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2026-07-08 03:12 3mo ago
2026-07-07 23:00 3mo ago
NZD/USD po zvýšení sazeb RBNZ rychle ztratil dech
NZDUSD NZD/USD
FMP Forex News 88
Original source text
The New Zealand dollar received the boost that normally accompanies a rate hike, but the rally quickly lost momentum. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point increase in the Official Cash Rate to 2.50%, yet investors stopped short of pricing a more aggressive tightening cycle. Instead, the market came away with the impression that while another hike is still likely, policymakers have set a considerably higher hurdle before taking the next step.

At first glance, the statement appeared hawkish. The Committee said “some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required” and that “further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings.” But those remarks were balanced by equally strong caveats. The RBNZ repeatedly emphasized that medium-term inflation remains uncertain and that future decisions will depend on incoming data, firms’ price-setting behaviour and the strength of the recovery, adding that the timing of future hikes is “highly uncertain.”

That balance was reflected in the Record of Meeting. While all six members agreed to raise the OCR, they were not fully aligned on the inflation outlook. Prasanna Gai and Hayley Gourley believed risks remained tilted to the upside. However, Governor Anna Breman, Chief Economist Paul Conway, Assistant Governor (Money) Karen Silk and external member Carl Hansen judged the risks to be broadly balanced instead.

Those differences matter because the balanced camp included the Governor and two of the Bank’s most senior policy officials. Breman argued that weak demand could continue limiting businesses’ ability to pass higher costs on to consumers. Conway questioned how quickly the recovery would spread beyond stronger parts of the economy even while acknowledging firms might eventually rebuild margins. Silk pointed to two-way risks, noting that a weaker exchange rate could add to imported inflation, but slower immigration could simultaneously restrain growth, housing and inflationary pressure. Together, their comments suggest the Committee is looking for clearer evidence that inflation is becoming genuinely persistent before tightening again.

That explains the Kiwi’s muted reaction. The RBNZ reinforced its inflation-fighting credentials with another rate hike, but it deliberately avoided creating expectations of an automatic follow-up move. Investors appear to have concluded that policymakers are comfortable pausing at 2.50% until the data justify another increase, rather than feeling compelled to keep tightening simply because the cycle has begun.

The charts tell a similar story. NZD/USD recovered after the decision but remained comfortably below last week’s high at 0.5726, suggesting buyers have yet to seize full control. The rebound from 0.5625 may still extend in the near term, but it continues to resemble a corrective recovery within a broader downtrend.

Even if another leg higher develops, upside should be capped by the 0.5768 resistance cluster, including the 38.2% retracement of 0.5993 to 0.5625 at 0.5766. Once the corrective rebound is complete, a break below 0.5625 remains the preferred scenario. A subsequent move through 0.5580 would shift focus back to the 2025 low at 0.5484.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
2026-07-07 10:12 3mo ago
2026-07-07 06:00 3mo ago
Citi čeká krátkodobé posílení rupie po krocích RBI
USDINR USD/INR
FMP Forex News 86
Original source text
The Indian Rupee has remained under pressure this year, with the USD/INR exchange rate trading close to 95.30 despite recent signs of stabilisation.

Citi believes decisive action by the Reserve Bank of India should provide near-term support for the Rupee, although it expects the currency to weaken again over the medium term.

The bank has sharply revised its balance of payments outlook, forecasting a surplus instead of a deficit after the RBI introduced measures to attract foreign capital, including concessional swap facilities and incentives for overseas investment.

According to Citi, these policies demonstrate the central bank's willingness to preserve financial stability and reduce depreciation pressure on the Rupee.

The bank expects these inflows to help push USD/INR towards **93.0** in the near term as concerns over India's external position ease.

However, Citi believes this improvement will prove temporary. It forecasts **USD/INR rising back towards 95.0 over the following six to 12 months**, as the boost from capital inflows fades.

Citi expects the RBI's policy measures to provide short-term relief for the Rupee, while cautioning that medium-term performance will depend on the durability of foreign inflows and the broader US Dollar outlook.
2026-07-07 07:52 3mo ago
2026-07-07 03:34 3mo ago
UOB čeká růst GBP/USD k 1,3410 a 1,3445
GBPUSD GBP/USD
FMP Forex News 78
Original source text
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights a sharp GBP/USD advance to 1.3397 and a firm close at 1.3391. Intraday, Leang sees scope for further gains toward 1.3410, though 1.3445 may stay out of reach. On a 1–3 week horizon, a break above 1.3410 could open 1.3445, while only a fall below 1.3300 would negate the positive Pound bias.

Pound rally faces layered resistance"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP rose to 1.3380 last Friday and then pulled back. When it was at 1.3345 yesterday, we highlighted the following: “While there is scope for GBP to pull back further, any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.3320/1.3375 range. In other words, GBP is unlikely to break clearly below 1.3320.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. GBP dipped to 1.3329 before staging a sharp advance to 1.3397. GBP closed on a firm note at 1.3391 (+0.29%). Strong momentum suggests further GBP strength toward 1.3410. A break above this major resistance is not ruled out, but based on the prevailing momentum, the next resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach. To sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above 1.3350, with minor support at 1.3370"

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Tuesday (30 Jun, spot at 1.3255), indicating that “while GBP could rebound further, it is currently unclear whether any advance can reach 1.3355.” After GBP broke above 1.3355, we highlighted on Friday (03 Jul, spot at 1.3345) that “the advance is overbought, but it could rise further and test 1.3410.” Yesterday, GBP rose to a high of 1.3397. A break above 1.3410 will not be surprising, and it could lead to a move to 1.3445. Overall, only a breach of 1.3300 (‘strong support’ previously at 1.3280) would indicate that GBP is not rising further."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
2026-07-07 07:27 3mo ago
2026-07-07 00:05 3mo ago
GBP/CHF roste díky ústupu britského politického rizika
GBPCHF GBP/CHF
FMP Forex News 86
Original source text
Sterling’s rally has been about more than better sentiment toward the UK. It has been driven by the disappearance of one of the market’s biggest bearish trades. As political uncertainty faded following the resolution of Labour’s leadership transition, investors who had built sizeable short Sterling positions found themselves on the wrong side of the market. That process is still unfolding, helping explain why Sterling has outperformed most clearly in the crosses rather than against the Dollar alone.

Before UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, political uncertainty encouraged investors to build substantial bearish positions against Sterling. The decisive outcome of the Makerfield by-election on June 18 removed much of that uncertainty far more quickly than markets had anticipated. For traders who had sold Sterling on expectations of a prolonged political transition, the rationale for the trade weakened almost overnight.

What followed was not necessarily a wave of fresh optimism toward the UK economy but a mechanical process of buying Sterling back. Société Générale estimates speculative accounts were still holding short positions equivalent to 35.5% of open interest as of late June. Although some of those positions have already been unwound, the bank argues the remaining short base is still large enough to support further gains as investors continue to close bearish trades.

At the same time, the fundamental backdrop has quietly become more supportive. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has pushed back against expectations for early policy easing, suggesting interest rates may need to stay restrictive to ensure the inflationary effects of this year’s oil shock fully dissipate. With Bank Rate still at 3.75%, Sterling retains a sizeable yield advantage over the Swiss Franc (0.00%), Euro (2.25%) and Japanese Yen (1.00%), providing an additional incentive for investors to hold the currency.

Those macro and positioning forces are now converging at a technically significant moment. GBP/CHF has resumed its advance from the March low at 1.0281 and is approaching the important resistance zone around 1.08. Provided support at 1.0674 holds, the path of least resistance continues to point higher.

The importance of this zone extends well beyond a simple breakout. A decisive move above 1.0797 would break the medium-term downtrend that has been in place since the 2024 peak at 1.1675. A subsequent break above 100% projection of 1.0821 to 1.0674 from 1.0468 at 1.0861 would reinforce the view that the recovery has transitioned from a corrective rebound into a new impulsive advance, increasing the likelihood of an acceleration toward 161.8% projection at 1.1104.

The longer-term technical backdrop is also improving. GBP/CHF has reclaimed its 55 W EMA (now at 1.0689) and successfully defended the major low at 1.0183 established in 2022. Combined with the ongoing unwinding of Sterling shorts and the Bank of England’s relatively restrictive policy stance, the technical picture suggests Sterling’s recent strength could mark the beginning of a broader medium-term reversal rather than simply another short-lived rebound.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
2026-07-07 07:27 3mo ago
2026-07-07 00:39 3mo ago
AUD/USD klesá z maxima, drží se pod Fibonacciho retracementem
AUDUSD AUD/USD
FMP Forex News 78
Original source text
The AUD/USD retreats slightly from the 0.6960 area, or a two-week high, touched during the Asian session on Tuesday, and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak. The intraday downtick, however, lacks bearish conviction, warranting caution before confirming that a one-week-old recovery move from a three-month low has run out of steam.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to make it through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Furthermore, mixed momentum oscillators make it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the said barrier before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near 0.6870.

In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, hinting at a slight improvement in the upside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 suggests only modest directional pressure, consistent with a consolidative bias around current levels, warranting some caution for aggressive bullish traders as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz support the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6853, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the 61.8% Fibo. near 0.6752, with 0.6608 and 0.6425 marking subsequent retracement and cycle-low supports if selling extends. On the topside, a break above the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6954 would open the way toward the 23.6% retracement barrier at 0.7079, while the cycle high around 0.7282 stands as a more distant objective should bullish momentum gain traction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Australian Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.13%-0.99%-0.10%0.04%-0.83%-0.85%-0.25%EUR0.13%-0.88%0.04%0.15%-0.71%-0.66%-0.12%GBP0.99%0.88%0.93%1.01%0.15%0.21%0.75%JPY0.10%-0.04%-0.93%0.17%-0.69%-0.64%-0.18%CAD-0.04%-0.15%-1.01%-0.17%-0.87%-0.80%-0.28%AUD0.83%0.71%-0.15%0.69%0.87%-0.01%0.59%NZD0.85%0.66%-0.21%0.64%0.80%0.01%0.51%CHF0.25%0.12%-0.75%0.18%0.28%-0.59%-0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
2026-07-07 07:27 3mo ago
2026-07-07 01:10 3mo ago
GBP/USD roste devátý den kvůli slabým datům z USA
OIL Ropa (Brent) GBPUSD GBP/USD
FMP Forex News 78
Original source text
British Pound gains as easing Fed hike bets weigh on US DollarGBP/USD continues its winning streak for the ninth consecutive day, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) faces headwinds as market participants scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated.

Furthermore, a recent drop in crude oil prices, driven by an OPEC+ production boost and a US-Iran peace deal, has alleviated broader inflationary pressures, softening the urgency for an aggressive Fed policy outlook. Read more...

Pound Sterling rallies into its own coronationGBP/USD has quietly put together eight consecutive higher daily closes, a grind from near 1.3150 that has delivered the pair directly onto its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 50-day EMA just beneath it and the 1.3400 handle immediately overhead. Monday added another modest gain: Cable based near 1.3350 through the London morning, then climbed all afternoon to stall just shy of 1.3400.

The interesting part is what did not stop it. A hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) governor was on the wires mid-afternoon, US services data came in warm enough to keep the hike debate alive, and the pair rallied through all of it, which suggests Monday was less about fresh good news for the Pound and more about a Dollar that has run out of new arguments. Read more...
2026-07-07 07:27 3mo ago
2026-07-07 01:30 3mo ago
JP Morgan čeká silnější mexické peso do roku 2026
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News 86
Original source text
The Mexican Peso remains one of JP Morgan's preferred emerging-market currencies, with the bank arguing that improving domestic growth, attractive carry and resilient trade flows continue to support MXN.

USD/MXN is forecast to ease from current levels, with JP Morgan targeting 17.35 by September 2026, 17.30 by December, 17.30 by March 2027 and 17.30 by June 2027.

JP Morgan analysts say Mexico's economic outlook has improved after a weak start to the year.

"Some green shoots point to a more benign picture for growth in 2H26."

The bank notes that stronger-than-expected April GDP, a rebound in construction activity and robust services growth have prompted it to lift its 2026 GDP forecast from 1.0% to 1.2%.

JP Morgan also expects Banxico to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% over the coming year as inflation remains comfortably within target.

The bank believes the successful conclusion of the latest USMCA review also removes an important source of uncertainty for investors.

Rather than reopening the agreement, the US, Canada and Mexico agreed to continue negotiations under the existing framework, preserving Mexico's privileged access to US markets.

Carry Trade Still Supports the Peso

JP Morgan argues the Peso's biggest strength remains its attractive yield.

"The structural view for MXN remains constructive, anchored by decent volatility-adjusted carry."

With market volatility easing after the Middle East conflict and Mexico's balance of payments remaining resilient, the bank believes the Peso should continue attracting international capital.
2026-07-07 07:27 3mo ago
2026-07-07 01:48 3mo ago
NZD/USD slábne před rozhodnutím RBNZ
NZDUSD NZD/USD
FMP Forex News 86
Original source text
The NZD/USD exchange rate pulled back a bit on Tuesday, reacting to more weak US macro data, and as traders refocused on the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision. It retreated to 0.5693 from last week’s high of 0.5725.

The New Zealand dollar, commonly known as kiwi, retreated as traders waited for the upcoming RBNZ interest rate decision. Market participants expect that the Anna Breman-led bank will decide to hike interest rates by 0.25%. 

The bank will do that to combat elevated inflation. Recent data showed that the headline CPI rose 3.1% in the first quarter, remaining above its target of 2.0%, as energy prices jumped. 

Ideally, the rate hike should be bullish for the kiwi as it will make it more attractive to investors. However, it could also be bearish, especially if the bank signals that it will not hike again since crude oil and natural gas prices are falling during the US-Iran ceasefire.

This view likely explains why New Zealand’s bond yields are falling. The ten-year yield dropped to 4.45% from last week’s high of 4.485%. Similarly, the rate-sensitive two-year fell to 3.348%.

The RBNZ decision comes at a time when New Zealand’s economy is doing well. A recent report showed that the economy expanded by 1.5% YoY in the first quarter. It was the third consecutive quarter of gains, with the service industry being the main driving force. Goods-producing industries contracted, with the construction sector contracting by 3.8%.

The NZD/USD pair will react to the upcoming FOMC minutes, which will provide more information on Kevin Warsh’s first meeting. In it, officials left interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%, with the dot plot showing that hawks were in ascendance. 9 members hinted that they would support tightening later this year.

Still, it is unclear whether the recent developments will change their outlooks. For example, jobs numbers released last week showed that the economy added 57k jobs last month, lower than the expected 114k. The BLS also revised the previous month’s jobs report lower from 172k to 129k.

Recent PMI numbers also came lower than expected. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global services PMI fell to 54 and 51.2, respectively. Last week’s manufacturing PMI figure also came short of expectations. 

NZD/USD chart | Source: TradingView

Technicals suggest that the recent NZD/USD pair uptrend may be losing steam as the Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped from 38.4 on July 1 to 35 today. The pair has also remained below the 50-day moving average, and has formed a bearish flag pattern. 

These technicals point to more downside in the near term. If this happens, it will drop to the key support level of 0.5621, its lowest level in June this year. A drop below that price will signal that bears have prevailed and push it lower, potentially to 0.5600. A clear bullish breakout will be confirmed if it moves above the 50-day moving average level.
2026-07-07 07:27 3mo ago
2026-07-07 01:58 3mo ago
EUR/USD klesá pod 20denní EMA před zápisem FOMC
EURUSD EUR/USD
FMP Forex News 72
Original source text
The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.1433 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) edges up, while investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.92.

Investors keep an eye on the FOMC Minutes to identify reasons probably responsible for restricting policymakers from delivering forward guidance on monetary policy decisions.

In the June monetary policy press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that policymakers agreed that the “so-called forward guidance is not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.

Like the Fed, officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) also appear not in favor of delivering remarks regarding the monetary policy outlook.

Over the weekend, ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin also denied providing cues regarding the central bank’s decision in July, while speaking at the Rencontres Economiques conference in Aix-en-Provence. “We are not doing forward guidance so I won’t say what we will do in July,” Moulin said.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1430, keeping a bearish near-term tone as the pair holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1460. The fact that price remains under this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies are still being capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.9 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1460, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for a stronger rebound. Looking up, the pair could advance to the psychological level of 1.1500 if it breaks above the moving average.

On the downside, the yearly low around 1.1330 will be the key support zone; a break below it would expose the pair to the 29 May 2025 low at 1.1210.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
2026-07-07 07:27 3mo ago
2026-07-07 02:15 3mo ago
EUR/USD zůstává v pásmu, dolar může oslabit
EURUSD EUR/USD
FMP Forex News 72
Original source text
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes EUR/USD has been stuck between 1.1350 and 1.1450 since mid-June, with few catalysts expected over the summer. He highlights that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to delay its next rate hike to September and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also unlikely to deliver clear signals, which should limit US Dollar (USD) strength and gradually support the Euro (EUR) into next year.

Rangebound pair awaits autumn drivers"Since mid-June, EUR/USD has been fluctuating between 1.1350 and 1.1450, and one is slowly getting the feeling that this could continue for a while longer."

"It therefore seems probable that the ECB will leave the key interest rate unchanged, while at the same time making it clear that another rate hike is possible but not yet certain."

"As for the Fed, the market is currently still pricing in slightly more than one rate hike by year-end. In September, Kevin Warsh will have to say a bit more than just “task force” when asked about the economic situation. We continue to expect that he will not raise interest rates - a development that is likely to weigh on the dollar."

"And the closer we get to next year, the stronger the support for the euro is likely to become. Yesterday’s German industrial orders data showed that a cyclical recovery is slowly taking shape. Structural reforms and expansionary fiscal policy should also help Germany and Europe grow faster next year."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
2026-07-07 07:27 3mo ago
2026-07-07 02:30 3mo ago
GBP/USD beze změny po ústupu britského rizika
EURUSD EUR/USD GBPUSD GBP/USD USDJPY USD/JPY
FMP Forex News 78
Original source text
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Monday as easing UK political uncertainty offset renewed demand for the US Dollar following last week's sharp selloff.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3352, little changed on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.335559 (+0.03%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.141696 (-0.17%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.33951 (+0.61%)

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar attracted support on Monday as US markets reopened following the long Independence Day weekend.

The ‘Greenback’ seemed to have entered oversold conditions following its sharp losses in the wake of last week’s non-farm payrolls report, which reported an unexpectedly large slowdown in job creation.

Therefore, some price-conscious investors were willing to buy the dip, lifting the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, the latest ISM services PMI printed in line with expectations, easing from 54.5 in May to 54 in June. Although this was a slight softening of activity, it still represented a healthy expansion in the US services sector.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) held strong on Monday as investors continued to scale back the political risk premium that has weighed on Sterling in recent weeks.

With MP Andy Burnham widely expected to become the next Prime Minister, markets appear increasingly confident that the UK will avoid a lengthy and disruptive Labour leadership contest.

Burnham has moved to reassure investors since launching his leadership bid, pledging to maintain the government’s existing fiscal rules while also outlining ambitious plans to support the economy.

This has been well received by GBP investors, with Sterling finding support as concerns over UK political instability continue to recede.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Employment Data to Support the Dollar? Looking forward, high-impact data is thin on the ground on Tuesday, with the US weekly ADP employment change figure being the only release of note. This mid-tier data could support the US Dollar, if it reports healthy growth in US private employment.

Elsewhere, market risk appetite could influence the pairing. The safe-haven US Dollar would likely benefit if the market mood sours, while the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound could attract support if sentiment brightens. Any shifts in risk appetite could see GBP/USD waver.