Well, good morning and welcome to the final week of summer 2026…..Let’s take a look at what happened at Jackson Hole.
Kevy Warsh acknowledged concerns put forth by Beth and Jeff. – Remember both of these Fed chairs started screaming that rates have to go up, because inflation is not cooperating and Kevy said – I hear you.
BUT, contrary to what some may say - he DID NOT promise a rate hike in September - let’s be clear about that - he may have opened the door, but he did not commit to a rate hike and yet traders and algo’s wasted no time running betting that he’s planning on raising rates.
Speaking at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, Warsh said:
“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”
There it is. Otherwise, we have work to do.
And what did the trader types, algo’s and the bond market hear?
Higher rates.
The 2-yr Treasury yield surged 11 bps to 4.34% – its biggest one-day move since March – as traders immediately repriced the odds of a September rate – now putting the chances of hike at 61% - that was a 25% increase over the odds prior to his speech.
But here is where it gets interesting because remember- the FED has much more direct influence over the short end than the long end - and while the 2-yr shot up, the 30-yr barely moved.
And THAT is important. Because Friday wasn’t another bond-market tantrum over debt, deficits, Treasury supply, Scotty Bessent or fiscal credibility.
It was a monetary policy repricing NOT a fiscal credibility event. He told us that he understands the inflation problem and is prepared to deal with it. He also said that financial conditions are not currently restrictive.
Yes, the 10 yr is kissing 4.7% and the 30 yr is kissing 5.2%, yes mortgage rates are a bit elevated now at 6.7%, but in his mind, they are not restrictive, which means they may not be high enough to finish the job…and THAT is what got everyone’s attention.
So, stocks lost a tiny bit of ground…the Dow down 9 pts, the S&P down 20 pts, the Nasdaq lost 140 pts, the Russell gave back 42 pts or 1.4%, the Transports lost 61 pts, the Equal Weight S&P gave up 33 pts, while the Mag 7 gained ground – adding 210 pts.
Now, the move in the Russell makes perfect sense - Small and mid-cap companies are more sensitive to financing costs, so when the 2-yr suddenly surges 11 bps and the market starts pricing in another rate hike – guess who’s going to feel it first?
The SMIDS. But let’s also keep this in perspective. The S&P lost 19 points. That’s it. Kevin Warsh stood up, reminded everyone that inflation remains above target, told us financial conditions aren’t restrictive, opened the door to another rate hike, sent the 2-yr screaming higher – and the S&P lost 0.25%.
Hardly panic. In fact, I’d argue THAT may be the more important message from Friday.
Now let’s talk about Gold — because it got punched in the face. Coming into Friday, Gold was trading around $4,630 - up sharply from the early-August lows - as gold bugs piled into the trade over concerns about inflation, fiscal discipline, geopolitical risk and instability in the bond market.
And then Kevy spoke. Yields surged, the dollar rallied and suddenly the move higher in Gold had the rug pulled right out from under it. By the end of the day, Gold had lost more than 3% - nearly $150 - to close around $4,455.
So why the vicious reaction? Because Gold got hit with a left punch and then a right punch. Higher Treasury yields (the left punch) increase the opportunity cost of owning an asset that pays you NOTHING - no dividend and no interest - while a stronger dollar (right punch) creates another headwind for gold.
And then add in the sudden repricing of Fed policy. On Thursday, traders were assigning a 31% chance of a September rate hike. After Kevy spoke, those odds jumped to 61%.
So suddenly the gold trade had to deal with a stronger dollar, higher yields AND the possibility that the Fed isn’t finished raising rates.
And so, it was a - Sell first. Ask questions later reaction.
Friday’s move took Gold down and THROUGH the $4,530 trendline and overnight the selling continued, taking us down to $4,396 before buyers showed up. Which leaves Gold sitting right on top of the next trendline.
And now the question becomes -Was Friday simply a Kevy-induced flush — or does Gold need a bigger reset? We’re about to find out…. because Kevy may have changed the interest-rate conversation, but he didn’t suddenly make the other reasons investors own Gold disappear.
The fiscal concerns haven’t disappeared. The debt and deficit haven’t disappeared. Geopolitical risk certainly hasn’t disappeared. And inflation hasn’t disappeared — in fact, that’s the whole reason Kevy is talking about potentially raising rates in the first place. So, don’t necessarily interpret Friday’s move as the end of the gold story. I’d think about it as a test.
If Gold can hold $4,370 (trendline support) and reclaim $4,530, then Friday may turn out to have been nothing more than a ‘shaking of the branches after a very strong August run. If $4,370 doesn’t hold? Then the reset may have further to go and that reset could get us right back to $4,200. Either way - after a 14% move off the August lows, Gold was due for a bit of profit taking.
Next up Oil…..it continued to hover in the $83 zone – which was about a 4% loss for the week – that move was about the continued chatter of a new diplomatic agreement with Iran that could normalize shipping thru the strait. And that actually creates another interesting dynamic for Kevy and the FED. If oil prices fall – then inflation eases – and that blows his whole inflation argument out of the water, so stayed tuned. But, not so fast……
This morning – oil is up 3.4% at $86.30 - after the US struck 2 Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island over the weekend. The Iranians returned the fire – launching missile and drone strikes on 2 US air bases in Jordan and all that does is raise the temperature in the room again and just like that – they put the risk premium back into the price of oil. 1 step forward – 2 steps back.
And by now you also heard about the massive oil deal that Trump just struck with Venezuela – the administration calling it the biggest oil deal in history – and 65 billion barrels certainly gets your attention. The U.S. gets majority control over the development of 17 Venezuelan oil fields, with an initial production target of 1.5 million barrels a day. Strategically, that’s a big deal because it gives the U.S. another potentially enormous source of crude outside the Middle East.
But let’s be clear – those 65 billion barrels aren’t sitting on a dock waiting for a tanker. Venezuela’s infrastructure is a mess and it’s going to take billions of dollars and years of investment to meaningfully increase production.
So, this could be very important for long-term US energy security – but it isn’t going to suddenly knock $20 off the price of oil tomorrow morning.
There is no eco data today – but there are some important data points later in the week.
S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI’s, ISM Prices Paid, ISM New Orders, JOLTS report, ADP employment change and Friday’s NFP report.
Earnings? PANW and Dell report Tuesday, while Broadcom reports Wednesday afternoon along with Snowflake and HPE. After Nvidia blew the doors off last week, AVGO becomes the next test of the AI infrastructure trade. Then on Thursday we hear from Zscaler and Ciena. So, while earnings season is essentially over, AI, cybersecurity and enterprise tech are not done talking yet!
European markets are mixed – the UK closed for a holiday.
US futures are all lower…Dow futures – 135 pts, the S&P’s down 25 pts, the Nasdaq down 33 pts while the Russell is lower by 8 pts. As noted, it is the last day of August and the start of a holiday week.
The 2-yr treasury yield – which exploded 11 bps higher on Friday is down about 3 bps this morning as investors reconsider whether Friday’s reaction may have gotten a little ahead of itself.
Because here’s the thing. Yes, Kevy sounded a bit hawkish. But he DID NOT say – “We’re raising rates in September.”
The market said that. And there is a difference.
I am still in the camp that the Fed does NOTHING in September – or for the rest of this year. The bond market is already doing some of the heavy lifting, and I think Kevy is perfectly fine letting it do just that.
Remember – Warsh doesn’t want to spoon-feed the market with forward guidance. He wants the DATA to do the talking.
Remember - Traders took “we have work to do” and immediately translated it into “September rate hike.”
Maybe. But Kevy didn’t say that.
And this week there is plenty of data to do the talking – so let’s see what it says before we start the histrionics.
The S&P closed Friday at 7,711 – down just 19 pts. Stocks are not panicking. The bond market is not panicking. And with summer coming to an end and volumes still light, I wouldn’t read too much into every tick.
I see 7,650-ish as near-term support, while the more important trendline support sits closer to 7,550.
And now September – historically the most difficult month of the year for stocks – is about to begin. The Fed is in play. Iran is in play. The midterms are in play.
And everyone is about to come back from the beach. So strap in.
Fettuccine e salmoneFettuccine with Nova Salmon, Baby Arugula & Brandy Cream Sauce This is one of those dishes that sounds fancy but is ridiculously easy to make. Creamy, smoky, a little peppery from the arugula and finished with just enough brandy to give the sauce some attitude.
Prep time.
20m.
Cook time.
10m.
Total time.
30m.
Serves.
4-6
Ingredients
1 lb Fettuccine.
8 oz Nova Salmon - sliced into strips.
2 Handfuls of fresh arugula.
1 large shallot - diced.
1 c heavy cream.
1/3 c Brandy.
butter.
olive oil.
Fresh grated Parmegiana.
s&p.
Preparation.
Step 1
Bring a large pot of salted water to a boil.
Step 2
Add the fettuccine and cook until al dente.
Step 3
In a large sauté pan going over medium heat. Add the butter and a splash of olive oil. Toss in the shallots and sauté until they're soft and translucent – don't brown them.
Step 4
Take the pan OFF the heat for a moment, add the brandy and then return it to the heat. Let it bubble and reduce by about half. You're cooking off the harsh alcohol while leaving that beautiful brandy flavor behind.
Step 5
Lower the heat and add the heavy cream. Let it simmer gently for a couple of minutes until it begins to thicken.
Step 6
Add the fettuccine directly to the pan and toss it in the sauce. Add a little pasta water until the sauce becomes silky and coats the pasta.
Step 7
Now add the Nova salmon and toss gently. You DO NOT want to cook the salmon to death – it's already cured and smoked. You just want the heat from the pasta and sauce to warm it through.
Step 8
Remove pan from the heat.
Step 9
Add the baby arugula and toss again. The residual heat will wilt it just enough while keeping some of that peppery bite.
Step 10
Add some freshly grated Parmigiano-Reggiano and plenty of fresh cracked black pepper. Taste it BEFORE adding salt because the Nova and the cheese are already salty.
Step 11
Serve it immediately in warmed bowls. Finish with another crack of black pepper, a little Parmigiano and a few fresh arugula leaves on top.
The British Pound (GBP) is marginally higher at around 1.3545 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair rebounds as the US Dollar corrects after a strong upside move on Friday.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 99.53. The US Dollar gained significantly on Friday, following a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where he warned of upside inflation risks. Read more...
British Pound holds losses amid geopolitical tensions, Fed tightening hopesThe British Pound (GBP) edges up on Monday but remains close to two-week lows against the US Dollar (USD). Risk aversion amid fresh hostilities between the US and Iran and rising bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might finally hike rates in September are keeping the Greenback's dips subdued at the start of the week.
Investors' appetite for risk remains frail on Monday, following reports that the US launched the first attack on Iran in about a month, targeting missile launchers on Larak Island, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were allegedly preparing rockets to place sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Read more...
British Pound bounces off over one-week low vs soft USD; upside potential seems limitedThe GBP/USD pair edges higher at the start of a new week, reversing a part of Friday's heavy losses to over a one-week trough. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and trade below mid-1.3500s during the Asian session, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from the highest level since February, touched earlier this month, has run its course.
The US Dollar (USD) pauses after Friday's strong move up to a nearly two-week high amid month-end rebalancing and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from UK Chancellor John Healey's emphasis on maintaining fiscal discipline as the top priority for Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government ahead of the Autumn Budget on October 28. Read more...
The US Dollar (USD) is down 0.3% to near 159.65 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Monday. The USD/JPY pair declines as the Japanese currency outperforms its peers on hopes of support from the United States (US)-Japan joint intervention.
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.15%-0.03%-0.26%-0.14%0.04%-0.05%-0.14%EUR0.15%0.10%-0.09%0.00%0.15%0.11%0.00%GBP0.03%-0.10%-0.19%-0.10%0.04%-0.00%-0.08%JPY0.26%0.09%0.19%0.10%0.29%0.22%0.14%CAD0.14%-0.01%0.10%-0.10%0.19%0.12%0.02%AUD-0.04%-0.15%-0.04%-0.29%-0.19%-0.06%-0.11%NZD0.05%-0.11%0.00%-0.22%-0.12%0.06%-0.08%CHF0.14%-0.01%0.08%-0.14%-0.02%0.11%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Yen intervention in focusAnalysts at Scotiabank flag that the recent “defensive price action is notable, and somewhat worrisome for policymakers at the BoJ, as well as officials at the MoF,” particularly as media reports highlight “the aggregate $96.4bn intervention effort to support the yen from July 30 to August 26.”
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington would intervene with Japan to shore up the Asia-Pacific currency, if needed. These comments came after the US and Japan jointly intervened in late July, as USD/JPY jumped to a multi-decade high near 164.00.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades lower, with investors shifting their focus to a slew of US economic data, starting with ISM Manufacturing PMI for August and the JOLTS Job Openings data for July releasing on Tuesday.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.16% lower to near 99.50.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.66. The pair holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 159.55, suggesting ongoing demand on dips.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.39 sits just below the 50 mark, hinting at consolidative conditions rather than overextended momentum, but still compatible with a gradual topside bias while price holds over the short-term EMA.
On the downside, the August 19 low at 158.05 is the key support level. Looking up, the major hurdle is the Friday high at 160.20, followed by the July 31 high at 160.88.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold (XAU/USD) steadies on Monday after opening the week lower and briefly falling below $4,400, its lowest level since August 19, during Asian trading hours. However, the metal lacks strong upside momentum as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep buyers cautious. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,454 after reaching a more than three-month high of $4,697 last week.
The metal fell about 3.20% on Friday following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets viewed Warsh’s remarks as hawkish, reviving expectations that the central bank could raise interest rates as soon as September and pushing the US Dollar (USD) and short-term US Treasury yields sharply higher.
Analysts at Rabobank point out that Warsh made clear that he is “open to further rate hikes unless underlying inflation began to improve convincingly,” underscoring that “we must be convinced that underlying inflation is moving toward our target clearly and at a sufficient pace. Otherwise, we still have work to do.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in around a 61% chance of a September rate hike, up from roughly 38% before Warsh’s speech. A higher interest-rate environment reduces the attractiveness of Gold because the metal offers no yield.
However, a modest pullback in the US Dollar and Treasury yields on Monday lends some support to bullion. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.53, easing from 99.72, its highest level since August 14. Gold is still on track to gain around 10% in August, largely driven by the US Treasury’s announcement that it would double liquidity-support buybacks of longer-dated government bonds.
Meanwhile, higher Oil prices continue to add upside risks to inflation as tensions in the Middle East intensify. Iran says it attacked US bases in Jordan and US military targets at Al Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates after US forces bombed two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island. The UAE has denied that Al Minhad Air Base was attacked. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rises around 3.5% on Monday and trades near $85.60 per barrel at the time of writing.
In the near term, expectations that the Fed's interest rates will stay higher for longer remain a key hurdle for Gold’s recovery, even as central-bank buying and geopolitical tensions provide underlying support. Upcoming US economic data will be closely watched for fresh clues about the Fed’s monetary policy path, with the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report among the key risk events this week.
Technical analysis: Momentum weakens after rejection near $4,700
XAU/USD maintains a slightly bearish near-term bias following the latest leg lower, with the metal falling back below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,529. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has eased from overbought territory to around 55, pointing to fading bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below its signal line, adding to signs of weakening upside pressure.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 100-day SMA at $4,370, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,211. A sustained break below these levels could expose the horizontal floor near $4,000. On the upside, the 200-day SMA at $4,529 acts as immediate resistance, followed by the horizontal barrier at $4,700.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EUR/USD kicked off Monday with an attempt to stabilise around 1.1587. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh returned support to the dollar with a hawkish performance at Jackson Hole. The key test now will be Friday’s US labour market report, which will show whether the case for another rate hike has sufficient backing from the economy. The US dollar has already recovered to a two-week high.
Warsh also stated that with inflation not slowing sufficiently, the regulator may need to tighten policy again. Markets now estimate the probability of a rate hike in September at approximately 57%, up from around 35% before his speech. The yield on two-year US Treasury notes climbed to 4.33%, further enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.
The main event of the week will be Friday’s August Nonfarm Payrolls report. Expectations point to an increase in employment of around 50,000, following an unexpected decline of 23,000 in July. Unemployment is projected at approximately 4.1%. Strong payrolls, combined with steady wage growth and a stable average working week, would support Warsh’s hawkish stance and may increase pressure on EUR/USD below 1.16. Weak data, on the other hand, would cast doubt on a September rate hike, lower yields, and help the euro recover.
Until Friday, markets will also monitor intermediate signals. US jobs data is due on Tuesday, followed later by private sector employment figures, jobless claims, and revised productivity statistics.
In Europe, eurozone inflation will be the main event, with expectations pointing to an acceleration to around 3.3%. A strong reading would reinforce expectations of an ECB rate hike in September and could partially offset the dollar’s support from the Fed.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market made a downward wave to 1.1567 today. A consolidation range is currently forming above this level, with a potential growth leg to 1.1597 not ruled out. Further decline to 1.1555 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is below zero and pointing strictly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the downward trend to persist.
On the H1 chart, the market completed the next downward wave to 1.1576. A consolidation range is forming above this level. A growth leg to 1.1597 is expected, followed by the beginning of a decline to 1.1533, with the prospect of the wave continuing to 1.1511. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is below the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20.
Conclusion EUR/USD has retreated to near two-week lows following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, which significantly raised market expectations for a September rate hike. The probability of a move has surged from 35% to 57%, supported by rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Markets now look to Friday’s US payrolls report as the key test for whether the economy can withstand further tightening, with a strong reading likely to push EUR/USD below 1.16. Meanwhile, eurozone inflation data will be closely watched, with a strong print potentially reinforcing ECB tightening expectations and offering some support to the euro. Technically, the pair remains bearish, with further downside towards 1.1533 and 1.1511 likely in the near term.
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Gold remains at the back foot on Monday, but bears found temporary footstep at $4400 zone (Fibo 38.2% of $3942/$4697 recovery leg / 20DMA) and consolidate after Friday’s 3.2% fall (the biggest one-day loss since June 10).
Gold was deflated by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh in Jackson Hole symposium which boosted expectations for rate hike and inflated US dollar.
Fresh escalation in the Middle East, when the US and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend, after a relatively quiet period, revived uncertainty and inflation fears that may further darken metal’s near-term outlook.
Reversal pattern is forming on daily chart after gold has registered the first weekly loss after three consecutive weeks in green, though firm break of cracked $4400 support zone is required to verify the signal (and sideline scenario of a healthy correction of $3942/$4697 upleg, before bulls regain control).
However, momentum studies on daily chart are still positively aligned and stochastic is about to enter oversold zone (MAs are in mixed setup) that may provide more headwinds to fresh bears.
Watch reaction at $4400 and $4370 (100DMA) break of which would further weaken near-term structure and increase downside risk.
Conversely, return and close above 200DMA ($4327) would revive bulls and signal a higher low.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold (XAU/USD) shows marginal gains on Monday, with price action hovering around $4.450 at the time of writing yet unable to take off from last week’s lows in the $4,400 area after depreciating more than 4% late last week. Rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in September, coupled with the resumption of hostilities in Iran, are buoying the US Dollar and weighing on precious metals.
Bullion tanked on Friday as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh conveyed an unexpectedly hawkish message at the Jackson Hole summit. Warsh urged policymakers to focus on prices, and said that the central bank has “work to do” to bring inflation to the bank’s 2% target. Investors ramped up bets of a September hike to 61% from 36% the day before, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Apart from that, the US and Iran exchanged attacks on Sunday to put an end to about one month of a tense truce. The US military attacked the Iranian island of Larak on Sunday, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were allegedly preparing missiles to place sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran responded by targeting US airbases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The risk-off reaction has underpinned support to the safe-haven US Dollar.
Technical Analysis: Bears gain confidence below the 200-day SMA
XAU/USD trades at $4,450 after an impulsive reversal on Friday that pushed price action below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,528. This is a very popular indicator for traders, and Friday's clear move below it gives fresh hope for bears.
Momentum indicators in the bearish charts show a neutral-to-negative stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.36 easing into a more neutral zone and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator drifting into negative territory, which hints at waning upside momentum and scope for further consolidation or downside probes.
Immediate support is seen at Friday's floor in the $4,400 area, followed by the August 14 low near $4,310 and the August 6 low, near $4,225. Bulls, on the other hand, are likely to be challenged at the mentioned 200-day SMA, at $4,528, and the August 27 low near $4,565 ahead of last week's highs, near $4,700.;
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Pound-Euro rate could come under pressure if Eurozone inflation accelerates and reinforces ECB rate hike bets, while Bailey may weigh on Sterling. The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate wavered between a one-week high and a one-week low last week, amid turbulent trade.
At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1664, down marginally on the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.167684 (-0.07%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.354083 (+0.05%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.159631 (+0.12%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) found some initial support on Monday after analysis from the Resolution Foundation thinktank indicated that UK productivity may have strengthened in recent years, rather than deteriorated.
With little in the way of domestic data to offer further direction, Sterling fluctuated as the week progressed.
The Pound climbed to a one-week high against the Euro on Tuesday before reversing course. A weaker-than-expected Confederation of British Industry (CBI) distributive trades survey and growing concerns over the cost of living, fuelled by rising energy bills, then dented Sterling.
As UK data remained thin for the rest of the week, the Pound continued to trade without a clear direction.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) softened slightly at the start of last week amid a lack of data and EUR’s negative correlation with the US Dollar (USD), as the latter currency crept higher.
The common currency managed to attract some support on Tuesday, after Germany’s final GDP figures for the second quarter were revised slightly higher and the latest IFO business climate index rose more than forecast.
European Central Bank (ECB) expectations helped the Euro rise against the Pound through the latter half of the week, although the currency’s gains elsewhere were limited.
ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that further interest rate hikes are likely, while the bank’s meeting minutes on Thursday reinforced this stance.
An improvement in Eurozone economic sentiment in August, published on Friday, helped the Euro stay afloat through the end of the week.
Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: Eurozone Inflation in the Spotlight Looking forward, EUR investors are likely to focus on the Eurozone’s latest preliminary consumer price index, due out on Tuesday.
The flash CPI is expected to show that headline inflation accelerated from 2.9% in July to 3.3% in August. If it prints as forecast, the Euro could strengthen as markets price in a more hawkish approach to interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank.
For the Pound, the UK’s final services PMI could provide some direction on Thursday. Confirmation of stronger activity in August may offer Sterling some support.
Attention could then turn to a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey on Friday. If the BoE chief maintains a cautious stance on the need for further interest rate hikes, the Pound could come under pressure.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Pound-Dollar could rebound if US payrolls show further labour market weakness, although resilient ISM data may keep Fed rate hike expectations alive.
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate faced notable selling pressure last week amid fresh bets the Federal Reserve will deliver an interest rate hike this month.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3661. Down around 0.7% from the start of last week’s session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.3534 (-0.46%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.158209 (-0.61%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 160.10118 (+0.50%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) wavered at the start of last week, as lingering bond and inflation jitters offset Iran sanction uncertainty.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined new US economic sanctions on Iran that would also target countries still trading with Tehran, raising concern of a fresh deterioration in relations between the US and China.
The US Dollar then began to strengthen in mid-week trade as the latest core PCE price index showed inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, underpinning bets for a rate hike later in the year.
The second half of the week was then dominated by the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium, with the US Dollar strengthening after hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh revived bets the US central bank may hike interest rates in September.
The Pound (GBP) initially held its ground last week, drawing modest support from research suggesting Britain's productivity trajectory is recovering much faster than official data indicates.
That initial resilience soon fizzled out, however. With domestic economic indicators completely dried up, Sterling was left adrift and exposed to shifting momentum across broader currency markets.
Compounding the pressure was confirmation that the UK's energy price cap will climb to a three-year high in October and concerns about how this may undermine consumer spending through the remainder of the year.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Weak Payrolls to Sink the 'Greenback'?
Turning to this week's session, there are a few high-impact US economic indicators that are set to influence the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate.
The primary focus will be on the latest non-farm payroll print, which could apply significant pressure to the 'Greenback' in the latter half of the week if there is further sign that the US labour market is cooling.
Also of note to USD investors will be the latest ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, which may be more supportive of the US Dollar if they point to continued resilience in the US private sector last month.
Back in the UK, the macroeconomic schedule remains exceptionally light. Aside from the finalised August services PMI, Sterling will have few domestic catalysts to lean on, leaving its trajectory largely at the mercy of broader market sentiment.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
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Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1590 during the early European trading hours on Monday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited as traders ramped up bets on a rate hike after hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh.
Fed Chairman said on Friday at the Jackson Hole economic symposium that the US central bank will "have work to do" if policymakers don't get the confidence they need that inflation is heading down to 2%. His hawkish comments have fuelled expectations of a September rate hike, supporting the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR).
Traders brace for the preliminary reading of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from Germany, which will be published later on Monday. Any signs of hotter inflation in Germany could lift the shared currency in the near term.
Dollar sentiment firms as Fed repricing follows Warsh’s hawkish toneStrategists at Commerzbank highlight that “the main theme on Friday was the hawkish repricing of Fed expectations” in the wake of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. They note that Warsh warned inflation is “not meaningfully slowing” and reaffirmed that the Fed’s 2% inflation target is “firm and fixed,” while stressing that policymakers have “work to do” if they cannot be confident that underlying inflation is returning toward the target.
Warsh flags unfinished inflation fight, keeps Dollar bulls alertFed Chair Warsh delivered a notably more hawkish-leaning tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7.4 versus a 6.5 historical average, underscoring heightened concern about price stability despite solid growth and stable labor markets. The insistence that the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to objective or “we have work to do,” combined with comments that financial conditions are not restrictive and credit markets show few signs of policy restraint, points to a bias toward further tightening or a prolonged restrictive stance even as headline inflation data have improved but underlying trends are judged largely unchanged. Warsh’s emphasis that the Fed’s 2% PCE target is “firm and fixed” and that the predominant focus should be on prices reinforces a message that the inflation battle is not yet convincingly won, a backdrop that tends to support the Dollar on dips.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated 129.70, signaling that the aggregate policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory despite the July decision to wait. The combination of a high index level and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests that markets will continue to price a vigilant Fed stance, with the Dollar likely to stay underpinned as long as inflation progress is viewed as incomplete.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is well-supported above the key 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD holds a mildly bullish near-term tone as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), while pressing just under the 20-day Bollinger SMA, which acts as an immediate pivot. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.8 sits slightly above its neutral line, hinting that buyers retain a modest advantage without reaching overbought conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the August 26 high of 1.1677. A stronger barrier emerges at the upper Bollinger band around 1.1710, en route to the May 8 high of 1.1788.
On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 1.1570 offers first support, followed by the August 13 low of 1.1511. A more distant Bollinger lower band level is located near 1.1480, where a deeper pullback would likely encounter firmer buying interest.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
XAU/USDGold broke 4575/4570 to trigger a move to a buying opportunity at 4555/4545.
A bounce from 4530 hit 4582, so there was a potential $30 to $35 on the trade but then Gold collapsed again breaking below 4520.
If you watched my video, the next downside target was 4435/4415 - we made a low for the day at 4445 so we got very close.
Today's very important support is a little lower at 4415/4400. Longs need stops below 4390.
An unexpected break lower can target 4376/72, perhaps as far as 4363/4359.
I think for the next day or 2 gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 4486/92.
Above 4496 allows a recovery to 4503/4513 & we could reverse from here.
A break above 4518 however can target a sell opportunity at 4528/4533. Shorts need stops above 4544.
XAG/USDSilver climbed initially beating resistance at the 6980/6990 highs for a buy signal targeting 7110/7130.
Longs worked perfectly with a high for the day exactly at 7112. Again, we took the maximum out of this opportunity.
However on the Warsh speech, silver crashed back below 6775/6750 to target a mega buying opportunity at 6655/6640.
I stated: There is a good chance of a low for the day here but longs need stops below 6610.
With a low for the day at 6608 I am happy that this was pretty accurate, especially in such conditions where we had broken the 1 week low.
(The first time we tested 6655/6640 we did manage a quick bounce to 6619 before retesting the level).
I think silver will also remain under pressure in the short term. A break below 6585 could trigger further losses to 6565/6560 & even as far as an excellent buying opportunity at 6490/6460.
This could mark a low for this downside correction but longs need stops below 6410.
If we manage to recover from 6655/6640 on Monday we meet first resistance at 6710/6730.
Gold (XAU/USD) has come under renewed pressure following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish message at Jackson Hole. His comments raised the possibility of a September rate increase as inflation remains a key concern. Meanwhile, escalating US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher and added to inflation risks. Markets now await the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for clearer signals on the economy and the Fed’s next policy move.
Gold retreats as hawkish Fed signals strengthen rate hike betsGold remains under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Warsh indicated that further rate increases may be necessary if inflation fails to return toward the Fed’s 2% target. He also said financial conditions do not appear restrictive enough. These comments strengthened expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates in September. Higher rate expectations have weighed on gold because the metal does not provide interest income.
Tensions between the United States and Iran have added another source of uncertainty for markets. US military forces struck two Iranian launchers on Iran’s Larak Island on Sunday. Iran responded with ballistic missile strikes targeting two US bases. The escalation pushed oil prices higher and raised concerns that energy costs could add to inflation. Higher oil prices could strengthen the case for the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy stance.
Markets will now focus on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report for clearer guidance on the economy and monetary policy. Strong employment data could strengthen expectations for a September rate increase and keep gold under pressure. Weaker figures could reduce those expectations and provide some support. Developments between the United States and Iran will also remain important. Gold could benefit from increased geopolitical risks, but concerns over inflation and interest rates may restrict gains.
Gold technical analysis: Trendline support remains intact after recent pullbackThe gold chart below shows price trading above a major ascending trendline that has provided support over recent months. Gold recently formed a rounded bottom near this trendline before advancing toward the $4,750 resistance area. Price then reversed from this region and declined toward $4,400. Despite the decline, gold remains well above the rising trendline, keeping the underlying support structure intact.
The ascending trendline remains an important support on the chart. Gold formed a rounded bottom above this trendline before beginning its latest advance. This reaction highlights the strength of the rising support and its importance to the overall price structure. Gold needs to remain above this trendline to maintain the positive outlook, while further weakness could bring the rising support back into focus.
The $4,750 area remains an important resistance level. Gold must break this line to gain strength and open the way for a stronger advance. Until then, price could remain between the rising trendline and these major resistance levels. A break above resistance could shift focus toward the next key resistance area, while renewed weakness could bring the rising trendline back into focus.
Gold price outlook: Hawkish Fed signals keep Gold under pressureGold remains under pressure as higher interest rate expectations weigh on the market. Hawkish Fed signals and rising inflation concerns could keep the outlook uncertain. The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report could provide fresh direction for rate expectations. At the same time, US-Iran tensions could continue to influence market sentiment. Gold could remain under pressure until markets receive clearer signals on the Fed’s policy outlook.
Danske Research Team notes that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech pushed EUR/USD lower, with markets now pricing September as nearly a coin-flip for a rate hike. The team highlights that the Dollar strengthened versus both the Euro and Japanese Yen, while EUR/USD is broadly unchanged in early Asian trading despite the repricing in US rates.
Hawkish Fed rhetoric pressures Euro"In the US, Fed Chairman Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone in his speech at Jackson Hole, reaffirming that the 2% PCE target is "firm" and "fixed" and signalling that more work remains if inflation does not move towards target with sufficient speed."
"This represents a step away from his July press conference tone, where Warsh had emphasised markets' role in determining the direction of rates. The remarks sent EUR/USD lower. Overall, Warsh's message was consistent with a central banker open to hiking at the next meeting, with September now priced as nearly a coin-flip."
"Also on the wires, Fed's Hammack, who voted for a rate hike at the last meeting, struck a hawkish tone, calling for immediate action on rate hikes and warning that waiting risks creating further pain. She expects inflation to end the year around 3%, well above the 2% target, and does not view current financial conditions as restrictive."
"Focus turns to the German flash inflation figures for August, ahead of the euro area release tomorrow. Headline HICP inflation is expected to increase to 3.1% y/y (prior: 2.8%), driven by energy prices. Attention will centre on momentum in underlying inflation, which remained unaffected by the energy shock in the figures from Spain and France last week."
"This week we have another crucial event for the US market with the labour market report for August, which is released on Friday. On top of this we have inflation data from the eurozone."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD fell sharply to 1.3527 and closed at 1.3540, contradicting expectations for range trading. Intraday, they see limited further losses within 1.3520–1.3570 due to oversold conditions. Over the coming weeks, risk stays skewed lower toward 1.3480 while the pair remains capped below 1.3600.
Pound under pressure near supports"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Thursday, GBP fell to a low of 1.3571 before recovering to close little changed at 1.3594 (-0.03%). When GBP was at 1.3595 on Friday, we highlighted that “oversold conditions, combined with slowing momentum, suggest that instead of continuing to decline today, GBP is more likely to trade in a range of 1.3570/1.3620.” We were incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, GBP fell sharply to a low of 1.3527 before settling 0.40% lower at 1.3540. Conditions remain deeply oversold, and further sustained decline appears unlikely. Today, GBP may edge lower, but any decline should remain within a range of 1.3520/1.3570."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned slightly negative on GBP last Friday (28 Aug, spot at 1.3595), indicating that “there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, and GBP could edge lower.” However, we highlighted that “based on the prevailing momentum, any decline could be contained within a 1.3550/1.3645 range.” We did not anticipate downward momentum to increase so quickly, as GBP plunged to a low of 1.3527. The risk remains on the downside, and the level to watch is 1.3480. Overall, GBP is likely to remain under pressure as long as it holds below 1.3600 (‘strong resistance’ level). "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s commodities team, led by Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, reports that Gold came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced a higher-for-longer rates narrative, supporting the Dollar. They add that upcoming US inflation and labour data, central bank buying and geopolitics will shape Gold’s near-term performance, with upside seen as constrained by rate expectations.
Dollar strength weighs on bullion"Gold came under pressure on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signalled that policymakers remain focused on returning inflation to the 2% target. This dampens expectations for an imminent easing in monetary policy. The comments supported the US dollar and weighed on gold prices."
"Warsh stressed that inflation progress remains insufficient and reiterated that interest rates remain the Fed's primary tool for achieving its objectives. Markets interpreted the remarks as reinforcing a higher-for-longer rates outlook, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold."
"Gold is likely to remain sensitive to incoming US inflation and labour market data. While central bank buying and geopolitical risks should continue to provide underlying support, a stronger dollar and higher-for-longer rate expectations could limit near-term upside momentum."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
TL;DR: The RBNZ’s Wednesday 25bp hike to 2.75% is already priced in, so NZD/USD’s real reaction will hinge on the accompanying rate forecast — ASB expects the OCR to keep climbing to 3.25%, while Westpac sees that same outcome as only a 10-15% probability tail case.
September Hike Looks Like the Low-Drama Part of the Meeting The RBNZ is widely expected to raise the OCR by 25bp from 2.50% to 2.75% when it announces its decision on Wednesday, September 2 at 2pm NZT. Markets are already close to fully pricing that outcome, leaving relatively little room for the headline hike itself to move NZD materially unless the Bank surprises.
The RBNZ’s key interest rate, the Official Cash Rate (OCR), currently sits at 2.50%. Two major New Zealand banks — ASB and Westpac — published detailed previews on August 26, and both arrive at the same headline call: a 25-basis-point hike to 2.75%, agreed by consensus among all six members of the Bank’s rate-setting committee.
ASB’s Senior Economist Mark Smith put it plainly: with the hike “close to fully priced in by financial markets,” the RBNZ is expected to “take the path of least resistance.” Westpac’s Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold reached the identical call independently, also describing it as a likely consensus decision.
When two competing banks agree this closely on the immediate outcome, the actual rate decision becomes low-drama. That’s exactly why this preview focuses less on Wednesday’s number and more on what comes wrapped around it.
A “Sure Thing” That Isn’t Universally Agreed Even so, it’s worth being honest that “priced in” doesn’t mean everyone thinks it’s the right call. The NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board — an independent panel of economists surveyed ahead of each decision — published its latest read on August 31, and only just over half of its members actually recommend the hike.
Those in favour, including BNZ’s Stephen Toplis and economist Viv Hall, point to inflation still running above the Bank’s comfort zone. Those preferring to hold, including Dennis Wesselbaum and Kerry Gupwell, note that much of the recent inflation pickup looks supply-driven rather than demand-driven, and that the case for another hike isn’t yet airtight. One panel member, Jarrod Kerr, goes further and argues New Zealand doesn’t have much of an inflation problem left to fight.
ASB and Westpac Agree on Wednesday, Then Diverge Sharply This is where it gets interesting. Both ASB and Westpac agree on Wednesday’s hike — but they disagree meaningfully on what happens for the rest of the year, and that disagreement is worth explaining plainly:
ASB’s view: the OCR keeps rising in a straight line — a hike in September, another in October, another in December — ending the year at 3.25%, a level ASB considers roughly “neutral” (neither stimulating nor restraining the economy). Westpac’s view: September’s hike happens, and then the path becomes genuinely uncertain. Westpac actually treats “two more hikes bringing the OCR to 3.25% by year-end” as its less likely, more hawkish scenario — assigning it only a 10–15% probability. Westpac’s more central expectation is that the RBNZ pauses to assess the data before committing to anything further. In plain terms: what one bank calls its most probable outcome, the other bank calls a low-probability tail case. That’s a real disagreement between two serious economics teams looking at the same numbers — not just a rounding difference — and it’s the single most useful thing to watch for as Wednesday’s statement and press conference unfold.
Both banks do agree on one thing: the RBNZ is very likely to avoid committing to an October move either way, preferring to say future decisions depend on incoming data. That means the accompanying rate forecast the Bank publishes alongside its decision — not the hike itself — is the thing markets will actually trade off on Wednesday.
The Committee Has Become More Unified, but the Risk Debate Isn’t Settled The RBNZ’s own voting history shows how the policy debate has shifted. In May, the committee split 3–3 between holding and hiking, with Governor Anna Breman’s tie-breaking vote favoring no change. By July, the same six-member committee had moved to unanimous support for raising the OCR to 2.50%.
That progression suggests the direction of travel has become clearer. But July minutes also showed disagreement had moved from the immediate decision to assessment of what comes next. Two members saw inflation risks tilted to the upside, while four judged risks broadly balanced.
A unanimous September hike would therefore not necessarily mean the committee has reached consensus over the full tightening path. The more important signal will be whether the forecasts and statement imply September is another step toward neutral, or whether the RBNZ is preparing to pause after delivering it.
Oil Has So Far Been Kinder Than the RBNZ Feared Energy remains central to the inflation backdrop. In May, the RBNZ based forecasts on Dubai crude gradually falling toward roughly US$96 a barrel by year-end and published alternative scenarios showing how different oil outcomes could affect rates.
Under a scenario where oil remained near $120 and firms passed higher costs through aggressively, the RBNZ estimated the OCR could ultimately need to rise as high as 4.30%. If oil remained elevated but firms absorbed more of the shock, the projected peak was closer to 3.60%. If oil fell broadly as expected and weaker spending became the dominant force, the Bank indicated rates could simply remain on hold.
Actual oil prices have so far developed more favorably. Dubai crude stood at $88.72 on August 28, below the RBNZ’s baseline assumption rather than above it. That helps explain why current rate expectations are far removed from the Bank’s most hawkish oil scenario.
The risk hasn’t disappeared. Renewed Middle East escalation on August 30 pushed Brent back above $90, raising the possibility of another inflation shock if disruption becomes persistent. But for now, oil hasn’t delivered the kind of sustained upside surprise that would by itself justify moving toward the RBNZ’s aggressive tightening scenarios.
Domestic Data Give the RBNZ Reasons for Both Action and Caution Inflation peaked at 3.9% in the June quarter, slightly below the RBNZ’s earlier forecast, and is projected to ease toward 3.3% in the September quarter. Inflation expectations across households, businesses, and professional forecasters also softened in September-quarter surveys, broadly reversing part of the increase associated with the earlier oil shock.
The labor market is less supportive of aggressive tightening. Unemployment reached 5.6% in the June quarter, a little weaker than the RBNZ had expected. That argues against assuming September automatically begins a rapid sequence of hikes.
Financial conditions have meanwhile moved in both directions. The New Zealand Dollar and market interest rates tightened in May, eased in July, and tightened again through August. Broader US Dollar strength following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech has added another external tightening force. That matters because the RBNZ is deciding how much domestic policy restraint is still required in an environment where some tightening is already arriving through markets.
What to Actually Watch on Wednesday The published interest rate forecast, not the hike. Look specifically at where the RBNZ projects rates will end the year and where they’ll peak. If that number lands notably below what markets are currently expecting, it could actually weigh on the New Zealand Dollar even though the Bank is hiking. Any hint about an October move. Both major banks expect the RBNZ to avoid committing either way. A clearer signal in either direction — more hawkish or more dovish than expected — would be the real surprise of the day. Governor Breman’s tone in the press conference. Given her deciding role in May’s tied vote, her communication style carries extra weight even now that the committee has converged. ActionForex’s Technical View on NZD/USD Despite last week’s notable retreat on broad USD strength, downside remains relatively contained. The rising channel off the 0.5625 low remains intact, keeping the case for a resumed rally in force. A break above 0.5987 remains favoured at a later stage as the next bullish trigger.
There’s nevertheless a warning from momentum. Bearish divergence is visible in the 4H MACD, while the recent decline has pushed the pair back toward channel support. A firm break of that floor would confirm a short-term top, opening a deeper corrective decline toward the 38.2% retracement of the 0.5625–0.5987 leg, at 0.5849.
The daily picture puts 0.6000 into better perspective. A break above the nearby 0.5993 swing high would open the way toward the 0.6092/0.6119 resistance cluster. That area sits inside a much larger range that has contained NZD/USD for more than a year and is likely to cap upside on the first attempt.
Wednesday therefore presents two technical tests. Near term, the question is whether RBNZ communication is strong enough to keep the rising 4H channel intact and push the pair through the psychological 0.6000 area. Medium term, clearing 0.6092/0.6119 on anything more than a temporary basis would likely require a genuine repricing of the RBNZ-Fed policy differential rather than the expected 25bp hike alone.
The OCR Track Is Where Surprise Risk Lives With September’s hike already heavily discounted, NZD’s reaction is likely to depend on where the RBNZ sees rates at year-end and at the eventual peak. A track consistent with continued tightening toward 3.25% would lean toward ASB’s view and give NZD a better chance of challenging 0.6000 and beyond. A flatter path implying a pause after September would align more closely with Westpac’s central case and could leave the Kiwi vulnerable despite the higher OCR.
That’s why Wednesday is less about whether the RBNZ hikes and more about whether the Bank validates the tightening markets expect after it. The headline decision may be largely priced. The OCR track is not.
Key Takeaways Wednesday’s 25bp RBNZ hike to 2.75% is already close to fully priced in, meaning the accompanying rate forecast will drive NZD’s reaction, not the decision itself. ASB expects the OCR to keep climbing to 3.25% by year-end, while Westpac treats that same outcome as only a 10-15% probability, favoring a pause instead. Even a unanimous hike wouldn’t confirm committee consensus on the full tightening path, since July minutes already showed a split over how upside inflation risks are assessed. Oil has stayed below the RBNZ’s baseline assumption so far, keeping current rate expectations well short of the Bank’s most hawkish tightening scenarios. NZD/USD holds a bullish bias above the rising channel floor, with 0.5987 the next trigger and 0.6092/0.6119 the bigger medium-term test that likely needs more than a 25bp hike to clear.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Gold – Chart Gold is trading around $4,447 on the 2-hour chart after a notable bearish breakdown from around the $4,600-$4,630 range. Further price decline has broken the 61.8% Fib level at around $4,453, and is now trading below the 50-EMA at around $4,554 and below the 100-EMA at $4,539. This has a negative impact on the structure and creates a dominant negative momentum.
RSI is at around 29, which puts Gold in oversold territory, and makes a rebound in Price more likely. However, oversold territory trades do not confirm reversals. The immediate resistance is noted around $4,452-$4,487. Beyond this, the resistance is noted at $4,515, $4,543, and $4,570. Price is supported at $4,396 which is the rising trendline. The next major support is noted at $4,341.
Gold is currently trading in a bearish market below $4,452-$4,487. A break of $4,396 would expose $4,341. A break of $4,487 would indicate a loss of selling pressure.
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index is trading around 99.52 on the 2-hour chart after extending its recovery from the 98.56 low. Price has now risen above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 99.49 and is currently testing the 23.6% retracement at 99.58. The recovery has been technically constructive, however, DXY is still approaching a heavier resistance zone at 99.58–99.73, where recent highs are located.
The short-term structure remains supported by the rising trendline and fair-value gap at 99.24–99.34. Immediate resistance is located at 99.58, and above that at 99.73, 99.83, and 100.03. On the downside, support is located at 99.49, and below that at 99.41, 99.34, and 99.24.
Looking at the bigger picture, I believe DXY is still in the process of recovering above 99.34–99.41. A break above 99.58 would strengthen the bullish case in the direction of 99.73–100.03, while a break above current resistance would likely result in a sell off back towards the 99.34 support zone.
USDJPY tested the 160 mark for the first time in a month. Kevin Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ rhetoric provided support for the US dollar. The US dollar reacted enthusiastically to Kevin Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ rhetoric, strengthening against the world’s major currencies. The recent slowdown in inflation did not mislead the Fed Chair. He considers the current monetary policy to be insufficiently restrictive and maintains that the central bank still has a lot of work to do. Such rhetoric led to a rise in Treasury bond yields, put the brakes on stock indices and gave the greenback a boost.
The futures market has raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in September from 38% to 60%. CME derivatives put the probability of two federal funds rate hikes in 2026 at 49%. Prior to Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, the figure stood at 21%.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is adding fuel to the fire of rising economic indicators. For the first time since 29 July, the US resorted to bombing Iran, to which Tehran responded with attacks on American bases in Jordan. As a result, Brent crude has risen back above $90 per barrel, heightening the risk of accelerating inflation and prompting the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.
The strengthening of the US dollar enabled the ‘bulls’ on USDJPY to push the exchange rate above the critical 160 mark. It did not manage to hold that level on the first attempt. However, the fact that speculators have been building up short positions on the yen for the second week running suggests that further ones will follow this initial attempt. The pair recouped half of its losses due to currency intervention, which totalled a record $98.7 billion.
Scott Bessent was forced to explain to Congress Washington’s involvement in the coordinated intervention in the forex market. According to the Treasury Secretary, Japan is the largest holder of Treasuries, and erratic movements in the yen could destabilise financial markets and increase the cost of borrowing in the US.
Scott Bessent has no intention of telling the Bank of Japan what to do. However, the Bank must have a clear understanding of the situation. Japan has reached the end of Abenomics, which was essentially a reflationary programme. This is a clear hint at the need to raise the overnight rate at the BoJ’s next meeting in September. The futures market puts the probability of monetary policy tightening at over 80%. Without this, currency interventions make no sense.
The FxPro Analyst Team
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Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 522.02 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 526.05 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 6,088.73 per tola from AED 6,135.71 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
522.02
10 Grams
5,220.19
Tola
6,088.73
Troy Ounce
16,236.77
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,881.94 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,944.38 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 103,599.20 per tola from PHP 104,325.50 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,881.94
10 Grams
88,821.34
Tola
103,599.20
Troy Ounce
276,266.40
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers in the vicinity of mid-0.7100s at the start of a new week, stalling Friday's retracement slide from its highest level since mid-May. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and remain below the 0.7200 mark through the Asian session.
The US Dollar (USD) trades with a mild negative bias below a two-week high, touched on Friday, and turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the AUD/USD pair. However, reviving bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair keeps the near-term bias mildly bullish above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7082. However, momentum is not particularly strong, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around a neutral 46 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slipping slightly into negative territory. This, in turn, suggests that the upside pressure is moderating rather than accelerating.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the current price area around the 0.7135-0.7130 horizontal resistance breakpoint, which should act as an immediate pivot. This is followed by firmer structural demand at the 200-period EMA near 0.7082. As long as AUD/USD holds above this average, pullbacks are likely to attract buyers. Bulls, on the other hand, need to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 0.6200 mark before positioning for any further appreciating move.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.07%-0.05%-0.19%-0.10%-0.01%-0.12%-0.04%EUR0.07%-0.02%-0.13%-0.04%0.03%-0.04%0.02%GBP0.05%0.02%-0.11%-0.03%0.04%-0.04%0.06%JPY0.19%0.13%0.11%0.08%0.17%0.09%0.17%CAD0.10%0.04%0.03%-0.08%0.10%0.01%0.08%AUD0.00%-0.03%-0.04%-0.17%-0.10%-0.07%0.04%NZD0.12%0.04%0.04%-0.09%-0.01%0.07%0.10%CHF0.04%-0.02%-0.06%-0.17%-0.08%-0.04%-0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 534.14 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 537.72 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,230.14 per tola from SAR 6,271.86 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
534.14
10 Grams
5,341.43
Tola
6,230.14
Troy Ounce
16,613.72
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The price has now approached the immediate support zone of $4,400 to $4,350. A break below this support will push the price toward the 50-day SMA in the $4,200 area. The price may remain uncertain in the short term and await the employment data before looking for the next direction. But the RSI indicator is approaching the mid-level, which provides immediate support to the gold market in the short term.
The weekly chart for spot gold also shows that the price has produced a weekly reversal candle at the resistance area. The high was recorded at $4,697 and the price remains under pressure in the short term.
A break below $4,300 will likely push the price toward the $4,200 level. A break below $4,200 will push the price to $4,100, which is now the support of the ascending trend line.
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 571.63 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 576.75 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,667.26 per tola from MYR 6,727.07 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
571.63
10 Grams
5,716.19
Tola
6,667.26
Troy Ounce
17,779.67
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,546.67 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,671.07 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 157,995.90 per tola from INR 159,456.70 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,546.67
10 Grams
135,459.30
Tola
157,995.90
Troy Ounce
421,372.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the $4,472 region and drops to a one-and-a-half-week low during the Asian session on Monday. Traders ramped up bets for an interest rate hike in reaction to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks on curbing inflationary pressures on Friday, which, in turn, continues to undermine the non-yielding bullion. However, modest US Dollar (USD) weakness helps the precious metal show some resilience below the $4,400 mark and trim a part of its intraday losses.
Speaking at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Warsh acknowledged that inflation is running hot and also hinted that interest rates could need to move higher if more progress isn’t made on easing price pressures. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in around a 60% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an 88% probability of a December increase, which lifted the USD to a two-week high on Friday and led to an over 3% fall in the Gold price.
The selling bias remains unabated at the start of a new week as escalating US-Iran tensions lift crude oil prices and fuel inflation fears, bolstering hawkish Fed expectations. US forces struck two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the first American strikes on the Islamic Republic since late July, prompting Iran to retaliate by launching ballistic missiles at two US bases in Jordan. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that new secondary sanctions were likely to be unveiled weekly in the effort to pressure Iran.
Despite the supportive fundamental backdrop, the safe-haven USD struggles to attract any follow-through buying amid soft US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing fresh bearish bets on the Gold price and helps limit the downside. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of USD bulls, suggesting that any recovery in the XAU/USD pair is likely to be sold into. Traders now look to key US macro releases, scheduled for the start of a new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical AnalysisFriday's break below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, for the first time since early August, was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, the commodity is now trading below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from late July lows, validating the near-term negative outlook. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains deeply negative, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory near 25, hinting at persistent downside pressure even if a short-lived corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.
Hence, a subsequent fall towards the next relevant support at the 50.0% retracement near $4,346.16, ahead of the 61.8% level at $4,263.27, looks like a distinct possibility. A break below the latter would expose deeper structural floors at $4,145.27 and $3,994.96. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $4,429.04, followed by the 100-period SMA around $4,475.07 and the 23.6% Fibo. level near $4,531.59, while the cycle high at $4,697.36 marks a more distant barrier for any sustained recovery.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,612.28 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,935.70 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 462,029.90 per tola from PKR 465,802.10 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,612.28
10 Grams
396,122.80
Tola
462,029.90
Troy Ounce
1,232,081.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 114.50 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as Japan’s annual core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in Tokyo rose for a third consecutive month in August, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could raise interest rates as early as September.
Hotter inflation data came after BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino delivered hawkish remarks and highlighted growing inflation risks. Most market participants currently expect the Japanese central bank to raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its upcoming policy meeting.
On the other hand, upbeat China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data could provide some support to the China-proxy Aussie as China is a major trading partner to Australia.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday showed that China’s Manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July. This figure came in stronger than the 49.7 expected. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI steadied at 49.0 in August, compared to July’s 49.0 figure.
BoJ stance seen remaining hawkish as inflation dynamics evolveAnalysts at Societe Generale argue that the latest inflation dynamics, including the mix of softer non-fresh food prices and firmer services costs, “continue to support the BoJ’s hawkish path,” reinforcing expectations that the central bank will maintain its tightening bias despite temporary downward pressure from renewed energy subsidies.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY keeps a constructive tone above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price action is pressing into the upper half of the Bollinger envelope, with the upper band acting as immediate overhead supply, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 63.27 stays in positive territory, hinting at sustained buying pressure rather than outright overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial demand is seen at the August 26 low of 113.66. The next contention level is located at the 100-day SMA at 113.25, followed by the the Bollinger middle band at 113.00.
On the topside, any follow-though buying above the August 26 high of 114.96 would open the door for the Bollinger upper band at 115.20. The next hurdle to watch is the 116.00 psychological level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
TL;DR: Gold’s fall from 4,697.07 to around 4,423 looks more like a correction than a reversal — Warsh repriced rate timing and trimmed some fiscal-credibility premium, but the longer-run Fed path and US fiscal arithmetic are unchanged, leaving the 4,320-4,338 support cluster as the level that would need to break to challenge that base case.
Warsh Hit Gold Twice Gold’s fall from last week’s 4,697.07 peak to around 4,423 looks violent enough to raise obvious question: has one of year’s strongest bullish trades finally reversed? Not yet. Roughly 5.8% decline has been concentrated around Friday’s reaction to Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and Monday’s follow-through, but mechanics of move still look more like a sharp reset than beginning of a new bearish regime.
Warsh delivered two blows at once. First was rates. September hike probability jumped from around 37% to 57%, with odds of at least one hike by December rising to roughly 89%. Treasury curve showed exactly where repricing occurred: 2-year yield surged about 13bp to 4.36%, 10-year rose around 5bp to 4.72%, while 30-year barely moved, up only 1–2bp to 5.21%. Investors moved timing of tightening forward; they did not suddenly price a radically different long-run inflation or rate regime.
Second blow came through debasement trade. Warsh did not mention Bessent, Treasury buybacks or fiscal dominance. But his message was unmistakably discipline-oriented. Short-term rates should be Fed’s predominant tool. Unconventional policy should be used “sparingly, if at all.” Fed should be “committed to a discipline, not to a decision.” Those comments reduced some of institutional-risk premium that had been embedded in Gold as investors worried about monetary policy eventually bending toward fiscal needs. Gold therefore sold off on two fronts at once: higher rates and less urgency to hedge against monetary-fiscal slippage.
Timing Changed More Than Terminal Rate That sounds bearish, but there is an important limit to what markets have actually repriced. Further out FedWatch curve, 4.00–4.25% remains largest single bucket from around mid-2027 onward, while probabilities attached to three or more additional hikes fade further into horizon. Market has moved toward earlier tightening, not toward an obviously longer tightening campaign.
That distinction is central. A lasting Gold reversal would be easier to justify if Warsh had pushed markets toward a substantially higher terminal path and structurally higher real yields. So far, that has not happened. Investors have restored a hawkish path that had lost conviction in recent weeks rather than discovered an entirely new Fed regime.
In that sense, Gold is paying price for reversion rather than discovery. Warsh gave markets reason to take September seriously again and reduced some credibility risk around Fed. But he has not yet produced evidence that rates will have to rise much further than markets already contemplated.
Warsh Changed Fed Leg, Not Fiscal Arithmetic Same argument applies to debasement trade. Warsh weakened one part of it, but he did not remove underlying fiscal backdrop.
Treasury buyback program for Sept. 9–Nov. 4 remains live. Fitch still projects federal debt rising from roughly 117% of GDP in 2025 to 128% by 2030. July deficit was $432bn, while interest payments have reached around $963bn. None of those numbers changed because Fed Chair delivered a discipline-first speech.
That matters because debasement trade is broader than Fed independence alone. It also reflects persistent deficits, Treasury financing needs, debt servicing, monetary accommodation risk and confidence in Dollar over longer run. Warsh reduced concern that Fed itself would readily validate fiscal accommodation. Fiscal arithmetic that created those concerns, however, is still there.
For Gold bears, that leaves a higher bar. Either Fed path must become materially more restrictive than currently priced, or fiscal picture itself has to improve enough to remove another leg of structural Gold demand.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold: The Real Test Is Still Below the Market Charts point to same conclusion: Gold has been hit hard, but most important support has not yet been tested.
Short-term damage is obvious. Price has fallen through 4H 55 EMA near 4,531, 4H RSI has dropped to roughly 29, and 4H MACD remains firmly negative. Momentum is still pointing down, so there is no technical basis yet to declare correction finished.
Daily chart is different. Gold remains above rising 55-day EMA at 4,338.05, daily RSI is still around 52, and MACD remains above zero even though momentum has turned lower. More importantly, three independent support methods converge in almost same place:
55-day EMA at 4,338.05. 50% retracement of 3,942.43–4,697.07 rally at 4,319.75. Structural support at 4,324.23.
That leaves a tight 4,320–4,338 technical cluster, with 4,300 serving as broader psychological and invalidation line. Current price around 4,423 is still comfortably above it. Support has not held because support has not yet been tested.
If this is only a correction, that zone should begin attracting buyers. Gold could then settle into a wider 4,300–4,700 consolidation, allowing August surge to cool without destroying larger recovery structure. A bounce from support accompanied by 4H RSI turning higher from oversold levels and MACD downside momentum flattening would strengthen that case. A decisive daily break below 4,300 would do opposite.
What Would Make Bears Right? Most important fundamental warning would not be another jump in September hike odds. It would be Fed curve shifting materially further right in 2027 and beyond. If markets start moving from “one or two hikes brought forward” toward a genuine extended multi-hike campaign, Gold would face a very different real-yield regime. That would be actual policy regime change rather than timing adjustment seen after Warsh.
August CPI and next payrolls report are therefore more important than Friday’s shock itself. Both arrive before Sept. 15–16 FOMC and will test whether Warsh’s hawkish framework is validated by data. A broad upside inflation surprise or exceptionally strong labor reading could force markets to extend tightening expectations beyond September and December.
Brent above $100 could contribute to same process, but only through inflation and rates. Latest escalation around Larak Island and Iranian retaliation against US bases in Jordan keeps that risk alive. A sustained oil shock that broadens inflation pressure could strengthen case for Fed staying restrictive for longer. Oil crossing $100 without changing inflation expectations or Fed curve, however, would not automatically turn Gold bearish.
A more decisive blow would come from fiscal side itself: credible consolidation, a materially improved debt path, or clear evidence that Treasury-financing concerns are fading independently of Fed. That looks less likely near term, but it would attack debasement thesis at source rather than merely reducing fear that Fed will accommodate it.
For now, Gold has suffered a powerful two-channel correction, not a confirmed trend reversal. Warsh moved Fed timing, trimmed credibility premium and pushed short-term momentum sharply lower. What he did not do was rewrite longer-run rate path or US fiscal arithmetic. That leaves chart to decide next stage. Around 4,320–4,338, Gold reaches first serious support. Below 4,300, correction thesis starts to fail.
Key Takeaways Gold’s 5.8% decline reflects Warsh’s two-channel hit: higher near-term rate odds (September hike probability to 57%) and reduced fiscal-credibility premium, not a change in longer-run policy. The 30-year yield barely moved (+1-2bp) while the 2-year jumped 13bp, confirming markets repriced timing, not the terminal rate or long-run inflation regime. US fiscal arithmetic is unchanged: the Treasury buyback program remains live, debt is still projected to rise from 117% to 128% of GDP by 2030, and July’s deficit hit $432bn. Three independent support methods converge at 4,320-4,338 (55-day EMA, 50% retracement, structural support), with 4,300 as the key invalidation line for the correction thesis. August CPI and the next payrolls report, not Friday’s speech itself, are the real tests of whether Warsh’s hawkish framework gets validated by data before the September FOMC.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Gold is extending Friday’s correction into early Monday, testing the lowest level in eight days near $4,400.
Gold cracks on hawkish Fed, Iran risksGold fades a temporary recovery seen in the last hours, as bears remain in control heading into the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) week, despite a broad US Dollar (USD) pullback from two-week highs.
The Greenback is pulling back on profit-taking after a steep rally on Friday. However, a deeper retracement looks elusive amid a revival in hawkish sentiment around a Federal Reserve (Fed) September interest rate hike and fresh US-Iran strikes.
US military forces struck two Iranian launchers on Iran's Larak Island on Sunday, marking the first known American strikes on Iran since late July. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missile strikes on two US bases in Jordan and within the country.
Renewed geopolitical tensions drove Oil prices higher and reignited inflation fears, supporting the case for a Fed rate hike next month, keeping the USD’s further downside in check and undermining non-yielding assets such as Gold.
On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly signalled for the first time that rate hikes may be needed to contain inflation. His words at the Jackson Hole Symposium were perceived as hawkish, prompting markets to ramp up bets for a September rate lift-off.
Warsh flags unfinished inflation work as financial conditions stay looseFed Chair Warsh delivered a notably more hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7.4/10, above the 6.5/10 historical average, underscoring heightened concern on price stability. The insistence that the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to objective “or we have work to do,” combined with comments that financial conditions are not restrictive and credit markets show few signs of restraint, points to a bias toward further tightening or a prolonged restrictive stance despite better headline inflation prints. Warsh’s emphasis that this summer’s data do not yet signal a meaningful change in underlying trends, alongside a firm commitment to the 2% PCE target and a predominant focus on prices, reinforces a vigilant inflation-fighting posture that is supportive of the Dollar and broadly negative for risk-sensitive FX.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated level of 129.70, confirming that Fed communication remains firmly in hawkish territory relative to the neutral 100 benchmark.
Markets now see a 57% chance of such a move, up from 39% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Looking ahead, it remains to be seen whether Gold extends its correction from over three-month highs of $4,697 or stages a solid comeback.
That said, Gold's next major trend depends on renewed US-Iran tensions and the upcoming US NFP data due later this week.
In the meantime, hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical risk premia could remain a drag on Gold, limiting the bright metal’s recovery attempts, if any.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,430.16. The metal retains a constructive near-term tone as spot holds above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,411.61 and the 100-day SMA at $4,370.32, while the longer-term 200-day SMA at $4,528.87 stands as the next bullish objective overhead. The 50-day SMA at $4,211.22 remains well below current price, reinforcing an overall supportive moving average structure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 hints at steady, rather than overstretched, upside momentum.
On the downside, immediate support is located around the current pivot zone near $4,430, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,411.61 and the 100-day SMA at $4,370.32, which together form a dense demand band before the more distant 50-day SMA at $4,211.22. On the topside, initial resistance is provided by the 200-day SMA at $4,528.87, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the path for a continuation of the broader bullish phase in gold.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Key highlightsEUR/USD struggled near 1.1710 and started a downside correction.It traded below a bullish trend line with support at 1.1655 on the 4-hour chart.EUR/USD technical analysisLooking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a bullish trend line with support at 1.1655. There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1511 swing low to the 1.1710 high.
The pair even spiked below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). If there are more losses, the pair might find bids near the 76.4% Fib retracement level at 1.1558.
The first major support could be near 1.1520 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.1520 might start a major leg down. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 1.1440. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.1420.
On the upside, EUR/USD could face resistance near the 1.1620 level. The next major resistance might be 1.1660. A close above 1.1660 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1710. Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.1750.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $66.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. The non-yielding Silver declined following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh said on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium that policymakers will "have work to do" if they were not confident cost-of-living pressures were easing for Americans. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” said Warsh. “Otherwise, we have work to do,” he added.
Moreover, the Fed's next interest rate decision will be made on September 15-16. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in nearly a 57.5% odds of at least 25 basis points (bps) next month, up from 35% before Fed Chair Warsh’s speech.
Silver also remained pressured by higher oil prices after Iran launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles across multiple locations, including Tehran, Lorestan, Karaj, Khorramabad, and Shiraz. The strikes, targeting positions toward the Strait of Hormuz, came in direct response to a vow by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to avenge a Sunday United States (US) strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island.
The preceding US strike marked the first direct attack on Iranian military positions in over a month, explicitly targeting rocket sites prepared to lay mines in the strategic waterway. While American forces reported closely monitoring the Strait to ensure the uninterrupted flow of global trade, Washington's broader strategy had recently favored economic sanctions over direct military actions to compel Tehran back to the negotiating table.
However, TD Securities cited that the backdrop for precious metals has improved as investors reassessd the policy stance of the Fed and the outlook for the Dollar. Strategists note that, "beyond the Fed's willingness to look past an energy-driven inflation shock, the re-ignition of the dollar debasement theme has also fueled renewed macro discretionary appetite in precious metals," helping to draw fresh interest into the complex.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
EUR/USD struggled near 1.1710 and started a downside correction. It traded below a bullish trend line with support at 1.1655 on the 4-hour chart. Gold prices dipped from $4,700 and tested the $4,420 support. Bitcoin started a consolidation phase below the $80,000 pivot level. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro failed to settle above 1.1700 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a downside correction below 1.1680 and 1.1660.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a bullish trend line with support at 1.1655. There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1511 swing low to the 1.1710 high.
The pair even spiked below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). If there are more losses, the pair might find bids near the 76.4% Fib retracement level at 1.1558.
The first major support could be near 1.1520 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.1520 might start a major leg down. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 1.1440. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.1420.
On the upside, EUR/USD could face resistance near the 1.1620 level. The next major resistance might be 1.1660. A close above 1.1660 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1710. Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.1750.
Looking at Gold, the price accelerated gains above $4,550, but failed to clear $4,700 and corrected some gains.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
German Consumer Price Index for August 2026 (YoY) (Prelim) – Forecast +2.9%, versus +2.8% previous. German Consumer Price Index for August 2026 (MoM) (Prelim) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.8% previous. Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index for August 2026 – Forecast 57.0, versus 57.6 previous.
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