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Today marks the three-year anniversary of what the digital asset community calls "The XRP Victory Day". 

On July 13, Judge Analisa Torres of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York delivered a landmark summary judgment in the SEC v. Ripple Labs case, fundamentally reshaping the cryptocurrency regulatory landscape. 

The historic ruling decisively declared that XRP, in and of itself, is not a security.

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The historic Torres rulingThe legal warfare initiated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in December 2020 sought to classify all sales of XRP as unregistered investment contracts. 

Judge Torres's final ruling, however, rejected this attempt by relying on the decades-old Howey Test for modern digital assets.

Judge Torres ruled that Ripple’s programmatic sales of XRP on public digital asset exchanges did not constitute the sale of securities. She concluded that retail buyers purchasing tokens on secondary markets through blind bid-ask auctions had no way of knowing their funds were going to Ripple. Consequently, these buyers could not have had a reasonable expectation of profits derived directly from Ripple's effort (hence, it failed a core prong of the Howey Test). 

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Conversely, the court sided with the SEC regarding direct institutional sales. Judge Torres ruled that Ripple’s $728 million in direct token sales to institutional players constituted unregistered securities offerings. These sophisticated parties were aware they were purchasing directly from Ripple (and their success depended on the company's efforts).  

On the verge of a shutdown In the meantime, recently surfaced statements from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz confirmed that the company was seriously considering closing its doors. "We almost decided to shut down the company when the SEC sued us," Garlinghouse admitted. "We were like, you know, the government has infinite power and resources." This was due to advice from their lawyers, according to Schwartz.

The XRP community is marking July 13 as “XRP Victory Day,” three years after Judge Analisa Torres issued a split summary judgment in the SEC’s case against Ripple. 

Summary

Ripple’s 2023 ruling protected programmatic XRP sales while leaving institutional transactions subject to securities law. The SEC case ended in 2025 with a $125 million penalty and permanent injunction intact. Ripple leaders now say the company considered closing before choosing an expensive multiyear legal defense. The 2023 order rejected the regulator’s claim that every XRP transaction followed the same legal pattern. It also gave public exchange sales a different outcome from direct institutional deals. The SEC had accused Ripple and two executives of conducting unregistered securities offerings through years of XRP sales and distributions across several channels.

The court did not issue a blanket ruling that every future XRP sale falls outside securities law. Torres wrote that XRP, as a token, was not “in and of itself” an investment contract. She then examined how Ripple offered and sold the asset in separate transaction categories under the Howey test.

Exchange and institutional sales received different outcomes Ripple’s programmatic sales on exchanges did not qualify as investment contracts, the court found. Those trades used blind bid-and-ask systems. Buyers did not know whether Ripple or another holder sold the XRP. The record therefore failed to show that those buyers reasonably expected profits from Ripple’s work.

The decision went the other way for about $728.9 million in institutional sales. Ripple sold those tokens through written agreements to sophisticated buyers. The court found that the contracts, marketing and use of proceeds created an expectation that Ripple’s work could raise XRP’s value. It ruled that those sales violated registration rules.

Ripple says the lawsuit nearly forced a shutdown Recent comments from Ripple executives have added new detail about the pressure surrounding the case. Chief executive Brad Garlinghouse said the company “almost decided to shut down” after the SEC filed its complaint in December 2020. He described the government’s resources as a major concern during internal talks.

Ripple co-founder David Schwartz said some lawyers considered the company “unsavable” and advised executives to seek personal settlements. Those comments describe private discussions and legal advice; they do not prove the SEC intended to close Ripple. As crypto.news reported, Ripple instead continued operating and spent about $150 million on its defense.

Final judgment stayed in place after appeals ended The July 2023 order did not end the lawsuit. The court later imposed a $125.04 million civil penalty and a permanent injunction tied to future unregistered institutional sales. That amount was far below the SEC’s requested remedies, but it confirmed that Ripple had violated federal securities law in one part of its XRP business.

Ripple and the SEC tried to reduce the penalty to $50 million and remove the injunction in 2025. Torres rejected their joint request, saying they had not shown grounds to change the final judgment. Both sides later dismissed their appeals, and the case formally ended in August 2025.

As previously reported, the final outcome left a transaction-based framework. Public exchange sales received more favorable treatment, while direct institutional sales remained restricted. The decision also removed the pending personal claims against Garlinghouse and executive chairman Chris Larsen after the SEC dismissed them in 2023.

XRP Ripple Was Weeks From Closing In SEC Lawsuit Reveals Garlinghouse

Ripple Considered Shutdown, Distributing XRP to Shareholders During SEC Legal Battle, CEO Reveals

The UK Treasury has selected Ripple, the US-based blockchain payments company, as a member of a major government-backed initiative designed to modernize the nation’s wholesale financial markets through tokenization.

Ripple joins top financial institutions in reform groupRipple will be part of a working group composed of 54 organizations, formed under the leadership of Wholesale Digital Markets Champion Chris Woolard and the City of London Corporation. Other members include prominent global financial institutions such as BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan, as well as leading market infrastructure providers Euroclear and Bloomberg.

The government aims to fully replace traditional settlement systems with blockchain technology across wholesale financial markets. This initiative reflects the UK’s ambition to capture a share of the rapidly expanding global market for tokenized real-world assets, which analysts forecast could reach $88 trillion by 2035.

The UK government estimates a transition to on-chain wholesale markets may generate £33 billion in additional annual economic output and boost tax revenues by £14 billion each year by 2035.

By moving established financial activity onto blockchain-based platforms, officials seek to streamline operations and expand the competitive position of London’s financial sector.

Mini dictionary: City of London Corporation, a municipal governing body for the historic center of London, plays a central role in promoting the city as a leading financial hub and supports initiatives aimed at financial innovation and regulation.

Action plan targets digital bonds and tokenized marketsThe group has set a 12-month timetable focused initially on the fixed-income sector, which officials identify as ready for rapid transformation. A key part of the strategy involves launching DIGIT, sovereign digital bonds issued by the UK government, and digitizing collateral markets.

Nine specialized action groups will pursue end-to-end deployment of technological solutions. Their brief also includes live testing of tokenized repurchase (repo) transactions, targeted for completion by spring 2027.

Key Reform TargetImplementation GoalFixed-income marketsImmediate digital transformationDIGIT bondsLaunch as UK sovereign digital bondsTokenized repo transactionsLive end-to-end tests by spring 2027Input from market participants will be collected through September 4, 2026. After this feedback phase, the reform program will advance into implementation, ushering in a new era for Britain’s wholesale capital markets.

Ripple is expected to contribute its global technological expertise to support high-volume institutional transactions as the UK aims for digital innovation in its financial core.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Market data indicates that XRP takes about 1,400 days to reach a new cycle peak.

XRP has been in a correction phase for the past 12 months since reaching its cycle high of $3.6 in July 2025. While market participants await a recovery, historical cycle data suggests the correction may not be finished.

Notably, XRP’s three completed market cycles show that the asset has taken an average of 1,414 days to move from one cycle peak to the next after declining from the previous high. 

With only 360 days having passed since the July 2025 peak, the data points to a possible cycle bottom forming around Q4 2026, while a new cycle high could arrive between May and August 2029 if the historical pattern continues.

Past XRP Cycles Show a Similar Structure XRP’s first major cycle peaked on Dec. 5, 2013, when the price reached $0.0614 after rising 2,017% from the $0.0029 low recorded in August 2013. However, the rally was followed by a sharp decline, and XRP fell to about $0.0028 in July 2014, a drop of roughly 95.4%.

XRP later recovered and reached a new cycle high of $3.31 on Jan. 4, 2017. Essentially, this first peak-to-peak cycle lasted 1,125 days.

The second cycle followed a similar path but lasted longer. After peaking at $3.31 in January 2017, XRP declined for about 27 months before finding a bottom near $0.11 in March 2020 during the COVID-related market crash. 

This move represented a decline of about 96.7%. XRP later recovered and reached $1.96 on April 14, 2021, completing a 1,561-day cycle.

XRP Cycle Tops Meanwhile, following the April 2021 peak of $1.96, XRP dropped to around $0.29 in June 2022, a decline of about 85.2% over roughly 14 months. The recovery that followed pushed XRP to $3.60 on July 18, 2025, exactly 1,556 days after the April 2021 peak.

Averaging all three completed cycles produces a mean cycle length of 1,414 days, which points to a potential new peak in June 2029 from the July 2025 high. This indicates that XRP could find its next cycle top between May and August 2029.

The Bottom May Not Have Formed Yet In addition, historical data provides clues about where XRP could find its next long-term bottom. Previous cycles took an average of 15 months to complete the bottoming process after each peak. If this pattern repeats, XRP could continue correcting through Q4 2026 before establishing a more durable floor.

Also, the size of past corrections supports the possibility. Specifically, XRP experienced drawdowns of 95.4%, 96.7%, and 85.2% in its three completed cycles, averaging roughly 92%.

Applying similar declines to the $3.60 peak produces several downside targets. A decline matching the deepest historical corrections would place XRP near $0.29, which is also the June 2022 cycle low. 

A milder correction similar to the third cycle would point to around $0.53. In addition, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $0.29 to $3.60 sits at $1.00.

Based on those levels, the most likely range for a long-term bottom appears to be between $0.29 and $1.00, with the $0.53 to $0.67 zone representing a middle-ground scenario.

Key Resistance Levels Once XRP completes its correction, several resistance levels could determine the next recovery phase.

The first major level is $1.55, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the full move from $0.29 to $3.60. A sustained push above that level would confirm that XRP has entered a broader recovery.

Above that, the $1.95 to $1.96 area carries additional importance because it matches both the April 14, 2021 cycle peak and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Many previous buyers may look to exit positions around that zone.

The next major resistance stands at $3.31, the cycle high recorded in January 2017. After that, XRP would need to reclaim its $3.60 all-time high before confirming a new cycle breakout.

DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.

Forbes has included XRP among its 10 best cryptocurrencies to invest in for July 2026, placing it fourth behind Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB.

The ranking comes from the publication’s latest review of major digital assets based on factors such as real-world use, market size, recent price performance, and trading activity.

The publication limited its selection to cryptocurrencies with market capitalizations above $5 billion, noting that larger assets tend to show greater stability and attract more institutional interest. 

Besides the top four, the list also includes Solana (SOL), TRON (TRX), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Rain (RAIN), UNUS SED LEO (LEO), and Zcash (ZEC).

Why XRP Made the List According to Forbes, XRP continues to earn attention because of its focus on fast and low-cost cross-border payments. The original XRPL architects developed the cryptocurrency to help move value between different currencies quickly while keeping transaction costs low.

The report noted that XRP traded at $1.11 as of July 10, 2026. At that price, the cryptocurrency had a market capitalization of $69.21 billion, making it the fourth-largest asset in the rankings. Over the previous seven days, XRP posted a modest gain of 0.29%.

Forbes also mentioned XRP’s long-term growth. Since its launch, the asset has climbed about 18,761% to reach its current price. It also reached a 12-month high of $3.65 on July 17, 2025, before pulling back to the current level.

Forbes Weighs XRP’s Strengths Against Its Risks Forbes highlighted XRP’s role in international payments as one of its biggest strengths. The publication noted that Ripple has built partnerships with financial institutions, which give XRP a practical use case that sets it apart from many other cryptocurrencies.

At the same time, the report acknowledged concerns that some investors continue to raise. Unlike Bitcoin, which releases new coins through mining, XRP enters circulation when Ripple sells tokens from its holdings. Forbes said this has led to ongoing discussions over how much influence Ripple has on the token’s supply.

The publication also pointed out that Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen still owns a significant amount of XRP. It presented this concentration of ownership as another factor investors should consider alongside the asset’s strengths.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB Lead the Rankings Meanwhile, Bitcoin took the top spot on the list, with its $1.289 trillion market cap and position as the largest cryptocurrency. Forbes called it digital gold and a store of value, but noted that its proof-of-work network consumes large amounts of energy and processes transactions more slowly than newer blockchain networks.

Ethereum ranked second with a market cap of $216.47 billion. Forbes highlighted its role in smart contracts and decentralized applications alongside its large developer community. However, it also noted that network congestion and high gas fees remain ongoing challenges.

BNB secured third place with a market capitalization of $77.36 billion. The publication mentioned its growing use across the Binance ecosystem and the token’s regular supply burns. 

However, they noted that its future remains tied to Binance’s performance and the regulatory environment surrounding the exchange.

Forbes’ Focus on Utility and Market Size Forbes said it built its rankings by looking at criteria besides price alone. Specifically, the publication focused on cryptocurrencies that boast practical use alongside a long-term investment case.

Notably, market cap played a major role in the selection process. While Bitcoin and Ethereum together account for about 68% of the total crypto market, Forbes also looked at other large-cap projects that could offer a balance between growth potential and relative stability. 

Using those criteria, XRP earned the fourth spot. Forbes based that decision on the asset’s role in cross-border payments, its institutional connections, and its $69.21 billion market capitalization.

DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.

Evernorth, a digital asset treasury company managing multi-million-dollar reserves, has entered the Japanese market as part of its mission to advance the XRP ecosystem. The company’s expansion underlines the growing significance of institutional adoption in Asia for Ripple and its affiliated token, XRP.

Expansion into JapanEvernorth marked the launch of its Japanese operations by introducing a new, dedicated Japanese-language account on the X social media platform. The official @evernorth_jp account described Japan as an early supporter of XRP and expressed the intention to work collaboratively with the local community. The inaugural message referenced Japan’s longstanding faith in the cryptocurrency, stating: “Japan believed in XRP early on. Together, we will build from here.”

The company emphasized that all communications in the region would be analytical and focused on information-sharing. “In this account, we will analyze market movements from our unique perspective and deliver professional content in an easy-to-understand way,” Evernorth stated in its opening announcement, also clarifying that the platform will refrain from discussing token prices or making market predictions.

Japan’s role in the XRP landscapeJapan maintains a notable position within the global XRP community. While Ripple endured lengthy legal uncertainties with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the classification of XRP, Japanese authorities provided early regulatory guidance, giving XRP a credible foundation and fostering innovation within blockchain-based finance.

A central figure in this development is SBI Holdings, a leading Japanese financial conglomerate. SBI Holdings partnered with Ripple to form SBI Ripple Asia, aiming to promote XRP as a mainstream solution for cross-border remittances. The company continues to support initiatives that enhance the practical use of XRP among institutional and retail players.

Mini dictionary: SBI Holdings, a major Japanese financial services group, has invested heavily in blockchain and digital asset technologies, including a strategic partnership with Ripple to facilitate faster cross-border payments using XRP.

Evernorth’s corporate structure and IPO plansEvernorth’s connections to Japan extend beyond market engagement. The company recently revealed plans to go public in the United States and list on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker symbol XRPN. Evernorth intends to raise more than $1 billion through this offering, with the goal of establishing one of the world’s largest publicly managed XRP treasuries.

SBI Holdings has committed $200 million as a lead investor in Evernorth, joining Ripple and other key institutional backers. This anchor investment reflects the company’s continued support for XRP adoption at scale.

EntityRole / ContributionInvestment / ParticipationSBI HoldingsLead anchor investor$200 millionRippleInstitutional investorUndisclosedEvernorthIssuer, manages XRP treasuryTargets $1 billion+ IPOInstitutional ambitions in AsiaEvernorth’s decision to invest in localized operations reflects its ambition to build on established relationships with Japanese financial institutions. Megumi Nakamura, Evernorth’s chief operating officer, identified Japan as a vital testbed for expanding the use of XRP in institutional settings. By aligning its business with a market that already recognizes and utilizes the digital asset, Evernorth aims to drive practical adoption without the regulatory challenges seen elsewhere.

Japan has been recognized as a critical early adopter of XRP, providing the regulatory clarity and financial support necessary to advance blockchain-based payment solutions. As Evernorth deepens its integration in Japan, it seeks to create practical use cases for XRP outside the U.S. regulatory arena.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

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A technical rebound is brewing on the XRP chart, and its timing has coincided almost perfectly with Ripple's leadership carrying out an active effort to correct the narrative. While the token's price was setting new local lows in the $1.02–$1.06 range, the RSI on the TradingView chart began rising steadily from oversold territory.

In technical analysis, this bullish divergence means one thing — sellers are running out of steam, the bearish momentum is fading, and the asset is ready to reverse upward. XRP is now attempting to consolidate at $1.0914 while remaining above the psychological $1.00 level.

XRP price chart with David Schwartz recent post and RSI indicator, Source: TradingViewAt the same time, a full-scale social media drama has unfolded around the project's historic survival. It all began with revelations from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse at the University of Kansas.

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What Ripple management's comments mean for the chartHe admitted that in December 2020, with the company reeling from the SEC lawsuit, Ripple's leadership briefly considered shutting down the firm and distributing its XRP holdings to shareholders. In the end, Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen decided to fight, which cost them $150 million in legal expenses but saved the company.

When media outlets picked up the story and began pushing headlines about capitulation and asset liquidation, Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz sharply pushed back against the panic, saying that his previous comments had been taken out of context: "I never said Brad seriously considered shutting down the company."

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Schwartz recalled the pressure they were under at the time. The lawyers they had hired unanimously insisted that Ripple was "doomed and beyond saving," urging the company to settle immediately, while the personal lawsuits against its top executives were nothing more than pressure tactics from the SEC.

The legal battle did leave a negative mark on XRP, causing the token to lose momentum in global adoption and surrender market share to competitors. The market is clearly tired of old fears, so Schwartz's direct clarification, combined with the bullish signal on the chart, may give the token a strong chance of entering a sustained period of local consolidation.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that they are seriously considering shutting down Ripple entirely after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against the company in 2020.

Speaking at an event at the KU School of Business, Garlinghouse said that the SEC has virtually unlimited power and resources, making the decision of whether or not to fight the case extremely difficult.

According to Garlinghouse, one of the options Ripple had was to distribute its XRP holdings to shareholders and cease operations by notifying the SEC that it no longer held XRP. However, company management assessed that such a decision could lead to hundreds of employees losing their jobs.

Garlinghouse noted that Ripple chose to pursue legal action instead, stating that the company was prepared to undertake a long and costly litigation process to counter the SEC’s allegations and continue its operations.

In December 2020, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple and its executives Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, alleging that the sale of XRP constituted an unregistered securities offering.

*This is not investment advice.

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With payment volume on the XRP Ledger plummeting to almost zero over the past 24 hours, XRP's on-chain activity has suffered yet another severe blow. Recent network data shows that the amount of XRP transferred between accounts fell sharply from a local peak of more than 1.3 billion XRP at the start of July to just 40.5 million XRP on July 12.

Demand for the network is lowSuch a drop seems concerning at first. Because it shows real value moving throughout the network rather than speculative trading activity on exchanges, payment volume is one of the XRP Ledger's most closely watched metrics. Naturally, concerns about declining demand and usage arise when this number drops by more than 95% in a matter of days. 

XRP/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe situation might not be as dire as it appears, though, based on past behavior. The characteristics of the XRP payment volume itself are a crucial component. A few large transfers between institutional participants, exchanges, or whale wallets frequently drive the metric's extreme volatility. Because of this, spikes and collapses often happen without having a long-term impact on the market value of XRP or the overall health of the network. 

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Stabilization isn't happeningAccording to the chart, payment volume sharply increased around July 1 before quickly declining back to typical levels. Over the course of XRP's history, these patterns have repeatedly emerged. They frequently signify the completion of a few exceptionally large transactions rather than a long-term decrease in network activity. Whether a recovery can happen in the next 24 hours is the current question. 

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Surprisingly, the answer is yes. In contrast to indicators like active addresses or wallet growth over the long term, payment volume can almost immediately increase. The number could return to the hundreds of millions of XRP in a single day with a few significant transfers. Because whale activity has a significant impact on the metric, historically, abrupt declines in payment volume have frequently been followed by equally abrupt recoveries. 

XRP is still under pressure in terms of price. The asset is still trading below its main moving averages, and the overall trend is dominated by bearish momentum. However, the decline in payment volume does not necessarily indicate that the token itself will continue to decline. 

For the time being, investors should view the near-zero payment volume reading as a cautionary signal worth monitoring rather than as conclusive evidence that XRP network activity has begun a protracted decline. Determining whether this was just a brief lull or the start of a longer-term slowdown will be crucial over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Recent on-chain data has revealed a sharp drop in payment volume on the XRP Ledger, with activity nearly reaching zero over the past 24 hours. The number of XRP tokens transferred between accounts declined dramatically from over 1.3 billion XRP at the start of July to just 40.5 million on July 12.

Sharp decline in network activityPayment volume is considered a crucial indicator of real value moving through the XRP Ledger, operated by Ripple Labs. This metric excludes speculative trading and instead measures tokens transferred directly between addresses — often linked to payments, settlements, and institutional fund flows.

Observers note that payment volume plunged by more than 97% in a matter of days, raising concerns about a rapid decrease in demand and usage across the network.

However, on-chain analysts caution that such extremes in payment volume are not unusual for XRP. Single large transfers by institutional participants, major exchanges, or so-called “whale” wallets frequently cause the metric to spike or fall dramatically over short periods.

Mini dictionary: Whale wallet, a term referring to a cryptocurrency wallet holding a substantial amount of a digital asset. Actions by whale wallets can cause large fluctuations in on-chain metrics due to the volume of their transfers.

Volatility in historical contextHistorical trends show that XRP Ledger’s payment volumes often experience abrupt increases and declines. For example, after surging at the beginning of July, payment volume quickly reverted to what analysts identify as typical activity levels. These patterns usually reflect several significant transactions, not a permanent shift in network health.

Such volatility means payment volume can rebound as quickly as it falls. Large individual transfers are capable of pushing the daily metric back up into the hundreds of millions of XRP within a single day, making it less reliable as a long-term network health indicator compared to metrics like active wallet growth.

DateXRP Payment VolumeCommentJuly 11.3 billion XRPShort-term spikeJuly 1240.5 million XRPNear-zero activityXRP price under ongoing pressureDespite the fluctuations in network volume, XRP’s price remains under significant pressure and continues to trade below major moving averages. Analysts describe the prevailing trend as driven by bearish momentum, which has so far limited any potential recovery in the asset’s value.

Still, a collapse in payment volume does not directly translate into an ongoing price decline for XRP. Network data from previous months suggests that recoveries in payment activity can occur quickly, depending on the movements of larger holders.

The sudden drop in payment activity does not always signify a long-term decline in real use or market sentiment for XRP, given the metric’s historic volatility due to whale transactions.

For now, analysts view the drop in payment volume as a warning sign, not proof of a prolonged slowdown in network activity. Industry participants are expected to watch closely over the next 24 to 48 hours to determine whether this decrease represents a brief lull or a longer-term trend.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

John Deaton Says 75,000 XRP Holders Helped Ripple Executives Fight SEC

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TL;DR

XRP Ledger AI agents surpassed 1 million transactions, yet total value moved barely exceeded $5,000, showing bots are handling volume, not capital.Chandler Guo, a veteran Chinese Bitcoin miner, forecast a return to $120,000 within a year and a climb to $500,000 within five years, citing capped supply and ETF demand.Robinhood Chain's daily DEX volume hit $877.56 million, edging past Ethereum's $778 million, driven largely by the $CASHCAT memecoin.Spot crypto ETFs booked $281.8 million in net weekly inflows, ending an eight-week streak of outflows, while Bitcoin holds between $61,000 and $66,000.One million transactions for $5,000: Is XRPL's AI economy ready to grow up?A revealing situation has emerged on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) as autonomous AI agents have already completed more than 1 million transactions, yet the total value of these payments in XRP and the RLUSD stablecoin has barely exceeded $5,000, according to XRPL AI Hub.

The impressive one-million figure generated loud headlines, but it also exposed the reality: to secure a meaningful position in the market, the AI economy on the XRP Ledger needs to be measured in billions of transactions, not thousands of dollars.

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The low financial volume is a direct consequence of the structure of current AI traffic. Bots use the blockchain for microtransactions, paying fractions of a cent for API calls, seconds of GPU computing time, or access to text data.

State of agent economy on XRP Ledger, Source: XRPL AI HubXRPL handles these tasks effortlessly thanks to its minimal and predictable fees. Financially, however, the system is still running almost idle. One million transactions prove that machines can communicate with one another, but they are not yet bringing meaningful liquidity to the network.

For the AI ecosystem surrounding XRP and RLUSD to enter the major leagues, it must move beyond the "sandbox" stage and begin managing significant amounts of capital. Real volume will arrive when AI agents stop merely purchasing code and start independently managing corporate funds and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).

Bitcoin at $500,000: Mining veteran Chandler Guo makes bold predictionProminent Chinese miner and early crypto investor Chandler Guo broke his silence on X with a concise prediction: Bitcoin will return to $120,000 within a year and rise to $500,000 over the next five years.

The main value of this statement lies in the author's background. Guo is not a random social media personality but an industry heavyweight who stood at the origins of industrial-scale Bitcoin mining in China. He rarely throws numbers around, which is why his Chinese-language post immediately captured the market's attention.

Chandler Guo predicts Bitcoin to reach $500,000 within 5 years, Source: XBitcoin is currently holding near $63,840, making the half-million-dollar target appear unrealistic. However, Guo's forecast follows a clear logic:

A return to $120,000 is realistic. Bitcoin already tested this level at its 2025 peak, so a return within the next 12 months appears to be a technically justified scenario.The mathematics of scarcity. Fewer than 1 million bitcoins remain to be mined out of the hard-capped supply of 21 million coins. Wall Street agrees. The $500,000 target by the end of the decade aligns with the long-term estimates of Standard Chartered analysts, who link global price growth to capital inflows through spot ETFs.What is the catch? Market history shows that before every major rally, Bitcoin tends to stage severe cyclical corrections that shake out excessively optimistic investors. Mining veterans may be confident about the future, but the speed at which their forecasts materialize will depend on liquidity conditions across global markets.

Robinhood vs Ethereum: How memecoins pushed the broker to the top of the crypto rankingsDefiLlama data recorded a rare shift in the on-chain economy as daily DEX volume on the relatively new Robinhood Chain surged to $877.56 million, surpassing Ethereum's $778 million.

The most remarkable part is the relationship between the figures. Robinhood Chain has only $131.51 million in total value locked. This means users are not simply storing money there but are moving it through the network at extraordinary speed.

Robinhood Chain, a layer-2 blockchain built on Arbitrum, launched on July 1 2026. Management initially planned to develop serious financial instruments and tokenized assets on the network, but retail traders had other ideas. The chain was immediately flooded by a wave of memecoin speculation.

The main hit was CASHCAT, a reference to the historical fact that company CEO Vlad Tenev originally wanted to name the brokerage CashCat. The token's market capitalization quickly surpassed $180 million, accounting for the lion's share of the network's activity.

Top blockchains by 24 hours DEX volume, Source: DefiLlamaThe network's success is also a victory for effective social media marketing. Robinhood understands its audience perfectly. While traditional banks publish dull reports, the broker's official account posts concise lines such as, "We're in a very crypto time of our lives," generating millions of views and creating powerful FOMO.

Vlad Tenev himself played along with the crowd on X. At the height of trading activity, he joked that the network had technically been created for serious DeFi, but that memecoins were also perfectly valid. For the crypto community, this sounded like a green light.

Without spending heavily on advertising, the broker began speaking the same language as crypto "degens" and started pulling liquidity away from other networks.

Should Solana be concerned? Probably not yet. This remains a local triumph for Robinhood, while the leading retail blockchain remains firmly in first place with daily volume of $1.133 billion and a massive TVL of nearly $5 billion.

Crypto market outlook: $197 million ETF comeback and the battle for Bitcoin's codeThe crypto market appears to have found a bottom. Spot ETFs ended an eight-week streak of $8.26 billion in outflows by recording their first $197 million in net inflows.

The market is now caught between renewed institutional demand, an internal developer split over BIP-110, and anticipation surrounding key inflation data. Bitcoin remains within the $61,000–$66,000 range, responding to a total of $281.8 million in capital inflows across all crypto funds.

US spot Bitcoin ETF performance and price action over the past week, Source: SoSoValueKey checkpoints:

ETFs return to the game. After a severe downturn, Bitcoin funds recorded $197 million in weekly inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT with a net result of $292 million. Together with Ethereum funds, total net inflows reached $281.8 million, indicating that overt selling pressure may be running out of steam.Bitcoin holds its ground. BTC remains trapped between liquidity clusters at $61,000 and $66,000 and is confidently holding the $64,000 level despite external logistical shocks affecting global trade routes. A breakout above the $65,000 resistance level or a decline below the $61,000 support level will determine the direction of the broader two-month consolidation.The ideological battle over Bitcoin's code: BIP-110. The BIP-110 upgrade proposes sharply restricting transaction sizes on the Bitcoin network to suppress block-filling protocols such as Ordinals and Runes. The upgrade is currently supported by only 23% of nodes and 1% of miners' hash rate. The decisive battle for consensus, along with the risk of a chain split, is expected in August 2026, with 55% support required.Ethereum begins to regain strength. ETH rebounded from a low of $1,750, while the ETH/BTC pair climbed above 0.028 amid record withdrawals from Binance and growing long positions on Bitfinex. A sustained move above $1,820 would open the way for momentum toward $1,850–$1,900.The macroeconomic trigger. The release of the latest Consumer Price Index data will be the week's main catalyst. Inflation below expectations could trigger a powerful upward short squeeze. If the figures come in hotter than expected, bears could regain control and attempt to push the market below $60,000. You Might Also Like

According to Santiment, XRP Ledger activity has fallen to unusually low levels lately. On the 9th and 10th of July, the network saw only 25,350 and 24,887 daily active addresses.

Source: Santiment These figures were the second-lowest in 2026, Santiment wrote. Moreover, the daily network growth was also at a low figure of 2,130 – The lowest since November 2024.

Traders and investors seemed to be waiting on the wings to buy a real move instead of chasing a shallow price bounce, such as the ones that came in mid-June and early April.

The spot volume trends backed this idea up. The spot CVD for the past 90 days on CryptoQuant was in neutral territory. This metric tracks the aggressive, or taker, participation in the market.

The spot CVD trends have been in decline. Though it was not yet taker sell-dominant, it hinted at reduced buying since March. There was a brief flurry of taker buy activity in May, but it quickly evaporated. At the time, XRP’s price reacted by bouncing towards $1.55, before slumping to $1.10.

Source: Glassnode The exchange net position change has been negative in recent months. Negative values imply XRP tokens flowing out of exchanges, likely to cold storage and accumulation.

However, for context, it was not as heavy as the outflow bouts in 2025.

XRP funding rates stay at extreme lows Source: CryptoQuant Against this backdrop of muted spot buying pressure on XRP, analyst Darkfost believes that the altcoin’s speculative bais might also be firmly bearish.

The 30-day aggregate of funding rates has been negative throughout 2026. Despite the over 70% correction since the coin hit $3.66 in July 2025, the bearish consensus can serve as a clue for a medium-term reversal.

In April 2025 too, sustained negative aggregate funding rates were seen. This correction was followed by a 126% rally, the analyst observed.

Only time will tell if a similar scenario will play out. Spot volume trends need to undergo a big shift to enable such a rally, that is for sure.

Final Summary XRP’s spot demand has been falling and the price was moving sideways about the $1.10 support. Strong bearish consensus even after a deep price correction might be a medium-term bullish reversal sign.

XRP News: Garlinghouse Breaks Silence on Ripple’s Near Shutdown During SEC War

Jul 12, 2026, 6:09 a.m.

2 min read

Summary

Ripple Chief Executive Brad Garlinghouse said he and co-founder Chris Larsen seriously considered shutting the company down and distributing its XRP to shareholders after the SEC sued in 2020.Garlinghouse said they chose to fight the SEC rather than close, a decision he said preserved hundreds of jobs but cost Ripple about $150 million in legal fees over four years.Ripple ultimately prevailed when a federal judge ruled XRP itself is not a security, and the case was settled last year after a change in SEC leadership that has taken a more accommodating stance toward crypto.Ripple came close to shutting down rather than fighting the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Chief Executive Brad Garlinghouse said, describing a decision he and co-founder Chris Larsen faced after the agency sued the company in 2020.

Speaking at the University of Kansas School of Business earlier this week, Garlinghouse said the two seriously considered winding Ripple down and distributing its XRP holdings to shareholders. He described that as the easier path, against a government he said had "infinite power and resources."

Ripple holds a large amount of XRP, and Garlinghouse said the company could have handed it to shareholders on a pro rata basis and dissolved, effectively ending the case by ending the company.

But they chose to fight because shutting down would have cost hundreds of jobs. "I'm glad in retrospect, but that was not obvious at the time," he said.

The SEC sued Ripple in 2020, alleging it had sold XRP as an unregistered security, and named Garlinghouse and Larsen personally. Garlinghouse said he met agency officials four times between 2017 and 2019 without a lawyer and was never told XRP might be treated as a security, which shaped his view that the company had been denied clear rules.

He put Ripple's legal costs at $150 million over the four-year fight.

Ripple prevailed when Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP in itself is not a security. The two sides settled in May last year after the Trump administration installed new SEC leadership that has taken a more accommodating approach to crypto.

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Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2

Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2

Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.

Jul 10, 2026

Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.

Why it matters:

Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.

Ripple CEO says SEC lawsuit nearly ended company, leadership considered shutdown

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has revealed that the company considered shutting down after facing a lawsuit from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2020 over its XRP token. Garlinghouse explained that Ripple’s leadership debated distributing its XRP reserves among shareholders and ending operations, but ultimately chose to defend the company to protect the jobs of hundreds of employees.

Ripple’s legal struggle and financial burdenThe decision to stay operational came at a high cost. Over four years of legal battles, Ripple spent approximately $150 million in legal fees, and its US business activities slowed significantly for about five years as a consequence of the ongoing litigation.

The SEC not only targeted Ripple as a company but also named Garlinghouse personally in the lawsuit due to his sales of XRP. Regulators proposed dropping the case against him individually in exchange for a fine, but he declined, maintaining that both he and Ripple had acted within the law.

Garlinghouse emphasized that shutting down would have risked hundreds of jobs and explained that both he and Ripple stood their ground to ensure the company’s survival despite tremendous legal pressure.

XRP versus Bitcoin: Comparing transactions and technologyGarlinghouse highlighted differences between XRP and Bitcoin, noting that while an XRP transaction typically completes within four seconds and costs less than a cent, a Bitcoin transaction can take about ten minutes and may cost around $10. He explained that Ripple develops and sells financial software to banks and institutions, rather than individuals.

The company’s products use the open-source XRP Ledger to enable quick, low-cost transactions for clients in the financial sector.

Mini dictionary: XRP Ledger, an open-source blockchain designed for fast, efficient, and low-cost cross-border payments, serving as the underlying system for XRP transactions.

AspectXRPBitcoinAverage transaction speed4 seconds10 minutesAverage fee per transactionLess than 1 centAbout $10Intended useBank and financial institution paymentsPeer-to-peer digital cashSEC lawsuit and regulatory clarity concernsGarlinghouse described the SEC’s approach as outdated, arguing that regulators had attempted to apply financial rules from earlier decades to emerging blockchain technologies. He cited the swift legal reforms that supported the internet industry in the mid-1990s, and suggested that the crypto industry required similarly clear regulations to grow responsibly.

Despite Ripple’s requests for guidance, the SEC insisted that XRP constituted a security rather than a currency or commodity. Garlinghouse argued that securities typically offer holders equity or decision-making power within a company, which was not the case for XRP buyers, who received neither shares nor dividends from Ripple.

Ongoing battle and aftermathRipple remains a privately held company, having raised capital from investors through equity funding in 2012, 2015, and 2016. Garlinghouse maintained that while Ripple held substantial XRP reserves, it did not control the XRP Ledger, and likened XRP’s function more closely to Bitcoin than corporate stock.

The SEC’s action was civil, not criminal, but posed steep penalties. During his visits to the SEC office between 2017 and 2019, Garlinghouse represented himself and consistently denied categorizing XRP as a security, stating he simply sought to explain Ripple’s technology to regulators. He said he was never told by SEC officials that they considered XRP a security during these meetings.

Garlinghouse questioned whether the SEC’s logic would make every XRP seller liable for securities law violations, and described the legal tactics as “distasteful” and “maybe unethical.”

After a four-year court battle, Ripple prevailed, though appeals were considered under the former SEC chair. Garlinghouse noted that a change in SEC leadership during the legal process led to a more open dialogue between the agency and crypto companies.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the company seriously considered closing after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued it in December 2020. He said he and co-founder Chris Larsen discussed distributing Ripple’s XRP holdings to shareholders on a pro rata basis and dissolving the business. Garlinghouse described that choice as the easier path against an agency with “infinite power and resources.”

Summary

Ripple considered dissolving and distributing XRP to shareholders before choosing to fight the SEC lawsuit. Garlinghouse said the company protected hundreds of jobs despite spending about $150 million on litigation. The case ended in 2025, while Ripple’s penalty and institutional sales restrictions remained in force. The company rejected the shutdown plan because it would have ended hundreds of jobs. Garlinghouse said Ripple chose to defend itself even though the result remained uncertain. “I’m glad in retrospect, but that was not obvious at the time,” he said during a talk at the University of Kansas School of Business. He estimated that Ripple spent about $150 million on the legal fight. A Wu Blockchain post shared the remarks on July 12, bringing new attention to Ripple’s internal response during the lawsuit’s earliest months.

Ripple CEO Says Company Considered Shutting Down After 2020 SEC Lawsuit

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the company seriously considered shutting down after the U.S. SEC sued it in 2020. He said Ripple could have distributed its XRP holdings to shareholders and told the SEC it… pic.twitter.com/8xuSRIwdyI

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 12, 2026 The case changed how Ripple could sell XRP The SEC accused Ripple, Garlinghouse and Larsen of conducting unregistered securities sales through XRP. The agency said Ripple had raised more than $1.3 billion. The lawsuit placed pressure on the company’s U.S. business, partnerships and access to institutional clients. It also created years of uncertainty over how federal securities law applied to XRP transactions.

Garlinghouse also said he met SEC officials four times between 2017 and 2019 without a lawyer. He said officials never warned him that XRP could be treated as a security, which affected Ripple’s decision to challenge the case. Judge Analisa Torres issued a split ruling in July 2023. She found that Ripple’s programmatic XRP sales on public exchanges did not amount to securities transactions. However, she ruled that some direct sales to institutional buyers broke securities laws. The court later ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty and barred it from repeating unregistered institutional sales.

Appeals ended, but the final judgment remained Ripple and the SEC tried to settle the remaining dispute in 2025. Their proposal would have reduced the penalty to $50 million and removed the injunction. Judge Torres rejected the request because the court had already entered a final judgment. Both sides then dropped their appeals, and the Second Circuit closed the case on August 22, 2025.

A crypto.news review of the case said the end of the appeals did not erase the original judgment. Ripple still faced the $125 million penalty and the permanent injunction tied to future institutional XRP sales. Exchange-based XRP trading received clearer treatment under the 2023 ruling, but the decision did not create a single federal rule for every digital asset transaction.

Ripple expands while U.S. rules remain unfinished Ripple continued to expand after the lawsuit. Recent crypto.news coverage reported that the company secured a full Markets in Crypto-Assets license in Luxembourg. The approval allows Ripple to offer regulated crypto services across the European Economic Area. That gives the company a clearer operating framework in Europe than it currently has in the United States. Crypto.news also reported that Ripple’s European approval arrived as U.S. legal clarity remained tied to federal legislation and the treatment of digital assets.

U.S. lawmakers continue to debate market structure rules that could define when digital assets fall under securities or commodities oversight. For Ripple, the near-shutdown disclosure shows how enforcement pressure shaped its strategy and spending for several years. The company survived the case, kept its workforce and expanded abroad, while some limits from the final judgment remain active.

Some of the most bullish cases envisioned a massive run toward $6 or even beyond.

There’s no need to sugarcoat this article, as it’s simply time for fun, speculation, and price predictions from some of the most widely used and popular artificial intelligence tools out there.

Although they will give their own reasons why they think XRP can go toward $6 and even above that (in some cases), history has shown that the final results are oftentimes quite different from what logic dictates.

Realistic Scenarios We will separate the different forecasts into more realistic sessions and the one from below, which gave wild answers. ChatGPT’s latest version outlined $2.50 as a realistic peak for XRP this year. After all, 2026 has been quite brutal for the crypto market, and Ripple’s token is no exception. It continues to trade well in the red on a YTD scale, having dipped toward $1.00 on a couple of occasions for the first time since late 2024.

“The $2.50 scenario would require XRP to recover alongside the broader market, retain institutional interest, and benefit from Ripple’s expanding regulatory footprint,” said OpenAI’s solution. It added that the company behind the asset recently received full MiCA authorization in Europe, which could serve as a major boost.

Interestingly, Grok and Perplexity shared similar opinions. Both provided larger ranges, but the upper boundary was at $2.50. However, Perplexity believes the lower target is at $1.50, while Grok said it’s around $1.80.

However, Gemini was a lot less bullish on the asset. It noted that a “pragmatic view” puts the token at around $1.40 to $1.65 this year, even though it admitted that XRP has shown resilience in the first half of 2026 despite inflation fears, a hawkish Fed, and growing uncertainty.

Bull Cases When it came to letting their imagination run wild and provide some wildly bullish targets for XRP this year, none of the AIs we asked disappointed. Once again, Grok and Perplexity worked in tandem, indicating that the cross-border token is somehow capable of breaking its 2025 all-time high of $3.65 and setting a new one at around $5.00.

You may also like: XRP Stalls at $1.10: Could Quiet On-Chain Activity Be the Calm Before a Bigger Move? XRP’s On-Chain Data Flashes Warning While Sellers Continue to Dominate Japanese Firms Are Boosting BTC and XRP Holdings – SBI VC Trade Reveals Why Both noted that this would be probable if the CLARITY Act passes in the US, global uncertainty diminishes, and the broader crypto market rebounds significantly from the current levels.

Gemini’s range was quite wide, as its bull case scenario sees XRP peaking somewhere between $2.75 and $6.00. However, it admitted that such a far-fetched target at the moment hinges on Washington, the ETF inflows, investor risk tolerance, and other factors.

ChatGPT was a bit more skeptical, highlighting $4.50 as the highest possible target for XRP even in its most bullish scenario. It would require a “genuine altcoin season, strong and sustained ETF demand, Bitcoin remaining bullish, and convincing evidence that XRPL activity and Ripple’s payments infrastructure are creating demand for XRP itself.”

Tags:

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

XRP continues to trade without a clear fundamental catalyst, still moving sideways near $1.10. At the time of writing, XRP was up 1.22% in the last 24 hours to $1.11 but down 4.93% in the last seven days.

Traders are now watching if XRP's quiet range is setting up a larger breakout; a close above the daily MA 50 at $1.16 will be watched ahead of the daily MA 200 at $1.45. A move above $1.40 would be the first stronger sign that XRP might be breaking out of its broader range.

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Buyers continue to defend the $1.00–$1.05 range, highlighting it as support in case price declines.

Short-term golden cross appearsA golden cross signal has appeared on the XRP four-hour chart, with the timing attracting attention as the token continues to trade in a range, with traders waiting for a catalyst to drive the next move.

XRP/USD 4-Hour Chart, Image By TradingViewThe MA 50 has crossed above the MA 200, indicating a golden cross. The short-term signal comes as XRP Ledger activity hits rare lows. Citing active addresses and network growth, Santiment noted that the XRP Ledger has just seen one of its lowest on-chain days in recent memory.

✍️ TL;DR: XRP Ledger activity hits rare lows as traders wait for catalyst
📊 Metrics Used: Active Addresses, Network Growth
🔗 Live Chart: https://t.co/PU1PeLUccm

📊 XRP Ledger activity has gone unusually quiet while price keeps ranging just below $1.10. The network just saw… pic.twitter.com/AOeavbtxEU

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) July 11, 2026 According to Santiment, XRP Ledger activity has gone unusually quiet as price stayed in a range below $1.10. The XRPL network just saw only 25,350 active wallets, its 2nd-lowest day of 2026, while new wallet creation fell to 2,130, the lowest since November 2024.

After late June saw a rise in dip-buying, Santiment indicated that traders might have now resorted to waiting for a real catalyst before buying again due to a small bounce.

XRP ETFs Break Four-Day Outflow StreakSpot $XRP ETFs recorded a modest net inflow of around $107,000 on Friday, July 10, breaking a four-consecutive-day run of outflows. While the figure is small in absolute terms, it marks the first positive daily flow the products had seen in nearly a week.

Despite the brief recovery, the funds remain in negative territory for the month. The latest withdrawals had pushed cumulative flows into a net outflow of $2.61 million for July 2026. That reversal comes after a strong finish to June, when the funds pulled in $15.34 million on June 29, building on an equally impressive $15.63 million net inflow recorded just days prior on June 26.

Three-Month Inflow Run Now Under PressureThe July softness interrupts what had been a sustained period of investor appetite for the regulated products. According to data from Yahoo Finance, XRP ETFs ended April with roughly $82 million in net inflows, marking the funds' best month since the late-2025 launch period, a reverse of what happened in March, which ended with $31 million in outflows. May then topped that, with May's inflow of $118.29 million surpassing April's $81.59 million to become the strongest month of 2026.

The broader picture for the products remains constructive. Cumulative net inflows across all approved XRP spot ETFs continue to hover around a healthy $1.40 billion mark. As of July 11, 2026, seven XRP spot ETFs are trading in the United States with combined assets under management of around $1 billion and 964.5 million XRP tokens locked.

The leading products include the Bitwise XRP ETF (1XRP) with around $245.3 million in assets, followed by the Canary XRP ETF with approximately $225.9 million and the Franklin XRP ETF with about $167.9 million. Whether the July 10 inflow signals a genuine turn or merely a brief pause in the current negative run remains to be seen, but the month's performance will be closely watched given the three-month positive streak that preceded it.

Sources:
U.Today: XRP ETFs Log One of Biggest Outflows of 2026
Yahoo Finance: XRP ETFs Snap Longest Inflow Streak of 2026
Coinpedia: Spot XRP ETFs Record Largest Outflow Since March

In the last week of June, XRP printed its weakest price since late 2024, briefly touching $1.01 before stabilizing in the $1.05 to $1.13 range where it has traded through early July. The token is down more than 25% for the year and roughly 65% below the $3.65 cycle high it set in July 2025. On the same June days that the chart broke down, tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger crossed $3.5 billion, more than triple the level at which they started the year, spot XRP exchange-traded funds extended a net inflow streak that would reach eight consecutive weeks, and Ripple stood weeks away from full European authorization under MiCA.

Summary

Ripple has delivered record institutional growth in 2026, but XRP remains more than 25% lower this year and near multi-year lows. The article examines both sides of the debate: whether Ripple’s expanding infrastructure will eventually lift XRP or whether the company and token have permanently diverged. Upcoming CLARITY Act votes, ETF flows, XRPL upgrades, and institutional adoption could determine whether the gap between Ripple and XRP finally closes. That is the whole story in one paragraph, and it is genuinely strange. By any operational measure, the 12 months behind Ripple are the most productive in the company’s history: a settled SEC case, launched ETFs, a $1.25 billion prime brokerage acquisition, membership in the clearing infrastructure of American equities, a stablecoin with $18 billion in quarterly transfer volume, and regulatory licenses stacking up on three continents.

By the only measure most holders care about, the same 12 months are the worst since the 2022 bear market. The gap between what Ripple built and what XRP is worth has never been wider, and how that gap closes, upward through the price or downward through the narrative, is now the central question hanging over the fourth largest ecosystem in crypto.

This feature lays out both sides honestly: the case that the infrastructure eventually drags the token up, and the case that the token and the company have simply decoupled, with the price telling the truer story.

The year Ripple built: an inventory It helps to see the accumulation in one place, because no single item explains the disconnect. The pattern does.

Legal closure came first. The SEC’s enforcement case against Ripple, filed in December 2020, formally concluded in 2025 with a financial settlement, ending the overhang that had defined the token’s American existence for half a decade and building on the 2023 court finding that programmatic exchange sales of XRP were not securities transactions.

Then distribution. Spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 across 5 providers and have accumulated roughly $1.49 billion in cumulative net inflows since. May 2026 was the strongest month of the year with $118 million, including a record $60.5 million week.

The streak ran 8 consecutive weeks into July, as crypto.news reported, before showing its first daily pauses, and assets under management sit near $1.05 billion, about 1.5% of the token’s market capitalization, led by Bitwise at $331 million, Canary at $265 million, and Franklin at $262 million.

Then market plumbing. Ripple closed its acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road in October 2025 and rebranded it Ripple Prime. On March 2, 2026, Ripple Prime joined the participant directory of the National Securities Clearing Corporation, placing an XRP-linked institution inside the DTCC complex that clears the bulk of American equity trading and safeguards roughly $100 trillion in assets. DTCC has since named Ripple Prime to the working group of more than 50 firms shaping its tokenization service for Russell 1000 stocks, ETFs, and Treasuries, scheduled for October 2026.

Then the ledger itself. XRPL tokenized assets grew from $991 million on January 1 to $3.5 billion by midsummer. In early May, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Ondo Finance, and Ripple completed the first cross-border tokenized US Treasury redemption on the XRPL, settling in under 5 seconds. Daily transactions hit 3 million on March 15, roughly three times mid-2025 averages.

A protocol amendment from XRPL version 3.1.0 that would enable fixed-term lending through Single Asset Vaults is under validator vote, and support has been climbing toward the 80% supermajority it needs, a governance process crypto.news has tracked as it approaches the threshold.

Then the stablecoin. RLUSD reached a $1.72 billion market capitalization in under a year, moved more than $18 billion in the first quarter alone, and Ripple hedged the strategy in July by joining Open USD, the consortium dollar token backed by Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and more than 140 other companies.

Then the licenses. A full Electronic Money Institution approval from Luxembourg in February, UK Financial Conduct Authority permissions in January, and the full MiCA Crypto-Asset Service Provider license on July 6 that opened all 30 countries of the European Economic Area, arriving days after the transition deadline locked unlicensed competitors out of the bloc.

Any one of these, delivered into the 2024 market, would have produced a rally measured in double digits. Delivered into 2026, the entire list produced a chart that goes down and to the right.

The year XRP traded: an autopsy The price ledger is shorter and harsher. XRP closed 2025 near $1.90 after the July peak at $3.65, rallied to about $2.40 in the new year, then spent 2026 in decline: a sharp February selloff that prompted Standard Chartered to cut its year-end target from $8 to $2.80, a spring of lower highs between $1.28 and $1.50, a June that opened near $1.30 and closed near $1.04, and a July that has been a daily fight to defend the $1 line.

The token trades below every major moving average, with the 20-day near $1.11, the 50-day near $1.20, and the 200-day near $1.52. Relative strength readings in the low 30s mark the deepest oversold territory of the cycle.

Two facts about the decline matter for interpreting it. First, it was market-wide. Bitcoin fell from above $100,000 to below $62,000, briefly touching $58,000. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB fell comparably or worse; total crypto market capitalization shed $2.3 trillion over 8 weeks, and digital assets posted a third consecutive losing quarter, the longest streak since 2022, as institutional capital rotated toward AI equities. Everything outside Bitcoin and Ethereum lost roughly 23% in 6 months. XRP’s beta to that drawdown was high, as it always is, because the token falls harder than Bitcoin when sentiment turns.

Second, and more uncomfortable for the bull case, none of the good news interrupted it. The full MiCA license produced a 3% weekly decline around the preliminary approval and indifference at the final one. The DTCC milestone passed without a candle. The Treasury redemption pilot with JPMorgan, arguably the most institutionally significant event in XRPL history, is invisible on the chart.

The one catalyst the market visibly responds to is legislative: the token jumped 4.5% within an hour of the CLARITY Act clearing committee on May 14, and it sagged when the July 4 signing target slipped, price action crypto.news examined as the delay sank in. The market has, in effect, told everyone what it is waiting for, and it is not another license.

What the forecasters did with the same facts The professional forecasting record around XRP in 2026 is itself evidence of the disconnect, because analysts looking at identical data have produced the widest dispersion of targets for any large-cap asset.

Standard Chartered entered the year at $8 for 2026 and cut to $2.80 in February after the selloff, a 65% downgrade in a single revision, while explicitly leaving its 2030 target untouched at $28. The bank’s stated logic was that regulatory clarity, institutional involvement, and new investment products justify higher long-term valuations, but near-term price action would remain correlated with the broad crypto market. That is the lag thesis and the beta thesis coexisting in one research note.

Bitwise carries a $4.94 year-end forecast. JPMorgan’s contribution is conditional rather than directional: $4 to $8.4 billion of first-year ETF inflows if the CLARITY Act passes, with no comparable estimate under failure. Algorithmic models cluster far lower, in the $1.70 to $2 band, essentially extrapolating the chart. The professional consensus for year-end sits above $2, which would require a 77% rally from current levels in under 6 months, a move the asset has produced before but only during regime changes in sentiment.

Forecast dispersion this wide is unusual for an asset of this size, and it maps precisely onto the two readings of the disconnect. Analysts weighting the infrastructure see multiples of the current price; models weighting the tape see the current price as fair. When the same inputs produce a $1.70 answer and a $28 answer depending on the discount rate applied to institutional adoption, the market is not confused. It is unpriced, waiting on the one variable, classification, that neither the company nor the chart can supply.

The bear reading: the token and the company are different assets The uncomfortable thesis deserves its full strength. Ripple’s success and XRP’s value are linked by a mechanism, and the mechanism is thin.

Ripple the company earns revenue from payments, custody, prime brokerage, and stablecoin float. Almost none of that revenue requires the XRP price to be anything in particular. The company’s own announcements make the point unintentionally: the MiCA license release mentions XRP essentially once, in the boilerplate.

Ripple Payments has moved more than $100 billion across 60-plus markets, but most of that volume settles in fiat or RLUSD, and where it does route through the XRP Ledger, the burned fee per transaction is a fraction of a cent. 3 million daily transactions at those rates destroys token supply at a pace measured in rounding errors. The stablecoin strategy, on this reading, actively competes with the bridge-asset story that once justified the token: every corridor that settles in RLUSD is a corridor that does not need XRP volatility risk.

Supply mechanics deepen the skepticism, and they deserve their own accounting. Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP from escrow every month under a schedule set in 2017, relocking the majority into new escrow contracts while a smaller portion enters circulation through sales and ecosystem distributions. The market has watched this metronome for years, and its psychological weight exceeds its mechanical weight: even in months when net new supply is modest, the release event itself gives traders a recurring reason to expect selling, and expectations of supply function like supply. Set the monthly release against the demand side and the imbalance is stark. The entire ETF complex has absorbed roughly $1.49 billion over 8 months, an average of around $6 million of daily buying, in a token that trades north of $1.4 billion in daily volume.

Institutional flows at that scale can support a floor; they cannot fight a distribution schedule and a bear market simultaneously. The bear case does not need Ripple to fail. It needs only for the demand mechanisms to keep growing slower than the supply mechanisms, which is a fair description of every month of 2026 so far.

There is also the exchange migration to consider from the skeptical side. Tokens leaving exchanges for ETF custody are commonly read as bullish scarcity, but a share of that movement is simply the same speculative holders changing wrappers, retail selling spot that funds buy into trusts, with no net new demand created. The flow data cannot distinguish conviction from repackaging, which is why the bears discount it. The comparison Brad Garlinghouse himself invited when he attacked Michael Saylor’s leverage model cuts both ways, as crypto.news observed: both Strategy and Ripple sit atop enormous token treasuries whose value depends on a market they are simultaneously supplying.

On this view, the 2026 chart is not a mispricing. It is the market correctly concluding that owning XRP is not owning Ripple, that the institutional build-out accrues to Ripple’s private shareholders, and that the token’s fair value is whatever speculative demand plus modest utility demand will bear in a risk-off tape. The disconnect is not a gap waiting to close. It is the honest spread between an equity story and a token story that were never the same story.

The bull reading: infrastructure is demand with a lag The counterargument does not deny any of that. It argues the causality has a delay measured in years, and that 2026 is the trough of the lag, not the verdict.

Start with the demand channels that did not exist 18 months ago. ETFs holding $1.05 billion sound small against a $69 billion market cap until you note the direction and the constraint: 8 straight weeks of net inflows through the worst quarter since 2022, from a buyer base that is still legally capped. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and most insurance portfolios cannot allocate to an unclassified asset at all.

That is precisely the constraint the CLARITY Act removes by making XRP a digital commodity under CFTC oversight, and it is why JPMorgan and Standard Chartered independently project $4 to $8.4 billion in first-year inflows under passage, a 5- to 8-fold expansion of the current ETF base. The bill’s merged draft is due the week of July 13, with floor action targeted a week later. The single largest catalyst in the token’s history has a date range attached to it.

Second, the utility story is finally measurable instead of theoretical. Tokenized assets tripling to $3.5 billion, a functioning institutional redemption pilot with the largest bank in America, a lending protocol approaching validator approval, and RLUSD volume in the tens of billions are all activity that lives on the ledger whose native asset is XRP.

The fee-burn mechanism is tiny per transaction, but the investment case was never fee burn; it is that reserve requirements, liquidity provisioning, and settlement paths on a busy institutional ledger create structural demand for the asset that denominates it. Japan already offers the proof of concept, where SBI’s remittance corridors made the country the one place XRP is used at scale in production, a story crypto.news has documented, and Europe post-MiCA is the first market since Japan where Ripple holds the full regulatory stack to attempt a repeat.

Third, the on-chain footprint of conviction is visible even at the lows. Whale accumulation ran through the spring, with roughly 450 million XRP moving through Binance in a 10-day stretch in March, wallet creation hit a 3-month high near 5,000 per day in late June, and large-holder balances rose while retail sentiment collapsed. Someone with size is treating $1 as a level to buy, and the historical pattern in this asset is that accumulation phases at multi-month lows precede the violent repricings the token is famous for. July, for what it is worth, is historically XRP’s strongest month, averaging around 10% gains, though seasonality in a fear-gripped market deserves limited weight.

The bull synthesis: the company spent 2026 building the pipes, the law that fills them sits 3 weeks from a vote, and the price is a coiled spring compressed by macro conditions that have nothing to do with Ripple. Standard Chartered, even after cutting its 2026 target to $2.80, left its 2030 target at $28, which is the lag thesis expressed as a forecast.

The map of the battlefield at $1 For traders, the disconnect compresses into a few price zones that both camps agree on even while disagreeing about everything else.

Support is a dense band between $1.00 and $1.06, where a thick concentration of historical buying has absorbed every test since late June, including seven separate probes of the $1.04 to $1.06 area. Beneath it, the map goes dark: a decisive daily close below $1 opens territory the token has not traded since 2024, with the next meaningful demand zone estimated between $0.80 and $0.90. The bounce attempts of early July have built a sequence of higher lows above $1.03, and the immediate breakout zone sits at $1.056 to $1.066, where a surge of volume, at one point 1,400% above the hourly average, marked the strongest buying of the month.

Resistance begins where the moving averages live. The 20-day average near $1.11 and the descending channel midline have capped every rally attempt; above that, $1.18 to $1.20 is the zone that separates a technical bounce from a trend change, since it contains the 50-day average and the highs of the last failed breakout. A move through $1.20 would be the first structural repair of the year. The level that matters for the larger argument is further up: analysts broadly treat $1.65 as the line above which the downtrend that began at $3.65 would formally be broken.

The holder structure beneath those levels is where the two theses interact most directly. Exchange balances have been falling as tokens migrate to ETF custodians and cold storage, whale addresses have grown through the decline, and the retail cohort, measured by funding rates and sentiment indexes reading extreme fear, is maximally absent.

That configuration, shrinking liquid supply against a depressed price, is the classic setup for violent moves in both directions: thin order books amplify whatever catalyst arrives. A CLARITY passage into this structure would meet little overhead supply until the mid-$1.20s. A failure into this structure would find equally little bid support below $1. The market has arranged itself for an outsized reaction to a binary event, which is rational, because that is exactly what the calendar is offering.

What would actually settle the argument Disconnects resolve through evidence, and four specific markers will decide which reading was right.

The CLARITY floor vote before the August 7 recess is the binary. Passage activates the constrained buyer base and converts the classification question from risk to fact; failure removes the identified catalyst and hands the bear thesis another year of confirmation. Nothing else on this list matters as much.

XRPL settlement disclosures are the slow variable. Europe will produce client announcements through the fall; the tell is whether named institutions settle on the ledger or through RLUSD and fiat rails that bypass the token. Every disclosure is a data point for exactly the mechanism the two camps dispute.

ETF flow behavior around the $1 level tests the institutional bid. The first net outflow day arrived on June 30 as the quarter closed. If inflows resume through a flat tape, the allocation story survives the drawdown. If outflows follow the price down, the ETF base was momentum money wearing an institutional costume.

The lending amendment vote tests whether the ledger’s institutional roadmap ships. Validator support has been grinding toward the 80% threshold; activation would open uncollateralized fixed-term credit through Single Asset Vaults, the first XRPL primitive aimed squarely at the institutional DeFi demand the bull case requires.

One more marker sits outside the token entirely: Ripple’s own capital decisions. The company has explored an initial public offering intermittently, and hints have circulated that XRP holders might somehow participate in a listing. Nothing concrete has emerged, and nothing should be assumed, but the scenario clarifies the stakes of the disconnect better than any chart.

If Ripple lists, the market will finally price the company and the token side by side, in public, every trading day. Either the equity valuation validates the institutional story and drags attention back to the ledger that underpins it, or investors will buy the company and continue ignoring the token, at which point the decoupling thesis stops being a thesis and becomes a quote on two screens. The company has every incentive to make the token matter before that comparison goes live.

For holders, the practical takeaway is about position sizing against a calendar, not about conviction in either narrative. The next 26 days contain the merged CLARITY draft, a possible floor vote, the July escrow release, continuing ETF flow data, and the validator vote on the lending amendment. That is an unusual density of resolution for a single month. The disconnect between Ripple’s year and XRP’s year has been stable precisely because nothing forced the two stories to reconcile. The Senate schedule is about to force it.

The widest gap in crypto right now is not between any two tokens. It is between a company having its best year and a token having its worst, wearing the same three letters. Markets close gaps like this one eventually, and they are indifferent about the direction. 26 days of Senate calendar will supply the first, and probably decisive, piece of the answer.