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The GBP/USD pair trades almost flat at around 1.3355 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Cable consolidates as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 101.05.

Investors will closely read the FOMC Minutes to gauge possible reasons that led officials to abandon forward guidance on the monetary policy outlook. In the policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, citing upside inflation risks, and 9 out of 19 policymakers favored an interest rate hike by the year-end.

Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) struggles for direction as investors seek fresh cues regarding the United Kingdom’s (UK) fiscal policy outlook under new leadership. However, newly elected Member of Parliament and Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, the front-runner for UK leadership after Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer’s resignation, has already stated that he will continue Labour’s manifesto.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades calmly near 1.3355, holding a mildly bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3321.

The bounce from the recent 1.32 area and the pair’s ability to stay supported by the short-term EMA hint at a tentative recovery phase, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.8 shows modest positive momentum without entering overbought territory.

On the topside, the next significant barrier is the downward resistance trend line, with its break level around 1.3500. Looking down, the immediate support is reinforced by the 20-day EMA at 1.3321, and a daily close back below this level would weaken the current constructive tone and force the pair to revisit the June 24 low at around 1.3140.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Jul 08, 2026 18:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: -

Previous: -

Source: Federal Reserve

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 487.15 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 484.80 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to AED 5,682.11 per tola from AED 5,654.64 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

487.15

10 Grams

4,871.58

Tola

5,682.11

Troy Ounce

15,152.18

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to near $60.35, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal edges higher amid a softer US Dollar (USD) ahead of the release of the June FOMC meeting Minutes.

The US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the already fragile ceasefire. 

“US Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway,” Centcom said on Tuesday.

The latest developments could raise energy-driven inflationary fears and reaffirm the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) "higher for longer" policy stance, which would weigh on the white metal.

Traders are currently pricing in over an 80% probability that the Fed will deliver at least one 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the end of this year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The US central bank will release the Minutes from its June 16–17 policy meeting later in the day. However, the messages recorded in the Minutes happened before the US June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which came in weaker than expected. Because the Fed Minutes reflect a labor market that still looked solid at mid-day June, any hawkish rhetoric might feel slightly outdated to current market pricing.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) first rate hike in three years and reclaims the 0.5700 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices stick to intraday gains in the wake of the central bank's hawkish outlook, saying that further rate increases appear likely at the coming meetings. Moreover, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action backs the case for a further appreciating move for the currency pair as the market focus shifts to the release of the FOMC Minutes, due later today.

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently placed near the 0.5715 confluence hurdle – comprising the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June fall. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent recovery from the year-to-date low, touched last month.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.98 is mildly constructive, though this improving momentum only hints at consolidation rather than a clear topside break while the NZD/USD pair stays beneath the aforementioned barrier. A sustained strength, however, should pave the way for a move towards the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.5767 and the 50% retracement near 0.5811. Further up, the 61.8% retracement at 0.5855, the 78.6% level at 0.5917, and the cycle high at 0.5996 form successive resistances for any recovery.

On the downside, the only notable structural support in view emerges at the Fibonacci anchor around 0.5626, where buyers would be expected to show interest if the pair extends its decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

NZD/USD 4-hour chart

RBNZ FAQs The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.

Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.

In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.

EUR/USD maintains its position after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1410 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders’ attention is focused on Wednesday's release of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting Minutes, the first under newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, for crucial clues regarding the future path of US interest rates.

The EUR/USD holds minor gains as the US Dollar (USD) inches lower after experiencing volatility. The Greenback may regain its ground amid rising safe-haven demand and renewing geopolitical tensions. US airstrikes against Iran came in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that the era of bullying and extortion has ended and insisted that Iran will not fold under pressure. Meanwhile, the country's top joint military command denounced the attacks on southern Iran as blatant aggression, promising a crushing military response. Defiant over the strategic waterway, Tehran reaffirmed that it will block any US interference regarding the control and management of the Strait of Hormuz.

European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike bets rose after board member Isabel Schnabel warned that the Iran conflict keeps core inflation elevated. ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Italy Fabio Panetta warned Eurozone inflation risks remain high due to energy supply uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz.

ECB’s Panetta scores 6.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, notably above the historic 4.2/10 baseline, signaling a more impactful intervention than usual. The focus on Strait of Hormuz uncertainty and increasingly frequent supply shocks underscores persistent upside inflation risks, tilting the tone modestly hawkish despite clear concern about downside growth.

By stressing that upside inflation and downside growth risks remain and that the outlook is fragile, the speech reinforces a narrative of constrained policy flexibility. For FX, this mix of inflation vigilance and growth anxiety suggests limited support for the Euro, with markets likely to price in lingering risk premia rather than a confident policy tightening path.

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 540.92 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 538.27 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,309.38 per tola from MYR 6,278.23 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

540.92

10 Grams

5,409.28

Tola

6,309.38

Troy Ounce

16,824.97

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak after falling to sub-$4,100 levels, or the weekly trough touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on a modest uptick as bulls turn cautious ahead of the release of the June FOMC meeting Minutes. This is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the bullion. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from levels just above the $4,200 mark, or a two-week high set on Monday, has run its course.

The US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the already fragile ceasefire. Traders were quick to price in the geopolitical risk premium amid concerns about a further escalation of tensions, which might continue to benefit the Greenback's reserve currency status and cap the Gold price. The US also moved to withdraw a key concession that allowed Iran to sell oil on international markets, triggering a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices on Tuesday. The latest developments revive energy-driven inflationary fears and reaffirm the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) "higher for longer" policy stance.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in over an 80% chance that the US central bank will deliver at least one 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the end of this year. Adding to this, expectations of a more hawkish tone in the Fed Minutes push US Treasury bond yields higher. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond rose to 4.567%, and the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.189% on Wednesday. This, in turn, favors the USD bulls and should contribute to keeping a lid on the non-yielding Gold. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets on the XAU/USD pair.

XAU/USD daily chart

Gold is likely to attract fresh sellers at higher levels amid bearish technical setupFrom a technical perspective, the precious metal remains entrenched inside a downward-sloping channel and retains a bearish near-term bias below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, hinting at a short-term recovery attempt. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.33 stays below the midline, reinforcing a still-cautious tone rather than a sustained bullish reversal.

This, in turn, suggests that rallies are likely to face stiff resistance and remain capped by overhead supply near the channel’s upper boundary at $4,164.35, despite improving momentum. A convincing breakout through the said barrier and a subsequent move beyond the 200-day SMA at $4,491.30, which marks a more significant barrier, would be needed to ease the broader bearish pressure.

On the downside, the first meaningful structural support aligns with the channel’s lower boundary around $3,713.85. Buyers may attempt to defend the broader trend floor if the current rebound fails and XAU/USD resumes its slide within the bearish channel.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.02%0.03%0.15%-0.03%-0.18%-0.48%0.03%EUR0.02%0.05%0.19%-0.01%-0.15%-0.46%0.04%GBP-0.03%-0.05%0.11%-0.06%-0.23%-0.51%-0.03%JPY-0.15%-0.19%-0.11%-0.18%-0.32%-0.64%-0.14%CAD0.03%0.00%0.06%0.18%-0.15%-0.46%0.03%AUD0.18%0.15%0.23%0.32%0.15%-0.31%0.16%NZD0.48%0.46%0.51%0.64%0.46%0.31%0.49%CHF-0.03%-0.04%0.03%0.14%-0.03%-0.16%-0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/JPY pares its recent losses from the previous day, trading around 185.30 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is retaining a mildly bullish bias as it holds above the Volume-weighted Average Price (VWAP) and a cluster of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 50-day EMA acting as nearby trend support.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.81 sits just above its midline, hinting at steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum while price remains supported by these underlying levels.

Daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling that both buyers and sellers are growing increasingly aggressive as they compress the price into a narrowing range. This tight consolidation reflects a temporary balance of power, with neither side establishing clear control over the market's direction just yet.

The initial barrier lies at the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.80. A break above the triangle would cause the bullish emergence and expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the VWAP at 185.20, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.95 and the nine-day EMA at 184.93. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.02%0.02%0.15%-0.03%-0.22%-0.49%0.01%EUR0.02%0.05%0.19%-0.01%-0.19%-0.47%0.04%GBP-0.02%-0.05%0.13%-0.05%-0.25%-0.51%-0.03%JPY-0.15%-0.19%-0.13%-0.18%-0.35%-0.64%-0.15%CAD0.03%0.00%0.05%0.18%-0.18%-0.47%0.03%AUD0.22%0.19%0.25%0.35%0.18%-0.28%0.19%NZD0.49%0.47%0.51%0.64%0.47%0.28%0.49%CHF-0.01%-0.04%0.03%0.15%-0.03%-0.19%-0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

AUD/NZD declines after three days of gains, trading around 1.2170 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross falls nearly 0.25% as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains ground following the release of the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

The RBNZ raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its June policy meeting, matching widespread market expectations. According to the central bank's Monetary Policy Review, further reductions in monetary stimulus will likely be necessary to steer inflation back to its 2% target midpoint as economic activity strengthens. The RBNZ noted that future OCR adjustments will remain strictly data-dependent, guided by incoming economic indicators, price-setting behavior, and medium-term inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highlighted that the Australian economy remains resilient despite recent oil price shocks denting consumer and business confidence.

Hunter reiterated the RBA's commitment to taking necessary action to curb inflation and maintain sustainable full employment. Despite this hawkish reminder, financial markets continue to price in a pause for the August meeting, expecting the RBA to hold its cash rate steady after delivering three interest rate hikes earlier this year.

RBNZ FAQs The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.

Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.

In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Key Highlights

Gold started a recovery wave from the $3,950 region. A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $4,180 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil started a consolidation phase below the $72.50 resistance. Bitcoin recovered some losses and tested the $65,000 resistance. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold found bids near $3,940 and $3,950 against the US Dollar. The price started a correction wave and climbed above the $4,000 resistance.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price surpassed $4,080, $4,120, and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $4,382 swing high to the $3,941 swing low. It even cleared the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours) but stayed below the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours).

The bears seem to be active below $4,200. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,180 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

If the bears remain in action, the price could revisit the $4,095 support. The first major support sits at $4,045. The next support could be $4,000, below which the price might slide to $3,940.

The main support sits at $3,880. Any more losses might call for a test of $3,650 or even $3,500 in the coming days. On the upside, immediate resistance could be $4,185. The next major resistance might be near a trend line at $4,200.

A clear move above $4,200 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,275 or even $4,300. Any more gains might send the price toward the $4,350 level.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price started a minor recovery wave, but it might face resistance near $72.50 and $73.20.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

FOMC Meeting Minutes.

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On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8077 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8054 and 6.8018 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

Sticky inflation expectations revive Fed hike fears Risk appetite deteriorates as tech stocks tumble Bearish engulfing pattern strengthens AUD/USD downside risks RBNZ, FOMC minutes headline today's event risk AUD/USD came under pressure on Tuesday as both of its dominant drivers moved against it. As things stand, the pair is behaving like a two-part front-end rates pricing, one-part risk appetite play. If that relationship holds, traders should keep a close eye on US rate expectations, developments in the Strait of Hormuz and performance of risk assets in Asia on Wednesday.

A shift in market dynamics The correlation matrix below highlights an important shift in recent market dynamics. Rather than behaving as a pure risk proxy, AUD/USD has increasingly traded as a relative rates play over the past week, with Australia-US front-end yield spreads emerging as the dominant driver of price action.

Source: TradingView

Inflation expectations bite The biggest driver of the overnight repricing in Fed expectations came from the New York Fed's June Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median one-year inflation expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 3.7%, the highest level since September 2023, while three-year expectations climbed by the same amount to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. Crucially, both measures increased despite respondents expecting gasoline prices to rise at the slowest pace since August 2022.

Source: TradingView

With inflation having remained above target for more than five years, a renewed pickup in inflation expectations despite easing energy price pressures is unlikely to make for comfortable reading at the Federal Reserve.

Markets responded by adding to Fed tightening bets, with futures now implying around 42 basis points of additional tightening over the next 12 months, up from around 33.5 basis points this time yesterday. While firmer oil prices and heavy Treasury issuance also helped push yields higher, the New York Fed's inflation expectations survey appeared to be the primary catalyst behind the repricing, coming in the absence of any other major US economic releases.

Source: TradingView

That helped lift US front-end Treasury yields relative to Australian government debt, extending the recent narrowing in the Australia-US two-year yield spread and adding to the downside pressure on AUD/USD.

Risk appetite retreats Risk sentiment also proved to be a headwind for the Aussie. Technology stocks remained under pressure amid growing questions over whether excessive AI infrastructure spending remains warranted, with Amazon's latest bond offering attracting softer demand than a similar deal earlier this year. Even Samsung's blowout earnings earlier in the session failed to satisfy investors' lofty expectations, extending the recent bout of profit-taking across semiconductor stocks.

Geopolitical tensions also intensified after renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted the United States to revoke the licence permitting Iranian crude exports and launch retaliatory strikes against Iranian military targets, adding to the cautious tone across markets.

Today's key risks Looking ahead, the first scheduled risk event comes at 11am AEST when the RBA’s chief economist Sarah Hunter speaks at the Australian Conference of Economists in Canberra. With little major Australian economic data released recently, the speech may not offer fresh insights in the outlook for monetary policy, although markets will be alert for any changes in tone.

Attention will then turn to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy decision at midday AEST. While the event is centred on New Zealand, it often spills over into AUD/USD, with the Australian dollar typically moving in the same direction as the kiwi, albeit to a lesser extent.

The performance of Asian risk assets will also warrant close attention after Tuesday's heavy losses across Japanese and Korean technology stocks. Should that weakness extend into today's session, it would add another headwind for a currency that continues to display a meaningful positive relationship with broader measures of risk appetite.

Focus later in the session will then shift to the release of the June FOMC minutes, the first under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders should be prepared for the format and level of detail to differ from previous iterations. However, with half of policymakers projecting at least one rate hike this year and Warsh striking a hawkish tone at his post-meeting press conference, markets should approach the release expecting the minutes to reinforce that hawkish message.

Bears regain control

Source: TradingView

The technical picture has turned more constructive for bears following the formation of a engulfing candle on the daily timeframe on Tuesday. The reversal came after AUD/USD's rebound from just above the 200-day moving average stalled at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-June 2026 bull move, adding weight to the signal given it occurred at a well-defined resistance level. While confirmation is still required, the setup points to an increased risk of a retest of the 200-day moving average at 0.6872 and the late-June swing low at 0.6866.

More broadly, the pair remains in a well-defined downtrend, continuing to post lower highs and lower lows. Momentum indicators remain broadly bearish despite showing signs of stabilising. RSI (14) remains below the neutral 50 level and has broken the minor uptrend in place over the past fortnight, while MACD has crossed above its signal line but remains deeply negative. Rather than providing a green light for bulls, the crossover looks more like a warning that downside momentum may be easing rather than reversing. The bearish bias is reinforced by the 50 and 100-day moving averages, both of which are now sloping lower, leaving the broader technical backdrop favouring selling into rallies and downside breaks.

Outside the abovementioned levels, initial resistance is found at 0.6979, marking former support from mid-June. Above that, the downtrend from the June multi-year high intersects just above 0.7000 alongside the 50 and 100-day moving averages, with more resistance found at 0.7080. On the downside, a break below the 200-day moving average and the June swing low at 0.6866 would expose the late-March low at 0.6835. Beyond there, attention shifts to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-June 2026 bull move at 0.6757, which also coincides with a breakout zone from earlier this year.

Key Points:Gold reached oversold levels last month, not seen since 2022, prompting us to alert members of an impending bottom as prices entered our ideal target zones.Traders have returned following the extended holiday weekend, leading to some near-term selling pressure. Nevertheless, as long as gold holds above $4,000, I believe prices bottomed in late June.From a timing perspective, a late June to early July bottom in precious metals aligns closely with the 2006 analog we’ve been tracking. If the pattern continues to unfold, it could set the stage for gold to surpass $7,000 in the second half of 2027.

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Where we are in the cycle The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 37. It reached a low of 14 in June, a level that has triggered multiple bottoms.

Gold Cycle Indicator showing a level of 37 and pointing towards “Maximum Bottoming”. WTIC: Oil filled the price gap and immediately reversed. A sustained move above the 200-day moving average ($74.00) would signal that the correction has ended and support a resumption of the uptrend.

WTIC rebounds after filling its price gap, with a move above the 200-day moving average needed to confirm renewed upside momentum. Source: Stockcharts.com GOLD: It looks like prices bottomed at the lower end of our target box, which will be confirmed with a progressive close above $4,250. Overall, we believe the recent low will hold for the remainder of the bull market and anticipate gold trading above $7,000 next year, which would be great for miners.

Gold appears to have bottomed near the lower end of its target zone, with a close above $4,250 needed to confirm the next bullish phase. Source: Stockcharts.com SILVER: Silver is working on a bottom in our ideal target box, though I can’t rule out a final dip in the first half of July. Either way, I believe we are very close to an important low that should hold for the remainder of the bull market. A price target north of $150 seems reasonable if gold trades above $7,000 as forecasted.

Silver is testing a key bottoming zone, with the long-term outlook pointing to significantly higher prices if gold extends toward $7,000. Source: Stockcharts.com PLATINUM: Platinum slipped briefly below the lower end of our target box, but we believe prices likely bottomed in June. With gold 2.5 times the price of platinum, I view it as the better value with the potential for far greater upside into 2030.

Platinum dips below its target zone before rebounding, reinforcing the view that a June bottom may already be in place. Source: Stockcharts.com GDX: Miners are working on a bottom in the middle of our target zone. A little more downside is possible if price closes below $74.50, but overall, I believe this multi-month correction is about 95% complete. If gold trades above $7,000 next year as forecasted, senior miners will be printing money and should outperform.

GDX is stabilizing within its target zone as senior miners approach a potential major low after a multi-month correction. Source: Stockcharts.com GDXJ: Junior miners are also very close to an important low, though I can’t rule out one final dip in July. Prices would have to close below $96.00 to promote more downside. Overall, we believe the correction is 95% complete, and this bottom should hold throughout the remainder of the bull market.

GDXJ remains near a key bottoming area, though a break below $96 could trigger additional downside before the next advance. Source: Stockcharts.com SILJ: Silver juniors are in a bottoming process, and we could see one final dip in July if prices break the double bottom at $24.49. If silver trades above $150 next year, SILJ could trade multiples higher from here in our view.

SILJ is forming a potential bottom, with silver juniors positioned for strong upside if silver resumes its bull-market trend. Source: Stockcharts.com BTCUSD: Bitcoin is bouncing in July, and prices are approaching the first level of resistance at the 50-day EMA. Progressive closes above this level could set the stage for another test of the 200-day moving average. Either way, I believe the next move below $58,000 will likely trigger the final capitulation phase, ultimately pushing prices toward $40,000 or lower before bottoming around October.

Bitcoin is rebounding toward short-term resistance, but a move below $58,000 could still trigger a deeper capitulation phase. Source: Stockcharts.com Closing Thoughts We believe metals and miners are approaching critical lows in June/July that could hold for the remainder of the bull market.

Our longer-term outlook sees gold reaching $10,000 to $15,000 and silver achieving $300 to $500 over the next five years, with a particular focus on 2031.

Our broader economic framework anticipates the next major economic downturn (depression) starting around 2030 and extending into 2036. The current inflationary environment will eventually transition into stagflation or outright deflation after 2032. Investors should begin preparing now for the opportunities that may emerge in the years ahead.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.

Gold weekly chart shows weekly bullish candle at trend low. Source: TradingView Potential Bottom Emerges After Decline Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that last week’s new trend low of $3,942 may be the bottom for the decline. It resides near the midline of a falling channel and prior support defined by a higher swing low from October. Last week ended with a weekly bullish candlestick pattern with a high of $4,195, which means that a weekly bullish reversal signal triggered on Monday, but it did not confirm with a closing above that weekly high.

Major Resistance Determines Next Direction Long-term dynamic resistance lies near the 50-week moving average at $4,308 and the 200-day moving average near $4,491. The 50-week moving average has converged with the downtrend line and can be watched along with the 50-day moving average for a resistance zone, since the 50-day is falling and approaching the 50-week zone. A sustained move above this resistance area would provide stronger evidence that the recent low was a durable bottom, while failure would leave the bearish structure intact.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Long-term investors, the buy-and-hold type, like this area because it is at or slightly lower than 50% of the all-time high at $121.67, or a bargain, if you’re looking for a retest of that top or even $200 an ounce.

Short-term traders have the most difficult task because they tend to be “hit and run” traders. They tend to work together with the long-term buyer. The latter helps put in the bottom, while the former helps to navigate the short-term barriers in an effort to drive prices higher and away from the support zone.

The first rally off the $55.60 low, reached $63.28. This move was fueled by short-covering. Trader reaction to the 50% to 61.8% retracement of that short-covering rally is what’s going to drive the next major move.

I’m looking for a near-term pullback into $59.44 to $58.53. Trader reaction to this zone will tell me if real buyers are interested in silver at current price levels, or if the market is headed deeper into the low-term value zone.

Remember that long-term buyers aren’t looking for precision. So they can play this game all the way down to $46.48 if they want. They can show support that attracts short-term speculators then turn around a drop prices even lower, buying the very silver that the specs just dumped. So be prepared for some backing-and-filling while the bottom is being formed.

The formation of a support base will be much better for long-term results than just short-covering fueled price spikes. It all starts with whether new money supports the expected pullback into $59.44 to $58.53.

What to Watch

The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East rise, following reports of attacks on two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3373, down 0.11%. Read More...

British Pound gains as easing Fed hike bets weigh on US DollarGBP/USD continues its winning streak for the ninth consecutive day, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) faces headwinds as market participants scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated. Read More...

Pound Sterling rallies into its own coronationGBP/USD has quietly put together eight consecutive higher daily closes, a grind from near 1.3150 that has delivered the pair directly onto its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 50-day EMA just beneath it and the 1.3400 handle immediately overhead. Monday added another modest gain: Cable based near 1.3350 through the London morning, then climbed all afternoon to stall just shy of 1.3400. Read More...

Treasury yields gained ground as higher oil prices raise inflationary risks. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.50%. Rising Treasury yields are bearish for gold that pays no interest.

U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders focused on rising yields. Stronger dollar put additional pressure on gold markets.

From a big picture point of view, gold traders continue to take profits after the rebound from multi-month lows. It should be noted that gold has pulled back by more than 25% from historic highs, so current levels may attract central banks that want to replenish their reserves.

In case gold manages to settle below the $4150 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $4020 – $4040 range. A move below the $4020 level will push gold towards recent lows near the $3950 level.

On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at $4180 – $4200 will open the way to the test of the next resistance at $4360 – $4380.

Silver Tests The $61.00 Level

The American currency gained ground as traders focused on recent events in the Strait of Hormuz.

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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Oil Prices Rally

DXY 070726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the rally in the oil markets. An LNG carrier from Qatar was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. A Saudi oil tanker also suffered damage. Iran insists that ships should go through approved routes.

The nearest resistance level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 101.15 – 101.30 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 101.30 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range.

EUR/USD Tests Support At 1.1420 – 1.1435

EUR/USD 070726 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as demand for risk assets declined after attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders also focused on the Industrial Production report from Germany. The report indicated that Industrial Production increased by +0.9% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%.

Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435. This support level has already been tested several times and proved its strength. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1420 level, it will get to the test of the 50 MA at 1.1410. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the support level at 1.1350 – 1.1365.

GBP/USD Retreats Amid Falling Demand For Risk Assets GBP/USD 070726 4h Chart GBP/USD is losing ground as traders focus on general strength of the American currency.

From the technical point of view, GBP/USD failed to settle above the 1.3400 level and pulled back towards 1.3370.  The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range.

If GBP/USD declines below the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3285. In case GBP/USD manages to settle below the 50 MA, it will move towards the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.

USD/CAD Tests The 1.4200 Level

USD/CAD 070726 4h Chart USD/CAD remains stuck below the resistance at 1.4225 – 1.4240 as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets. Gold and silver are losing ground, which is bearish for the Canadian currency. Other commodity-related currencies are moving lower in today’s trading session.

If USD/CAD settles below the 50 MA at 1.4204, it will head towards the support level at 1.4125 – 1.4140. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the resistance level at 1.4225 – 1.4240 to gain upside momentum in the near term. A move above 1.4240 will push USD/CAD towards the next resistance at 1.4335 – 1.4350.

USD/JPY Remains Stuck Near Key Resistance Level USD/JPY 070726 4h Chart USD/JPY is losing some ground as traders react to the Household Spending report from Japan. The report indicated that Household Spending increased by +3.7% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +1.4%. On a year-over-year basis, USD/JPY declined by -0.4%, compared to analyst consensus of -2.5%.

The technical picture remains unchanged as USD/JPY is trying to settle above the resistance level at 161.50 – 162.00. If USD/JPY settles above the 162.00 level, it will move towards recent highs near 162.80. A move above the 162.80 level will push USD/JPY towards the 165.00 level.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

Editors’ Picks

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, trading around $60.70 at the time of writing, down 2.21% on the day. The precious metal is giving back part of last week's gains as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes.

Higher US Treasury yields continue to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets, while the US Dollar (USD) remains broadly supported by expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets largely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, and expectations for a rate hike later this year have eased slightly following the latest US labor market data.

Recent US employment indicators continue to point to a gradual slowdown in the labor market. Job growth has recently fallen short of expectations, but the data has done little to alter the Fed's broader policy outlook. Fed of New York President John Williams said that labor market risks remain balanced and that inflation is still too high.

On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. Reports of attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel concerns about global energy supplies. The situation is supporting Oil prices and reviving inflation concerns, a backdrop that is generally unfavorable for precious metals that are sensitive to interest rate expectations.

Investors will now turn their full attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes due on Wednesday. The minutes could provide fresh insight into the future path of monetary policy and help determine the next directional move for Silver prices.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

/ / Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook- USD/CAD Bulls Face Their Biggest Test The Canadian Dollar is poised for a breakout with USD/CAD holding a tight range just below resistance. Battle lines drawn.

07/07/2026

7/7/2026 2:49:00 PM

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Multi-timeframe Analysis Canadian dollar technical outlook is approaching a decisive breakout as USD/CAD tests major resistance after six consecutive weeks of gains. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, explains the key technical levels to watch, why 1.4239 is the critical breakout zone, and how this week's FOMC minutes and Canadian employment report could determine the next major move for the pair.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Key US / Canada Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Stalls at 2024 High as Intervention Risk Builds US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Targets Next Major Resistance British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Rebound Challenges Bear Trend Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Rebound Faces Fed- Breakout Looms --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly softer against the US Dollar (USD) after encountering resistance near 1.3400, with limited fresh data and Bank of England (BoE) news. The RSI recovery suggests improving momentum, but multiple resistance levels between 1.3420 and 1.3520 constrain upside. They look for GBP/USD to trade in a 1.3350–1.3450 range in the near term.

Momentum improves but upside capped"The pound is soft and also entering Tuesday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% decline vs. the USD after finding some near-term resistance around 1.3400."

"Fundamental releases have been limited and developments out of the BoE have been limited to media reports of a proposed easing in bank capital rules. Political developments have been limited with markets waiting for fresh news on the looming leadership transition from PM Starmer to the ‘leader-in-waiting’ Burnham."

"In terms of fiscal risks, the UK’s OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) has underscored the challenges facing the UK and specifically the cost (£100bn) of stabilizing the national debt around current levels (95% of GDP)."

"Neutral/bullish—the RSI’s recovery has extended through the neutral threshold at 50 and momentum appears to be pushing further into bullish territory. The 50 and 200 day MA’s (both around 1.3400) had been flagged as offering the potential for near-term resistance and appear to be doing so."

"The daily chart offers dense resistance at several levels (1.3420, 1.3450. 1.3500, 1.3520) ahead of 1.3600. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Currency Pressures and Supply Deficits The US dollar remains fairly strong, and as long as that’s the case, I think silver probably struggles. Typically, there is a negative correlation over the longer term. Speaking of the longer term, I am bullish on silver eventually, but I also recognize that the market is trying to simply find a reason to go higher, and the lack of supply eventually will be a major factor, as there isn’t enough silver to satiate demand over the longer-term.

Right now, though, it looks like we’re focusing more on the US dollar and, of course, interest rates. As things stand right now, I’m still somewhat bearish on signs of exhaustion in the silver market, at least until the bond market starts to attract buying, to push rates lower again.

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold fell to USD 4,120 per ounce after fresh Iranian attacks lifted TTF gas and Oil prices, but Fed rate expectations remain unchanged. He argues downside is limited, as the People’s Bank of China has bought Gold for 20 straight months, recently accelerating purchases and adding 33 tons over the last three months on the lower price environment.

Chinese demand cushions recent weakness"The price of gold fell to USD 4,120 per troy ounce this morning following Iranian attacks on two cargo ships and an LNG tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the TTF natural gas price rose significantly, and oil prices also edged up slightly, fueling inflation concerns."

"However, there was no change in Fed rate hike expectations. The market continues to anticipate interest rate hikes by the Fed of around 30 basis points by the end of the year. As a result, the price decline is unlikely to continue much further."

"The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) purchased gold in June for the 20th consecutive month. Gold reserves rose by 480 thousand ounces, or nearly 15 tons last month, according to the central bank. These are the largest monthly purchases since October 2023."

"Gold purchases over the past 20 months total more than 80 tons - or just over 4 tons per month. However, purchases have recently picked up noticeably. In the last three months alone, they totaled 33 tons."

"Apparently, the lower price level has prompted the PBoC to step up its purchases."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) stalls its recovery and trades on the back foot for a second consecutive day as a steady US Dollar (USD) and doubts over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path keep the upside in check.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,130 during the European trading session on Tuesday.

While the weaker-than-expected June US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report eased near-term Fed rate hike fears and triggered a relief rally in the non-yielding metal from below the $4,000 mark last week, it did little to change the broader hawkish Fed narrative.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that the central bank remains committed to its 2% inflation target, calling it "a credible pledge."

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 75% probability that the US central bank will leave borrowing costs unchanged at this month's meeting. Meanwhile, the odds of a September rate hike stand at 58%, down from 68% a week ago.

Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US Treasury yields and lingering uncertainty over a broader US-Iran peace agreement continue to support the US Dollar (USD), limiting Gold's upside. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.95.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly attacked a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations on a final agreement would not begin while threats persist, after US President Donald Trump warned that Washington would either reach a deal with Tehran or "finish the job."

Traders now turn their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, due on Wednesday, for fresh clues on the monetary policy path in the coming months, which could influence Gold prices.

Meanwhile, the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report showed speculative traders increased their bullish bets on Gold in the week ended June 30, with non-commercial net long positions rising to 194K contracts from 181.3K a week earlier.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD rebound loses steam below $4,200

On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias as it holds below both the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,489 and the 100-day SMA at $4,619.

Momentum is subdued, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 44, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 38 hints at a still-established but not explosive downtrend.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at $4,200, ahead of the 200-day SMA at $4,489, with the longer-term bearish threshold reinforced by the 100-day SMA at $4,619.

On the downside, the first meaningful support aligns with the horizontal level at $3,950, where a break would likely extend the current corrective phase toward lower psychological floors.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The NZD/USD pair is down 0.2% to near 0.5690 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Kiwi pair faces selling pressure as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforms its peers ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.08%0.07%-0.08%0.05%0.15%0.23%0.17%EUR-0.08%-0.03%-0.17%-0.04%0.10%0.17%0.09%GBP-0.07%0.03%-0.13%0.00%0.11%0.20%0.12%JPY0.08%0.17%0.13%0.14%0.25%0.32%0.26%CAD-0.05%0.04%0.00%-0.14%0.09%0.20%0.12%AUD-0.15%-0.10%-0.11%-0.25%-0.09%0.09%0.00%NZD-0.23%-0.17%-0.20%-0.32%-0.20%-0.09%-0.08%CHF-0.17%-0.09%-0.12%-0.26%-0.12%0.00%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

In the policy meeting, the RBNZ is highly anticipated to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to RBNZ Governor Anna Breman’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding the monetary policy outlook.

In the May policy meeting, RBNZ’s Breman stated that the interest rates were likely to increase sooner and by more than previously signalled to combat inflation. Breman added, "The committee remains focused on ensuring inflation returns to target while avoiding unnecessary volatility in the economy.”

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors will closely read FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.95.

NZD/USD technical analysis

NZD/USD trades lower at around 0.5688, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5724.

The pair’s inability to reclaim this short-term EMA suggests rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than an oversold extreme.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-period EMA near 0.5724, where any recovery would likely meet initial supply and define the hurdle for a more meaningful rebound. Looking down, key support areas are around the June 26 low at 0.5626 and the November 21 low at 0.5580.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.

Read more.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.