RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how Euro sentiment has cooled after optimism around Germany’s debt brake, with political risks and structural headwinds weighing on the currency. The bank notes EUR/USD is already priced for another ECB hike and expects sideways trading near current levels in the coming months, with only a modest upward bias further out.
Euro sentiment cools after 2025 surge"While higher short-term interest rates are currency supportive, the market is already fully priced for another ECB rate hike this year, suggesting that one more policy move is unlikely to offer much support for the EUR. On balance, we expect EUR/USD to trade sideways close to current levels on a 1-to-3-month view."
"Irrespective of this, it is worth noting that the EUR was the second best performing G10 currency in Q2 2025 after the safe haven CHF. This highlights the part the EUR played in emphasising the sharp rise in the EUR/USD in that period."
"The EUR now appears to have lost that momentum and that has clear implications for the outlook for EUR/USD."
"In our view, the market is likely to be reluctant to rebuild large, long positions in the EUR in the months ahead. That said, while the USD has benefited from a resilient US economy, it is RaboResearch’s view that hawkish bets on the Fed are overdone."
"We expect sideways trading in EUR/USD on a 3-month view and a modest upward bias to emerge in the currency pair on a 3-to-6-month view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EURGBP holds within narrow consolidation on Thursday after hitting new over one year low in strong bearish acceleration in past couple of sessions.
The pair is also on track for the third consecutive strong weekly loss, as Sterling continues to benefit from calmer political situation after resignation of PM Starmer (although still with a lot of uncertainty about potential new PM Burnham’s policies and cabinet members).
Strongly oversold conditions on daily chart suggest that bears may pause for consolidation / limited correction, as larger bears remain firmly in play.
Initial resistance lays at 0.8543 (broken Fibo 50% retracement of 0.8222/0.8865) and 0.8553 (broken 100WMA / weekly cloud base) with weekly close below these levels to reinforce broader bearish structure.
Stronger upticks, on the other hand, should stay capped under 0.8600 zone (falling 20DMA / former higher base) to provide better selling levels for fresh push lower.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates modest gains on Thursday, although upside remains limited as renewed hostilities in the Middle East revive concerns over energy-driven inflation and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,102, up 0.66% on the day.
The United States (US) and Iran exchanged another round of attacks overnight. US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social, "This is in retribution for yesterday's bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!"
On Wednesday, Iran reiterated its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz if fresh attacks occur, raising concerns that global Oil flows could once again be disrupted after improving following last month's interim peace agreement.
The latest escalation has weakened hopes for a permanent peace agreement, hurting risk sentiment and keeping safe-haven demand intact for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.00 after touching an intraday low of 100.79.
Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations are providing additional support to the USD. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 63% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on Gold because the metal does not offer yield.
Analysts at OCBC Bank noted, "While geopolitics would normally offer some support for gold, the latest move has worked more through the oil, inflation and rates channel." They added, "Near term, unless oil stabilises or Fed/rates concerns ease, rallies in gold and silver may still struggle to sustain."
Minutes of the Fed's June 16-17 meeting showed officials remained divided on the interest rate outlook, although some saw a case for higher rates if inflation remains elevated.
Technical analysis: Sellers retain control below the Bollinger middle band
On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias, with price sitting below the 20-day Simple Bollinger middle band at $4,135. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.12 remains below the neutral 50 mark, hinting at subdued upside momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 37 suggests a reasonably strong prevailing trend despite the latest consolidation.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band around $4,135, followed by the horizontal barrier at $4,200 and then the Bollinger upper band near $4,326.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $4,000 handle, ahead of the lower Bollinger band clustered around $3,944, where buyers could attempt to slow the current corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Chinese Yuan has remained resilient against the US Dollar despite a stronger Greenback, with USD/CNY holding close to 6.80 as investors weigh China's domestic policy support against robust US economic data.
Goldman Sachs believes the Yuan's resilience reflects structural changes within China's economy rather than short-term market dynamics.
The bank notes that while a stronger Dollar has created headwinds for many Asian currencies, the Yuan has held up comparatively well thanks to Beijing's continued focus on financial self-reliance and currency internationalisation.
According to Goldman Sachs, "resilient CNY" reflects the increasing importance of domestic drivers, even as global markets continue to favour the US Dollar.
The bank argues that China's push to expand cross-border use of the Renminbi, together with steady capital account reforms and continued policy support, should help underpin the currency over the medium term.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that weaker domestic growth has kept Chinese interest rates low, limiting the Yuan's yield advantage relative to the Dollar.
While US monetary policy is likely to remain the dominant short-term driver of USD/CNY, Goldman Sachs expects China's structural reforms and continued internationalisation of the Renminbi to help keep the Yuan relatively resilient despite broader Dollar strength.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has steadied near 1.1425 after recovering from June's lows, although Rabobank believes the single currency has lost much of the momentum that drove its rally earlier this year.
The bank expects EUR/USD to trade broadly sideways over the next one to three months before regaining a modest upward bias later in the year.
Rabobank argues that optimism surrounding Germany's decision to loosen its debt brake has faded as investors refocus on weaker Eurozone growth, higher energy costs and lingering competitiveness challenges.
According to the bank, last year's fiscal shift in Germany "was no panacea", with structural reforms still needed to tackle sluggish productivity and weak long-term growth.
Rabobank also notes that markets are already fully priced for another European Central Bank rate increase this year, limiting the Euro's ability to gain further support from monetary policy.
While the US Dollar continues to benefit from a resilient economy, the bank believes expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening have become excessive and should gradually unwind.
Even so, Rabobank expects investors to remain reluctant to rebuild large long Euro positions in the coming months after the currency's strong performance over the past year.
The bank believes investors will remain cautious in the near term. According to Rabobank, "the market is likely to be reluctant to rebuild large, long positions in the EUR in the months ahead."
However, it also argues that expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening have become excessive. As the bank puts it, "we expect sideways trading in EUR/USD on a 3-month view and a modest upward bias to emerge in the currency pair on a 3-to-6-month view."
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.8% higher to near $4,110 during the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) is down despite a slight improvement in expectations that the next monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be on the upside.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.95 even after recovering over half of its early losses.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates at least once this year have increased to 83.4% from almost 78% recorded a week back.
Hawkish Fed prospects have increased as oil prices have bounced back strongly due to renewed Middle East tensions.
Technically, higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Investors worry that renewed Middle East hostilities will likely be prolonged, as the US military forces have attacked Iranian infrastructure. Earlier in the day, Iranian state media reported that multiple US artillery shells struck a railway bridge west of Aghala in Golestan, triggering several explosions.
On Wednesday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit that our military forces might hit Iran again and would also attack the power and water infrastructure of the nation, if needed.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades higher at around $4,110, but maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,153.16. The metal has been unable to reclaim this dynamic barrier, keeping the broader recovery attempts capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.30 remains below neutral, hinting at subdued bullish momentum rather than a decisive rebound.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,153.16, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive bias. Further, the yellow metal could advance to near $4,200.
Looking down, the precious metal could slide to the October 28 low at $3,886.62 if it slides below the June low at $3,941.76.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
“A jump in oil prices could bring forward the timing of a Fed hike,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
President Trump said Iran reached out seeking an agreement, which cooled the immediate panic, but yields didn’t come back down. The bond market already repriced and gold is stuck with the result.
HSBC Trimmed but Sees a Floor HSBC cut its 2026 gold forecast to $4,560 from $4,864 and dropped the 2027 number to $4,925 from $5,000. The bank expects a $3,800 to $4,700 range for the rest of this year with gold finishing around $4,750. Their reasoning is straightforward: monetary policy repriced, the dollar repriced, and gold corrected from the January record high as a result.
Central bank buying slowed down and ETF money left in the first half. HSBC thinks both reverse later this year. Their bigger call is that the rate and dollar damage is already in the price, and that deficit spending and sovereign debt loads keep a floor under gold from here.
Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis Two short-term ranges are currently controlling the price action.
The first range is $4382.62 to $3942.10. Its retracement zone at $4162.36 to $4214.34 stopped the rally at $4202.71 on July 6. The second range is $3942.10 to $4202.71. Its retracement zone $4072.40 to $4041.75 is currently being tested.
Trader reaction to $4072.40 to $4041.65 is the area to watch today.
Bullish traders are trying to establish a secondary higher bottom. A sustained move over $4072.40 will indicate the presence of buyers. Their job is to create the momentum needed to overcome $4202.71 and change the main trend to up.
Bearish traders are going to try to drive the market under $4041.65. This could be the catalyst that sets up a test of the support area at $3942.10 to $3886.46.
What to Watch Next week is the whole trade for gold. CPI drops first and Warsh testifies after. The sequence matters. A cool inflation print takes September off the table before Warsh even sits down, and gold rallies on the repricing alone. A hot number does the opposite, and Warsh walks into Congress with no reason to push back on 63% hike odds. The bond market is already positioned for it with the 30-year above 5%.
Bulls need the $4,072 to $4,041 zone to hold. That’s the secondary higher bottom. Above $4,202 changes the trend. Below $4,041 and gold drops back to $3,942.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trimming losses on Thursday, and hitting session highs just above $59.00 after bouncing from $57.22 lows on Wednesday. US Dollar’s pullback has given some oxygen to the battered precious metals, although Silver’s broader trend remains bearish, after having lost more than $3 so far this week.
The White metal is drawing some support from a weaker US Dollar following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes. The central bank maintained its commitment to fight inflationary pressures, but a split market committee has left investors pondering the timing of the next interest rate hikes.
Furthermore, Iran and the US have exchanged attacks for the second consecutive day, but comments from US President Donald Trump affirming that Iran “wants to make a deal so badly” suggest that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the $62.50 area
XAG/USD trades at $59.13, retaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds halfway through the last two weeks' range, following a nearly 35% sell-off in less than two months. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) at 45.32 sits in neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, hinting that downside momentum is still in play.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the June 24 and 26 lows, at the $55.60-$55.70 area. Further down, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late June drop, at $51.40, and the late November 2025 lows at $48.64 emerge as the next targets.
On the topside, bulls would need to reclaim Wednesday's highs at $61.00 and the July 6 high in the $62.50 area to ease immediate pressure. In that case, the mid-June highs near $71.75 will come into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.17 per troy ounce, up 1.45% from the $58.32 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 16.76% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.44 on Thursday, down from 69.89 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
GBP/CAD climbed to its highest level in a decade this week, reflecting an increasingly powerful divergence between a Pound supported by fading domestic political risks and a Canadian Dollar facing mounting structural headwinds. Sterling continues to benefit from the unwinding of sizeable speculative short positions built ahead of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, while Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has effectively ruled out near-term rate cuts. With Bank Rate holding at 3.75% versus the Bank of Canada’s 2.25%, the existing yield advantage remains firmly intact. More recently, however, the rally has found an additional and arguably more durable driver: rising uncertainty over Canada’s trade outlook.
The turning point came on July 1, when the Trump administration declined to extend the USMCA at its mandatory trilateral review. Although the agreement remains in force under an annual review mechanism for up to another decade, the decision marks a meaningful increase in long-term policy uncertainty rather than an immediate disruption to trade. Instead of securing another 16-year extension, businesses now face the prospect of recurring negotiations and periodic reviews. That uncertainty could weigh on investment and growth over coming years, reducing the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will need to tighten policy further.
The BoC has already downplayed the inflationary impact of higher energy prices, arguing there is limited evidence that rising oil costs are feeding into broader price pressures. Together, the trade outlook and the central bank’s cautious stance point to a policy bias that is becoming increasingly less supportive for the Canadian Dollar.
Market positioning reinforces that narrative. Speculative bearish bets against the Canadian Dollar have climbed to their highest level since December, while Canada’s two-year yield trades more than 140 basis points below its US counterpart, the widest gap since last May.
Attention now turns to June employment data from Canada due tomorrow, which could determine whether markets further strengthen expectations ahead of the Bank of Canada’s July 15 meeting. Consensus looks for employment to rise by around 10,000 after May’s outsized 88,000 gain, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.6%.
The risks appear asymmetric. A weaker-than-expected report would reinforce the existing bearish narrative by strengthening expectations that the BoC remains firmly on hold or even shifts toward easing eventually. By contrast, an in-line or even moderately stronger report may offer only temporary relief while the broader uncertainty surrounding USMCA continues to overshadow Canada’s medium-term outlook.
Technically, further rise is expected in GBP/CAD as long as 1.8875 support holds. Immediate focus is on medium term rising channel resistance (now at 1.9049). Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 138.2% projection of 1.8017 to 1.8694 from 1.8299 at 1.9235. Break of 1.8875 will delay the bullish case, and bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, GBP/CAD is extending the whole up trend from 1.4069 (2022 low). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.6355 to 1.8912 from 1.8017 at 1.9597.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
DAX Rebounds as AI Optimism Returns Despite Middle East Tensions The DAX, along with its European peers, is recovering on Thursday after Wednesday's sharp sell-off. A rebound in semiconductor stocks, together with a modest pullback in oil prices, has helped stabilise sentiment, although concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to linger.
European equities fell sharply yesterday after renewed tensions in the Middle East sent oil prices surging, fuelling concerns over inflation and weighing on risk appetite.
President Trump's declaration at the NATO summit that the Iran ceasefire was effectively over raised fears of renewed conflict and further disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, despite reports of further U.S. strikes overnight, markets have remained relatively resilient today. This suggests investors continue to view the latest escalation as another setback rather than the beginning of a prolonged conflict. Throughout the crisis, market sentiment has repeatedly swung between optimism over diplomacy and fears of escalation, and investors still appear to expect negotiations to resume eventually.
The improvement in sentiment has also been supported by a recovery in AI-related stocks after reports that China could allow domestic AI firms to access Nvidia's H200 chips. The news has helped revive the AI trade after recent profit-taking, although investors remain increasingly selective ahead of earnings season as questions persist over valuations and the pace of returns on AI investment.
The economic calendar is relatively quiet today. Attention will turn to U.S. weekly jobless claims and existing home sales later in the session before German inflation data on Friday.
DAX Forecast – Technical Analysis
The DAX has rallied from the 2026 low of 21,860 to a record high of 25,920 before pulling back sharply towards 25,000.
The index is currently testing support at its rising trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the 2026 low.
While the price remains above this support zone, the broader uptrend remains intact. Buyers will look for a recovery towards 25,500 before targeting the record high around 25,920.
On the downside, a break below 25,000 would expose the 50-day SMA near 24,750. Below there, attention would turn to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 24,360, which also coincides with the 200-day SMA.
Dip buying and a divided Fed lift gold, but gains could be capped Gold is edging higher on Thursday as bargain hunters return following three consecutive sessions of declines.
The U.S. dollar has eased modestly after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting proved slightly less hawkish than some investors had feared. However, renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to underpin oil prices and inflation expectations, limiting the upside for the non-yielding precious metal.
The minutes revealed a divided Federal Reserve, with policymakers split evenly over whether further tightening would be required. Nine members projected at least one additional rate hike before the end of the year, while the remaining nine expected policy to remain unchanged.
Although the minutes did not materially strengthen the hawkish case, they also offered little support for expectations of rate cuts, leaving markets focused on incoming economic data.
Markets continue to price around a 65% probability of a September rate hike, while renewed geopolitical tensions could keep energy prices elevated and complicate the inflation outlook.
Taken together, that suggests real yields and the U.S. dollar are unlikely to weaken significantly in the near term, limiting the scope for a sustained recovery in gold.
Attention now turns to U.S. weekly initial jobless claims and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, which could provide further clues over the outlook for monetary policy. Developments in the Middle East will also remain closely watched, with any further rise in oil prices likely to reinforce inflation concerns and weigh on gold.
Gold Forecast – Technical Analysis
Gold broke below its symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-day SMA before falling to a low near 3,940, its weakest level since October last year.
Although prices have stabilised, gold continues to trade below its falling trendline as well as both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, leaving the broader technical outlook bearish.
Sellers will look for a break below 3,940 to create a fresh lower low and expose the 3,800 support level.
Any recovery would first need to reclaim 4,100 before bringing 4,200 into focus, where the falling trendline converges with resistance. Above there, 4,370 comes into view, followed by the 50-day SMA near 4,500.
The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency.
Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing Iran to implement the MoU agreement and contain the escalation feeds hopes of a negotiated end to the war and is keeping the Euro from dropping further.
Technical Analysis: Potential bearish flag formation
EUR/USD trades at 1.1435, holding within an upward channel, yet with momentum indicators reflecting a lack of a clear bias. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) keeps wavering around the 50 midline, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flat near zero, altogether hinting at a hesitant market.
Bulls would need to break the top of the last few weeks' trading range, at the 1.1480 area and preferably the channel top, now around 1.1500, to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus towards the mid-June highs near 1.1620.
A break below Wednesday's lows, at the 1.1390 area, would highlight a bearish flag formation that would be confirmed below the June 24 low in the 1.1330 area. The flag's measured target is a few pips below the late May 2025 lows, at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The story was corrected on July 9 at 08:22 GMT to change the title to EUR/USD Price forecast from the previously written EUR/GBP.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.21%-0.16%0.03%-0.14%-0.63%-0.28%EUR0.16%-0.05%-0.02%0.18%0.06%-0.43%-0.11%GBP0.21%0.05%0.02%0.24%0.10%-0.39%-0.05%JPY0.16%0.02%-0.02%0.18%0.06%-0.46%-0.11%CAD-0.03%-0.18%-0.24%-0.18%-0.14%-0.63%-0.30%AUD0.14%-0.06%-0.10%-0.06%0.14%-0.48%-0.13%NZD0.63%0.43%0.39%0.46%0.63%0.48%0.34%CHF0.28%0.11%0.05%0.11%0.30%0.13%-0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive.
Resilience questioned as Fed dominates"On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets."
"EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the view that the ECB is more likely to pull the trigger on another hike in September."
"However, we think the Fed story will be a more dominant theme and can easily see EUR/USD handing back early gains today and sending the euro back below the 1.14 level."
"Could some of the EUR/USD resilience be down to President Trump mentioning Greenland again at the NATO conference? Remember that his threats back in January sparked a backlash against US asset markets from European investors. This link looks tenuous at best."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 09.07.2026 Nasdaq continues selling off
Intraday analysis covering EURUSD(The euro) , AUDUSD , and NAS 100, highlighting recent price movements, key technical levels, and short-term momentum shifts across major markets.
EURUSD remains undecided
EURUSD(The euro) took a break from moving towards more multi-week highs but remains bullish.
The pair has been inching higher and lower since last Friday’s NFP data, which saw a decline in job numbers. 1.1430 is the first hurdle for bulls on the path higher. As the RSI ventures away from the overbought area, the recent bottom could serve as firm support at 1.1340. 1.1550 is the next key level should a bullish extension ensue. AUDUSD stays congested
The US dollar continues to gain traction across the board as risk appetite remains heightened.
The current rebound from the 0.6960 top has kept momentum to the downside. Now that buyers are seemingly out of the picture, the path is mostly clear for a move lower towards 0.6865. However, a push above the latest resistance could lead to another rally, with 0.7000 becoming a psychological resistance. NAS 100 hits another low
The Nasdaq remained pressured after global indices fell lower with fresh attacks in the Middle East.
On the chart, the price is moving towards 28400 as bearish momentum attracts sellers. However, a bullish RSI divergence could indicate a deceleration in the downward spiral and might lead to a pullback if traders begin to close positions. 30000 is the closest resistance at the recent gap, and its breach would send the index towards 30800 to claim another record.
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Gold fell to 4,032 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking its second consecutive day of decline. Pressure on the market intensified amid fears that a new escalation of conflict in the Middle East could disrupt energy supplies and accelerate inflation.
The US military confirmed that it has been striking targets in Iran for the second consecutive day, seeking to limit Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran has announced preparations for a large-scale operation against American military bases in the region.
US President Donald Trump stated that, in his view, the ceasefire has effectively come to an end. He also warned of the possibility of further strikes against Iran and the imposition of an additional naval blockade.
Additional investor attention has been drawn to the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. They showed that only a small proportion of the regulator’s representatives advocated a rate hike as early as June, with most participants remaining concerned about inflation risks.
The market continues to price in at least one Fed interest rate increase before the end of 2026, which limits gold’s upside potential despite ongoing demand for safe-haven assets.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,090 USD level. A decline to 4,018 USD and a subsequent rise to 4,088 USD have been completed. A further move lower towards 3,930 USD is expected, followed by a potential rebound to 4,055 USD, with scope for an extension to 4,150 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,090 USD level and is moving lower towards 3,977 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming around 4,090 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below the 50 level and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating continued downside pressure.
Conclusion Gold continues to decline as renewed Middle East conflict intensifies fears of energy supply disruptions and rising inflation. US strikes on Iran and Tehran’s threat of retaliation have escalated tensions, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire effectively over. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes revealed a cautious central bank, with only a minority advocating an immediate rate hike, while most members remain vigilant about inflation risks. Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike before year-end, limiting gold’s appeal despite safe-haven demand. Technically, further downside towards 3,930 USD appears likely, with any recovery likely to be capped by ongoing geopolitical and monetary policy headwinds.
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USD/CAD moves sideways after two days of losses, trading around 1.4170 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bullish bias.
The USD/CAD is retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds comfortably above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price is pressing against the short-term nine-period EMA, which acts as immediate resistance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 64 stays in positive territory but off extreme overbought readings, hinting at sustained upside momentum with some scope for consolidation.
The USD/CAD pair may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.4182, followed by the primary barrier at the nearly 15-month high of 1.4248, reached on June 24. Further advances would expose the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4400.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4110. A break below the channel would put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3998.
USD/CAD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.17%-0.24%-0.15%0.03%-0.10%-0.54%-0.23%EUR0.17%-0.06%0.04%0.21%0.10%-0.34%-0.05%GBP0.24%0.06%0.09%0.26%0.17%-0.28%0.02%JPY0.15%-0.04%-0.09%0.16%0.08%-0.39%-0.08%CAD-0.03%-0.21%-0.26%-0.16%-0.10%-0.55%-0.25%AUD0.10%-0.10%-0.17%-0.08%0.10%-0.44%-0.14%NZD0.54%0.34%0.28%0.39%0.55%0.44%0.30%CHF0.23%0.05%-0.02%0.08%0.25%0.14%-0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
The British currency has also been grappling with services inflation pressures and slower growth rates that the Bank of England has had to consider. Domestic budget spending and employment developments are crucial to the performance of the pound along with relative policy settings that can affect cross-rates with the U.S. and Europe.
Other factors, such as differential inflation paths, fiscal policies, economic growth levels, trade balances, and capital flows, can continue to drive currency valuations. As central banks respond to inflation pressures, their approaches will shape future developments in the FX markets. For now, the FOMC minutes released today, along with the upcoming data, provide additional market intelligence and could be a determining factor in shaping the trend that currencies are expected to move over the short term.
Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that EUR/USD has traded in a narrow range and appears largely unaffected by Iran-related headlines, as the correlation with Oil has weakened. She highlights that markets now price Fed rate hikes despite softer labour data, reflecting a hawkish FOMC bias and reduced perceived risk of politically driven monetary easing in the United States.
Fed reaction function supports Dollar"EUR/USD appears largely unaffected by the latest developments in the Iran conflict and continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. We had already pointed out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the oil price has diminished significantly."
"In other words, the market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes even in spite of a marked decline in oil prices."
"The fact that rate-hike expectations in the market are nevertheless holding up is mainly linked to a general reassessment of the Fed’s reaction function. And this can be traced back to the latest FOMC meeting, the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh which highlighted two points:"
"A significant number of FOMC members have a bias towards rate hikes. This was confirmed once again by the minutes of the meeting published yesterday evening, which state "Participants generally assessed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained elevated while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had moderated a bit." as well as "In such scenarios [of elevated inflation], almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2 percent."."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up over 1% to near $59.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure despite multiple tailwinds.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 100.80.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.24%-0.28%-0.18%-0.10%-0.18%-0.58%-0.33%EUR0.24%-0.04%0.04%0.13%0.09%-0.31%-0.09%GBP0.28%0.04%0.07%0.17%0.12%-0.27%-0.04%JPY0.18%-0.04%-0.07%0.07%0.05%-0.38%-0.13%CAD0.10%-0.13%-0.17%-0.07%-0.04%-0.44%-0.21%AUD0.18%-0.09%-0.12%-0.05%0.04%-0.39%-0.17%NZD0.58%0.31%0.27%0.38%0.44%0.39%0.23%CHF0.33%0.09%0.04%0.13%0.21%0.17%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
The US Dollar struggles to get support despite renewed high United States (US) inflation concerns amid the restart of the war in the Middle East.
Rising oil prices due to the exchange of attacks between the US and Iran, and strikes on Iranian infrastructure have refreshed global upside inflation risks.
In the FOMC minutes of the June policy meeting, released on Wednesday, the bottom line was that policymakers see inflation as dominant risk and favored monetary tightening moving ahead.
Going forward, the next major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Tuesday.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $59; however, it retains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $62.38. The downside tilt is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 37, which stays below the neutral 50 line but above oversold territory, suggesting persistent selling pressure without capitulation.
On the topside, initial resistance is the round-level of $60.00, followed by the 20-day EMA at $62.38. Looking down, the Silver price could enter a fresh downside leg if it declines below the June 24 low at $55.63.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The US Dollar is trading lower against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, as investors ponder the consequences of reciprocal US and Iran attacks and a 10% rebound in Oil prices, on the major central banks' monetary policies. The USD/CHF pair has retreated to levels near 0.8050 after being rejected at 0.8100 on Wednesday.
The Swiss Franc is drawing some support from a mild US Dollar weakness, as the Dollar Index (DXY) dips below 101.00 to test weekly lows. Investors sold the Greenback across the board on Wednesday, following the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes, unimpressed with the central bank’s commitment to bring inflationary pressures back to target.
Geopolitical tensions are also failing to support the safe-haven US Dollar on Thursday. A second round of reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran cast further doubt on a negotiated end of the war, and have boosted a nearly 10% increase in Oil prices. Investors, however, remain hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, which is keeping USD bulls subdued so far.
Technical Analysis: In a bearish correction from June's highs
The USD/CHF printed a lower high on Wednesday, at 0.8108, confirming that the corrective phase from late-June highs remains in play. Momentum indicators in four-hour charts show a weakening stance, with the Relative Strength Index (14) entering bearish territory at 46.1 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping back towards the zero line, hinting at fading bullish momentum.
The pair is likely to find some support above the July 7 lows near 0.8045, although the key support level is at the 0.8000 psychological area, where the July 2 and 3 lows meet the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement of June's rally.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at July's peaks, in the 0.8110-0.8120 area. A confirmation above these levels would hint at the end of the corrective phase and expose the one-year high, at 0.8139, hit on June 24.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.17%-0.22%-0.16%-0.03%-0.11%-0.50%-0.24%EUR0.17%-0.05%0.00%0.14%0.08%-0.30%-0.06%GBP0.22%0.05%0.04%0.18%0.12%-0.26%-0.01%JPY0.16%0.00%-0.04%0.11%0.08%-0.33%-0.07%CAD0.03%-0.14%-0.18%-0.11%-0.05%-0.44%-0.19%AUD0.11%-0.08%-0.12%-0.08%0.05%-0.38%-0.15%NZD0.50%0.30%0.26%0.33%0.44%0.38%0.25%CHF0.24%0.06%0.00%0.07%0.19%0.15%-0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
BNY Mellon’s Geoff Yu notes that reduced Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations are not undermining the British Pound (GBP). He argues that BoE flexibility around its mandate and reluctance to overreact to supply shocks is not hurting GBP, with consistent domestic Gilt demand and positive real rates offset by international concerns about United Kingdom (UK) growth and politics.
Rate repricing leaves Pound resilient"In the U.K. and GBP’s case, whether rates are the dominant driver is questionable, given the volume of political noise still weighing on the economy. Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey has credited market rate moves with “doing the tightening for the BOE” and appears clearly skeptical of using further hikes to address a supply shock."
"Compared with the ECB, we believe the BOE’s flexibility around its price stability mandate is a deliberate choice that isn’t currently damaging the currency."
"The Monetary Policy Committee can’t fix the U.K.’s structural issues, but it can avoid making them worse. Asset allocation to the U.K.’s equity market differs greatly from the Eurozone due to global exposures."
"Energy-driven supply shocks could even prove beneficial to GBP on the margins. Gilt yields also matter, but our flow data show that domestic purchases have been highly consistent due to positive real rates."
"It’s the international component that’s currently limiting GBP’s potential, mostly due to concerns over potential growth and politics."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate fell sharply on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated interest rate hike and maintained a hawkish policy outlook.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading at NZ$2.3424, down around 0.4% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.350921 (-0.03%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 2.004614 (-0.22%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.568748 (+0.22%)
DAILY RECAP:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) leapt higher during Wednesday’s Asian trading session after the RBNZ announced its latest interest rate decision.
The bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the official cash rate to 2.5%. Markets had expected around a 70% probability of a rate hike, with the decision providing NZD with notable support.
In addition, the bank also indicated that further rate hikes remain on the table. This hawkish tone further boosted the New Zealand Dollar’s appeal.
However, a risk-off market mood saw NZD trim its gains. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran limited the risk-sensitive currency’s appeal.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) struggled to attract support on Wednesday, as a lack of UK economic data left Sterling without much impetus.
The increasingly risk-sensitive British currency weakened against its safer rivals amid a risk-off market mood. However, the anxious tone among investors helped Sterling to recoup some losses against the more risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: New Zealand PMI to Weigh on the ‘Kiwi’? Looking ahead, New Zealand’s latest manufacturing PMI could weigh on NZD on Wednesday night. Markets expect the June index to weaken for the sixth consecutive month and reveal the second consecutive contraction in factory activity.
Meanwhile, market risk appetite could also influence the ‘Kiwi’. If tensions continue to escalate in the Middle East, a souring market mood could weigh on the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar, potentially prompting it to surrender some of its post-RBNZ gains.
As for the Pound, the nominations for the Labour leadership will open on Thursday. If no other candidates step forward to challenge frontrunner Andy Burnham, Sterling may remain stable.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged lower on Wednesday as renewed tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3350, having rebounded from an earlier low of $1.3322 but remaining modestly lower on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.337215 (+0.20%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.140248 (+0.02%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.64579 (+0.18%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) ticked higher on Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate.
Following attacks on shipping vessels in the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week, the US launched retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Tehran also directed attacks at US allies in the region.
Amid these latest clashes, US President Donald Trump said that he considers the memorandum of understanding with Iran ‘over’. However, he also indicated that negotiations could continue.
While an anxious mood prevailed, thereby providing the safe-haven US Dollar with support, lingering hopes that the two sides could continue to pursue peace limited risk aversion.
Meanwhile, the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound (GBP) struggled amid the souring market mood, although losses were limited as investors remained hopeful that the latest tit-for-tat strikes between Washington and Tehran were just a bump in the road.
In addition, the recent fading of political risk in the UK continued to underpin Sterling.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Minutes in Focus Looking forward, the Federal Reserve will publish its June meeting minutes on Wednesday evening, with USD investors eager for any hints from policymakers about the likelihood and potential timing of interest rate hikes.
If Fed officials struck a broadly hawkish tone at last month’s meeting, the ‘Greenback’ could enjoy support.
On Thursday, the attention shifts to the latest US initial jobless claims figure. A forecast rise in unemployment claims could dent USD.
As for the Pound, nominations for the Labour leadership open on Thursday. If frontrunner Andy Burnham looks likely to be the only one standing, Sterling could enjoy support.
Finally, risk appetite may remain a key factor for GBP/USD, with events in the Middle East potentially driving volatility.
The Euro (EUR) keeps treading water right above one-year lows against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday. The EUR/GBP is trading flat in the area of 0.8530 at the time of writing, weighed by rising tensions between the US and Iran and the rebound in oil prices.
In the Eurozone, German Trade Balance data beat expectations with a EUR 19.1 billion surplus in May, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, as exports grew against expectations. The data, however, has failed to provide any significant support to the Euro.
Meanwhile, the US has launched a new round of attacks in Iran, which targeted US bases in Gulf countries in retaliation. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the ceasefire was over, and Crude prices have bounced up nearly10% with Brent Oil hitting the $80 level on Wednesday, after bottoming near $70.00 last week.
Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP bears have lost momentum
EUR/GBP shows a bearish near-term tone, although sellers seem to have lost momentum. The Relative Strength Index (14), now near 28, highlights a bullish divergence, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stabilizes around the zero line, hinting at consolidation rather than a decisive bullish reversal.
Bulls, however, must break above the previous yearly low, at 0.8533 (Jul 7 low), and the top of the descending wedge pattern from mid-June highs, now around 0.8555, to confirm a bullish correction.
On the downside, below the mentioned Wednesday's low at 0.8519, the confluence of the wedge bottom and late June 2025 lows, just above 0.8500, is likely to test bulls. Further down, there is no clear support until the early June 2025 lows, in the area of 0.84100.8863.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%-0.46%0.65%-0.20%-0.03%-0.32%0.38%EUR-0.03%-0.51%0.61%-0.26%-0.03%-0.39%0.30%GBP0.46%0.51%1.00%0.26%0.47%0.13%0.82%JPY-0.65%-0.61%-1.00%-0.87%-0.55%-0.93%-0.28%CAD0.20%0.26%-0.26%0.87%0.30%-0.07%0.56%AUD0.03%0.03%-0.47%0.55%-0.30%-0.36%0.33%NZD0.32%0.39%-0.13%0.93%0.07%0.36%0.69%CHF-0.38%-0.30%-0.82%0.28%-0.56%-0.33%-0.69% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3405 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Fading political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK) provides some support to the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD).
Following the resignation of Keir Starmer in late June, UK political risk has eased significantly. The formal race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer begins on July 9. Frontrunner Andy Burnham is widely expected to become Prime Minister by July 20.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as price sits above the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The pair is pressing the upper half of the recent range, with the Bollinger Bands (20, 2) still widening modestly, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 57.6 suggests constructive but not overextended upside momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band at 1.3470, where buyers could hesitate. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the Bollinger middle band near 1.3300, while a deeper pullback would likely be contained by the Bollinger lower band around 1.3130.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.6935 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower despite escalating Middle East risks and hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the June policy meeting.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% lower to near 100.92.
The attacks on Iranian infrastructure by United States (US) military forces signal that the restart of the war would last long, a scenario that might keep oil prices higher and the appeal of safe-haven assets upbeat. According to Axios, the US Air Force bombed two railway bridges in Iran on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the FOMC Minutes showed on Wednesday that policymakers are concerned about upside inflation risks and several of them see the need to tighten monetary conditions to ease price pressures.
In the Australian region, traders might consider raising hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bets again as Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter has reiterated that the central bank would act, if needed, for inflation to return to target and maintain sustainable full employment.
Lately, traders pared hawkish RBA bets as the Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) has cooled down in the last two months.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades slightly higher at around 0.6936, but maintains a bearish near-term tone as it remains below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6963.
The pair has been unable to reclaim this short-term trend proxy, suggesting that rallies are likely to be capped while price holds under the EMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.46 stays below the midline, hinting at persistent, though not extreme, selling pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-period EMA at 0.6963, which is the first level bulls would need to overcome to ease the current downside bias. Above the moving average, the next resistance for the pair will be the psychological level of 0.7000. Looking down, the June low at 0.6865 is the key support level; a break below that would expose the pair to the March low at 0.6833.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more.
Last release: Wed Jul 08, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: -
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD momentum has flattened, with the Euro expected to trade between 1.1395 and 1.1440 intraday. Over 1–3 weeks, the pair is seen in a broader 1.1360–1.1450 range-trading phase. On a 1–3 month view, a break of the 1.1390/1.1410 support zone would target 1.1210.
Euro-Dollar locked in range phase"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR fell to a low of 1.1407 on Tuesday. Yesterday, we highlighted the following: “Despite the relatively sharp decline, downward momentum has not increased much. However, there is scope for EUR to dip below 1.1390. The major support at 1.1360 is unlikely to come into view. Resistance is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1430 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased.” EUR subsequently declined and printed a low of 1.1390 before recovering to close largely unchanged at 1.1414 (+0.03%). Momentum indicators are turning flat, and today, we expect range-trading, most likely between 1.1395 and 1.1440."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Friday (03 Jul, spot at 1.1430), we highlighted that “the bias for EUR is tilted to the upside.” After EUR fell sharply two days ago, we highlighted yesterday (08 Jul, spot at 1.1405) that “upward momentum has largely faded, and EUR has likely moved back into a rangetrading phase, and we expect it to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450 for now.” There is no change in our view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The USD/ZAR exchange rate rose by a few pips today, July 9, as crude oil prices rose following the new strikes in the Middle East. It jumped to 16.50 on Wednesday and then pulled back a bit to 16.37.
The South African rand softened a bit after the US and Iran restarted their strikes, with President Donald Trump declaring the truce over. As a result, crude oil prices jumped as investors anticipated more traffic disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz.
This disruption will happen at a time when inventories in the US and other countries remain at dangerously low levels. Indeed, Trump noted that worries in the oil market were one of the reasons why he decided to reach a one-sided deal with Iran.
Rising oil prices will make the South African inflation situation worse and push the central bank to intervene. The most recent data showed that the headline CPI jumped 4.5% in may from 3% in February. It has remained above the central bank’s target level since March this year.
In a statement at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum in Portugal, the head of South Africa’s central bank hinted that the bank may be forced to hike interest rates later this year. The bank has already hiked rates to 7% this year, with market participants expecting at least one more.
The South African rand has also struggled because of the ongoing developments in the metals industry. Gold, a key South African export, has plunged to $4,080, down by 27% from its highest point this year. Platinum and palladium prices have also pulled back.
Meanwhile, there are signs that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this year. Fed minutes released on Wednesday showed that the committee entertained different scenarios in the last meeting.
Some members supported a view where the bank started cutting rates later this year, contigent on falling inflation. Others, however, supported hiking rates later, citing the elevated inflation, which has remained above the 2% target for a while.
Fed and SARB policies have an impact on the USD/ZAR pair because of the carry trade situation. The rand normally attracts more demand whenever the SARB is hiking rates as that makes it more attractive.
Looking ahead, the next main catalyst for the USD/ZAR pair will be the upcoming US inflation report coming out next week.
USDZAR chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the USD/ZAR pair has come under pressure in the past few months. It has dropped from a high of 17.25 on March 23rd to the current 16.35.
The pair is now consolidating at the 25-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It also formed a falling wedge pattern, which is made up of two descending and converging trendlines.
This wedge pattern normally leads to a strong bullish breakout. If this happens, the next level to watch will be the psychological point of 17. A drop below the lower side of the wedge will point to more downside.
Gold – Chart Gold Spot is currently positioned at $4,075 on the 2H chart. Following a defensive move off the triple bottom support near $3,959, a mixed group of green and red candles pushed to the edge of the symmetrical triangle resistance near $4,091. Bullish wicks combined with higher lows indicate demand is holding support. RSI remains around 44, showing a neutral bias.
Volume profile shows a strong accumulation region from $4,000 through $4,091. The 50 EMA (50-period Exponential Moving Average) sits just overhead near $4,103. Chart structure continues neutral-to-bullish on the breakout attempt from the symmetrical triangle at $4,091 in the down channel context from the $4,597 highs. Fibonacci confluence supports a short term bottom formation as a higher lows set up continues to develop.
Trade Idea: Buy $4,075 for $4,140, stop $4,091.
Silver Spot Holds $58.27 – Fibonacci 0.236 Defense on 2h
Hello traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of GOLD commodity published in members area of the website. As our members know, GOLD is shoing incomplete bearish sequences in the daily cycle and we have been calling for a decline in the commodity. As expected, the correction unfolded in a clear three-wave structure before sellers stepped back in. In this discussion, we will break down the Elliott Wave forecast.
GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 07.03.2026 The current view suggests that GOLD is forming a recovery against the 4385.35 peak. The price structure indicates that another short-term high could still develop to complete the correction before the next leg lower begins.
The 4385.35 level remains the key pivot, and as long as the price stays below this area, the proposed bearish view remains valid.
Did you know ? 90% of traders fail because they don’t understand market patterns. Are you in the top 10%? Test yourself with this advanced Elliott Wave Test
Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.
GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 07.03.2026 The commodity has reached another short-term high and completed the wave (B) recovery at the 4201 peak. From there, the price has started to show signs of weakness. As long as the commodity remains below this key resistance level, we expect the downside pressure to persist and would like to see further weakness before a larger recovery can take place.
A break below the wave (B) blue low would provide additional confirmation that the bearish sequence is unfolding and that the next leg lower is underway.
Keep in mind that the market is dynamic, and the proposed view may have changed in the meantime. Our member chat rooms are open 24/7 and provide ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members are encouraged to ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time
ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.
Hello traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of GOLD commodity published in members area of the website. As our members know, GOLD is shoing incomplete bearish sequences in the daily cycle and we have been calling for a decline in the commodity. As expected, the correction unfolded in a clear three-wave structure before sellers stepped back in. In this discussion, we will break down the Elliott Wave forecast.
GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 07.03.2026 The current view suggests that GOLD is forming a recovery against the 4385.35 peak. The price structure indicates that another short-term high could still develop to complete the correction before the next leg lower begins.
The 4385.35 level remains the key pivot, and as long as the price stays below this area, the proposed bearish view remains valid.
Did you know ? 90% of traders fail because they don’t understand market patterns. Are you in the top 10%? Test yourself with this advanced Elliott Wave Test
Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.
GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 07.03.2026 The commodity has reached another short-term high and completed the wave (B) recovery at the 4201 peak. From there, the price has started to show signs of weakness. As long as the commodity remains below this key resistance level, we expect the downside pressure to persist and would like to see further weakness before a larger recovery can take place.
A break below the wave (B) blue low would provide additional confirmation that the bearish sequence is unfolding and that the next leg lower is underway.
Keep in mind that the market is dynamic, and the proposed view may have changed in the meantime. Our member chat rooms are open 24/7 and provide ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members are encouraged to ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time
ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Silver Commodity XAGUSD . As our members know, both Silver and Gold are showing incomplete bearish sequences in the daily cycles. Recently SILVER made short term recovery that unfolded as Wave Zig Zag Pattern. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Pattern and the Forecast.
Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Zigzag pattern.
Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are labeled as A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and ideal retracements.
SILVER Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 07.03.2026 The current view suggests that SILVER is forming a recovery against the 71.598 peak. The price action is unfolding as an Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. We can count five waves within the first leg of the correction, labeled as ((a)).
The current structure suggests that another short-term high could still develop to complete the correction as a 5-3-5 pattern. The commodity can reach the 61.90–64.78 area, which represents a potential sellers’ zone, before the next leg lower begins. As usual, this zone was identified by measuring the equal legs of ((a)) against ((b)) using the Fibonacci extension tool. As long as the price remains below 64.78, the proposed bearish view remains valid.
Did you know ? 90% of traders fail because they don’t understand market patterns. Are you in the top 10%? Test yourself with this advanced Elliott Wave Test
Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.
SILVER Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 07.09.2026 The commodity has made another leg higher and completed five waves within the ((c)) leg, as expected. The correction was completed within the proposed zone at 63.29, and we have seen a very decent reaction from this area. Now, we would like to see further downside extension and a break below the red A low to confirm the proposed bearish view.
Keep in mind that the market is dynamic, and the proposed view may have changed in the meantime. Our member chat rooms are open 24/7 and provide ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members are encouraged to ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time
ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.
British Pound strengthens to near 1.3400 as UK political risk fadesThe GBP/USD pair gathers strength near 1.3395 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, bolstered by fading domestic political uncertainty. However, hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and renewed tensions between the US and Iran might support the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the major pair.
Following the resignation of Keir Starmer in late June, UK political risk has eased significantly, lifting the Cable. The formal race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer begins on July 9. Frontrunner Andy Burnham is widely expected to become Prime Minister by July 20. Read more...
British Pound Sterling wins the day and stays stuck in the same trapGBP/USD trades just below 1.3400 on Wednesday, up around a quarter of a percent and once again leaning on the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) that has repelled every advance since the pair clawed back from its mid-June washout. Cable has recovered roughly two big figures from the 1.3150 area in under two weeks, and the reward for the effort is a ceiling it cannot break and a floor it refuses to leave.
The Pound's bid is not homegrown: Fresh US strikes on Iran sent Crude Oil surging more than 6% and dragged Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations up with it. Markets now fully price a 25-basis-point hike by year-end, up from roughly three-quarters odds before President Trump declared the Versailles ceasefire over, and a November move trades better than even. The June hold at 3.75% already carried two dissenters voting for 4.00%, so the hawkish bloc only needs the energy shock to persist, and the Strait of Hormuz is supplying persistence daily. Read more...
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,048.15 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,072.60 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,872.02 per tola from PHP 94,157.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,048.15
10 Grams
80,481.48
Tola
93,872.02
Troy Ounce
250,325.60
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 491.16 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 492.03 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,728.56 per tola from SAR 5,738.97 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
491.16
10 Grams
4,911.40
Tola
5,728.56
Troy Ounce
15,276.77
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,206.19 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,372.48 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 422,302.40 per tola from PKR 424,241.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,206.19
10 Grams
362,055.10
Tola
422,302.40
Troy Ounce
1,126,190.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.62 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid escalating tensions in the Middle East after US President Donald Trump said an interim agreement to end the war with Iran was “over.”
Traders are also on high alert for possible intervention from Japanese officials. “The yen’s current weakness is excessive and fails to reflect the strong fundamentals of the Japanese economy, a misalignment that could prompt major central banks to launch coordinated intervention,” said Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset and overlay at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which together suggest a constructive bullish bias after the recent pullback. Price also remains comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, while the upper band marks the next upside objective as the pair grinds higher; the Relative Strength Index (14) near 50 keeps momentum neutral, hinting at consolidation rather than exhaustion for now.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day MA at 112.55, followed by the Bollinger midline around 112.42 and then the lower band at 111.15, where buyers would likely defend the broader uptrend. On the other hand, the first upside barrier emerges at the June 16 high of 113.55. The next hurdle is seen at the upper Bollinger band at 113.70, en route to the May 13 high of 114.74.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 479.36 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 481.26 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,591.39 per tola from AED 5,613.33 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
479.36
10 Grams
4,793.79
Tola
5,591.39
Troy Ounce
14,910.70
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 532.34 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 534.58 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,209.12 per tola from MYR 6,235.27 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
532.34
10 Grams
5,323.41
Tola
6,209.12
Troy Ounce
16,557.55
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,484.01 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,520.64 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,611.00 per tola from INR 146,038.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,484.01
10 Grams
124,840.10
Tola
145,611.00
Troy Ounce
388,296.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $4,020 area, or a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot in the absence of a notable hawkish shift in the FOMC Minutes and acts as a tailwind for the bullion. However, renewed US-Iran hostilities revive inflation fears and bolster bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase in 2026. This helps limit the downside for the USD and continues to undermine the non-yielding yellow metal.
The Minutes from the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers were divided with regard to the direction of interest rates. The minutes further stated that many participants indicated the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. This comes on top of last Thursday's soft US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and does little to alter Fed hike bets. Fed officials, however, noted that the upside risk to inflation remains elevated and indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2%.
Moreover, traders are still pricing in around a 70% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September. This, along with a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, holds back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets. In the latest development, the US military unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by continuously targeting US military installations and assets across Bahrain and Kuwait. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran was now over.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls, suggesting that any recovery attempt in the Gold price is more likely to be sold into and remain limited. Traders now look forward to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US, which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand. The focus, however, will remain glued to the Middle East saga, which might continue to infuse volatility in global financial markets and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the precious metal.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold bears have the upper hand below 200-day SMA and within descending channelFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and within a downward parallel channel. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.26, having recovered only modestly from oversold territory. This hints that any rebound would face strong resistance at the channel top near $4,247.94.
A sustained break above the channel barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure, ahead of a more robust barrier at the 200-day SMA around $4,492.08. On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel at $3,811.93 emerges as the next significant support, where bulls would be expected to defend the broader uptrend if the ongoing correction extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold and silver have lost the momentum generated by their recent rebounds, but sellers have yet to secure the decisive breakdown they are looking for. Gold’s recovery stalled at 4202.87, while silver turned lower after reaching 63.25. The next move now appears to hinge on a market far removed from precious metals themselves: Brent crude. If oil establishes itself above $80, the inflation narrative that has dominated markets for months could quickly return to centre stage.
Events in the Middle East are moving in that direction. Fresh US strikes against Iranian targets followed attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, while President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire effectively “over” and questioned whether further negotiations were worthwhile. The rhetoric was accompanied by concrete policy action after Washington withdrew the waiver allowing Iran to continue exporting oil. Tehran responded by branding the strikes a treaty violation and signalling it was prepared to respond to further military action. Taken together, the latest developments look less like another temporary dispute within a ceasefire framework and more like the first meaningful signs that the agreement itself may be starting to unravel.
For metals markets, however, the crucial issue is not whether tensions remain elevated, but whether they push oil high enough to change the inflation outlook. A sustained break above Brent’s $80 psychological level, reinforced by a move through 38.2% retracement of 98.99 to 70.14 at 81.16, would suggest investors are rebuilding a meaningful geopolitical premium into energy prices. That would increase the risk that the Federal Reserve will move closer towards rate hikes, strengthening the Dollar and maintaining upward pressure on real yields. In that environment, a decisive break below Gold’s $4000 area and a renewed slide in Silver towards $50 would become considerably more likely.
The charts continue to favor that bearish outcome. Gold remains comfortably inside its descending channel, with 4,202.87 marking the key resistance that bulls must overcome. Until then, a break below 3,942.23 remains the preferred scenario. Firm break of 3,942.23 will resume the larger down trend. Next target will be 50% retracement of 1,614.60 (2022 low) to 5,598.38 (2026 high) at 3,606.49.
Silver is following the same script. The failure at 63.25 reinforces the integrity of the near-term falling channel, while 55.59 remains the key support to watch. A decisive break there would confirm the broader downtrend has resumed and expose the next major downside objective 76.4% retracement of 28.28 to 121.83 at 50.26.
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EUR/JPY pares steadies after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 185.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the moving averages, with a nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) moving above a 50-day EMA, suggesting a bullish shift in momentum.
The EUR/JPY cross also sits over the session Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, hinting that buyers retain control as long as these supports are defended.
Daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross is positioned on the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.60, signaling an imminent bullish breakout. It shows that buyers are aggressively pushing the price up, testing a breakout. A decisive close above this line confirms the breakout, typically triggering a sharp rally toward the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, primary support lies at the VWAP at 185.28, followed by the nine-day EMA at 185.13 and the 50-day EMA at 184.99. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.05%-0.08%-0.07%-0.04%-0.40%-0.14%EUR0.08%0.03%-0.02%0.01%0.06%-0.29%-0.05%GBP0.05%-0.03%-0.04%-0.02%0.03%-0.32%-0.08%JPY0.08%0.02%0.04%0.00%0.08%-0.30%-0.04%CAD0.07%-0.01%0.02%-0.00%0.06%-0.30%-0.06%AUD0.04%-0.06%-0.03%-0.08%-0.06%-0.35%-0.11%NZD0.40%0.29%0.32%0.30%0.30%0.35%0.24%CHF0.14%0.05%0.08%0.04%0.06%0.11%-0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Silver price (XAG/USD) inches higher after three days of losses, trading around $58.30 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. The price of non-yielding white metal could drop even further as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are sparking fears of energy-driven inflation, which will likely push the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer to bring prices down.
The US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that an interim agreement to end the conflict with Iran was officially "over," stoking concerns that a renewal of war could again drive inflation and push up interest rates. Trump also threatened a second day of airstrikes and vowed to reimpose a US naval blockade in retaliation for recent attacks on oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The minutes of the Fed’s June 16-17 meeting released Wednesday showed that a few policymakers said there was a case for hiking rates, though they ultimately supported the decision to leave rates on hold. The minutes reflected growing concern among Fed officials over inflation just as worries about the labor market slightly receded. Swap traders are now pricing the likelihood of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting at more than 30%, up from less than 20% last Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.8036 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8077 and 6.7978 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Spot Gold (XAUUSD) continues to exhibit an incomplete bearish sequence from the January 29 peak, with potential downside extending toward the $3400 area. The decline from the April 17 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Within this formation, wave ((W)) concluded at $4023.1, while wave ((X)) terminated at $4382.45. The market has since entered wave ((Y)), which is progressing as a zigzag. In this subdivision, wave (A) ended at $3942.43, and wave (B) completed at $4203.26, as illustrated in the one‑hour chart.
The yellow metal has now turned lower in wave (C), which is expected to subdivide into five waves. From below wave (B), the initial decline in wave 1 ended at $4021.52. A corrective rally in wave 2 is currently in progress, retracing the cycle from the July 6, 2026 peak before the broader decline resumes. The structure suggests that the corrective phase will remain limited as long as the pivot at $4203.26 holds. Under this condition, rallies are anticipated to fail in either three or seven swings, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
The broader implication is that the incomplete sequence from January continues to favor additional weakness. The technical framework highlights the potential for sustained downside pressure, with the $3400 region serving as a key target if the bearish cycle extends without truncation.
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Fresh US strikes reignite Hormuz disruption fears Europe's energy vulnerability back in focus Euro and European cyclicals resume underperforming Bearish wedge points to renewed downside risk Back to pricing energy risk The US has resumed strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect that markets may once again have to price the risk of prolonged disruption to one of the world's most important energy chokepoints.
As Donald Trump declares the memorandum of understanding signed only weeks ago between the US and Iran "over", so too may be the brief respite for the euro, reviving simmering fears over energy security.
While it's too early to know whether the Strait will face prolonged disruption, the prospect alone is enough to remind investors that the region remains far more exposed to Middle Eastern energy shocks than the United States.
Even if higher energy prices increase the odds of another ECB rate hike later this month, the potential hit to growth may prove the more important driver, tilting the balance of risks for the euro and European assets to the downside, as shown in the chart below.
Europe left behind
Source: TradingView
The left-hand panel tracks EUR/USD since the Friday before the initial US strikes on Iran in late February. Alongside it is the performance of Euro Stoxx 600 futures relative to Russell 2000 futures over the same period. The latter were chosen because both are broader, more cyclical equity benchmarks, avoiding the outsized influence that mega-cap tch companies exert on US indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Since the conflict began, the euro has weakened while European equities have generally underperformed comparable US peers. To be sure, geopolitics is far from the only driver behind that divergence, but Europe's greater reliance on imported energy makes it far more vulnerable, impacting economic sentiment and capital flows.
However, while Trump's declaration that the MOU is "over" has revived geopolitical risk, traders are unlikely to price in the worst case scenario immediately. Throughout the conflict, markets have repeatedly lurched between reports of imminent de-escalation and renewed hostilities, whether from Trump himself or sources familiar with the negotiations.
The prolonged whipsawing may temper any immediate knee-jerk reaction, with trader instead likely to demand clearer evidence that the latest escalation will have a lasting impact on energy supplies and European economy. Rather than a single sharp move, EUR/USD may instead be vulnerable to a gradual grind lower, punctuated by bouts of volatility as markets once again find themselves playing headline hockey.
Technicals and fundamentals align
Source: TradingView
When you zoom out, the price action continues to favour the bears with EUR/USD carving out a series of lower highs and lower lows. It also remains beneath its key medium and longer-term moving averages, all of which are now starting to roll over and carry a negative slope.
And when you zoom in, the price appears to be sitting in what resembles a rising wedge, a pattern typically associated with bearish continuation. Admittedly, the structure isn't the cleanest, but a sustained break beneath wedge support would increase the risk of a retest of the lows set in June, and potentially an extension of the broader bearish trend.
If that scenario were to unfold, the first level to watch is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025 advance at 1.1355, followed by the June 24 swing low at 1.1325. Should that latter level give way, there's not a lot of meaningful technical support to speak of until 1.1200, an area that repeatedly influenced price action following the Liberation Day tariff announcement in April 2025.
On the topside, the pair has repeatedly struggled above 1.1450, with another minor resistance zone sitting around 1.1480. Above there, 1.1500 and 1.1566 are the levels to watch.
The story from the oscillators is one of diminishing downside strength, not building upside momentum. RSI has lifted from oversold territory but, at around 42, remains below the midpoint and looks close to breaking the very shallow uptrend it's been sitting in over recent weeks. MACD has crossed above its signal line, but that merely suggests downside momentum has eased rather than been eradicated altogether. For now, that continues to favour selling into strength.
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to around $4,075 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its downside as US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran has ended, stoking concerns that a renewal of war could again drive inflation and push up interest rates.
Reuters reported on Thursday that Trump stated that an interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran was "over." Additionally, US President threatened to bomb Iran for a second day and reimpose the US naval blockade in retaliation for attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
"The main factor for today's move is the increased escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with a potential ceasefire over, we've seen risk assets across the board trade lower, gold included," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
Renewed tensions between the US and Iran raise energy-driven inflation fears and could reinforce expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates higher for longer to combat stubborn inflation. This, in turn, could weigh on gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
Swap traders are now pricing the likelihood of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting at more than 30%, up from less than 20% last Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The minutes of the Fed’s June 16-17 meeting released Wednesday showed a few policymakers said there was a case for hiking rates, though they ultimately supported the decision to leave rates on hold. The minutes reflected growing concern among Fed officials over inflation just as worries about the labor market slightly receded.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
At the end of June, I outlined the potential for gold to bounce from the $4,000 level. While there was, of course, the obligatory noise around that key support, bulls eventually gained some traction, with gold rising 6.6% from last week's low to Friday's high. Although prices have since pulled back, XAU/USD continues to hold above its recent cycle lows, leaving bulls to ponder whether another leg higher could still unfold.
View related analysis:
Gold Price Rebound? Futures Positioning Signals Support Above 4,000 AUD/USD Outlook 2026: Key Drivers for the Australian Dollar in Q3 FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar, EUR, GBP, JPY | COT Report Crude Oil Finds Support at Its Pre-War Close, Gold Bounces and USD Retreats Why Gold Bulls May Still Have the Upper Hand Gold Finds Support as Oil Rebounds and US Dollar Rally Fades It was encouraging to see WTI crude oil prices also bounce from the support level I highlighted last week. Oil prices had fallen 44% from their post-war spike, printed their smallest bearish weekly candle in more than four months, yet consistently held above their pre-war close with near perfection. Crude oil prices have risen by as much as 13% from last week's low as President Trump once again verbally attacks Iran, making it easy work for bulls after an extended selloff into a key support level.
Gold's price action is more nuanced for bulls, but they may still have a case for a cheeky bounce higher, at least over the near term.
Net-long exposure to the US dollar may be nearing a sentiment extreme, which I outlined again in my weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. Bulls have also lost a little momentum on the US dollar index rally, which is helping gold hold above 4,000 for now.
Source: NYMEX, ICE, IMM, CFTC (COT)
Gold Seasonality Favors Bulls in July and August July tends to offer a slight seasonal advantage for bulls, with data since 2000 showing average and median returns of around 1% and a 56% win rate. Among those bullish Julys, the average gain has been 3.8%. August seasonality is even stronger, with a 64% win rate, average and median returns of around 2%, and an average gain of 4.3% during bullish months.
Source: LSEG
Gold's Daily July Seasonality Points to a Bullish Window Seasonal patterns may not provide a roadmap for the future, but they can highlight tendencies in price action during quieter periods that are not overshadowed by major economic or geopolitical drivers. With volatility seemingly lower for now and markets seeking a fresh catalyst, perhaps seasonality can play out in the weeks ahead. On that note, gold's daily returns during July also show that 8–13 July tend to deliver positive average returns alongside mostly favourable win rates. Extra caution is warranted when interpreting daily seasonality data, but the pattern is at least worth highlighting.
Source: LSEG
Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis Daily Chart: Gold Bulls Eye a C-Wave Recovery The daily chart shows that while gold remains in a downtrend, it has staged a countertrend rally. The question now is whether bulls have enough fuel in the tank for another leg higher as part of a potential ABC correction. The 20-day EMA continues to cap prices as resistance and momentum has turned lower, yet Wednesday's wide-legged doji suggests bears may already be losing their grip. The fact that this has occurred above 4,000, while gold has entered a period of the month with a slight bullish seasonal tailwind, adds weight to the case for another move higher over the near term as part of the 'C' wave of an ABC correction.
1-Hour Chart: Volume Still Needs to Confirm the Bounce The 1-hour chart shows Wednesday's low respected last week's volume point of control (VPOC), adding further weight to the case for a potential swing low. That said, volumes during the recent bounce from those lows have declined, suggesting a lack of bullish participation. Bulls may therefore want to remain on guard for a pullback within yesterday's range today.
Source: LSEG
My near-term bias remains bullish while gold holds above the recent swing lows, and with Wednesday's doji forming above 4,000, bulls may be preparing to make their next move. A bullish divergence formed on the daily RSI (14) heading into the swing lows, suggesting the mature bearish trend has been losing momentum. Note that the 200-day and 50-day EMAs sit near the June volume point of control (VPOC), just above the 4,300 handle. A 100% projection of Wave A from the assumed Wave B low lands near the 4,300 handle. With a notable cluster of resistance between 4,300 and 4,340, bears may also be lurking to capitalise on any such bounce with a view to taking gold back below 4,000. View the full economic calendar
