MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that European Central Bank (ECB) minutes added little new information but confirmed openness to another rate hike, consistent with MUFG’s call for a 25bp move in September. Despite the Euro being July’s weakest G10 currency, a turning 2-year yield spread and potential US yield declines could support renewed EUR/USD upside in coming weeks.
ECB stance and yields guide Euro outlook"The ECB will be certainly less concerned over longer-term inflation expectations becoming un-anchored with the 5y5y inflation swap rate having declined since the initial ceasefire was agreed."
"If crude oil and/or natural gas prices were to rebound sharply then risks will rise of course but at this point longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored."
"In that context we see continued risks of the ECB acting again consistent with our current forecast of another 25bp hike in September."
"The euro is currently the worst performing G10 currency in July but the 2-year yield spread has started to turn in favour of some moderate EUR/USD recovery."
"We continue to see risks of US yields turning lower that should reinforce renewed upward momentum for EUR/USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.47 per troy ounce, down 0.86% from the $59.98 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 16.34% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.90 on Friday, up from 68.75 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The US Dollar (USD) holds losses below 161.75 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday following a 100-pip reversal earlier on the day. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama announced a plan to boost pension funds’ investment in domestic assets, which sent the Yen surging across the board during the Asian trading session.
Katayama said on Friday that the government wants the giant Japanese pension funds, which manage more than USD 1.8 trillion in assets, to redirect their investment into the domestic market. The market has seen this plan as more effective than interventions to support the Yen, and the immediate reaction was a strong JPY recovery.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains moderately soft, amid rumours that Qatar and Pakistan are working to bring US and Iran back to the negotiating table. Beyond that, the release of the minutes of June’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, released on Wednesday, showed a split committee on interest rates, which cast doubt over the timing of the next hike, and added pressure on the USD.
Technical Analysis: Dollar bears are gaining momentum
USD/JPY trades at 161.70, with bulls capped below a previous support area at 161.75 so far. The loss of momentum is evident following Friday's reversal, with the four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) slipping toward the low-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turning slightly negative.
Downside attempts, so far, have been contained near 161.30, which keeps the key 160.50 support area (July 2 low) out of sight for now. On the topside, bulls would need to breach the mentioned resistance area around 161.75 and Thursday's lows at 162.30 to look at the 40-year high, at 162.84, again.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.02%-0.03%-0.47%-0.00%-0.02%-0.18%-0.07%EUR0.02%-0.01%-0.46%0.02%-0.02%-0.17%-0.05%GBP0.03%0.01%-0.46%0.03%-0.01%-0.16%-0.05%JPY0.47%0.46%0.46%0.48%0.46%0.27%0.39%CAD0.00%-0.02%-0.03%-0.48%-0.03%-0.19%-0.08%AUD0.02%0.02%0.01%-0.46%0.03%-0.16%-0.07%NZD0.18%0.17%0.16%-0.27%0.19%0.16%0.10%CHF0.07%0.05%0.05%-0.39%0.08%0.07%-0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has edged lower towards 1.4160 this week as the Canadian Dollar modestly outperformed most of its major peers.
Scotiabank believes the outlook for the Canadian Dollar is beginning to improve as interest-rate spreads stabilise and economic data become less negative.
The bank notes that recent Canadian data have consistently come in slightly ahead of expectations, helping narrow the gap between US and Canadian economic surprises.
According to Scotiabank, "a lot of bad news is already factored into the CAD at current pricing", leaving "little or no room for additional losses."
The bank also points to softer demand for US Dollar upside protection, suggesting investor sentiment has become less bearish towards the Canadian Dollar.
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank believes USD/CAD remains in a consolidation phase. While the US Dollar is still heavily overbought, the bank expects the 1.4250-1.4300 region to provide firm resistance.
A break below 1.4150 would strengthen the case for a deeper pullback towards the important 1.4075-1.4080 support zone.
Scotiabank believes stabilising interest-rate differentials and improving domestic data should provide a firmer foundation for the Canadian Dollar after a difficult first half of the year.
The USD/CAD pair stages a modest intraday recovery from the 1.4135 area, or a three-week low touched this Friday, and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the early European session. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.4160 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders now look forward to Canadian monthly employment details for a fresh impetus.
In the meantime, a weaker tone around Crude Oil prices undermines the commodity-linked Loonie. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, bounces off over a one-week low amid prospects of at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 and concerns about a fresh escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This, in turn, assists the USD/CAD pair in attracting some buyers at lower levels.
From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, an intraday break below the lower boundary of a three-week-old trading range, near the 1.4150 area, could be seen as a key trigger for the USD/CAD pair. However, the lack of follow-through warrants caution before positioning for further losses.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 line near 43. Momentum indicators together hint at subdued upside momentum and leaving the path of least resistance tilted to the downside. Hence, any further recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and is more likely to fizzle out rather quickly.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 100-period SMA around 1.4190. A clear break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and allow a recovery toward the trading range resistance, near mid-1.4200s, or the highest level since April 2025, touched last month. On the downside, 1.4100 now could act as an immediate support ahead of 1.4025 and the 1.4000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate, released by Statistics Canada, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force as a percentage. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market and a weakening of the Canadian economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Let’s dial it back a notch and talk about the trend. The trend is down according to my swing chart and the moving averages so traders are still in “sell the rally” mode. The last completed swing down was $71.56 to $55.60. The rally to $63.28 stopped just short of its 50% level at $63.58. Three days of selling pressure this week turned $63.28 into a new swing top.
The last completed swing up is $55.60 to $63.28. Its retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53 is currently being tested. This is our battle ground. Aggressive counter-trend traders may be trying to establish a secondary higher bottom inside this zone. They aren’t trying to pick a bottom. They are trying to establish a new long position because they have a lean or an exit under $55.60, in case they are wrong. At the same time, aggressive trend traders are trying to overcome the buyers and push the market lower in an effort to continue the downtrend under the swing bottom at $55.60.
Our entire focus on Friday will be on the price action and order flow around $59.44 to $58.53. It is going to tell us if the buyers or sellers are winning the battle. If the buyers come out ahead then look for new money and shorts to push the market higher through 50% of the all-time high at $60.83, and eventually the swing top at $63.28 and the 50% level at $63.58. If successful, this could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the 50-day MA at $69.95 and the 200-day MA at $70.19.
The bullish scenario will likely fail if sellers regain control and drive the market through $57.22. In this case, momentum will increase to the downside and $55.60 will hit the radar.
The key is the volume. Trend traders don’t really need big volume to continue the move, but counter-trend buyers do.
What to Watch The July 28-29 FOMC meeting is still three weeks away and the market has already priced in a hold. The real fight is September and next week’s CPI is going to tell traders whether the hike probability is justified or overcooked. Treasury yields and the dollar are not coming down unless the inflation data give the committee a reason to stand pat. The rate trade is running silver right now and the bulls are waiting for a catalyst that has not shown up.
The retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53 is the battleground. A higher bottom inside that zone keeps the door open to the all-time 50% level at $60.83 and eventually the swing top at $63.28. Losing $57.22 breaks the structure and puts $55.60 back in play.
The euro has also been struggling to navigate mixed economic activity throughout the Eurozone, and in addition, the ECB is trying to achieve price stability. As countries continue to have varying fiscal positions and inflation rates, they are impacting the way that monetary policy affects each country differently. For the euro, that translates into being vulnerable to data releases on economic activity and wage increases.
Sterling faces the same challenge of balancing between the Bank of England’s concerns over services inflation and the economy’s slowing pace. In the UK, there continues to be domestic fiscal policy and labor markets that will remain important factors in the pound’s performance. On top of that, policy decisions of the other two central banks will impact the currency pair prices.
These currencies’ fundamentals reflect that their divergence is going to remain intact for some time to come. Inflation levels, fiscal policy choices, and economic growth vary from country to country in terms of pace and resilience. As a result, two-way risks remain prevalent in these currencies and will persist. These countries’ differences will play out in the currencies’ trade balances and capital movements, in addition to the central banks’ capabilities to stabilize growth.
USDJPY (The yen) bounced against the dollar after finding resistance at the 162.75 level.
• The latest move above 162.50 has prompted some buyers to cover and could pave the way for a bearish continuation.
• A move below 162.00 would confirm the downward skew and attract more bears in the hope of a further extension.
• 161.60 is the next target lower, which could again test the firm double bottom at 160.80.
NZDUSD propels higher
The New Zealand dollar kept its composure after jumping over 100 pips in yesterday’s session.
• The pair moved higher as the recent greenback sell-off signalled an ongoing rhetoric that the Fed will cut rates soon.
• 0.5700 is the closest support to see if there is any renewed interest in the greenback.
• On the flip side, a break above 0.5780 would give the Kiwi an extension, for a charge towards the recent peak at 0.5860.
US30 finds support
The Dow remains buoyant as prices attempt to recover as many losses as possible.
• Since a confirmation bounce around 52200, a slight increase in value followed by stiff consolidation has seen a top at 52600.
• A move past the said price will provide the next bullish signal as buyers hope for a test back towards 53000.
• On the downside, 52200 is firm support, and 52000 is the bulls’ second layer of defence.
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Gold – Chart Gold Spot is $4,114 on the 4h chart. Gold is trading above support at the triple bottom of 3,959, as mixed red and green candles broke out through the symmetrical triangle resistance trend line near 4,091. The candle formation shows buyers are stepping in at key support. RSI was near 51, which signals a neutral market. Volume profile shows that most trades have been near 4,000 to 4,091, which forms a base for buyers. Support now is near 4,115 on EMA 50.
The trend remains neutral-to-bullish as Gold holds at key support. Support from Fibonacci confluence areas should provide stability to the precious metals for now as the 4h candlestick formation prints out higher lows.
Trade Idea: Buy gold at 4,114; stop 4,091, target 4,140.
ING’s Francesco Pesole writes that Middle East tensions have modestly re-tightened EUR/USD short-term swap rate differentials by around 10bp, though the spread remains wider than pre-war levels. While this supports expectations for a potential September European Central Bank (ECB) hike, Pesole argues the path for a stronger EUR/USD is limited and warns of downside risks, including a possible retest of 1.140.
Rate spreads support but risks linger"We expect stabilisation today – with markets potentially wanting to wait for weekend clarity – but risks are of a retest of 1.140."
"While all this is injecting new confidence into previously dwindling expectations for a September ECB hike, the path for EUR/USD to come out stronger from this re-escalation is quite narrow."
"The Middle East military re-escalation has prompted a moderate re-tightening in EUR/USD short-term swap rate differentials. In the two-year tenor (often the best correlated with FX moves), that has been worth roughly 10bp."
"That spread is still 50bp wider than its April peak, when markets bet heavily on ECB tightening but not on the Fed’s, but only 15bp wider than before the war."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
According to UOB’s Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD’s sharp rebound has left scope to test major resistance at 1.3445, though a clear break is seen as unlikely in the near term. Short-term support lies at 1.3390 and 1.3360. Over one to three weeks, strengthened momentum could open 1.3480 if 1.3445 gives way, while broader ranges dominate over months.
Pound testing key resistance band"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP fell to 1.3315 on Wednesday and then rebounded strongly. When GBP was at 1.3390 in the early Asian session yesterday, we highlighted that “the sharp rebound appears to be overdone, but there is a chance for GBP to test 1.3420 before the risk of a pullback increases.” We added, “the major resistance at 1.3445 is unlikely to come into view.” GBP then rose to 1.3430, pulled back to 1.3381 before moving back up to close at 1.3409 (+0.14%). While there has been no clear increase in upward momentum, there is a chance for GBP to test the major resistance at 1.3445. A clear break above this level is unlikely. Support is at 1.3390."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Tracking our positive GBP view from late last month, we highlighted yesterday (09 Jul, spot at 1.3390) that “while the risk remains on the upside, given that there has been no further increase in upward momentum, it is left to be seen if GBP can reach 1.3445.” GBP subsequently rose to a high of 1.3430. Upward momentum has strengthened somewhat, and should GBP break above 1.3445, the next level to watch is 1.3480. On the downside, a breach of 1.3360 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3315 yesterday) would indicate that GBP is not advancing further."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded around 1.3431 on Friday, extending its recovery to fresh one-year highs as Sterling continued to outperform while the US Dollar remained under pressure.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.343026 (+0.13%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.144055 (+0.07%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 161.53132 (-0.52%)
DAILY RECAP:
GBP/USD climbed for a third consecutive session, with the pair moving above 1.34 after briefly dipping below 1.3350 earlier in the week.
Sterling has continued to benefit from a combination of easing political uncertainty and expectations that the Bank of England will remain cautious over the pace of future rate cuts.
Recent UK data has been mixed, but inflation remains above target and investors continue to believe policymakers will be reluctant to ease policy aggressively.
In its latest FX briefing, ING argued that Sterling is increasingly taking its direction from domestic developments rather than simply following moves in global bond markets.
The US Dollar, meanwhile, has struggled to regain momentum.
Although the Federal Reserve minutes showed policymakers remain divided over the outlook for interest rates, investors have become less convinced that US rates will move materially higher this year. Broader risk appetite has also improved following a tentative easing in Middle East tensions, reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
MUFG said in its latest market commentary that the Dollar remains vulnerable while positioning continues to unwind and investors rotate back into higher-beta currencies.
Scotiabank also highlighted that recent Dollar weakness has been driven more by changing market positioning than by any fundamental deterioration in the US economy.
With Sterling finding domestic support and the Dollar losing some of its defensive appeal, GBP/USD has reached its highest levels since last summer.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Activity Data and Fed Speakers in Focus For Pound Sterling, with nothing on the calendar for Friday, attention will turn to next Tuesday's final first-quarter UK GDP estimate, together with manufacturing production, industrial production and trade balance figures.
Investors will also be listening closely to comments from Bank of England policymakers for any fresh clues on the timing of future rate cuts.
For the US Dollar, markets will focus on Federal Reserve speakers, including policymakers due to speak after the release of the latest FOMC minutes, alongside US CPI inflation expectations and consumer sentiment updates later in the week.
Investors will also continue to monitor developments in the Middle East after the recent ceasefire reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium.
If UK economic data remains resilient while the Dollar stays under pressure, GBP/USD could extend towards "dense resistance ahead of 1.3500."
However, stronger US data or a renewed flight to safety could pull the pair back towards 1.3300.
According to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, "the GBP’s recovery is looking even more entrenched as it stages its first meaningful attempt at breaking above recent resistance around 1.3400 and levels that roughly correspond to the 50 and 200 day MA’s.
"The offers dense resistance ahead of 1.3500.
"We note the continued recovery in the RSI, climbing to the upper 50s.
"We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450."
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate edged higher to 1.9015 on Friday as investors looked ahead to Canada's latest Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, with the labour market report expected to set the tone for the Canadian Dollar into next week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.901572 (+0.07%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.619926 (+0.01%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41623 (-0.04%)
DAILY RECAP:
GBP/CAD held close to one-week highs ahead of Canada's June labour market report.
The pair has risen steadily since the start of July, with Sterling benefiting from a softer US Dollar backdrop and resilient expectations for Bank of England policy.
Although UK business surveys have pointed to slower economic activity, inflation remains above target and markets continue to expect the Bank of England to proceed cautiously with any further interest-rate cuts.
In its latest FX briefing, ING noted that Sterling continues to find support from domestic fundamentals, even as the pace of gains has moderated.
The Canadian Dollar has been more cautious.
Oil prices remain supportive, but investors have been reluctant to take fresh positions ahead of today's employment report.
Canada's labour market surprised strongly in May, with employment increasing by almost 88,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 6.6%, comfortably beating expectations. Markets will now be watching to see whether that strength was sustained into June or whether hiring has begun to cool.
In recent client commentary, Scotiabank said negative sentiment towards the Canadian Dollar has eased, while MUFG highlighted that incoming domestic data will be critical in determining whether markets continue to price another Bank of Canada rate increase later this year.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Canada's Jobs Report Takes Centre Stage For Pound Sterling, there are no major UK economic releases due today, leaving broader market sentiment and expectations for Bank of England policy to drive direction.
The spotlight falls firmly on Canada.
Canada's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are due later today and are widely expected to be the week's key driver for the Canadian Dollar after May's unexpectedly strong labour market report.
A second consecutive month of robust job creation and another low unemployment reading would strengthen the case for the Bank of Canada to remain cautious about easing policy, supporting the Canadian Dollar.
Conversely, a weaker employment report could revive expectations of policy easing and lift GBP/CAD back towards recent highs.
Oil prices will remain another important influence after this week's geopolitical volatility, with further gains in crude likely to underpin the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 0.4% higher to near $60.22 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) continues to remain under pressure amid hopes that the restart of the war between the United States (US) and Iran won’t long last.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.17% lower to near 100.76. The DXY fell further during the day to near its three-week low at around 100.60.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
Earlier in the day, a US official confirmed that technical talks with Iran remained continued, despite President Donald Trump declaring that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Tehran is over.
Late Wednesday, US President Trump said that he had a conversation with Iran, adding that the nation wants the deal badly. However, he doesn’t believe that Iran would honor the deal.
Meanwhile, a steep correction in oil prices after significant gains earlier this week has also supported the Silver price. The WTI Crude Oil price holds onto Thursday’s losses near $72.00.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released next week.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5775 during the early European session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gathers strength to its strongest level in three weeks against the US Dollar (USD) on a hawkish rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
On Wednesday, the RBNZ raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% and signaled the potential for more hikes this year. RBNZ govorner Anna Breman said that the geopolitical environment is still highly uncertain, but the domestic economy has shown a lot of resilience in the past few months despite the fuel shock.
Traders are fully pricing two additional, quarter-point rate hikes from the New Zealand central bank through December, according to Bloomberg. That’s up from pricing a 36% chance the day before RBNZ’s meeting, the data showed.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, NZD/USD maintains a capped tone as it holds below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the upper Bollinger Band. The pair, however, trades above the Bollinger middle band around 0.5712, suggesting nearby downside support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 hints that the latest bounce carries modest positive momentum but not yet enough to overturn the broader downside bias.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band around 0.5825, with the 100-day SMA just above at 0.5840 forming a tight supply cluster that would need to be reclaimed to ease bearish pressure. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the recent price pivot around 0.5770, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 0.5712 and then the lower band around 0.5601, where a break would expose a deeper extension of the prevailing downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights a modest uptick in EUR/USD momentum, with scope to retest 1.1450 but limited prospects for a sustained break higher. Intraday support is seen at 1.1420 and 1.1405. For the coming one to three weeks, the pair is viewed in a 1.1360–1.1450 range, while a break of 1.1390/1.1410 could expose 1.1210 longer term.
Euro capped near recent highs"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR declined to 1.1390 two days ago before recovering to close largely unchanged at 1.1414 (+0.03%). Yesterday, we noted that “momentum indicators are turning flat,” and we held the view that EUR “is likely to range-trade between 1.1395 and 1.1440.” EUR subsequently traded within a higher range of 1.1412/1.1449, closing at 1.1428 (+0.12%). The slight increase in upward momentum suggests EUR may retest 1.1450. A continued rise above this level is unlikely. Support is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1405 would mean that the prevailing mild upward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (09 Jul, spot at 1.1420), we highlighted that EUR “has likely moved back into a range-trading phase,” and we expected it “to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450.” Although EUR subsequently rose to 1.1449, there has been no clear increase in upward momentum. Looking ahead, with momentum remaining flat, a break above 1.1450 is likely to result in a broader trading range rather than a sustained move higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,752.75 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,800.86 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 428,676.90 per tola from PKR 429,238.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,752.75
10 Grams
367,526.60
Tola
428,676.90
Troy Ounce
1,143,139.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 486.34 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 486.88 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,672.58 per tola from AED 5,678.88 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
486.34
10 Grams
4,863.28
Tola
5,672.58
Troy Ounce
15,126.90
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,155.94 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,165.15 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 95,129.52 per tola from PHP 95,236.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,155.94
10 Grams
81,559.41
Tola
95,129.52
Troy Ounce
253,678.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 497.03 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 497.70 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,797.23 per tola from SAR 5,805.06 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
497.03
10 Grams
4,970.27
Tola
5,797.23
Troy Ounce
15,459.55
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3430 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The UK government leadership transition and growing expectations of further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes underpin the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD).
Andy Burnham’s path to becoming the next UK prime minister looks certain after a vast majority of Labour MPs formally nominated him to be the next party leader. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that 322 of 403 Labour members of Parliament voted for Burnham at the end of the first day of the party’s leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer. Burnham is expected to formally become Prime Minister on July 20.
Traders have ramped up bets on the BoE interest rate hikes amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) BoE rate increase by year-end, most likely in December, according to Reuters.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a modest bullish bias as it sits above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA. The pair is edging higher toward the upper Bollinger band, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers just below the 60 mark, suggesting firm but not overstretched upside momentum as price grinds higher within the broader range.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the upper Bollinger band near 1.3475, and a daily close above this cap would open the way for the April 15 high of 1.3579. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 1.3405. A deeper pullback would expose the Bollinger midline near 1.3305, while the lower band around 1.3130 marks a more distant floor guarding the broader uptrend structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold (XAU/USD) reverses a modest Asian session dip to the $4,109-$4,108 region on Friday, though it lacks bullish conviction. The US Dollar (USD) selling remains unabated for the third consecutive day in the wake of Wednesday's less hawkish FOMC Minutes and offers some support to the commodity. However, prospects of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in 2026 remain active. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, could limit USD losses, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of the recovery from a one-week low set on Wednesday.
The minutes from the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers were divided over the direction of interest rates. The minutes further stated that many participants indicated the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. Fed officials, however, indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted as the upside risk to inflation remains elevated. Moreover, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool suggests that traders are still pricing in a nearly 85% probability of at least one Fed rate hike by the year-end.
Meanwhile, a fresh escalation of tensions between the US and Iran brings the spotlight back on oil prices and what it could mean for inflation and the global rates outlook. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that it carried out airstrikes on Thursday, hitting 90 Iranian military targets – including air defense systems, missile sites and naval logistics infrastructure along Iran's coastline. Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at US military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait, and also warned that further American attacks would trigger a wider regional response, significantly complicating diplomatic efforts.
The market anxiety, however, subsided after US President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran had called to make a deal with the US. Adding to this, a White House official signaled that the US is still committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran. The mixed signals keep investors on edge, suggesting that a strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the Gold price has formed a near-term bottom. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register modest weekly losses as the market focus remains glued to further developments surrounding the US-Iran saga.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold seems vulnerable while below 200-day SMA and descending channel resistanceThe precious metal holds within a broader downward parallel channel and below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps the near-term bias bearish despite improving momentum. The channel’s upper boundary near $4,156.03 is the first structural barrier ahead of the 200-day SMA currently around $4,493.66, reinforcing a cap above spot.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive, and the MACD line has pushed above the signal line, hinting at a corrective rebound within the broader downtrend. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45 still reflects only modest demand rather than a decisive bullish shift.
On the downside, the current day’s swing low, around $4,109-$4,108, acts as a nearby pivot, with stronger support aligned with the channel floor around $3,758.88, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if the bearish pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.18%-0.24%-0.57%-0.16%-0.28%-0.51%-0.38%EUR0.18%-0.06%-0.37%0.03%-0.11%-0.34%-0.20%GBP0.24%0.06%-0.33%0.09%-0.05%-0.27%-0.15%JPY0.57%0.37%0.33%0.41%0.28%0.03%0.16%CAD0.16%-0.03%-0.09%-0.41%-0.13%-0.37%-0.24%AUD0.28%0.11%0.05%-0.28%0.13%-0.23%-0.13%NZD0.51%0.34%0.27%-0.03%0.37%0.23%0.12%CHF0.38%0.20%0.15%-0.16%0.24%0.13%-0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 538.41 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 539.29 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,279.84 per tola from MYR 6,290.15 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
538.41
10 Grams
5,384.51
Tola
6,279.84
Troy Ounce
16,746.26
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers for the third consecutive day and touches a fresh weekly high, around the 1.1460 area, during the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) is seen prolonging the less hawkish FOMC Minutes-inspired slide and turning out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the currency pair. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit further USD losses and cap spot prices.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to find acceptance or build on its strength beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. Moreover, the recovery from the year-to-date low has been along an upward-sloping channel, which now seems to constitute the formation of a bearish flag pattern, leaving the recent gains capped within the broader corrective structure.
Momentum indicators, however, remain constructive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index is hovering just below 60, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is above zero and showing a modestly positive histogram. This suggests downside pressure is limited while the EUR/USD pair stays supported by the trend-channel support, currently pegged near the 1.1400 mark, which should act as a pivotal point.
A convincing breakdown below the said handle would expose the deeper structural supports clustered near 1.1327–1.1323. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period EMA at 1.1491, followed closely by the channel top at 1.1494. A sustained strength and acceptance above this zone would open the way toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.1524 and the 50.0% level around 1.1586, if the bullish momentum extends further.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,617.90 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,633.71 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 147,173.10 per tola from INR 147,357.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,617.90
10 Grams
126,178.70
Tola
147,173.10
Troy Ounce
392,461.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The immediate resistance remains at the $4,200 to $4,280 area. However, a break above $4,280 will push the price towards the $4,370 and $4,500 areas on 4-hour chart. The short term price action also shows that a break above $4,500 will likely open the door for a rally towards $5,000.
Silver Price Forecast: XAGUSD Breakout Eyes $72 XAGUSD Daily Chart Shows Strong Rebound From $55 The daily chart for spot silver also shows a strong rebound from $55. The price is consolidating between $55 and $64. A break of these levels will likely define the next move. Due to the importance of the $55 support zone, the price may break the $64 level and push towards $72. The $72 level is the key resistance level and a break above this level will likely open the door for a rally towards the $89 region.
GPIF proposal sparks capital repatriation hopes Long-dated JGBs lead powerful relief rally Imported inflation strengthens BOJ normalisation case USD/JPY nears trendline support Japanese assets rally on GPIF proposal Japanese assets are rallying after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government wants to encourage Japan's GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, to invest substantially more domestically.
The reason markets are reacting so strongly is because this isn't just any pension fund. The GPIF manages almost ¥300 trillion, or around US$1.8 trillion. If even a small portion of that portfolio is redirected towards domestic assets, you're potentially talking about a meaningful shift in global capital flows, with money coming back into Japan to buy yen-denominated investments.
Katayama's comments come after a bruising week for Japan's debt markets, with long-dated government bond yields surging to multi-decade highs. At the same time, the yen fell to its weakest levels in decades on a trade-weighted basis, underscoring the broad-based nature of its decline. If the GPIF were to increase its allocation to domestic assets, it could help support both the bond market and yen.
And that's exactly where the market reacted first.
JGB long-end yields tumble
Source: TradingView
Long-dated Japanese government bonds are leading the rally, particularly in the 10 to 20-year sector, which had borne the brunt of this week's sell-off. The subsequent flattening of the curve reflects not only the prospect of stronger domestic demand, but also stronger-than-expected Japanese producer price data. Prices rose 7.1% from a year earlier in June, beating expectations. Import prices within the report also surged 29.7%, reinforcing the inflationary impact of the weaker yen and adding to the case for the Bank of Japan to continue gradually normalising monetary policy.
While today's developments are supportive for Japanese bonds, they don't alter the broader fundamental backdrop. Much of the upward pressure on Japanese yields has reflected global forces, particularly the rise in US real yields. Even after the recent backup in nominal yields, Japanese real yields remain negative, limiting their appeal relative to overseas bond markets. That's why today's GPIF announcement is important, but it doesn't completely offset the broader forces that have been weighing on the market.
Nuance needed for Nikkei 225
Source: TradingView
At first glance, the prospect of the GPIF increasing its allocation to domestic assets looks supportive for Japanese equities. However, there's an important caveat. If the announcement is accompanied by a sustained appreciation in the yen, it could create headwinds for Japan's export-oriented companies, tempering some of the positive impact from stronger domestic institutional demand.
Looking at the chart, the Nikkei continues to coil within what appears to be a falling wedge, a bullish continuation pattern that points to the potential for an upside breakout.
Earlier this week, the index completed a dragonfly doji after a false break beneath wedge support before rebounding strongly from the intersection of the 50-day moving average with 66,000, the latter a level that acted as both support and resistance in June. That failed breakdown leaves the focus on the topside.
A break above wedge resistance would strengthen the bullish case, bringing a retest of the record high at 73,520 into view. On the way, 72,000 may provide resistance, having capped gains on two occasions in June.
The oscillators paint a more neutral picture. RSI is sitting around the 50 level after posting a series of lower highs, while MACD remains in positive territory but has flattened noticeably. Together, they suggest upside momentum has moderated, although not sufficiently to undermine the broader bullish technical setup.
USD/JPY unwind gathers pace
Source: TradingView
The final leg of the story is the yen. If Japanese institutions begin reallocating capital back home, that naturally creates demand for the currency, helping explain why USD/JPY has pulled back from this week's highs.
Positioning may also be amplifying the move. Speculative investors are already carrying one of the largest net short yen positions in more than a decade, according to the latest Commitment of Traders data. That leaves the market vulnerable to bouts of short covering whenever positive yen catalysts emerge.
Looking at the chart, USD/JPY has slipped beneath not only the 2024 high at 161.95, but also 161.50, a level that acted as both resistance and support earlier this year. The pair is now approaching uptrend support dating back to the middle of May, which comes in around 161 today.
A break below would expose 160.73, the former 2026 high set in late April and successfully defended on two occasions in early July, making it an important support zone to watch. A move below that area, and particularly beneath 160.50, would open the door for a test of the 50-day moving average, located around 160.
Momentum indicators are also beginning to soften. RSI has rolled over after posting a series of lower highs and is now back around the neutral 50 level. MACD has produced a bearish crossover while remaining in positive territory, suggesting upside momentum is not only fading but could be on the cusp of shifting in favour of the bears.
USD/JPY started a fresh increase but struggled near 162.80. A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 161.60 on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin could gain bullish momentum if it settles above $65,000. WTI Crude Oil prices recovered some losses before the bears appeared near $76.20. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar gained bullish momentum after it settled above $160.80 against the US Dollar. USD/JPY even climbed above 162.00 before it faced rejection.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair again struggled to surpass the 162.70 and 162.80 levels. It is now correcting some gains and might dip toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from the 160.49 swing low to the 162.70 high.
If there are more losses, the pair might find support near 161.60. Besides, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 161.60, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
The first major support could be near 160.80 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 160.80 might send the pair toward 160.00. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 158.80.
On the upside, the bears might remain active near 162.80. The next major resistance might be 163.40. A close above 163.40 could spark a sharp increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 165.00.
Looking at Bitcoin, the price could start a fresh increase, but a close above $65,000 is important for upside continuation.
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NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the long-term support level 0.5600 (which stopped the strong downtrend d in November) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone started the active medium-term impulse sequence (3).
NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.5780 (former support from the start of June).
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On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7989 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8036 and 6.7931 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Manufacturing survey delivers blockbuster upside surprise RBNZ tightening cycle gains fresh credibility RBA rate expectations continue to unwind AUD/NZD technical breakdown gains momentum NZD/USD breakout shifts focus higher New Zealand may be on holiday, but the Kiwi dollar certainly wasn't on Thursday. It topped the G10 FX leaderboard after strong data reinforced the RBNZ's message from earlier this week that further rate hikes are likely.
Factory floor fires up The catalyst for the outperformance was a blockbuster BNZ PMI. The headline index surged to 59.7 in June, its highest reading since July 2021. Excluding the pandemic rebound, it was the strongest result since May 2017, underpinned by a sharp lift in new orders, production, deliveries and employment. Respondents reported stronger sales, growing order books and renewed confidence, outweighing concerns about Middle East tensions and cost-of-living pressures.
A hawkish roadmap The survey's release was timely, arriving just days after the RBNZ lifted its cash rate to 2.5%, the first increase of a new tightening cycle. Policymakers retained a hawkish bias, saying "some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required" to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target midpoint.
Speaking after the decision, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said they were "feeling our way" as they sought to identify New Zealand's neutral cash rate, the level where it is neither stimulatory nor restrictive on economic activity. She suggested it may sit somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5%, implying 3% may be the Bank's initial destination for policy.
Mind the gap That’s important because relative rate expectations have long been one of the key macro drivers for AUD/NZD, making recent shifts in pricing on either side of the Tasman particularly important.
Source: Bloomberg
While the RBNZ has just embarked on a fresh tightening cycle, the RBA is likely much closer to the end of its own, or perhaps already there, after lifting its cash rate three times, unwinding the easing conducted in 2025. Although it has left the door open to further increases, softer domestic economic data and easing energy prices have seen markets scale back expectations for additional tightening. Just a few months ago, traders were flirting with the idea that the cash rate may need to near 5%. Today, there's only around an even chance of another 25 basis point increase to 4.60%.
Source: Tradingview
Thursday's data saw the Australia-New Zealand two-year yield spread compress by 14 basis points, the largest one-day decline since March 9. While the catalyst was New Zealand's stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI, the broader narrowing in spreads has been driven just as much by the steady unwinding of hawkish RBA pricing over recent months.
Connecting the dots The rates relationship is evident in the correlation matrix below, with Australia-New Zealand two-year yield spreads maintaining a consistently positive correlation with AUD/NZD across the past week, month and quarter.
Source: Tradingview
Energy prices have also been somewhat influential. While both Australia and New Zealand are heavily reliant on imported petroleum, Australia is also one of the world's largest LNG exporters. It's perhaps no surprise then that AUD/NZD has also maintained a strong positive correlation with LNG prices over the past month, particularly over the past week, reflecting the terms of trade impact of fluctuations in gas prices on the Australian dollar.
AUD/NZD trendline snaps
Source: Tradingview
It's not only fundamentals that are pointing to the risk of Kiwi outperformance against the Australian dollar, with the technical picture increasingly aligning with that view. Thursday saw AUD/NZD break below its June 2025 uptrend, doing so emphatically while also slicing through the 100-day moving average, a level it had remained above since July last year.
The breakdown follows the formation of a series of lower highs and the completion of what resembles an evening star bearish reversal after the pair spent several sessions flirting with the 50-day moving average earlier this week. The question now is whether Thursday's breakdown attracts another wave of selling on Friday.
The immediate focus is the June 10 low at 1.2053. Should that give way, attention shifts to 1.2000, a level that's repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent months, followed by 1.1950. Below that sits the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May 2025-June 2026 bull move, a level the pair also spent considerable time trading around back in March. The 200-day moving average at 1.1813, sitting just above the former breakout level at 1.1797, shapes as a more ambitious downside target.
Overhead, the broken June 2025 uptrend and 100-day moving average, located just below 1.2100, combine with horizontal resistance at 1.2115 to create an important resistance zone should buyers attempt to regain control.
Momentum indicators continue to favour the bears. RSI (14) is trending lower below 50 without yet reaching oversold territory, while MACD has crossed below its signal line and continues to diverge in negative territory, favouring selling into strength and downside breaks.
NZD/USD triangle delivers
Source: Tradingview
There are also signs the improving backdrop is beginning to spill over into NZD/USD. As noted yesterday, the pair was threatening to break higher from an ascending triangle, a move that's since played out through the European and North American sessions.
The breakout shifts the focus to 0.5774, a level that's repeatedly acted as both support and resistance this year. A sustained move above there would bring a cluster of key moving averages into view, starting with the 50-day moving average at 0.5815. While the 50-day moving average has recently crossed below the 200-day moving average, completing a death cross, that signal is being overridden by the improving fundamental backdrop and recent price action. Should that view prove misplaced and a retracement unfold, the former breakout level at 0.5724 is the first area to watch for support.
Momentum indicators point to the potential for further gains. RSI (14) continues to trend higher and has reclaimed the neutral 50 level, while MACD has completed a bullish crossover. Although it remains below zero, it's continuing to push higher, suggesting the bearish momentum that dragged NZD/USD to fresh 2026 lows in late June has dissipated and may be in the early stages of reversing, pointing to the potential for an extension of Thursday's breakout.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to around $4,120 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as traders weigh a resumption of war in the Middle East.
The White House signaled that it is still committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran, even though US President Donald Trump’s declared earlier this week that the framework deal to end the Iran war was “over” after Tehran carried out strikes against vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and against neighboring countries.
However, uncertainty remains high as Trump said that strikes would “get much worse” if Tehran again attacked ships in the strait. On Thursday, the Islamic Republic targeted US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Jordan intercepted eight Iran-launched missiles, according to Axios.
Escalating tensions between the US and Iran could drive crude oil prices higher, stoking inflation fears and forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance.
The release of minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, which was Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first, reflected a divided central bank not sure how to proceed on rates without more information on inflation.
The minutes said that “many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year,” while also saying that “many other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range.”
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The British Pound advances some 0.50% against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, as risk appetite improves after US President Donald Trump said that Iran had reached out and that it wants to make a deal badly. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades at 217.76, near year-to-date (YTD) highs.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY has reached 18-year highs, last seen in February 2008, opening the door to challenging the January 2008 monthly peak levels.
Price action shows the market is respecting a series of higher highs and higher lows, an indication of further upside. Momentum favours buyers, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and about to enter overbought territory, indicating further upside.
The first resistance for GBP/JPY is 218.00. Once cleared, it opens the door to challenge key psychological levels like 219.00, 220.00 and the January 2008 high at 222.76.
Conversely, a potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange markets could open the door for a deeper pullback, with the first support level seen at the July 7 daily low of 216.38. Below this area, the next support is the 216.00 mark. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be a downslope resistance trendline that turns into support around the 214.70-215.00 area.
GBP/JPY Price Chart — Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%-0.46%0.65%-0.17%-0.08%-0.82%0.44%EUR-0.06%-0.54%0.58%-0.24%-0.10%-0.91%0.34%GBP0.46%0.54%1.02%0.29%0.42%-0.36%0.88%JPY-0.65%-0.58%-1.02%-0.84%-0.61%-1.45%-0.24%CAD0.17%0.24%-0.29%0.84%0.21%-0.61%0.58%AUD0.08%0.10%-0.42%0.61%-0.21%-0.81%0.43%NZD0.82%0.91%0.36%1.45%0.61%0.81%1.25%CHF-0.44%-0.34%-0.88%0.24%-0.58%-0.43%-1.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Silver price surged by over 2.70% on Thursday, climbing near $60.00 as US Treasury yields retreated and the US Dollar dove by over 0.12%. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $59.94, after bouncing off daily lows of $57.59.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe downtrend remains intact, with the structure of lower highs and lower lows intact, even though the white metal has bounced off weekly lows below $58.00.
In the short term, momentum favours buyers, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but it remains below the 50-neutral level, suggesting a potential resumption of the downtrend.
If XAG/USD decisively clears the $60.00 figure, a move towards the July 6 swing high is on the cards. Once breached, buyers could challenge a downslope resistance trendline at around $64.70, before launching a strong attack on the confluence of the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $70.25
On the flip side, and also the path of least resistance, if Silver drops below the current week’s low of 57.22, it paves the way to test the June 24 cycle low of $55.63. Below this level, the next area of interest would be the November 12, 2025, daily high turned support at $54.39.
XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Spot gold weekly chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Resistance Levels Define the Next Breakout Test Another sign of strength would be indicated by a rise above Tuesday’s high of $4,181. That would put gold more clearly above both the 20-day average and the long-term trendline, which is currently positioned nearby. A close above Tuesday’s high would confirm strength by reclaiming both trend indicators. Next, a decisive breakout above $4,203 would be needed to trigger a bullish continuation, with the first primary target anchored by the falling 50-day moving average, currently at $4,362. Both the 50% retracement at $4,358 and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection for a small rising ABCD pattern near $4,354 provide additional confluence.
Bullish Setup Faces a Critical Support Test Conversely, if dynamic trend resistance continues to hold, the recent bullish reversal attempt could fail. A drop below Thursday’s low of $4,054 and Wednesday’s low of $4,021 would weaken the developing higher swing low structure. That could lead to another test of support near the corrective low of $3,942 or a decline toward the next lower support target zone of $3,886. Therefore, the ability of gold to reclaim nearby resistance levels will likely determine whether the recent bounce evolves into a broader recovery or another leg lower within the correction.
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The Mexican peso continues to face difficult trading sessions. Over the last 3 trading sessions, average USD/MXN movements have posted a gain of more than 1.00% in favor of the U.S. dollar, which continues to reflect weakness around the peso.
This scenario did not fully change after the release of Mexico’s inflation data, which showed a significant decline. This new reading could start to affect expectations for higher interest rates for longer, which in turn could limit the strength of the Mexican peso. In this context, USD/MXN could continue to show a phase of indecision or even more relevant buying pressure over the next few sessions.
Inflation day for Mexico During today’s session, Mexico’s annual average inflation data was released. Initially, the consensus expected a reading near 3.52%, but the official figure surprised to the downside and came in at 3.37%, below expectations and at its lowest level in the last 5 years.
This data is relevant because it marks a significant decline compared to previous months. It also confirms a downward trend in the consumer price index, which has been falling from this year’s high near 4.59%. With this new release, inflation is moving increasingly closer to the central bank’s target of around 3.00%.
Source: TradingEconomics
This scenario could be important for the Mexican peso’s movements, as one of its main advantages against the U.S. dollar has been the wide rate differential between both central banks. While the Bank of Mexico keeps its interest rate around 6.5%, the Federal Reserve maintains a benchmark rate near 3.75%.
For months, this differential has positioned the bond market and Mexican peso-denominated investments as potentially more attractive options compared to dollar-denominated investments. To some extent, this has helped sustain demand for the Mexican peso.
Source: TradingEconomics
However, the outlook could start to change. The latest inflation release marks an important shift in the price dynamic and could reduce the need for additional interest rate increases in Mexico. It could even gradually open room for rate cuts from the current 6.5% level over the coming months.
For this reason, the latest data could point to a calmer Bank of Mexico, with no need to deliver significant additional interest rate increases.
When comparing this potential dynamic with the Federal Reserve, the scenario is different. In the United States, inflation has not shown such significant declines, and CME Group’s probability table still points to a probability above 51.00% that, at the September 16 decision, the interest rate could move from the current 3.75% level toward a new 4.00% reference.
This suggests that the Federal Reserve could still maintain an aggressive stance over the coming months.
Source: CMEGROUP
This point is key because an important difference between both central banks is starting to emerge. While the market could begin to price in a calmer Banxico, the Federal Reserve remains close to a more aggressive scenario.
This combination could reduce the rate differential that has supported the Mexican peso over the last few months. For that reason, rather than strengthening the peso, the latest inflation data could suggest that, over time, peso-denominated investments may become less attractive compared to U.S. dollar-denominated investments.
If this central bank dynamic continues, the peso could struggle to recover ground consistently in the medium term. This could reflect not only a phase of indecision in USD/MXN, but also more relevant buying pressure over the coming trading weeks.
Technical outlook for USD/MXN
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Sideways range stronger than ever: Since February 2026, USD/MXN has not managed to define a clear direction or consolidate a more structured trend line. This has led to the formation of a relevant sideways range, with resistance near 17.92 and support around 17.10. As long as the pair fails to break out of these barriers, it will be difficult to confirm a firmer trend. For this reason, indecision could remain the dominant technical pattern over the coming trading weeks.
RSI: movements do not show significant short-term strength and remain close to the neutral 50 area. This suggests a balance between buying and selling impulses in the market, reinforcing the importance of the current indecision phase.
MACD: shows a similar reading, with the histogram remaining close to the 0 level. This reflects balance in the strength of short-term moving averages and confirms that indecision is still present in average USD/MXN movements. If this behavior persists, neutrality could remain relevant over the next few sessions. Key levels:
17.90 – Main resistance: This recent high zone remains the main bullish barrier above the 200-period simple moving average. Sustained moves toward this zone could mark the beginning of a more consistent buying bias and open room for the possible formation of a bullish trend line over the coming weeks.
17.52 – Current barrier: This is a relevant retracement level from recent weeks and an important neutral zone to watch. If price fails to move away from this level, the indecision phase could be reinforced, and the sideways range could extend as the dominant chart structure in the medium term.
17.10 – Relevant support: This zone corresponds to the 2026 lows and is currently the main bearish barrier. Moves toward this level could bring the selling bias back into focus and give continuity to the descending channel that remained the dominant structure months ago.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
The West Rebuilds While the East Pays Up Start with the number that spooks people. Silver held in COMEX warehouses that is actually pledged to settle futures contracts, the category exchanges call “registered,” climbed to about 93.0 million ounces on the July 6 report, against 233.0 million ounces of “eligible” metal (stored in the same vaults but not offered for delivery) for a combined 326.0 million ounces. Registered stock was near 82 million ounces in mid-June, so the deliverable pool has climbed by about 11 million ounces in three weeks. Read on its own, a rising deliverable pile looks like loosening.
It is not fresh metal arriving from mines. It is repositioning inside the system ahead of the active July delivery month, with eligible metal being reclassified into registered so it can settle contracts. The pool that traders watch is expanding on paper, and that is the part the West sees.
The East sees something else. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, silver traded at a premium of high single digits over the international price at the June 30 benchmark fixes, and that gap widened to roughly 11% by early July. A premium that large is a standing incentive to pull metal toward China, though it has to be read net of local taxes, currency, and import costs rather than treated as pure scarcity. Even discounted for those, a double-digit premium is the market’s clearest live signal of where physical silver is genuinely tight.
The two pictures are not contradictory. They describe one market with two speeds. Western holders are comfortable letting metal move into deliverable inventory because their own demand is soft: the largest silver exchange-traded fund, SLV, saw net outflows of about $606 million over the past month, roughly 10 million ounces of investment selling at current prices, and US retail stayed quiet, with 2026 American Silver Eagle premiums down around $5 to $8 a coin.
Chinese buyers, meanwhile, are paying up to secure the physical metal. Layer on Beijing’s July 1 move to enforce strategic-mineral export controls, under which silver is reportedly licensed, and the direction of travel sharpens: metal is being kept inside China while the West treats it as ample.
British Pound: Recovery tests key resistance against US Dollar – ScotiabankScotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is fractionally higher versus the US Dollar (USD), with sentiment improving after PM Starmer’s resignation announcement. They see support from a repriced Bank of England (BoE) rate path following the latest Oil rally and describe GBP/USD’s recovery as increasingly entrenched as it attempts to break above 1.3400 and trades within a 1.3350–1.3450 range.
"The pound is up fractionally vs. the USD and is a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as we head into Thursday’s NA session with focus still largely centered on broader developments in the absence of high-level domestic releases." Read more...
British Pound elevates despite firm US claimsGBP/USD trades higher near the 1.3400 area on Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) fails to find support from stronger-than-expected United States (US) jobless claims data and hawkish signals in the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below expectations of 218K and the previous revised 217K, while the four-week average eased to 218.75K from 222.5K. However, Continuing Jobless Claims rose slightly to 1.814 million from 1.806 million, suggesting that while layoffs remain limited, workers are still taking longer to find new jobs. Read more...
British Pound hits fresh three-week highs past 1.3400 as US Dollar pulls backThe British Pound (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, to hit fresh three–week highs right above 1.3400. The Greenback's pullback following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes and rumours about the resumption of the US-Iran negotiations are keeping the pair buoyed.
The US and Iran traded attacks for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but risk aversion remains contained so far, with markets hopeful that the negotiations will continue. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Thursday that Tehran “wants to make a deal so badly,” which suggests that the peace talks might resume soon. Read more...
Gold (XAU/USD) price advances during the North American session on Thursday, up over 1.30% as the US Dollar (USD) retreats due to falling Oil prices amid easing tensions in the Middle East. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,132 after bouncing off weekly lows of around $4,021 hit on Wednesday.
XAU/USD rises as Middle East tensions ease, pressuring DollarThe US-Iran conflict grabbed the headlines during the last two days as both parties exchanged attacks, threatening to derail negotiations that had been scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Saturday before the last escalation. Oil prices jumped, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, reclaiming the $ 75.00-per-barrel barrier, but retreated on Thursday.
The jump in energy prices grew speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise borrowing costs to tame already high inflation near 4.2% as reported in May. Now eyes turn to next week, with the release of inflation data on the consumer and producer sides, along with the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance at the US Congress.
Fed expected to rise in SeptemberWorth noting that the Fed’s last meeting minutes showed a slightly hawkish central bank, as most officials see a scenario for a rate hike, but chose to hold interest rates. As of writing, money markets are pricing in a 62% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalNew York Fed President John Williams stated that inflation is still "far too high" and emphasized the importance of considering energy prices when shaping monetary policy. He reaffirmed the central bank’s goal to bring inflation down to 2%, underlining that policy decisions "must remain” guided by data.
Bullion buyers are capitalizing on falling US Treasury yields, as the 10-year T-note is down five basis points at 4.529%. This is weighing on the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is down 0.21%.
The DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is at 100.85, near weekly lows of 100.78.
The drop in US yields is a consequence of the dip in Oil prices. An escalation of the Middle East conflict could trigger a recovery and weigh on Gold prices, which, despite benefiting from inflationary scenarios, tend to edge lower amid high-interest-rate environments.
Next week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), jobless claims and housing data.
HSBC reduces Gold price forecastOn Thursday, HSBC lowered its average Gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $4,560 and $4,925, from previous estimates of $4,864 and $5,000.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold recovers $4,100, eyes on $4,300Gold remains bearishly biased, despite posting a two-day peak at $4,138. In the short term, momentum has turned bullish, but if buyers want more reassurance that the downtrend has finished, they must push bullion prices past a downsloping resistance trendline at around $4,190-$4,215.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), although bearish, is closing to the 50-neutral level, which, once pierced, would show that buyers are gaining traction.
If XAU/USD clears $4,200, the next resistance is at $ 4,300. On further strength, the next stop is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,362. Above is the 50-day SMA at $4,492 ahead of $4,500.
Downwards, Gold must drop below the July 8 swing low of $4,021. Beneath lies the June 30 swing low of $3,941, followed by the October 28, 2025, swing low of $3,886.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold 090726 Daily Chart Gold rebounds as traders focus on the strong pullback in the oil markets. Oil prices are down by -4% as traders react to recent events in the Middle East.
According to recent reports, Iran sent oil tankers carrying 11 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. has continued to attack targets in Iran but did not impose a naval blockade of the country’s ports, so Iran rushed to sell its oil.
Iran has also attacked targets in the region in response to U.S. attacks, which were triggered by Iran’s attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent reports suggest that Qatar and Pakistan are ready to get back to their roles as mediators in order to facilitate negotiations between U.S. and Iran.
Falling oil prices provided support to gold prices as Treasury yields fell. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.16% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.53%. Lower yields are bullish for gold that pays no interest.
U.S. dollar pulled back against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders focused on falling Treasury yields. Weaker dollar provided additional support to gold markets.
The nearest resistance level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the $4180 – $4200 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at $4360 – $4380.
Silver Attempts To Settle Above The $60.00 Level Silver 090726 Daily Chart Silver rallied as gold/silver ratio pulled back towards the 68.50 level. Gold/silver ratio is moving lower when the appetite for risk is rising. In case gold/silver ratio settles below 68.50, it will head towards recent lows near the 66.00 level, which will be bullish for silver.
Currently, silver is trying to settle above the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00. If silver manages to settle above the $62.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance at $65.00 – $66.00.
On the support side, a move below the $60.00 level will open the way to the test of the support at $56.00 – $57.00. A move below the $56.00 level will show that silver markets are ready to gain additional downside momentum.
Platinum 090726 Daily Chart Platinum has also managed to gain upside momentum amid rising demand for precious metals. Palladium markets were up by +2.6%, providing additional support to platinum.
From the technical point of view, platinum attempts to settle above the resistance level at $1600 – $1620. If platinum manages to settle above the $1620 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the $1680 – $1700 range.
On the support side, platinum needs to settle back below the $1560 level to gain downside momentum in the near term. A move below the $1560 level will open the way to the test of the nearest support at $1500 – $1520. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
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Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is fractionally higher versus the US Dollar (USD), with sentiment improving after PM Starmer’s resignation announcement. They see support from a repriced Bank of England (BoE) rate path following the latest Oil rally and describe GBP/USD’s recovery as increasingly entrenched as it attempts to break above 1.3400 and trades within a 1.3350–1.3450 range.
Pound sentiment improves on policy repricing"The pound is up fractionally vs. the USD and is a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as we head into Thursday’s NA session with focus still largely centered on broader developments in the absence of high-level domestic releases."
"The recent recovery in sentiment remains important, signaling market confidence in the aftermath of PM Starmer’s June 22 resignation announcement."
"Fundamentally, the outlook for relative central bank policy is providing additional support as markets reprice the BoE’s rate path in light of the latest rally in oil prices."
"Neutral/bullish—the GBP’s recovery is looking even more entrenched as it stages its first meaningful attempt at breaking above recent resistance around 1.3400 and levels that roughly correspond to the 50 and 200 day MA’s."
"We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Since the final days of June, the Canadian dollar has been unable to build relevant strength against the U.S. dollar. Now, average USD/CAD movements remain close to 0.2% in the short term, showing a neutral bias that has become evident again in the behavior of both currencies.
For now, CAD has not managed to regain confidence ahead of the employment data release. An additional slowdown in this indicator could keep the Bank of Canada on a neutral policy path, limiting the support from higher rates and making it harder for the Canadian dollar to regain appeal in the short term.
In addition, new updates around the conflict in the Middle East could be key for USD strength. Together, these events could continue to highlight a phase of indecision, or even relevant buying pressure, around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
What to expect from employment in Canada? Tomorrow’s session is expected to bring the release of Canada’s employment change data. So far, expectations point to a significant decline from the previous reading, with the creation of around 11.2 thousand jobs in June. This figure would come in well below the May reading, which stood near 87.8 thousand jobs created.
Looking at the broader behavior of employment in Canada over the last few months, the data shows a mixed dynamic, with consistent signs of weakness. May was the only month that managed to post a solid figure, but overall, employment data has shown fragility. This trend could be confirmed with tomorrow’s release, especially if the result comes in below expectations, as it would reaffirm a relevant labor market problem in Canada compared to other countries where the slowdown is not as significant.
Source: TradingEconomics
This outlook could be relevant for the Bank of Canada, as weaker employment, or even a reading below expectations, could reduce the need to raise the interest rate, which currently remains around 2.25%. This could lead the central bank to maintain a wait-and-see stance before considering meaningful changes to monetary policy.
In fact, so far, the probability table shows an 88% chance that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the July 15 decision. For the September decision, a probability above 70% has also started to emerge that this dynamic will persist.
Source: Bankofcanadaodds
The employment data release is key. If the report confirms a sharper-than-expected slowdown, expectations for a neutral monetary policy stance from the Bank of Canada could be reinforced over the coming months.
This would limit the appeal of rates in Canada, especially compared to a Federal Reserve that is still approaching scenarios of potential rate hikes. In this context, the differential against the 3.75% rate in the United States could continue to favor USD-denominated investments over those denominated in CAD.
For this reason, a significant decline in employment change could maintain a phase of indecision or even relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
Does the Middle East matter? Another important event to consider is the situation in the Middle East. The latest updates have shown that the United States would be willing to sit down for negotiations, while Trump’s comments continue to point toward maintaining a diplomatic path.
However, an environment of confusion has developed, as during the last 2 sessions a new escalation of the conflict seemed inevitable amid fresh attacks. This has increased doubts over whether a potential peace agreement can take place in the short term.
In this scenario, the behavior of the U.S. dollar is key. The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength, showed a relevant increase above the 101-point area in previous sessions as new attacks returned. During the latest session, however, it weakened again amid the relative calm generated by additional comments from the United States.
Source: TradingEconomics
This point is important because, for months, the dollar has been considered a liquidity safe-haven currency during repeated escalations of the conflict. This could become relevant again if no concrete negotiations are seen in the short term.
In that scenario, additional safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar could appear, making it harder for the Canadian dollar to recover ground in the short term. This could also open the door to relevant buying pressure around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
Technical outlook for USD/CAD
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Bullish trend continues to dominate: Since the first days of May, USD/CAD has maintained a relevant bullish trend line. This structure has marked an important buying bias, also reinforced by the bullish crossover of the 50-period moving average above the 200-period moving average, signaling a shift from a bearish structure to a more relevant bullish structure. For now, there is no bearish correction strong enough to put this technical pattern at risk, which is why it remains the most important structure to watch and could continue to dominate movements over the next few sessions.
RSI: The RSI remains above the 50 level, suggesting that buying momentum has remained relevant over the last 14 sessions. If the indicator continues to hold above the neutral area, this could continue to reflect an important buying bias over the next few sessions.
TRIX: The TRIX line maintains a bullish slope above its neutral zone, reinforcing the presence of buying strength in long-term exponential moving averages and highlighting the importance of a broad buying bias. However, the curve has also started to flatten steadily, which may be signaling exhaustion in buying strength. This could reflect a relevant phase of indecision over the next few sessions or a possible pause in the buying bias seen in previous weeks.
Key levels:
1.42604 – Relevant resistance: This important high has not been seen consistently since April 2025 and represents the main short-term bullish barrier. Moves toward this zone would reinforce the current buying bias and could open room for an extension of the bullish trend line over the next few sessions.
1.41982 – Near-term barrier: This is the most relevant neutral and retracement zone from recent trading sessions. Price movements too close to this level could highlight consistent neutrality and even open room for a possible short-term sideways range.
1.40813 – Crucial support: This bearish barrier coincides with the area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Price movements that begin to approach this level could end the bullish trend line and open room for a more dominant selling bias over the coming trading weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Declines
DXY 090726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing some ground as traders react to the Initial Jobless Claims report and focus on the pullback in the oil markets.
The Initial Jobless Claims report indicated that 215,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 218,000.
Today, traders also focused on the Existing Home Sales report. The report showed that Existing Home Sales decreased by -2.4% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst consensus of +0.7%.
Oil prices pulled back by -4% despite escalation in the Middle East. Falling oil prices put pressure on the American currency as demand for safe-haven assets declined.
In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below the 100.80 level, it will head towards the support at 100.50 – 100.65. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 101.80 – 101.95.
EUR/USD Tests Resistance At 1.1420 – 1.1435 EUR/USD 090726 4h Chart EUR/USD gained some ground as traders focused on Germany’s Exports report. The report indicated that Exports increased by +0.9% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of -0.3%.
If EUR/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.1500 – 1.1515. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Tests Multi-Week Highs GBP/USD 090726 4h Chart GBP/USD continues to move higher as traders focus on general weakness of the U.S. dollar and monitor dynamics of the oil markets.
If GBP/USD stays above the 1.3400 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465. On the support side, a move below the support at 1.3335 – 1.3350 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
USD/CAD 090726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving lower as traders react to the strong rebound in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.
The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.4010 – 1.4025.
USD/JPY Moves Lower As Treasury Yields Fall USD/JPY 090726 4h Chart USD/JPY is losing some ground as traders react to the pullback in Treasury yields, which was triggered by falling oil prices. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 4.53% level.
There are no signs of interventions from the Bank of Japan, and it looks that BoJ is not ready to provide additional support to the Japanese yen at current levels.
If USD/JPY pulls back below the support at 161.50 – 162.00, it will head towards recent lows near the 160.50 level. On the upside, a move above 162.80 will push USD/JPY towards the 165.00 level. It should be noted that USD/JPY has not traded at 165.00 since June 1986.
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The pound has ben strengthening all week, and despite a renewed flare-up in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, the cable has barely flinched. But if the situation deteriorates, and oil prices remain elevated for longer, this will prompt investors to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy, which, in turn, could negatively impact the GBP/USD forecast. For now, side-ways trading is likely to dominate the agenda, with the US dollar likely to find dip buyers ahead of US CPI next week.
While the reaction in foreign exchange has so far been relatively restrained compared with moves in energy markets, the implications for monetary policy are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Higher oil prices threaten to slow the disinflation process that has underpinned expectations for easier central bank policy this year. If energy prices remain elevated, the Federal Reserve may find itself keeping interest rates higher for longer, and perhaps deliver some rate hikes later this year.
That remains supportive for the US dollar, particularly against currencies where domestic fundamentals are becoming less convincing.
Not much for US dollar until CPI release next week With little fresh guidance from the minutes of the FOMC’s June meeting, attention now shifts to next week’s US CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress. Both events have the potential to reshape expectations for the remainder of the year. Against a backdrop of firmer energy prices, the balance of risks arguably favours a more hawkish interpretation of incoming inflation data, which should continue to provide underlying support for the greenback. Today’s US jobless claims data pointed to a healthy jobs market.
GBP/USD forecast: Political uncertainty could cap sterling’s recovery Sterling has been one of the stronger-performing major currencies in recent weeks, helped in part by the immediate reduction of uncertainty about Keir Starmer after he stepped down. But this doesn’t mean political uncertainty is over. Far from it. Attention is gradually shifting towards the expected change in UK leadership later this month. Investors will be watching closely for the appointment of the next Chancellor, particularly given growing speculation that fiscal policy could take a more expansionary direction.
The challenge for any incoming government is that public finances remain under considerable strain. With limited room for additional spending without raising taxes, expectations for meaningful fiscal stimulus may ultimately prove difficult to deliver.
At the same time, markets are no longer expecting the Bank of England to tighten policy further this year. That leaves sterling increasingly reliant on external factors, particularly oil prices and developments in the US dollar, rather than domestic monetary support.
Technical GBP/USD forecast: Cable reaches 200-day MA Source: TradingView.com From a technical analysis perspective, the GBP/USD forecast continues to favour the downside despite the impressive gains it has made in the last couple of weeks. If we see a sharp reversal around the point of origin of the last breakdown from around the 1.3400 region, where we also have the 200-day average converging, resulting in the breakdown of the short-term bullish trend line, then a return to support at 1.3270ish could be on the way. Otherwise, a slow drift towards 1.3500 could be the outcome if oil falls back.
Looking ahead, a stronger-than-expected US inflation report next week could accelerate downside momentum by reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance. Conversely, any easing in Middle East tensions or signs that inflation pressures are once again moderating could allow sterling to recover some lost ground. For now, however, the path of least resistance appears to favour a firmer dollar, leaving the near-term GBP/USD forecast tilted modestly to the downside.
Silver (XAG/USD) snaps a three-day losing streak on Thursday as a mildly weaker US Dollar (USD) and a pullback in US Treasury yields lend support to the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $60.30, up 3.38% on the day.
Despite the intraday rebound, XAG/USD maintains a bearish structure, with a series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-May. The metal also trades below its key moving averages and is about 50% below its record high near $121 set in January.
The metal is struggling to stage a sustained recovery as macroeconomic headwinds cap the upside. Renewed hostilities in the Middle East have revived concerns over energy-driven inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates.
Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on non-yielding metals because they become less attractive relative to interest-bearing investments.
Hawkish Fed expectations and heightened geopolitical tensions are expected to keep downside pressure on the US Dollar limited. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.94 after touching an intraday low of 100.79.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, XAG/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as price holds within a downward parallel channel and below both the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.25 and the 100-day SMA at $74.32.
The pair trades just under the channel top at $63.50, suggesting upside attempts remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 points to subdued momentum even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns positive, hinting at only a modest recovery attempt within a broader corrective structure.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the channel upper boundary near $63.50. A sustained break above this would be needed to challenge the 200-day SMA at $70.25 and the 100-day SMA at $74.32.
On the downside, first support emerges at the horizontal line around $55, with the channel floor near $45 expected to act as a stronger demand area if bearish pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Chinese investors sharply trimmed their Gold ETF holdings in June, exacerbating global outflows for the month, as local investor risk appetite continued to improve amid equity market gains and a weaker Gold price, data from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows.
Physically-backed Gold ETFs in mainland China posted outflows of $2.22 billion in June, the highest monthly figure on record, according to data released on Wednesday. Over the month, Gold prices fell by more than 11%, similar to the pullback seen in January, as the US-Iran conflict continued to fuel inflation fears and central banks continued to signal potential interest-rate increases ahead.
“This anticipation contributed to rising real yields and a strengthening US Dollar, pushing up investors’ opportunity costs of holding gold,” the WGC said.
The pullback by Chinese investors is significant, as the country is the world’s largest market for the precious metal. The ETF facing the most outflows was Huaan Yifu Gold ETF with more than $1.1 billion.
Globally, Gold ETFs saw outflows of $8.9 billion in June, driven by Chinese investors’ pullback but also by those in the United States, with withdrawals of more than $5.3 billion.
US and Chinese investors led outflows from Gold ETFs in June, followed by France, Germany and Japan. Source: World Gold Council.Looking beyond June, data from the WGC shows that global Gold ETFs flows remained positive during the first semester at around $8 billion. Asia dominated global inflows (the region posted the strongest H1 on record), Europe also registered gains, while North America was the only region that recorded outflows.
Global Gold ETFs posted inflows in the first semester, but these were lower than those seen during 2025. Source: World Gold Council.Looking ahead, the WGC projects that Gold ETF flows could stabilize due to the relatively steady outlook for the precious metal for the second half of the year.
“Uncertainties surrounding geopolitics, economic growth and financial markets linger. This backdrop may continue to support investor demand for portfolio protection and sustain interest in gold ETFs as a strategic safe-haven allocation,” the report said.
Exchange Rates UK Research's latest July 2026 survey of leading investment banks suggests the euro is likely to recover some ground against the pound over the next 18 months.
With EUR/GBP currently trading near 0.8534—its lowest levels in around a year—the majority of institutions expect the pair to climb back into the 0.87-0.89 range through 2027.
Only a handful of banks forecast Pound Sterling maintaining its recent outperformance.
Image: EUR/GBP exchange rate forecasts chart- survey results July 2026 Latest Survey Suggests Pound Strength May Be Peaking The latest Exchange Rates UK Research poll points to a relatively clear consensus that sterling's recent gains against the euro will become harder to sustain.
Banks including Danske Bank, Goldman Sachs, ING, MUFG, SEB, Scotiabank, CIBC, JP Morgan and Rabobank all expect EUR/GBP to trade between 0.88 and 0.90 during 2027.
At the other end of the spectrum, Bank of America is the most bullish on sterling, forecasting EUR/GBP around 0.83-0.84, while Credit Agricole and Pantheon Macro also expect the euro to remain relatively weak.
Overall, however, the survey average points towards a modest recovery in EUR/GBP from current exchange rate levels rather than a continuation of Pound Sterling's strong rally.
That reflects recent market action.
EUR/GBP has fallen steadily over recent months, dropping from above 0.87 in the spring to around 0.853, its weakest level since mid-2025.
The move has been driven by broad sterling strength, with the pound outperforming most major currencies during June and early July.
ECB and Bank of England Outlooks Remain Central The differing forecasts largely reflect uncertainty over how monetary policy will evolve on either side of the Channel.
Pound Sterling has been supported by expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates relatively restrictive as inflation remains elevated, while political uncertainty has eased following recent developments in UK domestic politics.
Meanwhile, the euro continues to receive support from expectations that the European Central Bank could tighten policy further if energy-driven inflation proves more persistent, although policymakers have stressed that future decisions remain highly data dependent.
The result is that many banks now expect the interest-rate gap between the UK and Eurozone to narrow gradually, limiting sterling's ability to extend recent gains.
EUR/GBP Outlook: Survey Points to Euro Recovery, Not Reversal The latest Exchange Rates UK Research survey suggests EUR/GBP is more likely to recover gradually than stage a sharp rebound.
Most institutions continue to expect the exchange rate to remain below the long-term averages seen before the inflation shock of 2022, but equally believe current levels underestimate the euro's medium-term prospects.
For businesses and travellers, the survey implies that today's favourable pound-to-euro exchange rate may not be available indefinitely.
If the consensus proves correct, Pound Sterling could surrender part of its recent gains as monetary policy expectations converge and the euro area economy gradually stabilises.
The Australian Dollar has steadied near 0.6940 against the US Dollar after giving back part of this week's gains following a sharp rally at the start of July.
UOB believes the recent pullback is likely to prove temporary, with upside momentum continuing to build for the Australian Dollar.
The bank expects AUD/USD to remain range-bound between 0.6900 and 0.6950 over the next 24 hours, arguing that any further weakness should be limited.
According to UOB, "upward momentum is building tentatively, and the risk of AUD breaking above 0.6980 is increasing."
The bank believes this positive bias will remain intact provided AUD/USD holds above the key support level at 0.6900.
While UOB continues to expect further gains over the coming weeks, it remains cautious over the longer-term outlook. The bank maintains its one-to-three-month bearish view, warning that if AUD/USD falls below 0.6835, the next downside target would be the 2025 high around 0.6707.
For now, UOB expects the Aussie to consolidate before making another attempt to challenge resistance around the 0.6980 level.
Technical Indicators and Support Boundaries A breakdown below $3,900, I think, opens up a floor down to the $3,500 level in this market, and I think that’s probably pretty likely. Anytime this market rallies it seems to struggle, and with a reasonably strong US dollar, that’s going to continue to be a problem. Ultimately, I like the idea of perhaps fading short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, but really, at this point in time, I’m not overly aggressive.
I think gold is going to remain very noisy and that will probably be the way this market plays out for some time. With this, I like the idea of fading the first signs of exhaustion. I’m not really a big fan of jumping in with both feet, but I do recognize that if we break down, that could get ugly really quickly. If that’s going to be the case, then I anticipate that traders will continue to push and push, probably with a US dollar that’s rising at the same time.
Interest Rates and Inflationary Headwinds But really, at this point, I think you have to watch very closely the interest rate markets in the United States. If they continue to rally, I think that ends up being the death of silver, at least in the short term. The $50 level should continue to be important; going back decades, it’s been important, and I don’t see why that would be any different. This could be an excellent entry for longer-term traders, but we will have to wait and see if that opportunity arises.
I would be very interested in buying near that level, assuming that we stabilize. In the short term, though, it just looks like a market that can’t pick up its feet. There are concerns about inflation, and therefore there are concerns about interest rates rising, which works against the value of silver, especially when the US dollar rises in conjunction, which is exactly the play that we’ve seen. I continue to look at any rally in silver with suspicion.
