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https://www.circle.com/blog/circle-and-usdc-expansion-with-hyperliquid

JPMorgan has expressed concerns about the rapid expansion of HyperliquidX, indicating that its growth could undermine the economic model of Circle’s USDC stablecoin. According to a social media report by @DegenerateNews, HyperliquidX’s expanding market presence and significant holdings in USDC are capturing yield revenues typically associated with Circle. Hyperliquid, known for its decentralized perpetual exchange platform, has amassed over $5 billion in USDC and processed significant volumes, suggesting a shift in the stablecoin landscape. This development raises questions about the future competitive dynamics between HyperliquidX and USDC, particularly as Hyperliquid aligns yields with its protocol through mechanisms like HYPE buybacks.

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Key Takeaways JPMorgan’s statement suggests that HyperliquidX’s growth is seen as a threat to Circle’s USDC economic model. HyperliquidX’s substantial USDC holdings and activity indicate a shift in stablecoin yield dynamics. Market pricing suggests a potential increase in confidence in Hyperliquid, with odds for its price reaching $100 by year-end adjusting accordingly. What to Watch Watch for Hyperliquid’s continued expansion and its impact on USDC’s market dominance. Developments such as major partnerships, technological advancements, or changes in institutional investor behavior could influence market perceptions. Observers should watch for any strategic moves by Circle to counter Hyperliquid’s influence on the stablecoin ecosystem. Additionally, fluctuations in the Hyperliquid market price will provide further indications of how these dynamics are evolving.

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Term Structure

Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 31% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 66.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.5% — — View market →

Confirmo has rolled out an automated stablecoin-based subscription payment service designed to help businesses simplify recurring billing using wallets, exchanges, and enterprise platforms. The new solution delivers automated, scheduled payments for subscription companies, software-as-a-service providers, and trading platforms across the global digital asset sector.

Enterprise subscription payments with stablecoinsThe platform, named Subscribe, enables enterprises to process recurring transactions in stablecoins without the need for separate blockchain infrastructure or complex new systems. Businesses can maintain their current payment configurations while adding support for automated digital asset payments.

Subscribe initially supports USDC, issued by Circle, and USDG, provided by Paxos, operating on both the Solana and Polygon blockchains. This integration extends recurring payment functionality to users transacting in these two stablecoins across multiple blockchain networks.

Customers can authorize recurring payments via hundreds of digital wallets compatible with WalletConnect, granting broad user access. By including both self-custody wallet options and exchange accounts, the service allows for flexibility in payment methods. Merchants benefit from automated settlements that follow predetermined billing dates, supporting seamless revenue management across global customer bases.

Confirmo has stated that subscription pricing remains denominated in US dollars, which serves to minimize exposure to the volatility common in the cryptocurrency markets. This approach helps businesses plan more predictable revenues and potentially reduce the expense of international transaction processing.

NetworkSupported StablecoinsPayment MethodsSolanaUSDC, USDGSelf-custody wallets, exchange accountsPolygonUSDC, USDGSelf-custody wallets, exchange accountsMerchants can view all scheduled and completed payments directly within the Confirmo dashboard, allowing them to manage both recurring subscriptions and other stablecoin payment activities from a single interface.

Mini dictionary: Confirmo is a fintech company focusing on automated blockchain payment solutions for businesses, offering services to help enterprises integrate digital asset transactions into their standard payment flows.

Development supported by FTMO partnershipConfirmo worked with FTMO, a proprietary trading firm, to design and test the subscription platform before commercial release. By involving FTMO as a design partner, Confirmo adapted Subscribe to address practical requirements of businesses facing operational challenges with cross-border and recurring stablecoin payments.

The service aligns with a wider industry trend to expand the use of stablecoins beyond trading activities toward payment automation, cross-border settlements, and recurring billing solutions.

Anna Kratky Strebl, Group CEO at Confirmo, stated that Subscribe equips merchants with a transparent, efficient approach for managing recurring revenue and offers consumers the convenience of using familiar digital wallets and accounts.

Confirmo emphasized that recurring payments are visible and managed from an integrated dashboard, providing transparency and control over subscription revenues. The company aims to offer reliable payment infrastructure to a growing digital asset user base worldwide.

Recent reports project the global subscription market to reach $1.2 trillion by 2030, underlining increasing demand for flexible and robust billing tools among businesses. The expansion of digital asset ownership further supports the case for blockchain-based solutions in enterprise payment operations.

Through the Subscribe platform, Confirmo intends to make enterprise-grade stablecoin payment automation more accessible, enabling companies to streamline international commerce and adapt to the evolving digital financial landscape.

Confirmo’s latest product demonstrates the company’s focus on delivering scalable, stablecoin-powered payment systems as subscriptions and digital assets gain traction in the wider economy.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Leading cryptocurrencies slid alongside stocks on Monday after President Donald Trump floated full U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz and a reimbursement fee on all cargo passing through.

Increased Selling PressureBitcoin tumbled below $62,000 as trading volume doubled over the last 24 hours to $37.15 billion.

Ethereum also experienced high volatility, with the second-largest cryptocurrency fluctuating between a low of $1,749.35 and a high of $1,812.94. XRP and Dogecoin extended their losses.

Over $360 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, predominantly in bullish long positions, according to Coinglass data

Bitcoin’s open interest, meanwhile, rose 2.24% over the last 24 hours. An increase in open interest combined with a price decrease indicates a short build-up, meaning new traders are actively shorting the asset.

"Extreme Fear" sentiment prevailed in the market, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Top Gainers (24 Hours) 

Stocks Stutter On Iran DevelopmentsStocks ended in the red on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 138.37 points, or 0.26%, to close at 52,498.64. The S&P 500 lost 0.79% to end at 7,515.34, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.55% to finish at 25,873.18.

Tensions worsened after Trump reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He also stated that the U.S. is considering taking control of the critical oil shipping point permanently in exchange for a 20% fee on cargo.

Whales Are Scooping Bitcoin?Ali Martinez, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, highlighted that Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score—an indicator measuring whether entities are buying or selling BTC—has stayed near 1 since June.

“A reading near 1 suggests that whales—or a large share of the network—are actively accumulating Bitcoin,” the analyst added.

“A healthier distribution of USDT and USDC can make crypto markets more resilient,” Santiment added. “Rather than idle capital waiting for a few whales to act, it’s a sign that stablecoin firepower is becoming more decentralized.”

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Solana (SOL) is presently trading around $76.33, holding just above a significant short-term support zone defined between $73 and $76. Despite a modest 0.41% gain over the past 24 hours, the overall market direction remains uncertain, drawing close attention from traders and analysts alike.

Key price levels and resistance targetsThe $73–$76 price range is widely recognized by SOL traders as a pivotal battleground. Holding above this band is considered critical to preserving the potential for further upward price momentum. Should SOL fall below $73, analysts warn that the token could face renewed selling pressure and risk a slide toward recent low points.

On the upside, market participants are eyeing $80 as the next challenge for buyers. If SOL manages to break through this level, the path toward $87.20, seen as a major daily resistance point, could open up. A daily close above $87 would represent a notable technical shift and pave the way for further increases.

Technical analyst Jesse Peralta has identified a descending trendline that Solana is currently testing from below. This trendline has limited upward moves for months, and market watchers believe a breakout above it could shift momentum in favor of buyers.

Mini dictionary: Descending trendline, a downward-sloping line connecting falling peaks, often used in technical analysis to identify resistance levels.

Following a breakout confirmed above this trendline, price targets at $90 and then $100 have been cited by analysts as key milestones. However, analysts caution that a lack of confirmation could trigger another downward move, especially if the support at $73 gives way.

Trader Michaël van de Poppe noted the current region is a decisive moment for SOL, stating that defending $73 could initiate a rapid upward move, while a failure might lead the token to revisit its recent lows in the coming weeks.

In addition to these short-term moves, chartist Seth has pointed to signs of a Wyckoff accumulation pattern in SOL’s recent action, suggesting a period of consolidation could be underway after a prolonged distribution phase.

Correction zones and accumulation opportunitiesCrypto Patel has shared a three-week chart showing SOL’s correction from its $240 high and its positioning below notable resistance bands at $95–$100 and $140. According to Patel, if current levels do not hold, long-term accumulation opportunities could emerge in the $30–$52 territory—zones historically associated with low-risk entry points for position traders.

To achieve a substantial recovery, analysts emphasize that SOL must regain and maintain the $95–$100 range. Moving above this region could provide the momentum needed for an eventual attempt at the $140 level.

Price LevelSignificance$73–$76Critical short-term support$80Initial upside target$87.20Major resistance$95–$100Recovery milestone$140Key long-term resistance$30–$52Potential accumulation area Analysts highlight that any sustained move above $95–$100 could signal the end of the correction and start a fresh bullish phase, while a return to $30–$52 would reflect a continued drawdown.

Network developments and transaction activitySolana, an open-source blockchain known for supporting high-performance decentralized applications, continues to attract notable activity on its network. In a recent development, digital assets firm Circle minted 250 million USDC on Solana, reinforcing strong liquidity conditions for the ecosystem.

The substantial USDC issuance points to ongoing adoption and transaction activity, bolstering sentiment among network participants even as the price faces uncertainty. Some market participants have also referenced $150 as a long-term upside goal, while cautioning that progress to this level depends on clearing several intermediate resistance levels: $80, $90, and $100.

On the daily chart, SOL remains supported by an ascending trendline, with a secondary support “cloud” noted in the $74–$77 range, providing additional technical backing for the token at current prices.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

According to an official announcement, Binance will delist and halt trading for four spot trading pairs—GLM/BTC, KNC/BTC, ONT/BTC, and XAI/USDC—at 03:00 UTC on July 17. The exchange stated that this adjustment is based on results of its regular reviews, with key factors including trading pair liquidity and trading volume. Corresponding spot trading bot services will also be terminated at the same time; users are required to update or cancel their related strategies in advance to avoid potential losses. Binance emphasized that only the above-mentioned spot trading pairs are being delisted, and the move does not affect trading of the relevant tokens on other spot trading pairs available on Binance.

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Japanese investment bank Mizuho stated that Circle’s final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish the First National Digital Currency Bank is a positive development, but it does not address the firm’s core current challenges. Mizuho maintains a "neutral" rating on Circle, warning that the market’s reaction to this positive news may be overly optimistic. The firm notes that since March this year, USDC’s circulating market capitalization has fallen by roughly $70 billion to around $740 billion, a sign of slowing growth momentum that could weigh on Circle’s transaction revenue and reserve earnings. Additionally, Mizuho highlights that Open USD (OUSD), a stablecoin complying with the GENIUS Act and launched by over 140 financial and tech firms including Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase, is intensifying market competition. As more consortium-based stablecoins emerge, the stablecoin sector may become more homogeneous, making it increasingly difficult for Circle to retain its competitive advantage.

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Brent crude oil breaks through $80 per barrel, rising 5.35% on the day.

According to Bitget market data, Brent crude oil has broken through $80 per barrel, rising 5.35% intraday; WTI crude oil is up more than 5.7% on the day, currently trading at $75.45.

5 hours ago

Waller: If the AI bubble bursts or sees a sharp correction, financial conditions will undergo significant changes.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if an AI-related asset bubble bursts or the market experiences a sharp correction, financial conditions will undergo "considerable changes." Waller noted he does not want the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates prematurely to avoid triggering a recession, but also emphasized that the Fed must not repeat the mistake of being slow to respond to inflation in 2021. He believes the current labor market remains stable, and there are "credible reasons" to expect inflation to continue falling without further policy tightening. However, Waller warned that relying solely on market expectations of inflation declining is insufficient to justify the Fed holding pat. If the Fed waits until market confidence fades to act, it may have to raise interest rates more aggressively to catch up with inflation. "We cannot afford to turn a blind eye to inflation until it is completely gone," he said.

5 hours ago

Jul 13, 2026, 4:34 p.m.

2 min read

Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO. (HK Fintech Week)Summary

Mizuho said Circle's final OCC approval for a national trust bank is a positive step but doesn't address the company's core challenges. The bank pointed to USDC's declining market capitalization since March as a key concern. The report also warned that Open USD, a new consortium-backed stablecoin, could accelerate competition and pressure Circle's business.Circle Internet Group's (CRCL) final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish First National Digital Currency Bank is a positive milestone, but investors may be overestimating its significance, according to Japanese investment bank Mizuho.

"While a positive development, we believe the market reaction is likely overly optimistic, as this does not resolve fundamental issues that have been hurting the stock of recent," analysts led by Dan Dolev said in the Friday report.

Shares of the stablecoin issuer closed 5% higher on Friday following the news. The stock on Monday has given back most of those gains, trading 4.7% lower at $63.03 at publication time.

Mizuho reiterated its neutral rating, arguing that the regulatory approval does not resolve the fundamental issues weighing on the stock.

Those challenges include a decline in USDC's market capitalization since March 2026, which the bank said raises questions about the stablecoin's growth trajectory.

Circle's USDC stablecoin has faced headwinds in recent months, with its circulating supply falling by roughly $7 billion from its March peak to about $74 billion in July as redemptions outpaced new issuance. The contraction marks the largest monthly decline since 2022 and has raised concerns among analysts that slowing supply growth could weigh on the firm's transaction and reserve-income outlook, even as on-chain usage remains strong

The stablecoin market posted its largest monthly contraction in years in June, signaling an outflow of on-chain liquidity as crypto markets remained stuck near their 2026 lows.

The analysts also highlighted increasing competitive pressure from Open USD, a newly launched, GENIUS Act-compliant dollar-backed stablecoin developed by a consortium of more than 140 financial and technology companies, including Mastercard (MA), Stripe and Coinbase (COIN).

According to Mizuho, the emergence of consortium-backed stablecoins underscores the risk that the sector becomes increasingly commoditized, making it more difficult for Circle to sustain its competitive position despite securing a national trust bank charter.

"We remain on the sidelines," the report added.

Read more: Circle soars after securing U.S. trust bank approval in crypto expansion

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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Japanese investment bank Mizuho reaffirmed its neutral stance on Circle Internet Group after the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted final approval for Circle’s First National Digital Currency Bank. While the regulatory approval marks a significant step for Circle, Mizuho indicated that the move does not resolve key challenges facing the stablecoin issuer.

USDC faces declining market capitalizationMizuho analysts, led by Dan Dolev, highlighted Circle’s continuing struggle with the shrinking circulation of its USDC stablecoin. According to the team, USDC’s circulating supply dropped by approximately $7 billion from its March peak, settling near $74 billion in July, as redemptions outpaced new issuance. This marks the largest monthly contraction since 2022, reflecting broader market conditions and reduced demand for dollar-backed tokens.

The decline contributed to a limited rise in Circle’s share price. After gaining 5% on Friday amid news of the OCC approval, shares retreated 4.7% to $63.03 by Monday, erasing most of the initial gains. Mizuho maintained its neutral rating, noting that Circle’s core issues, such as stablecoin market dynamics and competitive risks, remain unresolved despite the regulatory breakthrough.

While Mizuho’s analysts acknowledged the OCC approval as a positive development, they questioned whether the market’s optimism accurately reflects underlying business challenges, particularly the stagnant growth trajectory of USDC amid market headwinds.

The wider stablecoin market also experienced its steepest monthly contraction in years during June, with overall on-chain liquidity falling as cryptocurrency prices hovered near 2026 lows.

Competition from consortium-backed stablecoinsCircle now faces intensified competition from new entrants, notably Open USD—a recently launched, GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin backed by a consortium of over 140 financial technology companies. Major firms such as Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase have joined this initiative, which Mizuho believes could exert additional pressure on Circle’s market position.

The emergence of Open USD demonstrates industry efforts to create more secure, compliant, and widely accepted stablecoins. Mizuho suggested that as consortium-based stablecoins proliferate, the sector could become increasingly commoditized, making differentiation more difficult for individual issuers like Circle.

Mini dictionary: GENIUS Act, short for Guidelines for Ensuring the Neutral and Inclusive Use of Stablecoins, is a legislative framework in the US aimed at establishing standards for stablecoin issuance and oversight to ensure security, transparency, and regulatory compliance.

The entry of Open USD signals a more competitive environment for stablecoin issuers. Mizuho argued that Circle’s recently secured national trust bank charter may not be sufficient to maintain its competitive edge as the stablecoin landscape evolves.

StablecoinBackersKey FeaturesCirculating Supply
(July 2026)USDCCircleFully backed, transparent, long-time market presence~$74 billionOpen USDConsortium (Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, etc.)GENIUS Act-compliant, consortium-governedN/A (recently launched)Industry outlook and ongoing challengesCircle Internet Group, founded in 2013, is known primarily for its USDC stablecoin, which has become one of the top dollar-backed tokens in the industry. However, the recent competitive dynamics and ongoing market contraction point to growing challenges for standalone stablecoin providers.

Mizuho concluded that while regulatory progress is notable, investors should recognize the persistent risks posed by slowing growth, increased competition, and broader market volatility.

Mizuho’s report indicated that the stablecoin sector may be entering a transition phase, with new regulatory standards and product innovations shaping future competition and sustainability.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

https://dmarketforces.com/solana-gains-on-booming-non-usdc-usdt-stablecoin-supply/

The supply of non-USDC/USDT stablecoins on the Solana network has experienced a remarkable increase, growing approximately 15 times since January 2025, according to data from @tokenterminal. This escalation has brought the supply to $3.8 billion by mid-2026, although initial reports suggested a higher figure. The growth in alternative stablecoin supply reflects increased capital inflows and places Solana as a significant player in the stablecoin market, ranking third globally after Ethereum and TRON. The surge in stablecoin supply appears consistent with a broader trend of liquidity growth and network adoption.

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In response to these developments, market participants seem to be evaluating the potential impact on Solana’s native token, SOL. The current market pricing suggests a cautious outlook, with a 12.5% probability of SOL reaching $90 by the end of July 2026. The increase in non-USDC/USDT stablecoin supply may indicate growing liquidity and potential demand for SOL, influencing its price dynamics in the coming weeks.

Key Takeaways The non-USDC/USDT stablecoin supply on Solana appears to have grown significantly, suggesting increased network liquidity. Market pricing implies limited expectations for SOL to reach $90 by the end of July, with a 12.5% likelihood. The expansion in stablecoin supply may indicate enhanced capital inflows and adoption of the Solana network. What to Watch Watch for any further developments in Solana’s stablecoin ecosystem, as continued growth could influence SOL’s market dynamics. Key indicators include potential regulatory changes, technological upgrades, and shifts in broader market sentiment. Additionally, any announcements regarding new partnerships or projects on the Solana network could provide further insights into its growth trajectory and impact on SOL’s pricing.

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Term Structure

Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h August 1 2026 12.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 2.2% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.9% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.9% — — View market → August 1 2026 4% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.7% — — View market → August 1 2026 15% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 1.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 60% — — View market →

Crypto Bear Market? These Reports Say the Industry Has Never Been Stronger

Two Rivals Eat Into USDC as Circle Stock Price Eyes a Drop to $40

The stablecoin market experienced a sharp contraction in June, with the total supply dropping by $7.7 billion to nearly $312 billion. This marked the largest single-month decline since the collapse of TerraUSD in May 2022, erasing more than $10 billion from the record highs reached the previous month.

Stablecoin Leaders Drive OutflowsAccording to data from DeFiLlama, the combined stablecoin supply hovered at approximately $312.23 billion at the end of June. Tether’s USDT, which remains the world’s leading stablecoin by market capitalization, accounted for $184.15 billion of the total. Circle’s USDC, the second-largest, held a supply of about $73.41 billion.

In June, the circulating supply of USDT fell from roughly $190 billion in May, resulting in a decrease of about $6 billion. USDC experienced a similar shift, dropping by approximately $7 billion since its March peak of $80 billion. These two tokens continued to account for the vast majority of global stablecoin liquidity.

The combined declines in USDT and USDC made up the majority of the contraction in the stablecoin market. While smaller regulated issuers reported growth during this period, their increases were not enough to counteract the drawdowns in the two largest stablecoins.

Paul Howard, a senior director at trading firm Wincent, described this reduction as a “small retreat,” emphasizing that the industry is still viewed as a long-term growth space. He also pointed out that the market’s current shrinkage remains well below the 26% contraction seen in 2022.

The events of 2022, including the collapse of the Terra protocol and insolvency filings from major crypto lenders and FTX, had triggered a much more severe market drawdown. In contrast, the recent decline did not lead to stablecoins breaking their dollar pegs or create a wider crisis in digital asset markets.

Market Impact and Shifting Investment TrendsStablecoins serve as primary settlement and quoting assets across both centralized and decentralized exchanges, underpinning much of the crypto trading ecosystem. Analysts have suggested that declining stablecoin supply may reflect greater redemption of tokens for bank dollars or an outflow of capital from the crypto industry.

Reduced supply can also decrease the purchasing power available for dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin and Ether. This, in turn, may negatively affect market liquidity during periods of selling pressure. Despite this, market observers note that the fall did not disrupt stablecoin pegs or create short-term instability among major tokens.

Trading activity for crypto investment products in the United States mirrored these outflows, as US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw redemptions totaling more than $4 billion in June, marking their weakest monthly performance since launch.

Conversely, the market for tokenized real-world assets diverged from the general crypto trend. Blockchain-based tokenized assets recorded on-chain valuation exceeding $30 billion in 2026, spurred mainly by tokenized US Treasury products, investment funds, and private credit products.

CoinDesk Research reported that trading volumes in tokenized equities surged 145% in June, reaching a record $3.86 billion. This spike highlighted ongoing demand for blockchain-based financial products, even as traditional crypto liquidity remained subdued.

Mini dictionary: Tokenized real-world assets are digital representations of traditional financial instruments—such as bonds, equities, or real estate—issued and transacted on blockchain networks for greater accessibility and transparency.

StablecoinMay SupplyJune SupplyChangeUSDT$190 billion$184.15 billion– $6 billionUSDC$80 billion (March)$73.41 billion– $7 billionTotal stablecoinsRecord high (May 2026)$312.23 billion– $7.7 billion (June)Regulatory Landscape and OutlookRegulation of the stablecoin market is evolving alongside these shifts. The United States introduced the GENIUS Act, placing oversight of payment stablecoins at the federal level and introducing new standards related to customer identification, sanctions, and reserve requirements.

Despite the slowdown, both USDT and USDC maintained their dollar pegs, and stablecoin transaction volumes and underlying supply metrics held relatively steady compared with more volatile periods in the past.

Further reductions in stablecoin supply could signal additional liquidity leaving crypto markets in coming months. By contrast, a rebound would suggest the market is consolidating after a rapid expansion earlier in 2026. Market participants are closely watching upcoming data to determine whether capital is exiting crypto altogether or shifting among different issuers and blockchain-based products.

The current reduction, while the largest since 2022, has not resulted in a crisis or widespread loss of stablecoin pegs, suggesting relative stability even amid investor outflows.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

US pre-market news roundup: Intel plans to invest €5 billion to expand its Irish factory; storage and semiconductor equipment sectors fall across the board in pre-market trading.

Key pre-market news for U.S. stocks is as follows: 1. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs will kick off Q2 earnings reports on Tuesday, while Morgan Stanley will release its results on Wednesday. Markets expect U.S. large banks’ investment banking and trading revenues to surge, driven by SpaceX’s IPO, rising M&A activity, and market volatility sparked by the Iran situation; 2. Trump claimed Iran always breaks agreements, so the U.S. will strike hard at Iran, take control of the strait, and likely dominate it in the future; 3. SK Hynix’s U.S. ADR trades at a 23.4% premium to its South Korean shares; 4. Semiconductor equipment and storage sectors fell across the board pre-market, with KLAC down 3.7%, SanDisk and Western Digital both dropping over 5%; 5. Spot gold and silver fell broadly, with gold down 1.32% and silver down 2.23%; 6. Crude oil markets fell broadly, with U.S. crude up 3.35% and Brent crude up 3.53%; 7. Strategy did not add to its Bitcoin holdings last week, selling 4.82 million units to raise $467 million; 8. Bitmine added 27,801 ETH to its holdings last week, bringing its total staked ETH to 4.917 million, with an estimated annual staking income of $242 million.

1 seconds ago

South Korean stock market faces a margin trading crisis, with forced liquidations totaling 344.2 billion won in July.

According to data from the Korea Financial Investment Association, the recent sharp decline in South Korea's stock market has triggered accelerated deleveraging of margin trading positions. The total forced liquidation volume in July has reached 344.2 billion won, with the single-day forced liquidation amount on July 9 hitting 142.2 billion won. As forced liquidation data lags by two trading days, the clearing pressure from the nearly 9% plunge in the KOSPI on July 13 has not yet been fully reflected, and the market expects subsequent liquidation volumes to rise further. On July 13, South Korea's KOSPI index closed down 8.95%, triggering the Sidecar (seller order suspension mechanism) and Level 1 Circuit Breaker during intraday trading. The semiconductor sector plummeted, with SK Hynix falling 15.37%—its largest single-day drop in history—and Samsung Electronics down 10.7%. Meanwhile, South Korean retail investors' margin sizes, margin loan balances, and investor deposits have all continued to decline, with the market trapped in a deleveraging cycle of "stock price drop—forced liquidation—further decline".

1 seconds ago

Trump and Iran deliver tough, tit-for-tat statements, with both sides refusing to back down on the Strait of Hormuz issue.

US President Donald Trump and an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader have successively made tough remarks on the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that the US will become the "guardian" and "guardian angel" of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that the US has guarded the strait for free in the past and will recover its operational costs and compensate for the risks it has taken to maintain the strait’s security in the future. He also said that the US will control the Strait of Hormuz and "is very likely to dominate the strait" in the future, adding that every time Iran deploys drones, the US will strike back fiercely. In addition, Trump revealed that the US and Iran held 11-hour talks yesterday. The advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader responded that no Iranian believes Iran should give up the Strait of Hormuz. Iran defends the Strait of Hormuz to avoid being forced to pay "ransom" for the passage of its own ships in the future. He emphasized that the strategic, security and economic status of the Strait of Hormuz is irreplaceable, and Iran will never back down on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz.

1 seconds ago

HSK Chain launches Phase 3 of its HSK Staking campaign, upgrading the ecosystem's long-term incentive mechanism.

According to official announcements, HSK Chain’s Phase 3 staking campaign officially launched on July 13. This phase sets a maximum total staking cap and adopts a diversified incentive model, with participants eligible for corresponding expected ecosystem incentives per on-chain rules. Additionally, users who took part in previous staking phases and consistently supported ecosystem development will receive extra ecosystem subsidies based on their historical locked contributions, comprehensively enhancing on-chain participation benefits. It is understood that this staking campaign, while rewarding HSK holders and past participants, will further drive the long-term steady growth of the HSK Chain ecosystem. As on-chain developers, high-quality projects, and institutional-grade assets continue to onboard, this upgrade to the long-term incentive mechanism will serve as a core initiative for the ecosystem’s long-term development.

1 seconds ago

BBC investigation finds Instagram still hosts ads for child sexual abuse content, Meta’s AI moderation mechanism faces renewed scrutiny

Despite Meta’s ongoing heavy investment in AI infrastructure, a new BBC investigation has found that Instagram is still serving users in India with advertisements containing child sexual abuse material (CSAM), and some of these ads are still deemed by the platform’s moderation system as “not violating community guidelines” even after being reported. The report states that a test account created by the BBC received around 30 CSAM-related ads within a week, without any prior searches for such content, and these ads directed users to Telegram channels to purchase the illegal material. The Indian government has ordered Meta to remove the relevant ads and explain within seven days why its moderation mechanism failed. The report notes that Meta’s 2025 ad revenue reached $201 billion, accounting for approximately 97% of its total revenue, while its AI infrastructure investment in the same period hit $72.2 billion. The company plans to raise its capital expenditure to between $125 billion and $145 billion in 2026. The article points out that Meta’s current controversies stem more from platform governance and commercial incentives rather than a lack of AI technical capabilities.

1 seconds ago

Institutions: The crypto market continued deleveraging in Q2, with spot trading volume hitting its lowest level since Q3 2023.

According to FalconX’s latest market analysis, the crypto market sustained its deleveraging trend in the second quarter of 2026. Spot trading volume on major platforms fell to $1.6 trillion, down 25% quarter-over-quarter and 42% year-over-year, hitting its lowest level since the third quarter of 2023. Futures trading volume dropped to $9 trillion, a 12% quarter-over-quarter and 31% year-over-year decline. The report shows that by the end of Q2, the total open interest (OI) of futures across the market fell to $53.2 billion, a sharp pullback from the peak of $122.2 billion in October 2025, while trading turnover ratio decreased to 1.6x, reflecting a shift in the market from high-frequency speculation to long-term holding. On the capital flow front, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $4.9 billion in Q2, expanding the year-to-date cumulative net outflow to $5.4 billion. Total stablecoin supply shrank by $7.4 billion to $313.8 billion, marking the first contraction in recent quarters. FalconX notes that the current market deleveraging process is largely complete, with open interest stabilizing and trading volume showing signs of recovery in June. Looking ahead to the third quarter, the progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act legislation and ETF capital flows will be key catalysts shaping market trends.

1 seconds ago

Circle Wins Final OCC Approval to Launch a National Trust Bank for Digital Asset Custody

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Intel will invest 5 billion euros to expand its factory in Ireland.

Intel (INTC.O) will invest 50 billion euros (approximately $57 billion) to expand its factory in Ireland, aiming to recapture its leading position in manufacturing amid the artificial intelligence boom. In a statement, Intel said the investment will boost production capacity at its Leixlip campus outside Dublin, as part of the company’s plan to increase output of data center processors. The expansion will enhance manufacturing capabilities for products including its flagship Xeon server processors, while advancing research and development activities. Intel Executive Vice President Naga Chandrasekaran noted in a statement that the move is also part of the company’s plan to improve delivery capacity for its foundry business. Intel’s foundry arm, which manufactures chips for other tech companies, is a core component of its revitalization strategy, designed to strengthen its competitiveness against rivals such as TSMC.

8 minutes ago

Trump: The United States may take charge of managing the Strait of Hormuz in the future.

US President Trump posted that he may "operate" the Strait of Hormuz in the future, stating that if the US takes the lead in managing the Strait of Hormuz, the US will receive compensation. "We will become the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz."

8 minutes ago

US media: Trump's so-called "standing retaliation order against Iran" cannot take effect automatically after his death.

According to the Associated Press, in response to recent remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump that he has ordered the U.S. military to launch large-scale strikes on Iran if he is assassinated by Tehran, there is no so-called "dead man’s switch" mechanism in U.S. law that automatically triggers military retaliation upon the president’s death. Under the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and the Presidential Succession Act, if the president dies, Vice President JD Vance will immediately assume the presidency and the role of commander-in-chief, with military command authority transferring simultaneously. The successor president will independently decide whether to execute, modify, or cancel the relevant orders of the predecessor. Experts note that while the U.S. has established government continuity and nuclear contingency plans, it has never allowed the military to automatically launch retaliatory actions based on preset orders after the president’s death.

8 minutes ago

Bitmine increased its holdings of 27,801 ETH last week, pushing its total staked amount to 4.917 million ETH, with projected annual staking revenue of $242 million.

Bitmine announced it purchased an additional 27,801 ETH over the past week, and will maintain its steady accumulation pace that has been in place since 2026. The company expects to achieve its so-called "Alchemy of 5%" target this year. As of July 12, Bitmine holds a total of 5.77 million ETH, of which 4.917 million ETH (accounting for 85% of its holdings) has been staked. At an ETH price of $1,820, the total value of its ETH holdings is approximately $9 billion. Based on an annual staking yield of 2.70%, the company’s annual staking revenue is around $242 million; if all its ETH is staked, annual staking rewards would reach $284 million. Additionally, Bitmine said it launched MAVAN (Made in American Validator Network), an institutional-grade Ethereum staking platform, this year, which will be opened to institutional investors, custodian institutions, and ecosystem partners. Bitmine also noted that it is currently the world’s largest ETH reserve institution, and ranks second globally in terms of crypto asset reserve size, trailing only Strategy, which holds 843,775 BTC. The company further stated that the GENIUS Act and the U.S. SEC’s Project Crypto will drive transformation in digital asset financial infrastructure, an impact comparable to that of the end of the 1971 Bretton Woods system on Wall Street’s modernization.

8 minutes ago

Hyundai Motor completes enterprise-level USDT cross-border settlement pilot, with cross-border fund transfers finished in just 7 minutes.

Tether announced that Hyundai Motor America and Hyundai Motor Mexico have completed an enterprise cross-border settlement proof of concept (POC) on the Avalanche network via Axiym, marking Tether’s first enterprise cross-border fund settlement pilot. During the pilot, Hyundai Motor America converted $20,000 into USDT, transferred the funds cross-border to Hyundai Motor Mexico, which then converted the amount back to USD. The entire cross-border transfer and verification process took an average of just 7 minutes, a notable acceleration compared to traditional bank cross-border remittances, which typically take 3 to 4 hours or longer. Tether noted that the pilot demonstrates stablecoins’ application potential in enterprise cross-border payments, fund management, and global fund allocation. In the next phase, the project will explore additional cross-border payment channels and local currency settlement scenarios, further evaluating stablecoins’ use in enterprise treasury management.

8 minutes ago

Trump: I am taking over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran got nothing at all.

US President Donald Trump said, “We are taking over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has nothing right now. Iran is not getting anything.”

8 minutes ago

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Major crypto exchange OKX has sent out a notice to users of USDC on the Solana blockchain, announcing a temporary suspension of deposit and withdrawal services due to scheduled wallet maintenance.

OKX said the temporary pause is due to wallet maintenance and will take place in the next 24 hours, on July 14.

由于钱包维护，我们将于7月14日14:30 (UTC+8) 暂停 USDC 在 Solana 网络的充提服务，待维护完成后恢复。

相关代币的交易不受影响，请勿在钱包维护期间进行 USDC 的充提操作，以免造成资金损失，感谢您的理解与支持~

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— OKX中文 (@okxchinese) July 13, 2026 Due to wallet maintenance, OKX said it will suspend USDC deposit and withdrawal services on the Solana network on July 14 at 14:30 (UTC+8), and resume them after the maintenance is completed.

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The exchange added that trading services will continue to operate normally as trading of related tokens will not be affected. Users are, however, urged to refrain from performing USDC deposits or withdrawals during the wallet maintenance period to avoid potential fund losses.

USDC on Solana is native to the Solana blockchain and can be swapped across chains. Circle has just issued an additional 250 million USDC on the Solana network.

Solana newsIn a recent milestone, Solana has crossed epoch 1,000, marking the finalization of 432,000 slots on Solana and highlighting over 5.5 years of Solana.

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1,000 epochs also marked 120.5 billion total non-vote transactions, $4.3 trillion traded on Solana DEXes, $193.5 trillion in stablecoins transferred on Solana rails, 2 years and 154 days of 100% availability, multiple unicorns building on Solana, 78,000 unique developers, and over 7.4 million commits on Git repos.

As reported by Wu Blockchain, Japanese financial giant SBI Holdings and the Solana Foundation have announced a strategic partnership to develop Japan-originated onchain financial markets.

As part of the initiative, the Solana Foundation will join SBI R3 Japan, which is set to be renamed SBI Solana Global, alongside SBI and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), one of Japan's three megabanks.  

The partnership will focus on JPY stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) including bonds, funds, and real estate, cross-border payment infrastructure, and institutional onchain financial services. SBI said the initiative aims to connect Japan's regulated financial markets with global blockchain liquidity and position Japan as a hub for onchain finance in Asia.

https://www.cryptoninjas.net/news/circle-mints-250-million-in-usdc-on-solana-a-major-boost-for-defi-liquidity/

Circle has minted an additional $250 million of USDC on the Solana blockchain, according to a report by @martypartymusic. This issuance is part of a broader trend in 2026, where USDC minting on Solana has reached approximately $64.25 billion to $64.78 billion. The increased issuance suggests sustained demand for dollar liquidity on Solana, reinforcing its competitive position as a key settlement layer for stablecoin transactions and decentralized finance (DeFi) activities. Market participants appear to interpret this development as supportive of Solana’s price prospects, with the additional liquidity potentially influencing Solana’s ability to reach higher price targets in July.

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Key Takeaways The $250 million USDC issuance on Solana appears to suggest continued demand for stablecoin liquidity in the network. Markets seem to view the increased liquidity as consistent with a positive outlook for Solana’s price, possibly affecting its potential to reach $90 in July. The cumulative USDC issuance on Solana for 2026 highlights its growing role in stablecoin and DeFi ecosystems. What to Watch Observers are monitoring the impact of increased USDC liquidity on Solana’s price trajectory, particularly in relation to its potential to reach the $90 mark in July. Key indicators include market responses to liquidity changes and any significant price movements. Additionally, developments in the broader crypto market and macroeconomic factors could influence Solana’s price dynamics, affecting the likelihood of reaching set targets.

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Term Structure

Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h August 1 2026 20% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 2.4% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.9% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.8% — — View market → August 1 2026 4% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.8% — — View market → August 1 2026 13% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 1.8% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 48% — — View market →

The stablecoin market has lost about $10 billion since reaching a record high in May 2026. Total supply fell by $7.7 billion during June to about $312 billion, marking the largest monthly decline in dollar terms since the TerraUSD collapse in May 2022. The decrease equaled roughly 2.4% for June and about 3% from the May peak. 

Summary

Stablecoin supply lost $10 billion since May as USDT and USDC redemptions reduced crypto liquidity. June recorded the largest monthly dollar decline since Terra, but the market contracted only 3%. Transaction volumes remained strong while tokenized assets expanded, showing blockchain finance activity continued despite redemptions. Current DefiLlama data places the market near $312.23 billion. The dashboard shows Tether’s USDT at about $184.15 billion and Circle’s USDC at roughly $73.41 billion. USDT still controls close to 59% of the market, leaving the sector heavily dependent on its two largest dollar-backed tokens.

USDT and USDC lead the supply reduction USDT fell from about $190 billion in May, cutting roughly $6 billion from its circulating value. USDC declined from a March peak near $80 billion, losing almost $7 billion over four months. Together, those changes account for most of the retreat, although smaller regulated issuers continued expanding during the same period. 

Paul Howard, senior director at trading firm Wincent, described the decline as “a relatively small pullback in what we believe is a long-term growth market.” The current drawdown remains far below the 26% stablecoin contraction recorded across the 2022 bear market. That earlier decline followed the Terra failure, lender collapses, and the failure of FTX.

Stablecoin Market Loses $10B Since May in Biggest Retreat Since the Terra Crash

According to CoinDesk, stablecoin market capitalization has fallen by roughly $10 billion from its May peak, including a $7.7 billion drop in June—the largest monthly decline in dollar terms since… pic.twitter.com/RafAPoaerJ

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 12, 2026 Lower supply points to thinner crypto liquidity Traders use stablecoins as settlement assets and quote currencies across exchanges and decentralized markets. A falling supply can show that users redeemed tokens for bank dollars or moved capital outside crypto. It can also reduce the amount of dollar-linked buying power available for Bitcoin, Ether, and other digital assets.

The reduction arrived during a weak month for crypto investment products.Crypto.news reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds lost more than $4 billion in June, their worst monthly outflow since launch. The parallel declines show that institutional fund demand and on-chain dollar liquidity both weakened as digital asset prices remained under pressure.

Activity did not fall at the same pace as supply. The adjusted stablecoin transaction volume reached a record $1.78 trillion in June. USDC processed about $1.21 trillion, while USDT handled $573 billion. USDT still recorded more individual transfers, showing that fewer tokens can continue supporting heavy payment and trading activity.

Tokenized assets grow while stablecoins retreat Tokenized real-world assets moved in the opposite direction. However, their on-chain value crossed $30 billion during 2026, led by tokenized Treasury products, funds, and private credit. CoinDesk Research also recorded a 145% rise in tokenized equity volume during June to a record $3.86 billion.

Regulation and new issuers continue reshaping the stablecoin market. The U.S. GENIUS Act created a federal framework for payment stablecoins, while regulators are drafting customer identification, sanctions, and reserve rules. Crypto.news has also tracked new reserve products from Fidelity and State Street designed for regulated issuers.

The latest supply figures point to a pause in market expansion rather than a Terra-style collapse. USDT and USDC remain near their dollar pegs, transaction activity remains high, and the total market retains most of its recent growth. Further monthly contractions would provide clearer evidence that crypto liquidity is leaving the system rather than moving between issuers or on-chain products.

Investors will now watch July issuance, redemption data, exchange volumes, and ETF flows for signs that demand is returning or weakening further.

PANews, July 12 news, according to CoinDesk report, the stablecoin market in June saw its largest pullback in recent years, with total market cap shrinking by $7.7 billion that month, the biggest single-month decline since the Terra-Luna collapse in May 2022. Since the peak in May, the stablecoin market has cumulatively shrunk by about $10 billion, with a total market cap decline of about 3%. Among them, two major stablecoin issuers were the main drivers of this pullback. The market cap of USDT issued by Tether fell from about $190 billion in May to $184 billion, a decrease of about $6 billion; USDC issued by Circle retreated from a peak of nearly $80 billion in March 2026 to about $73 billion, a contraction of about $7 billion.

However, compared with the cumulative decline of over 26% in the stablecoin market during the crypto winter of 2022, the magnitude of this round of adjustment is still relatively mild. Data shows that from March 2022 to September 2023, the total market cap of major stablecoins fell from about $166 billion to $122 billion, during which the TerraUSD crash, FTX bankruptcy, and failures of multiple crypto lending institutions severely hit market liquidity.

Despite overall market pressure, the competitive landscape of the stablecoin industry is changing. As regulatory developments like the U.S. GENIUS Act drive the expansion of stablecoins into payment and settlement scenarios, more issuers are entering the fray. The circulation of USDG, issued by Paxos and supported by institutions such as Robinhood, has exceeded $3.2 billion, while the circulation of USDGO launched by Anchorage Digital and Hong Kong's OSL Group has nearly doubled to $900 million.

Wall Street institutions remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of stablecoins. Citi previously estimated that the global stablecoin market size would reach $1.9 trillion under a base-case scenario and $4 trillion under an optimistic scenario by 2030; Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the stablecoin market size will grow to $2 trillion by 2028. Analysts point out that stablecoin supply growth has historically been one of the important drivers of a crypto bull market, while the current overall supply contraction means reduced new on-chain liquidity. Without support from new capital demand, the difficulty for crypto assets to sustain their rise may increase.

TL;DR Stablecoin market capitalization fell by about $10 billion from its May peak, with June recording the biggest monthly dollar decline since the 2022 Terra crash. USDT’s supply dropped from around $190 billion to $184 billion, while USDC declined to approximately $73 billion, leading the overall contraction. Despite the headline decline, the stablecoin market shrank by only about 3%, indicating that most of the sector’s recent growth remains intact. Even as stablecoin supply declined, tokenized real-world assets reached new highs. The stablecoin market has recorded its largest monthly contraction since the collapse of TerraUSD in 2022, with total market capitalization falling by roughly $10 billion from its May peak. 

While the decline has raised concerns about liquidity across the digital asset market, analysts note that the overall contraction remains relatively modest at around 3%, suggesting the sector continues to retain most of the gains accumulated over the past year. 

The retreat comes as crypto markets navigate weaker investor sentiment, persistent ETF outflows, and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty that has weighed on demand for digital assets.

Tether’s USDT, the world’s largest stablecoin, accounted for much of the decline, with its circulating supply falling from roughly $190 billion to $184 billion. USDC also contracted, dropping to around $73 billion during the same period. Together, the two dominant dollar-backed stablecoins represent the overwhelming majority of on-chain liquidity used across centralized and decentralized crypto markets. 

Stablecoin Data | Source: X Although the market lost billions of dollars in capitalization, the overall decline represented only a small percentage of the sector’s total value, highlighting that stablecoin adoption remains significantly higher than it was before the recent expansion cycle.

Stablecoin Market Liquidity Concerns Return to The Spotlight Stablecoins are widely viewed as the primary source of liquidity within the cryptocurrency ecosystem because they are commonly used to enter and exit positions without converting back into traditional fiat currencies.

A shrinking stablecoin supply is often interpreted as a sign that capital is leaving digital asset markets or remaining on the sidelines. The combined supply of USDT and USDC had been falling since early May, reflecting weaker on-chain liquidity during a period marked by declining crypto prices and softer institutional inflows. 

The reduction also coincided with several weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, reinforcing concerns that investor demand cooled during June.

Despite the decline in supply, trading activity remained relatively resilient. Stablecoin trading volume on centralized exchanges rose 10.8% in June to approximately $981 billion, marking the first monthly increase in five months. The increase suggests that stablecoins continue to play a central role in crypto trading even as total circulating supply contracts. 

Tokenized Assets Continue Expanding While stablecoins experienced their sharpest pullback in years, tokenized real-world assets continued moving in the opposite direction.

Recent data found that the total market capitalization of tokenized assets climbed to a record $30.1 billion in June, driven by continued growth in tokenized U.S. Treasuries and public equities. Tokenized Treasury products alone expanded to approximately $17 billion, while tokenized equity trading volumes surged to fresh highs during the month.

The contrasting trends suggest that although short-term liquidity has weakened, institutional interest in blockchain-based financial infrastructure continues to grow.

The broader stablecoin sector is also benefiting from increasing regulatory clarity. Recent developments include new licensing approvals for major issuers and expanding institutional support for dollar-backed digital assets. 

Circle, the issuer of USDC, recently received approval to operate as a federally regulated trust bank in the United States, allowing it to directly oversee reserves backing its stablecoin as it now dominates over USDT. The move reflects growing integration between traditional finance and digital asset infrastructure despite the recent market slowdown. 

Market participants will now be watching whether stablecoin issuance resumes in the coming months. A return to supply growth would likely signal renewed capital entering the crypto ecosystem, while continued contraction could point to a more cautious investment environment during the second half of the year.

Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, paid Coinbase $908 million in distribution costs and revenue sharing during 2024. That figure represents roughly 54% of Circle’s total revenue for the year, making Coinbase less of a distribution partner and more of a landlord collecting majority rent.

The arrangement, formalized through a Collaboration Agreement that took effect on August 18, 2023, is approaching its first major renewal window in August 2026.

The economics of a lopsided partnership Coinbase earns 100% of the reserve interest generated on USDC held directly on its platform. For USDC held anywhere else in the world, Coinbase still collects 50% of that interest income.

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For Coinbase, stablecoin-related revenue is projected to reach approximately $1.35 billion in 2025. USDC-related activities accounted for roughly 13.8% of Coinbase’s total revenue in 2024, a figure large enough that any disruption to the partnership would show up clearly in quarterly earnings.

How we got here The current arrangement replaced a previous structure called the Centre Consortium, a joint venture that both companies operated together. When they restructured in August 2023, Circle took sole governance and issuance control of USDC.

As part of that restructuring, Coinbase also took an equity stake in Circle. The Collaboration Agreement runs on an initial three-year term through August 2026, with automatic three-year renewals that depend on performance metrics.

Coinbase’s wandering eye In June 2026, Coinbase endorsed Open USD, a rival stablecoin project. The market reaction was swift: Circle’s stock price dropped more than 17%.

What this means for investors The August 2026 renewal window is the most important date on the calendar for anyone with exposure to either company or to USDC itself. A renegotiation that shifts more revenue toward Circle would hurt Coinbase’s stablecoin income, while a deal that maintains the current structure keeps Circle’s margins under pressure.

For Coinbase investors, the $1.35 billion in projected stablecoin revenue for 2025 represents a substantial revenue stream. Stablecoin demand tends to persist even during bear markets, since traders use stablecoins to park capital, making this revenue line more resilient than Coinbase’s trading fee income.

If Coinbase actively promotes rival stablecoins on its platform, the 50% revenue share on off-platform USDC becomes less valuable as total USDC circulation potentially shrinks. Circle would then face the worst of both worlds: paying high distribution costs on a shrinking asset base.

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