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Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices. Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, October 26 at 8:30am ET Event risk this week: US, Eurozone & UK PMI data Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open. The assets are chaptered on the recording for your convenience.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Notes: Sterling broke the October opening range last week with the rally extending nearly 1.8% off the monthly lows. The bulls have now defended critical support for a seventh time this month at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the 2026 low-week close at 1.3194. The breakout exhausted into the close last week near the 38.2% retracement of the August decline at 1.3343 – this level now defines the weekly opening range high.

Initial support rests with the May low at 1.3302 and is backed by near-term bullish invalidation at the 23.6% retracement / October open at 1.3264. Losses below this threshold would be needed to invalidate the recent breakout with key support unchanged at 1.3194.

A topside breach of the weekly range would be needed to mark resumption of the near-term uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 50% retracement at 1.3406 backed by the 200-day moving average (~1.3433), and the February low day close / yearly open at 1.3465/74.

Bottom line: A breakout of the monthly range keeps the focus on a possible exhaustion high into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3264 IF sterling is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / daily close above 1.3343 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

GBP/USD event risk centers on the U.K. labor-market report Tuesday and September CPI on Wednesday, with the inflation release carrying the greater weight as markets reassess expectations for the Bank of England’s November meeting. A firmer wage or inflation reading would reinforce the case for tighter policy and support sterling, while another downside surprise could revive rate-cut expectations and weigh on the pound. U.S. housing data and preliminary October PMIs are also due, but the Federal Reserve is now in its blackout period ahead of the October 27–28 decision, leaving incoming data to drive the dollar side of the pair.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: USD/CAD broke below the October range lows last week with the decline extending 1.6% off the yearly / monthly high. Price is trading into support today at the 38.2% retracement of the August advance at 1.4083. A proposed descending pitchfork off the highs may be in play here but it’s too early to rely on just yet.

Initial resistance is eyed a the weekly open and November high at 1.4041 with key resistance steady at the June high week close / high day close (HWC/HDC) at 1.4194-1.4202. Note that this level converges on the 75% parallel over the next few days and a break / close above would be needed to invalidate this near-term downtrend. Critical resistance remains unchanged at the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 decline at 1.4292.

A break / close below Fibonacci support is needed to mark downtrend resumption towards the July low day close (LDC) and the 50% retracement at 1.4011/16- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/CAD has broken a multi-week range, and the outlook remains tilted to the downside into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 1.42-handle IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a break / daily close below 1.4083 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

USD/CAD event risk is front-loaded this week after Canada’s softer-than-expected September CPI report reduced expectations for a Bank of Canada hike at next week’s meeting. Although headline inflation edged up to 3.1%, the underlying measures cooled to a six-year low, suggesting that the increase was largely energy-driven rather than evidence of broadening price pressure. With no major Canadian releases remaining, the focus shifts to Friday’s preliminary October US PMIs. Firmer U.S. data could offer some support to USD/CAD by keeping Treasury yields elevated, while softer figures would reinforce the market’s dovish Fed expectations and leave the pair vulnerable to a deeper pullback. Watch the weekly close for guidance here.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: USD/CHF reversed off major resistance last week at the 2024 swing low and the 1.618% extension of the August advance near 8375/87. The decline has now broken below the late-August uptrend (red) and extended more than 2.1% off the monthly / yearly high with price turning just ahead of key support last week at 8200/14- a region defined by the 100% extension of the late-January rally, the July high, and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline.

The focus is on this near-term recovery with initial resistance now in view at the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline near 8286. Near-term bearish invalidation is eyed at the upper parallel which converges on the 61.8% retracement at 8328.

A break below the 82-handle would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place, and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support rests with the September opening range highs at 8157 backed by the August high close and the November high at 8125.

Bottom line: USD/CHF has rebounded just ahead of key support after breaking multi-week uptrend. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 8327 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 8200 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price. Event risk is limited out of Switzerland this week, so look for the US Dollar to drive price action this week.

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The USD/CHF pair attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day on Friday, extending this week's retracement slide from the 0.8400 neighborhood, or the highest since May 2025. The downward trajectory drags spot prices below mid-0.8200s, or a two-week low during the first half of the European session, and is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

Despite hot US inflation figures, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates unchanged at the next policy meeting, later this month. Expectations were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's neutral remarks earlier today, which, along with the recent sharp decline in US bond yields, dragged the USD to a one-and-a-half-week low and exerted some downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair.

Market participants, however, are still pricing in over a 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting amid inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz could limit USD losses and support the USD/CHF pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to conquer the 0.8400 mark and the subsequent corrective slide warrant some caution for bullish traders. Spot prices, however, hold marginally above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, at 0.8235, which offers initial trend support, while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8230 could act as a key pivotal point for the USD/CHF pair.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators remain weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 34 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero with a negative histogram. This suggests that selling pressure still dominates despite the nearby moving-average floor, though a sustained break and acceptance below the 0.8235-0.8230 confluence is needed to back the case for further losses.

The USD/CHF pair might then fall to a lower structural cushion at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near 0.8223, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline. On the topside, a recovery would need to overcome the 23.6% retracement at 0.8289 to ease bearish pressure and open the way for a more meaningful corrective bounce.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels
USD/CHF remains broadly constructive after extending the advance from the August low, but the recent reversal has damaged the near-term trend structure.
The first rebound from last week’s selloff is now testing former uptrend support as resistance, putting the focus on whether buyers can reclaim the broken slope.
A sustained break above near-term resistance would shift the focus back toward the October highs and revive the broader bullish continuation scenario.
Failure to reclaim resistance would keep the risk tilted toward a deeper correction within the larger advance.
Resistance 83450/58, 8375/87 (key), 8416/30- Support 8289, 8259 (key), 8200/15
USD/CHF is attempting to mark a seventh consecutive weekly advance, but the near-term technical picture has become more complicated after last week’s break of the September uptrend. The initial rebound from the selloff is now pressing former trend support as resistance, creating an important inflection point for the recovery. A successful reclaim would refocus attention on the October highs and strengthen the case for broader uptrend resumption, while another rejection would leave the pair vulnerable to a deeper correction. With the economic calendar relatively light into Friday, shifts in Treasury yields and Fed expectations may provide the next catalyst ahead of next week’s key U.S. inflation data.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF had rallied into resistance at five-week highs and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8069 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8152 needed to fuel another run at the yearly highs. Look for another meaningful reaction on a test of the 82-handle for guidance IF reached.” USD/CHF briefly registered an intraday low at 8052 the following day before reversing higher with a breakout of the September opening range fueling a 4.1% rally off the monthly low.

The advance extended more than 5.4% off the August low before marking an outside day reversal off confluent resistance into the October open at 8375/87. This region is defined by the 2024 swing low and the 1.618% extension of the August rally and converges on the upper parallel of a multi-month pitchfork extending off the January / August lows. The monthly opening range has now taken shape just below and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold.  

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF breaking below the lower parallel of the September uptrend last week with former support serving as resistance for the past few days. Price is now approaching initial resistance at the 78.6% retracement of the most recent decline and the objective monthly open at 8350/58. Note that the lower parallel converges on this zone tomorrow and a break / close above this slope would shift the focus back towards key resistance at 8375/87. Ultimately, the bulls will need to clear this zone to mark uptrend resumption toward the next major technical consideration at the 2024 yearly open and the 2024 low-day close (LDC) at 8416/30.

Weekly open support rests at 8289 and is backed by the 100% extension at 8259. Basic trendline support extending off the August low (red) converges on this level next week and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support rests with the 100% extension of the January advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 8200/15. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

   
       

Bottom line: USD/CHF has broken a multi-week uptrend after reversing off key resistance into the start of the month. The risk remains for a deeper correction within the confines of the broader uptrend. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 8358 IF price is heading lower on this stretch – look for a larger reaction on a test of the August uptrend near 8259 with a breach / close above 8387 ultimately needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.

Event risk remains relatively light for USD/CHF in the days ahead, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on tap Friday. While the survey may have a limited market impact, any meaningful shift in consumer expectations could influence the dollar through Treasury yields and near-term Fed pricing. The focus then turns to next week’s key inflation data, which should provide a more significant test for the U.S. monetary-policy outlook and help shape the next directional move in USD/CHF. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Selloff Nears Critical Yearly Support
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Selloff Breaks June Uptrend
Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Six-Day Rally Challenges Pivotal Resistance
Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Reversal Tests Key Uptrend Support
Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Fight to Stabilize at Pivotal Support
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakdown Faces Major Test Ahead of Fed, BoJ
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Selloff Accelerates Toward August Lows Ahead of NFP
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The Swiss franc surged against every FX major on Thursday as bond markets came under renewed pressure and volatility spiked. With USD/CHF reversing from upper channel resistance, broad CHF strength and signs of a carry-trade unwind could now favour a deeper pullback.

View related analysis:

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Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY Setups
US Dollar Bulls Return as Euro and Pound Shorts Build | COT Report
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds 70c Ahead of RBA and CPI

Swiss Franc Surges as USD/CHF Reverses from Channel Resistance
Global bond markets took another beating on Thursday, with sovereign yields surging to multi-decade highs as investors grappled with persistent inflation, rising energy prices and the prospect of interest rates remaining higher for longer.

US Treasuries were at the centre of Thursday’s turmoil, with yields surging across the curve and the 20- and 30-year pushing above 5.6%, while a sharp rebound in spreads pointed to renewed curve steepening. The MOVE index jumped above 108 as bond volatility spiked, yet the US dollar also strengthened as DXY broke above 101.5. Which appears to be more like a violent repricing of rates than a conventional risk-off move.

The reaction across traditional safe-havens was also far from uniform. Gold was relatively subdued and the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar, while the Swiss franc surged against every FX major.

Swiss Franc Strength Broadens Across FX Majors
That divergence makes the franc’s move particularly interesting, with the rally appearing to reflect an unwind of CHF-funded carry trades as volatility picked up and traders reduced risk, rather than purely safe-haven demand.

The fact that Swiss franc strength was broad-based on Thursday also strengthens the case for a pullback in USD/CHF. In particular, the franc surged 1.3% against the euro and 1% against both the British pound and New Zealand dollar. It even rose 0.85% against its fellow safe-haven, the Japanese yen.

Looking across the FX majors, several CHF crosses are also forming double bottoms or higher lows on the daily chart, which could point to a broader period of Swiss franc strength.

Source: ICE, TradingView

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Swiss Franc
The anticipated rally I flagged last week from the July high area has worked out well. Price action on USD/CHF has been more akin to a stock market than a currency market of late, though with prices respecting the upper channel line with a bearish engulfing candle and overbought RSI, perhaps it is time for a pullback.

Also note that USD/CHF is on track for a weekly shooting star if it were to close around current levels, though we do have a full day’s trade and an NFP report to get through. Yet the weekly RSI (14) is not overbought and continues to confirm the trend higher. USD/CHF may therefore remain favoured by dip buyers, assuming a pullback materialises.

Note that the monthly pivot point around 0.8250 sits near the 16 September high, making it a potential support area for bulls or target for bears.

Source: ICE, TradingView

The USD/CHF exchange rate continued its recent upward trend, reaching its highest level since June last year as the spread between the US and Swiss interest rates continues to widen. It jumped to 0.8262, up by over 8.7% from its lowest level this year.

The USD/CHF pair will be in the spotlight this week as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivers its interest rate decision on Thursday. Economists expect the bank to maintain interest rates at 0% in this meeting. 

This decision comes at a time when the Swiss economy is seeing modest inflation. A report showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.80% in August from 0.40% in July.

Swiss inflation is expected to continue rising because of the ongoing energy shock in the region. For example, diesel prices in the country have jumped to a record high of CHF 2.41, and the surge is continuing. Petrol prices have also continued rising this month because of the ongoing US-Iran war. 

Still, the SNB will likely maintain interest rates unchanged so that it can devalue its currency. As a net exporter, the central bank tends to prefer a weaker Swiss franc, since this makes its products relatively cheaper. 

The USD/CHF pair has also remained in an uptrend because of the relatively stronger US dollar. The greenback jumped after the Federal Reserve delivered its interest rate decision.

As was widely expected, Kevin Warsh and the team decided to hike interest rates by 0.25% to between 3.75% and 4%. Most importantly, officials signaled that they will continue hiking this year to combat the elevated inflation.

Traders on Polymarket and other prediction marketplaces suggest that the bank will hike either in its October or its December meeting. If this happens, it will bring rates to between 4% and 4.25%.

These actions have a major impact on the USD/CHF pair since the spread between the US and Switzerland will continue widening. This makes it one of the most popular pairs among carry trade investors.

A carry trade is a situation in which investors borrow money from a low-interest-rate currency and then invests in a high-rate one. This pair has become popular now that the US and Japan are hiking interest rates.

USD/CHF chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/CHF pair has been in a strong bull run in the past few months from a low of 0.7600 in February to a high of 0.8262. It formed an ascending channel and recently moved below its upper side. 

The pair is attempting to retest the crucial support level of 0.8207, its highest level on July 29. It remains above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level of 0.8350. This view will be confirmed if it moves above the upper side of the channel at 0.8300.

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 1h chart, U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc is interacting with the 0.786 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price is breaking this Resistance Arc, suggesting the potential for a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc.

Metric

Reading

 Market Bias

Bullish

 Preferred Scenario

Advance Toward the Next Resistance Arc

 Primary Target Zone

0.8151

 Scenario Invalidation

Sustained close below 0.8066

 Current Arc Level

Resistance Arc (0.786)

 Cycle Status

Testing Resistance Arc

 Arc Integrity

Weakening

Market OutlookPrice is testing the 0.786 Resistance Arc, where continued buying pressure could result in a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc. A sustained breakout above the Resistance Arc would support continued movement toward the next Resistance Arc at 0.8151 (1 Arc / 100%).

Conversely, failure to achieve a sustained 1h close above the Resistance Arc would invalidate the bullish scenario and could shift the outlook toward the next Support Arc.

The USD/CHF registers modest gains of over 0.30% as the Greenback is boosted by a solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report, pushing the pair above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to reach a daily high of 0.8126. At the time of writing, trades at 0.8098.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe USD/CHF trades just above the 50-day SMA but off daily highs, suggesting sellers have moved in to push the pair below 0.8100. Nevertheless, the overall trend remains upwards unless it falls below the August 20 swing low of 0.7949, which could exacerbate a move towards the 200-day SMA at 0.7932.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned bullish, but since it has pierced the 50-neutral level, USD/CHF is expected to trade sideways in the short term.

For a bullish resumption, USD/CHF needs to clear 0.8100. A move past that level can pave the way for a recovery towards 0.8150, with buyers setting their sights on 0.8200. Above the next area of interest is the yearly high at 0.8207.

On the downside, a decisive breakout below 0.8000 will expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7995, followed by the 0.7949 August 20 daily low. Beneath sits the 200-day SMA at 0.7932.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Mexican Peso FAQs The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The USD/CHF tumbles nearly 0.80% on Thursday as the Greenback weakens on rumours of a potential intervention in the FX markets to boost the Japanese Yen. Consequently, the pair fell from around daily highs of 0.8131, extending its losses to the current exchange rate near 0.8065.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/CHF tumbled below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8090, but so far is retaining its upward bias, as the pair is above a previously broken resistance trendline, turned support. Also, the 100- and 200-day SMAs remain below the current exchange rate, meaning that in the medium and long term, the overall trend remains up.

Nevertheless, momentum shifted in the near-term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, an indication that sellers are in charge. Hence, in the short term, further downside is seen, unless buyers reclaim key technical resistance areas.

On the downside, the first support for USD/CHF is the July 30 low of 0.8039. Below lies 0.8000, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7992 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7934.

On the other hand, if USD/CHF reclaims 0.8100, the next resistance is the September 2 high at 0.8156, before traders test 0.8200.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.39%-0.39%-1.99%-0.40%-0.51%-0.53%-0.75%EUR0.39%-0.00%-1.63%-0.06%-0.11%-0.20%-0.37%GBP0.39%0.00%-1.62%-0.05%-0.11%-0.18%-0.37%JPY1.99%1.63%1.62%1.62%1.52%1.45%1.27%CAD0.40%0.06%0.05%-1.62%-0.11%-0.17%-0.35%AUD0.51%0.11%0.11%-1.52%0.11%-0.06%-0.26%NZD0.53%0.20%0.18%-1.45%0.17%0.06%-0.15%CHF0.75%0.37%0.37%-1.27%0.35%0.26%0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

The USD/CHF pair advances some 0.13% on Wednesday as the Greenback holds within familiar levels, after depreciating versus the Japanese Yen amid speculation of an intervention in the FX markets. This dragged the pair from around five-week highs to the 0.8120 area.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical OutlookPrice action shows USD/CHF is poised to trade sideways after bouncing off a two-month low of 0.7949 on August 20, to current exchange rate levels. From a market structure perspective, the pair is on a corrective leg before extending the downtrend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bullish, aiming higher and hinting at further upside.

For a bullish continuation, USD/CHF must clear the high of the day at 0.8156 ahead of challenging 0.8200. A decisive breakout will expose the current year high at 0.8207, followed by the psychological 0.8250 ahead of 0.8300.

On the other hand, if USD/CHF retreats to 0.8100, it opens the door for another lower leg. Below is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8091, followed by the July 30 swing low of 0.8039. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 100-day SMA at 0.7990.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.04%0.20%-0.94%-0.37%-0.36%0.70%0.15%EUR-0.04%0.16%-0.97%-0.41%-0.39%0.65%0.11%GBP-0.20%-0.16%-1.11%-0.57%-0.56%0.44%-0.05%JPY0.94%0.97%1.11%0.56%0.57%1.63%1.08%CAD0.37%0.41%0.57%-0.56%0.01%1.06%0.53%AUD0.36%0.39%0.56%-0.57%-0.01%1.02%0.53%NZD-0.70%-0.65%-0.44%-1.63%-1.06%-1.02%-0.54%CHF-0.15%-0.11%0.05%-1.08%-0.53%-0.53%0.54% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

$1.15917

+0.01%

EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF approach key technical levels as traders track US yields and prepare for Friday’s potentially market-moving jobs data.

In this article:EUR/USD

+0.01%

EUR/USD ForecastUSD/CAD

-0.12%

USD/CAD ForecastUSD/CHF

+0.15%

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD price chart displaying trading near 1.15811 with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.780%. Source: TradingView The euro has been pretty negative in the early part of the session, but we are starting to turn things around a little bit here as we head into the US session. With this, I think we have to look at this as a market that may try to recover a little bit.

With interest rates in America drifting lower, I’m still going to watch the 1.16 level. I think that’s an area that could end up being a little bit of a barrier. I still prefer the US dollar over the euro. A nice bounce here, signs of exhaustion, would be a classic continuation play.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD price chart with the 50-period EMA at 1.38975 and 200-period EMA at 1.38748. Source: TradingView The US dollar has been strong against the Canadian dollar, and I think that probably continues. So, I’ll be watching the 1.3910 level for a potential bounce that I can take advantage of.

In this environment, the trade war between the United States and America continues to be a major factor. Plus, we have to keep in mind that both of these countries release their jobs numbers on Friday, so we could get a little bit of a wiggle here. I plan on taking advantage of it.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis USD/CHF price chart showing the 200-period EMA at 0.80766 and Fibonacci retracement levels. Source: TradingView In the US dollar against the Swiss franc pair, this has been a long-term holding of mine for some time. I think we have a situation here where traders will continue to look at this as a buy-on-the-dip scenario right around 0.8120 and 0.81. Both areas I’m looking to buy some type of bounce if I get the opportunity. The 0.8160 level above is short-term resistance that, if broken, could get a bit of FOMO trading in this pair for short-term traders to join the trend.

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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

Latest news and analysis

Treasury intervention raises questions over dollar haven status
Swiss franc outperforms as safe-haven demand builds
Switzerland’s balance sheet reinforces haven case
USD/CHF technicals favour bearish bias
Swiss franc’s haven credentials strengthened
The Swiss franc’s credentials as the last true bastion of safe-haven status in the FX universe have been reinforced by events this week.

On Wednesday, the franc was the best-performing G10 currency by some distance following the US Treasury’s announcement that it would double the size of long-dated Treasury buybacks.

While USD/CHF bounced modestly on Thursday as we saw a retracement in the move in long-end Treasury yields, the broader message is pretty obvious. If policymakers in the US are becoming more willing to actively combat market forces when it doesn’t politically suit, the franc stands out as the one true developed-market currency haven given its fundamental strength.

Looking at the charts, the question is whether more interventionist policies like these could provide the catalyst for a broader resumption of the bearish USD/CHF trend seen over recent decades.

Treasury intervention risks grow
This week’s developments suggest tinkering at the long end of the Treasury curve by Treasury may evolve into something far more significant, potentially the tsunami of interventionist activity I described in a separate analysis piece yesterday.

After announcing that long-dated Treasury buybacks would be doubled to at least $4 billion per operation a day earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went further on Thursday, saying purchases could be increased beyond that level.

More importantly, Bessent was explicit that part of the objective was signalling that long-bond yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals. That is an extraordinary statement given the US fiscal position. It effectively amounts to Bessent saying he knows better than the market and is prepared to actively combat bearish forces when yields move to levels the government finds politically or fiscally uncomfortable.

Given the market reaction to the statement was to sell the long end, what was pitched as an operation to improve liquidity risks becoming something far more consequential for the US dollar. If Treasury is seen to be developing a broader suite of measures designed to push long-dated yields lower whenever market forces drive them higher, it risks eroding confidence in the dollar’s safe-haven credentials.

With US government debt already enormous and the cost of servicing it rising rapidly, the incentive to keep long-term borrowing costs contained is obvious.

Haven flows take over
Given the risk of more interventionist policies being used to artificially suppress bond yields, it is only natural that the investment community would seek out alternatives to the US dollar. Based on what we saw earlier this week, the Swiss franc was clearly among them.

Looking at the correlation matrix below, the five-day window suggests what had been a modestly positive relationship between USD/CHF, yield differentials and US Treasury yield movements has abruptly shifted over the past week.

Source: TradingView, FOREX.com

Instead, USD/CHF has maintained a strong inverse relationship with other safe havens such as gold, while its relationship with volatility measures such as VIX futures has strengthened sharply. That points to a market increasingly trading the pair through the lens of safe-haven demand rather than relative rates alone.

You could argue that the initial reaction suggests the franc could be a significant beneficiary if the dollar debasement narrative heard earlier this year, and through parts of 2025, begins to manifest itself again.

Fundamentals back the franc
The Swiss franc’s appeal is not just about reputation. The country’s underlying finances are simply a lot stronger than those of the US.

Switzerland is a major net creditor to the rest of the world, with its net international investment position sitting at around 111% of GDP in 2025. In simple terms, the Swiss own far more assets overseas than foreigners own in Switzerland.

Source: FRED, SNB, SECO, FOREX.com

The US is the complete opposite, with a net international investment position of roughly -71% of GDP. So while the dollar has the benefit of being the world’s reserve currency, the US still relies heavily on foreign investors to fund its debt. Countries such as Switzerland, with large pools of savings and overseas assets, are effectively on the other side of that trade.

Source: FRED, FOREX.com

The government debt numbers tell a similar story. Central government debt in Switzerland stood at just 22.3% of GDP in 2024, compared with 115.8% in the US.

That divide is key in the safe haven debate. Switzerland has low government debt, an extremely strong international investment position and the kind of savings base that naturally supports lower borrowing costs. Relative to the States, it’s like chalk and cheese.

USD/CHF bearish bias remains

Source: TradingView

You can clearly see the reaction to Treasury’s announcement on Wednesday with a mammoth bearish bar breaking the minor uptrend that had been in place since early July, along with horizontal support at 0.8013.

The move stalled just shy of uptrend support running from the January low before reversing on Thursday, reclaiming the 100-day moving average in the process before moving back towards former support at 0.8013.

Despite the recovery, until proven otherwise, the rebound looks something akin to a dead-cat bounce.

0.8013 is the immediate focal point overhead. If the price remains beneath that level, it could be used to initiate fresh shorts with a stop above for protection, targeting a retest of 0.7950, where the pair reversed from on Thursday.

Just beneath that sits the January uptrend, along with the key 200-day moving average and horizontal support at 0.7925, making the area from the uptrend down to 0.7925 the key support zone to watch underneath where the pair trades.

If we were to see a sustained break beneath the lower end of that zone, it could open the path for a much more pronounced bearish unwind, putting levels such as 0.7796 and 0.7750 in play initially.

Of course, if the pair were to extend its rebound back above 0.8013 and hold there, the option is there to initiate longs with a tight stop beneath 0.8013 for protection. Initial targets would be 0.8050, where the price bounced on numerous occasions over recent months prior to the breakdown, followed by former uptrend support around 0.8065 today.

The message from the oscillators favours selling into strength rather than buying dips. RSI (14) continues to set lower highs and lower lows and sits beneath the neutral 50 level at 39. That message is confirmed by MACD, which has crossed beneath its signal line, flipped negative and continues to trend lower.

Given the fundamental backdrop and technical picture, shorts are favoured over longs in the near term.

The USD/CHF pair tumbles nearly 2% on Wednesday as a US Treasury buyback announcement sends the Greenback into a tailspin, while US Treasury yields also dive. The pair trades at 0.7979 after reaching a high of 0.8128.

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF is upward-biased after it bottomed at 0.7604 in late January 2026. Since then, the pair has rallied towards a yearly high above 0.8200, before the US Treasury unveiled its bond buyback. This pushed USD/CHF below key support levels, including the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8084, and towards the 100-day SMA at 0.7975.

In the short term, momentum shifted bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from around 51 to 36.48. This suggests that sellers are gaining steam.

For a bearish continuation, USD/CHF must clear the 100-day SMA, followed by the 200-day SMA, at 0.7932. On further weakness, the next stop is 0.7900.

On the flip side, buyers must reclaim the 0.8000 level before challenging the March 31 high of 0.8042. Above lies the 50-day SMA at 0.8084, followed by the August 13 high of 0.8147.

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

USD/CHF rebounds on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) recovers from its early losses. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8112 after touching an intraday low of 0.8072, its lowest level in over a week.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.60 after recovering from 99.30, its lowest level since June 5.

Analysts at MUFG/BTMU point out that the Dollar index “has not yet tested support from the 200-day moving average, which comes in at around 99.20,” underscoring that the broader gauge of Dollar strength is still trading above a key technical level. At the same time, they note that “the run of softer US economic data has encouraged market participants to scale back Fed rate hike expectations,” suggesting that the fundamental backdrop for sustained Dollar strength is becoming less supportive.

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF retains a mild bullish bias after reclaiming the key moving averages and the 0.8000 psychological mark in early June. However, price action has since turned largely sideways as momentum indicators soften.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands near the neutral 52 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers slightly below zero. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 16 also points to weak trend strength, inting at a consolidative tone rather than a decisive trend continuation.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 0.8150 horizontal level, followed by the stronger 0.8200 barrier. A sustained break above 0.8200 could restore bullish momentum and open the door to additional gains.

On the downside, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8082 offers immediate support, followed by the 0.8000 psychological mark. A break below this area would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7974 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7932.

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The USD/CHF trades near the top trendline of a ‘bearish-flag,’ holds steady at around 0.8034, following the release of good inflation data on the producer side.

Price action shows that the bullish market structure of successive higher highs and higher lows remains intact, suggesting further upside. However, momentum flattened despite bullish conditions, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This suggests that buyers need to be cautious about a potential pullback if USD/CHF tumbles below 0.8000.

For a bullish continuation, the pair must clear the top trendline of the bearish flag near 0.8140/45 before launching an attack towards 0.8200. Once those levels are surpassed, the next stop is the June 19, 2025, daily high at 0.8215, followed by the June 4 2025, peak at 0.8250.

Downwards, the first support is the August 12 low of the day (LOD) at 0.8094. Once surpassed, it opens the door towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8076.

Swiss Franc FAQs

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

USD/CHF trades with a positive bias on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recent gains ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Price action has stabilized above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) following a sharp pullback from above 0.8200 in late July.

At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8113, extending gains for a second consecutive day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, hovers around 99.80, holding above the 100-day SMA at 99.75.

USD/CHF holds a mildly positive technical tone above the 50-day SMA at 0.8067, though the 21-day SMA at 0.8112 keeps gains in check.

The 100-day SMA at 0.7968 supports the broader recovery structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 points to balanced momentum after cooling from earlier overbought levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, suggesting that upside momentum has weakened. However, the broader tone stays constructive as long as the pair holds above the 50-day SMA.

A sustained break above the 21-day SMA could open the door to 0.8150, followed by the 0.8200 psychological mark. On the downside, a move below the 50-day SMA would expose the 0.8000 psychological level. Further losses could bring the 100-day SMA at 0.7968 and the horizontal support at 0.7900 into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

The US Dollar (USD) pares gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, with the USD/CHF pair drifting towards the 0.8100 level, after rejection at 0.8136 highs on Thursday. The Greenback is still on track for a 0.3% rally this week, but investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is keeping USD bulls in check on Friday.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect only a modest improvement in July's payrolls, looking for “a slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously) and private (+65k vs. +49k) payrolls.” They note that such an outcome “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring momentum.

In Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate Index, released earlier in the day, has shown a slight improvement to -35 in Q3, from -40 in the previous quarter, although it remains close to historic lows. The impact on the Swissie has been minimal.

Technical Analysis: The Near-term bias remains positive

USD/CHF trades at 0.8105, after retreating from 0.813, yet with price action showing a constructive pattern from July 30 lows. Momentum is positive, although showing fading bullish traction, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around a neutral 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line marginally above its signal and zero.

US Dollar bears are testing support at a previous resistance zone above 0.8100. Further down, the trendline resistance from the mentioned July 30 low, now around 0.8075, and the bottom of August's trading range, at the 0.8055-0.8060 area, are likely to test downside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at Thursday's high of 0.8124 and the July 30 high at 0.8175 ahead of the 13-month high, at 0.8205 hit in late July.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Swiss Franc Technical Outlook: USD/CHF Multi-Timeframe Analysis USD/CHF is pressing against confluent resistance on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts, keeping the Swiss franc on the back foot as it coils. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, breaks down the multi time frame picture for USD/CHF and the US data steering the US dollar. He walks through what a break of the weekly opening range would mean for USD/CHF, and why the broader dollar uptrend stays intact even on a pullback, leaving the Swiss franc under pressure. He also looks at how the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls and U.S. consumer price index reports could move the U.S. dollar, and how shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations have taken momentum out of the greenback.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Key USD/CHF Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Correction Pressures Pivotal Support Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Risk Builds Into Month-End Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Challenges the July Downtrend Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The USD/CHF pair reverses a modest intraday dip and touches a fresh daily high during the early European session on Wednesday, though it remains below the 0.8100 mark. The US Dollar (USD) sticks to its negative bias amid hopes for a US-Iran deal and receding Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations, which is seen acting as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair.

Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive bearish bets on the USD and await the release of the US monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday – for more cues about the Fed's policy path. This, along with further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, will drive the buck and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CHF pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the recent pullback from the year-to-date high – levels above the 0.8200 mark set in July. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive around the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 hints at modest, rather than decisive, bullish momentum.

This suggests that upside attempts are still constrained by the nearby cluster of overhead resistance near the 0.8100 confluence – comprising the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 38.2% Fibo. level. Further barriers emerge at the 50.0% level at 0.8121 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.8141, before stronger resistance at 0.8169 and the swing high zone near 0.8205.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 23.6% retracement at 0.8077, with a break exposing the cycle low region around 0.8037 as the next bearish target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/CHF 1-hour chart

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%-0.09%0.02%0.06%0.00%0.47%0.06%EUR0.04%-0.04%0.07%0.10%0.05%0.50%0.09%GBP0.09%0.04%0.11%0.14%0.07%0.55%0.14%JPY-0.02%-0.07%-0.11%0.05%-0.00%0.45%0.04%CAD-0.06%-0.10%-0.14%-0.05%-0.05%0.42%-0.01%AUD-0.01%-0.05%-0.07%0.00%0.05%0.46%0.05%NZD-0.47%-0.50%-0.55%-0.45%-0.42%-0.46%-0.39%CHF-0.06%-0.09%-0.14%-0.04%0.01%-0.05%0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels USD/CHF reversed sharply after briefly reaching a major upside objective highlighted in last month's forecast. An outside-week reversal has shifted the focus from trend continuation to whether support can stabilize the broader uptrend. The median line of the yearly advance is now the key battleground heading into August. A break below support would threaten a deeper correction within the yearly uptrend, while a pivot above the July high would be needed to put the bulls back in control. This week's U.S. labor market data could provide the catalyst for the next major directional move. Resistance 8103, 8200/15 (key), 8333– Support 8009 (key), 7827/44, 7769 USD/CHF enters the new week / month at an important technical crossroads after reversing sharply from major technical resistance at the yearly high. The failed breakout has shifted attention from trend continuation to whether buyers can stabilize the current pullback before it develops into a broader correction. With price now testing median-line support and key U.S. labor market data on deck, the next move out of last week's range could provide important directional guidance for the opening weeks of August. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF trading within a well-defined range just above the median line and that, “losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch..” We specifically highlighted that, “the next major technical consideration is eyed at the 100% extension of the January advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 8200/15. Note that the upper parallel converges on this zone over the next few weeks and represents an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.” The range broke the following week with USD/CHF registering an intraday high at 8207 before reversing sharply on the heels of the Fed rate decision. An outside-weekly reversal off the yearly high last week takes price back into the median-line and the immediate focus is on a breakout of last week’s range for guidance.  

Initial resistance is eyed at the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8103 with key resistance steady at 8200/15. A breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at eh 2024 low at 8333 and the 2026 low-week close / 2024 open at 8407/16- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A break / weekly close below the median-line would threaten a deeper correction within the yearly uptrend towards the March high-week close (HWC) at 8009. Key support / broader bullish invalidation rests with the objective yearly open and the 52-week moving average at 7927/44. Note that this zone converges on the lower parallel over the next few weeks and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

           

Bottom line: USD/CHF reversed off confluent uptrend resistance last week with the pullback now testing support at the median line. The immediate focus into the start of the month is on a breakout of last week’s range for directional guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading higher on this stretch, with a breach above 8215 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Attention this week turns to the U.S. labor market, with ADP private-sector employment due Wednesday ahead of Friday's highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report. With Chair Warsh emphasizing the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, the employment data will be closely scrutinized for clues on how much flexibility policymakers have to tighten policy further. Stay nimble into the releases and use the weekly close as your directional guide. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

Key USD/CHF Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts Gold (XAU/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The USD/CHF rises by about 0.27% on Monday as traders buy the Greenback following an intervention in FX markets by US and Japanese authorities. Better-than-expected US economic data, a “halt” in hostilities between the US and Iran, provided a tailwind for the American currency, which so far trades at 0.8100 against the Swiss Franc, after bouncing off daily lows of 0.8056.

Overall, the technical picture remains constructive after USD/CHF bounced off the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8037, which exacerbated a move above 0.8100. Momentum remains bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), after two days of bearishness, as buyers moved in to buy the dip.

For a bullish continuation, the USD/CHF needs to clear the 0.8150 milestone. Above this area sits the 0.8200 figure, followed by the yearly peak at 0.8207. Once surpassed, the next key resistance levels are the psychological 0.8250 and 0.8300.

For a bearish reversal, spot prices must drop below the 0.8100 mark and the 50-day SMA at 0.8037. After this level, the next area of interest would be the 100-day SMA at 0.7954, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7928.

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The US Dollar was active early on Monday, as the week started with a bang.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USDJPY experiences a sharp sell-off, breaking below 160.00 and retesting its 200-day EMA support. The US Dollar has plunged against the Japanese Yen to kick off the trading week as it has been acknowledged that the United States and Japan both have intervened in the currency markets to save the Yen. The Japanese Yen is a funding currency for a lot of borrowing around the world, and the concern would be that this thing could spiral out of control and cause chaos. That being said, we’ve seen interventions previously.

This is the first time that the Americans have acknowledged being involved in it, and it is worth noting that the market stopped right at the 155 Yen level. So, this was a big support level that has held so far. At this point, the question is whether or not the market can bounce. We’ll have to wait and see, but it already has done it a couple of times by fighting back against the intervention.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USDCAD tests dynamic support at the 50 EMA near the 1.4000 psychological level following a retracement. The US Dollar has rallied against the Canadian Dollar to pierce the 50-day EMA early on Monday and does look like it continues to see a lot of support in the 1.40 level. The 1.40 level is a round figure that has been both support and resistance, and it’s also right around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It looks like it is stable here from the recent price action.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis USDCHF pulls back after testing resistance at 0.8150, consolidating near the 50-day EMA. The US Dollar has rallied a bit against the Swiss Franc during the session as well, and it is looking at the 50-day EMA as potential support. Overall, this is a market that looks like it’s still bullish despite the fact that we did have a couple of bad days. We are in a bit of a channel, and the 0.8150 level seems to be an area that has attracted a lot of attention as of late.

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The US dollar continues to fight back, as we are looking to resume some of the previous trends.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EURUSD trades around 1.14856, rebounding from the 1.140 area but staying below its 200-day EMA at 1.15583. Source: TradingView. The euro has pulled back a bit during the trading session here on Friday as we are now testing the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA being broken below would open up a move down to the 1.14 level, a large round, psychologically significant figure that has been pretty strong support recently. To the upside, we have the 200-day EMA at the 1.1558 level offering resistance. We will just have to wait and see how that plays out, but a break above there would be very strong.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis USDCAD trades around 1.40487 after easing from the 1.425 high, holding above its 50-day EMA at 1.40338. Source: TradingView. The US dollar is recovering against the Canadian dollar early during trading as the market continues to bounce around the 50-day EMA. Breaking above here could send this market challenging the 1.4150 level. The 1.40 level underneath is a floor in the market, and I think it continues to be a major area of concern. It had previously been significant resistance, so market memory would suggest that perhaps there will be buyers here. Plus, we have the 200-day EMA race towards that area. Interest rate differential still favors the US dollar, so this is part of what is playing out in this market.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USDCHF trades around 0.81081, holding above its 50-day EMA at 0.80469 and 200-day EMA at 0.79910. Source: TradingView. The US dollar against the Swiss franc has rallied quite nicely after a couple of rough days. We are now breaking above the 0.81 level, bouncing from the 50-day EMA, adding more possibility of a break higher and the ability to collect swap yet again. Over the longer term, I do think this is a market where the interest rate differential will be the main story. The Swiss National Bank does not want a strong Swiss franc anyway, so momentum suggests that the buyers are still very much in control.

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The USD/CHF retreats for the second straight day, down more than 1% amid growing speculation of an intervention in the FX markets, which boosted the Japanese Yen. The pair fell to a 10-day low of 0.8039, slightly above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8027. As of writing, the pair meanders around 0.8250.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookDespite its retreat, USD/CHF remains upward-biased. The market structure indicates that the uptrend remains intact as long as spot prices are above the 50-day SMA and the July 10 cycle low of 0.8010.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish. Hence, with price action revealing that bulls are still in charge, while the RSI is bearish, caution is warranted.

For a bullish resumption, USD/CHF needs to clear 0.8100. Above this area lies the high of the day (HOD) at 0.8175, ahead of 0.8200. If price registers a decisive break, the yearly high of 0.8207 might be up for grabs.

Downwards, a breach below the 50-day SMA and 0.8010 opens the door to a break of 0.8000. Below, the bullish market structure would be broken, opening the door for further downside. The next support would be the 100-day SMA at 0.7950, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7922.

USD/CHF Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price This Month The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this month. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.91%-1.55%-1.80%-1.32%-1.55%-3.37%-0.37%EUR0.91%-0.61%-0.92%-0.45%-0.62%-2.53%0.55%GBP1.55%0.61%-0.26%0.21%0.00%-1.90%1.17%JPY1.80%0.92%0.26%0.45%0.19%-1.71%1.43%CAD1.32%0.45%-0.21%-0.45%-0.26%-2.13%0.98%AUD1.55%0.62%-0.00%-0.19%0.26%-1.91%1.20%NZD3.37%2.53%1.90%1.71%2.13%1.91%3.15%CHF0.37%-0.55%-1.17%-1.43%-0.98%-1.20%-3.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

The US dollar continues to flex its muscles early on Tuesday.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD drops to 1.1362, breaking below its range and EMAs. Source: TradingView The Euro has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session here on Tuesday as we continue to hang on by a thread. We are at the bottom of a recent consolidation area, and I do think at least at this point in time there are a lot of questions to ask when it comes to the Euro. Interest rates in America will be a big driver typically of this currency pair, and despite the fact that rates have drifted a little bit lower, they are still uncomfortably high, and there are concerns in the Middle East, which has a major influence on that as well.

The recent area of consolidation could be in the process of trying to form a double bottom; we’ll just have to wait and see. Short-term rallies will more likely than not continue to be swimming upstream if recent history is to be believed.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD slips to 1.3279, drifting below its EMAs near 1.33. Source: TradingView The pound initially tried to rally but then gave back gains as the market is still hanging around the 1.33 level. This is with elevated US rates. There are concerns in the Middle East, and sometimes traders will run to the US dollar in times of concern. It is possible that’s what’s going on here. The market is likely to continue to be noisy, but it has decidedly turned bearish over the last couple of weeks.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis USD/CHF grinds higher to 0.8198, breaking out above its EMAs. Source: TradingView And the US dollar continues to grind higher against the Swiss Franc. The positive swap differential favors the US dollar as traders continue to see value in the greenback. We had recently consolidated and now have broken out of that little consolidation range to show increasing bullish pressure.

The market is typically one that’s very choppy and somewhat sideways, and more of a grind even when it does trend, so patience is something that I typically find I have to employ here against the Franc. But getting paid at the end of every day is a huge bonus here with that positive swap, and right now I think that is one of the main drivers.

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The USD/CHF extends its advance for the sixth straight trading session, up 0.11%, as the Greenback holds firm against a basket of six currencies, the US Dollar Index (DXY). At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8190, with buyers targeting 0.8200.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Swiss Franc is set to continue to weaken, both technically and fundamentally. Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep rates near zero until the end of 2027.

Given the backdrop, the USD/CHF path of least resistance is upwards, and it will face key resistance levels at 0.8200, followed by the June 19, 2025, peak at 0.8215. A breach of the latter will expose the June 4, 2025, peak at 0.8250, followed by the 0.8300 milestone.

Conversely, if sellers push USD/CHF below 0.8150, it could exacerbate a move lower. The first-floor level would be 0.8100. A decisive break exposes the July 15 cycle low of 0.8034, ahead of the 50/day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8012.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%0.28%-0.07%0.23%-0.09%0.25%0.11%EUR-0.00%0.23%-0.07%0.20%-0.12%0.26%0.09%GBP-0.28%-0.23%-0.30%-0.03%-0.34%-0.01%-0.13%JPY0.07%0.07%0.30%0.25%-0.04%0.30%0.18%CAD-0.23%-0.20%0.03%-0.25%-0.30%0.04%-0.10%AUD0.09%0.12%0.34%0.04%0.30%0.38%0.20%NZD-0.25%-0.26%0.00%-0.30%-0.04%-0.38%-0.16%CHF-0.11%-0.09%0.13%-0.18%0.10%-0.20%0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).