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Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 35,718.35 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,563.21 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold increased to PKR 416,604.50 per tola from PKR 414,802.30 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

35,718.35

10 Grams

357,177.20

Tola

416,604.50

Troy Ounce

1,110,971.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,367.41 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,311.85 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold increased to INR 144,249.10 per tola from INR 143,603.00 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,367.41

10 Grams

123,672.40

Tola

144,249.10

Troy Ounce

384,696.80

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a part of the previous day's losses back closer to the monthly low. Any meaningful recovery, however, seems elusive amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. Crude oil prices have jumped over 10% this week as renewed US-Iran clashes stoked supply concerns, reviving inflation fears and lifting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer. This, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and undermining the non-yielding bullion.

The US-Iran conflict is entering a dangerous new phase as both sides exchanged intensifying fire on Thursday, with the latter expanding its military campaign beyond conventional military targets. In fact, officials in southern Iran's Bandar Abbas reported that civilian infrastructure – including power facilities and a train station – has been hit. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting US-allied Gulf nations. Tensions have also escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, with the US intercepting commercial vessels attempting to breach its naval blockade around Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had threatened to expand the conflict by targeting additional regional energy supply routes. In fact, Reuters reported that Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route. This helps crude oil prices in preserving the recent gains at a one-month high, reviving concerns about energy-driven inflation. Adding to this, the upbeat US macro data and hawkish comments from influential Fed officials reinforced expectations that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year.

The US Labor Department reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 208 K for the week ended July 11. The reading was below consensus estimates and underscored the resilience of the US labor market. Separately, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged from 10.3 to 41.4 in July, hitting its highest level since November 2021 and indicating a rapid acceleration in regional factory activity. Further details revealed that both price indicators continued to signal rising prices.

Furthermore, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that the positive news this week on consumer and wholesale prices still wasn’t good enough to signal real help for US households. She called for modestly higher interest rates to win a battle the central bank has been losing for the past five years. Apart from this, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that he would be open to raising rates if inflation does not show near-term improvement. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a nearly 75% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) Fed rate hike by December.

The aforementioned factors favor the USD bulls, suggesting that any subsequent recovery in the Gold price is more likely to be sold into and fizzle out rather quickly. Traders now look forward to Friday's US economic docket – featuring Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production data, and the prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. This, along with Fed speak, would drive the USD and provide some impetus to the Gold price, which remains on track to register losses for the second consecutive week.

XAU/USD daily chart

Gold’s bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful recoveryFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair has been trending lower along a downward-sloping channel and remains below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This reaffirms the near-term bearish outlook for Gold and suggests that rallies are likely to remain capped within the broader corrective phase. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned modestly positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40 hints at only a tentative stabilization rather than a sustained recovery.

Hence, any further move up could face an initial hurdle at the channel top near $4,082.74, with stronger structural resistance at the 200-day SMA clustered around $4,495.44. On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel at $3,661.05 acts as key support, and a decisive break below this zone would reinforce the prevailing bearish structure and expose further downside within the current trend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

But a strong recovery above $4,200 after a drop to $3,850 will increase the chances of an upside breakout. A break above $4,200 will push prices towards $4,350. On the other hand, a break above $4,350 will open the door for a move towards the $5,000 area. A break below $3,850 will increase the chances of a strong and quick drop in the gold market to mark the final low.

Gold Must Reclaim $4,200 to Confirm a Bullish Reversal The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows strong bearish price action since March 2026. The formation of rounding tops below $5,000 and then below $4,500 indicates bearish pressure in gold. Prices must recover above $4,200 in the short term to confirm bottom and initiate a rally towards $4,500. A break above $4,500 will be a positive sign and open the door for a move towards $5,000.

Silver price (XAG/USD) remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around $55.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Silver is on track to drop over 7% this week as escalating Middle East tensions drive oil prices up. This surge in energy costs has kept inflation and interest rate concerns at the absolute forefront of investors' minds, pulling momentum away from the non-yielding precious metal.

Reuters reported on Thursday that Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the critical Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure, presenting a potent new threat to global energy supplies. Amplifying these concerns, the Tasnim news agency reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Ahvaz, while very loud explosions were also heard in Kuwait and as far away as Basra.

These geopolitical flare-ups follow threats made earlier this week by US President Donald Trump, who stated the US would strike Iran's bridges and power plants next week if the country does not return to the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, this week's softer-than-expected US inflation data has effectively eliminated the chance of a July rate hike, even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterates his strict commitment to fighting inflation and restoring price stability. However, the market remains sharply divided over whether the Fed will resume tightening in September. This lingering uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on Silver, keeping the non-yielding metals under pressure.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to near an eight-month low around $3,975 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends its downside as rising tensions in the Middle East raise inflation concerns and reinforce expectations of elevated US interest rates.

Reuters reported on Thursday that Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure, posing a potent new threat to global energy supplies. This action came after US President Donald Trump’s threat to attack Iran's power infrastructure on Tuesday.

Any threat to the Red Sea risks hugely exacerbating the global energy crisis triggered by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and underscores the explosive risks stemming from a new round of warfare. This, in turn, could push crude oil prices up and could prompt central banks to hold rates at elevated levels for longer, weighing on gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

The developments surrounding Middle East conflicts overshadow recent optimism over easing inflation. Data released on Tuesday showed that US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in June, while data from Wednesday showed a decline in the Producer Price ‌Index (PPI). 

Traders are now pricing ‌in nearly a 55% odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold has reached a bearish technical milestone after broad-based selling pushed XAU/USD to its weakest daily close since October. While the broader trend favours further downside, nearby support levels and relatively subdued options positioning suggest bears may need to stay nimble.

View related analysis:

British Pound Surges on Treasury Pick Bets, GBP/AUD Eyes Breakout Nasdaq 100 Coils Ahead of ASML Earnings as AI Leadership Faces a Test US Dollar Slips, but Gold Bulls Are Not Out of the Woods Japanese Yen Short Covering Raises the Stakes for USD/JPY XAU/USD Posts First Daily Close Below 4,000 Since October Gold Breaks Below 4,000 as Dollar Steadies Gold futures saw a daily close below 4,000 for the first time since October on Thursday. And it didn’t take much of a rise in the US dollar for gold bears to enjoy their breakout. The US dollar index rose just 0.17%, recouping less than a third of the losses accumulated over the previous two days. I had already noted that gold appeared vulnerable to a break lower, given bulls had failed to make any impact despite the US dollar falling a full 1% on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Source: LSEG

Gold's Broad-Based Decline Raises Bearish Risks Gold’s losses weren’t limited to the US dollar either, as it fell against all major currencies by at least 1.6%. Using gold as the benchmark, the Canadian dollar was the strongest major currency against it, with XAU/CAD down 2% on Thursday. Gold was also just shy of 2% lower against the Australian dollar, Japanese yen and euro. Looking at this week’s performance, gold has lost the most ground against the New Zealand dollar. When gold’s performance is consistently weak across the board, it becomes hard to ignore, and that could put traders on guard for a bearish breakout.

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis It is hard to argue with gold's bearish trend overall, given its series of lower lows and lower highs. Yet despite the daily close below 4,000, bulls still appear to be putting up a fight. Thursday's bearish engulfing day only closed marginally below the key psychological level, while the June low at 3955.4 is also close by.

We may see a spike lower during the Asian or European session, although the nearby June low could increase the risk of a bearish shakeout and two-way volatility. The October low, just above 3900, also sits close to the weekly VPOC, providing technical support that could stifle any runaway bearish breakout for now.

While downside risks remain, bears may also want to stay nimble given the cluster of nearby support levels. Lower timeframes may therefore be better suited to managing the increased risk of volatility.

Source: ICE, TradingView

Gold Options Markets Remain Calm Despite the Breakdown A slight word of caution for bears also comes from the options market. Implied volatility is neither rising nor particularly high by this year's standards. Risk reversals also remain elevated, although they edged lower on Thursday to reflect increased demand for puts relative to calls. Yet despite gold trading below its June 11 low, risk reversals remain well above their corresponding lows. That suggests options traders are less concerned about further downside than spot prices currently imply. That view may change if gold eventually breaks below 3,900.

Source: LSEG

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

The USD/CHF reversed course, rising by over 0.40% late Thursday as the Greenback staged a recovery amid overall risk aversion, heightened tensions in the Middle East, and strong US economic data. The pair trades at 0.8088 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.8045.

USD/CHF price forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/CHF made a U-turn after testing the March 31 high-turned-support at 0.8042, exacerbating a move toward 0.8100.

Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bulls are gathering some steam after taking a breather on Wednesday, as the index briefly touched the 50-neutral level. Since then, the RSI’s aim has been toward the 60 level, an indication that the uptrend might continue.

If USD/CHF climbs above 0.8100, this opens the door to test the August 1, 2025 daily peak at 0.8171, and then the June 4, 2025 high at 0.8250. Conversely, a drop below 0.8100 opens the door to test the psychological 0.8000 level. Below this area lies the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7967, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7919.

USD/CHF Price Chart — Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.19%0.46%0.11%0.05%0.06%0.09%0.41%EUR-0.19%0.28%-0.07%-0.13%-0.04%-0.08%0.21%GBP-0.46%-0.28%-0.35%-0.39%-0.33%-0.35%-0.04%JPY-0.11%0.07%0.35%-0.08%0.03%-0.01%0.29%CAD-0.05%0.13%0.39%0.08%0.10%0.07%0.37%AUD-0.06%0.04%0.33%-0.03%-0.10%-0.01%0.27%NZD-0.09%0.08%0.35%0.01%-0.07%0.01%0.29%CHF-0.41%-0.21%0.04%-0.29%-0.37%-0.27%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels USD/CHF has spent four consecutive weeks pressing a major pivot zone at uptrend resistance. The repeated failure to break higher is increasing the importance of this technical barrier for the broader uptrend. A decisive close above resistance would confirm uptrend resumption and expose the next major upside objectives. A break below the monthly range low would be the first indication that bullish momentum is fading and a larger correction may be underway. The economic calendar is relatively light, leaving geopolitical developments as the most likely catalyst for the next directional move. Resistance 8103, 8200/15 (key), 8333– Support 8037, 8009 (key), 7827/39 USD/CHF is entering a decisive phase after spending nearly a month unable to clear a major technical barrier. Although the January uptrend remains constructive, repeated rejection from the same zone has increased the risk that momentum begins to fade unless buyers force a convincing breakout. With price still holding above rising trend support and geopolitical developments likely to drive sentiment, the next move could determine whether the broader advance resumes or gives way to a deeper correction. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF was, “testing uptrend resistance at a key pivot zone. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 8009 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with ac close above 8103 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/CHF closed at 8100 that week before pulling back with decline registering in intraweek low at 8010 the following week. The subsequent recovery takes USD/CHF back into pivotal resistance of a fourth consecutive week and the focus remains on possible inflection off this zone with the long-bias still vulnerable while below 8103.

Initial weekly support now rests with the monthly close low at 8037- note the median line converges on this level next week. Ultimately, a break below the March high-week close (HWC) at 8009 would be needed to threaten a deeper correction within the January uptrend towards the objective yearly open and the 52-week moving average near 7927/39 (bullish invalidation). Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A topside breach / weekly close above the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8103 is needed to mark uptrend resumption. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 100% extension of the January advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 8200/15. Note that the upper parallel converges on this zone over the next few weeks and represents an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Strength beyond this threshold is needed to fuel the next major phase of the rally towards the 2024 lows at 8333.

           

Bottom line: USD/CHF is trading into a pivotal resistance zone for the fourth consecutive week and although the technical outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance remains vulnerable while below. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a breakout of this range just above the median line- losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above the 75% parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.

The economic calendar is relatively light next week, leaving developments surrounding the conflict with Iran as the primary catalyst for shifts in market sentiment. Watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts Gold (XAU/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

Underneath that price, the structural picture has not changed. The market is on track for its sixth consecutive annual deficit, forecast at 46.3 million ounces for 2026 by Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, meaning the world is set to use more silver than it produces for the sixth year running. What moved in the last two weeks is the policy wrapped around that supply. Two things happened in Washington, neither of them about silver, and both touch the ground silver comes from.

Washington Puts North American Trade on a Yearly Clock On July 1 the three governments held the first mandatory joint review of the USMCA, the North American trade agreement, on its sixth anniversary. The review asked one question: would all three confirm an extension for a further sixteen years? The United States said no. In the words of US Trade Representative Greer, it “did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form.” Mexico and Canada both supported extending it.

It is worth being precise about what that did and did not do, because the headlines were louder than the event. Nothing expired. The agreement remains fully in force and its own terms run to July 1, 2036. What the refusal triggered is the fallback written into the treaty: instead of a settled sixteen-year extension, the three parties now hold a joint review every year until they either agree to extend or the agreement lapses in 2036. The extension remains available at any time if all three sign off. So exporters did not lose access; they lost certainty. And the bargaining is live, with Washington pressing for stricter rules of origin and a further round with Mexico set for the week of July 20.

Greer tied the refusal to the agreement’s shortcomings and to US trade deficits with the two countries. He attached no figures to it. The official data do: the US goods deficit with Mexico ran $196.9 billion in 2025 on a Census basis, behind only the European Union and China.

For silver, the address matters more than the arithmetic. Mexico is the world’s largest silver-producing country, at 172.9 million ounces in 2025 according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, ahead of Peru at 130.6 million and China at 112.8 million. Against global mine production of 846.6 million ounces, that is roughly one ounce in five. Putting that jurisdiction’s trade terms on a yearly cycle closes no mine and cancels no shipment. It does mean the largest single slice of the world’s silver now sits under a question reopened every twelve months instead of every sixth year.

A second clock runs alongside it. The 10% import surcharge imposed under Section 122 in February reaches its 150-day statutory ceiling on July 24 and expires automatically, since only Congress can extend it. Properly claimed USMCA-origin goods were exempt from that surcharge in any case, which is exactly why the agreement’s status is worth watching: an exemption is only as durable as the framework behind it.

The US declined to renew USMCA in its current form, keeping copper tariffs and a pending refined-copper duty in play while Mexico’s silver output — about a fifth of global mine supply — sits exposed to the fallout. Source: Sources: USTR — Greer Statement on USMCA Joint Review | White House — Proclamation 10962, Adjusting Imports of Copper Into the United States | BEA — US International Trade in Goods and Services, Annual 2025 | Trade Law Counsel — Section 122 Surcharge Sunsets July 24 | Congressional Research Service — Section 232 National Security Tariffs on Copper Imports | TradingKey — COMEX Copper Inventories Hit Record | Metals Focus and the Silver Institute — World Silver Survey 2026 What This Means to Silver Investors Start with what did not happen, because it is most of the story. No ounces were removed. The USMCA is in force, Mexican silver still crosses the border, and an annual review is a process change, not a tariff. The refined-copper duty has not been decided at all, and the copper measures that do exist specifically exempt the ores and concentrates that carry byproduct silver. This is a change in the terms silver travels under, and for now only a possible one.

What it does is add friction and a standing risk premium to the ounces the market most needs, on top of a balance that is already short. That is worth watching precisely because it is slow. There is no announcement day for it and no headline saying supply fell. It shows up as a wider gap between where silver is mined and where it is used.

The honest counterweight deserves full weight. The survey itself expects Mexican production to return to growth in 2026, after falling three years running, including a 5% drop in 2025. So the jurisdiction now under the annual clock is the one part of supply that may actually improve, and trade friction and mine output are different things. The first does not automatically damage the second.

Where it lands is alongside the rest of the policy squeeze. In Issue #19, I discussed the split between a rebuilding New York vault and a rising Shanghai premium, with Beijing narrowing its export valve at the same time. Put them together and the supply chain feeding a 46.3 million ounce deficit is being handled at both ends by governments, for reasons that have nothing to do with silver and cannot be undone by its price. None of this points to a level on the chart, and I would be wary of anyone who says it does. The longer-term case for silver rests on a structural deficit and a supply base that cannot easily grow, and policy keeps adding to the cost of reaching that base.

North American trade friction is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter. Get full Silver Catalyst Newsletter and Silver Rising book today.

Thank you.

The Silver Engineer

Gold price drops over 1.80% as tensions between the US and Iran fuel fears of a possible Oil supply disruption, driving energy prices higher and potentially triggering another round of inflation. The XAU/USD trades at $3,994.

XAU/USD drops as energy risks lift Dollar and yieldsThe effects of the Middle East conflict are well reflected by the strength of the US Dollar. The Greenback is up some 0.24%, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s value against its peers, is at 100.74, still shy of revisiting the 101.00 mark.

The US currency appreciates due to its positive correlation with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price, which despite trading modestly lower during the day is up over 13% in July. This heightens speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year.

US economic data was also positive during the day with Retail Sales expanding by 0.2% MoM in June, as expected, but below May’s 1% increase — driven mostly by higher gasoline prices. Control Group Retail Sales, used primarily in calculating the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), slowed from 0.8% to 0.5% as expected.

US jobs data was also solid, as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 11 came at 208K, beneath forecasts of a 217K increase. The Fed’s Beige Book acknowledged that the labour market is strong, with some districts showing “modest, moderate or solid gains.”

US Treasury yields are drifting higher, with the US 10-year T-note rising by nearly 3 basis points (bps) to 4.577%.

Comments by Fed Regional Bank Presidents Lorie Logan and Jeffrey Schmid revealed that both lean hawkish on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Logan from the Dallas Fed calls for a modestly higher policy rate to better balance the outlook and risks. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed's Schmid said that the labour market seems to be roughly stable, but that he remains concerned as “inflation is proving persistent across a broad selection of goods and services.”

Money markets expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at the July meeting, with odds of a hold at 73%. However, the chances for an October rate hike remain high, at 57%, according to Prime Terminal data.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s downtrend extends, eyes on $3,900Gold’s trend remains bearish, reaching a new 13-day low of $3,974, which if decisively cleared opens the door for a move toward the year-to-date low of $3,941. On further weakness, bears could drive XAU to test the $3,900 milestone before challenging the October 28, 2025 swing low at $3,886.

On the other hand, for a bullish reversal Bullion must clear a downslope resistance trendline between $4,125 and $4,175. Once cleared, a move to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,305 is on the cards. Overhead lies the 200-day SMA at $4,495, which once hurdled clears the path to $4,500.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The latest trading sessions have not been fully decisive for short-term euro movements. For now, EUR/USD continues to show a lack of clear direction, after gaining close to 0.4% during the previous session but posting an average decline of -0.23% in the current session.

This behavior highlights a lack of consistent strength in the euro. So far, the European currency remains pressured by the relative strength of the U.S. dollar and by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve. If this effect continues, a phase of indecision could remain relevant in EUR/USD movements over the next few trading sessions.

Is the dollar still applying pressure? After the release of some inflation figures in the United States, such as CPI and PPI, the market began to price in the possibility of a less aggressive Federal Reserve. This initially affected U.S. dollar strength and allowed the euro to recover some ground at the beginning of the week.

However, this dynamic has not fully held. During the current session, a new shift has been observed in the probability table for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions. Now, the market assigns a probability above 48% to a possible interest rate increase at the September 16 decision, which would take the rate toward a new area near 4.00%.

At the same time, there is a slightly lower probability of 45.7% that rates will remain unchanged in September. This dynamic is relevant because it positions the Federal Reserve as one of the few central banks still maintaining an aggressive monetary policy outlook.

Source: CMEGROUP

This scenario remains important for U.S. dollar strength in the short term. The currency has not managed to consolidate clear weakness, partly because the market remains cautious about what the Federal Reserve may decide.

This is reflected in the behavior of the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers. Despite the weakness observed at the beginning of the week, the index continues to trade above the 100-point level.

This suggests that demand for U.S. dollars remains relevant and could be limiting the euro’s ability to recover ground consistently in the short term.

Source: TradingEconomics

Expectations around U.S. monetary policy have also affected the bond market. For now, 10-year U.S. bonds remain more attractive than European bonds, with yields holding above the 4.5% area despite the weakness seen at the beginning of the week.

Although 10-year European bonds have managed to recover, they are still trading near 3.5%, below U.S. securities. This difference continues to favor dollar-denominated investments, as the market still does not fully price in a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve.

If the yield differential remains in place, the relative appeal of dollar-denominated assets could continue to be more consistent compared to euro-denominated investments.

Source: TradingEconomics

Therefore, the euro’s outlook remains complex. For now, there has been no relevant shift in Federal Reserve expectations that would suggest stronger weakness in U.S. bonds or the dollar.

This scenario could limit the euro’s recovery against the dollar in the short term and maintain a relevant phase of indecision in EUR/USD over the next few trading sessions.

Technical forecast for EUR/USD

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Bearish trend still dominates: Despite EUR/USD’s recovery attempts in recent sessions, price has still not managed to clearly change the technical outlook on the daily chart. The multi-month bearish pressure remains relevant and, for now, bullish movements have not been enough to confirm a change in direction. If price fails to break above more important technical zones, the selling bias could continue to influence the pair’s movements over the next few sessions.
  RSI: Now, the RSI line remains near the neutral 50 level. This suggests that the average of buying and selling impulses over the last 14 sessions remains balanced. This reading reflects a phase of indecision that could remain relevant in the chart’s movements, where no clear market direction is currently visible.
  TRIX: In the TRIX, the indicator line remains below the 0 zone, indicating that the average strength of long-term exponential moving averages continues to show a selling bias in the broader chart outlook. However, the recent flattening of the curve suggests a slowdown in short-term selling momentum, which is also highlighting a potential phase of relevant indecision.
  Key levels:

1.15127 – Relevant resistance: This important high level coincides with a retracement area from previous weeks and with the barrier formed by the 50-period moving average. Price movements attempting to break above this level could start to put the long bearish trend line at risk and open room for a more dominant buying bias over the coming trading weeks.
  1.14253 – Near-term barrier: This level corresponds to the most relevant average retracement area at the moment and works as the most important short-term neutrality reference. Price movements too close to this level could continue to reinforce a phase of indecision and maintain relevant neutrality over the next few sessions.
  1.12851 – Definitive support: This level is associated with a neutral area observed in May 2025 and now acts as the main support to watch. If price continues to move closer to this area, the selling bias would be reinforced and the possibility of an extension of the bearish trend line as the dominant chart structure over the coming weeks would increase.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

JPY, USD/JPY Talking Points: I looked into this on Monday and it was my first article in more than two months, looking at what I thought to be one of the more important and impactful macro themes across markets. While many retail traders think intervention is a simple task and the exchange rate of one of the world’s largest markets is easily manipulated, the reality is that USD/JPY is a free market and any meddling from policymakers comes with possibility of consequences. USD/JPY is on the verge of testing a breakout and I think this is an important time to revisit the manner, as I’ve seen multiple retail traders pointing to 163 as a point of possible resistance with the hope that the Japanese government might take effort to defend the level. This seems very similar to the episode we had back in 2022 at 150, or 2024 with 151.95 and then 160. We saw this pop up again earlier this year, as USD/JPY was testing for another break of the 160 level, which eventually took place in both March and April followed by a prolonged breakout in June that remains in-place today.

At this point the USD/JPY pair holds a bull pennant formation and buyers have exhibited strong control of the trend. As written on Monday, the CPI-fueled pullback was but an opportunity for buyers to load up at lower prices, and this is at least partly why the pair is on verge of breakout now despite below-expected prints from both CPI and PPI.

This is the trend talking, as prices have continued to rally even in light of what would normally be expected as bearish drivers.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

The Reality of Intervention It’s often the loudest traders that are the least experienced. Being through more and more of these scenarios highlights just how much we don’t or can’t know about what’s going to happen. So in a way it’s almost as if humility must be earned to be learned and that then pushes the traders focus to survival when encountering the unknown, rather than pure unbridled greed.

While threats of intervention, or even interventions themselves can produce counter-trend moves, the reality is that fundamental forces remain important and impactful. But it’s not as simple as looking at central bank rates to say that US rates are higher and Japanese rates are lower so the price should move in a linear manner. No, there’s more nuance than that, and this is where the role of expectations come into play. And when we have a backdrop where the US may be going into a phase where rate cuts could come into play, or maybe even a phase were slower rate hikes might be in the picture, that could precipitate a sell-off.

This explains what showed in Q4 of 2022 and while an intervention at 151.95 is often credited with stopping the rally in the pair, that move really just stalled the breakout. It was a below-expected CPI print in November of that year that finally allowed for the breakdown. And despite the still-favorable rate advantage to the US, the USD/JPY trade had become crowded and the prospect of change allowed for a strong reversal that lasted over the next couple of months.

But by mid-January the longs that wanted to close had already done so, and the fundamental disparity again came back into the picture.

Since then, the US has been through two phases of rate cuts and now with inflation remaining high and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sounding more hawkish than what many expected a Trump appointee to sound, USD-strength has been back in the picture over the past couple of months, and that’s helped to drive a fresh forty year high in the USD/JPY pair.

As looked at on Monday, this puts emphasis on the next logical round price higher, which is the 165 level that was last in-play back in 1986. So far – there’s been a degree of stalling inside of that level, with 163.00 currently showing as near-term resistance.

USD/JPY Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Friday Fireworks Going into the weekend presents a couple of risks as Japan closes for the week well ahead of the US, and this raises the possibility of a resistance test and perhaps even a breakout while much of the country is on their way into the weekend. For something like this, where there’s like a litany of stops sitting around or just above 163.00, that can fast turn into a short-squeeze type of scenario that propels price up towards a 165.00 type of area.

That outcome is, unfortunately, difficult to trade at this point given how close price already is to resistance.

But perhaps more enticing is if we do see some form of threat of intervention or tighter policy, a pullback can similarly be seen as opportunistic, much like I referred to on Monday when looking ahead to US CPI and PPI data.

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

The Pound Sterling trims some of its Wednesday gains versus the US Dollar, down by over 0.48% following solid US data. The sell-off comes amid risk aversion and augments the safe-haven appeal of the Greenback. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3375, after peaking near 1.3545. Read More...

British Pound remains muted as UK monthly GDP rises 0.1%, as expectedThe British Pound (GBP) remains almost muted against its major currency peers after the release of the monthly United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for May. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that the economy expanded 0.1%, as expected, after contracting at a similar pace in April. Read More...

British Pound weakens below 1.3550 on renewed US strikes on IranThe GBP/USD pair declines to near 1.3530 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as renewed conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have reignited energy-driven inflation risks. Traders brace for the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and the US Retail Sales data, which are due later on Thursday. Read More...

What I think we’re looking at now is a clash between short-term trend traders and long-term investors.

The short-term trader is looking at the series of lower-tops and lower-bottoms and thinking downtrend. The long-term investor is looking at a market sitting inside 50% to 61.8% of its all-time high. The problem is, the long-term investor can keep lowering his passive bid and dragging the whole market down with him.

I can see that the daily swing chart indicates a possible change in trend to up on a trade through $63.28. A move through this level will break the pattern of lower tops. But until the long-term buyers settle on value and the short-term buyers start aggressively taking out offers, I think we’re going to see this same back and fill trading that we’ve seen over the past month.

Traders see 50% to 61.8% retracement zone form all the time on the daily chart and they seem to be more aggressive when they see them. We’re now testing 50% to 61.8% of the all-time high and I don’t sense that aggressiveness even with some silver experts still predicting $300 prices.

What to Watch Oil is setting silver’s direction right now and that is not going to change until crude pulls back or the Middle East escalation produces a genuine de-escalation headline. The June inflation data and the weak payrolls report gave the market every reason to rally this week and silver gave it all back Thursday because the forward inflation picture changed faster than the backward-looking data could support a sustained move. The Fed is caught between soft employment and rising energy costs, and until that resolves, rallies in silver are likely to attract sellers.

Sellers broke the June 24 bottom at $55.60 Thursday and reaffirmed the downtrend, but the market is sitting inside the long-term value zone off the all-time high and bounced from $55.39. The clash between short-term trend traders pressing lower and long-term investors looking for value at these levels is the technical story, and the passive bidding that has defined this market for the past month has only produced lower lows. A trade through $63.28 would break the pattern of lower tops, but getting there requires a catalyst the data alone has not been able to deliver while oil keeps repricing the inflation outlook.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Australian dollar rallies toward major resistance as RBA rate hike odds swing sharply and the US Dollar Index continues to weaken. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, breaks down the key levels driving the move and what traders are watching next.

Why Is EUR/USD Rising Despite Weak Eurozone Growth? At first glance, the euro’s recent rebound appears counterintuitive. The eurozone economy continues to struggle, with economists cutting growth forecasts for a fourth consecutive quarter. Reuters’ latest survey now projects the economy to expand by just 0.5% in 2026, while quarterly growth is expected to remain stuck around 0.2%.

Recent data have done little to improve sentiment. Eurozone industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.2% month-on-month in May, reversing April’s revised 0.3% increase, while business surveys continue to point to slowing manufacturing activity as companies grapple with weak demand and rising production costs.

Ordinarily, this combination of slowing growth and weaker industrial activity would weigh heavily on the euro. Instead, the single currency has found support from the growing divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve.

The ECB is widely expected to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% next week. However, markets continue to anticipate another increase later this year, with September viewed as the most likely window. According to a recent Reuters poll, around 70% of economists now expect one additional ECB rate hike this year, compared with roughly 60% only a month ago.

The reason is not stronger domestic demand—it is the renewed threat of imported inflation through higher energy prices.

Meanwhile, the U.S. inflation picture continues to move in the opposite direction. June consumer prices posted their largest monthly decline since April 2020, with headline CPI falling 0.4% month-on-month, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%. Core CPI was unchanged over the month, slowing to 2.6% year-on-year, while producer prices unexpectedly declined 0.3%, reinforcing expectations that underlying inflation pressures continue to ease.

Daily EUR/USD Chart – Source: TradingView The daily chart suggests the EUR/USD is stabilizing following two consecutive bullish sessions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reclaimed the neutral 50 threshold, signaling a gradual recovery in upward momentum. However, the broader technical outlook remains neutral. Because the pair continues to trade below the Ichimoku cloud, buyers have yet to regain decisive control of the medium-term trend.

Levels to Watch

Resistance Zone: 1.1504 & 1.1566. A clean break above these levels—and a push through the Ichimoku cloud—would validate a stronger bullish reversal. Support Zone: 1.1405 & 1.1349. A break below these levels would add downward pressure to the EUR/USD. Looking ahead, next week’s ECB meeting will undoubtedly attract most of the attention. However, traders should avoid focusing solely on interest-rate guidance. If European gas prices continue to climb, markets may increasingly price in a more hawkish ECB while simultaneously becoming more concerned about the eurozone’s deteriorating growth outlook.

Conversely, any easing in geopolitical tensions that brings gas prices lower could improve the region’s growth prospects while allowing the euro to benefit from the widening policy gap with the Federal Reserve.

The key risk for euro bulls is that a prolonged energy shock eventually shifts the market’s focus away from higher interest rates and back toward recession risks. In periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. dollar has historically benefited from safe-haven demand, while the United States remains considerably less vulnerable than Europe to imported energy shocks thanks to its domestic oil and gas production.

Sources: Reuters, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Eurostat, Fed, ECB

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EUR/USD trades with a downside bias on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) steadies following recent losses driven by softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1457, down modestly on the day.

Market sentiment remains fragile as renewed tensions in the Middle East push Oil prices higher, raising concerns that June's inflation slowdown may prove short-lived. This is limiting the downside in the US Dollar as traders continue to expect a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.60 after falling to 100.35 on Wednesday, its lowest level since June 18.

The Greenback found additional support after the latest US labour market data showed that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 208K in the week ending July 11. The reading was below the 217K forecast.

US Retail Sales rose 0.2% MoM in June, in-line with expectations. May's reading was slightly revised upward to 1.0% from 0.9%. The Retail Sales Control Group also came in as expected at 0.5%, down from May's 0.8% increase.

On the geopolitical front, the US carried out a fifth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, while Tehran responded by targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

Reuters reported, citing sources, that Iran had instructed Yemen’s Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea if the US attacks its power network. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading near $80 and gaining around 12% so far this week.

Higher energy prices have also revived expectations of another European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike. A Reuters poll released on Thursday showed that all 74 economists expect the ECB to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% at its July meeting, while a 70% majority expect one more increase this year, most likely in September.

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.10%0.21%0.05%-0.18%-0.04%-0.04%0.30%EUR-0.10%0.11%-0.04%-0.27%-0.06%-0.13%0.20%GBP-0.21%-0.11%-0.13%-0.37%-0.18%-0.24%0.11%JPY-0.05%0.04%0.13%-0.25%-0.02%-0.10%0.25%CAD0.18%0.27%0.37%0.25%0.22%0.15%0.49%AUD0.04%0.06%0.18%0.02%-0.22%-0.05%0.28%NZD0.04%0.13%0.24%0.10%-0.15%0.05%0.33%CHF-0.30%-0.20%-0.11%-0.25%-0.49%-0.28%-0.33% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The silver daily chart shows price at the bottom of its range, with a potential death cross forming overhead. Source: TradingView. The silver market continues to see a lot of negativity as we are trying to break to a fresh new low as the interest rates in America continue to climb. Higher interest rates end up being pretty negative for silver a lot of times, and we are seeing that play out in the charts at this juncture. I do not think this is a market that is going to suddenly be easier to deal with, and the volatility will continue to be a major issue. Ultimately, this is a potential situation where, if the breakdown occurs, it will be a simple continuation of the overall negativity that we have seen for the last couple of months. This could be a sign that something bigger is afoot at the moment.

Consolidation Ranges and EMA Intersections A rally at this point in time could see the $60 level as a bit of a magnet for price. It’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it’s also worth noting that we have sliced through it multiple times, and therefore, we are at the bottom of what could look like a short-term consolidation range. This could be changing soon, though, if the recent move is starting to pick away at a support level.

GBP/JPY trades with a mild negative bias on Thursday, taking a breather after climbing to its highest level since December 2007 the previous day, as the British Pound benefited from easing political uncertainty and expectations of greater fiscal discipline.

At the time of writing, the cross trades around 219.00, down 0.25% on the day.

The Pound strengthened across the board on Wednesday following reports that current Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor. Mahmood is seen as a more market-friendly choice than the other candidates.

Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East are pushing Oil prices higher again, raising inflation risks and reviving expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE), providing additional support to Sterling.

However, BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said on Thursday that the Iran war shock is less likely to become embedded and lead to “inflationary dynamics that we might need to lean against.” She added that the BoE is "in a good place" to monitor what’s happening.

Even if the BoE holds rates steady, the interest-rate differential with Japan is still wide, posing a persistent headwind for the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Against this backdrop, GBP/JPY retains an upside bias. However, broad-based Yen weakness, with USD/JPY hovering near 40-year highs, keeps traders alert to possible intervention by Japanese authorities.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated on Thursday that authorities are ready to take appropriate action in the currency market at any time if needed. She added that interest and exchange rates are driven by multiple factors but declined to comment on specific currency levels.

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.26%0.03%-0.14%-0.02%-0.01%0.24%EUR-0.06%0.20%-0.02%-0.19%-0.01%-0.06%0.17%GBP-0.26%-0.20%-0.20%-0.38%-0.22%-0.25%-0.00%JPY-0.03%0.02%0.20%-0.19%0.02%-0.05%0.21%CAD0.14%0.19%0.38%0.19%0.20%0.14%0.38%AUD0.02%0.00%0.22%-0.02%-0.20%-0.03%0.19%NZD0.01%0.06%0.25%0.05%-0.14%0.03%0.23%CHF-0.24%-0.17%0.00%-0.21%-0.38%-0.19%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Silver (XAG/USD) falls toward $56.70 at the time of writing on Thursday, down 1.85% on the day. The white metal comes under selling pressure as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran drive energy prices higher, reviving concerns about persistently elevated global inflation.

Higher Oil prices are fueling expectations that inflation could remain above central bank targets for longer. This scenario prompts investors to anticipate tighter monetary conditions for an extended period, an environment that is generally unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Geopolitical concerns intensified after US President Donald Trump threatened to expand attacks on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran refuses to return to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, the suspension of crude loading operations at several Iraqi terminals following a drone-related incident has heightened fears of global Oil supply disruptions, providing additional support to energy prices.

At the same time, recent US inflation data is helping to limit Silver's downside. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June showed a further moderation in price pressures, prompting markets to scale back expectations of additional monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a Fed interest rate hike at the July meeting has fallen to around 10%, down from above 30% a week ago. The decline in hawkish expectations is limiting downside pressure on precious metals, even as energy-driven inflation concerns continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Summary:

The EUR/TRY pair is testing a major 54.00 resistance level, a psychological barrier that previously triggered a significant technical rejection of the euro Persistent double-digit inflation and high energy import costs continue to structurally weaken the Turkish lira against the euro’s ongoing upward momentum Traders are awaiting the July 23 central bank policy meeting, where any unexpected hawkish signals could spark a sharp rally in the lira The euro has regained some ground against the Turkish lira after a period of decline in late June. The pair is currently trading near the 54.00 level, which has previously acted as a resistance point. This technical level raises questions about the potential for further advances and the continuation of the broader upward trend.

Why the Lira Keeps Losing Ground Several factors are contributing to the lira’s continued depreciation. Turkey is experiencing persistent high inflation, with the annual rate at 32.11% in June, a slight decrease from 32.61% in May. This figure remains significantly above the central bank’s medium-term objectives.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has maintained its policy rate at 37% for three consecutive meetings. This pause followed an aggressive easing cycle, which was complicated by rising energy prices due to Middle East conflict, impacting the path to lower inflation.

Turkey relies heavily on imported energy, so when Brent crude oil prices jump, it puts a strain on the country’s trade balance. This forces local businesses to keep selling lira to buy foreign currency to pay for fuel.

Governor Fatih Karahan has clearly stated that the bank needs to see more solid proof of inflation slowing down and better clarity on the geopolitical situation before they start cutting rates again. The next policy meeting is on July 23. Until then, the central bank’s message is basically wait and see.

Can the EUR/TRY Pair Break 54.00? Regarding the potential for the EUR/TRY pair to break above 54.00, the underlying macroeconomic conditions have not substantially changed, suggesting a continued test of recent highs. Analysts describe the lira’s depreciation as a managed, gradual movement rather than a sharp devaluation.

The CBRT has intervened periodically to moderate volatility without reversing the overall trend. This approach typically results in incremental movements toward resistance levels, which is consistent with the pair’s two previous attempts at the 54.00 mark.

For a decisive break, we’d probably need one of a fresh worsening of Turkish inflation expectations, a hawkish surprise from the ECB, or renewed geopolitical escalation pushing energy prices even higher. Without one of those catalysts, the pair might just keep consolidating right below that barrier.

If the EUR/TRY fails to break past this barrier over the next few sessions, a technical double-top pattern could emerge. This would likely trigger quick profit-taking by short-term momentum traders, potentially sending the pair sliding back down to test support at 53.50 and 53.12.

The Euro is also fighting its own battle. Softening economic growth indicators in the Eurozone or a shift by the ECB towards a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle could diminish the euro’s inherent buying support, thereby capping upside potential for the EUR/TRY.

Why is EUR/TRY struggling near 54.00?

This level marked a prior rejection point, and with no fresh catalyst yet, the pair is consolidating there rather than breaking through decisively.

Where does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s primary benchmark one-week repo rate currently sit?

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has held its key one-week repo interest rate at 37%.

Why does a rise in global oil prices structurally weaken the Turkish lira against major foreign currencies?

 Turkey imports nearly all its energy. Therefore, surging oil costs widen its trade deficit by forcing domestic firms to sell lira for foreign currencies.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Thursday as traders look past back-to-back softer-than-expected US inflation reports and remain focused on renewed Middle East tensions, which are fueling concerns that higher energy prices could reignite inflationary pressure.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,028, down 0.80% on the day.

Both the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June came in below market expectations. The softer readings reduced the chances of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike, but Gold struggled to gain traction as traders continued to debate whether the Fed could still tighten policy later this year.

Fed officials continue to stress the need to bring inflation sustainably back to the 2% target while noting that the labor market appears to have stabilized. This suggests that the central bank could raise interest rates later this year if inflation proves more persistent.

Elevated borrowing costs reduce Gold's appeal as investors seek higher returns from interest-bearing assets.

Against this backdrop, Gold retains a downside bias, though it has traded broadly between $4,000 and $4,200 in recent weeks after falling to $3,941 in June, its lowest level since November 2025.

Next on the US economic docket are Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims data, due at 12:30 GMT. Speeches from Fed officials Lorie Logan and Jeffrey Schmid later in the day will also be watched.

On the geopolitical front, the US carried out a fifth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, while Tehran responded by targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

Iran also said it would not allow Washington to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a "red line." Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump was leaning towards expanding military operations.

Technical analysis: Sellers retain control as XAU/USD struggles below $4,200

On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish bias as it remains well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,495 and the 100-day SMA at $4,548.

Price is holding within a downward parallel channel, trading beneath its upper boundary around $4,200, while momentum is mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40 leans slightly bearish, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, yet with declining histogram bars, hinting that any rebound would still face structural headwinds overhead.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around $4,200, where the horizontal cap and the channel’s upper line converge, before the more significant barriers at the 200-day SMA near $4,496 and the 100-day SMA close to $4,548.

On the downside, initial support appears at the $4,000 horizontal level, with a deeper cushion at the channel floor around $3,800.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is down 0.7% to near $4,030 during the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal faces selling pressures as global inflation concerns remain intact amid elevated energy prices in the wake of widening military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran.

During the day, a drone crash into an oil tanker in Iraq's Basra terminal has resulted in the suspension of all crude loading on all Iraqi terminals. This has renewed fears of lower oil supply, a scenario that will keep energy prices elevated.

The scenario of higher energy prices de-anchors global inflation expectations, which prompts fears of tight monetary conditions by central banks. Theoretically, higher interest rate hike expectations bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

The war between the US and Iran could intensify further, as US President Donald Trump has warned of authorizing forces to attack Iranian infrastructure, most probably next week, if the nation doesn’t return to the table for negotiations, according to his comments in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, easing hawkish Fed prospects are likely to limit the downside in the Gold price. Traders have dialed down the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations as US consumer and producer inflation has cooled down in June.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike in the July meeting have eased to 10.2% from 24.6% recorded a week ago.

Gold technical analysis

XAU/USD trades lower at around $4,030, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,113.96.

The downside bias is reinforced by a mid-range Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40, which suggests weak but persistent selling pressure rather than oversold exhaustion.

On the topside, initial resistance is clearly defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,113.96, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure. Looking down, the Gold price could slide towards the October 28 low of $3,886.62 if it falls below the June 30 low of $3,941.76.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

(This story was corrected at 11:15 GMT to say in the fifth paragraph that Traders have dialed down the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations as US consumer and producer inflation has cooled down in June, and not July.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.00 per troy ounce, down 1.34% from the $57.77 it cost on Wednesday.

Silver prices have decreased by 19.82% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 70.78 on Thursday, up from 70.29 on Wednesday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.