Shares of Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) closed most recently at almost $67.62, capping a brutal stretch that saw the stock fall 37.4% over the past month and 16.6% in the last week alone. The slide has dragged Rocket Lab into the red year to date, down 3.1%, despite still being up 31.7% over one year. Reddit sentiment scores tracked the collapse almost tick for tick, swinging from a peak of 85 around the Iridium acquisition announcement to lows of 18 to 24 in mid-July.
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Reddit Sentiment Trend The catalyst mix is unusual. Rocket Lab announced a definitive deal to acquire Iridium Communications at $54 per share for roughly $8 billion in enterprise value, a transformative bet on vertical integration. Yet dilution fears, a Neutron debut pushed to Q4 2026, and CEO Peter Beck’s pre-planned Rule 10b5-1 sales across July 6 through 8 at prices from roughly $82 to $102 all landed in a market already rotating out of space names.
Reddit Splits Between Dip Buyers and Loss Porn Discussion volume surged. The dip-buying debate on r/stocks pitting Rocket Lab against AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) pulled in 773 upvotes and 350 comments at a 93% upvote ratio, signaling serious retail engagement. Meanwhile r/wallstreetbets filled with loss confessions, including one 19-year-old who wrote:
“I fell in love with volatility, quick gains and wistful thinking.”
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Retail bulls point to concrete wins:
Q1 revenue of about $200 million, up 64% year over year, with a record 38% GAAP gross margin Backlog of $2.2 billion and 31 new Electron/HASTE contracts signed in Q1, more than all of 2025 Selection for the Space-Based Interceptor program under Golden Dome, alongside Raytheon One r/investing user framed the pullback plainly:
“It’s starting to feel a little over-sold, and maybe this is a good entry point for a long term hold.”
Rocket Lab vs. the Space Sector Reset Both Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are off more than 40% from May highs, but Rocket Lab trades at roughly 31x 2027 revenue versus 42x for AST SpaceMobile, with a diversified launch, systems, and defense mix rather than a single-technology bet. For satellite communications context, Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) remains the benchmark cash-flow-positive operator in the sector.
What Rocket Lab Investors Should Watch [price_scenario symbol=“RKLB”]
The Neutron debut later this year is the swing factor. A clean first flight validates the SpaceX challenger thesis; another tank test failure resets the timeline again. The split between r/stocks fundamental buyers and r/wallstreetbets pain trades is the sentiment story worth tracking.
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Tokenized stocks just crossed a threshold that would have seemed ambitious two years ago. The sector hit a record market cap of $2.3 billion around mid-July 2026, according to data from Token Terminal, nearly doubling since March 2026 when the total first cleared $1 billion.
Who’s building it and where it lives Ethereum leads the chain-level race with 34% of tokenized stock market share, followed closely by BNB Chain at 30% and Solana at 23%.
On the issuer side, Ondo Finance sits at the top with $955 million in onchain equities, making it by far the largest single player in the space. Kraken’s xStocks product holds $507 million, and Binance’s bStocks rounds out the top three at $334 million.
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Kraken’s xStocks launched in April 2025, and cumulative trading volume on the platform exceeded $25 billion within eight months of launch.
Solana’s tokenized stock market cap reached $539 million by June 2026, and trading volumes on the network saw a sixfold increase totaling $4.9 billion in the first half of 2026 compared to the second half of 2025.
Why this is bigger than the numbers suggest Tokenized stocks currently represent about 5.5% of the overall tokenized real-world asset market.
The core value proposition here is access. Tokenized stocks enable fractional ownership, run on blockchains that operate around the clock, and are accessible to non-U.S. investors who historically faced the highest barriers.
NYSE’s partnership with Securitize is working to expand tokenized equity offerings and enable 24/7 trading, which would be a structural change from the current model of market hours constrained by exchange operating times.
What this means for investors Liquidity is improving as platforms scale, but it is still nowhere near the depth of conventional exchanges. Ondo Finance, Kraken, and Binance each have different structures for how underlying shares are held, custodied, and redeemable, and those structural differences carry different risk profiles.
Ondo Finance’s lead comes partly from its integration with DeFi protocols, meaning tokenized stocks can be used as collateral, lent out, or traded in automated markets, not just held.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
LayerZero (ZRO) price is down roughly 3% on Monday, extending its 9% decline from last week. The upcoming monthly token unlock of 25.71 million ZRO is scheduled for this Monday, which could further increase downside pressure. Retail interest is building ahead of the token unlock, with trading volume up over 500%, while easing funding rates imply a bearish bias.
ZRO monthly token unlock lifts retail interestLayerZero is gaining retail interest in the derivatives market ahead of its July monthly token unlock. Tokenomist data shows that 4.60% of the total ZRO supply, or 25.71 million tokens, will be unlocked on Monday, benefiting strategic partners and core contributors. In addition, 1.67 million, or 0.30% of released supply, will be bought back, projecting the core team’s confidence in the project.
On the retail front, LayerZero derivatives witness a surge in traders’ interest. CoinGlass data show that ZRO futures trading volume is up 552% in 24 hours to $248.65 million, with Open Interest (OI) up 4.52% to $80.87 million, implying a positional buildup. However, the funding rate easing to 0.0061% from 0.0121% the previous day suggests the traders' demand is shifting away from long positions.
Taken together, the easing of bullish bias in the derivatives market is considered a typical response to an upcoming token unlock, as traders anticipate the release of supply as potential selling pressure.
On the downside, the key structural floor is the Fibonacci anchor around $0.73, where a break lower would reinforce the prevailing bearish trend and expose fresh lows in the broader cycle.
ZRO token unlock data. Source: Tokenomist
ZRO derivatives data. Source: CoinGlassWill ZRO prices extend its decline?LayerZero maintains a near-term bearish bias as price extends a declining trend below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.9575, following a death cross with the 200-day EMA on April 26.. The descending moving averages keeps the broader downtrend intact, with rallies likely to face supply into these overhead barriers.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36 points to firm bearish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal line descend in the negative territory, hinting that downside pressure persists.
On the downside, the key structural floor around $0.7340, where a break lower would reinforce the prevailing bearish trend and expose fresh lows in the broader cycle. The 127.2% Fibonacci extension level at $0.5322, measured from $2.3930 to $0.7340, could serve as the next support level, suggesting a 25% downside potential.
ZRO/USDT daily price chart.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 23.6% retracement level at $0.9452, close to 50-day EMA around $0.9571, and a daily close above this zone would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way toward the 50% retracement level at $1.3253.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
LayerZero is about to hand a large chunk of ZRO tokens to its insiders, and the market is watching closely. On July 20, 2026, roughly 25.71 million ZRO tokens will unlock, carrying a combined value of approximately $19.98 million at current prices.
Who gets what The unlock splits fairly neatly between two groups. Strategic Partners receive approximately 13 million ZRO tokens, worth around $10.55 million at today’s prices. Core Contributors take home roughly 10.63 million ZRO tokens, valued at approximately $8.62 million.
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The 25.71 million tokens represent about 2.36% of ZRO’s total supply of 1 billion tokens. As a share of circulating supply, where roughly 55 to 58% has already been released, this unlock accounts for approximately 4.6% of what’s currently in the market.
The vesting schedule that governs this release follows a three-year structure with a one-year cliff, a design that dates back to LayerZero’s token generation event in June 2024, which also included a community airdrop.
What LayerZero has been building LayerZero is an omnichain interoperability protocol that lets different blockchains communicate with each other. In February 2026, LayerZero launched its “Zero” blockchain, a network specifically aimed at institutional clients. The project raised $318.3 million in total funding, and the institutional pivot is backed by Citadel Securities.
What this means for ZRO investors ZRO is currently trading in the range of $0.79 to $0.81. What traders should watch is the on-chain behavior in the days following July 20. If the unlocked wallet addresses associated with strategic partners begin moving tokens to centralized exchanges in volume, that’s a concrete signal of distribution pressure. If the tokens sit largely unmoved, that tells a different story about insider conviction.
For retail holders, a $10.55 million allocation to strategic partners entering the market over days or weeks is unlikely to cause a catastrophic price decline on its own, but it adds to the supply side of the equation. Historical analysis has suggested the price impact of such unlock events has been limited.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Atlanta, Georgia, July 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Outdoor Holding Company (NASDAQ: POWW/POWWP) (“Outdoors Online,” “we,” “us.” “our” or the “Company”), the owner of GunBroker.com, the largest online marketplace for firearms, hunting and related products, announced that it will release financial results for its first quarter of its 2027 fiscal year premarket on August 10, 2026.
Management will host a conference call at 9:00 AM ET on August 10, 2026 to review financial results and provide an update on corporate developments. Following management’s formal remarks there will be a question-and-answer session.
The conference call will primarily be available through a live webcast at the following link: https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/378705617, which is also available through the Company’s website. The recording of the webcast will be posted on the Company’s website after the call is completed.
Those without internet access may dial in by calling (855) 761-5600 (domestic) or 1(646) 307-1097 (international). Please join at least 5-10 minutes prior to the scheduled start and follow the operator’s instructions. When requested, please ask for the “Outdoor Holding Company Conference Call” or reference Conference ID #: 8625467
About Outdoor Holding Company
With its corporate offices now headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Outdoor Holding Company is a publicly traded corporation that owns and operates subsidiaries serving outdoor enthusiasts, including GunBroker.
About GunBroker
GunBroker.com is the largest online marketplace dedicated to firearms, hunting, shooting and related products. Aside from merchandise bearing its logo, GunBroker currently sells none of the items listed on its website. Third-party sellers list items on the site and Federal and state laws govern the sale of firearms and other restricted items. Ownership policies and regulations are followed using licensed firearms dealers as transfer agents. Launched in 1999, the GunBroker.com site is an informative, secure and safe way to buy and sell firearms, ammunition, air guns, archery equipment, knives and swords, firearms accessories and hunting/shooting gear online. GunBroker promotes responsible ownership of firearms. For more information, please visit: www.gunbroker.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This document contains certain “forward-looking statements”. All statements other than statements of historical fact are “forward-looking statements” for purposes of federal and state securities laws, including, but not limited to, any projections of earnings, revenue or other financial items; any statements of the plans, strategies, goals and objectives of management for future operations; any statements concerning proposed new products and services or developments thereof; any statements regarding future economic conditions or performance; any statements or belief; and any statements of assumptions underlying any of the foregoing.
Forward looking statements may include the words “may,” “could,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue,” “believe,” “expect” or “anticipate” or other similar words, or the negative thereof. These forward-looking statements present our estimates and assumptions only as of the date of this report. Accordingly, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. We do not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect the impact of circumstances or events that arise after the dates they are made. You should, however, consult further disclosures and risk factors we include in Annual Reports on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, and Current Reports filed on Form 8-K.
FARNBOROUGH, England--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Hexcel Corporation (NYSE: HXL), a global leader in advanced lightweight composites technology, announced a series of new and extended long-term agreements with The Boeing Company, reinforcing the companies' collaboration across commercial, defense and space programs. “These agreements reflect the strength of our partnership with Boeing and our shared commitment to advancing composite technology in aerospace applications,” said Lyndon Smith, President, Amer.
Bessemer Group Inc. lifted its stake in shares of Signet Jewelers Limited (NYSE:SIG – Free Report) by 18.5% during the first quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 76,274 shares of the company’s stock after purchasing an additional 11,926 shares during the quarter. Bessemer Group Inc. owned about 0.19% of Signet Jewelers worth $6,456,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
A number of other institutional investors and hedge funds also recently made changes to their positions in the stock. UBS Group AG boosted its holdings in Signet Jewelers by 185.4% in the fourth quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 545,140 shares of the company’s stock worth $45,181,000 after acquiring an additional 354,108 shares in the last quarter. M&T Bank Corp bought a new stake in shares of Signet Jewelers during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $1,053,000. Moody Aldrich Partners LLC bought a new stake in shares of Signet Jewelers during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $3,398,000. Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund raised its position in shares of Signet Jewelers by 28.3% during the first quarter. Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund now owns 100,339 shares of the company’s stock worth $8,493,000 after purchasing an additional 22,120 shares during the period. Finally, Ruffer LLP acquired a new position in shares of Signet Jewelers during the fourth quarter worth approximately $15,372,000.
Analysts Set New Price Targets SIG has been the topic of a number of recent research reports. UBS Group cut their target price on Signet Jewelers from $126.00 to $121.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Friday, May 22nd. Citigroup upped their price objective on shares of Signet Jewelers from $110.00 to $120.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Wednesday, June 3rd. Weiss Ratings restated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Signet Jewelers in a report on Monday, July 6th. Royal Bank Of Canada raised shares of Signet Jewelers to a “hold” rating in a research note on Monday, March 30th. Finally, Stephens reiterated an “overweight” rating and set a $130.00 price objective on shares of Signet Jewelers in a report on Friday, May 29th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have issued a Buy rating and six have issued a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, Signet Jewelers has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $112.88.
Get Our Latest Stock Analysis on SIG
Signet Jewelers Stock Down 0.1% Shares of NYSE:SIG opened at $91.57 on Monday. The stock has a market cap of $3.60 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.84, a PEG ratio of 0.96 and a beta of 1.15. Signet Jewelers Limited has a 12-month low of $71.61 and a 12-month high of $110.20. The business’s 50 day moving average is $84.44 and its 200 day moving average is $88.31.
Signet Jewelers (NYSE:SIG – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, June 2nd. The company reported $1.56 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $1.38 by $0.18. Signet Jewelers had a return on equity of 22.54% and a net margin of 4.29%.The business had revenue of $1.55 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.55 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company posted $1.18 earnings per share. Signet Jewelers’s revenue was up .8% compared to the same quarter last year. Signet Jewelers has set its FY 2027 guidance at 9.200-11.000 EPS. As a group, equities research analysts expect that Signet Jewelers Limited will post 10.57 earnings per share for the current year.
Signet Jewelers Announces Dividend The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, August 21st. Stockholders of record on Friday, July 24th will be issued a $0.35 dividend. The ex-dividend date is Friday, July 24th. This represents a $1.40 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 1.5%. Signet Jewelers’s dividend payout ratio is currently 13.46%.
About Signet Jewelers (Free Report)
Signet Jewelers Ltd is the world’s largest retailer of diamond jewelry, operating a diversified network of retail stores across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Ireland. Its portfolio includes well-established banners such as Kay Jewelers, Zales, Jared The Galleria of Jewelry, H.Samuel, Ernest Jones, Peoples and Piercing Pagoda, offering customers a range of shopping environments from suburban malls to high-street locations.
The company’s product assortment encompasses engagement rings, wedding bands, fine fashion jewelry and timepieces, complemented by services including jewelry cleaning, repairs, appraisals and extended care plans.
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The GBP/USD pair bounced from recent lows near 1.3450, maintaining an underlying three-week winning streak despite recent consecutive daily losses Measured investor optimism surrounding newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham and structural fiscal prudence are acting as strong tailwinds for sterling A resilient UK economy and a softening US dollar, weighed down by expected Federal Reserve policy pauses, offer immediate dip-buying opportunities for bulls The British pound has shown resilience in foreign exchange markets, maintaining a three-week winning streak despite recent losses. The GBP/USD pair has moved back upward today, recovering from lows near 1.3450 to around 1.3468.
The British pound has demonstrated notable resilience in foreign exchange markets. Despite recording losses in the last two trading sessions, it maintains a three-week winning streak.
So what is actually holding this momentum together, and does it point to something durable, or just a currency pair catching its breath?
Politics Has Done a Lot of the Heavy Lifting Sterling’s strength mostly comes from domestic politics, not anything happening in Washington. Three weeks ago, then-Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned. Traders had been pricing in a hefty political risk premium since talk of instability began, but as that uncertainty eased, the pound quietly clawed back its losses.
Andy Burnham took over as the UK’s seventh Prime Minister in a decade this Monday. Markets expect him to appoint a fiscally conservative chancellor, a move that’s helped keep sterling well supported. Less political noise, simply put, means more room for the currency to run.
The financial world expects the new administration to stick to a fiscally prudent path. This has really boosted confidence in the currency. The minor profit-taking late last week was just a healthy pause as traders braced for the official transition.
Macroeconomic Resilience and a Faltering Dollar Sterling’s gains didn’t happen in a vacuum. A softer US dollar played a part too. Doubts about how fast the Federal Reserve will tighten, along with a disappointing June Nonfarm Payrolls report, have periodically weighed on the greenback and given cable room to climb.
But the dollar hasn’t been a one-way loser. Escalating US-Iran tensions, including a ninth straight night of US strikes and retaliatory attacks from Iran over the weekend, have kept some safe-haven demand for the dollar alive. Rising oil prices, linked to those tensions, have also fed inflation worries and revived bets on at least one more Fed rate hike this year.
What Does This Say About the Near-Term Outlook? The current trend favors the pound, but the situation is not entirely one-sided. The GBP/USD remains below its early July high, indicating that the dollar could strengthen, particularly if geopolitical risks increase.
This week’s calendar could be the real decider. UK employment data comes out Tuesday, with inflation figures following on Wednesday. Either report could sway the Bank of England’s next move and the pound’s trajectory.
Is There an Opportunity Here? For short-term forex traders, the current market presents a clear strategy. Sterling is expected to perform well as long as domestic politics remain stable. However, this strategy requires careful risk management due to the dollar’s sensitivity to Middle East developments and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Those following monitoring markets may find opportunities in short-term trading, especially around significant economic data releases. Longer-term investors might consider the pound’s resilience as a sign of underlying value, particularly if the UK economy shows broader stabilization.
What is the near-term outlook for sterling?
The near-term outlook for sterling appears constructive, with trading likely to remain within a range. Upside potential may emerge if UK economic data proves resilient leading up to Bank of England decisions.
Are there opportunities in current GBP strength?
Yes, for momentum traders around data events. Longer-term investors could see potential if the UK recovery continues, especially if the US dollar faces downward pressure.
What could determine the pound’s direction this week?
This week, the direction of the pound could be influenced by UK employment data on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday.
Hyperliquid has announced that its HIP-4 outcome markets will support permissionless deployment in an upcoming upgrade, according to The Block. This development will allow market creators to launch their own markets without prior approval, contingent upon a staking requirement of 1,000,000 HYPE tokens. The move follows the launch of HIP-4 on May 2, 2026, which introduced collateralized binary contracts settling in USDH with zero fees for opening positions. Initially, deployment was limited to canonical markets curated and settled by validators, but the upcoming Phase 2 upgrade will expand this capability to a wider user base. This strategic move is seen as part of Hyperliquid’s efforts to enhance its prediction market infrastructure and compete with established platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
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Key Takeaways Hyperliquid’s announcement of permissionless deployment for HIP-4 markets appears to suggest potential for increased market activity. The requirement of staking 1,000,000 HYPE tokens per market slot may indicate a barrier to entry for some creators, but ensures system integrity. Market pricing suggests participants view the development as supportive of Hyperliquid’s price potentially reaching higher targets by the end of 2026. What to Watch Observers should monitor developments around the Phase 2 upgrade’s implementation, as successful execution could further bolster Hyperliquid’s competitive positioning. The market’s reaction to this upgrade, alongside any potential strategic partnerships or increased volumes, will be key indicators of Hyperliquid’s future valuation trajectory. Additionally, watch for any regulatory responses or security concerns that may arise, as these could significantly impact market sentiment and pricing.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 29% — — View market → January 1 2027 6.1% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 51.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.8% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market →
Hyperliquid (@HyperliquidX) has unveiled HIP-4, a proposal to bring permissionless Outcome Markets to the protocol in a future network upgrade. The feature is set to launch on testnet first before any mainnet deployment.
How the Market Structure Works Under the proposal, anyone wishing to deploy a market must stake 500,000 $HYPE tokens. Slashing penalties apply for unclear market definitions or incorrect settlement, creating a financial incentive for deployers to maintain quality standards. Builders can deploy permissionless markets by staking HYPE, with slashable stakes burned if rules are violated. Validators will approve standardized templates, and deployers can earn up to a 50% share of trading fees generated by their markets.
HIP-4 introduces binary outcome contracts that settle to 0 or 1, allowing traders to speculate on events such as CPI releases or Bitcoin price levels without leverage or liquidations. Positions are fully collateralized in USDH, Hyperliquid's native stablecoin, and carry no liquidation risk. Unlike standalone prediction platforms, HIP-4 contracts operate inside the same account and execution engine as Hyperliquid's spot and perpetual futures markets, with YES and NO orders combined into a single shared order book.
A Strategic Bet on Prediction Markets Hyperliquid argues that prediction markets offer far more tradable events than spot or perpetual markets, making them a key long-term growth opportunity. The development was initiated in response to what the team described as "extensive user demand" for both prediction markets and options-style derivatives.
Traditional financial markets are largely dominated by products with non-linear payoffs, including options, CDS, and structured products. A huge portion of this market surface has so far been absent or barely represented in on-chain finance. HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's attempt to close that gap.
The rollout follows a phased approach. Phase 1 covers the testnet launch, Phase 2 brings mainnet deployment with a limited set of curated markets settled using objective data sources, and Phase 3 would open the infrastructure to permissionless deployment depending on the success of earlier phases.
Outcome markets require reliable settlement mechanisms, and the transition to permissionless deployment introduces questions about market quality and potential manipulation in thinly traded contracts. Builder curation in Phase 1 mitigates this, but Phase 2 will test the protocol's governance and oracle infrastructure.
Sources:
CoinDesk: Hyperliquid HIP-4 proposal adds outcome-based trading
OAK Research: What is HIP-4 and how do Hyperliquid outcome markets work?
Bitcoin.com News: Hyperliquid launches HIP-4 with zero-fee outcome markets
Spot gold rallied 20 USD in the short term, international crude oil prices moved lower, and tensions in the Middle East have eased.
According to Bitget market data, spot gold rallied $20 in the short term, currently trading at $4,039.58 per ounce. Both U.S. WTI and Brent crude oil fell by over $1 in the short term: WTI crude oil broke below $81 per barrel, down 1.69% on the day, while Brent crude oil dropped 1.00% on the day, currently at $85.33 per barrel. On the news front, a senior Iranian source stated that mediators have proposed a 10-day pause in strikes to explore ways to revive the temporary agreement between Iran and the U.S.
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The three major U.S. stock index futures advanced, with Nasdaq 100 Index futures surging more than 1%.
According to Bit.com market data, U.S. stock index futures of the three major benchmarks rose: Nasdaq 100 futures gained more than 1%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.57%, and Dow Jones futures increased 0.43%. On the news front, a senior Iranian source stated that mediators have proposed a 10-day pause in strikes to explore ways to revive the temporary agreement between Iran and the United States. This may signal a short-term de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, driving a rebound in risk markets.
20 minutes ago
WTI and Brent crude oil continue to slump, with both down over 2% intraday.
According to Bitget market data, both US and Brent crude oil continue to slump. Brent crude has fallen below $85 per barrel, down more than 2% on the day; WTI crude oil dropped over $2 intraday, currently trading at $80.29 per barrel, a 2.5% decline.
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SemiAnalysis: Kimi K3 Ranks Third Globally, Could Reveal Hidden Profit Margins of OpenAI and Anthropic
SemiAnalysis analysts Jordan Nanos and Max Kan recently analyzed Kimi K3, the model developed by Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI, concluding that it outperforms Google Gemini in comprehensive benchmark tests. This not only reflects the narrowing gap between Chinese and U.S. AI models but also offers new insights into the business models of closed-source AI firms like Anthropic and OpenAI. According to SemiAnalysis’s overall assessment, Kimi K3 currently ranks third globally, trailing only Fable 5 and GPT-5.6, and surpassing Google Gemini. The analysts noted that while this result does not signal major issues for Google’s AI business, Kimi K3’s publicly disclosed parameter count, performance, and pricing provide a reference for external estimates of the economic value of closed-source models. Kimi K3 has 2.8 trillion parameters, far exceeding most open-source models. Jordan Nanos stated that a model of this size cannot be deployed on a single NVIDIA B200 GPU, requiring higher-spec hardware such as GB300, B300-class systems, or AMD MI355X. Based on this, he speculated that Anthropic and OpenAI’s flagship closed-source models likely operate at a similar parameter scale, rather than holding an order-of-magnitude advantage. In terms of business models, Kimi K3’s launch price is close to Anthropic’s Sonnet series: input pricing is approximately $3 per million tokens, and output pricing is around $15 per million tokens, a roughly threefold increase over the previous Kimi generation. Max Kan argued that if Moonshot AI is not operating at a long-term loss, then Anthropic and OpenAI charging higher prices for models of comparable size suggests their API business may have high profit margins. “Selling API tokens could be more profitable than SaaS,” he said. However, the two analysts emphasized that these judgments are not based on the AI companies’ public financial data, but rather on reverse inference drawn from Kimi K3’s parameters, pricing, and performance.
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Goldman Sachs warns that inflationary pressures are spreading across the US, with Fed Chair Walsh facing mounting pressure to raise interest rates.
Goldman Sachs’ latest research report shows that U.S. inflationary pressure is spreading from a narrow set of sectors to a broader range of areas. While current inflation levels have not yet hit their 2022 peak, the expanding scope of price increases is posing greater challenges to the Federal Reserve’s policy efforts. Goldman Sachs economist Jessica Rindels analyzed the extent of inflation spread using the six-month annualized change rate of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key metric closely watched by the Fed. The data shows that, compared to the average inflation level between 1990 and 2019, the pressure index for inflation categories exceeding 3% has reached around 6, while it stood at 10 during the 2022 inflation peak. The report points out that sectors such as audio-visual equipment, financial services, healthcare, and transportation have become key drivers of current price increases. Meanwhile, housing rent inflation, which carries a significant weight in the PCE index, is projected to fall below 3% in the fourth quarter of this year, potentially serving as a key factor easing inflationary pressure. Goldman Sachs’ analysis aligns with recent concerns from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about the "broadening of inflation". Warsh stated that preventing price hikes from spreading to more sectors of the economy is a key task for the Federal Reserve. However, unlike former Chair Jerome Powell’s relatively clear policy communication style, Warsh has so far refused to provide specific interest rate path guidance. Jeremy Schwartz, senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, noted that the Fed is reducing forward guidance to the market, and this policy uncertainty has heightened concerns on Wall Street. Meanwhile, hawkish voices within the Fed are growing. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has expressed support for moderate interest rate hikes, arguing that the current economic resilience is inconsistent with inflation risks.
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Iranian sources: Mediators have proposed a 10-day pause on strikes to seek ways to restore the temporary agreement between Iran and the United States.
Senior Iranian sources said the mediator has proposed a 10-day pause in strikes to find ways to revive the interim agreement between Iran and the U.S. (Jinshi)
Hyperliquid has announced plans to introduce permissionless deployment for HIP-4 outcome markets, with the feature set to roll out on testnet before a later mainnet release.
Summary
Hyperliquid plans to introduce permissionless deployment for HIP 4 outcome markets, starting on testnet before a mainnet rollout. Market deployers will need to stake 500,000 HYPE and can face slashing for incorrect or delayed market settlements. The proposal follows HIP 4’s launch in May, with prediction markets generating about $100 million in trading volume during the first month. Hyperliquid said in a Sunday Telegram announcement that the upgrade is intended to support the expansion of outcome markets, where the number of possible tradeable events is too large for validators alone to manage.
Under the proposed system, validators will vote on standardized outcome templates that define how markets should be structured. Those templates will be stored and enforced onchain, allowing anyone to deploy new markets using approved formats instead of requiring validator approval for every listing.
Once a template is approved, deployers will create individual markets and will be responsible for defining and settling them according to the template’s rules. Hyperliquid said validator-created “canonical markets” will continue to exist but are expected to remain rare, with fewer than 10 such outcomes or questions deployed each year through validator votes.
Deployers face staking and settlement requirements To participate, HIP-4 deployers will need to stake 500,000 HYPE. Hyperliquid said validators can partially or fully slash that stake if markets are poorly defined, are settled incorrectly, or remain unresolved for more than one week.
Similar to the network’s HIP-3 framework, the stake will remain locked for six months, and deployers must settle every outstanding market before they can withdraw it.
Each deployer will initially receive capacity for 100 outcomes, equivalent to 200 outcome tokens. Multi-outcome markets will use more of that allocation, while settled markets will release capacity for future deployments. Hyperliquid also said it plans to introduce an auction system that will allow deployers to increase their allocation.
Market creators will be allowed to charge fees of up to 50% on their own markets. Hyperliquid noted that the proposal remains preliminary and could change after community feedback.
The latest proposal builds on Hyperliquid’s rollout of HIP-4 in May, when the network introduced prediction markets to its high-performance blockchain. According to Hyperliquid, the feature generated roughly $100 million in trading volume during its first month.
The update comes as Hyperliquid continues to gain attention across both decentralized and traditional finance. Earlier this month, Bitwise added HYPE to its Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) with an allocation of about 0.95%, placing the token alongside the largest crypto assets in a diversified index fund.
The inclusion followed Hyperliquid’s reported $1.34 trillion in trading volume and $320 million in revenue during the first half of 2026, according to Bitwise’s latest index update and previous reporting.
Hyperliquid has officially announced permissionless deployment for its HIP-4 outcome markets in a future upgrade. This will allow anyone to launch prediction markets using validator-approved templates, offering 50% fee revenue to deployers.
Hyperliquid Unveils Permissionless Deployment in Upgrade for HIP-4 Prediction Markets Hyperliquid will roll out permissionless deployment support for HIP-4 prediction markets in a future upgrade. This will launch first on testnet and then on mainnet.
“The technology for outcome markets required sufficient battle testing in a validator-deployed setting before scaling to permissionless deployment,” Hyperliquid added.
To maintain quality and curb spam, deployers will rely on validator-approved prediction market templates. Prediction market deployers are required to stake 500k HYPE tokens that can be slashed only via validator votes in case of bad settlements and poorly defined markets.
Other requirements include a 6-month stake-locking period and settling all markets to unstake. Deployers can earn up to 50% of trading fees from prediction markets, with no restrictions on launching identical markets to boost competition.
Permissionless deployment is important for the growth of outcome markets. The number of prediction market events even exceeds the underlying assets for perps and spot tokenization.
Hyperliquid has also announced follow-up features as HIP-4 prediction markets grew. These include fee configurability and an auction mechanism.
Will HYPE Repeat Historical Rally? HYPE rallied almost 100% after Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 in May this year. It was a joint collaborative effort that included the Kalshi prediction market, allowing users to trade non-linear, fixed-range contracts and bounded options without leverage or liquidation risk.
HYPE price continued to trade range-bound near $60, with a 24-hour low and high of $59.89 and $61.56, respectively. Trading volume also remained lower at 2% in the last 24 hours.
As CoinGape reported earlier, Hyperliquid price tumbled 12% as a16z-linked wallet started selling HYPE holdings. Despite this, Hyperliquid has captured a record 9.5% of aggregate perpetual futures open interest compared with centralized exchanges.
CoinGlass data showed mixed sentiment in the derivatives market. The total HYPE futures open interest dropped more than 2% to $1.36 billion in the last 24 hours. However, futures OI on Hyperliquid, Binance, and Bybit climbed in the last few hours.
For investors seeking to capitalize on this growing sector, exploring the top-rated crypto prediction markets can help identify platforms with the deepest liquidity and lowest fee structures.
Despite the announcement, HYPE's price showed little immediate reaction, suggesting traders remain focused on broader market conditions.
Hyperliquid announced on July 20 that its upcoming HIP-4 network upgrade will allow permissionless deployment of prediction markets.
The feature, which will launch on testnet before hitting the mainnet, will expand who can create outcome markets while introducing validator-approved templates and a staking system meant to keep those markets clearly defined and properly settled.
How HIP-4 Deployment Will Work Outcome markets on Hyperliquid have so far only been deployed by validators, but the protocol is looking to change that. According to a post on Hyperliquid’s Telegram channel, validators will vote on standardized outcome templates that anyone meeting the HIP-4 requirements could then use to launch markets.
Those templates will be stored and enforced on-chain, with Hyperliquid saying that they are intended to cover events with sufficient liquidity and user interest while being unambiguous. The responsibility for defining and settling individual markets will lie with deployers according to the chosen template, and multiple deployers could even launch identical markets if they so wish.
Canonical markets created by validators will still exist, but they are expected to become less common, with Hyperliquid suggesting that ideally each year they should account for less than 10 outcome markets. Furthermore, the proposal also introduced financial incentives and penalties, including a 500,000 HYPE stake for anyone looking to become a HIP-4 deployer.
That stake will be locked for six months, and validators can slash it if markets are poorly defined or settled incorrectly under the template. Leaving a market unsettled for more than one week will also see a deployer’s stake slashed, and they are required to settle all their markets before unstaking.
Per Hyperliquid’s post, at first, each deployer will get capacity for 100 outcomes, or 200 outcome tokens, with more allocation planned through a future auction mechanism. The protocol also pointed out that eventually, deployers will be able to set fee sharing of up to 50% on their markets, although configurable fees will be included in another update in the future. Importantly, under HIP-4, only AQAv2 quote tokens will be supported.
You may also like: Sports Events Push Prediction Market Trading to Record Highs in June Best Prediction Markets in 2026: The Complete Guide Forget Bitcoin Bottom: Analyst Says These Altcoins Could Move First “All specifications described above are preliminary and subject to change based on feedback,” the team clarified, adding that users will be informed once the feature goes on the testnet and updates on the documentation are made.
HYPE Not Moved Even with the announcement, Hyperliquid’s native HYPE token stayed in the red. At the time of writing, it was trading near $60, down about 1% in 24 hours and nearly 10% in the last seven days. CoinGecko data shows it’s the same case across longer timeframes, with HYPE shaving almost 16% from its price across two weeks and nearly 13% in the past 30 days.
However, year-on-year, the asset has managed to stay in the green, being close to 34% higher than where it was 12 months ago, even though recent struggles have pulled it more than 21% below the $76.87 all-time high it hit about a month ago.
Hyperliquid’s push into permissionless outcome markets is coming on the back of a recent CoinGecko report showing that notional volume across prediction platforms hit a record $50.7 billion in June thanks to a calendar of sports events including the UEFA Champions League final, the NBA Finals, and Wimbledon. This helped push numbers for Q2 2026 to $113.8 billion, which is a 48.7% jump quarter over quarter.
Prediction markets just got a new competitor, and it’s one that already knows how to handle serious trading volume. Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 on its mainnet on May 2, 2026, introducing binary outcome contracts to a platform that has spent the past year quietly becoming one of crypto’s most important derivatives venues.
The upgrade is a bigger deal than a routine protocol patch. HIP-4 lets anyone create a market on a real-world event outcome, fully permissionless, without needing Hyperliquid’s approval. That’s the same philosophy that made HIP-3’s permissionless perpetual trading such a hit, applied now to the prediction market vertical that Polymarket and Kalshi have largely owned.
What HIP-4 actually does Binary outcome markets settle to either 0 or 1. In English: you’re trading on whether something happens or doesn’t, and when the event resolves, every contract pays out accordingly.
These contracts are fully collateralized, meaning the money to cover every possible outcome is locked in from the start.
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Everything runs through HyperCore, Hyperliquid’s unified trading engine. The practical implication is that a trader can hold spot positions, perpetual contracts, and outcome markets all within the same account, against the same collateral pool.
Settlements use USDH, Hyperliquid’s stablecoin equivalent, keeping everything denominated in a familiar unit. The first markets out of the gate are daily Bitcoin mark-price binaries, settling each day at 06:00 UTC.
Creating a market requires staking 1 million HYPE tokens. That’s a meaningful barrier, but it’s an intentional one. Prediction markets without quality control tend to fill up with low-effort or manipulable markets, and Hyperliquid is clearly trying to avoid the spam problem that has plagued other open platforms.
Why this threatens the incumbents Polymarket and Kalshi have dominated event trading for different reasons. Polymarket built its brand on crypto-native audiences and a broad event catalog. Kalshi fought a years-long regulatory battle to operate legally in the United States as a designated contract market, giving it credibility with institutional participants.
Neither platform offers what Hyperliquid now does: a single account structure that combines prediction markets with perpetuals and spot trading, all on a high-performance order book with low fees.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have described HIP-4 as a potential game-changer for event trading, pointing specifically to the integrated collateral model and the platform’s existing derivatives infrastructure as structural advantages over standalone prediction market platforms.
What this means for traders and the broader market The immediate opportunity is straightforward: traders who already use Hyperliquid for perpetuals now have a new instrument class without needing to onboard anywhere new.
The longer-term opportunity is about catalog expansion. Bitcoin price binaries are the logical first market because the data feed is clean, the audience is ready, and the settlement logic is unambiguous. The permissionless creation model means anyone with 1 million HYPE tokens can list a market on virtually any real-world event with a binary outcome.
For investors watching HYPE, the token’s role as a staking requirement for market creation adds a new demand vector. Every new market that launches requires 1 million HYPE locked as collateral, representing real incremental demand for the token beyond its existing utility as a fee and governance asset.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Key Points Hyperliquid is preparing to introduce permissionless creation of HIP-4 outcome markets through an upcoming upgrade, beginning with testnet trials Standardized outcome templates will undergo validator voting and be maintained onchain Market creators must lock 500,000 HYPE tokens for a six-month period Market deployers receive a starting capacity of 100 outcomes (equivalent to 200 outcome tokens) Fee structures up to 50% can be configured by market creators Hyperliquid has revealed intentions to implement permissionless deployment capabilities for its HIP-4 outcome markets through an upcoming protocol upgrade. The rollout strategy prioritizes testnet deployment ahead of mainnet activation.
Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 Outcome Markets to Support Permissionless Deployment with 500k HYPE Stake
Hyperliquid said HIP-4 Outcome Markets will first launch on testnet in a future upgrade and eventually support permissionless deployment. Deployers must stake 500k HYPE and may be… pic.twitter.com/Jlzg6sHaTN
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 20, 2026
The disclosure came through Telegram on Sunday. According to Hyperliquid, the infrastructure requires extensive validation testing before public permissionless access becomes available.
Outcome markets provide exposure to a significantly broader spectrum of tradable events compared to traditional spot trading or perpetual futures contracts. Hyperliquid emphasized that permissionless deployment represents a critical component for expanding this functionality.
Understanding the Template Framework To ensure market parameters remain transparent and standardized, validators will conduct votes on authorized outcome market templates. These approved templates will be recorded and executed onchain.
After template approval, any qualified deployer can leverage it to establish their markets. The system permits multiple deployers to utilize identical templates for market creation.
Market creators bear responsibility for defining and resolving each market according to template specifications. While validators retain the ability to directly deploy canonical markets, Hyperliquid anticipates this will occur infrequently — likely under 10 instances annually.
Stake Requirements and Penalty Mechanisms Prospective HIP-4 market deployers face a mandatory requirement to stake 500,000 HYPE tokens. Validators possess authority to slash this stake partially or completely if markets suffer from inadequate definitions, incorrect settlements, or failure to settle within seven days following outcome determination.
The staked amount remains locked for a six-month duration. Additionally, deployers cannot initiate unstaking procedures until all active markets under their control have been settled.
Each deployer receives an initial capacity allocation supporting 100 outcomes, corresponding to 200 outcome tokens. Complex multi-outcome scenarios consume additional allocation slots, though resolved outcomes release capacity for subsequent use.
Future development includes an auction system designed to enable allocation expansion beyond initial limits.
Market creators will have authorization to establish fee rates reaching up to 50% on their deployed markets. Enhanced fee configuration capabilities are scheduled for integration in subsequent protocol versions.
Hyperliquid introduced HIP-4 during May of this year. The prediction market functionality generated approximately $100 million in trading activity throughout its inaugural month.
The current proposal contains preliminary specifications subject to modification. Hyperliquid indicated that community input may influence final design decisions, with additional details forthcoming following testnet deployment.
Hyperliquid is bringing permissionless prediction markets to its network. Under the upcoming HIP-4 upgrade, anyone can launch markets by staking 500,000 HYPE, creating new opportunities for developers.
Meanwhile, this will potentially increase demand for the Hype token, as it is now trading around $60.6.
Hyperliquid Opens Prediction Markets to EveryoneIn a recent telegram post, Hyperliquid has announced that its upcoming HIP-4 Outcome Markets will support permissionless deployment, allowing anyone to launch prediction markets without needing approval from the protocol.
The feature will first go live on the testnet before moving to the mainnet.
According to Hyperliquid, permissionless deployment is important because the number of real world events suitable for prediction markets is far larger than the number of assets available for spot or perpetual trading.
To maintain quality, validators will first approve standardized market templates. Developers can then use these templates to launch their own prediction markets without waiting for validator approval every time.
Developers Must Stake 500K HYPE to Launch MarketsTo launch a HIP-4 market, developers must stake 500,000 HYPE, which will remain locked for six months.
The stake can be slashed if markets are poorly defined, settled incorrectly, or remain unresolved for more than one week. Developers must also settle all active markets before they can withdraw their stake.
Initially, every deployer can create up to 100 outcomes (200 outcome tokens), with future upgrades expected to increase this limit through an auction system.
Hyperliquid also plans to let deployers earn up to 50% of trading fees generated by their prediction markets, creating a financial incentive to build new markets on the network.
The protocol added that only AQAv2 quote tokens will be supported at launch, while some features, including fee customization, will be introduced in later upgrades.
How This New Protocol Will Impact HYPE PriceThe upgrade will affect HYPE’s market supply and, indirectly, will push the hype token price. Since every deployer must lock 500,000 HYPE, more tokens could gradually move out of circulation as new prediction markets launch.
The announcement also comes after Hyperliquid crossed $1 billion in protocol revenue, with 97% to 99% of protocol fees automatically used to buy back HYPE through its Assistance Fund.
Technically, HYPE is currently forming an M pattern on the daily chart. Coinpedia’s analysts say a drop below $58.37 could send the token toward $53, while a breakout higher could open the door for a rally toward $73.35.
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Hyperliquid said a forthcoming enhancement to its recent HIP-4 upgrade will support permissionless deployment of prediction markets.Prediction markets are currently under the authority of validators. The feature means anyone will be able to offer a prediction market on the platform, subject to approved templates voted on by validators.Hyperliquid said its HIP-4 upgrade, which introduced “outcome trading” to the decentralized exchange, will support permissionless deployment of the contracts in a future enhancement.
Once live, anyone will be able to offer a prediction market on the platform, subject to templates approved by validators, Hyperliquid said on Telegram on Sunday. In the meantime, they remain under the authority of validators.
Prediction markets, a sector dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, allow participants to bet on event outcomes and have evolved into a multibillion-dollar sector of the blockchain industry. Users take positions on events from central bank interest-rate decisions to who performs at the Super Bowl halftime show.
The growing popularity of the platforms — the FIFA World Cup, which wrapped up Sunday with Spain winning its third title, drew more than $50 billion in bets — has attracted centralized trading platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood into the sector to offer customers a one-stop shop for predictions markets alongside more conventional financial trading.
HIP-4 went live on the mainnet in May. Once permissionless contracts become available, the validator-controlled markets will continue to exist, but are expected to be rare. Hyperliquid said “ideally,” there will be fewer than 10 of them per year.
Permissionless prediction markets will be available first on testnet and later on mainnet, Hyperliquid said.
Deployers will be required to stake 500,000 HYPE tokens that can be then slashed if a validator vote determines the prediction market to be poorly defined or settled incorrectly. Deployers will earn up to 50% of the revenue from trading fees, Hyperliquid added.
Hyperliquid’s native HYPE token rose 1% in the hours following the announcement, lifting from an intraday low of $59.88 to just over $60.50. It was trading recently at $60.79.
Hyperliquid, a decentralized Layer-1 blockchain and perpetuals DEX, is planning to enhance its HIP-4 upgrade by incorporating decentralized prediction markets, according to a report by CoinDesk. The upgrade, previously activated on mainnet in May 2026, introduced native outcome contracts that function as fully collateralized binary prediction markets. These markets settle based on real-world events and initially included curated one-day binary markets on Bitcoin (BTC) and Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE. This development marks Hyperliquid’s strategic expansion beyond perpetual futures, placing it to compete directly with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
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The addition of decentralized prediction markets is expected to bolster Hyperliquid’s utility and attract a broader user base. This aligns with the project’s ongoing efforts to leverage its existing infrastructure, which includes an order book, cross-margin account, and USDH/USDC settlement. Market participants appear to view these developments as potentially increasing Hyperliquid’s market position, as evidenced by the current odds in relevant prediction markets.
Key Takeaways Hyperliquid’s plan to integrate decentralized prediction markets in its HIP-4 upgrade suggests a significant enhancement of the platform’s offerings. The introduction of outcome contracts and validator-governed offchain markets indicates a strategic move to compete with established prediction platforms. Current market odds and participant behavior suggest a moderate increase in Hyperliquid’s perceived value and potential future price. What to Watch Observers should monitor for further announcements regarding the implementation of decentralized prediction markets and any partnerships that may arise. The market’s response to these developments could provide insights into Hyperliquid’s ability to capture a larger share of the derivatives platform market. Additionally, any reports on Hyperliquid’s volume or user engagement could impact market perceptions and pricing, providing a clearer picture of the platform’s growth trajectory.
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Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 29% — — View market → January 1 2027 6.1% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 51% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.8% — — View market → January 1 2027 3% — — View market →
Prediction markets on decentralized rails have struggled with quality control and spam since day one. Hyperliquid’s latest proposal—HIP 4—tackles that directly by introducing a permissionless deployment framework that forces market creators to put capital at risk. According to the original report, outcome markets will first launch on testnet and later support anyone deploying an event market, provided they lock up 500,000 HYPE tokens. That stake is the gateway, and it can be slashed if a deployer publishes a market with vague definitions or bungles the settlement.
Validators will greenlight a set of standardized templates, creating a controlled environment where deployers still enjoy meaningful upside. A market creator can capture up to a 50% fee share, turning the economics into a direct incentive to launch socially relevant, well-structured markets. The proposal draws a clear line between permissionless access and permissionless chaos.
How HIP-4 Changes the Game for Deployers The 500,000 HYPE stake, worth a substantial dollar amount, acts as a serious economic bond. It weeds out low-effort actors while rewarding serious teams willing to steward their markets. Slashing conditions cover two specific risks: unclear market definitions that confuse participants, and incorrect settlement that undermines trust. Both have dogged decentralized prediction platforms like Augur in earlier cycles, where ambiguous outcomes led to disputes and drained user confidence.
Validators do not vet every market individually. Instead, they approve standard templates that define core parameters—binary outcomes, categorical results, time-bound events—and deployers pick from those pre-approved structures. This split keeps the system scalable. Standardization also makes it easier for Hyperliquid’s existing perpetuals and spot traders to assess new markets without learning custom rules for every contract.
The fee share model is aggressive but realistic. A 50/50 split between deployer and protocol means the platform still collects significant revenue, but successful market creators can build sustainable businesses on top of Hyperliquid. That aligns incentives in a way simple listing bounties never could.
Prediction Markets as a Growth Funnel Hyperliquid’s team noted that the number of tradable events in prediction markets outnumbers what spot and perpetual markets offer by orders of magnitude. That observation is not new—Polymarket’s explosive growth showed how political events, sports outcomes, and data releases can draw massive liquidity—but Hyperliquid’s move imports that reality onto a layer-1 built for high-throughput trading. The DEX already handles billions in perpetual volume, so adding outcome markets could pull in users who want a single venue for directional bets on everything from Fed decisions to hackathon winners.
Long-term, this positions Hyperliquid less as a meme-coin derivative platform and more as a general-purpose event-trading hub. Just as prediction markets are heating up, the broader DeFi ecosystem is expanding into new asset classes, a trend visible across a recent tokenization roundup. Hyperliquid’s move sits at the intersection of that market-structure shift and the user demand for high-frequency event contracts.
Developer activity across competing chains has also become a leading indicator of where trading volume migrates next, as tracked in weekly activity reports. If HIP-4 attracts a cohort of third-party deployers building specialized outcome markets, Hyperliquid’s developer traction could accelerate beyond its core perpetuals team. That is a bet the protocol seems willing to make.
What Remains Uncertain The most obvious friction is regulatory. Decentralized prediction markets have drawn scrutiny from the CFTC and other global watchdogs, especially when they touch on elections or sensitive binary events. Hyperliquid’s model puts the compliance burden on deployers, but validators may still face questions about which templates they endorse. The ongoing fight over major crypto legislation in Washington, where banks are attempting to stall a landmark bill, underscores how quickly the policy ground can shift for any permissionless market structure.
Slashing enforcement leaves room for ambiguity. A malicious deployer could still drain trust before the penalty mechanism fires, and the community must decide whether on-chain slashing, governed largely by validator discretion, will deter bad actors faster than the market can price in damage. The testnet phase will tell how fast slashing events actually resolve.
Another open question is demand from market makers. Without tight bid-ask spreads, outcome markets become speculative ghost towns. Hyperliquid’s existing liquidity base may help, but event markets require different inventory management than perpetuals. If major trading desks treat HIP-4 markets as a side experiment, volume could stay thin.
For now, the proposal shifts Hyperliquid’s narrative. It moves the platform from a single-product DEX to an infrastructure layer for event-based capital allocation. Whether that translates into sustained usage will depend on how quickly the first cohort of deployers ships markets that people actually want to trade—and whether the slashing mechanism proves credible enough to keep the bad ones out.
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Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt.
GM!
Today’s top news:
Crypto majors slightly green as oil falls; BTC at $64.6k PUMP leads alt movers on the week, up 26% as its wave of unlocks begins Hyperliquid to roll out permissionless prediction markets requiring 500k staked HYPE Michael Saylor calls BIP-110 a “bad idea” Pudgy Penguins launch Plushie toys at Target stores across the US 🎲 Hyperliquid Opens Prediction Markets to Anyone in HIP-4 Upgrade
Hyperliquid is taking prediction markets permissionless.
The exchange said an upcoming enhancement to its recent HIP-4 upgrade, which introduced “outcome trading” in May, will let anyone deploy a prediction market on the platform. Right now those markets are controlled entirely by validators, and Hyperliquid says that going forward there will “ideally” be fewer than 10 validator-run markets a year, with the rest opened up to the crowd. It rolls out on testnet first, then mainnet.
Anyone who wants to launch a market has to stake 500,000 HYPE (~$30M), a serious deposit that can be slashed if validators rule the market was poorly defined or settled incorrectly. In exchange, the deployer earns up to 50% of that market’s trading fees. It’s the same economic design behind its permissionless perps: put real skin in the game, get paid for good markets, lose your stake for bad ones. That’s a very different model from Polymarket and Kalshi, where the platform defines every market from the top down.
It’s a timely move, as prediction markets just had their biggest summer yet. The World Cup helped the sector reach $50B in wagers for the month of June, and July is on pace to go even higher ($37B so far). Of that $50B, Kalshi is the clear market leader with $33B (66% market share). Hyperliquid did just $176M—so they’ve got their work cut out for them to make a meaningful dent in the sector.
The Hyperliquid answer is to make the category open-source, turning prediction markets into another permissionless primitive rather than a curated product. But they are not a platform to be doubted, with Hyperliquid already flipping DEX-volume records, drawing JPMorgan warnings about its threat to Circle, and lobbying both the SEC and CFTC. If the permissionless model works, it could help them make a real splash. We will find out soon enough.
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets Crypto majors closed the week green up 2-5%; BTC +3% at $64.6k; ETH +6% at $1,885; SOL +1% at $76.60; HYPE -7% at $60.80 PUMP (+28%), PI (+22%) and INJ (+10%) led top movers on the week Oil -4% at $80 after progress on Iran talks; Gold +1% at $4,024 Stock futures are green as oil sells off; DOW +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.7% Michael Saylor called Bitcoin's BIP-110 proposal "a bad idea," arguing the anti-spam plan would set a censorship precedent and that "the proposed cure is more dangerous than the condition” Galaxy Digital signed a 15-year naming-rights deal to rename Texas Tech’s football stadium “Galaxy Stadium,” extending crypto’s march into college sports Project Eleven unveiled a technique to let users prove wallet ownership even after quantum computers can derive private keys The GENIUS Act hit its one-year anniversary with regulators having missed their rule-writing deadlines, though the framework takes full effect by July 2028 Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
The Bitcoin ETFs saw $132M in net inflows on Friday and ended with $75M in net inflows for the week; the ETH ETFs saw $37M in inflows on Friday and ended with $105M Meme Coin Tracker
Meme leaders were mostly flat or green over the past week; DOGE even, SHIB -1%, PEPE +5%, PENGU +4%, TRUMP +1%, BONK -23% Robinhood chain was led by Stonkbroker (+180%), REAL (+200x) and FOX (+70%); Cashcat +22% to $72M Solana leaders included AVA (+30%) and Cubeman (+85%); ANSEM +5% to $198M 💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker Pump.fun’s PUMP token is leading alt movers, up 26% on the week as its wave of unlocks begins Cross-chain protocol Allbridge halted after a $1.65 million flash-loan exploit that manipulated its Solana pool ratios, the latest in a wave of DeFi attacks 🚚 What is happening in NFTs? NFT leaders were slightly red; Punks even at 32 ETH, BAYC -2% at 8.65 ETH, Pudgy -5% at 4.06 ETH; Hypurr’s even at 188 HYPE Stonkbrokers (+125%) and Funkari (+30%) led top movers Pudgy Penguins officially launched their plushie toys in Target stores across the US Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt.
GM!
Today’s top news:
Crypto majors slightly green as oil falls; BTC at $64.6k PUMP leads alt movers on the week, up 26% as its wave of unlocks begins Hyperliquid to roll out permissionless prediction markets requiring 500k staked HYPE Michael Saylor calls BIP-110 a “bad idea” Pudgy Penguins launch Plushie toys at Target stores across the US 🎲 Hyperliquid Opens Prediction Markets to Anyone in HIP-4 Upgrade
Hyperliquid is taking prediction markets permissionless.
The exchange said an upcoming enhancement to its recent HIP-4 upgrade, which introduced “outcome trading” in May, will let anyone deploy a prediction market on the platform. Right now those markets are controlled entirely by validators, and Hyperliquid says that going forward there will “ideally” be fewer than 10 validator-run markets a year, with the rest opened up to the crowd. It rolls out on testnet first, then mainnet.
Anyone who wants to launch a market has to stake 500,000 HYPE (~$30M), a serious deposit that can be slashed if validators rule the market was poorly defined or settled incorrectly. In exchange, the deployer earns up to 50% of that market’s trading fees. It’s the same economic design behind its permissionless perps: put real skin in the game, get paid for good markets, lose your stake for bad ones. That’s a very different model from Polymarket and Kalshi, where the platform defines every market from the top down.
It’s a timely move, as prediction markets just had their biggest summer yet. The World Cup helped the sector reach $50B in wagers for the month of June, and July is on pace to go even higher ($37B so far). Of that $50B, Kalshi is the clear market leader with $33B (66% market share). Hyperliquid did just $176M—so they’ve got their work cut out for them to make a meaningful dent in the sector.
The Hyperliquid answer is to make the category open-source, turning prediction markets into another permissionless primitive rather than a curated product. But they are not a platform to be doubted, with Hyperliquid already flipping DEX-volume records, drawing JPMorgan warnings about its threat to Circle, and lobbying both the SEC and CFTC. If the permissionless model works, it could help them make a real splash. We will find out soon enough.
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets Crypto majors closed the week green up 2-5%; BTC +3% at $64.6k; ETH +6% at $1,885; SOL +1% at $76.60; HYPE -7% at $60.80 PUMP (+28%), PI (+22%) and INJ (+10%) led top movers on the week Oil -4% at $80 after progress on Iran talks; Gold +1% at $4,024 Stock futures are green as oil sells off; DOW +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.7% Michael Saylor called Bitcoin's BIP-110 proposal "a bad idea," arguing the anti-spam plan would set a censorship precedent and that "the proposed cure is more dangerous than the condition” Galaxy Digital signed a 15-year naming-rights deal to rename Texas Tech’s football stadium “Galaxy Stadium,” extending crypto’s march into college sports Project Eleven unveiled a technique to let users prove wallet ownership even after quantum computers can derive private keys The GENIUS Act hit its one-year anniversary with regulators having missed their rule-writing deadlines, though the framework takes full effect by July 2028 Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
The Bitcoin ETFs saw $132M in net inflows on Friday and ended with $75M in net inflows for the week; the ETH ETFs saw $37M in inflows on Friday and ended with $105M Meme Coin Tracker
Meme leaders were mostly flat or green over the past week; DOGE even, SHIB -1%, PEPE +5%, PENGU +4%, TRUMP +1%, BONK -23% Robinhood chain was led by Stonkbroker (+180%), REAL (+200x) and FOX (+70%); Cashcat +22% to $72M Solana leaders included AVA (+30%) and Cubeman (+85%); ANSEM +5% to $198M 💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker Pump.fun’s PUMP token is leading alt movers, up 26% on the week as its wave of unlocks begins Cross-chain protocol Allbridge halted after a $1.65 million flash-loan exploit that manipulated its Solana pool ratios, the latest in a wave of DeFi attacks 🚚 What is happening in NFTs? NFT leaders were slightly red; Punks even at 32 ETH, BAYC -2% at 8.65 ETH, Pudgy -5% at 4.06 ETH; Hypurr’s even at 188 HYPE Stonkbrokers (+125%) and Funkari (+30%) led top movers Pudgy Penguins officially launched their plushie toys in Target stores across the US Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Pump.fun’s rally gathered pace after the protocol overtook Hyperliquid and Tron in 24-hour revenue, strengthening confidence in its expanding ecosystem.
The platform generated $893,255 in daily revenue, compared with $652,163 for Tron and $542,197 for Hyperliquid, highlighting stronger network activity and user engagement.
Price followed that improving narrative as PUMP climbed 21.16% over the past 24 hours to trade near $0.001993, while trading volume jumped 403.69% to roughly $140 million.
Investor sentiment also improved after Ansem disclosed a fresh $100,000 PUMP purchase, adding another layer of bullish conviction.
Those developments reinforced the view that demand had expanded beyond short-term speculation and reflected growing confidence in Pump.fun’s broader ecosystem.
Why are top traders still leaning long? Derivatives traders maintained a constructive outlook despite PUMP’s sharp rally. Binance’s Top Trader Long/Short Ratio climbed to 1.60, showing that bullish positions continued to outweigh bearish bets.
Long accounts represented 61.49% of tracked traders, while only 38.51% remained short during the latest reading.
The positioning suggested experienced participants still expected higher prices instead of preparing for a broad reversal. Although aggressive long exposure often increased liquidation risk, traders had not reduced their bullish bias after the recent gains.
Instead, positioning indicated that confidence remained intact as participants continued backing the ongoing recovery.
Even so, sustained buying interest would likely remain necessary to validate those expectations over the coming sessions.
Source: CoinGlass PUMP cleared resistance as RSI neared extremes PUMP broke above the former $0.001637 resistance and pushed toward $0.0020, shifting that area into an important support zone after the breakout.
Buyers also moved the price closer to the next resistance at $0.002314, while the broader upside target remained around $0.003000 if demand strengthened further.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed to 69.57, approaching overbought territory after rising well above its 54.58 signal line.
The reading reflected strengthening buying pressure throughout the rally. However, the indicator also suggested the advance had started reaching stretched conditions.
If buyers defend the newly reclaimed support, PUMP could attempt another move toward $0.002314. Otherwise, rejection near current levels could encourage a short-term pullback before another breakout attempt emerges.
Source: TradingView Final Summary Pump’s ecosystem expansion and whale buying continued supporting the recent price recovery. Bullish positioning and technical strength placed $0.002314 as the next important resistance level.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Pudgy Penguins [PENGU] made a major step towards fulfilling its goal to expand its reach beyond the internet.
Following its successful TCG drop in June, Pudgy Penguins has now launched PENGU plushies for retail purchase. The new plushie line marks the NFT project’s biggest push yet into retail. Even more importantly, with this move, Pudgy Penguins extends its reach to millions more users.
In fact, Pudgy Penguins noted this milestone, adding that,
Pengu has been introduced to millions of new people in retail
An expanded user base is good news for the network and the native token, PENGU, as it increases use cases for the token. Furthermore, more traders will discover the token via QR codes on plushies, thus potentially driving demand for PENGU.
How did Pudgy Penguins’ market react? With the news, the PENGU price made a slight move higher, hiking to $0.0062 before slightly pulling back to $0.0061 at press time. These slight gains were mostly driven by spot buyers who rushed to accumulate.
According to CoinGlass data, the exchange outflows outpaced inflows significantly over the past day. As a result, the Spot Netflow remained negative.
Source: CoinGlass At press time, the Spot Netflow was -$139k, indicating that more PENGU flowed out of exchanges. Often, reduced supply on exchanges has preceded better price performances.
Bears still dominate perps, risking another pullback While buyers rushed into the spot on the good news, traders on the derivatives aggressively cashed out on these gains.
Source: Coinalyze For starters, on the perpetual side, the Perps Sell Volume rose to 984.2 million, compared to 874.9 million in Buy Volume.
As a result, the perps recorded a negative delta of -109.3 million, a clear sign of aggressive selling. The same market behavior was observed on the futures side.
According to CoinGlass data, Futures Outflow rose to $23.4 million while Inflow fell to $22.4 million. For that reason, Futures Netflow dropped 228% to -$975k.
Source: CoinGlass A negative Futures Netflow suggests that more traders closed their positions, reflecting increased bearishness.
What’s next for the memecoin? Despite PENGU’s extended reach, the market structure remains strongly bearish. At press time, the Relative Strength Index remained within the bearish zone at 45.
Source: TradingView This implies sellers are still controlling the market. The Stochastic Momentum Index also confirmed this view, as it remains negative.
Although SMI has been on an upward trajectory, the indicator holds deeply within the bearish zone. Combined, these two indicate that the momentum leans to the downside and is likely to remain so.
Thus, if the slight demand driven by the news fades, exacerbated by derivatives pressure, PENGU will drop to $0.0058. If the plushies help boost demand, however, with the extended base, PENGU could hold $0.006 and target $0.0068.
Final Summary Pudgy Penguins announced the launch of PENGU plushies on all Target shelves across the United States. PENGU market remains structurally bearish, driven by intense selling pressure on thderivativeses market.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains capped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $65,026 on Monday. Pi Network (PI) and Pump.fun (PUMP) show steady recovery on Monday, outperforming other crypto assets over the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin nears key level breakoutBitcoin maintains a capped tone just under its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65,026 while remaining well below the 200-day EMA near $74,769. This configuration suggests the broader trend still leans to the downside despite a modest recovery off recent lows.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 has edged into positive territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram stays in the positive zone with its signal line, hinting at improving momentum, yet price action remains constrained beneath $65,000.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA around $65,026, with additional supply aligning higher at the $70,000 round figure and the 200-day EMA near $74,769.
BTC/USDT daily price chart.On the downside, the next significant support sits at the horizontal level of 60,000, where buyers previously emerged, and a sustained break below that floor would likely reopen a deeper corrective phase despite the current momentum uptick.
Pi Network hints at a bullish trend reversalPi Network shows a steady recovery trend, extending for the fourth consecutive day on Monday. PI extends a positive rebound within a falling channel pattern, testing to reclaim the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $0.09613, measured from $0.1998 to $0.1183. The dominant structure remains bearish, with the overhead trendline near $0.1060, which could cap the upside.
The MACD has crossed back above its signal line in negative territory and flipped the histogram positive, hinting at a tentative easing of downside momentum. The RSI near 43 stays below the midline, but the rebound from the oversold zone reflects modest improvement in momentum.
PI/USDT daily price chart.As long as PI/USD trades below both these moving averages, rallies are likely to face supply into these zones, and the broader technical picture would remain vulnerable to renewed downside pressure on failures ahead of $0.1153.
Pump.fun gains bullish momentumPump.fun hovers near the $0.002000 mark on Monday, following a 20% jump the previous day. PUMP maintains a constructive near-term bias, with over 35% gains last week and reclaiming both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs at $0.001597 and $0.001915, respectively.
The recovery targets the previous swing high near $0.002251, followed by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level at $0.002700, calculated from the $0.00251 to $0.001153 downswing.
The RSI near 71 signals overbought conditions, despite a firm positive trend in the MACD and signal lines, which hint at sustained upside momentum.
PUMP/USDT daily price chart.On the downside, initial support is provided by the 200-day EMA at $0.001915, followed by the 78.6% retracement at $0.001951 and the 50% level at $0.001611.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Key Takeaways Pump.fun stands as a leading revenue-generating platform on Solana, accumulating protocol fees in the hundreds of millions PUMP features a revenue-funded buyback mechanism that establishes direct value accrual from platform operations A significant 33% of total token supply remains with insiders, presenting potential dilution concerns during unlock periods Legal challenges surrounding alleged unregistered securities offerings connected to platform-launched tokens pose regulatory threats The buyback structure operates at the team’s discretion without guaranteed continuity or specific commitments Within the Solana ecosystem, Pump.fun has established itself as a remarkably profitable enterprise. The service enables virtually anyone to launch and trade freshly minted cryptocurrencies within minutes, eliminating technical barriers entirely.
Pump.Fun (PUMP) Price This straightforward approach has attracted substantial trading activity, producing protocol fees exceeding hundreds of millions of dollars. In contrast to numerous blockchain ventures, Pump.fun demonstrates authentic user engagement, functional infrastructure, and verifiable income streams.
New tokens deployed on the service begin trading via an automated bonding curve mechanism. When tokens achieve sufficient market momentum, they can transition to PumpSwap, the platform’s proprietary decentralized trading venue.
Additional features including livestream capabilities, creator incentive systems, community engagement tools, and competitive token events have been integrated. The infrastructure suggests development toward a comprehensive creator economy framework where visibility translates into monetization opportunities.
Understanding PUMP’s Revenue-Linked Buyback Mechanism A fundamental component of the PUMP value proposition involves its structured token repurchase program. The platform allocates a portion of generated protocol fees toward acquiring PUMP tokens from secondary markets.
Token repurchases decrease circulating supply while simultaneously generating purchasing pressure, potentially providing price support. This arrangement creates a more tangible connection between platform success and token economics compared to typical cryptocurrency projects.
Nevertheless, PUMP token holders possess no enforceable rights to platform earnings. The repurchase program operates without binding commitments, allowing management to modify or discontinue operations without restriction.
Team Allocation Concerns and Supply Dilution Dynamics PUMP’s tokenomics established a one trillion token maximum supply at launch. The development team secured 20% allocation while early-stage investors received 13%, culminating in 33% combined insider ownership.
Current circulation represents only a fraction of total supply. Progressive token unlock events will release additional PUMP into markets, potentially creating significant selling pressure.
Prudent evaluation requires examining fully diluted valuation metrics rather than focusing exclusively on circulating market capitalization. While buyback operations may counterbalance some pressure, no assurance exists that repurchases will match unlock velocities.
Regulatory exposure represents another consideration. Multiple lawsuits assert that certain platform-facilitated token sales constitute unregistered securities transactions. Although these remain allegations, potential outcomes include financial penalties or operational constraints.
The platform’s standing undergoes continuous stress testing through fraudulent projects, unsuccessful launches, and controversial livestream content incidents.
The overwhelming majority of tokens introduced through Pump.fun fail to sustain meaningful market interest. While the platform collects fees irrespective of individual token performance, sustainable expansion requires evolution beyond ephemeral memecoin trends.
Current operational status confirms ongoing buyback activity alongside consistent protocol revenue generation throughout recent reporting periods.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last full week of July holding key support while macro clouds continue to gather.
Key points:
Bitcoin preserves its 200-week trend line at the weekly close, leading to short-term BTC price targets of up to $67,000.US-Iran war rhetoric ramps up, with oil prices hitting five-week highs ahead of a week of corporate earnings reports.Bitcoin spot demand retreats from its early-July uptick despite ETF inflows.Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple heads higher, but analysts are wary of calling a “generational low.”Crypto market sentiment hits highest levels since the start of June.Trader sees “further relief” for Bitcoin bullsIn a familiar move, Bitcoin saw sell-side pressure soon after the weekly close going into Monday morning, with local lows reaching $63,700, data from TradingView confirms.
Despite this, traders are becoming increasingly optimistic on shorter time frames as range lows continue to hold.
“Wouldn’t surprise me if we see some further relief this week - towards 65-67k,” trader Jelle predicted in his latest analysis posted Monday morning on X.
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jelle/X
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC/USD had sealed its third consecutive weekly close above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $63,322.
“To really get this interesting you want to see a strong push higher now to retrace that last leg down and get back above the Weekly 200EMA,” he told X followers, referring to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,521.
“Until then, we’re just caught in this $60K choppy price range.”BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Others doubled down on bullish conviction, with trader Roman again flagging multiple bullish divergences across BTC price metrics, including the relative strength index (RSI), a classic leading indicator.
Contrasting the optimism was seasonality, with BTC price cycle history demanding another year of bear-market moves.
“Bitcoin is more than halfway through its second year in the current BTC Four Year Cycle. 2025 proved to be the year of the $BTC Bull Market peak. And 2026 has proven itself to be the year of the Bitcoin Bear Market,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized.
“2027 will be the Bottoming Out year to precede an entirely brand new future Bitcoin Bull Market.”BTC/USD 12-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital now calculates the current bear market to be just over 70% complete.
Iran worries send oil prices higherGeopolitical risk is top of the agenda for risk-asset traders this week as the US-Iran war escalates once again.
Iran’s foreign minister warned of potentially “unresolvable” nuclear disputes while US President Donald Trump called on lawmakers to add Iran to a sanctions bill that was initially directed at Russia.
Source: Truth Social
Oil futures surged at the weekly open, with WTI crude at five-week highs above $80 per barrel and Brent crude topping $90.
CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As Cointelegraph reported, the return of the conflict saw the swift closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, that was briefly cleared for traffic as part of the now-failed US-Iran peace deal.
The latest Iran events provide volatile backdrop to the week’s macro outlook, which focuses on major corporate earnings as tech stocks face new headwinds.
In the coming days, Tesla, Alphabet and Intel will all report, providing a potential short-term volatility catalyst across risk assets.
“Earnings season is officially in full-swing,” trader resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in a thread on X.
Following last week’s lower-than-expected US inflation data, meanwhile, Trump was buoyant, calling the numbers “great news.”
“As Investment pours into our Country, Factory Construction surges, Manufacturing Jobs rise, and Prices fall, there is so much to be proud of — The Golden Age of America is here!” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Markets remained conservative on policy changes from the Federal Reserve, with the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing consensus for a 0.25% interest-rate hike in September.
Fed target-rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting (screenshot).
Source: CME Group
Bitcoin spot demand returns lowerLackluster spot-market demand remains a key stumbling block on the road to bull-market recovery, research says.
In a blog post on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that a modest supply increase at the start of July had already dissipated.
“Bitcoin’s 30-day Spot Demand recovered sharply to around -80K BTC in early July but has since deteriorated again to nearly -170K BTC,” contributor ScenarioX wrote.
Bitcoin demand data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on spot demand staying negative while recovering significantly on a rolling 30-day basis as BTC/USD hit $64,000. At the same time, futures markets saw a more pronounced influx of interest.
This was reflected in net flows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were positive for four out of five days last week, per data from UK-based investment manager, Farside Investors.
“Despite this significant decline in spot demand, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable, mainly due to easing short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market,’ ScenarioX said.
“However, derivatives demand remains insufficient to support a sustainable uptrend on its own. This leaves the market in a structurally fragile state, where renewed spot selling could trigger a sharp downside move.”US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
CryptoQuant suggested that the market could still continue to gain “for a while” before futures demand was exhausted.
“However, the rally without meaningful spot demand is likely to end in a significant long liquidation event,” ScenarioX warned.
Puell Multiple lows fail to convinceA classic BTC price metric is showing signs of a reversal this month, but CryptoQuant warns that it is too early to talk of a “generational low.”
The Puell Multiple, which measures the USD value of newly issued BTC each day relative to its 365-day moving average, continues to head higher after seeing macro lows in early June.
“A low reading means miner income is well below normal,” CryptoQuant contributor TheChessOnChain explained in a blog post.
Bitcoin Puell Multiple. Source: CryptoQuant
Puell in turn reflects on Bitcoin miners’ financial stability, and June’s 0.87 reading was the lowest since September 2024. Zooming out, however, each BTC price cycle has delivered higher lows for Puell, potentially boosting that latter reading’s chances of forming the next floor.
“These bottoms are getting shallower, and the four-year supply cut (the halving) is not the cause: the metric scales both sides of its ratio, so cutting new supply cancels out. The real driver: price falls less each cycle (down 83% in 2018, 77% in 2022, less since), so miner income never sinks as deep,” TheChessOnChain said.
Bitcoin Puell Multiple data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
While Puell lows do not strictly correspond to BTC price bear-market bottoms, TheChessOnChain suggests that waiting for new lower readings — including the metric’s classic deep value territory — may be a flawed strategy.
“The 2024 and 2026 lows came with price still high, so they are Puell lows, not price bottoms. Waiting for the classic sub-0.5 zone, where miners sell at a loss, may mean waiting for a level that no longer prints,” they said.
“Today reads as easing miner pressure, not a generational low. It turns decisive only if it holds beneath recent lows for weeks.”Crypto sentiment gauge nears two-month highDespite macro headwinds brewing over the weekend, crypto market sentiment continues to post a steady recovery.
The latest readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index show panic slowly dissipating among the broader investor base.
On Monday, the gauge measured 29/100 — still within its “fear” bracket but at its highest levels since the start of June. For much of the intervening period, crypto was gripped by “extreme fear.”
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
In commentary on the rebound last week, research platform Santiment underscored its timing with the return of ETF inflows.
“After a long outflow stretch throughout May and June, this shift signals ETF demand is back and confidence in crypto is starting to pick up again,” it wrote on X.
Santiment argued that “encouraging” US inflation data had helped boost risk appetite, while “crypto policy optimism added another reason for sidelined buyers to re-enter.”
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
On Sunday, Brent crude surpassed $90 per barrel, marking its first close above that level since mid-June.
This comes after a weekend in which a strike on Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base by an Iranian ballistic missile and drone killed two US service members and left a third missing.
The war resumed on July 7.
To this, Bitcoin just shrugged.
As US gas prices drew near $4 per gallon and Brent futures reversed due to supply-risk pricing, Bitcoin was trading just below $64,700, about unchanged from a week ago.
The real market story is about that difference.
Crude oil, an asset susceptible to geopolitical risks, has been behaving predictably over the first half of the deadliest conflict in the Middle East this decade.
Bitcoin, the asset that an entire industry has dedicated years to promoting as "digital gold," is not.
The War, In Numbers
In what the Pentagon has called Operation Epic Fury, which began on February 28, the United States and Israel carried out strikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites, killing Iran's supreme commander and starting the fight.
In response, during the peak of the war, on March 9, Brent rose to $126.29, marking the pinnacle of the cycle.
However, prices began to fall due to a series of increasingly precarious ceasefires.
The trend has been systematic: ceasefire, tanker traffic picks up, Brent approaches $70; provocation, blockade reimposed, Brent surges 5-15% in a single session.
A memorandum of understanding issued on June 18 marked the fourth effort to reduce tensions and saw temporary success - Brent spot prices averaged $85 in June before dropping below $70 on July 1, according to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, nearing pre-war levels.
It continued for a duration of three weeks.
On July 6-7, Iran targeted three commercial vessels in the Strait, prompting the US to respond with strikes on over 80 Iranian military targets.
Trump announced that the ceasefire was "over.
What transpired was the ninth consecutive night of US strikes as of this weekend, a reestablished naval blockade on Iranian ports, an assault on Kuwaiti desalination infrastructure, and now the first confirmed US combat fatalities of the renewed phase - raising the war's American death toll to 17.
Iran's deputy foreign minister has announced that Tehran has completely halted its commitments under the June memorandum of understanding.
This is not an isolated incident.
In the past five months, we have witnessed five cycles of escalation and de-escalation, and with each round, the war premium on oil has been dynamically adjusted.
Because of this, $90 is more than simply a round figure; it represents an important milestone in a long-term trend.
According to UBS and other experts, the variables that were able to keep oil prices below March's highs, such as reduced Chinese imports, coordinated releases from strategic reserves, and enough commercial stocks, are now obviously waning.
If the Strait is successfully sealed, prior conflict-era bank projections indicate a possible return of $120.
Bitcoin's Muted Correlation
Crypto's response to every round of this conflict has been very minimal and steady.
Bitcoin, which rose to a monthly high of $65,500, slid almost 2% to under $65,000 after the US hit more than 80 Iranian targets on July 7.
The market saw about $350 million in leveraged liquidations.
The next day, when Trump pronounced the truce dead, BTC fell from above $64,600 to $62,115, a move of comparable size, while oil surged by around 7%.
As CENTCOM ran its fourth attack wave close to Hormuz on July 13, Bitcoin fell less than 2% in response to a 4% increase in gasoline prices.
The ratio has been consistent throughout the conflict: oil goes 2-4 times farther than Bitcoin on the same headline.
This discrepancy, which in 2021 would have been interpreted by Bitcoin enthusiasts as positive "hedge" behavior, now reads more like apathy.
Ether has proven to be resilient by staying above $2,000 even in the face of extreme volatility.
The consistent dominance of Bitcoin, which has maintained a range of 58.5–59%, suggests that during times of uncertainty, capital tends to move into BTC rather than leaving the crypto space altogether.
This is a real signal, though it may not be as big as what the headlines suggest.
Midway through July, the Fear & Greed Index registered 26, placing it squarely in the "fear" zone.
On the other hand, spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs halted an eight-week outflow trend the same week, suggesting that institutional purchasers are trying to capitalize on the fall by adding more coins rather than selling them.
Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 in October 2025 and is now trading between $62,000 and $65,000, a fall of about 50% from that peak and about 31% year-to-date, compared to the 9% gain experienced by the S&P 500.
This larger figure encompasses the entire scenario.
Meanwhile, central banks' purchases and genuine demand for gold as a safe-haven asset have caused its price to skyrocket amidst the continuing turmoil.
Despite the crisis, the asset that was touted as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical tensions has fallen behind stocks and the physical metal it sought to digitally replace.
Why The Hedge Narrative Broke
According to CryptoSlate's reporting on studies conducted by VanEck and JPMorgan, an explanation based on structural considerations, rather than emotional responses, is becoming more popular among institutional desks.
There has been a shift in the power dynamic around the marginal price of Bitcoin due to ownership of spot ETFs.
In a market where rate-sensitive, macro-driven tactics are becoming more influential, the effect is similar to a "liquidity sponge": the market expands when the global money supply and risk appetite go up, and contracts when real rates go up, or liquidity gets tight, regardless of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz.
Instead of war news, monetary policy is now the main element impacting the market.
That claim can be evaluated, and the data we have so far supports that assessment: the newly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, is presiding over a conflict-driven inflation surge (the three-week increase in Brent prices from $70 to $90 is a classic example of a supply-side price increase), and market sentiment suggests that the Fed will likely maintain interest rates this month with a 93% likelihood, according to CME FedWatch, and an increase with a 14% chance.
Regardless of the outcome of the debate, the researchers' methodology predicts that Bitcoin would fall further as a result of rate changes if oil prices keep going up and the probability distribution becomes more aggressive.
It stands in stark contrast to a plan to reduce geopolitical risks and symbolizes the evolution of geopolitical uncertainty as a result of monetary policy before it affects the value of Bitcoin.
The evasion of sanctions is a fascinating story that is playing out beneath the surface of the price movements.
For a long time now, compliance teams have been simulating the exact same scenario: a protracted war with significant sanctions against a state actor that is becoming economically isolated.
The OFAC apparatus of the Treasury has already shown that it is prepared to move quickly against firms that help Iranian oil restrictions to be circumvented using cryptocurrency channels.
It's crucial to keep an eye on it as the scenario unfolds, even if it's a more subtle element than the current price.
The Setup Bulls Are Pointing To
The cycle-pattern argument will inevitably surface again; it's important to give it due consideration in its own right.
On a handful of occasions throughout its history, Bitcoin's price has fallen below its cycle peaks.
However, each time this has happened, it has been followed by substantial recoveries.
For example, in early 2015, it fell below the 2013 high of around $1,150 before surging into 2017; in late 2022, it fell below the 2017 peak of around $19,660, but then it rose to over $126,000 in October 2025.
At both bottoms, the same conditions prevailed: near-capitulation sentiment, retail apathy, and a macroeconomic background (rate increases in 2022, war-driven inflation risk today) that made the asset look uninvestable.
From a purely pragmatic point of view, both stories are true simultaneously.
The fact that Bitcoin is linked to the liquidity of central banks suggests that interest rate forecasts have a greater impact on its value than short-term geopolitical events.
In light of this, the continued fighting in Bushehr is less of a danger to Bitcoin than an extra increase in inflation caused by crude prices.
Nevertheless, the characteristics that caused the past two major rallies-a 50% drop from the all-time high, institutional purchasing when ETF withdrawals reversed, and huge accumulation by large investors during downturns—are identical to this one.
Rather than direct events from Tehran, the approaching month of CPI data, FOMC signals, and the continuing situation in the Strait will greatly impact Brent's movement towards or away from $100.
$69K & Higher?
Once again, Bitcoin is aiming for its previous high of $69,000. According to crypto expert Ali Martinez, the top digital currency is following a pattern that has led to significant price gains of more than 7,500% and 550% in prior market cycles.
On the other hand, clear signs are emerging from on-chain data, which could indicate a major change is on the horizon.
Martinez points out that there have been very few instances in Bitcoin's history where the price has fallen below the all-time high of the preceding cycle. However, each time this has happened, it has led to some of the best purchasing opportunities in the market.
Bitcoin fell below its previous high of about $259 in the 2015 cycle, but then surged over 7,500% in the succeeding bull market.
After the 2021 cycle, a similar pattern surfaced. After dipping below $19,660 in late 2022, Bitcoin rebounded by over 550% to an astounding $126,198 in October 2025, surpassing its previous all-time high.
The same old pattern of events is playing out before our eyes once again. Having hit a high of about $69,000 in 2021 in June, Bitcoin has been trading just below that level ever since.
If Bitcoin can stay above this level for the foreseeable future, Martinez thinks it would mean the cryptocurrency is finally breaking out of its bear market and onto a more hopeful upward trend.
Bulls Take Charge Onchain
Following the recent rally from $57,000, the latest Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap from Glassnode shows that many new investors joined the Bitcoin market between $62,000 and $65,000.
Since many Bitcoin holders already own Bitcoin at these prices, this creates a strong support area.
Nonetheless, Glassnode cautions that a significant portion of this purchasing occurred towards the conclusion of the latest surge. If Bitcoin fails to surpass the $66,000 mark, new investors may begin to realize their gains, which could heighten the likelihood of a short-term decline.
Bitcoin is still following its well-documented four-year cycle, according to crypto expert Rekt Capital. His prediction is that 2026 will be a bear market year, whereas 2025 was the apex of the bull market.
According to the expert, the final bottoming phase before a new Bitcoin bull cycle begins would occur in 2027.
Despite the current downturn, experts suggest that Bitcoin remains aligned with numerous patterns observed in earlier market cycles.
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $64,800, with market participants closely monitoring its ability to recover to $69,000 and establish its forthcoming significant trajectory.
What Other Technical Readings Show
TradingView's technical analysis overview for the coming week, based on key data from moving averages, oscillators, and pivot points, suggests a sell signal.
Source: TradingViewOscillators, primarily short-term tools used to gauge momentum and identify overbought or oversold conditions, point to a neutral sign, while the long-term readings of moving averages still show a strong sell signal.
Source: TradingViewSeparately, InvestTech's Algorithmic Overall Analysis gave a weak negative score.
Source: InvestTechThe research's one-to-six-week recommendation was hold.
InvestTech said, "Bitcoin shows strong development within a rising trend channel in the short term. Rising trends indicate that the currency experiences positive development and that buy interest among investors is increasing. The token is approaching resistance at 66000 points, which may give a negative reaction."
"However, a break upwards through $66,000 will be a positive signal. Negative volume balance indicates that volume is high on days with falling prices and low on days with rising prices, which weakens the currency. The token is overall assessed as technically neutral for the short term," added the research.
Licensed to Shill: Retail Barely Touches Stablecoins – Treasury & Remittance Are the Real Adoption (Jeannie Lim, Xweave)
At Xweave, Jeannie Lim says her team moved $1 million for an e-commerce client in under three minutes, cutting settlement costs 30% against a Tier 2 bank’s SWIFT rate.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades just below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $65,000 on Monday, a key technical level that could determine its next directional move. Institutional demand via ETFs improved somewhat last week, providing some tailwind for the Crypto King, but the latest round of strikes between the US and Iran has dampened risk appetite.
Geopolitical risks cap BTC’s upsideUS Central Command (CENTCOM) said on X that it has completed the ninth consecutive evening of strikes against Iran on July 19, at 10 p.m. ET.
US President Donald Trump said that the latest strikes were being carried out in honor of US service members killed in recent days. CENTCOM added that the strikes are aimed at degrading Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
In response, Iran fired ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones targeting US allies in the region, with Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq reporting a new wave of attacks.
Adding to this, the US recently resumed a naval blockade of Iranian ports and restricted an earlier Oil-selling license. On the other hand, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is aggressively monitoring and attempting to restrict vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest developments have heightened the risk of a broader regional conflict, prompting traders to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium and dampening overall risk appetite. The renewed rise in Oil prices has revived fears of energy-driven inflation, which has strengthened the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and capped the Crypto King’s upside.
Institutional demand shows mild signs of improvementSoSoValue data shows that spot BTC ETFs recorded a mild inflow of $75.67 million last week, marking the second week of positive flows after weeks of withdrawals. The sustained inflows suggest institutional investors are gradually returning to the market. If these flows continue and intensify this week, BTC could see further recovery.
Total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow weekly chart. Source: SoSoValue“ETF inflows return, but not yet enough for Bitcoin to break out,” Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, said in an email comment.
Massabni explained that the market sentiment has stabilized somewhat, supported by softer US inflation data and renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, the fact that prices have yet to decisively break above the $65,000-$65,500 range suggests that current buying pressure is only strong enough to contain the downside, but not yet sufficient to confirm a new uptrend.
“In the near term, the $65,000-$65,500 range remains the key resistance area. If Bitcoin breaks above and holds this zone, the recovery could extend toward $67,000–$68,000. Conversely, if prices continue to face rejection and ETF inflows weaken again, Bitcoin could return to test the area around $62,000, followed by $60,000.”
“In my view, the market does not lack reasons to start buying Bitcoin. What is still missing is a sufficiently strong catalyst – most likely a flow of capital large and persistent enough to turn the current rebound into a genuine trend,”, Massabni concluded.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC could extend gains if it closes above the 50-day EMABitcoin price trades at $64,200 on Monday, holding just above nearby horizontal support around $64,004 but still capped by a dense band of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) overhead. The 50-day EMA at roughly $65,000, together with the 100-day and 200-day EMAs higher up at about $68,128 and $74,074, respectively, keeps the broader tone bearish as price continues to consolidate beneath these trend-defining barriers.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 stays near neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory but has been losing altitude, which suggests upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near $65,000. A daily close above this level would be needed to open a clearer path toward the 100-day EMA around $68,128 and then the 200-day EMA near $74,074, with a more distant horizontal cap emerging near $84,410.
On the downside, immediate support is seen near $64,004, where buyers previously emerged, and a break below this floor would expose further weakness toward the key psychological level at $60,000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Shares of Hut 8 gained over 12% in premarket trading Monday after the company announced a $9.8 billion lease agreement that fully commercializes its Beacon Point AI data center campus in Nueces County, Texas.
The 15-year triple-net lease covers an additional 352 MW of IT capacity and expands the existing commitment from the same high-investment-grade customer to 704 MW.
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Hut 8 said it will construct a second AI factory based on NVIDIA’s DSX reference architecture, while the campus remains fully supported by 1,000 MW of utility capacity already secured through AEP Texas.
Including annual rent escalations, the latest agreement lifts the site’s total base-term contract value to $19.6 billion and is expected to contribute roughly $655 million in annual net operating income once stabilized.
The company said the transaction validates its power-first infrastructure strategy, which focuses on securing power before attracting long-term AI tenants.
Hut 8’s contracted AI data center portfolio now totals 949 MW across Beacon Point and River Bend, backed entirely by investment-grade counterparties and representing $26.6 billion in contracted revenue over the base lease terms.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Spot gold rallied 20 USD in the short term, international crude oil prices moved lower, and tensions in the Middle East have eased.
According to Bitget market data, spot gold rallied $20 in the short term, currently trading at $4,039.58 per ounce. Both U.S. WTI and Brent crude oil fell by over $1 in the short term: WTI crude oil broke below $81 per barrel, down 1.69% on the day, while Brent crude oil dropped 1.00% on the day, currently at $85.33 per barrel. On the news front, a senior Iranian source stated that mediators have proposed a 10-day pause in strikes to explore ways to revive the temporary agreement between Iran and the U.S.
15 minutes ago
The three major U.S. stock index futures advanced, with Nasdaq 100 Index futures surging more than 1%.
According to Bit.com market data, U.S. stock index futures of the three major benchmarks rose: Nasdaq 100 futures gained more than 1%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.57%, and Dow Jones futures increased 0.43%. On the news front, a senior Iranian source stated that mediators have proposed a 10-day pause in strikes to explore ways to revive the temporary agreement between Iran and the United States. This may signal a short-term de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, driving a rebound in risk markets.
15 minutes ago
WTI and Brent crude oil continue to slump, with both down over 2% intraday.
According to Bitget market data, both US and Brent crude oil continue to slump. Brent crude has fallen below $85 per barrel, down more than 2% on the day; WTI crude oil dropped over $2 intraday, currently trading at $80.29 per barrel, a 2.5% decline.
15 minutes ago
SemiAnalysis: Kimi K3 Ranks Third Globally, Could Reveal Hidden Profit Margins of OpenAI and Anthropic
SemiAnalysis analysts Jordan Nanos and Max Kan recently analyzed Kimi K3, the model developed by Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI, concluding that it outperforms Google Gemini in comprehensive benchmark tests. This not only reflects the narrowing gap between Chinese and U.S. AI models but also offers new insights into the business models of closed-source AI firms like Anthropic and OpenAI. According to SemiAnalysis’s overall assessment, Kimi K3 currently ranks third globally, trailing only Fable 5 and GPT-5.6, and surpassing Google Gemini. The analysts noted that while this result does not signal major issues for Google’s AI business, Kimi K3’s publicly disclosed parameter count, performance, and pricing provide a reference for external estimates of the economic value of closed-source models. Kimi K3 has 2.8 trillion parameters, far exceeding most open-source models. Jordan Nanos stated that a model of this size cannot be deployed on a single NVIDIA B200 GPU, requiring higher-spec hardware such as GB300, B300-class systems, or AMD MI355X. Based on this, he speculated that Anthropic and OpenAI’s flagship closed-source models likely operate at a similar parameter scale, rather than holding an order-of-magnitude advantage. In terms of business models, Kimi K3’s launch price is close to Anthropic’s Sonnet series: input pricing is approximately $3 per million tokens, and output pricing is around $15 per million tokens, a roughly threefold increase over the previous Kimi generation. Max Kan argued that if Moonshot AI is not operating at a long-term loss, then Anthropic and OpenAI charging higher prices for models of comparable size suggests their API business may have high profit margins. “Selling API tokens could be more profitable than SaaS,” he said. However, the two analysts emphasized that these judgments are not based on the AI companies’ public financial data, but rather on reverse inference drawn from Kimi K3’s parameters, pricing, and performance.
15 minutes ago
Goldman Sachs warns that inflationary pressures are spreading across the US, with Fed Chair Walsh facing mounting pressure to raise interest rates.
Goldman Sachs’ latest research report shows that U.S. inflationary pressure is spreading from a narrow set of sectors to a broader range of areas. While current inflation levels have not yet hit their 2022 peak, the expanding scope of price increases is posing greater challenges to the Federal Reserve’s policy efforts. Goldman Sachs economist Jessica Rindels analyzed the extent of inflation spread using the six-month annualized change rate of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key metric closely watched by the Fed. The data shows that, compared to the average inflation level between 1990 and 2019, the pressure index for inflation categories exceeding 3% has reached around 6, while it stood at 10 during the 2022 inflation peak. The report points out that sectors such as audio-visual equipment, financial services, healthcare, and transportation have become key drivers of current price increases. Meanwhile, housing rent inflation, which carries a significant weight in the PCE index, is projected to fall below 3% in the fourth quarter of this year, potentially serving as a key factor easing inflationary pressure. Goldman Sachs’ analysis aligns with recent concerns from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about the "broadening of inflation". Warsh stated that preventing price hikes from spreading to more sectors of the economy is a key task for the Federal Reserve. However, unlike former Chair Jerome Powell’s relatively clear policy communication style, Warsh has so far refused to provide specific interest rate path guidance. Jeremy Schwartz, senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, noted that the Fed is reducing forward guidance to the market, and this policy uncertainty has heightened concerns on Wall Street. Meanwhile, hawkish voices within the Fed are growing. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has expressed support for moderate interest rate hikes, arguing that the current economic resilience is inconsistent with inflation risks.
15 minutes ago
Iranian sources: Mediators have proposed a 10-day pause on strikes to seek ways to restore the temporary agreement between Iran and the United States.
Senior Iranian sources said the mediator has proposed a 10-day pause in strikes to find ways to revive the interim agreement between Iran and the U.S. (Jinshi)
Capital B, Europe’s second-largest Bitcoin treasury company, will consolidate its shares in a 10-for-1 reverse stock split aimed at broadening its institutional investor base.
The reverse split will reduce the number of shares to about 30.1 million from 300.7 million. Each new share will replace 10 existing shares and carry a par value of 0.80 euros ($0.90), up from 0.08 euros, Capital B said in a Monday statement.
The Euronext Growth Paris-listed company said the conversion will occur automatically on Sept. 8 without changing the aggregate value of investors’ holdings.
Capital B said the move is intended to support its institutional development and appeal to a wider pool of investors.
Last month, shareholders approved up to 105 billion euros in financing capacity to support the company’s Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
Capital B holds 3,139 Bitcoin at the time of writing. Germany’s Bitcoin Group SE holds the most among European companies, with 3,605 BTC, according to Bitcoin Treasuries.
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After weeks of persistent selling pressure, institutional demand is starting to recover.
To put it into perspective, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $6 billion in net outflows over the past two months. Notably, this coincided with Bitcoin’s nearly 25% correction, highlighting how closely ETF flows have tracked BTC’s price action.
With inflows now turning positive again, it’s no surprise the market is beginning to question whether institutional sentiment is finally shifting.
As the chart below shows, more than $200 million has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs so far this month, alongside BTC’s 9%+ rebound. Simply put, Bitcoin’s recovery still depends heavily on institutional positioning, making ETF flows a key signal to watch in the weeks ahead.
Source: SoSoValue That said, it may still be too early to call this a full-blown return of institutional demand.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory despite BTC rallying from $58k to $64k.
In other words, U.S. investors are still not aggressively buying the dip, suggesting the latest rally lacks strong spot demand from institutions.
More importantly, the biggest risk to Bitcoin’s [BTC] recovery may not be weak ETF inflows alone.
Instead, another key on-chain signal suggests the recent $200 million in ETF inflows could simply reflect a short-term rotation, rather than the beginning of a broader structural shift in institutional demand.
ETF inflows alone don’t confirm a bullish reversal As the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Bitcoin remains the market’s anchor.
However, despite Bitcoin ETF inflows recovering and BTC.D climbing 1.5% over the past week to hover around 60%; capital continues rotating into Ethereum.
The ETH/BTC ratio has now posted three straight weeks of gains and is heading into a fourth. The key takeaway? This rotation doesn’t look like a fluke.
As the chart below shows, Ethereum ETFs have attracted more than $233 million in net inflows this month, outpacing Bitcoin on a relative basis. More importantly, ETH ETFs saw significantly smaller outflows during the recent correction.
In other words, Ethereum faced less institutional selling on the way down and is attracting stronger buying on the way back up, a clear sign that institutional capital is favoring ETH over BTC.
Source: SoSoValue In essence, Bitcoin’s recent ETF inflows look more measured than euphoric.
Pair that with a negative Coinbase Premium Index and Ethereum’s [ETH] continued strength across both technicals and institutional flows, and Bitcoin’s latest recovery starts to look more like a short-term rotation than the beginning of a broad structural shift in institutional demand.
The bottom line? ETF inflows have undoubtedly improved, but the broader institutional picture hasn’t fully flipped. Until U.S. spot demand strengthens and Bitcoin starts reclaiming relative strength against Ethereum, the latest recovery still lacks a key confirmation signal.
World’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder Strategy has no plans to slow down its Bitcoin buying. After surprising the market with a $216 million BTC sale, CEO Phong Le says the company is “not going anywhere.”
While Michael Saylor’s latest post has sparked speculation that another massive Bitcoin buying could be announced today.
Strategy CEO Says More Bitcoin Buying Is ComingStrategy President and CEO Phong Le has assured the investors that the company’s recent Bitcoin sale does not signal a change in its long-term strategy.
Speaking after Strategy sold 3,588 BTC worth about $216 million, Le said the transaction had little impact on the market.
“We sold about $200 million of Bitcoin, but it did not move the market. In fact, the market moved up during that period of time. So we’re not going anywhere.”
Le added that Strategy remains the largest identified corporate holder of Bitcoin and wants to continue expanding that position.
“We’re the largest identified holder of Bitcoin. My objective would be to be the largest buyer of Bitcoin for the foreseeable future. We’re not going anywhere.”
His comments come just days after many investors questioned whether Strategy had started reducing its Bitcoin exposure.
$3 Billion Cash Reserve Gives Strategy More FlexibilityFurther, when asked why Strategy recently increased its cash reserves instead of immediately buying more Bitcoin.
Lee said it was built after preferred shareholders requested a stronger liquidity position.
“We accumulated $3 billion in cash because we listened to our preferred shareholders… Building up the U.S. dollar reserve was a big part of that.”
According to Le, Strategy remains financially comfortable and does not see debt becoming a concern unless Bitcoin falls much further.
“When Bitcoin gets down closer to $8,000 to $10,000, that’s when we have to consider some of the risks associated with our debt. Until that point in time, we feel very secure about the balance sheet.”
He also confirmed that once the company’s preferred shares recover, Strategy expects to issue more shares and continue buying Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor’s Post Sparks Bitcoin Buying SpeculationAdding to the excitement, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor recently posted “What’s Next?” on X.
The post included the company’s orange dot chart, which has historically appeared before major Bitcoin purchase announcements. Because of that pattern, many investors believe Strategy could soon announce another Bitcoin acquisition this week.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading around $64,212, down slightly over the past 24 hours. From a technical perspective, analysts say BTC is approaching the breakout point of a W pattern on the daily chart.
If confirmed, Bitcoin could rally toward $71,334, potentially creating another buying opportunity for Strategy.
Story Ends Here
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In brief Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, has published a 110-point essay opposing Bitcoin's proposed BIP-110 soft fork. BIP-110 would temporarily restrict non-financial data such as Ordinals and inscriptions on Bitcoin. Saylor argues the change sets a dangerous precedent by using consensus to invalidate currently valid, fee-paying transactions. Michael Saylor has escalated his opposition to a contentious Bitcoin proposal, publishing a sweeping 110-point essay over the weekend arguing that BIP-110—a soft fork meant to curb non-financial data on the network—would cause more harm than the problem it targets.
Titled "110 Reasons BIP 110 Is a Bad Idea," the Strategy executive chairman billed the text as a “case for neutral rules, hard consensus, open markets, and permissionless innovation." Saylor said he shares supporters' goals—keeping validation cheap, payments affordable, and Bitcoin focused on sound money—but rejects their remedy.
BIP-110 would, for around a year, tighten Bitcoin's consensus rules to limit the techniques used to embed arbitrary data, targeting the inscriptions and Ordinals that have crowded block space and pushed up fees since 2023. Supporters, including developer Luke Dashjr and the Bitcoin Knots camp, cast it as a way to fight spam, while critics say it would reject valid transactions and could split the network.
Kill or cure?Saylor's essay builds on his earlier argument that the danger lies in the precedent that BIP-110 would establish. Bitcoin "cannot read intent," he wrote—the network can't tell whether bytes represent an image, a proof, a contract, or a future application—so restricting the forms used to store data also blocks legitimate ones. "'Spam' is not a consensus primitive," he argued, and disapproval of a use "is not invalidity."
Changing consensus to police one contested use, he warned, creates a template others could reuse, with privacy tools, novel custody, stablecoin settlement or token systems potentially facing “similar arguments.” That, he wrote, is "not a prediction" but "a governance risk." The restrictions would lapse after about a year, "but the precedent does not." He brands BIP-110 a "Bitcoin Iatrogenic Proposal"—one where the treatment itself does the damage.
Saylor also objects to the activation design, which lowers the miner-signaling threshold to 55% from the 95% used in earlier soft forks and drops the usual option to let a proposal quietly expire. Signaling has been running below 1%, far short of that 55% bar, according to the proposal's monitoring dashboard, and Saylor cautioned that mismatched enforcement "can divide the network."
“Guardians of neutrality”Saylor cast the dispute as a fight over Bitcoin's character. "Bitcoin's strength is not that everyone agrees on every use," he wrote, arguing that it lies in the fact that "disagreement is contained by neutral rules and hard consensus." He concluded that, "Bitcoin does not need guardians of purity. It needs guardians of neutrality."
The Strategy chairman’s stance aligns him with Blockstream CEO Adam Back, Casa's Jameson Lopp and Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow, who have also pushed back on BIP-110, against Dashjr and the Knots camp. BIP-110's mandatory signaling window opens in August, with activation targeted around September 1.
The manifesto lands as Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury firm pivots from its “never sell” stance to “active capital management,” pausing its Bitcoin purchases as it builds up its cash reserve to $3 billion in order to fulfil stock dividend payments and debt interest obligations. Last week, Strategy CEO CEO Phong Le said last week the firm wouldn't worry about its debt unless Bitcoin crashed to the $8,000–$10,000 range.
On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users place just an 8% chance on Strategy holding over 1 million BTC by the end of the year, down from 17% a week ago.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
In brief Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, has published a 110-point essay opposing Bitcoin's proposed BIP-110 soft fork. BIP-110 would temporarily restrict non-financial data such as Ordinals and inscriptions on Bitcoin. Saylor argues the change sets a dangerous precedent by using consensus to invalidate currently valid, fee-paying transactions. Michael Saylor has escalated his opposition to a contentious Bitcoin proposal, publishing a sweeping 110-point essay over the weekend arguing that BIP-110—a soft fork meant to curb non-financial data on the network—would cause more harm than the problem it targets.
Titled "110 Reasons BIP 110 Is a Bad Idea," the Strategy executive chairman billed the text as a “case for neutral rules, hard consensus, open markets, and permissionless innovation." Saylor said he shares supporters' goals—keeping validation cheap, payments affordable, and Bitcoin focused on sound money—but rejects their remedy.
BIP-110 would, for around a year, tighten Bitcoin's consensus rules to limit the techniques used to embed arbitrary data, targeting the inscriptions and Ordinals that have crowded block space and pushed up fees since 2023. Supporters, including developer Luke Dashjr and the Bitcoin Knots camp, cast it as a way to fight spam, while critics say it would reject valid transactions and could split the network.
Kill or cure?Saylor's essay builds on his earlier argument that the danger lies in the precedent that BIP-110 would establish. Bitcoin "cannot read intent," he wrote—the network can't tell whether bytes represent an image, a proof, a contract, or a future application—so restricting the forms used to store data also blocks legitimate ones. "'Spam' is not a consensus primitive," he argued, and disapproval of a use "is not invalidity."
Changing consensus to police one contested use, he warned, creates a template others could reuse, with privacy tools, novel custody, stablecoin settlement or token systems potentially facing “similar arguments.” That, he wrote, is "not a prediction" but "a governance risk." The restrictions would lapse after about a year, "but the precedent does not." He brands BIP-110 a "Bitcoin Iatrogenic Proposal"—one where the treatment itself does the damage.
Saylor also objects to the activation design, which lowers the miner-signaling threshold to 55% from the 95% used in earlier soft forks and drops the usual option to let a proposal quietly expire. Signaling has been running below 1%, far short of that 55% bar, according to the proposal's monitoring dashboard, and Saylor cautioned that mismatched enforcement "can divide the network."
“Guardians of neutrality”Saylor cast the dispute as a fight over Bitcoin's character. "Bitcoin's strength is not that everyone agrees on every use," he wrote, arguing that it lies in the fact that "disagreement is contained by neutral rules and hard consensus." He concluded that, "Bitcoin does not need guardians of purity. It needs guardians of neutrality."
The Strategy chairman’s stance aligns him with Blockstream CEO Adam Back, Casa's Jameson Lopp and Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow, who have also pushed back on BIP-110, against Dashjr and the Knots camp. BIP-110's mandatory signaling window opens in August, with activation targeted around September 1.
The manifesto lands as Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury firm pivots from its “never sell” stance to “active capital management,” pausing its Bitcoin purchases as it builds up its cash reserve to $3 billion in order to fulfil stock dividend payments and debt interest obligations. Last week, Strategy CEO CEO Phong Le said last week the firm wouldn't worry about its debt unless Bitcoin crashed to the $8,000–$10,000 range.
On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users place just an 8% chance on Strategy holding over 1 million BTC by the end of the year, down from 17% a week ago.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and arguably Bitcoin’s most vocal corporate evangelist, has come out swinging against a proposed change to Bitcoin’s consensus rules. His weapon of choice: a lengthy essay titled “110 Reasons BIP-110 Is a Bad Idea,” published on July 18-19, 2026.
The man whose company holds 843,775 BTC, worth roughly $54.31 billion at current prices, clearly has some skin in this game.
What BIP-110 actually proposes Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110 is a temporary soft fork designed to restrict arbitrary data storage on the Bitcoin blockchain. The proposal includes seven specific restrictions on data storage methods. It also lowers the miner signaling threshold required for activation to 55%, down from the traditional 95% supermajority that Bitcoin soft forks have historically required.
The activation target is set for August 2026, though the proposal currently lacks substantial support to hit even that reduced threshold.
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Saylor’s case against the proposal Saylor’s core argument boils down to a single principle: Bitcoin’s value comes from its neutrality. The moment you start deciding which types of valid, fee-paying transactions are acceptable and which aren’t, you’ve opened a door that’s very difficult to close.
He frames Bitcoin’s existing “hard consensus” mechanism, requiring near-unanimous agreement for protocol changes, as a critical safeguard against governance overreach. Lowering the signaling threshold to 55% doesn’t just make this particular change easier to implement. It establishes a precedent that future changes can bypass the near-universal agreement that has historically protected Bitcoin from contentious forks.
Saylor also highlights a practical concern that often gets lost in the ideological debate. BIP-110 would invalidate transactions that are currently valid and paying fees to miners.
He isn’t alone in his assessment. Adam Back, the co-founder of Blockstream and one of the few people actually cited in the Bitcoin whitepaper, publicly backed Saylor’s opposition. Back specifically flagged the risk of network splits.
The deeper ideological fault line This debate didn’t emerge from nowhere. It’s the latest eruption along a fault line that’s been rumbling since Ordinals first appeared on Bitcoin in early 2023.
On one side are Bitcoin purists who believe the network should serve exclusively as a monetary system. They view inscriptions and arbitrary data storage as spam that bloats the blockchain, drives up fees for financial transactions, and degrades Bitcoin’s core functionality as sound money.
On the other side are those who argue that any valid transaction paying the required fee is, by definition, not spam.
What this means for investors The block size wars of 2015-2017 ultimately produced a hard fork (Bitcoin Cash) and years of community acrimony. BIP-110 appears to lack the support necessary for activation. The reduced 55% miner threshold was presumably designed to make passage easier, but even that lower bar seems unlikely to be cleared by August 2026. Opposition from heavyweight figures like Saylor and Back further diminishes the proposal’s chances.
What investors should actually watch is whether alternative proposals emerge that try to address the data storage concerns without lowering activation thresholds. The fact that BIP-110 simultaneously picks a fight about transaction types and governance standards is precisely why it has attracted such forceful opposition from some of Bitcoin’s most prominent stakeholders.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
In one week, Bitcoin sat still through missile strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and then fell with Asian chip stocks. The war test and the tech test gave opposite answers about what Bitcoin is, and both answers are correct. Working out how is the most useful thing a holder can do right now.
Summary
Bitcoin held a tight range near $63,000 through a weekend of US strikes on Iran and renewed missile attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a marked change for an asset that once sold off on a single Hormuz headline. Days later it fell below $63,000 anyway, dragged by an AI-valuation rout that sent Japan’s Nikkei down nearly 5% in its worst session since March and knocked more than 500 points off the Nasdaq. Gold went the other way in the same selloff, rising back above $4,000 as the dollar index climbed, which is exactly what a hedge is supposed to do and exactly what Bitcoin did not. Analysts increasingly locate Bitcoin’s driver in the liquidity and inflation channel, not the geopolitical hedge narrative, with the soft June CPI and Fed repricing doing more work than the missiles. Down roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak near $126,200, Bitcoin has tracked the same rate fears and AI jitters as the Nasdaq. The honest conclusion is not that the hedge thesis died, but that it was always narrower than advertised: Bitcoin hedges money, not missiles. Two tests were administered to Bitcoin this month, days apart, by events nobody scheduled. The first was a war test: American strikes on Iran, then Iranian missiles fired at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, ending a week-long lull. Oil jumped, gold firmed, Treasuries caught a safety bid, and Bitcoin did something it has almost never done in its history. Nothing. It held a tight range through a weekend of exactly the headlines that once triggered instant three-percent drops.
The second was a tech test: a rout in AI and chip stocks that produced the Nikkei’s worst session since March and a 500-point Nasdaq slide. This time Bitcoin moved immediately, straight down, below $63,000, while gold rose back above $4,000 in the same session. One asset, two shocks, two opposite responses, one week. Either Bitcoin has matured past panic or it has been absorbed into the tech trade, and the strange truth is that both readings are right, because they are answers to different questions.
The week that ran the experiment The facts first, because the sequencing is the argument.
The war leg came first. Following US strikes on Iranian targets, Iran’s military fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, ending a pause in attacks under a US-Iran understanding. Brent crude climbed toward $88 a barrel, up roughly 30% over two weeks, the classic supply-shock signature. Gold firmed. And Bitcoin held near $63,800 through the weekend and into the week, trading in a range so tight that market desks remarked on it. This is the asset that fell as much as 3% in hours when Israeli strikes on Iran first landed in 2025, an episode that liquidated over a billion dollars of leveraged longs in a day. The same category of headline now produced approximately no response. Whatever Bitcoin was in that earlier episode, it is not that now.
JUST IN: Iran’s IRGC vows to target two Israeli or US universities in the region in retaliation for strike on Tehran’s University of Science and Technology pic.twitter.com/vYKPyNtZmC
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) March 29, 2026 The tech leg followed. Concerns over stretched AI valuations, brewing for weeks, broke into a rout: heavy selling in Asian semiconductor names took the Nikkei down as much as 5% in its worst session since March, the Nasdaq shed more than 550 points at its lows, and a separate session saw SK Hynix plunge 12% in Seoul, dragging the Kospi down 7%. US index futures pointed lower, and the risk-off rotation ran the textbook route: the dollar index rose to around 100.75, and gold advanced 0.61% to reclaim $4,000. Bitcoin went with the chip stocks, not with the gold, sliding below $63,000, with ether falling harder, as much as 3% toward $1,830, in the usual pattern of a liquidity-driven selloff where the majors bleed and everything beneath them bleeds more. One strategist compressed the week into a phrase, describing a market bruised by “AI fatigue and Hormuz heat.”
Put the two legs side by side, and the discrimination is unmistakable. Bitcoin ignored the war variable and responded to the liquidity variable, in the same week, with the same holders, at the same price level. Markets rarely run experiments this clean.
The maturation reading The first interpretation is the one Bitcoin’s advocates should be making carefully rather than triumphantly, because it is real but narrower than it sounds.
An asset that no longer panics on kinetic conflict headlines has, by definition, graduated from one class of behavior. The old pattern was mechanical: geopolitical shock, risk-off reflex, leveraged crypto longs liquidated first because crypto trades around the clock and its leverage is the most accessible to margin calls. During the 2025 Israel-Iran escalation, a derivatives executive described the dynamic plainly: in moments of acute military risk, liquidity gets prioritized over narrative, traders raise dollars and cut volatile exposure, and Bitcoin, being the most liquid volatile thing on earth, gets sold. That reflex appears to have weakened substantially. Holding a tight range through strikes, ship attacks, and a hawkish Fed repricing is not what a panic asset does.
Part of the change is structural and measurable. The marginal holder is different now: ETF vehicles, corporate treasuries, and long-horizon allocators sit where leveraged retail once dominated, and Strategy’s stack of 843,775 BTC did not move an inch through the week. Positioning data points the same way, with open interest growing only modestly and funding rates near flat, the signature of a market without a crowded leveraged side to flush. An unlevered holder base with multi-year horizons simply has no mechanism for transmitting a Hormuz headline into a forced sale, and the tape now reflects that.
There is also a subtler point the maturation camp is entitled to: not-reacting is what the digital gold thesis predicts for this specific shock. Gold itself did not spike dramatically on the missiles; it firmed. Hard-asset hedges are not supposed to convulse on war news, they are supposed to sit there being unconfiscatable while everything levered convulses around them. On the war leg alone, Bitcoin behaved more like gold than it ever has.
The tech-proxy reading Then came the second leg, and the second reading, which the first cannot explain away.
When the AI rout hit, the hedge behaved like a hedge and Bitcoin behaved like a chip stock. Gold up, dollar up, Bitcoin down with the Nasdaq. If Bitcoin’s holders had truly rotated into the it-is-digital-gold consensus, the AI selloff was the moment to prove it, a valuation scare in the exact sector Bitcoin is supposedly a refuge from. Instead the correlation asserted itself immediately, and the explanation is uncomfortable for the maturation camp: the marginal dollar flowing into Bitcoin over the past two years is substantially the same dollar that has been chasing AI. Same risk budget, same momentum style, same sensitivity to the rate path. When that dollar gets scared, it sells both positions, because to its owner they were always the same trade, long technological transformation with leverage on liquidity.
The longer tape supports this reading brutally. Bitcoin sits roughly 50% below its October 2025 record near $126,200, and the path down has tracked the same rate fears, the same liquidity squeeze, and now the same AI-valuation jitters dragging the Nasdaq, with the whole crypto complex down roughly 48% from a $4.2 trillion peak. Nothing in that drawdown looks like an uncorrelated store of value; all of it looks like the high-beta end of a single global risk trade. Analysts working the flows have said so directly: Nansen’s Nicolai Sondergaard argued the tape reflects the inflation and liquidity channel doing the work, not the geopolitical hedge narrative, pointing to the soft June CPI print, 3.5% headline against 3.8% expected, that reset Fed expectations, sank the dollar to multi-month lows, and eased the 10-year toward 4.57% in mid-July. Bitcoin rallied on that print and fell on the AI rout, which is to say it traded monetary conditions twice and missed zero times.
On this reading, the calm during the war was not maturity. It was indifference of a specific kind: the asset’s owners no longer believe Middle East risk changes dollar liquidity much, so they do not trade it, exactly as the Nasdaq does not trade it. Bitcoin did not rise above the war. It joined the asset class that ignores wars until oil makes the Fed’s job harder.
The synthesis the week actually supports Here is the resolution, and it requires giving up a slogan on each side.
The two tests were testing different claims. The war test asked: is Bitcoin still a panic asset, sold reflexively on any shock? The answer is no, and that answer is genuinely new, structurally grounded in the changed holder base, and worth something. The tech test asked: is Bitcoin an uncorrelated hedge against the financial system? The answer is also no, and the honest advocates conceded that one quarters ago. What remains, once both slogans are surrendered, is a precise and actually useful identity: Bitcoin is a liquidity asset. It prices the supply of money and the appetite for risk, with almost nothing else admitted. Missiles do not move it, because missiles do not move M2. CPI moves it. The Fed moves it. The AI trade moves it, because the AI trade is currently the main pipe through which risk appetite expresses itself.
This is narrower than digital gold and more dignified than Nasdaq beta, and it maps cleanly onto the original thesis if you read the original thesis carefully. Bitcoin was designed as a hedge against monetary debasement, not against geopolitics. Gold hedges both, which is why gold rose on the missiles and on the money. Bitcoin hedges one, with leverage and volatility attached, and it spent this week showing precisely that split: flat on the geopolitics, violently responsive to anything touching rates and liquidity. Holders who wanted a war hedge bought the wrong asset, and this week told them so gently, without even charging them for the lesson. Holders who want a monetary hedge own an instrument that is currently marked 50% below peak because the monetary environment, restrictive rates, a hawkish chair saying the inflation fight is not over, oil threatening the rate-cut path, is exactly what it is priced to hate.
The short-term picture follows from the identity. Polymarket puts the odds of the Fed holding rates at the July meeting at 94%, allocators warn the restrictive regime could stretch into late 2026, and every barrel Brent adds on Hormuz risk tightens the constraint further by feeding the inflation the Fed is fighting. The path for a liquidity asset in that world runs through the liquidity, not the headlines: Bitcoin’s war, the only one it has ever traded, is with the FOMC.
The test the week did not run Intellectual honesty requires naming the scenario this week’s experiment never reached, because both readings survive it only by assuming it away.
The war leg tested limited escalation: strikes, shipping attacks, a contained supply scare that added a risk premium to oil without breaking the market’s basic assumption that the conflict stays regional. Bitcoin’s indifference to that is now on the record. What remains untested is the discontinuity, the event large enough to jump categories: a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil transits, a direct exchange that pulls in Gulf producers, anything that converts a risk premium into a supply crisis. In that world the transmission channels stop being separable. Oil gaps rather than climbs, imported inflation stops being a forecast and becomes a print, the rate-cut path does not narrow but closes, and the same liquidity channel that Bitcoin trades every day delivers the geopolitical shock it has been ignoring, at full force, all at once.
How Bitcoin behaves in that scenario is simply unknown, and the week’s evidence supports two incompatible guesses. The maturation evidence, unlevered holders, flat funding, treasuries that do not move, suggests the asset rides through even that, repriced lower with everything else but without the panic mechanics of old. The liquidity-asset evidence suggests something harsher: if Bitcoin is the highest-beta expression of dollar liquidity, then the moment a geopolitical event tightens liquidity violently is the moment Bitcoin underperforms everything, including the chip stocks, because beta is symmetric and the direction is down. Gold, meanwhile, would be doing what it did this week at ten times the scale. The divergence that measured 60 basis points on a Thursday could measure twenty points in a crisis, and every allocator holding both assets as interchangeable hedges would discover the difference in a single session.
There is one more asymmetry worth logging before the test arrives. Bitcoin’s calm this month was partly a positioning artifact, the absence of a crowded leveraged side to liquidate, and positioning is the least stable fact in markets. The structure that produced the indifference, ETF-heavy ownership, flat funding, modest open interest, is a snapshot, not a property of the asset. A two-month rally that rebuilds leverage restores the old transmission mechanism intact, and the next Hormuz headline would find the flush the last one could not. The market has not learned to ignore war. It has, for the moment, arranged itself so that war has nothing to grab. Those are different achievements, and only one of them survives a change in the funding rate.
Which is the honest caveat to the week’s clean result: the experiment ran under laboratory conditions, limited war, clean positioning, a soft CPI at its back. The finding, that Bitcoin trades money and not missiles, is real and holders should build on it. The confidence interval around it should stay wide enough to admit the one scenario where money and missiles become the same variable, because that is the scenario in which the distinction this article has carefully drawn stops mattering, and the only hedge that works is the one that was never correlated to begin with.
What to watch The oil-to-CPI transmission. The one channel through which the actual war reaches Bitcoin: Brent up 30% in two weeks becomes imported energy inflation, which caps rate-cut optionality, which is the variable Bitcoin genuinely trades. Watch crude and inflation expectations, not the strike maps.
Whether the calm survives a bigger escalation. The maturation reading has been tested against limited strikes and shipping attacks. A full Hormuz closure that gaps oil would test whether the indifference holds when the geopolitical shock is large enough to become a monetary one, which is the boundary where the two readings finally collide.
The funding and open-interest tape. The flat funding and modest open-interest growth that muted this month’s moves is a configuration, not a law. If leverage rebuilds into any rally, the panic-asset behavior the war test declared dead gets its mechanism back, and the next headline will find a crowded side to flush.
Bitcoin spent one week failing the hedge test and passing the panic test, and the market’s confusion about which result matters is understandable, because the asset’s own marketing spent a decade conflating them. The week’s actual finding is smaller and sturdier: Bitcoin has stopped trading the war because the war was never its subject. Money is. It has never traded anything else, and at half its peak, in a restrictive regime, with its chair promising the fight is not over, it is trading its subject with complete fidelity. The missiles were noise. The FOMC is the war.
JUST IN: Chamath Palihapitiya says two problems face Bitcoin bulls
Marginal liquidity prefers prediction and equity markets while energy for mining is better used for AI pic.twitter.com/tlGTBMFwqA
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) July 20, 2026 Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. It describes recent market behavior, which does not predict future behavior, and correlations between assets change without warning. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of July 20, 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions How did Bitcoin react to the US-Iran escalation? Barely, which is the story. Bitcoin held a tight range near $63,000 to $63,800 through a weekend of US strikes and renewed Iranian missile attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, even as Brent crude climbed toward $88 a barrel. That marks a sharp change from earlier episodes, such as the 2025 Israel-Iran escalation, when similar headlines dropped Bitcoin as much as 3% in hours and liquidated over a billion dollars of leveraged positions.
Then why did Bitcoin fall below $63,000? Because of the tech selloff, not the war. A rout in AI and chip stocks sent Japan’s Nikkei down nearly 5% in its worst session since March and knocked more than 550 points off the Nasdaq at the lows, with a related session dragging South Korea’s Kospi down 7% on a 12% plunge in SK Hynix. Bitcoin fell alongside the equity move while US futures pointed lower, in a broad liquidity-driven risk-off rotation.
What did gold do during the same selloff? The opposite. Gold advanced 0.61% to climb back above $4,000 while the dollar index rose to around 100.75, the classic hedge-plus-haven pattern. The divergence is the sharpest evidence in the week’s tape: in a stress event, gold performed the role of an uncorrelated hedge and Bitcoin traded with the technology stocks, not against them.
Does this mean the digital gold thesis is dead? It means the thesis was always narrower than the slogan. Bitcoin was designed as a hedge against monetary debasement, not geopolitics, and the week showed exactly that split: no reaction to missiles, strong reaction to anything touching rates and liquidity, including the soft June CPI print of 3.5% versus 3.8% expected. Gold hedges both money and war. Bitcoin, on current evidence, hedges money, with volatility attached.
Why has Bitcoin stopped panicking on war headlines? Structurally, the holder base changed. ETFs, corporate treasuries, and long-horizon allocators replaced much of the leveraged retail positioning that once transmitted headlines into forced selling, and Strategy’s 843,775 BTC did not move through the week. Positioning data showed only modest open-interest growth and near-flat funding rates, meaning there was no crowded leveraged side for a shock to flush.
Is Bitcoin just a Nasdaq proxy now? The correlation is real but the label overshoots. Bitcoin is down roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak near $126,200, tracking the same rate fears and AI-valuation jitters as the Nasdaq, and analysts such as Nansen’s Nicolai Sondergaard locate the driver in the inflation and liquidity channel. The tighter description is a liquidity asset: it prices monetary conditions and risk appetite, which currently express themselves through the tech trade.
How could the Iran conflict still hit Bitcoin? Through oil and inflation. Brent is up roughly 30% in two weeks, and sustained energy inflation would constrain the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates, extending the restrictive regime that Bitcoin, as a liquidity asset, is priced against. A severe escalation, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could convert a geopolitical shock into a monetary one, which is the channel Bitcoin actually trades.
What are the key signals to watch next? Three. The oil-to-inflation transmission, since that is the war’s only route into Bitcoin’s driver. The July FOMC, where markets price a 94% chance of a hold and where guidance on the inflation fight sets the liquidity path. And derivatives positioning: if leverage rebuilds into any rally, the muted-reaction regime of this month loses the structural feature that produced it, and headline sensitivity can return.
MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor rarely finds himself on the opposing side of a Bitcoin development conversation. Yet a new proposal, BIP-110, has forced the long-time advocate to issue a sharp warning: temporarily filtering “spam” transactions would set a dangerous precedent and undermine the network’s permissionless architecture. According to the original report from CoinDesk, Saylor labeled the plan “a bad idea” during a public discussion, arguing that any gatekeeping mechanism, no matter how well-intentioned, would erode Bitcoin’s neutrality.
The proposal, formally introduced as a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal, aims to reduce congestion by giving network participants the option to reject transactions that carry arbitrary data payloads. Proponents frame it as a pragmatic congestion management tool. For months, a surge in inscription-based activity has driven up fees and bloated block space, frustrating pure monetary transaction users.
The Slippery Slope Saylor Sees Saylor’s objection goes far beyond the immediate technical trade-offs. His core argument rests on the idea that once Bitcoin nodes or miners start deciding which transactions are legitimate based on content, the system loses its claim to being a neutral, censorship-resistant ledger. That quality — not just speed or cost — is what separates Bitcoin from legacy financial rails.
He warned that a filtering function, even if optional, could evolve into a compliance tool under external pressure. Regulators in multiple jurisdictions are already pushing intermediaries to block certain addresses or transaction types. A built-in blocking mechanism would make that job easier. In his view, that kind of functionality doesn’t just clean the chain — it creates a controllable switch that can be flipped by whoever holds influence over node operators.
The timing is notable. Lawmakers in Washington have been wrestling with the structure of crypto regulation, as highlighted by the ongoing fight over a landmark crypto bill in Congress. Imposing content-based filters at the protocol layer would hand regulators a ready-made enforcement mechanism, whether they asked for it or not. Saylor’s caution lands at a moment when the boundary between code and compliance is already under intense negotiation.
Congestion vs. Censorship — The Real Trade-Off Supporters of BIP-110 argue that the network can no longer afford to treat all data equally. Inscription transactions, they say, impose externalities on monetary users without contributing to Bitcoin’s payment function. Block space is a scarce resource, and letting it be consumed by what some call “economic clutter” damages the user experience for everyday transfers and settlements.
Yet the data itself tells a more nuanced story. The inscription wave, while intense, has also generated significant fee revenue for miners at a time when mining economics are under pressure from rising hashrate and flat BTC price moves. Removing that revenue stream via protocol-level filtering could inadvertently weaken miner profitability and, by extension, network security in the near term. The market would need to absorb that shift — and it’s not clear if plain transaction demand alone can fill the gap quickly.
The debate is not entirely new. Bitcoin’s history includes previous conflicts over what data belongs in transactions, from early dust spam attacks to the OP_RETURN wars. Each time, the network ultimately opted for minimal restrictions, preserving the principle that the chain validates mathematical validity, not intent or payload. BIP-110 represents a departure from that tradition, proposing an explicit filtering mechanism rather than relying on economic disincentives like higher fees to manage demand.
In that light, Saylor’s position is less a sudden break with developer thinking and more a defense of the status quo that has allowed Bitcoin to operate across jurisdictions without being classified as a publisher or a payment processor. Large institutional holders, including MicroStrategy’s own treasury strategy, depend on that legal and operational simplicity. A programmable block button would complicate that narrative considerably.
What Comes Next for BIP-110 Even with Saylor’s vocal opposition, BIP-110 is unlikely to move forward without broad consensus. Bitcoin’s governance model depends on a messy, slow, and often contradictory alignment of miners, developers, and node operators. The proposal remains in early discussion and may never reach activation.
Still, the conversation itself reveals tension lines that have been building since the Taproot upgrade made inscription-like use cases technically cheaper. The community is being forced to decide what Bitcoin is primarily for: a settlement layer for value transfer, or an anchor for broader digital asset activity. The answer will shape economic incentives, developer interest, and user behavior for years.
The market isn’t pricing in any change yet — Bitcoin trading remained steady on Monday, suggesting participants see this as a philosophical debate rather than an imminent fork risk. But that could shift if key developers or mining pools signal stronger support for filtering proposals. For now, Saylor’s public stand ensures that neutrality remains the default expectation, not the point of negotiation.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
LXP Industrial Trust shareholders to receive $61.20 per share in cash
Purchase price represents a 12.3% premium to the 30-day VWAP and a 19.8% premium to the 90-day VWAP
NEW YORK and TORONTO and WEST PALM BEACH, Fla., July 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM, TSX: BAM) (“Brookfield”), together with Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (“CPP Investments”), and LXP Industrial Trust (NYSE: LXP) (“LXP” or the “Company”), today announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Brookfield and CPP Investments (collectively, “Buyer”) will acquire LXP in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $5.2 billion, including net debt and preferred equity.
LXP owns one of the largest portfolios of modern warehouse and logistics facilities in the United States, comprising approximately 53 million square feet across 108 properties in attractive industrial markets in the Sunbelt and Midwest. The portfolio is characterized by modern assets, strong occupancy and long-duration leases that generate durable cash flows and is well positioned to benefit from the demand for high-quality, well-located logistics properties.
Thomas W. Eglin, Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of LXP, said “This transaction is the culmination of the LXP team’s successful execution of our strategic plan to transform LXP into a pure-play industrial REIT, curate a best-in-class portfolio, and implement our development program. The LXP Board unanimously determined that this transaction with Brookfield and CPP Investments fully maximizes value for our shareholders.”
“LXP has assembled a high-quality industrial portfolio with modern logistics assets in attractive markets,” said Lowell Baron, Chief Executive Officer of Brookfield Real Estate. “The acquisition aligns with our strategy of investing in high-quality real estate with durable cash flows and opportunities to create value through active asset management. We’re excited to partner with CPP Investments and build on LXP’s strong foundation.”
“The industrial sector, particularly in the U.S., continues to offer attractive long-term investment opportunities, supported by structural demand drivers including domestic manufacturing, evolving global supply chains and population growth across key Sunbelt markets,” said Sophie van Oosterom, Managing Director, Head of Real Estate at CPP Investments. “We look forward to partnering with Brookfield and combining their operating expertise with a well-positioned portfolio to generate sustainable investment returns for the CPP Fund in the interests of CPP contributors and beneficiaries.”
Under the terms of the definitive merger agreement, LXP shareholders will receive $61.20 per share in cash, which represents a 12.3% premium to LXP’s 30-day volume weighted average price (“VWAP”) and 19.8% premium to LXP’s 90-day VWAP, in each case for the period ended July 17, 2026.
Transaction Details
The transaction has been unanimously approved by LXP’s Board of Trustees and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to approval by LXP’s shareholders and satisfaction of other customary closing conditions. The transaction is not subject to a financing condition.
The definitive agreement includes a 40-day “go-shop” period expiring at 11:59 p.m. New York City time on August 28, 2026, during which time LXP, with the assistance of its advisors, may actively solicit and consider alternative acquisition proposals and engage in discussions with third parties. Subject to the terms and conditions of the definitive agreement, including notice and negotiation rights in favor of Buyer, LXP may terminate the transaction and the definitive agreement to enter into a transaction that constitutes a superior proposal, subject to the payment of a termination fee.
There can be no assurance that the solicitation process will result in a superior proposal or that any other transaction will be approved or completed. LXP does not intend to disclose developments with respect to this solicitation process unless and until its Board determines such disclosure is appropriate or otherwise required.
Under the terms of the definitive merger agreement, LXP has agreed to suspend payment of common share dividends until the earlier of the closing of the transaction or the termination of the definitive agreement.
Subject to and upon completion of the transaction, LXP’s shares will no longer trade on the New York Stock Exchange and LXP will become a privately-held company.
LXP’s Second Quarter 2026 Results
LXP intends to release its second quarter 2026 financial results as scheduled on July 29, 2026. In light of the pending transaction, LXP does not intend to continue hosting conference calls or webcasts to discuss its quarterly financial results.
Advisors
BofA Securities, Inc. is acting as lead financial advisor, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC is acting as co-financial advisor and Hogan Lovells Cadwalader US LLP is serving as legal advisor to LXP.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLP are serving as financial advisors and Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP and Thompson Hine LLP are serving as legal advisors to Brookfield and CPP Investments, with DLA Piper LLP serving as legal advisor to CPP Investments in connection with certain aspects of the transaction. Dechert LLP is acting as legal advisor to Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and Morgan Stanley & Co LLP.
About Brookfield Asset Management
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (NYSE, TSX: BAM) is a leading global alternative asset manager, headquartered in New York, with over $1 trillion of assets under management across infrastructure, energy, private equity, real estate, and credit. We invest client capital for the long-term with a focus on real assets and essential service businesses that form the backbone of the global economy. We offer a range of alternative investment products to investors around the world — including public and private pension plans, endowments and foundations, sovereign wealth funds, financial institutions, insurance companies and private wealth investors. We draw on Brookfield’s heritage as an owner and operator to invest for value and generate strong returns for our clients, across economic cycles.
For more information, please visit our website at www.bam.brookfield.com.
About CPP Investments
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments™) is a professional investment management organization that manages the Canada Pension Plan Fund in the best interests of the more than 22 million contributors and beneficiaries. In order to build diversified portfolios of assets, we make investments around the world in public equities, private equities, real estate, infrastructure and fixed income. Headquartered in Toronto, with offices in Hong Kong, London, Mumbai, New York City, São Paulo and Sydney, CPP Investments is governed and managed independently of the Canada Pension Plan at arm’s length from governments. At March 31, 2026, the Fund totaled $793.3 billion. For more information, please visit www.cppinvestments.com or follow us on LinkedIn, Instagram or on X @CPPInvestments.
About LXP Industrial Trust
LXP Industrial Trust (NYSE: LXP) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on Class A warehouse and distribution investments in 12 target markets across the Sunbelt and Midwest. LXP seeks to expand its warehouse and distribution portfolio through acquisitions, build-to-suit transactions, sale-leaseback transactions, development projects and other transactions. For more information, please visit LXP’s website at www.lxp.com.
Additional Information and Where to Find It
In connection with the proposed transaction, the Company intends to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) a proxy statement on Schedule 14A. Promptly after filing its definitive proxy statement with the SEC (if and when it becomes available), the Company will mail the definitive proxy statement and a proxy card to each shareholder entitled to vote at the special meeting relating to the proposed transaction. This communication is not a substitute for the proxy statement or any other document which the Company may file with the SEC. INVESTORS AND SHAREHOLDERS OF THE COMPANY ARE URGED TO READ THE PROXY STATEMENT (INCLUDING ANY AMENDMENTS OR SUPPLEMENTS THERETO) AND ANY OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS IN CONNECTION WITH THE PROPOSED TRANSACTION THAT THE COMPANY FILES WITH THE SEC WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THE PROPOSED TRANSACTION. The proposals for consideration by the Company’s shareholders regarding the proposed transaction will be made solely through the proxy statement. The definitive proxy statement, the preliminary proxy statement and any other documents filed by the Company with the SEC (when available) may be obtained free of charge at the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov or by accessing the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at www.lxp.com or by contacting the Company’s Investor Relations team by email at [email protected].
Participants in the Solicitation
This communication does not constitute a solicitation of a proxy, an offer to purchase or a solicitation of an offer to sell any securities. The Company and certain of its trustees and executive officers may be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies from the Company’s shareholders with respect to the proposed transaction. Information about the Company’s trustees and executive officers and their ownership of the Company’s securities is set forth in the Company’s definitive proxy statement on Schedule 14A for its 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, filed with the SEC on April 3, 2026, and subsequent documents filed with the SEC. Additional information regarding the identity of participants in the solicitation of proxies, and a description of their direct or indirect interests in the proposed transaction, by security holdings or otherwise, will be set forth in the definitive proxy statement and other materials to be filed with the SEC in connection with the proposed transaction when they become available. Free copies of these documents may be obtained as described in the preceding paragraph.
Certain statements contained herein, other than historical fact, regarding the proposed transaction, including any statements regarding the expected timetable for completing the proposed transaction and benefits of the proposed transaction, and any other statements regarding the Company’s future expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, financial conditions, assumptions or future events or performance that are not historical, may be considered “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act and are intended to be covered by the safe harbor provided by the same. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of trends and uncertainties. No forward-looking statement is intended to, nor shall it, serve as a guarantee of future performance. You can identify the forward-looking statements by the use of words such as “may,” “will,” “would,” “could,” “should,” “expect,” “intend,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “believe,” “continue,” "seek," "endeavor," and other similar terms and phrases. Forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company’s expectations, and you should not rely on forward-looking statements since they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which are, in some cases, beyond the Company’s control and could materially affect the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, performance or future achievements or events. Some of the factors that may affect outcomes and results include, but are not limited to: (i) risks associated with the Company’s ability to obtain the shareholder approval required to consummate the proposed transaction and the timing of the closing of the proposed transaction, including the risks that a condition to closing would not be satisfied within the expected timeframe or at all or that the closing of the proposed transaction would not occur, (ii) the outcome of any legal proceedings that may be instituted against the parties and others related to the merger agreement and the costs related to such proceedings, (iii) the risk that shareholder litigation or other proceedings in connection with the proposed transaction may affect the timing or occurrence of the proposed transaction or result in significant costs of defense, indemnification and liability, (iv) unanticipated difficulties or expenditures relating to the proposed transaction, the response of the Company’s tenants, business partners and competitors to the announcement of the proposed transaction, potential difficulties with the Company’s ability to retain and hire key personnel and maintain its business relationships, including those with tenants and other third parties, as a result of the proposed transaction, and/or potential difficulties in employee retention as a result of the announcement and pendency of the proposed transaction, (v) changes affecting the real estate industry and changes in market and economic conditions, including tariffs, geopolitical tensions and elevated inflation and interest rates that may adversely impact the Company or its tenants, (vi) increased or unanticipated competition in the real estate market, (vii) the uncertainties of real estate development, acquisition and disposition activity, (viii) maintenance of real estate investment trust status, (ix) fluctuations in interest rates and the costs and availability of financing, (x) dependence on tenants’ financial condition, (xi) the occurrence of any event, change or other circumstance or condition that could give rise to the termination of the merger agreement, (xii) the ability to recognize the anticipated benefits of the proposed transaction and (xiii) the risk that the Company’s stock price may decline significantly if the proposed transaction is not consummated. Additional factors include those described under the section entitled Item 1A. “Risk Factors” of Part I of the Company’s 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K, as filed with the SEC on February 12, 2026, a copy of which is available at www.sec.gov. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
