Lower Support Zone Remains in Focus Once this pullback is complete, the implications from last week’s long-term bearish signal could reassert themselves. The lower swing high confirms a bearish trend structure, and the downtrend is expected to continue until there are signs to the contrary. Given the current price structure, a sustained reclaim of the 20-day moving average would provide the first confirmation of improving momentum. Subsequently, a bullish reversal signal in the trend structure would trigger above the new lower swing high of $4,203.
Despite the bounce from the recent trend low, which indicates at least short-term support, a lower support target zone remains nearby could still be tested. It is defined by a range from approximately $3,927 to $3,886, and the entire range should be viewed as a potential support zone rather than a single price level. If it fails to generate buying interest and lead to a sustained advance, the next lower target is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the prior upswing at $3,804.
The USD/CHF pair recoils after reaching a five-day high of 0.8108 on Wednesday, edging down some 0.02% as risk appetite deteriorates due to US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of an end to the ceasefire, as Iran attacked ships on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8078, following a false breakout above 0.8100.
After forming a ‘morning star’ at the beginning of the week and testing 0.8100, the USD/CHF pair is now retreating below that level. Nevertheless, bullish momentum remains intact, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but shows signs of fading.
For a bullish continuation, USD/CHF needs to clear the high of the day at 0.8108, followed by the July 1 peak at 0.8120. On further strength, the next area of interest would be 0.8200, followed by the June 4, 2025, daily high at 0.8250. Above this level lies 0.8300.
On the flip side, if USD/CHF tumbles below the 0.8000 psychological figure, it could exacerbate a move towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7934 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 0.7915. Below is the 0.7900 figure.
Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
The EUR/JPY is in a consolidation, albeit with uptrend bias, as the interest yield differential between the Euro and the Yen holds firm. Current Setup and Live Chart As is the case with several Yen crosses, the EUR/JPY continues to trade within the context of the interest rate differential between the Euro and the Yen. This differential has been brought to the fore following the European Central Bank’s recent rate hike. This action has widened the divergence between the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance and the Bank of Japan’s gradual normalization strategy. The BoJ has been especially slow to raise rates since it commenced its normalization strategy in 2024. This has left Japanese interest rates the lowest among developed-world currencies. This has led to a sustained uptrend in EUR/JPY, but the pair is currently consolidating as markets await further clues from both sides.
Macro Drivers for the EUR/JPY 1) Interest Rate Differentials
The ECB rate hike on 11 June 2026, which raised the policy rate in the Eurozone from 2.15% to 2.40%, widened the interest rate differential from 165 to 190 basis points. This yield advantage for the Euro is now drawing demand to the single currency relative to the lower-yielding Yen.
2) Gradual Pace of the Bank of Japan Policy Normalization
Despite the Bank of Japan’s shift away from the ultra-accommodative policy of the late 90s, interest rates remain low relative to other G10 currencies. Furthermore, the tightening of monetary policy remains slow and gradual. It has failed to keep up with the market’s expectations for a more aggressive approach as wages rose for the first time in nearly a decade, stoking local inflation. The current state of BoJ policy remains accommodative, which is why the Yen has remained weak relative to the Euro.
3) Risk sentiment & Carry Trades
The ECB’s rate hike has made the EUR/JPY one of the preferred currency pairs on which to carry out the carry trade strategy. When markets operate on a risk-on sentiment, it favors the carry trade, and capital piles into the higher-yielding currency in the currency pair. In this situation, the preferred currency is the Euro. In risk-off settings, flight to safety is the game play and capital flows away from the risk-associated Euro to the safe-haven Yen.
Near-term EUR/JPY Price Catalysts 1) ECB communication: The markets will continue to watch commentary from ECB policymakers and ECB Chair Christine Lagarde for further clues on the monetary policy of Europe’s apex bank. Currently, the ECB has given hints that it intends to follow a data-dependent approach, which many interpret as a “wait-and-see” approach. However, watch out for PMI releases and data prints surrounding ECB inflation and growth. These are the predominant metrics the ECB comments about in pursuance of its core mandate.
2) Bank of Japan commentary: The commentary from the BoJ will center on further normalization in response to local inflation, or on any interventionist moves. Further filip is also provided by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
3) Global market sentiment: Events such as geopolitical developments can force a shift in global market sentiment. When sentiment is risk-on, it favors the carry trade and a further uptick in the pair. Conversely, risk aversion drives demand for the Yen as investors dump the risk-associated Euro.
EUR/JPY Forecast Scenarios Base case: bias remains bullish due to the interest yield differential. However, the announcement by US President Donald Trump on ending the recently signed truce with Iran could change risk sentiment dynamics, thereby altering the base-case scenario.
Bull case: If EU data comes in stronger than expected, especially growth data, amid cautious BoJ normalization, this could be bullish for the pair. Expansion of carry trades and new Euro demand could break the consolidation pattern and lead to an upside continuation.
Bear case: Weaker Eurozone growth data, a return of geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, and the return of the oil shock risk premium could trigger risk aversion, leading to a drop in Euro demand and flight to safety of the Yen. This would allow for a reasonable retracement from recent highs even in the face of a cautious BoJ.
EUR/JPY Technical Outlook The price action continues to play out within the borders of the evolving symmetrical triangle. This pattern is a consolidation that serves as a resting point from the uptrend, with pattern resolution expected to be bullish in nature. This expectation will be confirmed on a break of the triangle’s upper boundary and the 187.84 resistance (17 April high), with 190.02 (psychological resistance and 27% Fibonacci extension of the 1 October 2025 – 22 January 2026 upswing) entering the mix as the immediate target to the north. Further north, 194.87 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) serves as the additional upside target.
However, a breakdown of the triangle’s lower boundary and the 181.94 support (26 January and 13 March lows) invalidates the upside move and unlocks access to the 179.27 support (50% Fibonacci retracement), leaving the 177.63 support (61.8% Fibonacci retracement and prior high of 8 October 2025) as the next target to the south.
The new short-term range is $55.60 to $63.28. Inside this range is the $59.44 to $58.53 retracement zone. Holding this zone will indicate that aggressive counter-trend buyers are trying to establish support. If they fail, we’re likely to see a test of the main bottom at $55.60. If they are successful, then buyers will make another run at $63.28. Take out this level and the short-term trend changes to up with the focus shifting to the 200-day moving average at $70.06 and the 50-day moving average at $70.53.
The longer-term picture is all about value. But this is mostly for the silver investor, not the silver trader. Long-term investors see a major value zone at $60.83 to $46.48. It’s a wide range, but that’s what you get when your all-time high is $120.67. The longer-term investor has the time to build a position inside the support zone.
The problem is, he’s playing against the short-term trader. If the short-term trader can establish a new support base like I wrote about earlier, then with the help of the long-term investor, there’s hope for an upside breakout over $63.28.
From both the short-term trader and the long-term investor, the 200-day MA at $70.06 and the 50-day MA at $70.53 could be a problem. Not only are they potential resistance, but also a major barrier to the uptrend. This area has to be cleared to get the institutional bullish traders on the same side as the retail bull and the long-term investor.
The real test is whether all three groups line up. The long-term investor is buying value. The short-term trader is looking for a base. Institutional money needs both of them to clear the moving averages before it commits. Until that happens, Spot Silver consolidates between $55.60 and $63.28.
What to Watch Brent above $79 is the number that matters for Spot Silver right now. The Iran ceasefire is dead, the Strait is getting worse, and every dollar crude adds from here feeds the inflation repricing that crushed the post-payrolls longs on Wednesday. A pullback in oil gives silver room to breathe but the June FOMC minutes already told traders the committee is closer to hiking than cutting. That does not expire with one quiet day in the Persian Gulf.
The $59.44 to $58.53 retracement zone is where the bulls either prove they have real money or give it up. Hold it and $63.28 comes back into play. Lose it and the next stop is $55.60.
EUR/USD holds firm on Wednesday after reversing earlier losses triggered by renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran, while traders digest the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1427 after hitting an intraday low of 1.1391.
The US Dollar (USD) saw little immediate reaction to the minutes, suggesting much of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) message was already reflected in market pricing. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.97, easing from an intraday high of 101.27.
Officials remained cautious about inflation, which remains well above the central bank's 2% target, while describing labor market conditions as balanced.
Policymakers also signaled that the future path of interest rates will depend on incoming economic data, with some indicating that additional policy tightening could be warranted if inflation proves more persistent than expected.
Nevertheless, renewed geopolitical tensions and expectations that the Fed could deliver at least one interest rate hike this year should continue to underpin the Greenback, keeping downside pressure on EUR/USD.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading within a downward parallel channel and beneath its key moving averages, which keeps the near-term bias bearish.
However, momentum is showing signs of improvement, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovering to 41 from near-oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive, reinforcing the idea of a consolidative phase within a broader downside structure rather than a clear bullish reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal level around 1.1500, closely aligned with the upper boundary of the descending channel, forming a tight cap on any corrective bounce.
Above these, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1611, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1649, represent more substantial barriers that would need to be reclaimed to ease the prevailing bearish tone.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the horizontal level near 1.1350, ahead of the channel floor around 1.1305, where a break would likely open the way for a continuation of the broader downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver prices collapse nearly 2.50% on Wednesday as risk aversion drives traders towards buying the US Dollar, to the detriment of precious metals. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $58.41 after waking at around $61.03.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver is still downward biased, extending the series of successive lower highs and lower lows, besides its trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.19.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearishly biased as the index approaches oversold territory.
For a bearish continuation, if XAG/USD dives below the June 30 daily low of $56.61, this clears the path towards $55.79, the June 26 swing low. Below this level, the next area of interest is the November 13, 2025, daily low-turned-support at $54.39, ahead of the $50.00 figure.
On the upside, buyers must clear the latest cycle high of $63.28, the July 6 high, followed by the June 22 daily peak at $67.17, ahead of the $70.00 figure.
XAG/USD Price Chart - Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold (XAU/USD) price dives over 1.30% on Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East bolstered the Greenback after US President Donald Trump said that the agreement to end the war with Iran was “over.” At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,059 after hitting a four-day low of $4,021.
XAU/USD falls as Oil spike revives Fed tightening risksThe yellow metal is feeling the strength of the US Dollar (USD) and also of rising US Treasury yields. US President Trump’s doubts about making a deal with Iran increased the chances of a resumption of attacks, exerting pressure on Oil prices.
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, gains over 3%, with the barrel quoting at $74.50 at the time of writing. This boosted the Greenback as high energy prices pose the risk of high inflation, fueling bets for higher interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against six currencies, is up 0.10% at 101.20.
US Treasury yields are up, with the 10-year T-note rising almost 8.5 basis points, yielding 4.589%, a headwind for the non-yielding metal.
The swaps markets have priced in 27 basis points of Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening by the end of the year. Nonetheless, for the July meeting, traders expect the Fed to hold rates, as odds are at 65% versus a slim 35% chance of a rate hike, according to Prime Terminal.
Source: Prime TerminalTraders will next watch for the release of the Fed’s last meeting minutes, the first led by Kevin Warsh. On Thursday, the US economic calendar includes the release of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 4.
Wall Street Banks adjust their Gold forecastsBank of America lowered its 2026 Gold price forecast by 14% to $4,360 due to a hawkish Fed but still sees $5,000 as attainable after the tightening cycle.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold price remains bearish, eyes on $4,000Price action shows that Gold remains downward biased, with the yellow metal falling to a new lower low for the third straight day in the week, an indication of sellers’ strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms that bears are gaining traction, with the index pointing lower toward oversold territory.
Traders should be aware that Bullion’s daily chart shows the formation of a ‘death cross,’ an indication that in the medium and long term, further downside is seen.
For a bearish continuation, Gold must remain below $4,100. Once achieved, the next stop would be the day's low at $4,021, followed by the $4,000 milestone. On further weakness, the next stop is the year-to-date (YTD) low of $3,941, followed by the October 28, 2025, daily low of $3,886.
To shift to a bullish trend, Gold needs to break convincingly above $4,250 and target $4,300. Key resistance levels include the 50-day SMA at $4,372 and the 200-day SMA at $4,491, with $4,500 also within reach.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Treasury yields moved higher as bond traders bet that rising tensions in the Middle East would trigger inflationary risks. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.22% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.58%. Rising Treasury yields put material pressure on gold that pays no interest.
FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 32.6% chance that Fed would raise rates at the meeting at the end of July. The probability of a first rate hike in September has increased to 51.3%. The hawkish changes in Fed policy outlook may put additional pressure on gold prices in the upcoming trading sessions.
U.S. dollar was swinging between gains and losses against a broad basket of currencies despite rising Treasury yields. Dynamics of the American currency did not have a material impact on gold prices today.
Currently, gold is trying to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the next support, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels AUD/USD has broken below its multi-month uptrend after falling more than 5% from the yearly highs. Weekly momentum has slipped below 50 for the first time since November, reinforcing the shift in trend pressure. Aussie is attempting to stabilize above major support with the July opening range taking shape just above- breakout pending. A break below support would signal continuation of the broader decline while a rebound above former support would suggest potential false break scenario. Event risk on tap: FOMC minutest today & CPI, retail sales next week. Resistance 6943, 7023 (key), 7116/20- Support 6877/50 (key), ~6796, 6717/57 AUD/USD has broken below its multi-month uptrend after a sharp decline from the yearly highs, shifting the technical focus toward the July opening range and a major support zone just below. Weekly momentum has turned over, and the question now is whether Aussie can stabilize above support and carve out a near-term low, or if the breakdown opens the door to another leg lower. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we highlighted the inflection risk as AUD/USD approached multi-month uptrend support while noting that, “rallies would need to be limited to 7116 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below parallel support needed to fuel the next leg lower.” Aussie registered an intraweek high at 7089 the following week before breaking sharply lower with the decline extending more than 5.6% off the yearly highs into the close of June. The decline marks a break of the multi-month uptrend and pushes weekly momentum (RSI) below 50 for the first time since November.
AUD/USD rebounded off support last week at the March close low and the 1.618% extension of the May decline at 6877/80. The July opening range is being carved just above this zone, and the focus is on a potential breakout in the days ahead to offer guidance here.
Initial weekly resistance is eyed with the 2024 swing high at 6943 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the May selloff at 7023. Note that this level converges on former uptrend support over the next few weeks and a breach / close above this slope would suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the February high close and the 61.8% retracement at 7116/20.
A break below this key pivot zone would threaten another bout of accelerated losses towards the 52-week moving average near ~6796 and 6717/57- a region defined by the 2025 close high and the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2025 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: AUD/USD has broken the November uptrend with the bears now facing the first major test of technical support. The weekly & monthly opening ranges are taking shape just above and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7023 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6877 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.
Keep in mind we get the release of FOMC minutest within the hour with key inflation data on tap next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Australia / US Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Gold is starting to face difficult trading sessions. Over the last 2 trading sessions, XAU/USD has shown a renewed weakness bias, with a decline of just over 3.00%.
This selling pressure has held as new tensions in the Middle East appear to be reactivating the appeal of relevant substitute assets for gold, such as the bond market and the U.S. dollar. If this dynamic continues, the current selling pressure could become even more relevant in gold price movements over the next few trading sessions.
Is the Middle East becoming a concern again? Although there had been a potential temporary agreement to reduce the conflict in the Middle East and normalize the passage of ships around the Strait of Hormuz, an attack on 3 commercial vessels was recently reported. This event led the United States to launch new military actions against Iran and revoke the permit that allowed Iran to sell oil openly to the global market.
In fact, the renewed tensions have reached a point where comments from President Trump suggested that the ceasefire with Iran was over, making the possibility of reaching formal negotiations even more complicated.
The impact on risk perception has started to become important. Once again, the risk premium around the conflict has increased, while the WTI oil barrel has risen close to 10% over the last 2 sessions. This could be reviving fears of inflationary pressures for 2026 and once again reflecting the possibility of more aggressive central banks to control these additional pressures.
This effect has not been entirely favorable for gold. Although gold is usually considered the safe-haven asset par excellence, the conflict in the Middle East has given more weight, for months, to other substitute safe-haven markets such as bonds and the dollar.
In fact, looking at the recent behavior of the 10-year U.S. bond market, a new increase in interest rates stands out, with yields now approaching the 4.6% area. In addition, the market maintains an aggressive upward slope in the short term, showing greater potential appeal in this substitute market for gold, which appears to be reacting more strongly to the increase in tensions in the Middle East.
Source: TradingEconomics
The increase in the appeal of the bond market could also be generating greater demand for the U.S. dollar. The currency could be benefiting both from international capital inflows into the bond market and from the escalation of the conflict, as the dollar usually acts as a liquidity safe-haven currency during episodes of higher tension in the Middle East.
This renewed demand is already reflected in the recent movements of the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers. Since the new escalation of the conflict and amid solid interest rates in the bond market, the indicator has continued to move above the 101-point area, maintaining a relevant upward slope. This indicates that demand for the U.S. dollar remains important.
Source: TradingEconomics
All of this is crucial for gold, because a more attractive bond market and a stronger dollar can create a difficult scenario for the metal to regain strength. At the moment, gold is not being viewed as a liquidity safe-haven asset as attractive as the dollar, and it also does not pay interest like bonds.
This could be generating a loss of demand, as the market seeks exposure to substitute assets for gold. If the appeal of these markets continues to strengthen due to the reactivation of the conflict in the Middle East, gold could remain in a difficult position to recover ground in the short term. As a result, selling pressure on XAU/USD could remain relevant over the next few trading sessions.
Technical outlook for Gold
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Bearish trend line comes back into play: Despite gold’s recovery attempts in previous weeks, the most relevant technical event on the daily chart continues to be the long bearish trend line that has dominated the market for months. Given the lack of relevant bullish moves, this structure remains the most important dominant pattern to watch. If selling pressure manages to stabilize in the short term, a potential extension of this bearish trend line could remain relevant in the average movements of XAU/USD over the coming trading weeks.
RSI: Now, the RSI indicator line maintains a bearish slope below the neutral 50 line. This indicates that the average selling impulse of the last 14 sessions remains relevant in the chart’s movements. If this behavior continues, a significant selling bias could remain important over the next trading sessions.
TRIX: The TRIX indicator line continues to show downward movements below the neutral 0 level. This suggests that the average strength of long-term exponential moving averages remains in bearish territory. For now, this reading shows that, in the broader chart outlook, there is still a relevant selling bias to consider over the next few sessions.
Key levels to watch:
4,345 USD – Crucial resistance: This level corresponds to relevant highs that align with the major bearish trend line and coincides with the barrier marked by the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements returning to this level could put the current bearish trend line at risk and open room for a more relevant buying bias over the coming weeks.
4,182 USD – Near-term barrier: This recent neutral zone coincides with important retracements from recent weeks. If price remains too close to this level, a phase of indecision could be reinforced, potentially opening room for a short-term sideways range.
3,886 USD – Critical support: This level is associated with relevant lows from October 2025 and is considered the next most important bearish barrier. Movements toward this zone could once again highlight a clearer selling bias and extend the bearish trend line as the dominant technical structure over the following weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
The Pound Sterling (GBP) posts modest gains during the North American session on Wednesday amid growing tensions in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump's said the deal with Iran was “over” after both countries exchanged attacks over the last couple of days. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3371, up 0.09%. Read More...
British Pound slumps against US Dollar as risky assets turn fragileThe British Pound (GBP) is down 0.13% to near 1.3340 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as renewed geopolitical risks have diminished the appeal of riskier assets. Read More...
British Pound declines to near 1.3350 as US launches strikes on IranThe GBP/USD pair loses traction to near 1.3355 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the British Pound (GBP) amid renewed geopolitical tensions after the US renewed strikes on Iran. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June meeting minutes will be published later on Wednesday. Read More...
ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that the Euro’s relationship with energy prices has evolved, with recent Oil and Gas gains again weighing on EUR/USD. Earlier in the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices hurt the Euro (EUR), but later the pair became more driven by Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. She now sees EUR/USD guided by central bank expectations, yield spreads and Eurozone energy risks.
Euro sensitivity returns to energy moves"At the start of the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices weighed on the euro against the US dollar. During the conflict, however, EUR/USD became less sensitive to energy prices and more sensitive to expectations for the Fed and the ECB."
"When a Memorandum of Understanding was announced, energy prices fell sharply, but the euro gained little against the US dollar because markets were focused on expectations of Fed rate hikes."
"As a result, oil and gas prices rose strongly, supporting the currencies of energy exporters such as the Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar and US dollar. At the same time, currencies of energy importers weakened."
"The euro again declined against the US dollar as energy prices rose."
"Going forward, the direction in EUR/USD will depend on expectations for the Fed and the ECB, inflation expectations, changes in nominal and real yield spreads between the US and Europe, and perceptions of possible energy shortages in the eurozone."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders reacted to the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/CAD moved lower despite the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY gained ground, supported by rising Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Oil Prices Gain 5%
DXY 080726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders prepare for the release of FOMC Minites and react to rising tensions in the Middle East.
President Trump said that U.S. could launch strikes against Iran and resume the blockade of country’s ports. Oil prices are up by more than 5% as traders react to the surprising escalation between U.S. and Iran. Rising oil prices could force Fed to be more hawkish, which is bullish for the American currency.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
EUR/USD Retreats Amid Worries About Hawkish Fed EUR/USD 080726 4h Chart EUR/USD is losing ground as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets. Demand for risk assets declined amid inflation fears, which was bearish for the European currency.
EUR/USD settled below the 50 MA at 1.1414 and is trying to settle below the 1.1400 level. If EUR/USD settles below 1.1400, it will head towards the support level, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range.
GBP/USD Rebounds From Session Lows GBP/USD 080726 4h Chart GBP/USD is swinging between gains and losses as traders focus on geopolitical tensions and evaluate their next moves.
In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3450 – 1.3465 range.
USD/CAD 080726 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing some ground despite the strong pullback in precious metals markets. Gold is down by -1.5%, while silver pulled back by -4%. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.
In case USD/CAD stays below the 50 MA at 1.4203, it will head towards the nearest support level, which is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140.
On the upside, a move above the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the resistance at 1.4225 – 1.4240. In case USD/CAD climbs above the 1.4240 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.4335 – 1.4350 range.
USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 080726 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.23% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.58%. Treasury yields are rising as traders react to recent developments in the Middle East and bet on hawkish Fed. In case oil prices continue to move higher, the Japanese yen will find itself under additional pressure.
From the technical point of view, USD/JPY settled above the resistance at 161.50 – 162.00 and is moving towards multi-decade highs near 162.80. In case USD/JPY settles above the 162.80 level, it will head towards the 165.00 level. It remains to be seen whether the Bank of Japan is ready to intervene as yen’s fundamentals are extremely bearish. Previous attempts to support the yen yielded no results.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
EUR/USD forecast remains uncertain as renewed US-Iran tensions sends oil higher FOMC minutes coming up but market’s attention is on developments in the Middle East again EUR/USD selling contained relative as it holds inside bear flag Oil returns to the forefront of currency markets The EUR/USD edged only slightly lower, showing surprising resilience for now while European equity markets took the brunt of the sell-off, as tensions in the Middle East made an unwelcome return with renewed intensity. A sharp rebound in crude oil prices has quickly become the dominant market theme again, overshadowing economic data and forcing investors back into defensive positions.
Will tensions de-escalate quicker this time? Well, it is tough to say. Already, Trump has announced they will probably strike Iran again tonight. There will be retaliation from Tehran and things could get quite messy very quickly. Trump’s latest comments certainly don’t point to any de-escalation after he effectively dashed hopes that recent diplomatic progress could continue, reviving concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
Whether events develop into a prolonged confrontation remains uncertain. There is still scope for political rhetoric to soften over the coming days, but for now traders are once again having to price in geopolitical risk. That naturally favours the US dollar while simultaneously weighing on risk-sensitive assets, including European equities and the euro. Europe also relies heavily on energy imports, which makes the euro even more vulnerable.
The prospect of renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz also keeps stagflation risks firmly on investors’ radar. Higher energy prices would complicate the outlook for central banks at a time when many had been preparing for a more benign inflation environment.
EUR/USD forecast: US rates expectations remain supportive for dollar Against this backdrop, the publication of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes may struggle to attract its usual level of attention. Markets already have a fairly clear understanding of the Fed’s position, with policymakers remaining cautious about inflation risks.
If oil prices remain elevated, inflation expectations could become more persistent, giving the Fed more reason to keep policy restrictive for longer, and deliver some rate hikes later this year. That view continues to support US Treasury yields, maintaining one of the dollar’s strongest advantages over its major counterparts. This explains why, despite relatively resilient European economic data, investors have continued to favour the greenback lately.
EUR/USD technical analysis: bear flagging From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD forecast continues to point lower, even if we haven’t seen an immediate drop amid the geopolitical uncertainty yet. But with the pair showing a potential bear flag in the making, the pressure remains.
Source: TradingView.com The 1.1400 area remains an important near-term support level to watch on the daily EUR/USD chart. A decisive break beneath that zone would expose the 1.1300 handle.
On the upside, resistance around 1.1450 continues to cap advances. A sustained move above that level would shift attention towards the psychological 1.1500 mark, with 1.1575 representing the next significant upside objective.
In summary For the time being, however, the fundamental backdrop offers little justification for a sustained recovery. Unless incoming US economic data begins to weaken convincingly or expectations surrounding Fed policy changes materially, say as a result of significantly weaker oil prices (again, unlikely), the dollar’s combination of higher yields and safe-haven demand is likely to keep rallies in EUR/USD relatively limited. That leaves the broader EUR/USD forecast cautiously bearish over the near term.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly softer but supported by a sharp repricing of Bank of England (BoE) tightening. Improving United Kingdom (UK)–United States (US) spreads and positive sentiment around the UK leadership transition underpin GBP, while technicians remain bullish, targeting an extension of gains toward 1.36 within a 1.3300–1.3400 near-term range.
BoE repricing underpins Pound outlook"The pound is soft, down a fractional 0.1% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies in mixed overall trade. The latest resurgence in geopolitical tensions has amplified the renewed tightening in BoE expectations that we had observed over the past week or so."
"The recovery in UK-US spreads is offering fundamental support to the GBP, and compounding the sentiment-related strength observed in response to the market’s favourable assessment of the current UK leadership transition."
"Neutral/bullish—the GBP’s recent recovery is notable, with clear gains from the mid-1.31s in late June. The recovery looks to have stalled around 1.34, with clear resistance offered by both the 50 and 200 day MA’s."
"We remain bullish however, and look to an extension of the GBP’s gains toward 1.36. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3300 and 1.3400."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Wednesday and trades around $58.45 at the time of writing. The white metal remains under pressure after comments from US President Donald Trump revived concerns about renewed conflict in the Middle East, supporting the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields.
Donald Trump said that the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict with Iran is now "over," adding that he no longer wants to negotiate with Tehran. He also stated on Wednesday that the United States (US) could launch new strikes against Iran as early as tonight, saying a deal is not necessary and raising the possibility of targeting strategic infrastructure, including the country's electricity grid, water treatment facilities and Kharg Island, Iran's main Oil export terminal.
This renewed escalation has increased concerns about disruptions to global Oil supplies, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining at the center of market attention. Higher energy prices are reviving inflation expectations, which could increase the Federal Reserve's (Fed) room to tighten monetary policy and therefore weigh on non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Investors are now turning their attention to the release of the Fed June meeting Minutes, which could provide fresh guidance on the monetary policy outlook. Markets will assess whether policymakers remain willing to cut interest rates despite the risk that higher energy prices could sustain inflationary pressures.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
That being said, a short-term bounce is possible. So, if you are a short-term trader, that could be your plan for the day. We have pushed back a little bit against the selling pressure. US rates in a climb during the early part of the session will continue to put pressure on gold, so I’m not a big fan of buying here, but I do recognize that the technical bounce could be part of the play.
Imminent Death Cross Threatens Gold Outlook The 50-day EMA is likely to break down below the 200-day EMA, and if it does, that kicks off the so-called Death Cross. It would not be a good sign either. That being said, the indicator does tend to lag, so that’s just telling you what you’ve seen over the last several months that gold has been in trouble.
I don’t really see anything on this chart that tells me gold is suddenly going to explode to the upside. Longer term, I like it, but right now I think we have too many things working against it for it to truly take off anytime soon.
Obviously, that is a bigger move and would take a little bit of pressure, but really, at this point, all it would take is some type of headline to make that happen. Short-term rallies, I think, continue to be sold into. I don’t like silver at the moment. I love silver longer term, but I think we’re going to revisit that $50 level. This is an area that I think will have a lot of headlines attached to it, and therefore makes for an interesting buying opportunity, at least in theory.
Imminent Death Cross Threatens Silver Outlook That is an area that’s been important for decades; I just don’t see how the market ignores it based on its previous action. We are getting ready to get the 50-day EMA crossing below the 200-day EMA, kicking off the so-called Death Cross. That will bring longer-term traders involved in it as well. With that being said, I am a bit hesitant to buy. I don’t necessarily want to sell right here into support, but I do think it’s probably more likely than not to find a reason to go lower in this kind of environment. I have no real interest in buying at the moment.
The silver market has struggled again during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a bit of trouble in this area, as rates climb, and uncertainty prevails.
Silver recently reversed from the resistance zone between the key resistance level 62.60 (former strong support from February and June), 20-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The downward reversal from this resistance area continues the active short-term impulse wave C which belongs to the ABC correction (2) from February.
Silver can be expected to fall further to the next support level 55.00 (which stopped earlier downward impulse at the end of June).
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Participants should monitor key data, consider hedging, and align positions with risk tolerance amid ongoing volatility While South Africa's healthy trade surplus limits runaway depreciation, upcoming local manufacturing output data and Fed policy minutes pose near-term risks Participants should monitor key data, consider hedging, and align positions with risk tolerance amid ongoing volatility The USD/ZAR currency pair has seen a recovery in recent trading sessions. Following a decline through late June 2026, the pair increased by approximately 0.5% yesterday and continued with modest gains during intraday trading today. This upward movement has gained traction in today’s active session, moving the pair beyond the 16.32 level.
What’s Driving the Move The main reason for this is a general avoidance of risk, not something unique to South Africa.Tensions between the US and Iran have flared up again. Reports suggest President Trump declared a previous ceasefire was “over” after new strikes occurred between the two nations.
Headlines like that usually cause money to move towards safe places like the US dollar and away from currencies linked to emerging markets and commodities. The South African rand falls into that latter group.
Adding to the pressure, prices for gold and platinum group metals have weakened. South Africa is a major global producer of these metals, so softer precious metal prices tend to negatively impact the rand. This is because it reduces the country’s export earnings and the capital inflows from the mining sector that typically support the currency.
Implications for Market Participants This recovery suggests investors and traders should take a measured look. For anyone involved with South African assets or currency trading, it shows how sensitive the rand is to outside factors. The pair’s performance indicates that short-term fluctuations are often more about global money movements than just events happening within South Africa.
Investors might see this recent activity as a reminder that the currency can be quite volatile. Those holding assets in rand might think about using hedging strategies to handle potential price swings. On the other hand, traders looking for specific trading opportunities could keep an eye on technical price levels and upcoming economic reports to see if there’s a consistent upward trend.
A balanced approach is advisable. Short-term traders might find opportunities in the rebound through disciplined position management, while long-term investors should prioritize diversification and fundamental economic drivers over daily price changes. Staying informed about US economic indicators, South African inflation and growth figures, and commodity market trends will be crucial.
For retail investors and those managing currency allocations, this macroeconomic environment suggests that pursuing the recent USD/ZAR breakout requires significant caution. The rand’s current resilience is conditional rather than structurally guaranteed. South Africa continues to maintain a healthy trade surplus, which provides a natural buffer against severe, uncontrolled depreciation of its local currency.
Key Risks on the Horizon Despite the current recovery, significant risks persist. Stronger-than-anticipated US economic data or a delay in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could further strengthen the US dollar, leading to higher USD/ZAR levels.
On the South African side, any weakening of fiscal indicators, challenges with power supply, or shifts in political stability could put pressure on the rand. Volatility in commodity prices also remains a key factor, given the nation’s reliance on mineral exports.
What primary geopolitical factor abruptly halted the South African rand’s steady multi-week appreciation trend against the US dollar?
Sudden military strikes in the Middle East triggered an immediate risk-off reaction, forcing global capital to flee into safe-haven US dollar assets.
How should investors approach this currency movement?
Assess personal exposure, consider hedging, and monitor key data releases while maintaining a long-term perspective.
Is this rebound a buying opportunity for the dollar?
It may suit tactical trades, but risks warrant caution and alignment with overall portfolio strategy.
US Dollar Index futures (DX.F) daily chart. Source: GoldenMeadow.eu The Dollar Verifies Historic Breakout The dollar barely moved today (the move back up after reaching the previous highs is notable, though), and it did not need to. It broke above 100, verified that breakout last week, and it is holding while the metals break. Every failed rally in gold and every fresh low in silver is another vote for the same outcome. The chart has not changed. What changed today is that the market ran the hardest test there is, and the dollar passed.
I owe you one honest caveat, because an oil shock does not press on gold the same way at every size. While this stays a contained flare that lifts crude by a manageable amount, the chain runs clean, from oil to inflation to a firm dollar (higher odds for rate hikes) to weaker metal, which is exactly today. If the Strait were to close outright and crude ran toward the numbers some analysts are now naming, well above $100, the shock would stop being merely inflationary and turn into something harsher, with stalling growth and financial stress in the mix.
That is the setting where gold’s role has flipped before, in the 1970s, once the damage grew large enough to force central banks to fight a slump instead of only prices. Nothing on today’s tape is close to that, and every arrow points my way this morning, but I will keep the full-closure path in view, because it is the one road that would rewrite the script.
None of this dents the outlook. The bounce is spent, the sector is rolling over together, and it is doing so into the loudest bullish headline of the year. War came back to the Strait, oil soared, and gold sank. The market has told you, in the plainest voice it has, what truly drives it.
GDXJ, GLD and SLV comparison chart on the daily timeframe. Source: GoldenMeadow.eu Mining stocks plunged almost 5% yesterday, and given today’s move lower in gold, the odds are that we’ll see a slide well below the flag pattern, perhaps even to new 2026 lows.
Makes one wonder why miners declined so much yesterday, even though gold moved only modestly lower then. Well, it is usually the case that mining stocks lead metals higher or – in this case – lower, but in this particular case… Perhaps someone (or more people) knew that the situation in Iran is going to get messier? The same with oil’s breakout.
You see, the “chart voodoo” also known as the technical analysis is no voodoo at all. It’s a set of rules and principles that work most of the time, but not all of the time because no situation is identical. The point is that they are based on reality, and sometimes on reality that is happening behind closed doors. If one knows where to look, they can stay on the right (legal) side of the said door, and still get a feeling of what’s likely to happen next. Just like you don’t have to be in a given room to hear what’s happening there if you’re close enough. In our case, this “being close enough” means knowing what to monitor.
Also, please note that the FCX was down substantially already yesterday, even though copper is down only today.
The British Pound (GBP) is down 0.13% to near 1.3340 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as renewed geopolitical risks have diminished the appeal of riskier assets.
At press time, S&P 500 futures are down almost 1% to near 7,430, demonstrating a risk-off market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 101.15 after recovering early losses.
Risks of the restart of the Middle East war have forced investors to shift to the safe-haven fleet. In the European trade, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that the “memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran is over”, adding that he doesn’t want to deal with them.
This came as Tehran continues to prove its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of the global energy supply, with aggression. On Tuesday, Tehran struck commercial ships passing through the chokepoint, stating that were crossing the passage without approval.
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get cues regarding why Fed officials decided to abandon forward guidance.
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
The outlook for USD/JPY remains constructive as a hawkish Federal Reserve, resilient US dollar, and renewed geopolitical risks continue supporting the pair near the critical 160 area.
With USD/JPY stabilising around levels last seen in the late 1980s, markets are increasingly questioning whether another structural rally could emerge toward 170 and eventually 180.
Key Catalysts to Watch Several macro drivers are likely to determine whether the next bullish leg develops:
FOMC minutes and any change in expectations for Fed policy. Markets continue to price a meaningful probability of another rate hike during Q4 2026. Bank of Japan intervention risk, both verbal and direct, as USD/JPY approaches multi-decade highs. A sustained DXY breakout above 102, which would reinforce broad US dollar strength. Renewed geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, where higher oil prices could reshape inflation expectations and influence monetary policy expectations.
Source: CME FedWatch Tool
Markets continue to price expectations well ahead of policy decisions. While the dollar remains fundamentally supported, incoming inflation, employment, and growth data between now and September will ultimately determine whether the dollar strength continues to strengthen.
DXY Outlook: The Dollar Remains the Main Driver DXY Price Forecast: Monthly Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
USD/JPY remains fundamentally tied to the direction of the US Dollar Index.
As long as DXY continues holding above the critical 100.30–99.30 support zone, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
This area has consistently attracted buyers throughout 2026 and continues to define the longer-term trend.
A sustained breakout above 102 would likely confirm a continuation toward:
102.80 104.50 107.00 —the upper boundary of the long-term descending channel that has contained price action since 2022.
Such a move would reinforce dollar strength across global currency markets while increasing downside pressure on major currencies and precious metals.
It would also strengthen the technical case for USD/JPY to challenge the 170–180 region discussed below.
The dollar's outlook remains closely linked to three dominant themes:
Higher-for-longer Federal Reserve policy. Inflation developments. Energy prices and renewed geopolitical risks. I discuss these levels regularly during my Daily MENA Market Call.
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USD/JPY Weekly Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
USD/JPY Approaches Multi-Decade Resistance From a weekly perspective, USD/JPY continues respecting the ascending channel that has guided the uptrend since 2022.
At the same time, price remains inside a shorter-term rising channel that has developed over the past year.
Together, these two structures continue to define the broader bullish trend.
The pair is now approaching one of the most important technical areas on the chart:
163
This level represents:
Multi-decade horizontal resistance. Midpoint of the broader ascending channel since 2022 Upper boundary of the one-year rising channel. Bullish Scenario A sustained breakout above 163 would strengthen the broader bullish trend and expose:
166 170 These levels coincide with:
The upper boundary of the one-year ascending channel. The 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the May 2025–April 2026–May 2026 advance. Should bullish momentum continue, attention would shift toward:
173 178–180 These represent the upper boundary of the longer-term ascending channel that has guided price action since 2022.
However, intervention risk from the Bank of Japan would likely increase substantially as USD/JPY approaches these historically significant levels.
Momentum indicators also suggest weekly conditions are becoming increasingly overbought, implying upside may become more gradual unless momentum strengthens further.
Bearish Scenario The lower boundary of the one-year ascending channel remains the key support zone.
A sustained break below:
160.40 159.40 would increase the probability of a deeper corrective move toward:
158.00 155.00 A break below those levels would expose the longer-term ascending trendline support near 149, which has guided the broader uptrend since 2022.
Although the secular trend remains bullish, corrective pullbacks should be expected as the pair approaches historically significant resistance.
Why 163 Matters Three-Month Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
Viewing USD/JPY on the quarterly chart places the current rally into a broader historical context.
The 163 region closely aligns with resistance originating from the highs of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
This reinforces the significance of any sustained breakout beyond current levels.
Unlike shorter-term charts, the quarterly timeframe illustrates that a move above 163 would represent much more than another short-term rally—it would mark a structural breakout from one of the most significant resistance zones of the past several decades.
Could USD/JPY Reach 180? While 180 remains a longer-term scenario rather than a near-term forecast, the technical structure suggests it cannot be dismissed if current macro conditions persist.
A sustained breakout above 163, combined with continued US dollar strength, higher-for-longer Fed expectations, and only limited effectiveness from BOJ intervention, could gradually expose the former support region from the early 1980s near 180.
This area is likely to represent the next major long-term resistance before a more meaningful correction develops.
Ultimately, the balance between a hawkish Federal Reserve and a cautious Bank of Japan will determine whether USD/JPY simply retests historical highs—or begins another structural advance toward the 170–180 region.
Gold (XAU/USD) sees a sharp move lower on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire deal with Iran was “over” and said that dealing with Tehran is “a waste of time” while speaking at the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,055, retracing most of the gains recorded in the previous week.
The US President’s remarks came after renewed fighting between the United States and Iran overnight, following attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest escalation represents the most significant breach of the interim US-Iran agreement since it took effect on June 17, lifting the US Dollar (USD) and Crude Oil prices while dampening demand for the yellow metal.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil is trading around $73.50 per barrel, up more than 7% so far this week.
The rebound in Oil prices rekindled inflation concerns, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing the probability of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike rising to 68% from 58% a day earlier.
Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on Gold as investors favor interest-bearing assets. US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding around 4.57% on Wednesday, close to its highest level since late May.
The June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, due later in the American session at 18:00 GMT, will be closely watched for hints about the Fed's next move.
For now, Gold's price action remains driven by interest rate expectations, overshadowing its traditional role as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset.
The precious metal is trading nearly 28% below its record high of around $5,600 reached in January and remains vulnerable to further losses amid an unfavorable macro backdrop.
Even so, the longer-term outlook remains underpinned by structural demand from central banks and institutional investors, which could help limit deeper declines.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD slides toward $4,000 support
On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD retains a bearish near-term tone as price holds below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,128.
The yellow metal is retreating from recent highs and remains capped by a dense overhead structure, while momentum indicators reinforce the softer bias: the Relative Strength Index (14) has slipped toward 38, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned negative with a declining histogram, hinting at persistent downside pressure.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-period SMA near $4,128, followed by the horizontal barrier at $4,200 and the 200-period SMA at $4,260, before a stronger cap emerges at $4,400.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal level of $4,000, where a break would likely open the door to a deeper corrective slide, while holding above this floor would keep XAU/USD in a consolidative bearish phase beneath the mentioned moving averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Although the trend is down and the market is in the midst of a three-day sell-off, we still have to respect the short-term retracement zone at $4072.40 to $4041.65. This is because aggressive counter-trend buyers could step in to stop the price slide.
If enough buyers do show up inside this retracement zone, a secondary higher bottom could form and prices could turn quickly, setting up the possibility of a retest of $4162.36 to $4214.34. Overcoming this area will change the trend to up and all of a sudden, the 50-day moving average at $4372.44 will hit the radar.
If buyers turn out to be scarce and sellers continue to dominate then look for $4041.65 to fail and the market to possibly plunge into the main bottom at $3942.10. This is the last potential support before the next bearish trigger point at $3886.46.
Essentially what I’m saying is, trader reaction to $4072.40 to $4041.65 will set the tone on Wednesday. A new secondary higher bottom could begin to form on a sustained move over $4072.40, or the sell-off could resume with conviction under $4041.65.
While this is our short-term view, longer-term buyers may find value at $3942.10 to $3886.46, but that’s it. If $3886.46 fails, another down leg could begin. As far as a long-term rally is concerned, the market has to clear two retracement zones and a pair of moving averages before I’ll declare the selling over.
Our choices are to passively bid in the value zone, or aggressively take out offers, hoping for a breakout to the upside. If buyers come in on the lows, but disappear before the breakout, we could be in for a long-term sideways trade.
What to Watch Four forces are working against gold at the same time and none of them are reversing. Crude above $74 keeps inflation expectations elevated. Treasury yields are climbing across the curve. The dollar is at a weekly high. September hike odds jumped to 68% before the minutes even dropped. If the minutes read hawkish, that number goes higher and gold loses another layer of support.
Gold is sitting right on top of the $4,072.40 to $4,041.65 retracement zone. A hold there builds a secondary higher bottom and the short-term picture changes. But four headwinds hitting at once makes that a hard floor to defend. If it breaks, $3,942.10 is the main bottom and $3,886.46 is where the next leg down accelerates.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Memory is trying to rebrand itself from boom-bust commodity to AI infrastructure toll road, but the market is not ready to erase decades of cyclicality.
Long-term agreements are the key structural shift: deposits, price floors and multi-year supply commitments can reduce downside risk.
The trade-off is upside. If chipmakers sell too much volatility back to customers, they may protect margins but cap the very earnings torque investors are paying for.
SK Hynix’s US listing is less about prestige and more about proof. New York wants evidence that AI memory earnings are durable, not just another cycle dressed in Nvidia-era clothing.
Memory chips have always been the market’s most glamorous steel mill: brilliant at the top of the cycle, brutal at the bottom, and forever trying to convince investors that this time the furnace will not cool.
That is the real question hanging over SK Hynix’s $28 billion US listing. The ADRs may begin trading into one of the most powerful AI memory booms in history, but the market is already asking the uncomfortable question: can the memory makers finally break the old boom-bust curse, or are they merely standing at the sunniest point of another cycle?
On the surface, the story looks almost too good to challenge. AI demand has turned high-bandwidth memory into the new strategic ore of the digital economy. SK Hynix, Micron and Samsung sit inside an oligopoly at the very moment the hyperscalers are scrambling for supply. Margins are fat, pricing is firm, and the industry has the kind of customer desperation every commodity producer dreams about.
But memory has always had a cruel habit of making geniuses at the top and ghosts at the bottom. That is why investors have started to look past the record earnings and ask whether the structure has really changed. Micron and SK Hynix may have entered the trillion-dollar conversation, but their share-price volatility says the market has not forgotten the old graveyard. Michael Burry’s short in Micron landed because the line was familiar: this is still a business that has historically defined cyclicality.
Samsung’s 8% drop despite a preliminary earnings beat was another warning flare. In this market, one strong quarter is not enough. Investors are no longer paying simply for today’s earnings. They are paying for proof that tomorrow’s earnings will not vanish when supply catches up, customers pause, or China decides to flood the field. CXMT and other aggressive entrants are not the immediate hurricane, but they are the clouds building on the horizon.
That is where long-term agreements become the industry’s attempt to turn a rollercoaster into a toll road.
Micron has shown the blueprint. Five-year customer agreements. Cash deposits to secure supply. A price band with a ceiling linked to prevailing market prices and a floor that still protects unusually high margins. In plain trader language, the chipmakers are trying to sell some upside volatility in exchange for a harder earnings floor. They are writing covered calls on the boom to buy insurance against the bust.
That may be the closest thing memory has to a supercycle argument. If customers are desperate enough to prepay, and if those prepayments make it costly to walk away when the cycle turns, then the old spot-market trap becomes less deadly. The industry no longer has to live entirely hand-to-mouth on the next quarterly price reset.
But there is no free lunch in semis. The more downside protection Micron, SK Hynix and others lock in, the more upside they likely surrender. That matters because the current profit surge is not being driven by explosive volume growth alone. Micron’s DRAM shipments rose only in the low single digits in its latest quarter, while average selling prices jumped more than 60%. In other words, the magic is still in pricing. Give away too much of that upside, and investors may start asking whether the companies have swapped a rocket ship for an annuity.
The other risk is contract timing. If all the agreements mature at the same time, the industry could create its own version of a patent cliff. One day the floors are there, the next day the market is back in the wild. Staggering those agreements will matter almost as much as signing them. Stability is only valuable if it does not expire all at once.
For SK Hynix, the US listing raises the disclosure bar. Stateside investors will not give the company the same benefit of the doubt as local investors who have followed the Korean memory cycle for years. If SK Hynix wants to be valued as something more durable than a cyclical chip pure play, it will need to explain the quality, duration and pricing mechanics of its customer agreements with far more clarity. The market will want to know not just how much memory it can sell. It will want to know how much of the future has already been de-risked.
That is the bigger test. The trillion-dollar club is not just about prestige. It is about convincing investors that earnings have become less perishable. Memory makers do not need to prove they can print money during a shortage. They have done that before. They need to prove they can keep printing acceptable returns when the shortage fades, when customers regain bargaining power, and when the next wave of capacity comes over the hill.
So yes, the circle can be bent. Long-term agreements can soften the old violence of the cycle, lock customers into supply, and give the memory makers a sturdier floor than they had in previous booms.
But broken? Not yet.
For now, memory remains a cyclical animal wearing an AI crown. The contracts may tame the beast, but they have not domesticated it. And that is why SK Hynix’s New York debut is not just another victory lap for the AI trade. It is a public audition for the idea that this time, the industry can keep the music playing after the boom stops shouting.
The Euro (EUR) is trading flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, with bears contained above 0.8535 yet failing to find acceptance above 0.8650 so far. Price action shows a clear bearish trend, although the bullish divergence evident in the four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that sellers might be exhausted.
In the fundamental domain, geopolitical tensions are back in the spotlight as US President Donald Trump called the US-Iran ceasefire to an end. Oil prices have bounced up from recent lows, and risk appetite has vanished, which is weighing on any significant Euro recovery.
European Central Bank (ECB) board member José Luis Escrivá affirmed on Wednesday that the bank should keep all options open but that monetary policy would normally “look through one-off energy price shocks.” The Euro barely moved following Escrivá’s comments.
Technical Analysis: Bullish divergence hints at a potential correction
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8548, with price action forming what looks like an ending wedge. Momentum indicators in the four-hour chart hint at a potential correction amid the bullish divergence in RSI (14) studies and the marginally positive reading at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.
Upside attempts, however, remain shallow so far, with bulls holding below the descending trendline from mid-June highs, now around 0.8565, and the July 2 and 3 highs, in the 0.8275 area. On the downside, initial support emerges at the confluence of the one-year lows, at 0.8533, hit on Tuesday, and the wedge bottom, in the 0.8530 area. Further down, the target is the July 2025 lows around 0.8500.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.13%0.24%-0.21%0.13%-0.33%-0.01%EUR-0.05%0.08%0.20%-0.26%0.09%-0.37%-0.06%GBP-0.13%-0.08%0.11%-0.34%-0.01%-0.45%-0.16%JPY-0.24%-0.20%-0.11%-0.45%-0.10%-0.57%-0.27%CAD0.21%0.26%0.34%0.45%0.35%-0.13%0.18%AUD-0.13%-0.09%0.00%0.10%-0.35%-0.46%-0.18%NZD0.33%0.37%0.45%0.57%0.13%0.46%0.29%CHF0.01%0.06%0.16%0.27%-0.18%0.18%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $4,050 on Wednesday, down 1.40% on the day at the time of writing, as investors favor the US Dollar (USD) following a fresh deterioration in tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The precious metal remains under pressure despite the increasingly fragile geopolitical backdrop, as markets expect that persistently higher energy prices could keep US monetary policy restrictive.
Market sentiment deteriorated after US President Donald Trump said that the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict with Iran was now "over." Trump also stated that he no longer wanted to deal with Iran, while announcing trade measures against Spain and renewing his criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). These remarks supported the US Dollar, while Oil prices advanced amid rising concerns over global supply disruptions.
Tensions escalated after US strikes targeted Iranian military infrastructure in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The collapse of the memorandum with Iran has reignited concerns over the security of this strategic waterway, through which a significant share of global Oil exports passes. Market participants fear that a broader conflict could keep energy prices elevated and fuel a new wave of inflationary pressures.
Against this backdrop, US Treasury yields remain elevated and continue to weigh on non-yielding Gold. Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) June meeting Minutes for additional guidance on the future path of monetary policy.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.56 per troy ounce, down 2.34% from the $59.97 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.61% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.27 on Wednesday, up from 68.47 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Euro (EUR) shows marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday and has returned to levels just above 1.1400 during the European trading session after rejection at 1.1430. A new round of hostilities in Iran and investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting are keeping Euro bulls in check.
US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Wednesday that the ceasefire is over and that, in his view, the memorandum of understanding is no longer in effect. These comments follow a fresh bout of reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran, and the revocation of the US authorisation to sell Iranian Oil.
The market reaction has been tame so far, as investors continue to view these events as manoeuvres to gain leverage in the negotiation process. Beyond that, investors remain wary of placing large directional bets on the USD ahead of the release of the minutes of June’s Fed meeting, eager for further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy plans.
Technical Analysis: A potential bearish flag is in progress
EUR/USD trades at 1.1405, at the bottom of the immediate ascending channel, that might turn out to be a bearish flag formation. Momentum indicators in four-hour charts are turning bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (14) easing toward 44, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping back into slightly negative territory, suggesting that bullish attempts are losing traction.
A break of the channel bottom and Tuesday's low at 1.1400 would boost expectations of a bearish flag formation that would be confirmed below the late June lows in the 1.1325-1.1330 area. The pattern's measured target is just below the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210.
On the topside, Tuesday's highs around 1.1459 and last week's trading peak in the area of 1.1475 are likely to challenge bulls in case of a positive reaction. An unlikely breach of those levels would clear the path towards the mid-June highs, near 1.1620.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.24%0.05%0.70%-0.24%0.23%0.24%0.54%EUR-0.24%-0.22%0.43%-0.52%0.00%-0.03%0.24%GBP-0.05%0.22%0.54%-0.30%0.23%0.19%0.45%JPY-0.70%-0.43%-0.54%-0.96%-0.35%-0.41%-0.19%CAD0.24%0.52%0.30%0.96%0.59%0.55%0.76%AUD-0.23%-0.01%-0.23%0.35%-0.59%-0.05%0.22%NZD-0.24%0.03%-0.19%0.41%-0.55%0.05%0.27%CHF-0.54%-0.24%-0.45%0.19%-0.76%-0.22%-0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around $58.30 per troy ounce during the European hours on Wednesday. The non-yielding white metal struggled as renewed Middle East escalations threatened the interim United States (US)-Iran peace deal. The conflict drove oil prices higher, stoking fresh inflation fears and raising the prospect of higher interest rates, which further weighed on the non-interest-bearing asset.
The tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran has officially collapsed after US President Donald Trump declared the truce finished during the annual NATO summit in Ankara. Sitting alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump stated that he considers the agreement over, calling it "just a waste of time" and raising the immediate prospect of renewed military conflict between the two nations. The breakdown in diplomacy was immediately followed by economic action, as the US revoked a critical sanctions waiver that had previously permitted Iran to sell crude oil on global markets.
This sudden re-escalation has rapidly injected volatility into the energy sector, as the hostile environment discourages regional producers and commercial shipowners from navigating the Strait of Hormuz. With shipping companies actively avoiding the volatile chokepoint, concerns are mounting over severe, renewed disruptions to the global energy supply.
Meanwhile, financial and commodity markets are balancing these geopolitical anxieties against upcoming macroeconomic data, as traders look to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting for clues on interest rates. While silver had recently rebounded on the back of softer-than-expected US jobs data, which prompted investors to scale back expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, the sudden conflict in the Middle East has clouded the horizon, leaving the broader policy and market outlook highly uncertain.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
OCBC Bank’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong explain that the precious-metals complex has come under renewed pressure following the recent spike in Oil prices. Gold is down nearly 2% and Silver more than 4% week-to-date, as geopolitics work mainly through the Oil, inflation and rates channel. Near term, rallies in Gold and Silver may struggle unless Oil stabilises or Federal Reserve/rates concerns ease.
Non-yielding metals pressured by macro"The precious-metals complex has come under renewed pressure, following the recent spike in oil prices."
"While geopolitics would normally offer some support for gold, the latest move has worked more through the oil, inflation and rates channel."
"That has weighed on non-yielding assets, with gold down nearly 2% week-to-date and silver falling more than 4%."
"Silver’s underperformance is not surprising given its higher-beta profile. Near term, unless oil stabilises or Fed/rates concerns ease, rallies in gold and silver may still struggle to sustain."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The British Pound (GBP) has resumed its broader uptrend against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, with price action drawing closer to the 217.00 level and the all-time high of 217.22, on the bulls’ focus. Some dovish comments by a Bank of Japan (BoJ) official have cast doubt about the BoJ’s monetary tightening plans and added pressure on an already weak Yen.
Earlier on Wednesday, the Japanese central bank’s committee member Toichiro Asada, the lone vote opposing June’s interest rate hike, affirmed that he needs to see evidence of demand-driven inflation to support further monetary tightening.
Asada is the latest appointment to the bank's government board, and has been hand-picked by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has repeatedly voiced her preference for low interest rates to promote economic growth. The BoJ official assured that he is “not always opposed” to rate hikes, but these comments are seen as a token of political pressure on the central bank that might curb plans to normalize monetary policy.
Technical Analysis: The Pound might reach fresh highs around 218.00
GBP/JPY trades at 216.89 with a bullish near-term bias as dips have been contained well above previous highs in the 216.00 area. The four-hour chart shows the Relative Strength Index (14) around 66.72, highlighting strong momentum, although the neutral Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) casts a shadow over the strength of the current rally.
Bulls are testing the 217.00 level, ahead of the mentioned high at 217.22. Above here, the pair would enter uncharted territory. A wider picture, however, suggests t that the pair might be in the fifth wave of an Elliot Wave bullish cycle, with the 127.2% retracement of last week's reversal in the 218.00 area, as a plausible target.
Supports are at Tuesday's low of 216.41 and the July 2 highs at the 216.00 area. Further down, the July 2 and 3 lows between 214.70 and 214.80 would come into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%0.06%0.18%-0.24%0.07%-0.49%-0.07%EUR-0.00%0.05%0.20%-0.25%0.07%-0.49%-0.07%GBP-0.06%-0.05%0.13%-0.30%0.00%-0.54%-0.15%JPY-0.18%-0.20%-0.13%-0.43%-0.10%-0.68%-0.27%CAD0.24%0.25%0.30%0.43%0.33%-0.25%0.16%AUD-0.07%-0.07%-0.01%0.10%-0.33%-0.56%-0.18%NZD0.49%0.49%0.54%0.68%0.25%0.56%0.39%CHF0.07%0.07%0.15%0.27%-0.16%0.18%-0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate retreated on Tuesday after touching a near three-week high overnight, as renewed geopolitical tensions boosted demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3371, down from an overnight high of $1.3398.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.335798 (+0.10%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.142074 (+0.18%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.26312 (-0.05%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) attracted renewed support on Tuesday, helping it reclaim some of Monday evening’s losses, as fresh tensions in the Middle East weighed on the market mood.
Sentiment deteriorated following attacks in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, with two commercial shipping vessels reportedly struck by projectiles.
The US has said that Iran is responsible for the attacks, with Washington expected to target Iranian sites in retaliation.
The latest escalation in geopolitical tensions sparked a cautious shift across markets, boosting demand for the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) remained supported on Tuesday, with Sterling avoiding heavier losses despite an absence of notable UK economic releases.
GBP has strengthened in recent sessions as domestic political uncertainty continues to fade. Following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, several would-be leadership rivals have thrown their support behind frontrunner Andy Burnham.
Investors have welcomed the prospect of a smoother transition, with months of speculation over Starmer’s future and the threat of a disruptive leadership battle now appearing to have passed. Burnham is widely expected to take over as Prime Minister without a contest, while maintaining the government’s existing fiscal framework.
This helped the Pound limit its losses against the US Dollar, even as a risk-off mood weighed on sentiment.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Minutes to Influence the US Dollar? Looking forward, Wednesday evening brings the publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision, which could influence the US Dollar. If the minutes reveal an appetite for interest rate increases among Fed policymakers, the ‘Greenback’ could climb.
Elsewhere, market risk appetite could impact the GBP/USD pairing. If tensions escalate in the Middle East, a souring mood could support the safe-haven US Dollar and pressure the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound.
Sterling may remain somewhat supported by the continued unwinding of the political risk premium that had been priced into the Pound. However, with the Labour leadership nominations opening on Thursday, GBP could find itself subdued.
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate fell sharply on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, boosting the 'Kiwi' as policymakers struck a more hawkish tone than many investors had anticipated.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading at NZ$2.3369, down around 0.6% on the day after retreating from recent six-month highs.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.337366 (-0.61%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.99811 (-0.54%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.571431 (+0.70%)
DAILY RECAP:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, marking the first increase in the current tightening cycle.
Importantly, the decision was reached by consensus, with both the Reserve Bank's internal members and external Monetary Policy Committee members backing the rate increase after the previous meeting ended in a split vote.
The Committee said monetary policy remains stimulatory and that a modest reduction in that stimulus was appropriate to help ensure inflation returns sustainably to the 2% midpoint of its target range. Policymakers also acknowledged that inflation risks remain elevated despite lower oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions.
The prospect of further policy tightening later this year helped lift New Zealand government bond yields and supported the 'Kiwi' across the currency market.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) struggled to offset the New Zealand Dollar's gains.
Sterling remained broadly supported by expectations that UK interest rates will stay relatively elevated, but the RBNZ's surprise consensus behind a rate increase proved the dominant driver of GBP/NZD price action.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Focus Turns to the RBNZ's Next Move Following Wednesday's widely expected 25 basis point increase, investors will now focus on whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signals additional policy tightening in the months ahead.
While policymakers stressed that future decisions will remain data dependent, the consensus vote and accompanying statement suggest the Committee remains concerned about inflation risks and is prepared to tighten further if necessary.
If markets continue to price in another RBNZ rate increase later this year, the New Zealand Dollar could remain well supported.
For Sterling, attention will remain on incoming UK economic data and Bank of England expectations, although the near-term direction of GBP/NZD is likely to be driven primarily by changing interest rate expectations between the two central banks.
HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 08.07.2026 Gold hits another roadblock
Intraday analysis covering GBPUSD , XAUUSD (The Gold) , and USOIL , highlighting recent price movements, key technical levels, and short-term momentum shifts across major markets.
GBPUSD hits resistance
Cable had a July to remember, with price action jumping over 200 pips since the beginning of the month.
The market mood has remained positive despite a slight retracement after hitting the 1.3400 zone. 1.3340 is needed if a full reversal is to happen, before a move towards the lower region of 1.3300. On the upside, a break above 1.3400 will lead to a continuation towards 1.3460. XAUUSD looking for direction
XAUUSD (The Gold)is looking to continue its trajectory even after hitting some resistance.
As the price now struggles to secure a move past 4150, the recent double bottom around 4120 is a critical floor to stabilise sentiment. A breach at the said level could trigger a round of liquidation, with the psychological level of 4000 as a potential target. If prices can remain above 4120, then 4190 will be on the radar for buyers as sentiment shifts once again. USOIL going nowhere
Oil is stuck and going nowhere since the previous sell-off.
Only a twist in the Middle Eastern tensions would cause a spike in prices, but for now, no news means no movement. Prices remain in consolidation between 68.00 and 70.00 with the RSI slowly creeping into the neutral zone. A break at one of those levels would see the next phase for the black gold as global tensions simmer. 72.50 is a potential target, with 64.00 being a critical support.
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Key Points:Markets are awaiting today’s FOMC meeting minutes for fresh clues on the Fed’s policy stance amid sticky inflation.DXY held at $101.04 with green continuation candles retesting Fibonacci 0.618 level.EUR/USD defended $1.1418 blue trendline support with green rejection candles absorbing selling pressure.GBP/USD held $1.3360 resistance zone, testing key levels with mixed candles and neutral momentum.
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Dollar, Euro and Pound Navigate Divergent Central Bank Paths On July 8, the dollar, euro, and sterling were underpinned by different monetary policy settings and economic conditions. Core inflation has remained elevated in the U.S., meaning the Fed is disinclined to ease rates in any near term, keeping a more hawkish setting and dollar attractive as a reserve currency, alongside a strong economy and fiscal balance sheet.
The euro was hampered by heterogeneous growth across the euro zone as the ECB looks to keep inflation expectations anchored. Divergent fiscal settings and inflation rates in the bloc add to a transmission effect, making the currency more data and wage-dependent.
Sterling is caught between sticky services inflation and weaker growth, with the BoE weighing the labour market data and fiscal policy. The relative policy stance of the Fed, ECB and BoE is likely to continue to underpin cross-rates.
All in all, different inflation trajectories, fiscal positions and economic resiliencies will likely lead to two-way risk in the currencies, with other variables like trade balances and capital flows likely to contribute to currency dispersion.
DXY Holds $101.04 – Fibonacci 0.618 Retest on 4h Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview DXY is trading at $101.04 on the 4-hour time frame. The 4-hour candles, which are colored mixed red and green, retested the .618 Fib level at $100.31 following a massive breakout off the $97.67 swing low. The candles with bullish color and higher highs indicate buyers continue to respect the 50ema at $101.02. The RSI is near 52 with neutral momentum.
In terms of volume profile, the breakout pivot is around $100.59 to $101.06. The .618 Fib suggests that $103.09 will be the next upside target in the next few weeks. Above $100.59, the price action is in a clean, strongly bullish channel. The higher highs and higher lows pattern indicates that buyers are firmly in control.
Trade Idea: Buy $101.04, targeting $103.09, with a stop at $100.59.
GBP/USD Holds $1.3360 – White Descending Trendline Test on 4h GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The GBP/USD is trading at $1.3360 on the 4-hour time frame. The 4-hour candles, which are colored mixed red and green, tested the white trendline at $1.3380 after rejection of the red ma at $1.337. The 4-hour candle with a bullish wick indicates the absorption of buy orders at the resistance, and the 4-hour candles maintain higher highs.
The RSI is near 57 with neutral momentum. In terms of volume profile, the pivot cluster is at $1.331 to $1.338. The next support level is expected to be in the $1.325 to $1.331 area. Within the overall trading range, the price is in a neutral to bullish structure above the trendline, with higher highs indicating that buyers are active on dips.
Trade Idea: Buy $1.3360, targeting $1.345, with a stop at $1.325.
EUR/USD Holds $1.1418 – EMA 50 Defense on 4h EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD is trading at $1.1418 on the 4-hour time frame. The 4-hour candles, which are colored mixed red and green, defended the 50ema at $1.1423 after rejection of the red ma at $1.162. The 4-hour candle with a bullish wick indicates the absorption of buy orders, and the 4-hour candles maintain higher lows. The RSI is near 50 with neutral momentum.
In terms of volume profile, the pivot cluster is at $1.140 to $1.150. The next resistance level is expected to be in the $1.155 to $1.162 area. Despite a downtrend, the price is in a neutral to bullish structure above the 50ema, with higher lows indicating that buyers are active on dips.
Trade Idea: Buy $1.1418, targeting $1.155, with a stop at $1.140.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
The USD/CAD pair loses traction to near 1.4175 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Renewed US military strikes against Iran have boosted crude oil prices and provide some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD).
Reuters reported on Wednesday that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said they attacked US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait after the US launched a wave of strikes against Iran in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.
"For now, the market is keeping to the playbook that Tehran and Washington are still in a high-stakes game to gain leverage during the temporary truce, and that Tuesday’s incident would not descend back into a full-scale war," DBS analysts wrote in a research report.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, USD/CAD retains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period middle simple moving average and comfortably over the 100-day moving average. The pair is advancing along the upper half of the Bollinger envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 66 stays in positive territory but shy of overbought, suggesting firm upside pressure with some room for further gains before stretched conditions become acute.
On the topside, the first upside barrier emerges at the June 24 high of 1.4248. The next notable resistance is the Bollinger Bands’ upper band, coming in around 1.4315 and marking the immediate cap for the current advance.
On the downside, initial support is located at the Bollinger middle band at 1.4145. The crucual contention level is seen at the 1.4000 psychological level ahead of a deeper cushion at the lower band near 1.3975, with the 100-day moving average at 1.3827 reinforcing the broader bullish structure as long as USD/CAD holds above it.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
These shadows highlight positive action in Bitcoin in the short term. This positive action triggered a rally towards $64,700. But the rally was limited as Bitcoin prices continued to drop after the $64,700 level. A break above $64,700 may push Bitcoin back to $67,200. If prices break above $67,200, it will likely push Bitcoin towards $75,000. But if Bitcoin fails to break above $64,700, it may face further pressure in the short term.
Gold vs Bitcoin: Which Asset Looks Better Now? It is interesting to note that gold prices also rebounded from the long-term support of $3,950 as Bitcoin prices also rebounded from $58,000. But gold prices also remain under pressure due to the oil spike and the expectations of Fed rate hikes. The market is now waiting for the FOMC minutes which may further drive the next move in precious metals. But the overall short term direction for gold and Bitcoin remains uncertain.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio shows that Bitcoin prices are forming strong support around current levels as the ratio rebounds from extremely oversold levels. This rebound may introduce support in the Bitcoin market and push prices higher. But a break below the 13 level in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio will likely push the ratio towards the 9 area. If this scenario unfolds, then Bitcoin will likely drop further below $50,000.
Gold and silver fundamentals as of July 8 remain supported by persistent central bank buying and low growth in primary supply. Central banks keep on accumulating gold and silver to diversify their reserves in an era of high public debts and monetary uncertainty. Official sector purchases have been a reliable base, irrespective of swings in investment flows.
Primary supply growth of gold and silver is relatively low. Growth in gold production has been relatively subdued recently due to a decline in ore grades and high costs, and the same is also true for the production of silver. Secondary supply in the form of recycling continues to respond to incentives for selling.
Silver’s fundamentals are bolstered by growth in fabrication demand, particularly for solar panels, electronics and electric cars as part of the global transition to clean energy. Investment demand is also supported by the allocation to precious metals via funds and in physical form.
Gold Spot Holds $4,126 – Double Top Pattern on 4h Gold – Chart Gold stays around $4,126 as the 4-hour chart depicts a double top forming on green and red candles near $4,140. This double top formed following rejection from the 50-period EMA around $4,115. With the price holding above the triple bottom on the green candles near $3,959, the lower high bearish candles point to distribution. RSI sits close to 51, suggesting neutral momentum. The volume profile marks a zone of resistance from $4,091 to $4,140.
The blue 50-period EMA around $4,115 is still limiting upside. Gold Spot looks neutral to bearish below $4,140 on the broader down channel pattern. The lower highs have been keeping sellers in trades on rallies.
Trade Idea: Sell $4,126, targeting $4,091, with a stop at $4,140.
Silver Spot Rises to $60.78 – Fibonacci 0.618 Retest on 4h Silver – Chart Silver trades at $60.78 with the 4-hour chart showing the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $63.44 on green rebound candles. Silver retraced down to this Fibonacci level following a sharp decline from the $69.85 high. From a $57.51 swing low, silver has been making a series of higher lows and bullish rejection wicks, indicating buyers stepping in on the support level.
The RSI is sitting at 49, suggesting neutral momentum. A volume profile fair value cluster is forming on a $59 to $61 zone, as silver looks to test the $61.71 to $63.33 zone. The structure remains neutral to bullish above the 50-period EMA, despite the broader downtrend. Higher lows keep the bulls in the trades on dips.
Trade Idea: Buy $60.78, targeting $61.71, with a stop at $59.00.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold has edged lower after an early advance as traders await the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, but the metal trades in line with evolving US rate expectations and remains supported above $4,000/oz. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz security concerns and persistent official‑sector buying, led by China, underpin the outlook.
Fed path and China buying in focus"Gold edged lower in Tuesday’s afternoon trading after an early advance as investors looked ahead to the release of the June Federal Open Market Committee minutes later this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. The metal continues to trade largely in line with shifting US rate expectations. Last week's weaker-than-expected jobs data reduced expectations of additional tightening and helped gold stabilise back above the $4,000/oz level."
"Meanwhile, official-sector demand remains supportive. Data from the People's Bank of China showed it increased its gold reserves for a 20th consecutive month in June. This marks its largest monthly purchase since late 2023."
"The continued accumulation highlights China's ongoing efforts to diversify reserves and reinforces a broader trend of strong central bank buying. It should continue to provide an important source of support for gold prices despite recent volatility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The US Dollar (USD) appreciates against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, fuelled by the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East and dovish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials. The Greenback, however, is struggling to break last week’s highs at 162.40 so far.
A new round of US strikes on Iran, in retaliation for alleged attacks from Tehran on vessels closing Hormuz earlier this week, hurt risk appetite on Wednesday. and provided some support to the safe-haven US Dollar,
The Yen, however, is suffering from weakness of its own, as BoJ monetary committee member Toichiro Asada, the dovish dissenter at June’s monetary policy meeting, said that he needs to see signs of demand-driven inflation before supporting interest rate hikes,
Technical Analysis: 162.40 is the last barrier before 40-year highs
USD/JPY trades at 162.26, maintaining its positive structure intact although bulls have been rejected at Monday's high in the area around 162.40. Four-hour charts show the Relative Strength Index (14) easing toward neutral from prior overbought readings, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly positive, hinting that upside momentum is still constructive.
On the topside, horizontal resistance at 162.41 (June 6 high) is closing the path towards the 40-year high at 162.85, followed by 162.84. On the downside, initial support appears at Tuesday's low, near 161.70, ahead of the key support area of 160.50, which held bears last week.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Risk sentiment FAQs In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports that GBP/USD failed to sustain its recent strong run, pulling back after testing resistance near 1.3410. Short-term price action now points to an extended correction with focus on 1.3330–1.3315 supports, while on a 1–3 week view a break below 1.3315 would signal that the Pound’s latest advance has ended.
Correction eyes 1.3315 strong support"24-HOUR VIEW: After GBP rose more than we expected on Monday, we highlighted the following yesterday: “Strong momentum suggests further GBP strength toward 1.3410. A break above this major resistance is not ruled out, but based on the prevailing momentum, the next resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach. To sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above 1.3350, with minor support at 1.3370.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. GBP eked out a fresh high of 1.3401 before pulling back sharply to a low of 1.3349. The pullback has scope to extend, but it is currently unclear whether any decline can reach the strong support at 1.3315. Note that there is another support level at 1.3330. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.3370 and 1.3390."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a positive GBP view since early last week. After GBP rose close to our technical target at 1.3410, we highlighted yesterday (07 Jul, spot at 1.3390) that “a break above 1.3410 will not be surprising and could lead to a move to 1.3445.” We did not expect GBP to pull back sharply, as it closed lower for the first time in eight days (1.3360, -0.23%). Upward momentum has slowed with the pullback, and a breach of 1.3315 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3300 yesterday), would indicate that the advance in GBP has come to an end."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 112.70 during the early European session on Wednesday. Nonetheless, renewed tensions between the US and Iran, and fears of possible intervention by Japanese authorities might support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and cap the upside for the cross.
BBC reported on Tuesday that the US launched "powerful" strikes on Iran in response to attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (Centcom) said that it had hit over 80 targets, including more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) small boats in the strait.
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger Bands’ (20) middle band, keeping the broader trend supported after the latest rebound. Price is also comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 51 suggests neutral-to-mildly positive momentum rather than an overstretched rally.
On the downside, the immediate technical floor aligns with the 100-day MA at 112.50 and the Bollinger middle band at 112.43, forming a nearby demand zone; a daily close below this area would expose the lower Bollinger band at 111.15. On the upside, the first upside barrier emerges at the June 16 high of 113.55, en route to the the Bollinger Bands’ upper band of 113.70.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights EUR/USD’s failure to extend its recent advance, with momentum fading after a retreat from recent highs. The pair is now seen oscillating between 1.1360 and 1.1450 in coming weeks, while intraday price action may test 1.1390 without threatening the more important 1.1360 support unless the 1.1430 resistance breaks.
Momentum fades into sideways pattern"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, EUR traded within a range of 1.1408/1.1444 and closed largely unchanged at 1.1440 (+0.04%). Yesterday, we stated that we “continue to expect range-trading, but the firmer underlying tone suggests EUR is likely to trade in a higher range of 1.1425/1.1470.” Our assessments turned out to be incorrect, as EUR fell to a low of 1.1407. Despite the relatively sharp decline, downward momentum has not increased much. However, there is scope for EUR to dip below 1.1390. The major support at 1.1360 is unlikely to come into view. Resistance is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1430 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from last Friday (03 Jul, spot at 1.1430), when we highlighted that “the bias for EUR is tilted to the upside.” We also highlighted that “expect firm resistance at 1.1470 and 1.1500.” EUR has not been able to make much headway on the upside, and yesterday, it retreated to a low of 1.1407. Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1390 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely faded. EUR has likely moved back into a range-trading phase, and we expect it to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450 for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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