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Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels USD/CHF has spent four consecutive weeks pressing a major pivot zone at uptrend resistance. The repeated failure to break higher is increasing the importance of this technical barrier for the broader uptrend. A decisive close above resistance would confirm uptrend resumption and expose the next major upside objectives. A break below the monthly range low would be the first indication that bullish momentum is fading and a larger correction may be underway. The economic calendar is relatively light, leaving geopolitical developments as the most likely catalyst for the next directional move. Resistance 8103, 8200/15 (key), 8333– Support 8037, 8009 (key), 7827/39 USD/CHF is entering a decisive phase after spending nearly a month unable to clear a major technical barrier. Although the January uptrend remains constructive, repeated rejection from the same zone has increased the risk that momentum begins to fade unless buyers force a convincing breakout. With price still holding above rising trend support and geopolitical developments likely to drive sentiment, the next move could determine whether the broader advance resumes or gives way to a deeper correction. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF was, “testing uptrend resistance at a key pivot zone. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 8009 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with ac close above 8103 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/CHF closed at 8100 that week before pulling back with decline registering in intraweek low at 8010 the following week. The subsequent recovery takes USD/CHF back into pivotal resistance of a fourth consecutive week and the focus remains on possible inflection off this zone with the long-bias still vulnerable while below 8103.

Initial weekly support now rests with the monthly close low at 8037- note the median line converges on this level next week. Ultimately, a break below the March high-week close (HWC) at 8009 would be needed to threaten a deeper correction within the January uptrend towards the objective yearly open and the 52-week moving average near 7927/39 (bullish invalidation). Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A topside breach / weekly close above the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8103 is needed to mark uptrend resumption. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 100% extension of the January advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 8200/15. Note that the upper parallel converges on this zone over the next few weeks and represents an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Strength beyond this threshold is needed to fuel the next major phase of the rally towards the 2024 lows at 8333.

           

Bottom line: USD/CHF is trading into a pivotal resistance zone for the fourth consecutive week and although the technical outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance remains vulnerable while below. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a breakout of this range just above the median line- losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above the 75% parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.

The economic calendar is relatively light next week, leaving developments surrounding the conflict with Iran as the primary catalyst for shifts in market sentiment. Watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts Gold (XAU/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

Underneath that price, the structural picture has not changed. The market is on track for its sixth consecutive annual deficit, forecast at 46.3 million ounces for 2026 by Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, meaning the world is set to use more silver than it produces for the sixth year running. What moved in the last two weeks is the policy wrapped around that supply. Two things happened in Washington, neither of them about silver, and both touch the ground silver comes from.

Washington Puts North American Trade on a Yearly Clock On July 1 the three governments held the first mandatory joint review of the USMCA, the North American trade agreement, on its sixth anniversary. The review asked one question: would all three confirm an extension for a further sixteen years? The United States said no. In the words of US Trade Representative Greer, it “did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form.” Mexico and Canada both supported extending it.

It is worth being precise about what that did and did not do, because the headlines were louder than the event. Nothing expired. The agreement remains fully in force and its own terms run to July 1, 2036. What the refusal triggered is the fallback written into the treaty: instead of a settled sixteen-year extension, the three parties now hold a joint review every year until they either agree to extend or the agreement lapses in 2036. The extension remains available at any time if all three sign off. So exporters did not lose access; they lost certainty. And the bargaining is live, with Washington pressing for stricter rules of origin and a further round with Mexico set for the week of July 20.

Greer tied the refusal to the agreement’s shortcomings and to US trade deficits with the two countries. He attached no figures to it. The official data do: the US goods deficit with Mexico ran $196.9 billion in 2025 on a Census basis, behind only the European Union and China.

For silver, the address matters more than the arithmetic. Mexico is the world’s largest silver-producing country, at 172.9 million ounces in 2025 according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, ahead of Peru at 130.6 million and China at 112.8 million. Against global mine production of 846.6 million ounces, that is roughly one ounce in five. Putting that jurisdiction’s trade terms on a yearly cycle closes no mine and cancels no shipment. It does mean the largest single slice of the world’s silver now sits under a question reopened every twelve months instead of every sixth year.

A second clock runs alongside it. The 10% import surcharge imposed under Section 122 in February reaches its 150-day statutory ceiling on July 24 and expires automatically, since only Congress can extend it. Properly claimed USMCA-origin goods were exempt from that surcharge in any case, which is exactly why the agreement’s status is worth watching: an exemption is only as durable as the framework behind it.

The US declined to renew USMCA in its current form, keeping copper tariffs and a pending refined-copper duty in play while Mexico’s silver output — about a fifth of global mine supply — sits exposed to the fallout. Source: Sources: USTR — Greer Statement on USMCA Joint Review | White House — Proclamation 10962, Adjusting Imports of Copper Into the United States | BEA — US International Trade in Goods and Services, Annual 2025 | Trade Law Counsel — Section 122 Surcharge Sunsets July 24 | Congressional Research Service — Section 232 National Security Tariffs on Copper Imports | TradingKey — COMEX Copper Inventories Hit Record | Metals Focus and the Silver Institute — World Silver Survey 2026 What This Means to Silver Investors Start with what did not happen, because it is most of the story. No ounces were removed. The USMCA is in force, Mexican silver still crosses the border, and an annual review is a process change, not a tariff. The refined-copper duty has not been decided at all, and the copper measures that do exist specifically exempt the ores and concentrates that carry byproduct silver. This is a change in the terms silver travels under, and for now only a possible one.

What it does is add friction and a standing risk premium to the ounces the market most needs, on top of a balance that is already short. That is worth watching precisely because it is slow. There is no announcement day for it and no headline saying supply fell. It shows up as a wider gap between where silver is mined and where it is used.

The honest counterweight deserves full weight. The survey itself expects Mexican production to return to growth in 2026, after falling three years running, including a 5% drop in 2025. So the jurisdiction now under the annual clock is the one part of supply that may actually improve, and trade friction and mine output are different things. The first does not automatically damage the second.

Where it lands is alongside the rest of the policy squeeze. In Issue #19, I discussed the split between a rebuilding New York vault and a rising Shanghai premium, with Beijing narrowing its export valve at the same time. Put them together and the supply chain feeding a 46.3 million ounce deficit is being handled at both ends by governments, for reasons that have nothing to do with silver and cannot be undone by its price. None of this points to a level on the chart, and I would be wary of anyone who says it does. The longer-term case for silver rests on a structural deficit and a supply base that cannot easily grow, and policy keeps adding to the cost of reaching that base.

North American trade friction is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter. Get full Silver Catalyst Newsletter and Silver Rising book today.

Thank you.

The Silver Engineer

Gold price drops over 1.80% as tensions between the US and Iran fuel fears of a possible Oil supply disruption, driving energy prices higher and potentially triggering another round of inflation. The XAU/USD trades at $3,994.

XAU/USD drops as energy risks lift Dollar and yieldsThe effects of the Middle East conflict are well reflected by the strength of the US Dollar. The Greenback is up some 0.24%, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s value against its peers, is at 100.74, still shy of revisiting the 101.00 mark.

The US currency appreciates due to its positive correlation with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price, which despite trading modestly lower during the day is up over 13% in July. This heightens speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year.

US economic data was also positive during the day with Retail Sales expanding by 0.2% MoM in June, as expected, but below May’s 1% increase — driven mostly by higher gasoline prices. Control Group Retail Sales, used primarily in calculating the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), slowed from 0.8% to 0.5% as expected.

US jobs data was also solid, as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 11 came at 208K, beneath forecasts of a 217K increase. The Fed’s Beige Book acknowledged that the labour market is strong, with some districts showing “modest, moderate or solid gains.”

US Treasury yields are drifting higher, with the US 10-year T-note rising by nearly 3 basis points (bps) to 4.577%.

Comments by Fed Regional Bank Presidents Lorie Logan and Jeffrey Schmid revealed that both lean hawkish on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Logan from the Dallas Fed calls for a modestly higher policy rate to better balance the outlook and risks. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed's Schmid said that the labour market seems to be roughly stable, but that he remains concerned as “inflation is proving persistent across a broad selection of goods and services.”

Money markets expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at the July meeting, with odds of a hold at 73%. However, the chances for an October rate hike remain high, at 57%, according to Prime Terminal data.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s downtrend extends, eyes on $3,900Gold’s trend remains bearish, reaching a new 13-day low of $3,974, which if decisively cleared opens the door for a move toward the year-to-date low of $3,941. On further weakness, bears could drive XAU to test the $3,900 milestone before challenging the October 28, 2025 swing low at $3,886.

On the other hand, for a bullish reversal Bullion must clear a downslope resistance trendline between $4,125 and $4,175. Once cleared, a move to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,305 is on the cards. Overhead lies the 200-day SMA at $4,495, which once hurdled clears the path to $4,500.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The latest trading sessions have not been fully decisive for short-term euro movements. For now, EUR/USD continues to show a lack of clear direction, after gaining close to 0.4% during the previous session but posting an average decline of -0.23% in the current session.

This behavior highlights a lack of consistent strength in the euro. So far, the European currency remains pressured by the relative strength of the U.S. dollar and by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve. If this effect continues, a phase of indecision could remain relevant in EUR/USD movements over the next few trading sessions.

Is the dollar still applying pressure? After the release of some inflation figures in the United States, such as CPI and PPI, the market began to price in the possibility of a less aggressive Federal Reserve. This initially affected U.S. dollar strength and allowed the euro to recover some ground at the beginning of the week.

However, this dynamic has not fully held. During the current session, a new shift has been observed in the probability table for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions. Now, the market assigns a probability above 48% to a possible interest rate increase at the September 16 decision, which would take the rate toward a new area near 4.00%.

At the same time, there is a slightly lower probability of 45.7% that rates will remain unchanged in September. This dynamic is relevant because it positions the Federal Reserve as one of the few central banks still maintaining an aggressive monetary policy outlook.

Source: CMEGROUP

This scenario remains important for U.S. dollar strength in the short term. The currency has not managed to consolidate clear weakness, partly because the market remains cautious about what the Federal Reserve may decide.

This is reflected in the behavior of the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers. Despite the weakness observed at the beginning of the week, the index continues to trade above the 100-point level.

This suggests that demand for U.S. dollars remains relevant and could be limiting the euro’s ability to recover ground consistently in the short term.

Source: TradingEconomics

Expectations around U.S. monetary policy have also affected the bond market. For now, 10-year U.S. bonds remain more attractive than European bonds, with yields holding above the 4.5% area despite the weakness seen at the beginning of the week.

Although 10-year European bonds have managed to recover, they are still trading near 3.5%, below U.S. securities. This difference continues to favor dollar-denominated investments, as the market still does not fully price in a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve.

If the yield differential remains in place, the relative appeal of dollar-denominated assets could continue to be more consistent compared to euro-denominated investments.

Source: TradingEconomics

Therefore, the euro’s outlook remains complex. For now, there has been no relevant shift in Federal Reserve expectations that would suggest stronger weakness in U.S. bonds or the dollar.

This scenario could limit the euro’s recovery against the dollar in the short term and maintain a relevant phase of indecision in EUR/USD over the next few trading sessions.

Technical forecast for EUR/USD

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Bearish trend still dominates: Despite EUR/USD’s recovery attempts in recent sessions, price has still not managed to clearly change the technical outlook on the daily chart. The multi-month bearish pressure remains relevant and, for now, bullish movements have not been enough to confirm a change in direction. If price fails to break above more important technical zones, the selling bias could continue to influence the pair’s movements over the next few sessions.
  RSI: Now, the RSI line remains near the neutral 50 level. This suggests that the average of buying and selling impulses over the last 14 sessions remains balanced. This reading reflects a phase of indecision that could remain relevant in the chart’s movements, where no clear market direction is currently visible.
  TRIX: In the TRIX, the indicator line remains below the 0 zone, indicating that the average strength of long-term exponential moving averages continues to show a selling bias in the broader chart outlook. However, the recent flattening of the curve suggests a slowdown in short-term selling momentum, which is also highlighting a potential phase of relevant indecision.
  Key levels:

1.15127 – Relevant resistance: This important high level coincides with a retracement area from previous weeks and with the barrier formed by the 50-period moving average. Price movements attempting to break above this level could start to put the long bearish trend line at risk and open room for a more dominant buying bias over the coming trading weeks.
  1.14253 – Near-term barrier: This level corresponds to the most relevant average retracement area at the moment and works as the most important short-term neutrality reference. Price movements too close to this level could continue to reinforce a phase of indecision and maintain relevant neutrality over the next few sessions.
  1.12851 – Definitive support: This level is associated with a neutral area observed in May 2025 and now acts as the main support to watch. If price continues to move closer to this area, the selling bias would be reinforced and the possibility of an extension of the bearish trend line as the dominant chart structure over the coming weeks would increase.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

JPY, USD/JPY Talking Points: I looked into this on Monday and it was my first article in more than two months, looking at what I thought to be one of the more important and impactful macro themes across markets. While many retail traders think intervention is a simple task and the exchange rate of one of the world’s largest markets is easily manipulated, the reality is that USD/JPY is a free market and any meddling from policymakers comes with possibility of consequences. USD/JPY is on the verge of testing a breakout and I think this is an important time to revisit the manner, as I’ve seen multiple retail traders pointing to 163 as a point of possible resistance with the hope that the Japanese government might take effort to defend the level. This seems very similar to the episode we had back in 2022 at 150, or 2024 with 151.95 and then 160. We saw this pop up again earlier this year, as USD/JPY was testing for another break of the 160 level, which eventually took place in both March and April followed by a prolonged breakout in June that remains in-place today.

At this point the USD/JPY pair holds a bull pennant formation and buyers have exhibited strong control of the trend. As written on Monday, the CPI-fueled pullback was but an opportunity for buyers to load up at lower prices, and this is at least partly why the pair is on verge of breakout now despite below-expected prints from both CPI and PPI.

This is the trend talking, as prices have continued to rally even in light of what would normally be expected as bearish drivers.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

The Reality of Intervention It’s often the loudest traders that are the least experienced. Being through more and more of these scenarios highlights just how much we don’t or can’t know about what’s going to happen. So in a way it’s almost as if humility must be earned to be learned and that then pushes the traders focus to survival when encountering the unknown, rather than pure unbridled greed.

While threats of intervention, or even interventions themselves can produce counter-trend moves, the reality is that fundamental forces remain important and impactful. But it’s not as simple as looking at central bank rates to say that US rates are higher and Japanese rates are lower so the price should move in a linear manner. No, there’s more nuance than that, and this is where the role of expectations come into play. And when we have a backdrop where the US may be going into a phase where rate cuts could come into play, or maybe even a phase were slower rate hikes might be in the picture, that could precipitate a sell-off.

This explains what showed in Q4 of 2022 and while an intervention at 151.95 is often credited with stopping the rally in the pair, that move really just stalled the breakout. It was a below-expected CPI print in November of that year that finally allowed for the breakdown. And despite the still-favorable rate advantage to the US, the USD/JPY trade had become crowded and the prospect of change allowed for a strong reversal that lasted over the next couple of months.

But by mid-January the longs that wanted to close had already done so, and the fundamental disparity again came back into the picture.

Since then, the US has been through two phases of rate cuts and now with inflation remaining high and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sounding more hawkish than what many expected a Trump appointee to sound, USD-strength has been back in the picture over the past couple of months, and that’s helped to drive a fresh forty year high in the USD/JPY pair.

As looked at on Monday, this puts emphasis on the next logical round price higher, which is the 165 level that was last in-play back in 1986. So far – there’s been a degree of stalling inside of that level, with 163.00 currently showing as near-term resistance.

USD/JPY Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Friday Fireworks Going into the weekend presents a couple of risks as Japan closes for the week well ahead of the US, and this raises the possibility of a resistance test and perhaps even a breakout while much of the country is on their way into the weekend. For something like this, where there’s like a litany of stops sitting around or just above 163.00, that can fast turn into a short-squeeze type of scenario that propels price up towards a 165.00 type of area.

That outcome is, unfortunately, difficult to trade at this point given how close price already is to resistance.

But perhaps more enticing is if we do see some form of threat of intervention or tighter policy, a pullback can similarly be seen as opportunistic, much like I referred to on Monday when looking ahead to US CPI and PPI data.

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

The Pound Sterling trims some of its Wednesday gains versus the US Dollar, down by over 0.48% following solid US data. The sell-off comes amid risk aversion and augments the safe-haven appeal of the Greenback. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3375, after peaking near 1.3545. Read More...

British Pound remains muted as UK monthly GDP rises 0.1%, as expectedThe British Pound (GBP) remains almost muted against its major currency peers after the release of the monthly United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for May. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that the economy expanded 0.1%, as expected, after contracting at a similar pace in April. Read More...

British Pound weakens below 1.3550 on renewed US strikes on IranThe GBP/USD pair declines to near 1.3530 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as renewed conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have reignited energy-driven inflation risks. Traders brace for the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and the US Retail Sales data, which are due later on Thursday. Read More...

What I think we’re looking at now is a clash between short-term trend traders and long-term investors.

The short-term trader is looking at the series of lower-tops and lower-bottoms and thinking downtrend. The long-term investor is looking at a market sitting inside 50% to 61.8% of its all-time high. The problem is, the long-term investor can keep lowering his passive bid and dragging the whole market down with him.

I can see that the daily swing chart indicates a possible change in trend to up on a trade through $63.28. A move through this level will break the pattern of lower tops. But until the long-term buyers settle on value and the short-term buyers start aggressively taking out offers, I think we’re going to see this same back and fill trading that we’ve seen over the past month.

Traders see 50% to 61.8% retracement zone form all the time on the daily chart and they seem to be more aggressive when they see them. We’re now testing 50% to 61.8% of the all-time high and I don’t sense that aggressiveness even with some silver experts still predicting $300 prices.

What to Watch Oil is setting silver’s direction right now and that is not going to change until crude pulls back or the Middle East escalation produces a genuine de-escalation headline. The June inflation data and the weak payrolls report gave the market every reason to rally this week and silver gave it all back Thursday because the forward inflation picture changed faster than the backward-looking data could support a sustained move. The Fed is caught between soft employment and rising energy costs, and until that resolves, rallies in silver are likely to attract sellers.

Sellers broke the June 24 bottom at $55.60 Thursday and reaffirmed the downtrend, but the market is sitting inside the long-term value zone off the all-time high and bounced from $55.39. The clash between short-term trend traders pressing lower and long-term investors looking for value at these levels is the technical story, and the passive bidding that has defined this market for the past month has only produced lower lows. A trade through $63.28 would break the pattern of lower tops, but getting there requires a catalyst the data alone has not been able to deliver while oil keeps repricing the inflation outlook.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Australian dollar rallies toward major resistance as RBA rate hike odds swing sharply and the US Dollar Index continues to weaken. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, breaks down the key levels driving the move and what traders are watching next.

Why Is EUR/USD Rising Despite Weak Eurozone Growth? At first glance, the euro’s recent rebound appears counterintuitive. The eurozone economy continues to struggle, with economists cutting growth forecasts for a fourth consecutive quarter. Reuters’ latest survey now projects the economy to expand by just 0.5% in 2026, while quarterly growth is expected to remain stuck around 0.2%.

Recent data have done little to improve sentiment. Eurozone industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.2% month-on-month in May, reversing April’s revised 0.3% increase, while business surveys continue to point to slowing manufacturing activity as companies grapple with weak demand and rising production costs.

Ordinarily, this combination of slowing growth and weaker industrial activity would weigh heavily on the euro. Instead, the single currency has found support from the growing divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve.

The ECB is widely expected to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% next week. However, markets continue to anticipate another increase later this year, with September viewed as the most likely window. According to a recent Reuters poll, around 70% of economists now expect one additional ECB rate hike this year, compared with roughly 60% only a month ago.

The reason is not stronger domestic demand—it is the renewed threat of imported inflation through higher energy prices.

Meanwhile, the U.S. inflation picture continues to move in the opposite direction. June consumer prices posted their largest monthly decline since April 2020, with headline CPI falling 0.4% month-on-month, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%. Core CPI was unchanged over the month, slowing to 2.6% year-on-year, while producer prices unexpectedly declined 0.3%, reinforcing expectations that underlying inflation pressures continue to ease.

Daily EUR/USD Chart – Source: TradingView The daily chart suggests the EUR/USD is stabilizing following two consecutive bullish sessions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reclaimed the neutral 50 threshold, signaling a gradual recovery in upward momentum. However, the broader technical outlook remains neutral. Because the pair continues to trade below the Ichimoku cloud, buyers have yet to regain decisive control of the medium-term trend.

Levels to Watch

Resistance Zone: 1.1504 & 1.1566. A clean break above these levels—and a push through the Ichimoku cloud—would validate a stronger bullish reversal. Support Zone: 1.1405 & 1.1349. A break below these levels would add downward pressure to the EUR/USD. Looking ahead, next week’s ECB meeting will undoubtedly attract most of the attention. However, traders should avoid focusing solely on interest-rate guidance. If European gas prices continue to climb, markets may increasingly price in a more hawkish ECB while simultaneously becoming more concerned about the eurozone’s deteriorating growth outlook.

Conversely, any easing in geopolitical tensions that brings gas prices lower could improve the region’s growth prospects while allowing the euro to benefit from the widening policy gap with the Federal Reserve.

The key risk for euro bulls is that a prolonged energy shock eventually shifts the market’s focus away from higher interest rates and back toward recession risks. In periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. dollar has historically benefited from safe-haven demand, while the United States remains considerably less vulnerable than Europe to imported energy shocks thanks to its domestic oil and gas production.

Sources: Reuters, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Eurostat, Fed, ECB

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EUR/USD trades with a downside bias on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) steadies following recent losses driven by softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1457, down modestly on the day.

Market sentiment remains fragile as renewed tensions in the Middle East push Oil prices higher, raising concerns that June's inflation slowdown may prove short-lived. This is limiting the downside in the US Dollar as traders continue to expect a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.60 after falling to 100.35 on Wednesday, its lowest level since June 18.

The Greenback found additional support after the latest US labour market data showed that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 208K in the week ending July 11. The reading was below the 217K forecast.

US Retail Sales rose 0.2% MoM in June, in-line with expectations. May's reading was slightly revised upward to 1.0% from 0.9%. The Retail Sales Control Group also came in as expected at 0.5%, down from May's 0.8% increase.

On the geopolitical front, the US carried out a fifth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, while Tehran responded by targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

Reuters reported, citing sources, that Iran had instructed Yemen’s Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea if the US attacks its power network. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading near $80 and gaining around 12% so far this week.

Higher energy prices have also revived expectations of another European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike. A Reuters poll released on Thursday showed that all 74 economists expect the ECB to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% at its July meeting, while a 70% majority expect one more increase this year, most likely in September.

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.10%0.21%0.05%-0.18%-0.04%-0.04%0.30%EUR-0.10%0.11%-0.04%-0.27%-0.06%-0.13%0.20%GBP-0.21%-0.11%-0.13%-0.37%-0.18%-0.24%0.11%JPY-0.05%0.04%0.13%-0.25%-0.02%-0.10%0.25%CAD0.18%0.27%0.37%0.25%0.22%0.15%0.49%AUD0.04%0.06%0.18%0.02%-0.22%-0.05%0.28%NZD0.04%0.13%0.24%0.10%-0.15%0.05%0.33%CHF-0.30%-0.20%-0.11%-0.25%-0.49%-0.28%-0.33% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The silver daily chart shows price at the bottom of its range, with a potential death cross forming overhead. Source: TradingView. The silver market continues to see a lot of negativity as we are trying to break to a fresh new low as the interest rates in America continue to climb. Higher interest rates end up being pretty negative for silver a lot of times, and we are seeing that play out in the charts at this juncture. I do not think this is a market that is going to suddenly be easier to deal with, and the volatility will continue to be a major issue. Ultimately, this is a potential situation where, if the breakdown occurs, it will be a simple continuation of the overall negativity that we have seen for the last couple of months. This could be a sign that something bigger is afoot at the moment.

Consolidation Ranges and EMA Intersections A rally at this point in time could see the $60 level as a bit of a magnet for price. It’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it’s also worth noting that we have sliced through it multiple times, and therefore, we are at the bottom of what could look like a short-term consolidation range. This could be changing soon, though, if the recent move is starting to pick away at a support level.

GBP/JPY trades with a mild negative bias on Thursday, taking a breather after climbing to its highest level since December 2007 the previous day, as the British Pound benefited from easing political uncertainty and expectations of greater fiscal discipline.

At the time of writing, the cross trades around 219.00, down 0.25% on the day.

The Pound strengthened across the board on Wednesday following reports that current Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor. Mahmood is seen as a more market-friendly choice than the other candidates.

Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East are pushing Oil prices higher again, raising inflation risks and reviving expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE), providing additional support to Sterling.

However, BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said on Thursday that the Iran war shock is less likely to become embedded and lead to “inflationary dynamics that we might need to lean against.” She added that the BoE is "in a good place" to monitor what’s happening.

Even if the BoE holds rates steady, the interest-rate differential with Japan is still wide, posing a persistent headwind for the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Against this backdrop, GBP/JPY retains an upside bias. However, broad-based Yen weakness, with USD/JPY hovering near 40-year highs, keeps traders alert to possible intervention by Japanese authorities.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated on Thursday that authorities are ready to take appropriate action in the currency market at any time if needed. She added that interest and exchange rates are driven by multiple factors but declined to comment on specific currency levels.

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.26%0.03%-0.14%-0.02%-0.01%0.24%EUR-0.06%0.20%-0.02%-0.19%-0.01%-0.06%0.17%GBP-0.26%-0.20%-0.20%-0.38%-0.22%-0.25%-0.00%JPY-0.03%0.02%0.20%-0.19%0.02%-0.05%0.21%CAD0.14%0.19%0.38%0.19%0.20%0.14%0.38%AUD0.02%0.00%0.22%-0.02%-0.20%-0.03%0.19%NZD0.01%0.06%0.25%0.05%-0.14%0.03%0.23%CHF-0.24%-0.17%0.00%-0.21%-0.38%-0.19%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Silver (XAG/USD) falls toward $56.70 at the time of writing on Thursday, down 1.85% on the day. The white metal comes under selling pressure as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran drive energy prices higher, reviving concerns about persistently elevated global inflation.

Higher Oil prices are fueling expectations that inflation could remain above central bank targets for longer. This scenario prompts investors to anticipate tighter monetary conditions for an extended period, an environment that is generally unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Geopolitical concerns intensified after US President Donald Trump threatened to expand attacks on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran refuses to return to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, the suspension of crude loading operations at several Iraqi terminals following a drone-related incident has heightened fears of global Oil supply disruptions, providing additional support to energy prices.

At the same time, recent US inflation data is helping to limit Silver's downside. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June showed a further moderation in price pressures, prompting markets to scale back expectations of additional monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a Fed interest rate hike at the July meeting has fallen to around 10%, down from above 30% a week ago. The decline in hawkish expectations is limiting downside pressure on precious metals, even as energy-driven inflation concerns continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Summary:

The EUR/TRY pair is testing a major 54.00 resistance level, a psychological barrier that previously triggered a significant technical rejection of the euro Persistent double-digit inflation and high energy import costs continue to structurally weaken the Turkish lira against the euro’s ongoing upward momentum Traders are awaiting the July 23 central bank policy meeting, where any unexpected hawkish signals could spark a sharp rally in the lira The euro has regained some ground against the Turkish lira after a period of decline in late June. The pair is currently trading near the 54.00 level, which has previously acted as a resistance point. This technical level raises questions about the potential for further advances and the continuation of the broader upward trend.

Why the Lira Keeps Losing Ground Several factors are contributing to the lira’s continued depreciation. Turkey is experiencing persistent high inflation, with the annual rate at 32.11% in June, a slight decrease from 32.61% in May. This figure remains significantly above the central bank’s medium-term objectives.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has maintained its policy rate at 37% for three consecutive meetings. This pause followed an aggressive easing cycle, which was complicated by rising energy prices due to Middle East conflict, impacting the path to lower inflation.

Turkey relies heavily on imported energy, so when Brent crude oil prices jump, it puts a strain on the country’s trade balance. This forces local businesses to keep selling lira to buy foreign currency to pay for fuel.

Governor Fatih Karahan has clearly stated that the bank needs to see more solid proof of inflation slowing down and better clarity on the geopolitical situation before they start cutting rates again. The next policy meeting is on July 23. Until then, the central bank’s message is basically wait and see.

Can the EUR/TRY Pair Break 54.00? Regarding the potential for the EUR/TRY pair to break above 54.00, the underlying macroeconomic conditions have not substantially changed, suggesting a continued test of recent highs. Analysts describe the lira’s depreciation as a managed, gradual movement rather than a sharp devaluation.

The CBRT has intervened periodically to moderate volatility without reversing the overall trend. This approach typically results in incremental movements toward resistance levels, which is consistent with the pair’s two previous attempts at the 54.00 mark.

For a decisive break, we’d probably need one of a fresh worsening of Turkish inflation expectations, a hawkish surprise from the ECB, or renewed geopolitical escalation pushing energy prices even higher. Without one of those catalysts, the pair might just keep consolidating right below that barrier.

If the EUR/TRY fails to break past this barrier over the next few sessions, a technical double-top pattern could emerge. This would likely trigger quick profit-taking by short-term momentum traders, potentially sending the pair sliding back down to test support at 53.50 and 53.12.

The Euro is also fighting its own battle. Softening economic growth indicators in the Eurozone or a shift by the ECB towards a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle could diminish the euro’s inherent buying support, thereby capping upside potential for the EUR/TRY.

Why is EUR/TRY struggling near 54.00?

This level marked a prior rejection point, and with no fresh catalyst yet, the pair is consolidating there rather than breaking through decisively.

Where does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s primary benchmark one-week repo rate currently sit?

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has held its key one-week repo interest rate at 37%.

Why does a rise in global oil prices structurally weaken the Turkish lira against major foreign currencies?

 Turkey imports nearly all its energy. Therefore, surging oil costs widen its trade deficit by forcing domestic firms to sell lira for foreign currencies.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Thursday as traders look past back-to-back softer-than-expected US inflation reports and remain focused on renewed Middle East tensions, which are fueling concerns that higher energy prices could reignite inflationary pressure.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,028, down 0.80% on the day.

Both the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June came in below market expectations. The softer readings reduced the chances of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike, but Gold struggled to gain traction as traders continued to debate whether the Fed could still tighten policy later this year.

Fed officials continue to stress the need to bring inflation sustainably back to the 2% target while noting that the labor market appears to have stabilized. This suggests that the central bank could raise interest rates later this year if inflation proves more persistent.

Elevated borrowing costs reduce Gold's appeal as investors seek higher returns from interest-bearing assets.

Against this backdrop, Gold retains a downside bias, though it has traded broadly between $4,000 and $4,200 in recent weeks after falling to $3,941 in June, its lowest level since November 2025.

Next on the US economic docket are Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims data, due at 12:30 GMT. Speeches from Fed officials Lorie Logan and Jeffrey Schmid later in the day will also be watched.

On the geopolitical front, the US carried out a fifth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, while Tehran responded by targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

Iran also said it would not allow Washington to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a "red line." Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump was leaning towards expanding military operations.

Technical analysis: Sellers retain control as XAU/USD struggles below $4,200

On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish bias as it remains well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,495 and the 100-day SMA at $4,548.

Price is holding within a downward parallel channel, trading beneath its upper boundary around $4,200, while momentum is mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40 leans slightly bearish, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, yet with declining histogram bars, hinting that any rebound would still face structural headwinds overhead.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around $4,200, where the horizontal cap and the channel’s upper line converge, before the more significant barriers at the 200-day SMA near $4,496 and the 100-day SMA close to $4,548.

On the downside, initial support appears at the $4,000 horizontal level, with a deeper cushion at the channel floor around $3,800.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is down 0.7% to near $4,030 during the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal faces selling pressures as global inflation concerns remain intact amid elevated energy prices in the wake of widening military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran.

During the day, a drone crash into an oil tanker in Iraq's Basra terminal has resulted in the suspension of all crude loading on all Iraqi terminals. This has renewed fears of lower oil supply, a scenario that will keep energy prices elevated.

The scenario of higher energy prices de-anchors global inflation expectations, which prompts fears of tight monetary conditions by central banks. Theoretically, higher interest rate hike expectations bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

The war between the US and Iran could intensify further, as US President Donald Trump has warned of authorizing forces to attack Iranian infrastructure, most probably next week, if the nation doesn’t return to the table for negotiations, according to his comments in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, easing hawkish Fed prospects are likely to limit the downside in the Gold price. Traders have dialed down the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations as US consumer and producer inflation has cooled down in June.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike in the July meeting have eased to 10.2% from 24.6% recorded a week ago.

Gold technical analysis

XAU/USD trades lower at around $4,030, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,113.96.

The downside bias is reinforced by a mid-range Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40, which suggests weak but persistent selling pressure rather than oversold exhaustion.

On the topside, initial resistance is clearly defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,113.96, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure. Looking down, the Gold price could slide towards the October 28 low of $3,886.62 if it falls below the June 30 low of $3,941.76.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

(This story was corrected at 11:15 GMT to say in the fifth paragraph that Traders have dialed down the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations as US consumer and producer inflation has cooled down in June, and not July.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.00 per troy ounce, down 1.34% from the $57.77 it cost on Wednesday.

Silver prices have decreased by 19.82% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 70.78 on Thursday, up from 70.29 on Wednesday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

EURGBP edges higher in early Thursday after hitting 13-month low following 0.8% drop on Wednesday (the biggest daily loss since June 22), when the pound was strongly lifted by signals that new PM Burnham will pick a fiscally conservative finance minister to be in charge of handling fragile public finances.

Oversold daily studies contributed to partial profit-taking after strong fall on Wednesday, with limited upticks seen rather as positioning for fresh push lower, as larger downtrend remains intact.

Technical picture on daily chart remains bearish, though with overstretched momentum studies that open way for some corrective action.

Falling 10DMA (0.8520) should ideally cap and guard upper breakpoints at 0.8550 zone (broken 50% retracement of 0.8222/0.8865 rally / 100WMA), violation of which may sideline larger bears for stronger bounce that would unmask next key barriers at 0.8600/10 zone (200WMA / former range floor and higher base).

Firm break of cracked Fibo support at 0.8467 (61.8% of 0.8222/0.8865) where bears faced strong headwinds on Wednesday / today, would signal continuation of larger downtrend and expose targets at 0.8373 (Fibo 76.4%) and 0.8355 (29 May 2025 low).

Res: 0.8500; 0.8520; 0.8550; 0.8600
Sup: 0.8467; 0.8449; 0.8373; 0.8355

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday uptick on Wednesday and trades around the 0.8060 area during the early European session, just above the weekly low touched the previous day.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers as traders pared their bets for an immediate US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the wake of soft US inflation figures, released this week. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair. However, concerns about energy-driven keep Fed rate hike prospects on the table, which, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, lend some support to the safe-haven buck and should limit the downside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF pair, so far, has managed to hold above a key horizontal resistance breakpoint, now turned support, near the 0.8000 psychological mark, and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This keeps the near-term bias mildly bullish, though mixed momentum indicators warrant some caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 suggests a neutral-to-constructive momentum backdrop rather than overbought conditions.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stays below zero, hinting that upside progress is gradual and vulnerable to pauses despite the pair trading above its main trend gauge. Nevertheless, any subsequent slide is more likely to attract some buyers near the 0.8000 mark, with stronger underlying demand at the 200-day SMA near 0.7919. As long as the USD/CHF pair holds above the latter level, the broader technical structure favors bullish traders.

On the top side, the 0.8100 mark now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which spot prices could climb to mid-0.8100s, or the highest since July 2025, touched on Tuesday. A sustained strength beyond will set the stage for an extension of the recent upward trajectory from 0.7760 or the May swing low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Summary:

USD/SEK remains supported as geopolitical tensions keep demand for the US dollar elevated despite softer US inflation. Sweden's resilient economy and a cautious Riksbank continue to provide medium-term support for the Swedish krona. Traders are watching Fed expectations, oil prices and global risk sentiment for the next move in USD/SEK. The USD/SEK currency pair remains in focus as investors weigh two competing macroeconomic themes: renewed demand for the US dollar as a global safe-haven asset and growing optimism surrounding Sweden’s economic outlook.

While softer US inflation data has eased expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated Treasury yields have continued to support the greenback. At the same time, the Swedish krona has shown resilience after the Riksbank signaled it remains cautious on inflation, limiting expectations for rapid policy easing.

The result is a market where USD/SEK continues to trade within a relatively stable range as investors wait for the next major catalyst.

Safe-Haven Demand Keeps the US Dollar Supported The US dollar has remained resilient even after recent economic data suggested inflationary pressures are gradually easing.

Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for June came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations that inflation is moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Under normal circumstances, weaker inflation would reduce demand for the dollar by lowering expectations for additional interest rate hikes.

However, the latest escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran has shifted investor attention toward safety. Rising geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets, helping the US dollar recover despite improving inflation data. Higher US Treasury yields have also continued attracting global capital into dollar-denominated assets, providing another source of support for the world’s reserve currency.

Sweden’s Economic Fundamentals Continue to Support the Krona While the US dollar has benefited from global uncertainty, the Swedish krona has remained underpinned by relatively solid domestic fundamentals.

The Riksbank recently left interest rates unchanged while warning that inflation risks have not completely disappeared. Policymakers acknowledged that geopolitical developments and higher energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook, reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated.

Sweden’s economy is also expected to recover gradually during 2026 as consumer demand improves and inflation continues to moderate. Several analysts believe the krona remains undervalued relative to its long-term fundamentals, supporting expectations for gradual appreciation once global market volatility begins to ease.

This combination of resilient economic growth and a cautious central bank has helped prevent a sharper decline in the Swedish currency.

Geopolitical Risks Are Becoming a Key Driver for USD/SEK Recent developments in the Middle East have become one of the biggest influences on currency markets.

Renewed military tensions have lifted crude oil prices and increased uncertainty across global financial markets. During periods of heightened geopolitical risk, investors typically move capital toward safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar while reducing exposure to smaller, more risk-sensitive currencies, including the Swedish krona.

Although Sweden is not directly affected by the conflict, changing global risk sentiment continues to influence demand for SEK as investors adjust their exposure to European currencies. As long as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, safe-haven flows could continue supporting the US dollar against the krona.

Federal Reserve and Riksbank Policy Divergence Remains in Focus Interest rate expectations continue to play a central role in the outlook for USD/SEK.

The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious approach, indicating that future policy decisions will depend on incoming inflation and labour market data. While softer inflation has reduced some expectations for additional tightening, policymakers continue to stress that inflation risks have not completely disappeared.

Meanwhile, the Riksbank has adopted a similarly cautious tone. Although Swedish inflation has moderated significantly from previous highs, officials remain reluctant to signal rapid interest rate cuts while geopolitical risks continue to threaten energy prices.

This narrowing policy gap between the two central banks has helped prevent larger swings in USD/SEK despite ongoing volatility across global markets.

What Could Move USD/SEK Next? The next direction for USD/SEK will likely depend on several important developments.

Investors will closely monitor upcoming US economic data, including retail sales and labour market indicators, for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Additional comments from Fed officials could also influence Treasury yields and the broader US dollar.

In Sweden, markets will continue assessing inflation data and any new communication from the Riksbank regarding future monetary policy.

Global developments may ultimately prove just as important. Oil prices, geopolitical headlines from the Middle East, and broader risk sentiment are expected to remain major drivers of demand for both the US dollar and the Swedish krona over the coming weeks.

For now, USD/SEK reflects a balance between continued safe-haven demand for the dollar and improving confidence in Sweden’s medium-term economic outlook, leaving traders focused on which of these forces ultimately gains the upper hand.

Why is USD/SEK rising today?

USD/SEK is finding support as investors move into the US dollar following renewed geopolitical tensions and higher Treasury yields. Safe-haven demand has outweighed the impact of softer US inflation data.

What factors have the biggest impact on USD/SEK?

The most important drivers of USD/SEK include Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, Riksbank monetary policy, US and Swedish inflation data, Treasury yields, geopolitical developments, and overall global market sentiment.

Why is the Swedish krona important for forex traders?

The Swedish krona is considered a cyclical currency that often reflects investor sentiment toward European economic growth. It is also influenced by Riksbank policy, inflation trends, and global risk appetite.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD has surged to a two‑month high, with deeply overbought conditions but scope for further gains. Intraday, upside is seen limited to a test of 1.3560 while holding above 1.3480. On a 1–3 week view, renewed momentum suggests the Pound has resumed its advance, with 1.3590 the level to monitor and strong support at 1.3450.

Overbought Pound still has upside scope"24-HOUR VIEW: We did not expect GBP to surge to a high of 1.3556 yesterday (we had expected range-trading). The sharp rally appears excessive, but with no sign of pause yet, GBP could continue to rise. However, given the deeply overbought conditions, any advance could be limited to a test of 1.3560. The major resistance at 1.3590 is unlikely to come under threat. To sustain the overbought momentum, GBP must not break below 1.3480 (minor support is at 1.3510)."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (13 Jul, spot at 1.3375), when we highlighted that “the GBP advance from late last month has ended.” We also highlighted that “for the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range between 1.3320 and 1.3445.” In a sudden move yesterday, GBP lifted off and broke above 1.3445, surging to a high of 1.3556. The renewed upward momentum suggests that GBP has resumed its advance. That said, short-term conditions are deeply overbought, and the pace of any further advance is likely to be slower. The level to monitor is 1.3590. We will maintain a positive GBP stance as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3450."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

GBP/USD Jumps to Two-Month High on Chancellor Reports and Softer Fed Outlook GBP/USD has climbed to a two-month high above 1.35 as investors continue to scale back Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and welcome reports over the UK's next Chancellor.

Reports that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood will be appointed Chancellor by incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham have helped to reassure the market and ease concerns. The market had been fretting that Burnham could appoint a more fiscally expansionary candidate, such as Ed Miliband. UK government gilt yields are edging lower on the news.

Meanwhile, UK GDP data showed the economy returned to growth in May after contracting in April. GDP rose 0.1% month-on-month, beating expectations for no growth following April's 0.1% decline.

Looking beneath the headline, the services sector, which accounts for around 80% of the UK economy, expanded 0.3%. However, construction output fell 0.8%, while industrial production declined 0.5%, suggesting the recovery remains uneven.

Looking ahead, renewed tensions in the Middle East could cloud the outlook for the economy. Oil prices have risen to a monthly high, weighing on the economic outlook while increasing the risk of higher inflation

Higher oil prices are reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy later this year. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike in November, with another increase expected in March 2027.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has fallen to a monthly low after softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data this week, which followed last week's weaker labour market report. Together, the data have prompted investors to rule out a July rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

Markets now price around a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.

However, downside in the dollar could prove limited. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities could support safe-haven demand for the greenback, while rising oil prices risk reigniting inflation concerns and lifting Treasury yields.

Attention now turns to today's U.S. retail sales report, which is expected to show sales rose 0.2% month-on-month in June after 0.9% growth previously. A stronger-than-expected reading could lend support to the dollar.

GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has recovered from the 1.3200 support zone, breaking above both the 200-day SMA and the multi-month falling trendline to reach a high of 1.3550.

The breakout, together with the RSI holding above 50, keeps the near-term technical outlook constructive.

Buyers will look to extend gains towards 1.3600, followed by 1.3650, the May high. A move above there would bring 1.3800 into focus.

Initial support is seen around 1.3500, where the former trendline resistance has become support. A break below this level would expose the 200-day SMA near 1.3400, followed by horizontal support at 1.3340. Below there, sellers could target the 1.3200 support zone.

Oil Steadies Near $80 as U.S.-Iran Hostilities Remain in Focus Oil prices are holding near a monthly high, with WTI trading around $80 per barrel, as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to underpin the market.

The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports earlier this week, while Tehran has threatened to disrupt more regional energy exports as tensions between the two sides continue to escalate.

Although geopolitical risks remain supportive of crude prices, the market has paused after the sharp rally earlier this week.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels, with just seven vessels transiting the waterway on Wednesday, down from 13 a day earlier.

At the same time, mediation efforts by neighbouring countries continue. The fact that oil prices have stabilised around current levels suggests investors are not yet pricing in a full-scale regional conflict.

However, a geopolitical risk premium remains firmly embedded in the market. Any signs that Iran could use its Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would likely add further upward pressure to oil prices.

Looking further ahead, oil prices could remain elevated into the fourth quarter if export flows continue to recover only slowly, particularly with global inventories already depleted following substantial drawdowns during the second quarter.

Conversely, a sustained easing in tensions alongside a faster recovery in production could see crude prices move back towards the $60 area by year-end.

Oil Forecast – Technical Analysis

After breaking below its symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-day SMA, oil found support around $67 before staging a strong recovery.

The price has now reclaimed the 200-day SMA and is testing key resistance around $80, where the psychological level coincides with the April low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $55 to $120.

With the RSI above 50, buyers will look for a break above $80, which would expose $88, where the 50-day SMA, the falling trendline resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement converge. Above there, $95 comes into focus.

Failure to overcome the 50-day SMA could see support tested around the 200-day SMA at $74.40. A break below there would shift attention back towards the $67-$70 support zone.

The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate strengthened on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada maintained interest rates and struck a cautious tone on the outlook for monetary policy.

At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8903, up around 0.4% on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.89695 (+0.77%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.606759 (+0.09%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.40514 (-0.01%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) retreated on Wednesday as markets digested the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision.

As was widely expected, the BoC opted to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% following its July policy meeting.

The bank’s accompanying statement also appeared to signal that policymakers are in no rush to follow some of their peers in tightening monetary policy, as they expect inflation to ease through the second half of 2026 and return to the 2% target in early 2027.

The cautious messaging from the Bank, coupled with a pullback in oil prices from Wednesday’s earlier highs, led investors to largely shun the ‘Loonie’.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) spent Wednesday trading sideways against most of its major peers.

With no major domestic economic releases to provide direction, investors instead focused on developments in the UK bond market.

A steady rise in gilt yields pushed the benchmark 10-year yield close to its highest level in two months, tempering sentiment towards Sterling.

Higher borrowing costs continue to raise concerns that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham could face a more challenging fiscal backdrop as elevated financing costs weigh on the UK's economic outlook.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Positive UK GDP Print to Strengthen Sterling? Looking ahead, the UK’s latest GDP figures are likely to provide the next major catalyst for the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate.

Economists expect monthly growth to return to positive territory in May, with output forecast to rise by 0.1% after April’s 0.1% contraction.

While a return to growth could support Sterling, any gains may prove limited if the underlying data still points to an uneven economic recovery.

Meanwhile, as the impact of the Bank of Canada’s policy decision fades, attention is likely to return to oil price movements.

Any renewed strength in crude prices could provide support for the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar through the remainder of the week.

Key Points:U.S. retail sales and jobless claims could significantly influence Fed rate expectations and the dollar's next move.Stronger economic data would reinforce the higher-for-longer interest rate outlook, supporting the U.S. dollar.DXY remains under pressure below key moving averages as traders watch whether support at 100.35 can hold.EUR/USD confirmed a bullish triangle breakout, putting the focus on resistance near the 1.1493 level.GBP/USD remains in a strong uptrend above key moving averages, with buyers targeting the 1.3560 resistance.

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US Dollar News: Retail Sales Test Fed Rate Outlook US dollar is driven today by June retail sales release as well as latest weekly jobless claims. These data releases provide the key drivers as to where we see the Fed heading next. Market participants expect retail sales to report a 0.3% monthly gain after May’s 0.9% decline, while weekly initial jobless claims are also expected to rise modestly to 217,500 from 215,000 last week. If the US sees stronger than expected readings in today’s retail sales releases, together with jobless claims continuing at the lowest levels in history, this will reinforce the notion of continued economic strength in the US economy, leading to higher US rates for longer.

The euro is back in focus as the market thinks that the ECB will keep deposit rate at 2.25% and also its stance is that of data dependent to deal with the inflationary risk. Sterling now seems to be pricing in the Bank of England keeping rates steady with Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% after a 7 to 2 vote to keep rates steady in June while looking at inflation which stood at 2.8%, labor market conditions softening, and geopolitics being another headwind.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Will DXY Recover From $100.35 or Extend Its Decline?

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around 100.48 as it has fallen below both the 50-EMA (at 100.90) and 100-EMA (at 100.86), giving short-term sellers the upper hand. A few sharp red candlesticks sent the index below the descending trendline and the Fibonacci support levels, and it is currently hovering above the 0 level at 100.35. Resistance is at 100.61, then 100.77 and 100.89.

RSI at 38 reflects weakening momentum, which means the pair is in oversold territory, indicating that downside pressures are strong although short-term consolidation could take place. With this in mind, I would avoid any trades until an apparent recovery to the upside of 100.61 is seen, where I would anticipate a trade around 100.89, although the downside of 100.35 remains a threat.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Can Bulls Extend the Breakout Toward $1.3560? GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3537, holding above the rising trendline after surpassing the previous swing high. The pair trades higher than the 50-EMA (at 1.3401) and 100-EMA (at 1.3368) as it is clear that buyers still are in a leading position. The recent green candlesticks pushed the pair higher to an intraday high of 1.3559 after minor consolidation, which I would consider as profit-taking rather than a signal of any major trend change.

The 0.236 Fibonacci level at 1.3507 represents support now, with the next level at 1.3475. Resistance levels are at 1.3560 and then 1.3638. RSI at 61 shows the pair remains comfortably bullish and far away from overbought, indicating the room for further bullish momentum remains intact. With this in mind, I would buy when price trades above 1.3507 and target profit at 1.3560, however, if the pair falls below 1.3475, then the pair may retest the support of 1.3449.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Is the Break Above Triangle Resistance Opening the Door to $1.1493? EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is trading near 1.1468 after breaking out of the trendline to the upside of a descending pattern that has formed a triangle shape and regained the 50-EMA (at 1.1428) and the 100-EMA (at 1.1437). The recent candlesticks have closed higher than the earlier resistance zone near 1.1461, indicating that buyers have stepped in after a period of sideways consolidation.

Resistance at 1.1493 is now in place, with 1.1461 as support initially and then 1.1412 after that. RSI at 61 shows the bullish bias is building strength, however, is not yet considered overbought. With this in mind, I would buy when price trades above 1.1461, aiming at taking profit around 1.1493. But if the pair drops below 1.1412, the pair will become less attractive as a buy.

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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Gold – Chart Gold price is trading just under $4,029 on the 4-hour chart, after falling further down below the 50 EMA at $4,070 and staying well below the 100 EMA at $4,103 in the near-term. Recent candlesticks have been printing lower highs and lower lows below the descending trendline, and gold has continued to get rejected by $4,090 again and again, suggesting that sellers are very much in control of the market.

Now, gold price is currently near the $4,020 support area and could fall further down if it falls below this zone towards $3,962. Also, gold’s RSI on the 4-hour chart is hovering near 44, which is still far above the oversold zone, which means that there’s still potential downside for gold price.

However, it should remain stable above the key level for a price recovery back above $4,090 and towards $4,140. Given my analysis, I think that it should trade above $4,090 to target a price at $4,140. However, gold price could break down and trade to a level of $3,962 if it falls below $4,020.

Silver Technical Analysis: Can the Long-Term Demand Zone Stop Another Wave of Selling?