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Vitesse (VTS) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

Oil stocks are having a moment due to rising crude prices amid global tensions. The State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP 2.73%) is up more than 30% so far this year.

Vitesse Energy (VTS 6.31%) is a non-operating oil and gas company. It calls itself a "Bakken ETF," though it isn't exactly an exchange-traded fund (ETF). It invests in companies associated with the Bakken Shale, which stretches across North Dakota, Montana, and the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Vitesse doesn't own equipment or manage heavy machinery and drilling operations; instead, it holds minority interests in more than 7,800 productive wells.

Image source: Getty Images.

Vitesse scared some of its investors when it announced fourth-quarter results on March 2, missing earnings targets and trimming its dividend. The stock, while it is up nearly 3% so far this year, is down roughly 13% from the 2026 high it touched ahead of the report.

This slump presents a great opportunity for investors, regardless of what happens in the Iran war. Here are three reasons why a long-term investment in this energy company could help make you a millionaire.

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1. Even after its payout cut, it has a high-yield dividend Some investors view the company's decision to slice its quarterly dividend by 22% to $0.438 per share as a smart move. It shows that Vitesse is being managed conservatively, with an eye on maintaining a strong balance sheet. Even after the cut, it delivers a whopping 9% yield at the current share price.

But how safe is the dividend now? Based on the company's free cash flow (FCF) per share of nearly $1.10, its FCF payout ratio is around 39%. That's plenty safe. On top of that, the company has hedged its prices on 64% of its oil production and 44% of its natural gas production, meaning that even if oil plummets later this year, it will get paid between $64 and $66 a gallon of oil on more than half of its contracts.

The company has a solid balance sheet as well. It has $124.5 million in debt, but its net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) ratio is only 0.69.

2. Vitesse's annual earnings made up for a down fourth quarter Vitesse reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02 in the fourth quarter, compared to $0.16 in the same period a year ago. Revenue was $53.5 million, up 4.8% year over year, but both EPS and revenue were below analysts' consensus expectations.

The reason given for the earnings drop was that the companies it invests in are spending more money by drilling more wells. This makes sense, since oil prices have been rising and drilling is becoming more profitable. In the long run, this should help Vitesse's business. And its yearly numbers were strong.

Vitesse reported 2025 revenue of $273.9 million, up 13% over 2024. Net income was $25.3 million, up 20%. The company, which just went public in 2023, has had total returns of more than 31% since then.

3. Its latest acquisition could be a game-changer Vitesse has consistently grown through acquisitions, spending more than $795 million on more than 200 deals. It is in the process of closing a $35 million all-stock deal to buy assets in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming. The assets, primarily operated by EOG and Continental, include more than 6,000 acres and 29 undeveloped locations. The company said it expects the deal to be immediately accretive to its bottom line, as those assets extract an average of 1,400 net barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The combination of the company's improving production, rising oil prices, and its high-but-safe dividend makes the stock a solid long-term choice, one that could help turn patient investors into millionaires.

Shares in Vitesse Energy (VTS 6.31%) were down by 6.6% at 12:30 a.m. today, only to recover a little later in the afternoon. The move comes as the price of oil corrected in light of President Trump's commentary on a constructive dialogue with the regime in Iran. While Iran has denied that any negotiations have taken place, investors are pricing in a more favorable outcome to the conflict, and one that could take the pressure off of oil supplies.

Vitesse Energy's business model offers some protection As an oil company with significant exposure to higher-cost oil in the Bakken formation (primarily North Dakota), Vitesse is sensitive to oil prices. Vitesse operates an unusual business model: it owns and operates only 9% of the wells in which it has an operating interest, with the rest coming from owning stakes in wells operated by other oil producers.

Image source: Getty Images.

The company uses hedging to protect against downside risk from falling energy prices (64% of its expected oil production in 2026 is hedged, as is 44% of its expected natural gas production).

In theory, the hedging strategy should isolate the risk in what the company does best: identifying, investing, and participating in productive oil wells in the Bakken. However, the reality is that oil producers, including the operators Vitesse invests in, will likely restrain activity if oil prices decline.

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Where next for Vitesse Energy Energy markets are likely to remain volatile, and Vitesse and other oil stocks offer protection until there is a firm resolution to the conflict; they are worth holding to protect a larger and broader portfolio of stocks.

Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vitesse Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Matador Resources (NYSE: MTDR - Get Free Report) and Vitesse Energy (NYSE: VTS - Get Free Report) are both energy companies, but which is the superior stock? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their earnings, analyst recommendations, institutional ownership, risk, valuation, profitability and dividends. Risk and Volatility Matador Resources has a beta

GREENWOOD VILLAGE, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Vitesse Energy, Inc. (NYSE: VTS) (“Vitesse” or the “Company”) today announced that it plans to issue its first quarter 2026 financial and operating results on Monday, May 4, 2026, after market close. Additionally, the Company will host a conference call on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Those wishing to listen to the conference call may do so via phone or the Company's webcast. Conference Call and Webcast Details: Date: May 5, 2026 T.

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues when Comstock Resources (CRK - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 5, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis oil and gas company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.23 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +27.8%.

Revenues are expected to be $505.22 million, down 1.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 10.26% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Comstock?For Comstock, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Comstock will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Comstock would post earnings of $0.11 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.16, delivering a surprise of +45.45%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Comstock doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

An Industry Player's Expected ResultsAnother stock from the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, Vitesse Energy (VTS - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $0.01 per share for the quarter ended March 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -95.7%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $69 million, up 4.3% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for Vitesse has been revised 125% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. However, an equal Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Vitesse will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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GREENWOOD VILLAGE, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Vitesse Energy, Inc. (NYSE: VTS) (“Vitesse”) today announced that its Board of Directors declared its second quarter cash dividend of $0.4375 per share on its common stock, payable June 30, 2026, to stockholders of record as of June 15, 2026.

ABOUT VITESSE ENERGY, INC.

Vitesse Energy, Inc. is focused on returning capital to stockholders through owning financial interests predominantly as a non-operator in oil and gas wells drilled by leading U.S. operators.

More information about Vitesse can be found at www.vitesse-vts.com.

More News From Vitesse Energy, Inc.

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Vitesse Energy (VTS - Free Report) reported break-even quarterly earnings per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.01. This compares to earnings of $0.23 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -100.00%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this energy company would post earnings of $0.1 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.02, delivering a surprise of -120%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.

Vitesse, which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, posted revenues of $67.41 million for the quarter ended March 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.3%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $66.17 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Vitesse shares have lost about 2.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 5.6%.

What's Next for Vitesse?While Vitesse has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Vitesse was favorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.01 on $76.6 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $0.14 on $297 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is currently in the top 5% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

One other stock from the same industry, EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) , is yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2026. The results are expected to be released on May 5.

This oil and gas company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $3.05 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +6.3%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 9.9% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.

EOG Resources' revenues are expected to be $6.2 billion, up 9.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Vitesse Energy offers a 9.6% dividend yield, supported by high free cash flow from its dominant Bakken non-operator asset base. VTS trades at a significant valuation discount to peers, with a clean balance sheet, low leverage (0.82x), and a recent acquisition now digested. Dividend was cut 22% to fund the Powder River Basin acquisition, but with higher oil prices and stable guidance, the current yield appears secure.