Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

EURGBP edges higher in early Thursday after hitting 13-month low following 0.8% drop on Wednesday (the biggest daily loss since June 22), when the pound was strongly lifted by signals that new PM Burnham will pick a fiscally conservative finance minister to be in charge of handling fragile public finances.

Oversold daily studies contributed to partial profit-taking after strong fall on Wednesday, with limited upticks seen rather as positioning for fresh push lower, as larger downtrend remains intact.

Technical picture on daily chart remains bearish, though with overstretched momentum studies that open way for some corrective action.

Falling 10DMA (0.8520) should ideally cap and guard upper breakpoints at 0.8550 zone (broken 50% retracement of 0.8222/0.8865 rally / 100WMA), violation of which may sideline larger bears for stronger bounce that would unmask next key barriers at 0.8600/10 zone (200WMA / former range floor and higher base).

Firm break of cracked Fibo support at 0.8467 (61.8% of 0.8222/0.8865) where bears faced strong headwinds on Wednesday / today, would signal continuation of larger downtrend and expose targets at 0.8373 (Fibo 76.4%) and 0.8355 (29 May 2025 low).

Res: 0.8500; 0.8520; 0.8550; 0.8600
Sup: 0.8467; 0.8449; 0.8373; 0.8355

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday uptick on Wednesday and trades around the 0.8060 area during the early European session, just above the weekly low touched the previous day.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers as traders pared their bets for an immediate US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the wake of soft US inflation figures, released this week. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair. However, concerns about energy-driven keep Fed rate hike prospects on the table, which, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, lend some support to the safe-haven buck and should limit the downside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF pair, so far, has managed to hold above a key horizontal resistance breakpoint, now turned support, near the 0.8000 psychological mark, and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This keeps the near-term bias mildly bullish, though mixed momentum indicators warrant some caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 suggests a neutral-to-constructive momentum backdrop rather than overbought conditions.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stays below zero, hinting that upside progress is gradual and vulnerable to pauses despite the pair trading above its main trend gauge. Nevertheless, any subsequent slide is more likely to attract some buyers near the 0.8000 mark, with stronger underlying demand at the 200-day SMA near 0.7919. As long as the USD/CHF pair holds above the latter level, the broader technical structure favors bullish traders.

On the top side, the 0.8100 mark now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which spot prices could climb to mid-0.8100s, or the highest since July 2025, touched on Tuesday. A sustained strength beyond will set the stage for an extension of the recent upward trajectory from 0.7760 or the May swing low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Summary:

USD/SEK remains supported as geopolitical tensions keep demand for the US dollar elevated despite softer US inflation. Sweden's resilient economy and a cautious Riksbank continue to provide medium-term support for the Swedish krona. Traders are watching Fed expectations, oil prices and global risk sentiment for the next move in USD/SEK. The USD/SEK currency pair remains in focus as investors weigh two competing macroeconomic themes: renewed demand for the US dollar as a global safe-haven asset and growing optimism surrounding Sweden’s economic outlook.

While softer US inflation data has eased expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated Treasury yields have continued to support the greenback. At the same time, the Swedish krona has shown resilience after the Riksbank signaled it remains cautious on inflation, limiting expectations for rapid policy easing.

The result is a market where USD/SEK continues to trade within a relatively stable range as investors wait for the next major catalyst.

Safe-Haven Demand Keeps the US Dollar Supported The US dollar has remained resilient even after recent economic data suggested inflationary pressures are gradually easing.

Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for June came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations that inflation is moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Under normal circumstances, weaker inflation would reduce demand for the dollar by lowering expectations for additional interest rate hikes.

However, the latest escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran has shifted investor attention toward safety. Rising geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets, helping the US dollar recover despite improving inflation data. Higher US Treasury yields have also continued attracting global capital into dollar-denominated assets, providing another source of support for the world’s reserve currency.

Sweden’s Economic Fundamentals Continue to Support the Krona While the US dollar has benefited from global uncertainty, the Swedish krona has remained underpinned by relatively solid domestic fundamentals.

The Riksbank recently left interest rates unchanged while warning that inflation risks have not completely disappeared. Policymakers acknowledged that geopolitical developments and higher energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook, reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated.

Sweden’s economy is also expected to recover gradually during 2026 as consumer demand improves and inflation continues to moderate. Several analysts believe the krona remains undervalued relative to its long-term fundamentals, supporting expectations for gradual appreciation once global market volatility begins to ease.

This combination of resilient economic growth and a cautious central bank has helped prevent a sharper decline in the Swedish currency.

Geopolitical Risks Are Becoming a Key Driver for USD/SEK Recent developments in the Middle East have become one of the biggest influences on currency markets.

Renewed military tensions have lifted crude oil prices and increased uncertainty across global financial markets. During periods of heightened geopolitical risk, investors typically move capital toward safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar while reducing exposure to smaller, more risk-sensitive currencies, including the Swedish krona.

Although Sweden is not directly affected by the conflict, changing global risk sentiment continues to influence demand for SEK as investors adjust their exposure to European currencies. As long as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, safe-haven flows could continue supporting the US dollar against the krona.

Federal Reserve and Riksbank Policy Divergence Remains in Focus Interest rate expectations continue to play a central role in the outlook for USD/SEK.

The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious approach, indicating that future policy decisions will depend on incoming inflation and labour market data. While softer inflation has reduced some expectations for additional tightening, policymakers continue to stress that inflation risks have not completely disappeared.

Meanwhile, the Riksbank has adopted a similarly cautious tone. Although Swedish inflation has moderated significantly from previous highs, officials remain reluctant to signal rapid interest rate cuts while geopolitical risks continue to threaten energy prices.

This narrowing policy gap between the two central banks has helped prevent larger swings in USD/SEK despite ongoing volatility across global markets.

What Could Move USD/SEK Next? The next direction for USD/SEK will likely depend on several important developments.

Investors will closely monitor upcoming US economic data, including retail sales and labour market indicators, for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Additional comments from Fed officials could also influence Treasury yields and the broader US dollar.

In Sweden, markets will continue assessing inflation data and any new communication from the Riksbank regarding future monetary policy.

Global developments may ultimately prove just as important. Oil prices, geopolitical headlines from the Middle East, and broader risk sentiment are expected to remain major drivers of demand for both the US dollar and the Swedish krona over the coming weeks.

For now, USD/SEK reflects a balance between continued safe-haven demand for the dollar and improving confidence in Sweden’s medium-term economic outlook, leaving traders focused on which of these forces ultimately gains the upper hand.

Why is USD/SEK rising today?

USD/SEK is finding support as investors move into the US dollar following renewed geopolitical tensions and higher Treasury yields. Safe-haven demand has outweighed the impact of softer US inflation data.

What factors have the biggest impact on USD/SEK?

The most important drivers of USD/SEK include Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, Riksbank monetary policy, US and Swedish inflation data, Treasury yields, geopolitical developments, and overall global market sentiment.

Why is the Swedish krona important for forex traders?

The Swedish krona is considered a cyclical currency that often reflects investor sentiment toward European economic growth. It is also influenced by Riksbank policy, inflation trends, and global risk appetite.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD has surged to a two‑month high, with deeply overbought conditions but scope for further gains. Intraday, upside is seen limited to a test of 1.3560 while holding above 1.3480. On a 1–3 week view, renewed momentum suggests the Pound has resumed its advance, with 1.3590 the level to monitor and strong support at 1.3450.

Overbought Pound still has upside scope"24-HOUR VIEW: We did not expect GBP to surge to a high of 1.3556 yesterday (we had expected range-trading). The sharp rally appears excessive, but with no sign of pause yet, GBP could continue to rise. However, given the deeply overbought conditions, any advance could be limited to a test of 1.3560. The major resistance at 1.3590 is unlikely to come under threat. To sustain the overbought momentum, GBP must not break below 1.3480 (minor support is at 1.3510)."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (13 Jul, spot at 1.3375), when we highlighted that “the GBP advance from late last month has ended.” We also highlighted that “for the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range between 1.3320 and 1.3445.” In a sudden move yesterday, GBP lifted off and broke above 1.3445, surging to a high of 1.3556. The renewed upward momentum suggests that GBP has resumed its advance. That said, short-term conditions are deeply overbought, and the pace of any further advance is likely to be slower. The level to monitor is 1.3590. We will maintain a positive GBP stance as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3450."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

GBP/USD Jumps to Two-Month High on Chancellor Reports and Softer Fed Outlook GBP/USD has climbed to a two-month high above 1.35 as investors continue to scale back Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and welcome reports over the UK's next Chancellor.

Reports that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood will be appointed Chancellor by incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham have helped to reassure the market and ease concerns. The market had been fretting that Burnham could appoint a more fiscally expansionary candidate, such as Ed Miliband. UK government gilt yields are edging lower on the news.

Meanwhile, UK GDP data showed the economy returned to growth in May after contracting in April. GDP rose 0.1% month-on-month, beating expectations for no growth following April's 0.1% decline.

Looking beneath the headline, the services sector, which accounts for around 80% of the UK economy, expanded 0.3%. However, construction output fell 0.8%, while industrial production declined 0.5%, suggesting the recovery remains uneven.

Looking ahead, renewed tensions in the Middle East could cloud the outlook for the economy. Oil prices have risen to a monthly high, weighing on the economic outlook while increasing the risk of higher inflation

Higher oil prices are reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy later this year. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike in November, with another increase expected in March 2027.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has fallen to a monthly low after softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data this week, which followed last week's weaker labour market report. Together, the data have prompted investors to rule out a July rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

Markets now price around a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.

However, downside in the dollar could prove limited. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities could support safe-haven demand for the greenback, while rising oil prices risk reigniting inflation concerns and lifting Treasury yields.

Attention now turns to today's U.S. retail sales report, which is expected to show sales rose 0.2% month-on-month in June after 0.9% growth previously. A stronger-than-expected reading could lend support to the dollar.

GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has recovered from the 1.3200 support zone, breaking above both the 200-day SMA and the multi-month falling trendline to reach a high of 1.3550.

The breakout, together with the RSI holding above 50, keeps the near-term technical outlook constructive.

Buyers will look to extend gains towards 1.3600, followed by 1.3650, the May high. A move above there would bring 1.3800 into focus.

Initial support is seen around 1.3500, where the former trendline resistance has become support. A break below this level would expose the 200-day SMA near 1.3400, followed by horizontal support at 1.3340. Below there, sellers could target the 1.3200 support zone.

Oil Steadies Near $80 as U.S.-Iran Hostilities Remain in Focus Oil prices are holding near a monthly high, with WTI trading around $80 per barrel, as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to underpin the market.

The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports earlier this week, while Tehran has threatened to disrupt more regional energy exports as tensions between the two sides continue to escalate.

Although geopolitical risks remain supportive of crude prices, the market has paused after the sharp rally earlier this week.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels, with just seven vessels transiting the waterway on Wednesday, down from 13 a day earlier.

At the same time, mediation efforts by neighbouring countries continue. The fact that oil prices have stabilised around current levels suggests investors are not yet pricing in a full-scale regional conflict.

However, a geopolitical risk premium remains firmly embedded in the market. Any signs that Iran could use its Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would likely add further upward pressure to oil prices.

Looking further ahead, oil prices could remain elevated into the fourth quarter if export flows continue to recover only slowly, particularly with global inventories already depleted following substantial drawdowns during the second quarter.

Conversely, a sustained easing in tensions alongside a faster recovery in production could see crude prices move back towards the $60 area by year-end.

Oil Forecast – Technical Analysis

After breaking below its symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-day SMA, oil found support around $67 before staging a strong recovery.

The price has now reclaimed the 200-day SMA and is testing key resistance around $80, where the psychological level coincides with the April low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $55 to $120.

With the RSI above 50, buyers will look for a break above $80, which would expose $88, where the 50-day SMA, the falling trendline resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement converge. Above there, $95 comes into focus.

Failure to overcome the 50-day SMA could see support tested around the 200-day SMA at $74.40. A break below there would shift attention back towards the $67-$70 support zone.

The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate strengthened on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada maintained interest rates and struck a cautious tone on the outlook for monetary policy.

At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8903, up around 0.4% on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.89695 (+0.77%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.606759 (+0.09%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.40514 (-0.01%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) retreated on Wednesday as markets digested the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision.

As was widely expected, the BoC opted to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% following its July policy meeting.

The bank’s accompanying statement also appeared to signal that policymakers are in no rush to follow some of their peers in tightening monetary policy, as they expect inflation to ease through the second half of 2026 and return to the 2% target in early 2027.

The cautious messaging from the Bank, coupled with a pullback in oil prices from Wednesday’s earlier highs, led investors to largely shun the ‘Loonie’.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) spent Wednesday trading sideways against most of its major peers.

With no major domestic economic releases to provide direction, investors instead focused on developments in the UK bond market.

A steady rise in gilt yields pushed the benchmark 10-year yield close to its highest level in two months, tempering sentiment towards Sterling.

Higher borrowing costs continue to raise concerns that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham could face a more challenging fiscal backdrop as elevated financing costs weigh on the UK's economic outlook.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Positive UK GDP Print to Strengthen Sterling? Looking ahead, the UK’s latest GDP figures are likely to provide the next major catalyst for the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate.

Economists expect monthly growth to return to positive territory in May, with output forecast to rise by 0.1% after April’s 0.1% contraction.

While a return to growth could support Sterling, any gains may prove limited if the underlying data still points to an uneven economic recovery.

Meanwhile, as the impact of the Bank of Canada’s policy decision fades, attention is likely to return to oil price movements.

Any renewed strength in crude prices could provide support for the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar through the remainder of the week.

Key Points:U.S. retail sales and jobless claims could significantly influence Fed rate expectations and the dollar's next move.Stronger economic data would reinforce the higher-for-longer interest rate outlook, supporting the U.S. dollar.DXY remains under pressure below key moving averages as traders watch whether support at 100.35 can hold.EUR/USD confirmed a bullish triangle breakout, putting the focus on resistance near the 1.1493 level.GBP/USD remains in a strong uptrend above key moving averages, with buyers targeting the 1.3560 resistance.

PREMIUM

Read what the experts are trading this weekExclusive analysis from FXEmpire top analysts — curated insights you won't find on the free site.

In-depth analysis

Curated reports

Top analysts

Unlock Premium

US Dollar News: Retail Sales Test Fed Rate Outlook US dollar is driven today by June retail sales release as well as latest weekly jobless claims. These data releases provide the key drivers as to where we see the Fed heading next. Market participants expect retail sales to report a 0.3% monthly gain after May’s 0.9% decline, while weekly initial jobless claims are also expected to rise modestly to 217,500 from 215,000 last week. If the US sees stronger than expected readings in today’s retail sales releases, together with jobless claims continuing at the lowest levels in history, this will reinforce the notion of continued economic strength in the US economy, leading to higher US rates for longer.

The euro is back in focus as the market thinks that the ECB will keep deposit rate at 2.25% and also its stance is that of data dependent to deal with the inflationary risk. Sterling now seems to be pricing in the Bank of England keeping rates steady with Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% after a 7 to 2 vote to keep rates steady in June while looking at inflation which stood at 2.8%, labor market conditions softening, and geopolitics being another headwind.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Will DXY Recover From $100.35 or Extend Its Decline?

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around 100.48 as it has fallen below both the 50-EMA (at 100.90) and 100-EMA (at 100.86), giving short-term sellers the upper hand. A few sharp red candlesticks sent the index below the descending trendline and the Fibonacci support levels, and it is currently hovering above the 0 level at 100.35. Resistance is at 100.61, then 100.77 and 100.89.

RSI at 38 reflects weakening momentum, which means the pair is in oversold territory, indicating that downside pressures are strong although short-term consolidation could take place. With this in mind, I would avoid any trades until an apparent recovery to the upside of 100.61 is seen, where I would anticipate a trade around 100.89, although the downside of 100.35 remains a threat.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Can Bulls Extend the Breakout Toward $1.3560? GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3537, holding above the rising trendline after surpassing the previous swing high. The pair trades higher than the 50-EMA (at 1.3401) and 100-EMA (at 1.3368) as it is clear that buyers still are in a leading position. The recent green candlesticks pushed the pair higher to an intraday high of 1.3559 after minor consolidation, which I would consider as profit-taking rather than a signal of any major trend change.

The 0.236 Fibonacci level at 1.3507 represents support now, with the next level at 1.3475. Resistance levels are at 1.3560 and then 1.3638. RSI at 61 shows the pair remains comfortably bullish and far away from overbought, indicating the room for further bullish momentum remains intact. With this in mind, I would buy when price trades above 1.3507 and target profit at 1.3560, however, if the pair falls below 1.3475, then the pair may retest the support of 1.3449.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Is the Break Above Triangle Resistance Opening the Door to $1.1493? EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is trading near 1.1468 after breaking out of the trendline to the upside of a descending pattern that has formed a triangle shape and regained the 50-EMA (at 1.1428) and the 100-EMA (at 1.1437). The recent candlesticks have closed higher than the earlier resistance zone near 1.1461, indicating that buyers have stepped in after a period of sideways consolidation.

Resistance at 1.1493 is now in place, with 1.1461 as support initially and then 1.1412 after that. RSI at 61 shows the bullish bias is building strength, however, is not yet considered overbought. With this in mind, I would buy when price trades above 1.1461, aiming at taking profit around 1.1493. But if the pair drops below 1.1412, the pair will become less attractive as a buy.

Related Articles

NASDAQ Index, SP500, Dow Jones Forecasts – NASDAQ Moves Higher As Apple Gains 4%U.S. Dollar Retreats As Producer Prices Drop: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPYForex Forecasts – US Dollar Fights Back as Dynamic Support HoldsAbout the Author

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Gold – Chart Gold price is trading just under $4,029 on the 4-hour chart, after falling further down below the 50 EMA at $4,070 and staying well below the 100 EMA at $4,103 in the near-term. Recent candlesticks have been printing lower highs and lower lows below the descending trendline, and gold has continued to get rejected by $4,090 again and again, suggesting that sellers are very much in control of the market.

Now, gold price is currently near the $4,020 support area and could fall further down if it falls below this zone towards $3,962. Also, gold’s RSI on the 4-hour chart is hovering near 44, which is still far above the oversold zone, which means that there’s still potential downside for gold price.

However, it should remain stable above the key level for a price recovery back above $4,090 and towards $4,140. Given my analysis, I think that it should trade above $4,090 to target a price at $4,140. However, gold price could break down and trade to a level of $3,962 if it falls below $4,020.

Silver Technical Analysis: Can the Long-Term Demand Zone Stop Another Wave of Selling?

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has broken above prior resistance, with rapid gains seen up to 1.1482. Intraday, the pair is seen capable of testing 1.1490 while staying below significant resistance at 1.1520. Over the next 1–3 weeks, upward momentum is building quickly, with an upside bias as long as 1.1405 strong support holds.

Rapid gains support constructive outlook"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR popped to a high of 1.1462 two days ago before retreating quickly. When EUR was at 1.1425 yesterday, we stated that “the brief rise did not result in any significant increase in momentum,” and we expected it to “trade in a range between 1.1390 and 1.1455.” Our assessments turned out to be incorrect. EUR initially dropped to 1.1405 before rising sharply to 1.1482. While the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for EUR to test 1.1490. We do not expect the significant resistance at 1.1520 to come into view. Support is at 1.1450; a breach of 1.1435 would mean that the immediate upward pressure has eased."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (14 Jul, spot at 1.1385), we detected a slight increase in downward momentum. However, we pointed out that EUR “must close below 1.1360 before a move to 1.1325 can be expected.” After EUR broke above our ‘strong resistance’ level, we highlighted yesterday (15 Jul, spot at 1.1425) that “the mild downward momentum has eased, and EUR has likely reverted into a range-trading phase, most likely between 1.1390 and 1.1475.” We did not expect EUR to break above 1.1475 so soon as it soared to a high of 1.1482. Upward momentum is building quickly, and from here, as long as 1.1405 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached, EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias. Currently, it is too early to determine whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to reach the significant resistance level at 1.1520."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Maintains constructive uptrend above 1.3500 despite mild lossesThe GBP/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.3535 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Markets might turn cautious ahead of the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and the US Retail Sales data, which are due later on Thursday.

Traders raise their bets on rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) this year, given the expected impact on inflation from higher oil prices. Money markets are fully pricing in a hike by the November policy meeting, with a second rate hike priced in by April 2027, according to Reuters. Prior to the US-Iran war, traders had been expecting the BoE to lower interest rates twice this year. Read more...

British Pound weakens below 1.3550 on renewed US strikes on IranThe GBP/USD pair declines to near 1.3530 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as renewed conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have reignited energy-driven inflation risks. Traders brace for the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and the US Retail Sales data, which are due later on Thursday.

The US military said it has launched another wave of strikes against Iran in a further effort to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, per the Guardian. Explosions were reported late on Wednesday on Iran’s Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and locations in the Sistan-Baluchestan province. Read more...

The British Pound Sterling breaks out on the strength of someone else's weaknessCable spent the London morning drifting, printed the session low at 1.3381 shortly after 10:00 GMT, and then spent the New York afternoon repricing the entire Dollar complex. The Pound trades near 1.3540 at writing, up better than 1% in one of its strongest sessions of the year, after tagging 1.3558 and clearing both the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 1.3400 handle in a single afternoon. The move answers a month of indecision around those levels with the subtlety of a brick.

The significance here is structural rather than cosmetic. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs sit clustered at 1.3376 and 1.3385, and most of July's price action had been compressed between that band and the 1.3400 shelf, a coil that has now released in one direction. A single session does not repair a downtrend that ran from late April into early July, but it does shift the burden of proof onto Dollar bulls for the first time in months. Read more...

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 486.78 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 490.30 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,677.69 per tola from SAR 5,718.71 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

486.78

10 Grams

4,867.78

Tola

5,677.69

Troy Ounce

15,140.44

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the authorities are ready to take appropriate action on currency anytime as needed. She added that the officials will track market trends and economic data to ensure fiscal sustainability.

Senior officials from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) noted that a delay in stimulus adjustment amid high inflation risk could trigger an economic downturn. However, a Reuters survey showed earlier Thursday that nearly half of Japanese firms are experiencing negative business impact from the BoJ's interest rate hikes, with higher borrowing costs hurting bottom lines and discouraging capital investment. 

Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as price remains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands 20-period middle band, suggesting the broader uptrend is still supported despite recent consolidation. The latest Relative Strength Index (14) reading around 57 keeps momentum on the constructive side, hinting that buyers retain control as long as the pair stays comfortably above the lower Bollinger band at 111.10.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger upper band around 113.70, where a sustained break would open the door to the May 13 high of 114.74.

On the downside, the first layer of support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 112.40, while a deeper pullback towards the lower band at 111.10 would be needed to seriously challenge the prevailing bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,488.37 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,573.30 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,658.30 per tola from INR 146,652.50 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,488.37

10 Grams

124,880.60

Tola

145,658.30

Troy Ounce

388,432.20

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 476.41 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 479.42 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,556.81 per tola from AED 5,591.87 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

476.41

10 Grams

4,764.24

Tola

5,556.81

Troy Ounce

14,818.06

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 185.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is retaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests positive but not overextended momentum, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone.

The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross positioning near the upper boundary of an ascending triangle around 186.10, suggesting that price crowding right against that flat ceiling indicates that buyers are aggressively absorbing all selling pressure at that level. This positioning shows immense bullish pressure. Since the dips are getting shallower, staying near the top suggests a breakout above resistance is likely building up.

A decisive daily close above this upper boundary typically triggers a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.35, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.05. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 184.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%0.12%-0.05%0.08%0.09%0.12%0.11%EUR-0.00%0.11%-0.04%0.08%0.19%0.13%0.10%GBP-0.12%-0.11%-0.15%-0.02%0.06%0.02%0.00%JPY0.05%0.04%0.15%0.09%0.20%0.16%0.15%CAD-0.08%-0.08%0.02%-0.09%0.10%0.07%0.05%AUD-0.09%-0.19%-0.06%-0.20%-0.10%-0.01%-0.05%NZD-0.12%-0.13%-0.02%-0.16%-0.07%0.01%-0.03%CHF-0.11%-0.10%-0.01%-0.15%-0.05%0.05%0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $57.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. The price of the non-yielding white metal faces significant challenges as rising US-Iran tensions boost oil prices and spark fresh inflation concerns. This geopolitical friction threatens to prolong the Federal Reserve's (Fed) higher interest rate environment.

The Guardian reported that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched another wave of strikes in a concerted effort to keep the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway open. In a direct escalation of hostilities, CENTCOM confirmed that US aircraft fired missiles into an oil tanker’s smokestack within the strategic passage, effectively disabling the vessel and keeping global markets on edge. When questioned on whether Iran faces a strict timeline before the US begins targeting domestic infrastructure, such as Iranian bridges, US President Donald Trump stated to reporters that he "does not like giving deadlines."

Amid this escalating conflict in the Middle East, traders are closely assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in light of recently softened US inflation data. Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 3.5% in June from the three-year high of 4.2% set in May, coming in well below the market expectation of 3.8%. This weaker consumer inflation data initially helped reduce immediate concerns that the Fed would soon raise interest rates.

Further supporting this cooling trend, Wednesday's data showed the US Producer Price Index (PPI) declined to 5.5% on a yearly basis in June, down from 6% in May and below the market expectation of 6.2%. On a monthly basis, the PPI dropped by 0.3%, a notable shift from the 0.6% increase recorded in May and an improvement compared to analysts' estimates of no change.

Consequently, markets scaled back expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, with the implied probability falling to around 44% from 50% just a day earlier. However, because the interim peace agreement reached last month has effectively unraveled, June’s inflation data does not yet capture the economic impact of this latest military escalation between the US and Iran.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Since forming the all‑time high at $121.6 on January 29, 2026, Silver (XAG/USD) has entered a pronounced correction. The decline has unfolded with a clear Elliott Wave structure, and the ideal extreme target remains the 100% Fibonacci extension at $38.8. Whether this level will ultimately be reached is uncertain, but the broader corrective sequence continues to suggest further downside potential. Short term, the rally to $63.29 marked the completion of wave (B), as illustrated in the one‑hour chart. From that point, the market resumed lower in wave (C), which is progressing with internal subdivision into five waves.

Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at $57.19. A corrective rally in wave ((ii)) terminated at $60.76. The subsequent decline in wave ((iii)) reached $56.84. The rally in wave ((iv)) concluded at $59.67. The structure indicates that wave ((v)) is now approaching completion, which should also finalize the higher degree wave 1 of (C). Once this initial leg is complete, the metal is expected to rally in wave 2, correcting the cycle from the July 6, 2026 high. This correction should unfold in either three or seven swings before the broader decline resumes. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $63.3 remains intact, rallies are expected to fail in corrective sequences. This reinforces the bearish outlook and opens the path for further downside extension.

Silver (XAGUSD) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart XAGUSD Elliott Wave Video: You are currently viewing a placeholder content from Default. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.

More Information

Elliott Wave Forecasthttps://elliottwave-forecast.com

ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to around $4,060 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal rebounds as softer US inflation has fueled hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold rates steady at the upcoming July policy meeting.

Producer inflation in the United States, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), declined to 5.5% YoY in June from 6.0% in May (revised from 6.5%), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. This reading came in softer than the market expectation of 6.2%. On a monthly basis, the PPI declined by 0.3%, compared to the 0.6% increase seen in May (revised from 1.1%) and improved compared with the estimate for no change. 

Traders see about a 10.2% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's July meeting, versus 16.6% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Earlier on Tuesday, U.S. consumer inflation also slowed more than expected in June. 

"Gold has pared losses from earlier this morning as PPI came in lower than expected and eased some of those concerns about the Fed having multiple interest rate hikes this year," said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

On the other hand, escalating US-Iran hostilities and airstrikes around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices up and could prompt central banks to hold rates at elevated levels for longer, weighing on gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

The BBC reported that the US had launched fresh strikes against Iran on Wednesday evening as US President Donald Trump warned Tehran it "better behave”. Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that Tehran had "no reason" to abide by the deal if it did benefit from it. On Tuesday, Trump had threatened to attack bridges and power plants should Iran not return to talks next week.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The USD/CHF breaks a rising wedge, tumbles over 0.62%, trading near three-day lows, as the pair clears the July 14 swing low of 0.8067. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8041.

The USD/CHF trend is upwards, but the trendline break during the day has opened the door to challenge the March 31 daily high-turned-support at 0.8042. 

Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about to turn bearish, sitting at a 50.50 reading at the brink of clearing the neutral level. This suggests that buyers had lost momentum over the last 14 trading sessions, opening the door to a challenge of key support levels.

If USD/CHF ends the day below 0.8100, this clears the path to challenge 0.8042. Below this level is the 0.8000 psychological level. Once those two levels are taken out, the next key support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7961, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7918.

On the other hand, a bullish resumption could pave the way to test the August 1, 2025, daily peak at 0.8171, followed by the June 4, 2025, daily high of 0.8250.

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The Gold price turns negative on Wednesday, even though the last two US inflation reports showed that prices are dropping, though developments in the Middle East sent energy prices higher. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD traded at $4,034, down some 0.53%.

XAU/USD falls as Oil-driven Dollar risks cap recoveryData in the US showed the Producer Price Index (PPI) dipped from 6% to 5.5% YoY, below estimates of a 6.2% increase. Core PPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose from 4.6% to 4.7% YoY, yet below forecasts of 5.2%.

Overall, the latest two inflation reports over the last two days eased pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed). 

On Tuesday, before the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), money markets were expecting at least 35 basis points of Fed tightening toward the end of the year. After the data, investors cut expectations for a rate hike in half, to just 22 bps, according to Prime Terminal data.

Source: Prime TerminalGeopolitics are also a driver that has kept Gold prices contained amid the rise in energy prices. Since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict, Oil has shown a positive correlation with the US Dollar, which has appreciated amid market players' expectations of higher interest rates, a headwind for Bullion prices.

Consequently, the ongoing escalation of the conflict after the US launched another wave of strikes against Iran stalled Gold’s recovery, which was poised to test the $4,150 mark.

Furthermore, Washington has reimposed the blockade on Iran, while the latter threatened to shut off more regional energy exports.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.5% at 100.42, refreshing the current week’s low. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield is down nearly four basis points at 4.549%, providing a tailwind for the yellow metal.

Fed officials’ stance remained unchangedMeanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is making headlines. He stated that the rise in prices is partly due to AI and mentioned that short-term disruptions from its impact cannot be ruled out.

New York Fed President John Williams stated there’s no clear interest rate path, noting solid economic growth and a strong labor market. He mentioned the Middle East conflict poses “significant risks” that the US economy has so far absorbed. 

What to expect on July 16?Ahead, the US economic docket will feature Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales for June, and further Fed speakers, led by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Regional Bank Presidents Lorie Logan and Jeffrey Schmid.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s downtrend intact below $4,100Gold’s trend remains downwards but is about to turn neutral. Although momentum remains bearish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the slope has flattened, suggesting sideways trading ahead. Also, buyers stepping in puts pressure on the psychological $4,100 mark, which, if broken, can set the stage for a rally.

In that outcome, the first resistance is the July 14 high of $4,103. Once surpassed, the next stop is a downslope resistance trendline at around $4,125-$4,130, before XAU/USD could aim toward the psychological $4,150 level. Above this level lies $4,200.

However, if Gold stays below $4,100, a resumption of the downtrend is likely. The first support would be the psychological $4,000 level. A decisive break will expose the July 14 daily low at $3,983, before sellers test the current-year-to-date (YTD) low at $3,942.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the back foot on Wednesday, struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD) as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep bears in control. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $57.55, down 1.90% on the day.

Both the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June broadly missed market expectations. The softer inflation readings have reduced expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike, putting some pressure on the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades around 100.46, easing from an intraday high of 101.03.

However, the data did not materially change the Fed’s hawkish outlook. Inflation risks persist as Oil prices climb following renewed fighting in the Middle East, keeping the possibility of an interest rate hike later this year on the table.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said on Wednesday that inflation expectations remain anchored, although this depends on maintaining an appropriate monetary policy stance. She warned that the Fed “can’t take its eye off the ball.”

Cook said there are reasons to believe disinflation will occur but noted that price pressures could persist due to tariffs, the Middle East conflict and strong investment in artificial intelligence.

Expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated or even raise them remain a major headwind for Silver, as higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD retains a bearish bias as the price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 sits just above oversold territory, hinting at persistent downside pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally negative, reinforcing a capped tone despite some recent stabilization.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-period SMA near $59.42, followed closely by the 50-period SMA at $59.57, which together form a nearby supply zone ahead of the more distant 200-period SMA at $64.18.

On the downside, buyers are attempting to build a base in the $55.50-$56.00 region. A break below this area could trigger a deeper corrective decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The trading week continues to advance and, for now, the Canadian dollar has started to lose the strength it had shown in previous sessions. USD/CAD movements are barely registering a short-term variation near 0.05%, highlighting a loss of momentum.

For now, the selling pressure that USD/CAD had been showing has not managed to stabilize significantly after the Bank of Canada decision, which pointed to caution in monetary policy.

If the central bank fails to become a relevant catalyst for Canadian dollar demand, a phase of indecision could start to gain importance in USD/CAD movements over the next few sessions.

BoC day arrives During the session, the Bank of Canada published its interest rate decision, keeping the rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with expectations. The institution stated that current levels remain appropriate to support the economic recovery and bring inflation back toward the 2.00% target.

This stance reflects a cautious tone from the central bank. Although annual inflation in Canada has increased toward 3.2%, it is still not far enough from the target to justify a more aggressive stance. In addition, the bank continues to highlight that uncertainty remains elevated and that, with current rates, inflation should gradually ease.

Source: TradingEconomics

For now, this decision has not been enough to strengthen the Canadian dollar. The lack of signals around higher rates limits the appeal of CAD-denominated assets, especially compared to USD alternatives.

This dynamic is also reflected in Canada’s 10-year bonds, whose yield showed a decline close to -1.00% during the session. In addition, the spread against 10-year U.S. bonds remains relevant, as U.S. bonds still maintain a yield almost 1.00% higher.

Source: TradingEconomics

In this context, the Bank of Canada decision came without major surprises and failed to clearly improve the appeal of the Canadian market. For this reason, the recent recovery in the Canadian dollar appears to be explained more by U.S. dollar weakness than by the CAD’s own strength.

If new comments or data in the United States provide renewed support for the USD, USD/CAD could enter a phase of greater indecision over the next few trading sessions.

Technical forecast for USD/CAD

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

The uptrend comes to an end: Since the first days of May, USD/CAD had managed to maintain a consistent bullish trend line, which remained the dominant technical structure over recent weeks. However, with the recent price decline and U.S. dollar weakness, this trend line has been crossed in recent sessions. Despite the recent selling pressure, current movements have started to show a new sense of neutrality. If this behavior continues and the selling bias fails to stabilize, room could open for a phase of indecision or even the formation of a sideways range over the next few trading sessions.
  RSI: The RSI line remains close to the 50 level. This indicates that, for now, there is still a balance between bullish and bearish impulses in the market over the last 14 sessions. This reading shows that a phase of indecision has not been fully eliminated from the USD/CAD daily chart.
  TRIX: A similar dynamic can be seen in the TRIX. Although the line remains above the 0 level, indicating that the dominant strength of long-term exponential moving averages remains in bullish territory, a relevant flattening of the curve has started to appear. This suggests that the buying impulse from previous weeks has entered an important stagnation zone and makes a possible phase of neutrality relevant again on the USD/CAD daily chart.
  Key levels:

1.42089 – Relevant resistance: This 2026 high remains the most important buying barrier on the chart. Price movements toward this area could reactivate a buying bias and restore relevance to the bullish trend line that was important in previous weeks.
  1.40813 – Near-term barrier: This nearby zone corresponds to the most relevant 23.6% Fibonacci level on the chart. Price movements that fail to move consistently away from this level could continue to highlight an important phase of neutrality and even open room for the formation of a short-term sideways range.
  1.39905 – Crucial support: This relevant bearish barrier corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area and also aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements below this level could reaffirm a more consistent selling bias and open room for a possible short-term bearish trend line over the next few sessions. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

Although gold has gained close to 1.5% over the last 2 trading sessions, this move does not yet appear to confirm a dominant buying bias. For now, the metal continues to show a more neutral behavior, with demand strength still failing to recover fully after the release of PPI inflation data in the United States.

Chris Turner at ING says EUR/USD rallied on softer US CPI but warns that rising Oil and European natural gas prices limit upside. He expects EUR/USD to struggle above 1.1460/70 and potentially retreat toward 1.1360/80 if Oil gains another leg higher. Strong demand below 1.14 and possible rotation into European equities are noted, though flows into US-listed eurozone ETFs remain muted.

Energy sector weighs on Euro"Along with most dollar pairs, EUR/USD very much enjoyed yesterday's soft US CPI release. Were it not for developments in the Gulf and in energy markets in general, we would be happy to call EUR/USD steadily higher from here. But European natural gas is now back to levels seen in mid-March and, as above, it is too early to trade an 'all-clear' US inflation story."

"In the absence of a major improvement in energy markets, we suspect that EUR/USD will struggle to break above the 1.1460/70 area and again could move down to the 1.1360/80 area should oil prices deliver another leg higher."

"We do note, however, that there seems to be strong demand for EUR/USD sub 1.14. One suggestion could be a rotation into European equities as analysts raise expectations for European earnings. That may be the case, but so far those flows have not shown up in US-listed eurozone equity ETFs, e.g., the iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF."

"Elsewhere, a pro-risk environment given lower prospects of Fed tightening, higher energy prices and potentially lower volatility favouring the carry trade all point to the Norwegian krone recovering some of its losses since May. We have a one-month target at 11.05 for EUR/NOK, but the move could easily extend to 10.95."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

EUR/USD Talking Points: After showing strength in early 2026 trade EUR/USD bears took over in May and early-June. The sell-off has since slowed although buyers have yet to make much ground above 1.1469, begging the question as to whether a short squeeze and pullback could bring on bigger picture trend continuation potential. After a strong rally a year ago as markets were getting ready for FOMC rate cuts, EUR/USD has so far spent much of this year grinding, although there has been some short-term trend to work with. In early 2026 trade buyers were making a move, eventually setting a fresh four-year-high in the pair.

But as the Iran conflict took over so too did the fear of European energy vulnerability, and the Euro was hit hard in March to test below the 1.1500 level. A bounce in April was faded in May and June – but so far in July, that move has been stalled and price has been sitting around the 1.1400 handle, begging the question as to which trend will take over next.

EUR/USD Monthly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Next Steps A sell-off stalling can be read as either an impending reversal or a pause in trend. At this point, at least from a relative since with gold and Bitcoin rallying as GBP/USD showing greater strength, I think the bias indicates more of a pause than an impending reversal.

But – with that said, it’s the reaction to a rally and pullback that will illustrate which option is favorable moving forward. I covered this in yesterday’s webinar, as we can still make the claim of lower-lows in the pair from both weekly and monthly charts. But from the daily below we can see where that’s been somewhat messy, although there’s an important message contained in these candles. Sellers have so far responded to pullbacks, holding resistance around 1.1450. But, they’ve also swung less and less weight, illustrated by the higher-lows that have built over the past few weeks.

This indicates an oversold market and one that’s difficult to push for trend-side continuation at this point. It also highlights the possibility of a short-term bullish breakout, which could open the door for bigger picture trend continuation if sellers make a move on follow-through resistance. The 1.1500 area is an ideal spot to look for that to play above current highs, and then there’s a zone of prior support spanning from 1.1576 up to 1.1613 above that that’s of interest.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD: How to Position For Reversal From the above two charts we can see the bearish case fairly well illustrated by the lower-lows and highs that have shown in the pair. While many retail traders will try to trade reversals at the early stage, the fact of the matter is that until bulls show greater demand the forces of trend should be considered as bearish.

For trend traders, this means that they often will not get every pip of every move, and that’s somewhat of the point, as they’re instead trying to focus on probabilities and in this case, the more cogent way of going about the matter would be waiting for price to break above the lower-highs that have so far held, around the 1.1450 area, and then waiting for bulls to stretch up to deeper resistance, whether at 1.1500 or the zone above.

And then the corresponding reaction to that, can then be sought as a higher-low for those looking for the reversal theme. That way, if strength does not pan out, they can, at the least, abandon the trade upon a break to fresh lows.

At this point, we’re just not there yet from the daily chart so until that is the case, I’m looking at rallies in EUR/USD as short-term counter-trend setups.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro