ING’s commodities team notes Gold and Silver have extended gains on dip-buying and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. They highlight Gold trading above $4,000/oz and Silver near $60/oz, supported by safe-haven flows and stronger industrial metals sentiment. ING expects Gold to stay sensitive to energy markets and US monetary policy, with Silver potentially outperforming if industrial strength persists.
Precious metals lifted by dip-buying"Gold and silver extended gains, supported by bargain hunting after recent weakness and investors continuing to assess geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The move came despite lingering concerns that higher energy prices could add to inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's path towards interest rate cuts."
"Gold climbed back above the $4,000/oz level, while silver outperformed, trading close to $60/oz. Silver’s performance reflects not only its safe-haven appeal but also support from improving sentiment across the industrial metals complex, particularly copper."
"The rebound appears driven more by fresh buying interest following a period of consolidation rather than a material shift in the geopolitical or macroeconomic backdrop. While tensions in the Middle East remain supportive for precious metals, markets are weighing softer US economic data against the inflationary risks from higher energy costs."
"Gold is likely to remain sensitive to developments in energy markets and expectations for US monetary policy. Silver could continue to outperform if strength in industrial metals persists alongside safe-haven demand."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is maintaining the medium-term uptrend as the price managed to defend the demand zone around 100.50 and the rising trendline on the daily timeframe. Currently, it is seen changing hands near the 101.14 area above the 50-EMA (100.35) and the 100-EMA (99.78) on the daily chart, and the bulls continue to be in control.
Price faced some initial resistance around the 101.65 level with resistance at 102.30, and then 103.02. On the downside, support is seen near 100.50, then 99.53, and then 98.76. The RSI recovered to the 57 level, indicating that the bullish trend continues.
Technically, the trendline support area witnessed its retest and price bounced off it, reinforcing the bullish trend. The price is expected to continue to the upside as long as the 100.50 level continues to hold the support. The bears are likely to lose control of the market and buyers will move prices towards 101.65 and then 102.30, but the support at the 100.50 level is critical and any failure will open up the downside for the price and it will fall towards 99.50.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bears Test Channel Support Below Key Moving Averages
Gold – Chart Gold managed to break above triangle resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating a recovery for buyers over the short-term. XAU/USD now sits around the $4,127 level above the 50-EMA (at $4,049) and 100-EMA (at $4,076) following a strong impulsive move higher from the $3,965 support level. With the breakout, the recent bearish consolidation structure has been invalidated.
On the upside, key resistance lies in the $4,140 level, followed by the $4,200 round figure and then the $4,278 price level. Support is now expected near the $4,080 to $4,050 region, where the breakout took place, followed by the $4,040 level and then the $3,965 zone. The RSI has moved well above 70, implying strong bullish momentum in the market. This also suggests the market can consolidate for some time after the sharp price increase.
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 487.29 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 481.47 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,683.66 per tola from AED 5,615.73 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
487.29
10 Grams
4,872.91
Tola
5,683.66
Troy Ounce
15,156.44
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,196.87 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,098.74 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 95,600.64 per tola from PHP 94,462.05 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,196.87
10 Grams
81,964.21
Tola
95,600.64
Troy Ounce
254,948.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 498.23 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 492.14 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,811.27 per tola from SAR 5,740.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
498.23
10 Grams
4,982.24
Tola
5,811.27
Troy Ounce
15,496.74
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 543.61 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 536.92 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,340.43 per tola from MYR 6,262.55 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
543.61
10 Grams
5,435.99
Tola
6,340.43
Troy Ounce
16,907.82
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,778.83 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,628.91 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 149,049.40 per tola from INR 147,301.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,778.83
10 Grams
127,788.00
Tola
149,049.40
Troy Ounce
397,476.90
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,918.19 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 36,474.75 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 430,606.60 per tola from PKR 425,434.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,918.19
10 Grams
369,181.90
Tola
430,606.60
Troy Ounce
1,148,285.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
British Pound bounces off one-week low vs USD amid Iran diplomacy hopes, ahead of UK CPIThe GBP/USD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing streak to the 1.3360 area, or a one-week low, touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through buying and trade below the 1.3400 mark, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from an over two-month high has run its course.
The US Dollar (USD) pauses following a four-day rally to a one-week high amid hopes that US-Iran diplomacy could ease energy prices and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending support to the GBP/USD pair. However, the geopolitical risk remains in play amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. Read more...
British Pound Sterling gets a decent jobs report and sells off anywayThe British Pound received a labour market report on Tuesday that beat consensus on nearly every line, and sold off anyway. Sterling slid from a London morning high just above 1.3450 to a New York low just above 1.3350, knifing through the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages that sit converged just below 1.3400. GBP/USD trades near 1.3380 late in the session, the weakest of the majors on the day, on track for a fourth consecutive daily decline, and holding its first session beneath both long-term averages since the mid-July rebound began. More than a third of that rebound off the summer base near the 1.3150 area is already gone.
On the surface, Tuesday's labour market data argued for a Pound bid rather than a fourth day of selling. Employment rose 147K in the three months to May against 100K prior, the claimant count climbed just 6.7K in June against a 28.3K consensus, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% when the market expected 5%. The blemish sat in the pay figures, where average earnings including bonuses slowed to 4.3% against a 4.5% consensus, extending the cooling trend the Bank of England has spent months waiting for. Read more...
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA support near 1.3400GBP/USD remains weaker for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.3430 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a prevailing bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel.
The GBP/USD pair is holding a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of shorter and longer EMAs below price suggests an underpinning uptrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 55 points to steady, rather than overstretched, positive momentum. Read more...
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and extends its sideways consolidative price move around the 0.7000 psychological mark on Wednesday.
The US Dollar (USD) preserves its recent strong gains registered over the past four days amid escalating US-Iran tensions and expectations that energy-driven inflation would force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike rates in 2026. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.
However, speculations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will tighten policy further might continue to lend some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets on the AUD/USD pair and opt to wait for the Australian June employment data on Thursday.
From a technical perspective, spot prices, so far, have been struggling to make it through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. Hence, acceptance above the said barrier is needed to back the case for an extension of the AUD/USD pair's recent bounce from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Meanwhile, momentum indicators remain supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering just above the neutral 50 area and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showing a positive reading. This hints at sustained buying interest as long as the AUD/USD pair stays supported on dips.
In the meantime, nearby support below the current area is seen around the 23.6% retracement at 0.6955, with the 200-day SMA at 0.6894 protecting any further pullback ahead of the broader structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor at 0.6857.
On the topside, strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.7015 should allow the AUD/USD pair to accelerate the positive move towards the 50.0% level at 0.7064 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7113. The next relevant resistances are aligned at 0.7182 and 0.7271, subsequent Fibonacci barriers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%0.52%0.51%0.64%-0.48%0.15%0.55%EUR-0.18%0.35%0.28%0.46%-0.65%-0.04%0.36%GBP-0.52%-0.35%-0.09%0.11%-1.00%-0.38%0.06%JPY-0.51%-0.28%0.09%0.21%-0.94%-0.42%0.14%CAD-0.64%-0.46%-0.11%-0.21%-1.07%-0.63%-0.05%AUD0.48%0.65%1.00%0.94%1.07%0.62%1.04%NZD-0.15%0.04%0.38%0.42%0.63%-0.62%0.44%CHF-0.55%-0.36%-0.06%-0.14%0.05%-1.04%-0.44% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold’s rally this week may prove to be one of the more important developments across financial markets—not simply because prices have reclaimed the $4,100 level, but because the move appears to contradict the macro forces that have governed precious metals for much of the second quarter. Silver has joined the advance, climbing back toward $60, even as Brent crude trades above $92, US Treasury yields continue rising and markets price in an more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Those are precisely the conditions that had repeatedly weighed on precious metals since the US-Iran conflict erupted earlier this year. Under that framework, higher oil prices fed inflation expectations, pushing Treasury yields and Fed tightening expectations higher. As non-yielding assets, gold and silver consistently lost ground as investors favored interest-bearing alternatives. That relationship drove silver below $55 and kept gold under sustained pressure despite periodic bursts of geopolitical demand.
The latest price action therefore raises an important question: Is the market beginning to price geopolitical risks differently?
Why is Gold no longer behaving as expected? The current market backdrop would ordinarily be hostile for precious metals. Brent crude has extended its rally above $92, increasing concerns that higher energy prices could feed another round of inflation. Reflecting those concerns, markets now price around a 71% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, up from roughly 58% just a week ago, while the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.63%.
Viewed through the lens that dominated the second quarter, each of those developments should have been bearish for gold. Higher oil implies stickier inflation. Stickier inflation points to tighter monetary policy. Higher policy expectations lift Treasury yields and typically strengthen Dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Yet instead of weakening, both gold and silver have accelerated higher. The fact that all of these bearish inputs are moving in the same direction while precious metals continue rallying suggests investors may be assigning less weight to interest-rate dynamics than they did only a few weeks ago.
Is the market shifting from an inflation story to a stagflation story? One possible explanation is that investors are beginning to reinterpret the oil shock.
Earlier in the conflict, higher crude prices were primarily viewed as an inflation problem. The market’s focus was on how rising energy costs would delay Fed easing or even require further tightening, making higher yields the dominant driver of asset prices.
Now, the emphasis may be broadening. Persistently elevated oil prices also increase the risk of slower global growth, weaker corporate profitability and policy mistakes if central banks tighten into an economy already facing supply-side shocks. Under that interpretation, gold regains its appeal not only as an inflation hedge but also as protection against geopolitical escalation and stagflation risks.
If that shift in thinking is indeed underway, it would represent a meaningful change in how markets transmit geopolitical shocks into asset prices.
Why is it still too early to call a regime change? Despite the striking divergence, caution remains warranted.
The relationship between higher oil, higher yields and weaker precious metals persisted for several months. Declaring that framework broken after only a handful of trading sessions would be premature. Markets often experience temporary dislocations before reverting to established trends.
Positioning may also be contributing to the rebound. Both gold and silver endured heavy selling over recent months, leaving room for short covering once fresh geopolitical headlines emerged. Some of the current rally may therefore reflect positioning adjustments rather than a fundamental reassessment of macro risks.
The coming weeks will reveal whether investors continue to favor precious metals even if Treasury yields and Fed tightening expectations remain elevated.
Technical outlook: Is Gold approaching confirmation? Technically, momentum is clearly improving.
Gold’s break above 4,102.95 minor resistance suggests the decline from 4,202.87 likely completed at 3959.42, just ahead of the 3,942.23 low. Further gains are now favored toward 4,202.87, with scope for an extension to the falling 55 D EMA, currently around 4,262.15.
Even so, it is still too early to conclude that a lasting bullish reversal has begun. The current advance could yet prove to be merely the third leg of a corrective pattern from 3,942.23. Initial resistance is expected around 38.2% retracement of 4,889.24 to 3,942.23 at 4,303.98.
That said, the broader technical picture is becoming increasingly constructive. Daily MACD continues to display bullish convergence against price, indicating downside momentum has been fading for some time. A decisive break above 4,303.98, accompanied by sustained trading above the 55 DEMA, would provide much stronger evidence that gold is reversing the broader downtrend from the 5598.38 peak rather than simply staging another counter-trend rally.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 186.20 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.48 suggests constructive but not overbought momentum, reinforcing the scope for further gains as long as price stays above the nearby EMA band.
The daily chart technical analysis shows the currency cross is testing the upper boundary of the ascending triangle around 186.20, suggesting growing bullish momentum and a potential breakout to the upside. A decisive break above the triangle could trigger a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, primary support sits at the nine-day EMA of 185.66, with additional backing at the 50-day EMA of 185.18 and the lower edge of the ascending triangle near 185.10. A sustained break below the triangle pattern would undermine the bullish setup, exposing the EUR/JPY cross to deeper downside toward the five-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the seven-month low of 180.81.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.07%-0.07%-0.03%-0.02%-0.05%-0.06%-0.00%EUR0.07%0.00%0.07%0.05%0.00%0.03%0.07%GBP0.07%-0.01%0.04%0.05%-0.00%0.01%0.06%JPY0.03%-0.07%-0.04%0.00%-0.02%-0.04%0.03%CAD0.02%-0.05%-0.05%-0.01%-0.03%0.02%0.02%AUD0.05%-0.01%0.00%0.02%0.03%0.02%0.05%NZD0.06%-0.03%-0.01%0.04%-0.02%-0.02%0.03%CHF0.00%-0.07%-0.06%-0.03%-0.02%-0.05%-0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies to an over two-week high, around the $4,140-$4,141 area, during the Asian session on Wednesday amid hopes that US-Iran diplomacy could ease energy prices and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. In fact, top negotiators for Iran and the US signaled that they have not walked away from talks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that the US was still open to holding talks with Iran, while Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited mediator Pakistan and asked Islamabad to continue its efforts. Moreover, reports suggest that mediators are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, the US military said it completed the 11th night of strikes on Iran early Wednesday, targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage sites. Adding to this, President Donald Trump warned that the US strikes would be intensifying and hit any site where Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program. Iran, on the other hand, continued attacks across the Gulf, targeting US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Adding to this, Iran said that its forces struck two oil tankers as they attempted to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis opened a new front in the war and declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.
The latest developments raise the risk of a broader regional conflict and could compound the shortfall in global energy markets amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, lifts crude oil prices to a fresh high since June 12 and fuels worries about energy-driven inflation, which could force the US central bank to stick to its hawkish stance. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are currently pricing in around an 88% chance that the Fed will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, favors US Dollar (USD) bulls and warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the non-yielding Gold.
Gold recovery seen constrained as Fed and real yields remain in focusAnalysts at OCBC suggest that, in the current environment, gold is likely to see “two-way” trading in the near term, with any rebound facing clear headwinds. They argue that “a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations,” and caution that “until then, upside may remain capped.”
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold could accelerate the positive move once 200-SMA on H4 is clearedFrom a technical perspective, an intraday breakout through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall since mid-June and acceptance above the $4,100 mark favor XAU/USD bulls. Furthermore, momentum indicators remain strong as the Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near overbought territory around 69.9, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays positive with the line well above zero. This, in turn, hints that upside pressure is still in play even if stretched.
That said, a sustained move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is needed to reaffirm the constructive outlook. The precious metal might then test the initial resistance at the 50.0% retracement at $4,163.16 and then the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,215.39. This is followed by the 78.6% level at $4,289.75 before the cycle high at $4,384.47.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period SMA around $4,128.26, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at $4,110.93 and the 23.6% Fibo. level at $4,046.31, with a deeper floor coming in near the structural low at $3,941.85.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Japan's oil-driven import surge widens trade gap, complicates BOJ holdGold hits 2-week high as Iran diplomacy kindling fires ahead of Fed 'hold' meetingTrump approves 30-year US-Saudi nuclear deal with enrichment optionGold jumps back above $4,100, bouncy!PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7933 (vs. estimate at 6.7737)Japan finmin flags Iran crisis as yen hits 40-year low, ambush risk buildsCENTCOM says Hormuz stays open on 11th night of Iran strikesWhite House to shift federal research funds to AI, away from collegesJapan trade data shows exports in June higher than expectedTrump sets 2-year tariff exemption for generic drugs, then steep risesUS attacks on Iran continue for the 11 straight nightUBS lifts S&P 500 target to 8,100, sees earnings rally underestimatedOil ICYMI - Houthi blockade threat forces Saudi crude tankers to turn backUSD/JPY hits fresh 40-year high above 163 as equities, yields and oil all gainPreview: ECB set to hold rates in July, hints of September hike expected: INGRecap - Oil climbs to five-week high as Iran conflict and Houthi blockade threat widenIran says all U.S. and allies interests in the region will be targeted if U.S. attacks nuclear sitesUS stocks ignore higher yields and Iran tensionOil: Private inventory survey shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expectedinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 21 Jul: USDJPY trades to a 40 year high and runsGoldman sees Brent near war-era $120 peak if Hormuz disruption persists - more detailSummary:
Oil prices rose as the Middle East conflict escalated into an 11th consecutive night of US-Iran attacks.Iran's top joint military command warned that all US and allied interests in the region will be targeted if the US strikes Iran's nuclear sites, calling it an expansion of the war.Kuwait's military said its air defence system intercepted Iranian drones, while IRNA reported drone and missile attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.Heavy strikes were reported in Behbahan and Mahshahr, with explosions in Tabriz, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar and Kangavar; Bandar Abbas was hit particularly hard, with strikes also reported in Sirik, Bushehr, west of Tabriz and Urmia.Unconfirmed reports suggested the US struck the Bidboland Gas Refinery in Mahshahr, Iran's largest gas processing facility and the largest gas hub in west Asia.Gold rose strongly, climbing above $4,100 and accelerating to around $4,140, while USD/JPY held barely below its 40-year high near 163.20.Regional stocks took their cue from Wall Street rather than the conflict, with Japan's Nikkei up over 1.5% and South Korea's Kospi up more than 4.5%. Oil prices climbed higher as the Middle East conflict escalated further into an 11th consecutive night of exchanges between US and Iranian forces, with strikes hitting military, energy and gas infrastructure across several Iranian cities and reports of Iranian drone and missile attacks on US bases in the Gulf.
Iran's top joint military command said on state television that all US and allied interests in the region would be targeted if the United States struck Iran's nuclear sites, warning that such an attack would amount to an expansion of the war. Shortly after, Kuwait's military said its air defence system was intercepting Iranian drones, while Iranian state media outlet IRNA reported drone and missile attacks on US bases in both Kuwait and Bahrain.
As the night progressed, reports emerged of heavy strikes in Behbahan and Mahshahr, with explosions heard in Tabriz in Iran's northwest and further blasts reported in Bandar Abbas, Chabahar and Kangavar. Iran's port city of Bandar Abbas was said to have been hit particularly hard. In total, US strikes were reported across Behbahan, Mahshahr, Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Chabahar, Bushehr, areas west of Tabriz and Urmia. Separately, unconfirmed reports suggested the US had struck the Bidboland Gas Refinery in Mahshahr, Khuzestan province, which is Iran's largest gas processing facility and the largest gas hub in west Asia, though these reports had not been verified.
Despite the scale of the escalation, gold pushed strongly higher, climbing above 4,100 dollars an ounce before accelerating further to around 4,140 dollars, extending a recovery that had already brought the metal back near a two week high earlier in the week. The move builds on the structural support central banks, led by China, have been providing to gold in recent months, alongside signs the metal had been undervaluing the conflict's risk premium through much of the war to this point.
USD/JPY held close to its recent 40 year high, trading barely lower than around 163.20, as the broader dollar strength tied to the conflict and diverging rate expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan continued to weigh on the yen.
Regional equity markets took their cue from a firmer session on Wall Street rather than the escalating conflict, with Japan's Nikkei up more than 1.5 percent and South Korea's Kospi rallying more than 4.5 percent, underscoring a disconnect between risk appetite in equities and the intensifying military exchanges in the Gulf.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground for the fourth successive day, trading around $59.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Silver prices are surging despite rising rate-hike expectations, as powerful market forces outweigh the drag of higher interest rates. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, institutional investors are possibly fleeing equities and channeling capital into tangible safe-haven assets like Silver.
However, the potential upside for the non-yielding metal may be limited, as escalating Middle East tensions and rising oil prices fuel inflation fears and keep interest rate expectations elevated. US President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of immediate negotiations with Tehran following mutual military strikes and threats from Iran-backed Houthi militants to disrupt Red Sea shipping routes. On Tuesday, Trump pledged to respond if the group interfered with the waterway, though he did not outline specific action.
In response, Iran's top military command stated via the Xinhua news agency that Tehran will expand its strikes to target US and allied assets across the region if the US attacks Iranian nuclear facilities.
On the monetary policy front, Fed Chair Warsh has repeatedly stressed that inflation remains a key concern for the central bank. This cautious stance has been echoed by several other Fed officials in recent weeks as they navigate ongoing economic pressures.
Policymakers have now entered their customary blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. Despite this anticipated pause, expectations for tighter policy remain elevated beyond July. In fact, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are currently pricing in over 71% odds of at least a 25 basis-point rate hike at the upcoming September meeting.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Key Points:Gold is approaching the key $4,200 resistance as technical buying supports the rebound.Silver has regained momentum after bouncing from the major support near $55.U.S.-Iran developments and the Federal Reserve outlook may keep both metals volatile.
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Gold (XAU) prices continue to rally on Wednesday due to developments in the ceasefire between the US and Iran. But the recent rebound is still limited below the $4,200 due to market uncertainty. A diplomatic deal may reduce supply risks in the Gulf and ease pressure on oil prices. The stable energy prices may cool down the inflation concerns and reduce the prospects of an interest rate hike in the United States.
The technical buying also supports the gold price. The price has been consolidating above the key support level of $3,950 since June 2026. These consolidations have created price compression pattern and triggered the rally. But the short term movements in gold are driven by the oil prices, geopolitical events and the Federal Reserve outlook. The concerns about the interest rates may prevent a strong recovery in precious metals.
Gold Technical Analysis: Break Above $4,200 Could Target $4,500 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price is compressing near the edge of the falling wedge pattern between the $3,950 and $4,200 area and is looking for its next direction.
A break above $4,200 may push the price higher toward $4,500. But a break below $3,950 could indicate further downside toward $3,800.
A break above $4,200 could open the door for a strong rally toward $5,000 as shown by the broadening wedge pattern in the chart below. This indicates that the next big move in gold will depend on the breakout of $5,000.
The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows strong price compression. Based on the descending wedge pattern that started after the January 2026 peak, a break above $4,200 will likely break this wedge pattern and open the door for further upside.
But the price movement in July is choppy and overlapping as per the historical price movements. This increases the risk of uncertain moves.
Silver Technical Analysis: Break Above $64 Could Open the Path to $72 The daily chart for spot silver also shows a strong rebound from the support at $55 toward the $64 area. The primary support zone defines this range. But a break below $55 will push the price toward $45. On the other hand, a break above $64 could open the door for further upside toward the $72 region.
The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows that the immediate pressure in the spot silver market has been erased by the breakout above the descending trend line. This indicates a quick move toward $64 in the spot silver market. A break above $64 may push silver toward the resistance of the descending wedge pattern at $72.
The $72 level has been a pivotal level during the past few weeks. Therefore, a break above $72 could increase the possibility of a strong surge in the silver market.
Bottom Line Gold and silver prices are supported by the improvements in geopolitical tensions and technical buying. Gold will need to break above $4,200 to indicate a stronger rally towards $4,500. But a break below $3,950 could push the price to $3,800 zone. If silver successfully breaks above the $64 resistance, it could push the price to the next major level of $72. But the outlook still depends on the oil prices, U.S.-Iran developments and the Federal Reserve outlook. These factors may keep both metals volatile in the near term.
Read more: Gold Rebounds From $4,000 Amid Market Uncertainty
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Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.
Gold started a recovery wave from the $3,960 region. It surpassed a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,035 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil extended gains and traded above the $83.50 resistance. Bitcoin recovered some losses and climbed above $66,500. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold found bids near $3,960 and $3,965 against the US Dollar. The price started a correction wave and climbed above the $4,000 resistance.
The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,035. It climbed above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $4,202 swing high to the $3,959 swing low.
It even tested the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours) but stayed well below the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours). On the upside, immediate resistance could be $4,085. The next major resistance might be near the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,145.
A clear move above $4,145 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,200 or even $4,220. Any more gains might send the price toward the $4,300 level.
If there is a fresh decline, the price could revisit the $4,015 support. The first major support sits at $4,000. The next support could be $3,960, below which the price might slide to $3,940. The main support sits at $3,915. Any more losses might call for a test of $3,880 or even $3,865 in the coming days.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price started a steady increase, and the bulls could even aim for a move toward the $88.00 level.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
UK Consumer Price Index for June 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +2.7%, versus +2.8% previous. UK Core Consumer Price Index for June 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +2.5%, versus +2.6% previous.
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The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT, a print that will matter for markets. Consensus expectations point to inflation pressures still above the Bank of England’s (BoE) target, although losing further momentum.
UK consumer inflation remains one of the most important inputs for the BoE and typically carries real weight for the British Pound (GBP). Following the latest cautious hold by the BoE on June 18, investors now favour a steady hand by the ‘Old Lady’ at its meeting on July 30.
What to expect from the next UK inflation report?Headline UK CPI is expected to clock 2.7% in the year to June, a tad lower than the May reading. On a monthly basis, inflation is seen gaining 0.1%, adding to the 0.2% increase recorded the previous month.
Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components and is therefore more closely watched by the BoE, is forecast at 2.5% on an annual basis, down a tenth of percent from May.
How will the UK CPI data affect GBP/USD?The BoE met expectations and kept the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% on June 18. However, the 7–2 vote split carried a slightly more hawkish tone, with Megan Greene joining Huw Pill in supporting a 25-basis-point increase. But the larger message is patience, with policy still firmly in wait-and-see mode and market pricing that reflects that stance.
In his latest comments last week, Governor Andrew Bailey said the renewed hostilities in the Gulf highlighted the instability facing the global economy. Turning to the UK, he argued that the country was supported by both its fiscal framework and monetary policy, while stressing that the central challenge remained economic growth.
Bailey added that the UK’s core banking system was resilient and that debt levels were not overstretched. However, he warned that sustainable economic growth would not be possible without financial stability.
Implied rates currently suggest nearly 43 basis points of tightening by year-end, while consensus sees the central bank keeping its policy rate unchanged at its next gathering on July 30.
Back to technicals, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, Pablo Piovano, notes that the recent multi-week recovery in GBP/USD appears to have encountered some initial hurdle in the 1.3550-1.3560 band near the July tops. “In case bulls regain the upper hand, the next barrier emerges at the May top at 1.3653 (May 11), followed by the YTD ceiling at 1.3868 (January 27)," he adds.
On the downside, Piovano sees initial contention at current yearly lows near 1.3140 (June 24). “Further weakness from here could expose a move toward the November 2025 base at 1.3010 (November 5),” Piovano adds.
Piovano also points out that momentum indicators remain somewhat bullish for now as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below 54, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 18 suggests the current trend lacks muscle.
Interest rates FAQs Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is also the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Current Setup and Live Chart The trading week is now in its second day, and the GBP/INR pair is currently trading 0.4% lower on the day. The pair lost its early gains as sentiment around the rupee has been boosted by the first update since the Reserve Bank of India introduced a range of measures to attract foreign inflows into the country. The Reserve Bank of India said $20.72 billion had been mobilized through to 17 July, with foreign currency non-resident deposits accounting for about $17.5 billion of the total.
This has created a condition for a retracement in GBP/INR despite improving UK economic sentiment. Overall, the Indian rupee remains pressured by elevated oil prices, which arose from the new geopolitical tensions in the East.
Oil prices have now hit $90 per barrel. The country’s status as the third-largest crude oil importer keeps the currency vulnerable despite the RBI’s interventions.
GBP/INR Macro Drivers 1) Improving UK Fundamentals
Improved UK fundamentals have supported the pound as recent developments have strengthened investors’ confidence in the UK currency. These factors include:
better-than-expected good data stabilization of UK government bonds improved fiscal credibility resilient labor market conditions The UK Claimant Count Change came in at 6.7K, which was far less than the market expectation of 29.4K. Furthermore, the average earnings index came in at 4.3%, which is a tad lower than the trial and consensus numbers. Public sector borrowing fell from £20 billion to £16.0 billion, which was lower than the consensus number of £17.8 billion. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.9%. The market has had a positive response to the numbers, reinforcing renewed investor confidence in the pound and the UK economy.
2) Higher Oil Prices
India is the world’s third-largest oil importer. As a result, higher oil prices increase the country’s energy import bill, add current account pressures on the Indian economy, and increase the risk of imported inflation. Furthermore, there is an increased demand for foreign currency to pay for energy imports. Higher oil prices also lead to risk-averse sentiment, which promotes capital outflows from the Indian stock and bond markets. This generally creates a situation where existing funds have to be reconverted into foreign currency, further increasing FX demand.
3) Diverging Macroeconomic Risks
The market perception is that the UK’s economy is on a path of better fiscal and monetary policy management, while India is facing several challenges arising from higher energy prices, such as inflation and increased current account pressures. The divergence in fiscal and monetary policy expectations between the two countries has become increasingly supportive for the pound at the expense of the rupee in the near term. This perception supports a GBP/INR upside trajectory in the medium term.
GBP/INR Price Catalysts 1) Bank of England Rate Expectations: Incoming UK data on growth and inflation will provide a directional market bias for the Bank of England’s monetary policy direction. Hawkish BoE expectations are expected to follow strong data, which is supportive for the Pound. Weak data will turn expectations dovish, allowing for a retracement in GBP/INR.
2) Brent crude prices: Oil prices are a key price catalyst for the rupee. Higher oil prices weaken the rupee, which is supportive for the pair even in the absence of strong UK data. On the flip side, lower oil prices strengthen the rupee, allowing for a relief retracement on the GBP/INR.
3) Geopolitical developments: geopolitical developments in the Middle East are an ongoing price catalyst. De-escalation of tensions is rupee-supportive as this has a calming impact on oil prices. De-escalation signals come from continued shipping across the Strait of Hormuz, diplomatic negotiations, and a scaling down of military developments.
GBP/INR Forecast Scenarios Base case: Recent UK developments—including firmer growth- have strengthened the Pound, while higher oil prices have put the rupee on the back foot. Unless there are changes to the prevailing fundamentals, the balance of risks is currently tilted toward the Pound, which supports an upside bias.
Bull case: oil prices > $100 per barrel will further weaken the rupee as energy import costs rise. Investment demand will also shift away from emerging market FX such as the rupee, even as the accompanying risk aversion drives capital out of the Indian markets. Under these conditions, the GBP/INR could break above recent resistance levels.
Bear case: this is triggered by a sharp decline in oil prices, dovish Bank of England expectations, or a rapid de-escalation of Middle East tensions. Under these conditions, the rupee’s outlook will become more favorable, resulting in a retracement on the GBP/INR.
GBP/INR Technical Outlook The retreat towards the 128.90 support makes a case for a dip buy at that point. If that support is breached, the retracement extends toward the 127.38 support. The 124.32 support and site of the recent swing low beckons if the 127.38 support buckles under bearish pressure.
Fig 1: GBP/INR daily chart (snapshot taken on 21 July 2026) However, a bounce on 128.90 allows for a push towards the 13132 resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. This is consequent upon an uncapping of the 130.00 psychological resistance. Above this, 134.18 serves as the next barrier, being formed by the 100% Fibonacci extension level of the 22 December 2025 – 21 January 2026 upswing.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7933 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7917 and 6.7737 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground to around $4,080 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rebounds as safe-haven demand intensified globally after retreating to the $4,000 psychological level in the previous session.
Renewed military tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have injected high volatility into commodities, prompting traders to rotate capital back into safe-haven yellow metal. Additionally, analysts said that the buying comes with the macro backdrop largely unchanged. “Today’s move looks more like dip-buying than a response to new headlines,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING.
Traders continue to weigh escalations in the US-Iran war. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has carried out its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran since US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” while Tehran’s forces have struck US military assets across the Middle East and its Houthi allies have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
Markets will closely monitor Middle East tensions for signs that higher energy costs could stoke inflation, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten policy. Swap traders see low odds of the Fed raising rates at its next meeting in July after softer US inflation data, although traders have fully priced in at least one hike by the end of the year.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The GBP/JPY consolidates around 218.20 as the Pound Sterling loses momentum amid the new PM, Andy Burnham, taking office. Fears of a possible intervention by Japanese authorities capped the cross-pair advance, which remains trading near year-to-date (YTD) highs seen on July 15.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe ongoing pullback during the last four trading days stalled near the 217.50 area, at around the low of the day (LOD) of 217.53. Since then, GBP/JPY has bounced and reclaimed the 218.00 level, increasing buyers’ chances of testing higher prices.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that momentum is bullish, though it has turned flat, suggesting the cross could trade sideways.
For a bullish continuation, GBP/JPY needs to surpass the 218.50 psychological level before 219.00. Once breached, the next stop would be the YTD high of 219.61, ahead of 220.00.
On the downside, a decisive break below the July 21 low of 217.53 opens the path to challenge 217.00. Below lies the April 30 high-turned-support at 216.60, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.00.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
USD/JPY has finally broken higher after weeks of compression, with easing bearish sentiment towards the Japanese yen adding fuel to the rally. While the US dollar led the move, the technical backdrop also favours further upside for GBP/JPY, although crude oil prices remain a key variable for CAD/JPY bears.
Source: LSEG
View related analysis:
US Dollar Bulls Lose Momentum, Commodity FX Defies Positioning | COT Report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Hold the Edge Ahead of Jobs Data Nasdaq Could Look to KOSPI for Directional Clues Beyond Earnings Canadian Dollar Slides as Soft CPI and Trump Tariffs Lift USD/CAD USD/JPY Leads as Japanese Yen Weakness Keeps GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY in Focus It only seemed a matter of time before volatility erupted on USD/JPY, given the compression pattern beneath its 39-year high. Momentum ultimately broke to the upside, helped by a strong session for the US dollar amid the latest flare-up in Middle East tensions.
As noted in this week’s COT report, net-short exposure to the Japanese yen has moved away from a sentiment extreme. That removes some pressure from bearish yen positions and gives the USD/JPY breakout more breathing room. The question now is whether other currencies, such as the British pound or Canadian dollar could also take advantage of the weaker yen.
Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.
USD/JPY Tests Trendline Resistance After Breakout Regular readers will know I am not an advocate of trendlines, but I concede they deserve attention from time to time. In this case, a trendline projected from the January high coincides with Tuesday's high, making it a valid interim resistance level. It is also one that could break, given the strength of the move out of the compression pattern.
The monthly R1 pivot (163.72) and 165.30 may be the next resistance levels for bulls if the trendline breaks. That said, prices appear stretched on the 1-hour chart, while bearish RSI divergences have formed in overbought territory, raising the potential for a near-term pullback. Bulls could look to buy dips within Tuesday's range, with 163 potentially providing support.
Source: ICE, TradingView
GBP/JPY Bulls Eye 219 as British Pound Holds the Advantage The GBP/JPY uptrend on the daily chart speaks for itself, with bullish momentum accelerating from the June low. Prices have retraced to the 10-day EMA and the monthly R2 pivot, while Tuesday's wide-legged doji has caught my eye as it hints at a swing low forming within a strong uptrend.
Price action on the 1-hour chart appears corrective, given the overlapping nature of the decline. Moreover, elevated volumes accompanied the swing low, reinforcing my suspicion of bullish accumulation above 217.50. GBP/JPY is now attempting to form a higher low around the 218.00 handle and the weekly pivot point.
Ultimately, my near-term bias for the British pound against the Japanese yen remains bullish while prices hold above Tuesday's low, with a move to 219.00 as the minimum upside target. Note the July 2007 low at 219.036 and the 219.61 high as additional resistance levels ahead of the weekly R1 pivot just below 220.00.
Source: ICE, TradingView
CAD/JPY Reversal Pattern Faces Crude Oil Headwind The daily chart shows an evening star pattern (a three-bar bearish reversal) forming around the 116.00 handle, warning that a top may be in place. Tuesday's small bullish inside day represents a lacklustre attempt by bulls to reclaim lost ground, and the fact it closed around the monthly R1 pivot suggests CAD/JPY could be gearing up for another leg lower.
However, rising crude oil prices are a fly in the ointment for CAD/JPY bears. As a major oil exporter, Canada typically benefits from higher crude oil prices, which can underpin the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. If crude oil continues to rally, it could support CAD/JPY, or at least make life more difficult for bears. Conversely, if Middle East tensions ease and crude oil prices retreat, it could pave the way for the next leg lower in CAD/JPY.
A break below the weekly pivot point (115.31) would bring the weekly S1 level and monthly pivot point into focus near 114.50.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surges over 4.50% on Tuesday, reaching five-day highs, clearing $59.00 as buyers push the white metal to test a downslope resistance trendline near the $59.65/$50.75 range, about to surpass the $60.00 mark.
XAG/USD price forecast: Technical outlookFrom a technical perspective, it seems XAG/USD is about to break a downtrend resistance line, which could open the door to a recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are gaining momentum, suggesting Silver could test higher levels in the near term.
If XAG/USD clears $59.75, the immediate test would be $60.00. A breach of the latter opens the path to challenge the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $66.89 ahead of the June 22 daily peak at $67.17. Above, the next area of interest would be the psychological $70.00.
On the downside, Silver’s first support is the low of the day (LOD) at $56.11. Below lies $55.00, followed by the November 13. 2025 high turned support at $54.39, followed by the $55.00 milestone.
XAG/USD daily price chart
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Although USD/MXN has declined more than 0.8% over the last few sessions, favoring the Mexican peso, the broader chart still does not show a clear direction. For now, the Mexican currency remains in an important neutral phase, in a context where the renewed threat of tariffs in North America and the lack of strong signals continue to limit confidence.
In this scenario, a phase of indecision could continue to be part of USD/MXN movements over the next few trading sessions, at least until relevant economic data is released.
Is the Mexican peso failing to stabilize confidence? Over the last few sessions, the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso has continued to be shaped by bond market dynamics. In both countries, yields have shown consistent increases, with Mexico’s 10-year bonds above 9.00% and U.S. 10-year bonds above 4.6%.
This differential still provides some relative appeal for peso-denominated investments, especially compared to dollar-denominated assets. This has been one of the reasons why the Mexican peso has not lost value consistently against the dollar in recent months. In addition, the difference between both central banks’ reference rates, with 6.5% in Mexico versus 3.75% in the United States, remains an important factor for the pair’s behavior.
Source: TradingEconomics
However, this relative appeal has not been enough to generate dominant strength in the Mexican peso. Part of this is explained by the moderation of inflation in Mexico, which has led the Bank of Mexico to maintain a more neutral tone in recent comments. For now, monetary policy appears focused on waiting and avoiding relevant short-term changes.
At this point, the dynamic could start to shift. While Banxico maintains a more neutral outlook, the Federal Reserve could still adopt a more aggressive tone over the coming months. According to the CME Group probability table, for the September 2026 decision, there is still a probability above 54% that the United States could deliver its first rate hike of the year, taking the rate toward a new area near 4.00%.
Source: CMEGROUP
This shift is relevant because a more aggressive Fed stance could reduce the rate differential that has favored Mexican bonds and, by extension, the Mexican peso for several months. At the same time, if dollar-denominated assets begin to offer higher yields, they could become more attractive than peso-denominated investments, which are usually perceived as riskier.
For this reason, the possibility of a more aggressive Fed continues to generate uncertainty and limits a clearer recovery in the peso. If Banxico’s comments continue to point to a neutral stance and the market maintains expectations of higher rates in the United States, the phase of indecision could remain relevant in USD/MXN over the coming weeks.
Could new tariffs have an impact? Recently, the possibility of renewed trade tensions in North America gained traction again after the United States signaled new tariffs on several Canadian products, with rates of up to 50% in the short term.
Although this event does not directly affect the Mexican economy, it does serve as a warning signal. In previous rounds of trade tension, both Canada and Mexico were exposed to tariff measures, and for now, there have been no major advances in negotiations related to the USMCA between Mexico and the United States.
This point is relevant because close to 80% of Mexican exports are directed to the United States. For this reason, any trade escalation that includes Mexico could quickly affect confidence in the Mexican peso, as has already happened during previous periods of tension. If more aggressive comments or measures against the Mexican economy emerge, USD/MXN could start to show more relevant buying pressure over the coming weeks.
Technical forecast for USD/MXN
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Sideways range continues to dominate: For several months, USD/MXN has continued to trade within a broad long-term sideways range. Despite price movement attempts, neutrality remains the dominant feature on the chart. For now, this range remains the most important technical structure to watch and could continue to reflect a lack of direction over the next few trading sessions.
RSI: Now, the RSI line remains close to the neutral 50 level. This indicates a balance between buying and selling impulses in the market. This reading confirms that the phase of indecision remains relevant for short-term USD/MXN movements.
TRIX: The TRIX line shows a similar dynamic, with movements close to the neutral 0 level. This reflects balance in the strength of long-term exponential moving averages. As long as this behavior continues, price neutrality could remain important over the next few sessions. Key levels:
17.71 – Main resistance: This recent high zone coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. Sustained movements toward this area could mark the beginning of a more consistent buying bias and open room for the possible formation of a bullish trend line over the coming weeks.
17.39 – Current barrier: This relevant retracement level from recent weeks and important neutral zone coincides with the 50-period simple moving average. If price fails to move away from this level, the phase of indecision could be reinforced and the sideways range could extend over the medium term.
17.10 – Relevant support: This area corresponds to the 2026 lows and remains the main bearish barrier for now. Moves toward this level could bring the selling bias back into focus and open the way for a continuation of the descending channel that had remained the dominant structure months ago.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Gold price surges on Tuesday during the North American session, up by more than 1.50% amid continued missile strikes between the US and Iran despite mediators' efforts to end the war. The XAU/USD trades at $4,071
XAU/USD gains as ceasefire doubts revive safe-haven demandThe yellow metal is gathering traction even as US Treasury yields and the Greenback register gains. Oil prices are also rising as Ansar Allah threatens to attack vessels in the Red Sea, adding to fears for Crude supply disruptions.
Newswires revealed that the US is demanding a longer ceasefire and partial navigation in Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran proposed a 10-day ceasefire.
Other news showed that US President Donald Trump is considering whether to accept Iran’s 10-day ceasefire or to launch a full-scale war on Iran. A US official hinted that if the President chooses the latter, the strikes could target Tehran and Iran’s nuclear sites.
This week, the US economic calendar is quiet. The ADP Employment Change 4-week average decreased to 16.5K from 19.25K. On Wednesday, the docket is absent, followed by Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims, leading up to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting on July 29.
In the meantime, the US 10-year Treasury yield is rising by nearly 3.5 basis points to 4.628%, usually a headwind for Bullion, which tends to edge lower due to its non-yielding nature. Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against six others, advances 0.12% to 101.11.
Expectations that the Fedmight increase the pace of rate hikes in 2026 are surging, driven by elevated Oil prices as Gulf supply disruptions stoke inflation fears and fuel speculation of higher interest rates for a longer period.
Prime Terminal data indicates a 78% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, while the likelihood of a September hike is about 68%.
Source: Prime TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price recovers yet is poised to consolidateGold is poised to continue trending sideways, though it’s trading near five-day highs approaching $4,100. Momentum is moderately bullish in the short term as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 50-neutral level.
From a market structure perspective, the trend is downward. To restart an upward trend, Gold needs to clear the resistance trendline circa $4,125. Once cleared, the next higher-high will be the July 10 high at $4,134, ahead of the July 6 peak at $4,202. A breach of the latter will put the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,264 into play.
For a bearish continuation, Bullion needs to clear the $4,000 mark. Below is the July 17 low at $3,959, followed by $3,900. If sellers continue to drive prices lower, the next area of interest would be the October 28, 2025 low of $3,886.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
US Dollar Talking Points: It’s been a bullish response in the USD after last week’s webinar, when the Dollar was pulling back following CPI data. As looked at then, the response to the pullback or counter-trend criteria would be telling for forward-looking trend, and that’s held true across USD/JPY as well with the pair pushing up to fresh 40-year highs. To sign up for next week’s webinar, the following link will allow for registration: Click here to register.
This week’s webinar continues nicely from last weeks as the prior week’s theme was responsiveness to counter-trend criteria, and this week shows strong continuation in both USD and USD/JPY bullish trends.
US Dollar Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
As looked at coming into this week, the big question around the DXY basket is the Euro, which will see an ECB rate decision on Thursday morning. At this point, EUR/USD clings to a bearish trend but the past few weeks has built a bullish channel, making for a bear flag formation. At the time of the webinar the support side of that formation was being tested around the 1.1402 Fibonacci level. That has since been tested through and the question at this point is whether sellers can run the move into the close of the daily bar, or whether we end up with another higher-low ahead of the rate meeting on Thursday.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY The driving force behind USD flows at the moment is the USD/JPY pair that’s pushed up to fresh 40-year highs. Next week brings a BoJ meeting but the bigger question is whether the Bank of Japan really wants to do what would be needed to narrow the rate discrepancy in the pair. That could bring a big risk to Japanese businesses and that could produce political turmoil for Japanese policymakers, which is at least part of the reason why the breakout has been as forceful as it has been since last October.
Chasing such a move is a challenge. Instead, patience and waiting for pullbacks so that the trend can re-assert itself, such as what was looked at in last week’s webinar or in the Monday article before that, could be a more reasonable way of approaching the matter.
USD/JPY Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels A month-long contraction in USD/JPY has resolved higher, restoring upside momentum into the yearly highs. The breakout has pushed price toward a major technical resistance cluster just overhead. Weekly momentum has reached its strongest level since January, reinforcing the broader bullish outlook. A sustained weekly close above resistance is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance Intervention risk remains a key wildcard as traders look ahead to next week's FOMC decision and June PCE inflation report. Resistance 163.33, 164 (key), 169- Support 161.95, 160.74 (key), 157.70-158.08 USD/JPY has broken out of a contracting July opening range to trade at fresh yearly highs, shifting the focus back to a major technical resistance cluster just overhead. The pair spent much of the month consolidating within an increasingly compressed range before buyers regained control and cleared the upper boundary earlier today. Price is now approaching the next major upside objective, where trendline resistance converges with key Fibonacci extension targets. With weekly momentum at its strongest level since January and nearing overbought territory, the reaction at this barrier could determine whether the breakout fuels another leg higher or gives way to a deeper corrective pullback. Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY had broken to fresh yearly highs into the start of the month and that, “From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long exposure / raise protective stops on a rally towards 163.33- losses should be limited to 160.74 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 164 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” USD/JPY failed to sustain the advance that week with price reversing more than 1.4% to register an intraweek low at 160.48 before stabilizing.
Nearly four weeks later, USD/JPY is now within striking distance of the 1.618% extension of the 2025 advance at 163.33. Note that basic trendline resistance extending off the yearly highs converges on this level over the next few weeks- look for a reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance is eyed just higher at the 1.618% extension of the yearly opening range breakout at 164. A breach / close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 1.618% extension of the January advance near 169-proper.
Initial weekly support rests with the 2024 high at 161.95 with medium-term bullish invalidation steady at the 2024 high-week close (HWC) and the April high at 160.73/74. Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and threaten a deeper correction towards uptrend support at the 2025 / January high-week closes (HWC) at 157.70-158.08.
Bottom line: USD/JPY is approaching technical resistance at fresh yearly highs, and the focus is on possible inflection off this level in the days ahead. Note that weekly momentum has now reached its highest level since January (near 67) and a stretch into overbought alongside a breach above this resistance barrier would likely reinforce / sustain this rally. From a trading standpoint, the outlook remains unchanged and losses would need to be limited to 160.74 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 164 needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.
The threat of official intervention remains a key risk for USD/JPY, with Japanese authorities retaining the option to step into the market at any time to stem excessive yen weakness. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet ahead of next week's FOMC rate decision and the release of June PCE inflation data. Watch the weekly close for confirmation of the broader directional bias and ensure all open exposure is managed with well-defined risk parameters. Review my latest Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts Euro (EUR/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies as rising oil prices boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Interestingly, the dynamics of oil markets did not put any pressure on gold in today’s trading session.
Traders will start wondering whether gold has finally reached a bottom. It looks that there’s strong demand for gold near the psychologically important $4000 level.
Currently, gold is trying to settle above the resistance level at $4020 – $4040. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the $4100 level. If gold climbs above $4100, it will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the $4180 – $4200 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
On the support side, a move below the $4000 level will push gold towards the support level at $3930 – $3950. A move below the $3930 level will indicate that gold is ready to gain additional downside momentum.
Silver Tests The $59.00 Level As Gold/Silver Ratio Pulls Back
It has not been an easy start to the week for the Canadian dollar. Now, renewed weakness in the currency is becoming evident, while USD/CAD has gained more than 0.6% over the last 2 trading sessions, reflecting U.S. dollar strength and a new loss of momentum in the CAD.
Although buying pressure in the pair had already started to emerge after the release of CPI inflation data in Canada, it has become more evident following recent comments about possible new tariffs on the country. This event has started to reduce confidence and could continue to affect the Canadian dollar in the short term, keeping relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few trading sessions.
Are new tariffs on the way? Recently, the United States announced a new package of tariffs on goods coming from Canada, with rates that could reach up to 50% of the value of some products, including items ranging from wine to sporting goods. In addition, it has been mentioned that these new tariffs could include goods that are part of the North American trade agreement, the USMCA.
This event has not been favorable for confidence around the Canadian economy. Although Canada has tried to make progress on trade agreements with other countries, its economy remains strongly linked to trade activity with the United States. The latest trade balance data show that, by the end of 2025, more than 72% of Canadian exports were still directed to the United States compared with the rest of the world.
This keeps concerns around Canada’s economic dependence on its main trading partner in focus, especially if recent comments about new tariffs materialize and affect this relationship in the short term.
Source: InternationalCanada
With all of this in mind, the situation remains difficult for Canadian dollar strength. If the new tariffs materialize, they could affect growth expectations in Canada and limit the flow of foreign currency into the country.
For this reason, uncertainty could remain relevant, especially if recent comments turn into concrete measures. In this scenario, the Canadian dollar could struggle to gain ground consistently against the U.S. dollar, which would continue to favor possible buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
Do inflation data also have an impact? During the previous session, CPI inflation data in Canada was released. Although the market expected an annual reading of 2.9%, the figure came in at 2.8%, showing a slight slowdown from the recent high of 3.2% observed in May.
This moderation brings inflation closer again to the approximate 2.00% target and reduces concerns about a stronger acceleration in Canadian prices. For this reason, the Bank of Canada could face less pressure to adopt a more aggressive stance over the coming months.
Source: TradingEconomics
Market expectations point in the same direction. For the September and October decisions, the probability table shows more than a 60% chance that interest rates will remain without relevant changes.
This limits the appeal of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Canada’s reference rate, at 2.25%, remains considerably lower than the U.S. rate, which stands at 3.75%. This difference favors USD-denominated investments, especially due to the higher yield offered by the U.S. fixed-income market.
For this reason, the inflation reading could continue to weigh on the CAD and maintain relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few trading sessions.
Technical forecast for USD/CAD
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
New recovery becomes relevant: For several trading sessions, USD/CAD managed to break a long bullish trend line that had been in place for several months. However, selling strength has not fully dominated the chart. The new recovery has pushed price back above the 50-period simple moving average, indicating that the buying bias seen in previous months has not fully disappeared. If this behavior continues, room could open for a more relevant phase of indecision or even for an attempt to recover the previous bullish trend line.
RSI: The RSI line remains close to the 50 level. This indicates that, for now, there is still a balance between bullish and bearish impulses in the market over the last 14 sessions. This reading shows that a possible indecision bias could remain relevant in USD/CAD movements over the next few trading sessions.
TRIX: Now, the TRIX line has started to show relevant declines, although it still remains above the neutral 0 level. This reflects that bullish strength remains dominant on average across long-term exponential moving averages. For this reason, the broader buying bias from previous months may not have fully disappeared from the long-term chart.
Key levels:
1.42089 – Relevant resistance: This 2026 high remains the most important buying barrier on the chart. Price movements toward this area could reactivate a buying bias and restore relevance to the bullish trend line that was important in previous weeks.
1.40813 – Near-term barrier: This nearby area corresponds to the most relevant 23.6% Fibonacci level on the chart. Price movements that fail to move consistently away from this level could continue to highlight an important neutral phase and even open room for the formation of a short-term sideways range over the next few sessions.
1.39905 – Crucial support: This relevant bearish barrier corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area and also aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements below this level could reaffirm a more consistent selling bias and open room for a possible short-term bearish trend line over the next few sessions.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
The Pound Sterling loses some ground against the US Dollar, down by 0.48%, as risk appetite in the foreign exchange markets deteriorates, with the Greenback reclaiming key technical levels in the US Dollar Index (DXY) amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3371, after reaching a daily high of 1.3455. Read More...
British Pound extends losses nearing 1.3400 as markets await Burnham’s policiesThe British Pound (GBP) is one of the weakest performers among major currencies, extending its reversal against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive week. The GBP/USD pair is drifting closer to the 1.3400 level heading into the US trading session on Tuesday, as investors ponder UK Prime Minister Burnham's promises and the profiles of his cabinet's members. Read More...
British Pound attracts bids after UK employment data releaseThe British Pound (GBP) snaps a three-day losing streak against the Japanese Yen (JPY), rebounding to near 218.55 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The cross attracts bids after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending May. Read More...
Key Points:GBP/USD pulled back despite the better-than-expected UK Unemployment Rate report. USD/CAD gained ground as traders ignored the rally in precious metals markets. USD/JPY tested the 163.00 level as traders focused on rising Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Rising Demand For Safe-Haven Assets
DXY 210726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to rising oil prices. WTI oil moved above the $84.00 level amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Demand for safe-haven assets increased, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.
Treasury yields are moving higher as bond traders bet that high oil prices will force Fed to raise rates. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.63%. Rising Treasury yields provided additional support to the American currency.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level at 101.80 – 102.00.
EUR/USD Attempts To Settle Below The 1.1400 Level EUR/USD 210726 4h Chart EUR/USD is mostly flat as traders focus on the Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index report. The report indicated that Economic Sentiment increased from 9.5 in June to 23.4 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 11.2.
If EUR/USD stays below the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
GBP/USD Retreats As Pullback Continues GBP/USD 210726 4h Chart GBP/USD remains under pressure as traders stay focused on first moves of new UK Prime Minister and react to the UK Unemployment Rate report. The report indicated that Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.9% in May, compared to analyst forecast of 5.0%.
The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range. If GBP/USD manages to settle below the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
USD/CAD Gains Ground Amid Rising Treasury Yields USD/CAD 210726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields and ignore the rally in precious metals markets. Gold moved above the $4050 level, while silver settled above $59.00. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.
In case USD/CAD stays above the 50 MA at 1.4083, it will move towards the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140. A successful test of the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.
USD/JPY Tests Multi-Decade Highs USD/JPY 210726 4h Chart USD/JPY is trying to settle above the 163.00 level as traders ignore intervention risks and focus on the fundamental weakness of the Japanese currency.
Rising Treasury yields put significant pressure on the Japanese yen due to the ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan. High oil prices serve as an additional bearish catalyst as Japanese economy is dependent on energy imports. A combination of higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices pushed the Japanese yen towards multi-decade lows.
In case USD/JPY settles above the 163.00 level, it will head towards the 165.00 level. RSI is in the overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain additional momentum in the near term. Potential BoJ interventions are the key risk for the bulls.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
USD/CHF edges higher as escalating tensions in the Middle East support the US Dollar (USD), with buyers eyeing a breakout above the 0.8150 resistance level that has capped gains since July 2025. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8123, up 0.27% on the day.
From a technical perspective, USD/CHF has largely traded sideways after breaking above 0.8000 in June. A successful retest of that level drew buyers back into the market. Holding above 0.8000 keeps the near-term bias tilted to the upside, although buyers may need a fresh catalyst to clear 0.8150.
On the daily chart, the pair trades above the Bollinger Bands 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8084 and is approaching the upper band at 0.8140.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 points to positive momentum without signalling overbought conditions. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has eased to around 26 from above 30, suggesting the recent advance is losing some strength.
Immediate resistance lies at the upper Bollinger Band near 0.8140, closely followed by the multi-month barrier at 0.8150. On the downside, initial support sits at the Bollinger midline at 0.8084, followed by the lower band at 0.8029. Below that, the 0.8000 and 0.7900 horizontal levels could attract buying interest.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.43%0.31%0.22%-0.14%0.12%0.25%EUR-0.05%0.39%0.26%0.18%-0.16%0.08%0.20%GBP-0.43%-0.39%-0.11%-0.21%-0.55%-0.31%-0.18%JPY-0.31%-0.26%0.11%-0.09%-0.44%-0.21%-0.06%CAD-0.22%-0.18%0.21%0.09%-0.35%-0.10%0.03%AUD0.14%0.16%0.55%0.44%0.35%0.25%0.40%NZD-0.12%-0.08%0.31%0.21%0.10%-0.25%0.13%CHF-0.25%-0.20%0.18%0.06%-0.03%-0.40%-0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
USD/JPY trades higher near 163.00 on Tuesday after briefly reaching 163.04, marking its first move above the 163.00 level since December 1986. The US Dollar (USD) remains supported by safe-haven demand as investors assess renewed Middle East tensions and rising Oil prices.
The pair advanced despite signs of softer US labor-market momentum. The ADP Employment Change four-week average declined to 16.5K from 19.25K, suggesting that private-sector hiring continues to cool.
Recent softer US inflation data has also limited expectations of further aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening. However, geopolitical uncertainty and persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY) continue to dominate, keeping USD/JPY near multi-decade highs and increasing the risk of intervention from Japanese authorities.
Yen underperforms as Japan data loom and intervention risk stays on radarStrategists at Scotiabank highlight that the Yen’s underperformance against the US Dollar is keeping policymakers firmly in focus, noting they “remain concerned about the possibility of official intervention, or at the very least comments threatening potential action.” They add that the immediate data calendar offers few distractions, with “overnight releases…limited but Japan is scheduled to deliver its June trade figures at 7:50pm ET, ahead of CPI data later in the week,” events that could further shape market expectations around potential MoF responses to currency moves.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 162.97, holding a bullish near-term bias as it remains above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 162.45 and the 100-period SMA at 162.15. The pair is pressing into overhead supply just beneath the horizontal resistance at 163.04, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends into overbought territory around 73, hinting at strong but stretched upside momentum that could slow fresh gains.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nearby horizontal level at 162.94, followed by deeper cushions at 162.75 and 162.59, which align beneath the short-term 20-period SMA at 162.45 and the medium-term 100-period SMA at 162.15 to reinforce the broader constructive structure.
On the topside, a clear break above 163.04 would open the way for further appreciation, while failure to overcome this barrier could trigger consolidation or a corrective pullback toward the clustered supports below.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD Key Points The UK jobs report was mixed, with unemployment falling but wages coming in lower than expected. Traders are skeptical about the new UK government, but aren’t panicking yet. The Pound is the weakest major currency on the day, with GBP/USD falling -50 pips on the day to break below a 1-month bullish trendline.
Outside of earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla after the bell tomorrow, most of the major market-moving economic data will come from the European continent this week. Today’s focus is on the situation in the UK.
During this morning’s European session, the UK jobs report pointed to a labor market that is stabilizing, albeit at a relatively weak level. Unemployment slipped to 4.9% in the three months through May, while the employment rate edged up to 75.1%. In terms of raw numbers, new unemployment claimants fell to 6.7K, well below expectations of 29K, while average earnings rose 4.3% 3mo/y, below the 4.5% that economists had anticipated. Overall, easing wage pressure and weak hiring should reassure the Bank of England that domestic inflation is cooling, although conflicting employment surveys and recent data-quality problems argue against placing too much weight on this report in isolation.
New Chancellor and Energy VAT In one of new Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s first moves, John Healey was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer yesterday. Healey has previous junior Treasury experience, but his recent political profile was built at the Ministry of Defence, where he criticized the Treasury for constraining government ambitions and pushed for defense spending to reach 3% of GDP by 2030.
His first comments in the new role emphasized that fiscal control and market credibility remain central, a key note to hit in an economy plagued by high debt, elevated borrowing costs and little room for significant unfunded spending.
The government’s first cost-of-living measure will temporarily cut VAT on household electricity from 5% to zero for six months beginning October 1, reducing the typical annualized bill by around £45 and costing approximately £850 million in 2026–27. Ministers say the measure will be funded by cancelling the previous government’s planned £1.8 billion digital ID program, although the IFS notes that the program’s funding had never been fully identified, weakening the claim that its cancellation creates a straightforward cash saving. For the broader economy, the policy should mechanically lower headline inflation and provide some household relief, but it is modest in scale.
Moving forward, traders will key in on any policy pronouncements from the new government, with the highly-anticipated November budget already looming in the back of some traders’ minds.
British Pound Technical Analysis: GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart
Source: Tradingview, StoneX
Markets are already expressing a dollop of skepticism toward the new government, with the yield on the benchmark 10yr Gilt rising 6bps since the announcement to cross back above the psychologically significant 5% level. Meanwhile, pound sterling is the weakest major currency on the day, falling more than 50 pips against the greenback as of writing and breaking below a 1-month bullish trendline. Moving forward, the pair is likely to remain under pressure, with near-term support at last week’s low near 1.3350 and then the 1.3300 level. Only a recovery back above 1.3450 would erase the near-term bearish bias.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight the Euro (EUR) trading quietly against the US Dollar (USD) in a tight low-1.14 range, with limited reaction to stronger ZEW sentiment data. Short-term rates have stabilized after a hawkish repricing, supporting EUR via yield spreads. Markets expect little change from the July European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, focusing instead on September tightening and watching resistance near 1.1500.
Euro holds tight pre-ECB decision"The EUR remains quiet as it continues to consolidate within a remarkably tight range in the low-1.14s, entering Tuesday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% gain vs. the USD."
"Broader developments appear to be offering little in terms of movement for the EUR, and we note the absence of any material reaction to the release of stronger than expected ZEW investor sentiment data – a leading indicator for German industrial production activity (by 12-18 months)."
"Short-term rates markets are showing signs of stabilization ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, consolidating the recent hawkish repricing that has delivered fundamental support to the EUR via yield spreads."
"Markets are pricing little change for the July 23 decision, favoring September with 22bpts of tightening currently reflected in OIS with a cumulative 43bpts by December."
"Neutral – the EUR’s technicals are offering little in terms of momentum as the RSI shows signs of stabilization just below the neutral threshold at 50. Recent price action has been narrowly confined to a tight range roughly bound between 1.1380 and 1.1480, and we remain neutral absent a meaningful push toward 1.1500 and the 50 day MA at 1.1516."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver (XAG/USD) rallies to around $58.85 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 4.31% on the day. The white metal is supported by strong safe-haven demand as investors continue to monitor escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades higher after resuming its advance, as markets remain concerned about the impact of the conflict on global energy supplies. Although diplomatic efforts are still underway, with Tehran reportedly receiving a proposal through mediators for a 10-day cessation of strikes to revive negotiations, investors remain cautious as military exchanges between the two countries continue.
Typically, rising Oil prices increase inflation expectations, reinforcing the prospect of higher interest rates for longer and weighing on non-yielding assets such as Silver. However, the precious metal is currently defying that traditional relationship, with safe-haven demand proving strong enough to offset the headwind created by higher energy prices.
Analysts at ING noted that the foreign exchange market is increasingly reflecting developments in the Gulf, highlighting that geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for defensive assets. The bank added that the US Dollar (USD) has also benefited from the deteriorating security backdrop, although safe-haven flows remain broad enough to support precious metals as well.
On the monetary policy front, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to leave interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting. Investors will closely monitor the updated economic projections and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for fresh guidance on the timing of any future policy adjustments.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
EUR/USD edges lower on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1405, hovering near one-week lows.
Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected ZEW surveys provided little support to the Euro (EUR). Eurozone Economic Sentiment jumped to 23.4 in July from 9.5 in June, beating the forecast of 11.2. Germany’s Economic Sentiment Index climbed to 26.3 from 10.5, well above the market expectation of 18.
The US military carried out a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while Tehran targeted US military assets across the region. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.15, extending its gains for a fourth straight day.
Diplomatic efforts offer some hope of a pause in the fighting. Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving last month’s interim US-Iran agreement. However, continued military exchanges have disrupted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a rebound in Oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns.
As a result, traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Both central banks are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their upcoming policy meetings. However, further rate hikes remain possible if inflation pressures intensify.
Euro holds tight range as ECB repricing supports but fails to spark momentumAnalysts at Scotiabank observe that short-term rates markets “are showing signs of stabilization ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, consolidating the recent hawkish repricing that has delivered fundamental support to the EUR via yield spreads.”
In terms of policy expectations, Scotiabank highlights that “markets are pricing little change for the July 23 decision, favoring September with 22bpts of tightening currently reflected in OIS with a cumulative 43bpts by December.”
From a technical perspective, the bank’s stance remains “neutral – the EUR’s technicals are offering little in terms of momentum as the RSI shows signs of stabilization just below the neutral threshold at 50.” They add that “recent price action has been narrowly confined to a tight range roughly bound between 1.1380 and 1.1480,” and that they “remain neutral absent a meaningful push toward 1.1500 and the 50-day MA at 1.1516.”
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.41%0.28%0.19%-0.15%0.12%0.25%EUR-0.06%0.35%0.22%0.14%-0.18%0.06%0.20%GBP-0.41%-0.35%-0.11%-0.21%-0.53%-0.28%-0.15%JPY-0.28%-0.22%0.11%-0.08%-0.40%-0.17%-0.02%CAD-0.19%-0.14%0.21%0.08%-0.33%-0.08%0.06%AUD0.15%0.18%0.53%0.40%0.33%0.25%0.40%NZD-0.12%-0.06%0.28%0.17%0.08%-0.25%0.13%CHF-0.25%-0.20%0.15%0.02%-0.06%-0.40%-0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the sell-off in gilts and British Pound (GBP) has stabilized after Prime Minister Andy Burnham appointed John Healey as Chancellor and pledged to stick to fiscal rules. However, fiscal policy details may not be known until the October budget, and Haddad expects this uncertainty, alongside ongoing labor market slack, to limit relief rallies in gilts and GBP and prompt dovish Bank of England (BoE) repricing.
Fiscal stance and labor slack weigh"The sell-off in gilts and GBP stabilized after Prime Minister Andy Burnham picked John Healey – former Defense Secretary - as his Chancellor of the Exchequer. In parallel, Burnham stressed yesterday he will “stick to the fiscal rules…and use obviously any flexibility within them.”"
"Attention now turns to how Burnham plans to use that “flexibility” to fund spending. The details may not emerge until the October budget. Until then, we expect fiscal policy uncertainty to limit relief rallies in gilts and GBP."
"UK May labor market data was largely in line with consensus. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9% for a second straight month in May and the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio remained stuck at 0.4, below its estimated equilibrium level of 0.50. That is indicative of ongoing labor market slack."
"The swaps curve price in a full 25bps BoE rate hike to 4.00% in November and a total of 60bps of tightening in the next twelve months. That would leave the policy rate above the BoE’s estimated neutral range (2.00%-4.00%)."
"Restrictive monetary policy when the UK economy is operating well below potential raises the likelihood of a downward adjustment to BoE rate expectations against GBP."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
/ / Swiss Franc Technical Outlook: USD/CHF Breakout Pressure Builds at Major Resistance USD/CHF is testing pivotal resistance for a fifth consecutive week and a breakout here could fuel the next major leg of the advance.
21/07/2026
7/21/2026 2:45:00 PM
Swiss Franc Technical Outlook: USD/CHF Multi-Timeframe Analysis Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, examines the USD/CHF technical outlook as the Swiss franc approaches a critical long-term resistance zone. Using monthly, weekly, daily and four-hour charts, he explains the key breakout and support levels, momentum divergence, and why technical structure is likely to drive the pair ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Key USD/CHF Economic Data Releases
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Active Short-term Technical Charts Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
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The swing top at $4202.71 is inside that zone. And taking it out will break the pattern of consecutive lower lows. After this, the 50-day moving average at $4263.78 comes into focus and if tested, we may finally get to see how much conviction the bullish gold traders have.
What to Watch Gold is holding Tuesday’s bid despite oil rallying and yields pressing higher because the ceasefire proposal is keeping the diplomatic track alive. That is fragile. A tanker was already hit in the Strait of Hormuz and both sides are still striking. If the talks collapse and crude extends, the rate pressure returns and gold gives this back. If diplomacy holds and oil starts pulling back, September hike odds continue to drop and gold can keep building on the base.
The price action is developing a secondary higher bottom above long-term support. Gold is still inside a resistance zone and needs to clear the upper end with volume to open the path toward the 50-day average. That level is where the market finds out whether this recovery has real conviction or whether it is just a pause in the selling.
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So, all things being equal, while this is a nice bounce, it really hasn’t fundamentally changed much as far as technical analysis is concerned. We’re just seeing more of the same behavior. There are, more likely than not, going to be a lot of sellers just above waiting to get involved, so at the first signs of exhaustion, there will be people very concerned about holding onto silver, would be my estimate.
To the downside, the $50 level has been both support and resistance in the past, mainly resistance though. It has been the top of the market multiple times until recently, going all the way back to the 1970s and the Hunt brothers trying to corner the market. Because of that, I would anticipate a lot of noise in that area if we do start to fall apart.
Markets struggled to settle on a single narrative today as investors weighed conflicting geopolitical headlines alongside a range of regional developments. Reports that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran initially offered hope that last month’s Memorandum of Understanding could be revived. Those hopes were tempered, however, by market chatter that US President Donald Trump may reject the proposal, leaving traders reluctant to make large directional bets.
That uncertainty was enough to lift Brent crude back above $91 a barrel, helping Dollar edge higher alongside a modest rise in US Treasury yields. Still, the broader market reaction remained restrained. Without confirmation from either side, investors were unwilling to fully embrace either a de-escalation or renewed escalation scenario, leaving most major asset classes confined to relatively narrow ranges.
The stronger oil price nevertheless carries broader implications for foreign exchange. Rising energy costs risk feeding inflation expectations and keeping upward pressure on Treasury yields, a combination that has historically supported Dollar against Yen. With the US 10-year yield back above 4.6%, USD/JPY is once again approaching levels associated with the Yen’s weakest point in 40 years.
The timing is notable. Japanese authorities did not intervene during Monday’s holiday, despite the combination of closed domestic markets and thinner-than-usual liquidity providing an opportunity to catch speculative positioning off guard. With that window now behind them, market participants may increasingly test Tokyo’s tolerance for further Yen weakness if oil prices continue to rise and Treasury yields extend their advance.
Away from geopolitics, Sterling was under pressure as investors continued to digest Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s decision to name John Healey as Chancellor. Opinions were divided over the implications. Supporters argue the appointment signals a commitment to fiscal discipline and respect for bond markets, while critics believe it undermines assumptions that a fiscally conservative figure would restrain the government’s broader agenda. Until greater policy clarity emerges, confidence in UK assets may take time to recover.
Trade policy also stayed on the radar as US and Mexican officials prepared to begin a third round of bilateral talks aimed at revising the USMCA, following Washington’s decision earlier this month not to renew the regional trade agreement while simultaneously imposing fresh duties on Canada. Although the negotiations are unlikely to generate immediate market moves, they reinforce that North American trade policy remains an evolving source of uncertainty.
For the day so far, Australian Dollar outperformed major peers, followed by Euro and New Zealand Dollar. Sterling lagged behind all other major currencies, with Yen and Swiss Franc also weaker, while Dollar and Canadian Dollar traded in the middle of the performance table.
AUD/USD Breaks Higher, but Jobs Data Will Decide Whether Rally Lasts AUD/USD climbed to a four-week high as broad US Dollar weakness, improving risk sentiment and a rally in copper prices combined to lift the Australian Dollar. However, the move has so far been driven largely by external factors rather than domestic fundamentals. Attention is now firmly on Australia’s June employment report, which is expected to play a decisive role in shaping expectations for an August RBA rate hike and determining whether the breakout can develop into a sustained rally. Read More.
USD/CAD Climbs as Trump Expands Tariffs Beyond USMCA Protections USD/CAD advanced after the Trump administration announced a new round of 50% tariffs on selected Canadian imports, but the market reaction reflected more than the immediate trade impact. Investors viewed the measures as further evidence that Washington is increasingly willing to bypass USMCA protections by invoking alternative legal authorities, reinforcing the perception that US-Canada trade tensions are becoming structural. While Canada’s response has so far remained measured, the risk of reciprocal tariffs could deepen the economic headwind for Canada and keep pressure on the Canadian Dollar. Read More.
German ZEW Sentiment Jumps to One-Year High as Recovery Hopes Strengthen German investor confidence strengthened sharply in July, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index climbing to its highest level in five months as optimism over exports, domestic demand and economic reforms continued to build. While assessments of current conditions remain weak, they also improved modestly, suggesting the recovery is gradually broadening. The survey also showed confidence improving across the Eurozone, although ZEW warned that the Iran conflict and elevated oil prices remain significant risks to the region’s economic outlook. Read More.
UK Wage Growth Holds Steady as Payroll Employment Continues to Weaken The latest UK labour market report reinforced the picture of a gradual cooling rather than a sharp slowdown. Payroll employment continued to soften, while wage growth remained stable at its weakest pace since 2020. Although the unemployment rate held steady and claimant growth came in well below expectations, moderating earnings should provide further reassurance to the Bank of England that domestic inflation pressures are easing. Read More.
New Zealand CPI Hits 4.1% as Fuel Costs Reinforce RBNZ Challenge New Zealand’s annual inflation accelerated to 4.1% in the second quarter as higher petrol and fuel prices drove the strongest increase in consumer prices. While the headline reading came in slightly above the RBNZ’s own forecast, the details showed imported inflation remained the primary driver, with tradeable inflation reaching 4.9% compared with 3.4% for non-tradeable inflation. The report keeps pressure on the RBNZ to remain vigilant, but policymakers will be focused on whether higher energy costs begin spilling over into broader domestic inflation before deciding whether further tightening is needed. Read More.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook USD/JPY is still staying below 162.83 despite today’s rally. Intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidations from 162.83 could extend with another fall. But in that case, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 162.83 at 159.84. On the upside, firm break of 162.83 will extend the larger up trend to 164.34 projection level.
In the bigger picture, rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is seen as another rising leg of the long term up trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 155.01 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
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AUD/USD is attempting to register a fourth consecutive weekly advance after rebounding more than 2% from the June lows, bringing the pair back into a major technical inflection zone. The recovery is now testing the upper bounds of a multi-month downtrend, where multiple resistance levels converge.
Gold prices remain under pressure from elevated US bond yields, but Goldman Sachs believes robust central bank demand should prevent any sustained sell-off, providing a solid floor for the precious metal despite near-term headwinds.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,300 on Tuesday after retreating from recent highs, as stronger US economic data and higher Treasury yields weighed on investor demand.
Despite the recent pullback, Goldman Sachs remains constructive on the longer-term outlook, arguing that official sector buying continues to underpin the market.
Image: Gold price in US Dollars - 7 day chart Goldman Sachs notes that central banks purchased another 31 tonnes of gold in May, well above the long-run monthly average and consistent with the steady accumulation seen over the past three years.
"Strong central bank buying in May provides a price floor."
The bank believes official-sector demand has fundamentally changed the gold market by reducing the likelihood of deep and prolonged corrections.
"We continue to expect structurally strong central bank demand."
Goldman Sachs acknowledges that higher real interest rates could continue to generate temporary selling pressure, particularly through exchange-traded funds and speculative positioning.
"Rates pressure is likely to be temporary."
The bank argues that while higher yields have historically weighed on gold, central bank buying is now providing an increasingly important offset.
"Official sector purchases should cushion downside risks."
Image: XAU/USD 1 year chart Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: Goldman Sachs Still Sees Longer-Term Upside Goldman Sachs expects near-term volatility to persist while markets assess the outlook for US interest rates.
However, the bank believes any weakness driven by higher yields should prove temporary because central bank demand remains exceptionally strong.
"We expect continued robust official-sector buying to underpin prices."
For gold investors, Goldman Sachs argues that the current environment differs markedly from previous periods of rising yields, with central bank diversification creating a durable source of demand that should continue to support gold over the medium term.
Gold rose around 1.5% on Tuesday as fresh signals of diplomatic action to de-escalate US-Iran war cooled inflation risks and expected to ease pressure on the US central bank.
Quick change in sentiment made the yellow metal more attractive to investors, with the latest bounce from very significant $4000 support zone (contained several attacks in past one month) has so far retraced 50% of $4203/$3960 bear-leg and eased immediate downside risk.
Improving technical picture (price broke above 10 and 20 DMAs ($4050 and $4062 respectively and 14-d momentum rises into positive territory) supports the action, although recent gains are still insufficient to generate signal of direction change.
The price may extend gains if favorable fundamentals persist, with break through $4110 (Fibo 61.8%) and $4145 (Fibo 76.4%) to further strengthen near-term structure and expose upper breakpoint at $4203 (recovery top / near-term range ceiling) violation of which to generate initial reversal signal.
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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
