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Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Tuesday as buying interest around the $4,000 psychological level supports prices, while traders assess developments in the Middle East and their potential economic fallout. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,058, up 1.27% on the day.
The United States military carried out a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted US military assets across the region.
Despite the continued military exchanges, diplomatic efforts are underway. The Associated Press reported that Iranian officials began meeting with mediators in Pakistan on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Monday that mediators had offered Tehran a 10-day ceasefire to try to bring last month’s interim agreement back on track.
With the situation still in flux, the US Dollar (USD) remains the preferred safe-haven asset, while Oil prices hold close to their highest level in more than a month. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering just below the 101.00 mark, little changed on the day.
Although Gold is attempting to establish a base above the $4,000 psychological level, its upside remains limited as elevated energy prices stoke inflation concerns and strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep monetary policy tighter for longer or even raise interest rates.
Higher borrowing costs reduce Gold's appeal, prompting investors to rotate toward interest-bearing assets such as government bonds.
Dollar support builds as Gulf tensions weigh on goldAnalysts at ING note that “the FX market is gradually catching up with developments in the Gulf, where tensions still appear to be escalating, and the Dollar has found broad-based support.” They highlight that US President Donald Trump has “pledged retaliation against Iran following the killing of three US service members in Jordan,” while Houthi militants are “threatening a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea,” reinforcing the bid for the Dollar as geopolitical risks intensify.
Strategists at OCBC say Gold has "continued to consolidate around recent lows following the sharp pullback earlier this month," adding that "near term, price action may remain two-way, but a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations. Until then, upside may remain capped."
XAU/USD is testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,062. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 on the daily chart is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 39 suggests the prevailing trend remains strong despite the near-term stabilization.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the $4,000 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at $3,948. A break below this area could expose the horizontal support at $3,800.
On the topside, a sustained move above the Bollinger midline at $4,062 could open the door toward the upper band at $4,175, followed by the $4,200 resistance level. A decisive break above $4,200 would bring the more distant $4,500 barrier into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The US Dollar to Yen exchange rate is trading around 162.66, close to July’s high of 162.84 and its strongest levels in decades.
The pair has gained from around 159.36 at the start of June, although it remains narrowly lower for July after briefly falling to 160.65 earlier this month.
ING believes USD/JPY could break above the 162.75-162.85 resistance area over the coming sessions as higher energy prices support the Dollar and increase pressure on Japan’s trade position.
Deteriorating news from the Gulf has pushed oil, natural gas and refined-product prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and reducing investors’ willingness to sell existing Dollar positions.
ING said it was “slightly surprising not to see the dollar a little stronger”, particularly as higher energy prices mean the Federal Reserve must remain alert to renewed inflation pressure.
Japan is particularly exposed to rising energy costs because it relies heavily on imported oil and gas. That backdrop can weaken the Yen while supporting currencies of energy exporters, including the US Dollar.
The bank also noted that Japanese authorities did not intervene during Monday’s Marine Day holiday, leaving traders free to test the upper end of the recent USD/JPY range.
According to ING, “it would not be a surprise to see USD/JPY briefly break above 162.75/85 over coming sessions” if the Bank of Japan remains absent from the market.
ING expects the broader Dollar index to find support near 100.50 and potentially recover towards 101.30, with persistent Gulf tensions and elevated energy prices limiting the scope for near-term Dollar weakness.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate is trading around 1.1426, little changed during July after falling 2.0% in June. The pair reached a 2026 high above 1.2075 in January before retreating, while June’s low near 1.1325 marked its weakest level since July 2025.
Image: Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate - 24 hour chart Bank of America remains short EUR/USD, arguing that the Dollar’s resilience despite narrowing short-term interest-rate spreads is encouraging for USD bulls.
US two-year rate differentials against the DXY currency basket narrowed by around 13 basis points following softer inflation data and increased expectations of rate rises elsewhere. However, the resulting Dollar decline was comparatively modest.
BofA believes medium-term growth prospects and five-year real yields currently provide a better guide to currency performance than front-end spreads. US real-rate differentials remain elevated, while the American economy continues to show greater resilience than many of its peers.
The bank said bullish Dollar positioning is “far from historical extremes”, suggesting investors still have room to increase USD exposure despite the shift in sentiment since the June Federal Reserve meeting.
BofA economists continue to forecast three Federal Reserve rate increases during the second half of 2026, compared with substantially less tightening currently priced by markets.
The bank therefore retains its three-month EUR/USD put spread targeting the 1.15-1.13 area, citing diverging US and Eurozone data, energy-price risks and supportive technical signals.
BofA forecasts EUR/USD at 1.12 at the end of the third quarter, before a recovery to 1.15 at year-end and 1.20 by the end of 2027. It remains cautious on the Euro through the summer but retains a more constructive medium-term view as US and Eurozone growth begin to converge.
The Pound has slipped from last week's highs after UK wage growth softened, while the Euro faces Thursday's European Central Bank decision and renewed concern over the impact of higher energy prices. The Pound-to-Euro exchange rate edged lower on Tuesday as investors assessed a cooling UK labour market and the new government's first.
GBP/USD remains weaker for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.3430 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a prevailing bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel.
The GBP/USD pair is holding a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of shorter and longer EMAs below price suggests an underpinning uptrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 55 points to steady, rather than overstretched, positive momentum. Read more...
GBP/USD falls after cabinet changesGBP/USD fell to 1.3437 on Tuesday as investors assessed the appointment of Andy Burnham as the new Prime Minister of the UK and the outlook for monetary policy.
Burnham succeeded Keir Starmer without a contest, becoming the country's seventh prime minister in the past decade and the second since the Labour Party returned to power in 2024. Read more...
British Pound attracts bids after UK employment data releaseThe British Pound (GBP) snaps a three-day losing streak against the Japanese Yen (JPY), rebounding to near 218.55 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The cross attracts bids after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending May.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that the economy created 147K fresh jobs, higher than the previous reading of 100K. The ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9%, while it was expected to arrive higher at 5%. Read more...
Gold price (XAU/USD) is up 1.5% to near $4,067 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal outperforms as the rally in oil prices has stalled, with investors turning confident that negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran towards peace have resumed.
In European trade, the WTI Oil price turns positive to near $82.65 after recovering early losses, but corrected sharply after registering a fresh monthly high at $84.42.
Lower oil prices ease inflation expectations and fears of interest rate hikes from central banks, a scenario that bodes well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Meanwhile, a slight correction in the US Dollar due to risk-on market sentiment is also supporting the Gold price. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.90.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Gold price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
On the US interest rate front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged in the policy meeting next week.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades higher at around $4,069.52, closer to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $4,089.31. The precious metal attempts a breakout of the Descending Triangle formation after remaining sideways for almost a month.
Momentum remains subdued with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 45 and signaling a lack of bullish conviction.
On the downside, immediate support is seen around the recent break-price area near $4,043, before the rising trend-line floor at $3,941.63. On the topside, the 20-period EMA at $4,089.31 is the first meaningful barrier that gold must reclaim to ease near-term downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery towards the July 6 high around $4,200.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
– Platinum reversed from key support level 1555.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 1680.00
Platinum recently reversed up from the key support level 1555.00 (which stopped the previous waves iii and 5) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1555.00 started the active minor impulse wave iii – that belongs to higher impulse waves 1 and (1).
Given the strength of the support level 1555.00 and the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, Platinum can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1680.00.
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Market outlook: Gold, crypto and US indices test important breakout levels At the time of this market review, precious metals and major cryptocurrencies were producing some of the clearest bullish signals. US stock indices were also recovering, although several important resistance levels still stood between a rebound and a more convincing bullish continuation.
Can the US stock index recovery continue?S&P 500 futures recovered from support and turned higher. A sustained move above the previous high near 7,550 could open a path toward 7,600. Another rejection from 7,550, however, would leave the recovery vulnerable.
The Dow Jones also recovered after briefly trading below support. For the Dow Jones cash index, 52,150 is the main bullish confirmation level. Acceptance above it would suggest that buyers are regaining control.
Educational insight: A market touching resistance is not the same as breaking it. Acceptance generally means price remains above the level for a meaningful period and successfully defends it during a pullback.
Are gold and silver still bullish?Gold has broken above an important resistance structure extending from its April high. The 4,040-4,045 area could now act as support if price returns to test it.
Holding above that zone would preserve the bullish structure. Sustained trade back below it would warn that the breakout may have failed, particularly if buyers cannot quickly reclaim the area.
Silver also defended major longer-term support before turning higher.
Two additional metals are approaching important confirmation levels:
Platinum: A sustained move above approximately $1,710 would strengthen the case for a larger advance. Palladium: Buyers need to clear approximately $1,375 before the broader outlook becomes more convincingly bullish. A useful concept here is the support-resistance flip. When price breaks above resistance, traders often watch whether the same area becomes support during the next pullback. If it does, the breakout gains credibility. If it does not, the move may have been a temporary overshoot.
What levels matter for Bitcoin and Ethereum?Ethereum has cleared an important longer-term resistance area, placing approximately $2,150 on the map as the next potential upside objective.
Bitcoin also looks constructive after defending major support near $57,000. With price recently around $65,500, the $64,000 area becomes an important short-term reference:
Holding above $64,000 supports bullish continuation. Sustained trade below $64,000 would weaken the breakout. A failed breakdown followed by a quick recovery above $64,000 could show that buyers are still active. Can crude oil break through resistance?Crude oil has recovered toward possible resistance near $90, while Brent crude faces a comparable test around $95.
Acceptance above these areas would improve the bullish outlook. Rejection, especially after only a brief move through resistance, could lead to another pullback.
Round numbers such as $90 and $95 often attract additional activity because traders use them for entries, exits and option positioning. That does not make them automatic turning points, but it can increase volatility around the initial test.
Why does cocoa remain vulnerable?Cocoa is one of the clearer bearish exceptions in this market review. Price rejected overhead resistance and could revisit the $5,000 area. A temporary move below that level is also possible if selling pressure accelerates.
The important distinction is whether cocoa merely touches $5,000 or begins spending time below it. A quick recovery could indicate that sellers failed to establish control, while sustained trade underneath would reinforce the bearish case.
These levels may refer to different instruments, including futures, cash indices and spot markets. Prices can vary between platforms, contracts and CFDs, so readers should confirm the corresponding levels on the instrument they trade. This analysis is educational and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell.
Societe Generale strategists note that dip buying in Sterling has kept GBP/USD trading above its 200-day moving average near 1.3403, even as Gilts remain under pressure. The pair trades within a 1.3400–1.3500 range, with investors assessing the appointment of new Chancellor John Healey and upcoming UK CPI data, which they expect to show a modest easing in headline and services inflation.
Sterling supported as investors eye CPI"Dip buying in sterling keeps GBP/USD above the 200dma (1.3403) and halts the rebound in EUR/GBP. UK CPI for June will be published tomorrow. SG economics forecast a dip in headline to 2.7% yoy from 2.8%, below the BoE estimate, and in services to 3.6% from 3.7% but no change in core at 2.6%."
"Wage data was not a market mover for the BoE but the small decrease in private sector pay to 2.9% yoy is welcome and minor relief in the broader debate about inflation and threat of second round effects. The premium of Gilts over Bunds trades close to the highs of the Truss debacle in September 2022 at 140bp."
"Notwithstanding the decline in public borrowing by £4bn between May and June thanks to the fall in debt interest payments, the deficit is running £2.7bn ahead of the OBR forecast for the April to June period because of the overshoot in spending by £3.6bn. Receipts are up 7.2% yoy."
"Though the spread has come from just over 170bp at the end of 2024, there should be scope for further tightening if the new chancellor can navigate public finances to safer waters in the autumn budget. The structurally higher level of inflation in the UK compared to the eurozone is the second if not the most important part of the bond jigsaw. Political stability, a rare commodity since the EU referendum in 2016, could tempt investors to turn more bullish on Gilts provided inflation and levels of government spending can be brought under control. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.96 per troy ounce, up 4.54% from the $56.40 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.05% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.92 on Tuesday, down from 71.06 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) is rallying, favoured by a mild US Dollar weakness on Tuesday. The precious metal is testing one-week highs at the $59.70 area at the time of writing as investors hope that mediators’ efforts to achieve a new ceasefire between the US and Iran are offsetting fears that the conflict might escalate out of control.
US attacked Iran for the 1th day in a row, and Iran responded by targeting US assets in Gulf Countries. The key Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the Iran-backed Houthis have announced the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi Arabian vessels, which might further strangle Oil supply.
Markets, however, are keeping the faith that efforts to cease hostilities will succeed, which explains the mild reversal on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Axios reported earlier on Tuesday that the Trump administration is exploring the peace proposal and that it has urged Israel to avoid steps that might close the diplomatic window.
Technical Analysis: Bulls breached the descending trendline
XAG/USD trades at $58.97, after breaking the descending trendline resistance from late May, early June highs, with momentum indicators supporting the bullish view. The 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (14) is getting close but not yet at overbought levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator extends gains in positive territory, hinting that buyers remain in control while price presses into nearby overhead levels.
Bulls seem to have met some resistance in the middle range of the $59.00s, which capped rallies on July 14 and 15. Further up, a support-turned-resistance at $63.10 and a similar area just ahead of the $67.00 level are the next targets.
On the downside, the broken trendline, now at $56.45, and the year-to-date low, a few cents below $55.00, are likely to challenge bears. If these levels are broken, sellers might feel attracted by the late October 2025 low, at $48.64.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang judges GBP/USD price action as range-bound after an unexpected intraday spike and sharp drop. The pair is now expected to hold between 1.3400 and 1.3460 in the short term, with a broader 1.3385–1.3495 range for the coming weeks. Momentum indicators are flat, suggesting neutral direction with wider supports at 1.3210 and 1.3160.
Sterling-Dollar momentum fades into consolidation"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we highlighted that GBP “is likely to trade in a range between 1.3420 and 1.3475.” The subsequent price movements did not turn out as expected. GBP rose to 1.3481 before declining sharply to a low of 1.3414. The decline could extend further, but given the lack of any significant increase in downward momentum, GBP is likely to remain within a 1.3400/1.3460 range."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (20 Jul, spot at 1.3445) remains valid. As highlighted, the recent “build-up in upward momentum has faded,” and GBP “has likely entered a range-trading phase between 1.3385 and 1.3495.”."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
GBP/USD remains weaker for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.3430 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a prevailing bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel.
The GBP/USD pair is holding a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of shorter and longer EMAs below price suggests an underpinning uptrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 55 points to steady, rather than overstretched, positive momentum.
The GBP/USD pair may rise toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3630, followed by the five-month high of 1.3658, reached on May 1. A break above this level would expose 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.
On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3426, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3386. A successful break below the medium-term average would expose nearly an eight-month low of 1.3140, recorded on June 24.
GBP/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.02%0.11%-0.04%-0.35%-0.36%-0.02%EUR0.08%0.10%0.17%0.04%-0.25%-0.28%0.06%GBP-0.02%-0.10%0.07%-0.06%-0.35%-0.38%-0.04%JPY-0.11%-0.17%-0.07%-0.15%-0.44%-0.48%-0.13%CAD0.04%-0.04%0.06%0.15%-0.30%-0.32%0.02%AUD0.35%0.25%0.35%0.44%0.30%-0.03%0.31%NZD0.36%0.28%0.38%0.48%0.32%0.03%0.34%CHF0.02%-0.06%0.04%0.13%-0.02%-0.31%-0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Sterling enters this week on firmer footing, with political uncertainty fading fast after Andy Burnham's confirmation as Labour leader eased investor concerns over the succession to Keir Starmer. Markets reacted further to reports pointing to Shabana Mahmood as the frontrunner for Chancellor, viewed as the more fiscally disciplined choice.
AUD/USD has broken to its highest level in four weeks, but the rally still lacks a convincing domestic foundation. The Australian Dollar has benefited from a favorable global backdrop as risk appetite improved across Asia, the Dollar weakened broadly, and copper prices surged on worsening supply disruptions in Chile. Additional support came from New Zealand, where stronger-than-expected inflation data lifted the Kiwi and added momentum to antipodean currencies more generally.
Those tailwinds, however, are largely external. Whether the Aussie can extend its gains will depend far more on Australia’s labor market report due on Thursday. Employment has shown little net progress over the past two months, following a -40.7k decline in April and a 40.3k rebound in May, raising questions about whether tighter monetary policy, higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty are beginning to cool hiring. Consensus forecasts call for employment to rise by 15k in June while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.
The labor market data could also prove decisive for interest rate expectations. Investors currently see only about a one-in-five chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver a fourth rate hike this year in August. That leaves employment data with considerable scope to shift market pricing.
A disappointing report would strengthen the case that policy tightening is gaining traction and further reduce expectations for an August increase. On the other hand, another solid employment gain would reinforce the resilience of the economy and reopen the debate over additional tightening.
Technically, AUD/USD’s breach of 0.7020 temporary top suggests that rebound from 0.6864 is resuming. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 0.7277 to 0.6864 at 0.7022 will argue that whole decline form 0.7277 has already completed, and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.7119 and possibly above.
However, rejection by 0.7022, followed by break of 0.6964 support will argue that the rebound has completed as a correction. And in this case, fall from 0.7277 could be ready to resume through 0.6864 low.
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USD/JPY traded near 162.50 as investors waited for clarity on the US-Iran conflict and its impact on global markets. The Japanese yen remained under pressure ahead of Friday's Japan inflation report, which could shape expectations for the Bank of Japan's next policy move. The US dollar stayed supported as markets weighed the possibility of further Federal Reserve tightening and continued geopolitical uncertainty. The USD/JPY exchange rate traded little changed around 162.50 on Tuesday as investors refrained from taking large positions ahead of key economic data from Japan and fresh developments in the conflict between the United States and Iran.
The pair continues to hover close to its highest level in decades, reflecting the wide interest-rate gap between the United States and Japan. While expectations for further Bank of Japan policy normalisation have offered intermittent support to the yen this year, demand for the US dollar has remained resilient as geopolitical risks and higher Treasury yields continue to favour the greenback.
Markets are now waiting for Japan’s June inflation report and signs of whether Washington and Tehran move toward a ceasefire or a further escalation in hostilities.
Why Is USD/JPY Holding Above 162? The biggest factor supporting USD/JPY remains the divergence between US and Japanese monetary policy.
Although the Bank of Japan has started moving away from ultra-loose monetary settings, Japanese interest rates remain significantly lower than those in the United States. That continues to encourage investors to favour dollar-denominated assets over the yen.
The dollar has also benefited from renewed geopolitical uncertainty after reports suggested President Donald Trump is weighing two possible paths: accepting a proposed 10-day ceasefire with Iran or supporting a broader military campaign alongside Israel.
The uncertainty has increased demand for the US dollar, helping keep USD/JPY close to multi-decade highs.
Will Japan’s Inflation Data Move the Yen? Attention is now turning to Friday’s Japan National Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, one of the most closely watched releases for yen traders this week. Economists expect core inflation, which excludes fresh food, to rise 1.6% year-on-year, up from 1.4% previously. A stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce expectations that the Bank of Japan could continue gradually tightening monetary policy after years of ultra-low interest rates.
Conversely, weaker inflation would reduce pressure on policymakers to raise rates further and could keep the yen under pressure against the US dollar. For currency markets, the inflation report is likely to become the biggest domestic catalyst for USD/JPY before the Bank of Japan’s next policy meeting.
How Is the US-Iran Conflict Affecting USD/JPY? Geopolitical developments remain another major driver of the currency pair. According to reports, Iran has received a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, while the United States is considering whether to resume diplomatic negotiations or intensify military operations.
The uncertainty has lifted demand for safe-haven assets, although this time the US dollar has attracted stronger inflows than the Japanese yen. Higher oil prices resulting from the conflict have also revived concerns that inflation could remain elevated globally, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.
That combination has continued to underpin the dollar against most major currencies, including the yen.
US PMI Data Could Set the Next Direction for USD/JPY Beyond geopolitical developments, investors will also focus on Thursday’s S&P Global PMI reports from the United States. The manufacturing and services surveys will provide another snapshot of economic activity and could influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.
Stronger-than-expected business activity would reinforce confidence in the US economy and support Treasury yields, potentially lifting USD/JPY further. On the other hand, weaker PMI readings could revive speculation that the Fed may begin easing policy sooner than expected, limiting further gains in the pair.
USD/JPY Outlook The near-term USD/JPY outlook will depend on whether Japan’s inflation data strengthens expectations for another Bank of Japan policy adjustment and whether geopolitical tensions in the Middle East begin to ease.
For now, the combination of higher US interest rates, resilient dollar demand and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict continues to favour the greenback. Unless Japan’s CPI significantly surprises to the upside or global risk sentiment improves, USD/JPY is likely to remain supported near multi-decade highs.
Why is USD/JPY trading near a multi-decade high?
USD/JPY remains near a multi-decade high because US interest rates are significantly higher than Japan’s, encouraging investors to favour the US dollar over the Japanese yen.
How will Japan’s CPI affect USD/JPY?
Japan’s inflation report could influence expectations for future Bank of Japan interest rate decisions. Higher inflation may strengthen the yen if investors expect additional policy tightening, while weaker inflation could keep USD/JPY elevated.
Why does the US-Iran conflict affect USD/JPY?
The conflict has increased demand for safe-haven assets and pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations that US interest rates could remain elevated. Those factors have supported the US dollar and helped keep USD/JPY near its recent highs.
GBP/USD fell to 1.3437 on Tuesday as investors assessed the appointment of Andy Burnham as the new Prime Minister of the UK and the outlook for monetary policy.
Burnham succeeded Keir Starmer without a contest, becoming the country’s seventh prime minister in the past decade and the second since the Labour Party returned to power in 2024.
The new head of government reaffirmed his commitment to current fiscal rules but indicated he would consider raising the tax-free personal allowance, which has remained frozen in recent years.
Attention is now turning to the appointment of the Chancellor of the Exchequer. According to media reports, Shabana Mahmood is considered the leading candidate.
Additional pressure on the pound is coming from elevated oil prices, which are increasing inflationary risks and reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is moving lower towards 1.3380. A wide consolidation range is forming around the 1.3468 level. An upside breakout from this range would open the way for a move towards 1.3520, while a downside breakout would suggest a decline towards 1.3380, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.3222. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3468 level, currently extending down to 1.3414. A move higher towards 1.3455 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3380. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion Sterling has retreated as markets digest the transition of power to Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has reaffirmed fiscal discipline while signalling a possible increase in the tax-free allowance. Investors are now focused on the appointment of the new Chancellor, with Shabana Mahmood reportedly the frontrunner. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices continue to stoke inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will maintain higher interest rates for longer. Technically, the pound appears poised for further downside towards 1.3380, with the broader outlook dependent on upcoming fiscal announcements and the trajectory of global energy prices.
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The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Monday as markets reacted cautiously to Andy Burnham's first speech as UK Prime Minister.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3449, little changed on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.342145 (-0.24%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.141269 (-0.22%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.49831 (+0.06%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) lacked a clear catalyst on Monday, amid a muted reaction to Andy Burnham’s first speech as Prime Minister.
The PM’s address was big on vision but light on policy detail, with Burnham saying he would announce some cost-of-living measures – and how to fund them – on Tuesday.
As a result, the speech left GBP investors with little to go on, leading to subdued movement in the Pound.
Meanwhile, UK economic data was thin on the ground, which also limited Sterling.
The US Dollar (USD) also traded in a relatively narrow range on Monday, with USD initially dipping as markets opened before recouping its losses as the session went on.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East helped the US Dollar find its footing after the initial downside, although markets remained surprisingly resilient.
Although the crisis is intensifying, with the US and Iran continuing to launch attacks at one another, there are still hopes that the peace process can get back on track.
A spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry said on Monday that diplomatic exchanges between Washington and Tehran are ongoing.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Jobs Report in Focus Looking forward, Tuesday kicks off with the UK's latest jobs report.
Markets expect unemployment to have ticked up in the three months to May, rising from 4.9% to 5.0%. However, a forecast increase in employment may help limit Sterling's downside.
GBP investors will also be watching wage growth, with stronger earnings potentially providing additional support for the Pound.
As for the US Dollar, market risk appetite is likely to remain the main driver. If tensions in the Middle East continue to intensify, a more risk-averse mood could support demand for the safe-haven currency.
Silver continues to balance between its dual role as an industrial metal and so-called refuge asset, and this combination largely explains the lack of a clear trend in recent weeks. Shifting expectations for central bank interest rates can influence the appeal of a non-yielding asset such as silver, while the structural supply deficit remains supported by growing investment demand, offsetting more subdued industrial consumption. These opposing forces help explain why silver prices continue to trade within a broad range, with the market still lacking a decisive catalyst for a sustained directional move.
XAG/USD: Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, silver (XAG/USD) is trading within a structure resembling a triangle. The descending trendline connects the swing highs formed after the peak near $63.000, while the ascending trendline links the series of higher lows from the $56 area. Their convergence coincides with the current high-volume area of the market profile.
Following an attempted breakout, the price is now testing the lower boundary of the profile at $56.643 from below. If this level continues to act as resistance, the next notable support could be found near $54.846.
Should the price move back into the range, the Point of Control (POC) at $58.357 and the upper boundary of the profile at $59.895 could become the primary upside reference levels, followed by the red resistance level at $60.686.
At the same time, vertical volume has not shown the decline in trading activity that is typically associated with a triangle pattern as the range narrows. The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 45, 40, and 42. The moving averages remain red, are pointing higher, and are positioned just below the neutral zone, while the RSI line itself has yet to break out of that neutral range.
Summary The attempted breakout from the triangle has so far failed to gain momentum, with the price returning to the market profile boundary. Meanwhile, the RSI + MAs indicator does not yet confirm either a bullish or bearish scenario. The Federal Reserve meeting on 28–29 July could become the next major catalyst, potentially determining the market’s next directional move.
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.28% higher to near 0.7018 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The antipodean gains as the market sentiment turns risk-on amid hopes that the United States (US) and Iran could stop exchanging attacks soon.
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.07%-0.13%0.05%-0.06%-0.30%-0.37%-0.05%EUR0.07%-0.05%0.09%0.01%-0.20%-0.31%0.02%GBP0.13%0.05%0.17%0.07%-0.15%-0.24%0.08%JPY-0.05%-0.09%-0.17%-0.10%-0.32%-0.43%-0.09%CAD0.06%-0.01%-0.07%0.10%-0.23%-0.31%0.00%AUD0.30%0.20%0.15%0.32%0.23%-0.09%0.26%NZD0.37%0.31%0.24%0.43%0.31%0.09%0.32%CHF0.05%-0.02%-0.08%0.09%-0.01%-0.26%-0.32% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
In the European trade, S&P 500 futures are 0.45% higher to near 7,477, reflecting an upbeat market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.11% lower to near 100.89, signifying diminishing appeal of safe-haven assets.
On Monday, Iran confirmed receiving a proposal from mediators stating a 10-day cessation of strikes to find ways to revive the interim deal.
On the domestic front, investors await the employment data for June, which will be released on Thursday. Australian labor market report is expected to show that the economy created 15K fresh jobs, lower than 40.3K in May. The Unemployment Rate is seen remaining steady at 4.4%.
This week, investors will also focus on the preliminary Australia and the US private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.7016, maintaining a constructive near-term tone as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6975, hinting at emerging underlying demand after the recent recovery. Momentum is supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) advancing to 55.8, suggesting bullish pressure is building without yet reaching overbought territory.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 0.6975, followed by the June 30 low at 0.6865. Looking up, the pair could extend its recovery towards 0.7100.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Employment Change s.a. The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. The statistic is adjusted to remove the influence of seasonal trends. Generally speaking, a rise in Employment Change has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulates economic growth, and is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). A low reading, on the other hand, is seen as bearish.
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The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate edged slightly higher on Monday as softer Canadian inflation weighed on the 'Loonie', although gains for Sterling were capped as investors awaited more policy detail from Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8875, up around 0.1% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.886772 (+0.02%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.604233 (+0.04%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.40557 (+0.25%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) struggled to find momentum on Monday as markets reacted cautiously to Andy Burnham’s first address after taking office as Prime Minister.
Although Burnham outlined the government’s wider priorities, he offered few specific policy details. He said further announcements on measures to address the cost of living, including how these plans would be financed, would follow on Tuesday.
With investors left waiting for more tangible information, Sterling remained largely rangebound during the session.
A lack of significant UK economic data also meant the Pound had little in the way of domestic catalysts to drive movement.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) showed some resilience despite softer-than-forecast inflation figures and falling oil prices.
Canada’s latest consumer price index showed headline inflation cooling from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June, while core inflation unexpectedly eased from 2.2% to 2.1%.
This put some pressure on the Canadian Dollar, although CAD avoided steeper losses.
A slight decline in oil prices also failed to notably dent the currency, with the crude-linked ‘Loonie’ appearing to draw some support from the fact that oil prices remain elevated following their recent rally.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: UK Jobs Data in the Spotlight Looking forward, attention shifts to the UK's latest employment data on Tuesday.
Forecasts suggest unemployment may have risen slightly from 4.9% to 5.0% in the three months to May. However, a predicted rise in employment could help limit downside pressure on the Pound.
Sterling markets will also be focused on the latest wage growth figures. Continued strength in earnings could provide support for the Pound and help it weather any weaker labour market signals.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar may be driven by oil price dynamics. If crude prices continue to climb amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, the commodity-linked ‘Loonie’ could gain ground.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up over 3% to near $58.20 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal surges as the rally in oil prices has halted amid hopes of renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States (US) and Iran after significant military aggression in the past few weeks.
At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 0.45% lower to near $81.90. On Monday, the WTI Oil price corrected after posting a fresh monthly high at $84.42.
Since the onset of the Middle East war, higher oil prices due to energy supply disruption de-anchored global inflation expectations, which intensified fears of interest rate hikes from various central banks. This scenario boded poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Fresh hopes of US-Iran war de-escalation emerged after a spokesperson from Tehran confirmed receiving a proposal of 10-day cessation of strikes with the US from mediators to find ways to revive the interim deal, which fuelled investors’ confidence that negotiations between nations is still on.
On the US interest rate front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is highly anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the policy meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $58.12, but is maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.65. The price action sits under this short-term trend gauge, suggesting rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.94 has recovered from oversold readings but still points to only moderate, corrective upside pressure rather than a sustained bullish move.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $59.65, and a decisive break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and open the door to a more meaningful recovery. On the downside, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees EUR/USD retaining a mild downside bias after slipping below a prior strong support at 1.1405. Intraday losses are expected to be limited to tests of 1.1390, with resistance at 1.1430–1.1445. Over the coming weeks, the pair is now viewed as range-trading between 1.1360 and 1.1465, with 1.1210 the next target if key supports fail.
Euro-Dollar shifts back into range trading"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that EUR “could edge lower,” we held the view that “any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.1405/1.1450 range.” EUR subsequently rose to 1.1449, dipped to a low of 1.1402 before settling at 1.1414 (-0.22%). The price action has resulted in a slight increase in downward momentum, and we continue to expect EUR to edge lower today. This time around, any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.1390. Resistance is at 1.1430; a breach of 1.1445 would suggest that the current mild downward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Thursday (16 Jul, spot at 1.1470), we highlighted that while EUR “is likely to trade with an upside bias, it is too early to determine whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to reach the significant resistance level at 1.1520.” Yesterday, EUR dipped below our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1405 with a low of 1.1402. The breach of our ‘strong support’ level indicates that upward momentum has faded. The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, which is expected to be between 1.1360 and 1.1465."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/JPY edges higher after three days of losses, trading around 185.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is holding above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which reinforces a mildly bullish near-term bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is pressing into the upper end of its recent range while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 suggests constructive but not overstretched momentum. The daily chart technical analysis shows the currency cross is remaining within the ascending triangle, signalling aggressive buying pressure.
The EUR/JPY cross may find the initial resistance at the triangle’s upper boundary around 186.10. A decisive break above the triangle could trigger a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, immediate support sits at the nine-day EMA of 185.46, with additional backing at the 50-day EMA of 185.12 and the lower edge of the ascending triangle near 185.00. A breakdown below the triangle pattern would undermine the bullish setup, exposing the EUR/JPY cross to deeper downside toward the March 16 five-month low of 181.87 and the seven-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%-0.08%0.00%-0.01%-0.16%-0.41%0.00%EUR0.04%-0.04%0.06%0.03%-0.10%-0.37%0.04%GBP0.08%0.04%0.11%0.08%-0.05%-0.33%0.09%JPY0.00%-0.06%-0.11%-0.01%-0.15%-0.43%0.00%CAD0.00%-0.03%-0.08%0.01%-0.14%-0.40%0.01%AUD0.16%0.10%0.05%0.15%0.14%-0.27%0.14%NZD0.41%0.37%0.33%0.43%0.40%0.27%0.41%CHF-0.01%-0.04%-0.09%-0.00%-0.01%-0.14%-0.41% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold – Chart After successfully defending the demand area of $4,021 to $4,000, XAU/USD has punched through the descending trendline on the 2-hour time frame, offering encouragement to bulls. Gold is now trading above both the 50 EMA, which lies at $4,021.55, and 100 EMA, which is at $4,038.93, suggesting near term sentiment has shifted in favor of bulls.
Gold is trading around $4,048, looking for buyers to take hold of the momentum and push prices higher to the resistance level at $4,064.08, ahead of $4,100.37 and $4,139.71. The next support lies at $4,021.28, with downside protection at $4,000.00, $3,990.15 and $3,959.00. The RSI has recovered to about 62, reflecting strengthening momentum without yet entering overbought territory.
Watch for price to get below the equilibrium level first. Wait for price to tap demand zone. Watch for a bullish shift and bullish reversal signs in the demand zone. Wait for all above to play out first then plan the sell entry, stops and targets with confidence. If price continues higher above the range high without tapping below the equilibrium level or demand zone then trade setup is cancelled.
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart July 20 2026
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Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 531.49 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 526.67 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,199.51 per tola from MYR 6,142.99 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
531.49
10 Grams
5,315.17
Tola
6,199.51
Troy Ounce
16,531.32
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,529.09 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,413.91 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 146,136.90 per tola from INR 144,793.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,529.09
10 Grams
125,290.90
Tola
146,136.90
Troy Ounce
389,698.70
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,200.27 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,863.88 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 422,232.90 per tola from PKR 418,309.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,200.27
10 Grams
362,002.70
Tola
422,232.90
Troy Ounce
1,125,954.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 477.72 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 473.25 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,572.05 per tola from AED 5,519.84 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
477.72
10 Grams
4,777.21
Tola
5,572.05
Troy Ounce
14,858.75
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The USD/CAD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and recovers further from its lowest level since June 17, around the 1.4000 psychological mark touched the previous day. Spot prices advanced to a one-week high during the Asian session, though the intraday move up stalls ahead of the 1.4100 mark amid mixed fundamental cues.
The soft Canadian consumer inflation figures on Monday reaffirmed bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will keep interest rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs at least once in 2026 amid concerns about energy-driven inflation. Apart from this, US President Donald Trump's new tariff of 50% on Canadian products undermines the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations and an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). This is seen as another factor supporting the currency pair. That said, elevated oil prices, bolstered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the commodity-linked Loonie and cap gains for the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the highest level since April 2025 favors bullish traders. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 56. Momentum indicators together hint at recovering upside pressure. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 1.4100 confluence before positioning for any further near-term appreciation.
The said handle comprises the 38.2% Fibo. level and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, above which the USD/CAD pair could climb to the 50.0% retracement at 1.4126 and the 61.8% level at 1.4155. On the downside, support emerges at the 23.6% retracement near 1.4059, with a more substantial structural floor at the Fibonacci anchor around 1.4000, where a deeper pullback could pause if selling pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
Canadian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies this week. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.09%0.10%0.40%-0.59%-0.50%0.21%EUR-0.09%0.01%-0.06%0.31%-0.67%-0.60%0.11%GBP-0.09%-0.01%-0.07%0.30%-0.65%-0.61%0.15%JPY-0.10%0.06%0.07%0.39%-0.64%-0.65%0.22%CAD-0.40%-0.31%-0.30%-0.39%-0.94%-1.03%-0.15%AUD0.59%0.67%0.65%0.64%0.94%0.07%0.84%NZD0.50%0.60%0.61%0.65%1.03%-0.07%0.76%CHF-0.21%-0.11%-0.15%-0.22%0.15%-0.84%-0.76% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,037.94 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,955.80 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 93,753.77 per tola from PHP 92,794.92 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,037.94
10 Grams
80,382.97
Tola
93,753.77
Troy Ounce
250,009.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 488.82 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 483.88 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,701.47 per tola from SAR 5,643.84 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
488.82
10 Grams
4,888.16
Tola
5,701.47
Troy Ounce
15,204.13
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) regains positive traction following the previous day's two-way price moves, though it struggles to capitalize on the move and trades below the $4,050 level during the Asian session on Tuesday. Despite a cycle of tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that the US was still open to holding talks with Iran, keeping hopes alive for a potential diplomatic resolution to the conflict. This holds back the US Dollar (USD) bulls from placing fresh bets, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor supporting the commodity.
Investors, however, remain worried about energy-driven inflation, which could force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to stick to its hawkish stance and support the USD. In fact, restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has caused significant disruptions to global oil supplies. Adding to this, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. This should continue to act as a tailwind for crude oil prices, stoking inflation fears and adding to bets of higher-for-longer US interest rates. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in around an 83% probability that the Fed will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, validates the near-term bullish USD undertone and warrants caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the non-yielding Gold.
Meanwhile, the recent escalation of US-Iran tensions could further benefit the Greenback's reserve currency status and contribute to capping the precious metal. In fact, the US military has carried out a 10th consecutive night of attacks on Iran, with the White House saying the strikes will continue until President Donald Trump decides otherwise. Iran, on the other hand, said that it had launched retaliatory strikes at US military bases and allied infrastructure across the Gulf. This raises the risk of a broader regional conflict, which could lend additional support to the USD. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that Gold has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any meaningful appreciation in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases on Tuesday.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold looks to build on 23.6% Fibo. and descending trendline resistance breakout momentumFrom a technical perspective, acceptance above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall from the July swing high and a breakout through a short-term descending trendline favor the XAU/USD bulls. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) both lean positive, suggesting that bearish pressure is softening.
Despite the constructive setup, Gold keeps the near-term bias tilted bearish while below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a series of Fibonacci retracements. Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to confront an initial hurdle around the 38.2% Fibo. level at $4,052.78, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,067.29 and the 50.0% retracement at $4,081.40.
The 61.8% level at $4,110.01 should act as a stronger barrier if bulls attempt a further recovery. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 23.6% retracement and trendline break zone around $4,017, while a more substantial floor emerges at the Fibonacci anchor near $3,960.14, where sellers would likely pause if the current pullback resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating during the Asian session on Tuesday and trading just above the 1.1400 mark, or a four-day low touched the previous day. Market participants seem hesitant and keenly await the highly-anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.
In the meantime, energy-driven inflation fears bolster US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and support the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating US-Iran tensions. This could act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from a four-week high, touched last Wednesday, has run its course.
Spot prices keep a bearish tone following last week's failure near the 1.1480-1.1485 region, which coincides with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero with a negative reading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.95 stays under the midline.
Momentum indicators together suggest waning bullish momentum and reinforce the downside bias while the EUR/USD pair remains capped beneath the 200-period SMA. This, in turn, backs the case for an eventual break below the 1.1400 round figure and a further decline towards retesting the year-to-date low, around the 1.1325 region, touched on June 24.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period SMA around 1.1480. A sustained move above this level is needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more constructive outlook. Nevertheless, the sub-50 RSI and negative MACD suggest that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair remains to the downside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator ECB Press Conference Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy decision, the ECB President gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. The president’s comments may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If the president adopts a hawkish tone it is considered bullish for the EUR, whereas if the tone is dovish the result is usually bearish for the Euro.
British Pound struggles as traders evaluate BoE policy, UK political developmentsGBP/USD steadies after three days of losses, trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. After recently surging toward two-month highs near 1.3550, the pair has moderated as foreign exchange traders evaluate shifting monetary policies between the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) alongside political developments in the United Kingdom (UK).
From a macroeconomic perspective, central bank policy divergence remains the central pillar steering the exchange rate. While market participants anticipate eventual rate adjustments on both sides of the Atlantic, subtle differences in inflation stickiness and labor market strength determine relative yield appeal. Read more...
British Pound Sterling greets a new Prime Minister with a three-day slideGBP/USD trades down around 0.17% on Monday and is on track for a third consecutive daily decline, fading from short of 1.3500 in the London morning to a New York probe just above the 1.3400 handle before steadying between the two. The slide unwinds the last of the mid-July rebound's momentum and confirms that Cable's recovery off the summer base has run out of road well before the levels that matter.
The rejection zone tells the larger story, because 1.3550 has graduated from a line in the sand into a hard wall: it capped the pair in mid-June, repelled last week's push, and now marks the floor of a full-depth resistance zone running up to the next ceiling at 1.3650. With the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index pushing 90, the market picked the top of an overbought bounce to hand Downing Street to a new tenant. Read more...
British Pound slips as Burnham fiscal pledge fails to lift SterlingThe Pound Sterling reverses course and turns negative on the day as Andy Burnham is named the new Prime Minister and reassures that he will stick to the fiscal rules set by the former Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who just resigned. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3425, after hitting a daily high of 1.3481.
Sentiment turned upbeat, even though hostilities in the Middle East continued. Attacks between the US and Iran keep tensions high, keeping investors worried about a disruption in Oil supply, which the US Crude Oil benchmark, WTI so far up 21% in the month. This reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could increase rates by 25 basis points toward the end of the year. Read more...
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.85 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) due to the interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, fears of possible intervention from Japanese authorities might cap the upside for the cross.
After delivering three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) hikes earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% at its June policy meeting.
Economists warned that rising oil and fuel prices could cement a fourth interest rate rise this year if US President Donald Trump’s renewed conflict with Iran is not resolved within a week.
Traders have raised their bets on an RBA rate hike since airstrikes resumed last week, now pricing in nearly a 23% odds of a hike in August and more than a 50% chance by December, according to the Guardian.
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle band, keeping the broader uptrend intact. Price is advancing toward the Bollinger upper band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 60 suggests firm but not overstretched upside momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the Bollinger Bands’ upper band at 114.10. The next hurdle is located at the May 13 high of 114.74, en route to the 115.00 psychological level.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the July 20 low of 113.10. The next contention level to watch is the 100-day SMA at 112.75, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 112.55, with a deeper cushion coming in at the lower band near 111.05 should a corrective pullback develop.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The latest US tariffs on Canadian goods may be relatively modest in size, but the market reaction suggests investors are focusing on something bigger than the immediate trade impact. USD/CAD advanced after US President Donald Trump signed three proclamations imposing 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian exports, including alcohol, dairy products, motor vehicles, cement, hockey equipment and electrical machinery. The measures will take effect in roughly 30 days and, notably, apply regardless of compliance with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, known as CUSMA in Canada), while exempting energy, potash, critical minerals and products already subject to Section 232 duties.
The significance lies less in the sectors affected than in what the latest move says about US trade policy. Since early 2025, Washington has repeatedly expanded tariffs on Canadian goods using different legal authorities rather than relying on the framework established by USMCA. Each new measure reinforces the perception that the agreement is providing less practical protection against unilateral trade actions. As a result, markets are increasingly treating US-Canada trade friction as a structural issue rather than a series of isolated disputes, adding another headwind to Canada’s economic outlook just as uncertainty surrounding the formal USMCA review continues to build.
Canada’s response has so far stopped short of matching Washington’s escalation. Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated his preference for negotiations and emphasized strengthening Canada’s domestic economy, while Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Ottawa to retaliate “tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar.” Whether the federal government adopts a more confrontational stance will likely determine how far trade tensions escalate. For now, the new tariffs represent another obstacle for the Canadian Dollar, particularly if investors begin pricing a more prolonged drag on growth.
Technically, USD/CAD is also sending a constructive signal for Dollar bulls. The rebound from 1.4002 followed successful tests of both 55 D EMA (now at 1.4002) and 1.3965 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954), suggesting the decline from 1.4247 was corrective rather than the start of a broader reversal. Firm break above 1.4115 minor resistance would strengthen the case that the broader uptrend from the 2026 low at 1.3480 is resuming, bringing another challenge of the 1.4247 high into view.
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AUD/USD started a steady increase above 0.6950 and 0.6975. A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 0.6950 on the 4-hour chart. Gold prices declined and might dip below $3,950. USD/JPY could gain bullish momentum if it settles above 162.70. AUD/USD Technical Analysis The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase from 0.6865 against the US Dollar. AUD/USD climbed above 0.6900 and 0.6950 to enter a positive zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared many hurdles near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7088 swing high to the 0.6865 low. The pair also settled above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7035. The next major resistance might be 0.7050. A close above 0.7050 could start a steady increase.
In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 0.7120. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 0.7200. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 0.6965.
The first major support could be near 0.6950. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6950. A downside break and close below 0.6950 might send the pair toward 0.6910. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 0.6865.
Looking at Gold, the bears remained in action below $4,150, and they might even target a move below $3,950.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US ADP Employment Change 4-week Average – Forecast 18K, versus 19.75K previous.
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Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the third straight day and climbs back above the $57.00 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. The white metal, however, remains below the overnight swing high, with bulls awaiting a breakout through a short-term descending trend-line hurdle before positioning for further gains.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is marginally positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 hints at stabilizing momentum. Hence, a sustained move beyond the aforementioned barrier should pave the way for additional gains. The XAG/USD might then climb to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the monthly top near $58.06, en route to the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, just ahead of the $59.00 round figure.
The latter nears the 50% retracement level and acceptance above this would be needed to ease the current bearish bias, which should open the way to higher retracement objectives. However, a failed attempt to conquer this confluence would suggest that rallies remain vulnerable while that barrier stays overhead. Meanwhile, higher barriers are seen at the 61.8% level at $60.04 and the 78.6% retracement at $61.46.
On the downside, immediate support comes from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $56.83, and a drop back below this pivot would likely reassert selling pressure and expose the structural floor near $54.84.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The USD/INR has inched higher at the start of the new week, nearing two-month lows as oil prices hit $88 per barrel on the Brent benchmark. Current Setup and Live Chart The balance of risks for the USD/INR as we head into the new week currently favors the greenback, as the rupee nears two-month lows. Treasury yields remain resiliently higher amid strong US economic sentiment. This is despite the cooling of inflation in June. Markets have paid little attention to last week’s Consumer and Producer Price Indices, as they reflected the inflationary scenario while the US-Iran truce lasted. The renewal of hostilities last week is expected to reinforce inflationary expectations for July, which is why the markets are pricing in this scenario against the CPI and PPI data releases for August.
Furthermore, geopolitical uncertainty continues, reinforcing safe-haven demand for the greenback, even as rising crude oil prices pile pressure on the Indian rupee. Oil prices inched higher at the start of the week, rising to $88 per barrel at the start of the New York session this Monday.
India’s exposure to higher energy prices, due to its status as the third-largest net crude importer, continues to put the rupee end of the USD/INR pairing on the defensive. The current market sentiment prices in a higher energy risk premium and rising demand for US dollars from Indian refiners. As before, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues to use various measures to smooth excessive volatility and prevent outsized moves, even as USD/INR inches higher.
USD/INR Macro Drivers 1) Higher Oil Prices
Oil prices are gradually inching towards the $90 mark, which poses a remarkable challenge for the import-dependent Indian economy and the rupee by extension. Higher oil prices raise the crude oil import bill, create additional demand for the US Dollar (to pay for the product, which is priced in US Dollars on the international market), and also put additional current account pressure on the Indian economy. Higher energy prices also produce imported inflation, since virtually every industry runs on fossil fuels that are derived from crude oil. Higher oil prices automatically increase the price of energy derivatives on which these sectors run. Higher oil prices remain the strongest macro driver of the USD/INR.
2) Strong US Dollar Sentiment
Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, as markets shift from capital appreciation to capital preservation, as well as the risk of imported inflationary pressures, keeps sentiment for the US Dollar strong. The situation drives US Treasury yields higher in anticipation of a more hawkish Fed policy to keep inflation under check. US economic data point to a resilient economy. As long as the sentiment on the US Dollar remains strong and higher energy prices weaken sentiment on the rupee, the USD/INR will stay supported.
3) RBI Intervention
The rupee’s value is also determined not just by forces of demand and supply, but by the policy measures of the Reserve Bank of India under the managed float system. The RBI continues to maintain and deploy a substantial foreign exchange reserve arsenal to defend the rupee to prevent any outsized moves. The RBI is reported to have used $100 billion in its interventionist moves over the course of the first phase of the US-Iran war. Policy actions include sales of US Dollars to handle rising demand, liquidity management, and forward market operations. These measures are meant to prevent disorderly market moves, but do not produce price reversals. Any retracements are usually dip-buying opportunities as long as the current situation persists.
Price Catalysts for the USD/INR 1) US Economic data and Treasury yields: The USD/INR’s direction is directly proportional to the direction of US Treasury yields and US economic data. Higher bond yields and stronger-than-expected US economic data will lead to a higher push on the USD/INR due to a reinforcement of US Dollar demand and capital flows into USD-denominated assets.
2) Brent crude prices: Oil price direction is also directly proportional to the USD/INR’s direction, as higher prices tend to cause a weakening of the rupee. Brent crude’s price remains the primary external price catalyst for the Indian rupee.
3) Foreign portfolio investment: The Indian stock and bond markets host a large percentage of their holdings from foreign portfolio investments. Whenever there are capital inflows, these must be converted from foreign currency such as USD into the local currency for deployment into the Indian markets. When there are net outflows, the investments must be liquidated and reconverted into foreign currency for exit into other destinations. A risk-off scenario driven by higher oil prices causes net capital outflows (rupee-negative). In comparison, net capital inflows that typically occur when the market is risk-on (lower oil prices) are rupee-supportive.
USD/INR Forecast Scenarios Base case: the bias favors a bullish pairing, as higher oil prices, safe-haven demand and stronger sentiment around the US economy and the US Dollar continue to provide structural support for the pair.
Bull case: if oil prices approach $100 a barrel (or higher), this will drive US bond yields higher and create a more risk-averse market situation. This will accelerate dollar demand and rupee weakness as India will have to battle with a much higher USD demand and a higher import bill. We will also see net capital outflows from foreign portfolio funds. In this scenario, USD/INR could mount a fresh challenge to hit new highs.
Bear case: if there is a geopolitical de-escalation, the oil risk premium dissipates. Lower oil prices mean that the risk of imported inflation is reduced. India will have a reprieve from its import bill status, and a risk-on market means foreign portfolio funds will re-enter Indian markets, all of which improve sentiment on the rupee and allow the USD/INR to retrace towards recent lows in a pullback move.
USD/INR Technical Outlook The price has bounced off the 95.24 support after the 10 July pinbar candle pullback was rejected by the bulls off that support line. This unlocked the current advance move that is well on its way to reclaim the 96.99 all-time high, which now serves as the next resistance.
A break of this resistance puts the pair on the path to the 27% Fibonacci extension of the 8 April – 20 May upswing at 98.32 as the next upside barrier. 99.87 is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension and comes into the picture if the bulls uncap 98.23.
Fig 1: USD/INR daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 20 July 2026) Conversely, a weakening of the current advance and subsequent breakdown of the 96.99 support allows for a retracement towards the 95.24 support level and site of the 10 July low. Below this, additional support is seen at 94.04, the site of the 7 May low and the 18 June/25 June double bottom pattern. This move is dependent on the bears taking out the dynamic support provided by the ascending trendline that has connected the price dips since 19 December 2025.
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed from the resistance level 1.1465 (top of earlier wave a) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1465 (also strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger band) started the active impulse wave iii.
Given the clear daily downtrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.1370 (low of earlier wave b).
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GBP/CAD has spent the past few weeks tracing out a clean five-wave rally on the 1-hour chart, and now the pair looks to be working through the correction that typically follows a completed impulse. Here’s a breakdown of the structure and what it could mean for the path ahead.
The Rally: A Textbook Five-Wave Advance
Starting from the June 22 low near 1.863, GBP/CAD pushed higher in a sequence that fits the classic five-wave impulse pattern:
Wave (i) kicked off the advance, followed by a shallow wave (ii) pullback that held well above the starting point. Wave (iii) was the strongest leg of the move, itself breaking down into a smaller five waves (i–v) as the pair accelerated toward the 1.895–1.900 area. Wave (iv) brought a brief, contained dip before buyers stepped back in. Wave (v) carried price to the cycle high just above 1.905, completing the five-wave structure and marking the top of the rally. That high represents the point where the bullish impulse likely finished, opening the door for a corrective pullback.
The Correction: An A-B-C (ZigZag) Pattern Taking Shape
What is an A-B-C (ZigZag) Pattern?
The image below illustrates an A‑B‑C Zigzag structure, similar to the one highlighted on the GBPCAD chart above.
A Zigzag structure in Elliott Wave Theory is a sharp three‑wave corrective pattern labelled A‑B‑C, with a distinct 5‑3‑5 subdivision. It represents a counter‑trend move and is one of the most common corrective formations.
Wave A → 5 sub‑waves (impulsive decline or rise depending on trend). Wave B → 3 sub‑waves (a smaller counter‑move). Wave C → 5 sub‑waves (another impulsive move, usually equal to or longer than Wave A). Trading Insights
Zigzags often signal continuation after correction, making them useful for identifying re‑entry points in the direction of the larger trend. Traders watch for Blue Box zones (high‑probability reversal areas) to align entries with the end of Wave C. Recognizing zigzags helps avoid mistaking them for trend reversals—they are corrective pauses, not new dominant trends. Now that we understand what a Zigzag correction is, we can clearly connect that concept to the corrective structure shown in the GBPCAD chart above.
Since topping out, GBP/CAD has been unwinding in a standard three-wave (A-B-C) correction:
Wave (a) dropped sharply off the highs, retracing a large chunk of the prior advance. Wave (b) brought a corrective bounce back up toward the 1.903 area — a classic “relief rally” that retraces part of wave (a) without exceeding the prior high. Wave (c) is now underway, pressing the pair back down toward the 1.884–1.876 zone, with a key Fibonacci extension level sitting around 1.876. As of the most recent update, price is trading around 1.884, right in the area where wave (c) is expected to find support and complete the pullback.
What Comes Next
Based on this count, the correction is viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a setup to sell. The expectation is for GBP/CAD to carve out a smaller, choppy dip-and-recovery pattern near current levels before turning back higher, targeting a resumption of the broader uptrend. A key support/invalidation zone sits down near 1.863 — a break below that level would call the entire bullish wave count into question.
The Final Leg Down Completed as Expected
Zooming into the internal structure of wave ((c)), price carved out a clean five-wave decline (labeled (i) through (v)) that bottomed right at the extreme of the expected support zone, just above 1.880. That low landed almost exactly on the invalidation level near 1.88016, which is precisely the kind of reaction technicians look for — a move that reaches into a well-defined support area, taps it, and reverses rather than breaking cleanly through it.
That low marks the completion of the entire corrective sequence from the 1.905 high: wave ((a)) down, wave ((b)) bounce back toward 1.903, and wave ((c)) down into the 1.880 extreme.
A Sharp, Decisive Reaction
What stands out most on this update is the strength of the reaction off that low. Rather than a slow, grinding recovery, GBP/CAD snapped back aggressively, rallying from the 1.880 extreme up through 1.890 and on toward the 1.900–1.902 area in a single strong push — essentially retracing the entire wave ((c)) decline in short order. That kind of sharp, impulsive reaction off a support extreme is typically read as a sign that the corrective phase has genuinely finished and that sellers were overwhelmed at the low.
Why the Extreme Mattered
This is a good example of why the 1.876–1.884 zone was flagged as the key area to watch in the first place. It wasn’t just a round-number guess — it lined up with:
The Fibonacci extension target near 1.876 The internal five-wave count of wave ((c)) reaching a natural completion point A structural invalidation level just below 1.880 that, as long as it held, kept the broader bullish wave count intact Price respected that confluence, printed the low, and turned — which is exactly the kind of reaction that gives a wave count credibility.
Bottom Line
GBP/CAD did exactly what the prior wave count anticipated: it pushed into the extreme of the support zone, completed a five-wave decline into that area, and reacted sharply higher — a textbook reaction at the extreme that reinforces the case for a resumption of the uptrend.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.7917 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7948 and 6.7706 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Headline inflation beats, underlying pressures easing Tradables prices undershoot RBNZ's forecast September RBNZ hike likely, longer-term pricing looks excessive NZD/USD bulls retain technical advantage above support AUD/NZD breakdown keeps sellers firmly in control A beat, but with important caveats New Zealand consumer prices rose 1.5% in the June quarter, lifting the annual inflation rate to 4.1%. While that was above the 4.0% increase expected by economists, it fell just short of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 4.2% forecast released in May.
That suggests inflation remains uncomfortably high and is likely to keep the RBNZ on course to tighten policy further. However, the underlying details were more encouraging, with the broadest measure of core inflation easing further and domestic price pressures evolving broadly as the central bank had anticipated.
The composition of the report was arguably more important than the headline. While annual inflation accelerated, much of the increase reflected higher tradeable prices, which are influenced by developments offshore rather than domestic demand.
Source: FOREX.com, RBNZ, StatsNZ
Tradeable inflation accelerated to 4.9% over the year, driven largely by a 27.5% jump in petrol prices and a 71.0% surge in other vehicle fuels and lubricants. However, that was well below the RBNZ's 5.6% forecast, explaining why headline inflation also undershot the central bank's expectations.
By contrast, non-tradeable inflation, which is viewed as a better gauge of domestically generated price pressures, eased to 3.4% and matched the RBNZ's forecast. Electricity and local authority rates provided the largest upward pressure, while lower real estate services prices helped offset some of the increase.
The broadest measure of underlying inflation, CPI excluding the food group, household energy subgroup and vehicle fuels, also continued to ease, slipping to 2.5% from 2.6%. While it remains in the upper half of the RBNZ's 1–3% target band, the continued moderation suggests underlying inflation pressures are still moving in the right direction rather than becoming more entrenched.
Traders should now watch the release of the RBNZ's Sectoral Factor Model at 3pm Wellington time. The measure, which strips out temporary price movements to provide another gauge of underlying inflation, printed at 2.7% in the March quarter and could influence moves in New Zealand financial markets should it deliver a meaningful surprise.
What it means for the RBNZ
Source: Bloomberg
When all said and done, today's report is unlikely to materially alter the RBNZ's near-term thinking. Inflation remains above target and the central bank has already adopted an explicit tightening bias. Another 25 basis point increase in September still looks very likely and is close to fully priced, with the risk of a second move by October also deemed slightly more likely than not ahead of November's general election.
Further out, though, market pricing looks far too punchy. Overnight index swaps continue to imply close to five additional quarter-point increases by May next year, taking the OCR to around 3.75%.
That profile looks too aggressive given the broader economic backdrop. While inflation remains high, underlying price pressures continue to ease and there is still ample slack in the labour market, with little evidence that wage growth is accelerating in a way that would warrant taking policy deep into restrictive territory.
The next major test for that view will come on 13 August, when the RBNZ releases its latest Survey of Expectations. Of particular interest will be the two-year inflation expectations measure, which climbed to 2.53% in May from 2.37% previously.
Another meaningful acceleration would strengthen the case for additional tightening, potentially even a 50 basis point move, which can't be ruled out given some of the hawkish rhetoric from external members of the Monetary Policy Committee. But if inflation expectations fail to accelerate again, it would cast doubt on the degree of tightening currently priced into the OIS curve.
At face value, today's report may be interpreted as hawkish given headline inflation exceeded economists' forecasts. I'm not convinced that's the right read. The underlying detail tells a different story, particularly with the broadest measure of core inflation continuing to ease and tradables inflation coming in well below the RBNZ's own forecast.
That's just one of several factors to consider when assessing directional risk for the Kiwi dollar. While domestic rates remain an important driver, recent price action has also become increasingly sensitive to broader risk appetite and changes in US interest rate expectations. Starting with NZD/USD, here's how the technical picture stacks up.
The battleground for Kiwi bulls
Source: TradingView
The RBNZ's hawkish tilt has helped support NZD/USD over recent weeks, allowing the pair to reclaim a cluster of key medium and long-term moving averages.
For now, though, it's a game of ping-pong. Buyers continue to emerge on dips towards the 100-day moving average, while rallies are being capped ahead of resistance at 0.5860. That's the initial range to watch.
The oscillators continue to favour the bulls. RSI (14) remains comfortably above the neutral 50 level at 63, while MACD has crossed above its signal line and remains in positive territory.
Should the pair break decisively above 0.5860, the next upside level to watch is 0.5920, an area that repeatedly acted as both support and resistance during April, May and June. Above that, attention shifts to 0.5992, the double top established earlier this year.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100, 200 and 50-day moving averages, along with horizontal support at 0.5796, another level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent weeks. A break beneath the latter could open the door for a retracement towards 0.5747, with 0.5724 and the uptrend from the June lows the next levels to watch.
Breakdown keeps bears in control
Source: TradingView
As flagged earlier this month, AUD/NZD has broken below the uptrend from the June 2025 lows, with the pair also slipping beneath the 50 and 100-day moving averages. Along the way, it took out support at 1.2053 and 1.2000 before finding buyers at 1.1950.
For now, the pair is stuck in a narrow range between 1.2000 and 1.1950. We did see a bullish engulfing candle print on Monday following renewed upside in energy prices as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. However, that has not generated follow-through buying, with rallies continuing to stall ahead of 1.2000.
The message from the oscillators remains bearish. RSI (14) continues to set lower highs and sits well below the neutral 50 level at 33. That bearish message is being reinforced by MACD, which remains below its signal line and in negative territory.
Selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy. Should the pair break decisively beneath 1.1950, there is little in the way of technical support until the 200-day moving average at 1.1835, followed by 1.1797, former resistance before February's upside breakout.
Should the pair reclaim 1.2000, the next upside levels to watch are 1.2053, followed by the confluence of the 100-day moving average and resistance at 1.2115. For now, though, selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy.
From a fundamental perspective, with New Zealand's inflation report now out of the way, attention will quickly shift to Australia's labour force report on Thursday. Alongside broader risk sentiment, the release is likely to be influential on markets' assessment of the directional risks for the RBA cash rate moving forward.
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to near $4,000 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends its downside as escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran pushed oil prices up, intensifying inflation concerns.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that US forces struck Iranian targets after US President Donald Trump vowed Tehran “will pay” for killing three US soldiers. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that the US military began a new wave of strikes on Monday, the 10th straight day of attacks. “Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over!” said Trump.
Concerns about an escalation in Middle East hostilities could push crude oil prices up and could prompt central banks to hold rates at elevated levels for longer, weighing on gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
“Gold remains negatively correlated to oil prices, with market participants closely tracking developments in the Middle East,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
Traders continue to assess the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hiking interest rates to contain inflation. Swap traders see low odds of the Fed raising rates at its next meeting in July after softer US inflation data, although traders have fully priced in at least one hike by the end of the year.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on Friday joined a growing chorus of officials voicing concern over inflation, saying that interest rates may need to rise to beat back persistent inflation.
Hammack flags broad-based inflation pressures, reinforcing hawkish Fed toneFed’s Hammack delivers a more hawkish message relative to the historical average, with the FXS Speechtracker score rising to 7.2/10 versus a 6.6/10 baseline. The emphasis on businesses calling for action to curb inflation and consumers facing a “growing sense of despair,” alongside broad-based price pressures from energy, supply chains, insurance, and AI data centers, underscores a clear focus on persistent inflation risks even as growth and consumer spending remain solid. The repeated characterization of “persistently high inflation” as the bigger concern signals a bias toward tighter policy or at least a higher-for-longer stance for the Dollar.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index climbed by 2.06 points to 128.64, reinforcing a firmly hawkish setting well above the neutral 100 mark. This move, aligned with the stronger FXS Speechtracker reading, suggests markets should lean toward expecting sustained restrictive policy, a supportive backdrop for the Dollar against the Euro and Yen.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Pound Sterling registers losses against the Japanese Yen for the third consecutive trading day, doon 0.15% as traders digest the first speech of new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who is naming the first members of his cabinet. The GBP/JPY trades at 218.13 after reaching a daily high of 218.84.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookLast week, the GBP/JPY bounced off a daily low on July 15 and hit a new yearly high of 219.61, opening the door to a consolidation as bullish momentum faded.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers remain in charge, as the index, after briefly dipping, is poised to resume its upward trajectory, an indication that further upside is in the cards.
For a bullish continuation, the GBP/JPY must reclaim 219.00. A breach of the latter exposes the 219.50 area, ahead of 220.00. On further strength, the next resistance would be the psychological 221.00.
Downwards, the first support is the July 9 high at 218.01. If sellers clear the latter, the 217.00 is up next, followed by a move towards April’s 30 daily high-turned-support at 216.60. Once surpassed, the next area of interest for GBP/JPY would be the July 2 high, now turned support, at 216.06.
GBP/JPY Price Chart — Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
