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USD/CAD extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3780 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is falling within the descending channel pattern, signalling a persistent bearish bias.

USD/CAD is holding a bearish near-term bias as spot remains under both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA below the longer one and price trading beneath both hint at a capped corrective tone, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 38 stays in negative territory without yet signaling oversold conditions.

The USD/CAD pair may fall toward the descending channel bottom at 1.3600, followed by 1.3481, the lowest since October 2024.

On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3819, followed by the descending channel top near the 50-day EMA of 1.3918. A break above this confluence resistance zone would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the nearly 17-month high of 1.4248, which was recorded on June 24, 2026.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.04%-0.31%-0.04%-0.03%0.14%0.01%EUR0.08%0.05%-0.23%0.03%0.03%0.23%0.10%GBP0.04%-0.05%-0.27%-0.00%0.00%0.18%0.06%JPY0.31%0.23%0.27%0.26%0.27%0.42%0.32%CAD0.04%-0.03%0.00%-0.26%0.00%0.19%0.04%AUD0.03%-0.03%-0.00%-0.27%-0.00%0.19%0.09%NZD-0.14%-0.23%-0.18%-0.42%-0.19%-0.19%-0.12%CHF-0.01%-0.10%-0.06%-0.32%-0.04%-0.09%0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

The US dollar failed to hold its gains following a significantly stronger-than-expected US employment report. The economy added 162,000 jobs versus the forecast of 56,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% and previous employment figures were revised higher. The data initially triggered a sharp rise in the dollar, but the US currency subsequently gave back most of its gains. One factor limiting the impact of the strong report was a slowdown in annual wage growth, which somewhat reduced its overall effect. The market reaction suggests that even strong employment data have not yet led to a sustained repricing of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy.

Market attention is now shifting towards US inflation data. A strong labour market reduces the need for rapid Fed easing, but the future path of interest rates will depend to a large extent on developments in price pressures. As a result, the upcoming inflation figures could become the next key driver for the dollar.

AUD/USD The Australian dollar benefited from the subsequent weakening of the US currency, with AUD/USD reaching fresh recent highs near 0.7200. The AUD is also receiving support from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain a relatively hawkish stance, limiting the downside potential for the Australian currency.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD points to the possibility of further gains towards the 0.7260–0.7280 area, provided the price holds above 0.7200. A return below 0.7200, followed by a sustained move below this level, would weaken the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a corrective decline.

USD/CAD USD/CAD continues to decline and has approached the August lows around 1.3730. In addition to the weaker US dollar, the Canadian dollar is being supported by oil prices, which remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran.

A sustained move below 1.3730, followed by this level becoming resistance, could open the way for a further decline towards the 1.3520–1.3570 area.

Key events for USD/CAD and AUD/USD:

today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US Mortgage Market Index; today at 15:15 (GMT+3): weekly change in US employment according to ADP; today at 23:30 (GMT+3): weekly US crude oil inventories according to the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Overall, following the strong NFP report, the dollar failed to hold its initial gains, allowing the commodity-linked currencies to return to important technical levels. AUD/USD is testing the area of recent highs, while USD/CAD is approaching its August lows. With a relatively quiet economic calendar, further moves will depend on how expectations for Fed policy are repriced and on positioning ahead of the next US inflation data.

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EUR/USD slides after strong US jobs data as USD/JPY tests a major swing low and USD/CAD surges following a sharp Canadian employment miss.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD price chart showing price at 1.16006, trading below the 50 EMA (1.16133) and the 200 EMA (1.16155). Source: TradingView The euro has plunged after the much stronger-than-anticipated jobs number coming out of the United States, sending it all the way down to basically 1.1585 or so before bouncing. I think we now have a range-bound market that doesn’t really know what to do. I currently have this range between yesterday’s point where I said I would be a seller at 1.1640 and the bottom here at 1.1580.

I do favor, I suppose, the downside from a longer-term standpoint still, but this is a market that, at least in the short term, probably is going to bounce around. Keep in mind Monday is a holiday in the United States.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY price chart showing price at 155.732, trading below the 50 EMA (156.968) and the 200 EMA (158.518). Source: TradingView The dollar-yen is suddenly a lot more interesting to me. This is a major swing low that we find ourselves testing again. It was interesting that the initial reaction was to go to the upside. Makes sense: interest rate spike. I think there’s a real chance of a bounce here, but having said that, there’s a lot of fear out there about the Bank of Japan. I think longer term, the Bank of Japan has very limited options, but it is an interesting turnaround.

So, I’ll be watching this today to see how it plays out. We can see that it is getting pretty aggressive. I think somebody’s trying to keep this from popping higher based on the action that I see right now. That being said, if we take out the top of this candlestick, that’d be pretty bullish.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis USD/CAD price chart showing price at 1.38654, bouncing sharply above the 200 EMA (1.38508). Source: TradingView The dollar against the Canadian dollar is just screaming higher. Not a huge surprise; there are a lot of things working against Canada right now, not the least of which is the United States. Canadian employment came in at -41,000 as opposed to the supposed addition of 15,000, so that’s a huge miss for Canada; it’s a huge gain for the United States. The trade war going on at the same time, of course, has major ramifications as well. I am bullish, looking at short-term pullbacks as buying opportunities.

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EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF forecast: Key reversal setups emerge as the dollar weakens ahead of NFP, with 1.1640, 1.3780 and 0.8050 in focus.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD price chart showing price at 1.16260, trading above both the 50 EMA (1.15961) and the 200 EMA (1.16130). Source: TradingView The Euro rose quite a bit in early trading on Thursday, but with the jobs report coming out, I’m watching the 1.1640 level. That was where we had seen that massive sell-off. I’m looking for signs of exhaustion to short this. Now, I don’t want to get married to this position. This is not going to be a long-term position by any stretch of the imagination, but I think it’s difficult to imagine a market that’s just truly going to fly ahead of that Nonfarm Payroll announcement. It could, obviously, but I’m looking for signs of exhaustion to start shorting.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis USD/CAD price chart showing price at 1.37935, trading below both the 50 EMA (1.38520) and the 200 EMA (1.38648). Source: TradingView The dollar against the Canadian dollar has fallen pretty significantly over the last couple of days, but we have a gap down here at 1.3780 that I’m watching very closely. If we get a bounce from here, I’m willing to go long. Now, keep in mind both of these countries produce their jobs report at the same time on Friday morning, so I’ll be out of this position no matter what it does before then.

With that being said, as long as we get some type of bounce, I’m willing to play that V-shaped pattern here as the interest rate differential continues to favor the United States despite the fact that rates have dropped a little bit early in the session.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis USD/CHF price chart showing price at 0.80707, breaking below the 200 EMA (0.80846) and the 50 EMA (0.81103). Source: TradingView Finally, the USD/CHF pair. This is one I’ve been long for a very long time. It is falling apart. Again, like the Euro, I’m kind of watching to see a little bit of exhaustion somewhere right around the 0.8050 level. I’ll be watching to see if we get a bounce. That’s a place I could go long. But again, I don’t want to be in the dollar when the Nonfarm Payroll announcement comes out. So all of these will be very short-term trades at best.

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USD/CAD extends its losses for the second consecutive day. trading around 1.3820 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is positioned within the descending channel pattern, signalling a bearish bias.

The USD/CAD is keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA sits just above price, reinforcing immediate topside pressure, while the longer EMA defines a broader cap on recovery attempts. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.7 stays in mildly negative territory, hinting that selling pressure persists but without reaching oversold extremes.

The USD/CAD pair may navigate the region around the descending channel bottom at 1.3640. A break below the channel would open the doors for the pair to navigate the region around 1.3481, the lowest since October 2024.

On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3856, followed by the descending channel top near the 50-day EMA of 1.3941. A break above this confluence resistance zone would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the nearly 17-month high of 1.4248, which was recorded on June 24, 2026.

Williams flags strong economy behind higher yields, keeps Fed focus on 2% inflationFed's Williams delivers a slightly more hawkish-than-usual tone, with a 6/10 FXS Speechtracker score marginally above the 5.9/10 historical average, as rising yields are framed as a function of a strong economy and robust outlook rather than worsening inflation expectations. The emphasis that tariffs and Middle East conflict are pushing inflation above target, alongside a solid labor market and strong investment demand, is balanced by reassurance that inflation expectations are contained and the trend is toward lower inflation, keeping the policy narrative anchored around achieving 2% inflation in the foreseeable future. Overall, the message supports the view that the Fed can stay data-dependent while tolerating tighter financial conditions driven by growth rather than inflation fears.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 1.42 points to 127.44, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness despite the speech remaining firmly in hawkish territory above the 100 neutral line. This configuration suggests that, relative to the established baseline, markets still see the Fed as leaning toward tighter policy, but Williams' acknowledgment of easing inflation trends tempers expectations for additional aggressive action even as the Dollar stays supported by strong-growth-driven yield dynamics.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.15%-0.06%-1.22%-0.14%-0.03%-0.15%-0.46%EUR0.15%0.08%-1.09%-0.05%0.13%-0.07%-0.31%GBP0.06%-0.08%-1.16%-0.11%0.05%-0.12%-0.39%JPY1.22%1.09%1.16%1.07%1.21%1.03%0.77%CAD0.14%0.05%0.11%-1.07%0.12%-0.05%-0.30%AUD0.03%-0.13%-0.05%-1.21%-0.12%-0.17%-0.39%NZD0.15%0.07%0.12%-1.03%0.05%0.17%-0.22%CHF0.46%0.31%0.39%-0.77%0.30%0.39%0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF approach key technical levels as traders track US yields and prepare for Friday’s potentially market-moving jobs data.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD price chart displaying trading near 1.15811 with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.780%. Source: TradingView The euro has been pretty negative in the early part of the session, but we are starting to turn things around a little bit here as we head into the US session. With this, I think we have to look at this as a market that may try to recover a little bit.

With interest rates in America drifting lower, I’m still going to watch the 1.16 level. I think that’s an area that could end up being a little bit of a barrier. I still prefer the US dollar over the euro. A nice bounce here, signs of exhaustion, would be a classic continuation play.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD price chart with the 50-period EMA at 1.38975 and 200-period EMA at 1.38748. Source: TradingView The US dollar has been strong against the Canadian dollar, and I think that probably continues. So, I’ll be watching the 1.3910 level for a potential bounce that I can take advantage of.

In this environment, the trade war between the United States and America continues to be a major factor. Plus, we have to keep in mind that both of these countries release their jobs numbers on Friday, so we could get a little bit of a wiggle here. I plan on taking advantage of it.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis USD/CHF price chart showing the 200-period EMA at 0.80766 and Fibonacci retracement levels. Source: TradingView In the US dollar against the Swiss franc pair, this has been a long-term holding of mine for some time. I think we have a situation here where traders will continue to look at this as a buy-on-the-dip scenario right around 0.8120 and 0.81. Both areas I’m looking to buy some type of bounce if I get the opportunity. The 0.8160 level above is short-term resistance that, if broken, could get a bit of FOMO trading in this pair for short-term traders to join the trend.

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Summary:

The USD/CAD is currently in a cautious bullish move ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rates decision on 2 September 2026. Current setup Bias: cautiously bullish USD/CAD.

USD/CAD is currently trading with a cautiously bullish sentiment ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. The pair’s latest quoted price is around 1.3931. The cautious bullish bias stems from defensive positioning into the US dollar due to renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions and Tuesday’s rise in US Treasury yields. US bond yields are rising amid growing expectations of a September Fed rate hike, following the Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole comments.

Canada is a major oil exporter, and the commodity-linked Canadian dollar is receiving a boost from the sharp rise in oil prices that trails the geopolitical standoff. However, this has proved insufficient in offsetting the greenback’s broad strength.

USD/CAD: Macro Drivers 1) Fed expectations Bets for a September Fed rate hike have risen sharply and are approaching 70%. The Fedwatch CME tool currently shows a 67.9% probability of rates going up to 3.75%-4.00%. The rise in US Treasury yields has strengthened the dollar’s interest-rate advantage over the Bank of Canada. The yield advantage could widen if the BoC holds rates amid hawkish Fed expectations.

2) Higher oil prices support the CAD Brent crude has climbed above $95 amid the renewed US-Iran geopolitical conflict. The Canadian economy benefits from this environment whenever crude prices soar, boosting the CAD. This factor currently constrains any USD/CAD upside moves.

3) Bank of Canada Decision Market consensus is that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged. Current trade tensions with the US increase uncertainty about the Canadian economy. This is likely the overriding driver encouraging BoC policymakers to remain cautious.

Price Catalysts that Matter This Week The key catalysts for the week are:

1. Bank of Canada decision: The BoC is expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 2.25%. Watch out for the tone of the statement. However, leaving rates at this level maintains a yield differential of at least 150 bps between the Fed and BoC.

2.US jobs data: A stellar Non-Farm Payrolls report doubles down on the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and keeps US bond yields elevated and the US Dollar supported.

3. Fed expectations: As long as US bond yields remain elevated and the odds for a September Fed rate hike keep rising, hawkish Fed expectations will continue to be a primary catalyst of price action on the USD/CAD.

4. Oil prices: The CAD is expected to benefit from oil prices better than its southern neighbour. The question is whether this benefit offsets the USD’s defensive demand from geopolitically-driven safe-haven plays, or the hawkish Fed expectations which keep the greenback on bid.

USD/CAD: Weekly Forecast Scenarios Base case: The base case scenario sees the pair maintaining its cautiously bullish move. This keeps the pair in a modest uptrend, supported above the 1.3800 psychological pivot.

Bull case: A strong US jobs report on Friday + hawkish Fed expectations → allows USD/CAD to break above 1.3920, with targets set initially at the 1.4000 psychological barrier.

Bear case: oil extends its rally (CAD supportive) + BoC hawkish statement (even if rates stay unchanged) + disappointing US jobs data → USD/CAD falls back toward 1.3800.

USD/CAD Technical Outlook The current bullish move will be sustained if the ongoing breakout above the 1.3919 resistance completes. This will set bulls on the path toward the 1.4013 resistance (19 July low). Above this barrier, the 27th July high at 1.4129 forms the next upside target.

Fig 1: USD/CAD (4-hr chart) showing key price levels (snapshot: 2 September 2026) On the flip side, the 28 May low at 1.3774 forms the next downside target if the breakout move above 1.3919 fails. The 17 August/1 September lows at 1.3850 form the intermediate pivot which must be degraded to expose 1.3774.

Bottom line The immediate bias for the pair remains cautiously bullish. This reflects US monetary-policy expectations and safe-haven demand for the greenback from the geopolitical escalation outweighing whatever support the CAD gets from higher oil prices.

TL;DR: The Bank of Canada’s Wednesday hold at 2.25% is fully priced, but economist consensus (first hike in Q4 2027) and market pricing (roughly 1.76 hikes by March 2027) disagree sharply on what comes next — making the statement’s tone, not the decision itself, the real driver for USD/CAD.

Everyone Expects a Hold. Almost Nobody Agrees on What Happens Next The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its rate at 2.25% on Wednesday. All 35 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast a hold, and market pricing agrees. If that’s all traders cared about, this would be a low-drama meeting. But the agreement ends almost immediately after Wednesday.

The Reuters consensus sees the first BoC hike only in Q4 2027. Among economists who provided a forecast, fewer than half expect even one increase by the end of Q2 2027. CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld describes the Bank as being in a “watchful-waiting stance,” with inflation concerns roughly balanced by growth risks from the Canada-US trade conflict.

Markets aren’t waiting nearly that long. OIS pricing as of Sept. 1 embeds roughly 1.76 quarter-point hikes by March 3, 2027, with that meeting carrying around 76.8% marginal probability of an increase. In other words, the market’s center of gravity for tighter policy sits several quarters ahead of economist consensus.

That’s the real story heading into Wednesday: the hold is priced; the timing of the next hike is not.

Survey Says Late 2027. Some Banks Say October. There’s an important reason not to treat the survey-market gap as a simple contest over who has the better forecast. Each economist in a Reuters poll submits a single path they consider most likely. Markets have to price every plausible path at once. A smaller probability of something much more hawkish can therefore drag OIS pricing forward even if most forecasters still expect a long pause.

National Bank and Scotiabank show exactly what that hawkish scenario looks like. Both expect the BoC to hike to 2.50% in October and again to 2.75% in December — more than a year ahead of the Reuters consensus.

OIS doesn’t say those banks are right. October remains a minority outcome. But it says the possibility is real enough to matter. So there are really three positions rather than two: most economists expect the BoC to wait until late 2027, National Bank and Scotia see tightening beginning this autumn, and markets sit somewhere in between — pricing an earlier move than consensus without fully embracing the aggressive 2026 path.

Two New Forces May Be Pulling Pricing Forward The difference between probability-weighted market pricing and single-path forecasts is the most defensible explanation for the gap. But the timing also raises two interesting questions.

The Reuters poll closed on Aug. 28, before renewed US-Iran fighting pushed Brent back above $90. Canada is an oil exporter, so higher crude can support CAD directly, while persistent energy inflation could also make the BoC less comfortable leaving rates unchanged for an extended period. It’s plausible this week’s oil shock has pushed Canadian rate expectations higher — we can’t prove that without a comparable OIS snapshot from before the escalation, so it should remain a hypothesis rather than a conclusion.

US rates are another possibility. Treasury yields have surged after Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and the US 10-year is now challenging 4.8%. Canadian OIS could be participating in a broader North American rates repricing rather than reflecting a purely domestic rethink. That distinction will become clearer if Canadian pricing starts moving independently after Wednesday.

With No New Forecasts, Watch Every Change in Tone There’s no new Monetary Policy Report this week — the next MPR comes Oct. 28. That strips away one of the usual numerical signals and leaves statement language and Governor Macklem’s press conference with more work to do.

A more hawkish Bank would give OIS pricing greater credibility. Markets will listen for less concern about trade-related downside risk, greater emphasis on inflation near the top of the 1–3% target band, or any suggestion that recent economic resilience has reduced the need for caution.

A more dovish tone would strengthen economist consensus. If the BoC continues emphasizing weak demand, trade uncertainty, and temporary or externally driven price pressure, the argument for waiting well into 2027 would become easier to defend.

Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers speak at 10:30 ET, and with the rate itself almost predetermined, changes in emphasis — or conspicuous omissions from July’s message — could drive the Canadian Dollar reaction.

Friday Tests Both Sides of USD/CAD Wednesday may not even be the most important day for the pair this week. Canada and the US both release employment reports Friday, Sept. 4.

Canada enters the report with a surprisingly constructive recent trend. Employment has risen for three consecutive months, with roughly 181,000 jobs added since April, while unemployment fell to 6.4% in July, the lowest in two years. If that continues, the market’s earlier BoC-hike pricing gains another argument. If the labor market rolls over, the watchful-waiting camp gets stronger evidence that the Bank should stay patient.

Then there’s US NFP. Strong US jobs could reinforce Warsh-driven Fed repricing and support the Dollar even if Canadian data are solid. Weak NFP could undercut the USD side of the pair. Wednesday tests BoC expectations. Friday tests both sides of USD/CAD.

Oil Could Reinforce CAD, or Complicate the Whole Trade Brent around $92 adds another variable. Oil is pressing toward the upper side of a multi-week triangle, with descending resistance around $94.83 and rising support near $84.56. Renewed US-Iran confrontation means either boundary could become vulnerable to a headline-driven break.

A sustained rise in crude would normally favor CAD through Canada’s terms of trade. In the current cycle, though, it could also feed inflation concerns and strengthen the case for earlier BoC tightening, giving the Canadian Dollar a second channel of support. But geopolitical oil shocks also feed US inflation and Treasury yields, so oil isn’t a one-directional USD/CAD signal — it’s another reason to avoid treating the current OIS-survey gap as settled before this week’s events play out.

ActionForex’s Technical View on USD/CAD: Bounced, But Not Reversed The charts tell a similarly unresolved story. USD/CAD has recovered from 1.3730, but the bounce still looks corrective against the decline from 1.4247. Last week’s broad Dollar strength wasn’t enough to push the pair through 1.3927, the 38.2% retracement of that fall, and price remains below descending near-term resistance.

Momentum is neutral. The 4H RSI is around 50 and the MACD is hovering close to zero — neither supports the claim that a new bullish trend has begun.

As long as 1.3927 caps upside, another move lower remains favored. A break of 1.3823 would be the first sign the rebound is ending and put 1.3730 back in focus. A break of 1.3730 would resume bearish pressure and reopen the larger downside.

The alternative is clear too. A firm move above 1.3927 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup and target 1.4002, where former support has turned into resistance.

1.4002 Separates Correction From a Bigger Reassessment The daily chart puts that near-term battle into broader context. The recovery from 1.3480 is still treated as corrective within the medium-term downtrend. It may already have completed as a three-wave rise to 1.4247, or that move may represent the first leg of a larger correction. Either interpretation still allows another test of 1.3480 while 1.4002 holds.

This creates a clean fundamental-technical bridge for Wednesday. If the BoC sounds comfortable waiting well into 2027, USD/CAD could finally push through 1.3927 and test whether 1.4002 can hold. If Macklem sounds closer to the market’s earlier tightening timeline, the rebound from 1.3730 could fail before those levels and the broader bearish structure would stay intact.

Either way, Wednesday’s answer is unlikely to come from the 2.25% printed at the top of the decision. It will come from how the Bank talks about what happens next — and whether that sounds more like economist consensus, market pricing, or the increasingly hawkish minority already calling for an October hike.

Key Takeaways Wednesday’s BoC hold at 2.25% is fully priced by both economists and markets, but the two diverge sharply on timing: Q4 2027 (Reuters consensus) versus roughly 1.76 hikes priced by March 2027 (OIS). National Bank and Scotiabank represent the hawkish tail, expecting hikes to 2.50% in October and 2.75% in December, more than a year ahead of consensus. With no new Monetary Policy Report this week, statement language and Macklem’s press conference tone carry more weight than usual for gauging which camp is right. Friday’s dual Canada-US employment reports may matter more than Wednesday’s decision, testing both the BoC repricing story and the Warsh-driven Fed repricing simultaneously. USD/CAD stays capped below 1.3927 resistance for now; a hawkish BoC tone could push through toward 1.4002, while a dovish tone risks a break of 1.3823 and a retest of 1.3730.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The US Dollar (USD) trades slightly higher to near 1.3863 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Loonie pair remains broadly as ongoing trade tensions between the United States (US) and Canada have put the Canadian Dollar under pressure.

USD/CAD upside seen as trade tensions reinforce loonie’s funding roleAccording to TD Securities, the latest escalation in US–Canada trade tensions "reinforces the CAD's role as a carry funding currency" and leaves them cautious on the Loonie. In a punchier assessment, TD sums up the backdrop as "elbows up, USD/CAD up," noting that the trade tension escalation between the US and Canada "presents asymmetric upside risk in USD/CAD and reinforces CAD's role as a carry funding currency in the FX market."

This week, investors will pay close attention to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

BoC seen holding at 2.25% with balance sheet policy unchangedAnalysts at National Bank of Canada expect the BoC to stay firmly on the sidelines at the upcoming decision, noting that "the Bank of Canada is set to leave its overnight target unchanged at 2.25%, a decision widely expected by forecasters and OIS markets." They highlight that such an outcome "would mark the seventh consecutive hold," underscoring the central bank’s steady policy stance, and add that "we don't expect any changes to balance sheet policy," reinforcing the view that the current framework will be maintained.

Meanwhile, surging US Treasury Yields due to rising oil prices in the wake of renewed US-Iran war continue to offer support to the US Dollar.

On the domestic front, investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August and the JOLTS Job Openings data for July, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3865, maintaining a mildly bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3896 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3900. The pair’s inability to reclaim these nearby overhead levels keeps the latest rebound in check, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 43.5 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that upside momentum remains subdued for now.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the 20-period EMA at 1.3896 and the 50.0% retracement at 1.3900, followed higher by the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3982 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.4084. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3817, ahead of deeper structural levels at the 78.6% retracement at 1.3700 and the prior swing low area aligned with the 100% retracement at 1.3551.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Sep 02, 2026 13:45

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 2.25%

Previous: 2.25%

Source: Bank of Canada

The Pound-Canadian Dollar could extend its recovery if the Bank of Canada turns dovish, while escalating US-Canada trade tensions remain a key risk for the Loonie. The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate rallied last week as markets were spooked by a sharp escalation in trade tensions between the US and Canada.

At the time of writing, the GBP/CAD exchange rate traded at CA$1.8809. Up around 0.2% from the start of last week’s session.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.881686 (-0.09%)

Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.610304 (-0.24%)

Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.39034 (+0.37%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Canadian dollar (CAD) faced significant selling pressure last week amid concerns over the potential economic repercussions of a US-Canada trade war.

Following the collapse of US-Canada trade talks at the end of the previous week, US President Donald Trump imposed a new 50% tariff on a range of Canadian goods, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announcing matching tariffs on US imports.

Given the importance of the US market to Canada's economy, CAD investors were understandably unnerved by the threat of a trade war between the two countries.

The Canadian Dollar's losses were further compounded by a pullback in oil prices, with Brent crude retreating to around $88 per barrel amid diplomatic efforts in the Middle East to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Closing out the week was the publication of Canada's latest GDP figures, with a sharp rebound in growth in the second quarter helping the 'Loonie' to claw back some of its losses from earlier in the session.

The Pound (GBP) initially finding support last week after analysis suggested UK productivity could be recovering more strongly than official data indicates.

That initial boost proved difficult to maintain, however, with a thin domestic economic calendar leaving Sterling without a clear catalyst for movement,

Fresh concerns over household finances then began to weigh on the Pound in the second half of the week after it was confirmed that the UK's energy price cap will rise to a three-year high from October.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Dovish BoC to Weigh on the 'Loonie'? In addition to ongoing US-Canadian trade war developments, the Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate will also be influenced by the Bank of Canada's (BoC) latest interest rate decision this week.

The BoC is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold following its September, meeting, placing the focus for CAD investors on the bank's forward guidance.

If the bank signals the potential need to adopt more accommodating monetary policy to help support the Canadian economy in its trade dispute, we are likely to see the 'Loonie' extend its losses.

Meanwhile, the UK economic calendar remains relatively light this week. August's finalised services PMI could offer Sterling some support, but otherwise the Pound is likely to remain sensitive to broader market sentiment and currency trends.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Canada’s 3.3% Q2 rebound supports the Loonie, but Scotiabank sees USD/CAD wrestling with 1.39 as the broader Dollar regains momentum. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate ended Friday around 1.3903, extending its late-August rebound despite another strong batch of Canadian economic data.

USD/CAD has still fallen around 0.8% during August and almost 1.5% over the past month, but the pair has recovered sharply from the 1.3733 low reached on 22 August.

Scotiabank analysts had expected the Canadian economy to confirm a solid rebound after the weakness around the turn of the year.

“The Canadian economy appears to have rebounded firmly after the weak period around the turn of the year and Q2 growth seems to be tracking a little above 3%,” the bank said.

That call proved accurate.

Statistics Canada reported that real GDP expanded 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, equivalent to an annualised 3.3%, the fastest pace since 2023.

Exports rose 3.6%, household consumption gained 0.8% and business investment increased 2.3%, while June GDP also beat Scotiabank’s 0.2% expectation with a 0.3% increase.

The Canadian Dollar barely moved.

USD/CAD climbed towards 1.3908 instead as Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments drove the broader US Dollar higher and lifted expectations for a September Fed rate increase.

Image: USD to CAD rate 1-month chart Scotiabank Outlook: CAD Fundamentals Have Improved Scotiabank had already warned that good Canadian numbers were becoming less capable of surprising the FX market.

“Solid data is perhaps already priced in to the CAD to a degree, given that domestic data have generally outperformed expectations in recent weeks,” it said, although stronger GDP could “add modestly to CAD tailwinds in the short run.”

The bank’s fair-value work also suggested the USD/CAD exchange rate had little reason to move dramatically away from the high-1.38s.

“Spot continues to track our fair value estimate closely,” Scotiabank said, with its equilibrium estimate falling to 1.3865 before the GDP release.

Friday’s close at 1.3903 therefore leaves the pair only modestly above that estimate.

The more interesting question is whether the Dollar’s post-Warsh rally can overpower the improving Canadian backdrop.

A Reuters poll published Friday found all 35 economists surveyed expect the Bank of Canada to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% next week, with most also expecting no policy change for at least another year.

That removes the prospect of an immediate BoC catalyst, leaving US rates and the worsening Canada-US trade dispute unusually important for the cross.

USD/CAD Technical Forecast: 1.3900 Is Becoming a Useful Pivot Scotiabank’s technical assessment remains officially neutral, but there are bearish signals underneath.

“The USD is maintaining, just about, its push above the 200-day MA (1.3840),” the bank said, while warning that the previous soft close could be a “heads up” that the Dollar rebound was beginning to stall.

“Daily and weekly trend oscillators remain bearish,” with intraday momentum also looking soft.

The levels are relatively clean.

Scotiabank places minor resistance around 1.3895/1.3900, followed by firmer resistance in the mid-to-upper 1.39s.

Support stands at 1.3825/30, with a stronger floor around 1.3775/85.

Friday’s close just above 1.3900 means that first resistance zone is already under pressure.

That contrasts with our recent UBS USD/CAD forecast, where the bank saw scope for near-term support before an eventual decline towards 1.36 during 2027.

Scotiabank is more tactical here.

Canada’s economy is performing well enough to support the Loonie, and its fair-value model sits below spot, but USD/CAD needs to get back under 1.3840 before the technical picture starts looking convincingly bearish again.

For the immediate outlook, 1.3900 is the battleground, 1.3825 the first downside target and the upper 1.39s the level that would signal the Dollar rebound has more room to run.

The USD/CAD pair is seen building on its recovery move from the 1.3730 region, or a three-month low touched last week, and gaining positive traction for the second straight day on Tuesday. Spot prices stick to modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trade around the 1.3865 area, up 0.15% for the day.

The US Dollar (USD) attracts some follow-through buying as inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices keep bets for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the table. Apart from this, geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback. Furthermore, a modest downtick in crude oil prices and the deepening US-Canada trade war undermine the commodity-linked Loonie, lending additional support to the USD/CAD pair.

From a technical perspective, an intraday move above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August decline could be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, momentum indicators are leaning constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 62 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) readings staying in positive territory. This hints that buyers are attempting to stabilize the USD/CAD pair after its recent pullback and build on the recovery from a multi-month low.

Any subsequent move up, however, might confront an immediate resistance near the 1.3900 mark ahead of the 1.3925-1.3930 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibo. level. A further recovery attempt would face additional supply around the 50.0% level at 1.3988 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.4049. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3852, with a deeper floor emerging at the Fibo. anchor near 1.3731 if selling resumes.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.17%-0.04%0.37%0.39%0.26%0.35%0.29%EUR-0.17%-0.21%0.11%0.22%0.09%0.19%0.12%GBP0.04%0.21%0.24%0.45%0.32%0.39%0.35%JPY-0.37%-0.11%-0.24%0.08%-0.03%0.06%-0.00%CAD-0.39%-0.22%-0.45%-0.08%-0.08%-0.01%-0.10%AUD-0.26%-0.09%-0.32%0.03%0.08%0.08%0.03%NZD-0.35%-0.19%-0.39%-0.06%0.01%-0.08%-0.05%CHF-0.29%-0.12%-0.35%0.00%0.10%-0.03%0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The Pound-Canadian Dollar rate could remain under pressure if Canadian GDP rebounds strongly and lifts Bank of Canada rate hike expectations. The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate ticked lower last week as a fresh rise in oil prices bolstered the 'Loonie'.

At the time of writing, the GBP/CAD exchange rate traded at CA$1.8754. Down around 0.2% from the start of last week’s session.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.878441 (-0.10%)

Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.607534 (-0.20%)

Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.3767 (-0.11%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Canadian dollar (CAD) edged higher last week with the commodity-linked currency drawing support from a renewed surge in oil prices.

Brent crude rose to around $94 a barrel last week as the 60-day memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran expired without a final peace deal or an agreed extension, reinforcing concerns that the disruption to energy supplies could persist.

In terms of domestic data, the Canadian Dollar was seemingly unfazed by a stronger-than-expected inflation print and sizable contraction in Canadian retail sales.

The Pound (GBP) put in a mixed performance last week, with the currency fluctuating against most of its rivals amid a flurry of high-impact UK economic data.

A mixed batch of releases left investors struggling to gauge the next move from the Bank of England (BoE). Weaker employment figures followed by an unexpected acceleration in inflation weighed on Sterling during the first half of the week, as the conflicting signals complicated the outlook for interest rates.

The Pound then attempted to regain ground, only for the recovery to falter after a sharp decline in UK retail sales and a shock rise in UK government borrowing last month.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Rebound in Canadian GDP to Boost the 'Loonie'? Looking to the week ahead, the primary catalyst of movement for the Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate is likely to be the publication of Canada's latest GDP data.

Consensus estimates predict Canadian GDP will have rebounded strongly in the second quarter, lifting the country out of the technical recession it slipped into in the first quarter of the year.

This in turn could improve the odds of the Bank of Canada (BoC) delivering an interest rate hike later in the year, boosting the appeal of the 'Loonie'.

Meanwhile, a relatively quiet UK economic calendar should leave Sterling largely dependent on wider risk appetite and developments across global markets.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Key takeaways Canada inflation & BoC stance: July CPI accelerated to 3.0% YoY, pressuring USD/CAD in the short term, but the Bank of Canada maintains a cautious stance as underlying core metrics continue to moderate. Australian labor & RBA dilemma: A sharp contraction in employment pushed unemployment to 4.5%, yet sticky core inflation keeps the RBA constrained in a “higher-for-longer” stance at 4.35%. FOMC minutes & rate expectations: Despite hawkish July minutes, markets looked past the rhetoric toward cooler data, with FedWatch pricing for September rate targets rebounding into the 60%–70% range by late August. Major currency dynamics: Major pairs rallied against the U.S. dollar during the week of August 17–21, led by NZD/USD (+1.57%) and AUD/USD (+1.33%). Canada inflation acceleration & Bank of Canada policy stance For the week of August 17th, 2026, Statistics Canada released the July CPI report, showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.0% YoY—beating forecasts — driven by surging gasoline and travel costs, while underlying core metrics remained relatively subdued. In response, the Canadian dollar strengthened immediately, pushing USD/CAD down roughly 0.2% to 1.3850 on the day.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Despite the headline beat, Bank of Canada (BoC) policymakers maintain a cautious forward stance. The Governing Council is actively balancing near-term inflationary persistence—driven by upticks in the energy and services components—against emerging downside risks to domestic growth, including softer household consumption and elevated debt-servicing costs. While the 3.0% YoY CPI print temporarily suppresses immediate market expectations for aggressive monetary easing, underlying core metrics (CPI-median and CPI-trim) suggest that broader price pressures continue to moderate toward the 2% target band. Consequently, money markets are pricing in a higher probability of a prolonged policy hold, with rate-cut projections shifted further out along the yield curve as central bankers await further confirmation of sustained disinflation before committing to additional policy adjustments.

Australian labor cooling & RBA monetary policy dilemma This week’s Australian labor force data revealed a surprise cooling in the job market, as headline employment declined by 15,800 jobs in July, significantly missing market forecasts and reversing the previous month’s gain of 80,000 jobs. This contraction was driven entirely by a sharp reduction in part-time roles, which pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.5%—its highest level since late 2021—and contributed to a 0.6% drop in total hours worked. Consequently, the Australian dollar (AUD) faced downward pressure following the report, as investors interpreted the data as a sign of a weaker economic environment, leading the market to dial back expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

However, the initial downward pressure on the Australian dollar proved short-lived, as the currency subsequently staged a strong recovery alongside the broader rally against the U.S. dollar later in the week.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Past performance is not indicative of future results

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) finds itself navigating a classic monetary policy dilemma—managing a cooling labor market while stickier price pressures persist. With core inflation, trimmed mean, and weighted median elevated at around 3.6% and headline inflation at 3.8%, both remain above the bank’s 2%–3% target band. However, with the unemployment rate creeping up to 4.5% and net job growth turning negative in July, the RBA is constrained from hiking interest rates further without risking a sharper economic downturn. As a result, the RBA is likely to maintain a “higher-for-longer” policy hold at 4.35%.

FOMC minutes hawkishness & Fed rate probability shifts The release of the July FOMC meeting minutes revealed a distinctly hawkish division among Federal Reserve officials, highlighted by three dissents favoring an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike and strong warnings regarding upside risks to inflation. Despite this hawkish rhetoric, the foreign exchange market reacted with broad, modest U.S. dollar selling as traders largely dismissed the minutes as backward-looking. Investors prioritized subsequent economic data showing cooling inflation and job losses over the Fed’s July sentiments, shifting their focus toward upcoming commentary at the Jackson Hole Symposium for clearer forward-looking guidance.

CME Fed watch tool – FOMC September 2026 meeting probabilities
Source: CME Group Past performance is not indicative of future results

The CME FedWatch tool chart shows that after plunging to a multi-month low near 20% in late July, the market-implied probability of a 350–375 bps target rate at the September 16, 2026, meeting rebounded sharply throughout August. The probability climbed back toward the 60%–70% range by August 21st, reflecting shifting interest rate expectations as traders recalibrated the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in response to incoming economic data and central bank communications over the month.

Major currency pair dynamics relative to the U.S. dollar

Source: Tradingview.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Over the past trading week (August 17–21), major currencies rallied sharply against the U.S. dollar, driven by a broad mid-week greenback sell-off on August 19 as markets looked past hawkish Fed minutes toward cooler U.S. economic data. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) led gains across the board, extending its advance to +1.57% after recovering aggressively from early-week lows. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) followed with a +1.33% gain, while the Euro (EUR/USD) held solid strength at +1.01%. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) rose +0.82%, supported by earlier domestic inflation strength, and the British Pound (GBP/USD) settled at a +0.80% gain as major pairs maintained their elevated levels heading into the end of the week.

Conclusion In summary, the week of August 17–21 highlighted diverging monetary policy dynamics and shifting market expectations across major central banks. While Canada’s headline CPI uptick provides short-term support for CAD despite underlying disinflation, Australia’s cooling labor market contrasts with persistent core inflation, keeping the RBA on a cautious hold. Meanwhile, markets largely looked past hawkish FOMC minutes and priced in a higher probability of September Fed rate cuts, driven by softer economic indicators, driving broad gains across major currency pairs relative to the U.S. dollar.

Footnotes https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/subjects-start/prices_and_price_indexes/consumer_price_indexes

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/

https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/futures-market/rba-rate-tracker

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

MarketPulsehttps://www.marketpulse.com/

MarketPulse is a forex, commodities, and global indices research, analysis, and news site providing timely and accurate information on major economic trends, technical analysis, and worldwide events that impact different asset classes and investors. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.

Hey everyone, I hope you're doing well. In this article, I want to discuss crude oil and USDCAD.

As you know, crude oil is still in a very nice recovery mode. In fact, we can see that crude oil has room for further strength here since it completed an ABC pullback at around $74.50, and it looks like more upside is in the cards, at least towards $95, maybe even the $100 area.

crude oilSo while energy is trading to the upside, we know that the Canadian dollar could do pretty well, and this is even more important for the bearish trend on USDCAD, especially if we consider the recent strong leg down in the dollar across the board.

When looking at USDCAD, we therefore anticipate more weakness. In fact, looking at the subdivisions, it seems like we are still in the middle of this bearish impulsive cycle, so there could be opportunities on the short side after a fourth-wave rebound. Looking at some key levels, maybe wave three is coming to an end down here at the 161.8% extension, but resistance on a rebound is at 1.3840–1.3911, which could be quite an interesting and attractive area to look for potential opportunities on the short side while the market trades below the important 1.4000 round figure.

USDCADGet Full Access To Our Premium Elliott Wave Analysis For 14 Days. Click here.

By

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Published: Aug 20, 2026, 16:47 GMT+00:00

$1.16738

0.00%

Key Points:GBP/USD moved higher as rally continued. USD/CAD pulled back as traders reacted to the rally in the oil markets. USD/JPY rebounded towards 159.00 as traders focused on rising Treasury yields.

EUR/USD

0.00%

EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD

+0.22%

GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD

-0.14%

USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY

+0.46%

USD/JPY Forecast

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Traders Buy The Dip

DXY 200826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index attempts to rebound after the strong sell-off, which was triggered by Treasury’s decision to boost buybacks of long-dated bonds.

Today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Treasury could increase buybacks to more than $4 billion per issue.

Traders also focused on the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 206,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 210,000.

U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle below the support level at 98.60 – 98.75 and is moving towards the 99.00 level. In case U.S. Dollar Index climbs above 99.00, it will head towards the nearest resistance at 99.25 – 99.40. A move above 99.40 will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the 50 MA at 99.58.

EUR/USD Is Mostly Flat Amid Profit-Taking EUR/USD 200826 4h Chart EUR/USD is mostly flat as traders take some profits off the table and react to Germany’s PPI report. The report indicated that PPI increased by +3% year-over-year, compared to analyst forecast of +2.7%.

From the technical point of view, EUR/USD attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700. If EUR/USD moves above the 1.1700 level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1775 – 1.1790.

GBP/USD Tests Resistance At 1.3635 – 1.3650 GBP/USD 200826 4h Chart GBP/USD tested new highs as rally continued. Traders bet that Treasury’s bond buybacks will put additional pressure on the American currency.

Currently, GBP/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3635 – 1.3650. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3720 – 1.3735 range.

USD/CAD Tests New Lows

USD/CAD 200826 4h Chart USD/CAD remains under pressure as traders focus on rising oil prices. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.

In Canada, traders focus on the New Housing Price Index report. The report showed that new housing prices decreased by -0.1% month-over-month in July, compared to analsyt forecast of 0%.

The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.3735 – 1.3750. A successful test of this level will push USD/CAD towards the support level at 1.3635 – 1.3650.

On the upside, a move above the 1.3800 level will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.3825 – 1.3840. RSI has recently moved out of the oversold territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 200826 4h Chart USD/JPY rebounds as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.20% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasrueis settled above 4.70%. Treasury yields are moving higher despite Bessent’s efforts to push them lower as bond traders remain worried about long-term rate outlook.

If USD/JPY climbs above the 50 MA at 159.18, it will move towards the nearest resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. A move above 160.00 will push USD/JPY towards the 162.00 level. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to intervene in case USD/JPY climbs above the psychologically important 160.00 level.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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The US dollar has come under moderate pressure as long-term US Treasury yields have declined. Another factor has been the US Treasury Department’s decision to increase buyback operations for securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years in an effort to support market liquidity. Against this backdrop, the 30-year Treasury yield fell by around 9 basis points to 5.19%.

The decline in yields has weakened one of the key sources of support for the dollar and has been particularly significant for USD/JPY, which remains highly sensitive to movements in the US bond market.

The recently released FOMC minutes provided a counterweight. The minutes revealed growing concerns among policymakers about inflation risks, with several officials favouring a rate hike as early as the July meeting. This kept the overall tone relatively hawkish. Although policymakers were divided over whether an immediate rate increase was necessary, inflation risks remain a central concern for the Federal Reserve, while future decisions will continue to depend on incoming economic data.

Today, markets will focus on a fresh batch of US economic figures. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 24.1 from 41.4, while initial jobless claims are forecast at 210,000. Weaker-than-expected figures could put additional pressure on the dollar, whereas resilient data may allow the currency to recover some of its recent losses.

For the Canadian dollar, commodity-price data will provide an additional catalyst. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) is expected to decline by 1.8% following a 6.9% drop in the previous month, making the actual reading potentially important for the further direction of USD/CAD.

USD/JPY USD/JPY made several unsuccessful attempts to approach the key 160.00 resistance level before sharply retreating towards 158.00 as US Treasury yields declined.

If selling pressure on the dollar persists, the pair could move towards the 156.70–157.20 area. At the same time, a corrective rebound following yesterday’s decline could lift the pair towards 158.60–159.20.

Key events for USD/JPY:

today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims; tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): Japan national core Consumer Price Index (CPI).

USD/CAD USD/CAD remains in a broader downtrend following the formation of a “tower” pattern in early July. Yesterday, sellers tested the important 1.3800 support level.

A sustained break below yesterday’s low could open the way towards 1.3730–1.3760. If 1.3800 continues to hold as support, however, the pair could stage a recovery towards 1.3840–1.3870.

Key events for USD/CAD:

today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI); today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US Leading Economic Indicators; tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian core retail sales.

Outlook USD/JPY and USD/CAD remain caught between opposing fundamental forces. Falling Treasury yields are weighing on the dollar, while the relatively hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes is limiting the scope for a deeper decline.

The market’s attention is now turning to the latest US economic data. Weaker figures could extend the dollar’s correction and increase downside pressure on USD/JPY and USD/CAD, while stronger-than-expected releases could restore support for the US currency and trigger a recovery in both pairs.

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The US Dollar (USD) resumes its broader bearish trend with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) drawing support from higher Oil prices and a deal with the US to pause 50% tariffs on Canadian exports. The USD/CAD pair returns to levels below 1.3880, following rejection at the 1.3900 area, with bears eyeing the support zone at 1.3850.

US and Canada reached a last-minute deal earlier on Wednesday to delay imposing new tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods for three days, as negotiations towards a trade agreement advance.

Beyond that, Oil prices, Canada’s main export, keep growing as the US-Iran peace process remains stalled and markets brace for an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Oil appreciated beyond 6% over the last three days, returning to the $90.00 area, which hints at higher trade revenues for Canada.

Technical Analysis: Support at the 200-day SMA is on focus

USD/CAD trades at 1.3876, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias with momentum indicators in the daily chart deeply into bearish territory. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 32, just above oversold levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is well below zero, highlighting solid downside pressure.

Dips have been supported at the confluence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the bottom of the descending channel, in the 1.3850 area, but the rejection at 1.3900 confirmed that bears are in charge. Further down, the next target would be the late May lows in the 1.3770 area.

On the topside, the 1.3900 level should be broken to ease bearish pressure and clear the path towards a previous support area and the channel top, near the 1.4000 level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.13%-0.27%-0.17%0.24%0.11%-0.15%EUR0.16%0.01%-0.11%0.03%0.38%0.24%0.02%GBP0.13%-0.01%-0.11%-0.01%0.39%0.24%-0.02%JPY0.27%0.11%0.11%0.11%0.49%0.35%0.10%CAD0.17%-0.03%0.00%-0.11%0.38%0.24%-0.01%AUD-0.24%-0.38%-0.39%-0.49%-0.38%-0.13%-0.37%NZD-0.11%-0.24%-0.24%-0.35%-0.24%0.13%-0.24%CHF0.15%-0.02%0.02%-0.10%0.00%0.37%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

Trump delays threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian goods
US-Canada deal puts Keystone XL pipeline back on the table
USD/CAD tariff tail risk materially reduced
As alluded to in a separate analysis piece released on Tuesday, one of the key headwinds overhanging USD/CAD was the status of tariff negotiations between the United States and Canada. Well, it looks like Donald Trump has brought TACO to the tariff negotiations.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said the slated 50% tariffs on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods, which had been due to kick in tomorrow morning, have now been postponed for three days. More importantly, he said the two sides, subject to the finalisation of documents, “have a DEAL!”

Source: Truth Social

Of note, after repeated setbacks in trying to secure cheaper energy from the Gulf, energy infrastructure looks to be at the centre of the agreement. With talks between the United States and Iran now effectively dead, Trump appears to be looking north for another route to eventually deliver lower US energy prices. He immediately linked the tariff reprieve to the Keystone XL pipeline.

Trump approved the project during his first term, only for the Democrats to pull the plug after returning to power. Now, more than five years later, it looks like it may be back on the table.

Bullish reversal risk recedes

Source: TradingView

Having flagged bullish reversal risks a little over 24 hours ago, USD/CAD did pop higher on Tuesday, with the close roughly in line with the midpoint of Monday’s bearish candle, completing a three-candle morning star reversal pattern in the process.

However, the latest news flow immediately raises questions about the validity of that signal, with USD/CAD pulling back from minor horizontal resistance at 1.3910. The pair remains stuck in a narrow range between that level on the topside and a support zone running from 1.3870 down to the 200-day moving average at 1.3851. Those are the two immediate focal points for traders.

Given the reaction to the tariff news, the risk of a resumption of the broader bearish trend may be increasing, putting the emphasis on a potential break beneath the lower end of that support zone. If that were to occur, 1.3775 is the first level to watch, followed by a more pronounced support zone around 1.3714, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2024 to January 2025 bull move. That area has seen plenty of work over recent months, acting as resistance for lengthy periods earlier this year.

If the bullish price signal proves more prescient, the immediate focal point above 1.3910 is the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3919, where the price bounced on several occasions before breaking lower earlier this week. A break above would put horizontal resistance at 1.3967 in play, with 1.3991 another minor level overhead before the broader downtrend from the July highs comes into play.

The message from the oscillators still favours selling into strength. RSI (14) continues to trend lower and sits marginally above oversold territory at 32, while MACD confirms the message, continuing to trend lower in negative territory after crossing its signal line from above.

FOMC minutes loom

The FOMC minutes from the July meeting screen as the most likely fundamental catalyst to determine the next move in USD/CAD. With Fed tightening expectations having been pared sharply following the recent run of softer US data, traders will be watching for signs of whether the hawkish dissents seen at the meeting extended more broadly across the committee.

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Referenced assets

Key takeaways FOMC Policy: Markets await the August 19 minutes for clarity on whether the Fed will prioritize cooling labor market momentum or persistent inflation risks.Canada CPI: Headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% on energy costs, while core inflation remained steady. The BoC is expected to hold rates at 2.25% on September 2.USD/CAD Technicals: Price action is testing a critical support confluence (long-term SMA200, monthly S2, weekly S1) with the RSI indicating oversold conditions at 29.24. FOMC meeting minutes Market participants are looking ahead to the publication of the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, August 19, seeking insight into the central bank’s debate on future interest rate moves following its 9–3 decision to keep the benchmark target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Although these discussions occurred before the August 7 non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, analysts will examine the text to determine whether persistent inflation risks or cooling labor market momentum—underscored by slowing hiring and an unexpected drop of 23,000 jobs in July—will play a larger role in shaping the Fed’s decision at the September meeting.

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Market expectations for the federal reserve policy rates Source: CME Group - CME Fedwatch tool, conditional meetings probabilities. Past performance is not indicative of future results As of August 17th, 2026, market expectations for Federal Reserve policy rates reflect a shift toward a higher-for-longer regime driven by persistent inflation concerns and economic resilience. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in conditional meeting probabilities that favor maintaining or slightly adjusting the benchmark interest rate target range. For the September 16, 2026, meeting, the market indicates a 63.4% probability that the target rate will settle in the 350–375 basis points (3.50%–3.75%) range, with a 36.6% probability that it will settle in the 375–400 basis points range. Moving toward the end of the year, the highest probability shifts slightly upward to the 375–400 basis points range, coming in at 45.3% for the December 9, 2026, meeting (with a 31.7% chance remaining at 350–375 bps and 20.3% at 400–425 bps). Looking further out into 2027, the central tendency of market expectations remains firmly anchored around the 375–400 bps target rate—holding probabilities near 35% to 43% through late 2027—suggesting that market participants foresee limited monetary easing and expect interest rates to remain relatively steady rather than returning to lower levels.

Canada consumer price index (CPI) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. - Canada CPI - All items, weighted median and trimmed mean Past performance is not indicative of future results. Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released by Statistics Canada, showed that while the headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% year-over-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation metrics remained largely muted, suggesting that the headline increase was driven by volatile factors rather than broad-based price pressures. Specifically, the CPI-Median rose slightly to 2.0% from 1.9%, while the CPI-Trim held steady at 1.9%, both filtering out extreme price volatility to provide a clearer view of underlying trends.

The jump in headline inflation to 3.0% reduces the immediate likelihood of a rate cut or a hike at the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) upcoming September 2nd meeting. With Canada’s unemployment rate sitting around 6.5%, raising interest rates in a cooling labor market to combat oil shocks may risk over-tightening. According to the Montreal Exchange, BoC is expected to keep the interest rate at its current level of 2.25%.

USD/CAD daily chart technical analysis Source: Tradingview.com - USD/CAD daily chart Past performance is not indicative of future results. Following a breakout below an ascending channel in early 2025, the USD/CAD price action traded within a narrowing formation, as marked by the red lines on the chart.Price action continued to find support and resistance along the formation’s lower and upper boundaries throughout its duration till June 2026.In May 2026, price action began a sharp trend, as marked by the black line on the chart. In June 2026, the price broke above the upper boundary of the narrowing price action, reaching a high of 1.4240. However, in July, it broke below the trend and completed a pullback to its extension, followed by a steep decline that pierced multiple critical support levels.The break took the price below the monthly PP of 1.4081, the monthly S1 of 1.3923, the weekly PP of 1.3901, the fast EMA9, and the intermediate SMA 50.Currently, price action is attempting to hold above a key technical support confluence formed by the long-term SMA, the monthly S2 at 1.3833, and the weekly S1 at 1.3837.A secondary support level sits below, defined by the extension of the aforementioned formation’s upper red border line.The 14-period RSI moves in tandem with price action, sitting in oversold territory at 29.24. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
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About the Author

Moheb Hanna Market Analyst

With over 15 years' experience in the forex markets, on both the research and client relations sides, Moheb specialises in technical, trade-focused market analysis. He has worked at a number of top financial institutions, publishing daily commentary and driving sales for retail and institutional clients. A CMT Charter member, Moheb holds a globally recognised CFTe designation.

With over 15 years' experience in the forex markets, on both the research and client relations sides, Moheb specialises in technical, trade-focused market analysis. He has worked at a number of top financial institutions, publishing daily commentary and driving sales for retail and institutional clients. A CMT Charter member, Moheb holds a globally recognised CFTe designation.

The Canadian Dollar reached its strongest level since 1 June after July CPI beat forecasts, although the advance later faded. The Canadian Dollar initially strengthened on Monday after headline inflation reached the top of the Bank of Canada’s target range, but the advance was not sustained.

Immediately after the 13:30 BST release, the Canadian currency was 0.17% firmer and USD/CAD traded near 1.3851.

USD/CAD subsequently touched 1.3845, marking the Canadian Dollar’s strongest level since 1 June, before recovering towards 1.3874 much later in the session and returning close to unchanged on the day.

Later ERUK exchange rates data placed GBP/CAD near 1.8790 and EUR/CAD around 1.6064, both slightly higher on the day.

A simultaneous release showed foreign investors bought a net C$40.83bn of Canadian securities in June, led by federal government bonds.

The Statistics Canada CPI release showed prices rising 3.0% year on year in July, up from 2.8% in June and above the 2.9% consensus forecast.

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, the index climbed 0.5% on the month, compared with expectations of 0.4%, while the seasonally adjusted increase was 0.3%.

Gasoline inflation accelerated to 25.7% from 20.5% as renewed US-Iran tensions lifted energy costs, while air transportation prices rose 12.0%.

Food bought from stores provided some relief, slowing to 3.1% from 3.9%, and shelter inflation remained contained at 1.3%.

Core Inflation Leaves a Two-Sided BoC Signal The Bank of Canada’s preferred year-on-year measures remained close to 2%, with CPI-trim at 1.9% and CPI-median at 2.0%.

That steadier six- and 12-month picture led BMO Economics senior economist and director Robert Kavcic to conclude that “the inflation side is looking stable and well-behaved despite a bit of heat in July”.

Shorter-term measures were firmer, however.

BMO calculated that the average three-month annualised pace across four core gauges rose to 2.5% from 2.0%.

The faster gauges prompted Scotiabank economist Derek Holt to warn that “measures like these lean against staying at the low end of the BoC’s neutral rate range”.

Scotiabank reported that markets priced 16 basis points of a possible quarter-point increase by year-end, although the annual core readings offered little basis for an immediate policy response.

Growth supplied the more favourable side of the outlook, with Royal Bank of Canada assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen and economist Abbey Xu describing “a relatively favourable combination of firming economic growth and underlying inflation close to target”.

Trade risks nevertheless complicated that view.

The RBC economists noted that new US duties on selected Canadian goods were due to take effect on 19 August, although their narrow coverage was unlikely to derail the broader recovery.

Image: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD and CAD/JPY around Canada’s July CPI release at 13:30 BST. At the Bank of Canada’s 2 September decision, policymakers will weigh firmer short-term core momentum against stable year-on-year gauges and renewed trade uncertainty.

By

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Published: Aug 17, 2026, 16:18 GMT+00:00

Key Points:EUR/USD tested multi-week highs as traders remained bullish. USD/CAD moved away from session lows as traders reacted to inflation data from Canada. USD/JPY remained stuck below the key resistance level as traders focused on Japan's GDP Growth Rate report.

EUR/USD

+0.13%

EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD

+0.11%

GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD

-0.03%

USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY

+0.09%

USD/JPY Forecast

U.S. Dollar Tested New Lows

DXY 170826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing some ground as traders reduce bets on hawkish Fed. Traders also focus on the NAHB Housing Market Index report for August. The report indicated that NAHB Housing Market Index increased from 34 in July to 35 in August, compared to analyst forecast of 33.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the support level at 99.25 – 99.40. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 99.25 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 98.60 – 98.75 range.

EUR/USD Tests Resistance At 1.1600 – 1.1615

EUR/USD 170826 4h Chart EUR/USD gained ground as traders focused on general weakness of the American currency. Treasury yields were mixed. The yield of 2-year Treasuries pulled back below the 4.17% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.70%.

The nearest resistance level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1600 – 1.1615 range. in case EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1615 level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1685 – 1.1700. RSI has recently moved back into moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

GBP/USD Tests Multi-Week Highs GBP/USD 170826 4h Chart GBP/USD moved higher as traders remained bullish at the start of the week. Traders bet that Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at the next meeting in September.

From the technical point of view, GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. If GBP/USD climbs above the 1.3565 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3635 – 1.3650 range.

USD/CAD Moves Away From Session Lows As Traders Focus On Canada’s Inflation Data USD/CAD 170826 4h Chart USD/CAD attempts to rebound from multi-week lows as traders react to inflation data from Canada. Inflation Rate increased from 2.8% in June to 3% in July, compared to analyst forecast of 2.9%. Core Inflation Rate grew from 2.1% to 2.3%, compared to analyst consensus of 2.2%.

If USD/CAD settles back above the 1.3880 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance at 1.3920 – 1.3935. On the support side, a successful test of the support at 1.3825 – 1.3840 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3735 – 1.3750.

USD/JPY Is Mostly Flat As Japan’s GDP Growth Rate Misses Estimates

USD/JPY 170826 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck below the key resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00 as traders react to Japan’s GDP Growth Rate report. The report showed that GDP Growth Rate was +0.3% in the second quarter, compared to analyst forecast of +0.5%.

Traders are focused on Fed policy outlook and are worried about potential interventions from the BoJ. The Japanese yen is fundamentally weak due to the difference in interest rates, but recent interventions have made traders cautious.

If USD/JPY climbs above the 160.00 level, it will move towards the next resistance level at 161.50 – 162.00. A move above the 162.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the 164.00 level.

On the support side, a move below the 50 MA at 158.79 will open the way to the test of the nearest support level at 157.50 – 158.00.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

Latest news and analysis

USD/CAD extends its decline farther below 1.4000 on Friday and heads for a third consecutive weekly loss. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3877, at levels last seen in early July.

The recent strength in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is driven by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness and relatively stronger Canadian economic data, while elevated Oil prices provide underlying support to the commodity-linked Loonie.

Monetary policy expectations remain in focus. In the US, moderating inflation, weaker consumer spending and signs of labour market softness have lowered the chances of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike next month. Across the border, next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will provide a fresh update on inflation and its possible impact on the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) policy path.

BoC seen prioritising soft core inflation as output gap closes only graduallyAccording to TD Securities, the Bank of Canada is likely to place greater emphasis on the “softer trajectory for core inflation” at its 2 September decision, noting that the limited “passthrough from higher oil prices gives it more scope to continue looking through the energy shock.” The bank adds that the “recent deceleration across core inflation measures also helps to validate the Bank's assessment around excess supply and capacity to absorb stronger growth amid the rebound in Q2 GDP tracking.”

In TD’s view, this backdrop “should allow the Bank of Canada to stick to its recent messaging next month, with a focus on softer underlying inflation and the gradual timeline to close the output gap.”

Technical analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD maintains a steady downtrend, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows since reversing from above 1.4200 in late June. The pair subsequently slipped below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the latest leg lower has pushed it beneath the 100-day SMA.

The Relative Strength Index (14) around 29 signals oversold conditions and warns that downside momentum may be stretched even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory.

On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the 200-day SMA close to 1.3850, ahead of a more substantial horizontal floor at 1.3700, with a deeper bearish extension exposing the structural level at 1.3542.

On the topside, a recovery attempt would first face resistance at the 100-day SMA at 1.3920, with any stronger rebound likely capped by the higher 50-day SMA at 1.4077 unless sellers lose control of the medium-term trend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.31%-0.35%-0.08%-0.39%-0.29%-0.59%-0.14%EUR0.31%-0.04%0.22%-0.10%0.02%-0.30%0.17%GBP0.35%0.04%0.28%-0.08%0.06%-0.24%0.22%JPY0.08%-0.22%-0.28%-0.30%-0.21%-0.54%-0.04%CAD0.39%0.10%0.08%0.30%0.10%-0.20%0.26%AUD0.29%-0.02%-0.06%0.21%-0.10%-0.30%0.16%NZD0.59%0.30%0.24%0.54%0.20%0.30%0.48%CHF0.14%-0.17%-0.22%0.04%-0.26%-0.16%-0.48%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

NZD/USD rallies to 0.5888, pushing above both EMAs and approaching the 0.5900 resistance level. Source: TradingView
The New Zealand dollar looks very much the same, hanging around the 0.59 level. It looks like it’s struggling a bit over the last hour or so. Pullback wouldn’t be the most shocking thing here either. Quite frankly, though, this one has been in a relatively tight range for a while, so we’re now getting to the top of the consolidation area that we had broken out of. A lot of noisy trading, but New Zealand is highly sensitive to what goes on in the Strait of Hormuz, especially from an energy standpoint, and right now there isn’t much going on, so I think that is one concern.

The RBNZ is expected to raise rates again, but so is the Federal Reserve. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. Recently, the US economic numbers have been a little softer. People are starting to temper down the bets on the Fed raising rates, so that’s part of what’s going on here.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis