Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

22.7.2026 17:52

Index Dow Jones +0,32 % na 52390,54 b. S&P 500 +0,12 % na 7518,33 b. Nasdaq Composite -0,09 % na 25812,72 b.

Ve středeční seanci se americké indexy ze začátku mírně korigují, protože investoři jsou opatrní před zveřejněním klíčových zpráv o hospodaření společností jako Alphabet a Texas Instruments, které by mohly poskytnout další signály o obchodu s umělou inteligencí. Trhy se také soustřeďují na americko-íránský konflikt, jelikož obě strany pokračovaly ve vzájemných úderech již jedenáctý den po sobě. Začínají tak vznikat opět obavy z narušení dodávek ropy způsobených potenciálně se rozšiřujícím konfliktem na Blízkém východě. Bohužel, diplomatické jednání nepřineslo okamžitý pokrok. Americký prezident Donald Trump v úterý nabídl na nová jednání s představiteli Iránu  pesimistický pohled a uvedl, že Washington „nemá zájem se s Íránem zatím  setkat“. Dolar na páru s eurem  zatím opslabuje o -0,2% tj. 1,1414 USD/EUR.

V hledáčku investorů je stále ropa, která stále roste a dnes WTI přidává 2,4% a dostává se k úrovni 86,4 USD/barel. Jak ropa roste , tak se opět vynořují obavy investorů že energetický šok způsobený válkou by mohl vyvolat globální inflační výbuch a vlnu zvyšování úrokových sazeb centrálních bank. Tyto komentáře přicházejí v době, kdy média naznačují, že se mediátoři nadále snaží oživit diplomatické řešení íránského konfliktu, který nyní hrozí rozšířením do dalších částí Perského zálivu. Dnes byly také zveřejněny zásoby surové ropy a podle EIA zásoby vzrostly o 2,010 mil. barelů, když trh předpokládal pokles o 1,950 mil. barelů. Tato situace vyhovuje akciím v těžebním sektoru černého zlata a tak akcie těžebního obra Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) přidávají 1,5% a hned v závěsu jsou akcie konkurenta Baker Hughes ( BKR ), jež se posunují výš na tržní ceně více než 1%. Podobně si vedou také akcie Marathonu Petroleum ( MPC ) se ziskem více než 1% a také akcie britské skupiny BP ( BP ) se posouvají výš o více než 1,5%. Solidně si vedou také akcie APA ( APA ), které se přehouply přes 1% a také konkurenční akcie Occidentalu Petroleum ( OXY ) na tržní ceně přidávají cca 1,5%. Velmi slušně si vedou také akcie brazilského těžaře  Petrobrasu ( PBR ), jež se pohybují v kladném se ziskem 2,5%. Dnes přidávají na tržní ceně také akcie francouzského výrobce a dodavatele těžní techniky Schlumbergeru ( SLB ) o více než 2% a také akcie amerického konkurenta Halliburtonu ( HAL ) 0,6% a do této skupiny patří také akcie Chevronu  ( CVX ), které přidávají cca 1%.

S oslabením dolaru si dnes dobře vede žlutý kov, který přidává 1,4% a zlato se tak dostává l úrovni 4 138 USD/Troy. unci. Tato situace je tak příznivě nakloněna akciím v těžebním sektoru zlata a tak akcie největšího kanadského těžaře Barrick Mining ( B ) dnes zpevňují o 3,9% a hned v závěsu jsou akcie jeho amerického konkurenta Newmontu ( NEM ) s ještě větším  ziskem cca 4,5%. Za zmínku stojí také akcie známého těžaře Eldorado Gold ( EGO ), jež se posunují výš o 6,7%.

Za pozornost investorů stojí dnes tabáková skupina Philip Morris ( PM ) vykázala zisk za druhé čtvrtletí, který překonal odhady díky robustním tržbám poháněným poptávkou po jejím nekuřáckém produktu. Náladu však utlumilo určité zklamání z jejího ročního výhledu. Tržby  společnosti meziročně vzrostly o 10,4 % na 11,19 mld. USD. Organické tržby byly meziročně vyšší o 7,6 %, zatímco trh očekával růst pouze o 4,91 %. Philip Morris celkově dodal 205,2 mld. jednotek produktů, což představuje meziroční růst o 2,5 %. Zisk na akcii meziročně klesl o 7,7 % na 1,80 USD, a to vlivem nepeněžního odpisu podílu v kanadské RBH ve výši 511 mil. USD (dopad 0,33 USD na akcii). Očištěný zisk na akcii naopak vzrostl o 15,2 % na 2,20 USD (bez měnového vlivu +13,6 %) a překonal očekávání trhu ve výši 2,04 USD. I když výhled byl opatrný, tak investoři pozitivně vnímají reportovaná čísla a akcie Philip Morris ( PM ) posilují na tržní ceně o více než 1,9%.

Své výsledky za 2Q. 2026 dnes představila také telekomunikační společnost AT&T ( T ) Čistý přírůstek postpaid mobilních zákazníků překonal průměrný odhad analytiků. Nad očekávání byl rovněž reportován očištěný zisk na akcii a očištěný zisk EBITDA. Akcie AT &T ( T ) se tak dnes těší z přízně investorů  a posilují o cca 3,2%. 

Index S&P 500 +0,12 % na 7518,33 b. Nejsilnější sektory S&P Změna Nejslabší sektory S&P Změna Utility +1,6 % Zbytná spotřeba -0,6 % Základní materiály +1,3 % Reality -0,2 % Energie +0,9 % Komunikační služby -0,1 % Nejsilnější akcie S&P Změna Nejslabší akcie S&P Změna Super Micro Computer (SMCI) +24 % TE Connectivity (TEL) -7,7 % Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB) +11 % GE Vernova (GEV) -6,9 % Dell Technologies (DELL) +9,6 % ServiceNow (NOW) -4,9 % EQT Corp (EQT) +6,9 % PTC (PTC) -4,7 % CME Group (CME) +6,0 % DoorDash (DASH) -4,7 %
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Prohlášení

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (NYSE: XOM) will release its second quarter 2026 financial results on Friday, July 31, 2026. The company will issue a press rel

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The Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF (NASDAQ:COWZ) just got a real-time stress test of its free-cash-flow screen, and the energy sleeve did exactly what it was built to do. Brent crude jumped from about $72 on July 7 to nearly $82 by July 13, a nearly 14% five-day rip that pulled COWZ up alongside Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM | XOM Price Prediction) and the rest of the sector. COWZ now sits at $65, up roughly 8% year to date and about 18% over the past year, with the fund’s roughly 16% energy weighting doing much of the heavy lifting.

Why This ETF Deserves a Second Look Right Now COWZ screens the Russell 1000 for the 100 highest free-cash-flow-yielding names, which is why the portfolio looks nothing like a market-cap index. The top slots skew toward QUALCOMM at 2.67%, ConocoPhillips at 2.17%, and CVS Health at 2.16%, with energy dominating any cluster analysis. The fund holds $18.2 billion in net assets spread across roughly 100 positions, and the energy sleeve reaches from upstream producers into refiners and oilfield services names.

Exxon itself is the cleanest read-through on why cash-cow names are working. XOM generated $8.77 billion in underlying earnings in Q1 2026, funded $4.9 billion of buybacks in the quarter against a $20 billion full-year authorization, and rose about 6% in the week Brent spiked. That is the archetype COWZ tries to systematize.

The Macro Factor That Matters Most: Brent and the Strait of Hormuz The single macro variable to monitor over the next 12 months is Brent crude, and specifically the Middle East supply premium embedded in it. The EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook noted that Brent averaged $117 per barrel in April after the Strait of Hormuz closure, with daily prices reaching $138 on April 7. Prices have since fallen back to the low-$80s, meaning any renewed disruption resets the entire energy sleeve higher in days, not months.

Watch Brent’s ability to hold above $75. Below that level, upstream free-cash-flow yields compress and the COWZ rebalance methodology can rotate energy names out. Above $90, refining margins tighten but upstream cash generation dominates. The best sources are the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report (Wednesdays) and its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, which is where surplus OPEC capacity and unplanned outage data get updated. Check weekly, and add event-driven checks whenever Hormuz headlines flare. XOM already booked $706 million in Q1 losses tied to Middle East supply disruptions, a reminder that the same geopolitics that boost prices also break operations.

The Fund-Specific Factor: The Quarterly Rebalance The variable most investors underweight is COWZ’s rebalancing mechanic. The index reconstitutes quarterly using trailing free-cash-flow yield, which means a sustained energy rally lifts the sector’s FCF yields, then triggers larger energy weightings at the next rebalance. That is how COWZ ended up with double-digit energy exposure in the first place. The reverse is also true: if Brent slips back into the $60s and free cash flow at names like Diamondback (1.98%) or Marathon Petroleum (1.78%) compresses, those weights shrink at the next reset.

Monitor the rebalance disclosures on Pacer’s fact sheet. Sector weight shifts of more than 2 percentage points quarter over quarter are the meaningful signal. If energy weighting drops below 12%, the fund’s beta to oil falls materially, and holders relying on COWZ as a stealth energy proxy should know that before it happens.

What to Watch From Here If Brent stays above $75 through the fall, COWZ’s next rebalance likely reinforces the energy tilt that just paid off, and XOM’s $20 billion buyback keeps compounding the cash-return story. If Brent breaks the low-$70s and holds, expect the rebalance to rotate weight toward staples and healthcare, and expect the fund’s correlation to crude to drop with it.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Make no mistake: ExxonMobil (XOM 0.40%) remains the epitome of "big oil." The energy giant is one of the world's largest integrated oil and gas companies, with exploration projects, refineries, and retail energy operations worldwide.

However, while the "green wave" investing trend has lost momentum in recent years, don't assume ExxonMobil has completely abandoned its efforts to capitalize on it. Alongside efforts to maximize the profitability of its legacy business through measures like cost-cutting and a focus on high-return exploration opportunities, ExxonMobil has continued to commit billions to its "clean energy" projects.

Although these projects don't contribute much to the bottom line yet, in a little over a decade, they could become a secondary source of profitability for this blue chip dividend stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

ExxonMobil's lean, mean, hydrocarbon cash machine ExxonMobil has prioritized maximizing profitability in its legacy business. Why? For starters, the company wants to maintain its dividend growth track record. With 43 years of consecutive annual dividend growth under its belt, it's less than a decade away from becoming one of the Dividend Kings, or companies with over 50 years of consecutive dividend growth.

Alongside growing the dividend, which currently gives the stock a 2.9% forward yield, ExxonMobil also remains committed to another type of "return of capital" activity: share repurchases. Management is currently targeting $20 billion in annual buybacks. That's around 3.3% of the company's current market capitalization.

As share repurchases help increase a stock's underlying per-share value over time, ExxonMobil is, in essence, trying to maintain a mid-single-digit return baseline. Besides the return of capital, the company is trying to, as CEO Darren Woods recently put it, "produce more oil for less money," with another objective in mind. That would be to produce greater cash flow, not only to support dividend and buyback growth, but to fund ExxonMobil's "green pivot" as well.

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The longer-term payoff ExxonMobil's near-term objective for its efficiency efforts is to increase annual earnings and cash flow by $25 billion and $35 billion, respectively, compared with 2024 levels. Management anticipates hitting this goal by 2030. The company is ramping up profitability to sustain earnings and dividend growth and spur further price appreciation.

Over a longer time horizon, however, the company is also putting a lot of this cash into its "green wave projects." As part of its "2030 Plan," unveiled last December, ExxonMobil also announced plans to invest $20 billion in what it calls its "lower-emission investments" between 2025 and 2030, with 60% of this investment focused on reducing emissions for third-party customers. This includes not only investment in ExxonMobil's carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, but also in its Proxxima resin systems project, and in its budding low-emissions hydrogen and domestically sourced lithium.

Make no mistake. ExxonMobil isn't trying to "green" up its image by investing heavily in the business. Alongside sustainability, the oil and gas giant also sees financial opportunity. As the company's management believes these businesses could generate up to $13 billion in additional earnings by 2040, consider ExxonMobil's "green wave" wager as a secondary catalyst for the stock in the long term.

In short, buy this energy stock for the 2.9% dividend and 2030 transformation today -- and hold it for the next big transformation down the road.

Key Takeaways ExxonMobil can keep producing in the Permian as WTI trades above $80 per barrel.Lightweight proppant technology can boost ExxonMobil's well recoveries by up to 20%.ExxonMobil plans to grow Permian output to 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels this year. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) has a massive footprint in the Permian, the most prolific oil and gas play in the United States, and offshore Guyana. In the Permian, the integrated giant has been employing lightweight proppant technology and hence is capable of boosting its well recoveries by up to as much as 20%.

Let’s delve a little deeper into whether operating in the Permian is still profitable for the large integrated energy giant. According to the data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the shut-in price for existing wells in the Midland, a sub-basin of the Permian, is $42 per barrel. For Delaware, another sub-basin, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated the price at $34 per barrel.

With West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude oil trading above the $80 per-barrel mark, significantly higher than the shut-in prices, it makes sense for XOM to continue production in the wells. On the first-quarter earnings call, XOM mentioned that it is staying aligned with its plan of growing its production in the most prolific basin to 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels this year.

Will CVX & COP Also Gain From the Current Oil Price?Like XOM, Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) and ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) will benefit from the current oil prices. Let’s delve a little deeper.

With COP generating a significant proportion of revenues from crude oil, the prevailing price of the commodity is favorable for the leading upstream player to continue producing, much like other energy giants, such as XOM and CVX.

The upstream energy giant also has low-cost drilling opportunities across the Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken that could be successfully developed over two decades. Thus, the outlook for ConocoPhillips’ upstream operations looks bright.

Chevron, on the other hand, has been witnessing a growth in production volumes, thanks to its footprint in the Permian – the most prolific basin in the United States. CVX is thus well-poised to gain from prevailing oil prices as production makes sense in the Permian.

XOM’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of XOM have gained 28% over the past year compared with the 29.7% improvement of the industry.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, XOM trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA of 9.58X. This is above the broader industry average of 6.32X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM’s 2026 earnings has seen downward revisions over the past seven days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

XOM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

President Donald Trump said on Monday that the United States would reimpose a naval blockade against Iranian ships and their customers in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that handles roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas shipments.

Oil prices jumped sharply on the news. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed to $83 a barrel on Monday, up from about $71 a week prior.

Stocks, on the other hand, broadly sold off on the renewed tensions. The S&P 500 was down about 0.8% on the day, the Dow Jones Industrial fell 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped about 1.55%.

Trump announces "Iranian Blockade" policyTrump laid out the policy on social media, calling it "THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE." He said that the U.S. would stop only Iran's ships and customers from moving through the strait, while “All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait.”

He also said the U.S. would seek reimbursement equal to 20% of the value of all other cargo passing through, money Trump described as covering the cost of securing the region.

International pushback on transit feesThat part ran into immediate pushback from the international community. Soon after the announcement, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) -- the United Nations body that regulates global shipping -- publicly rejected the proposed transit fee, stating “there is no legal basis through which to introduce mandatory tolls simply to transit through a strait.”

Renewed conflictThe U.S. and Israel began military action against Iran on Feb. 28, effectively closing the strait and sending Brent to a high near $128 a barrel by early April. A June 18 peace agreement reopened the waterway and pulled prices back down -- Brent averaged $85 a barrel in June.

Now, that deal is unraveling. Over the weekend, U.S. Central Command said the military struck about 140 targets in Iran, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Monday it had hit U.S. bases in other Gulf nations.

Iran says the strait is again closed, while U.S. Central Command says it remains open to lawful traffic, stating, “U.S. forces are positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations.”

Should you buy oil stocks now?The case for oil stocks is obvious enough: supply is hamstrung, leading to a spike in oil prices. Producers like ExxonMobil (XOM +3.95%) and Chevron then get to pocket the difference.

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Here's my hesitation. This premium has already been baked in largely. Both stocks are up big this year as traders react to the developments in Iran and the rise in oil prices. They’ve also been seriously volatile after their initial runups, as each sign of peace and reignition of the conflict has led to big swings week to week.

To add to this, while supply is temporarily reduced because of the conflict, the long-term supply and demand trends don’t point in the right direction for oil stocks. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest projections, global production is expected to outpace use.

On July 10, 2026, ExxonMobil Holdings Corp (XOM) shares rose 1.0% today, bringing the current price to $138.88. The stock has experienced a 52-week range betwee

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10.07.2026 10:41

Energetické akcie patří letos mezi nejvýkonnější segmenty trhu a podle analytiků z maďarské Patrie může být ExxonMobil jedním z titulů, který z aktuální situace bude těžit i v dalších měsících.

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Key Takeaways XOM expects higher liquids prices to add about $3.5-$3.9 billion to Q2 earnings versus Q1 2026. ExxonMobil sees Energy, Chemical and Specialty Products margins boosting second-quarter earnings. Middle East disruptions hurt production, but supportive prices may still aid XOM's upstream profitability. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) , a U.S. oil and gas giant, has an integrated business model spanning upstream operations, refining and trading. The majority of its earnings are generated by its upstream segment. While the exploration and production business is vulnerable to fluctuations in oil and gas prices, the current business environment seems favorable for XOM’s upstream activities.

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global oil and gas flows, causing a major spike in crude prices, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark surpassing the $100 per barrel mark in May 2026. In its latest 8-K filing, ExxonMobil has provided an update regarding its second-quarter results. The company indicated that higher crude prices and the impacts of the Middle East disruptions are expected to boost its second-quarter earnings compared with the first quarter. In fact, XOM estimates changes in liquids prices to add approximately $3.5-$3.9 billion to its earnings compared with first-quarter 2026.

Moreover, the company mentioned in its filing that the Energy Products and Chemical Products segments are expected to benefit from changes in margins. The Energy Products segment is expected to gain between $2 billion and $2.4 billion, while the Chemical Products segment is expected to witness an increase between $1 billion and $1.2 billion. The Specialty Products segment is forecasted to add approximately $300-$500 million to its earnings compared with first-quarter 2026. The gains in refining and chemicals margins likely reflect stronger industry margins in the second quarter. However, ExxonMobil noted that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has caused production disruptions and operational shutdowns, partially offsetting these benefits. ExxonMobil is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on July 31.

The current market conditions, however, have changed significantly, and crude prices have retreated from the war-premium highs seen previously. Nevertheless, the current pricing environment remains supportive for ExxonMobil. Recent developments related to the conflict between the United States and Iran have again resulted in heightened uncertainty in global energy markets. The escalating geopolitical tensions may push oil prices higher in the near term, thereby supporting ExxonMobil’s upstream business. The company is well positioned to generate attractive upstream earnings and sustain its profitability, supported by its portfolio of low-cost, high-return advantaged assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana.

XOM’s Zacks Rank and Key PicksXOM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks from the energy sector are Cenovus Energy (CVE - Free Report) , Par Pacific Holdings (PARR - Free Report) and FuelCell Energy (FCEL - Free Report) . While Cenovus Energy and Par Pacific currently sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, FuelCell Energy carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.

Cenovus Energy Inc. is a Canadian integrated energy company with operations spanning the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors. The company is involved in exploration and production from its low-cost oil sands and heavy oil assets in Canada.  The strategic MEG Energy acquisition is expected to boost Cenovus Energy's production levels in 2026.

Par Pacific Holdings operates an integrated downstream energy business across the United States, with fuel retail operations in Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho, refining operations in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, and a supporting logistics network. Its refineries have a combined crude oil throughput capacity of 219,000 barrels per day and produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, marine fuels, asphalt, and other petroleum products.

FuelCell Energy is a clean energy company that offers scalable, reliable, low-carbon power solutions. It produces power using flexible fuel sources such as biogas, natural gas and hydrogen. The company’s proprietary molten carbonate fuel cell systems generate electricity through an electrochemical process instead of burning fuel, reducing carbon emissions and minimizing the environmental impact of power generation. FCEL is anticipated to play a crucial role in the energy transition by enabling industries and communities to shift from traditional fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives.

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Two Blue Chips, Two Very Different Stories Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO | KO Price Prediction) has spent the past decade doing what it does best: quietly compounding. The company refranchised bottling operations, bought Costa Coffee in 2019, added BODYARMOR in 2021, and rode Coca-Cola Zero Sugar into a growth engine (volume up 13% to 14%). Henrique Braun took over as CEO in 2026, inheriting a portfolio that just posted $47.94 billion in FY2025 revenue and a 64th straight annual dividend hike.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) took a wilder ride. Removed from the Dow in August 2020 during the oil crash, the company doubled down instead of pivoting green. CEO Darren Woods pushed the $60 billion Pioneer Natural Resources deal to close in 2024, drove Permian output to 1.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day (boed), and lifted Guyana output to 700,000 gross barrels per day. Total production hit 4.7 million boed in 2025, the highest in more than 40 years.

What $1,000 Would Be Worth Today Coca-Cola Exxon S&P 500 1-Year $1,221 (+22.12%) $1,275 (+27.51%) $1,202 (+20.16%) 5-Year $1,776 (+77.57%) $2,771 (+177.06%) $1,712 (+71.15%) 10-Year $2,512 (+151.17%) $2,330 (+133.00%) $3,505 (+250.53%) Both stocks beat the S&P 500 over one and five years, and both trailed it over a decade. Exxon’s five-year figure looks heroic, but remember the starting point: shares changed hands near $50.94 in July 2021, still bruised from the pandemic collapse. Timing did most of the work. Coca-Cola’s story is less exciting but more repeatable: low beta (0.35), consistent price appreciation, and a growing dividend that lifts total return every year. Neither figure above includes reinvested dividends, which would meaningfully sweeten both total returns.

Where to Put Fresh Money Coca-Cola is the choice today for defensive compounding, a 2.5% yield, and exposure to global unit-case volume growth. However, a 26 trailing P/E on a low-growth beverage business feels rich after a big year-to-date run.

Exxon is the way to go if advantaged Permian and Guyana barrels keep printing cash and the $20 billion buyback plan shrinks the float meaningfully. The risks are that oil prices can be cyclically elevated, or that Middle East disruptions (Q1 alone carried $706 million in losses) could become recurring.

In other words, Coca-Cola fits a sleep-well-at-night profile, while Exxon reads as a smaller cyclical tilt. The right mix depends on an investor’s risk tolerance and income needs.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM, XETRA:XONA) updated its second quarter 2026 earnings considerations after the market close on Tuesday, prompting UBS to slightly lower its earnings estimate while noting stronger quarter-over-quarter performance across the company's major business segments.

Following the filing, UBS reduced its second quarter earnings per share estimate to about $3.14 from its prior forecast of $3.20. The revised estimate is below the current Wall Street consensus of approximately $3.43 per share.

The analysts said the quarter-over-quarter improvement was driven primarily by higher crude oil prices, stronger refining margins and improved commodity chemicals margins.

UBS also said it had lowered its 2027 forecasts after its commodities team revised its oil price outlook. The firm now expects West Texas Intermediate crude to average $75 per barrel in 2027, down from its previous estimate of $80 per barrel.

Based on ExxonMobil's earnings considerations filing, UBS now expects upstream earnings of $8.63 billion for the second quarter, up from $5.7 billion in the first quarter and $5.4 billion in the year-earlier period.

The bank also raised its estimate for Energy Products earnings to $3.45 billion, compared with a loss of $556 million in the first quarter and earnings of $1.4 billion a year earlier.

For Chemical Products, UBS increased its forecast to $1.22 billion from $110 million in the prior quarter and $293 million a year earlier. Specialty Products earnings are now projected at $891 million, compared with $651 million in the first quarter and $780 million in the second quarter of 2025.

UBS noted that production disruptions related to the Middle East would reduce earnings by an estimated $700 million in the upstream business, $300 million in Energy Products and $200 million in Specialty Products, lowering total earnings by about $1.2 billion, or $0.28 per share.

"If these were to be treated as special items, earnings would be closer to $3.43 per share," the analysts wrote.

The firm also noted that ExxonMobil expects to record a $1.1 billion charge related to other items, including reserves, which UBS excluded from its clean earnings estimate.

In addition, UBS said timing effects would provide a $2.6 billion benefit to earnings. However, because those gains largely reverse first-quarter impacts, the firm included them in its clean earnings per share calculations.

ExxonMobil will report its Q2 earnings on July 31. The company’s shares traded hands at $140 on Wednesday afternoon, up almost 17% in the year to date.

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? Exxon Mobil (XOM - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

When looking at the last two reports, this oil and natural gas company has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 5.10%, on average, in the last two quarters.

For the last reported quarter, Exxon came out with earnings of $1.16 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07 per share, representing a surprise of 8.41%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $1.68 per share and it actually produced earnings of $1.71 per share, delivering a surprise of 1.79%.

Price and EPS Surprise

For Exxon, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Exxon currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.40%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner.

With the Earnings ESP metric, it's important to note that a negative value reduces its predictive power; however, a negative Earnings ESP does not indicate an earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

U.S. oil and gas major Exxon ​Mobil signaled on Tuesday that changes in ‌oil prices would boost its second-quarter upstream earnings by $3.5 ​billion to $3.9 billion.

For new and old investors, taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals. Zacks Premium provides lots of different ways to do both.

The research service features daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, all of which will help you become a smarter, more confident investor.

Zacks Premium also includes the Zacks Style Scores.

What are the Zacks Style Scores? Developed alongside the Zacks Rank, the Zacks Style Scores are a group of complementary indicators that help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.

Each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics. Just like in school, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on -- that means the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.

The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:

Value ScoreValue investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.

Growth ScoreWhile good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.

Momentum ScoreMomentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.

VGM ScoreIf you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.

How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock-rating model that harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to help investors build a successful portfolio.

#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +23.94% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.

But it can feel overwhelming to pick the right stocks for you and your investing goals with over 800 top-rated stocks to choose from.

That's where the Style Scores come in.

You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only has a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.

As mentioned above, the Scores are designed to work with the Zacks Rank, so any change to a company's earnings outlook should be a deciding factor when picking which stocks to buy.

For instance, a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one that boasts Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings forecast, and a much greater likelihood its share price will decline as well.

Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.

Stock to Watch: Exxon Mobil (XOM - Free Report) Over the past decade, ExxonMobil has undergone a significant transformation, reshaping its business to adapt to evolving energy demands, financial discipline and environmental considerations. Traditionally reliant on oil and gas, the company has streamlined operations and focused capital on high-return, low-cost projects. ExxonMobil has achieved nearly $15.6 billion in structural cost savings since 2019, strategically enhancing its earnings power and improving cost efficiency.

XOM is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.

It also boasts a Value Style Score of A thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 11.46; value investors should take notice.

Three analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.45 to $11.90 per share. XOM boasts an average earnings surprise of +6%.

With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, XOM should be on investors' short list.

Over the past several years, ExxonMobil (XOM +0.59%) has transformed itself into a lower-cost, higher-return business.

In essence, it's just become a much more efficient company.

Low-cost production in Guyana, disciplined spending, and the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources have positioned it to generate stronger profits across a wide range of oil prices. And that's why ExxonMobil now has a good chance of outperforming the S&P 500 during the second half of 2026.

Let's take a closer look.

Guyana is becoming a cash-flow machine Few oil discoveries in recent decades have matched the quality of the Stabroek Block.

This is the nearly 7-million-acre offshore oil and gas reserve off the Atlantic coast of Guyana, where Exxon and its partners continue bringing new production online.

Image source: Getty Images.

By the end of the decade, Exxon expects production capacity to reach approximately 1.7 million barrels per day, making Guyana one of the company's most valuable assets. Production costs there are among the lowest in the industry, which allows Exxon to remain profitable even during weaker commodity markets.

The Pioneer acquisition is beginning to pay off At roughly $60 billion, last year's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources was one of the largest energy deals in decades. And it was worth every penny.

Exxon now expects this acquisition to deliver more than $3 billion in additional annual earnings and cost savings, exceeding the company's original forecast by more than 50%. The acquisition also gave Exxon the largest contiguous acreage position in the Permian Basin, where production could roughly double to 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030.

Those aren't hypothetical opportunities. They're operational improvements that should continue showing up in earnings over the next several quarters.

Shareholders continue getting paid Exxon isn't just growing production. It's also returning enormous amounts of capital. The company plans to repurchase another $20 billion of stock during 2026 while continuing one of the longest dividend-growth streaks in corporate America.

Exxon has now increased its dividend for 43 consecutive years, placing it among a small group of companies that have consistently rewarded shareholders through multiple commodity cycles.

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Buybacks also create another advantage.

Fewer shares outstanding mean future earnings are spread across a smaller shareholder base, boosting earnings per share even if oil prices remain relatively stable.

Financial strength provides flexibility One reason I continue to favor Exxon over many other energy companies is its balance sheet. During 2025, Exxon generated $52 billion in operating cash flow and $26.1 billion in free cash flow, while returning $37.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company also maintains one of the lowest debt ratios among the integrated oil majors.

That financial strength gives management flexibility.

It can continue investing in Guyana, the Permian Basin, LNG, and emerging opportunities tied to growing energy demand without sacrificing shareholder returns.

Why Exxon can beat the market The S&P 500 isn't cheap.

Much of its recent performance is the result of a handful of technology companies, too, whose valuations already assume years of continued growth.

Exxon is different.

Investors aren't paying a premium for future possibilities. They're buying a company with incredibly valuable assets, rising production from some of the lowest-cost oil fields on Earth, billions of dollars in expected cost savings and efficiency gains, aggressive share repurchases, and a dividend that has continued growing for more than four decades.

Could oil prices weaken? Absolutely.

But Exxon needs oil prices to be dramatically higher to outperform. It simply needs to keep executing the strategy it's already following. Given the catalysts lining up over the second half of 2026, that's a bet I'd be willing to make.

Exxon Mobil (XOM - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.

Over the past month, shares of this oil and natural gas company have returned -9.8%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.7% change. During this period, the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry, which Exxon falls in, has lost 10.3%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?

Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.

Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.

We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Exxon is expected to post earnings of $3.98 per share, indicating a change of +142.7% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -5.6% over the last 30 days.

For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $11.9 points to a change of +70.2% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +2.1%.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $11.07 indicates a change of -7% from what Exxon is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +4.6%.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Exxon.

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.

In the case of Exxon, the consensus sales estimate of $98.89 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +21.3%. The $391.06 billion and $384.67 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +17.7% and -1.6%, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryExxon reported revenues of $85.14 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.4%. EPS of $1.16 for the same period compares with $1.76 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $81.49 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +4.47%. The EPS surprise was +8.41%.

The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.

ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.

While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Exxon is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Exxon. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

On CNBC’s Squawk on the Street this morning, Jim Cramer looked at the June jobs data and told Carl Quintanilla he cannot square what he is reading with what he is seeing. June payrolls printed +57,000, roughly half of consensus, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, a one-year low. For Cramer, the location of the softness is what rankles. Construction and manufacturing should be lit up, and they are flat.

“The biggest story in this country is the growth of the data center. Where is it in these numbers? Construction. Manufacturing, nothing,” he said, before invoking former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and adding that “we can’t take this seriously.” Then the money line. “I don’t know how to trust this.”

Cramer’s big disconnect If you believe capex plans from a handful of hyperscalers, the U.S. is in the middle of the largest private construction cycle in a generation, and the payroll survey is not picking it up. Cramer is not entirely making it up.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) raised its full-year 2026 capex guidance to $125 billion to $145 billion, up from the prior $115 billion to $135 billion range, and spent $19.0 billion in Q1 2026 alone, a 46.8% jump year over year. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is guiding Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue of $91.0 billion and sitting on $119 billion in total supply commitments, which is the accounting way of saying it has already promised to buy an enormous amount of stuff that other people have to build. Jensen Huang called it “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.”

You would expect that to leave a fingerprint on the establishment survey. Cramer says it does not.

Where are the data center jobs? His second complaint stretches beyond AI. “We have data center build, which is remarkable. And we have oil and gas, which is at a high going higher because of Iran. We have warehousing at an amazing numbers because of what’s going on with e-commerce. And we have little to no change in those jobs,” he said.

The oil piece is real. The EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook flagged a U.S. blockade against Iranian oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) just reported underlying Q1 earnings of $8.77 billion versus $7.58 billion a year earlier, with upstream production of 4.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day and first LNG cargo from Golden Pass Train 1 in April 2026. Details in the Q1 8-K filing. WTI is at $73.59 the week of June 26, off the April peak near $105.67, which is Cramer’s “inching toward 67” concern about China not soaking up idle Iranian barrels. Prices are moving. Employment in the sector, per the report, is not.

Data centers, once built, do not employ many people. Studies estimate the average data center employs about 43 workers per 100 megawatts, with the bulk of the labor concentrated in temporary construction crews. Construction payrolls have risen over the past three to four months but remain modest at around 11,000. So Cramer’s frustration is directionally right and quantitatively awkward at the same time.

The immigration angle Quintanilla surfaced the piece that ties this together. “We have and we’ve talked about labor supply getting pinched, right, because of immigration and a bunch of other things,” he said. Cramer took it further. “META’s putting together this plan because they can’t find enough workers to put to build data centers… Every single one of these companies is traumatized by trying to find enough workers.”

If that is true, the payroll survey may simply be misread. A weak headline number with a falling unemployment rate is consistent with fewer people available to hire. Private payrolls have now fallen for a third straight month, and BLS survey response rates have collapsed over the past decade, which is why the April and May 2026 payroll figures are still flagged preliminary and subject to revision.

Cramer’s read is one interpretation. But when Meta is flagging “employee compensation for technical talent” as a 2026 expense driver, Exxon is pumping at record rates, and NVIDIA has $119 billion of orders staged behind it, a headline of +57,000 with jobless claims still at 215,000 is worth reading twice before drawing conclusions about a slowing economy.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Exxon Mobil Corporation is upgraded to Buy as oil inventories hit multi-decade lows in both the US and globally. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve is now lower than the bottom level observed during the COVID pandemic. I expect the refilling of the inventory to start in the near 1–2 years and to catalyze an oil price rebound.

Exxon Mobil maintains a "Buy" rating with a $170 price target, supported by strong profitability and cash flow despite recent oil price declines. Q1 results showed resilient operational execution, with $4.2 billion in GAAP earnings, $8.7 billion in cash flow from operations, and disciplined capex at $6.2 billion. XOM's valuation remains attractive with a low PEG ratio and a 17x P/E multiple, though EPS estimates may normalize as oil prices stabilize.

It's often said that an old dog can't be taught new tricks. Folksy wisdom to be sure, but in business, it's evolve and lead or risk getting left behind.

When investing for the long term, market participants want to find companies that aren't just performing well today but are also making moves to position for long-term success. What the right moves are vary from industry to industry, but among oil stocks, ExxonMobil (XOM +0.20%) is a prime example of a name that's rewarding today and could be even more rewarding down the road.

ExxonMobil will look significantly different in the future and investors stand to benefit. Image source: Getty Images.

By the time the next decade starts, and certainly by 2040, the version of ExxonMobil investors see is likely to be starkly different from the one they see today. That could be a good thing.

Exxon evolution in full swing There are only so many ways to cook an oil production omlette. Exploration and production companies primarily drill offshore or on land in shale regions such as the Permian Basin in West Texas. Limitations on where oil is typically found don't cap producers' ability to evolve. Exxon confirms as much.

Already one of the world's largest energy companies, Exxon is fortifying that status by leaning heavily on technology to maximize cost-efficiencies across its primary assets, including Guyana, the Permian Basin, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sites. Exxon's tech prowess and realized efficiencies are paying off for investors. In its 2030 plan, the company forecasts annual earnings and cash flow increases of $5 billion WITHOUT increasing spending.

Here's the math: Exxon's 2030 plan lays out $25 billion in earnings growth and a $35 billion jump in cash flow from 2024 through 2030 with "cumulative surplus cash flow of roughly $145 billion through 2030." Again, the company is forecasting those impressive targets without the need for significant spending increases, but it told investors it expects the return on currently deployed capital to reach 17% by 2030.

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In other words, Exxon is becoming a leaner, "meaner" outfit. So the company investors potentially embrace is likely to look significantly different, in a good way, five to 15 years out.

What Exxon is doing today in the Permian Basin is proof positive of that assertion. In West Texas, Exxon is leveraging technology to more effectively keep well fractures open, boosting output along the way. It's possible that as the company deploys that technology across more wells in the region, it could add billions to what's already an 18-billion-barrel treasure trove.

One thing that won't change Those of us old enough to remember "new Coke" from the 1980s know change for the sake of change isn't always a good thing. However, if properly executed, Exxon's evolution has the potential to reward investors.

Bolstering the case for being patient with this energy name is the one thing highly unlikely to change: the company's commitment to being a stalwart oil dividend stock.

Exxon is the second-largest dividend payer in the S&P 500, and its payout has increased for 43 years. That level is matched or topped by just 5% of S&P 500 member firms. Dividends aren't guaranteed, but Exxon's operational prowess suggests its payout is safe and primed to grow, adding to the long-term buy thesis with this stock.

Key Takeaways XOM is seeking approval for up to 35 wells in four prospect areas of Guyana's Stabroek Block.The 2028-2033 campaign aims to find new deposits and assess their size and commercial viability.XOM topped 900,000 barrels per day in Guyana, with a fifth FPSO set for first oil in 2026. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) is planning a major expansion of its offshore drilling activities in the Stabroek Block and has applied to the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) in Guyana for a new appraisal program in the block. The Stabroek Block is considered one of the world's largest oil discoveries made in recent years. ExxonMobil is already advancing several developments at the Stabroek Block, including Uaru, Whiptail and Hammerhead.

The program involves drilling up to 35 exploration and appraisal wells across four prospect areas offshore Guyana. The drilling locations, however, have not yet been finalized. The exploration wells will help XOM discover new oil and gas deposits in this frontier, while the appraisal wells determine their size and commercial viability. The drilling campaign is expected to start in 2028 and continue through the end of 2033, alongside other drilling programs in the block.

Guyana’s EPA has stated that the exploration and appraisal program is not expected to have significant environmental impacts on its own. However, a cumulative impact assessment is required to assess the effects of all the drilling activities taking place in the region. The Stabroek Block offshore Guyana is one of XOM's most successful discoveries, and the company is continuously working to increase its production from the block. Notably, in the first quarter, ExxonMobil reached record production levels above 900,000 barrels per day in Guyana. Its fifth floating production, offloading and storage (FPSO) vessel in the country is slated to achieve first oil in 2026, expanding its daily production capacity.

XOM’s Zacks Rank and Key PicksXOM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks from the energy sector are W&T Offshore (WTI - Free Report) , Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY - Free Report) and FuelCell Energy (FCEL - Free Report) , each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.

W&T Offshore benefits from its prolific Gulf of America assets, which offer low decline rates, strong permeability and significant untapped reserves. The company’s recent acquisition of six shallow-water fields in the Gulf of America boosts its future production prospects and is expected to enhance its revenues. 

Galp Energia is a Portuguese energy company engaged in exploration and production activities. The company’s oil exploration efforts have yielded positive results, particularly with the Mopane discovery in the Orange Basin, offshore Namibia. This discovery allows Galp to expand its global presence with the potential to become a significant oil producer in the region. It is also involved in refining and marketing of oil products and natural gas marketing and sales.

FuelCell Energy is a clean energy company that offers scalable, reliable, low-carbon power solutions. It produces power using flexible fuel sources such as biogas, natural gas and hydrogen. The company’s proprietary molten carbonate fuel cell systems generate electricity through an electrochemical process instead of burning fuel, reducing carbon emissions and minimizing the environmental impact of power generation. FCEL is anticipated to play a crucial role in the energy transition by enabling industries and communities to shift from traditional fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives.

The midstream energy segment is standing out for its resilience as oil prices face downward pressure following this week’s landmark U.S.-Iran peace deal. WTI crude oil dropped 15.5% from June 10 through June 16, falling from $90.03 per barrel to $76.05 per barrel. While broader energy took a hit, midstream proved its defensiveness.

Key Takeaways Midstream energy infrastructure ETFs outperformed broader energy funds during a 15.5% drop in crude oil prices. The sector’s resilience is driven by fee-based business models and relative insulation from day-to-day commodity price moves.  Midstream ETFs provide attractive yields, with indexes for AMLP and ENFR yielding 7.3% and 4.7%, respectively. Defensive Strength in Midstream Energy Midstream’s recent stability highlights the segment’s tendency to hold up better than other subsectors during periods of oil price volatility. Midstream companies utilize fee-based business models, which means they display lower sensitivity to commodity price swings, supporting steady cash flows. 

It’s important to note that midstream’s outlook isn’t strictly tied to the front month of the commodities curve. Instead, the greater focus should be the forward curve, which producers use to determine capital expenditure budgets and future drilling plans. WTI crude futures for 2027 are roughly $10 per barrel higher than at the start of this year, albeit prices have dipped below $70 per barrel in recent days. 

While the broader Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) declined 5.0% on a total-return basis from June 10 through June 16, midstream ETFs proved more resilient. The Alerian MLP Infrastructure ETF (AMLP) fell just 3.6%, while the Alerian Midstream Energy Select ETF (ENFR) declined a modest 2.6%. ENFR benefited from defensive performance from large Canadian names and a greater tilt toward natural gas infrastructure.

Major integrated oil components dragged down broader funds, evidenced by Exxon (XOM) — which comprises over one-fifth of XLE’s total weighting — sliding roughly 4% in a single trading session this week and falling almost 6% over the period discussed.

Pockets of concentrated weakness did emerge within the midstream segment, particularly among liquefied natural gas (LNG) names. Venture Global (VG) and NextDecade (NEXT) underperformed during the recent multi-day pullback on peace talks as international LNG benchmarks fell. However, VG and NEXT are still up 63% and 38%, respectively, year-to-date through June 16 with the stronger backdrop for U.S. LNG exports.

Midstream Energy ETFs Offer Defensive Value Midstream’s defensive qualities include more stable cash flows and healthy yields. The generous income offered by midstream investments can help offset some market volatility.

The Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index (AMZI), which underpins AMLP, is yielding 7.3% as of June 16. AMLP is the largest MLP ETF and the second-largest overall energy ETF, offering concentrated exposure to energy infrastructure MLPs.

Meanwhile, the Alerian Midstream Energy Select Index (AMEI), tracked by ENFR, is yielding 4.7% as of June 16. ENFR provides diversified exposure to North American midstream energy infrastructure corporations and MLPs, operating as the lowest-cost ETF in the energy infrastructure segment. 

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For more news, information, and analysis, visit the Energy Infrastructure Content Hub.

vettafi.com is owned by VettaFi LLC (“VettaFi”). VettaFi is the index provider for AMLP, and ENFR for which it receives an index licensing fee. However, AMLP, and ENFR is not issued, sponsored, endorsed, or sold by VettaFi, and VettaFi has no obligation or liability in connection with the issuance, administration, marketing, or trading of AMLP, and ENFR.

The one big thing investors have learned from the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is that oil and natural gas remain vital to the world's normal functioning. This is why most investors should have some exposure to the sector. That said, the next year is likely to be complicated for the energy industry because of the lingering impact of the war.

I expect oil prices to fall back to where they were before the conflict in 2027, to around $60 per barrel for Brent Crude. However, getting to that point could be a bit of a rollercoaster ride, as industry fundamentals take center stage as newsflow from the conflict becomes less important. Here's how I'd invest in the energy sector today to prepare.

Image source: Getty Images.

The big picture view of the energy sector Right now, there is too little oil and natural gas to go around because the Strait of Hormuz has been shut down. The impact of that has been muted by companies and countries working down their oil and natural gas reserves. As the Strait reopens, oil tankers stuck on the wrong side will likely lead to a rush of oil hitting the market, but global reserves still need to be replenished.

So oil prices may fall initially, only to rise again as market fundamentals become increasingly important. This is basically what ExxonMobil (XOM 2.12%) and Chevron (CVX 2.31%), two of the world's largest energy companies, have been discussing for months. At this point, the U.S. strategic oil reserve is near levels last seen in 1983. That's a situation that has to be rectified, and it is just one example of what has been taking place around the world.

Brent Crude Oil Wholesale Spot Petroleum Price data by YCharts

At the same time, there have been fundamental changes in the global energy market. For example, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has left OPEC, freeing it from the production limits set by the group. Also, the United States has ramped up exports, and countries around the world may take an increasing interest in energy security. Then you have to take into account lingering demand changes as countries attempt to reduce energy use to address supply constraints from the conflict.

How oil moves will likely be different in the future, and there might actually be more of it, as the International Energy Agency just warned. That would lead to lower energy prices, but only after a period of elevated demand that pushes oil and gas prices higher. The energy sector could be volatile for a bit, and that assumes that the agreement to end the conflict holds.

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The best way to get your oil exposure While most investors should probably have some exposure to the energy sector, it is probably best not to attempt to time oil and natural gas prices. Sure, if oil prices rise, companies like Diamondback Energy (FANG 1.63%) and Devon Energy (DVN 2.07%) will likely benefit. It is also appealing that they operate in the onshore U.S. market, far from geopolitical tensions. But when oil prices fall, these producers typically get hit quite hard.

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A more conservative route is probably better. That's where energy giants like Exxon and Chevron come in. They have assets spread across the world and portfolios spanning the entire energy value chain. This diversification helps to soften the peaks and valleys in the energy market. In addition, they have the two strongest balance sheets in their integrated peer group. They are, basically, designed to survive the entire energy cycle.

The proof is Exxon and Chevron's dividends The strength of these two businesses shines through in their dividends, which have been increased annually for decades. Exxon, the larger of the two companies, has a dividend yield of 2.9% right now. Chevron's yield is 4%. While the most conservative investors may prefer Exxon, the extra yield Chevron offers today probably makes it the more attractive buy for income-focused investors. Either one, however, would be a good option for navigating what is likely to be an unusual year ahead in the energy market.

Listen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).

Editor’s Note: If you read Joe Austin‘s piece yesterday, you know the argument: the real AI money isn’t where everyone’s looking.

Today he’s back to prove it again, this time in a different industry entirely.

Same thesis, new terrain — and the opportunity is just as overlooked. Joe and Marc Chaikin are laying out the full picture on Wednesday, June 24, when they’ll debut the first AI-powered tool Chaikin Analytics has ever built.

But charter access is limited, so reserve your spot while you can.

Now here’s Joe…

The search for oil and gas never stops. And it never looks the same.

On Alaska’s North Slope, rigs operate in some of the most punishing conditions on Earth. In winter, temperatures routinely drop well into the negatives. Around the winter solstice, daylight can last as little as two hours a day.

The enemy is the environment. Low light, brutal cold, and encroaching sea ice shut down operations for nearly half the year. When your drilling window is that short, every hour counts.

Meanwhile, thousands of miles south, drillships in the warm waters off Guyana operate over the Stabroek Block — a deepwater tract that ExxonMobil Corp.’s (XOM) CEO has called one of the biggest oil discoveries in nearly two decades. The water here can be more than 6,000 feet deep before you even reach the oil reservoir. 

Everything costs a fortune, and nothing stops. The day rate for drillships runs between $400,000 and $500,000 per day.

Then there’s the U.S. shale patch.

In the Permian Basin and the Marcellus Shale, the challenge isn’t weather or day rates. It’s doing more with less. From late 2022 through late last year, the active rig count in the lower 48 states dropped by about one-third.

But over that same period, Permian production jumped 18%. Appalachia production increased 10%. And last July, the lower 48 states set a new monthly production record for crude oil.

Fewer rigs. More oil. That’s efficiency — and AI is driving it.

These are three environments with very different problems. But the solution is always the same: better technology. And right now, that means AI.

AI Is Reshaping Oil and Gas Drilling In Real Time — and the Results Are Measurable Across the oil and gas industry, AI is reshaping how wells get drilled.

The basic machinery has been around for decades: a derrick to support the drill string, a rotary system to spin the bit, a hoist to raise and lower equipment, and a circulation system to pump drilling fluid in and out of the hole. But what happens inside those systems has changed dramatically.

Sensors in the drill string now send live data up from the bottom of the hole while drilling is still underway. That gives engineers a real-time read on rock type, pressure, and well direction. Software tracks mud weight and chemistry in real time, catching pressure warning signs before fluids start flowing into the well uncontrolled.

Directional drilling lets crews bend the well path underground to reach targets thousands of feet away — making it possible to drill multiple wells from a single surface location. And as each section is drilled, it gets lined with steel casing and cemented in place. Evaluation tools verify the cement has set before the crew moves deeper.

For years, skilled operators and engineers managed all of this by reading data, making judgment calls, and adjusting on the fly. Now, AI is taking over that work. And the results are measurable.

The AI Revolution That’s Already Happening Where Nobody’s Looking Surface systems no longer just follow preset rules. They learn from live well data, make decisions, and adjust drilling parameters faster and more consistently than any human can. In one 2024 drilling program, an AI-driven system drilled nearly 50% faster than a manual crew.

Downhole, AI now interprets data from drilling tools in real time and adjusts the well path automatically — keeping the bit in the most productive zone without waiting for a geologist to weigh in. At a well in Ecuador, an AI system made 25 course corrections along a single well section, each in seconds. That well became one of the best producers in the country.

On the fluids side, machine-learning models can flag signs of a pressure imbalance 10 to 12 minutes earlier than conventional monitoring tools. And cement evaluation models that once required a specialist to manually read complex acoustic logs now run automatically, faster, and with better accuracy.

This is what physical AI looks like. It’s not a chatbot or a software upgrade. It’s machines making real-time decisions in conditions where a human mistake costs millions of dollars — or worse.

Where the Investing Opportunity Is: A Sector Flashing Bullish That Many Investors Are Ignoring Many of the companies driving this transformation fall under the energy equipment and services industry. These aren’t household names. They’re not the Nvidias or the Microsofts that get discussed on financial television every day.

But they’re doing something just as important: they’re making one of the world’s most capital-intensive industries dramatically more efficient. And the Power Gauge — Marc Chaikin’s 20-factor stock rating system — currently rates this corner of the market as “strong.”

Of the 58 stocks in the energy equipment and services industry that the Power Gauge tracks, 26 carry a “bullish” or better rating. Only one gets a “bearish” or worse.

I’ve spent 40 years on Wall Street. And I’ll tell you — when a less-obvious sector lights up like this, it’s worth paying attention.

The AI opportunity isn’t just in the big infrastructure names. It’s in the companies using AI to transform physical industries — oil and gas, mining, manufacturing, power generation. These are trillion-dollar industries that are just beginning to feel the full impact of what this technology can do.

A New Tool for Finding the Next Generation of AI Winners  Here’s the challenge: Finding the right stocks in these less-covered corners of the market is hard. There’s no shortage of companies claiming AI capabilities. The question is which ones have the real financial and technical momentum behind them — and which ones are just along for the ride.

That’s a problem Marc has spent his entire career trying to solve. And on June 24, we’re unveiling the most powerful tool he’s ever built to do it.

It’s called the Time Machine. It’s Chaikin Analytics’ first-ever AI-powered platform — and it works by scanning decades of market history to find stocks today whose fundamental and technical fingerprints match the early profiles of stocks like Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), and Meta Platforms Inc. (META), just before they made their biggest moves.

In backtesting, it surfaced stocks that went on to deliver gains of 995%, 1,406%, and 3,804% — all while the “seed” stocks they were matched against posted far more modest returns.

This is the first time Marc and I have shown this to anyone outside of Chaikin Analytics. Charter membership spots are limited, and this offer won’t be repeated.

If you want to be among the first to access the Time Machine — and see which stocks it’s flagging as the next generation of potential 10X winners — the first step is to reserve your spot for our free event on June 24.

Folks who sign up now get early beta access to the Time Machine before June 24, so you can start exploring the platform right away. No purchase required. Get on the list for that free broadcast here.

The oil and gas AI story is just one example of what the Time Machine is designed to find. The opportunity is much bigger than any one sector.

Exxon Mobil (XOM - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.

Shares of this oil and natural gas company have returned -11% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry, to which Exxon belongs, has lost 13.1% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?

While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.

Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.

Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.

Exxon is expected to post earnings of $3.96 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +141.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +2.9%.

For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $11.86 points to a change of +69.7% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +3.2%.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $10.66 indicates a change of -10.1% from what Exxon is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.5%.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Exxon.

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Revenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.

For Exxon, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $97.91 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +20.1%. For the current and next fiscal years, $392.6 billion and $383.52 billion estimates indicate +18.2% and -2.3% changes, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryExxon reported revenues of $85.14 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.4%. EPS of $1.16 for the same period compares with $1.76 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $81.49 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +4.47%. The EPS surprise was +8.41%.

The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.

ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.

Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Exxon is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Exxon. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.