Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

For those looking to find strong Oils-Energy stocks, it is prudent to search for companies in the group that are outperforming their peers. ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC - Free Report) is a stock that can certainly grab the attention of many investors, but do its recent returns compare favorably to the sector as a whole? A quick glance at the company's year-to-date performance in comparison to the rest of the Oils-Energy sector should help us answer this question.

ProFrac Holding Corp. is one of 240 companies in the Oils-Energy group. The Oils-Energy group currently sits at #1 within the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sector Rank includes 16 different groups and is listed in order from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors.

The Zacks Rank is a proven model that highlights a variety of stocks with the right characteristics to outperform the market over the next one to three months. The system emphasizes earnings estimate revisions and favors companies with improving earnings outlooks. ProFrac Holding Corp. is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).

Within the past quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ACDC's full-year earnings has moved 6.3% higher. This is a sign of improving analyst sentiment and a positive earnings outlook trend.

According to our latest data, ACDC has moved about 50.4% on a year-to-date basis. Meanwhile, stocks in the Oils-Energy group have gained about 26.3% on average. This means that ProFrac Holding Corp. is performing better than its sector in terms of year-to-date returns.

Another stock in the Oils-Energy sector, California Resources Corporation (CRC - Free Report) , has outperformed the sector so far this year. The stock's year-to-date return is 42.5%.

The consensus estimate for California Resources Corporation's current year EPS has increased 90.8% over the past three months. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Looking more specifically, ProFrac Holding Corp. belongs to the Oil and Gas - Field Services industry, a group that includes 19 individual stocks and currently sits at #35 in the Zacks Industry Rank. This group has gained an average of 37.8% so far this year, so ACDC is performing better in this area.

In contrast, California Resources Corporation falls under the Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry. Currently, this industry has 35 stocks and is ranked #22. Since the beginning of the year, the industry has moved +24.4%.

Going forward, investors interested in Oils-Energy stocks should continue to pay close attention to ProFrac Holding Corp. and California Resources Corporation as they could maintain their solid performance.

Momentum investing is essentially an exception to the idea of "buying low and selling high." Investors following this style of investing are usually not interested in betting on cheap stocks and waiting long for them to recover. Instead, they believe that "buying high and selling higher" is the way to make far more money in lesser time.

Who doesn't like betting on fast-moving trending stocks? But determining the right entry point isn't easy. Often, these stocks lose momentum once their valuation moves ahead of their future growth potential. In such a situation, investors find themselves loaded up on expensive shares with limited to no upside or even a downside. So, going all-in on momentum could be risky at times.

It could be safer to invest in bargain stocks that have been witnessing price momentum recently. While the Zacks Momentum Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to trends in a stock's price or earnings, is pretty useful in identifying great momentum stocks, our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen comes handy in spotting fast-moving stocks that are still attractively priced.

ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC - Free Report) is one of the several great candidates that made it through the screen. While there are numerous reasons why this stock is a great choice, here are the most vital ones:

Investors' growing interest in a stock is reflected in its recent price increase. A price change of 9.5% over the past four weeks positions the stock of this company well in this regard.

While any stock can see a spike in price for a short period, it takes a real momentum player to deliver positive returns for a longer time frame. ACDC meets this criterion too, as the stock gained 46.7% over the past 12 weeks.

Moreover, the momentum for ACDC is fast paced, as the stock currently has a beta of 1.44. This indicates that the stock moves 44% higher than the market in either direction.

Given this price performance, it is no surprise that ACDC has a Momentum Score of B, which indicates that this is the right time to enter the stock to take advantage of the momentum with the highest probability of success.

In addition to a favorable Momentum Score, an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has helped ACDC earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Our research shows that the momentum-effect is quite strong among Zacks Rank #1 and #2 stocks. That's because as covering analysts raise their earnings estimates for a stock, more and more investors take an interest in it, helping its price race to keep up. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

Most importantly, despite possessing fast-paced momentum features, ACDC is trading at a reasonable valuation. In terms of Price-to-Sales ratio, which is considered as one of the best valuation metrics, the stock looks quite cheap now. ACDC is currently trading at 0.68 times its sales. In other words, investors need to pay only 68 cents for each dollar of sales.

So, ACDC appears to have plenty of room to run, and that too at a fast pace.

In addition to ACDC, there are several other stocks that currently pass through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen. You may consider investing in them and start looking for the newest stocks that fit these criteria.

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Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.39 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -254.6%.

Revenues are expected to be $390.43 million, down 35% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.8% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for ProFrac Holding Corp.?For ProFrac Holding Corp., the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +5.98%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2.

So, this combination indicates that ProFrac Holding Corp. will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that ProFrac Holding Corp. would post a loss of$0.44 per share when it actually produced a loss of -$0.51, delivering a surprise of -15.91%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

ProFrac Holding Corp. appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerArchrock Inc. (AROC - Free Report) , another stock in the Zacks Oil and Gas - Field Services industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $0.45 for the quarter ended March 2026. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of +7.1%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $376.69 million, up 8.5% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for Archrock Inc. has been revised 5.5% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a lower Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -2.22%.

This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Archrock Inc. will beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

WILLOW PARK, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ProFrac Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: ACDC) (“ProFrac”, or the “Company”) today announced financial and operational results for its 2026 first quarter ended March 31, 2026. First Quarter 2026 Results Total revenue was $450 million compared to fourth quarter revenue of $437 million Net loss was $81 million compared to net loss of $141 million in the fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA¹ was $54 million compared to $61 million in the fourth quarter; 12% of revenue in the f.

ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC - Free Report) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.47 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.37. This compares to a loss of $0.11 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -28.17%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.44 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.51, delivering a surprise of -15.91%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has not been able to surpass consensus EPS estimates.

ProFrac Holding Corp., which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Field Services industry, posted revenues of $449.6 million for the quarter ended March 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.15%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $600.3 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

ProFrac Holding Corp. shares have added about 69.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 7.2%.

What's Next for ProFrac Holding Corp.?While ProFrac Holding Corp. has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for ProFrac Holding Corp. was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.32 on $424.12 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$1.20 on $1.68 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Oil and Gas - Field Services is currently in the bottom 20% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

One other stock from the same industry, KLX Energy Services (KLXE - Free Report) , is yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2026. The results are expected to be released on May 12.

This service provider to oil and natural gas producers is expected to post quarterly loss of $1.27 per share in its upcoming report, which represents no change from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.3% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.

KLX Energy Services' revenues are expected to be $146.5 million, down 4.9% from the year-ago quarter.

After more than a decade of disciplined budgeting and limited capital expenditure, oil and gas companies are opening their wallets again. The commodity supercycle of the mid-2000s left the industry overextended, with bloated deepwater projects, uneconomic oil sands expansions, and Arctic ventures that never panned out. When crude collapsed in 2014, the resulting hangover ushered in a structural shift toward capital restraint, shareholder returns, and ESG-driven caution that persisted for the better part of a decade.

That era appears to be ending. With oil prices hovering near $100 and no near-term catalyst for a meaningful pullback, producers are doing something they haven't done in years, investing aggressively in new production. And the biggest beneficiaries aren't the producers themselves, but the companies that supply the rigs, the frac crews, and the subsea equipment that make drilling possible.

Among this group, Valaris ((VAL - Free Report) ), ProFrac Holding Corp. ((ACDC - Free Report) ) andHelix Energy Solutions Group ((HLX - Free Report) ) stand out for strong momentum, earnings upgrades and considerable industry tailwinds.

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The Capex Cycle Is Turning and Oil Services Stocks LeadThe parallel to the technology sector is hard to ignore. After a brief discipline phase in 2022-2023 marked by layoffs and "year of efficiency" mantras, Big Tech found its permission slip in artificial intelligence and began spending at record levels. The Mag 7 are collectively guiding for over $680 billion in capex for 2026, up from roughly $400 billion in 2025, funding data centers, GPU clusters and AI infrastructure at a pace that would have been unthinkable two years ago.

To put that in perspective, total global oil and gas capital expenditure across all segments, upstream, midstream, and downstream is estimated at roughly $680 billion in 2026. Seven technology companies are now spending as much on AI infrastructure as the entire global energy industry spends to find, produce, transport, and refine the commodity that powers the physical economy. But we could see that already sizable energy capex rise, which would have a significant ripple effect on adjacent industries.

Oil and gas is getting its own version of a permission slip, not from a technological paradigm shift, but from geopolitics and supply scarcity. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026 and the subsequent regional escalation involving Gulf states has effectively removed roughly 20 million barrels per day of transit capacity from global markets. WTI crude surged from the mid-$50s at the start of the year to well above $100, and the disruption shows no signs of resolving quickly.

The response from producers has been swift. Diamondback Energy, the third-largest Permian operator, abandoned its capital discipline framework and began adding rigs and frac crews. ConocoPhillips raised capex guidance. Continental Resources reversed a planned 20% spending cut and instead increased caped 15% to 20%. These represent a potential strategic shift in how management teams are thinking about reinvestment.

Why Services and Drilling Stocks are Beating ProducersThe VanEck Oil Services ETF ((OIH - Free Report) ) is up nearly 60% year-to-date, almost doubling the return of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ((XLE - Free Report) ) at around 36%. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ((XOP - Free Report) ) sits in between at approximately 40%. This dispersion tells an important story about where the real leverage sits in a capex upcycle.

XLE is dominated by integrated majors, ExxonMobil and Chevron alone account for over 40% of the portfolio. These companies benefit from higher oil prices, but their earnings are diversified across refining, chemicals, and midstream operations. That diversification dampens their sensitivity to the upstream drilling cycle. XOP captures purer E&P exposure, but producers are price-takers and their fortunes rise and fall with the commodity itself.

Oil services companies operate differently. They get paid when producers drill, and they benefit from pricing power when capacity gets tight. SLB, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes, the core holdings of OIH, are picks-and-shovels plays on the drilling cycle. When every E&P in the Permian is scrambling to add rigs simultaneously, the companies that own those rigs and frac fleets can command premium pricing.

The Zacks Rank data confirms this dynamic from the bottom up. Scanning the Oils-Energy sector, the strongest momentum and earnings revision trends are concentrated in services and drilling names, such as Patterson-UTI, Valaris, Nabors, ProFrac, KLX Energy, and Helix Energy Solutions are all clustered near the top of the momentum rankings. The E&P companies sit in the middle tier, while the integrated majors, the names that dominate XLE, are near the bottom.

This isn't coincidental. It's the anatomy of a capex upcycle: the picks-and-shovels names lead on earnings revisions, the producers follow, and the diversified giants lag because their other business segments dilute the upstream signal.

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The Capacity Bottleneck Is RealWhat makes this cycle particularly compelling for services investors is the degree to which a decade of underinvestment has constrained supply-side capacity. Halliburton's CEO noted on the Q1 earnings call that "white space" in the frac calendar is "all but gone" for Q2, with an uptick in inbound calls for spot work. Transocean booked $1.6 billion in new contracts at roughly $410,000 average day rates, the highest in over a decade.

This is the natural consequence of years of capital starvation. Rig counts were slashed, fleets were cold-stacked, and equipment was decommissioned. Rebuilding that capacity takes time and capital, which means the companies that maintained their fleets through the downturn are now in a position to dictate terms.

The offshore market is telling a similar story. Deepwater commitments in Brazil's Santos Basin, Guyana's Stabroek block, and West Africa are not short-cycle spending decisions that can be reversed if oil pulls back. These are multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects with production timelines stretching decades. SLB's Production Systems segment grew 23% year-over-year in Q1, reflecting the durability of these long-cycle commitments.

ProFrac Holding Corp Shares Push New HighsProFrac is a pure-play completions company focused on hydraulic fracturing, proppant production, and related oilfield services. If there is a single company that captures the domestic land-based capex acceleration story, it's ACDC.

When US producers decide to drill more wells, they need frac crews to complete them, and ProFrac controls meaningful capacity in that market. The company has been through a difficult stretch with Q1 2026 revenue of $450 million was down meaningfully from the prior year, and the company posted a net loss of $83.5 million. But the quarter was marred by approximately $9 million in weather-related EBITDA headwinds, and importantly, the trajectory shifted meaningfully in late February as operator sentiment improved and activity levels accelerated.

CEO Ladd Wilkes made a point on the earnings call that should catch investors' attention, noting that current pricing remains at roughly 60% of where it was in 2022, indicating substantial room for price improvement as demand catches up to capacity. The company's frac calendar has continued to tighten from Q1 levels, with significant spot work converting to dedicated programs, particularly among private operators.

Despite the mixed results, the stock is up roughly 63% year-to-date and pushing new YTD highs today, reflecting the market's anticipation of the capex inflection and strong price momentum. But if pricing power continues to build as frac capacity tightens further, there is still meaningful earnings revision upside ahead. In the last 60 days, current year estimates are up 10% and next year 33%, giving the stock a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating.

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Valaris Stock Breaks OutValaris is one of the world's largest offshore contract drillers, operating a fleet of drillships, semisubmersibles, and modern jackups across deepwater and international markets. The company represents the long-cycle, offshore side of the capex thesis, a fundamentally different dynamic than the short-cycle shale plays that dominate domestic services.

The story here begins with the post-bankruptcy transformation. Valaris emerged from Chapter 11 in 2021 with a clean balance sheet, and the current offshore upcycle has placed the company squarely in the path of rising demand. Day rates have surged to decade-plus highs as deepwater operators in Brazil, Guyana, and West Africa commit to multi-year drilling programs that cannot be easily unwound.

Q1 2026 results showed revenue of $465 million, a top-line beat versus consensus expectations of $446 million, though revenue was down 25% year-over-year due to fewer operating days and the sale of several units. The EPS miss (-$0.24 versus expectations of -$0.12) reflected merger-related integration costs and elevated war-risk insurance expenses tied to the Middle East conflict. Revenue efficiency remained strong at 98%, indicating that when rigs are working, they're performing reliably. The company ended Q1 with $578 million in cash and a contract backlog of $4.9 billion.

The transformative catalyst for Valaris is the pending all-stock merger with Transocean, announced in February 2026. The combined entity will operate a fleet of 73 rigs, including 33 ultra-deepwater drillships, nine semisubmersibles, and 31 modern jackups, with a pro forma enterprise value of approximately $17 billion and a combined backlog approaching $11 billion, making the combined group the world's largest offshore drilling contractor by fleet size.

For investors, the Transocean combination creates a dominant offshore drilling platform positioned for a multi-year deepwater capex cycle. The combined fleet will have unmatched reach across the world's most attractive offshore basins, and the scale advantages should improve cash flow and accelerate deleveraging.

Earnings estimates have risen across the board, with current quarter forecasts jumping 37% in the last month and next quarter by 22% in the same period, giving it a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating. The stock also just broke out from a bullish consolidation, making it a worthy candidate for buying shares on a pullback.

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Helix Energy Solutions Group Approaches Breakout LevelHelix Energy Solutions occupies a unique niche in the offshore services value chain. While companies like Valaris drill the wells, Helix handles what comes after — well intervention, subsea robotics, and decommissioning services. It's the maintenance and lifecycle management side of offshore energy, which provides a more durable revenue stream than pure drilling activity.

The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $288 million, beating consensus estimates by a meaningful margin ($24 million above expectations). The quarter reflected expected seasonality, winter weather impacts the North Sea and Gulf of America shelf operations, and included costs from the successful workover of the company's Thunder Hawk field. Despite a net loss of $13 million, Helix generated $59 million in free cash flow and ended the quarter with $501 million in cash and $612 million in total liquidity against just $310 million in funded debt. That's a notably strong balance sheet for a company of this size.

Full-year 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $1.2-$1.4 billion and EBITDA of $230-$290 million, with the second and third quarters expected to be the most active. CEO Owen Kratz noted that recent commodity price increases have generated improved demand for the company's services, and government actions in the North Sea have provided a regulatory catalyst for decommissioning activity.

The strategic catalyst for Helix is the recently announced all-stock merger with Hornbeck Offshore Services, expected to close in the second half of 2026. The combination creates what both companies describe as a "premier integrated offshore services company," merging Helix's well intervention assets and subsea robotics with Hornbeck's high-specification offshore support vessel fleet. The combined entity will operate under the Hornbeck Offshore Services name (ticker: HOS) and is expected to generate $75 million or more in annual revenue and cost synergies within three years. Hornbeck shareholders will own approximately 55% of the combined company, with Helix shareholders holding 45%.

What makes Helix particularly interesting in the current environment is the diversification of its end markets. Beyond traditional oil and gas, the combined company will serve defense, renewables, and scientific research applications, providing some insulation from crude price volatility that pure drillers don't have.

Helix group has seen earnings estimates rise across timeframes, earning it a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating, while the stock simultaneously approaches a major breakout level.

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What Could Derail the ThesisThe bull case for oil services rests on the durability of the capex cycle. If crude prices remain elevated and producers continue to invest, services companies will continue to see strong demand and improving pricing power. But this thesis is not without risk.

The most obvious risk is a resolution to the Hormuz crisis. A ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough that reopens the Strait could take $20-30 off crude relatively quickly. The memory of $57 oil at the start of the year is fresh, and the Dallas Fed's latest energy survey showed plenty of E&P executives still skeptical that current prices will hold long enough to justify major investment commitments. If crude falls sharply, the capex acceleration could stall as quickly as it started, and services companies would give back their outperformance faster than XLE, given the same operating leverage that drove them higher.

The counterpoint is that a resolution doesn't necessarily mean immediate normalization. Oil analysts have estimated that for every day the Strait is closed, it takes roughly a week for the market to normalize when accounting for tanker fleet dislocations, port backlogs, insurance repricing, and the restart of shut-in production. The Strait has been effectively closed for 78 days, which points to approximately 78 weeks of normalization, stretching into November 2027. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser reinforced this on his Q1 earnings call, warning that even if Hormuz opened today, it would take months to rebalance, and if the reopening is delayed further, normalization extends well into 2027.

There's also a historical precedent worth noting: OIH's 10-year return is actually negative. The oil services sector has been one of the most brutal areas of the market over the past decade, and investors who overstayed their welcome in the 2014 cycle paid dearly for it. This is a sector where timing and discipline matter enormously.

That said, the structural underinvestment argument supports elevated prices even without the geopolitical premium. The world has not built enough production capacity to meet demand growth, and the capex required to close that gap flows directly through the services companies that sit at the center of this article.

It's also worth noting that two of the three companies profiled above. These aren't defensive consolidation plays to survive a downturn. These are deals structured around the belief that the demand environment has legs and that deepwater programs, well intervention backlogs, and offshore activity levels justify building larger, more capable platforms to capture multi-year revenue streams. When management teams and boards are betting their corporate structure on a cycle, that tells you something about their confidence in its durability.

For now, the earnings revision cycle is pointing clearly in one direction, and the Zacks Rank data is confirming it across the services and drilling complex. The tech sector found its reason to spend. Oil and gas may have found its own.

The packaged-food company reports better-than-expected quarterly earnings but mixed guidance for fiscal 2027.

SJM Surges 9%, But Hostess Weakness Clouds OutlookJ. M. Smucker NYSE: SJM executives said the company is entering fiscal 2027 with momentum across key brands, while cautioning that commodity costs, tariffs and consumer behavior remain important variables in its outlook.

During the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings question-and-answer session, Chief Executive Officer Mark Smucker said the company had “a great quarter and a solid outlook” for the new fiscal year. He pointed to what he described as a complementary portfolio spanning coffee, frozen handhelds and spreads, pet foods and sweet baked snacks.

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5 Under-the-Radar Consumer Staples Stocks With Pricing PowerChief Financial Officer Tucker Marshall said the company’s full-year outlook includes mid-single-digit percentage deflation, driven largely by green coffee. Excluding green coffee and tariffs, Smucker expects low-single-digit cost inflation across the rest of its portfolio, primarily in packaging, ingredients and transportation.

Marshall said the outlook reflects the company’s current best estimate, while noting that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could affect cost assumptions depending on their duration. He said Smucker expects to manage additional inflation through procurement, hedging, productivity savings and pricing “when and where appropriate.”

Coffee Deflation Expected to Support Profit Recovery The 4 Dividend Stocks Smart Money Is Grabbing Right NowCoffee was a major focus of the call, as executives discussed the expected impact of lower green coffee costs. Smucker said the coffee category remains attractive and that the company continues to lead across segments and the value spectrum. He highlighted Café Bustelo as “a very significant growth brand” with more than $500 million in sales.

Smucker said the company expects profit improvement in coffee as the commodity environment moderates. However, he said the company is being prudent in forecasting volume response to lower prices because consumers remain cautious.

“Coffee is a pass-through category,” Smucker said, adding that the company passes costs through to customers and consumers “up and down” in a measured way. He said the company is currently focused more on trade spending, and that list price reductions would depend on when Smucker takes physical inventory of lower-cost coffee.

Marshall said the company expects its first quarter to be roughly flat from a net sales perspective, with green coffee deflation beginning to affect results more meaningfully in the second quarter and beyond. He also confirmed that the expected improvement in retail coffee margins into the high-20% range is largely a second-through-fourth-quarter event.

Uncrustables Remains a Growth Driver Executives said the Uncrustables brand remains one of Smucker’s strongest growth platforms. Mark Smucker said the brand has reached $1 billion in sales and continues to benefit from its position in the frozen category, new formats, new occasions and innovation such as higher-protein morning offerings and “fridge-friendly” products.

Smucker said Uncrustables is not expected to continue growing at a double-digit rate, but the company still sees runway through distribution, household penetration, innovation and brand-building investments.

Marshall said Smucker expects mid-single-digit growth for Uncrustables in fiscal 2027, driven by volume and mix momentum and partially offset by strategic investments. He said roughly 75% of Uncrustables sales go through traditional U.S. retail, with the remaining 25% through away-from-home channels, where growth is expected to be slightly faster due to the smaller base and additional opportunities.

On the brand’s fridge-friendly format, Smucker said customer and consumer reception has been strong. He said all Uncrustables sandwiches are being transitioned to the fridge-friendly format, with the full portfolio expected to be converted around mid-summer.

Spreads, Pet and Sweet Baked Snacks Face Mixed Trends Smucker said the company is seeing some pressure in spreads, but framed the frozen handheld and spreads segment as a broader “peanut butter and jelly story.” He said the company chose not to repeat some prior promotional activity and is not seeing unusual competitive behavior in the category.

In peanut butter, Smucker said recent softness was partly tied to weather events and stock-up activity, rather than structural category weakness. He said the company remains well positioned with leadership in stabilized peanut butter and several leading natural and organic peanut butter brands. He also cited the launch of Jif Simply, a limited-ingredient stabilized peanut butter product.

In pet, Marshall said the company continues to see volume momentum across Meow Mix and Milk-Bone, but segment profit is expected to be pressured by inflation and marketing investments.

For Sweet Baked Snacks, executives said the focus remains on stabilizing the Hostess business and improving profitability. Smucker said the company has strengthened the portfolio through SKU rationalization and noted that donuts grew 13% and now represent about 40% of the portfolio. He said the breakfast occasion for Hostess continues to perform well.

Smucker also said the company completed its manufacturing footprint consolidation and recovered more quickly than expected from a fire in the prior quarter. He said it will take time for the business to return to top-line growth.

Marshall said Sweet Baked Snacks segment profit is expected to rise about 30% year over year, helped by cost control, trade execution and a list price increase across parts of the donuts portfolio.

Marketing, Tariffs and Cost Savings Marshall said Smucker remains committed to supporting its brands through marketing, with spending expected to be about 5.7% of net sales in the upcoming fiscal year. He said that represents an increase of about $30 million year over year and nearly $500 million in total spending, with investments expected to be fairly balanced throughout the year.

On tariffs, Marshall said Smucker experienced tariffs in fiscal 2026 and is assuming a 10% tariff level in its fiscal 2027 outlook. He said the company is pursuing refunds for previously paid tariffs, but the scope and timing remain uncertain, so no benefit has been included in guidance.

Marshall also discussed the company’s transformation office, saying Smucker targets gross cost savings equal to a couple points of revenue each fiscal year. He said future efforts will focus on supply chain areas he described as “buy, make, and move,” as well as the use of technology to improve the company’s cost structure.

Debt Reduction Remains a Priority Marshall said Smucker generated $1.2 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2026, allowing the company to repay more than $700 million of debt and pay just over $450 million in dividends. For fiscal 2027, he said the company remains committed to generating at least $1 billion in free cash flow, with capital expenditures expected to be roughly flat at $325 million.

The company plans to pay down an additional $500 million of debt, which Marshall said would support reducing leverage to around 3 times by the end of the fiscal year, down from about 3.8 times at the end of fiscal 2026.

Marshall said that as Smucker approaches its leverage objectives, it could consider additional cash deployment options, including potential share repurchases. However, he noted that the company’s current guidance does not include share repurchases.

In closing remarks, Mark Smucker said the company’s priorities are driving focused organic volume growth, improving profitability and earnings growth, and maintaining discipline in capital deployment.

About J. M. Smucker NYSE: SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company is a diversified food and beverage manufacturer and marketer known for a portfolio of well-established consumer brands. The company's main business activities include the production and distribution of fruit spreads, peanut butter, coffee and coffee filters, as well as pet food and pet snacks. Smucker's core product lines serve both retail and foodservice customers through grocery chains, mass merchandisers, club stores, convenience outlets and e-commerce channels.

Among its leading brands are Smucker's® fruit spreads, Jif® peanut butter, Folgers® and Dunkin'® coffees, and Café Bustelo® coffee.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

Should You Invest $1,000 in J. M. Smucker Right Now?Before you consider J. M. Smucker, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and J. M. Smucker wasn't on the list.

While J. M. Smucker currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.

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Smucker (SJM - Free Report) reported $2.27 billion in revenue for the quarter ended April 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.8%. EPS of $2.77 for the same period compares to $2.31 a year ago.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of -0.12% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.27 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $2.65, the EPS surprise was +4.6%.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.

Here is how Smucker performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

Net Sales- Sweet Baked Snacks: $237.2 million compared to the $220.34 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of -5.5% year over year.Net Sales- U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads: $454.1 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $462.06 million.Net Sales- U.S. Retail Pet Foods: $401.7 million versus $394.41 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +1.6% change.Net Sales- International and Away From Home: $344.5 million versus $344.46 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +11.5% change.Net Sales- U.S. Retail Coffee: $830.6 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $848.73 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +12.5%.Segment Profit- Sweet Baked Snacks: $29 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $30.11 million.Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads: $124.7 million versus $99.03 million estimated by three analysts on average.Corporate administrative expenses: $-87.1 million compared to the $-78.67 million average estimate based on three analysts.Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Pet Foods: $125.7 million versus $115.04 million estimated by three analysts on average.Segment Profit- International and Away From Home: $75.8 million compared to the $77.92 million average estimate based on three analysts.Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Coffee: $214 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $211.29 million.View all Key Company Metrics for Smucker here>>>

Shares of Smucker have returned +2.6% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.2% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), indicating that it could underperform the broader market in the near term.

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

J. M. Smucker (SJM) shares have surged following the release of its Q4 (April) earnings report. The company exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations, wit

J. M. Smucker Today

SJM

J. M. Smucker

$115.66 -1.17 (-1.00%)

As of 12:05 PM Eastern

This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.

52-Week Range$88.25▼

$119.39Dividend Yield3.80%

Price Target$121.13

The J.M. Smucker Company NYSE: SJM may not pay the highest-yielding dividend among S&P 500 companies, but it still offers a sweet payout and is on track for annual increases alongside share price appreciation. The net result will be a double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the subsequent few years, a tidy return for buy-and-hold investors.

While business is expected to contract in fiscal year 2027 (FY2027), worse than analysts expected, the company is in the midst of a transition that will lead to sustainable growth and wider margins. As it stands, earnings are expected to grow in FY2027, good news for the dividend and dividend investors.

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Smucker’s Business Transition Gains TractionSmuckers is undergoing a transformation focused on business rationalization, improved efficiency, and reinvigorated growth. Activist investor Elliott Management is assisting with guidance, information, and strategy planning.

The critical factor is the company's product portfolio, which is a hodgepodge of disparate categories, although most produced growth in fiscal Q4 2026 and strong, double-digit margins.

The primary culprits of underperformance are the Hostess brand and the Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which are contracting and dragging down overall growth. Margins have improved, but remain the weakest among the major segments. While no plans have been announced, investors should not be surprised to hear news that the company will divest the brand. Elliott Management is well-known for board shakeups, debt reduction, and divesting underperforming assets; so far, J.M. Smucker Co. has added two new board seats and is focusing on debt; a divestiture is a likely next move on Elliott’s agenda.

Smucker’s Reduces Debt: Improves Dividend ReliabilitySmucker’s is not out of the weeds, but it is making progress on its transition. The recent earnings results included significant balance sheet improvements, with highlights reflecting the impact of previous divestitures, improving cash flow, and debt reduction. Cash was flat compared to the prior year. Debt fell about 10%, and is expected to continue falling as cash flow improvements persist.

The dividend is reliable, at approximately 45% of the FY2027 earnings forecast, and offers a high yield near 4%. In the future, the company is likely to keep increasing the payout by mid-single digits, as it has over the trailing 5-year period, but there is an opportunity for accelerated growth. Improving operational quality and reinvigorated top-line growth are a recipe for accelerated distribution growth and buybacks. Buybacks are not a significant part of the thesis today, but they offset dilution and keep the share count steady, which is good enough for now.

SJM Stock Accumulated by Analysts and Institutions in 2026Analyst and institutional trends highlight the value and yield opportunity presented by SJM’s 2026 share price pullback. MarketBeat tracks 21 analysts rating the stock as a Hold with a 52% Buy-side bias. The group sees SJM as fairly valued in mid-June 2026, which aligns with two exponential moving averages (EMAs). Assuming the market sustains support at this level, the indication is that short- and medium-term traders will enter the mix, driving a bullish outlook for the stock.

Institutions, which collectively own more than 80% of the stock, are accumulating it. MarketBeat data reveal this group has been buying on balance for more than 12 consecutive quarters, at a pace of $1.6 to $1 on a trailing 12-month basis, and the trend continues into early Q2 2026. The likely outcome is that institutions will limit downside in the event of price corrections and underpin any rallies as they form.

Looking ahead, institutions may begin distributing shares when SJM reaches the top of its trading range, but that risk is diminished in FY2027. Improving business trends and an outlook for resumed growth suggest SJM’s market will reverse over time, potentially reaching a fresh long-term high in calendar 2027, if not by the end of this year.

The post-release price action looked favorable, with SJM stock rising by more than 10% in trading the day after the release. The MACD and stochastic suggest the rebound has only begun and has ample room to advance. The first target for price resistance is in the $110 to $112.50 range, aligning with a prior high and the long-term EMA. A move above it would signal a complete market reversal.

Should You Invest $1,000 in J. M. Smucker Right Now?Before you consider J. M. Smucker, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and J. M. Smucker wasn't on the list.

While J. M. Smucker currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.

View The Five Stocks Here

MarketBeat just released its list of the 7 hottest IPOs expected to hit Wall Street in 2026. See which companies are preparing to go public and why investors are watching closely.

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Key Takeaways SJM guides fiscal 2027 net sales down 3%-4%, while adjusted EPS rises to $9.75-$10.25.SJM expects mid-single-digit declines in green coffee costs, with the biggest retail profit lift starting Q2.SJM: Uncrustables hit $1B sales; Sweet Baked Snacks profit rose 45% on pricing and lower ad spend. The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM - Free Report) used its fourth-quarter call to make a forward-looking case rather than dwell on headline results. Management pointed to stronger quarterly execution, but the main message was that fiscal 2027 will hinge on coffee cost relief, tighter portfolio management and disciplined capital deployment.

That framing mattered because Smucker is guiding to lower sales, even as adjusted earnings per share rise. Executives spent much of the call explaining why margin improvement, not top-line acceleration, is the clearest near-term objective.

SJM Sets a Margin-Led 2027 AgendaCEO Mark Smucker said the company enters fiscal 2027 with momentum, but he also laid out a narrow set of priorities: organic volume growth on key platforms, better profitability and disciplined capital deployment.

That backdrop helps explain the outlook. Smucker expects fiscal 2027 net sales to decline 3% to 4%, while adjusted earnings per share are projected at $9.75 to $10.25, above fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $9.15.

The company’s fourth quarter supported that message, with net sales up 6% to $2,268.1 million and adjusted EPS up 20% to $2.77. Adjusted EPS topped the $2.65 estimate by 4.5%. However, revenues marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,270.9 million, with a negative surprise of 0.10%.

Smucker Sees Coffee Turning From Drag to SupportCoffee was the clearest source of optimism on the call. Management said green coffee costs should decline at a mid-single-digit rate in fiscal 2027, creating room for profit recovery after a volatile inflationary stretch.

CFO Tucker Marshall said retail coffee profit should improve as moderating commodity costs flow through the business, with the largest benefit starting in the second quarter. Management also expects list price reductions to phase in only after lower-cost inventory reaches the system.

Analysts pressed on whether lower pricing should drive a stronger volume response. Mark Smucker answered with a notably cautious tone, saying the company is assuming prudent elasticities because consumers remain careful even as prices ease.

SJM Keeps Uncrustables at the CenterUncrustables remained the company’s standout growth platform. Management said the brand reached $1 billion in annual sales and should post mid-single-digit growth in fiscal 2027, led primarily by volume and mix.

Executives also highlighted the transition to a fridge-friendly format across the full Uncrustables lineup by mid-summer. Mark Smucker said retailer response has been strong, while Marshall noted that away-from-home channels, now about one-quarter of the business, should grow faster than U.S. retail from a smaller base.

That helps offset weaker trends elsewhere in frozen handheld and spreads. On the call, management acknowledged pressure in spreads and said the total segment will be down year over year as Uncrustables’ strength is weighed against softer peanut butter and fruit spreads.

Hostess Gives SJM a Profit TestSweet Baked Snacks was another focal point because investors remain focused on the Hostess integration and turnaround path. The quarter showed a 5% sales decline for the segment, but profit rose 45% as pricing and lower marketing spend helped margins recover.

Marshall said fiscal 2027 segment profit should grow about 30%, supported by improved costs, SKU rationalization, and selective pricing, especially in donuts. Mark Smucker said the business has been stabilized operationally, though it will take time before top-line growth returns.

That exchange stood out in Q&A because management did not overpromise on demand. Instead, executives emphasized better visibility, cleaner execution in trade and production, and a continued focus on profit before renewed sales expansion.

Smucker Balances Pet Pressure and Cost WorkPet food was a more mixed story. The fourth quarter delivered a 2% sales increase and an 18% profit increase, but management said inflation and higher brand spending will pressure profitability in fiscal 2027 despite volume momentum in Meow Mix and Milk-Bone.

Marshall described low-single-digit inflation outside coffee and tariffs, with pressure coming from packaging, ingredients, and transportation. He added that geopolitical tension in the Middle East remains part of the cost backdrop embedded in guidance.

To offset those costs, the company is leaning on its transformation office. Marshall said Smucker continues to target gross savings worth a couple of points of revenues annually, with current work centered on supply chain efficiency and technology.

SJM Sticks to Debt ReductionCapital allocation was another important call theme. Smucker generated $1.16 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2026 and expects about $1.0 billion in fiscal 2027, while capital spending is projected at $325 million.

Marshall said the first call on that cash remains debt reduction. The company plans another $500 million of paydown this year to move leverage to roughly 3 times by year-end, after finishing fiscal 2026 near 3.8 times.

Management also said tariff refunds are being pursued but were excluded from guidance because the timing and scope remain uncertain. That left the overall tone disciplined and conservative, even as quarterly performance improved.

Smucker Leaves Investors With a Narrow PlaybookBy the end of the call, management had drawn a clear map for fiscal 2027: let coffee margins recover, keep Uncrustables growing, improve Hostess profitability, and preserve balance-sheet flexibility. The emphasis was on control and sequencing rather than broad-based demand strength.

That posture made the call less about a single strong quarter and more about whether Smucker can convert cost relief and portfolio actions into steadier earnings growth while working through soft sales expectations.

Zacks Signals on SJMSJM currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), with Value, Growth, and VGM Score of B and a Momentum Score of C. Under the Zacks framework, Style Scores are most useful when paired with top-ranked stocks, while a Rank #4 points to weaker estimate revision trends despite respectable style characteristics.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

That makes the current setup mixed rather than outright supportive. The Style Scores suggest some favorable underlying traits, but the Zacks Rank remains the primary signal and can change as earnings estimate revisions move after the quarter.

The J. M. Smucker Company remains a Buy after a strong earnings report, with a sustainable 4% dividend yield paid to wait for a potential recovery. SJM is working on its turnaround, targeting net debt/EBITDA of ~3x by fiscal year-end and maintaining robust free cash flow to support dividends and potential buybacks in the future. Management guides FY27 net sales to decline 3–4% but expects Adj. EPS of $9.75–$10.25, with $1B in free cash flow after $325M in CAPEX.

‘Sell at former tops' is an old Wall Street saying. It's not fiction. It refers to a common market dynamic.

Stocks tend to hit resistance when they reach levels that had previously been tops or peaks. As you can see on the chart, J.M. Smucker hit resistance yesterday around the $117 level.

Smucker’s Buyer's Remorse?There are people who bought shares around $117 who regretted their decision to do so when the price fell after. A number of them decided to hold onto their losing position.

Some of them also decided that if they could eventually do so, they would exit their positions at breakeven. So when the stock rallied back to around $117 yesterday, they placed sell orders. These orders formed resistance at the level again.

J.M. Smucker, also known as Smucker’s, is also overbought. This means the stock is above its typical trading range.

This dynamic will draw sellers into the market. They will be anticipating a reversal and move lower back into the range.

Their selling could put downward pressure on the shares.

Sometimes stocks reverse and head lower after they reach resistance. This happens when some of the sellers who created the resistance become impatient.

They are concerned that other sellers will undercut their prices. As a result, they reduce their offer prices. Other impatient sellers see this and reduce their prices as well. It results in a snowball effect that forces the shares into a downtrend.

Being overbought while at resistance can be a bearish dynamic. The rally in J.M. Smucker may be over.

Image: Shutterstock

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Posted by Defense World Staff on Apr 6th, 2026

Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG – Get Free Report) and Universal Energy (OTCMKTS:UVSE – Get Free Report) are both energy companies, but which is the superior business? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their institutional ownership, valuation, profitability, risk, dividends, earnings and analyst recommendations.

Valuation & Earnings This table compares Northern Oil and Gas and Universal Energy”s gross revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and valuation.

Gross Revenue Price/Sales Ratio Net Income Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings Ratio Northern Oil and Gas $2.48 billion 1.11 $38.76 million $0.33 85.66 Universal Energy N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Northern Oil and Gas has higher revenue and earnings than Universal Energy.

Analyst Ratings This is a summary of current ratings and price targets for Northern Oil and Gas and Universal Energy, as provided by MarketBeat.

Sell Ratings Hold Ratings Buy Ratings Strong Buy Ratings Rating Score Northern Oil and Gas 1 4 3 1 2.44 Universal Energy 0 0 0 0 0.00 Northern Oil and Gas presently has a consensus target price of $31.71, suggesting a potential upside of 12.19%. Given Northern Oil and Gas’ stronger consensus rating and higher possible upside, equities analysts plainly believe Northern Oil and Gas is more favorable than Universal Energy.

Profitability This table compares Northern Oil and Gas and Universal Energy’s net margins, return on equity and return on assets.

Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets Northern Oil and Gas 1.57% 19.74% 8.14% Universal Energy N/A N/A N/A Institutional & Insider Ownership 98.8% of Northern Oil and Gas shares are held by institutional investors. 2.9% of Northern Oil and Gas shares are held by company insiders. Comparatively, 0.2% of Universal Energy shares are held by company insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that large money managers, endowments and hedge funds believe a company is poised for long-term growth.

Volatility and Risk Northern Oil and Gas has a beta of 0.94, suggesting that its share price is 6% less volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, Universal Energy has a beta of 0.36, suggesting that its share price is 64% less volatile than the S&P 500.

Summary Northern Oil and Gas beats Universal Energy on 11 of the 11 factors compared between the two stocks.

About Northern Oil and Gas (Get Free Report)

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. It primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

About Universal Energy (Get Free Report)

Universal Energy Corp., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States and Canada. It has 13 oil and gas lease projects. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Lake Mary, Florida.

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Posted by Defense World Staff on Apr 9th, 2026

Harbor Capital Advisors Inc. lessened its holdings in shares of Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG – Free Report) by 97.2% during the fourth quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 1,353 shares of the company’s stock after selling 46,824 shares during the quarter. Harbor Capital Advisors Inc.’s holdings in Northern Oil and Gas were worth $29,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

Other institutional investors have also recently bought and sold shares of the company. First Horizon Corp acquired a new position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas in the third quarter valued at approximately $27,000. Jones Financial Companies Lllp grew its position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas by 181.0% in the first quarter. Jones Financial Companies Lllp now owns 1,107 shares of the company’s stock valued at $33,000 after purchasing an additional 713 shares during the last quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC grew its position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas by 429.4% in the second quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 1,514 shares of the company’s stock valued at $43,000 after purchasing an additional 1,228 shares during the last quarter. Smartleaf Asset Management LLC grew its position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas by 85.7% in the second quarter. Smartleaf Asset Management LLC now owns 1,521 shares of the company’s stock valued at $44,000 after purchasing an additional 702 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Strs Ohio acquired a new position in shares of Northern Oil and Gas in the first quarter valued at approximately $88,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 98.80% of the company’s stock.

Northern Oil and Gas Stock Down 5.1% NYSE NOG opened at $28.06 on Thursday. The business has a fifty day moving average price of $27.43 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $24.35. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.13, a current ratio of 1.09 and a quick ratio of 1.09. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. has a fifty-two week low of $19.88 and a fifty-two week high of $32.62. The stock has a market capitalization of $2.73 billion, a PE ratio of 85.02 and a beta of 0.94.

Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, February 25th. The company reported $0.83 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.71 by $0.12. The company had revenue of $610.18 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $524.98 million. Northern Oil and Gas had a net margin of 1.57% and a return on equity of 19.74%. The firm’s revenue was up 18.5% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm posted $1.11 EPS. Equities analysts expect that Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. will post 5.18 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Northern Oil and Gas Dividend Announcement The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, April 30th. Investors of record on Monday, March 30th will be given a dividend of $0.45 per share. This represents a $1.80 annualized dividend and a yield of 6.4%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Monday, March 30th. Northern Oil and Gas’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 545.45%.

Analysts Set New Price Targets A number of brokerages recently issued reports on NOG. Weiss Ratings reissued a “hold (c-)” rating on shares of Northern Oil and Gas in a research report on Thursday, January 22nd. Mizuho set a $29.00 price target on Northern Oil and Gas in a research report on Wednesday, January 21st. Citigroup increased their price target on Northern Oil and Gas from $34.00 to $39.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, March 31st. Royal Bank Of Canada reduced their price target on Northern Oil and Gas from $33.00 to $30.00 and set a “sector perform” rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, January 20th. Finally, Morgan Stanley set a $24.00 price target on Northern Oil and Gas and gave the stock an “underweight” rating in a research report on Friday, January 23rd. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, three have given a Buy rating, four have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $31.71.

View Our Latest Report on Northern Oil and Gas

Northern Oil and Gas Profile (Free Report)

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc is a publicly traded independent energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. The company’s primary operations are concentrated in the Williston Basin, where it secures acreage positions and partners with drilling operators to advance upstream projects. Through strategic leasehold acquisitions and joint ventures, Northern Oil and Gas seeks to expand its footprint in both conventional and unconventional reservoirs.

Northern Oil and Gas employs horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies to develop unconventional resource plays, particularly in the Bakken, Three Forks and Red River formations of North Dakota and Montana.

Read More Five stocks we like better than Northern Oil and Gas Want to see what other hedge funds are holding NOG? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG – Free Report).

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MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) (“NOG” or the “Company”) announced today that it plans to issue its first quarter 2026 financial and operating results on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, after the market closes.

In connection with its earnings release, NOG will host a conference call and webcast to discuss its financial results at 8:00 a.m. Central Time on Wednesday, April 29, 2026.

Those wishing to listen to the conference call may do so via phone or the Company’s webcast.

Conference Call and Webcast Details:

  Date:

April 29, 2026

Time:

8:00 a.m. Central Time

Dial-In:

(800) 715-9871

International Dial-In:

(646) 307-1963

Conference ID:

4503139

Webcast:

First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call

  Replay Information:

  A replay of the conference call will be available through May 13, 2026, by dialing:

Dial-In:

(800) 770-2030

International Dial-In:

(647) 362-9199

Conference ID:

4503139

An archive of the conference call webcast will also be available on NOG’s website through April 28, 2027.

ABOUT NOG

NOG is a real asset company with a primary strategy of acquiring and investing in non-operated minority working and mineral interests in the premier hydrocarbon producing basins within the contiguous United States. More information about NOG can be found at www.noginc.com.

More News From Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

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Key Takeaways NOG to report Q1 on April 28 with estimated EPS of 80 cents and $523.5M in revenues, both down YoY.Northern Oil and Gas faces weak prices, deferrals, rising costs and wider differentials, squeezing margins.NOG may see upside from gas output growth, lower well costs, hedging and a 2.6% rise in volumes. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 80 cents per share, and that for revenues is pinned at $523.5 million.

Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced this oil and gas exploration and production company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. But first, it is worth taking a look at NOG’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of NOG’s Q4 EarningsIn the last reported quarter, this Minnetonka, MN-based independent energy company’s earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by strong production, with total output beating the consensus mark by 4.2%. It reported adjusted earnings per share of 83 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. However, revenues of $447.7 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $515 million.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, resulting in an average surprise of 29.7%.

This is depicted in the graph below:

NOG’s Trend in Estimate RevisionThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has witnessed four upward and two downward movements in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 39.9% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a 9.3% decrease from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider for NOG’s Q1 PerformanceNorthern Oil and Gas faces near-term pressure from weak commodity prices and operator-driven activity deferrals, which are already impacting production visibility. Management highlighted a typical first-quarter downtick due to weather, curtailments and lower activity. Rising gas exposure comes with weaker realizations, and widening oil differentials further compress margins. Additionally, ongoing non-cash impairments tied to lower oil prices and higher maintenance costs signal underlying stress, while the uncertain timing of deferred wells and inconsistent operator behavior add volatility to near-term earnings outcomes. The increase in NOG’s costs might have dented its to-be-reported bottom line. According to our model prediction, the company’s first-quarter total operating expenses are likely to total $636.2 million, which is up 70.6% from the year-ago quarter’s level.

Despite headwinds, strong gas production growth, lower well costs and high-grading of drilling locations could support upside. Front-loaded capital deployment and ground game success may drive better-than-expected volumes, while hedging and cost discipline help sustain margins, positioning the company for a potential earnings beat. According to our model, NOG's total average daily production volume is expected to increase 2.6% year over year, reaching 138.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d).

What Does Our Model Predict for NOG?Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Northern Oil and Gas this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

NOG currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to ConsiderHere are some firms from the other space that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

ARC Resources Ltd. (AETUF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.55% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 28. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ARC Resources is engaged in the exploration, acquisition and development of oil and natural gas properties in western Canada. AETUF’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, beat the same in two and were in line in one of the quarters, delivering an average surprise of 2.2%.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 28.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPD’s 2026 EPS indicates 7.5% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $79.8 billion, EPD’s shares have gained 21.3% in a year.

Antero Resources Corporation (AR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.46% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on April 29.

Antero Resources is an independent exploration and production company focused on the development of natural gas, NGLs and oil resources primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS indicates 137.4% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $11.3 billion, AR’s shares have risen 13.3% in a year.

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.74 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.71 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.33 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +4.23%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this independent oil and gas company would post earnings of $0.71 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.83, delivering a surprise of +16.9%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

Northern Oil and Gas, which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, posted revenues of $539.86 million for the quarter ended March 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.57%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $576.95 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Northern Oil and Gas shares have added about 25.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 4.8%.

What's Next for Northern Oil and Gas?While Northern Oil and Gas has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Northern Oil and Gas was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.73 on $538.33 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $3.04 on $2.14 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is currently in the top 4% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Another stock from the same industry, Ring Energy (REI - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2026.

This independent oil and gas company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.03 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -40%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Ring Energy's revenues are expected to be $70.9 million, down 10.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Key Takeaways NOG Q1 EPS of 74 cents beat estimates on strong output, but fell from $1.33 a year ago.Revenues of $539.9M beat estimates but declined Y/Y due to lower oil and gas sales.Production rose 10% to 148,303 Boe/d, while operating expenses surged 77% to $660M. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of 74 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. The outperformance reflects strong production. However, the bottom line declined from the year-ago adjusted profit of $1.33 due to weaker natural gas prices and a 77% increase in operating expenses.

The Minnetonka, MN-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported oil and gas sales of $539.9 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $511 million, supported by higher crude oil realizations. However, the top line decreased from the year-ago figure of $576.9 million. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to lower oil and gas sales during this quarter.

In February, NOG closed the joint Ohio Utica acquisition of upstream and midstream assets with an adjusted ownership split of 40% for $464.6 million, including the previously paid $58.8 million deposit.

In March, NOG completed a common stock offering of 8.3 million shares of common stock, generating net proceeds of $227.9 million. Funds raised in the offering were applied to the outstanding borrowings on the company’s revolving credit facility.

NOG’s Q1 Production DetailsThe first-quarter production increased 10% year over year to 148,303 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d). Additionally, the figure beat our estimate of 141,049 Boe/d.

While oil volume totaled 73,567 Bod (a 6% decrease year over year), natural gas (and natural gas liquids) amounted to 448,444 thousand cubic feet per day (a 33% increase). Our model estimate for oil volume and natural gas production was pegged at 70,000 Bod and 411,400 thousand cubic feet per day, respectively.

The average sales price for crude was $66.32 per barrel, indicating a 2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s level of $64.92. Moreover, the figure beat our expectation of $52.51 per barrel.

The average realized natural gas price was $2.50 per thousand cubic feet compared with $3.86 in the year-earlier period. Our model estimate for the same was pinned at $4.58 per thousand cubic feet.

NOG’s Costs & ExpensesTotal operating expenses in the quarter rose to $660 million from $372.8 million in the year-ago period. This was mainly on account of a surge in production expenses, general and administrative expenses, impairment of oil and gas assets, and other expenses. The metric came above our estimate of $636.2 million.

Capital Expenditures of NOGThe company reported capital expenditures of $270.1 million for the first quarter, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other unplanned items. Of this total, $226.5 million was dedicated to drilling and completion activities on organic assets, while $43.6 million was allocated to Ground Game efforts, including associated development costs.

During the first quarter, NOG placed 17.1 net wells into production.

NOG’s Financial PositionThis Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s free cash flow for the quarter totaled $30.4 million.

As of March 31, 2026, Northern Oil had $37 million in cash and cash equivalents. The company had a long-term debt of $2.6 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 58.8%.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Important Energy Earnings at a GlanceWhile we have discussed NOG’s first-quarter results in detail, let us take a look at three other key reports in the energy space.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN - Free Report) reported a first-quarter 2026 adjusted net loss of 6 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 10-cent loss. However, the bottom line decreased from the year-ago quarter's breakeven result due to a decrease in operating income in its Drilling Services, Completion Services and Drilling Products segments.

Total revenues of $1.1 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.1%. This was driven by higher-than-expected revenues from the Drilling Services and Completion Services segments. The Drilling Services and Completion Services segments reported revenues of $351.7 million and $679.6 million, which beat the consensus mark of $350 million and $37.1 million, respectively. However, the top line decreased about 12.8% year over year. This underperformance can be attributed to the decrease in year-over-year segment revenues.

As of March 31, 2026, the company had cash and cash equivalents worth $337.2 million and long-term debt of $1.2 billion. Its debt-to-capitalization was 27.8%.

NOV Inc. (NOV - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 15 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 17 cents. The bottom line also decreased 21% from the year-ago quarter’s 19 cents.

The oil and gas equipment and services company’s total revenues of $2.05 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $2 million but fell 2.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $2.1 billion.

The lower-than-expected quarterly earnings of the company were primarily attributable to conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted logistics, delayed deliveries and increased operational costs.

As of March 31, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $1.3 billion and long-term debt of $1.7 billion with a debt-to-capitalization of 21.2%. NOV had $1.5 billion available on its primary revolving credit facility during the same time.

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR - Free Report) reported a first-quarter 2026 adjusted loss of $1.54 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $2.39. Additionally, the metric is significantly above the prior-year quarter’s reported loss of $7.5 per share. This outperformance was mainly driven by higher adjusted operating income from its International Drilling segment.

The oil and gas drilling company’s operating revenues of $783.5 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $779 million. The top line also increased from the year-ago quarter’s $736.2 million, primarily supported by higher contributions from the U.S. Drilling, International Drilling and Drilling Solutions segments.

As of March 31, 2026, Nabors had $500.9 million in cash and short-term investments. Long-term debt was about $2.1 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 78.8%.

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For the quarter ended March 2026, Northern Oil and Gas (NOG - Free Report) reported revenue of $539.86 million, down 6.4% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.74, compared to $1.33 in the year-ago quarter.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of +5.57% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $511.4 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.71, the EPS surprise was +4.23%.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.

Here is how Northern Oil and Gas performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

Average Daily Production - Total: 148,303.00 BOE/D versus the five-analyst average estimate of 141,049.30 BOE/D.Average Daily Production - Oil: 73,567.00 BBL/D versus the five-analyst average estimate of 71,669.23 BBL/D.Average Daily Production - Natural Gas and NGLs: 448,444.00 Mcf/D versus 416,720.50 Mcf/D estimated by five analysts on average.Average Sales Prices - Natural Gas and NGLs Net of Settled Natural Gas Derivatives: $2.77 compared to the $3.26 average estimate based on four analysts.Average Sales Prices - Oil Net of Settled Oil Derivatives: $62.00 compared to the $62.19 average estimate based on four analysts.Net Production - Natural Gas and NGLs: 40,360.00 Mcf compared to the 37,818.07 Mcf average estimate based on three analysts.Net Production - Oil: 6,621.00 KBBL versus 6,427.38 KBBL estimated by three analysts on average.Net Production - Total: 13,347.00 KBOE compared to the 12,730.40 KBOE average estimate based on three analysts.Average Sales Prices - Oil: $66.32 versus the two-analyst average estimate of $59.35.Net Sales- Oil and Gas Sales: $539.86 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $514.84 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -6.4%.Net Sales- Oil Sales: $439.08 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $375.33 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -4.5%.Net Sales- Natural Gas and NGL Sales: $100.77 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $122.85 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -14.1%.View all Key Company Metrics for Northern Oil and Gas here>>>

Shares of Northern Oil and Gas have returned -11.7% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

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Published in earnings earnings-estimates-revisions earnings-surprise

MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) (“NOG”) today announced that it has agreed to purchase an undivided 25% interest in the Light-Oil Duvernay Assets owned and operated by Parallax Energy Operating Inc. (“Parallax” or the “Seller”).

MANAGEMENT COMMENTS

"Quality oil inventory is becoming increasingly scarce, and NOG's scaled non-operated model positions us to access opportunities that most in our sector cannot. Our ability to structure creative, accretive transactions with best-in-class operators is what sets NOG apart. The Duvernay is one of North America's premier light oil resources — high-quality, low-cost, long-life inventory with meaningful upside that remains largely untapped. Parallax is led by a team with a demonstrated track record of developing Duvernay assets, backed by Carnelian Energy Capital, one of North America’s leading energy investors. The decision to incorporate equity consideration aligns mutual interests while enhancing our per-share metrics and balance sheet. This transaction is the result of disciplined evaluation of the meaningful opportunities we see in Canada, and a direct reflection of our ability to identify and convert high-quality assets into long-term value for shareholders."

LIGHT-OIL DUVERNAY ACQUISITION

The Assets are comprised of an undivided non-operated interest which includes, net to NOG, ~4,000 Boe per day of production and ~75,000 acres in the Light-Oil Duvernay Shale at an initial unadjusted purchase price of CA$350 million (~US$259 million), subject to typical closing adjustments. The initial unadjusted purchase price will be funded with CA$113 million (~US$83.5) million of NOG common stock issued to the Seller at closing, with the remaining consideration sourced from cash on hand, operating free cash flow and borrowings under NOG’s revolving credit facility.

In addition, NOG has agreed to additional contingent consideration of CA$25 million (~US$18.5 million), payable in cash or common stock (at NOG’s election) in the first quarter of 2028 if certain average oil prices are achieved through the end of 2027.

The acquired Assets include over 500 gross high-quality, low breakeven locations. Substantially all the Assets are operated by Parallax, with NOG participating in development pursuant to a long-term Joint Development Agreement with multi-year drilling commitments entered into in connection with the acquisition.

NOG expects average production for the properties for full year 2027 of ~4,000 Boe per day (2-stream, ~80% oil). Operating costs are expected to be less than $7.50 per Boe/d, below NOG’s corporate average. NOG expects to incur up to US$40 - $45 million in capital expenditures on the assets post-closing in 2026, and US$45 - $50 million in 2027.

In connection with the transaction, NOG intends to enter into derivatives transactions to hedge currency fluctuations related to operating costs on a multi-year basis. Depending on market conditions, NOG may also repurchase a portion of the stock consideration in the open market.

The effective date for the transaction is April 1, 2026, and NOG expects to close the transaction late in the second quarter of 2026. As part of the transaction, NOG has formed a wholly-owned Canadian subsidiary, NOG Energy Canada, Ltd.

ADVISORS

Citigroup Global Markets acted as exclusive advisor to NOG on the transaction. Kirkland & Ellis LLP and Blakes, Cassels & Graydon LLP are serving as Northern’s legal advisors.

National Bank Capital Markets and RBC Capital Markets acted as financial advisors to Parallax on the transaction. Stikeman Elliot LLP served as Parallax's legal advisor.

UPDATED COMPANY GUIDANCE

NOG is providing updated company guidance proforma for the light-oil Duvernay acquisition in line with the “high-end” of the former low activity range; consistent with commentary on our first quarter 2026 earnings call.

Prior FY2026 Low Activity Guidance

Revised FY2026 Annual Guidance

Annual Production (2-stream, Boe/day)

139,000 – 143,000

143,000 – 148,000

Annual Oil Production

68,000 – 72,000

71,500 – 73,500

Net Wells Turned - in- Line (TILs)

68.0 – 72.0

74.0 – 76.0

Total Budgeted Capital Expenditures ($MM)

$850 – $900

$850 – $900

LOE/Production Expenses (per Boe)

$9.65 - $10.10

$9.70 - $9.90

Cash G&A (ex-transaction costs) (per Boe)

$0.81 - $0.86

$0.83 - $0.86

Non-Cash G&A (per Boe)

$0.25 - $0.30

$0.25 - $0.30

Production Taxes (as a % of Oil & Gas Sales)

7% - 8%

7.5% – 8.0%

Oil Differential to NYMEX WTI (per Bbl)

($5.35) – ($6.00)

($5.25 - $5.60)

Gas Realization as a % of Henry Hub/MCF

70% - 75%

70.0% – 72.5%

DD&A Rate per BOE

$15.00 – $16.00

$15.00 - $15.50

Updates to guidance are comprised of:

As described on Q1 call, stand-alone oil production update consistent with “high-end of the low case” from prior guidance Gas volume increase driven by better well performance and timing Minor contribution from pending Duvernay acquisition (late 2Q assumed closing) Capital expenditures, even inclusive of Duvernay transaction, remain unchanged, driven primarily by cost efficiencies LOE guidance updated toward low end of previous guidance Material improvement to oil differentials for the year, driven primarily by Williston pricing Overall gas differentials slightly lower, driven by Waha, mostly offset by Appalachian NGL pricing ABOUT NOG

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) is the largest publicly traded dedicated non-operator in the United States, built on a differentiated strategy of acquiring non-operated minority working interests and mineral rights across the premier basins of North America. By combining deep industry relationships with disciplined capital allocation, NOG has built a scaled, diversified portfolio that generates durable production and strong cash flow for its shareholders. More information about NOG can be found at www.noginc.com.

ABOUT PARALLAX ENERGY OPERATING INC.

Parallax Energy Operating Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company based in Calgary, Alberta, formed in partnership with funds managed by Carnelian Energy Capital Management, L.P., is focused on leasing, developing and operating oil and gas properties throughout Western Canada. For more information, please visit www.parallaxenergy.ca.

SAFE HARBOR

This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and future results that are subject to the safe harbors created under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”). All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this release regarding NOG’s financial position, common stock dividends, including any increases thereto, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations and industry conditions are forward-looking statements. When used in this release, forward-looking statements are generally accompanied by terms or phrases such as “estimate,” “project,” “predict,” “believe,” “expect,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “target,” “could,” “plan,” “intend,” “seek,” “goal,” “will,” “should,” “may” or other words and similar expressions that convey the uncertainty of future events or outcomes. Items contemplating or making assumptions about actual or potential future sales, market size, collaborations, and trends or operating results also constitute such forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and important factors (many of which are beyond NOG’s control) that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements, including the following: changes in crude oil and natural gas prices, the pace of drilling and completions activity on NOG’s properties and properties pending acquisition, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic slowdown, NOG’s ability to acquire additional development opportunities, changes in NOG’s reserves estimates or the value thereof, general economic or industry conditions, nationally and/or in the communities in which NOG conducts business, changes in the interest rate environment, legislation or regulatory requirements, conditions of the securities markets, NOG’s ability to consummate any pending acquisition transactions (including the transactions described herein), other risks and uncertainties related to the closing of pending acquisition transactions (including the transactions described herein), NOG’s ability to raise or access capital, changes in accounting principles, policies or guidelines, financial or political instability, acts of war or terrorism, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technical factors affecting NOG’s operations, products, services and prices.

NOG has based these forward-looking statements on its current expectations and assumptions about future events. While management considers these expectations and assumptions to be reasonable, they are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, regulatory and other risks, contingencies and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond NOG’s control. NOG does not undertake any duty to update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as may be required by the federal securities laws.

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