Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold – Chart On the 4-hour chart, gold is currently trading around $4,439, down from the $4,630 – $4,700 zone. As expected, gold has broken the 23.6% Fib level at $4,452, and is still below the 50-EMA at $4,554 and the 100-EMA at $4,539, therefore confirming a bearish short-term structure. Thankfully, the latest gold candles are closing above the $4,396 support area and are aligning with a region of previous fair-value gap zone and an upward trend line.

The RSI at 32 shows that there is an oversold condition and an increasing probability for a corrective rally. Immediate resistance is at $4,452 and beyond that is $4,487, $4,515, $4,543 and $4,570. Support remains at $4,396 with even stronger support at $4,341.

Being below $4,452 – $4,487 keeps the outlook for gold bullish, but the oversold RSI makes $4,396 even more important. A break below $4,396 would open $4,341.

Silver break below 6585 hit my 1st downside target of 6565/6560. We made a low for the day 5 ticks below.

Silver shot higher to first resistance at 6710/6730 & we made a high for the day just 13 ticks above here.

Holding below 6645/6630 risks a slide to 600/6590 before a retest of 6565/6560.

Further losses meet an excellent buying opportunity at 6490/6460.

This could mark a low for this downside correction but longs need stops below  6410.

Holding above 6650 allows a recovery to 6685/90 & 6720/6730.

Further gains meet resistance at 676755/6775.

Shorts need stops above 6800.

A break above can target 6830/6835 & 6870.

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 535.00 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 536.89 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,240.13 per tola from SAR 6,262.14 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

535.00

10 Grams

5,349.99

Tola

6,240.13

Troy Ounce

16,640.32

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 39,555.91 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,696.31 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to PKR 461,380.20 per tola from PKR 463,010.00 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

39,555.91

10 Grams

395,565.80

Tola

461,380.20

Troy Ounce

1,230,336.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 574.92 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 577.13 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,705.82 per tola from MYR 6,731.49 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

574.92

10 Grams

5,749.26

Tola

6,705.82

Troy Ounce

17,881.98

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from sub-$4,400 levels, or a one-and-a-half-week low, and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's comments last Friday lifted market bets for an imminent interest rate hike, which, in turn, is seen as undermining the non-yielding yellow metal.

Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish debut speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and signaled that the central bank may consider raising interest rates if inflation does not slow down significantly. Adding to this, rising energy prices due to escalating US-Iran tensions have revived fears of persistent inflation and increased bets on a potential interest rate hike. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in around a 65% chance that the Fed will raise borrowing costs at the upcoming policy meeting on September 15-16. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, helps the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) regain positive traction following Monday's slide and further weighs on the Gold price.

In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East conflict, US forces struck two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. This was the first US strike since late July, prompting an Iranian counterattack on American air bases in Jordan. Iran also said on Monday ​it had attacked the United Arab ‌Emirates' Al Minhad Air Base with drones. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump warned that further military action remained possible and threatened to hit Iran "hard". This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which continues to lend some support to crude oil prices and the safe-haven USD.

Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for important US macro data, scheduled at the start of a new month. A rather busy week kicks off with the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, due later today. The focus, however, will remain on the closely watched US monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the meantime, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors USD bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical AnalysisFollowing last week's breakdown below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), XAU/USD bears now await acceptance below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from the late July low before positioning for further losses. In the meantime, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero, with its latest negative reading, hinting at persistent downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.80 sits close to oversold territory, suggesting that while sellers are in control, the scope for additional aggressive losses could be increasingly constrained.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns at the 100-period SMA around $4,481, ahead of the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $4,532, with a retest of the cycle high region near $4,697 likely requiring a sustained break above these barriers. On the downside, first support is seen at the 38.2% retracement around $4,430, followed by the 50.0% level at $4,348 and the 61.8% retracement at $4,266. A deeper slide would expose the 78.6% level at $4,149 before the broader bullish cycle floor near $3,999.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.10%0.06%0.03%0.07%0.00%0.17%0.17%EUR-0.10%-0.04%-0.06%-0.01%-0.11%0.06%0.07%GBP-0.06%0.04%-0.04%0.03%-0.06%0.10%0.11%JPY-0.03%0.06%0.04%0.05%-0.04%0.14%0.13%CAD-0.07%0.00%-0.03%-0.05%-0.09%0.06%0.08%AUD-0.00%0.11%0.06%0.04%0.09%0.17%0.16%NZD-0.17%-0.06%-0.10%-0.14%-0.06%-0.17%0.01%CHF-0.17%-0.07%-0.11%-0.13%-0.08%-0.16%-0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/JPY inches lower after registering gains in the previous day, trading around 185.50 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of a daily chart indicates that the currency cross is remaining close to the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern, signalling a critical juncture. It offers a high-reward, low-risk entry point for traders; however, if the price presses continuously against the bottom line without bouncing back quickly, it demonstrates underlying market weakness.

The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a constructive bullish tone as it holds above both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA remains above the longer one, hinting at a sustained uptrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55.9 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, suggesting room for further gains as long as the cross defends the nearby moving average supports.

The EUR/JPY cross could advance toward the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 189.30.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross tests the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 185.40, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 185.30. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 184.86.

A break below the medium-term price average would cause a bearish reversal and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.

Yen focus intensifies ahead of BoJ as policy expectations stay in the spotlightStrategists at Scotiabank note that the “outlook for relative central bank policy remains front and center into the BoJ’s September 18 decision,” with attention increasingly drawn to signals from both domestic policymakers and international counterparts. They highlight media reports that US Secretary Bessent expects Gov. Ueda “to do the right thing,” underscoring market expectations for a measured policy response. Scotiabank also points out that Board member Takata is scheduled to speak later this week, an event that could further shape perceptions around the BoJ’s near-term policy trajectory.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold is replicating negative trades seen in Asia on Monday, as sellers return early Tuesday to challenge critical support just above the $4,400 level once again.

Gold struggles ahead of key US dataGold is fading the previous recovery from eight-day lows of $4,397, as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds sharply amid a risk-off market environment and rising US Treasury bond yields across the curve.

The Greenback continues to draw support from increased bets around a September Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike, following Chairman Kevin Warsh’s explicit signal on Friday that rate hikes may be needed to curb inflation.

Markets are pricing in a 66% chance of such a move, up from 41% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Additionally, the renewed outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East revives the geopolitical risk premium among traders, underpinning the safe-haven appeal of the USD and acting as a headwind for the Greenback-denominated bullion.

US President Donald Trump threatened further strikes against Iran on Monday after the first exchange of direct attacks in a month, while the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said that a tanker was reportedly ‌struck by three projectiles while sailing out ‌of the ‌Strait of Hormuz, 

Gold traders now look forward to a slew of US labor market data slated for release this week for fresh hints on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

The key US jobs data releases include ADP Employment Change and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

Meanwhile, the US JOLTS Job Openings Survey and ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, due later on Tuesday, will offer some incentives to Gold traders.

Beyond data, Middle East geopolitical developments will also remain in play.

Analysts at ING highlight that gold is "likely to remain sensitive to incoming US inflation and labour market data," with the near-term outlook still closely tied to the macro data calendar. They note that "central bank buying and geopolitical risks should continue to provide underlying support," but caution that "a stronger Dollar and higher-for-longer rate expectations could limit near-term upside momentum," suggesting that any rallies may struggle to gain sustained traction while US policy remains restrictive.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,431.95. The metal holds a bullish near-term bias as it climbs above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,430.38, while also trading comfortably over the 50-day SMA at $4,217.99 and the 100-day SMA at $4,366.40, which collectively underpin the broader uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.96 sits in neutral territory, hinting at steady rather than aggressive upside momentum after the latest advance.

On the downside, immediate support aligns with the 21-day SMA near $4,430, followed by the 100-day SMA at about $4,366 and the 50-day SMA around $4,218, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge on deeper pullbacks. On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 200-day SMA at $4,530.78; a sustained break above this longer-term average would open the door for a continuation of the bullish sequence toward fresh record highs.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator JOLTS Job Openings JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.

Read more.

Gold has been one of the clearest examples of why structure should come before headlines. The advance from the 2022 low has developed impulsively, producing the characteristics expected from a five-wave Elliott Wave sequence. After the powerful wave (III) advance, Gold has entered the corrective wave (IV) phase shown on our weekly chart.

The important point is what comes after wave (IV).

If the correction has established the foundation for the next impulsive sequence, Gold should eventually resume higher in wave (V). Using the inverse 1.236–1.618 Fibonacci extension of wave (IV), our next major upside target comes in at approximately:

$5,992–$6,627

This is not an arbitrary price objective. It is derived from the relationship between Elliott Wave structure and Fibonacci mathematics. The combination of the developing five-wave sequence, the completed or maturing wave (IV) correction, and the broader structural backdrop continues to favor the upside.

Gold’s Long-Term Structure: Wave (II) Created the Foundation

The long-term Gold structure became particularly important following the 2022 low.

Our weekly chart identifies that area as the completion of a major wave (II) correction. The chart also shows the key invalidation level at approximately $1,643.10.

From that wave (II) low, Gold began a powerful impulsive advance.

The progression is important because Elliott Wave theory states that a directional impulse normally unfolds in five waves:

Wave 1 → Wave 2 → Wave 3 → Wave 4 → Wave 5

Waves 1, 3 and 5 move in the direction of the dominant trend, while waves 2 and 4 are corrective phases against that trend.

Gold has already demonstrated the most powerful portion of this sequence through wave (III). The market then entered the larger wave (IV) correction.

That means the structural expectation is not necessarily that Gold’s advance is finished.

Rather, the Elliott Wave sequence argues that another wave higher—wave (V)—should still be capable of developing.

Why Five Waves Matter

The five-wave impulse is one of the most important structures in Elliott Wave analysis.

A bullish impulse normally develops as follows:

Wave 1: The first advance begins while sentiment is often still skeptical.
Wave 2: The market corrects but remains above the origin of wave 1.
Wave 3: The strongest and normally most recognizable portion of the advance develops.
Wave 4: The market corrects again, often creating the impression that the trend may be finished.
Wave 5: The final leg of the impulse pushes the market to another extreme.

Gold’s long-term structure fits this framework particularly well.

The wave (III) advance was powerful and extended. That is consistent with the behavior normally expected from a third wave.

The subsequent wave (IV) correction is therefore not automatically bearish.

Within an Elliott Wave impulse, wave 4 is a necessary corrective phase separating wave 3 from wave 5.

This distinction matters.

A correction within a bullish impulse is very different from the beginning of a new long-term bearish trend.

Our weekly Gold chart continues to favor the interpretation that the decline from wave (III) belongs to wave (IV), and that the larger bullish sequence remains incomplete.

Understanding Gold’s Wave (IV)

The correction from the wave (III) peak developed through a complex corrective structure.

On the chart, we can see combinations of corrective labels including W-X-Y and A-B-C subdivisions. This is common during fourth-wave corrections because wave 4 frequently consumes time through sideways or complex price action rather than producing a simple straight-line decline.

The market does not need to move vertically higher immediately.

What matters is whether Gold can complete the corrective sequence while preserving the larger impulsive structure.

The chart now shows the possibility that wave (IV) has either completed or is sufficiently mature for Gold to begin building the next bullish sequence.

The smaller-degree projection is also important.

Gold can initially advance in ((1)), correct in ((2)), and then begin accelerating higher.

That would create the internal subdivisions necessary for the development of the larger wave (V).

The important message is straightforward:

Wave (III) delivered the major acceleration. Wave (IV) provided the correction. Wave (V) remains the next structural objective.

Why the Next Target Is $5,992–$6,627

This is where Fibonacci mathematics becomes particularly useful.

Elliott Wave analysis does not simply identify wave labels. Fibonacci relationships allow us to estimate where subsequent waves can terminate.

For Gold, the next major target comes from applying the inverse 1.236–1.618 extension of wave (IV).

That produces the projected zone at:

1.236 inverse extension: approximately $5,992
1.618 inverse extension: approximately $6,627

Therefore, the principal wave (V) target becomes:

$5,992–$6,627

We view this as a target zone, not as a single exact price that Gold must touch.

Financial markets operate through ranges, and Fibonacci relationships are most useful when several structural factors converge within the same area.

What Does an “Inverse Fibonacci Extension” Mean?

To understand the projection, it helps to separate retracements from extensions.

Suppose wave (III) finishes at a high and wave (IV) then declines.

That wave (IV) decline creates a measurable price range.

Instead of using that measurement to look for another downside objective, we can invert the correction and project its magnitude upward from the wave (IV) low.

Conceptually, if:

H = beginning of the wave (IV) correction
L = completion of wave (IV)

then the magnitude of wave (IV) is:

Wave (IV) size = H − L

The inverse extension projects that corrective range back in the direction of the dominant bullish trend:

Target = L + Fibonacci Ratio × Wave (IV) size

Using Fibonacci multipliers such as 1.236 and 1.618, the correction becomes the measuring unit for the next advance.

Applied to Gold’s wave (IV) structure, those relationships produce the broader $5,992–$6,627 objective.

That is why this target is structurally derived rather than simply selected because it represents a psychologically attractive round number.

Why Fibonacci Ratios Appear in Elliott Wave Analysis

Fibonacci relationships are deeply integrated into Elliott Wave methodology because impulsive and corrective waves frequently demonstrate proportional relationships to one another.

The Fibonacci sequence begins:

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144…

Each number is approximately the sum of the previous two.

As the sequence progresses, dividing one Fibonacci number by the previous number increasingly approaches:

1.618

This is commonly called the Golden Ratio or φ.

Its reciprocal is approximately:

0.618

Additional ratios can then be derived from those relationships:

0.382
0.618
1.000
1.236
1.618
2.618

These ratios frequently appear when measuring retracements and extensions between Elliott Waves.

The table illustrates an important mathematical characteristic of the Fibonacci sequence: as the numbers become larger, the ratios between them converge increasingly toward stable Fibonacci relationships.

This is why Elliott Wave analysis does not treat Fibonacci levels as isolated numbers.

They are used to compare the proportional relationship between different waves of the same market structure.

Why 1.236 and 1.618 Are Important Here

The 1.618 extension is especially important because it represents the Golden Ratio and appears frequently during impulsive market expansions.

The 1.236 extension provides another important proportional projection. It can be viewed as a derived Fibonacci relationship and is frequently useful when markets extend beyond a prior extreme without necessarily reaching a full 1.618 expansion immediately.

Together, the 1.236–1.618 area creates a Fibonacci extension zone rather than forcing the forecast to depend on one exact number.

For Gold, that is particularly useful.

Wave (V) does not have to equal one precise mathematical relationship.

Instead, the market can enter the projected Fibonacci area and begin showing evidence that the larger five-wave sequence is becoming mature.

That is why we prefer the range:

$5,992–$6,627

rather than claiming that one individual price must represent the final high.

The Internal Structure of Wave (V) Will Matter

One important point should not be overlooked.

Wave (V) itself should subdivide.

A larger fifth wave normally develops internally as another sequence of waves:

((1)) → ((2)) → ((3)) → ((4)) → ((5))

The weekly Gold chart already illustrates the possibility of the first stages of that process.

An initial rally can complete wave ((1)).

A subsequent pullback can develop as wave ((2)).

If the market then accelerates in wave ((3)), the larger wave (V) advance would become increasingly visible.

This is why short-term corrections do not necessarily contradict the long-term bullish forecast.

They may be required to build the internal structure.

The stronger confirmation would come if Gold continues producing bullish impulses followed by corrective pullbacks that hold above important structural lows.

That would create the necessary building blocks for the larger advance toward the Fibonacci extension zone.

Fundamentals Can Support the Gold Structure

Our methodology places structure first, but fundamentals can provide the environment that eventually supports the Elliott Wave path.

Several long-term themes can continue to provide a constructive backdrop for Gold.

Central-Bank Demand and Reserve Diversification

Gold remains one of the world’s primary monetary reserve assets.

Countries seeking greater diversification of foreign-exchange reserves can increase strategic demand for physical Gold.

That process does not need to occur quickly to affect the long-term cycle. Persistent institutional accumulation can provide an important structural source of demand.

Fiscal Deficits and Sovereign Debt

Large fiscal deficits and expanding sovereign debt can also increase demand for assets that are viewed as stores of value outside the traditional fiat monetary system.

The significance is not that debt automatically causes Gold to rise every year.

Rather, persistent concerns about fiscal sustainability can contribute to a longer-term monetary premium for Gold.

Real Interest Rates

Gold has historically been sensitive to real interest-rate expectations.

When investors anticipate declining real yields or easier monetary conditions, the opportunity cost associated with holding a non-yielding asset such as Gold can fall.

A future environment of monetary easing or falling real rates could therefore provide a fundamental catalyst for the next impulsive advance.

Currency Diversification

Gold also functions as an alternative monetary asset.

Periods of concern regarding purchasing power, currency debasement or excessive monetary expansion can increase interest in Gold.

This becomes particularly important when the structural chart is already pointing higher.

Geopolitical Risk

Gold continues to function as a strategic hedge during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

No single geopolitical event is required to produce the Elliott Wave target, but persistent global instability can reinforce long-term institutional demand.

Constrained Supply

Gold mine production cannot be increased instantly in response to price.

New discoveries, permitting, development and mine construction require significant capital and considerable time.

That supply constraint can become increasingly important if investment and central-bank demand expand simultaneously.

Gold and Copper: Different Fundamentals, Similar Structural Message

There is another interesting element to the bullish Gold outlook.

We have also been following an important Elliott Wave development in Copper ($HG).

Gold and Copper are fundamentally different markets.

Gold is heavily influenced by monetary conditions, reserve demand, real yields and safe-haven flows.

Copper is much more sensitive to industrial activity, electrification, infrastructure, power generation, grid investment and economic growth.

Yet Elliott Wave structure can reveal something that traditional fundamental analysis sometimes misses:

different markets can enter powerful impulsive phases at the same time.

Our recent analysis of Copper ($HG) and Dow Jones Futures ($YM) highlighted how overlapping bullish structures can reveal a developing nest and potentially signal a much larger market acceleration:

Dow Jones and Copper: Why the Overlap Reveals a Nest and Signals a Major Risk-On Acceleration

Dow Jones and Copper: Why the Overlap Reveals a Nest and Signals a Major Risk-On Acceleration

The significance for Gold is not that $HG and $XAU must move tick-for-tick together.

They should not.

The larger message is that multiple major asset classes can simultaneously remain inside incomplete bullish Elliott Wave cycles.

Copper can express the industrial and growth side of that cycle.

Dow Jones can express the equity-market side.

Gold can express the monetary and hard-asset side.

When several major markets independently display incomplete bullish structures, it deserves attention.

Copper and Gold Can Rise for Different Reasons

This distinction is particularly important.

Some investors assume Gold and Copper must provide contradictory economic signals.

That does not necessarily need to be the case.

Copper can rise because of:

Electrification
Grid investment
AI-related electricity demand
Infrastructure requirements
Supply constraints
Industrial expansion

Gold can rise simultaneously because of:

Monetary demand
Central-bank accumulation
Currency diversification
Fiscal concerns
Lower real-rate expectations
Geopolitical hedging

Consequently, a strong Copper market does not invalidate a bullish Gold structure.

Both can participate in a broader hard-asset and nominal-price expansion, while their individual fundamental catalysts remain different.

That makes the structure in $HG particularly interesting when viewed alongside Gold.

Structure Comes Before the Explanation

One of the greatest advantages of Elliott Wave analysis is that we do not need to identify the exact fundamental catalyst years before it occurs.

Financial markets frequently begin building their structures before the eventual narrative becomes obvious.

Gold demonstrated this after the 2022 wave (II) low.

At that point, the market structure began signaling the possibility of a much larger bullish cycle.

The subsequent wave (III) advance validated that structural interpretation.

Now the market has moved into another important phase.

Wave (IV) represents the correction.

Wave (V) should represent the next opportunity for expansion.

Eventually, the financial media may attribute that advance to interest rates, central-bank purchases, inflation, currency concerns, geopolitical events or another catalyst.

But from an Elliott Wave perspective, the more important observation comes first:

The five-wave sequence remains incomplete.

Conclusion: Gold’s Next Major Objective Is $5,992–$6,627

Gold’s long-term Elliott Wave structure continues to present a compelling case for additional upside.

The major wave (II) low created the foundation.

Wave (III) delivered the powerful impulsive advance.

Wave (IV) has provided the necessary correction.

And if that structure remains intact, the next major phase should be wave (V).

Using the inverse 1.236–1.618 Fibonacci extension of wave (IV), the next major Gold target comes in at:

$5,992–$6,627

The significance of this range goes beyond the numbers themselves.

It combines three important elements:

A five-wave Elliott Wave advance, a completed or maturing wave (IV) correction, and a Fibonacci projection for the next impulsive phase.

The bullish structures developing elsewhere—including Copper ($HG)—add another dimension to the long-term outlook. They suggest that Gold’s advance may not be occurring in isolation, but as part of a broader structural expansion across several important asset classes.

There will be corrections along the way. Wave (V) itself should contain smaller waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, meaning the path toward the target is unlikely to be a straight line.

But the larger roadmap remains clear.

As long as the Elliott Wave structure continues to validate the bullish sequence, Gold’s next major objective remains the $5,992–$6,627 area.

Why is the Oil Shock Affecting Stocks, Bonds and Gold?Renewed US-Iran military strikes pushed Brent crude to approximately $90.49 and WTI to $85.76 at Monday’s settlement. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.768%, its highest level since January 2025.

This is no longer only a conventional geopolitical-risk trade. The more important development is the possibility that higher energy costs keep inflation elevated and force the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter monetary policy, or potentially raise rates again. Market pricing placed the probability of a September rate increase at roughly 65%.

What stands out is the cross-market transmission:

Higher oil raises inflation risk.Higher inflation expectations push yields upward.Higher yields reduce the relative appeal of expensive growth stocks.Higher real-rate expectations can also pressure gold.Investors become more selective instead of simply moving into every traditional safe haven.This is a stagflationary combination, meaning inflation pressure is increasing while economic and financial conditions may become less supportive. That is generally a more difficult environment for broad equity markets than a temporary geopolitical headline alone.

What Does the Oil Move Mean for Nasdaq Futures?Nasdaq futures remain below the important 29,540-29,590 acceptance area and are testing the 29,385 neighborhood.

That matters because technology and other long-duration growth stocks are especially sensitive to rising yields. When the return available from government bonds increases, investors may become less willing to pay elevated valuations for profits expected far into the future.

Bearish Nasdaq ScenarioA sustained break below 29,385 would strengthen the case for selling rallies rather than chasing temporary rebounds. The key word is sustained. A brief move below the level followed by an immediate recovery could be a liquidity sweep rather than a genuine breakdown. Traders may look for price to remain below the level, fail on a retest, or show another form of confirmation that matches their timeframe.

Nasdaq Recovery ScenarioThe bearish setup would weaken if Nasdaq futures reclaim and hold above 29,540-29,590, particularly if WTI also falls back below approximately $85. That combination would suggest that both the technical damage and the inflationary energy pressure are beginning to ease.

What Oil Levels Could Confirm That the Inflation Trade is Continuing?WTI crude oil ($86): Holding above $86 would indicate that the market is maintaining the energy risk premium rather than quickly reversing the geopolitical move.Brent crude oil ($90.50): Sustained trade above approximately $90.50 would reinforce the view that the oil shock is continuing to influence inflation expectations and global risk sentiment.WTI below $85: A retreat below approximately $85, especially if accompanied by falling Treasury yields, would reduce some of the immediate pressure on growth stocks.The practical relative-strength preference remains energy over rate-sensitive growth while oil and yields stay elevated. That does not mean energy must continue higher, but it means the current macro conditions are more supportive for the sector than for richly valued technology shares.

Is Bitcoin Separating from the Stock Market?Bitcoin rebounded from approximately $77,165 to around $78,600, even as yields increased and US equities weakened. It has also recovered the $78,340 trigger area.

That is a meaningful sign of short-term relative strength. Bitcoin is, for now, resisting some of the risk-off pressure affecting equities. However, this is still an early recovery attempt rather than a confirmed breakout. BTC remains below its recent intraday high near $79,225 and the larger $80,000 psychological barrier.

Bitcoin Bullish ScenarioThe tactical bullish case remains viable while BTC holds above $78,340. A sustained break above $79,225 would provide the first stronger confirmation. Acceptance above $80,000 would be more important because it would show that buyers can overcome both technical resistance and a widely watched psychological level.

Bitcoin Bearish InvalidationA loss of $78,340 would weaken the early relative-strength signal. A break below approximately $77,165 would invalidate the immediate rebound structure and suggest that Bitcoin is being pulled back into the wider risk-off move.

Note: Bitcoin spot, futures and perpetual contracts can trade at slightly different prices. Traders should map these zones to the specific instrument and exchange they use.

Why is Gold Falling During Geopolitical Escalation?Gold futures settled near $4,481 after declining approximately 1.1%, while spot gold approached a two-week low.

This may appear surprising because gold is commonly treated as a safe-haven asset. However, gold does not react to geopolitical risk in isolation. It is also highly sensitive to interest rates, real yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

In the current environment, rising oil prices are increasing inflation and tightening concerns. Higher bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not pay interest. For now, that rate effect is outweighing some of the safe-haven demand. The practical lesson is important: geopolitical escalation alone is not automatically a gold-long signal.

What Would Improve the Gold Outlook?Gold futures need to recover and hold above approximately $4,489-$4,490 to restart the intraday recovery case. Until that happens, rallies remain vulnerable, particularly while the US 10-year yield stays near or above 4.75%.

Note: The levels in this article are based on gold futures. Spot gold, CFDs and gold ETFs may trade at different prices, so traders should use the futures levels as market-structure references and adjust them to their own instruments.

The Clearest Cross-Asset Trading MapOil Shock ContinuesWTI holds above $86 or Brent establishes acceptance above $90.50. This maintains inflation pressure and supports the energy-over-growth theme.

Nasdaq Bearish ConfirmationNasdaq futures sustain trade below 29,385, strengthening the sell-rallies case while yields remain elevated.

Nasdaq Bearish InvalidationNasdaq futures reclaim 29,540-29,590 while WTI retreats below ~$85, indicating macro and structural pressures are easing.

Bitcoin Upside ConfirmationBTC holds above $78,340, clears $79,225, and establishes acceptance above $80,000.

Bitcoin Rebound InvalidationBTC breaks below approximately $77,165.

Gold Recovery ConfirmationGold futures reclaim and hold above $4,489-$4,490, ideally with the 10-year yield retreating from 4.75%.

Gold futures price - if and when reaches and maintains $4523 then bulls are probably back in business.

What Should Traders Watch Next?The most important relationship is not the move in any single asset. It is whether oil and Treasury yields continue rising together.

If they do, the market is likely to remain difficult for rate-sensitive growth stocks and gold, while energy retains relative strength. Bitcoin may continue to resist that pressure, but it still needs to break above $79,225-$80,000 before its relative strength becomes a more reliable bullish signal.

If oil falls below its key thresholds and yields retreat, Nasdaq futures could recover, gold’s intraday repair could restart, and the wider risk-off pressure may begin to ease.

Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to near $4,445 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal loses momentum as ongoing tensions in the Middle East stoked concerns about inflationary pressures that could make the Federal Reserve hike interest rates. 

US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to forcefully strike Iran after Washington and Tehran exchanged fire for the first time in a month. Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted US military bases in the two Middle Eastern countries in response to the first US strikes on Iran in weeks. The US military announced an attack Sunday on what it said were Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, in the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders assess rising bets of a Fed rate hike following hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh as a surge in oil prices further added to inflation concerns. At the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to its inflation target and indicated policymakers were not yet confident price pressures were easing sufficiently.

“The move toward a more hawkish stance was surprising to many investors, so some short-term headwinds on gold should continue,” said GAMA Asset Management Global Macro Portfolio Manager Rajeev De Mello.

Traders are now pricing in more than 65.4% odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, up from around 39.9% before the speech, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Gold eases as markets reassess Fed path after Jackson HoleAccording to TD Securities, Gold “settles lower near $4,600/oz as markets weigh Fed monetary policy path, following Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks,” with the move reflecting a reassessment of the rate outlook in the wake of the latest Fed communication.

Warsh flags unfinished inflation fight, keeps Dollar bulls alertFed Chair Warsh delivered a notably more hawkish-leaning tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7.4 versus a 6.5 historical average, underscoring heightened concern on price stability despite solid growth and stable labor markets. The insistence that the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to objective or “we have work to do,” combined with comments that financial conditions are not restrictive and credit markets show few signs of policy restraint, signals openness to further tightening if inflation trends fail to improve meaningfully. Warsh’s emphasis that the 2% PCE target is “firm and fixed” and that the predominant focus should be on prices supports a Dollar-positive bias, even as near-term patience from the July meeting is acknowledged.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated 129.70, confirming that the broader policy narrative remains firmly in hawkish territory according to the FXS Speechtracker. The lack of index movement suggests the speech reinforced, rather than shifted, existing expectations that the Fed will prioritize delivering price stability, a backdrop that should continue to underpin the Dollar against lower-yielding peers.

Technical Analysis: Gold priceIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as price remains above the 100-day Moving Average (MA) at $4,370.48 and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day simple moving average (SMA) center line at $4,430.23, suggesting the broader uptrend is still supported. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 keeps momentum in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that bullish pressure persists but without overstretched conditions.

On the topside, the Bollinger Bands’ upper boundary near $4,723.68 acts as the next significant resistance, where buyers could start to hesitate. On the downside, immediate support is located around the $4,430 area at the 20-day SMA, followed by the 100-day MA at $4,370.48, while a deeper pullback would likely be cushioned by the lower Bollinger band near $4,136.78.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

GBP/JPY trades flattish for the third straight day as buyers have failed to decisively crack the 217.00 level, which could open the door to further upside. This pushed the cross-pair to the mid-point of the trading range of 216.08-216.85,

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe daily chart shows that GBP/JPY is neutral-biased, even though prices are above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), each at 215.96, 215.09, and 212.95, respectively.

Momentum is measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which also suggests that the GBP/JPY is bullish, but it has faded as the index approaches the 50-neutral level. Hence, the cross-pair is poised for sideways action.

For a bullish continuation, the first resistance is 217.00. A breach of the latter will expose the July 9 high at 218.01, followed by the yearly high of 219.61.

On the other hand, a breach of the 50-day SMA at 215.96 opens the path to challenge the 100-day SMA ahead of 215.00. Below the next support is the 214.00 psychological level.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Silver has decisively broken above the once-formidable $50 barrier, but Peter Krauth believes the bull market still has room to run.

During a recent Money Metals podcast interview with host Mike Maharrey, Krauth argued that strong investment demand, industrial consumption, depleted exchange inventories, and emerging technologies continue to support higher silver prices.

Krauth is the editor behind the Silver Stock Investor newsletter and the author of The Great Silver Bull. Maharrey described the book as one of the best overall guides to the silver market.

Silver’s next stop could be $80 to $85Silver traded just below $70 as Maharrey and Krauth recorded the interview. Krauth characterized the metal as moderately underpriced at that level.

He expects silver to reach approximately $80 to $85 before the end of 2026. He stopped short of calling for an immediate move to $90 or $100, describing his forecast as a more realistic reflection of current market conditions.

Silver’s strength comes from its hybrid nature. Roughly half of its demand is tied to monetary and investment uses, while the other half comes from industry. Krauth said both sides of that market are currently providing strong support.

The move above $50 represents a historic change. Only a year ago, silver remained around $40 and had not broken through the price ceiling that had held for roughly 45 years.

Krauth now views $50 as silver’s new floor. The metal repeatedly tested approximately $55 during the summer without returning to its previous all-time high.

That resilience is a bullish signal. Barring a major “black swan” event, Krauth does not expect silver to trade below $50 again.

Why supply deficits took time to move the priceSilver has recorded several consecutive annual supply deficits, leaving some investors wondering why prices did not rise sooner.

Krauth said the answer can be found in the large stockpiles accumulated during earlier years of oversupply. Surplus metal flowed into exchanges and trading hubs such as the COMEX, the London Bullion Market Association, and Shanghai.

When annual deficits began emerging around 2020 or 2021, industrial users and other large buyers did not necessarily need miners to produce additional silver. They could purchase metal already stored in exchange inventories at prevailing prices.

If silver traded at $20, for example, buyers could acquire existing inventory for approximately $20 without placing immediate pressure on mine production. This allowed deficits to persist while muting their effect on the market price.

That inventory buffer has since eroded. Krauth said exchange stockpiles began falling dramatically in early 2021.

COMEX inventories increased near the end of 2025, but silver’s subsequent “mania phase” produced another major drawdown. Inventories have now returned to lows seen during the last several years.

With less above-ground silver readily available, persistent deficits are becoming more consequential. Krauth believes depleted inventories are helping keep prices elevated.

Do official deficit figures understate demand?The Silver Institute releases its annual market survey each April. According to Krauth, its figures showed a deficit of approximately 150 million ounces in one recent year, followed by about 50 million ounces in 2025. The organization forecast a deficit of roughly 55 million ounces for 2026.

Those figures do not include silver flowing into exchange-traded funds. ETF purchases appear as a separate category because the metal is not physically consumed and could eventually return to the market.

Krauth questions that methodology. Physical investment products such as silver coins and bars are included in deficit calculations even though they are also held rather than consumed. Dealers can repurchase those products and resell them to other investors.

Silver purchased by an ETF is likewise removed from readily available supplies. It must be acquired and stored to support the fund’s shares.

When Krauth added ETF inflows to the calculation, he found that the 2025 silver deficit exceeded 300 million ounces. By that measure, it was the largest single annual silver deficit on record.

ETF metal can theoretically reenter the market, but Krauth described silver ETF holdings as historically “sticky.” Investors frequently buy these positions and hold them for extended periods.

With ETF inventories building again, he believes conventional deficit estimates may significantly understate total silver demand.

Solar power remains a major source of consumptionIndustrial demand for silver continues to expand, particularly in solar energy. Maharrey cited an estimate that solar-panel adoption in Africa would rise 45 percent in 2026.

Krauth compared Africa’s solar expansion with the earlier spread of cellular service across developing countries. Mobile networks reduced the need to install physical cables everywhere. Solar panels similarly allow communities to generate electricity without first connecting every home to a large centralized grid.

Research from the energy group Ember illustrates solar power’s improving economics. Krauth described a scenario in which $100 million could purchase enough natural gas to generate 1.5 terawatts of energy for one year.

The same $100 million could provide 1.5 terawatts through solar energy. Unlike natural gas, however, the solar panels could continue producing electricity for approximately 25 years.

Existing natural-gas plants still represent major capital investments. But utilities, governments, households, and data-center operators planning new capacity have strong financial incentives to consider solar.

Will Copper replace Silver in solar panels?Some manufacturers are exploring copper as a substitute for silver in photovoltaic cells. Krauth acknowledged the risk but believes concerns about substitution remain overstated.

Copper is less efficient than silver and is vulnerable to corrosion. Manufacturers would also need to make large capital investments, retool production facilities, and potentially suspend operations for months to change technologies.

Durability matters to solar customers. Buyers expect panels to operate for 10 or 20 years, not merely three to five years.

Meanwhile, some newer and more efficient photovoltaic technologies require more silver rather than less. Krauth wants to see evidence of substitution occurring on a large commercial scale before concluding it will materially reduce demand.

Recent energy disruptions have also accelerated interest in alternatives. Krauth said the loss of 20 percent of the world’s oil supply following the conflict with Iran affected gasoline, heating oil, chemicals, and other petroleum derivatives.

Octopus Energy, the United Kingdom’s largest electricity provider, reportedly saw its solar-panel sales jump 50 percent in February and March 2026. China’s silver imports reached a record in March, approximately doubling the previous monthly high.

That same month, 50 countries purchased record quantities of solar panels from China.

Energy insecurity can support silver even when countries continue using oil. Businesses and governments may pay premiums for dependable supplies, sign longer contracts, or move production closer to home. Those actions raise costs and increase inflationary pressure, strengthening silver’s monetary appeal.

AI, electric vehicles, and medicine add new demandEven if solar demand eventually plateaus, Krauth expects electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and data centers to absorb more silver.

Silver is the most conductive metal for both electricity and heat. It is used in processors, switching equipment, servers, and other components where reliability is essential. Data-center failures are extremely expensive, making silver’s superior performance particularly valuable.

Krauth is also fascinated by silver’s medical uses. Silver is a biocide capable of killing germs and bacteria without losing effectiveness as microorganisms adapt.

Silver nanoparticles can be incorporated into medical products such as corneal replacements to reduce infection risks. Operating rooms and other medical environments also rely on the metal’s antimicrobial properties.

With applications spanning energy, transportation, computing, and healthcare, Krauth sees little reason to worry about overall industrial demand.

Krauth announces a new Vancouver investment summitKrauth directs investors to TheGoldAdvisor.com, where he works with analyst Jeff Clark. The site features their research and newsletters covering precious metals and mining investments.

Krauth’s book, The Great Silver Bull, provides an introduction to physical silver and silver-mining stocks. Maharrey praised it as a practical handbook suitable for both new investors and experienced fund managers.

Peter Krauth also announced the inaugural Gold Advisor Investor Summit, scheduled for November 5, 2026, in Vancouver. The free, one-day event will feature several dozen companies and cover gold, silver, copper, lithium, uranium, and the broader mining sector.

His central message was clear. Silver has already overcome the $50 barrier that skeptics once considered nearly insurmountable, but the combination of investment demand, depleted inventories, industrial growth, and monetary uncertainty suggests the bull market is not finished.

$66.5440

+0.28%

Silver tests $65.67 and its 20-day average after a 29.5% rebound. Holding support keeps the uptrend intact, with resistance clustered near $71.56–$72.44.

In this article:Silver

+0.28%

Silver Forecast20-Day Average Becomes Near-Term Pivot Silver declined to a lower daily low of $65.67 on Monday, as it tested support near the 20-day moving average for the first time since that average was reclaimed in early August. The decline completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing at $65.85, reinforcing the support zone. The confluence of those two support levels is further reinforced by a small former resistance range from earlier in August that now occupies the same area.

Those overlapping levels create a well-defined zone that bulls will want to defend if the mid-July reversal is to remain valid. Whether a recovery follows Monday’s low or not, silver has reached a key near-term pivot. A sustained decline below the 20-day moving average would suggest further downside pressure, while staying above it would continue to support the integrity of the developing uptrend.

Spot silver daily chart shows pullback to 20-day moving average. Source: TradingView Two Scenarios After 29% Rebound Although a break below the 20-day moving average would be a sign of weakening, it could lead to further downside or to a relatively quick recovery. That is why multiple levels are watched and why signals need additional confirmation. Two basic scenarios may unfold from here, each with its own variations. On one hand, silver has been showing signs of a bullish reversal of the short-term downtrend since the second half of July.

As of the rally high of $71.18, it was up by as much as 29.5% from the $54.78 low reached in mid-July. Was there any significance to that resistance zone that would suggest it was only a temporary stop on the way to higher targets, or that it completed the current advance?

Spot silver daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView 200-Day Cluster Still Overhead The answer to that question is that the resistance zone may be significant, since it is highlighted by three indicators. There is a prior lower swing high at $71.56, a 50% retracement of a prior downswing at $72.08, and the 200-day moving average near $72.44 and rising. Either the area around the 200-day moving average can be further tested before support at the 20-day moving average fails, or further signs of strength may follow Monday’s low, generating a higher swing low and another leg up in the uptrend.

Traders will watch price action around Monday’s low and the 20-day moving average for confirmation of the next swing. In that way, the test of the 20-day moving average that opened this week also closes the near-term question: whether the advance that began from the mid-July low remains intact.

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Natural Gas News: Futures Bounce From Value Zone as September Heat ExtendsSilver (XAG) Forecast: Warsh and Higher Oil Keep Silver Sellers in ControlWTI and Brent Oil Forecast: Middle East Tensions Drive VolatilityAbout the Author

With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, Bruce is a seasoned finance MBA and CMT® charter holder. Having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and a corporate advisor for trading firms, Bruce shares his expertise in futures to retail investors, providing actionable insights through both technical and fundamental analyses.

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Daily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech is still in the price. He said Friday the central bank has more work to do on inflation and left a September rate increase on the table. The dollar firmed Monday. Treasury yields climbed. Silver was already under pressure from Friday’s reversal and Warsh gave sellers another reason to lean on the market.

Oil jumped Monday after reports of fresh U.S. military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Silver traders already know what higher crude does to the inflation outlook. That is not a headline the metal can ignore when the Fed is already watching prices. The combination kept silver on the defensive for most of the session. Prices ran from $67.47 to $65.67 in a few hours as the rate story and the oil story both worked against the metal at the same time.

The late bounce off the lows took the worst of the damage out but the daily close is still red. Silver went from $65.67 back to $66.11 by late afternoon. That stopped the bleeding from Friday. It did not reverse it.

Factory Demand Held the Floor Physical demand from factories and solar-panel makers did not disappear because Warsh gave a speech. That bid is the reason silver found buyers near $65.67 instead of breaking through. Dealers noted that inventories have not flooded the market. When the first wave of selling exhausted itself Monday afternoon, there was enough demand underneath to catch the metal.

The recovery was not aggressive. A move from $65.67 to $66.11 is stabilization, not a reversal. But after a 4% Friday and a full day of selling pressure Monday, holding that low was the minimum the demand side needed to deliver. The month is still up 14%. The year is still up more than 60%. Nobody ran for the exits at $65.67 and that tells you something about how the physical market is reading this pullback.

Daily Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis

Silver (XAG/USD) is little changed on Monday, caught between a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lingering hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, leaving the metal without clear direction after tumbling 4.11% on Friday in the wake of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $66.25, down 0.23% on the day.

Warsh's inflation-focused remarks at Jackson Hole initially pushed the US Dollar to over one-week highs, with the Dollar Index (DXY) climbing as high as 99.72, as traders revived bets on a September rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at next month's meeting. The Greenback has since retraced most of those gains on Monday, with the DXY trading around 99.44 at the time of writing.

From a technical perspective, the latest leg lower has pushed XAG/USD back below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), tilting the near-term bias to bearish, though the metal still holds above the 50-day SMA at $61 and a Fibonacci support band between $60.97 (61.8% retracement) and $64.79 (38.2% level).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 53 remains in neutral territory, having eased from above 60, suggesting bullish momentum is starting to fade while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers near the zero line with a flattened profile, hinting at a consolidative phase before the next directional move.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $67.16, followed closely by the 100-day SMA near $68, where a sustained break would open the way toward the Fibonacci structural anchor at $70.99 and ultimately the 200-day SMA at $72.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $64.79, with deeper demand located at the 50% level at $62.88 and the 61.8% retracement at $60.97, while the 50-day SMA at $61 reinforces this broader demand zone on any extended pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.29%-0.10%-0.24%-0.35%-0.01%-0.09%-0.18%EUR0.29%0.18%0.06%-0.03%0.23%0.22%0.11%GBP0.10%-0.18%-0.11%-0.24%0.05%0.03%-0.04%JPY0.24%-0.06%0.11%-0.12%0.22%0.17%0.08%CAD0.35%0.03%0.24%0.12%0.35%0.29%0.19%AUD0.01%-0.23%-0.05%-0.22%-0.35%-0.04%-0.09%NZD0.09%-0.22%-0.03%-0.17%-0.29%0.04%-0.08%CHF0.18%-0.11%0.04%-0.08%-0.19%0.09%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

FOMC Chairman Kevin Warsh got the memo for his Jackson Hole speech on Friday. With markets starting to fear that his aloofness and lack of communication was starting to degrade the central bank's credibility, the famously anti-forward guidance Warsh confessed that the central bank would have “work to do” if inflation didn't abate soon and that he “would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.

Over the last few trading sessions, a loss of momentum in the Mexican peso has become increasingly evident. USD/MXN has gained approximately 0.57% over the past four sessions, reflecting a moderate recovery in the U.S. dollar against the Mexican currency.

US Nonfarm Payrolls → USD/JPYFed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, stressing that progress toward the 2.0% inflation target remains modest and reaffirming price stability as the Fed’s primary mandate. Markets responded by repricing the odds of a 25bps September hike to more than 50%, sending USD/JPY above the key 159.50 resistance toward the 160.00 psychological barrier.

However, the bulls failed to clear the 50-day EMA as the risk of FX intervention continues to hang in the background. At the same time, Warsh’s preference for data dependency over forward guidance may encourage thinner liquidity ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Consensus expects 58k new jobs following July’s 23k decline, an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate, and wage growth easing to 3.0% y/y from 3.2%. A downside surprise could be partly cushioned by safe-haven flows if US-Iran military tensions escalate further. Therefore, barring intervention, attention remains firmly on the 160.00 area, with a sustained break potentially opening the way toward 161.00 and then up to 162.00.

RBNZ Rate Decision → NZD/USDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes center stage on Wednesday (02:00 GMT), with markets fully pricing in a back-to-back 25bps hike to 2.75%. Above-target inflation keeps hawkish forward guidance on the table, as futures markets price in an additional hike by year-end.

A hawkish policy guidance could see NZD/USD pivot off its 20-day SMA near 0.5900 to test the key 0.5990 horizontal resistance level established in May. However, the recent increase in the unemployment rate to 5.6% and anchored inflation expectations slightly above 2% may prompt the RBNZ governor to favor a gradual tightening pace. Considering geopolitical risks, which favor the US dollar, the pair could face a rocky path ahead. On the downside, fresh selling might be waiting near 0.5890.

US-Iran Conflict → GoldGold plunged to 4,396 following Warsh’s speech as the US 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4.70%, with shorter-term yields rising even faster.

Although gold remains on track for a positive monthly close, currently establishing a footing near its 20-day SMA, Friday’s sharp decline reinforces the risk of a short-term bearish pullback. Technically, the bears need a sustained break below 4,300 to trigger deeper selling towards 4,000.

Beyond the NFP data, markets will also monitor the escalating US-Iran conflict after the US attacked Iran’s Larak Island and Iran retaliated with strikes against US bases in Jordan and UAE. President Trump’s AI-generated video depicting fires on Kharg Island further suggests that Washington remains willing to combine military pressure with sanctions to force Tehran to make concessions over its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.

Against this backdrop, gold has recently traded more like a risk asset than a traditional safe haven. Without renewed US fiscal or debt concerns or a potentially disappointing jobs report, elevated real yields could keep bullion vulnerable to further downside momentum.

EUR/USD holds modest gains on Monday during American trading hours as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on Friday’s strength, which followed hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1595, up roughly 0.11% on the day.

The US Dollar rose about 0.55% on Friday and reached its highest level in more than a week after Warsh signalled that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy further. He stressed that the central bank’s 2% inflation target is “firm” and said policymakers still “have work to do” unless underlying inflation moves toward the target at a sufficient pace.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.55 on Monday after reaching 99.72, its highest level since August 14. US Treasury yields also surged following Warsh’s speech, with the benchmark 10-year yield trading near 4.75% at the time of writing, its highest level since January 2025.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in around a 61% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in September, up from 38% before Warsh’s remarks.

On the Euro side, softer-than-expected preliminary German inflation data did little to alter expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates next month. Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that Tuesday Eurozone inflation data should underscore lingering price pressures. In their view, “above target inflation and a firmer growth outlook give the ECB scope to normalize the policy rate towards the upper end of its estimated 1.75% to 3.00% neutral range.”

Reflecting this backdrop, BBH highlights that “the swaps curve has virtually fully priced in a 25bps ECB rate hike to 2.50% on September 10 and a total of 60bps of tightening over the next twelve months.”

At the same time, rising energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East are adding to concerns that inflation could stay above the Fed’s and ECB’s 2% targets for longer. This supports expectations of tighter monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.

However, the US Dollar is likely to retain the upper hand as hawkish Fed expectations, elevated Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions keep the Greenback supported in the near term. Attention now turns to this week’s US economic data, particularly Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could shape expectations for the September decision.

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Gold tests key $4,510 support after Monday’s gap lower. Technical analysis examines the rebound attempt as US interest rates and the dollar drive volatility.

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold trades at 4,513.9, breaking above the 50 EMA and the 4,500 resistance, with the 200 EMA rising near 4,333 and the next key level at 4,700. Source: TradingView. The gold market gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Monday, fell somewhat, and then turned around to show signs of life. This is a relatively decent sign considering how ugly Friday ended up being, and it does look like we are trying to turn around at an area that’s been important in the past, but whether or not we actually can remains to be seen.

The cluster right around $4,510 so far has supported the market. Interest rates have drifted a little bit lower, and therefore it does give the appearance of a market that may be rethinking some of the action on Friday. But at the same time, we are lower than where we started, so we do have to keep in mind that there are a lot of moving pieces at the moment, and therefore a lot of things to watch.

Technical Support and Interest Rate Pressures From a technical analysis standpoint, this is pretty much where we would want to see the market try to fight back in this area, and so far, it has. However, there is a lot of noise in the market at the moment, and that probably won’t change soon.

The gold market is going to be heavily influenced by US interest rates. They have drifted a little bit lower so far for the session; we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out. And of course the US dollar, as it is priced in US dollars, has a certain amount of influence here as well. We’re right here at a support area where there has been a lot of action previously. We’ll just have to wait and see on Monday if this actually supports the market.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Monday and trades around $66.70 at the time of writing, up 0.40% on the day. The main obstacle to a stronger recovery in Silver remains the shift in expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium, stressing that policymakers still have “work to do” if underlying inflationary pressures fail to ease sufficiently.

These comments prompted investors to significantly raise expectations for monetary tightening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now see around a 61% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the September meeting, compared with roughly 35% before Warsh’s speech. The prospect of higher interest rates for longer could weigh on Silver, which offers no yield.

The white metal nevertheless benefits from a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD), helping support Monday’s rebound. After strengthening on Friday as markets reassessed the Fed’s rate outlook, the Greenback loses some momentum, providing some relief to precious metals denominated in US Dollars.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also provide support to Silver by boosting demand for safe-haven assets. The United States (US) and Iran exchange fresh strikes after more than a month of a fragile truce. US forces attacked Iranian facilities on Larak Island on Sunday, while Tehran subsequently said it had targeted US military facilities in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The escalation, however, has a mixed impact on Silver. Higher Oil prices amid mounting tensions in the Middle East increase inflation risks and could reinforce the Fed’s case for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance, which is a negative factor for non-yielding metals.

Attention now turns to upcoming US economic data, including the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys and Friday’s August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Persistent signs of weakness in the labor market could temper expectations for higher interest rates and support Silver, while strong data or renewed inflationary pressures could reinforce the case for monetary tightening in September.

US data in focus as Fed shifts gaze from jobs to inflationAnalysts at Rabobank highlight a busy US data slate, starting with the July JOLTS report. They note that “normally not a market mover, it could nevertheless shed more light on the recent slowdown in job growth,” offering additional context ahead of the main labour-market release later in the week.

Turning to activity indicators, Rabobank points out that “only a small fall in the US ISM manufacturing survey for August (as per the consensus) could be interpreted by the market as a sign that US, as well as global, manufacturing activity is recovering despite ongoing concerns over tensions in the Middle East.”

The bank underscores that “the US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment figures are the highlight of the day,” with “the street forecasts net job creation of 55,000 in August, following an unexpected dip in July.” However, they caution that “although the jobs report is always a market mover, Fed Chair Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole suggest the Fed’s focus is now on the near-term path for inflation rather than the labour market,” potentially tempering the policy implications of any surprise in the headline numbers.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

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Pound-New Zealand Dollar could face further pressure if the RBNZ raises rates, while cautious BoE signals may leave Sterling vulnerable. The Pound New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate was volatile last week, with the pairing eventually sliding to a 12-week low.

At the time of writing, GBP/NZD traded at NZ$2.2824, virtually unchanged on the week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.288956 (+0.22%)

Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.958837 (+0.07%)

New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.591274 (-0.68%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) attracted some support on Monday after an analysis from the Resolution Foundation thinktank suggested that UK productivity may have improved in recent years, rather than weakening.

Sterling then fluctuated, as a lack of data left it exposed to volatility.

After GBP/NZD touched a five-day high midweek, the Pound then retreated. The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) latest distributive trades survey came in worse than expected, while rising energy bills raised cost-of-living concerns.

With UK data thin through the latter part of the week, Sterling moved without a clear direction.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stumbled at the start of the week after New Zealand reported a surprise contraction in retail sales in the second quarter.

The risk-sensitive ‘Kiwi’ faced further pressure as the week went on, with a risk-off mood and domestic political uncertainty both pressuring the currency.

However, an improving market mood helped the New Zealand Dollar regain ground through the second half of the week.

Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: RBNZ Rate Hike to Lift the ‘Kiwi’? Looking ahead, the focus for NZD investors this week will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision during Wednesday’s Asian trading session. A rate hike from the central bank could boost the ‘Kiwi’.

The New Zealand Dollar could then trim its gains on Thursday night, if the latest ANZ consumer confidence index shows a deterioration in morale in August.

As for the Pound, the UK’s final services PMI could influence Sterling on Thursday. If it confirms an improvement in activity in August, the British currency could climb.

A speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey could then affect GBP on Friday, with the Pound potentially struggling if the BoE chief remains cautious about the need for further rate hikes.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold drops to $4,397: Rebound to $4600 or further drop to $4,200?