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The Trade Desk (Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD))'s upcoming print does not look compelling in either direction, according to analysts at Jefferies, who warned that structural challenges are likely to persist regardless of the outcome of the company's dispute with Publicis.

The brokerage said it is modeling second-quarter revenue growth of 8% year-over-year, in line with Street estimates, though it would not rule out a typical beat of around 2%.

Jefferies noted the second-quarter guide likely already reflects a full quarter of impact from the Publicis dispute, which began in mid-March, and that 8% year-over-year growth implies just 9% quarter-over-quarter growth, well below the 13%, 19% and 21% quarter-over-quarter growth Trade Desk posted in the second quarters of 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

For the third quarter, Jefferies is modeling 9% year-over-year growth, also in line with the Street, and called the guide a possible swing factor given the Publicis resolution and new go-to-market leadership. The firm said Street estimates for the third quarter imply 7% quarter-over-quarter growth, consistent with typical seasonality, and that the Publicis resolution along with modest political ad spend could drive upside.

At the same time, Jefferies said it has limited visibility into the concessions made to secure the Publicis resolution and is watching whether recent leadership hires, including a new chief business development officer, chief commercial officer and vice president of client strategy, create near-term disruption to the go-to-market organization.

Looking further out, Jefferies said Street estimates for 2027 revenue growth of 9.4%, roughly stable versus 9.8% in 2026, look aggressive given ongoing structural headwinds, including potential take-rate pressure, risk of incremental share loss and a tougher comparison against this year's political spending tailwind. The firm said stable growth is harder to sustain on a larger revenue base, with two-year growth trends yet to find a floor.

Jefferies pointed to competitive pressure from Amazon as a continuing risk, citing potential take-rate compression and share loss at a time when overall brand budget growth is slowing and spending continues to shift toward performance channels.

The firm also cited reports of declining open web publisher traffic as a potential structural headwind to Trade Desk's non-CTV business, and said it views competitive and operational pressures as stickier than management's more cyclical characterization.

Jefferies lowered its 2027 revenue estimate by 2% and its 2027 EBITDA estimate by 3% to approximately $1.4 billion, in line with the Street.

Enabling integration of purchase data from approximately 28 million 7-Eleven App members on the DSP

, /PRNewswire/ -- The Trade Desk (Nasdaq: TTD), a global leader in advertising technology, today announced the integration of retail purchase data from SEVEN-ELEVEN JAPAN CO., LTD. (hereinafter "SEJ") into The Trade Desk platform, enabling advertisers to programmatically activate SEJ's retail purchase data across digital channels through The Trade Desk platform. The capability is now available to all advertisers in Japan. This represents one of the leading examples in Japan of integrating SEJ's purchase data with a DSP.

This integration enables advertisers to activate high-quality data at scale across digital channels on the open internet, including over‑the‑top (OTT), connected TV (CTV), audio, and display, representing an important step forward in Japan's retail media landscape.

Through this initiative, advertisers can seamlessly access and activate audience segments built from purchase data-driven insight based on the purchase behavior of approximately 28 million 7-Eleven App members directly within The Trade Desk platform. SEJ operates Japan's largest convenience store network, with around 22,000 stores nationwide and approximately 20 million daily visitors.[1] The integration enables activation of always-on audience segments — including demographic and high-demand purchase-based audiences — built from a wide range of product categories. Audience segments are curated based on advertiser needs using up to one year of purchase history (ID-POS data), enabling more precise audience targeting across omnichannel campaigns.

This collaboration addresses a longstanding challenge in Japan, where access to high-quality retail data has historically been fragmented and operationally complex. Through API integration with the platform, SEJ's data is regularly refreshed and made available within The Trade Desk platform, enabling advertisers to plan, activate, and optimize campaigns with greater efficiency and reduced operational complexity.

At the core of this integration is The Trade Desk's AI-driven platform, which transforms retail purchase signals into structured, scalable audience intelligence— bridging the gap between data access and real-time activation across channels. This enables advertisers to not only identify the right audiences, but to continuously refine and optimize how those audiences are reached, driving performance across the open internet.

"Japan's retail media ecosystem is entering a new phase," said Kei Majima, General Manager, Japan, The Trade Desk. "We are excited to bring this initiative to market, expanding access to one of Japan's most extensive retail data offerings for omnichannel advertising. As the industry evolves, the ability to programmatically activate high-quality data will be critical to driving performance and accountability in digital advertising. By integrating high-quality purchase data from SEJ, one of Japan's largest convenience store chains, directly into our platform, advertisers can now engage audiences more precisely and efficiently across channels, helping to unlock the full potential of retail data for advertisers in Japan."

Key Benefits for Advertisers

High-Fidelity Audience Segments: Access audience segments built on a wide range of product categories and up to one year of purchase history, enabling more precise demographic and purchase-based targeting. Custom Audience Capabilities: Collaborate with SEJ to build and activate audience segments tailored to specific brands for more precise targeting. Omnichannel Activation: Apply retail data across digital channels via The Trade Desk platform for flexible, scalable campaigns. AI-Powered Audience Activation & Optimization: Transform retail purchase data into scalable audiences that can be activated across channels and continuously refined using AI to improve campaign performance over time. Advancing Retail Media Infrastructure in Japan
This initiative reflects a broader evolution in Japan's retail data landscape—from fragmented, one-off data use to always-on, infrastructure-driven approaches that enable scalable and continuous audience engagement. Historically, retail data activation relied on custom integrations that limited continuous campaign execution. With this integration, SEJ's data can now be continuously refreshed and activated in real time, enabling advertisers to improve audience targeting accuracy and advertising performance in a privacy conscious manner.

As global retail data evolves toward greater standardization, enabling secure, scalable data use has become a key industry priority. This data integration signals a growing focus in Japan on not only protecting data but also enabling its responsible and effective utilization. Through this initiative, The Trade Desk and SEJ provide a practical model for how high-quality retail data can be applied at scale, demonstrating how infrastructure and privacy-conscious design can support more effective retail data activation at scale.

[1] Figures as of the end of May 2026

About The Trade Desk
The Trade Desk™ is a technology company that empowers buyers of advertising. Through its self-service, cloud-based platform, ad buyers can create, manage, and optimize digital advertising campaigns across ad formats and devices. Integrations with major data, inventory, and publisher partners ensure maximum reach and decisioning capabilities, and enterprise APIs enable custom development on top of the platform. Headquartered in Ventura, CA, The Trade Desk has offices across North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. To learn more, visit thetradedesk.com or follow us on Facebook, X, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Media Contact

Jason Wang
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SOURCE The Trade Desk

Shares of The Trade Desk (TTD 1.25%) were slumping again last month after the leading independent demand-side adtech platform (DSP) got swept up in the broader sell-off in software stocks as investors continue to doubt its growth potential amid rapidly deteriorating sales growth.

Perhaps, the worst news for the company was that Chief Revenue Officer Anders Mortenson was asked to leave the company after just seven months, a sign of disarray and the challenges The Trade Desk is facing.

While there were some positive news items, the overall trend was negative, and the stock finished the month down 16%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

As you can see from the chart below, the stock fell in the first half of the month and remained down afterward.

TTD data by YCharts

What's happening with The Trade Desk The Trade Desk is facing pressure from AI disruption, but it's less from start-ups like Anthropic and more from entrenched tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms that are using AI automation tools to enhance their "walled gardens." Those three companies are the biggest digital ad platforms in the world, and are all outgrowing The Trade Desk, showing that they're taking market share from the adtech company.

Despite the pullback in the stock, there was some good news for The Trade Desk. The company reportedly settled its dispute with Publicis, one of the world's largest ad agency holding companies. Months ago, Publicis had told its clients to stop working with The Trade Desk after an audit showed unscrupulous practices such as improper billing, though that should no longer be a concern for investors.

The merger between Fox and Roku also seemed like a potential tailwind for The Trade Desk, and Benchmark reiterated a buy rating on the stock and a $30 price target, saying The Trade Desk is "critically important" to both Fox and Roku.

Image source: Getty Images.

What's next for The Trade Desk The Trade Desk is up 5% in July so far, gaining after a report in Bloomberg that said that Criteo, another adtech firm, was a buyout target for some private equity firms.

If there's a silver lining in the stock's collapse over the last year-and-a-half, it's that The Trade Desk is reasonably valued now at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 22, and it's solidly profitable. However, revenue growth is expected to fall below 10% in the current quarter and stay there.

If that doesn't change, it's hard to see the stock making a meaningful comeback.

Jeremy Bowman has positions in Amazon, Meta Platforms, Roku, and The Trade Desk. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Roku, and The Trade Desk. The Motley Fool recommends Criteo. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.