Key Points:EUR/USD gained some ground as traders reacted to PMI reports. GBP/USD moved higher, supported by stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales. USD/JPY continued its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 163.50 - 164.00.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Oil Pulls Back
DXY 240726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders focus on the pullback in the oil markets. WTI oil declined towards the $88.00 level as traders hoped that U.S. and Iran will get back to negotiations. Falling oil prices reduced demand for safe-haven assets, which was bearish for the American currency.
Today, traders also focused on PMI reports. Manufacturing PMI declined from 53.9 in June to 53.8 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 54.3. Services PMI improved from 51.2 to 53.6, compared to analyst consensus of 51.5. Numbers above 50 show expansion.
EUR/USD Gains Gound As Euro Area PMI Reports Exceed Estimates
EUR/USD 240726 4h Chart EUR/USD attempts to rebound as traders focus on better-than-expected PMI data from the EU. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.4 in June to 52.0 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 51.5. Euro Area Services PMI improved from 49.4 to 51.6, compared to analyst consensus of 49.8.
The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1350 level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.1270 – 1.1285.
GBP/USD Gains Ground As UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates GBP/USD 240726 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving higher as UK Manufacturing PMI and UK Services PMI exceeded analyst estimates. Falling oil prices provided additional support to the British pound. Better-than-expected Retail Sales report served as an additional positive catalyst for GBP/USD. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +1% month-over-month in June.
Currently, GBP/USD is trying to settle back above the resistance level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3414. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/CAD Is Mostly Flat As Traders Focus On Commodity Markets USD/CAD 240726 4h Chart USD/CAD is mostly flat despite the rebound in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are moving higher in today’s trading session.
In case USD/CAD pulls back below the 50 MA at 1.4061, it will head towards the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025.
On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. A move above the 1.4140 level will push USD/CAD towards the next resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.
USD/JPY Tests Resistance At 163.50 – 164.00 USD/JPY 240726 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck near the 164.00 level as traders react to inflation data from Japan. Inflation Rate increased from 1.5% in May to 1.7% in June, in line with analyst consensus. Core inflation Rate increased from 1.4% to 1.6%. The report has also met analyst estimates.
From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 163.50 – 164.00. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above the 164.00 level, it will head towards the psychologically important 165.00 level. These levels have not been tested since 1986. RSI is in the overbought territory, but there is some room to gain additional momentum in the near term.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory near 1.4075 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East boost crude oil prices, supporting the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).
Oil prices spiked after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening a key export route that Saudi Arabia has used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that the US would hold Iran responsible for the Houthis’ actions and warned that Iran and its Houthi allies would both soon receive a “major military punishment.”
It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.
The preliminary readings of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be in the spotlight later on Friday. If the report shows stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could help limit the Greenback’s losses in the near term.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, USD/CAD keeps the bullish vibe, with the price holding above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, the pair slips back under the 20-day Bollinger SMA, signaling a loss of immediate topside traction after the recent spike. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 47.9 sits just below the midline, hinting at directionless momentum in the near term as neither bulls nor bears currently dominate.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.4130, ahead of a stronger barrier at the upper Bollinger Band near 1.4262. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at approximately 1.4000 offers the first line of support, with the 100-day SMA at 1.3875 reinforcing a deeper demand zone if selling pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Us trade comments ease concern over Canada tariffsStrategists at Scotiabank highlight a more constructive tone from US officials on the latest tariff measures, noting that US Trade Representative Greer “offered some hope that the latest tariff blast from Washington would not undermine US/Canada trade relations in the long run and that talks could make progress towards a broader agreement before year-end.” This, they suggest, helps temper market anxiety around the bilateral trade outlook even as currency markets continue to track the broader US Dollar trend.
Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate is trading around 1.4082, little changed on the day after easing from levels above 1.42 earlier in July. The pair reached a monthly low near 1.4004, having previously climbed to a 2026 high around 1.4248 in June.
Scotiabank believes the Canadian Dollar is largely tracking broader movements in the US currency, with USD/CAD currently trading close to the bank’s estimated fair value of 1.4013.
The bank noted that comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer offered some reassurance that the latest tariff measures would not permanently damage US-Canada commercial relations.
Greer also indicated that negotiations could make progress towards a broader agreement before the end of the year, helping limit renewed pressure on the Canadian Dollar.
Domestic attention is focused on Canadian retail sales, which are expected to have risen 1.0% in May, matching the preliminary estimate published alongside April’s figures.
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank describes the outlook as neutral. USD/CAD is pivoting around its 40-day moving average at 1.4074, with neither side showing enough momentum to force a decisive break.
The bank identifies initial support at 1.4060 and resistance at 1.4125. A sustained move below support would strengthen the case for further Canadian Dollar gains, while a break above resistance would suggest the recent USD rebound has further to run.
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back below the 1.1400 level as traders reacted to ECB Interest Rate Decision. GBP/USD moved lower as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/JPY tested multi-decade higher amid rising Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Rising Demand For Safe-Haven Assets
DXY 230726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets and react to the better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims report.
The report indicated that 187,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 212,000.
Oil prices gained 6.5% as Houthis attacked vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. Brent oil climbed above the psychologically important $100 level. As a result, demand for safe-haven assets increased, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.
U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30 and is trying to settle above the 101.50 level. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level at 101.80 – 101.95.
EUR/USD Retreats As ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged EUR/USD 230726 4h Chart EUR/USD is losing ground as traders react to ECB Interest Rate Decision. The European Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged at 2.4%, in line with analyst estimates.
Comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde showed that ECB was ready to raise rates in September due to high oil prices.
Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.1350 – 1.1365. In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will head towards the next support level at 1.1270 – 1.1285.
GBP/USD Tests New Lows As Oil Prices Rally GBP/USD 230726 4h Chart GBP/USD is under pressure as traders focus on the potential impact of high oil prices. Demand for risk assets declined, which was bearish for the British pound.
From the technical point of view, GBP/USD moved below the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350 and is trying to settle below the 1.3300 level. If GBP/USD manages to settle below 1.3300, it will head towards the support at 1.3250 – 1.3265. RSI has just moved into oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain additional momentum in the near term.
USD/CAD 230726 4h Chart USD/CAD is mostly flat as traders react to developments in commodity markets. Precious metals markets suffered a sell-off while oil markets soared. Other commodity-related currencies pulled back in today’s trading session.
Today, traders also focused on the Retail Sales report from Canada. The report showed that Retail Sales increased by +0.4% month-over-month in June, in line with analyst estimates.
If USD/CAD manages to settle back above the 1.4100 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140 range. A move above the 1.4140 level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.4235 – 1.4250.
USD/JPY Tests Multi-Decade Highs USD/JPY 230726 4h Chart USD/JPY tests new highs as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.35% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.70%. Rising oil prices serve as a major negative catalyst for the Japanese yen as Japan’s economy is dependent on energy imports.
Currently, USD/JPY is trying to settle above the 164.00 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 164.00, it will head towards the 165.00 level. It should be noted that RSI is in the overbought territory, so the risks of a pullback are rising.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Multi-Timeframe Analysis USD/CAD technical analysis shows the Canadian dollar stalling in a tight range after an eight of nine week rally, with a clean breakout now in focus. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, walks through the USD/CAD setup across the weekly, daily, and four-hour charts and the levels that matter most. Boutros explains why momentum has quieted after the rally, what would confirm a larger reversal versus a resumption of the downtrend, and how the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision and core PCE inflation reading could steer the U.S. dollar. With oil prices climbing on renewed Middle East tensions, the inflation outlook stays front and center.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Key USD/CAD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Rising crude oil prices and a weakening greenback pushed USD/CAD back below 1.4100, threatening a return to its July downward channel Central bank divergence remains a risk, as a cautious Bank of Canada (BoC) and hawkish Federal Reserve could limit further loonie gains The Bank of Canada’s steady policy rate keeps interest rate differentials tilted in favor of greenback dip-buyers on deeper pullbacks The US dollar briefly halted the Canadian dollar’s recent climb earlier this week. But it started falling again yesterday and still looks weak today. Now trading below 1.4100, around 1.4080, investors wonder if USD/CAD will return to the steady decline it had between late June and mid-July.
What Broke the Downtrend The brief pause in the downtrend had a clear cause. On Monday, the US administration announced new 50% tariffs on various Canadian goods, including wine, dairy, and cement. This action was stated as a response to what the US described as discriminatory practices against American products in Canada.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called this the latest in a series of unilateral US trade actions. He said Canada had “merely matched” prior US measures. Headlines like that usually hit the loonie first and hardest, which explains why the dollar strengthened Monday and Tuesday.
What Is Driving the Loonie’s Rebound? A significant increase in global crude oil prices is the primary driver behind the Canadian dollar’s resurgence. As a major exporter of commodities, Canada benefits directly from rising crude prices. Oil prices have reached new multi-week highs, which has helped to offset recent domestic challenges and provide strong fundamental support for the Canadian dollar.
Potential Risks Beneath the Surface Despite the current trend, a return to a consistent downtrend is not guaranteed. The tariffs announced on Monday will take effect in 30 days. If trade tensions escalate further before then, sentiment towards Canadian assets could shift negatively, irrespective of oil prices or interest rate movements.
While the current trend favors a stronger Canadian dollar, underlying risks require careful assessment. Uncertainties surrounding the USMCA trade agreement renewal and potential tariff discussions remain significant factors that could strengthen the US dollar if tensions increase.
Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Canada (BoC) might maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, influenced by recent lower domestic consumer price index (CPI) figures. In contrast, persistent US inflation data suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its restrictive monetary policy for a longer period.
Investors should consider USD/CAD with a balanced view. Those expecting further gains in the Canadian dollar might explore strategies that leverage CAD strength, such as hedging US dollar exposure or investing in Canadian assets sensitive to commodity prices.
Effective risk management remains crucial. Diversification and close attention to central bank statements, oil market developments, and trade news will be essential for navigating market fluctuations. Adopting a flexible approach that adapts to evolving data, rather than making large directional bets, is likely to better serve long-term investment goals.
Is USD/CAD returning to its prior downward channel?
The recent weakness in the US dollar suggests a potential return to the late June to mid-July downtrend if current momentum continues.
What risks could impact USD/CAD trajectory?
Trade tensions related to the USMCA, geopolitical shocks in the energy sector, and differing monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada present notable risks of upward movement for the pair.
How do central bank interest rate expectations affect the USD/CAD outlook?
A potentially cautious Bank of Canada alongside a hawkish Federal Reserve could limit severe downside losses for USD/CAD.
Key Points:EUR/USD gained some ground ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision.USD/CAD moved lower as precious metals markets rallied. USD/JPY remained stuck near the 163.00 level.
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U.S. Dollar Index Is Stuck Near Resistance At 101.15 – 101.30
DXY 220726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing some ground despite rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled above 4.30%, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries moved above 4.65%. Oil prices continue to move higher, but U.S. dollar does not get additional support.
From the technical point of view, U.S. Dollar Index is stuck below the resistance level at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range.
EUR/USD Attempts To Rebound Ahead Of ECB Decision
EUR/USD 220726 4h Chart EUR/USD gains some ground ahead of ECB Interest Rate Decision, which will be released tomorrow. Analysts expect that ECB will leave the interest rate unchanged at 2.4%. The deposit facility rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.25%.
In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the resistance level at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1500 – 1.1515 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Pulls Back As Traders Focus On UK Inflation Data GBP/USD 220726 4h Chart GBP/USD is losing ground as traders focus on inflation data from the UK. Inflation Rate declined from 2.8% in May to 2.6% in June, compared to analyst forecast of 2.7%. Core Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 2.6%, while analysts expected that it would drop to 2.5%.
The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range. A move below the 1.3335 level will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
On the upside, GBP/USD needs to settle above the 1.3400 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. If GBP/USD climbs above 1.3400, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3424. A move above the 50 MA will push GBP/USD towards the resistance at 1.3450 – 1.3465.
USD/CAD 220726 4h Chart USD/CAD pulled back as traders focused on the rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed towards the $4150 level, while silver moved towards the psychologically important $60.00 level. Other commodity-related currencies are losing ground in today’s trading session.
If USD/CAD declines below the 50 MA at 1.4075, it will move towards the support level, which is located in the 1.4010 – 1.4025 range.
On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140 will push USD/CAD towards the resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.
USD/JPY Is Stuck Near 163.00 USD/JPY 220726 4h Chart USD/JPY settled near the 163.00 level as traders worried about potential interventions from the Bank of Japan.
Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Exports report from Japan. The report indicated that Japan’s Exports increased by +19.3% year-over-year, compared to analyst consensus of +18.6%.
In case USD/JPY settles above 163.00, it will head towards the 165.00 level. RSI has recently moved back into moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Short-term Trade Levels USD/CAD rebounds from near-term downtrend support after posting an outside-day reversal Monday. The recovery is now challenging the upper boundary of the July downtrend- breakout needed to confirm a more significant low is in place. Rejection at current levels would keep the broader corrective decline intact. Next week's FOMC decision and June PCE inflation data could provide the next major catalyst. Resistance 1.4097-1.4109 (key), 1.4155, 1.4197-1.4202- Support 1.4045, 1.4020 (key), 1.3978/82 USD/CAD is consolidating just below major resistance after a powerful multi-week rally carried the pair into fresh yearly highs. The tight range highlights a market coiling for its next directional move, with the July opening range now taking shape beneath a key technical barrier. With momentum still elevated, a breakout here could either fuel the next leg of the broader uptrend or trigger the first meaningful reversal signal since the May advance began. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook, we noted that, “A five-week rally has stalled into the May uptrend with the USD/CAD trading in a well-defined range just below resistance into the start of the month. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.4109 IF price is heading higher on this stretch...” The range broke nearly two-weeks later with USD/CAD plunging more than 1.7% off the yearly high to break below the May trendline. The decline rebounded off near-term downtrend support on Monday with price marking an outside day reversal off the low. The recovery is now testing resistance at the upper bounds of the monthly downtrend, and the focus is on possible inflection off this pivot zone in the days ahead.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Canadian Dollar price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the monthly high with the recent recovery now testing the upper parallel. Note that the 38.2% retracement of the July decline converges on the November high-day close at 1.4097-1.4109. A breach / daily close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term low is in place and invalidate the monthly downtrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement at 1.4155 and the monthly open / high-day close (HDC) at 1.4197-1.4202. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a weekly close above the 2025 March lows at 1.4235/39 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the yearly uptrend.
Initial support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the weekly range at 1.4045 and is backed by the objective weekly open at 1.4020. Note that this level converges on the median line into the close of the week and losses below this slope would threaten resumption of the July downtrend. The next major technical considerations are eyed at the 2022 high and the 38.2% retracement of the May rally at 1.3978/82.
Bottom line: USD/CAD is now testing multi-week downtrend resistance, and the focus is on possible inflection off this zone with the near-term long-bias vulnerable while below. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.4109 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally. Losses below 1.3978 would suggest a more significant correction is underway.
Keep in mind, the U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet ahead of next week's FOMC rate decision and the release of June PCE inflation data. Stay nimble into the Fed and watch the weekly closes for confirmation of the broader directional bias. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.
Key USD/CAD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Commodity-linked currencies remain under pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. The United States has maintained strikes on targets in Iran, while the Tehran-backed Houthis have intensified threats to shipping in the Red Sea and near key oil transit routes. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for traditional defensive assets, supporting the US dollar while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.
In the coming trading sessions, market participants will focus on Australia’s labour market report. Employment growth is expected to slow sharply, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Weaker-than-expected figures could add pressure to AUD/USD by reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may continue easing monetary policy.
For USD/CAD, attention will also turn to the weekly US crude oil inventory data. Although geopolitical developments continue to support oil prices, the outlook for commodity-linked currencies will depend not only on the direction of the energy market but also on incoming macroeconomic data and further developments in the Middle East.
AUD/USD AUD/USD has begun to lose upside momentum after testing the key resistance zone between 0.7000 and 0.7030. On the daily chart, a doji candlestick has formed, suggesting the pair could resume its decline towards the 0.6920–0.6870 area. However, a decisive break and close above 0.7030 could open the way for a further advance towards 0.7080–0.7100.
Key events for AUD/USD:
Tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australia Employment Change Tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australia Labour Force Participation Rate Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
USD/CAD USD/CAD has formed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern after rebounding sharply from the significant support level at 1.4000. The technical outlook suggests the pair could extend its recovery towards the 1.4170–1.4200 region if the pattern plays out. Conversely, a break below 1.4000 could expose the next downside target around 1.3900–1.3940.
Key events for USD/CAD:
Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Applications Index Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada Core Retail Sales
Overall, geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the US dollar while limiting the recovery of commodity-linked currencies. Over the coming days, the key drivers for AUD/USD and USD/CAD will be Australia’s labour market data, movements in oil prices, and further developments in the Middle East. If geopolitical risks remain elevated, the US dollar may continue to outperform. Conversely, easing tensions or weaker-than-expected US economic data could support a recovery in commodity-linked currencies.
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USD/CAD held near 1.4100 after extending its recovery, with traders watching the key 1.4115 resistance level. Safe-haven demand for the US dollar continues to outweigh support for the Canadian dollar from higher crude oil prices. A break above 1.4115 could strengthen bullish momentum, while oil prices and US economic data remain the next major catalysts. The USD/CAD exchange rate traded around 1.4101 on Tuesday after recovering steadily over the past several sessions, as renewed demand for the US dollar continued to offset the Canadian dollar’s traditional support from rising crude oil prices.
The pair has advanced despite Brent crude remaining above $90 per barrel, highlighting how geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher US interest rates have become the dominant drivers of currency markets.
Investors are now watching whether USD/CAD can break above 1.4115, a level that could determine whether the pair resumes its broader uptrend.
Why Is USD/CAD Rising Today? The US dollar has regained strength as investors continue to favour safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
The conflict has pushed oil prices sharply higher, raising concerns that inflation could remain elevated and encouraging expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates restrictive for longer.
Those expectations have supported US Treasury yields and increased demand for the dollar across the forex market.
Ordinarily, rising oil prices benefit the Canadian dollar because Canada is one of the world’s largest crude exporters. However, the current geopolitical environment has strengthened the US dollar by an even greater margin, allowing USD/CAD to continue climbing despite favourable conditions for the loonie.
How Do Higher Oil Prices Affect USD/CAD? Crude oil remains one of the most important drivers of the Canadian dollar.
When oil prices rise, Canada’s export revenues typically increase, improving the country’s trade balance and supporting the value of the Canadian dollar.
This week, however, that relationship has weakened.
Brent crude has remained above $90 per barrel after threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over global energy supplies. Instead of boosting the Canadian dollar, the oil rally has primarily fuelled inflation concerns, strengthening demand for the US dollar and limiting gains for commodity-linked currencies.
As long as geopolitical risks continue driving oil prices higher, the Canadian dollar may struggle to fully benefit from stronger energy markets.
Will USD/CAD Break Above 1.4115? The 1.4115 level has become the key technical hurdle for USD/CAD. ActionForex notes that a decisive move above this resistance would confirm that the recent pullback from 1.4247 has likely ended and increase the probability of another test of that July high.
Conversely, failure to break above 1.4115 could trigger short-term profit-taking after the pair’s recent rally. For now, the broader outlook remains constructive while the pair continues trading comfortably above the 1.3954 support area.
USD/CAD Outlook The short-term USD/CAD outlook remains tilted to the upside while the pair trades just below the key 1.4115 resistance level.
Although elevated oil prices would normally strengthen the Canadian dollar, safe-haven demand for the US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer continue to dominate market sentiment.
Whether USD/CAD extends its recovery will likely depend on upcoming US economic data, developments in the Middle East and the direction of crude oil prices. A convincing move above 1.4115 would strengthen the case for another attempt at 1.4247, while renewed strength in the Canadian dollar could limit further gains if oil prices continue climbing.
Why is USD/CAD rising today?
USD/CAD is rising as investors buy the US dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. Safe-haven demand has outweighed support for the Canadian dollar from stronger oil prices.
How do oil prices affect USD/CAD?
Higher oil prices usually strengthen the Canadian dollar because Canada is a major oil exporter. A stronger Canadian dollar typically pushes USD/CAD lower. However, during periods of heightened geopolitical risk, the US dollar can outperform despite rising crude prices.
Will USD/CAD break above 1.4115?
The 1.4115 level is the next key resistance for USD/CAD. A sustained break above this level could signal a continuation of the recent recovery and open the door for a retest of the 1.4247 high.
The USD/CAD pair remains on the back foot through the early European session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have stalled this week's goodish rebound from the 1.4000 psychological mark, or over a one-month low. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and currently trade around the 1.4100 mark, down only 0.05% for the day.
Hopes that the US-Iran diplomacy could ease energy prices and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep a lid on the US Dollar's (USD) four-day-old rally. Furthermore, rallying crude oil prices offer some support to the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. However, bets that the US central bank will hike interest rates in 2026 amid concerns about energy-driven inflation help limit the downside for the Greenback amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran.
From a technical perspective, the overnight strength beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the year-to-date high, touched in June, favors bullish traders. The USD/CAD pair now awaits a move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart before the next leg up. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60 hints at a constructive bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows the line above its signal with a modest positive histogram.
Improving momentum indicators together suggest bullish pressure that has yet to clear overhead structure. A sustained strength above the 200-period SMA at 1.4104 should pave the way for additional gains to the 50.0% retracement at 1.4128 and the 61.8% Fibo. level at 1.4158, with 1.4200 and 1.4253 marking deeper Fibonacci barriers into the recent swing high.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.4062, ahead of the structural floor near 1.4004. A convincing break below these levels would undermine the current consolidation and reopen a broader corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
Canadian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies this week. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.14%0.55%0.47%0.59%-0.43%0.24%0.49%EUR-0.14%0.41%0.26%0.45%-0.58%0.09%0.34%GBP-0.55%-0.41%-0.15%0.03%-0.98%-0.31%-0.03%JPY-0.47%-0.26%0.15%0.21%-0.85%-0.27%0.13%CAD-0.59%-0.45%-0.03%-0.21%-0.98%-0.48%-0.06%AUD0.43%0.58%0.98%0.85%0.98%0.68%0.95%NZD-0.24%-0.09%0.31%0.27%0.48%-0.68%0.29%CHF-0.49%-0.34%0.03%-0.13%0.06%-0.95%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
XAUUSD (the Gold) saw a lift as the yellow metal moved away from the critical 4000 support.
As the market remains volatile, with all eyes on Iran’s next move, prices look to break the 4100 level. Only a break above 4100, the top range of the current spike, might put the precious metal back on track towards 4140. Otherwise, a fall back towards the fresh support of 4000 would open the door to 3960.
USDCAD steadily climbing higher
The Canadian dollar attempts to turn around a potential fightback from the greenback.
The pair remains under pressure, as an 80-pip move higher has hit resistance after a rejection at 1.4080. The buy side is attempting to continue the drive, which saw a bounce from the 1.4000 region. A break past the current resistance at 1.4080 could see a continuation, with 1.4150 the next target for buyers. NZDUSD another higher high
The American dollar looks to fight back against most of its competitors as sentiment shifts again.
The price has been moving higher after a continuous upshift in price action for the majority of this month. 0.5820 is the latest support, and its breach would trigger a reversal of liquidation and make 0.5760 the next target. 0.5900 is fresh resistance, as an overbought RSI leads to a bearish divergence.
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It has not been an easy start to the week for the Canadian dollar. Now, renewed weakness in the currency is becoming evident, while USD/CAD has gained more than 0.6% over the last 2 trading sessions, reflecting U.S. dollar strength and a new loss of momentum in the CAD.
Although buying pressure in the pair had already started to emerge after the release of CPI inflation data in Canada, it has become more evident following recent comments about possible new tariffs on the country. This event has started to reduce confidence and could continue to affect the Canadian dollar in the short term, keeping relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few trading sessions.
Are new tariffs on the way? Recently, the United States announced a new package of tariffs on goods coming from Canada, with rates that could reach up to 50% of the value of some products, including items ranging from wine to sporting goods. In addition, it has been mentioned that these new tariffs could include goods that are part of the North American trade agreement, the USMCA.
This event has not been favorable for confidence around the Canadian economy. Although Canada has tried to make progress on trade agreements with other countries, its economy remains strongly linked to trade activity with the United States. The latest trade balance data show that, by the end of 2025, more than 72% of Canadian exports were still directed to the United States compared with the rest of the world.
This keeps concerns around Canada’s economic dependence on its main trading partner in focus, especially if recent comments about new tariffs materialize and affect this relationship in the short term.
Source: InternationalCanada
With all of this in mind, the situation remains difficult for Canadian dollar strength. If the new tariffs materialize, they could affect growth expectations in Canada and limit the flow of foreign currency into the country.
For this reason, uncertainty could remain relevant, especially if recent comments turn into concrete measures. In this scenario, the Canadian dollar could struggle to gain ground consistently against the U.S. dollar, which would continue to favor possible buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
Do inflation data also have an impact? During the previous session, CPI inflation data in Canada was released. Although the market expected an annual reading of 2.9%, the figure came in at 2.8%, showing a slight slowdown from the recent high of 3.2% observed in May.
This moderation brings inflation closer again to the approximate 2.00% target and reduces concerns about a stronger acceleration in Canadian prices. For this reason, the Bank of Canada could face less pressure to adopt a more aggressive stance over the coming months.
Source: TradingEconomics
Market expectations point in the same direction. For the September and October decisions, the probability table shows more than a 60% chance that interest rates will remain without relevant changes.
This limits the appeal of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Canada’s reference rate, at 2.25%, remains considerably lower than the U.S. rate, which stands at 3.75%. This difference favors USD-denominated investments, especially due to the higher yield offered by the U.S. fixed-income market.
For this reason, the inflation reading could continue to weigh on the CAD and maintain relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few trading sessions.
Technical forecast for USD/CAD
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
New recovery becomes relevant: For several trading sessions, USD/CAD managed to break a long bullish trend line that had been in place for several months. However, selling strength has not fully dominated the chart. The new recovery has pushed price back above the 50-period simple moving average, indicating that the buying bias seen in previous months has not fully disappeared. If this behavior continues, room could open for a more relevant phase of indecision or even for an attempt to recover the previous bullish trend line.
RSI: The RSI line remains close to the 50 level. This indicates that, for now, there is still a balance between bullish and bearish impulses in the market over the last 14 sessions. This reading shows that a possible indecision bias could remain relevant in USD/CAD movements over the next few trading sessions.
TRIX: Now, the TRIX line has started to show relevant declines, although it still remains above the neutral 0 level. This reflects that bullish strength remains dominant on average across long-term exponential moving averages. For this reason, the broader buying bias from previous months may not have fully disappeared from the long-term chart.
Key levels:
1.42089 – Relevant resistance: This 2026 high remains the most important buying barrier on the chart. Price movements toward this area could reactivate a buying bias and restore relevance to the bullish trend line that was important in previous weeks.
1.40813 – Near-term barrier: This nearby area corresponds to the most relevant 23.6% Fibonacci level on the chart. Price movements that fail to move consistently away from this level could continue to highlight an important neutral phase and even open room for the formation of a short-term sideways range over the next few sessions.
1.39905 – Crucial support: This relevant bearish barrier corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area and also aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements below this level could reaffirm a more consistent selling bias and open room for a possible short-term bearish trend line over the next few sessions.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Key Points:GBP/USD pulled back despite the better-than-expected UK Unemployment Rate report. USD/CAD gained ground as traders ignored the rally in precious metals markets. USD/JPY tested the 163.00 level as traders focused on rising Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Rising Demand For Safe-Haven Assets
DXY 210726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to rising oil prices. WTI oil moved above the $84.00 level amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Demand for safe-haven assets increased, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.
Treasury yields are moving higher as bond traders bet that high oil prices will force Fed to raise rates. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.63%. Rising Treasury yields provided additional support to the American currency.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level at 101.80 – 102.00.
EUR/USD Attempts To Settle Below The 1.1400 Level EUR/USD 210726 4h Chart EUR/USD is mostly flat as traders focus on the Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index report. The report indicated that Economic Sentiment increased from 9.5 in June to 23.4 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 11.2.
If EUR/USD stays below the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
GBP/USD Retreats As Pullback Continues GBP/USD 210726 4h Chart GBP/USD remains under pressure as traders stay focused on first moves of new UK Prime Minister and react to the UK Unemployment Rate report. The report indicated that Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.9% in May, compared to analyst forecast of 5.0%.
The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range. If GBP/USD manages to settle below the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
USD/CAD Gains Ground Amid Rising Treasury Yields USD/CAD 210726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields and ignore the rally in precious metals markets. Gold moved above the $4050 level, while silver settled above $59.00. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.
In case USD/CAD stays above the 50 MA at 1.4083, it will move towards the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140. A successful test of the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.
USD/JPY Tests Multi-Decade Highs USD/JPY 210726 4h Chart USD/JPY is trying to settle above the 163.00 level as traders ignore intervention risks and focus on the fundamental weakness of the Japanese currency.
Rising Treasury yields put significant pressure on the Japanese yen due to the ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan. High oil prices serve as an additional bearish catalyst as Japanese economy is dependent on energy imports. A combination of higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices pushed the Japanese yen towards multi-decade lows.
In case USD/JPY settles above the 163.00 level, it will head towards the 165.00 level. RSI is in the overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain additional momentum in the near term. Potential BoJ interventions are the key risk for the bulls.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The USD/CAD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and recovers further from its lowest level since June 17, around the 1.4000 psychological mark touched the previous day. Spot prices advanced to a one-week high during the Asian session, though the intraday move up stalls ahead of the 1.4100 mark amid mixed fundamental cues.
The soft Canadian consumer inflation figures on Monday reaffirmed bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will keep interest rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs at least once in 2026 amid concerns about energy-driven inflation. Apart from this, US President Donald Trump's new tariff of 50% on Canadian products undermines the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations and an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). This is seen as another factor supporting the currency pair. That said, elevated oil prices, bolstered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the commodity-linked Loonie and cap gains for the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the highest level since April 2025 favors bullish traders. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 56. Momentum indicators together hint at recovering upside pressure. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 1.4100 confluence before positioning for any further near-term appreciation.
The said handle comprises the 38.2% Fibo. level and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, above which the USD/CAD pair could climb to the 50.0% retracement at 1.4126 and the 61.8% level at 1.4155. On the downside, support emerges at the 23.6% retracement near 1.4059, with a more substantial structural floor at the Fibonacci anchor around 1.4000, where a deeper pullback could pause if selling pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
Canadian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies this week. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.09%0.10%0.40%-0.59%-0.50%0.21%EUR-0.09%0.01%-0.06%0.31%-0.67%-0.60%0.11%GBP-0.09%-0.01%-0.07%0.30%-0.65%-0.61%0.15%JPY-0.10%0.06%0.07%0.39%-0.64%-0.65%0.22%CAD-0.40%-0.31%-0.30%-0.39%-0.94%-1.03%-0.15%AUD0.59%0.67%0.65%0.64%0.94%0.07%0.84%NZD0.50%0.60%0.61%0.65%1.03%-0.07%0.76%CHF-0.21%-0.11%-0.15%-0.22%0.15%-0.84%-0.76% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
The latest US tariffs on Canadian goods may be relatively modest in size, but the market reaction suggests investors are focusing on something bigger than the immediate trade impact. USD/CAD advanced after US President Donald Trump signed three proclamations imposing 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian exports, including alcohol, dairy products, motor vehicles, cement, hockey equipment and electrical machinery. The measures will take effect in roughly 30 days and, notably, apply regardless of compliance with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, known as CUSMA in Canada), while exempting energy, potash, critical minerals and products already subject to Section 232 duties.
The significance lies less in the sectors affected than in what the latest move says about US trade policy. Since early 2025, Washington has repeatedly expanded tariffs on Canadian goods using different legal authorities rather than relying on the framework established by USMCA. Each new measure reinforces the perception that the agreement is providing less practical protection against unilateral trade actions. As a result, markets are increasingly treating US-Canada trade friction as a structural issue rather than a series of isolated disputes, adding another headwind to Canada’s economic outlook just as uncertainty surrounding the formal USMCA review continues to build.
Canada’s response has so far stopped short of matching Washington’s escalation. Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated his preference for negotiations and emphasized strengthening Canada’s domestic economy, while Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Ottawa to retaliate “tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar.” Whether the federal government adopts a more confrontational stance will likely determine how far trade tensions escalate. For now, the new tariffs represent another obstacle for the Canadian Dollar, particularly if investors begin pricing a more prolonged drag on growth.
Technically, USD/CAD is also sending a constructive signal for Dollar bulls. The rebound from 1.4002 followed successful tests of both 55 D EMA (now at 1.4002) and 1.3965 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954), suggesting the decline from 1.4247 was corrective rather than the start of a broader reversal. Firm break above 1.4115 minor resistance would strengthen the case that the broader uptrend from the 2026 low at 1.3480 is resuming, bringing another challenge of the 1.4247 high into view.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
The Canadian dollar was the weakest-performing major currency on Monday after softer-than-expected inflation data reduced expectations of further Bank of Canada policy tightening. Cooling headline and core inflation diminished Canada's relative yield advantage, weighing on the Loonie despite the central bank leaving its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. Separately, reports that the US and Iran had signed a memorandum aimed at ending the conflict weighed on oil prices, adding further pressure to the oil-sensitive Canadian dollar. The loonie then came under renewed selling late in the US session after Reuters reported that Washington would impose new 50% tariffs on Canadian products.
Source: LSEG
Trump's Tariffs Add to Pressure on the Canadian Dollar The proposed 50% tariffs on Canadian products add a fresh headwind for the loonie by threatening Canada's export outlook and economic growth. Slower growth could reinforce expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold or even consider easing if the economic impact proves material, reducing the Canadian dollar's yield appeal relative to the US dollar. While the full scope and timing of the tariffs remain uncertain, the announcement was enough to fuel another leg higher in USD/CAD.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar USD/CAD posted its largest daily gain in 23 sessions, rising 0.5% after finding support at the 50-day EMA and the 1.40 handle, strongly suggesting a swing low may be in place, at least in the near term. It has been just under a month since USD/CAD peaked, and recent developments suggest the pair could extend its rebound towards the 2025 high at 1.4140.
The 1-hour chart shows support has emerged around the weekly pivot point for now, although the sharp momentum shift below ¥116 suggests bears may look to sell into minor pullbacks. A break below 115.31 would bring the 115.00 handle into focus, followed by a key support zone around 114.60 where the monthly and weekly pivot points converge.
Source: ICE, TradingView
CAD/JPY Technical Analysis: Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen While crude oil prices didn’t exactly roll over on Monday, they did form doji’s on the daily chart to show indecision. Given but WTI and brent crude have stalled around their respective resistance levels, it removes another pillar of support for CAD/JPY – which is leaving bearish reversal signals of its own.
CAD/JPY formed a notable bearish engulfing candle on Monday to mark its second worst day of the month. Given it formed around 1.16 after a solid bounce, the case for a pullback was arguably growing anyway.
The 1-hour chart shows support has been found around the weekly pivot point for now, though the sharp momentum shift below 116 suggests bears may be seeking to fade into minor pullbacks, A break below 115.31 brings the 115 handle, and tight support zone around 114.6 into focus comprising of the monthly and weekly pivot points.
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on rising Treasury yields. GBP/USD moved lower as traders waited for first moves of new UK Prime Minister. USD/CAD gained ground as Canada's Inflation Rate missed analyst estimates.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher At The Start Of The Week
DXY 200726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.22% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.60%. Treasury yields are moving higher as bond traders worry that rising oil prices will create inflationary pressure.
U.S. Dollar Index managed to settle above the 50 MA at 100.86 and is trying to settle above the 100.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance at 101.15 – 100.30. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 101.80 – 101.95. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
EUR/USD Pulls Back As Germany’s PPI Meets Estimates
EUR/USD 200726 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on Producer Prices report from Germany. The report showed that PPI increased by +1.8% year-over-year in June, in line with analyst consensus.
Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support at 1.1420 – 1.1435. In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD wil move towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range.
GBP/USD Retreats As Traders Wait For First Moves From New PM GBP/USD 200726 4h Chart GBP/USD is losing ground as traders react to political developments in the UK. New Prime Minister Andy Burnham promised to bring a new economic model for the UK, but markets remain skeptical. His predecessors also pledged to boost UK finances, but their attempts yielded no results.
In case GBP/USD manages to settle below the 50 MA at 1.3424, it will head towards the nearest support at 1.3335 – 1.3350. On the upside, GBP/USD needs to settle back above the resistance at 1.3450 – 1.3465 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term.
USD/CAD Rebounds As Canada’s Inflation Rate Drops To 2.8% USD/CAD 200726 4h Chart USD/CAD moved away from recent lows as traders focused on inflation data from Canada. Inflation Rate declined from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June, compared to analyst forecast of 2.9%. Core Inflation Rate decreased from 2.2% to 2.1%, while analysts expected that it would remain unchanged at 2.2%. The lower-than-expected inflation report put pressure on the Canadian dollar. Other commodity-related currencies are gaining ground in today’s trading session.
If USD/CAD settles above the 1.4050 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.4095. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
USD/JPY Moves Higher As Treasury Yields Rise
USD/JPY 200726 4h Chart USD/JPY gains ground, supported by rising Treasury yields. However, traders remain cautious as the yen is trading near multi-decade lows. Traders worry that BoJ may intervene to provide support to the national currency.
USD/JPY needs to settle above the 162.80 level to gain additional upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/JPY will head towards the 165.00 level.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
USD/CAD Key Points Canadian inflation cooled more sharply than expected in June, easing concerns that the recent energy-driven increase was spreading across the broader economy. Headline CPI slowed to 2.8% y/y from 3.2% in May; Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at 2.2% y/y. USD/CAD remains near a 1-month low, but a possible bullish engulfing candlestick pattern that would strengthen the argument for a near-term bottom.
A week after a similarly below-expectation report from the US, Canadian inflation cooled more sharply than expected in June, easing concerns that the recent energy-driven increase was spreading across the broader economy. Headline CPI slowed to 2.8% y/y from 3.2% in May, while prices fell -0.4% m/m. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI declined -0.1%.
The slowdown was largely driven by gasoline, which fell -10.2% from May as global oil prices retreated. Gasoline remained 20.5% more expensive than a year earlier, but that was well below May’s 33.2% increase. Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at 2.2% y/y.
The underlying details were also encouraging. The Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures eased to 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, leaving their average below the 2% target. Grocery inflation remained relatively firm at 3.9%, while World Cup-related demand pushed accommodation and air travel prices sharply higher. However, those increases were concentrated rather than widespread and are likely to dissipate soon with the tournament wrapping up this weekend.
For the Bank of Canada, the report supports the view that higher energy costs have not generated significant second-round inflation yet. With economic growth beginning to recover, the most likely outcome remains an extended hold at 2.25%, assuming oil prices stabilize and core inflation stays contained, though energy volatility from the ongoing conflict in Iran could still have a spillover impact on Canada’s oil-dependent economy in the coming months.
Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis: USD/CAD Daily Chart
Source: Tradingview, StoneX
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD is bouncing from support at its 50-day EMA near 1.4025, helped along by this morning’s softer-than-anticipated Canadian data. The North American pair remains near a 1-month low, but the combination of a BOC in stasis and the potential for safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid the re-escalating Iranian conflict could boost the pair as we move through the week. Current price action is showing a possible bullish engulfing candlestick pattern that would strengthen the argument for a near-term bottom.
Looking ahead, previous-support-turned-resistance at 1.4130 is the next level of resistance to watch before the 1+ year highs in the low-1.4200s, whereas a break below the 50-day EMA near 1.4020 could target the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July rally below 1.4000.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
USD/CAD extends its losses for the second successive day. trading around 1.4010 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is moving downward within the descending channel, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.
The USD/CAD is holding beneath both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the shorter-term nine-day EMA, which keeps the pair in a mildly bearish near-term stance after its recent pullback from the highs.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to about 36, suggesting fading bullish momentum but not yet oversold conditions, which hints that sellers retain control while downside extension may still unfold in a more measured fashion.
The USD/CAD pair tests the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.4000. A break below the channel would strengthen the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around 1.3481, the lowest since October 2024.
On the upside, the USD/CAD pair may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 1.4075, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around 1.4110. Further advances would cause the bullish emergence and support the currency cross to approach the 15-month high of 1.4248, reached on June 24.
USD/CAD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.01%-0.12%-0.02%-0.07%-0.14%-0.16%0.01%EUR0.01%-0.08%-0.02%-0.08%-0.12%-0.17%0.02%GBP0.12%0.08%0.07%0.01%-0.05%-0.08%0.08%JPY0.02%0.02%-0.07%-0.04%-0.11%-0.10%0.02%CAD0.07%0.08%-0.01%0.04%-0.06%-0.06%0.06%AUD0.14%0.12%0.05%0.11%0.06%-0.01%0.16%NZD0.16%0.17%0.08%0.10%0.06%0.00%0.13%CHF-0.01%-0.02%-0.08%-0.02%-0.06%-0.16%-0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
USDCAD currency pair recently broke the support zone between the key support level 1.4050, support trendline of the daily up channel from May and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active downward impulse wave (C) from the start of July.
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3550 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave (C)).
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The Canadian Dollar remains caught between improving domestic conditions and a stronger US Dollar, but CIBC believes the Bank of Canada is likely to remain comfortably on hold for the rest of the year.
USD/CAD traded near 1.37, with the pair continuing to reflect broad US Dollar strength rather than a significant deterioration in Canada's economic outlook.
CIBC says the Bank of Canada is in a relatively comfortable position after recent data showed inflation pressures easing while economic activity gradually improves.
The bank argues that policymakers have little incentive to adjust rates in either direction, with inflation moving closer to target and growth showing signs of stabilisation.
"Bank of Canada policy is comfortably in neutral territory for now."
CIBC expects the central bank to keep its benchmark rate unchanged through the remainder of 2026, with policymakers able to wait for clearer evidence on the direction of the economy.
The bank highlights that Canada's labour market has weakened, but not enough to force an immediate policy response, while inflation risks have become more balanced.
Near-Term USD/CAD Forecast: Rate Stability Leaves the Dollar Driving Direction CIBC believes USD/CAD will remain heavily influenced by developments in the US Dollar rather than major shifts in Canadian monetary policy.
With the Bank of Canada expected to remain on hold, movements in US yields, Federal Reserve expectations and global risk sentiment are likely to remain the key drivers for the currency pair.
A weaker US Dollar environment would provide room for Canadian Dollar gains, but continued US economic resilience could keep USD/CAD supported.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD -0.14%-0.30%+0.48%-0.96%-0.29%-1.25%-0.01%EUR+0.14% -0.16%+0.62%-0.82%-0.15%-1.11%+0.13%GBP+0.30%+0.16% +0.78%-0.66%0.00%-0.95%+0.28%JPY-0.48%-0.61%-0.77% -1.43%-0.76%-1.72%-0.49%CAD+0.97%+0.83%+0.67%+1.45% +0.67%-0.29%+0.95%AUD+0.29%+0.15%0.00%+0.77%-0.67% -0.96%+0.28%NZD+1.26%+1.12%+0.96%+1.75%+0.29%+0.97% +1.25%CHF+0.01%-0.12%-0.28%+0.49%-0.94%-0.28%-1.23% The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Japanese Yen, where Canadian Dollar made its strongest advance. Data comparing prices today (19/07/2026 22:16 UTC) and daily close on 12/07/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Key Points:GBP/USD remains under pressure as pullback continues. USD/CAD attempts to settle below the support at 1.4010 - 1.4025.USD/JPY remains stuck near the 162.50 level.
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U.S. Dollar Continues To Rebound As Traders Focus On Consumer Sentiment Data
DXY 170726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the better-than-expected Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. The report indicated that Michigan Consumer Sentiment increased from 49.5 in June to 54.4 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 51.
Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at housing market data. Housing Starts increased by +19% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of 0%. Building Permits decreased by -3%, while analysts expected that they would drop by -0.7%.
U.S. Dollar Index settled above the support at 100.50 – 100.65 and is moving towards the 50 MA at 100.90. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 50 MA, it will move towards the resistance level at 101.15 – 101.30.
EUR/USD Is Mostly Flat Ahead Of The Weekend EUR/USD 170726 4h Chart EUR/USD is stuck near the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435 as traders focus on U.S. economic data. Industrial Production increased by +0.1% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%.
In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1420 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. On the upside, a move above the 1.1450 level will push EUR/USD towards the resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515.
GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure GBP/USD 170726 4h Chart GBP/USD tested new lows as pullback continued. Traders focused on the rally in the oil markets, which was triggered by rising tensions in the Middle East.
If GBP/USD stays below the 1.3450 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3413. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 1.3450 – 1.3465 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.3535 – 1.3550.
USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.4010 – 1.4025
USD/CAD 170726 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing ground as traders focus on rising gold and silver prices. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session. There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in Canada today, so traders will stay focused on general market sentiment.
USD/CAD continues its attempts to settle below the support at 1.4010 – 1.4025. If USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.4010 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3915 – 1.3930. RSI has moved back into moderate territory, but there is some room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.
USD/JPY Stays Close To Multi-Decade Highs USD/JPY 170726 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck near the 162.50 level as traders focus on dynamics of Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.16% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.55%.
Traders are cautious amid worries about potential interventions from the Bank of Japan. However, BoJ’s interventions failed to provide support to the yen in 2026. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above the 162.80 level, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 165.00 level.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The USD/CAD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.4033 during the European trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair edges down as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms its major currency peers amid fears that oil prices could accelerate further.
Currencies from economies, such as Canada, that are net energy exporters tend to outperform in a high-oil-price environment.
The oil price outlook has improved amid threats from Iran that it will close the Red Sea if the United States (US) strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
On the monetary policy front, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said in the press conference, after leaving interest rates unchanged at 2.25%, that the central bank might need to raise interest rates if oil prices remain higher.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar holds Thursday’s recovery move amid fears of a resurgence in US inflation due to rising energy prices.
USD/CAD technical analysis
USD/CAD trades slightly lower at around 1.4033, extending a corrective tone after pulling back from recent highs. The pair now sits beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4107, suggesting a near-term bearish bias as price loses traction relative to the short-term trend benchmark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.6 has retreated from overbought territory and now leans toward the lower half of its range, suggesting that downside momentum is still in play but not yet oversold.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.4107, and a sustained recovery above this barrier would be needed to ease the current pressure. On the downside, the pair is expected to extend its decline towards the March 31 high at 1.3967.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.
Cable struggles as the pair met firm resistance after pushing over 100 pips in the past session.
• Not even a lift in GDP data could prevent the pound from slipping away from the 1.3500 level.
• With the RSI majorly overbought, a brief bounce to the downside could ensue.
• 1.3400 is the first hurdle to break before price action takes the pair back to the recent swing low at 1.3340.
• A move back past 1.3500 sees 1.3550 being the top to break.
USDCAD breaks lower
The Canadian dollar continues its advance as prices move away from the 1.4100 area.
• The pair remains under some pressure as its recent descent might lead to a reversal.
• A bullish divergence on the RSI is likely to attract buying interest in the near term as previous sellers look to switch sides.
• 1.4060 is the first target to expect sellers to close positions.
• A fall below 1.4000 would extend the sell-off towards 1.3960.
USOIL consolidating
WTI hits another fresh high as economists expect a test at the $82 level by the end of this week.
• As a show of resilience, the price has managed to hover around the psychological area of 80.00.
• Bulls will need to lift the 82.00 level before they can end the lengthy consolidation and push for a broader recovery.
• On the downside, 78.00 is the first support to keep the current momentum intact, with 75.50 a firm backup.
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Key Points:GBP/USD pulled back as traders reacted to economic reports from U.S. and UK. USD/CAD made an attempt to settle below the support level at 1.4010 - 1.4025.USD/JPY gained ground amid rising Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders React To Economic Data
DXY 160726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to the Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +0.2% month-over-month in June, in line with analyst estimates. Retail Sales Ex Autos declined by -0.2%, compared to analyst forecast of -0.1%.
Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 208,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst consensus of 217.000. The report showed that labor market remained in decent shape, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.
NAHB Housing Market Index decreased from 36 (revised from 35) in June to 34 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 35.
U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the support at 100.50 – 100.65 and is trying to settle above the 100.75 level. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the 50 MA at 100.92. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30.
EUR/USD Retreats As Traders Take Profits After Recent Rebound EUR/USD 160726 4h Chart EUR/USD pulls back as traders focus on economic reports from the U.S. Pending Home Sales declined by -5.4% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of -0.5%.
The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1420 – 1.1435 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range.
GBP/USD Pulls Back As UK Industrial Production Misses Estimates GBP/USD 160726 4h Chart GBP/USD is losing ground as traders focus on UK GDP report. The report showed that UK GDP increased by +0.1% month-over-month in May, in line with analyst consensus.
Manufacturing Production increased by +0.1% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of -0.2%. Industrial Production decreased by -0.5%, while analysts expected that it would drop by -0.1%.
In case GBP/USD manages to settle below the support level at 1.3450 – 1.3465, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3400. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350.
USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.4010 – 1.4025 USD/CAD 160726 4h Chart USD/CAD is mostly flat despite the strong pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined below the psychologically important $4000 level, while silver tested strong support at $56.00. Other commodity-related currencies are losing some ground in today’s trading session.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support at 1.4010 – 1.4025. In case USD/CAD settles below the 1.4010 level, it will move towards the next support level at 1.3915 – 1.3930. RSI is close to the oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.
USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rebound USD/JPY 160726 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving higher as traders react to the rebound in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.17% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above 4.58%.
USD/JPY is moving towards multi-decade highs near the 162.80 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 162.80, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 165.00 level.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate strengthened on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada maintained interest rates and struck a cautious tone on the outlook for monetary policy.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8903, up around 0.4% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.89695 (+0.77%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.606759 (+0.09%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.40514 (-0.01%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) retreated on Wednesday as markets digested the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision.
As was widely expected, the BoC opted to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% following its July policy meeting.
The bank’s accompanying statement also appeared to signal that policymakers are in no rush to follow some of their peers in tightening monetary policy, as they expect inflation to ease through the second half of 2026 and return to the 2% target in early 2027.
The cautious messaging from the Bank, coupled with a pullback in oil prices from Wednesday’s earlier highs, led investors to largely shun the ‘Loonie’.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) spent Wednesday trading sideways against most of its major peers.
With no major domestic economic releases to provide direction, investors instead focused on developments in the UK bond market.
A steady rise in gilt yields pushed the benchmark 10-year yield close to its highest level in two months, tempering sentiment towards Sterling.
Higher borrowing costs continue to raise concerns that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham could face a more challenging fiscal backdrop as elevated financing costs weigh on the UK's economic outlook.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Positive UK GDP Print to Strengthen Sterling? Looking ahead, the UK’s latest GDP figures are likely to provide the next major catalyst for the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate.
Economists expect monthly growth to return to positive territory in May, with output forecast to rise by 0.1% after April’s 0.1% contraction.
While a return to growth could support Sterling, any gains may prove limited if the underlying data still points to an uneven economic recovery.
Meanwhile, as the impact of the Bank of Canada’s policy decision fades, attention is likely to return to oil price movements.
Any renewed strength in crude prices could provide support for the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar through the remainder of the week.
Key Points:GBP/USD rallied as traders reacted to U.S. PPI data. USD/CAD moved lower despite the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY was mostly flat as traders ignored falling Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As PPI Misses Estimates
DXY 150726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is moving lower as traders react to Producer Prices report. The report indicated that Producer Prices decreased by -0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of 0%. Core PPI increased by +0.2%, while analysts forecasted that it would grow by +0.4%.
Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index report. The report showed that NY Empire State Manufacturing Index improved from 5.70 in June to 15.60 in July, compared to analyst consensus of 8.8.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the support level at 100.50 – 100.65. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next support, which is located in the 99.75 – 99.90 range.
EUR/USD Remains Stuck Near The 1.1435 Level EUR/USD 150726 4h Chart EUR/USD is moving higher despite the weaker-than-expected Industrial Production report. The report indicated that Industrial Production decreased by -0.2% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +0.2%.
The technical picture remains unchanged as EUR/USD is stuck near the resistance level at 1.1420 – 1.1435. If EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1435 level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515.
GBP/USD Tests New Highs GBP/USD 150726 4h Chart GBP/USD rallied as traders reacted to the softer-than-expected U.S. PPI data and remained focused on U.S. CPI report, which was released yesterday.
GBP/USD climbed above the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465 and is trying to settle above the 1.3500 level. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3535 – 1.3550 range. It should be noted that RSI has moved into overbought territory, so the risks of a pullback are increasing.
USD/CAD 150726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving lower despite the pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined below the $4050 level, while silver settled below $57.00. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.
The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.4010 – 1.4025 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3915 – 1.3930. RSI is in the oversold territory, but there is some room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.
On the upside, a move above the 1.4080 level will push USD/CAD towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
USD/JPY Is Flat As Traders Ignore Falling Treasury Yields USD/JPY 150726 4h Chart USD/JPY is mostly flat despite the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.55%.
Traders stay bullish due to the ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan. The market believes that BoJ cannot raise rates without putting too much pressure on the Japanese economy.
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The trading week continues to advance and, for now, the Canadian dollar has started to lose the strength it had shown in previous sessions. USD/CAD movements are barely registering a short-term variation near 0.05%, highlighting a loss of momentum.
For now, the selling pressure that USD/CAD had been showing has not managed to stabilize significantly after the Bank of Canada decision, which pointed to caution in monetary policy.
If the central bank fails to become a relevant catalyst for Canadian dollar demand, a phase of indecision could start to gain importance in USD/CAD movements over the next few sessions.
BoC day arrives During the session, the Bank of Canada published its interest rate decision, keeping the rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with expectations. The institution stated that current levels remain appropriate to support the economic recovery and bring inflation back toward the 2.00% target.
This stance reflects a cautious tone from the central bank. Although annual inflation in Canada has increased toward 3.2%, it is still not far enough from the target to justify a more aggressive stance. In addition, the bank continues to highlight that uncertainty remains elevated and that, with current rates, inflation should gradually ease.
Source: TradingEconomics
For now, this decision has not been enough to strengthen the Canadian dollar. The lack of signals around higher rates limits the appeal of CAD-denominated assets, especially compared to USD alternatives.
This dynamic is also reflected in Canada’s 10-year bonds, whose yield showed a decline close to -1.00% during the session. In addition, the spread against 10-year U.S. bonds remains relevant, as U.S. bonds still maintain a yield almost 1.00% higher.
Source: TradingEconomics
In this context, the Bank of Canada decision came without major surprises and failed to clearly improve the appeal of the Canadian market. For this reason, the recent recovery in the Canadian dollar appears to be explained more by U.S. dollar weakness than by the CAD’s own strength.
If new comments or data in the United States provide renewed support for the USD, USD/CAD could enter a phase of greater indecision over the next few trading sessions.
Technical forecast for USD/CAD
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
The uptrend comes to an end: Since the first days of May, USD/CAD had managed to maintain a consistent bullish trend line, which remained the dominant technical structure over recent weeks. However, with the recent price decline and U.S. dollar weakness, this trend line has been crossed in recent sessions. Despite the recent selling pressure, current movements have started to show a new sense of neutrality. If this behavior continues and the selling bias fails to stabilize, room could open for a phase of indecision or even the formation of a sideways range over the next few trading sessions.
RSI: The RSI line remains close to the 50 level. This indicates that, for now, there is still a balance between bullish and bearish impulses in the market over the last 14 sessions. This reading shows that a phase of indecision has not been fully eliminated from the USD/CAD daily chart.
TRIX: A similar dynamic can be seen in the TRIX. Although the line remains above the 0 level, indicating that the dominant strength of long-term exponential moving averages remains in bullish territory, a relevant flattening of the curve has started to appear. This suggests that the buying impulse from previous weeks has entered an important stagnation zone and makes a possible phase of neutrality relevant again on the USD/CAD daily chart.
Key levels:
1.42089 – Relevant resistance: This 2026 high remains the most important buying barrier on the chart. Price movements toward this area could reactivate a buying bias and restore relevance to the bullish trend line that was important in previous weeks.
1.40813 – Near-term barrier: This nearby zone corresponds to the most relevant 23.6% Fibonacci level on the chart. Price movements that fail to move consistently away from this level could continue to highlight an important phase of neutrality and even open room for the formation of a short-term sideways range.
1.39905 – Crucial support: This relevant bearish barrier corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area and also aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements below this level could reaffirm a more consistent selling bias and open room for a possible short-term bearish trend line over the next few sessions. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
USD/CAD remains subdued after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.4050 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is testing the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle. A decisive close below the lower support line would signal that the sellers have taken control, suggesting a strong continuation or reversal to the downside. If buying pressure defends the lower line, the boundary holds, suggesting the price will reverse course and head back up to test the triangle's upper resistance line.
The USD/CAD is retreating from recent highs and slipping below the short-term dynamics reflected by the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which now caps the topside. The pair still holds above the 50-period EMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 has eased out of overbought territory, hinting that bullish momentum has faded and leaving the near-term bias tilted to the downside while price remains under the nine-period EMA.
The USD/CAD pair recorded nearly a monthly low of 1.4039 during the early hours, near the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.4014. A successful break below this confluence support zone would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the 21-month low of 1.3481, recorded on January 30.
On the upside, the USD/CAD pair may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 1.4130. A break above the short-term moving average would cause a bullish emergence and support the pair to test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 1.4240, aligned with the 15-month high of 1.4248, reached on June 24.
USD/CAD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.03%-0.00%0.02%-0.04%-0.18%-0.12%0.11%EUR0.03%-0.03%0.06%-0.02%-0.20%-0.15%0.14%GBP0.00%0.03%0.07%0.00%-0.17%-0.14%0.16%JPY-0.02%-0.06%-0.07%-0.06%-0.22%-0.16%0.08%CAD0.04%0.02%-0.00%0.06%-0.15%-0.14%0.15%AUD0.18%0.20%0.17%0.22%0.15%0.03%0.29%NZD0.12%0.15%0.14%0.16%0.14%-0.03%0.28%CHF-0.11%-0.14%-0.16%-0.08%-0.15%-0.29%-0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Commodity-linked currencies strengthened after US inflation data came in weaker than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.5% year-on-year in June, below the 3.8% forecast, while core inflation eased to 2.6% versus expectations of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, while core CPI was unchanged. The moderation in inflationary pressure increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative policy stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting both the Australian and Canadian dollars against the greenback.
However, despite the weaker US dollar, the next move in USD/CAD will largely depend on the Bank of Canada’s policy decision. Later today, the central bank will announce its interest rate decision, publish its updated Monetary Policy Report, and hold a press conference with the Governor. If policymakers maintain a cautiously hawkish tone on inflation, the Canadian dollar could receive additional support. Conversely, a more dovish message may limit CAD gains despite the broader weakness in the US dollar.
Market participants will also focus on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide further insight into inflation trends following the softer CPI report. In addition, US crude oil inventory data could influence USD/CAD, as oil prices traditionally have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar.
AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair continues to develop the bullish engulfing reversal pattern. Yesterday, buyers managed to test the key resistance level around 0.7000. If the pair secures a sustained break above this level, the rally could extend towards the 0.7080–0.7130 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a move below 0.6900.
Key events for AUD/USD:
Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Market Index Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI) Today at 15:45 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member John Williams
USD/CAD Following confirmation of the bearish tower top reversal pattern, selling pressure on USD/CAD intensified, reinforced by the weaker-than-expected US inflation data. As a result, the pair declined below 1.4100. Technical analysis suggests there is scope for a further move lower towards the 1.3960–1.4020 area. A decisive break back above 1.4120 could revive the bullish outlook.
Key events for USD/CAD:
Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada interest rate decision Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada press conference
Overall, the weaker US inflation report strengthened expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve, weighing on the US dollar and supporting commodity-linked currencies. However, the next moves in AUD/USD and USD/CAD will depend on upcoming economic data and the Bank of Canada’s policy guidance.
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By the time the Bank of Canada announces its policy decision today, the Canadian Dollar has already built a powerful foundation for further gains. USD/CAD has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a month, supported not by a single catalyst but by three reinforcing forces: a broad retreat in the US Dollar after softer inflation data, higher oil prices that strengthen Canada’s export outlook, and growing expectations that the Bank of Canada may sound more hawkish than markets anticipated only a week ago.
The first two drivers have already reshaped the currency outlook. June’s weaker-than-expected US CPI prompted investors to scale back Federal Reserve tightening expectations, weighing on the Dollar across major currency pairs. At the same time, Brent crude has surged above $86 as renewed US-Iran hostilities threaten energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. For Canada, rising oil prices are more than just a global inflation story—they improve the country’s terms of trade and typically provide direct support for the Canadian Dollar, helping explain why the Loonie has outperformed most of its peers following the inflation data.
The Bank of Canada now has an opportunity either to reinforce or challenge that momentum. Economists overwhelmingly expect a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25%, making the decision itself unlikely to surprise. The more important question is whether Governor Tiff Macklem adjusts his message in response to oil’s renewed surge. His previous characterization of policy as balancing weaker growth against energy-driven inflation was formed before Brent’s latest rally, meaning the Monetary Policy Report may already understate current inflation risks. Markets will therefore pay closer attention to Macklem’s live assessment than to the published projections.
That leaves the accompanying statement and Macklem’s press conference as the key market events. Investors will focus on whether the Governor continues to describe policy as a balanced dilemma or acknowledges that the renewed energy shock has tilted inflation risks higher. Any discussion of the ongoing CUSMA trade review will also be closely watched, as it remains an important downside risk to Canada’s growth outlook. Even without signaling an imminent rate increase, a modestly more hawkish tone could encourage markets to further increase expectations of tightening in early 2027, where pricing is already becoming increasingly balanced.
Technically, USD/CAD is approaching an important inflection point. While the decline from 1.4247 has accelerated, it is still viewed as a correction within the broader uptrend from 1.3480. Strong support is expected between former resistance at 1.3965 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954. Break of 1.4159 minor resistance will indicae that the correction has completed.
However, a decisive break below 1.3954/65 would suggest the advance from 1.3480 has completed as a three-wave corrective rebound after failing near 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Such a development would shift the near-term technical outlook decisively in favour of further Canadian Dollar strength.
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U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Inflation Rate Misses Estimates
DXY 140726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders react to CPI report. The report indicated that Inflation Rate decreased from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June, compared to analyst forecast of +3.8%. Core Inflation Rate pulled back from 2.9% to 2.6%, while analysts expected that it would drop to 2.8%.
Lower-than-expected inflation data put material pressure on the American currency as traders reduced bets on hawkish Fed. However, the strong rally in the oil markets may raise prices again, so it remains to be seen whether the pullback in inflation is sustainable.
The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 100.50 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 99.75 – 99.90 range.
EUR/USD Tests Resistance At 1.1420 – 1.1435 EUR/USD 140726 4h Chart EUR/USD moved higher as traders focused on U.S. inflation data. In the EU, traders had a chance to take a look at the Wholesale Prices report from Germany. The report indicated that Wholesale Prices declined by -0.7% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of +0.5%.
From the technical point of view, EUR/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.1420 – 1.1435. In case EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1435 level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Moves Higher As Traders Reduce Bets On Hawkish Fed GBP/USD 140726 4h Chart GBP/USD gained ground, supported by U.S. CPI report. Traders bet that Fed will be less hawkish as inflation has started to calm down. Traders also focus on comments from Fed Chair Warsh. He said that CPI decline did not mean that Fed accomplished its mission.
In case GBP/USD pulls back below the 50 MA at 1.3376, it will head towards the nearest support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. A successful test of of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
On the upside, GBP/USD needs to settle above the resistance at 1.3450 – 1.3465 to have a chance to gain additional upside momentum in the near term.
USD/CAD Tests New Lows
USD/CAD 140726 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing ground as lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data provided material support to commodity markets. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.
USD/CAD settled below the previous support at 1.4125 – 1.4140 and is trying to settle below the 1.4050 level. In case this attempt is successful, it will head towards the next support at 1.4000 – 1.4025.
USD/JPY Moves Lower As Treasury Yields Fall USD/JPY 140726 4h Chart USD/JPY is losing some ground as traders focus on the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.20% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.60%.
A move below the support level at 161.50 – 162.00 will push USD/JPY towards recent lows near the 160.50 level. It should be noted that USD/JPY failed to gain strong downside momentum as traders worried that rising oil prices will put pressure on Japan’s economy.
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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades higher against its major currency peers, except antipodeans, during the European trading session on Tuesday. The USD/CAD pair declines 0.25% to near 1.4120 at the time of writing as the Loonie gains amid improvement in the appeal of currencies from economies, such as Canada, which are net Oil exporters.
The United States (US) economy is also a net energy exporter, but the US Dollar faces selling pressure ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June release at 12:30 GMT.
At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 2.73% higher to near $80.00, the highest level seen in almost a month. Oil prices have increased significantly as US President Donald Trump claims that Washington is the rightful recipient of toll fees near the Strait of Hormuz.
On the domestic front, investors await the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy announcement due on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. Investors will pay attention to comments regarding the outlook on inflation and the economy.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 101.18.
USD/CAD technical analysis
Bias: USD/CAD trades lower at around 1.4120, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as it remains capped by the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.4136.
Momentum: Price action sits just under this dynamic resistance, hinting at a consolidation phase after the recent pullback, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 on the daily chart suggests neutral momentum rather than strong directional conviction.
Resistance: On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 1.4136, and a daily close above this barrier would ease current downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery. Looking up, the major barrier would be the yearly high at around 1.4248.
Support: On the downside, the pair could extend its decline towards the June 18 low at 1.4095; below that, the downside momentum could accelerate, and the pair could fall towards the psychological level of 1.4000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has eased towards 1.4140 after the Canadian Dollar extended last week's gains following another resilient domestic labour market report.
Scotiabank believes the May-June decline in the Canadian Dollar has now likely run its course, with improving economic data helping stabilise sentiment towards the Loonie.
The bank notes that June's employment report was broadly supportive despite job growth being concentrated in part-time positions. An unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, stronger wage growth and another increase in hours worked all point to firmer economic momentum after a sluggish start to the year.
According to Scotiabank, "the May/June trend decline does appear to have bottomed out."
The bank cautions that the Canadian Dollar may struggle to strengthen significantly further unless expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening begin to fade.
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank believes the US Dollar's strong rally is losing momentum, although a decisive bearish reversal has yet to develop.
The bank says a sustained break below the 1.4140-1.4150 support zone would strengthen the case for a move towards 1.4075-1.4085, while resistance around 1.4250 should continue to cap any renewed USD gains.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD +0.30%-0.19%+0.55%-0.46%-0.01%-1.25%+1.00%EUR-0.30% -0.48%+0.26%-0.75%-0.31%-1.54%+0.70%GBP+0.19%+0.48% +0.74%-0.27%+0.17%-1.06%+1.19%JPY-0.55%-0.26%-0.74% -1.00%-0.56%-1.79%+0.45%CAD+0.46%+0.76%+0.27%+1.01% +0.45%-0.80%+1.47%AUD+0.01%+0.31%-0.17%+0.57%-0.44% -1.24%+1.02%NZD+1.26%+1.56%+1.08%+1.82%+0.80%+1.25% +2.28%CHF-0.99%-0.70%-1.18%-0.45%-1.45%-1.01%-2.23%
The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Swiss Franc, where Canadian Dollar made its strongest advance. Data comparing prices today (13/07/2026 15:08 UTC) and daily close on 06/07/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders reacted to the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/CAD was mostly flat as traders focused on the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY climbed towards the 162.50 level amid rising Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Oil Prices Rally
DXY 130726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on geopolitical developments. President Trump said that U.S. will impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports. He added that U.S. will become a “guardian” in the Strait of Hormuz and would charge fees at a rate of 20% on all cargo shipped.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range.
EUR/USD Retreats As Traders Bet On Hawkish Fed
EUR/USD 130726 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. Brent oil gained 5% as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would drop after U.S. decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran. Most likely, Iran will try to attack vessels passing through the Strait without the country’s permission.
EUR/USD failed to settle above the resistance at 1.1420 – 1.1435 and pulled back towards the 1.1400 level. If EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1400 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Pulls Back Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions GBP/USD 130726 4h Chart GBP/USD moved lower as traders worried that rising oil prices will force the Fed to raise rates sooner rather than later, which would be bullish for the American currency.
In case GBP/USD declines below the 50 MA at 1.3366, it will get to the test of the support at 1.3335 – 1.3350. A move below the 1.3335 level will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
USD/CAD Remains Stuck Near Support At 1.4125 – 1.4140 USD/CAD 130726 4h Chart USD/CAD continued its attempts to settle below the support at 1.4125 – 1.4140 despite the strong pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined towards the psychologically important $4000 level, while silver pulled back below $58.00. Other commodity-related currencies were mixed in today’s trading session.
If USD/CAD settles below the 1.4125 level, it will move towards the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025. On the upside, USD/CAD needs to stay above the 1.4140 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/CAD will head towards the 50 MA at 1.4185. A move above the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the resistance at 1.4225 – 1.4240.
USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rise
USD/JPY 130726 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.60%.
If USD/JPY stays above the support level at 161.50 – 162.00, it will move towards recent highs near the 162.80 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 162.80, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 165.00 level. It remains to be seen whether Bank of Japan is ready to provide support to the Japanese yen.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
After several strongly positive weeks, USD/CAD has stalled over the past few sessions, entering a phase of uncertainty.
On the dollar side, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a firm tone, reaffirming the 2% inflation target and pushing back against political pressure to cut rates, while sticky PCE inflation near 4% keeps hike odds alive for September. Yet June payrolls came in softer and speculative USD positioning looks stretched, raising doubts on how much further the rally can extend. Markets will also watch upcoming US CPI and PPI releases closely, as either gauge could reinforce the Fed hike case or, if softer, cap dollar strength.
The loonie’s story is similarly mixed. Canada’s June jobs report beat expectations, reducing the odds of a BoC cut, yet the currency remains capped by falling oil prices, subdued inflation, and unresolved CUSMA trade uncertainty. Two currencies face both genuine support and headwinds, leaving USD/CAD hostage to this week’s BoC decision and incoming US data—a backdrop that aligns well with what the chart itself is showing.
USD/CAD Technical analysis
As the 4H chart shows, USD/CAD has traded within a well-defined ascending channel since May’s lows, and is now consolidating just below recent swing highs. The Fibonacci retracement drawn from that low to the July high offers a useful reference for the levels ahead.
Bullish Scenario
As long as price holds above the ascending trendline and defends the former resistance, now turned support, in the 1.4100 area, the broader uptrend structure remains firmly intact, and this pause looks far more like healthy consolidation than an early reversal signal. A confirmed bounce off the trendline, followed by a decisive push back above the recent swing high near the 1.4250 area, would validate continued bullish control and open the way for USD/CAD to extend its rally into fresh highs for the move, keeping the dollar’s medium-term strength against the loonie firmly in place.
Bearish Scenario
A clean, sustained break below the ascending trendline would mark the first real technical warning sign, shifting near-term momentum decisively lower. In that case, the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels would become the first meaningful support tests, coinciding with the psychological 1.3900-1.4000 range. Losing these levels could expose a deeper slide towards the 0.618 retracement—an area that would confirm a genuine correction of the entire May-to-July rally rather than a simple pullback, and would put the pair’s medium-term bullish structure into serious question.
With price sitting right on the ascending trendline, the coming sessions could prove decisive in determining where USD/CAD heads next.
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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades firmly against its major currency peers, but is flat at around 1.4160 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.
The Loonie outperforms as Oil prices have increased significantly, following the announcement that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of the global energy supply, again. As of writing, the WTI Oil price is up 3.75%, above $74.00. Given that Canada is a net energy exporter, higher oil prices bode well for the Canadian Dollar.
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.14%0.32%0.06%0.34%0.01%0.03%EUR-0.09%0.06%0.22%-0.03%0.26%-0.04%-0.04%GBP-0.14%-0.06%0.17%-0.10%0.22%-0.08%-0.06%JPY-0.32%-0.22%-0.17%-0.27%0.03%-0.27%-0.23%CAD-0.06%0.03%0.10%0.27%0.30%0.02%0.04%AUD-0.34%-0.26%-0.22%-0.03%-0.30%-0.26%-0.24%NZD-0.01%0.04%0.08%0.27%-0.02%0.26%0.03%CHF-0.03%0.04%0.06%0.23%-0.04%0.24%-0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Over the weekend, Iran announced that the Hormuz would now be closed “until further notice”, as part of retaliation against several attacks from United States (US) military forces on various regions in Iran.
While the Canadian currency outperforms its major peers, it trades sideways against the US Dollar, as the safe-haven demand for the latter has improved amid renewed aggression in the Middle East. In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% higher to near 101.10.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy announcement.
USD/CAD technical analysis
USD/CAD trades at 1.4163, holding a constructive near-term bias as it trades above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4139. The pair is consolidating near recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 62 has eased out of overbought territory on the daily chart, suggesting the latest pause is more a cooldown than a clear reversal at this stage.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 1.4139, which coincides with the November 2025 high that used to be a major resistance for the pair earlier; below that, the June 18 low at 1.4095 is the key support zone. On the upside, the pair could revisit its yearly high at 1.4248 if it breaks above 1.4200.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has eased back to around 1.4160 after retreating from June's highs above 1.42, with the Canadian Dollar finding support from firmer oil prices and improving risk sentiment.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41574 (-0.07%)
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.897869 (-0.13%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.616046 (-0.23%)
ING believes the Canadian Dollar can remain relatively well supported in the near term, although it does not expect USD/CAD to fall back below the key 1.40 level over the next couple of months.
The bank notes that higher oil prices and a modest repricing of Bank of Canada expectations have helped the Loonie outperform the US Dollar this week.
However, ING argues that the bar for a more hawkish Bank of Canada remains high. Unless oil prices return to the elevated levels seen during April and May, inflation pressures should remain sufficiently contained for policymakers to stay cautious.
According to ING, uncertainty surrounding the future of the USMCA trade agreement is likely to keep a risk premium embedded in the Canadian Dollar during the third quarter.
The bank says that while recent support for the Loonie is encouraging, "we still think USMCA-related risk premium can be added throughout 3Q and don't expect a return below 1.40 in the next couple of months."
ING expects next week's Bank of Canada meeting to deliver no major policy surprises, with attention remaining focused on employment, inflation and developments in North American trade negotiations.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD +0.19%-0.41%+0.21%-0.30%-0.18%-0.85%+0.61%EUR-0.19% -0.59%+0.03%-0.49%-0.37%-1.04%+0.43%GBP+0.41%+0.59% +0.62%+0.10%+0.22%-0.45%+1.02%JPY-0.21%-0.03%-0.62% -0.51%-0.39%-1.06%+0.40%CAD+0.30%+0.49%-0.10%+0.52% +0.12%-0.55%+0.92%AUD+0.18%+0.37%-0.22%+0.40%-0.12% -0.67%+0.80%NZD+0.86%+1.05%+0.45%+1.07%+0.55%+0.67% +1.48%CHF-0.61%-0.42%-1.01%-0.40%-0.91%-0.79%-1.46% The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Swiss Franc, where Canadian Dollar made its strongest advance. Data comparing prices today (11/07/2026 19:16 UTC) and daily close on 04/07/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has retreated to around 1.4160 after reaching highs above 1.42 earlier this month, with the Canadian Dollar showing signs of stabilising following its steep May and June losses.
Scotiabank believes the CAD sell-off may have run its course as short-term US-Canada interest-rate spreads reverse some of their earlier widening.
The bank expects Canada's June labour-market report to be an important near-term test. Economists forecast a 10,000 increase in employment, unchanged unemployment at 6.6% and a modest rebound in wage growth.
Scotiabank notes that May delivered an unusually strong 87,800 rise in employment, driven by large full-time job gains and an increase in hours worked.
According to the bank, "decent job gains, firm wages and more gains in hours worked would be positive for the CAD", potentially allowing USD/CAD to make another attempt below 1.4150.
A more substantial Canadian Dollar recovery would still require a clearer narrowing in US-Canada rate spreads. Scotiabank believes that could become more likely if upcoming US inflation data are softer than expected.
From a technical perspective, the bank says price action supports the view that the US Dollar rally has peaked, although bullish momentum has not yet been decisively broken.
A sustained move below 1.4150 would open the way towards 1.4075-1.4080, while Scotiabank remains confident that the 1.4250-1.4300 region will cap renewed USD gains.
GBP/USD 100726 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving higher as traders bet that the situation in the Middle East will calm down. In absence of economic reports, geopolitical developments serve as the key catalyst for GBP/USD. In case U.S. and Iran restart negotiations and do not attack each other, demand for risk assets will increase, providing additional support to the British pound.
The nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3450 – 1.3465 range. If GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3465 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.3535 – 1.3550 range.
On the support side, GBP/USD needs to settle below the 1.3400 level to have a chance to gain downside momentum in the near term. A move below 1.3400 will push GBP/USD towards the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350.
The USD/CAD crosses below the critical level of 1.4200, heading towards 1.4164 on a three-day consecutive basis due to the declining US dollar The drop in interest rates expectations and a geopolitical surge in the price of crude oil contribute to the Canadian dollar’s gains. The lingering concerns over divergent inflation trends and the delayed renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement pose substantial counterparty risks in the long run For much of the past week, USD/CAD had been stuck around the 1.4200 level, unable to decide on a direction. But that indecision’s now broken to the downside. The pair has spent three straight sessions, including today’s intraday trade, below that mark, dropping from the 1.4210-1.4220 area into the 1.4130s.
Anyone tracking the loonie has to wonder if this marks a true trend change, or just a pause in the dollar’s longer uptrend.
Shifting Central Bank Math and the Energy Boost The USD/CAD pair had been trading in a relatively narrow range near 1.4200, reflecting a period where US dollar and Canadian loonie forces were balanced. Breaking below this mark is a technical move that might signal shifting momentum. Such moves often grab the attention of traders who watch key psychological levels. They can influence price action and where traders place their bets.
On one side, the US dollar has been weakening significantly this week. It kept falling even when US jobless claims came in better than expected, because people were paying more attention to the overall mood rather than just one piece of data.
Meanwhile, in Canada, the swap markets have quietly adjusted, now putting the chances of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates this year at about 60%, up from around 40% just a few days ago. This change is helping the Canadian dollar gain strength. Earlier this summer, market players were strongly expecting the US Federal Reserve to raise rates multiple times, especially with a new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh.
However, pricing for a cumulative Fed rate increase by December has dropped notably. It’s now around 26 basis points, down from the 38 basis points expected just last week. This cooling trend was reinforced by the latest Fed minutes. They showed that while inflation concerns remain, the broader enthusiasm for immediate, consecutive hikes has started to recede.
At the same time, the Canadian dollar, which is closely tied to commodities, is getting a significant boost from the global energy sector. New geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with recent military clashes near important global shipping routes, have driven up international crude oil prices. Since Canada is a major exporter of crude oil, higher energy prices naturally benefit the Canadian dollar.
Navigating the 1.4100 Support Zone With the USD/CAD pair breaking its multi-week trading range, currency allocators and macro investors should rethink their short-term positioning. Chasing this downward breakout with aggressive, large-scale short USD positions at current levels carries notable risks. The pair is quickly nearing its next major technical support zone around 1.4100.
There are also trade policy issues to keep an eye on. The failure to immediately renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) after its July deadline creates long-term structural uncertainty. Any strong protectionist talk or threats of tariffs from Washington would immediately dampen business confidence and slow down the Canadian dollar’s gains.
Why did the USD/CAD pair break below 1.4200?
Shifting momentum from US dollar dynamics, commodity influences, and policy expectations favoured the Canadian dollar recently.
How significant is this technical breakdown?
It signals potential bearish momentum for the pair, though sustainability depends on confirmation from economic data and volume.
How should forex traders reposition?
They should consider favouring CAD strength with defined risk levels, while monitoring resistance for possible reversals.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has edged lower towards 1.4160 this week as the Canadian Dollar modestly outperformed most of its major peers.
Scotiabank believes the outlook for the Canadian Dollar is beginning to improve as interest-rate spreads stabilise and economic data become less negative.
The bank notes that recent Canadian data have consistently come in slightly ahead of expectations, helping narrow the gap between US and Canadian economic surprises.
According to Scotiabank, "a lot of bad news is already factored into the CAD at current pricing", leaving "little or no room for additional losses."
The bank also points to softer demand for US Dollar upside protection, suggesting investor sentiment has become less bearish towards the Canadian Dollar.
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank believes USD/CAD remains in a consolidation phase. While the US Dollar is still heavily overbought, the bank expects the 1.4250-1.4300 region to provide firm resistance.
A break below 1.4150 would strengthen the case for a deeper pullback towards the important 1.4075-1.4080 support zone.
Scotiabank believes stabilising interest-rate differentials and improving domestic data should provide a firmer foundation for the Canadian Dollar after a difficult first half of the year.
The USD/CAD pair stages a modest intraday recovery from the 1.4135 area, or a three-week low touched this Friday, and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the early European session. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.4160 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders now look forward to Canadian monthly employment details for a fresh impetus.
In the meantime, a weaker tone around Crude Oil prices undermines the commodity-linked Loonie. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, bounces off over a one-week low amid prospects of at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 and concerns about a fresh escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This, in turn, assists the USD/CAD pair in attracting some buyers at lower levels.
From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, an intraday break below the lower boundary of a three-week-old trading range, near the 1.4150 area, could be seen as a key trigger for the USD/CAD pair. However, the lack of follow-through warrants caution before positioning for further losses.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 line near 43. Momentum indicators together hint at subdued upside momentum and leaving the path of least resistance tilted to the downside. Hence, any further recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and is more likely to fizzle out rather quickly.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 100-period SMA around 1.4190. A clear break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and allow a recovery toward the trading range resistance, near mid-1.4200s, or the highest level since April 2025, touched last month. On the downside, 1.4100 now could act as an immediate support ahead of 1.4025 and the 1.4000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate, released by Statistics Canada, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force as a percentage. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market and a weakening of the Canadian economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Since the final days of June, the Canadian dollar has been unable to build relevant strength against the U.S. dollar. Now, average USD/CAD movements remain close to 0.2% in the short term, showing a neutral bias that has become evident again in the behavior of both currencies.
For now, CAD has not managed to regain confidence ahead of the employment data release. An additional slowdown in this indicator could keep the Bank of Canada on a neutral policy path, limiting the support from higher rates and making it harder for the Canadian dollar to regain appeal in the short term.
In addition, new updates around the conflict in the Middle East could be key for USD strength. Together, these events could continue to highlight a phase of indecision, or even relevant buying pressure, around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
What to expect from employment in Canada? Tomorrow’s session is expected to bring the release of Canada’s employment change data. So far, expectations point to a significant decline from the previous reading, with the creation of around 11.2 thousand jobs in June. This figure would come in well below the May reading, which stood near 87.8 thousand jobs created.
Looking at the broader behavior of employment in Canada over the last few months, the data shows a mixed dynamic, with consistent signs of weakness. May was the only month that managed to post a solid figure, but overall, employment data has shown fragility. This trend could be confirmed with tomorrow’s release, especially if the result comes in below expectations, as it would reaffirm a relevant labor market problem in Canada compared to other countries where the slowdown is not as significant.
Source: TradingEconomics
This outlook could be relevant for the Bank of Canada, as weaker employment, or even a reading below expectations, could reduce the need to raise the interest rate, which currently remains around 2.25%. This could lead the central bank to maintain a wait-and-see stance before considering meaningful changes to monetary policy.
In fact, so far, the probability table shows an 88% chance that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the July 15 decision. For the September decision, a probability above 70% has also started to emerge that this dynamic will persist.
Source: Bankofcanadaodds
The employment data release is key. If the report confirms a sharper-than-expected slowdown, expectations for a neutral monetary policy stance from the Bank of Canada could be reinforced over the coming months.
This would limit the appeal of rates in Canada, especially compared to a Federal Reserve that is still approaching scenarios of potential rate hikes. In this context, the differential against the 3.75% rate in the United States could continue to favor USD-denominated investments over those denominated in CAD.
For this reason, a significant decline in employment change could maintain a phase of indecision or even relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
Does the Middle East matter? Another important event to consider is the situation in the Middle East. The latest updates have shown that the United States would be willing to sit down for negotiations, while Trump’s comments continue to point toward maintaining a diplomatic path.
However, an environment of confusion has developed, as during the last 2 sessions a new escalation of the conflict seemed inevitable amid fresh attacks. This has increased doubts over whether a potential peace agreement can take place in the short term.
In this scenario, the behavior of the U.S. dollar is key. The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength, showed a relevant increase above the 101-point area in previous sessions as new attacks returned. During the latest session, however, it weakened again amid the relative calm generated by additional comments from the United States.
Source: TradingEconomics
This point is important because, for months, the dollar has been considered a liquidity safe-haven currency during repeated escalations of the conflict. This could become relevant again if no concrete negotiations are seen in the short term.
In that scenario, additional safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar could appear, making it harder for the Canadian dollar to recover ground in the short term. This could also open the door to relevant buying pressure around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.
Technical outlook for USD/CAD
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Bullish trend continues to dominate: Since the first days of May, USD/CAD has maintained a relevant bullish trend line. This structure has marked an important buying bias, also reinforced by the bullish crossover of the 50-period moving average above the 200-period moving average, signaling a shift from a bearish structure to a more relevant bullish structure. For now, there is no bearish correction strong enough to put this technical pattern at risk, which is why it remains the most important structure to watch and could continue to dominate movements over the next few sessions.
RSI: The RSI remains above the 50 level, suggesting that buying momentum has remained relevant over the last 14 sessions. If the indicator continues to hold above the neutral area, this could continue to reflect an important buying bias over the next few sessions.
TRIX: The TRIX line maintains a bullish slope above its neutral zone, reinforcing the presence of buying strength in long-term exponential moving averages and highlighting the importance of a broad buying bias. However, the curve has also started to flatten steadily, which may be signaling exhaustion in buying strength. This could reflect a relevant phase of indecision over the next few sessions or a possible pause in the buying bias seen in previous weeks.
Key levels:
1.42604 – Relevant resistance: This important high has not been seen consistently since April 2025 and represents the main short-term bullish barrier. Moves toward this zone would reinforce the current buying bias and could open room for an extension of the bullish trend line over the next few sessions.
1.41982 – Near-term barrier: This is the most relevant neutral and retracement zone from recent trading sessions. Price movements too close to this level could highlight consistent neutrality and even open room for a possible short-term sideways range.
1.40813 – Crucial support: This bearish barrier coincides with the area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Price movements that begin to approach this level could end the bullish trend line and open room for a more dominant selling bias over the coming trading weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
USD/CAD moves sideways after two days of losses, trading around 1.4170 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bullish bias.
The USD/CAD is retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds comfortably above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price is pressing against the short-term nine-period EMA, which acts as immediate resistance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 64 stays in positive territory but off extreme overbought readings, hinting at sustained upside momentum with some scope for consolidation.
The USD/CAD pair may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.4182, followed by the primary barrier at the nearly 15-month high of 1.4248, reached on June 24. Further advances would expose the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4400.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4110. A break below the channel would put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3998.
USD/CAD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.17%-0.24%-0.15%0.03%-0.10%-0.54%-0.23%EUR0.17%-0.06%0.04%0.21%0.10%-0.34%-0.05%GBP0.24%0.06%0.09%0.26%0.17%-0.28%0.02%JPY0.15%-0.04%-0.09%0.16%0.08%-0.39%-0.08%CAD-0.03%-0.21%-0.26%-0.16%-0.10%-0.55%-0.25%AUD0.10%-0.10%-0.17%-0.08%0.10%-0.44%-0.14%NZD0.54%0.34%0.28%0.39%0.55%0.44%0.30%CHF0.23%0.05%-0.02%0.08%0.25%0.14%-0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders reacted to the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/CAD moved lower despite the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY gained ground, supported by rising Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Oil Prices Gain 5%
DXY 080726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders prepare for the release of FOMC Minites and react to rising tensions in the Middle East.
President Trump said that U.S. could launch strikes against Iran and resume the blockade of country’s ports. Oil prices are up by more than 5% as traders react to the surprising escalation between U.S. and Iran. Rising oil prices could force Fed to be more hawkish, which is bullish for the American currency.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
EUR/USD Retreats Amid Worries About Hawkish Fed EUR/USD 080726 4h Chart EUR/USD is losing ground as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets. Demand for risk assets declined amid inflation fears, which was bearish for the European currency.
EUR/USD settled below the 50 MA at 1.1414 and is trying to settle below the 1.1400 level. If EUR/USD settles below 1.1400, it will head towards the support level, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range.
GBP/USD Rebounds From Session Lows GBP/USD 080726 4h Chart GBP/USD is swinging between gains and losses as traders focus on geopolitical tensions and evaluate their next moves.
In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3450 – 1.3465 range.
USD/CAD 080726 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing some ground despite the strong pullback in precious metals markets. Gold is down by -1.5%, while silver pulled back by -4%. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.
In case USD/CAD stays below the 50 MA at 1.4203, it will head towards the nearest support level, which is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140.
On the upside, a move above the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the resistance at 1.4225 – 1.4240. In case USD/CAD climbs above the 1.4240 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.4335 – 1.4350 range.
USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 080726 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.23% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.58%. Treasury yields are rising as traders react to recent developments in the Middle East and bet on hawkish Fed. In case oil prices continue to move higher, the Japanese yen will find itself under additional pressure.
From the technical point of view, USD/JPY settled above the resistance at 161.50 – 162.00 and is moving towards multi-decade highs near 162.80. In case USD/JPY settles above the 162.80 level, it will head towards the 165.00 level. It remains to be seen whether the Bank of Japan is ready to intervene as yen’s fundamentals are extremely bearish. Previous attempts to support the yen yielded no results.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The USD/CAD pair loses traction to near 1.4175 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Renewed US military strikes against Iran have boosted crude oil prices and provide some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD).
Reuters reported on Wednesday that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said they attacked US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait after the US launched a wave of strikes against Iran in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.
"For now, the market is keeping to the playbook that Tehran and Washington are still in a high-stakes game to gain leverage during the temporary truce, and that Tuesday’s incident would not descend back into a full-scale war," DBS analysts wrote in a research report.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, USD/CAD retains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period middle simple moving average and comfortably over the 100-day moving average. The pair is advancing along the upper half of the Bollinger envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 66 stays in positive territory but shy of overbought, suggesting firm upside pressure with some room for further gains before stretched conditions become acute.
On the topside, the first upside barrier emerges at the June 24 high of 1.4248. The next notable resistance is the Bollinger Bands’ upper band, coming in around 1.4315 and marking the immediate cap for the current advance.
On the downside, initial support is located at the Bollinger middle band at 1.4145. The crucual contention level is seen at the 1.4000 psychological level ahead of a deeper cushion at the lower band near 1.3975, with the 100-day moving average at 1.3827 reinforcing the broader bullish structure as long as USD/CAD holds above it.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
USD/CAD edges lower on Tuesday even as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) drawing support from a modest rebound in crude Oil prices following renewed attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4188.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil is trading around $70.30, up nearly 2.50% on the day.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is treading water near 101.00.
However, diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) could limit further gains in the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Markets continue to expect the Fed to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation back to its 2% target, even as softer-than-expected US labor market data have reduced expectations of a near-term rate hike.
The BoC is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, while keeping the door open to rate cuts if inflation continues to ease.
Technically, the broader outlook remains bullish, with USD/CAD consolidating in a two-week range near levels last seen in April 2025.
Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, USD/CAD holds well above the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which reinforces a bullish near-term bias. Price is also holding over prior horizontal support at 1.4000 and the more immediate floor at 1.4150, keeping the pair well-supported despite a mild loss of momentum signaled by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing from overbought territory near 68 and a softening Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line slipping modestly below zero.
On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.4150, with a stronger structural cushion at the 1.4000 horizontal level. Below these, the 200-day SMA at 1.3845 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3822 form a deeper demand zone that would likely underpin any more pronounced pullback while the broader bullish structure remains intact.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The American currency gained ground as traders focused on recent events in the Strait of Hormuz.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Oil Prices Rally
DXY 070726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the rally in the oil markets. An LNG carrier from Qatar was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. A Saudi oil tanker also suffered damage. Iran insists that ships should go through approved routes.
The nearest resistance level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 101.15 – 101.30 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 101.30 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range.
EUR/USD Tests Support At 1.1420 – 1.1435
EUR/USD 070726 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as demand for risk assets declined after attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders also focused on the Industrial Production report from Germany. The report indicated that Industrial Production increased by +0.9% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%.
Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435. This support level has already been tested several times and proved its strength. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1420 level, it will get to the test of the 50 MA at 1.1410. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the support level at 1.1350 – 1.1365.
GBP/USD Retreats Amid Falling Demand For Risk Assets GBP/USD 070726 4h Chart GBP/USD is losing ground as traders focus on general strength of the American currency.
From the technical point of view, GBP/USD failed to settle above the 1.3400 level and pulled back towards 1.3370. The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range.
If GBP/USD declines below the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3285. In case GBP/USD manages to settle below the 50 MA, it will move towards the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
USD/CAD Tests The 1.4200 Level
USD/CAD 070726 4h Chart USD/CAD remains stuck below the resistance at 1.4225 – 1.4240 as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets. Gold and silver are losing ground, which is bearish for the Canadian currency. Other commodity-related currencies are moving lower in today’s trading session.
If USD/CAD settles below the 50 MA at 1.4204, it will head towards the support level at 1.4125 – 1.4140. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the resistance level at 1.4225 – 1.4240 to gain upside momentum in the near term. A move above 1.4240 will push USD/CAD towards the next resistance at 1.4335 – 1.4350.
USD/JPY Remains Stuck Near Key Resistance Level USD/JPY 070726 4h Chart USD/JPY is losing some ground as traders react to the Household Spending report from Japan. The report indicated that Household Spending increased by +3.7% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +1.4%. On a year-over-year basis, USD/JPY declined by -0.4%, compared to analyst consensus of -2.5%.
The technical picture remains unchanged as USD/JPY is trying to settle above the resistance level at 161.50 – 162.00. If USD/JPY settles above the 162.00 level, it will move towards recent highs near 162.80. A move above the 162.80 level will push USD/JPY towards the 165.00 level.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
