the company wrote in a blog post, adding that the decision wouldn't have an impact on disc games coming out before 2028.

"This transition will enable us to align more closely with how most of our community prefers to access and play games today," the post read.

Read more CNBC tech newsAnthropic says Trump admin has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5OpenAI, Anthropic backer MGX raises one of the biggest AI funds ever as it closes at $49 billionEmployers who laid off workers citing AI are already starting to regret itRecord chip rally adds $2 trillion in combined value to Micron, Intel and AMD in second quarterAs leading console makers contend with the pull towards digital, skyrocketing memory prices fueled by the artificial intelligence buildout have led to price hikes on consoles.

Sony raised prices on its flagship line of PlayStation 5 consoles in April, hiking its disc edition from $549.99 to $649.99.

Microsoft's Xbox will also increase prices starting on Aug. 1, with Series S consoles containing 512GB of storage set to go up by about $100 to about $500. Nintendo's Switch 2 will get $50 pricier in the U.S. starting Sept. 1.

CNBC has reached out to PlayStation for additional comment.

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DISTRIBUTED-WORKFORCE/OAKLAND, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Square today announced a new ChatGPT app and Claude plugin, helping sellers get discovered and transact at the exact moment customers are making purchasing decisions through AI-powered conversations. Square was built to help sellers accept payments where their customers are. This foundation has expanded to helping sellers reach customers across key digital channels, from search and maps to social and marketplaces. As consumers increasingly.

CMA CGM will offer ocean transport and carrier services under a nonexclusive agreement with FedEx and the companies will also work together on select air-cargo capacity solutions.

Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP Securities Litigation Partner James (Josh) Wilson Encourages Investors Who Suffered Losses In First Solar To Contact Him Directly To Discuss Their Options

If you purchased or acquired securities in First Solar between February 26, 2025 and February 24, 2026 and would like to discuss your legal rights, call Faruqi & Faruqi partner Josh Wilson directly at 877-247-4292 or 212-983-9330 (Ext. 1310).

[You may also click here for additional information]

, /PRNewswire/ -- Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP, a leading national securities law firm, is investigating potential claims against First Solar, Inc. ("First Solar" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: FSLR) and reminds investors of the August 24, 2026 deadline to seek the role of lead plaintiff in a federal securities class action that has been filed against the Company.

James (Josh) Wilson, Faruqi & Faruqi Senior Partner (PRNewsfoto/Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP) Faruqi & Faruqi is a leading national securities law firm with offices in New York, Pennsylvania, California and Georgia. The firm has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors since its founding in 1995. See www.faruqilaw.com.

As detailed below, the complaint alleges that the Company and its executives violated federal securities laws by making false and/or misleading statements and/or failing to disclose that: (1) Defendants had overstated First Solar's capacity to manage the impact of U.S. tariff policy on the Company's business; (2) Defendants understated the extent to which its responses to U.S. tariff policy, including the intentional underutilization of production facilities in Malaysia and Vietnam, and attempted relocation of production to the U.S., were likely to negatively impact First Solar's projected performance in the 2026 fiscal year; and (3) as a result, Defendants' public statements were materially false and misleading at all relevant times.

The truth began to emerge on January 7, 2026, when Jefferies downgraded First Solar to Hold from Buy, noting that during 2025, the Company had lowered guidance, faced significant de-bookings and experienced margin compression through 2025. Jefferies also flagged that "[international] facilities remain a pain point while tariffs exist" and "underutilization at [international] facilities remains a concern." The Jefferies analyst also predicted that First Solar's deployment opportunities were likely to be more limited in 2026.

On this news, First Solar's stock price fell $27.67 per share, or 10.29%, to close at $241.11 per share on January 7, 2026.

Then, on February 24, 2026, First Solar issued a press release "announc[ing] financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025." Among other items, First Solar announced earnings that missed expectations by a wide margin and issued lower-than-expected FY 2026 revenue guidance, citing customer headwinds such as permitting delays under the Trump administration. Following First Solar's announcement, Baird Research downgraded its stock to Neutral from Outperform, citing "several question marks in forward outlook".

On this news, First Solar's stock price fell $33.09 per share, or 13.61%, to close at $210.12 per share on February 25, 2026.

The court-appointed lead plaintiff is the investor with the largest financial interest in the relief sought by the class who is adequate and typical of class members who directs and oversees the litigation on behalf of the putative class. Any member of the putative class may move the Court to serve as lead plaintiff through counsel of their choice, or may choose to do nothing and remain an absent class member. Your ability to share in any recovery is not affected by the decision to serve as a lead plaintiff or not.

Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP also encourages anyone with information regarding First Solar's conduct to contact the firm, including whistleblowers, former employees, shareholders and others.

To learn more about the First Solar, Inc. class action, go to www.faruqilaw.com/FSLR or call Faruqi & Faruqi partner Josh Wilson directly at 877-247-4292 or 212-983-9330 (Ext. 1310).

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) for Investors Regarding the First Solar, Inc. Securities Class Action Lawsuit:

What is the First Solar securities fraud lawsuit about?

The lawsuit alleges that First Solar, Inc. and certain executives violated federal securities laws by making false or misleading statements and failing to disclose material information regarding the impact of U.S. tariff policies, production facility utilization, and risks to the Company's projected 2026 financial performance.

Who may be eligible to participate in the lawsuit?

Investors who purchased or otherwise acquired First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) securities during the applicable Class Period and suffered losses may be eligible to participate in the securities class action. Eligibility will depend on the specific circumstances of each investor's transactions and losses.

What is a lead plaintiff, and how can I seek appointment?

A lead plaintiff is a court-appointed representative who acts on behalf of all class members in directing the litigation. Any eligible investor may seek appointment as lead plaintiff by filing the appropriate motion with the court on or before the August 24, 2026 deadline.

What should investors do if they purchased First Solar stock during the Class Period?

Investors who purchased First Solar securities during the Class Period and experienced losses should review their legal rights and options. They may contact counsel to discuss the lawsuit, determine whether they qualify to participate, and learn more about seeking appointment as lead plaintiff before the applicable deadline.

Why should investors contact Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP?

Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP has represented investors in securities litigation for decades and has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for shareholders. Investors who purchased First Solar securities during the Class Period may contact the firm to discuss their legal rights, potential claims, and the lead plaintiff process at no cost or obligation.

Attorney Advertising. The law firm responsible for this advertisement is Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP (www.faruqilaw.com). Prior results do not guarantee or predict a similar outcome with respect to any future matter. We welcome the opportunity to discuss your particular case. All communications will be treated in a confidential manner.

SOURCE Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP

Wall Street's Reassessment of First Solar Quantified Investor Losses: Jefferies and Baird Downgrades Triggered Combined $60.76 Per Share Decline as Analyst Confidence Collapsed Over Tariff and Production Risks

, /PRNewswire/ -- Levi & Korsinsky, LLP alerts investors in First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) that a securities class action has been filed on behalf of shareholders who purchased securities between February 26, 2025 and February 24, 2026. Check if you can recover your investment losses. You may also contact Joseph E. Levi, Esq. at [email protected] or (212) 363-7500.

Guidance downgrades, missed expectations, and analyst commentary drove FSLR shares down a combined $60.76 per share during the Class Period, erasing billions in market capitalization across 107 million outstanding shares. The lead plaintiff deadline is August 24, 2026.

Initial Analyst Optimism During the Class Period

Throughout much of 2025, sell-side coverage of First Solar reflected management's narrative that U.S. tariff policy was a net positive for the company. The lawsuit contends that analysts built their models on company representations that the trade environment was "long term favorable" and that international facility challenges were manageable and temporary. This optimism persisted even as the company reduced production in Malaysia and Vietnam and lost 6.6 gigawatts of bookings from BP affiliate defaults.

The Jefferies Downgrade: January 7, 2026

The first major break in analyst sentiment came when Jefferies downgraded FSLR from Buy to Hold. The Jefferies analyst identified several issues that had accumulated throughout 2025:

Repeated downward guidance revisions during the year Significant customer de-bookings, including the BP affiliate default Margin compression from underutilization costs at international facilities International facilities characterized as a "pain point" and ongoing "concern" while tariffs persisted A prediction that deployment opportunities would be more limited in 2026 FSLR shares fell 27.67, or 10.29%, to close at 241.11 on January 7, 2026. 

The Baird Downgrade: February 25, 2026

After First Solar reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results that missed expectations and issued lower-than-expected FY 2026 revenue guidance, Baird Research downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral. Baird cited "several question marks in forward outlook," reflecting concerns about customer headwinds and permitting delays. FSLR shares fell an additional 33.09, or 13.61%, to close at 210.12.

Speak with an attorney about recovering damages or call (212) 363-7500.

Why Analyst Shifts Matter for FSLR Investors

The action claims that these downgrades represented the market correcting for artificial inflation sustained by management's allegedly misleading reassurances. As alleged, when independent analysts finally incorporated the true scope of international facility underutilization and onshoring costs into their models, the resulting repricing quantified the gap between what investors were told and what was actually occurring.

"When analyst expectations are built on incomplete or misleading company disclosures, the resulting corrections can cause significant investor harm. In this case, two separate downgrades reflected the market absorbing information that allegedly should have been disclosed much earlier." -- Joseph E. Levi, Esq.

Find out if you qualify to recover your per-share losses or contact Joseph E. Levi, Esq. at (212) 363-7500.

ABOUT LEVI & KORSINSKY, LLP — Over the past 20 years, Levi & Korsinsky has secured hundreds of millions of dollars for aggrieved shareholders. The firm has extensive expertise in complex securities litigation and a team of over 70 employees. For seven consecutive years, Levi & Korsinsky has ranked in ISS Securities Class Action Services' Top 50 Report. Investors who suffered losses have until August 24, 2026 to seek appointment as lead plaintiff. Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee similar outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions About the FSLR Lawsuit

Q: How much did FSLR stock drop? A: Shares suffered two significant declines during the Class Period. On January 7, 2026, FSLR fell 27.67 per share (10.29%) following the Jefferies downgrade. On February 25,2026, shares fell an additional 33.09 per share (13.61%) after disappointing earnings and a Baird downgrade, closing at $210.12.

Q: What specific misstatements does the FSLR lawsuit allege? A: The complaint alleges First Solar made materially false or misleading statements regarding the company's ability to manage U.S. tariff impacts and understated how international facility underutilization and production onshoring would negatively affect projected 2026 performance. When the true state was revealed through analyst downgrades and earnings disclosures, the stock price declined sharply.

Q: What is the FSLR lead plaintiff deadline? A: The deadline to apply for lead plaintiff appointment is August 24, 2026. This deadline applies only to investors seeking to serve as lead plaintiff. Class members who do not apply may still participate in any recovery without taking action before this date.

Q: What if I already sold my FSLR shares -- can I still recover losses? A: Yes. Eligibility is based on when you purchased, not whether you still hold them. Investors who bought during the class period and sold at a loss may still participate.

Q: Do I need to go to court or give testimony? A: No. The overwhelming majority of class members never appear in court or give depositions. You submit a claim form to receive your portion of recovery.

Q: What does it cost me to participate? A: Nothing. Securities class actions are handled on a pure contingency basis. No upfront fees, no retainer, no out-of-pocket costs.

Q: What do FSLR investors need to do right now? A: Gather brokerage records including purchase dates, share quantities, and prices paid. Contact Levi & Korsinsky for a free, no-obligation evaluation at [email protected] or (212) 363-7500. No immediate action is required to remain eligible as a class member.

CONTACT:

Levi & Korsinsky, LLP

Joseph E. Levi, Esq.

Ed Korsinsky, Esq.

33 Whitehall Street, 27th Floor

New York, NY 10004

[email protected]

Tel: (212) 363-7500

Fax: (212) 363-7171

SOURCE Levi & Korsinsky, LLP

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Hearing aids restore conversations. Dental work restores smiles. Vision correction restores independence. Many of the expenses Medicare leaves uncovered sit at the intersection of appearance, confidence, and daily quality of life. Unfortunately, all those things cost money. Big money. So here’s how to close the gap in your budget… and your teeth.

What Medicare Leaves on Your Tab Original Medicare generally does not cover routine dental, vision, or hearing care, nor does it pay for most cosmetic procedures or elective wellness services. Here are some examples where your feel-good-about-yourself budget will have to pick up where Medicare leaves off:

Premium hearing aids, which offer features such as background-noise reduction, Bluetooth connectivity, rechargeable batteries, and smartphone integration, often cost $2,000 to $7,000 per pair out of pocket. Dental implants, commonly needed after tooth loss caused by age, decay, injury, or gum disease, routinely cost several thousand dollars per tooth. Cataract surgery is usually covered by Medicare, but many retirees pay thousands more for premium lens upgrades that can correct astigmatism or reduce dependence on glasses. Hair restoration, whether to address age-related hair loss, lingering effects of illness, or treatment-related thinning, can range from a few thousand dollars for non-surgical treatments to $15,000 or more for transplant procedures. Individually, these expenses may seem manageable. Together, they can create a substantial quality-of-life bill that retirees must fund themselves, even while continuing to pay Medicare premiums every month.

The Quality-of-Life Budget Three realistic profiles frame the math.

Retiree A spends roughly $3,000 a year on eyeglasses, dental work, and routine out-of-pocket vision and hearing expenses. Retiree B spends about $7,500 on hearing aids, a dental implant, dermatology treatments, or premium cataract lens upgrades. Retiree C runs near $15,000 with major dental work, multiple implants, hair restoration, cosmetic procedures, and other expenses Medicare largely leaves uncovered. Medicare often considers these expenses discretionary or non-essential. Many retirees see them differently. Retirement is not merely about living longer. It is also about maintaining the quality of life that makes those years enjoyable.

The Capital Required at Each Yield Tier The core math is income target divided by yield equals capital required.

Annual spend 3.5% 5% 10% $3,000 (A) $85,700 $60,000 $30,000 $7,500 (B) $214,300 $150,000 $75,000 $15,000 (C) $428,600 $300,000 $150,000 For context, the 10-year Treasury yields almost 4.5% and the national average 12-month CD pays under 2%, so the higher tiers require equity risk.

The Conservative Tier: 3% to 4% Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ | JNJ Price Prediction) just raised its quarterly payout to $1.34, its 64th straight annual increase. Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) has lifted its dividend for 70 consecutive years. PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) yields about 4% after its 54th annual hike. NextEra Energy is guiding to roughly 10% dividend growth through 2026, then 6% out to 2028. Yields are lower, but the income stream compounds.

The Moderate Tier: 5% to 7% Realty Income (NYSE:O) pays a monthly dividend, currently yielding about 5.3%, and has declared 670 consecutive monthly dividends. Verizon yields around 6% with a 9x forward P/E. Income drops by half from the conservative tier, but growth slows and total return depends more on the payout itself.

The Aggressive Tier: 8%+ Altria (NYSE:MO) yields roughly 6% today and historically sits in the 7% to 8% range, with negative book value reflecting capital returned to shareholders. Add business development companies, mortgage REITs, and high-yield bond funds and yields of 9% to 12% become available, with real risk of distribution cuts and principal erosion.

Why Growth Beats Headline Yield A 3.5% portfolio growing distributions 8% a year doubles its income in roughly nine years, useful when national healthcare spending climbed from $3.43 trillion to $3.70 trillion in 16 months and the 2026 Social Security COLA is just 2.8%. A flat 10% yield looks better on day one and worse by year ten.

What to Do Next Estimate your actual annual non-Medicare spend over the past two years, not a guess; most retirees underestimate it. Compare the 10-year total return of a dividend-growth basket against a 9%-yielding income fund to see compounding in action. If you are within five years of Medicare, model IRMAA at your projected income; one bracket can cost thousands a year. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways CF Industries is gaining from strong global nitrogen demand across key markets and higher fertilizer prices.CF expects tight nitrogen markets in 2026 as demand, geopolitics and supply constraints support pricing.CF faces margin pressure as higher natural gas costs raise production expenses and cost of sales. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) gains on strong nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets, higher nitrogen prices and its operational strength amid headwinds from higher natural gas costs.

The CF stock has gained 15.4% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 54.2% decline.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s find out why CF stock is worth retaining at the moment.

Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Higher Prices Aid CF StockCF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity.  Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics.

High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics.  Demand for urea is likely to remain healthy in Brazil in 2026, driven by higher corn plantings. In India, demand is expected to be driven by low inventory levels, reduced domestic production and undelivered volumes due to the Iran war. The company expects India’s urea imports to rise year over year in 2026, potentially reaching 10-12 million metric tons.

CF, on its first-quarter call, said the global nitrogen market remains tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.

Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased compared to the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.

Higher Natural Gas Costs Ail CF IndustriesCF remains hamstrung by headwinds from higher costs stemming from an uptick in natural gas prices. Higher prices of natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, have resulted in increased production costs for CF. It saw a notable rise in natural gas costs during 2025. The average cost of natural gas increased to $3.31 per MMBtu (million metric British thermal unit) in 2025 from $2.40 per MMBtu a year ago.

The same for first-quarter 2026 increased to $4.57 per MMBtu from $3.68 per MMBtu a year ago, leading to a higher cost of sales. Natural gas prices have shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher gas costs are expected to weigh on CF’s margins.

CF’s Zacks Rank & Other Key PicksCF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are L.B. Foster Company (FSTR - Free Report) , Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB - Free Report) . FSTR, ALB and LYB carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for L.B. Foster’s current-year earnings is pegged at $1.74 per share, implying a 152.2% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSTR’s current-year earnings has been revised 12.3% higher over the past 60 days.

 The consensus estimate for Albemarle’s current-year earnings is pegged at $12.98 per share, indicating a 1,743.2% year-over-year increase. ALB’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 54.1%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LyondellBasell’s current-year earnings stands at $9.22 per share, implying a 442.2% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LYB’s current-year earnings has been revised 69.5% higher over the past 60 days.

Jul 1, 2026, 1:00 p.m.

2 min read

(Unsplash)Summary

Analysts expect AI, Federal Reserve policy and shifting market structure to drive crypto and equity markets through the second half of the year.Former Credit Suisse executive Mark Connors says AI is creating a widening divide between companies that benefit from the technology and those at risk of disruption.Hyperion Decimus' Chris Sullivan argues bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact and believes the market is nearing a point where "it's so bearish it's bullish."The first half of the year was defined by the AI trade. The second half may be defined by a tougher question: Which companies and assets actually stand to benefit from it?

The contrast between crypto and equities has been one of this year's defining market stories. AI enthusiasm propelled technology stocks to record highs, while bitcoin BTC$59,720.20 has tumbled 46% to $58,300 on Tuesday.

Market analysts say investors are entering a period where AI, monetary policy and changing market structure could drive sharp swings across equities and cryptocurrencies, even as the broader economy remains resilient.

Former Credit Suisse global head of portfolio and Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors argued AI is no longer lifting the technology sector indiscriminately. Instead, it is separating companies building AI infrastructure from businesses whose products or services could be disrupted by large language models and AI agents.

"The market is being cleaved in two," he said in an interview with CoinDesk, pointing to Accenture's recent selloff as evidence that investors are reassessing consulting firms as generative AI automates more knowledge work. He also cited weakness in software companies, including Autodesk and Intuit, saying it suggests pressure on traditional software firms could continue.

At the same time, he expects macroeconomic uncertainty to remain the dominant force across financial markets. Correlations among stocks, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies have risen in recent months, according to Kestrel data, suggesting investors are responding more to policy developments than to company-specific fundamentals.

"The rest of the year is going to be messy," he said, arguing uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and Treasury financing could keep markets volatile before financial conditions eventually improve.

Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus, sees a similar backdrop of elevated uncertainty but believes investors are paying too much attention to market narratives and not enough to market mechanics.

He argued that structural changes following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), combined with institutional hedging activity in derivatives markets, have changed how bitcoin trades and weakened many of its historical relationships with broader macro indicators.

Bitcoin’s recent downturn has also challenged the idea that bitcoin had outgrown its traditional four-year cycle. Following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, some market participants argued institutional capital would smooth out bitcoin's volatility and bring an end to its familiar boom-and-bust pattern. Sullivan disagrees, saying the current decline still fits within historical market cycles and that he is waiting for a final bottoming pattern before declaring the bear market over.

"We are nearing the point of where it's so bearish it's bullish" from a risk-reward perspective, he said. Sullivan continues to expect bitcoin to establish a bear-market bottom in the $54,000 to $58,000 range, arguing that improving on-chain fundamentals and historically depressed investor sentiment could provide an attractive setup for long-term investors once the current period of uncertainty passes.

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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Jun 30, 2026

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Why it matters:

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States have faced a sharp wave of outflows over the past two months. Data shared by the crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant indicates a total withdrawal of 100,000 BTC from these funds. This development stands out as the largest decline seen since the ETFs were launched in January 2024.

Outflows hit record-breaking levelsAccording to recent data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a significant drop in cumulative net inflows. The removal of 100,000 BTC signals the largest wave of sales on record, with the total outflow now exceeding $11 billion. This trend is also connected to institutional investors exercising greater caution before opening new positions.

Quick definition: A spot Bitcoin ETF is an investment fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin directly and is traded on exchanges like a regular stock. CryptoQuant is a widely recognized crypto analytics platform specializing in on-chain data and exchange flows.

CryptoQuant’s data reveals that cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have sharply decreased, with outflows totaling 100,000 BTC.

This outflow exceeding $11 billion marks the steepest weekly drop recorded since spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading. The accelerating withdrawals point to a dampened investor appetite and a notable slowdown in risk-taking behavior throughout the crypto market.

Early enthusiasm gives way to cautionAt their launch, spot Bitcoin ETFs were hailed as a milestone for the digital asset industry, drawing significant interest from a broad range of investors. These products provided institutional and retail investors with streamlined access to Bitcoin via established financial markets, fueling billions of dollars in inflows within weeks.

The current scenario, however, tells a markedly different story. Investor caution has spread, leading to steady daily outflows across nearly every trading day of the past two months. This period represents the longest recorded stretch of back-to-back daily outflows in the short history of spot Bitcoin ETF trading.

Over the past two months, ETFs saw capital drain on nearly every day of the week, setting a new record for the longest series of consecutive daily outflows.

Renewed questions about market interestThe persistent outflows from these funds have reignited discussion around the influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs on the market and whether investor interest will rebound. A growing “wait and see” sentiment among institutional players signals that the brisk inflows seen earlier this year have slowed to a more measured pace.

Current data underscores that spot Bitcoin ETFs still serve as a key indicator for the broader crypto market, though the past two months have clearly seen a reversal in capital flows. The extent and duration of these outflows continue to fuel debate about what this means for Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Bitcoin sits near $58,000 to $60,000 with the Fear and Greed Index buried in extreme fear. History says washed-out sentiment often precedes bottoms, but fear is a signal, not a floor. Here are the gauges traders are actually watching.

Summary

Bitcoin trades near $58,000 to $60,000 as of July 1, 2026, down about 53% from its October 2025 record of $126,198, after back-to-back quarterly losses to open the year. The Fear and Greed Index sits around 12 to 16, deep in extreme fear, a zone that has historically appeared near local bottoms but is not a timing tool on its own. Bullish positioning signals are stacking up: open interest has collapsed from over $90 billion to about $44.5 billion, leverage is flushed, and coins are leaving exchanges in a pattern that suggests accumulation. The bearish counterweight is real: spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a record $4.5 billion of outflows in June, the Fed is hawkish with a likely December rate hike priced in, and one cycle model points to a bottom only around mid-October. The signals that would confirm a turn are concrete: reclaiming the 20-day and longer moving averages, a flip back to ETF inflows, open interest rebuilding alongside price, and the fear gauge lifting off its extremes. Extreme fear is one of the most misread conditions in markets. When the Fear and Greed Index drops into the low teens, the crowd reads it as a reason to run, and the contrarian reads it as a reason to buy. Both are oversimplifying. Sentiment this low tells you that positioning is stretched and conviction is gone, which is often the raw material of a bottom, but “often” is not “now,” and fear can always get more extreme before it breaks.

The useful move is not to treat the fear gauge as a signal by itself, but to read it alongside the harder data on positioning, flows, and price. This piece walks through the signals traders are watching, lays out the bullish and bearish readings of each, and identifies what would actually confirm that the turn has arrived. The key point is simple: fear tells traders to pay attention, not to assume the bottom is already in.

What the Fear and Greed Index is saying Start with the gauge everyone quotes. The Fear and Greed Index compresses several inputs, volatility, momentum, volume, and social signals, into a single 0 to 100 reading, and the latest chart still shows the market deep in extreme fear. Historically, readings this low have clustered near local bottoms, because they mark the point where sellers have largely exhausted themselves and the marginal holder is fearful rather than greedy. That is the contrarian appeal: when nobody wants the asset, much of the selling may already be done.

Source: CoinMarketCap The caution is that the index is a description of the present, not a prediction of the future. Extreme fear can persist for weeks, and it can deepen. During genuine downtrends, the gauge has sat in fear for long stretches while price kept falling, so treating a low reading as an automatic buy signal has burned plenty of traders. The right way to use it is as context: it tells you the emotional backdrop is washed out, which raises the odds that other bottoming signals are meaningful, without confirming anything on its own.

That is why how the index works matters before using it as a trading signal. The number is useful because it summarizes the market mood, but it is not a floor under price. For confirmation, traders still need price levels, ETF flows, leverage data, and macro conditions to line up.

Signal one: positioning has reset The most constructive signal under the surface is what happened to leverage. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has collapsed from above $90 billion to roughly $44.5 billion over recent weeks, less than half its peak. That drop reflects long liquidations, profit-taking, and traders reducing speculative exposure. In plain terms, the leverage that builds up in a rally and makes a market fragile has been flushed out.

Why this matters for a turn is mechanical. A market loaded with leveraged longs is vulnerable, because small drops trigger liquidations that cascade into larger drops. A market where that leverage has been cleared is sturdier, because the forced-selling fuel is gone. Resets like this often precede bottoms, since they remove the overhang that drags price lower and leave room for fresh positioning to push the other way.

The bearish reading is that falling open interest also signals fading demand and cautious participation, not just healthy deleveraging. Traders stepping back can mean they see no reason to buy, and a market with thin conviction can drift lower on light volume. The reset is a necessary condition for a durable bottom, but it is not sufficient by itself, because clean positioning can still sit under a price that keeps grinding down.

Signal two: exchange flows and accumulation The second signal comes from where the coins are moving. Through the drawdown, Bitcoin has seen exchange outflows exceed inflows, meaning more coins are leaving exchanges than arriving. That pattern is typically read as accumulation: holders pulling coins into self-custody or long-term storage rather than keeping them on exchanges ready to sell. When supply leaves the venues where selling happens, it thins the pool of coins available to hit the market.

The bullish interpretation is that long-term holders are quietly buying weakness while short-term traders panic, a divergence that has marked accumulation phases before. Steady outflows during extreme fear suggest conviction underneath the fear, the kind of hands that absorb selling and set the base for a recovery. That is the constructive version of the on-chain story, and it fits with the broader idea that the market is moving from forced selling toward accumulation.

The counterpoint is that exchange flows are noisy and can reflect custody shifts, institutional plumbing, or one-off moves rather than genuine accumulation. Outflows are encouraging, but they are a soft signal, easily overstated. On their own they confirm that some holders are unbothered, not that the bottom is in. They matter most when they line up with stronger evidence from ETF flows and price.

Signal three: the ETF bid The third signal is the one cutting against the bulls, and it is the most important on the bearish side. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $4.5 billion of net outflows in June 2026, their worst month since launching, removing the steady institutional bid that had cushioned earlier declines. The funds that were supposed to represent durable, price-insensitive demand instead became a source of selling, and their flows have tracked the drawdown closely.

This matters because the ETF bid was a structural change in how Bitcoin traded. When it was flowing in, it provided a floor of consistent demand. When it reverses, that floor becomes a headwind, and the market has to find other buyers to absorb the redemptions. For sentiment to turn convincingly, this is the signal that most needs to flip.

A return to sustained ETF inflows would tell the market that institutions are stepping back in, which would validate the bullish reading of the other signals. Continued outflows would keep the pressure on regardless of how washed out the fear gauge looks. That is why the ETF bid that reversed deserves more weight than a sentiment reading alone. In this cycle, flows are not a side detail; they are one of the main channels moving the market.

Signal four: oversold technicals The fourth signal is on the chart. The relative strength index has dropped near 30, the oversold threshold, indicating that momentum has fallen far and fast and that the move may be stretched to the downside. Price sits near support in the $58,000 area, below the 20-day exponential moving average around $62,450, and well beneath the longer-term moving averages, the 200-day near $65,200 and the 50-month near $65,600, that mark the bull-bear boundaries.

The bullish read is that oversold conditions at support are where reversals begin, and a bounce off the high $50,000s that reclaims the moving averages would signal the downtrend is weakening. The bearish read is that oversold can stay oversold in a strong downtrend. Until price actually reclaims those moving averages, the path of least resistance points lower, with a break below support opening the door toward the mid-$50,000s. The technicals frame the levels, but they do not resolve the direction until price picks one.

That is why the level-based bottom question matters alongside sentiment. Bitcoin does not bottom because the index is low; it bottoms when buyers defend levels, reclaim resistance, and force trend-followers to change position. The fear gauge tells traders the market is stretched. The chart tells them whether the stretch is becoming a reversal.

The bull read: capitulation precedes bottoms Put the constructive signals together and a coherent bottoming case emerges. Extreme fear, flushed leverage, steady accumulation, and oversold momentum are the classic ingredients of capitulation, the moment when the last weak hands sell and stronger hands absorb the supply. In prior cycles, this combination has marked the exhaustion of a downtrend, the point where selling pressure runs out because everyone inclined to sell already has. In this reading, the current setup looks less like the start of a new collapse and more like the late stage of a forced reset.

The bull case also treats the record ETF outflows as a lagging sign of the same capitulation instead of a fresh catastrophe. Institutions derisked into weakness, leverage was cleared, and sentiment collapsed into extreme fear. If that selling has already happened, the market may be closer to a base than the headline fear suggests. The reset positioning and the accumulation on-chain suggest a foundation is forming under the panic.

If that is right, the setup favors a recovery once a catalyst arrives to flip sentiment, and the extreme fear reading becomes, in hindsight, the marker of the low. This is the contrarian thesis, and the data gives it real support. The key caveat is timing: a market can be in a bottoming zone before the actual bottom is printed. Bulls still need confirmation before calling the turn.

The bear read: fear can deepen The opposing case is equally grounded, and it starts with the fact that Bitcoin is down about 53% from its high with back-to-back quarterly losses, a genuine bear market instead of a shallow dip. Deep drawdowns can extend, and washed-out sentiment can get more washed out. The macro backdrop offers no relief: the Fed is hawkish under its current chair, markets are pricing a strong chance of a December rate hike as inflation drifts back toward 4%, and a key jobs report looms, all of which pressure risk assets like Bitcoin, which trades as high-beta risk far more than as a haven.

There is also a timing argument. One cycle model notes that bear-market corrections have averaged about 12 months, which, measured from the October 2025 record, points to a bottom only around mid-October 2026. By that reading, the current fear could be a stop along the way instead of the destination, with more downside and more time required before a durable low. The record ETF outflows, in this frame, are an active headwind, not a capitulation tail.

Fear is a signal, not a floor, and it can persist far longer than the impatient expect. The chart can stay oversold, ETF flows can stay negative, and macro can keep forcing risk assets lower. That does not invalidate the bottoming signals; it simply means they are conditions, not confirmations. The bear case is strongest as long as price remains below the key moving averages and the ETF bid stays absent.

What would confirm a turn The way to cut through the debate is to watch for confirmation instead of guessing at the bottom. Four signals would mark a genuine turn. The first is price reclaiming the 20-day EMA near $62,450 and then the heavier resistance around $64,000, which would break the pattern of lower highs and put buyers back in control. The second is ETF flows flipping from outflows back to sustained inflows, the clearest sign the institutional bid has returned.

The third is open interest rebuilding alongside a rising price, which would show fresh capital coming in with conviction instead of a low-volume drift. The fourth is the Fear and Greed Index lifting off its extremes, confirming that the emotional backdrop is normalizing. Until several of those align, the constructive signals remain a setup instead of a trigger. Extreme fear, reset leverage, and accumulation describe a market that could turn, not one that has.

The discipline is to treat washed-out sentiment as a reason to watch closely, while waiting for price and flows to confirm before concluding the low is in. That is how experienced traders use a reading in extreme fear: not as a buy button, but as a cue to track the signals that actually mark the turn. The lower the fear gauge falls, the more important confirmation becomes, because the emotional temptation to act early grows stronger.

How this fear compares with past bottoms Extreme fear is not new, and prior episodes offer a rough guide to how it tends to resolve, with a large caveat. In earlier cycles, the deepest fear readings have often clustered near major lows, appearing when a drawdown was closer to its end than its beginning, precisely because fear peaks when selling has run far. The pattern that has marked durable bottoms combines washed-out sentiment with flushed leverage and steady accumulation by long-term holders, the same three ingredients visible now. On that template, the current setup rhymes with past bottoming conditions.

The caveat is that the template has failed often enough to demand humility. Extreme fear has also appeared in the middle of downtrends, not just at their ends, and readers who bought every low reading in a bear market bought too early more than once. The difference between a fear reading that marks a bottom and one that marks a pause is usually not visible in the sentiment gauge itself. It shows up later, in whether price reclaims key levels and whether the institutional bid returns.

There is also a structural change that makes the comparison imperfect. The presence of spot ETFs has altered how Bitcoin trades, adding a large, flow-driven institutional participant that did not exist in earlier cycles. That means past bottoming patterns, built in a market without ETFs, may not map cleanly onto this one. The ETF flows can amplify moves in both directions, which is why the record June outflows matter so much and why this cycle’s bottom may look different from the ones the historical template describes.

The macro calendar that matters Because Bitcoin is trading as a high-beta risk asset, the signals most likely to flip or deepen sentiment are macroeconomic, and the calendar is crowded. The nearest is the monthly jobs report, a read on labor-market strength that feeds directly into rate expectations: a hot number would reinforce the case for the Fed staying tight, pressuring risk assets, while a soft number could revive hopes for easier policy and lift them. Traders watching for a sentiment turn are watching that print closely. It is not a crypto-native signal, but it can decide whether crypto-native bottoming signals actually matter.

Further out sits the Fed itself. With markets pricing a meaningful chance of a December rate hike as inflation drifts back toward 4%, each inflation report and each Fed meeting becomes a potential catalyst. A hawkish surprise would deepen the risk-off mood that has weighed on Bitcoin, while any sign the tightening is ending could mark the macro turn that a sentiment-driven bottom needs. The path of rates, more than any crypto-native signal, is the backdrop against which the fear gauge will either normalize or sink further.

The practical point is that a durable turn in Bitcoin sentiment probably requires a shift in the macro wind, not just an oversold chart. The internal signals, reset leverage, accumulation, extreme fear, describe a market primed to respond, but the trigger is likely to come from outside crypto: a softer labor market, a friendlier inflation path, or a Fed that signals the end of tightening. Until the macro calendar delivers one of those, the constructive crypto signals remain a coiled setup waiting for a catalyst, which is why traders track the economic data as closely as the order book right now.

The one signal that matters most With so many gauges flashing at once, it helps to rank them, and in this cycle one signal outranks the rest: the ETF bid. Before spot Bitcoin funds existed, a bottom was mostly a story about on-chain holders, leverage, and sentiment, the classic signals. Those still matter, but the arrival of ETFs added a large, flow-driven institutional participant whose buying and selling now sets much of the marginal price. When that participant is buying, it provides a steady floor. When it is selling, as it was through the record June outflows, it becomes a persistent drag that the other signals cannot easily overcome.

That is why the ETF flow number deserves more weight than the fear gauge or the RSI. Extreme fear can mark a bottom, reset leverage can prime one, and accumulation can build a base, but none of them forces the institutional bid to return. The flows do that directly. A market can sit at extreme fear with clean positioning and still grind lower if the funds keep redeeming, because the redemptions are real selling that has to be absorbed.

Conversely, a decisive flip back to sustained inflows would validate every other constructive signal at once, confirming that the capitulation the other gauges describe has actually ended. The practical takeaway is a hierarchy. Treat the ETF flows as the primary confirmation, the signal that most reliably separates a real turn from a false one. Treat reset leverage and on-chain accumulation as supporting evidence that the setup is favorable. Treat extreme fear and oversold technicals as context that raises the odds without confirming anything.

The macro calendar is the likely trigger that moves the flows one way or the other. Reading the signals in that order, flows first, positioning second, sentiment last, is how to avoid the classic trap of buying extreme fear too early. The gauge in extreme fear tells you the market is primed. The ETF flows will tell you when it has actually turned.

Frequently asked questions What does a Fear and Greed reading near 16 mean? It means the index sits deep in extreme fear, its lowest zone, reflecting washed-out sentiment across volatility, momentum, volume, and social signals. Historically, readings this low have appeared near local bottoms because much of the selling may be exhausted. But it is a description of the present, not a prediction, and extreme fear can persist or deepen during a real downtrend.

Is extreme fear a reliable buy signal? Not on its own. Low readings raise the odds that a bottom is near, but sentiment can stay fearful for weeks while price keeps falling. It is best used as context alongside harder data on positioning, flows, and price, instead of as a standalone trigger. Treating a low reading as an automatic buy has repeatedly caught traders too early.

Why does falling open interest matter? Open interest dropping from over $90 billion to about $44.5 billion means leverage has been flushed out through liquidations and derisking. That makes the market sturdier, because the forced-selling fuel that drives cascading drops is gone, which often precedes bottoms. The caveat is that falling open interest can also signal fading demand, so it is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a turn.

What are exchange outflows telling us? More Bitcoin has been leaving exchanges than arriving, a pattern typically read as accumulation, with holders moving coins into storage instead of keeping them ready to sell. It suggests conviction underneath the fear. But exchange flows are noisy and can reflect custody or institutional shifts, so they are a soft signal that some holders are unbothered, not proof the bottom is in.

Why are the ETF outflows so important? Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a record $4.5 billion of outflows in June 2026, turning the steady institutional bid that once cushioned drops into a headwind. Because that bid was a structural support, its reversal is the signal that most needs to flip for a convincing turn. A return to sustained inflows would validate the bullish case, while continued outflows keep pressure on regardless of sentiment.

Where is Bitcoin’s key support and resistance? Support sits near the $58,000 area, and reclaiming the 20-day EMA around $62,450 is the first upside test, followed by heavier resistance near $64,000 and the longer-term moving averages around $65,200 to $65,600. RSI near 30 shows oversold momentum. A break below support opens the door toward the mid-$50,000s, while reclaiming the moving averages would signal the downtrend is weakening.

Could Bitcoin fall further from here? Yes. Bitcoin is down about 53% from its record with back-to-back quarterly losses, and deep drawdowns can extend. A hawkish Fed, a likely December rate hike, and looming jobs data pressure risk assets, and one cycle model points to a bottom only around mid-October 2026. Extreme fear is a signal, not a floor, and it can persist longer than expected.

What would confirm that Bitcoin has turned? Four signals: price reclaiming the 20-day EMA near $62,450 and then resistance around $64,000, ETF flows flipping back to sustained inflows, open interest rebuilding alongside a rising price, and the Fear and Greed Index lifting off its extremes. Until several align, the constructive signals describe a market that could turn instead of one that has, so confirmation should come before conviction.

Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and technical and sentiment analysis is speculative and may not predict actual movements. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Figures are accurate as of July 1, 2026, and will change.

Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.

Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.

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