Crude oil prices rose at the start of the week after President Trump said the ceasefire was over and fighting had started again. Stock markets fell, while USD/JPY moved back toward recent highs. Later in the week, the U.S. agreed to continue talks with Iran, which caused oil prices to fall again.
There was little major economic data during the week, so markets focused on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The minutes showed that a few officials thought interest rates could be raised, but they still supported keeping rates unchanged. This was close to what markets expected, so the reaction was limited.
In Japan, Finance Minister Katayama said the government may encourage the GPIF and other pension funds to invest more in Japanese assets. She also spoke about gradual interest rate rises and more government bond products for households. These comments supported the yen and Japanese stocks, while higher-than-expected producer prices showed that inflation remains a concern.
Markets This Week U.S. Stocks The Dow fell from record highs early in the week as oil prices rose after fighting restarted in the Middle East. However, the uptrend stayed in place as the U.S. and Iran continued talks, helping the index close above its 10-day moving average. Buying short-term dips may remain the easier strategy, although higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data could create a chance to sell this week. Resistance levels are at 53,000, 53,500 and 54,000. Support is seen at 52,000, 51,000, 50,000, 49,500 and 49,000.
Japanese Stocks The Nikkei continued to move lower as investors took profits and higher oil prices worried the market. However, the index recovered late in the week after Finance Minister Katayama encouraged more investment in Japanese stocks. With selling pressure still strong near 70,000, range trading may remain the best approach this week. Resistance is seen at 70,000, 71,000, 72,000, 73,000, 74,000 and 75,000, while support is at 67,500, 66,500 and 65,000.
USD/JPY USD/JPY tested recent highs early in the week as oil prices moved higher. The pair then fell after the Japanese government called for pension funds to invest more in domestic assets, raising the possibility of less investment overseas. The close below the 10-day moving average is bearish, but higher U.S. interest rates should continue to support the pair unless Japanese authorities intervene. Range trading still appears to offer the best opportunities in the short and medium term. Resistance is at 162.00, 162.50, 163.00 and 165.00, while support is seen at 161.00, 160.50, 160.00, 159.00, 158.00, 157.00, 156.00, 155.50 and 155.00.
Gold Gold struggled to move higher early in the week as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the market. Prices later returned to the 10-day moving average, which provided support. With U.S. inflation data due this week, gold may stay volatile, creating range-trading opportunities between $4,000 and $4,200. Resistance is at $4,200, $4,300, $4,400, $4,500, $4,600 and $4,665, while support is at $4,100, $4,050, $4,000, $3,900, and $3,800.
Crude Oil Oil rose quickly after President Trump announced renewed fighting with Iran, but the market still expects a positive result from negotiations. Resistance held near $75, and although the recent downtrend has ended, large gains still look unlikely. Range trading between $67.50 and $75 may be the best short-term strategy. Resistance is at $75, $80, $85, $90, $95 and $100, while support is at $67.50, $65, and $60.
Bitcoin Bitcoin continued its recent recovery as buyers returned to the market. Resistance held near $65,000 and volatility remained low, but with the 10-day moving average now rising, buying on weakness may be a better strategy than range trading this week. Resistance is at $65,000, $75,000, $80,000, $85,000, and $90,000, while support is at $60,000, $55,000 and $50,000.
This Week’s Focus Monday: U.S. OPEC Meeting Tuesday: Australia NAB Business Confidence, Japan Industrial Production, China Trade Balance, U.S. CPI Wednesday: Japan Reuters Tankan Index, China GDP, Industrial Production and Chinese Unemployment Rate, E.U. Industrial Production, U.S. PPI and Beige Book Thursday: U.K. GDP and Industrial Production, E.U. Trade Balance, U.S. Retail Sales and Pending Home Sales Friday: E.U. Current Account and CPI, U.S. Housing Starts, Industrial Production and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Several important U.S. reports are due this week, including CPI, PPI, retail sales and consumer confidence. Traders will watch them for clues about when U.S. interest rates may rise. News about talks between the U.S. and Iran will also be important for oil and other markets, while traders will watch for more action from Japan to support the yen.
Titan FXhttp://titanfx.com
Titan FX is a technology driven online ECN forex and commodities broker that provides traders with next generation trading conditions, institutional grade spreads, fast trade execution, deep top tier liquidity and the security of financial registration and oversight.
EUR/USD started a recovery wave and climbed to test 1.1450. A rising channel or a possible bearish pennant is forming with resistance at 1.1500 on the 4-hour chart. GBP/USD recovered and tested the 1.3450 resistance. WTI Crude Oil prices struggled to stay above $75.00 and trimmed gains. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro recovered some losses and climbed above 1.1420 against the US Dollar. However, EUR/USD seems to be facing hurdles near 1.1475 and 1.1500.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair failed to clear the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1622 swing high to the 1.1324 low. It also struggled to settle above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and remained well below the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find support near 1.1380. The first major support could be near 1.1350. A downside break and close below 1.1350 might send the pair toward 1.1325. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1280.
On the upside, the bears might remain active near 1.1475. The next major resistance might be 1.1500. There is also a rising channel or a possible bearish pennant forming with resistance at 1.1500.
A close above the channel resistance could decrease selling pressure. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1580.
Looking at GBP/USD, the pair recovered some losses, tested the 1.3450 resistance, and now shows some signs of consolidation.
Titan FX is a technology driven online ECN forex and commodities broker that provides traders with next generation trading conditions, institutional grade spreads, fast trade execution, deep top tier liquidity and the security of financial registration and oversight.
Cable moves within a narrow-range sideways mode for the second consecutive day, after 1% advance last week that completed reversal pattern on weekly chart (after the downleg from 1.3869 was contained by ascending trendline, drawn off 1.0348, 2022 low) and generated positive signal on close above weekly Ichimoku cloud top (1.3335).
On the other side, the picture on daily chart is not that optimistic (14-d momentum remains in negative territory and turns south, stochastic is emerging from overbought territory) as long upper shadows on last two daily candles point to strong headwinds from very significant 1.3400 resistance zone (consisting of converged 200/100/55DMAs / 50% retracement of 1.3653/1.3140 / daily cloud base).
The second consecutive daily Doji candle signals strong indecision and risk of further hesitation and possible recovery stall on approach to pivotal 1.3400 resistance zone.
More likely scenario in the near term would be dips towards 1.3300 zone (psychological / 20DMA) which needs to contain dips and keep in play hopes for fresh acceleration higher and possible attack at 1.3400 zone barriers.
Conversely, firm break of 1.3300 handle would further weaken near-term structure and risk deeper drop.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The AUD/USD pair builds on its modest weekly bearish gap opening and retreats further from a two-and-a-half-week top, near the 0.6970 region, touched on Friday. Spot prices drop to the 0.6930-0.6925 area during the Asian session as escalating US-Iran tensions underpin the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).
Furthermore, a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices revives inflationary concerns and bolsters US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which provide an additional boost to the Greenback. However, a bullish technical setup warrants caution before confirming that the AUD/USD pair's recent recovery from a multi-month low, touched in June, has run out of steam.
From a technical perspective, the currency pair stays above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains marginally positive, hinting at a mild recovery and validating the positive outlook.
That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 still reflects only a tentative improvement from recently weak momentum. Furthermore, the recent repeated failures to break through the 38.2% Fibo. The level warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair as the market focus shifts to the latest US inflation figures this week.
In the meantime, immediate support is reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 0.6878, ahead of the 50.0% retracement level at 0.6849. A deeper protection emerges at the 61.8% Fibo. level around 0.6747, where buyers would be expected to reassert themselves on a more meaningful pullback.
On the flip side, a sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6951 is needed to back the case for additional gains towards the 23.6% retracement near 0.7077, which, if cleared, would give way to unlock a more decisive advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%0.16%0.23%0.07%0.26%-0.07%0.16%EUR-0.18%-0.01%0.04%-0.11%0.09%-0.21%-0.00%GBP-0.16%0.01%0.07%-0.10%0.14%-0.18%0.05%JPY-0.23%-0.04%-0.07%-0.16%0.04%-0.26%-0.01%CAD-0.07%0.11%0.10%0.16%0.20%-0.08%0.15%AUD-0.26%-0.09%-0.14%-0.04%-0.20%-0.26%-0.03%NZD0.07%0.21%0.18%0.26%0.08%0.26%0.24%CHF-0.16%0.00%-0.05%0.01%-0.15%0.03%-0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $4,070 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends its decline amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Traders will take more cues from the release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due on Tuesday.
The US military said that it launched additional strikes against Iran on Sunday aimed at further weakening the Islamic Republic’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a social media post that the strikes were designed to limit Iran’s ability to attack civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ongoing missile strikes between Washington and Tehran have boosted energy costs, triggering fresh inflation concerns and forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
The US CPI inflation data will take center stage on Tuesday. Analysts expect the headline CPI to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. If the report shows a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the US dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7972 compared to Friday's fix of 6.7989 and 6.7850 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $59.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. The price of the non-yielding white metal falls as escalating United States (US)-Iran missile strikes push oil higher, sparking fears of inflation and higher interest rates.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched additional strikes on Sunday evening, aimed at weakening Iran's capability to target civilian vessels navigating the waterway. US forces have hit more than 300 Iranian targets over a three-night span, including 140 on Saturday alone, while Washington and Tehran issued conflicting declarations regarding whether the strait remains open to maritime traffic.
This latest surge in hostilities has effectively reversed a portion of the market losses recorded last week, which had been driven by an interim US-Iran peace agreement that initially fueled expectations of increased Middle Eastern energy supplies. The sudden military escalation has also severely dampened hopes for continued diplomacy. Tehran is now digging in, insisting that Washington must fully honor its previous commitments regarding shipping transit and the normalization of Iranian oil exports before any further negotiations can resume.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be published later on Tuesday for further clues on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook. The headline CPI is expected to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period.
Markets are currently positioning for the Federal Reserve to deliver one more interest-rate increase before the year concludes. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as he makes his first official appearance before the US Congress this Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The EUR/USD pair edges lower to around 1.1400 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank Governor Christopher Waller and European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Isabel Schnabel are set to speak later in the day.
The US military said that it launched another round of strikes at Iran over the weekend, per CNN. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) then launched retaliatory drone and missile assaults on US allies across the Middle East, including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned US military attacks on Iran, accusing Washington of violating international law and warning neighboring countries not to assist any military action against the country. Another escalation in the diplomatic breakdown between the US and Iran could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.
Traders have ramped up their bets on ECB hikes again in recent days on signs that an agreement between Washington and Tehran to end the war is in jeopardy. The ECB raised the interest rates at the June policy meeting and markets expect it to do so twice more over the next year to contain the fallout from the Iran war on energy prices.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be published later on Tuesday. The headline CPI is expected to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. Any signs of softening inflation in the US could reduce pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates, weighing on the USD.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The EUR/USD ended the week on the back foot, surrendering its earlier poise during Friday’s session. From mid-week until that point, the pair had displayed a rather unexpected degree of composure, even as tensions in the Middle East flared up again. A sharp rebound in crude oil swiftly changed the market narrative by mid-week, herding investors back into cautious, defensive trades. By the final stages, however, the mood had darkened.
All eyes on US-Iran tensions again At the weekend, there was further escalation of tensions. The US initiated a new series of airstrikes in Iran after the IRGC forces targeted a vessel navigating the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway, crucial for global oil shipments, has now been declared closed by IRGC until further notice, and launched attacks on American military bases and their regional allies.
Retaliation from Tehran was inevitable, and one can easily imagine the situation spiralling quite rapidly. Of course, rhetoric can soften. We’ve seen that movie before.
But for now, traders are forced to assume the worst. That means the dollar continues to benefit from its dual role as both a high-yielder and a safe harbour, while the euro—particularly vulnerable given Europe’s energy import dependency—remains on the back foot. Stagflation fears, never far from the surface, are once again creeping back into the conversation.
CPI and Warsh Take Centre Stage Geopolitics aside, this week’s calendar is anything but quiet. All eyes turn to Wednesday’s US CPI release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony. With energy prices now firmly elevated, the inflation data takes on added significance. The risk skew is clearly tilted toward a hotter print, which would reinforce the narrative that the Fed may need to keep rates restrictive for longer—or even hike again later this year.
If that scenario plays out, expect US Treasury yields to push higher, further widening the interest rate differential that has been one of the dollar’s strongest pillars.
Technical EUR/USD outlook and levels to watch On the charts, the picture remains cautious. EUR/USD is carving out what looks increasingly like a bear flag on the daily timeframe—a continuation pattern that suggests the recent consolidation is just a pause before another leg lower.
Key levels to watch: Support: The 1.1400 zone remains the immediate line in the sand. A clean break below could open the door to 1.1300 fairly quickly. Resistance: On the upside, 1.1450 continues to cap rallies. A move above that would shift focus to 1.1500, with 1.1575 as the next meaningful hurdle. For now, the path of least resistance still points south.
The Bottom Line Unless we see a meaningful shift in the fundamental landscape—be it a sharp drop in oil prices, or a string of weak US data—the dollar’s yield advantage and safe-haven status are likely to keep any EUR/USD rallies well-contained. The near-term bias remains cautiously bearish, with geopolitics and inflation data set to dictate the next move.
The Australian dollar enters the week on uncertain footing after its recent recovery began to lose momentum. Australian consumer and business sentiment will be monitored, but the spotlight falls on Tuesday's US CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony. While CPI is likely to drive markets, traders will also be listening for any fresh policy signals from Warsh. Futures positioning, options markets and yield spreads point to growing downside risks, although a stronger US dollar may still be needed to trigger a meaningful move lower in AUD/USD.
View related analysis:
Nasdaq 100 Bulls Seek Swing Low, Though COT Positioning Lacks Conviction FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar, EUR, GBP, JPY | COT Report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bounce Lacks Conviction, ISM, FOMC Mins Loom AUD/USD Outlook 2026: Key Drivers for the Australian Dollar in Q3 How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders
Australian Business or Consumer Sentiment Unlikely to Shift the RBA I see a lot of data points, but only one or two with real substance. Australian consumer and business sentiment will be worth monitoring, but unless they deteriorate sharply, they are unlikely to be enough for the RBA to abandon its hawkish bias. While business confidence plunged back in March after the RBA’s tightening cycle began, negativity has eased across all industries and the headline figure has recouped around half of its losses from -29 to -14.
The main focus will, of course, be Tuesday's US inflation report. With inflation already expected to rise, the key question is whether the pace of the increase slows. ISM Services Prices Paid edged higher from already elevated levels, and a similar trend has emerged in recent CPI and PPI data. Producer prices and retail sales are also released on Wednesday and Thursday, although their impact will likely depend on whether Tuesday's CPI delivers any surprises.
US CPI Headlines a Busy Week for the US Dollar Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress will also be on traders' radar, although it may struggle to compete with US CPI for market attention. As this is one of his first major appearances as Fed chair, markets will be listening for clues on his policy stance and communication style. Unless he signals a meaningful shift in the Fed's outlook for inflation or interest rates, his remarks are unlikely to trigger a sustained move in the US dollar.
China's data dump, alongside Q2 GDP on Tuesday, also warrants a look. However, these releases have had little meaningful impact on global markets or the Australian dollar for some time.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report Net-short exposure continued to rise for a fourth consecutive week, although the move was driven primarily by a reduction in long positions rather than a surge in fresh short selling. The 7k increase in net-short exposure among large speculators lifted their bearish positioning to a 30-week high of 25.2k contracts. Asset managers, meanwhile, reduced their net-short exposure by 1.9k contracts.
While neither group is positioned near a sentiment extreme, neither appears especially bearish either. AUD/USD posted another modest bullish week following its extended selloff, and with markets entering one of the quieter periods of the year, volatility is likely to remain subdued unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.
AUD/USD Correlations
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Risk Reversals Turn Bearish as Yield Spread Weakens The downtrend on the daily chart remains intact, and bulls already appear to be losing momentum after a modest bounce from just below the 69c handle. Friday's bearish shooting star candle fell short of both the June 11 low (0.6979) and the monthly pivot point (0.6990), suggesting AUD/USD may be nearing the end of a three-wave countertrend bounce around its 20-day EMA.
Risk reversals have begun to turn lower, indicating that demand for puts is rising relative to calls. While they remain elevated relative to AUD/USD prices, the move points to a subtle shift in sentiment among options traders against the Aussie. More importantly, the AU-US two-year yield spread has turned lower and appears on the brink of breaking to a new cycle low. This could prove significant, as the spread led the top in AUD/USD by a couple of weeks.
While this paints a more bearish near-term picture for AUD/USD, a fresh catalyst and a notable rise in the US dollar may still be required before assuming a break below the 200-day EMA (0.6875), which sits near the lower one-week implied volatility band.
The US Dollar Index formed an inside week and a spinning top doji above the March high as prices consolidated around the 200-week EMA. If the index can hold above 100.50, the odds of renewed downside for AUD/USD remain elevated this week.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Australian Dollar Performance Across Major Currency Pairs It was another mixed week for the Australian dollar, and a clear game of two halves against its commodity FX peers. This ties in with my suspicion that moves in AUD/USD could remain limited, as the bigger macro trends tend to unfold when a currency's direction is broad-based.
The Aussie was effectively flat against the Canadian dollar, with AUD/CAD mostly trading between 0.98 and 0.99 within a sideways range, despite an otherwise solid uptrend. Yet the Aussie weakened against the New Zealand dollar for a second consecutive week, sending AUD/NZD to a five-week low after the RBNZ meeting, with bears now eyeing a potential break below 1.20.
AUD/EUR rose for a second week as the Aussie gained traction against the euro, and I suspect this could be an early signal for a slightly more bullish AUD/GBP after its third consecutive weekly decline posted a particularly narrow range.
A modest recovery in risk sentiment helped the Australian dollar rise against the safe havens. A weaker yen on Friday also provided support after the Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced that large institutions are being encouraged to buy domestic assets. While the policy is supportive of the yen over the longer term, it was not an intervention. A broadly weaker Swiss franc also helped AUD/CHF climb 0.9% for its best weekly performance in three months.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is holding close to 1.1415, despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that would normally be expected to support the US Dollar.
UniCredit believes the Dollar's muted response reflects a combination of higher global bond yields, resilient equity markets and fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase.
The bank identifies rising long-term yields outside the United States as the most important factor supporting the Euro.
According to UniCredit, higher German Bund and Japanese government bond yields are providing a "parachute" for other major currencies, reducing the Dollar's traditional safe-haven advantage during periods of geopolitical stress.
The bank also notes that minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting remained cautious on inflation but stopped short of signalling an imminent interest-rate hike, while global equity markets have remained remarkably resilient.
UniCredit adds that investors have become increasingly accustomed to shifts in President Trump's rhetoric, making markets less likely to react aggressively to geopolitical headlines alone.
Even so, the bank does not expect a sustained Dollar sell-off until diplomatic progress resumes.
According to UniCredit, "a rapid move back above 1.15 in EUR-USD... appears unlikely" while negotiations between the US and Iran remain stalled. At the same time, the risk of EUR/USD slipping back towards the year's low near 1.1325 "has therefore not disappeared" if tensions escalate further.
The first important range is $4382.62 to $3942.10. Its retracement zone at $4162.36 to $4214.34 is resistance. It stopped a rally on July 6 at $4202.71. Taking out this swing top will change the main trend to up.
The second range on my radar is $3942.10 to $4202.71. Its retracement zone at $4072.40 to $4041.65 was tested successfully last week although the market dipped to $4021.81 before rebounding to $4138.06.
Bearish traders are going to try to press prices through $4041.65, in an effort to pull-away from the $4202.71 swing top, aiming for a retest of $3942.10 and beyond.
Bullish traders are trying to create a secondary higher bottom at $4021.81, which is the normal precursor to a potential change in trend. To put it another way, $3942.10 to $4202.71, the first rally, was short-covering. The second rally is usually a combination of new buyers and lingering shorts. Counter-trend buyers are also trying to create the upside momentum needed to take out $4202.71, and change the main trend to up.
That’s our early focus for next week, resume the downtrend under $4021.81 or change the trend over $4202.71.
Until the market changes the trend to up, we’re not too concerned about the moving averages although they are trending lower.
Key Points:Rising producer prices, import costs and bond yields keep another BOJ rate hike in focus.USDJPY remains bullish above 160.30, with a break above 163.70 opening the door toward 175.GBPJPY may target 220, while EURJPY could extend toward 190.50 if key support levels hold.
PREMIUM
Read what the experts are trading this weekExclusive analysis from FXEmpire top analysts — curated insights you won't find on the free site.
In-depth analysis
Curated reports
Top analysts
Unlock Premium
The interest rate outlook for Japan remains uncertain as inflationary pressure continues to build. The producer prices are rising, import costs remain high and government bond yields have moved to multi-decade highs. These trends support the case for another Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike later this year. But the BOJ may still wait for stronger wage growth and increase in consumer inflation. This leaves the yen sensitive to policy signals, while USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remain technically strong.
BOJ Rate Hike Outlook Strengthens as Japan Inflation Rises Japan’s producer price index (PPI) increased by 7.1% YoY in June. This beat the market expectation of 6.8% and exceeded the upwardly revised 6.6% gain in May. The increase indicates that businesses are passing their increased input costs to customers faster than in the past. The trend could increase the consumer inflation and lead the BOJ to tighten again.
According to the data, the fuel prices increased by 22.8% while non-ferrous metal prices jumped by 39.2%. Energy prices were pushed up by the Middle East conflict while the AI material demand has lifted the metal prices. These pressures may remain high if tensions continue and supply conditions remain tight. This suggests that the BOJ may hike the interest rate in October.
A low yen is putting on a new layer of inflation. The import prices continued to rise as weak yen and higher energy costs raised the cost of imported goods. The chart below shows that Japan’s imports increased 12.5% to JPY 9,890.2 billion in May 2026. Now the BOJ must decide whether the higher import prices will spread into wages and consumer prices or remain at the wholesale level.
Japan Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs on Inflation Fears Japanese government bond yields are also pointing toward a higher interest rate environment. The 10-year JGB bond yield rose to a 2.90%, the highest rate since September 1996. It rose during nine consecutive sessions since 26 June, in response to rising oil prices, higher inflation and concerns about Japan’s fiscal health.
The strong drop in yields on Friday does not change the bullish trend. Rising yields suggest that the bond investors want greater compensation for the long term inflation risks.
The long term bond yields have increased with bigger momentum. The 20-year yield rose to 3.89%, while the 30-year yield reached 4.03%. The 40-year yield advanced to 4.055%. These moves indicate that investors are worried about the big government spending plans and that the policy may stay too loose and inflation will continue to rise.
But the shorter end of the yield curve is sending a more cautious signal. The 2-year yield reached to 1.445% and the 5-year yield reached to 1.99%. The yield gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields has increased significantly as seen in the chart below.
The steepening reflects a greater sense of inflation risk in the long end, and less confidence that the BOJ will hike soon. This suggests that BOJ may wait for stronger consumer prices and wages to increase its policy rate from 1% to 1.25%.
USDJPY Forecast: BOJ Rate Hike Risk Challenges Dollar Strength US–Japan Yield Gap Narrows as Japanese Yields Rise The interest rate outlook creates mixed environment for USDJPY. The yen should find support with higher Japanese yields and the prospect of another BOJ rate hike. A more hawkish BOJ could reduce the yield gap between Japan and the U.S. This would detract from any yen funded carry trades and may potentially lead to a lower USDJPY.
The chart below shows that the Japanese yields have increased much faster since 2022. But the U.S. yields have remained relatively high. As a result, the yield gap between the two countries has narrowed. This trend reduces the interest rate advantage of holding dollars over the yen. This may provide support for the Japanese currency. But the U.S. yields remain higher so the dollar still retains an important yield advantage.
But the low yen value still plays a crucial role in Japan’s inflation issues. As energy import prices go up, the demand for foreign currencies and the pressure on the yen increase. This might keep USDJPY high until the BOJ gives more clear indication of what it will do next. Any delay of the next rate hike would be positive for USDJPY while guidance of an October increase could trigger an import yen recovery.
USDJPY Break Above 163.70 Opens the Door to 175 From technical perspective, USDJPY is consolidating at the pivotal area of 160 to 162. The price is compressing within this region before an upside breakout. A break above this zone would likely open the door for strong surge in USDJPY toward the 175 target. This target is defined by the ascending channel pattern that extends from the 2023 lows.
The consolidation around this important region is also visible on the short term 4-hour chart. It shows that the pair is now consolidating between 160.30 and 163.70. The range is widening and prices are compressing within an ascending broadening wedge pattern. A break above 163.70 would indicate a stronger rally in USDJPY toward 166. But 160.30 remains strong support in the short term. Any correction is considered a buying opportunity for traders to push the pair higher.
GBPJPY Forecast: 218 Breakout Opens the Door to 220 Higher Japan rate expectations may also put pressure on GBPJPY. The very large interest rate differential between the United Kingdom and Japan has been good for the pound. But this advantage may weaken if the BOJ hikes the rates again to 1.25%. The higher Japanese bond yields could encourage investors to reduce carry trades and move capital back to yen.
But the pair may still be supported if Bank of England maintains higher rates or takes a conservative approach to rate cuts. Thus, GBPJPY will be reliant on both central banks’ relative directionality. The most bearish risk would be a hawkish BOJ and a softer Bank of England outlook.
GBPJPY also shows strong positive price action. This positive price action is reflected in the formation of inverted head and shoulders pattern from January 2026 to April 2026.
This bullish consolidation pattern broke higher in April 2026. After the breakout, the pair continued to rally on the strength of the pound and the weakness of the Japanese yen. The pair has already broken 216.30 and is now dropping back toward support to attract buyers. The 215.60 to 216.30 area remains strong support. A break above the 218 level would likely push the pair to further highs.
EURJPY Forecast: Bullish Trend Targets 190.50 Eurozone rate expectations are not that aggressive. Therefore, EURJPY could be more responsive to BOJ communication. If the European Central Bank pivots towards easier policy ahead of the BOJ’s next rate increase, the interest rate spread between Europe and Japan will narrow. This would provide support for the yen and increase the risk of a drop in EURJPY.
The outlook also depends on the global risk sentiments. The escalation in the conflict in the Middle East would drive up energy costs for Japan and Europe. But imported fuel needs could exert pressure on the yen in the near term for Japan. The EURJPY could hold steady ahead of the BOJ. But a clear sign that the bank will hike rates in October or at year’s end could generate a deeper pullback.
EURJPY also remains strong and is consolidating within rising trend lines. The immediate support remains at 183.50. The pair is also supported by the 200-day SMA at 182.80. If EURJPY continues higher, the immediate target remains 190.50. As long as the 180 level holds in EURJPY, the next move in the pair will likely be higher. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs are rising which indicates that any correction may attract new buyers.
Final Words The interest rate outlook in Japan remains tilted towards further tightening. The producer prices are high, import costs are increasing and bond yields are rising. These factors suggest another BOJ rate hike. But the central bank might still wait for the clear signals from wages and consumer inflation. A rate hike from 1% to 1.25% could be on the cards later this year if energy prices remain elevated and the yen remains weak.
If BOJ hints at a rate hike in October or at the end of the year, the yen could get some support. But the technical picture of USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remains bullish. A break above 163.70 in USDJPY would open the door for a rally to 175. GBPJPY might push higher towards 220 and EURJPY could head to 190.50.
Read more: Weak Jobs Data Hits Fed Hike Odds as Dollar Tests Support
Related Articles
U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Traders Focus On Potential De-Escalation In The Middle East: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPYCurrencies Forecast: Interest Rate Differentials Drive US Dollar ResilienceWith Dropping Rates, Will We See Risk Appetite Return?About the Author
Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has eased back to around 1.4160 after retreating from June's highs above 1.42, with the Canadian Dollar finding support from firmer oil prices and improving risk sentiment.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41574 (-0.07%)
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.897869 (-0.13%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.616046 (-0.23%)
ING believes the Canadian Dollar can remain relatively well supported in the near term, although it does not expect USD/CAD to fall back below the key 1.40 level over the next couple of months.
The bank notes that higher oil prices and a modest repricing of Bank of Canada expectations have helped the Loonie outperform the US Dollar this week.
However, ING argues that the bar for a more hawkish Bank of Canada remains high. Unless oil prices return to the elevated levels seen during April and May, inflation pressures should remain sufficiently contained for policymakers to stay cautious.
According to ING, uncertainty surrounding the future of the USMCA trade agreement is likely to keep a risk premium embedded in the Canadian Dollar during the third quarter.
The bank says that while recent support for the Loonie is encouraging, "we still think USMCA-related risk premium can be added throughout 3Q and don't expect a return below 1.40 in the next couple of months."
ING expects next week's Bank of Canada meeting to deliver no major policy surprises, with attention remaining focused on employment, inflation and developments in North American trade negotiations.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD +0.19%-0.41%+0.21%-0.30%-0.18%-0.85%+0.61%EUR-0.19% -0.59%+0.03%-0.49%-0.37%-1.04%+0.43%GBP+0.41%+0.59% +0.62%+0.10%+0.22%-0.45%+1.02%JPY-0.21%-0.03%-0.62% -0.51%-0.39%-1.06%+0.40%CAD+0.30%+0.49%-0.10%+0.52% +0.12%-0.55%+0.92%AUD+0.18%+0.37%-0.22%+0.40%-0.12% -0.67%+0.80%NZD+0.86%+1.05%+0.45%+1.07%+0.55%+0.67% +1.48%CHF-0.61%-0.42%-1.01%-0.40%-0.91%-0.79%-1.46% The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Swiss Franc, where Canadian Dollar made its strongest advance. Data comparing prices today (11/07/2026 19:16 UTC) and daily close on 04/07/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
The US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) exchange rate is trading around 6.78 after retreating steadily through 2026, with the Yuan continuing to outperform many major currencies.
Westpac expects the Renminbi to strengthen further over the next two years, forecasting USD/CNY will fall to 6.75 by September, 6.70 by year-end and eventually reach 6.30 by the end of 2028.
The bank argues that China's long-term currency outlook is becoming increasingly favourable as the country expands its influence over global trade and investment.
According to Westpac, China’s “greatest opportunity” is a sustained recovery in domestic consumption, which would help balance growth away from exports and support broader confidence in the economy.
The bank believes stronger household demand, together with continued investment in advanced manufacturing and technology, should reinforce the structural case for a stronger Renminbi.
Westpac also expects China's growing role in global trade and financial markets to underpin the currency over time.
According to the bank, the Renminbi is forecast to “sustainably appreciate back to 2022 and 2018's… highs against the US dollar, circa CNY6.30,” adding that a move beyond that level is possible once the currency's expanding role in international trade and capital flows becomes more widely recognised.
Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels Gold has spent five consecutive weeks defending a pivotal support zone near the yearly lows. Repeated attempts to force a sustained breakdown have failed, raising the risk of a larger price inflection. The July opening range is forming just above support, increasing the importance of the next directional break. U.S. CPI and PPI data next week could provide the catalyst that resolves the current stalemate. Resistance 4319, 4492-4540 (key), 4894- Support 4074-4112 (key), 3887, 3570 For more than a month, sellers have repeatedly pressed the same technical floor without securing a decisive weekly breakdown. That resilience has left XAU/USD locked in an increasingly important consolidation as the July opening range develops and the broader March decline begins to lose momentum. With U.S. inflation data due next week, the next move could determine whether Gold is building a durable base or merely pausing before another leg lower. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was trading into pivotal support and that, “From a trend standpoint, the threat rises for an exhaustion low in the weeks ahead… From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4074 IF price is heading for a larger recovery with a breach above 4540 needed to suggest a more meaningful reversal is underway.” Despite multiple intraweek attempts, the bears have been unable to mark a weekly close below this key support barrier with the July opening range now taking shape just above. We will be looking for the breakout for guidance here with the March downtrend vulnerable while above this pivot zone.
Initial weekly resistance is eyed at the 52-week moving average (currently near ~4272) and is backed closely by medium-term bearish invalidation at the objective yearly open at 4319. Note that channel resistance converges on this level into the close of month. Key resistance remains unchanged at 4493-4540- a region defined by the March low-week close (LWC), the 38.2% retracement of the of the March decline, and the 2025 high-close. A breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.
Weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the March decline, the March low, and the October high-week reversal close (HWC) at 4074-4112. Price has been testing this support barrier for five-weeks now and a break / close below this level could fuel another bout of accelerate losses towards subsequent support objectives at the October swing low at 3887 backed by the trendline confluence near 3700 and the 100% extension at 3570. Both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Bottom line: Gold is testing pivotal support with price carving the Jul opening-range just above. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, this support would need to hold IF price is heading for a larger recovery here with a breach / weekly close above the yearly open needed to invalidate the March downtrend.
Highlighting the economic calendar next week will be the release of key U.S. inflation data, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Tuesday followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. After Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% target, markets will be closely scrutinizing the data for clues on the future path of monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would likely reinforce expectations for additional Fed tightening, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while weighing on gold prices. Conversely, softer inflation data could temper rate-hike expectations, easing pressure on bullion and allowing gold to further stabilize above this pivotal support zone. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts British Pound (GBP/USD) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading around 1.1415 after losing more than 2% during June and struggling to build a sustained recovery in July.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its six- and 12-month EUR/USD forecasts to 1.12, compared with previous targets of 1.18 and 1.20 respectively.
The bank expects a divided US Dollar environment, with the Greenback likely to strengthen further against lower-yielding currencies such as the Euro while losing ground against selected higher-carry currencies.
According to Goldman Sachs, the forecast revisions reflect an “ongoing divided Dollar environment” rather than an expectation of uniform Dollar gains across the foreign exchange market.
The bank expects US interest rates to remain at 3.50-3.75% for the rest of 2026, while resilient economic growth and persistent inflation should keep US yields relatively attractive.
Goldman Sachs forecasts US growth of 2.0% in 2026 and expects core PCE inflation to end the year at 3.0%, reducing the case for rapid Federal Reserve easing.
These conditions should continue to favour the Dollar against the Euro, with Goldman Sachs now expecting EUR/USD to fall towards 1.12 over both the six- and 12-month horizons.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has retreated to around 1.4160 after reaching highs above 1.42 earlier this month, with the Canadian Dollar showing signs of stabilising following its steep May and June losses.
Scotiabank believes the CAD sell-off may have run its course as short-term US-Canada interest-rate spreads reverse some of their earlier widening.
The bank expects Canada's June labour-market report to be an important near-term test. Economists forecast a 10,000 increase in employment, unchanged unemployment at 6.6% and a modest rebound in wage growth.
Scotiabank notes that May delivered an unusually strong 87,800 rise in employment, driven by large full-time job gains and an increase in hours worked.
According to the bank, "decent job gains, firm wages and more gains in hours worked would be positive for the CAD", potentially allowing USD/CAD to make another attempt below 1.4150.
A more substantial Canadian Dollar recovery would still require a clearer narrowing in US-Canada rate spreads. Scotiabank believes that could become more likely if upcoming US inflation data are softer than expected.
From a technical perspective, the bank says price action supports the view that the US Dollar rally has peaked, although bullish momentum has not yet been decisively broken.
A sustained move below 1.4150 would open the way towards 1.4075-1.4080, while Scotiabank remains confident that the 1.4250-1.4300 region will cap renewed USD gains.
The price of Gold has recovered from June's sharp sell-off, and HSBC believes the precious metal can continue to rebound even as a hawkish Federal Reserve keeps US yields elevated.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded near $4,165 on Friday, up almost 1% on the day after rebounding more than 3% since the start of July.
The recovery follows an almost 12% decline in June, when prices briefly slipped below $4,000.
Image: Gold price in US Dollars - 2 day chart HSBC says the stronger US Dollar and higher real interest rates remain near-term headwinds, but argues that the recent correction has already priced in much of the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift.
The bank believes gold's longer-term fundamentals remain favourable despite the tougher macro backdrop, pointing to continued central-bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over rising government debt.
HSBC argues that even if the Fed keeps interest rates higher for longer, structural demand should continue to underpin bullion.
Image: XAU/USD 6 month historical chart
The bank also expects official-sector buying to remain an important source of support, while investors are likely to rebuild positions once confidence grows that US yields have peaked.
Although HSBC acknowledges further volatility is likely in the near term, it believes gold should continue to "shine through" the current hawkish environment rather than enter a prolonged bear market.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has slipped back towards 1.1415 as investors continue to favour the US Dollar following resilient US economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
HSBC believes EUR/USD is likely to face renewed downside pressure as markets shift their focus back to interest-rate differentials.
The bank notes that geopolitical concerns in the Middle East have eased, reducing one source of support for the Dollar. However, it argues that renewed disruption to shipping routes could quickly restore safe-haven demand for the US currency.
According to HSBC, firm US labour market conditions and sticky inflation continue to justify a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, keeping longer-term yield support firmly behind the Dollar.
The bank also highlights that Eurozone inflation has cooled, but underlying price pressures remain elevated, leaving the European Central Bank in a difficult position.
HSBC argues that "the EUR loses out on fundamentals", with interest-rate differentials now re-emerging as the dominant driver of EUR/USD.
The bank adds that the outlook could deteriorate further if energy prices rise again, warning that renewed disruption in the Middle East would increase stagflation risks for the Eurozone and add fresh pressure on the single currency.
Silver price retreats on Friday during the North American session, edging down by 0.54%, weighed by high US Treasury yields and a sudden shift in market sentiment, after US President Trump revealed that the ceasefire is “over.” At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $59.66.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookSilver is downward biased, as the market structure continues to respect the series of lower highs and lower lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, below its 50-neutral level and aiming towards oversold territory. Given the reasons mentioned above and geopolitical uncertainty, the XAG/USD’s path of least resistance is downwards.
For a bearish resumption, traders must clear the July 8 daily low of $57.22. Below is the year-to-date (YTD) low of 55.63, set on June 22, as the white metal dropped below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) since mid-June. A breach of those two levels opens the door to a move towards the November 13, 2025, high-turned-support at $54.30.
On the flip side, Silver can shift neutral if buyers reclaim a downslope resistance trendline drawn from around June highs within the $62.25-$62.50 area. Once hurdled, this opens the door to challenge the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, each at $69.94 and $70.31.
XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Spot gold weekly chart shows long-term bull trend structure at risk. Source: TradingView Otherwise, a decline below $3,886 would signal a continuation of the bearish correction and confirm a failure of support at the long-term uptrend line. That line has been in place for over two years, defining dynamic trend support. The other significant long-term trend support indicator, the 200-day moving average, failed as support in early June. That suggests that the trendline is vulnerable to failure as well. A breakdown from this area would therefore represent a significant deterioration in gold’s broader technical outlook.
Lower High Keeps Short-Term Pressure Intact This week produced a new lower swing high for gold at $4,203, which is now a key component of the near-term bearish trend structure. By itself, that is a bearish indication since it suggests a potential continuation of the declining trend. However, since gold has already corrected by around 29.6% from the $5,597 peak and it remains in a potentially significant support zone, signs of strength could lead to a reclaim of the 20-day moving average and a bullish continuation signal above $4,203. Therefore, the next move will likely depend on whether buyers can defend support and reverse the developing sequence of lower highs.
Bullish Confirmation Requires Key Breakout A decisive advance above the three-day high of $4,138 will confirm a higher swing low from Wednesday at $4,021 and a reclaim of the 20-day moving average near $4,129. Further signs of strength should follow leading to a continuation signal above $4,203. That would put gold on track to test higher targets, starting around the 50-day moving average at $4,352. Until then, the key question remains whether current support can hold long enough to allow the recovery scenario outlined at the beginning of this analysis to develop.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats on Friday during the North American session, pressured by US President Donald Trump's comments allowing the resumption of US-Iran talks, but reiterating that the ceasefire is “over.” The XAU/USD pair trades at around $4,103, down 0.48%.
XAU/USD falls as renewed war risks lift yields and DollarThe yellow metal seems poised to end the week down 0.51%, driven by the escalation of the conflict. The Greenback erased its earlier losses, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value against six currencies, holds firm at 100.94, unchanged.
In his Truth Social account, President Trump posted, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue 'talks.' We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
After the post, US Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year T-note up 2 basis points to 4.569%, amid fears that energy prices could rise, fueling fears of higher interest rates if hostilities continued.
Money markets have priced in an 80% chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase at the September meeting. Odds for the July 29 meeting suggest that the central bank will hold rates, with the chances for a hike being shy of 34%, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalThe US economic docket was light this week, with the release of the FOMC's last meeting minutes, which were closely scrutinised for the absence of forward guidance. The minutes showed that officials are concerned about inflation, with a “few participants” seeing the case for a rate hike.
On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below estimates of 218K and the previous reading of 217K, an indication that the labor market is stable.
Now eyes turn to next week's economic docket, with investors eyeing the release of US inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before the US Congress.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains bearish below the 200-day SMAGold’s downtrend remains in play, as the market structure of a successive series of lower highs and lower lows is intact. Alongside this, momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is declining and is now in bearish territory, and XAU’s spot price is below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,493.
With all three of those reasons in play, Bullion prices might continue to edge lower, so any leg-up could be an opportunity for sellers.
XAU/USD first support would be the July 8 swing low of $4,021. Beneath lies the June 30 swing low of $3,941, followed by the October 28, 2025, swing low of $3,886.
Going upwards, if Gold surpasses a downslope resistance trendline near $4,200, it opens the door for challenging the $4,300 milestone. Above this area, the next ceiling level is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,493.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels EUR/USD is holding above a key support zone as with the July opening range carved just above. The broader April downtrend remains vulnerable while above support – risk for price inflection ahead. A break below support would reinforce the bearish outlook while a topside breakout would strengthen the case that a more significant low is in place. U.S. CPI and PPI data next week could provide the catalyst for the next directional move. Resistance 1.1483/92 (key), 1.1576/78, 1.1646/49- Support 1.1355/60 (key), 1.1276, 1.1214 EUR/USD continues to trade within an increasingly compressed range, with both the weekly and monthly opening ranges developing just above a major support zone. The repeated failure to break lower has left the April downtrend vulnerable near-term, while buyers still need a decisive breakout to suggest a more durable low is in place. With key U.S. inflation data due next week, the stage is set for a move that could determine the pair's next directional trend. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD had rebounded nearly 1% off the June low and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1675 IF EUR/USD is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the weekly open needed to threaten another test of the monthly lows.” Euro broke sharply lower later that day with the decline extending more than 2.9% off the June high before rebounding off confluent support into the close of the month. The July opening range has been carved just above, and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead with the April downtrend vulnerable while above this pivotal support zone.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD holding a tight range this week, just below the median line. Key support rests with the yearly low-day close (LDC) and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance at 1.1355/60. A break / daily close below this threshold would mark a break of the monthly opening range and threaten resumption of the May downtrend toward subsequent support objectives at the 2023 high at 1.1275 and the 2024 high at 1.1214- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Resistance is eyed at 1.1483/92- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the April decline and the November low-day close (LDC). Noe that channel resistance extending off the May high (red) converges on this level early next week and a breach / daily close above would be needed to validate a breakout of the July opening range and a suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the May / January lows at 1.1576/78 and the 200-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the April decline at 1.1646/49.
Bottom line: The weekly opening range is preserved within the broader monthly opening range, just above support. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1492 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.
The focus next week shifts to the release of June U.S. inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. Following Chair Warsh's renewed commitment to restoring inflation to the Fed's 2% target, the reports will be closely watched for clues on the future path of U.S. monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce expectations for additional Fed tightening, supporting Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar while increasing downside risks for EUR/USD. Conversely, softer inflation data could temper expectations for further policy tightening, weighing on the greenback and providing scope for a broader recovery in the euro. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Euro Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.
Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Stalls at 2024 High as Intervention Risk Builds US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Targets Next Major Resistance British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Rebound Challenges Bear Trend --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Overall, both inflation indicators remain above the official Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target of 2.0%. This uncomfortable reality has forced market participants to reconsider their monetary policy expectations. Many concluded that interest rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future and even started to factor in the possibility of further monetary tightening. As a result, gold (XAUUSD) dropped sharply on the day the May inflation report came out, dropping by 3.57% and touching a critical 4,100 mark.
Gold Reaction It seems counterintuitive that gold would sell off in the face of climbing inflation. After all, gold is supposed to act as an inflation hedge, is it not? The reality is more complicated. While the narrative that gold is an inflation hedge is valid, it is true only in the long term. In the short term, gold behaves more like a currency proxy and a zero-coupon bond.
Here’s a quick schematic explanation.
High inflation (hot CPI) ➡️ Hawkish Fed (tighter monetary policy/higher interest rates)️ ➡️ Capital flows into USD ➡️️ Stronger Dollar ➡️️ Less affordable gold + higher opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals ➡️ Gold is sold and price drops
The immediate reaction of a hot CPI print is that investors begin to expect higher interest rates. Therefore, the yields on U.S. government bonds (which, incidentally, compete with gold for safe-haven capital) rise. When nominal yields rise above near-term inflation expectations, real yields turn positive.
Subsequently, when a trader can get a virtually guaranteed, low-free real return in the U.S. debt market, holding a non-yielding asset like physical gold becomes costly and unwise. In other words, the opportunity cost of holding gold goes up. Thus, capital shifts out of metals markets and into bond markets. Additionally, hawkish repricing of the Fed usually pushes the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) up—in other words, the greenback appreciates vis-à-vis other currencies. A stronger dollar automatically makes bullion less affordable for holders of other currencies, exerting downward pressure on gold and compounding the sell-off.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm on Friday during the North American session as risk appetite deteriorated after US President Donald Trump posted on social media that the ceasefire with Iran is over, even though negotiations continue. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3406, unchanged, after reaching an almost one-month high of 1.3451 earlier in the day. Read More...
British Pound surrenders early gains as US Dollar regains groundThe British Pound (GBP) gives back its early gains and turns almost flat around 1.3410 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair falls back as the US Dollar regains ground amid fears that the restart of the war between the United States (US) and Iran would last long. Read More...
British Pound gains traction above 1.3400 as markets bet on BoE rate hikesThe GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3430 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on the UK government leadership transition and growing expectations of further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes. Read More...
AUD/USD advances toward the 0.6960 area on Friday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) and renewed strength in the Chinese Yuan (CNY). The pair continues to recover on the four-hour chart, although escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are limiting broader risk appetite.
US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Iran had requested further negotiations and that Washington had agreed to continue talks. However, Trump warned that the ceasefire was “over,” raising concerns that hostilities could intensify despite diplomatic channels remaining open.
Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan strengthened to a one-week high against the US Dollar, offering additional support to the Australian Dollar given Australia’s close trade ties with China. The move followed a stronger fixing from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which set the USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7989, below the key 6.8000 level.
The latest price action also points to improving momentum in AUD/USD. The pair is trading above its short and medium-term moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in positive territory without signaling overbought conditions.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a restrictive policy stance, supporting the USD and limiting further gains in AUD/USD. Softer inflation, by contrast, could weigh on the Greenback and help the pair extend its advance.
In Australia, attention will turn to Consumer Inflation Expectations. The report will offer fresh insight into how households expect prices to develop over the coming year and could influence expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6956, retaining a mildly bullish tone as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6938 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6934. The clustering of short and medium-term SMAs beneath price suggests a supportive backdrop, while the RSI around 58 indicates constructive but not overextended bullish momentum, leaving room for further upside provided immediate overhead barriers are challenged.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 0.6958, ahead of a tighter cap at 0.6961, with a more notable barrier emerging at 0.6970, where buying pressure could start to fade if momentum cools. On the downside, first support is seen at 0.6949, followed by the 20-period SMA at 0.6938 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6934, where a break back below these levels would undermine the current constructive bias and hint at a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD remains on the front foot on Friday and is heading for a second consecutive weekly gain after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday and signaled that further policy tightening may be needed, boosting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.5771 after hitting an intraday high of 0.5794, its highest level since June 18.
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has been recovering after bottoming at 0.5626 in late June, its lowest level since November 2025. The latest leg higher pushed NZD/USD above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5717, reinforcing the bullish near-term outlook.
Momentum has also improved, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above the neutral 50 threshold after recovering from near-oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting bearish momentum is fading rather than confirming a sustained bullish reversal, as NZD/USD continues to trade below a cluster of key moving averages.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the psychological 0.5800 mark, closely aligning with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5815, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.5820 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5838.
A decisive break above these levels could pave the way for a move toward the horizontal resistance levels at 0.5900 and 0.6000.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the 21-day SMA at 0.5718. A move back below this level would weaken the near-term bullish bias and bring the late-June low of 0.5626 back into focus.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.09%-0.66%-0.24%-0.26%-0.30%-0.06%EUR0.06%-0.03%-0.55%-0.18%-0.21%-0.25%0.00%GBP0.09%0.03%-0.54%-0.15%-0.18%-0.21%0.02%JPY0.66%0.55%0.54%0.41%0.39%0.32%0.57%CAD0.24%0.18%0.15%-0.41%-0.03%-0.07%0.17%AUD0.26%0.21%0.18%-0.39%0.03%-0.05%0.17%NZD0.30%0.25%0.21%-0.32%0.07%0.05%0.23%CHF0.06%-0.01%-0.02%-0.57%-0.17%-0.17%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Silver (XAG/USD) trades slightly lower on Friday, hovering around $59.90 at the time of writing, down a modest 0.08% on the day. The white metal is struggling to extend its rebound as renewed tensions in the Middle East fuel concerns about persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates.
The resumption of hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran has revived concerns over energy supplies, lifting Oil prices and strengthening expectations of persistent inflation. This backdrop keeps expectations for monetary tightening alive and weighs on non-yielding assets such as Silver.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a high chance of at least one interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook is also supporting the US Dollar (USD), whose rebound is limiting the appeal of USD-denominated precious metals.
Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor the latest diplomatic developments between Washington and Tehran. Media reports indicate that technical talks are continuing despite the military clashes, raising hopes of a de-escalation that could ease tensions in energy markets.
Attention now turns to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. The inflation report could shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path and provide the next major catalyst for Silver prices.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
GBP/USD 100726 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving higher as traders bet that the situation in the Middle East will calm down. In absence of economic reports, geopolitical developments serve as the key catalyst for GBP/USD. In case U.S. and Iran restart negotiations and do not attack each other, demand for risk assets will increase, providing additional support to the British pound.
The nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3450 – 1.3465 range. If GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3465 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.3535 – 1.3550 range.
On the support side, GBP/USD needs to settle below the 1.3400 level to have a chance to gain downside momentum in the near term. A move below 1.3400 will push GBP/USD towards the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350.
If we break down below the $3,900 level, it’s very likely that we go looking to the $3,500 level, an area that I think would be very important based on previous resistance and an ascending triangle that formed there. To the upside, if we can break above the 50-week EMA right around the $4,250 level, then it could be a sensible place to assume that there’s a recovery in the gold market.
US Dollar and Higher Bond Yields Create Structural Obstacles The biggest problem that gold has, of course, is interest rates in the United States and the stronger US dollar. As long as the US dollar remains somewhat strong against the backdrop of other currencies around the world and in the backdrop of higher-than-usual rates, it’s difficult to imagine that gold takes off.
I think that a lot of what’s going on is the noise around the Middle East has people concerned about inflation, and that inflation has people driving rates higher, which means that larger money can get a return with a bond instead of going into non-yielding assets like gold. It’s just basic portfolio construction, I think, that is a big problem for gold at the moment.
Fundamental Pressures and Technical Boundaries If we get over the 50-week EMA at $64.20, then maybe we have a little bit of a move to the upside, maybe $70 waiting to happen, but as things stand right now from a fundamental standpoint, it makes no sense to put money in a non-yielding asset if you can get elevated rates out of a bond, for example. It’s a risk-free trade or as close to risk-free as it gets.
That being said, in the longer term, I do think that the demand for silver will be part of the story again, but we have to get past the inflation concerns. After all, rates are rising because of inflation, and although some people would expect that to drive the price of silver up, it’s a different type of inflation. It’s not a massive demand; it’s a supply-side problem, not in silver as much as everything. We’re still worried about that stagflation-type issue.
British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels GBP/USD has nearly erased the latest decline after rebounding sharply from key support at the yearly low. The recovery is once again approaching the same resistance zone that rejected Sterling last month - the near-term advance remains vulnerable while below. A sustained breakout would invalidate the recent downtrend and strengthen the case for a larger trend reversal while failure would keep the broader range intact. U.S. inflation data next week could provide the catalyst for the next major move in Sterling. Resistance 1.3460/74 (key), 1.3591, 1.3648/85- Support 1.3326, 1.3194/99 (key), 1.3092 The battle for control of GBP/USD is shifting back to a familiar battleground. After recovering sharply from support at the yearly lows, Sterling is once again confronting the yearly open and a major Fibonacci resistance zone that rejected price just weeks ago. The coming sessions should help determine whether buyers can finally force a meaningful breakout or if this latest recovery proves to be another counter-trend rally within the broader range. With U.S. inflation data looming next week, the macro backdrop may provide the catalyst for the next major move. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that the Sterling recovery had stretched into pivotal resistance at the 2026 yearly open, “and marks the first test for the bulls.” GBP/USD reversed sharply off resistance later that week with the decline extending more than 2.5% off the June highs. Price rebounded into the close of the month off lateral support at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance with a two-week rally nearly erasing the entire decline. Sterling is once again trading into pivotal resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the May decline and the objective yearly open at 1.3460/73. The focus is on possible inflection off this threshold with the multi-week advance vulnerable while below.
Initial weekly support rests with the May low close at 1.3326 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement and the 2026 low-week close (LWC) at 1.3194/99. Note that a break / weekly close below this threshold would constitute a breakout of the yearly opening range and threaten the next major leg of the decline. Subsequent support rests with the 2026 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3092.
A breach / weekly close above this key pivot zone would invalidate the May downtrend and fuel a larger recovery within the yearly range. The next technical considerations beyond this level are eyed with the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 1.3591 and the 2025 & 2026 high week closes (HWC) at 1.3648/84- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: The Sterling rally is now approaching pivotal Fibonacci resistance into the yearly open- risk for price inflection into this zone in the weeks ahead. Watch the weekly close today with respect to the 52-week moving average (currently ~1.3406) for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 1.3326-1.3474 range for guidance with the near-term long-bias vulnerable below the yearly open.
The UK economic docket is rather light over the next few days with the U.S. June CPI & PPI data highlighting event risk next week. Stay nimble into the releases and respect the weekly close. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
GBP/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
GBP/JPY trades under pressure on Friday after comments from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama boosted the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 217.10, down 0.30% on the day.
Katayama said the government would encourage domestic pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to increase their holdings of Japanese financial assets.
However, the remarks did little to reverse the Yen's broad-based weakness, leaving GBP/JPY pinned near levels last seen in 2008 and on track for a third consecutive weekly gain.
Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) remains the strongest-performing G10 currency in recent weeks, supported by Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets and easing political uncertainty in the United Kingdom.
From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY maintains a bullish bias on the daily chart, holding above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), reinforcing the broader uptrend.
The cross also remains above the horizontal support at 216.50, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62.54, remaining in bullish territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in positive territory at 0.33, suggesting upside momentum remains constructive.
On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 218.00 horizontal barrier. A sustained break above this level could pave the way for an extension of the broader uptrend.
Initial support is seen at 216.50, followed by the 50-day SMA at 214.31 and the 100-day SMA at 213.51. The 200-day SMA at 210.57 provides the next major support if a deeper corrective pullback unfolds.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%-0.07%-0.36%-0.15%-0.09%-0.20%0.05%EUR-0.03%-0.11%-0.39%-0.18%-0.13%-0.26%0.02%GBP0.07%0.11%-0.28%-0.07%-0.03%-0.15%0.11%JPY0.36%0.39%0.28%0.21%0.27%0.11%0.39%CAD0.15%0.18%0.07%-0.21%0.05%-0.09%0.18%AUD0.09%0.13%0.03%-0.27%-0.05%-0.13%0.11%NZD0.20%0.26%0.15%-0.11%0.09%0.13%0.26%CHF-0.05%-0.02%-0.11%-0.39%-0.18%-0.11%-0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
That being said, in the longer term, I do like silver in the sense that there is a major lack of supply for the demand that is still out there. As long as interest rates and inflation concerns are still out there, people jumping in and taking advantage of those higher yields in the bond market, a non-yielding asset like silver is going to struggle. This is especially true with the US dollar strengthening, but when you look at silver against other currencies, it is doing better, which makes a certain amount of sense.
So ultimately, I think we just bounce around here, pay attention to $57. If we break down through there, then it is likely that we really start to sell off. Rallies I do not trust, but if we were to break above the 200-day EMA, then obviously something will have changed, as we can reevaluate the market itself.
Gold is treading water above 4,000 support, with its moving averages capping the upside. Source: TradingView The gold market has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Friday, and what I find interesting is that every time we rally, there is a little bit of hesitation. Furthermore, we have the 50-day EMA breaking down below the 200-day EMA, which opens up the possibility of the so-called Death Cross kicking off, and longer-term traders will possibly be paying attention to it.
Key Technical Overhead and Dollar Strength Cap Upside Potential The $4,000 level underneath is significant support, and I do think that a lot of people will watch that. If we were to break down below the $4,000 level, I think once you get below $3,900, then you start to see a significant drop, perhaps down to the $3,500 level. This is a market are that I think a lot of value hunters will be willing to take advantage of.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surrenders its early gains and slides 0.73% to near $59.50 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal turns negative amid fears that the next monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be on the upside.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year is almost 80%.
Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Hawkish Fed prospects remain firm amid fears of a prolonged United States (US)-Iran war, a scenario that will keep the energy supply disrupted. According to the Iranian state media, the US forces struck several more locations in coastal Iran.
The longer the aggression between the US and Iran continues, the more likely it is that oil prices will remain higher.
In the last few months, the Silver price underperformed as higher oil prices de-anchored global inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, a sharp recovery in the US Dollar is also hurting the Silver price. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 100.87. The DXY recovered after revisiting the three-week low of 100.60.
Going forward, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes EUR/USD has rebounded after forming an interim low near 1.1325 and moved back into its prior range, signalling limited follow-through on the earlier breakdown. The bank stresses that resistance at 1.1475/1.1500 must be cleared to extend the bounce, while a drop below 1.1390 would risk resuming the broader downtrend.
Bounce capped by 1.1500 barrier"EUR/USD has staged a modest rebound after carving out an interim low around 1.1325. The pair has re-integrated within previous range, indicating a lack of follow-through after the recent breakdown."
"However, clear signals of a large up move are not yet visible. The recent pivot high at 1.1475/1.1500 is the first layer of resistance. Overcoming this will be crucial for signalling an extension of the bounce."
"Conversely, there could be a risk of a continuation of the downtrend if the pair breaches the recent pivot low at 1.1390."
"Euro bid for second day as dust settles around oil prices. Support 1.1390, resistance 1.1500. Massive option expiries at 1.1370-85 (€1.3bn), 1.1400-50 (€6.5bn). US CPI, PPI, Warsh semi-annual testimony next week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Friday, struggling to build on the previous day's gains and heading for a weekly loss as renewed hostilities in the Middle East have revived fears of energy-driven inflation and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,098, down 0.60% on the day.
The metal, however, lacks follow-through selling as traders reassess US-Iran tensions following reports that technical talks are continuing despite the military clashes, prompting a pullback in crude Oil prices.
Can Gold stage a sustained recovery?While Gold has staged a modest rebound from $3,941, its lowest level since November 2025, the metal is struggling to attract meaningful buying interest.
Since the US-Iran war broke out in February, Gold has behaved less like a traditional safe-haven asset and more like a rate-sensitive instrument, with price action largely driven by the hawkish repricing of Fed interest rates.
As a result, Gold posted its worst quarterly performance in thirteen years, while traders also booked profits following an exceptional two-year rally that pushed prices to a record high near $5,600 in January.
The near-term outlook is still tilted to the downside. The situation in the Middle East remains fragile, keeping the risk of energy-driven inflation at the forefront.
Even if geopolitical tensions ease and lower crude Oil prices help reduce inflation concerns, the Fed is expected to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance as policymakers continue to signal the central bank's commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target.
Gold is therefore unlikely to stage a sustained recovery as expectations for a Fed interest rate hike later this year continue to support the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 58% chance of a rate increase at the September meeting. Attention now turns to next week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due on Tuesday, which could shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path in the coming months.
On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains within a downward channel and is holding below the 50-day, 200-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which collectively cap the upside and reinforce a bearish bias.
Momentum is subdued, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 hovering below the neutral 50 line, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 37 points to a still-firm trend, suggesting that selling pressure remains dominant as Gold struggles to reclaim broken levels.
On the upside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier near $4,200, ahead of the 50-day SMA around $4,352. A stronger resistance zone lies around the 200-day SMA at $4,493, with the upper boundary of the descending channel near the 100-day SMA at $4,593 likely to cap any recovery attempts.
On the downside, the next notable support sits at the horizontal level around $3,950, and a clear break below this floor would open the door to a deeper slide within the prevailing bearish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The USD/CAD crosses below the critical level of 1.4200, heading towards 1.4164 on a three-day consecutive basis due to the declining US dollar The drop in interest rates expectations and a geopolitical surge in the price of crude oil contribute to the Canadian dollar’s gains. The lingering concerns over divergent inflation trends and the delayed renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement pose substantial counterparty risks in the long run For much of the past week, USD/CAD had been stuck around the 1.4200 level, unable to decide on a direction. But that indecision’s now broken to the downside. The pair has spent three straight sessions, including today’s intraday trade, below that mark, dropping from the 1.4210-1.4220 area into the 1.4130s.
Anyone tracking the loonie has to wonder if this marks a true trend change, or just a pause in the dollar’s longer uptrend.
Shifting Central Bank Math and the Energy Boost The USD/CAD pair had been trading in a relatively narrow range near 1.4200, reflecting a period where US dollar and Canadian loonie forces were balanced. Breaking below this mark is a technical move that might signal shifting momentum. Such moves often grab the attention of traders who watch key psychological levels. They can influence price action and where traders place their bets.
On one side, the US dollar has been weakening significantly this week. It kept falling even when US jobless claims came in better than expected, because people were paying more attention to the overall mood rather than just one piece of data.
Meanwhile, in Canada, the swap markets have quietly adjusted, now putting the chances of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates this year at about 60%, up from around 40% just a few days ago. This change is helping the Canadian dollar gain strength. Earlier this summer, market players were strongly expecting the US Federal Reserve to raise rates multiple times, especially with a new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh.
However, pricing for a cumulative Fed rate increase by December has dropped notably. It’s now around 26 basis points, down from the 38 basis points expected just last week. This cooling trend was reinforced by the latest Fed minutes. They showed that while inflation concerns remain, the broader enthusiasm for immediate, consecutive hikes has started to recede.
At the same time, the Canadian dollar, which is closely tied to commodities, is getting a significant boost from the global energy sector. New geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with recent military clashes near important global shipping routes, have driven up international crude oil prices. Since Canada is a major exporter of crude oil, higher energy prices naturally benefit the Canadian dollar.
Navigating the 1.4100 Support Zone With the USD/CAD pair breaking its multi-week trading range, currency allocators and macro investors should rethink their short-term positioning. Chasing this downward breakout with aggressive, large-scale short USD positions at current levels carries notable risks. The pair is quickly nearing its next major technical support zone around 1.4100.
There are also trade policy issues to keep an eye on. The failure to immediately renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) after its July deadline creates long-term structural uncertainty. Any strong protectionist talk or threats of tariffs from Washington would immediately dampen business confidence and slow down the Canadian dollar’s gains.
Why did the USD/CAD pair break below 1.4200?
Shifting momentum from US dollar dynamics, commodity influences, and policy expectations favoured the Canadian dollar recently.
How significant is this technical breakdown?
It signals potential bearish momentum for the pair, though sustainability depends on confirmation from economic data and volume.
How should forex traders reposition?
They should consider favouring CAD strength with defined risk levels, while monitoring resistance for possible reversals.
Gold (XAU/USD) nurses minor losses with price action contained within Thursday’s trading range, around the $4,100 level, set for 1.6% weekly depreciation. Precious metals struggled this week as the resumption of hostilities in Iran boosted Oil prices, pressuring central banks to hike interest rates.
Markets are looking for direction on Friday amid a tense calm, and rumours that mediators are working to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table. Axios cited a US official affirming on Friday that the US is still committed to finding a resolution and that technical talks to reach a nuclear deal continue.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of six peers, has bounced from levels near three-week highs amid a cautious market mood, and is drawing closer to the 101.00 level, which keeps Gold upside attempts limited.
Technical Analysis: Hints of a reversal within the broader bearish trend
XAU/USD trades at $4,110, holding just below the trendline resistance from early March lows, although the higher low seen earlier this week suggests that bears might be losing momentum. Indicators in the daily chart are also showing a weakening bearish momentum, yet with no clear sign of a trend shift on the horizon so far.
The Relative Strength Index (14) has picked up towards neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive with its latest reading at 19.09, hinting at improving momentum.
Price action, however, needs to overcome structural resistance first at the mentioned trendline, now around $4,175, and then at the July 6 just above $4,200 and June 17 highs in the area of $4,380. On the downside, the precious metal has a cluster of supports between Thursday's low in the $4,020 area and the late October 2025 lows near $3,885.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has edged higher to around 1.1450, extending its recovery from this week's lows as the US Dollar softened modestly.
UOB believes the Euro retains a mild upside bias in the near term, although it expects gains to be capped around the 1.1450 level.
The bank notes that upward momentum has improved slightly after EUR/USD rebounded from 1.1390 earlier this week.
According to UOB, "EUR may retest 1.1450", but it cautions that "a continued rise above this level is unlikely."
Looking beyond the next 24 hours, UOB believes the pair has returned to a range-trading phase after failing to generate stronger bullish momentum.
The bank expects EUR/USD to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450 over the coming one to three weeks, adding that even a break above resistance would probably lead to a broader trading range rather than a sustained rally.
UOB continues to monitor the 1.1390-1.1410 support zone closely. The bank maintains that if this area eventually gives way, the next medium-term downside target remains 1.1210.
USD/JPY fell to 161.67 on Friday, with the yen fully recovering its losses from the beginning of the week. Market participants are once again increasing expectations of possible intervention by Japanese authorities, following the national currency’s recent move to nearly 40-year lows.
Investors are also awaiting the release of official intervention data later this month to determine whether the Bank of Japan’s actions were behind the yen’s sharp – though brief – gains in recent weeks.
Fresh macroeconomic data has attracted additional attention. Japan’s producer prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, marking the fastest pace since March 2023. Cost pressures remain elevated due to the Middle East conflict and the significant weakening of the yen.
At the same time, the Japanese currency found support from lower oil prices following reports that the US and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations despite the recent escalation. The decline in oil prices prompted a retreat in both the dollar and US Treasury yields, while also easing concerns about rising import costs for Japan, which remains one of the largest buyers of Middle Eastern oil.
Technical Analysis On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 161.57 level, currently extending up to 162.62. A decline towards 161.30 is expected today, followed by a rebound to 162.62, with scope for the trend to extend to 164.15. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 161.20, with a possible extension to 161.16. A move higher towards 162.62 is expected. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation towards 164.15. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 20 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating increasing short-term upside momentum.
Conclusion The yen has fully recovered its losses from the start of the week, supported by renewed expectations of potential Japanese intervention and lower oil prices following signs of US–Iran peace negotiations. Producer prices in Japan rose at their fastest pace since March 2023, reflecting persistent cost pressures from the Middle East conflict and currency weakness. However, falling oil prices eased concerns over Japan’s energy import costs and contributed to a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields. Technically, USD/JPY may see further downside towards 161.30 in the near term, but the broader uptrend remains intact, with potential for a rebound towards 162.62 and beyond. The market’s focus now turns to official intervention data for confirmation of recent central bank activity.
RoboForex Ltdhttps://www.roboforex.com/
RoboForex Ltd is a reputable financial brokerage company that has been operating since 2009. It provides reliable access to the largest financial markets with competitive conditions.
Oil is back in the driver’s seat, and both the pound and the aussie are feeling its grip. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in June, but with UK inflation at 2.8% and crude oil climbing on renewed Middle East tensions, markets now lean towards a hike before year-end. Down under, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.35% after three straight increases, with core inflation stuck at 3.6%, keeping the door open for further tightening. Two hawkish central banks, one shared inflationary culprit—yet it’s the existing 60-basis-point rate gap in Australia’s favour that is giving GBP/AUD its current shape, with the pair holding firm near the 1.93 handle as traders watch which bank blinks first.
Technical Outlook
GBP/AUD pits two currencies backed by hawkish central banks against each other. After a sharp downtrend, the pair found a floor in May 2026 and has since reversed into a medium-term uptrend as sterling claws back ground against the aussie. Price is now testing a key resistance zone that has previously capped upside attempts, making the coming sessions pivotal.
Bullish Scenario
Several sessions of strong bullish momentum have kept sterling supported. The pair is testing a crucial resistance zone at 1.9350–1.9400, which has rejected price before.
A confirmed break above could open the path towards the next resistance at 1.9520–1.9550.
Such a breakout would likely require fundamental support, such as further escalation in the Middle East or an even more hawkish BoE.
Bearish Scenario
Price could reject the resistance zone once again, reinforcing it as a key barrier.
A bearish RSI divergence on the 4H chart adds weight to this scenario, with price posting higher highs while the RSI prints lower highs—a sign of fading momentum.
The ascending trendline is now the nearest relevant support; a break below could expose the intermediate zone at 1.9080–1.9120, where price may pause and consolidate.
Should tensions ease or fresh UK political developments emerge, sterling could lose ground, breaking below this zone to test the next support at 1.8780–1.8820.
Ultimately, GBP/AUD’s next move will hinge on geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, alongside these key technical levels. Which of the two currencies will show greater strength in the sessions ahead?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOpenhttps://www.fxopen.com/
FXOpen is a global Forex and CFD Broker, founded in 2005 by a group of traders. With over 16 years of experience, the company has gained an excellent reputation a major brokerage that continues to expand rapidly. The broker offers a choice of platforms, including the popular MT4 and MT5 platforms, with a wide range of trading instruments with spreads from 0.0 pips: 600+ FX, index, share, commodity and cryptocurrency CFDs. FXOpen also provides its own PAMM technology, allowing clients to benefit from the strategies of experienced traders with a proven track record of successful trading and guarantees automatic distribution of profit and loss between the strategy provider and the strategy followers. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money. PAMM is only available in certain jurisdictions. Cryptocurrency CFDs are not available to Retail clients at FXOpen UK.
OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight that Gold has rebounded as Oil prices eased, reducing inflation and Fed tightening concerns, while a softer US Dollar also supported the move. However, ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, suggesting the recovery is more relief-driven than a decisive return of investor demand. Near term, Gold could trade with a better tone if Oil and yields stay contained.
Relief-driven recovery in Gold"Gold. Tentative stabilisation on oil relief. Gold rebounded as oil prices eased from their recent spike, taking some pressure off inflation expectations, yields and Fed tightening concerns. A softer USD also helped the recovery, after the recent selloff across the precious metals complex."
"But ETF flows have yet to confirm a broader investor rebuild. Bloomberg data show total known gold ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, even though holdings have stabilised slightly in recent days. This suggests the move is still mainly about relief from oil and yield pressures, rather than a decisive return of investor demand."
"That said, the structural support remains intact. Central banks continue to add to gold reserves, with Poland standing out as a notable buyer this year. Governor Glapinski said that Poland has bought 82t of gold this year and now holds 632.4t."
"The target is to accumulate 700t of gold. Near term, gold can trade with a better tone if oil stays contained and yields remain capped, but stronger follow-through likely requires softer US data or a further easing in Fed tightening concerns. Gold last seen at 4125 levels."
"Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Risks skewed to the upside for now. Resistance at 4140 (21 DMA), 4200 levels. Support at 4021 (week’s low), 3943 (year’s low)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
