Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

By PYMNTS  |  July 23, 2026

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Amazon’s founder reportedly sees Prime Video as the place to tout the company’s AI efforts.

Jeff Bezos has urged Prime Video boss Mike Hopkins to revamp the streaming service to make artificial intelligence (AI) a starring role, Reuters reported Thursday (July 23), citing four sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

That led to an in-house project called Lighthouse, which would give the more than 200 million people who use Prime Video a better glimpse at Amazon’s AI capabilities, which the company has spent hundreds of billions of dollars developing.

PYMNTS has contacted Amazon for comment but has not yet gotten a reply.

Reuters sources said Lighthouse is seen as a key part of Amazon’s efforts to boost its standing in the AI space amid competition from the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic. Other projects, like the long-running upgrade of Amazon’s Alexa voice assistant to offer more conversational responses, have produced mixed results, with that division still losing money, sources have told Reuters.

According to Reuters’ sources, the Prime Video project came after a presentation the streaming service’s executives made to Bezos last fall turned “contentious,” with Bezos unhappy that plans for an updated Prime Video did not effectively spotlight the service’s AI/personalization capabilities. This led the company to jettison its original plans and launch Lighthouse.

In other Amazon news, PYMNTS wrote last week about new PYMNTS Intelligence research showing that while Walmart continues to dominate when it comes to routine shopping trips — especially for groceries — Amazon is gaining in purchases consumers research, plan and have delivered.

“The findings point to a broader change in consumer behavior: Shoppers are more often choosing the retailer that best fits each purchase rather than just making purchases where it is most convenient,” the report said.

“That creates fresh opportunities for merchants that can connect physical stores, digital experiences and flexible payment options into one seamless journey.”

The research also found an “inversion of traditional retail logic,” PYMNTS wrote. Retailers have long seen the weekly shopping trip as the foundation for bigger purchases, though new data indicates that relationship has softened. Customers still turn to Walmart for day-to-day essentials, but are increasingly relying on Amazon for more deliberate, higher-value purchases.

“In other words, frequent store traffic no longer guarantees a larger share of discretionary spending,” the report added. “As shoppers become more comfortable moving between physical stores and digital channels, retailers have an opportunity to rethink how they connect in-store visits with online engagement, personalized offers and payment experiences that encourage customers to complete more of their shopping in one ecosystem.”

I keep hitting the buy button on Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction), and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) just handed me another reason to keep going. When a Mag 7 peer posts Google Cloud growth of 82% with nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 running Gemini Enterprise, that lights up the entire cloud category. The market leader in cloud is still AWS, and AWS reports next Thursday.

The Three Engines I Cannot Stop Buying My thesis is plain. Amazon is three compounding businesses stapled together: a retail and logistics rail that would take a decade to rebuild, a cloud franchise that just posted its fastest growth in 15 quarters, and an advertising business now clearing more than $70 billion in trailing revenue. Any one of them would earn a top-quartile slot in my portfolio.

Start with AWS. Last quarter it grew 28% year over year to $37.59 billion at a 37.7% operating margin, and Andy Jassy called it “our fastest growth in 15 quarters.” The customer sheet is filling up: OpenAI committed roughly 2 GW of Trainium capacity from 2027, and Anthropic committed up to 5 GW. Amazon’s disclosed AI and cloud backlog now sits at $364 billion, which is contracted revenue standing behind the capex bill everyone loves to worry about.

Second, custom silicon. The Trainium, Graviton, and Nitro chip business is at a $20 billion annual run rate, growing triple digits year over year. Every workload Amazon runs on its own silicon instead of buying merchant GPUs is a permanent boost to that 37.7% AWS operating margin. Alphabet is racing to match with TPU. Amazon is already there.

Third, Bedrock and ads monetize the same customer base twice. Advertising grew 24% year over year on top of a $70 billion run rate, while Bedrock lets Amazon charge enterprises for AI inference on the AWS bill they already pay. That is compounding revenue with almost no incremental sales cost.

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Why My Next Dollar Skips Alphabet I own some Alphabet, and Sundar Pichai’s EPS of $9.11 against a $3.0427 estimate was real. Here is what pushes my next dollar to Amazon anyway: Google’s buyback program was suspended in Q2 2026, its long-term debt jumped from $46.5 billion to $98.2 billion, and Search still carries the revenue mix. Amazon has three engines, no paused buyback conversation, and Google Cloud remains the #3 vendor chasing AWS.

The Risk I Own With Eyes Open Trailing free cash flow collapsed 95% to $1.2 billion because capex more than doubled, and long-term debt climbed from $65.6 billion to $119.1 billion with 2026 capex heading toward $200 billion. If AI monetization stalls, returns compress. Two facts keep my finger on the button: interest coverage of 35.17 and debt-to-equity of 0.37 mean this balance sheet can carry the bet, and the $364 billion backlog is already contracted against the spend.

The people running the company agree. On May 21, Andy Jassy bought 50,000 shares, AWS CEO Matt Garman added 18,196, and CFO Brian Olsavsky added 15,450. Polymarket now prices a 95% probability that Amazon beats Q2 earnings on July 30, with analyst consensus at $312.87 against a $244.85 close.

My money is going to the one company that owns the retail rail, the cloud rail, the ad rail, and now the silicon rail. My buy button stays warm through July 30 and long after.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Amazon didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Hayete Gallot, now executive vice president of Microsoft Security, speaks at a Microsoft event in France in 2024. (Microsoft Photo) GeekWire is profiling over the next few weeks some of the people and teams that are shaping the evolution of Microsoft in what we’re calling its “Microsoft 2.5” era.

AI has had an impact on just about every tech-product category, but especially security. Attackers are using AI; customers are looking to defend with AI. The goalposts keep shifting. “Agentic security” is now the holy grail, and Hayete Gallot, the newly minted executive vice president of Microsoft Security, is leading the charge toward it.

Gallot, a 16-plus-year Microsoft veteran who rejoined the company in February after a 1.5-year Google detour, replaced Charlie Bell, who came to Microsoft from AWS in 2021 and continues at the company as an individual contributor focused on engineering quality.

“Customers care about two things: solving for security and being able to afford it,” Gallot said when I asked during our interview this week why she came back to Microsoft.

“I am a problem solver. And an engineer at heart (and by training). Security is the most important problem right now — and Microsoft is the only place with all of the puzzle pieces to help our customers.”

Since her return, Gallot hasn’t been shy about shaking things up. As noted recently by The Information, at least nine corporate vice presidents who previously reported to Bell have left the company this year.

“We’re making changes to ensure we’re in the best formation to go after this opportunity,” she acknowledged.

“I’m motivated by doing the right thing for our customers, my teams, and tech outcomes,” she said. “I like to move quickly: days and weeks, not months and years, learning through execution, iterating rapidly, and adjusting based on real customer signals.”

The company isn’t starting from scratch. As of 2021, Microsoft claimed security was a $10 billion business for the company. By 2023, security had reached a $20 billion annual revenue rate, officials said.

Those claims haven’t been without controversy. Microsoft has built a huge business in finding and fixing security problems which some customers felt were of the company’s own making.

Microsoft has a wide-ranging and rather unwieldy security portfolio, encompassing identity management (Entra), endpoint protection (Defender), endpoint management (Intune), security information and event management (Sentinel), and compliance (Purview), among others.

In 2023, Microsoft introduced its Security Copilot set of AI analysis services that integrated with some of its existing security offerings. But a portal-based solution like Security Copilot doesn’t offer the kind of end-to-end coverage that an agentic security platform can, Gallot said.

The problem is that attackers are using agents, too. Customers need real-time insight into what’s happening in their environment, and the ability to act just as quickly, Gallot said.

Agentic security is about “taking the signals and turning them into a graph that is useful,” Gallot said. “If you’re trying to reason about 100 trillion signals, it’s not really effective.” The graph, she said, lets agents pick the right model for each threat and close the loop.

In practice, that means the system can quarantine a device or revoke access on its own, for example, rather than waiting for a human.

Microsoft’s core existing security products will continue to play a role as the landscape evolves, both spotting the problems and acting on them. Security Copilot isn’t going away in the process: “You’ll have Copilot and you’ll have agentic security,” she said.

The company’s new Agent 365 “control plane” — a central console for tracking every AI agent a company runs — fits in by letting customers see the “blast radius” of an agent, meaning everything a hijacked agent could reach, Gallot said. It’s similar in concept to Zero Trust, the “never trust, always verify” security model that limited how far an attacker could get with a stolen employee login, but applied now to agents rather than people.

So what exactly is this ‘agentic security’ thing? Microsoft has a whole website dedicated to the very topic.

Traditional AI security and agentic AI security are fundamentally different, Microsoft says. Agentic security doesn’t just protect models and training data; it also can protect tools, workflows, memory, connected systems and more. Because agents can take action, the potential positive and negative stakes are higher.

While AI has helped businesses make strides in finding and fixing vulnerabilities, it hasn’t gone much beyond that. Microsoft introduced its multi-model agentic scanning harness (MDASH) as its first step into the agentic security space, Gallot said.

The company used MDASH internally to boost finding and fixing Windows security issues, and it is now making it available to select customers in an expanded preview. MDASH will allow customers to use the best model for the right task to secure all different types of code bases, she said.

Microsoft is rumored to be readying a more comprehensive agentic security offering, of which MDASH is likely just one piece.

Microsoft is far from the only one doing this. AWS, Anthropic, and OpenAI are offering security tools on their platforms, and dedicated security vendors are building their own agentic platforms.

Microsoft has the advantage of scale in the enterprise. The question is whether Gallot and her new leadership team can turn that scale and emerging AI tools into both a bigger business for the company and better protection for its customers.

SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--F9Analytics, in Partnership with Microsoft, introduces RealAccretive, the advanced Multifamily Profit Management solution now available on Microsoft Marketplace and Microsoft Azure. As a US Certified Enterprise Profit Management solution, RealAccretive is engineered to help the multifamily sector increase Net Operating Income (NOI) and Net Cash Flow (NCF) from operations through automated profit management at scale. “As companies learn that the cost and performan.

Amazon and Microsoft have devised new ways to get people playing video games in the cloud.

Microsoft's Xbox division said Thursday that it will test an advertising-supported way of letting people stream video games.

Amazon, meanwhile, announced plans to add the Luna cloud gaming service to its Prime Video streaming platform. Amazon includes Prime Video in Prime subscriptions, which cost $14.99 per month. Amazon's adjustment will give Luna more front-and-center promotion on its website. Previously, Luna was only accessible through a dedicated website.

The two companies have succeeded in cloud computing but have stumbled as they have tried to get people hooked on games over sometimes unreliable internet connections, which can result in latency.

"Our goal is simple. Give more people more affordable ways to play," Xbox wrote in a blog post.

Microsoft started selling its inaugural Xbox console in 2001. Today, Xbox trails Nintendo and Sony in console sales. The subsidiary is trying to return to growth and widen margins after spending $75.4 billion on Call of Duty publisher Activision Blizzard in 2023.

Since Meta executive Asha Sharma replaced Phil Spencer in February as Xbox CEO, she has appointed new leaders, touted a forthcoming console, pushed for exclusive games and dropped subscription prices. This month, she announced a 20% reduction in force and said Xbox will spin out four development studios.

Xbox has pursued advertising in the past, and customers haven't always been fans. In 2024, one person complained about a McDonald's ad appearing on a screen for selecting games. Publishers Electronic Arts and Take-Two Interactive have experimented with ads and quickly backpedaled in response to criticism.

"Advertising has existed in gaming for decades, from in-game placements to free-to-play models," Xbox said in the post. "But it hasn't always been built with the player in mind. When done well, advertising can help lower the cost of access."

Read more CNBC tech newsMoonshot AI accessed Nvidia's chips despite Chinese export ban, White House official saysAlphabet and Tesla test Wall Street's patience as AI spending overshadows growthAlphabet earnings takeaways: Q2 revenue beats, GOOGL stock sinks on 2026 capex hikeTesla misses on earnings, as free cash flow turns negative and margins slideGamers participating in the Xbox Insider Program can join the test with a one-hour session limit. It applies to games that are already in a user's library.

Xbox has not created a tier of its Game Pass subscription service that contains advertising, but consumers have shown interest in such offerings. Netflix's ad-supported service tier has picked up tens of millions of users, CNBC reported in 2024.

Amazon entered the cloud gaming market during the Covid pandemic, as gaming was gaining popularity, with people spending more time at home. The digital commerce company debuted Luna in 2020, three years after Microsoft had introduced Game Pass, and one year after cloud challenger Google revealed its own cloud streaming option, Stadia.

Google discontinued Stadia in 2023. With Luna, users can play on smartphones and standard computers without purchasing consoles or dedicated gaming PCs.

By integrating Luna into Prime Video, the digital commerce company is doubling down on its push to attract casual players with party games and recognizable intellectual property like "Harry Potter" and "Tomb Raider." Amazon's gaming head, Jeff Gattis, told CNBC in an interview that the company doesn't aim to lure hardcore gamers or compete with console makers.

The unit, which Amazon recently reorganized to unify Luna and its game studios, has struggled to produce big hits, faced executive turnover and undergone several rounds of layoffs. Amazon has recently shut down or offloaded several of its titles, including its massively multiplayer online games "New World" and a planned "Lord of the Rings" project.

Luna has "millions" of users across the U.S. and 13 other countries, with the goal of reaching 10 million to 20 million "as quickly as we can," Gattis said.

In a market where PlayStation, Xbox, Epic Games and Steam are "fighting it out with each other," Gattis said gamers are "well-served, if not overserved." He said there's a robust segment of consumers who want to play games but don't want to invest in increasingly expensive hardware and software.

Amazon is working to fix an awareness gap among consumers who may not know about or understand its gaming strategy, Gattis said.

"I always say people don't have to like our strategy or agree with it, but it is important," he said. "Hopefully, they understand it."

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Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ: AMD is shifting away from piecemeal silicon sales toward a full-stack hardware offensive. Punctuated by a $5 billion equity stake in Anthropic and the immediate rollout of the Helios rack-scale architecture,

Advanced Micro Devices Today

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

$545.23 -7.10 (-1.29%)

As of 12:36 PM Eastern

This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.

52-Week Range$149.22▼

$584.73P/E Ratio178.76

Price Target$474.05

Advanced Micro Devices is securing 2027 capacity commitments from a premier frontier model developer. By executing this agreement without diluting shareholders through warrants, management demonstrates that Advanced Micro Devices can definitively capture structural market share in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure from entrenched incumbents.

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For institutional and retail investors mapping out the next five years of data center capital expenditures, the hardware landscape is visibly fracturing. Frontier model developers and hyperscalers are actively deploying multi-chip strategies to diversify supply chains and reduce the total cost of ownership. The newly formalized Anthropic partnership serves as definitive proof of concept for the broader market, signaling that alternative computing ecosystems are ready for enterprise-scale deployment.

Electrifying Balance Sheets: The No-Warrant WinThe structure of the $5 billion capital injection into Anthropic reveals deep confidence from Advanced Micro Devices management. Structured as direct equity tied to specific deployment milestones, the agreement notably lacks warrants.

In previous capacity agreements negotiated between hyperscalers and frontier artificial intelligence laboratories, warrants were frequently utilized, eventually leading to equity dilution for the hardware providers' shareholders. Avoiding that structure maintains balance sheet integrity and indicates that both entities view the underlying Anthropic valuation as highly defensible.

Anthropic will integrate up to two gigawatts of Advanced Micro Devices Instinct MI450 Series GPUs, specifically the MI455X, utilizing the new Helios rack-scale architecture. The initial one-gigawatt capacity is slated for deployment in the first half of 2027.

Building a one-gigawatt data center requires billions in upfront capital, stringent site readiness, and extensive power-delivery planning. Procuring enough electricity to run a one-gigawatt site is equivalent to powering a mid-sized city, often requiring dedicated nuclear or substantial renewable energy infrastructure. Converting a single customer commitment into a multi-year hardware pipeline anchors Advanced Micro Devices' forward earnings projections.

The partnership also addresses the most persistent friction point in the semiconductor sector: software integration. Historically, NVIDIA NASDAQ: NVDA maintained an iron grip on developers through its proprietary CUDA software platform.

To dismantle that moat, Anthropic is explicitly integrating Claude models to accelerate the development of the open-source ROCm software ecosystem. Using advanced natural language processing to debug, optimize, and write hardware-level code essentially automates the software catch-up process, making alternative hardware far more accessible to enterprise engineering teams seeking to avoid vendor lock-in.

31 TB of Compute Power UnleashedLive data from the Advancing AI 2026 event in San Francisco provides the technical foundation for these financial commitments. The broader technology market is shifting away from buying individual chips toward procuring fully integrated rack-scale solutions. The newly unveiled Helios architecture directly challenges competing server racks, packing 72 Instinct MI455X GPUs per rack alongside 6th Gen EPYC Venice CPUs and Pensando networking infrastructure.

Memory capacity dictates the efficiency of frontier artificial intelligence models. The Helios system delivers up to 31 TB of HBM4 memory, granting a roughly 50% memory capacity advantage over competing hardware systems. For frontier model inference, memory bandwidth is the primary operational bottleneck. High Bandwidth Memory represents one of the most expensive components on the server bill of materials. A higher memory capacity allows operators to process larger model parameters on fewer racks, drastically lowering the total cost of ownership and reducing facility power constraints. Optimizing this data transfer rate also drives higher gross margins over time.

Hyperscalers are taking notice of this efficiency gap. Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ: MSFT is committed to deploying the Helios Rackscale Solution across Azure data centers beginning in the second half of 2026. By utilizing open-standard networking and avoiding proprietary interconnect lock-ins, data center operators maintain infrastructure flexibility. This dynamic forces a highly competitive pricing environment, ensuring that broad enterprise demand remains elevated even as individual chip performance plateaus.

Amping Up Forward Estimates and Valuation ModelsThe fundamentals support the aggressive 158% year-to-date run, bringing Advanced Micro Devices' shares near $548 and a market capitalization nearing $900 billion. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is lofty at 181.09, but aggressive forward earnings expectations compress the forward price-to-earnings ratio to a more digestible 88.37. A price-to-earnings growth ratio of 1.58 balances the steep multiple against anticipated profitability trajectories. Securing a 1.58 PEG ratio on a capital-intensive hardware company is relatively rare, suggesting the market expects software-like revenue durability over the coming quarters.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Price Chart for Thursday, July, 23, 2026

Wall Street is actively adjusting financial models ahead of the upcoming Aug. 4 earnings report. Management previously guided for $11.2 billion in second-quarter revenue, representing a 46% year-over-year increase. Upward analyst revisions continue flowing in, with institutional desks bumping second-quarter earnings per share forecasts to $1.47. Heavy momentum relies on expanding data center margins to offset the cyclical volatility inherent in legacy consumer personal computing markets.

Geopolitical variables and execution risks remain real threats to multiple expansion. Securing longer-term central processing unit deals in China provides a baseline of revenue stability, offering a necessary buffer against potential tightening of export controls. The board of directors also authorized a $6 billion share repurchase program in May 2025, enabling the reacquisition of up to 3.1% of the outstanding float. Deploying capital for buybacks during a heavy infrastructure build-out signals that Advanced Micro Devices generates enough free cash flow to reward shareholders while simultaneously funding robust research and development.

Grounding Your Portfolio Before the Next SparkValuations approaching a $1 trillion market capitalization require flawless execution. Any delays in site readiness, power delivery, or Helios production milestones heading into the 2027 deployment targets could trigger severe multiple compression.

Investors eyeing the semiconductor sector face a rapidly evolving landscape in which Intel NASDAQ: INTC continues to attempt a volatile recovery, while the dominant incumbent maintains premium pricing. The strategic alignment with Anthropic, paired with multi-gigawatt hardware commitments, establishes a durable secondary ecosystem in the artificial intelligence infrastructure space. Those seeking exposure to the physical build-out of frontier compute capacity may want to monitor institutional inflows and margin expansion metrics following the upcoming August earnings release.

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CANTON, Ohio--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Alignment Engine, a leading innovator in AI infrastructure and scalable machine learning solutions, today confirmed its commitment to deploy the AMD Helios rackscale solution, powered by AMD Instinct™ MI455X GPUs, at its Ohio data center beginning in 2027. The deployment was selected in large part for its engineered approach to power and cooling efficiency — a priority Alignment says is central to building AI infrastructure that is good for customers and good for.

The stock looks cheap, but what if AI is a bubble that's about to burst?

After reaching an important support level, Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) could be a good stock pick from a technical perspective. NVDA surpassed resistance at the 50-day moving average, suggesting a short-term bullish trend.

The 50-day simple moving average, which is one of three major moving averages, is widely used by traders and analysts to establish support and resistance levels for a range of securities. Because it's the first sign of an up or down trend, the 50-day is considered to be more important.

Over the past four weeks, NVDA has gained 6.6%. The company is currently ranked a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), another strong indication the stock could move even higher.

Once investors consider NVDA's positive earnings estimate revisions, the bullish case only solidifies. No estimate has gone lower in the past two months for the current fiscal year, compared to 6 higher, and the consensus estimate has increased as well.

With a winning combination of earnings estimate revisions and hitting a key technical level, investors should keep their eye on NVDA for more gains in the near future.

Nebius Group (NBIS) shares climbed 4% on Thursday after the AI cloud company said it had brought online and begun validating its first full Nvidia Vera Rubin NV

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Five of the Magnificent Seven have grown crowded, expensive, or exposed to narratives that no longer justify their premium. Two still screen as high-quality holdings on our framework. Below are our 24/7 Wall St. price targets for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), the two Mag7 names our proprietary model rates as clear buys heading into the back half of 2026.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Apple NVIDIA Current Price $325.89 $212.06 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $361.72 $260.73 Upside 11.0% 22.95% Recommendation BUY BUY Confidence 90% 90% How the Two Have Traded Into July Apple has been the momentum trade of 2026, gaining 20.1% year to date and 52.61% over the past year. On July 20, Apple briefly overtook NVIDIA as the world’s most valuable company, a symbolic moment driven by investor rotation toward capital-efficient AI strategies. The fundamentals back the move: fiscal Q2 revenue of $111.18 billion grew 16.6% and EPS of $2.01 topped estimates for the eighth straight quarter.

NVIDIA has consolidated, up 13.84% YTD and sitting 28% below its 52-week high of $236.26. Yet Q1 FY27 delivered revenue of $81.62 billion (+85% YoY) and Data Center revenue of $75.25 billion. CEO Jensen Huang called the AI factory buildout “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.”

The Bull Case for Both Apple bulls point to the $30 billion+ Broadcom chip deal, the $100 billion new buyback, and 2.5 billion+ active devices that turn every Services release into recurring cash. If Siri’s AI refresh and China stabilization hit, our bull case takes AAPL to $378.01. Morgan Stanley raised the firm’s price target on Apple to $364 from $360 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.

NVIDIA bulls have 58 buy or strong-buy ratings against just one sell, a Street target of $302.31, and $119 billion in total supply commitments. Our NVDA bull case reaches $302.10.

What Could Go Wrong Apple trades at a forward P/E near 34x, and its OpenAI trade-secret lawsuit plus tariff exposure could compress the multiple. Our bear case: $307.39.

NVIDIA faces the loudest bear thesis on Reddit right now, with a 4,220-upvote wallstreetbets thread warning that “34% of the S&P is 10 stocks making the same bet.” Add China Data Center exclusions and AI capex digestion, and NVDA’s bear case sits at $226.75. Counterfactual: NVIDIA’s PEG of 0.56 suggests earnings growth is outrunning valuation.

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How They Compare to Microsoft The natural Mag7 benchmark is Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), which trades at a P/E near 28x with an AI run rate above $37 billion growing 123% YoY. Microsoft is cheaper than Apple on earnings and grows AI faster, but its Q3 revenue growth of 18.3% trails NVIDIA’s 85%.

On PEG, NVIDIA’s 0.56 makes both AAPL (PEG 2.63) and MSFT look expensive relative to growth. That contrast is exactly why our model gives NVDA the larger upside and still rates AAPL a buy on quality.

The Bottom Line: Model Favors NVIDIA on Higher Upside Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is $361.72 on Apple and $260.73 on NVIDIA, both buy, both 90% confidence. The model favors NVIDIA more heavily here. The setup pairs a 28% drawdown with 85% revenue growth, and PEG under 1 rarely stays that low.

The model frames Apple as attractive on pullbacks toward $300 and NVIDIA as compelling at current levels. The setup would weaken if AI capex commitments start slipping or if China exposure widens.

Apple and NVIDIA Price Prediction 2026-2030 Year AAPL Target NVDA Target 2026 $361.72 $260.73 2027 $390 $298 2028 $418 $335 2029 $446 $365 2030 $473 $393 These projections assume Apple continues Services acceleration and NVIDIA sustains Data Center growth. Major AI capex resets or China policy shocks would push both toward bear-case levels.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

For the quarter ended June 2026, American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) reported revenue of $16.74 billion, up 16.3% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.15, compared to $0.95 in the year-ago quarter.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of +0.22% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.7 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.03, the EPS surprise was +400%.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.

Here is how American Airlines performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

Operating cost per ASM excluding net special items and fuel - Total: 13.93 cents versus the four-analyst average estimate of 13.99 cents.Operating cost per ASM excluding net special items - Total: 19.89 cents versus the four-analyst average estimate of 20.14 cents.Passenger load factor (percent) - Total: 83.2% versus 84.9% estimated by four analysts on average.Average aircraft fuel price including related taxes - Total: 4.05 $/gal versus 4.12 $/gal estimated by four analysts on average.Passenger revenue per ASM - Total: 18.59 cents versus 18.75 cents estimated by four analysts on average.Total revenue per ASM - Total: 20.45 cents compared to the 20.44 cents average estimate based on four analysts.Available seat miles - Total: 81.84 billion versus the four-analyst average estimate of 81.56 billion.Yield - Total: 22.33 cents versus 22.07 cents estimated by three analysts on average.Fuel consumption - Total: 1,204.00 MGal versus 1,223.11 MGal estimated by three analysts on average.Revenue- Passenger: $15.21 billion versus $15.29 billion estimated by five analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +15.9% change.Revenue- Other: $1.25 billion versus $1.2 billion estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +18% change.Revenue- Cargo: $273 million versus $219.72 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +29.4% change.View all Key Company Metrics for American Airlines here>>>

Shares of American Airlines have returned -15.2% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), indicating that it could outperform the broader market in the near term.

Key Takeaways T tied growth and operating leverage to fiber, wireless convergence and a shrinking copper footprint.Advanced Connectivity revenue rose 5.1% as T posted strong phone, fiber and fixed wireless additions.T kept 2026 EPS and cash flow targets intact while raising planned buybacks to about $10 billion. AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) used its second-quarter call to argue that its investment cycle is starting to show up in both growth and operating leverage. Management’s main message was that fiber, wireless convergence and a shrinking copper footprint are now reinforcing one another.

That framing mattered more than the quarterly beat itself. T reported adjusted EPS of $0.65, ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.59, while revenue of $31.56 billion came in slightly below the $32.04 billion consensus.

AT&T Leans on ConvergenceChief executive officer John Stankey said the quarter validated AT&T’s push to build more high-value converged customers across fiber, fixed wireless and postpaid phones. He pointed to more than 1 million advanced connectivity subscriber additions and a record quarter for combined fiber and fixed wireless net adds.

The company said 42.5% of advanced home internet customers also take AT&T wireless, a figure management framed as evidence that the convergence model is improving lifetime value and churn.
That strategy is also shaping how T thinks about product economics. Stankey said management is less focused on maximizing stand-alone ARPU by product and more focused on total revenue per customer account.

T Sees Margin Upside in ScaleChief financial officer Pascal Desroches said second-quarter service revenue rose 2.7% year over year and adjusted EBITDA increased 5.2%, lifting adjusted EBITDA margin by 110 basis points to 39.1%. Management tied that improvement to scale in fiber and 5G, lower legacy costs and transformation savings.
Within Advanced Connectivity, service revenue rose 5.1% and EBITDA climbed 8.0%. The segment posted 432,000 postpaid phone net adds, 367,000 fiber net adds and 279,000 fixed wireless net adds.

T also said it remains on track to deliver $4 billion of consolidated annual cost savings by the end of 2028. That helped explain why management spent more time on operating leverage than on the headline revenue shortfall versus consensus.

AT&T Pushes Fiber Expansion HarderManagement repeatedly returned to fiber buildout as the core of the longer-term story. The company added more than 1 million total consumer and business locations reached with fiber in the quarter, ending at 38.6 million and reiterating its target to top 40 million by year-end 2026.

Stankey said 2026 will be AT&T’s largest year ever for fiber expansion, including more than 4 million acquired Lumen locations. In Q&A, he said the company is nearing the back end of market-by-market conversion work in the Lumen footprint and expects another step-up in volume as branding and systems conversion are completed.

Desroches added that advanced home internet revenue grew more than 27% year over year, though fiber ARPU was down 1.3% because Lumen subscribers came over at lower ARPUs. Excluding the acquired footprint, fiber ARPU was about flat.

T Keeps Full-Year Targets IntactAT&T reiterated its full-year 2026 outlook, including adjusted EPS of $2.25 to $2.35, free cash flow of at least $18 billion and capital investment of $23 billion to $24 billion. The company also maintained its multi-year targets through 2028.
Desroches said second-quarter free cash flow of $4.7 billion exceeded the company’s own guidance of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion. He added that third-quarter free cash flow should be roughly stable year over year, with stronger growth expected in the fourth quarter.

On capital returns, management raised its planned 2026 repurchases to about $10 billion from $8 billion previously. That sharper buyback stance was one of the clearest changes in tone on the call.

AT&T Uses Q&A to Sharpen StrategyQuestions from Morgan Stanley, UBS and BNP Paribas pushed management on pricing, fiber monetization and the trade-off between broadband and wireless growth. Stankey’s answers were notably direct: he said T intends to be aggressive across the fiber price continuum, especially when fiber can be bundled with wireless to improve account economics.

A New Street Research analyst also asked whether management’s comments about solving broadband corner cases hinted at more M&A. Stankey rejected that reading and instead pointed to satellite-enabled coverage extensions, including work tied to AST SpaceMobile, as a way to cover the last portion of customer connectivity needs.

Another recurring theme in Q&A was the copper shutdown. Stankey said AT&T now has approval to discontinue legacy services in more than 30% of its wire centers by late 2026, reinforcing the view that legacy cost removal is becoming more tangible.

T Leaves Investors With a Clearer PostureThe overall tone was confident and more expansive than a standard quarterly update. Management argued that stronger growth, higher margins and faster buybacks are all emerging from the same strategic base: denser fiber, better wireless economics and a more deliberate retreat from legacy infrastructure.

That does not make the quarter a simple recap of subscriber gains. It leaves investors with a clearer picture of what T wants to optimize over the next several years: converged account growth, targeted network density and cash returns without backing away from fiber investment.

Zacks Signals Stay Mixed for TT currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), alongside a Value Score of A, Growth Score of D, Momentum Score of A, and VGM Score  of B. Under the Zacks framework, a Rank #3 can still be held, and stronger style grades are more favorable than weaker ones, but the most attractive combinations are typically Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy) paired with A or B Style Scores. You can see the the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

That leaves a mixed but not unfavorable signal set. The strong Value, Momentum and VGM grades compare well with the weak Growth Score, while the Zacks Rank #3 points to a more balanced near-term setup than a clear outperform call. As always, that rank can change as earnings estimate revisions adjust after the quarter.

Key Takeaways T beats second-quarter earnings estimates as profitability and free cash flow improved.Low valuation multiples and planned shareholder returns support AT&T's appeal to value investors.High debt, rising leverage and $23B-$24B in 2026 capital spending keep AT&T's thesis balanced. AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) has a clearer investment case after its latest earnings beat, but the setup is not a simple value call. The company is generating cash, improving profitability and trading at low valuation multiples.

The question is whether that discount reflects upside potential or the market’s caution about leverage, capital spending and uneven growth.

T Earnings Beat Helps the Bull CaseAT&T reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 65 cents per share, up 20.4% year over year and above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 59 cents by 10.2%. Revenues rose 2.3% to $31.56 billion, but missed the consensus mark of $32.04 billion by 1.5%.

The earnings beat still helps the bullish case because profitability moved in the right direction. Consolidated operating income increased 8.3% year over year, adjusted EBITDA rose 5.2% and the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 39.1% from 38%.

Free cash flow also improved, rising 6.3% to $4.67 billion despite higher capital expenditures. That matters for a company that must fund network investment, dividends and buybacks while keeping leverage under control.

AT&T Valuation Looks Cheap but Not Clear-CutAT&T’s valuation is the strongest part of the investment debate. The stock trades at 7.5X trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA, well below 22.0X for the Zacks sub-industry, 20.6X for the Zacks sector and 18.5X for the S&P 500.

The company’s 6- to 12-month price target stands at $26, compared with a stock price of $23.04 as of July 22, 2026. The shares also trade at 10.5X current fiscal-year earnings, which keeps the valuation case anchored in modest expectations rather than aggressive growth assumptions.

Low multiples can support a recovery if AT&T continues to convert fiber and wireless momentum into earnings and cash flow. They can also reflect skepticism about long-term growth quality, especially with legacy services declining and capital needs remaining high.

T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS - Free Report) is a relevant comparison because it competes for the same U.S. wireless customers and gives investors another benchmark for subscriber growth. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) is another natural reference point for income-oriented telecom investors, given its similar focus on wireless and broadband connectivity.

T Shareholder Returns Add AppealAT&T’s cash-return profile remains a key attraction. The company has an annualized dividend of $1.11 per share, with a dividend yield of 4.8%.

Management also reiterated plans to return more than $45 billion to shareholders during 2026 to 2028 through dividends and share repurchases. That framework gives income-focused investors a clearer line of sight than a valuation argument alone.

The board authorized an additional $10 billion of common stock repurchases in January 2026. AT&T expects to repurchase about $10 billion of stock in 2026 while maintaining its current dividend.

AT&T Debt and Spending Temper the ThesisThe counterargument starts with the balance sheet. AT&T ended the second quarter of 2026 with net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA of 2.68X, total debt of $144 billion and cash and equivalents of $17.6 billion.

Leverage is expected to rise to about 3.2X after the planned EchoStar spectrum acquisition, before returning to the 2.5X range within about three years. That path depends on steady execution, cash generation and disciplined spending.

The company also expects annual capital investment of $23 billion to $24 billion in 2026. Buybacks and dividends look more attractive when operating trends hold, but they can tighten financial flexibility if revenue growth softens or network spending remains elevated.

What T’s Mixed Signals Mean for InvestorsThe bottom line is that AT&T looks more attractive for value and income investors than for buyers seeking a clean growth story. Earnings execution, free cash flow and discounted valuation support the stock, while leverage, capital intensity and mixed growth trends keep the thesis balanced.

T currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). That rank points to a more neutral near-term setup rather than a high-conviction buy signal.

The Style Scores sharpen the distinction. AT&T has a Value Score of A, Growth Score of D, Momentum Score of F and VGM Score of C. The Value Score supports the case for discounted valuation, but weaker Growth and Momentum scores suggest investors may want stronger expansion and estimate-revision trends before taking a more aggressive stance.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Wall Street is worried about Netflix's new shows. Its old ones are its secret weapon.

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Chief Correspondent covering media and technology

Netflix gets lots of attention for new seasons of hit series like "Bridgerton." But those shows aren't what drives most viewing on the service. Liam Daniel/Netflix Wall Street worries that Netflix has an engagement problem. Netflix says it's doing fine, actually.

Wall Street worriers base their fears, in part, on the viewership data Netflix periodically releases — data Netflix says it's going to give out less frequently now. But you can also look at that same data and find reasons to be more optimistic about Netflix's prospects.

So here's a pro-Netflix story, expressed in chart form, courtesy of MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman:

Robert Fishman/MoffettNathanson It also requires some explanation. What Fishman is pointing out is a basic-but-important idea to keep in mind about Netflix-created shows and movies: They get a ton of their viewership in the first few days and weeks they're released. But then they get a ton of viewership over time, too.

So this chart is showing you that in the first half of 2026, more than half of the viewership in Netflix originals was generated by stuff released before the summer of 2025.

That is: Yes, Netflix viewers watched a ton of the new "Bridgerton" season last spring. But they also watched, for instance, lots of old seasons of "Stranger Things" — a show that debuted in 2016. And a lot of "Gabby's Dollhouse," which debuted in 2021. They also spent meaningful time with a Jeffrey Epstein documentary that originally aired in 2020.

Equally important: While there has rightfully been a lot of recent attention on the performance of Netflix's highest-profile shows, Fishman also points out that those shows only account for a slice of Netflix viewing. In the first half of 2026, the top 20 Netflix series accounted for just 14% of total engagement — a ratio that's been pretty consistent for years. Which means that most people are spending most of their Netflix time watching something other than its biggest hits.

"Net-net, while hits remain important, it is really the longer tail titles that drive the vast majority of engagement on Netflix," Fishman writes.

The "long tail" is a very old concept that has taken some beatings over the years. But in Netflix's case, it is bearing out: In an on-demand internet world, lots of people will decide to consume the same movies, shows, songs, whatever. But at the same time, lots of people will seek out niche stuff. And if you add all those niches up, they amount to a very big number.

The long tail doesn't fully answer the problem Netflix bears are highlighting: If your most popular new stuff isn't performing as well as your most popular stuff used to perform, you can't simply dismiss that by saying it doesn't really matter since your old stuff is still popular.

And arguing that not all engagement is the same, anyway — something Netflix has been saying recently — won't make the concern go away, either.

What investors would like — as would Netflix — are numbers showing that Netflix's biggest shows are getting more popular.

Perhaps Netflix won't be able to figure out how to make that happen. The law of large numbers is a real thing, and Netflix now has an astonishing 325 million subscribers. Each new one will be harder to get, which is why the company is focused on extracting more value from each subscriber it does have, via tactics like price hikes and its newish ad business.

That size helps explain why Netflix made a swing-for-the-fences bid for (much of) Warner Bros. Discovery: If you're so big that growth is harder to generate organically, maybe you buy some.

The good news for Netflix is that while they figure that out, they have a good fallback position: A service so large that lots of people will find something to watch, and which keeps them subscribing month after month.

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Peter Kafka You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.

Peter covers media and technology for Business Insider; previously he has worked at Vox, Recode, AllThingsD, and Forbes. He was also the first hire at Silicon Alley Insider, Business Insider's predecessor. 

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Analysts on Wall Street project that Visa (V - Free Report) will announce quarterly earnings of $3.23 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 8.4% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $11.37 billion, increasing 11.8% from the same quarter last year.

Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted upward by 0.4% to its current level. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projections during this period.

Before a company reveals its earnings, it is vital to take into account any changes in earnings projections. These revisions play a pivotal role in predicting the possible reactions of investors toward the stock. Multiple empirical studies have consistently shown a strong association between trends in earnings estimates and the short-term price movements of a stock.

While investors typically rely on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to gauge how the business may have fared during the quarter, examining analysts' projections for some of the company's key metrics often helps gain a deeper insight.

That said, let's delve into the average estimates of some Visa metrics that Wall Street analysts commonly model and monitor.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenues- Service revenue' will reach $4.85 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +12%.

The consensus among analysts is that 'Revenues- Data processing revenue' will reach $5.86 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +13.6%.

Analysts forecast 'Revenues- Other revenue' to reach $1.31 billion. The estimate points to a change of +27.5% from the year-ago quarter.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Revenues- International transaction revenue' at $3.92 billion. The estimate suggests a change of +7.9% year over year.

The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'End of Period Connections - Total transactions' will likely reach 71.46 billion. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 65.44 billion.

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Payments volume - Total' should arrive at $3934.73 billion. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $3618.00 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts predict that the 'Total volume' will reach $4557.96 billion. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $4250.00 billion.

Analysts expect 'Payments volume - Asia pacific' to come in at $530.21 billion. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $509.00 billion.

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Payments volume - Canada' reaching $116.57 billion. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $110.00 billion.

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Payments volume - U.S.' should come in at $1895.31 billion. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $1766.00 billion in the same quarter last year.

The consensus estimate for 'Payments volume - CEMEA' stands at $246.25 billion. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $219.00 billion.

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Payments volume - Europe' of $868.35 billion. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $774.00 billion.

View all Key Company Metrics for Visa here>>>

Over the past month, shares of Visa have returned +6.4% versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change. Currently, V carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggesting that it may outperform. the overall market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

Key Takeaways JNJ beat Q2 earnings and sales estimates, driven by strength in Tremfya, Darzalex and other key drugs.JNJ raised its 2026 outlook as it advances new launches, FDA filings and eyes the Firefly Bio acquisition. ETFs like IHE offer exposure to Johnson & Johnson for investors seeking diversified healthcare access. Medtech giant Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2026 results, surpassing Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The quarterly performance was primarily driven by strong growth in the immunology drug Tremfya and cancer blockbuster Darzalex. 

Despite reporting such an impressive quarterly performance, this drugmaker slipped 1.5% at the bourses following the earnings announcement. This dip, largely attributed to a notable sales miss in its MedTech division and a 2% slump in its Cardiovascular sales, was short-lived, as the stock regained its balance the following day, gaining 1.2%.

Notably, JNJ has gained 3.5% since reporting its second-quarter results a week ago. The stock is now up more than 20% year to date, comfortably outperforming the S&P 500's 9.3% return.

Against this backdrop, for investors looking to capitalize on JNJ's raised earnings outlook for the year, backed by its dominant position in the Pharma and MedTech industries, healthcare exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a lower-risk entry point to gain exposure to this healthcare giant before the next major rally, particularly for those seeking to avoid single-stock idiosyncratic risk. 

But before suggesting a few such healthcare ETFs that deserve a place in your portfolio, let us take a look at JNJ's overall second-quarter performance.

A Brief Look at JNJ's Q2 ResultsJNJ's second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $2.90 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.1%, while sales outpaced the consensus mark by 0.5%. 

The combination of TALVEY and DARZALEX delivered deep and durable responses with more than 80% of patients progression-free at 2 years and overall survival up to 89%, as per the second-quarter data.

In solid tumors, JNJ continued to see strong performance from ERLEADA and RYBREVANT. In bladder cancer, nearly one in three eligible patients started on an INLEXZO regimen and new patient insertions grew approximately 75% in the second quarter versus the prior quarter. 

In Immunology, JNJ’s TREMFYA remained the fastest-growing advanced therapy in both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, delivering exceptional overall sales growth of 71%. In Neuroscience, both SPRAVATO and CAPLYTA delivered strong performance in the second quarter, with CAPLYTA's new patient starts surging 122% year over year.

In Cardiovascular, VARIPULSE, JNJ’s pulsed-field ablation platform for atrial fibrillation, showed strong momentum with more than 85,000 patients now treated worldwide.  

JNJ debuted its CARTOSOUND SONATA, bringing new AI-powered imaging and mapping capabilities to electrophysiology. The company also received FDA authorization for its dual-energy THERMOCOOL SMARTTOUCH SF platform, which integrates pulsed-field and radiofrequency energy in a single system to give physicians greater flexibility in tailoring ablation treatments for patients.

In Circulatory Restoration, JNJ’s global launch of Shockwave C2 Aero expanded the healthcare giant’s ability to treat more complex coronary disease and broadened the reach of its intravascular lithotripsy platform. 

J&J's management expects to receive FDA regulatory approval for IMAAVY as the first-ever treatment for patients with warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia, a rare and serious autoantibody disease, in the second half of 2026.

The company also projects FDA approval for its OTTAVA robotic surgical system and the EMEA launch of ETHICON 4000 this year. 
JNJ’s planned acquisition of Firefly Bio, expected to be closed in the third quarter of 2026, should add a proprietary platform designed to target KRAS-driven solid tumors, which are typically more difficult to treat, thereby further diversifying the company’s oncology pipeline.  

Market Reaction Post Q2 EarningsFollowing J&J's upbeat Q2 results, Bernstein raised its price target for the pharma giant to $261 from $251 while maintaining a Market Perform rating, citing solid underlying medical technology trends to drive the stock's performance (as cited in Investing.com).

JNJ-Heavy ETFs to BuyiShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF (IHE - Free Report)   

This fund, with net assets worth $1.44 billion, provides exposure to 56 U.S. domestic drug manufacturers and vaccine producers. Of these, Johnson and Johnson takes the first spot, accounting for a 21.72% share. 

IHE has rallied 18.7% year to date and charges 38 basis points (bps) in fees. IHE holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and traded at a volume of 0.13 million shares in the last trading session.  

State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV - Free Report)   

This fund, with assets under management (AUM) of $41.69 billion, provides exposure to 60 companies across pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, health care equipment and supplies, health care providers and services, life sciences tools and services, and health care technology industries. Of these, Johnson and Johnson takes the second spot, accounting for a 10.42% share. 

XLV has risen 3% year to date and charges 8 bps in fees. It traded in a heavy volume of around 5.60 million shares in the last trading session. XLV sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).   

Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT - Free Report)  

This fund, with net assets worth $20.4 billion, provides exposure to 423 companies that manufacture health care equipment and supplies or that provide health care-related services, and companies that are primarily involved in the research, development, production, and marketing of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology products. Of these, Johnson and Johnson takes the second spot, accounting for an 8.87% share.

VHT has risen 4.2% year to date and charges 9 bps in fees. It traded in a volume of around 0.28 million shares in the last trading session. VHT sports a Zacks Rank #1.
 

The market expects Altria (MO - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 30, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis owner of Philip Morris USA, the nation's largest cigarette maker is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.50 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +4.2%.

Revenues are expected to be $5.36 billion, up 1.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.33% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Altria?For Altria, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -1.34%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Altria will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Altria would post earnings of $1.24 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.32, delivering a surprise of +6.45%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Altria doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The new CEO has shown a willingness to go in his own direction, but you shouldn't necessarily follow blindly.

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When the CEOs and the Retiree Live in Different Economies JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM | JPM Price Prediction)’s Jamie Dimon told investors that the U.S. economy has shown “notable resiliency this year, with stronger business investment and hiring.” Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)’s David Solomon, speaking on CNBC, called the economy “well positioned” to shoulder AI-driven volatility. The data backs them up. Corporate profits hit $4.43 trillion in Q1 2026, up 13% from a year earlier.

Now picture a 72-year-old widow in Ohio. Her income is a Social Security check that lands the same Wednesday each month, plus a modest IRA she tries not to touch. Her grocery bill went up. Her Medicare premium went up. Gas at the pump today is nearing $4 a gallon once again after touching on $4.50 back in May. When she reads that hiring is strong, she nods. It doesn’t change her deposit.

On retirement forums this frustration comes up routinely. One member recently asked why every headline says the economy is booming while her budget feels thinner every quarter. The answer is structural, and it’s worth understanding before making any financial move.

The One Thing to Understand About Your Check Social Security is a fixed benefit. Once you claim, the only thing that changes it is the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). For 2026 that bump was 2.8%, set by a formula tied to a specific inflation index measured over Q3 of the prior year.

Nothing else moves the number. Not GDP growth. Not a hiring surge. Not record profits at the banks. If a 72-year-old is receiving the roughly $20,000 to $30,000 a year that the typical retiree collects, that check is the check, adjusted once a year in January.

That is the structural disconnect. Wages rise when labor markets tighten. Corporate profits rise when business investment picks up. Home equity increases when housing appreciates. Social Security does none of those things. It is designed to replace roughly 40% of preretirement income for the average worker and to hold that purchasing power steady, not to grow with the economy.

If you expected a boom to lift your check, it won’t. If you expected a downturn to cut it, it won’t do that either. The floor is the floor.

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Where a Retiree Can Actually Capture the Strength A fixed-income retiree has two practical channels into the growth story.

The first is any market exposure held outside Social Security. A traditional IRA, a Roth, or a taxable brokerage account participates in corporate earnings the same way a working investor’s account does. When profits grow 13% year over year, that shows up in equity prices over time. Keeping some age-appropriate stock exposure, even in retirement, is how a retiree stays connected to the economy Dimon and Solomon are describing.

The second is yield on safe savings. The FDIC national average 12-month CD rate sits at 1.65%, which is the bank branch average. Top online banks and Treasury bills pay meaningfully more. A 3-month T-bill yields 3.89% and a 1-year bill yields 4.12%. On $50,000 laddered across those maturities, the difference between a branch CD and a Treasury ladder is real grocery money each year, backed by the federal government.

For investors weighing how these levers fit against the claiming decision itself, our team put together a walk-through of the tradeoffs that’s worth a look.

What to Actually Do With This Two things to sit with:

Set expectations clearly. A strong economy will not raise your Social Security payment. The COLA is your only automatic raise, and it moves with a narrow inflation measure, not with wages or profits. Anyone budgeting around the idea that a good year for the economy is a good year for their check is planning for a raise that isn’t coming. Use the levers you do control. Keep a slice of savings in growth assets appropriate for your age. Move idle cash out of low-yield accounts and into a short Treasury or CD ladder while short-term rates stay above 4%. Boring moves. They also compound. Dimon and Solomon are describing a real economy. So is the widow checking her grocery receipt. Consumer sentiment is running near its lowest levels in years, which is its own kind of data point: most people do not feel the boom the boardroom is describing, and they are right not to expect it to show up in a Social Security deposit. Our retiree’s job is not to reconcile those two dynamics. It is to make sure the parts of her financial life that can catch a tailwind, the IRA, the savings, are actually positioned to catch it.

Want Up To $1,000? SoFi Is Giving New Active Invest Users Free StockLooking to grow your money but unsure where to begin? SoFi Active Invest is offering a limited-time promotion—open an account, fund it with $50 or more, and you could receive up to $1,000 in complimentary stock for Active Invest accounts.

From $0 commission trading to fractional shares and automated investing, this app is designed to simplify investing for everyone, whether you’re just starting or already experienced. Its easy to sign up and secure your bonus. 

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways BlackRock topped $15T AUM as iShares ETFs drove rapid growth across active and bond products. Active, bond and core ETFs are fueling adoption, while low fees remain a key competitive edge. Despite Vanguard's lead in U.S. ETF assets, iShares remains a global ETF giant with about 1,600 funds. BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) has crossed the $15 trillion AUM milestone, fueled in large part by the rapid growth of its Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) business. ETFs now represent more than 40% of the firm's assets, compared with 25% a decade ago, as quoted on ETF Central.

BlackRock, through its iShares brand, continues to lead the global ETF market. Its current expansion is driven by strong adoption of active ETFs, fixed-income products, and portfolio adjustments to accommodate the explosive growth of mega-cap AI and tech stocks. Investors can now access about 1,600 iShares ETFs globally -- up 50% since 2019.

Inside the Success BlackRock noted that ETFs are increasingly preferred by digital wealth investors because they provide access to both active and index investing. The company aims to shift people's mindset from saving to investing.

Today, 43 million people worldwide use iShares ETFs, and the company aims to more than double that figure to 100 million by the end of the decade.

The company expects the digital wealth market to grow into a $17 trillion industry by 2030, with ETFs playing a major role in driving this growth.

Inside the Variations of ETFsBlackRock highlighted the following categories as key ETF areas.

Core ETFs provide a cost-effective way to build long-term portfolios.

Bond ETFs offer exposure to bond markets more capably.

Active ETFs aim to generate enhanced income or downside protection through options-based strategies.

Factor ETFs have the potential to outperform market-cap benchmarks.

Precision ETFs provide access to a wide range of countries, sectors and commodities.

Investors can use iShares ETFs for growth, income, diversification, systematic investing, megatrends and thematic exposure, alternative investments, as well as sustainable and transition investing.

Any Changes in the Asset Class’s Categorization? BlackRock predicts global bond ETF assets under management (AUM) will reach $6 trillion by the end of 2030, up from $2.6 trillion in 2024, as quoted on its website. The ongoing modernization of the bond market is expected to drive this growth.

What About Fees? BlackRock has periodically cut expense ratios on its core and flagship ETFs to remain competitive against rivals like Vanguard and Charles Schwab. Earlier fee reductions brought the expense ratio of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV - Free Report) down to 0.03%, matching the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF (VOO - Free Report) expense ratio, while the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG - Free Report) expense ratio was also reduced to 0.03%.

Bottom Line While BlackRock's success is commendable, Vanguard has overtaken BlackRock to become the largest U.S. ETF issuer, ending BlackRock's roughly 20-year reign at the top. This underscores the importance of low fees in the ETF marketplace.

A mid-June article from The Daily Upside indicated that Vanguard manages around $4.39 trillion across 116 U.S.-listed funds, according to Bloomberg data, surpassing the $4.36 trillion managed by BlackRock, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

Nevertheless, BlackRock's achievement highlights the remarkable growth of the ETF industry. Some of the most popular U.S.-based iShares ETFs include IVV, iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA - Free Report) , iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG - Free Report) , AGG and iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF - Free Report) .

The upcoming report from Royal Caribbean (RCL - Free Report) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $3.97 per share, indicating a decline of 9.4% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $4.81 billion, representing an increase of 6% year over year.

Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 1.9% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this timeframe.

Prior to a company's earnings release, it is of utmost importance to factor in any revisions made to the earnings projections. These revisions serve as a critical gauge for predicting potential investor behaviors with respect to the stock. Empirical studies consistently reveal a strong link between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.

While investors usually depend on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to assess the business performance for the quarter, delving into analysts' forecasts for certain key metrics often provides a more comprehensive understanding.

Given this perspective, it's time to examine the average forecasts of specific Royal Caribbean metrics that are routinely monitored and predicted by Wall Street analysts.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenues- Onboard and other' will reach $1.45 billion. The estimate suggests a change of +8.6% year over year.

The consensus among analysts is that 'Revenues- Passenger ticket' will reach $3.36 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +5%.

Analysts forecast 'APCD (Available passenger cruise days)' to reach 13586 days. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 12942 days.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Net Yields' at $287.91 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $283.56 in the same quarter last year.

Analysts predict that the 'Occupancy Rate' will reach 110.4%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 110.3%.

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Passenger Cruise Days' should arrive at 14986 days. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 14278 days in the same quarter of the previous year.

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel per APCD' of $133.29 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $126.76 in the same quarter of the previous year.

The consensus estimate for 'Net Cruise Costs per APCD' stands at $158.70 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $148.34 .

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Passengers Carried' should come in at 2.57 million. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 2.25 million in the same quarter of the previous year.

View all Key Company Metrics for Royal Caribbean here>>>

Royal Caribbean shares have witnessed a change of -10.9% in the past month, in contrast to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% move. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), RCL is expected closely follow the overall market performance in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

HLT heads into Q2 earnings with resilient travel demand, expanding hotel openings and steady booking trends, but near-term regional headwinds remain in focus.

Buying PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL | PYPL Price Prediction) at 11 times trailing earnings while the company retires roughly 8% of its float every year makes PayPal stand out as one of the more compelling large-cap value opportunities today. PayPal operates digital payment platforms such as PayPal, Venmo, and Braintree, making money primarily by charging merchants fees for processing transactions.

The market is pricing PayPal like a melting ice cube, but the underlying payments engine is still compounding volume, and management is returning cash faster than the share price can absorb it. Additionally, Stripe and Advent International made an offer for PayPal’s business, and while the offer of $60.50 per share was rejected for being too low, there’s a potential for the business to be acquired at a substantial premium to where it trades today.

PayPal’s 11x Forward P/E Provides a Margin of Safety PYPL trades at a forward P/E of just 11 against TTM revenue of $33.73 billion and a return on equity of 25.1%. It’s a rare combination for a business to generate 25% ROE while being priced at a low-double-digit multiple. Analysts’ average price target of $61.62 implies 11.01% upside before factoring in dividends or share buybacks.

An 8% Buyback Yield Acts Like An Extra Return Driver The stock’s dividend yield of 0.74% understates what shareholders actually receive. PayPal repurchased ~100 million shares for $6.0 billion over the trailing twelve months, shrinking diluted share count from 999 million to 920 million.

Y2025 free cash flow reached $5.564 billion, and management guides to at least $6 billion in adjusted free cash flow for 2026 with another ~$6 billion in share repurchases planned.

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PayPal’s $1.5 Billion Turnaround Has Teeth New CEO Enrique Lores has committed to “at least $1.5 billion of gross run-rate savings over the next two to three years,” backed by Q1 2026 total payment volume of $463.95 billion, up 11%, and U.S. revenue growth of 9%. Venmo TPV rose 14% year over year, its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Why PayPal Looks Far Cheaper Than Visa While Visa (NYSE:V) has a more attractive underlying business than PayPal, it’s tough not to see that PYPL is valued at a low multiple. Visa trades at a forward P/E of 24, roughly double PayPal’s multiple, while paying a nearly identical 0.72% dividend yield. Visa’s EV/EBITDA of 24.54 dwarfs PayPal’s 6.7. Retirement investors get comparable dividend income at a fraction of the valuation, plus a share buyback yield Visa cannot match on a percentage-of-float basis.

PayPal’s Weak Guidance Masks a Healthy Payments Engine PayPal’s bear case rests on FY26 non-GAAP EPS guided to a low-single-digit decline to slightly positive versus $5.31. But the company’s core growth engine still looks intact, with TPV growth of 11% and transaction volume of 6.5 billion transactions, up 7%.

The near-term EPS softness reflects lower interest income on customer balances and reinvestment pressure, while underlying demand remains strong. Insiders agree: PayPal logged 59 recent insider transactions with a net buying direction.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

© JasonDoiy / iStock Unreleased via Getty Images

It’s hard to believe that a name like Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction), which gained more than 336% in a year as a part of its profoundly successful turnaround, could have more gas in the tank. The $515 billion semiconductor giant is back on the map, and while the easiest gains have already been made, I do think that the company could continue its winning ways now that its wheels are back on the tracks.

With shares now down more than 26% from those June highs, questions linger as to whether Intel deserves to fall faster than the rest of the harshly punished semiconductor names. Now that analysts expect way more from the firm after more than quadrupling in a year, questions linger as to whether the firm is poised to run itself off the expectations treadmill.

With investors expecting big things from the firm as it pulls the curtain on earnings today, Intel’s numbers may very well set the tone for the tech trade for the rest of the week. For the most part, the numbers are going to be “strong,” according to most analysts, including those at Wedbush Securities.

But a good showing might not be enough to reverse the trend as semis continue to sag and calls for profit-taking grow a bit louder. In my view, the long-term narrative has never been better, and any post-earnings plunge, I think, could be a gift for those willing to deal with the downward pressure for a shot at real long-term strength.

Intel’s yield is too impressive to ignore, and the margin implications are huge With recent reports swirling around Intel Foundry Services clocking in an astounding 85% yield on the 18A process node, perhaps lingering doubts and skepticism — which are very much warranted, in my view — surrounding Intel’s ability to catch up with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) could soon be shot down. It’s one thing to get a fab up and running with big-name clients, but it’s another to be running with a high yield on the cutting edge of semiconductor manufacturing.

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The 85% figure is 20% higher than previous quarters, marking an unbelievable leap in efficiency, one that will go straight into padding Intel’s margin. Of course, Taiwan Semiconductor remains the firm to beat, but being able to operate at such a high level to be within striking distance of the market leader, in my opinion, is a feat that warrants a big jump in the share price.

In any case, we’ll need to see how the numbers fare in the second half. If an 85% yield on 18A finds its way into the numbers, analysts might need to revisit the drawing board and raise the bar on their margin expectations. Intel has defied expectations in a massive way in the past year.

Could it really be that Intel can keep the home run hits coming? I’d say it’s likelier than not, especially in light of this latest report. At this pace, perhaps Intel stock is well-equipped to grow into its hefty multiple far faster than expected, and the bulls, like Jim Cramer, might look very smart for sticking with the name despite the explosive stock chart.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.