Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.

RBC still sees the gold price grinding towards $5,000 despite the latest selloff, with investor and central-bank flows underpinning its high-conviction view. The Gold price fell sharply again on Tuesday, with our XAU/USD rate around $4,355, down 2.1% on the day after ending August near $4,450.

RBC Capital Markets is sticking with a substantially higher path.

“We remain of the view that gold should spend most of its time in the $4500-5000/oz range for what remains of this year,” RBC said, describing that view as “unchanged and with high conviction”.

By year-end, the bank is “leaning towards our 2026 high scenario ($4929/oz)”, while for 2027 it favours a high scenario averaging $5,296.

That bullish stance survived Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole shock.

“Warsh's Jackson Hole comments did see gold decline, but it's unclear to us if anything for gold has truly changed,” RBC said.

The bank argues that stress in the US Treasury market is actually “a bigger positive for gold, outweighing the potential impact of current elevated yields”.

That claim is being tested now.

Gold dropped to a two-week low on Tuesday as US Treasury yields rose sharply, the Dollar strengthened and markets lifted the probability of a September Fed hike to around 66%. Reuters reported spot gold falling more than 2%.

Investor Flows Keep RBC Bullish The stronger part of RBC's case is the return of actual buying.

“Q3-to-date has seen the tide turn,” the bank said, with gold-backed ETP inflows surging since mid-July and particularly quickly through August.

“All regions have seen positive inflows over the past month,” while RBC expects 208 tonnes of net ETP inflows in 2026.

Central banks remain important too.

“We expect 745 tons of official sector demand this year,” RBC said, with slightly more forecast for 2027.

We saw the first evidence of that renewed investor demand in our recent look at RBC's gold-flow data, when ETF holdings and speculative positioning were already turning higher.

RBC's conclusion is unusually direct:

“Gold did not just fall out of a coconut tree, it exists in the context of concern, uncertainty, and an uneven macro landscape.”

“We still think the $4500-5000/oz range is the sweet spot for gold for the medium term,” with the bank “grinding towards $5000/oz before year-end and higher in 2027.”

At $4,355, that forecast now implies a meaningful rebound.

The next test is whether stronger yields keep forcing liquidation, or whether RBC is right that the Dollar, debt concerns and renewed investor flows have become more important than rates alone.

XAU/USD Current Price: $4,345 Fresh United States attacks on Iran fueled speculation about mounting inflationary pressures.The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond surged to its highest in over a year. XAU/USD trades at fresh two-week lows and aims to extend its slump.The US Dollar (USD) accelerates its advance against the precious metal in the American session on Tuesday, following news indicating United States (US) forces launched attacks on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran, as reported by the US Central Command (CENTCOM). Explosions were reported on Qeshm Island, around the Strait of Hormuz, and across southern Iran.  

Crude Oil prices soared with the headlines, while bond yields followed through amid prospects of mounting inflationary pressures leading to interest rate hikes. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond surged to its highest since January 2025, currently hovering around 4.79%.

 The US decision to strike its rival came after recent attacks on commercial vessels and US personnel in the region. Also, US President Donald Trump was said to be considering a CENTCOM  plan for limited attacks aimed at preventing Tehran from rebuilding radar and missile capabilities.

Earlier in the day, the US reported that the manufacturing sector lost some momentum, as the August ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 55.6 in July to 54.6, also missing expectations of 55.2. Additionally, the number of job openings rose slightly to 7.271 million in July from 7.182 million in June, according to the JOLTS Job Opening report. The reading also came below expectations of 7.3 million.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook:

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish, as it holds below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,474.45 and the 100-period SMA at $4,482.54. The metal is still supported by the 200-period SMA at $4,295.85, but downside pressure dominates, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heading firmly south, despite being in oversold territory.

Technical readings in the daily chart support the bearish case as the pair extends its slide below the 100-day SMA at $4,365.54, after failing to recover beyond the 20-day SMA at $4,443.71. The same chart shows that the Momentum indicator has slipped into negative territory, while the RSI pierces its midline, hinting at mounting selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA at $4,474.45, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,482.54, where recovery attempts could stall. On the downside, immediate support aligns with the current price area near $4,345.41, ahead of the more significant 200-period SMA at $4,295.85, a break of which would open the door to a deeper corrective leg despite the already oversold momentum backdrop.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bitcoin (BTC) maintains sideways trading around the immediate $78,000 support on Tuesday. The Crypto King outlook shows signs of cooling after the recent rally above $81,000. However, its downside remains protected, with major moving averages providing support and steady capital inflows absorbing some selling pressure.

Meanwhile, Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a neutral-to-bearish technical outlook, trading slightly below $4,400. This marks a 7% drop from its August peak of $4,697 and exerts pressure on support established by the main moving averages.

US JOLTS Job Openings tick upUnited States (US) job openings edged up to 7.271 million in July from 7.182 million in June, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release, marginally missing consensus forecasts of 7.3 million.

The BLS also noted that hires and total separations were largely unchanged at 5.1 million, with quits (3.1 million) and layoffs/discharges (1.7 million) showing minimal movement.

JOLTS figures help gauge labor demand in the world’s largest economy. However, the data is a month delayed. Although the increase is slight, it could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likelihood of raising interest rates, especially with inflation still above the 2% target.

Market participants are currently pricing in a 66% probability that the Fed will increase the rates to the 3.75%-4.00% range in September’s review cycle, up from 60% last week and 33% the previous month, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

FedWatch tool | Source: CME GroupCapital inflows surge as Bitcoin stallsCryptocurrency-related funds experienced a notable increase in inflows last week to more than $3.2 billion, their largest weekly intake since October 2025. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest crypto Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), recorded $928 million in inflows last week, building on the previous week’s $1.3 billion and marking its strongest two-week run since October 2025.

“As a result, crypto funds have averaged over $1.3 billion in weekly inflows over the last four weeks, their largest four-week average in ten months,” The Kobeissi Letter highlighted in an X post.

Meanwhile, Gold funds recorded more than $7.3 billion in inflows last week, also their largest uptake in ten months.

Crypto fund inflows | Source: The Kobeissi Letter“Market signals remain healthy overall, with soft derivatives activity, encouraging ETF flows and spot volumes cooling from last week’s extreme levels,” K33 Research said in a weekly market report, adding “BTC is also behaving more like Gold than US equities, with its 90-day Gold correlation at an all-time high and its Nasdaq correlation near yearly lows.”

Technical analysis: Bitcoin tests short-term supportBitcoin trades at $78,251, extending its advance well above the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a firmly bullish near-term bias with layered trend support beneath the price. Momentum remains constructive, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with a still-above-zero line and a fading but positive profile, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69 hovers just below overbought, hinting at strong but maturing upside pressure.

BTC/USDT daily chartOn the downside, initial support lies at the $72,348 region marked by the 200-day EMA, which underpins the broader uptrend, followed by the 50-day EMA at $70,044 and the 100-day EMA at $69,089 as a deeper demand zone if a corrective pullback unfolds.

With no nearby technical resistance in the current dataset on the daily chart, the pair’s topside remains open, and traders will likely monitor price around the immediate $78,000 support area for signs of consolidation, especially as RSI flirts with overbought levels and MACD momentum gradually cools.

Gold technical analysis: XAU slides as support flips into resistanceGold holds a bullish near-term bias as the metal remains above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, clustered between roughly $4,315 and $4,364, suggesting a still-supported uptrend despite the recent pullback.

The descending trendline now runs below the spot price, with its break point around $4,271 acting as an additional structural floor, while the RSI has eased to 48, hinting at consolidative rather than impulsive downside.

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has retreated into negative territory, reinforcing waning bullish momentum rather than a full trend reversal as long as price holds above these underlying averages.

XAU/USDT daily chartImmediate support lies at the 100-day EMA near $4,364, followed by the 50-day EMA at $4,337 and the 200-day EMA at $4,315, all forming a dense demand zone that could attract dip buyers on further weakness. Below this cluster, the descending trendline break around $4,271 is the next key level to watch, where a daily close under that area would significantly weaken the bullish structure and open the door to a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.

The Australian dollar reversed off a multi-year resistance zone after an eight-week advance, leaving U.S. jobs data to set the next move. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the weekly, daily and four-hour charts and explains where the uptrend stays intact and what would signal it is breaking.

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that positioning in Gold remains resilient despite a more hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh. While the recent rally is seen as premature given lingering inflation concerns and renewed hike pricing for 2027, they argue the broader backdrop has improved and do not foresee material downside as Dollar debasement and uncertain Fed hikes support precious metals.

Yellow metal holds firm post-Jackson Hole"Fed Chair Warsh struck a more hawkish tone in his Jackson Hole speech as he acknowledged the inflation concerns."

"This has sapped some life from the precious metals complex as expected, but thus far pricing has remained well-supported."

"Hike pricing has increased to just over two hikes in 2027 again, and we have argued the recent rally in gold was too early due to these lingering inflation concerns."

"Moving forward, we do not anticipate material downside for the yellow metal as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain."

"Positioning in gold is holding firm in the aftermath of a more hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, while renewed tensions in the Middle East see CTAs turn buyers in crude oil."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

USD/CHF ticks higher on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) recoups most of the previous day’s losses. Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and rising US Treasury yields keep the Greenback underpinned near its recent highs. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8103, up roughly 0.24% on the day.

Fed rate hike expectations have strengthened following Chair Kevin Warsh’s tough stance on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Warsh said the central bank would have more work to do if policymakers were not confident that inflation was returning to the 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see around a 65% probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting.

In contrast, subdued inflation in Switzerland, near the lower end of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0%-2% price-stability range, supports expectations that the central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% at its upcoming meetings. Switzerland’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are due on Wednesday. Headline inflation is expected to be flat on a monthly basis after declining 0.1% in July, while the annual rate is forecast to rise to 0.5% from 0.4%.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, USD/CHF holds above the key moving averages and retains a constructive bullish tone. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8091 underpins the pair as immediate support, with the 100-day SMA at 0.7987 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7934 reinforcing a broader positive backdrop.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54 suggests moderate upside momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, hinting that buying pressure is gradually rebuilding after a recent pullback.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the horizontal barrier at 0.8150, ahead of a higher cap at 0.8200, where fresh offers could emerge. On the downside, a daily close below the 50-day SMA at 0.8091 would weaken the short-term bias and expose the next support layers at 0.7987 and 0.7934, where the longer-term SMAs are clustered and would be expected to attract dip-buying interest.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.22%0.13%0.22%0.22%0.25%0.25%0.24%EUR-0.22%-0.08%0.02%-0.01%0.03%0.02%0.02%GBP-0.13%0.08%0.09%0.09%0.11%0.11%0.10%JPY-0.22%-0.02%-0.09%-0.00%0.01%0.03%-0.00%CAD-0.22%0.00%-0.09%0.00%0.02%0.00%-0.01%AUD-0.25%-0.03%-0.11%-0.01%-0.02%0.00%-0.04%NZD-0.25%-0.02%-0.11%-0.03%-0.01%-0.00%-0.01%CHF-0.24%-0.02%-0.10%0.00%0.01%0.04%0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Industrial Demand and Key Technical Levels That being said, the World Silver Survey looks for industrial consumption to fall 3% in 2026, partially because of everything going on. And there have been some pundits out there marking down their longer-term forecast for the year to $68, such as major bank ING.

Ultimately, this is a market that is testing a couple of major moving averages, and if we were to break down below there, we could see a return to the $60 level. That’s an area that had been significant support previously. $70 still looks to be a bit resistant, and right now, we’re right in the middle of that with these moving averages.

Keep in mind the jobs report is on Friday, so the later we get into the week, the choppier and more sideways this could become, as we wait for that major news release.

Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

Gold (XAU/USD) resumed its decline on Tuesday, following a flat performance on Monday, reaching fresh two-week lows at $4,375 so far, posting a nearly 7% decline from last week’s peak, near $4,700. Precious metals are struggling this week as hawkish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole summit on Friday provided a fresh boost to the USD.

Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the US Dollar has “recovered most of yesterday’s pullback” as policy expectations remain firmly skewed toward further tightening. They also highlight that “Fed funds futures price in 67% odds of a 25bps hike on September 16 and imply 60bps of tightening over the next twelve months,” with market “pricing [set to] remain elevated into the September meeting.”

In their view, however, “August CPI on September 11” will be the “decisive test” to see whether those rate expectations – and the Dollar’s recovery – can be sustained.

Technical Analysis: Next downside target is at $4,315

XAU/USD trades at $4,378, with momentum indicators in the daily chart entering bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing levels below the key 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped below zero, pointing to increasing downside pressure.

Immediate support is seen at the mid-August lows between $ 4,310 and $4,330. Further down, the August 6 low, near $4,225, would come into view. On the topside, previous support at the $4,450 area has now turned resistance and is likely to test rallies, ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,530 and last week's highs, near $4,700.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its pullback from the more-than-three-month high touched last week and falls to a fresh two-week low on Tuesday. Rising expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and fresh tensions in the Middle East remain the main drivers behind the latest leg lower. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,376, down roughly 1.60% on the day.

Following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s tough rhetoric on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium, interest rate hike bets are firmly back on the table. Traders now see the central bank raising borrowing costs as soon as this month, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 65% probability of a hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from roughly 40% a week ago.

The hawkish repricing helps the US Dollar (USD) recover some of its recent losses, while US Treasury yields resume their advance. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.60, near the two-week high of 99.72 reached on Friday and retested on Monday. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rises to around 4.80%, its highest level since January 2025.

A firmer US Dollar makes Dollar-denominated Gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

At the same time, rising Oil prices are adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that worldwide central banks may need to keep monetary policy tight. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil advances for the second consecutive day following the latest flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in a month over the weekend, while a tanker was hit by three unidentified projectiles while sailing out of the strait, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said on Tuesday.

Typically, inflation and geopolitical concerns support Gold. However, the market is currently reacting through the interest rate channel, and the metal tends to perform poorly when interest rates and Treasury yields rise.

Sellers are therefore likely to retain the upper hand in the near term, although upcoming US economic data and developments in the Middle East could trigger fresh volatility.

Tuesday’s US economic calendar features the August ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and July JOLTS Job Openings. Attention will then shift to the ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD extends decline, eyes support near $4,350

On the daily chart, XAU/USD extends its decline below the 200-day SMA and is now testing the 100-day SMA near $4,365, a level that also aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $4,350, forming a key support zone. A daily close below this cluster would tilt the near-term bias bearish, exposing the 61.8% retracement near $4,267.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 sits near the midline, hinting at balanced conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, suggesting waning bullish momentum after the recent pullback.

On the downside, a break below the $4,350-$4,365 support zone would open the door toward $4,267 (61.8% retracement), followed by $4,149 (78.6% retracement) and the prior cycle low near $4,000.

On the upside, initial resistance emerges at $4,432 (38.2% retracement), with a stronger barrier near $4,530 (200-day SMA) and $4,534 (23.6% retracement). A sustained break above this zone would open the path toward the $4,700 region.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator ISM Manufacturing PMI The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

Read more.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.

Gold traded around 4,460 USD per ounce on Tuesday, remaining near a two-week low. Pressure on the metal has intensified due to rising oil prices and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which have significantly increased expectations of an imminent US rate hike.

Oil rose for a second consecutive session following US strikes on an island in the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory attacks by Iran on the UAE and Jordan. Rising energy prices are adding to inflation risks and strengthening the case for Fed tightening – an unfavourable backdrop for gold.

Kevin Warsh said the Fed will have more work to do unless stronger evidence shows inflation is returning to its 2% target. Markets now price in more than a 65% chance of a rate hike as early as September, up from about 36% before his comments.

Despite the current correction, August was a strong month for gold, with the metal gaining around 10%. The main support came from the US Treasury’s decision to double long-term bond buybacks, which reignited demand for the debasement trade and heightened concerns about the dollar’s stability.

Technical analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 4,433 USD level. An expansion of the range towards 4,500 USD on the upside and 4,377 USD on the downside cannot be ruled out today. Given the break below the upward channel at 4,460 USD, a further decline towards 4,320 USD remains the main scenario. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below the centre line and trending downward, indicating continued short-term downside momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 4,395 USD, followed by a correction to 4,464 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming below 4,500 USD. A downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 4,377 USD, with scope for a further decline to 4,318 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20, indicating continued short-term downside pressure.

ConclusionGold has retreated to a two-week low as hawkish Fed signals and rising geopolitical tensions have strengthened the case for higher US interest rates. Oil prices have risen following renewed military action in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing inflation risks and pushing the likelihood of a September rate hike above 65%. While gold posted strong gains in August – up about 10% – supported by US Treasury bond buybacks and concerns over the dollar, the short-term outlook remains bearish. Technically, further downside towards 4,377 USD and potentially 4,318 USD appears likely, with the metal’s direction hinging on US economic data and geopolitical developments.

Hello Traders, in today’s blog we’re reviewing the $XAGUSD wave count shared with members, which highlighted a strong bullish outlook. The Elliott Wave pattern confirmed the move right at the extreme/high‑frequency zone, propelling prices sharply higher.

XAGUSD After Completing Major Correction from All‑Time Highs

Silver peaked earlier this year at 121.503 on January 29, 2026, before entering a six‑month corrective phase that concluded at 3940.68 on July 17, 2026. From that low, Silver rallied to complete wave (4) at 62.548, then turned higher, finishing wave 1 of a new nest. Price has since pulled back in a proposed wave 2, holding against the 62.548 pivot.

The Forecast: Completion of Wave ((iv)) Correction

The setup identified Silver at a decisive turning point following a corrective pullback from the peak near $67.84. After completing a multi‑wave bullish impulse into wave ((iii))/(v) above $67.00, price action unfolded into a corrective three‑wave (a)‑(b)‑(c) decline, designated as sub‑wave ((iv)).

The projected target zone for wave (c) of ((iv)) was between the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 63.211 and the 161.8% expansion at 61.144. The trade bias was clearly defined as “Turning Up”, with the explicit warning: “We Do Not Recommend Selling.” Traders were instructed to wait for the corrective wave to terminate within or near the target zone before initiating long positions.

The invalidation level was set at 56.614 (wave ((ii)) low), where a break below would negate the bullish structure. See below chart

The After Analysis

The follow‑up chart confirms that the wave projection unfolded almost exactly as anticipated (Note: We had some degree adjustments). Wave C of (4) completed squarely within the target zone, bottoming at 62.548—just above the updated invalidation level—before buyers stepped in aggressively.

From the 62.548 floor, Silver launched into a clean 5‑wave micro‑impulse, driving price through $70.00 and topping at 70.739. With Wave 1 complete at 70.739, the market is now undergoing a minor corrective consolidation in Wave 2, proposed as a three‑swing structure, setting the stage for the next upside leg. See chart below

Comparative Setup Overview

Between the August 19 “Before” forecast and the August 22 “After” execution, the market transitioned from the tail end of a Wave ((iv)) correction into a fully completed Wave 1 impulse. The initial setup targeted an entry zone between 63.211 and 61.144, which ultimately bottomed cleanly at 62.548.

As the primary trend resumed, the invalidation level was raised from 56.614 to 62.548 to lock in profit protection. The resulting rally drove price to a peak of 70.739, marking a +$8.19 / +13.1% rebound and fully validating the “Right Side” bullish bias.

What’s Next for Silver in the Coming Weeks?

As charts progress, the structures and labeling naturally evolve. At the time of writing, wave 2 is proposed to have ended as a flat correction and is now turning higher, with the invalidation level maintained at 62.548. As long as price holds above this pivot, Silver is expected to continue advancing to eventually complete wave (5) of higher degree within wave ((1)). From there, the market would be positioned for a corrective pullback in wave ((2)) against the July lows, before resuming the broader bullish cycle. See chart below

Why choose EWF ?

At Elliottwave Forecast (EWF), we deliver consistent market updates through regular charts update. Our analysts update 1‑hour charts four times daily and 4‑hour charts once per day across all 78 instruments. In addition, we host five live sessions each day and maintain a 24‑hour chatroom, providing clients with real‑time market guidance and answers to any questions they may have.

You can start a 14‑day trial with us today here and cancel anytime by emailing [email protected]

Follow on X @NgcoboGen

Elliott Wave Forecasthttps://elliottwave-forecast.com

ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is sharply lower early Tuesday after crossing decisively to the weak side of a short-term pivot at $66.87. This level is now resistance.

The downside momentum created by the sell-off could drive XAGUSD into the intermediate 50% level at $62.98. Look for a possible technical bounce on the initial test of this price, but if it fails, the move could extend into the 50-day moving average at $61.51.

The major support area is the 50% level of the record high at $60.835 and the more-than-one-month low at $54.78.

What to Watch Friday’s jobs data is running the silver trade for the rest of the week. Warsh set the bar at Jackson Hole. The 10-year at 4.78% and crude above $90 are both pointed against the metal and both are tied to the same inflation story. A firm payroll number with stronger wages keeps the rate pressure on silver and gives sellers more room to work with. Softer employment data would force a repricing of September odds and that is the only thing that gives silver a clean bid from here. Gold is not providing cover. The dollar is firm. The metal is fighting every headwind at once going into the jobs week.

Silver broke the pivot at $66.87 Tuesday and that level is now resistance above. The intermediate 50% at $62.98 is the next level where buyers have a reason to show up. Below that, the 50-day moving average sits at $61.51 and the major support zone runs from $60.835 down to $54.78. Silver needs to hold above $62.98 on this move or the sell-off from August’s highs starts looking like more than profit-taking.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Prefer us on Google

Summary:

The EUR/USD remains vulnerable below 1.1621 as USD strength still remains despite Monday's pullback move to the upside. Current Setup Current sentiment: cautiously bearish EUR/USD.

The pair is up 0.33% on the day and trading around 1.1616. The modest intraday recovery comes as traders who were long USD take profits. However, sentiment still favors USD strength, and that is why this bias for EUR/USD is cautiously bearish. The Euro is getting some support from expectations of a potential rate hike by the European Central Bank in September, especially as renewed tensions between the US and Iran have driven oil prices higher and raised concerns about imported inflation in the Eurozone. 

Macro Drivers for the EUR/USD 1) Fed Hawkish Expectations

After the Fed Chair’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, 28 August, markets are now pricing in a much higher probability of a September Fed hike. US bond yields rose sharply, which continues to support the dollar while limiting the EUR/USD’s upside. This upside retracement was capped at 1.1621 on 31 August.

2) The ECB Policy Meeting

The ECB is also expected to raise rates in September in direct response to the hike in oil prices following the renewed tensions in the Middle East. Eurozone yields have also risen sharply, which should be ok to ward off a major euro sell-off unless the ECB disappoints and the Fed’s monetary policy expectations are repriced more hawkishly.

3) Geopolitics

Renewed US-Iran military tensions are keeping Brent crude above $90/barrel. This supports defensive positioning into the dollar, even as the risk of imported inflation makes an ECB rate hike more likely. Geopolitics is clouding the EUR/USD outlook, and the next two weeks should provide additional clarity on the situation.

Price Catalysts This Week 1. Non-Farm Payrolls: The major price catalyst this week is the Non-Farm Payrolls report. A weak payrolls report undermines any September Fed-hike expectations. This could strongly support EUR/USD amid ECB rate-hike expectations. However, a better-than-expected US jobs report favors additional dollar strength.

2. Other Macroeconomic Data: Other price catalysts include the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data and the Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimates YoY (2.5% consensus vs 2.5% prior).

3. Brent crude prices: This is important to establish the level of defensive positioning into the US Dollars, and also the extent to which any ECB rate hike bets are repriced.

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast Scenarios Base case: EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.1640.

Bull case: Euro gets support from hawkish ECB expectations. Additionally, weak US jobs data → fall in Fed hike expectations → weaker USD → allows EUR/USD to rebound toward 1.17.

Bear case: strong US jobs data + higher oil prices + hawkish Fed → reinforces USD strength. EUR/USD breaks 1.1570 and targets 1.1550.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook Technically, 1.1621 (31 August intraday high) is the next important resistance. Below it, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to 1.1577, followed by the 8 June and 4 August lows at 1.1506. A breakdown of 1.1577 support unlocks the downward path to a retest of the uncapped neckline of the completed double bottom at 1.1506.

On the flip side, a break of 1.1621 clears the pathway to 1.1682. A further move north brings in 1.1743, a potential pitstop before 1.1813 comes into the picture.

TL;DR: The Bank of Canada’s Wednesday hold at 2.25% is fully priced, but economist consensus (first hike in Q4 2027) and market pricing (roughly 1.76 hikes by March 2027) disagree sharply on what comes next — making the statement’s tone, not the decision itself, the real driver for USD/CAD.

Everyone Expects a Hold. Almost Nobody Agrees on What Happens Next The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its rate at 2.25% on Wednesday. All 35 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast a hold, and market pricing agrees. If that’s all traders cared about, this would be a low-drama meeting. But the agreement ends almost immediately after Wednesday.

The Reuters consensus sees the first BoC hike only in Q4 2027. Among economists who provided a forecast, fewer than half expect even one increase by the end of Q2 2027. CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld describes the Bank as being in a “watchful-waiting stance,” with inflation concerns roughly balanced by growth risks from the Canada-US trade conflict.

Markets aren’t waiting nearly that long. OIS pricing as of Sept. 1 embeds roughly 1.76 quarter-point hikes by March 3, 2027, with that meeting carrying around 76.8% marginal probability of an increase. In other words, the market’s center of gravity for tighter policy sits several quarters ahead of economist consensus.

That’s the real story heading into Wednesday: the hold is priced; the timing of the next hike is not.

Survey Says Late 2027. Some Banks Say October. There’s an important reason not to treat the survey-market gap as a simple contest over who has the better forecast. Each economist in a Reuters poll submits a single path they consider most likely. Markets have to price every plausible path at once. A smaller probability of something much more hawkish can therefore drag OIS pricing forward even if most forecasters still expect a long pause.

National Bank and Scotiabank show exactly what that hawkish scenario looks like. Both expect the BoC to hike to 2.50% in October and again to 2.75% in December — more than a year ahead of the Reuters consensus.

OIS doesn’t say those banks are right. October remains a minority outcome. But it says the possibility is real enough to matter. So there are really three positions rather than two: most economists expect the BoC to wait until late 2027, National Bank and Scotia see tightening beginning this autumn, and markets sit somewhere in between — pricing an earlier move than consensus without fully embracing the aggressive 2026 path.

Two New Forces May Be Pulling Pricing Forward The difference between probability-weighted market pricing and single-path forecasts is the most defensible explanation for the gap. But the timing also raises two interesting questions.

The Reuters poll closed on Aug. 28, before renewed US-Iran fighting pushed Brent back above $90. Canada is an oil exporter, so higher crude can support CAD directly, while persistent energy inflation could also make the BoC less comfortable leaving rates unchanged for an extended period. It’s plausible this week’s oil shock has pushed Canadian rate expectations higher — we can’t prove that without a comparable OIS snapshot from before the escalation, so it should remain a hypothesis rather than a conclusion.

US rates are another possibility. Treasury yields have surged after Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and the US 10-year is now challenging 4.8%. Canadian OIS could be participating in a broader North American rates repricing rather than reflecting a purely domestic rethink. That distinction will become clearer if Canadian pricing starts moving independently after Wednesday.

With No New Forecasts, Watch Every Change in Tone There’s no new Monetary Policy Report this week — the next MPR comes Oct. 28. That strips away one of the usual numerical signals and leaves statement language and Governor Macklem’s press conference with more work to do.

A more hawkish Bank would give OIS pricing greater credibility. Markets will listen for less concern about trade-related downside risk, greater emphasis on inflation near the top of the 1–3% target band, or any suggestion that recent economic resilience has reduced the need for caution.

A more dovish tone would strengthen economist consensus. If the BoC continues emphasizing weak demand, trade uncertainty, and temporary or externally driven price pressure, the argument for waiting well into 2027 would become easier to defend.

Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers speak at 10:30 ET, and with the rate itself almost predetermined, changes in emphasis — or conspicuous omissions from July’s message — could drive the Canadian Dollar reaction.

Friday Tests Both Sides of USD/CAD Wednesday may not even be the most important day for the pair this week. Canada and the US both release employment reports Friday, Sept. 4.

Canada enters the report with a surprisingly constructive recent trend. Employment has risen for three consecutive months, with roughly 181,000 jobs added since April, while unemployment fell to 6.4% in July, the lowest in two years. If that continues, the market’s earlier BoC-hike pricing gains another argument. If the labor market rolls over, the watchful-waiting camp gets stronger evidence that the Bank should stay patient.

Then there’s US NFP. Strong US jobs could reinforce Warsh-driven Fed repricing and support the Dollar even if Canadian data are solid. Weak NFP could undercut the USD side of the pair. Wednesday tests BoC expectations. Friday tests both sides of USD/CAD.

Oil Could Reinforce CAD, or Complicate the Whole Trade Brent around $92 adds another variable. Oil is pressing toward the upper side of a multi-week triangle, with descending resistance around $94.83 and rising support near $84.56. Renewed US-Iran confrontation means either boundary could become vulnerable to a headline-driven break.

A sustained rise in crude would normally favor CAD through Canada’s terms of trade. In the current cycle, though, it could also feed inflation concerns and strengthen the case for earlier BoC tightening, giving the Canadian Dollar a second channel of support. But geopolitical oil shocks also feed US inflation and Treasury yields, so oil isn’t a one-directional USD/CAD signal — it’s another reason to avoid treating the current OIS-survey gap as settled before this week’s events play out.

ActionForex’s Technical View on USD/CAD: Bounced, But Not Reversed The charts tell a similarly unresolved story. USD/CAD has recovered from 1.3730, but the bounce still looks corrective against the decline from 1.4247. Last week’s broad Dollar strength wasn’t enough to push the pair through 1.3927, the 38.2% retracement of that fall, and price remains below descending near-term resistance.

Momentum is neutral. The 4H RSI is around 50 and the MACD is hovering close to zero — neither supports the claim that a new bullish trend has begun.

As long as 1.3927 caps upside, another move lower remains favored. A break of 1.3823 would be the first sign the rebound is ending and put 1.3730 back in focus. A break of 1.3730 would resume bearish pressure and reopen the larger downside.

The alternative is clear too. A firm move above 1.3927 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup and target 1.4002, where former support has turned into resistance.

1.4002 Separates Correction From a Bigger Reassessment The daily chart puts that near-term battle into broader context. The recovery from 1.3480 is still treated as corrective within the medium-term downtrend. It may already have completed as a three-wave rise to 1.4247, or that move may represent the first leg of a larger correction. Either interpretation still allows another test of 1.3480 while 1.4002 holds.

This creates a clean fundamental-technical bridge for Wednesday. If the BoC sounds comfortable waiting well into 2027, USD/CAD could finally push through 1.3927 and test whether 1.4002 can hold. If Macklem sounds closer to the market’s earlier tightening timeline, the rebound from 1.3730 could fail before those levels and the broader bearish structure would stay intact.

Either way, Wednesday’s answer is unlikely to come from the 2.25% printed at the top of the decision. It will come from how the Bank talks about what happens next — and whether that sounds more like economist consensus, market pricing, or the increasingly hawkish minority already calling for an October hike.

Key Takeaways Wednesday’s BoC hold at 2.25% is fully priced by both economists and markets, but the two diverge sharply on timing: Q4 2027 (Reuters consensus) versus roughly 1.76 hikes priced by March 2027 (OIS). National Bank and Scotiabank represent the hawkish tail, expecting hikes to 2.50% in October and 2.75% in December, more than a year ahead of consensus. With no new Monetary Policy Report this week, statement language and Macklem’s press conference tone carry more weight than usual for gauging which camp is right. Friday’s dual Canada-US employment reports may matter more than Wednesday’s decision, testing both the BoC repricing story and the Warsh-driven Fed repricing simultaneously. USD/CAD stays capped below 1.3927 resistance for now; a hawkish BoC tone could push through toward 1.4002, while a dovish tone risks a break of 1.3823 and a retest of 1.3730.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

EUR/USD is trading below 1.16 as the euro comes under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, weaker German retail sales and rising oil prices ahead of Eurozone inflation data.

DXY rebound helped by rising front-end US yields
DXY-gold inverse correlation strengthens to -0.92 over past week
Gold’s bear pennant warns of renewed downside.
The US dollar is finding support as front-end Treasury yields push higher following Kevin Walsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech. The renewed bid is weighing on gold, which is coiling within a bearish technical structure that warns of another potential leg lower.

Dollar bid returns

Source: TradingView

As noted in a separate post released in August, which flagged the potential for prior US dollar weakness to reverse, DXY has regained its mojo over the past week, rebounding strongly after twin failures beneath a support zone including the 50% retracement of the January to June bull move. That has seen it reclaim the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fib retracement of the same move, before eventually stalling at the 100-day moving average on Monday.

However, having tested the 38.2% Fib again in early trade on Tuesday, the price has rebounded over the remainder of the Asian session, pointing to the potential for a retest of the 100-day moving average, then resistance at 100 overhead.

The price action in DXY closely mirrors shifts in the shape of the US Fed funds futures curve between June and December this year, with tightening priced by year-end rising to 34 basis points, up from less than 25 basis points before Kevin Walsh’s speech at Jackson Hole last Friday.

DXY tracking front end yields again

Source: TradingView, FOREX.com

The correlation matrix above shows a sharp increase in DXY’s positive relationship with front-end US yields over the past week, particularly the two-year tenor, where the correlation has jumped to 0.87. The relationship diminishes the further out the curve you go, falling to just 0.16 with the 30-year.

At the same time, DXY’s already strong inverse relationship with gold has strengthened further, lifting to -0.92 over the past five days, hinting that further dollar upside could spark renewed downside in gold.

Looking at the price action in XAU/USD, those risks may already be materialising.

Gold threatens another leg lower

Source: TradingView

Gold bulls will still be licking their wounds after Friday’s lurch lower, which saw the price take out the uptrend that had been in place from before the bullish breakout in early August. In the period since, the price has been consolidating in a narrowing range, struggling beneath $4,450, a level that acted as both support and resistance over recent weeks.

The abrupt downward move followed by the contracting price range resembles a bear pennant, warning of a potential resumption of the prior bearish move and retest of lower levels. The first of which is $4,400, where the price bounced on Friday, followed by $4,367, which has previously acted as both support and resistance, then $4,315, which provided support for periods in August.

The message from the oscillators is one of sustained downside pressure, with RSI (14) pushing back towards oversold territory at 30. MACD confirms the bearish message, continuing to trade beneath the signal line in negative territory.

Of course, if the price manages to break above pennant resistance, it would point to the potential for a move back towards resistance at $4,525.

Gold is trying to find its footing following the sell-off. The fate of XAUUSD depends on the dollar and Treasury yields. The US dollar ended August with its second consecutive close in the red. Despite a successful end to the summer thanks to Kevin Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ rhetoric at Jackson Hole, the USD index fell over the month due to the Treasury’s intention to lower long-term Treasury yields, slowing inflation, a cooling labour market and a reduced likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy.

At the turn of August and September, the probability of a federal funds rate hike at the next FOMC meeting jumped above 60%. This allowed the USD index to partially recoup its losses. Rumours are circulating in the market that Kevin Warsh, with his speech at Jackson Hole, not only corrected the communication errors of his previous remarks but also restored confidence. His departure, coupled with the Treasury’s intention to control Treasury yields, laid the groundwork for a ‘debasement trade’.

As a result, gold capitalised on the decline in investor interest in bonds and currencies and soared by almost 10% in August. This marks the best performance since January, despite a loss of more than 3% due to Kevin Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ speech and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude above $90 per barrel, increasing the risks of accelerating inflation and a tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy.

And yet, the main factor behind a potential correction in XAUUSD could be a return of confidence in the Fed Chair. According to Donald Trump, Kevin Warsh will ultimately do what he is supposed to do. Scott Bessent argues that the Treasury and the central bank are working in tandem and puts forward a case for keeping rates unchanged at the next FOMC meeting.

Wells Fargo believes the US dollar will weaken by the end of September as the Fed disappoints markets. The central bank will not tighten monetary policy. This would lead to a continuation of the upward trend in gold prices.

The precious metal is under pressure as global debt market yields return to their highest levels since 2008. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds are at 19-year highs. It is believed that gold, which does not pay interest, cannot compete with Treasuries when rates are rising.

The FxPro Analyst Team

FxProhttp://www.fxpro.co.uk/?ib=606792

FxPro is an award-winning online broker offering Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on forex, futures, spot indices, shares, spot metals and spot energies. FxPro serves clients in over 150 countries worldwide and offers multilingual customer support 24/5. Trading CFDs involves significant risk of loss.

NZDUSD finds support The New Zealand dollar (NZDUSD) shares the same rhetoric as the Aussie, with a jump lower to begin its consolidation phase. A break above the key area of 0.5940 would suggest a strong bullish drive, and potentially open the door to a sustained recovery.

Silver (XAG/USD) remains practically flat on Tuesday, holding most of Friday’s losses and trading at $66.60 at the time of writing, with price action contained within the previous day’s range. The broader bullish trend from late July lows remains in play, but failure to breach Monday’s high, at $67.47, might increase pressure on a key support area around $65.50.

Precious metals are looking for direction in a calm trading session on Tuesday, with US Dollar volatility subdued. The impulse from the US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments on Friday has worn off, and investors await key employment data due later this week for a better assessment of the outcome of September’s monetary policy decision.

Technical Analysis: Holding above the ascending trendline support

XAG/USD trades at $66.47, following a sharp reversal from the $71.00 area last week. The near-term structure remains positive, but Friday's bearish engulfing candle is an important bearish sign, and a clear break of the $65.50 area where trendline support crosses Monday's low would confirm a deeper reversal.

Momentum indicators in the daily chart offer a mixed picture, with the Relative Strength Index (14) mildly positive above the 50 level, whereas the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned negative, reinforcing the idea of a waning bullish phase and increasing risk of a corrective pullback.

Bulls should break Monday's high at $67.47 to shift the focus again towards the resistance area between the mid-June highs, at $71.75 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.64. On the downside, below the mentioned $65.50 area, bears might be attracted by the August 19 low, at the $62.20 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded around 1.3547 on Monday after last week's Dollar rebound knocked Sterling back from six-month highs.

Friday's US employment report should determine whether that correction extends.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.355175 (+0.13%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.161853 (+0.31%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 159.75691 (-0.22%)

WEEKLY RECAP:

GBP/USD climbed above 1.3640 early last week before coming under sustained pressure, ending Friday at 1.3534.

The Dollar strengthened after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech to underline continued concern over underlying inflation.

Markets subsequently raised the probability of a September rate increase, while Barclays switched its forecast to two further Fed hikes this year.

MUFG economists described Warsh's message as hawkish, but added: “Overall, the speech was hawkish, but this is not new for Warsh.”

There remains disagreement over whether the Fed will actually deliver.

ING's Francesco Pesole said: “we remain reasonably confident in our call for the Fed to hold on 16 September and, by extension, in a weaker dollar.”

The Dollar edged lower again on Monday as traders looked towards this week's data.

Sterling has its own policy uncertainty.

BoE hike expectations softened last week, but recovering UK-US yield spreads have helped limit Pound selling.

Scotiabank noted that the recovery was “offering fundamental support” to Sterling, while its strategists continue to see the broader Dollar trend as lower.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Payrolls Hold the Key Tuesday brings UK manufacturing PMI and mortgage approvals, while US ISM manufacturing and JOLTS vacancies should provide the first important Dollar tests.

Wednesday's ADP employment report is followed on Thursday by UK services PMI, US jobless claims and ISM services.

Friday combines UK construction PMI and a speech from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey with the crucial US payroll report.

Non-farm employment is forecast to increase by 55,000, unemployment to remain at 4.1% and hourly earnings to rise 0.3%.

Weak payrolls could return GBP/USD towards 1.3650.

Stronger hiring and hawkish Bailey caution would expose 1.3450.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The US Dollar (USD) trades slightly higher to near 1.3863 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Loonie pair remains broadly as ongoing trade tensions between the United States (US) and Canada have put the Canadian Dollar under pressure.

USD/CAD upside seen as trade tensions reinforce loonie’s funding roleAccording to TD Securities, the latest escalation in US–Canada trade tensions "reinforces the CAD's role as a carry funding currency" and leaves them cautious on the Loonie. In a punchier assessment, TD sums up the backdrop as "elbows up, USD/CAD up," noting that the trade tension escalation between the US and Canada "presents asymmetric upside risk in USD/CAD and reinforces CAD's role as a carry funding currency in the FX market."

This week, investors will pay close attention to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

BoC seen holding at 2.25% with balance sheet policy unchangedAnalysts at National Bank of Canada expect the BoC to stay firmly on the sidelines at the upcoming decision, noting that "the Bank of Canada is set to leave its overnight target unchanged at 2.25%, a decision widely expected by forecasters and OIS markets." They highlight that such an outcome "would mark the seventh consecutive hold," underscoring the central bank’s steady policy stance, and add that "we don't expect any changes to balance sheet policy," reinforcing the view that the current framework will be maintained.

Meanwhile, surging US Treasury Yields due to rising oil prices in the wake of renewed US-Iran war continue to offer support to the US Dollar.

On the domestic front, investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August and the JOLTS Job Openings data for July, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3865, maintaining a mildly bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3896 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3900. The pair’s inability to reclaim these nearby overhead levels keeps the latest rebound in check, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 43.5 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that upside momentum remains subdued for now.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the 20-period EMA at 1.3896 and the 50.0% retracement at 1.3900, followed higher by the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3982 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.4084. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3817, ahead of deeper structural levels at the 78.6% retracement at 1.3700 and the prior swing low area aligned with the 100% retracement at 1.3551.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Sep 02, 2026 13:45

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 2.25%

Previous: 2.25%

Source: Bank of Canada