Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $23.25, moving -1.32% from the previous trading session. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.41%. At the same time, the Dow lost 0.07%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.11%.

The company's stock has dropped by 5.76% in the past month, falling short of the Finance sector's loss of 1.68% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.46%.

The upcoming earnings release of Upstart Holdings, Inc. will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings report is expected on November 3, 2026. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $0.6, reflecting a 15.38% increase from the same quarter last year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $364.63 million, indicating a 31.58% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.

UPST's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $2.2 per share and revenue of $1.42 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +26.44% and +36%, respectively.

Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Upstart Holdings, Inc. should also be noted by investors. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.

Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant within the past month. As of now, Upstart Holdings, Inc. holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

In the context of valuation, Upstart Holdings, Inc. is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 10.71. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 10.82, so one might conclude that Upstart Holdings, Inc. is trading at a discount comparatively.

Investors should also note that UPST has a PEG ratio of 0.27 right now. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. Financial - Miscellaneous Services stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 0.86 based on yesterday's closing prices.

The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 161, positioning it in the bottom 35% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Don't forget to use Zacks.com to keep track of all these stock-moving metrics, and others, in the upcoming trading sessions.

In the latest close session, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST - Free Report) was down 1.45% at $23.75. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.06%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.38%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.44%.

Coming into today, shares of the company had lost 5.82% in the past month. In that same time, the Finance sector lost 2.69%, while the S&P 500 gained 2.36%.

The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Upstart Holdings, Inc. in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on November 3, 2026. In that report, analysts expect Upstart Holdings, Inc. to post earnings of $0.6 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 15.38%. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $364.63 million, indicating a 31.58% upward movement from the same quarter last year.

In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $2.2 per share and a revenue of $1.42 billion, indicating changes of +26.44% and +36%, respectively, from the former year.

Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for Upstart Holdings, Inc. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.

Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection remained stagnant. At present, Upstart Holdings, Inc. boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

In terms of valuation, Upstart Holdings, Inc. is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 10.95. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 10.93, which means Upstart Holdings, Inc. is trading at a premium to the group.

It's also important to note that UPST currently trades at a PEG ratio of 0.28. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry currently had an average PEG ratio of 1.03 as of yesterday's close.

The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 166, which puts it in the bottom 33% of all 250+ industries.

The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Be sure to use Zacks.com to monitor all these stock-influencing metrics, and more, throughout the forthcoming trading sessions.

LAKEWOOD, Colo. & BURLINGAME, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Credit Union of Denver Partners with Upstart to Expand Access to Personal Lending.

BURLINGAME, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST), the leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, will host a live video webcast to discuss its third quarter 2026 financial results on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, at 5:00 a.m. PT / 8:00 a.m. ET.

Upstart’s earnings release and related materials will be available on Upstart’s investor relations website at ir.upstart.com at approximately 4:00 a.m. PT / 7:00 a.m ET that morning. The live video webcast and a replay will be available on the investor relations website.

Shareholder Q&A

In addition to questions asked by analysts during the call, Upstart invites shareholders to submit questions for consideration via X (@Upstart) prior to 4:30 a.m. PT / 7:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 3.

About Upstart

Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) is the leading AI lending marketplace, connecting millions of consumers to more than 100 banks and credit unions that leverage Upstart’s AI models and cloud applications to deliver superior credit products. With Upstart AI, lenders can approve more borrowers at lower rates while delivering the exceptional digital-first experience customers demand. More than 90% of loans are fully automated, with no human intervention by Upstart. Founded in 2012, Upstart’s platform includes personal loans, automotive loans, home equity lines of credit, and Upstart’s new Cash Line product, a revolving line of credit. Upstart is based in Burlingame, California.

More News From Upstart Holdings, Inc.

BURLINGAME, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Upstart Publishes September 2026 Originations and Latest UMI.

It's been a lousy year for shareholders of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered credit bureau Upstart (UPST -0.61%). After teasing a bounce back early last year, the stock's now down more than 70% from last July's peak and has recently reached a new 52-week low.

On the one hand, the stock looks scary. On the other hand, it's tempting. What should investors do?

Image source: Getty Images.

Unfortunately, this is one of a handful of high-profile AI stocks that attract much speculation, both bullish and bearish. If you can't afford to suffer a sizable setback, your best move is to steer clear of the stock from either side of the table.

If you can stomach the risk and understand why other investors might appreciate the company's potential, though, know this: Its second-quarter revenue was up 42% year over year, and full-year top-line guidance of $1.4 billion is 40% above 2025's reported revenue of $1.0 billion. It's a sign that all of Upstart's different profit centers -- originations, credit checks, and platform fees -- are gaining momentum.

So why the persistent weakness in the stock since the middle of last year, and for that matter, since 2021, shortly after its initial public offering?

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Timing has much to do with it. Upstart went public at a time when investors were willing to pay a premium to participate in splashy IPOs. As time marched on, however, that willingness to maintain those premium valuations withered. Investors still aren't entirely sure exactly what UPST is arguably worth, and they're erring on the side of caution. And, maybe that's the right move.

The company's plainly profitable, though, and increasingly so. That's more than half the battle for a start-up. From here, it just needs to continue improving on the results it's already proven it can produce.

Analysts are on board, too, by the way. Their consensus price target of $39.24 is 70% above the ticker's present price. It just needs the right nudge to get the bullish ball rolling.

James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- #creditratingagency--KBRA assigns preliminary ratings to five classes of notes issued by Upstart Securitization Trust 2026-4 (“UPST 2026-4”), a $400.0 million consumer loan ABS securitization collateralized by unsecured consumer loans and auto secured personal loans. UPST 2026-4 represents the 52nd ABS securitization collateralized by loans originated through the online platform operated by Upstart Network, Inc. (“Upstart” or the “Company”), a 100% owned subsidiary of the publicly traded.

Lending is a tricky business. Interest income from payments may look stellar for years, but if just a small portion of these loan recipients stops paying, profits can be wiped away. A peculiar business in the lending "supply chain" is Upstart Holdings (UPST -3.37%).

The pandemic-era stock market darling uses artificial intelligence (AI) to price personal and auto loans before selling them to third parties. It is the middleman that tries to run with an asset-light balance sheet compared to banks, mitigating payback risks.

But what happens if the lending markets freeze during a downturn? The answer could get quite scary. Here's why.

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Pricing loans for third parties Upstart is a technology-forward firm that has tried to build and hone AI models for pricing consumer loans. However, instead of acting as a bank itself, a bank will contract with Upstart to price its consumer loans, which Upstart will then try to sell to third parties to hold. As a middleman, Upstart will earn fee revenue for its services.

This seemed like a revolutionary idea that could potentially disrupt the entire loan pricing supply chain, such as the FICO score. Upstart's fee revenue was going vertical as it helped originate more and more loans. However, after the pandemic disruptions ended, Upstart's business went in the wrong direction, where banks realized its AI models were not "magic" and pricing risk much more intelligently.

The real concern was the freezing of Upstart's loan-buying partners, which forced Upstart to begin piling loans onto its balance sheet and take on lending risk. Originations fell, and Upstart was deeply unprofitable for years. To fix these issues, Upstart has sought committed capital partners, secured more loans, such as automotive loans, and trimmed its own costs to operate more efficiently. Over the last 12 months, it has now begun to generate a profit again.

Image source: Getty Images.

Is Upstart stock a buy? During the last lending downturn in 2022 and 2023, Upstart faced major risks as fee revenue dried up and it couldn't offload loans to third parties. In a future downturn, the business looks much better prepared to weather any storm that shows up.

Right now, Upstart shares are in a 94% drawdown, as investors remain sour on the business's prospects after the past few years. The company is only slightly profitable today and has never proven it can generate steady profits for shareholders. However, if you believe the profit recovery will continue, Upstart may do better over the market cycle because of the committed financing deals it has secured.

Key Takeaways Upstart expands its Commonwealth Credit Union partnership to include HELOCs and indirect auto lending.Commonwealth aims to serve more borrowing needs, diversify lending and deepen prime-borrower relationships.Secured originations reached $589 million in Q2 2026, up 218% year over year and 45% sequentially. Upstart (UPST - Free Report) has expanded its partnership with Commonwealth Credit Union to include home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and indirect auto lending. The Kentucky-headquartered credit union serves more than 140,000 members, giving Upstart another opportunity to extend its AI-powered lending marketplace across secured credit products.

The expansion builds on a relationship that began in 2022 with personal lending. Commonwealth noted that the move will help it serve members across more borrowing needs, diversify its consumer lending portfolio and deepen relationships with prime borrowers.

The timing is notable because Upstart’s secured business is already scaling quickly. In the second quarter of 2026, secured originations reached $589 million, rising 218% year over year and 45% sequentially. Auto originations grew about fourfold year over year, while home originations roughly doubled.

Upstart’s broader business also showed stronger momentum in the second quarter of 2026. Total originations were $4.2 billion, up 50% year over year, while revenues increased 42% to $365 million. The company reported $16.5 million in net income and $76.9 million in adjusted EBITDA.

ConclusionFor Upstart, the Commonwealth expansion supports its push beyond unsecured personal loans by deepening an existing credit-union relationship with additional secured products. With more than 100 banks and credit unions already using UPST’s marketplace, broader adoption of HELOC and auto lending across partners could help diversify Upstart’s originations mix and underpin continued growth in its secured-lending segment.

Over the past six months, shares of this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company have declined 7.5% against the industry's 5.7% growth.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Stocks to ConsiderSome better-ranked stocks from the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services sector are Bread Financial (BFH - Free Report) and Axos Financial (AX - Free Report) , each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BFH’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) has moved 10 cents northward to $12.22 over the past week.

The consensus estimate for AX’s fiscal 2027 EPS has moved up 5 cents to $9.64 over the past two months.

FRANKFORT, Ky. & BURLINGAME, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Commonwealth Credit Union Expands Partnership with Upstart into HELOC and Indirect Auto Lending.

, /PRNewswire/ -- Kuehn Law, PLLC, a shareholder litigation law firm, is investigating whether certain officers and directors of Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) breached their fiduciary duties to shareholders. 

According to a federal securities lawsuit, Upstart Holdings misrepresented or failed to disclose that: (1) the latest generation of its AI model, Model 22, frequently overreacted to negative macroeconomic signals in performing its risk-separation processes; (2) accordingly, Model 22's overall accuracy and propensity to increase loan approval rates were overstated; and (3) Model 22's overly conservative assessment of credit and macroeconomic conditions was having a significant negative impact on Upstart's revenue results, rendering the Company's previously issued FY 2025 revenue guidance unreliable and/or unrealistic.

If you currently own UPST and purchased prior to May 14, 2025 please contact Sophia Anne Silayan by email at [email protected] or call (833) 672-0814.  Kuehn Law pays all case costs and does not charge its investor clients. Shareholders should contact the firm immediately as there may be limited time to enforce your rights. 

Why Your Participation Matters:

As a shareholder your voice matters, and by getting involved, you contribute to the integrity and fairness of the financial markets. Your investment. Your voice. Your future.™ 

For additional information, please visit Shareholder Derivative Litigation - Kuehn Law.

Attorney advertising. Prior results do not guarantee similar outcomes.

Contacts:
Kuehn Law, PLLC
Justin Kuehn, Esq.
53 Hill Street, Suite 605 
Southampton, NY 11968
[email protected] 
(833) 672-0814

SOURCE Kuehn Law, PLLC

In the latest trading session, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST - Free Report) closed at $25.30, marking a -3.08% move from the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.45%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.63%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.78%.

The company's stock has dropped by 12.27% in the past month, falling short of the Finance sector's loss of 2.1% and the S&P 500's loss of 1.99%.

Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Upstart Holdings, Inc. in its upcoming release. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $0.6, signifying a 15.38% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $364.63 million, up 31.58% from the prior-year quarter.

Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $2.2 per share and revenue of $1.42 billion. These totals would mark changes of +26.44% and +36%, respectively, from last year.

Investors should also take note of any recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Upstart Holdings, Inc. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook.

Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed an unchanged state. As of now, Upstart Holdings, Inc. holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell).

In the context of valuation, Upstart Holdings, Inc. is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 11.86. This represents a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 11.74.

We can additionally observe that UPST currently boasts a PEG ratio of 0.3. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. As the market closed yesterday, the Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry was having an average PEG ratio of 1.08.

The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 159, which puts it in the bottom 36% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Remember to apply Zacks.com to follow these and more stock-moving metrics during the upcoming trading sessions.

Upstart (UPST +1.95%), the AI lending platform, has been a publicly traded company for nearly six years, and it's taken investors on a wild ride.

After going public at the end of 2020, the stock skyrocketed during the heady bull market, and the business posted triple-digit revenue growth and strong profits thanks to low interest rates and stimulus payments during the pandemic.

However, Upstart's momentum unwound in 2022 as interest rates rose, and the stock crashed, losing more than 95% of its value at one point.

Today, after years of bouncing up and down, the stock continues to trade at around $25 per share and has a market cap of just $2.5 billion.

While the business is in much better shape than it was a few years ago, as it's both growing rapidly and profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, investors seem to have moved on, and that could be a huge opportunity.

Image source: Getty Images.

What's the misunderstanding Speaking to The Motley Fool, Upstart CEO Paul Gu explained that Upstart had gone through three or four cycles of misunderstanding with investors as the stock has reacted to macro issues like rising interest rates or liquidity shortages over the years.

Gu acknowledged that the company could have done a better job of being clear with the market of what was under the company's control and what metrics it should be judged on. He characterized the gap between investor perception and the reality of the business as "quite severe," adding, "I don't think you can find hardly any companies growing at that rate (that we are) that are profitable that trade at multiples anywhere in our neighborhood."

Indeed, Upstart trades at a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 2, which doesn’t seem to reflect its growth potential. If it had a software-as-a-service business model, it would likely have a P/S ratio of at least 10.

Upstart is also a much more resilient business than it was a few years ago. After experiencing a funding and liquidity crisis in late 2022 as interest rates jumped, Upstart now has committed capital partners like Castlelake and Fortress that guarantee funding for the loans it originates on its platform.

It's also in the process of securing a bank charter, which will make it easier to launch new products, enter new states, and generally streamline the business, helping it both cut costs and increase revenues.

Where Upstart stands todayThrough the first half of 2026, Upstart has delivered strong growth, with revenue up 35% to $625 million, and it earned a $0.10 per share GAAP profit. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) was $117.4 million.

The company's core personal loans business is highly profitable, but it's using that capital to fund investments in new businesses like home and auto loans, both of which are growing rapidly and represent massive addressable markets.

The company continues to target a compound annual growth rate of 35% from 2025 to 2028, and expects a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2028. That would give it revenue of about $2.6 billion in 2028 and adjusted EBITDA of $650 million.

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Upstart is a unique company. Gu said it doesn't consider competition to be a significant factor and is more focused on winning over customers and partners by demonstrating that it has the best lending product, meaning it's the best at analyzing and predicting credit risk.

Given that credit is a huge market and the advantages of its AI technology, Upstart has significant long-term growth potential, and it's starting to pull some of those levers, including launching home and auto loans and filing for the Upstart Bank charter.

If Upstart can continue to deliver profitable growth in the 35% range, the stock will eventually respond. If it gets some help from the macro environment and interest rates start to fall, it wouldn't be surprising to see the stock skyrocket from here. A 10x gain is definitely a possibility.

Upstart Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) had a busy week that included commentary at a major investor conference, a fresh analyst initiation and an insider stock purchase from its CEO.

Upstart Holdings shares are trending higher. What’s pushing UPST stock higher? Goldman Sachs Conference CommentaryAt the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference on Tuesday, CEO Paul Gu said the company’s business is increasingly shaped by a sharper focus on core personal loans, even as a weaker consumer backdrop and higher operating costs weigh on near-term results. Gu also addressed Upstart’s bank charter plan, calling it “the largest discrete single project” the company has undertaken in 2026, adding that the investment currently functions as a cost center with no benefit this year, but is expected to pay off once the bank launches in early 2027. Shares fell 3.6% to $27.04 that day, near the lower end of their 52-week range.

Loop Capital Initiates CoverageOn Wednesday, Loop Capital initiated coverage on Upstart with a Hold rating and a $34 price target.

CEO Stock PurchaseOn Thursday, Upstart CEO Paul Gu acquired 50,000 shares of the company’s stock at an average price of $25.55 per share, a total value of approximately $1.28 million.

Read Next

Upstart Shares Trend HigherUPST Price Action: At the time of publication, Upstart shares are trading 2.07% higher at $25.62, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Presents at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026 Transcript

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 6.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Upstart due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Upstart Holdings, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Upstart Q2 Revenues Climb as Profitability ImprovesKey Highlights•    Revenues: $364.7 million in second-quarter 2026, up 42% year over year.
•    EPS: 16 cents, up 220% year over year from 5 cents in the prior-year quarter.
•    Revenues from fees: $348 million, up 45% year over year, with platform/referral fees of $284.1 million, servicing/other fees of $54.8 million and loan sales fees of $9.1 million.
•    GAAP net income: $16.5 million, up 195% year over year from $5.6 million in the prior-year quarter. Net income margin was 5% versus 2% a year earlier.
•    Contribution profit: $193.1 million, up 37% year over year; contribution margin 55% compared to 58% in the prior-year quarter.
•    Adjusted EBITDA: $76.9 million, up 45% year over year; adjusted EBITDA margin of 21% in second-quarter 2026.
•    Originations: $4.2 billion, up 50% year over year; 558,014 loans originated, up 50% year over year.

Scale, Mix & Execution Drive Q2 ResultsTop-line growth was driven by higher marketplace originations, stronger fee revenues and continued expansion beyond core unsecured lending. Total originations rose to $4.2 billion, while fee-based revenues reached $348 million, as platform/referral fees, servicing/other fees and newly separated loan sales fees all contributed to the second quarter.

Profitability improved despite higher operating costs. GAAP net income increased to $16.54 million, adjusted EBITDA reached $76.9 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 21%. Contribution profit reached an all-time high of $193.1 million, though contribution margin declined to 55% from 58% a year ago as product mix continued to include faster-growing secured products with lower current margins.

Unsecured Lending Remains the Core EngineUnsecured Lending, which includes personal loans, small-dollar loans and Cash Line, remained the largest contributor in the second quarter. Fee revenue rose 38% year over year to $326.3 million, while originations increased 38% year over year to $3.64 billion. Loan count reached 535,191 in the reported quarter.

Contribution profit in Unsecured Lending was $200.8 million compared with $147.3 million in prior-year quarter. Contribution margin was 62%, flat year over year and up six percentage points sequentially, supported by a larger mix of higher-margin core personal loans, lower customer acquisition costs as a percentage of originations and an expected seasonal pickup in demand.

Secured Products Continue to ScaleSecured products continued to grow rapidly, with fee revenue rising 465% year over year to $22 million. Secured originations reached $589 million, including $426 million from auto and $163 million from home products. Auto originations increased 264% year over year, while home originations rose 139%.

Margins in secured products remained negative but improved materially. Contribution margin was negative 35% compared with negative 176% in the prior-year quarter and negative 96% in the first quarter of 2026. Management attributed the improvement to better take rates, operational efficiencies, automation, funnel optimization and lower HELOC origination costs, which fell 15% sequentially.

Expenses Rise as Operating Leverage EmergesTotal operating expenses were $350.1 million, up 39% year over year and 11% sequentially. Management expects fixed expenses to grow at a low-single-digit sequential pace in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

Funding & Balance Sheet TrendsUpstart ended the quarter with $456 million in cash and cash equivalents and $526.3 million in restricted cash. Loans at fair value totaled $1.06 billion, while beneficial interest assets were $545.9 million.

The balance sheet continued to reflect a capital-light marketplace model. Loans held on Upstart’s balance sheet accounted for just 5.9% of total outstanding loans, the lowest level in nearly two years.

Management Commentary & OutlookManagement maintained full-year 2026 guidance for total revenues of approximately $1.4 billion, fee revenues of about $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $294 million, implying a 21% margin.

Management highlighted progress in reaccelerating core personal loans, improving the profitability of Home and Auto, maintaining capital efficiency and driving a rebound in overall profitability. The company also received OCC conditional approval for its national bank charter in July 2026, with additional regulatory approvals and operational work; management’s targeted launch is in early 2027.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -20.69% due to these changes.

VGM ScoresAt this time, Upstart has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Upstart has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry PlayerUpstart is part of the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry. Over the past month, Moody's (MCO - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 1.2%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2026 more than a month ago.

Moody's reported revenues of $2.19 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +15.1%. EPS of $4.68 for the same period compares with $3.56 a year ago.

Moody's is expected to post earnings of $4.26 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Moody's. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The analysis is provided exclusively for informational purposes and should not be considered professional investment advice. Before investing, please conduct personal in-depth research and utmost due diligence, as there are many risks associated with the trade, including capital loss.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

BURLINGAME, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Upstart Co-founder and CEO to Participate in Fireside Chat at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference 2026.

Andrea Blankmeyer, the chief financial officer of Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST +4.99%), sold 10,175 shares in a non-discretionary transaction on August 17 and August 19, according to an SEC Form 4 filing.

Transaction summaryMetricValueTransaction value$298,636Shares sold10,175Post-transaction shares (directly held)152,208Post-transaction value$4.66 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($29.35); post-transaction value based on the August 19 market close ($30.60).

Key questionsWhat was the primary driver for this share disposition?
Blankmeyer's sale of 10,175 shares was a non-discretionary transaction required to cover tax withholding obligations associated with the settlement of restricted stock units. This automated process does not reflect the insider's discretionary outlook on the company's valuation.How does this impact the insider's total equity exposure?
The CFO maintains a direct position of 152,208 shares following the sale, representing 0.2% of the company's total shares outstanding. She also continues to hold derivative securities in the form of restricted stock units.What is the current performance context for the stock?
Shares were priced at $29.11 as of the August 18 market close, and the company has recorded a -50% one-year total return as of the August 19 transaction date.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-08-18)$29.11Market Capitalization$2.8 billionRevenue (TTM)$1.2 billionNet Income (TTM)$60.3 millionCompany SnapshotUpstart operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform offering unsecured personal loans, small-dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, auto secured personal loans, and home equity lines of credit across the United States.The company generates revenue through its AI-powered lending platform by originating and facilitating loans across three primary segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other, leveraging proprietary machine learning models to assess creditworthiness and manage credit risk.Upstart's primary customers include consumers seeking credit products and financial institutions that utilize the company's platform to originate and manage loans, targeting a broad market of borrowers across personal and automotive lending categories.Upstart Holdings operates as a leading cloud-based AI lending platform with a market capitalization of $2.8 billion and TTM revenue of $1.2 billion, demonstrating significant scale in the fintech lending sector. The company's competitive advantage derives from its proprietary artificial intelligence technology, which enables more accurate credit risk assessment and streamlined loan origination processes compared to traditional lending methodologies. Headquartered in San Mateo, California, Upstart has established itself as a critical infrastructure provider for both direct consumer lending and institutional lending partners seeking to modernize their credit assessment capabilities.

What this transaction means for investorsBlankmeyer's sale is routine tax withholding on vested RSUs, and 10,175 shares barely touches the 152,208 she still holds directly. Nothing about the timing points to any read on the stock, especially given it landed right as Upstart posted one of its stronger quarters in years.

More importantly for long-term investors, Blankmeyer explained on the earnings call why Upstart didn't raise its full-year guidance despite beating expectations. Revenue came in at $365 million for the second quarter, up 42% year over year, and net income hit $16.5 million, up sharply from $5.6 million a year earlier as contribution profit reached an all-time high of $193 million. But Blankmeyer pointed to the Upstart Macro Index climbing to 1.5%, near the top of the range that framed the original 2026 outlook, as the reason management held guidance steady rather than raising it. CEO Paul Gu framed the quarter simply, saying "we came into this quarter with a clear plan, and we executed against it." Upstart is down steeply this past year, facing much of the same pressures plaguing fintechs and even some software names more broadly, but with expectations reset, a turnaround could certainly be in play if recent momentum holds or better yet, improves.

Jonathan Ponciano has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Sanjay Datta, the president of capital & enterprise at Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST +4.99%), sold 18,945 shares of common stock on August 19 and August 20, according to a recent SEC Form 4 filing.

Transaction summaryMetricValueTransaction value$566,000Shares sold18,945Post-transaction shares (directly held)292,578Post-transaction value$8.4 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($29.87); post-transaction value based on the August 20 market close ($28.86).

Key questionsWhat is the significance of this transaction regarding the insider's sentiment?
The disposal was non-discretionary and facilitated through a sell-to-cover arrangement for tax obligations, which typically indicates routine portfolio management rather than a discretionary change in outlook.How has the stock performed leading up to this disposal?
Shares were priced at $28.86 as of the August 20 market close, reflecting a roughly 55% decline over the 12-month period ending on the transaction date.What remains of the executive's total equity exposure?
Datta continues to hold 292,578 shares directly and also holds derivative securities in the form of restricted stock units that represent a contingent right to receive additional common stock upon vesting.What were the price levels for the share executions?
The shares were sold in multiple transactions at weighted average prices ranging from $27.98 to $31.50 per share, resulting in a total realization of approximately $566,000.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-08-20)$28.86Market Capitalization$2.8 billionRevenue (TTM)$1.2 billionNet Income (TTM)$60.3 millionCompany SnapshotUpstart operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform that originates and facilitates unsecured personal loans, small-dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, auto secured personal loans, and home equity lines of credit across the United States.The company generates revenue through its AI-powered lending platform by connecting borrowers with institutional lenders, capturing origination fees and ongoing servicing revenue across its Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other segments.Upstart's primary customers include consumers seeking credit products and institutional lenders seeking to optimize credit risk assessment and loan origination through advanced artificial intelligence technology.Upstart Holdings represents a significant player in the fintech lending space with a $2.8 billion market capitalization and $1.2 billion in TTM revenue. The company leverages proprietary AI technology to differentiate its lending platform from traditional credit assessment methodologies, enabling institutional lenders to make more efficient credit decisions. Despite recent market volatility reflected in a 54.82% one-year decline, Upstart maintains profitability with $60.3 million in TTM net income, positioning itself as a technology-driven alternative to conventional lending infrastructure.

What this transaction means for investorsDatta's sale splits across two days under the same non-discretionary sell-to-cover mechanics as the rest of Upstart's recent filings, and 18,945 shares is a small piece of the 292,578 he still holds directly. That's not really the question worth spending time on here.

The more useful question is whether Upstart is worth buying after the year it's had. Shares are down roughly 55% over the past 12 months and sit about two-thirds below their 52-week high near $85, even after a solid bounce this summer. As president of capital and enterprise, Datta's own team just locked in a new multi-year forward-flow agreement with Castlelake for up to $4 billion in loan purchases, a bigger lever on growth than his tax bill this week. The business backed that up with revenue up 42% to $365 million last quarter and a return to GAAP profitability at $16.5 million in net income. Analysts still see room to run, with a consensus price target above $40, but whether the recent rebound holds depends on whether growth continues once the macro headwinds management has flagged actually show up in the numbers.

Jonathan Ponciano has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Fintech names are rebounding at midday Wednesday. SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI | SOFI Price Prediction) stock is up 6% to $18.66, Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) stock is up 8% to $31.58, and Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM) stock is up 7% to $78.55. The move follows a sharp retreat in long-end Treasury yields.

The Treasury Department stated it would increase buybacks of long-dated government debt “by at least double” for securities from the 10-year to 30-year sector. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.65%, and the 30-year yield declined 8 basis points to 5.2% after hitting its highest level since 2007 earlier this week.

Lower long-end yields tend to help consumer lenders and high-multiple growth names. That backdrop is the most plausible driver of Wednesday’s bid across fintech. No company-specific catalyst has emerged for the SoFi Technologies move today, so this reads as a sector rebound tied to the rate move rather than fresh company news.

The Gap Between SoFi’s Business and Its Stock SoFi Technologies stock is up 6% at midday. The shares are still down 33% year to date through Tuesday’s close. One session doesn’t close that gap.

The business tells a very different story. In the second quarter, SoFi Technologies posted revenue of $1.2 billion, a quarterly record, alongside adjusted net income of $160 million, up 65% year over year, for a net profit margin of 13%.

Management projects SoFi Technologies’ adjusted earnings per share rising at an annualized pace of 40% at the midpoint from 2025 to 2028. With no physical bank branches, the firm keeps overhead low and can cross-sell additional products to existing customers as banking relationships deepen. At a forward P/E ratio of 30x, SoFi Technologies shares aren’t cheap, but the growth math supports a premium multiple if the plan holds.

The context still matters on the profitability story. The fourth quarter of 2023 was the first period in which SoFi Technologies reported positive earnings under generally accepted accounting principles, so the current profit trajectory is relatively young. That is a reasonable argument for measured position sizing, even after a record quarter.

Upstart and Affirm Trade Higher, but the YTD Picture Splits Upstart Holdings stock is rising 8% to $31.58, the largest single-day gain in the group. Even after Wednesday’s rally, Upstart Holdings shares remain down 33% year to date through Tuesday’s close. That 2026 drawdown looks a lot like the decline at SoFi Technologies.

Meanwhile, Affirm Holdings stock is up 7% to $78.55. Across 2026, AFRM shares have held up far better than either peer, with a decline of just 1% year to date through Tuesday’s close. The fintech drawdown has been notably uneven at the name level, and Affirm’s chart is the clearest evidence.

Options positioning at Affirm Holdings isn’t stretched in either direction. Affirm’s full-chain put/call ratio sits at 0.73, a fairly balanced read heading into the back half of August, which fits a name that has broadly held its ground this year.

The Global X FinTech ETF and a Concentration Caution Global X FinTech ETF (NASDAQ:FINX) shares trade at $26.80, and the ETF was down 12% year to date through Tuesday’s close. That places the fund between Affirm’s shallow decline and the deeper year-to-date drops at SoFi Technologies and Upstart Holdings.

The fund holds a diversified basket of fintech names, and both SoFi Technologies (4.1% of net assets) and Affirm Holdings (3.8%) are among its top positions. Upstart Holdings carries a much smaller weight of 0.6%, which limits its influence on the fund even on days like this one.

Concentration cuts both ways here. FINX’s top 10 holdings represent 39.5% of net assets, so moves in the largest payments and brokerage constituents can drive the fund’s performance regardless of what smaller-cap fintech names are doing on any given session.

What to Watch Now Investors could look for signs that the retreat in long-end Treasury yields extends through the afternoon, since Wednesday’s fintech bid is tied to that macro move rather than a fresh company catalyst. A reversal in yields could unwind the day’s gains quickly.

The SoFi story remains a wide disconnect between operating results and stock performance. A single up day doesn’t close that gap, and investors may want to size their fintech positions accordingly rather than chasing a one-session rally.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways Pagaya's diversified funding network and lending exposure support a capital-efficient business model.Pagaya's 1H26 revenues rose y/y to $705M, while operating expenses grew only modestly.UPST's 2026 and 2027 earnings are projected to grow 26.4% and 47.1%, respectively. The artificial intelligence (AI)-driven lending landscape has gained momentum as financial institutions increasingly turn to technology to improve credit underwriting, expand borrower access and manage risk. Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY - Free Report) and Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST - Free Report) are two prominent players leveraging AI and alternative data to modernize lending.

While both aim to make credit decisions more efficient and expand access to financing, their models differ. Pagaya operates an AI-powered credit network connecting lenders with institutional capital, while Upstart runs an AI lending marketplace connecting borrowers with financial institutions, thus having greater direct exposure to loan origination and the performance of its lending marketplace.

Now, as AI becomes increasingly embedded in lending, the question arises: which among PGY and UPST can deliver stronger and more sustainable growth? In order to understand this, let us dig deep into their fundamental strengths and growth prospects.

The Case for PGYPagaya has built an adaptable, capital-efficient business model that has evolved beyond its initial focus on personal loans. The company has expanded into auto lending and point-of-sale (POS) financing, broadening its addressable market while reducing reliance on any single loan category. This diversification helps strengthen the platform’s resilience across different economic and credit cycles.

The company has also developed a diversified funding ecosystem, with more than 170 institutional partners and a growing reliance on forward flow agreements. Under these arrangements, investors commit to purchasing loans in advance, providing Pagaya with greater funding visibility and stability, particularly during periods of market volatility. Its funding strategy is further supported by strategic asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance.

Pagaya’s limited on-balance-sheet exposure is another key advantage. Loans are generally transferred quickly to ABS vehicles or institutional investors through forward flow arrangements, with capital secured ahead of origination. This structure helps limit credit and market risk, reduces the need for loan write-downs and allows the company to maintain flexibility even in challenging market conditions.

Technology remains another important differentiator. Pagaya’s proprietary platform, including its pre-screen solution, enables lenders to offer pre-approved credit opportunities to existing customers without requiring a formal application. This allows partner institutions to expand credit access and deepen customer relationships while potentially reducing customer-acquisition and marketing costs.

Improving operating leverage and cost discipline have increasingly supported Pagaya’s earnings growth of late. In the first half of 2026, total revenues rose to $705 million from $616.4 million a year earlier, while operating expenses increased modestly to $519.2 million from $512.2 million. This widening gap between revenue and expense growth highlights the scalability of its model. Building on this momentum, management expects 2026 GAAP net income of $155-$180 million and adjusted EBITDA of $460-$490 million, signaling confidence in continued growth without a proportionate increase in costs.

The Case for UPSTUpstart was among the pioneers in applying AI to consumer lending, using proprietary models to assess borrower risk beyond traditional credit scores. It generates revenues primarily through referral and transaction fees, servicing income, and gains from loan sales and securitizations. With more than 90% of loans fully automated, the platform is designed to make lending faster and more efficient for both borrowers and lending partners.

While personal loans remain the core engine of the business, Upstart is steadily expanding into adjacent categories, including auto lending, home equity and its newer Cash Line product. The company is also working to extend its AI underwriting capabilities into additional credit markets, creating opportunities to diversify revenues over time. The recent recovery in personal lending has strengthened the economics of the core platform, giving Upstart greater capacity to invest in newer products while maintaining its focus on profitability and operating leverage.

Funding remains another important strength of Upstart’s marketplace model. The company continues to broaden its institutional capital base and use forward-flow arrangements to provide greater visibility into loan funding. In July 2026, Upstart announced a multi-year agreement with Castlelake for up to $4 billion in consumer loans over as many as 24 months, reinforcing investor confidence in the platform’s underwriting and credit performance.

Recent performance also suggests that improvements in AI underwriting and loan demand are translating into stronger operating leverage. In the second quarter of 2026, revenues reached $365 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased to roughly $77 million. Management maintained its full-year outlook of $1.4 billion in revenues and $294 million in adjusted EBITDA, while retaining its longer-term target of 35% revenue CAGR from 2025 through 2028 and a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028.

Upstart’s potential national bank charter could provide another structural advantage over the longer term. In July, the OCC granted conditional approval for Upstart Bank, although FDIC and Federal Reserve approvals and other operational conditions remain outstanding. Once fully approved, the charter is expected to reduce certain lending complexities, support nationwide product availability and potentially lower the cost of credit, while existing banks, credit unions and institutional investors are expected to remain important funding partners.

PGY & UPST: Price Performance, Valuation & Other ComparisonsIn the last six months, Pagaya’s price performance has been impressive, with its shares jumping 71.2%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index’s 13% growth. In the same period, the UPST stock has lost 3.5%. Hence, in terms of investor sentiment, PGY has the edge.

6-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation perspective, Pagaya is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) of 2.77X, while the UPST stock is trading at a trailing 12-month P/B of 3.71X.  So, in terms of valuation, PGY is inexpensive compared with Upstart.

P/B TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Pagaya’s return on equity (ROE) of 58.14% is above Upstart’s 26.71%. This reflects that PGY is more efficient in using shareholder funds to generate profits.

ROE
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Pagaya & Upstart’s Earnings & Sales ProspectsThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s 2026 and 2027 revenues indicates year-over-year growth of 13% and 15%, respectively.

The consensus estimate for PGY’s earnings suggests 12.4% and 11% year-over-year growth for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

PGY’s Earnings Growth Estimate
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

On the contrary, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPST’s 2026 and 2027 revenues implies year-over-year increases of 36% and 31%, respectively.

Also, the consensus estimate for Upstart’s earnings indicates 26.4% growth for 2026 and a 47.1% rise for 2027.

UPST’s Earnings Growth Estimate
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

PGY or UPST: Which Stock Is the Better Choice Now?Overall, both Pagaya and Upstart offer compelling exposure to the rapidly evolving AI-driven lending industry, but their investment propositions are meaningfully different.

Consensus estimates point to substantially faster revenue and earnings expansion for UPST in 2026 and 2027. However, the company’s greater exposure to loan origination volumes, credit performance and capital-market conditions makes the business more sensitive to shifts in the economic and funding environment.

Pagaya, meanwhile, offers a more diversified and capital-efficient model, supported by its broad institutional funding network, forward-flow arrangements, limited balance-sheet exposure and expansion across personal, auto and POS lending. The company is already demonstrating improving profitability and operating leverage, while its lower P/B multiple and substantially higher ROE provide an attractive valuation and efficiency advantage over Upstart. Although PGY’s projected revenue and earnings growth is more moderate, its business model may offer greater resilience across credit cycles and less dependence on a single lending category or funding channel.

Thus, Pagaya appears better-positioned for risk-adjusted long-term growth, particularly at its current valuation. Currently, PGY sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), whereas Upstart has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Upstart (UPST +0.22%) has had its share of ups and downs since the fintech went public in late 2020. The company, which uses artificial intelligence (AI) to process loan requests, is currently in a downward trend, with the stock price sliding about 31% year to date.

But there are some promising trends, illuminated in its recent second-quarter earnings, that bear watching. Let's look at them.

Image source: Getty Images.

The advantages of the AI lending platform
Upstart delivered strong results in Q2, beating estimates with revenue up 42% year over year to $365 million and net income jumping 195% to $16.5 million.

The positive net income marked a return to profitability for Upstart after a $7 million net loss in the first quarter. But Upstart has been fairly consistently profitable over the past year, with positive net income in four of the past five quarters.

Also, Upstart originated $4.2 billion in loans in Q2, up 50% year over year. It converted 19.7% of loan inquiries, down from 21.7% in the same quarter a year ago. And 91% of the loans it processed were fully automated, done in seconds by AI.

This provides a huge advantage for Upstart that other banks can't match. The key statistic is the contribution margin. This a metric that examines how much profit Upstart makes on every $1 it lends, after subtracting all costs to process that loan.

In Q2, Upstart generated a record $193 million in contribution profit, up 38% year over year. The contribution margin was 55%, down from 58% in the same quarter a year ago. The fact that 91% of the loans are processed quickly with no human intervention drives up that contribution margin and will continue to do so.

That high contribution profit can then be used to invest back in the technology and other resources or pay down debt. Overall, it just improves the financials for the growing company.

Today's Change

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New bank charter to improve unit economics
The other trend Upstart is seeing is that its revenue gains are outpacing its operating expenses, resulting in a higher operating margin. In Q2, its operating profit increased 224% to $14.6 million and its operating margin jumped from 2% to 4%.

These trends are all pointing Upstart toward increased earnings. For the full year, Upstart anticipates $1.4 billion in revenue, up from $1 billion in 2025 and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $294 million, up from $230 million last year.

Last month, Upstart received approval for a national bank charter and expects to launch its bank in early 2027. This will allow Upstart to collect deposits, which will, in turn, lower its cost of lending. Currently, Upstart pays fees to third-party banks to originate loans, but once it launches its own bank, it will eliminate some of those fees, further improving its contribution margin and unit economics. 

Upstart stock is still not cheap, with a forward P/E of 47. However, Wall Street is fairly bullish on its growth with a median price target of $39.50, suggesting 30% upside. Upstart may not be a strong buy right now, but it is moving in the right direction and could start to take off once it gets its bank charter.

Posted by Defense World Staff on Aug 11th, 2026

Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST – Get Free Report) and Enova International (NYSE:ENVA – Get Free Report) are both mid-cap finance companies, but which is the superior business? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their earnings, risk, valuation, dividends, institutional ownership, profitability and analyst recommendations.

Institutional & Insider Ownership 63.0% of Upstart shares are owned by institutional investors. Comparatively, 89.4% of Enova International shares are owned by institutional investors. 17.3% of Upstart shares are owned by insiders. Comparatively, 8.4% of Enova International shares are owned by insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that hedge funds, large money managers and endowments believe a company is poised for long-term growth.

Analyst Recommendations This is a summary of recent ratings and target prices for Upstart and Enova International, as provided by MarketBeat.com.

Sell Ratings Hold Ratings Buy Ratings Strong Buy Ratings Rating Score Upstart 2 6 8 0 2.38 Enova International 0 0 8 1 3.11 Upstart presently has a consensus price target of $44.40, indicating a potential upside of 46.97%. Enova International has a consensus price target of $247.83, indicating a potential downside of 1.65%. Given Upstart’s higher probable upside, equities analysts plainly believe Upstart is more favorable than Enova International.

Earnings and Valuation This table compares Upstart and Enova International”s gross revenue, earnings per share and valuation.

Gross Revenue Price/Sales Ratio Net Income Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings Ratio Upstart $1.04 billion 2.82 $53.60 million $0.49 61.65 Enova International $3.15 billion 1.99 $308.39 million $13.49 18.68 Enova International has higher revenue and earnings than Upstart. Enova International is trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than Upstart, indicating that it is currently the more affordable of the two stocks.

Risk & Volatility Upstart has a beta of 2.29, indicating that its share price is 129% more volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, Enova International has a beta of 1.22, indicating that its share price is 22% more volatile than the S&P 500.

Profitability This table compares Upstart and Enova International’s net margins, return on equity and return on assets.

Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets Upstart 4.84% 7.13% 1.82% Enova International 10.31% 26.66% 5.55% Summary Enova International beats Upstart on 9 of the 14 factors compared between the two stocks.

About Upstart (Get Free Report)

Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit, and small dollar loans that connects consumer demand for loans to its to bank and credit unions. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

About Enova International (Get Free Report)

Enova International, Inc., a technology and analytics company, provides online financial services in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. The company provides installment loans; line of credit accounts; CSO programs, including arranging loans with independent third-party lenders and assisting in the preparation of loan applications and loan documents; and bank programs, such as marketing services and loan servicing for near-prime unsecured consumer installment loan. It offers money transfer services. It markets its financing products under the CashNetUSA, NetCredit, OnDeck, Headway Capital, Simplic, and Pangea names. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.