Gold (XAU/USD) trades in a narrow range on Tuesday, with bulls defending the $4,000 psychological mark as traders await the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due at 12:30 GMT, and closely monitor the fragile situation in the Middle East.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,020, up nearly 0.45% on the day after touching a two-week low of $3,983 earlier in the Asian session.
Headline CPI is expected to ease to 3.8% YoY from 4.2% in May, while the monthly reading is forecast to decline 0.1% after rising 0.5%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, broadly matching May’s readings.
“If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 40% chance of a rate hike at the July meeting, up from 26% a week ago, while the probability of a September hike has risen to 74%.
Later in the American session, traders will turn their attention to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony. Speeches from Fed officials Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee and Lisa Cook will also be closely watched.
Renewed tensions between the US and Iran have pushed crude Oil prices to a one-month high. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $80.00, up around 12% so far this week.
The US carried out strikes against Iran for a third consecutive night on Monday. US President Donald Trump also said he was reinstating a naval blockade on Iran, which will take effect at 20:00 GMT on Tuesday. Trump added that other countries could continue using the Strait of Hormuz but would face a 20% security fee.
Iran's top joint military command said the US had no role in determining the future of Hormuz and would not be allowed to intervene in the strait.
The latest escalation has shifted attention back to the inflationary impact of rising Oil prices. With markets expecting the Fed to raise interest rates later this year, Gold’s near-term bias remains bearish.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD attempts to stabilize within a bearish setup
On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias, trading below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
Gold is attempting to stabilize above the $4,000 psychological mark, but momentum remains weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 39, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains modestly positive, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing but does not yet indicate a clear bullish reversal.
On the upside, initial resistance is at $4,200, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,331. The 200-day SMA at $4,495 and the 100-day SMA at $4,570 represent stronger barriers and reinforce the broader bearish structure.
Immediate support is located at the round $4,000 mark. A sustained break below this level could trigger renewed selling pressure, while Gold would need to reclaim $4,200 to ease the current bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
The AUD/USD pair trades 0.35% higher to near 0.6945 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its peers ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 101.16.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.19%-0.13%-0.32%-0.31%-0.84%-0.29%EUR0.11%-0.09%0.00%-0.19%-0.21%-0.73%-0.17%GBP0.19%0.09%0.09%-0.11%-0.10%-0.64%-0.09%JPY0.13%0.00%-0.09%-0.18%-0.20%-0.73%-0.18%CAD0.32%0.19%0.11%0.18%-0.01%-0.52%0.03%AUD0.31%0.21%0.10%0.20%0.00%-0.53%0.05%NZD0.84%0.73%0.64%0.73%0.52%0.53%0.56%CHF0.29%0.17%0.09%0.18%-0.03%-0.05%-0.56% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Market participants will pay close attention to the inflation data as the latest comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have signaled that they are more concerned about high inflation than subdued job market conditions.
On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that another hot inflation figure would be a “signal”, not a noise, about the need to tighten monetary conditions further.
According to estimates, the US headline CPI growth cooled down to 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) in June from 4.2% in May, with core figures rising steadily by 2.9%. On a monthly basis, the headline inflation is seen declining by 0.1%, while core figures are estimated to have remained steady at 0.2%.
Meanwhile, upbeat China’s Trade Balance data has strengthened the Australian Dollar (AUD), which showed that trade surplus widened by USD125.62 billion against +USD121 billion estimates and the previous reading of +USD105.43 billion.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6943 at press time. However, the near-term tone of the pair remains bearish as spot remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 0.6957. The pair’s inability to recover this short-term EMA hints at persistent overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 44 keeps momentum mildly negative without reaching oversold territory, suggesting sellers retain control but lack strong conviction.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 0.6957, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias. The pair could extend the recovery towards the June 23 high at 0.7006 if the pair breaks above the EMA. Looking down, the pair could slide towards the January 7 high of 0.6766 if it drops below the March low of 0.6904.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Trade Balance USD The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.
Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have once again pushed crude oil prices higher, providing further support for the US dollar. The greenback has performed particularly well against lower-yielding currencies, such as the Swiss franc, as investors seek both safety and higher returns while reassessing the inflation outlook. Although the euro has held up better than some of its peers, thanks to expectations that the European Central Bank may have to tighten its policy further, the balance of risks remain for the downside. If oil prices continue climbing, energy costs are likely to become a more powerful driver of FX markets than interest rate differentials, leaving the EUR/USD forecast increasingly bearish.
Oil-driven inflation fears revive the dollar Following that weak US jobs report, the dollar lost some momentum but it had now regained it as markets begin to price in the growing risk that renewed disruptions in the Gulf could tighten global energy supplies. Brent crude has climbed to around $87 a barrel, but current pricing still suggests investors are not fully convinced a major supply shock is imminent.
That leaves scope for both oil and the dollar to extend their gains should tensions escalate further. If you recall, oil prices reached north of $110 at the height of the crisis a few months ago, and spent majority of that time around the $100 level.
But unlike earlier in the year, the Fed is now not offering any forward guidance following its hawkish shift in June. That has encouraged markets to speculate more freely about additional policy tightening, with traders now assigning a meaningful probability to a rate increase before the end of the summer.
Warch or CPI unlikely to cause fireworks Attention now turns to Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress, although he is expected to maintain his preference for avoiding strong policy signals. Several other Fed officials are also due to speak, while the latest US inflation figures could reinforce expectations that policymakers may have to tighten policy. Even if headline inflation eases because of earlier declines in energy prices, sticky core inflation is unlikely to provide much reassurance. What’s more, the latest upsurge in oil prices will shift inflation expectations higher for the coming months.
So, markets may not pay too much attention to a small miss in CPI, if we get one. Anyway, the headline figure is expected to print 3.8% year-on-year for June, down from 4.2% in May. Core CPI is seen easing modestly to 2.8% from 2.9%.
Euro supported by yields, but energy remains a headwind The euro has avoided sharper losses largely because eurozone bond yields have risen alongside US Treasury yields, preventing a significant widening in transatlantic rate differentials.
Markets continue to expect further ECB tightening this year, although policymakers have adopted a more cautious tone recently. That leaves limited room for expectations to become significantly more hawkish from here.
Meanwhile, the outlook for Europe is becoming increasingly complicated by higher energy prices. Rising natural gas costs pose a much greater challenge for the eurozone economy than for the United States. Should Brent crude climb towards the $100 area, the negative impact on Europe’s economy could easily outweigh any support generated by higher ECB rates, increasing the likelihood of a deeper EUR/USD decline.
Technical EUR/USD forecast: Bearish pattern points to further weakness The technical picture also continues to favour the bears. The EUR/USD remains confined within a bearish flag formation following its recent correction. A decisive break beneath the lower boundary of that pattern would strengthen the case for another leg lower, initially exposing the recent swing low around 1.1324.
Source: TradingView.com Below there, the 1.1300 area becomes the next key objective for the EURUSD chart. That level also coincides with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the March-to-April rally, making it an important technical support zone.
Given the combination of rising energy prices, improving dollar sentiment and the prospect of further Fed tightening, rallies may continue to attract sellers.
On the upside, initial resistance is located around 1.1450, with a stronger barrier between 1.1480 and 1.1500.
With the eurozone economic calendar relatively light in the days ahead, the EUR/USD forecast is tilted to the downside. The pair is likely to remain driven primarily by developments in oil markets, geopolitical headlines and evolving expectations for US monetary policy rather than domestic European data.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is up 0.5% to near $4,020 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) corrects ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.12%-0.21%-0.15%-0.44%-0.42%-0.91%-0.30%EUR0.12%-0.09%-0.04%-0.32%-0.31%-0.76%-0.17%GBP0.21%0.09%0.07%-0.21%-0.19%-0.69%-0.07%JPY0.15%0.04%-0.07%-0.28%-0.28%-0.78%-0.17%CAD0.44%0.32%0.21%0.28%0.00%-0.47%0.14%AUD0.42%0.31%0.19%0.28%-0.01%-0.48%0.14%NZD0.91%0.76%0.69%0.78%0.47%0.48%0.62%CHF0.30%0.17%0.07%0.17%-0.14%-0.14%-0.62% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.18% lower to near 101.10.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Gold price an attractive bet for investors.
Investors will closely track the US CPI data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting showed that policymakers see high inflation as a “dominant risk”.
The US headline CPI is expected to arrive lower at 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 4.2% in May, with core figures growing steadily by 2.9%.
Meanwhile, surging oil prices due to ongoing military attacks between the US and Iran have de-anchored global inflation expectations, a scenario that forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions, which is unfavorable for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades slightly higher at around $4,020 at press time. However, the precious metal reflects a bearish near-term bias as spot remains below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,126.07. The positioning under this key EMA suggests that rallies are still being capped by overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 hints at subdued but stabilizing downside momentum rather than aggressive selling.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,126.07, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease current bearish pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery. Looking up, the July 6 high at $4,202.61 will be the key barrier. On the downside, the Gold price could be exposed to a fresh downside leg if it drops below the June low at $3,941.76. The October 28 low at $3,886.62 will be a key support level, followed by the September 21 low at $3,717.51.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EUR/GBP has slid to its weakest level in a year, as the two currencies continue to follow increasingly divergent paths. The ECB's June hike—its first since 2023—was meant to signal renewed hawkishness, but the very next inflation print undercut that narrative: price growth cooled from 3.2% to 2.8%, enough for markets to now assign an 88% probability that policymakers will simply hold steady at their July 23 meeting.
An unfavourable background is weighing on gold prices. The Fed has not ruled out a July rate hike. The US dollar posted its best day in three weeks on rumours of a US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East enabled Brent to post its best daily percentage growth since 2020. This provided support for the greenback as a safe-haven asset and the currency of a net exporter of energy commodities. All the more so as the Fed may raise rates as early as its next meeting.
Christopher Waller spoke on this matter. The official expressed concerns about an acceleration in core inflation. If this is evident from the June consumer price report, the Fed should tighten monetary policy in July. The hawkish speech has raised the probability of two rate hikes in 2026 to 58% and the odds of a rate rise later this month to 43%. As a result, the US dollar has strengthened, and Treasury bond yields have risen.
This backdrop is unfavourable for gold. It does not pay interest and is therefore unable to compete with assets that do so in a rising-interest-rate environment. At the same time, the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal in ETFs is rising, and capital outflows from specialised funds are contributing to the peak in gold prices.
Gold recorded its second-worst daily fall of 2026 on Monday. Its losses since the start of the year have exceeded 7%. Optimists, including State Street Investment Management, believe that Asian demand for the physical asset remains stable. That said, a price drop to $3,900 per ounce would trigger a rally, allowing the precious metal to find its bottom.
In reality, the fate of Gold lies in the hands of geopolitics and the US consumer price index report. Signs of accelerating core inflation in June would give the Fed grounds to raise interest rates as early as July, further strengthening the US dollar and pushing up yields on US Treasury bonds.
Keep an eye on Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress, as the new Fed Chair has already sent shockwaves through the financial markets twice since taking office. His hawkish rhetoric at the press conference following the June FOMC meeting and his vague comments at the ECB symposium in Sintra sent gold on a roller coaster ride.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.08 per troy ounce, up 0.76% from the $57.65 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 18.29% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.20 on Tuesday, down from 69.42 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The British Pound (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday to trim previous losses and return to the 1.3375 area, aiming to retest resistance at the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is a popular indicator, which lies a few pips below 1.3400 and has been capping Pound’s recovery over the last two weeks.
Markets are hesitant on Tuesday with the US Dollar a tad lower as investors await the release of US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figures, which are expected to show a slight moderation in prices, yet at levels well above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% rate. After that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will face the first of the two hearings before the US Congress scheduled for this week.
The Pound has been holding a positive trend since Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned in late June. Investors are confident that Andrew Burnham, the best-positioned candidate to replace him, will respect Chancellor Reeves' fiscal rules.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the 1.3400 area
GBP/USD trades at 1.3378. The pair broke the downtrend resistance line from May highs but remains capped below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3397. Momentum indicators in the daily chart are neutral-to-bullish with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just above 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory.
The mentioned 200-day SMA around 1.3397, however, is likely to be a tough nut to crack. If that level is broken, the June 15 and July 10 high, near 1.3455, will be targeted. On the downside, the floor of the last two weeks' trading range, at 1.3330, is likely to challenge bears. Further down, the broken trendline, now at 1.3290, and the June 22 and 30 highs around 1.3270 emerge as the next targets.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.18%-0.26%-0.18%-0.52%-0.50%-0.97%-0.35%EUR0.18%-0.08%0.02%-0.35%-0.33%-0.79%-0.17%GBP0.26%0.08%0.11%-0.25%-0.23%-0.71%-0.09%JPY0.18%-0.02%-0.11%-0.35%-0.35%-0.82%-0.21%CAD0.52%0.35%0.25%0.35%0.00%-0.45%0.17%AUD0.50%0.33%0.23%0.35%-0.01%-0.47%0.18%NZD0.97%0.79%0.71%0.82%0.45%0.47%0.62%CHF0.35%0.17%0.09%0.21%-0.17%-0.18%-0.62% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The USD/JPY halted its bullish trend and moved sideways, struggling to breach the 163.00 level despite escalating US-Iran tensions The pair flatlined as simultaneous safe-haven demand for both the greenback and the yen created an evenly matched tug-of-war Spiking crude oil prices fueled expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike, capping further dollar gains The USD/JPY currency pair saw a big jump from early May to early July 2026, hitting highs not seen in years, over 162. But lately, it’s been trading in a small range, getting stuck near the 163.00 mark. This quiet period comes as new military clashes between the US and Iran have sent oil prices up.
Why Isn’t Geopolitical Risk Pushing It Higher? This is the puzzle. The dollar went up against the yen for four days straight because of the fighting in the Middle East, but it couldn’t get past last week’s high of 162.40. Oil markets, however, reacted much more strongly.
Oil prices, which had gone back to where they were before the conflict after a note in mid-June, are now about 9% higher than before the US and Israel first struck Iran in late February. This happened after new US strikes aimed at weakening Iran’s ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The contrarian behaviour comes down to a tug-of-war between two competing forces. On one side, when people get worried about risk and flock to safe places, it usually helps the dollar because it’s seen as a safe haven.
But on the other side, the yen is also a traditional safe haven currency, and increased risk in the Middle East tends to make people buy yen too. Since both currencies are getting safe-haven money at the same time, they’re basically canceling each other out.
On top of that, there’s the risk of intervention. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has a pattern where they talk tough, then check interest rates, and finally intervene directly. They’ve already gone through the first steps of this, which is making currency traders hesitant to push the pair much higher than 163.00.
How the Current Setup Impacts USD/JPY Outlook The interest rate gap between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is a primary factor supporting the dollar. The Fed’s approach, influenced by inflation worries, contrasts with the Bank of Japan’s gradual policy adjustments. This difference in policy encourages carry trades that favor the dollar against the yen over the medium term.
Continued dollar strength is underpinned by the interest rate differential. Recent US Consumer Price Index data for June 2026, at 3.2%, exceeded forecasts, making an imminent Fed rate cut less probable. This contrasts sharply with the Bank of Japan, which has maintained its policy rate close to zero.
This policy divergence suggests a potential for sustained yen weakness. However, in the short term, the 163.00 level appears to be a cap on USD/JPY’s upward movement. Significant changes, such as a de-escalation of Middle East tensions, an unexpected policy shift from the Bank of Japan, or direct currency intervention by Japan, would be needed to overcome this resistance.
Forex market participants should trade this currency pair with careful consideration. Those holding long positions may want to secure profits near resistance levels or implement trailing stop-loss orders. For traders considering new positions, looking for clear breakouts or pullbacks to support areas might present more favorable risk-reward opportunities.
Why has USD/JPY shown sideways movement recently?
While military strikes between the US and Iran have driven up oil prices, concerns about potential Japanese currency intervention and Japan’s reliance on energy imports have limited gains above the 163.00 mark.
How do geopolitical events affect this pair?
Geopolitical tensions support the dollar as safe-haven but raise oil prices, pressuring Japan’s economy and prompting potential BOJ actions.
What major downside risk is keeping bullish USD/JPY traders from aggressively buying the currency pair at current levels?
Traders are highly fearful of direct market intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance to artificially strengthen the yen from historic lows.
XAG/USD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around $58.10 per troy ounce during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the spot price is remaining within the descending channel pattern. As long as the price continues to fluctuate within the parallel, downward-sloping trendlines, sellers remain firmly in control of the market momentum.
The XAG/USD pair is extending its decline below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which keeps the metal under firm bearish pressure. The clustering of short- and medium-term EMAs above price suggests rallies remain corrective within a broader downtrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.04 holds below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside bias rather than outright oversold stress.
The XAG/USD pair may target the immediate support at the seven-month low of $55.63, which was recorded on June 24. Further declines would put downward pressure on the XAG/USD pair to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel around $46.90.
On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of $59.37, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around $60.60. A break above the channel would support the XAG/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at $66.63.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The USD/JPY pair remains on the back foot through the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Intervention risks support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for spot prices amid a softer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, remain close to a four-decade high, touched earlier this month, as traders await US consumer inflation figures and Federal Reserve's (Fed) Kevin Warsh's inaugural congressional testimony.
In the meantime, the persistently wide interest rate gap between Japan and other major economies, including the US, continues to undermine the JPY amid economic concerns stemming from the Middle East crisis. Furthermore, escalating US-Iran tensions and firming Fed hike expectations, amid renewed inflation fears due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, help limit the USD losses and warrant some caution before placing bearish bets on the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices remain confined between two converging trend lines, forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. Against the backdrop of a strong rally from the May monthly swing low, the said triangle might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase before the next leg up. Furthermore, a corrective pullback earlier this month showed resilience below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators are relatively muted. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 52, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is fractionally positive near the zero line, hinting at a cautious upside tone rather than an impulsive rally. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a breakout through the triangle resistance, near 162.55-162.60, before positioning for any further appreciation for the USD/JPY pair.
On the downside, the latest close at 162.10-162.00 forms initial intraday support, ahead of the rising trend-line floor at 161.60 and the 200-period EMA clustered near 161.15. A convincing break and acceptance below the latter would be needed to signal a deeper corrective phase in the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the broader technical setup suggests that the uptrend is still intact despite the latest consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.20%-0.15%-0.45%-0.35%-0.83%-0.27%EUR0.16%-0.03%0.04%-0.29%-0.18%-0.66%-0.10%GBP0.20%0.03%0.07%-0.24%-0.13%-0.63%-0.06%JPY0.15%-0.04%-0.07%-0.31%-0.23%-0.71%-0.16%CAD0.45%0.29%0.24%0.31%0.09%-0.38%0.17%AUD0.35%0.18%0.13%0.23%-0.09%-0.48%0.10%NZD0.83%0.66%0.63%0.71%0.38%0.48%0.56%CHF0.27%0.10%0.06%0.16%-0.17%-0.10%-0.56% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) is trading practically flat against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Tuesday, consolidating gains after a 0.7% rally on Monday, boosted by rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish Comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller.
Waller said on Monday that the Fed would have to tighten its monetary policy in the near-term if inflation remains above the 2% target. Investors brought forward rate hike bets, following Waller's comments, and sent the US Dollar higher across the board.
The focus on Tuesday is on June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is highly likely to confirm Waller’s expectations with figures well beyond target. These data are likely to frame the first session of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress, which is due later on the day. The risk is skewed to the upside for the US Dollar.
Technical Anañysis: The next bullish target is the 0.8170 area
USD/CHF broke the year-to-date high at 0.8130, confirming that the corrective reaction of the last two weeks has been completed, with the impulsive candle on the daily chart suggesting that bulls have taken control. Momentum indicators support this view, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in positive territory without yet reaching extreme overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line attempting to cross the Signal line, which is a bullish sign.
Immediate resistance is at the mentioned high, at 0.8150, although the confluence of the July 2025 top and the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late June-early July reversal, at 0.8170, seems a more plausible target. Further up, the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned cycle is at 0.8210.
A confirmation below the previous YTD high, in the 0.8130 area, is likely to find support at the 0.8070-0.8080 area, where the bottom of the ascending channel from early June lows meets Monday's lows. Below here, bullish momentum would fade, and the July 2 low, near 0.8010, would return to the focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.04%0.23%0.36%-0.39%0.10%-0.55%0.69%EUR-0.04%0.18%0.33%-0.44%0.01%-0.60%0.65%GBP-0.23%-0.18%0.11%-0.61%-0.17%-0.77%0.51%JPY-0.36%-0.33%-0.11%-0.82%-0.26%-0.95%0.28%CAD0.39%0.44%0.61%0.82%0.57%-0.12%1.13%AUD-0.10%-0.01%0.17%0.26%-0.57%-0.61%0.54%NZD0.55%0.60%0.77%0.95%0.12%0.61%1.30%CHF-0.69%-0.65%-0.51%-0.28%-1.13%-0.54%-1.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Euro (EUR) trades slightly higher to near 1.1395 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar corrects ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% lower to near 101.15.
Investors will closely track the US inflation data, as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting showed that policymakers see high inflation as a “dominant risk”. On Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller also warned of tight monetary conditions in the near-term if inflation figures come higher again.
"I don’t take the inflationary signals I have discussed today lightly. If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term," Waller said, Reuters report.
According to estimates, the US headline CPI growth cooled down to 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) in June from 4.2% in May, with core figures rising steadily by 2.9%. On a monthly basis, the headline inflation is seen declining by 0.1%, while core figures are estimated to have remained steady at 0.2%.
Later in the day, investors will also focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress. Warsh is unlikely to provide cues regarding the US interest rate outlook, as he clarified in June’s policy press conference that forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture.
On the Euro front, investors seek fresh cues regarding whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates again this year. Analysts at MUFG expect the ECB to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in the September meeting. The ECB also raised its key rates in the June policy meeting and guided to remain data-dependent going forward.
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped at the start of the week as renewed tensions in the Middle East briefly boosted demand for the safe-haven US Dollar before Sterling recovered some ground.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3391, having rebounded from an overnight low of $1.3369.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.337846 (-0.20%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.13997 (-0.13%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.32053 (+0.38%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) initially rose as this week’s trade began, following fresh clashes in the Middle East.
Although fighting briefly subsided on Friday, tensions flared again over the weekend after Iran targeted a container vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. The US responded with strikes against Iranian positions, prompting Tehran to retaliate by launching attacks on US-aligned Gulf states.
Investors are becoming increasingly wary that the conflict could escalate further, dampening hopes that the two sides could negotiate a lasting peace agreement.
A risk-off mood as trade began on Monday lifted the safe-haven US Dollar, although USD struggled to hold its gains as market risk sentiment showed some resilience.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) traded without clear direction on Monday as the absence of any notable UK economic releases offered investors little impetus.
However, Sterling managed to limit losses against the US Dollar, supported by continued optimism over the UK's political outlook. Investors remained hopeful that the prolonged period of political uncertainty weighing on the Pound was beginning to fade.
This helped GBP recoup some of its initial losses against USD.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Inflation to Dent the US Dollar? Looking forward, the ‘Greenback’ could face headwinds on Tuesday with the publication of the latest US consumer price index.
Markets expect inflation to have cooled from 4.2% in May to 3.8% in June. If the CPI prints as forecast, USD could come under pressure.
However, events in the Middle East are also likely to drive movement. The ‘Greenback’ could enjoy safe-haven flows if tensions remain fraught.
Meanwhile, GBP investors will focus on a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday.
Bailey has recently maintained a measured stance, suggesting policymakers should monitor inflation developments before making any changes to interest rates. However, with renewed US-Iran tensions pushing global energy prices higher, Sterling could strengthen if his remarks signal a firmer commitment to keeping monetary policy restrictive.
Only a week after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested lower oil prices would help ease inflation, one of its most senior policymakers is already questioning that assumption. Chief Economist Paul Conway’s latest remarks have given the New Zealand Dollar another boost, as investors conclude that the recent rebound in energy prices could require the RBNZ to tighten policy further than markets anticipated just days ago. That shift is now pushing AUD/NZD toward the neckline of an important double top, with the cross reflecting diverging monetary policy paths on either side of the Tasman.
Conway’s speech, “Finding Signal in the Inflation Noise“, acknowledged that falling oil prices had initially eased near-term inflation pressures. However, he argued the recent resurgence in Middle East tensions has delivered “another significant inflation shock” and warned that inflation may not slow as quickly as the RBNZ’s own forecasts suggest.
More importantly, he pointed to structural changes in New Zealand’s pricing behavior. New research from the central bank indicates businesses are passing higher costs through to consumers more readily than in the past while proving less willing to reverse those increases when costs decline. If that behavior alters inflation expectations, Conway said, “monetary policy may need to respond more firmly to re-anchor inflation expectations,” while cautioning that well-anchored expectations “cannot be taken for granted.”
Markets responded by bringing forward expectations for further tightening. Overnight index swaps now imply the Official Cash Rate rising from current 2.50% to around 3.0% by December, with another increase expected early next year. That marks a notable shift from the narrative surrounding last week’s policy decision, when lower fuel prices had encouraged expectations that the RBNZ could move only gradually after delivering its first rate hike in three years. The rebound in oil prices has quickly forced investors to reassess that outlook.
The implications are particularly clear in AUD/NZD. While the Reserve Bank of Australia has already delivered three rate hikes this year and is widely expected to adopt a slower, more measured pace, the RBNZ is viewed as having more ground to make up. That narrowing policy gap provides a strong fundamental backdrop for continued New Zealand Dollar outperformance.
The technical picture is beginning to reinforce that macro story. AUD/NZD has already shown signs that the five-wave rally from 1.0649 has run its course, with bearish divergence emerging on D MACD. Focus is now squarely on the 1.1970 neckline. A decisive break would confirm a double top at 1.2283 and 1.2256, opening the way toward 38.2% retracement of 1.0649 to 1.2283 at 1.1659.
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USD/JPY ended Tuesday at 162.27, with the Japanese yen remaining near 40-year lows. Pressure on the currency persists, as Japanese authorities have yet to carry out fresh interventions to support the exchange rate.
The yen fell sharply on Monday following reports from Reuters that Japanese authorities do not plan to change the asset structure of the state pension fund in the near future, reducing expectations of additional support for the domestic financial market.
Later, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that the country’s largest pension fund could adjust its investment structure if necessary. She also proposed including government bonds in a tax-free investment programme for private investors to boost interest in domestic assets.
Additional pressure on the yen came from a strengthening US dollar and a fresh surge in oil prices. The catalyst was US President Donald Trump’s decision to restore the blockade of Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, along with his call for countries that benefit from the security of this strategic route to compensate Washington for its protection costs.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 162.22 level, currently extending up to 162.46. A decline leg to the 162.22 level (testing from above) is expected today, followed by further growth to 163.30, with the prospect of the trend continuing to 164.15. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above the zero level and pointing strictly upwards.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed a downward wave pattern to the 162.22 level. A wave extension to 162.00 cannot be ruled out. Thereafter, the start of a growth wave to at least 163.30 is expected. A breakout above this level would open potential for a continuation of the growth wave to 164.15. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the 50 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20, indicating short-term downward pressure before a potential reversal.
Conclusion USD/JPY remains elevated, with the yen stuck near 40-year lows as markets await concrete action from Japanese authorities. The currency weakened further following reports that the state pension fund will not change its asset structure imminently, although Finance Minister Katayama later left the door open for adjustments. Meanwhile, renewed US naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s demand for compensation from allies have pushed oil prices higher, adding to dollar strength. Technical indicators suggest the pair may see a modest pullback before resuming its upward trajectory towards 163.30 and possibly 164.15, with intervention risks remaining the key wildcard for yen bulls.
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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades higher against its major currency peers, except antipodeans, during the European trading session on Tuesday. The USD/CAD pair declines 0.25% to near 1.4120 at the time of writing as the Loonie gains amid improvement in the appeal of currencies from economies, such as Canada, which are net Oil exporters.
The United States (US) economy is also a net energy exporter, but the US Dollar faces selling pressure ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June release at 12:30 GMT.
At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 2.73% higher to near $80.00, the highest level seen in almost a month. Oil prices have increased significantly as US President Donald Trump claims that Washington is the rightful recipient of toll fees near the Strait of Hormuz.
On the domestic front, investors await the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy announcement due on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. Investors will pay attention to comments regarding the outlook on inflation and the economy.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 101.18.
USD/CAD technical analysis
Bias: USD/CAD trades lower at around 1.4120, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as it remains capped by the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.4136.
Momentum: Price action sits just under this dynamic resistance, hinting at a consolidation phase after the recent pullback, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 on the daily chart suggests neutral momentum rather than strong directional conviction.
Resistance: On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 1.4136, and a daily close above this barrier would ease current downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery. Looking up, the major barrier would be the yearly high at around 1.4248.
Support: On the downside, the pair could extend its decline towards the June 18 low at 1.4095; below that, the downside momentum could accelerate, and the pair could fall towards the psychological level of 1.4000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Gold has dropped toward 4000 as renewed US–Iran tensions pushed Oil sharply higher, reviving inflation concerns and lifting US yields. Fed Governor Waller’s hawkish comments add pressure, making the near-term environment challenging if Oil and yields stay elevated. However, a pullback in Oil or softer United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) could help Gold stabilise, with support at 3940/60 and resistance near 4110.
Gold pressured by oil and yields"Gold fell close to 4000 as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices sharply higher. The oil spike had revived inflation concerns, lifted Treasury yields and reinforced Fed tightening expectations."
"To add, Fed’s Waller added to the hawkish rhetoric, saying that FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term if inflation gets another hot reading this week."
"This puts focus on US CPI data and on Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony to House Financial Services committee tonight. Near term environment for gold remains challenging if oil prices remain elevated and yields continue to rise."
"Conversely, a pullback in oil or a softer US CPI could help gold stabilise."
"Gold last seen at 4004 levels. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside for now. Support at 3940/60 levels (recent low in Jun). Resistance at 4110 (21 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EURUSD (The euro) continues to retreat after failing to break back above the recent high, which saw prices push towards a fresh peak.
The pair bounced off the support zone at 1.1380 as the RSI bounced away from the oversold region. Further resistance at the 1.1460 region would send the euro lower, breaking the previous support zone. A successful bounce and a close below 1.1380 would commit more sellers and push the pair towards 1.1300.
NZDUSD tests key resistance area
The New Zealand dollar attempts to continue its progression as the pair jumps over 100 pips in recent sessions.
The price was moving towards the previous swing high at 0.5800, which, if broken, opens another 50-pip jump. Still, the recent bounce could be a sign of bearish pressure building since the market open. A decisive break below 0.5700 would force the remaining buyers out and open the door to a test at the previous swing low of 0.5660. US30 recapturing the recent high
The Dow steadies as traders await more news of a jump in tech stocks, and then the next step in the Middle Eastern conflcit.
A close above the daily resistance of 53000 would help bulls regain control of the direction. A confirmation past this level would lead to the index gearing up for another attempt at a record high above 53400. The recent dip at 52200 is the first support, and 51600 is the bulls’ second layer of defence. Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD gapped lower, dropping to 1.3343 and closing at 1.3346 as the Dollar firmed. Short‑term momentum has cooled, but they still see scope for a dip toward 1.3320, while the broader view has turned neutral, with Sterling expected to trade between 1.3320 and 1.3445 in coming sessions.
Sterling shifts to neutral range view"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP closed at 1.3402 last Friday, but it gapped lower on the open yesterday. When it was at 1.3375, we indicated that “the rapid increase in momentum suggests GBP could break below 1.3360.” We also indicated that “the next support at 1.3340 is likely out of reach.” We were not wrong, as GBP broke below 1.3360 and dropped to a low of 1.3343. Despite the decline, downward momentum has not increased significantly. However, there is scope for GBP to dip below 1.3340 and test 1.3320. Based on the prevailing momentum, a clear break below 1.3320 appears unlikely. To keep the momentum going, GBP must hold below 1.3390, with minor resistance at 1.3375"
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (13 Jul, spot at 1.3375), we revised our view from positive to neutral. We highlighted that “the GBP advance from late last month has ended.” We added, “for the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range between 1.3320 and 1.3445.” While we did not quite expect the subsequent sharp decline to 1.3343, we will continue to hold the same view for now. Looking ahead, should GBP break below 1.3320, it could trigger a deeper pullback."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate slipped on Monday as renewed conflict between the US and Iran lifted oil prices and supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8931, down around 0.2% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.891014 (-0.36%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.611545 (-0.28%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41364 (-0.15%)
DAILY RECAP:
The crude-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) firmed on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered a rise in global oil prices.
After a lull in the fighting on Friday, hostilities between the US and Iran resumed on Sunday following an Iranian strike on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The US responded by attacking Iranian targets, with Tehran further retaliating by targeting US allies in neighbouring Gulf states.
Markets are growing increasingly concerned that the conflict could intensify further, limiting shipping in the region. As a result, oil prices rose around 4% at the open on Monday. Although crude trimmed some of these gains as the session went on, CAD remained supported.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) was mixed on Monday as a lack of UK economic data left the currency rudderless.
Sterling was able to avoid steep losses against the rising Canadian Dollar thanks to ongoing political optimism in the UK, with GBP investors remaining confident that the political uncertainty that has dogged the Pound over the past year was coming to an end.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: BoE Comments to Impact the Pound? Looking forward, Tuesday’s session starts with a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.
Bailey has stuck to a cautious tone in recent weeks, arguing that the bank ought to wait and see how inflation plays out before considering adjusting policy. However, with global energy prices rising amid renewed US-Iran tensions, the Pound could tick higher if the BoE chief strikes a more hawkish chord.
Meanwhile, oil price dynamics are likely to drive the ‘Loonie’. CAD could remain supported if crude continues to climb amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Gold and Silver have sold off as Middle East tensions lift Oil and reinforce concerns over persistent inflation and a tighter Federal Reserve policy path. They note Gold remains vulnerable around $4,000/oz, with upcoming US CPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony seen as key drivers for precious metals direction.
Precious metals under policy pressure"Gold fell sharply on Monday, with silver also under pressure, as renewed tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher. This is reinforcing concerns that inflation could remain elevated and keep the Federal Reserve on a tighter policy path."
"Higher US yields and a stronger dollar continue to weigh on precious metals."
"Gold remains vulnerable around the $4,000/oz level, with the market closely watching developments around the Strait of Hormuz and their implications for energy prices, inflation and interest rates."
"Attention now turns to US inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress this week. A stronger CPI print or hawkish Fed messaging would add pressure on gold and silver, while any signs that inflation risks are easing, or that the Fed is less inclined to tighten further, could help stabilise prices after the recent sell-off."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 0.75% to near $58 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal holds recovery move seen from below $57.00, earlier in the day, with investors awaiting the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Investors will closely track the US inflation data as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, released last week, showed that policymakers see high inflation as “dominant risk”.
On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller also said that another hot inflation figure would be “signal”, not a noise, about the need to tighten monetary conditions further.
According to estimates, the US headline CPI growth cooled down to 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) in June from 4.2% in May, with core figures rising steadily by 2.9%.
Signs of price pressure accelerating further would boost hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, a scenario that bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Later in the day, investors will also pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s first testimony before the US House Financial Services Committee.
On the geopolitical front, surging oil prices due to escalating aggression between the US and Iran, and Washington’s claim for toll fee from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz would limit the Silver price’s upside.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that EUR/USD slid to 1.1377 and closed at 1.1381, a two‑week low, as the Dollar strengthened ahead of United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI). While short‑term momentum has turned lower, they see limited scope for sustained losses, with 1.1360 and 1.1325 as key supports and range‑trading between 1.1360 and 1.1450 still the base case.
Euro pressured within defined range"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR opened with a slight gap down yesterday. When it was at 1.1395, we indicated that “while the increasing downward momentum suggests EUR could decline further, the major support at 1.1360 could be out of reach.” We noted that “there is another support level at 1.1375.” We added, “to sustain the downward momentum, EUR must hold below 1.1420.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. EUR popped to a high of 1.1445 before plummeting to a low of 1.1377. EUR closed on a soft note at 1.1381 (- 0.28%). While the bias remains on the downside today, downward momentum is not particularly strong after the rise to 1.1445. Overall, as long as EUR holds below 1.1415 (minor resistance is at 1.1400), there is a chance for EUR to drop below 1.1360. That said, a continued drop below this level appears unlikely. The major support at 1.1325 is also unlikely to come into view."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (09 Jul, spot at 1.1420), when we highlighted that EUR “has likely moved back into a range-trading phase, expected to be between 1.1360 and 1.1450.” Yesterday, EUR fell to a low of 1.1377. The slight increase in downward momentum is insufficient to indicate a sustained decline. EUR must close below 1.1360 before a move to 1.1325 can be expected. The likelihood of EUR closing below 1.1360 will remain intact as long as EUR holds below 1.1445."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EURUSD maintains an incomplete bearish sequence from the January 27, 2026 peak, leaving room for further downside. The projected target zone is defined by the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the January 27 high, which falls between 1.076 and 1.117. This extension range provides a precise technical framework for anticipating the next leg lower. In the near term, the cycle from the July 2, 2026 high has unfolded into a five‑swing decline, reinforcing the bearish bias and signaling additional weakness.
From the July 2 high, wave ((i)) concluded at 1.139 as a diagonal structure. A corrective rally in wave ((ii)) terminated at 1.146, after which the pair resumed its downward trajectory in wave ((iii)). The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) is unfolding as another five‑wave impulse. Within this structure, wave (i) ended at 1.138, while wave (ii) retraced to 1.145. These developments confirm that the decline remains active and incomplete. As long as the pivot at 1.147 holds, rally should fail in 3 or 7 swing and EURUSD is expected to continue pressing lower. A decisive break below the June 24 low at 1.1324 is required to eliminate the possibility of a double correction.
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British Pound strengthens above 1.3350 ahead of US CPI dataThe GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3360 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid fears of an escalating US-Iran conflict. The US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will take center stage later on Tuesday.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Washington was reinstating a naval blockade on Tehran and would ensure the Strait of Hormuz remained open for a fee following fresh exchanges of missile and drone strikes, per Reuters. The US military said that US forces completed new strikes on Iranian military targets, adding that more than 50,000 US service members are currently deployed across the Middle East. Read more...
British Pound Sterling buckles as Trump builds the Hormuz toll booth he swore would never existThe British Pound Sterling is spending Monday learning the difference between a recovery and a reprieve. GBP/USD opened the week flush against its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), probed the 1.3400 area through the Asian hours, and has been sold methodically ever since; the pair now changes hands at 1.3349, leaning on the 1.3350 shelf with the session low a few pips beneath.
Little of the damage is native to Sterling, because the Dollar is being bought against the entire major-currency board on two stories that landed within hours of each other. The first turns the world's most important Crude Oil chokepoint into a toll plaza; the second comes from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official who spent last year arguing for cuts and now warns about hikes. Read more...
The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to near 112.55 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some sellers against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after Reuters reported on Monday that Tokyo had no immediate plans to alter the asset allocation of its state pension funds, reducing expectations of near-term support for domestic assets.
Nonetheless, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the country’s massive pension fund would adjust its holdings if necessary, while also proposing the inclusion of government bonds in a tax-free investment program for individual investors.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a mildly bearish bias as it holds just beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price remains above the Bollinger middle band, suggesting some near-term demand, but the proximity of the upper band and the capping 100-day SMA reinforces a topside-constrained tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.81 sits near neutral, hinting at consolidative momentum rather than a clear directional drive.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.60, with a break exposing the Bollinger upper band near 113.40 as the next barrier. On the downside, initial support aligns with the Bollinger middle band at 112.30, ahead of a deeper cushion at the lower band around 111.25, where stronger buyers could attempt to reassert control if the current drift extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The NZD/USD pair catches aggressive bids during the Asian session on Tuesday and jumps to a nearly four-week top in the last hour amid a combination of supporting factors.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens as hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway raised the prospect of further interest rate hikes. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, pauses a two-day rally as bulls opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony. This, in turn, provides a goodish lift to the NZD/USD pair and backs the case for additional gains.
From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive with the line advancing above zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 57, hinting at improving momentum. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 0.5810-0.5820 confluence before placing fresh bullish bets.
The said area comprises the 50% retracement level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), above which the NZD/USD pair could aim to test the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.5853. The latter reinforces a broader cap ahead of 0.5914 and 0.5992. On the flip side, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 0.5767, ahead of the 23.6% level at 0.5714, while a deeper pullback would expose the recent swing low area near the 0.5628 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%-0.10%-0.10%-0.18%-0.19%-0.64%-0.12%EUR0.09%-0.01%0.00%-0.09%-0.11%-0.54%-0.03%GBP0.10%0.01%0.02%-0.06%-0.08%-0.53%-0.02%JPY0.10%0.00%-0.02%-0.08%-0.12%-0.56%-0.05%CAD0.18%0.09%0.06%0.08%-0.03%-0.46%0.05%AUD0.19%0.11%0.08%0.12%0.03%-0.43%0.09%NZD0.64%0.54%0.53%0.56%0.46%0.43%0.51%CHF0.12%0.03%0.02%0.05%-0.05%-0.09%-0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 474.62 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 472.49 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,535.82 per tola from AED 5,511.03 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
474.62
10 Grams
4,746.15
Tola
5,535.82
Troy Ounce
14,762.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,969.35 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,934.04 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,956.75 per tola from PHP 92,541.06 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,969.35
10 Grams
79,699.64
Tola
92,956.75
Troy Ounce
247,865.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 485.54 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 483.12 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,663.16 per tola from SAR 5,634.98 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
485.54
10 Grams
4,855.32
Tola
5,663.16
Troy Ounce
15,102.19
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold is finding itself squeezed by two markets moving in the same direction. Oil is rebuilding inflation fears, while the Federal Reserve is becoming more willing to tighten policy again if price pressures refuse to ease. Together, those forces have left the metal on the defensive, with the psychologically important $4,000 level looking increasingly fragile as investors await another pivotal US inflation report.
The latest catalyst came from both geopolitics and monetary policy. Brent crude briefly climbed above $85 after US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose shipping fees on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz and restore a blockade of Iranian ports, raising the prospect of higher energy costs and renewed supply disruptions. For Gold, the significance lies less in the conflict itself than in its impact on inflation expectations. Rising oil prices increase the risk that inflation remains elevated, making it harder for the Fed to justify keeping policy unchanged.
That concern was reinforced by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, whose comments represented a notable shift from one of the Committee’s more dovish voices. Waller said that “if we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term,” adding that another strong inflation reading would be “signal, not noise.” His remarks accelerated the repricing already underway in interest-rate markets. Fed funds futures now imply better than a 40% chance of a July rate hike, compared with roughly one-in-four a week ago, while the probability of a September increase has climbed to about 76%, up from 57%.
Even with those headwinds, Gold sellers have stopped short of forcing a decisive breakdown before today’s key events. Markets remain focused on the June CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony, which together could either validate or challenge the increasingly hawkish policy outlook. If inflation again surprises on the upside, the combination of stronger oil prices and a more hawkish Fed would present an even more difficult backdrop for precious metals.
The technical picture reflects that growing pressure. Gold continues to trade comfortably within a well-defined near term falling channel, leaving the decline from the record high of 5,598.38 firmly intact. The 4,000 psychological level has become the market’s immediate battleground.
Firm break of 3,942.23 low would resume the whole down trend from 5,598.38 record high. Next target will be 50% retracement of 1,614.60 (2022 low) to 5,598.38 at 3,606.49. Any recovery, meanwhile, is likely to be viewed as corrective while prices remain below 4,202.87.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview DXY holds $101.20, with the daily chart showing mixed candlestick retesting of the Fibonacci 0.618 level at $100.31 after a strong breakout from the $97.67 swing low. Bullish candles are making higher highs with the price staying above the 50-period EMA at $100.21, signaling buyers’ control.
The RSI, though still near neutral at 60, is biased to the upside. The volume profile is also showing $101.00 to 101.50 as the breakout zone. In the coming weeks, the technical analysis suggests a target near $103.09.
Since the price is holding above $100.31, the technical structure remains strongly bullish. As the chart is in an uptrend, the price is making higher highs and higher lows in a channel. My plan is to buy above $101.20 targeting $103.09, with a stop loss at $100.31.
Gold – Chart Gold is trading at $4,021 on the 4-hour timeframe. Green/red candles are attempting to re-test symmetrical triangle resistance around $4,091, while holding support near $3,959. That support represents a triple bottom formation. We’re seeing bullish rejection with longer wicks, as well as a series of higher lows, suggesting buyers are accumulating. RSI sits at 39 (neutral).
On the volume profile, there is a sizeable amount of buying activity from $4,000 to $4,091 as price continues to bounce within that zone. The 50-period EMA (in blue) is currently placed at $4,087 and is currently acting as resistance.
Price is neutral/bullish as we test the $4,091 level to try and set up higher lows. The overall downtrend is still present from $4,021 until $4,597. There is a confluence on the Fibonacci that provides support in the near-term. I would be interested in a long near $4,021 targeting $4,140. A stop will be placed below $4,091.
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 526.60 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 524.66 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,142.11 per tola from MYR 6,119.53 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
526.60
10 Grams
5,265.78
Tola
6,142.11
Troy Ounce
16,379.12
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,426.38 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,365.80 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 144,944.60 per tola from INR 144,232.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,426.38
10 Grams
124,268.30
Tola
144,944.60
Troy Ounce
386,504.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 184.90 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) after reports that Japanese officials had no imminent plans to change the asset allocations of their state pension funds, tempering expectations of near-term support for domestic assets.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government may consider a pension asset allocation tweak if the environment changes. Traders remain on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period middle line, which together underpin a modest bullish bias. Price is also well above the lower Bollinger band, while the upper band at 185.89 caps the immediate topside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.62 sits close to neutral, hinting at a consolidative tone with a slight upward tilt rather than strong directional momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the upper Bollinger band around 185.90, where a clear break would open the way for the June 17 high of 186.32, en route to the April 29 high of 187.42.
On the downside, nearby support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 184.85, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 184.75, with the lower band down at 183.65 acting as a more distant structural floor should corrective pressure deepen.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,092.99 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,915.95 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 420,996.20 per tola from PKR 418,916.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,092.99
10 Grams
360,941.10
Tola
420,996.20
Troy Ounce
1,122,616.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
AUD/USD edges higher after posting 0.5% losses in the previous day, trading around 0.6930 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair remaining within the descending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bearish bias.
The AUD/USD pair is holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains under both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is attempting to stabilise after recent losses, but the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 suggests only modest recovery momentum, hinting that any rebound may stay capped while price trades below these clustered moving-average barriers.
The AUD/USD pair may fall toward a nearly six-month low of 0.6833, recorded on March 30. Further declines would expose the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.6770.
On the upside, the AUD/USD is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6932, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around 0.6960. A break above the channel would cause a bullish emergence and support the pair to test the 50-day EMA of 0.7011.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.10%-0.13%-0.18%-0.17%-0.75%-0.16%EUR0.11%0.00%0.00%-0.07%-0.07%-0.63%-0.05%GBP0.10%-0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.05%-0.64%-0.05%JPY0.13%0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.07%-0.65%-0.07%CAD0.18%0.07%0.06%0.06%-0.01%-0.57%0.01%AUD0.17%0.07%0.05%0.07%0.00%-0.57%0.03%NZD0.75%0.63%0.64%0.65%0.57%0.57%0.59%CHF0.16%0.05%0.05%0.07%-0.01%-0.03%-0.59% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from a nearly two-week low, touched during the Asian session on Tuesday, and climbs back above the $4,000 psychological mark, though the upside potential seems limited. The US Dollar (USD) pauses following a strong two-day rally as bulls turn cautious ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor offering some support to the bullion. However, escalating US-Iran tensions, along with firming Fed rate-hike expectations, back the case for a further near-term USD appreciation and should cap the yellow metal.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be published later today and is expected to show a fall in the headline number amid a significant decline in gasoline prices during June. Meanwhile, the focus will be on the core CPI figures, which act as a primary gauge to track the underlying inflation trend. Furthermore, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's inaugural semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee will influence rate-hike bets. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding Gold.
In the meantime, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating US-Iran tensions lift Crude Oil prices to a nearly one-month high, reigniting inflation fears and raising prospects of higher-for-longer US interest rates. The US military launched a third straight night of strikes against Iran on Monday after US President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted US facilities in the region, while two UAE tankers were hit by Iranian cruise missiles in the strait. Traders were quick to price in geopolitical risk premiums, which favors the USD bulls.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Hence, any subsequent recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. The XAU/USD pair seems vulnerable to decline further toward retesting the year-to-date low, around the $3,943-$3,942 region, touched on June 30.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold’s bearish technical setup backs the case for the emergence of fresh sellersFrom a technical perspective, the precious metal stays well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and keeps the broader tone bearish within a descending channel. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally positive, hinting at fading downside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 remains below the neutral line and reinforces a still fragile recovery rather than a confirmed bullish turn.
Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to be sold into and remain capped near the $4,100 mark. A sustained strength above could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the Gold price to the channel resistance, around $4,221. Some follow-through buying should expose the 200-day SMA pivotal resistance around $4,495.01, which, if cleared, would negate the bearish bias. On the downside, key support sits around $3,761.01 at the parallel channel boundary, and a decisive move back toward that zone would reopen the path for a deeper slide.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver price (XAG/USD) loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around $57.60 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The price of the non-yielding white metal faces challenges as escalating Middle East tensions drive oil higher, stoking fears that energy-driven inflation will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates elevated.
Market expectations have shifted rapidly in response, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 51% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, compared to just a 23% chance that rates will stay on hold.
US President Donald Trump has reinstated a naval blockade targeting Iranian vessels and customers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously announcing that all other commercial cargo passing through the strategic waterway will be subject to a 20% reimbursement fee.
Market participants are awaiting two massive macroeconomic catalysts scheduled for Tuesday. The US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, where analysts anticipate a divergence between a 0.1% month-on-month decline in headline inflation and a sticky 0.3% increase in the core reading.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver highly anticipated congressional testimony, a session that traders will dissect word-by-word for hints on whether the central bank will validate the market's growing hawkishness.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.7990 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7972 and 6.7927 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure near $3,995 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends its downside as renewed US-Iran tensions keep inflationary pressures high. Traders await the release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh testifies later on Tuesday.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% reimbursement on all other cargo shipped through the waterway. Trump added that the US would keep up attacks on Iran, saying that “we’re going to hit them very hard tonight, and we’re going to hit them hard tomorrow.”
A reinstatement of the blockade on Iranian ports may prompt Tehran to step up attacks on ships seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could trigger energy-driven inflation concerns and force the Fed to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
The US CPI inflation data will be in the spotlight later in the day. Analysts expect the headline CPI to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. In case of a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The shared currency begins the week on a lower note, down 0.31% as risk aversion fueled flows towards the US Dollar amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. Also, hawkish comments by a Fed official underpinned US Treasury yields, suggesting markets expect the US central bank to raise rates. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1379 after reaching a high of 1.1445.
EUR/USD falls as Oil shock revives Fed tightening fearsThe strength of the US Dollar is the main reason the Euro is being battered. The positive correlation between the Greenback and Oil prices suggests that a rally in crude prices triggers a flight to safety in the foreign exchange market. Why? Because high energy prices fuel speculation that major central banks — including the Federal Reserve- might need to raise interest rates.
Alongside the challenging geopolitical environment, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that a high core inflation reading would prompt immediate consideration of a rate hike. Although he maintains a hawkish stance, he believes it's plausible inflation could hit the 2% target without increasing rates and mentioned that the labor market is nearer to the Fed’s maximum employment objective.
This triggered a jump in US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year T-note surging 6 basis points to 4.624%, indicating that investors are preparing for an imminent rate hike by the Fed.
Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the American currency against six other currencies, is up 0.32% at 101.28.
Money markets are pricing in nearly 42 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalBreaking news revealed that US CENTCOM announced at 16:45 ET that it began launching a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran. Iranian media reported that explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas and revealed that Iran’s army targeted US military facilities in Kuwait and a “hostile” US vessel with cruise missiles.
The US economic docket will feature the release of crucial US inflation data and the testimony of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh before the US Congress. Across the pond, the Eurozone schedule ill feature a speech by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
EUR/USD daily chartIn the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1385, keeping a bearish near-term bias as the pair holds beneath the clustered 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.1554 and within a downward parallel channel. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 37 stays in bearish territory, suggesting downside pressure persists while the price remains capped by the channel structure and the descending trend-line that was previously broken near 1.1600.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen near 1.1422, where the lower boundary of the current downward channel now sits above spot, followed by the grouped daily SMAs around 1.1554, which reinforce the broader cap. Further up, the channel top near 1.1596 and the prior trend-line break area at 1.1600 form a dense resistance band ahead of the horizontal barrier at 1.1849, while the absence of clearly defined support below the market leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to further weakness if selling resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Japanese yen volatility has returned as traders unwind record short positions ahead of US CPI. With USD/JPY testing major resistance below 163 and intervention risks lingering, futures positioning suggests gains may become harder to come by. Here are the key USD/JPY and AUD/JPY trade setups to watch.
View related analysis:
Yen Bears Capitulate, US Dollar Nearing Sentiment Extreme? | COT report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bounce Losing Steam Ahead of US CPI Gold Price Outlook: Bulls Weigh the Odds of Another Bounce Above $4,000 How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment Japanese Yen Short Covering Puts USD/JPY at a Critical Juncture Japanese Yen Volatility Returns Ahead of US CPI Volatility has perked up for the Japanese yen over the past few weeks, and it has cut both ways. A market-led selloff heading into the 2 July non-farm payrolls (NFP) report saw USD/JPY fall by as much as 200 pips before recouping those losses over the following four days. On Friday, USD/JPY fell more than 100 pips on reports that Japan's largest pension fund had been instructed to purchase domestic assets.
This is quite a significant development because it suggests Japan is exploring alternative ways of supporting the yen besides traditional currency intervention. It could prove a shrewd approach, allowing policymakers to avoid swimming against the tide while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance and US economic data continues to outperform.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Yen Gains May Be Harder to Come By I think the bigger takeaway is that easy gains on USD/JPY may be harder to come by, but that is not the same as saying the pair cannot move higher. The combination of traders remaining wary of potential intervention, alongside efforts to support the yen without directly intervening, could allow USD/JPY to grind higher while keeping volatility elevated. Put another way, the broader uptrend may remain intact, but traders should expect more frequent bouts of two-way price action.
With USD/JPY testing resistance ahead of today's US inflation report, traders are on high alert for either a bullish breakout or a sharp reversal. Markets continue to price in a hawkish Fed, so it may not take much of a downside CPI surprise to shake the market from these elevated levels, particularly as Japanese yen bears continue to capitulate in the futures market.
Japanese Yen Futures Positioning: USD/JPY COT Report I have been warning for several weeks about the potential sentiment extreme in Japanese yen futures. Gross short positions had climbed to record highs among both asset managers and large speculators, while long positions also edged higher despite the yen's persistent downtrend (USD/JPY uptrend). That pushed net-short exposure close to two-year highs for both groups of traders.
However, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed a clear reduction in bearish positioning last week. Gross short exposure was cut by a combined 48.8k contracts across both trader groups, falling 11.6% among large speculators and 12.7% among asset managers. Long positions increased only marginally, making this a story of short covering rather than fresh bullish conviction.
The conditions are not yet in place for a sustained yen rally, but if bearish traders continue heading for the exit, gains on USD/JPY may become harder to come by than they have been over recent months.
Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen The 1-hour chart shows a decent uptrend from Monday's low. Prices are testing the weekly R1 pivot point while remaining above their daily, weekly and monthly VWAPs. We could see an early breakout attempt during today's session towards the cycle highs, although traders should note the July VPOC at 162.69, which aligns with last week's high and could provide resistance.
Bulls may also want to tread carefully around the cycle highs and take note of the pre-NFP price action, as it could trigger another pre-emptive pullback. Even so, several support levels are clustered around 162, including the 2024 high, the weekly pivot point and Monday's VPOC.
It could then come down to the US inflation report to determine whether we see a meaningful breakout or a deeper pullback. While a hot CPI report could tempt bulls to push above 163, I suspect the bigger move may come from a softer-than-expected print. That could see USD/JPY rotate lower within its recent choppy range between 160 and 162.50.
Ultimately, I suspect CPI will need to surprise decisively to the upside for any breakout above 163 to prove sustainable.
Source: ICE, TradingView
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com
AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen Compared with USD/JPY, volatility remains lower on AUD/JPY. Yet it has caught my attention because it presents several clusters of support and resistance that could provide attractive trading setups. It also partially removes some of the event risk associated with the US inflation report.
The daily chart shows prices oscillating between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. Momentum has turned slightly lower from last week's high and monthly pivot point, while Monday's shooting star signals a failed attempt to retest Friday's doji high.
Even if prices spike above last week's high, the June VPOC sits at 113.09 and could provide resistance, followed by the May VPOC at 113.48. While 112 may offer initial support, a break below that level brings the 100-day EMA into focus, near the Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervention low.
Key Points:Gold’s safe-haven appeal remains weak as the Middle East conflict drives oil and inflation expectations higher, reinforcing tighter Federal Reserve policy expectations.Gold, silver, and mining stocks have resumed their decline after Friday’s corrective bounce, with silver showing particular weakness.A break below gold’s rising support line could accelerate losses toward new 2026 lows, especially while the U.S. dollar holds above its key breakout level.
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Gold, silver, and mining stocks declined once again in tune with my previous analyses.
The war reached its loudest point yet over the weekend, and gold fell into it once more. That much is now familiar. What matters today sits underneath the headlines, in the rate market, where the one thing that lifted gold last week is quietly being taken away.
Oil Spike Crushes Safe-Haven Narrative Go back ten days. A soft jobs report, 57,000 against more than a hundred thousand expected, pulled the odds of a September rate hike down toward half and handed gold its bounce off the lows. That was the whole of the rally. It was never about the war, and it was never about safe-haven demand. It was a rate story, a brief window where the market thought the Federal Reserve had room to ease. That window is closing.
The oil spike out of the Strait has pushed inflation expectations back up, and the market has priced a September hike back toward two thirds. The way one analyst framed it captures the shift: the weak payrolls number drained the rate-hike bets out of the market, and the re-closing of the Strait is putting them back. The reprieve that lifted gold is being revoked, and the metals are turning lower again.
Look at what the oil is doing to gold, because it cuts twice. Over the weekend, the United States struck Iran across three nights, hitting more than three hundred targets in a week, and Iran hit back at American bases in five Gulf states. Iran then declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. A year ago, that combination would have sent gold vertical. Instead, gold sold off, because the market no longer reads the Gulf as a reason to buy the metal. It reads it as a reason to buy oil, and higher oil means higher inflation, a firmer Fed, and a stronger dollar, which is the exact chain that has driven this decline. So the same conflict that denies gold a safe-haven bid also produces the oil that takes back its rally. The war works against gold from both ends now.
The price is doing what that backdrop demands. Gold has given back Friday’s bounce, silver is leading the way down, and the whole sector is rolling over together. Friday’s move up, when physical buyers stepped into the selloff and the mining stocks, and FCX reached the levels I had flagged, was the corrective pause I described it as. Today, the trend reasserts.
Please note that gold futures are holding at their rising support line based on July lows. Once this level is taken out, the decline is likely to accelerate. And then even more so once gold breaks to new 2026 lows, which could happen as early as this week (no promises, though).
In silver’s case, we see something similar, and the implications are the same.
The dollar sits where it has sat through all of this, on its breakout above 100, and it does not need to do much. It is holding while the metals break, and every failed rally in gold is one more confirmation of it. As long as the dollar holds that line, the pressure on the sector stays in place.
Please note that USD’s rising support line is below the current price and it wasn’t touched. It wouldn’t be odd if we saw a move back to it before another bigger rally starts – similarly to what we saw in the first half of June.
All in all, it looks like our profits are going to increase once again shortly.
As always, I will keep my subscribers informed.
Thank you for reading today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses – sign up for our free gold newsletter now.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
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Being passionately curious about the market’s behavior, PR uses his statistical and financial background to question the common views and profit on the misconceptions.
Spot silver weekly chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView A drop below Friday’s low of $57.22 would indicate continued weakness toward that next support zone, where traders will look for signs of support to emerge. Nonetheless, there remains the possibility that support could fail in that price zone as well. If that occurs and silver records a decisive decline below $54.23, the lower target would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $48.29.
Resistance Must Break to Shift Momentum Key near-term resistance is defined by a range from around $60.77 to $61.34, with the higher level represented by the falling 20-day moving average. Before there is a chance for higher prices, the 20-day moving average must first be reclaimed, followed by further signs of strength. Until then, the bearish trend remains in control, leaving the support levels discussed above as the market’s primary focus.
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Silver price remains below $60.00 as the week begins, diving nearly 4% on Monday amid tensions in the Middle East. Hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller underpin the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is up by over 0.28%. The XAG/USD trades at $57.50.
XAG/USD price forecast: Technical outlookThe downtrend in Silver seems poised to continue as the market structure of successive lower highs and lower lows is respected. Also, the XAG/USD is about to breach the July 8 daily low of $57.22, which if achieved would open the path to test the November 13, 2025 high, which has since turned support at $54.39. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the $50.00 milestone.
Conversely, for a bullish resumption, XAG/USD must clear a key resistance trendline at around $62.25-$62.50, before interrupting the downward market structure if bulls clear the July 6 high at $63.28. If hurdled, this clears the way to challenge $65.00. Once surpassed, Silver could aim toward the $70.00 region.
XAG/USD Price Chart - Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The New Zealand Dollar recoiled during Monday’s North American session, down 0.12%, as the Greenback posted gains versus most G8 FX currencies amid rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish comments from a Fed Governor. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5754, down from daily highs of 0.5789.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Kiwi Dollar remains downward biased, with the pair standing below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5819, for the twenty-fifth consecutive trading day. This is despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising rates and opening the door to further tightening.
Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests that buyers are in charge, though, as of writing, it signals further consolidation ahead.
For a bearish continuation, the NZD/USD must drop below the psychological 0.5700 figure. Below this area lies the July 8 low of 0.5672, followed by 0.5650. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 0.5600 milestone.
Upwards, the first resistance is the July 10 daily high at 0.5794, ahead of 0.5800. Above this level lies the confluence of the 50- and 200-day SMAs at around 0.5812-0.5819, respectively, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.5835 and by the 0.5850 mark.
NZD/USD Price Chart - Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.25%0.33%0.42%-0.00%0.47%0.13%0.66%EUR-0.25%0.08%0.17%-0.26%0.25%-0.09%0.42%GBP-0.33%-0.08%0.09%-0.34%0.17%-0.15%0.38%JPY-0.42%-0.17%-0.09%-0.43%0.05%-0.25%0.28%CAD0.00%0.26%0.34%0.43%0.50%0.21%0.73%AUD-0.47%-0.25%-0.17%-0.05%-0.50%-0.28%0.25%NZD-0.13%0.09%0.15%0.25%-0.21%0.28%0.53%CHF-0.66%-0.42%-0.38%-0.28%-0.73%-0.25%-0.53% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
