Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers after failing to find acceptance above the $4,100 mark the previous day, though it holds above the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Despite soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, investors remain worried about energy-driven inflation as escalating US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain supportive of elevated crude oil prices. Furthermore, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the price stability commitment in his first congressional testimony, leaving the door open for at least one rate hike by year's end. This, to a large extent, offsets modest US Dollar (USD) weakness and turns out to be a key factor exerting some pressure on the non-yielding bullion.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.4% in June, representing the largest one-month decrease since April 2020 and missing expectations of a 0.1% fall. Furthermore, the core gauge, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was flat in June, compared to 0.3% consensus estimate. On a yearly basis, the headline and the core CPI decelerated to 3.5% and 2.6%, respectively, also missing forecasts. The data prompted traders to trim expectations of Fed rate hikes and dragged the USD to a nearly four-week low. The initial market reaction, however, faded quickly after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress that the central bank had no tolerance for persistently high inflation, while also touting the strength of the US economy.

Moreover, the recent rise in crude oil prices to a nearly one-month high poses a direct inflation risk, backing the case for further tightening by the Fed. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs, either in September or December. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the safe-haven buck. The US military launched another round of airstrikes against Iran, while Iran retaliated with attacks on US military assets in Gulf countries. Moreover, US President Donald Trump warned that the US would strike Iranian bridges and power plants unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside. Traders now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which, along with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's second day of congressional testimony, should influence the USD. Apart from this, the market focus will be on further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, which might continue to infuse volatility in financial markets and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the precious metal.

XAU/USD daily chart

Gold remains vulnerable below 200-day SMA as descending channel remains in playThe XAU/USD pair holds within a downward parallel channel and well beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps the broader tone capped despite the recent bounce. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive and is edging higher, hinting at improving but still constrained upside momentum as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingers around a neutral 40.80 level.

Hence, the top boundary of the channel near $4,140.69 might continue to act as the first meaningful barrier within the current structure. A sustained strength beyond the said hurdle is needed to ease the prevailing bearish bias. On the downside, the lower end of the descending channel around $3,718.03 offers the next key support, where a stronger reaction would be needed to suggest that sellers are losing control of the near-term trend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Interest rates FAQs Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

The Brent oil has shown positive momentum around the $87, while the WTI oil remains strong at $80. US strikes against Iran have reignited worries over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If oil prices remain above $80, it would boost transport and production costs. This may force the Fed to keep the interest rates higher for longer and cap the potential gains of gold and silver.

The short term momentum for gold and silver may remain uncertain due to the uncertainty from the Middle East crisis. A further escalation may boost the oil prices and inflation which may keep the precious metals under pressure.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,200 Resistance Caps CPI Rebound Spot gold prices rebounded higher after the inflation data, but the rebound was limited below $4,200. The price again continued lower and remains under bearish pressure. As long as the gold price remains below the $4,200 area in the short term, the likelihood of downside pressure will remain. The RSI has also reached the mid-level and indicates that prices may continue to consolidate at lower levels before the next move.

Key Highlights

GBP/USD started a fresh increase above 1.3300 and 1.3350. A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.3370 on the 4-hour chart. Gold struggled near $4,120 and corrected some gains. WTI Crude Oil prices gained pace for a move above $80.00. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound remained in a positive zone above 1.3320 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD corrected some gains from 1.3450, but the bulls protected losses.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3140 swing low to the 1.3451 high. Besides, the pair remained stable above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

The pair is again rising above 1.3400. On the upside, the bears might remain active near 1.3435 and 1.3450. The next major resistance might be 1.3500.

A close above 1.3500 could start a steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3620. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find support near 1.3370. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3370.

The first major support could be near 1.3300 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.3300 might send the pair toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3260. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.3200.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair recovered some losses, but the bears are still active near the 1.1475 resistance zone.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

US Producer Price Index for June 2026 (MoM) – Forecast 0%, versus +1.1% previous. US Producer Price Index for June 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +6.2%, versus +6.5% previous. Fed’s Cook speech. Fed’s Beige Book.

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On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7910 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7990 and 6.7695 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to around $4,050 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rebounds as softer-than-expected US inflation data boosted hopes of the US  Federal ‌Reserve (Fed) adopting a less hawkish stance.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.5% YoY in June from the three-year high it set at 4.2% in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI declined by 0.4% in June, versus a rise of 0.5% in May. 

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged on a monthly basis, and it was up 2.6% on a yearly basis, compared to the 2.9% increase seen in May and the market expectation of 2.8%. After the softer inflation data, traders exited bets that the Fed would hike rates at its July 28-29 meeting, supporting the yellow metal. 

"Gold gallops higher on a surprisingly subdued CPI report that saw headline dive lower but more importantly, core unchanged versus 0.2%. This should drop rate hike expectations sharply at least for the July and September meetings," said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

Nonetheless, oil-driven inflation concerns could prompt the US central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold. US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces said it has “begun launching an additional round of strikes against Iran to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.” 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, stated that the US military’s attack on a ranger post in Hormozgan is “the latest example of America’s heinous war crimes."

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The US dollar retreated after softer-than-expected US inflation data sparked a risk-on move across financial markets, helping gold rebound from the key 4,000 support level. However, mixed futures positioning, rising short interest and a fragile technical backdrop suggest the precious metal's recovery may still face headwinds if the US dollar resumes its broader uptrend.

View related analysis:

Japanese Yen Short Covering Raises the Stakes for USD/JPY Yen Bears Capitulate, US Dollar Nearing Sentiment Extreme? | COT report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bounce Losing Steam Ahead of US CPI Nasdaq 100 Bulls Seek Swing Low, Though COT Positioning Lacks Conviction US Dollar Weakens, but Gold Faces More Tests Ahead Softer US inflation sparks risk-on rebound Markets were handed a dose of risk appetite following a softer-than-expected US inflation report. All key metrics came in below estimates, with headline CPI falling 0.4% m/m (vs 0.1% forecast) and core CPI flat at 0.0% m/m (vs 0.2% expected). Annual inflation also eased, with headline CPI slowing to 3.5% y/y and core inflation to 2.6%.

US dollar weakens as traders reassess Fed outlook Separately, President Trump scrapped his proposed 20% toll on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although the waterway remains closed by Iran for now. Together, these developments sent the US dollar sharply lower, making it the weakest major currency. NZD/USD and AUD/USD outperformed as they tracked Wall Street indices higher.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also pledged to "do his job" on monetary policy despite pressure from President Trump during testimony before the House on Tuesday. That leaves incoming US economic data and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the primary drivers for the US dollar and, by extension, global markets in the near term.

Source: LSEG

US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook: Pullback Risk Grows Within Uptrend I outlined a potential sentiment extreme for the US dollar in my weekly COT report, noting that futures traders were effectively short USD by nearly $40 billion—a 10-year high. While this weekly data does not necessarily mean a pullback is imminent, it is something to keep in mind as the rally matures. There are also other data points besides inflation to monitor, and while the soft CPI figures were welcome, they may not have been entirely unexpected given the recent decline in crude oil prices.

The daily chart shows a bearish engulfing candle (an outside day) on the US Dollar Index. Yet support emerged around the monthly pivot point before prices closed back above the 20-day EMA. Note that the 50-day EMA sits just below, which I suspect could provide decent support should prices pull back. And while the US Dollar Index remains in an uptrend, a move towards 102 could still be on the cards before a larger pullback materialises.

Source: ICE, TradingView

Gold Futures (GC) Market Positioning | COT Report Net-long exposure has been rising in recent weeks in gold futures, although it no longer appears as bullish as it did two weeks ago. Large speculators increased net longs to a 23-week high of 194.5k contracts last week, primarily driven by an increase in long positions. Yet short positions are also picking up, reminding us that bears still lurk beneath the surface. That could keep a lid on gains without a fresh bullish catalyst specific to gold.

While gross shorts rose to a six-week high of 39.5k contracts, large speculators added 33k long contracts over the past six weeks, compared with an increase of 9.4k short contracts over the past five weeks. So it's not an all-out slam dunk for the bulls – who may want to tread with caution despite Tuesday’s post-CPI bounce.

Source: COMEX, CFTC (COT), LSEG

For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis I have twice called for a bounce from 4,000, and it looks as though gold is trying to rebound from this key level once again. A bullish piercing line pattern had formed by Tuesday's close after only a marginal intraday break below 4,000. Daily trading volume was above average and slightly higher than Monday's bearish session, suggesting bulls are still willing to defend support despite a weak US session.

Yet that last point is key. If I am correct in assuming that traders will continue buying dips in the US dollar index, with a move towards 102 before a more meaningful retracement unfolds, then upside potential for gold could remain capped. In that scenario, another break below 4,000 becomes increasingly likely.

The daily chart remains in a clear downtrend, even if prices are attempting to carve out a double bottom. Note that the monthly pivot point sits just below 4,200, making it a potential level for bears to fade into in anticipation of another break beneath 4,000. If bears regain control, the October low near 3,900 comes into focus. A break below there would expose the monthly S1 pivot around 3,800, followed by the September VPOC at 3,680.

I do not have strong conviction in those lower support levels just yet, but gold's lacklustre attempt to rally from 4,000 leaves me on guard for another test of 3,900.

Source: COMEX, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

EUR/USD trades higher near 1.1420 on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data. The Euro’s recovery remains mainly driven by broad Greenback selling rather than Eurozone developments.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.4% MoM in June, compared with expectations for a 0.1% decrease and May’s 0.5% increase. Annual inflation slowed sharply to 3.5% from 4.2%, below the 3.8% market forecast. Core CPI remained unchanged on the month, while the annual underlying rate eased to 2.6% from 2.9%.

US employment indicators also softened, with the ADP Employment Change four-week average declining to 19.75K from 21K. The figures reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate increase in July, placing additional pressure on the US Dollar.

However, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintained a relatively hawkish tone during his congressional testimony, reiterating the central bank’s commitment to controlling persistent inflation. Warsh also described the US labor market as broadly stable, highlighting low unemployment, limited layoffs and solid nominal wage growth.

Geopolitical developments remain in focus after US President Donald Trump said the United States would impose a full blockade, but only on vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports. Trump also abandoned the proposed 20% US reimbursement fee for cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with trade and investment agreements involving Gulf states.

Short-term technical analysis:In the four-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1423, holding a mildly bullish bias as it sits above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1418 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1408. The clustering of these averages just beneath spot suggests underlying demand on shallow dips, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52.7 leans slightly positive without yet signaling overbought conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier at 1.1434, followed by a stronger cap at 1.1446. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period SMA at 1.1418, ahead of the nearby horizontal floor at 1.1416. A deeper pullback would expose the 100-period SMA at 1.1408 and the lower horizontal level at 1.1404 as the next key demand areas.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The USD/CHF tumbles by 0.70% on Tuesday, trading at 0.8093, as the latest US inflation report prompted market participants to pare hawkish bets that the Federal Reserve might cut the Fed funds rate this year. 

Price action indicates the uptrend remains intact. The market structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact despite the USD/CHF dip below the 0.8100 mark following the release of macroeconomic data.

Momentum favours further upside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish above its 50-neutral level.

That said, if USD/CHF registers a daily close above 0.8100, a potential move towards the high of the day (HOD) at 0.8152 is on the cards. If its cleared, the August 1, 2025, daily high at 0.8171 is up next, before traders challenge the 0.8200 mark. Above lies the psychological 0.8250 and 0.8300.

The first support is the low of the day (LOD) at 0.8060. A breach of the latter will expose the July 10 swing low of 0.8030. On further weakness, the next support is the July 2 daily low of 0.8010.

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Gold price surges by some 1.50% on Tuesday as US consumer inflation data came in below estimates, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to further tighten ahead of 2026. The XAU/USD trades at $4,050 after bouncing off daily lows of $3,983.

XAU/USD rebounds as softer CPI weakens Dollar and yieldsThe yellow metal is trimming some of its Monday losses, supported by the drop in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). June’s CPI missed estimates, dipping from 4.2% to 3.5% YoY, beneath estimates for a slowdown of 3.8%, an indication that aggressive rate hikes by the Fed are not needed. Underlying inflation did not approach the Fed’s 2% goal but eased from 2.9% to 2.6%, also below forecasts of 2.8%.

Investors promptly reduced Fed hawkish bets. On Monday, money markets expected over 35 basis points (bps) of tightening towards year-end, but as of writing, stand at just 18 bps, implying a 72% chance of a rate hike in 2026, according to Prime Terminal data.

Source: Prime TerminalIn the short term, the conclusion is that US inflation is edging lower. However, the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East has pushed Oil prices higher, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, up 1% in the day and 10.27% in July. This means that June’s inflation dip — worth noting that it's the lowest monthly reading since 2020—could be short-lived due to the jump in energy prices.

Fed officials encouraged by data; yet job is not doneFed Chair, Kevin Warsh, testified before the US Congress. In prepared remarks, he emphasized that the US central bank has no tolerance for “persistently elevated inflation,” reaffirmed that the Fed is committed to achieving the 2% goal. Regarding June’s CPI, he said it doesn’t mean the mission was accomplished and that he doesn’t want to overread to just one month of data.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value against six currencies, is down 0.35% at 100.92, a tailwind for Gold. A weaker US Dollar benefits Bullion, making it cheaper for foreign investors.

The yellow metal benefits from lower US Treasury yields, and the US 10-year T-note yield did descend lower, nearly four-and-a-half bps to 4.581%.

Other Fed officials crossed the wires. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee commented that June’s CPI “was surprisingly benign” but added that he never wants to overreact to one month of data. Goolsbee added that after several months of readings like this, the Fed would be in a better place regarding monetary policy.

Meanwhile, geopolitics continued to grab the headlines as the US and Iran exchanged fire, with the latter launching attacks on a US air base in Jordan. Meanwhile, Washington continued to attack military targets aimed at dismantling Iran’s military infrastructure, aimed to disrupt safe sailing through the Straight of Hormuz.

Prolonged hostilities could increase the likelihood of a prolonged period of keeping interest rates higher for longer, which could dent the appetite for the non-yielding metal.

This week, the US economic calendar includes the June PPI, expected to fall from 6.5% to 6.2%, and the core PPI, anticipated to rise from 4.9% to 5.2%. Traders will also watch Fed speeches by Chair Warsh, Governor Cook, and NY Fed President Williams.

XAU/USD price forecast: Gold remains bearish despite testing $4,100Gold’s overall trend remains downward despite trimming some of its Monday losses near 3% due to the inflation data. However, the rally has been contained, with XAU/USD retreating toward the $4,050 area after peaking at$4,109.

Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests further downside, but in the short term, buyers are moving in, keeping Gold prices above the $4,000 threshold.

For a bullish resumption, Gold must clear the day's high at $4,109, so buyers could potentially test $4,150. On further strength, the next resistance level would be a downslope resistance trendline at around $4,160, followed by the psychological $4,200 mark.

Downwards, the first support is at $4,000. Below lies the year-to-date (YTD) low of $3,941. A breach of the latter will expose the October 28, 2025 swing low at $3,886, ahead of a drop toward $3,500.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Key Points:Gold climbed above the $4050 level as traders focused on U.S. CPI report. Silver made an attempt to settle above the $60.00 level as traders reduced bets on dovish Fed. Platinum continued its attempts to settle above the resistance at $1600 - $1620.

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Gold Gains Ground As U.S. Inflation Rate Drops To 3.5%

Gold 140726 Daily Chart Gold rebounds as traders focus on inflation data from the U.S. Inflation Rate declined by -0.4% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of -0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, Inflation Rate decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, compared to analyst consensus of 3.8%. Core Inflatoin Rate pulled back from 2.9% to 2.6%, below the analyst estimate of 2.8%.

Treasury yields moved lower as bond traders focused on CPI data. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved towards the 4.21% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.58%. Falling Treasury yields provided material support to gold that pays no interest.

U.S. dollar moved lower against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders reduced bets on dovish Fed. Weaker dollar is bullish for gold and other dollar-denominated commodities.

It should be noted that comments from Fed Chair Warsh put some pressure on gold markets. Warsh said that today’s CPI report did not mean that Fed’s mission was accomplished.

Currently, gold is trying to stay above the support level at $4020 – $4040. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the $4100 level. A move above $4100 will push gold towards the resistance level at $4180 – $4200.

Silver Rebounds As Dollar Pulls Back Silver 140726 Daily Chart Silver rebounds, supported by U.S. inflation data. Gold/silver ratio pulled back towards the 69.00 level, providing additional support to silver markets.

In case silver manages to settle above the $60.00 level, it will head towards the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the support side, a move below the support at $56.00 – $57.00 will open the way to the test of the next support at $51.00 – $52.00.

Platinum Tests Resistance At $1600 – $1620

Platinum 140726 Daily Chart Platinum is moving higher amid broad rally in precious metals markets, which was triggered by the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation report. Palladium markets are up by as much as 4.5%, which is bullish for platinum.

Interestingly, traders ignore risks posed by rising oil prices. High oil prices may create material inflationary pressure and force the Fed to be more hawkish. Perhaps, some traders believe that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will calm down. However, it looks that U.S. and Iran are not ready to continue negotiations in the near term. WTI oil climbed above the $79.00 level today, while Brent oil settled above $84.00.

Platinum attempts to settle above the resistance level at $1600 – $1620. This resistance level has already been tested many times and proved its strength. In case platinum settles above $1620, it will head towards the resistance level at $1680 – $1700. A move above the $1700 level will push platinum towards the 50 MA at $1793.

On the support side, platinum needs to pull back below the $1600 level to have a chance to gain additional downside momentum in the near term. In this case, platinum will head towards the support at $1500 – $1520.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

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Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Tuesday as softer-than-expected US inflation data tempers expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike and pushes the US Dollar (USD) lower. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $58.50, up nearly 2% on the day.

Following the data, the probability of a July hike fell to 12% from 40%, while the odds of a September increase eased to 59% from 74%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Hovever, Silver lacks stronger upside momentum. Oil-driven inflation risks are back in focus amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, leaving the door open to a Fed rate hike later this year.

Meanwhile, the technical outlook remains bearish as XAG/USD trades well below its key moving averages, even though momentum indicators are showing early signs that selling pressure is easing.

Technical analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD keeps a bearish tone as price holds firmly below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The pair remains inside a downward parallel channel, trading just under the upper boundary at $60, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 stays in mildly bearish territory.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, with the line marginally above zero at 0.32, hints at some loss of downside momentum but does not yet challenge the prevailing downside bias given the heavy overhead structure.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the channel’s upper boundary around $60, followed by the horizontal barrier at $62.50, ahead of a denser cap formed by the 50-day SMA at $69.35 and the 200-day SMA at $70.42, with the 100-day SMA higher up at $73.56 reinforcing the broader bearish backdrop.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at $55.50, with the lower edge of the descending channel near $48.50 acting as a more distant structural floor should selling pressure accelerate.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Key Points:Metals and mining stocks are bottoming within our ideal target zones, helped by Tuesday's lower-than-expected CPI report.Some cycle lows develop quickly, producing sharp V-shaped recoveries. More often, however, the bottoming process unfolds over several weeks before a durable low is confirmed.The bigger picture remains firmly constructive. We view the recent weakness in precious metals as just a pause within a multi-year bull market that we expect to continue into 2030–2031.At a minimum, we believe gold has the potential to exceed $10,000, while silver could surpass $300. If that long-term outlook proves correct, mining stocks could deliver exceptional returns in the years ahead.

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The Gold Cycle Indicator is currently at 38. Note: On June 25th the GCI reached 17 and we alerted members in our morning brief. You can see the summary in the video.

The Gold Cycle Indicator sits at 38, still in the lower half of its range. Source: GoldPredict.com Gold  Gold appears to be bottoming within our target zone, with the precise low likely arriving at $3,941 on June 30. The lower-than-expected June CPI reading (-0.4%) supports this view.

The next milestone is a decisive close above the $4,203 pivot. From there, successive closes above the cycle downtrend line would further confirm a major bottom.

While this advance may begin gradually, our medium-term outlook remains highly constructive as we expect gold to exceed $7,000 next year.

Gold’s low at $3,941 sits inside the target zone, with $4,203 and the cycle downtrend line as the levels to clear. Source: GoldPredict.com Silver Silver prices are carving out an important cycle bottom within our prescribed target window. After declining more than 50% from the January peak, we believe this represents a critical low that is likely to hold for the remainder of the bull market. Our longer-term outlook remains highly bullish, with silver prices expected to exceed $300 by the end of the decade.

Silver is basing within the target zone following its slide from the January high. Source: GoldPredict.com Platinum Platinum filled the price gap at $1,587, briefly dipping below the lower boundary of our target zone. We continue to believe there is a strong possibility that platinum will return to parity with gold, and as a result, could outperform gold to the upside into 2031.

Platinum filled the $1,587 gap and briefly undercut the target zone before recovering. Source: GoldPredict.com GDX Mining stocks tagged the lower boundary of our target zone before reversing higher. Progressive closes above $76.00 this week would support the formation of an important bottom at $71.89, a level we expect to hold for the remainder of the bull market. Final confirmation of a bottom will come with decisive closes back above $80.00, signaling that the next leg of the advance is underway.

GDX reversed off $71.89 at the base of the target zone; $76.00 and $80.00 are the levels above. Source: GoldPredict.com GDXJ Junior miners did not quite reach the lower boundary of our target zone, suggesting underlying strength. Progressive closes above $100.00 this week would support a bottom forming at $93.23. Final confirmation of the low will come with a decisive close above $107.50, signaling that the next phase of the bull market is underway.

GDXJ’s $93.23 low held above the bottom of the target zone, with $100.00 and $107.50 as the levels above. Source: GoldPredict.com SILJ Silver juniors are trying to form a bottom in the middle of our target box at $23.73. A strong finish above $26.00 would support this view, with final confirmation of a bottom arriving with progressive closes above $28.00.

SILJ is holding at $23.73 mid-box, with $26.00 and $28.00 as the levels above. Source: GoldPredict.com Closing Thoughts We believe metals and miners are forming critical lows that could hold for the remainder of the bull market.

Our longer-term outlook sees gold reaching $10,000 to $15,000 and silver achieving $300 to $500 over the next five years, with a particular focus on 2031.

Our broader economic framework anticipates a major economic downturn (depression) starting around 2030 and extending into 2036. The current inflationary environment will transition into stagflation or outright deflation after 2032. Investors should begin preparing now for the opportunities that may emerge in the years ahead.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.

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As the trading week begins, the euro is once again showing a short-term bullish bias after the release of inflation data in the United States, which has helped ease strength around the U.S. dollar.

For now, EUR/USD is up more than 0.6% during the session and continues to trade above the 1.1400 level. This buying pressure is partly due to the fact that the new inflation data has triggered corrections in the U.S. bond market, a dynamic that does not favor the dollar.

If this behavior continues, relevant buying pressure could remain present in EUR/USD movements over the next few trading sessions.

U.S. CPI day arrives During the session, CPI data in the United States was released. Although an annual reading was expected, the official figure surprised to the downside and came in at 3.5%.

This figure marks an important change in the U.S. price dynamic, as it represents one of the most relevant declines of the year. In addition, June inflation moved away from the annual high of 4.2% and broke the upward trend that had been present in annual inflation levels since March.

With this result, inflation is once again moving somewhat closer to the central bank’s annual 2.00% target.

Source: TradingEconomics

This event is relevant for Federal Reserve expectations, as a consistent slowdown in inflation could prevent the view of a fully aggressive central bank from materializing over the coming months.

As inflation declines, the need to keep interest rates higher for a prolonged period also decreases. This perspective has started to be reflected in the 10-year U.S. bond market, where yields have shown some correction amid lower expectations of central bank aggressiveness.

After the upward trend seen last week, yields have started to move back below the 4.6% area, showing relevant weakness that had not been observed in recent sessions.

Source: TradingEconomics

The key point is that, as bond yields show weakness, the relative appeal of these fixed-income instruments compared to other markets may also decline. This could reduce the need to maintain consistent demand for dollars in order to access these types of assets.

This decline in bond yields coincides with weaker demand for U.S. dollars. This behavior is reflected in the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers. The index is now showing a relevant decline and is approaching the 100-point reference area. This indicates that demand for dollars has started to weaken in the short term.

Source: TradingEconomics

With all of this in mind, the dynamic has been favorable for the euro. The release of the inflation data created renewed weakness in dollar demand, which could be allowing the euro to recover ground in the short term.

If the U.S. bond market fails to show attractive growth in yields, the dollar could continue to lose ground. In that scenario, EUR/USD could maintain relevant buying pressure over the next few trading sessions.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Recent recovery becomes relevant: Although a long bearish trend line has been present for months in average EUR/USD movements, the recent price recovery has started to weaken the long-term selling bias. This move could be opening room for a more neutral phase on the chart. Even though the bearish trend line has not yet been broken, price could start to stop forming new lows and enter a more consistent range. If this effect continues over the next few sessions and selling pressure fails to stabilize again, the continuation of the bearish trend line on the daily chart could start to come under pressure.
  RSI: Now, the RSI has moved back toward the neutral 50 area. This suggests a balance between buying and selling impulses in the market. Rather than pointing to a clear directional move, the indicator highlights a possible phase of indecision that could remain relevant over the next few sessions.
  MACD: A similar dynamic can be seen in the MACD, whose histogram remains very close to the neutral 0 level. This suggests balance in the average strength of short-term moving averages. This reading may also reflect relevant neutrality in short-term price movements.
  Key levels:

1.15127 – Relevant resistance: This important high level coincides with a retracement area from previous weeks and also with the barrier formed by the 50-period moving average. Price movements attempting to break above this level could start to put the long bearish trend line at risk and open room for a more dominant buying bias over the coming weeks.
  1.14253 – Near-term barrier: This level corresponds to the most relevant neutral area now. Price movements too close to this level could continue to highlight significant indecision and even open room for a possible short-term sideways range over the next few sessions.
  1.12851 – Definitive support: This level is associated with a neutral area observed in May 2025 and now acts as the main support to watch. If price continues to move closer to this area, the selling bias would be reinforced and the possibility of an extension of the bearish trend line as the dominant chart structure over the coming weeks would increase.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

Gold has jumped off the $4,000 level on the daily chart, though a death cross has now formed above. Source: TradingView. The gold market jumped on Tuesday after the consumer price index numbers in the United States came in weaker than anticipated. The core CPI numbers came in at 0.0%, which was 0.2% less than anticipated, and with that, it makes a certain amount of sense that it caught the market off guard. By catching the market off guard, you have a scenario where the reaction is pretty quick, and it is also fortuitous that the market was at a large, round, psychologically significant figure in the form of $4,000, thereby adding to the drama. Market participants do tend to pay close attention to these big figures, and $4,000 has been massive support as of late.

Technical Signals and Geopolitical Headwinds Looking at the chart, it is worth noting that we’ve recently seen the 50-day EMA break down below the 200-day EMA, which is what technical analysis calls a death cross. That death cross captures a lot of attention, and it is very negative in its meaning. Whether or not that actually ends up being an ominous sign remains to be seen, but we also have to worry about interest rates spiking again based on headlines coming out of the Middle East. That has been a major driver recently.

In the latest bank forecasts, the Indian rupee could recover against the US dollar over the coming months as foreign bond inflows return and domestic liquidity conditions improve, according to HSBC. The bank recommends selling the USD/INR exchange rate, arguing that recent policy measures should encourage overseas investment into India while the Reserve Bank of India is likely to resist a renewed rise towards recent highs.

USD/INR was trading around 96.32 on Tuesday, having gained 1.75% during July and more than 7% since the beginning of the year.

The exchange rate recently reached a 2026 high around 97.12, placing the rupee close to levels that HSBC believes could trigger a more defensive response from policymakers.

Why Foreign Bond Inflows Could Support the Rupee HSBC says tax incentives for overseas bond investors included in the government's June foreign exchange package have already helped attract capital back into India.

Further inflows could follow if Bloomberg announces the inclusion of Indian debt in one of its bond indices.

Index inclusion would encourage international funds tracking the benchmark to increase their exposure to Indian government debt, generating additional demand for the rupee.

HSBC also notes that foreign investors have recently shifted from heavy equity selling to modest inflows, suggesting sentiment towards Indian assets may be stabilising.

How the FCNR Deposit Scheme Could Help Another potential source of support is the Foreign Currency Non-Resident deposit scheme.

HSBC says the initiative is beginning to gain traction as deposits are mobilised and exchanged with the Reserve Bank of India.

As more of these funds enter the domestic financial system, the resulting increase in rupee liquidity should have positive spillover effects for local sentiment, economic activity and Indian asset markets.

Combined with stronger foreign investment flows, this could help reverse some of the pressure that has driven USD/INR sharply higher during 2026.

Why the RBI May Defend the Rupee HSBC does not expect the Reserve Bank of India to sell substantial amounts of US dollars from its foreign exchange swap book.

Nevertheless, the bank believes officials are likely to remain defensive and prevent USD/INR from rising materially beyond current levels.

Allowing the pair to return towards 96-97 during the implementation of the government's currency package would raise questions over the effectiveness and cost of the measures.

This suggests the RBI may lean against further rupee weakness, particularly if USD/INR approaches its year-to-date high around 97.12.

What Could Push USD/INR Higher? HSBC acknowledges that the rupee still faces several risks.

India's dependence on imported energy means another rise in oil prices could increase demand for US dollars and widen the country's import bill.

Seasonal dividend outflows, renewed foreign selling of Indian equities and approaching non-deliverable forward maturities could also produce periods of rupee weakness.

The exchange rate has already risen from below 94.80 at the end of June to above 96.30, demonstrating that these risks remain significant.

What's the Forecast for the US Dollar versus the Indian Rupee? HSBC favours a lower USD/INR exchange rate and recommends selling the pair.

The bank expects returning foreign bond inflows, the FCNR deposit programme and resistance from the Reserve Bank of India to limit further gains in USD/INR.

While the pair may remain volatile around current levels, HSBC believes the balance of risks favours a stronger rupee rather than a sustained move beyond the recent 96-97 region.

USD/INR Forecast FAQIs HSBC bullish on the Indian rupee?

Yes. HSBC recommends selling USD/INR, which implies that it expects the rupee to strengthen against the US dollar.

What is the current USD/INR exchange rate?

USD/INR was trading around 96.32 on July 14. The pair was up approximately 1.75% for the month and 7.06% since the beginning of 2026.

Why does HSBC expect USD/INR to fall?

HSBC points to returning foreign bond investment, improving domestic liquidity and the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of India will resist a further rise in the exchange rate.

Could USD/INR rise above 97?

It remains possible if oil prices increase or foreign capital leaves Indian markets. However, HSBC expects the RBI to become increasingly defensive around the 96-97 region.

What are the main risks to the Indian rupee?

Higher oil prices, renewed equity outflows, seasonal dividend payments and non-deliverable forward maturities could all place fresh pressure on the Indian currency.

ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that the EUR/USD short-term rate differential is currently supporting the Euro as Gulf tensions rise, helped by a recovery in EUR front-end rates. However, he doubts this can last if Oil and Gas prices keep climbing, given limited scope for more ECB hikes and worsening eurozone terms of trade. ING warns that EUR/USD could risk a move toward 1.10 under higher energy prices.

Euro buoyed by rates for now"The EUR:USD short-term rate differential is – for now – helping to keep EUR/USD afloat in this Gulf re-escalation. The two-year swap rate gap has re-tightened around 15bp since the start of July, primarily because the rebound in oil prices happened at a time when ECB hike bets were dwindling, leaving more upside room to recover for EUR front-end rates."

"We aren’t convinced this rate gap can offer sustainable support to EUR/USD if energy prices continue to rise though."

"Markets may find it harder to price in more than two ECB hikes by year-end (now, 46bp) considering the less hawkish stance by ECB officials of late, and the medium-term negative implications of an energy crisis – combined with Fed tightening – for the EUR, tend to outweigh the positive of EUR hikes."

"The spike in gas prices is particularly concerning, as it weighs on the eurozone’s terms of trade more than oil."

"In a scenario where Brent returns to $90-100/bl and TTF around €55-60/MWh, a move to 1.10 becomes a tangible risk in EUR/USD."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades in a narrow range on Tuesday, with bulls defending the $4,000 psychological mark as traders await the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due at 12:30 GMT, and closely monitor the fragile situation in the Middle East.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,020, up nearly 0.45% on the day after touching a two-week low of $3,983 earlier in the Asian session.

Headline CPI is expected to ease to 3.8% YoY from 4.2% in May, while the monthly reading is forecast to decline 0.1% after rising 0.5%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, broadly matching May’s readings.

“If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 40% chance of a rate hike at the July meeting, up from 26% a week ago, while the probability of a September hike has risen to 74%.

Later in the American session, traders will turn their attention to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony. Speeches from Fed officials Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee and Lisa Cook will also be closely watched.

Renewed tensions between the US and Iran have pushed crude Oil prices to a one-month high. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $80.00, up around 12% so far this week.

The US carried out strikes against Iran for a third consecutive night on Monday. US President Donald Trump also said he was reinstating a naval blockade on Iran, which will take effect at 20:00 GMT on Tuesday. Trump added that other countries could continue using the Strait of Hormuz but would face a 20% security fee.

Iran's top joint military command said the US had no role in determining the future of Hormuz and would not be allowed to intervene in the strait.

The latest escalation has shifted attention back to the inflationary impact of rising Oil prices. With markets expecting the Fed to raise interest rates later this year, Gold’s near-term bias remains bearish.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD attempts to stabilize within a bearish setup

On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias, trading below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

Gold is attempting to stabilize above the $4,000 psychological mark, but momentum remains weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 39, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains modestly positive, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing but does not yet indicate a clear bullish reversal.

On the upside, initial resistance is at $4,200, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,331. The 200-day SMA at $4,495 and the 100-day SMA at $4,570 represent stronger barriers and reinforce the broader bearish structure.

Immediate support is located at the round $4,000 mark. A sustained break below this level could trigger renewed selling pressure, while Gold would need to reclaim $4,200 to ease the current bearish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have once again pushed crude oil prices higher, providing further support for the US dollar. The greenback has performed particularly well against lower-yielding currencies, such as the Swiss franc, as investors seek both safety and higher returns while reassessing the inflation outlook. Although the euro has held up better than some of its peers, thanks to expectations that the European Central Bank may have to tighten its policy further, the balance of risks remain for the downside. If oil prices continue climbing, energy costs are likely to become a more powerful driver of FX markets than interest rate differentials, leaving the EUR/USD forecast increasingly bearish.

Oil-driven inflation fears revive the dollar Following that weak US jobs report, the dollar lost some momentum but it had now regained it as markets begin to price in the growing risk that renewed disruptions in the Gulf could tighten global energy supplies. Brent crude has climbed to around $87 a barrel, but current pricing still suggests investors are not fully convinced a major supply shock is imminent.

That leaves scope for both oil and the dollar to extend their gains should tensions escalate further. If you recall, oil prices reached north of $110 at the height of the crisis a few months ago, and spent majority of that time around the $100 level.

But unlike earlier in the year, the Fed is now not offering any forward guidance following its hawkish shift in June. That has encouraged markets to speculate more freely about additional policy tightening, with traders now assigning a meaningful probability to a rate increase before the end of the summer.

Warch or CPI unlikely to cause fireworks Attention now turns to Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress, although he is expected to maintain his preference for avoiding strong policy signals. Several other Fed officials are also due to speak, while the latest US inflation figures could reinforce expectations that policymakers may have to tighten policy. Even if headline inflation eases because of earlier declines in energy prices, sticky core inflation is unlikely to provide much reassurance. What’s more, the latest upsurge in oil prices will shift inflation expectations higher for the coming months.

So, markets may not pay too much attention to a small miss in CPI, if we get one. Anyway, the headline figure is expected to print 3.8% year-on-year for June, down from 4.2% in May. Core CPI is seen easing modestly to 2.8% from 2.9%.

Euro supported by yields, but energy remains a headwind The euro has avoided sharper losses largely because eurozone bond yields have risen alongside US Treasury yields, preventing a significant widening in transatlantic rate differentials.

Markets continue to expect further ECB tightening this year, although policymakers have adopted a more cautious tone recently. That leaves limited room for expectations to become significantly more hawkish from here.

Meanwhile, the outlook for Europe is becoming increasingly complicated by higher energy prices. Rising natural gas costs pose a much greater challenge for the eurozone economy than for the United States. Should Brent crude climb towards the $100 area, the negative impact on Europe’s economy could easily outweigh any support generated by higher ECB rates, increasing the likelihood of a deeper EUR/USD decline.

Technical EUR/USD forecast: Bearish pattern points to further weakness The technical picture also continues to favour the bears. The EUR/USD remains confined within a bearish flag formation following its recent correction. A decisive break beneath the lower boundary of that pattern would strengthen the case for another leg lower, initially exposing the recent swing low around 1.1324.

Source: TradingView.com Below there, the 1.1300 area becomes the next key objective for the EURUSD chart. That level also coincides with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the March-to-April rally, making it an important technical support zone.

Given the combination of rising energy prices, improving dollar sentiment and the prospect of further Fed tightening, rallies may continue to attract sellers.

On the upside, initial resistance is located around 1.1450, with a stronger barrier between 1.1480 and 1.1500.

With the eurozone economic calendar relatively light in the days ahead, the EUR/USD forecast is tilted to the downside. The pair is likely to remain driven primarily by developments in oil markets, geopolitical headlines and evolving expectations for US monetary policy rather than domestic European data.

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

EUR/GBP has slid to its weakest level in a year, as the two currencies continue to follow increasingly divergent paths. The ECB's June hike—its first since 2023—was meant to signal renewed hawkishness, but the very next inflation print undercut that narrative: price growth cooled from 3.2% to 2.8%, enough for markets to now assign an 88% probability that policymakers will simply hold steady at their July 23 meeting.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.08 per troy ounce, up 0.76% from the $57.65 it cost on Monday.

Silver prices have decreased by 18.29% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.20 on Tuesday, down from 69.42 on Monday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Summary:

The USD/JPY halted its bullish trend and moved sideways, struggling to breach the 163.00 level despite escalating US-Iran tensions The pair flatlined as simultaneous safe-haven demand for both the greenback and the yen created an evenly matched tug-of-war Spiking crude oil prices fueled expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike, capping further dollar gains The USD/JPY currency pair saw a big jump from early May to early July 2026, hitting highs not seen in years, over 162. But lately, it’s been trading in a small range, getting stuck near the 163.00 mark. This quiet period comes as new military clashes between the US and Iran have sent oil prices up.

Why Isn’t Geopolitical Risk Pushing It Higher? This is the puzzle. The dollar went up against the yen for four days straight because of the fighting in the Middle East, but it couldn’t get past last week’s high of 162.40. Oil markets, however, reacted much more strongly.

Oil prices, which had gone back to where they were before the conflict after a note in mid-June, are now about 9% higher than before the US and Israel first struck Iran in late February. This happened after new US strikes aimed at weakening Iran’s ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

The contrarian behaviour comes down to a tug-of-war between two competing forces. On one side, when people get worried about risk and flock to safe places, it usually helps the dollar because it’s seen as a safe haven.

But on the other side, the yen is also a traditional safe haven currency, and increased risk in the Middle East tends to make people buy yen too. Since both currencies are getting safe-haven money at the same time, they’re basically canceling each other out.

On top of that, there’s the risk of intervention. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has a pattern where they talk tough, then check interest rates, and finally intervene directly. They’ve already gone through the first steps of this, which is making currency traders hesitant to push the pair much higher than 163.00.

How the Current Setup Impacts USD/JPY Outlook The interest rate gap between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is a primary factor supporting the dollar. The Fed’s approach, influenced by inflation worries, contrasts with the Bank of Japan’s gradual policy adjustments. This difference in policy encourages carry trades that favor the dollar against the yen over the medium term.

Continued dollar strength is underpinned by the interest rate differential. Recent US Consumer Price Index data for June 2026, at 3.2%, exceeded forecasts, making an imminent Fed rate cut less probable. This contrasts sharply with the Bank of Japan, which has maintained its policy rate close to zero.

This policy divergence suggests a potential for sustained yen weakness. However, in the short term, the 163.00 level appears to be a cap on USD/JPY’s upward movement. Significant changes, such as a de-escalation of Middle East tensions, an unexpected policy shift from the Bank of Japan, or direct currency intervention by Japan, would be needed to overcome this resistance.

Forex market participants should trade this currency pair with careful consideration. Those holding long positions may want to secure profits near resistance levels or implement trailing stop-loss orders. For traders considering new positions, looking for clear breakouts or pullbacks to support areas might present more favorable risk-reward opportunities.

Why has USD/JPY shown sideways movement recently?

While military strikes between the US and Iran have driven up oil prices, concerns about potential Japanese currency intervention and Japan’s reliance on energy imports have limited gains above the 163.00 mark.

How do geopolitical events affect this pair?

Geopolitical tensions support the dollar as safe-haven but raise oil prices, pressuring Japan’s economy and prompting potential BOJ actions.

What major downside risk is keeping bullish USD/JPY traders from aggressively buying the currency pair at current levels?

Traders are highly fearful of direct market intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance to artificially strengthen the yen from historic lows.

The USD/JPY pair remains on the back foot through the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Intervention risks support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for spot prices amid a softer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, remain close to a four-decade high, touched earlier this month, as traders await US consumer inflation figures and Federal Reserve's (Fed) Kevin Warsh's inaugural congressional testimony.

In the meantime, the persistently wide interest rate gap between Japan and other major economies, including the US, continues to undermine the JPY amid economic concerns stemming from the Middle East crisis. Furthermore, escalating US-Iran tensions and firming Fed hike expectations, amid renewed inflation fears due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, help limit the USD losses and warrant some caution before placing bearish bets on the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices remain confined between two converging trend lines, forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. Against the backdrop of a strong rally from the May monthly swing low, the said triangle might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase before the next leg up. Furthermore, a corrective pullback earlier this month showed resilience below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators are relatively muted. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 52, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is fractionally positive near the zero line, hinting at a cautious upside tone rather than an impulsive rally. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a breakout through the triangle resistance, near 162.55-162.60, before positioning for any further appreciation for the USD/JPY pair.

On the downside, the latest close at 162.10-162.00 forms initial intraday support, ahead of the rising trend-line floor at 161.60 and the 200-period EMA clustered near 161.15. A convincing break and acceptance below the latter would be needed to signal a deeper corrective phase in the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the broader technical setup suggests that the uptrend is still intact despite the latest consolidation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.20%-0.15%-0.45%-0.35%-0.83%-0.27%EUR0.16%-0.03%0.04%-0.29%-0.18%-0.66%-0.10%GBP0.20%0.03%0.07%-0.24%-0.13%-0.63%-0.06%JPY0.15%-0.04%-0.07%-0.31%-0.23%-0.71%-0.16%CAD0.45%0.29%0.24%0.31%0.09%-0.38%0.17%AUD0.35%0.18%0.13%0.23%-0.09%-0.48%0.10%NZD0.83%0.66%0.63%0.71%0.38%0.48%0.56%CHF0.27%0.10%0.06%0.16%-0.17%-0.10%-0.56% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) trades slightly higher to near 1.1395 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar corrects ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% lower to near 101.15.

Investors will closely track the US inflation data, as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting showed that policymakers see high inflation as a “dominant risk”. On Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller also warned of tight monetary conditions in the near-term if inflation figures come higher again.

"I don’t take the inflationary signals I have discussed today lightly. If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term," Waller said, Reuters report.

According to estimates, the US headline CPI growth cooled down to 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) in June from 4.2% in May, with core figures rising steadily by 2.9%. On a monthly basis, the headline inflation is seen declining by 0.1%, while core figures are estimated to have remained steady at 0.2%.

Later in the day, investors will also focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress. Warsh is unlikely to provide cues regarding the US interest rate outlook, as he clarified in June’s policy press conference that forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture.

On the Euro front, investors seek fresh cues regarding whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates again this year. Analysts at MUFG expect the ECB to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in the September meeting. The ECB also raised its key rates in the June policy meeting and guided to remain data-dependent going forward.

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.