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Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) is expected to deliver a largely in-line fiscal first quarter performance, with investor attention likely to remain focused on management commentary around the highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI, according to Jefferies analysts.

Jefferies wrote that Wall Street expectations for the quarter remain muted, with bookings forecast to decline about 4% year over year, largely reflecting weakness in the company’s mobile business as several key titles slow. The analysts noted that the stock’s reaction is likely to depend more on updates around GTA VI than on the quarter itself, with potential discussion points including pre-orders and the timing of GTA VI Online.

The analysts expect limited new information on GTA VI during the earnings call, writing that disclosure of pre-order figures is unlikely and that Take-Two is unlikely to adjust its fiscal 2027 outlook.

The analysts highlighted that mobile trends weakened during the quarter, based on Sensor Tower in-app purchase data, including softness across the company’s three largest mobile titles. Jefferies wrote that the company’s first-quarter mobile revenue guidance already reflects much of this pressure, with Street expectations calling for a mid-single-digit percentage decline year over year.

The analysts added that mobile advertising trends and shifts toward web-based payments are unlikely to provide a meaningful offset, and said they would look for commentary on whether the slowdown reflects reduced marketing investment or broader demand issues.

Take-Two’s NBA 2K franchise is expected to perform in line with expectations despite a challenging comparison period, Jefferies wrote. The analysts noted that the company’s guidance for high-single-digit revenue growth in the segment is supported by early engagement trends, including Steam concurrent users during the NBA playoffs that were significantly higher than at the game’s launch last year.

Meanwhile, Jefferies expects Grand Theft Auto Online revenue to face pressure in the first quarter due to timing differences around major content updates. The analysts wrote that the large summer GTA Online update arrived in July this year compared with June last year, creating a difficult year-over-year comparison, though engagement trends remain stable heading into GTA VI.

“Overall trends appear stable into GTA VI,” Jefferies wrote, noting that Steam concurrent users for GTA Online increased significantly following the latest update, while anticipation around the next installment continues to build.

The analysts maintained that expectations remain for GTA VI to generate a strong initial launch, with more than 40 million units forecast for fiscal 2027. Jefferies identified the timing and scope of GTA VI Online as the biggest outstanding question, noting that a delay into calendar 2027 could weigh on long-term player retention.

Jefferies also pointed to broader industry shifts as supportive of Take-Two’s strategy, highlighting changes across gaming platforms toward fewer, larger content releases. The analysts wrote that PlayStation’s move away from physical discs and Xbox’s shift away from subscription-focused models toward a “fewer, bigger, better” content approach align with Take-Two’s long-term strategy.

The analysts maintained their ‘Buy’ rating and $300 price target, above current levels of about $238, noting that they expect the stock to continue trading higher into the game’s release.

Take-Two will report its Q1 earnings on August 7.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) shares could see a stronger long-term monetization profile from the next iteration of Grand Theft Auto Online (GTAO), according to Bank of America, which raised its price objective on the stock and upgraded its forward bookings assumptions for the franchise.

Bank of America reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Take-Two and raised its price objective to $368, based on a 26x multiple applied to its FY28 earnings estimate. The firm characterized this as a peak valuation scenario, with potential for further upward revisions if GTAO monetization exceeds expectations.

The firm increased its financial year 2028 GTAO bookings forecast by roughly $900 million to $2.2 billion, lifting its assumed annual revenue per monthly active user (MAU) to $60 from $35 previously.

The revision reflects expectations that the next version of GTAO could monetize at nearly twice the rate of its predecessor, narrowing the gap with leading live-service titles such as Fortnite.

The analysts argued that GTAO currently under-monetizes relative to comparable franchises, and expect the next installment to close that disparity as its “pay-to-progress” structure encourages higher average player spending than Fortnite’s cosmetics-driven model. Bank of America also noted that Grand Theft Auto VI’s player base is likely to carry higher lifetime value than the broader free-to-play audience seen in other major live-service ecosystems.

At the high end of the estimate range, the firm pointed to monetization levels above $100 per MAU in heavily “pay-to-win” sports titles, suggesting additional upside if engagement trends skew more aggressively toward in-game spending.

Bank of America left its financial year 2027 estimates unchanged, citing a likely late-year ramp for GTAO’s contribution. It now forecasts financial year 2028 net bookings of $10.7 billion and earnings per share of $14.23.

Beyond revenue assumptions, the report highlighted structural improvements at Rockstar that could support stronger monetization. These include a more robust content pipeline, enhanced anti-cheat systems, and a substantially larger live-service team, expanded to more than 100 staff compared with roughly 10 at GTAO’s 2013 launch. The analysts believes that these changes address early limitations that previously constrained long-term engagement and spending.

The bank’s analysts also suggested that GTAO’s current iteration, which generates an estimated $400 million in annual bookings versus a peak of around $700 million in 2021, underscores the room for growth in a more modernized live-service framework.

Bank of America estimates that the next GTAO could support more than 40 million sustainable MAUs, potentially placing it among the largest live-service franchises globally, behind only Fortnite.

Take-Two shares traded up 2% at $244 on Tuesday afternoon.