Gold is defending the $4,000 area within a tight range following a death cross, with $4,200 capping the upside. Source: TradingView. The gold market has been noisy in early trading on Wednesday, initially dropping only to turn around and show some signs of resilience. The $4,000 level sits below, which, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that will attract a certain amount of headlines, as financial reporters love these levels.
Recently, we’ve had the 50-day EMA breakdown below the 200-day EMA, kicking off the death cross, which is a longer-term bearish signal for some analysts and can cause a little bit of nerves as well. It’s worth noting that we have pierced the $4,000 level a couple of times recently, and so far, it looks at least like there are buyers underneath that area that are willing to pick up gold, perhaps down to the $3,900 level based on historical price action. This area is one I would be watching very closely if we do, in fact, get there.
Macro Pressures and Bearish Technical Crossovers Keep in mind that interest rates are elevated, and generally speaking, the historical correlation is higher interest rates, lower silver, but that is also exacerbated by a stronger US dollar, which we have had recently, against almost everything out there.
From a technical analysis standpoint, I’m looking at the 50-day EMA getting ready to cross below the 200-day EMA, something that has already happened in gold as a potential death cross. This is an indicator setup that most traders consider bearish, so with that being the case, I think you continue to have to wonder whether or not we need some type of external factor to get moving. It looks to me in my analysis that a very flat and sideways market is what we are dealing with, and there’s nothing on the candlestick early on Wednesday that suggests that has changed in the silver market.
/ / Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Coils Below 2024 High Resistance USD/JPY is contracting within the monthly range just below major resistance at multi-year highs. Battle lines drawn as intervention fears loom.
15/07/2026
7/15/2026 1:02:00 PM
Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Multi-Timeframe Analysis USD/JPY has failed to close above the 2024 swing high for a third straight week, keeping Bank of Japan intervention risk in play. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, breaks down the multi time frame setup and the exact levels that would confirm a breakout or a deeper reversal.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Key USD/JPY Economic Data Releases
Active Short-term Technical Charts US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
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Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields rebound after coming under pressure on Tuesday following softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,036, down 0.40% on the day.
US inflation cooled sharply in June, although much of the decline was driven by lower energy prices following last month’s interim peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
Headline CPI fell 0.4% MoM after a 0.5% rise in May, slowing the annual rate to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core CPI month-on-month came in flat at 0% after a previous 0.2% gain, while the annual core rate eased to 2.6% in June from 2.9%.
The data reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike and briefly lifted Gold above $4,100 on Tuesday. Still, it did not materially change the Fed’s hawkish outlook, as inflation risks persist with Oil prices creeping higher again following renewed fighting in the Middle East.
In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump warned that military strikes against Iran would intensify unless Tehran resumed negotiations. "Next week comes the bridges. We're going to knock out all their power plants. We're going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate," Trump said.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see an 85% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, while the probability of a September hike stands at around 60%.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target during his congressional testimony on Tuesday, saying “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.”
“The June CPI was positive relative to expectations,” Warsh added. “I’m not cherry-picking. There is still plenty of work to do.”
Attention now turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, due at 12:30 GMT, for more clues on the inflation outlook.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD keeps bearish bias with $4,000 support in focus
On the daily chart, XAU/USD retains a bearish near-term bias as the price holds well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The clustering of these longer-term SMAs above spot suggests upside attempts are likely to be capped for now.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 stays in neutral-to-soft territory, hinting at limited bullish momentum despite a pause in the recent slide. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 38.37 points to a still-established trend backdrop.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal level of $4,200, ahead of the 50-day SMA near $4,319 and another barrier at $4,400, with the 200-day SMA at $4,495 and the 100-day SMA at $4,559 marking a broader supply zone higher up.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $4,000.00 handle, and a sustained break below this floor would likely open the way for a deeper bearish extension in line with the prevailing trend structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%-0.11%0.06%0.06%-0.14%-0.09%0.23%EUR-0.06%-0.22%0.00%-0.01%-0.25%-0.21%0.16%GBP0.11%0.22%0.20%0.20%-0.04%0.01%0.37%JPY-0.06%0.00%-0.20%-0.01%-0.22%-0.17%0.15%CAD-0.06%0.00%-0.20%0.00%-0.21%-0.21%0.17%AUD0.14%0.25%0.04%0.22%0.21%0.03%0.36%NZD0.09%0.21%-0.01%0.17%0.21%-0.03%0.36%CHF-0.23%-0.16%-0.37%-0.15%-0.17%-0.36%-0.36% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD/TRY continues to inch higher on the back of the Lira's managed depreciation regime, with additional pressure from geopolitics. Current Setup and Live Chart USD/TRY is once more on the back foot this Wednesday, after the US Dollar regained some of the momentum it lost following Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index data. The pair remains locked within an environment where resilience in the US Dollar, persistent domestic inflation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty are acting as headwinds to the Lira, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) maintains tighter monetary conditions and has taken certain policy steps that have restored confidence in its monetary policy framework.
The Turkish Lira remains in a structural depreciation regime, with the CBRT actively taking measures to manage depreciation and prevent outsized moves.
Macro Drivers for the USD/TRY 1) Elevated Local Inflation
Persistently elevated local inflation has continued to weigh on the Turkish Lira. Despite slight moderation from peak levels, consumer price pressures remain well above the CBRT’s long-term policy target. Consequently, the Lira continues to suffer from a decline in its purchasing power, which has also increased demand for foreign currencies among the population. This also presents a complicated monetary policy scenario for the CBRT, even as inflationary expectations remain elevated. The pressure from the renewed geopolitical escalation complicates the inflationary scenario.
2) Higher Oil Prices
Turkey is a net energy importer. This renders the country vulnerable to situations that cause marked elevation of oil prices. The renewed conflict between the US and Iran has sent oil prices soaring from just above $70/barrel to $87 as of writing. Along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, this has added another layer of risk for the Turkish economy. Typically, higher crude oil prices increase energy import costs, leading to imported inflation that worsens the already persistent local inflationary scenario and creates current account pressures. The increase in demand for US dollars to pay for the higher energy product costs (priced in dollars) puts the Lira under additional pressure.
3) Safe-haven USD Demand
The renewed geopolitical escalation has heightened risk aversion in global markets, driving safe-haven demand for the US dollar. This safe-haven demand comes from direct demand for the currency itself as well as from capital influx into dollar-denominated assets. The Turkish Lira and lira-denominated assets are viewed as high risk. During periods of risk aversion, capital will flow away from high-risk emerging-market currencies into US dollar-denominated assets.
Price Catalysts for the USD/TRY 1) CBRT policy communication: CBRT guidance on inflation, exchange rate policy, or future rate decisions is an important price catalysts that impact the TRY’s side of the equation. Furthermore, any communication regarding special policy measures to support the Lira will be regarded as key to restoring some level of investor confidence that has been degraded.
2) Brent crude prices: Oil prices will remain a key external risk source for Turkey due to the country’s dependence on energy imports. Additional gains in crude oil prices will pressurize the Lira for the reasons mentioned above.
3) US economic data: As noted earlier, the cooling of US consumer prices provided a relief rally for the Lira, but these rallies are only expected to serve as dip-buying opportunities. Stronger-than-expected US economic data will influence US long-term bond yields and the USD’s overall direction, especially against emerging-market FX.
USD/TRY Forecast Scenarios Base case: USD/TRY to remain bullish on the back of elevated energy prices, persistent local inflation, and capital flows into the US Dollar being buoyed by safe-haven demand due to renewed geopolitical tensions.
Bull case: marked elevation in oil prices (Brent crude > $100), a rise in US bond yields, and an intensification of geopolitical tensions. This scenario sees a marked rise in energy import costs, imported inflation that worsens pre-existing local inflation, and increased demand for US Dollars, adding further strain to the CBRT’s already stretched FX reserves.
Bear case: geopolitical resolution, falling oil prices, softer US economic data, and further investor confidence in the CBRT’s disinflationary programs. These will only lead to a retracement in USD/TRY, not a reversal of the uptrend.
USD/TRY Technical Outlook Tuesday’s retreat fund support at the trendline and the 46.9000 intraday support. A rejection of the bounce at the current resistance of 47.0369 retested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 46.9200. The bounce is currently retesting the 47.0369 resistance. If the bulls uncap this barrier, we could see a further push towards the 47.0873 resistance, followed by the 47.1529 price mark, corresponding to the 27% and 61.8% Fibonacci extension levels of the 9 July – 13 July upswing.
Fig 1: USD/TRY daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 15 July 2026) On the flip side, rejection at this resistance will favor a retracement to retest the trendline support. If this trendline support is broken, a further push lower will retest the 46.9001 support mark. If this pivot fails, a further support target is seen at the 46.8481 price mark, the current low of 9 July.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clings to Tuesday’s gains around 0.5820 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair reflects strength in a risk-on market environment, driven by easing fears of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year.
In the European trade, S&P 500 futures trade 0.25% higher around 7,563, indicating strong demand for riskier assets.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates in the policy meeting this month have eased to 16.6% from 31% seen last week.
Market participants have scaled back hawkish Fed bets as the United States (US) inflation cooled down at a faster-than-expected pace in June.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Ahead of the US producer inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 101.00 after recovering early losses.
NZD/USD technical analysis
NZD/USD trades marginally higher at around 0.5820. The pair has edged back above the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5810 while holding over the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5746, which together hint at a constructive near-term tone.
A rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.8 reinforces improving bullish momentum, though prices are still capped by the 61.80% retracement at 0.5853 just overhead.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5853, followed by the 78.60% retracement at 0.5915, with the recent swing high at the 100.00% level of 0.5994 acting as a stronger barrier if gains extend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the reclaimed 50.00% retracement at 0.5810, ahead of a minor floor around the 38.20% level at 0.5766 and the 20-day EMA at 0.5746, while deeper declines would expose the 23.60% retracement at 0.5712 and the structural anchor near 0.5625.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Risk sentiment FAQs In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.1% at around 1.3403 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar comes under selling pressure, with market participants dialing down expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, has recovered its early losses and is marginally down to near 100.87. However, the DXY is still holding Tuesday’s losses. Read more...
GBP/USD awaits political news: What will happen nextGBP/USD rose to 1.3403 on Wednesday, with British politics taking centre stage for investors.
The market is assessing the upcoming change of prime minister, with Andy Burnham set to take office on 20 July. Of additional interest is the potential candidate for the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. In betting markets, Ed Miliband is considered the favourite, whom investors perceive as a supporter of more active fiscal spending. Read more...
The GBP/JPY pair rose today, building on early-week gains despite Middle East tensions that typically favor the safe-haven yen Spiking oil prices have hurt Japan's import-dependent economy, widening its trade deficit and neutralizing the yen's traditional safe-haven status A widening interest rate gap between the BoE and BoJ fuels carry trades, keeping the pair's path toward 220.00 technically intact The British pound has strengthened against the Japanese yen for the third consecutive trading day. This move is notable as elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East typically lead to increased demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset. Examining the factors influencing this trend offers insight into current market dynamics.
How the Pound is Countering the Yen’s Safe-Haven Flows Recent military actions in the Persian Gulf and threats concerning the Strait of Hormuz have significantly impacted oil markets. While higher energy costs affect Japan, the primary driver for the GBP/JPY pair is the substantial interest rate difference between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This differential is crucial for JPY-funded carry trades.
The BoE has maintained a relatively hawkish monetary policy, with its base rate at 3.75%. Monetary Policy Committee members voted 7-2 to keep the rates unchanged in the June meeting, with two committee members actually pushing for a hike to 4%. The reasoning is telling because the BoE explicitly flagged that the war in the Middle East has driven up energy prices.
The BoE is therefore seen as hawkish compared to the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to normalization. This gap in interest rates continues to favor the pound in carry trade strategies, encouraging investors to hold or increase their GBP positions.
Although energy prices have seen some decline from their peak, the persistent risk of inflation keeps the committee in a stance that supports holding rates steady, rather than cutting them as some market participants had anticipated earlier in the year.
Economic indicators from the UK, including stable growth and inflation trends, have bolstered confidence in the pound. Conversely, the yen faces headwinds from Japan’s domestic economic policies and global interest rate differentials.
Is 220.00 Inevitable This Year? With strong underlying forces, reaching the significant psychological mark of 220.00 for GBP/JPY seems very possible, though not guaranteed. Many predictions suggest GBP/JPY will trade between 205 and 218 until 2026. This could go higher if the Bank of England keeps its policy advantage and investors are comfortable taking risks.
Investors must remain alert to two key risks. The biggest immediate risk is the Japanese Ministry of Finance directly interfering in the currency markets. If the yen drops too fast, officials in Tokyo will probably sell dollars and buy yen, which could cause a quick drop of several hundred pips in GBP/JPY.
Another risk is if an oil crisis leads to a global economic slowdown. This would cause a rapid unwinding of carry trades, meaning capital would rush back to Japan, quickly weakening the pound.
Why is GBP/JPY rising despite Middle East tensions?
The same conflict is keeping UK inflation expectations elevated. This pushes the Bank of England towards a policy that supports sterling’s attractiveness due to its yield.
Why isn’t the yen acting as a safe haven right now?
Structural concerns about Japan’s finances appear to be outweighing the yen’s traditional defensive role during this geopolitical stress period.
Should investors view current GBP/JPY gains as sustainable?
The sustainability of current GBP/JPY gains depends on continued monitoring of geopolitical developments and economic data to ensure momentum persists.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on “inside trading” on Wednesday, with price action contained within Tuesday’s range, as the pair keeps looking for direction above the $4,000 level. Rising tensions in Iran and high Oil prices have offset the positive impact from the soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
US data released on Tuesday revealed that inflationary pressures eased beyond expectations in June. Yearly CPI slowed down to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, well below the 3.8% market consensus, and monthly inflation contracted 0.4%, its largest decline in nearly six years. These figures triggered a significant repricing of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and sent the USD lower across the board
Precious metals, however, have failed to capitalise on the US Dollar’s weakness amid escalating hostilities between the US and Iran. Threats of further attacks and the closure of more energy routes are underpinning OIil prices near one-month highs, fuelling expectations of higher inflationary pressures and global monetary tightening.
Technical Analysis: Bearish momentum fades with bulls still subdued
XAU/USD trades at $4,027, still capped below the downward trend-line barrier yet with the Relative Strength Index (14) on the daily chart showing a bullish divergence as it reaches the neutral territory in the 40 area. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory yet at levels suggesting that bullish attempts remain frail.
Gold bulls should break the mentioned trendline, now around $4,100 and the July 7 high, in the $4,200 area to confirm a trend shift and gain confidence to pursue a deeper correction. On the downside, the precious metal has a cluster of supports between Thursday's low in the $4,020 area and the late October 2025 lows near $3,885.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 0.6% to near $58.00 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The white metal faces slight selling pressure despite traders scaling back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed raising interest rates in the policy meeting this month have eased to 16.6% from 41.7% recorded on Monday.
Theoretically, signs of easing hawkish Fed prospects bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
On Tuesday, the US CPI report showed that the headline and core inflation decelerated significantly to 3.5% and 2.6% year-on-year (YoY), respectively.
Meanwhile, higher oil prices due to renewed exchange of attacks between the United States (US) and Iran will likely keep the upside in the Silver price limited. Escalated energy prices have de-anchored global inflation projections, a scenario that forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.41 per troy ounce, down 0.46% from the $58.68 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.82% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.04 on Wednesday, broadly unchanged from 69.05 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Despite a sharper-than-expected decline in US CPI, from 4.2% to 3.5%, the US dollar continues to hold firm above the 100 mark while silver resumes its weakness below $60 as geopolitical risks remain elevated.
Market rebounds across major currency pairs, precious metals, and risk assets continue to face headwinds as the implications of the Middle East conflict extend into the second half of the year. Markets are increasingly being influenced by:
Disruptions to global shipping, with higher transit costs, tolls, and restricted access across parts of the Strait of Hormuz. A cautious second-half outlook from corporate management teams despite stronger-than-expected earnings from major US banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, as well as AI semiconductor leader ASML. Crude oil rebounding toward the $80 mark. Precious metals returning to critical bearish breakout zones. From an FX perspective, USD/JPY remains one of the most interesting charts. The pair is trading near levels last seen in the 1980s and could be at risk of another steep bullish breakout toward 170 should the US Dollar Index (DXY) confirm its own breakout above 102.
Across precious metals, both gold and silver are approaching major historical confluence zones:
Gold is testing a 10-year ascending trendline that has transitioned from resistance into support, alongside the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920–2026 advance. Full Gold Analysis Silver is testing a breakdown below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1930–2026 advance, while approaching a multi-decade resistance-turned-support zone near $50. I discussed these technical patterns in the latest bi-weekly webinar.
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USD/JPY Price Outlook: 4-Hour Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY continues to coil within a triangle pattern, pointing to growing bullish breakout risks above the 162.40–162.80 resistance zone. A sustained break above this area—and above 163.50—would strengthen the case for an extension toward 165, 168, and eventually 170.
These upside targets align with the 61.8%, 100%, and 127.2% Fibonacci extension levels of the May–June 2026 advance, while also converging with the upper boundary of the ascending channel that has guided price action since April 2025.
On the downside, a confirmed break below 161.10 and 160.80 would expose the lower boundary of the channel near 158. From there, prices could either stage another rebound to preserve the year-long bullish trend or extend losses toward 155 and 152, near the yearly lows. This bearish scenario would likely coincide with a DXY breakdown below the 100.30–99.30 support zone. Expanded Analysis
USD/JPY Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
The weekly chart highlights the broader one-year ascending parallel channel, with price currently trading near its midpoint. This also aligns with the midpoint of the larger channel that has been in place since 2022, creating a major technical confluence zone.
A sustained move toward 170 remains possible, while a decisive close above 170 would expose the upper boundary of the 2022–2026 channel near 180.
Although this remains an aggressive scenario and would likely increase the probability of Bank of Japan intervention, it cannot be ruled out if the US dollar extends its breakout above 102 without a meaningful policy response from the BOJ.
Silver Price Outlook: Six-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
The six-month chart continues to highlight several important long-term technical developments:
A six-month shooting star reversal pattern. A breakdown below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1930–2026 secular advance. Price approaching the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs between 1980 and 2024, which could transition from long-term resistance into major support. This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance near $46–50. The shorter-term outlook is further clarified on the daily chart below.
Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a daily perspective, silver remains capped below a descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026. At the same time, daily momentum remains below the neckline of the previous head-and-shoulders pattern, reinforcing the bearish momentum backdrop.
A breakdown below $57 would expose the longer-term support zone discussed above.
Conversely, a breakout above the resistance levels at $61, $63.80, $68, and eventually $72 would significantly increase confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit price targets over the longer term.
Key Takeaway The US Dollar Index will remain the primary benchmark for both the FX and precious metals markets as geopolitical tensions continue to evolve.
The 101.80–102.00 resistance zone remains the key level to watch. A confirmed breakout would likely strengthen the US dollar further and increase downside pressure across major currencies and precious metals during the second half of the year.
Conversely, a breakdown below 100.60, followed by 100.30 and 99.30, would ease dollar strength and improve the outlook for currencies and precious metals alike.
The USD/CHF pair attracts some dip-buyers on Wednesday and moves further away from the weekly trough, around the 0.8060 region set the previous day. Spot prices climb to a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session, with bulls looking to build on the momentum further beyond the 0.8100 mark.
As investors digest Tuesday's soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, energy-driven inflation fears resurface as escalating US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain supportive of elevated crude oil prices. This bolsters US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations and offers some support to the US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair and validates the near-term positive outlook.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and subsequent strength beyond the 0.8000 psychological mark were key triggers for bullish traders. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index keeps a constructive bullish tone and stays in positive territory near 58 without yet signaling overbought conditions. This further suggests that underlying demand remains firmly in play.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits slightly below the zero line with a modestly negative reading, hinting that upside momentum is not fully convincing despite the supportive price structure. Nevertheless, the broader bias would likely stay tilted to the upside as long as the USD/CHF pair holds above the key SMA, with any pullbacks toward 0.8000 seen as a potential opportunity for bullish traders.
Furthermore, the 200-day SMA around 0.7919 might now act as an important technical floor should spot prices retreat further, and a convincing break below would be needed to shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. On the topside, a move above the 0.8145-0.8150 region, or the highest since July 2025, touched on Tuesday, will set the stage for an extension of the recent upward trajectory from 0.7760 or the May swing low.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
USD/CAD remains subdued after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.4050 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is testing the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle. A decisive close below the lower support line would signal that the sellers have taken control, suggesting a strong continuation or reversal to the downside. If buying pressure defends the lower line, the boundary holds, suggesting the price will reverse course and head back up to test the triangle's upper resistance line.
The USD/CAD is retreating from recent highs and slipping below the short-term dynamics reflected by the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which now caps the topside. The pair still holds above the 50-period EMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 has eased out of overbought territory, hinting that bullish momentum has faded and leaving the near-term bias tilted to the downside while price remains under the nine-period EMA.
The USD/CAD pair recorded nearly a monthly low of 1.4039 during the early hours, near the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.4014. A successful break below this confluence support zone would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the 21-month low of 1.3481, recorded on January 30.
On the upside, the USD/CAD pair may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 1.4130. A break above the short-term moving average would cause a bullish emergence and support the pair to test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 1.4240, aligned with the 15-month high of 1.4248, reached on June 24.
USD/CAD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.03%-0.00%0.02%-0.04%-0.18%-0.12%0.11%EUR0.03%-0.03%0.06%-0.02%-0.20%-0.15%0.14%GBP0.00%0.03%0.07%0.00%-0.17%-0.14%0.16%JPY-0.02%-0.06%-0.07%-0.06%-0.22%-0.16%0.08%CAD0.04%0.02%-0.00%0.06%-0.15%-0.14%0.15%AUD0.18%0.20%0.17%0.22%0.15%0.03%0.29%NZD0.12%0.15%0.14%0.16%0.14%-0.03%0.28%CHF-0.11%-0.14%-0.16%-0.08%-0.15%-0.29%-0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
The AUD/JPY pair broke past the 113.00 resistance level following previous quiet six session bounds between 111.95 and 112.81 Yen weakness was fueled by interest rate differences and market confusion over speculation that Japan's massive pension fund might relocate foreign assets back home The Aussie dollar found solid fundamental support as global commodity prices remained firm despite the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East After six sessions trading within a tight range of 111.95 to 112.81, the AUD/JPY pair moved decisively higher on Tuesday. It surpassed the 113.00 psychological level and continued its ascent today, nearing 113.39. So, what changed?
Speculation Over the World’s Largest Pension Fund Triggers Yen Selloff Headlines regarding Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) appear to be the primary driver behind the yen’s recent decline. Reports suggest the government is considering encouraging the massive pension fund to increase its investments in domestic assets to support local markets and the yen. While this sounds like it should strengthen the Japanese currency, the market reacted with immediate skepticism.
This skepticism stems from past attempts by the Japanese finance ministry to support the yen, which proved costly and ineffective. As CNBC reported, Tokyo’s finance ministry burned through roughly $73 billion defending the yen back in April and May, only to watch it slide right back toward the levels it started from.
Analysts suggest the yen’s weakness is rooted in structural issues. These include Japan’s growing public debt, a government focused on reflation, and inflation expectations that are not aligning with typical interest rate differentials.
On the Aussie side, the Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked its cash rate three times this year to 4.35%. Despite holding rates steady in June, RBA meeting minutes indicated ongoing concerns about inflation exceeding the target, with core inflation accelerating even as headline inflation eased.
A Finder survey of more than 40 economists shows 55% of them expect at least one more rate hike this year, likely in August. This policy stance supports Australian yields and the carry appeal of the Australian dollar.
Commodity prices and China’s economic performance also play a significant role. Australia, as a major exporter of iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas, benefits from resilient demand from China. Positive economic indicators from Beijing have bolstered risk sentiment and AUD strength.
Market Outlook Signals Bullish Bias with Caution This breakout suggests a constructive near-term outlook for AUD/JPY, potentially targeting higher levels if policy divergence persists and global risk conditions remain favorable.
For those considering trading this breakout, entering at current levels around 113.40 presents some short-term risk. A sustained move above 113.58 on a daily closing basis would be the next key level to watch, potentially opening the way toward 113.90 and the 52-week high zone around 114.90.
Below the surface, though, this rally is fragile. A significant risk to long positions is the potential for direct market intervention by the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance to support the yen. Such action could lead to a rapid and substantial decline in the AUD/JPY pair.
Why did AUD/JPY break above 113.00 this week?
The breakout was caused by a combination of RBA rate-hike expectations supporting the Aussie and persistent yen weakness tied to Japan’s debt concerns and ineffective currency intervention.
Is the Australian dollar actually getting stronger?
The Australian dollar’s appreciation appears to be more a reflection of yen weakness than a substantial increase in the Australian dollar’s strength, although RBA policy has contributed positively.
How does China’s economy influence Australian dollar strength?
Stronger Chinese demand for commodities like iron ore and coal increases Australia’s export revenues, improving its terms of trade and supporting the AUD.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Silver has risen nearly 2%, outperforming Gold’s 1.2% gain on the back of a softer US Dollar (USD) and reduced Fed hike expectations after weak core Consumer Price Index (CPI). They highlight Silver’s higher sensitivity to monetary conditions and risk appetite, expecting larger two-way swings unless Fed tightening expectations ease more sustainably, with key support at 55 and resistance at 61.20.
Outperformance tempered by volatility risks"Silver rose nearly 2% alongside gold (about 1.2%), supported by the softer USD, some push back in Fed hike expectations after core CPI underwhelmed. The stronger rebound partly reflects silver’s higher sensitivity to shifts in both monetary conditions and investor risk appetite. Near term, silver may outperform gold if the USD and yields extend lower."
"But conviction remains limited as oil-driven inflation risks persist. Without a more sustained easing in Fed tightening expectations, silver is likely to remain prone to larger two-way swings, rather than move into a clean recovery trend. Silver last seen at 58.80 levels."
"Daily momentum and RSI have yet to offer a clean read at this point. Two-way trades likely. Support at 55 levels (recent low year-to-date) before 49."
"Resistance at 61.20 (21 DMA) needs to be taken out for momentum to gain traction. Failing which, silver may well revert to trade near recent lows."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.1% at around 1.3403 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar comes under selling pressure, with market participants dialing down expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, has recovered its early losses and is marginally down to near 100.87. However, the DXY is still holding Tuesday’s losses.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates in the policy meeting this month have eased to 16.6% from 41.7% recorded on Monday.
Traders pare hawkish Fed bets as the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed on Tuesday that both headline and core inflation grew at a slower-than-expected pace.
In the United Kingdom (UK), Andy Burnham is set to replace Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer on July 20 and will likely appoint a new Finance Minister (FM). The smooth UK leadership transition is supporting the British Pound.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades slightly higher at around 1.3400, holding a mildly bullish near‑term bias as it remains above the 20‑period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3350. However, the overall trend appears sideways amid the Descending Triangle formation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.93 suggests steady, but not overextended, upside momentum.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the current price area around 1.3401, with the 20‑period EMA at 1.3350 reinforcing a nearby demand zone before the structural floor defined by the rising trend‑line break near 1.3166. On the topside, a sustained move above 1.3520, where the descending resistance trend line break level resides, would be needed to open the door for a more decisive bullish extension beyond the recent range. Above 1.3520, the pair could extend its advance towards 1.3600.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Silver’s recovery lost momentum below the $60 mark this week despite softer-than-expected US inflation, highlighting a macro backdrop that has become less supportive than many investors anticipated. Ordinarily, a downside surprise in CPI would trigger a broader Dollar selloff and provide precious metals with a meaningful tailwind. This time, however, the Dollar’s decline proved relatively shallow and uneven, while buying interest in Silver remained subdued. Together, those factors have kept the metal trapped within its recent trading range and preserved a bearish near-term outlook.
The first headwind has been the Dollar itself. Although the Dollar Index initially fell following June’s weaker CPI report, it recovered a meaningful portion of those losses after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability while avoiding any dovish policy signals during his congressional testimony. The Dollar’s weakness was also concentrated in a handful of currencies with their own domestic catalysts, particularly the Canadian Dollar, supported by stronger oil prices and a more hawkish Bank of Canada outlook, and the New Zealand Dollar following hawkish comments from RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway. Against the Euro, Sterling, Swiss Franc and Yen, Dollar weakness was comparatively modest. Without a broad-based decline in the US currency, Silver has struggled to attract the sustained buying that typically follows softer US inflation.
Muted demand has reinforced that pressure. While positioning data are not yet available to confirm investor behavior, price action suggests opportunistic buying following the CPI release was considerably weaker than in previous episodes of Dollar weakness. The inability to reclaim the $60 level despite an ostensibly supportive inflation report indicates that buyers remain cautious, leaving the metal vulnerable if the Dollar regains strength or Treasury yields move higher again.
Beyond the immediate macro backdrop, Silver also faces a more structural challenge through industrial demand. The market is currently in its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit, but unlike many commodities, higher prices do not necessarily generate a meaningful increase in supply. Around 70% of global Silver production comes as a by-product of copper, lead and zinc mining, meaning output decisions depend primarily on those metals rather than Silver prices. New mine development also typically requires seven to ten years, leaving demand adjustment as the principal mechanism for balancing the market.
That demand adjustment may already be underway. China’s largest solar manufacturer, Longi Green Energy, has begun commercial production using copper-metallized solar cells, reducing reliance on Silver in one of the metal’s fastest-growing industrial applications. Given that the solar sector accounted for roughly 17% of global Silver demand last year, broader adoption of copper metallization could gradually weaken one of Silver’s most important structural demand drivers. The transition is unlikely to transform the market overnight, but it represents a notable shift in the long-term balance between supply and demand.
Technically, the outlook remains bearish while resistance at 63.25 caps upside. A break below 55.59 would resume the broader decline from the record high of 121.83 to o 76.4% retracement of 28.28 to 121.83 at 50.35, which is close to 50 psychological level.
Conversely, sustained break above 63.25 would delay the bearish scenario and extend the corrective rebound toward with another rising leg to 38.2% retracement of 89.37 to 55.59 at 68.49 instead.
Until the Dollar weakens more broadly, however, Silver appears increasingly vulnerable to another leg lower.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
AUDUSD (The Australian dollar) remained choppy as consumer confidence jumped out of negative territory.
• As the pair searches for a recovery to the previous swing high at 0.6980, a bearish RSI divergence could signal a halt to the potential rally.
• 0.6960 is the first level to expect some resistance after the recent announcement.
• Further down, 0.6880 at the bottom of the latest bounce is the first layer of support if price action turns around.
• A full reversal can take shape back towards 0.6840 if bears remain in the market.
XAUUSD steadily sinking
Gold continues to be pressured as price action looks to break through the 4000 level.
• On the chart, the metal continues to grind lower after dropping over $100 in just a few short sessions.
• Bulls will need to lift 4120 and then 4190 to make the rebound count.
• Otherwise, renewed selling could send the price below 3930.
UK100 finding support
The index market across the board looks for a reprieve as energy prices are expected to rise.
• The FTSE 100 hit another low after last week’s sell-off.
• 10350 is a key level to keep the index afloat, as its breach could trigger a further continuation lower.
• Bulls will need to clear 10600 to put the index back on track as the RSI moves away from the oversold area, potentially causing a bullish divergence in the process.
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The GBP/JPY cross scales higher for the second straight day and climbs to a fresh weekly top, around the 217.70 region, during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Moreover, spot prices remain within striking distance of the highest level since January 2008 and seem poised to appreciate further amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.
Despite looming intervention risks, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance on the back of the wide gap in borrowing costs between Japan and other major economies, including the UK. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the short-term policy rate in June to 1% or, the highest level since 1995, while the Bank of England's (BoE) base rate sits at 3.75%. This leaves an approximate gap of 275 basis points (bps), which keeps the so-called JPY carry trade active and continues to act as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.
Meanwhile, Japan's economy is highly vulnerable to energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz as it relies on the Middle East for over 90% of crude oil imports. The closure of the critical waterway, along with a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, turns out to be another factor undermining the JPY. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, benefits from fading UK political uncertainty, hawkish BoE signals, and modest US Dollar (USD) weakness. This validates the positive outlook for the GBP/JPY cross and favors bulls.
Speaking before the Treasury Select Committee, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned on Tuesday of the potential effects of the resumption of the US-Iran conflict and that the event has demonstrated that inflation has not eased enough. Traders were quick to fully price in at least one 25 bps rate increase by year-end, and a possible first hike as early as September. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the upside, and any corrective pullback is more likely to be seen as an opportunity for bullish traders.
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Commodity-linked currencies strengthened after US inflation data came in weaker than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.5% year-on-year in June, below the 3.8% forecast, while core inflation eased to 2.6% versus expectations of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, while core CPI was unchanged. The moderation in inflationary pressure increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative policy stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting both the Australian and Canadian dollars against the greenback.
However, despite the weaker US dollar, the next move in USD/CAD will largely depend on the Bank of Canada’s policy decision. Later today, the central bank will announce its interest rate decision, publish its updated Monetary Policy Report, and hold a press conference with the Governor. If policymakers maintain a cautiously hawkish tone on inflation, the Canadian dollar could receive additional support. Conversely, a more dovish message may limit CAD gains despite the broader weakness in the US dollar.
Market participants will also focus on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide further insight into inflation trends following the softer CPI report. In addition, US crude oil inventory data could influence USD/CAD, as oil prices traditionally have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar.
AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair continues to develop the bullish engulfing reversal pattern. Yesterday, buyers managed to test the key resistance level around 0.7000. If the pair secures a sustained break above this level, the rally could extend towards the 0.7080–0.7130 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a move below 0.6900.
Key events for AUD/USD:
Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Market Index Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI) Today at 15:45 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member John Williams
USD/CAD Following confirmation of the bearish tower top reversal pattern, selling pressure on USD/CAD intensified, reinforced by the weaker-than-expected US inflation data. As a result, the pair declined below 1.4100. Technical analysis suggests there is scope for a further move lower towards the 1.3960–1.4020 area. A decisive break back above 1.4120 could revive the bullish outlook.
Key events for USD/CAD:
Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada interest rate decision Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada press conference
Overall, the weaker US inflation report strengthened expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve, weighing on the US dollar and supporting commodity-linked currencies. However, the next moves in AUD/USD and USD/CAD will depend on upcoming economic data and the Bank of Canada’s policy guidance.
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GBP/USD rose to 1.3403 on Wednesday, with British politics taking centre stage for investors.
The market is assessing the upcoming change of prime minister, with Andy Burnham set to take office on 20 July. Of additional interest is the potential candidate for the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. In betting markets, Ed Miliband is considered the favourite, whom investors perceive as a supporter of more active fiscal spending.
At the same time, market participants are monitoring escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and increased inflation risks. The United States has continued its strikes on Iran following Donald Trump’s restoration of a naval blockade on Iranian shipping and his proposal for a 20% fee to cover the costs of securing the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, markets have strengthened expectations of further rate hikes from the Bank of England. Investors are now almost fully pricing in two rate increases in 2026, with a September hike already largely reflected in quotes.
In the US, weaker-than-expected inflation data for June has eased pressure on the Federal Reserve. However, Christopher Waller warned that the regulator could tighten policy again if inflation remains above the 2% target.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is shaping a growth wave towards 1.3451. A wide consolidation range is practically forming around the 1.3393 level. An upside breakout from this range would open potential for the wave to continue to 1.3453. A downside breakout would suggest the potential for the wave to continue to 1.3333, with the prospect of the trend extending to 1.3090. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above the zero level and pointing strictly downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3400 level, currently extending down to 1.3370. An increase to 1.3451 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3330. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20.
Conclusion GBP/USD has edged higher as markets focus on the upcoming UK political transition, with Andy Burnham set to become prime minister on 20 July. The potential appointment of Ed Miliband as Chancellor-seen as favouring more active fiscal spending-adds an element of intrigue. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed US strikes on Iran and a proposed 20% fee for securing the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed oil prices higher and reinforced Bank of England tightening expectations. Markets are now pricing in two rate hikes for 2026, with September already priced in. In the US, softer inflation data has eased pressure on the Fed, though officials remain vigilant. Technically, the pound may see further upside towards 1.3451 before a potential pullback, with the broader direction hinging on UK political developments and geopolitical risks.
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US Dollar News: Softer Inflation Reshapes Fed Outlook The evolving monetary policies, particularly with the release of June’s inflation numbers in the United States, are causing shifts in the value of the dollar, sterling and the euro. U.S. annual inflation for July fell to 3.5% from June’s 4.2%, with core inflation also falling, to 2.6%. This caused a rapid decrease in the projected likelihood of a July 28-29 Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Demand for U.S. futures implied only a 10% likelihood of a July hike. Earlier estimates placed U.S. interest rate hikes at a 35% probability, indicating the bulk of interest rate conjecture has moved to September.
The euro has risen in value with speculation that the European Central Bank will keep the deposit rate at 2.25% and also Curb inflation and growth in the euro region.
The pound also remains strong as it is expected the Bank of England will continue to err on the side of caution. U.K. inflation has also been little influenced by renewed Middle Eastern conflict. Governor Andrew Bailey remains focused on other economic data.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Is DXY Building Momentum for a Move Toward $101.22? Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around the 100.88 mark, consolidating above the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement at $100.59 and the 50 EMA at $100.23. The 100 EMA at $99.66 is helping the uptrend. The last few DXY candlesticks display small bodies showing consolidation below $101.22, right after the bullish breakout from the previous descending triangle. $100.88 is the 0.382 Fibonacci level and is providing immediate support, while resistance sits at $101.22 and $101.79 respectively.
The RSI is at approximately 53, above the midpoint, and is showing a decrease in bullish momentum, but the uptrend is still there. As long as we observe DXY above $100.59, we can expect another attempt to reach $101.22, but if that fails, we may see $99.85.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Can the Rising Channel Extend the Rally Above $1.3450? GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.3405 and stays well within the confines of a rising channel on the 4 hour time frame. Price is above both the 50 EMA at 1.3370 and the 100 EMA at 1.3340 indicates that traders are still dominating the buying side of the market. Recent rejections of the 1.3400 support level have resulted in the formation of higher lows along the rising channel line. The most immediate resistance is found at 1.3453, while 1.3508 is a secondary resistance level.
The most significant support level is at 1.3342. The RSI is at 56 and indicates a bullish market, while the RSI is not at the overbought zone. Based on this market analysis I will be looking for buying opportunities above the 1.3400 level, the target being 1.3453 and with a break below the 1.3342 level the buy side market structure will be broken and this will be an indication of potential reversal in the market.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Will the Symmetrical Triangle Trigger the Next Breakout? EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is priced at 1.1423 and is forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-H chart. The price is around the 50 EMA at 1.1420 but is below the 100 EMA at 1.1435. This shows that buyers and sellers have not taken control of the market. The latest candlesticks show small bodies and long wicks suggesting indecision as the triangle’s apex is approached.
The first nearby resistance is at 1.1461, and the first nearby support is at 1.1412, then 1.1379. The RSI is at 51 and shows no market pressure, which supports consolidation. Given this analysis, I would prefer to see a confirmed breakout beyond 1.1461 with targets set at 1.1493. However, if the price closed below 1.1412, the target would be 1.1379.
The NZD/USD pair holds steady above the 0.5800 mark through the early European session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's late pullback from a nearly one-month high, around the 0.5845 zone. The latter also marks a confluence hurdle – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall – and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
Looking at the broader picture, the NZD/USD pair now seems to have found acceptance above the 50% retracement level and seems poised to extend the recent recovery from the 0.5625 area, or the year-to-date low touched in June. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 60. This validates the near-term constructive outlook and backs the case for additional gains.
That said, bulls might still need to wait for a sustained move beyond the 0.5845 confluence hurdle before placing fresh bets, as escalating US-Iran tensions might continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, a break above the said hurdle would open the way toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.5853, with stronger resistance seen higher at 0.5915 and the 0.5995 swing high, where the broader bearish bias would start to fade if reclaimed.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement near 0.5809, ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.5765 and deeper cushions at 0.5711 and 0.5623. The downside, however, seems limited in the wake of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt. Furthermore, receding bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this year might keep USD bulls on the back foot, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.15%-0.02%-0.07%-0.16%-0.04%-0.00%EUR0.08%-0.12%0.06%0.00%-0.13%-0.02%0.07%GBP0.15%0.12%0.15%0.11%-0.01%0.09%0.18%JPY0.02%-0.06%-0.15%-0.05%-0.15%-0.04%-0.00%CAD0.07%-0.00%-0.11%0.05%-0.10%-0.04%0.06%AUD0.16%0.13%0.01%0.15%0.10%0.08%0.14%NZD0.04%0.02%-0.09%0.04%0.04%-0.08%0.08%CHF0.00%-0.07%-0.18%0.00%-0.06%-0.14%-0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Euro (EUR) extends gains for the second consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, but remains trapped within the trading range seen over the last three weeks, with upside attempts capped below the 1.1470-1.1480 area so far. The Euro has taken advantage of a softer US Dollar, but the risk-off market is keeping bulls in check
The US Dollar took a hit on Tuesday as June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed inflation slowed to a 3.5% year-on-year pace, down from 4.2% in May and well below the consensus of 3.8%. Monthly inflation contracted 0.4%, its weakest reading in nearly six years.
These figures give the Federal Reserve (Fed) some margin to keep interest rates on hold at its July meeting and have prompted investors to dial down expectations of Fed rate hikes in the coming months. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 60% chance of a hike in September, down from 75% before the CPI release.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh showed a distinct hawkish tone at its first congressional testimony, vowing a “resolute commitment to restore price stability” and defending the central bank’s independence from political pressures. His comments, however, failed to lift the US Dollar.
In Europe, the European Central Bank Governor Martin Kocher said earlier on Wednesday that there is no sign of second-round inflationary effects from Iran’s war so far, but that the bank is ready to act if needed.
Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East continues to deteriorate. The US has closed the Strait of Hormuz for Iranian vessels, and US President Donald Trump threatened to target civilian infrastructure, like bridges and power plants. Tehran threatened to close other strategic energy routes. Market sentiment remains weak, with Oil prices pinned near monthly highs. All in all not the best scenario for a strong Euro recovery.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Gold has rebounded from sub-4000 levels after softer United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) prompted markets to pare Fed hike expectations and pushed USD and front-end US Treasury yields lower. They see the move as a reversal of excessive hawkish repricing rather than a macro regime shift, with further upside contingent on easing Oil prices and continued softness in US data.
Soft CPI lifts prices but constraints remain"Gold rebounded from sub-4000 levels. Softer-than-expected US CPI was the trigger as markets pared back Fed hike expectations while Fed Chair Warsh did not out-hawk earlier rhetoric. USD weakened and front-end US Treasury yields initially moved lower, helping gold recover from a two-week low to an intra-session high of 4102."
"This provides gold with some near-term breathing room, particularly if the USD and yields remain capped. But the move looks more like a reversal of excessive hawkish repricing than a decisive change in the macro backdrop. The June CPI report also predates the latest rise in oil prices, which could keep the inflation outlook and Fed policy expectations volatile."
"Further upside in gold would require oil prices to ease off further and continued softness in US data, with PPI the next test (tonight). "
"Gold last seen at 4051 levels. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart stays intact for now while RSI rose. 2-way trades likely. Resistance at 4113 (21 DMA). Support at 3940/60 levels (recent low in June)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD’s late-month advance has stalled, with the pair rebounding to 1.3442 before closing at 1.3387. Intraday, the British Pound (GBP) is expected to trade between 1.3360 and 1.3430. Over 1-3 weeks, they maintain a neutral stance, looking for range-trading between 1.3320 and 1.3445, while longer-term supports sit at 1.3210 and 1.3160.
Pound-Dollar trapped in sideways band"24-HOUR VIEW: After GBP declined as we expected two days ago, we highlighted yesterday that “there is scope for GBP to dip below 1.3340 and test 1.3320.” We added, “to keep the momentum going, GBP must hold below 1.3390.” Our view was incorrect, as after dipping to a low of 1.3346, GBP jumped during the NY session, reaching a high of 1.3442. GBP pulled back sharply from the high to close at 1.3387 (+0.31%). Despite the sharp advance, there has been no clear increase in upward momentum. The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, probably between 1.3360 and 1.3430."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (13 Jul, spot at 1.3375), we highlighted that “the GBP advance from late last month has ended.” We added, “for the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range between 1.3320 and 1.3445.” Although GBP rose near the top of our expected range yesterday with a high of 1.3442, it retreated quickly from the high. There has been no shift in momentum indicators, and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a range between 1.3320 and 1.3445."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver (XAG/USD) ticks lower on Wednesday, trading at $58.50 at the time of writing, after rejection at the $59.00 area on Tuesday. The sour market sentiment amid rising hostilities in Iran continues to weigh on the precious metal, offsetting the positive impact of a weaker US Dollar Index (DXY).
The Dollar extended losses on Tuesday, following a softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which cooled market expectations of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh maintained a hawkish tone in his first congressional testimony, assuring that the central bank will not tolerate persistent inflationary pressures, but he failed to lift the US Dollar.
Risk appetite, on the other hand, remains subdued as tensions escalate in Iran. The US military resumed the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for Iranian vessels, and US President Donald Trump threatened to target civilian infrastructure, like power plants and bridges. Tehran, in turn, has threatened the closure of other energy routes. Oil prices steadied right below one-month highs, and precious metals pulled back amid the sour market sentiment.
Technical Analysis: Silver threads water below the key $61.00 area
In the four-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $58.32, holding below the descending trendline resistance from late-May highs. A bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (14), which has reached the neutral area near 45, and a slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hint at fading downside momentum, although bullish attempts remain shallow for now.
Bulls should break the confluence of the mentioned trendline and the July 9 highs in the $61.00 area before July's trading top at the $63.30 area to confirm a trend shift. On the downside, initial support is seen at the late June lows around $55.70. A bearish reaction below these levels would expose the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the late-June sell-off, at $51.40.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The USD/JPY pair trades slightly lower at around 162.20 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair edges down as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms due to easing fears of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.18%-0.13%-0.05%-0.04%-0.17%-0.11%-0.05%EUR0.18%-0.01%0.13%0.15%-0.03%0.00%0.13%GBP0.13%0.00%0.11%0.13%-0.04%0.02%0.13%JPY0.05%-0.13%-0.11%0.00%-0.14%-0.08%-0.01%CAD0.04%-0.15%-0.13%-0.01%-0.14%-0.14%-0.01%AUD0.17%0.03%0.04%0.14%0.14%0.03%0.11%NZD0.11%-0.01%-0.02%0.08%0.14%-0.03%0.11%CHF0.05%-0.13%-0.13%0.01%0.01%-0.11%-0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.16% lower to near 100.78.
The US Dollar faces selling pressure as traders have trimmed hawkish Fed bets following the release of the soft United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June. The report showed that the headline and core inflation decelerated to 3.5% and 2.6% Year-on-Year (YoY), respectively.
Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated in his testimony on Tuesday that price stability is non-negotiable. “The Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” If we get policy right - and we will- the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past," Warsh said.
On the Tokyo front, investors seek fresh cues regarding whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USD/JPY trades lower at around 162.20, sticking to the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 162.10, which indicates a sideways trend. The formation of an Ascending Triangle chart pattern also reflects a sharp volatility contraction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.51 is neutral-to-positive, hinting that buying pressure is steady but not overstretched.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the descending trend line around 162.79, where a clear break would open the way for a stronger bullish extension. On the downside, initial support is seen at the rising trend-line break near 161.79; a downside move below the same would expose the pair to the July 3 low near 160.50.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate edged lower on Tuesday as stronger Australian confidence data and robust Chinese trade figures supported the ‘Aussie’.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.9254, down around 0.2% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.9273 (-0.11%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.338663 (+0.28%)
Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.69458 (+0.39%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened on Tuesday, supported by an improvement in domestic sentiment.
Australia’s latest consumer and business confidence indexes outperformed expectations in July and June, respectively.
This improvement was attributed to easing concerns over energy costs, interest rates and the labour market.
At the same time, demand for the ‘Aussie’ was also bolstered by some spectacular trade figures from its largest trading partner, China.
China recorded its second-largest trade surplus on record in June, with markets particularly impressed by the 36% surge in imports to an all-time high of $286.76bn.
The spike was welcomed by AUD investors as Australian exports are likely to have seen a bump amid the jump in demand.
Meanwhile, while placed on the defensive against the Australian Dollar, the Pound (GBP) traded positively against most of its other peers on Tuesday amid renewed expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike.
Bets for a rate hike before the end of 2026 have risen amid the fresh rise in energy prices as the resumption of hostilities in the Gulf has closed the Strait of Hormuz again.
However, the Pound’s upside potential was simultaneously capped by remarks from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.
Speaking to the Treasury Select Committee, Bailey warned of potential instability stemming from the conflict as well as flagging the UK’s slow growth as a major risk to the economy.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Slowing Chinese GDP to Drag on the ‘Aussie’? Looking ahead to the middle of the week, the publication of China’s latest GDP figures could influence the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate.
The ‘Aussie’ may face headwinds as consensus estimates predict Chinese economic growth will have cooled in the second quarter.
Meanwhile, notable UK economic releases are in short supply on Wednesday, which may leave movement in Sterling to be dictated by wider market trends.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rallied on Tuesday after softer-than-expected US inflation data prompted investors to scale back expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3411, up approximately 0.5% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.338178 (+0.24%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.142849 (+0.40%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.13999 (-0.17%)
DAILY RECAP:
A clear US Dollar (USD) selling bias emerged on Tuesday after the latest US consumer price index showed inflationary pressures eased by more than expected last month.
June's Consumer Price Index reported that headline inflation slowed from 4.2% to 3.5% year-on-year, comfortably below forecasts for a more modest easing to 3.8%. Core inflation also undershot expectations, with annual core CPI easing to 2.6%.
In response, financial markets trimmed some of their more hawkish policy expectations for the Federal Reserve, with the odds for a September interest rate hike falling from around 70% to 50%.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) found support during Tuesday's session as investors doubled down on bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will have to raise borrowing costs again.
The hawkish shift in market sentiment stems from a fresh spike in global energy markets. With conflict flaring up once more in the Gulf, the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane has been blocked, raising fears of a renewed inflation shock that could force the BoE’s hand before 2026 draws to a close.
Even so, Sterling's rally was tempered by cautious commentary from the head of the BoE.
Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey struck a sober tone. He pointed out that the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East poses a serious threat to financial stability, while simultaneously reminding lawmakers that Britain's sluggish economic growth remains a heavy drag on the domestic outlook.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Producer Prices in Focus Looking ahead, the next catalyst of movement for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will be the publication of the latest US producer price index on Wednesday.
A cooling in factory gate prices could weigh on the ‘Greenback’ in midweek trade, as we could see a further trimming of Fed rate-hike bets if there are further signs that US inflationary pressures are easing.
Meanwhile, movement in the Pound looks set to remain limited on Wednesday amid a lull in UK data ahead of Thursday’s GDP release.
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.1462 after weaker United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) before retreating to 1.1419. Near term, they see the Euro confined to a 1.1390–1.1455 band, with broader 1-3 weeks expectations of range-trading between 1.1390 and 1.1475. A key medium-term focus is whether the 1.1390/1.1410 support zone holds, as a break would target 1.1210.
Euro-Dollar seen locked in ranges"24-HOUR VIEW: While we highlighted yesterday that “there is a chance for EUR to drop below 1.1360,” we indicated that “a continued drop below this level appears unlikely.” However, EUR only retested the previous day’s low of 1.1377 (low was 1.1376). During the NY session, EUR briefly spiked to a high of 1.1462, retreating quickly to close at 1.1419 (+0.33%). The brief rise did not result in any significant increase in momentum. Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1390 and 1.1455."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have expected EUR to trade in a 1.1360/1.1450 range since last week. After EUR dropped to a low of 1.1377 two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday (14 Jul, spot at 1.1385): “The slight increase in downward momentum is insufficient to indicate a sustained decline. EUR must close below 1.1360 before a move to 1.1325 can be expected. The likelihood of EUR closing below 1.1360 will remain intact as long as EUR holds below 1.1445.” EUR subsequently broke above 1.1445 as it briefly rose to 1.1462. The mild downward momentum has eased, and EUR has likely reverted into a range-trading phase, most likely between 1.1390 and 1.1475."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
British Pound advances as US Dollar remains subdued following inflation dataGBP/USD rises for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3400 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds losses following softer-than-expected US inflation data, fueling hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might adopt a less hawkish monetary stance.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year in June, dropping from a three-year high of 4.2% in May and coming in well below the market consensus of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI actually declined by 0.4% in June, a notable shift from the 0.5% increase recorded in May. Read more...
British Pound gains traction above 1.3400 as softer US CPI dampens Fed rate hike expectationsThe GBP/USD pair gains ground to near 1.3405 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) weakens against the British Pound (GBP) as softer-than-expected US inflation in June tempered expectations for US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy tightening. The release of the US June Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be in the spotlight later in the day.
US inflation slowed more than expected in June, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.5% YoY in June, compared to 4.2% in May, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Tuesday. This figure came in cooler than the expectation of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI declined by 0.4% in June, versus a rise of 0.5% prior. Read more...
The softest US inflation print in six years buys British Pound Sterling about four hoursCable trades just beneath the 1.3400 handle late in Tuesday's session, pinned under a 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) that sits a few pips shy of the figure and has capped every recovery attempt for two weeks. The softest US inflation report in six years landed at 12:30 GMT; the pair spiked to within a few pips of 1.3450 and has since handed the entire move back.
Tuesday's rejection carries more weight than one headline normally earns: the bounce from early July's trough near 1.3150 has run directly into the falling 200-day average, the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index is stretched above 80, and Sterling must now explain why the best inflation news the Dollar could hand it was worth roughly four hours of gains. Read more...
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 486.91 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 489.37 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,679.28 per tola from SAR 5,707.96 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
486.91
10 Grams
4,869.15
Tola
5,679.28
Troy Ounce
15,144.95
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,992.59 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,031.16 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,225.09 per tola from PHP 93,673.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,992.59
10 Grams
79,927.12
Tola
93,225.09
Troy Ounce
248,597.60
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after reports regarding the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF).
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government is considering nudging the world's largest pension fund to buy domestic financial assets to support the currency, though concrete plans have yet to materialize. However, traders remain on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities, which might cap the upside for the cross.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a near-term bullish bias as price extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band, keeping the broader uptrend supported. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.23 sits in positive territory without entering overbought conditions, suggesting that buying pressure remains constructive but not overstretched.
On the topside, the next notable resistance is the upper Bollinger band, emerging around 113.55, where the current advance could start to face profit-taking. The next hurdle to watch is the May 14 high of 114.66. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger midline near 112.35, while deeper pullbacks would likely be cushioned by the lower Bollinger band around 111.15.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's pullback from the 1.1460-1.1470 horizontal resistance, though it remains confined within a multi-week-old range. Spot prices trade around the 1.1435-1.1440 region during the Asian session on Wednesday, up for the second straight day amid modest US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Softer-than-expected US consumer inflation data, released on Tuesday, forced traders to scale back their expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, which keeps the USD bulls depressed and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. However, inflation risks stemming from elevated crude oil prices and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's price stability commitment, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, should limit deeper USD losses and cap the currency pair.
The EUR/USD pair has been struggling to find acceptance and build on its strength beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. Adding to this, momentum indicators hint at scope for corrective upticks rather than a clear trend reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests improving but still moderate bullish momentum.
This further warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the EUR/USD pair and positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from the 1.1325 region, or the year-to-date low touched in June. The subsequent resistance below the 23.6% Fibo. aligns at the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, near 1.1490, with the 38.2% retracement near 1.1523 and the 50.0% level around 1.1585 acting as the next relevant hurdles.
On the downside, the main structural support emerges at the Fibonacci anchor close to 1.1323, and a clear break under this floor would likely reinforce the broader bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.05%-0.08%-0.10%-0.17%-0.03%-0.00%EUR0.16%0.05%0.07%0.05%-0.06%0.07%0.15%GBP0.05%-0.05%0.02%-0.01%-0.11%0.02%0.09%JPY0.08%-0.07%-0.02%-0.03%-0.11%0.03%0.06%CAD0.10%-0.05%0.01%0.03%-0.07%0.00%0.10%AUD0.17%0.06%0.11%0.11%0.07%0.11%0.16%NZD0.03%-0.07%-0.02%-0.03%-0.01%-0.11%0.07%CHF0.00%-0.15%-0.09%-0.06%-0.10%-0.16%-0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 527.86 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 530.24 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,156.83 per tola from MYR 6,184.65 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
527.86
10 Grams
5,278.58
Tola
6,156.83
Troy Ounce
16,418.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,508.14 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,563.42 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,893.20 per tola from INR 146,537.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,508.14
10 Grams
125,082.10
Tola
145,893.20
Troy Ounce
389,046.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,877.39 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,075.30 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 418,466.30 per tola from PKR 420,775.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,877.39
10 Grams
358,773.50
Tola
418,466.30
Troy Ounce
1,115,912.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 476.29 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 478.46 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,555.15 per tola from AED 5,580.62 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
476.29
10 Grams
4,762.73
Tola
5,555.15
Troy Ounce
14,814.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers after failing to find acceptance above the $4,100 mark the previous day, though it holds above the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Despite soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, investors remain worried about energy-driven inflation as escalating US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain supportive of elevated crude oil prices. Furthermore, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the price stability commitment in his first congressional testimony, leaving the door open for at least one rate hike by year's end. This, to a large extent, offsets modest US Dollar (USD) weakness and turns out to be a key factor exerting some pressure on the non-yielding bullion.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.4% in June, representing the largest one-month decrease since April 2020 and missing expectations of a 0.1% fall. Furthermore, the core gauge, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was flat in June, compared to 0.3% consensus estimate. On a yearly basis, the headline and the core CPI decelerated to 3.5% and 2.6%, respectively, also missing forecasts. The data prompted traders to trim expectations of Fed rate hikes and dragged the USD to a nearly four-week low. The initial market reaction, however, faded quickly after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress that the central bank had no tolerance for persistently high inflation, while also touting the strength of the US economy.
Moreover, the recent rise in crude oil prices to a nearly one-month high poses a direct inflation risk, backing the case for further tightening by the Fed. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs, either in September or December. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the safe-haven buck. The US military launched another round of airstrikes against Iran, while Iran retaliated with attacks on US military assets in Gulf countries. Moreover, US President Donald Trump warned that the US would strike Iranian bridges and power plants unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside. Traders now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which, along with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's second day of congressional testimony, should influence the USD. Apart from this, the market focus will be on further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, which might continue to infuse volatility in financial markets and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the precious metal.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold remains vulnerable below 200-day SMA as descending channel remains in playThe XAU/USD pair holds within a downward parallel channel and well beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps the broader tone capped despite the recent bounce. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive and is edging higher, hinting at improving but still constrained upside momentum as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingers around a neutral 40.80 level.
Hence, the top boundary of the channel near $4,140.69 might continue to act as the first meaningful barrier within the current structure. A sustained strength beyond the said hurdle is needed to ease the prevailing bearish bias. On the downside, the lower end of the descending channel around $3,718.03 offers the next key support, where a stronger reaction would be needed to suggest that sellers are losing control of the near-term trend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Interest rates FAQs Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
By the time the Bank of Canada announces its policy decision today, the Canadian Dollar has already built a powerful foundation for further gains. USD/CAD has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a month, supported not by a single catalyst but by three reinforcing forces: a broad retreat in the US Dollar after softer inflation data, higher oil prices that strengthen Canada’s export outlook, and growing expectations that the Bank of Canada may sound more hawkish than markets anticipated only a week ago.
The first two drivers have already reshaped the currency outlook. June’s weaker-than-expected US CPI prompted investors to scale back Federal Reserve tightening expectations, weighing on the Dollar across major currency pairs. At the same time, Brent crude has surged above $86 as renewed US-Iran hostilities threaten energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. For Canada, rising oil prices are more than just a global inflation story—they improve the country’s terms of trade and typically provide direct support for the Canadian Dollar, helping explain why the Loonie has outperformed most of its peers following the inflation data.
The Bank of Canada now has an opportunity either to reinforce or challenge that momentum. Economists overwhelmingly expect a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25%, making the decision itself unlikely to surprise. The more important question is whether Governor Tiff Macklem adjusts his message in response to oil’s renewed surge. His previous characterization of policy as balancing weaker growth against energy-driven inflation was formed before Brent’s latest rally, meaning the Monetary Policy Report may already understate current inflation risks. Markets will therefore pay closer attention to Macklem’s live assessment than to the published projections.
That leaves the accompanying statement and Macklem’s press conference as the key market events. Investors will focus on whether the Governor continues to describe policy as a balanced dilemma or acknowledges that the renewed energy shock has tilted inflation risks higher. Any discussion of the ongoing CUSMA trade review will also be closely watched, as it remains an important downside risk to Canada’s growth outlook. Even without signaling an imminent rate increase, a modestly more hawkish tone could encourage markets to further increase expectations of tightening in early 2027, where pricing is already becoming increasingly balanced.
Technically, USD/CAD is approaching an important inflection point. While the decline from 1.4247 has accelerated, it is still viewed as a correction within the broader uptrend from 1.3480. Strong support is expected between former resistance at 1.3965 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954. Break of 1.4159 minor resistance will indicae that the correction has completed.
However, a decisive break below 1.3954/65 would suggest the advance from 1.3480 has completed as a three-wave corrective rebound after failing near 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Such a development would shift the near-term technical outlook decisively in favour of further Canadian Dollar strength.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
The Brent oil has shown positive momentum around the $87, while the WTI oil remains strong at $80. US strikes against Iran have reignited worries over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If oil prices remain above $80, it would boost transport and production costs. This may force the Fed to keep the interest rates higher for longer and cap the potential gains of gold and silver.
The short term momentum for gold and silver may remain uncertain due to the uncertainty from the Middle East crisis. A further escalation may boost the oil prices and inflation which may keep the precious metals under pressure.
Gold Price Forecast: $4,200 Resistance Caps CPI Rebound Spot gold prices rebounded higher after the inflation data, but the rebound was limited below $4,200. The price again continued lower and remains under bearish pressure. As long as the gold price remains below the $4,200 area in the short term, the likelihood of downside pressure will remain. The RSI has also reached the mid-level and indicates that prices may continue to consolidate at lower levels before the next move.
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 185.40 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is retaining a mildly bullish tone as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The currency cross is comfortably supported by these near-term averages, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 suggests steady but not overstretched upside momentum, hinting that buyers remain in control without pushing the cross into overbought territory.
The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross is positioned near the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.60, signaling a potential bullish emergence. It shows that buyers are aggressively pushing the price up, testing a breakout. A decisive close above this line confirms the breakout, typically triggering a sharp rally toward the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.12, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.00. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.80. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.18%-0.07%-0.10%-0.11%-0.20%-0.08%-0.05%EUR0.18%0.05%0.07%0.04%-0.08%0.04%0.12%GBP0.07%-0.05%0.02%-0.02%-0.13%-0.01%0.07%JPY0.10%-0.07%-0.02%-0.03%-0.11%0.00%0.04%CAD0.11%-0.04%0.02%0.03%-0.08%-0.01%0.09%AUD0.20%0.08%0.13%0.11%0.08%0.09%0.15%NZD0.08%-0.04%0.01%-0.00%0.01%-0.09%0.08%CHF0.05%-0.12%-0.07%-0.04%-0.09%-0.15%-0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
GBP/USD started a fresh increase above 1.3300 and 1.3350. A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.3370 on the 4-hour chart. Gold struggled near $4,120 and corrected some gains. WTI Crude Oil prices gained pace for a move above $80.00. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound remained in a positive zone above 1.3320 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD corrected some gains from 1.3450, but the bulls protected losses.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3140 swing low to the 1.3451 high. Besides, the pair remained stable above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
The pair is again rising above 1.3400. On the upside, the bears might remain active near 1.3435 and 1.3450. The next major resistance might be 1.3500.
A close above 1.3500 could start a steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3620. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find support near 1.3370. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3370.
The first major support could be near 1.3300 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.3300 might send the pair toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3260. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.3200.
Looking at EUR/USD, the pair recovered some losses, but the bears are still active near the 1.1475 resistance zone.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US Producer Price Index for June 2026 (MoM) – Forecast 0%, versus +1.1% previous. US Producer Price Index for June 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +6.2%, versus +6.5% previous. Fed’s Cook speech. Fed’s Beige Book.
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Silver price (XAG/USD) inches lower after registering gains in the previous day, trading around $58.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The price of the non-yielding white metal could rebound as softer-than-expected US inflation data fueled hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might adopt a less hawkish monetary stance.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year in June, dropping from a three-year high of 4.2% in May and coming in well below the market consensus of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI actually declined by 0.4% in June, a notable shift from the 0.5% increase recorded in May.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability during congressional testimony on Tuesday but refrained from signaling a more aggressive policy stance.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are now pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. This shift comes as renewed tensions between the US and Iran drive up oil prices, keeping inflation concerns firmly on investors' radars.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7910 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7990 and 6.7695 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone between the key resistance level 1.9365 (former monthly high from March), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December.
The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3 of the medium-term impulse wave (C) from June.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.9365 and the overbought daily Stochastic, GBPAUD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.9115.
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Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to around $4,050 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rebounds as softer-than-expected US inflation data boosted hopes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) adopting a less hawkish stance.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.5% YoY in June from the three-year high it set at 4.2% in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI declined by 0.4% in June, versus a rise of 0.5% in May.
The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged on a monthly basis, and it was up 2.6% on a yearly basis, compared to the 2.9% increase seen in May and the market expectation of 2.8%. After the softer inflation data, traders exited bets that the Fed would hike rates at its July 28-29 meeting, supporting the yellow metal.
"Gold gallops higher on a surprisingly subdued CPI report that saw headline dive lower but more importantly, core unchanged versus 0.2%. This should drop rate hike expectations sharply at least for the July and September meetings," said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.
Nonetheless, oil-driven inflation concerns could prompt the US central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold. US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces said it has “begun launching an additional round of strikes against Iran to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, stated that the US military’s attack on a ranger post in Hormozgan is “the latest example of America’s heinous war crimes."
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
