GBPUSD managed to pass above resistance 1.3430 while managed to meet target 1.3510 and above
As we see over the chart, a chance for trading zone between support 1.3320-50 and resistance 1.3555 may hold the market
Above 1.3555 more advance will be expected with resistance at 1.3655
Below 1.3320 more drop will be expected with support at 1.3160
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 1.3320-50 1.3555 LEVEL2 1.3160 1.3655 LEVEL3 1.3010 1.3850 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Death Cross Confirmed as Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Bullion The US dollar could be a bit of a problem here as well; the US dollar strengthening a lot of times will work against gold. But from the structural standpoint, we are still in consolidation. The $3,900 level below is an area that had been supported as well, so it’s possible there is support between $4,000 and $3,900.
Breaking below there, then the historical support can be found at $3,500. Short-term rallies are most certainly possible, but at this point in time, the market looks like it probably needs to convince a lot of traders; it needs to prove itself, and caution will more likely be a route that a lot of traders take as we head into a weekend that almost certainly will feature Middle East headlines again.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Friday but lacks bullish momentum as rising Oil prices revive inflation concerns and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $3,992 after falling to $3,969 on Thursday, its lowest level since July 1.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) stages a comeback after falling earlier this week following softer-than-expected US inflation data. The recovery in the Greenback limits Gold’s upside and keeps the precious metal on track for a second consecutive weekly loss.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.86 after hitting a more than three-week low of 100.35 on Wednesday.
The United States (US) carried out strikes against Iran for a sixth consecutive night, while Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks on US military facilities across the Middle East.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said no Oil or gas exports would pass through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US attacks persist, according to the Tasnim news agency.
The longer the disruption to traffic through the Strait lasts, the greater the upside risks to energy prices and inflation, factors that tend to weigh on Gold.
This keeps the hawkish Fed narrative alive, even as softer US inflation data released this week prompted traders to scale back bets on a near-term interest rate hike.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in around a 73% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by December.
Recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials have also kept the possibility of tighter monetary policy on the table. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Thursday that “modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks,” adding that inflation does not appear to be heading sustainably back to the 2% target on its own.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said the recent inflation data was encouraging but added: “Inflation is too hot and above target for too long.”
Technical analysis: XAU/USD bears retain control below Bollinger mid-band
In the daily chart, XAU/USD remains under pressure, trading below the Bollinger Bands 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,072. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.12 is still below the 50 line, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 39.77 suggests the prevailing downtrend retains notable strength.
On the upside, initial resistance sits at the Bollinger middle band at $4,072, followed by the confluence of the upper band at $4,199 and the horizontal barrier at $4,200. Beyond that, the next major hurdle emerges at $4,400.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger band near $3,945, before the more pronounced horizontal floor at $3,800, where sellers could look to extend the current bearish phase if the latter gives way.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
The Euro (EUR) records mild losses against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Friday. The EUR/USD pair trades at 1,1430 after being capped at 1.1480 earlier this week, extending the sideways trend, as geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices keep Euro rallies subdued.
Hostilities in Iran escalated this week, with the US military killing eight people after attacking civilian targets in Bandar Abbas on Friday, while Tehran threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another key corridor for gas and oil traffic.
The deteriorating situation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher this week. The barrel of Brent Crude is set to close the week near $85.00, about 18% above early June lows. This has offset the positive impact on the Euro of the soft US inflation data and lowered hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening.
Technical Analysis: The pair keeps looking for direction around 1.1400
The technical picture is little changed this week. EUR/USD keeps trading within a roughly 100-pip range, with momentum indicators on intraday charts showing a lack of clear bias. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is wavering near the 50 midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips fractionally negative, together hinting at subdued momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges in the area between the mentioned range top, near 1.1480, and a previous support at the 1.1500 area (June 8 and 11 lows). A break above these levels would encourage bulls to target the June 16 and 17 highs, near 1.1620.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the July range floor, between 1.1360 and 1.1380, which, so far, is closing the path towards the year-to-date low, at 1.1324. Further down, bears might be attracted by the late-May 2025 low, at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.26%-0.39%0.34%-0.95%-0.44%-1.24%-0.10%EUR0.26%-0.13%0.63%-0.70%-0.23%-0.98%0.17%GBP0.39%0.13%0.72%-0.56%-0.09%-0.85%0.35%JPY-0.34%-0.63%-0.72%-1.37%-0.79%-1.62%-0.49%CAD0.95%0.70%0.56%1.37%0.59%-0.25%0.92%AUD0.44%0.23%0.09%0.79%-0.59%-0.75%0.31%NZD1.24%0.98%0.85%1.62%0.25%0.75%1.21%CHF0.10%-0.17%-0.35%0.49%-0.92%-0.31%-1.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The EUR/USD forecast remains biased to the downside as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin demand for both crude oil and the US dollar. Although this week’s softer US inflation readings briefly encouraged hopes that the Fed may not have to tightening after all, the renewed rise in oil prices has complicated that narrative and prompted investors to reassess the outlook. As such, they have found it difficult to justify shorting higher-yielding currencies or buying low or zero yielding assets. This narrative is unlikely to change much until there is genuine breakthrough in the tension between the US and Iran.
Dollar remains on front-foot as oil risk clouds inflation outlook This week we had some weak inflation numbers from the US, and that caused only temporary weakness in US dollar. Both consumer and producer inflation surprised on the downside, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures are gradually easing. Under normal circumstances, that would have weighed on the greenback more meaningfully. Instead, markets have been reluctant to fully embrace that view as crude oil prices continue to climb amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
Higher energy prices raise the risk that inflation proves more persistent later in the year, potentially delaying any shift towards easier monetary policy. While investors still expect inflation to moderate over the medium term, the near-term backdrop has become considerably less favourable for dollar bears. I continue to believe that a stronger dollar is the more likely outcome in so far as the near-term is concerned, assuming geopolitical risks do not fade abruptly, and energy prices retreat. That makes the near-term EUR/USD forecast slightly bearish.
Fed policymakers remain reluctant to soften their stance Despite encouraging inflation data, Federal Reserve officials have made little effort to signal an imminent policy pivot. Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Chris Waller both reiterated that one or two favourable inflation reports are insufficient evidence that price stability has been restored. With crude oil prices moving sharply higher, policymakers will be wary of declaring victory too early. Energy costs rising means the Fed is unlikely to abandon its cautious approach until it sees sustained evidence that inflation is returning towards target. Markets continue to price in one rate increase before year-end. Should expectations shift towards a more aggressive policy path, the dollar could extend its recent gains while risk assets may struggle to maintain their resilience.
ECB meeting could provide the next catalyst For the euro, attention now turns to next week’s European Central Bank meeting. Although policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, rising energy prices have injected a degree of uncertainty into the outlook. The ECB faces an uncomfortable balancing act. On one hand, inflation has continued to moderate across much of the eurozone. On the other, higher oil prices threaten to revive inflationary pressures while simultaneously weighing on economic growth, raising the spectre of stagflation.
Some policymakers may therefore argue for maintaining a hawkish bias to preserve the ECB’s inflation-fighting credibility. Investors will be paying close attention to President Lagarde’s guidance for clues on whether policymakers are becoming more concerned about renewed energy-driven inflation.
Beyond the ECB, next week’s flash PMI surveys will offer a timely snapshot of business activity across the major economies and could shape expectations for both European growth and the direction of the euro over the coming weeks.
Technical EUR/USD forecast: Key levels to watch The EUR/USD managed to find support from the support trend of its flag pattern near the 1.1380 area earlier this week. That led to a bounce to test resistance and the bearish trend line around 1.1475/80 zone. From there, we have since seen renewed weakness. As a result, the EUR/USD continues to remain inside its bear flag pattern, and below the bearish trend line. While momentum is clearly lacking, the overall technical bias is one that leans slightly on the bearish side of things. The onus is on the bulls to show up and change that trend. Until that happens, the near-term EUR/USD forecast from a technical analysis point of view remains to the downside.
Source: TradingView.com Should the EUR/USD break below the bear flag, then the next target would be the 1.1300 handle. Conversely, a break above the short-term bearish trend could expose the 1.1500 handle for a retest with the next resistance not seen until 1.1575 – 1.1600 area.
Gold (XAU/USD) shows moderate gains on Friday, but remains close to the year-to-date lows, at the $3,940 area, with upside attempts capped below the $4,000 psychological level for now. The precious metal is set for a 3% weekly decline, as the resumed hostilities between the US and Iran and the higher Oil prices have offset the positive impact of lower US Treasury yields.
Bullion tumbled on Thursday as tensions in Iran escalated with US President Donald Trump threatening to target civilian infrastructure, like power plants and bridges. Tehran, in turn, flagged the closure of the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, a move that would strangle Oil supply further and bring the global economy to the brink of recession.
Technical Analysis: The YTD low of $3,941 is coming under pressure
XAU/USD trades remain on a bearish trend from February's highs with no clear sign of a trend shift on the horizon, other than the bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Momentum indicators in the 4-hour remain in bearish territory, with the mentioned RSI below 40 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just below zero, suggesting that rallies will find sellers.
The psychological $4,000 level is holding bulls at the time of writing, closing the path towards the trendline resistance at $4,075 and mid-July highs in the $4,100 area. A clear break of these levels is needed to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus towards July's peak, in the $4,200 area.
On the downside, the year-to-date low, at $3,941, remains at a short distance. Further down, the October 2025 low, at $3,886, emerges as the next target, ahead of the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the late-June downleg, at the $3,830 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The British Pound (GBP) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for the second straight day on Friday, trading 0.4% lower to near 1.3427 during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as the British currency weakens amidst the process of the United Kingdom (UK) leadership change.
Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.12%0.33%-0.03%-0.04%0.40%0.23%-0.13%EUR-0.12%0.21%-0.17%-0.19%0.26%0.11%-0.25%GBP-0.33%-0.21%-0.37%-0.41%0.03%-0.09%-0.47%JPY0.03%0.17%0.37%-0.02%0.44%0.24%-0.10%CAD0.04%0.19%0.41%0.02%0.46%0.29%-0.08%AUD-0.40%-0.26%-0.03%-0.44%-0.46%-0.18%-0.53%NZD-0.23%-0.11%0.09%-0.24%-0.29%0.18%-0.36%CHF0.13%0.25%0.47%0.10%0.08%0.53%0.36% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Andy Burnham becomes Labour leader on Friday, but he will not become Prime Minister (PM) until Monday, as PM Keir Starmer will officially deliver his resignation to King Charles that day,
While the Pound Sterling has been underperforming from Thursday, it is set to end the week on a positive note. The currency performed strongly earlier this week after reports from Financial Times (FT) that incoming PM Burnham will name Shabana Mahmood as Finance Minister (FM), who is considered a fiscal conservative by financial markets.
On the economic data front, investors await the UK employment data for the three months ending May and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released next week.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades marginally higher amid fears of a resurgence in United States (US) inflation amid elevated energy prices on the back of continued aggression in the Middle East.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades sharply lower at around 1.3430. However, the pair maintains a modest bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3380. The pair declines after facing selling pressure near the downward-sloping border of the Descending Triangle formation above 1.3500.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 54.9 sits in neutral-positive territory, hinting that buying pressure is constructive but not yet overextended.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.3380, where a sustained break would undermine the current positive tone and expose a deeper correction towards 1.3300. On the topside, the first key obstacle is the descending resistance trend line near 1.3515; a daily close above this barrier would reinforce the bullish bias and open the door to further gains in the days ahead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
CAD/JPY is on a winning streak despite a notable spike in geopolitical risk following renewed US-Iran hostilities. Why has the yen lost it? The CAD/JPY currency pair has recovered from an 18-week low of 112.96 on July 4th, achieving a four-day winning streak and surpassing 115.70. Typically, global markets see investors move away from cyclical currencies towards safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen during periods of geopolitical tension.
However, the yen is currently weakening while the loonie gains. This analysis explores why the CAD/JPY pair is deviating from traditional safe-haven behavior and what factors might influence its near-term performance.
Can the Yen Challenge the Canadian Dollar? Rising oil prices generally benefit the Canadian dollar, reflecting Canada’s position as a significant energy exporter. Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices higher, providing fundamental support for the Canadian dollar.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen, often considered a safe-haven currency, faces its own challenges. Persistent interest rate differences and the Bank of Japan’s cautious monetary policy limit the yen’s attractiveness compared to currencies like the Canadian dollar, which offer higher yields.
While the yen has weakened against the US dollar, the CAD/JPY pair is benefiting from Canada’s resource-based economy. A continued increase in oil prices could further favor the Canadian dollar, although any easing of geopolitical tensions might reduce this advantage.
The Yen’s Deeper Problem Oil aside, the yen’s been fighting a losing battle for months. The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to its highest level since 1995, yet the currency still slid to its weakest point since 1986 by late June. Tokyo’s Ministry of Finance stepped in with a record ¥11.7 trillion between late April and May, but that effect vanished within six weeks.
Lazard Asset Management points out that the usual explanation, the US-Japan interest rate gap, has actually narrowed recently. That would normally support the yen. Instead, rising inflation expectations and worries about Japan’s ballooning public debt, now close to 240% of GDP, seem to be the main problem, keeping the currency under pressure no matter what.
Beyond the oil slick, the broader trajectory of the CAD/JPY is being shaped by monetary policy differentials. On July 15, 2026, the Bank of Canada decided to keep its main interest rate at 2.25%. This makes sense because Canada’s economy grew by 2.5% in the second quarter, and the job market is getting tighter. So, the Bank of Canada doesn’t feel any pressure to lower interest rates right now.
Positioning Strategies for Investors Considering the Japanese yen is generally weak and oil prices are helping the Canadian dollar in the short term, the overall trend suggests that CAD/JPY could go up. Predictions show it might climb a bit more in the near future, although some models suggest it might eventually settle back down.
However, just betting on this upward trend has a risk of intervention. Japanese officials have shown they’re ready to step in to influence the market, even if their actions haven’t always had a lasting effect.
Instead of treating this as a sure thing, it seems smarter to be cautious with how much you invest, take smaller positions, and keep an eye out for any signs that the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance might step in.
Why has CAD/JPY shown recent strength?
Gains in oil prices from US-Iran tensions have supported the commodity-linked Canadian dollar against the yen.
Has Bank of Japan intervention helped the yen?
Bank of Japan intervention provided only temporary support for the yen. Record intervention in April-May 2026 briefly boosted the yen, but its weakness soon resumed.
How should investors approach CAD/JPY currently?
They should favor the broader uptrend but size positions cautiously. It is advisable to monitor intervention risks and developments in the Middle East rather than assuming continued, unchecked momentum.
Gold trades below $4000 level on Friday following Thursday’s break and daily close below this level (the first close well below the mark since 6 November 2025), after the price moved around 4K for almost one month, but all attacks failed to register a clear break lower.
Fresh violation of very significant 4K support may signal an end of extended directionless phase and continuation of larger downtrend from new record high, if break is sustained.
The metal came under fresh pressure as the latest escalation in the Middle East fuels inflationary risk (also partially offsets optimism from better than expected US June inflation numbers) that underpins the US dollar.
Loss of $4K support zone (including recent spike low at $3942) would expose immediate support at $3886 (28 Oct 2025), followed by $3666 (weekly Ichimoku cloud base) and $3606 (50% retracement of $1613/$5598 uptrend).
Gold is on track for the second consecutive weekly loss, with bearish daily studies contributing to negative scenario.
Conversely, failure to hold gains below $4000 would weaken developing bearish signal and keep the price in prolonged directionless mode, but biased lower as long as recent range top ($4203) stays intact.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The Australian dollar has clawed back most of its end-of-June losses, when it touched three-month lows against the greenback amid escalating Middle East tensions. Since then, sentiment has improved: the RBA’s Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter signalled the board stands ready to tighten further if the recent oil shock feeds into inflation expectations. Still, resilient business surveys and a modest improvement in consumer confidence point to an economy holding up better than feared.
The Bank of Canada told a similarly nuanced story this week. Policymakers held the overnight rate steady at 2.25% and struck a cautiously optimistic tone on the domestic economy, upgrading medium-term growth expectations. At the same time, officials were careful to flag that instability in the Middle East continues to weigh heavily on the broader outlook, keeping the door open to both risks and opportunities depending on how the conflict evolves.
The result: two central banks watching the same geopolitical flashpoint, each balancing early signs of domestic resilience against a risk backdrop neither can fully control.
AUD/CAD Technical Analysis
As the 4-hour chart shows, AUD/CAD has been trading within a broader range between the 0.9750 support and 0.9950 resistance since April, with price action compressing into a tighter symmetrical triangle since June. This narrowing structure suggests a breakout could soon define the pair’s direction over the medium term.
Bullish Scenario Price continues finding support along the ascending trendline, having bounced off it multiple times and testing it once again. A renewed sign of strength here—breaking both the 200-period EMA and the descending trendline—would open the path back towards the 0.9950 resistance, the acid test for whether this level finally gives way or rejects price once more.
Bearish Scenario Should the ascending trendline finally break, price would quickly face the critical 0.9750 support, a level traders have been watching closely for months. A bounce here keeps the pair locked within its consolidation range, but a decisive break after so many failed attempts would likely signal a medium-term trend shift, opening the door toward the next area of interest between 0.9500 and 0.9550.
Will AUD/CAD finally commit to a direction after months of indecision?
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Weaker-than-expected US inflation data led markets to scale back expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. At the same time, escalating US-Iran tensions continue to sustain inflationary concerns.
The United States has launched several strikes against Iran this week, while Tehran has responded with attacks on US bases in neighbouring countries.
US consumer inflation came in softer than forecast in June, while producer prices unexpectedly fell. Retail sales increased in line with expectations: lower petrol prices reduced gas station revenues, while spending from car dealers and online retailers remained stable.
The number of initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 208,000. Markets have now all but ruled out a Fed rate hike in July, though views remain mixed on the possibility of a move in September.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1458 level, currently extending down to 1.1430 and up to 1.1455. A consolidation range around this level is practically complete. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective wave developing to 1.1465, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open potential for a downward wave to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is above zero but pointing strictly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the trend to continue lower.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed the next downward wave to the 1.1430 level. A consolidation range is currently forming above this level. Today, a range expansion up to 1.1455 and down to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above the 20 level and pointing strictly upwards to 80.
Conclusion EUR/USD is drifting lower on Friday as markets digest a mixed bag of US data. Softer-than-expected inflation figures-with consumer prices easing and producer prices unexpectedly falling-have reduced the likelihood of an imminent Fed rate hike. However, escalating US-Iran tensions continue to underpin inflationary fears, adding a layer of complexity to the policy outlook. Retail sales met expectations, with lower petrol prices offset by stable spending elsewhere, while jobless claims fell to a two-month low. Markets have priced out a July hike but remain divided on September. Technically, the bearish outlook for EUR/USD remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term, though near-term consolidation around current levels is possible.
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Gold slips even as U.S. inflation data cools, with oil prices climbing on renewed Iran tensions and the dollar regaining strength. FOREX.com Market Analyst Fawad Razaqzada breaks down why the Fed needs more than one soft inflation print, plus the key gold technical levels to watch next.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $55.44 per troy ounce, down 0.17% from the $55.53 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 22.01% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 72.08 on Friday, up from 71.60 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $55.50 at the time of writing on Friday, virtually unchanged on the day, but remains on track to post a weekly loss of nearly 7%. Despite an increasingly tense geopolitical backdrop, the white metal remains under pressure as rising interest rate expectations offset demand for safe-haven assets, with investors concerned that higher energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures.
Middle East tensions continue to support Oil prices. Reuters reported that Iran has instructed Yemen's Houthis to stand ready to close the strategic Red Sea Oil shipping route if the United States (US) strikes Iranian energy infrastructure. At the same time, several explosions have been reported across multiple Iranian cities as the confrontation between Washington and Tehran continues to escalate.
These risks to global energy supplies are fueling concerns over another wave of inflation. Against this backdrop, investors believe major central banks could be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer, a scenario that weighs on non-yielding precious metals such as Silver.
In the United States, the latest economic data has reinforced this view. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 208K, below expectations, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Fed) Manufacturing Index rose to its highest level since November 2021, highlighting the resilience of the US economy.
Several Fed officials have also maintained a cautious stance. Fed of Dallas President Lorie Logan said progress on inflation remains insufficient and that monetary tightening could still be necessary. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he would be open to raising interest rates if inflation fails to continue slowing down.
This combination of geopolitical tensions, rising Oil prices and expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy continues to limit Silver's appeal, even as safe-haven demand remains supported.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Swiss Franc surged over 0.20% in early trading, pulling the EUR/CHF pair toward 0.9230 and stalling its month-long uptrend The Franc's resurgence is driven by safe-haven demand amid rising Middle East geopolitical tensions and cooling Eurozone growth optimism The Swiss National Bank is ready to actively intervene in the currency markets to prevent the Franc from strengthening too aggressively and hurting exports The EUR/CHF exchange rate has shown resilience over the past month, with the pair advancing approximately 0.25% overall. However, the Swiss franc has recently strengthened. In two of the last three trading days, the franc has gained value.
This recovery accelerated on Friday, with the franc appreciating by over 0.20% in early European trading. This move pushed the EUR/CHF pair back towards the 0.9230 level. So, what is driving this sudden reversal of fortune, and what does it tell us about the broader market sentiment?
What is Boosting the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc’s recent rise is due to escalating global risks and changing monetary policy expectations. Investors are again seeking safe havens. Risk-on sentiment had briefly pushed up the Euro earlier this month, but the sudden collapse of the US-Iran deal and renewed military action in the Middle East have brought renewed geopolitical anxiety to markets. This tension has also driven crude oil prices higher, exposing energy-reliant European economies and making Switzerland’s resilience stand out.
There’s also a policy angle. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has held its policy rate at zero and, as Trading Economics notes, has repeatedly said it’s ready to intervene if the franc strengthens too much. Yet, it hasn’t acted. This restraint, somewhat counterintuitively, has actually given traders more confidence to hold franc positions. The immediate threat of aggressive SNB pushback now appears lower than markets had anticipated.
Underpinning these factors is Switzerland’s economic structure. Its disinflationary environment and comparatively stable economy contrast with the Eurozone’s ongoing challenges with slow industrial growth, particularly in Germany.
The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet on July 23, 2026. While the market anticipates no change to the key deposit rate, which stands at 2.25%, policymakers are signaling a data-dependent approach without committing to a specific future rate path.
What Does This Say About Risk Sentiment? Franc strength is usually shorthand for caution. When investors put their money into Switzerland’s currency instead of looking for higher returns elsewhere, it usually means they’re not feeling very confident about taking risks, at least for a while.
This happens even when things seem a bit better, like when talks between the US and Iran gave some temporary breathing room. However, underlying geopolitical tensions maintain demand for safe-haven currencies.
In essence, this situation reflects a market balancing the potential for economic recovery against ongoing uncertainties, including energy prices and differing monetary policies among major central banks. The performance of the franc serves as an indicator of these market forces. Until geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside, the franc’s tendency to attract capital is likely to continue exerting downward pressure on the EUR/CHF pair.
What is the current benchmark policy interest rate maintained by the Swiss National Bank to support its domestic economic stability?
The Swiss National Bank has maintained its benchmark expansionary policy interest rate at exactly 0% throughout 2026.
Why has safe-haven demand returned to boost the Swiss Franc against the Euro during mid-July trading sessions?
Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the collapse of the U.S.–Iran deal have pushed investors toward defensive safe havens.
How does the franc’s performance reflect broader market sentiment?
It indicates cautious risk appetite, with investors seeking stability during geopolitical uncertainty while monitoring recovery signals.
The US Dollar (USD) has turned lower against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday’s European trading session, after failing to find acceptance above the 0.8100 level, which keeps the immediate bearish structure in place. The Dollar remains weighed by the soft US inflation figures released earlier this week, which have cooled hopes of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures confirmed that inflationary pressures moderated in June, favoured by a sharp pullback in Oil prices. These numbers provide the Fed further leeway to assess the economic impact of the volatile energy prices, which practically discards a rate hike in July and cools hopes of one in September.
Geopolitical tensions, on the other hand, remain high, as the US and Iran escalated their reciprocal attacks this week, and Iran threatened to close other energy routes, which might bring the global economy to the edge. This is likely to keep appetite for risk subdued and cushion the US Dollar’s downside attempts.
Technical Analysis: Trading lower within a horizontal channel
USD/CHF trades at 0.8073, with recent price action showing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, yet within a roughly 120-pip range and with momentum indicators at neutral-to-bearish levels. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering just below the 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits marginally below zero, both hinting at subdued bullish conviction.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the July 10 and 15 lows near 0.8030, with key support in the area between early July lows, at 0.8010, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June's rally, at 0.8007. On the topside, bulls would need to confirm above session highs at 0.8100 to aim for the top of the channel at the area between 0.8135 and 0.8150, which capped rallies in late June and mid-July.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%0.22%0.00%-0.07%0.29%0.17%-0.19%EUR-0.01%0.22%-0.04%-0.11%0.30%0.16%-0.22%GBP-0.22%-0.22%-0.24%-0.32%0.07%-0.03%-0.44%JPY0.00%0.04%0.24%-0.07%0.30%0.17%-0.20%CAD0.07%0.11%0.32%0.07%0.38%0.26%-0.13%AUD-0.29%-0.30%-0.07%-0.30%-0.38%-0.13%-0.51%NZD-0.17%-0.16%0.03%-0.17%-0.26%0.13%-0.38%CHF0.19%0.22%0.44%0.20%0.13%0.51%0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
The USD/CAD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.4033 during the European trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair edges down as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms its major currency peers amid fears that oil prices could accelerate further.
Currencies from economies, such as Canada, that are net energy exporters tend to outperform in a high-oil-price environment.
The oil price outlook has improved amid threats from Iran that it will close the Red Sea if the United States (US) strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
On the monetary policy front, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said in the press conference, after leaving interest rates unchanged at 2.25%, that the central bank might need to raise interest rates if oil prices remain higher.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar holds Thursday’s recovery move amid fears of a resurgence in US inflation due to rising energy prices.
USD/CAD technical analysis
USD/CAD trades slightly lower at around 1.4033, extending a corrective tone after pulling back from recent highs. The pair now sits beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4107, suggesting a near-term bearish bias as price loses traction relative to the short-term trend benchmark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.6 has retreated from overbought territory and now leans toward the lower half of its range, suggesting that downside momentum is still in play but not yet oversold.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.4107, and a sustained recovery above this barrier would be needed to ease the current pressure. On the downside, the pair is expected to extend its decline towards the March 31 high at 1.3967.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.
Cable struggles as the pair met firm resistance after pushing over 100 pips in the past session.
• Not even a lift in GDP data could prevent the pound from slipping away from the 1.3500 level.
• With the RSI majorly overbought, a brief bounce to the downside could ensue.
• 1.3400 is the first hurdle to break before price action takes the pair back to the recent swing low at 1.3340.
• A move back past 1.3500 sees 1.3550 being the top to break.
USDCAD breaks lower
The Canadian dollar continues its advance as prices move away from the 1.4100 area.
• The pair remains under some pressure as its recent descent might lead to a reversal.
• A bullish divergence on the RSI is likely to attract buying interest in the near term as previous sellers look to switch sides.
• 1.4060 is the first target to expect sellers to close positions.
• A fall below 1.4000 would extend the sell-off towards 1.3960.
USOIL consolidating
WTI hits another fresh high as economists expect a test at the $82 level by the end of this week.
• As a show of resilience, the price has managed to hover around the psychological area of 80.00.
• Bulls will need to lift the 82.00 level before they can end the lengthy consolidation and push for a broader recovery.
• On the downside, 78.00 is the first support to keep the current momentum intact, with 75.50 a firm backup.
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On 3 July, Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, stated that the Ministry of Finance remains in close contact with US authorities regarding developments in USD/JPY as the yen traded near its weakest level in almost 40 years. Similar verbal warnings have become increasingly common whenever the pair approaches the 162.00 area, although no direct intervention has been announced so far.
At the same time, weaker-than-expected US inflation data added pressure to the dollar. On 14 July, June’s Consumer Price Index came in below forecasts, significantly reducing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting and pushing US Treasury yields lower. The combination of increasingly cautious rhetoric from Japanese officials and softer US inflation expectations may keep USD/JPY range-bound, preventing buyers from establishing a sustained break above its multi-decade highs.
Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, USD/JPY advanced steadily throughout June, reaching a peak near 162.80 on 1 July. A sharp reversal followed, with the pair dropping rapidly to the 160.50 area, where the green support zone is currently located. The decline coincided with market speculation about a possible currency intervention by the Japanese authorities.
After rebounding from the 3 July low, the pair began forming a triangle pattern. Price is now testing the upper boundary of the formation, although the attempted upside breakout is currently being capped by the upper edge of the current volume profile at 162.45. Just above this level lies the red resistance zone at 162.70.
The Point of Control (POC) is located around 162.08 and could become a key magnet if the pair moves back towards the lower part of the range, where two additional important technical levels are visible: the lower boundary of the volume profile at 161.45 and the green support zone at 160.50.
Volume behaviour also deserves attention. The break above the triangle’s upper boundary was not supported by strong bullish volume, indicating limited buying conviction and increasing the risk that the breakout could soon reverse. Meanwhile, the RSI + MAs oscillator stands at 54, 52 and 52 respectively, with all three readings remaining firmly in neutral territory, reinforcing the current lack of directional conviction.
Key Takeaways USD/JPY is testing the upper boundary of its current market structure while momentum indicators remain neutral. The lack of bullish volume at the breakout adds uncertainty, while the Point of Control around 162.08 could be the key reference level if price begins to move lower.
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The Euro (EUR) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.1445 during the European trading session on Friday. The EUR/USD pair is expected to trade with caution amid continued military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 101.70.
Earlier in the day, Iran asked Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure, Reuters reports.
The threat from Iran is a response to remarks from US President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News, in which he said that military forces would be authorized to attack Iranian bridges and power plants if the nation doesn’t come to the table for negotiations.
A further disruption in the global energy supply would squeeze the already-low global oil supply, which could further accelerate fears of high inflation globally.
On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank is expected to deliver more interest rate hikes amid fears of second-round inflation effects in the Eurozone.
ECB Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said earlier this week that the central bank remains vigilant to Middle East developments, while warning that policymakers will act decisively if necessary.
Nagel keeps ECB vigilant but tempers hawkish edge for the EuroECB's Nagel scores 6.4/10 on FXS Speechtracker, below the historic 7.2/10 baseline, signaling a slightly softer tone versus past communications. The emphasis on reacting "with caution" but "decisively if necessary" points to a moderately hawkish stance, yet less forceful than usual, suggesting the Euro may see limited upside unless data re-energizes policy conviction.
The pledge that monetary policy will "maintain its vigilant stance" reinforces a readiness to tighten or resist premature easing, supporting the Euro against more dovish expectations. However, the reference to recent geopolitical "hopes and disappointments" introduces uncertainty, implying that while vigilance remains, conviction is constrained, which caps the hawkish impact reflected in the lower FXS Speechtracker score.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Christopher Wong report EUR/USD has eased after Wednesday’s surge, with current price action seen as consolidation between 1.1420 and 1.1465. On a 1–3 week view, the Euro retains an upside bias, though momentum toward the 1.1520 resistance is still uncertain, and a break below 1.1405 would signal a return to broader range trading.
Euro consolidates after recent rally"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR surged to a high of 1.1482 on Wednesday, we highlighted yesterday that “while the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for EUR to test 1.1490.” We also highlighted that “we do not expect the significant resistance at 1.1520 to come into view.” However, instead of testing 1.1490, EUR pulled back from 1.1476 to 1.1430 before closing at 1.1441 (-0.19%). The immediate upward pressure has eased, and the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase, which is expected to be between 1.1420 and 1.1465."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 1.1470) remains valid. As highlighted, while EUR “is likely to trade with an upside bias, it is too early to determine whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to reach the significant resistance level at 1.1520.” On the downside, a breach of 1.1405 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR has reverted to a range-trading phase."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate weakened on Thursday as escalating conflict in the Middle East drove investors towards the safe-haven US Dollar despite another positive UK political development.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3499, down around 0.3% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.347769 (-0.46%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.14428 (-0.23%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.36824 (+0.19%)
DAILY RECAP:
The safe-haven US Dollar (USD) found some support on Thursday, as escalating tensions in the Middle East soured the market mood.
Sentiment had been relatively resilient since the US and Iran renewed hostilities, but with the fighting intensifying, risk appetite began to fade.
The US expanded its attacks into northern Iran, with strikes also hitting around the Iranian capital of Tehran.
US President Donald Trump also threatened to target Iranian infrastructure, such as bridges, with Tehran vowing to retaliate by targeting infrastructure in US-allied Gulf states.
With the conflict escalating, the US Dollar firmed amid renewed safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) edged lower as Sterling gave back part of the strong gains it posted in the previous session.
The UK currency had surged on Wednesday after reports suggested Shabana Mahmood had overtaken Ed Miliband as the leading contender to become Chancellor under incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
Markets had been uneasy about the prospect of Miliband taking the role, amid expectations he could favour looser fiscal policy. By contrast, Mahmood is viewed as a more fiscally orthodox choice, with reports of her likely appointment proving reassuring for investors.
Even so, Sterling was unable to extend its advance on Thursday, despite UK GDP data matching expectations with a modest 0.1% expansion in May.
Instead, traders appeared to lock in profits after the previous day's rally, leaving the Pound on the back foot.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Consumer Confidence to Support the US Dollar? Looking ahead, the key data release on Friday will be the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index in the US.
Markets expect American household morale to have improved in July, with the index set to rise from 49.5 to 51. This could underpin the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, market risk appetite may also influence the safe-haven ‘Greenback’. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, an anxious mood may support USD.
As for the Pound, a lack of UK data could limit Sterling. That said, political optimism may continue to provide some support for GBP.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate briefly climbed to a one-week high on Thursday before easing back as investors locked in profits following Sterling's recent rally.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.9294, having retreated from an earlier high of AU$1.9353.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.926352 (-0.27%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.347811 (-0.45%)
Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.69967 (-0.19%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) softened during Thursday’s Asian trading session as markets reacted to new data.
Australian consumer inflation expectations unexpectedly eased from 5.5% in June to 4.7% in July, the lowest reading since January.
The latest figures slightly dampened Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike expectations, although the impact was limited.
This allowed AUD to recoup some losses as European trade began.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) trended slightly lower on Thursday, with GBP surrendering some of Wednesday’s impressive gains.
Sterling had rallied in the middle of the week following reports that Shabana Mahmood is now the frontrunner for Chancellor in incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s cabinet, rather than Ed Miliband.
Miliband had been the favourite to enter Number 11, but there were concerns among investors that the soft-left MP would pursue less orthodox fiscal policy. Mahmood is seen as more market-friendly, with City figures welcoming reports that she could be Burnham’s choice.
However, the Pound couldn’t sustain its gains into Thursday, even with UK GDP printing as forecast to show a 0.1% recovery in May.
Following Wednesday’s gains, Sterling seemed to suffer some profit-taking.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Wider Trends to Drive the Pairing Looking ahead, economic data is thin on the ground for both the Pound and the Australian Dollar on Friday, likely leaving the pairing to trade on wider market trends.
Sterling may draw support as Andy Burnham is formally declared Labour leader, paving the way for him to enter Number 10 on Monday, if investors continue to feel more certain about the future of UK politics.
Meanwhile, market risk dynamics may drive the risk-sensitive ‘Aussie’. Events in the Middle East could be key, although the recent escalation in tensions has had a muted impact on the market mood so far.
USD/CNH remains range-bound as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continues to support the yuan with stronger daily fixings. Safe-haven demand for the US dollar is offsetting pressure from softer US inflation and expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Markets are closely watching China's economic data, PBoC policy, and upcoming US economic releases for the next direction in USD/CNH. The USD/CNH exchange rate traded in a relatively narrow range as investors balanced China’s efforts to stabilise the yuan against continued demand for the US dollar amid global uncertainty.
On one side, the People’s Bank of China has continued setting stronger-than-expected daily reference rates for the yuan, signalling its commitment to maintaining currency stability. On the other, the US dollar has remained supported by safe-haven flows despite softer inflation data that has strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year.
The competing macroeconomic forces have left USD/CNH largely range-bound as traders await fresh economic catalysts from both the United States and China.
PBoC Continues to Support the Chinese Yuan The Chinese yuan has found support as the People’s Bank of China continues to guide the currency through stronger-than-expected daily midpoint fixings.
The central bank has consistently set the official reference rate firmer than market estimates, signalling that policymakers are seeking to prevent excessive depreciation while maintaining orderly currency movements.
The PBoC has also injected additional liquidity into the financial system through reverse repurchase operations, aiming to support economic activity without triggering significant weakness in the yuan.
China’s authorities have increasingly relied on targeted monetary support and currency management to stabilise financial markets as the country navigates slower economic growth and weakness in its property sector.
US Dollar Supported Despite Softer Inflation Data While China’s policy actions have supported the yuan, the US dollar continues to benefit from broader global market dynamics.
Recent US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data pointed to easing inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin lowering interest rates in the coming months.
Ordinarily, softer inflation would weigh on the dollar. However, renewed geopolitical tensions and elevated demand for safe-haven assets have continued to underpin the greenback. Higher US Treasury yields have also helped attract global capital into dollar-denominated assets, limiting downside pressure on the currency.
This balance between improving inflation and continued safe-haven demand has prevented a sharper decline in USD/CNH.
China’s Economic Outlook Remains in Focus Investor sentiment toward the yuan continues to depend largely on China’s economic recovery. Markets remain closely focused on manufacturing activity, export performance, consumer spending and further government stimulus measures.
Recent policy support has helped improve confidence that Beijing remains committed to achieving its economic growth targets, but concerns over the property sector and weak domestic demand continue to weigh on sentiment.
As a result, every major economic release from China has the potential to influence expectations for further monetary easing and, by extension, the outlook for the yuan.
Federal Reserve and PBoC Policies Will Drive USD/CNH Monetary policy remains one of the biggest drivers of the USD/CNH exchange rate.
Investors continue to assess whether the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy later this year following signs that US inflation is cooling. Lower US interest rates would generally reduce support for the dollar.
Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China is expected to maintain a measured approach to monetary easing while continuing to manage exchange rate stability through its daily currency fixings and liquidity operations. The divergence between the Fed’s policy outlook and China’s currency management strategy is likely to remain a key theme for forex markets in the months ahead.
What This Means for USD/CNH The near-term outlook for USD/CNH will depend on whether China’s economic recovery gains momentum and how quickly the Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy.
The PBoC’s commitment to supporting the yuan has helped keep the currency relatively stable despite domestic economic challenges, while safe-haven demand has prevented the US dollar from weakening significantly. As markets digest upcoming economic data from both countries, traders will continue looking for signals that could determine whether USD/CNH breaks out of its recent trading range.
Why is USD/CNH in focus today?
USD/CNH is attracting attention as the People’s Bank of China continues setting stronger-than-expected daily yuan fixings while investors assess the impact of softer US inflation data and expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
What is the difference between USD/CNH and USD/CNY?
USD/CNH tracks the US dollar against the offshore Chinese yuan, which is traded in international financial markets such as Hong Kong. USD/CNY refers to the onshore yuan traded within mainland China under tighter management by the People’s Bank of China.
How does the People’s Bank of China influence USD/CNH?
The People’s Bank of China influences USD/CNH by setting a daily midpoint for the yuan, managing market liquidity, and implementing monetary policy measures. Stronger daily fixings and policy support can strengthen the yuan and put downward pressure on the USD/CNH exchange rate.
Key Points:Strong U.S. retail sales and resilient jobless claims reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.DXY remains below trendline resistance, with a break above 100.77 needed to revive near-term bullish momentum.EUR/USD continues consolidating beneath key resistance while holding above both major moving averages.GBP/USD remains in a broader uptrend as buyers defend trendline support despite the recent pullback.
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US Dollar News: Strong Data Reinforces Fed’s Cautious Stance The U.S. Dollar’s technical profile is underpinned by better than expected data which highlighted steady retail sales and a strong jobs market. June retail sales saw 0.2% month on month growth while the control group rose 0.4%, both indicating underlying resilience in consumer demand. Initial jobless claims came in at 221,000 which highlighted a strong labour market. The data has tempered expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates this year as retail sales and unemployment remain relatively strong even though overall growth has slowed.
Meanwhile, The Euro’s outlook is weighed down by slowing growth prospects in the eurozone with the ECB keeping rates stable at its 2.25% deposit rate, according to futures.
Sterling has also found support following the central bank’s hawkish policy stance after UK inflation remains too high. The consensus is that policymakers will be holding the Bank Rate at 3.75%. This view is consistent with persistent price pressures as well as some easing in the labor market, both before the next rate decision.
US Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Rejected Below Trendline as Bears Defend 100.77 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 100.69, after another test off the descending trendline at 100.77 resistance. DXY remains below 100.79 (50 EMA) and 100.87 (100 EMA) and the trendline which has been a source of repeated tests, confirming the short term bearish bias.
The 100.61 support level is followed by 100.52 and 100.35 while 100.77 resistance is followed by 101.03.RSI has dropped to ~47, indicating a potential slowdown in buyer momentum and a neutral-bearish tone overall. I’ll wait for the market to trade through 100.77 on my way to 101.03, with 100.61 being an important key level to flip if traded through.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pullback Holds Above Trendline as Uptrend Remains Intact GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is near 1.3472 after a retreat from last week’s highs around 1.3559. Buyers are defending the trendline, as GBP/USD remains above the 50 EMA at 1.3449 and the 100 EMA at 1.3415. The price remains bullish despite a short term decline since higher highs and higher lows are intact on a larger picture.
GBP/USD faces 1.3507 resistance, with 1.3560 resistance ahead of that. Price is supported by 1.3449, which is followed by 1.3340 support. The RSI cooled to ~51, indicating that the correction has likely been a short term dip rather than a trend reversal. I’ll look to trade a breakout through 1.3507 on my way to 1.3560, with a drop below 1.3449 likely targeting 1.3340.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls Hold Above 50 EMA While Testing Key Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The Euro is at 1.1450, consolidating below the 1.1461 resistance level after extending its rally in the previous sessions. The 1.1437 (50 EMA) and 1.1431 (100 EMA) levels are still supporting price action and the market remains bullish despite being turned down by overhead resistance.
The trend structure resembles a tightening symmetrical triangle with 1.1412 support at 1.1379. The 1.1461 resistance is followed by 1.1493.
The RSI is hovering around ~54, indicating a low degree of bullish momentum with room before entering overbought territory. I’ll wait for confirmation of a 1.1461 breach on my way to 1.1493, with a breakdown at 1.1412 likely sending price back toward 1.1379.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes EUR/USD is struggling for clear direction as the Iran conflict, Oil prices, and diverging inflation dynamics cloud the outlook. He highlights a strong link between Oil and ECB rate expectations, while the Fed faces falling inflation and AI-driven productivity hopes. With upcoming ECB and Fed meetings, EUR/USD is seen staying in a sideways trend.
Cross stuck in confused sideways trade"The euro side therefore seems to be looking to the oil price for guidance. At least that’s what the renewed strong correlation between the oil price and ECB interest rate expectations for December suggests. For the US dollar, however, things are even more complicated right now."
"The strength of the US dollar depends, at least in part, on its role as the world's leading currency and the world’s most important reserve currency. Part of the foundation of these functions is trust in the US and the US dollar. And that trust seems to be increasingly eroding."
"As we’ve mentioned before, this situation could very well persist for a while. The ECB and Fed meetings are scheduled for the next two weeks. However, we expect it will still be too early for the ECB to lock in another rate hike, while it’s likely too early for the Fed to adopt a more dovish tone just yet."
"EUR/USD could therefore remain stuck in a sideways trend for a little longer."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.6990 during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair edges down as the US Dollar ticks higher amid fears that the United States (US) inflation could re-accelerate after slowing down in June.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.80.
Fears of a resurgence in US inflation are prompted by elevated energy prices amid continued aggression in the Middle East. Above that, Iran has threatened to close the Red Sea if the United States (US) strikes Iranian infrastructure.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iranian bridges and power plants if Tehran doesn’t return to the table for negotiations.
On the Australian Dollar (AUD) front, investors await the employment data for June, which will be released next week.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades slightly lower at around 0.6990, but maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6969. The pair has recovered from late-May lows and is consolidating just over this dynamic floor, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 suggests neutral-to-positive momentum without yet reaching overbought conditions.
On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 0.6969, followed by the July 14 low at 0.6913. Below 0.6913, the pair could slide to near the March 30 low at 0.6833. Looking up, the pair could extend its advance towards the June 18 high at 0.7042.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Christopher Wong note GBP/USD has corrected sharply from recent highs near 1.3556 but now looks set to consolidate between 1.3450 and 1.3520 intraday. The 1–3 week outlook still sees renewed upward momentum, with 1.3590 as a key level to monitor, while a break below 1.3450 would point to a period of consolidation before any further gains.
Pound steadies after sharp retreat"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, GBP surged to a high of 1.3556. Yesterday, when GBP was at 1.3540, we indicated the following: “The sharp rally appears excessive, but with no sign of pause yet, GBP could continue to rise. However, given the deeply overbought conditions, any advance could be limited to a test of 1.3560.” Our assessment turned out to be incorrect, as GBP did not test 1.3560. Instead, it retreated sharply to a low of 1.3460 before closing 0.43% lower at 1.3480. The sharp pullback has stabilised somewhat, and instead of continuing to decline today, GBP is more likely to trade in a range between 1.3450 and 1.3520."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After GBP surged on Wednesday, we indicated yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 1.3540) that “the renewed upward momentum suggests that GBP has resumed its advance.” We also highlighted that “the level to monitor is 1.3590.” We did not expect GBP to pull back sharply to 1.3460. Upward momentum has eased somewhat, and a breach of 1.3450 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would suggest that GBP could consolidate first before pushing higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
USD/JPY steadies after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 162.40 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The location of prices over these key averages suggests buyers remain in control
Additionally, the daily technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY pair is remaining within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59.8 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting at sustained but measured upside pressure.
The USD/JPY pair could find initial resistance at the 40-year high of 162.84, which was reached on July 1. Further advances would support the pair to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 164.50.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 162.22, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 162.00. A sustained break below the channel would expose the 50-day EMA at 160.85. Further declines below the medium-term moving average would cause a bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the four-month low of 155.04, recorded on May 6.
USD/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.07%0.03%-0.03%-0.06%0.12%0.03%-0.11%EUR0.07%0.11%0.04%0.00%0.20%0.10%-0.04%GBP-0.03%-0.11%-0.07%-0.11%0.08%0.00%-0.16%JPY0.03%-0.04%0.07%-0.04%0.15%0.04%-0.08%CAD0.06%0.00%0.11%0.04%0.20%0.10%-0.04%AUD-0.12%-0.20%-0.08%-0.15%-0.20%-0.11%-0.24%NZD-0.03%-0.10%-0.00%-0.04%-0.10%0.11%-0.14%CHF0.11%0.04%0.16%0.08%0.04%0.24%0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
British Pound weakens below 1.3500 as US launches new wave of strikes against IranThe GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3470 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East trigger risk-off market sentiment and weigh on the Cable. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July is due later on Friday.
The United States (US) has carried out major strikes on Iran for the sixth day in a row. Officials in southern Iran’s Bandar Abbas reported that civilian infrastructure, including power facilities and a train station, has been hit. Read more...
The British Pound Sterling gets a new Prime Minister and an old problemSterling is enduring its heaviest session of the month, with GBP/USD fading around half of one percent to just below 1.3500 after the week's advance stalled short of 1.3550 for a second consecutive day. The pullback trims a July run that has carried the Pound roughly 400 pips off the yearly low printed just below 1.3150, and it arrives with the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index pressing overbought territory near 90, exactly the setup in which extended rallies get taxed.
Thursday's London data gave Sterling nothing to work with. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.1% MoM in May, barely reversing April's contraction, while industrial production fell 0.5% against expectations for a far shallower dip, and only a modest manufacturing beat kept the morning from reading as an outright stall. A Bank of England (BoE) deputy governor then delivered remarks that markets scored as unmistakably dovish for the speaker, leaning on growth risks rather than the inflation overshoot. Read more...
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 0.8% to near $55.00 during the early European trading session on Friday. The white metal posted a fresh Year-To-Date (YTD) low at $54.77 earlier in the day. The asset faces intense selling pressure amid fears that the global energy supply could be squeezed further, following threats from Iran that it will close the Red Sea.
During the day, Iran asked Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the United States (US) strikes Iranian power infrastructure, emerging as a new threat to global energy supply that is already squeezed due to US-Iran military aggression near the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports.
Iran’s Red Sea closure threat is a response to US President Donald Trump’s warning, through an interview with Fox News, that he will authorize forces to attack Iranian bridges and power plants if Tehran doesn’t come to the table for negotiations.
Fears of a further increase in oil prices due to energy supply concerns would keep inflation projections de-anchored, a scenario that forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions and eventually diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, a slight upbeat in the US Dollar amid fears that US inflation could re-accelerate due to higher energy prices after cooling down in June is also weighing on the Silver price. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.80. Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.
However, the decline in hawkish Fed bets due to soft US CPI data remains intact. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike in the meeting later this month have dropped significantly to 10.2% from 24.6% recorded a week ago.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 471.38 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 469.48 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,498.09 per tola from AED 5,475.88 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
471.38
10 Grams
4,713.81
Tola
5,498.09
Troy Ounce
14,661.61
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,898.31 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,867.96 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,124.66 per tola from PHP 91,770.38 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,898.31
10 Grams
78,983.37
Tola
92,124.66
Troy Ounce
245,665.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 481.76 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 480.07 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,619.25 per tola from SAR 5,599.49 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
481.76
10 Grams
4,817.68
Tola
5,619.25
Troy Ounce
14,984.61
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The EUR/USD pair ticks lower for the second straight day on Friday as energy-driven inflation fears revive US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and support the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1435 region, though the lack of follow-through selling warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the pullback from a nearly four-week high, touched on Wednesday.
From a technical perspective, this week's breakout momentum above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall faltered near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 50, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is drifting marginally negative. Momentum indicators hint that bullish attempts may remain constrained.
On the downside, the main structural support is located at the Fibonacci anchor near 1.1330, which aligns with the latest swing low and could attract buyers on a deeper pullback.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-period SMA at 1.1477 ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.1508. A sustained break above these would open the door toward higher Fibonacci hurdles at 1.1563 and 1.1618, if bullish pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,718.35 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,563.21 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 416,604.50 per tola from PKR 414,802.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,718.35
10 Grams
357,177.20
Tola
416,604.50
Troy Ounce
1,110,971.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 523.84 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 521.57 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,110.20 per tola from MYR 6,083.48 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
523.84
10 Grams
5,238.60
Tola
6,110.20
Troy Ounce
16,292.93
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,367.41 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,311.85 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 144,249.10 per tola from INR 143,603.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,367.41
10 Grams
123,672.40
Tola
144,249.10
Troy Ounce
384,696.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.35 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Fears of possible intervention from Japanese officials provide some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered verbal intervention again on Friday, saying that "if it becomes necessary, we will take decisive action at any time.” This remark came ahead of a holiday weekend in Japan, a timing that in the past has been used for late-night interventions.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will meet later this month after hiking interest rates to the highest level in three decades in June. The Japanese central bank is anticipated to raise rates again before the end of the year, but it isn’t expected to move at the July policy meeting.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as spot price advances above both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ middle line, hinting at firm underlying demand. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.03 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought levels, suggesting that the latest upswing still has room to extend while prices remain supported above these key averages.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the Bollinger upper band around 113.80, where fresh supply could slow the rally. The next hurdle to watch is the May 13 high of 114.74. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.70, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 112.45 and the lower band near 111.05, levels that together outline the main downside cushions in case of a corrective pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a part of the previous day's losses back closer to the monthly low. Any meaningful recovery, however, seems elusive amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. Crude oil prices have jumped over 10% this week as renewed US-Iran clashes stoked supply concerns, reviving inflation fears and lifting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer. This, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and undermining the non-yielding bullion.
The US-Iran conflict is entering a dangerous new phase as both sides exchanged intensifying fire on Thursday, with the latter expanding its military campaign beyond conventional military targets. In fact, officials in southern Iran's Bandar Abbas reported that civilian infrastructure – including power facilities and a train station – has been hit. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting US-allied Gulf nations. Tensions have also escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, with the US intercepting commercial vessels attempting to breach its naval blockade around Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had threatened to expand the conflict by targeting additional regional energy supply routes. In fact, Reuters reported that Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route. This helps crude oil prices in preserving the recent gains at a one-month high, reviving concerns about energy-driven inflation. Adding to this, the upbeat US macro data and hawkish comments from influential Fed officials reinforced expectations that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year.
The US Labor Department reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 208 K for the week ended July 11. The reading was below consensus estimates and underscored the resilience of the US labor market. Separately, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged from 10.3 to 41.4 in July, hitting its highest level since November 2021 and indicating a rapid acceleration in regional factory activity. Further details revealed that both price indicators continued to signal rising prices.
Furthermore, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that the positive news this week on consumer and wholesale prices still wasn’t good enough to signal real help for US households. She called for modestly higher interest rates to win a battle the central bank has been losing for the past five years. Apart from this, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that he would be open to raising rates if inflation does not show near-term improvement. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a nearly 75% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) Fed rate hike by December.
The aforementioned factors favor the USD bulls, suggesting that any subsequent recovery in the Gold price is more likely to be sold into and fizzle out rather quickly. Traders now look forward to Friday's US economic docket – featuring Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production data, and the prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. This, along with Fed speak, would drive the USD and provide some impetus to the Gold price, which remains on track to register losses for the second consecutive week.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold’s bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful recoveryFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair has been trending lower along a downward-sloping channel and remains below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This reaffirms the near-term bearish outlook for Gold and suggests that rallies are likely to remain capped within the broader corrective phase. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned modestly positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40 hints at only a tentative stabilization rather than a sustained recovery.
Hence, any further move up could face an initial hurdle at the channel top near $4,082.74, with stronger structural resistance at the 200-day SMA clustered around $4,495.44. On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel at $3,661.05 acts as key support, and a decisive break below this zone would reinforce the prevailing bearish structure and expose further downside within the current trend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross is holding above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which reinforces a constructive near-term bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55.17, neutral-to-positive territory, suggesting steady bullish momentum rather than an overstretched rally.
The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross is pressing against ascending triangle resistance near 186.00. This flat ceiling, combined with shallower dips, signals aggressive buying pressure. Because bulls are consistently absorbing the supply at this level, momentum is heavily building for an imminent upside breakout. A decisive daily close above this upper boundary typically triggers a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.42, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.09. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 184.80. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.02%0.06%0.00%-0.04%0.12%0.04%0.00%EUR-0.02%0.06%-0.04%-0.09%0.13%0.03%-0.02%GBP-0.06%-0.06%-0.09%-0.14%0.06%-0.02%-0.08%JPY0.00%0.04%0.09%-0.03%0.15%0.04%0.01%CAD0.04%0.09%0.14%0.03%0.19%0.09%0.05%AUD-0.12%-0.13%-0.06%-0.15%-0.19%-0.11%-0.14%NZD-0.04%-0.03%0.02%-0.04%-0.09%0.11%-0.04%CHF-0.00%0.02%0.08%-0.01%-0.05%0.14%0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
But a strong recovery above $4,200 after a drop to $3,850 will increase the chances of an upside breakout. A break above $4,200 will push prices towards $4,350. On the other hand, a break above $4,350 will open the door for a move towards the $5,000 area. A break below $3,850 will increase the chances of a strong and quick drop in the gold market to mark the final low.
Gold Must Reclaim $4,200 to Confirm a Bullish Reversal The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows strong bearish price action since March 2026. The formation of rounding tops below $5,000 and then below $4,500 indicates bearish pressure in gold. Prices must recover above $4,200 in the short term to confirm bottom and initiate a rally towards $4,500. A break above $4,500 will be a positive sign and open the door for a move towards $5,000.
USD/JPY started a fresh increase above 162.00 and 162.20. A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 161.90 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD again failed to gain strength for a move above 1.1475. GBP/USD rallied above 1.3450 before it faced sellers near 1.3560. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar remained supported above 161.50 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY gained strength for a fresh move above 162.00.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the 162.70 swing high to the 161.28 low. The pair even settled above 162.20, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
On the upside, the pair could face strong resistance at 162.70. The next major resistance might be 162.85. A close above 162.85 could start a steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 163.50.
If there is a downside correction, the pair might find support near 162.00. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 161.90.
The first major support could be near 161.30 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 161.30 might send the pair toward 161.00. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 160.00.
Looking at EUR/USD, the pair attempted a fresh increase, but the bears are still active near the 1.1475 resistance zone.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US Import Price Index for June 2026 (MoM) – Forecast -0.7%, versus +1.9% previous. US Export Price Index for June 2026 (MoM) – Forecast -0.4%, versus +1.3% previous. US Industrial Production for June 2026 (MoM) – Forecast 0.2%, versus 0.1% previous. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July 2026 (Prelim) – Forecast 51.0, versus 49.5 previous.
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Silver price (XAG/USD) remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around $55.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Silver is on track to drop over 7% this week as escalating Middle East tensions drive oil prices up. This surge in energy costs has kept inflation and interest rate concerns at the absolute forefront of investors' minds, pulling momentum away from the non-yielding precious metal.
Reuters reported on Thursday that Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the critical Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure, presenting a potent new threat to global energy supplies. Amplifying these concerns, the Tasnim news agency reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Ahvaz, while very loud explosions were also heard in Kuwait and as far away as Basra.
These geopolitical flare-ups follow threats made earlier this week by US President Donald Trump, who stated the US would strike Iran's bridges and power plants next week if the country does not return to the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, this week's softer-than-expected US inflation data has effectively eliminated the chance of a July rate hike, even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterates his strict commitment to fighting inflation and restoring price stability. However, the market remains sharply divided over whether the Fed will resume tightening in September. This lingering uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on Silver, keeping the non-yielding metals under pressure.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7934 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7909 and 6.7734 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to near an eight-month low around $3,975 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends its downside as rising tensions in the Middle East raise inflation concerns and reinforce expectations of elevated US interest rates.
Reuters reported on Thursday that Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure, posing a potent new threat to global energy supplies. This action came after US President Donald Trump’s threat to attack Iran's power infrastructure on Tuesday.
Any threat to the Red Sea risks hugely exacerbating the global energy crisis triggered by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and underscores the explosive risks stemming from a new round of warfare. This, in turn, could push crude oil prices up and could prompt central banks to hold rates at elevated levels for longer, weighing on gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
The developments surrounding Middle East conflicts overshadow recent optimism over easing inflation. Data released on Tuesday showed that US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in June, while data from Wednesday showed a decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI).
Traders are now pricing in nearly a 55% odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The GBP/JPY retreats some 0.34% on Thursday after the pair reached a new 18-year high of 219.62 on Wednesday. Nevertheless, at the time of writing, the cross-pair retreated to 218.80, down 0.34%, as the Yen recovers some ground.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY trend is up, even though it fell short of breaking 220.00, which could’ve opened the door for further gains. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is bullish, and as of writing, the index is dipping ahead of turning overbought. This triggered a leg down in the GBP/JPY pair, though further upside is seen.
Ahead of Friday’s Asian session, the first key resistance level is 219.00. If GBP/JPY clears that level, the 18-year high of 219.61 is up next, ahead of challenging the 22.00 mark. A decisive breach of the psychological 220.50 will expose the 221.00 level ahead.
On the other hand, if the retreat of GBP/JPY extends past 218.00, a move lower towards the April 30 high, which turned support at 216.60, is likely. If hurdled, the next area of interest would be the 216.00 figure, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 214.72.
GBP/JPY Price Chart — Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.35%-0.67%0.37%-0.80%-0.71%-1.27%0.10%EUR0.35%-0.31%0.74%-0.46%-0.40%-0.94%0.46%GBP0.67%0.31%1.01%-0.13%-0.09%-0.61%0.82%JPY-0.37%-0.74%-1.01%-1.26%-1.08%-1.69%-0.32%CAD0.80%0.46%0.13%1.26%0.17%-0.46%0.96%AUD0.71%0.40%0.09%1.08%-0.17%-0.54%0.77%NZD1.27%0.94%0.61%1.69%0.46%0.54%1.46%CHF-0.10%-0.46%-0.82%0.32%-0.96%-0.77%-1.46% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold has reached a bearish technical milestone after broad-based selling pushed XAU/USD to its weakest daily close since October. While the broader trend favours further downside, nearby support levels and relatively subdued options positioning suggest bears may need to stay nimble.
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British Pound Surges on Treasury Pick Bets, GBP/AUD Eyes Breakout Nasdaq 100 Coils Ahead of ASML Earnings as AI Leadership Faces a Test US Dollar Slips, but Gold Bulls Are Not Out of the Woods Japanese Yen Short Covering Raises the Stakes for USD/JPY XAU/USD Posts First Daily Close Below 4,000 Since October Gold Breaks Below 4,000 as Dollar Steadies Gold futures saw a daily close below 4,000 for the first time since October on Thursday. And it didn’t take much of a rise in the US dollar for gold bears to enjoy their breakout. The US dollar index rose just 0.17%, recouping less than a third of the losses accumulated over the previous two days. I had already noted that gold appeared vulnerable to a break lower, given bulls had failed to make any impact despite the US dollar falling a full 1% on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Source: LSEG
Gold's Broad-Based Decline Raises Bearish Risks Gold’s losses weren’t limited to the US dollar either, as it fell against all major currencies by at least 1.6%. Using gold as the benchmark, the Canadian dollar was the strongest major currency against it, with XAU/CAD down 2% on Thursday. Gold was also just shy of 2% lower against the Australian dollar, Japanese yen and euro. Looking at this week’s performance, gold has lost the most ground against the New Zealand dollar. When gold’s performance is consistently weak across the board, it becomes hard to ignore, and that could put traders on guard for a bearish breakout.
Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis It is hard to argue with gold's bearish trend overall, given its series of lower lows and lower highs. Yet despite the daily close below 4,000, bulls still appear to be putting up a fight. Thursday's bearish engulfing day only closed marginally below the key psychological level, while the June low at 3955.4 is also close by.
We may see a spike lower during the Asian or European session, although the nearby June low could increase the risk of a bearish shakeout and two-way volatility. The October low, just above 3900, also sits close to the weekly VPOC, providing technical support that could stifle any runaway bearish breakout for now.
While downside risks remain, bears may also want to stay nimble given the cluster of nearby support levels. Lower timeframes may therefore be better suited to managing the increased risk of volatility.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Gold Options Markets Remain Calm Despite the Breakdown A slight word of caution for bears also comes from the options market. Implied volatility is neither rising nor particularly high by this year's standards. Risk reversals also remain elevated, although they edged lower on Thursday to reflect increased demand for puts relative to calls. Yet despite gold trading below its June 11 low, risk reversals remain well above their corresponding lows. That suggests options traders are less concerned about further downside than spot prices currently imply. That view may change if gold eventually breaks below 3,900.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate is trading around 1.1440 after remaining relatively resilient through July, but HSBC expects renewed US Dollar strength to weigh on EUR/USD over the coming months.
HSBC argues that the recent Dollar recovery reflects a combination of resilient US growth, interest-rate expectations and the relative attractiveness of US assets.
The bank expects the Federal Reserve to remain cautious on easing policy, while the Eurozone faces weaker growth prospects and ongoing uncertainty linked to energy prices.
HSBC’s outlook is based on a view that the Dollar’s recent weakness will prove temporary as markets refocus on rate differentials and the strength of the US economy.
The bank highlights that geopolitical risks and higher energy prices remain particularly challenging for Europe, with renewed pressure on gas supplies posing a threat to Eurozone growth and inflation.
According to HSBC, the Euro’s recent resilience does not change the broader outlook, with the currency still vulnerable if investors return to favouring US assets.
The bank sees EUR/USD falling towards 1.10 as the Dollar gradually regains ground, with the widening contrast between US economic performance and European challenges expected to remain a key driver.
However, HSBC acknowledges that the path lower may not be straightforward, with periods of Dollar consolidation possible as markets continue to assess Federal Reserve policy and global risk conditions.
The USD/CHF reversed course, rising by over 0.40% late Thursday as the Greenback staged a recovery amid overall risk aversion, heightened tensions in the Middle East, and strong US economic data. The pair trades at 0.8088 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.8045.
USD/CHF price forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/CHF made a U-turn after testing the March 31 high-turned-support at 0.8042, exacerbating a move toward 0.8100.
Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bulls are gathering some steam after taking a breather on Wednesday, as the index briefly touched the 50-neutral level. Since then, the RSI’s aim has been toward the 60 level, an indication that the uptrend might continue.
If USD/CHF climbs above 0.8100, this opens the door to test the August 1, 2025 daily peak at 0.8171, and then the June 4, 2025 high at 0.8250. Conversely, a drop below 0.8100 opens the door to test the psychological 0.8000 level. Below this area lies the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7967, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7919.
USD/CHF Price Chart — Daily
USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.19%0.46%0.11%0.05%0.06%0.09%0.41%EUR-0.19%0.28%-0.07%-0.13%-0.04%-0.08%0.21%GBP-0.46%-0.28%-0.35%-0.39%-0.33%-0.35%-0.04%JPY-0.11%0.07%0.35%-0.08%0.03%-0.01%0.29%CAD-0.05%0.13%0.39%0.08%0.10%0.07%0.37%AUD-0.06%0.04%0.33%-0.03%-0.10%-0.01%0.27%NZD-0.09%0.08%0.35%0.01%-0.07%0.01%0.29%CHF-0.41%-0.21%0.04%-0.29%-0.37%-0.27%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
