Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The first five months of 2026 were rough on Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX 2.22%). The biotech's shares moved in the wrong direction through early June. However, the drugmaker has bounced back in style over the past month, with its stock gaining 10%. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is now up 9% this year and recently hit a fresh 52-week high. Is there more upside left for the stock? Let's find out.

Potential catalysts on the horizon Several recent developments explain why the market is increasingly excited about Vertex Pharmaceuticals' prospects. First, the company recently received a label expansion for Casgevy, a gene-editing medicine for sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT), two blood-related diseases. Casgevy is now indicated to treat patients as young as two who have TDT or SCD (it was previously approved for people 12 and older).

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This regulatory milestone adds 5,500 patients to Vertex's addressable market, but, even more importantly, it allows patients and their families to treat these diseases before they have had time to significantly impact their lives. Casgevy has not generated much revenue since its 2023 approval. This label expansion should help boost its sales. Second, Vertex Pharmaceuticals is awaiting approval for povetacicept, an investigational medicine for IgA nephropathy (IgAN), a kidney disease. U.S. regulators could give this therapy the green light by the end of November.

Povetacicept would be a key addition to Vertex's lineup. Given the more than 1.5 million IgAN patients worldwide and the medicine's potential approval across other indications, some analysts project it could reach peak sales of about $4.3 billion. Third, Vertex Pharmaceuticals has several other late-stage clinical trial candidates that could make good progress. For instance, the company is developing inaxaplin, a potential therapy for APOL-1-mediated kidney disease, and expects some data readouts later this year.

Lastly, Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced the acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX 0.05%), a biotech company focused on developing medicines for endocrine diseases, for $10 billion in cash. Vertex estimates that this buyout adds more than $5 billion in potential peak annual sales to its lineup. All these developments make Vertex Pharmaceuticals' medium-term prospects attractive.

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The core business is still going strong Vertex Pharmaceuticals remains the leader in its core therapeutic area: developing medicines for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). This rare disease causes thick mucus to form in the lungs, disrupting the airways and leading to chronic infections. Vertex remains the only game in town. It markets the only drugs that treat the underlying causes of CF. Though the biotech has been dominating this area for a long time, business is still good. In the first quarter, Vertex Pharmaceuticals' revenue increased by 8% year over year to $2.99 billion. The company's adjusted earnings per share climbed 10% year over year to $4.47.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals still has a decent patient population to address as it expands into new territories and earns new label expansions, especially for younger patients. The company's core business should remain a growth driver over the next decade, as its most important products won't face patent cliffs until the late 2030s. Even though some pharmaceutical companies are developing competing therapies, all previous attempts have failed. Successes may come, eventually, but that's also why Vertex has diversified its lineup.

The company's newer non-CF approvals, including Casgevy and Journavx, a medicine for acute pain, should start meaningfully contributing to top-line growth within a couple of years. Vertex expects at least $500 million in non-CF revenue this year. That will represent less than 5% of its revenue, but with Casgevy gaining traction thanks to label expansions and Journavx meeting strong demand for non-opioid pain drugs, they should post solid sales growth over the next few years. So, Vertex Pharmaceuticals still has plenty of upside ahead, even though it recently hit a new 52-week high. Investors can safely hold this stock for the long term.

No stock has generated more buzz in recent weeks than Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), more commonly known as SpaceX. That's understandable, considering the space technology and artificial intelligence (AI) innovator conducted the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history.

But buzz doesn't always translate to great returns (as many who bought SpaceX shares after its post-IPO surge are finding out). While SpaceX gets the headlines, some smart investors are loading up on another stock instead -- Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX +6.13%).

Image source: Getty Images.

Greater market dominance than SpaceX One key reason investors have been attracted to SpaceX is its commanding position in the satellite internet services and rocket launch markets. However, Vertex arguably has greater market dominance in its core arena than SpaceX.

Only five therapies have been approved for addressing the underlying genetic cause of cystic fibrosis (CF), a rare genetic disease that affects an estimated 105,000 people worldwide. Vertex markets all of them, giving the drugmaker a virtual monopoly in the CF indication.

SpaceX will soon have a formidable competitor to its lucrative Starlink business from Amazon (AMZN +0.55%) Leo. Meanwhile, Vertex has little to worry about from challengers at this point. The most advanced experimental therapies that even have a shot at challenging Vertex's blockbuster CF franchise are only in Phase 2 clinical testing. No patent cliff is in sight that would open the door to serious generic threats, either. Vertex's key U.S. and European patents for its most powerful CF drug, Alyftrek, don't expire until 2039.

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CF isn't Vertex's only area of focus. The company has two other products gaining market momentum -- CRISPR gene-editing therapy Casgevy and non-opioid pain medication Journavx. These two therapies together generated roughly 25% of Vertex's product revenue growth in its latest quarter.

Importantly, Vertex's market dominance is much more profitable than SpaceX's. The big biotech company posted adjusted earnings of $4.7 billion last year, compared with SpaceX's net loss of $4.9 billion.

Transformative launches potentially on the way SpaceX completed 167 launches last year with its Falcon 9 rockets and Starship reusable spacecraft. However, Vertex has some potential launches of a different sort on the way that could be transformative.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is scheduled to make an approval decision for povetacicept in the treatment of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) by Nov. 30, 2026. IgAN affects around three times more patients in the U.S. and Europe alone than CF does worldwide. Vertex is also evaluating povetacicept in Phase 2 studies targeting primary membranous nephropathy and generalized myasthenia gravis, which together affect around three times as many patients in the U.S. and Europe as CF does worldwide.

Patient dosing in a late-stage study evaluating zimislecel in treating severe Type 1 Diabetes has resumed after a temporary delay while Vertex performed a manufacturing analysis. It seems likely that the company will file for global regulatory approvals of the therapy next year, assuming the Phase 3 results are positive.

Two other launches could be around the corner as well. Vertex expects to complete patient enrollment in two Phase 3 studies of suzetrigine (Journavx) in diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) by the end of this year. Eventual approval in treating DPN would open up an additional patient population of around 2.5 million for Journavx.

And that's not all. Vertex's pipeline features another late-stage candidate, inaxaplin, which targets APOL1-mediated kidney disease (AMKD). This disease affects around 250,000 people, and there aren't any approved treatments for it.

Risks vs. rewards Every investment comes with potential risks and rewards. Vertex's approved products and promising pipeline offer clear rewards over the next few years. However, the company faces several risks, notably the possibility of regulatory setbacks and clinical failures.

But many investors could reasonably conclude that Vertex's overall risk-reward proposition is more appealing than SpaceX's. That's especially true given each stock's valuation. SpaceX's shares trade at a whopping 56.7 times projected 2026 sales. Vertex's forward price-to-sales multiple is around 10x.

Investing in SpaceX is tantamount to placing a bet on a future that hasn't arrived yet, with that future already baked into the space stock's valuation. Buying Vertex Pharmaceuticals, on the other hand, is more like betting on a future supported by prior clinical results that inspire confidence, with a share price that reflects some uncertainty. The latter seems like the smarter wager.