Vistra has spent nine months drifting lower while Wall Street piled up bullish price targets, and at least one major bank now sees a setup that looks nothing like the slow bleed playing out on the chart.
Vistra (NYSE:VST | VST Price Prediction) currently trades at $151.72, while the average Wall Street price target sits at $217.42. That gap implies roughly 43% upside, and one bank believes the stock could nearly double from here.
Vistra is one of the largest independent power producers in the country, running a nuclear, natural gas, solar and storage fleet alongside the TXU Energy retail brand. Wall Street has spent the past two years treating it as a pure-play beneficiary of the AI data center power boom, alongside Constellation and Talen. That is why the persistent 2026 drift matters. A stock that was supposed to compound AI demand has instead spent nine months moving backward.
A Slow Bleed From the Data Center Darling Trade Vistra’s decline has been a steady rerating of the entire independent power producer complex rather than a single blowup. Shares opened the year at $160.86 and are down 5.68% year to date and 18.87% over the past twelve months, well off the $218.91 52-week high.
The pressure points piled up quickly. Q2 revenue slipped 5.5% year over year to $4.02 billion, and GAAP net income was hit by $472 million in unrealized mark-to-market hedge losses. Management flagged that softer ERCOT forward curves were pushing 2027 EBITDA toward the low end of the $7.40B to $7.80B midpoint opportunity. Wholesale ERCOT prices sat around $30 per megawatt hour, a level CEO Jim Burke bluntly called “not going to get new stuff built.” Weather-driven weakness in the Texas retail book and lingering Moss Landing decommissioning risk added to the pressure.
Operationally, the fleet still delivered. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA jumped more than 30% year over year to $1.77 billion, and commercial availability held at 97% or better during Texas and PJM heat waves.
Why Scotiabank Sees Vistra Nearly Doubling The bull thesis has hardened rather than softened. Scotiabank carries the Street-high $298 target on VST with a Sector Outperform rating, implying roughly 96% upside. Analyst Andrew Weisel frames Vistra as the premier unregulated clean and firm power supplier positioned for the hyperscaler AI squeeze rather than as a traditional IPP. The four core pillars are scale (roughly 44 GW of capacity supplemented by the pending Cogentrix acquisition), co-location nuclear PPA upside benchmarked to peer Talen/Amazon and Constellation/Microsoft deals, ERCOT and PJM tightness, and downside protection from the retail book serving roughly five million customers.
Consensus is nearly as constructive. Recent catalysts include the Helix Digital Infrastructure JV with NVIDIA, KKR, and Kuwait Investment Authority, 20-year PPAs with Meta covering more than 2,600 MW at PJM nuclear sites, a 20-year AWS PPA at Comanche Peak for up to 1,200 MW, and Fitch’s upgrade of the corporate credit rating to Investment Grade. Those hyperscaler deals are the visible tip of a much wider buildout in power, cooling, and networking (we profiled seven of the suppliers behind it in a free AI infrastructure report). Analysts also point to roughly $6.5 billion of buybacks executed since November 2021, shrinking the share count by about 30% to roughly 336 million, with about $1.2 billion remaining under authorization targeted for completion by year-end 2027. Analyst targets are one data point, and the direction of recent revisions has been reiterations rather than cuts.
How the Merchant Power Peer Group Stacks Up Vistra has fallen alongside peers, and further than the closest names. Data center-linked IPPs have compressed together as ERCOT curves softened.
Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) trades near $299.05 against a $348.30 consensus target, implying roughly 16% upside. The Street is heavily bullish with 20 Buy-side ratings against 3 Holds, though CEG has already re-rated higher on its closed Calpine acquisition.
Talen Energy (NASDAQ:TLN) trades at $325.77 with a $459.94 target, implying roughly 41% upside. The stock sits well below its $451.28 52-week high, and 14 of 16 analysts rate it Buy.
NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) trades at $119.64 with a $188.75 target, implying roughly 58% upside. That is the second-largest consensus gap in this group behind VST, though a lone Strong Sell rating sits alongside 14 Buys.
The largest analyst-implied upside in the group belongs to Vistra, whether measured by consensus or Scotiabank’s Street-high. That is what makes VST the most dislocated setup among the merchant power names.
What the Numbers Actually Show Vistra currently trades at $151.72, down 5.68% year to date and 18.87% over the past year. Over the same YTD stretch, the S&P 500 is up 12.32%, roughly an 18-point relative drag. The consensus $217.42 target across 20 analysts implies about 43% upside, and Scotiabank’s $298 implies roughly 96%. Shares trade at a 25 trailing PE and 14 forward PE.
The analyst posture breaks down as follows:
Strong Buy: 4 Buy: 15 Hold: 0 Sell: 0 Strong Sell: 1 Where I Come Down on Vistra The bull case works if the Cogentrix close, the Meta and AWS PPAs, and the Helix JV convert into visible 2027 EBITDA above the current guidance midpoint, and if ERCOT curves stop deteriorating. That is the specific path back to $217, and potentially closer to Scotiabank’s $298 if co-location premiums at Comanche Peak get priced in.
The bear case takes hold if $30 per MWh ERCOT power becomes structural rather than seasonal, hedge-driven GAAP volatility keeps unsettling generalist investors, and hyperscaler contracting slows. Management is already guiding toward the low end of the 2027 range, so the bear case is not hypothetical.
On balance the setup skews favorable. Operating EBITDA is climbing, the contracted backlog is real, and the analyst gap is wider than any peer in this space. I lean constructive, with the caveat that this remains a volatile name where patient investors will likely fare better than tactical ones.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vistra Corp. is rated buy at $151.72, with a conservative fair value estimate of $161, based solely on core operations. VST's integrated retail and generation model, extensive hedging, and capacity revenues provide earnings stability and downside protection through 2027. Potential upside exists from data center deals, Helix, Cogentrix, and Meta contracts, none of which are included in the base valuation.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
The analysis is provided exclusively for informational purposes and should not be considered professional investment advice. Before investing, please conduct personal in-depth research and utmost due diligence, as there are many risks associated with the trade, including capital loss.
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Vistra's (VST +1.62%) stock closed at a record high of $217.02 per share on Sept. 22, 2025. That marked a whopping 556% gain over its previous two years, and was largely driven by the explosive growth of the power-hungry cloud infrastructure and AI markets.
But as of this writing, the power generation and retail electricity provider's stock trades at about $154. Let's see why it pulled back nearly 30% -- and if it's worth buying right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
What happened to Vistra over the past year? Vistra owns a broad range of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. It sells electricity to approximately five million customers through its retail subsidiaries, which include TXU Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy, Ambit, and other regional leaders. It has a capacity of approximately 44 GW, which is enough electricity to power 22 million homes.
Vistra's revenue rose only 3% in 2025, but analysts anticipate 29% growth in 2026 as it benefits from the soaring demand for electricity among data centers. They expect its EPS, which declined 69% in 2025 (mainly due to one-time accounting adjustments related to its hedges and its integration of Energy Harbor), to more than quadruple in 2026.
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However, two challenges weighed down Vistra's stock. First, it shut down a major portion of its Moss Landing battery storage facilities, which were damaged by fires in early 2025, instead of recommissioning them. Second, PJM Interconnection, which manages the power grid across the Mid-Atlantic and the Midwest, proposed new rules to cap electricity capacity prices.
However, Vistra has weathered numerous regulatory challenges and plant outages over the past nine years since its IPO. It will also remain locked into the expanding AI market through its data center deals with Meta Platforms and Amazon. Therefore, it still has a wide moat, a sticky ecosystem, and plenty of pricing power.
Does its pullback represent a good buying opportunity? For 2027, analysts expect Vistra's revenue and EPS to grow 5% and 8%, respectively, as its year-over-year comparisons normalize. At $154, it trades at just 15 times next year's earnings and pays a forward yield of 0.6%. At its peak, it was trading at 23 times its 2026 earnings.
So even though Vistra shed its "AI premium" over the past year, it's worth buying today if you expect data centers to gobble up more electricity. It won't grow as rapidly as companies that are more dedicated to AI infrastructure, but it's still a sound long-term investment.
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Over the past month, shares of this company have returned +4.5%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.4% change. During this period, the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, which Vistra falls in, has lost 2.8%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Vistra is expected to post earnings of $2.88 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +64.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -2.4%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $9.21 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +75.1%. This estimate has changed -0.4% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $10.5 indicates a change of +14% from what Vistra is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -2.6%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Vistra.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Vistra, the consensus sales estimate of $7.75 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +55.8%. The $23.36 billion and $25.91 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +31.7% and +10.9%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryVistra reported revenues of $4.02 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -5.5%. EPS of $1.8 for the same period compares with $1.01 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.29 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -36.17%. The EPS surprise was +16.88%.
Over the last four quarters, Vistra surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Vistra is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Vistra. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Greenland Capital Management LP purchased a new position in shares of Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) in the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm purchased 6,060 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $961,000.
A number of other institutional investors have also made changes to their positions in the business. BlackRock Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of Vistra in the second quarter valued at about $4,610,496,000. State Street Corp lifted its holdings in shares of Vistra by 2.7% in the fourth quarter. State Street Corp now owns 16,474,869 shares of the company’s stock worth $2,657,891,000 after acquiring an additional 432,028 shares during the last quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC grew its position in Vistra by 1.1% in the 4th quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 8,965,648 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,441,112,000 after purchasing an additional 97,424 shares during the period. Norges Bank purchased a new stake in shares of Vistra in the fourth quarter worth $746,729,000. Finally, Invesco Ltd. raised its position in Vistra by 0.8% during the 3rd quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 4,572,642 shares of the company’s stock valued at $895,872,000 after purchasing an additional 35,258 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors own 90.88% of the company’s stock.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In Several equities analysts have weighed in on VST shares. Mizuho started coverage on shares of Vistra in a report on Monday, August 24th. They set an “outperform” rating and a $169.00 price target on the stock. Seaport Research Partners reissued a “buy” rating and issued a $230.00 price objective on shares of Vistra in a report on Monday, June 15th. UBS Group decreased their price target on Vistra from $233.00 to $227.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Tuesday, July 28th. The Goldman Sachs Group set a $206.00 target price on Vistra in a research note on Wednesday, August 12th. Finally, Sanford C. Bernstein set a $187.00 price target on shares of Vistra and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 16th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, fourteen have assigned a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $223.53.
Read Our Latest Research Report on VST Insiders Place Their Bets In other Vistra news, Director Scott Helm sold 25,000 shares of Vistra stock in a transaction on Tuesday, June 16th. The stock was sold at an average price of $160.00, for a total transaction of $4,000,000.00. Following the sale, the director owned 232,200 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $37,152,000. The trade was a 9.72% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, Director Paul Barbas sold 244 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Monday, June 15th. The stock was sold at an average price of $153.00, for a total value of $37,332.00. Following the completion of the sale, the director directly owned 53,006 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $8,109,918. This trade represents a 0.46% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last three months, insiders sold 31,988 shares of company stock worth $5,178,427. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
Vistra Stock Down 0.0% Shares of NYSE:VST opened at $149.27 on Monday. The company has a quick ratio of 0.87, a current ratio of 0.97 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87. Vistra Corp. has a fifty-two week low of $132.66 and a fifty-two week high of $219.82. The company has a market cap of $50.10 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.21 and a beta of 1.40. The firm’s 50-day simple moving average is $149.39 and its 200-day simple moving average is $154.70.
Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.61 by ($0.85). The firm had revenue of $4.02 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $5.46 billion. Vistra had a net margin of 11.55% and a return on equity of 108.68%. As a group, equities research analysts predict that Vistra Corp. will post 9.21 earnings per share for the current year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Stockholders of record on Monday, September 21st will be given a dividend of $0.23 per share. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.6%. The ex-dividend date is Monday, September 21st. This is a positive change from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra’s payout ratio is currently 15.54%.
Vistra Company Profile (Free Report)
Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.
Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.
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Constellation Energy's nuclear portfolio is much larger, but Vistra has also locked in significant long-term demand from major technology companies. Constellation Energy expects base EPS to grow at least 20% annually through 2029, although that metric represents only part of total earnings.
Key Takeaways Vistra hedged 100% of 2026, 94% of 2027 and 72% of 2028 expected generation volumes.Vistra secured 20-year nuclear PPAs with AWS for up to 1,200 MW and Meta for over 2,600 MW.Vistra expects retail and contracted sources to contribute nearly 50% of EBITDA through the PPAs. Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) is strengthening earnings visibility through a disciplined hedging strategy that limits near-term exposure to volatile wholesale power prices. As of Aug. 3, 2026, Vistra had hedged roughly 100% of expected generation volumes for 2026, 94% for 2027 and 72% for 2028. This coverage supports its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8-$7.6 billion and the 2027 midpoint opportunity of $7.4-$7.8 billion.
Long-term power purchase agreements ("PPAs") extend this earnings protection beyond the hedge book. Vistra has a 20-year agreement with Amazon Web Services for up to 1,200 megawatts ("MW") from the Comanche Peak nuclear plant. In January 2026, the company also signed 20-year PPAs with Meta for more than 2,600 MW from its PJM nuclear fleet, including 2,176 MW of existing generation and 433 MW of planned uprates.
These contracts should improve the durability of Vistra’s earnings by converting more merchant generation into contracted revenues. Vistra expects the Meta and AWS PPAs, together with its retail operations, to result in nearly 50% of EBITDA coming from retail and contracted revenue sources. The Meta agreements also support potential 20-year license extensions and additional nuclear output, improving the long-term economics of existing assets.
Overall, Vistra’s combination of hedging and long-duration PPAs creates a more balanced earnings profile. Hedging provides near and medium-term cash-flow visibility, while contracted nuclear revenues can support plant investments, life extensions and capacity additions. This strategy should reduce exposure to commodity-price swings, improve capital-allocation confidence and support sustainable free cash flow and shareholder value over the long term.
PPAs and Hedging Support Stable Utility EarningsLong-term PPAs and hedging strategies help utilities stabilize revenues, cash flows and margins by reducing exposure to power and fuel price volatility. They also improve earnings visibility and support capital investment and long-term growth.
Other utilities like NRG Energy (NRG - Free Report) and NextEra Energy (NEE - Free Report) benefit from hedging and PPAs. NRG Energy uses forwards, futures, swaps and options under risk-management policies to hedge power, gas and fuel exposure. PPAs and other long-term contracts help stabilize cash flows and earnings.
NextEra, through Energy Resources, combines long-term PPAs with commodity hedges. This secures project revenues, limits price volatility and strengthens earnings visibility, supporting renewable and storage development.
The Zacks Rundown on VSTVST’s Earnings EstimatesThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra’s earnings per share for 2026 and 2027 indicates a decline of 3.56% and 6.08%, respectively, in the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST Stock Is Trading at a DiscountVistra is currently trading at a discounted valuation compared with the industry. Its forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 13.7X compared with the industry average of 14.78X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST’s Price PerformanceVistra’s shares have lost 14.6% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry’s decline of 10.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST’s Zacks RankVST currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
A. D. Beadell Investment Counsel Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) in the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The fund acquired 8,400 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,332,000.
Several other hedge funds and other institutional investors have also recently modified their holdings of the stock. Equitable Holdings Inc. raised its holdings in Vistra by 0.9% in the 3rd quarter. Equitable Holdings Inc. now owns 7,045 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,380,000 after purchasing an additional 61 shares during the period. UMB Bank n.a. grew its holdings in Vistra by 3.8% during the fourth quarter. UMB Bank n.a. now owns 1,770 shares of the company’s stock valued at $286,000 after purchasing an additional 65 shares during the period. Rothschild Investment LLC grew its holdings in Vistra by 2.9% during the fourth quarter. Rothschild Investment LLC now owns 2,409 shares of the company’s stock valued at $389,000 after purchasing an additional 68 shares during the period. Outlook Wealth Advisors LLC increased its position in Vistra by 4.9% in the first quarter. Outlook Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 1,511 shares of the company’s stock worth $227,000 after buying an additional 70 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Principle Wealth Partners LLC increased its position in Vistra by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. Principle Wealth Partners LLC now owns 14,462 shares of the company’s stock worth $2,333,000 after buying an additional 73 shares in the last quarter. 90.88% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
Vistra Price Performance Shares of Vistra stock opened at $137.45 on Tuesday. The company has a market capitalization of $46.13 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.22 and a beta of 1.41. The company has a quick ratio of 0.87, a current ratio of 0.97 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87. The stock’s 50-day simple moving average is $151.02 and its 200-day simple moving average is $155.34. Vistra Corp. has a 52 week low of $132.66 and a 52 week high of $219.82.
Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $1.61 by ($0.85). The business had revenue of $4.02 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $5.46 billion. Vistra had a return on equity of 108.68% and a net margin of 11.55%. As a group, analysts expect that Vistra Corp. will post 9.21 earnings per share for the current fiscal year. Vistra Increases Dividend The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Shareholders of record on Monday, September 21st will be paid a $0.23 dividend. This represents a $0.92 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.7%. The ex-dividend date is Monday, September 21st. This is a positive change from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.54%.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In VST has been the topic of a number of analyst reports. Scotiabank lifted their price objective on Vistra from $293.00 to $298.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Wednesday, July 15th. Zacks Research lowered shares of Vistra from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Tuesday, August 18th. Seaport Research Partners restated a “buy” rating and set a $230.00 target price on shares of Vistra in a research note on Monday, June 15th. Morgan Stanley lifted their price target on shares of Vistra from $212.00 to $227.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a report on Friday, August 21st. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group set a $206.00 price target on shares of Vistra in a research report on Wednesday, August 12th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, fourteen have given a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $223.53.
Check Out Our Latest Analysis on VST
Insider Buying and Selling at Vistra In other news, Director John R. Sult sold 6,500 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, June 18th. The shares were sold at an average price of $170.00, for a total value of $1,105,000.00. Following the transaction, the director owned 70,714 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $12,021,380. The trade was a 8.42% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, Director Scott B. Helm sold 25,000 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, June 16th. The stock was sold at an average price of $160.00, for a total transaction of $4,000,000.00. Following the transaction, the director owned 232,200 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $37,152,000. This represents a 9.72% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders sold a total of 31,988 shares of company stock valued at $5,178,427 in the last three months. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
About Vistra (Free Report)
Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.
Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.
Read More Five stocks we like better than Vistra Securing AI: 5 Most-Upgraded Stocks From the Q2 Reporting Season Insiders Are Betting Big on These 3 Healthcare Stocks 3 Stocks for Investors Who Still Believe Cash Is King Dollar General and Dollar Tree Are Recovering, But Not for the Same Reason Want to see what other hedge funds are holding VST? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report).
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James A. Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer, reported an indirect purchase of 2,000 shares of Vistra Corp. (VST +0.20%) on August 24, 2026 according to a recent SEC Form 4 filing.
Transaction summaryMetricValueShares purchased (indirectly held)2,000Transaction value$270,000Post-transaction shares~1.2 millionPost-transaction shares (directly held)61,690Post-transaction shares (indirectly held)~1,173,946Post-transaction value$167.63 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average purchase price ($135.00); post-transaction value based on August 24, 2026 market close ($135.66).
Key questionsHow does this acquisition align with the executive's current ownership structure?
The purchase was conducted through JAMEB, LP, the executive's primary holding vehicle, which now controls ~1.1 million shares. According to the filing, this partnership recently received a transfer of 436,173 shares from the CEO's direct holdings to consolidate the family's investment position.What is the breakdown of the executive's indirect equity interests?
The executive maintains a diversified indirect portfolio including 34,000 shares held by the James A. Burke 2012 Irrevocable Trust and 259 shares held by the Marti E. Burke 2012 Irrevocable Trust. These trust holdings, alongside the JAMEB, LP stake and a direct position of 61,690 shares, represent a total beneficial interest valued at $167.63 million as of the August 24, 2026 market close.What was the market context at the time of this executive purchase?
The purchase at $135.00 per share occurred just below the August 24, 2026 closing price of $135.66. The decision to increase equity exposure follows a 29% decline in Vistra Corp. share value over the 12-month period ending on the transaction date, signaling executive confidence at current valuation levels.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-08-21)$136.21Market Capitalization$45.9 billionRevenue (TTM)$16.0 billionNet Income (TTM)$2.2 billionCompany SnapshotVistra Corp. generates revenue through retail electricity and natural gas supply to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, while also operating power generation facilities that contribute to its diversified energy portfolio.The company operates a vertically integrated business model combining retail electricity distribution with power generation capabilities, organized across various operational segments to optimize operational efficiency and market penetration.Vistra serves a broad customer base encompassing residential, commercial, and industrial end-users throughout its service territories, positioning itself as a comprehensive energy provider across multiple geographic markets and customer segments.Vistra Corp. is a substantial independent power producer and retail electricity supplier with a market cap of $45.9 billion. The company leverages its integrated platform spanning generation and retail distribution to capture value across the electricity supply chain, maintaining a significant operational footprint.
Vistra's diversified geographic presence and multiple revenue streams from generation and retail operations provide competitive advantages in managing commodity price exposure and customer acquisition costs.
What this transaction means for investorsCEO James Burke's Aug. 24 purchase of Vistra Corp. stock is a noteworthy event for investors. It demonstrates his bullish outlook toward shares, and that acquiring at $135 per share represents a compelling buy opportunity. After all, he does not need to add to his hefty equity stake of over one million shares.
Vistra's stock fell near its 52-week low of $132.66 after the company reported second quarter earnings results. Its Q2 net income of $305 million included an unrealized loss from hedges of $472 million. This paper loss spooked Wall Street investors into selling off shares despite Vistra delivering over 30% year-over-year growth in ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA.
The company is also involved in a joint venture with Nvidia and others, called Helix Digital Infrastructure, which will provide power to data centers in support of the artificial intelligence boom. A bottleneck for AI market expansion is the limited supply of electricity needed to run data centers, prompting the joint venture.
Given Vistra's key role in energy production, rising AI demand, and the stock price drop, I can see why Burke is bullish on the company and jumped on the opportunity to add to his position.
Robert Izquierdo has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Vistra. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Key Takeaways Vistra has the edge on earnings growth, ROE, net margin and valuation, despite a heavier debt load.VST's 2026 earnings estimate implies 75.1% growth, while its current ROE stands at 108.68%.Vistra trades at 13.62X forward earnings and posts a 16.31% net margin, both better than CEG. Nuclear energy is gaining importance in the utility sector as rising electricity demand and clean-energy goals increase the need for reliable, carbon-free power. Unlike weather-dependent solar and wind resources, nuclear plants provide steady, around-the-clock electricity and require relatively less land for large-scale generation.
Against this backdrop, Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG - Free Report) and Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) stand out as major U.S. power producers with significant nuclear exposure.
Constellation Energy operates the largest nuclear fleet in the United States, with its plants maintaining an average capacity factor of more than 93%. The company’s nuclear assets provide dependable carbon-free electricity, while investments in clean hydrogen and energy storage further support its long-term growth strategy. Constellation Energy is expanding long-term clean-energy contracts with major customers. Its 15-year agreement with Walmart will supply nearly 176 MW of nuclear power from Dresden starting in 2029 and 2030, supporting uprates, grid reliability and long-term growth.
Vistra strengthened its nuclear portfolio through the 2023 acquisition of Energy Harbor. Its Vistra Vision subsidiary houses nuclear and other zero-carbon generation assets, positioning the company to benefit from rising demand for reliable clean power. Long-term PPAs remain central to Vistra’s strategy of expanding contracted earnings while retaining merchant exposure. Agreements with Meta and AWS should strengthen revenues, with some Meta-related benefits expected in 2027.
Both CEG and VST are well placed to capitalize on growing nuclear power demand. Let us compare their fundamentals, growth prospects and valuation to determine which stock offers the better investment opportunity.
CEG & VST’s Earnings Growth ProjectionsThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 75.1% and 14.01%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The same for Constellation Energy’s 2026 and 2027 earnings indicates year-over-year growth of 28.01% and 7.96%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Return on EquityReturn on Equity (“ROE”) is an important measure of financial performance that indicates how efficiently a company converts shareholder equity into profits. It highlights management’s effectiveness in utilizing invested capital to grow earnings and enhance shareholder value.
CEG’s current ROE is 14.89% compared with VST’s 108.68%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Nuclear Energy Generation CapacityConstellation Energy has a total generation capacity of nearly 31,676 MWhs at the end of 2025, out of which 22,069 MWhs, or 69.7%, came from nuclear energy.
Vistra has a total generation capacity of 43,641 MWh at the end of 2025, out of which 6,448 MWh, or 15%, came from nuclear energy units.
VST’s Net Margin Higher Than CEGNet margin measures the percentage of revenue retained as profit after deducting all expenses, taxes and interest.
VST’s net margin is currently pegged at 16.31% compared with CEG’s 11.39%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ValuationConstellation Energy currently appears to trade at a premium compared with Vistra on a Price/Earnings Forward 12-month basis. (P/E- F12M).
CEG and VST are currently trading at 21.8X and 13.62X, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Debt to CapitalThe capital-intensive Zacks Utilities sector requires substantial investment to modernize infrastructure, expand operations and adopt new technologies. Utilities generally supplement internally generated cash with external borrowings to fund these projects.
Constellation Energy’s long-term debt-to-capital currently stands at 37.16% compared with Vistra’s 76.13%. Both companies are using debt to fund their business.
Summing UpCEG and VST are major energy providers with substantial investments in clean and reliable energy generation, positioning them as key players in the clean energy transition.
Constellation Energy is currently using less debt than Vistra to run its operations. However, better earnings estimate movements, stronger ROE, a cheaper valuation and healthier net margin make VST more attractive.
Even though both companies currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), based on the above discussion, it is evident Vistra currently has an edge over Constellation Energy and is likely to offer better opportunities for investors.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Vistra has shed nearly 30% over the past year while one prominent Wall Street firm just slapped a target on it that implies triple-digit gains. The reasoning behind that call cuts against almost everything the market currently believes about power…
Vistra (NYSE:VST | VST Price Prediction) trades at $137.09, while the Wall Street consensus price target sits at $217.42. That implies roughly 59% upside from current levels.
Vistra runs one of the country’s largest merchant generation fleets, spanning nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage. Its pivot toward serving hyperscale data centers, headlined by nuclear deals with AWS and Meta and a new joint venture with NVIDIA and KKR, made the stock a marquee AI power name (we pulled together seven companies powering the AI buildout beyond the chipmakers in a free report here).
One Wall Street firm is looking well past consensus: Guggenheim’s Shahriar Pourreza carries a $300 target on VST, implying roughly 119% upside. The gulf between price and target frames the rest of this piece.
How a Data Center Darling Slid Under $140 VST has fallen for most of 2026. Shares are down 14.78% year to date and 29.93% over the trailing year, badly trailing the S&P 500‘s 12.82% YTD gain.
Q2 2026 revenue came in at $4.02 billion, down 5.5% YoY, and GAAP net income slipped to $305 million from $327 million. Those numbers absorbed $472 million in unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivative hedges. Underlying Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA climbed more than 30% YoY to $1.77 billion, with Texas segment EBITDA more than doubling to $311 million.
The real overhang is the 2027 outlook. Management flagged “meaningfully lower” ERCOT forward curves and said Vistra would trend toward the low end of its $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion 2027 EBITDA range, resetting expectations across the AI power complex.
Why the Bulls Are Not Backing Down Analysts see structural upside that a soft forward curve does not touch. Of the 20 analysts covering VST, 4 rate it Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. Recent action has skewed toward reiterations rather than cuts.
Guggenheim’s $300 call anchors the aggressive end. Pourreza’s thesis rests on long-term PPAs with hyperscalers seeking nuclear and gas generation, plus rising capacity market pricing across PJM and ERCOT. The commercial setup includes a 20-year AWS PPA for up to 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak, Meta PPAs covering more than 2,600 MW across PJM nuclear sites, the pending 5,500 MW Cogentrix acquisition, and the new Helix Digital Infrastructure JV with NVIDIA, KKR, and Kuwait Investment Authority, with Vistra as preferred power provider and up to $1.0 billion committed.
Management said Cogentrix and the Meta PPAs alone could add roughly $700 million to the 2027 EBITDA midpoint, both currently excluded from guidance. Layer in ~$1.2 billion in remaining buyback authorization through year-end 2027, plus 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion, and the analyst case reads as a growth story trading like a value stock. CEO Jim Burke told investors: “We are confident in our ability to deliver at or above the midpoint.”
Independent Power Producers Sold Off Together The peer group fell as a unit. Constellation, NRG, and Talen each surrendered more than 20% year to date alongside VST.
Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) trades near $276.75, down 21.31% YTD, versus a $348.30 consensus target for about 26% upside.
NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) sits at $111.12, off 29.54% YTD, with a $188.75 target implying nearly 70% upside. Ratings show 3 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 2 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell after a Q2 EPS miss tied to LS Power integration costs.
Talen Energy (NASDAQ:TLN) trades at $296.11, down 21% YTD, against a $459.94 target for roughly 55% upside.
The largest consensus upside sits with NRG, but Guggenheim’s VST call is the boldest single target in the group.
Numbers Behind the 59% Gap VST’s $217.42 consensus target against a $137.09 quote works out to roughly 59% upside, with Guggenheim’s bull case near 119%. Coverage is lopsided to buys: 19 of 20 analysts carry a Buy or Strong Buy rating.
VST is down 14.78% YTD and 29.93% over 12 months, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.82% YTD. Shares trade at a trailing P/E of 23 and a forward P/E of 16 on TTM EPS of $5.93. That is a modest multiple for a company guiding to over $6.8 billion in 2026 EBITDA.
Where I Land on Vistra Under $140 The bull case works if the AI power capex cycle stays intact and Cogentrix closes without material concessions. Free cash flow is real, buybacks compound at a depressed multiple, and the AWS, Meta, and Helix relationships provide visibility that pure merchants cannot match. In that world, Guggenheim’s $300 is aggressive but defensible.
The bear case takes hold if ERCOT forwards keep sliding into 2027 and hyperscaler capex pauses. VST’s 2028 book is only 72% hedged, so power price weakness bleeds into results. Mark-to-market noise, Moss Landing decommissioning costs, and Cogentrix integration remain live risks.
On balance, I lean cautiously bullish. Consensus $217.42 is the base underwrite. Guggenheim’s $300 is the reward for being early if data-center demand keeps pulling generation forward. Sub-$140, the risk-reward finally looks better than it did at $200.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vistra is evolving from a cyclical merchant generator to a diversified, contract-driven energy platform with improved earnings visibility. Long-term nuclear contracts with AWS and Meta, plus the Cogentrix acquisition, are expected to drive nearly half of VST's EBITDA and support capital investment. My base case targets $8.1B adjusted EBITDA and a 10.5% FCFbG yield, implying a value of ~$180/share and supporting a Buy rating.
Vistra's discounted valuation, strong ROE and capital returns offset earnings estimate cuts, debt and power-price risks after a six-month stock decline.
Peter Thiel's hedge fund disappeared from the stock market for six months. Thiel Macro, the firm that manages the billionaire's money, reported no U.S. long stock holdings at all for two consecutive quarters (the periods ended December 2025 and March 2026). Then, earlier this month, it filed a portfolio of eight names worth $418.7 million as of June 30.
One caveat belongs up front. A 13F filing covers only a manager's long positions in certain U.S.-listed securities. Short bets, futures, currencies, private stakes, and cash are all invisible to it. Those two empty quarters, then, don't mean Thiel's fund held nothing. They mean it held nothing the form counts.
Still, an empty stretch says something. And so does what the fund bought on the way back in.
Because the new portfolio has a theme. About 72% of it sits in companies that generate electricity, deliver it, or supply the fuel behind it.
Image source: Getty Images.
Six months of nothingIn the third quarter of 2025, the fund sold out of an Nvidia (NVDA -4.58%) position it had valued at $85 million three months earlier -- a sale that got attention at the time, landing amid a loud debate about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. That left its reported holdings at just $74 million across three stocks. The next two filings showed nothing at all.
Notably, the fund has gone years without filing at all, including a long stretch from late 2020 into early 2025. This was different. It filed the form both quarters and reported nothing on it.
Whatever the fund was doing during those six months, it wasn't holding U.S. stocks the form counts. The second-quarter filing is the first evidence of where Thiel wanted to be next.
Almost three-quarters of it is energyThe largest position is the one exception to the theme. It's a stake in e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN +3.97%) worth about $118 million, or 28% of the portfolio -- the fund's only technology holding, and a name it has owned before.
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Everything else is tied to energy or power, in one form or another. Vista Energy (VIST -0.67%), an oil and gas producer developing Argentina's giant Vaca Muerta shale field, is the second-largest position at about $76 million, or 18% of the portfolio. And merchant power producer Vistra (VST -1.95%), another returning name that the fund owned briefly in 2025, comes in at about $59 million, or 14%.
Then come four regulated utilities (steady, slow-growing dividend stocks), sized almost identically. American Electric Power (AEP -0.33%) is about $42 million, while DTE Energy (DTE -0.28%), FirstEnergy (FE -0.80%), and CMS Energy (CMS -0.20%) sit at about $40 million each (roughly 10% of the portfolio apiece). A small $3.7 million stake in X-Energy (XE -6.77%), a nuclear reactor developer that completed its initial public offering (IPO) in April, rounds out the eight.
Add it up, and the energy and power names come to about $301 million of the $419 million total -- about 72%.
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Power, not chipsConsider the sequence. The last big move this fund disclosed before its empty stretch was selling Nvidia, whose graphics processing units (GPUs) sit at the center of the AI trade. The first move it disclosed on the way back was buying the electricity complex that AI's data centers depend on. Taken together, the portfolio amounts to a view that the bottleneck in AI may no longer be the chips -- it's the power to run them.
And the way the bet is spread says something, too. This isn't a concentrated swing at one hot generator. It's the whole supply chain: the fuel, the plants, and (the part I find most interesting) the wires. Owning four regulated utilities, nearly equal-weighted, is arguably a bet that growing electricity demand can lift the entire grid, including its most boring corners.
Of course, investors should be careful about how much to take from any of this. A 13F is a snapshot that is already about 45 days old by the time it becomes public, and it says nothing about positions on the other side. After all, $419 million is likely a modest slice of Thiel's total wealth, and he could be positioned differently by now.
Still, the shape of the portfolio is hard to miss. A technology billionaire's fund came back from six months of nothing, and seven of its eight buys were energy. Whether or not anyone should copy the positions, the view behind them is clear: the next phase of the AI build-out may belong to the companies that supply the electricity.
Elon Musk just put a number on the AI bottleneck that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been quietly flagging for months, and it points to a very different group of winners than the ones dominating every investor conversation right…
Yesterday, Elon Musk shone a spotlight on a constraint everyone in the AI trade already knew was coming: Roughly 15 gigawatts of AI compute scheduled to be manufactured next year may never get powered up in 2027 — the equivalent of 10 nuclear plants’ worth of capacity sitting idle in a single year, enough to power several mid-sized American cities.
Musk wasn’t the source of the warning — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and SemiAnalysis have been flagging the same bottleneck for months — but his post on X finally gave the number a bigger audience that it deserved. He also named the actual choke points: transformers, wiring, liquid-cooling systems, massive chillers, and networking gear that cannot be built or installed fast enough.
That changes the investing question. It is no longer chips versus power. It is who supplies the hardware that sits between a finished GPU and a data center that can actually turn on. The opportunity now stretches well past Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) and the utilities. The biggest 2027 winners may be the companies that sell the plugs.
Why Chipmakers Are No Longer the Whole Story Nvidia’s fiscal second-quarter results still look like a growth machine. Data-center revenue hit $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, on a stock trading around 18 times forward earnings — a reasonable multiple for that pace. Its backlog and multi-year customer commitments remain intact.
None of that disappears if a third of next year’s chip crop sits in a warehouse waiting for power. It just arrives later. Goldman Sachs sees U.S. data-center power demand climbing from 31 GW in 2025 to 66 GW in 2027. Historically, only 50% to 60% of scheduled capacity comes online on time. Morgan Stanley puts the U.S. shortfall at 38 GW through 2028.
Nvidia will still sell the GPUs. The delay will come in plugging them in, and that is where the next layer of spending goes.
The AI boom is hitting a wall—and it’s not the chips. Investors are shifting focus to the power grid as 15 gigawatts of compute risk sitting idle. Where the Money Actually Flows Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) is the obvious first stop. Second-quarter revenue reached $1.07 billion, up 165.5% year-over-year and well ahead of the $827 million consensus. Product backlog was already near $20 billion at year-end 2025 — a record high — and management says the pipeline has grown faster than revenue since then. Solid-oxide fuel cells can be installed in months, not the years a grid interconnection takes.
However, that speed is already priced into the stock. Bloom’s forward multiple has compressed from peaks above 190 earlier this year to the mid-50s. The growth is real, but making easy money from multiple expansion is not.
Musk’s list of bottlenecks points more directly at GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV). Second-quarter results showed a $176 billion total backlog, up $13 billion in three months. The Electrification segment booked more than $5 billion in data-center orders year-to-date — more than double all of 2025. Gas-turbine equipment and slot reservations reached 116 gigawatts, with at least 125 gigawatts expected under contract by year-end.
That is the business selling the transformers, switchgear, and turbines Musk named, at a scale still compounding faster than the headlines.
Existing generators offer a third path with less execution risk. Constellation Energy (NYSE:CEG) and Vistra (NYSE:VST) already run nuclear and gas fleets that can sign power-purchase agreements today. No multi-year factory ramp. No interconnection queue. They also offer a different risk profile than a fuel-cell maker scaling production or a turbine builder racing to add capacity.
Key Takeaway Musk did not discover the AI power gap; he just put a 15-gigawatt number on it.
The trade is not “short Nvidia, buy Bloom.” Nvidia’s chip demand is intact whether those racks light up in 2027 or 2028, while Bloom’s valuation already prices in a lot of optimism about closing the gap. The more interesting money sits in the equipment Musk actually named — turbines, transformers, and grid gear — where GE Vernova’s backlog is still compounding, and in generators like Constellation that can monetize the shortfall without building a thing.
For the looming AI power gap coming next year, pick the name that fits your risk tolerance. The lesson for 2027 is the AI trade will not be decided by who makes the best chip. It will be by who can plug it in.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The search for energy reliability is driving massive investment in the power grid. Both GE Vernova (GEV -4.39%) and Vistra (VST -1.95%) are riding the wave, but in different ways.
GE Vernova focuses on the machinery and technology that generate power, serving as a global equipment supplier. Vistra operates as an integrated power producer and retailer, selling electricity directly to millions of customers. Here's a dive into their financial health and market positioning to see which stock is the better buy for 2026 and beyond.
Image source: Getty Images.
GE Vernova provides a wide range of equipment, software, and services for power generation, wind energy, and electrification. It is the world's largest manufacturer of natural gas turbines, generating nearly 25% of the world's electricity. The firm is currently expanding into small modular nuclear reactors and carbon capture through partnerships with major players like Chevron (CVX +1.05%).
In FY 2025, revenue grew 8.9% to $38.1 billion, and net income hit $4.9 billion, resulting in a net margin of roughly 12.8%. This net margin, which measures how much profit a company makes for every dollar of sales, improved significantly from 4.4% in FY 2024.
GE Vernova operated with virtually zero debt relative to equity until earlier this year, when it issued $2.6 billion to finance an acquisition and other purposes. Its current debt-to-equity ratio of 0.3x is still low for an industrial giant. GE Vernova also generated roughly $3.7 billion in free cash flow in FY 2025, which is the cash remaining after paying for operating costs and capital investments.
The case for VistraVistra operates as a massive integrated retail electricity provider and power generator. The company serves nearly 5 million retail customers across 16 states and the District of Columbia. It is increasingly focused on the electric utility stocks space through high-profile partnerships for data center power and supply contracts with hyperscalers such as Meta Platforms (META +1.21%).
In FY 2025, revenue fell 12.4% to $17 billion. Despite the lower revenue, the company achieved a net income of roughly $944 million. This resulted in a net margin of approximately 5.6%, which measures how efficiently the company converts its sales into actual profit.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 4.0x, meaning its total debt is four times the value of its shareholder equity. The current ratio is close to 0.8x, suggesting the company has slightly fewer short-term assets than short-term liabilities. Vistra reported free cash flow of approximately $129.0 million for the 2025 fiscal year, representing cash generated after capital project spending.
Risk profile comparisonGE Vernova faces risks stemming from a complex global supply chain and potential manufacturing disruptions. The company relies on successfully commercializing new technologies such as small modular reactors, which entail significant execution risks. Additionally, a December 2025 pause on U.S. offshore wind leasing could delay major projects and impact future revenue timelines.
Vistra is exposed to high volatility in commodity prices in wholesale power markets, which can cause unpredictable fluctuations in revenue. The company also faces operational risks associated with its nuclear generation facilities, including strict regulatory requirements and decommissioning costs. Furthermore, integrating major acquisitions and expanding into green energy will require substantial capital and may not meet expected profit targets.
Valuation comparisonVistra currently trades at a significantly lower multiple than GE Vernova across both future earnings and sales metrics, indicating a more value-oriented price point.
MetricGE VernovaVistraForward P/E31.1x15.4xP/S ratio6.7x2.7xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?GE Vernova is growing at a torrid pace, with backlog hitting $176 billion as of Q2. Orders grew 88% during the quarter as the turbine giant continues to power data center expansion and global grid modernization.
Thanks to the intense artificial intelligence (AI) data center build-out, traditional electricity grids face years-long interconnection queues and infrastructure bottlenecks. Tech companies and utilities cannot wait that long and are turning to aeroderivative and heavy-duty gas turbines that offer immediate, continuous 24/7 power and can be installed quickly on-site.
Demand is so high that GE Vernova's production slots are already mostly sold out through 2030 and some through 2031. Customers are paying to book slots years in advance.
Vistra, on the other hand, captures energy growth from the generation side. It owns the second-largest nuclear fleet in the U.S. and aims to expand its natural gas capacity significantly with the upcming $4 billion acquisition of Cogentrix.
As a major independent power producer, Vistra directly benefits from rising wholesale electricity prices, which depend on power demand and supply, and from long-term power purchase agreements signed directly with tech hyperscalers.
Vistra's revenue and profit growth, however, pales in comparison to GE Vernova's, largely because it uses energy derivatives to hedge power prices, and those can fluctuate.
GE Vernova is a growth stock with incredible revenue visibility and a pristine balance sheet. Vistra is a value stock with direct exposure to power demand. I would add both stocks to my portfolio now for 2026 and beyond.
Electricity demand is doing something it hasn't done in decades in the United States: growing fast. Vistra (VST -1.95%), one of the country's largest competitive power producers, told investors in its latest quarterly filing that data centers, the electrification of oil field operations, and electric vehicles are contributing to projected "fast-paced load growth" in the markets it serves.
You wouldn't know it from the stock. Shares have dropped about 37% from a 52-week high of $219.82, to about $139 as of this writing. And Vistra has company, as the whole independent power group has sold off this year. Nuclear operator Constellation Energy, for instance, is down about 32% from its own high.
With demand for Vistra's product climbing while its share price falls, is this a buying opportunity?
Image source: Getty Images.
A strong year, mostly locked inVistra's latest results, reported earlier this month, showed a business moving in the opposite direction from its share price. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from ongoing operations rose about 31% year over year in the second quarter, to $1.77 billion from $1.35 billion a year earlier, helped by higher realized power and capacity prices and contributions from recently acquired plants.
Management also reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion. Even more, it said it expects to land at or above the midpoint of that range.
The cash generation behind those earnings is substantial. The company guides to adjusted free cash flow before growth investments of about $3.9 billion to $4.7 billion this year. Against a market capitalization of about $47 billion, the midpoint works out to a roughly 9% free-cash-flow yield.
And unusually for a business tied to commodity power prices, this year's results are largely spoken for. Management says about 100% of its expected 2026 generation volumes are hedged. Topping it all off, the company has been shrinking its share count aggressively, repurchasing about $6.5 billion of stock since late 2021 and reducing shares outstanding by about 30%.
Amazon and Meta signed on for 20 yearsThe development I find more important for the long run, though, is who is signing up to buy Vistra's power -- and for how long.
In September 2025, the company struck a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon Web Services, the cloud computing arm of Amazon (AMZN +3.97%), to supply 1,200 megawatts of carbon-free power from its Comanche Peak nuclear plant in Texas. Deliveries are expected to begin in late 2027.
In January, Vistra followed with 20-year agreements with Meta Platforms (META +1.21%) covering 2,609 megawatts of nuclear power and capacity from its Perry, Davis-Besse, and Beaver Valley plants, including new capacity from planned upgrades to all three. Deliveries under the Meta deals start late this year.
Notably, those Meta agreements aren't even in the company's 2027 outlook yet. Management points to an adjusted EBITDA "midpoint opportunity" of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion for 2027 excluding them (and excluding a pending acquisition of gas plants). Vistra has also committed up to $1.0 billion to Helix, a new data center infrastructure venture where it will serve as the preferred power partner.
In short, nearly 4,000 megawatts of the company's nuclear output is now contracted to two of the world's largest technology companies for two decades each. That's revenue visibility competitive power producers rarely get.
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Adjusted EBITDA is up 31%, guidance is intact, and decades-long contracts keep stacking up. Yet the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 13. The drawdown looks less like a verdict on Vistra and more like the market cooling on the AI-power trade that got crowded in 2025.
Sure, there are risks. Vistra sells into competitive markets, so beyond its hedges and contracts, its results ride on power prices no one controls. A slowdown in data center construction could test the demand thesis. And second-quarter net income was just $305 million, weighed down by unrealized losses on hedging positions -- lumpy accounting that comes with this business model.
But at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 13, with this much of the future under contract, I think the stock is attractive. And I'd be a buyer at today's price. If power prices roll over or the data center deals stop coming, that would change my thinking. For now, I'd simply size the position with the volatility in mind.
Powertap Hydrogen Capital (OTCMKTS:MOTNF – Get Free Report) and Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) are both utilities companies, but which is the superior investment? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their dividends, risk, profitability, institutional ownership, analyst recommendations, earnings and valuation.
Profitability This table compares Powertap Hydrogen Capital and Vistra’s net margins, return on equity and return on assets.
Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets Powertap Hydrogen Capital N/A N/A N/A Vistra 11.55% 108.68% 7.67% Valuation & Earnings This table compares Powertap Hydrogen Capital and Vistra”s revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and valuation.
Gross Revenue Price/Sales Ratio Net Income Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings Ratio Powertap Hydrogen Capital N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Vistra $17.74 billion 2.60 $944.00 million $5.92 23.17 Vistra has higher revenue and earnings than Powertap Hydrogen Capital.
Institutional and Insider Ownership 90.9% of Vistra shares are held by institutional investors. 0.9% of Vistra shares are held by insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that hedge funds, endowments and large money managers believe a stock is poised for long-term growth.
Analyst Ratings This is a breakdown of current ratings and recommmendations for Powertap Hydrogen Capital and Vistra, as provided by MarketBeat.com.
Sell Ratings Hold Ratings Buy Ratings Strong Buy Ratings Rating Score Powertap Hydrogen Capital 0 0 0 0 0.00 Vistra 0 2 14 1 2.94 Vistra has a consensus price target of $223.53, suggesting a potential upside of 62.97%. Given Vistra’s stronger consensus rating and higher probable upside, analysts clearly believe Vistra is more favorable than Powertap Hydrogen Capital.
Summary Vistra beats Powertap Hydrogen Capital on 10 of the 10 factors compared between the two stocks.
(Get Free Report)
Powertap Hydrogen Capital Corp. is a venture capital firm specializing in investments in early stage, buyouts. It prefers to invest in equity, bridge loans, secured loans, unsecured loans, convertible debentures, warrants and options, joint ventures, partnerships, royalties, streaming investments, net profit interests and other hybrid instruments. It focuses its investments in energy sector, oil and gas equipment and commercial aircraft sector. The firm prefers to invest in securities of private and publicly listed entities that are involved in a variety of industries including renewable energy includes hydrogen & fuel cell technologies, wind power, solar power and geothermal power. The firm invests bio-medical, pharmaceutical, and naturopathic sectors, which may include medical or recreational cannabis. The firm prefers to focus on investing in cannabis enterprises. The firm considers investments in North America. The firm does not invest in Canada and United States. The firm takes control position and majority stake in the companies. The company was formerly known as Clean Power Capital Corp. and changed its name to Powertap Hydrogen Capital Corp. in June 2021. Powertap Hydrogen Capital Corp. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Irvine, California with additional offices in Vancouver, Canada, Hamilton, Bermuda and London, United Kingdom.
About Vistra (Get Free Report)
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. In addition, the company is involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 37,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
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Thiel Macro LLC resurfaced in mid-August with a $418.7 million book spread across exactly eight positions as of June 30, 2026, according to 13f.info’s rendering of the filing. Seven of the eight are bets on the physical energy bottleneck constraining the AI buildout. The eighth is Amazon, the company creating the bottleneck.
This is a point-in-time snapshot of long US equity positions only. It excludes shorts, derivatives, private stakes, and non-US listings. It is Thiel Macro LLC’s disclosed book, not Peter Thiel’s personal wealth, and the filing states no reasoning for any holding.
Eight Positions, One Thesis Per 13f.info and Quiver Quantitative, the disclosed positions are Amazon at $118.0M (28.2%), Vista Energy at $75.9M (18.1%), Vistra at $59.1M (14.1%), American Electric Power at $42.2M (10.1%), DTE Energy at $40.3M (9.6%), FirstEnergy at $39.9M (9.5%), CMS Energy at $39.6M (9.4%), and X-Energy at $3.7M (0.9%). HedgeCo.Net corroborated the eight-name structure on Aug. 19, 2026.
The market noticed Vista first. Shares of Vista Energy (NYSE:VIST) closed at $68.31 on Friday, Aug. 14, and $72.16 on Monday, Aug. 17, a close-to-close move of 5.64%. The pop faded. Vista finished at $69.58 on Friday, Aug. 21, below the Aug. 17 close. The fund disclosed a stake in a stock already up 42.99% year to date and 1,568.59% over five years.
Power, Not Chips, Is the Constraint The seven bottleneck plays reflect a visible mechanism in utility earnings calls: expanding existing generation is cheaper and faster than building new capacity, and hyperscaler demand arrives before new plants can be permitted. American Electric Power (NASDAQ:AEP | AEP Price Prediction) disclosed 69 gigawatts of contracted load additions through 2030, backed by a $78 billion five-year capital plan, and is advancing a 10-gigawatt Ohio project with SoftBank and federal agencies announced around March 2026.
Vistra (NYSE:VST), described by The Motley Fool on Aug. 23 as “the quietest big winner of the AI power boom,” leverages an existing nuclear-heavy fleet plus the pending Cogentrix deal. CEO Jim Burke framed the Helix venture with NVIDIA, KKR, and the Kuwait Investment Authority as a “rack-to-grid, one-stop-shop solution.” FirstEnergy (NYSE:FE) reported total forecasted data center demand up 30% since Q1 to roughly 25 gigawatts. CMS Energy (NYSE:CMS) is layering data-center load onto a $24 billion utility plan. DTE Energy (NYSE:DTE) has 2.4 gigawatts of executed agreements, anchored by a 1.4 GW Oracle facility and a 1 GW Google contract.
Utility Dive’s first-quarter 2026 roundup described utilities as “divided on data centers” over ratepayer affordability. That tension applies squarely to DTE, FirstEnergy, and CMS, and it is the same picking-shovels-not-gold angle we broke down across seven non-chip AI beneficiaries in a free report on the power, cooling, and networking names behind the buildout.
Nuclear and Upstream Legs X-Energy (NASDAQ:XE) completed its Nasdaq IPO in April 2026, raising approximately $1.1 billion net. The fund disclosed a stake in a company public for roughly one quarter. X-Energy’s 144-reactor pipeline across the US and UK, roughly 11.5 gigawatts electric, is anchored by Dow, Amazon, and Centrica. Amazon invested roughly $500 million in X-Energy’s Series C-1 round announced Oct. 16, 2024, targeting more than 5 gigawatts of SMR capacity by 2039. The fund disclosed both the reactor supplier and its largest announced customer. Shares closed at $18.67 on Aug. 21, down from the $29.20 April 24 open.
Vista Energy is harder to read. It is the largest independent operator in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale, producing 134,700 boe/d in Q1 2026, with extraction costs near $4.30/boe. Direct reporting framed the stake as a conventional oil and gas position tied to Thiel’s ties to the Milei administration. Crusoe Energy Systems announced a 2026 Vaca Muerta digital flare mitigation project with local partner Unblock, placing containerized data centers at wellheads. Vista has no confirmed AI power contract.
Demand-Side Anchor Amazon sits alone on the other side. AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion in Q2, up 36.7% year-over-year, the fastest growth in 18 quarters, with Q2 cash capex of $53.1 billion. One analyst cited in coverage put hyperscaler capex broadly at $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion by 2027. Amazon’s own X-Energy check makes it an active participant solving its own power problem.
Read together, the disclosed book reads as a wager on the physical resource AI growth is straining. Whether the thesis holds depends on rate cases, ERCOT and PJM queue reviews, and NRC construction-permit decisions expected over the next three quarters.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
According to research from Goldman Sachs, U.S. data center power demand is forecast to double from 31 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 to 66 gigawatts (GW) by 2027. This massive surge in energy consumption bodes well for merchant power producers such as Vistra (VST -1.97%), which sells electricity into competitive wholesale markets.
Vistra has a massive fleet of energy-producing assets in key U.S. regions and has leveraged its platform to secure major deals with hyperscalers in recent years. As demand for artificial intelligence power booms, Vistra is quietly becoming a winner from these long-term tailwinds. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
The AI power boom supercharges Vistra's business model Hyperscalers are spending massive amounts of capital on building data centers. According to Goldman Sachs Research, global AI investments could top $1 trillion this year, with more to come. This massive deployment of capital and build-out of modern data centers, where server racks require significantly more power and cooling, has citizens concerned about the impact on the power grid.
Regulated utilities operate under a cost-of-service model, meaning they earn a legally capped return on equity (ROE), which averages roughly 10%, on their investments. This helps keep energy prices stable for households and other consumers and prevents price gouging, given utilities' territorial monopolies in their regions.
As a result, regulated utilities' upside from the electricity boom is more capped. Meanwhile, independent power producers (IPPs), like Vistra, own power generation assets but don't own the power grid infrastructure, such as high-voltage transmission lines, that delivers that power. Instead, Vistra sells its power directly into wholesale markets, allowing it to benefit from spikes in wholesale power prices.
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Vistra has inked major deals with hyperscalers Vistra also has the flexibility to enter into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with hyperscalers. Last November, it signed a 20-year PPA, with a 20-year extension option, with Amazon Web Services for 1,200 megawatts (MW) of carbon-free power. In January 2026, it added to its hyperscaler deals with a 20-year PPA with Meta Platforms, supplying 2,609 megawatts (MW) of power from its nuclear sites.
The move provides long-term cash flow visibility by shifting capital risk onto hyperscalers. For example, Vistra's agreement with Meta is structured around nuclear life extensions and uprates that expand power-generating capacity. Because Meta is funding this expansion, the deal satisfies political "Bring Your Own Power" mandates sought by regulators.
Building on its extensive energy assets, Vistra announced a deal to acquire Cogentrix Energy earlier this year. The acquisition adds 10 natural gas plants with roughly 5,500 MW of capacity in key regions across the U.S., and is expected to close later this year.
What's next for Vistra Vistra stands to benefit from another major tailwind. In June, Vistra, along with KKR, Nvidia, and Kuwait Investment Authority, announced the launch of Helix Digital Infrastructure. Helix aims to facilitate the development of AI data centers and is backed by $10 billion in investments. As part of this venture, Vistra becomes Helix's preferred power provider.
Looking ahead, analysts covering Vistra stock project its earnings per share (EPS) to be $10.56 in 2027 and $12.36 in 2028. With Vistra's stock down 38% from its 52-week high, it is now priced at just 12 times next year's projected earnings.
For investors looking for exposure to data centers' growing demand for electricity, Vistra is one solid stock to buy to capitalize on this long-term growth.
Courtney Carlsen has positions in Goldman Sachs Group, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Vistra. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Goldman Sachs Group, KKR, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Vistra. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Constellation Energy: Maintaining Steady Upward Momentum in RevenueConstellation Energy (CEG -0.26%) primarily generates revenue by producing and distributing electricity across multiple geographical markets in the U.S., managing a large portfolio of generation assets that includes nuclear, wind, and solar facilities to serve utility distributors, commercial enterprises, and everyday household consumers.
It recently filed regulatory applications to extend the operational life of multiple energy plants and continues to secure long-term power purchase agreements. It reported a net margin of 7% in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
Vistra: Navigating Recent Year-Over-Year Declines in RevenueVistra (VST -0.54%) earns its revenue through a combination of retail electricity supply operations and extensive power generation activities, managing a large fleet of natural gas, nuclear, and battery storage facilities to deliver electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial clients across multiple states.
While launching a joint entity to finance digital infrastructure projects and running community energy assistance programs, it reported an operating margin of around 14% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
Why Revenue Trends Matter for Individual InvestorsRevenue here refers to the data provider's standardized income-statement revenue line item, and it serves as an essential baseline metric for everyday investors because it reveals the absolute scale of capital flowing into the business prior to any expenses being deducted.
Quarterly Revenue for Constellation Energy and VistraQuarter (Period End)Constellation Energy RevenueVistra RevenueQ3 2024 (Sept. 2024)$6.5 billion$5.5 billionQ4 2024 (Dec. 2024)$5.4 billion$7.4 billionQ1 2025 (March 2025)$6.8 billion$5.2 billionQ2 2025 (June 2025)$6.1 billion$4.3 billionQ3 2025 (Sept. 2025)$7.2 billion$5.0 billionQ4 2025 (Dec. 2025)$5.5 billion$2.3 billionQ1 2026 (March 2026)$11.1 billion$4.7 billionQ2 2026 (June 2026)$7.5 billion$4.0 billionData source: Company filings. Data as of Aug. 12, 2026.
Foolish TakeThe demand for nuclear energy is on the rise amid the artificial intelligence (AI) data center boom.
Constellation Energy and Vistra are the two biggest players in U.S. nuclear power, and both are interestingly running the same playbook right now: leaning on nuclear as the crown-jewel asset for the AI data center build-out, while simultaneously bulking up on natural gas to add flexible capacity faster than new nuclear could ever be built. So while Constellation Energy acquired Calpine in early 2026, Vistra is all set to acquire gas plants from Cogentrix Energy.
The Calpine deal explains the big recent jump in Constellation's quarterly revenues. Vistra's revenue, meanwhile, is lumpy as it uses energy derivatives to hedge power prices and books gains and losses on commodity price fluctuations, as the case may be.
Both companies have a large exposure to major wholesale power markets, such as the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and PJM. Power prices in such markets are driven by supply and demand and therefore offer greater upside potential for the two companies than for traditional utilities.
Constellation is the larger, faster-growing energy company integrating a massive acquisition, while Vistra is the smaller but more capital-return-focused of the two, targeting at least $1 billion in annual share repurchases.
Aljian Capital Management LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) in the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The fund purchased 6,650 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,055,000.
Other institutional investors have also recently bought and sold shares of the company. Norges Bank acquired a new stake in shares of Vistra in the 4th quarter worth about $746,729,000. Fifth Third Bancorp boosted its position in shares of Vistra by 95.1% during the first quarter. Fifth Third Bancorp now owns 177,199 shares of the company’s stock valued at $26,638,000 after buying an additional 86,393 shares during the last quarter. Payden & Rygel raised its position in Vistra by 3,118.2% in the 4th quarter. Payden & Rygel now owns 35,400 shares of the company’s stock valued at $5,711,000 after buying an additional 34,300 shares during the last quarter. Signature Estate & Investment Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in Vistra in the 4th quarter valued at $29,875,000. Finally, Wealth High Governance Capital Ltda bought a new position in Vistra during the 1st quarter valued at $10,543,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 90.88% of the company’s stock.
Insider Buying and Selling at Vistra In related news, Director John R. Sult sold 6,500 shares of Vistra stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, June 18th. The shares were sold at an average price of $170.00, for a total value of $1,105,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 70,714 shares in the company, valued at approximately $12,021,380. The trade was a 8.42% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, Director Paul M. Barbas sold 244 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Monday, June 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $153.00, for a total transaction of $37,332.00. Following the sale, the director directly owned 53,006 shares in the company, valued at $8,109,918. The trade was a 0.46% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last ninety days, insiders sold 41,588 shares of company stock worth $6,739,227. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.
Vistra Stock Down 3.9% VST stock opened at $140.39 on Wednesday. The stock has a fifty day moving average of $154.02 and a 200-day moving average of $156.25. Vistra Corp. has a fifty-two week low of $132.66 and a fifty-two week high of $219.82. The company has a market capitalization of $47.12 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.71 and a beta of 1.41. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a quick ratio of 0.87 and a current ratio of 0.97. Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.61 by ($0.85). The firm had revenue of $4.02 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.46 billion. Vistra had a net margin of 11.55% and a return on equity of 108.68%. As a group, equities research analysts predict that Vistra Corp. will post 9.23 earnings per share for the current year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Stockholders of record on Monday, September 21st will be paid a $0.23 dividend. The ex-dividend date is Monday, September 21st. This is a positive change from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. This represents a $0.92 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 0.7%. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio is 15.54%.
Analysts Set New Price Targets A number of equities analysts have issued reports on VST shares. The Goldman Sachs Group set a $206.00 price objective on shares of Vistra in a report on Wednesday, August 12th. Scotiabank lifted their target price on shares of Vistra from $293.00 to $298.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Wednesday, July 15th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced their target price on Vistra from $240.00 to $231.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a report on Thursday, April 30th. Raymond James Financial set a $208.00 price target on Vistra in a report on Monday, April 27th. Finally, TD Cowen cut their price objective on Vistra from $230.00 to $222.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Monday, July 27th. Three research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have issued a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of $228.56.
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About Vistra (Free Report)
Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.
Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.
See Also Five stocks we like better than Vistra The AI Boom Is Turning This Cable Maker Into a Stock to Watch A Star Investor Just Trimmed Amazon—Here’s What It means Wendy’s Deal Buzz May Give Fast-Food Investors a New Reason to Look Home Depot Analysts See a Path to $375 and Beyond Want to see what other hedge funds are holding VST? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report).
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Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) and Spark Power Group (OTCMKTS:SKPGF – Get Free Report) are both utilities companies, but which is the better stock? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their dividends, profitability, risk, analyst recommendations, valuation, earnings and institutional ownership.
Institutional and Insider Ownership 90.9% of Vistra shares are held by institutional investors. 0.9% of Vistra shares are held by company insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that endowments, large money managers and hedge funds believe a company will outperform the market over the long term.
Analyst Ratings This is a breakdown of current ratings for Vistra and Spark Power Group, as reported by MarketBeat.
Sell Ratings Hold Ratings Buy Ratings Strong Buy Ratings Rating Score Vistra 0 1 13 3 3.12 Spark Power Group 0 0 0 0 0.00 Vistra currently has a consensus price target of $228.56, suggesting a potential upside of 62.81%. Given Vistra’s stronger consensus rating and higher probable upside, analysts plainly believe Vistra is more favorable than Spark Power Group. Earnings and Valuation This table compares Vistra and Spark Power Group”s gross revenue, earnings per share and valuation.
Gross Revenue Price/Sales Ratio Net Income Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings Ratio Vistra $17.74 billion 2.66 $944.00 million $5.92 23.71 Spark Power Group N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Vistra has higher revenue and earnings than Spark Power Group.
Profitability This table compares Vistra and Spark Power Group’s net margins, return on equity and return on assets.
Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets Vistra 11.55% 108.68% 7.67% Spark Power Group N/A N/A N/A Summary Vistra beats Spark Power Group on 10 of the 10 factors compared between the two stocks.
About Vistra (Get Free Report)
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. In addition, the company is involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 37,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
(Get Free Report)
Spark Power Group Inc. provides electrical contracting, operations, and maintenance services, as well as energy sustainability solutions in Canada and the United States. The company's Technical Services segment offers low-voltage technical services, including electrical contracting, custom control panel design and assembly, industrial automation, electronic repair, systems integration, and 24/7 emergency services; and medium and high voltage technical services, such as power on', equipment installation, sub-station construction and maintenance, commissioning, power line construction and maintenance, thermography, and transformer maintenance services. This segment also provides engineering services comprising power systems engineering, protection and control engineering, substation engineering, SCADA engineering, and arc flash studies, as well as fabrication shop/paint services; buys, refurbishes, and resells used electrical equipment; sells and rents power transformers; and sells medium voltage electrical switchgears. Its Renewables segment offers renewables operations and maintenance services comprising wind, solar, battery energy storage systems, and electric vehicle assets. The company serves industrial, commercial, institutional, renewable, and agricultural customers, as well as utility markets, including municipalities, universities, schools, and hospitals. Spark Power Group Inc. is headquartered in Oakville, Canada. As of December 5, 2023, Spark Power Group Inc. was taken private.
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BlackRock Inc. bought a new position in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) during the second quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund bought 29,064,465 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $4,610,496,000. BlackRock Inc. owned approximately 8.62% of Vistra at the end of the most recent quarter.
Other large investors also recently bought and sold shares of the company. Fideuram Intesa Sanpaolo Private Banking S.P.A. purchased a new stake in Vistra in the 4th quarter worth about $25,000. Mcguire Capital Advisors Inc. bought a new position in shares of Vistra during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $28,000. Kemnay Advisory Services Inc. purchased a new stake in Vistra in the 4th quarter valued at about $30,000. Strive Financial Group LLC purchased a new position in shares of Vistra during the fourth quarter worth approximately $33,000. Finally, Salomon & Ludwin LLC increased its holdings in Vistra by 74.8% during the 4th quarter. Salomon & Ludwin LLC now owns 215 shares of the company’s stock worth $35,000 after purchasing an additional 92 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 90.88% of the company’s stock.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of research analysts have recently issued reports on the stock. Sanford C. Bernstein set a $187.00 price objective on shares of Vistra and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 16th. Seaport Research Partners reissued a “buy” rating and issued a $230.00 price objective on shares of Vistra in a report on Monday, June 15th. Scotiabank increased their target price on shares of Vistra from $293.00 to $298.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research note on Wednesday, July 15th. Weiss Ratings lowered shares of Vistra from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “hold (c)” rating in a research report on Thursday, August 13th. Finally, JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered their target price on shares of Vistra from $240.00 to $231.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, April 30th. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $228.56.
View Our Latest Report on VST Insider Buying and Selling In other Vistra news, Director Paul M. Barbas sold 244 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, June 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $153.00, for a total value of $37,332.00. Following the completion of the sale, the director owned 53,006 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $8,109,918. This trade represents a 0.46% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, Director Scott B. Helm sold 25,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, June 16th. The shares were sold at an average price of $160.00, for a total transaction of $4,000,000.00. Following the sale, the director directly owned 232,200 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $37,152,000. The trade was a 9.72% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders have sold 41,588 shares of company stock worth $6,739,227 in the last 90 days. 0.92% of the stock is owned by insiders.
Vistra Price Performance Shares of NYSE:VST opened at $140.39 on Wednesday. Vistra Corp. has a one year low of $132.66 and a one year high of $219.82. The company has a 50-day simple moving average of $154.02 and a 200-day simple moving average of $156.25. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a quick ratio of 0.87 and a current ratio of 0.97. The stock has a market capitalization of $47.12 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.71 and a beta of 1.41.
Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.61 by ($0.85). Vistra had a net margin of 11.55% and a return on equity of 108.68%. The company had revenue of $4.02 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.46 billion. On average, analysts predict that Vistra Corp. will post 9.23 EPS for the current year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Investors of record on Monday, September 21st will be given a dividend of $0.23 per share. This is a positive change from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Monday, September 21st. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 0.7%. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.54%.
About Vistra (Free Report)
Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.
Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Vistra The AI Boom Is Turning This Cable Maker Into a Stock to Watch A Star Investor Just Trimmed Amazon—Here’s What It means Wendy’s Deal Buzz May Give Fast-Food Investors a New Reason to Look Home Depot Analysts See a Path to $375 and Beyond
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Vistra's (VST -0.70%) stock has surged in recent years as energy demand has exploded, powered by artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. However, shares of the power generation company have cooled down this year amid concerns about pushback on behind-the-meter deals with hyperscalers, and it's now down 32% from its peak. Here's why I don't think Vistra shares will stay under $150 for long.
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Vistra's earnings are inflecting higher amid major deals Vistra operates as an independent power producer, meaning it sells its energy capacity into the wholesale power markets or through long-term agreements.
Earlier this year, Vistra signed a major 20-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Meta Platforms to supply 2,609 megawatts (MW) of carbon-free nuclear energy and to uprate capacity at its nuclear sites in the PJM region. It also locked in a similar agreement with Amazon Web Services.
In the second quarter, Vistra's adjusted EBITDA was $1.7 billion, growing 31% year over year. Management reaffirmed its adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and projects 2027's figure to be between $7.4 billion and $7.8 billion.
Image source: Getty Images.
Vistra could see even more upside. Earlier this year, it announced plans to acquire Cogentrix, which owns 10 natural gas generation facilities with about 5,500 megawatts of capacity. Between the Cogentrix deal and the Meta Platforms PPA, the company expects to add roughly $700 million in incremental adjusted EBITDA in 2027, a significant tailwind that is not yet fully reflected in its current guidance.
Is Vistra stock a buy right now? Vistra stock has been volatile this year and is down 32% from its 52-week high, as investors weigh potential regulatory headwinds alongside the sustainability of the ongoing data center build-out.
That said, Vistra has done a solid job securing long-term agreements, and analysts project strong growth ahead, including earnings per share of $8.97 for 2026 and annual increases of 20% in 2027 and another 17% in 2028.
With Vistra stock trading at around 16.6 times this year's projected earnings, I think now is an excellent time for investors to scoop up the energy stock.
Courtney Carlsen has positions in Meta Platforms and Vistra. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Vistra. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Hyperscalers are investing in data centers at an astounding pace. However, these data centers are facing a major bottleneck: energy. While constructing a data center may take up to two years, developing the necessary grid infrastructure can take four to 10 years, or longer.
Demand is only going up from here. According to the International Energy Agency, data center power consumption averaged about 540 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per capita in 2024, with projections indicating it could rise to 1,200 kWh per capita by 2030.
Companies with power capacity to meet the expanding energy demands of data centers, such as Constellation Energy (CEG +1.39%) and Vistra Energy (VST +1.18%), are positioning themselves as key players amid this AI-driven capex boom.
Image source: Getty Images.
Energy stocks have gone from boring, stable investments to AI growth plays Energy stocks are historically viewed as low-growth, defensive stocks due to their stable businesses and steady demand for energy. However, the rapid expansion of AI data centers is turning this on its head, and energy stocks are now becoming AI growth plays amid the unprecedented surge in power demand.
Because AI data centers need reliable baseload power, many are getting creative with what type of power they use and where. Since many of these technology companies have decarbonization mandates, more are turning to utilities that provide carbon-free nuclear energy or other low-carbon power sources.
Hyperscalers are locking in energy with multi-decade power purchase agreements Amid this backdrop, independent power producers such as Constellation Energy and Vistra Energy have secured a slew of long-term agreements with hyperscalers and others in the AI space.
For example, in the second quarter, Constellation signed roughly 920 megawatts (MW) of long-term nuclear contracts with corporate customers, averaging 18.5 years, locking up about 30% of its clean baseload output under long-term agreements.
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It also signed a power purchase agreement with Walmart, representing the retailer's first-ever nuclear energy agreement. The agreement includes approximately 176 MW of wholesale supply from the Dresden Clean Energy Center in Illinois across two 15-year terms starting in 2029 and 2030. This builds on the company's earlier agreements with Microsoft and Meta Platforms.
Earlier this year, Vistra signed a massive power purchase agreement with Meta Platforms for 2,600 MW of energy and capacity at its PJM nuclear site. It also signed a long-term contract with Amazon Web Services for up to 1,200 MW of power from its nuclear plant in Texas.
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In June, Vistra partnered with KKR, Nvidia, and the Kuwait Investment Authority to form Helix Digital Infrastructure, an infrastructure development and financing company with $10 billion in capital commitments, including $1 billion from Vistra. Vistra will serve as the preferred power partner for both new-build and existing projects.
Constellation and Vistra are bets on the AI-driven energy shortage Constellation and Vistra are seeing robust energy demand, and both benefit from their IPP business models and massive nuclear energy capacity. These companies have locked in multi-decade, fixed-price agreements with built-in inflation escalators.
The companies remain vulnerable to the regulatory backdrop, including scrutiny around co-location or behind-the-meter deals. They also face the risk of AI capex drying up, which would reduce projections for energy demand growth.
With that said, for investors looking to capitalize on the shortages created by the massive data center build-out, Constellation and Vistra, both down 32% from their 52-week highs, are two intriguing energy stocks to play these tight power markets.
Courtney Carlsen has positions in Constellation Energy, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vistra. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Constellation Energy, KKR, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Vistra, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Key Takeaways Vistra's Q2 earnings beat estimates as adjusted EBITDA rose 31%, helped by pricing and Lotus assets.Revenues fell 5.5% to $4.02B as unrealized commodity derivative losses outweighed key operating gains.Vistra reaffirmed 2026 guidance, with hedges covering nearly 100% of 2026 expected generation volumes. Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $1.80 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54 by 16.9%. GAAP diluted earnings were 76 cents per share, down 6.2% from 81 cents a year ago.
The reaction from the market was quite positive after the earnings release, with the stock gaining 3.08% since VST reported second-quarter results.
Total RevenuesRevenues totaled $4.02 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.29 billion by 36.2% and declining 5.5% year over year.
Operating revenues fell to $4.02 billion from $4.25 billion a year earlier. The decline primarily reflected a $611 million increase in unrealized mark-to-market losses on commodity derivative positions. However, higher retail contractual rates, stronger wholesale capacity and energy revenues and the addition of plants acquired from Lotus provided partial offsets.
VST’s Operational HighlightsTotal retail electricity sales volume declined 4.4% to 31,800 GWh, as ERCOT sales volumes fell 7.8% and Northeast/Midwest volumes increased 0.7%.
Fuel, purchased power costs and delivery fees declined 10.1% to $1.77 billion. Lower costs reflected a $123 million increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains on commodity derivatives and lower realized fuel costs from optimizing dispatch of select gas units, partly offset by the acquired Lotus plants.
Operating costs increased 16.4% to $853 million, driven mainly by higher maintenance and outage costs, the Lotus plants and incremental costs tied to the Moss Landing incident, net of insurance recoveries. Selling, general and administrative expenses fell 6.4% to $392 million, reflecting lower transition and merger costs and legal settlements.
Ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA rose 31% to $1.77 billion, aided by higher realized energy and capacity prices and contributions from the Lotus assets.
Operating income rose 7.4% to $553 million. Net income attributable to Vistra decreased 6.7% to $305 million, mainly because unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivative positions increased by $488 million.
Vistra's Hedging Supports Forward VisibilityAs of Aug. 3, 2026, Vistra had hedged nearly 100% of expected generation volumes for 2026, 94% for 2027 and 72% for 2028. Management said the hedging program supports the company's 2026 outlook and helps reduce exposure to changes in forward power prices.
VST's Liquidity and Shareholder Returns Remain StrongCash and cash equivalents were $435 million at June 30, 2026, compared with $785 million at year-end 2025. Total available liquidity stood at $6.30 billion, including $4.41 billion available under the corporate revolving credit facility and $1.45 billion under the commodity-linked facility.
Cash provided by operating activities for the first six months of 2026 rose 89.8% to $2.22 billion. Vistra spent $709 million on share repurchases during the period. As of Aug. 3, roughly $1.2 billion remained under the authorization, which the company expects to complete no later than year-end 2027.
Vistra Reaffirms 2026 Guidance and Advances GrowthVistra reaffirmed 2026 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8-$7.6 billion and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925-$4.725 billion.
Management said first-half performance supports an outcome at or above the midpoint of the 2026 ranges.
The company also advanced several growth initiatives. Vistra committed up to $1 billion to Helix Digital Infrastructure and will serve as its preferred power partner. It also received FERC approval for the pending Cogentrix Energy acquisition, which is expected to close in late 2026 and add about 5,500 MW of natural gas generation capacity.
VST’s Zacks RankThe company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Recent ReleasesDuke Energy Corporation's (DUK - Free Report) second-quarter 2026 earnings of $1.43 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29 by 10.9%. The bottom line increased 14.4% from $1.25 reported in the year-ago quarter.
Total operating revenues were $7.59 billion, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.72 billion by 1.6%. The top line increased 1% from $7.51 billion in the year-ago period.
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 40 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents by 8.1%. The bottom line increased 37.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of 29 cents.
CNP generated revenues of $2.15 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.8%. The top line was 10.7% higher than the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $1.94 billion.
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of 37 cents, which came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the bottom line declined 47.9% from 71 cents in the year-ago quarter.
CMS' operating revenues totaled $1.83 billion, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.91 billion by 4.2%. The top line also fell 0.5% from $1.84 billion in the prior-year quarter.
Key Takeaways Vistra's Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose over 30% Y/Y to $1.767B as 2026 guidance stayed intact.VST sees data centers becoming a larger load-growth driver from 2028 despite possible Texas review delays.Vistra says softer ERCOT forwards point to the lower end of its $7.4B-$7.8B 2027 midpoint range. Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) used its second-quarter 2026 earnings call to reinforce a power-demand outlook driven by data centers and broader load growth, while acknowledging softer ERCOT pricing.
Management sharpened 2027 framing, expanded on Helix and emphasized capital-allocation flexibility.
VST Maintains Its 2026 OutlookExecutive vice president and CFO Kristopher Moldovan reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion. He expects results at or above both midpoints.
President and CEO James Burke highlighted second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.767 billion, up more than 30% year over year. Fleet commercial availability exceeded 97% during recent heat in Texas and PJM.
VST’s second-quarter 2026 earnings of $1.80 per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54. However, revenues of $4.02 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.29 billion.
Vistra Sees Data Center Demand HoldingThe CEO maintained Vistra's view of annual load growth of at least 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030. He expects data centers to become a larger driver from 2028.
A Wells Fargo analyst pressed management on Texas data center audits and Batch Zero delays. CEO Burke said reviews could pause for a few months, but Vistra does not expect its late-2027 Comanche Peak project to be affected.
Chief strategy and sustainability officer Stacey Dore said Vistra remains in active discussions across multiple ERCOT and PJM sites. She added that customers are still willing to contract before every regulatory detail is settled.
VST Flags a Softer 2027 ERCOT SetupCFO Kristopher Moldovan said current ERCOT forward curves are meaningfully below levels used for Vistra's 2027 midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion. Higher PJM prices, hedges and nuclear production tax credit protection support maintaining the range.
A Wolfe Research analyst asked about the 2027 bias. Moldovan clarified that those offsets do not fully cover the ERCOT headwind and said Vistra is trending toward the lower end of the range.
Cogentrix and the Meta power purchase agreements remain excluded. The CFO said prior disclosures support roughly $700 million of additional midpoint opportunity from those items before other impacts. He expects a 2026 and 2027 guidance update on the third-quarter call, subject to Cogentrix's closing timetable.
Vistra Uses Helix To Expand Its Deal FunnelCEO James Burke described Helix as an added channel for data center opportunities, not a required route. Vistra has committed up to $1 billion, with funding above $500 million tied to milestones, and will serve as Helix's preferred power partner.
Wolfe Research and Morgan Stanley analysts asked about Helix's pipeline and economics. Chief strategy and sustainability officer Stacey Dore said the platform can draw from Vistra's sites and bring new inbound customer opportunities.
Dore said any Vistra power project pursued through Helix must meet the company's mid-teens return targets. Helix can also take a different capital-risk profile where Vistra does not provide the power.
VST Keeps Capital Allocation FlexibleCFO Moldovan said Vistra expects more than $10 billion of available cash across 2026 and 2027. About $3 billion is allocated to equity holders and $4.5 billion to $5 billion to growth, leaving $2 billion to $2.5 billion for further allocation.
A Goldman Sachs analyst asked about faster buybacks. Moldovan said the remaining $1.2 billion authorization should be exhausted no later than year-end 2027 and management has flexibility to seek additional authorization.
The CFO also reiterated Vistra's goal of mid-investment-grade ratings at three major agencies. He said disciplined EBITDA growth is the primary path, with debt reduction available when appropriate.
Vistra Keeps Focus on ExecutionCEO Burke closed by emphasizing reliable fleet performance, disciplined development and a realistic view of power-market supply and demand as policy debates continue.
Management paired confidence in long-term load growth with caution around ERCOT pricing, regulatory timing and the pace at which data center demand converts into contracted load.
VST's Zacks Signals Stay Favorable but BalancedVST carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. Its Momentum Score and VGM Score are A, while its Value Score and Growth Score are B, leaving all four scores in the A-B range.
Style Scores complement the Zacks Rank, and the strongest combinations are generally associated with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) stocks. VST's rank can change as earnings estimates are revised after the reported results.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) reported $4.02 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing a year-over-year decline of 5.5%. EPS of $1.80 for the same period compares to $1.01 a year ago.
The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.29 billion, representing a surprise of -36.17%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +16.88%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.54.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how Vistra performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Total retail electricity sales volumes: 31,800.00 GWh versus 34,031.77 GWh estimated by two analysts on average.Adjusted EBITDA- Retail: $773 million versus $750.28 million estimated by two analysts on average.Adjusted EBITDA- West: $68 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $53.37 million.Adjusted EBITDA- East: $642 million compared to the $627.65 million average estimate based on two analysts.Adjusted EBITDA- Texas: $311 million versus $232.31 million estimated by two analysts on average.View all Key Company Metrics for Vistra here>>>
Shares of Vistra have returned -11.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.4% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Analysts See Major Upside for These 5 StocksVistra NYSE: VST reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.767 billion, up more than 30% from about $1.35 billion a year earlier, as higher generation earnings and continued retail strength lifted results. The company reaffirmed its full-year financial outlook and said it remains on track for another record year in 2026.
President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Burke said the company is seeing a “structurally improved demand environment” in its core markets. Both PJM and ERCOT recorded new all-time summer peak loads in July, with PJM exceeding 168 gigawatts and ERCOT surpassing 91 gigawatts.
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Atomic Dividends: Big Tech's New Energy BetBurke said Vistra continues to estimate annual load growth of at least 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030. While data centers are expected to be a significant contributor, particularly from 2028 onward, he said industrial reshoring, electrification, population growth in Texas and broader economic expansion are also driving demand.
Generation and retail contributions Vistra’s generation segment produced about $994 million in second-quarter adjusted EBITDA, compared with approximately $593 million in the prior-year quarter. Chief Financial Officer Kris Moldovan attributed the improvement primarily to favorable hedging activity, which resulted in average realized prices that were approximately 5% higher per megawatt-hour than a year earlier.
Radioactive Returns: Geopolitics and AI Fuel a Nuclear SupercycleOther factors included higher PJM capacity revenues, optimization of flexible gas generation to capture margin opportunities, the restart of Martin Lake Unit 1 and contributions from assets acquired from Lotus in the third quarter of 2025.
The retail business contributed about $773 million in adjusted EBITDA, compared with approximately $756 million a year earlier. Moldovan noted that the second and fourth quarters are typically the strongest seasonal periods for retail margins.
Operationally, Burke said Vistra completed planned refueling outages at three nuclear units and 92 planned outages across its gas and coal fleet ahead of the summer season. During recent heat waves in Texas and PJM, the company achieved commercial availability above 97% across its fleet, he said.
Guidance maintained as 2027 market conditions shift Vistra reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion. Moldovan said first-half performance gives the company confidence it can deliver results at or above the midpoint of those ranges.
The company also maintained its 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion. Moldovan said ERCOT forward curves are “meaningfully lower” than the levels used when the range was established in late 2025, but higher PJM prices, Vistra’s hedging program and downside protection from the nuclear production tax credit provide offsets.
Still, Moldovan said those factors do not fully offset the ERCOT headwinds and that the company is trending toward the lower end of the range. The 2027 range excludes the pending Cogentrix acquisition and expected above-market value from long-term power purchase agreements at Vistra’s PJM nuclear sites with Meta.
Based on prior disclosures, Moldovan said those two transactions could add roughly $700 million to Vistra’s 2027 midpoint opportunity, absent other factors such as market-curve changes or Cogentrix hedge levels.
Helix partnership expands data-center strategy Vistra announced a partnership with KKR, NVIDIA and the Kuwait Investment Authority as a founding investor in Helix Digital Infrastructure. The platform is intended to combine power solutions, land and other digital infrastructure for data-center customers.
Vistra committed up to $1 billion to Helix over time, with investments above $500 million subject to specified milestones. The company will also act as Helix’s preferred power partner and may participate in projects through contracted new generation or contracts involving existing assets.
Burke said the arrangement is additive to Vistra’s existing data-center strategy rather than a replacement for its own development efforts. The company retains the option to pursue projects with Helix or independently.
Chief Strategy and Sustainability Officer Stacey Doré said Helix could simplify multiparty discussions involving hyperscale customers, co-location developers and equipment providers. Vistra would pursue only projects that meet its established mid-teens levered return threshold, while Helix could also provide exposure to projects where Vistra is not the power provider.
Capital allocation and regulatory developments Vistra expects to generate more than $10 billion of available cash across 2026 and 2027. The company has allocated roughly $3 billion to shareholders through repurchases and common and preferred dividends, while planning $4.5 billion to $5 billion for growth investments, including Cogentrix, Permian gas units, PJM nuclear projects supported by Meta agreements, the Oak Hill 2 solar project and Helix.
Since beginning its repurchase program in November 2021, Vistra has retired about 171 million shares at an average cost of roughly $38 each. It has returned more than $6.5 billion through repurchases and has about $1.2 billion remaining under its current authorization, which it expects to use by the end of 2027.
The company expects an additional $2 billion to $2.5 billion of cash to be available for allocation through the end of 2027. Moldovan said Vistra will balance potential shareholder returns, growth investments meeting its return threshold, debt reduction and efforts to improve its credit profile.
In Texas, Burke said Vistra supports efforts to audit and narrow the ERCOT data-center interconnection queue, which he said has included demand estimates substantially above the company’s own long-term forecast. He said Vistra does not view the process as a moratorium and does not expect it to affect its Comanche Peak project, which is targeted for energization at the end of 2027.
In PJM, Doré said Vistra remains in active discussions with customers for both existing generation and new-build projects. She said the company supports market-based incentives for data-center load flexibility rather than mandates requiring customers to bring their own new capacity.
About Vistra (NYSE:VST)Vistra NYSE: VST is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company's operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.
Vistra's core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.
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Should You Invest $1,000 in Vistra Right Now?Before you consider Vistra, you'll want to hear this.
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The AI boom extends far beyond the biggest tech names. Discover 10 companies supplying the memory, storage, networking, semiconductor manufacturing, and power infrastructure that make AI possible. Learn where the next wave of AI investment opportunities may emerge—and the key risks investors should watch as the global AI buildout accelerates.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Data centers, manufacturing, and electric vehicles (EVs) will put greater strain on the electric grid in the coming decades, requiring massive investment in energy infrastructure. Vistra (VST -0.25%) is well positioned to meet this demand, with over 44 gigawatts of power-generating capacity across natural gas, nuclear, coal, renewables, and other sources.
Despite this opportunity, the stock trades at a reasonable forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 18. This could set up excellent returns in a growing-demand environment.
Image source: Getty Images.
Strong demand outlook The growing demand for electricity provides a bullish setup for the stock. Vistra expects annual load growth to increase by 5% to 6% in the Texas power market and by 2% to 3% in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions through 2030.
The company is capitalizing on the substantial increase in data center spending, driven by leading hyperscalers running advanced artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. It has signed long-term purchase agreements with Meta Platforms for over 2.6 gigawatts of nuclear power. It has a similar agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and remains in talks with other large-load customers, pointing to additional demand ahead.
The company has also shown it can run efficiently even in difficult conditions. Despite volatile weather in the first quarter, it delivered a healthy Q1 adjusted operating profit of $1.5 billion, with full-year adjusted operating profit expected to be $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion.
Further growth in electricity demand could translate into meaningful earnings growth over the long term. For a broader market context, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects data centers, EVs, and industrial activity to drive 3.5% annual growth in electricity demand through 2030.
Natural gas should remain one of the key sources supporting that demand, which plays to Vistra's strengths. Natural gas generation represents 62% of its capacity and should grow with its pending acquisition of Cogentrix, which would add about 5.5 gigawatts of natural gas generation assets.
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Risks and growth expectations There are risks to watch, including bottlenecks in data center expansion and delays in grid connections. Shifting weather patterns, regulation, and power prices in Texas could also pressure Vistra's revenue growth.
Still, the stock's valuation already appears to reflect some of those risks. Although analysts forecast earnings to grow at a 37% annualized rate in the coming years, the stock trades at a modest forward PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth) of about 0.5x.
Vistra's integrated model -- producing power and selling it directly to customers -- should support growing earnings over time. Its deals with leading hyperscalers suggest it's an under-the-radar way to benefit from the data center spending wave.
Vistra Corp reported a slight decline in second-quarter profit on Friday, as unrealized losses on commodity hedges outweighed strong growth in its power generation business amid periods of extreme heat in some of its markets.
The explosive growth in artificial intelligence (AI) is creating a historic boom in energy demand. Unlike traditional cloud workloads, which required about 5 kilowatts (kW) to 10 kW per server rack, modern AI hardware with high-density GPU clusters requires anywhere from 20 kW to up to 100 kW per rack.
The AI boom has a surprising bottleneck, and it's not chips, models, or cloud capacity, but the electricity required to keep the whole thing running. Grid operators across several key regions are seeing multiyear backlogs for interconnection permits and power equipment.
In Northern Virginia, which is known as "data center alley," data centers already consume roughly 26% of all electricity generated in the state. For investors, utility operators with large footprints in key regions could be hidden winners from the booming AI infrastructure. Here are three utility stocks that you should be watching closely amid this historic power crunch.
Image source: Getty Images.
Constellation Energy boasts the largest nuclear power capacity in the U.S. Constellation Energy (CEG -1.52%) operates as an independent power producer and boasts 22 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity, making it the largest commercial operator of nuclear power in the U.S. A large chunk of Constellation's power generation is located in the PJM Interconnection region, which serves 67 million customers from Illinois to New Jersey, including data center alley.
This geographic advantage was important when it entered into a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Microsoft in 2024. As part of the deal, Constellation is restarting Unit 1 at Three Mile Island (which has an 835 MW capacity) to supply nuclear power to the hyperscaler. It also entered a similar 20-year PPA with Meta Platforms to provide energy from its Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois.
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Constellation is appealing because of its large nuclear footprint. That's because nuclear energy provides highly reliable baseload power, which is crucial for hyperscalers seeking uninterrupted, clean energy to meet zero-emissions goals. It also diversified its portfolio through its $26.6 billion acquisition of Calpine, adding over 27 gigawatts of natural gas and geothermal capacity to its fleet in high-demand markets.
Investing in Constellation isn't without risk. Because it operates as a wholesale merchant power producer, the company is vulnerable to regulatory interventions. For example, some consumer advocates have criticized behind-the-meter data center co-location at nuclear plants, arguing it bypasses the grid and shifts grid maintenance costs onto residential consumers.
That said, the stock has declined 35% from its 52-week high and is priced at around 20 times next year's forward earnings. With analysts pricing in 22% compound annual growth in earnings per share over the next three years, Constellation is a top utility provider to consider scooping up today.
Vistra manages a massive fleet of natural gas, nuclear, and an expanding renewable footprint Vistra Corporation (VST +0.57%) is another major independent power producer, with about 44,000 megawatts of total capacity. Like Constellation, the company operates a merchant power business model selling electricity directly into competitive wholesale markets across 18 states. The company has a diverse energy portfolio comprising natural gas, the second-largest nuclear fleet in the country, along with power from coal, solar, and battery storage.
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$
141.38
Early this year, Vistra entered into a 20-year PPA with Meta Platforms for 2,600 MW of power from three of its nuclear plants in the PJM region. The company is also leveraging its legacy coal and brownfield sites to host solar and battery assets linked to Amazon (200 MW Oak Hill solar facility in Texas) and Microsoft (the 405 MW Pulaski solar facility in Illinois).
Vistra has also emerged as the preferred power provider for Helix Investments, a new company formed with KKR, the Kuwait Investment Authority, and Nvidia. With over $10 billion in capital commitments, Helix aims to build data centers and integrated infrastructure to meet surging AI demand.
Like Constellation, Vistra is exposed to regulatory risks and price caps in regions like PJM. That said, the historic power crunch also favors Vistra, with analysts projecting robust growth for it over the next several years.
NextEra benefits from AI upside while offering stability as a regulated utility provider NextEra Energy (NEE -1.52%) is another appealing stock in the utility sector, with its business split between Florida Power and Light, the largest regulated utility in the United States, and NextEra Energy Resources, the world's largest producer of wind and solar power.
The company has become a key partner for large-scale renewable energy build-outs and boasts a record 35.1 GW renewable and storage pipeline. The company is also deploying utility-scale battery storage capacity to complement solar arrays, helping smooth out intermittent solar power so hyperscalers can reliably run compute clusters while limiting their carbon footprints.
Today's Change
(
-1.52
%) $
-1.31
Current Price
$
84.60
The company also recently partnered with Brookfield Asset Management and the U.S. Department of Energy on a $100 billion AI data center campus in western Kentucky. As part of this, NextEra is expected to build and own 2 GW of natural-gas generation capacity and up to 2.6 GW of battery storage.
NextEra balances the growth in AI-driven power demand with the stability of a regulated utility provider and has a stellar 32-year track record of raising its dividend payout. For investors seeking a more stable utility stock, NextEra offers a lower-volatility play than merchant power producers like Constellation and Vistra.
GAAP second quarter 2026 Net Income of $305 million, including an unrealized loss from hedges expected to settle in future years of $472 million. Achieved more than 30% growth in Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA1 to $1,767 million for the quarter compared to second quarter 2025. Reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG1 guidance ranges of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion, respectively.3 Announced Helix Digital Infrastructure alongside KKR, KIA, and NVIDIA with an initial commitment from Vistra of up to $1.0 billion. Received Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval of the pending Cogentrix Energy acquisition. Earned second consecutive distinction as one of U.S. News & World Report's Best Companies to Work For. , /PRNewswire/ -- Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) today reported its second quarter 2026 financial results and other highlights.
"The Vistra team delivered another strong quarter, building on our momentum from the start of the year and continuing to execute at a high level," said Jim Burke, president and CEO of Vistra. "I'm incredibly proud of our employees across the company - through their commitment, collaboration, and focus on serving our customers, Vistra delivered a more than 30% year-over-year increase in Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA.1 From our generation team maintaining a reliable fleet, to our commercial and retail teams navigating dynamic market conditions and delivering solutions for customers, these results reflect the hard work and dedication of our people."
"We also announced an important investment to further position Vistra for long-term growth. The formation of Helix Digital Infrastructure, alongside our partners NVIDIA, KKR, and Kuwait Investment Authority, as well as Vistra's role as Helix's preferred power provider, create an exciting opportunity for the company. At the same time, we continued advancing key strategic initiatives, including the pending Cogentrix acquisition, construction of our two Permian Basin natural gas units, and development of solar facilities, including Oak Hill 2 and Pulaski."
"Operationally, the Vistra team's preparation and disciplined execution during our annual spring maintenance season set us up for strong, reliable performance during the first half of the summer. During recent periods of extreme heat in Texas and the PJM market, Vistra achieved commercial availability of 97% or greater across our fleet, helping ensure reliable power when our customers and communities needed it most. As we complete the critical summer period and the remainder of the year, we remain focused on safely and reliably operating our fleet, advancing our strategy, and continuing to create solutions and value for our customers, communities, employees, and shareholders."
Summary of Financial Results for the Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2026 and 2025
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Three Months Ended June 30,
Six Months Ended June 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
Net income
$ 305
$ 327
$ 1,334
$ 59
Ongoing operations Adjusted EBITDA
$ 1,767
$ 1,349
$ 3,261
$ 2,589
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Retail
$ 773
$ 756
$ 841
$ 940
Texas
$ 311
$ 142
$ 897
$ 632
East
$ 642
$ 418
$ 1,443
$ 932
West
$ 68
$ 49
$ 124
$ 111
Corporate and Other
$ (27)
$ (16)
$ (44)
$ (26)
Asset Closure
$ (23)
$ (17)
$ (42)
$ (41)
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Vistra reported Net Income of $305 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA1 of $1,767 million. Net Income for the second quarter 2026 decreased $22 million compared to the second quarter 2025, driven primarily by an increase in unrealized mark-to-market losses of $488 million on derivative positions, mostly offset by higher realized prices and capacity revenue, and three months' contribution from the plants acquired from Lotus. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter 2026 increased by $418 million compared to the second quarter 2025, driven primarily by higher realized energy and capacity prices and three months' contribution from the plants acquired from Lotus.
Guidance3
($ in millions)
Reaffirmed 2026
Guidance Ranges
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA
$6,800 - $7,600
Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG
$3,925 - $4,725
As of Aug. 3, 2026, Vistra had hedged approximately 100% of its expected generation volumes for 2026, approximately 94% for 2027, and approximately 72% for 2028. The company's comprehensive hedging program provides support for the reaffirmed 2026 guidance ranges and the previously announced Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity2 range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion for 2027.3 The ranges exclude any potential benefits from the pending acquisition of Cogentrix and the signed power purchase agreements with Meta, part of which are expected to contribute to our Adjusted EBITDA in 2027.
Share Repurchase Program
As of Aug. 3, 2026:
Vistra executed ~$6.5 billion in share repurchases since November 2021. Vistra had ~336 million shares outstanding, representing a ~30% reduction of the amount of the shares outstanding on Nov. 2, 2021. ~$1.2 billion of the share repurchase authorization remained available, which we expect to complete no later than year-end 2027. Liquidity
As of June 30, 2026, Vistra had total available liquidity of approximately $6,295 million, including cash and cash equivalents of $435 million, $4,408 million of availability under its corporate revolving credit facility, and $1,452 million of availability under its commodity-linked revolving credit facility. Available capacity under the commodity-linked revolving credit facility reflects the borrowing base of $1,452 million and excludes $298 million of commitments under the facility that were not available to be drawn as of June 30, 2026.
Earnings Webcast
Vistra will host a webcast today, Aug. 7, 2026, beginning at 10 a.m. ET (9 a.m. CT) to discuss these results and related matters. The live webcast and the accompanying slides that will be discussed on the call can be accessed via Vistra's website at www.vistracorp.com under "Investor Relations" and then "Events & Presentations." Participants can also listen by phone by registering here prior to the start time of the call to receive a conference call dial-in number. A replay of the webcast will be available on Vistra's website for one year following the live event.
About Vistra
Vistra (NYSE: VST) is a leading, Fortune 500 integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas, that provides essential resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine. Vistra is a leader in transforming the energy landscape, with an unyielding focus on reliability, affordability, and sustainability. The company safely operates a reliable, efficient power generation fleet of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities while taking an innovative, customer-centric approach to its retail business. Learn more at https://www.vistracorp.com.
1
Ongoing Operations excludes the Asset Closure segment. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth are non-GAAP financial measures. Any reference to "Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG" is a reference to Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth. See the "Non-GAAP Reconciliation" tables for further detail. Total segment information may not tie due to rounding.
2
Midpoint opportunities are not intended to be guidance and represent only our estimate of potential opportunities for Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA in 2027 based on market curves as of October 31, 2025. Actual results could vary and are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and factors, including power price market movements and our hedging strategy. We have not provided a quantitative reconciliation of Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA opportunities for 2027 to GAAP net income (loss) because we cannot, without unreasonable effort, calculate certain reconciling items with confidence due to the variability, complexity, and limited visibility of the adjusting items that would be excluded from Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA in such out year periods.
3
2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance ranges and 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity exclude any potential impact from the pending acquisition of Cogentrix and the announced long-term power purchase agreements with Meta.
About Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Items Affecting Comparability
"Adjusted EBITDA" (EBITDA as adjusted for unrealized gains or losses from hedging activities, transition and merger expenses, non-cash compensation expenses, nuclear decommissioning trust income, asset retirement obligation expenses, and certain other items described from time to time in Vistra's earnings releases), "Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth" (or "Adjusted FCFbG") (cash from operating activities excluding changes in margin deposits and working capital and adjusted for maintenance capital expenditures, other net investment activities, and other items described from time to time in Vistra's earnings releases), "Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA" (adjusted EBITDA less adjusted EBITDA from Asset Closure segment), and "Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth" or "Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG" (adjusted free cash flow before growth less cash flow from operating activities from Asset Closure segment before growth) are "non-GAAP financial measures." A non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of financial performance that excludes or includes amounts so as to be different than the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP in Vistra's consolidated statements of operations, comprehensive income, changes in stockholders' equity and cash flows. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Vistra's non-GAAP financial measures may be different from non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies.
Vistra uses Adjusted EBITDA as a measure of performance and believes that analysis of its business by external users is enhanced by visibility to both Net Income prepared in accordance with GAAP and Adjusted EBITDA. Vistra uses Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth as a measure of liquidity and performance, and believes that analysis of capital available to allocate for debt service, growth, and return of capital to stockholders is supported by disclosure of both cash provided by (used in) operating activities prepared in accordance with GAAP as well as Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth. Vistra uses Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA as a measure of performance and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth as a measure of liquidity and performance, and Vistra's management and board of directors have found it informative to view the Asset Closure segment as separate and distinct from Vistra's ongoing operations. The schedules attached to this earnings release reconcile the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP.
The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the industry and markets in which Vistra Corp. ("Vistra") operates and beliefs of and assumptions made by Vistra's management, involve risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict and are not guarantees of future performance, that could significantly affect the financial results of Vistra. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that are presented herein, or in response to questions or otherwise, that address activities, events or developments that may occur in the future, including such matters as activities related to our financial or operational projections, financial condition and cash flows, projected synergy, net debt targets, capital allocation, capital expenditures, liquidity, projected Adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate, dividend policy, business strategy, competitive strengths, goals, future acquisitions or dispositions, development or operation of power generation assets, market and industry developments and the growth of our businesses and operations, including potential transactions with large load facilities at our nuclear and natural gas plants (often, but not always, through the use of words or phrases, or the negative variations of those words or other comparable words of a future or forward-looking nature, including, but not limited to: "intends," "plans," "will likely," "unlikely," "believe," "confident," "expect," "seek," "anticipate," "estimate," "continue," "will," "shall," "should," "could," "may," "might," "predict," "project," "forecast," "target," "potential," "goal," "objective," "guidance," "on track" and "outlook"), are forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Although Vistra believes that in making any such forward-looking statement, Vistra's expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, any such forward-looking statement involves uncertainties and risks that could cause results to differ materially from those projected in or implied by any such forward-looking statement, including, but not limited to: (i) adverse changes in general economic or market conditions (including changes in interest rates) or changes in political conditions or federal or state laws and regulations; (ii) the ability of Vistra to execute upon its contemplated strategic, capital allocation, performance, and cost-saving initiatives and to successfully integrate acquired businesses, including our ability to close the acquisition of Cogentrix Energy; (iii) actions by credit ratings agencies; (iv) the severity, magnitude and duration of extreme weather events, contingencies and uncertainties relating thereto, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control, and the resulting effects on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows; and (v) those additional risks and factors discussed in reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by Vistra from time to time, including the uncertainties and risks discussed in the sections entitled "Risk Factors" and "Forward-Looking Statements" in Vistra's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 and subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.
Any forward-looking statement speaks only at the date on which it is made, and except as may be required by law, Vistra will not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which it is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible to predict all of them; nor can Vistra assess the impact of each such factor or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.
VISTRA CORP.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Three Months Ended June 30,
Six Months Ended June 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
Operating revenues
$ 4,017
$ 4,250
$ 9,657
$ 8,183
Fuel, purchased power costs, and delivery fees
(1,774)
(1,974)
(4,304)
(4,421)
Operating costs
(853)
(733)
(1,553)
(1,426)
Depreciation and amortization
(445)
(541)
(929)
(1,063)
Selling, general, and administrative expenses
(392)
(419)
(819)
(810)
Impairment of long-lived assets
—
(68)
—
(68)
Operating income
553
515
2,052
395
Other income (deductions), net
186
191
162
186
Interest expense and related charges
(312)
(303)
(575)
(622)
Net income (loss) before income taxes
427
403
1,639
(41)
Income tax (expense) benefit
(122)
(76)
(305)
100
Net income attributable to Vistra
$ 305
$ 327
$ 1,334
$ 59
Cumulative dividends attributable to preferred stock
(47)
(47)
(96)
(96)
Net income (loss) attributable to Vistra common stock
$ 258
$ 280
$ 1,238
$ (37)
VISTRA CORP.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Six Months Ended June 30,
2026
2025
Cash flows — operating activities:
Net income
$ 1,334
$ 59
Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss) to cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization
1,363
1,534
Deferred income tax expense (benefit), net
255
(128)
Impairment of long-lived and other assets
—
68
Unrealized net (gain) loss from mark-to-market valuations of commodities
(251)
551
Unrealized net (gain) loss from mark-to-market valuations of interest rate swaps
(7)
74
Unrealized net (gain) loss from nuclear decommissioning trusts
22
(74)
Asset retirement obligation accretion expense
63
66
Bad debt expense
86
87
Stock-based compensation expense
67
46
Involuntary conversion gain
(48)
(80)
Other, net
—
13
Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
Margin deposits, net
(188)
(368)
Accrued interest
61
(5)
Accrued taxes other than income
(100)
(56)
Accrued employee incentive
(99)
(145)
Other operating assets and liabilities
(336)
(471)
Cash provided by operating activities
2,222
1,171
Cash flows — investing activities:
Capital expenditures, including nuclear fuel purchases and LTSA prepayments
(1,572)
(1,458)
Lotus acquisition purchase price adjustment
6
—
Proceeds from sales of nuclear decommissioning trust fund securities
3,036
3,024
Investments in nuclear decommissioning trust fund securities
(3,037)
(3,035)
Proceeds from sales of environmental allowances
128
25
Purchases of environmental allowances
(201)
(392)
Insurance proceeds for recovery of damaged property, plant, and equipment
234
173
Proceeds from sales of property, plant, and equipment, including nuclear fuel
50
—
Other, net
77
(8)
Cash used in investing activities
(1,279)
(1,671)
Cash flows — financing activities:
Issuances of debt
6,422
209
Repayments/repurchases of debt
(3,859)
(757)
Net borrowings (repayments) under accounts receivable financing
(925)
375
Borrowings under Revolving Credit Facility
400
—
Repayments under Revolving Credit Facility
(780)
—
Borrowings under Commodity-Linked Facility
—
987
Repayments under Commodity-Linked Facility
(1,420)
(126)
Debt issuance costs
(72)
—
Stock repurchases
(709)
(589)
Dividends paid to common stockholders
(154)
(152)
Dividends paid to preferred stockholders
(96)
(96)
Tax withholding on stock-based compensation
(69)
(50)
Principal payment on forward repurchase obligation
(19)
(41)
Other, net
(3)
13
Cash used in financing activities
(1,284)
(227)
Net change in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash (current and noncurrent)
(341)
(727)
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash (current and noncurrent) — beginning balance
822
1,222
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash (current and noncurrent) — ending balance
$ 481
$ 495
VISTRA CORP.
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - ADJUSTED EBITDA
FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2026
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Retail
Texas
East
West
Eliminations /
Corp and
Other
Ongoing
Operations
Consolidated
Asset
Closure
Vistra Corp.
Consolidated
Net income (loss)
$ 484
$ 592
$ (166)
$ 28
$ (517)
$ 421
$ (116)
$ 305
Income tax expense
—
—
—
—
122
122
—
122
Interest expense and related charges (a)
10
(10)
(24)
(4)
339
311
1
312
Depreciation and amortization (b)
10
213
302
14
18
557
3
560
EBITDA before Adjustments
504
795
112
38
(38)
1,411
(112)
1,299
Unrealized net (gain) loss resulting from commodity hedging transactions
261
(446)
629
28
—
472
—
472
Purchase accounting impacts
1
—
(14)
—
(13)
(26)
—
(26)
Non-cash compensation expenses
—
—
—
—
35
35
—
35
Transition and merger expenses
1
—
2
—
12
15
—
15
Insurance income (c)
—
(48)
—
—
—
(48)
—
(48)
Decommissioning-related activities (d)
—
4
(95)
1
—
(90)
90
—
Other, net
6
6
8
1
(23)
(2)
(1)
(3)
Adjusted EBITDA
$ 773
$ 311
$ 642
$ 68
$ (27)
$ 1,767
$ (23)
$ 1,744
(a)
Corporate and Other includes $9 million of unrealized mark-to-market net losses on interest rate swaps.
(b)
Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $30 million and $86 million, respectively, in the Texas and East segments.
(c)
Includes involuntary conversion gain recognized from Martin Lake Incident property damage insurance in the Texas segment.
(d)
Includes NDT (income) loss of the PJM nuclear facilities, ARO and environmental remediation expenses, and other expenses associated with the Moss Landing Incident.
VISTRA CORP.
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - ADJUSTED EBITDA
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2026
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Retail
Texas
East
West
Eliminations /
Corp and Other
Ongoing
Operations
Consolidated
Asset
Closure
Vistra Corp.
Consolidated
Net income (loss)
$ (240)
$ 2,683
$ 10
$ 62
$ (1,045)
$ 1,470
$ (136)
$ 1,334
Income tax expense
—
—
—
—
305
305
—
305
Interest expense and related charges (a)
23
(24)
(46)
(7)
628
574
1
575
Depreciation and amortization (b)
20
424
657
28
36
1,165
6
1,171
EBITDA before Adjustments
(197)
3,083
621
83
(76)
3,514
(129)
3,385
Unrealized net (gain) loss resulting from commodity hedging transactions
1,026
(2,168)
854
37
—
(251)
—
(251)
Purchase accounting impacts
1
—
(15)
—
(13)
(27)
—
(27)
Non-cash compensation expenses
—
—
—
—
67
67
—
67
Transition and merger expenses
—
—
2
—
24
26
—
26
Insurance income (c)
—
(48)
—
—
—
(48)
(6)
(54)
Decommissioning-related activities (d)
—
8
(35)
1
—
(26)
92
66
Other, net
11
22
16
3
(46)
6
1
7
Adjusted EBITDA
$ 841
$ 897
$ 1,443
$ 124
$ (44)
$ 3,261
$ (42)
$ 3,219
(a)
Corporate and Other includes $7 million of unrealized mark-to-market net gains on interest rate swaps.
(b)
Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $66 million and $176 million, respectively, in the Texas and East segments.
(c)
Includes involuntary conversion gain recognized from Martin Lake Incident property damage insurance in Texas segment and revenues from Moss Landing Incident business interruption proceeds in the Asset Closure segment.
(d)
Includes NDT (income) loss of the PJM nuclear facilities, ARO and environmental remediation expenses, and other expenses associated with the Moss Landing Incident.
VISTRA CORP.
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - ADJUSTED EBITDA
FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2025
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Retail
Texas
East
West
Eliminations /
Corp and Other
Ongoing
Operations
Consolidated
Asset
Closure
Vistra Corp.
Consolidated
Net income (loss)
$ (123)
$ 863
$ 120
$ (50)
$ (440)
$ 370
$ (43)
$ 327
Income tax expense
—
—
1
—
75
76
—
76
Interest expense and related charges (a)
17
(18)
(8)
(1)
312
302
1
303
Depreciation and amortization (b)
24
197
412
16
20
669
(1)
668
EBITDA before Adjustments
(82)
1,042
525
(35)
(33)
1,417
(43)
1,374
Unrealized net (gain) loss resulting from commodity hedging transactions
841
(900)
(39)
82
—
(16)
—
(16)
Purchase accounting impacts
8
—
9
—
—
17
—
17
Non-cash compensation expenses
—
—
—
—
25
25
—
25
Transition and merger expenses
5
—
—
—
17
22
—
22
Impairment of long-lived assets
—
68
—
—
—
68
—
68
Insurance income (c)
—
(80)
—
—
—
(80)
(21)
(101)
Decommissioning-related activities (d)
—
4
(81)
—
—
(77)
43
(34)
ERP system implementation expenses
3
3
3
—
—
9
1
10
Other, net (e)
(19)
5
1
2
(25)
(36)
3
(33)
Adjusted EBITDA
$ 756
$ 142
$ 418
$ 49
$ (16)
$ 1,349
$ (17)
$ 1,332
(a)
Corporate and Other includes $26 million of unrealized mark-to-market net losses on interest rate swaps.
(b)
Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $30 million and $92 million, respectively, in the Texas and East segments.
(c)
Includes involuntary conversion gain recognized from Martin Lake Incident property damage insurance in the Texas segment and revenues from Moss Landing Incident business interruption proceeds in the Asset Closure segment.
(d)
Includes NDT (income) loss of the PJM nuclear facilities, ARO and environmental remediation expenses, and other expenses associated with the Moss Landing Incident.
(e)
Includes the final application of bill credits to large commercial and industrial customers that curtailed their usage during Winter Storm Uri in the Retail segment.
VISTRA CORP.
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS - ADJUSTED EBITDA
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2025
(Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars)
Retail
Texas
East
West
Eliminations /
Corp and Other
Ongoing
Operations
Consolidated
Asset
Closure
Vistra Corp.
Consolidated
Net income (loss)
$ 1,009
$ 143
$ (370)
$ 27
$ (639)
$ 170
$ (111)
$ 59
Income tax expense (benefit)
—
—
1
—
(101)
(100)
—
(100)
Interest expense and related charges (a)
35
(32)
(20)
(2)
639
620
2
622
Depreciation and amortization (b)
47
378
808
31
39
1,303
(2)
1,301
EBITDA before Adjustments
1,091
489
419
56
(62)
1,993
(111)
1,882
Unrealized net (gain) loss resulting from commodity hedging transactions
(156)
130
528
50
—
552
(1)
551
Purchase accounting impacts
8
—
23
—
—
31
—
31
Non-cash compensation expenses
—
—
—
—
46
46
—
46
Transition and merger expenses
5
—
1
—
34
40
—
40
Impairment of long-lived assets
—
68
—
—
—
68
—
68
Insurance income (c)
—
(80)
—
—
—
(80)
(21)
(101)
Decommissioning-related activities (d)
—
9
(46)
—
—
(37)
89
52
ERP system implementation expenses
3
3
3
—
—
9
1
10
Other, net (e)
(11)
13
4
5
(44)
(33)
2
(31)
Adjusted EBITDA
$ 940
$ 632
$ 932
$ 111
$ (26)
$ 2,589
$ (41)
$ 2,548
(a)
Corporate and Other includes $74 million of unrealized mark-to-market net losses on interest rate swaps.
(b)
Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $61 million and $176 million, respectively, in the Texas and East segments.
(c)
Includes involuntary conversion gain recognized from Martin Lake Incident property damage insurance in the Texas segment and revenues from Moss Landing Incident business interruption proceeds in the Asset Closure segment.
(d)
Includes NDT (income) loss of the PJM nuclear facilities, ARO and environmental remediation expenses, and other expenses associated with the Moss Landing Incident.
(e)
Includes the final application of bill credits to large commercial and industrial customers that curtailed their usage during Winter Storm Uri in the Retail segment.
Unrealized net (gain) loss resulting from hedging transactions
(728)
(728)
—
—
(728)
(728)
Fresh start/purchase accounting impacts
58
58
—
—
58
58
Non-cash compensation expenses
137
137
—
—
137
137
Transition and merger expenses
29
29
—
—
29
29
Decommissioning-related activities (c)
64
64
22
22
86
86
ERP system implementation expenses & other transformational initiatives
17
17
—
—
17
17
Other, net
(57)
(57)
(12)
(12)
(69)
(69)
Adjusted EBITDA guidance
$ 6,800
$ 7,600
$ (80)
$ (80)
$ 6,720
$ 7,520
1 Regulation G Table 2026 Guidance prepared as of November 6, 2025, based on market curves as of October 31, 2025. Guidance excludes any potential benefit from the nuclear production tax credit.
(a)
Includes $60 million interest related to noncontrolling interest repurchase.
(b)
Includes nuclear fuel amortization of $423 million.
(c)
Represents net of all NDT income (loss) of the PJM nuclear facilities, ARO accretion expense for operating assets and ARO remeasurement impacts for operating assets.
Key Takeaways PPL and Vistra report Q2 results on Aug. 7 amid expectations for 13.1% sector earnings growth.Vistra may benefit from data-center growth, industrial reshoring and stronger PJM and ERCOT demand.PPL may gain from Pennsylvania data centers, Kentucky investment and new retail electric rates. The Zacks Utilities sector’s second-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to have benefited from planned investments aimed at enhancing operational efficiency, ongoing cost-saving initiatives, the implementation of new electric and gas rates, and increasing demand from data centers. Additional support likely came from the reshoring of industries, which generated incremental energy demand, and the adoption of advanced technologies that improved service reliability.
Per the latest Earnings Outlook, the Zacks Utilities sector’s second-quarter earnings are expected to increase 13.1% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenues. Utilities have been focused on strengthening their infrastructure, generating more clean electricity and providing high-quality services to their customers even during adverse weather conditions.
PPL Corporation (PPL - Free Report) and Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) are set to report second-quarter earnings on Aug.7. These announcements will provide insight into how things have shaped up for utilities this earnings season.
Factors to ConsiderUtilities continue to make disciplined capital investments aimed at lowering operating, fuel and maintenance costs. These savings can ultimately help reduce the burden of utility expenses on customers. At the same time, investments in digital technologies, critical system interconnections and data-driven decision-making have enabled utilities to improve operational efficiency and overall performance. Prevailing interest rates might also have supported capital-intensive utilities by allowing them to finance long-term projects at relatively lower borrowing costs.
Utilities continue to benefit from several favorable factors, including the implementation of new electric and natural gas tariffs, customer growth, disciplined cost management and the execution of energy-efficiency initiatives.
Most utilities have committed to delivering 100% clean energy and achieving net-zero emissions over the coming decades. To meet these goals, utilities are steadily reducing reliance on coal and other high-emission generation sources while expanding their portfolios of cleaner, renewable energy resources, including wind, solar and hydropower. Meanwhile, utilities are also expanding battery energy storage capacity to facilitate the greater integration of renewable energy into the power grid.
As demand for reliable, clean energy continues to rise, particularly from AI-driven data centers, utilities are increasingly relying on nuclear power generation to meet customers' needs. In addition, several utilities are advancing the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) as a long-term solution to support the growing demand for carbon-free electricity.
What Our Model PredictsAccording to the Zacks model, a company needs the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Vistra’s second-quarter results are likely to benefit from rising clean electricity demand, fueled by the rapid expansion of U.S. data centers, industrial reshoring and Permian Basin electrification. With a diversified generation portfolio and a high-quality nuclear fleet, the second-quarter earnings are likely to have benefited from accelerating load growth across key markets such as PJM and ERCOT. ( Read more: Vistra to Report Q2 Earnings: What to Expect From the Stock?)
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Vistra this time around. VST has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
PPL’s second-quarter earnings are expected to have benefited from ongoing economic development across its service territories, which is likely to have driven higher electricity demand. Strong demand from data centers in Pennsylvania, along with rising private-sector investment in Kentucky, is expected to have supported revenue and earnings growth.
Additionally, new retail electric rates that took effect on Jan. 1 are likely to provide a further boost to second-quarter results. ( Read more: PPL Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?)
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for PPL this time around. PPL has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Key Takeaways Vistra's Q2 revenues is projected to rise 48.07%, while EPS is expected to increase 52.48%.VST may benefit from data-center demand, nearly fully hedged 2026 generation and Lotus assets.Vistra trades below its industry P/E, while nuclear PPAs and buybacks support long-term returns. Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) is expected to deliver an improvement in both top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 7, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $6.29 billion, indicating an increase of 48.07% from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus mark for VST’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.54 per share, indicating a 52.48% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model UnveilsOur model does not predict an earnings beat for Vistra this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Vistra has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: VST currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
A few utilities reported positive earnings surprises this season and they have nuclear assets like VST, which are utilized to produce reliable clean energy.
Ameren Corporation (AEE - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $1.13 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08 by 4.6%. Duke Energy Corporation's (DUK - Free Report) second-quarter 2026 earnings of $1.43 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29 by 10.9%. NextEra Energy (NEE - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 results with adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.09 by 5.5%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEE, DUK and NEE’s 2026 earnings per share reflects an increase of 0.56%, 0.15% and 0.25%, respectively, in the past 60 days.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped VST’s Q2 EarningsVistra's second-quarter results are likely to benefit from rising clean electricity demand, fueled by the rapid expansion of U.S. data centers, industrial reshoring and Permian Basin electrification. With a diversified generation portfolio and a high-quality nuclear fleet, the second-quarter earnings are likely to have benefited from accelerating load growth across key markets such as PJM and ERCOT.
Vistra's comprehensive hedging program is expected to support second-quarter results, with nearly 100% of its 2026 generation volume hedged against market and price volatility. Contributions from acquired Lotus assets are expected to have boosted second-quarter earnings.
Vistra’s share repurchase program has boosted shareholder value and supported EPS growth, aiding its second-quarter performance. As of May 1, 2026, Vistra has nearly $158 billion available for share repurchases, which might have further supported earnings growth.
Vistra's long-term nuclear PPAs are likely to have supported second-quarter earnings by providing stable cash flows, while its highly efficient generation fleet further contributed to performance.
VST’s Return on EquityVST’s current ROE is pegged at 105.64% compared with its industry’s 11.21%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST Stock Trading at a DiscountVistra is currently valued at a discount compared with its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis. VST is trading at a P/EF12M of 13.62X compared with the industry’s 15.8X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment ThesisVistra is expanding its generation capacity through organic investments and strategic acquisitions, while its integrated business model provides a competitive advantage over non-integrated peers.
The extension of licenses for its nuclear plants enables the company to continue delivering large volumes of carbon-free electricity. Strong free cash flow generation further supports shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividends.
Summing UpVistra is well positioned to benefit from accelerating demand for clean electricity through continued expansion of its clean generation portfolio via acquisitions and organic growth. The company’s disciplined hedging strategy and rising power demand from data centers further strengthen its long-term outlook.
Given its compelling valuation and industry-leading ROE, the stock warrants consideration from long-term investors.
Index Dow Jones +1,75 % na 54108,95 b. S&P 500 +1,52 % na 7715,84 b. Nasdaq Composite +2,11 % na 26461,97 b.
Americké akcie v polovině obchodního dne razantně posilují, s největší pravděpodobností i díky pokračujícím rozhovorům na Blízkém východě. Pomáhá tomu ale i zveřejňování výsledků hospodaření za druhé čtvrtletí, která jsou u většiny firem pozitivní.
Index Nasdaq s převahou technologických titulů v polovině obchodního dne posiluje o 2,1 %, zatímco index S&P přidává 1,52 % a směřuje k další rekordní úrovni. Růst vykazuje i index blue-chip akcií DJI, který navazuje na pondělní rekordní maximum o 1,75 %.
Dnešní výsledky hospodaření prezentovala společnost Caterpillar (CAT), mimochodem druhá největší složka indexu DJI z hlediska váhy. Ta posiluje o téměř 7 % poté, co její tržby a výnosy poprvé překročily hranici 20 miliard dolarů. Akcie společnosti Palantir rostou dokonce o 28 % po čtvrtletí, které generální ředitel Alex Karp označil za „neuvěřitelné“. Jen ve druhém čtvrtletí vzrostly tržby společnosti Palantir z obchodní činnosti s americkou vládou meziročně o 90 % !
Mezi další společnosti, které dnes zveřejní své výsledky, patří Advanced Micro Devices, ten v současné době přidává přes 8 %, za sebou je mají McDonald's, +1 % a Spotify, která však klesá o více jak 2% i přes silný předpoklad růstu tržeb. Největší pozornost však upoutá první čtvrtletní zpráva o hospodaření společnosti SpaceX od jejího vstupu na burzu. Akcie této společnosti se od červnového IPO nacházejí v volném pádu, což vysílá varovný signál ostatním společnostem s tržní kapitalizací v řádu miliard, které uvažují o vstupu na veřejné trhy.
Ropa padá o více jak 5 %, Zlato roste o 1,3 % a Bitcoin přidává 0,5%
Index S&P 500 +1,52 % na 7715,84 b. Nejsilnější sektory S&P Změna Nejslabší sektory S&P Změna Informační technologie +3,7 % Utility -0,7 % Základní materiály +1,6 % Energie -0,6 % Průmysl +1,4 % Zbytná spotřeba -0,4 % Nejsilnější akcie S&P Změna Nejslabší akcie S&P Změna Palantir Technologies (PLTR) +28 % Aptiv (APTV) -18 % Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA) +22 % NRG Energy (NRG) -15 % Gartner (IT) +17 % Rockwell Automation (ROK) -8,0 % Coherent Corp (COHR) +16 % Vistra Corp (VST) -6,6 % Marvell Technology (MRVL) +14 % Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) -5,7 %
David Rojko-Kovačík
Fio banka, a.s.
Prohlášení
Constellation Energy (CEG -0.31%) and Vistra (VST -0.29%) are competing to dominate the rapidly changing American power market. Investors must decide which utility giant offers the most compelling value for the year ahead.
Constellation Energy focuses on clean generation to serve large corporate clients, while Vistra balances a massive retail customer base with a diverse fleet of power plants. Both companies are positioned to benefit from the soaring electricity requirements of artificial intelligence (AI) and the broader shift toward reliable, high-capacity energy sources.
Constellation Energy generates electricity from a vast fleet of clean sources, including nuclear, solar, and wind. Among electric utility stocks, the company is distinguished by its 20-year agreement to supply Microsoft with carbon-free energy. It also maintains a significant agreement with Meta to support sustainability goals using its nuclear stations. Following its roughly $22 billion acquisition of Calpine, the company agreed to sell approximately $5 billion in assets to satisfy regulatory requirements.
In 2025, revenue reached nearly $25.5 billion, representing approximately 8% growth over the previous year. The company reported net income of close to $2.3 billion for the same period. This resulted in a net margin of roughly 9.1%, which measures how much of each dollar in revenue remains as profit after all expenses are paid. This performance highlights the company's ability to generate significant earnings from its massive clean energy infrastructure.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.6x. This ratio helps you understand the total debt relative to shareholders’ invested capital, with lower ratios generally indicating less reliance on borrowed funds. The current ratio is roughly 1.5x, measuring the company's ability to cover its bills due within a year. Free cash flow for the period was nearly $1.3 billion, the cash a business retains after paying for all costs and equipment needed to run operations.
The case for VistraVistra operates a large-scale power generation and retail business across eighteen states. It serves approximately 5 million customers through prominent brands like TXU Energy and Dynegy. The company is currently expanding its capacity by pursuing the acquisition of Cogentrix Energy and its nearly 5.5 gigawatts of natural-gas generation capacity. It has also secured several long-term agreements with technology firms to provide the immense power needed for modern high-performance computing data centers.
In 2025, revenue was nearly $17 billion, down approximately 12% from the prior fiscal year. Despite lower revenue, the company achieved net income of nearly $944 million. The net margin for this period was roughly 5.6%, indicating the percentage of total revenue converted into actual profit. This profitability comes during a period of significant transition as the company integrates recent large-scale asset acquisitions.
Based on the December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 3.8x. This higher ratio suggests the company uses a substantial amount of debt to finance its operations and growth. The current ratio stands at roughly 0.8x, indicating the company has slightly fewer short-term assets than short-term liabilities. Free cash flow for the year was close to $1.3 billion, representing the remaining cash available after the company funded its capital investments and day-to-day operations.
Risk profile comparisonConstellation Energy faces risks from commodity price volatility, as fluctuations in the market prices of nuclear fuel and natural gas can affect earnings. The company relies heavily on its nuclear fleet, meaning any prolonged outages or regulatory hurdles from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission could disrupt operations. Integration risks also exist following the large Calpine acquisition, as combining workforces and systems can be complex. Furthermore, the company must defend against increasing cyber-attacks on critical grid infrastructure by sophisticated actors.
Vistra is exposed to extreme weather events, such as severe winter storms or droughts, which can damage infrastructure and trigger operational failures. The company also faces significant regulatory risks related to coal combustion residuals and evolving EPA climate regulations. Competition from other large power producers, such as NRG Energy, remains a constant factor in the retail market. Additionally, the company manages risks associated with nuclear accidents and potential coal mine incidents, which could result in liabilities that exceed its existing insurance coverage.
Valuation comparisonVistra currently offers a lower entry point based on future earnings estimates and total sales than Constellation Energy.
MetricConstellation EnergyVistraForward P/E22.4x16.2xP/S ratio3.7x3.0xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?Both stocks have delivered almost identical returns over the last five years. Shares of Constellation Energy are up 525% at the time of writing, trailing Vistra’s 559% return. These companies have similar growth and risk profiles, but key differences lie in their asset portfolio and valuations.
Constellation Energy and Vistra are tackling the opportunity of growing energy demand in different ways. CEG is one of the world’s leading power producers. It generates higher revenue than Vistra, which operates in nuclear, natural gas, oil, hydro, wind, and solar. Across these assets, it has an enormous 55 gigawatts of capacity.
Vistra also has a diversified portfolio, though more focused on natural gas. It has about 44 gigawatts of capacity across natural gas, coal, nuclear, renewables, and other sources, but 62% of this capacity comes from natural gas.
Vistra has made strategic acquisitions to position itself for growth, and analysts currently expect a significant increase in the company’s earnings in the coming years. With both companies delivering comparable profit margins over the last year and seeing similar opportunities in the AI/data center market, the better buy comes down to valuation and growth expectations.
Vistra carries a higher financial risk due to its leveraged balance sheet, but it could offer more upside. It trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16 and a PEG ratio of about 0.5x relative to analysts’ long-term earnings growth estimates.
By comparison, Constellation is more expensive, trading at a forward P/E of 22.4, with a PEG multiple of about 1.5x. But it also has a lower debt-to-equity ratio, which investors should consider.
In a well-diversified portfolio, I would rather buy Vistra for its higher earnings growth and return potential.
Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on August 7. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.02 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +100%.
Revenues are expected to be $6.29 billion, up 48.1% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 13.78% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Vistra?For Vistra, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -16.63%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Vistra will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Vistra would post earnings of $2.21 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.87, delivering a surprise of +29.86%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Vistra doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAnother stock from the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, Evergy Inc (EVRG - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $0.82 per share for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate indicates no change from the year-ago quarter. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $1.47 billion, up 2.6% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus EPS estimate for Evergy has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. However, a lower Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -6.75%.
When combined with a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), this Earnings ESP makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Evergy will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Amundi trimmed its stake in Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) by 40.7% during the first quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 1,156,567 shares of the company's stock after selling 793,001 shares during the period. Amundi owned about 0.34% of Vistra worth $173,867,000 as
BankChampaign National Association bought a new position in shares of Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) in the 1st quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund bought 7,209 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,084,000. Vistra makes up about 1.1% of BankChampaign National Association’s portfolio, making the stock its 24th largest position.
Other institutional investors have also bought and sold shares of the company. Hobbs Group Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in Vistra in the 1st quarter valued at about $242,000. Western Wealth Management LLC raised its stake in shares of Vistra by 58.7% in the first quarter. Western Wealth Management LLC now owns 3,383 shares of the company’s stock valued at $509,000 after buying an additional 1,251 shares during the period. Centaurus Financial Inc. raised its stake in Vistra by 28.9% in the 1st quarter. Centaurus Financial Inc. now owns 12,238 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,840,000 after acquiring an additional 2,743 shares during the period. Ashton Thomas Securities LLC raised its position in shares of Vistra by 14.2% in the first quarter. Ashton Thomas Securities LLC now owns 2,420 shares of the company’s stock valued at $364,000 after purchasing an additional 300 shares during the period. Finally, Arkadios Wealth Advisors lifted its position in shares of Vistra by 41.1% during the first quarter. Arkadios Wealth Advisors now owns 9,109 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,369,000 after acquiring an additional 2,655 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 90.88% of the company’s stock.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In A number of research firms have recently commented on VST. Sanford C. Bernstein set a $187.00 price objective on shares of Vistra and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 16th. Zacks Research upgraded Vistra from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. Raymond James Financial set a $208.00 target price on shares of Vistra in a report on Monday, April 27th. Scotiabank raised their price target on Vistra from $293.00 to $298.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Wednesday, July 15th. Finally, JPMorgan Chase & Co. decreased their price objective on shares of Vistra from $240.00 to $231.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, April 30th. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have given a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $229.88.
Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on Vistra
Vistra Price Performance VST opened at $148.31 on Friday. Vistra Corp. has a 12-month low of $132.66 and a 12-month high of $219.82. The company has a market cap of $50.01 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.84 and a beta of 1.40. The stock has a fifty day simple moving average of $156.69 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $158.12. The company has a current ratio of 0.90, a quick ratio of 0.79 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.51.
Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, May 7th. The company reported $2.87 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $1.32 by $1.55. Vistra had a net margin of 11.52% and a return on equity of 105.64%. The business had revenue of $5.64 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.22 billion. Research analysts predict that Vistra Corp. will post 9.42 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Stockholders of record on Monday, September 21st will be given a $0.23 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Monday, September 21st. This represents a $0.92 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 0.6%. This is a boost from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra’s payout ratio is presently 15.41%.
Key Stories Impacting Vistra Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:
Positive Sentiment: Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Vistra to $212 and maintained a favorable view, providing a bullish valuation signal and potential support for the stock. Morgan Stanley Raises Vistra Price Target to $212 Positive Sentiment: Morgan Stanley also issued a “Buy” rating, reinforcing the view that Vistra’s power-generation assets and exposure to rising electricity demand could offer further upside. Vistra Gets a Buy from Morgan Stanley Positive Sentiment: Vistra declared a quarterly common-stock dividend of $0.23 per share, payable September 30 to shareholders of record September 21. The roughly $75 million distribution offers continued shareholder returns and was described as a modest increase from the prior dividend. Vistra Declares Dividend Neutral Sentiment: Vistra’s valuation appears mixed following its pullback. Potential growth from data-center electricity demand remains an investment theme, but new limits affecting data-center development in New York could constrain some expansion expectations. Vistra Stock Looks Reasonable Following New York Data Center Limits Negative Sentiment: Recent analyst downgrades and a pessimistic TD Cowen forecast pressured the shares, highlighting concerns about Vistra’s outlook and contributing to the recent decline. TD Cowen Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Vistra Insider Activity In other news, Director John R. Sult sold 6,500 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, June 18th. The shares were sold at an average price of $170.00, for a total value of $1,105,000.00. Following the transaction, the director owned 70,714 shares in the company, valued at approximately $12,021,380. This represents a 8.42% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, Director Paul M. Barbas sold 244 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, June 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $153.00, for a total value of $37,332.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 53,006 shares in the company, valued at $8,109,918. This trade represents a 0.46% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders sold a total of 41,588 shares of company stock valued at $6,739,227 over the last ninety days. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
Vistra Company Profile (Free Report)
Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.
Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.
See Also Five stocks we like better than Vistra Microsoft Just Flipped the AI Spending Narrative Overnight Qualcomm’s Turnaround Is Working, So Why Is Wall Street Selling? Meta’s Earnings Show Why Wall Street Is Losing Patience With AI Spending Can Starbucks Keep This Turnaround Going? The Latest Results Say Yes Want to see what other hedge funds are holding VST? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report).
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Speaking to a Stanford University computer science class in May, Nvidia (NVDA -3.55%) CEO Jensen Huang raised eyebrows by saying, "The amount of energy that we need for [AI] computing is likely probably 1,000 times more than we currently have." He didn't add any additional detail to his mental math and even conceded, "I wouldn't be surprised if we're off by a couple orders of magnitude." If his goal was simply to provide some tangible perspective -- for effect -- on what the energy industry needs to accomplish in the foreseeable future, then mission accomplished.
The projected scope makes sense. Also in May, Goldman Sachs predicted that the power U.S. data centers alone would need would more than double between 2025 and 2027, from 31 gigawatts (GW) to 66 GW. At peak usage, this would push the domestic AI industry's consumption from just over 4% of the nation's total power output to well over 8%. Extending this trend, Bloom Energy predicts artificial intelligence could be using up to 12% of the United States' produced electricity by 2030, and it would still just be getting started.
The same dynamics are taking shape outside of the U.S. as well, of course.
It's an opportunity, to be sure, but only for companies already ready to capitalize on it. To this end, here's a closer look at three industrial names already seeing the upside of the surge in power demand.
1. GE Vernova GE Vernova (GEV -4.57%) is the former power-generation arm of industrial titan General Electric, which began splitting itself into smaller, more manageable pieces in 2021. This particular offshoot makes everything from wind turbines to nuclear reactors to hydropower systems to power grid solutions.Its red-hot equipment right now, however, is natural gas turbines.
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Originally intended for utility companies, these power plants -- capable of producing anywhere from 34.5 megawatts to 571 megawatts of power -- are ideally suited to power data centers due to their scalability, ability to be throttled as needed, and relatively small footprint. Just as important, on-premises power generation means AI data center owners/operators don't need to wait for time-consuming (and often costly) connections to a power grid. That's why PwC believes the United States' data center-driven demand for natural gas could easily quintuple between last year and 2035, with an outside chance of further growth taking shape even sooner.
GE Vernova won't supply all the turbines linked to this surge in demand for natural gas. With a companywide backlog of $176 billion (nearly two-thirds of which is gas turbine-related) versus 2026's expected revenue of about $46 billion, however -- and a gas power equipment backlog that grew from 100 GW to 116 GW in Q2 alone - this company's certainly going to meet a huge chunk of this demand.
2. Vistra Technically speaking, Vistra (VST -3.92%) isn't an industrial company. It's categorized as a power utility, though even by utility-stock standards, it's not exactly your typical power company. While it does directly provide electricity to about 5 million residential and business customers, Vistra's core business is generating and then selling electricity on a wholesale basis to other utility companies sharing the same grid.
The company's now making the most of this flexibility too. For instance, rather than merely connecting new artificial intelligence data centers to existing grid infrastructure and treating them like any other customer, Vistra is now entering long-term power purchase agreements directly with institutions. Early this year, the company announced it had inked long-term deals with Amazon and Facebook parent Meta Platforms to supply both tech companies with the electricity needed for existing and new AI data centers.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Image source: Nvidia.
Such arrangements still account for only a relatively small part of the company's total business. In that these long-term agreements allow Vistra to make capital investments -- particularly in nuclear power -- with a reasonably assured return on the investment, the company can add power production capacity with the confidence that ultimately allows it to build more efficient infrastructure.
In other words, it's a win-win. That's why you shouldn't be surprised to see more such dealmaking in the future, particularly from Vistra, which has already shown its interest in custom-designed power provision solutions.
3. Caterpillar Finally, add Caterpillar (CAT -6.91%) -- yes, the construction equipment company -- to your list of stocks that will benefit from the AI industry's exploding demand for electricity. It's already benefiting, in fact.
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You know it best as a maker of bulldozers, backhoes, and dump trucks. And that's still a huge part of its business to be sure. Largely overlooked, though, is that Caterpillar also manufactures high-capacity mobile diesel and gas generators, battery-based energy storage systems, and more, all of which are proving to be much-needed stopgap solutions while data center owners and operators are waiting on more permanent equipment. Outfits including Space Exploration Technologies and Microsoft (through Nscale) are utilizing off-grid generators to power some of their AI data centers.
To this end, while all of Caterpillar's business lines grew last year, its power generation arm, which provides these generators, experienced company-leading growth of roughly 30%. The company expects this business to double between 2025 and 2030, and S&P Global doesn't exactly disagree with this outlook. It's looking for Caterpillar's power and energy division to grow another 17% this year -- from last year's revenue of $33.4 billion -- en route to $54.8 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Vistra (NYSE: VST) announced today that its board of directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share of Vistra's common stock, reflecting an estimated aggregate payment of approximately $75 million this quarter. The common dividend is payable on Sept. 30, 2026, to common stockholders of record as of Sept. 21, 2026. The ex-dividend date for the common dividend will be Sept. 21, 2026.
The board of directors also declared a semi-annual dividend on the company's 8.0% Series A Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock. The Series A dividend is $40.00 per preferred share, or $80.00 per share of Series A preferred stock on an annualized basis. The Series A dividend is payable on Oct. 15, 2026, to Series A preferred stockholders of record as of Oct. 1, 2026.
About Vistra
Vistra (NYSE: VST) is a leading Fortune 500 integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas, that provides essential resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine. Vistra is a leader in transforming the energy landscape, with an unyielding focus on reliability, affordability, and sustainability. The company safely operates a reliable, efficient power generation fleet of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities while taking an innovative, customer-centric approach to its retail business. Learn more at vistracorp.com.
Atreides Management LP acquired a new position in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) during the 1st quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor acquired 523,788 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $78,741,000. Vistra comprises 1.6% of Atreides Management LP’s investment portfolio, making the stock its 19th largest holding. Atreides Management LP owned approximately 0.16% of Vistra as of its most recent SEC filing.
A number of other institutional investors and hedge funds have also bought and sold shares of VST. Empowered Funds LLC lifted its holdings in shares of Vistra by 24.1% during the 1st quarter. Empowered Funds LLC now owns 20,190 shares of the company’s stock worth $2,371,000 after acquiring an additional 3,920 shares during the last quarter. Woodline Partners LP raised its holdings in shares of Vistra by 40.7% during the 1st quarter. Woodline Partners LP now owns 28,744 shares of the company’s stock valued at $3,376,000 after buying an additional 8,312 shares in the last quarter. Focus Partners Wealth lifted its position in Vistra by 37.3% in the 1st quarter. Focus Partners Wealth now owns 7,828 shares of the company’s stock worth $920,000 after buying an additional 2,125 shares during the last quarter. Sivia Capital Partners LLC bought a new stake in Vistra in the 2nd quarter worth approximately $269,000. Finally, Slocum Gordon & Co LLP boosted its stake in Vistra by 20.0% in the second quarter. Slocum Gordon & Co LLP now owns 1,200 shares of the company’s stock worth $233,000 after buying an additional 200 shares in the last quarter. 90.88% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
Vistra News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:
Positive Sentiment: Goldman Sachs initiated or reiterated a Buy rating on Vistra, adding support to the long-term investment case. Vistra Corp Receives a Buy from Goldman Sachs Positive Sentiment: Morgan Stanley raised its price target from $208 to $212 and maintained an Overweight rating, implying substantial upside from recent trading levels. Morgan Stanley price target report Positive Sentiment: Analyst commentary continues to favor Vistra over NRG Energy, citing stronger return on equity, margins, earnings momentum and market-share gains, although VST carries a higher valuation. VST or NRG Which Utility Stock Has Greater Upside Potential Positive Sentiment: Vistra is included among utility stocks expected to outperform second-quarter earnings estimates. Its growth outlook is supported by rising electricity demand from data centers and hyperscalers, while share repurchases and a planned $3 billion buyback-and-dividend program may provide additional shareholder support. Utility stocks expected to outperform earnings estimates Vistra strategic edge and rising energy demand Neutral Sentiment: Call-option activity was unusually high, with traders acquiring approximately 39,705 contracts, about 30% above typical volume. This signals speculative bullish interest but does not guarantee near-term buying in the stock. Negative Sentiment: TD Cowen reduced its price target from $230 to $222, even while retaining a Buy rating. The reduction likely contributed to near-term selling pressure and reinforced concerns about valuation or expectations. Vistra trading following analyst downgrade Negative Sentiment: Vistra underperformed while the broader market improved, indicating company-specific selling rather than a broad market decline. Recent weakness also places the shares below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a potentially negative technical signal. Vistra Stock Performance Vistra stock opened at $148.54 on Wednesday. The company has a current ratio of 0.90, a quick ratio of 0.79 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.51. The firm has a market cap of $50.09 billion, a P/E ratio of 24.88 and a beta of 1.40. Vistra Corp. has a 1-year low of $132.66 and a 1-year high of $219.82. The firm has a 50-day moving average of $156.73 and a 200-day moving average of $158.31.
Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, May 7th. The company reported $2.87 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.32 by $1.55. Vistra had a return on equity of 105.64% and a net margin of 11.52%.The company had revenue of $5.64 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.22 billion. Sell-side analysts expect that Vistra Corp. will post 9.52 EPS for the current year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, June 30th. Investors of record on Monday, June 22nd were paid a $0.229 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, June 22nd. This is a positive change from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 0.6%. Vistra’s payout ratio is 15.41%.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of research analysts have commented on the stock. Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a “buy” rating and set a $190.00 price target on shares of Vistra in a research report on Thursday, May 21st. Seaport Research Partners reaffirmed a “buy” rating and set a $230.00 target price on shares of Vistra in a report on Monday, June 15th. Morgan Stanley lifted their target price on shares of Vistra from $208.00 to $212.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a research report on Tuesday. Raymond James Financial set a $208.00 price target on shares of Vistra in a research note on Monday, April 27th. Finally, Sanford C. Bernstein set a $187.00 price objective on Vistra and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 16th. Three research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have given a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, Vistra currently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $229.88.
Read Our Latest Stock Report on VST
Insider Activity at Vistra In other Vistra news, Director Paul M. Barbas sold 244 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Monday, June 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $153.00, for a total transaction of $37,332.00. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 53,006 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $8,109,918. The trade was a 0.46% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, Director John R. Sult sold 6,500 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, June 18th. The stock was sold at an average price of $170.00, for a total transaction of $1,105,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director owned 70,714 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $12,021,380. This trade represents a 8.42% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last ninety days, insiders have sold 41,588 shares of company stock worth $6,739,227. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.
Vistra Company Profile (Free Report)
Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.
Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.
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In the latest trading session, Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) closed at $148.64, marking a -5.37% move from the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.21%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 1.03%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 0.22%.
The company's stock has dropped by 3.26% in the past month, falling short of the Utilities sector's loss of 1.77% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.7%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Vistra Corp. in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on August 7, 2026. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $2.41, indicating a 138.61% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $6.38 billion, indicating a 50.07% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $9.52 per share and revenue of $23.86 billion, which would represent changes of +80.99% and +34.54%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Vistra Corp. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. Therefore, positive revisions in estimates convey analysts' confidence in the business performance and profit potential.
Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.03% lower. Currently, Vistra Corp. is carrying a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at its valuation, Vistra Corp. is holding a Forward P/E ratio of 16.5. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 18.3, so one might conclude that Vistra Corp. is trading at a discount comparatively.
The Utility - Electric Power industry is part of the Utilities sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 169, positioning it in the bottom 32% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Remember to apply Zacks.com to follow these and more stock-moving metrics during the upcoming trading sessions.
