Xcel Energy (XEL - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 30. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis utility is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.79 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +5.3%.
Revenues are expected to be $3.58 billion, up 9% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.58% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Xcel?For Xcel, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.32%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Xcel will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Xcel would post earnings of $0.91 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.91, delivering no surprise.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Xcel doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--On Thursday, July 30, 2026, Xcel Energy (NASDAQ: XEL) will host a conference call to review second quarter 2026 financial results. The earnings report will be released prior to the market open on the same date.The call will begin at 9:00 a.m. Central Time. To participate in the conference call, please dial in at least 10 minutes prior to the scheduled start and follow the operator's instructions.U.S. Toll-Free Dial-In: 1-800-715-9871U.S. / International Toll Dial-In.
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52-Week Range$66.56▼
$84.23Dividend Yield2.88%
P/E Ratio23.70
Price Target$91.06
Xcel Energy NASDAQ: XEL is dependable, predictable, and steady. In other words, it’s generally boring—yet analysts rate it a solid Buy.
Xcel is the kind of stock that income-oriented investors often overlook because it does not make headlines, and growth investors skip because it sounds like a bond substitute. Both groups might be missing something. The Minneapolis-based company is posting solid earnings growth, predictable guidance, and a steady long-term outlook.
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But with a well-valued price/earnings ratio, the stock is not for everyone. Investors should balance its dependable dividends and stability against its current valuation, execution risks, and limited near-term upside.
Xcel Thrives After Decades of InvestmentsXcel’s regional dominance has been built over decades. The current company was formed in 2000 through the merger of New Century Energies and Northern States Power, bringing together utility operations in the upper Midwest and Rocky Mountain West. Before the merger, Xcel operated as a classic regulated utility. It had steady dividends, predictable low single-digit growth, and a stock moved mostly by interest rate changes.
That picture began to change when the industry shifted in approach, and electricity demand surged. Xcel had been an early mover in renewable energy, turning to wind and solar alternatives ahead of many peers. The investments positioned the company well in states such as Colorado and Minnesota, where regulators began mandating decarbonization of electricity supply.
At the same time, the development of large-scale data centers in the company's service areas pushed new load growth to levels not seen in decades.
Today, the company serves 3.7 million electric customers and 2.1 million natural gas customers across eight states, including Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, and the Dakotas. Importantly, that geographic breadth also helps reduce the risk that a single statewide rate case could materially hit the overall business.
Capital Spending Planned for Long-Term GrowthThe push for additional energy generation in the region continues to spur the company’s growth.
Xcel has announced plans to pursue a $60 billion capital investment program through 2030, driven by electrification demand, data center growth, and the ongoing transition away from fossil fuels. The company has said it is targeting, among other things, electric grid expansion, renewables expansion, new generation capacity, and transmission infrastructure.
If approved by regulators, the build-out could significantly expand Xcel’s rate base and provide a strong path for earnings growth well beyond the current year. The company has set an earnings-per-share growth objective of 6% to 8% or above annually, an aggressive level for a regulated utility. The company’s compound annual growth rate already sits at 6.2% for its ongoing earnings per share since 2005.
The company also expects its dividend, currently paying approximately 59 cents per share each quarter, to continue yielding about 3% going forward. Given its projected earnings growth, the company said it expects annual dividend increases of 4% to 6%, continuing a 22-year trend of dividend hikes.
Strong Financial Results Support OutlookThe financial results have been tracking that plan.
First-quarter 2026 ongoing earnings were $567 million, or 91 cents per share, up 17% from $483 million, or 84 cents per share, in the same quarter a year earlier. GAAP earnings came in at $556 million, or 89 cents per share. The quarterly increase was driven by higher electric revenue and continued recovery of electric infrastructure investment through rates, the company said.
The company also updated its full-year 2026 earnings guidance to a range of $4.04 to $4.16, compared with $3.80 in 2025.
Overall, with electric generation providing three-quarters of its revenue, Xcel reported $4 billion in operating revenue in the first quarter this year, compared with $3.9 billion a year earlier.
Analysts See Limited But Steady UpsideOverall MarketRank™75th Percentile
Analyst RatingBuy
Upside/Downside10.4% Upside
Short Interest LevelBearish
Dividend StrengthStrong
News Sentiment0.77 Insider TradingN/A
Proj. Earnings Growth9.25%
See Full Analysis
That combination of income stability and visible earnings growth has impressed most analysts. The company currently has a solid Buy rating. Of the 17 analysts tracking the stock, 16 rate Xcel as a Buy, while one labels the stock as a Sell.
The 12-month average price target is around $91 per share, within a range of targets from $96 to $84. With a current price of about $80, the predictability of the company is clearly baked into the price range.
In fact, the stock’s steady climb is also evident in its history. Shares are currently trading approximately 5% higher than three months ago, 10% higher than the start of the year, and more than 20% higher than one year ago.
Investors Should Weigh the RisksDespite the current predictability and steadiness of Xcel, utility companies are never without risk. In the market, the utility sector competes with bonds for many investors, and interest rate hikes can hit valuations as well as borrowing costs for major projects.
In addition, Xcel's capital program is ambitious by any measure, and large capital programs are never guaranteed. Cost overruns, supply chain delays, or adverse regulatory decisions can lead to less recovery than management expects.
Wildfire liability is also a risk, especially with exposure in Colorado and other western states. Xcel has recognized this risk and formed a partnership with the National Forest Foundation in May this year, specifically to support wildfire mitigation and forest restoration.
Stability Remains Xcel’s Biggest StrengthXcel has a lot to recommend it. It’s a well-positioned, regulated utility with a reliable dividend yielding 3%, projected annual earnings growth of 6-8%, and a roughly 12% upside target from current levels.
For conservative investors, it also delivers a business aligned with long-term trends in electricity demand and a clean energy buildout. But it is well-priced, and appreciation could be slow.
In many ways, the company might be boring. But with steady accumulation and a multi-year horizon, Xcel’s income, growth, and its delivery of an increasingly essential product might be exciting enough.
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On June 17, 2026, we present a detailed DCF analysis for Xcel Energy Inc XEL , a company that has shown a price performance of +21.9% over the past year and +8.5% year-to-date. The current price stands at $78.98, which raises questions about its valuation based on our models. Here are some key points:
DCF Earnings-based intrinsic value of $48.47 vs current price ($78.98) indicates a margin of safety of -63.0%. DCF Free Cash Flow (FCF)-based intrinsic value of $-138.39 suggests a significantly overvalued status. GF Score™ of 81/100 indicates a reliable assessment of the company's financial health and performance metrics. What Is XEL Worth? DCF Earnings-Based Model To determine the intrinsic value of Xcel Energy Inc, we utilized a two-stage DCF model. The first stage accounts for growth over the next ten years, while the second stage reflects a terminal growth phase. Below are the assumptions used in our DCF analysis:
Parameter Value Current EPS (TTM, excl. non-recurring) $3.86 10-Year Growth Rate 6.3% 10-Year Treasury Rate 4.43% Discount Rate (ceil(Treasury) + 6%) 11% Terminal Growth Rate 4% In the first stage, we project that EPS will grow at a rate of 6.3% per year for the next ten years, which is then discounted at a rate of 11%. The calculated value for this growth stage is $30.66 per share. In the second stage, we assume a terminal growth rate of 4% for the following ten years, also discounted at 11%, resulting in a terminal stage value of $17.81 per share. The summary of our calculations is as follows:
Stage Description Value Growth Stage (Years 1-10) EPS growing at 6.3%, discounted at 11% $30.66 Terminal Stage (Years 11-20) 4% terminal growth, discounted at 11% $17.81 Intrinsic Value Growth + Terminal $48.47 With the current price at $78.98, the intrinsic value of $48.47 indicates that the stock is modestly overvalued, with a margin of safety of -63.0%. It is important to note that GuruFocus uses EPS excluding non-recurring items, as research shows stock prices correlate more closely with earnings than with free cash flow. For further details, you can visit the XEL DCF Calculator.
What Does the Free Cash Flow DCF Say? In addition to the earnings-based DCF model, we also conducted a Free Cash Flow (FCF) DCF analysis. The FCF-based intrinsic value calculated is $-138.39, which starkly contrasts with the earnings-based valuation of $48.47. This significant discrepancy highlights that the stock is significantly overvalued, with a margin of safety of -100.0%. The divergence between the two models suggests that investors should exercise caution when considering Xcel Energy Inc as a potential investment.
How Does GF Value™ Compare to the DCF Models? According to our analysis, the GF Value™ of Xcel Energy Inc is $67.23. This proprietary measure is calculated based on historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates. When comparing the three valuation models, we find that the DCF earnings-based model and the GF Value™ indicate that the stock is overvalued, while the FCF model presents an even more extreme valuation perspective. For more insights, you can check the GF Value™ page.
What Does XEL's GF Score™ Tell Us? The GF Score™ ranks stocks from 0 to 100 based on five key aspects: Financial Strength, Profitability, Growth, Valuation, and Momentum. Stocks with higher GF Score™ values have been found to generate higher long-term returns based on backtested data from 2006-2021. Below is the breakdown of Xcel Energy Inc's GF Score™:
Metric Rating GF Score™ 81/100 Financial Strength 4/10 Profitability 7/10 Growth 7/10 Valuation 6/10 Momentum 9/10 With a predictability rank of 0/5 stars, it indicates that the DCF model may be less reliable for this stock. For more information, visit the XEL stock page.
Key Assumptions and Limitations It is important to note that DCF models are highly sensitive to growth rate and discount rate assumptions. Stocks with low predictability ratings, such as Xcel Energy Inc, produce less reliable DCF estimates. The terminal growth rate of 4% used in our analysis is a simplifying assumption that may not reflect future market conditions accurately.
What This Means for Investors In summary, our analysis using the DCF earnings model suggests that Xcel Energy Inc is overvalued at its current price of $78.98, with an intrinsic value of $48.47. The FCF model further supports this view, indicating a significant overvaluation. The GF Value™ of $67.23 also aligns with the overvalued status. Overall, the consensus across all three models indicates that Xcel Energy Inc is overvalued at this time. For the full DCF analysis, visit the XEL DCF Calculator. You can also explore the GF Value™ page, or use the GuruFocus Stock Screener to find undervalued predictable companies.
Frequently Asked Questions What is XEL's intrinsic value based on DCF?
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Key Takeaways XEL offers a higher 2.99% dividend yield, while ETR's yield is 2.30%; both top the S&P 500's 1.41%. ETR plans $57B in 2026-2029 investments; XEL targets $60B during 2026-2030 for grid upgrades. Rising power demand, data centers and grid upgrades are shaping growth prospects for both utilities. The companies belonging to the Zacks Utility- Electric Power industry, supported by its regulated structure, are engaged in producing and delivering electricity to a vast customer base throughout the United States. The regulated structure enables these utilities to recover investments while earning predictable returns. They enhance shareholder value through consistent dividend payments and planned share buybacks, making them a reliable choice for investors. Utilities are actively advancing the energy transition by rapidly increasing their reliance on cleaner energy sources to lower emissions.
Electricity demand in the United States is rising, fueled by data center growth, AI workloads, transportation electrification, higher residential usage and industrial reshoring. Companies operating in this industry are making strategic investments in renewable energy, grid modernization and distribution network upgrades to meet rising electricity demand.
Amid the rising importance of transmission and distribution companies, let us discuss Entergy Corporation (ETR - Free Report) and Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL - Free Report) . These two electric utilities have major investments in infrastructure development and grid modernization, making them comparable in the utility space.
Entergy, with its regulated structure, is engaged in electric power production and retail distribution of power. The company operates 25,000 MW of generating capacity, of which more than 5,000 MW is nuclear, supporting millions of customers throughout the United States. It is aided by contracted industrial growth and long-term service agreements supporting revenues and future growth. The company’s strategic investments in infrastructure development and renewable energy expansion enhance service reliability and support long-term growth.
Xcel Energy stands out with its regulated structure that operates through four regulated utility subsidiaries and serves millions of electricity and natural gas customers across the United States. XEL benefits from expanding customer base and a rise in data center demand, supporting revenues and earnings growth. The company invests systematically to expand renewable assets and infrastructure development, which enhances operational efficiency and strengthens long term financial performance.
Entergy and Xcel Energy are among the leading utilities. Comparing their fundamentals side by side can reveal which stock presents the most attractive investment opportunity.
ETR & XEL’s Earnings Growth ProjectionsThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for ETR’s earnings per share is pegged at $4.40 in 2026 and $5.03 in 2027, suggesting year-over-year growth of 12.53% and 14.39%, respectively. ETR’s long-term (three to five years) earnings growth is currently pinned at 13.32%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XEL’s earnings per share is pegged at $4.11 in 2026 and $4.49 in 2027, suggesting year-over-year growth of 8.16% and 9.17%, respectively. XEL’s long-term earnings growth is currently pinned at 9.36%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ETR & XEL’s Return on EquityReturn on Equity (ROE) plays a significant role in measuring a company’s management efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds to generate profit. A higher ROE generally signifies that a company is using its shareholder funds efficiently to create value and drive earnings growth.
Entergy’s current ROE is 10.75%, outperforming Xcel Energy, which reports a lower ROE of 10.37%. ETR utilizes shareholder capital more efficiently than XEL.
ETR & XEL’s Dividend YieldDividends are regular payments distributed by a utility company to reward its shareholders, reflecting a commitment to delivering consistent returns on invested capital. It reflects the company’s earnings stability and strong cash flow.
Currently, the dividend yield for Xcel Energy is 2.99%, while that for Entergy is 2.30%. The dividend yields of both companies are higher than the S&P 500’s yield of 1.41%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Capital Investment PlansThe Utilities sector requires continuous investments in infrastructure upgrades and maintenance to ensure operational efficiency and support growing demand. These investments ensure service reliability and help avoid outages even during extreme weather conditions.
Xcel Energy aims to invest $60 billion during 2026-2030 for grid modernization, expand renewable generation and deploy advanced technologies. Entergy plans to invest $57 billion during 2026-2029 to serve rising customer needs and expand the generation, transmission and distribution network.
Price PerformanceEntergy shares have gained 19.4% in the past six months compared with Xcel Energy’s rally of 6.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Overall AssessmentEntergy and Xcel Energy both gain from a rise in demand for service, expanding customer base and robust capital spending to reliably serve millions across the United States.
ETR, supported by stable earnings per share growth, stronger ROE and better price performance, appears to be a more attractive choice in the utility sector.
Based on the above discussion, Entergy currently has an edge over Xcel Energy, though both presently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
U.S. utility Xcel Energy on Thursday narrowly beat adjusted profit estimates for the first quarter, as higher recovery of electric infrastructure investments and stronger sales helped offset warm weather and higher financing costs.
Xcel Energy (XEL - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.91 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate . This compares to earnings of $0.84 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +0.44%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this utility would post earnings of $0.97 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.96, delivering a surprise of -1.03%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.
Xcel, which belongs to the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, posted revenues of $4.02 billion for the quarter ended March 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.34%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $3.91 billion. The company has not been able to beat consensus revenue estimates over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Xcel shares have added about 6.7% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 4.2%.
What's Next for Xcel?While Xcel has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Xcel was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.74 on $3.62 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $4.11 on $15.91 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Utility - Electric Power is currently in the top 37% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, Fortis (FTS - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2026. The results are expected to be released on May 6.
This electric and gas utility is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.70 per share in its upcoming report, which represents no change from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.2% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.
Fortis' revenues are expected to be $2.44 billion, up 5.1% from the year-ago quarter.
For the quarter ended March 2026, Xcel Energy (XEL - Free Report) reported revenue of $4.02 billion, up 2.9% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.91, compared to $0.84 in the year-ago quarter.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of -4.34% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.2 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.91, the EPS surprise was +0.44%.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how Xcel performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Operating revenues- Electric and natural gas: $4.01 billion versus the two-analyst average estimate of $4.23 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +3%.Operating revenues- Natural Gas: $1.03 billion versus $1.08 billion estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -2.4% change.Operating revenues- Electric: $2.98 billion compared to the $3.15 billion average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of +5% year over year.View all Key Company Metrics for Xcel here>>>
Shares of Xcel have returned -1.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +12.2% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Key Takeaways Xcel Energy posted Q1 operating EPS of 91 cents in line with estimates; revenues were $4.02B.EL's electric segment revenues rose 4.9% to $2.98B, while natural gas fell 2.4% to $1.03BXEL reaffirmed 2026 EPS $4.04-$4.16 and plans $60B spend in 2026-2030 to add renewables, gas, storage. Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 operating earnings of 91 cents per share, which matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The bottom line also surpassed the year-ago quarter’s figure by 8.3%.
It reported GAAP earnings of 89 cents per share compared with 84 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Total Revenues of XELRevenues of $4.02 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.22 billion by 4.8%. However, the figure increased 2.9% from the year-ago quarter’s $3.9 billion.
XEL’s Segmental ResultsElectric: This segment’s revenues totaled $2.98 billion, up 4.9% from $2.83 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Natural Gas: Revenues in this segment decreased 2.4% to $1.03 billion from $1.05 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Other: Revenues amounted to $15 million, down 6.3% from the prior-year quarter.
Highlights of XEL’s Earnings ReleaseTotal operating expenses in the first quarter increased 1.2% year over year to $3.27 billion. The increase in operating expenses was due to the higher cost of natural gas sold and transported, and taxes other than income tax.
Operating income in the first quarter increased 11.4% year over year to $754 million.
Total interest charges and financing costs increased 20.4% from the prior-year quarter’s $309 million to $372 million.
In first-quarter 2026, Xcel Energy registered 0.7% growth in electric customer volume and a 0.8% increase in natural gas customer volume. During the quarter, natural gas sales volume improved 0.1% year over year, and electric sales volume increased 2.8%.
Courtesy of efficient management of services, Xcel Energy electric and natural gas residential bills are 29% and 11%, respectively, lower than the national average.
XEL’s GuidanceXcel Energy reaffirms its 2026 earnings per share in the range of $4.04-$4.16. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $4.11 per share, a tad higher than the midpoint of the company’s guided range.
XEL expects retail electric sales to increase 3% in 2026. Natural gas sales volumes are anticipated to increase 1% in 2026 from the year-ago level.
Xcel Energy expects long-term annual earnings per share growth of 6-8% and dividend growth of 4-6%.
The company plans to invest $60 billion in 2026-2030 to further strengthen its infrastructure. Xcel Energy plans to add 7,500 megawatts (“MW”) of renewable generation, 3,000 MW of natural gas generation and 1,900 MW of energy storage through the planned investment.
XEL’s Zacks RankXEL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Upcoming ReleasesWEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.31 per share, which implies an increase of 1.76% year over year.
The consensus estimate for WEC’s first-quarter sales is pinned at $3.21 billion, which indicates year-over-year growth of 1.91%.
Exelon Corporation (EXC - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 89 cents per share, which implies a decline of 3.26% year over year.
The consensus estimate for EXC’s first-quarter sales is pinned at $6.91 billion, which indicates year-over-year growth of 2.93%.
Eversource Energy (ES - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.59 per share, which implies an increase of 6% year over year.
The consensus estimate for ES’ first-quarter sales is pinned at $4.21 billion, which indicates year-over-year growth of 2.31%.
The Rose Income Garden (RIG) portfolio, with 73 dividend-paying holdings, yields 6% and is up 8.21% YTD, outperforming SPY. I view KO, WPC, and XEL as quality income holdings but consider KO and WPC overvalued, maintaining them as holds, while XEL is a buy on dips. GPC and KMB are undervalued with attractive yields; I have added to both, expecting future capital gains and reliable dividends.
Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Lumen?Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Lumen (LUMN - Free Report) earns a #1 (Strong Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.04 a share, just one day from its upcoming earnings release on May 5, 2026.
By taking the percentage difference between the -$0.04 Most Accurate Estimate and the -$0.06 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Lumen has an Earnings ESP of +27.27%. Investors should also know that LUMN is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
LUMN is part of a big group of Utilities stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Xcel Energy (XEL - Free Report) as well.
Slated to report earnings on July 30, 2026, Xcel Energy holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $0.80 a share 87 days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Xcel Energy is $0.74, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +8.16%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, LUMN and XEL could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're ReportedUse the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
On May 13, 2026, we delve into the DCF analysis for Xcel Energy Inc XEL , a company that has shown a price performance of +20.7% over the past year, despite a modest decline of -0.8% in the last week. This analysis will provide insights into the intrinsic value of XEL based on earnings and free cash flow (FCF) models.
DCF Earnings-based intrinsic value of $48.47 vs current price of $79.90 (margin of safety: -64.8%) DCF FCF-based intrinsic value of $-138.39 vs current price (second opinion) GF Score™ of 82/100 indicates a reliable DCF input What Is XEL Worth? DCF Earnings-Based Model The DCF earnings-based model evaluates Xcel Energy's potential future earnings growth over a 10-year period, followed by a terminal growth phase. The model assumes a current EPS of $3.86 and a growth rate of 6.3% for the first ten years, followed by a terminal growth rate of 4% for the subsequent ten years.
Parameter Value Current EPS (TTM, excl. non-recurring) $3.86 10-Year Growth Rate 6.3% 10-Year Treasury Rate 4.33% Discount Rate (ceil(Treasury) + 6%) 11% Terminal Growth Rate 4% The two-stage model consists of a growth phase where EPS grows at 6.3% annually for the first ten years, discounted at 11%, followed by a terminal phase with a 4% growth rate for the next ten years, also discounted at 11%.
Stage Description Value Growth Stage (Years 1-10) EPS growing at 6.3%, discounted at 11% $30.66 Terminal Stage (Years 11-20) 4% terminal growth, discounted at 11% $17.81 Intrinsic Value Growth + Terminal $48.47 With the current price at $79.90, the intrinsic value of $48.47 indicates that XEL is modestly overvalued, presenting a margin of safety of -64.8%. It is important to note that GuruFocus uses EPS excluding non-recurring items, as research shows stock prices correlate more closely with earnings than free cash flow. For further details, visit the XEL DCF Calculator.
What Does the Free Cash Flow DCF Say? The FCF-based intrinsic value for Xcel Energy is calculated at $-138.39. This starkly contrasts with the earnings-based valuation, indicating a significant discrepancy between the two models. The FCF model suggests that XEL is significantly overvalued, with a margin of safety of -100.0%.
How Does GF Value™ Compare to the DCF Models? The GF Value™ for Xcel Energy is $66.93, providing a third perspective on valuation. GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary measure that considers historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates. When comparing the three models, both DCF models indicate overvaluation, while GF Value™ also suggests that the stock is overvalued, aligning with the overall consensus. For more information, visit the GF Value™ page.
What Does XEL's GF Score™ Tell Us? The GF Score™ ranks stocks from 0 to 100 based on five key aspects: Financial Strength, Profitability, Growth, Valuation, and Momentum. Stocks with higher GF Score™ values have been found to generate higher long-term returns (backtested 2006-2021).
Metric Rating GF Score™ 82/100 Financial Strength 4/10 Profitability 7/10 Growth 7/10 Valuation 6/10 Momentum 10/10 With a predictability rank of 0/5 stars, it suggests that the DCF model may be less reliable for this stock. For further insights, visit the XEL stock page.
Key Assumptions and Limitations It is crucial to note that DCF models are highly sensitive to growth rate and discount rate assumptions. Stocks with low predictability ratings tend to produce less reliable DCF estimates. The terminal growth rate of 4% is a simplifying assumption that may not reflect future economic conditions accurately.
What This Means for Investors In conclusion, the DCF earnings model indicates that XEL is overvalued at its current price of $79.90, with an intrinsic value of $48.47. The FCF model further supports this view, showing a significantly overvalued position with an intrinsic value of $-138.39. The GF Value™ of $66.93 aligns with these findings, suggesting a consensus of overvaluation.
For the full DCF analysis, visit the XEL DCF Calculator. You can also explore the GF Value™ page, or use the GuruFocus Stock Screener to find undervalued predictable companies.
Frequently Asked Questions What is XEL's intrinsic value based on DCF?
earnings-based $48.47, FCF-based $-138.39
Is XEL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on the DCF and GF Value™ consensus, XEL is overvalued.
How reliable is the DCF model for XEL?
The predictability rank of 0/5 indicates that the DCF model may be less reliable for XEL.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Board of Directors of Xcel Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: XEL) today declared a quarterly dividend on its common stock of 59.25 cents per share. The dividends are payable July 20, 2026, to shareholders of record on June 15, 2026.
Xcel Energy Inc. Board Declares Dividend on Common Stock
Share Xcel Energy is a major U.S. electricity and natural gas company, with operations in 8 Western and Midwestern states. Xcel Energy provides a comprehensive portfolio of energy-related products and services to 3.9 million electricity customers and 2.2 million natural gas customers through its regulated operating companies. Company headquarters are located in Minneapolis. More information is available at www.xcelenergy.com.
This information is not given in connection with any sale or offer for sale or offer to buy any securities.
Statements in this press release regarding Xcel Energy’s business which are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see “Risk Factors” in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the most recently ended fiscal year.
The Board of Directors of Xcel Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: XEL) today declared a quarterly dividend on its common stock of 59.25 cents per share. The dividends are payable July 20, 2026, to shareholders of record on June 15, 2026.
Xcel Energy is a major U.S. electricity and natural gas company, with operations in 8 Western and Midwestern states. Xcel Energy provides a comprehensive portfolio of energy-related products and services to 3.9 million electricity customers and 2.2 million natural gas customers through its regulated operating companies. Company headquarters are located in Minneapolis. More information is available at www.xcelenergy.com.
This information is not given in connection with any sale or offer for sale or offer to buy any securities.
Statements in this press release regarding Xcel Energy’s business which are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see “Risk Factors” in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the most recently ended fiscal year.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260520928682/en/
May 21, 2026 10:00 ET | Source: National Forest Foundation
DENVER, Colo., May 21, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The National Forest Foundation (NFF) and Xcel Energy today announced a new partnership to support proactive wildfire mitigation and forest restoration projects across Colorado. The collaboration will focus on targeted fuels reduction efforts designed to protect communities, watersheds, and critical energy infrastructure from increasingly severe wildfires.
As wildfire frequency and intensity continue to rise across the West, fuels reduction and active forest management have become essential tools for protecting both people and infrastructure. Through this partnership, NFF and Xcel Energy will identify and treat high-risk forest landscapes near communities, transmission corridors, and critical water resources.
“The National Forest Foundation is honored to partner with Xcel Energy on proactive wildfire mitigation efforts across Colorado,” said Dieter Fenkart-Froeschl, President and CEO of the National Forest Foundation. “As the state faces more frequent and intense wildfire seasons, investing in healthy forests and strategic fuel reduction is essential to protecting communities, watersheds, infrastructure, and the landscapes Coloradans depend on every day. Investing in active management is one of the greatest gifts we can give current and future generations. It means safer forests, healthier landscapes, and stronger resilience to wildfire.”
“We have served customers and communities in Colorado for generations and fully understand the destructive power of wildfire,” said Hollie Velasquez Horvath, Vice President of Xcel Energy Colorado. “Our partnership with the National Forest Foundation to conduct fuel reduction and forest health projects in higher-risk regions will help protect the communities we serve, along with the infrastructure that reliably delivers power to them.”
Together, the National Forest Foundation and Xcel Energy are advancing a long-term commitment to healthier forests, safer communities, and greater wildfire resilience across Colorado.
The partnership’s initial investments will support two priority projects in south-central Colorado: the Rampart Range Road Fuel Break Project and the Clear Creek Reservoir Hazardous Fuels Project.
Near Woodland Park and Colorado Springs, the Rampart Range Road Fuel Break Project will establish a strategic fuel break along a heavily used recreation corridor within one of the most wildfire-prone areas of Colorado’s Front Range. The project area includes Xcel Energy transmission infrastructure and forests heavily impacted by mountain pine beetle infestation and hazardous fuel accumulation.
In Chaffee County, the Clear Creek Reservoir Hazardous Fuels Project will treat 235 acres near a critical water storage facility feeding the Upper Arkansas River. The project will help protect downstream water supplies, campground infrastructure, and nearby communities through selective tree removal and fuels reduction treatments. Additional project partners include Pueblo Water, Aurora Water, the Bureau of Land Management, and the Colorado State Forest Service.
About the National Forest Foundation
The National Forest Foundation (NFF) believes in a world where caring for forests is second nature. As the official nonprofit partner of the U.S. Forest Service, the NFF works to reduce wildfire risk, restore land and watersheds, and improve recreation access across America’s 193 million acres of National Forests and Grasslands. The NFF’s work is national in scope, local in practice, and generational in impact.
About Xcel Energy
Xcel Energy (NASDAQ: XEL) is a leading energy provider, dedicated to serving millions of customers with excellence. We make energy work better for customers, helping them thrive every day. That means always raising the bar — delivering better service and providing more reliable, resilient and sustainable energy.
Media Contact
Catherine Cody
National Forest Foundation
214.676.9063 [email protected]
On June 01, 2026, Xcel Energy Inc XEL shares fell 3.9% to a current price of $76.41. Over the past week, the stock has declined by 5.8%, and it has also seen a significant drop of 7.5% in the last month. The shares are trading within a 52-week range of $65.21 to $84.23.
GF Value™ verdict: Current price is $76.41, compared to GF Value of $67.04, indicating the stock is 14.0% overvalued. GF Score™ of 80/100, which reflects a strong overall score based on key performance metrics. Notable signal: Insiders sold $1.4M in shares over the last 3 months, with no buying activity. Is XEL Overvalued or Undervalued? The current market price of Xcel Energy Inc XEL at $76.41 is significantly above its GF Value™ estimate of $67.04, suggesting that the stock is overvalued by approximately 14.0%. This overvaluation indicates a potential risk for investors looking for entry points, as the margin of safety is absent. The GF Valuation label categorizes XEL as "Modestly Overvalued," highlighting that the current share price does not adequately reflect the company's intrinsic value.
GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary measure of intrinsic value, calculated from historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates. Given the current valuation, investors may want to proceed with caution, as the market may correct itself in the future, leading to potential declines in share price.
How Does XEL's Valuation Compare to Its History? Metric Current Historical P/E (TTM) 22.0x 21.2x Forward P/E 18.6x - The current P/E (TTM) ratio of 22.0x is 4% above its 5-year median P/E of 21.2x, indicating that XEL is trading at a premium compared to its historical averages. The forward P/E of 18.6x suggests expectations of better earnings in the future, yet the P/E analysis aligns with the GF Value™ verdict of being overvalued. This could indicate a mispricing in the market, which may warrant further scrutiny for potential investment decisions.
What Does XEL's GF Score™ Tell Us? Metric Rating GF Score™ 80/100 Financial Strength 4/10 Profitability 7/10 Growth 7/10 Valuation 6/10 Momentum 8/10 The GF Score™ of 80/100 indicates a strong overall performance across various metrics. The strongest areas are in profitability and growth, both rated at 7/10, demonstrating that the company has a solid capacity for earnings generation and expansion. However, the financial strength score of 4/10 signals potential vulnerabilities in the company's balance sheet. The valuation score of 6/10 further emphasizes the need for caution given the current overvaluation.
What Are Insiders Doing with XEL Stock? Recent insider activity shows that insiders sold $1.4 million worth of shares in the last three months without any buying activity. This pattern may suggest a lack of confidence among insiders regarding the company's share price or future prospects. Typically, insider selling can be viewed negatively by the market, particularly if there are no corresponding purchases to signal continued confidence in the stock.
What This Means for Investors Based on the GF Value™ assessment, Xcel Energy Inc XEL appears overvalued at its current price of $76.41 compared to the intrinsic value estimate of $67.04. Investors may need to be cautious of the current market pricing, as it may not accurately reflect the company's underlying performance, especially given the recent insider selling and modest financial strength indicators.
For the complete analysis, visit the Xcel Energy Inc XEL stock page. You can also explore the GF Value™ page for detailed valuation methodology, or use the GuruFocus Stock Screener to find similar opportunities.
Frequently Asked Questions What is XEL's GF Score™?
XEL's GF Score™ is 80/100, indicating that the stock has strong performance across key metrics relative to its peers.
Is XEL overvalued or undervalued?
XEL is currently overvalued, with a GF Value™ estimate of $67.04 compared to its market price of $76.41.
What is XEL's P/E ratio?
XEL's P/E (TTM) ratio is 22.0x, which is above its 5-year median of 21.2x, indicating that it is trading at a premium relative to its historical valuation.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Sustainability Report highlights stronger reliability, lower emissions and water use
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Xcel Energy (NASDAQ: XEL) is strengthening its energy grid with new electric generation and infrastructure to adapt to a rapidly evolving energy landscape, the company announced today in its 21st annual Sustainability Report.
Xcel Energy’s investments in a diverse and increasingly carbon-free energy portfolio aim to deliver reliable, low-cost energy service for all of its customers during a time of significant growth in demand from data centers, vehicle charging, electrified home heating, natural gas development and other areas of the economy that spur growth. As it grows the capacity and resilience of the grid, the company has reduced carbon emissions from the electricity it provides to customers 58% from 2005 levels.
“For more than 150 years, Xcel Energy has energized communities and built brighter futures,” said Bob Frenzel, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Xcel Energy. “Today, the increasing trend toward electrification is reshaping how we live, work and power our world. We are meeting this moment through advanced technology, disciplined investment and a steadfast commitment to reliability, affordability and sustainability.”
Xcel Energy’s carbon reduction progress comes as it navigates higher resource costs, supply chain constraints and a dynamic public policy environment, while keeping affordability for customers at the forefront. Since 2007, it has retired or converted 27 coal units without layoffs — and, consistent with state‑approved plans, is working to retire or convert its remaining units by the end of 2030. Electrification of a portion of the company’s fleet vehicles has prevented 700 metric tons of carbon emissions.
In addition, the company has reduced its water use related to the electricity it provides by 35% since 2005. Meanwhile, Xcel Energy outperforms the industry reliability standard, restoring 89% of affected customers’ power within 24 hours during active storm days, and has an overall electric service reliability of 99.98%.
“At Xcel Energy, sustainability is a long-term commitment reflected in how we operate — balancing reliability and affordability while supporting safety, economic vitality and environmental stewardship,” said Jeff Lyng, vice president of external affairs and policy and chief sustainability officer. “As expectations of the energy system grow and the way customers use it changes, so does our responsibility to lead with transparency and purpose. This report shows how we are delivering on our commitments, adapting as the energy system evolves and demonstrating progress at scale.”
Electric bills for Xcel Energy customers over the past five years were 29% below the national average and gas bills were 11% below the national average. The company has lowered customers’ bills through cost-effective wind and solar projects, saving customers approximately $6 billion through avoided fuel costs and earned tax credits from wind projects alone between 2017 and 2025.
In 2025, Xcel Energy provided $175 million in customer rebates and incentives through programs that enable customers to embrace energy-efficient lighting, appliances and more. Residential and commercial customers participated in saving 1,100 gigawatt-hours of electricity, enough to power 140,000 homes. The company also connected more than 200,000 households in need to more than $181 million in energy assistance programs offered by the company and by public sources.
Bringing jobs and investment to communities
Xcel Energy engages with community members, businesses, organizations and civic and political groups across the 1,600 cities and counties it serves to better meet residents’ energy needs, connect customers to programs that save money and energy, foster economic growth and build the future workforce.
The company helps the communities it serves prosper, working with landowners, developers, municipalities and economic development organizations to ease the path to locating or expanding businesses. Xcel Energy provides jobs for 11,500 people in the communities it serves. It spent $5.8 billion with small or local businesses in 2025, helped create 1,400 new jobs and spurred $7 billion in additional capital investment. The company’s economic development team closed on 15 projects across the eight states it serves, which will help grow industries such as data centers, aerospace and manufacturing. As one example, Xcel Energy announced it will power a new Google data center in Pine Island, Minnesota, that will contribute significantly to the state and regional economies, with a large buildout of new clean energy projects included in the agreement to bring Minnesota closer to its clean energy goals while ensuring existing energy customers benefit.
Together with the Xcel Energy Foundation, employees and retirees, the company gave back to its communities, donating $13.5 million. Its employees contributed $3.3 million in economic impact through volunteering for nonprofit and community improvement projects.
Read the full Sustainability Report.
About Xcel Energy
Xcel Energy (NASDAQ: XEL) is a leading energy provider, dedicated to serving millions of customers with excellence. We make energy work better for customers, helping them thrive every day. That means always raising the bar — delivering better service and providing more reliable, resilient and sustainable energy.
We are committed to leading the clean energy transition, meeting our customers’ need for more, cleaner power, while keeping bills as low as possible. Because the people we serve depend on us to power their lives.
Headquartered in Minneapolis, we work every day to generate and distribute electricity and gas to customers across eight states: Minnesota, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, New Mexico and Texas. For more information, visit xcelenergy.com or follow us on X and Facebook.
Utility deals rarely make investors lean forward. This one should. Xcel Energy (NASDAQ:XEL | XEL Price Prediction) just struck an electric service agreement with Google that rewrites who pays for the AI buildout, and it could become the template every hyperscaler and regulated utility copies for the next decade.
The headline: residential and small-business customers in Minnesota are projected to save approximately $1.10 billion over the life of the deal, with savings running up to $1.5 billion over 15 years. Google, not ratepayers, foots the bill for the new generation and transmission needed to power its 750-megawatt Minnesota campus.
The cost model just flipped In the traditional setup, a giant new industrial customer shows up, the utility builds wires and power plants, and everyone’s bill drifts higher to pay for it. CEO Bob Frenzel’s Google arrangement inverts that. Google pays all infrastructure costs, full transmission rates without economic development discounts, and funds all new generation including wind, solar, and large-scale batteries. The deal includes a proposed Clean Energy Accelerator Charge covering 1,900 MW of clean energy resources, with Xcel also partnering with privately held Form Energy to build “the largest long-duration energy storage project” as part of the package.
Frenzel framed the partnership this way on the Q1 call: “Our data center agreement in the Upper Midwest with Google in the quarter sets a high bar for ongoing community development and investment for data centers – protecting residential bills, advancing sustainability goals, and preserving precious water resources in the local community.”
Xcel grows its rate base aggressively without the political backlash that comes when ratepayers subsidize a hyperscaler. Residential transmission costs actually fall by 1 to 2% over 15 years.
A $60 billion capital plan looking for a thesis Xcel raised its five-year capital plan by 33% to $60 billion, funded by $30.2 billion from cash from operations, $22.8 billion in new debt, and $7 billion in equity issuances. The allocation skews toward exactly the assets data centers need: $15.4 billion for electric transmission, $13.9 billion for renewables, $13.7 billion for distribution, and $9.5 billion for generation.
The demand signal is visible in the income statement. Q1 2026 ongoing EPS came in at $0.91 versus $0.84 versus a year prior, on revenue of $4.021 billion, with weather-normalized C&I sales growth of 4.3% and SPS C&I growth of 10.8% driven by Permian Basin oil and gas activity. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 and a long-term EPS growth target of 6% to 8%+ off a $3.80 base. The details are in the Q1 earnings release.
XEL trades around $77.77, up 17% over the past year, at a forward P/E near 19 with a 2.96% dividend yield. The analyst target sits at $91.39.
What this does for Google Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is on a different scale of buildout. Q1 2026 capex hit $35.67 billion, with full-year guidance of $175B-$185B. Google Cloud revenue grew 63% YoY to $20.03B, with backlog approaching $460B.
Locking in clean power on terms regulators and local communities will accept is now a strategic moat. Every quarter spent fighting siting battles is a quarter NVIDIA chips sit on a loading dock instead of training Gemini. GOOGL has run up 122% over the past year to $372.19, and our composite sentiment read on the stock is bullish at 72.
I’ve held Alphabet since April 2012, and the pattern that keeps mattering is the company’s willingness to write big infrastructure checks while everyone else debates AI ROI. Frenzel’s deal turns the most contentious externality of that buildout, ratepayer pain, into a community win.
What to watch next The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission still has to bless the Clean Energy Accelerator Charge. Frenzel hinted more deals are coming: “Our partnership with Google took a strong step forward in the quarter, and we look forward to advancing more projects in the near future.” If this template gets replicated across Colorado, Texas, and the other six states Xcel serves, the $60 billion capital plan is just the floor. For utility investors hunting AI exposure without paying NVIDIA multiples, that is the trade worth studying.
I maintain a hold rating on Xcel Energy Inc., as valuation remains near the high end of historical norms due to improved growth prospects. XEL's expanded $60B capital plan and data center contracts are driving a projected 9% annual EPS growth through 2030. Affordability backlash and regulatory pushback on allowed returns, especially in Colorado and Minnesota, are key risks to the growth thesis.
Xcel Energy (XEL) is well-positioned to benefit from surging U.S. electrical demand, driven by data centers, industrial growth, and electrification trends. XEL's $60 billion capex plan (2026–2030) targets 11% annual rate base growth, supporting a projected 9.6% annual EPS growth through 2028. Trading at a forward PE of 19.3, XEL is seen as a quality utility at a fair price, with 20% upside potential by 2027 and 11% annual returns through 2031.
