Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold (XAU/USD) gains some meaningful positive traction on Thursday and rallies back above $4,150 during the Asian session, snapping a three-day losing streak to a one-week low, touched the previous day. The initial aggressive market reaction to hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures turned out to be short-lived amid the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not rush to raise interest rates immediately. This led to a further decline in US bond yields, which prompted some follow-through US Dollar (USD) profit-taking and provided a goodish lift to the non-yielding bullion.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated from 3.4% to 3.7% over the 12 months through September, surpassing consensus estimates. Adding to this, the core gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 2.6% last month, up from 2.4% in August. The data pointed to broadening price pressures, forcing investors to reassess the Fed's policy path.  However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank will probably need to raise interest rates further, though she signalled that there is no need to do so at the October meeting.

Daly leans hawkish but urges patience as markets digest CPIThe FXS Speechtracker score of 6.8/10 marks a modest hawkish tilt relative to the historical average of 6.1/10, underscoring a stance that keeps further rate hikes firmly on the table. Daly’s emphasis that gas-driven headline CPI is rising while core inflation remains stubborn, combined with the view that more tightening is likely but should not be rushed, signals a preference for data-dependent patience rather than immediate action. The focus on persistent above-target inflation risks, a steady labor market, and the reassurance that markets now better understand the Fed’s reaction function reinforces a carefully hawkish tone anchored in clear communication and accountability.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.84 points to 128.17, indicating a slight pullback in hawkish intensity even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that while the Fed tone is still clearly hawkish, the incremental shift reflects a more measured, deliberate approach to future policy moves rather than an escalation in Dollar-supportive rhetoric.

Nevertheless, market participants are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again by the end of this year. Moreover, inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices underpin prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed. Adding to this, escalating tensions in the Middle East could limit the ongoing USD corrective decline from its highest level since April 2025. In the latest developments, a container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday following a projectile attack, while the Iran-backed Houthi group continued launching drone and missile strikes across Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, the Houthis vowed to continue targeting Saudi Arabia's international airport and oil infrastructure in the coming days in response to Saudi Arabia's aggression against Yemen's capital, Sanaa. Separately, Russia accused Ukraine of launching strikes against two oil refineries, which it claims violated an energy ceasefire recently brokered by US President Donald Trump. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets on gold. The focus now shifts to the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due for release later today.

Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday will be looked upon for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the yellow metal. In the meantime, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop and the recent repeated failures to sustain a move above $4,200 make it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the Gold price has formed a near-term bottom around the $4,075-$4,065 region.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair keeps a capped tone below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is negative and below its signal line, with a contracting histogram, which suggests lingering downside pressure despite some stabilization in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the neutral 50 area.

Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the 100-period SMA near $4,180 might confront some resistance near the $4,215-$4,220 horizontal zone. A sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way to higher levels. On the flip side, the $4,100 mark could protect the immediate downside ahead of the $4,075-$4,065 region, which, if broken, will reaffirm the negative bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.62%-0.43%-0.38%-0.23%0.23%-0.57%-0.79%EUR0.62%0.18%0.25%0.36%0.88%0.02%-0.17%GBP0.43%-0.18%0.06%0.23%0.66%-0.16%-0.37%JPY0.38%-0.25%-0.06%0.13%0.62%-0.23%-0.42%CAD0.23%-0.36%-0.23%-0.13%0.46%-0.34%-0.55%AUD-0.23%-0.88%-0.66%-0.62%-0.46%-0.81%-1.02%NZD0.57%-0.02%0.16%0.23%0.34%0.81%-0.22%CHF0.79%0.17%0.37%0.42%0.55%1.02%0.22%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

RBNZ’s Conway says October rate decision completely open, OCR more likely to riseAUD lower: Australian jobs fall 39,300 in September, unemployment at five-year high of 4.7%BOJ’s Koeda says bank should not be overly cautious about raising ratesGold jumps around $40 as Treasury yields retreat from post-CPI highTalk grows that China is routing US Treasury holdings through Canada: BloombergBolivia overhauls gold export rules to draw in dollars and lift bank depositsUS weighs easing shadow fleet sanctions to cut record tanker freight ratesIran’s IRGC orders evacuation of military bases as US strike fears grow: reportsAustralian September 2026 unemployment rate 4.7% (expected 4.6%, prior 4.7%)CoreWeave bonds trade like distressed debt as AI spending outpaces balance sheetsTSMC set for sixth straight record profit as AI demand lifts Q3 earningsICYMI: Citi now expects a December Fed rate hike after hotter September US inflationUS inflation is becoming less widespread, and that matters more than the headline rate suggestsASML says 2027 and 2028 supply will fall short of demand as Q3 sales hit a recordAnthropic Q3 revenue rises 45% to $16.8 billion ahead of IPOStablecoins have stopped growing. So why is usage still rising?Fed’s Daly: more rate hikes likely needed, but no urgency to move in OctoberFed catch up - Goolsbee calls CPI discouraging as Beige Book flags diesel-fuelled price pressureOil catch up - price gains as Houthis strike Aramco and Iran flags new tactics against tankersOil: Private survey of inventory shows a huge headline crude oil drawBarclays sees possible Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement before DecemberSummary:

US Treasuries extended their rebound from post-CPI lows, with 10-year yields 21bp below their spike after Wednesday’s inflation dataThe US dollar fell broadly and gold rallied around $40, helped by lower yields and a Bloomberg report that China may hold more US debt than official data showOil dipped after a Reuters report that the US is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers to cut freight rates and boost Gulf oil flowsThe Australian dollar was the exception in FX, falling after September employment dropped 39,300 and unemployment held at 4.7%The Fed’s Mary Daly said further rate hikes are more likely than not, but signalled no need to move in October. The BOJ’s Koeda said the bank should not be overly cautious about raising ratesThe Nikkei fell 3.5% and South Korea’s Kospi extended losses as the tech hardware selloff deepenedBarclays said a Tesla and SpaceX merger announcement is possible before December, according to BloombergAnthropic’s Q3 revenue rose 45% to $16.8bn, Reuters reported. TSMC results are due, with its call at 0600 GMTTreasuries lead, dollar and gold follow

US Treasuries extended their recovery during the Asian session, pushing 10-year yields 21 basis points below the high they reached after Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data. The bond rally had wide effects across markets. The US dollar weakened against most major currencies, and gold climbed around $40.

Lower yields reduce the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, and that supported the metal. Sentiment toward Treasuries also drew support from a Bloomberg report that China may be holding more US government debt than official figures show. A sharp rise in Canada’s reported holdings of US securities, to nearly $600 billion, has fuelled speculation that China is holding bonds through custodians outside the United States. The claims are unconfirmed.

Gold-related news from Bolivia had limited direct bearing on prices. The country is replacing a central bank certificate for gold exports with a requirement that exporters show the regulator SENARECOM that at least 80% of proceeds are deposited in local banks, aiming to boost dollar inflows and oversight, Bloomberg reported.

Oil

Oil prices edged lower after a US official told Reuters that Washington is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers to bring down record freight rates and increase oil flows from the Gulf. High fuel prices are a political risk for the administration ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

Australian dollar falls on jobs data

The Australian dollar was the outlier in currency markets, falling while other major currencies gained against the US dollar. Australian employment unexpectedly fell in September, and the unemployment rate held at a five-year high of 4.7%. That prompted traders to scale back bets on another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike.

Central banks

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further rate increases are more likely than not to be needed, according to a Reuters interview. She said the timing is still being considered and signalled no need to move at the October 27-28 meeting. Her comments followed remarks from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Wednesday and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book.

In Japan, Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda said the bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates, citing upside risks to prices and accommodative financial conditions. She put the neutral rate considerably above 1%, with the policy rate at around 1.25%. In New Zealand, RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway said the late-October decision is completely open, though the cash rate is still more likely to rise.

Stocks

The selloff in technology hardware stocks deepened in Asia, as chipmakers tracked losses on Wall Street amid concern over further Fed rate increases and the financing of artificial intelligence investment. Japan’s Nikkei fell (more than 4%) ... the more I update the more it falls, down 5% now, led by SoftBank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron. South Korea’s Kospi extended its losses to near 8%. Kosdaq fell too, the 8% decline triggering a 20 minute halt.

Crypto

Bitcoin dropped briefly under USD81,000 with around US$485m in luquidations reported.

Company news

Barclays said a merger announcement between Tesla and SpaceX is possible before December, according to Bloomberg. Further detail from the note was not immediately available. Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue rose 45% from the previous quarter to $16.8 billion, according to an investor who attended a pre-IPO meeting, Reuters reported. Revenue was $4.7 billion in the first quarter and $11.6 billion in the second.

Still to come

TSMC is expected to report a 65% rise in third-quarter net profit to NT$746.3 billion, about US$23.4 billion, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate. Any result above NT$706.56 billion would be a record and the company’s 11th straight quarter of profit growth. Its earnings call is at 0600 GMT, which is 5:00pm in Sydney and Melbourne.

Gold slumps to near $4,100 as hotter US CPI increases Fed rate hike odds

The Australian dollar is showing signs of vulnerability against the US dollar and Japanese yen, with bearish inverted hammer candles emerging on both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. A potential swing high near 70c on AUD/USD adds to the downside risks ahead of Australia's employment report, particularly if unemployment rises faster than the RBA expects.

View related analysis:

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Gold Hints at Quiet Accumulation Despite Persistent US Dollar Strength
Swissy Attracts Safe-Haven Bets, AUD Shorts Surge to Record High | COT report

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY Face Bearish Reversal Risks Ahead of Australian Jobs Data
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
While we have time on our sides to see if that is indeed a large head and shoulders top in play on the weekly charts, AUD/USD is setting up for a potential swing high around 70c.

The daily chart shows a volatile inverted hammer formed on the daily chart, with a false break of its 20—day EMA and the 20-day capping the daily high as resistance. With a high-to-low range of 0.9%, it marked a 1-standard deviation range and its most volatile in eight. The face it still closed lower despite much of that range being earlier in the day plays to the advantage of bears, as it could realign momentum with the higher-timeframe head and shoulders pattern.

For now, perhaps we’re simply looking for a move down to 69c near its October low.

Source: ICE, TradingView

AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen
A similar setup may be emerging on AUD/JPY, though the daily chart doesn’t quite have the same bearish structure as AUD/USD. But the daily chart does also show an inverted hammer candle – with its most volatile daily range in seven.

The 200-day EMA is supporting for now, though a break of its also invalidates yesterday’s low for bears to assume bearish continuation.

A cluster of historical resistance levels including the 191 and 2024 highs make potential support levels over the near term, or intraday day targets for bears. But we need to see a clear break of the March and October low (108.78) before assuming bears have truly regained control. But if they do, the next major support level is the December VPOC near 106.52.

Source: ICE, TradingView

Australian Employment Report Could Pressure AUD/USD Bulls
Australia’s labour force report lands in a few hours. We know the RBA has retained a hawkish tone and that policymakers are concerned inflation may be more broad-based than simply high energy prices. This places CPI reports front and centre, though employment still matters to a degree.

Moreover, unemployment has been rising at a faster pace than the RBA’s own forecasts, so an unemployment rate of 4.7% or higher could cause further issues for Australian dollar bulls. And while job growth has been positive, part-time employment has been the main driver, while full-time employment has been slightly negative.

So the ideal scenario for AUD/USD bears is a rising unemployment rate alongside negative full-time job growth, with a contraction in headline employment being the cherry on top.

EUR/USD Outlook: MUFG Links Sub-1.10 Risk to Higher US Yields
Hotter US inflation has reinforced MUFG's downside scenario for the Euro against the US Dollar, despite its doubts about the scale of Fed tightening.
MUFG's warning that the Euro could fall below $1.10 has gained relevance after stronger-than-expected US inflation revived the case for higher interest rates.

The bank outlined that possibility before Wednesday's CPI release, linking it to its projections for US two-year Treasury yields and a potential rise in the Dollar Index to 105.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD traded near $1.1153, down 0.43% from Tuesday's close, having recovered some ground from the afternoon sell-off.

Derek Halpenny, MUFG's head of research for global markets EMEA and international securities, wrote ahead of the data: "Based on our 2-year UST bond yield projections, the DXY could certainly advance to the 105-level that would imply EUR/USD potentially falling below the 1.1000-level."

This is a conditional downside scenario, with no deadline attached to the exchange-rate level.

Image: EUR/USD intraday chart post US inflation release.

The inflation surprise MUFG had warned about
The September CPI release showed prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% on the month, against expectations of 0.2%, while annual headline inflation reached 3.7%.

Before the release, Halpenny wrote: "Near-term though the Fed look set to hike again and any upside surprise in today's data would likely trigger another rates sell-off and extend the dollar further stronger."

Selling Treasury bonds pushes their yields higher, and the two-year yield is particularly sensitive to the expected path of Fed interest rates.

Higher prospective returns on Dollar assets can then attract demand for the currency, providing the link between MUFG's yield projections and its EUR/USD warning.

The bank had set a demanding condition for a move in the opposite direction: "A consensus CPI print today is unlikely to alter rate expectations much and a meaningful miss to the downside (0.0% m/m core) would be required to see a notable dollar sell-off."

Wednesday's result went the other way, though it does not establish how far the subsequent repricing will run.

Halpenny had acknowledged a reason to tighten policy ahead of clearer evidence of wider inflation: "It's understandable that precautionary rate hikes will be seen as sensible given the risks of pass-through."

Why MUFG still questions a longer hiking cycle
Halpenny's pre-release policy view for December 2026 and beyond was explicit: "Still, we remain sceptical that inflation pressures will continue to build and while we expect the Fed to hike again in December, we do not expect the Fed to deliver the two further rate hikes currently priced by the markets."

"The inflation backdrop doesn't appear to be as bad as might have been expected when the conflict first started and if an assumption had been made that it would still be impacting energy supplies by the following October."

That position rested partly on the recent behaviour of core personal consumption expenditures inflation, a separate measure from CPI.

He wrote: "Taking the PCE measure of inflation, the annualised 3mth change fell in August to the Fed's 2.0% inflation target for the first time since July 2024."

The three-month annualised reading measures recent momentum, rather than the annual headline PCE change used in the Fed's longer-run inflation objective.

It also predates September's stronger CPI report.

Halpenny added: "There is little evidence of pass-through that likely reflects the fact that the non-AI economy in the US remains relatively weak."

That judgement now faces a more difficult test, with RBC's post-release warning about spreading price pressures, covered by Exchange Rates UK, highlighting the risk that higher transport and import costs are reaching a wider range of goods.

MUFG also questioned how restrictive policy would become if the anticipated hikes were delivered as inflation moderated.

Halpenny wrote: "If we project forward current market pricing for the Fed's policy rate by the middle of next year and use the consensus inflation forecast, the implied real fed funds rate reaches 2.60%, not far from the peak restrictiveness seen following the global inflation shock."

"We don't believe the Fed will need to raise rates to that level."

The calculation describes borrowing costs adjusted for expected inflation under market pricing, rather than MUFG's own forecast for the nominal policy rate.

A retreat in those expectations would weaken an important source of Dollar support, but prolonged energy disruption remains a risk to that outcome.

Halpenny warned: "Inflation risks ahead remains the dominant concern of central bankers given the extended period of elevated energy prices risks feeding more broadly into non-energy inflation."

EUR/USD exchange rate FAQs
Is EUR/USD below 1.10 MUFG's dated forecast?

No. It is a conditional downside scenario linked to the bank's US Treasury-yield projections and a possible Dollar Index rise to 105.

Why does stronger US inflation matter for the Euro?

It can increase expectations for Fed tightening, supporting US yields and demand for Dollar assets at the Euro's expense.

Does MUFG expect a prolonged Fed hiking cycle?

Before the CPI release, MUFG expected a December 2026 increase but doubted that the Fed would deliver the two further rises then priced by markets.

Well, today's markets certainly aren't following yesterday's script.

The dollar bulls have pushed through several important technical barriers, including resistance levels on the weekly chart that had previously kept buyers in check.

Meanwhile, gold is moving in the opposite direction, challenging the foundations of its recent bullish setup.

At first glance, the message seems straightforward: dollar bulls are gaining strength while gold bears are taking control.

But here's the interesting part.

The dollar is approaching an important resistance area on the monthly chart, while gold is testing a weekly support zone that could still play a crucial role in the next move.

Could the very moves that look so convincing today eventually set the stage for a reversal?

Let's take a closer look at the technical evidence.

U.S. Dollar (DX.F) - The bulls break through. But where could they stop?Well, so much for the bears defending their territory.

After yesterday's failure to sustain the breakout above the orange consolidation, dollar bulls have returned with a vengeance. And this time, they've brought some serious technical arguments to the table.

Let's start with the daily chart.

Buyers have pushed the dollar back above the upper boundary of the consolidation at 102.27 and recovered the area of yesterday's bearish gap at 102.33-102.37.

That's a meaningful development.

The breakout from the consolidation has strengthened the case for another upward move, with the minimum projected upside based on the formation's height pointing toward 102.87. And judging by today's price action, buyers aren't showing much hesitation.

But here's where things get considerably more interesting.

The weekly chart changes the perspective

Remember the important resistance area that stopped the bulls earlier?

It wasn't just another horizontal barrier.

The zone around 102.36-102.49 brought together several technical obstacles, including Fibonacci levels, while the upper boundary of the wedge added another important challenge on the weekly chart.

And today?

Buyers have pushed through the wedge's upper boundary and the combination of the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements.

That's not something we can simply ignore.

Breaking through several important resistance barriers in one advance considerably strengthens the bullish argument and raises the possibility of a continuation toward the next Fibonacci resistance combination on the weekly chart.

What about the negative divergences visible on our indicators? They're still there and they still deserve attention. However, divergences are warnings, not automatic reversal signals. Right now, buyers are demonstrating that they're willing to challenge those warnings.

Nevertheless, there's another important detail on the weekly chart.

The dollar has already completed a measured upward move comparable in size to an earlier advance.

Does that mean the rally is over? Not necessarily, but it gives us a reason to consider whether the recent acceleration could eventually be followed by a corrective move. And that brings us to an even more interesting discovery.

Could 102.87-102.96 Become the Next Turning Point?

Take a look at the monthly chart.

The dollar is approaching the upper boundary of a rising wedge, currently around 102.96.

Now compare that level with the minimum upside objective from the daily consolidation.

Daily projection: 102.87.

Monthly wedge resistance: 102.96.

Two different technical measurements, taken from different timeframes, point toward almost the same area.

That's an interesting combination and it raises a question worth asking:

What if another bullish push toward 102.87-102.96 eventually triggers a correction rather than an immediate continuation higher?

It's certainly a possibility we should keep in mind.

The dollar could complete its projected daily move, encounter resistance at the monthly wedge's upper boundary, and then retreat to verify previously broken resistance levels.

Such a development wouldn't automatically invalidate the broader bullish scenario. A successful retest could even provide the foundation for another advance, but a rejection followed by a sustained return below the broken resistance barriers would tell a considerably more cautious story.

On the other hand, if buyers successfully overcome the monthly wedge's upper boundary, the next combination of Fibonacci resistance levels on the weekly chart could become the next area of interest.

Daily Takeaway

•             Bullish development: the dollar has pushed above the daily consolidation, recovered yesterday's bearish gap, and overcome important weekly resistance barriers.

•             First upside objective: around 102.87, based on the height of the daily consolidation.

•             Key resistance to watch: 102.87-102.96, where the daily projection approaches the monthly rising wedge's upper boundary.

•             Potential warning: the weekly measured move has already been completed, while negative divergences remain visible.

•             What could change the picture: a rejection followed by a sustained return below the broken resistance barriers would weaken the bullish case. A successful breakout above the monthly wedge could favor further gains.

Bottom line: buyers have delivered an impressive technical breakthrough, and the bullish scenario has gained considerable strength. But the closer the dollar gets to 102.87-102.96, the more important the market's reaction to that area could become.

The bulls have the momentum. Whether they can maintain it is the next question.

Gold (GC.F) - The bullish setup is under fire. But there's a twist

Well, gold bulls probably aren't enjoying today's session and we can't really blame them.

Yesterday, we highlighted 4156 as the level that could change the technical picture.

Why?

Because a daily close below it would not only invalidate the earlier breakout above the red falling wedge but also confirm a breakdown below the orange consolidation at 4156-4233.

Today's decline has pushed gold below that critical boundary. In other words, the bears are challenging exactly the conditions we identified as essential to the bullish scenario and that's a development we need to take seriously.

What does the daily breakdown suggest?If sellers maintain their advantage and confirm the breakdown, the minimum projected move based on the height of the orange consolidation points toward 4080.

That's an important downside objective.

But getting there would have another consequence. Gold would move below last week's low at 4091, potentially creating a fresh low rather than the classic double-bottom formation we might otherwise expect.

And here's where the analysis becomes considerably more interesting.

The weekly chart tells another story

The weekly chart reveals an important bullish gap at 4098-4135.

This support area is now directly in the path of the developing decline, and it creates an intriguing technical situation.

What if the bears manage to push gold toward 4080, breaking below both the previous low at 4091 and the weekly gap's lower boundary at 4098? Would that automatically mean the bulls have lost the bigger battle? Not necessarily.

Sometimes the most important signal isn't the breakdown itself. It's what happens after it.

Let's imagine that sellers extend the decline, establish a fresh low, and then buyers step in aggressively enough to reclaim the weekly gap before Friday's close.

Under our weekly closing-confirmation approach, an intraweek move below 4098 would not, by itself, confirm a weekly breakdown of that support area.

And if gold were to finish the week back above 4135?

That would be particularly interesting.

Such price action could suggest that sellers failed to maintain control despite pushing the market below important support levels.

In other words, we could see a genuine bearish breakdown on the daily chart followed by an unsuccessful attempt to sustain that weakness on the weekly timeframe.

And that could provide the foundation for a corrective rebound.

But what if the bulls fail?There's an important alternative.

If gold finishes the week below 4098, the breakdown below the entire weekly support area would receive confirmation under our methodology.

That would strengthen the bearish interpretation and leave the market vulnerable to additional downside pressure. And even if buyers manage to reclaim the gap, it wouldn't automatically restore the earlier bullish scenario.

The broken daily consolidation and the falling wedge would still need to be considered.

Daily Takeaway

•             Bearish development: gold has fallen below 4156, challenging the recent bullish breakout and the orange consolidation.

•             Conditional downside objective: around 4080, based on the height of the 4156-4233 consolidation.

•             Critical weekly support: the bullish gap at 4098-4135, with the previous low at 4091 also in focus.

•             Potential bullish response: an intraweek breakdown followed by a recovery above the weekly gap, particularly a weekly close above 4135, could suggest a failed attempt to sustain the decline.

•             Bearish confirmation on the weekly chart: a weekly close below 4098 would strengthen the case for continued weakness.

Bottom line: today's decline has seriously challenged gold's bullish scenario. But the developing daily breakdown and the potential defense of weekly support are two different parts of the story.

The bears have made their move. Now let's see whether they can hold their ground.

And what about the rest of the metals market?Gold isn't the only precious metal facing an important technical test.

Silver has slipped below major technical boundaries, platinum and palladium are approaching critical downside levels, and copper buyers have once again failed to overcome a familiar resistance area.

Final thought - Beyond the first moveToday, dollar bulls and gold bears have both made impressive moves, but stronger price action doesn't automatically make the next move predictable.

The dollar is approaching an area where resistance could become increasingly important. Gold, meanwhile, is testing support that may help determine whether its recent breakdown develops into something bigger.

Neither outcome is guaranteed and that's precisely why looking beyond the immediate price move matters. The market tells us what is happening. The technical roadmap helps us understand what to watch next.

Stay objective, follow the evidence, and keep an open mind.

The dollar is approaching the upper boundary of a rising wedge, currently around 102.96.

Now compare that level with the minimum upside objective from the daily consolidation.

Daily projection: 102.87.

Monthly wedge resistance: 102.96.

Two different technical measurements, taken from different timeframes, point toward almost the same area.

That’s an interesting combination and it raises a question worth asking:

What if another bullish push toward 102.87-102.96 eventually triggers a correction rather than an immediate continuation higher?

It’s certainly a possibility we should keep in mind.

The dollar could complete its projected daily move, encounter resistance at the monthly wedge’s upper boundary, and then retreat to verify previously broken resistance levels.

Such a development wouldn’t automatically invalidate the broader bullish scenario. A successful retest could even provide the foundation for another advance, but a rejection followed by a sustained return below the broken resistance barriers would tell a considerably more cautious story.

On the other hand, if buyers successfully overcome the monthly wedge’s upper boundary, the next combination of Fibonacci resistance levels on the weekly chart could become the next area of interest.

Daily Takeaway

Bullish development: the dollar has pushed above the daily consolidation, recovered yesterday’s bearish gap, and overcome important weekly resistance barriers.
First upside objective: around 102.87, based on the height of the daily consolidation.
Key resistance to watch: 102.87-102.96, where the daily projection approaches the monthly rising wedge’s upper boundary.
Potential warning: the weekly measured move has already been completed, while negative divergences remain visible.
What could change the picture: a rejection followed by a sustained return below the broken resistance barriers would weaken the bullish case. A successful breakout above the monthly wedge could favor further gains.

Bottom line: buyers have delivered an impressive technical breakthrough, and the bullish scenario has gained considerable strength. But the closer the dollar gets to 102.87-102.96, the more important the market’s reaction to that area could become.

The bulls have the momentum. Whether they can maintain it is the next question.

Gold (GC.F) – The Bullish Setup Is Under Fire. But There’s a Twist.

Well, gold bulls probably aren’t enjoying today’s session and we can’t really blame them.

Yesterday, we highlighted 4156 as the level that could change the technical picture.

Why?

Because a daily close below it would not only invalidate the earlier breakout above the red falling wedge but also confirm a breakdown below the orange consolidation at 4156-4233.

Today’s decline has pushed gold below that critical boundary. In other words, the bears are challenging exactly the conditions we identified as essential to the bullish scenario and that’s a development we need to take seriously.

What Does the Daily Breakdown Suggest?
If sellers maintain their advantage and confirm the breakdown, the minimum projected move based on the height of the orange consolidation points toward 4080.

That’s an important downside objective.

But getting there would have another consequence. Gold would move below last week’s low at 4091, potentially creating a fresh low rather than the classic double-bottom formation we might otherwise expect.

And here’s where the analysis becomes considerably more interesting.

The Weekly Chart Tells Another Story

The weekly chart reveals an important bullish gap at 4098-4135.

This support area is now directly in the path of the developing decline, and it creates an intriguing technical situation.

What if the bears manage to push gold toward 4080, breaking below both the previous low at 4091 and the weekly gap’s lower boundary at 4098? Would that automatically mean the bulls have lost the bigger battle? Not necessarily.

Sometimes the most important signal isn’t the breakdown itself. It’s what happens after it.

Let’s imagine that sellers extend the decline, establish a fresh low, and then buyers step in aggressively enough to reclaim the weekly gap before Friday’s close.

Under our weekly closing-confirmation approach, an intraweek move below 4098 would not, by itself, confirm a weekly breakdown of that support area.

And if gold were to finish the week back above 4135?

That would be particularly interesting.

Such price action could suggest that sellers failed to maintain control despite pushing the market below important support levels.

In other words, we could see a genuine bearish breakdown on the daily chart followed by an unsuccessful attempt to sustain that weakness on the weekly timeframe.

And that could provide the foundation for a corrective rebound.

But What If the Bulls Fail?
There’s an important alternative.

If gold finishes the week below 4098, the breakdown below the entire weekly support area would receive confirmation under our methodology.

That would strengthen the bearish interpretation and leave the market vulnerable to additional downside pressure. And even if buyers manage to reclaim the gap, it wouldn’t automatically restore the earlier bullish scenario.

The broken daily consolidation and the falling wedge would still need to be considered.

Daily Takeaway

Bearish development: gold has fallen below 4156, challenging the recent bullish breakout and the orange consolidation.
Conditional downside objective: around 4080, based on the height of the 4156-4233 consolidation.
Critical weekly support: the bullish gap at 4098-4135, with the previous low at 4091 also in focus.
Potential bullish response: an intraweek breakdown followed by a recovery above the weekly gap, particularly a weekly close above 4135, could suggest a failed attempt to sustain the decline.
Bearish confirmation on the weekly chart: a weekly close below 4098 would strengthen the case for continued weakness.

Bottom line: today’s decline has seriously challenged gold’s bullish scenario. But the developing daily breakdown and the potential defense of weekly support are two different parts of the story.

The bears have made their move. Now let’s see whether they can hold their ground.

Gold isn’t the only precious metal facing an important technical test.

Silver has slipped below major technical boundaries, platinum and palladium are approaching critical downside levels, and copper buyers have once again failed to overcome a familiar resistance area.

Final Thought – Beyond the First Move
Today, dollar bulls and gold bears have both made impressive moves, but stronger price action doesn’t automatically make the next move predictable.

The dollar is approaching an area where resistance could become increasingly important. Gold, meanwhile, is testing support that may help determine whether its recent breakdown develops into something bigger.

Neither outcome is guaranteed and that’s precisely why looking beyond the immediate price move matters. The market tells us what is happening. The technical roadmap helps us understand what to watch next.

Anna

Recent sessions have been particularly challenging for silver prices in the short term. Selling pressure has intensified considerably, resulting in three consecutive losing sessions and pushing the metal to a decline of nearly 8.5% over this period. This move has taken silver back to its lowest levels of the year and reflects a loss of market appeal that has become increasingly evident in recent trading activity.

Part of this weakness can be attributed to the performance of the U.S. dollar and the bond market following the release of U.S. inflation data. Expectations of higher interest rates have increased the attractiveness of alternative markets that compete with precious metals for investor capital, reducing the room for a meaningful recovery in silver prices. As long as this environment remains in place, the bearish bias around XAG/USD could continue to dominate market activity in the sessions ahead.

Are Inflation Numbers Reinforcing Silver's Weakness?
The latest U.S. inflation figures were released during today's session. Annual CPI came in at 3.7%, above the market expectation of 3.6%, while Core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, also exceeding forecasts of 2.5%.

The importance of these figures lies in the fact that inflation continues to show difficulty moving lower and remains well above the 2.0% target established by the Federal Reserve. As a result, expectations have strengthened that the central bank could maintain a more aggressive stance in the coming months.

This situation is particularly important for silver because both the bond market and the U.S. dollar tend to benefit in environments where interest-rate expectations move higher. Since silver does not generate a direct yield, it often becomes less attractive when competing assets perceived as relatively stable begin offering higher returns.

The impact of this dynamic has been clearly reflected across financial markets. On one hand, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields continue to trade near the 5.2% area, historically elevated levels that remain attractive to investors. At the same time, the DXY, which measures the U.S. dollar against its major counterparts, continues to hold above the 102-point mark, reflecting sustained demand for the greenback even after the inflation release.

Silver has moved in the opposite direction. While both Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar continue to display strength, the precious metal has remained under pressure, suggesting that these competing markets continue to absorb some of the demand that would otherwise flow toward silver.

Source: TradingEconomics

Taking all of this into account, expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve have increased the opportunity cost of holding precious metals relative to assets that generate yield. This dynamic became particularly evident following the inflation release and could continue limiting silver's ability to recover in the short term. As long as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to benefit from expectations of higher interest rates, the selling pressure surrounding XAG/USD could remain an important feature of market activity.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio
Another important factor within the precious metals market is the evolution of the gold-to-silver ratio, which has climbed toward the 73 area after reaching lows near 64 at the end of September.

This implies that a growing number of ounces of silver are required to purchase one ounce of gold and reflects the weaker relative performance of silver compared with gold over recent weeks.

Source: Bullionbypost

The steady increase in this ratio suggests that investors are favoring gold over silver within the precious-metals space. Recent market reactions to macroeconomic developments show that silver remains more sensitive to expectations surrounding monetary policy and broader financial market conditions.

Not even silver's industrial component has been enough to stabilize demand in recent sessions. Instead, the market appears to be placing greater emphasis on gold as the primary safe-haven metal. This indicates that silver is not only losing attractiveness against alternative markets such as the U.S. dollar and bonds, but also against a closely related asset like gold.

As long as the ratio continues to advance and silver's relative weakness against gold remains evident, this situation could continue to reflect fading confidence in the metal and support ongoing selling pressure around XAG/USD in the sessions ahead.

Silver Technical Forecast

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

The major bearish trendline regains relevance: Since the early months of 2026, silver has been developing within a broader bearish structure that has led to the formation of a significant long-term downtrend. The recent acceleration in selling pressure has returned focus to this trendline and, as long as key support levels continue to break lower, the broader bearish structure could once again become the dominant technical pattern to monitor over the coming weeks.

 
MACD: The MACD histogram continues to trade below the 0 neutral line, reflecting that short-term moving-average momentum remains tilted in favor of sellers. As long as this reading remains intact, bearish pressure could continue to dominate market movements.

 
RSI: The RSI is showing a similar picture, remaining below the 50 neutral level. However, the indicator is also approaching the 30 oversold zone, a development that could signal excessive recent selling pressure and create room for short-term bullish corrections.

 
Key Levels to Watch:

$62 – Critical Resistance: This level aligns with the long-term bearish trendline and the 50-period simple moving average. Price action that manages to develop consistently above this reference could begin to challenge the dominant bearish structure and open the door to a more neutral trading environment.

 
$58 – Near-Term Barrier: An important retracement area observed over recent weeks that could become the primary level to monitor in the event of short-term bullish corrections.

 
$55 – Critical Support: This level coincides with the lows of the year and remains the most important downside barrier on the daily chart. Sustained moves below this area could reinforce the dominance of the bearish bias and support a further extension of the current downtrend in the weeks ahead.

 
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

Gold bulls had an open door to force a push as we came into today, but their prospects aren't looking as good after this morning's CPI print.

Silver (XAG/USD) tumbles over 5.5% on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected US inflation data fuel expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, sending the US Dollar (USD) to a fresh year-to-date high. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $55.78, its lowest level since July.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed headline inflation rose to 3.7% YoY in September from 3.4% in August, beating expectations of 3.6%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased to 2.6% from 2.4%, above the 2.5% forecast. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.6%, as expected, while core CPI increased 0.3%, slightly above the 0.2% forecast.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now price in a 43% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting, up from 22% before the release, while the probability of a December rate hike stands near 95%.

Higher borrowing costs make interest-bearing assets more attractive, reducing demand for Silver, which generates no income. A stronger US Dollar adds to the pressure by making the metal more expensive for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, the technical picture suggests sellers remain firmly in control.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAG/USD trades well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), clustered between roughly $63 and $72. The latest leg lower brings Silver back toward July’s lows, which also mark its year-to-date lows.

Momentum indicators remain bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 30 approaches oversold territory, suggesting the decline is becoming stretched, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, reinforcing persistent bearish momentum despite the lack of strong trend strength suggested by the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 21.

On the topside, initial resistance lies at the $60 psychological mark, followed by the 100-day SMA at $63 and the 50-day SMA at $64. This moving-average cluster forms a firm resistance zone ahead of $68 and the 200-day SMA at $72.

On the downside, a sustained break below July’s lows in the $55.00-$55 area could open the door to a deeper decline toward $50. Holding this support zone could encourage a corrective bounce from oversold levels rather than a decisive trend reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

High oil prices, rising inflation readings, and therefore hawkish central banks… All these factors have badly impacted the precious metals markets. But investors cannot see the big picture the US economy is facing. The surging debt and the rising money supply are the real upside factors for both gold and silver.

US national debt

Source: US Debt Clock.org

As I have written in my previous publications, US national debt has recently surpassed the $40 trillion mark. The debt-to-GDP ratio has been substantially above the critical 100% mark for a while, which makes it very expensive to service thanks to the higher rates for longer. It is now around 123%, substantially above the 52.31% reported in 1960, 34.68% reported in 1980, or even the 55.85% in 2000.

Rising national debt is the direct result of many years of budget deficits recorded in the US. High debt obviously leads to more money printing by the Fed to service that debt.

Money supplyThat is why over the past ten years, the US M2 money supply has increased by $10 trillion to reach $23.34 trillion. Particularly dramatic was the 2020 pandemic surge, which happened during the unprecedented quantitative easing (QE) program taken by the Fed to get the paralyzed economy going. Every time the Fed launches its QE program, the money supply rises.

Source: TradingView

How much should precious metals cost?According to the US Debt Clock.org website, given the amount of liquidity there is in the US economy, silver should cost $1,515 per ounce, while gold should cost no less than $11,969 per ounce. The dollar-to-silver and the dollar-to-gold ratios are the following:

Source: US Debt Clock.org

In other words, for every ounce of gold there are 11,969 US dollars, while for every ounce of silver there are 1,515 US dollars.

Also, as can be seen from the excerpt above, it is highly risky to hold precious metals in paper form: the paper-to-silver ratio is a whopping 406. This suggests that for every ounce of physical silver, there are 406 ounces of paper silver. As for gold, there are 153 ounces of paper gold for every physical ounce of the yellow metal.

But it does not mean that gold and silver prices rise merely to cover for inflation.

Below is a diagram showing the median house prices in the US.

Median house price in the US history

Source: The Federal Reserve

Right now, the median house price in the US is lingering near the $400,000 mark. Let us divide that number by the current silver price of $60 per ounce. We will get 6667 silver ounces that can be used to buy a house.

Historical silver prices

Source: Macrotrends

In 1980, the average house price was $64,000; in 2000, it was $170,000, while in 2011 it was $200,000. In 1980, silver cost $32 per ounce; in 2000 it was worth $5 per ounce, while in 2011 it was $40.

So, in 1980, you could have bought a house with just 2,000 ounces of gold; in 2000, the price was a whopping 40,000 silver ounces, while in 2011 it was 5,000. So, silver does not appreciate with inflation. It is a volatile precious metal, and it does not move in the same direction as house prices.  

House prices can also be measured in gold ounces.

Gold prices history

Source: Macrotrends

In 1980, gold cost $500 per ounce; in 2000, $270; in 2011, $1,700. Let us divide the average house prices by the per-ounce gold prices recorded in each of these years. In 1980, it was possible to buy a house with just 128 ounces; in 2000, 630, while in 2011 it was possible with just 118. Again, gold prices surge and fall, not in accordance with inflation or other asset prices.

Conclusion The US debt and the money supply are surging fast, thus making precious metals seem even more attractive to investors than they used to be in the past. Given the M2 money supply, silver price should be $1,515 per ounce, while gold should cost no less than $11,969 per ounce. But it is important to know that gold and silver prices do not only move in accordance with inflation, and silver is much more volatile than gold.

XAU/USD Forecast: Goldman's $5,235 Outlook Faces Fresh Inflation Test Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to recover over twelve months, but stronger US inflation puts renewed pressure on its case for limited Fed tightening. Goldman Sachs's forecast for gold to reach $5,235 an ounce in twelve months faces a more difficult near-term rates outlook after US underlying inflation proved stronger than expected on Wednesday.

Spot bullion traded near $4,090 an ounce, down around 1.6% against its previous close, leaving the bank's projection roughly 28% above the latest price.

Image: Gold price vs USD reaction to US inflation release on Wednesday. Goldman's optimism rests heavily on central-bank purchases, while its strategists acknowledge that tighter monetary policy can discourage investment demand well before those longer-term buyers lift prices.

The bank had already lowered its end-2026 gold target to $4,650 an ounce, explaining that "a more hawkish Fed might weigh on ETF demand in the near term."

Inflation leaves gold competing with interest income The September US inflation release showed core prices rising 0.3% on the month, above Goldman's pre-release estimate of 0.24%.

Higher expected interest rates raise the income investors give up by holding gold, which pays none.

Goldman's strategists had identified that pressure before Wednesday's figures: "Commodities remain volatile given Middle East tensions, while more hawkish central banks and rising real rates have also weighed on Gold."

The latest pressure followed a respite earlier in the year, when energy prices and market inflation expectations fell together.

Goldman writes: "Market-based inflation momentum fell sharply in Q2, ahead of the macro data, as energy prices and breakeven inflation declined, unlocking rate relief and supporting risky assets."

"Since Q3, however, it has risen again amid higher energy prices and ongoing Middle East tensions."

Its economists still expect that renewed inflation pressure to fade.

"The global bond sell-off accelerated owing to sticky inflation and Middle East tensions combined with resilient growth, fiscal concerns, hawkish central banks and intensifying capital competition from the AI capex boom."

"The rise has been led by front-end and real yields, leaving market pricing considerably more hawkish than our economists' baseline, which assumes limited core inflationary pressures will constrain central bank tightening."

"Given our baseline of normalising inflation, peaking energy prices and more dovish central banks, 10-year bonds should gradually move from headwind to hedge in portfolios."

Wednesday's core reading complicates that argument because the rise cannot be attributed entirely to food and energy.

It does not establish a new twelve-month inflation trend, but it supplies less reassurance for a quick retreat in rate expectations.

Goldman also identifies a route to lower yields through weaker growth rather than an immediate improvement in inflation.

Its strategists write: "The clearest route to a near-term peak in global yields would be tighter financial conditions weakening growth sentiment; recent pressure in corporate and sovereign credit suggests the sell-off may already be approaching a speed limit."

Reserve buying supports the longer view Goldman describes continued central-bank diversification as "the main structural driver of their constructive gold view", distinguishing reserve managers' purchases from the exchange-traded fund demand most exposed to changes in the Fed outlook.

The split between longer-term buyers and rate-sensitive investors also featured in Exchange Rates UK's coverage of BofA's uneven gold recovery outlook.

Goldman's analysis gives European investors another reason to hold bullion, beyond anticipating lower US interest rates.

"We also see more value in Gold for European investors that try to reduce EUR exposure and hedge further increases in EU sovereign risk premia."

Gold can therefore attract demand as protection against European fiscal instability while still suffering from higher US borrowing costs.

Goldman's caution on the timing of rate relief is explicit: "Although front-end rates are increasingly skewed to the downside, energy-price volatility and monetary policy uncertainty remain elevated."

Gold prices FAQ What is Goldman Sachs's twelve-month gold forecast?

Goldman forecasts $5,235 per troy ounce in twelve months, roughly 28% above the Wednesday price used in this article.

Has Goldman become more cautious about gold?

Its end-2026 target was reduced to $4,650, reflecting the risk that a more hawkish Fed restrains ETF demand.

Why does Goldman still expect a gold recovery?

It identifies central-bank diversification as the main structural support, alongside a broader expectation that inflation and rate pressure will ease.

Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back below 1.1150 as traders focused on U.S. inflation data. GBP/USD tested new lows as traders bet on hawkish Fed. USD/CAD gained ground amid sell-off in precious metals markets.

U.S. Dollar Tests Yearly Highs After Inflation Data

DXY 141026 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index rallied as traders focused on inflation data. Inflation Rate increased from 3.4% in August to 3.7% in September, compared to analyst forecast of 3.6%. Core Inflation Rate grew from 2.4% to 2.6%, compared to analyst consensus of 2.5%. The reports indicated that high energy prices have started to push prices of other goods and services higher.

FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting has increased to 37.1%. Interestingly, traders believe that Fed will keep rates unchanged in October despite rising inflation.

Treasury yields gained ground as bond traders sold bonds after the release of inflation data. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved towards the 4.85% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 5.24%. Rising yields provided additional support to the American currency.

U.S. Dollar index climbed above the resistance at 102.35 – 102.50 and is trying to settle above the 102.80 level. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the resistance at 103.15 – 103.30.

EUR/USD Is Under Strong Pressure

EUR/USD 141026 4h Chart EUR/USD tested new lows as traders focused on inflation data from the U.S. In the EU, traders had a chance to take a look at the Wholesale Prices report from Germany. The report showed that Wholesale Prices increased by +1.9% month-over-month in September, compared to analyst consensus of +0.7%.

EUR/USD pulled back below the support level at 1.1175 – 1.1190 and is trying to settle below the 1.1120 level. If EUR/USD manages to settle below 1.1120, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1075 – 1.1090 range.

GBP/USD Tests Support At 1.3150 – 1.3165

GBP/USD 141026 4h Chart GBP/USD is under pressure as traders focus on Fed policy outlook. While the market does not expect that Fed will raise rates in October, traders prepare for rate hikes in December and January.

GBP/USD attempts to settle below the support level at 1.3150 – 1.3165. If GBP/USD manages to settle below the 1.3150 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3030 – 1.3050. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

Every new EUR/USD analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all EUR/USD forecasts

USD/CAD Tests New Highs

USD/CAD 141026 4h Chart USD/CAD gained ground as traders reacted to the sell-off in precious metals markets. Gold is down by -1.9%, while silver pulled back by -6%. Other commodity-related currencies are also losing ground in today’s trading session.

If USD/CAD stays above the resistance at 1.4235 – 1.4250, it will head towards the 1.4300 level. A move above 1.4300 will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.4350 – 1.4365.

USD/JPY Gains Ground Amid Rising Treasury Yields

USD/JPY 141026 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. However, traders are not ready for big moves amid fears about potential interventions from the Bank of Japan.

In case USD/JPY climbs above the 159.00 level, it will head towards the psychologically important 160.00 level. In this scenario, intervention risks will increase, although it remains to be seen whether BoJ would be ready to provide support to the yen.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

Latest news and analysis

The trading week continues to unfold and weakness around the euro has once again become increasingly evident in the short term. This can be seen in the recent performance of EUR/USD, which has declined roughly 0.3% over the last three trading sessions, highlighting renewed strength in the U.S. dollar.

Gold faces selling pressure after U.S. inflation accelerated, putting its $4,000–$4,200 demand zone in focus as rising Treasury yields challenge buyers.

For two weeks running, gold has been unable to break out of the $4,050–4,200 per ounce trading range and is falling for the third day in a row ahead of the release of key US inflation data for September. High oil prices, Treasury bond yields and a strong dollar are putting pressure on the precious metal. At the same time, strong investment demand and central bank purchases of bullion are preventing it from collapsing. 

According to Invesco, capital outflows from gold-focused ETFs in the first half of the year were replaced by inflows in the third quarter. Meanwhile, holdings in specialised exchange-traded funds rose to 12-month highs, and September was the strongest month since 2022. In the company’s view, this trend will support the price in the long term.

Conversely, Bank of America believes that capital flows into ETFs track prices. Therefore, a price decline will reduce holdings, further driving the sell-off. The bank forecasts a decline in the average price per ounce to $4,000 in the fourth quarter.

This is partly due to central banks’ waning interest in purchasing bullion. Kazakhstan provides a telling example. Gold accounted for 78% of its gold and foreign exchange reserves, but the central bank plans to reduce this to 75% by the end of the year, focusing instead on purchases of US dollar-denominated Treasuries amid rising yields.

Consequently, support for gold is becoming increasingly fragile. That said, the pressure on gold is also gradually easing. Markets are starting to realise that they had expected too much when forecasting three Fed rate rises over the next 12 months. John Williams, President of the highly influential Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said that rates may not rise in 2027. If so, Treasury bond yields risk falling, dragging the US dollar down with them.

The release of US inflation data and Kevin Warsh’s speech in Bangkok will serve as a litmus test for gold. Against the backdrop of accelerating CPI, hawkish rhetoric from the Fed Chair could push prices below $4,000. Conversely, if Williams maintains his dovish stance, it could provide a springboard for a rally above $4,200 per ounce.

  GBPUSD fell toward 1.3180 as market support remains at 1.3140-60. As long as the market holds above the support zone of 1.3140-60, a rebound towards the 1.3350-1.3400 zone is likely.

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The EUR/USD forecast hinges on U.S. CPI after five straight weekly losses, with hawkish Fed bets and a fully priced ECB rate hike weighing on the euro.

Fawad Razaqzada, StoneX Media Market Analyst, explains how the five-week downtrend, U.S. inflation data and crude oil prices shape the euro and U.S. dollar outlook.

With CPI expectations well defined, a meaningful surprise is needed to trigger a strong dollar move. Crude oil prices and bond yields remain key dollar drivers as Middle East military activity remains high, while French government finances weigh on the single currency.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Gold's Longer-Term Buyers and Short-Term Traders Are Pulling Apart BofA's gold price forecast allows for a weaker finish to 2026 before a 2027 recovery, while HSBC's demand case faces competition from yields and the Dollar. Bank of America expects gold's recovery to lose some momentum later in 2027, with $5,000 an ounce marking the strongest part of its quarterly forecasts.

Its projections put bullion at $4,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $5,000 in the second and third quarters of 2027, before a 10% retreat in the final quarter.

At the time of writing, spot gold traded near $4,166 an ounce, down 0.12% on Tuesday, after losing 6.64% during September.

HSBC sees demand support despite higher yields HSBC Asset Management retains a positive bias towards gold over an investment horizon exceeding 12 months.

Its October assessment says: "The gold price has been resilient, supported by central-bank demand, investment inflows, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Momentum remains constructive despite intermittent volatility and shifting rate expectations. Geopolitical risks and reserve diversification should support prices, but elevated yields and a stronger US dollar remain risks".

Gold pays no interest, so higher bond returns raise the income investors forgo by holding it.

The US Treasury's 10-year yield stood at 5.24% on 9 October, illustrating the competition bullion still faces.

Goldman's trading desk noted on 9 October: "Even with US real rates at multi-decade highs, gold has held above $4,100/oz, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against geopolitical risk and rising fiscal strain."

HSBC also expects the US currency to remain supported initially: "Near-term, the dollar is expected to be supported by the resilient US economy, Fed tightening, favourable rate differentials, and heightened geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand. On longer-term valuation measures, the dollar still looks expensive. Structural diversification away from the dollar remains a long-term theme".

A dearer Dollar makes bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies, even when they want protection from geopolitical or fiscal risks.

Image: Gold price in USD 48-hour chart. Goldman's desk sees room for investors to rebuild exposure Goldman Sachs's desk also sees potential for renewed buying: investors following systematic strategies have already cut their exposure sharply.

Its latest US Equities Weekly Rundown says: "Gold showed resilience, rising 1.3% WoW as the FOMC rate-path outlook looks more stable and the UST market found modest relief following the 10-year and 30-year auctions. Despite a challenging macro backdrop, sustained central-bank buying and persistent ETF inflows continued to underpin prices".

Gold has weakened since the report's 9 October cutoff.

The World Gold Council's September review shows how uneven investor demand has been: "Yet September was unusual: despite the price decline, global gold ETFs recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions."

Futures selling can outweigh those purchases over shorter periods, the divergence examined in our recent UBS gold outlook.

Goldman's desk writes: "Investor positioning has reset meaningfully: systematic strategies are very short, at the 0th percentile on a 1yr lookback per GS' models, while CFTC managed-money net length has normalized to average levels".

The distinction between deeply bearish systematic strategies and average managed-money exposure leaves room for some investors to return without assuming the whole market is underinvested.

Price gains could prompt bearish traders to buy back positions.

Goldman's desk makes that prospect conditional: "This should create a favorable setup if recent momentum persists."

Gold price predictions FAQ What is Bank of America's gold forecast?

BofA projects $4,000 an ounce for Q4 2026 and $5,000 for Q2 and Q3 2027, followed by a 10% decline in its Q4 projection.

Why does HSBC remain positive on gold?

HSBC cites central-bank demand, investment inflows, geopolitical risks and reserve diversification, while warning that high yields and a stronger Dollar can weigh on prices.

What does Goldman's gold positioning analysis show?

Its desk says systematic strategies are at the bottom of their one-year positioning range. A sustained price rebound could encourage renewed buying.

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A hot core does the opposite and it does it fast. December is already at 90% and an upside surprise closes the last exit. Sellers get a clean shot below the midpoint with nobody arguing the other side.

PPI and retail sales follow Thursday. One number does not turn the rate story. A soft CPI followed by firm producer prices and strong spending takes the gift right back. Gold needs softness across more than one print this week before the rate trade starts to loosen.

Nobody Is Trading October
New York Fed President John Williams still sees the possibility of one more rate increase this year. Governor Christopher Waller said higher Treasury yields are reflecting stronger growth, not unanchored inflation expectations. October is a free pass. December is not.

CME FedWatch has October at 22% and December near 90%. Nobody is trading the next meeting. December is the one that matters and CPI sets the odds.

The dollar index was near 102.16 Wednesday after sliding 0.35% Tuesday. That is helping gold hold its range. It does not change the larger problem. It is not a real dollar move. The market is standing down ahead of CPI and a hot print brings dollar buyers right back.

Beige Book and Fed speakers are background until the data hits. CPI changes the rate probabilities. Nothing else on the calendar does.

Oil Bid Is Not Helping the Rate Case
Oil moved higher after Saudi Arabia said an administrative building belonging to Saudi Aramco in Dhahran was attacked. That puts supply risk back in the energy market and keeps the inflation argument alive.

Gold holding while oil rises tells you something. Sellers should be pressing this market lower on the rate story. They are not getting it done. Oil is getting in the way. But that is not a reason to go long either. Gold traders already know what rising crude does to the rate case.

Gold is holding here. It has not earned a rally.

What to Watch
Three reports in 48 hours and none of them are priced yet. CPI is the one that resets the December odds. PPI and retail sales either confirm that reaction or take it apart. The Aramco bid in oil is keeping inflation pressure alive when gold needs it to go away. The dollar backing off is the only thing preventing sellers from pressing the break. Take the dollar away with a hot CPI print and gold loses its last excuse to hold this range.

The bias stays down with the downtrend on the daily swing chart and the main top compressing closer to the market. The $4,141.97 midpoint is the line. Gold has held it for three sessions but holding is not building a base. A break through $4,217.40 changes the trend and could force short-covering. Under the midpoint, $4,066.54 is where sellers are aiming.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

USDCAD has been one of the cleaner charts for me lately. The pair has pushed back to its 2026 highs, and that move tells me something important.

The recovery from the August 26 low that I've been tracking for a few weeks now looks impulsive rather than corrective. Impulses are five-wave patterns, and when I count this rise, I still can't see all five waves. That suggests the move isn't complete yet.

The pair is trading around 1.4211, right at the 1.4200-1.4125 support zone. If the current dip is just a retracement within the uptrend, this is where I'd expect buyers to step back in for a potential new rebound.

The key level for me is 1.4000. As long as USDCAD stays above it, I think the structure favors another leg higher once the pullback is complete. A drop below 1.4000 would make me rethink the count.

I know pullbacks can feel uncomfortable when you're expecting higher prices, but they are a normal part of a developing impulse. Markets rarely move in a straight line, and these pauses often give the trend the energy it needs for the next push.

Also keep in mind that US CPI is out today, October 14, at 14:30 CEST. The release could easily push the pair through the support zone or bounce it straight off it, so I'd expect volatility either way.

What I like about this setup is that it gives me clear reference points. The support zone tells me where a pullback could end, and the 1.4000 level tells me when I would be wrong. For me, that kind of clarity is often more valuable than trying to predict every small swing.

Key levels:

Current price: ~1.4211.Pullback support zone: 1.4200-1.4125.Key bullish level: 1.4000.Get Full Access To Our Premium Elliott Wave Analysis For 14 Days. Click here.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.56 per troy ounce, down 1.06% from the $59.18 it cost on Tuesday.

Silver prices have decreased by 17.62% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 70.78 on Wednesday, up from 70.31 on Tuesday.

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

EUR/USD rises from 17-month low but French fiscal and political concerns linger
The euro/U.S. dollar is recovering from a fresh 17-month low near 1.1150 and hovers just above 1.12 at the time of writing, although the broader bearish structure remains.

French fiscal and political concerns could continue to weigh on the euro. President Emmanuel Macron's government is anxious to pass a budget before the end of the year as it seeks to reassure markets that France can bring down its debt mountain. However, in political jostling ahead of next year's presidential election, opposition parties oppose the government's proposals.

The 10-year yield has risen as high as 4.5% in recent days, but the finance minister insists that France has not yet caught an adverse snowball effect. However, surging costs could spiral into a full-blown debt crisis if action isn't taken soon.

Budget talks have started, and the Socialist motion against the budget was denied after failing to pass an initial hurdle. However, France may need to experience more market pressure before significant progress is made.

The ECB is expected to hike rates once more before the end of the year. The Belgian central bank governor has joined the chorus of policymakers saying that the ECB will probably have to hike rates again. His comments come as inflation data is due later this week and is set to approach 4%, well above the ECB's 2% target.

Growth has been surprisingly resilient, given the energy price spike triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that an escalation in the war remains a key risk, and surging bond yields will weigh on activity more than previously expected. Lagarde also noted that elevated euro area inflation, driven by higher prices, is yet to feed into the broader economy.

Should French debt suffer heavier losses, the ECB may be forced to abandon rate hikes, which could see the euro come under more pressure.

The U.S. dollar is trading cautiously just below 18-month highs ahead of U.S. CPI data. Stronger-than-expected data could raise Fed rate hike expectations and lift the U.S. dollar, creating a headwind for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD forecast – technical analysis

The euro/U.S. dollar has extended its move southwards, falling to a fresh 18-month low of 1.1155 before recovering to 1.12 at the time of writing. This has helped bring the RSI out of oversold territory.

Sellers will look to break below 1.1155 to extend the move southwards towards 1.11 and 1.10, the psychological level.

Any recovery first needs to rise above 1.12. Above here, attention turns to 1.13, the 20 EMA, before the 1.1350 resistance zone and the 50 EMA at 1.1410 come into focus.

USD/JPY looks to US CPI data
USD/JPY is struggling to extend yesterday's bounce, with few signs of meaningful traction on Wednesday amid mixed fundamental cues.

The U.S. dollar is broadly flat as investors look cautiously ahead to the release of U.S. inflation data.

U.S. CPI is expected to show that inflation rose by 0.6% month on month in September, up from 0.4% in August. However, core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as food and fuel, is expected to ease to 0.2%, down from 0.3%. Inflation data will be followed by PPI figures on Thursday and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday, where he may provide more clues on the policy outlook.

The market is currently pricing in a 20% probability of a rate hike in October, but still an 85% probability of a hike before the end of the year. New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed would likely need to hike rates before the end of the year. However, he added that he did not see any rate hikes in 2027.

Hotter-than-expected inflation could see the market reprice Fed rate hike expectations higher, boosting U.S. yields and the dollar.

Meanwhile, reports that Bank of Japan officials are leaning against a rare back-to-back interest rate hike are undermining the Japanese yen and acting as a tailwind for the pair.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said policymakers would continue to closely monitor bond yields, reiterating that long-term interest rates should be determined by market forces.

The yen is also under pressure amid rising oil prices as hostilities in the Middle East escalate, raising concerns over supply disruption.

USD/JPY forecast – technical analysis

USD/JPY has extended its recovery from the 152.90 low to a peak of 158.75. The price trades above its rising trend line and the 250 EMA, while the RSI is also above 50, keeping buyers hopeful of further upside.

Buyers will look to rise above 159, the September 24 swing high, before attention turns to the 160 resistance zone.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50 EMA at 158.10 and the 200 EMA at 157.70. Below here, attention turns to 157.25 horizontal support, below which sellers could gain traction towards 155.