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JPMorgan believes the new Hyperliquid partnership will weigh on earnings for both firms, yet says pro-crypto legislation backed by President Donald Trump‘s administration could ultimately prove to be the more important story for investors.
Hyperliquid Changes The EconomicsCoinbase and Circle announced in May that Hyperliquid would adopt USDC as its preferred stablecoin, a move designed to deepen the token’s presence across one of crypto’s fastest-growing decentralized exchanges.
The catch? JPMorgan says the revised arrangement significantly changes how the two companies split the economics.
Coinbase will now classify USDC held on Hyperliquid as “on-platform,” allowing it to earn reserve income before paying 90% of that revenue back to Hyperliquid. The firm estimates roughly $6 billion of USDC, or about 8% of the circulating supply, now sits on the platform.
The result is a near-term revenue headwind for both companies, prompting JPMorgan to lower earnings estimates. The brokerage now expects the full impact of the revised economics to become more visible during the second half of 2026, alongside a softer crypto trading environment marked by lower volumes, weaker digital asset prices and declining DeFi activity.
The Prisoner’s DilemmaJPMorgan argues the Hyperliquid deal highlights a broader challenge for the Coinbase-Circle partnership.
Rather than simply sharing the benefits of USDC adoption, both companies are incentivized to compete for distribution partners. Winning those relationships could increasingly require giving away a larger share of the economics, creating what the analysts describe as a classic “prisoner’s dilemma.”
In other words, USDC adoption may continue to grow while the value each company captures from that growth gradually shrinks.
Washington May Be The Bigger CatalystThat’s why JPMorgan believes investors shouldn’t lose sight of the bigger picture.
The firm continues to view U.S. digital asset market structure legislation as a potential turning point for the industry, even as the path to passage becomes more uncertain with the Senate’s legislative calendar narrowing ahead of its August recess.
Clearer crypto rules could encourage greater institutional participation, improve market confidence and accelerate development across the digital asset ecosystem—all of which could expand demand for USDC.
JPMorgan also expects higher interest rates to support reserve income through 2027, particularly for Coinbase, even after trimming its forecasts for USDC balances.
For investors, Hyperliquid may explain the next few quarters. But if Trump’s crypto agenda succeeds in creating a clearer regulatory framework, the long-term winner may not be the company that negotiated the better deal—it could be the one serving a much larger stablecoin market.
Photo: Skorzewiak on Shutterstock.com
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A hacker exploited Ostium, a decentralized perpetuals exchange on Arbitrum, in a sophisticated oracle manipulation scheme that resulted in the loss of $18 million in USDC from the protocol’s liquidity vault.
Attacker exploited automated price-feed systemBlockchain security firm Blockaid first detected the exploit, which targeted a key component of Ostium’s price automation setup known as the PriceUpKeep forwarder. The attacker submitted falsified oracle reports featuring future-dated timestamps, effectively making losing trades appear as if they were profitable.
This manipulation enabled the attacker to trigger an $18 million payout from Ostium’s vault. Blockaid’s analysis shows that the exploit succeeded by leveraging the privileged role of automation components responsible for reporting on real-world asset prices.
The attacker used a registered PriceUpKeep forwarder to push manipulated price data with future timestamps, forcing the protocol to recognize fabricated profits and enabling an $18 million USDC withdrawal from the liquidity vault.
The exploit underscores persistent vulnerabilities across decentralized finance, particularly in the systems that automate and verify price reporting from real-world sources onto blockchains.
Mini dictionary: Ostium is a decentralized trading protocol on Arbitrum that enables users to trade perpetual contracts of real-world assets such as gold, foreign currencies, and equity indices, typically with high leverage and onchain settlement in stablecoins.
Pattern of DeFi oracle system vulnerabilitiesIncidents similar to the Ostium attack have plagued other decentralized protocols, with DeFi platforms frequently targeted through exploits involving oracle or keeper infrastructure. Just last week, $6 million was drained from Summer.fi in a comparable attack where privileged components manipulated the timing or content of price data.
Ostium’s system relies on a third-party network called Gelato to automate the delivery of real-world price data to its onchain contracts. The central PriceUpKeep contract writes the latest asset prices to Arbitrum whenever a user executes a trade. Attackers have increasingly targeted these automated update mechanisms, seeking out weaknesses in how and when price data is written to the blockchain.
By controlling or spoofing trusted automation components, bad actors can fabricate trading outcomes on paper and extract protocol funds by triggering illegitimate settlements.
PlatformDate of ExploitLoss AmountAttack VectorOstiumJune 2026$18 millionOracle manipulation via PriceUpKeepSummer.fiJune 2026$6 millionKeeper/oracle system breachOstium’s growth and funding backgroundBefore the exploit, Ostium had raised a total of $27.8 million, including a $24 million Series A co-led by venture investors General Catalyst and Jump Crypto in late 2025. The protocol had also reported over $50 billion in cumulative trading volume, reflecting strong user interest in onchain derivatives tied to real-world markets.
At the time of the incident, Ostium allowed traders to access commodities, forex pairs, and equity indices, offering up to 200x leverage and USDC-settled contracts.
Ongoing investigations are underway after security alerts surfaced, with the extent of the attacker’s identity and the possibility of recovering the drained funds currently unknown.
Incidents like Ostium’s highlight the risks associated with DeFi protocols’ increasing reliance on complex automation and oracle infrastructure, especially when these systems are entrusted with large amounts of investor capital.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Ostium, an Arbitrum-based perpetual trading protocol built around real-world assets, halted all trading on July 15, 2026 after confirming a serious anomaly in its Ostium Liquidity Provider vault. The protocol did not mince words: something had gone badly wrong with the OLP vault, and trading would stay paused until the team figured out what.
Security firm Blockaid identified the root cause as an oracle exploit tied to a compromised signer key. The attacker got hold of a cryptographic key that the protocol uses to validate external price data, then used it to feed the system a fabricated price report that looked completely legitimate. Because the price feed appeared valid, the protocol had no reason to reject the trades built on top of it. The attacker effectively engineered synthetic profits out of thin air, and those profits came directly out of the OLP vault.
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Estimates put the total drainage between $18M and $23.7M in USDC. The vault held roughly $32.7M before the attack. After it, approximately $9M remained, a decline of around 72% in TVL. The stolen funds were subsequently converted to ETH and dispersed across multiple wallets. Ostium confirmed that trader funds and open positions are preserved in a frozen state.
Ostium’s OLP vault works by letting liquidity providers deposit USDC in exchange for OLP tokens, earning fees generated by trading activity. That structure makes the vault the natural counterparty to every trade on the platform. When trades generate synthetic profits via a rigged price feed, those profits flow out of the very pool that LPs funded.
Ostium had built genuine momentum before this happened. The protocol launched its mainnet vault in 2024 and had accumulated over $33B in cumulative trading volume by the time of the exploit. The protocol’s focus on real-world assets, including commodities and forex, gave it a niche that differentiated it from crypto-native perpetuals platforms. Audited smart contracts and liquidity incentive campaigns were part of the pitch to users and LPs considering whether to park capital there.
For anyone with exposure to Ostium, whether as a liquidity provider holding OLP tokens or a trader with open positions, the key variables are: whether the attacker can be identified and funds recovered, how Ostium structures any reimbursement for affected LPs, and whether the protocol can credibly harden its oracle infrastructure before reopening. Ostium has committed to transparency and is working with security experts.
For investors evaluating liquidity provision in DeFi protocols broadly, this incident is a useful reminder that smart contract audits do not cover every attack surface. Key management, signer infrastructure, and oracle trust assumptions sit outside the audit scope and represent real, exploitable risk.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Ostium, a decentralized perpetuals exchange operating on the Arbitrum network, experienced a significant security breach on Wednesday that resulted in a loss of approximately $18 million in USDC. Attackers gained access to a critical oracle signer key and manipulated the platform’s price feed, leading to artificial trading profits and a major drain on assets.
Attack exploited price oracle via compromised keyBlockchain security firm Blockaid reported that the exploit was executed using a registered PriceUpKeep forwarder and future-dated oracle price reports. By submitting these manipulated inputs, the attackers were able to generate large, fake profits from trading activities. The resulting payouts were issued from Ostium’s liquidity vault directly in USDC, a widely used stablecoin issued by Circle.
Blockaid stated that nearly one-third of Ostium’s total liquidity, which amounted to about $63 million at the time of the breach, was drained in the attack. The manipulation targeted Ostium’s core mechanism for pricing assets, which relies on oracles—external data feeds that set current trading values.
Mini dictionary: Oracle signer key — A cryptographic key used by trusted entities to validate and submit price or data reports to blockchain networks. If compromised, it can enable attackers to falsify on-chain information, undermining protocol security.
Ostium posted on X, “We are aware of the issue with the OLP vault. We have paused all trading. The team is investigating.”
Vulnerability shakes decentralized finance sectorOstium functions as a decentralized exchange (DEX), enabling users to trade perpetual futures that track real-world assets such as stocks, commodities, foreign exchange markets, and indices. As a typical DEX, the platform allows users to retain custody of their funds and does not require personal identification.
This incident highlights persistent vulnerabilities in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. More than $840 million has already been stolen from DeFi protocols in the first five months of 2026 alone, with notable attacks on KelpDAO, which lost $292 million, and Drift Protocol, which lost $285 million. In June, hackers also stole over $25 million from Resolv Labs.
ProtocolLoss AmountDateOstium$18 millionJune 2026KelpDAO$292 millionEarly 2026Drift Protocol$285 millionEarly 2026Resolv Labs$25 millionJune 2026Rising concern over AI-driven exploitsSecurity professionals are increasingly warning that advances in artificial intelligence are making it easier to discover vulnerabilities within smart contracts and blockchain infrastructure. Danny Jenkins, CEO and co-founder of cybersecurity firm ThreatLocker, noted that modern AI systems are outperforming humans in reviewing code and identifying weaknesses.
Jenkins explained, “AI is far better at reviewing code than most people and finding potential vulnerabilities in it,” and emphasized that newer models like Mythos could make the discovery process even more effective, signaling an imminent major challenge for security teams.
He added that it is only a matter of time before malicious actors leverage state-of-the-art AI tools to exploit these vulnerabilities at scale.
Recently, security researcher Taylor Hornby used Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 model to uncover a four-year-old counterfeiting bug in Zcash, demonstrating that advanced AI tools can now identify even complex and longstanding software flaws.
Mini dictionary: Zcash — A privacy-focused cryptocurrency that uses advanced cryptography to shield transaction details. Security vulnerabilities in such protocols can undermine privacy or allow unauthorized coin creation.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Ostium has halted trading after an exploit tied to a compromised oracle signer key drained nearly $18 million USDC from its liquidity vault, according to blockchain security firm Blockaid.
Summary
Blockaid linked Ostium’s $18 million exploit to a compromised oracle signer key. The attacker drained up to 28% of the protocol’s $63 million liquidity vault. Ostium halted trading as investigators probe the oracle-based attack. Blockaid reported that the attacker gained control of an oracle signer private key, allowing them to bypass the protocol’s verification process and submit future-dated price reports that favored their trades. Using a registered PriceUpKeep forwarder, the attacker repeatedly opened and closed positions through delegated actions, extracting profits without taking genuine market risk.
🚨 Blockaid detected an @Ostium Vault exploit on Arbitrum.
An attacker used a registered PriceUpKeep forwarder and future-dated authorized oracle reports to create artificial trade profit, triggering a ~$18M USDC payout from the vault.
More details in 🧵
— Blockaid (@blockaid_) July 15, 2026 The security firm said the exploit triggered around 20 trading loops that steadily drained funds from Ostium’s main vault. On-chain records show the attacker withdrew between $11.86 million and $18 million USDC, equal to roughly 28% of the protocol’s $63 million total value locked at the time of the incident. The primary exploit transaction can be verified on Arbiscan.
Ostium, which operates on Arbitrum, offers decentralized perpetual trading for tokenized real-world assets, including equities, commodities, foreign exchange markets and stock indices.
Oracle key compromise enabled repeated profit extraction Instead of exploiting a flaw in smart contract code, the attacker abused trusted oracle infrastructure after obtaining a valid signer key. According to Blockaid, the manipulated oracle reports allowed favorable prices to pass protocol checks, making each trade appear legitimate while transferring losses to the liquidity vault.
The incident has renewed attention on oracle security as decentralized finance protocols increasingly depend on external data feeds for pricing. Blockaid attributed the exploit to compromised signing credentials rather than a pricing error or market manipulation through normal trading activity.
The protocol has since paused trading while the investigation continues. Users have been advised to follow Ostium’s official communication channels for updates on withdrawals and any further recovery measures.
Update: All trader funds and open positions are currently preserved as-is (frozen). Funds in the trading storage contract are paused. The team is actively investigating with relevant security experts. We will provide updates as they come. https://t.co/zDe8gapmS3
— Ostium (@Ostium) July 15, 2026 Institutional backing failed to prevent another security setback Before the exploit, Ostium had raised about $27.8 million from investors including General Catalyst, Jump Crypto, Coinbase Ventures, Wintermute and GSR. The incident occurred despite the project’s institutional backing and multiple security audits, highlighting that infrastructure outside audited smart contracts can still become a critical point of failure.
The attack also adds to a series of recent security incidents affecting crypto platforms. Earlier this month, crypto.news reported that Ctrl Wallet announced it would permanently shut down after a separate security exploit affecting some Cardano wallets.
The company gave users until Aug. 3 to move their crypto assets before wallet functions, including sending, receiving and swapping, are disabled, leaving only recovery phrase exports available.
Elsewhere in the Arbitrum ecosystem, Secret Network recently proposed migrating its SCRT token from Cosmos to Arbitrum, citing security concerns, weaker liquidity and aging code on its current network. The proposal includes a one-time Sept. 1 snapshot that would distribute a new ERC-20 SCRT token on Arbitrum to eligible native and staked SCRT holders.
As projects continue expanding onto Arbitrum, the Ostium exploit demonstrates that securing oracle infrastructure remains as important as auditing smart contracts. According to Blockaid’s findings, a single compromised signer key was enough to bypass trusted price verification and inflict multimillion-dollar losses within hours.
Solana price has climbed to around $78 on July 15 after a 250 million USDC mint on the network, combined with softer U.S. inflation data, injected fresh buying momentum across crypto markets.
Summary
Solana price jumped toward $78 after a 250 million USDC mint boosted on-chain liquidity and risk appetite improved. Technical charts show a breakout above a descending channel, with $80 emerging as the next key resistance. Rising active addresses, institutional developments, and liquidation clusters support upside, while $70-$75 remains critical support. The move gathered pace after the USDC Treasury minted 250 million USDC on Solana, adding immediate liquidity to the ecosystem as traders returned to risk assets following the latest U.S. inflation print. Capital quickly rotated into Solana-based decentralized exchanges, helping SOL recover from recent weakness while the wider crypto market also moved higher.
Earlier selling pressure had left Solana trading well below its May highs as geopolitical tensions, institutional distributions and weaker on-chain activity weighed on sentiment.
Today’s rebound, however, arrives with stronger participation. Daily trading volume has climbed above $2.1 billion, suggesting buyers, rather than short-term speculation alone, have supported the advance.
Technical structure favors another test of $80 The daily chart shows Solana (SOL) price holding above a long-standing support area between $70 and $75 after repeatedly defending that range over recent weeks. Price now trades above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $73.3-$74 while remaining below the declining 100-day moving average around $80.3 and well beneath the 200-day moving average near $91.
Solana daily price chart — July 15 | Source: crypto.news A sustained close above the 100-day average would expose the psychologically important $80 level before opening room toward the May swing high near $82.
The 4-hour chart adds another constructive development. SOL has broken above a descending channel that had contained price action since early July, while the RSI has recovered to roughly 52 after bouncing from oversold territory.
Solana 4-hour price chart — July 15 | Source: crypto.news The Aroon Up reading near 93 also holds well above the Aroon Down line, suggesting buyers currently control short-term momentum, although resistance remains concentrated just below $80.
Derivatives positioning reinforces that technical picture. CoinGlass liquidation data shows dense short liquidation clusters stacked between $78.5 and $80, with another concentration extending toward $81.5.
Solana liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass A decisive push through those levels could trigger forced buying from bearish positions, while the largest long liquidation pockets remain clustered around the $76-$76.5 region, making that zone an important area for bulls to defend.
Commenting on the latest setup, analyst Ali Martinez argued that Solana has regained a bullish structure after its SuperTrend indicator flipped positive for the first time since October. He wrote:
“If buying pressure continues to build, $SOL could rally toward $96 or even $121. However, $60 remains the key level to watch.”
Outside the charts, network fundamentals have also improved. Active addresses have climbed toward seven million, while anticipation continues to build ahead of the Alpenglow upgrade, which is expected to reduce transaction finality to around 150 milliseconds later this quarter.
Solana has also strengthened its institutional footprint through its partnership with SBI Holdings to expand on-chain financial infrastructure in Japan, while tokenized real-world assets on the network have grown to roughly $3.3 billion.
A break below key support would weaken the bullish outlook Bullish momentum still faces several hurdles. The declining 100-day moving average around $80 represents the first major technical barrier, and failure to clear that level could keep SOL trapped inside its multi-week consolidation range.
A return below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages would shift attention back to the $75 support area, where leveraged long positions remain concentrated.
Macro risks also remain unresolved. Fresh geopolitical tensions, another rise in Treasury yields, or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data could reduce expectations for monetary easing and pressure risk assets across the crypto market.
If selling accelerates and Solana loses the $70-$75 support zone, the bullish breakout thesis would weaken considerably, while Ali Martinez’s longer-term invalidation level near $60 would return to focus.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
CoinShares noted that Open USD, a stablecoin project driven by a banking-backed consortium, could directly impact Circle’s USDC distribution economic model and profit margins, as it plans to allocate reserve revenues to participating partners rather than retaining them primarily with the issuer. This mechanism may raise USDC’s costs for maintaining its circulation network and, following its launch in the second half of 2026, exert more substantial competitive pressure on Circle. However, CoinShares also pointed out that Open USD has not yet officially launched, with key details such as its reserve structure and fee model still undisclosed. By contrast, USDC retains existing advantages including liquidity, exchange platform integration, decentralized finance (DeFi) and payment scenario integration. Thus, Open USD is currently viewed as a credible challenger to USDC, though its actual impact remains unproven. On July 1, Open Standard announced the launch of Open USD (OUSD), a new stablecoin for global fund transfers, adding that over 140 enterprises have joined its ecosystem, spanning financial, payment and crypto industry players including Visa, Stripe, Mastercard, American Express, BlackRock, BNY, DBS, Coinbase, OKX, MetaMask, Aave, Ripple, Fireblocks, Solana and Polygon. Open USD follows three core design principles: enabling zero-cost, large-scale minting and redemption for enterprises; returning all reserve asset yields to partners after deducting a small management fee; and being governed by a board comprising independent firm Open Standard and its partners, rather than controlled by a single issuer.
Crypto clearing startup Glacis Labs has closed a $6.8 million seed round. The round was led by Lightspeed Faction, with participation from Franklin Templeton, Coinbase Ventures, A.GAIN (formerly IDC Ventures), Protein Capital, and Techni Ventures, structured as an equity-plus-token warrant deal. The funding will primarily be used to expand its core product, the ZeroDelta platform, and support the growth of its engineering, compliance, and marketing teams. ZeroDelta is a multi-chain clearing platform that facilitates matching, netting, and final settlement of cross-chain digital assets. It currently focuses on serving stablecoins and has processed over $1 billion in cumulative trading volume to date.
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At 14:18 UTC on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, a single Arbitrum transaction bundled twenty calls into Ostium’s trading contracts and walked out with roughly $11.86 million in USDC. The recipient wallet had opened its first position minutes earlier with a rounding-error deposit. By the time most people saw the security alerts, the money was already moving out.
Ostium is one of the more credible names in on-chain real-world-asset trading: a perpetuals exchange for stocks, commodities, indices, and currencies, backed by General Catalyst and Jump Crypto. What makes it work is a custom price layer that decides what every trade settles at. That layer is exactly what got turned against it, and not on some exotic asset either.
This piece reflects what was verifiable on the afternoon of July 15, 2026, a few hours after the first transaction. The on-chain facts here (the transaction, the contracts, the amount that moved, the receiving wallet) are confirmed directly against block explorers and are cited below so you can check them yourself. What is not settled is the reconciled total loss and the exact authorization failure that made the attack possible; both await Ostium’s own accounting. Treat the confirmed transactions as bedrock and any single loss total as provisional until the team or an independent analyst publishes one.
What Is Ostium, and Why Does It Matter? Ostium is a decentralized perpetuals exchange on Arbitrum whose pitch is real-world assets: leveraged exposure to gold, oil, the S&P, EUR/USD, or individual equities, all from a self-custodial wallet, on markets that traditionally close at 4pm and gate retail behind brokers. It is one of the clearer product-market fits in the RWA narrative. It also lists the major crypto pairs, BTC and ETH among them, and that detail matters more than it looks.
The traction is real. Ostium was founded by Harvard alumni, raised a $3.5 million seed in 2023 led by General Catalyst and LocalGlobe (with SIG, DeFi Alliance, and Balaji Srinivasan among the backers), and in December 2025 added a $20 million Series A co-led by General Catalyst and Jump Crypto, bringing total funding to roughly $27.8 million. As of its December 2025 raise, Ostium had advertised more than $25 billion in cumulative trading volume, including around $5 billion in metals. On July 15, DefiLlama showed Ostium’s TVL near $63 million.
Traders’ collateral and the counterparty liquidity that pays out winning trades sit in Ostium’s vault, called the OLP (Ostium Liquidity Pool). Liquidity providers deposit USDC and, in effect, take the other side of the book. That vault is what an attacker wants to reach, and on July 15 someone found a path to it.
How Ostium Prices a Trade, and Where the Trust Sits To understand the exploit you have to understand how Ostium gets a price at all.
A crypto perp can read an on-chain price from deep DEX liquidity. Gold and Apple can’t be priced that way, because they don’t live on-chain. So Ostium built its own pull-based oracle system, with real-world-asset feeds operated by Stork Network and crypto feeds from Chainlink Data Streams. In a pull design, prices aren’t sitting on-chain continuously. Instead, a signed price report is delivered on-chain at the moment it’s needed: when a trade opens, when it closes, when a limit order or liquidation fires. Automated “keeper” or forwarder services carry those signed reports to the contract and trigger settlement.
This is a sensible architecture for assets that trade off-chain. It also concentrates enormous trust in one place. Whoever is authorized to submit a price report effectively decides the number your PnL is calculated against. If that authorization leaks, or if the check that a submitted price is fresh and legitimate is missing or weak, then the party feeding the price can trade against a number they chose. That is the failure surface, and it is a close cousin of the one that broke Resolv’s USR stablecoin in March, where a single privileged role could mint without on-chain limits.
The Exploit: What the Transaction Shows Here is what the chain shows for the primary transaction, 0x359f8c05…d4870e0, confirmed on both Arbiscan and Blockscout:
It succeeded at 14:18:48 UTC on July 15, 2026. It called executeBatch, running twenty calls that alternated between Ostium’s Trading contract (0x6D0bA1f9…7702411, which Arbiscan labels “Ostium: Trading”) and a contract named OstiumPrivatePriceUpKeep (0xB71ec9eB…3d36), the piece that delivers signed prices on-chain. USDC moved through Ostium’s Trading Storage, Trading Callbacks, and Vault contracts along the way. Every trade in the batch was on pairIndex 0. Ostium’s own subgraph maps pair 0 to BTC/USD, so this was not an exotic real-world-asset market. It was Bitcoin. The trade events show the position opened at a delivered price of exactly $5,000 and closed at roughly $60,000. Bitcoin does not move twelvefold inside one atomic transaction, so at least one of those prices was fabricated and delivered on demand; the exactly-round $5,000 open is the obvious tell. A single deposit of about 1,000 USDC went in. Roughly 11,861,520 USDC came back out to the attacker’s wallet. The same batch that opened and closed the trades also drove OstiumPrivatePriceUpKeep to deliver the $5,000 and $60,000 prices those trades settled against. Whoever sent it therefore held, or had usurped, the right to submit prices, and used it to stand on both sides at once: the price authority and the counterparty were the same operation. The batch came from 0xD1794196…85869 through an entry contract at 0xfE12F636…5bd2E; the trades and the payout belong to 0x321df194…bfd9.
You do not need anyone’s alert to read this. The prices are right there in the trade events: open a Bitcoin long at $5,000, close it near $60,000, collect the difference from the vault, and a ~1,000 USDC deposit comes back as ~$11.86 million. That is not an inference from fund flows, it is in the price fields the contracts recorded. What the trace cannot tell you is how the attacker was allowed to deliver those prices at all, whether a signing key was compromised, a malicious price upkeep was registered, or a validation check on submitted prices was missing or weak. That distinction is the whole post-mortem, and only Ostium can close it.
Here is the part that should unsettle people most. The attacker did this on BTC/USD, the most liquid and most easily cross-checked market Ostium runs, not on gold, not on a thinly traded stock, not on an overnight forex cross. If the pricing layer will accept $5,000 for Bitcoin, the asset was never the point. The authorization to submit a price was.
The Cashout The receiving wallet, 0x321df194…bfd9, is a fresh externally owned account with no prior history and no Arbiscan label yet. It took in the $11.86 million from the primary transaction and additional USDC from several sibling batch transactions sent the same way.
The money did not stay. A few hours later, the wallet held no USDC at all, just about 99.6 ETH (gas-scale, a low six figures) and a spoofed lookalike “ETH” token of the kind that gets airdropped to any address in the news. Where the stablecoin went from there, whether swapped, split across wallets, or bridged off Arbitrum, I did not trace, and the balance snapshot may not be complete. What is clear is that it moved out fast, which is the entire point of moving before a protocol can react. It is the same race Resolv’s attacker ran in March, and the same reason “we’ve paused the protocol” statements so often land after the funds are already gone.
How Big Was the Hit? This is where the honest answer is a range, not a headline.
Figure Value Status Largest single transaction ~$11.86M USDC to the attacker Tx confirmed on-chain; amount read from explorer transfer logs Additional sibling transactions Several, same pattern Confirmed they exist; total not cleanly summed Ostium TVL on July 15 ~$63M (DefiLlama) Live figure; may lag the incident So the floor is real: at least the better part of $12 million left in the primary transaction, going by the explorer transfer logs, and the same wallet pulled more through several sibling batches I did not fully sum. Loss estimates circulating on launch day ran higher, into the high teens of millions, alongside a “$34 million vault, 35% drained” framing. I could not confirm those numbers, and note that a $34 million liquidity vault could sit inside the ~$63 million total TVL DefiLlama shows, so even those two are not necessarily in conflict. The honest position is a confirmed floor and an open total until Ostium or an independent analyst publishes a reconciled figure.
The Uncomfortable Questions How did an attacker become authorized to submit prices? Everything about this incident routes back to that question. A pull oracle only works if the set of parties allowed to deliver signed prices is tightly controlled and their reports are validated on arrival. Whether the attacker obtained a legitimate signer key, got a malicious forwarder registered, or exploited a gap in how reports are checked, the outcome is the same: they got to name the price that settled their own trades.
Where were the on-chain guardrails? The recurring lesson of 2026’s exploits is that off-chain trust needs on-chain limits behind it. Was there a bound on how far a settlement price could deviate from the last accepted one? A freshness or timestamp check strict enough to reject a “future-dated” report? A per-block or per-account cap on vault payouts? The batched, atomic nature of the theft suggests at least one of those checks was missing or bypassable.
What about the audits? This was not an unreviewed protocol. Zellic audited the contracts in early 2024 and returned 19 findings, two of them critical, with the price-upkeep and vault contracts in scope; it even raised upkeep-specific issues at the time, one titled “Chainlink feed ID not checked in upkeep.” Pashov Audit Group ran a further review in September 2025, and Ostium also lists a ThreeSigma audit, a Chaos Labs economic audit, and an Immunefi bug bounty. Two things stand out anyway. Zellic’s 2024 engagement expressly put “key custody” and “infrastructure relating to the project” out of scope, which is close to where the abuse of a registered PriceUpKeep would live. And the September 2025 review covered only the trading-engine contracts, not any price-upkeep or vault contract. The exact component the attacker used, OstiumPrivatePriceUpKeep, was either reviewed years ago on an older design or left out of the most recent pass entirely. Audits cut risk; they do not certify its absence, least of all for the price-authorization plumbing that sits at the very edge of what a contract audit covers.
The Asset Was Never the Point The intuitive worry about an RWA perp is the exotic feed. Gold, a single stock, an overnight forex cross: none of them have a deep on-chain market to check a submitted price against, so a bad number is harder to catch. That worry is legitimate and worth keeping. But it is not what happened here. The attack ran on Bitcoin, where a fabricated $5,000 print should have been the easiest thing in the world to reject. The weak point sat upstream of the asset, in whatever governs who may submit a price and whether the contracts bound-check it before paying out. An RWA venue carries that risk on top of the exotic-feed risk, not instead of it.
Ostium is not a fly-by-night project. It has real funding, real volume, and a design many people saw as one of the better expressions of the RWA thesis, this site’s coverage of onchain forex and tokenized metals included. That is exactly why the incident matters. A well-funded, name-backed team let its pricing layer accept $5,000 for the most-watched asset in crypto. The custom-oracle problem is not a rough edge on some immature protocol, and it is not confined to the exotic assets everyone was worried about. It is a category risk that the whole “bring global markets on-chain” movement has to solve before it asks users to post real size.
What Happens Next In the hours after the attack, Ostium had not posted an official statement or a loss figure. Expect the usual sequence: an acknowledgment, a pause of affected functions, a claim that the team is investigating and tracing funds, and eventually a post-mortem. The questions that post-mortem needs to answer are specific: how price-submission authorization was secured, what validation a submitted report had to pass, whether a key was compromised or a forwarder maliciously registered, and what caps or circuit breakers stood between a “profitable” trade and the vault.
For anyone with funds in Ostium, particularly OLP liquidity providers who sit on the counterparty side of every trade, the practical advice is the same it always is in the first hours of an incident: check your exposure directly, watch Ostium’s official channels rather than secondhand figures, and don’t assume a stated total is final.
And for everyone building or allocating in RWA land, file this next to Resolv. The mechanisms differ, but both trace back to the same weak point: a single privileged component, trusted off-chain, with too little standing between it and the money on-chain. RWA protocols are lining up to put a lot more of the world’s assets behind components exactly like that. This is what it looks like when one of them gives.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
According to EmberCN’s monitoring, an hour and a half ago, the DeBank address under the username musti_akrep exploited a vulnerability on Perp DEX Ostium to gain 23.75 million USDC, transferred the funds to the Arbitrum blockchain, and immediately converted the USDC into 12,085 ETH at a purchase price of $1,965.
Crypto clearing startup Glacis Labs has closed a $6.8 million seed round. The round was led by Lightspeed Faction, with participation from Franklin Templeton, Coinbase Ventures, A.GAIN (formerly IDC Ventures), Protein Capital, and Techni Ventures, structured as an equity-plus-token warrant deal. The funding will primarily be used to expand its core product, the ZeroDelta platform, and support the growth of its engineering, compliance, and marketing teams. ZeroDelta is a multi-chain clearing platform that facilitates matching, netting, and final settlement of cross-chain digital assets. It currently focuses on serving stablecoins and has processed over $1 billion in cumulative trading volume to date.
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced today that the U.S. Mint will produce a $1 commemorative "gold coin" — gold in appearance but containing no actual gold or precious metals — to mark the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. The obverse features a portrait of President Trump in a suit and tie, paired with the inscriptions "LIBERTY," "IN GOD WE TRUST," and the dates 1776-2026; the reverse displays the U.S. Great Seal eagle, marked with "$1" and "250." The coin is expected to be released this fall. The move breaks the longstanding tradition that living presidents typically do not appear on U.S. currency, with Bessent describing it as a "lasting symbol of patriotism" and "a commemoration of the legacy of freedom."
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Kraken Launches Customized Crypto Vaults, Allowing Users to Earn Yields on Idle Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Stablecoins
Kraken Institutional has announced a partnership with on-chain yield platform Upshift, allowing qualified institutional clients to earn returns on idle Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins and other crypto assets directly within Kraken’s compliant custody framework. Unlike traditional pooled vaults, Upshift will build dedicated, customized vaults for each client, fully tailored to their investment strategies, risk parameters, liquidity needs and asset portfolios. Assets will be allocated to these non-custodial vaults, then deployed to selected on-chain contracts, with clients’ segregated Kraken custody accounts receiving a receipt token.
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According to EmberCN’s monitoring, an hour and a half ago, the DeBank address under the username musti_akrep exploited a vulnerability on Perp DEX Ostium to gain 23.75 million USDC, transferred the funds to the Arbitrum blockchain, and immediately converted the USDC into 12,085 ETH at a purchase price of $1,965.
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Iran: No negotiation plans at present, focusing on defense.
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Aster DEX launches SKHYB "Hold-to-Use" campaign: Hold SKHYB tokens to serve as collateral for perpetual contract trading, with participants sharing a $15,000 prize pool.
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Mizuho has downgraded Circle Internet Group from Neutral to Underperform and cut its price target from $85 to $50, citing competition from Open USD.
Summary
Mizuho cut Circle’s price target to $50, warning Open USD could further squeeze stablecoin margins. Open USD shares reserve earnings with partners, challenging Circle’s existing distribution economics around USDC globally. Circle also faces margin pressure from Hyperliquid revenue-sharing terms despite recent federal banking approval milestone. The Japanese investment bank said the stablecoin model could pressure the economics behind Circle’s USDC business.
According to a CoinDesk report, analysts led by Dan Dolev said Open USD “could fundamentally alter CRCL’s business model” by changing how reserve income flows to distributors. Circle shares traded at $62.63 when the report was published.
Mizuho cuts Circle’s 2027 earnings outlook Mizuho raised its estimate for Circle’s distribution and transaction expense ratio in 2027 from 64% to 73%. The bank also lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast from $1.09 billion to $699 million, about 25% below the analyst consensus cited in the report.
The bank said higher interest rates could support reserve income but may not fully offset pressure from changing stablecoin economics. Its concern centers on how much yield Circle can retain after paying distribution partners, including companies that help USDC reach users and financial platforms.
Open USD challenges the existing stablecoin model Open USD was announced on June 30 by Open Standard, with more than 140 companies participating in its ecosystem. Partners include Coinbase, Mastercard, Stripe and BlackRock. The project says businesses will be able to mint and redeem the stablecoin without fees or artificial volume limits.
Under the model, partners receive reserve earnings after a small management fee covers operating costs. That differs from Circle’s structure, where reserve income is generated before revenue-sharing payments to major distribution partners. As previously reported, Open USD’s announcement raised questions over whether Circle’s own partners could support a rival while continuing to distribute USDC.
Coinbase relationship adds another pressure point Mizuho also pointed to Circle’s revenue-sharing relationship with Coinbase. The bank said the agreement is expected to come up for renegotiation in August, and Coinbase’s participation in Open USD could give it more leverage in future talks.
A separate warning came from JPMorgan. As reported by crypto.news, the bank cut earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase after a new USDC revenue-sharing arrangement with Hyperliquid. JPMorgan said the deal could reduce reserve income retained by both companies even if USDC usage grows.
Circle continues to expand USDC infrastructure The downgrade comes as Circle expands its regulatory and payments footprint.Circle data showed USDC circulation at about $73 billion as of July 13, down from $77 billion at the end of the first quarter.
Circle also recently received final approval to establish Circle National Trust. The federally regulated entity will initially focus on digital asset custody for Circle and its affiliates, with possible future services for selected institutional clients.
The company is also expanding USDC use in Asia. JCB and Circle announced a pilot covering cross-border treasury transfers and possible merchant payments in Japan. The project will start with JCB’s internal transfers before the companies assess wider retail payment uses.
Mizuho’s downgrade focuses on Circle’s ability to protect margins as stablecoin competition changes how reserve income is shared. Open USD has not proved it can match USDC’s distribution or liquidity, but its partner-led model creates a new pricing benchmark. Circle’s earnings path will depend partly on USDC supply, interest rates and future revenue-sharing agreements.
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, whale address '0xf29' has deposited 5 million USDC into HyperLiquid, placed a TWAP order to open a CXMT short position with 1x leverage, and the short position is currently being increased.
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15 July 2026 | 10:12 Interactive Brokers has added nine cryptocurrencies to its trading platform and enabled clients to move dollar value out of their brokerage accounts through stablecoins, extending a service that previously focused on inbound funding.
According to the company’s July 14 announcement, eligible clients can now convert U.S. dollars held at Interactive Brokers into USDC, PayPal USD (PYUSD) or Ripple USD (RLUSD) and send the tokens to an external wallet. Transfers are processed around the clock, including weekends and holidays.
Nine Tokens Join the Trading Platform AAVE, UNI and PAXG are also available through Paxos Trust Company. PAXG differs from the other additions because each token represents ownership of allocated physical gold held in professional vaults, giving brokerage clients tokenized commodity exposure alongside conventional cryptocurrencies.
The convenience comes with a custody trade-off. Interactive Brokers states that it neither executes nor custodies the digital assets: positions are held with Paxos or Zero Hash and fall outside SIPC protection. SEC staff has noted that non-security crypto assets may not be covered by a specific insolvency framework, leaving recovery dependent on the custodian’s account structure and applicable bankruptcy law. IBKR still receives part of each trading commission as a referral fee while its partners retain the custody exposure.
Stablecoins Become a Two-Way Brokerage Rail Interactive Brokers began allowing clients to fund accounts with stablecoins earlier in 2026. The latest update completes the opposite side of that process: cash can now leave an IBKR account as a supported digital dollar and arrive in a custodial or self-custody wallet.
The change makes stablecoins more than a deposit method. Clients can move capital between blockchain wallets and a brokerage account without waiting for traditional banking hours, then use the converted funds to access stocks, bonds, options, futures and other products available through IBKR.
“We believe digital assets should be integrated into a client’s broader financial experience, not treated separately,” Interactive Brokers CEO Milan Galik said.
Eligible clients can also transfer supported cryptocurrencies directly between external wallets and their IBKR-linked Paxos or Zero Hash accounts instead of selling the assets before moving platforms.
IBKR Is Opening Its Brokerage Ledger to Onchain Liquidity The nine listings expand the trading menu, but bidirectional transfers change the platform’s underlying function. Stablecoin deposits previously allowed clients to move onchain dollars into an IBKR account, where they were converted into cash. The new withdrawal route reverses that flow, allowing brokerage balances to leave as USDC, PYUSD or RLUSD without first passing through a bank wire.
This effectively turns Interactive Brokers into a bridge between traditional securities and external blockchain markets. A client could sell an asset inside the brokerage account, convert the resulting dollars into a stablecoin and transfer that value to a self-custody wallet outside banking hours. The funding rail operates continuously, although the stocks, bonds and other instruments available through IBKR remain subject to their respective market hours.
Interactive Brokers is not taking direct custody risk to provide that connection. Its official disclosures state that Paxos or Zero Hash execute the trades and hold each client’s digital assets in a separate account outside IBKR. The brokerage receives part of the trading commission as a referral fee, giving it a way to monetize crypto access without building its own exchange and custody infrastructure.
External-wallet support also should not be confused with unrestricted transfers. Zero Hash screens wallet addresses against sanctions and internal risk lists before processing movements, and incoming assets linked to high-risk addresses may be placed in quarantine rather than credited immediately. The service therefore combines self-custody access with the compliance controls of a regulated intermediary.
Trading Fees and Regional Restrictions Crypto commissions range from 0.12% to 0.18% of transaction value, depending on monthly volume. Each order carries a $1.75 minimum, capped at 1% of the trade value, with no added spreads or markups. Although IBKR advertises no custody fee, clients maintaining an open Paxos account may incur a $0.15 monthly charge passed through by the broker.
The rollout is not universal. Bidirectional stablecoin funding is unavailable to clients of Interactive Brokers U.K. and Interactive Brokers Ireland, while Irish accounts are also excluded from the newly listed tokens. Availability elsewhere depends on the client’s country of residence and the Interactive Brokers entity serving the account.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
Author
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Per Specter’s monitoring, an executor wallet of LayerZero is suspected to have been attacked, involving multiple blockchains, with total losses of around $2.1 million. The attacker cross-bridged the stolen assets to Ethereum via Stargate and Relay, and currently holds 955 ETH (valued at approximately $1.78 million) and 322,000 USDC.
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A prediction market player turned a $10.8 million loss into an $8 million profit in just two weeks.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a prediction market trader has reversed a massive profit and loss swing in just two weeks. The account had previously accumulated a loss of approximately $10.8 million, but has turned a profit of over $8 million via recent trades. Its notable large wins include: France vs. Spain: $9.9 million in profit; Switzerland vs. Colombia: $3.765 million; Argentina vs. Switzerland: $1.867 million; United States vs. Belgium: $1.759 million.
TLDR: Mizuho downgraded Circle to Underperform, cutting its price target from $85 to $50. OpenUSD’s revenue-sharing model threatens Circle’s core USDC business economics. Mizuho slashed 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $699 million from $1.09 billion. Circle’s August Coinbase renegotiation looms as a key risk to distribution costs. Mizuho, a major Japanese investment bank, has downgraded Circle from Neutral to Underperform. The bank also slashed its price target on the stablecoin issuer sharply.
Circle’s target price dropped from $85 to just $50 per share. Analysts cited emerging competitive threats that could weigh heavily on future earnings.
Mizuho Cites Growing Threat From Rival Stablecoin Model The downgrade stems largely from concerns over OpenUSD, a newly launched stablecoin. Analysts led by Dan Dolev outlined the threat in a Tuesday research note.
The team warned that OpenUSD “could fundamentally alter CRCL’s business model, which relies on retaining a large portion of the treasury yield to drive revenues.” That assessment forms the basis for Mizuho’s sharply lowered outlook.
OpenUSD was unveiled on June 30 by the Open Standard consortium. This group already counts more than 140 partners across major financial sectors.
Notable backers include Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, and BlackRock among others. Their involvement gives OpenUSD substantial credibility and reach within the industry.
Circle’s existing USDC model captures most reserve income before sharing with partners. OpenUSD instead charges a small fee and passes most income along.
This structural difference could force Circle to share more revenue eventually. Distribution partners may push for larger cuts as OpenUSD gains traction.
The timing is notable given Circle’s upcoming negotiation with Coinbase in August. Coinbase remains Circle’s largest and most important distribution partner currently.
Coinbase has already shown support for the OpenUSD initiative publicly. Mizuho’s note suggests this backing could strengthen Coinbase’s position in talks.
Revised Estimates Reflect Deeper Margin Concerns Mizuho adjusted several key financial estimates to reflect these emerging pressures. The bank raised its 2027 distribution and transaction expense ratio forecast.
That figure now sits at 73%, up notably from a prior 64% estimate. Higher costs directly reduce the amount of profit Circle can retain.
Adjusted EBITDA projections fell as a result of these revised assumptions. Mizuho now forecasts $699 million, down from $1.09 billion previously.
This updated figure lands roughly 25% below current Wall Street consensus estimates. Consensus estimates currently sit near $941 million for the same period.
Mizuho noted that higher interest rates alone will not offset the damage. Even improved reserve yields cannot fully counter mounting distribution cost pressures.
Circle shares reacted to the news, slipping about 0.6% in trading. Shares were last seen near $62.63 at the time of publication.
Beyond OpenUSD, Circle faces additional headwinds from other market participants. JPMorgan flagged separate concerns tied to Circle’s partnership with Hyperliquid.
That bank described the arrangement as creating a prisoner’s dilemma dynamic. Together, these reports paint a more cautious picture for Circle’s near-term outlook.
The broader stablecoin sector has also cooled somewhat in recent months. USDC’s circulating supply dropped to roughly $73 billion from March highs.
Total stablecoin market value has shrunk close to $10 billion since May. Softer trading volumes and rising competition both contributed to that decline.
In December 2023, Circle quietly pulled the plug on Heka Funds, a Malta-based trading firm with deep ties to Tether. The reason: suspected market manipulation designed to benefit USDT at USDC’s expense. The full story stayed under wraps until July 14, 2026, when the Financial Times published findings from the subsequent arbitration.
The arbitrator sided with Circle. Heka had sought $49 million in lost profits. It walked away with nothing.
What Heka was actually doing Heka Funds, associated with London’s Abraxas Capital Management, was not some small-time operation. The firm ran large-scale USDC redemptions and arbitrage strategies through Circle’s platform, and by its own account, those strategies had delivered returns exceeding 100% since inception.
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Tether was historically one of Heka’s largest clients. That relationship never made it into Heka’s disclosures to Circle.
The arbitrator found that Heka intentionally withheld its connection to Tether, a fact that turned out to be central to the entire dispute. The arbitrator’s finding on non-disclosure was enough to end Heka’s claim.
The stablecoin market context The stablecoin market had grown to approximately $307 billion by the time the arbitration findings became public, with USDC and USDT accounting for the dominant share of that figure.
Tether has not been named as a direct party to the dispute. The connection runs through Heka’s client relationships, not any formal Tether instruction to manipulate Circle’s markets.
What investors and traders should take from this Heka’s entire arbitration claim collapsed not because Circle couldn’t prove manipulation, but because Heka couldn’t prove it was operating in good faith when it hid a material conflict of interest.
Circle’s willingness to fight a $49 million arbitration claim rather than settle signals that it views platform integrity as a non-negotiable. For retail and institutional investors holding USDC, the short version is that Circle won, and the redemption mechanism functioned as intended under stress. The less comfortable version is that a sophisticated firm with ties to the world’s largest stablecoin issuer was running strategies on Circle’s platform that Circle considered manipulative, and nobody found out for nearly three years.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
A prediction market player turned a $10.8 million loss into an $8 million profit in just two weeks.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a prediction market trader has reversed a massive profit and loss swing in just two weeks. The account had previously accumulated a loss of approximately $10.8 million, but has turned a profit of over $8 million via recent trades. Its notable large wins include: France vs. Spain: $9.9 million in profit; Switzerland vs. Colombia: $3.765 million; Argentina vs. Switzerland: $1.867 million; United States vs. Belgium: $1.759 million.
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Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
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Japan’s largest domestic payment network, JCB, has entered a memorandum of understanding with Circle to explore the use of USDC for cross-border payments and merchant transactions. The initiative will begin with a joint proof of concept focusing on internal cross-border fund transfers using USDC, as well as testing stablecoin payments at Japanese merchants catering to international visitors.
Stablecoin pilot and interoperabilityThe two companies plan to assess the technology required to support stablecoin transactions on JCB’s networks, including interoperability across multiple blockchain ecosystems. In addition to serving JCB’s internal cross-border needs, the proof of concept will also evaluate the practicalities of enabling stablecoin-based payments at brick-and-mortar merchants in Japan.
JCB and Circle emphasized a goal of developing new applications for stablecoin infrastructure in cross-border payments and merchant services, though specifics regarding commercial rollout remain unannounced.
JCB, established in 1961, is a leading Japanese payment brand widely accepted across Asia, with a large domestic merchant network and a presence in over 190 countries and territories.
Circle, which issues USDC, is a global financial technology firm specializing in digital currency solutions for payments and treasury operations. The company’s stablecoin, USDC, ranks as the world’s second-largest stablecoin, with a circulating supply of approximately $73 billion, according to DefiLlama data. Tether’s USDT leads the market with a circulating supply of about $184 billion.
StablecoinCirculating supplyIssuerUSDT$184 billionTetherUSDC$73 billionCircleExpanding stablecoin payments in JapanThe Circle partnership follows a separate JCB initiative with Digital Garage and Resona Holdings, launched in January, to trial stablecoin payments at physical stores in Japan. That effort is aimed at identifying both technical and operational challenges as stablecoin technology enters daily commerce.
Additionally, Japan’s stablecoin payment pilots have gathered momentum in 2024. In June, Circle and Nomura, the country’s largest investment bank, were reported to be working on a stablecoin-based foreign exchange settlement service. This service would enable Japanese companies to convert yen into USDC for cross-border transactions with near-instant settlement.
Japanese retail and payments firms are also moving forward. On Monday, Lawson announced plans to pilot yen-based stablecoin payments at a Tokyo store starting in August. Meanwhile, payments firm Netstars launched a merchant payment service supporting USDC, USDT, and JPYC, distributed across the Solana and Polygon blockchains.
Mini dictionary: Netstars – A Japanese payments company offering payment gateway and merchant payment solutions, enabling transaction support for both traditional and digital currencies.
Japan’s regulatory and digital asset landscapeJapan has played a pioneering role in stablecoin regulation. The country created a legal framework allowing banks, trust companies, and licensed money transfer providers to issue fiat-backed tokens. Amendments to the Payment Services Act, which took effect in 2023, underpin this framework.
The country continues to advance broader digital asset reforms. In June, Japan’s Lower House passed legislation that classifies crypto assets as financial instruments. This reclassification opens the potential for crypto exchange-traded funds and could bring Japan’s crypto sector in line with stricter market regulations facing traditional financial instruments.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Japan has a reputation for being simultaneously one of the world’s most technologically sophisticated countries and one of the slowest to change how its citizens actually pay for things. JCB, the country’s dominant domestic credit card network, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Circle to explore using USDC across both cross-border treasury operations and merchant payments inside Japan.
This is not a crypto-native startup experimenting at the margins. JCB is the card network that sits behind millions of Japanese consumers and a vast retail merchant base.
What the deal actually covers The MOU lays out two distinct use cases. The first is internal treasury operations. JCB will begin by running a proof-of-concept focused on using USDC for cross-border fund transfers within its own organization. The second use case is more consumer-facing. The two companies plan to test in-store USDC payments at retail locations, targeting both local Japanese shoppers and international visitors.
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Circle’s broader stablecoin stack is also on the table. Beyond USDC, the companies will evaluate EURC, Circle’s euro-denominated stablecoin, for potential payment applications in Japan.
Why Japan, and why now USDC became the first global dollar stablecoin to receive regulatory approval for use in Japan from the Financial Services Agency. Japan updated its regulatory framework for stablecoins in 2023, creating a legal pathway for foreign issuers to offer their products in the Japanese market under defined compliance requirements.
Circle moved quickly to meet those requirements, and the FSA’s green light for USDC gave the company a meaningful first-mover advantage among dollar stablecoin issuers in Japan.
The merchant network angle is also significant. JCB’s acceptance footprint across Japan gives Circle a distribution channel that would otherwise take years to build independently. Circle brings the stablecoin infrastructure, JCB brings the merchants and the cardholders.
What this means for stablecoin adoption and investors For Circle, this deal matters beyond the Japan market in isolation. Circle has been building toward an IPO, and every major institutional partnership strengthens the case that USDC is infrastructure-grade. A proof-of-concept with one of Japan’s most established financial brands is exactly the kind of reference customer that institutional investors and public market analysts care about when evaluating a stablecoin issuer’s long-term revenue model.
USDC generates yield for Circle primarily through the US Treasury holdings that back the stablecoin’s reserves. More USDC in circulation means more reserves, means more yield. Every new market where USDC gains regulatory approval and institutional distribution is another lever on that core business model.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest bank in the world by market capitalization, has sounded the alarm about Coinbase and Circle’s USDC-based revenue in their partnership with Hyperliquid.
USDC alliance expected to slash Coinbase and Circle earningsAccording to the bank’s July 2026 report, the partnership among the three crypto players creates a prisoner’s dilemma. Essentially, Coinbase and Circle are competing for the distribution of the stablecoin to increase their revenue.
“We think the change in the Hyperliquid relationship showcases the challenge for Circle and Coinbase partnership agreements because it can create ‘a prisoner’s dilemma’ that drives Coinbase and Circle to compete with each other when promoting USDC distribution,” analysts led by Kenneth Worthington said in the Tuesday report.
Hyperliquid is currently the largest decentralized exchange, boasting over $150 billion in processed transactions this July. In the same month, the Hyperliquid-Binance volume ratio officially surpassed the 11.89% milestone, following a 47% month-over-month surge in Hyperliquid’s trading volume. At present, Hyperliquid holds about $6 billion in USDC, or about 8% of the stablecoin’s circulating supply.
Two months ago, the trio entered into an agreement in which Coinbase became the official USDC liquidity manager on Hyperliquid. Meanwhile, Circle managed cross-chain infrastructure and minting to reduce third-party risk.
In return, Coinbase would route 90% of the stablecoin yield back to Hyperliquid. The exchange then uses these funds to conduct regular HYPE token buybacks, thereby boosting the token’s value. This arrangement overturned a previous contract in which Coinbase split nearly all of the stablecoin’s revenue evenly with Circle.
More reasons for lower returnsWeaker crypto markets have also cut stablecoin yields, with USDC supply now down to $73 billion from around $80 billion in March. Even more, the crypto industry is continuously incorporating regulated stablecoins, chipping away at Circle’s USDC’s previous dominance.
Japanese investment bank Mizuho notes that while Circle’s approval to open a bank is positive, investors may be overvaluing it.
Whether JPMorgan’s warnings hold any weight remains to be seen once Coinbase and Circle release their Q2 earnings reports on July 30 and August 11, respectively.
Story Ends Here
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JPMorgan flags a structural shift in USDC economicsJPMorgan has lowered its earnings forecasts for @circle and @coinbase, warning that a new revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid is weakening the economics behind $USDC. Circle and Coinbase announced the partnership with Hyperliquid in May to expand $USDC adoption. Hyperliquid operates as both a Layer-1 blockchain and a decentralized exchange for spot and derivatives trading, and as of June 11, $USDC became the preferred stablecoin on the platform.
Under the new structure, @coinbase classifies any $USDC on Hyperliquid as "on-platform," earning all associated reserve income but paying 90% of the float back to Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid holds roughly $6 billion in $USDC, representing about 8% of the stablecoin's circulating supply, according to JPMorgan estimates. JPMorgan estimated @coinbase previously split nearly all of that revenue evenly with @circle.
@jpmorgan said the arrangement creates a "prisoner's dilemma" that encourages @circle and @coinbase to compete for $USDC distribution at the expense of their own revenue. Even if $USDC becomes more widely used, the profit margins for @coinbase and @circle could still shrink.
Market impact and broader pressure on the stablecoin pairJPMorgan cut its price target for @coinbase from $283 to $196 after saying the new partnership involving $USDC could reduce revenue in the near term. The bank said the full impact of the Hyperliquid relationship will not appear in second-quarter results but will be incorporated in the second half of 2026.
Previous estimates from Compass Point suggested the agreement could redirect between $135 million and $160 million in annual reserve income toward Hyperliquid, with the combined annual earnings of @circle and @coinbase potentially falling by between $60 million and $80 million.
$USDC's circulating supply has fallen to about $73 billion from nearly $80 billion in March, part of a broader $10 billion contraction in the stablecoin market since May as crypto trading activity cooled and new regulated rivals chipped away at the dominance of $USDC and Tether's USDT. Hyperliquid, meanwhile, processed more than $150 billion in trading volume during July, with its volume relative to Binance reaching 11.5%, making it an increasingly important distribution channel for $USDC, according to @jpmorgan.
The broader takeaway is a structural one: as platforms like Hyperliquid grow, the economics of stablecoin distribution are being renegotiated. Growing competition is forcing stablecoin companies to share more reserve income with exchanges and payment platforms. The platforms holding the coins are increasingly the ones capturing the yield.
Sources:
CoinDesk: JPMorgan sees Hyperliquid partnership weighing on Circle, Coinbase
Yahoo Finance: JPMorgan cuts estimates for Circle and Coinbase on Hyperliquid pressure
CryptoNews: JPMorgan warns Hyperliquid's growth threatens Circle's USDC economics
What Did JPMorgan Actually Say?Analysts led by Kenneth Worthington said the Hyperliquid deal created a structural problem for the Circle-Coinbase partnership.
Under the new arrangement, Coinbase classifies USDC held on Hyperliquid as “on-platform,” collects the reserve income, and pays 90% of it directly to Hyperliquid.
Previously, Coinbase split nearly all of that revenue evenly with Circle.
“We think the change in the Hyperliquid relationship showcases the challenge for Circle and Coinbase partnership agreements because it can create a prisoner’s dilemma that drives Coinbase and Circle to compete with each other when promoting USDC distribution,” Worthington wrote.
The problem is structural. Every time Coinbase chases a major distribution partner by offering better revenue terms, it cuts into Circle’s share.
Every time Circle tries to protect its economics, it risks losing distribution. Both sides are now incentivized to undercut each other to secure the next Hyperliquid-scale deal.
Why Does Hyperliquid Make This A Bigger Deal Than It Looks?Hyperliquid has grown into one of crypto’s largest trading venues, processing more than $150 billion in trading volume in July alone.
Its volume relative to Binance climbed to 11.5%, and USDC balances on the platform have swelled to roughly $6 billion, representing about 8% of the entire circulating USDC supply.
That scale makes Hyperliquid an increasingly important distribution channel, which is exactly why Coinbase was willing to offer 90% of reserve yields to secure it.
The more platforms of this size emerge, the more pressure Circle and Coinbase face to keep offering similar terms elsewhere.
How Much Has USDC Already Lost?USDC’s circulating supply has fallen from nearly $80 billion in March to around $73 billion, part of a broader $10 billion contraction in the stablecoin market since May.
Crypto trading activity cooled while new regulated rivals chipped away at both USDC and Tether’s USDT dominance.
JPMorgan cut earnings estimates for both Circle and Coinbase citing the Hyperliquid agreement alongside weaker crypto markets, though the bank noted higher interest rates provide some support for USDC-related revenue over the longer term.
Mizuho said last week that Circle’s approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish First National Digital Currency Bank is a positive milestone, but warned investors may be overestimating how much it moves the needle on USDC growth given the competitive pressures now in place.
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JPMorgan has reduced its earnings forecast for both Circle and Coinbase after it signed a new revenue-sharing deal with Hyperliquid that affected the distribution of income generated by USDC’s reserves. The agreement might affect the overall economics of the stablecoin business for both the companies in the long run, the bank added.
Wall Street is taking a closer look at the revenue-sharing arrangement between stablecoin issuers and distribution platforms. While some analysts remain optimistic about Circle’s long-term position, others believe competition for USDC adoption could reduce profit margins.
JPMorgan Raises Concerns Over Hyperliquid Agreement JPMorgan cited a new deal between Coinbase, Circle, and Hyperliquid that will change the way the reserve currency from USDC on Coinbase is split.
As part of the deal, Coinbase will categorize USDC on Hyperliquid as “on-platform” balances. Coinbase will get those reserves but will give 90% of income back to Hyperliquid rather than divide it among themselves and Circle.
JPMorgan estimates that Hyperliquid has approximately $6 billion in USDC, which is approximately 8% of the total circulating supply.
The bank said that the situation is a “prisoner’s dilemma” because both Coinbase and Circle are looking to drive more volume on USDC while giving up a larger share of the revenue generated by the reserves backing the stablecoin.
Partnership Aims To Expand USDC Adoption On May 14, Circle and Coinbase announced their partnership with Hyperliquid as part of their broader strategy to increase the adoption of USDC.
Hyperliquid has its own Layer-1 blockchain as well as a decentralized exchange that supports spot and perpetual futures. USDC has now emerged as the preferred stablecoin of the platform since June 11.
JPMorgan, however, has a different view about the financial terms that facilitated the deal and thinks that it will impact the future revenue of both Circle and Coinbase.
Wall Street Remains Divided on Circle Not all analysts are being all that bearish on JPMorgan. Mizuho has also become more cautious on Circle, downgrading the stock as concerns grow over the economics of USDC.
Meanwhile, companies such as Bernstein and William Blair have retained their bullish outlook on the company.
JPMorgan also said it still expects USDC-related earnings to grow through 2027, supported by expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer. The bank now expects a 25 basis point increase in interest rates at the Federal Reserve’s October 2026 meeting.
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JPMorgan has lowered its earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase after a new USDC revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid changed how income from the stablecoin’s reserves will be divided.
Summary
JPMorgan cut earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase after the Hyperliquid USDC deal. The bank warned new revenue-sharing terms could pressure stablecoin profit margins. Analysts remain divided as higher interest rates may still support USDC earnings growth. According to a JPMorgan research note, the revised agreement could reduce the long-term profitability of the USDC business for both companies, even as they continue pursuing higher adoption of the dollar-backed stablecoin.
JPMorgan Cuts Circle and Coinbase Forecasts Over Hyperliquid Deal
JPMorgan downgraded earnings estimates for Circle and Coinbase, stating their new agreement with Hyperliquid weakens USDC economics. Coinbase will now pay 90% of USDC reserve yields on the platform to Hyperliquid,… pic.twitter.com/tnRhp5uG7M
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 14, 2026 The bank argued that competition among distribution partners may force issuers to give away a larger share of reserve income to secure market share.
New revenue-sharing terms reduce reserve income Under the arrangement highlighted by JPMorgan, Coinbase will classify USDC held on Hyperliquid as “on-platform” balances. As a result, Coinbase will receive the reserve income generated by those deposits but will return 90% of that revenue to Hyperliquid instead of splitting the proceeds with Circle under the companies’ existing economic arrangement.
JPMorgan estimated that Hyperliquid currently holds about $6 billion worth of USDC, representing roughly 8% of the stablecoin’s circulating supply. Because of the platform’s growing role in the USDC ecosystem, the bank believes the revised economics could have a noticeable effect on future earnings for both Circle and Coinbase.
Describing the competitive dynamic, JPMorgan said both companies face pressure to increase USDC usage even if doing so requires surrendering a larger portion of reserve revenue to distribution partners. The bank characterized the situation as one in which efforts to expand adoption could come at the cost of lower profitability.
The revenue-sharing concerns follow an announcement made on May 14, when Circle and Coinbase revealed a partnership with Hyperliquid to deepen USDC integration across the crypto trading platform. Hyperliquid operates both a Layer-1 blockchain and a decentralized exchange offering spot and perpetual futures markets.
Since June 11, USDC has become Hyperliquid’s preferred stablecoin, strengthening the platform’s importance within Circle’s distribution network. JPMorgan said the commercial terms supporting that expansion, rather than the growth in usage itself, have become the main issue for investors evaluating future earnings.
Wall Street remains divided on Circle’s outlook Elsewhere on Wall Street, analysts have reached different conclusions about Circle’s long-term prospects. Mizuho has also taken a more cautious stance on the company, downgrading the stock as concerns grow over whether expanding USDC adoption will continue to generate attractive economics.
By contrast, Bernstein and William Blair have maintained positive ratings on Circle, indicating they still expect the stablecoin issuer to benefit from continued growth in digital dollar usage despite increasing competition for distribution partnerships.
Even after cutting its earnings estimates, JPMorgan said it continues to forecast growth in USDC-related earnings through 2027. The bank attributed that expectation to its interest-rate outlook, which now includes a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the October 2026 meeting.
Higher rates generally increase the income earned on the cash and Treasury reserves backing USDC, providing an offset to the revenue-sharing concessions outlined in the Hyperliquid agreement.
For investors, the latest debate has shifted attention away from USDC’s circulating supply alone and toward how reserve income is divided among issuers, exchanges, and distribution partners. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that while adoption can continue rising, the financial value retained by Circle and Coinbase may come under increasing pressure as more platforms negotiate similar commercial terms.
The rapid ascent of decentralized perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid is forcing a reassessment of stablecoin economics, and the latest voice to flag the risk comes from JPMorgan. In a research note covered by the original report, the bank’s analysts argue that Hyperliquid’s deepening integration with Circle and Coinbase creates a prisoner’s dilemma that could erode the profit margins Circle derives from its USDC stablecoin.
The core tension is structural. Hyperliquid now processes billions of dollars in daily notional volume, largely settled in USDC. The exchange’s deal with Circle and Coinbase gave it preferential access to stablecoin liquidity and fiat ramps, but those terms also reshape how revenue from USDC reserves gets shared across the ecosystem. As the venue grows, it captures a larger slice of the stablecoin velocity that issuers typically monetize through interest on Treasury-held reserves.
How Stablecoin Revenue Flows Really Work Most of the crypto market understands that stablecoin issuers like Circle earn from the yield on their reserve assets. Less discussed is how that yield gets distributed behind the scenes. Exchanges, institutional partners, and large on-chain venues that drive USDC demand often receive a share of the interest income—effectively a rebate for custodying, wrapping, or facilitating high-volume usage. This revenue-sharing model is what keeps USDC liquid across centralized and decentralized platforms.
When Hyperliquid locked in its arrangement with Circle and Coinbase, it likely secured economics that reflect its outsized contribution to USDC turnover. The platform routinely handles north of $5 billion in daily perps activity, with USDC functioning as the dominant margin and settlement asset. That volume gives it leverage. But if one venue gets a lopsided deal, other exchanges—both CeFi and DeFi—will inevitably demand similar treatment. JPMorgan’s note frames this as a classic prisoner’s dilemma: every participant has an incentive to extract the best possible terms, but if all of them succeed, Circle’s unit economics deteriorate sharply.
Why Hyperliquid’s Deal Creates a Structural Tension The deal’s effect isn’t just about Hyperliquid. It sets a precedent. Other L1 and L2 perp protocols, order-book DEXs, and even large centralized exchanges that hold significant USDC balances will now point to Hyperliquid’s terms when renegotiating their own revenue-sharing agreements. Circle could face a wave of margin compression that accelerates as on-chain derivatives markets keep eating into traditional exchange volume.
For Coinbase, the calculus is different. The exchange holds an equity stake in Circle and benefits from USDC’s growth in market cap. But it also operates a competing derivatives venue. By co-signing the deal, Coinbase may be accepting a trade-off: sacrifice some interest income on the stablecoin side to ensure Hyperliquid’s flow stays within the Circle orbit rather than migrating to USDT or a new entrant. That’s a defensive move, but it doesn’t make Circle’s earnings picture any brighter. Recent institutional activity, including tokenized Treasury settlements involving JPMorgan itself, shows how competition for yield-bearing stablecoin alternatives is intensifying.
The Long-Term View for USDC and DeFi Circle’s profitability was already under scrutiny. After the Federal Reserve began cutting rates, the interest income from its reserve portfolio shrank, and competition from Tether’s USDT continued to chip away at market share. If the Hyperliquid arrangement leads to a broader re-rating of revenue splits, USDC becomes a thinner-margin business just as it faces regulatory demands that may require higher compliance costs. Stablecoin legislation in the U.S. could add further strain by forcing issuers to hold capital buffers or restrict reserve asset composition.
What remains unclear is whether Circle can restructure its partnerships without losing volume. Hyperliquid’s users are not particularly loyal to one stablecoin; they follow liquidity and low fees. If Circle tried to claw back margins, the perp platform could easily add native support for USDT or a decentralized alternative. That switching risk limits Circle’s negotiating power and suggests the current pressure might be permanent rather than cyclical.
The market hasn’t yet priced in the second-order effects. USDC’s market cap fluctuates with broader crypto sentiment, but the underlying economics of how it generates value are quietly shifting. As DeFi increasingly revolves around high-throughput derivatives venues, stablecoin issuers may be forced to accept a utility-style return rather than the banking-style margins they once enjoyed. Hyperliquid’s rise isn’t just a competitive threat to centralized exchanges—it’s also reshaping the plumbing that funds stablecoin revenue.
Whether this dynamic accelerates depends on how other major venues react. If Binance or Bybit extract similar terms, Circle’s interest income could decline meaningfully even if USDC supply stays flat. That’s the kind of structural squeeze that analysts at JPMorgan are watching, and it places Hyperliquid at the center of a conversation that extends far beyond perps volume numbers.
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Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
Tether has announced a $7 million Series A investment in Pact Labs, a fintech infrastructure provider, as part of a strategic move to advance its USA₮ stablecoin in the US market. Blockchange Ventures and Lasagna also participated in the funding round. The investment aims to make USA₮, a dollar-backed stablecoin dedicated to the United States, more widely available for use in payroll, earned wage access, lending, and daily payment transactions.
Tether’s expansion into US payroll systemsTether seeks to move beyond its traditional role in crypto trading by integrating its stablecoin with mainstream financial services. The company intends to bridge the gap between digital currencies and everyday monetary operations in the US labor market.
The American payroll sector handles more than $11 trillion annually, yet most payment systems operate on outdated batch processing technology. This often requires employees to wait several days before receiving wages they have already earned. Through the partnership, Tether and Pact Labs aim to streamline payroll processing and enable real-time payments using the USA₮ stablecoin.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the demand for dollar-denominated settlement is deeply connected to wage distribution challenges. Ardoino also noted that workers in emerging markets have relied on stablecoins to address payroll delays, and expressed optimism about replicating these solutions in the US.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino explained that years of transaction data reveal a growing demand for dollar-backed settlements linked to wages and payroll. He underscored the company’s ambition to bring the benefits of stablecoins to the US workforce.
Pact Labs: infrastructure for blockchain-enabled paymentsPact Labs provides technical infrastructure allowing fintech companies to utilize blockchain-based payment networks without requiring their customers to engage directly with cryptocurrencies. The company indicated it has handled over $2 billion in on-chain loan volume and has originated more than $1 billion in loans and related services to upwards of 500,000 users through seven different fintech partners.
The platform is compatible with blockchain networks such as Aptos and Celo, facilitating digital wallets, instantaneous payments, and blockchain-powered lending operations for financial products.
Mini dictionary: Pact Labs is a US-based fintech infrastructure startup that provides technology for institutions seeking to connect traditional finance with blockchain networks, supporting payment, lending, and other services while abstracting away direct crypto exposure from the end customer.
Tether made a $100 million investment earlier this year in Anchorage Digital Bank, which distributes USA₮ through its platform. The ongoing partnership with Pact Labs further supports Tether’s initiative to secure a stronger foothold in the United States market.
Competitive landscape in the stablecoin sectorCompetition in the US stablecoin market is intensifying. Circle is pushing USDC into institutional settings and PayPal is expanding its PYUSD digital dollar offering. Against this backdrop, Tether is focusing on payroll and everyday business payments to carve out a unique position for USA₮ in the regulated US stablecoin ecosystem.
CompanyProductMain US StrategyTetherUSA₮Payroll and business paymentsCircleUSDCInstitutional expansionPayPalPYUSDConsumer transactionsThe effectiveness of Tether’s approach will depend on the adoption rate of USA₮ by Pact Labs’ existing fintech partners and integration into real-world payments infrastructure. If successful, this move could offer Tether a significant competitive edge as regulations around stablecoins become increasingly important in the US.
This investment positions Tether to compete more directly with rivals like Circle and PayPal, highlighting the evolving role of stablecoins in core financial services beyond the crypto sector.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Japan’s largest card network JCB has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Circle, with the two parties set to explore using USDC for cross-border payments, merchant settlement, fund management and other services, to drive the adoption of stablecoins in Japan’s daily payment scenarios. JCB has around 140 million users and 40 million merchants globally. The two sides will initially conduct a proof of concept (PoC) centered on JCB’s internal fund transfers, and further research how USDC can boost cross-border payment efficiency, lower remittance costs, and support international tourists in making stablecoin payments at Japanese merchants. This partnership is part of Japan’s stablecoin commercialization process. Earlier, Circle announced it would collaborate with Nomura to develop a USDC-based foreign exchange settlement service; Japanese convenience store chain Lawson also plans to launch a stablecoin payment pilot in August this year.
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Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Circle and Argentine financial group BIND have struck a deal to open institutional access to USDC through BIND’s digital assets platform, giving corporations and financial intermediaries a regulated on-ramp to dollar-denominated stablecoins in a country where the peso has essentially disintegrated.
The partnership, announced on July 14 during Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire’s visit to Buenos Aires, will channel USDC access through BEN, BIND’s digital assets platform, on a peer-to-peer basis. BIND operates as a registered virtual asset service provider (known locally as a PSAV), which means it’s a licensed financial institution building rails for companies that need dollar exposure but face a currency that has lost 99.8% of its value against the USD since 2009.
What the deal actually looks like BEN will serve as the infrastructure layer connecting eligible Argentine institutions to USDC, covering payments, treasury operations, and broader digital asset transactions, all wrapped in a compliance framework that BIND is keen to emphasize.
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“Through BEN, we seek to provide companies with transparent, secure, and efficient access to digital dollar infrastructure within a framework designed to support regulatory compliance and operational integrity,” said Andrés Meta, a Grupo BIND shareholder.
Circle isn’t treating this as a one-off announcement. The company is hiring a senior director based in Buenos Aires and actively pursuing additional partnerships with local banks and fintech companies. This follows Circle’s existing footprint in Brazil, where it already has a team of eight people, and planned expansions into Mexico and Colombia.
Why Argentina is ground zero for stablecoins The peso recently hit yet another record low against the dollar, extending a collapse that has made the currency almost worthless in relative terms over the past decade and a half. Persistent inflation, capital controls, and a general distrust in the local monetary system have turned Argentina into one of the most active stablecoin markets on the planet.
What’s changing now is the institutional dimension. Retail adoption was already widespread. This partnership is about bringing corporations, financial intermediaries, and treasury departments into the fold through regulated channels. When individuals buy USDC on an exchange, it’s useful but fragmented. When institutions get compliant access through a licensed financial entity like BIND, it opens the door to much larger capital flows, corporate treasury management in digital dollars, and cross-border payment infrastructure that actually scales.
Circle has also been engaging with Argentine regulatory bodies, including the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy, to ensure the integration of digital assets within the traditional financial system doesn’t run afoul of existing rules. Allaire has expressed optimism about regulatory advancements regarding how banks treat stablecoins in Argentina, suggesting the groundwork is being laid for a more formalized framework.
What this means for the broader market Circle’s simultaneous push into Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia suggests the company sees the entire region as a strategic priority for USDC distribution. Tether’s USDT has historically dominated stablecoin usage in Latin America, particularly in peer-to-peer and informal markets. Circle’s strategy of partnering with regulated financial institutions like BIND targets the institutional and corporate segment where compliance requirements make USDC’s regulatory positioning a genuine advantage over less transparent alternatives.
The risk, as always in Argentina, is regulatory whiplash. The country has a long history of economic policy U-turns, capital control changes, and political volatility that can reshape the operating environment overnight. Circle’s engagement with the Central Bank and Ministry of Economy suggests awareness of this risk, but awareness and immunity are very different things.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Binance continues holding deep stablecoin liquidity, yet its reserve mix has shifted noticeably in recent months. USD Coin [USDC] reserves dropped 40.3% from $7.7 billion to $4.6 billion as of writing, reversing most gains recorded during early 2026.
Meanwhile, Tether [USDT] reserves remained steady at $38.5 billion, widening the gap between both assets to nearly $33.9 billion. Such a divergence suggests that users prefer USDT over USDC for exchange balances, rather than signaling broad liquidity contraction.
Source: CryptoQuant More importantly, Binance still controls roughly $53 billion, or 57% of the $93 billion held across exchange stablecoin reserves. Since early 2025, the dominant exchange stablecoin reserves have surged by 61%, adding $35 billion as Binance strengthened its market share.
Source: X That preference strengthens Binance’s overall stablecoin base while concentrating liquidity in one dominant asset. If this trend persists, USDT could further reinforce its role as Binance’s primary settlement and trading stablecoin, while USDC risks losing relative market influence.
Stablecoin supply shifts beyond whale wallets Still, that shift toward USDT has altered the way that stablecoin liquidity is distributed throughout the entire market. Over the last three months, the top 100 USDT wallets have reduced their portion of the total USDT supply by 0.6%.
Additionally, the largest USDC wallets reduce their portion of total USDC supply by 4.7%. Rather than concentrating liquidity among a handful of large holders, stablecoin reserves are spreading across exchanges, institutions, protocols, and retail participants.
Source: Santiment This suggests capital is becoming more broadly available instead of remaining idle in whale wallets. As institutional adoption continues expanding, wider distribution could improve market resilience by reducing reliance on a few dominant holders.
Such a strong liquidity foundation could support healthier, more sustainable crypto market advances.
Can stablecoin liquidity drive the next rally? The attention is now shifting from stablecoin liquidity to stablecoin participation. Rather than remaining just held by a few whale accounts, liquidity is increasingly spreading across a wider range of users.
This creates a better base of liquidity. However, just having broader ownership does not necessarily mean there will be a sustained bull run. Instead, active addresses, new wallet creation, and daily transactions must continue expanding to convert available capital into persistent demand.
Meanwhile, stablecoin supply remains near $312 billion, although risk asset accumulation has yet to fully accelerate. ETF flows and exchange balances also present mixed signals, suggesting much of that liquidity remains sidelined.
Therefore, the next advance in this market depends on investors’ willingness to utilize the available capital rather than how much capital is available.
Final Summary Tether [USDT] continues strengthening its dominance as stablecoin liquidity becomes more broadly distributed. USD Coin [USDC] and USDT now need stronger participation to drive the next market rally.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, the U.S. government has once again transferred seized cryptocurrency assets. A government wallet previously linked to Alameda Research/FTX has been emptied, with its assets dispersed to eight new addresses. The transferred holdings include: 4,110 AXS (worth approximately $4,100), 5.37 YFI (about $11,400), 1,230 COMP (around $21,100), 311,600 MANA (roughly $21,800), 0.533 WBTC (approximately $34,400), 4,050 NMR (about $39,900), 138,950 RLC (around $40,700), and 209.18 ETH (valued at roughly $391,000). On-chain data confirms the original wallet’s balance is now zero. The prior day, the U.S. government also moved approximately $12.34 million in assets seized from the Bitfinex hack, including 2.9671 million USDT sent to Coinbase Prime, 901,000 USDC transferred to a new wallet, and roughly 5,940 ETH (worth about $11.14 million) sent to Coinbase Prime. It remains unclear if these asset transfers are tied to a sale plan. The on-chain analytics firm will continue tracking future movements of crypto assets seized by the U.S. government.
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Spain beat France 2-0 in the semi-final of the 2026 US-Canada-Mexico World Cup, becoming the first team to advance to the final. According to the latest championship prediction data from Predict.fun, as of press time, Spain’s probability of winning the title has risen to 58%, while England stands at 22% and Argentina at 20%. France was previously the top favorite in the prediction market, but their semi-final loss led to early elimination, reducing their championship probability to zero. With the final spot confirmed, Predict.fun has adjusted Spain to the new favorite to lift the trophy, and attention now shifts to the other semi-final between Argentina and England.
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U.S. CPI cools, boosting risk assets; South Korea's KOSPI rises over 7%, triggering a circuit breaker.
U.S. June CPI came in lower than expected, significantly cooling market expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike, driving gains in global risk assets. South Korea’s KOSPI index surged rapidly after opening on Wednesday, rising by more than 7% at one point during the session, triggering a temporary trading halt (circuit breaker) on the Korea Exchange; the KOSDAQ market also triggered a synchronized pause in program trading. Chip stocks led the market rally. SK Hynix’s ADRs jumped 27% overnight in U.S. trading, driving its South Korean shares up roughly 10% on Wednesday. Market analysts note that since SK Hynix’s ADR listing, price correlation between the U.S. and South Korean stock markets has further strengthened, potentially enabling cross-timezone transmission of market volatility. However, multiple institutions still warn that while the inflation data eased market concerns about a July interest rate hike, escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and inflationary pressures stemming from AI investment may still limit the Federal Reserve’s future policy space.
On July 14, 2026, $500 million in USDC was minted on the Solana blockchain, indicating a strategic move to enhance liquidity within the network. This issuance was executed in two tranches of $250 million each, underscoring growing confidence in Solana’s capacity to handle large-scale transactions. The additional USDC enhances Solana’s standing as a significant player in the stablecoin market, holding between $7.2 billion and $8.6 billion in circulating USDC. This development aligns with a broader trend of increased institutional interest in Solana as a high-throughput settlement layer, with the network experiencing a record weekly USDC minting volume earlier this year.
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Key Takeaways The issuance of $500 million USDC on Solana suggests increased liquidity and institutional confidence in the network. Solana’s share of the global USDC supply reflects its growing role as a key blockchain for stablecoins. Market pricing appears supportive of Solana’s potential to reach higher price benchmarks by the end of July. What to Watch Market participants will closely monitor Solana’s price movements in response to this liquidity boost, particularly in relation to its potential to hit the $90 mark in July. Key indicators such as the network’s volume and additional stablecoin issuances may provide further insights into Solana’s capacity to leverage this increased liquidity. Potential developments, including regulatory actions or changes in institutional demand, could also affect market sentiment and price trajectories.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h August 1 2026 19% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.7% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 1.6% — — View market → August 1 2026 1% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.7% — — View market → August 1 2026 4.2% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.9% — — View market → August 1 2026 9% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 1.7% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 38% — — View market →
14 July 2026 | 20:08 JPMorgan has lowered its earnings estimates for Circle and Coinbase, arguing that their revised USDC arrangement with Hyperliquid exposes a structural weakness in the stablecoin’s distribution model.
Key Takeaways JPMorgan said the Hyperliquid agreement creates a “prisoner’s dilemma” in which Circle and Coinbase may sacrifice margins to protect USDC distribution. Hyperliquid holds approximately $5.5 billion to $6 billion in stablecoins, with USDC accounting for nearly 94% of the on-chain supply. The frequently cited $160 million figure came from an earlier Compass Point estimate and represents potential reserve yield redirected to Hyperliquid, not a confirmed net loss. Robinhood Chain has already overtaken Hyperliquid in seven-day spot DEX volume despite launching on July 1, showing how quickly competing platforms can establish their own preferred stablecoin rails. Hyperliquid Gains the Yield Without Issuing USDC Under the revised structure, Coinbase becomes the official USDC treasury deployer on Hyperliquid. Circle remains responsible for the technical infrastructure needed to mint, redeem and move USDC across supported networks.
The arrangement preserves USDC as Hyperliquid’s primary collateral and quote asset across its spot, perpetual and other on-chain markets. It also gives the protocol access to most of the income generated by the underlying reserves.
Hyperliquid’s Aligned Quote Asset framework states that deployers share approximately 90% of cost-adjusted reserve yield generated by their supply with the protocol. Aligned assets receive trading advantages including lower taker fees, improved maker rebates and greater volume contribution toward fee tiers.
The payment is not interest distributed directly to USDC holders. It is protocol-level revenue derived from the cash and short-term government securities backing the stablecoin. Hyperliquid captures much of that income in exchange for making USDC the preferred dollar asset across its markets.
That distinction explains why the agreement can strengthen USDC’s utility while weakening its economics for Circle. The stablecoin gains volume, collateral demand and distribution, but its issuer retains a smaller portion of the reserve income attached to those balances.
Why JPMorgan Sees a Prisoner’s Dilemma JPMorgan described the arrangement as a “prisoner’s dilemma” because Circle and Coinbase both benefit from wider USDC adoption but can compete over which company gives more of the economics to major distributors.
If neither company offers favorable terms, a large platform could support another stablecoin or create its own. If one side accepts a lower margin to secure the platform, the other risks losing distribution unless it participates in the concession.
JPMorgan estimates that Hyperliquid holds around $6 billion in USDC, equal to roughly 8% of the token’s circulating supply. At the time of writing, DefiLlama showed approximately $5.5 billion in stablecoins on Hyperliquid L1, with USDC representing 93.87% of the total.
Coinbase previously treated much of the USDC held outside its platform differently from balances held directly on Coinbase. JPMorgan said that classifying Hyperliquid’s USDC as on-platform allows Coinbase to collect the associated reserve income before transferring 90% of the adjusted amount to Hyperliquid.
The structure may still benefit Coinbase strategically. Acting as treasury deployer strengthens its role in minting, redemption, liquidity management and fiat access around one of the largest pools of on-chain dollars. The trade-off is that securing that position requires Coinbase and Circle to give up most of the reserve yield generated there.
The $160 Million Estimate Needs Qualification The estimate that as much as $160 million in annual revenue could move toward Hyperliquid did not originate in JPMorgan’s July report. Compass Point produced the estimate in May, when Hyperliquid held approximately $5 billion to $5.5 billion in USDC.
The figure represented an estimate of reserve income that could be redirected under the yield-sharing arrangement. It should not be treated as a confirmed reduction of the same size in Circle and Coinbase earnings.
The eventual impact depends on several variables: The average amount of USDC held on Hyperliquid Short-term interest rates and the return on USDC reserves The costs deducted before the 90% share is calculated How the income would otherwise have been divided between Circle and Coinbase Additional revenue Coinbase earns from treasury deployment and related services The concern is still material because reserve income dominates Circle’s financial model. In its first-quarter filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Circle reported $652.5 million in reserve income and $405.4 million in distribution and transaction costs.
The Hyperliquid terms add to costs that already consume a substantial portion of the income generated by USDC reserves. JPMorgan consequently sees the agreement as a larger long-term issue for Circle than for Coinbase, which has a broader mix of trading, custody, subscription and infrastructure revenue.
Robinhood Shows How Quickly Distribution Can Shift Hyperliquid is not the only platform gaining leverage over stablecoin providers. Robinhood launched the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain on July 1, only 13 days before the latest DefiLlama comparison.
By July 14, Robinhood Chain had accumulated approximately $161.7 million in DeFi TVL, $327.6 million in stablecoins and $3.9 billion in seven-day spot DEX volume. Hyperliquid L1 recorded approximately $1.31 billion in spot volume over the same period.
Robinhood Chain launched and the numbers are astounding.
We dug into the metrics in this week’s edition of the DefiLlama newsletter.https://t.co/1Hs2HHmxTR pic.twitter.com/FLyJ5XNYgK
— DefiLlama.com (@DefiLlama) July 14, 2026
Robinhood therefore generated nearly three times Hyperliquid’s weekly spot DEX activity despite being less than two weeks old. The comparison is limited to spot trading. Hyperliquid remained substantially larger in its core perpetual-futures market, processing approximately $42.5 billion over seven days compared with $24.5 million on Robinhood Chain.
The quality of Robinhood’s early activity also remains unproven. Its seven-day spot volume was roughly 24 times its TVL, an unusually high turnover rate that may reflect launch activity, short-lived speculation or repeated trading through a relatively small pool of liquidity.
The stablecoin composition is more relevant to JPMorgan’s argument. USDG represented around 68% of Robinhood Chain’s stablecoin supply, while Robinhood Earn uses USDG rather than USDC for its on-chain lending product.
A new distribution platform can therefore build substantial liquidity without making USDC its default dollar asset. That increases the pressure on Circle and Coinbase to offer better economics when negotiating with exchanges, wallets, fintech applications and blockchain operators.
Longer-Term Threat JPMorgan’s argument becomes stronger if USDC distribution continues expanding while Circle’s retained income per dollar in circulation declines. The next Circle and Coinbase earnings reports should show whether distribution costs rise faster than the revenue created by additional USDC balances.
The margin-pressure thesis would gain support if USDC balances on Hyperliquid remain near or above $6 billion, making the yield-sharing concession a recurring cost rather than a temporary arrangement. Disclosures showing reserve income flowing into Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund or being used for HYPE purchases would make the agreement’s economic effect more visible. Continued growth of USDG on Robinhood Chain, or of other regulated stablecoins on competing platforms, would further increase the value of distribution access. For Circle, the clearest financial warning would be distribution expenses rising faster than reserve income, confirming that wider USDC adoption is being achieved at the cost of lower retained margins.
The agreement does not show that USDC is losing relevance. Hyperliquid’s dependence on the stablecoin confirms its importance as trading collateral and on-chain dollar liquidity. The risk is that USDC becomes more widely used while a growing share of the value it generates is captured by the platforms controlling access to users and trading volume.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
Author
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
Noxa's official X account appears to have been hacked; users are advised to stay vigilant against risks.
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, the official X account of Meme token launch platform Noxa has been reportedly hacked. Community users who interacted with links posted from the account have had their wallets emptied. Users are warned not to connect their wallets, sign any transactions, or engage with any links shared by this account.
Circle Internet Financial and Nomura Holdings have signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on digital finance applications in Japan, with a core focus on using USDC for cross-border and in-store payments. The MOU, signed on June 26, 2026, sets the stage for what could become one of the most significant integrations of stablecoin technology into a major economy’s traditional financial plumbing.
Japan’s foreign exchange market handled roughly $440 billion in daily trading volume in 2025.
What the partnership actually looks like Nomura will handle client onboarding, regulatory compliance, and integration with existing banking services. Circle brings its digital asset infrastructure, specifically USDC, which carried a market cap of $73.8 billion at the time of the announcement.
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The tangible product here is a USDC-based corporate payment service scheduled for deployment in Japan as early as 2027. The system would enable yen-to-USDC conversion designed to serve corporate supply chain operations, essentially giving import and export businesses a faster, cheaper rail for moving money across borders.
Traditional cross-border settlements in Japan, like most places, take two to three days. The partnership aims to compress that timeline to minutes using blockchain settlement.
Circle’s Japan playbook has been years in the making Circle has been methodically building its presence in Japan since at least 2023, when it signed a partnership with SBI Holdings. That earlier deal focused on getting USDC authorized under Japanese regulations for distribution through SBI’s platform.
USDC launched on SBI VC Trade on March 26, 2025, making it the first approved foreign-issued stablecoin in Japan. The Nomura partnership represents the next phase: moving beyond exchange availability into actual payment infrastructure. SBI gave Circle the regulatory beachhead. Nomura gives Circle access to the corporate banking world, the clients who actually move billions in cross-border trade finance.
What this means for investors The immediate investment signal here is about USDC demand. If a USDC-based corporate payment system goes live in Japan’s massive trade economy by 2027, that creates structural buying pressure for the stablecoin. Companies converting yen to USDC for settlement purposes would need to hold or transact in USDC at scale, which directly supports Circle’s reserves and revenue model.
Tether has historically dominated stablecoin market share, but its presence in regulated markets like Japan has been limited precisely because of the compliance requirements that Circle has invested heavily in meeting.
The risk side of the ledger isn’t empty, though. Regulatory timelines in Japan can stretch. A 2027 target is ambitious, and any shifts in Japan’s digital asset policy could delay deployment. MOUs are statements of intent, not binding contracts. The real validation comes when Nomura begins onboarding corporate clients and processing live yen-to-USDC conversions.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.