Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

MEMPHIS, Tenn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) (“FedEx”) today announced the pricing terms of its previously announced cash tender offers (each, an “Offer” and, collectively, the “Offers”) to purchase up to $4,150,000,000 aggregate purchase price, not including accrued and unpaid interest (the “Offer Cap”), of FedEx's validly tendered (and not validly withdrawn) notes set forth below (collectively, the “Notes”), using a “waterfall” methodology under which FedEx will accept the Notes i.

Trump Just Made Passing the CLARITY Act More Politically Expensive

HomeStock IdeasLong IdeasTech 

SummarySalesforce (CRM) trades at a depressed ~11x trailing FCF multiple, with a forward multiple of ~9.6x, reflecting SaaS-pocalypse fears and AI disruption concerns.CRM executed a massive $24.8B debt-funded buyback, reducing share count by over 10% in Q1 FY2027, signaling management conviction in undervaluation.Base-case annualized return is ~14% assuming no multiple change, with scenario analysis showing limited downside and upside potential of ~49% if multiples revert.AI is reinforcing, not eroding, CRM’s moat; platform integration, high switching costs, and innovation leadership underpin a robust, defensible business model.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of iREIT®+HOYA Capital get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More » jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

The SAAS-Pocalypse and Salesforce Salesforce (NASDAQ: "CRM"), the world's leading cloud client relationship management and enterprise software company, has seen its share price pummeled since it hit a record high of $367.87 on December 4, 2024. Had you held the shares through the

2.34K Followers

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CRM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

AAAU tracks bullion directly with lower fees, while GDX offers mining equity exposure with higher volatility and stronger 1-year returns.

It's the right time to jump in on dividend stocks. Clorox, Pfizer, Verizon and Comcast are some of the names to consider.

Signage is seen at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) headquarters in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 14, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

CompaniesWASHINGTON, July 10 (Reuters) - A federal judge on Friday paused a union lawsuit seeking to block the Trump administration from shutting down the top U.S. watchdog for consumer financial ​protection, agreeing to resume the case after lawmakers decide on the nomination of a ‌new director, court records showed.

The current agency leadership had said the nominee, Capital One (COF.N), opens new tab senior executive Brian Johnson, should be allowed to decide whether to pursue mass layoffs that the administration has for more than a year been battling ​in court to impose on the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, according to a court ​filing.

Jumpstart your morning with the latest legal news delivered straight to your inbox from The Daily Docket newsletter. Sign up here.

The pause pointed to a possible change of direction in the long-running ⁠legal drama as Johnson, a Republican former top CFPB official, prepares to take over from Russell ​Vought, President Donald Trump's budget director and acting head of the CFPB who had publicly vowed to ​abolish the agency.

In an order on Friday, U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson said both sides must inform her within two days should the Senate confirm Johnson as director.

In light of a revised mass layoff plan unveiled in ​April, a federal appeals court last month agreed to allow Berman Jackson to consider lifting ​the preliminary injunction she imposed last year requiring the administration not to fire CFPB workers en masse while the courts ‌decide ⁠if this is legal. The order issued Friday pauses that process.

Under the April plan, the CFPB workforce would fall to 556 workers, less than a third of the agency's size when Trump took office, with 80% and 85% of positions eliminated in the divisions of enforcement and supervision respectively.

Both ​sides now agree that ​if confirmed Johnson should ⁠be able to review the new layoff plan and "decide whether he would like to pursue it," according to a joint motion that prompted Jackson's ​Friday order.

Congress created the CFPB following the 2008 financial crisis to prevent ​predatory lending ⁠and police consumer financial industries that generated many of the toxic products underpinning the crisis.

Trump and other top officials have called for the CFPB's outright elimination, accusing it of politicized enforcement and unduly burdening ⁠companies, ​something consumer advocates have rejected as an illegal giveaway to ​politically connected corporate actors that jeopardizes public welfare.

Vought, who took over as acting CFPB director last year, is legally required ​to step down at the start of August.

Reporting by Douglas Gillison in Washington, editing by Deepa Babington

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

A crypto whale has reopened a large leveraged position on Hyperliquid’s SKHX perpetual market. 

The move comes just days after the trader took a multi-million-dollar loss, as market participants continue positioning ahead of SK Hynix’s expected Nasdaq debut.

On-chain data shows wallet 0x66F4 deposited 20.32 million USDC into Hyperliquid. It then opened a 2x leveraged long position of 15,121 SKHX, worth about $22.5 million.

Onchain Lens Breaks Down the Trade Blockchain tracker Onchain Lens also reported the latest transaction. It said this was the wallet’s first trade since May 23. The position was opened at $1,480.57, with a liquidation price of $145.24.

At the time of reporting, the trade showed an unrealized loss of about $123,555. Moreover, the wallet’s lifetime trading record remained down by roughly $89,700.

Source: https://hyperbot.network/trader/0x66F463866512FC337C89baD2032acBE38ee38836 Whale Bets Again After $4.4M Loss The latest trade comes about a week after a separate whale lost $4.4 million on a previous SKHX long position. Despite that setback, the trader returned with another 2x leveraged long.

The position covered 21,207 SKHX worth roughly $30.17 million. At the time of the update, it was showing an unrealized gain of about 1,322,707.

The renewed position suggests the whale remains bullish on the synthetic pre-IPO market despite recent losses.

Source: https://hyperbot.network/trader/0x9dcf1c87b82a35519a430457c1157f21e68f302d Another Trader Keeps Accumulating Onchain Lens also highlighted another trader, yixie (@yixie10), who has generated more than $9.42 million in lifetime profits. The trader currently holds 1,840 SKHX, valued at about $2.79 million. The position has an unrealized gain of roughly $324,300.

The trader has also placed a TWAP order to buy another $1.05 million worth of SKHX. The order targets a price range between $1,488 and $1,520, suggesting continued accumulation.

Open Interest Surges Before Listing Interest in SKHX has continued to build ahead of SK Hynix’s expected Nasdaq listing on Friday.

According to data shared by GoldRush, open interest in SKHX perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid reached about $250 million. The contracts also recorded $880 million in 24-hour trading volume. SKHX was trading near $1,571.23, up 8.2% over the past 24 hours.

Fhenix contributor Zenonchain said the strong open interest ahead of the public listing reflects solid demand for pre-IPO exposure. He compared the activity to earlier synthetic markets tied to SpaceX and Cerebras.

Zenonchain also noted that the Hyperliquid Stocks sector gained 6.1%, highlighting growing interest in tokenized pre-IPO assets.

DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.

George Town, Grand Cayman--(Newsfile Corp. - July 10, 2026) - StoneCo Ltd. (NASDAQ: STNE) ("Stone") today announces that it will release its second quarter 2026 financial results on Thursday, August 13th, 2026, after the market closes. The Company will also host a conference call to discuss its results on the same day at 5:00pm ET (6:00pm BRT).

The conference call can be accessed live over the Zoom webinar (ID: 811 1885 5067 | Password: 785025). You can also access the meeting over the phone by dialing +1 646 931 3860 or +1 669 444 9171 from the U.S. Callers from Brazil can dial +55 21 3958 7888. Callers from the UK can dial +44 330 088 5830. The call will also be webcast live and a replay will be available a few hours after the call concludes. The live webcast and replay will be available on Stone's investor relations website at https://investors.stone.co/.

The Company also hereby informs that it will initiate its Quiet Period related to its second quarter 2026 financial results on July 27th, 2026.

About Stone

Stone is a leading provider of financial technology solutions that empower merchants to conduct commerce seamlessly across multiple channels and help them grow their businesses with payments, banking and credit.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/304724

Source: StoneCo Ltd.

Wall Street has a habit of making investors question their own sanity.

A company can post the best quarter in its history, crush expectations, raise the bar for an entire industry...and the stock still gets sold. Sound familiar? That's exactly what we've been watching unfold across memory chips and several AI infrastructure names.

Take Micron Technology (MU). The company delivered a blockbuster quarter in late June, producing record revenue, explosive earnings growth, and more evidence that AI demand for high-bandwidth memory and DRAM remains incredibly strong. By almost every fundamental measure, it was exactly what investors had been hoping to see.

Yet instead of rewarding shareholders, the market hit the sell button.

Then came Samsung Electronics. The company followed with preliminary second-quarter results showing another eye-popping surge in operating profit, fueled by the same AI data center spending that's reshaping the semiconductor landscape. Once again, the headlines looked spectacular. Once again, the stock struggled as investors focused less on the record profits and more on future spending, rising capital expenditures, and whether the cycle is getting "too good."

That selling pressure quickly spilled over to U.S. memory names. We've seen a similar story play out with Nebius Group. After becoming one of the hottest AI infrastructure stories on the market thanks to its GPU cloud buildout, the stock has surrendered a meaningful portion of its gains as enthusiasm gave way to concerns about competition, valuation, and execution.

None of this is unusual.

It's simply what happens when expectations get ahead of reality.

The Market Doesn't Reward Great...It Rewards Better Than Expected

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming strong earnings automatically translate into higher stock prices. That's not how Wall Street works. Stocks don't trade on what happened last quarter. They trade on what investors expect to happen over the next six to twelve months. When everyone expects perfection, "excellent" suddenly feels disappointing.

That's especially true in themes as crowded as AI and memory. After triple-digit moves, investors stop asking whether a company is growing. They start asking whether growth can get even better.

If management hints at higher spending...

If margins look like they've peaked...

If competitors are catching up...

If guidance is merely "very good" instead of spectacular...

Algorithms don't wait around to debate it. They simply hit sell. It's classic "sell the news" behavior. By the time earnings arrive, many traders have already made their money. The report simply becomes an excuse to lock in gains. The Fundamentals Haven't Changed

Here's the important part. None of these pullbacks suddenly mean AI demand disappeared. Quite the opposite. Cloud providers are still spending aggressively. Hyperscalers are still ordering GPUs. HBM remains supply constrained. Memory demand tied to AI inference and training continues to look healthy well into the coming years.

That's why these violent reactions often have much more to do with positioning than fundamentals. When everyone owns the same stocks, there simply aren't enough buyers left when the music pauses.

Continued . . .

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Buy These Stocks BEFORE They Report Earnings

Next week, 141 companies are scheduled to report earnings. What if you could know in advance which few would shock Wall Street by beating earnings expectations and pop in price?

Now you can.

Zacks proprietary "ESP" formula predicts positive earnings surprises with unthinkable 80% accuracy. They’ve led us to recent gains of +78.2%, +64.5%, and +34.3% in as little as 10 days.¹

What stocks is the system picking today? Find out before doors close to new investors at midnight, Sunday, July 12.

See Surprise Stocks Now >> 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Follow the Money

While investors focus on the selling in semiconductors, they're missing what's happening elsewhere. The money isn't leaving the market. It's moving. That's internal rotation. Capital has been flowing toward areas that largely sat out the AI party.

Financials have attracted fresh interest. Healthcare has quietly stabilized. Consumer staples are seeing renewed buying. Industrials and select small-cap names have started participating again as investors broaden their exposure beyond the same handful of AI leaders.

That's actually a healthy development. Bull markets don't survive when only a dozen stocks carry the entire market. They become much stronger when leadership expands. What Investors Should Do

This is where discipline matters. Don't confuse price action with business performance. A stock falling after great earnings doesn't automatically mean the story is broken. Sometimes it simply means expectations got ahead of reality. Instead of reacting emotionally, ask yourself a few simple questions. Has the long-term thesis actually changed? Is AI demand slowing? Has valuation become more attractive after the pullback? Where is institutional money rotating next?

The Whisper of the Zacks Earnings ESP

One of the things that gets us on the hunt for where the money is moving is going back to the basics of the earnings estimate philosophy at the heart of the Zacks Rank. Here are the clues:

• Earnings estimates come from brokerage firm stock analysts.

• These analysts are highly motivated to create conservative estimates that can easily be beat. Why? If a stock has a Buy rating and the estimates are too high, the stock is more likely to disappoint. This would drive the stock price lower, and their stock ratings would perform poorly (leading to lower compensation).

• The closer to earnings season we get, the more accurate the information that goes into the estimate.

Add it all up, and there is no good reason for an analyst to create a higher estimate close to the date of the earnings report unless they had a DARN GOOD REASON. Focusing on those estimates closest to the earnings announcement is where we found the “whisper that becomes a scream,” a clear indication from the analyst community of which stocks are more likely to beat earnings by a wide margin. And most importantly, rise on that news.

New Surprise Stock to Post Monday Morning

Check our live recommendations right now and be first to the one I’m adding Monday. You can take advantage of buying ripples even before a company reports earnings.

Don't miss your chance to beat Wall Street to the punch and make the most of the potential double-digit price pops. Our signals predict big positive surprises, and they've been right a remarkably consistent 80% of the time!

While not all our picks are winners, recent recommendations have led investors to gains of +78.2%, +64.5%, and +34.3% in as little as 10 days.¹

See the surprise stocks we're holding now and buying over the next 30 days for only $1.

Plus, that same dollar gives you 30-day access to all of Zacks' private trading and investing services. No reason to hesitate. There's not a cent of further obligation.

Bonus: Another reason to look into this right away is that you are also invited to download our just-released "Early Warning Alert" report. It reveals stocks to sell BEFORE they report earnings in the coming weeks. Our strategy works both ways, and you can use this report to avoid companies that are more likely to report negative surprises.

Please note that your opportunity to access Surprise Trader and download our Early Warning Alert for just $1 ends Sunday, July 12.

See our Surprise Trader stocks and “Early Warning Alert” now >>

All the Best,

Dave

Dave Bartosiak is Zacks' resident earnings surprise expert. He selects stocks and delivers daily commentary for our Surprise Trader portfolio.

 ¹ The results listed above are not (or may not be) representative of the performance of all selections made by Zacks Investment Research's newsletter editors and may represent the partial close of a position. Access grants you a comprehensive list of all open and closed trades.

John Coogan spent Wednesday's TBPN segment arguing that the largest AI hardware IPO no US retail investor can buy yet might also be the cheapest name in the entire complex.

Key Takeaways Intuitive Surgical reports Q2 results on July 16, with sales seen up 15% and EPS up 13.2% year over year.ISRG faces margin pressure from da Vinci 5 rollout, tariffs and higher input costs despite strong growth.ISRG's recurring revenues, procedure growth and da Vinci 5 adoption support its long-term outlook. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG - Free Report) is set to release second-quarter results on July 16. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is pegged at $2.81 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 15%, and the same for earnings per share (EPS) implies an improvement of 13.2% to $2.48. The estimate for EPS has remained stable over the past seven days.

In the last reported quarter, Intuitive Surgical delivered an earnings surprise of 20.19%. The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 16.82%.

Although ISRG’s top and bottom-line figures are likely to reflect strong growth during the second quarter, its shares have underperformed the Zacks Medical - Instrument industry as well as other robotic-surgery device makers — Stryker (SYK - Free Report) , Zimmer Biomet (ZBH - Free Report) , Globus Medical (GMED - Free Report) and Stereotaxis (STXS - Free Report) — so far this year. The stock has declined 27.4%, its industry has dipped 14.2%, and the S&P 500 Index has gained 9.5% in the same period. The share prices of SYK, ZBH, GMED and STXS have decreased 6.9%, 0.8%, 12.2% and 24.4%, respectively.

YTD Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

While Stryker commercializes its Mako robotic system for orthopedic joint replacements, Zimmer Biomet has ROSA system, which is available for orthopedic and neurosurgical procedures. Globus Medical and Stereotaxis’ robotic portfolios include ExcelsiusGPS and Genesis systems, respectively, used for spine and cranial procedures, and endovascular interventions.

The underperformance of the ISRG stock has led to a decline in its valuation multiples as well. The Price-to-Earnings Forward 12 Month (P/E F12M) valuation has fallen from a high of 96.05X at the beginning of 2025 to its current 37.12X, reflecting a significant decline despite robust earnings growth. At its current valuation multiples, the ISRG stock looks attractive amid its strong fundamentals.

P/E F12M Valuation of ISRG vs Industry

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Why Investors Are Selling ISRG StockDespite consistently delivering double-digit revenue and earnings growth, Intuitive Surgical stock has remained under pressure this year as investors weigh near-term margin headwinds against its long-term growth story. The biggest concern stems from the ongoing rollout of the next-generation da Vinci 5 platform.

Although customer adoption has exceeded expectations, the system currently carries lower margins than the mature Xi platform due to higher manufacturing, service and support costs. The company also expects elevated trade-in activity as hospitals replace older systems with da Vinci 5, creating an additional drag on profitability. Management further expects faster growth of newer da Vinci 5 and Ion platforms, along with higher depreciation from recent manufacturing expansions, to keep gross margins under pressure in 2026.

Tariffs, higher freight expenses and rising semiconductor memory costs are expected to increase input costs through the remainder of the year, while management continues to monitor potential supply constraints across components. Internationally, China remains a difficult market due to lower tender activity, domestic competition and pricing pressure, while Japan continues to face slower capital placements despite supportive reimbursement initiatives.

Investors are also watching the impact of GLP-1 obesity drugs, which continue to reduce bariatric procedure volumes. Although none of these challenges materially alter Intuitive Surgical’s long-term outlook, they have contributed to weaker investor sentiment and multiple compression in recent months. The entry of both large and smaller players, including Stryker, Zimmer Biomet, Globus Medical and Stereotaxis, into the robotic surgery market could intensify competition over time and erode ISRG's market share.

The Bull Case: What Drives ISRG's Prospect?While short-term concerns have weighed on the stock, Intuitive Surgical's underlying business remains exceptionally strong. The company continues to generate robust financial performance, reporting 23% revenue growth and a 36% increase in adjusted earnings during the first quarter of 2026, supported by 17% overall procedure growth across its da Vinci and Ion platforms.

Recurring revenues accounted for 86% of total sales, highlighting the resilience of its business model. Higher utilization of installed systems continues to drive high-margin instruments, accessories and service revenues, creating a recurring revenue stream that becomes increasingly valuable as the installed base expands. U.S. da Vinci utilization increased 4% during the first quarter, while utilization of da Vinci 5 systems remains approximately 11% higher than the legacy Xi platform.

The da Vinci 5 upgrade cycle is likely to remain Intuitive Surgical's biggest growth catalyst over the next several quarters. Customer adoption has been stronger than expected, with nearly 1,500 da Vinci 5 systems installed and approximately 13,000 surgeons already using the platform. Hospitals continue to upgrade their older systems, reflected by a sharp increase in trade-ins.

da Vinci Market Opportunity

Image Source: Intuitive Surgical

New Force Feedback instruments, additional FDA clearances and ongoing software enhancements are expected to improve clinical outcomes and further accelerate adoption. Intuitive Surgical continues to invest heavily in AI-enabled capabilities through its digital ecosystem. The company is leveraging surgical video, robotic data, force-feedback information and electronic medical records to develop AI-powered anatomy identification, decision support, workflow optimization and, eventually, augmented dexterity and automation.

Combined with rapid growth in the Ion lung biopsy platform, expanding SP procedures, rising international adoption and a growing installed base, these innovations provide multiple long-term growth drivers that reinforce Intuitive Surgical's leadership in robotic-assisted surgery.

Earnings Beat LikelyOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for ISRG this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate ($2.55) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate ($2.48), is +2.78%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ConclusionAlthough near-term margin pressure from the da Vinci 5 rollout, tariffs and higher input costs has weighed on investor sentiment, Intuitive Surgical's long-term investment thesis remains intact. The company continues to deliver industry-leading procedure growth, expanding recurring revenues, increasing system utilization, and driving strong adoption of its newest robotic platforms while building a differentiated AI-enabled surgical ecosystem.

ISRG Short-Term Price Target

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

With consistent strong execution and valuation multiples that have compressed significantly from its 2025 peak to around 37.1X despite healthy earnings growth, ISRG's valuation appears considerably more attractive than it was earlier this year. For long-term investors seeking exposure to robotic surgery, the recent pullback presents an opportunity to accumulate shares of a company with durable competitive advantages and robust growth fundamentals. Moreover, an expected earnings beat in the second quarter, along with its favorable rank, makes it an attractive bet before its second-quarter earnings release.

Andrew Graham doesn't see fatigue hitting the AI space. He believes the issue investors have is a "performance gap" between hyperscalers and semiconductors.

Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) is expected to post accelerating revenue growth in the second quarter, according to UBS, with results likely to come in largely in line with management's outlook on the back of price increases and stable gross margins.

The bank forecasts second-quarter revenue of €4.8 billion, up 15.6% on a foreign exchange neutral basis, compared with 14.2% growth in the first quarter.

UBS expects 6 million premium net additions, down from 8 million a year earlier, citing longer conversion times tied to new free tier features, a shift in campaign marketing timing and a tougher iOS comparison.

Premium average revenue per user is expected to grow 8.1% year over year on an FXN basis, while advertising revenue growth is expected to improve as the company laps lower podcast inventory from last year, with further acceleration anticipated in the second half as self-serve and programmatic channels expand.

UBS forecasts gross margins expanding 160 basis points year over year to 33.1%, and operating income of €634 million for the quarter.

Looking further out, UBS is largely maintaining its 2026 estimates, projecting €19.4 billion in annual revenue, up 14.3% FXN, and gross margins of 33.3%. The bank expects free cash flow of €3.4 billion in 2026, up 18% year over year, and anticipates Spotify will ramp up share buybacks following the cash repayment of its convertible notes in March.

UBS rates Spotify shares Buy and lowered its price target to $690 from $735, reflecting slightly lower EBITDA estimates on higher opex and a reduced forward multiple. The bank pointed to new AI tools and premium tier offerings as potential drivers of deeper user engagement and improved premium conversion over the medium to long term.

, /PRNewswire/ -- Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm, plans to announce second-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, in a news release to be issued at 6:30 AM ET.

Aon's President and CEO Greg Case and CFO Edmund Reese will also host a conference call at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, which will be broadcast live through Aon's Investor Relations website at ir.aon.com. A replay will be available shortly after the live webcast. The earnings release and supplemental slide presentation will also be available on Aon's Investor Relations website.

About Aon
Aon plc (NYSE: AON) exists to shape decisions for the better — to protect and enrich the lives of people around the world. Through actionable analytic insight, globally integrated Risk Capital and Human Capital expertise, and locally relevant solutions, our colleagues provide clients in over 120 countries with the clarity and confidence to make better risk and people decisions that protect and grow their businesses.

Follow Aon on LinkedIn, X, Facebook and Instagram. Stay up to date by visiting Aon's newsroom and sign up for news alerts here.

Investor Contact
Hallie Miller
[email protected]

Media Contact
[email protected]
Toll-free (U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico): +1 833 751 8114
International: +1 312 381 3024

SOURCE Aon plc

Bitcoin has climbed above the $64,000 level after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States has agreed to continue talks with Iran following a new request from Tehran.

Summary

Trump confirmed the U.S. will continue talks with Iran after a new request from Tehran. Bitcoin climbed above $64,000 as markets reacted positively to the diplomatic update. Polymarket still places the odds of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by year-end at just 38%. According to a post by President Trump on Truth Social, Iran asked to resume discussions with the United States, and Washington agreed to continue negotiations. At the same time, Trump stated that the ceasefire was over, indicating that diplomatic engagement would continue despite the end of the truce.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue “talks.” We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!”

The cryptocurrency market reacted positively to the development. Bitcoin (BTC) rose to around $64,100, gaining nearly 2% from an intraday low near $62,000. The move extended the recovery that began after heavy selling earlier this week, when renewed military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran pushed Bitcoin below the $62,000 mark.

crypto.news had previously reported that technical discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials were expected to continue. Trump’s latest statement publicly confirmed that negotiations remain active even as military tensions have yet to fully ease. Alongside Bitcoin, several major cryptocurrencies also traded higher following the announcement.

Bitcoin recovers as diplomatic contacts continue Market sentiment improved after Trump’s latest comments suggested that both sides remain engaged in negotiations despite recent hostilities. Earlier, the president had also stated that Iran wanted to make a deal “so badly,” adding to expectations that diplomatic channels had not completely broken down.

Even with Bitcoin reclaiming the psychological $64,000 level, traders continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely because recent market swings have been closely tied to headlines surrounding the conflict. This week’s decline below $62,000 came shortly after both countries exchanged strikes and Trump declared that the ceasefire had ended.

The recovery also follows several sessions of elevated volatility across digital assets, with investors reacting quickly to changes in geopolitical risk. Although Bitcoin has regained lost ground, price movements remain sensitive to further developments from Washington and Tehran.

Nuclear agreement expectations remain limited Despite the renewed talks, prediction markets continue to show limited confidence that the two countries will finalize a nuclear agreement this year. According to Polymarket data, the probability of the United States and Iran reaching a deal by Dec. 31 stands at about 38%.

Source: Polymarket The nuclear program remains the central issue separating both sides. President Trump has repeatedly maintained that Iran cannot possess a nuclear weapon, while negotiations continue alongside ongoing military and political tensions.

Energy markets remain another source of uncertainty for investors. Iran has maintained that it plans to impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries a significant share of global oil shipments. The possibility of higher transportation costs has kept traders focused on potential disruptions to crude supplies.

Earlier this week, oil prices climbed after Iran attacked three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the conflict and adding fresh inflation concerns. Higher energy prices can increase inflationary pressure, a factor that financial markets often watch because persistent inflation may reduce expectations for easier monetary policy, which can weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

For now, Bitcoin’s move above $64,000 suggests investors welcomed signs that diplomatic contacts remain open. Even so, the market continues to balance improving sentiment from renewed negotiations against the unresolved issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and the ongoing risks to global energy supplies.

THE STREET: Bitcoin treasury company sells 48% of holdings to repay debt

In brief Since May 7, Empery Digital sold 1,400 Bitcoin for about $87.1 million, slashing its BTC treasury by nearly half. The firm repaid $10 million in debt, funded a pending property acquisition, and covered legal costs from ongoing stockholder litigation. As of July 10, the company holds 1,514 BTC and roughly $73.9 million in cash. Publicly traded Empery Digital Inc. has sold nearly half its Bitcoin treasury since early May, using the proceeds to pay down debt, prepare for an AI-related real estate acquisition, and cover mounting legal bills tied to a shareholder lawsuit, according to an SEC filing this week.

The company disclosed it sold 1,400 BTC since May 7 at an average price of about $62,200 per coin, generating roughly $87.1 million in gross proceeds. Of that total, $10 million went toward retiring outstanding debt on July 7. The remainder is earmarked for a previously announced property acquisition—pending completion of a purchase and sale agreement—as well as legal expenses stemming from stockholder litigation disclosed in the company's most recent quarterly report, along with general operating costs.

The $65 million property deal, announced on June 30, is for a “25% ownership [stake] into a private entity that is acquiring a strategically located Midwest facility to be converted into a state-of-the-art AI data center.”

As of Thursday, Empery Digital held 1,514 BTC—currently valued at nearly $96.5 million—and approximately $73.9 million in cash, with $45 million still outstanding on its debt facility, the filing shows.

Decrypt reached out to Empery Digital for comment regarding the sale and whether it impacts the firm’s treasury strategy going forward, but did not immediately receive a response.

The disclosure offers a window into how corporate holders of Bitcoin are increasingly treating their crypto reserves as a liquidity source, selling down positions to meet conventional financial obligations rather than holding the asset purely as a long-term investment.

The most prominent example is Bitcoin giant Strategy’s recent sales from its $54 billion BTC stash, which have been done to fuel dividend payments for its preferred share offerings in an effort to cool concerns around its ability to meet its financial commitments. Such fears had helped tank the price of Strategy’s MSTR common shares and its STRC preferred shares in recent weeks.

The stockholder litigation referenced in the filing was previously outlined in Empery Digital's quarterly report for the period ending March 31, though the company did not detail the specific legal costs in this week's disclosure. The filing does not specify a timeline for completing the property acquisition or resolving the pending litigation.

Empery Digital (EMPD) stock has ticked up about 2% on the day so far Friday, per data from Yahoo Finance, recently trading at $3.87. Shares are up more than 14% in the last month, but down about 15% so far this year.

Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.

The Nasdaq listed company said it sold 1,400 BTC since May 7 at an average price of $62,200 per Bitcoin, generating about $87.1 million in gross proceeds. The sale left Empery with 1,514 BTC and about $73.9 million in cash as of July 10.

Advertisement

The proceeds are being used to repay debt, fund a previously announced property acquisition, cover legal expenses tied to ongoing stockholder litigation and support operations. Empery said it repaid $10 million of outstanding debt on July 7 and still has $45 million outstanding on its debt facility.

The move marks a sharp reversal for a company that adopted a Bitcoin treasury strategy last year. Empery, formerly Volcon, said in August 2025 that it held more than 4,018 BTC and described its strategy as becoming a low cost, capital efficient aggregator of Bitcoin.

The company had already disclosed that Bitcoin sales could be part of its capital strategy. In its annual report, Empery said it had sold 722 BTC for $50 million from January 1 through March 25, 2026, and warned that future Bitcoin sales could affect its results and financial condition.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

New Hampshire Council Votes Down First-in-Nation $100 Million Bitcoin Bond

Bitcoin closed the worst half-year in its recent history near $60,000, down from $93,000 in January and fresh off a 21-month low, and almost none of the damage came from crypto itself. The Federal Reserve and record ETF outflows did it, and the same two forces meet again at the July 28-29 policy meeting that will likely decide whether the bottom is in or another leg waits below. These are the levels, the scenarios, and the honest case on both sides.

Summary

Bitcoin enters July near $60,000, with the July 28–29 Fed meeting expected to determine whether the recent sell-off extends or a recovery begins. The main risks remain hawkish Fed policy and continued spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, while whale accumulation and an oversold market provide the strongest bullish arguments. Key levels to watch are $58,000 support and $63,800 resistance; a sustained return of ETF inflows could signal that a broader recovery is underway. Bitcoin enters July 2026 trading near $60,000, and the number understates how strange the year has been. The largest cryptocurrency began January above $93,000, peaked at $126,000 back in October 2025, and spent the first half of 2026 grinding down to a fresh 21-month low near $58,000 in late June, a decline of more than half from the top.

Bitcoin daily price chart | Source: crypto.news What makes it unusual is the absence of a villain: Bitcoin’s historic crashes came with something breaking, the Terra collapse in 2022, the FTX failure months later, and this time nothing inside crypto broke.

No major exchange failed, no large stablecoin lost its peg, and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve stayed in place. The damage came almost entirely from two external forces: the Federal Reserve and the money leaving Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and those same two forces are set to decide what happens next.

The pivotal event sits at the end of the month. The Federal Reserve meets on July 28-29, and prediction markets put roughly a 70% probability on the Fed holding rates steady, with the small remaining chance pointing toward a hike, not a cut, meaning a monetary rescue for risk assets this month looks unlikely.

Around that decision sits a market that is deeply oversold, largely deleveraged, and quietly being accumulated by long-term buyers even as ETF holders sell, a genuinely mixed setup that supports the range this piece will map rather than a confident call in either direction.

This prediction breaks down the month the way a trader would: the price levels that matter in both directions, the bearish case built on the Fed and the ETF exodus, the bullish case built on oversold conditions and whale accumulation, three concrete scenarios with the triggers that would produce each, the analyst and prediction-market targets worth knowing, and the honest bottom line on a month whose direction one meeting will largely set. None of it is investment advice, and Bitcoin’s volatility means every level here can be overrun by a single headline.

The levels that matter Start with the map, because in a month likely to be decided by one event, the levels around that event are the whole game. Bitcoin near $60,000 sits below its 50-month exponential moving average around $65,600, a marker that has flipped from support to resistance and now caps rallies, while remaining well above its 100-month average near $40,000, which keeps the multi-year structure intact even in the current weakness.

On the downside, the first and most important floor is the late-June low near $58,115, the level that defined the month’s bottom and whose defense or failure is the single most-watched line on the chart. Below it, the $56,200 area marks a Fibonacci support that traders widely flag, and beneath that the picture opens toward the $50,000 to $53,000 zone, which aligns with the most bearish institutional forecasts and would represent the month’s worst-case territory. That lower band also sits near the long-term trendline Bitcoin has only breached during the deepest stretches of past bear markets, which is why a move into it would carry outsized psychological weight.

On the upside, reclaiming the $62,000 to $65,600 zone is the bulls’ first task, because turning that band from resistance back into support would neutralize the downtrend, and a decisive break above roughly $63,800 is the level several analysts cite as the signal that the immediate downtrend has ended. Above that, the 50-month average near $65,600 and then the $70,000 round number are the next hurdles, though reaching them in July would likely require the outside help the bull case depends on.

Held together, the structure is a market pinned below falling resistance and resting on a well-defined floor, waiting for a catalyst to resolve the tension, and the calendar says the catalyst arrives at month-end.

The bearish case: the Fed and the ETF exodus The case for another leg down rests on the two forces that drove the first-half decline, and neither has clearly reversed. The Federal Reserve is the larger one. The new chair held rates steady at his first meeting in June and took this year’s expected rate cut off the table, and the resulting repricing of risk assets is much of what pulled Bitcoin down.

With markets assigning roughly a 70% odds to another hold on July 29 and the tail risk pointing toward a hike rather than a cut, the monetary backdrop offers Bitcoin no relief this month and possibly a fresh headwind, and a hold delivered with hawkish language, or any hint of a hike, is exactly the trigger that could push price back below the $58,115 floor.

The second force is the ETF exodus, and its scale is historic. Bitcoin ETFs posted their worst month on record in June with roughly $4.5 billion pulled, and one major bank cut its 12-month inflow forecast to zero, a stark reversal for the products that drove the prior bull run. Because ETF flows translate directly into real spot buying and selling through the creation-and-redemption machinery, sustained outflows are not sentiment noise; they are actual coins hitting the market, and until that flow turns, one of the largest sources of structural demand is instead a source of supply.

The bearish scenario also carries a wildcard: a treasury company forced into selling. Several corporate holders carry Bitcoin against financing, and a forced sale into a thin, falling market could accelerate a move toward the $50,000 to $53,000 zone, the kind of reflexive downside the first-half drawdown across the broader market already previewed.

The bullish case: oversold, deleveraged, and quietly accumulated The case for a bottom does not rely on optimism; it rests on market structure. Bitcoin is deeply oversold on multiple timeframes, and the leverage that drove the crash has largely been flushed; the forced-selling cascade that liquidations mechanically produce is now spent, with open interest down to roughly $46.5 billion.

That matters because a deleveraged market has less fuel for cascading liquidations, which means another sharp drop would likely require a fresh fundamental trigger instead of more mechanical selling, a meaningfully different setup from the cascade that produced the June low.

Underneath the price, the on-chain picture diverges sharply from the ETF flows, and the divergence is the bull case’s strongest single point. Coins keep leaving exchanges, and whales accumulated more than 270,000 BTC over roughly two weeks around the lows, worth well over $16 billion, most of it moved through the private desks where size trades without moving the price, precisely the pattern of long-term buyers stepping in that has historically marked accumulation bottoms. That split, whales buying the low while ETFs sold, is the defining tension of the current market, and it means the selling has been concentrated in one holder class while another quietly absorbs supply.

For the bullish scenario to play out on price, Bitcoin needs a little outside help: a cooler mid-July inflation report, a return of ETF inflows for a week or more, or softer language from the Fed chair, any of which could let Bitcoin reclaim $60,000 as support and turn the oversold structure into a recovery. The bottoming signal to watch, on this side, is simple and specific: money flowing back into the ETFs for a sustained stretch, which is what a genuine turn in demand would look like first.

The macro backdrop: why a rate decision moves Bitcoin For readers who find it strange that a central bank meeting dominates a Bitcoin forecast, the mechanism is worth making explicit, because it is the through-line of the entire year. Bitcoin trades, in the current era, as a high-beta risk asset: when the Federal Reserve tightens or signals higher-for-longer rates, the return available on safe assets like Treasuries rises, the cost of holding non-yielding assets climbs, and capital rotates out of the riskiest holdings first, with Bitcoin near the front of that queue. The first half of 2026 was a textbook demonstration, and the sequence matters.

The Fed’s new chair took office and, at his first meeting in June, held rates steady while removing the rate cut markets had priced for the year, and the repricing rippled straight through risk assets into Bitcoin, which fell from the low $70,000s toward $60,000 in the weeks that followed.

This is why the July 28-29 meeting carries such weight, and why its likely outcome is not comforting. A hold is the base expectation, but a hold is not neutral when the market had hoped for cuts; it confirms the higher-for-longer backdrop that pressured Bitcoin all year. The dangerous tail is a hawkish surprise: any hint of a hike, or a hold delivered with language pointing to more tightening ahead, would remove the last hope of monetary relief and likely send capital further out of risk.

The benign path runs the other way, through the data that precedes the meeting: a cooler mid-July inflation report would revive the case for eventual cuts, soften the dollar, ease Treasury yields, and give risk assets including Bitcoin room to breathe.

In other words, the inflation print in the middle of the month may matter nearly as much as the decision at the end of it, because it shapes what the Fed can credibly say. Bitcoin’s July is, to an uncomfortable degree, a bet on macro data it has no influence over.

The cycle debate underneath the month Beyond July’s tactical picture sits a larger argument that colors every forecast, and it is worth understanding because it explains the extraordinary spread in analyst targets. Bitcoin has historically moved in roughly 4-year cycles tied to its halving events, with long bull markets giving way to deep bear markets in a rhythm traders have relied on for over a decade. The current drawdown, more than half off the October 2025 peak, would in the classic framework signal a bear market already well underway, pointing toward more downside and a longer winter before the next cycle.

The competing thesis, advanced by some of the most bullish institutional voices, is that this cycle is different because the buyer base has changed. On this view, the entry of ETFs, corporations, and other institutions is stretching Bitcoin’s traditional boom-and-bust rhythm into a longer, shallower, more gradual cycle, one where deep drawdowns like the current one are corrections within an extended bull market instead of the start of a multi-year winter.

The record ETF outflows of the first half complicate that story, since they show institutional money can leave as fast as it arrived, but the simultaneous whale accumulation supports it, suggesting conviction buyers view these levels as an opportunity.

The debate will not resolve in July, but it frames the month’s stakes: if the classic cycle holds, the $50,000s and lower are a waypoint on a longer decline, and if the institutional thesis holds, the current oversold, accumulated setup near multi-year support is closer to a bottom than a beginning.

July’s data will not settle the argument, but it will nudge the evidence one way or the other, which is part of why the month is being watched so closely.

Three scenarios for July Pulling the forces together produces three coherent paths for the month.

The base case is a slow grind with a downward tilt. If nothing decisive changes before the Fed meets, Bitcoin likely chops between roughly $56,000 and $62,000, getting rejected on each push into the low $60,000s and treading water while the market waits for the July 29 outcome. This is the highest-probability path into the meeting, and it resolves only when the Fed does.

The bearish scenario opens below $58,115. A hot inflation report, a hawkish hold or hike signal from the Fed, or a forced corporate sale could break the June floor, exposing the $56,200 Fibonacci support and, if that fails, the $50,000 to $53,000 zone that aligns with the most bearish bank forecast. This is not the base expectation for July, but it is the clearly defined downside if sellers regain control.

The bullish scenario needs the outside help named above. A cooler inflation print, renewed ETF inflows, or a softer Fed tone could let Bitcoin hold above $60,000, reclaim the $62,000 to $65,600 band, and turn a break above roughly $63,800 into the signal that the downtrend has ended, opening a path toward the 50-month average and $70,000. It is the least likely path given the monetary backdrop, but the oversold, deleveraged, accumulated structure means the fuel for a sharp recovery is present if the catalyst appears.

Reading the flows in real time Because this piece keeps returning to ETF flows as the signal that matters most, it is worth being concrete about how to read them during the month, since the daily numbers reward interpretation. The flow data publishes each trading day and measures coins genuinely created and redeemed, but single days are noise, dominated by one fund’s rebalancing or one authorized participant’s book, while multi-week trends are the real regime information.

A single green day after the June exodus means little; a sustained stretch of inflows, a week or more of consistent net creation across multiple issuers, is the pattern that would signal the demand which drove the bull market coming back, and it is the specific evidence a bottom-caller should demand before trusting a turn.

Two caveats keep the reading honest. First, a meaningful share of ETF positions belongs to basis traders holding shares against short futures to harvest a spread, and when that spread moves they redeem mechanically with no directional view, which means some of June’s alarming outflows were plumbing, not conviction selling, and some of any recovery’s inflows will be the same in reverse.

Second, flows lag price around the clock, since the ETFs trade only during US market hours while Bitcoin trades continuously, so a weekend move shows up in Monday’s flow number, not in real time. The practical habit is to watch the flow trend across a full week, weigh it against price action, and treat a durable turn in the trend, not any single print, as the tell.

Alongside the flows, the on-chain accumulation data, exchange balances and large-wallet holdings, provides the counterweight that has diverged from ETF selling all through the drawdown, and the month in which those two series finally point the same direction is likely the month the trend actually changes.

The targets on the table The professional forecasts span an unusually wide range, which is itself information about how uncertain this moment is. On the short-term and bearish side, one major bank’s $53,000 forecast anchors the downside case, and prediction-market data leans bearish, with traders assigning roughly a 68% chance of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 by late July and a 64% chance of $60,000 holding as support, alongside only modest odds, under 20%, of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by year-end.

On the bullish side, one major bank maintains a $100,000 year-end target and frames the sell-off as a buying opportunity rather than a cycle top, and one research firm holds a $150,000 year-end call built on the thesis that institutional ownership is stretching Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle into a longer, more gradual one. Longer-dated model-based forecasts cluster in the high 5 figures to low 6 figures for late 2026 before rising in subsequent years.

The spread between a $53,000 near-term floor and a $150,000 year-end target is the honest picture: the analysts agree on almost nothing except that the second half depends on the Fed and the ETFs, the same two variables this piece has centered throughout.

For July specifically, the base-case targets cluster around $65,600 on the upside if support holds and the low-to-mid $50,000s on the downside if it does not, a range whose resolution the month-end meeting will largely dictate.

What could break the range Because the base case is a range defined by one meeting, it is worth naming the events that could override it before or after July 29, since a month pinned on a calendar is also a month exposed to surprises. On the downside, beyond a hawkish Fed, the specific risks are a hot inflation print that removes the cooling narrative, a forced sale from a leveraged corporate treasury holder into thin liquidity, and any renewed acceleration in ETF redemptions that turns the June exodus into a quarter-long trend.

Each of these is capable of breaking the $58,115 floor independent of the Fed, and the treasury-sale risk in particular is the kind of reflexive, mechanical event that has produced Bitcoin’s sharpest single-day moves, because a holder selling from necessity, not choice, sells regardless of price.

On the upside, the overrides are mirror images: a cooler inflation report that revives cut expectations, a decisive multi-week return of ETF inflows, or a broad risk-on turn in traditional markets that lifts Bitcoin alongside equities. A geopolitical de-escalation or a softening dollar could each do it, since Bitcoin has tracked global risk appetite closely through the year.

The point of naming both sets is not to predict which fires but to frame the month correctly: the range between roughly $56,000 and $63,800 is the default, the Fed is the scheduled resolver, and the list above is the set of unscheduled events that could resolve it earlier or push it further in either direction. A disciplined reader watches the floor, the reclaim zone, the mid-month inflation data, and the ETF flow trend, and lets those four signals, not any forecast including this one, dictate the reading as the month unfolds.

The honest bottom line July 2026 is a waiting month with a hard deadline. Bitcoin enters it oversold, deleveraged, and quietly accumulated, which limits the fuel for another forced-selling cascade, and simultaneously pinned beneath falling resistance by a Federal Reserve that has taken rate cuts off the table and an ETF complex still bleeding, which limits the fuel for a recovery. The result is a market coiled between a well-defined floor near $58,000 and a reclaim zone near $63,800, most likely grinding sideways with a downward tilt until the July 28-29 meeting forces the resolution, at which point the reaction to the Fed, and the behavior of ETF flows in the days around it, will set the tone for the rest of the summer.

The single most useful thing to watch is not the price but the flows: a sustained return of ETF inflows would be the first real evidence that the demand which drove the bull market is coming back, and its continued absence is the clearest reason to expect the grind to continue. Bitcoin has survived a half-year that erased more than half its value without a single structural break, which is either the setup for a base or the pause before another leg, and honestly, the month itself, through one meeting and a handful of data prints, will do more to answer that than any forecast can.

One final piece of perspective for anyone reading this mid-month: the hardest thing about a waiting market is that patience feels like inaction while the range holds, and then resolves faster than anyone can react once it breaks. The levels in this piece exist precisely so that the resolution, whenever it comes, is legible in advance instead of chased after the fact. The floor is near $58,000, the line that ends the downtrend is near $63,800, the scheduled catalyst is July 28-29, and the flow trend is the tell underneath all of it.

A reader who knows those four numbers going into the meeting is positioned to interpret whatever the Fed and the data deliver, which is the most any honest forecast can offer for a month this contingent: not a forecast to trust blindly, but a map to read the month against as it happens.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and you can lose your entire investment. Price levels, forecasts, and the July 28-29 Federal Reserve meeting date reflect information current as of July 9, 2026, and are subject to change; verify current conditions before making any decision. Always do your own research.

After a 2.32% increase over the previous day, Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at $64,380.20 at press time.

The leading cryptocurrency, however, failed to overcome the resistance level at $80k, which it last reached in mid-May, despite the increase.

Even though the four-hour chart’s RSI and MACD indicators, as well as the narrowing Bollinger bands, further imply that the bullish narrative is here to stay. 

Source: Trading View On-chain metrics raise red flags Nonetheless, the data from CryptoQuant’s most recent analysis paints a bleak picture, indicating that Bitcoin is not in a bear market or a confirmed recovery, but rather is in a transitional phase.

On the one hand, conventional U.S. investors are being cautious.

This is because since October 2025, about $10 billion has been pulled out of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, the Coinbase Premium has been negative for 65 days in a row, suggesting that buying demand from American institutions and individual investors is not strong.

Source: CryptoQuant However, on-chain data reveals that new Bitcoin whales are progressively gaining more BTC, as the supply of the cryptocurrency shifts from older, long-term holders to more large, recent investors.

This indicates that although ETF selling pressure indicates a weak market sentiment, big buyers are covertly consuming that supply, which may be preventing further declines. 

Source: CryptoQuant Community backs Bitcoin In fact, disregarding these negative metrics, former NASA researcher Benjamin Cowen pointed out, 

Source: Benjamin Cowen/X Indeed, according to another analyst, there might be a recurrent four-year cycle in Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrency market.

According to the analyst, an anonymous 4chan user correctly forecasted the peak of the Bitcoin market in October 2025, and this prediction is consistent with another independent cycle model. 

He added,

If the cycle repeats, Q4 2026 could mark the next major buying opportunity and 2027 is gets crazy.

Similar to other opinions about Bitcoin, Adam Livingston contends that BTC seems to be undervalued because it is currently only 19.2% above its realized price, which is the average on-chain purchase price of all BTC, as opposed to an average premium of 81.9% in the past.

According to Livingston’s analysis of previous times when Bitcoin traded at comparable valuation levels, all completed historical regimes produced positive two-year returns, with median returns of 41% after six months, 127% after a year, and 621% after two years. 

Source: X Nonetheless, AMBCrypto recently pointed out that better sentiment may have trouble spurring the kind of broad purchasing that is required for a long-lasting recovery until new capital returns to spot markets.

Final Summary Bitcoin price action is showing bullish momentum, but on-chain metrics are raising eyebrows. The community is also optimistic about Bitcoin’s upcoming trajectory. 

Bitcoin neared $65,000 on July 10 as numerous variables combined to fuel the latest upside.

getty

Bitcoin prices rallied on Friday, July 10, approaching $65,000 as a range of factors contributed to the digital currency’s upward movement.

The world’s most prominent cryptocurrency rose to more than $64,600, according to Coinbase data from TradingView. At this point, it had climbed more than 15% after trading at less than $58,000 on July 1.

When explaining these latest price movements, several analysts pointed to multiple variables.

Brett Sifling, wealth manager for Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, was in this camp.

“As always, I think there are a few reasons why Bitcoin has rallied up to the $65,000 level,” he stated via email. “First, it seems to be a relief bounce after the string of bad news over the past few weeks has dried up such as Michael Saylor liquidating some of his Bitcoin stash.”

“Second, I’ve seen some chatter about the newest version of the Crypto Clarity Act may come as early as next week. Regulatory clarity could be another reason for the bounce,” Sifling continued.

“Lastly, the Circle news today that it received regulatory approval to establish its own national trust bank was also largely seen as positive for the entire crypto industry,” he noted, speaking to the company’s recent announcement.

MORE FOR YOU

“A combination of some positive news for the crypto industry, along with a relief bounce, seems to be what’s driving the Bitcoin rally.”

Dave Liebowitz, head of growth at private credit platform Cap, also weighed in, stating that “There are a few reasons” for bitcoin’s recent gains.

“First, the uncertainty around Michael Saylor selling his Bitcoin has largely passed,” he said, referring to the $200 million transaction recently made by the crypto celebrity’s company Strategy.

“Before he sold, the market was questioning whether mounting pressure might force him to reduce his holdings,” Liebowitz noted. “Now that he has already sold, that uncertainty is gone and investors are no longer waiting to see if or when he might sell.”

“That removes a key overhang on the market.”

The analyst cited another causal factor, stating that “In addition, Bitcoin ETFs have continued to see strong inflows, including single-day inflows of $221 million to more than $300 million and $1.347 billion in weekly inflows.”

Stronger Market Sentiment Some analysts took a different tack, with one focusing on the changing mindset of investors when explaining bitcoin’s latest gains.

“Bitcoin’s latest move appears to be driven by a combination of improving market sentiment and renewed risk appetite, rather than any single catalyst,” Himanshu Sahay, cofounder and CTO of crypto lender Arch, claimed via email. “After a period of heightened uncertainty, even modest positive developments can encourage investors to rotate back into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin, particularly when liquidity returns to the market.”

However, he noted that the recent runup may be more of a short-term price movement, stating that “I don’t think this move alone signals a broader trend.”

“Bitcoin has historically experienced sharp rallies within wider periods of volatility, so it’s important not to overinterpret short-term price action. Whether this develops into a sustained recovery will depend on how macroeconomic conditions evolve and whether investor confidence continues to build over the coming weeks,” added Sahay.

“For now, this looks more like the market responding to an improving backdrop than a definitive shift in direction.”

Improving Market Factors Another expert named Julio Moreno offered a perspective that focused on market factors, stating that “Both speculative and spot demand are contracting at much less aggressive levels than last month.”

The chart below helps depict this development:

Bitcoin spot and perpetual futures demand

CryptoQuant

Moreno, head of research for CryptoQuant, added via Telegram that this time of the year may be particularly beneficial for the digital currency, stating that “Positive seasonal factors may support prices during July.”

He noted that “Over the past ten years, July has been one of Bitcoin’s more reliably positive months, closing higher in most years shown. The effect is pronounced in down-cycles: in the bear-market years of 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rallied roughly +20% and +17% in July even as the broader trend stayed weak.”

The chart below illustrates this activity:

Bitcoin's monthly returns between 2016 and 2026

CryptoQuant

Short-Term Outlook Tim Enneking, managing partner of Psalion, offered some input on the price movements of the world’s most valuable digital currency, as well as a short-term outlook.

“BTC continues to struggle to put in a bottom,” he noted via email.

“The channel of lower highs and lower lows continues, although the lows are dropping less each time. (For instance, the most recent on 30 June was only just over $300 lower than the prior low on 25 June.)”

“Against that background, the recent move up to almost $65k is not material,” the analyst added. “However, crossing $65.6k would result in a ‘higher high’ relative to the level hit on 22 June and could be meaningful.”

“Of course, to be convincing, BTC would have to take out the $67.3k lower high hit on 15 June,” he emphasized.

Rep. French Hill wants a deadline. 

One year after the House passed the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, the Arkansas Republican who chairs the House Financial Services Committee used a Fox Business interview with anchor Maria Bartiromo to press Senate leaders for a floor vote before the August recess.

“I’ve encouraged Senate leadership to put it on the floor,” Hill said. “I think if you schedule a floor date here in the month of July, that will cause these final meetings, these final discussions to take place. You’ve got to have a deadline in Congress to get people to move and find consensus.” 

Hill thanked Senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Cynthia Lummis, John Boozman and Tim Scott for working toward a deal, and pointed to the 78 Democrats who backed the House measure a year ago.

Hill’s central argument is that the CLARITY Act would resolve the ethics concerns now used to block it, rather than deepen them. 

Critics point to President Trump’s crypto ventures, including $TRUMP meme coin licensing and World Liberty Financial token sales, which a July 1 financial disclosure tied to about $1.4 billion in 2025 income. 

Hill contends a market framework offers the transparency those critics want. 

“If we passed the CLARITY Act last summer, many of the things that people are expressing concern about — meme coin issuance, co-investment, use of exchange, investing in exchanges — all that would be under a market framework of regulation with clarity, no pun intended, and that would provide a lot of transparency to people that are concerned about the Trump family’s investments,” he said.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Congressman French Hill says lawmakers are going to have a field hearing for the Clarity Act in New York next week 👀

"We’ve got to get this market framework in place to be combined with the GENIUS Act" 🚀 pic.twitter.com/F1b9QpSdQT

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 10, 2026 Clarity Act pairs with the GENIUS Act Hill framed the bill as the missing half of a system that pairs it with the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin law enacted last year. 

“Stablecoin is like a cell phone not connected to a cell phone network,” he said, “and the market framework is in fact that network that we need.” To keep the pressure on, Hill plans a field hearing in New York next week, led by digital assets subcommittee chair Rep. Bryan Steil, to make the case for a market structure.

His push drew support from two other voices in the same Bartiromo appearance. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig warned of “mission creep beyond what’s really critical here” and cautioned that a stalled bill leaves the rules to regulators. 

Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack, a former SEC official, described the measure as “on the one-yard line,” with senators from both parties “working around the clock to get this across the finish line.”

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Coinbase Vice Chair says Clarity Act has bipartisan support 👀

"Democratic and Republican senators are working around the clock to get this across the finish line." 🚀 pic.twitter.com/OvKPU3SHuC

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 10, 2026 The Senate returns July 13 with about three weeks before recess. Prediction market Polymarket prices Clarity Act 2026 passage near 39%, a fall from the prior month’s 74%.

Micah Zimmerman

Micah first discovered Bitcoin in 2018 but remained a skeptic on the sidelines for too long. Since 2021, he has covered crypto and business and now works as a news reporter for Bitcoin Magazine, based in North Carolina.

Litecoin stabilized at around $44 following a moderate pullback, as the cryptocurrency maintained its series of higher lows in recent trading sessions.

Support and resistance levels in focusAnalyst Crypto With Gopal observed that buyers swiftly returned once Litecoin revisited the $43.70 to $43.80 price zone, a level where declines had repeatedly slowed earlier in the session.

The price formation saw a reversal as Litecoin approached resistance between $44.30 and $44.35. Some selling activity emerged at this band, yet the pullback remained orderly and developed into sideways price action that gradually enticed new buyers into the market.

Several green candles emerging at $43.80 signaled a new buying opportunity, allowing Litecoin to rise above $43.90 and suggesting buyers regained short-term control, as long as support levels continue to hold.

Market participants are now closely tracking movements near the $44.20 to $44.35 range. An upward break above this zone is viewed as a signal of further bullish momentum, likely attracting additional buying interest. Alternatively, a slide below $43.70 would call the current bullish scenario into question.

Key LevelRole$43.70–$43.80Support$44.20–$44.35ResistanceLong-term outlook and price targetsAccording to analysis by Crypto King, Litecoin is retesting its former support zone between $40 and $45, which historically enabled the market to recover from deeper declines.

The ultimate price target has been noted at $412.49, with reference to Litecoin’s notable history of large price swings. Past rallies saw increases of 553% and 1,622%, followed by extended consolidation periods.

Since reaching its peak in 2021, Litecoin has moved within a broad accumulation range, marked by lower volatility and increased long-term holding by investors.

The long-term scenario points to a gradual recovery, with a potential rise toward $80 and then a target band of $120 to $140. Surpassing this range could set Litecoin on course for $200 and above if bullish conditions persist.

Despite the controlled movement, a supportive rally paired with the key support zone gives traders reasons for cautious optimism. Should buying momentum persist and the resistance zone be breached, a new upward cycle in the Litecoin market may emerge.

Mini dictionary: Crypto With Gopal and Crypto King are independent market analysts known for sharing technical insights and price forecasts for leading digital assets across major social media platforms.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) continues trading around $1.10 as weekly ETF data through July 9 shows $7.29 million in net outflows that put a nine-week inflow streak at risk.

The Nine-Week Streak Could End TodayXRP spot ETFs pulled in cumulative inflows of $1.48 billion across nine straight positive weeks, including through some of the heaviest price weakness of the year. 

The weekly data through July 9 already shows $7.29 million in net outflows, meaning Friday’s unreported numbers will decide whether the streak survives or snaps for the first time in ten weeks.

Even if the streak ends, the cumulative $1.48 billion in inflows remains intact.

But a first negative weekly close would mark a notable shift in sentiment at exactly the moment XRP is attempting its most technically important breakout of the year.

XRP Holders Are Frustrated With The Kansas Jayhawks Jersey DealRipple’s sponsorship deal with the University of Kansas, placing XRP patches on Jayhawks team jerseys, drew sharp backlash from the XRP community this week. 

While CEO Brad Garlinghouse called it a rare moment where his professional and personal worlds collide, many holders responded with frustration rather than enthusiasm.

One user wrote directly to Garlinghouse: “Why don’t you do what you said you would do with XRP and become the bridge asset of world finance? Stop ding around.” 

Others questioned whether jersey patches served XRP holders at all, with one writing “Sell XRP to the bag holders then spend the proceeds on jersey patches” and another asking “Yo what the actual f yall got XRP on these jerseys but the price of XRP is at $1.08.”

Third Breakout Attempt Carries More Weight Than The First TwoXRP is pressing against the year-long descending trendline for the third time. The first attempt failed at $1.30. 

The second collapsed. RSI bullish divergence backs this third attempt, with price printing lower lows while RSI held higher lows, confirming underlying momentum building even through the price weakness.

RSI now sits at 47.16, recovering from June’s oversold extreme. The full EMA stack remains bearish with the 20 EMA at $1.1119, 50 EMA at $1.1705, 100 EMA at $1.2712, and 200 EMA at $1.4801 all sitting overhead as resistance levels. 

A daily close above $1.1119 would be the first confirmation this attempt is different from the last two. Until that prints, the channel rules still apply with $1.00 to $1.05 as the demand zone floor below.

Image: Shutterstock

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.