Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

European Lithium shareholders just handed Critical Metals full control of a prized Greenland rare earth project, yet the market is punishing the buyer harder than almost anything else in the sector. Here is what the deal terms reveal about why.

European Lithium holders voted heavily for a takeover that would give their acquirer full control of a Greenland rare earth project, and shares of the buyer are sliding anyway. Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) stock is at $6.18, down 7% in afternoon trading, a decline that buries a major deal milestone under a wave of selling. That reaction opens a sharp split between a deal advancing on paper and a share price heading the other way.

Selling in Critical Metals stock runs deeper than the pullback across other U.S.-listed critical minerals names. USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) stock is trading at $9.74, down 5%, a lighter decline than the one hitting Critical Metals stock. At the same time, United States Antimony (NYSEAMERICAN:UAMY) stock is down 3% to $3.19, trailing both rare earth names in the depth of its drop.

Fund-level figures confirm a sector-wide retreat, with Critical Metals stock at the front of it. Notably, the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:REMX) is down 3%, a smaller slide than Critical Metals stock. Losses are far lighter across large caps, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) down 1% while rare earth names are falling harder.

European Lithium Vote Clears Path to Full Tanbreez Ownership Critical Metals announced on October 22 that European Lithium shareholders and optionholders voted heavily to approve the all-stock acquisition of their company. Completing the deal would give Critical Metals full ownership of the Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland, the centerpiece of its development pipeline. The transaction still needs approval from the Supreme Court of Western Australia, and the new Critical Metals shares issued to European Lithium holders are expected to begin trading on Nasdaq in early November.

Terms of the European Lithium deal locked in the share count a day before the vote announcement. On October 21, Critical Metals hit the cap on its exchange ratio. Its average share price over the measurement window was at or below the deal’s floor, expanding the batch of fresh stock headed for Nasdaq.

Critical Metals Falls Harder Than Its Sector Critical Metals stock is sliding the fastest. It’s falling faster than shares of USA Rare Earth and United States Antimony, and it’s trailing the VanEck fund too, so the selling reaches past a soft day for the sector. Whether the prospect of more Critical Metals shares reaching Nasdaq in early November is feeding that pressure is a question the deal disclosures leave unanswered.

USA Rare Earth is building a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain. Supporters point to its federal funding commitments, while bears cite a recent revenue miss and rising expenses, and United States Antimony mines and processes antimony, where a sole-source defense contract supports the bull case but sharply lower antimony prices weigh on its revenue.

On the bullish side, full Tanbreez ownership would simplify the Critical Metals story and strengthen its position in Western rare earth supply, while skeptics counter that the maximum exchange ratio hands European Lithium holders the most stock the terms allow, which would dilute current Critical Metals shareholders.

European Lithium Deal Heads to Court Critical Metals must now see if the Supreme Court of Western Australia approves the deal on schedule. Court approval stands between the shareholder vote and the expected early November debut of the new Critical Metals shares on Nasdaq.

Until the court rules and the new Critical Metals shares settle into trading, investors should keep their position sizes measured. The maximum exchange ratio means more stock reaches the market once the deal closes.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

While rare earth stocks slide against a rising market, one critical minerals producer is sprinting the opposite direction on the back of a sole-source military contract that most investors are only just discovering.

Antimony is trading on its own story as the critical minerals complex splits in two. United States Antimony (NYSEAMERICAN:UAMY) shares are up 11% to $3.18, breaking clearly from the rare earth names around it.

Meanwhile, USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) stock is down 3% to $10.22, moving opposite United States Antimony shares. Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) shares are down 4%, a slightly steeper decline than USA Rare Earth stock.

Even after the jump, United States Antimony stock is down 37% year to date (YTD), so the rally starts from a depressed base.

Defense Deliveries Set Antimony Apart
United States Antimony is the sole Western Hemisphere producer of military-specification antimony ingots under a long-term Defense Logistics Agency supply contract. The company reported increased Q3 2026 deliveries under that contract. That sole-source agreement is worth $245 million, with $57.3 million in cumulative orders awarded so far.

Those ingots exceed 99.5% purity, and United States Antimony processes the metal at facilities in Thompson Falls, Montana, and Madero, Mexico. Management built inventory to $21.6 million to support the contract deliveries.

United States Antimony’s recently started smelter expansion at Thompson Falls is ramping, and mining at Nolan Creek, Alaska, is tentatively planned to begin by year-end. Bolivia’s hydrometallurgical facility, whose first shipment is already on the water, is expected to run at 150 tons per month.

The margin math favors United States Antimony, which secures antimony at $4 to $6 per pound and sells at premium pricing under the contract. However, the company cut its full-year revenue guidance to $60 million to $75 million. Executives expect antimony to stay in the $10-per-pound range for the rest of the year.

Rare Earth Names Slip as the S&P 500 Climbs
Both USA Rare Earth and Critical Metals focus on rare earth elements. USA Rare Earth is building a neodymium-iron-boron magnet supply chain centered on by its Stillwater, Oklahoma, facility and backed by up to $1.6 billion in CHIPS Act funding. Critical Metals is a pre-revenue developer behind the Tanbreez rare earths project in Greenland and the Wolfsberg lithium project in Austria.

USA Rare Earth keeps expanding upstream. Deal activity includes a $2.8 billion agreement to acquire Serra Verde Group and a second U.S. magnet facility planned for Blacksburg, South Carolina. An amended Tanbreez agreement would lift Critical Metals’ ownership from 42% to 92.5%, pending Greenland government approval.

The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:REMX) is down 0.9%, a far milder slip than USA Rare Earth and Critical Metals shares. That fund held United States Antimony shares at 1.5% of net assets as of June 30.

For a broad-market check, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.8%. Meanwhile, USA Rare Earth and Critical Metals shares are falling against a rising market. United States Antimony is far outpacing the SPY ETF, pointing to a company-specific move.

Antimony Charts Its Own Course
United States Antimony still needs to show its deliveries to the Defense Logistics Agency keep rising. Four pending grant applications with the Departments of Energy and War, worth $275 million, could add funding. Spot pricing remains the swing factor for United States Antimony margins after a 52% year-over-year drop in average selling prices.

United States Antimony’s institutional ownership grew to 57% from 42%, and federal support for domestic critical mineral mining adds a boost.

Rising deliveries could help United States Antimony offset weaker spot prices, but sharp rallies in smaller critical minerals stocks can reverse quickly. Keeping UAMY share position sizes modest makes sense until the antimony delivery ramp resolves.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Although it could be tempting to compare MP Materials (MP -3.46%) and USA Rare Earth (USAR -4.96%) in a zero-sum competitive game, the reality is that they are complementary companies. Probably the greatest difference between the two lies in their risk profiles: MP Materials represents the lower-risk/lower-return option compared to USA Rare Earth's higher-risk/higher-potential-return proposition.

Risk and return for MP Materials and USA Rare Earth
The market clearly understands the differing risk profiles, because on current valuations, USA Rare Earth trades at a significant discount to MP Materials. That disparity becomes apparent when looking at their forward valuations based on expected earnings and free cash flow in 2029 and 2030. Those will be key years for both rare-earth companies because by then, MP Materials plans to have its new "10X" magnet-producing facility in Northlake, Texas, in operation, and USA Rare Earth plans to have its rare-earth mine in Round Top, Texas, commissioned and producing.

$10.54-$0.55 (-4.96%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

One thing is clear from looking at Wall Street's expectations and implied valuations: Either USA Rare Earth is the buy of the century or the market is highly skeptical of its ability to get near its ambitious targets of revenue of $2.6 billion, earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.2 billion, and free cash flow (FCF) of $900 million.

Company/Metric

2026

2029

2030

2031

2032

MP Materials P/E ratio

N/A

56.4 

35 

24.1 

17.4 

USA Rare Earth P/E ratio

N/A

N/A

29.3

15.8

4.3

MP Materials P/FCF ratio

N/A

N/A

N/A

23.5

13.6

USA Rare Earth P/FCF ratio

N/A

N/A

N/A

6

3.3

Data source: Visible Alpha.

MP Materials advantages over USA Rare Earth
The discrepancy reflects several advantages MP Materials has over USA Rare Earth right now. First, MP Materials' rare-earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, is already in operation, while USA Rare Earth plans to have Round Top commissioned in 2028.

Second, MP Materials is significantly ahead in securing foundational customers. In fact, on the last earnings call, CEO Jim Litinsky said its magnet-producing Independence facility in Fort Worth, Texas, was "fully sold out between GM and Apple; it's possible that we'll fit another customer or two in there." As for the new 10X facility MP Materials is building, it has a 10-year agreement with the Department of Defense that establishes price floors for its products and includes a commitment "to ensure that 100% of the magnets produced at the 10X Facility will be purchased by defense and commercial customers with shared upside."

In essence, Washington is backstopping sales of the facility's full production capacity. 

MP MP Materials$40.17-$1.44 (-3.46%)

NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

In contrast, USA Rare Earth has signed a distribution deal with Arnold Magnetic Technologies and is working on converting the production purchase orders and prototype purchase orders. The fact that the customers for these deals are unnamed and Stillwater is a newly producing facility (management expects to hit a run rate of 600 metric tonnes annually by the end of 2026) implies that the orders are relatively small.

All told, while both companies are pursuing a mine-to-magnet strategy, it's clear that MP Materials is significantly ahead and faces less operational risk than USA Rare Earth, which needs to demonstrate magnet production at scale, ramp up capacity, and commission Round Top. In a nutshell, that's why USA Rare Earth trades at significantly lower forward valuations.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why the two companies are complementary
The interesting thing about the two companies is that MP Materials is more focused on light rare-earth elements (LREEs) such as neodymium and praseodymium. USA Rare Earth focuses on heavy rare-earth elements (HREEs) such as dysprosium and terbium. HREEs are significantly more expensive than LREEs, lending weight to the idea that USA Rare Earth is arguably of greater strategic importance to U.S. domestic supply than MP Materials and has more upside potential if everything goes right.

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October 2025 was arguably the best month for U.S. rare-earth stocks. Indeed, both of the top two rare-earth miners in the U.S. -- MP Materials (MP +0.00%) and USA Rare Earth (USAR -0.55%) -- were on an absolute tear, with both stocks up over 45% from the start of the month to Oct. 14, 2025. The geopolitical climate looked favorable to rare-earth companies, China was tightening its grip on critical minerals, and the White House appared dead-set on building a domestic rare-earth supply chain.

What could go wrong, right?

Fast-forward to today, and rare-earth stocks have not delivered on the sky-high expectations investors have had for them. Both MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are down year over year as I write this, as is the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX +0.64%).

Although all three are in the red, USA Rare Earth has taken the biggest hit. In fact, an investment in USA Rare Earth last October would have been cut in half.

Image source: Getty Images.

A $10,000 investment in USA Rare Earth would be worth this much today On Oct. 6, 2025, the closing price for USA Rare Earth was about $26. Today, one year later, USA Rare Earth is trading for about $14 a share as I write this. Put differently, a $10,000 in USA Rare Earth stock would be worth about $5,300 today, a loss of roughly 47%.

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What happened? Well, USA Rare Earth was riding a wave of investor enthusiasm last October. The Department of Defense had recently invested $400 million in MP Materials, and China was tightening restrictions around rare-earth exports. True, the former bit helped its rival more than itself, but news of Washington's broad support of the rare-earth industry lifted both companies on Wall Street.

At the same time, USA Rare Earth had just appointed Barbara Humpton, former CEO of Siemens USA, as its new CEO last September. Humpton revealed that the company was in talks with the White House, which fueled speculation that USA Rare Earth would receive federal support next.

Things were looking good. Then, things started going south.

In late October, the U.S. and China reached a trade truce that paused China's newest rare-earth export restrictions. All of a sudden, much of the urgency that had shaped USA Rare Earth's bull case had lost its tension.

Meanwhile, investors were waking up to just how much USA Rare Earth would need to turn its mine-to-magnet ambitions into a thriving business. Indeed, this was especially clear in January 2026, when USA Rare Earth raised $1.5 billion by selling around 70 million new shares.

Is USA Rare Earth worth a large investment today? I wouldn't put a big investment into USA Rare Earth today. Mining is an expensive business, and even with federal support in its back pocket, USA Rare Earth has a long way to go before it will produce rare-earth magnets. In the meantime, plenty of factors could derail its ambitions or limit its growth, not the least of which is the enormous amount of capital required to build mines and magnet factories.

At this point, most investors would probably be better off with a rare-earth exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds shares of multiple companies rather than investing directly in USA Rare Earth.

The U.S. has a magnet problem. A rare-earth magnet problem.

Pretty much every electronic you use, from smartphones to computers, requires rare-earth magnets to function properly. Indeed, these tiny, powerful magnets are even more ubiquitous than one might think, with applications in electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, medical equipment, weapons, and industrial machinery.

At the same time, the U.S. does not have a strong domestic supply of rare-earth magnets. Most of its supply comes from foreign sources, with China dominating the global supply chain.

Image source: Getty Images.

This supply chain weakness is exactly what USA Rare Earth (USAR -1.47%) is trying to solve. In a nutshell, it wants to build a domestic mine-to-magnet business to help the U.S. wrest itself from dependence on foreign exports.

It's a compelling investment thesis. But could a $5,000 investment in USA Rare Earth today actually make you a millionaire?

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USA Rare Earth: The bull case USA Rare Earth owns the Round Top deposit in Texas, a mountain full of rare-earth metals. Round Top contains the heavy rare-earth materials needed to produce permanent magnets, including dysprosium and terbium, which help magnets stay strong at high temperatures. It also contains neodymium and praseodymium, two essential ingredients in permanent magnets.

Round Top isn't operational today (management is targeting late 2028), but USA Rare Earth hasn't let that stop it. Most recently, it acquired Serra Verde, which owns the Pela Ema mine in Brazil. Unlike Round Top, Serra Verda is operational; indeed, the company describes it as one of the only scaled producers outside Asia capable of producing the four magnetic rare-earth materials listed above: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

With Serra Verde now in the fold, USA Rare Earth's revenue is expected to explode. Analysts project revenue to jump from roughly $74 million this year to more than $700 million next year, then climb to nearly $1.6 billion the following year.

USAR Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts

USA Rare Earth has a market capitalization of roughly $3.4 billion today. For this stock to make you a millionaire, it would need to grow 200 times. That would grow it to about $670 billion, making it one of the largest -- if not the largest -- mining companies in the world.

For perspective, the largest mining company in the world today -- BHP Group (BHP +1.58%) -- is worth about $219 billion. In other words, USA Rare Earth would need to grow to more than three times the size of the world's largest mining company today to turn a $5,000 investment into $1 million. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's very, very unlikely.

So, no, I wouldn't expect a $5,000 investment in USA Rare Earth to make investors millionaires. Indeed, I would approach this growth stock cautiously, as the capital-intensive nature of mining will still make turning rapid revenue into profits very difficult.

Aggressive investors might want to speculate with a small position. But if you'd rather not pin your fortune to one company, a rare-earth exchange-traded fund (ETF) may be the better route.

Rare earth miners are tumbling together with no company-specific news to explain the drop, and the selloff is running nearly five times deeper than the broader market, raising the question of whether critical minerals are entering a prolonged storm or…

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Rare earth miners and processors are all falling together, and that shared drop points to pressure across the whole sector. USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) stock is declining 5% and recently traded at $13.08.

At the same time, MP Materials (NYSE:MP) shares are falling 5% to $46.18, similar to USA Rare Earth stock’s drop. In a less dramatic decline, Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) stock is down 3% to $7.13.

The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:REMX) is sliding 3% to $62.08, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is slipping 0.6% to $774.84. The rare earth fund’s decline runs far deeper than the overall market’s, so the pressure is concentrated in critical minerals.

Sector-Wide Selling Sweeps Critical Minerals USA Rare Earth hasn’t released company-specific news to account for the decline, and neither peer has announced anything, though MP Materials is falling further. That pattern points to selling across the critical minerals sector, with the group trading as a single block.

The REMX fund’s most recent reported holdings include MP Materials alongside a broad mix of rare earth, lithium, titanium, antimony, molybdenum and other strategic-materials producers across China, Australia, North America, Europe and Chile. Critical Metals and USA Rare Earth don’t appear among those holdings, so the fund’s slide reflects pressure well beyond these three companies, making it a useful gauge of whether the selloff deepens or fades.

Where the Three Names Diverge USA Rare Earth stands apart in scale and leadership. Thras Moraitis followed Barbara Humpton as chief executive on October 1, and Executive Chairman Mike Blitzer said Moraitis brings the experience and focus to lead the company through its next phases of development.

Moraitis named his priority as bringing the company’s rare earth businesses together, establishing clear accountability and executing reliably for customers, and the company now runs three business units: upstream (mining, processing and separation), midstream (metals, alloys and powders) and downstream (magnets and derivative products).

After its Serra Verde combination closed, USA Rare Earth holds a mine and processing facility in Brazil and the Round Top heavy rare earth project in Texas, plus processing and separation capability in Wheat Ridge, Colorado, metals and alloys operations in the United Kingdom and magnet production in the U.S.

MP Materials is further along, already producing and selling rare earth oxide and metal while building magnet capacity. Bulls point to that operating base; bears note that magnet start-up costs are weighing on profits.

Critical Metals is a pre-revenue developer whose Tanbreez project in Greenland remains years from production. The bulls could cite its offtake term sheets and a pending move to raise its project stake; the bears might point to the going concern doubt its auditors flagged.

What to Watch Next For USA Rare Earth, the bulls may argue it has assembled the pieces of a Western-aligned supply chain under a leader focused on integrating them. Meanwhile, the bears could counter that running mines, metals and magnets across three countries carries more execution risk than doing a single step well.

Market analysts could look for signs that the REMX fund finds support, which would ease pressure on all three names. For USA Rare Earth, the open question is whether the three-unit structure results into reliable delivery to customers. Traders should consider reducing their position sizes in these essential-mineral stocks as constantly changing catalysts play out in real time.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

OR Royalties (NYSE: OR - Get Free Report) and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR - Get Free Report) are both mid-cap materials companies, but which is the superior business? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their analyst recommendations, dividends, institutional ownership, earnings, profitability, valuation and risk. Analyst Ratings This is a breakdown

In announcing the recent trade agreement between the U.S. and China, the White House recognized that the two nations will pursue talks addressing "U.S. concerns regarding supply chain shortages related to rare-earth and other critical minerals, with the goal of ensuring shipment levels return to appropriate levels."

But investors should hardly interpret this as a sign that the U.S. will lose interest in shoring up its rare-earth supply anytime soon. To this point, USA Rare Earth (USAR +0.04%) remains an obvious investment opportunity, though motivated as I am to become a shareholder, I'm holding off until this one thing happens.

Image source: Getty Images.

Look for important news in the coming months USA Rare Earth's core asset is the Round Top deposit in Texas, which contains 15 of the 17 rare-earth elements that are in demand, including all heavy rare-earth elements. The company is making steady progress at lining up customers for when Round Top commences operations. During USA Rare Earth's second-quarter 2026 conference call, management acknowledged that it has "30 potential customers, many of the large multinationals on offtake for the nonmagnetic oxides and other products Round Top will produce."

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But there's one critical step needed before commencing commercial operations: completing the definitive feasibility study.

Developing mining projects requires massive amounts of capital. To ensure the economic viability of developing a particular location as an asset, companies will conduct definitive feasibility studies that provide financial projections to determine whether the project will be profitable.

Management expects a definitive feasibility study for the Round Top project by the end of 2026 and will publish the results in early 2027.

Ensure your excitement for Round Top with the definitive feasibility study, then load up on shares Recognizing the strong political enthusiasm for domestic rare-earth production, investors are right to pay close attention to USA Rare Earth stock. At this point, however, it's a little too speculative for my taste to pick up shares. Should the company demonstrate that the Round Top project can be a lucrative endeavor, though, I'll be more comfortable with starting a position in this rare-earth mining stock.

Scott Levine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Key Takeaways USA Rare Earth is ramping magnet production and building a $1.2B Blacksburg facility.Teck Resources lifted copper production 25% as LME copper prices rose 40% year over year.Teck Resources advances its Anglo American merger and projects to expand its copper pipeline. USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR - Free Report) and Teck Resources Limited (TECK - Free Report) are leading players in the Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry. Both companies are engaged in the extraction, processing and development of minerals that are essential to modern technologies and industrial applications. USAR and TECK are poised to benefit from the increasing demand for critical materials used in electrification, clean energy technologies and advanced manufacturing.

Both companies operate in capital-intensive mining industries that require significant investments in infrastructure, advanced technologies and project development, while navigating complex regulatory approvals and permitting processes. Rising demand for minerals and metals essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy and other clean-energy technologies is creating favorable long-term growth opportunities for both companies.

The Case for USARIn September 2026, USAR broke ground on a new rare earth metal and magnet manufacturing facility in Blacksburg, SC. The company is investing almost $1.2 billion to build the approximately 800,000-square-foot facility on a 124-acre site in Cherokee County. The project is expected to create around 490 high-skill manufacturing jobs, with commissioning targeted to begin in 2028. Once operational, the plant is expected to produce 6,400 metric tons per year (tpa) of sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets and 5,000 tpa of strip-cast rare earth metal and alloy.

In June 2026, USA Rare Earth commissioned its hydrometallurgical demonstration facility in Wheat Ridge, CO, marking a key step in building an integrated rare earth supply chain outside China. The facility will process material from multiple sources, including the Round Top facility, third-party feedstocks and recycled magnet swarf, while supporting feasibility studies and future commercial-scale operations.

Also, USAR continues to make steady progress at the Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma as it ramps up commercial production. The facility is designed to manufacture NdFeB magnets, which are critical components for defense, aerospace, automotive, industrial and other high-growth end markets. During the second quarter of 2026, the Stillwater facility began commercial production of NdFeB magnets, although the company has not yet started generating revenues from magnet sales as production continues to ramp up.

Throughout the second quarter of 2026, USAR continued to expand the Stillwater facility by advancing building improvements, installing additional manufacturing equipment and increasing inventories to support production ramp-up. The company also continued investing in construction-in-progress assets and equipment deposits as it prepares the facility for higher production volumes.

However, USAR continues to face profitability pressure as it remains in the investment and commercialization phase. In the first six months of 2026, it reported a net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth of $77.3 million, while its loss from operations widened to $83 million from $17.5 million in the year-ago period. Its operating expenses jumped to $81.5 million from $17.5 million in the same period, due to higher selling, general and administrative expenses, research and development costs, and amortization. Despite generating $11.5 million in revenues during the period, the company reported a negative gross margin of 12.8%.

The weak profitability is accompanied by substantial cash requirements. In the first six months of 2026, USAR used $75.3 million in cash for operating activities, up from $18.2 million reported in 2025. In the same period, investing activities consumed another $108.4 million due to an increase in capital expenditures related to the Stillwater Facility. The company will require further spending on Round Top, Stillwater, Blacksburg and the Less Common Metals-Europe facility, placing additional pressure on its cash resources.

The Case for TECKAs part of its long-term growth strategy, Teck Resources is increasing its focus on copper and other critical minerals that are essential for electrification and clean-energy technologies. The company is benefiting from a favorable copper market, with LME copper prices averaging $6.05 per pound in the second quarter of 2026, up 40% year over year. In the quarter, TECK’s copper production increased 25% year over year to 135,900 tons, while copper sales rose to 135,700 tons from 101,500 tons.

The company maintained its 2026 copper production guidance of 455,000-530,000 tons, supported by higher expected output from Quebrada Blanca, Highland Valley Copper and Antamina. The long-term outlook for copper remains favorable, driven by growing demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy and infrastructure investments, while supply remains constrained by declining ore grades, water constraints, rising input costs and limited new high-quality projects.

Teck Resources is also advancing its merger with Anglo American plc to form the Anglo Teck group, creating one of the world's largest copper-focused mining companies. It will have more than 70% exposure to copper and is set to be among the top five global copper producers. The combined company will consist of six world-class copper assets and premium iron ore and zinc operations with annual copper production of 1.2 million tons, projected to grow to 1.35 million tons by 2027. The deal is also expected to generate about $800 million in annual pre-tax synergies within four years of completion.

Teck Resources is further strengthening its copper growth pipeline by advancing several development projects toward sanction readiness. The company continues permitting activities, securing land access and refining business cases for its Zafranal and San Nicolás projects. Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension construction also progressed in the second quarter, with detailed engineering about 95% complete and procurement nearly complete. The project is expected to extend the mine's life from 2028 to 2046 and support average annual copper production of about 132,000 tons.

However, the company's zinc in concentrate production declined to 112 thousand tons in the second quarter of 2026 from 136.6 thousand tons a year earlier, reflecting lower grades at Red Dog in line with the mine plan. TECK maintained its 2026 zinc production guidance of 410-460 thousand tons, below 565 thousand tons produced in 2025, and expects lower grades through 2028 as the mine matures.

Operating costs at several assets increased year over year due to higher diesel, energy, maintenance and contractor expenses. While higher copper production and by-product credits helped lower copper net cash unit costs, continued inflation in fuel, freight and maintenance costs could pressure margins going forward.

How Does the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for USAR & TECK?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for USAR’s 2026 bottom line is pegged at a loss of 62 cents per share. Also, the company’s consensus estimate for the 2027 bottom line is pegged at a loss of 78 cents per share.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TECK’s 2026 bottom line is pegged at $4.13 per share. Also, the company’s consensus estimate for 2027 bottom line is pegged at $3.30 per share.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Price Performance and Valuation of USAR & TECKIn the past year, USAR’s shares have declined 11.2%, while TECK stock has surged 60.5%. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

USA Rare Earth is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 7.81X while Teck Resources’ forward earnings multiple sits at 3.08X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Final TakeUSAR is benefiting from the ramp-up of its commercial magnet production, along with investments and strategic initiatives aimed at building an integrated rare earth supply chain. The company is advancing its Blacksburg facility, Stillwater magnet operations and Wheat Ridge hydrometallurgical demonstration facility to expand its production capabilities. However, USAR remains in the early stages of commercialization and continues to incur losses and significant cash requirements as it invests in capacity expansion and other growth initiatives.

In contrast, Teck Resources is benefiting from strong copper production growth, higher copper prices and a growing portfolio of copper-focused assets. The planned merger with Anglo American will further increase its exposure to copper, while projects such as Highland Valley, Zafranal and San Nicolás provide additional growth opportunities. However, declining zinc production at Red Dog and higher operating costs remain key challenges.

Given these factors, TECK appears better positioned than USAR based on its stronger earnings profile, copper exposure and established operating base. While TECK carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), USA Rare Earth carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

China's grip on the rare-earth market has exposed a critical weakness in Western supply chains, and USA Rare Earth (USAR -4.77%) aims to turn that vulnerability into an opportunity.

The company is building a fully integrated "mine-to-magnet" business for rare-earth elements and permanent magnets outside China. By connecting mining, processing, alloy production, and magnet manufacturing, USA Rare Earth could become a key supplier of these materials crucial to defense and other technologies.

On Sept. 9, USA Rare Earth announced it was breaking ground on its $1.2 billion South Carolina facility, which will help it reach its long-term goal of producing 10,000 metric tons of magnets and 10,000 metric tons of strip-cast metal. With the new facility under construction, is it time to buy the rare-earth stock?

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The new facility will help meet long-term production goals USA Rare Earth is positioning itself as a key domestic source of critical minerals and neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets, which are crucial for modern electronics, motors, generators, and medical and industrial technologies.

Its new facility in Blacksburg, South Carolina, will play a key role. Costing $1.2 billion, the 800,000-square-foot plant will increase production capacity, adding 6,400 metric tons per annum (MTPA) of magnet capacity and 5,000 MTPA of strip-cast capacity. When combined with the expansion of its Stillwater, Oklahoma facility, USA Rare Earth is targeting 10,000 MTPA of each of these crucial materials by 2029.

The company is spending a lot of money to scale up USA Rare Earth's opportunity is vast, but getting there isn't cheap. With its South Carolina facility and its expanding Oklahoma facility, the company is spending heavily to quickly secure the crucial materials it needs.

On Sept. 3, USA Rare Earth completed its acquisition of Serra Verde Group for roughly $2.8 billion. This gives it ownership of the only scaled production of all four magnetic and other critical heavy rare-earth elements outside China.

Image source: Getty Images.

It has also acquired Texas Mineral Resources, giving USA Rare Earth 100% control over the rare-earth-rich Round Top Project in Texas. The company hopes to begin commercial production there around 2028.

USA Rare Earth has raised $1.6 billion through the CHIPS Act, in the form of grants and loans. This has helped it raise the much-needed funds to expand, but it is also dilutive to equity investors both through upfront share issuances and mandatory future equity-raising commitments.

Is USA Rare Earth stock right for you? USA Rare Earth is taking steps to ramp up production of critical minerals and permanent magnets to break the U.S.'s reliance on China for these key materials. The company is making progress in becoming a domestic supplier of these key materials, but it remains a high-risk stock as it scales its mining and manufacturing capabilities over the next couple of years.

USA Rare Earth Inc. (NASDAQ:USAR) shares are trading higher, likely moving in sympathy with rare earth peers following a new U.S.-Greenland security agreement, even though the company holds no assets in Greenland itself.

Key Takeaways USAR is partnering with Pasqal and Riven Systems to advance rare earth separation technology.The collaboration will use automated experiments to identify selective extractants.Technology could cut processing stages, equipment needs, energy use and environmental impact. USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR - Free Report) is strengthening its rare earth processing capabilities through a strategic partnership with neutral-atom quantum computing company Pasqal Holding SA (PSQL - Free Report) and Riven Systems, an AI-based solutions provider for industrial chemistry, to advance next-generation separation technology for the rare earth value chain. The partnership will use quantum machine learning and automated experimentation to identify more effective molecules for separating rare earth elements.

The collaboration is aimed at addressing a key challenge in the rare earth supply chain (outside Asia), which is separating mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) into individual oxides. The companies plan to use Riven’s self-driving minerals separation laboratory to conduct experiments and create data for machine learning models to identify extractants that selectively bind to rare earth elements. Pasqal will use its quantum computing technology to benchmark quantum machine learning models against traditional models and help optimize extractant selection.

The technology is expected to help USAR develop smaller, cost-effective and less energy-intensive processing facilities by reducing the number of separation stages, equipment requirements and raw material consumption. It could also lower the environmental impact and carbon footprint associated with rare earth processing.

The partnership is expected to focus on feedstocks including material from USAR’s planned Round Top mine in Texas, third-party MREC and recycled swarf from the magnet manufacturing process. The companies also aim to develop an end-to-end extractant discovery process, with promising molecules tested at Riven’s laboratory and validated at USAR’s R&D facility in Colorado. The collaboration supports USAR’s efforts to build a more integrated Western rare earth supply chain while improving the efficiency and economics of its processing operations.

Notable Partnerships of USAR’s PeersAmong its major peers, MP Materials Corp. (MP - Free Report) recently signed a long-term agreement to supply gadolinium to a new U.S. aerospace and defense customer, strengthening its customer base and expanding its heavy rare earth product portfolio. The company also formed a joint venture with the U.S. Department of War and Saudi Arabia’s mining company (Maaden) in November 2025 to build a rare-earth refinery in Saudi Arabia. MP Materials will use its technical expertise to process rare-earth materials for the US, Saudi Arabia and allied manufacturing and defense industries. MP Materials’ joint venture will strengthen global supply chains, expand its refining capacity and support US-Saudi economic ties.

In August 2025, USAR’s peer, Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU - Free Report) , signed an MOU with Vulcan Elements to supply rare earth oxides for US-based magnet production. Per the deal, Energy Fuels will provide NdPr and Dy oxides to Vulcan from its White Mesa Mill in Utah for quality verification and future long-term supply. Energy Fuels is producing high-purity, ex-China rare earth oxides at a commercial scale, supporting a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.

USAR’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of USAR have gained 31.3% in the year-to-date period compared with the industry’s growth of 20.2%.

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From a valuation standpoint, USAR is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.13X compared with the industry’s average of 1.43X. USA Rare Earth has a Value ScoreValue Score of F.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for USAR’s 2026 earnings has decreased over the past 60 days.

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PARIS, NEW YORK and WHEAT RIDGE, Colo., Sept. 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- USA Rare Earth (Nasdaq: USAR), a rare earth, critical minerals and advanced materials company, Pasqal (Nasdaq: PSQL), a global leader in neutral-atom quantum computing and Riven Systems, a specialist in AI for industrial chemistry, today announced a strategic partnership to develop next-generation separation technology for the rare earth value chain. Using quantum machine learning, the project aims to identify new separation molecules that bind more effectively to rare earths than existing alternatives, enabling smaller, lower-cost, less energy-intensive processing facilities.

The collaboration brings together U.S. and French expertise in two strategically important sectors: critical minerals and quantum computing. Together, the companies aim to explore technologies that could help support a more secure, efficient and competitive Western rare earth supply chain.

The partnership brings together Riven’s self-driving minerals separation laboratory and Pasqal’s quantum computing power with USA Rare Earth’s rare earth processing expertise. Under the planned project, Riven would conduct thousands of automated experiments and generate the training data needed to build machine learning models of extractant selectivity for rare earth elements. Pasqal’s Neutral Atom QPU would then benchmark quantum machine learning models against classical computing-based models (each trained on data from the self-driving lab) to support USA Rare Earth in optimizing extractant selection.

"The key challenge the rare earth industry outside Asia faces is to separate the Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) produced in upstream operations into individual, separated oxides. The Chinese dominate this capability, especially for vital heavy rare earths such as dysprosium, terbium and yttrium. Our goal is to accelerate the path to efficient, competitive and sustainable solutions by changing how the rare earth industry discovers the chemistry it runs on, replacing years of trial-and-error," remarked Alex Moyes, Senior Vice President of Upstream (USA), USA Rare Earth. "This strategic partnership will institute an innovative discovery pipeline where new extractant molecules are identified and tested virtually, powered by a quantum machine learning model trained on real chemical data from an autonomous lab. Rapid discovery of an extractant built and optimized for USA Rare Earth's flowsheets could improve our capital and operating efficiency by reducing stage count, equipment needs and raw material consumption, while lowering the carbon footprint and environmental impact of our facilities. Breakthroughs like these are what could help make a Western rare earth value chain possible and accelerate our journey to being competitive on the world stage."

Pasqal and Riven will tailor their work to USA Rare Earth’s feedstocks, expected to include the Round Top mine in Sierra Blanca, Texas, as well as third-party mixed rare earth carbonates (MREC) and recycled cuttings (known as swarf) from the magnet manufacturing process. Targeting these key feedstocks means the experimental work can potentially impact all aspects of USA Rare Earth’s materials processing work.

"This partnership brings together three companies working at the forefront of technologies that are increasingly important to economic growth, industrial competitiveness and national resilience," said Wasiq Bokhari, Chief Executive Officer of Pasqal. "Rare earth materials are essential and improving how they are processed has implications far beyond a single industry. By combining Pasqal's quantum computing capabilities with USA Rare Earth's materials expertise and Riven's advanced automation platform, we have an opportunity to accelerate innovation while demonstrating how French and American companies can work together to strengthen critical supply chains."

USA Rare Earth, Pasqal, and Riven believe this initial machine learning project could create opportunities for a deeper, extended collaboration. Over time, the companies envision a first-of-a-kind, end-to-end extractant discovery process: a quantum machine learning model identifies high-potential extractants, those extractants are tested in Riven’s self-driving lab, and top candidates are validated in USA Rare Earth’s R&D facility in Wheat Ridge, Colorado before being integrated in USA Rare Earth’s flowsheets.

"AI and autonomous labs are the next frontier in critical mineral processing," said Dr. Orion Archer Cohen, CTO and co-founder of Riven Systems. "We applaud USA Rare Earth’s proactive adoption of these technologies, which forge a path to significant improvements over legacy chemistry. This is exactly how the West can leverage its lead in advanced compute technologies to reindustrialize faster."

About USA Rare Earth, Inc.
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR) is building a fully integrated rare earth and permanent magnet value chain across the United States, Brazil and the United Kingdom. Through its ownership of Less Common Metals (LCM), one of the world’s leading producers of rare earth metals and alloys, its development of magnet manufacturing capacity in Stillwater, Oklahoma, the Pela Ema mine in Brazil and the Round Top deposit in Texas, USA Rare Earth operates across the entire value chain from mining to metal-making, alloy production and neodymium magnet manufacturing. USA Rare Earth is establishing a secure, Western-aligned supply of materials essential to the aerospace and defense, semiconductor, energy, data center, physical AI, mobility, healthcare and industrial sectors. For more information, visit www.usare.com.

About Pasqal
Pasqal (Nasdaq: PSQL) helps organizations tackle problems that are difficult or impossible to solve with conventional computing methods alone. Founded in 2019 on Nobel Prize–winning research, Pasqal builds and operates neutral-atom quantum computers, delivered with a full software stack, for industry, science, and governments. Pasqal’s production-ready systems are available both on-premises and through the cloud, enabling organizations to harness quantum computing without requiring in-house quantum expertise. A single hardware platform supports analog workloads today and is designed to evolve toward fault-tolerant quantum computing in the future. 

Headquartered in France with operations globally, Pasqal’s quantum computing systems are used by customers across energy, financial services and advanced materials to address complex challenges. Pasqal’s customers include Saudi Aramco, Crédit Agricole CIB, LG Electronics and supported by partnerships with NVIDIA and IBM (Pasqal is part of the IBM Quantum Network).

About Riven Systems
Riven Systems builds chemical intelligence for industrial independence, with the immediate goal of leveraging AI and automation to bring critical minerals processing back to the West. The company is headquartered in New York City, NY. Learn more at rivensystems.ai.

Contacts
For USA Rare Earth:
Investor Relations Contact
J.B. Lowe, CFA
USA Rare Earth, Inc.
[email protected]

Media Relations Contact
Collected Strategies
Dan Moore / Scott Bisang
[email protected]

For Pasqal:
Investors
[email protected]
Media
[email protected]

For Riven:
Investors
[email protected]
Press
[email protected]

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include those relating to the strategic partnership between USA Rare Earth, Pasqal and Riven as well as its mission, goals and planned methodology as well as the expected contribution of each party, the ability of quantum computing, AI and autonomous labs to be successfully applied to industrial applications, including to reduce the cost, energy use and complexity of rare earth processing; the anticipated implications, benefits and applications of any new separation molecules identified by the strategic partnership, the expected impact of any future extractant discovery process resulting from the strategic partnership on USA Rare Earth’s materials processing work and the rare earth value chain and other statements regarding USA Rare Earth’s and Pasqal’s expectations for future development, operations, strategies, transactions and financial performance. Such statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. Words such as “aim,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “can,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “growth,” “intend,” “may,” “might,” “plan,” “potential,” “project,” “propose,” “should,” “target,” “vision,” “will,” “would” and similar expressions may identify forward-looking statements, but the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking.

Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and potentially inaccurate assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from USA Rare Earth’s and Pasqal’s expectations, including without limitation: risks that the strategic partnership between USA Rare Earth, Pasqal and RIVEN may not yield viable molecule candidates on a timely basis or at all; risks that USA Rare Earth and Pasqal may not realize any of the anticipated benefits associated with the strategic partnership even if viable molecule candidates are identified; the risk that the application of quantum computing, AI and autonomous labs to industrial applications, such as advancing separation chemistry in rare earth processing, is novel and relatively untested; risks that USA Rare Earth may not realize the anticipated benefits of its combination with Serra Verde or its proposed and prior acquisitions, including expected synergies, financial performance, estimated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and, in the case of Serra Verde, integration of operations, on the anticipated timeline or at all; potential delays in the optimization and commissioning program and the Phase II expansion at the Pela Ema facility; political, economic, regulatory, tax, currency and other risks associated with Serra Verde’s operations in Brazil and Switzerland; physical climate risks related to the Pela Ema mine; the assumption of the Offtake Agreement and substantial indebtedness under Serra Verde’s Retained Finance Agreement, in each case which contains restrictive covenants and other requirements that could adversely affect the combined company’s financial flexibility and operations; risks that the Offtake Agreement is terminated or ceases to be in full force and effect or that the counterparty to the Offtake Agreement is insufficiently capitalized, including as a result of a failure to finalize definitive debt financing arrangements within the timeframes contemplated by the Offtake Agreement; risks that the proposed transaction with Carester SAS may not be consummated on its anticipated timeline or at all; the ability of USA Rare Earth’s Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility to generate revenue and the ability of USA Rare Earth’s planned Blacksburg facility to commence commercial operations on the timing and with the production capacity anticipated or at all; USA Rare Earth’s limited operating history; USA Rare Earth’s ability to commercially extract minerals from the Round Top deposit on its anticipated timeline or at all; differences between planned and actual recovery and yield rates; risks that USA Rare Earth may experience delays, unforeseen expenses, increased capital costs, and other complications while developing its projects; USA Rare Earth’s ability to raise necessary capital on acceptable terms or at all; potential dilution to existing stockholders and adverse effect on USA Rare Earth’s stock price if it issues additional common stock or equity-linked securities; the volatility of USA Rare Earth’s stock price; the availability of rare earth oxide, metal feedstock and other materials, utilities (including power and water) and equipment in quantities and prices that allow USA Rare Earth to develop and commercially operate its Stillwater facility and other facilities; USA Rare Earth’s ability to meet individual customer specifications and produce a consistently high quality product; potential supply chain, logistics or product delivery disruptions; any delays in obtaining or renewing permits and licenses; any changes in royalty rates or the imposition of new royalties; risks associated with community relations; fluctuations in demand for and prices of neo magnets, rare earth elements and USA Rare Earth’s other products, including without limitation as a result of dumping, predatory pricing and other tactics by USA Rare Earth’s competitors or state actors or the overall competitive environment; USA Rare Earth’s ability to achieve positive cash flow or profitability or the ability to access cash flow within its corporate structure due to restrictions contained in its financing agreements; USA Rare Earth’s ability to convert current commercial discussions and/or memorandums of understanding with customers for the sale of its neo magnets and other products into definitive orders; USA Rare Earth’s dependence, in part, on the growth of existing and emerging uses for neo magnets; the risk that additional manufacturing, refining and mining competitors could result in a reduction in revenue; geopolitical developments or disruptions, such as changes in the political environment, export/import or environmental policy of the People’s Republic of China, the United States or other countries in which USA Rare Earth operates or sells products or otherwise; USA Rare Earth’s designation on an export control list by China which has had and is expected to continue to have an adverse impact on its ability to source key raw materials and supplies from China; war, terrorism, natural disasters or public health emergencies; USA Rare Earth’s ability to retain or recruit key personnel; environmental, health and safety regulations; the receipt of funding from the U.S. Department of Commerce is subject to the achievement of milestones which may not be achieved on the expected timeline or at all; USA Rare Earth’s ability to comply with requirements for federal, state and local government incentives and financing; the risk from Pasqal pursuing an emerging technology, facing significant technical challenges and the potential that it may not achieve commercialization or market acceptance; Pasqal’s reliance on strategic partners and other third parties; risks related to Pasqal’s indebtedness; and Pasqal’s ability to maintain, protect and defend its intellectual property rights

Additional risks and detailed information regarding factors that may cause actual results to differ materially has been and will be included in USA Rare Earth’s and Pasqal’s filings with the SEC, including USA Rare Earth’s most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and any subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and subsequent filings, as well as Pasqal’s recently filed Registration Statement on Form F-1. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this press release (or such other date as is specified in such statements), and USA Rare Earth and Pasqal undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events or developments.

Key Takeaways USA Rare Earth began commercial production of sintered NdFeB permanent magnets in Oklahoma.SG&A surged to $53.8M as legal, consulting, headcount and other growth costs increased.USA Rare Earth posted a $77.3M net loss as product costs and R&D expenses climbed in 2026. USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR - Free Report) is still in the early phases of commercialization and continues to incur losses as it scales its operations. Though the company started generating revenues following the acquisition of Less Common Metals, higher operating expenses related to expansion, acquisitions and workforce growth are pressuring its profitability.

USAR’s cost of product revenues was $13 million in the first half of 2026, exceeding total revenues of $11.5 million. In the same period, its selling, general and administrative expenses surged to $53.8 million from $13.3 million in the year-ago period owing to increasing legal and consulting costs, higher headcount, recruiting fees and other growth-related expenses.

USAR’s research and development expenses climbed to $25 million compared with $4.3 million reported in the year-ago period due to higher employee-related and development costs. It posted a net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth of $77.3 million, or 37 cents per share, in the first half of 2026.

However, USAR recently reached a significant milestone by commissioning Phase 1a of its commercial magnet production line at its Stillwater, OK, facility. The company has begun commercial production of sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets.

While USA Rare Earth is making steady progress in expanding its operations, continued losses and cost pressures remain challenges. The company’s ability to balance growth investments with improving revenues and cost discipline is expected to benefit it in the quarters ahead.

USAR’s Peer PerformanceAmong its major peers, NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) is experiencing rising cost pressures. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Niocorp reported a significant year-over-year increase in operating expenses, primarily driven by spending related to the advancement of the Elk Creek Project. If these elevated costs persist, they could weigh on NioCorp’s margins and profitability.

Its another peer, Rio Tinto Group (RIO - Free Report) , is gaining from rising copper production, driven by strong operational performance across its assets. However, weather-related disruptions in the first quarter of 2026 affected Rio Tinto’s bauxite volumes. In the first half of 2026, Rio Tinto's productivity program delivered $0.5 billion in unit cost improvements through higher production volumes, better labor productivity, tighter contractor management and disciplined discretionary spending.

USAR’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of USAR have gained 13.2% in the past year compared with the industry’s growth of 36.2%.

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From a valuation standpoint, USAR is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.2X compared with the industry’s average of 1.43X. USA Rare Earth has a Value Score of F.
 

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for USAR’s 2026 earnings has decreased over the past 60 days.

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USA Rare Earth falls below key moving averages as losses, cash burn and production risks weigh on its outlook despite major expansion efforts.

Diplomatic warming between Washington and Beijing is quietly dismantling the trade thesis that sent domestic rare earth stocks surging this year, and the sector is now caught between a groundbreaking billion-dollar factory and a potential summit that could make it…

Domestic rare earth stocks are sliding Thursday midday as fresh diplomatic warming between Washington and Beijing chips away at the scarcity premium powering the trade. USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) stock is down 4% to $16.36, and MP Materials (NYSE:MP) shares are down 5% to $51.85. Both names sit near the front of the U.S. critical-minerals theme and tend to move hard when the geopolitical setup shifts.

Meanwhile, Critical Metals Corp (NASDAQ:CRML) stock is falling 2% to $6.90. The selling is sector-wide rather than company-specific, and it lines up with reporting that a U.S.-China leaders’ summit could land in Washington later this month. No fresh company disclosure landed from any of the three names today.

For sector context, the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:REMX) is down 5%, a steeper drop than either of its large-cap U.S. constituents. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is off 0.57%, so today’s action reads as a targeted repricing of the theme rather than a broad risk-off session. Sector selling this concentrated typically points at a macro trigger rather than fundamentals.

Thaw Hopes Undercut the Scarcity Trade President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to meet in Washington later this month in an effort to stabilize the relationship and extend a truce agreed last year. Beijing hasn’t confirmed the meeting, and reporting on the truce describes it as fragile and capable of breaking before the two leaders sit down. Even a partial arrangement over export controls would soften the urgency behind the domestic supply-chain build-out.

Domestic developers price on scarcity created by Chinese control of the supply chain. Any sign that the two capitals are moving toward a durable arrangement removes part of the reason to pay a premium for a Western substitute. That turns summit progress into a headwind for these shares, opposite the usual read on diplomatic good news.

USA Rare Earth’s Milestone Meets a Tough Session USA Rare Earth broke ground Wednesday on a rare earth metal and permanent magnet manufacturing facility in Blacksburg, South Carolina, an approximately $1.2 billion investment that complements the company’s existing magnet operation in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Commissioning at the plant is targeted to begin in 2028, which places first output years into the future, according to USA Rare Earth. The build fits the company’s stated aim of an integrated domestic value chain from mining through metal-making to magnets.

CEO Barbara Humpton stated the moment matters because it moves the company’s vision from plans on paper to infrastructure taking shape. The groundbreaking converts a plan into a large spending commitment at a company whose own risk disclosures cite China export control designation and access to capital as material concerns. USA Rare Earth stock is still up 38% year to date (YTD), so a same-day fade doesn’t erase the gain earned earlier in the year.

MP Materials operates the Mountain Pass mine and an Independence magnet facility in Fort Worth, and delivered Q2 2026 revenue of $108.5 million, up 89% year over year (YoY), with NdPr oxide and metal sales climbing sharply. That growth trajectory offers little cover when the whole theme is repricing on a diplomatic headline. MP Materials stock is down 17% over the past year and now sits well below the $75.38 average sell-side target.

Critical Metals is a pre-revenue developer with a Tanbreez rare earths project in Greenland and a Wolfsberg lithium project in Austria, and it carries a going-concern flag from its auditors. Critical Metals stock tracks the theme closely, which is why it’s slipping even without company-specific news. The story rests on positioning as a European critical-minerals independence play, which is exactly the trade a U.S.-China thaw softens.

What to Watch The next catalyst is confirmation from Beijing that the Washington meeting is on and any framework that extends the current truce. A confirmed summit could keep pressure on scarcity-premium names, and a public breakdown could reintroduce the premium quickly. Either outcome is possible within the next few weeks.

The REMX ETF carries meaningful positions in both Chinese producers and Western developers, including a 6% weight in MP Materials alongside major mainland names. That mix explains why the ETF is falling harder than either individual U.S. name today. The fund’s dual exposure makes it the most direct sector proxy on days like this one.

Investors weighing their exposure across USAR, MP and CRML may want to keep an eye on whether the REMX ETF holds its recent range, since the fund is a cleaner read on the theme than any single ticker. Cautious position sizing of one’s exposure fits an unusually headline-driven trade.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

USA Rare Earth (USAR +0.28%) stock recorded strong double-digit gains in August. The company's share price climbed 19.2%, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, in a month that played host to a 2.6% increase for the S&P 500's level and a 3.9% gain for the Nasdaq Composite.

Along with the bullish backdrop for the broader market, the company also published its second-quarter results and announced the completion of an upsized $1.55 billion capitalization of the special purpose vehicle (SPV) backed by the U.S. government to support its acquisition of Brazilian rare-earth mining specialist Serra Verde. While the company's Q2 report didn't do anything to push the stock higher, the SPV announcement did boost the stock -- and investors have gotten more good news in September.

Image source: Getty Images.

USA Rare Earth's Q2 report wasn't exciting USA Rare Earth published its Q2 results on Aug. 10, and the report didn't arrive with much for investors to get excited about. The company reported a non-GAAP (adjusted) loss of $0.15 per share on sales of $5.82 million in the period. The performance fell short of the average Wall Street targets, which called for an adjusted loss of $0.13 on sales of roughly $6.5 million.

USA Rare Earth is still in a relatively early stage of ramping its business, so the sales and earnings misses in Q2 didn't look particularly significant. On the other hand, the company didn't deliver the kinds of scaling updates that investors were looking for -- and the stock lost ground following the earnings release. The good news was that investors didn't have to wait long for positive developments.

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The Serra Verde deal looks to be transformative On Aug. 24, USA Rare Earth published a press release announcing the finalization of its SPV deal with the U.S. Department of War to support its acquisition of Serra Verde. Through the arrangement, the Department of War agreed to provide a direct $750 million investment in the SPV, the facilitation of a $500 million debt facility from a tier-1 institutional bank, and a five-year purchasing contract worth at least $300 million. In short, the deal helped secure both financial support and a rare earth mineral purchasing contract from the U.S. government contingent on the finalization of the Serra Verde acquisition.

USA Rare Earth then published a press release on Sept. 4 announcing that it had completed its roughly $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde. When USA Rare Earth announced the acquisition in April, it said that Serra Verde was expected to achieve annualized earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by the end of 2027 and that the combined corporate entity was expected to generate roughly $1.8 billion in EBITDA by 2030. The completion of the deal has transformed USA Rare Earth's financial profile, and it positions the company to rapidly scale in the critical minerals space.

Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Key Takeaways USA Rare Earth began commercial NdFeB magnet production at its Stillwater facility in Q2 2026.USAR expanded equipment, inventories and construction assets to support production ramp-up.USA Rare Earth ended Q2 2026 with about $1.53 billion in cash to fund manufacturing expansion. USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR - Free Report) continues to make steady progress at the Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma as it ramps up commercial production. The facility is designed to manufacture Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) magnets, which are critical components for defense, aerospace, automotive, industrial and other high-growth end markets. During the second quarter of 2026, the Stillwater facility began commercial production of NdFeB magnets, although the company has not yet started generating revenues from magnet sales as production continues to ramp up.

Throughout the second quarter of 2026, USAR continued to expand the Stillwater facility by advancing building improvements, installing additional manufacturing equipment and increasing inventories to support production ramp-up. The company also continued investing in construction-in-progress assets and equipment deposits as it prepares the facility for higher production volumes.

To support its progress, USA Rare Earth maintained a strong balance sheet, ending the second quarter of 2026 with approximately $1.53 billion in cash and cash equivalents. The company continues to deploy capital toward the Stillwater facility, equipment purchases and the development of its rare earth manufacturing platform, including the planned Blacksburg refined metals facility in South Carolina.

In November 2025, USAR strengthened its vertical integration through the acquisition of Less Common Metals, a rare earth metals and alloys manufacturer in the United Kingdom. The acquisition continues to support the company’s mine-to-magnet strategy by expanding its capabilities in rare earth metals, alloys and strip-cast production for the Stillwater facility.

Snapshot of USA Rare Earth’s PeersAmong its major peers, Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ - Free Report) continues to make steady progress at the Ambler mining district. Although Trilogy is not yet in production, it is advancing the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects through Ambler Metals LLC, its joint venture with South32 Limited. In August 2026, Trilogy executed definitive agreements for a roughly $35.6 million strategic equity investment by the U.S. Department of War to support exploration and development of the projects. The Arctic Project is also progressing through federal and state permitting, with a targeted Record of Decision in September 2028.

USAR’s other peer, NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) , is working to move its Elk Creek Project in Nebraska closer to production. In August 2026, NioCorp completed an updated feasibility study that envisions a 40-year mine producing eight critical-mineral products, including niobium, scandium, titanium and several rare earth products. NioCorp's study estimates a pre-tax net present value of $4.1 billion, while ongoing mine-portal construction is establishing the future access point to the underground operation.

USAR’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of USAR have gained 48% in the year-to-date period compared with the industry’s growth of 29.5%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, USAR is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.67X compared with the industry’s average of 1.43X. USA Rare Earth carries a Value Score of F.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for USAR’s 2026 earnings has declined over the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Chinese rare earth suppliers are quietly refusing U.S. shipments, and one American producer just closed a deal that could position it to fill that gap at the worst possible moment for Beijing's leverage.

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Shares of USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) rose but then retreated Friday morning after Reuters reported that some Chinese suppliers have refused to ship rare earth materials to U.S. customers, sharpening the case for a domestic non-China supply chain. The broad tape is quiet, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) down 0.1% to $772.31, so this is a narrow, single-theme rally-and-drop with the broader tape quiet.

USA Rare Earth stock jumped 4% to $18.35, extending a year that had it up 49% year to date (YTD) through Thursday’s close. However, USAR stock then fell back to $17.70 soon after 10:00 a.m. ET, making it flat on the session at that time. The move lands the same week USA Rare Earth completed its combination with Serra Verde Group on September 3, giving it scaled heavy rare earth production at the exact moment the shipment story broke.

Two peers are drawing attention on the same theme. MP Materials (NYSE:MP) operates Mountain Pass in California and is expanding U.S. processing and magnet output through its Fort Worth Independence facility. Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) is developing the Tanbreez project in Greenland, which isn’t yet in commercial production.

Shipment Freeze Sparks a Supply-Security Bid Reuters reported that some Chinese suppliers have declined to ship rare earth materials to U.S. customers since early August despite holding export licenses, worried about repercussions from Beijing or the risk that the materials could ultimately reach sanctioned end users. Adding to the diplomatic backdrop, Reuters said Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Washington on September 24, with rare earth supplies expected on the agenda.

The China exposure is enormous. China accounts for 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing, so any disruption at the shipping desk quickly becomes a bottleneck for U.S. industrial and defense customers. On the policy side, the Trump administration last month finalized a $1.55 billion funding package to develop domestic rare earth supply chains, including equity investment, debt support, and long-term purchase commitments.

What Sets USA Rare Earth Apart Timing is the differentiator today. USA Rare Earth described Serra Verde as the only scaled producer of all four magnetic and other critical heavy rare earth elements outside Asia, operating in Goiás, Brazil. That directly plugs into the gap the Chinese refusals expose, and it does so with production already running rather than a project still in development.

Leadership at USA Rare Earth is turning over on the same clock. The company said Thras Moraitis, previously Chief Executive Officer of Serra Verde, will succeed Barbara Humpton as Chief Executive Officer on October 1, and Moraitis has been appointed President and added to the board, according to USA Rare Earth. That gives the combined company an operator running the newly scaled Brazilian asset from the top of the org chart.

MP Materials continues to lean on Mountain Pass and its Fort Worth magnet facility, with a Department of War partnership and long-term supply agreements in the background. Critical Metals remains a developer story tied to Greenland approvals, offtake term sheets, and a 2028 exploitation target, so its response to any China headline is more sentiment-driven than operational.

Scorecard and Session Context USA Rare Earth stock’s intraday move sits on top of a 49% YTD run through Thursday’s close, so the tape was already leaning positive into the news. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust’s 0.1% dip suggests the move in USAR stock is idiosyncratic, a theme trade tied to policy and supply headlines with the broader tape flat.

Durability is the signal to weigh. Nothing in either company’s cost structure or contracted revenue changed today, and a shipment freeze reported three weeks ahead of a diplomatic meeting can function as a bargaining position as much as a supply event. That framing keeps expectations honest even as the tape rewards the theme.

What to Watch Next The Xi Jinping visit to Washington on September 24 is the next scheduled catalyst that can move the whole complex either way, according to Reuters. Any language on rare earth licensing coming out of that meeting can land on USA Rare Earth, MP Materials, and Critical Metals in real time.

Investors can watch for whether Beijing formalizes or walks back the shipment posture around that meeting, and whether MP Materials and Critical Metals continue to trade in sympathy with USA Rare Earth on each headline. Position sizing on their exposure matters here, because a single diplomatic outcome can compress the theme quickly (we put the sizing rules for exactly this kind of headline-driven trade in a free speculation playbook). Traders should keep their allocation to any single rare earth name modest until the September meeting resolves.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Shares of US rare earth companies rose in premarket trading Friday after a Reuters report said some Chinese suppliers have declined to ship rare earth materials to US customers despite receiving export licenses.

The developments come weeks before Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Washington, putting critical mineral supply chains back in focus.

USA Rare Earth USAR gained 4.8%, MP Materials shares rose 3.9%, and Critical Metals climbed 5.9% in premarket trading.

According to the Reuters report, some Chinese suppliers have refused shipments to US customers since early August, citing concerns about potential repercussions from Beijing and the possibility that materials could ultimately reach sanctioned users.

The issue adds to ongoing concerns about access to rare earths and other critical materials.

US officials have repeatedly urged China to follow through on commitments made in Busan and Beijing to support the flow of rare earth export licenses.

A source familiar with US planning said in the report that the issue has become part of preparations for Xi's planned Sept. 24 visit to Washington.

The supply situation remains tight for several rare earths and critical materials with applications in areas including aerospace, defense and chipmaking.

While exports of many rare earths and related magnets have recovered since China introduced restrictions in April 2025, prices for some materials remain near record highs.

China maintains dominant position in supply chainChina remains the dominant force in the global rare earth industry, accounting for about 70% of mining and 90% of processing.

Export restrictions and licensing delays have continued to affect US buyers.

Some US companies have reportedly waited more than six months for mineral licenses, while several firms have recently received multiple approvals after lengthy delays.

Yttrium exports to the US have increased this year but remain around half of 2024 levels.

China shipped 27 tons of yttrium to the US in July after two months without exports, marking the second-highest monthly shipment since January 2025.

Chinese restrictions have also affected other markets.

Chinese suppliers have largely refrained from shipping rare earth materials to Japanese companies, while exports of terbium, gallium and yttrium to Japan declined sharply in the first eight months of the year.

Reva Goujon, a geopolitical strategist at Rhodium Group, told Reuters that China has used rare earth export controls as a tool to constrain the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security.

She also expects Beijing could loosen some controls around the summit to ease US concerns over the implementation of previous agreements.

China's foreign ministry said the country remained committed to maintaining global critical mineral supply chains.

The supply concerns are strengthening the focus on US and Western rare earth producers seeking to develop alternatives to China's dominant position.

USA Rare Earth is developing a domestic supply chain that includes its Round Top project in Texas.

The company also completed its acquisition of Serra Verde Group on Thursday. Serra Verde is described as "the only scaled producer of four magnetic and other critical heavy rare earth elements outside Asia": neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.

MP Materials operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California and stopped selling rare earth concentrate to China in July 2025.

The company is also expanding domestic processing and magnet manufacturing, including at its Independence facility in Texas.

Critical Metals is developing the Tanbreez project in Greenland as a potential Western source of rare earths, although the project has not yet entered commercial production.

The US government has also increased support for domestic supply chains.

Last month, the Trump administration finalized a $1.55 billion funding package that includes equity investment, debt support and long-term purchase commitments aimed at expanding domestic rare earth production and reducing reliance on China.

With rare earth supplies expected to feature in the upcoming Xi-Trump meeting, developments in export licensing and shipments could remain an important factor for the sector.

USA Rare Earth offers high-upside exposure to critical rare earths, with national security and defense demand as a key driver. USAR's Round Top mine is set to supply essential elements like Nd, Pr, Dy, and gallium, supporting vertical integration and domestic supply chains. Financially, USAR holds $1.53B in cash and manageable liabilities, but is pre-revenue, burning cash, and faces execution and dilution risks.

United States Antimony surged 8% this morning with no press release, no earnings, and no same-day filing to explain it, while the broader critical minerals sector quietly slipped lower. Something moved this stock, and the answer matters for anyone sizing…

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The critical minerals corner is splitting this morning between a company-specific bid in antimony and a rare earth basket that’s drifting lower. That’s the tell in what looks like an isolated single-name bounce.

The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:REMX) is down 0.5% to $75.82, so the sector wrapper is slightly softer while a single antimony name runs. United States Antimony (NYSE:UAMY) stock is up 8% to $5.04, a sharp move for a small critical-minerals producer that had gone nowhere this year. Meanwhile, USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) stock is up 3% to $17.72, adding to what has already been a stronger year for the magnet-focused developer.

Insider Buying Doesn’t Match the Timeline The verified insider purchases at United States Antimony predate this session. Chairman and CEO Gary Evans acquired 20,000 shares at $4.92 on August 28, and director Jon Marinelli acquired 12,500 shares at $7.45 on June 15. Both were disclosed on Form 4 filings, and neither is a same-day catalyst.

No same-day filing or company announcement from United States Antimony explains today’s bid. What the market shows is concentrated buying in one antimony name while the broader rare earths and strategic metals basket is lower, which reads as a mechanical bounce in a laggard rather than a fresh news trigger.

Four Names, Four Supply Chains United States Antimony holds a $245 million sole-source contract with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency and supplies military-specification antimony ingots exceeding 99.5% purity from its Thompson Falls, Montana smelter and its Madero, Mexico facility. That’s a narrow, defense-anchored business with a single dominant customer.

USA Rare Earth is building a rare earth and permanent-magnet chain anchored by magnet manufacturing in Stillwater, Oklahoma and the Round Top deposit in Texas. MP Materials (NYSE:MP) operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, and Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) is a pre-revenue developer with the Tanbreez deposit in Greenland and the Wolfsberg lithium project in Austria. Antimony and rare earths sit on different supply chains serving different buyers, which is why one name can move alone here.

Scorecard: Today Narrows a Wide Gap Through Tuesday’s close, United States Antimony stock was down 7% year to date (YTD), while USA Rare Earth stock was up 45% over the same stretch. Today’s move narrows that spread rather than extending either trend.

USA Rare Earth stock has ridden capital raises and government funding tailwinds through the year. United States Antimony stock has been the laggard, weighed down by weak antimony pricing and a lowered outlook. A 7% bounce doesn’t reset either story on its own.

What to Watch Next Traders can watch for whether United States Antimony stock holds above the $5 line into the close. Volume confirmation would matter as much as the price level, since a bid without a filing behind it tends to be thin.

Investors sizing their exposure to the critical minerals theme should consider their positions carefully. These are volatile small and mid-caps with wide daily ranges, and a session move that isn’t tied to a same-day catalyst can fade as quickly as it appears.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

USA Rare Earth's (USAR -0.95%) goal is to become a leader in critical minerals and a leading production partner for rare-earth elements, oxides, metals, and magnets. The company went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in 2025, and it's been raising capital by selling its stock. Notably, the mining specialist has sold a significant equity stake to the U.S. government -- with the initial deal working out to a 10% ownership position and options to exercise warrants that could bring the government's ownership position as high as 16%.

Thanks to the company's fundraising moves, USA Rare Earth closed out the second quarter with a cash position of roughly $1.53 billion. Meanwhile, the company generated just $5.8 million in revenue in the quarter. With its current market capitalization at roughly $4.4 billion, even though the business is generating very little in sales, how should investors value the company?

Image source: Getty Images.

USA Rare Earth is a speculative bet with real catalysts Rare-earth elements and the broader category of critical minerals are essential for a wide range of defense and commercial technologies, and the U.S.'s ability to source these crucial building blocks represents a potentially foundational supply chain fault line with huge economic and national security implications.

China currently dominates the global market for the extraction and processing of rare-earth elements and critical minerals, and the U.S. and its allies are heavily reliant on its exports. Meanwhile, relations between the U.S. and China have generally become more adversarial, and China has moved to restrict access to minerals as a key point of leverage against its geopolitical rivals.

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In response to sourcing dynamics surrounding critical minerals, the U.S. is taking steps and moving quickly to increase its ability to reduce its reliance on China for important metals and elements. So while USA Rare Earth is currently generating little revenue relative to its valuation, there are good reasons to think that the business will scale rapidly.

USA Rare Earth is on track for a transformative acquisition In April, USA Rare Earth announced that it had entered into an agreement to acquire Brazilian rare-earth specialist Serra Verde for roughly $2.8 billion. The deal will see USA Rare Earth pay $300 million in cash and issue roughly 126.5 million new shares of common stock to Serra Verde -- a deal that will be hugely dilutive for shareholders but one that also looks poised to have a beneficial, transformative impact.

To facilitate the deal, the U.S. Department of Defense created a $1.55 billion special-purpose vehicle that includes $750 million in direct investment, $300 million in rare-earth element purchases, and $500 million in credit. With the acquisition's completion, USA Rare Earth projects that Serra Verde alone is on track to reach an annualized run rate for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) between $550 million and $650 million by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, it expects that the combined company will generate roughly $1.8 billion in EBITDA in 2030. If USA Rare Earth hits that target, shares could be significantly undervalued at current prices.

The market doesn't know what to think about USA Rare Earth (USAR -6.54%). Its 52-week price chart has a Jack-o'-lantern smile, with peaks in the $40s and troughs in the $10s. Wide price swings aren't uncommon for a growth stock, but USAR gives the unmistakable impression that Wall Street simply can't make up its mind.

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Surely, some of that confusion is owed to the mismatch between USAR's business and valuation, which at times has been truly absurd. Last October, for instance, the metal company had a market cap north of $5 billion while generating essentially zero revenue.

Starting in 2027, however, the bull case for USAR is going to get stronger -- strong enough, I think, to make it rally back to its former highs. Here's why.

A ban on Chinese rare-earth magnets and alloys will send USAR higher USAR is in a critical position: It owns a particularly heavy rare-earth deposit in Texas. The metals found there are used to make rare-earth magnets, whose tech applications span aviation, defense, clean energy, and other industries.

The U.S. has long been uncomfortably dependent on China for rare-earth magnets. The security of that dependence was always wobbly, but it reached a critical point in the recent tit-for-tat trade war between China and the U.S. That means the U.S. government has been extremely aggressive in establishing its own rare-earth supply chain, from policies that support miners to direct investments in companies themselves.

Image source: Getty Images.

That brings us here. Starting on Jan. 1, 2027, rare-earth magnets sourced from China will be barred from use in American military systems. Defense contractors will need to ensure that everything from the mining and refining of rare earth to the production of magnets occurs outside of China. Waivers -- that is, special permission from the government -- are also becoming harder to obtain, which means defense companies will have greater incentive to work with U.S. suppliers.

That will put USAR in an unusually favorable position. Not only does it own one of the country's largest and most diverse rare-earth deposits in the U.S. -- Round Top in Texas -- but it is also building two magnet factories in Oklahoma and South Carolina. Together, those assets will give USAR something few domestic miners have: a largely U.S.-based magnet supply chain.

An important caveat Round Top is significantly rich in the "core four" rare earths used in defense: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. And USAR is developing innovative extraction technology tailored to Round Top to make its mining there less expensive and more efficient.

The only catch: It is not an operating mine, and it won't become one until at least 2028. So it's unlikely that USAR will be supplying rare-earth magnets to defense companies next year. But that doesn't mean it won't take advantage of the changed environment to ink agreements with defense clients for future sales.

Indeed, I predict that USAR will enter agreements with defense clients before 2027, with more to come next year. The U.S. cannot meet the strict requirements of this new rule without the help of USAR, and defense clients will likely be eager to lock in future supply before that capacity comes online.

I wouldn't wait until those agreements are inked before buying USAR. If you can tolerate the ups and downs of a growth stock, I think it's worth owning now before Wall Street finally makes up its mind.