In brief Since May 7, Empery Digital sold 1,400 Bitcoin for about $87.1 million, slashing its BTC treasury by nearly half. The firm repaid $10 million in debt, funded a pending property acquisition, and covered legal costs from ongoing stockholder litigation. As of July 10, the company holds 1,514 BTC and roughly $73.9 million in cash. Publicly traded Empery Digital Inc. has sold nearly half its Bitcoin treasury since early May, using the proceeds to pay down debt, prepare for an AI-related real estate acquisition, and cover mounting legal bills tied to a shareholder lawsuit, according to an SEC filing this week.
The company disclosed it sold 1,400 BTC since May 7 at an average price of about $62,200 per coin, generating roughly $87.1 million in gross proceeds. Of that total, $10 million went toward retiring outstanding debt on July 7. The remainder is earmarked for a previously announced property acquisition—pending completion of a purchase and sale agreement—as well as legal expenses stemming from stockholder litigation disclosed in the company's most recent quarterly report, along with general operating costs.
The $65 million property deal, announced on June 30, is for a “25% ownership [stake] into a private entity that is acquiring a strategically located Midwest facility to be converted into a state-of-the-art AI data center.”
As of Thursday, Empery Digital held 1,514 BTC—currently valued at nearly $96.5 million—and approximately $73.9 million in cash, with $45 million still outstanding on its debt facility, the filing shows.
Decrypt reached out to Empery Digital for comment regarding the sale and whether it impacts the firm’s treasury strategy going forward, but did not immediately receive a response.
The disclosure offers a window into how corporate holders of Bitcoin are increasingly treating their crypto reserves as a liquidity source, selling down positions to meet conventional financial obligations rather than holding the asset purely as a long-term investment.
The most prominent example is Bitcoin giant Strategy’s recent sales from its $54 billion BTC stash, which have been done to fuel dividend payments for its preferred share offerings in an effort to cool concerns around its ability to meet its financial commitments. Such fears had helped tank the price of Strategy’s MSTR common shares and its STRC preferred shares in recent weeks.
The stockholder litigation referenced in the filing was previously outlined in Empery Digital's quarterly report for the period ending March 31, though the company did not detail the specific legal costs in this week's disclosure. The filing does not specify a timeline for completing the property acquisition or resolving the pending litigation.
Empery Digital (EMPD) stock has ticked up about 2% on the day so far Friday, per data from Yahoo Finance, recently trading at $3.87. Shares are up more than 14% in the last month, but down about 15% so far this year.
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In brief Since May 7, Empery Digital sold 1,400 Bitcoin for about $87.1 million, slashing its BTC treasury by nearly half. The firm repaid $10 million in debt, funded a pending property acquisition, and covered legal costs from ongoing stockholder litigation. As of July 10, the company holds 1,514 BTC and roughly $73.9 million in cash. Publicly traded Empery Digital Inc. has sold nearly half its Bitcoin treasury since early May, using the proceeds to pay down debt, prepare for an AI-related real estate acquisition, and cover mounting legal bills tied to a shareholder lawsuit, according to an SEC filing this week.
The company disclosed it sold 1,400 BTC since May 7 at an average price of about $62,200 per coin, generating roughly $87.1 million in gross proceeds. Of that total, $10 million went toward retiring outstanding debt on July 7. The remainder is earmarked for a previously announced property acquisition—pending completion of a purchase and sale agreement—as well as legal expenses stemming from stockholder litigation disclosed in the company's most recent quarterly report, along with general operating costs.
The $65 million property deal, announced on June 30, is for a “25% ownership [stake] into a private entity that is acquiring a strategically located Midwest facility to be converted into a state-of-the-art AI data center.”
As of Thursday, Empery Digital held 1,514 BTC—currently valued at nearly $96.5 million—and approximately $73.9 million in cash, with $45 million still outstanding on its debt facility, the filing shows.
Decrypt reached out to Empery Digital for comment regarding the sale and whether it impacts the firm’s treasury strategy going forward, but did not immediately receive a response.
The disclosure offers a window into how corporate holders of Bitcoin are increasingly treating their crypto reserves as a liquidity source, selling down positions to meet conventional financial obligations rather than holding the asset purely as a long-term investment.
The most prominent example is Bitcoin giant Strategy’s recent sales from its $54 billion BTC stash, which have been done to fuel dividend payments for its preferred share offerings in an effort to cool concerns around its ability to meet its financial commitments. Such fears had helped tank the price of Strategy’s MSTR common shares and its STRC preferred shares in recent weeks.
The stockholder litigation referenced in the filing was previously outlined in Empery Digital's quarterly report for the period ending March 31, though the company did not detail the specific legal costs in this week's disclosure. The filing does not specify a timeline for completing the property acquisition or resolving the pending litigation.
Empery Digital (EMPD) stock has ticked up about 2% on the day so far Friday, per data from Yahoo Finance, recently trading at $3.87. Shares are up more than 14% in the last month, but down about 15% so far this year.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Bitcoin’s price may be coiling for a larger move after one of the market’s steadier momentum gauges shifted green. The smoothed long-term moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line has crossed into bullish territory, a signal that historically has aligned with extended rallies rather than short-lived bounces. The original report notes the flip now puts specific chart levels in the spotlight—levels that could determine whether the current recovery has enough fuel to become a genuine uptrend.
The long-term MACD differs from the standard 12-26 setting traders often watch. By applying a smoother, the indicator filters out short-term noise and focuses on structural momentum shifts. When that line turns positive, it typically reflects buying pressure building over weeks or months, not hours. That is why the current signal carries more weight than a routine oversold bounce. It also amplifies the importance of the resistance and support zones that will now be tested.
A Historically Dependable Signal Returns Long-term MACD crossovers have been rare but effective markers during Bitcoin’s previous cycles. The indicator stayed reliably bearish through the 2022 drawdown, only flipping bullish again in early 2023, months before the broader market recovery took hold. A similar pattern emerged in late 2020, when a bullish cross preceded the climb to $69,000. That does not guarantee a repeat, but it does frame the current setup as more consequential than a typical daily chart move.
What makes the present signal notable is the backdrop. Bitcoin has spent weeks consolidating after recovering from a sharp Q1 drop that saw leveraged longs wiped out. Open interest is rebuilding but remains below euphoric extremes. If the market needed a clean reset of speculative positioning, it got one. The MACD turn suggests the reset may be giving way to renewed directional intent.
Still, momentum indicators are lagging tools. They confirm what price action has already begun to price in, and they can whipsaw when ranges persist. For the signal to hold, Bitcoin will need to absorb supply around the levels just above its current trading range, where trapped sellers and breakeven holders often create a ceiling. Failing that, the bullish cross could fade into a false start.
The Key Levels That Will Decide the Next Leg While the smoothed MACD has spoken, price still needs to obey the chart. The first real test sits near the $31,000 to $32,000 zone, an area that served as both support and resistance across multiple months. A weekly close above that band would give the signal concrete validation and likely trigger systematic and momentum-driven buying. Without it, the market risks rotating back into the range that has defined most of 2026.
Above $32,000, the next cluster lies in the $35,000 to $37,000 region, where Bitcoin peaked during earlier relief rallies. That is also where on-chain cost-basis data shows a high concentration of short-term holders who could look to exit at break-even, creating natural overhead. Spot volume will need to expand meaningfully to chew through those positions.
On the downside, the smoothed MACD would face quick invalidation if Bitcoin slips back below the 200-week moving average, a level that has anchored bear-to-bull transitions before. Losing that would undercut the structural case and likely send the indicator back toward neutral, reinforcing a range-bound outlook.
Context Beyond the Chart Technical signals do not operate in a vacuum. The macro environment remains unsettled, with rate expectations shifting as central banks react to uneven growth data. Meanwhile, regulatory friction in Washington continues to inject uncertainty. A major crypto bill faces unexpected bank opposition just days before a critical Senate vote, a reminder that political risk can override technical setups. Any headline that threatens the bill’s passage could abruptly sour sentiment, regardless of what the MACD is doing.
Institutional flows likewise matter. The tokenization of real-world assets continues to expand, with on-chain RWAs crossing $20 billion and major firms settling live Treasury trades on blockchain rails. That deepening capital market infrastructure often feeds back into demand for Bitcoin as a base-layer asset. If the ETF complex and tokenization trend continue to mature, the liquidity that enters the ecosystem may amplify the follow-through on bullish technical breaks.
But it is not only institutional money that matters. Altcoin activity, which often leads Bitcoin during risk-on phases, has been mixed. Some tokens have posted sharp weekly gains, as seen in the latest top performers list, yet the recovery has not been uniform. A broad-based altcoin rally would provide a stronger confirmation that risk appetite is genuinely returning, rather than capital rotating narrowly into Bitcoin.
The open question is whether the current MACD signal can withstand the crosscurrents. Momentum flips are easy to identify in hindsight but harder to trust in real time. Traders who bought previous bullish crosses often did so months before the real move materialized. Patience matters. The next few weekly closes—and how Bitcoin behaves around the technical boundaries outlined—will tell whether the indicator has once again caught the early edge of a trend, or merely another temporary pop in a still-choppy market.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
The Nasdaq listed company said it sold 1,400 BTC since May 7 at an average price of $62,200 per Bitcoin, generating about $87.1 million in gross proceeds. The sale left Empery with 1,514 BTC and about $73.9 million in cash as of July 10.
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The proceeds are being used to repay debt, fund a previously announced property acquisition, cover legal expenses tied to ongoing stockholder litigation and support operations. Empery said it repaid $10 million of outstanding debt on July 7 and still has $45 million outstanding on its debt facility.
The move marks a sharp reversal for a company that adopted a Bitcoin treasury strategy last year. Empery, formerly Volcon, said in August 2025 that it held more than 4,018 BTC and described its strategy as becoming a low cost, capital efficient aggregator of Bitcoin.
The company had already disclosed that Bitcoin sales could be part of its capital strategy. In its annual report, Empery said it had sold 722 BTC for $50 million from January 1 through March 25, 2026, and warned that future Bitcoin sales could affect its results and financial condition.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Empery Digital sold 1,400 BTC for debt, an AI data center deal, and legal costs, echoing Strategy's shift toward treating BTC as liquidity.
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Empery Digital has sold nearly half of its Bitcoin holdings since May, raising about $87.1 million to pay down debt, invest in an AI data center, and cover legal and operating costs.
What's the Scoop?The Sale: Empery sold 1,400 BTC since May 7 at an average price of about $62,200, according to an SEC filing this week. It used $10 million to repay debt on July 7. Most of the remaining proceeds are expected to fund a $65 million property deal tied to a Midwest AI data center project, as well as legal expenses from shareholder lawsuits and general business costs.Current Position: As of Thursday, Empery held 1,514 BTC worth roughly $96.5 million and about $73.9 million in cash. It still had $45 million outstanding on its debt facility. The company did not respond when asked whether the sales mark a broader change in its Bitcoin strategy.Stock Reaction: Empery shares rose on the news, reported Decrypt, with the stock is up more than 14% over the past month but remains down roughly 15% this year.The Strategy Parallel: The move resembles recent sales by Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Strategy sold about $215 million in BTC over the past two weeks to fund preferred stock payments and refill its cash reserve. Those sales appear to fall under a separate part of its program and do not count against the additional $1.25 billion it has authorized for building that reserve, meaning Strategy has far more room to sell Bitcoin than the headline limit suggests.How Strategy Can Sell Billions More in Bitcoin on Bankless
Strategy sold $216M in Bitcoin to fund dividends but still reports full $1.25B reserve capacity. The build-versus-replenish loophole explained.
Empery Digital, a publicly traded blockchain investment company, sold approximately half of its Bitcoin holdings since May, according to its latest filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Details on Bitcoin SalesSince May 7, Empery Digital sold 1,400 Bitcoin at an average price of $62,200 per coin. The sales generated gross proceeds of about $87.1 million and reduced the company’s Bitcoin reserves by nearly 50%.
The company used $10 million from these proceeds to pay down outstanding debt on July 7. The remainder was allocated to a combination of legal expenses, operating costs, and a pending real estate acquisition.
As of July 10, Empery Digital holds 1,514 BTC, currently valued at almost $96.5 million, and maintains approximately $73.9 million in cash reserves. The firm still has $45 million in outstanding debt on its facility, as stated in the recent SEC filing.
Empery Digital confirmed that proceeds from the Bitcoin sale were directed toward debt repayment, a strategic real estate investment, and legal costs associated with a pending shareholder lawsuit.
Decrypt attempted to contact Empery Digital for comment regarding the recent asset sale and whether it signals a shift in treasury strategy, but did not receive a response in time for publication.
On June 30, Empery Digital announced a $65 million property deal. The agreement would give the company a 25% stake in a private entity that aims to develop a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence data center at a Midwest location.
Mini dictionary: Artificial intelligence (AI) data center – A specialized facility equipped with the hardware and infrastructure necessary to train, deploy, and run complex AI algorithms and handle vast amounts of data required by advanced AI models.
The investment into the data center reflects Empery Digital’s ongoing interest in tech-oriented assets, particularly those involving emergent technologies such as AI within its portfolio and operations.
Legal Challenges and Market ContextA significant portion of the Bitcoin sale proceeds also covered legal fees. Empery Digital is involved in ongoing shareholder litigation, as disclosed in prior financial statements. The legal costs continue to affect the company’s balance sheet as the case proceeds.
Elsewhere in the industry, other major Bitcoin holders have also liquidated assets to meet financial obligations. Strategy, one of the sector’s largest Bitcoin treasury holders, recently sold part of its $54 billion BTC reserves to fund dividend payments and address market concerns over its ability to meet financial commitments. The move contributed to declines in both its common and preferred share prices in recent weeks.
CompanyBTC SoldTotal BTC HeldPurpose of SaleEmpery Digital1,4001,514Debt, AI real estate, legal costsStrategyUndisclosedN/A (previously $54B in BTC)Dividend paymentsStock PerformanceEmpery Digital’s shares, trading under the EMPD ticker, rose about 2% on Friday to $3.87, according to data from Yahoo Finance. Over the past month, the stock has gained more than 14%, but is still down roughly 15% year-to-date.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin closed the worst half-year in its recent history near $60,000, down from $93,000 in January and fresh off a 21-month low, and almost none of the damage came from crypto itself. The Federal Reserve and record ETF outflows did it, and the same two forces meet again at the July 28-29 policy meeting that will likely decide whether the bottom is in or another leg waits below. These are the levels, the scenarios, and the honest case on both sides.
Summary
Bitcoin enters July near $60,000, with the July 28–29 Fed meeting expected to determine whether the recent sell-off extends or a recovery begins. The main risks remain hawkish Fed policy and continued spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, while whale accumulation and an oversold market provide the strongest bullish arguments. Key levels to watch are $58,000 support and $63,800 resistance; a sustained return of ETF inflows could signal that a broader recovery is underway. Bitcoin enters July 2026 trading near $60,000, and the number understates how strange the year has been. The largest cryptocurrency began January above $93,000, peaked at $126,000 back in October 2025, and spent the first half of 2026 grinding down to a fresh 21-month low near $58,000 in late June, a decline of more than half from the top.
Bitcoin daily price chart | Source: crypto.news What makes it unusual is the absence of a villain: Bitcoin’s historic crashes came with something breaking, the Terra collapse in 2022, the FTX failure months later, and this time nothing inside crypto broke.
No major exchange failed, no large stablecoin lost its peg, and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve stayed in place. The damage came almost entirely from two external forces: the Federal Reserve and the money leaving Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and those same two forces are set to decide what happens next.
The pivotal event sits at the end of the month. The Federal Reserve meets on July 28-29, and prediction markets put roughly a 70% probability on the Fed holding rates steady, with the small remaining chance pointing toward a hike, not a cut, meaning a monetary rescue for risk assets this month looks unlikely.
Around that decision sits a market that is deeply oversold, largely deleveraged, and quietly being accumulated by long-term buyers even as ETF holders sell, a genuinely mixed setup that supports the range this piece will map rather than a confident call in either direction.
This prediction breaks down the month the way a trader would: the price levels that matter in both directions, the bearish case built on the Fed and the ETF exodus, the bullish case built on oversold conditions and whale accumulation, three concrete scenarios with the triggers that would produce each, the analyst and prediction-market targets worth knowing, and the honest bottom line on a month whose direction one meeting will largely set. None of it is investment advice, and Bitcoin’s volatility means every level here can be overrun by a single headline.
The levels that matter Start with the map, because in a month likely to be decided by one event, the levels around that event are the whole game. Bitcoin near $60,000 sits below its 50-month exponential moving average around $65,600, a marker that has flipped from support to resistance and now caps rallies, while remaining well above its 100-month average near $40,000, which keeps the multi-year structure intact even in the current weakness.
On the downside, the first and most important floor is the late-June low near $58,115, the level that defined the month’s bottom and whose defense or failure is the single most-watched line on the chart. Below it, the $56,200 area marks a Fibonacci support that traders widely flag, and beneath that the picture opens toward the $50,000 to $53,000 zone, which aligns with the most bearish institutional forecasts and would represent the month’s worst-case territory. That lower band also sits near the long-term trendline Bitcoin has only breached during the deepest stretches of past bear markets, which is why a move into it would carry outsized psychological weight.
On the upside, reclaiming the $62,000 to $65,600 zone is the bulls’ first task, because turning that band from resistance back into support would neutralize the downtrend, and a decisive break above roughly $63,800 is the level several analysts cite as the signal that the immediate downtrend has ended. Above that, the 50-month average near $65,600 and then the $70,000 round number are the next hurdles, though reaching them in July would likely require the outside help the bull case depends on.
Held together, the structure is a market pinned below falling resistance and resting on a well-defined floor, waiting for a catalyst to resolve the tension, and the calendar says the catalyst arrives at month-end.
The bearish case: the Fed and the ETF exodus The case for another leg down rests on the two forces that drove the first-half decline, and neither has clearly reversed. The Federal Reserve is the larger one. The new chair held rates steady at his first meeting in June and took this year’s expected rate cut off the table, and the resulting repricing of risk assets is much of what pulled Bitcoin down.
With markets assigning roughly a 70% odds to another hold on July 29 and the tail risk pointing toward a hike rather than a cut, the monetary backdrop offers Bitcoin no relief this month and possibly a fresh headwind, and a hold delivered with hawkish language, or any hint of a hike, is exactly the trigger that could push price back below the $58,115 floor.
The second force is the ETF exodus, and its scale is historic. Bitcoin ETFs posted their worst month on record in June with roughly $4.5 billion pulled, and one major bank cut its 12-month inflow forecast to zero, a stark reversal for the products that drove the prior bull run. Because ETF flows translate directly into real spot buying and selling through the creation-and-redemption machinery, sustained outflows are not sentiment noise; they are actual coins hitting the market, and until that flow turns, one of the largest sources of structural demand is instead a source of supply.
The bearish scenario also carries a wildcard: a treasury company forced into selling. Several corporate holders carry Bitcoin against financing, and a forced sale into a thin, falling market could accelerate a move toward the $50,000 to $53,000 zone, the kind of reflexive downside the first-half drawdown across the broader market already previewed.
The bullish case: oversold, deleveraged, and quietly accumulated The case for a bottom does not rely on optimism; it rests on market structure. Bitcoin is deeply oversold on multiple timeframes, and the leverage that drove the crash has largely been flushed; the forced-selling cascade that liquidations mechanically produce is now spent, with open interest down to roughly $46.5 billion.
That matters because a deleveraged market has less fuel for cascading liquidations, which means another sharp drop would likely require a fresh fundamental trigger instead of more mechanical selling, a meaningfully different setup from the cascade that produced the June low.
Underneath the price, the on-chain picture diverges sharply from the ETF flows, and the divergence is the bull case’s strongest single point. Coins keep leaving exchanges, and whales accumulated more than 270,000 BTC over roughly two weeks around the lows, worth well over $16 billion, most of it moved through the private desks where size trades without moving the price, precisely the pattern of long-term buyers stepping in that has historically marked accumulation bottoms. That split, whales buying the low while ETFs sold, is the defining tension of the current market, and it means the selling has been concentrated in one holder class while another quietly absorbs supply.
For the bullish scenario to play out on price, Bitcoin needs a little outside help: a cooler mid-July inflation report, a return of ETF inflows for a week or more, or softer language from the Fed chair, any of which could let Bitcoin reclaim $60,000 as support and turn the oversold structure into a recovery. The bottoming signal to watch, on this side, is simple and specific: money flowing back into the ETFs for a sustained stretch, which is what a genuine turn in demand would look like first.
The macro backdrop: why a rate decision moves Bitcoin For readers who find it strange that a central bank meeting dominates a Bitcoin forecast, the mechanism is worth making explicit, because it is the through-line of the entire year. Bitcoin trades, in the current era, as a high-beta risk asset: when the Federal Reserve tightens or signals higher-for-longer rates, the return available on safe assets like Treasuries rises, the cost of holding non-yielding assets climbs, and capital rotates out of the riskiest holdings first, with Bitcoin near the front of that queue. The first half of 2026 was a textbook demonstration, and the sequence matters.
The Fed’s new chair took office and, at his first meeting in June, held rates steady while removing the rate cut markets had priced for the year, and the repricing rippled straight through risk assets into Bitcoin, which fell from the low $70,000s toward $60,000 in the weeks that followed.
This is why the July 28-29 meeting carries such weight, and why its likely outcome is not comforting. A hold is the base expectation, but a hold is not neutral when the market had hoped for cuts; it confirms the higher-for-longer backdrop that pressured Bitcoin all year. The dangerous tail is a hawkish surprise: any hint of a hike, or a hold delivered with language pointing to more tightening ahead, would remove the last hope of monetary relief and likely send capital further out of risk.
The benign path runs the other way, through the data that precedes the meeting: a cooler mid-July inflation report would revive the case for eventual cuts, soften the dollar, ease Treasury yields, and give risk assets including Bitcoin room to breathe.
In other words, the inflation print in the middle of the month may matter nearly as much as the decision at the end of it, because it shapes what the Fed can credibly say. Bitcoin’s July is, to an uncomfortable degree, a bet on macro data it has no influence over.
The cycle debate underneath the month Beyond July’s tactical picture sits a larger argument that colors every forecast, and it is worth understanding because it explains the extraordinary spread in analyst targets. Bitcoin has historically moved in roughly 4-year cycles tied to its halving events, with long bull markets giving way to deep bear markets in a rhythm traders have relied on for over a decade. The current drawdown, more than half off the October 2025 peak, would in the classic framework signal a bear market already well underway, pointing toward more downside and a longer winter before the next cycle.
The competing thesis, advanced by some of the most bullish institutional voices, is that this cycle is different because the buyer base has changed. On this view, the entry of ETFs, corporations, and other institutions is stretching Bitcoin’s traditional boom-and-bust rhythm into a longer, shallower, more gradual cycle, one where deep drawdowns like the current one are corrections within an extended bull market instead of the start of a multi-year winter.
The record ETF outflows of the first half complicate that story, since they show institutional money can leave as fast as it arrived, but the simultaneous whale accumulation supports it, suggesting conviction buyers view these levels as an opportunity.
The debate will not resolve in July, but it frames the month’s stakes: if the classic cycle holds, the $50,000s and lower are a waypoint on a longer decline, and if the institutional thesis holds, the current oversold, accumulated setup near multi-year support is closer to a bottom than a beginning.
July’s data will not settle the argument, but it will nudge the evidence one way or the other, which is part of why the month is being watched so closely.
Three scenarios for July Pulling the forces together produces three coherent paths for the month.
The base case is a slow grind with a downward tilt. If nothing decisive changes before the Fed meets, Bitcoin likely chops between roughly $56,000 and $62,000, getting rejected on each push into the low $60,000s and treading water while the market waits for the July 29 outcome. This is the highest-probability path into the meeting, and it resolves only when the Fed does.
The bearish scenario opens below $58,115. A hot inflation report, a hawkish hold or hike signal from the Fed, or a forced corporate sale could break the June floor, exposing the $56,200 Fibonacci support and, if that fails, the $50,000 to $53,000 zone that aligns with the most bearish bank forecast. This is not the base expectation for July, but it is the clearly defined downside if sellers regain control.
The bullish scenario needs the outside help named above. A cooler inflation print, renewed ETF inflows, or a softer Fed tone could let Bitcoin hold above $60,000, reclaim the $62,000 to $65,600 band, and turn a break above roughly $63,800 into the signal that the downtrend has ended, opening a path toward the 50-month average and $70,000. It is the least likely path given the monetary backdrop, but the oversold, deleveraged, accumulated structure means the fuel for a sharp recovery is present if the catalyst appears.
Reading the flows in real time Because this piece keeps returning to ETF flows as the signal that matters most, it is worth being concrete about how to read them during the month, since the daily numbers reward interpretation. The flow data publishes each trading day and measures coins genuinely created and redeemed, but single days are noise, dominated by one fund’s rebalancing or one authorized participant’s book, while multi-week trends are the real regime information.
A single green day after the June exodus means little; a sustained stretch of inflows, a week or more of consistent net creation across multiple issuers, is the pattern that would signal the demand which drove the bull market coming back, and it is the specific evidence a bottom-caller should demand before trusting a turn.
Two caveats keep the reading honest. First, a meaningful share of ETF positions belongs to basis traders holding shares against short futures to harvest a spread, and when that spread moves they redeem mechanically with no directional view, which means some of June’s alarming outflows were plumbing, not conviction selling, and some of any recovery’s inflows will be the same in reverse.
Second, flows lag price around the clock, since the ETFs trade only during US market hours while Bitcoin trades continuously, so a weekend move shows up in Monday’s flow number, not in real time. The practical habit is to watch the flow trend across a full week, weigh it against price action, and treat a durable turn in the trend, not any single print, as the tell.
Alongside the flows, the on-chain accumulation data, exchange balances and large-wallet holdings, provides the counterweight that has diverged from ETF selling all through the drawdown, and the month in which those two series finally point the same direction is likely the month the trend actually changes.
The targets on the table The professional forecasts span an unusually wide range, which is itself information about how uncertain this moment is. On the short-term and bearish side, one major bank’s $53,000 forecast anchors the downside case, and prediction-market data leans bearish, with traders assigning roughly a 68% chance of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 by late July and a 64% chance of $60,000 holding as support, alongside only modest odds, under 20%, of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by year-end.
On the bullish side, one major bank maintains a $100,000 year-end target and frames the sell-off as a buying opportunity rather than a cycle top, and one research firm holds a $150,000 year-end call built on the thesis that institutional ownership is stretching Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle into a longer, more gradual one. Longer-dated model-based forecasts cluster in the high 5 figures to low 6 figures for late 2026 before rising in subsequent years.
The spread between a $53,000 near-term floor and a $150,000 year-end target is the honest picture: the analysts agree on almost nothing except that the second half depends on the Fed and the ETFs, the same two variables this piece has centered throughout.
For July specifically, the base-case targets cluster around $65,600 on the upside if support holds and the low-to-mid $50,000s on the downside if it does not, a range whose resolution the month-end meeting will largely dictate.
What could break the range Because the base case is a range defined by one meeting, it is worth naming the events that could override it before or after July 29, since a month pinned on a calendar is also a month exposed to surprises. On the downside, beyond a hawkish Fed, the specific risks are a hot inflation print that removes the cooling narrative, a forced sale from a leveraged corporate treasury holder into thin liquidity, and any renewed acceleration in ETF redemptions that turns the June exodus into a quarter-long trend.
Each of these is capable of breaking the $58,115 floor independent of the Fed, and the treasury-sale risk in particular is the kind of reflexive, mechanical event that has produced Bitcoin’s sharpest single-day moves, because a holder selling from necessity, not choice, sells regardless of price.
On the upside, the overrides are mirror images: a cooler inflation report that revives cut expectations, a decisive multi-week return of ETF inflows, or a broad risk-on turn in traditional markets that lifts Bitcoin alongside equities. A geopolitical de-escalation or a softening dollar could each do it, since Bitcoin has tracked global risk appetite closely through the year.
The point of naming both sets is not to predict which fires but to frame the month correctly: the range between roughly $56,000 and $63,800 is the default, the Fed is the scheduled resolver, and the list above is the set of unscheduled events that could resolve it earlier or push it further in either direction. A disciplined reader watches the floor, the reclaim zone, the mid-month inflation data, and the ETF flow trend, and lets those four signals, not any forecast including this one, dictate the reading as the month unfolds.
The honest bottom line July 2026 is a waiting month with a hard deadline. Bitcoin enters it oversold, deleveraged, and quietly accumulated, which limits the fuel for another forced-selling cascade, and simultaneously pinned beneath falling resistance by a Federal Reserve that has taken rate cuts off the table and an ETF complex still bleeding, which limits the fuel for a recovery. The result is a market coiled between a well-defined floor near $58,000 and a reclaim zone near $63,800, most likely grinding sideways with a downward tilt until the July 28-29 meeting forces the resolution, at which point the reaction to the Fed, and the behavior of ETF flows in the days around it, will set the tone for the rest of the summer.
The single most useful thing to watch is not the price but the flows: a sustained return of ETF inflows would be the first real evidence that the demand which drove the bull market is coming back, and its continued absence is the clearest reason to expect the grind to continue. Bitcoin has survived a half-year that erased more than half its value without a single structural break, which is either the setup for a base or the pause before another leg, and honestly, the month itself, through one meeting and a handful of data prints, will do more to answer that than any forecast can.
One final piece of perspective for anyone reading this mid-month: the hardest thing about a waiting market is that patience feels like inaction while the range holds, and then resolves faster than anyone can react once it breaks. The levels in this piece exist precisely so that the resolution, whenever it comes, is legible in advance instead of chased after the fact. The floor is near $58,000, the line that ends the downtrend is near $63,800, the scheduled catalyst is July 28-29, and the flow trend is the tell underneath all of it.
A reader who knows those four numbers going into the meeting is positioned to interpret whatever the Fed and the data deliver, which is the most any honest forecast can offer for a month this contingent: not a forecast to trust blindly, but a map to read the month against as it happens.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and you can lose your entire investment. Price levels, forecasts, and the July 28-29 Federal Reserve meeting date reflect information current as of July 9, 2026, and are subject to change; verify current conditions before making any decision. Always do your own research.
Financial markets fluctuated on July 8 after US President Donald Trump declared the end of the US-Iran ceasefire at the NATO summit in Ankara. Oil prices climbed 5% to above $74 per barrel as geopolitical tensions rose, leading to a broad selloff in risk assets. Bitcoin lost about 2% in value, reflecting the heightened correlation between digital assets and global macro events.
Altcoins under pressure as liquidity concentratesNearly 40% of tradable altcoins now hover close to their all-time lows. Liquidity has become noticeably scarce outside top assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, putting additional strain on smaller cryptocurrencies. Analysts observed that this trend suggests investors are consolidating their holdings in larger, more established coins to weather the risk-off environment.
Asset categoryTrendLiquidityBitcoin, EthereumMore resilientHighMajor altcoinsUnder pressureModerate to lowSmaller altcoinsNear all-time lowsVery lowMichael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, returned to social media to emphasize Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, despite his company quietly selling 3,588 BTC for $216 million to meet dividend obligations. Saylor described Bitcoin as an asset likely to increase in significance outside of technical upgrades, stating that he anticipates persistent institutional interest in the years ahead.
Michael Saylor argued on X that Bitcoin’s evolving importance will depend less on protocol changes and more on broader adoption and integration across sectors over the coming decade.
Major regulatory updates across Europe and UKRipple obtained full Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) authorization from Luxembourg’s financial regulator, enabling it to offer regulated crypto payments throughout all 30 countries in the European Economic Area (EEA). This authorization marks Ripple’s complete compliance with the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, further strengthening its position in Europe’s payments sector.
Coinbase, the leading US-based crypto exchange, received an investment services license in the UK from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This approval allows Coinbase to provide equities trading for retail users while permitting institutional clients to access derivatives.
The European Parliament adopted a policy paper this week, calling on the European Commission to assess the potential integration of decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) into the broader regulatory framework. Lawmakers seek to build upon the MiCA regulation, recognizing the need to address emerging trends and risks in digital assets.
Mini dictionary: Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA): MiCA is a European Union regulatory framework aimed at standardizing crypto-asset regulations, increasing transparency, and providing protections for investors across EU member states.
The European Parliament urged the Commission to examine regulatory needs for DeFi, staking, and NFTs in addition to the current MiCA requirements.
Investment, Phishing, and Technical DevelopmentsBlackRock unveiled its new iShares Nasdaq-100 ETF, targeting investors looking to gain exposure to large technology companies riding the artificial intelligence wave. At the same time, South Korean telecommunications leader KT pledged 18 trillion won, or about $13 billion, to AI development. KT’s plan will also incorporate blockchain technology and stablecoin solutions into future projects.
In security-related news, an Ethereum wallet owner lost nearly $1 million in USDT after inadvertently signing a phishing approval that instantly drained the entire wallet. The incident highlights ongoing security risks in decentralized platforms.
Meanwhile, SWIFT, the international payment messaging network, introduced a blockchain-based ledger pilot for live transactions. This step is intended to facilitate cross-border transfers using tokenized bank deposits and aims to offer continuous, 24/7 settlement capacity.
Mini dictionary: SWIFT: The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication is a global network responsible for facilitating secure financial messaging and settlement between banks and financial institutions worldwide.
Altcoin volatility and project developmentsAmong notable market movements, TCC surged on increasing speculation linked to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and attention after the project’s donation to the educational group GiggleAcademy. In contrast, TAC experienced a sharp decline triggered by a flash crash, thin liquidity, and security concerns.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
After a 2.32% increase over the previous day, Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at $64,380.20 at press time.
The leading cryptocurrency, however, failed to overcome the resistance level at $80k, which it last reached in mid-May, despite the increase.
Even though the four-hour chart’s RSI and MACD indicators, as well as the narrowing Bollinger bands, further imply that the bullish narrative is here to stay.
Source: Trading View On-chain metrics raise red flags Nonetheless, the data from CryptoQuant’s most recent analysis paints a bleak picture, indicating that Bitcoin is not in a bear market or a confirmed recovery, but rather is in a transitional phase.
On the one hand, conventional U.S. investors are being cautious.
This is because since October 2025, about $10 billion has been pulled out of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, the Coinbase Premium has been negative for 65 days in a row, suggesting that buying demand from American institutions and individual investors is not strong.
Source: CryptoQuant However, on-chain data reveals that new Bitcoin whales are progressively gaining more BTC, as the supply of the cryptocurrency shifts from older, long-term holders to more large, recent investors.
This indicates that although ETF selling pressure indicates a weak market sentiment, big buyers are covertly consuming that supply, which may be preventing further declines.
Source: CryptoQuant Community backs Bitcoin In fact, disregarding these negative metrics, former NASA researcher Benjamin Cowen pointed out,
Source: Benjamin Cowen/X Indeed, according to another analyst, there might be a recurrent four-year cycle in Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrency market.
According to the analyst, an anonymous 4chan user correctly forecasted the peak of the Bitcoin market in October 2025, and this prediction is consistent with another independent cycle model.
He added,
If the cycle repeats, Q4 2026 could mark the next major buying opportunity and 2027 is gets crazy.
Similar to other opinions about Bitcoin, Adam Livingston contends that BTC seems to be undervalued because it is currently only 19.2% above its realized price, which is the average on-chain purchase price of all BTC, as opposed to an average premium of 81.9% in the past.
According to Livingston’s analysis of previous times when Bitcoin traded at comparable valuation levels, all completed historical regimes produced positive two-year returns, with median returns of 41% after six months, 127% after a year, and 621% after two years.
Source: X Nonetheless, AMBCrypto recently pointed out that better sentiment may have trouble spurring the kind of broad purchasing that is required for a long-lasting recovery until new capital returns to spot markets.
Final Summary Bitcoin price action is showing bullish momentum, but on-chain metrics are raising eyebrows. The community is also optimistic about Bitcoin’s upcoming trajectory.
Usage metrics tell a different story from price action, with adoption continuing to outpace market performance this cycle.
Bitwise’s Q2 2026 crypto market review shows its 10 Large Cap Crypto Index dropped 15.4% last quarter, the third straight quarter in the red and the longest such stretch since 2022.
However, the same report argued that even as prices fell, the crypto sector, including stablecoins, tokenized assets, and prediction markets, has been strengthening.
Crypto Prices Down, But Fundamentals Are Improving According to Bitwise, eight of the index’s 10 constituents finished Q2 in the red, with the worst performer in the basket being Cardano (ADA), which slipped nearly 40% in Q2 and is down more than 56% year to date. Ethereum and XRP lost 24.66% and 20.79% of their values, respectively, while Solana’s dip was more modest in comparison at 10.87%, although YTD it registered a more significant 40.61% plunge.
Bitcoin itself just suffered its worst June in four years after falling below $60,000 and was about 49% off its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000 at the time of writing, stretching the downturn to about nine months.
But there were two assets in the Large Cap Crypto Index that bucked the downward trend: Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Stellar Lumens (XLM), with the former going up 79% and the latter over 10%. However, year-to-date XLM dumped 6.71% while HYPE still stayed green, surging by nearly 158%.
A separate report from CryptoQuant indicated that about 40% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows, a share that climbed toward 45% when BTC broke below the aforementioned $60,000.
Per the Bitwise market review, on-chain activity, trading volume, and the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi also slipped. But it was not all doom and gloom, as prediction market volumes reached a record $43.2 billion during the quarter, which is almost 18 times higher than the year before.
You may also like: STRC, SATA Hit Record $10B Monthly Trading High Despite Price Drop Below Par Strategy or Binance: Who’s Sitting on More Unrealized Bitcoin Losses? CryptoQuant Weighs In Will $1.4B in Bitcoin Options Expiring Today Move the Market? Meanwhile, tokenized real-world assets have gone up more than 50% so far this year to nearly $33 billion, and crypto-focused equities have also outperformed the wider digital asset market, with the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index gaining 30.6%.
The asset manager also noted that stablecoins settled 2.3 times more value than Visa and collectively hold more US Treasuries than the likes of Norway, India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. Further, it pointed out that revenue generation among crypto applications has become more concentrated, with Hyperliquid, PancakeSwap, and Aave each producing roughly $900 million over the past year.
A Market Twice the Size It Was at the Last Bottom When Bitwise compared current activity levels to the same point in the 2022 cycle, the difference stood out away from the price charts. For instance, Ethereum transaction counts ran about 13 times higher, and DeFi TVL sits more than 60% above the level from that period. Additionally, stablecoin assets under management have doubled.
According to the report, only prices have failed to keep pace with the increasing usage and infrastructure, with the market now valuing crypto at levels associated with the last bear market, even though the industry is operating at almost twice the scale it had reached then, and there is greater liquidity and clearer participation from traditional finance firms.
Bitcoin neared $65,000 on July 10 as numerous variables combined to fuel the latest upside.
getty
Bitcoin prices rallied on Friday, July 10, approaching $65,000 as a range of factors contributed to the digital currency’s upward movement.
The world’s most prominent cryptocurrency rose to more than $64,600, according to Coinbase data from TradingView. At this point, it had climbed more than 15% after trading at less than $58,000 on July 1.
When explaining these latest price movements, several analysts pointed to multiple variables.
Brett Sifling, wealth manager for Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, was in this camp.
“As always, I think there are a few reasons why Bitcoin has rallied up to the $65,000 level,” he stated via email. “First, it seems to be a relief bounce after the string of bad news over the past few weeks has dried up such as Michael Saylor liquidating some of his Bitcoin stash.”
“Second, I’ve seen some chatter about the newest version of the Crypto Clarity Act may come as early as next week. Regulatory clarity could be another reason for the bounce,” Sifling continued.
“Lastly, the Circle news today that it received regulatory approval to establish its own national trust bank was also largely seen as positive for the entire crypto industry,” he noted, speaking to the company’s recent announcement.
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“A combination of some positive news for the crypto industry, along with a relief bounce, seems to be what’s driving the Bitcoin rally.”
Dave Liebowitz, head of growth at private credit platform Cap, also weighed in, stating that “There are a few reasons” for bitcoin’s recent gains.
“First, the uncertainty around Michael Saylor selling his Bitcoin has largely passed,” he said, referring to the $200 million transaction recently made by the crypto celebrity’s company Strategy.
“Before he sold, the market was questioning whether mounting pressure might force him to reduce his holdings,” Liebowitz noted. “Now that he has already sold, that uncertainty is gone and investors are no longer waiting to see if or when he might sell.”
“That removes a key overhang on the market.”
The analyst cited another causal factor, stating that “In addition, Bitcoin ETFs have continued to see strong inflows, including single-day inflows of $221 million to more than $300 million and $1.347 billion in weekly inflows.”
Stronger Market Sentiment Some analysts took a different tack, with one focusing on the changing mindset of investors when explaining bitcoin’s latest gains.
“Bitcoin’s latest move appears to be driven by a combination of improving market sentiment and renewed risk appetite, rather than any single catalyst,” Himanshu Sahay, cofounder and CTO of crypto lender Arch, claimed via email. “After a period of heightened uncertainty, even modest positive developments can encourage investors to rotate back into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin, particularly when liquidity returns to the market.”
However, he noted that the recent runup may be more of a short-term price movement, stating that “I don’t think this move alone signals a broader trend.”
“Bitcoin has historically experienced sharp rallies within wider periods of volatility, so it’s important not to overinterpret short-term price action. Whether this develops into a sustained recovery will depend on how macroeconomic conditions evolve and whether investor confidence continues to build over the coming weeks,” added Sahay.
“For now, this looks more like the market responding to an improving backdrop than a definitive shift in direction.”
Improving Market Factors Another expert named Julio Moreno offered a perspective that focused on market factors, stating that “Both speculative and spot demand are contracting at much less aggressive levels than last month.”
The chart below helps depict this development:
Bitcoin spot and perpetual futures demand
CryptoQuant
Moreno, head of research for CryptoQuant, added via Telegram that this time of the year may be particularly beneficial for the digital currency, stating that “Positive seasonal factors may support prices during July.”
He noted that “Over the past ten years, July has been one of Bitcoin’s more reliably positive months, closing higher in most years shown. The effect is pronounced in down-cycles: in the bear-market years of 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rallied roughly +20% and +17% in July even as the broader trend stayed weak.”
The chart below illustrates this activity:
Bitcoin's monthly returns between 2016 and 2026
CryptoQuant
Short-Term Outlook Tim Enneking, managing partner of Psalion, offered some input on the price movements of the world’s most valuable digital currency, as well as a short-term outlook.
“BTC continues to struggle to put in a bottom,” he noted via email.
“The channel of lower highs and lower lows continues, although the lows are dropping less each time. (For instance, the most recent on 30 June was only just over $300 lower than the prior low on 25 June.)”
“Against that background, the recent move up to almost $65k is not material,” the analyst added. “However, crossing $65.6k would result in a ‘higher high’ relative to the level hit on 22 June and could be meaningful.”
“Of course, to be convincing, BTC would have to take out the $67.3k lower high hit on 15 June,” he emphasized.
Bitcoin neared $65,000 on July 10 as numerous variables combined to fuel the latest upside.
getty
Bitcoin prices rallied on Friday, July 10, approaching $65,000 as a range of factors contributed to the digital currency’s upward movement.
The world’s most prominent cryptocurrency rose to more than $64,600, according to Coinbase data from TradingView. At this point, it had climbed more than 15% after trading at less than $58,000 on July 1.
When explaining these latest price movements, several analysts pointed to multiple variables.
Brett Sifling, wealth manager for Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, was in this camp.
“As always, I think there are a few reasons why Bitcoin has rallied up to the $65,000 level,” he stated via email. “First, it seems to be a relief bounce after the string of bad news over the past few weeks has dried up such as Michael Saylor liquidating some of his Bitcoin stash.”
“Second, I’ve seen some chatter about the newest version of the Crypto Clarity Act may come as early as next week. Regulatory clarity could be another reason for the bounce,” Sifling continued.
“Lastly, the Circle news today that it received regulatory approval to establish its own national trust bank was also largely seen as positive for the entire crypto industry,” he noted, speaking to the company’s recent announcement.
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“A combination of some positive news for the crypto industry, along with a relief bounce, seems to be what’s driving the Bitcoin rally.”
Dave Liebowitz, head of growth at private credit platform Cap, also weighed in, stating that “There are a few reasons” for bitcoin’s recent gains.
“First, the uncertainty around Michael Saylor selling his Bitcoin has largely passed,” he said, referring to the $200 million transaction recently made by the crypto celebrity’s company Strategy.
“Before he sold, the market was questioning whether mounting pressure might force him to reduce his holdings,” Liebowitz noted. “Now that he has already sold, that uncertainty is gone and investors are no longer waiting to see if or when he might sell.”
“That removes a key overhang on the market.”
The analyst cited another causal factor, stating that “In addition, Bitcoin ETFs have continued to see strong inflows, including single-day inflows of $221 million to more than $300 million and $1.347 billion in weekly inflows.”
Stronger Market Sentiment Some analysts took a different tack, with one focusing on the changing mindset of investors when explaining bitcoin’s latest gains.
“Bitcoin’s latest move appears to be driven by a combination of improving market sentiment and renewed risk appetite, rather than any single catalyst,” Himanshu Sahay, cofounder and CTO of crypto lender Arch, claimed via email. “After a period of heightened uncertainty, even modest positive developments can encourage investors to rotate back into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin, particularly when liquidity returns to the market.”
However, he noted that the recent runup may be more of a short-term price movement, stating that “I don’t think this move alone signals a broader trend.”
“Bitcoin has historically experienced sharp rallies within wider periods of volatility, so it’s important not to overinterpret short-term price action. Whether this develops into a sustained recovery will depend on how macroeconomic conditions evolve and whether investor confidence continues to build over the coming weeks,” added Sahay.
“For now, this looks more like the market responding to an improving backdrop than a definitive shift in direction.”
Improving Market Factors Another expert named Julio Moreno offered a perspective that focused on market factors, stating that “Both speculative and spot demand are contracting at much less aggressive levels than last month.”
The chart below helps depict this development:
Bitcoin spot and perpetual futures demand
CryptoQuant
Moreno, head of research for CryptoQuant, added via Telegram that this time of the year may be particularly beneficial for the digital currency, stating that “Positive seasonal factors may support prices during July.”
He noted that “Over the past ten years, July has been one of Bitcoin’s more reliably positive months, closing higher in most years shown. The effect is pronounced in down-cycles: in the bear-market years of 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rallied roughly +20% and +17% in July even as the broader trend stayed weak.”
The chart below illustrates this activity:
Bitcoin's monthly returns between 2016 and 2026
CryptoQuant
Short-Term Outlook Tim Enneking, managing partner of Psalion, offered some input on the price movements of the world’s most valuable digital currency, as well as a short-term outlook.
“BTC continues to struggle to put in a bottom,” he noted via email.
“The channel of lower highs and lower lows continues, although the lows are dropping less each time. (For instance, the most recent on 30 June was only just over $300 lower than the prior low on 25 June.)”
“Against that background, the recent move up to almost $65k is not material,” the analyst added. “However, crossing $65.6k would result in a ‘higher high’ relative to the level hit on 22 June and could be meaningful.”
“Of course, to be convincing, BTC would have to take out the $67.3k lower high hit on 15 June,” he emphasized.
One year after the House passed the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, the Arkansas Republican who chairs the House Financial Services Committee used a Fox Business interview with anchor Maria Bartiromo to press Senate leaders for a floor vote before the August recess.
“I’ve encouraged Senate leadership to put it on the floor,” Hill said. “I think if you schedule a floor date here in the month of July, that will cause these final meetings, these final discussions to take place. You’ve got to have a deadline in Congress to get people to move and find consensus.”
Hill thanked Senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Cynthia Lummis, John Boozman and Tim Scott for working toward a deal, and pointed to the 78 Democrats who backed the House measure a year ago.
Hill’s central argument is that the CLARITY Act would resolve the ethics concerns now used to block it, rather than deepen them.
Critics point to President Trump’s crypto ventures, including $TRUMP meme coin licensing and World Liberty Financial token sales, which a July 1 financial disclosure tied to about $1.4 billion in 2025 income.
Hill contends a market framework offers the transparency those critics want.
“If we passed the CLARITY Act last summer, many of the things that people are expressing concern about — meme coin issuance, co-investment, use of exchange, investing in exchanges — all that would be under a market framework of regulation with clarity, no pun intended, and that would provide a lot of transparency to people that are concerned about the Trump family’s investments,” he said.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Congressman French Hill says lawmakers are going to have a field hearing for the Clarity Act in New York next week 👀
"We’ve got to get this market framework in place to be combined with the GENIUS Act" 🚀 pic.twitter.com/F1b9QpSdQT
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 10, 2026 Clarity Act pairs with the GENIUS Act Hill framed the bill as the missing half of a system that pairs it with the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin law enacted last year.
“Stablecoin is like a cell phone not connected to a cell phone network,” he said, “and the market framework is in fact that network that we need.” To keep the pressure on, Hill plans a field hearing in New York next week, led by digital assets subcommittee chair Rep. Bryan Steil, to make the case for a market structure.
His push drew support from two other voices in the same Bartiromo appearance. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig warned of “mission creep beyond what’s really critical here” and cautioned that a stalled bill leaves the rules to regulators.
Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack, a former SEC official, described the measure as “on the one-yard line,” with senators from both parties “working around the clock to get this across the finish line.”
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Coinbase Vice Chair says Clarity Act has bipartisan support 👀
"Democratic and Republican senators are working around the clock to get this across the finish line." 🚀 pic.twitter.com/OvKPU3SHuC
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 10, 2026 The Senate returns July 13 with about three weeks before recess. Prediction market Polymarket prices Clarity Act 2026 passage near 39%, a fall from the prior month’s 74%.
Micah Zimmerman
Micah first discovered Bitcoin in 2018 but remained a skeptic on the sidelines for too long. Since 2021, he has covered crypto and business and now works as a news reporter for Bitcoin Magazine, based in North Carolina.
Strive CEO Matt Cole just said something you almost never hear from a corporate Bitcoin maximalist: he’s willing to sell.
Cole confirmed that Strive is open to offloading Bitcoin if doing so benefits shareholders, even as the firm commits to being a net buyer of the asset over time. The goal, Cole says, is to outperform Bitcoin itself, not just hold it and hope.
Nearly 20,000 BTC and counting Strive, which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker ASST, held 19,882 BTC as of early July 2026. That puts it among the top 10 public corporate holders of Bitcoin globally.
The accumulation has been swift. The company’s stash grew from roughly 5,000 BTC in fall 2025 to nearly four times that amount through a combination of equity raises and structured financial instruments. In early June 2026 alone, Strive scooped up 2,500 BTC for $185 million.
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Strive carries zero debt. No encumbered holdings. Cole has emphasized that Strive’s balance sheet could theoretically survive Bitcoin dropping to $0.01.
The firm also holds enough reserves to cover 18 months of dividend obligations.
The preferred stock play One of the more interesting tools in Strive’s toolkit is its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, trading under the ticker SATA. The instrument currently yields a 13% dividend rate.
Rather than selling Bitcoin to fund operations or pay dividends, Strive uses structured products like SATA to generate capital. That capital then gets deployed to buy more Bitcoin, amplifying the amount of BTC attributable to each common share.
Cole has also set a base case Bitcoin price target of $120,000 by year-end 2026. The firm wants to generate alpha over a simple buy-and-hold Bitcoin strategy. Cole’s background managing large fixed-income portfolios is clearly influencing how he thinks about Bitcoin treasury management, treating Bitcoin as the benchmark against which all capital allocation decisions are measured.
Acquiring the competition Strive made waves earlier by acquiring Semler Scientific, becoming the first public Bitcoin treasury company to buy another listed Bitcoin treasury business.
By absorbing Semler Scientific’s Bitcoin holdings and operations, Strive increased its total BTC position without relying solely on open-market purchases or additional equity raises.
What this means for investors The debt-free approach stands out in a market where several Bitcoin treasury companies have taken on significant leverage. If Bitcoin were to experience a sharp correction, the leveraged players would face margin calls and forced liquidations. Strive’s structure is designed to avoid that entirely.
The 13% yield on SATA preferred stock deserves scrutiny as well. A double-digit yield from a company whose primary asset is a volatile cryptocurrency should raise questions about sustainability, even with the current buffer of 18 months of dividend coverage. Investors should watch whether Strive can maintain that payout without eventually being forced to sell Bitcoin at inopportune times, which would undermine the entire “net buyer” thesis that Cole is pitching.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Litecoin stabilized at around $44 following a moderate pullback, as the cryptocurrency maintained its series of higher lows in recent trading sessions.
Support and resistance levels in focusAnalyst Crypto With Gopal observed that buyers swiftly returned once Litecoin revisited the $43.70 to $43.80 price zone, a level where declines had repeatedly slowed earlier in the session.
The price formation saw a reversal as Litecoin approached resistance between $44.30 and $44.35. Some selling activity emerged at this band, yet the pullback remained orderly and developed into sideways price action that gradually enticed new buyers into the market.
Several green candles emerging at $43.80 signaled a new buying opportunity, allowing Litecoin to rise above $43.90 and suggesting buyers regained short-term control, as long as support levels continue to hold.
Market participants are now closely tracking movements near the $44.20 to $44.35 range. An upward break above this zone is viewed as a signal of further bullish momentum, likely attracting additional buying interest. Alternatively, a slide below $43.70 would call the current bullish scenario into question.
Key LevelRole$43.70–$43.80Support$44.20–$44.35ResistanceLong-term outlook and price targetsAccording to analysis by Crypto King, Litecoin is retesting its former support zone between $40 and $45, which historically enabled the market to recover from deeper declines.
The ultimate price target has been noted at $412.49, with reference to Litecoin’s notable history of large price swings. Past rallies saw increases of 553% and 1,622%, followed by extended consolidation periods.
Since reaching its peak in 2021, Litecoin has moved within a broad accumulation range, marked by lower volatility and increased long-term holding by investors.
The long-term scenario points to a gradual recovery, with a potential rise toward $80 and then a target band of $120 to $140. Surpassing this range could set Litecoin on course for $200 and above if bullish conditions persist.
Despite the controlled movement, a supportive rally paired with the key support zone gives traders reasons for cautious optimism. Should buying momentum persist and the resistance zone be breached, a new upward cycle in the Litecoin market may emerge.
Mini dictionary: Crypto With Gopal and Crypto King are independent market analysts known for sharing technical insights and price forecasts for leading digital assets across major social media platforms.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) continues trading around $1.10 as weekly ETF data through July 9 shows $7.29 million in net outflows that put a nine-week inflow streak at risk.
The Nine-Week Streak Could End TodayXRP spot ETFs pulled in cumulative inflows of $1.48 billion across nine straight positive weeks, including through some of the heaviest price weakness of the year.
The weekly data through July 9 already shows $7.29 million in net outflows, meaning Friday’s unreported numbers will decide whether the streak survives or snaps for the first time in ten weeks.
Even if the streak ends, the cumulative $1.48 billion in inflows remains intact.
But a first negative weekly close would mark a notable shift in sentiment at exactly the moment XRP is attempting its most technically important breakout of the year.
XRP Holders Are Frustrated With The Kansas Jayhawks Jersey DealRipple’s sponsorship deal with the University of Kansas, placing XRP patches on Jayhawks team jerseys, drew sharp backlash from the XRP community this week.
While CEO Brad Garlinghouse called it a rare moment where his professional and personal worlds collide, many holders responded with frustration rather than enthusiasm.
One user wrote directly to Garlinghouse: “Why don’t you do what you said you would do with XRP and become the bridge asset of world finance? Stop ding around.”
Others questioned whether jersey patches served XRP holders at all, with one writing “Sell XRP to the bag holders then spend the proceeds on jersey patches” and another asking “Yo what the actual f yall got XRP on these jerseys but the price of XRP is at $1.08.”
Third Breakout Attempt Carries More Weight Than The First TwoXRP is pressing against the year-long descending trendline for the third time. The first attempt failed at $1.30.
The second collapsed. RSI bullish divergence backs this third attempt, with price printing lower lows while RSI held higher lows, confirming underlying momentum building even through the price weakness.
RSI now sits at 47.16, recovering from June’s oversold extreme. The full EMA stack remains bearish with the 20 EMA at $1.1119, 50 EMA at $1.1705, 100 EMA at $1.2712, and 200 EMA at $1.4801 all sitting overhead as resistance levels.
A daily close above $1.1119 would be the first confirmation this attempt is different from the last two. Until that prints, the channel rules still apply with $1.00 to $1.05 as the demand zone floor below.
Image: Shutterstock
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Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama announced at the Open QUICK 2026 seminar, organized by leading financial information provider QUICK on July 10, that the government is progressing as scheduled in the process to legalize crypto asset exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the country. This development follows growing international interest in similar financial products abroad.
Regulatory shift for crypto assetsRecently, Japan’s House of Representatives approved a regulatory change transferring the oversight of spot crypto assets from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This move paves the way for crypto assets to be classified as fully regulated financial products, aligning their legal framework more closely with that of equities and bonds.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed that the government is proceeding with the legalization of crypto asset ETFs as originally intended.
The new regulation strengthens the legal basis for crypto asset ETFs to be listed and traded on Japanese exchanges. Under the current timetable, these products may begin trading on Japan’s markets as early as next year.
SBI develops two innovative fund offeringsIn May, SBI Holdings announced the launch of a new crypto asset ETF. The company’s plans include a dual-asset ETF structure that will provide investors with regulated access to both Bitcoin and XRP. As one of Japan’s largest financial groups, SBI operates across banking, brokerage, and asset management services.
In addition, SBI proposed a hybrid investment fund bringing together gold-based ETFs and crypto asset ETFs. In this structure, 51% of the portfolio would be allocated to gold ETFs, while the remaining 49% would be dedicated to crypto assets such as Bitcoin ETFs. This approach targets more cautious institutional and retail investors seeking diversified exposure.
ProductContentTarget audienceDual-asset ETFBitcoin and XRPInvestors seeking regulated crypto accessHybrid fund51% gold-based ETF, 49% crypto asset ETFMore cautious institutional and retail investorsAmbitious asset growth and competitionSBI aims to reach approximately 5 trillion yen, equivalent to $32 billion in assets under management, within three years of launching these products. This target represents a bold step for crypto-themed investment products within Japan’s financial sector and signals significant anticipated demand.
The company also hopes to secure an early market advantage by moving ahead of major Japanese financial groups such as Nomura and Rakuten Securities. With expanding regulatory clarity, competition in the crypto ETF space in Japan is expected to intensify in the coming period.
Ripple partnership comes to the foreSBI’s inclusion of XRP in its ETF plan aligns with its longstanding corporate partnership with Ripple. Known for its XRP-focused payment solutions, Ripple has established close business relationships in the Japanese market, and this collaboration continues to play a significant strategic role for SBI.
SBI is developing a structure uniting Bitcoin and XRP within the same fund, while also introducing a separate model that combines gold and crypto asset ETFs in a single portfolio.
Through these initiatives, SBI seeks to attract both aggressive crypto investors and more risk-averse clients, offering diverse routes to engage with digital assets under a regulated framework.
Market analysts expect SBI’s pioneering approach and regulatory developments to spur wider adoption of crypto ETFs in Japan, potentially altering the landscape for both institutional and retail participation in the coming years.
As Japan prepares to launch crypto asset ETFs, the convergence of traditional finance and blockchain technology is poised to reshape investment options in the country, with major players vying for leadership in a rapidly evolving sector.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Ripple released roughly $1 billion worth of XRP from its escrow this week, an amount large enough to catch the attention of traders watching the token’s price action closely.
Asked how to interpret the timing, given XRP’s recent price weakness, one analyst pushed back on the idea that the unlock signals anything unusual. “This is just the standard playbook for Ripple. We’ve seen this for years,” the analyst said, describing it as part of a broader redistribution of XRP into the hands of people who will actually use the underlying technology.
Ripple unlocks roughly 1 billion XRP tokens from its escrow, every single month. On a high-volume month, the company typically sells between 180 million and 300 million tokens, while Ripple typically relocks 70 to 80 percent of that supply right back into escrow. “It’s not as if Ripple sees the writing on the wall,” the analyst said. “This is standard business practice for the company.”
The bank narrative behind the numbers
The analyst pointed to a bigger story developing alongside the CLARITY Act, the PACE Act, separate legislation that could give Ripple direct access to the Federal Reserve system, too. Citing a previous interview, the analyst argued Ripple has “every incentive in the world” to lock up its remaining escrow and use it as collateral to become the first digital bank chartered in the United States.
A co-host on the discussion noted the relock percentage matters for gauging Ripple’s intent. A 90 percent relock this month would show Ripple is flush with capital, he said, pointing to active ETF inflows and corporate revenue as signs the company does not need to dilute the market by selling more tokens than necessary.
Reading the charts
Beyond the unlock, the hosts flagged a possible technical catalyst: XRP may be breaking out of a year-long descending channel, a move they said could align with historically favorable seasonal trends for the token heading into the fall.
Story Ends Here
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XRP has once again entered a structural pattern on the higher timeframes that, in the past, has preceded dramatic rallies. Market analyst Crypto Patel notes that XRP has returned to its major accumulation area between $0.70 and $1.10—the same price range where long-term holders historically positioned themselves ahead of previous surges. Technical indicators, derivatives data, and network growth all signal in the same direction, strengthening the case for a potential major move.
Accumulation zone and technical outlook take center stageAccording to Patel, this price band mirrors the area where long-term investors historically bought ahead of XRP’s biggest rallies. CoinCodex data show that XRP is currently trading right at $1.10, sitting at the upper boundary of this critical demand zone. The analyst argues that current price action resembles previous periods of prolonged sideways movement that ultimately gave way to powerful upward trends.
Crypto Patel suggests that if XRP is able to maintain its position within the $0.70 to $1.10 accumulation zone and break above the $3 resistance, historical cycle patterns could bring the $9 level and beyond into play.
On the technical side, the high time frame MACD indicator is also under close watch. In previous cycles, a potential bullish crossover in the MACD has signaled a shift from downward to upward momentum, acting as one of the early indicators of trend reversals.
Quick glossary: The MACD is a technical indicator that measures the relationship between moving averages. A bullish crossover occurs when short-term momentum overtakes the long-term trend, often signaling a potential upward phase.
IndicatorLevelMeaningAccumulation zone$0.70 to $1.10Long-term demand areaCurrent price$1.10Upper band of the rangeKey resistance$3Break could trigger a new cycleLong-term target$9 and aboveHistorical cycle scenarioLeverage unwinds in the derivatives marketThe derivatives landscape has also shifted notably. On Binance, open interest in XRP futures has dropped to around 397 million XRP, marking the lowest level seen in over three months. During the same period, the price receded from approximately $1.55 in March to $1.10.
At first glance, the drop in open interest might signal market weakness. However, such reductions after extended corrections can be seen as a move toward healthier market conditions. Decreased leverage reduces liquidation risks and speculative froth, possibly setting a more stable foundation for price appreciation should new demand arise.
The fall in open interest to 397 million XRP in Binance futures suggests that a significant portion of leveraged traders has exited the market.
Network growth seen as supportive factorOn-chain activity also highlights continued growth in the XRP ecosystem. Approximately 40% of all XRP wallets were created in 2024 and 2025, indicating ongoing inflows of new participants despite the market’s subdued conditions over recent months.
The steady increase in wallet numbers points to a broader user base and a tilt toward long-term holding. Analysts suggest that if the current support area holds and XRP manages to reclaim $3, a fresh expansionary cycle could become a near-term focus for the cryptocurrency.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
While short-term technical indicators for XRP signal limited momentum, several chart analysts point out that the price remains in a historically significant accumulation zone. They suggest that if XRP breaks through critical resistance levels, a broader recovery could be on the horizon.
The macro view: XRP’s accumulation phaseAccording to independent market analysts sharing long-term XRP/USDT charts, recent price compression appears more like a classic accumulation phase than the start of a new downward cycle. XRP is known as the native asset of the Ripple ecosystem, which focuses on payment infrastructure.
Analysis indicates that for nearly two years, XRP has formed a large symmetrical triangle on higher timeframes. The triangle’s lower boundary has repeatedly acted as macro support during previous corrections, with buyers stepping in around these levels.
One analyst argues that mechanical projections do not support the scenario of a bearish breakout, instead interpreting the current structure as a period of accumulation.
The assessment also identifies the grey zone surrounding the current price as an institutional buying range. Should XRP overcome the triangle resistance, the probability increases for a brief pullback followed by a push toward $1.50 and $1.90. Over a longer period, the $2.50 to $2.60 band is seen as a principal technical target and strong resistance zone.
Historical support levels take center stageCrypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO also spotlights XRP’s historical macro accumulation range, utilizing the monthly Bent Fork chart. According to the analyst, XRP trades close to a key demand area between $0.85 and $1.20. In the current market cycle, the $0.85 to $1.10 band stands out as the main support region.
Glossary: The Bent Fork is a technical analysis method used to examine the slope and channel structure of price movements. Analysts use it on long-term charts to evaluate support, resistance, and probable directions.
EGRAG CRYPTO envisions that for a bullish scenario to gain traction, XRP must first reclaim the $1.65 level. After that, resistance zones at $3.00 and $3.50 could come into play. While a long-term projection includes a $15 target, this is presented as a broad scenario for the future, not as a near-term forecast.
EGRAG CRYPTO emphasizes that staying above the EMA band maintains the structure necessary for a solid price bottom.
Mixed signals in the short-term outlookShorter-term charts paint a more cautious picture. Another analyst points out that while the overall trend remains upward, XRP is currently trapped between the recent swing low near $1.0800 and resistance around $1.1825. In the near term, the $1.1015 mark is being watched as a key support.
Holding above this level could encourage the formation of higher lows and increase the chances of a continued uptrend. Conversely, a loss of support may prompt liquidity to shift below the recent lows, leading to heightened volatility.
Technical indicators reflect a balanced marketAccording to TradingView data, the overall technical outlook for XRP is neutral, comprising 11 sell, 9 neutral, and 6 buy signals. The RSI reads 46.70, Stochastic %K stands at 49.13, and CCI is at 18.07—all in neutral territory. The ADX is at a weak trend value of 17.60, while the momentum indicator (0.06743) and MACD (-0.01523) issue buy signals. However, the Awesome Oscillator, at -0.00971, remains on the sell side.
IndicatorValueStatusRSI 1446.70NeutralADX 1417.60Weak trendMomentum 100.06743BuyMACD 12,26-0.01523BuyMoving averages create a more cautious backdrop. The 10-period EMA offers support at $1.10593, while the 20-period EMA places resistance at $1.11152. For higher timeframes, the 50 EMA stands at $1.17031, the 100 SMA at $1.28246, and the 200 SMA at $1.45840. This paints a picture of XRP trading below several key long-term trend indicators.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
XRP-backed ETFs have just experienced their first significant setback in 2026. After months of enthusiasm around crypto-related financial products, the latest figures reveal a clear trend reversal. The capital outflows observed in these funds question the scenario of a seamless institutional adoption for the Ripple ecosystem. This change in dynamics raises questions about the strength of investors’ appetite for altcoins through listed financial vehicles.
In brief XRP ETFs record one of the largest capital outflows of 2026, marking a clear break from the optimism of previous months. Consolidated data confirms massive capital withdrawals, forcing major issuers to urgently liquidate significant market positions. This sudden disengagement is explained by a change in fund managers’ attitudes amid a shifting macroeconomic and regulatory context. The market now awaits to see if this healthy purge will attract new buyers or if it signals a more lasting disenchantment with traditional finance. Factual Data on Outflowing Flows While XRP adoption is progressing on other fronts, weekly reports on institutional fund flows have revealed a historic decline in investor exposure to the Ripple token. Consolidated data from market analyses indicate several major factual elements characterizing this unprecedented financial capitulation :
XRP ETFs recorded one of their largest net capital outflows volumes of the current year, wiping out several months of continuous accumulation in one go ; This massive withdrawal movement was aggressively concentrated on the main global issuers of derivative products ; Managers of these regulated funds had to liquidate significant spot market positions to meet withdrawal demands ; The simultaneity of these massive outflows indicates a deliberate and coordinated choice by wealth managers, eager to drastically reduce their exposure to this specific product. To understand the underlying dynamics of this phenomenon, it is necessary to observe the technical structure of these fund withdrawals. Unlike usual daily fluctuations reflecting simple short-term arbitrages, the financial volume withdrawn this week demonstrates a global risk reassessment by major portfolios.
Fund managers had to face simultaneous withdrawal requests, forcing custodial structures to move massive blocks of XRP out of the ETF collateralization circuits. Financial experts thus point out that such behavior in regulated markets often precedes periods of high volatility on regular exchange platforms. These technical details confirm that the movement is not a mere temporary correction, but rather a major restructuring of asset allocations by top-tier investors.
Why Is Capital Fleeing the Ripple Network? The explanation for this sudden turnaround lies not only in the accounting analysis of flows but finds its roots in a profound change in the macroeconomic and sectoral environment specific to Ripple. Indeed, institutional investors generally react to specific fundamental signals, whether unexpected regulatory changes, interest rate adjustments, or strategic reallocations toward assets considered more resilient in the short term.
This disenchantment with XRP ETFs also coincides with a change in risk appetite among fund managers, who now seem to favor more conservative yield strategies at the expense of high-volatility altcoins. The absence of new immediate growth catalysts for the Ripple network ultimately convinced the most cautious investors to secure their positions outside this financial vehicle.
Another determining factor lies in the fierce competition now taking place among different ETFs in the Web3 market. With the multiplication of available financial products, fund managers are making strict arbitrages, moving capital toward ecosystems that show more convincing network growth metrics or immediate yield prospects.
The temporary lack of clarity on certain aspects of Ripple’s business development may have prompted part of traditional finance to step back, preferring to observe the situation’s evolution from neutral cash positions. This cautious behavior demonstrates that institutional capital loyalty is fleeting and depends on the constant ability to generate trust.
What Are the Consequences for the Future of XRP? The direct consequences of this wave of withdrawals are already being felt across the entire XRP market structure. The reduction in the size of assets under management in ETFs mechanically decreases the available institutional liquidity, which has the effect of amplifying price movements and weakening major technical supports of the token.
Moreover, this disengagement creates a negative signal effect for the traditional finance sector, which could temporarily slow the launch of new derivatives based on secondary cryptos. The drying up of these buying flows deprives the asset of essential support to maintain its upward trajectory, forcing the retail market to absorb alone the residual selling pressure generated by these portfolio restructurings.
In the long term, issuers’ ability to stabilize the situation will determine the viability of these financial instruments for the general public. Should capital outflows persist, some funds might be forced to restructure their offerings or even temporarily suspend the creation of new shares to protect remaining investors.
This would cast a pall over all altcoins aspiring to obtain their own ETFs, demonstrating that regulatory approval alone does not guarantee commercial success or financial flow stability. Market participants will therefore closely watch the reaction of market makers and ecosystem whales to see if an internal buying force can compensate for this institutional void.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
TLDR: XRP funding rates on Binance have turned extremely negative, signaling heavy short positioning. XRP has dropped 70% since July 2025, though it remains above its historical lows. Open interest fell to $350.6 million as leveraged traders exit futures positions broadly. NVT ratio stays elevated at 162.86, showing network activity lags behind valuation levels. XRP funding rates have dropped to extremely negative levels as the token continues to trade under pressure. The broader altcoin market remains weak, with roughly 40% of altcoins sitting close to their all-time lows.
XRP has avoided that fate so far, yet it has still lost around 70% of its value since reaching $2.45 in July 2025. Traders on Binance are increasingly positioning for further downside.
Funding Rates Signal Extreme Pessimism Derivatives data shows that bearish sentiment toward XRP has intensified over recent weeks. Funding rates on Binance, when aggregated over a 30-day period to reflect broader trader sentiment, have moved into extreme negative territory. This pattern indicates that a growing number of traders are holding short positions against XRP.
Analyst Darkfost noted that this pessimism now forms a clear consensus among derivatives traders. According to the analysis, funding rates for XRP have held a bearish bias since the beginning of the year. Such consistency over several months points to sustained skepticism about the token’s near-term direction.
🔴 XRP funding rates hit extreme bearish levels after 70% correction
The Altcoin sector continues to be in significant difficulty, with around 40% of Altcoins currently trading very close to their all time low.
📉 XRP has not been spared by this correction even though it… pic.twitter.com/SrEyrMHd3p
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 10, 2026
Historically, extreme funding rate readings following steep corrections have sometimes preceded reversals. Darkfost pointed to April 2025 as an example, when XRP fell to $1.25 before staging a recovery. That rebound eventually produced a 126% rally, illustrating how oversold conditions can shift quickly.
Whether a similar pattern emerges this time remains uncertain. The current setup shares some similarities with past bottoming phases, but market conditions differ across cycles. Traders are watching closely for signs that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.
Open Interest and Market Cap Point to Weak Demand Beyond funding rates, other metrics also reflect a cautious market environment. Open interest in XRP futures has declined to $350.6 million, one of its lowest readings in recent months. This drop suggests that leveraged traders are closing positions rather than adding new exposure.
Analyst Pelinay observed that XRP’s market capitalization has also fallen, reaching $10.89 billion. This decline shows that capital is leaving the market alongside reduced leverage.
Source: Cryptoquant
Fewer open positions combined with a shrinking market cap suggest limited fresh buying interest at current levels.
The NVT ratio, which compares network value to transaction volume, remains elevated at 162.86. A high NVT ratio typically signals that on-chain activity has not kept pace with valuation. This gap suggests that network usage has yet to support a meaningful price recovery.
Taken together, these indicators describe a market where risk appetite has cooled substantially. Futures positioning continues to shrink while spot market capitalization contracts in parallel.
Sellers appear to retain control of price action for now, even as funding rates flash signals reminiscent of past reversal points.
XRP spent the first half of 2026 defending the one level that matters, the $1 mark, while a wall of bullish fundamentals, ETF inflows, whale accumulation, and a finished lawsuit failed to move the price. Now a delayed act of Congress has become the single catalyst that could break the deadlock in either direction. This is the level, the tension between fundamentals and price, and the honest case on both sides for the month ahead.
Summary
XRP remains trapped between $1 support and $1.20 resistance as bullish fundamentals struggle to lift the price. Progress on the CLARITY Act could unlock stronger institutional demand, while another delay may pressure the $1 floor. ETF inflows, whale accumulation, Fed policy, and broader crypto sentiment will shape XRP’s direction through July. XRP (XRP) enters July 2026 trading near $1.14, and the number hides a standoff. For months, the token has done something that frustrates every holder watching the headlines: it has absorbed a steady stream of unambiguously bullish news, sustained ETF inflows, tripling whale accumulation, the long legal cloud finally lifted, and gone essentially nowhere, pinned in a range whose floor is the psychologically decisive $1.00 mark. The fundamentals say one thing, and the price says another, and the gap between them is the defining feature of XRP right now.
XRP daily price chart | Source: crypto.news The catalyst that could finally resolve the standoff is not a product or a partnership but a piece of legislation. The market-structure bill that would settle how digital assets like XRP are classified in the United States, and with it the path to spot ETF conversions and deeper institutional access, has slipped from its expected timeline toward late July or August, and its progress or delay has become the swing factor traders are watching above all else. XRP sits, in other words, between a well-defended floor and a legislative catalyst, with fundamentals loaded on one side and a stubborn chart on the other, waiting for something to break the tension.
This prediction maps that standoff the way a trader would: the price levels that define the range, the strange disconnect between XRP’s strong fundamentals and its flat price, the bullish case built on flows and legislation, the bearish case built on the chart and the broader market, the analyst and prediction-market targets worth knowing, and the honest bottom line on a month that could stay boring or break hard. None of it is investment advice, and XRP’s history of violent moves means every level here can be overrun by a single headline.
The levels that matter The map begins and ends with $1.00, because no level on XRP’s chart carries more weight. The token trades near $1.14, and the entire near-term structure organizes around the $1.00 to $1.06 support band, where a large concentration of XRP has accumulated and where buyers have repeatedly defended the line. Holding that band is the whole bullish premise; losing it changes the picture entirely.
On the downside, the immediate support sits around $1.08 to $1.10, the near shelf beneath the current price, and below it the decisive $1.00 to $1.06 zone, the floor whose defense has defined the range for months. A clean break below $1.00 would be more than technical; it would puncture the psychological line the entire holder base watches, and would open a path toward the $0.90 area and, if selling accelerated, the low $0.80s that mark the range’s worst case. Because so much rests on the round number, the reaction at $1.00 is the single most important thing to watch on any decline.
On the upside, the first resistance is the $1.18 to $1.20 area, the ceiling that has repeatedly capped rallies and that prediction markets treat as the key line for the month. Above it, clearing the low $1.20s would signal the range breaking upward, with the next meaningful hurdles near $1.30 and then the $1.50 to $1.65 zone that would mark a genuine trend change after months of grinding. The structure, in short, is a coiled range: a heavily defended floor at $1.00, a stubborn ceiling near $1.20, and a token compressed between them waiting for a catalyst, with the legislative calendar the most likely source of one.
The disconnect: strong fundamentals, flat price The most important thing to understand about XRP right now is why it is not higher, because the bullish fundamentals are real and the flat price is the puzzle. Consider what has accumulated on the positive side of the ledger. Spot XRP ETFs have drawn sustained inflows over a multi-week stretch, real institutional money entering through the creation-and-redemption machinery that turns inflows into spot buying.
Whale accumulation has intensified, with large-wallet activity and exchange outflows rising sharply as big holders move coins into storage, the same accumulation-into-weakness pattern visible across the majors, the tradable float on exchanges falling toward multi-year lows. The legal uncertainty that shadowed XRP for years has resolved. And Ripple has continued stacking institutional wins across payments and custody. By the usual logic, this combination should have driven a substantial move, and it has not.
The explanation is partly that XRP does not trade in isolation. It remains correlated with the broader crypto market, and that market spent the first half of 2026 in a significant drawdown driven by the Federal Reserve and risk-off flows, the same macro pressure that pulled Bitcoin from the $90,000s toward $60,000.
In that environment, XRP’s token-specific tailwinds were fighting a market-wide headwind, and the result was a standoff: the bullish flows defended the floor while the bearish macro capped the ceiling, producing exactly the compressed range the chart shows. It is also partly that the market is waiting for the one catalyst that converts XRP’s fundamental progress into a structural demand shift, the legislative clarity that would unlock the next wave of institutional access, and until that arrives, the accumulated fundamentals sit as stored potential rather than realized price. The disconnect, in other words, is not evidence the bull case is wrong; it is evidence the bull case is waiting for a trigger the calendar has delayed.
The bullish case: flows, float, and the CLARITY catalyst The case for an upside break rests on three reinforcing pillars. The first is the flow-and-float dynamic. Sustained ETF inflows represent real buying, and they are meeting a shrinking available supply as whales pull coins off exchanges into storage, a classic setup where steady demand meets contracting float and price becomes increasingly sensitive to any demand shock. If the accumulation continues and the float keeps thinning, the conditions for a sharp move higher build quietly beneath the flat price, needing only a catalyst to ignite.
The second pillar is that catalyst: the market-structure legislation. If the bill advances on its revised timeline, it would settle XRP’s regulatory classification in the United States and clear the path for spot ETF conversions and the deeper institutional participation that a defined legal status unlocks, the classification fight whose stakes reach across the entire market.
Because so much of XRP’s institutional demand is gated behind that clarity, its arrival is the specific event that could convert the stored fundamental potential into realized price, and the market’s attention to the legislative calendar reflects exactly that.
The third pillar is seasonal and technical: July has historically been one of XRP’s stronger months, and a token compressed against a defended floor with thinning float is structurally primed for an upside move if any catalyst breaks the range. Combine continued flows, a legislative green light, and favorable seasonality, and the bullish path toward the $1.20 ceiling and beyond becomes credible.
What the legislation would actually change Because the entire bull case pivots on the market-structure bill, it is worth being precise about what its passage would and would not do, since the market’s fixation on it can blur into vagueness. The bill’s core function is classification: it would define whether a digital asset like XRP is treated as a commodity or a security under United States law, and assign clear jurisdiction between regulators accordingly. That sounds technical, and its consequences are concrete.
A definitive commodity-style classification would remove the regulatory overhang that has kept many institutions on the sidelines, clear the path for spot ETF products and their conversions to proceed without legal ambiguity, and let banks, asset managers, and payment institutions engage with XRP under rules they can actually follow instead of guessing at.
The reason this matters so much for XRP specifically is that XRP’s investment thesis is unusually institutional. Its core use case runs through payments, cross-border settlement, and the regulated financial institutions Ripple has spent a decade courting, which means XRP’s demand is gated behind regulatory clarity to a degree that more retail-driven assets are not.
A bank cannot build on an asset whose legal status is undefined, and much of the accumulated fundamental progress, the custody deals, the payment integrations, the institutional partnerships, converts into actual token demand only once the classification question is settled.
This is why the legislation functions as the swing factor: it is not just another headline but the specific key that unlocks the demand the other fundamentals have been building toward. It is also why a delay hurts more than it would for most tokens, because the stored potential cannot be realized until the gate opens, and every slip in the timeline extends the standoff the chart reflects.
Two caveats keep the analysis honest. First, legislative outcomes are binary and uncertain: the bill could advance, stall, or pass in a weakened form, and the market’s apparent assumption that clarity eventually arrives is a bet, not a certainty.
Second, even favorable passage would not produce instant demand; institutional adoption moves on quarterly timelines, through risk committees and compliance reviews, so the price effect of clarity would likely build over months instead of spiking on the announcement, the same slow procedural cadence that governs every institution’s entry into the asset.
The catalyst is real, in other words, but its payoff is a curve, not a switch, which matters for anyone expecting a single legislative headline to resolve the standoff overnight.
The fundamentals beneath the token It is worth grounding the bull case in the specific fundamental progress that has accumulated, because the disconnect between that progress and the flat price is the month’s central puzzle. On the institutional side, Ripple has continued building the payments and custody business that gives XRP its distinctive use case, adding banking relationships and settlement integrations that deepen the token’s role in cross-border flows.
On the product side, the regulated stablecoin in Ripple’s ecosystem has grown into a meaningful settlement instrument, and the broader infrastructure around XRP, custody, tokenization, and institutional rails has matured steadily. On the market-structure side, the arrival of spot ETFs gave regulated capital a compliant path into XRP for the first time, and their sustained inflows are the clearest evidence that the demand is real.
The bearish counter to all of this is not that the fundamentals are fake but that they are already priced, or that they matter less than the market believes for a token whose price is ultimately set by supply, demand, and macro sentiment like any other.
A skeptic notes that XRP has a large supply, that some of the accumulated demand may be offset by steady selling from long-term holders and scheduled releases, and that fundamental progress has repeatedly failed to translate into price, which at some point becomes evidence about the relationship itself, not a temporary lag.
Both readings are live, and the honest synthesis is that XRP’s fundamentals have built a loaded setup whose realization depends on a catalyst and a cooperative macro, neither of which the token controls, which is exactly why the price sits where it does: potential energy waiting for a trigger, in a market not yet ready to price it.
The bearish case: the chart and the market The case for continued weakness, or a downside break, is equally grounded. The first and simplest bearish point is that the range has held for months and the burden of proof is on the bulls: XRP has repeatedly failed to clear the $1.18 to $1.20 ceiling, and a token that cannot break resistance despite a wall of good news is a token whose buyers are exhausted at those levels, which often precedes a move down rather than up.
The disconnect between fundamentals and price cuts both ways, and the bearish reading is that if this much good news cannot lift the price, the selling pressure, much of it from the same steady supply the market must absorb, is stronger than the bulls admit.
The second bearish point is the macro and the legislative risk itself. XRP’s correlation with the broader market means a weak crypto tape, driven by a hawkish Federal Reserve at its late-July meeting or renewed risk-off flows, would pressure XRP regardless of its own fundamentals, and the same drawdown that capped the first half could extend into the summer.
The legislative catalyst is also a double-edged sword: a further delay, a watering-down of the bill, or a disappointing outcome would remove the very trigger the bull case depends on, and a market that has priced in eventual clarity could sell the disappointment, breaking the $1.00 floor and opening the path toward $0.90 and the low $0.80s. The bearish scenario, in short, is that the range resolves downward, either because the macro drags XRP with the market or because the awaited catalyst slips again and disappoints a market tired of waiting.
Three scenarios for July Pulling the forces together produces three coherent paths for the month, organized around the two levels and the one catalyst.
The base case is the range holding. If the legislation stays in limbo and the macro neither rescues nor crushes risk assets, XRP most likely continues to grind between the $1.00 to $1.06 floor and the $1.18 to $1.20 ceiling, defending the round number on dips and stalling at resistance on rallies, exactly the compression that has defined recent months. This is the highest-probability path absent a catalyst, and it resolves only when the legislation or the macro forces a break.
The bullish scenario needs the catalyst. Advancement of the market-structure bill on its revised timeline, ideally alongside a stable-to-positive crypto tape and continued ETF inflows, could break XRP above the $1.20 ceiling, turn the thinning float into a demand-shock accelerant, and open the path toward $1.30 and the $1.50 to $1.65 trend-change zone. Favorable July seasonality adds a tailwind. This is the path the accumulated fundamentals have been building toward, and it activates on a legislative green light.
The bearish scenario breaks the floor. A hawkish Federal Reserve dragging the whole market down, a renewed risk-off wave, or, most pointedly, another legislative delay or a disappointing outcome could puncture the $1.00 line, trigger the psychological break the entire holder base watches, and open the path toward $0.90 and the low $0.80s. The cruelest version is the catalyst itself disappointing, since a market that has waited months for clarity could sell the letdown hard.
The targets on the table The forecasts around XRP span an unusually wide range, reflecting the genuine uncertainty of a token waiting on legislation. Prediction-market data leans cautious for the short term, with traders assigning strong odds, around 70%, to XRP closing above $1.20 on the relevant horizon, meaningful odds of a close below $1.00, and only a small probability of a move to $2 or above in the near window, a spread that captures the market’s sense of a range more likely to hold than to break dramatically either way.
On the analyst side, one major bank cut its XRP forecast sharply, from $8 to $2.80, framing the reduction as a return to realism rather than a loss of faith, while maintaining a substantially higher longer-dated target, and the range of published targets runs from sub-$1 bearish cases through low-single-digit base cases to the double-digit forecasts that depend on full institutional adoption playing out.
The spread from a sub-$1 downside to double-digit bull cases is the honest picture, and it maps directly onto the legislative binary: the bullish targets largely assume the market-structure clarity arrives and unlocks institutional demand, while the bearish ones assume continued delay and macro pressure.
For July specifically, the levels matter more than the price targets: the realistic range centers on the $1.00 floor and the $1.20 ceiling, with a break of either level the signal that the standoff has resolved, and the far targets in both directions activating only if the range genuinely breaks.
What to watch as the month unfolds For a reader tracking XRP through July, the signals worth monitoring are specific and mostly public. The legislative calendar sits at the top: any concrete movement on the market-structure bill, a committee vote, a floor schedule, a revised timeline, is the highest-impact news the token can receive, and its absence is itself information, since continued silence extends the standoff.
The $1.00 line is the second signal, and its behavior on any decline, whether buyers defend it as they have for months or whether it finally gives way, will tell more about the token’s near-term direction than any headline. The $1.20 ceiling is the mirror: a decisive close above it on volume would signal the range breaking upward before most forecasts caught up.
Beneath the levels, three flow-and-context series carry the real story. ETF flows are the clearest demand gauge, and a sustained acceleration or reversal there would move the odds materially. Exchange-reserve and whale-wallet data show whether the float keeps thinning, the quiet structural setup beneath the flat price.
And the broader crypto tape, driven by the same Federal Reserve meeting that dominates the Bitcoin outlook, is the macro backdrop that can override XRP’s own fundamentals in either direction. A reader who watches the legislative calendar, the two levels, and those three series has the full dashboard, and is positioned to interpret the month as it happens instead of reacting to it after the fact. XRP has spent months as a coiled spring; the value of the dashboard is that it shows, in real time, which way the spring is finally releasing.
The honest bottom line XRP’s July 2026 is a coiled spring waiting for a trigger, and the trigger is on a calendar the market does not control. The token enters the month with genuinely bullish fundamentals, sustained ETF inflows, intensifying whale accumulation, thinning float, and resolved legal risk, all of which have failed to lift it out of a range because a market-wide drawdown has capped it and because the one catalyst that would convert fundamentals into price, legislative clarity, keeps slipping. The result is a compressed range between a heavily defended $1.00 floor and a stubborn $1.20 ceiling, most likely holding until either the legislation advances or the macro forces a break.
The single most useful thing to watch is the legislative calendar, because it is the swing factor that dwarfs the others: advancement toward the revised late-July or August timeline is the specific event that could ignite the accumulated fundamentals, while another delay or a disappointing outcome is the specific risk that could break the floor.
Beneath that, the $1.00 line is the number that matters; its defense the bull case intact and its failure the bear case realized. XRP has spent months proving that good news alone will not move it; July’s question is whether the one piece of news it is actually waiting for finally arrives, and honestly, the calendar, not any forecast, will answer it.
A closing word on the disconnect that runs through this entire outlook, because it is the most important thing for a holder to internalize. It can be maddening to watch a token absorb clearly good news and refuse to move, and the temptation is to conclude either that the news is meaningless or that the price is broken. Neither is quite right. What XRP is demonstrating is the difference between fundamental progress and the specific trigger that prices it, and for an asset whose demand is gated behind regulation, that trigger is legislative, binary, and outside anyone’s control.
The accumulated fundamentals are not wasted; they are stored, and stored potential is exactly what produces the sharp moves that follow long compressions, in either direction. The month ahead is less a question of whether XRP’s fundamentals are good, they are, than of whether the one catalyst they are waiting for finally arrives, and the discipline the situation demands is the patience to watch the calendar and the levels, not the noise, and to let the range’s eventual break, whenever and whichever way it comes, be the signal that the waiting is over.
XRP has been here before, coiled and waiting, and its history is one of long dormancy punctuated by moves that arrive without warning and travel far before anyone adjusts. That history counsels neither confidence nor despair, only readiness: the setup is loaded, the trigger is identified, and the timing belongs to a calendar in Washington, not a chart in a trading app.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and you can lose your entire investment. Price levels, forecasts, and the status and timing of pending legislation reflect information current as of July 9, 2026, and are subject to change; verify current conditions before making any decision. Always do your own research.
The cryptocurrency market has had a turbulent week overshadowed by geopolitical tensions. Santiment, an on-chain data and analytics platform, evaluated recent market developments and notable metrics in its published report.
The most significant macroeconomic development of the week was the negative statement from the US regarding the ceasefire process in the Middle East. According to Santiment analysts, while this development initially created predictable FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) and a pullback in the market, the impact of such geopolitical news on the market is gradually diminishing. The report stated, “The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the news flow needed to create a price break of the same magnitude; the market reaction to macroeconomic developments fades over time.”
After hitting a low of $58,100 towards the end of June, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a “relief rally” of approximately 9.2% in the first week of July, testing levels around $64,500 during the week. However, Santiment is taking a cautious approach to this rise:
While large wallets (whales) holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been on a general selling trend since the end of April, individual investors continue to buy. Although there has been a slight upturn among whales in the last week (a weak accumulation of approximately 4,095 BTC), this does not yet indicate a permanent trend reversal. Social media discussions about Bitcoin have decreased by 18%. The decline in social media volume for major assets like Ethereum (down 5%) and Tether (down 15%) also indicates a continued general bearish sentiment and apathy among investors. The overall market’s bullish/bearish sentiment has stabilized at a fairly neutral level of 1.06. The decline in expectations on social media suggests the rally is being perceived as a “dead cat bounce.”
Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV (Minimum Resistance to Markets) is at -27.5%, while Ethereum’s is at -38%. This indicates a significant market downturn, but for long-term buyers, the risk is relatively low compared to historical averages.
XRP’s MVRV (Minimum Viable Rate) for both short and long term has fallen below -45%. Santiment notes that, mathematically, XRP is in one of the most significant “bottom opportunity zones” in its 12-year history, with reduced downside risk, but it will not escape altcoin pressure if BTC falls sharply.
*This is not investment advice.
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XRP, the digital asset developed by Ripple Labs for cross-border payments, has come under renewed selling pressure as derivatives traders turn increasingly bearish. Binance, one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchanges, now reports funding rates for XRP at some of the most negative levels seen in recent months. The shift reflects a consensus among traders who are betting on further declines in the token’s price.
Bearish sentiment intensifies in derivatives marketRecent data from Binance shows that over a 30-day period, XRP’s funding rates have sunk into deep negative territory, indicating more traders are taking short positions. Funding rates serve as an indicator for market sentiment in perpetual futures trading by measuring whether traders in long or short positions are paying to hold those trades.
Analyst Darkfost commented that persistent negative rates demonstrate a clear change in outlook among derivatives traders, who now overwhelmingly expect lower prices for XRP in the near term. He pointed out that this bearish bias has remained in place since the start of the year, reflecting sustained uncertainty among market participants.
XRP funding rates have reached extreme bearish levels following a 70% price drop from its July 2025 peak, reinforcing negative sentiment across the altcoin market and showing traders’ widespread expectation of further declines.
History shows that periods of deeply negative funding rates may precede market reversals, as seen in April 2025, when XRP fell to $1.25 before recovering in a 126% rally. However, analysts caution that every cycle presents different dynamics, and traders remain alert to whether a similar turnaround could occur.
Market cap and open interest signal cautious outlookAlongside extreme funding rates, open interest for XRP futures has dropped to $350.6 million, marking one of the lowest levels in recent months. Open interest tracks the total value of outstanding futures contracts and serves as an indicator of leverage and overall market engagement. The current decline suggests that many leveraged traders are reducing or closing their positions rather than initiating new bets.
Meanwhile, market capitalization for XRP has contracted to $10.89 billion. Analyst Pelinay noted that the shrinking market cap aligns with falling open interest, highlighting limited appetite among investors to hold or accumulate XRP at current price levels.
The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio remains elevated at 162.86, indicating that XRP’s network activity has not grown sufficiently to support its market valuation. High NVT ratios can signal overvaluation when compared to actual on-chain use, raising concerns about the token’s current pricing relative to transaction volume.
Taken together, these signals point to a market where demand is subdued and risk exposure is being trimmed. As sellers maintain pressure, traders are keeping a close eye for any shift that could trigger a potential rebound.
MetricCurrent ValueRecent TrendXRP Funding Rate (Binance)Extremely negativeDecreasingOpen Interest (XRP Futures)$350.6 millionDecreasingMarket Cap (XRP)$10.89 billionDecreasingNVT Ratio162.86ElevatedXRP’s move contrasts with about 40% of altcoins, many of which now trade near their all-time lows. Despite losing nearly 70% since its peak of $2.45 in July 2025, XRP remains above its historical minimum, though the trend in metrics such as funding rates and open interest shows traders expect more downside.
Derivatives traders remain deeply pessimistic about XRP as open interest and market cap decline, while network activity continues to lag and sellers keep downward pressure on prices.
Mini dictionary: Funding rate — In cryptocurrency futures, the funding rate is a periodic payment exchanged between long and short position holders depending on the difference between perpetual contract prices and spot market prices. Extreme negative rates indicate that traders holding short positions are paying those in long positions, reflecting heavy bearish sentiment.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Meanwhile, Ethereum is back at $1,800, SOL is struggling to maintain $80, while XRP has defended the $1.10 support.
It was another eventful week in the cryptocurrency markets, dominated by negative news, but BTC has somehow managed to stay afloat and mark some gains.
Recall that bitcoin began its recovery last weekend after it had dipped below $58,000 earlier that week for the first time in nearly two years. However, it quickly rebounded and reclaimed the $60,000 resistance. It kept climbing on Friday and Saturday and tapped $63,300 before it retreated slightly to $62,500 on Sunday.
Monday started on the right foot, with a surge to $64,000 for the first time in two weeks. However, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin announced its second sale in under two months at that point, resulting in immediate chaos. As this one was a lot more significant, with the company offloading over 3,500 units, BTC’s price reacted with a painful decline to $61,200.
Instead of plunging further as it did after the previous sale in early June, though, the bulls stepped up and drove it north to almost $64,800. Another leg down followed in the middle of the week, and BTC slipped to $61,600 as the US and Iran launched new strikes against each other in the Middle East and the POTUS said the MoU between the two is over.
Nevertheless, bitcoin bounced off again as the two warring countries are reportedly setting up new talks. It jumped to $64,500 minutes ago, showing a 3.5% weekly increase. ETH is up by almost 3% in the same timeframe to $1,800, while ZEC, UNI, and BCH have marked even bigger gains. In contrast, SOL, DOGE, RAIN, and XLM are deep in the red.
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Ripple (XRP) Scores Major European Win With Full MiCA License. One of the most significant Ripple-related news this week came from Europe as the company received full authorization to operate as a Crypto Asset Service Provider in the Old Continent from Luxembourg’s regulator. This allows it to offer its regulated crypto payments platform throughout the European Economic Area.
Charles Hoskinson Says Ethereum Is Adopting Cardano Ideas Without Credit. Hoskinson accused Ethereum of copying Cardano’s innovations, particularly in UTXO payment models, without proper acknowledgment. Ethereum’s proposal aims to reduce state storage for payments, drawing from Cardano’s long-established concepts.
Solana (SOL) FUD Hits 2026 High: Why It Could Be a Bullish Twist. SOL’s painful decline over the past week led to a large wave of negative comments online and low trading volumes. However, the analysts from Santiment indicated that such environments typically lead to market reversals and more profound rallies.
Analyst Sees Upside for ETH Ahead of Glamsterdam Upgrade. The largest altcoin trades roughly 65% away from its peak, but the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade could trigger a sharp rebound. Although the social interest remains low, analysts outlined a divergence between steady on-chain usage and weak social media presence that often leads to major price changes.
Bitmine Buys Another 42K ETH as 5% Supply Goal Comes Within Reach. The former bitcoin miner accumulated another 42,197 ETH over the previous week and now controls roughly 4.8% of the asset’s circulating supply. Although its unrealized losses are still well into the billions of dollars, it continues to stake more ETH and expects over $200 million in annualized staking rewards.
Charts This week, we have a chart analysis of Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid – click here for the complete price analysis.
BlackRock has transferred 8,700 ETH—valued at approximately $15.81 million—to Coinbase Prime in the latest significant move tracked on the blockchain. According to data from Onchain Lens, the transfer originated from wallets linked to BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF, known by its ticker ETHA, coinciding with escalating outflows from the fund.
Transfer coincided with mounting ETF redemptionsOn the same day, BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF, ETHA, saw a net outflow of 7,240 ETH, representing around $12.67 million. This continued a trend of weak capital inflows into Ethereum ETFs, underlining continued pressure on the investment products amid challenging investor sentiment.
BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, remains under close observation in the cryptocurrency ETF sector. Coinbase Prime, on the other hand, serves as a leading platform offering custody, trading, and execution services tailored to institutional clients navigating the digital asset space.
According to Onchain Lens, 8,700 ETH was moved from BlackRock’s ETHA-linked wallets to Coinbase Prime during the exact period when substantial outflows hit ETHA.
Outflows deepen in Ethereum ETFsData for July 9 shows total daily outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs reaching $52.08 million. The largest single-fund withdrawal was recorded in Fidelity’s FETH. These figures highlight persistently weak short-term investor demand across the sector.
ETF flows have become a key barometer of overall market sentiment in recent quarters. June stood out as a period of heightened redemptions, with Ethereum ETFs seeing $690 million in net outflows—extending the negative streak that began in the first quarter of the year.
ItemAmountBlackRock transfer8,700 ETHTransfer value$15.81 millionETHA daily outflow7,240 ETHETHA daily outflow value$12.67 millionTotal daily Ethereum ETF outflow$52.08 millionNet figure after June$690 million net outflowMarket looks to Q3 signalsFollowing a lackluster first half of the year, investors have begun watching for signals that could shape the remainder of 2026. Historical data suggest that the third quarter has sometimes marked the beginning of recovery phases for Ethereum.
Analytics from CoinGlass reveal that since 2016, Ethereum has averaged an 8.08% return in third quarters, finishing seven out of the last eleven Q3 periods in positive territory. Notably, Q3 of 2025 saw a robust 66.55% surge.
Despite prior years hinting at stronger Q3 trends, investors are cautious, noting that a lack of new catalysts means past performance alone might not be enough to spark a sustainable recovery.
It is repeatedly emphasized that historical results are no guarantee of future outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum posted a 2.6% gain, outperforming Bitcoin and climbing to $1,790. This price action fuels ongoing debate about whether ETH can break above its pattern of descending highs and lows.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
A sharp divergence is opening up between crypto price performance and the underlying protocol economy. The latest Bitwise market update shows the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index dropped 15.4% in the second quarter, with eight of its ten constituents posting negative returns. It marks the third consecutive quarter of losses—the longest such streak since the 2022 bear market.
Yet the same report details a parallel universe of on-chain expansion. Ethereum transaction activity is now roughly 13 times higher than the 2022 bear-market bottom. DeFi total value locked has climbed more than 60%. Stablecoin assets under management have roughly doubled. Prediction market volume hit a record $43.2 billion during the quarter, while tokenized real‑world assets rose 50.3% year to date to $32.89 billion.
The ETF Drain and Where Capital Is Fleeing Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their worst quarter of outflows on record, confirming that institutional money has been pulling back. This is not a subtle rotation; it is a historic retreat. Yet while ETF investors step away, the stablecoin settlement engine hums along at 2.3 times the volume of Visa. That signals a crypto‑native user base that is far from idle.
What makes the ETF outflows especially painful is that they arrived after months of regulatory breakthroughs and launched with high expectations. The sheer speed of the reversal caught many allocators off guard. With no comparable demand driver replacing it, price action has leaned heavily negative.
Fundamentals Don’t Care About Quarterly Returns Below the price charts, the expansion is tangible. Tokenized real‑world asset markets, covered in BlockchainReporter’s weekly tokenization roundup, have cracked $32.89 billion, up half in a matter of months. That is real value moving on‑chain, not just speculative leverage.
Ethereum’s transaction surge and the DeFi TVL rebound don’t fit the story of a dying ecosystem. Developer activity remains concentrated on Ethereum and a handful of other chains. According to BlockchainReporter’s latest developer activity analysis, Ethereum continues to lead in active builders, which is rarely the footprint of an asset class in terminal decline.
What the Market Is Watching Next The biggest unknown is whether institutional capital flows can synchronize with on‑chain growth any time soon. ETF redemptions will need a clear macro or policy catalyst to reverse, and that catalyst is not yet obvious. Meanwhile, the stablecoin settlement data suggests that much of the activity is happening outside the ETF wrapper—by users for whom crypto is already payment, yield, and settlement infrastructure.
For traders, the next quarter will test whether the fundamentals‑price gap narrows through a price recovery or through a slowdown in on‑chain activity. Given the record prediction market volumes, at least one part of the market is still betting on event‑driven volatility rather than a quiet summer. The Bitwise figures don’t offer a forecast, but they do make one thing clear: the old bear‑market playbook, where everything sinks together, is being rewritten.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
According to recent data from Ripple Stablecoin Tracker, Ripple USD (RLUSD) supply on the Ethereum network has shrunk to about $692 million as Ripple continues to adjust the stablecoin's circulating supply through token burns.
At the start of July, RLUSD supply on Ethereum was above $727 million; now this figure has decreased, with millions in Ripple USD burned on the Ethereum network in the last seven days.
$115.4 million was burned on the Ethereum blockchain in the last seven days as seen on the Ripple Stablecoin Tracker website, while $49.3 million was minted in the same timeframe. On July 29 alone, $25.9 million was burned on the Ethereum blockchain while $6.2 million in RLUSD was minted.
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The last 30 days saw significant RLUSD redemptions on the Ethereum blockchain; a total of $369.4 million was burned while $167.6 million was minted.
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On the XRP Ledger, a total of $324.1 million was minted in the last 30 days and $217.6 million was burned. The total circulating supply of the RLUSD stablecoin is currently $1.556 billion.
RLUSD expands footprint on XRP LedgerWith RLUSD supply on Ethereum shrinking to $692 million, XRP Ledger remains ahead, hosting more RLUSD than Ethereum network. RLUSD's footprint on XRP has increased significantly, overtaking Ethereum supply for the first time in June.
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RLUSD in circulation on the XRP Ledger grew from roughly $20 million at the end of 2024 to about $800 million by late June 2026, which is a 40-fold rise, with the largest increase occurring in May and June 2026.
Ripple USD is currently one of the most-traded issued assets on XRP. Its share of all on-chain trading climbed from under 1% to about 12% in 2026, and the RLUSD/XRP pair alone has cleared roughly $900 million over the last six months.
This week, Ripple received authorization of its Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) license from Luxembourg's Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). The authorization confirms Ripple as fully MiCA-compliant, with its solutions underpinned by XRP and RLUSD made available to financial institutions, corporates and businesses across all 30 countries of the European Economic Area.
Ethereum has staged a notable recovery after defending its recent lows, with buyers gradually rebuilding momentum. While the higher time frames remain constrained beneath major resistance, the lower time frame structure has improved, and on-chain activity appears to be stabilizing following months of cooling network participation.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart On the daily chart, it is evident that ETH continues to trade within a broader bearish structure despite its recent rebound. The asset remains inside the descending channel that has guided the market lower for several months, while both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to slope downward above the current price, which reinforces the fact that the dominant trend is bearish.
Following the sharp decline toward the $1.5K demand zone, buyers stepped in aggressively, triggering a relief rally back toward the key resistance around $1.8K. This area is particularly important as it coincides with the descending channel’s upper trendline, making it a significant confluence resistance.
The RSI has recovered above the midline after previously entering oversold territory, suggesting bullish momentum has improved. However, the indicator has yet to reach overbought conditions, leaving room for additional upside if resistance is broken.
A decisive daily close above the $1.8K resistance could expose the next supply zone around $2.0K to $2.2K, where previous support has turned into resistance. Conversely, rejection from the current area would likely shift attention back toward the $1.5K support, with a loss of that level increasing the probability of another move toward much lower targets.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour frame presents a more constructive picture. Ethereum has established a clear higher low following its breakout from the recent consolidation range above $1.5k, which suggests that buyers have regained short-term control.
The highlighted higher low around the $1.75K region has so far been confirmed, indicating improving market structure. The price is now approaching the $1.8K to $1.85K resistance area, which has capped previous recovery attempts in recent weeks.
Momentum has also strengthened, with the RSI climbing back above the neutral 50 level after cooling from earlier highs. This suggests buying pressure remains intact, although resistance overhead could still trigger temporary consolidation.
As long as ETH continues holding above the $1.7K higher-low region, the short-term bullish structure remains valid. A successful breakout above $1.85K would strengthen the case for an extension toward the $2.K to $2.2K supply zone. Failure to maintain the higher low, however, would invalidate the recent recovery structure and shift focus back toward the $1.64K order block, and even the $1.5k critical rebound zone.
On-Chain Analysis Ethereum’s Active Addresses metric continues to trend lower after peaking earlier in the year. The 30-day EMA of active addresses has been steadily declining, indicating that network participation has cooled significantly compared to previous highs.
Despite this longer-term downtrend in activity, the pace of the decline appears to be moderating, suggesting the network may be entering a stabilization phase rather than experiencing continued deterioration. Historically, periods where active addresses stabilize after prolonged weakness have often coincided with price consolidation before the next major directional move.
At the same time, ETH has managed to recover from its recent lows while active address growth remains subdued. This divergence implies that the current rebound has been driven more by improving market sentiment and positioning than by a broad resurgence in on-chain demand.
For the recovery to evolve into a more sustainable bullish trend, a gradual increase in active addresses alongside continued price appreciation would provide stronger confirmation that capital and user activity are returning to the Ethereum network. Until then, the improving technical structure should be viewed alongside still-muted on-chain participation, suggesting cautious optimism rather than confirmation of a full trend reversal.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged $95.3 million on July 9, marking one of the sharper single-day outflow events in recent weeks. Ethereum ETFs were not spared either. They snapped a five-day streak of net inflows with $52.08 million in redemptions, according to data from WuBlockchain.
The numbers caught market participants off guard. Bitcoin ETFs had been absorbing capital in uneven pulses, but a near $100 million exit in a single session resets the conversation about institutional conviction. Ethereum products, meanwhile, had quietly built momentum over five consecutive sessions before the spigot reversed.
Where the Money Went July 9’s outflows did not arrive with a single catalyst. Traders pointed to a cocktail of macro caution and profit-taking after Bitcoin failed to reclaim a key technical level earlier in the week. The ETF complex often acts as a sentiment gauge, and days where spot prices stall or slip tend to correlate with redemptions. This time, the scale of the Bitcoin ETF drawdown suggests more than just routine rebalancing.
On-chain fundamentals paint a different picture. Developer activity across major blockchains remains robust, as a recent ranking of blockchains by developer activity shows. While ETF products track price, the underlying networks continue to ship code. That divergence rarely resolves quickly, but it reinforces the view that ETF flows are a narrow slice of crypto’s health.
Ethereum’s Streak Breaks Ethereum ETFs had strung together five days of net inflows before July 9, a welcome change after a tepid post-launch period for many of these vehicles. The $52 million outflow halts that progress. Whether the streak was driven by genuine conviction or tactical positioning remains an open question. Short-term traders may have used the products to play momentum, and once Ethereum’s price stalled near a local resistance, the exit door swung open.
The break in the streak also arrives amid a tense regulatory moment. Banking interests are mobilizing to water down or kill one of the most consequential crypto bills in U.S. history, and that kind of Washington uncertainty often feeds into ETF hesitancy. Institutions do not like binary outcomes, and a high-stakes Senate vote looming on the calendar can turn flow positive to flow negative fast.
What the Outflows Signal One day of heavy outflows does not a trend make, but it does reset the near-term liquidity picture. Market makers and authorized participants watch these numbers closely. A string of redemptions forces them to shed underlying Bitcoin and Ether, potentially adding selling pressure to spot markets. The July 9 figures were not catastrophic, but they were large enough to shift the narrative from steady accumulation to guarded distribution.
Broader institutional behavior complicates the story. While spot ETFs were shedding assets, the tokenization sector continues to attract capital. A weekly tokenization roundup showed real-world assets crossing $20 billion on-chain and major financial firms settling trades on blockchain rails. That suggests institutional money is not leaving crypto, it is simply choosing different wrappers. The ETF product is no longer the only game in town for regulated exposure.
What comes next depends on whether the outflows were a one-off reaction to stalled price action or the start of a broader risk-off posture. The next few sessions will matter. If Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs fail to reclaim inflows quickly, July could turn into a month where cautious positioning overrides the buy-the-dip mentality that has propped up these products for much of the year.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
Data from the Ripple Stablecoin Tracker shows that the supply of Ripple USD (RLUSD) on the Ethereum network has dropped to approximately $692 million. While Ripple continues to control the circulating supply of RLUSD through token burns, there has been a sharp decline in RLUSD’s share on Ethereum in recent weeks.
Continued contraction on EthereumAt the beginning of July, RLUSD supply on Ethereum was above $727 million. Current figures indicate a notable decrease from that level. Over the past seven days, $115.4 million in RLUSD was burned on the Ethereum blockchain, while $49.3 million in new tokens were issued during the same period.
On July 29 alone, the Ethereum network recorded a RLUSD burn of $25.9 million, paired with a new issuance of $6.2 million. Over the past 30 days, a total of $369.4 million in RLUSD was burned and $167.6 million was minted on Ethereum. This pattern shows that redemptions have outpaced new issuance on the Ethereum side.
In the past 30 days, $369.4 million in RLUSD was burned and $167.6 million was newly issued on the Ethereum network.
A summary of the periods reveals the ongoing contraction on Ethereum. In the past seven days, $115.4 million RLUSD was burned with $49.3 million issued. On July 29, RLUSD burns reached $25.9 million, while $6.2 million was minted. Across the most recent 30-day window, total RLUSD burned surpassed total issuance by more than $200 million, signaling a shrinking presence on Ethereum.
Currently, the total circulating supply of RLUSD stands at around $1.56 billion. On the XRP Ledger, the past 30 days saw $324.1 million in RLUSD minted and $217.6 million burned. This allowed the XRP Ledger to consistently maintain a higher RLUSD supply compared to the Ethereum network.
RLUSD’s presence on the XRP Ledger surpassed Ethereum for the first time in June. While RLUSD’s circulating amount was close to $20 million at the end of 2024, by late June 2026 it surged to nearly $800 million. The most significant growth period was recorded in May and June 2026.
Ripple, the US-based technology company known for developing payment infrastructure and digital asset solutions, issues RLUSD as its US dollar-backed stablecoin, which operates on both Ethereum and XRP Ledger.
Soaring transaction volumes and European milestoneRLUSD has rapidly become one of the most actively traded tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger. Its share of overall on-chain transaction volume climbed from under 1% in 2026 to almost 12%. Specifically, the RLUSD/XRP trading pair saw approximately $900 million in transactions over the last six months.
The RLUSD/XRP pair reached nearly $900 million in trading volume over the past six months.
This week, Ripple received authorization as a crypto asset service provider from Luxembourg’s financial regulator, the CSSF. The CSSF is the official entity overseeing Luxembourg’s financial industry. With this approval, Ripple has demonstrated compliance with MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) and can now offer XRP and RLUSD-powered solutions to financial institutions and corporations across all 30 countries of the European Economic Area.
Glossary: MiCA is the EU’s legislative package for regulating crypto asset markets. CASP refers to the license required to operate as a crypto asset service provider under this framework.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Ethereum Foundation AI Agent Research Shows Where Smart Contracts May Be Heading Next is the kind of crypto story that looks simple at headline level but becomes more useful once you place it inside the wider market backdrop. The important point is not that AI agents will suddenly take over Ethereum tomorrow; it is that developers are already designing the verification layers they would need.
The reason it deserves attention today is not that one announcement or filing magically changes the whole market. It is that the update adds another data point to a sector still trying to work out where capital, users, and regulation are actually moving.
For more details, visit the official Blog platform.
TL;DR Ethereum Foundation research explored architecture for AI agents on mainnet.The work connects autonomous agent design with smart contracts and verification systems.It shows Ethereum researchers are thinking beyond simple transaction execution. Why Ethereum Research Still Matters AI agents need systems that can prove decisions, permissions, and outcomes.
Zero-knowledge proofs and smart-contract controls may help make autonomous actions more auditable.
The hard part with Ethereum research is that the practical payoff often arrives long after the first proposal. That does not make the work less important. It means the market has to separate near-term price noise from the slow process of making the protocol easier to use and harder to break.
The Market Impact Will Take Time Ethereum’s research culture keeps pushing into these edges even before the market knows how to price them.
For readers, the useful lens is whether the idea changes the direction of travel. Ethereum is still trying to improve settlement, verification, and scalability at the base layer, even while layer-2 networks take on more everyday activity.
For NewsBTC readers, the practical takeaway is to avoid treating this as an isolated headline. The stronger read is to connect it with the current market environment: liquidity is still selective, regulatory pressure has not disappeared, and the projects that keep shipping useful updates are the ones most likely to hold attention when the cycle gets noisy.
That does not mean the story should be stretched beyond what the source supports. The cleaner approach is to keep the facts tight, explain the mechanism, and show readers why it may matter if follow-up data confirms the same direction over the next few sessions.
In other words, this is a development to watch rather than a guaranteed turning point. Crypto moves quickly, but the useful signals are usually the ones that still make sense after the first reaction fades.
The important thing for readers is context. A single development rarely defines the market on its own, but a series of source-backed updates can show where momentum is building. That is why this article keeps the focus on the specific mechanism in play, the source behind it, and the reason traders or builders may care today.
This article is based on information from blog.ethereum.org.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
The Ethereum Foundation‘s Protocol Security team has shared insights from experiments using coordinated AI agents to scan critical components of the Ethereum ecosystem. These efforts demonstrate that AI tools can successfully identify genuine vulnerabilities in protocol-level code, including systems software, cryptographic implementations, and smart contracts essential to network operations.
In one notable case, the agents uncovered a remotely triggerable panic in libp2p’s gossipsub implementation—a fundamental element of the peer-to-peer networking layer supporting Ethereum consensus clients.
This issue has since been publicly disclosed and resolved as CVE-2026-34219, with appropriate credit given to the discovering team.
However, the Ethereum Foundation stresses that the discovery of bugs represents only a small portion of the overall process.
The true challenge lies in triage: distinguishing legitimate vulnerabilities from the numerous false positives that AI systems generate.
Agents often produce reports that appear convincing at first glance, complete with detailed write-ups, proposed severity levels, and even proof-of-concept code.
Yet many of these turn out to be non-issues upon closer inspection, such as crashes limited to debug builds, scenarios unreachable by actual attackers, or proofs that fail to address the intended properties.
To manage this effectively, the team employs a structured, multi-agent workflow inspired by approaches from organizations like Anthropic and Cloudflare.
Agents operate in parallel with specialized roles—reconnaissance to identify testable hypotheses, hunting to develop reproducers, gap-filling to track coverage and avoid redundancy, and independent validation to assess candidates.
Findings must meet strict criteria: a clearly defined target and invariant, a specific breaking mechanism, observable proof of failure, and a self-contained reproducer that works reliably against production code.
This methodology treats agents as powerful search tools akin to advanced fuzzers, rather than infallible oracles.
Every promising candidate undergoes rigorous human-reviewed checks for reachability, attacker cost versus impact, and duplication against known issues.
Acceptance rates vary depending on the maturity and prior auditing of the target codebase, providing valuable signals about code robustness even when few issues are confirmed.
The Foundation notes that AI excels at combining specifications with code analysis, drafting initial reproducers, and suggesting root causes. However, it can falter on complex, multi-step sequences of valid operations or overestimate severity.
Human judgment remains essential for final decisions on validity, duplicates, and disclosure.
Ultimately, AI has shifted rather than eliminated the security research bottleneck.
What was once hypothesis generation and manual exploration now centers on scalable evaluation, reproducible testing, and careful validation at volume.
This evolution allows broader coverage than traditional methods alone while reinforcing the irreplaceable role of expert oversight.
As tools advance rapidly, maintaining disciplined practices around provenance, determinism, and minimal scripting will be key to trustworthy outcomes. The Ethereum Foundation views this as a worthwhile trade-off, enabling deeper protocol scrutiny as long as triage and human accountability stay at the forefront.
Ethereum likes to bill itself as the world’s decentralized computer. But according to research from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF), nearly a third of that computer lives in one country, and a lot of it runs on Amazon’s servers.
The CCAF found that 31% of global Ethereum beacon node activity is based in the United States, with infrastructure heavily clustered on three cloud providers: Amazon Web Services (AWS), Hetzner, and OVH.
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The cloud concentration problem Ethereum currently boasts more than 880,000 validators, a number that has grown substantially since the network’s transition to proof-of-stake during the Merge in September 2022. In earlier analyses from 2022, AWS alone was found to host over 50% of Ethereum nodes. The reliance on three major cloud providers, AWS, Hetzner, and OVH, means that over two-thirds of total node share has at times been concentrated among just those platforms.
Historical data from the CCAF makes the trend clearer. As recently as November 2023, the US accounted for 37.2% of Ethereum nodes. Europe hosted 43.3%, and North America broadly represented 40.5%. The current 31% figure for US-based beacon node activity suggests some geographic redistribution has occurred.
Why jurisdiction matters more than you think The CCAF dashboard explicitly emphasizes the need for greater geographic distribution to improve network security and resilience. Cloud providers experience outages, and when a large portion of Ethereum’s validator set depends on the same underlying infrastructure, a routine cloud outage becomes a potential network stability event.
What this means for investors The network’s security model assumes a distributed validator set. The growth to over 880,000 validators post-Merge reflects genuine adoption of the staking model, but the concentration creates tail risks. Price stability could be affected if a major provider disruption or regulatory action suddenly took a significant percentage of validators offline.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
XRP price climbed 1.27% to $1.10 as the wider cryptocurrency market recorded renewed gains during active Friday trading. Bitcoin price rose 1.48% to $64,002, while Ethereum advanced 3.03% to $1,790.
The overall crypto market rose by 1.54% to reach 2.19 trillion. The focus now shifts to the CLARITY Act in July.
CLARITY Act Moves Closer to Senate Action H.R. 3633 was passed by the House on July 17, 2025 and received 294 votes in support. Another 134 representatives opposed the measure.
The bill intends to have a national framework on the trading, supervision, and protection of digital assets. It also divides regulatory duties between the SEC and CFTC.
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the proposal on May 14, 2026, through a 15-9 vote. That vote brought the bill further towards Senate action.
In the case of XRP, increased regulation might lessen ambiguity regarding the classification of tokens and trading. An increased legal certainty can lead to institutional participation also.
July Timeline Could Drive XRP Price Momentum The Senate comes out of recess on July 13, which is another procedural action opportunity. However, lawmakers still face disagreements over important provisions.
Discussions involve ethics restrictions, stablecoin rewards, federal preemption, and anti-money-laundering requirements. Such problems may postpone a final vote or oblige changes.
A procedural vote may occur between July 13 and July 17. House-Senate reconciliation can occur during July 20-24.
In case both chambers vote in favour of the same text, the bill might end up in the hands of President Donald Trump before August. The loss of that window would delay till September.
🚨 #CLARITY Act Faces Fresh Scrutiny
Senate Democrats are calling for hearings into President #Trump’s crypto holdings, arguing his reported #crypto earnings raise conflict-of-interest concerns ahead of the expected release of the #CLARITYAct draft.
The ethics provision remains… pic.twitter.com/CLpnbnZcwG
— CoinGape (@CoinGapeMedia) July 10, 2026
A successful Senate push may strengthen XRP confidence this month. Nevertheless, the direction of prices will be determined by the market volume, stability of Bitcoin, and the resistance in the vicinity. Favourable development would appeal to purchasers of regulatory confidence.
XRP Price Outlook: Can Bulls Break Above $2 This Month? The price of XRP was trading close to $1.1013 on Friday after receiving support at about $1.07. The four-hour chart depicts that buyers are back but the momentum is still weak below the resistance level of $1.12.
The relative strength index stood at 47.48, which is slightly below the 50 mark of neutrality.
The MACD histogram became positive at 0.0018, indicating that bearish pressure might be declining. The MACD line has also crossed the signal line, indicating a potential recovery effort.
Tradingview An established break over $1.12 may pave the way to the next resistance at $1.15. Further purchases above $1.15 will put the $1.20 level into reach.
Conversely, the downside is that $1.07 is the most important level that safeguards XRP against a further fall. The next target might be seen at $1.05, with a four-hour low below that support. Continued selling may then pull XRP price toward the psychological $1.00 level.
XRP ETF Assets Near $1 Billion as Cumulative Inflows Hit $1.48 Billion According to SoSoValue data, XRP exchange-traded products showed no net inflows in a single day on July 9. Cumulative inflows were also at $1.48 billion with total net assets standing at $989.46 million. Bitwise dominated the market as the market leader with net assets of $308.15 million.
Source: Sosovalue data Canary trailed by $252.97 million, followed by Franklin at $249.54 million. The aggregate trading value was $6.87 million, indicating a low turnover in XRP products.
@BlackRock moved 8,700 $ETH worth approximately $15.81 million from wallets linked to its spot Ethereum ETF to Coinbase Prime on July 10, according to on-chain data flagged by Onchain Lens. The transfer drew attention because it coincided with a notable reversal in ETF fund flows.
ETHA Posts Outflows as Five-Day Streak Ends According to data from SoSoValue, BlackRock's ETHA ETF saw outflows of approximately $12.67 million on July 9, coinciding with the on-chain movement from its ETF-related wallets to Coinbase Prime.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $52.2 million on July 9, bringing an end to a five-day consecutive inflow streak, according to data from Farside Investors. Fidelity's FETH led the day's declines with $34 million in net outflows, while BlackRock's ETHA contributed $12.7 million to the total.
The timing of the on-chain transfer adds context to the outflow figures. When an ETF records net redemptions, the fund manager typically needs to liquidate a portion of the underlying asset. Moving ETH to a custodial exchange such as Coinbase Prime is consistent with that process, though BlackRock has not publicly commented on the specific transaction.
Broader ETF Context The July 9 reversal follows a brief period of recovery for Ethereum ETF products. Spot Ethereum ETFs had attracted $70.48 million in net inflows on July 8, extending a positive streak to five consecutive trading days. The abrupt swing to outflows the following day underlines how sensitive institutional flows remain to short-term market conditions.
The volatility in daily flows is consistent with the early stages of ETF adoption, where investor positioning remains reactive to broader market conditions and macroeconomic signals.
Despite the single-day setback, the broader narrative of institutional interest in Ethereum remains intact, with ETHA continuing to attract more capital over time than most competing spot ETH products.
Sources:
U.Today: BlackRock Moves 8,700 Ethereum to Coinbase: Why Traders Are Watching
BitcoinWorld: Spot Ethereum ETFs Snap Five-Day Inflow Streak With $52.2 Million in Daily Outflows
Blockonomi: Bitcoin ETFs Log $84.9M in Outflows as Ethereum Funds Extend Inflow Streak
Stephen Suttmeier, former Head of Technical Strategy at Bank of America, believes Ethereum could be forming a “tactical bottom.”
In his recent analysis report, Suttmeier said that if the price stays above $1690-$1700, it would support his thesis of the altcoin forming a tactical low above its June lows. Another confirmation for this bottoming pattern would be a reclaim of $1800.
His projection was based on technical analysis, particularly using moving averages (MA) to gauge short- and long-term momentum shifts. As of press time, the Ethereum [ETH] price has briefly stalled below the 50-day MA (DMA).
Should the 50DMA be decisively reclaimed as support (ETH price above $1800), the next upside target would be the 200-day MA(blue line) at $2.2K, Suttmeier added. That would imply a 25% upside potential if the $2.1K obstacle is cleared.
Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView In fact, even Bitmine Immersion Technologies chairman and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee shared Suttmeier’s analysis, implying that he supported his projection.
Well, if there’s no bearish catalyst in the short term, the ETH daily chart leaned more toward a potential bullish reversal. It had formed a double bottom reversal pattern after the price slipped below $1600 twice in the past few weeks.
But some on-chain metrics were not as bullish on ETH as price charts suggested.
Ethereum’s exchange sell pressure is still high CryptoQuant reported a 6% surge in exchange selling pressure in the past few days as ETH attempted a rebound. Over 220K Ethereum [ETH] hit exchanges, slowing the relief rally near $1800.
Source: CryptoQuant And the whales were notably reducing exposure during the relief rally. As such, the brief stalling below $1800 did not come as a surprise. As of writing, the whale sell-off had not tapered off.
In fact, the exchange selling pressure has been steadily rising since March. Hence, if the pressure persists, the ‘tactical bottom’ outlook could be invalidated.
Can ETF flows and macro risks derail ETH? Apart from the whale pressure, the U.S. Spot ETF demand, which significantly boosted the early July relief recovery, has turned negative.
After seeing net inflows for five straight days, the trend broke on Thursday after the products posted a $52M net outflow. The risk-off move was triggered by renewed Iran-U.S escalations and bond market jitters.
Source: SoSo Value Overall, ETH was on the verge of flipping its short-term momentum to bullish if it decisively stays above $1800. A 25% upside potential could be feasible if such a scenario plays out. But macro and geopolitical pressures remained at large and could affect bulls.
Final Summary ETH could hit $2100 and offer a 25% potential gain if $1800 is decisively reclaimed. Macro and geopolitical pressure could invalidate the bullish outlook, especially if the U.S-Iran escalations deepen
Bitmine Immersion Technologies just scooped up another 20,500 ETH for approximately $35.92 million, pushing its total Ethereum stash to around 5.7 million tokens. That’s roughly 4.8% of Ethereum’s entire circulating supply, held by a single publicly traded company.
The over-the-counter transaction, executed with Galaxy Digital on or around July 10, puts Bitmine within striking distance of its stated goal: owning 5% of all ETH in existence. The company calls this strategy the “Alchemy of 5%.”
From mining rigs to Ethereum vaults A year ago, this was a Bitcoin mining operation. By mid-2025, the company had pivoted entirely, repositioning itself as the largest public Ethereum treasury vehicle on the market.
Under CEO Tom Lee’s direction, the NYSE American-listed company (ticker: BMNR) has been systematically buying ETH on a weekly basis throughout 2026, with a particular fondness for purchasing during price dips.
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This latest buy is actually modest by Bitmine’s recent standards. Previous weeks have seen the company snap up anywhere from tens of thousands to over 100,000 ETH in single transactions. A $36 million purchase barely moves the needle when your treasury is valued near $10 billion.
The financial architecture behind the accumulation Bitmine hasn’t been funding this buying spree with pocket change. The company launched preferred shares (BMNP) in mid-June 2026, offering investors a 9.5% annual dividend paid on a weekly basis.
Beyond pure accumulation, Bitmine also operates MAVAN, an institutional ETH staking platform. This means the company isn’t just sitting on its Ethereum — it’s putting a portion to work, earning staking rewards that provide additional yield on top of any price appreciation. The firm maintains BTC and cash reserves as well.
Tom Lee has described the current market environment as the early stages of a “crypto spring,” with his conviction resting on what he sees as improving fundamentals within the Ethereum network itself.
What this means for investors Every ETH that Bitmine buys and holds is one less token available on the open market. At 5.7 million ETH and growing, that’s a meaningful amount of supply being locked away.
Bitmine’s stock has effectively become a leveraged bet on Ethereum’s price. Investors who can’t or won’t hold ETH directly now have a regulated equity instrument that tracks Ethereum exposure, complete with dividend payments from the preferred shares.
A single company holding 4.8% of any asset’s supply creates concentration risk that cuts both ways. If Bitmine ever needs to liquidate — whether due to financial stress, regulatory pressure, or a strategic pivot — the selling pressure on a $10 billion treasury could be severe.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Cover image via depositphotos.com Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Dogecoin may be displaying one of its strongest sentiment signals in recent weeks, despite months of ongoing weakness. Derivatives traders seem to be positioning for a recovery, with long positions significantly outnumbering short positions across major exchanges, even though the meme coin is still stuck in a larger downtrend on the price chart. Current market data indicates that Dogecoin's long-to-short ratio is clearly favoring bulls.
Exchange flow is complimentary to DogecoinOKX traders are even more aggressive, keeping a ratio close to 3.5-to-1, whereas Binance accounts show about 2.5 longs for every short position. There are still over three bullish positions for every bearish one among Binance's top traders.
DOGE/USDT Chart by TradingViewWhen considered collectively, the data indicates that both retail and professional traders are favoring a positive outcome for DOGE, resulting in what is essentially a market with four bulls for every bear. The chart itself tells a story of caution. The 200-day moving average is still much higher than the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, and DOGE is still trading below these major moving averages.
HOT Stories
Selling pressure dwindlesThis indicates that buyers have not yet benefited from the long-term trend. But price movement in the vicinity of $0.07 has grown more significant. After a protracted sell-off, Dogecoin has recently recovered from local lows and begun to stabilize. Additionally, the RSI has begun to recover from oversold conditions, suggesting that selling pressure may be lessening.
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The discrepancy between sentiment and price is what makes the current setup intriguing. Despite the lack of technical confirmation, traders are positioning for gains. Such circumstances may occasionally precede significant breakouts if buyers are able to push the price above key resistance zones around $0.08 and later $0.09.
Crowded bullish positions also increase risk. Heavily leveraged long positions may be liquidated if DOGE is unable to maintain support and starts to decline, which would accelerate downside volatility.
Dogecoin is revisiting a historical accumulation zone, with the current setup mirroring earlier cycle bottoms that have previously preceded major rallies.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is once again trading in a price region that historically aligns with key accumulation areas. Data from the monthly chart shows that the current setup closely resembles previous market cycles where prolonged consolidation eventually gave way to massive upside moves.
Familiar Dogecoin Setup The 1-month chart shows that DOGE has repeatedly found support after extended corrections before starting strong rallies. In each previous cycle, the asset’s price offers the first entry point, then stabilizes at a long-term support trendline. Dogecoin then provides the last entry point before it starts a massive expansion phase.
For context, DOGE gave the first entry when it bottomed at $0.000086 in May 2015. After that, the coin formed a support around $0.000198 in April 2016 and consolidated above it until February 2017. What followed was a 1,823% rise to $0.0040 in May 2017.
Dogecoin 1M Chart Analysis The same thing happened in the next cycle. Dogecoin gave its first sniper entry at the low of $0.00065 in September 2017. Subsequently, it found support around $0.0018 in February 2019 and consolidated around it until March 2020.
Between April 2020 and May 2021, DOGE rallied an impressive 41,011%, reaching its current all-time high of $0.74.
Current DOGE Price Level Aligns with Previous Cycle Bottoms The current market structure appears to be following a similar path. Dogecoin gave its first perfect entry at $0.056 in October 2023. The meme coin also formed a long-term support at $0.0805 in August 2024 and, in June, retested it.
While the pullback has taken it slightly below the horizontal support region, the structure remains intact. This is because it still trends above a broader ascending support line that has guided its price since October 2023.
Meanwhile, the current price level presents the last entry point to buy DOGE at a discount, according to history. What has followed this period is a strong price reversal and the start of an impulsive move to unprecedented price levels.
Dogecoin Target and Key Uptrend Requirement If history repeats, Dogecoin could be nearing its bottom here. Since each rally from here has seen it surpass the previous high, the first target could be around $0.80, representing a 981% increase from the current price of $0.074.
In an ultra-bullish scenario, DOGE could finally break the $1 barrier and even target $2. This culminates in a 1,251% to 2,602% growth from here.
Nonetheless, while the historical comparison is encouraging for bulls, confirmation is still necessary. Dogecoin needs to maintain support around the current accumulation area and show signs of recovery to confirm this pattern.
If buyers defend this region around $0.066 successfully, the setup could produce massive gains like the previous cycles. However, a decisive move below the support zone would invalidate the pattern and force the token downwards.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
Dogecoin Traders Watch $0.13 as DOGE Reclaims A Key Technical Level is the kind of crypto story that looks simple at headline level but becomes more useful once you place it inside the wider market backdrop. Dogecoin is at its most interesting when technical traders and retail attention line up at the same time.
The reason it deserves attention today is not that one announcement or filing magically changes the whole market. It is that the update adds another data point to a sector still trying to work out where capital, users, and regulation are actually moving.
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TL;DR A Dogecoin chart analyst flagged a move back above a key moving average.DOGE bulls are now watching whether the price can push toward the $0.13 zone.The setup is technical, not guaranteed, and depends on broader market follow-through. https://x.com/doge_trader/status/2075256793470906570
What The Chart Is Really Saying The chart-led setup focuses on DOGE reclaiming a moving average that traders often use as a short-term trend marker.
The $0.13 region is being watched as the next meaningful resistance zone.
Chart-led stories need a lighter touch. An analyst post can frame a setup, but it should not be treated as confirmation that a move has to happen. The value is in identifying the level traders are watching and explaining why it matters.
Why Caution Still Matters Because the source is chart-led, the article should stay analytical and avoid treating the setup as a prediction.
That is especially true with memecoins, where technical structure can change quickly if broader risk appetite fades or retail attention moves somewhere else.
For NewsBTC readers, the practical takeaway is to avoid treating this as an isolated headline. The stronger read is to connect it with the current market environment: liquidity is still selective, regulatory pressure has not disappeared, and the projects that keep shipping useful updates are the ones most likely to hold attention when the cycle gets noisy.
That does not mean the story should be stretched beyond what the source supports. The cleaner approach is to keep the facts tight, explain the mechanism, and show readers why it may matter if follow-up data confirms the same direction over the next few sessions.
In other words, this is a development to watch rather than a guaranteed turning point. Crypto moves quickly, but the useful signals are usually the ones that still make sense after the first reaction fades.
The important thing for readers is context. A single development rarely defines the market on its own, but a series of source-backed updates can show where momentum is building. That is why this article keeps the focus on the specific mechanism in play, the source behind it, and the reason traders or builders may care today.
This article is based on information from x.com.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
An exploit drained roughly 16 million ADA, about $2.4 million, from 374 Cardano wallets in late June. What happened next is the interesting part: EMURGO, one of Cardano’s founding entities, announced a recovery path to return the assets within two weeks, while an independent forensic team including Mt. Gox veterans published competing findings. Crypto has spent fifteen years insisting stolen funds are gone forever. Cardano is running a live experiment in whether that has to be true, and every chain is watching the precedent.
Summary
A Cardano linked exploit drained about 16 million ADA from 374 wallets, with EMURGO outlining a two week plan to return affected users’ funds. Independent investigators challenged parts of the official account, putting competing forensic findings at the centre of how victims could qualify for restitution. The recovery effort is testing whether a blockchain ecosystem can compensate theft victims without reversing the ledger or compromising decentralization principles. Between June 21 and 23, an exploit connected to a protocol called SecondFi drained approximately 16 million ADA, worth about $2.4 million, from 374 addresses on Cardano. As crypto thefts go, it barely registers: the industry loses that much most weeks, and 2026’s running total makes $2.4 million a rounding error. The theft is not the story.
The story is the response. Within days, EMURGO, the commercial arm among Cardano’s founding entities, announced it had identified a recovery path for affected users and would begin returning assets within roughly two weeks, one week to build the recovery mechanism and one to test it. Simultaneously, an independent forensic team, Tibane Labs, whose personnel include investigators from the Mt. Gox case, crypto’s original catastrophic theft, published a competing analysis of what actually happened, disputing elements of the official account. And the affected community, 374 wallets whose owners did nothing wrong beyond using a protocol, became the test population for one of the most consequential questions in the industry: whether a blockchain ecosystem can make theft victims whole without breaking the properties that make it a blockchain.
That question has a fifteen-year history of being answered no, at enormous cost, and a handful of famous exceptions that each bent the rules in a different way. Ethereum rolled back its ledger once, in 2016, and the decision split the chain permanently. Exchanges have reimbursed hacks from their own treasuries. Protocols have negotiated with attackers, paying bounties for returns. But a founding entity engineering restitution for users of a third-party protocol, on a chain whose ledger will not be rolled back, through a mechanism built and tested in two weeks, is a new entry in the genre, and its outcome, success, failure, or messy middle, will be cited in every post-exploit governance fight for years. This piece covers the exploit as best the competing forensics allow, the anatomy of the recovery mechanism and the hard constraints it must respect, the restitution genre’s history and where this attempt sits in it, the moral-hazard and precedent questions that make recovery controversial even when it works, and what the two-week experiment will actually prove.
What happened, as far as the forensics agree The reconstruction begins with an unusual feature: there are two of them. The official account, from EMURGO and ecosystem responders, describes an exploit connected to SecondFi that extracted funds from user wallets across a three-day window, with 374 affected addresses and roughly 16 million ADA taken. The independent account, from Tibane Labs, a forensic team whose resume includes the Mt. Gox investigation, examines the same on-chain evidence and disputes elements of the official narrative, a disagreement whose specifics matter less, for this piece’s purposes, than its existence: three weeks after the event, the ecosystem’s official and independent investigators have not converged on a single story of what occurred.
That divergence is itself a finding about the state of crypto incident response.
On-chain data is perfectly preserved and public, which is why blockchain forensics can achieve certainties conventional financial investigation cannot; but the interpretation layer, which contract behavior was intended, which approvals were informed, where the boundary between exploit and design flaw sits, remains contested terrain where reputations, liability, and recovery eligibility all hang on the framing. The pattern is familiar from the anatomy of every major protocol disaster: the chain records what happened with perfect fidelity and no opinion, and the fight is always over what it meant. For the 374 wallet owners, the practical consequence is concrete: the recovery mechanism’s design, and who qualifies for it, depends on which reconstruction prevails, which is why competing forensics are not academic but constitutive of the restitution itself.
The scale deserves honest framing too. Sixteen million ADA is about 0.04% of circulating supply; $2.4 million is small enough that EMURGO could plausibly reimburse it from corporate resources without any mechanism at all. The choice to build a recovery process instead, engineered, tested, documented, signals that the exercise is understood by its architects as infrastructure, a template being built at low stakes for use at higher ones, which is exactly why it merits the scrutiny this piece gives it.
The mechanism: what recovery can and cannot mean Every recovery attempt on a public blockchain operates inside the same iron constraint: the ledger does not go backward. Cardano’s history will not be rewritten; the stolen ADA sits wherever the attacker moved it, validly, as far as the protocol is concerned. Whatever EMURGO’s two-week build produces, it is not an undo button, and enumerating what it can be maps the entire design space of crypto restitution.
The first family is interception: if stolen funds sit on exchanges or touch regulated venues, they can be frozen and clawed back through compliance channels, the path that has recovered the largest sums industry-wide and the reason attackers launder through mixers and cross-chain routes, the bridge-hopping playbook every major theft now follows. Its reach ends where the attacker’s operational security begins. The second is negotiation: bounty offers converting attackers into white hats retroactively, effective embarrassingly often, and dependent entirely on the attacker’s incentives.
The third is replacement: making victims whole from some treasury, corporate funds, protocol reserves, an ecosystem pool, without touching the stolen assets at all, which is restitution in the economic sense and abandons recovery in the literal one. The fourth, rarest and most Cardano-specific in this instance, is mechanism-level remediation: where the exploited system itself, a protocol’s contracts, a wallet standard, retains any authority over the affected assets or their derivatives, that authority can sometimes be repurposed to restore balances, the approach that requires exactly the one-week-build-one-week-test cadence EMURGO described.
The announced timeline suggests a combination weighted toward the third and fourth families, and the details, at this writing, remain unpublished, which is appropriate caution and also part of the test: restitution mechanisms revealed before deployment invite gaming by exactly the adversaries they respond to. What can be evaluated in advance is the constraint set any design must satisfy. It must distinguish victims from opportunists, on-chain, against forensics that are themselves disputed. It must not create authority that persists after the emergency, because a standing power to reassign user balances is a bigger vulnerability than any exploit. It must not require the base protocol to special-case the event, the line Cardano’s own decentralization principles, governed by DReps precisely to prevent unilateral intervention, will not permit crossing. And it must complete fast, because every week of delay compounds the harm and shrinks the interceptable share. Two weeks, against those constraints, is aggressive, and the aggressiveness is the announcement’s real content: EMURGO believes the mechanism exists and is discoverable on a schedule.
The victims’ fortnight: what waiting inside a recovery is like The 374 addresses deserve a section of their own, because restitution debates chronically abstract the people they are about, and this population is unusually legible. The affected wallets skew small: the $2.4 million total across 374 addresses averages under $6,500 per victim, savings-scale money for the retail holders who dominate Cardano’s famously loyal base, not fund-scale positions with legal departments and insurance. Their fortnight is a specific experience the industry has never bothered to design for: funds visibly gone, an official promise of return on a stated schedule, competing expert accounts of what even happened, and no action available except watching announcements, a limbo in which every day of official silence gets read as bad news and every community rumor moves through the victim population at chat speed.
Two features of this experience matter beyond sympathy. The first is that victim behavior during recovery windows is itself an attack surface: fake recovery portals, phishing campaigns impersonating the restitution process, and advance-fee scams targeting exactly this population appear within days of every publicized exploit, harvesting victims a second time, and the quality of official communication, clear channels, signed announcements, explicit warnings that no one will DM them, is as much a part of the mechanism’s success as its code. The second is that the fortnight sets the template for what users can expect from the ecosystem, and expectations are load-bearing: an institution-courting chain whose retail base learns that infrastructure failures get handled competently retains those users through the next incident, while a botched communication cycle converts a $2.4 million exploit into a permanent trust discount far more expensive than the theft. The recovery’s architects are, whether they framed it this way or not, running crypto’s first serious customer-service operation for a decentralized loss event, and the industry’s notes on it will be as valuable as the mechanism itself.
The genre: how crypto has answered theft before The SecondFi experiment enters a genre with a defined canon, and its position in that canon is what gives a $2.4 million incident industry-wide stakes.
The founding text is Ethereum’s 2016 DAO intervention: facing the theft of a double-digit share of all ETH, the community altered the ledger to reverse it, and the decision’s price was permanent schism, the unaltered chain persisting as Ethereum Classic and the precedent haunting every subsequent governance debate. The lesson the industry took was that base-layer intervention works exactly once, at existential scale, and costs a chain’s neutrality forever; no major network has repeated it, through losses orders of magnitude larger. The second tradition is the exchange model: centralized custodians from the Mt. Gox estate through the modern majors have run reimbursements, creditor processes, and insurance funds, restitution as a corporate liability question, effective where custody was centralized and irrelevant where it was not. The third is the protocol-treasury model: DeFi projects reimbursing exploits from token treasuries or negotiated bounties, case by case, with outcomes ranging from full restoration to governance-vote refusals that left victims holding the loss, a genre in which the liquidation-era bad-debt socializations supplied some of the bitterest chapters.
What the canon lacks, and what SecondFi supplies, is the founding-entity model on a decentralization-first chain: an ecosystem steward, not the thief’s counterparty, not the ledger’s operator, engineering restitution for a third-party protocol’s users without touching the base layer. Cardano is, in one sense, the natural venue for the attempt, its culture prizes formal process and its governance apparatus is unusually explicit, and in another sense the hardest one, because the same culture treats ledger neutrality as close to sacred, and the community debate around the recovery has featured exactly the voices, on exactly the lines, the DAO fight canonized: make victims whole versus code is law, with a decade of intervening history sharpening both sides.
The timing layer: why this experiment, this month The recovery’s context supplies half its meaning, because the experiment is running inside the most delicate month Cardano has had in years, and every audience the mechanism performs for is watching for its own reasons.
The institutional audience arrived the same week: Clearstream, Deutsche Borse’s post-trade arm with trillions in custody, added ADA to its regulated custody services on July 7, the most significant institutional on-ramp in the asset’s history, landing days into the recovery window. Institutions selecting crypto assets audit precisely the thing SecondFi tests, how an ecosystem behaves when its infrastructure fails, and the recovery’s execution is, functionally, a live due-diligence exhibit for every custody and ETF conversation the ecosystem hopes to have. The market audience is watching a fragile turn: ADA rebounded roughly 30% from multi-year lows in the same fortnight, whale wallets accumulated through the crash while on-chain usage thinned, and the recovery sits inside a sentiment window where a competence story compounds the bounce and an incompetence story validates the lows. And the governance audience is internal: Cardano’s DRep apparatus and its constitutional culture have spent two years building the machinery of collective decision-making, the Van Rossem fork is moving through exactly that machinery this month, and a founding entity executing an emergency restitution adjacent to, but not through, the formal governance process is itself a constitutional data point, read closely by everyone who cares where the ecosystem’s real authority lives.
The timing also explains the two-week aggression. A recovery that completes before the news cycle moves on is an asset; one that drags into autumn is a liability regardless of outcome, because unresolved incidents metastasize in exactly the audiences above. The schedule is the strategy, and its keeping or slipping is the first verdict the experiment will render.
Moral hazard, precedent, and the case against success The strongest objections to the recovery deserve their full weight, because they are not callousness; they are the accumulated lessons of the genre.
The moral-hazard argument runs: every successful restitution teaches users that losses get reversed, which erodes the diligence that self-custody requires, subsidizes risk-taking on unaudited protocols, and converts founding entities into implicit insurers of an ecosystem they cannot actually underwrite, a liability that compounds until an exploit arrives at a scale no one can cover, whereupon the implicit promise defaults at the worst moment. The precedent argument runs deeper: a proven capability to restore balances is a proven capability to reassign them, and every government, litigant, and pressure group learns from the proof; the neutrality that makes public chains valuable is precisely the credible inability to do favors, and each benevolent exception prices that credibility down. And the selection argument is the practical edge of both: 374 wallets got a recovery mechanism because their loss was legible, bounded, and adjacent to a founding entity’s reputation, while the ecosystem’s countless smaller victims, of rug pulls, drainers, and their own mistakes, get nothing, which converts restitution from a principle into a lottery whose winners are chosen by newsworthiness.
The answers, from the recovery’s defenders, are also serious. Users harmed by infrastructure failures they could not have evaluated are not moral-hazard cases but consumer-protection ones, and an industry courting mainstream adoption cannot tell mainstream users that their diligence should have included auditing smart contracts. Precedent cuts both ways: an ecosystem that visibly cares for its users compounds trust, the asset every chain claims to optimize, and the intervention line, no base-layer changes, no persistent authority, can be held publicly and verifiably. The honest synthesis is that both sides are describing real gradients, and the experiment’s value is precisely that it will convert the argument into evidence: a recovery that completes cleanly, inside its constraints, without scope creep, is a data point the make-whole side has never had on a decentralization-first chain, and a recovery that fails, stalls, or requires quiet rule-bending is the strongest code-is-law exhibit since the DAO.
The forensics fight: why the second opinion matters The Tibane Labs dimension deserves fuller treatment before the conclusion, because independent forensics entering a live recovery is nearly as novel as the recovery itself, and its implications outlast this incident.
Crypto incident analysis has historically been a monopoly of the responding party: the exploited protocol, the affected foundation, or the security firm they retain writes the post-mortem, and the community consumes it as fact, with no institution playing the adversarial-review role that accident investigation runs on in every mature industry. The entry of an unaffiliated team, staffed by investigators whose formative case was Mt. Gox, the theft whose decade of creditor litigation taught crypto what unresolved forensics cost, breaks the monopoly on exactly the incident where the official account carries financial consequences: eligibility for restitution flows from the accepted reconstruction, and a disputed reconstruction means disputed eligibility, appeals, and the exact procedural morass the two-week schedule cannot absorb.
The dispute’s existence, whatever its resolution, teaches two durable lessons. The first is that restitution mechanisms need an evidentiary standard before they need code: who adjudicates victimhood, against which account of events, with what appeal path, questions the traditional financial system answers with courts and regulators and that a decentralized recovery must answer with something, publicly, in advance, or improvise under fire. The second is that a market for adversarial blockchain forensics is forming, funded by exactly these disputes, and its emergence is unambiguously healthy: official accounts that expect independent review are written more carefully, mechanisms designed under scrutiny are designed better, and the industry’s post-mortem culture, long a public-relations genre, acquires the beginnings of a discipline. If the SecondFi fortnight produces nothing else, a precedent that serious incidents get second opinions would justify the episode’s place in the canon by itself.
What the two weeks will actually prove The experiment resolves into observable outcomes on a short clock, and the reading guide is worth writing in advance. Completion on schedule, with victims restored and the mechanism’s design published for audit, proves the founding-entity model viable at small scale and makes it the reference implementation every future incident invokes, on Cardano and beyond. Partial completion, some victims, disputed eligibility, timeline slippage, proves the harder truth that restitution’s binding constraint is not engineering but forensics, and elevates the Tibane-versus-official divergence from footnote to headline. Failure or quiet abandonment feeds the code-is-law canon and, less obviously, damages the specific asset that motivated the attempt: Cardano’s institutional courtship, the Clearstream custody listing landing the same week, leans on the ecosystem’s reputation for process, and a botched recovery is a process failure in the one arena institutions watch.
Beyond the fortnight, the durable questions are two. Whether the mechanism, whatever it is, gets generalized, documented, criticized, and hardened into ecosystem infrastructure, or remains a one-off that future victims cite and cannot access. And whether the precedent’s boundary holds: the recovery’s architects have implicitly drawn a line, exceptional response, no base-layer change, no standing power, and the entire value of the experiment, for Cardano and for the industry, depends on that line surviving its own success. Crypto has proven, exhaustively, that it can build systems where theft is final. The SecondFi fortnight is a test of something the industry has barely attempted: whether it can build justice on top of finality without dissolving the finality, and 374 wallets, $2.4 million, and one founding entity’s reputation are the stakes of the first controlled trial.
Beyond Cardano, the audiences with the most to learn are the ones building the systems where this question arrives at a thousand times the scale. The tokenized-asset rails now carrying equities and Treasuries onto public chains inherit, with the assets, traditional finance’s non-negotiable expectation that errors and thefts get remediated, and every institution wiring real-world value into blockchain settlement is implicitly betting that something like the SecondFi mechanism, generalized, standardized, and legally legible, will exist when it is needed. The corporate chains have answered the question by centralizing it, their operators can intervene, and everyone knows it, which is exactly the answer the decentralized ecosystems cannot give and the reason this experiment matters disproportionately: it is a test of whether the neutral chains can offer remediation without becoming the corporate ones. Regulators, meanwhile, read incidents like this in their own dialect: a shown industry capacity for orderly restitution is an argument against prescriptive consumer-protection mandates, and a shown incapacity is the argument for them, which places the fortnight’s outcome, improbably, inside the same policy conversations deciding the industry’s classification and custody rules.
The final word belongs to proportion, which has been this piece’s method throughout. Two point four million dollars is nothing; 374 wallets are a village; two weeks is a news cycle. And the question the village and the fortnight are answering, whether a system built so that no one can reverse anything can still, when it matters, make things right, is the oldest and largest open question in the industry, older than the DAO, as large as adoption itself. Small experiments that answer large questions are the best bargains in institutional history. This one cost sixteen million ADA, none of it EMURGO’s, and its findings, either way, will be cited for a decade.
For readers tracking the experiment live, the checklist is short: the mechanism’s technical publication, the first restored balances on-chain, the treatment of disputed addresses, the Tibane findings’ final form, and whether any authority created for the recovery is verifiably dismantled afterward. Five items, two weeks, one precedent, and the rare crypto story whose ending will be a matter of public record rather than public argument.
And a housekeeping note befitting a live experiment: this piece freezes a moving story at the midpoint of its two-week window, the mechanism’s details were unpublished at this writing, and the account above should be read against the recovery’s actual outcome, which, by the time most readers arrive here, will be a matter of on-chain record. That the story can be checked against the chain is, fittingly, the whole point of the system being tested.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset markets are volatile, and you can lose your entire investment. Incident details reflect public reporting as of July 9, 2026, and the recovery process described is ongoing; verify current status before relying on any account of it. Always do your own research.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) has moved to put an end to persistent speculation that he is stepping away from the project. In a new video posted on July 10, Hoskinson flatly denied the claims, calling them "categorically untrue" and "a complete fabrication."
How the rumors spread The exit narrative built over several months from clips stripped of their surrounding context. A New Year 2026 stream in which Hoskinson said he had "outgrown X" and was handing the account to curators circulated without the explicit denial he delivered in the same session. A 26-minute reform video in which he criticized the Cardano Foundation's governance structure also generated clips that left out the surrounding denial. According to Hoskinson, some users edited and manipulated older statements to create a false narrative, and the content spread quickly within the Cardano community.
The rumor spread far enough that a London taxi driver relayed it to visiting Cardano supporters, and contacts at a partner firm had passed the same claim to their own chief executive. Hoskinson asked supporters to share the rebuttal video with anyone still repeating the story.
Doubling down on Cardano, not stepping back Far from retreating, Hoskinson says Input Output remains one of the largest builders on the network, with the roadmap pressing ahead across Leios, RealFi and Pogen. He is also working on a political party initiative. He has also been explicit about his formal position: he holds no governance keys, cannot initiate a hard fork or protocol parameter change, has no treasury access, and does not own the Cardano trademark. The Plomin hard fork in January 2025 transferred key governance powers to ADA holders via DReps, meaning his influence is structural and reputational rather than executive.
The denial comes against a difficult backdrop. EMURGO, one of Cardano's three founding organizations and the developer of the SecondFi wallet, announced it is stepping down from its role in the Pentad governance group to focus on recovering user funds following a $2.4 million exploit. The SecondFi wallet, a rebranded version of the well-known Yoroi wallet that EMURGO relaunched earlier this year, was compromised through a flaw in its address generation system. Attackers exploited that vulnerability to drain roughly 16 million ADA from 374 wallets, valued at approximately $2.4 million at the time.
Cardano's $ADA fell about 5% after the EMURGO announcement, compounding existing pressure. ADA's price action has struggled near multi-year lows, trading around $0.16, roughly 94% below its 2021 all-time high of $3.09. Open calls for Hoskinson to step aside have also surfaced within parts of the community, though he gave no indication he intends to do so. An active funding standoff between DReps and Input Output's research budget also remains unresolved, with Hoskinson warning that the ecosystem could lose scientists if IO's research funding fails.
Sources
Crypto News: Hoskinson Denies Cardano Exit Rumors
The Block: EMURGO Steps Down From Pentad After Wallet Exploit
BeInCrypto: Charles Hoskinson Addresses Rumors He Is Quitting Cardano
Tether’s TON Integration Pushes USDT Deeper Into Telegram’s Crypto Economy is the kind of crypto story that looks simple at headline level but becomes more useful once you place it inside the wider market backdrop. Stablecoin adoption often becomes most meaningful when it is embedded in apps people already use, and TON’s link to Telegram gives this rollout a different distribution profile.
The reason it deserves attention today is not that one announcement or filing magically changes the whole market. It is that the update adds another data point to a sector still trying to work out where capital, users, and regulation are actually moving.
For more details, visit the official Tether platform.
TL;DR Tether expanded native USDT utility on TON-linked yield protocols.The move strengthens stablecoin activity inside the Telegram-connected TON ecosystem.USDT on TON is becoming a payments and app-utility story, not only a trading-pair story. Stablecoins Keep Moving Into New Distribution Channels Native USDT support on TON can reduce friction for payments, transfers, and app-level balances.
Tether’s incentive campaigns are aimed at making the network more attractive to builders and users.
Stablecoins remain one of crypto’s clearest product-market fits. They are used for trading, transfers, payments, treasury management, and increasingly application-level balances. That is why new integrations or regulatory wrappers can matter more than they first appear.
The Bigger Stablecoin Takeaway The wider stablecoin market is increasingly about distribution channels, not just reserve size.
The market is also becoming more competitive. Issuers are no longer only fighting over supply; they are fighting over distribution, network placement, yield design, and compliance status.
For NewsBTC readers, the practical takeaway is to avoid treating this as an isolated headline. The stronger read is to connect it with the current market environment: liquidity is still selective, regulatory pressure has not disappeared, and the projects that keep shipping useful updates are the ones most likely to hold attention when the cycle gets noisy.
That does not mean the story should be stretched beyond what the source supports. The cleaner approach is to keep the facts tight, explain the mechanism, and show readers why it may matter if follow-up data confirms the same direction over the next few sessions.
In other words, this is a development to watch rather than a guaranteed turning point. Crypto moves quickly, but the useful signals are usually the ones that still make sense after the first reaction fades.
The important thing for readers is context. A single development rarely defines the market on its own, but a series of source-backed updates can show where momentum is building. That is why this article keeps the focus on the specific mechanism in play, the source behind it, and the reason traders or builders may care today.
This article is based on information from tether.to.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
In just a few days, Circle’s EURC stablecoin has shattered its activity records thanks to MiCA, proof that regulation boosts adoption. But against the controversial giant Tether, the fight for Europe promises to be fierce. Who will be the winner?
In brief Circle’s EURC records activity records in Europe (1,760 addresses/day) thanks to MiCA. MiCA regulation does not recognize non-compliant stablecoins, making EURC the legal solution in Europe. Circle’s EURC success shows that compliance and transparency encourage stablecoin adoption. A few days after the publication of the MiCA-compliant crypto platforms in Europe, Circle’s EURC stablecoin experienced a historic explosion:
1,760 active addresses per day; 713 new wallets created every day, records over 4 years. Why? Because MiCA excluded non-compliant stablecoins from the European market, which pushed players to seek legal and transparent solutions. Pegged to the euro, EURC is regulated and has thus become the default solution for companies wishing to avoid legal risks.
Explosion of Circle’s EURC stablecoin in Europe thanks to MiCA. Where cryptos are volatile, EURC’s growth is organic and fueled by real demand. This boom proves that regulation does not always stifle innovation… it structures it. But beware, this dependency on Circle raises a question: what if tomorrow a problem at the issuer shakes the entire European ecosystem?
Is the War for the Conquest of Europe Declared Between Circle and Tether? The king of stablecoins, Tether (USDT), leads the dance on the global market with over 100 billion dollars in circulation. But MiCA has made a radical change in Europe. Indeed, USDT being non-compliant, it is consequently delisted from crypto exchange platforms (Binance, Kraken) to avoid penalties. Thus, Circle and its EURC take advantage of this gap to establish themselves as the reference stablecoin for euro transactions.
However, Tether has no intention of giving up. Indeed, the giant is accelerating discussions with European regulators in order to obtain a MiCA license. If Tether succeeds, the fight will be fierce. On one side, Circle, transparent and regulated; on the other, Tether, flexible and already favored by traders. And who will win? Meanwhile, Circle has a strategic lead while USDT remains on hold. Europe is thus becoming the playground of stablecoins.
MiCA has propelled Circle’s EURC stablecoin to the top, but the war against Tether is only beginning. Europe has opted for regulation, but is it ready to take the risks of dependency on a single player? In your opinion, should security be prioritized over decentralization?
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Eddy S.
The world is evolving and adaptation is the best weapon to survive in this undulating universe. Originally a crypto community manager, I am interested in anything that is directly or indirectly related to blockchain and its derivatives. To share my experience and promote a field that I am passionate about, nothing is better than writing informative and relaxed articles.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
