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With payment volume on the XRP Ledger plummeting to almost zero over the past 24 hours, XRP's on-chain activity has suffered yet another severe blow. Recent network data shows that the amount of XRP transferred between accounts fell sharply from a local peak of more than 1.3 billion XRP at the start of July to just 40.5 million XRP on July 12.
Demand for the network is lowSuch a drop seems concerning at first. Because it shows real value moving throughout the network rather than speculative trading activity on exchanges, payment volume is one of the XRP Ledger's most closely watched metrics. Naturally, concerns about declining demand and usage arise when this number drops by more than 95% in a matter of days.
XRP/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe situation might not be as dire as it appears, though, based on past behavior. The characteristics of the XRP payment volume itself are a crucial component. A few large transfers between institutional participants, exchanges, or whale wallets frequently drive the metric's extreme volatility. Because of this, spikes and collapses often happen without having a long-term impact on the market value of XRP or the overall health of the network.
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Stabilization isn't happeningAccording to the chart, payment volume sharply increased around July 1 before quickly declining back to typical levels. Over the course of XRP's history, these patterns have repeatedly emerged. They frequently signify the completion of a few exceptionally large transactions rather than a long-term decrease in network activity. Whether a recovery can happen in the next 24 hours is the current question.
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Surprisingly, the answer is yes. In contrast to indicators like active addresses or wallet growth over the long term, payment volume can almost immediately increase. The number could return to the hundreds of millions of XRP in a single day with a few significant transfers. Because whale activity has a significant impact on the metric, historically, abrupt declines in payment volume have frequently been followed by equally abrupt recoveries.
XRP is still under pressure in terms of price. The asset is still trading below its main moving averages, and the overall trend is dominated by bearish momentum. However, the decline in payment volume does not necessarily indicate that the token itself will continue to decline.
For the time being, investors should view the near-zero payment volume reading as a cautionary signal worth monitoring rather than as conclusive evidence that XRP network activity has begun a protracted decline. Determining whether this was just a brief lull or the start of a longer-term slowdown will be crucial over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Recent on-chain data has revealed a sharp drop in payment volume on the XRP Ledger, with activity nearly reaching zero over the past 24 hours. The number of XRP tokens transferred between accounts declined dramatically from over 1.3 billion XRP at the start of July to just 40.5 million on July 12.
Sharp decline in network activityPayment volume is considered a crucial indicator of real value moving through the XRP Ledger, operated by Ripple Labs. This metric excludes speculative trading and instead measures tokens transferred directly between addresses — often linked to payments, settlements, and institutional fund flows.
Observers note that payment volume plunged by more than 97% in a matter of days, raising concerns about a rapid decrease in demand and usage across the network.
However, on-chain analysts caution that such extremes in payment volume are not unusual for XRP. Single large transfers by institutional participants, major exchanges, or so-called “whale” wallets frequently cause the metric to spike or fall dramatically over short periods.
Mini dictionary: Whale wallet, a term referring to a cryptocurrency wallet holding a substantial amount of a digital asset. Actions by whale wallets can cause large fluctuations in on-chain metrics due to the volume of their transfers.
Volatility in historical contextHistorical trends show that XRP Ledger’s payment volumes often experience abrupt increases and declines. For example, after surging at the beginning of July, payment volume quickly reverted to what analysts identify as typical activity levels. These patterns usually reflect several significant transactions, not a permanent shift in network health.
Such volatility means payment volume can rebound as quickly as it falls. Large individual transfers are capable of pushing the daily metric back up into the hundreds of millions of XRP within a single day, making it less reliable as a long-term network health indicator compared to metrics like active wallet growth.
DateXRP Payment VolumeCommentJuly 11.3 billion XRPShort-term spikeJuly 1240.5 million XRPNear-zero activityXRP price under ongoing pressureDespite the fluctuations in network volume, XRP’s price remains under significant pressure and continues to trade below major moving averages. Analysts describe the prevailing trend as driven by bearish momentum, which has so far limited any potential recovery in the asset’s value.
Still, a collapse in payment volume does not directly translate into an ongoing price decline for XRP. Network data from previous months suggests that recoveries in payment activity can occur quickly, depending on the movements of larger holders.
The sudden drop in payment activity does not always signify a long-term decline in real use or market sentiment for XRP, given the metric’s historic volatility due to whale transactions.
For now, analysts view the drop in payment volume as a warning sign, not proof of a prolonged slowdown in network activity. Industry participants are expected to watch closely over the next 24 to 48 hours to determine whether this decrease represents a brief lull or a longer-term trend.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
XRP has dropped nearly 70 percent from its July 2025 high of around $3.66, trading near $1.12 by early July 2026. That kind of drawdown tests even patient holders. But a growing number of chart watchers say the pain might be masking something bigger playing out underneath.
The Trend Line That Keeps Bouncing
An analyst pointed to a long term ascending trend line that XRP has followed since 2020, one that has already survived three major tests. Each time the price fell back to touch that rising support line, it bounced hard. The first came in April 2020 near 16 cents, followed by a run to nearly $2 a year later. The second came in mid 2022, followed by a climb toward 94 cents. The third arrived in late 2024, setting up the move to last year’s all time high.
Why the Fourth Test Matters
Now XRP may be approaching a fourth test of that same trend line, somewhere in the 74 to 80 cent range. That number matters because of what happened the last time XRP hit a fourth retest on an earlier version of this same structure. Back in February 2017, XRP bottomed near half a cent after three earlier trend line defenses going back to 2013. What followed was a climb to $3.31 by January 2018, a move of nearly 63,000 percent.
A Repeat Is Unlikely, But Not the Point
Nobody serious is predicting XRP repeats that exact percentage gain. The asset is far larger now, the market is more mature, and each retest since 2020 has already produced smaller percentage moves than the one before it. That is normal for an asset that has grown from a fraction of a cent into a multi billion dollar market. Smaller does not mean insignificant. Even a partial repeat of past cycles could still represent a major move from current prices.
The Level Everyone Is Watching
What matters most right now is whether XRP holds that 74 to 80 cent zone if it gets there. A successful defense would strengthen the case that the broader structure remains intact. A break below it, with no reclaim, would weaken the comparison to past cycles significantly.
Markets do not repeat perfectly, and old patterns fail more often than headlines suggest. But the setup gives holders a specific level to watch instead of reacting purely to short term price swings, and that distinction alone is shaping how traders are approaching the next few months.
Story Ends Here
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The XRP products continue to operate differently than those tracking BTC and ETH.
For weeks and weeks, the spot Ripple ETFs, alongside HYPE and sometimes SOL, dominated all cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds, while the market leaders suffered.
However, this trend has finally changed as the financial vehicles tracking the performance of the cross-border token turned red in the past week for the first time in over two months.
Streak Broken Although the actual numbers were not as impressive as they were back in October, November, and December last year when the XRP ETFs launched, they were still in the green for nine consecutive weeks. Moreover, the only week that broke that streak saw a minor $35.21K (not millions) in net outflows, so it doesn’t really count. Within this timeframe, the total net inflows rose from under $1.29 billion to a new all-time high of $1.49 billion as of July 2.
However, the tides finally turned in the past five business days. Interestingly, though, only one day was in the red, with $7.29 million leaving the funds on July 8. A minor $107.38K entered the funds on Friday, while the other three trading days saw no reportable action, according to SoSoValue data.
Spot XRP ETF Inflows. Source: SoSoValue This is rather concerning as XRP has seen similar net inflow-free days in the past, but that wasn’t the case in the last few months. Now, though, investors appear to have turned their attention away from Ripple’s token and back to the market leaders. As reported yesterday, both the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded their first green week in two months, with net inflows of almost $200 million and $84 million, respectively.
XRP Price Stalls Despite the major net inflows for nine weeks, Ripple’s native coin failed to capitalize and record any substantial gains in that time. However, the net ouflows in the past week seem to have harmed it, as current data from CoinGecko shows a 3.2% decline over the past week.
XRP challenged the $1.15 resistance earlier this week, but it was halted there, and the subsequent rejection pushed it south to under $1.10. Although it has rebounded to that level now, the uncertainty continues as many analysts expect a major move ahead.
You may also like: XRP Stalls at $1.10: Could Quiet On-Chain Activity Be the Calm Before a Bigger Move? XRP’s On-Chain Data Flashes Warning While Sellers Continue to Dominate Japanese Firms Are Boosting BTC and XRP Holdings – SBI VC Trade Reveals Why The direction, as usual, is unknown, but the overall belief within the crypto community is that XRP has reached a decision point and it could either head below $1.00 soon or rocket toward new local peaks.
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
TL;DR
XRP Ledger AI agents surpassed 1 million transactions, yet total value moved barely exceeded $5,000, showing bots are handling volume, not capital.Chandler Guo, a veteran Chinese Bitcoin miner, forecast a return to $120,000 within a year and a climb to $500,000 within five years, citing capped supply and ETF demand.Robinhood Chain's daily DEX volume hit $877.56 million, edging past Ethereum's $778 million, driven largely by the $CASHCAT memecoin.Spot crypto ETFs booked $281.8 million in net weekly inflows, ending an eight-week streak of outflows, while Bitcoin holds between $61,000 and $66,000.One million transactions for $5,000: Is XRPL's AI economy ready to grow up?A revealing situation has emerged on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) as autonomous AI agents have already completed more than 1 million transactions, yet the total value of these payments in XRP and the RLUSD stablecoin has barely exceeded $5,000, according to XRPL AI Hub.
The impressive one-million figure generated loud headlines, but it also exposed the reality: to secure a meaningful position in the market, the AI economy on the XRP Ledger needs to be measured in billions of transactions, not thousands of dollars.
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The low financial volume is a direct consequence of the structure of current AI traffic. Bots use the blockchain for microtransactions, paying fractions of a cent for API calls, seconds of GPU computing time, or access to text data.
State of agent economy on XRP Ledger, Source: XRPL AI HubXRPL handles these tasks effortlessly thanks to its minimal and predictable fees. Financially, however, the system is still running almost idle. One million transactions prove that machines can communicate with one another, but they are not yet bringing meaningful liquidity to the network.
For the AI ecosystem surrounding XRP and RLUSD to enter the major leagues, it must move beyond the "sandbox" stage and begin managing significant amounts of capital. Real volume will arrive when AI agents stop merely purchasing code and start independently managing corporate funds and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).
Bitcoin at $500,000: Mining veteran Chandler Guo makes bold predictionProminent Chinese miner and early crypto investor Chandler Guo broke his silence on X with a concise prediction: Bitcoin will return to $120,000 within a year and rise to $500,000 over the next five years.
The main value of this statement lies in the author's background. Guo is not a random social media personality but an industry heavyweight who stood at the origins of industrial-scale Bitcoin mining in China. He rarely throws numbers around, which is why his Chinese-language post immediately captured the market's attention.
Chandler Guo predicts Bitcoin to reach $500,000 within 5 years, Source: XBitcoin is currently holding near $63,840, making the half-million-dollar target appear unrealistic. However, Guo's forecast follows a clear logic:
A return to $120,000 is realistic. Bitcoin already tested this level at its 2025 peak, so a return within the next 12 months appears to be a technically justified scenario.The mathematics of scarcity. Fewer than 1 million bitcoins remain to be mined out of the hard-capped supply of 21 million coins. Wall Street agrees. The $500,000 target by the end of the decade aligns with the long-term estimates of Standard Chartered analysts, who link global price growth to capital inflows through spot ETFs.What is the catch? Market history shows that before every major rally, Bitcoin tends to stage severe cyclical corrections that shake out excessively optimistic investors. Mining veterans may be confident about the future, but the speed at which their forecasts materialize will depend on liquidity conditions across global markets.
Robinhood vs Ethereum: How memecoins pushed the broker to the top of the crypto rankingsDefiLlama data recorded a rare shift in the on-chain economy as daily DEX volume on the relatively new Robinhood Chain surged to $877.56 million, surpassing Ethereum's $778 million.
The most remarkable part is the relationship between the figures. Robinhood Chain has only $131.51 million in total value locked. This means users are not simply storing money there but are moving it through the network at extraordinary speed.
Robinhood Chain, a layer-2 blockchain built on Arbitrum, launched on July 1 2026. Management initially planned to develop serious financial instruments and tokenized assets on the network, but retail traders had other ideas. The chain was immediately flooded by a wave of memecoin speculation.
The main hit was CASHCAT, a reference to the historical fact that company CEO Vlad Tenev originally wanted to name the brokerage CashCat. The token's market capitalization quickly surpassed $180 million, accounting for the lion's share of the network's activity.
Top blockchains by 24 hours DEX volume, Source: DefiLlamaThe network's success is also a victory for effective social media marketing. Robinhood understands its audience perfectly. While traditional banks publish dull reports, the broker's official account posts concise lines such as, "We're in a very crypto time of our lives," generating millions of views and creating powerful FOMO.
Vlad Tenev himself played along with the crowd on X. At the height of trading activity, he joked that the network had technically been created for serious DeFi, but that memecoins were also perfectly valid. For the crypto community, this sounded like a green light.
Without spending heavily on advertising, the broker began speaking the same language as crypto "degens" and started pulling liquidity away from other networks.
Should Solana be concerned? Probably not yet. This remains a local triumph for Robinhood, while the leading retail blockchain remains firmly in first place with daily volume of $1.133 billion and a massive TVL of nearly $5 billion.
Crypto market outlook: $197 million ETF comeback and the battle for Bitcoin's codeThe crypto market appears to have found a bottom. Spot ETFs ended an eight-week streak of $8.26 billion in outflows by recording their first $197 million in net inflows.
The market is now caught between renewed institutional demand, an internal developer split over BIP-110, and anticipation surrounding key inflation data. Bitcoin remains within the $61,000–$66,000 range, responding to a total of $281.8 million in capital inflows across all crypto funds.
US spot Bitcoin ETF performance and price action over the past week, Source: SoSoValueKey checkpoints:
ETFs return to the game. After a severe downturn, Bitcoin funds recorded $197 million in weekly inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT with a net result of $292 million. Together with Ethereum funds, total net inflows reached $281.8 million, indicating that overt selling pressure may be running out of steam.Bitcoin holds its ground. BTC remains trapped between liquidity clusters at $61,000 and $66,000 and is confidently holding the $64,000 level despite external logistical shocks affecting global trade routes. A breakout above the $65,000 resistance level or a decline below the $61,000 support level will determine the direction of the broader two-month consolidation.The ideological battle over Bitcoin's code: BIP-110. The BIP-110 upgrade proposes sharply restricting transaction sizes on the Bitcoin network to suppress block-filling protocols such as Ordinals and Runes. The upgrade is currently supported by only 23% of nodes and 1% of miners' hash rate. The decisive battle for consensus, along with the risk of a chain split, is expected in August 2026, with 55% support required.Ethereum begins to regain strength. ETH rebounded from a low of $1,750, while the ETH/BTC pair climbed above 0.028 amid record withdrawals from Binance and growing long positions on Bitfinex. A sustained move above $1,820 would open the way for momentum toward $1,850–$1,900.The macroeconomic trigger. The release of the latest Consumer Price Index data will be the week's main catalyst. Inflation below expectations could trigger a powerful upward short squeeze. If the figures come in hotter than expected, bears could regain control and attempt to push the market below $60,000. You Might Also Like
Crypto markets held firm on Sunday, with Bitcoin (BTC) near $64,000, as digital assets absorbed fresh US strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz once more.
The muted move breaks from earlier in the war. Bitcoin fell about 2% and slid toward $61,000 after June’s escalation, a far steeper reaction than today’s 0.33% dip.
US Launches Third Round of Strikes on IranIran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and fired on a commercial vessel. The move defied a US demand to guarantee passage through the waterway.
In response, US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched a third round of strikes. Forces hit roughly 140 targets.
Those targets included missile and drone sites, naval assets, and coastal surveillance posts.
“During three nights of strikes this week, CENTCOM has struck more than 300 targets… to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial vessels freely transiting the strait,” CENTCOM said.
The conflict widened across the Gulf. Iran claimed attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.
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#بيان | تعرب وزارة الخارجية عن إدانة واستنكار المملكة العربية السعودية بأشدّ العبارات استمرار إيران في سلوكها المزعزع لأمن المنطقة واستقرارها، وانتهاكها لمبادئ القانون الدولي وميثاق الأمم المتحدة وميثاق منظمة التعاون الإسلامي وقواعد حسن الجوار، وذلك بتكرار الاعتداءات الإيرانية… pic.twitter.com/PlXIfEyKjR
— وزارة الخارجية 🇸🇦 (@KSAMOFA) July 12, 2026 Crypto Shrugs Off the EscalationDespite the escalation, major tokens barely moved. Bitcoin posted a 0.33% daily loss. Ethereum (ETH) traded around $1,801, up 2.18% over the past 7 days. XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) each fell less than 2% on the day.
Crypto Markets Show Resilience as US-Iran Conflict Escalates. Source: BeInCrypto MarketsOil markets, shut for the weekend, could open higher on Monday. Brent held near $76 a barrel on Friday. Another prolonged closure could rattle energy markets and lift prices as traders price in tighter supply.
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According to Santiment, XRP Ledger activity has fallen to unusually low levels lately. On the 9th and 10th of July, the network saw only 25,350 and 24,887 daily active addresses.
Source: Santiment These figures were the second-lowest in 2026, Santiment wrote. Moreover, the daily network growth was also at a low figure of 2,130 – The lowest since November 2024.
Traders and investors seemed to be waiting on the wings to buy a real move instead of chasing a shallow price bounce, such as the ones that came in mid-June and early April.
The spot volume trends backed this idea up. The spot CVD for the past 90 days on CryptoQuant was in neutral territory. This metric tracks the aggressive, or taker, participation in the market.
The spot CVD trends have been in decline. Though it was not yet taker sell-dominant, it hinted at reduced buying since March. There was a brief flurry of taker buy activity in May, but it quickly evaporated. At the time, XRP’s price reacted by bouncing towards $1.55, before slumping to $1.10.
Source: Glassnode The exchange net position change has been negative in recent months. Negative values imply XRP tokens flowing out of exchanges, likely to cold storage and accumulation.
However, for context, it was not as heavy as the outflow bouts in 2025.
XRP funding rates stay at extreme lows Source: CryptoQuant Against this backdrop of muted spot buying pressure on XRP, analyst Darkfost believes that the altcoin’s speculative bais might also be firmly bearish.
The 30-day aggregate of funding rates has been negative throughout 2026. Despite the over 70% correction since the coin hit $3.66 in July 2025, the bearish consensus can serve as a clue for a medium-term reversal.
In April 2025 too, sustained negative aggregate funding rates were seen. This correction was followed by a 126% rally, the analyst observed.
Only time will tell if a similar scenario will play out. Spot volume trends need to undergo a big shift to enable such a rally, that is for sure.
Final Summary XRP’s spot demand has been falling and the price was moving sideways about the $1.10 support. Strong bearish consensus even after a deep price correction might be a medium-term bullish reversal sign.
From SBI's expanding Ripple partnership to potential crypto ETF reforms, Japan's role is growing.
Even in times when XRP and the company behind it were not in good shape in their home country, Japan has long stood out as a major ally. However, the most recent regulatory and institutional developments suggest that the country could play an even bigger role in their future.
Over the past several months, Japan has accelerated efforts to modernize its digital asset framework and has proposed legal reforms to classify many cryptocurrencies as financial instruments, paving the way for spot ETFs. It also introduced a more investor-friendly tax regime.
Although the legislation still needs to complete the entire process before such financial vehicles are allowed to launch, the direction has become increasingly clearer. This could be significantly beneficial for XRP.
XRP, Ripple, and Japan For starters, SBI continues with its pro-Ripple initiatives. Both parties have been tangled for years through SBI Ripple Asia to expand cross-border payments across the region. Meanwhile, SBI VC Trade remains one of Japan’s largest XRP-friendly exchanges.
Most recently, Ripple and SBI announced that the former’s stablecoin, RLUSD, has launched in the country after receiving approval from the Japan Financial Services Agency (JFSA), which expanded their partnership into the regulated stablecoin market.
SBI has also filed for a product that could eventually become the first Japan-based XRP ETF. Instead of pairing the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, the proposed products went for BTC and XRP, highlighting the firm’s conviction that Ripple’s token could become a core institutional asset in the country.
Institutional Demand Given the relatively short history of the cryptocurrency industry and the lack of regulation in most jurisdictions, proper regulatory frameworks can open the door for additional investments from larger players and institutions. Japan has been at the forefront of crypto regulation, and XRP has generally benefited from this.
You may also like: Circle Receives Final Green Light to Establish National Trust Bank Ripple Rolls Out New XRPL Upgrade, but Less Than Half of Nodes Have Upgraded Ripple Lands Major XRP Partnership as Garlinghouse Shares Rare Personal Moment Unlike the prolonged legal battle Ripple endured in the US against the SEC, Japanese regulators have long treated its token as a crypto asset rather than a security. Combined with SBI’s banking relationships and Ripple’s growing enterprise presence, that regulatory certainty has helped create one of XRP’s strongest international footholds.
If Japan indeed approves spot crypto ETFs, XRP could be among the earliest beneficiaries, thanks to its history and the infrastructure already in place there.
Ripple Chief Executive Brad Garlinghouse said he and co-founder Chris Larsen seriously considered shutting the company down and distributing its XRP to shareholders after the SEC sued in 2020.Garlinghouse said they chose to fight the SEC rather than close, a decision he said preserved hundreds of jobs but cost Ripple about $150 million in legal fees over four years.Ripple ultimately prevailed when a federal judge ruled XRP itself is not a security, and the case was settled last year after a change in SEC leadership that has taken a more accommodating stance toward crypto.Ripple came close to shutting down rather than fighting the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Chief Executive Brad Garlinghouse said, describing a decision he and co-founder Chris Larsen faced after the agency sued the company in 2020.
Speaking at the University of Kansas School of Business earlier this week, Garlinghouse said the two seriously considered winding Ripple down and distributing its XRP holdings to shareholders. He described that as the easier path, against a government he said had "infinite power and resources."
Ripple holds a large amount of XRP, and Garlinghouse said the company could have handed it to shareholders on a pro rata basis and dissolved, effectively ending the case by ending the company.
But they chose to fight because shutting down would have cost hundreds of jobs. "I'm glad in retrospect, but that was not obvious at the time," he said.
The SEC sued Ripple in 2020, alleging it had sold XRP as an unregistered security, and named Garlinghouse and Larsen personally. Garlinghouse said he met agency officials four times between 2017 and 2019 without a lawyer and was never told XRP might be treated as a security, which shaped his view that the company had been denied clear rules.
He put Ripple's legal costs at $150 million over the four-year fight.
Ripple prevailed when Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP in itself is not a security. The two sides settled in May last year after the Trump administration installed new SEC leadership that has taken a more accommodating approach to crypto.
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Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2
Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2
Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.
Jul 10, 2026
Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.
Why it matters:
Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.
Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, disclosed that the company considered shutting down in 2020 and distributing its XRP holdings to shareholders. This revelation highlights the strategic decisions Ripple faced during its legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). At the time, Ripple owned a significant portion of XRP’s supply, which could have been transferred to equity holders if the company had dissolved. The decision to persist instead of dissolving reflects a deliberate choice to maintain the separation between XRP as a digital asset and Ripple’s corporate equity, amid regulatory challenges.
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Key Takeaways The disclosure by Ripple’s CEO suggests that the company once contemplated a significant strategic shift in response to regulatory pressure. Ripple’s decision to continue operating indicates a strategic choice to separate XRP’s digital asset status from corporate equity. Current market pricing suggests reduced confidence in XRP reaching the $3.00 mark in July, reflecting a potential impact from this revelation. What to Watch Market participants will likely monitor Ripple’s ongoing legal developments with the SEC and any strategic shifts by the company. Changes in regulatory clarity or major announcements from Ripple could affect market confidence in XRP’s price trajectory. Observers may also watch for any further comments from Ripple’s leadership that could influence perceptions of the company’s stability and the asset’s future.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h August 1 2026 0.2% — — View market → August 1 2026 3.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.7% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.2% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.3% — — View market → August 1 2026 8.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 1.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 4.2% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.5% — — View market →
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has revealed that the company considered shutting down after facing a lawsuit from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2020 over its XRP token. Garlinghouse explained that Ripple’s leadership debated distributing its XRP reserves among shareholders and ending operations, but ultimately chose to defend the company to protect the jobs of hundreds of employees.
Ripple’s legal struggle and financial burdenThe decision to stay operational came at a high cost. Over four years of legal battles, Ripple spent approximately $150 million in legal fees, and its US business activities slowed significantly for about five years as a consequence of the ongoing litigation.
The SEC not only targeted Ripple as a company but also named Garlinghouse personally in the lawsuit due to his sales of XRP. Regulators proposed dropping the case against him individually in exchange for a fine, but he declined, maintaining that both he and Ripple had acted within the law.
Garlinghouse emphasized that shutting down would have risked hundreds of jobs and explained that both he and Ripple stood their ground to ensure the company’s survival despite tremendous legal pressure.
XRP versus Bitcoin: Comparing transactions and technologyGarlinghouse highlighted differences between XRP and Bitcoin, noting that while an XRP transaction typically completes within four seconds and costs less than a cent, a Bitcoin transaction can take about ten minutes and may cost around $10. He explained that Ripple develops and sells financial software to banks and institutions, rather than individuals.
The company’s products use the open-source XRP Ledger to enable quick, low-cost transactions for clients in the financial sector.
Mini dictionary: XRP Ledger, an open-source blockchain designed for fast, efficient, and low-cost cross-border payments, serving as the underlying system for XRP transactions.
AspectXRPBitcoinAverage transaction speed4 seconds10 minutesAverage fee per transactionLess than 1 centAbout $10Intended useBank and financial institution paymentsPeer-to-peer digital cashSEC lawsuit and regulatory clarity concernsGarlinghouse described the SEC’s approach as outdated, arguing that regulators had attempted to apply financial rules from earlier decades to emerging blockchain technologies. He cited the swift legal reforms that supported the internet industry in the mid-1990s, and suggested that the crypto industry required similarly clear regulations to grow responsibly.
Despite Ripple’s requests for guidance, the SEC insisted that XRP constituted a security rather than a currency or commodity. Garlinghouse argued that securities typically offer holders equity or decision-making power within a company, which was not the case for XRP buyers, who received neither shares nor dividends from Ripple.
Ongoing battle and aftermathRipple remains a privately held company, having raised capital from investors through equity funding in 2012, 2015, and 2016. Garlinghouse maintained that while Ripple held substantial XRP reserves, it did not control the XRP Ledger, and likened XRP’s function more closely to Bitcoin than corporate stock.
The SEC’s action was civil, not criminal, but posed steep penalties. During his visits to the SEC office between 2017 and 2019, Garlinghouse represented himself and consistently denied categorizing XRP as a security, stating he simply sought to explain Ripple’s technology to regulators. He said he was never told by SEC officials that they considered XRP a security during these meetings.
Garlinghouse questioned whether the SEC’s logic would make every XRP seller liable for securities law violations, and described the legal tactics as “distasteful” and “maybe unethical.”
After a four-year court battle, Ripple prevailed, though appeals were considered under the former SEC chair. Garlinghouse noted that a change in SEC leadership during the legal process led to a more open dialogue between the agency and crypto companies.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Ripple’s journey from a small blockchain startup to a major player in digital payments narrowly avoided an early end, according to recent remarks from co-founder Chris Larsen. During a recent interview, Larsen revealed that several lawyers had once advised Ripple’s leadership to abandon the company, arguing it was “unsavable” due to steep legal and regulatory barriers.
Ripple’s early struggles and legal risksFounded in 2012, Ripple developed blockchain-based infrastructure aimed at transforming global payments. At the time, the company faced significant skepticism from banks, regulators, and industry insiders about the viability of cryptocurrency solutions for cross-border financial transfers.
Larsen explained that some external legal teams concluded that Ripple’s business faced challenges too severe to overcome. These advisers reportedly urged company executives to withdraw rather than risk further difficulties.
Instead, Ripple’s leadership chose to continue building its payment infrastructure and pursued strategic partnerships worldwide. Over the years, Ripple formed relationships with banks and financial institutions across different continents, steadily growing its presence in the financial sector.
This resilience was later put to the test when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple in late 2020. The SEC alleged that the company had conducted unregistered securities offerings through the sale of XRP, Ripple’s native digital asset. The legal proceedings produced a period of uncertainty for both Ripple and the broader XRP ecosystem.
Rather than close the business, Ripple’s founders continued expanding global payment services and investing in blockchain-based settlement solutions, even as regulatory concerns and court actions mounted over the years.
Despite these challenges, Ripple pressed on, maintaining operations internationally and contesting the SEC’s charges in court. Several decisions in the case have since influenced regulatory discussions across the digital asset industry in the United States.
Diversification and a focus on transparencyToday, Ripple has diversified its business beyond cross-border payments. The company recently introduced RLUSD, a USD-backed stablecoin, and continues to support development on the XRP Ledger for various tokenization projects.
Chief Executive Brad Garlinghouse stated that Ripple remains committed to reinforcing XRP’s role in the ecosystem while also creating complementary financial products. He said Ripple’s substantial XRP holdings ensure that its long-term success remains tightly connected to the future of the asset and its network.
Ripple’s leadership has also addressed ongoing speculation. Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz has dismissed unfounded rumors of secret government partnerships or undisclosed catalysts, emphasizing that the company operates transparently and that its escrow system and commercial activities are publicly accessible.
Routine treasury activities, such as XRP escrow releases and internal wallet transfers, continue to attract attention but represent standard practices within Ripple’s operational strategy.
As one of the sector’s most prominent firms, Ripple now serves institutional clients worldwide and invests in a range of blockchain solutions, from payments to tokenization and stablecoins.
The company’s transformation from a startup that some advisers deemed “beyond saving” to a recognized global firm highlights the lasting impact of perseverance in the fast-evolving cryptocurrency industry.
Mini dictionary: Ripple, a US-based fintech company founded in 2012, develops blockchain-based solutions for real-time cross-border payments. Its native asset, XRP, serves as a bridge currency for international transactions on the XRP Ledger.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the company seriously considered closing after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued it in December 2020. He said he and co-founder Chris Larsen discussed distributing Ripple’s XRP holdings to shareholders on a pro rata basis and dissolving the business. Garlinghouse described that choice as the easier path against an agency with “infinite power and resources.”
Summary
Ripple considered dissolving and distributing XRP to shareholders before choosing to fight the SEC lawsuit. Garlinghouse said the company protected hundreds of jobs despite spending about $150 million on litigation. The case ended in 2025, while Ripple’s penalty and institutional sales restrictions remained in force. The company rejected the shutdown plan because it would have ended hundreds of jobs. Garlinghouse said Ripple chose to defend itself even though the result remained uncertain. “I’m glad in retrospect, but that was not obvious at the time,” he said during a talk at the University of Kansas School of Business. He estimated that Ripple spent about $150 million on the legal fight. A Wu Blockchain post shared the remarks on July 12, bringing new attention to Ripple’s internal response during the lawsuit’s earliest months.
Ripple CEO Says Company Considered Shutting Down After 2020 SEC Lawsuit
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the company seriously considered shutting down after the U.S. SEC sued it in 2020. He said Ripple could have distributed its XRP holdings to shareholders and told the SEC it… pic.twitter.com/8xuSRIwdyI
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 12, 2026 The case changed how Ripple could sell XRP The SEC accused Ripple, Garlinghouse and Larsen of conducting unregistered securities sales through XRP. The agency said Ripple had raised more than $1.3 billion. The lawsuit placed pressure on the company’s U.S. business, partnerships and access to institutional clients. It also created years of uncertainty over how federal securities law applied to XRP transactions.
Garlinghouse also said he met SEC officials four times between 2017 and 2019 without a lawyer. He said officials never warned him that XRP could be treated as a security, which affected Ripple’s decision to challenge the case. Judge Analisa Torres issued a split ruling in July 2023. She found that Ripple’s programmatic XRP sales on public exchanges did not amount to securities transactions. However, she ruled that some direct sales to institutional buyers broke securities laws. The court later ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty and barred it from repeating unregistered institutional sales.
Appeals ended, but the final judgment remained Ripple and the SEC tried to settle the remaining dispute in 2025. Their proposal would have reduced the penalty to $50 million and removed the injunction. Judge Torres rejected the request because the court had already entered a final judgment. Both sides then dropped their appeals, and the Second Circuit closed the case on August 22, 2025.
A crypto.news review of the case said the end of the appeals did not erase the original judgment. Ripple still faced the $125 million penalty and the permanent injunction tied to future institutional XRP sales. Exchange-based XRP trading received clearer treatment under the 2023 ruling, but the decision did not create a single federal rule for every digital asset transaction.
Ripple expands while U.S. rules remain unfinished Ripple continued to expand after the lawsuit. Recent crypto.news coverage reported that the company secured a full Markets in Crypto-Assets license in Luxembourg. The approval allows Ripple to offer regulated crypto services across the European Economic Area. That gives the company a clearer operating framework in Europe than it currently has in the United States. Crypto.news also reported that Ripple’s European approval arrived as U.S. legal clarity remained tied to federal legislation and the treatment of digital assets.
U.S. lawmakers continue to debate market structure rules that could define when digital assets fall under securities or commodities oversight. For Ripple, the near-shutdown disclosure shows how enforcement pressure shaped its strategy and spending for several years. The company survived the case, kept its workforce and expanded abroad, while some limits from the final judgment remain active.
LendProtocol is a fixed-rate lending platform built on the XRP Ledger that allows XRP and RLUSD holders to earn 12% APR with daily interest payouts. Unlike variable-rate DeFi protocols, LendProtocol offers a predictable, fixed return with no lock-up periods and no exposure to lending risk for depositors.
Table of Contents
What Is LendProtocol?Why Does XRP Need a Lending Platform?How Does LendProtocol Work?Key Features at a GlanceWho Are the Borrowers?Is LendProtocol the Same as Ripple’s XLS-66 Protocol?How Is LendProtocol Secured?Bottom LineFrequently Asked Questions LendProtocol is a CeFi (centralized finance) platform for XRP lending and RLUSD lending, connecting depositors with overcollateralized borrowers. Depositors earn a fixed 12% APR, paid daily, while borrowers post 120% collateral to access XRP or RLUSD liquidity. LendProtocol sits in between as the risk-bearer: if a borrower defaults, the platform absorbs the loss, not the lender.
That last point is the product’s core differentiator. Most DeFi lending platforms distribute default risk across all depositors. LendProtocol does not.
Why Does XRP Need a Lending Platform? XRP cannot be staked. The XRP Ledger runs on Federated Byzantine Agreement (fBFT) consensus — not Proof-of-Stake — so there is no protocol-level reward for holding XRP. Ethereum holders stake for yield. Solana holders stake for yield. XRP holders, before LendProtocol, were left with centralized exchange savings products or simply holding idle capital.
LendProtocol fills that gap with a fixed-rate, collateral-backed lending product. No bridging to other networks, no variable rates, no lock-up.
How Does LendProtocol Work? The mechanics are straightforward:
A lender deposits XRP or RLUSD into LendProtocol. The platform matches those funds with a borrower. The borrower posts overcollateralized collateral — 120% of the loan value — in accepted assets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, RLUSD, or USDT). The loan is issued at 12.7% APR; the lender earns 12% APR. The 0.7% spread is platform revenue. Interest accrues daily and compounds — a stated 12% APR becomes approximately 12.75% effective annual yield through daily compounding (where each day’s interest is added to the principal before the next day’s interest is calculated). If the borrower repays: principal and interest go back to the lender. If the borrower defaults: LendProtocol absorbs the loss. The lender’s principal is not at risk from borrower defaults. That is the explicit platform guarantee.
Key Features at a Glance Fixed 12% APR on XRP and RLUSD deposits Daily compounding — ~12.75% effective annual yield No lock-up — withdraw at any time Platform assumes all lending risk — depositors are not exposed to defaults Overcollateralized loans — borrowers post 120% collateral Cold storage for the majority of deposited assets AES-256 GCM encryption for data at rest 2FA required on all accounts RLUSD support — earn 12% APR on Ripple’s USD stablecoin 13,713+ active lenders on the platform 743 million XRP lent to date Who Are the Borrowers? Borrowers on LendProtocol are individuals and institutions who want liquidity without selling their crypto holdings. A trader holding BTC, for example, can post it as collateral and borrow RLUSD for operational expenses — keeping their BTC position intact.
Borrowers pay 12.7% APR on the loan and must post collateral worth at least 120% of the borrowed amount. Accepted collateral: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, RLUSD, and USDT. Collateral is returned in full upon repayment.
The 0.7% spread between the borrower rate (12.7%) and the lender rate (12%) is LendProtocol’s operating revenue, used to cover risk management, infrastructure, and platform operations.
Is LendProtocol the Same as Ripple’s XLS-66 Protocol? No. This is worth stating clearly.
LendProtocol is a consumer CeFi product built on the XRP Ledger. It is not an implementation of XLS-66, the native lending standard developed by Ripple and the XRPL community. The two share the same underlying blockchain, but they are separate products with different risk models, borrower types, and rate structures.
LendProtocol XRPL Native Lending (XLS-66) Type Consumer CeFi platform Open blockchain protocol Developer LendProtocol team Ripple / XRPL community Collateral model 120% overcollateralized Uncollateralized (off-chain underwriting) Rates Fixed 12% / 12.7% Negotiated per vault Website lendprotocol.io xrpl.org LendProtocol uses the XRP Ledger as its settlement and custody layer. It is built on top of it, not as part of it.
How Is LendProtocol Secured? Cold storage: The majority of deposited assets are held offline, keeping them inaccessible to remote attacks. Only the liquidity needed for operational withdrawals is held in hot wallets.
AES-256 GCM encryption: All data at rest is encrypted with AES-256 GCM, the same standard used by banks and government institutions.
Two-Factor Authentication: 2FA is required on all accounts without exception.
Bottom Line For XRP holders, the core problem is simple: XRP produces no yield on its own. LendProtocol offers the most direct solution currently available on the XRP Ledger — a fixed 12% APR, paid daily, with no lock-up and no depositor exposure to default risk. RLUSD holders get the same rate without XRP price exposure, which makes it an option for more conservative investors and treasury operations.
The trade-off is centralization. LendProtocol is a CeFi platform. Users trust the operator’s risk management and security infrastructure rather than an open smart contract. For some investors, that is a feature; for others, it is a limitation. The product numbers — 13,713+ lenders, 743 million XRP lent — suggest meaningful traction either way.
Learn more or start earning at lendprotocol.io.
Frequently Asked Questions What is LendProtocol?
LendProtocol is a fixed-rate CeFi lending platform built on the XRP Ledger, offering 12% APR on XRP and RLUSD deposits with daily payouts, no lock-up, and platform-guaranteed protection of depositor capital. As of 2026, LendProtocol has 13,713+ active lenders and 743 million XRP lent on the platform.
Is LendProtocol safe?
LendProtocol uses cold storage for the majority of assets, AES-256 GCM encryption, and mandatory 2FA on all accounts. Crucially, LendProtocol assumes all default risk — if a borrower fails to repay, the platform absorbs the loss rather than distributing it to depositors. That said, LendProtocol is a CeFi platform, meaning users trust a centralized operator rather than an autonomous smart contract. Prospective depositors should weigh that structure against their own risk tolerance.
How does LendProtocol generate 12% APR?
LendProtocol lends depositor funds to overcollateralized borrowers at 12.7% APR. Lenders receive 12% of that rate as yield; the remaining 0.7% covers platform operations. Borrowers must post 120% of the loan value in accepted collateral (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, RLUSD, or USDT), which provides a buffer against price volatility and supports the platform’s ability to cover losses in the event of default.
Is LendProtocol the same as Ripple’s Lending Protocol?
No. LendProtocol is a separate, independent consumer product that happens to be built on the XRP Ledger. Ripple’s XLS-66 is a native lending standard at the blockchain-protocol level — designed for institutional, credentialed borrowers with uncollateralized loans and negotiated rates. LendProtocol operates as a CeFi platform above that layer, targeting retail and institutional depositors with fixed rates and overcollateralized lending.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Some of the most bullish cases envisioned a massive run toward $6 or even beyond.
There’s no need to sugarcoat this article, as it’s simply time for fun, speculation, and price predictions from some of the most widely used and popular artificial intelligence tools out there.
Although they will give their own reasons why they think XRP can go toward $6 and even above that (in some cases), history has shown that the final results are oftentimes quite different from what logic dictates.
Realistic Scenarios We will separate the different forecasts into more realistic sessions and the one from below, which gave wild answers. ChatGPT’s latest version outlined $2.50 as a realistic peak for XRP this year. After all, 2026 has been quite brutal for the crypto market, and Ripple’s token is no exception. It continues to trade well in the red on a YTD scale, having dipped toward $1.00 on a couple of occasions for the first time since late 2024.
“The $2.50 scenario would require XRP to recover alongside the broader market, retain institutional interest, and benefit from Ripple’s expanding regulatory footprint,” said OpenAI’s solution. It added that the company behind the asset recently received full MiCA authorization in Europe, which could serve as a major boost.
Interestingly, Grok and Perplexity shared similar opinions. Both provided larger ranges, but the upper boundary was at $2.50. However, Perplexity believes the lower target is at $1.50, while Grok said it’s around $1.80.
However, Gemini was a lot less bullish on the asset. It noted that a “pragmatic view” puts the token at around $1.40 to $1.65 this year, even though it admitted that XRP has shown resilience in the first half of 2026 despite inflation fears, a hawkish Fed, and growing uncertainty.
Bull Cases When it came to letting their imagination run wild and provide some wildly bullish targets for XRP this year, none of the AIs we asked disappointed. Once again, Grok and Perplexity worked in tandem, indicating that the cross-border token is somehow capable of breaking its 2025 all-time high of $3.65 and setting a new one at around $5.00.
You may also like: XRP Stalls at $1.10: Could Quiet On-Chain Activity Be the Calm Before a Bigger Move? XRP’s On-Chain Data Flashes Warning While Sellers Continue to Dominate Japanese Firms Are Boosting BTC and XRP Holdings – SBI VC Trade Reveals Why Both noted that this would be probable if the CLARITY Act passes in the US, global uncertainty diminishes, and the broader crypto market rebounds significantly from the current levels.
Gemini’s range was quite wide, as its bull case scenario sees XRP peaking somewhere between $2.75 and $6.00. However, it admitted that such a far-fetched target at the moment hinges on Washington, the ETF inflows, investor risk tolerance, and other factors.
ChatGPT was a bit more skeptical, highlighting $4.50 as the highest possible target for XRP even in its most bullish scenario. It would require a “genuine altcoin season, strong and sustained ETF demand, Bitcoin remaining bullish, and convincing evidence that XRPL activity and Ripple’s payments infrastructure are creating demand for XRP itself.”
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Markus Infanger, an executive at Ripple, will speak at a major XRP event.
Infanger, who is RippleX's senior vice president (SVP), is expected to participate in XRP Seoul 2026, an event hosted by XRP Ledger Korea scheduled for October 3 during KBW (Korea Blockchain Week). This event connects XRP holders, builders, and ecosystem projects worldwide.
The official XRP Seoul 2026 X account announced that Infanger will be among the featured speakers at the event. This follows an earlier announcement in June that Ripple president Monica Long would be among the key speakers at the event.
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We're honored to welcome @markusinfanger, SVP of @RippleXDev
Markus oversees Ripple's contributions to XRPL, from product development to partnerships and developer ecosystem growth.
Want to take the stage with the leaders shaping XRPL's future? Join XRP Seoul 2026 as a speaker… pic.twitter.com/x3STtZeVwc
— XRP Seoul 2026 🇰🇷 (@XRPSEOUL) July 12, 2026 In making the announcement, the XRP Seoul 2026 team stated it was "honored to welcome" Infanger, highlighting his leadership role in Ripple's contributions to the XRP Ledger.
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As SVP of RippleX, Infanger oversees Ripple's work on the XRP Ledger, including product development, partnerships, and growing the developer ecosystem. He is therefore well-positioned to discuss upcoming product developments, including collaborations and advancements in the developer ecosystem.
Korea has long been one of XRP's most active speculative markets, with expectations rising in the XRP community ahead of the event. Currently, XRP is the second most traded asset by volume on Upbit Korea, South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange in terms of both trading volume and customer base.
Momentum buildsRipple and the XRP Ledger are seeing increased momentum, which is why the timing of the upcoming event matters.
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Ripple recently received authorization of its Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) license from Luxembourg's Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). The authorization confirms Ripple as fully MiCA-compliant, with its solutions underpinned by XRP and RLUSD made available to financial institutions, corporates, and businesses across all 30 countries of the European Economic Area.
The XRP Ledger surpassed 1,000,000 agentic payments via x402 in the past week. The XRPL AI Hub represents a comprehensive new ecosystem platform for builders, users, and enthusiasts, providing a boost for the agentic economy.
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
XRP continues to trade without a clear fundamental catalyst, still moving sideways near $1.10. At the time of writing, XRP was up 1.22% in the last 24 hours to $1.11 but down 4.93% in the last seven days.
Traders are now watching if XRP's quiet range is setting up a larger breakout; a close above the daily MA 50 at $1.16 will be watched ahead of the daily MA 200 at $1.45. A move above $1.40 would be the first stronger sign that XRP might be breaking out of its broader range.
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Buyers continue to defend the $1.00–$1.05 range, highlighting it as support in case price declines.
Short-term golden cross appearsA golden cross signal has appeared on the XRP four-hour chart, with the timing attracting attention as the token continues to trade in a range, with traders waiting for a catalyst to drive the next move.
XRP/USD 4-Hour Chart, Image By TradingViewThe MA 50 has crossed above the MA 200, indicating a golden cross. The short-term signal comes as XRP Ledger activity hits rare lows. Citing active addresses and network growth, Santiment noted that the XRP Ledger has just seen one of its lowest on-chain days in recent memory.
✍️ TL;DR: XRP Ledger activity hits rare lows as traders wait for catalyst
📊 Metrics Used: Active Addresses, Network Growth
🔗 Live Chart: https://t.co/PU1PeLUccm
📊 XRP Ledger activity has gone unusually quiet while price keeps ranging just below $1.10. The network just saw… pic.twitter.com/AOeavbtxEU
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) July 11, 2026 According to Santiment, XRP Ledger activity has gone unusually quiet as price stayed in a range below $1.10. The XRPL network just saw only 25,350 active wallets, its 2nd-lowest day of 2026, while new wallet creation fell to 2,130, the lowest since November 2024.
After late June saw a rise in dip-buying, Santiment indicated that traders might have now resorted to waiting for a real catalyst before buying again due to a small bounce.
Ripple’s XRP has shown signs of stabilization after its prolonged downtrend, with buyers successfully defending a key support region and triggering a short-term market structure shift. Although the broader trend remains bearish, the recent price action suggests that selling pressure is weakening, and the market may be preparing for a larger recovery attempt if current support levels continue to hold.
XRP Price Analysis: The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, XRP remains inside a broader descending channel and continues to trade below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are both trending lower and maintaining the long-term bearish structure.
However, the recent decline toward the $1.02-$1.06 support zone appears to have attracted significant demand. This region aligns with a previous liquidity sweep below the April lows, where the market briefly traded beneath support before quickly recovering. Since then, the asset has established a higher low and has begun building a base above this demand area.
The price recently bounced from the support zone and is now attempting to reclaim the horizontal resistance region around $1.22-$1.28. This area is particularly important because it also coincides with the descending 100-day moving average and the upper boundary of the broader bearish structure.
A successful reclaim of the $1.22-$1.28 resistance zone would strengthen the recovery scenario and potentially open the path toward the major supply area near $1.55. Until that breakout occurs, the broader trend remains corrective within a larger downtrend.
XRP/USDT 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour chart presents a more constructive outlook. Following the sweep of liquidity below the $1.02-$1.06 support region, XRP formed a market structure shift (MSS), marking the first indication that sellers were losing control of the short-term trend.
The subsequent rally produced a change of character (ChoCh) as the price broke above a previous lower high and challenged the descending trendline that has capped rallies since mid-June. Although the token initially faced rejection near trendline resistance around $1.16-$1.18, the pullback has remained relatively shallow, and buyers continue defending the former breakout zone.
Importantly, the market has not returned to the lows despite the rejection, suggesting that demand remains active beneath current prices. As long as XRP holds above the $1.03-$1.06 support area, the bullish structure established after the liquidity sweep remains intact.
The key level to monitor now is the descending trendline and the $1.15-$1.18 resistance area. A decisive breakout above this region would confirm a higher-high formation and could accelerate momentum toward the larger daily resistance zone between $1.22 and $1.28.
Conversely, failure to break the trendline could lead to additional consolidation between support and resistance before a larger directional move develops.
Overall, the recent price action favors gradual recovery, but XRP still needs to reclaim the trendline resistance and the $1.22-$1.28 supply zone before a broader bullish reversal can be confirmed.
XRP ETFs Break Four-Day Outflow StreakSpot $XRP ETFs recorded a modest net inflow of around $107,000 on Friday, July 10, breaking a four-consecutive-day run of outflows. While the figure is small in absolute terms, it marks the first positive daily flow the products had seen in nearly a week.
Despite the brief recovery, the funds remain in negative territory for the month. The latest withdrawals had pushed cumulative flows into a net outflow of $2.61 million for July 2026. That reversal comes after a strong finish to June, when the funds pulled in $15.34 million on June 29, building on an equally impressive $15.63 million net inflow recorded just days prior on June 26.
Three-Month Inflow Run Now Under PressureThe July softness interrupts what had been a sustained period of investor appetite for the regulated products. According to data from Yahoo Finance, XRP ETFs ended April with roughly $82 million in net inflows, marking the funds' best month since the late-2025 launch period, a reverse of what happened in March, which ended with $31 million in outflows. May then topped that, with May's inflow of $118.29 million surpassing April's $81.59 million to become the strongest month of 2026.
The broader picture for the products remains constructive. Cumulative net inflows across all approved XRP spot ETFs continue to hover around a healthy $1.40 billion mark. As of July 11, 2026, seven XRP spot ETFs are trading in the United States with combined assets under management of around $1 billion and 964.5 million XRP tokens locked.
The leading products include the Bitwise XRP ETF (1XRP) with around $245.3 million in assets, followed by the Canary XRP ETF with approximately $225.9 million and the Franklin XRP ETF with about $167.9 million. Whether the July 10 inflow signals a genuine turn or merely a brief pause in the current negative run remains to be seen, but the month's performance will be closely watched given the three-month positive streak that preceded it.
Sources:
U.Today: XRP ETFs Log One of Biggest Outflows of 2026
Yahoo Finance: XRP ETFs Snap Longest Inflow Streak of 2026
Coinpedia: Spot XRP ETFs Record Largest Outflow Since March
XRP continued to trade without clear directional momentum, staying near $1.10 despite minor intraday gains. Over the past 24 hours, XRP rose 1.22% to $1.11, but this move was not enough to offset the 4.93% decline registered over the last week.
XRP price holds in tight range as support levels defendedMarket participants have kept a close eye on XRP, as the cryptocurrency held a largely sideways pattern in recent sessions. At present, traders are monitoring whether the quiet trading activity could lead to a breakout, with the daily 50-day moving average (MA 50) at $1.16 seen as an initial target level. A push above $1.16 could attract more attention toward the daily 200-day moving average (MA 200) near $1.45.
Analysts noted that a move above $1.40 would serve as a more convincing signal of a possible breakout from XRP’s wider trading range. In recent days, buyers have frequently shown a willingness to defend support levels in the $1.00–$1.05 zone. These defense actions signal that traders remain cautious but alert to further dips.
Golden cross forms amid weak XRP Ledger activityOn the technical front, XRP displayed a golden cross on the four-hour chart, with the 50-period moving average climbing above the 200-period moving average. This formation drew attention as a potential bullish signal, particularly as the token continues to lack fundamental catalysts.
Despite the appearance of this bullish technical pattern, on-chain activity on the XRP Ledger fell sharply. Blockchain analytics platform Santiment reported that the network recorded just 25,350 active wallets in the recent session, marking the second-lowest daily count in 2026. In addition, new wallet creation totaled only 2,130, the lowest number since November 2024.
Mini dictionary: Santiment is a blockchain analytics company providing on-chain and social data analytics for cryptocurrencies, including activity levels, sentiment, and key wallet metrics.
Santiment observed that while late June experienced a surge in dip-buying activity, traders now appeared to be turning cautious, waiting for a significant development before making further large-scale purchases. The subdued activity on the XRP Ledger coincided with price action remaining below the $1.10 threshold for much of this period.
MetricCurrent LevelTime FrameNotable PointActive wallets25,350Recent session2nd-lowest in 2026New wallet creation2,130Recent sessionLowest since Nov 2024Price support$1.00–$1.05Current rangeFrequently defendedBreakout level$1.40TargetSign of strong momentumXRP’s golden cross on lower timeframes has attracted trader interest, but analysts remain watchful for a decisive catalyst, noting that network activity and new wallet creation are both running at multi-year lows.
The broader XRP community is now watching key price levels and monitoring on-chain trends for signs that current sideways trading could give way to a pronounced breakout in either direction. Until a new catalyst emerges, volatility may stay subdued and range-bound trading is likely to persist.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
In the last week of June, XRP printed its weakest price since late 2024, briefly touching $1.01 before stabilizing in the $1.05 to $1.13 range where it has traded through early July. The token is down more than 25% for the year and roughly 65% below the $3.65 cycle high it set in July 2025. On the same June days that the chart broke down, tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger crossed $3.5 billion, more than triple the level at which they started the year, spot XRP exchange-traded funds extended a net inflow streak that would reach eight consecutive weeks, and Ripple stood weeks away from full European authorization under MiCA.
Summary
Ripple has delivered record institutional growth in 2026, but XRP remains more than 25% lower this year and near multi-year lows. The article examines both sides of the debate: whether Ripple’s expanding infrastructure will eventually lift XRP or whether the company and token have permanently diverged. Upcoming CLARITY Act votes, ETF flows, XRPL upgrades, and institutional adoption could determine whether the gap between Ripple and XRP finally closes. That is the whole story in one paragraph, and it is genuinely strange. By any operational measure, the 12 months behind Ripple are the most productive in the company’s history: a settled SEC case, launched ETFs, a $1.25 billion prime brokerage acquisition, membership in the clearing infrastructure of American equities, a stablecoin with $18 billion in quarterly transfer volume, and regulatory licenses stacking up on three continents.
By the only measure most holders care about, the same 12 months are the worst since the 2022 bear market. The gap between what Ripple built and what XRP is worth has never been wider, and how that gap closes, upward through the price or downward through the narrative, is now the central question hanging over the fourth largest ecosystem in crypto.
This feature lays out both sides honestly: the case that the infrastructure eventually drags the token up, and the case that the token and the company have simply decoupled, with the price telling the truer story.
The year Ripple built: an inventory It helps to see the accumulation in one place, because no single item explains the disconnect. The pattern does.
Legal closure came first. The SEC’s enforcement case against Ripple, filed in December 2020, formally concluded in 2025 with a financial settlement, ending the overhang that had defined the token’s American existence for half a decade and building on the 2023 court finding that programmatic exchange sales of XRP were not securities transactions.
Then distribution. Spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 across 5 providers and have accumulated roughly $1.49 billion in cumulative net inflows since. May 2026 was the strongest month of the year with $118 million, including a record $60.5 million week.
The streak ran 8 consecutive weeks into July, as crypto.news reported, before showing its first daily pauses, and assets under management sit near $1.05 billion, about 1.5% of the token’s market capitalization, led by Bitwise at $331 million, Canary at $265 million, and Franklin at $262 million.
Then market plumbing. Ripple closed its acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road in October 2025 and rebranded it Ripple Prime. On March 2, 2026, Ripple Prime joined the participant directory of the National Securities Clearing Corporation, placing an XRP-linked institution inside the DTCC complex that clears the bulk of American equity trading and safeguards roughly $100 trillion in assets. DTCC has since named Ripple Prime to the working group of more than 50 firms shaping its tokenization service for Russell 1000 stocks, ETFs, and Treasuries, scheduled for October 2026.
Then the ledger itself. XRPL tokenized assets grew from $991 million on January 1 to $3.5 billion by midsummer. In early May, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Ondo Finance, and Ripple completed the first cross-border tokenized US Treasury redemption on the XRPL, settling in under 5 seconds. Daily transactions hit 3 million on March 15, roughly three times mid-2025 averages.
A protocol amendment from XRPL version 3.1.0 that would enable fixed-term lending through Single Asset Vaults is under validator vote, and support has been climbing toward the 80% supermajority it needs, a governance process crypto.news has tracked as it approaches the threshold.
Then the stablecoin. RLUSD reached a $1.72 billion market capitalization in under a year, moved more than $18 billion in the first quarter alone, and Ripple hedged the strategy in July by joining Open USD, the consortium dollar token backed by Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and more than 140 other companies.
Then the licenses. A full Electronic Money Institution approval from Luxembourg in February, UK Financial Conduct Authority permissions in January, and the full MiCA Crypto-Asset Service Provider license on July 6 that opened all 30 countries of the European Economic Area, arriving days after the transition deadline locked unlicensed competitors out of the bloc.
Any one of these, delivered into the 2024 market, would have produced a rally measured in double digits. Delivered into 2026, the entire list produced a chart that goes down and to the right.
The year XRP traded: an autopsy The price ledger is shorter and harsher. XRP closed 2025 near $1.90 after the July peak at $3.65, rallied to about $2.40 in the new year, then spent 2026 in decline: a sharp February selloff that prompted Standard Chartered to cut its year-end target from $8 to $2.80, a spring of lower highs between $1.28 and $1.50, a June that opened near $1.30 and closed near $1.04, and a July that has been a daily fight to defend the $1 line.
The token trades below every major moving average, with the 20-day near $1.11, the 50-day near $1.20, and the 200-day near $1.52. Relative strength readings in the low 30s mark the deepest oversold territory of the cycle.
Two facts about the decline matter for interpreting it. First, it was market-wide. Bitcoin fell from above $100,000 to below $62,000, briefly touching $58,000. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB fell comparably or worse; total crypto market capitalization shed $2.3 trillion over 8 weeks, and digital assets posted a third consecutive losing quarter, the longest streak since 2022, as institutional capital rotated toward AI equities. Everything outside Bitcoin and Ethereum lost roughly 23% in 6 months. XRP’s beta to that drawdown was high, as it always is, because the token falls harder than Bitcoin when sentiment turns.
Second, and more uncomfortable for the bull case, none of the good news interrupted it. The full MiCA license produced a 3% weekly decline around the preliminary approval and indifference at the final one. The DTCC milestone passed without a candle. The Treasury redemption pilot with JPMorgan, arguably the most institutionally significant event in XRPL history, is invisible on the chart.
The one catalyst the market visibly responds to is legislative: the token jumped 4.5% within an hour of the CLARITY Act clearing committee on May 14, and it sagged when the July 4 signing target slipped, price action crypto.news examined as the delay sank in. The market has, in effect, told everyone what it is waiting for, and it is not another license.
What the forecasters did with the same facts The professional forecasting record around XRP in 2026 is itself evidence of the disconnect, because analysts looking at identical data have produced the widest dispersion of targets for any large-cap asset.
Standard Chartered entered the year at $8 for 2026 and cut to $2.80 in February after the selloff, a 65% downgrade in a single revision, while explicitly leaving its 2030 target untouched at $28. The bank’s stated logic was that regulatory clarity, institutional involvement, and new investment products justify higher long-term valuations, but near-term price action would remain correlated with the broad crypto market. That is the lag thesis and the beta thesis coexisting in one research note.
Bitwise carries a $4.94 year-end forecast. JPMorgan’s contribution is conditional rather than directional: $4 to $8.4 billion of first-year ETF inflows if the CLARITY Act passes, with no comparable estimate under failure. Algorithmic models cluster far lower, in the $1.70 to $2 band, essentially extrapolating the chart. The professional consensus for year-end sits above $2, which would require a 77% rally from current levels in under 6 months, a move the asset has produced before but only during regime changes in sentiment.
Forecast dispersion this wide is unusual for an asset of this size, and it maps precisely onto the two readings of the disconnect. Analysts weighting the infrastructure see multiples of the current price; models weighting the tape see the current price as fair. When the same inputs produce a $1.70 answer and a $28 answer depending on the discount rate applied to institutional adoption, the market is not confused. It is unpriced, waiting on the one variable, classification, that neither the company nor the chart can supply.
The bear reading: the token and the company are different assets The uncomfortable thesis deserves its full strength. Ripple’s success and XRP’s value are linked by a mechanism, and the mechanism is thin.
Ripple the company earns revenue from payments, custody, prime brokerage, and stablecoin float. Almost none of that revenue requires the XRP price to be anything in particular. The company’s own announcements make the point unintentionally: the MiCA license release mentions XRP essentially once, in the boilerplate.
Ripple Payments has moved more than $100 billion across 60-plus markets, but most of that volume settles in fiat or RLUSD, and where it does route through the XRP Ledger, the burned fee per transaction is a fraction of a cent. 3 million daily transactions at those rates destroys token supply at a pace measured in rounding errors. The stablecoin strategy, on this reading, actively competes with the bridge-asset story that once justified the token: every corridor that settles in RLUSD is a corridor that does not need XRP volatility risk.
Supply mechanics deepen the skepticism, and they deserve their own accounting. Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP from escrow every month under a schedule set in 2017, relocking the majority into new escrow contracts while a smaller portion enters circulation through sales and ecosystem distributions. The market has watched this metronome for years, and its psychological weight exceeds its mechanical weight: even in months when net new supply is modest, the release event itself gives traders a recurring reason to expect selling, and expectations of supply function like supply. Set the monthly release against the demand side and the imbalance is stark. The entire ETF complex has absorbed roughly $1.49 billion over 8 months, an average of around $6 million of daily buying, in a token that trades north of $1.4 billion in daily volume.
Institutional flows at that scale can support a floor; they cannot fight a distribution schedule and a bear market simultaneously. The bear case does not need Ripple to fail. It needs only for the demand mechanisms to keep growing slower than the supply mechanisms, which is a fair description of every month of 2026 so far.
There is also the exchange migration to consider from the skeptical side. Tokens leaving exchanges for ETF custody are commonly read as bullish scarcity, but a share of that movement is simply the same speculative holders changing wrappers, retail selling spot that funds buy into trusts, with no net new demand created. The flow data cannot distinguish conviction from repackaging, which is why the bears discount it. The comparison Brad Garlinghouse himself invited when he attacked Michael Saylor’s leverage model cuts both ways, as crypto.news observed: both Strategy and Ripple sit atop enormous token treasuries whose value depends on a market they are simultaneously supplying.
On this view, the 2026 chart is not a mispricing. It is the market correctly concluding that owning XRP is not owning Ripple, that the institutional build-out accrues to Ripple’s private shareholders, and that the token’s fair value is whatever speculative demand plus modest utility demand will bear in a risk-off tape. The disconnect is not a gap waiting to close. It is the honest spread between an equity story and a token story that were never the same story.
The bull reading: infrastructure is demand with a lag The counterargument does not deny any of that. It argues the causality has a delay measured in years, and that 2026 is the trough of the lag, not the verdict.
Start with the demand channels that did not exist 18 months ago. ETFs holding $1.05 billion sound small against a $69 billion market cap until you note the direction and the constraint: 8 straight weeks of net inflows through the worst quarter since 2022, from a buyer base that is still legally capped. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and most insurance portfolios cannot allocate to an unclassified asset at all.
That is precisely the constraint the CLARITY Act removes by making XRP a digital commodity under CFTC oversight, and it is why JPMorgan and Standard Chartered independently project $4 to $8.4 billion in first-year inflows under passage, a 5- to 8-fold expansion of the current ETF base. The bill’s merged draft is due the week of July 13, with floor action targeted a week later. The single largest catalyst in the token’s history has a date range attached to it.
Second, the utility story is finally measurable instead of theoretical. Tokenized assets tripling to $3.5 billion, a functioning institutional redemption pilot with the largest bank in America, a lending protocol approaching validator approval, and RLUSD volume in the tens of billions are all activity that lives on the ledger whose native asset is XRP.
The fee-burn mechanism is tiny per transaction, but the investment case was never fee burn; it is that reserve requirements, liquidity provisioning, and settlement paths on a busy institutional ledger create structural demand for the asset that denominates it. Japan already offers the proof of concept, where SBI’s remittance corridors made the country the one place XRP is used at scale in production, a story crypto.news has documented, and Europe post-MiCA is the first market since Japan where Ripple holds the full regulatory stack to attempt a repeat.
Third, the on-chain footprint of conviction is visible even at the lows. Whale accumulation ran through the spring, with roughly 450 million XRP moving through Binance in a 10-day stretch in March, wallet creation hit a 3-month high near 5,000 per day in late June, and large-holder balances rose while retail sentiment collapsed. Someone with size is treating $1 as a level to buy, and the historical pattern in this asset is that accumulation phases at multi-month lows precede the violent repricings the token is famous for. July, for what it is worth, is historically XRP’s strongest month, averaging around 10% gains, though seasonality in a fear-gripped market deserves limited weight.
The bull synthesis: the company spent 2026 building the pipes, the law that fills them sits 3 weeks from a vote, and the price is a coiled spring compressed by macro conditions that have nothing to do with Ripple. Standard Chartered, even after cutting its 2026 target to $2.80, left its 2030 target at $28, which is the lag thesis expressed as a forecast.
The map of the battlefield at $1 For traders, the disconnect compresses into a few price zones that both camps agree on even while disagreeing about everything else.
Support is a dense band between $1.00 and $1.06, where a thick concentration of historical buying has absorbed every test since late June, including seven separate probes of the $1.04 to $1.06 area. Beneath it, the map goes dark: a decisive daily close below $1 opens territory the token has not traded since 2024, with the next meaningful demand zone estimated between $0.80 and $0.90. The bounce attempts of early July have built a sequence of higher lows above $1.03, and the immediate breakout zone sits at $1.056 to $1.066, where a surge of volume, at one point 1,400% above the hourly average, marked the strongest buying of the month.
Resistance begins where the moving averages live. The 20-day average near $1.11 and the descending channel midline have capped every rally attempt; above that, $1.18 to $1.20 is the zone that separates a technical bounce from a trend change, since it contains the 50-day average and the highs of the last failed breakout. A move through $1.20 would be the first structural repair of the year. The level that matters for the larger argument is further up: analysts broadly treat $1.65 as the line above which the downtrend that began at $3.65 would formally be broken.
The holder structure beneath those levels is where the two theses interact most directly. Exchange balances have been falling as tokens migrate to ETF custodians and cold storage, whale addresses have grown through the decline, and the retail cohort, measured by funding rates and sentiment indexes reading extreme fear, is maximally absent.
That configuration, shrinking liquid supply against a depressed price, is the classic setup for violent moves in both directions: thin order books amplify whatever catalyst arrives. A CLARITY passage into this structure would meet little overhead supply until the mid-$1.20s. A failure into this structure would find equally little bid support below $1. The market has arranged itself for an outsized reaction to a binary event, which is rational, because that is exactly what the calendar is offering.
What would actually settle the argument Disconnects resolve through evidence, and four specific markers will decide which reading was right.
The CLARITY floor vote before the August 7 recess is the binary. Passage activates the constrained buyer base and converts the classification question from risk to fact; failure removes the identified catalyst and hands the bear thesis another year of confirmation. Nothing else on this list matters as much.
XRPL settlement disclosures are the slow variable. Europe will produce client announcements through the fall; the tell is whether named institutions settle on the ledger or through RLUSD and fiat rails that bypass the token. Every disclosure is a data point for exactly the mechanism the two camps dispute.
ETF flow behavior around the $1 level tests the institutional bid. The first net outflow day arrived on June 30 as the quarter closed. If inflows resume through a flat tape, the allocation story survives the drawdown. If outflows follow the price down, the ETF base was momentum money wearing an institutional costume.
The lending amendment vote tests whether the ledger’s institutional roadmap ships. Validator support has been grinding toward the 80% threshold; activation would open uncollateralized fixed-term credit through Single Asset Vaults, the first XRPL primitive aimed squarely at the institutional DeFi demand the bull case requires.
One more marker sits outside the token entirely: Ripple’s own capital decisions. The company has explored an initial public offering intermittently, and hints have circulated that XRP holders might somehow participate in a listing. Nothing concrete has emerged, and nothing should be assumed, but the scenario clarifies the stakes of the disconnect better than any chart.
If Ripple lists, the market will finally price the company and the token side by side, in public, every trading day. Either the equity valuation validates the institutional story and drags attention back to the ledger that underpins it, or investors will buy the company and continue ignoring the token, at which point the decoupling thesis stops being a thesis and becomes a quote on two screens. The company has every incentive to make the token matter before that comparison goes live.
For holders, the practical takeaway is about position sizing against a calendar, not about conviction in either narrative. The next 26 days contain the merged CLARITY draft, a possible floor vote, the July escrow release, continuing ETF flow data, and the validator vote on the lending amendment. That is an unusual density of resolution for a single month. The disconnect between Ripple’s year and XRP’s year has been stable precisely because nothing forced the two stories to reconcile. The Senate schedule is about to force it.
The widest gap in crypto right now is not between any two tokens. It is between a company having its best year and a token having its worst, wearing the same three letters. Markets close gaps like this one eventually, and they are indifferent about the direction. 26 days of Senate calendar will supply the first, and probably decisive, piece of the answer.
On July 6, Luxembourg’s financial regulator, the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier, upgraded Ripple’s preliminary Crypto-Asset Service Provider authorization into a full license under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework. The approval means Ripple can passport regulated crypto services across all 30 countries of the European Economic Area, from Lisbon to Helsinki, under a single national authorization. Cassie Craddock, Ripple’s managing director for the UK and Europe, framed the moment plainly: the company enters the post-transitional MiCA era fully compliant and ready to scale.
Summary
Ripple secured a full MiCA license in Luxembourg, allowing it to offer regulated crypto services across the European Economic Area. While Europe has given Ripple regulatory certainty, XRP’s legal classification in the U.S. still depends on the CLARITY Act. The article explores whether Ripple’s expanding regulatory footprint can eventually translate into stronger XRP demand. Five days later, on the other side of the Atlantic, the legislation that would finally tell American regulators what XRP actually is remained stuck in the Senate. A merged draft of the CLARITY Act is expected the week of July 13, floor action is penciled in for the week of July 20, and the whole effort still needs roughly 7 Democratic votes it does not currently have. Galaxy Research has cut its odds of passage in 2026 to a coin flip.
That is the strange position Ripple occupies in the summer of 2026. A company born in San Francisco, hardened by a 4-year fight with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and lobbying harder than almost anyone for American crypto legislation, is now more comprehensively regulated in Europe than it has ever been at home. The Luxembourg license is not just a compliance milestone. It is a measuring stick for how far apart the two largest Western markets have drifted, and a live experiment in whether regulatory certainty actually converts into business, and eventually into token demand.
What Ripple actually won in Luxembourg The July 6 approval was the second half of a two-part regulatory build that Ripple has been assembling in the Grand Duchy for most of a year. The first half arrived on February 2, when the CSSF granted Ripple full approval as an Electronic Money Institution. The EMI license lets the company issue electronic money and run regulated fiat payment services across the European Union. It followed a preliminary EMI approval a month earlier and came shortly after Ripple picked up an EMI license and a cryptoasset registration from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, extending the same regulated posture to Britain.
The CASP license completes the picture on the crypto side. Under MiCA, a Crypto-Asset Service Provider authorization covers custody, exchange, transfer, and related services for cryptoassets. Ripple received preliminary CASP approval from the CSSF on June 23, then satisfied the remaining conditions in under 2 weeks, converting the in-principle nod into a full license just after MiCA’s transition period closed on July 1. As crypto.news reported, the timing put Ripple inside the licensed perimeter at the exact moment the perimeter became a hard wall.
The combination matters more than either license alone. With the EMI approval, European banks, fintechs, and corporates can move regulated fiat and e-money through Ripple. With the CASP approval, the same clients can move cryptoassets and stablecoin flows through the same provider under the same rulebook. Ripple Payments, the company’s cross-border settlement product, has processed more than $100 billion across more than 60 markets globally. The Luxembourg stack gives that product a clean legal wrapper in a bloc of roughly 450 million people, with one regulator to answer to and 30 countries to sell into.
Ripple says its global license count now exceeds 75 authorizations, registrations, and approvals, a portfolio that spans Singapore, Dubai, New York’s BitLicense regime, and now the heart of the EU. Few crypto-native companies carry anything comparable. That was a deliberate strategy long before MiCA existed: sell to banks, and you must look like something a bank compliance department can approve.
The graveyard on the other side of the deadline The value of a MiCA license is easiest to see in what happened to the companies that do not have one. The regulation’s transition period ended on July 1, 2026. From that date, any firm offering covered crypto services in the EEA without CASP authorization must limit or stop those services. The European Securities and Markets Authority added 57 newly approved firms to its register right after the deadline, bringing the total to around 300 authorized providers. Set that against the more than 1,200 firms that operated in Europe under the old patchwork of national regimes, and the scale of the cull becomes clear. By some counts, only around 210 of those incumbent companies completed the licensing process in time.
The casualty list includes names that would have seemed untouchable 2 years ago. Binance, the largest exchange in the world by volume, failed to secure authorization in time through its Greek application and has told customers in several European markets that services are suspended while it seeks approval elsewhere. Tether chose not to apply at all, citing objections to MiCA’s stablecoin requirements, and USDT has been delisted from European venues as a result. Hundreds of smaller firms now face a choice between merging with licensed competitors, shrinking to non-covered activities, or exiting the region entirely.
The passporting mechanism is what makes a single national license so valuable. Under MiCA, a firm authorized in one member state can offer covered crypto services throughout the EU and the wider EEA without seeking separate national approvals, the same single-market logic that has governed European banking and investment services for decades.
Before MiCA, a crypto company wanting continental coverage needed a patchwork of national registrations, each with its own rules, timelines, and supervisory quirks, and each revocable on its own schedule. After MiCA, the choice of home regulator became a strategic decision, because one supervisor now stands behind a firm’s entire European footprint. That concentration cuts both ways.
A company with a Luxembourg license answers to a regulator with a long institutional finance pedigree and a reputation for rigor, which reassures bank counterparties. It also means a single supervisory dispute could, in theory, imperil access to 30 markets at once. Firms accepted that trade because the alternative, 30 separate relationships, was worse.
Luxembourg, meanwhile, has become one of the main gateways for the firms that made it through. Coinbase won its MiCA license from the CSSF in June 2025, opened a physical hub in the country, and migrated its EU operations into a dedicated Luxembourg entity.
Standard Chartered received its authorization through the same regulator. B2C2 took the Luxembourg route for its European trading business. Ripple now joins that group, which turns the Grand Duchy into something like the institutional crypto capital of the EU, a jurisdiction that courted the industry with dedicated blockchain legislation and a regulator willing to process serious applications quickly.
For Ripple specifically, the competitive math is straightforward. Every payments client it pitches in Europe now faces a shrunken menu of fully licensed providers. The company spent years and considerable money building a compliance posture that most rivals treated as optional. MiCA just made it mandatory, and Ripple crossed the line while much of the field did not.
The license lands on top of an institutional build-out The Luxembourg approval did not arrive in isolation. It caps 12 months in which Ripple assembled more institutional infrastructure than in the previous decade combined, which is what makes the token’s indifference so striking and the license so strategically loaded.
Start with the prime brokerage. Ripple closed its $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road in October 2025, folding a multi-asset prime broker into the company and rebranding the operation as Ripple Prime. On March 2, 2026, Ripple Prime appeared in the participant directory of the National Securities Clearing Corporation, the DTCC subsidiary that clears the vast majority of American equity trades.
The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation processes transactions measured in the quadrillions of dollars annually and safeguards roughly $100 trillion in assets. Having XRP-linked infrastructure inside that machine is the kind of positioning that takes years to arrange and cannot be improvised later. DTCC has since named Ripple Prime to the industry working group of more than 50 firms shaping its tokenization service for Russell 1000 stocks, major ETFs, and US Treasuries, scheduled to launch in October 2026.
Then the ledger itself. Tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger grew from $991 million at the start of 2026 to roughly $3.5 billion by midsummer. In early May, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Ondo Finance, and Ripple completed the first cross-border tokenized US Treasury redemption on XRPL, clearing in under 5 seconds.
Daily transactions on the ledger hit 3 million on March 15, roughly triple the averages of mid-2025. RLUSD, the stablecoin at the center of Ripple’s settlement strategy, reached a market capitalization of $1.72 billion in under a year, with more than $18 billion in transfer volume in the first quarter of 2026 alone. And in July, Ripple joined Open USD, the consortium dollar stablecoin backed by Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and more than 140 other companies, hedging its own stablecoin bet with a seat at the industry table.
Every item on that list is the kind of development that, in a friendlier market, would have carried its own rally. Instead, each landed on a chart grinding lower, which is a useful reminder of how much of crypto pricing in 2026 is macro beta and how little is project-specific fundamentals. The relevance to the Luxembourg story is this: the license is not a standalone trophy. It is the regulatory layer of a stack that now includes clearing access, tokenization rails, a stablecoin, and a prime broker. Europe is where that full stack can operate legally today.
Meanwhile in Washington: a bill, a deadline, and seven missing votes The contrast with the United States is not subtle. The CLARITY Act, the market structure bill that would sort digital assets into commodity and security buckets and hand spot market oversight of digital commodities to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has traveled further than any crypto legislation in American history. The House passed it 294 to 134 in July 2025. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15 to 9 on May 14, 2026, with Democrats Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks crossing over. The bill sits on the Senate Legislative Calendar, eligible for a floor vote whenever leadership schedules one.
And there it sits. A unified draft merging the Banking and Agriculture Committee texts, reportedly more than 70 pages longer than the earlier versions and heavier on consumer protections, is expected as soon as the week of July 13, with floor action targeted for the week of July 20. The Senate breaks for recess on August 7.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has warned that failure in this window likely means no market structure law before 2030. Galaxy Research has lowered its passage odds for 2026 to 50%, down from 75% right after the committee vote, and Stifel’s Washington strategist has written that the bill’s prospects deteriorate materially if it misses the recess deadline.
The blockage is not primarily about crypto. It is about ethics. Senate Democrats have demanded language barring senior government officials, including the president, from holding business interests in the crypto industry, a demand aimed squarely at the Trump family’s estimated $2.3 billion in crypto exposure across memecoins, World Liberty Financial, and mining ventures.
The White House has said it will accept rules that apply across the board but not language that singles out one officeholder. A tentative compromise involving state attorney general enforcement fell apart. Even Gallego and Alsobrooks have said their floor votes depend on the ethics fix. As crypto.news covered, disputes over vacant SEC and CFTC commissioner seats have layered a second standoff on top of the first.
Two more fault lines complicate the count. Senator Amy Klobuchar has proposed an amendment that would block new CFTC rules from taking effect until at least four commissioners are confirmed, effectively turning the agency staffing dispute into a statutory switch on the entire regulatory framework the bill would create. CFTC Chair Selig has pushed back, arguing on July 9 that the bill is being derailed by matters extraneous to its substance and that the agency does not need a quorum to write rules.
And law enforcement groups have raised objections to Section 604, the developer protection language drawn from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, worried it could complicate illicit finance cases. Senator Ron Wyden countered on July 8 with a letter to Senate leadership urging that the BRCA provisions be preserved, giving the DeFi industry its one clear win of the month. Lummis, for her part, has answered the illicit finance critique by pointing to more than 16 safeguards in the text and $150 million in dedicated enforcement funding.
Add it together, and the arithmetic is unforgiving. Three working weeks remain in July, a defense spending bill competes for floor time, and every unresolved dispute needs to close simultaneously for 7 Democrats to move. The committee vote on May 14 offered a preview of what passage would be worth: within an hour of the 15-9 result, Bitcoin jumped to $81,449, and XRP gained 4.5% on the day. Citi has a $143,000 Bitcoin target and Standard Chartered a $150,000 target contingent on the bill becoming law. Markets have, in other words, priced regulatory clarity as a real asset. The Senate simply has not delivered it.
So the American question that matters most to Ripple, whether XRP is a digital commodity under CFTC oversight or something the SEC can still reach, remains formally unanswered. The 2023 court ruling in the SEC’s case against Ripple found that programmatic sales of XRP on exchanges were not securities transactions, and the SEC case itself ended in a settlement in 2025. But a court ruling in one district and a dropped enforcement action are not a statute. They are precedents that a future administration, a future commission, or a future judge could narrow. That is precisely the uncertainty the CLARITY Act exists to remove, and precisely the uncertainty Europe has already removed for Ripple’s payments business.
Does a license move a token? Here is where the bull case and the bear case split, and both deserve a fair hearing.
The bear case is blunt: the Luxembourg license is a company milestone, not a token catalyst. Ripple’s own announcement barely mentions XRP. The approval covers Ripple’s regulated payments services, not its tokens, and MiCA runs a separate authorization track for stablecoins that RLUSD has not yet cleared. Until that happens, Ripple’s own dollar token cannot be offered to the European public, a gap rivals like Circle’s USDC do not have.
Most Ripple Payments volume today settles in RLUSD or fiat, not XRP, and where XRP does route payments across the XRP Ledger, the fees burned per transaction amount to fractions of a cent. When the preliminary CASP approval landed in June, XRP fell about 3% that week alongside the broader market. The market looked at the news and, quite rationally, did not treat it as a buy signal.
The token’s price action through 2026 supports that reading. XRP peaked near $3.65 in July 2025, closed last year around $1.90, and has spent this summer defending the $1 level, trading recently in the $1.05 to $1.13 range. None of Ripple’s regulatory wins arrested the slide, because the slide was never about Ripple. It tracked a market-wide drawdown that pulled Bitcoin below $60,000 and cut altcoins far deeper.
The bull case asks for a longer clock. Regulatory moats compound slowly. Ripple can now sell regulated crypto payments to European banks and corporates at a moment when much of its competition legally cannot, and enterprise procurement cycles that begin in 2026 produce volume in 2027 and 2028. If that volume increasingly touches the XRP Ledger, whether through On-Demand Liquidity corridors, RLUSD flows that settle on XRPL, or tokenized asset activity, the token accrues usage that exists independently of speculative sentiment.
Institutional demand channels are also open in a way they were not a year ago: spot XRP ETFs have logged roughly $1.49 billion in cumulative net inflows since launching in November 2025, and as crypto.news noted, that streak recently stretched to 8 consecutive weeks even as the price languished. Standard Chartered and JPMorgan have both projected $4 to $8.4 billion in first-year ETF inflows if the CLARITY Act passes and unlocks allocators who cannot touch unclassified assets.
The honest synthesis is that the license changes Ripple’s revenue trajectory with high confidence and XRP’s demand trajectory with low confidence. The link between the two runs through actual ledger usage, and that is a metric to watch, not a headline to trade.
The deeper pattern: Two systems, two bets Step back from Ripple and the transatlantic gap looks like two different theories of how to regulate an industry.
Europe chose comprehensiveness first. MiCA is a single rulebook, written once, applied across 30 countries, with a hard deadline and real exclusion for non-compliance. Its critics have a point: the regime’s stablecoin rules, including a blanket ban on interest and heavy bank-deposit reserve requirements, pushed the largest stablecoin issuer on earth out of the market, and the European Commission has already opened a consultation on whether parts of the framework need repair. A rulebook that excludes Tether and stalls RLUSD is not obviously optimized for growth. But it exists, it is enforceable, and a company that clears it knows exactly where it stands.
The United States chose litigation first and legislation later, maybe. The SEC’s enforcement campaign defined the rules by lawsuit, Ripple’s case being the canonical example, and the current Congress is attempting to replace that regime with statute under intense time pressure and presidential conflict-of-interest baggage that no other financial bill has ever carried. The fallback if CLARITY fails is the SEC’s administrative framework known as Regulation Crypto, which Chair Paul Atkins has described as a bridge to legislation. A bridge built by one commission can be dismantled by the next, which is exactly the problem statutes exist to solve. Similar dynamics played out in the stablecoin fight that preceded this one, where, as crypto.news reported, even a bill that eventually passed spent months hostage to fights over state versus federal authority.
For a company like Ripple, which sells to the most conservative buyers in finance, the European bet pays off immediately, and the American bet pays off only if Congress acts. Cross-border payments are also a business where network effects follow regulatory access. Japan already shows what deep institutional integration looks like, with SBI running XRP-based remittance corridors that have no real American equivalent, a story crypto.news has examined in depth. Europe is now the second major bloc where Ripple can attempt that playbook with full regulatory cover. The United States, the company’s home market, is the one place where it still cannot.
There is one more wrinkle worth naming. If the CLARITY Act does pass before the August recess, the transatlantic gap closes fast, and it closes in a way that favors assets with existing institutional plumbing. XRP would enter CFTC jurisdiction as a digital commodity with ETFs already trading, a prime brokerage arm already inside the DTCC’s clearing ecosystem, and a European license portfolio already generating regulated volume. The pieces would connect. If the bill dies, the gap becomes the story for another year at minimum, and Ripple’s center of commercial gravity keeps shifting toward jurisdictions that gave it an answer.
What to watch from here Three markers will tell the story faster than any press release.
First, RLUSD’s European stablecoin authorization. The EMI license gives Ripple the corporate foundation to seek approval for its stablecoin under MiCA’s separate e-money token rules. Until that clears, the most natural settlement asset in Ripple’s European stack stays off the shelf for public offering, and the license story remains half finished.
Second, disclosed European client wins. Licenses are permission, not demand. The proof that regulatory certainty converts into business will arrive as named banks, payment providers, and corporates routing volume through Ripple Payments in the EEA. Watch for whether those announcements specify XRPL settlement or quietly settle in fiat and RLUSD, because that distinction is the entire XRP investment case in miniature.
Third, the Senate floor in the last 2 weeks of July. The merged CLARITY draft, the ethics compromise or its absence, and the 7-Democrat math will determine whether the United States joins Europe in giving Ripple a rulebook or hands the company another year of asymmetry. Either outcome is informative. One of them is also tradable.
The Luxembourg license will not move XRP this week, and anyone claiming otherwise is selling something. What it does is quietly settle an older argument. For years, skeptics said Ripple’s compliance-heavy strategy was expensive theater in an industry that rewarded speed over permission.
In Europe, in July 2026, permission became the product. The companies that skipped the theater are locked out of a market of 450 million people, and the company that endured 4 years of litigation from its own government is, for the moment, more welcome in Brussels than in Washington. That inversion says less about Ripple than it does about the two systems that produced it, and the next month will reveal whether the American half of the story finally catches up.
XRP’s 50 EMA, 100 EMA and 144 WMA are now compressing during a prolonged two-week consolidation phase. A rebound toward $1.60, followed by a Fibonacci-zone retest, could validate the proposed double bottom. Weekly RSI near 34 shows bullish divergence, suggesting downside momentum may be weakening around support. Analysts identify $1.22 and $1.60 as key confirmation levels before any broader trend reversal is verified. XRP is testing a critical long-term support zone as analysts assess whether the latest decline has established a durable market bottom. Technical signals, including moving-average compression, wave patterns and weekly momentum, suggest the asset may be entering a broader bottoming phase. However, confirmation still depends on its ability to reclaim key resistance levels and hold support during any retest.
Moving Averages Compress Near a Critical Price Zone According to market analyst EGRAG Crypto’s two-week chart, the 50 EMA, 100 EMA, and 144 WMA are converging during an extended consolidation. The analyst said this is the first major compression of those averages within the current structure.
According to the chart, similar compression previously appeared after a macro low and before a large price expansion. Nevertheless, the current setup still requires several confirmation steps.
The first condition is a rebound toward the 50 EMA near $1.60. EGRAG then expects a rejection, followed by a retest of the 0.618-to-0.50 Fibonacci area. That zone sits below the rebound target and is described as the decisive accumulation range.
#XRP – 2-Week Time Frame: Has the Bottom Already Been Printed?
One observation caught my attention…
👉For the first time, the 50 EMA, 100 EMA, and 144 WMA are compressing together during a major consolidation.
👉Historically, this type of compression has occurred after the… pic.twitter.com/o7lqaKJYSE
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) July 11, 2026
Holding it would support a double-bottom structure after a lower low. The chart places XRP near $1.10, close to the lower section of the long-term triangle. It also shows rising support extending from earlier cycle lows.
The two-week chart also marks a red horizontal support band and a narrowing symmetrical triangle. XRP price remains above the lower boundary, but it has not broken the upper trendline.
EGRAG listed $5.00 to $6.50 as a conservative measured-move range if the previous cycle’s expansion repeats. Higher Fibonacci extensions were marked near $9, $15, and $31.
Those figures remain technical targets rather than confirmed outcomes. Their relevance depends on price reclaiming resistance and preserving the proposed retest zone.
Weekly RSI Divergence Adds Momentum Confirmation On the same accord, market analyst Dark Defender’s weekly chart presents a separate framework based on Elliott Wave structure and relative strength. The analyst identified the recent low as a possible Wave 4 completion.
The chart places major reference levels at $0.9327, $1.2193, $1.8815, $2.9032, and $5.8563. XRP was shown near $1.11, between the first two levels.
According to the chart’s analysis, a rising lower trendline supported the recent decline, while the XRP price remained below a descending resistance line. That leaves the market compressed between support and overhead supply.
And now, $XRP weekly is quietly turning.
The Macro Wave 4 Low Is Likely In, Wave 5 Surge to Double Digits is Loading.
A hidden bullish divergence just printed on the weekly RSI, too.
Most people will realise Wave 4 bottomed months after it did. Some already know 🙂 pic.twitter.com/qWoYMuiiL1
— Dark Defender (@DefendDark) July 11, 2026
Dark Defender also marked a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly RSI. The indicator was near 34, close to the lower end of its recent range. Basically, a bullish divergence appears when momentum improves while price remains weak.
As a result, traders often use that pattern to identify fading downside pressure, although it does not confirm reversal. That distinction matters, as technical compression can precede movement in either direction.
Momentum evidence therefore needs confirmation from price and volume. Together, the charts identify clear thresholds that separate a potential durable base from a confirmed long-term reversal.
The combined evidence supports a developing bottom thesis, not a completed one. The strongest confirmation would come from a sustained recovery above $1.22 and then $1.60.
Until those levels are reclaimed, the charts show stabilization rather than a verified trend change. The bottom may have formed, but price confirmation remains incomplete.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has revealed that his company also shut down after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued it in 2020. He highlighted how they faced a dilemma after the Commission sued them, seeing as the government had unlimited resources to see the lawsuit through to the end.
Ripple CEO Says The Crypto Firm Almost Shut Down In an appearance at the KU School of Business, Garlinghouse said that they almost decided to shut down the company after the SEC sued them. He noted that the government had “infinite power and resources,” signaling that they faced a tough decision about whether to challenge the lawsuit.
The Ripple CEO further remarked that shutting down the company would likely have been an easier choice. Under such a scenario, he said that they would have simply distributed their XRP holdings to shareholders on a pro rata basis and informed the SEC that they no longer held ay XRP since the Commission said it was a security.
However, he added that such a decision would have been a bad outcome, seeing as hundreds of people would have lost their jobs. In line with this, he said he was glad they did not make such a decision, although it wasn’t easy at the time. The SEC sued Ripple in 2020 over the sale of XRP, and both sides eventually settled the long-running lawsuit last year after the Trump administration took office.
It is worth noting that the SEC had also sued Garlinghouse and Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, claiming that they had sold XRP as an unregistered security. However, Judge Analisa Torres eventually ruled that XRP was not a security in itself. Interestingly, the Ripple lawsuit judge recently handed Kalshi a major loss in its case against New York, ruling that New York state gambling laws apply to Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts.
XRP Community Member Reflects On The Journey Commenting on how far Ripple and XRP have come, community member BankXRP noted that Ripple’s U.S. business is fully back and that the company has secured licenses across multiple jurisdictions. As CoinGape reported, Ripple recently secured a new EU license, making it MiCA-compliant.
I remember December 2020 like it was yesterday.
SEC sues Ripple. Exchanges start delisting XRP overnight. Coinbase, one by one, others follow.
XRP is done. It’s over, sell before it goes to zero. Ripple is finished, the SEC just killed it.
For almost 2 years, that was the…
— 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸XRP (@BankXRP) July 11, 2026
Meanwhile, BankXRP added that institutional partnerships are stacking up globally for the crypto firm, while banks are building on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) rather than just talking about it. “The same “dead” project people wrote off in 2020 is now sitting at the center of institutional adoption,” he said.
The XRP community member also declared that bear markets and lawsuits do not kill real conviction; rather, they just test who actually understood the thesis in the first place.
For more on regulated crypto firms, please check out Best Regulated Crypto Exchanges in Europe in July 2026 – MiCA Compliant List
XRP is approaching a significant long-term support zone as technical analysts monitor whether recent declines have produced a stable bottom. Chart patterns and momentum indicators present early signs of possible recovery, but analysts caution that price confirmation remains essential before any lasting reversal is considered.
Moving averages compress at key supportOn the biweekly chart, market analyst EGRAG Crypto observed that XRP’s 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), 100-day EMA, and 144-week moving average (WMA) are converging for the first time in the current market cycle. This compression follows an extended period of consolidation lasting more than two weeks.
Historically, similar moving average compression has preceded major price expansions after macro lows. However, EGRAG Crypto noted that several steps are required for technical confirmation.
The first key signal is a bounce toward the 50 EMA at approximately $1.60. EGRAG Crypto believes a rejection from this level, followed by a retest of the 0.618-to-0.50 Fibonacci support zone, would reinforce the potential for a double-bottom structure near the $1.10 level, close to the lower region of a long-term triangle pattern.
XRP’s 50 EMA, 100 EMA, and 144 WMA have converged during a rare consolidation, an alignment that has previously been followed by strong price moves if confirmed by other signals.
Analysts emphasize that holding the Fibonacci support could establish a durable base, while a failure to maintain this zone would limit bullish prospects. XRP continues to trade above a critical horizontal support band, but it has not broken past the top of its symmetrical triangle on the same timeframe.
EGRAG Crypto set out technical upside targets based on previous cycle expansions, identifying a measured move zone between $5.00 and $6.50. If momentum persists, higher potential extension levels lie at $9, $15, and $31.
These targets remain theoretical without first reclaiming and sustaining key resistance levels. Analysts say focus should remain on whether XRP can break above $1.22 and later $1.60 during subsequent rallies.
Mini dictionary: EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and WMA (Weighted Moving Average) are technical analysis tools that smooth price data to help traders identify trend directions and potential support or resistance levels.
LevelStatus / Potential role$1.10Near current support, lower triangle boundary$1.22First key resistance to reclaim$1.6050 EMA, target for initial rebound$5.00–$6.50Measured move if structure confirms$9, $15, $31Higher extension targetsWeekly RSI divergence and Elliott Wave analysisTechnical strategist Dark Defender provided a separate weekly chart perspective using Elliott Wave counting and the relative strength index (RSI). According to this outlook, the pullback may have marked the end of Wave 4, with potential for an upward surge if a trend change is confirmed.
The chart presents reference points at $0.93, $1.22, $1.88, $2.90, and $5.85, with XRP lately moving around $1.11, between the first two levels.
The lower trendline appears to have sustained XRP’s recent drop, while the price continues to sit below descending resistance. This has forced a compression between persistent support and supply overhead.
Weekly RSI hovers near 34, revealing a hidden bullish divergence, which often signals that downward pressure is easing even as prices retest their lows.
Dark Defender identified that a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly RSI has emerged, which traders view as an early sign that the bearish trend may be losing momentum. With the RSI at a low level, any strengthening could further support the outlook for stabilization, but analysts warn that trend confirmation relies on price advancing past critical resistance zones. A rise above $1.22—and more decisively, $1.60—would be necessary before declaring a robust recovery.
Until then, chart signals indicate possible stabilization rather than full reversal. While the evidence for a developing base has grown, analysts agree that the next phase will be determined by XRP’s ability to overcome its resistance levels on strong volume.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Avalanche Stablecoin Supply Jumps 46% in Seven DaysAvalanche's stablecoin supply has posted one of its sharpest weekly gains on record. According to data shared by @BSCNews, the total stablecoin supply on @Avax surged 46% in just seven days, pushing the figure above $1.8 billion at time of writing. The move has lifted $AVAX into 11th place among all stablecoin networks globally, overtaking both @Plasma and @ripple's $XRP Ledger in the process.
The milestone is notable not just for its speed but for the broader trajectory it reflects. According to Token Terminal data, the combined market cap of stablecoins and tokenized funds on Avalanche climbed from roughly $1.2 billion in January 2024 to just above $2 billion in January 2026, representing a roughly 70% increase over two years. The latest weekly spike suggests that pace is now accelerating.
Institutional Momentum and Network Growth Behind the MoveThe stablecoin surge does not exist in isolation. Avalanche has been building institutional momentum across several fronts in 2026. Avalanche formally launched the Avalanche Payments Collective, an alliance of 28 major organisations including Franklin Templeton, VanEck, and Paxos, aimed at unifying stablecoin settlement, treasury infrastructure, and foreign exchange into a single blockchain-based framework spanning more than 150 countries.
Major financial institutions such as J.P. Morgan, Apollo, and Citi are also using Avalanche for real-world asset tokenization and backend infrastructure. That institutional engagement has helped attract deeper stablecoin liquidity to the network, providing a structural foundation beneath the latest supply figures.
On the technical side, Avalanche's C-Chain can process roughly 88% more transaction throughput than Ethereum while pricing transactions at approximately one-fiftieth of the cost, and it can rapidly increase block size during periods of high demand. Those performance characteristics make it a practical choice for stablecoin issuers and settlement-focused applications looking for speed and low cost.
The credit for building the infrastructure that underpins these results sits largely with the @AvaLabs team, whose continued development work has positioned Avalanche as a credible institutional-grade settlement layer heading into the second half of 2026.
Sources:
Yahoo Finance: Avalanche posts 70% surge in stablecoin and tokenized fund market cap in 2 years
VanEck: Avalanche 201, The Institutional Platform
DefiLlama: Avalanche Stablecoin Market Cap and Supply
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XRP price prediction remains centered on one question: can buyers finally push through the $1.15 to $1.20 resistance range? For now, XRP is changing hands around $1.08 to $1.12, staying trapped in a familiar range. Holding support is nice, but markets rarely hand out trophies for standing still.
Still, the defense of the $1.00 to $1.05 area over several weeks deserves attention. Sellers have tested that floor repeatedly without forcing a lasting breakdown. That keeps the bullish case alive, even if it has not earned a victory lap.
Meanwhile, exchange outflows have climbed from roughly 41 million XRP to about 123 million. That usually points to coins leaving trading platforms instead of preparing for sale. It is a positive signal, although one metric alone cannot carry the entire chart.
XRP Binance Flow, CryptoQuantEven so, price action still needs a spark. Without fresh buying pressure, XRP could continue drifting between support and resistance. Markets can be patient, but traders usually are not.
If buyers reclaim the $1.15 to $1.20 zone, momentum could improve quickly. Until then, XRP remains in consolidation, waiting for a catalyst instead of creating one.
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XRP Price Prediction: Can it Hit $1.20 Before the CLARITY Act Vote?XRP is trading around the $1.08 to $1.10 area, but the real battle sits closer to $1.18. That is where the 50 day EMA meets a crowd of sellers hoping to get out even. Push through that zone, and $1.20 to $1.25 becomes the next target. Breaking resistance is one thing. Staying above it is another.
The chart has started to look healthier, although it is not waving a green flag yet. RSI remains below 50, while the MACD has edged back into positive territory. That tells us selling pressure is easing, but buyers have not fully taken charge. For now, the market still wants a reason to commit.
That reason could come from Washington. The CLARITY Act remains on traders’ radar after missing its original timeline, with the Senate expected to revisit the issue later this month. Any sign of progress could quickly improve sentiment. If lawmakers kick the can again, XRP may stay trapped in its current range a little longer.
Prediction markets paint a balanced picture. Traders give XRP almost the same chance of testing $1.20 as revisiting the $1.00 area this month. A clean move above $1.18 could open the door to $1.25 or even $1.30. On the flip side, losing $1.00 would expose $0.87, while $0.80 remains the next notable support.
Institutional demand has not disappeared. Spot XRP ETFs continue to attract steady inflows, suggesting bigger investors are still accumulating. Ripple’s recent partnerships have also helped sentiment. Even so, XRP keeps bumping into sellers before reaching $1.20. The market can be stubborn, especially when everyone expects the same breakout.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as XRP Tests Key LevelsXRP’s ceiling problem with its strong demand base, capped upside by overhead supply and regulatory timing, is precisely the kind of setup that sends traders scanning for asymmetric exposure elsewhere. At here with a contested move to $1.20, the upside math on a near-term XRP trade is measured in percentages. XRP Ledger infrastructure continues to develop, but near-term price catalysts remain binary and event-dependent.
LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is a Layer 3 infrastructure project taking a different angle on the multi-chain problem: rather than bridging assets between ecosystems. It fuses Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single execution environment.
The architecture centers on a Unified Liquidity Layer with single-step execution and verifiable settlement. So, with Liquid, developers deploy once and access all three ecosystems without the usual bridge overhead or fragmented liquidity pools.
The presale is live at $0.01478 per $LIQUID, with $900K raised to date. For traders comfortable with that risk profile, the LiquidChain presale warrants research as a speculative position distinct from the regulatory-driven binary that XRP currently represents.
Key Takeaways XRP registered a 1.27% gain to reach $1.10, with critical resistance positioned at $1.12 The CLARITY Act successfully cleared the House and progressed through the Senate Banking Committee A procedural Senate vote could occur during the July 13–17, 2026 window Market experts EGRAG CRYPTO and Crypto Patel both highlight $0.85–$1.20 as a strategic accumulation range XRP ETF products recorded $1.48 billion in cumulative inflows, with combined net assets reaching $989 million XRP posted gains on Friday, reaching $1.10 with a 1.27% increase while the cryptocurrency market overall expanded by 1.54% to achieve a $2.19 trillion aggregate market capitalization. Bitcoin advanced 1.48% to settle at $64,002, while Ethereum demonstrated stronger momentum with a 3.03% climb to $1,790.
XRP Price Technical analysis of the four-hour timeframe reveals purchasing activity returning to the market, though upward momentum remains constrained beneath the $1.12 resistance threshold. The Relative Strength Index registers at 47.48, positioned marginally below the neutral 50 benchmark. The MACD histogram has shifted into positive territory at 0.0018, with the MACD line executing an upward cross above the signal line, suggesting potential price recovery.
A decisive breach above $1.12 would establish a pathway toward $1.15, subsequently targeting $1.20. Conversely, $1.07 represents the critical support foundation. Should this level fail to hold, XRP faces potential downward pressure toward $1.05 or the psychologically significant $1.00 threshold.
Market analyst Celal Kucuker shared insights via Twitter, emphasizing that “smart money accumulates when everyone is bored.” His technical framework identifies $0.85–$1.20 as the accumulation territory, $1.65 as the momentum inflection point, $3–$3.50 as the macro breakout region, and establishes a cycle objective of $15. His core thesis: strategic patience outweighs reactive trading.
CLARITY Act Legislative Timeline The CLARITY Act secured House approval on July 17, 2025, garnering 294 affirmative votes. The Senate Banking Committee pushed the legislation forward on May 14, 2026, through a 15-9 decision. The Senate reconvenes following its recess on July 13, with procedural voting potentially scheduled between July 13 and July 17.
House-Senate reconciliation proceedings may commence during the July 20–24 period. Should both legislative chambers approve identical versions, the legislation could land on President Trump’s desk before August concludes. Failure to meet this timeline would shift expectations to September.
Senate Democrats have voiced apprehensions regarding Trump’s cryptocurrency investments and are demanding committee hearings, pointing to potential conflict-of-interest complications connected to the CLARITY Act. The ethics component continues to represent a contentious negotiation point.
The proposed legislation would establish a comprehensive national infrastructure for digital asset commerce and oversight, distributing regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. Enhanced regulatory clarity could diminish ambiguity surrounding XRP’s asset classification and facilitate expanded institutional market participation.
Expert Accumulation Price Targets Cryptocurrency analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has designated $0.85–$1.20 as a historically significant macro support band. According to his assessment, XRP could retreat to $0.85 while preserving its long-term structural integrity. His price objectives include $1.65 for momentum confirmation, $3.00–$3.50 as substantial resistance barriers, and $15 as the complete cycle destination.
#XRP – BENT FORK 🍴 – $15 (Accumulation Band):
Right now, $XRP is sitting near the historical accumulation band around:
▫️ $0.85–$1.20
This zone has acted as macro support in previous cycles.
Can $XRP wick lower toward $0.85? Yes.
But as long as this band holds, the macro… pic.twitter.com/LQ6mMPdcUb
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) July 10, 2026
Analyst Crypto Patel establishes the accumulation window between $0.70 and $1.10. His MACD technical evaluation indicates an emerging bullish crossover pattern. Patel referenced comparable technical configurations that preceded price surges exceeding 1,000%, projecting a trajectory toward $9 or beyond if XRP maintains present support levels and penetrates the $3 threshold.
Regarding exchange-traded fund developments, XRP products registered zero net daily inflows on July 9. Aggregate inflows total $1.48 billion, while combined net assets measure $989.46 million. Bitwise commands the leading position with $308.15 million in assets under management, trailed by Canary at $252.97 million and Franklin at $249.54 million.
XRP recorded a 1.27% increase on Friday, reaching $1.10, as the broader cryptocurrency market advanced 1.54% to a total capitalization of $2.19 trillion. Bitcoin closed at $64,002 after a 1.48% rise, while Ethereum demonstrated greater strength, gaining 3.03% to $1,790.
Technical outlook: Key support and resistance levelsIn the four-hour timeframe, technical analysis shows a moderate uptick in buying activity for XRP, but momentum remains limited below the key resistance at $1.12. The Relative Strength Index currently stands at 47.48, slightly under the neutral 50 line, pointing to a cautious market environment. The MACD histogram flipped positive at 0.0018, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line to suggest a possible price rebound.
Should XRP decisively move above the $1.12 barrier, it could aim for $1.15 next, followed by $1.20. On the downside, $1.07 acts as immediate support. Failure to maintain this level may push the price towards $1.05 or even the psychologically important $1.00 threshold.
XRP holders face a critical resistance at $1.12, with $1.07 as key support; a breakout could set sights on $1.20, while a dip might test $1.00.
Analysts highlight accumulation range and cycle targetsSeveral market analysts have outlined price bands where they see strategic accumulation opportunities for XRP. Analyst Celal Kucuker argued that, “smart money accumulates when everyone is bored.” He marks the $0.85–$1.20 range as a prime accumulation zone, with $1.65 as a momentum pivot, $3.00–$3.50 as macro breakout points, and a cycle target set at $15. Kucuker’s approach emphasizes the value of patience rather than reactive trading.
EGRAG CRYPTO, another well-followed analyst, views $0.85–$1.20 as a historic macro support area. According to his analysis, a decline toward $0.85 does not compromise XRP’s long-term structure. He points to $1.65 as a trigger for renewed momentum, with $3.00–$3.50 acting as major resistance, and $15 as a cycle target.
Crypto Patel positions the accumulation range slightly lower, between $0.70 and $1.10. His MACD-based technical setup indicates a bullish crossover, referencing earlier similar patterns that led to gains exceeding 1,000%. Patel believes that maintaining current support and breaking above $3 could send XRP to $9 or higher.
Mini dictionary: MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), a trend-following technical indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price, widely used to identify changes in momentum and potential price reversals in crypto markets.
AnalystAccumulation RangeMomentum PivotMacro BreakoutCycle TargetCelal Kucuker$0.85–$1.20$1.65$3–$3.5$15EGRAG CRYPTO$0.85–$1.20$1.65$3–$3.5$15Crypto Patel$0.70–$1.10–$3+$9+ Smart money, according to Celal Kucuker, accumulates in the $0.85–$1.20 range, setting ambitious targets up to $15 for the cycle if key levels are reclaimed.
CLARITY Act: Regulating digital assetsThe CLARITY Act, a legislative proposal to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, cleared the House on July 17, 2025, with support from 294 representatives. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14, 2026, by a 15-9 vote. The Senate, set to reconvene from recess on July 13, could hold a key procedural vote between July 13 and July 17.
Should both the House and Senate approve identical versions of the bill, it may reach President Trump’s desk before September. The process, however, faces opposition from Senate Democrats, who have raised concerns about President Trump’s personal investments in cryptocurrencies and potential conflicts of interest.
If enacted, the CLARITY Act would build a comprehensive national structure for digital asset commerce, sharing regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This could clarify asset classifications such as XRP’s and allow broader institutional participation.
Mini dictionary: The CLARITY Act is a proposed US federal law designed to provide clear guidelines for the regulation and oversight of digital assets, distributing responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC.
XRP ETF flow and institutional activityRecent data shows that exchange-traded fund (ETF) products linked to XRP registered no net daily inflows on July 9. Accumulated inflows have reached $1.48 billion, and combined net assets now total $989.46 million. Bitwise leads the field with $308.15 million in assets under management, followed closely by Canary and Franklin at $252.97 million and $249.54 million, respectively.
ETF ProviderNet Assets ($ million)Bitwise308.15Canary252.97Franklin249.54Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Vet (Hussein Zangana), who is the Director of Community at the XRPL Foundation, urges the XRP community to shift away from false narratives about a potential Swift integration and instead focus on the real developments taking place across the XRP ecosystem.
"A lot is happening with XRP and the XRP Ledger, we don't need to make up this nonsense," Vet said in a recent X post outlining various developments on the XRP Ledger. These include "security improvements, on-chain loans, stablecoins and FX market to compliant trading capabilities with permissioned Domains." Vet also highlighted ongoing work to bring onchain privacy to the XRP Ledger.
Vet said that these developments are accompanied by significant efforts to onboard institutions and consumers and scale adoption, adding that there is still a lot of work to do.
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SWIFT is not using XRP. I suggest Blocking all XRP influencers running around lying to you they are using XRP right now or tell you with certainty they will.
Free yourself, get lean. Same story with the DTCC news weeks ago.
It looks incredibly desperate, luckily its only a…
— Vet (@Vet_X0) July 11, 2026 "SWIFT is not using XRP," Vet said, debunking false claims being peddled by a few XRP influencers of such an integration. He suggested blocking individuals who say that SWIFT is already using XRP or will definitely do so in the future.
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This week, Ripple received authorization of its Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) license from Luxembourg's Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). The authorization confirms Ripple as fully MiCA-compliant, with its solutions underpinned by XRP and RLUSD made available to financial institutions, corporates, and businesses across all 30 countries of the European Economic Area.
Swift not using XRPSwift announced this week that its blockchain-based ledger was ready for use to pilot 24/7 tokenized cross-border payments. This announcement created a buzz in the XRP community, with some falsely claiming the global messaging network is exploring an XRP integration.
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Former Swift exec Tom Zschach pushed back on this claim in recent responses on X.
"None of this is evidence that Swift will use XRP," Zschach said in response to an X user who claimed that Swift will use XRP, sharing screenshots of cryptocurrencies compatible with ISO 20022.
"It shows crypto projects adopting the ISO 20022 messaging format, an open standard Swift does not own, while confusing a message syntax with a settlement asset that Swift, a network that never touches the value leg and has no architectural slot for. Waiting," Zschach stated.
Grayscale, one of the world’s largest digital asset managers, has released a new framework mapping out the dominant investment narratives within the cryptocurrency market, positioning XRP as the foremost blockchain for global payments.
Distinct roles for major blockchainsGrayscale highlighted that the crypto sector is evolving away from treating coins as direct competitors. Instead, the company sees each leading network as playing a unique, practical role tailored to specific real-world applications.
Under this model, Bitcoin takes the role of digital money, Ethereum functions as the foundation for decentralized computing, and XRP stands out for enabling seamless cross-border transactions. Solana, on the other hand, focuses on powering high-performance applications.
According to Grayscale, “XRP was specifically engineered to move value across borders quickly and at minimal cost, making it well-suited for global settlements and cross-border transfers.”
The firm also identified other networks serving critical infrastructure needs: Hyperliquid enables round-the-clock on-chain trading; Chainlink provides tokenization tools and oracle services; Sui is developing next-generation blockchain technology; and Avalanche offers highly customizable blockchain networks.
Mini dictionary: Hyperliquid is a decentralized derivatives exchange operating 24/7 entirely on-chain, without intermediaries. It offers perpetual trading and aims to deliver low-latency performance for crypto traders.
XRP’s utility in global paymentsXRP’s identification as a global payments blockchain reflects its original design. The XRP Ledger was built to process fast, low-cost transactions, allowing value to move worldwide in just seconds, often at a fraction of traditional costs. This efficiency has attracted financial institutions, fintech companies, and payment providers that seek to modernize international money transfers.
Unlike platforms focused primarily on decentralized application development, XRP Ledger’s primary objective remains streamlined, scalable cross-border payments and settlements.
BlockchainMain NarrativeMain Use CaseBitcoinDigital moneyStore of value, paymentsEthereumProgrammable computerSmart contracts, dAppsXRPGlobal paymentsCross-border settlementsSolanaHigh performanceScalable appsRipple expands XRP’s ecosystem and visibilitySan Francisco-based Ripple, the company behind much of XRP’s ecosystem development, has continued to grow its payment network and improve the XRP Ledger with robust enterprise-grade infrastructure.
The introduction of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, pegged to the US dollar, has further solidified XRPL’s foundation for financial applications and has enhanced its capabilities beyond speculative trading.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently marked a new milestone by announcing a partnership with the University of Kansas. The Kansas Jayhawks became the first major collegiate athletics team to wear XRP-branded jerseys, broadening XRP’s reach beyond finance and into mainstream sports.
Grayscale’s perspective reflects a broader change in how institutions view digital assets, shifting focus toward the specific use cases addressed by these technologies rather than just their market cap or trading volume.
Grayscale’s report suggests that, while Bitcoin remains dominant as digital money and Ethereum as the leading programmable platform, XRP has secured its reputation as the backbone for global payments.
With ongoing institutional adoption and the continued push for tokenization and efficient cross-border transfers, Grayscale sees XRP as one of the most established real-world applications in digital assets.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported that spot liquidity in the XRP market is rapidly increasing, but the delegitimization process in derivatives trading, which has been ongoing since mid-June, has not yet ended.
According to CryptoQuant data, Binance experienced a significant increase in XRP spot trading activity between July 4th and 8th. Specifically, on July 7th, 64.9 million XRP were injected into the exchange, while 49.2 million XRP were withdrawn on the same day.
The analysis added that this volatility in the spot market was not the factor that triggered the closing of positions in derivative markets. It was noted that the size of open XRP positions on Binance decreased from over $500 million in mid-June to $431 million by July 4th, and further to $399 million by July 10th.
During the same period, long position liquidations increased by 94 percent on a weekly basis. While long position liquidations were reported to be 172 percent above the average of the last three months, short position liquidations decreased by 53 percent.
CryptoQuant stated that the high inflows and outflows in the spot market indicate investors repositioning their capital rather than anticipating a new and strong direction. The continued decline in open positions suggests that leveraged capital continues to exit the XRP derivatives market.
In contrast, a different trend was observed in funding rates. Binance XRP funding rate, which briefly turned negative at the end of June, increased by 266 percent on a weekly basis, rising to 0.007.
According to CryptoQuant, as open positions decline while funding rates rise and long position liquidations increase, it indicates that remaining or newly opened long positions in the market are paying increasingly higher premiums. This suggests that despite a decrease in the total derivatives market capitalization, a segment of investors still maintains a bullish outlook.
On-chain data, however, presents a more balanced picture compared to the derivatives market. The number of active addresses on the XRP network remains 11 percent below the average of the last three months, indicating that broad-based network participation has not yet fully recovered.
However, the number of transactions increased by approximately 3-4 percent on both a weekly and monthly basis. Nevertheless, the total number of transactions remains 21 percent below the three-month average.
During the same period, a decline in the NVT ratio, which measures the relationship between XRP’s network value and transaction volume, suggested that the previous decline in network usage may have slowed and usage may have begun to stabilize.
CryptoQuant stated that the market becomes more vulnerable to funding rate corrections during periods when long position liquidations continue, funding rates rise, and the derivatives market size shrinks.
If this trend continues, funding rates may fall again as overly optimistic leveraged positions are liquidated. However, strengthening spot demand and a continued recovery in network activity could limit the impact of any potential correction.
*This is not investment advice.
Follow our Telegram and Twitter account now for exclusive news, analytics and on-chain data!
XRP Ledger activity has dropped substantially in the past few months. Separately, a popular analyst outlined why the current range is very important for XRP.
Ripple’s cross-border token has stagnated around $1.10 ever since it defended the $1.00 support a few weeks ago during the darkest hours of the overall market’s crash.
Worrisome on-chain data shows that the demand for the XRP Ledger has dwindled lately, but other factors are at play for Ripple and its token. The question now is whether a new rally is brewing.
XRP Network Activity Plummets CryptoPotato reported that, after the first quarter of the year, network activity on Ripple’s XRP Ledger had rocketed throughout the period despite the painful price performance of the native token. Messari’s report at the time indicated that there were still strong network fundamentals, including stablecoin adoption, real-world tokenization, and transaction activity, which were all showing solid increases.
However, more recent data from Santiment Intelligence shows a major shift. XRP Ledger activity has “gone unusually quiet” in recent weeks, while the token’s price fails to break out of the $1.05-$1.15 range.
The network registered only 25,350 wallets, which became the second-lowest day of the year. New wallet creation dropped to 2,130, the lowest level in almost two years.
“After late-June dip-buying excitement, this looks like traders are waiting for a real catalyst instead of chasing another small bounce,” said Santiment.
Nevertheless, the company remains optimistic about XRP’s future due to other ecosystem factors. It added that XRP still has several “potential sparks beyond” price alone, such as RLUSD’s growth, tokenized-asset activity, and institutional payment use cases. All of these, combined with possible lending tools, could “bring users back on-chain if momentum improves.”
Key Macro Support Zone Meanwhile, popular crypto analyst and long-term XRP bull, EGRAG CRYPTO, weighed in on the asset’s short-term potential, explaining that it is currently trading inside what has historically been one of its most important accumulation zones. It stretches between $0.85 and $1.20.
You may also like: XRP’s On-Chain Data Flashes Warning While Sellers Continue to Dominate Japanese Firms Are Boosting BTC and XRP Holdings – SBI VC Trade Reveals Why XRP Suffered 22% June Loss, but History Favors a Major July Rally EGRAG argued that this range has repeatedly acted as macro support during previous market cycles, but still believes that a dip to $0.85 is in the cards. Nevertheless, even if XRP drops to that level, which would be a new multi-year low, the analyst expects it to bounce and keep the broader bottoming structure intact.
On the other hand, EGRAG added that the first major resistance in XRP’s path forward is at $1.65. If broken, the token can head toward $3.00-$3.50. The ultimate goal, according to this analysis, would be $15, described as “the full cycle expansion target,” but it sounds rather far-fetched at the moment.
#XRP – BENT FORK 🍴 – $15 (Accumulation Band):
Right now, $XRP is sitting near the historical accumulation band around:
▫️ $0.85–$1.20
This zone has acted as macro support in previous cycles.
Can $XRP wick lower toward $0.85? Yes.
But as long as this band holds, the macro… pic.twitter.com/LQ6mMPdcUb
XRP saw a sharp rise in spot trading on Binance between July 4 and July 8, even as activity in the derivatives market continued to decline.
Market watcher CryptoOnchain on CryptoQuant said capital is moving into the spot market while leveraged positions continue to unwind. Similar setups have historically preceded funding-rate resets.
Binance Spot Activity Rises While Leverage Shrinks CryptoOnchain noted that Binance recorded a spike in XRP spot activity during the period. On July 7 alone, inflows reached 64.9 million XRP, compared with 49.2 million XRP in outflows.
However, the surge in spot trading did not reverse the ongoing decline in derivatives activity. Binance XRP Open Interest had already fallen from more than $500 million in mid-June to $431 million by July 4. It later dropped further to $399 million by July 10.
Meanwhile, long liquidations jumped 94% from the previous week and were 172% above the three-month average. Short liquidations, by contrast, fell 53%.
Funding Rates Rise Despite Lower Open Interest Although Open Interest continued to fall, Binance funding rates recovered after briefly turning negative in late June. Funding rates rose 266% week over week to 0.007.
According to CryptoOnchain, rising funding rates, falling Open Interest, and massive long liquidations suggest that traders opening new long positions are paying higher premiums even as overall leverage declines.
On-Chain Activity Shows Signs of Recovery The report said XRP’s on-chain data looks more stable than its derivatives market. Active addresses remain 11% below the three-month average, showing network activity has yet to fully recover.
However, transaction volume increased by about 3% to 4% over the past week and month, although it is still 21% below the three-month average. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has also declined, which may indicate network usage is stabilizing.
Funding-Rate Reset May Be Next CryptoOnchain said the current market structure, marked by rising funding rates, falling Open Interest, and heavy long liquidations, has often led to funding-rate resets in the past. Whether that happens again will depend on how traders react to the gap between stronger funding rates and weaker leveraged participation.
CryptoQuant Flags Possible Reversal Signal Separately, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that XRP’s derivatives market has reached extreme bearish levels after its sharp decline, with Binance funding rates turning deeply negative. He said excessive short positioning could act as a contrarian signal, similar to conditions seen in April 2025 before XRP’s price rallied 126%.
While past patterns do not guarantee future results, Darkfost said the combination of a major correction and extreme bearish sentiment could increase the odds of a medium-term recovery.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz has joined in the recent debate about the impact of XRP sales by Ripple on the holders of the leading altcoin.
While growing speculation about this move suggests that token holders often end up as victims of such actions by Ripple, Schwartz has publicly dismissed these claims, noting that the company's XRP sales do not come at the expense of token holders.
Ripple's business model questionedSchwartz aired his views in response to an ongoing debate that started after pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan mentioned that Ripple sells XRP directly to retail investors, noting that the company has not done so for years.
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The statement triggered a debate when a Chainlink executive argued that Ripple primarily monetizes its pre-mined XRP holdings to fund operations, acquisitions, and shareholder returns.
The Chainlink executive went further to declare that every time Ripple sells XRP, the company essentially shifts the costs and risks to XRP holders while the company itself and its shareholders enjoy the benefits.
He further mentioned that XRP does not serve as a bridge asset, claiming that stablecoins such as Ripple's RLUSD have overtaken that use case.
Schwartz clears misconceptionsSchwartz argued that the claims are misguided, explaining that the actual cause of most negative outcomes is solely dependent on investor sentiment.
He explained that if investors reasonably expect Ripple's future XRP sales to negatively affect the price of the asset, such expectations are already reflected in today's market price.
According to him, this causes buyers to purchase XRP at a lower price to account for those anticipated sales, and they are likewise expected to sell at correspondingly lower prices later.
XRP is showing signs of growing pressure as new Binance derivatives data points to a market that may not have finished its correction.
While the token continues to trade above the important support level at $1, several key derivatives indicators suggest traders should remain cautious.
Specifically, falling Open Interest, rising funding rates, and a sharp increase in long liquidations have created conditions that often lead to a short-term pullback before the market finds a stronger footing.
XRP currently trades at $1.10, down 4.23% over the past seven days. Although the price has recovered from some of its recent losses, the latest derivatives data suggests that the market is still adjusting after weeks of heavy positioning.
Spot Activity Suggests Traders Are Repositioning Notably, Binance recorded a noticeable increase in XRP spot activity between July 4 and July 8, with large amounts of the token moving into and out of the exchange.
The biggest movement came on July 7, when 64.9 million XRP entered Binance while 49.2 million XRP left the platform. This left the exchange with a net inflow of roughly 15.7 million XRP for the day.
However, these figures do not necessarily indicate fresh buying. The large volumes on both sides suggest that existing holders were moving funds and adjusting their positions instead of opening major new long trades.
XRP Open Interest Continues to Fall Also, the derivatives market has steadily lost leverage over the past few weeks. Specifically, Binance XRP Open Interest exceeded $500 million in mid-June before dropping to $431 million by July 4. The decline continued over the following days, with Open Interest falling further to $399 million by July 10.
This marked a drop of more than $100 million in about three weeks, showing that leveraged traders have continued to reduce their exposure instead of increasing it.
XRP Liquidity Migration | CryptoQuant Liquidation data show a similar trend. Long liquidations jumped 94% compared with the previous week and climbed 172% above the three-month average.
In contrast, short liquidations fell 53%, showing that bullish traders absorbed most of the losses. This suggests that every recent attempt to push XRP higher has met strong selling pressure, forcing more long positions out of the market.
XRP Funding Rate Trend In addition, toward the end of June, Binance funding rates briefly turned negative, showing that short positions had gained the upper hand and that long traders were collecting funding payments. The situation changed almost immediately, as funding rates then climbed 266% to reach 0.007.
This shows that fewer leveraged positions remain open, yet traders who are still holding long positions now pay higher funding costs.
Markets have often responded to similar conditions with a funding rate reset, where another round of long liquidations pushes prices lower, brings funding rates back to normal, and clears out excess leverage before a healthier recovery begins.
XRP Approaches a Key Turning Point XRP’s recent price movement reflects what has happened in the derivatives market. After falling 22% during June, the token recovered to $1.18 by July 4. However, it failed to hold that level and slipped to $1.08 by July 8, around the same time long liquidations reached their highest levels.
The price has since recovered slightly to $1.10, leaving XRP with a 6.62% gain for July despite its recent weekly decline. However, the market still faces strong resistance above current levels.
For now, $1.08 remains the key support level. A break below it could confirm that the expected funding rate reset has started, increasing the chances of another wave of selling from leveraged long positions.
On the other hand, a move above $1.16, followed by a breakout past $1.18, would show that XRP has worked through its deleveraging phase without another sharp decline.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
The XRP price chart shows that it has spent months grinding lower, which is frustrating bulls and it is rewarding almost nobody except patient buyers.
On the surface , the XRP’s trend still looks awfully ugly. But digging into the on-chain data, a more complicated story begins to emerge. As retail participation continues fading, losses are mounting, yet spoke of the largest holders appearing to be moving in the opposite direction. That’s where XRP gets more interesting.
XRP Retail Activity Keeps Drying UpRight now, there are several onchain metrics pointing toward a prolonged capitulation phase rather than renewed enthusiasm.
The daily transaction volume profit-to-loss ratio surged to 3.802, supported by 22.04 million in realized profit against 5.79 million in realized losses.
At the same time, Network Realized PnL remained deeply negative on July 7, which is suggesting many participants continue exiting positions at a loss.
Another notable signal arrived on July 1, when a sharp Age consumed spike indicated older dormant coins were suddenly moving.
Historically, such activity has often appeared during periods of structural capitulation rather than market euphoria.
Meanwhile, market participation keeps shrinking. Active addresses across the 24-hour, 7-day, and 30-day timeframes have steadily declined since January 2026, while whale transaction counts have also weakened.
That fading engagement coincides with open interest dropping from $1.32 billion to $764.57 million, highlighting a sharp reduction in speculative positioning clearly.
XRP Whales Tell A Different StoryRetail sentiment may be deteriorating, but larger holders appear to be following another playbook.
Wallets holding between 10million to 100 million XRP have accumulated throughout 2026, even as mid-sized holders 100K to 10 million have distributed tokens and smaller investors from 10 to 100,000 coins have shown limited growth.
At the same time, funding rates have turned positive during July that is indicating speculative short position has eased alongside mega whales rising, this suggesting that bullish positioning could be gradually returning to the derivatives market.
Adding to that backdrop, every major MVRV timeframe, including 30-day, 180-day, 1year, and three year metrics remains below the zero line, placing XRP in an undervalued zone.
XRP Price Chart Still Demands Technical ConfirmationDespite improving accumulation signals, the XRP price remains trapped inside a well-defined descending parallel channel that has governed the market since peaking near $3.65 in July 2025.
The asset is now compressing around the key $1.00 psychological support level. If broader market weakness intensifies, particularly alongside a deeper correction in the leading cryptocurrency, XRP price could break below the channel and revisit the $0.80 support region.
For the bearish structure to genuinely change, buyers must first reclaim the channel’s upper trendline before pushing price back above the $1.40-$1.60 resistance zone. Until both hurdles are cleared, technical momentum remains cautious even as onchain data hints that long-term accumulation may already be underway beneath the surface.
Story Ends Here
Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.
Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.
Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.
Ripple (XRP) price is up slightly by 0.02% today, July 11, to trade at $1.10 at the time of writing. The slight gain comes as trading volumes cool into the weekend, with CoinMarketCap showing that XRP’s volume are down by 25% to $762 million.
Traders are now bracing for volatility in the coming week with the CLARITY Act coming back in focus as the US Congress resumes sessions on July 13 after the July 4 recess.
Congress Schedules CLARITY Act Hearing Data from the US Congress website shows that the House Financial Services Committee will have a field hearing in New York regarding the CLARITY Act on July 17.
CLARITY Act Hearing This hearing was even confirmed by Congressman French Hill during an interview with FOX, where he said that lawmakers want to ensure that CLARITY can be merged with old legislation.
“We’ve got to get this market framework in place to be combined with the GENIUS Act”,” Hill said.
The Congressman’s remarks come after a CoinGape report revealed that the final draft for the CLARITY Act could drop between July 13 and July 17 and potentially move the XRP price.
Pro-crypto senators like Cynthia Lummis say that this final draft will be the last chance that the CLARITY Act has to pass before the mid-term elections happen in November.
The resumption of the US Senate from the July 4 holiday recess has also caused a slight increase in the odds of the CLARITY Act being approved from 40% on July 8 to 44% today, July 11.
XRP Price Eyes Wedge Breakout as Bearish Momentum Fades The price of XRP trades within a falling wedge pattern. This pattern has a depth of 22%, and it usually appears when the trend is about to change from a bearish one to a bullish one.
The RSI reading of 47 also suggests that bears might be losing their grip. This RSO has moved from 32 on June 30 to 47 on July 11, suggesting that buyers are slowly replacing sellers.
This RSI needs to make a higher high above 50 to confirm that the momentum has changed to bullish.
XRP value faces resistance at $1.16. Moving above this obstacle could pave the way for a 22% gain to $1.42.
XRP Price Chart But if XRP fails to close above $1.16, bears might force it back into consolidation within the falling wedge pattern, and the price could drop to the support of $1.03.
XRP Ledger Activity Hits Rare Lows SWIFT recently partnered with several banks affiliated with Ripple, but that did not increase network activity like is usually the case.
Instead, data from Santiment shows that the level of activity on the XRP Ledger is at the second-lowest level in 2026.
XRP Ledger saw only 25,350 active wallets on July 11 and 2,130 new wallets.
The number of new wallets on XRP Ledger is at the lowest point since November 2024, with Santiment saying that buyers are hesitating until there is a real catalyst that can push the price up.
XRP Price has triggered one of its rarest technical signals, sparking fresh speculation about a potential price rally. The token’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 30 for only the second time in its 12-year history.
The last time this happened, XRP went on to gain more than 1,100%. While past performance does not guarantee the same outcome, many traders are now watching closely to see if XRP could be preparing for another major move.
XRP Weekly RSI Drops Below 30 for Only the Second TimeEntrepreneur and popular crypto trader Lark Davis pointed out that XRP’s weekly RSI has fallen into oversold territory only twice since the token launched.
“In 12 years, XRP has hit oversold on the weekly RSI. Two times. Not five times, not three times—just two times in 12 years.”
According to Davis, the first time it happened was during the 2022 bear market, when XRP’s weekly RSI dropped to 28.09 after heavy selling pushed the price from $0.8519 to a June 2022 low of $0.2905.
The second time came in last month in June 2026, when the weekly RSI fell to 29.6, marking another historic low. At that time, the XRP price fell from a high of $1.34 to a low of $1.020.
Since this signal has appeared only twice in XRP’s history, many traders are treating it as an important development.
What Happened the Last Time XRP Became Oversold?The previous oversold signal in 2022 marked a major turning point for XRP.
After falling below $0.30, the token gradually recovered before entering a strong bull market. By July 2025, XRP had climbed above $3.66, delivering gains of more than 1,100% from its lows.
This historical move has drawn attention to the latest RSI signal. However, Davis warned that the indicator should not be viewed as a guarantee of another rally.
“That doesn’t guarantee the same outcome this time. There are no guarantees in markets. But when a signal this rare appears on an asset with this much institutional attention and retail participation, I think it deserves attention.”
In other words, the RSI suggests that selling pressure may be fading, but investors should still look for confirmation from price action before expecting a sustained recovery.
XRP Price Analysis: Is a Move Toward $4.50 Possible?The monthly XRP chart suggests that selling pressure may be easing.
According to Coinpedia’s analysis, XRP may have completed the fourth phase of its correction and could now be preparing for another upward move.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading near $1.10, while the lower Bollinger Band sits around $0.80. Meanwhile, the monthly RSI has recovered to around 47, bouncing back from oversold levels. This indicates that buying interest is slowly returning.
However, a key challenge remains. XRP must break above and hold the 20-month moving average near $2.01 before a long-term bullish trend can be confirmed.
In the short term, the first major resistance lies between $1.18 and $1.20, where sellers could become active again.
Will XRP Repeat Its Previous Bull Run?The weekly RSI falling below 30 is one of the rarest signals in XRP’s trading history, having occurred only twice in the past 12 years. The previous signal was followed by a massive rally, but there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself.
Still, improving momentum, recovering RSI levels, and growing market interest have made XRP one of the cryptocurrencies traders are watching closely. If buyers can push the price above key resistance levels, XRP could build the momentum needed for a stronger recovery and potentially challenge new highs in the months ahead.
Story Ends Here
Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.
Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.
Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.
The XRP Ledger has entered a period of noticeably weaker on-chain activity, as key network metrics fall to some of their lowest levels this year.
Data from Santiment shows that daily active addresses recently dropped to 25,350, marking the second-lowest level recorded this year. Meanwhile, new wallet creation fell to 2,130, its lowest point since November 2024.
Notably, these figures show that activity on the network has slowed sharply, even though XRP continues to show resilience above the crucial $1 psychological mark.
This decline did not happen all at once, as active addresses gradually trended lower over several weeks after reaching stronger levels earlier in June. Each drop settled below the previous one until the latest reading, showing that participation on the network kept fading.
The trend has also continued beyond the lows highlighted by Santiment. Specifically, daily active addresses have since fallen further to 22,888.
Mid-June Recovery Lost Momentum While network activity saw a decline in early June, this trend briefly paused on June 15, when increased dip buying lifted XRP’s price and the number of active addresses. For a short time, the move suggested that interest in the network had returned and that activity could begin to recover.
XRP Network Activity | Santiment However, the momentum was short-lived. XRP soon corrected back to its familiar $1.05 to $1.15 trading range, while active addresses resumed their decline. The network never regained the activity levels seen before or during the brief rally.
Market data suggests that the rebound emerged as a result of short-term buying from existing holders rather than fresh demand entering the market. Notably, the network did not attract a noticeable wave of new users during that period.
Data on XRP wallet creation supports this idea, as new address growth rose but failed to match the rally and uptick in wallet activity. Essentially, the increase in activity came mainly from users who were already on the network, not newcomers joining the XRP Ledger.
Stable Price Hides Falling Network Activity Now, the XRP ecosystem is witnessing a widening gap between XRP’s price and XRPL on-chain activity. Specifically, while network participation has continued to weaken, XRP has held relatively steady around $1.0962.
The token has avoided a major price breakdown below $1 even as active addresses and wallet creation have fallen to multi-month and year-to-date lows.
This gap suggests that existing liquidity and large holders have persistently supported the price despite fewer users actively engaging with the network. In a stronger market, price stability at these levels would usually come with growing network activity.
XRP Still Needs a Strong Catalyst Santiment believes several developments could help reverse the current trend and support a move toward $1.50.
These include wider adoption of RLUSD, more tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger, increased institutional payment activity, continued expansion of the EVM sidechain, and the launch of lending tools.
If these developments gain real traction, they could bring more users to the network and provide stronger support for higher prices. However, for now, the data shows little sign that those catalysts have started driving network activity.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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