Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 528.07 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 531.64 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,159.30 per tola from MYR 6,200.93 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
528.07
10 Grams
5,280.70
Tola
6,159.30
Troy Ounce
16,424.82
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,488.37 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,573.30 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,658.30 per tola from INR 146,652.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,488.37
10 Grams
124,880.60
Tola
145,658.30
Troy Ounce
388,432.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,858.41 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,098.45 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 418,244.40 per tola from PKR 421,045.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,858.41
10 Grams
358,583.20
Tola
418,244.40
Troy Ounce
1,115,322.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 476.41 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 479.42 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,556.81 per tola from AED 5,591.87 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
476.41
10 Grams
4,764.24
Tola
5,556.81
Troy Ounce
14,818.06
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and drops back closer to the previous day's swing low, around the $4,025 region in the last hour. Despite soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, elevated crude oil prices keep the possibility of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year firmly on the table. This offers some support to the US Dollar (USD) and drives flows away from the non-yielding bullion.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the PPI unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June after a downwardly revised 0.6% rise in the previous month. Moreover, the yearly rate decelerated from 6% in May to 5.5% last month. This comes on top of the steepest month-on-month decline in the US CPI since April 2020 and indicates easing price pressures. Traders reacted by paring their expectations of an immediate Fed rate hike, which dragged the USD to its lowest level since June 18 and offered some support to the Gold price on Wednesday.
However, risks of the energy-driven inflation persist as crude oil prices stand firm near a one-month high amid escalating US-Iran tensions and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, the US carried out another round of airstrikes against Iran on Wednesday, targeting coastal defense systems and missile infrastructure. Iran responded with retaliatory drone and missile attacks on US-linked military facilities across the region. Moreover, US President Donald Trump warned that critical Iranian infrastructure could be targeted if the situation continues to deteriorate.
Adding to this, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to expand the conflict by targeting additional regional energy supply routes. This suggests that Iran could use its Houthi allies in Yemen to threaten shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This continues to support crude oil prices, reviving inflationary fears and backing the case for at least one 25-basis-point (bps) Fed rate hike in 2026. This, in turn, might hold back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold bears might await break and acceptance below $4,000 before placing fresh betsThe XAU/USD pair keeps the near-term bias bearish below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and within a broader downward parallel channel. However, mixed momentum indicators – a modestly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading around 9.43 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40.77 – hint at only tentative stabilization rather than a sustained recovery.
That said, a sustained break and acceptance below the $4,000 psychological mark would expose the year-to-date low, around the $3,943-$3,942 region, touched in June. The subsequent fall could extend further and drag the Gold price to a key structural support around $3,675.71, representing the lower band of the channel. A decisive break below this level would reinforce the prevailing bearish tone.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,093.63, where any rebound would likely face selling pressure. A sustained break above that area would expose the 200-day SMA as the next significant barrier around $4,495.94.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Interest rates FAQs Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 185.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is retaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests positive but not overextended momentum, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone.
The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross positioning near the upper boundary of an ascending triangle around 186.10, suggesting that price crowding right against that flat ceiling indicates that buyers are aggressively absorbing all selling pressure at that level. This positioning shows immense bullish pressure. Since the dips are getting shallower, staying near the top suggests a breakout above resistance is likely building up.
A decisive daily close above this upper boundary typically triggers a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.35, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.05. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 184.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%0.12%-0.05%0.08%0.09%0.12%0.11%EUR-0.00%0.11%-0.04%0.08%0.19%0.13%0.10%GBP-0.12%-0.11%-0.15%-0.02%0.06%0.02%0.00%JPY0.05%0.04%0.15%0.09%0.20%0.16%0.15%CAD-0.08%-0.08%0.02%-0.09%0.10%0.07%0.05%AUD-0.09%-0.19%-0.06%-0.20%-0.10%-0.01%-0.05%NZD-0.12%-0.13%-0.02%-0.16%-0.07%0.01%-0.03%CHF-0.11%-0.10%-0.01%-0.15%-0.05%0.05%0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Sterling extended its rally after reports that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham has decided on a fiscally conservative Chancellor. The Pound outperformed broadly, with the strongest gains seen against the Euro and Swiss Franc as both EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF broke out of established technical channels, suggesting investors are beginning to price a more durable revaluation of UK assets rather than merely covering short positions.
The catalyst was a Financial Times report, later corroborated by Reuters, that Burnham has settled on Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor of the Exchequer, with one source describing the appointment as “nailed down.” Formal cabinet appointments are expected on Monday when Burnham succeeds Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. Although Mahmood has built her political profile primarily on domestic issues rather than economic policymaking, markets appear to be focusing less on her experience than on what her appointment signals about Burnham’s governing philosophy.
Until recently, investors had worried that Burnham, whose political roots lie in Labour’s soft-left tradition and mayoral politics, might pursue a looser fiscal agenda once in office. Those concerns had supported a modest political risk premium in Sterling during the leadership contest. The Makerfield by-election largely removed uncertainty over who would become Prime Minister, but it did not resolve uncertainty over how the new government would govern.
The expected choice of Mahmood appears to answer that question. Compared with Ed Miliband, who had long been viewed as the frontrunner for Chancellor and whose association with expansive industrial and net-zero policies had unsettled parts of the business community, Mahmood is regarded as representing a more centrist and fiscally disciplined approach. Investors are therefore interpreting the appointment as an early indication that fiscal credibility will remain a cornerstone of the new government.
That distinction matters because currency markets generally respond more to expected fiscal settings than political personalities. Expectations of tighter control over public finances improve confidence in the outlook for government borrowing, gilt issuance and longer-term debt sustainability. In that sense, the Chancellor announcement would represent a more concrete market signal than Burnham’s leadership victory itself.
The technical picture reinforces that fundamental shift. EUR/GBP resumed its decline from 0.8863 and broke below its near-term falling channel, indicating that downside momentum is accelerating. The cross is now testing the key 61.8% retracement of 0.8221 (2024 low) to 0.8863 (2025 high) at 0.8466. A sustained break there would strengthen the case for a medium-term move back toward the 2024 low at 0.8221.On the upside, above 0.8543 resistance will bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited below 0.8610 support turned resistance to bring another fall.
GBP/CHF is delivering a similarly constructive signal. The cross has broken above the upper boundary of its rising channel, suggesting that the uptrend is entering a stronger acceleration phase. The next objective lies at 161.8% projection of 1.0281 to 1.0674 from 1.0468 at 1.1104. On the downside, below 1.0801 support will bring consolidations first. But pullback should be contained above 1.0674 resistance turned support to bring another rise.
Together, the technical breakouts across both crosses suggest Sterling’s rally is evolving from a simple unwinding of political uncertainty into a broader repricing of UK fiscal credibility that could extend through the third quarter as Burnham’s cabinet and policy agenda become clearer.
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Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $57.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. The price of the non-yielding white metal faces significant challenges as rising US-Iran tensions boost oil prices and spark fresh inflation concerns. This geopolitical friction threatens to prolong the Federal Reserve's (Fed) higher interest rate environment.
The Guardian reported that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched another wave of strikes in a concerted effort to keep the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway open. In a direct escalation of hostilities, CENTCOM confirmed that US aircraft fired missiles into an oil tanker’s smokestack within the strategic passage, effectively disabling the vessel and keeping global markets on edge. When questioned on whether Iran faces a strict timeline before the US begins targeting domestic infrastructure, such as Iranian bridges, US President Donald Trump stated to reporters that he "does not like giving deadlines."
Amid this escalating conflict in the Middle East, traders are closely assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in light of recently softened US inflation data. Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 3.5% in June from the three-year high of 4.2% set in May, coming in well below the market expectation of 3.8%. This weaker consumer inflation data initially helped reduce immediate concerns that the Fed would soon raise interest rates.
Further supporting this cooling trend, Wednesday's data showed the US Producer Price Index (PPI) declined to 5.5% on a yearly basis in June, down from 6% in May and below the market expectation of 6.2%. On a monthly basis, the PPI dropped by 0.3%, a notable shift from the 0.6% increase recorded in May and an improvement compared to analysts' estimates of no change.
Consequently, markets scaled back expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, with the implied probability falling to around 44% from 50% just a day earlier. However, because the interim peace agreement reached last month has effectively unraveled, June’s inflation data does not yet capture the economic impact of this latest military escalation between the US and Iran.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.7909 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7910 and 6.7577 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Since forming the all‑time high at $121.6 on January 29, 2026, Silver (XAG/USD) has entered a pronounced correction. The decline has unfolded with a clear Elliott Wave structure, and the ideal extreme target remains the 100% Fibonacci extension at $38.8. Whether this level will ultimately be reached is uncertain, but the broader corrective sequence continues to suggest further downside potential. Short term, the rally to $63.29 marked the completion of wave (B), as illustrated in the one‑hour chart. From that point, the market resumed lower in wave (C), which is progressing with internal subdivision into five waves.
Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at $57.19. A corrective rally in wave ((ii)) terminated at $60.76. The subsequent decline in wave ((iii)) reached $56.84. The rally in wave ((iv)) concluded at $59.67. The structure indicates that wave ((v)) is now approaching completion, which should also finalize the higher degree wave 1 of (C). Once this initial leg is complete, the metal is expected to rally in wave 2, correcting the cycle from the July 6, 2026 high. This correction should unfold in either three or seven swings before the broader decline resumes. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $63.3 remains intact, rallies are expected to fail in corrective sequences. This reinforces the bearish outlook and opens the path for further downside extension.
Silver (XAGUSD) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart XAGUSD Elliott Wave Video: You are currently viewing a placeholder content from Default. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.
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The EUR/USD advances some 0.41% on Wednesday, trading at 1.1466 after US inflation data was softer than expected, weighing on the Greenback, as market participants expect a less hawkish Federal Reserve. Towards the end of the year.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is downwardly biased, even though it trades near 19-day highs. Momentum turned bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which could open the door to a recovery, with buyers eyeing key technical resistance levels.
The first resistance for EUR/USD is the psychological 1.1500 level. Above lies the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1542, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.1592 ahead of the 1.1600 mark. Upwards lies the 200-day SMA at 1.1642.
On the other hand, if EUR/USD dives below 1.1400, the next support would be the July 13 low of 1.1377. On further weakness, the next support would be the June 24 daily low at 1.1324, ahead of 1.1300.
EUR/USD Price Chart — Daily
EUR/USD daily chart Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.56%-1.10%0.19%-0.83%-0.86%-1.47%-0.36%EUR0.56%-0.56%0.80%-0.27%-0.35%-0.92%0.22%GBP1.10%0.56%1.29%0.29%0.20%-0.40%0.81%JPY-0.19%-0.80%-1.29%-1.12%-1.07%-1.72%-0.62%CAD0.83%0.27%-0.29%1.12%0.06%-0.61%0.53%AUD0.86%0.35%-0.20%1.07%-0.06%-0.57%0.47%NZD1.47%0.92%0.40%1.72%0.61%0.57%1.19%CHF0.36%-0.22%-0.81%0.62%-0.53%-0.47%-1.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to around $4,060 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal rebounds as softer US inflation has fueled hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold rates steady at the upcoming July policy meeting.
Producer inflation in the United States, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), declined to 5.5% YoY in June from 6.0% in May (revised from 6.5%), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. This reading came in softer than the market expectation of 6.2%. On a monthly basis, the PPI declined by 0.3%, compared to the 0.6% increase seen in May (revised from 1.1%) and improved compared with the estimate for no change.
Traders see about a 10.2% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's July meeting, versus 16.6% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Earlier on Tuesday, U.S. consumer inflation also slowed more than expected in June.
"Gold has pared losses from earlier this morning as PPI came in lower than expected and eased some of those concerns about the Fed having multiple interest rate hikes this year," said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
On the other hand, escalating US-Iran hostilities and airstrikes around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices up and could prompt central banks to hold rates at elevated levels for longer, weighing on gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
The BBC reported that the US had launched fresh strikes against Iran on Wednesday evening as US President Donald Trump warned Tehran it "better behave”. Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that Tehran had "no reason" to abide by the deal if it did benefit from it. On Tuesday, Trump had threatened to attack bridges and power plants should Iran not return to talks next week.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The British pound was the standout performer among the major currencies on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and growing optimism over the UK's fiscal outlook. Sterling rallied across the board, lifting GBP/USD to a nine-week high while GBP/AUD rebounded from support to challenge key long-term resistance.
View related analysis:
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Source: LSEG
Sterling Surges on Treasury Pick Speculation as GBP/USD and GBP/AUD Rally The British pound surged across the board on Wednesday following reports that incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is considering Shabana Mahmood for Finance Minister. While Mahmood has little direct economic policy experience, markets view her as a fiscally cautious choice. Her appointment would also reduce the likelihood of Ed Miliband becoming Chancellor, a candidate investors perceive as more likely to increase public spending, boost borrowing and pursue ambitious net-zero spending plans.
British Pound Breaks Higher Against the US Dollar GBP/USD rallied 1.2% to a nine-week high during its strongest session in four months, closing decisively above 1.3500. Sterling also drew support from a weaker US dollar, which fell for a second consecutive session and is now within striking distance of the psychologically important 100 level on the US Dollar Index.
The 1-hour chart shows how explosive the rally was, producing seven consecutive bullish candles during its 146-pip advance without a meaningful pullback. Prices are now consolidating in a tight range above the monthly R1 pivot (1.3521). However, after such a sharp move, the pair may be overstretched, with the RSI (14) in overbought territory, so bulls may want to be on guard for a minor pullback. The daily pivot point sits just below 1.3500, while the 15 June high aligns with the weekly S1 pivot (1.3461), providing a potential support zone.
With the US dollar retracing lower and GBP/USD maintaining its bullish momentum, buyers may be eyeing a move towards the monthly R2 pivot (1.3636), just below the May high.
Source: ICE, TradingView
GBP/AUD Bulls Eye Break Above Key Long-Term Resistance Earlier this week, I was working on the assumption that GBP/AUD could fall. Its three-week rally had been accompanied by waning momentum, while the previous two weekly candles formed long upper wicks, culminating in a shooting star reversal below the 200-day EMA. That view appeared to be playing out on Tuesday as the pair pulled back to its 20-day EMA, although Wednesday's bullish engulfing candle suggests the pullback may already be over.
March High Remains the Key Bullish Hurdle for GBP Bulls With a well-established uptrend and a potential swing low forming around the 12 June high and 20-day EMA, bulls may be preparing for another attempt to break above the 200-day and 200-week EMAs. This paints a bullish near-term picture heading into today's session, although there is also a reasonable chance of a shakeout around 1.9400 given the significance of the long-term moving averages and the March high.
Even so, unless a clear bearish catalyst emerges for the British pound, I suspect GBP bulls will look to buy any dips in anticipation of a bullish breakout above the March high. If they succeed, the 1.9595 high comes into focus for GBP/AUD.
The USD/CHF breaks a rising wedge, tumbles over 0.62%, trading near three-day lows, as the pair clears the July 14 swing low of 0.8067. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8041.
The USD/CHF trend is upwards, but the trendline break during the day has opened the door to challenge the March 31 daily high-turned-support at 0.8042.
Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about to turn bearish, sitting at a 50.50 reading at the brink of clearing the neutral level. This suggests that buyers had lost momentum over the last 14 trading sessions, opening the door to a challenge of key support levels.
If USD/CHF ends the day below 0.8100, this clears the path to challenge 0.8042. Below this level is the 0.8000 psychological level. Once those two levels are taken out, the next key support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7961, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7918.
On the other hand, a bullish resumption could pave the way to test the August 1, 2025, daily peak at 0.8171, followed by the June 4, 2025, daily high of 0.8250.
Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Bitcoin Talking Points: BTC/USD is breaking out of a falling wedge formation and pushing up to a fresh high. While the cryptocurrency lagged Gold last year, that dynamic has shifted as gold remains close to 4k support even as Bitcoin tests through a major level at $65k. I looked into both markets in yesterday’s webinar and in the below video take a shorter-term look at the bigger picture setup.
Bitcoin is testing a fresh breakout at a major spot on the chart at $65k. This was the level that helped to set the top in the cryptocurrency over multiple tests in 2021 and more recently, earlier this year, it was holding as support until sellers took their shot a few months ago. But – bears were unable to do much below the $60k level and even with gold holding near $4k, Bitcoin is testing back above that $65k level.
Chasing a fresh breakout is always a challenge and at this point, even the $65k level that was prior resistance looks as though it might give way to a deeper pullback. In this video three different areas are looked at for continuation potential, looking to use a big picture breakout for a near-term trend in a theme that brings high sensitivity to interest rate expectations and USD dynamics.
Below is the four-hour chart shared in the above video.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
The Gold price turns negative on Wednesday, even though the last two US inflation reports showed that prices are dropping, though developments in the Middle East sent energy prices higher. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD traded at $4,034, down some 0.53%.
XAU/USD falls as Oil-driven Dollar risks cap recoveryData in the US showed the Producer Price Index (PPI) dipped from 6% to 5.5% YoY, below estimates of a 6.2% increase. Core PPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose from 4.6% to 4.7% YoY, yet below forecasts of 5.2%.
Overall, the latest two inflation reports over the last two days eased pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed).
On Tuesday, before the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), money markets were expecting at least 35 basis points of Fed tightening toward the end of the year. After the data, investors cut expectations for a rate hike in half, to just 22 bps, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalGeopolitics are also a driver that has kept Gold prices contained amid the rise in energy prices. Since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict, Oil has shown a positive correlation with the US Dollar, which has appreciated amid market players' expectations of higher interest rates, a headwind for Bullion prices.
Consequently, the ongoing escalation of the conflict after the US launched another wave of strikes against Iran stalled Gold’s recovery, which was poised to test the $4,150 mark.
Furthermore, Washington has reimposed the blockade on Iran, while the latter threatened to shut off more regional energy exports.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.5% at 100.42, refreshing the current week’s low. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield is down nearly four basis points at 4.549%, providing a tailwind for the yellow metal.
Fed officials’ stance remained unchangedMeanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is making headlines. He stated that the rise in prices is partly due to AI and mentioned that short-term disruptions from its impact cannot be ruled out.
New York Fed President John Williams stated there’s no clear interest rate path, noting solid economic growth and a strong labor market. He mentioned the Middle East conflict poses “significant risks” that the US economy has so far absorbed.
What to expect on July 16?Ahead, the US economic docket will feature Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales for June, and further Fed speakers, led by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Regional Bank Presidents Lorie Logan and Jeffrey Schmid.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s downtrend intact below $4,100Gold’s trend remains downwards but is about to turn neutral. Although momentum remains bearish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the slope has flattened, suggesting sideways trading ahead. Also, buyers stepping in puts pressure on the psychological $4,100 mark, which, if broken, can set the stage for a rally.
In that outcome, the first resistance is the July 14 high of $4,103. Once surpassed, the next stop is a downslope resistance trendline at around $4,125-$4,130, before XAU/USD could aim toward the psychological $4,150 level. Above this level lies $4,200.
However, if Gold stays below $4,100, a resumption of the downtrend is likely. The first support would be the psychological $4,000 level. A decisive break will expose the July 14 daily low at $3,983, before sellers test the current-year-to-date (YTD) low at $3,942.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
XAU/USD Current price: $4,062The United States Producer Price Index rose by less than anticipated in June.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified before Congress, focus remains on inflation.XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish, dangerously close to the $4,000 barrier. The US Dollar (USD) is under strong selling pressure on Wednesday, yet action around XAU/USD is muted. The Greenback found near-term demand at the beginning of the day, but changed direction following the release of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI), which printed at 5.5% on a yearly basis in June, down from 6% in May. The reading came in below the market expectation of 6.6%. On a monthly basis, the PPI was down 0.3%.
The USD kept falling afterward, following comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh testified for a second consecutive day before Congress and maintained the focus on inflation as he said that current price pressures will not be permanent, while acknowledging that the latest inflation measures remain unsatisfactory.
Meanwhile, Middle East tensions ramped up. The US conducted a military attack on Iran to take out coastal military installations, and tit-for-tat attacks in the region continue, although a Senior US official reported that talks between all parts have concluded, adding that discussions were “fruitful and positive.” Oil prices remain stable, meaning market players cling to hopes the situation won’t escalate further.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The four-hour chart shows XAU/USD retains a mildly bearish bias as it sits below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,073.52 and well under the 200-period SMA at $4,188.21. The metal nevertheless holds above the 20-period SMA at $4,048.14, hinting at near-term consolidation rather than a decisive breakdown. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims marginally higher, around 51, while the Momentum indicator has turned slightly positive within neutral levels, suggesting downside pressure is easing but not yet reversed.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD is more clearly bearish, as price holds beneath the short- and long-term moving averages. Spot gold is trading below the 20-day SMA at $4,092.16, while the 200-day SMA at $4,495.71 and the 100-day SMA at $4,559.53 remain well above, hinting at a market that stays capped within a broader corrective phase. The Momentum turns lower around its midline, while the RSI indicator stands near 42, suggesting subdued buying interest.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-period SMA at $4,073.52, followed by the $4,100 area, with a stronger cap at the 200-period SMA near $4,188.21, where a sustained break would be needed to reassert a bullish trend. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period SMA at $4,048.14 ahead of the $4,000 mark. Below the latter, a recent low at $3,941 is the next level to watch.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the back foot on Wednesday, struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD) as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep bears in control. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $57.55, down 1.90% on the day.
Both the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June broadly missed market expectations. The softer inflation readings have reduced expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike, putting some pressure on the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades around 100.46, easing from an intraday high of 101.03.
However, the data did not materially change the Fed’s hawkish outlook. Inflation risks persist as Oil prices climb following renewed fighting in the Middle East, keeping the possibility of an interest rate hike later this year on the table.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said on Wednesday that inflation expectations remain anchored, although this depends on maintaining an appropriate monetary policy stance. She warned that the Fed “can’t take its eye off the ball.”
Cook said there are reasons to believe disinflation will occur but noted that price pressures could persist due to tariffs, the Middle East conflict and strong investment in artificial intelligence.
Expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated or even raise them remain a major headwind for Silver, as higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD retains a bearish bias as the price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 sits just above oversold territory, hinting at persistent downside pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally negative, reinforcing a capped tone despite some recent stabilization.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-period SMA near $59.42, followed closely by the 50-period SMA at $59.57, which together form a nearby supply zone ahead of the more distant 200-period SMA at $64.18.
On the downside, buyers are attempting to build a base in the $55.50-$56.00 region. A break below this area could trigger a deeper corrective decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Key Points:GBP/USD rallied as traders reacted to U.S. PPI data. USD/CAD moved lower despite the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY was mostly flat as traders ignored falling Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As PPI Misses Estimates
DXY 150726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is moving lower as traders react to Producer Prices report. The report indicated that Producer Prices decreased by -0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of 0%. Core PPI increased by +0.2%, while analysts forecasted that it would grow by +0.4%.
Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index report. The report showed that NY Empire State Manufacturing Index improved from 5.70 in June to 15.60 in July, compared to analyst consensus of 8.8.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the support level at 100.50 – 100.65. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next support, which is located in the 99.75 – 99.90 range.
EUR/USD Remains Stuck Near The 1.1435 Level EUR/USD 150726 4h Chart EUR/USD is moving higher despite the weaker-than-expected Industrial Production report. The report indicated that Industrial Production decreased by -0.2% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +0.2%.
The technical picture remains unchanged as EUR/USD is stuck near the resistance level at 1.1420 – 1.1435. If EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1435 level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515.
GBP/USD Tests New Highs GBP/USD 150726 4h Chart GBP/USD rallied as traders reacted to the softer-than-expected U.S. PPI data and remained focused on U.S. CPI report, which was released yesterday.
GBP/USD climbed above the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465 and is trying to settle above the 1.3500 level. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3535 – 1.3550 range. It should be noted that RSI has moved into overbought territory, so the risks of a pullback are increasing.
USD/CAD 150726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving lower despite the pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined below the $4050 level, while silver settled below $57.00. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.
The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.4010 – 1.4025 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3915 – 1.3930. RSI is in the oversold territory, but there is some room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.
On the upside, a move above the 1.4080 level will push USD/CAD towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
USD/JPY Is Flat As Traders Ignore Falling Treasury Yields USD/JPY 150726 4h Chart USD/JPY is mostly flat despite the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.55%.
Traders stay bullish due to the ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan. The market believes that BoJ cannot raise rates without putting too much pressure on the Japanese economy.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The trading week continues to advance and, for now, the Canadian dollar has started to lose the strength it had shown in previous sessions. USD/CAD movements are barely registering a short-term variation near 0.05%, highlighting a loss of momentum.
For now, the selling pressure that USD/CAD had been showing has not managed to stabilize significantly after the Bank of Canada decision, which pointed to caution in monetary policy.
If the central bank fails to become a relevant catalyst for Canadian dollar demand, a phase of indecision could start to gain importance in USD/CAD movements over the next few sessions.
BoC day arrives During the session, the Bank of Canada published its interest rate decision, keeping the rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with expectations. The institution stated that current levels remain appropriate to support the economic recovery and bring inflation back toward the 2.00% target.
This stance reflects a cautious tone from the central bank. Although annual inflation in Canada has increased toward 3.2%, it is still not far enough from the target to justify a more aggressive stance. In addition, the bank continues to highlight that uncertainty remains elevated and that, with current rates, inflation should gradually ease.
Source: TradingEconomics
For now, this decision has not been enough to strengthen the Canadian dollar. The lack of signals around higher rates limits the appeal of CAD-denominated assets, especially compared to USD alternatives.
This dynamic is also reflected in Canada’s 10-year bonds, whose yield showed a decline close to -1.00% during the session. In addition, the spread against 10-year U.S. bonds remains relevant, as U.S. bonds still maintain a yield almost 1.00% higher.
Source: TradingEconomics
In this context, the Bank of Canada decision came without major surprises and failed to clearly improve the appeal of the Canadian market. For this reason, the recent recovery in the Canadian dollar appears to be explained more by U.S. dollar weakness than by the CAD’s own strength.
If new comments or data in the United States provide renewed support for the USD, USD/CAD could enter a phase of greater indecision over the next few trading sessions.
Technical forecast for USD/CAD
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
The uptrend comes to an end: Since the first days of May, USD/CAD had managed to maintain a consistent bullish trend line, which remained the dominant technical structure over recent weeks. However, with the recent price decline and U.S. dollar weakness, this trend line has been crossed in recent sessions. Despite the recent selling pressure, current movements have started to show a new sense of neutrality. If this behavior continues and the selling bias fails to stabilize, room could open for a phase of indecision or even the formation of a sideways range over the next few trading sessions.
RSI: The RSI line remains close to the 50 level. This indicates that, for now, there is still a balance between bullish and bearish impulses in the market over the last 14 sessions. This reading shows that a phase of indecision has not been fully eliminated from the USD/CAD daily chart.
TRIX: A similar dynamic can be seen in the TRIX. Although the line remains above the 0 level, indicating that the dominant strength of long-term exponential moving averages remains in bullish territory, a relevant flattening of the curve has started to appear. This suggests that the buying impulse from previous weeks has entered an important stagnation zone and makes a possible phase of neutrality relevant again on the USD/CAD daily chart.
Key levels:
1.42089 – Relevant resistance: This 2026 high remains the most important buying barrier on the chart. Price movements toward this area could reactivate a buying bias and restore relevance to the bullish trend line that was important in previous weeks.
1.40813 – Near-term barrier: This nearby zone corresponds to the most relevant 23.6% Fibonacci level on the chart. Price movements that fail to move consistently away from this level could continue to highlight an important phase of neutrality and even open room for the formation of a short-term sideways range.
1.39905 – Crucial support: This relevant bearish barrier corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area and also aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements below this level could reaffirm a more consistent selling bias and open room for a possible short-term bearish trend line over the next few sessions. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
The Pound Sterling rises by some 0.60% against the US Dollar after the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US showed prices edging lower, driven by the dip in energy prices since late May. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3460 after bouncing off a daily low of 1.3370. Read More...
British Pound dips below 1.3400, turns negative on the day as US Dollar picks upThe British Pound (GBP) has retraced previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, returning to the 1.3390 area from session highs of 1.3420 and turning negative on the daily chart. The safe-haven US Dollar has bounced up during the London session amid the risk-averse sentiment as US and Iran escalate their threats following the resumption of hostilities. Read More...
British Pound advances as US Dollar remains subdued following inflation dataGBP/USD rises for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3400 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds losses following softer-than-expected US inflation data, fueling hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might adopt a less hawkish monetary stance. Read More...
Although gold has gained close to 1.5% over the last 2 trading sessions, this move does not yet appear to confirm a dominant buying bias. For now, the metal continues to show a more neutral behavior, with demand strength still failing to recover fully after the release of PPI inflation data in the United States.
British Pound Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Short-Term Trade Levels GBP/USD is attempting to break above a multi-month downtrend with bulls testing pivotal resistance at the yearly open today. A daily close above resistance would strengthen the case that a more significant low is in place and invalidate the May downtrend. Failure to sustain the breakout would keep the broader downtrend intact / threaten resumption. U.S. retail sales and Michigan confidence on tap into the close of the week- UK employment / CPI next week. Resistance 1.3460/74 (key), 1.3509, 1.3591/93- Support 1.3397, 1.3302/26 (key), 1.3187/94 GBP/USD is attempting to complete its most significant technical breakout in months after a 2.6% recovery off the yearly lows carried Sterling back into a major resistance zone defined by the yearly open and key Fibonacci retracement levels. The latest advance has improved the near-term technical outlook, but buyers still need confirmation above this pivotal barrier to invalidate the broader May downtrend. With the weekly opening-range already breaking to the upside, attention now turns to whether Sterling can build on this momentum and confirm a more durable trend reversal. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Short-term Outlook, we noted that GBP/USD had rebounded off downtrend support and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.3326 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.3187 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Sterling marked a six-day rally off the lows into the monthly cross with the advance extending nearly 2.4% off the June low. The rally exhausted into downtrend resistance last week with price straddling the 200-day moving average for the past five-days. The weekly opening range breaking today and the focus is on a reaction into the objective yearly open with a close above needed to keep the immediate advance viable and fuel the next leg higher.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action shows GBP/USD trading within the confines of an embedded ascending pitchfork extending off the May lows. Sterling is testing a major pivot zone today at 1.3460/74- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the May decline, the February low-day close (LDC), and the objective 2026 yearly open. A breach / daily close above this threshold is needed to invalidate the multi-month downtrend and suggest a more significant low is in place. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the May 25th swing high at 1.3509 with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range and the 2025 May & August swing highs at 1.3591/93. Look for larger reaction there IF reached.
Initial support rests with the May low / low close 1.3302/26. Note that the 75% parallel of the downslope converges on this level into the close of the week and losses below this threshold would validate a break of the multi-week uptrend and threaten resumption of the broader May downtrend. Subsequent support rests with the 61.8% retracement at 1.3260 and the March low close / 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance at 1.3187/94.
Bottom line: Sterling is attempting to breakout of a multi-month downtrend with a breakout of the weekly opening-range supporting the rally today. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the 200-day moving average near ~1.3397 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with daily close above 1.3474 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Keep in mind we get still get the release of U.S. retail sales and Michigan consumer sentiment into the close of the week. Key U.K. data hits next week with the May employment report and the consumer price index (CPI)on tap. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for directional guidance. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
Key GBP/USD Economic Data Releases
Active Short-term Technical Charts
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Stalls at 2024 High as Intervention Risk Builds --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Chris Turner at ING says EUR/USD rallied on softer US CPI but warns that rising Oil and European natural gas prices limit upside. He expects EUR/USD to struggle above 1.1460/70 and potentially retreat toward 1.1360/80 if Oil gains another leg higher. Strong demand below 1.14 and possible rotation into European equities are noted, though flows into US-listed eurozone ETFs remain muted.
Energy sector weighs on Euro"Along with most dollar pairs, EUR/USD very much enjoyed yesterday's soft US CPI release. Were it not for developments in the Gulf and in energy markets in general, we would be happy to call EUR/USD steadily higher from here. But European natural gas is now back to levels seen in mid-March and, as above, it is too early to trade an 'all-clear' US inflation story."
"In the absence of a major improvement in energy markets, we suspect that EUR/USD will struggle to break above the 1.1460/70 area and again could move down to the 1.1360/80 area should oil prices deliver another leg higher."
"We do note, however, that there seems to be strong demand for EUR/USD sub 1.14. One suggestion could be a rotation into European equities as analysts raise expectations for European earnings. That may be the case, but so far those flows have not shown up in US-listed eurozone equity ETFs, e.g., the iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF."
"Elsewhere, a pro-risk environment given lower prospects of Fed tightening, higher energy prices and potentially lower volatility favouring the carry trade all point to the Norwegian krone recovering some of its losses since May. We have a one-month target at 11.05 for EUR/NOK, but the move could easily extend to 10.95."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
June’s Inflation Is Already Stale and Warsh Knows It The PPI added to Tuesday’s soft CPI and confirmed inflation was trending the right direction during June. Wholesale prices fell 0.3% with gasoline plunging 12% and accounting for two-thirds of the monthly decline. Core PPI was slightly cooler than expected. Two soft inflation reports in two days and gold still could not sustain a move because the June data landed in a market that has already moved on.
Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz after those numbers were collected. The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and crude climbed back toward one-month highs. Meanwhile, the gasoline decline that drove the soft PPI is already reversing at the pump. Traders may have bought the number Wednesday morning and are now spending the rest of the session talking about whether August CPI prints hotter.
Higher crude, gasoline, and diesel prices right now raise the risk of hotter readings in the next round of data, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is not waiting around to find out. His testimony Wednesday made the central bank’s position clear. “No tolerance for persistently elevated inflation” is not language that softens because one month of wholesale prices came in light. Warsh is watching where inflation is headed, not where it was in June, and crude climbing on Middle East supply disruptions is pointing him toward hawkish, not dovish.
EUR/USD Talking Points: After showing strength in early 2026 trade EUR/USD bears took over in May and early-June. The sell-off has since slowed although buyers have yet to make much ground above 1.1469, begging the question as to whether a short squeeze and pullback could bring on bigger picture trend continuation potential. After a strong rally a year ago as markets were getting ready for FOMC rate cuts, EUR/USD has so far spent much of this year grinding, although there has been some short-term trend to work with. In early 2026 trade buyers were making a move, eventually setting a fresh four-year-high in the pair.
But as the Iran conflict took over so too did the fear of European energy vulnerability, and the Euro was hit hard in March to test below the 1.1500 level. A bounce in April was faded in May and June – but so far in July, that move has been stalled and price has been sitting around the 1.1400 handle, begging the question as to which trend will take over next.
EUR/USD Monthly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Next Steps A sell-off stalling can be read as either an impending reversal or a pause in trend. At this point, at least from a relative since with gold and Bitcoin rallying as GBP/USD showing greater strength, I think the bias indicates more of a pause than an impending reversal.
But – with that said, it’s the reaction to a rally and pullback that will illustrate which option is favorable moving forward. I covered this in yesterday’s webinar, as we can still make the claim of lower-lows in the pair from both weekly and monthly charts. But from the daily below we can see where that’s been somewhat messy, although there’s an important message contained in these candles. Sellers have so far responded to pullbacks, holding resistance around 1.1450. But, they’ve also swung less and less weight, illustrated by the higher-lows that have built over the past few weeks.
This indicates an oversold market and one that’s difficult to push for trend-side continuation at this point. It also highlights the possibility of a short-term bullish breakout, which could open the door for bigger picture trend continuation if sellers make a move on follow-through resistance. The 1.1500 area is an ideal spot to look for that to play above current highs, and then there’s a zone of prior support spanning from 1.1576 up to 1.1613 above that that’s of interest.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD: How to Position For Reversal From the above two charts we can see the bearish case fairly well illustrated by the lower-lows and highs that have shown in the pair. While many retail traders will try to trade reversals at the early stage, the fact of the matter is that until bulls show greater demand the forces of trend should be considered as bearish.
For trend traders, this means that they often will not get every pip of every move, and that’s somewhat of the point, as they’re instead trying to focus on probabilities and in this case, the more cogent way of going about the matter would be waiting for price to break above the lower-highs that have so far held, around the 1.1450 area, and then waiting for bulls to stretch up to deeper resistance, whether at 1.1500 or the zone above.
And then the corresponding reaction to that, can then be sought as a higher-low for those looking for the reversal theme. That way, if strength does not pan out, they can, at the least, abandon the trade upon a break to fresh lows.
At this point, we’re just not there yet from the daily chart so until that is the case, I’m looking at rallies in EUR/USD as short-term counter-trend setups.
EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
EUR/USD recovers its intraday losses on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure after the latest US inflation data surprised to the downside. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1430 after hitting an intraday low of 1.1406.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.3% MoM in June after rising 0.6% in May, below the forecast of 0%. On an annual basis, producer inflation slowed to 5.5% from 6.0%, also undershooting expectations of 6.2%.
Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% MoM, below the expected 0.4% increase but slightly above May’s 0.1% gain. The annual core rate edged up to 4.7% from 4.6%, although it came in below the 5.2% forecast.
The figures follow softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday. The back-to-back inflation misses have reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike, pulling the US Dollar lower and offering some support to the Euro (EUR).
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, is trading below 101 after giving up its earlier gains.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see an 88% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, while the probability of a September hike has fallen to around 52%.
However, the slowdown in inflation could prove temporary, as energy-driven price risks persist following renewed fighting between the United States (US) and Iran. Disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have lifted Oil prices, keeping the possibility of a Fed rate hike later this year on the table.
New York Fed President John Williams said on Wednesday that inflation is still too high and must return to the Fed’s target on a sustained basis. Williams expects inflation to ease to around 3.25% by the end of this year, move closer to 2% in 2027 and reach the target in 2028.
On the Euro side, European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to signal a cautious approach after raising the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday that rates are at an appropriate level following last month’s decision, but added that policymakers should act decisively if necessary.
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.30%-0.02%0.02%-0.24%-0.24%-0.07%EUR0.08%-0.28%0.06%0.09%-0.21%-0.22%-0.00%GBP0.30%0.28%0.31%0.35%0.07%0.05%0.27%JPY0.02%-0.06%-0.31%0.03%-0.24%-0.24%-0.07%CAD-0.02%-0.09%-0.35%-0.03%-0.26%-0.32%-0.09%AUD0.24%0.21%-0.07%0.24%0.26%-0.03%0.15%NZD0.24%0.22%-0.05%0.24%0.32%0.03%0.22%CHF0.07%0.00%-0.27%0.07%0.09%-0.15%-0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold is defending the $4,000 area within a tight range following a death cross, with $4,200 capping the upside. Source: TradingView. The gold market has been noisy in early trading on Wednesday, initially dropping only to turn around and show some signs of resilience. The $4,000 level sits below, which, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that will attract a certain amount of headlines, as financial reporters love these levels.
Recently, we’ve had the 50-day EMA breakdown below the 200-day EMA, kicking off the death cross, which is a longer-term bearish signal for some analysts and can cause a little bit of nerves as well. It’s worth noting that we have pierced the $4,000 level a couple of times recently, and so far, it looks at least like there are buyers underneath that area that are willing to pick up gold, perhaps down to the $3,900 level based on historical price action. This area is one I would be watching very closely if we do, in fact, get there.
Macro Pressures and Bearish Technical Crossovers Keep in mind that interest rates are elevated, and generally speaking, the historical correlation is higher interest rates, lower silver, but that is also exacerbated by a stronger US dollar, which we have had recently, against almost everything out there.
From a technical analysis standpoint, I’m looking at the 50-day EMA getting ready to cross below the 200-day EMA, something that has already happened in gold as a potential death cross. This is an indicator setup that most traders consider bearish, so with that being the case, I think you continue to have to wonder whether or not we need some type of external factor to get moving. It looks to me in my analysis that a very flat and sideways market is what we are dealing with, and there’s nothing on the candlestick early on Wednesday that suggests that has changed in the silver market.
/ / Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Coils Below 2024 High Resistance USD/JPY is contracting within the monthly range just below major resistance at multi-year highs. Battle lines drawn as intervention fears loom.
15/07/2026
7/15/2026 1:02:00 PM
Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Multi-Timeframe Analysis USD/JPY has failed to close above the 2024 swing high for a third straight week, keeping Bank of Japan intervention risk in play. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, breaks down the multi time frame setup and the exact levels that would confirm a breakout or a deeper reversal.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Key USD/JPY Economic Data Releases
Active Short-term Technical Charts US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields rebound after coming under pressure on Tuesday following softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,036, down 0.40% on the day.
US inflation cooled sharply in June, although much of the decline was driven by lower energy prices following last month’s interim peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
Headline CPI fell 0.4% MoM after a 0.5% rise in May, slowing the annual rate to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core CPI month-on-month came in flat at 0% after a previous 0.2% gain, while the annual core rate eased to 2.6% in June from 2.9%.
The data reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike and briefly lifted Gold above $4,100 on Tuesday. Still, it did not materially change the Fed’s hawkish outlook, as inflation risks persist with Oil prices creeping higher again following renewed fighting in the Middle East.
In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump warned that military strikes against Iran would intensify unless Tehran resumed negotiations. "Next week comes the bridges. We're going to knock out all their power plants. We're going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate," Trump said.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see an 85% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, while the probability of a September hike stands at around 60%.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target during his congressional testimony on Tuesday, saying “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.”
“The June CPI was positive relative to expectations,” Warsh added. “I’m not cherry-picking. There is still plenty of work to do.”
Attention now turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, due at 12:30 GMT, for more clues on the inflation outlook.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD keeps bearish bias with $4,000 support in focus
On the daily chart, XAU/USD retains a bearish near-term bias as the price holds well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The clustering of these longer-term SMAs above spot suggests upside attempts are likely to be capped for now.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 stays in neutral-to-soft territory, hinting at limited bullish momentum despite a pause in the recent slide. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 38.37 points to a still-established trend backdrop.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal level of $4,200, ahead of the 50-day SMA near $4,319 and another barrier at $4,400, with the 200-day SMA at $4,495 and the 100-day SMA at $4,559 marking a broader supply zone higher up.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $4,000.00 handle, and a sustained break below this floor would likely open the way for a deeper bearish extension in line with the prevailing trend structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%-0.11%0.06%0.06%-0.14%-0.09%0.23%EUR-0.06%-0.22%0.00%-0.01%-0.25%-0.21%0.16%GBP0.11%0.22%0.20%0.20%-0.04%0.01%0.37%JPY-0.06%0.00%-0.20%-0.01%-0.22%-0.17%0.15%CAD-0.06%0.00%-0.20%0.00%-0.21%-0.21%0.17%AUD0.14%0.25%0.04%0.22%0.21%0.03%0.36%NZD0.09%0.21%-0.01%0.17%0.21%-0.03%0.36%CHF-0.23%-0.16%-0.37%-0.15%-0.17%-0.36%-0.36% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD/TRY continues to inch higher on the back of the Lira's managed depreciation regime, with additional pressure from geopolitics. Current Setup and Live Chart USD/TRY is once more on the back foot this Wednesday, after the US Dollar regained some of the momentum it lost following Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index data. The pair remains locked within an environment where resilience in the US Dollar, persistent domestic inflation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty are acting as headwinds to the Lira, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) maintains tighter monetary conditions and has taken certain policy steps that have restored confidence in its monetary policy framework.
The Turkish Lira remains in a structural depreciation regime, with the CBRT actively taking measures to manage depreciation and prevent outsized moves.
Macro Drivers for the USD/TRY 1) Elevated Local Inflation
Persistently elevated local inflation has continued to weigh on the Turkish Lira. Despite slight moderation from peak levels, consumer price pressures remain well above the CBRT’s long-term policy target. Consequently, the Lira continues to suffer from a decline in its purchasing power, which has also increased demand for foreign currencies among the population. This also presents a complicated monetary policy scenario for the CBRT, even as inflationary expectations remain elevated. The pressure from the renewed geopolitical escalation complicates the inflationary scenario.
2) Higher Oil Prices
Turkey is a net energy importer. This renders the country vulnerable to situations that cause marked elevation of oil prices. The renewed conflict between the US and Iran has sent oil prices soaring from just above $70/barrel to $87 as of writing. Along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, this has added another layer of risk for the Turkish economy. Typically, higher crude oil prices increase energy import costs, leading to imported inflation that worsens the already persistent local inflationary scenario and creates current account pressures. The increase in demand for US dollars to pay for the higher energy product costs (priced in dollars) puts the Lira under additional pressure.
3) Safe-haven USD Demand
The renewed geopolitical escalation has heightened risk aversion in global markets, driving safe-haven demand for the US dollar. This safe-haven demand comes from direct demand for the currency itself as well as from capital influx into dollar-denominated assets. The Turkish Lira and lira-denominated assets are viewed as high risk. During periods of risk aversion, capital will flow away from high-risk emerging-market currencies into US dollar-denominated assets.
Price Catalysts for the USD/TRY 1) CBRT policy communication: CBRT guidance on inflation, exchange rate policy, or future rate decisions is an important price catalysts that impact the TRY’s side of the equation. Furthermore, any communication regarding special policy measures to support the Lira will be regarded as key to restoring some level of investor confidence that has been degraded.
2) Brent crude prices: Oil prices will remain a key external risk source for Turkey due to the country’s dependence on energy imports. Additional gains in crude oil prices will pressurize the Lira for the reasons mentioned above.
3) US economic data: As noted earlier, the cooling of US consumer prices provided a relief rally for the Lira, but these rallies are only expected to serve as dip-buying opportunities. Stronger-than-expected US economic data will influence US long-term bond yields and the USD’s overall direction, especially against emerging-market FX.
USD/TRY Forecast Scenarios Base case: USD/TRY to remain bullish on the back of elevated energy prices, persistent local inflation, and capital flows into the US Dollar being buoyed by safe-haven demand due to renewed geopolitical tensions.
Bull case: marked elevation in oil prices (Brent crude > $100), a rise in US bond yields, and an intensification of geopolitical tensions. This scenario sees a marked rise in energy import costs, imported inflation that worsens pre-existing local inflation, and increased demand for US Dollars, adding further strain to the CBRT’s already stretched FX reserves.
Bear case: geopolitical resolution, falling oil prices, softer US economic data, and further investor confidence in the CBRT’s disinflationary programs. These will only lead to a retracement in USD/TRY, not a reversal of the uptrend.
USD/TRY Technical Outlook Tuesday’s retreat fund support at the trendline and the 46.9000 intraday support. A rejection of the bounce at the current resistance of 47.0369 retested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 46.9200. The bounce is currently retesting the 47.0369 resistance. If the bulls uncap this barrier, we could see a further push towards the 47.0873 resistance, followed by the 47.1529 price mark, corresponding to the 27% and 61.8% Fibonacci extension levels of the 9 July – 13 July upswing.
Fig 1: USD/TRY daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 15 July 2026) On the flip side, rejection at this resistance will favor a retracement to retest the trendline support. If this trendline support is broken, a further push lower will retest the 46.9001 support mark. If this pivot fails, a further support target is seen at the 46.8481 price mark, the current low of 9 July.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clings to Tuesday’s gains around 0.5820 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair reflects strength in a risk-on market environment, driven by easing fears of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year.
In the European trade, S&P 500 futures trade 0.25% higher around 7,563, indicating strong demand for riskier assets.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates in the policy meeting this month have eased to 16.6% from 31% seen last week.
Market participants have scaled back hawkish Fed bets as the United States (US) inflation cooled down at a faster-than-expected pace in June.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Ahead of the US producer inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 101.00 after recovering early losses.
NZD/USD technical analysis
NZD/USD trades marginally higher at around 0.5820. The pair has edged back above the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5810 while holding over the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5746, which together hint at a constructive near-term tone.
A rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.8 reinforces improving bullish momentum, though prices are still capped by the 61.80% retracement at 0.5853 just overhead.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5853, followed by the 78.60% retracement at 0.5915, with the recent swing high at the 100.00% level of 0.5994 acting as a stronger barrier if gains extend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the reclaimed 50.00% retracement at 0.5810, ahead of a minor floor around the 38.20% level at 0.5766 and the 20-day EMA at 0.5746, while deeper declines would expose the 23.60% retracement at 0.5712 and the structural anchor near 0.5625.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Risk sentiment FAQs In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.1% at around 1.3403 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar comes under selling pressure, with market participants dialing down expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, has recovered its early losses and is marginally down to near 100.87. However, the DXY is still holding Tuesday’s losses. Read more...
GBP/USD awaits political news: What will happen nextGBP/USD rose to 1.3403 on Wednesday, with British politics taking centre stage for investors.
The market is assessing the upcoming change of prime minister, with Andy Burnham set to take office on 20 July. Of additional interest is the potential candidate for the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. In betting markets, Ed Miliband is considered the favourite, whom investors perceive as a supporter of more active fiscal spending. Read more...
The GBP/JPY pair rose today, building on early-week gains despite Middle East tensions that typically favor the safe-haven yen Spiking oil prices have hurt Japan's import-dependent economy, widening its trade deficit and neutralizing the yen's traditional safe-haven status A widening interest rate gap between the BoE and BoJ fuels carry trades, keeping the pair's path toward 220.00 technically intact The British pound has strengthened against the Japanese yen for the third consecutive trading day. This move is notable as elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East typically lead to increased demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset. Examining the factors influencing this trend offers insight into current market dynamics.
How the Pound is Countering the Yen’s Safe-Haven Flows Recent military actions in the Persian Gulf and threats concerning the Strait of Hormuz have significantly impacted oil markets. While higher energy costs affect Japan, the primary driver for the GBP/JPY pair is the substantial interest rate difference between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This differential is crucial for JPY-funded carry trades.
The BoE has maintained a relatively hawkish monetary policy, with its base rate at 3.75%. Monetary Policy Committee members voted 7-2 to keep the rates unchanged in the June meeting, with two committee members actually pushing for a hike to 4%. The reasoning is telling because the BoE explicitly flagged that the war in the Middle East has driven up energy prices.
The BoE is therefore seen as hawkish compared to the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to normalization. This gap in interest rates continues to favor the pound in carry trade strategies, encouraging investors to hold or increase their GBP positions.
Although energy prices have seen some decline from their peak, the persistent risk of inflation keeps the committee in a stance that supports holding rates steady, rather than cutting them as some market participants had anticipated earlier in the year.
Economic indicators from the UK, including stable growth and inflation trends, have bolstered confidence in the pound. Conversely, the yen faces headwinds from Japan’s domestic economic policies and global interest rate differentials.
Is 220.00 Inevitable This Year? With strong underlying forces, reaching the significant psychological mark of 220.00 for GBP/JPY seems very possible, though not guaranteed. Many predictions suggest GBP/JPY will trade between 205 and 218 until 2026. This could go higher if the Bank of England keeps its policy advantage and investors are comfortable taking risks.
Investors must remain alert to two key risks. The biggest immediate risk is the Japanese Ministry of Finance directly interfering in the currency markets. If the yen drops too fast, officials in Tokyo will probably sell dollars and buy yen, which could cause a quick drop of several hundred pips in GBP/JPY.
Another risk is if an oil crisis leads to a global economic slowdown. This would cause a rapid unwinding of carry trades, meaning capital would rush back to Japan, quickly weakening the pound.
Why is GBP/JPY rising despite Middle East tensions?
The same conflict is keeping UK inflation expectations elevated. This pushes the Bank of England towards a policy that supports sterling’s attractiveness due to its yield.
Why isn’t the yen acting as a safe haven right now?
Structural concerns about Japan’s finances appear to be outweighing the yen’s traditional defensive role during this geopolitical stress period.
Should investors view current GBP/JPY gains as sustainable?
The sustainability of current GBP/JPY gains depends on continued monitoring of geopolitical developments and economic data to ensure momentum persists.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on “inside trading” on Wednesday, with price action contained within Tuesday’s range, as the pair keeps looking for direction above the $4,000 level. Rising tensions in Iran and high Oil prices have offset the positive impact from the soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
US data released on Tuesday revealed that inflationary pressures eased beyond expectations in June. Yearly CPI slowed down to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, well below the 3.8% market consensus, and monthly inflation contracted 0.4%, its largest decline in nearly six years. These figures triggered a significant repricing of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and sent the USD lower across the board
Precious metals, however, have failed to capitalise on the US Dollar’s weakness amid escalating hostilities between the US and Iran. Threats of further attacks and the closure of more energy routes are underpinning OIil prices near one-month highs, fuelling expectations of higher inflationary pressures and global monetary tightening.
Technical Analysis: Bearish momentum fades with bulls still subdued
XAU/USD trades at $4,027, still capped below the downward trend-line barrier yet with the Relative Strength Index (14) on the daily chart showing a bullish divergence as it reaches the neutral territory in the 40 area. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory yet at levels suggesting that bullish attempts remain frail.
Gold bulls should break the mentioned trendline, now around $4,100 and the July 7 high, in the $4,200 area to confirm a trend shift and gain confidence to pursue a deeper correction. On the downside, the precious metal has a cluster of supports between Thursday's low in the $4,020 area and the late October 2025 lows near $3,885.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 0.6% to near $58.00 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The white metal faces slight selling pressure despite traders scaling back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed raising interest rates in the policy meeting this month have eased to 16.6% from 41.7% recorded on Monday.
Theoretically, signs of easing hawkish Fed prospects bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
On Tuesday, the US CPI report showed that the headline and core inflation decelerated significantly to 3.5% and 2.6% year-on-year (YoY), respectively.
Meanwhile, higher oil prices due to renewed exchange of attacks between the United States (US) and Iran will likely keep the upside in the Silver price limited. Escalated energy prices have de-anchored global inflation projections, a scenario that forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.41 per troy ounce, down 0.46% from the $58.68 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.82% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.04 on Wednesday, broadly unchanged from 69.05 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Despite a sharper-than-expected decline in US CPI, from 4.2% to 3.5%, the US dollar continues to hold firm above the 100 mark while silver resumes its weakness below $60 as geopolitical risks remain elevated.
Market rebounds across major currency pairs, precious metals, and risk assets continue to face headwinds as the implications of the Middle East conflict extend into the second half of the year. Markets are increasingly being influenced by:
Disruptions to global shipping, with higher transit costs, tolls, and restricted access across parts of the Strait of Hormuz. A cautious second-half outlook from corporate management teams despite stronger-than-expected earnings from major US banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, as well as AI semiconductor leader ASML. Crude oil rebounding toward the $80 mark. Precious metals returning to critical bearish breakout zones. From an FX perspective, USD/JPY remains one of the most interesting charts. The pair is trading near levels last seen in the 1980s and could be at risk of another steep bullish breakout toward 170 should the US Dollar Index (DXY) confirm its own breakout above 102.
Across precious metals, both gold and silver are approaching major historical confluence zones:
Gold is testing a 10-year ascending trendline that has transitioned from resistance into support, alongside the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920–2026 advance. Full Gold Analysis Silver is testing a breakdown below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1930–2026 advance, while approaching a multi-decade resistance-turned-support zone near $50. I discussed these technical patterns in the latest bi-weekly webinar.
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USD/JPY Price Outlook: 4-Hour Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY continues to coil within a triangle pattern, pointing to growing bullish breakout risks above the 162.40–162.80 resistance zone. A sustained break above this area—and above 163.50—would strengthen the case for an extension toward 165, 168, and eventually 170.
These upside targets align with the 61.8%, 100%, and 127.2% Fibonacci extension levels of the May–June 2026 advance, while also converging with the upper boundary of the ascending channel that has guided price action since April 2025.
On the downside, a confirmed break below 161.10 and 160.80 would expose the lower boundary of the channel near 158. From there, prices could either stage another rebound to preserve the year-long bullish trend or extend losses toward 155 and 152, near the yearly lows. This bearish scenario would likely coincide with a DXY breakdown below the 100.30–99.30 support zone. Expanded Analysis
USD/JPY Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
The weekly chart highlights the broader one-year ascending parallel channel, with price currently trading near its midpoint. This also aligns with the midpoint of the larger channel that has been in place since 2022, creating a major technical confluence zone.
A sustained move toward 170 remains possible, while a decisive close above 170 would expose the upper boundary of the 2022–2026 channel near 180.
Although this remains an aggressive scenario and would likely increase the probability of Bank of Japan intervention, it cannot be ruled out if the US dollar extends its breakout above 102 without a meaningful policy response from the BOJ.
Silver Price Outlook: Six-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
The six-month chart continues to highlight several important long-term technical developments:
A six-month shooting star reversal pattern. A breakdown below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1930–2026 secular advance. Price approaching the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs between 1980 and 2024, which could transition from long-term resistance into major support. This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance near $46–50. The shorter-term outlook is further clarified on the daily chart below.
Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a daily perspective, silver remains capped below a descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026. At the same time, daily momentum remains below the neckline of the previous head-and-shoulders pattern, reinforcing the bearish momentum backdrop.
A breakdown below $57 would expose the longer-term support zone discussed above.
Conversely, a breakout above the resistance levels at $61, $63.80, $68, and eventually $72 would significantly increase confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit price targets over the longer term.
Key Takeaway The US Dollar Index will remain the primary benchmark for both the FX and precious metals markets as geopolitical tensions continue to evolve.
The 101.80–102.00 resistance zone remains the key level to watch. A confirmed breakout would likely strengthen the US dollar further and increase downside pressure across major currencies and precious metals during the second half of the year.
Conversely, a breakdown below 100.60, followed by 100.30 and 99.30, would ease dollar strength and improve the outlook for currencies and precious metals alike.
The USD/CHF pair attracts some dip-buyers on Wednesday and moves further away from the weekly trough, around the 0.8060 region set the previous day. Spot prices climb to a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session, with bulls looking to build on the momentum further beyond the 0.8100 mark.
As investors digest Tuesday's soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, energy-driven inflation fears resurface as escalating US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain supportive of elevated crude oil prices. This bolsters US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations and offers some support to the US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair and validates the near-term positive outlook.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and subsequent strength beyond the 0.8000 psychological mark were key triggers for bullish traders. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index keeps a constructive bullish tone and stays in positive territory near 58 without yet signaling overbought conditions. This further suggests that underlying demand remains firmly in play.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits slightly below the zero line with a modestly negative reading, hinting that upside momentum is not fully convincing despite the supportive price structure. Nevertheless, the broader bias would likely stay tilted to the upside as long as the USD/CHF pair holds above the key SMA, with any pullbacks toward 0.8000 seen as a potential opportunity for bullish traders.
Furthermore, the 200-day SMA around 0.7919 might now act as an important technical floor should spot prices retreat further, and a convincing break below would be needed to shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. On the topside, a move above the 0.8145-0.8150 region, or the highest since July 2025, touched on Tuesday, will set the stage for an extension of the recent upward trajectory from 0.7760 or the May swing low.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
USD/CAD remains subdued after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.4050 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is testing the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle. A decisive close below the lower support line would signal that the sellers have taken control, suggesting a strong continuation or reversal to the downside. If buying pressure defends the lower line, the boundary holds, suggesting the price will reverse course and head back up to test the triangle's upper resistance line.
The USD/CAD is retreating from recent highs and slipping below the short-term dynamics reflected by the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which now caps the topside. The pair still holds above the 50-period EMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 has eased out of overbought territory, hinting that bullish momentum has faded and leaving the near-term bias tilted to the downside while price remains under the nine-period EMA.
The USD/CAD pair recorded nearly a monthly low of 1.4039 during the early hours, near the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.4014. A successful break below this confluence support zone would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the 21-month low of 1.3481, recorded on January 30.
On the upside, the USD/CAD pair may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 1.4130. A break above the short-term moving average would cause a bullish emergence and support the pair to test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 1.4240, aligned with the 15-month high of 1.4248, reached on June 24.
USD/CAD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.03%-0.00%0.02%-0.04%-0.18%-0.12%0.11%EUR0.03%-0.03%0.06%-0.02%-0.20%-0.15%0.14%GBP0.00%0.03%0.07%0.00%-0.17%-0.14%0.16%JPY-0.02%-0.06%-0.07%-0.06%-0.22%-0.16%0.08%CAD0.04%0.02%-0.00%0.06%-0.15%-0.14%0.15%AUD0.18%0.20%0.17%0.22%0.15%0.03%0.29%NZD0.12%0.15%0.14%0.16%0.14%-0.03%0.28%CHF-0.11%-0.14%-0.16%-0.08%-0.15%-0.29%-0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
The AUD/JPY pair broke past the 113.00 resistance level following previous quiet six session bounds between 111.95 and 112.81 Yen weakness was fueled by interest rate differences and market confusion over speculation that Japan's massive pension fund might relocate foreign assets back home The Aussie dollar found solid fundamental support as global commodity prices remained firm despite the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East After six sessions trading within a tight range of 111.95 to 112.81, the AUD/JPY pair moved decisively higher on Tuesday. It surpassed the 113.00 psychological level and continued its ascent today, nearing 113.39. So, what changed?
Speculation Over the World’s Largest Pension Fund Triggers Yen Selloff Headlines regarding Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) appear to be the primary driver behind the yen’s recent decline. Reports suggest the government is considering encouraging the massive pension fund to increase its investments in domestic assets to support local markets and the yen. While this sounds like it should strengthen the Japanese currency, the market reacted with immediate skepticism.
This skepticism stems from past attempts by the Japanese finance ministry to support the yen, which proved costly and ineffective. As CNBC reported, Tokyo’s finance ministry burned through roughly $73 billion defending the yen back in April and May, only to watch it slide right back toward the levels it started from.
Analysts suggest the yen’s weakness is rooted in structural issues. These include Japan’s growing public debt, a government focused on reflation, and inflation expectations that are not aligning with typical interest rate differentials.
On the Aussie side, the Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked its cash rate three times this year to 4.35%. Despite holding rates steady in June, RBA meeting minutes indicated ongoing concerns about inflation exceeding the target, with core inflation accelerating even as headline inflation eased.
A Finder survey of more than 40 economists shows 55% of them expect at least one more rate hike this year, likely in August. This policy stance supports Australian yields and the carry appeal of the Australian dollar.
Commodity prices and China’s economic performance also play a significant role. Australia, as a major exporter of iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas, benefits from resilient demand from China. Positive economic indicators from Beijing have bolstered risk sentiment and AUD strength.
Market Outlook Signals Bullish Bias with Caution This breakout suggests a constructive near-term outlook for AUD/JPY, potentially targeting higher levels if policy divergence persists and global risk conditions remain favorable.
For those considering trading this breakout, entering at current levels around 113.40 presents some short-term risk. A sustained move above 113.58 on a daily closing basis would be the next key level to watch, potentially opening the way toward 113.90 and the 52-week high zone around 114.90.
Below the surface, though, this rally is fragile. A significant risk to long positions is the potential for direct market intervention by the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance to support the yen. Such action could lead to a rapid and substantial decline in the AUD/JPY pair.
Why did AUD/JPY break above 113.00 this week?
The breakout was caused by a combination of RBA rate-hike expectations supporting the Aussie and persistent yen weakness tied to Japan’s debt concerns and ineffective currency intervention.
Is the Australian dollar actually getting stronger?
The Australian dollar’s appreciation appears to be more a reflection of yen weakness than a substantial increase in the Australian dollar’s strength, although RBA policy has contributed positively.
How does China’s economy influence Australian dollar strength?
Stronger Chinese demand for commodities like iron ore and coal increases Australia’s export revenues, improving its terms of trade and supporting the AUD.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Silver has risen nearly 2%, outperforming Gold’s 1.2% gain on the back of a softer US Dollar (USD) and reduced Fed hike expectations after weak core Consumer Price Index (CPI). They highlight Silver’s higher sensitivity to monetary conditions and risk appetite, expecting larger two-way swings unless Fed tightening expectations ease more sustainably, with key support at 55 and resistance at 61.20.
Outperformance tempered by volatility risks"Silver rose nearly 2% alongside gold (about 1.2%), supported by the softer USD, some push back in Fed hike expectations after core CPI underwhelmed. The stronger rebound partly reflects silver’s higher sensitivity to shifts in both monetary conditions and investor risk appetite. Near term, silver may outperform gold if the USD and yields extend lower."
"But conviction remains limited as oil-driven inflation risks persist. Without a more sustained easing in Fed tightening expectations, silver is likely to remain prone to larger two-way swings, rather than move into a clean recovery trend. Silver last seen at 58.80 levels."
"Daily momentum and RSI have yet to offer a clean read at this point. Two-way trades likely. Support at 55 levels (recent low year-to-date) before 49."
"Resistance at 61.20 (21 DMA) needs to be taken out for momentum to gain traction. Failing which, silver may well revert to trade near recent lows."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.1% at around 1.3403 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar comes under selling pressure, with market participants dialing down expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, has recovered its early losses and is marginally down to near 100.87. However, the DXY is still holding Tuesday’s losses.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates in the policy meeting this month have eased to 16.6% from 41.7% recorded on Monday.
Traders pare hawkish Fed bets as the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed on Tuesday that both headline and core inflation grew at a slower-than-expected pace.
In the United Kingdom (UK), Andy Burnham is set to replace Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer on July 20 and will likely appoint a new Finance Minister (FM). The smooth UK leadership transition is supporting the British Pound.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades slightly higher at around 1.3400, holding a mildly bullish near‑term bias as it remains above the 20‑period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3350. However, the overall trend appears sideways amid the Descending Triangle formation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.93 suggests steady, but not overextended, upside momentum.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the current price area around 1.3401, with the 20‑period EMA at 1.3350 reinforcing a nearby demand zone before the structural floor defined by the rising trend‑line break near 1.3166. On the topside, a sustained move above 1.3520, where the descending resistance trend line break level resides, would be needed to open the door for a more decisive bullish extension beyond the recent range. Above 1.3520, the pair could extend its advance towards 1.3600.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Silver’s recovery lost momentum below the $60 mark this week despite softer-than-expected US inflation, highlighting a macro backdrop that has become less supportive than many investors anticipated. Ordinarily, a downside surprise in CPI would trigger a broader Dollar selloff and provide precious metals with a meaningful tailwind. This time, however, the Dollar’s decline proved relatively shallow and uneven, while buying interest in Silver remained subdued. Together, those factors have kept the metal trapped within its recent trading range and preserved a bearish near-term outlook.
The first headwind has been the Dollar itself. Although the Dollar Index initially fell following June’s weaker CPI report, it recovered a meaningful portion of those losses after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability while avoiding any dovish policy signals during his congressional testimony. The Dollar’s weakness was also concentrated in a handful of currencies with their own domestic catalysts, particularly the Canadian Dollar, supported by stronger oil prices and a more hawkish Bank of Canada outlook, and the New Zealand Dollar following hawkish comments from RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway. Against the Euro, Sterling, Swiss Franc and Yen, Dollar weakness was comparatively modest. Without a broad-based decline in the US currency, Silver has struggled to attract the sustained buying that typically follows softer US inflation.
Muted demand has reinforced that pressure. While positioning data are not yet available to confirm investor behavior, price action suggests opportunistic buying following the CPI release was considerably weaker than in previous episodes of Dollar weakness. The inability to reclaim the $60 level despite an ostensibly supportive inflation report indicates that buyers remain cautious, leaving the metal vulnerable if the Dollar regains strength or Treasury yields move higher again.
Beyond the immediate macro backdrop, Silver also faces a more structural challenge through industrial demand. The market is currently in its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit, but unlike many commodities, higher prices do not necessarily generate a meaningful increase in supply. Around 70% of global Silver production comes as a by-product of copper, lead and zinc mining, meaning output decisions depend primarily on those metals rather than Silver prices. New mine development also typically requires seven to ten years, leaving demand adjustment as the principal mechanism for balancing the market.
That demand adjustment may already be underway. China’s largest solar manufacturer, Longi Green Energy, has begun commercial production using copper-metallized solar cells, reducing reliance on Silver in one of the metal’s fastest-growing industrial applications. Given that the solar sector accounted for roughly 17% of global Silver demand last year, broader adoption of copper metallization could gradually weaken one of Silver’s most important structural demand drivers. The transition is unlikely to transform the market overnight, but it represents a notable shift in the long-term balance between supply and demand.
Technically, the outlook remains bearish while resistance at 63.25 caps upside. A break below 55.59 would resume the broader decline from the record high of 121.83 to o 76.4% retracement of 28.28 to 121.83 at 50.35, which is close to 50 psychological level.
Conversely, sustained break above 63.25 would delay the bearish scenario and extend the corrective rebound toward with another rising leg to 38.2% retracement of 89.37 to 55.59 at 68.49 instead.
Until the Dollar weakens more broadly, however, Silver appears increasingly vulnerable to another leg lower.
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AUDUSD (The Australian dollar) remained choppy as consumer confidence jumped out of negative territory.
• As the pair searches for a recovery to the previous swing high at 0.6980, a bearish RSI divergence could signal a halt to the potential rally.
• 0.6960 is the first level to expect some resistance after the recent announcement.
• Further down, 0.6880 at the bottom of the latest bounce is the first layer of support if price action turns around.
• A full reversal can take shape back towards 0.6840 if bears remain in the market.
XAUUSD steadily sinking
Gold continues to be pressured as price action looks to break through the 4000 level.
• On the chart, the metal continues to grind lower after dropping over $100 in just a few short sessions.
• Bulls will need to lift 4120 and then 4190 to make the rebound count.
• Otherwise, renewed selling could send the price below 3930.
UK100 finding support
The index market across the board looks for a reprieve as energy prices are expected to rise.
• The FTSE 100 hit another low after last week’s sell-off.
• 10350 is a key level to keep the index afloat, as its breach could trigger a further continuation lower.
• Bulls will need to clear 10600 to put the index back on track as the RSI moves away from the oversold area, potentially causing a bullish divergence in the process.
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The GBP/JPY cross scales higher for the second straight day and climbs to a fresh weekly top, around the 217.70 region, during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Moreover, spot prices remain within striking distance of the highest level since January 2008 and seem poised to appreciate further amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.
Despite looming intervention risks, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance on the back of the wide gap in borrowing costs between Japan and other major economies, including the UK. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the short-term policy rate in June to 1% or, the highest level since 1995, while the Bank of England's (BoE) base rate sits at 3.75%. This leaves an approximate gap of 275 basis points (bps), which keeps the so-called JPY carry trade active and continues to act as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.
Meanwhile, Japan's economy is highly vulnerable to energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz as it relies on the Middle East for over 90% of crude oil imports. The closure of the critical waterway, along with a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, turns out to be another factor undermining the JPY. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, benefits from fading UK political uncertainty, hawkish BoE signals, and modest US Dollar (USD) weakness. This validates the positive outlook for the GBP/JPY cross and favors bulls.
Speaking before the Treasury Select Committee, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned on Tuesday of the potential effects of the resumption of the US-Iran conflict and that the event has demonstrated that inflation has not eased enough. Traders were quick to fully price in at least one 25 bps rate increase by year-end, and a possible first hike as early as September. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the upside, and any corrective pullback is more likely to be seen as an opportunity for bullish traders.
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Commodity-linked currencies strengthened after US inflation data came in weaker than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.5% year-on-year in June, below the 3.8% forecast, while core inflation eased to 2.6% versus expectations of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, while core CPI was unchanged. The moderation in inflationary pressure increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative policy stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting both the Australian and Canadian dollars against the greenback.
However, despite the weaker US dollar, the next move in USD/CAD will largely depend on the Bank of Canada’s policy decision. Later today, the central bank will announce its interest rate decision, publish its updated Monetary Policy Report, and hold a press conference with the Governor. If policymakers maintain a cautiously hawkish tone on inflation, the Canadian dollar could receive additional support. Conversely, a more dovish message may limit CAD gains despite the broader weakness in the US dollar.
Market participants will also focus on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide further insight into inflation trends following the softer CPI report. In addition, US crude oil inventory data could influence USD/CAD, as oil prices traditionally have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar.
AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair continues to develop the bullish engulfing reversal pattern. Yesterday, buyers managed to test the key resistance level around 0.7000. If the pair secures a sustained break above this level, the rally could extend towards the 0.7080–0.7130 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a move below 0.6900.
Key events for AUD/USD:
Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Market Index Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI) Today at 15:45 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member John Williams
USD/CAD Following confirmation of the bearish tower top reversal pattern, selling pressure on USD/CAD intensified, reinforced by the weaker-than-expected US inflation data. As a result, the pair declined below 1.4100. Technical analysis suggests there is scope for a further move lower towards the 1.3960–1.4020 area. A decisive break back above 1.4120 could revive the bullish outlook.
Key events for USD/CAD:
Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada interest rate decision Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada press conference
Overall, the weaker US inflation report strengthened expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve, weighing on the US dollar and supporting commodity-linked currencies. However, the next moves in AUD/USD and USD/CAD will depend on upcoming economic data and the Bank of Canada’s policy guidance.
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GBP/USD rose to 1.3403 on Wednesday, with British politics taking centre stage for investors.
The market is assessing the upcoming change of prime minister, with Andy Burnham set to take office on 20 July. Of additional interest is the potential candidate for the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. In betting markets, Ed Miliband is considered the favourite, whom investors perceive as a supporter of more active fiscal spending.
At the same time, market participants are monitoring escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and increased inflation risks. The United States has continued its strikes on Iran following Donald Trump’s restoration of a naval blockade on Iranian shipping and his proposal for a 20% fee to cover the costs of securing the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, markets have strengthened expectations of further rate hikes from the Bank of England. Investors are now almost fully pricing in two rate increases in 2026, with a September hike already largely reflected in quotes.
In the US, weaker-than-expected inflation data for June has eased pressure on the Federal Reserve. However, Christopher Waller warned that the regulator could tighten policy again if inflation remains above the 2% target.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is shaping a growth wave towards 1.3451. A wide consolidation range is practically forming around the 1.3393 level. An upside breakout from this range would open potential for the wave to continue to 1.3453. A downside breakout would suggest the potential for the wave to continue to 1.3333, with the prospect of the trend extending to 1.3090. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above the zero level and pointing strictly downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3400 level, currently extending down to 1.3370. An increase to 1.3451 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3330. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20.
Conclusion GBP/USD has edged higher as markets focus on the upcoming UK political transition, with Andy Burnham set to become prime minister on 20 July. The potential appointment of Ed Miliband as Chancellor-seen as favouring more active fiscal spending-adds an element of intrigue. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed US strikes on Iran and a proposed 20% fee for securing the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed oil prices higher and reinforced Bank of England tightening expectations. Markets are now pricing in two rate hikes for 2026, with September already priced in. In the US, softer inflation data has eased pressure on the Fed, though officials remain vigilant. Technically, the pound may see further upside towards 1.3451 before a potential pullback, with the broader direction hinging on UK political developments and geopolitical risks.
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US Dollar News: Softer Inflation Reshapes Fed Outlook The evolving monetary policies, particularly with the release of June’s inflation numbers in the United States, are causing shifts in the value of the dollar, sterling and the euro. U.S. annual inflation for July fell to 3.5% from June’s 4.2%, with core inflation also falling, to 2.6%. This caused a rapid decrease in the projected likelihood of a July 28-29 Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Demand for U.S. futures implied only a 10% likelihood of a July hike. Earlier estimates placed U.S. interest rate hikes at a 35% probability, indicating the bulk of interest rate conjecture has moved to September.
The euro has risen in value with speculation that the European Central Bank will keep the deposit rate at 2.25% and also Curb inflation and growth in the euro region.
The pound also remains strong as it is expected the Bank of England will continue to err on the side of caution. U.K. inflation has also been little influenced by renewed Middle Eastern conflict. Governor Andrew Bailey remains focused on other economic data.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Is DXY Building Momentum for a Move Toward $101.22? Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around the 100.88 mark, consolidating above the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement at $100.59 and the 50 EMA at $100.23. The 100 EMA at $99.66 is helping the uptrend. The last few DXY candlesticks display small bodies showing consolidation below $101.22, right after the bullish breakout from the previous descending triangle. $100.88 is the 0.382 Fibonacci level and is providing immediate support, while resistance sits at $101.22 and $101.79 respectively.
The RSI is at approximately 53, above the midpoint, and is showing a decrease in bullish momentum, but the uptrend is still there. As long as we observe DXY above $100.59, we can expect another attempt to reach $101.22, but if that fails, we may see $99.85.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Can the Rising Channel Extend the Rally Above $1.3450? GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.3405 and stays well within the confines of a rising channel on the 4 hour time frame. Price is above both the 50 EMA at 1.3370 and the 100 EMA at 1.3340 indicates that traders are still dominating the buying side of the market. Recent rejections of the 1.3400 support level have resulted in the formation of higher lows along the rising channel line. The most immediate resistance is found at 1.3453, while 1.3508 is a secondary resistance level.
The most significant support level is at 1.3342. The RSI is at 56 and indicates a bullish market, while the RSI is not at the overbought zone. Based on this market analysis I will be looking for buying opportunities above the 1.3400 level, the target being 1.3453 and with a break below the 1.3342 level the buy side market structure will be broken and this will be an indication of potential reversal in the market.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Will the Symmetrical Triangle Trigger the Next Breakout? EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is priced at 1.1423 and is forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-H chart. The price is around the 50 EMA at 1.1420 but is below the 100 EMA at 1.1435. This shows that buyers and sellers have not taken control of the market. The latest candlesticks show small bodies and long wicks suggesting indecision as the triangle’s apex is approached.
The first nearby resistance is at 1.1461, and the first nearby support is at 1.1412, then 1.1379. The RSI is at 51 and shows no market pressure, which supports consolidation. Given this analysis, I would prefer to see a confirmed breakout beyond 1.1461 with targets set at 1.1493. However, if the price closed below 1.1412, the target would be 1.1379.
