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2026-09-04 22:14 4d ago
2026-09-04 17:59 4d ago
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Peso rally targets April 2024 low
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
The Mexican Peso appreciates against the US Dollar, testing two-year highs near 16.85 as the USD/MXN sets aside a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which was ignored by the Peso’s bears. At the time of writing, the emerging market pair trades at 16.88, poised to extend its losses and challenge the April 2024 lows at 16.74.

USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical OutlookPrice action suggests that the downtrend is poised to extend, as USD/MXN approaches two-year lows. Bearish momentum continues to increase as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dives further into bearish territory.

The first support area is the 16.50-mile milestone. Below the latter, the next stop is May’s 2024 monthly low of 16.52, ahead of a test of the 2024 yearly low of 16.26. Once surpassed, the next area of interest will be the 16.00 figure.

For a bullish reversal, buyers must clear the 17.00 level to remain hopeful of reaching higher prices. Up next, the August 19 high of 17.07 emerges as the next resistance. A decisive breakout will expose the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1725, immediately followed by the 100-day SMA at 17.30. Above sits the 200-day SMA at 17.48.

USD/MXN Price Chart – Daily

USD/MXN daily chart Mexican Peso FAQs The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
2026-08-31 19:59 8d ago
2026-08-31 15:48 9d ago
Mexican Peso appreciates as USD/MXN dives on USD weakness
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
The Mexican Peso appreciates by about 0.20% against the US Dollar, even as risk appetite deteriorated amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which triggered a jump in energy prices. This exerted upward pressure on US bond yields on speculation that the Fed will raise rates. The USD/MXN trades at 16.99 after reaching a daily high of 17.04.

USD/MXN slips despite Iran escalation, Oil jump, Fed hike risksDevelopments during the overnight session pushed West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, past the $85.00 threshold, following strikes by the US and Iran. Sentiment soured on the news, but not in the FX space, with most traders punishing the Greenback, as per the US Dollar Index (DXY).

.The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.25%.

Last week, hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh weakened the Mexican currency, as USD/MXN rose 0.38%, closing at 17.03 on Friday. This increased bets that the US central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points at the September 16 meeting, according to Prime Terminal data.

The odds stand near 65% for a hike, a complete U-turn ahead of Warsh’s speech. Traders' eyes are set on a busy economic docket in the US. During the week, the release of ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs will provide an update on economic activity, while a tranche of US jobs data, led by Nonfarm Payrolls for August, could confirm whether the labour market remains solid.

In Mexico, developments surrounding the USMCA free trade agreement are crucial for the emerging-market currency, as talks are set to continue. Nevertheless, US President Donald Trump has remained reluctant to extend the free trade agreement, signed during his first administration.

In addition, Mexico's economic docket will feature the August Consumer Confidence on September 3.

USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook

USD/MXN daily chartIn the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 16.9994, keeping a bearish tone as spot holds beneath the medium-term descending trend line at 17.0838 and the clustered 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) around 17.3004. The failure to reclaim these overhead levels suggests the pair remains capped within a broader downtrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.8 stays below the midline, hinting at persistent but not extreme selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the medium-term downtrend line near 17.08, ahead of the broader SMA cluster around 17.30, which reinforces the prevailing bearish structure. A sustained move above these barriers would be needed to ease downside pressure, with the long-term descending trend line far higher near 18.12 marking a more distant cap on any recovery attempts.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
2026-08-24 22:27 15d ago
2026-08-24 18:18 15d ago
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Mexican Peso Pushes Dollar Below 16.95
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
Summary:

USD/MXN trades around 16.91, extending a decline that has pushed the pair to levels last seen in 2024. Mexico's headline inflation accelerated to 3.26% in the first half of August, although the reading was below market expectations. Core inflation eased slightly to 3.93%, keeping the outlook for Banco de México more complicated than the headline CPI increase suggests. The USD/MXN exchange rate extended its decline on Monday, pushing below 16.95 as the Mexican peso continued to outperform the US dollar despite fresh inflation data showing a modest pickup in Mexican price pressures. USD/MXN is trading around 16.91 at the time of writing, according to the latest daily chart. The pair has now fallen from around 17.60 in early July and is testing its lowest territory since 2024.

The peso’s resilience is particularly notable because Monday’s inflation report did not deliver an obvious bullish catalyst. Instead, the move reflects a broader combination of persistent US dollar weakness, relatively high Mexican interest rates and improving confidence in the peso. The question now is whether sellers can force USD/MXN decisively below 16.90 or whether an increasingly stretched downtrend is due for a correction.

Mexico Inflation Rises to 3.26%, But Misses Forecasts Mexico’s latest inflation figures provided a mixed signal for the Mexican peso outlook. Annual headline inflation accelerated to 3.26% during the first half of August, up from 3.10% a month earlier. Consumer prices increased 0.10% during the period. However, the headline figure came in below the roughly 3.30% economists had expected. More importantly for Banco de México, underlying inflation moved in the opposite direction.

Core inflation eased to 3.93% from 3.95%, compared with expectations for an increase to around 3.99%. That distinction matters. Headline inflation is moving higher, but the softer core reading provides little evidence of a sudden broad-based acceleration in underlying price pressures. At 3.26%, headline inflation also remains within Banxico’s target range of 3% plus or minus one percentage point. The numbers therefore did little to dramatically alter expectations for Mexican monetary policy.

Banxico’s 6.5% Rate Keeps the Peso Attractive Interest-rate differentials remain an important part of the USD/MXN forecast. Banco de México left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% earlier this month. Minutes from the meeting suggested policymakers could maintain the current rate for an extended period as they assess persistent inflation risks.

That relatively high yield continues to support the peso. Mexico’s economy has also held up better than some investors expected. Revised data released Monday showed GDP expanded 1.4% quarter over quarter in Q2, marking the strongest quarterly growth rate since early 2022. The economy grew 2.1% from a year earlier.

The combination of resilient growth and a relatively high policy rate gives investors fewer reasons to aggressively price near-term monetary easing. At the same time, the US dollar has struggled to regain sustained momentum, allowing USD/MXN sellers to remain firmly in control.

USD/MXN Technical Analysis: 16.90 Comes Under Pressure The daily chart paints a remarkably consistent bearish picture. USD/MXN has been forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since its July peak around 17.60. The decline accelerated during August, with the pair breaking below 17.20 and eventually losing the psychologically important 17.00 level.

Price is now sitting near 16.91.

Momentum indicators still favour sellers. The MACD remains below both its signal line and the zero level, confirming that the broader trend remains bearish.

There is, however, an important change taking place underneath the surface.The negative MACD histogram is becoming progressively smaller. That suggests bearish momentum is beginning to moderate even though the pair continues to make new lows. This creates an interesting setup around 16.90.

A clean daily break below 16.90 would reinforce the bearish structure and expose 16.80 as the next immediate target. Below there, the 2024 trading range suggests 16.60 could become increasingly relevant. For bulls, the first challenge is getting USD/MXN back above 17.00. A sustained recovery through that level could trigger a larger correction toward 17.10, followed by the stronger 17.20 to 17.30 resistance region.

USD/MXN Forecast: Can the Mexican Peso Keep Rising? The trend remains firmly in favour of the Mexican peso, but chasing USD/MXN lower is becoming progressively more difficult as the pair approaches levels not seen for roughly two years. The fundamental picture still provides support for the peso. Banxico’s policy rate remains relatively high, Mexican economic growth has proved resilient, and the US dollar has struggled to establish a sustained recovery.

Yet the latest inflation figures do not necessarily strengthen the case for another major leg higher in Mexican rates. Headline inflation rose, but core inflation actually moderated. That leaves 16.90 as the immediate battleground for USD/MXN.

A decisive break beneath this level could extend the selloff toward 16.80 and potentially 16.60. If 16.90 holds and the dollar begins recovering, a move back above 17.00 would be the first warning that the peso rally is entering a corrective phase. For now, the USD/MXN price forecast remains bearish while the pair stays below 17.00, but weakening downside momentum makes the current area increasingly important.

Why is USD/MXN falling?

USD/MXN has fallen as the Mexican peso benefits from relatively high Mexican interest rates and resilient economic data while the US dollar remains under pressure. The pair has dropped below 17.00 and is now testing its lowest levels since 2024.

What is Mexico’s inflation rate?

Mexico’s annual headline inflation increased to 3.26% in the first half of August 2026, while core inflation eased slightly to 3.93%. Headline inflation remains within Banco de México’s target range.

Will the Mexican peso continue to strengthen against the dollar?

The peso could extend its gains if USD/MXN breaks below 16.90 and US dollar weakness continues. However, the pair is approaching historically significant territory, while momentum indicators suggest selling pressure is beginning to moderate. That raises the possibility of a short-term USD/MXN rebound even if the broader trend remains bearish.
2026-08-13 20:00 26d ago
2026-08-13 15:40 27d ago
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Bears eye 17.00 as downtrend stretches
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
The USD/MXN extends its downtrend for the 14th straight day, down a minimal 0.08% as the Mexican Peso hovers near a 24-month low of 17.01 on Thursday. At the time of writing, the emerging-market currency pair trades below 17.05 as traders digest recent soft US inflation figures on the consumer and producer sides.

USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical OutlookAfter clearing the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) by the end of July, the USD/MXN accelerated its downtrend to yearly lows. Worth noting that the market structure of lower-highs and lower-lows is respected, and a breach below the 17.00 figure could open the door for further downside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the downtrend could be losing steam. Although USD/MXN drifts lower, the rate of change between sessions has narrowed, meaning that market participants remain reluctant to open fresh directional bets.

This could mean two things: first, that some consolidation lies ahead before the downtrend resumes to challenge the lower levels hit in 2024; or that USD/MXN could’ve found its floor and reversed course, aiming higher.

For the first scenario, if the USD/MXN clears below 17.00, this opens the path to challenge May’s 2024 monthly low of 16.52, followed by April’s 2024 low of the month at 16.26. Once those two levels are removed, the next support is at 16.00.

Conversely, if USD/MXN rises above the 50-day SMA at 17.38, followed by the 100-day SMA at 17.40, it could exacerbate a rally towards 17.50. On further strength, the next resistance is the 200-day SMA at 17.59.

USD/MXN Price Chart – Daily

USD/MXN daily chart Mexican Peso FAQs The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
2026-08-10 21:39 29d ago
2026-08-10 17:26 30d ago
Citi Mexico Survey sees Banxico hold, USD/MXN ending 2026 at 17.90
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
Citi Mexico released the Expectations Survey on Monday, in which the central bank polled 35 economists to gather their forecasts for monetary policy, the USD/MXN exchange Rate, inflation expectations, and economic growth.

Citi’s survey shows that the majority of the economists polled expect monetary policy to remain steady at 6.50%. Seven of those 35 expect the next movement to be a rate hike, and six expect a cut further ahead. The rest expect policy to remain steady.

The USD/MXN exchange rate is expected to end at 17.90 in 2026, unchanged. For 2027, the consensus suggests a depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN), with the exchange rate seen at 18.50, with expectations of trading within a range of 17.40-19.95.

Regarding inflation expectations for July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected at 3.13% YoY, down from 3.37% in the previous survey, while core CPI is seen at 3.94% YoY, lower than the previous survey's 4.03%.

For the medium term, CPI is projected to end at 4.02% YoY, down from 4.09%, while Core CPI, the component, is expected to drop from 4.10% to 4%.

The Mexican economy is projected to grow 1.2% in 2026, up from 1.1% in the last survey, while for 2027, the projections show the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ending at 1.8%, unchanged from the previous survey.

Mexican Peso FAQs The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
2026-07-30 21:29 1mo ago
2026-07-30 17:14 1mo ago
USD/MXN Forecast: How Long Does the Peso's Carry Trade Have Left to Run?
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
USD/MXN daily price chart showing a multi-year rising trendline off the 2024 low, EMA cluster near 17.45, and RSI bullish divergence. Source: TradingView The Fed reported at 2:00 p.m. ET on July 29, and although July’s interest rate was already priced in before the meeting, traders were keeping an eye out for forward guidance into September. Unfortunately, there was no guidance and the Fed maintained a steady hold on interest rates, although there were three dissenters in the meeting who called for an immediate hike in interest rates. This call, made by three out of twelve FOMC voting members, gave some hope for a more hawkish Fed going into September 2026.

A higher Federal Reserve interest rate could strengthen the U.S. dollar, closing some of the interest rate gap between the peso and the USD, which could help turn price action in favor of the USD/MXN bulls, stirring a reversal and sending price upwards.

For a bullish reversal to be confirmed, we would have to see a daily close above the 200 EMA line at around 17.80, which leaves room for price to continue up toward the next key resistance at 18.09. Failure to achieve this daily close will invalidate the near-term bullish thesis and strengthen the downward argument.

Although it is unlikely, if the Fed surprises the market and lowers interest rates before the September 15 – 16 meeting, the carry gap remains enticing for peso bulls, which will trigger more shorting of the USD/MXN pair. This scenario can see price testing the 2024 support trendline around 17.21, and a break + daily candle close below that level opens the floor for more downside.

That being said, the major practical risk for USD/MXN bulls heading into August 6 is that Banxico decides to hike interest rates.
2026-07-29 16:29 1mo ago
2026-07-29 12:17 1mo ago
USD/MXN Analysis: Mexican peso weakens ahead of the Fed decision
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
The Mexican peso is once again showing signs of short-term weakness. During today’s session, USD/MXN is up more than 0.5%, once again reflecting strength in the U.S. dollar.

For now, buying pressure remains in place as the market waits for the Federal Reserve decision and evaluates the possible dynamic between central banks. This is also being accompanied by doubts around new tariffs on Mexico, a factor that could also affect confidence in the Mexican peso. If the market confirms a more aggressive Fed and trade uncertainty remains in place, USD/MXN could continue to face a phase of indecision or even recovery over the next few trading sessions.

What is expected from the Fed? Today’s session will be marked by one of the most relevant events of the week: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. For now, the market assigns a probability close to 66% that the U.S. central bank will keep interest rates unchanged.

However, a probability close to 33% of a possible rate hike today has also started to gain relevance. This shows that the market is beginning to consider a potentially more aggressive Fed for the next monetary policy meetings.

In addition, just hours before the decision, there is still a probability above 56% that the central bank will raise rates at the September 16 meeting. For this reason, the Fed’s message will be key to determining whether expectations of higher rates in the United States gain strength over the coming months.

Source: CMEGROUP

For its part, the Bank of Mexico has not given clear signals that it could adopt a more aggressive stance in the coming months. In fact, Mexican monetary policy remains focused on avoiding relevant changes to interest rates, which makes sense given the recent moderation in inflation.

After reaching a 2026 high of 4.59% in March, annual inflation in Mexico fell to 3.37% in the June data. This reduction is important, as the rate remains close to the central bank’s 3.00% annual target and reduces pressure for Banxico to adopt a more restrictive stance.

Source: TradingEconomics

This scenario is relevant because the current 6.5% rate in Mexico remains attractive compared with other central banks and maintains an important differential against the 3.75% rate in the United States. However, if the Fed starts to show a more consistent possibility of new hikes, this differential could narrow and reduce the relative appeal of peso-denominated investments.

Therefore, if today’s decision confirms a more aggressive outlook from the Federal Reserve, dollar-denominated investments could gain greater appeal. This would limit the Mexican peso’s ability to recover and could maintain a phase of indecision or buying pressure in USD/MXN over the next few sessions.

Does the threat of new tariffs remain in place? For several sessions now, it has been known that the United States decided to apply an additional 10% tariff on Mexican products under Section 301. In principle, this measure applies to Mexican goods that are not covered by the USMCA trade agreement.

This event is relevant because Mexico maintains a high commercial dependence on the United States. By the end of 2025, nearly 80% of Mexican exports were directed to that country, meaning the impact of new tariffs could be more sensitive compared with other economies.

Although Mexico remains focused on strengthening negotiations to avoid additional tariffs or remove the ones already in place, no relevant progress has been seen yet suggesting that the U.S. government is willing to move away from these measures. This uncertainty could affect the perception of economic stability in Mexico over the coming months.

For this reason, if no positive updates emerge from negotiations, the appeal of peso-denominated investments could remain limited. This would add another pressure factor for USD/MXN, maintaining a possible phase of indecision over the next few trading sessions.

Technical forecast for USD/MXN

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Sideways range remains relevant: For several months, USD/MXN has continued to move within a broad long-term sideways range. Despite some movement attempts, neutrality remains the dominant feature on the chart. For now, this structure remains the most important technical reference. If price fails to move consistently away from neutral zones, the sideways range could continue to reflect a lack of direction over the next few trading sessions.
  RSI: At the moment, the RSI remains close to the neutral 50 level. This indicates a balance between buying and selling impulses in the average of the last 14 sessions. If the indicator continues to behave this way, neutrality could remain relevant on the daily chart.
  MACD: The MACD remains close to the neutral 0 line, suggesting balance in the strength of short-term moving averages. This reading also reinforces the possibility that USD/MXN could continue to show a neutral phase in the short term. Key levels:

17.67 – Main resistance: This recent high zone coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. Sustained movements toward this level could mark the beginning of a more consistent buying bias and open room for a possible short-term bullish trend line.
  17.41 – Current barrier: This relevant retracement level from recent weeks is also an important neutral zone and coincides with the 50-period simple moving average. If price fails to move away from this reference, the indecision phase could be reinforced and the sideways range could extend as the dominant structure.
  17.10 – Relevant support: This 2026 low zone remains the main bearish barrier for now. Movements toward this level could bring the selling bias back into focus and open room for a continuation of the descending channel that had remained the dominant structure in previous months.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25
2026-07-24 13:04 1mo ago
2026-07-24 08:56 1mo ago
USD/CHF, USD/CAD, and USD/MXN Forecasts – Rate Differentials Keep Dollar Buyers in Control
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
USD/MXN sits at 17.47988, drifting sideways within the shaded 17.50 zone. Source: TradingView The US dollar has drifted a little bit lower against the Mexican peso, and while the interest rates in America are fairly high by historical standards, traders still get paid to hold pesos, not dollars here. So, this, too, is following the interest rate differential path. The 50-day EMA is right at the 17.43 level, and of course, we’ve seen some sideways action between 17.35 and 17.60 over the last several weeks.

Looks like more of the same here. 17.50 seems to be a little bit of a magnet for price, but ultimately this is a market that’s just trying to figure out what to do longer term. This pair does get to be choppy for a while. This is part of the reason why these pairs attract so many inflows at times to use for that overall interest rate differential payment at the end of the day. Right now, though, there are so many questions involving the Middle East, the global economy, and everything else; it’s not a surprise that we’re somewhat stagnant.
2026-07-21 19:53 1mo ago
2026-07-21 15:41 1mo ago
USD/MXN Forecast: Mexican peso stays neutral as uncertainty persists
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
Although USD/MXN has declined more than 0.8% over the last few sessions, favoring the Mexican peso, the broader chart still does not show a clear direction. For now, the Mexican currency remains in an important neutral phase, in a context where the renewed threat of tariffs in North America and the lack of strong signals continue to limit confidence.

In this scenario, a phase of indecision could continue to be part of USD/MXN movements over the next few trading sessions, at least until relevant economic data is released.

Is the Mexican peso failing to stabilize confidence? Over the last few sessions, the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso has continued to be shaped by bond market dynamics. In both countries, yields have shown consistent increases, with Mexico’s 10-year bonds above 9.00% and U.S. 10-year bonds above 4.6%.

This differential still provides some relative appeal for peso-denominated investments, especially compared to dollar-denominated assets. This has been one of the reasons why the Mexican peso has not lost value consistently against the dollar in recent months. In addition, the difference between both central banks’ reference rates, with 6.5% in Mexico versus 3.75% in the United States, remains an important factor for the pair’s behavior.

Source: TradingEconomics

However, this relative appeal has not been enough to generate dominant strength in the Mexican peso. Part of this is explained by the moderation of inflation in Mexico, which has led the Bank of Mexico to maintain a more neutral tone in recent comments. For now, monetary policy appears focused on waiting and avoiding relevant short-term changes.

At this point, the dynamic could start to shift. While Banxico maintains a more neutral outlook, the Federal Reserve could still adopt a more aggressive tone over the coming months. According to the CME Group probability table, for the September 2026 decision, there is still a probability above 54% that the United States could deliver its first rate hike of the year, taking the rate toward a new area near 4.00%.

Source: CMEGROUP

This shift is relevant because a more aggressive Fed stance could reduce the rate differential that has favored Mexican bonds and, by extension, the Mexican peso for several months. At the same time, if dollar-denominated assets begin to offer higher yields, they could become more attractive than peso-denominated investments, which are usually perceived as riskier.

For this reason, the possibility of a more aggressive Fed continues to generate uncertainty and limits a clearer recovery in the peso. If Banxico’s comments continue to point to a neutral stance and the market maintains expectations of higher rates in the United States, the phase of indecision could remain relevant in USD/MXN over the coming weeks.

Could new tariffs have an impact? Recently, the possibility of renewed trade tensions in North America gained traction again after the United States signaled new tariffs on several Canadian products, with rates of up to 50% in the short term.

Although this event does not directly affect the Mexican economy, it does serve as a warning signal. In previous rounds of trade tension, both Canada and Mexico were exposed to tariff measures, and for now, there have been no major advances in negotiations related to the USMCA between Mexico and the United States.

This point is relevant because close to 80% of Mexican exports are directed to the United States. For this reason, any trade escalation that includes Mexico could quickly affect confidence in the Mexican peso, as has already happened during previous periods of tension. If more aggressive comments or measures against the Mexican economy emerge, USD/MXN could start to show more relevant buying pressure over the coming weeks.

Technical forecast for USD/MXN

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Sideways range continues to dominate: For several months, USD/MXN has continued to trade within a broad long-term sideways range. Despite price movement attempts, neutrality remains the dominant feature on the chart. For now, this range remains the most important technical structure to watch and could continue to reflect a lack of direction over the next few trading sessions.
  RSI: Now, the RSI line remains close to the neutral 50 level. This indicates a balance between buying and selling impulses in the market. This reading confirms that the phase of indecision remains relevant for short-term USD/MXN movements.
  TRIX: The TRIX line shows a similar dynamic, with movements close to the neutral 0 level. This reflects balance in the strength of long-term exponential moving averages. As long as this behavior continues, price neutrality could remain important over the next few sessions. Key levels:

17.71 – Main resistance: This recent high zone coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. Sustained movements toward this area could mark the beginning of a more consistent buying bias and open room for the possible formation of a bullish trend line over the coming weeks.
  17.39 – Current barrier: This relevant retracement level from recent weeks and important neutral zone coincides with the 50-period simple moving average. If price fails to move away from this level, the phase of indecision could be reinforced and the sideways range could extend over the medium term.
  17.10 – Relevant support: This area corresponds to the 2026 lows and remains the main bearish barrier for now. Moves toward this level could bring the selling bias back into focus and open the way for a continuation of the descending channel that had remained the dominant structure months ago.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25
2026-07-09 20:57 1mo ago
2026-07-09 16:47 2mo ago
USD/MXN Analysis: Can the peso hold after Mexico's inflation data?
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
The Mexican peso continues to face difficult trading sessions. Over the last 3 trading sessions, average USD/MXN movements have posted a gain of more than 1.00% in favor of the U.S. dollar, which continues to reflect weakness around the peso.

This scenario did not fully change after the release of Mexico’s inflation data, which showed a significant decline. This new reading could start to affect expectations for higher interest rates for longer, which in turn could limit the strength of the Mexican peso. In this context, USD/MXN could continue to show a phase of indecision or even more relevant buying pressure over the next few sessions.

Inflation day for Mexico During today’s session, Mexico’s annual average inflation data was released. Initially, the consensus expected a reading near 3.52%, but the official figure surprised to the downside and came in at 3.37%, below expectations and at its lowest level in the last 5 years.

This data is relevant because it marks a significant decline compared to previous months. It also confirms a downward trend in the consumer price index, which has been falling from this year’s high near 4.59%. With this new release, inflation is moving increasingly closer to the central bank’s target of around 3.00%.

Source: TradingEconomics

This scenario could be important for the Mexican peso’s movements, as one of its main advantages against the U.S. dollar has been the wide rate differential between both central banks. While the Bank of Mexico keeps its interest rate around 6.5%, the Federal Reserve maintains a benchmark rate near 3.75%.

For months, this differential has positioned the bond market and Mexican peso-denominated investments as potentially more attractive options compared to dollar-denominated investments. To some extent, this has helped sustain demand for the Mexican peso.

Source: TradingEconomics

However, the outlook could start to change. The latest inflation release marks an important shift in the price dynamic and could reduce the need for additional interest rate increases in Mexico. It could even gradually open room for rate cuts from the current 6.5% level over the coming months.

For this reason, the latest data could point to a calmer Bank of Mexico, with no need to deliver significant additional interest rate increases.

When comparing this potential dynamic with the Federal Reserve, the scenario is different. In the United States, inflation has not shown such significant declines, and CME Group’s probability table still points to a probability above 51.00% that, at the September 16 decision, the interest rate could move from the current 3.75% level toward a new 4.00% reference.

This suggests that the Federal Reserve could still maintain an aggressive stance over the coming months.

Source: CMEGROUP

This point is key because an important difference between both central banks is starting to emerge. While the market could begin to price in a calmer Banxico, the Federal Reserve remains close to a more aggressive scenario.

This combination could reduce the rate differential that has supported the Mexican peso over the last few months. For that reason, rather than strengthening the peso, the latest inflation data could suggest that, over time, peso-denominated investments may become less attractive compared to U.S. dollar-denominated investments.

If this central bank dynamic continues, the peso could struggle to recover ground consistently in the medium term. This could reflect not only a phase of indecision in USD/MXN, but also more relevant buying pressure over the coming trading weeks.

Technical outlook for USD/MXN

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Sideways range stronger than ever: Since February 2026, USD/MXN has not managed to define a clear direction or consolidate a more structured trend line. This has led to the formation of a relevant sideways range, with resistance near 17.92 and support around 17.10. As long as the pair fails to break out of these barriers, it will be difficult to confirm a firmer trend. For this reason, indecision could remain the dominant technical pattern over the coming trading weeks.
  RSI: movements do not show significant short-term strength and remain close to the neutral 50 area. This suggests a balance between buying and selling impulses in the market, reinforcing the importance of the current indecision phase.
  MACD: shows a similar reading, with the histogram remaining close to the 0 level. This reflects balance in the strength of short-term moving averages and confirms that indecision is still present in average USD/MXN movements. If this behavior persists, neutrality could remain relevant over the next few sessions. Key levels:

17.90 – Main resistance: This recent high zone remains the main bullish barrier above the 200-period simple moving average. Sustained moves toward this zone could mark the beginning of a more consistent buying bias and open room for the possible formation of a bullish trend line over the coming weeks.
  17.52 – Current barrier: This is a relevant retracement level from recent weeks and an important neutral zone to watch. If price fails to move away from this level, the indecision phase could be reinforced, and the sideways range could extend as the dominant chart structure in the medium term.
  17.10 – Relevant support: This zone corresponds to the 2026 lows and is currently the main bearish barrier. Moves toward this level could bring the selling bias back into focus and give continuity to the descending channel that remained the dominant structure months ago.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25
2026-07-07 11:57 2mo ago
2026-07-07 07:52 2mo ago
USD/MXN Forecast Note for the Week (7 July)
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
Summary:

The pair between the Peso and the Dollar (USD/MXN) is currently consolidating as traders await further triggers from the macroeconomic front. Current Setup and Live Chart The USD/MXN pair is currently trading in a consolidation between 17.1016 and 17.6417, with the former acting as the price floor and the latter acting as the ceiling. This consolidation comes as traders juggle between U.S. interest rate expectations, global risk sentiment, and Mexico’s relatively high interest rates. 

The pair has seen the recent uptick rejected at the price ceiling following the relatively dovish comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Sintra Central Banking Forum. While these comments and the downbeat NFP data have not heavily dented the U.S. dollar’s recent strength, they have contributed to the counterbalance between the U.S. Dollar and the Mexican Peso.

Macro Drivers of the USD/MXN 1) Interest Rate Differentials

The Mexican Peso has one of the highest real interest rates among emerging market currencies. This has led to carry trades between the USD and the Mexican Peso. Now that the Fed has indicated it will adopt a cautious stance to interest rate adjustments, interest rate expectations in the U.S. have been repriced lower. The high interest-rate differential between the two currencies continues to promote foreign bond investments, carry-trade strategies, and Peso-leaning institutional capital flows.

2) Oil Prices

The Peso is a commodity currency that has a positive correlation to oil prices. During the oil price shock, the Peso gained sharply against the U.S. dollar despite safe-haven flows into the dollar. The Peso remained stable and maintained a strong 25% gain from February 2025 to date against the greenback.

3) Fed Rate Expectations

Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy continue to be a key driver for the pair’s price movements. Now that the Fed is shifting to a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, U.S. data will become important drivers of price movements in the USD/MXN pair. The pair is expected to remain sensitive to the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. Declining yields will encourage demand for the higher-yielding Peso, while rising U.S. bond yields will shift focus towards the USD.

4) Nearshoring

Mexico continues to benefit from the nearshoring trend. Nearshoring is the process by which investments shift to countries with lower production costs. Mexico has relatively lower production costs for companies in the United States, as wages are lower and the operating environment has a lower cost of moving than the United States. This nearshoring investment potential continues to support foreign direct investment into the Mexican market, which requires foreign capital denominated in U.S. dollars to be converted into the local Peso. This also boosts Mexico’s industrial production, export growth potential, and employment, all of which together provide confidence in Mexico’s economic outlook. 

Price Catalysts (Near Term) 1) U.S. economic data: U.S. data, especially those around employment, labor market conditions and inflation, look set to assume greater importance now that the Fed is shifting towards a data-dependent approach to monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected US data are supportive of USD/MXN. In contrast, downbeat data will limit near-term recovery potential, as the pair is now in a consolidation phase following a 16-month downtrend.

2) Global risk sentiment: The USD/MXN is a pair that is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. The greenback benefits from risk aversion, while the Peso thrives when investor appetite for risk is high.

3) Mexican inflation and central bank expectations: the market will keep watch over Mexico’s data, especially those around inflation and Banxico’s rate policy. Higher domestic inflation will support the Peso, as it increases the risk of a rate hike from the Mexican central bank.

USD/MXN Weekly Forecast Scenarios Base case: neutral to bearish, as the interest rate differential and the dovish shift of the Fed should allow for a further retracement from the range top, even as a resilient USD prevents a downside continuation.

Bull case: stronger-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data and rising U.S. bond yields. Furthermore, any conditions that lead to a deterioration in global risk sentiment can trigger a safe-haven flight to the U.S. Dollar, drawing capital away from emerging-market currencies. In this situation, the pair will break out of the consolidation and aim for the 18.15-18.60 price range. 

Bear case: softer-than-expected U.S. inflation, global risk-on sentiment, strong Mexican data (especially local inflation), and falling U.S. bond yields will trigger the bear case scenario. Add in the carry trade dynamics, and we could see a continuation of the downward trend in place since February 2025. A move toward 16.60 cannot be ruled out under this scenario.

USD/MXN Technical Outlook The pair is trading within a consolidation. 17.1016 is the range floor, and 17.6473 is the range ceiling. Currently, price is retracing after rejection at the range ceiling. The range’s floor is next in line, and if the bears succeed in eroding this support, a continuation of the downtrend towards 16.6272 (the 28 July 2023 and 17 May 2024 lows) could be on the cards.

Fig 1: USD/MXN daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 7 July 2026) On the flip side, recovery in the pair follows an uncapping of the 17.6473 range ceiling. This move lines up the 18.1547 high of 18 April 2024 with the 31 March 2026 high as the next upside target. A further upside extension brings in 18.6053 as the next target in line for the bulls.
2026-07-07 07:27 2mo ago
2026-07-07 01:30 2mo ago
USD/MXN Forecast: JP Morgan Says Stay Bullish on the Mexican Peso
USDMXN USD/MXN
FMP Forex News
Original source text
The Mexican Peso remains one of JP Morgan's preferred emerging-market currencies, with the bank arguing that improving domestic growth, attractive carry and resilient trade flows continue to support MXN.

USD/MXN is forecast to ease from current levels, with JP Morgan targeting 17.35 by September 2026, 17.30 by December, 17.30 by March 2027 and 17.30 by June 2027.

JP Morgan analysts say Mexico's economic outlook has improved after a weak start to the year.

"Some green shoots point to a more benign picture for growth in 2H26."

The bank notes that stronger-than-expected April GDP, a rebound in construction activity and robust services growth have prompted it to lift its 2026 GDP forecast from 1.0% to 1.2%.

JP Morgan also expects Banxico to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% over the coming year as inflation remains comfortably within target.

The bank believes the successful conclusion of the latest USMCA review also removes an important source of uncertainty for investors.

Rather than reopening the agreement, the US, Canada and Mexico agreed to continue negotiations under the existing framework, preserving Mexico's privileged access to US markets.

Carry Trade Still Supports the Peso

JP Morgan argues the Peso's biggest strength remains its attractive yield.

"The structural view for MXN remains constructive, anchored by decent volatility-adjusted carry."

With market volatility easing after the Middle East conflict and Mexico's balance of payments remaining resilient, the bank believes the Peso should continue attracting international capital.