If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) . This company, which is in the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, shows potential for another earnings beat.
This company has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 23.37%.
For the last reported quarter, Vistra came out with earnings of $1.8 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54 per share, representing a surprise of 16.88%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $2.21 per share and it actually produced earnings of $2.87 per share, delivering a surprise of 29.86%.
Price and EPS Surprise
Thanks in part to this history, there has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Vistra lately. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the stock is positive, which is a great indicator of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Vistra has an Earnings ESP of +8.20% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on November 6, 2026.
With the Earnings ESP metric, it's important to note that a negative value reduces its predictive power; however, a negative Earnings ESP does not indicate an earnings miss.
Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.
Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $140.83, demonstrating a -9.81% change from the preceding day's closing price. This change lagged the S&P 500's 1.21% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.02%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 2.6%.
The stock of company has risen by 13.17% in the past month, leading the Utilities sector's gain of 2.36% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.03%.
The upcoming earnings release of Vistra Corp. will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings report is expected on November 6, 2026. On that day, Vistra Corp. is projected to report earnings of $2.89 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 65.14%. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $7.55 billion, indicating a 51.85% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $9.04 per share and revenue of $22.3 billion. These totals would mark changes of +71.86% and +25.73%, respectively, from last year.
Investors should also take note of any recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Vistra Corp. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.03% lower. Vistra Corp. is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, Vistra Corp. is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 17.28. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 17.28, so one might conclude that Vistra Corp. is trading at no noticeable deviation comparatively.
The Utility - Electric Power industry is part of the Utilities sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 154, placing it within the bottom 38% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.
Two power companies that have sizable Texas exposure are stuck in limbo while regulators audit every project in the state's data center queue. NRG Energy Inc. NYSE: NRG and Vistra Corp. NYSE: VST could be major beneficiaries of surging demand for electricity as AI drives investment in facilities across the state.
When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?
Choosing between Bloom Energy (BE -1.58%) and Vistra (VST +0.41%) requires deciding between a specialized clean-technology manufacturer and a diversified utility giant that is currently benefiting from surging power demand.
Bloom Energy provides decentralized power solutions using its proprietary fuel cells, while Vistra offers a massive scale of generation including nuclear and natural gas. Both companies are increasingly essential to the expanding electricity needs of modern digital infrastructure but offer very different risk and reward profiles for investors.
The case for Bloom EnergyBloom Energy designs and manufactures solid oxide fuel cell systems that provide onsite electricity for commercial and industrial customers. The company focuses on the industrial stocks sector by selling its Energy Servers to data centers, semiconductor manufacturers, and hospitals. A significant part of its current strategy involves a partnership with American Electric Power (AEP +2.00%) to provide up to 1 gigawatt of power for high-demand applications. It also maintains a strategic relationship with Brookfield (BN +2.36%), which includes a $5.0 billion financing framework for future projects. Other key relationships involve SK ecoplant in the Republic of Korea, which serves as a distribution partner and equity holder.
In its latest annual report for FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $2.0 billion, representing a significant revenue growth of approximately 37.3% compared to the previous year. This growth was driven by increasing demand for onsite power solutions in the data center and AI infrastructure markets. However, the company reported a net loss of approximately $88.4 million for the same period. While this was a net loss, it showed substantial improvement from the much larger loss reported in FY 2023, suggesting progress toward reaching positive net income.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, Bloom Energy reported a current ratio of approximately 6.0x. This liquidity metric measures a company's ability to pay short-term obligations with its current assets. The company also generated close to $57.2 million in free cash flow, which is cash from operations minus capital expenditures. Its debt-to-equity ratio, a measure of how much debt is used to finance assets relative to shareholder equity, stood at roughly 3.9x during the same period.
The case for VistraVistra operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company with a capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts. The company serves roughly 5 million residential and commercial customers through various retail brands. A major focus of current operations is supplying power to large-load AI data center customers, including a notable arrangement to supply the needs of Meta Platforms. Vistra is also currently executing its acquisition of Cogentrix natural gas assets to further expand its generation footprint and meet rising electricity demand.
For FY 2025, Vistra reported revenue of approximately $17.7 billion, which was a revenue growth of nearly 3% over the previous year. The company achieved a net income of roughly $944.0 million during this period, resulting in a net margin of approximately 5.3%. While net income declined from the $2.7 billion reported in FY 2024, the company maintained steady top-line performance while integrating new assets and managing its extensive generation fleet.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, Vistra reported a current ratio of approximately 0.8x. This liquidity metric suggests the company manages its current assets tightly against its current liabilities, which is common in capital-intensive industries. The company reported free cash flow of nearly $129.0 million for the period. Free cash flow is the cash a company generates after accounting for cash outflows to support operations and maintain its capital assets, calculated as cash from operations minus capital expenditures. Its debt-to-equity ratio, which compares total liabilities to shareholder equity to measure financial leverage, was roughly 4.0x.
Risk profile comparisonBloom Energy faces significant risks from its reliance on emerging hydrogen and distributed energy markets that may not achieve expected demand. The company is currently managing multiple securities class action lawsuits filed in 2026 alleging misstatements regarding its supply chain. Operational hurdles include a 2-gigawatt manufacturing expansion goal and competition for raw materials like Chinese-sourced scandium. Additionally, volatile trade tariffs and the potential expiration of state-level fuel cell net metering tariffs could impact the economic appeal of its products in key markets.
Vistra remains sensitive to wholesale power market price fluctuations and potential imbalances between electricity demand and generation supply. The company manages regulatory uncertainty regarding environmental rules, including litigation related to coal combustion residuals. Project execution risks are present for its nuclear uprates and renewable energy portfolio expansion. Furthermore, Vistra faces intense retail competition and operational threats from extreme weather events or cybersecurity attacks on its critical generation and information technology infrastructure.
Valuation comparisonVistra presents a more conservative valuation compared to the high-growth premium currently assigned to Bloom Energy by the market.
MetricBloom EnergyVistraForward P/E83.5x17.3xP/S ratio21.4x2.6xValuation metrics include sourcing from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
The P/S ratio measures the market value of a company relative to its sales over the past twelve months. The Forward P/E ratio compares the stock price to future earnings estimates.
I'd go with Bloom Energy, though Vistra is more interesting than its reputation as a traditional power company implies. But Bloom's Q2 2026 was truly striking. Revenue hit $1 billion for the first time in company history, up 166% year over year. Earnings per share doubled analyst estimates, and management raised full-year guidance substantially. AI data centers are driving demand for Bloom's on-site fuel cell power systems faster than most investors anticipated, and the backlog keeps expanding.
To its credit, Vistra is executing well. In Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA grew more than 30% year over year and the company announced a major digital infrastructure partnership with KKR and Nvidia. Its diversified generation portfolio, including nuclear, positions it well for rising power demand over the long term.
But Bloom is simply the more dynamic opportunity right now. For investors comfortable with a higher-risk, higher-reward clean energy bet, the momentum behind its Q2 results is hard to ignore. Q3 results are due Oct. 22 and will offer the next read on whether that momentum is holding.
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Over the past month, shares of this company have returned +6.3%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.7% change. During this period, the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, which Vistra falls in, has gained 1%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Vistra is expected to post earnings of $2.89 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +65.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $9.04 points to a change of +71.9% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $10.54 indicates a change of +16.6% from what Vistra is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Vistra.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Vistra, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $7.76 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +56.2%. For the current and next fiscal years, $22.59 billion and $25.77 billion estimates indicate +27.4% and +14.1% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryVistra reported revenues of $4.02 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -5.5%. EPS of $1.8 for the same period compares with $1.01 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.29 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -36.17%. The EPS surprise was +16.88%.
Over the last four quarters, Vistra surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Vistra is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Vistra. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.
One announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was enough to send Vistra (VST -1.40%) shares soaring 11% in a single day. With artificial intelligence driving demand for reliable electricity, it looks like a catalyst that could keep the momentum going. But before rushing to buy, there's something important to know about the investment case.
Image source: Getty Images.
Vistra's nuclear opportunity just got a major boost
On Oct. 5, 2026, the DOE announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to help modernize three of the company's nuclear power plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Rather than build an entirely new fleet, the funding is intended to help Vistra increase the electricity output of its existing reactors. The projects are expected to add 433 megawatts of nuclear capacity, meaning more electricity from plants that Vistra already runs. They would also extend the plants' operating lives by another 20 years.
That matters because electricity demand continues to accelerate as data centers and industrial facilities require more power. On top of that, nuclear energy is particularly attractive for these customers because it can deliver electricity around the clock.
Vistra already owns an established fleet of power generation assets and serves retail customers. That combination gives it an opportunity to benefit from rising power demand without relying too much on new construction.
It's a promising setup, but investors still need to see evidence that the business is performing well.
Is Vistra stock worth buying after this big jump?
Vistra's second-quarter 2026 results offered some encouragement. Specifically, Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating performance, rose more than 30% year over year to around $1.8 billion. Management said the improvement mainly came from higher energy and capacity prices, as well as contributions from acquired power plants.
Together, these results suggest that Vistra isn't a speculative company. It already operates a large electricity business, and it has opportunities to expand earnings as demand grows and capacity upgrades take effect.
VST Vistra$152.02-$2.15 (-1.40%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
The economic benefit comes from what Vistra actually does with the money. If the upgrades deliver additional electricity, extend plant operating lives, and generate attractive returns, the financing could help Vistra expand its nuclear business. In turn, that could mean more electricity output and further revenue growth if the company secures the loan.
Analysts seem to agree. A consensus among 18 of them rates Vistra a Strong Buy. Their target prices, meanwhile, suggest between 11% and 68% of potential upside over the next 12 months.
The stock also trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 26, which means shares cost about $26 for every $1 of Vistra's earnings. That's not exactly cheap for a utility business, but buyers may be willing to pay a premium if they believe rising electricity demand and a growing nuclear business will drive earnings higher.
That said, while the stock jumped on the news, there is a bit of fine print investors need to be aware of.
The $4.2 billion loan commitment comes with a catch
There's a detail investors shouldn't overlook: The DOE commitment is financing, not a government grant. Vistra must still meet the technical, legal, environmental, and financial requirements before it can secure that financing. Beyond that, the company needs to repay the loan at some point.
Sure, getting access to that additional capital would go a long way, but the company still faces execution risks. For example, if the projects run into delays or cost more than expected, the payoff could take longer to arrive.
And while long-term contracts and government financing strengthen the investment case, neither guarantees results.
But Vistra does have a lot going for it, from rising AI-driven electricity demand to long-term nuclear power deals and a potential $4.2 billion DOE loan.
If the company can put that financing to good use and successfully expand the business, investors could find plenty of room for earnings growth in the coming years.
In the latest trading session, Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) closed at $153.99, marking a +1.45% move from the previous day. The stock outperformed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.33%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 1.08%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.08%.
Shares of the company witnessed a gain of 8.12% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Utilities sector with its loss of 0.69%, and the S&P 500's gain of 1.41%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Vistra Corp. in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on November 6, 2026. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $2.89, reflecting a 65.14% increase from the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $7.76 billion, indicating a 56.19% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $9.04 per share and a revenue of $22.59 billion, demonstrating changes of +71.86% and +27.35%, respectively, from the preceding year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Vistra Corp. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 1.88% lower. Vistra Corp. is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #5 (Strong Sell).
Looking at valuation, Vistra Corp. is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 16.79. This indicates a discount in contrast to its industry's Forward P/E of 17.16.
The Utility - Electric Power industry is part of the Utilities sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 92, placing it within the top 38% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) today announced its redemption of all outstanding shares of its 8.0% Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A, $0.01 par value per share (the "Series A Preferred Stock") in accordance with the terms and conditions set forth in the governing documents for the Series A Preferred Stock.
All one million shares of the Series A Preferred Stock (CUSIP: 92840M AB8 (Rule 144A) and U92266 AA0 (Regulation S)) are being redeemed at a price of $1,000 per share of preferred stock representing $1.0 billion in aggregate liquidation preference. Vistra had previously declared distributions on the Series A Preferred Shares payable on Oct. 15, 2026, thus there were no accrued and unpaid dividends as of the redemption date.
A formal notice of redemption was delivered to holders of record in accordance with the terms of the Series A Preferred Stock and applicable procedures of Cede & Co., the nominee of DTC. Additional information regarding the redemption, including payment procedures, the treatment of accrued dividends, and any required holder actions, was provided in the official notice of redemption and related materials distributed by Equiniti Trust Company, LLC, as redemption and paying agent.
On and after the redemption date, the Series A Preferred Stock ceased to be outstanding, dividends ceased to accrue on such shares, and all rights of holders were terminated other than the right to receive the applicable redemption price and any accrued and unpaid dividends payable in accordance with the terms of the Series A Preferred Stock.
About Vistra
Vistra (NYSE: VST) is a leading, Fortune 500 integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas, that provides essential resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine. Vistra is a leader in transforming the energy landscape, with an unyielding focus on reliability, affordability, and sustainability. The company safely operates a reliable, efficient power generation fleet of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities while taking an innovative, customer-centric approach to its retail business.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
On Oct. 5, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Dominance Financing announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to Vistra (VST -6.51%) to add power capacity to its massive portfolio without constructing new power plants or reactors.
The loan commitment comes as hyperscalers seek reliable electricity with utility operators scrambling to add capacity. Vistra is in an enviable position with a massive power-generation fleet, and the loan will help the company build on its strong market position.
Vistra stock has drawn attention from investors looking to capitalize on the AI electricity demand boom, but it has also faced significant volatility. With its stock down 23% over the past year, is it time to buy the energy stock?
Image source: Getty Images.
Here's what Vistra plans to do with its $4 billion loan DOE funding for Vistra will help finance nuclear uprates and modernization across its massive energy fleet, focusing on three plants in the PJM Interconnection region: Beaver Valley in Pennsylvania, and Davis-Besse and Perry in Ohio.
The investment will help these reactors operate another 20 years beyond their existing licenses, add 433 megawatts of clean baseload capacity without building new reactors or new transmission corridors, and preserve nearly 4 gigawatts of existing generation that serves more than 3 million homes.
In PJM Interconnection, which serves 13 states and the District of Columbia in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern U.S., the 2028-2029 base residual auction recently cleared at the $325-per-megawatt-day price ceiling across all zones, raising concerns that such elevated pricing is unsustainable.
One of the biggest risks for independent power producers comes from regulators imposing price caps or other market interventions. This expanded output meets surging regional electricity demand, notably from artificial intelligence data centers, and increases capacity as residential customers push back on rising electricity rates.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
71/100
Today's Change
(
-6.51
%) $
-10.57
Current Price
$
151.79
Vistra's business model captures upside from growing energy demand Vistra's strength is its independent power producer (IPP) business model. As an IPP, Vistra operates outside of the traditional regulated utility framework. Regulated utilities operate under strict government oversight and typically earn guaranteed, state-approved returns on invested capital.
In contrast, IPPs own generation assets and sell electricity directly into competitive wholesale markets or through contracts. This business model exposes Vistra to electricity price swings, allowing it to capture upside in tight energy markets but also downside if demand softens.
Vistra stands out among IPPs for its scale and power-generation assets in rapidly growing markets, including PJM Interconnection and ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas). PJM is home to "data center alley" in Virginia, while Texas is also seeing massive growth from AI data centers and chip manufacturing.
Despite a wave of data center deals this year, Vistra stock is down 27% from its all-time high stock price of nearly $220 per share last year. The stock traded at around 25 times its 2026 forecast earnings, but after the decline, it now trades at 18.5 times earnings. With earnings projected to grow 18% each of the next two years, the dip allows investors to buy Vistra stock today.
On October 14, 2026, Vistra Corp VST shares experienced a notable decline of 6.5%, bringing the current price to $151.79. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has fluctuated between a high of $217.10 and a low of $132.66, reflecting significant volatility in its trading performance.
GF Value™ verdict: $156.25, indicating the stock is 2.9% undervalued.GF Score™ of 81/100, suggesting a strong overall financial health and market position.Notable signal: Insider selling has outpaced buying, with a net selling of $111.4M over the past year.Is VST Overvalued or Undervalued?Vistra Corp's current price of $151.79 is slightly below the GF Value™ estimate of $156.25, suggesting that the stock is undervalued by approximately 2.9%. This valuation analysis reveals a margin of safety for potential investors, indicating that there may be an opportunity for growth if the market corrects its pricing to align more closely with the intrinsic value as calculated by GuruFocus. The GF Valuation label categorizes the stock as fairly valued, which, in conjunction with its current price, emphasizes the importance of considering both market conditions and company fundamentals.
GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary estimate of a stock's intrinsic value, derived from a combination of historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance projections. In the case of Vistra Corp, the slight undervaluation suggests that there may be potential for price appreciation, assuming the company's fundamentals remain stable or improve in the coming quarters.
How Does VST's Valuation Compare to Its History?MetricCurrentHistoricalP/E (TTM)25.6x26.9xForward P/E14.3xN/AVistra Corp's current P/E ratio of 25.6x is 5% below its 5-year median P/E of 26.9x, indicating that the stock is trading at a lower valuation compared to its historical averages. The forward P/E of 14.3x further suggests a potential for growth relative to earnings expectations. This P/E analysis aligns with the GF Value™ verdict, reinforcing the notion that the stock is currently undervalued based on its historical performance metrics.
What Does VST's GF Score™ Tell Us?The GF Score™ assesses a company's overall financial condition and market position, taking into account various factors such as financial strength, profitability, growth potential, valuation, and momentum. Vistra Corp's GF Score™ of 81/100 indicates a strong position; however, the specific sub-ranks highlight areas of both strength and weakness.
MetricRatingGF Score™81/100Financial Strength3/10Profitability6/10Growth10/10Valuation7/10Momentum5/10The strongest area for Vistra Corp is its growth rank of 10/10, indicating robust potential for future increases in revenue and earnings. However, the financial strength rank of 3/10 raises concerns regarding the company's stability and ability to weather economic downturns. Investors should be mindful of these contrasting signals when evaluating the overall attractiveness of the stock.
What Are Gurus and Insiders Doing with VST?Currently, 11 gurus hold Vistra Corp shares, with 8 adding to their positions and 4 trimming their holdings in recent quarters. This mixed activity among institutional investors indicates a degree of confidence in the company's prospects, but the overall trend still reflects caution.
In terms of insider activity, there has been a significant net selling of $111.4M over the past 12 months, with insiders buying $1.2M compared to $112.6M in sales. This pattern of selling raises red flags regarding insider sentiment, as it suggests that those with the most intimate knowledge of the company's operations may be less optimistic about its short-term outlook. This insider activity could be a critical signal for potential investors to consider.
What This Means for InvestorsConsidering the current GF Value™ estimate and the stock's performance metrics, Vistra Corp appears to be undervalued at $151.79, presenting a potential opportunity for investors. However, the concerning insider selling and moderate financial strength rank suggest caution is warranted. Prospective investors should weigh these factors carefully before making decisions.
For a more detailed analysis, visit the Vistra Corp VST stock page, where you can explore additional insights and metrics.
Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat is VST's GF Score™?
VST has a GF Score™ of 81/100, indicating a strong overall financial health and market position based on various fundamental metrics.
Is VST overvalued or undervalued?
VST is currently undervalued with a GF Value™ of $156.25, suggesting that the stock has room for price appreciation.
What is VST's P/E ratio?
VST's P/E ratio is 25.6x, which is 5% below its 5-year median of 26.9x, indicating it is currently trading at a lower valuation compared to its historical averages.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Disclosures
I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.
Vistra has shed nearly a fifth of its value over the past year while Wall Street keeps piling on Buy ratings and one analyst sees nearly 90% upside ahead. The disconnect between the stock price and that conviction points to…
Vistra (NYSE:VST | VST Price Prediction) trades at $158.05. The average analyst price target is $210.25, which means 33% upside.
Vistra runs nuclear and natural gas plants across Texas and the PJM grid, and it has become one of Wall Street’s favorite ways to invest in AI electricity demand. It has signed 20-year PPAs with Meta for more than 2,600 MW at its PJM nuclear plants, plus up to 1,200 MW with AWS at Comanche Peak.
The most bullish call goes well beyond the consensus. Jefferies has the highest analyst target at $298.00, about 88.5% above the current price. A spread that wide shows analysts disagree sharply about what this AI power story is worth.
Cheap Texas Power Pulled Vistra Off Its Highs Flat Texas wholesale prices did the most damage. On the second-quarter call, the CEO, Jim Burke, said ERCOT prices averaged “$30 a megawatt hour” year to date, matching last year, and admitted “$30 is not going to get new stuff built.” The CFO, Chris Moldovan, said gains in PJM “don’t fully offset the ERCOT headwind” and that 2027 was “trending towards the lower end” of its range before pending deals.
Shares are down 19.19% over the past year and sit 26.8% below the 52-week high of $215.85. GAAP results added to the pressure. Second-quarter revenue fell 5.5% to $4.02B, and net income slipped to $305M from $327M after $472M in unrealized hedging losses. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA still rose more than 30% to $1.77B.
Nineteen of 20 Analysts Still Back the Nuclear and Gas Moat Analysts argue that hyperscalers need reliable 24/7 power, and Vistra’s nuclear and gas fleet can lock that supply into premium long-term contracts. Of 20 covering analysts, the split is:
Strong Buy: 4 Buy: 15 Hold: 0 Strong Sell: 1 Recent moves have been reiterations, including a Buy from Wells Fargo. The Meta PPAs begin contributing to Adjusted EBITDA in 2027, and the 5,500 MW Cogentrix gas portfolio has FERC approval. Moldovan said the two could add “roughly $700 million to our midpoint opportunity.”
Capital returns support the Jefferies case. Buybacks have reduced the share count by ~30% since Nov 2021, with ~$1.2B of authorization left. Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.80B to $7.60B. Vistra is also the preferred power provider for Helix Digital Infrastructure, its venture with NVIDIA, KKR, and Kuwait Investment Authority.
AI Power Stocks Fell Together, and NRG Has the Widest Consensus Gap Vistra fell alongside its peers. Investors have marked down the whole AI power group, even as the buildout behind it keeps growing (we covered seven companies providing that AI infrastructure, from power to cooling, in a free report you can download here).
Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) is down 22.85% over the past year at $293.89. Its $341.53 target means just 16.2% upside. 19 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy and 3 rate it Hold, so its upside is smaller than Vistra’s.
NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) has dropped 36.97% over the year to $106.37. Its second-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.49 missed the $1.7401 estimate. Its $185.50 target means 74.4% upside, with 13 Buy-side ratings and 3 Holds.
Talen Energy (NASDAQ:TLN) is down 12.86% over the year but up 32.55% in the past month to $379.77. Its $455.65 target means 20% upside, with 16 Buy-side ratings and 2 Holds.
NRG has the largest gap to its consensus target, while Vistra has the single most aggressive individual call. That puts Vistra in the middle of the group on consensus upside.
Vistra Trails the S&P 500 Despite a Sharp Rebound Vistra trades at $158.05 against a $210.25 consensus target from 20 analysts, means 33% upside. Treat targets as one data point. They are estimates and has no guarantee.
The stock is down 1.54% year to date, while the S&P 500 is up 14.1%. Over one year, Vistra is down 19.19% against a 17.35% gain for the index. Momentum has turned recently, with shares up 9.14% in a week. At a forward P/E of about 13, Vistra costs less than Constellation at 21.
Vistra Looks Mispriced if Texas Power Prices Firm Up The bull case improves if ERCOT prices move toward new-build economics and the Meta and Cogentrix contributions arrive on schedule in 2027. Downside risks grow if Texas prices stay near $30 a megawatt hour, 2027 EBITDA lands at the low end, and hyperscaler deals slow as grid operators restrict interconnection queues.
The data tilt bullish. Vistra is ~94% hedged for 2027, its core EBITDA is growing, and its valuation is below peers. Those factors make the consensus target reachable. The Jefferies $298.00 target needs everything to go right. Keep an eye on the next earnings report for any change to the 2027 outlook.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Key Takeaways Constellation's 3.59-GW deal with Google includes $4.3 billion in upgrades across 11 nuclear units.AI data centers fuel long-term power agreements, boosting growth visibility across the nuclear supply chain.ETFs like NLR offer exposure to nuclear utilities, uranium mining and advanced reactor technology. Alphabet’s (GOOGL - Free Report) Google and Constellation Energy (CEG - Free Report) signed a landmark power purchase agreement (PPA) last week that has put the entire nuclear industry squarely in the spotlight. Under the deal, Google will procure a total of 3.59 gigawatts (GW) of power, roughly a quarter of it from new nuclear capacity.
Specifically, Google signed a 20-year PPA for 890 megawatts (MW), which will be sourced from multiple CEG-owned nuclear power plants, alongside a separate long-term supply agreement of 15 years covering the remaining 2,700 MW. The transaction will drive more than $4.3 billion in new investment by Constellation to upgrade 11 nuclear units across Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Following the announcement, Constellation shares surged over 12%, while pure-play funds like VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR - Free Report) gained roughly 5.5% on the day of the announcement.
While the initial headline triggered an immediate rally, this partnership represents far more than a short-term market pop — it signals a fundamental, long-term repricing across the entire nuclear supply chain.
For investors, this structural shift highlights a compelling case to re-evaluate exposure to nuclear exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and capture these emerging long-term tailwinds.
Before identifying the top funds, let us dig deeper into the broader renaissance sweeping the energy sector — and examine how recurring mega-agreements between tech hyperscalers and nuclear operators are reshaping valuations across nuclear equities.
The Nuclear Renaissance Fueled by AIThe nuclear industry is undergoing a structural renaissance driven by artificial intelligence (AI). Over the past couple of years, as data center power demand has surged, technology giants have increasingly turned to nuclear power to secure 24/7 baseload electricity.
Behind these agreements lies the insatiable demand from AI data centers for round-the-clock, reliable power — the very force that has been driving unprecedented partnerships between hyperscalers and nuclear power suppliers lately.
This trend largely began in 2024, when Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) signed a 20-year agreement worth $16 billion with Constellation to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant.
In 2025, NextEra Energy (NEE - Free Report) and Google signed a 25-year carbon-free energy agreement to restart the dormant Duane Arnold Energy Center, a 615-MW nuclear facility, in Palo, IA. Once operational, electricity from this facility will power Google's growing cloud and AI infrastructure in Iowa.
Next, in early 2026, Meta signed 20-year power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Vistra Corp (VST - Free Report) for 2,600 MW of nuclear-powered electricity, in addition to a power agreement with Oklo Inc. (OKLO - Free Report) to anchor a planned 1.2-gigawatt GW advanced nuclear power campus in Pike County, OH.
In late September, Amazon signed a 20-year PPA with CEG to support the expansion of the Calvert Cliffs nuclear plant in Maryland. The deal includes 690 MW of power from Constellation's 1,790 MW Calvert Cliffs nuclear plant.
What these recurring mega-deals clearly demonstrate is a permanent shift in utility economics — long-term contracted revenues from tech hyperscalers are creating unprecedented growth visibility across the nuclear value chain.
ETFs: A Diversified Path to Nuclear DemandAs demand for clean, 24/7 power drives an aggressive expansion of carbon-free generation capacity, investors looking to participate in this structural multi-year rally can leverage specialized nuclear ETFs to build targeted portfolio exposure.
Against the current backdrop, a single company's risk may stem from regulatory delays, construction overruns, or operational disruptions. Nuclear ETFs hold dozens of companies across the supply chain, spanning uranium mining, fuel processing, reactor operations, equipment manufacturing, and next-generation reactor technology, helping hedge these idiosyncratic risks while capturing the long-term trend of AI-driven power demand.
Nuclear ETFs in SpotlightConsidering the aforementioned discussion, the following Nuclear ETFs are currently worth an investor’s spotlight:
VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR - Free Report)
This fund, with net assets worth $3.52 billion, offers exposure to 28 companies involved in uranium mining; the construction, engineering, and maintenance of nuclear power facilities and nuclear reactors; the production of electricity from nuclear sources; or providing equipment, technology, and/or services to the nuclear power industry.
CEG holds the first spot in this fund with a 9.20% weight, while OKLO holds the eighth spot with a 4.81% weight. NLR charges 52 basis points (bps) in fees.
Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ - Free Report)
This fund, with net assets worth $678 million, offers exposure to 52 companies that are involved in advanced reactor, utilities, construction & services, and fuel. VST holds the fourth spot in this fund with a 3.23% weight, while OKLO holds the fifth spot with a 3.16% weight.
CEG holds the sixth position in this fund, with 3.03% weight. NUKZ charges 85 bps in fees.
First Trust Bloomberg Nuclear Power ETF (RCTR - Free Report)
The fund, with net assets of $29.3 million, holds 45 companies involved in the nuclear energy industry. These include regulated utilities and merchant-power producers that operate nuclear-generation assets, uranium miners and enrichers, and companies providing engineering, construction, reactor manufacturing, nuclear waste management, and other equipment or services for nuclear power generation.
CEG holds the second spot in this fund with a 5.79% weight, while VST holds the third spot with a 4.96% weight. RCTR charges 70 bps in fees.
What happened Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) said Kristopher E. Moldovan, its EVP and CFO, sold 20,000 shares of common stock on 2026-10-07.
The shares were sold at $165.00 each for about $3.30 million in total.
The form checked the box for a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. After the sale, the filing lists 179,044 shares.
The table identifies Moldovan as the reporting person and an officer of the issuer.
Key numbers Metric Latest Change Source Shares sold 20,000 shares SEC Form 4 Sale price $165.00 SEC Form 4 Reported value about $3.30 million SEC Form 4 Shares held after sale 179,044 shares SEC Form 4 Pre-trade holding sold about 10.0% Calculated from SEC Form 4 Read more: Vistra (VST) stock analysis and investment case
Why it matters OptimistFi's case is that Vistra is a scarcity-power story, built on large dispatchable electricity supply and a retail channel, and the stock works only if that scarcity lasts.
This filing is mixed for that view because the CFO sold shares, trimming exposure to the name.
The 20,000-share sale was about 10.0% of the 199,044-share holding before the trade, so the move was not trivial.
The Rule 10b5-1 box is the main caveat, because it points to a prearranged plan rather than a fresh discretionary decision.
That makes the form a useful record of insider ownership change, but it does not by itself say anything about power supply or retail demand.
For investors, the takeaway is narrower than a thesis change: Moldovan reduced the stake, and the filing shows the reduction was planned.
The filing supplies price and size, which lets investors gauge the transaction against the pre-trade holding.
Browse: stock research on every company OptimistFi covers
What's next The next quarterly report is the next scheduled read on whether the scarcity-power case still holds.
If that report keeps supporting the business, this planned sale stays a background item.
If the report weakens the case, the sale will look more relevant in hindsight.
Until then, the form mainly gives investors a dated snapshot of insider activity under a trading plan.
The trade date was 2026-10-07, and the filing was signed the same day.
That gives investors a clean date stamp for the transaction even though the rule 10b5-1 box limits the signal.
More from OptimistFi VST stock: the Vistra thesis, its status and the next test to watch Dividendology Explains Hess Midstream LP (NYSE: HESM)'s EBITDA Reset Viatris Inc. (NASDAQ: VTRS) Buys Pacira for $1.65 Billion Richardson Electronics, Ltd. (NASDAQ: RELL) Margin Gains Need Context Stock research on every company OptimistFi covers Latest stock research and investment-case updates OptimistFi: evidence-first equity research Sources SEC Form 4 — Vistra Corp. insider trade by Kristopher E. Moldovan. Read the full OptimistFi thesis on Vistra Corp.: https://optimistfi.com/stocks/VST
See what would break the Vistra Corp. thesis and track it live on the OptimistFi Thesis-Break Engine.
Browse every company OptimistFi covers at optimistfi.com/stocks, or read the latest evidence-first research.
The full Vistra Corp. investment case, its status and the next test to watch live on the Vistra Corp. thesis page.
Originally published on OptimistFi, evidence-first equity research. More at optimistfi.com.
In the latest close session, Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) was down 6.35% at $156.14. The stock's performance was behind the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.47%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.1%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 1.25%.
Coming into today, shares of the company had gained 10.34% in the past month. In that same time, the Utilities sector lost 4.06%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.15%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Vistra Corp. in its upcoming release. The company plans to announce its earnings on November 6, 2026. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $2.89, signifying a 65.14% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $7.76 billion, indicating a 56.19% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $9.04 per share and revenue of $22.59 billion, which would represent changes of +71.86% and +27.35%, respectively, from the prior year.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Vistra Corp. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 1.88% lower. As of now, Vistra Corp. holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell).
In the context of valuation, Vistra Corp. is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 18.44. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 16.96.
The Utility - Electric Power industry is part of the Utilities sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 103, placing it within the top 42% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.
As of Oct. 8, 2026, three stocks in the utilities sector could be flashing a real warning to investors who value momentum as a key criteria in their trading decisions.
The RSI is a momentum indicator, which compares a stock’s strength on days when prices go up to its strength on days when prices go down. When compared to a stock’s price action, it can give traders a better sense of how a stock may perform in the short term. An asset is typically considered overbought when the RSI is above 70, according to Benzinga Pro.
Here’s the latest list of major overbought players in this sector.
Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) On Oct. 5, BMO Capital analyst James Thalacker maintained Vistra with an Outperform rating and lowered the price target from $231 to $210. The company’s stock gained around 20% over the past five days and has a 52-week high of $217.10. RSI Value: 70.6 VST Price Action: Shares of Vistra gained 3.9% to close at $166.72 on Wednesday. Edge Stock Ratings: 41.63 Momentum score with Value at 24.74. Talen Energy Corp (NASDAQ:TLN) On Sept. 29, Talen Energy named President Terry Nutt as CEO, effective Jan. 1, 2027, succeeding Mac McFarland. The company’s board approved upsized $3 billion buyback plan through 2028. The company’s stock gained around 21% over the past five days and has a 52-week high of $449.84. RSI Value: 72.6 TLN Price Action: Shares of Talen Energy rose 1.4% to close at $378.32 on Wednesday. NorthWestern Energy Group Inc (NASDAQ:NWE) On Oct. 6, Barclays analyst Nicholas Campanella maintained NorthWestern Energy Group with an Overweight rating and cut the price target from $73 to $70.. The company’s stock gained around 9% over the past five days and has a 52-week high of $76.00. RSI Value: 77.5 NWE Price Action: Shares of NorthWestern Energy rose 7.3% to close at $73.97 on Wednesday. Learn more about BZ Edge Rankings—click to see scores for other stocks in the sector and see how they compare.
Photo via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Venture Visionary Partners LLC decreased its position in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) by 54.6% during the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund owned 12,938 shares of the company’s stock after selling 15,558 shares during the quarter. Venture Visionary Partners LLC’s holdings in Vistra were worth $1,790,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.
A number of other large investors also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Premier Financial Group bought a new stake in Vistra in the 2nd quarter valued at $34,000. Brown Lisle Cummings Inc. grew its holdings in Vistra by 141.2% in the 1st quarter. Brown Lisle Cummings Inc. now owns 246 shares of the company’s stock valued at $37,000 after buying an additional 144 shares in the last quarter. Stonehage Fleming Financial Services Holdings Ltd bought a new position in Vistra during the 2nd quarter worth $37,000. Silicon Valley Capital Partners bought a new position in Vistra during the 2nd quarter worth $39,000. Finally, Physician Wealth Advisors Inc. boosted its position in shares of Vistra by 46.6% in the first quarter. Physician Wealth Advisors Inc. now owns 302 shares of the company’s stock valued at $45,000 after acquiring an additional 96 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 90.88% of the company’s stock.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades VST has been the subject of several analyst reports. Weiss Ratings cut Vistra from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “hold (c)” rating in a report on Thursday, August 13th. Sanford C. Bernstein restated an “outperform” rating and issued a $181.00 price target on shares of Vistra in a research report on Thursday, October 1st. Wells Fargo & Company reiterated an “overweight” rating and set a $212.00 price objective on shares of Vistra in a research note on Monday, August 10th. BNP Paribas Exane set a $255.00 price target on shares of Vistra in a report on Wednesday, August 19th. Finally, Mizuho assumed coverage on shares of Vistra in a research report on Monday, August 24th. They set an “outperform” rating and a $169.00 price target on the stock. Fifteen investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $217.61.
Get Our Latest Analysis on VST Vistra Stock Up 3.9% Shares of VST opened at $166.77 on Thursday. The stock has a market capitalization of $55.97 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.17 and a beta of 1.38. Vistra Corp. has a 52 week low of $132.66 and a 52 week high of $217.10. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a quick ratio of 0.87 and a current ratio of 0.97. The stock has a fifty day moving average of $143.51 and a 200-day moving average of $151.04.
Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 EPS for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $1.61 by ($0.85). Vistra had a net margin of 11.55% and a return on equity of 108.68%. The firm had revenue of $4.02 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.46 billion. As a group, sell-side analysts anticipate that Vistra Corp. will post 9.04 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Investors of record on Monday, September 21st were issued a $0.23 dividend. This is a boost from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.2290. The ex-dividend date was Monday, September 21st. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 0.6%. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is 15.54%.
Insider Buying and Selling In other Vistra news, CEO James Burke purchased 4,465 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 1st. The stock was purchased at an average cost of $135.25 per share, for a total transaction of $603,891.25. Following the transaction, the chief executive officer owned 1,146,352 shares in the company, valued at $155,044,108. The trade was a 0.39% increase in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. Also, EVP Scott A. Hudson sold 44,444 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 8th. The shares were sold at an average price of $151.82, for a total transaction of $6,747,488.08. Following the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 331,137 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $50,273,219.34. The trade was a 11.83% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. 0.92% of the stock is owned by company insiders.
More Vistra News Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:
Positive Sentiment: The U.S. Department of Energy announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to help Vistra expand capacity and extend the operating lives of nuclear plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio. The funding could reduce project-financing needs, support additional generation and improve the long-term value of Vistra’s nuclear fleet. DoE confirms up to $4.2B loan to Vistra Positive Sentiment: The announcement reinforced the market’s view that reliable, around-the-clock nuclear electricity will become increasingly valuable as AI data centers expand. Vistra’s long-term power agreements with large customers, including Meta and New Era Energy, provide additional visibility into future demand and revenue. Vistra Stock Gains as Federal Funds Fuel Nuclear Power Expansion Positive Sentiment: Vistra rallied alongside Constellation Energy and Talen Energy after a separate announcement involving a long-term Google commitment to nuclear power. Investors interpreted the deal as evidence that hyperscalers may sign multiyear contracts for firm nuclear generation, potentially supporting higher power prices and cash flows across the sector. Constellation Energy, Vistra and Talen move on AI nuclear deals Neutral Sentiment: Analysts and investors continue comparing Vistra with Talen as potential AI-power beneficiaries. The key issue is how much of the opportunity becomes shareholder cash flow after capital spending, financing costs and debt service. Vistra vs. Talen: Which AI Power Stock Has the Stronger Cash-Flow Case? Negative Sentiment: Vistra is challenging a PJM market proposal at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, arguing it is discriminatory and legally flawed. Although the filing seeks to protect future investment incentives, regulatory uncertainty could affect market revenues and investment planning in the region. Vistra’s high leverage remains an additional risk for investors. About Vistra (Free Report)
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) is an integrated energy company headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company operates electricity generation facilities and provides electricity and related energy services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Its portfolio includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage assets.
Vistra also operates a retail electricity business that offers power plans, renewable energy options, and energy-management services. Its retail brands include TXU Energy, Homefield Energy, Dynegy, and Ambit Energy, serving customers in competitive electricity markets across the United States.
See Also Five stocks we like better than Vistra Skydance Just Became a Media Giant—With an $80 Billion Debt Load Could Velo3D Be the Next Defense Buyout Target? Penguin Solutions Is Soaring as AI Memory Demand Explodes Alphabet’s Chart Is Coiling—and the Fundamentals May Be Ready to Back It Up
Receive News & Ratings for Vistra Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Vistra and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
Washington's latest nuclear deal adds new power without building a single new reactor. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made the pitch on Monday: run the existing nuclear plants in America longer to deliver cheaper, steadier power around the clock.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced a loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion for Vistra (VST +10.77%) to extend and upgrade three of its nuclear plants -- Beaver Valley in Pennsylvania, and Davis-Besse and Perry in Ohio.
The DOE says the project will preserve nearly 4 gigawatts (GW) of existing power and add 433 megawatts (MW) of new capacity. That could power more than 3 million homes across Pennsylvania, Ohio, and the PJM region. The PJM region is the stretch of the eastern U.S. where PJM Interconnection runs the power grid, covering all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia.
Here's the big number: The investment will extend the plants' lives for another 20 years beyond their current licenses.
Zoom out, and Monday's deal is just a piece of a much bigger plan that should benefit more stocks than one.
Image source: Getty Images.
Trump's big nuclear betPresident Donald Trump's May 2025 executive order set an ambitious goal to jump-start America's nuclear energy industry and quadruple capacity to 400 GW by 2050.
Washington can add nuclear power mainly in three ways: new reactors, restarts, and uprates (increasing the capacity and output of existing plants). It is going after all three.
Here are some examples of the DOE's major recent nuclear deals.
New reactorsA conditional $17.5 billion loan to Westinghouse to deploy up to 10 new AP1000 reactors. Westinghouse is jointly owned by Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEPC +4.70%)(BEP +4.25%) and Cameco (CCJ +6.34%).
RestartsThe DOE closed a $1 billion loan to Constellation Energy (CEG +12.25%) to bring back the 835-megawatt Crane Clean Energy Center, the old Three Mile Island Unit 1, which shut in 2019. Tech giant Microsoft (MSFT +0.78%) had already signed to buy the power even before the DOE loan.
UpratesVistra's latest $4.2 billion loan commitment for three of its plants. Here's something else you must know: In January 2026, tech behemoth Meta Platforms (META -0.41%) already signed 20-year power purchase agreements with Vistra to buy 2,609 MW from those same plants.
What this means for investors in nuclear energy I see two emerging patterns.
First, the biggest federal loans or commitments are going to existing plants, because that solves the energy problem faster than building a new reactor.
Second, plants that already have a license, a grid connection, and a buyer are getting Washington's attention. While Constellation had already found a buyer for Crane output in Microsoft, Vistra found one in Meta.
All Washington is doing is adding money on top, so the companies that own these plants can restart or uprate more quickly and more affordably.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
75/100
Today's Change
(
10.77
%) $
15.61
Current Price
$
160.50
The nuclear renaissance is real, and I strongly believe that owners of existing reactors, such as Constellation and Vistra, stand to win the most.
While Constellation operates the largest nuclear fleet in the U.S., Vistra owns the second-largest fleet among competitive power producers that sell electricity on the open market. Both hold scarce assets that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom needs but can't quickly replace: reactors that deliver clear, uninterrupted nuclear power around the clock.
Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Cameco, Constellation Energy, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Vistra. The Motley Fool recommends Brookfield Renewable and Brookfield Renewable Partners. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Over the past month, shares of this company have returned -3%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.8% change. During this period, the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, which Vistra falls in, has lost 6.3%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Vistra is expected to post earnings of $2.89 per share, indicating a change of +65.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +3.3% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $9.04 points to a change of +71.9% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -1.9%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $10.54 indicates a change of +16.6% from what Vistra is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.4%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Vistra.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of Vistra, the consensus sales estimate of $7.76 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +56.2%. The $22.59 billion and $25.77 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +27.4% and +14.1%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryVistra reported revenues of $4.02 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -5.5%. EPS of $1.8 for the same period compares with $1.01 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.29 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -36.17%. The EPS surprise was +16.88%.
Over the last four quarters, Vistra surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Vistra is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Vistra. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.
Nuclear power stock Vistra Corp (VST +11.23%) jumped 9.1% through 10:10 a.m. ET Tuesday after the U.S. Department of Energy announced it will loan the company $4.2 billion to finance nuclear plant upgrades "across Vistra's nuclear fleet in Pennsylvania and Ohio."
Image source: Getty Images.
What's in the loan?President Trump has announced an "American nuclear renaissance" in two parts: first, by facilitating the construction of new nuclear plants, including small modular reactors (SMRS), and second, by restarting, extending service life, or expanding energy production at existing nuclear installations. The Vistra contract is of the second part.
DOE explains that the $4.2 billion Vistra loan "will preserve nearly 4 gigawatts (GW) of reliable baseload power" and then expand production more than 10%, adding 433 megawatts (MW) of new nuclear capacity. Upgrades and modernization work will add 20 years to the expected service life of Vistra's existing nuclear fleet.
DOE notes that part of the funds may also be used to expand energy production at Vistra's Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant in Texas.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
75/100
Today's Change
(
11.23
%) $
16.27
Current Price
$
161.16
What it means for Vistra investorsThe loan comes with strings attached. Vistra must "satisfy certain technical, legal, environmental, and financial conditions before the Department enters into definitive financing documents and funds the loan" -- which conditions are not described in the announcement.
So it's possible the loan won't actually come to pass.
Assuming it does, though, Vistra would presumably gain access to the funds at attractive rates. The loan is still a loan, though, and will grow Vistra's debt load by about 20%, to $24.7 billion, while expanding its energy production capacity by only 10%. That's probably only a great deal for Vistra if energy prices keep rising.
The good news: Analysts think they will, and expect Vistra to grow earnings 27% annually over the next five years.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vistra. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
VST places No. 58 overall with 497% three-year revenue growth; portfolio spans U.S. healthcare infrastructure, peptide drug delivery and pet health
, /PRNewswire/ -- Victory Square Technologies Inc. ("Victory Square", "VST" or the "Company") (CSE: VST) (OTCQX: VSQTF) (FWB: 6F6), a publicly traded venture builder, is pleased to announce that it has ranked No. 58 overall on The Globe and Mail's 2026 Report on Business ranking of Canada's Top Growing Companies, achieving 497% revenue growth from 2022 to 2025.
Victory Square also holds the second-highest position among the 24 publicly traded companies included in the ranking, based on the Company's review of the published list filtered by publicly traded status.
The 497% increase represents nearly a sixfold expansion in revenue over the measurement period. The recognition comes as Victory Square continues to scale its consolidated operations while developing businesses across healthcare infrastructure, biotechnology and pet health.
"Behind this recognition are years of building, teams that kept executing and shareholders who supported us along the way," said Shafin Diamond Tejani, CEO of Victory Square Technologies. "Placing second among the publicly traded companies on this list is a proud moment for everyone involved. It reflects meaningful progress in turning the businesses we help build into operations with real commercial scale."
Continued growth beyond the ranking period
The ranking measures revenue growth through 2025. Victory Square's previously announced results show continued expansion in the first half of 2026:
Consolidated revenue of $53.0 million, compared with $9.9 million in the first half of 2025, an increase of approximately 434%. Consolidated gross profit of $10.5 million, compared with $3.4 million in the corresponding period. Consolidated cash of $20.2 million and working capital of $34.5 million as at June 30, 2026. First-half consolidated revenue growth was primarily attributable to Hydreight Technologies Inc., Victory Square's largest operating subsidiary.
All financial amounts are in Canadian dollars. Readers should review the Company's financial statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis on SEDAR+ for additional information.
What investors gain exposure to through VST
Victory Square provides public-market investors with exposure to operating and development-stage technology businesses through a single publicly traded company. Its approach combines investment capital with operational support, strategic guidance and industry relationships to help businesses develop and scale.
Current areas of focus include:
Hydreight Technologies — U.S. healthcare infrastructure
Hydreight (TSXV: NURS) operates a digital health infrastructure platform supporting healthcare providers, businesses and direct-to-consumer healthcare brands across all 50 U.S. states. Its platform brings together technology, physician coverage, pharmacy relationships and compliance infrastructure. Hydreight is the principal driver of Victory Square's consolidated revenue.
Insu Therapeutics — Peptide drug delivery
Insu is developing technology designed to deliver peptide-based medicines through the inner cheek, known as buccal delivery. Its research includes evaluating the delivery of existing therapies such as semaglutide through an alternative route of administration. Insu remains a development-stage biotechnology business; clinical validation and applicable regulatory approvals are required before commercialization.
Pawsible Ventures — Building pet-health businesses
Pawsible is a pet-health venture platform supporting founders across veterinary technology and animal wellness. In April 2026, it announced its inaugural cohort of eight companies, selected from several hundred applicants globally. The cohort spans veterinary infrastructure, diagnostics, AI-enabled care, preventative health and consumer wellness, giving Pawsible a concrete starting point for applying Victory Square's venture-building approach to companion-animal health.
These businesses represent different stages of development. Hydreight provides established commercial operations, while Insu and Pawsible offer exposure to earlier-stage opportunities with distinct development and execution risks.
"Our model gives investors a way to participate in businesses they might otherwise encounter only through private markets," added Tejani. "We work alongside founders and management teams to help those businesses move forward. Our priorities are to support execution, allocate capital carefully and translate portfolio progress into long-term value for VST shareholders."
Meet the portfolio: October 8 investor webinar
Victory Square invites existing shareholders and prospective investors to its Corporate and Portfolio Update on Thursday, October 8, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time.
The webinar will include a closer look at Hydreight, Insu Therapeutics and Pawsible Ventures, alongside other public and private holdings. Management will discuss net asset value, capital allocation and how progress across the portfolio can translate into value for VST shareholders.
Canada's Top Growing Companies is an editorial ranking published by The Globe and Mail's Report on Business magazine. Launched in 2019, the voluntary program ranks qualifying Canadian businesses based on three-year revenue growth following an application and review process.
The 2026 ranking is available in the October issue of Report on Business magazine and online at The Globe and Mail.
About Victory Square Technologies Inc.
Victory Square builds, acquires and invests in technology companies, providing capital, strategic leadership and operational support to help them develop and scale. Its portfolio includes operating and development-stage businesses across healthcare infrastructure, digital health, artificial intelligence, pet health and other emerging technology sectors.
Headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, Victory Square trades on the Canadian Securities Exchange, the OTCQX market and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
For more information, visit www.victorysquare.com.
Forward-Looking Information
This news release contains forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including statements concerning Victory Square's business strategy, portfolio development, capital allocation, potential shareholder value, Insu Therapeutics' drug-delivery technology and potential commercialization, Pawsible Ventures' development opportunities, and the timing and content of the planned investor webinar.
Such information is based on management's current expectations and assumptions, including the availability of capital, demand for portfolio companies' products and services, successful research and development, receipt of applicable regulatory approvals and the ability to execute business plans. Actual results may differ materially due to risks including market and economic conditions, financing requirements, competition, regulatory changes, clinical and technological uncertainty, and operational execution. Additional risks are described in the Company's public filings on SEDAR+.
Historical revenue growth and inclusion in an editorial ranking do not guarantee future operating results or investment returns. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. The Company undertakes no obligation to update such information except as required by applicable law.
Data center power requirements are pushing the U.S. electrical grid to its limits. Private infrastructure struggles to keep pace with the energy demands of artificial intelligence (AI) development, prompting the federal government to step in and underwrite utility-scale power generation. This intervention turns select nuclear sector operators into defended backdoor technology infrastructure plays.
At the center of this shift is Vistra Corp NYSE: VST. The independent power producer anticipates an injection of approximately $4.2 billion from the Department of Energy. By moving the upfront capital cost of capacity uprates to the federal balance sheet, the government removes the primary financial risk of nuclear expansion. This narrative helps Vistra evolve from a highly leveraged utility into a federally subsidized AI infrastructure provider.
Get Vistra alerts:
Shifting Nuclear Costs to the Federal Balance SheetNuclear energy presents a distinct economic challenge for utility operators. The marginal cost of producing electricity from an active nuclear plant is incredibly low, but the upfront capital expenditures required to build or upgrade those facilities often deter private investment. These high upfront costs have historically suppressed utility valuations and kept new capacity offline.
Vistra Today
$158.51 +13.62 (+9.40%)
As of 09:52 AM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
$132.66▼
$217.100.58%
26.67
$217.61
The anticipated federal financing package changes this equation. The funds target capacity uprates for three specific plants: Perry and Davis-Besse in Ohio, and Beaver Valley in Pennsylvania. Sidestepping the decades-long regulatory approval process required to build new reactors, Vistra plans to add about 433 megawatts of capacity to its existing infrastructure.
This approach drastically accelerates the deployment timeline. Using federal funds to finance the upgrades means Vistra secures the future cash flow of the new capacity without risking its own capital on the difficult construction phase. The federal government subsidizes the AI power bottleneck, positioning Vistra shareholders to collect the resulting yield.
Unlike intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar, nuclear provides the continuous baseload power data centers need to run large language models around the clock. The government recognizes that maintaining domestic leadership in technology requires grid expansion, and utility operators own the physical assets required to make that happen.
Securing Baseload Power With Bypassed QueuesBuilding capacity is only half the operational equation. The other half involves securing buyers. In the current market, hyperscalers are claiming nuclear output before infrastructure upgrades are complete.
Vistra holds pre-existing, 20-year power purchase agreements with Meta Platforms NASDAQ: META for this upcoming capacity.
This arrangement provides long-term revenue visibility and locks in demand from a counterparty with a pristine balance sheet. When an independent power producer secures a 20-year agreement with a major technology enterprise, the producer begins to look less like a commodity business and more like a high-margin infrastructure asset.
Vistra's pricing power extends beyond traditional partnerships. The company's Luminant division recently signed a 20-year, 207-megawatt power deal with New Era Energy & Digital NASDAQ: NUAI to supply a Texas data center. This specific agreement bypasses the Electric Reliability Council of Texas interconnection queue entirely.
Data center operators are willing to pay premiums and bypass standard grid queues to guarantee access to baseload power. This dynamic establishes a direct pipeline between independent generation and AI infrastructure. By signing direct agreements with data centers, independent power producers insulate themselves from broader fluctuations in wholesale electricity prices, helping stabilize their earnings models.
Hedging High Leverage While Short Sellers RetreatAny objective analysis of Vistra must address its debt load. The utility operates with a debt-to-equity ratio near 5.87, pushing its financial health metrics into higher-risk categories on standard credit tracking platforms.
Operations have underperformed recently, with Vistra missing consensus earnings per share estimates by reporting 76 cents against expectations of about $1.61. Revenue also came in light at approximately $4.02 billion versus the anticipated $5.46 billion.
Management is actively deploying capital to mitigate these balance sheet concerns. Vistra extended the maturity of its revolving credit facility to September 2027, ensuring liquidity flexibility over the next few years.
The board of directors also authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program, providing an underlying bid that can retire up to 2.1% of outstanding shares. With a recently increased quarterly dividend of 23 cents, Vistra adds a tangible yield component to hedge against its ongoing leverage risks.
Investors appear to be looking past the recent earnings miss. Short interest fell nearly 10% in the most recent reporting period, to just under 3% of the float. Bearish pressure is evaporating as the federal catalyst is priced in. At the same time, options activity points to institutional accumulation. In early October, traders executed over 52,000 call options on Vistra, a 52% increase above the daily average volume.
Rethinking the Traditional Utility Valuation ModelInvestors analyzing independent power producers face a shifting landscape. The historical utility model, characterized by slow growth and heavy regulation, is facing disruption by the energy density required to train and run AI systems. The technology sector absorbs output as fast as it can be generated, and the federal government is providing the capital to ensure generation happens.
Vistra currently trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of about 25 and a forward price-to-earnings ratio near 16. This compression of the forward multiple compared to the trailing multiple implies that analysts expect earnings to expand as these new contracts come online.
Vistra carries undeniable debt risks and faces the standard operational hurdles of running complex nuclear facilities. Yet, the anticipated capital expenditure subsidy and 20-year offtake agreements provide a level of financial security rarely seen in the traditional utility space.
Those watching the infrastructure sector might consider evaluating how federal intervention alters the risk profile of independent power producers. Investors seeking exposure to the AI supply chain beyond traditional semiconductor and software names may find value in adding utility operators with nuclear exposure to their watchlists as the energy bottleneck tightens.
Should You Invest $1,000 in Vistra Right Now?Before you consider Vistra, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Vistra wasn't on the list.
While Vistra currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.
View The Five Stocks Here
Looking to profit from the electric vehicle mega-trend? Click the link to see our list of which EV stocks show the most long-term potential.
Get This Free Report
Continue following MarketBeat
Add MarketBeat as your preferred source on Google to see our latest stories in your feed.
What happened Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) said Vistra Operations Company LLC, an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary, amended its commodity-linked credit agreement on September 30, 2026. The agreement was originally dated February 4, 2022. The amendment took effect on September 30, 2026.
It extends the revolving credit maturity date from September 30, 2026 to September 29, 2027. It also makes other changes that align the deal with the borrower's corporate credit agreement.
The amended schedule totals $1.75 billion in revolving credit commitments. Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank has a $100 million commitment. Morgan Stanley Bank, N.A. has $68 million, and Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc. has $32 million. The agreement restates the total as the sum of the lender commitments in the schedule. It also calls for an upfront fee equal to 0.05% of each revolver lender's commitment. Key numbers Metric Latest Change Source Revolving credit maturity date September 29, 2027 from September 30, 2026, +364 days SEC 8-K Aggregate revolving credit commitments $1.75 billion Ex-10.1 Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank commitment $100 million Ex-10.1 Upfront fee 0.05% Ex-10.1 Read more: Vistra (VST) stock analysis and investment case
Why it matters OptimistFi's case is that Vistra's value depends on durable scarcity power and access to financing. This amendment supports the financing side of that view by pushing the maturity out by 364 days while leaving the commitment pool at $1.75 billion.
The change does not add new borrowing capacity. It keeps the existing line in place for longer. That makes the filing about flexibility, not the operating story.
The upfront fee adds a small cost to preserve the line. The bigger caution is the one the filing states. The amendment works only if its conditions are met, including no Default or Event of Default. The clearest change for investors is the move in maturity date by one year.
Browse: stock research on every company OptimistFi covers
What's next The next dated checkpoint is September 29, 2027, when the revolver now matures. Another extension before then would support the financing case. Reaching that date without a new arrangement would weaken it.
That date is now the main checkpoint for the company's credit access. Investors can compare the amended schedule and maturity date with any later amendment or repayment.
More from OptimistFi VST stock: the Vistra thesis, its status and the next test to watch United States Brent Oil Fund, LP (NYSE Arca: BNO) Tracks a Supply Gap Alpha Teknova, Inc. (NASDAQ: TKNO) Adds Regulatory Support for PluriFreeze Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) Has a Conditional $18 Billion Bill Stock research on every company OptimistFi covers Latest stock research and investment-case updates OptimistFi: evidence-first equity research Sources SEC 8-K — Current report announcing the amendment and the maturity extension. Exhibit 10.1 — Eleventh Amendment to Credit Agreement with the revised commitment schedule and fee. Read the full OptimistFi thesis on Vistra Corp.: https://optimistfi.com/stocks/VST
See what would break the Vistra Corp. thesis and track it live on the OptimistFi Thesis-Break Engine.
Browse every company OptimistFi covers at optimistfi.com/stocks, or read the latest evidence-first research.
The full Vistra Corp. investment case, its status and the next test to watch live on the Vistra Corp. thesis page.
Originally published on OptimistFi, evidence-first equity research. More at optimistfi.com.
Buy Vistra (VST). DOE plans up to $4.2B in low-cost federal loans for reactor upgrades at Perry, Davis-Besse, and Beaver Valley. That cuts capital costs, de-risks modernization, and strengthens long-term earnings visibility—exactly what the market wants for 24/7 nuclear-backed power. VST also already has big multi-year PPAs with Amazon and Meta, so the capacity upgrades should translate into steadier cash flows. Key risk: DOE loan terms get delayed, reduced, or come with conditions that materially raise Vistra’s effective cost of capital or slow project timelines.
Key Risk: DOE loan terms get delayed/reduced or add costly conditions that raise Vistra’s effective capital cost or delay upgrades.
Buy nuclear-adjacent utilities
Buy NextEra Energy (NEE). Second-order effect: if federal nuclear financing lowers the hurdle rate for nuclear upgrades, the whole “baseload clean power” bid rises—utilities with nuclear exposure and grid-scale clean generation become preferred partners for data-center power contracts. NEE benefits from broader investor rotation into nuclear/clean baseload as AI demand keeps pushing for firm power. Key risk: AI/data-center power demand softens or contract pricing compresses, reducing the value of firm-power capacity even with cheaper financing.
Key Risk: Firm-power contract demand/pricing weakens, so cheaper financing doesn’t translate into higher earnings.
Vistra VST shares are pushing higher on October 5th as investors react to fresh reports detailing potential federal financial support for nuclear energy expansion.
Markets are cheering VST primarily because federal backing could boost its clean energy pipeline and offset capital expenses for reactor modernizations.
Despite today’s gains, Vistra stock remains down over 10% versus the start of this year.
VST shares are in the green this morning mostly because reports indicate that the US Department of Energy (DOE) plans on offering the company up to $4.2 billion in federal loans.
The loan is intended to fund key capacity and tech upgrades across three of Vistra’s nuclear power facilities:
Perry nuclear power plant (Ohio)Davis-Besse nuclear power station (Ohio)Beaver Valley power station (Pennsylvania)US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is scheduled to visit VST’s Perry facility to formally announce the loan structure, which aligns with executive policy plans aimed at expanding domestic baseload nuclear capacity.
For Vistra Corp – which operates one of the nation’s largest nuclear fleets alongside gas and solar operations – federal credit guarantees notably lower capital costs and de-risk major infrastructure buildouts.
Investors view federal low-cost debt as a game-changer for utility balance sheets, allowing firms to expand capacity without diluting equity or incurring exorbitant high-yield corporate borrowing rates.
All in all, this regulatory tailwind reinforces long-term earnings visibility and strengthens VST’s structural advantage in delivering uninterrupted, zero-carbon power.
Beyond federal momentum, high-profile backing from influential figures – including institutional vehicles linked to Peter Thiel and prominent disclosure filings from lawmakers like Nancy Pelosi – have kept Vistra firmly in the spotlight.
Capital flows from both Silicon Valley luminaries and Capitol Hill investors reflect a shared thesis: the expansion of AI compute clusters and hyperscale data centers requires an immediate, massive influx of reliable energy.
Because AI workloads require continuous 24/7 power that intermittent renewables alone can’t supply, clean nuclear and flexible natural gas assets have become prime real estate.
Vistra shares sit right at this intersection, capturing premium long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with major tech firms desperate to secure energy capacity.
Note that VST has already signed massive, multi-year deals with the likes of Amazon and Meta.
Potential investors should also note that Wall Street firms believe Vistra is still in its early innings only.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the consensus rating on VST stock sits at “Buy” currently – with the mean price target of about $213 indicating potential upside of roughly 50% from here.
Vistra is trading at about 15x forward earnings, which doesn’t really make it an expensive pick for an AI beneficiary.
Vistra is rated 'Buy' following the $4B DOE nuclear loan, supporting bullish catalysts and earnings visibility. VST's FY2027 adjusted EBITDA is projected at $8.1–8.5B, factoring in Cogentrix and Meta PPAs, with >$3B in dividends and ~$1B buybacks planned for 2026-27. Current valuation suggests ~31% upside to a $190.62/share fair value, with further catalysts possible from asset expansions and high-margin contracted revenue.
Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?
Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) .
Vistra currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.11, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 18 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.11 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 18 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 17 are Strong Buy, representing 94.4% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for VST
Check price target & stock forecast for Vistra here>>>
The ABR suggests buying Vistra, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.
Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision.
ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks RankIn spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.
Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.
On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.
There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.
Should You Invest in VST?Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for Vistra, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has declined 1.9% over the past month to $9.04.
Analysts' growing pessimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates lower, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to plunge in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Vistra. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, it could be wise to take the Buy-equivalent ABR for Vistra with a grain of salt.
CX Institutional trimmed its holdings in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) by 93.5% during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The firm owned 3,011 shares of the company’s stock after selling 43,170 shares during the quarter. CX Institutional’s holdings in Vistra were worth $417,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
A number of other large investors have also recently made changes to their positions in the stock. BlackRock Inc. bought a new position in Vistra during the 2nd quarter worth about $4,610,496,000. Envestnet Asset Management Inc. boosted its position in Vistra by 16.1% during the second quarter. Envestnet Asset Management Inc. now owns 258,337 shares of the company’s stock valued at $40,979,000 after purchasing an additional 35,862 shares in the last quarter. Fifth Third Bancorp boosted its position in Vistra by 95.1% during the first quarter. Fifth Third Bancorp now owns 177,199 shares of the company’s stock valued at $26,638,000 after purchasing an additional 86,393 shares in the last quarter. Wealth High Governance Capital Ltda purchased a new position in Vistra in the first quarter valued at about $10,543,000. Finally, Lazard Asset Management LLC grew its stake in Vistra by 353.5% in the first quarter. Lazard Asset Management LLC now owns 11,690 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,757,000 after purchasing an additional 9,112 shares during the last quarter. 90.88% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth VST has been the subject of several analyst reports. Weiss Ratings lowered shares of Vistra from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “hold (c)” rating in a research report on Thursday, August 13th. Zacks Research downgraded Vistra from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Tuesday, August 18th. Siebert Williams Shank assumed coverage on Vistra in a report on Friday. They set a “buy” rating and a $202.00 price objective for the company. Mizuho started coverage on Vistra in a research report on Monday, August 24th. They issued an “outperform” rating and a $169.00 price objective for the company. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company reissued an “overweight” rating and issued a $212.00 price objective on shares of Vistra in a research report on Monday, August 10th. Fifteen research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $219.33.
Check Out Our Latest Stock Analysis on VST Key Headlines Impacting Vistra Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:
Positive Sentiment: The reported loan would provide substantial financial support for Vistra’s nuclear expansion plans and may improve the long-term earnings outlook. The report is not yet confirmed as finalized. Trump administration reportedly prepares $4B federal loan to expand Vistra’s nuclear capacity Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment remains supportive. Siebert Williams Shank initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $202 price target, implying significant upside from recent levels. Siebert Williams Shank initiates coverage of Vistra Positive Sentiment: Bernstein reaffirmed its positive view, maintaining an Outperform rating and an $181 target. Analysts have pointed to a wide gap between Vistra’s depressed share price and their longer-term valuation estimates. Bernstein reaffirms Vistra outperform rating Positive Sentiment: Investor attention was also supported by news that Peter Thiel’s investment fund added Vistra to its portfolio, with Vistra and Amazon representing 42% of the fund’s reported holdings. Peter Thiel’s fund adds Vistra Insider Buying and Selling In other Vistra news, CEO James Burke acquired 4,465 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 1st. The stock was acquired at an average cost of $135.25 per share, for a total transaction of $603,891.25. Following the purchase, the chief executive officer owned 1,146,352 shares in the company, valued at approximately $155,044,108. The trade was a 0.39% increase in their position. The purchase was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Also, EVP Scott A. Hudson sold 44,444 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 8th. The shares were sold at an average price of $151.82, for a total transaction of $6,747,488.08. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 331,137 shares in the company, valued at $50,273,219.34. This trade represents a 11.83% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. 0.92% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.
Vistra Price Performance NYSE VST opened at $139.94 on Monday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a current ratio of 0.97 and a quick ratio of 0.87. The stock’s fifty day moving average price is $143.04 and its 200 day moving average price is $151.24. Vistra Corp. has a 1 year low of $132.66 and a 1 year high of $217.10. The company has a market cap of $46.97 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.64 and a beta of 1.38.
Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 EPS for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.61 by ($0.85). The firm had revenue of $4.02 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.46 billion. Vistra had a return on equity of 108.68% and a net margin of 11.55%. As a group, equities research analysts forecast that Vistra Corp. will post 9.04 earnings per share for the current year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Investors of record on Monday, September 21st were given a $0.23 dividend. This is an increase from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.2290. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 0.7%. The ex-dividend date was Monday, September 21st. Vistra’s payout ratio is currently 15.54%.
About Vistra (Free Report)
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) is an integrated energy company headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company operates electricity generation facilities and provides electricity and related energy services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Its portfolio includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage assets.
Vistra also operates a retail electricity business that offers power plans, renewable energy options, and energy-management services. Its retail brands include TXU Energy, Homefield Energy, Dynegy, and Ambit Energy, serving customers in competitive electricity markets across the United States.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Vistra Could Nike’s Brutal Sell-Off Finally Be Running Out of Steam? The AI Buildout Needs Power It Cannot Get: 4 Energy Stocks Already Have It McDonald’s Is Undergoing a Massive New Growth Strategy. Can It Win Back Consumers? MGM Resorts Stock Sinks After Diller Deal Collapse: Overreaction or Warning? Want to see what other hedge funds are holding VST? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report).
Receive News & Ratings for Vistra Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Vistra and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
The US will lend Vistra Corp (VST.N) about $4.2 billion to boost its nuclear power generation, a person familiar with the matter said on Saturday.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright will make the announcement on Monday at Vistra's nuclear plant along Lake Erie in Ohio, said the person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The loan would be used to boost power output, or "uprate" at least three of Vistra's four nuclear stations, which can be done without requiring new licenses from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
The Department of Energy and Vistra did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
According to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, utilities can uprate nuclear plants by refueling with slightly more enriched uranium, or a higher percentage of new fuel, or through major plant modifications such as the replacement of main turbines. Utilities since the 1970s have used uprates to generate more power from reactors, the NRC's website says. As of 2022 the agency had approved more than 170 uprates, according to the NRC.
Vistra has six reactors at four US plants that generate more than 6.5 gigawatts of electricity, enough to power about 3.25 million homes.
US power demand is growing for the first time in decades, driven by surging demand from the expansion of AI data centers, electrification of transportation and cryptocurrency mining.
President Donald Trump set a goal to quadruple US nuclear power capacity by 2050. The US Department of Energy has hundreds of billions of dollars in financing available from its loan office and Wright has said the bulk of that loan capacity will support nuclear power plants.
The Vistra news was first reported by Bloomberg.
(This story has been refiled to remove an incorrect image, with no change to text.)
Peter Thiel, the co-founder and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Palantir Technologies, has invested in several winning companies over the years. He was an early investor in Meta Platforms when it was known only as Facebook, and LinkedIn before Microsoft bought it.
Given his successful track record, Thiel's investments are worth paying attention to. His investment firm, Thiel Macro LLC, recently disclosed new holdings in several stocks connected to the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.
Two of these comprise a substantial 42% of the portfolio by market value. They are Amazon (AMZN -0.37%) and Vistra Corp (VST +1.01%). Here's a deeper dive into these companies to help investors evaluate whether to follow Peter Thiel's lead and buy shares.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why Amazon is an appealing AI stock Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro had no investments in the first quarter of 2026. Suddenly, Thiel loaded up on eight stocks in Q2, with Amazon as its largest holding. This one company comprised 28% of the fund. Notably, the remaining seven were energy-related stocks, leaving Amazon as the outlier.
Amazon may be known as an e-commerce titan, but its position as the world's top cloud computing company, with an impressive 28% market share, is a key factor making it a compelling AI investment. Notably, the company's CEO, Andy Jassy, built the Amazon Web Services (AWS) division into a cloud powerhouse before being selected for the CEO role.
AWS is just one of the many businesses Amazon owns, and it houses the tech titan's artificial intelligence infrastructure. This is the vehicle for delivering AI to other organizations, such as its Seller Assistant, an agentic AI tool helping businesses sell their products. Amazon's goal is for AWS to make it as easy for organizations to construct AI systems as it is to build a website. It's making rapid strides toward achieving this objective.
For example, Amazon reported its AI business exceeded a $25 billion annual revenue run rate in the second quarter, representing a triple-digit year-over-year increase. This contributed to AWS sales expanding 37% year over year in Q2, the fastest growth in 18 quarters.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
90/100
Today's Change
(
-0.37
%) $
-0.92
Current Price
$
248.23
This performance is just the start. Industry forecasts expect the global artificial intelligence market to expand from $618 billion in 2026 to a whopping $1.4 trillion by 2032. That kind of growth suggests Amazon could sustain several years of strong performance in its AI business, especially given its role as a key provider of cloud computing infrastructure.
Vistra stock is such a bargain, its CEO bought shares Aside from Amazon, Peter Thiel's investment fund is focused on energy stocks. How do these companies tie into artificial intelligence? Electricity is the one resource every AI company in the world requires to operate its armies of computers. Without it, there's no AI, which explains why Thiel concentrated the bulk of his holdings in this sector.
Vistra Corp is the one energy stock Thiel invested in that stands out to me. The company provides electricity to 18 states across the U.S., and plans to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Its strategy to meet this goal is to steadily shift to nuclear, solar, and other clean energy sources, helped by its position as the operator of the second-largest fleet of competitive nuclear power plants in the U.S.
The company caught my attention when its CEO, James Burke, bought several thousand shares at the end of August. I find it's a good strategy to look into a business when insiders scoop up company shares, as this indicates they see the stock as undervalued. That's the case here.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
75/100
Today's Change
(
1.01
%) $
1.40
Current Price
$
139.75
Vistra's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13 hovers near a low point over the past year; in the second quarter of 2025, it stood at 28. Meanwhile, its business is thriving.
The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion for the first half of 2026, compared to $2.6 billion in 2025. That's outstanding growth, and Vistra forecasted to end the year with adjusted EBITDA between $6.8 billion and $7.6 billion, up from $5.9 billion last year.
Vistra is poised for continued expansion in the years ahead as AI's electricity demand grows. Data centers housing AI systems typically use graphics processing units (GPUs) to deliver the computational capabilities necessary for artificial intelligence systems. GPUs consume at least 500 watts of power per square foot, which is as much as five times as much electricity as non-AI data centers.
This means Vistra is likely to experience rising customer demand over time, given it is one of the largest power producers in the U.S., according to the company. Its strong position in the energy sector and reasonable valuation are why I bought the stock, and I can see why Peter Thiel picked Vistra as one of his handful of Q2 investments.
Vistra has shed nearly 30% while Wall Street analysts keep raising their price targets, creating a gap that one top analyst thinks is worth 115% upside. The catch sits inside two words that management itself flagged as a problem: ERCOT…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Vistra (NYSE:VST | VST Price Prediction) trades at $138.36. The average analyst price target is $217.58, which implies about 57% upside to where Wall Street thinks it belongs.
Vistra is a Texas-based independent power producer. It runs nuclear, natural gas and solar plants in ERCOT and PJM. AI hyperscalers want round-the-clock baseload power, and Vistra has signed with them: 20-year Meta (NASDAQ:META) PPAs covering 2,600+ MW and a 1,200 MW AWS deal at Comanche Peak.
The most bullish analyst sees far more upside than consensus. Scotiabank’s Andrew Weisel holds a Street-high $298.00 target with a Sector Outperform rating. That implies about 115% upside. When even the consensus gap tops 40%, investors need to know which side has it right.
Cheaper Texas Power Knocked Down Vistra’s 2027 Outlook The biggest problem is falling ERCOT forward prices. On the second-quarter call, management said 2027 ERCOT curves were “meaningfully lower”. It added that higher PJM prices and hedging “don’t fully offset the ERCOT headwind.” Vistra now expects to land near the lower end of its 2027 range of $7.40 billion to $7.80 billion. Texas prices have averaged $30 a megawatt hour, and CEO Jim Burke said directly that “$30 is not going to get new stuff built.”
The stock traded lower at each earnings report: $176.96 at the fourth-quarter report, $159.64 at the first-quarter report, and $143.87 at the second-quarter report. Texas regulators are reviewing the large-load interconnection queue, which management expects to pause for a few months. Unrealized hedging losses of $472M pulled net income to $305M, even as Adjusted EBITDA rose more than 30% to $1.77B.
Analysts Are Looking Past ERCOT to Meta, Cogentrix and Helix Scotiabank’s thesis rests on three elements: hyperscaler PPAs at nuclear and gas plants, wider spark spreads and higher capacity prices in ERCOT and PJM, and Energy Harbor synergies funding buybacks. The second pillar runs into what management itself says about Texas today.
The 2027 numbers still leave out two catalysts. CFO Chris Moldovan said Cogentrix and the Meta PPAs could add “roughly $700 million to our midpoint opportunity.” FERC has approved the Cogentrix deal, which brings a ~5,500 MW gas portfolio. Vistra is also the preferred power provider for Helix, a joint venture with NVIDIA and KKR, and has committed up to $1.0B. Buybacks have reduced the share count by ~30%, with ~$1.2B left on the authorization.
Analysts remain bullish. Four rate the stock Strong Buy, 15 rate it Buy, none rate it Hold or Sell, and one rates it Strong Sell. Their estimates tell a softer story than their ratings. The 2027 EPS consensus has fallen to $10.3811 from $11.3019 60 days ago, with six downward revisions and zero upward revisions in the past 30 days. The next test comes on the third-quarter call, when management will update guidance.
Every Big Power Producer Fell, and NRG Fell Hardest Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) is down 22.37% over the year. At $254.02 against a $347.28 target, it has about 37% upside, less than Vistra. Analysts hold 19 bullish ratings and 3 Holds.
NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) dropped 40.21%. At $95.67 against a $188.56 target, implied upside is about 97%. It has 13 bullish ratings and 3 Holds.
Talen Energy (NASDAQ:TLN) is off 26.49%. At $312.69 against $460.59, it offers about 47% upside, which is also below Vistra’s.
NRG has the largest implied upside in the group. Vistra comes second, with cleaner contracted growth and investment-grade credit. Price targets are estimates and no guarantee.
A 29% Slide While the S&P 500 Gained 14% Vistra trades at $138.36, and 20 analysts set an average target of $217.58, about 57% above the current price. The shares are down 28.96% over the past year and 13.85% year to date. Over the same periods, the S&P 500 rose 14.48% and 11.84%.
The stock sits below both its 50-day average of $144.91 and its 200-day average of $155.39. It trades at a forward P/E of 13, a low multiple for a company with 20-year contracts with tech giants.
I Lean Toward Vistra, but Texas Prices Have to Turn Things look more bullish if Cogentrix closes smoothly, Meta PPAs add to EBITDA in 2027, and Texas data-center load connects to the grid. If all three happen, the about $700 million in extra EBITDA becomes real and the consensus target looks reachable. The bear case gains ground if ERCOT prices stay near $30 and the queue review delays projects past 2027. Falling estimates would then drag targets down to meet the stock.
I lean bullish. At 13 times forward earnings, with large contracted deals and continued buybacks, the market is pricing in a lot of bad news. I’d treat Scotiabank’s $298 as the best-case scenario, though, and the consensus target as the more realistic one.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Key Takeaways Vistra benefits from 6.6 GW of nuclear capacity and a diversified generation portfolio.Talen Energy's 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates imply growth of 242.9% and 54.4%, respectively.Vistra's debt-to-capital is 78.1% versus Talen Energy's 85.38%, while ROE is also higher. The Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry stocks are drawing increased investor attention as the power generation landscape continues to evolve. Growing environmental concerns, stricter emission regulations and supportive government policies, including tax incentives, are accelerating the shift toward cleaner energy sources. Utilities and independent power producers are therefore expanding investments in low-carbon and sustainable generation technologies to meet rising electricity demand from electric vehicles, AI-driven data centers and industrial electrification.
Amid increasing demand for reliable 24x7 power, let’s focus on Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) and Talen Energy Corporation (TLN - Free Report) to generate substantial volumes of clean energy to meet demand from their customers.
Vistra has strengthened its position in nuclear energy following the 2023 acquisition of Energy Harbor, which expanded the nuclear generation portfolio and contributed to the formation of Vistra Vision, the zero-carbon generation business. The company’s earnings visibility has also improved through long-term contracts and extensive hedging, with a substantial portion of generation through 2028 already contracted. Around 3.8 GW of capacity is backed by 20-year power purchase agreements, including deals with Amazon and Meta Platforms, supporting revenue stability and long-term growth.
Talen Energy is also benefiting from its sizable clean energy generation portfolio and strategic shift toward zero-carbon power. The company is modernizing legacy assets while expanding its nuclear and renewable operations to provide reliable, lower-carbon electricity. Strategic acquisitions are further supporting capacity growth. With an extensive generation footprint, a growing clean energy portfolio and exposure to rising power demand, Talen Energy is positioned to benefit from increasing electricity consumption across the United States.
Both companies generate significant volumes of clean electricity and stand to benefit from accelerating power demand, particularly from AI-driven data centers. A closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects, valuation and financial position can help determine how the two stocks compare as investment opportunities.
VST & TLN’s Earnings Growth ProjectionsThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Talen Energy’s earnings per share in 2026 and 2027 indicates a year-over-year increase of 242.9% and 54.4%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The same for Vista’s earnings per share in 2026 and 2027 indicates a year-over-year increase of 71.9% and 16.6%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ValuationVistra currently appears to be trading at a premium compared with Talen Energy on a Price/Earnings Forward 12-month basis.
VST is currently trading at 13.86X compared with TLN's 10.51X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Vista’s Nuclear Asset Advantage over TalenVistra’s nuclear fleet continues to deliver strong operating performance, with capacity factors of about 92.9% in ERCOT and 91% in PJM. VST’s roughly 6.6 GW of nuclear capacity provides greater scale than Talen Energy, while its diversified generation mix across gas, solar, storage and retail helps limit concentration risk.
Debt to CapitalPower generation companies require significant and sustained capital spending to maintain, modernize and expand their operating assets. The integration of newer technologies can further raise investment needs. Consequently, these companies typically fund their long-term capital programs through a mix of internally generated cash flows and external borrowings.
Vistra’s debt-to-capital currently stands at 78.1% compared with Talen Energy’s 85.38%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Return on EquityReturn on equity (“ROE”) is an essential financial indicator that evaluates a company’s efficiency in generating profits from the equity invested by its shareholders. It demonstrates how well management is utilizing the capital provided to increase earnings and deliver value.
VST’s current ROE is 108.68% compared with TLN’s 43.32%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Wrapping UpVistra and Talen Energy continue to benefit from their clean power generation portfolios, which support reliable electricity supply and rising customer demand across their markets.
From an investment perspective, Vistra currently appears better positioned, supported by a lower reliance on debt to fund operations and a stronger return on equity than Talen Energy. The nuclear assets continue to deliver strong operating performance, while its more diversified generation portfolio gives Vistra an advantage over Talen Energy.
Considering these factors, Vistra holds a marginal advantage over Talen Energy, even though both stocks currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
In the latest trading session, Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) closed at $140.82, marking a +2.03% move from the previous day. The stock exceeded the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.17% for the day. At the same time, the Dow lost 0.26%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.09%.
Coming into today, shares of the company had gained 0.47% in the past month. In that same time, the Utilities sector lost 7.05%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.24%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Vistra Corp. in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $2.89, indicating a 65.14% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $7.76 billion, up 56.19% from the prior-year quarter.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $9.04 per share and a revenue of $22.59 billion, signifying shifts of +71.86% and +27.35%, respectively, from the last year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Vistra Corp. should also be noted by investors. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 1.88% lower. Vistra Corp. presently features a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at valuation, Vistra Corp. is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 15.27. This denotes a discount relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 16.19.
The Utility - Electric Power industry is part of the Utilities sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 110, this industry ranks in the top 45% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
To follow VST in the coming trading sessions, be sure to utilize Zacks.com.
IRVING, Texas, Sept. 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Vistra (NYSE: VST) plans to report its third quarter 2026 financial and operating results on Friday, Nov. 6, 2026, during a live conference call and webcast beginning at 10 a.m.
The owners and operators of commercial reactors in the U.S. are planning for a larger and longer-lasting fleet. A recent survey of utility companies from the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) highlights rising interest in new reactors and expectations for operating lives beyond 80 years.
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) has had a busy stretch this month that included a major debt offering and a new long-term power supply agreement with a data center developer.
Vistra shares are advancing steadily. What’s pushing VST stock higher? The $1.5 Billion Notes OfferingOn September. 10, Vistra priced an underwritten public offering of $1.5 billion in junior subordinated notes, split between $850 million of Series A notes due 2057 at a 7.00% initial interest rate and $650 million of Series B notes due 2057 at 7.25%.
The notes are unsecured obligations of Vistra Operations Company LLC, guaranteed by Vistra. Net proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, including funding the redemption of Vistra’s outstanding Series A and Series B preferred stock upon their respective reset dates in October and December.
The offering is expected to close September 24.
On September 21, New Era Energy & Digital announced that its subsidiary, TCDC PowerCo LLC, entered into a 20-year power purchase agreement with Luminant, a Vistra affiliate, under which Luminant will supply between 200 MW and 207 MW of power for Phase 1 of New Era’s Texas Critical Data Center project.
Power will come from Vistra’s 1,180 MW natural gas-fired facility in Odessa, Texas, adjacent to the data center site, with delivery expected in the third quarter of 2027. Alongside the PPA, the two companies also signed a development framework agreement giving Vistra a 5% non-voting interest in the portion of the project it powers, along with rights of first refusal on future development at the site and other New Era projects.
“Demand for reliable power to support digital infrastructure continues to grow across the United States,” said Claudia Morrow, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategy at Vistra.
Read Next
Vistra Shares Edge HigherVST Price Action: At the time of publication, Vistra shares are trading 1.24% higher at $139.65, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image via Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Andra AP fonden trimmed its position in shares of Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) by 75.9% during the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 3,622 shares of the company’s stock after selling 11,400 shares during the period. Andra AP fonden’s holdings in Vistra were worth $575,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
A number of other hedge funds and other institutional investors have also recently modified their holdings of the company. State Street Corp increased its stake in Vistra by 0.5% during the second quarter. State Street Corp now owns 16,850,452 shares of the company’s stock worth $2,672,987,000 after acquiring an additional 79,972 shares during the last quarter. Silicon Valley Capital Partners bought a new position in shares of Vistra during the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $39,000. Premier Financial Group bought a new position in shares of Vistra during the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $34,000. Junto Capital Management LP raised its holdings in Vistra by 126.5% during the 2nd quarter. Junto Capital Management LP now owns 535,959 shares of the company’s stock valued at $85,019,000 after buying an additional 299,309 shares during the period. Finally, IPG Investment Advisors LLC raised its holdings in Vistra by 7.8% during the 2nd quarter. IPG Investment Advisors LLC now owns 15,500 shares of the company’s stock valued at $2,459,000 after buying an additional 1,123 shares during the period. 90.88% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.
Insider Activity at Vistra In other Vistra news, EVP Scott Hudson sold 44,444 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 8th. The stock was sold at an average price of $151.82, for a total transaction of $6,747,488.08. Following the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 331,137 shares in the company, valued at $50,273,219.34. This trade represents a 11.83% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CEO James A. Burke bought 4,465 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 1st. The shares were purchased at an average cost of $135.25 per share, with a total value of $603,891.25. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer owned 1,146,352 shares in the company, valued at $155,044,108. This represents a 0.39% increase in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this purchase are available in the official SEC disclosure. 0.92% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In VST has been the subject of a number of analyst reports. The Goldman Sachs Group set a $206.00 price target on Vistra in a research report on Wednesday, August 12th. Weiss Ratings downgraded shares of Vistra from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “hold (c)” rating in a research note on Thursday, August 13th. Zacks Research downgraded shares of Vistra from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Tuesday, August 18th. TD Cowen lowered their target price on shares of Vistra from $222.00 to $221.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, August 19th. Finally, BNP Paribas Exane set a $255.00 price target on shares of Vistra in a research note on Wednesday, August 19th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Vistra presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $221.88. Read Our Latest Analysis on VST
Vistra Stock Down 0.1% Shares of VST opened at $137.89 on Friday. The firm has a market capitalization of $46.28 billion, a P/E ratio of 23.29 and a beta of 1.40. Vistra Corp. has a 12-month low of $132.66 and a 12-month high of $217.10. The company has a current ratio of 0.97, a quick ratio of 0.87 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87. The firm has a fifty day moving average price of $145.81 and a 200-day moving average price of $152.18.
Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 EPS for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $1.61 by ($0.85). The company had revenue of $4.02 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $5.46 billion. Vistra had a return on equity of 108.68% and a net margin of 11.55%. Equities research analysts expect that Vistra Corp. will post 9.04 earnings per share for the current year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The company also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Investors of record on Monday, September 21st will be paid a $0.23 dividend. This represents a $0.92 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.7%. This is an increase from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.2290. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Monday, September 21st. Vistra’s payout ratio is currently 15.54%.
Vistra Company Profile (Free Report)
Vistra Corp. is an integrated energy company headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company operates electricity generation and retail energy businesses, serving residential, commercial, industrial and wholesale customers primarily across the United States.
Vistra’s generation portfolio includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery energy storage facilities. Through its retail operations, the company provides electricity, natural gas and renewable energy plans under brands that include TXU Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy and Ambit Energy.
The company was established in 2016 following the separation of Energy Future Holdings’ competitive energy businesses.
Featured Articles Five stocks we like better than Vistra Hims & Hers Slides Nearly 7% as Legal Pressure Adds to Its Growing List of Risks Paychex Plunges, Providing the Entry Investors Have Been Waiting For The Case for Buying High-Yield General Mills Just Strengthened SanDisk’s $1,800 Breakout Turns Memory Hardware Into a Profit Story Want to see what other hedge funds are holding VST? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report).
Receive News & Ratings for Vistra Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Vistra and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
In the latest close session, Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) was down 1.74% at $137.97. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.76%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.68%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 1.13%.
The company's stock has climbed by 0.99% in the past month, exceeding the Utilities sector's loss of 4.18% and lagging the S&P 500's gain of 1.26%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Vistra Corp. in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $2.89, signifying a 65.14% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $7.76 billion, indicating a 56.19% upward movement from the same quarter last year.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $9.04 per share and a revenue of $22.59 billion, signifying shifts of +71.86% and +27.35%, respectively, from the last year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Vistra Corp. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 1.88% lower. At present, Vistra Corp. boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
From a valuation perspective, Vistra Corp. is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 15.53. This signifies a discount in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 16.62 for its industry.
The Utility - Electric Power industry is part of the Utilities sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 104, placing it within the top 43% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this company have returned +3.8%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.3% change. During this period, the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, which Vistra falls in, has lost 4.5%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Vistra is expected to post earnings of $2.89 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +65.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.2%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $9.04 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +71.9%. This estimate has changed -1.9% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $10.54 indicates a change of +16.6% from what Vistra is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.4%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Vistra is rated Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of Vistra, the consensus sales estimate of $7.75 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +55.8%. The $22.59 billion and $25.77 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +27.4% and +14.1%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryVistra reported revenues of $4.02 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -5.5%. EPS of $1.8 for the same period compares with $1.01 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.29 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -36.17%. The EPS surprise was +16.88%.
Over the last four quarters, Vistra surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Vistra is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Vistra. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.
New Era Energy & Digital (NASDAQ:NUAI) has locked in power for one of the country's most closely watched new data center projects, securing a 20-year agreement with Vistra Corp that supplies electricity for the first phase of its Texas Critical Data Center.
The company said its subsidiary, TCDC PowerCo, has signed the power purchase agreement with Vistra affiliate Luminant ET Services Company, an affiliate of for a minimum of 200 MW and up to 207 MW to supply Phase 1 of the project.
Power will come from Vistra's 1,180 MW natural gas-fired plant in Odessa, Texas, which sits next to the TCDC site.
The agreement carries automatic one-year renewals after its initial 20-year term, with firm, contracted power expected to reach TCDC in the third quarter of 2027.
"Having firm, contracted power for Phase 1 in New Era's name is an incredible milestone which we believe materially reduces Phase 1 development risk at TCDC," said Charlie Nelson, CEO of New Era.
"With the land secured, construction permits in hand, Phase 1 power contracted for 20 years, and room to expand to multiple phases, we believe this is an attractive opportunity to any quality tenant currently in the market."
Alongside the PPA, New Era and Vistra affiliates also signed a development framework agreement giving Vistra a 5% non-voting interest in the powered portion of the project once delivery begins, plus first refusal rights on future TCDC development and first offer rights on other New Era projects.
"Demand for reliable power to support digital infrastructure continues to grow across the United States," said Claudia Morrow, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategy at Vistra. "We are pleased to work with New Era on a long-term power arrangement for the TCDC project and to establish a framework that allows us to evaluate additional power opportunities together over time."
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) shares dropped 2% during mid-day trading on Friday . The stock traded as low as $140.21 and last traded at $140.7470. 5,024,151 shares changed hands during mid-day trading, an increase of 3% from the average session volume of 4,879,384 shares. The stock had previously closed at $143.56.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth Several research firms have weighed in on VST. Zacks Research cut Vistra from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Tuesday, August 18th. Sanford C. Bernstein set a $187.00 price target on shares of Vistra and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 16th. Scotiabank upped their price target on shares of Vistra from $293.00 to $298.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Wednesday, July 15th. Morgan Stanley raised their price target on shares of Vistra from $212.00 to $227.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a research report on Friday, August 21st. Finally, Weiss Ratings downgraded shares of Vistra from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “hold (c)” rating in a report on Thursday, August 13th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have issued a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $221.88.
Get Our Latest Stock Analysis on VST
Vistra Stock Down 2.0% The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a current ratio of 0.97 and a quick ratio of 0.87. The company has a market cap of $47.24 billion, a P/E ratio of 23.77 and a beta of 1.40. The stock has a 50-day moving average of $147.25 and a 200 day moving average of $152.94. Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 EPS for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $1.61 by ($0.85). Vistra had a net margin of 11.55% and a return on equity of 108.68%. The firm had revenue of $4.02 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.46 billion. Research analysts anticipate that Vistra Corp. will post 9.19 earnings per share for the current year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Stockholders of record on Monday, September 21st will be paid a $0.23 dividend. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.7%. The ex-dividend date is Monday, September 21st. This is an increase from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio is 15.54%.
Insider Buying and Selling In other news, EVP Scott Hudson sold 44,444 shares of the stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 8th. The stock was sold at an average price of $151.82, for a total value of $6,747,488.08. Following the completion of the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 331,137 shares in the company, valued at approximately $50,273,219.34. This represents a 11.83% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CEO James A. Burke acquired 4,465 shares of Vistra stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 1st. The shares were purchased at an average price of $135.25 per share, for a total transaction of $603,891.25. Following the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 1,146,352 shares in the company, valued at $155,044,108. The trade was a 0.39% increase in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this purchase is available in the SEC filing. 0.92% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.
Institutional Trading of Vistra Institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the company. BlackRock Inc. bought a new stake in shares of Vistra during the 2nd quarter valued at about $4,610,496,000. Norges Bank purchased a new position in Vistra during the 4th quarter worth $746,729,000. Capital World Investors purchased a new stake in shares of Vistra during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $574,499,000. Bank of America Corp DE purchased a new stake in Vistra during the second quarter worth about $468,354,000. Finally, Bank of New York Mellon Corp purchased a new position in Vistra in the second quarter valued at approximately $381,938,000. Institutional investors own 90.88% of the company’s stock.
About Vistra (Get Free Report)
Vistra Corp. is an integrated energy company headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company operates electricity generation and retail energy businesses, serving residential, commercial, industrial and wholesale customers primarily across the United States.
Vistra’s generation portfolio includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery energy storage facilities. Through its retail operations, the company provides electricity, natural gas and renewable energy plans under brands that include TXU Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy and Ambit Energy.
The company was established in 2016 following the separation of Energy Future Holdings’ competitive energy businesses.
Featured Articles Five stocks we like better than Vistra Lennar’s Earnings Miss May Be Sending a Bigger Warning About U.S. Housing Priced for a Pullback or More Gains? These 3 Stocks Are Testing the Limits These 3 Agentic AI Stocks Have More Than Hype Behind Their Growth Stories Not Just Banks: 3 Trading Stocks to Watch After the Fed Rate Hike Receive News & Ratings for Vistra Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Vistra and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
I maintain my Strong Buy rating and $220 price target on Vistra Corp., with Q2 2026 results strengthening my conviction. VST's diversified generation assets and integration in PJM/ERCOT position it to capitalize on AI-driven electricity scarcity and accelerating data center demand. Helix digital infrastructure offers new upside optionality, but I await signed contracts before factoring material value into my valuation.
Advanced chips from Nvidia and others deliver impressive computing power but also consume massive amounts of electricity. As a result, hyperscalers are searching high and low for reliable power as these data centers come online.
The energy demand boom is coming as nuclear energy makes a major comeback. U.S. policymakers have set a goal of quadrupling the country's nuclear capacity by 2050, creating a potentially significant tailwind for the nuclear sector.
Vistra (VST -0.80%), Constellation Energy (CEG -0.14%), and Talen Energy (TLN +1.93%) are three companies positioned to benefit from growing power demand. But which stock offers investors the most compelling opportunity today? Let's compare the three companies and find out.
Image source: Getty Images.
Constellation Energy is a clear leader in nuclear power capacity Everyone is seeking reliable, clean energy to meet growing electricity demand. For AI data centers, nuclear power is an ideal solution. That's because nuclear delivers reliable 24/7 baseload energy, which is needed to meet the continuous compute demand of training and inference for these AI models.
In total power capacity, Constellation is the clear leader with 55 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity. Of this, roughly 22 GW comes from nuclear power, giving Constellation the largest nuclear fleet in the U.S. Constellation has secured major deals with hyperscalers in recent years, including 20-year power purchase agreements with both Microsoft and Meta Platforms.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
80/100
Today's Change
(
-0.14
%) $
-0.36
Current Price
$
259.53
Constellation's nuclear fleet achieved a 93% capacity factor in the second quarter. Running at this high a capacity factor maximizes megawatt-hours and gives Constellation operational leverage, as variable costs remain relatively low. The capacity factor reflects its reliability, which helps Constellation command a premium on contracted PPA rates.
Vistra is carving out its place in the data center market Vistra is the second-largest energy producer of the bunch, with 44 GW of total power generation capacity. Of that capacity, roughly 6.6 GW comes from nuclear energy in the ERCOT (Texas) and PJM interconnection regions.
In September 2025, Vistra signed a 20-year PPA with Amazon Web Services for nuclear power from Camanche Park in Texas. And in January 2026, the company signed a 20-year PPA with Meta Platforms for 2,609 MW from its nuclear plants in the PJM region. Vistra's capacity factor is a solid 92.9% in ERCOT and 91% in PJM but still trails Constellation's impressive figure.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
75/100
Today's Change
(
-0.80
%) $
-1.14
Current Price
$
140.39
In another major agreement, Vistra, KKR, Nvidia, and Kuwait Investment Authority announced the launch of Helix Digital Infrastructure in June. Helix will facilitate the development of AI data centers and is backed by $10 billion in investments. As part of this partnership, Vistra becomes Helix's preferred power provider.
Talen Energy is anchored to Amazon Talen Energy is a smaller player that owns and operates roughly 15.7 GW of power generation capacity across PJM, Ohio, Indiana, and Montana. The company also has 2.2 GW of nuclear power capacity through a 90% interest in the Susquehanna Nuclear Power Plant in Pennsylvania. This is a small portion of Talen's power capacity, but it makes up most of its clean energy output.
Today's Change
(
1.93
%) $
5.45
Current Price
$
287.60
Talen is anchored to one massive hyperscaler partner: Amazon. In March 2024, Talen sold its 960-MW Cumulus data center campus (land and infrastructure directly adjacent to its Susquehanna nuclear plant) to AWS for $650 million in cash. In June 2025, AWS signed a PPA with Talen through 2042 to deliver up to 1,920 MW of nuclear power, with incremental ramp-up.
Which energy stock is a better buy today? If you're considering investing in the AI data story, these three stocks offer compelling options. If you're more aggressive, Talen Energy is a high-risk, high-reward small-cap stock anchored by its co-location agreement with Amazon Web Services. Risk remains high because its clean baseload energy strategy relies on a single nuclear plant, Susquehanna in Pennsylvania.
Constellation and Vistra remain aggressive energy plays relative to traditional utilities, but both should benefit from growing demand for clean power. If I had to choose between the two, I'd give the nod to Constellation Energy because of its massive nuclear fleet and long-duration power purchase agreements that provide cash-flow visibility for years to come.
Courtney Carlsen has positions in Constellation Energy, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vistra. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Constellation Energy, KKR, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Talen Energy, and Vistra. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The AI market's rapid expansion has sparked a massive increase in electricity demand, especially among data centers, over the past few years. That AI power boom is generating strong tailwinds for Constellation Energy (CEG -0.63%) and Vistra (VST +0.19%), two of the largest independent power producers in the United States.
Over the past three years, Constellation's stock has rallied 137%, and Vistra's stock has soared 330%. Let's see which of these AI-driven electrification stocks is a better buy right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
The differences between Constellation and Vistra Constellation's nuclear, natural gas, oil, geothermal, hydro, wind, and solar facilities have a total capacity of 55 GW. That's enough power for roughly 27 million homes. It directly sells its power to residential and commercial customers through its eponymous retail electricity services.
Constellation operates the country's largest nuclear fleet with a total capacity of 22 GW. That business serves 80% of the Fortune 100, including the top hyperscalers, and drives most of its earnings growth. A major catalyst has been the Zero-Emission Nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC), which was established under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. If power prices are too low, the PTC subsidizes its business, but if they're high, the PTC amplifies its gains.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
80/100
Today's Change
(
-0.63
%) $
-1.65
Current Price
$
258.25
Vistra operates natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities with a total capacity of 44 GW, which can power 22 million homes. It sells electricity through its subsidiaries, including TXU Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy, and Ambit, as well as other utilities. Like Constellation, Vistra holds long-term power purchasing agreements (PPAs) with several tech titans. It also benefits from the PTC and other tax credits for renewable energy and storage providers.
However, Vistra's nuclear fleet, which accounts for only about 15% of its total capacity, is much smaller than Constellation's. It primarily relies on natural gas, which accounts for 62% of its capacity, as well as its coal-fired and renewable businesses to drive earnings growth.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
75/100
Today's Change
(
0.19
%) $
0.27
Current Price
$
141.80
Which company is growing faster? In 2025, Constellation's adjusted operating earnings rose 8%. For 2026, it expects that figure to grow 22%-33% to $11.50-$12.50 per share. At $256, it trades at 21 times the midpoint of that outlook. Analysts expect its adjusted earnings to rise 29% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.
Several catalysts should drive that growth: its 20-year PPA with Microsoft to restart Unit 1 at Three Mile Island (rebranded as the Crane Clean Energy Center), the scaling of its PPAs with Meta and Walmart, the full integration of Calpine, which it acquired this January; and capacity-boosting upgrades for its existing plants.
In 2025, Vistra's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from ongoing operations -- which is comparable to Constellation's adjusted operating earnings -- rose 5%. For 2026, it expects that figure to rise 15%-29% to $6.8-$7.6 billion. With an enterprise value of $65.7 billion, it trades at just nine times the midpoint of that outlook.
Analysts expect Vistra's adjusted EBITDA to grow 29% in 2026 and 5% in 2027. That growth should be fueled by its massive, AI-driven PPAs with Meta and Amazon, its planned takeover of Cogentrix, expected to close by the end of 2026, and Helix Digital Infrastructure -- a newly formed joint venture to develop AI data centers.
Which stock is the better buy right now? Constellation and Vistra have both been under pressure over the past year as investors fretted over higher interest rates and a potential slowdown in AI spending. However, they're both still reliable long-term plays on the insatiable demand for more electricity.
If I had to pick one of these stocks to capitalize on the AI energy boom, I'd pick Vistra because it's more diversified, has more exposure to natural gas (the single largest source of electricity for U.S. data centers today) than Constellation, and its stock is fundamentally cheaper. Constellation is still a great nuclear play, but its stock doesn't seem like a screaming bargain yet.
Corient Private Wealth LP lowered its holdings in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST – Free Report) by 26.2% during the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund owned 76,171 shares of the company’s stock after selling 27,078 shares during the period. Corient Private Wealth LP’s holdings in Vistra were worth $12,083,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.
Other institutional investors have also recently bought and sold shares of the company. BlackRock Inc. bought a new stake in Vistra in the second quarter worth about $4,610,496,000. Norges Bank bought a new position in shares of Vistra during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $746,729,000. Fifth Third Bancorp increased its stake in shares of Vistra by 95.1% during the 1st quarter. Fifth Third Bancorp now owns 177,199 shares of the company’s stock worth $26,638,000 after purchasing an additional 86,393 shares during the last quarter. Payden & Rygel increased its stake in shares of Vistra by 3,118.2% during the 4th quarter. Payden & Rygel now owns 35,400 shares of the company’s stock worth $5,711,000 after purchasing an additional 34,300 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Signature Estate & Investment Advisors LLC bought a new stake in shares of Vistra in the 4th quarter worth approximately $29,875,000. Institutional investors own 90.88% of the company’s stock.
Insider Buying and Selling In other news, CEO James Burke purchased 4,465 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 1st. The stock was purchased at an average cost of $135.25 per share, with a total value of $603,891.25. Following the acquisition, the chief executive officer directly owned 1,146,352 shares in the company, valued at approximately $155,044,108. This trade represents a 0.39% increase in their ownership of the stock. The purchase was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. Also, Director John R. Sult sold 6,500 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, June 18th. The shares were sold at an average price of $170.00, for a total transaction of $1,105,000.00. Following the transaction, the director owned 70,714 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $12,021,380. This trade represents a 8.42% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.
Vistra Trading Up 0.5% NYSE:VST opened at $141.50 on Wednesday. Vistra Corp. has a 1 year low of $132.66 and a 1 year high of $219.82. The stock’s fifty day moving average price is $148.20 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $153.49. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a current ratio of 0.97 and a quick ratio of 0.87. The company has a market cap of $47.49 billion, a P/E ratio of 23.90 and a beta of 1.40. Vistra (NYSE:VST – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.61 by ($0.85). The company had revenue of $4.02 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.46 billion. Vistra had a net margin of 11.55% and a return on equity of 108.68%. As a group, analysts expect that Vistra Corp. will post 9.21 EPS for the current year.
Vistra Increases Dividend The company also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Investors of record on Monday, September 21st will be paid a dividend of $0.23 per share. This is an increase from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. This represents a $0.92 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.7%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Monday, September 21st. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio is presently 15.54%.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In VST has been the topic of several research analyst reports. Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $190.00 price objective on shares of Vistra in a research note on Thursday, May 21st. Zacks Research lowered Vistra from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Tuesday, August 18th. TD Cowen dropped their price target on Vistra from $222.00 to $221.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, August 19th. Sanford C. Bernstein set a $187.00 price target on Vistra and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 16th. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group set a $206.00 price objective on Vistra in a report on Wednesday, August 12th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, fourteen have given a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Vistra currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $223.53.
View Our Latest Stock Report on VST
About Vistra (Free Report)
Vistra Corp. is an integrated energy company headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company operates electricity generation and retail energy businesses, serving residential, commercial, industrial and wholesale customers primarily across the United States.
Vistra’s generation portfolio includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery energy storage facilities. Through its retail operations, the company provides electricity, natural gas and renewable energy plans under brands that include TXU Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy and Ambit Energy.
The company was established in 2016 following the separation of Energy Future Holdings’ competitive energy businesses.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Vistra Running on Empty: 3 Energy Plays for Europe’s Deep Freeze 3 Healthcare Stocks for 3 Stages of Life Curaleaf Tries To Roll Up Aurora In a Hostile Cannabis Bid MarketBeat’s Most Downgraded Stocks in Q3: 2 Look Cheap, 1 Looks Risky
Receive News & Ratings for Vistra Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Vistra and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
The recommendations of Wall Street analysts are often relied on by investors when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Media reports about these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts changing their ratings often affect a stock's price. Do they really matter, though?
Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.
Vistra currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.12, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 17 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.12 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 17 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 16 are Strong Buy, representing 94.1% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for VST
Check price target & stock forecast for Vistra here>>>
While the ABR calls for buying Vistra, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.
Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.
In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABRIn spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.
The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.
On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Furthermore, the different grades of the Zacks Rank are applied proportionately across all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide earnings estimates for the current year. In other words, at all times, this tool maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns.
Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.
Should You Invest in VST?In terms of earnings estimate revisions for Vistra, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has declined 0.2% over the past month to $9.21.
Analysts' growing pessimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates lower, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to plunge in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Vistra. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, it could be wise to take the Buy-equivalent ABR for Vistra with a grain of salt.
On the surface, Vistra (VST -5.16%) sounds like a boring utility stock. Indeed, in some ways it is: The Texas-based company sells electricity to homes and businesses in the U.S. It might keep the lights on, but "thrilling growth stock" is probably not the first phrase that comes to mind.
And yet, if you bought Vistra stock five years ago and held on through the years, you've definitely seen at least the energy side of the company's portfolio light up.
Image source: Getty Images.
Five years ago, Vistra was trading for about $17 a share. Today it trades at $142 a pop. Over five years, that's a roughly 663% gain. If you had invested $10,000 in Vistra five years ago, your investment would be worth over $76,350 today.
Here's an interesting tidbit: Over the past five years, Vistra has nearly kept pace with Nvidia (NVDA -3.36%), which has gained aboyt 854% over the last half decade.
Data by YCharts.
Of course, that last fact isn't a pure coincidence. AI data centers need both chips and power, and Vistra has benefited from at least the latter. What's more, data centers are expected to need tremendous amounts of power in the future. That demand has remade boring ol' Vistra into something that looks like an exciting growth stock.
Granted, the next five years of Vistra probably won't deliver another ninefold gain. And yet for investors who believe electricity demand will keep climbing, this power giant could be worth adding to a diversified portfolio.
Steven Porrello has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Vistra. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
