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Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 30, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis oil refiner is expected to post quarterly earnings of $9.81 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +330.3%.

Revenues are expected to be $35.95 billion, up 20.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 34.24% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Valero Energy?For Valero Energy, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -1.96%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Valero Energy will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Valero Energy would post earnings of $3.07 per share when it actually produced earnings of $4.22, delivering a surprise of +37.46%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Valero Energy doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerCVR Energy (CVI - Free Report) , another stock in the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $0.18 for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of +178.3%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $2.17 billion, up 23.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for CVR has been revised 24.8% down to the current level. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, reflecting an equal Most Accurate Estimate.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP makes it difficult to conclusively predict that CVR will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Key Takeaways Valero benefits from elevated crack spreads, strong fuel demand and constrained global refining capacity.Rising demand for U.S. Gulf Coast barrels is tightening product inventories.Its Gulf Coast system and logistics network support higher exports while domestic demand stays resilient. Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) is among the largest independent refiners in the United States, with a combined high-complexity throughput capacity of nearly 3 million barrels per day across its refineries. Its refining footprint is heavily concentrated along the U.S. Gulf Coast, providing feedstock sourcing flexibility and access to high-demand growth markets for selling its refined products. Alongside refining, the company runs a growing renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel business through Diamond Green Diesel, as well as 12 ethanol plants.

The current business environment remains supportive for refining players, including Valero. The 3-2-1 crack spread, widely recognized as an indicator of refining profitability, has risen significantly since the start of the conflict in the Middle East and remains at elevated levels. Moreover, during its first-quarter earnings call, VLO noted that constrained global refining capacity, along with tightening refined product flows due to the conflict, has increased demand for refined products, particularly for U.S. Gulf Coast barrels.

Valero is particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends. Management highlighted a sharp increase in export demand, especially for jet fuel and distillates, which has contributed to declining U.S. product inventories. Its strategically located Gulf Coast refining system and extensive logistics network position Valero to capture increased export volumes while continuing to capitalize on resilient domestic demand. Moreover, low product inventories in key markets are expected to support refining fundamentals and keep margins steady, helping VLO sustain its profitability.

PARR and PBF to Benefit From the Refining EnvironmentPar Pacific Holdings (PARR - Free Report)  operates an integrated downstream energy business across the United States, with fuel retail operations in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho; refining operations in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington and Montana; and a supporting logistics network. Its refineries have a combined crude oil throughput capacity of 219,000 barrels per day and produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, marine fuels, asphalt and other petroleum products. PARR currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

PBF Energy (PBF - Free Report) has a geographically diverse refining network with large-scale processing capacity and a highly complex refining system. It operates six refineries, Delaware City Refinery, Paulsboro Refinery, Toledo Refinery, Chalmette Refinery, Torrance Refinery and Martinez Refinery, with a combined throughput capacity of 1 million barrels per day and the ability to process a wide range of feedstocks. PBF carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present.

VLO’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesValero Energy’s shares have jumped 86.2% over the past year compared with the 38.2% improvement of the composite stocks belonging to the industry.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, VLO trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 8.59X. This is above the broader industry average of 5.73X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VLO’s 2026 earnings has remained unchanged over the past seven days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

VLO currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Key Takeaways Valero's refining network spans the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.Valero's complex Gulf Coast refining system and flexible operations support profitability amid volatility.Constrained refining capacity and low inventories are expected to support refining margins in the near term. Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) is a well-known name in the refining space, with an extensive refining network across the United States, Canada and the UK. The company is also involved in the production of renewable fuels and ethanol. Valero’s strongest investment case lies in its highly complex refining system concentrated along the U.S. Gulf Coast and the operational flexibility of its refineries, as these factors enable it to sustain profitability across volatile market conditions.

Geopolitical conditions worldwide have caused significant volatility in global oil markets since the beginning of this year. Following recent talks between the United States and Iran in Switzerland, efforts are underway to facilitate the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. While this marks a positive step toward stabilizing energy markets, the conflict has already caused severe damage to several energy facilities across the Middle East, including refineries and LNG infrastructure. The global refining market was already operating under tight conditions before the conflict, with demand growth outpacing new refining capacity additions. The disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict have further amplified this trend.

Against this macroeconomic backdrop, VLO remains well positioned to generate sustained profits, backed by a favorable refining environment. The company’s coastal refinery network enables it to benefit from export access and exposure to global product markets. Moreover, constrained global refining capacity and low product inventories in key markets are expected to support refining fundamentals and keep margins steady in the near-term. Its Gulf Coast refining network benefits from growing product exports to high-demand growth markets, enabling the company to capture attractive margins and support long-term earnings growth.

Refining Players Expects to Benefit From Favorable Refining FundamentalsPar Pacific Holdings (PARR - Free Report) is a Houston-based refining player with a combined refining capacity of 219,000 barrels per day and operations spread across Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest. The company also operates 76 branded fuel retail sites, along with a logistics business segment. PARR owns extensive energy infrastructure, including storage and transportation assets.

PBF Energy (PBF - Free Report) has a geographically diverse refining network with large-scale processing capacity and a highly complex refining system. It operates six refineries — Delaware City Refinery, Paulsboro Refinery, Toledo Refinery, Chalmette Refinery, Torrance Refinery and Martinez Refinery — with a combined throughput capacity of 1 million barrels per day and the ability to process a wide range of feedstocks.

VLO’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesValero Energy’s shares have jumped 78.1% over the past year compared with the 40.1% improvement of the composite stocks belonging to the industry.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, VLO trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 7.38X. This is above the broader industry average of 5.42X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VLO’s 2026 earnings hasn’t seen any revisions over the past seven days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

VLO, PARR and PBF each currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.