Klíčovým ukazatelem ve výsledcích UPS za 3. čtvrtletí bude upravená provozní marže; celoroční prognóza činí 9,48 % a pro segment vnitrostátních zásilek v USA 7,5 %.
In the case of United Parcel Service (UPS +1.72%), it's all about adjusted operating profit margin. This key number lies at the heart of the company's transformational strategy, which entails reducing less-profitable Amazon deliveries in favor of higher-margin e-commerce deliveries, particularly in targeted markets such as healthcare and small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs).
At the same time, UPS's investments in smart facilities and automation are intended to improve productivity and, ultimately, margins. Everything points to margin expansion, but is it working out like that for UPS right now? Let's find out.
UPS changes guidance In the fourth-quarter earnings presentation in January, management forecast full-year revenue of $89.7 billion and an adjusted operating profit margin of 9.6%, implying $8.611 billion in adjusted operating profit. The headline guidance was maintained on the first-quarter earnings call in April. Still, on the second-quarter earnings call, management increased its full-year revenue guidance to $91.2 billion and specifically said that adjusted operating profit would be about $8.65 billion.
UPS United Parcel Service$100.21+$1.69 (+1.72%)
NYSE · As of 2:47 PM ET 10/21/26
Why the guidance change isn't good news Superficially, it's an increase in revenue guidance and also an increase over the implied guidance of $8.611 billion I calculated above. However, there are two key considerations for investors, and they matter a lot for the upcoming results of a company with a near-7% dividend yield.
First, the new guidance implies an adjusted operating margin of 9.48%, down from the 9.6% initially forecast. Second, it's important to understand the nuance of the guidance change. As previously discussed, due to rising fuel costs, UPS raised fuel surcharges by $1.173 billion in the first half. Bearing in mind that the increase in full-year revenue guidance was $1.5 billion to $91.2 billion, it's reasonable to expect a large chunk of the revenue increase is due to the fuel surcharge.
Turning to the difficult question of how much profit UPS is making from the fuel surcharges, its fuel cost and third-party costs increased by $744 million, resulting in a net difference of $429 million -- a figure slightly more than the increase in adjusted operating profit guidance.
Image source: Getty Images.
To be clear, management's position is that the fuel surcharge is intended solely to cover increased fuel costs, and there are associated costs related to fuel disruptions as well. Moreover, CFO Brian Dykes argued that "the net impact to consolidated operating profit dollars was modest" on the second-quarter earnings call.
In the absence of knowing exactly what kind of figure "modest" implies, it could be argued that the combination of a positive contribution from fuel surcharges over fuel cost -- something not likely to prove sustainable -- actually implies a significant decrease in adjusted operating profit margin if the impact of fuel is taken out.
The key metric to look out for As noted, this is the year when UPS should start to build on margin improvement, not least because it finished the so-called "glide down" of Amazon deliveries by 50% (volume) from the start of 2025 to the middle of 2026. That's why investors are so focused on margin, particularly the expected adjusted operating profit margin in the U.S. domestic package segment.
I've replicated what the Wall Street consensus, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, is expecting for the segment, and the company's total adjusted operating margins will be below. As is often the case with Wall Street estimates, the full-year U.S. Domestic Package margin guidance mirrors management's 7.5% guidance given on the last earnings call.
Adjusted Operating Profit
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Est
Q4 2026 Est
Full Year 2026 Est
U.S. Domestic Package
4%
7.96%
6.98%
10.56%
7.53%
Total company
6.24%
9.21%
8.92%
12.65%
9.4%
Data source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Watch UPS's margin guidance All told, in the absence of management disclosing the exact figure, it's hard to know exactly how much fuel surcharges are adding to the blue chip stock's profitability. However, management has guided to a full-year U.S. Domestic Package adjusted operating profit margin of 7.5%, and the implied total company adjusted operating margin guidance is 9.48%.
Any failure to maintain those figures or meet the Wall Street analyst consensus in the table in the third quarter would suggest its margin trajectory isn't quite what most hope for. That said, if UPS beats both expectations, the margin expansion story will support the case for the stock.
UPS má ve čtvrtletí vykázat zisk 1,63 USD na akcii, což představuje meziroční pokles o 6,3 %, při tržbách ve výši 22,23 miliardy USD, meziročně vyšších o 3,8 %.
United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 27, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis package delivery service is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -6.3%.
Revenues are expected to be $22.23 billion, up 3.8% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.12% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for UPS?For UPS, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.95%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination indicates that UPS will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that UPS would post earnings of $1.65 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.76, delivering a surprise of +6.67%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
UPS appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
UPS v roce 2025 vygenerovala volný peněžní tok ve výši 5,47 mld. USD, z něhož dividenda pokryla 5,4 mld. USD; v roce 2026 má dividenda pohltit 98 % volného peněžního toku.
Since it is election season, voters and investors who closely monitor the intersection of financial markets and politics are being inundated with political prognostications often conveyed in "leans/likely/D/R" form.
Essentially, those predictions are pundits' way of saying that a particular result is likely to occur in a specific electoral contest. Sometimes, "probably" is as good as it gets, and that's relevant when addressing the often-discussed fate of the UPS (UPS -0.02%) dividend.
UPS's dividend is probably going to get through 2027, but that's not a "buy" signal. Image source: Getty Images.
It's not a stretch to say that the most-discussed items related to UPS stock are the fate of the payout, the 6.7% yield (as of Friday, Oct. 16), and the company's decision to move away from high-volume, low-margin Amazon deliveries.
So, with transportation and logistics already freezing payouts earlier this year, halting a 16-year streak of dividend increases, investors want clarity and definition. Barring a definitive announcement on the dividend from UPS, "probably" carries the day, which is to say the payout will likely remain frozen for the remainder of 2026 and 2027. That doesn't make the stock a "buy."
Surviving isn't the same as thriving An admittedly intangible factor may be a sign that UPS' dividend survives through 2027. That factor is competition. Smart management teams at dividend-paying companies know there's competition for investors' cash and that dividends, particularly the safe, growing variety, are a source of attraction for that capital.
With 10- and 30-year Treasury yields both north of 5% and those bonds likely offering significantly less risk than UPS shares, a dividend cut or suspension by the industrial company could easily spark a swift sell-off.
UPS and its dividend aren't just competing with bonds. Consider the Dividend Aristocrats® (the term Dividend Aristocrats® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC), which are the S&P 500 companies with a minimum payout increase streak of 25 years. More than 21% of those stocks hail from the industrial sector. So if UPS becomes a dividend offender, investors have plenty of options in the same sector to transition to.
UPS United Parcel Service$97.46-$0.02 (-0.02%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/19/26
Combine Treasury yields and the abundance of other, more reliable dividend growth options in the industrial sector, which are factors likely not lost on UPS management, and the package delivery giant may be compelled/obligated not to embrace negative action next year. Yes, that's not surviving, but no, it isn't thriving, either.
UPS dividend safety is questionable Just as surviving and thriving aren't the same, surviving and being safe are also two very different things. In 2025, UPS generated $5.47 billion in free cash flow, with $5.4 billion of that sum directed to covering the dividend. The problem is that the figure is projected to fall to $5.05 billion this year and $5.01 billion in 2027, implying that the company is increasingly burdened by its dividend obligations.
That doesn't mean a cut or suspension is imminent, but those numbers don't scream "dividend safety." Nor does an estimate of the dividend sapping 98% of 2026 free cash flow.
Risk-tolerant investors mulling positions in UPS ought to consider history. From 2007 through mid-2025, 60% of dividend cutters came from the group of stocks with the highest payout ratios, and a quarter of those names were in both the highest payout ratio and highest dividend yield groups. As of Friday, Oct. 16, just 10 members of the S&P 500 sported dividend yields north of 6%. UPS is one.
To top it all off, UPS is contending with headwinds from rising competition and high fuel prices, potentially setting the stage for disappointing quarterly results. So while UPS' dividend may make it through 2027 unscathed, investors can find more safety with less stress in the industrial sector, and that may be the course of action to take.
UPS v posledním čtvrtletí zvýšila tržby o 7,6 % na 22,83 miliardy USD a vykázala zisk na akcii (EPS) ve výši 1,76 USD, čímž překonala odhady analytiků.
United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this package delivery service have returned -3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.1% change. The Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, to which UPS belongs, has lost 6.5% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, UPS is expected to post earnings of $1.63 per share, indicating a change of -6.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.1% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.19 points to a change of +0.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -0.4%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.97 indicates a change of +10.8% from what UPS is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.1%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for UPS.
Revenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of UPS, the consensus sales estimate of $22.22 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +3.8%. The $91.71 billion and $95.15 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +3.4% and +3.8%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryUPS reported revenues of $22.83 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.6%. EPS of $1.76 for the same period compares with $1.55 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.75 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +4.98%. The EPS surprise was +6.67%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
UPS is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about UPS. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
UPS může ve třetím čtvrtletí kvůli vysokým nákladům na palivo, konkurenci Amazonu a 7% meziročnímu poklesu poptávky v e-commerce v květnu 2026 nesplnit odhady zisku.
There's no such thing as a free lunch, and there's no such thing as a blue chip stock like UPS (UPS +1.04%) yielding 7% without containing a significant amount of risk.
Quite clearly, the market is concerned with the sustainability of the dividend and rightly so, not least as there are reasons to suspect the company could miss its earnings expectations in the quarter and for 2026. Still, even in that case, UPS stock might be a good value.
Why UPS might miss estimates
The doubt around its earnings comes down to three main factors:
Ongoing elevated fuel costs could pressure profit margins at a company that has raised fuel surcharges over and above its fuel cost increases over the last year or so.
Potential competition from Amazon (AMZN -1.74%) could negatively impact UPS's volume or pricing.
Global e-commerce trends don't appear to be favorable to UPS right now.
Premium Feature
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Fuel surcharges, Amazon, and delivery volumes
I previously discussed how UPS raised fuel surcharges by a combined $1.173 billion in the first half of 2026, compared to a combined increase in fuel costs and third-party fuel of $744 million, resulting in a net difference of $429 million.
There are other operating costs associated with fuel supply disruptions, so it's probably unfair to argue that the $429 million drops down into the profit line. Still, it's a large number, and given the ongoing high fuel costs, UPS could struggle to pass through fuel surcharges without taking a hit to volume.
Amazon Supply Chain Services was only launched this year, so it might be a bit premature to expect a direct impact on UPS volumes. However, if Amazon is pricing aggressively to win small and medium-sized business (SMB) deliveries from customers it already has in its Amazon marketplace, UPS could increase pricing in one of its core end markets in the U.S.
Image source: Getty Images.
Finally, UPS's recent Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends report for the third quarter noted, "While AI-driven demand continued to support the air freight sector, e-commerce demand declined 7% YOY in May 2026, marking its sixth consecutive month of contraction."
The AI-driven demand is probably good news for UPS's premium international and supply chain businesses. Still, the weakness in e-commerce deliveries (partly driven by tariff actions that have made Chinese imports uncompetitive) is not.
Why UPS might still be a good value
Don't be surprised if UPS misses earnings estimates in the third quarter. Moreover, its already lightly covered dividend (Wall Street expects $7.20 in earnings per share in 2026, with the dividend per share $6.56) might even come under threat. That said, Delta Air Lines recently missed estimates and cut full-year guidance due to higher fuel expense expectations, and the stock's modest decline suggests the market was somewhat braced for it.
That might also be the case for UPS. If so, it sets the stock up for a recovery if UPS can merely meet expectations and maintain its dividend. My view is that it won't, and it might make sense to wait for the earnings report first before considering buying the stock.
Key Takeaways UPS plans to hire over 100,000 seasonal workers to handle rising holiday demand with RFID-enabled tracking. UPS is focusing on higher-margin deliveries, healthcare logistics and automation to boost long-term profit. Weak shipping volumes, elevated fuel costs and a frozen dividend make UPS less attractive for new investors. Last week, United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) announced it will hire more than 100,000 seasonal employees to meet the anticipated demand surge during the upcoming holiday season. The company said it will offer competitive pay, flexible shifts to fit various schedules and a path to a permanent job.
UPS’s Radio Frequency Identification or RFID-enabled tracking technology plays a vital role in ensuring reliable service by providing more accurate, real-time visibility into packages as they move across its network. The company expects to handle more than 4 billion RFID-enabled packages by the end of the current year. The seasonal recruitment program will support operations during the busiest period (generally November to January) for parcel delivery companies like UPS and FedEx (FDX - Free Report) .
The question that now naturally arises is whether investors should bet on UPS stock following the announcement of hiring seasonal workers for the busy holiday season ahead. Let's delve deep to answer the question.
Factors Working in Favor of UPSE-Commerce Still a Force to Reckon With: Growth has normalized from pandemic highs, but online shopping continues to favor convenient shipping and returns. UPS is using its Digital Access Program (“DAP”) and RFID-enabled tools to deepen SMB and B2B relationships. In second-quarter 2026, global DAP revenues reached $1.4 billion, which marks a third consecutive quarter above $1 billion, while B2B DAP average daily volume rose 34% year over year. RFID at customer origin now covers more than 2.2 million pieces per day, supporting retention and revenue quality.
Expansion Efforts Bode Well: UPS continues to invest in network reach as trade lanes and premium supply chains shift. In 2025, it added weekend delivery in Europe, while a new Philippines air hub is slated to open toward the end of 2026 and a Hong Kong expansion is planned for 2028. Management expects full-year 2026 International revenues to grow in the mid-single digits with a mid-teens operating margin.
As part of its expansion efforts, in November, UPS completed its acquisition of Canadian supply-chain company Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6 billion (C$2.2 billion). The transaction valued Andlauer at C$55 per share in cash for its shareholders.
The deal strengthens UPS’ footprint in the complex healthcare logistics space. With Andlauer’s specialized cold-chain infrastructure and expertise added to its network, UPS Healthcare customers are expected to benefit from shorter transit times, improved end-to-end visibility, expanded global reach and enhanced quality assurance standards.
Focus on Higher-Yielding Deliveries: UPS completed its Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) glide down in second-quarter 2026 after eliminating about 2 million lower-yielding pieces per day and removing roughly $4.5 billion of related expense over 18 months. By quarter-end, 68.5% of U.S. volume flowed through automated buildings compared with 64% a year earlier, where cost per piece is about 28% lower than in non-automated buildings. Full-year 2026 U.S. Domestic margin is guided near 7.5%.
We remind investors that last year, UPS management reached an agreement in principle with Amazon to cut the latter’s shipping volume by more than 50% by June 2026. As noted by the company's CEO, Carol B. Tomé, Amazon was not among UPS’ most profitable customers.
Impressive Earnings History: UPS has exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the past four quarters. Its average earnings beat over this period stands at 12.4%.
Near-Term Headwinds PersistUPS is seeing consistent improvement, largely supported by increased focus on healthcare revenues and efficiencies driven by artificial intelligence, but its near-term outlook remains somewhat uneven. The strategy shift by the shipping giant has resulted in U.S. average daily volume declining 3.3% and International average daily volume falling 5.8% year over year, while U.S. B2B volume decreased 3.2%. Management expects third-quarter 2026 U.S. average daily volume to decline in the mid-single digits, reflecting seasonality and the Amazon comparison.
Owing to the strategic shift, UPS has not increased the quarterly dividend this year, freezing it at $1.64 per quarter ($6.56 annually). UPS’ CFO Brian Dykes has confirmed this and the freeze, which is sure to raise questions about its short-term financial flexibility. The company’s high dividend payout ratio raises concerns about dividend sustainability and is well above its long-term target of 50-60%. In the event of the company failing to put an end to its struggles through the strategic shift, the high payout ratio may lead to a dividend cut, which would be disastrous for dividend investors.
The conflict between Iran and the United States has led to a sharp increase in oil prices, putting pressure on transportation companies like UPS. Since fuel is a major cost component for such businesses, higher prices directly impact profitability.
Price Performance & EstimatesUPS’ shares have declined year to date, underperforming its industry as well as FedEx. In fact, FedEx’s shares have gained, albeit marginally, so far this year, mainly due to its cost-cutting efforts.
YTD Price ComparisonImage Source: Zacks Investment Research
See how the Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS’ earnings has been revised over the past 90 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Take: Don’t Buy UPS Stock NowUPS’ long-term prospects are improving as it shifts focus from low-margin volumes to higher-margin businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises and healthcare logistics. The company’s cost-reduction initiatives are also expected to support profitability and strengthen its long-term investment appeal.
However, the near-term outlook remains mixed. Elevated fuel costs, weak volumes, the 2026 dividend freeze and external uncertainties could weigh on earnings momentum in the coming quarters. At current levels, the stock’s risk-reward profile appears insufficiently attractive for fresh investment. Existing shareholders may be better off holding their positions while monitoring progress on cost optimization and AI-driven business transformation.
UPS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
UPS zveřejní výsledky 27. října 2026; analytici očekávají EPS ve výši 1,63 USD, což představuje meziroční pokles o 6,32 %, a tržby ve výši 22,22 miliardy USD, meziročně vyšší o 3,75 %.
United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) closed at $94.13 in the latest trading session, marking a +1.99% move from the prior day. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.47% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.1%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 1.25%.
Heading into today, shares of the package delivery service had lost 6.98% over the past month, lagging the Transportation sector's loss of 5.3% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.15%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of United Parcel Service in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on October 27, 2026. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $1.63, signifying a 6.32% drop compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $22.22 billion, showing a 3.75% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $7.22 per share and a revenue of $91.6 billion, signifying shifts of +0.84% and +3.32%, respectively, from the last year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for United Parcel Service. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.08% lower. United Parcel Service is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
From a valuation perspective, United Parcel Service is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 12.79. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 15.05, so one might conclude that United Parcel Service is trading at a discount comparatively.
It is also worth noting that UPS currently has a PEG ratio of 1.69. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. The average PEG ratio for the Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry stood at 1.54 at the close of the market yesterday.
The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry is part of the Transportation sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 107, positioning it in the top 44% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Ensure to harness Zacks.com to stay updated with all these stock-shifting metrics, among others, in the next trading sessions.
UPS plánuje v roce 2026 vyplatit dividendy ve výši zhruba 5,4 mld. USD při očekávaném volném peněžním toku 5,5 mld. USD, což ponechává jen minimální rezervu.
UPS yields 7% and the dividend has held steady for seven straight payments, but one look at where the cash is actually coming from turns that income story into something far more uncomfortable.
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United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS | UPS Price Prediction) trades at $93.26. The stock is down 8.83% over the past month and 34.97% over five years. Its $6.56 annualized dividend now yields about 7.03%, and that payout grounds the investment case. When one number supports the whole case, it needs a stress test. The right test is free cash flow, because that is the cash that actually pays the dividend.
Three Years of Thin Cash Coverage Year Operating Cash Flow Capex Dividends Paid Dividends as % of OCF Minus Capex 2023 $10.238B $5.158B $5.372B 105.7% 2024 $10.122B $3.909B $5.399B 86.9% 2025 $8.45B $3.685B $5.398B 113.3% Coverage worsened in 2025. On the July 28 call, management stated the 2026 plan simply:
“We are still planning to pay out around $5.4 billion in dividends in 2026, subject to Board approval.”
Forecast free cash flow is approximately $5.5 billion, which puts the dividend at 98% of it. Year-to-date free cash flow reached only $1.6 billion against $2.7 billion in dividends paid, so the second half has to produce $3.9 billion. Buybacks fell to zero in both 2026 quarters. The quarterly dividend has held at $1.64 for seven straight payments.
Amazon Exit Shrinks the Base Under the Payout UPS cut approximately 2 million pieces per day of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) volume and removed approximately $4.5 billion of expense. In Q2, package volume fell 3.6% while revenue per piece rose 11.3%. CEO Carol Tomé called the result “an expected and significant shift in our performance,” and management added:
“But this reconfiguration was never the destination. It was the foundation.”
That foundation is expensive to build. GAAP EPS was $0.71, while adjusted EPS was $1.76. The gap came from $1.172 billion in transformation costs. Fuel costs also rose 60.4%.
FedEx and Amazon Show What UPS Gave Up FedEx (NYSE:FDX) pays $5.57 against $18.55 in EPS, a payout ratio of about 30% and a yield of 1.93%. UPS pays $6.56 on $5.38 in trailing GAAP EPS, or 122%. Amazon pays no dividend, reinvests everything and trades at 24x forward earnings. UPS trades at 12x. The market prices UPS as an income stream with little growth attached.
Opportunity or Warning: Verdict and Trigger The bull case rests on history: dividend records go back to 1999, forecast adjusted EPS of $7.22 covers the payout, and UPS supports no outstanding commercial paper.
The yield is still a warning sign. Cash fell to $4.653B, a $1.3 billion pension contribution is due, and the Teamsters contract is two years out. Free cash flow fell short of the dividend in two of the past three years, which leaves the payout frozen with almost no cushion. Holders are making 7% today with little chance of a raise.
The signal to watch: if full-year 2026 free cash flow lands below the $5.4 billion dividend commitment, UPS will be funding its payout from the balance sheet. At that point, the yield measures risk more than return (the warning signs that a fat yield is about to be cut are the subject of a free report we put together here: Dividend Traps).
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UBS snížila odhad EPS pro UPS na 1,63 USD ve třetím čtvrtletí a 2,70 USD ve čtvrtém čtvrtletí, ale ponechala doporučení Buy a cílovou cenu 124 USD. Klíčem k výhledu mají být vyšší marže v domácí přepravě.
United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE:UPS) earnings forecasts have been trimmed by UBS, but the broker kept its Buy rating and $124 price target, pointing to improving domestic margins as the key driver of the delivery company's earnings outlook.
The broker lowered third-quarter earnings per share to $1.63 from $1.67, matching consensus, and fourth-quarter earnings to $2.70 from $2.72, below consensus of $2.73.
The third-quarter forecast calls for a sequential decline of 440,000 domestic packages per day, similar to the roughly 400,000-package reduction in the third quarter of 2025.
Against that comparison, domestic volumes are expected to fall 3.6% year over year, broadly matching the second quarter's 3.3% decline.
UBS expects the remaining 20% of driver buyouts taking place in the third quarter, following about 80% in the second, to help offset lower volumes.
Pricing also remains supportive, with feedback from UPS and FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX, XETRA:FDX) pointing to a positive environment, the note says.
For revenue per package, the pricing assumptions include support of 2.5 to 3 percentage points from base pricing and roughly one percentage point from mix.
Fuel, though, should provide 2 to 3 percentage points less year-over-year support to third-quarter domestic revenue per package than in the second quarter, the broker estimated.
Across the business, it expects fuel-price volatility to be roughly neutral overall, with a likely international headwind offset by a domestic tailwind.
Looking ahead, analysts highlighted expectations for a normal peak-season activity lift, based on feedback from transport companies and their customers, despite fuel-price and interest-rate concerns.
The earnings revisions include adjustments to international and domestic package margin forecasts, with domestic margins projected at 7% in the third quarter and 10.6% in the fourth.
Those domestic margins would improve by 64 and 42 basis points year over year, respectively.
The broker views domestic margin improvement as the key driver of earnings and the stock, with its target based on 15 times estimated 2027 earnings of $8.25 per share.
The domestic outlook also reflects lower volumes after UPS's second-quarter results showed less impact than expected from the reduction in Amazon business in late June.
The dip in the United Parcel Service (UPS +0.76%) share price takes its dividend yield to almost 7%. That could prove to be a highly attractive entry point for passive-income-seeking investors. Still, will it prove to be a good buy, or is it a value trap?
What Wall Street analysts expect Wall Street is divided over UPS, with Goldman Sachs recently adding the stock to its "conviction list" with a buy rating and a $132 price target. In comparison, Bank of America recently lowered its price target to $108 from $115 and kept a neutral rating on the stock, citing delivery volume concerns.
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The volume situation is somewhat nuanced. UPS has now completed its so-called "glide down," whereby it voluntarily reduced its delivery volume for Amazon by 50% from the start of 2025 to mid-2026. As such, the 5.7% decline in the U.S. domestic package segment shouldn't come as a surprise. On the second-quarter earnings call, CFO Brian Dykes called for "average daily volume to decline mid-single digits" in the U.S. segment, "reflecting a seasonal decline as well as the impact of this year's Amazon glide down, which completed in June."
UPS expectations Delivery volume is a key number to watch; however, volume is one thing, pricing is another, and the relationship among pricing, volume, and margin is yet another. I'll return to pricing in a moment, but first note that management's guidance calls for U.S. domestic package segment operating margin to be 7% in the third quarter, and then 10.6% for the fourth quarter, based on management's estimate for 8.8% in the back half of the year.
As management notes, these figures imply year-over-year margin growth, which is good and consistent with management's strategy of eschewing low- or negative-margin deliveries from Amazon and others and investing in technology (smart facilities, automation, etc.) to improve productivity.
Image source: Getty Images.
But here's the problem: UPS faces margin pressure, and its massive dividend restricts its ability to react to any significant downward adjustment to its earnings and cash-flow expectations.
Pricing, volume, and margin It's no secret that diesel costs (UPS ground operations) and jet fuel costs (UPS air operations) have both soared this year and stayed stubbornly high as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for commercial traffic. Management offsets these rising costs by imposing fuel surcharges, and CEO Carol Tomé says they "functioned as designed" in the second quarter. Dykes says that while "higher fuel prices were a positive to revenue, the corresponding increase in expense meant that the net impact to consolidated operating profit dollars was modest."
While management didn't quantify the net impact, we know the following from its financial filings:
U.S. domestic package fuel surcharge revenue grew by $721 million in the first half, while international package fuel surcharge revenue grew by $452 million, for a total increase of $1.173 billion. Total company fuel costs rose by $664 million in the first half, and its third-party fuel surcharge expense rose by $80 million. Some simple math indicates a difference of $429 million. To be fair, this is not an exact estimate, as management noted there are other increased operating costs associated with fuel-related disruptions.
Image source: Getty Images.
That said, it's still a large number, and the question is whether UPS can continue to offset increased fuel costs with a fuel surcharge without suffering a loss of volume. It's a particular concern given how much it's gone up in 2026, and Amazon is likely to be competing with UPS, notably in the small and medium-sized business (SMB) market that UPS covets, through its new Amazon Supply Chain Services business launched in the spring.
Is UPS stock a buy? The company's current dividend will cost $5.4 billion in 2026, and management is estimating $5.5 billion in free cash flow. Frankly, this is a slim cover, and there's little room for flexibility if its earnings outlook deteriorates amid higher costs and margin pressure stemming from difficulty meeting volume expectations due to higher prices and Amazon competition. All of which suggests now is not the best time to buy into the stock.
UPS spustila Secure Commerce, který spojuje InsureShield, Parcel Pro a CommerceShield pro dřívější odhalení ztrát a podvodů u zásilek. U Buru zkrátila vyřizování pojistných událostí z 20–25 minut na několik minut.
Key Takeaways UPS is combining InsureShield, Parcel Pro & CommerceShield to manage risks surrounding an order. Data, technology and agentic AI aim to identify shipment loss and fraud risks earlier. Buru cut claims processing from 20-25 minutes to a few minutes with faster claim resolution. United Parcel Service’s (UPS - Free Report) launch of UPS Secure Commerce reflects the expansion of supply chain management beyond transportation and delivery into risk management, fraud prevention and customer experience. By combining InsureShield, Parcel Pro and CommerceShield, UPS is positioning its services as an integrated approach to protecting shipments, revenues and customer relationships.
A notable aspect of the announcement is the emphasis on proactive, data-driven risk management. Rather than addressing shipment loss, fraud or delivery problems only after they occur, United Parcel aims to use its logistics data, technology and agentic AI to identify potential risks earlier. This could be particularly valuable for e-commerce businesses dealing with increasingly complex, multi-carrier supply chains.
The customer example from Buru also highlights the potential operational benefits. Reducing claims processing time from 20-25 minutes to just a few minutes and resolving claims more quickly could help businesses improve efficiency while responding to customers faster. However, the platform’s broader effectiveness will ultimately depend on factors such as implementation costs, data integration, accuracy of risk detection, and how well these solutions work across different carriers and business models.
Overall, UPS Secure Commerce signals a broader shift in logistics from simply moving and protecting packages to managing the entire commercial risk surrounding an order. As e-commerce continues to grow, tools that combine visibility, insurance, fraud mitigation and automation could become increasingly important for businesses seeking to reduce losses while maintaining customer trust.
United Parcel’s Share Price PerformanceUPS’ shares have gained 4.9% over the past six months compared with the Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry’s 12.9% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
UPS’s Zacks RankUPS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Stocks to ConsiderInvestors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector may consider better-ranked stocks like Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD - Free Report) and Herc Holdings (HRI - Free Report) .
Expeditors currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
EXPD has an expected earnings growth rate of 28.6% for 2026. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 17.15%.
Herc Holdings currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.
HRI has a negative expected earnings growth rate of 8.4% for the current year. However, the company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 60.64%.
UPS uzavřela exkluzivní dohodu s TikTok Shop na vracení zboží bez krabice a bez štítku pro americké prodejce. Cílí tím na ziskovější reverzní logistiku.
UPS on Tuesday said it had inked an exclusive deal to provide no-box, no-label returns for the fast-growing TikTok Shop network of US sellers as it competes with rivals like FedEx to provide specialized services that generate more profit than typical e-commerce package deliveries.
Parcel delivery firms like UPS (UPS.N) and FedEx (FDX.N) each have targeted so-called "reverse logistics" services that help retailers reduce the steep cost of returns, which average 27% of a product's purchase price, according to Blue Yonder, a returns-management software company. Amazon.com (AMZN.O) also offers no-box, no-label returns.
Total returns for the retail industry amounted to roughly $850 billion in 2025 and nearly 20% of online sales are returned, according to the National Retail Federation.
TikTok Shop, launched in the US by the popular social media platform in September 2023, has attracted sellers such as retailers Ulta Beauty (ULTA.O) and California-style retailer PacSun. Vendors use ads and sponsored influencers to market their products to TikTok users.
Happy Returns users take unwanted items to any of the nearly 10,000 "returns bars" inside Ulta Beauty, Staples or UPS stores, where workers scan, bag, and label items that are then combined in large boxes and sent daily to processing hubs, saving retailers time and money.
The Happy Returns service is available to participating sellers regardless of whether they handle their own fulfillment or outsource it to TikTok Shop, the companies said.
"Our collaboration with Happy Returns builds on our commitment to making the returns experience faster, hassle free, and more trustworthy for our shoppers," said Patrick Nommensen, TikTok Shop's president of strategic initiatives.
For TikTok Shop sellers the partnership means less return fraud, faster inventory turnaround and a returns experience that builds loyalty, said David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns. Happy Returns uses an AI tool to find fraudulent returns by flagging suspicious packages, analyzing their contents, and sending them for final audit by humans who can verify the fraud and withhold the refund.
Akcie UPS uzavřely na 94,75 USD, což znamená denní pokles o 4,35 % a za poslední měsíc ztrátu 2,89 %. Trh čeká na výsledky, kde se počítá s EPS 1,63 USD a tržbami 22,11 miliardy USD.
United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) closed at $94.75 in the latest trading session, marking a -4.35% move from the prior day. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.49%. At the same time, the Dow added 0.71%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 2.26%.
The stock of package delivery service has fallen by 2.89% in the past month, leading the Transportation sector's loss of 5.43% and undershooting the S&P 500's gain of 0.1%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of United Parcel Service in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is expected to report EPS of $1.63, down 6.32% from the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $22.11 billion, up 3.26% from the year-ago period.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $7.22 per share and revenue of $91.37 billion, which would represent changes of +0.84% and +3.06%, respectively, from the prior year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for United Parcel Service. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained steady. Right now, United Parcel Service possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Investors should also note United Parcel Service's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 13.72. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 15.02.
Also, we should mention that UPS has a PEG ratio of 1.77. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo was holding an average PEG ratio of 1.62 at yesterday's closing price.
The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry is part of the Transportation sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 107, placing it within the top 44% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
Bank of America (BofA) has reiterated its 'Neutral' rating on United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE:UPS) and cut its price target to $108 from $115, citing weaker domestic package volumes and lower earnings expectations.
The broker lowered its 2026 revenue estimate to $91.3 billion from $92.5 billion after a sharp decline in Amazon package volumes at the end of the second quarter, which it said was more abrupt than expected.
BofA expects UPS to report third-quarter 2026 revenue of $22.4 billion, down from its previous estimate of $23.2 billion, while its full-year forecast remains slightly above UPS's own $91.2 billion target because of higher fuel surcharges.
The broker maintained its second-quarter domestic operating margin forecast at 7% and its international operating margin forecast at 13.5%.
BofA cut its earnings per share estimates for the second quarter, 2026 and 2027 by 4%, 2% and 2%, respectively, to $1.65, $7.10 and $8.
The reductions were driven primarily by expectations for domestic package volumes to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage in the second half of 2026, reflecting the sharper-than-expected drop in Amazon volumes.
The broker said it had previously expected Amazon's reduction in UPS volumes to be distributed more evenly through the second quarter, rather than falling sharply at the end of the period.
The bank also raised its forecast for UPS's below-the-line expenses to $191 million from $161 million after the company made a large cash payment to Teamster drivers under an agreement covering about 7,500 separations.
The payment reduced UPS's cash balance and contributed to the broker's lower earnings expectations, according to BofA.
The broker based its revised $108 price target on 13.5 times its 2027 earnings estimate, compared with 14 times previously, putting its valuation multiple slightly below UPS's historical 14 to 20 times range.
BofA said UPS could have upside potential as it cuts costs to adjust to lost volumes, while the company is targeting a significant improvement in second-half 2026 results as it moves beyond the decline in package volumes.
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UPS ve 2. čtvrtletí překonala očekávání: tržby vzrostly o 7,5 % a firma zvýšila výhled pro fiskální rok 2026. Volný peněžní tok zůstává silný a dividendový výnos činí 6,4 %.
SummaryUnited Parcel Service remains a "Buy," with shares fundamentally undervalued and supported by robust free cash flow and a 6.4% dividend yield.Q2 results exceeded expectations, with revenue up 7.5% and all segments contributing to a double beat and raised FY 2026 guidance.Valuation remains attractive, with a forward P/E of 15.7x and an intrinsic value target near $121, despite technicals showing mixed momentum.Key risks include rising energy costs, potential dividend cuts, macroeconomic headwinds, and union negotiations ahead of the October 27 earnings event. Getty Images
United Parcel Service (UPS) has been active in its strategic focus and shifts lately. At the end of August, the global freight & logistics company named Nando Cesarone to a new Chief Global Operations Officer role amid other leadership changes, helping to preserve continuity
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Most companies want to do more business. Not all business is necessarily worth doing though.
That's the dilemma that logistics outfit United Parcel Service (UPS +0.31%) had been facing for some time before deciding early last year to scale back the amount of delivery work it was doing for e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN +1.94%). While this relationship generated plenty of revenue, the company felt the revenue it generated was no longer profitable enough.
That's why, all told, it ultimately cut its Amazon volume by more than half. Here's what this could mean for the stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
The plan appears to have worked as hoped. While sales are down slightly (albeit, not nearly as much as one might expect) since then, gross profits and operating cash flow appear to be stabilizing and even teasing the possibility of recovering at a faster rate than revenue is expected to in 2027.
Arguably, most encouraging is the fact that, despite soaring fuel costs in the meantime, UPS's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins and gross margins are both holding up at levels well above 2024's when the cost of continuing to do so much business with Amazon became untenable.
UPS Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.
The likelihood of returning to 2022's amazing profitability anytime soon is very low, for the record. That was the proverbial perfect storm for its business. Despite the prices of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and gasoline soaring in 2022 before easing back to more palatable levels in 2023 and 2024, the lingering COVID-19 pandemic continued to spur consumers to do a great deal of their shopping online. UPS just wasn't able to navigate that price volatility as well as Amazon did.
In UPS's CEO Carol Tomé's own words on the matter, however, by "taking control of our destiny," the company's future now looks measurably brighter than it did just a couple of years ago.
James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
UPS investuje přes 2 mld. USD do roku 2028 do mezinárodních, zdravotnických a operací v oblasti dodavatelského řetězce. Cílem je posílit globální logistickou síť, rychlost i spolehlivost.
Key Takeaways UPS is investing over $2B through 2028 across international, healthcare and supply chain operations. New hubs and expanded capacity should improve UPS's cross-border connectivity and network efficiency. Trade uncertainty, tariffs & geopolitical tensions could limit near-term benefits from UPS's expansion. United Parcel Service’s (UPS - Free Report) more than $2 billion investment across its International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions businesses underscores its commitment to strengthening its global logistics network. The investments, planned through 2028, are expected to improve speed, reliability and visibility while helping customers navigate shifting trade routes, evolving regulations and supply chain disruptions.
The expansion of facilities and air capacity across Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Americas should enhance UPS’ ability to capture growth in high-value and time-sensitive markets, particularly in healthcare, technology, automotive and industrial manufacturing. New hubs in the Philippines and Hong Kong, along with expanded capabilities in South Korea and North America, should improve cross-border connectivity and increase network efficiency.
United Parcel’s focus on integrated air, ground, brokerage and distribution services could strengthen customer relationships by reducing handoffs and providing greater end-to-end control. Its investments in temperature-controlled facilities and cold-chain infrastructure are particularly favorable for healthcare logistics, where demand for reliable, time-sensitive transportation remains strong.
However, the company continues to operate amid an uncertain global trade environment. Changing tariffs, regulations, trade routes and geopolitical tensions could disrupt international shipping volumes and increase operating complexity. While United Parcel’s investments are aimed at making its network more resilient, prolonged macroeconomic and trade uncertainty could weigh on demand and limit the near-term benefits of its expanded capacity.
Share Price PerformanceUPS’ shares have gained 0.3% over the past three months against the Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry’s 9.8% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
UPS’s Zacks RankUPS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Stocks to ConsiderInvestors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector may consider Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD - Free Report) and Teekay Tankers Ltd (TNK - Free Report) .
EXPD currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Expeditors has an expected earnings growth rate of 29% for 2026. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 17.15%.
Teekay Tankers currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
TNK has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the current year. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 10.93%.
UPS zvýšila celoroční výhled tržeb na zhruba 91,2 miliardy USD a upraveného zisku na akcii na asi 7,22 USD. Firma zároveň oznámila, že volný cash flow se za první pololetí více než zdvojnásobil na 1,57 miliardy USD.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UPS due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for United Parcel Service, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Earnings Beat at UPS in Q2Quarterly adjusted earnings of $1.76 per share increased 13.5% year over year. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 by 6.7%. Revenues rose 7.6% to $22.83 billion and surpassed the consensus estimate of $21.75 billion by 5%. Growth across all three segments supported the top line, while International revenue per piece climbed 18.9%.
UPS' Domestic Revenues Rise on Strong PricingU.S. Domestic Package revenues increased 6% year over year to $14.93 billion, driven by a 9.3% improvement in revenue per piece. Average daily package volume declined to 16 million from 16.6 million a year earlier, indicating that pricing more than offset lower shipment activity.
Adjusted operating profit advanced 21% year over year to $1.19 billion. The adjusted operating margin expanded 100 basis points to 8%, even as adjusted cost per piece increased 8% to $13.09. The margin improvement reflects progress from UPS’ network reconfiguration and efficiency initiatives.
United Parcel Service’s International Sales JumpInternational Package revenues increased 12.5% year over year to $5.04 billion. The segment delivered the strongest revenue growth among UPS’ operating businesses, aided by the sharp increase in revenue per piece.
Adjusted operating profit declined 8.7% year over year to $623 million. The adjusted operating margin contracted to 12.4% from 15.2% in the prior-year quarter, showing that higher revenue did not translate into operating profit growth as segment expenses increased.
UPS Supply Chain Business Delivers Profit GrowthSupply Chain Solutions revenues rose 7.8% year over year to $2.86 billion. The improvement was primarily driven by growth in forwarding and logistics operations, including the healthcare business.
Adjusted operating profit increased 37.3% year over year to $291 million. The adjusted operating margin expanded 220 basis points to 10.2%, reflecting stronger operating leverage and making Supply Chain Solutions the company’s most improved segment on a profitability basis.
United Parcel Service Expands Adjusted MarginConsolidated adjusted operating profit rose 12% year over year to $2.10 billion. The adjusted operating margin increased to 9.2% from 8.8%, supported by profit growth in the U.S. Domestic Package and Supply Chain Solutions businesses.
On a GAAP basis, operating profit fell to $930 million from $1.82 billion, while diluted earnings declined to 71 cents per share from $1.51. Results included $1.17 billion of pretax transformation strategy costs, primarily related to employee separation expenses associated with the Driver Choice Program.
UPS Network Changes Produce Cost BenefitsUPS generated approximately $1.2 billion of benefits from its network reconfiguration and Efficiency Reimagined initiatives during the first six months of 2026. Management expects these programs to deliver approximately $3 billion of benefits for the full year.
The company completed its planned Amazon volume reduction and related network changes during the period. UPS has reduced its operational workforce and closed daily operations at certain facilities as it aligns network capacity with its changing shipment mix. The broader initiatives are expected to conclude by 2027.
United Parcel Service’s Free Cash Flow More Than DoublesCash provided by operating activities increased to $3.08 billion in the first six months of 2026 from $2.67 billion a year earlier. Capital expenditures declined to $1.72 billion from $2 billion.
Free cash flow more than doubled to $1.57 billion from $742 million. The improvement gives UPS greater flexibility to fund network investments, meet financial obligations and return capital to shareholders.
UPS’ 2026 Outlook RaisedManagement raised its full-year consolidated revenue outlook to approximately $91.2 billion from the prior view of $89.7 billion. UPS also lifted its adjusted operating profit target to approximately $8.65 billion and adjusted earnings guidance to approximately $7.22 per share.
Capital expenditures are still projected at roughly $3 billion. Dividend payments are expected to total around $5.4 billion, subject to board approval, while the effective tax rate is projected to be approximately 23%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -6.4% due to these changes.
VGM ScoresCurrently, UPS has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, UPS has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
United Parcel Service is investing more than $2 billion into its business across its international, healthcare and supply chain solutions businesses, the company told CNBC exclusively on Monday.
The ongoing investments began in 2024 and will continue through 2028, but UPS said it had not previously disclosed the total investment. The shipping giant said the aim is to help businesses move faster and stay adaptable to changing macroeconomic pressures and global supply chain disruptions.
"These investments are really aligned to one of our big strategic areas of focus, which is creating capabilities to enable our customers, particularly in complex industries, to more effectively run their global supply chains," Scott Szwast, vice president of international strategy, told CNBC.
Some of the projects under the investment include a new hub in the Philippines this year, a new Canadian facility opening next year in Ontario and a new air hub at Hong Kong International Airport in 2028.
UPS has launched a tech-enabled logistics center in Taiwan and a supply chain solutions facility in Amsterdam that combines freight, brokerage and cold-chain solutions. Szwast said the new logistics center in Taiwan has been able to leverage automation and robotics to increase the total supply chain speed by a day.
The logistics company also said it now has flights running five times a week between Paris and Hong Kong and between Shenzhen, China, and Sydney to meet growing demand.
Szwast said as global supply chains get more complicated, certain global markets, like those across Asia, are becoming more important for companies than they were before.
"What they find in a lot of cases is that their supply chains look more like their histories than their strategies," he said. "They need very agile, very effective solutions to connect these new parts of their businesses. They need a lot of optionality and a lot of flexibility, and that's what we're investing in."
UPS also recently announced a $48 million investment into 27 temperature-controlled facilities across its network to supplement its healthcare initiatives, including the shipment of temperature-sensitive medications like GLP-1 drugs. That announcement came as logistics companies around the globe are racing to stay ahead of growing demand in niche areas like cold-chain storage.
Especially as macroeconomic pressures disrupt global supply chains, Szwast said, businesses have been increasingly trying to ensure they don't have "all their operational eggs in one basket." At the same time, those companies are also innovating new products with new shipping needs at rates not seen before, he added.
Szwast said the investments will help UPS differentiate its end-to-end logistics offerings, ensuring the logistics company can equip businesses from the first step to the last step of the shipping process.
"We're investing to give them tailored capabilities aligned to the needs of their specific industries that cover the markets they're increasingly sourcing from and distributing to, and do it in a way that they can make commitments to their customers," Szwast said.
UPS čelí pochybnostem o kvalitě zisků a o tom, zda dividendy neomezují investice do sítě. Další riziko představuje Amazon, který rozšiřuje vlastní služby dodavatelského řetězce.
UPS (UPS -0.56%) consistently appears in value-stock investors' filters. After all, who doesn't like the sound of a blue chip stock yielding 6.4% and trading at just 14.3 times 2026 earnings expectations? In addition, there's an attractive strategic transformation underway that supports long-term margin improvement as management repurposes its network for higher-margin deliveries in targeted end markets. It's a compelling mix, but there are some concerns that investors need to address before buying the stock.
UPS strategy The company is transforming away from chasing volume growth and toward higher-margin end markets such as small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), healthcare, and business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce deliveries. This involves the so-called Amazon.com (AMZN -0.57%) "glide down," whereby UPS reduced its Amazon delivery volume by 50% from the start of 2025 to the middle of 2026.
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At the same time, it's investing in technology, notably automation and smart facilities, to improve productivity and operate a leaner, more profitable network. Everything points to a long-term future with higher margins, and the bullish case for the stock sees UPS emerging from the glide-down in 2026 (after incurring upfront, temporary costs associated with reducing its labor force by 78,000 and closing 150 buildings) into a higher-margin future.
Unfortunately, there are a few problems with it.
UPS quality of earnings First, UPS appears to be generating revenue from fuel surcharges charged to customers, which is likely to prove unsustainable over time. To be fair, there may be other costs associated with higher fuel prices, but here's a look at the reported increase in fuel surcharges relative to fuel expenses.
UPS
2024
2025
First Half 2026
Fuel surcharge change
Down $280 million
Up $282 million*
Up $1,173 million
Fuel expense change
Down $409 million
Down $50 million
Up $774 million
Net benefit
$129 million
$332 million
$429 million
Data source: UPS presentations. *UPS only reported the increase in U.S. Domestic package fuel surcharges.
This is not a high-quality way to generate earnings.
The dividend is constraining investment Investments in productivity are working well for UPS, with CEO Carol Tome disclosing that "68.5% of the volume in our U.S. business was flowing through an automated building compared to 64% one year ago," and "the cost per piece in an automated building is about 28% lower than a non-automated building."
But here's the thing. UPS could theoretically invest more in its network and, arguably, be more aggressive in acquisitions to develop healthcare or SMB volumes if it didn't use so much of its free cash flow (FCF) paying out roughly $5.4 billion in dividends. Management expects $5.5 billion in FCF, but according to the Wall Street analyst consensus from Visible Alpha, this figure will include $291 million from property disposals related to the building closures. Without this unsustainable cash-flow source, UPS's FCF will not cover its dividend, and the dividend is arguably holding back capital spending.
Image source: Getty Images.
Amazon's launch of its supply chain services business is a genuine threat to UPS. The company has spent years building its supply chain network to support its own growth, but is now extending that expertise to offer supply chain services to customers beyond its marketplace sellers.
In addition, Amazon can sell more services to marketplace sellers who previously used only Amazon's services for activities related to Amazon's marketplace. This is a formidable threat to UPS and FedEx and needs to be taken seriously.
While UPS and FedEx have the business moat of a highly tuned, efficient network, the reality is that Amazon's entry could significantly constrain their ability to raise prices. Moreover, the strength of Amazon's relationships with SMBs could directly challenge UPS in a core growth market.
Image source: Getty Images.
A value stock to buy? UPS is doing a lot of the right things, but cautious long-term investors may want to see how the company emerges from the Amazon "glide down" over the next few quarters before buying in. If successful, UPS investors can expect margin expansion in 2027, but it needs to improve the quality of its earnings and cash flow and demonstrate resilience to the Amazon threat before investors feel fully confident buying in.
UPS drží dividendu na 1,64 USD na akcii už sedm čtvrtletí v řadě a autor očekává, že zůstane zmrazená až do konce roku 2027. Firma má podle výhledu na rok 2026 volný peněžní tok zhruba 5,5 miliardy USD proti dividendám ve výši 5,4 miliardy USD.
UPS (UPS -0.56%) declared its quarterly dividend of $1.64 per share earlier this month, payable Sept. 3. The declaration got no attention, which is understandable. It was the seventh straight quarter at the same rate.
That streak is the story, though. My prediction is that it keeps going: no dividend increase in 2026, none in 2027, and a payout that sits frozen at $6.56 per year through the end of 2027.
Not cut (the parcel giant guards this dividend fiercely) but frozen, because the cash-flow math has stopped leaving room for anything more.
Image source: Getty Images.
A 91% payoutThe dividend's cost is easiest to see against earnings. UPS guided for 2026 non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share of about $7.22 when it reported second-quarter results on July 28. An annual payout of $6.56 works out to about 91% of that.
And the earnings basis matters here. On a GAAP basis, UPS earned just $0.71 per share in the second quarter, weighed down by $891 million of after-tax charges tied to workforce reductions, against $1.76 adjusted. The adjusted figure is the flattering one, and the dividend still consumes nine-tenths of it.
At around $102 per share as of this writing, the stock yields 6.4%, more than six times what an S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.43%) index fund pays.
A yield that high, on a blue-chip dividend stock, is the market saying it doubts this payout grows from here. I'd go further. The doubt is well-founded, even if an outright cut never comes.
The dividend outruns the cashNow the cash. Through the first six months of 2026, UPS generated $3.1 billion of operating cash flow, up from $2.7 billion in the same period a year earlier, and spent $1.7 billion on capital projects. Free cash flow, on the company's own measure, came to about $1.6 billion -- and dividends over the same stretch came to $2.7 billion.
So the business funded about 60% of its dividend internally and covered the rest from its balance sheet.
Other signs point in the same direction. Share repurchases, a $1 billion item in the first half of last year, went to zero this year. And UPS has been borrowing. The company sold $1 billion of five-year notes on Aug. 10 and another $325 million of long-dated floating-rate notes on Aug. 14.
One detail from that first bond sale stands out. UPS earmarked $450 million of the new notes for contribution directly to its pension trusts. A company funding pension obligations with freshly issued debt, while paying out $5.4 billion a year in dividends, is a company managing its cash carefully because it has to.
To be fair, the second half should look better. UPS raised its full-year outlook to about $91.2 billion of revenue, and its U.S. domestic segment's adjusted operating margin expanded a full percentage point year over year to 8% last quarter. And the costly walk-away from Amazon volume is finished. Management says the 18-month glide down of that business and the network reshuffle around it wrapped up as designed, and the deliberate trade of volume for profitability is what shows up in that expanding margin.
Additionally, management expects about $3 billion of full-year capital expenditures against $5.4 billion of dividends, and cash flow typically builds late in UPS's year.
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Freeze, not cutBut better is not the same as enough. Management's own full-year outlook calls for free cash flow of about $5.5 billion, one-time buyout payments included, next to the $5.4 billion dividend bill. Even hitting its targets, UPS exits 2026 with a payout that consumes about 91% of adjusted earnings and essentially all of the free cash. The next increase has to come from somewhere, and every source (an earnings recovery, lower charges, the finished network overhaul) is already spoken for by the current rate.
That is why I expect a freeze rather than a cut. UPS calls its commitment to the dividend "one of UPS's core principles and a hallmark of the company's financial strength," and its own phrasing is that it has "maintained or increased" the payout every year since going public in 1999.
That wording leaves room to stand still. And the company has been using the room -- every declaration since the start of 2025 has been $1.64.
Could UPS tack on a token penny to keep the growth streak technically alive? It could. A cent per quarter costs only about $35 million a year. But seven quarters of standing still suggest management has already made its choice. I expect the $1.64 rate to hold through 2027, and I'd treat the 6.4% yield as compensation for a payout that has stopped growing.
UPS dokončila odklon od Amazonu a přestala denně přepravovat asi 2 miliony kusů, čímž snížila náklady spojené s tímto objemem o zhruba 4,5 miliardy USD.
UPS (UPS -0.56%) spent 18 months deliberately shrinking its relationship with its biggest customer, and on July 28 it declared the job finished. In the earnings release, CEO Carol Tomé thanked employees for having "successfully completed our Amazon glide down and related network reconfiguration initiatives as designed."
The scale of what ended is massive. On the earnings call, Tomé said UPS had eliminated about 2 million pieces per day of what she called lower-quality Amazon (AMZN -0.57%) volume, removing roughly $4.5 billion of related expenses along the way.
For Amazon shareholders, the story runs the other way. Two million packages a day stopped moving through UPS trucks. Who's moving them now, and at what cost?
Image source: Amazon.
UPS got what it wantedThe carrier's results say a lot about the volume it gave up. UPS's second-quarter U.S. domestic revenue rose 6% year over year on a 9.3% increase in revenue per piece -- more money on fewer packages. The segment's non-GAAP (adjusted) operating margin expanded to 8%, up a full percentage point from a year earlier. And the company raised its full-year revenue outlook to about $91.2 billion.
And Tomé told analysts that excluding Amazon and the volume UPS intentionally handed to the market, its volume grew in the second quarter.
Put another way, the packages UPS shed were the ones diluting its profitability. Residential e-commerce delivery is expensive relative to what shippers pay, and UPS's margin went up as less of it flowed through the network.
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The biggest parcel carrier is the shipperMost of that volume appears to have gone to Amazon itself. According to logistics data firm ShipMatrix, Amazon's delivery arm handled an estimated 6.7 billion U.S. parcels in 2025. The U.S. Postal Service handled 6.6 billion, UPS came in at 4.4 billion, and FedEx delivered 3.6 billion. That made Amazon the country's largest parcel carrier by volume.
The growth rates were just as lopsided. Amazon's volumes rose nearly 10% in 2025, while UPS and the Postal Service each shrank 8.6%, ShipMatrix found. FedEx was the only one of the three traditional carriers whose volume grew.
To be fair, Amazon hasn't said precisely how much of the departed UPS volume it absorbed itself. The company still hands packages to the Postal Service and other carriers for portions of the last mile, so some of the load simply moved between carriers.
But Amazon's own delivery network is already expanding fast. The company is spending more than $4 billion to triple its rural delivery footprint by the end of this year, growing that network to over 200 delivery stations reaching more than 13,000 ZIP codes -- capacity it says will handle over a billion additional packages a year. The rural build is one slice of the capital expenditures Amazon keeps pouring into its delivery network.
The contrast with the carriers is sharp. FedEx and UPS charged remote-delivery surcharges of about $15.50 and $15.35 per package last year, and Amazon is building density in the kinds of places its rivals charge extra to visit.
A $27.9 billion quarterly shipping billThat capacity isn't free, and Amazon's income statement shows where the cost lands. The company's worldwide shipping costs hit $27.9 billion in the second quarter, up 19% from $23.4 billion a year earlier. Across the first six months of 2026, shipping costs rose 17% to $53.6 billion, so the bill is growing faster as the year goes on.
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Compare that to what the shipping supports. Amazon's online-store sales grew 15% year over year in the second quarter, so the delivery bill is outpacing the revenue it serves.
Why carry the load anyway? Because for Amazon, delivery is part of the product. The company's own filings credit its sales growth partly to its "fast shipping offers," and speed is easier to guarantee on a network Amazon controls than on one it rents.
That, I think, is the right way to read the 2 million daily packages. Volume that was a margin problem for a carrier is, for Amazon, the cost of owning its promise to customers.
The trade-off is right there in the numbers: shipping costs rising 19% against 15% online-store growth. UPS is done with the volume. The cost of carrying it sits on Amazon's own network now, and it likely will for a long time.
UPS v roce 2026 očekává růst výnosů o 3 % na 91,2 miliardy USD a upraveného EPS o 1 % na 7,22 USD. Firma zároveň dál omezuje závislost na Amazonu, jehož podíl na výnosech byl v letech 2024 a 2025 asi 11 % a v první polovině 2026 klesl pod 9 %.
UPS (UPS -0.29%), one of the world's largest shipping couriers, significantly reduced its dependence on Amazon (AMZN -1.83%) over the past two years. In early 2025, UPS announced it would reduce its Amazon-related shipping volume by more than 50% through 2026. By mid-2026, UPS had phased out its standard last-mile delivery services for Amazon across its major markets, reducing its shipment volume by millions of pieces per day.
Amazon had been UPS's largest customer, so it might initially seem like an odd move to eliminate those services. However, those last-mile shipments clogged its sorting facilities and generated lower profits than its longer-range deliveries. Therefore, UPS was willing to sacrifice its near-term revenue to stabilize its long-term margins. Let's see if that was the right call.
Image source: UPS.
How much did UPS depend on Amazon? In 2024 and 2025, UPS generated about 11% of its revenue from Amazon. That percentage dipped below 9% in the first half of 2026 and should shrink even further in the second half.
That percentage won't drop to zero, since UPS will still process Amazon's returns at its UPS Stores, handle its marketplace seller logistics, and deliver its long-distance freight. It will also still fulfill Amazon's last-mile orders in certain rural areas and during peak delivery seasons. Therefore, it's not completely cutting ties with Amazon, as FedEx (FDX -0.32%) did in 2019.
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What will the impact be on its business? UPS is focused on securing higher-margin orders from small- to medium-sized businesses and healthcare customers to offset its loss of Amazon's orders. It's also trimming its workforce, closing some facilities, and automating more tasks to streamline its business.
For 2026, UPS expects its revenue to rise 3% to $91.2 billion as its adjusted EPS grows 1% to $7.22. Those growth rates might seem sluggish, but they would mark the first time its revenue and adjusted EPS have grown in tandem since 2022.
More importantly, achieving that acceleration would also prove that UPS doesn't need Amazon's lower-margin orders to keep growing. It also counters the bearish notion that macro, competitive, and labor-related headwinds would limit its long-term growth.
Is UPS a good investment today? At $100, UPS still looks like a bargain at 14 times this year's earnings, and it pays an attractive forward dividend yield of 6.4%. It's raised that payout for 16 consecutive years. UPS isn't an exciting stock, but its low valuation, high yield, and steady turnaround all make it a safe income play in this tumultuous market.
UPS ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšila upravený zisk na akcii o 13,5 % na 1,76 USD a tržby o 7,6 % na 22,83 miliardy USD. Firma také zvedla výhled tržeb pro rok 2026 na 91,2 miliardy USD.
Key Takeaways UPS Q2 adjusted EPS rose 13.5% as revenue increased 7.6% to $22.83 billion despite weaker volumes.
UPS expects about $3 billion in 2026 network savings after generating $1.2 billion in first-half benefits.
UPS raised 2026 revenue guidance to $91.2 billion and expects adjusted operating profit of $8.65 billion.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS - Free Report) emerged from the second quarter with better-than-expected earnings, higher full-year guidance and further evidence that its network overhaul is lowering costs. The key question is whether those savings can continue to support margins while package volumes remain under pressure.
UPS Q2 Beat Shows the Mix Shift Is WorkingUPS reported adjusted earnings of $1.76 per share, up 13.5% year over year and 6.7% above the consensus estimate. Revenues increased 7.6% to $22.83 billion. The second-quarter earnings beat was the fourth successive one by UPS. The average earnings beat is 12.4%.
The results indicate that pricing and mix are helping offset weaker shipment activity. U.S. Domestic revenue per piece increased 9.3% even as average daily package volume declined. That combination is important for margins because UPS is generating more revenue from each package while reducing costs across its network.
Continued improvement will depend partly on whether revenue per piece can remain firm without further pressure on volumes.
UPS Network Savings Could Reach $3 BillionUPS generated about $1.2 billion of benefits from its network reconfiguration and Efficiency Reimagined initiatives during the first half of 2026. Management expects the benefits to reach approximately $3 billion for the full year.
Workforce reductions, facility actions and capacity adjustments are central to those savings. The gap between first-half benefits and the full-year target also means a sizable portion of the expected efficiencies is still ahead.
If UPS delivers those savings while maintaining service levels, the restructuring could provide additional support to operating margins even in a lower-volume environment. Execution risk remains, however, as deeper network changes can bring transition costs and operational complexity. UPS’ rival FedEx (FDX - Free Report) is also aiming at cost-cuts to combat the weak demand scenario.
UPS Raises 2026 Revenue and Profit OutlookManagement raised its 2026 consolidated revenue outlook to about $91.2 billion from $89.7 billion and expects adjusted operating profit of roughly $8.65 billion. Adjusted earnings are projected at approximately $7.22 per share.
The higher outlook gives investors a measurable test for the restructuring program. Cost reductions alone will not determine whether margins keep improving. UPS also needs its pricing, package mix and network productivity to offset softer shipment demand. During the second quarter, UPS completed a plan to deliver fewer packages for Amazon.com (AMZN - Free Report) .
Reaching the revised operating-profit target would provide further evidence that the company can translate restructuring benefits into earnings rather than simply use the savings to absorb volume weakness.
UPS Cash Flow Adds Flexibility During RestructuringCash generation also improved in the first half. Free cash flow more than doubled to $1.57 billion from $742 million as operating cash flow increased and capital expenditures declined.
That gives UPS greater flexibility while it reshapes its network. The company can continue funding investments and meeting financial obligations while absorbing restructuring expenses. Higher free cash flow also reduces the pressure on operating improvements to immediately translate into available cash.
UPS Signals Temper the Post-Earnings OptimismUPS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The company also has a VGM Score of A, with a Value Score of B, Growth Score of B and Momentum Score of B. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Those Style Scores support the operational picture, but they do not override the Zacks Rank. The Style Scores are designed to complement the Rank, with the Rank remaining the primary measure tied to earnings-estimate revisions.
UPS has made measurable progress on costs, pricing and cash generation. Still, lower package volumes and the need to deliver the remaining network savings leave execution as the main issue to watch. If the company reaches its roughly $3 billion savings target without weakening service or pricing, further margin improvement looks achievable. For now, the Zacks Rank #3 appropriately balances that potential against the risks still facing the transformation.
UPS čeká v roce 2026 růst tržeb o 3 % na 91,2 miliardy USD a růst upraveného zisku na akcii o 1 % na 7,22 USD. To by znamenalo první souběžný růst tržeb i EPS od roku 2022.
UPS (UPS +2.10%), one of the world's largest shipping couriers, trades at just 14 times forward earnings and pays a forward dividend yield of 6.4%. Does that make it the best dividend stock in the industrial sector right now, or does it face too many unpredictable headwinds?
Image source: UPS.
Has UPS finally stabilized its business? UPS' stock has risen about 26% over the past 12 months. But it remains 44% below its all-time high of $192.88, which it reached on Feb. 2, 2022.
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UPS' stock stumbled as delivery volumes pulled back from pandemic-era levels and margins shrank. Inflation, intense competition from FedEx and other couriers, a new contract with the Teamsters union to avert a strike, and an intentional reduction in Amazon's (AMZN -1.82%) lower-margin orders exacerbated that pressure.
To stabilize its business, UPS focused on securing higher-margin orders from small- to medium-sized businesses and healthcare customers as it continued to decouple from Amazon. It also trimmed its workforce and automated more tasks. So while UPS' total package volume and revenue continued to decline, its average revenue per piece rose, its adjusted operating margins stabilized, and its adjusted EPS finally grew again in 2025.
Metric
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Average Daily Package Volume
25.25M
24.29M
22.29M
22.42M
20.85M
Average Revenue Per Piece
$12.32
$13.38
$13.62
$13.60
$14.50
Total Revenue
$97.29B
$100.34B
$90.96B
$91.07B
$88.66B
Adjusted Operating Margin
13.5%
13.8%
10.9%
9.8%
9.8%
Adjusted EPS
$12.13
$12.94
$8.78
$7.72
$7.16
Data source: UPS.
For 2026, UPS expects its revenue to rise 3% to $91.2 billion as its adjusted earnings grows 1% to $7.22 per share. Those growth rates might seem anemic, but they would mark the first time its revenue and adjusted EPS rose in tandem since 2022. They also counter the bearish notion that its macro, competitive, and labor-related challenges would crush its business.
Is UPS a reliable dividend stock? UPS' adjusted EPS estimate for 2026 will easily cover its forward dividend rate of $6.56 per share. Analysts also expect its revenue and adjusted EPS to grow 4% and 12%, respectively, in 2027 as it integrates more AI features, automates its logistics, and faces fewer headwinds in a warmer macro environment. That stabilization should give it ample room to raise its dividend.
UPS isn't an exciting stock, but its future looks much brighter than it did two years ago. If it continues to grow, it could become one of the best dividend plays in the industrial sector.
Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool recommends FedEx. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
UPS loni spotřebovala na dividendu téměř všechen upravený volný peněžní tok, zatímco FedEx využil na výplatu asi 30 % hotovosti. UPS letos čeká kolem 5,4 miliardy USD na dividendách.
The yield gap starts with a cash claim. Last year, UPS’s dividend consumed nearly all of its adjusted free cash flow.
United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) has finished shrinking its Amazon business. Now it has to show what the rebuilt network can earn in cash.
Second-quarter revenue rose 7.6% to $22.8 billion. Adjusted operating profit increased 12% to $2.1 billion, and adjusted operating margin widened to 9.2% from 8.8%. UPS raised its 2026 targets to about $91.2 billion of revenue, $8.65 billion of adjusted operating profit and $7.22 of adjusted EPS.
At Wednesday’s close, UPS’s $6.56 annualized dividend yielded about 6.3%, against roughly 1.6% on FedEx’s new $4.88 rate. The question is not which carrier pays more. It is how much cash each carrier has left after paying it.
UPS Improved The Margin. Cash Still Has To Catch UpThe Q2 repair is visible in the domestic business. Revenue rose 6% even as average daily package volume fell 3.3%, because revenue per piece increased 9.3%. Domestic adjusted operating margin improved to 8% from 7%. Yet first-half adjusted operating profit fell to $3.42 billion.
UPS reported $1.2 billion of program benefits through June toward a $3 billion full-year goal. Those are not net cash savings. First-half transformation costs totaled $1.23 billion, and full-year excluded costs are guided to $1.3 billion–$1.5 billion.
The cash turn lags.
UPS generated $1.57 billion of free cash flow in the first half, up from $742 million a year earlier. The company still expects about $3 billion of capital spending and around $5.4 billion of dividend payments this year.
Seasonality favors second-half cash generation, but the comparison is demanding. In 2025, adjusted free cash flow was $5.47 billion against $5.4 billion of dividends. On that measure, the dividend absorbed roughly 99 cents of every dollar, leaving almost nothing for repurchases or debt reduction. The income statement has improved; cash must confirm the repair.
FedEx’s $13.3 Billion Cash Balance Needs A HaircutFedEx carried much wider historical coverage into its separation. Fiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow was $4.68 billion, up from $3.90 billion, while dividend payments totaled approximately $1.4 billion, or about 30% of that issuer-adjusted cash measure.
That figure predates the separation, which limits how directly it applies going forward. The current $1.22 quarterly dividend, the $4.88 annualized figure used above, applies only to the company left after Freight departed. A trailing twelve-month total would still mix in pre-reset payments and show a higher yield on public trackers; the forward rate is cleaner.
The headline cash balance overstates ordinary flexibility. Of the $13.3 billion at year-end, about $4.1 billion came from a pre-spin FedEx Freight dividend funded largely with debt, tied, FedEx said, to preserving the spin-off’s tax-free treatment before it went toward debt tender offers. Another $800 million is tariff refunds held for customers — money that was never dividend capacity to begin with.
That leaves about $8.4 billion, still substantial and a cleaner base for judging cash available to the continuing company. FedEx also cut capital spending to $3.8 billion, 4% of revenue and the lowest annual ratio in company history — a smaller dividend claim and lower capital intensity than UPS carried last year.
The Next Clean Test Starts After FreightUPS’s hurdle is measurable. Full-year free cash flow must cover about $5.4 billion of dividends, with enough left to restore real capital-allocation choice. A repeat of 2025 would cover the payout and little else.
FedEx’s hurdle is different. The denominator has changed. It has guided to $3.9 billion of calendar-2026 capital spending but has not produced a full-year free-cash-flow figure for the post-spin business. Comparing that future company against the old $1.4 billion dividend bill would mix two corporate perimeters.
FedEx’s first clean continuing-operations result will show how much of its historical coverage survived the separation. Until then, its lower yield reflects a wider demonstrated buffer, tempered by an incomplete post-spin record.
UPS offers more income after a year in which its dividend used nearly all adjusted free cash flow. FedEx offers less after a year in which the payout used about 30%, with Freight still inside the numbers. That is the yield gap. The ranking holds today — post-spin cash generation could confirm it or reverse it.
Source: UPS second-quarter 2026 earnings release (July 28, 2026), fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release and 2025 Form 10-K; FedEx fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings release and Q4 investor roadshow (June 23, 2026), historical dividend record and FedEx Freight separation disclosures. Market prices as of the July 29, 2026 close.
The author holds no position in any security mentioned. Structural research, not personalized investment advice.
For further research, read the weekly structural income letter at jungmoku.substack.com.
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UPS ve 2. čtvrtletí překonala odhady tržbami i upraveným EPS a zvýšila celoroční výhled tržeb na přibližně 91,2 mld. USD. Zároveň dokončila postupné omezování objemů od Amazonu.
Americká logistická společnost UPS zveřejnila výsledky hospodaření za druhé čtvrtletí roku 2026. Tržby i očištěný zisk na akcii překonaly odhady analytiků a společnost zvýšila celoroční výhled tržeb. UPS zároveň oznámila, že úspěšně dokončila postupné omezování objemů od Amazonu.
Výsledky společnosti UPS (UPS) za 2Q 2026 2Q 2026 Konsensus 2Q 2026 2Q 2025 Tržby (mld. USD) 22,80 21,84 21,22 Čistý zisk (mld. USD) 0,60 -- 1,28 Očištěný zisk na akcii (EPS, USD/akcie) 1,76 1,67 1,55 Výsledky za 2Q Tržby meziročně vzrostly o 7,5 % na 22,80 mld. USD a překonaly konsensus ve výši 21,84 mld. USD.
Segment U.S. Domestic Package vykázal tržby 14,93 mld. USD, meziročně +6 % (odhad: 14,41 mld. USD), taženy růstem tržeb na zásilku o 9,3 %. Provozní marže dosáhla 0,1 %, očištěná provozní marže pak 8,0 %.
Segment International Package zaznamenal tržby 5,04 mld. USD, meziročně +12,5 % (odhad: 4,67 mld. USD), díky nárůstu tržeb na zásilku o 18,9 %. Provozní marže (GAAP i očištěná) činila 12,4 %.
Segment Supply Chain Solutions dosáhl tržeb 2,86 mld. USD, meziročně +7,8 % (odhad: 2,74 mld. USD), především díky růstu v oblasti zasílatelství a logistiky, včetně zdravotnictví. Provozní marže (GAAP i očištěná) dosáhla 10,2 %.
Výhled na rok 2026 Firma zvýšila výhled pro celý rok 2026 a nyní predikuje:
Tržby přibližně 91,2 mld. USD (dříve: přibližně 89,7 mld. USD; konsensus: 90,39 mld. USD). Očištěný provozní zisk přibližně 8,65 mld. USD. Očištěný zisk na akcii přibližně 7,22 USD. Kapitálové výdaje přibližně 3,0 mld. USD (odhad: 3 mld. USD, beze změny). Komentář vedení „Chci poděkovat všem zaměstnancům UPS za mimořádnou práci za posledních 18 měsíců, kdy jsme podle plánu úspěšně dokončili postupné omezování objemů od Amazonu a související iniciativy na rekonfiguraci sítě,“ uvedla generální ředitelka UPS Carol Tomé. „Naše výsledky za druhé čtvrtletí znamenaly očekávaný a významný obrat ve výkonnosti, když jsme dosáhli růstu konsolidovaných tržeb i očištěného provozního zisku. Do druhé poloviny roku jsme vstoupili se silnou dynamikou a zvyšujeme náš celoroční výhled konsolidovaných tržeb, očištěného provozního zisku i očištěného zisku na akcii,“ dodala Tomé.
Akcie UPS Akcie UPS (UPS) v předburzovní fázi obchodování rostou o 2,06 % na 115,28 USD.
Akcie United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) včera klesly o 1,6 % na 112,95 USD Ukazatel Ukazatel Kapitalizace (mld. USD) 96,0 P/E 16,3 Vývoj za letošní rok (%) +13,9 Očekávané P/E 15,9 52týdenní minimum (USD) 82,0 Prům. cílová cena (USD) 115,8 52týdenní maximum (USD) 122,4 Dividendový výnos (%) 5,8 Zdroj: UPS, Bloomberg
UPS má v úterý před otevřením trhu oznámit hospodářské výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí 2026; analytici čekají zisk na akcii 1,66 USD a tržby 21,8581 miliardy USD.
United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS – Get Free Report) is expected to announce its Q2 2026 results before the market opens on Tuesday, July 28th. Analysts expect United Parcel Service to announce earnings of $1.66 per share and revenue of $21.8581 billion for the quarter. Parties can check the company’s upcoming Q2 2026 earning results page for the latest details on the call scheduled for Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, April 28th. The transportation company reported $1.07 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.02 by $0.05. The firm had revenue of $21.20 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $20.99 billion. United Parcel Service had a net margin of 5.94% and a return on equity of 35.95%. The business’s revenue was down 1.4% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the previous year, the firm posted $1.49 earnings per share. On average, analysts expect United Parcel Service to post $7 EPS for the current fiscal year and $8 EPS for the next fiscal year.
United Parcel Service Price Performance UPS stock opened at $114.60 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.50, a quick ratio of 1.21 and a current ratio of 1.21. The business has a 50-day simple moving average of $108.28 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $106.62. The company has a market capitalization of $97.41 billion, a P/E ratio of 18.54, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.83 and a beta of 1.05. United Parcel Service has a 52-week low of $82.00 and a 52-week high of $122.41.
United Parcel Service Dividend Announcement The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, June 4th. Stockholders of record on Monday, May 18th were issued a $1.64 dividend. This represents a $6.56 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 5.7%. The ex-dividend date was Monday, May 18th. United Parcel Service’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 106.15%.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth Several research analysts recently issued reports on the company. Citigroup lifted their target price on United Parcel Service from $127.00 to $132.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday, July 9th. Weiss Ratings upgraded United Parcel Service from a “sell (d+)” rating to a “hold (c-)” rating in a research note on Friday, July 10th. UBS Group dropped their price objective on United Parcel Service from $125.00 to $123.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Wednesday, April 29th. Evercore reduced their target price on shares of United Parcel Service from $115.00 to $113.00 and set an “in-line” rating for the company in a research note on Wednesday, April 22nd. Finally, Susquehanna raised their price target on shares of United Parcel Service from $116.00 to $118.00 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a research report on Wednesday, April 29th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seven have assigned a Buy rating, twelve have assigned a Hold rating and three have given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $111.50.
Read Our Latest Report on UPS
Institutional Trading of United Parcel Service A number of hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of UPS. AQR Capital Management LLC increased its position in shares of United Parcel Service by 175.7% in the fourth quarter. AQR Capital Management LLC now owns 5,200,135 shares of the transportation company’s stock valued at $515,801,000 after buying an additional 3,314,166 shares in the last quarter. Amundi grew its holdings in United Parcel Service by 56.9% during the 4th quarter. Amundi now owns 2,857,643 shares of the transportation company’s stock valued at $283,450,000 after buying an additional 1,036,435 shares during the last quarter. State Street Corp lifted its stake in shares of United Parcel Service by 3.3% during the fourth quarter. State Street Corp now owns 32,092,627 shares of the transportation company’s stock worth $3,183,268,000 after purchasing an additional 1,029,377 shares in the last quarter. Invesco Ltd. grew its position in shares of United Parcel Service by 17.3% during the 3rd quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 6,724,265 shares of the transportation company’s stock valued at $561,678,000 after buying an additional 993,461 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Renaissance Technologies LLC increased its stake in United Parcel Service by 160.0% in the 4th quarter. Renaissance Technologies LLC now owns 1,403,300 shares of the transportation company’s stock worth $139,193,000 after purchasing an additional 863,574 shares in the last quarter. 60.26% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.
United Parcel Service Company Profile (Get Free Report)
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) is a global package delivery and supply chain management company that provides a broad range of transportation, logistics and e-commerce services. Its core business centers on small-package delivery and last-mile distribution for business and individual customers, supported by a network of ground transportation, air cargo operations (UPS Airlines) and sorting facilities. In addition to parcel delivery, UPS offers freight transportation, contract logistics, warehousing, customs brokerage and reverse-logistics solutions designed to support domestic and international commerce.
The company traces its roots to 1907 when it began as a small messenger service in the United States and later evolved into the United Parcel Service.
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Logistické firmy včetně UPS a FedEx zvyšují investice do chlazených skladů a přepravy, aby zvládly rostoucí poptávku po GLP-1 lécích. Ty vyžadují přesnou teplotu, jinak ztrácejí účinnost.
As demand rises for specialized medications like GLP-1s, logistics companies including UPS and FedEx are adapting their strategies to be able to better ship and store those pharmaceuticals.
Most injectable GLP-1 medications, including Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound, require refrigerated storage for shipment.
The Covid pandemic put healthcare logistics at center stage in 2020, as the shipping of temperature-controlled vaccines quickly became a crucial part of keeping the virus at bay. And as more money has been poured into new pharmaceutical innovations, the transportation of those products have come under the spotlight.
Logistics companies are now investing millions of dollars and strengthening dozens of temperature-controlled facilities to tap into the market.
In June, UPS announced a new $48 million investment in temperature-controlled facilities as it sees a growing demand for critical treatments. According to Growth Market Reports, the demand for temperature-sensitive biologics is projected to grow at an 8.3% compound annual growth rate through 2033 and reach a market value of roughly $39.1 billion.
Obesity and diabetes drugs, meanwhile, have been booming in popularity. A July Gallup poll found that 11% of Americans take GLP-1 medications for weight loss purposes in 2026, up from just 3% in 2024.
But if they're not stored and shipped at the correct temperature, they risk losing their efficacy.
The Food and Drug Administration has warned that improper storage during shipping can affect the medicine's quality and recommends patients do not use GLP-1 drugs that arrive "warm or with insufficient refrigeration."
Other biologics, like some vaccines, insulin and antibiotics, also require specialized shipment to maintain efficacy. For logistics companies, that means ensuring the proper storage and movement every step of the way.
Bulking upHealthcare logistics have proven to be one of UPS' biggest opportunities. On an earnings call with analysts in April, CEO Carol Tomé said the company's global healthcare portfolio has gained market share every year since 2021, generating its first ever $3 billion healthcare revenue quarter in the first quarter of this year.
UPS President of Healthcare John Bolla told CNBC that the company is seeing more healthcare companies looking for partners to keep up with the volume.
"One of the biggest opportunities we see is supporting the shift toward more specialized therapies and more care delivered outside of traditional healthcare settings," Bolla said.
He said UPS is experiencing "rapid growth" in biologics, cell and gene therapies, though the biggest challenge is that the margin for error is small — even a brief stray from the correct temperature can ruin the medicines, Bolla said.
"But that's also what's creating such a significant opportunity in healthcare logistics," he said. "As treatments become more specialized and supply chains become more complex, healthcare companies need partners that can provide not just temperature-controlled storage or transportation, but end-to-end visibility, control and reliability across the entire network."
FedEx is also tapping into the trend, launching a life sciences organization earlier this month specifically to support the movement of pharmaceuticals and other healthcare products.
On an earnings call in June, FedEx's Chief Customer Officer Brie Carere told analysts that healthcare transportation revenue in fiscal year 2026 reached nearly $10 billion.
"We're building end-to-end solutions focused on global pharma customers, and what's so important with global pharma is that you have to recognize that there's a patient at the end of every delivery or someone that's waiting to be treated," said Nick Gennari, FedEx's president of healthcare. "So we take this very, very seriously."
With GLP-1s specifically, Gennari said there's an increasing complexity to delivering those medications, with forms ranging from injectables to oral pills and going direct-to-consumer. But with that complexity comes a growth opportunity for FedEx, which he said is "ideally positioned."
Gennari said FedEx has specialized technology, including its machine learning engine that allows customers to see product movement with predictive abilities, as well as its technology that identifies healthcare products and treats each differently depending on its unique needs.
Gennari also said he's "very comfortable" with the company's base capabilities and its plans for expansion, including cold-chain logistics.
"Much of the infrastructure that's required to be successful in this space, we already have. We have the airline; we have an incredible schedule; we have the lift capabilities. The network is hardened and works very well," he said.
Complex supply chainsC.H. Robinson told CNBC the logistics company had surpassed $1 billion in revenue in healthcare logistics alone over the past year, largely due to the growth in GLP-1 drugs, as it has been investing in temperature-controlled facilities.
"You need to really have that end-to-end connectivity, so you've got to have a really nice network and infrastructure built out in order to properly service the healthcare customers," said Ronnie Davis, the company's vice president of North American surface transportation.
Davis said the supply chain for medications has also become more complicated. In addition to requiring refrigeration, many drugs have a short shelf life and need to be delivered in precise windows of time.
"A lot of the innovation has been on getting the drugs to the market," Davis said. "I think what you're starting to see is that's really putting stress on the capabilities of the cold chain supply chains in the marketplace. … With the rise of GLP-1s and other specialized medicine, it's really creating a competitive nature for the same refrigerated supply resources that are there and, quite candidly, that supply is not unlimited, it's constrained."
Davis said C.H. Robinson is working to amp up its capabilities, especially to keep up with the higher volume. At the same time, he added, pharma companies are also trying to get creative to bring their products to market with a longer shelf life.
That innovation is also intersecting with the growth of artificial intelligence capabilities, according to Hendrik Venter, CEO of DHL Supply Chain. The logistics company uses AI to monitor critical life science products, tracking temperatures and anticipating where an issue might happen.
"You're seeing the industry moving from conventional to biopharma," Venter told CNBC. "You need to have a supply chain that is resilient and capable of shipping in all of these various temperature zones."
The company announced last year that it plans to invest 2 billion euros ($2.25 billion) in health logistics by 2030, with half of that allocated to the Americas.
A lot of pharmaceutical companies are also outsourcing their warehousing activities to DHL, Venter said. The company takes over those facilities, manages them and integrates them into the rest of their network.
DHL launched a pharmaceutical air corridor around the world, with a dedicated aircraft and connected network that ensures the drugs are not being shipped through separate regulatory environments.
"You cannot lose a shipment. You cannot replace it. It needs to be delivered on time, every time, in the right quality and temperatures," Venter said. "So we continue to selectively look at how to strengthen that network."
UPS čeká za čtvrtletí zisk 1,65 USD na akcii, tedy meziroční růst o 6,5 %, a tržby 21,75 miliardy USD, což je o 2,5 % více než loni. Odhad EPS byl za posledních 30 dní snížen o 0,2 %.
The upcoming report from United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $1.65 per share, indicating an increase of 6.5% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $21.75 billion, representing an increase of 2.5% year over year.
The current level reflects a downward revision of 0.2% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over this period.
Prior to a company's earnings announcement, it is crucial to consider revisions to earnings estimates. This serves as a significant indicator for predicting potential investor actions regarding the stock. Empirical research has consistently demonstrated a robust correlation between trends in earnings estimate revision and the short-term price performance of a stock.
While investors usually depend on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to assess the business performance for the quarter, delving into analysts' forecasts for certain key metrics often provides a more comprehensive understanding.
Given this perspective, it's time to examine the average forecasts of specific UPS metrics that are routinely monitored and predicted by Wall Street analysts.
The consensus estimate for 'Revenue- International Package- Cargo and other' stands at $174.31 million. The estimate suggests a change of +1.9% year over year.
The average prediction of analysts places 'Revenue- U.S. Domestic Package- Ground' at $10.71 billion. The estimate suggests a change of +2.1% year over year.
The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Revenue- U.S. Domestic Package- Deferred' will likely reach $1.05 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +2.3% from the prior-year quarter.
Analysts predict that the 'Revenue- U.S. Domestic Package' will reach $14.47 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +2.8%.
Analysts expect 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Total' to come in at $23.03 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $21.14 in the same quarter of the previous year.
It is projected by analysts that the 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Export' will reach 1.61 million. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 1.68 million.
According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Domestic' should come in at 1.42 million. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 1.51 million in the same quarter of the previous year.
Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Average revenue per piece - U.S. Domestic Package - Ground' should arrive at $12.34 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $11.46 in the same quarter of the previous year.
The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Average revenue per piece - U.S. Domestic Package - Total' of $14.24 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $13.03 in the same quarter last year.
Analysts' assessment points toward 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Domestic' reaching $9.31 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $8.61 in the same quarter last year.
Analysts forecast 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Export' to reach $35.14 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $32.38 in the same quarter last year.
The consensus among analysts is that 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Total' will reach 3.02 million. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 3.19 million.
View all Key Company Metrics for UPS here>>>
Shares of UPS have experienced a change of +9.1% in the past month compared to the +0.4% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), UPS is expected to mirror the overall market performance in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
UPS má za čtvrtletí končící v červnu 2026 vykázat zisk na akcii ve výši 1,65 USD a tržby 21,75 miliardy USD, tedy meziroční růst. Podle modelu Earnings ESP má UPS hodnotu +1,06 %, což naznačuje, že může konsensus v EPS překonat.
United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 28. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis package delivery service is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.65 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +6.5%.
Revenues are expected to be $21.75 billion, up 2.5% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.17% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for UPS?For UPS, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +1.06%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination indicates that UPS will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that UPS would post earnings of $1.04 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.07, delivering a surprise of +2.88%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
UPS appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
United Parcel Service (UPS +1.02%) is deeply unloved on Wall Street, with the stock down 50% from its 2022 high. To be fair, the parcel delivery company has been going through a massive business overhaul, and its quarterly earnings results have been pretty tough to read. But it is important to keep in mind what the company is doing and why. The announcement of a $48 million investment in temperature-controlled facilities highlights something big.
UPS is updating its business approach To simplify this industrial giant's turnaround effort, it is basically trying to modernize. That requires spending money to update technology, cut staffing levels, and shutter less efficient facilities. At the same time, however, UPS has been honing in on its best customers, which has required limiting its relationship with high-volume customers that offer only small profit margins.
Image source: Getty Images.
From a high-level view, this overhaul has led to lower revenue and higher costs. Which investors have clearly been worried about. However, there are early signs of success: revenue per package in the U.S. market has been rising despite lower overall revenue in the division. That's exactly the goal. Management is also calling for the second half of 2026 to be the inflection point for the turnaround effort.
UPS is building for the future UPS isn't just moving away from low-margin customers; it is also moving toward high-margin customers. One customer segment earmarked for growth is the healthcare sector. That's why UPS is spending $48 million on 27 temperature-controlled facilities. There is an increasing demand for medications that must be kept at low temperatures during the delivery process, notably including GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
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This isn't a brand new business; UPS has been using acquisitions to bolster its global position in this sector. However, the key is that healthcare customers offer wider profit margins and attractive growth opportunities. It is far more desirable to invest in moving medicine than to boost operations that just move more low-value boxes.
UPS has a huge 6% dividend yield because investors are worried about the turnaround. That's fair given recent results. But the investment in temperature-controlled facilities highlights the company's long-term strategic focus and opportunity. It is one more sign that UPS could be close to shifting from shrinking its business to growing it. And when that happens, the growth will likely be more impactful because it will come with wider profit margins.
Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
UPS investuje 48 milionů USD do 27 teplotně řízených zařízení napříč Amerikou, Evropou a Asií. Firma tím posiluje logistiku pro rychle rostoucí zdravotnické zásilky.
United Parcel Service is investing $48 million in 27 temperature‑controlled facilities as the industry sees a boom in healthcare logistics, CNBC has learned exclusively.
The facilities, located across the Americas, Europe and Asia, are optimized for moving around shipments that need to be kept at certain temperatures. The company said the investment will help it stay ahead of a boom in medicines and pharmaceuticals — like some GLP-1s — that have to be kept at certain temperatures by improving speed and end-to-end chain of custody.
"Our global cross-dock facilities strengthen our end-to-end cold-chain capabilities to ensure critical treatments are delivered safely and reliably to patients around the world," said Kate Gutmann, UPS' president of international, healthcare and supply chain solutions. "This effort – and all of our work in healthcare logistics – extends from a deep understanding that we're doing more than moving packages."
The demand for temperature-sensitive biologics is projected to grow at an 8.3% compound annual growth rate through 2033 and reach a market value of roughly $39.1 billion, according to Growth Market Reports. Many new medicines are required to be stored at specific temperatures to maintain efficacy, UPS said, making healthcare logistics more crucial than before.
According to the World Health Organization, up to 50% of global vaccines are wasted every year, with a significant portion of that coming from cold-chain storage issues.
"These investments reflect our commitment to continue to align our leading end-to-end supply chain to protect innovative treatments and diagnostics, supporting better patient outcomes," UPS Healthcare President John Bolla said in a statement.
UPS' move comes as the industry overall has seen growing investments in the space, especially with the meteoric rise of GLP-1 drugs. Medicines like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic require strict refrigeration and temperature control during transit. A November KFF poll found that 1 in 8 Americans are taking GLP-1s.
UPS CEO Carol Tomé said on the company's first-quarter earnings call in April that healthcare remains one of the company's top priorities and biggest areas of growth.
"Our global healthcare portfolio has gained market share every year since 2021," she said on the call. "And in the first quarter of this year, we generated our first $3 billion healthcare revenue quarter ever, with all three of our segments delivering year-over-year revenue growth."
Tomé added that UPS is committed to continuing to "lean into that space in a meaningful way."
